KeyCorp (KEY) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to KeyCorp's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加 KeyCorp 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to the Chairman and CEO, Chris Gorman. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給董事長兼首席執行官克里斯·戈爾曼。請繼續。

Thank you for joining us for KeyCorp's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Clark Khayat, our Chief Financial Officer; and Mark Midkiff, our Chief Risk Officer.

感謝您參加 KeyCorp 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席財務官 Clark Khayat；以及我們的首席風險官馬克·米德基夫 (Mark Midkiff)。

On Slide 2, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosure and certain financial measures, including non-GAAP measures. These statements cover our presentation materials and comments as well as the question-and-answer segment of our call.

在幻燈片 2 上，您將找到我們關於前瞻性披露和某些財務指標（包括非公認會計原則指標）的聲明。這些聲明涵蓋了我們的演示材料和評論以及我們電話會議的問答部分。

I am now moving to Slide 3. Before Clark covers our quarterly earnings results, I want to discuss our strategic priorities and cover the fundamental strengths of our businesses, which continue to perform well despite the challenging operating environment. In our Consumer Bank, we're growing relationship households at an annualized rate of 5%, consistent with our Investor Day target. Our strongest growth continues to be in the West, driven by younger clients.

我現在轉向幻燈片 3。在克拉克介紹我們的季度收益結果之前，我想討論一下我們的戰略重點並介紹我們業務的基本優勢，儘管運營環境充滿挑戰，但我們的業務仍然表現良好。在我們的消費者銀行，我們的關係家庭以年化 5% 的速度增長，這與我們的投資者日目標一致。在年輕客戶的推動下，我們最強勁的增長仍然是在西方。

We have also experienced strong growth in wealth management with double-digit year-over-year growth in asset management sales.

我們的財富管理業務也實現了強勁增長，資產管理銷售額同比增長兩位數。

In our Commercial business, we continue to add and expand relationships through our integrated commercial and investment bank. Our ability to distribute risk serves us well and importantly, serves our clients well through all market conditions. This quarter, we raised $25 billion of capital for our clients, placing 18% of the capital raised on our balance sheet. This is down significantly from the 30% we placed on our balance sheet last quarter. Although capital markets remain challenged, our pipelines are solid. On a year-to-date basis, our M&A revenue is up from the first half of 2022. We expect investment banking fees to be up in the second half of the year.

在我們的商業業務中，我們繼續通過綜合商業和投資銀行增加和擴大關係。我們分散風險的能力對我們很有幫助，重要的是，在所有市場條件下都能很好地為我們的客戶提供服務。本季度，我們為客戶籌集了 250 億美元的資金，其中 18% 的資金計入我們的資產負債表。這比我們上季度資產負債表上的 30% 顯著下降。儘管資本市場仍然面臨挑戰，但我們的渠道很穩固。年初至今，我們的併購收入較 2022 年上半年有所增長。我們預計下半年投資銀行費用將有所上升。

One common theme across our franchises are long-standing strategic commitment to primacy, having our clients' primary operating account, whether it's an individual or a business. Our focus on primacy is reflected in the quality and diversity of our deposit base. Nearly 60% of our deposits are from retail, small business, wealth and escrow accounts. 80% of our commercial balances are core operating accounts. Further, 97% of our total commercial deposits are from our relationship clients.

我們特許經營的一個共同主題是對首要地位的長期戰略承諾，擁有客戶的主要運營賬戶，無論是個人還是企業。我們對首要地位的關注體現在我們存款基礎的質量和多樣性上。我們近 60% 的存款來自零售、小型企業、財富和託管賬戶。我們 80% 的商業餘額是核心運營賬戶。此外，我們商業存款總額的 97% 來自我們的關係客戶。

Importantly, these are long-standing relationships. On average, our retail clients have been clients of Key for over 20 years and on average, our commercial clients for over 15 years. This quarter, our period-end deposits increased by $1 billion. Additionally, we've seen continued growth in the month of July. In the appendix of our presentation, you can find additional detail regarding the quality and diversity of our deposit base.

重要的是，這些都是長期存在的關係。平均而言，我們的零售客戶成為 Key 的客戶已超過 20 年，商業客戶平均成為 Key 的客戶已超過 15 年。本季度，我們的期末存款增加了10億美元。此外，我們還看到 7 月份的持續增長。在我們演示文稿的附錄中，您可以找到有關我們存款基礎的質量和多樣性的更多詳細信息。

We continue to proactively manage through volatility as it relates to the macroeconomic environment, the interest rate cycle and potential regulatory changes impacting our industry. Going forward, Key will benefit from a well-defined net interest income opportunity over the next 18 months. As our short-term swaps and treasuries reprice, we will see a net interest income benefit that will reach approximately $900 million on an annual basis by the first quarter of 2025.

我們繼續積極應對與宏觀經濟環境、利率週期和影響我們行業的潛在監管變化有關的波動性。展望未來，Key 將受益於未來 18 個月明確的淨利息收入機會。隨著我們的短期掉期和國債重新定價，到 2025 年第一季度，我們將看到每年的淨利息收入收益將達到約 9 億美元。

We also continue to be proactive from both a balance sheet optimization and capital allocation perspective. We are well positioned to build capital and reduce risk-weighted assets. We will continue to prioritize full relationships and exit nonrelationship business and nonstrategic assets.

我們還繼續從資產負債表優化和資本配置的角度積極主動。我們有能力積累資本並減少風險加權資產。我們將繼續優先考慮全面關係，並退出非關係業務和非戰略資產。

In the second quarter, our period-end loan balances declined by $1 billion. We will continue to benefit from our strong fee-based businesses, which make up over 40% of our revenue. As capital markets normalize, we will utilize our differentiated platform, driving fee income and naturally reducing our balance sheet.

第二季度，我們的期末貸款餘額減少了 10 億美元。我們將繼續受益於我們強大的收費業務，該業務占我們收入的 40% 以上。隨著資本市場正常化，我們將利用我們的差異化平台，增加費用收入並自然減少我們的資產負債表。

On the capital front, we will benefit as over 44% of our AOCI will roll down over the next 18 months.

在資本方面，我們將從中受益，因為超過 44% 的 AOCI 將在未來 18 個月內縮減。

The next area I would like to discuss is our exposure to credit in the current environment. Credit losses remained relatively low across the industry. But as we move through the business cycle, asset quality will matter. Today, more than half of our C&I loans are investment grade and over 70% of our consumer originations have a FICO score of 760 or greater. These measures reflect the derisking of our portfolio over the past decade in concert with our underwrite to distribute model.

我想討論的下一個領域是我們在當前環境下的信貸風險。整個行業的信貸損失仍然相對較低。但當我們經歷商業周期時，資產質量將變得至關重要。如今，我們一半以上的工商業貸款屬於投資級貸款，超過 70% 的消費者貸款的 FICO 分數為 760 或更高。這些措施反映了過去十年我們投資組合的去風險化與我們的承銷分銷模式相一致。

We have limited exposure to leveraged lending, office loans and other high-risk categories. B and C class office exposure in Central Business Districts totaled $121 million. 2/3 of our commercial real estate exposure is in multifamily, including affordable housing, which continues to be a significant unmet need in this country. We also continue to benefit from insights gained from our third-party commercial real estate servicing business as we service over $630 billion of [office] real estate exposure.

我們對槓桿貸款、辦公貸款和其他高風險類別的敞口有限。中央商務區的 B 級和 C 級寫字樓投資總額為 1.21 億美元。我們 2/3 的商業房地產投資是多戶住宅，包括經濟適用房，這仍然是這個國家未滿足的重大需求。我們還繼續從第三方商業房地產服務業務中獲得的見解中受益，因為我們為超過 6,300 億美元的[辦公]房地產業務提供服務。

Finally, we will continue to focus on improving productivity and efficiency. Our results this quarter reflect the successful completion earlier this year of a company-wide effort to improve efficiency. Actions completed in the first quarter represented over 4% of our expense base and $200 million in annualized benefit. These efforts remain ongoing as we will identify new opportunities to improve both productivity and efficiency.

最後，我們將繼續專注於提高生產力和效率。我們本季度的業績反映了今年早些時候全公司範圍內提高效率的努力的成功完成。第一季度完成的行動占我們費用基礎的 4% 以上，年化收益為 2 億美元。這些努力仍在繼續，因為我們將尋找提高生產力和效率的新機會。

Before turning the call over to Clark, I want to take a step back. This quarter, we strategically built capital, managed the size of our balance sheet and for the third consecutive quarter, built our allowance for credit losses. As I covered earlier, we will continue to take steps to manage our level of risk-weighted assets in consideration of anticipated regulatory changes.

在將電話轉給克拉克之前，我想退一步。本季度，我們戰略性地建立了資本，管理了資產負債表的規模，並連續第三個季度建立了信貸損失準備金。正如我之前提到的，我們將繼續採取措施，根據預期的監管變化來管理我們的風險加權資產水平。

I will close by affirming my confidence in the long-term outlook for our business. We have a durable relationship-based business model that will continue to serve our clients, our prospects and deliver value to our shareholders.

最後，我將重申我對我們業務的長期前景充滿信心。我們擁有基於持久關係的業務模式，將繼續為我們的客戶、我們的前景提供服務，並為我們的股東創造價值。

With that, I'll turn it over to Clark to provide more details on the results for the quarter. Clark?

這樣，我會將其轉交給克拉克，以提供有關本季度業績的更多詳細信息。克拉克？

Thanks, Chris. I'm now on Slide 5. For the second quarter, net income from continuing operations was $0.27 per common share down $0.03 from the prior quarter and down $0.27 from last year, driven in part by 2 notable items. Our results included $87 million of additional post-tax provision expense in excess of net charge-offs or $0.09 per share as we continue to build our reserves. We also incurred $21 million of notable post-tax expenses or $0.02 per share. This includes severance costs, refunds on fees and related claims and a Visa Class B fair value adjustment.

謝謝，克里斯。我現在看到的是幻燈片 5。第二季度，持續經營業務的淨利潤為每股普通股 0.27 美元，比上一季度下降 0.03 美元，比去年下降 0.27 美元，部分原因是兩個值得注意的項目。隨著我們繼續建立準備金，我們的業績包括超過淨沖銷或每股 0.09 美元的額外稅後撥備費用 8700 萬美元。我們還產生了 2100 萬美元的顯著稅後費用，即每股 0.02 美元。這包括遣散費、費用退款和相關索賠以及 B 類簽證公允價值調整。

Turning to Slide 6. Average loans for the quarter were $120.7 billion, up 11% from the year ago period and up less than 1% from the prior quarter as we continue to support relationship clients. Commercial loans increased 12% from the year ago quarter. Relative to the same period, consumer loans increased 7%. Compared with the first quarter of 2023, commercial loans grew 1%, while consumer loans remained relatively stable. Total loans ended the period at $119 billion, down $1 billion from the prior quarter.

轉向幻燈片 6。本季度平均貸款為 1,207 億美元，比去年同期增長 11%，比上一季度增長不到 1%，因為我們繼續支持關係客戶。商業貸款較去年同期增長 12%。相對於同期，消費貸款增長7%。與2023年第一季度相比，商業貸款增長1%，而消費貸款保持相對穩定。期末貸款總額為 1,190 億美元，比上一季度減少 10 億美元。

Continuing on to Slide 7. Key's long-standing commitment to primacy continues to support a stable, diverse base of core deposits for funding. Our total cost of deposits was 149 basis points in Q2 and our cumulative deposit beta was 39% since the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022. We remain focused on balance sheet management with an eye toward minimizing the total cost of funds.

繼續幻燈片 7。Key 對首要地位的長期承諾繼續支持穩定、多樣化的核心存款融資基礎。第二季度我們的總存款成本為 149 個基點，自美聯儲 2022 年 3 月開始加息以來，我們的累計存款貝塔值為 39%。我們仍然專注於資產負債表管理，著眼於最大限度地降低資金總成本。

Average deposits totaled $142.9 billion for the second quarter of 2023, down 3% from the year ago period and were relatively stable across the quarter, down approximately $500 million on average. Year-over-year, we saw declines in retail deposits, driven by elevated spend due to inflation, normalization from elevated pandemic levels and changing client behavior due to higher rates. The decrease in average deposit balances from the prior quarter reflects a continuation of the same trends.

2023 年第二季度平均存款總額為 1,429 億美元，同比下降 3%，整個季度相對穩定，平均下降約 5 億美元。與去年同期相比，我們看到零售存款下降，原因是通貨膨脹導致支出增加、流行病水平升高導致正常化以及利率上升導致客戶行為改變。平均存款餘額較上季度下降反映了相同趨勢的延續。

Regular seasonal outflows that we saw in April were more than offset in May and June. Deposits ended the period at $145.1 billion, up $1 billion from the prior quarter.

我們在 4 月份看到的常規季節性資金流出在 5 月和 6 月被抵消了很多。期末存款為 1,451 億美元，比上一季度增加 10 億美元。

Turning to Slide 8. Taxable equivalent net interest income was $986 million for the second quarter compared with $1.1 billion in the year ago and prior quarters, down approximately 11% against both periods. Our net interest margin was 2.12% for the second quarter compared to 2.61% for the same period last year and 2.47% for the prior quarter.

轉向幻燈片 8。第二季度的應稅等值淨利息收入為 9.86 億美元，而去年同期和前幾個季度的應稅等值淨利息收入為 11 億美元，比這兩個時期下降了約 11%。我們第二季度的淨息差為 2.12%，去年同期為 2.61%，上一季度為 2.47%。

Year-over-year, net interest income and the net interest margin were impacted by higher interest-bearing deposit costs, a shift in funding mix to higher cost deposits and growth in wholesale borrowings, which in part supported elevated cash levels. The decline in net interest income was partially offset by higher yields on loans and investments.

與去年同期相比，淨利息收入和淨息差受到計息存款成本上升、融資結構向成本較高的存款的轉變以及批發借款增長的影響，這在一定程度上支撐了現金水平的上升。淨利息收入的下降被貸款和投資收益率的上升部分抵消。

Relative to the first quarter, our net interest margin was negatively impacted by 28 basis points related to higher interest-bearing deposit costs and 17 basis points from a change in funding mix and liquidity, partly offset by 10 basis points related to higher earning asset yields and earning asset growth. Our swap portfolio and short-dated treasuries reduced net interest income by $340 million and lowered our net interest margin by 73 basis points this quarter.

與第一季度相比，我們的淨息差受到生息存款成本上升導致的 28 個基點的負面影響，以及融資結構和流動性變化導致的 17 個基點的負面影響，但部分被生息資產收益率上升和生息資產增長帶來的 10 個基點所抵消。本季度，我們的掉期投資組合和短期國債使淨利息收入減少了 3.4 億美元，並將淨息差降低了 73 個基點。

Turning to Slide 9. As previously mentioned, Key has begun to benefit from the maturity of our short-dated swap book, and expects to begin to benefit more significantly from increasing swap and treasury maturities as we move forward. Based on the forward curve, we continue to expect a meaningful benefit, currently estimated at $900 million annualized in the first quarter of 2025.

轉向幻燈片 9。如前所述，Key 已開始從我們的短期掉期賬簿的成熟度中受益，並預計隨著我們的進展，將開始從增加的掉期賬和國庫券到期日中獲得更顯著的收益。根據遠期曲線，我們繼續預計將產生有意義的效益，目前估計 2025 年第一季度的年化收益將達到 9 億美元。

We have continued to take a measured but opportunistic approach to lock in this potential benefit, and this analysis includes the addition of hedging activity undertaken beginning in 4Q '22 and since. We have not and do not plan to replace the swaps rolling off in 2023, instead allowing the natural asset sensitivity of the loan book to come through and benefit from higher short-term rates.

我們繼續採取審慎但機會主義的方法來鎖定這一潛在收益，並且此分析包括增加從 22 年第四季度及此後開始進行的對沖活動。我們沒有、也不打算更換 2023 年推出的掉期，而是讓貸款賬簿的自然資產敏感性發揮作用，並從更高的短期利率中受益。

Moving to Slide 10. Noninterest income was $609 million for the second quarter of 2023 compared to $688 million for the year ago period and $608 million in the first quarter. The decline in noninterest income from the year ago period reflects a $29 million decline in investment banking and debt placement fees, reflecting lower advisory and syndication fees.

轉到幻燈片 10。2023 年第二季度的非利息收入為 6.09 億美元，去年同期為 6.88 億美元，第一季度為 6.08 億美元。非利息收入較上年同期下降反映出投資銀行和債務配售費用減少了 2,900 萬美元，反映出諮詢和銀團費用的下降。

Additionally, service charges on deposit accounts declined $27 million, reflecting previously announced and implemented changes in our NSF/OD fee structure and lower account analysis fees related to higher interest rates. The decline in noninterest income from the first quarter reflects a $25 million decline in investment banking and debt placement driven by lower advisory and syndication fees, partially offset by a $10 million increase in corporate services income, reflecting an increase in customer derivatives activity.

此外，存款賬戶的服務費下降了 2700 萬美元，反映出之前宣布並實施的 NSF/OD 費用結構的變化以及與較高利率相關的賬戶分析費的降低。第一季度非利息收入的下降反映出諮詢和銀團費用下降導致投資銀行和債務配售業務減少了 2500 萬美元，但企業服務收入增加了 1000 萬美元，部分抵消了這一損失，反映出客戶衍生品活動的增加。

I'm now on Slide 11. Total noninterest expense for the quarter was $1.076 billion, down $2 million from the year ago period and down $100 million from last quarter. Compared with the year ago quarter, net occupancy expense decreased $13 million, reflecting a downsizing of corporate facilities, and business service and professional fees decreased $11 million. These decreases were partially offset by a $17 million increase in technology expense and a $15 million increase in personnel expense, reflecting merit increases and higher benefit costs.

我現在看到的是幻燈片 11。該季度的非利息支出總額為 10.76 億美元，比去年同期減少 200 萬美元，比上季度減少 1 億美元。與去年同期相比，淨佔用費用減少了 1,300 萬美元，反映出公司設施規模的縮小，商業服務和專業費用減少了 1,100 萬美元。這些減少被技術費用增加 1,700 萬美元和人員費用增加 1,500 萬美元部分抵消，反映出績效增加和福利成本增加。

Compared to the prior quarter, personnel expense decreased $79 million, reflecting lower incentive, stock-based compensation and severance. Additionally, other expense decreased $24 million in the second quarter as the first quarter included restructuring charges related to expense actions.

與上一季度相比，人員費用減少了 7900 萬美元，反映出激勵、股票薪酬和遣散費的減少。此外，由於第一季度包括與費用行動相關的重組費用，第二季度其他費用減少了 2400 萬美元。

Moving now to Slide 12. Overall credit quality remains solid. For the second quarter, net charge-offs were $52 million or 17 basis points of average loans. Delinquencies across portfolio has remained relatively stable. Our provision for credit losses was (technical difficulty) for the second quarter, which as we have pointed out, exceeded net charge (technical difficulty) or $87 million after tax. The excess provision increases our allowance for credit losses to 1.49% of period-end loans. Despite the increase in the allowance, our outlook for net charge-offs remains well below our through-the-cycle targeted level of 40 to 60 basis points.

現在轉到幻燈片 12。總體信用質量仍然穩定。第二季度，淨沖銷額為 5,200 萬美元，相當於平均貸款的 17 個基點。整個投資組合的拖欠率保持相對穩定。我們第二季度的信貸損失準備金為（技術難度），正如我們所指出的，超過了淨費用（技術難度）或稅後 8700 萬美元。超額撥備將我們的信用損失準備金提高至期末貸款的 1.49%。儘管準備金有所增加，但我們對淨沖銷的前景仍遠低於我們 40 至 60 個基點的整個週期目標水平。

Now on to Slide 13. We ended the second quarter with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 9.2%, up from the prior quarter and within our targeted range of 9% to 9.5%. This provides us with sufficient capacity to continue to support our relationship customers and their needs. We did not complete any open market share repurchases (technical difficulty) employee compensation, nor do we expect to engage into [material] share repurchases in the near term.

現在看幻燈片 13。第二季度結束時，我們的普通股一級資本比率為 9.2%，高於上一季度，處於 9% 至 9.5% 的目標範圍內。這使我們有足夠的能力繼續支持我們的關係客戶及其需求。我們沒有完成任何公開市場股票回購（技術難度）員工薪酬，也不期望在短期內進行[重大]股票回購。

We will continue to focus our capital and supporting relationship client activity and paying dividends. On the right side of the slide is the expected reduction in our AOCI mark. The AOCI mark declines by approximately 44% by the end of 2024 and 55% by the end of 2025. In alignment with recent public remarks from regulators, we expect that any changes will be implemented with an appropriate comment and phase-in period.

我們將繼續集中資金支持關係客戶活動並支付股息。幻燈片右側是 AOCI 分數的預期下降。到 2024 年底，AOCI 標記將下降約 44%，到 2025 年底將下降 55%。根據監管機構最近的公開言論，我們預計任何變更都將在適當的評論和分階段實施期間實施。

Given that, our view is that for any new requirements or reduction in AOCI marks and, more significantly, our future earnings and balance sheet management would allow us to organically accrete capital to the required levels over the necessary period.

鑑於此，我們的觀點是，對於 AOCI 分數的任何新要求或減少，更重要的是，我們未來的收益和資產負債表管理將使我們能夠在必要的時期內有機地將資本增加到所需的水平。

Slide 14 provides an outlook for the third and fourth quarter of 2023. Third and fourth quarter guidance is given relative to each prior quarter, respectively. Similar to our approach in the third quarter of last year, we have shifted our guidance to focus on quarterly results. This provides a clearest view of trends heading into year-end using the forward curve as of July 1. Balance sheet trends are tracking mostly as anticipated. We expect average loans to be down 1% to 3% in both the third and fourth quarter versus the prior quarter as we continue to actively manage our balance sheet and recycle capital to support relationship clients.

幻燈片 14 提供了 2023 年第三和第四季度的展望。第三和第四季度的指導分別是相對於之前每個季度給出的。與我們去年第三季度的做法類似，我們已將指導轉向關注季度業績。使用截至 7 月 1 日的遠期曲線，可以最清晰地了解進入年底的趨勢。資產負債表趨勢基本符合預期。我們預計第三季度和第四季度的平均貸款將比上一季度下降 1% 至 3%，因為我們將繼續積極管理資產負債表並回收資本以支持關係客戶。

We expect average deposits to be relatively stable in both the third and fourth quarter versus prior periods. Our outlook assumes a cumulative deposit beta approaching 50 by year-end. On a linked-quarter basis, net interest income is expected to decline 4% to 6% in the third quarter and be flat to down 2% in the fourth quarter. As we drive more benefit from the repricing of our swaps and treasuries in 2024, we expect growth in both our net interest income and net interest margin.

我們預計第三季度和第四季度的平均存款與前期相比相對穩定。我們的展望假設到年底累積存款貝塔值接近 50。環比計算，第三季度淨利息收入預計下降4%至6%，第四季度持平至下降2%。隨著 2024 年我們從掉期和國債重新定價中獲得更多收益，我們預計淨利息收入和淨息差都會增長。

Our guidance assumes a Fed funds rate reaching 5.5% in the third quarter, remaining flat through year-end. These interest rate assumptions, along with our expectations for customer behavior and the competitive pricing environment, are very fluid and will continue to impact our outlook prospectively.

我們的指導假設聯邦基金利率在第三季度達到 5.5%，到年底保持不變。這些利率假設以及我們對客戶行為和競爭性定價環境的預期非常不穩定，並將繼續影響我們的前景。

Noninterest income is estimated to be up 2% to 4% in the third quarter and up 4% to 6% in the fourth quarter versus prior periods, reflecting a gradual improvement in capital markets. Noninterest expense is expected to remain relatively stable in both the third and fourth quarters. We assume credit quality remains solid in net charge-offs to average loans to be in the range of 20 to 25 basis points in the third quarter and 25 to 35 basis points in the fourth quarter, both below our expected over-the-cycle targeted range of 40 to 60 basis points. Our guidance for the third and fourth quarter GAAP tax rate is 18% to 19%.

預計第三季度非利息收入同比增長2%至4%，第四季度同比增長4%至6%，反映出資本市場逐步改善。預計第三和第四季度非利息支出將保持相對穩定。我們假設信貸質量保持穩定，第三季度平均貸款淨沖銷範圍為 20 至 25 個基點，第四季度為 25 至 35 個基點，均低於我們預期的 40 至 60 個基點的周期目標範圍。我們對第三和第四季度 GAAP 稅率的指導為 18% 至 19%。

Using our quarterly guidance, our full year outlook for 2023 versus the prior year would be the following: net interest income down 12% to 14%, fees down 7% to 9%, expenses relatively stable, net charge-offs of 25 to 30 basis points for the year and a GAAP tax rate of 18% to 19%.

根據我們的季度指引，我們對 2023 年全年的展望與上一年相比如下：淨利息收入下降 12% 至 14%，費用下降 7% 至 9%，費用相對穩定，當年淨沖銷為 25 至 30 個基點，GAAP 稅率為 18% 至 19%。

We feel confident in the foundation of our business, in our diverse high-quality deposit base, the durability of our balanced franchise and our improved risk profile. Despite near-term headwinds, we continue to be focused on execution in 2023 and positioning the company to benefit from the strong long-term core earnings power of our businesses.

我們對我們的業務基礎、多元化的高質量存款基礎、我們平衡的特許經營權的持久性以及我們改善的風險狀況充滿信心。儘管近期面臨阻力，我們仍將繼續專注於 2023 年的執行力，並使公司受益於我們業務強大的長期核心盈利能力。

With that, I will now turn the call back to the operator for instructions for the Q&A portion of our call. Operator?

這樣，我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，以獲取電話問答部分的說明。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

One moment please for the first question. That will come from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

請稍等一下第一個問題。這將來自斯科特·西弗斯（Scott Siefers）和派珀·桑德勒（Piper Sandler）的血統。

Clark, I wanted to talk about the NII outlook. So the pace of NII degradation looks like it should slow considerably in the second half, the fourth quarter, especially. Maybe a little more color on the main factors you see that would allow that to happen. I know you sort of rationalize the beta expectation, and of course you've got the treasuries and swaps, but just curious to hear from your view, the sort of main factors in that outlook.

Clark，我想談談 NII 的前景。因此，NII 退化的速度看起來應該在下半年、尤其是第四季度大幅放緩。也許對你所看到的導致這種情況發生的主要因素進行更多的描述。我知道你在某種程度上合理化了貝塔預期，當然你也有國債和掉期合約，但只是想听聽你的觀點，即這種前景中的主要因素。

Sure. Thanks, Scott. And I think this will be a topic worth spending a little time on. So first, let me just remind you that the 2.12% NIM would have been 2.85% without the swaps and treasuries, which were about $340 million in the quarter, just to give you kind of a level set. If we go back to recent -- the most recent guidance, we would have guided you to the second quarter being at or near the bottom. So to your point, Scott, it's a little bit of a continued decline.

當然。謝謝，斯科特。我認為這將是一個值得花一點時間討論的話題。首先，讓我提醒您，如果沒有掉期和國債（本季度約為 3.4 億美元），2.12% 的淨息差本應為 2.85%，只是為了給您一個水平設定。如果我們回到最近的——最新的指導，我們會指導你第二季度處於或接近底部。所以就你的觀點而言，斯科特，這是一種持續的下降。

What I'd say is the fundamentals of our business are very consistent with that comment. What's changed is the rate expectation in the back half of the year. So at that time, we were expecting 2 cuts in the fourth quarter. As I stated in the prepared remarks, we're now going to see kind of a one hike and it flat through the end of the year. And I think the implication of that is the betas will drift a little higher through the back half of the year, and the swaps and the treasuries will be a little bit bigger drag than we previously expected.

我想說的是，我們業務的基本面與該評論非常一致。變化的是下半年的利率預期。所以當時我們預計第四季度會有兩次削減。正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們現在將看到一次加息，到年底將持平。我認為這意味著貝塔值將在今年下半年略微走高，掉期和國債的拖累將比我們之前的預期更大。

That said, we do think that both of those factors are moderating. So we're seeing deposit balances stabilize, and we're seeing the slope of that beta increase flatten. And we're continuing to see swaps mature and the treasury portfolio will begin to mature now in the third quarter. So we'll see opportunity as those 2 books come off. So what we're seeing then is that flattening of the NII and NIM trajectory as we go into fourth quarter, and we wanted to reflect that by providing guidance for each individual quarter.

也就是說，我們確實認為這兩個因素都在減弱。因此，我們看到存款餘額趨於穩定，貝塔係數增長的斜率趨於平緩。我們將繼續看到掉期的成熟，國債投資組合將在第三季度開始成熟。因此，隨著這兩本書的出版，我們會看到機會。因此，當我們進入第四季度時，我們看到的是 NII 和 NIM 軌跡趨於平緩，我們希望通過為每個季度提供指導來反映這一點。

As we go beyond that into 2024, I think we'll start to see a pickup. Slide 9 isolates the swap and treasury portfolio, so consistent with what we did last quarter. As I stated a few minutes ago, $340 million drag in Q2 or 73 basis points. And the way I'd think about it just in its simplest terms is $9 billion U.S. treasuries that start maturing in this quarter, with basically an average yield, think, of 45 basis points and $10.3 billion of swaps between now and the end of '24 with a receive fixed rate between 40 and 50 basis points. So put those together, you're looking at close to $20 billion with an almost 5% yield pickup by the end of '24, and that's what gets you to the $900 million or $220 million per quarter -- $230 million, sorry, per quarter that we have on Slide 9 in the deck as of Q1 '25.

當我們進入 2024 年時，我認為我們將開始看到回升。第 9 張幻燈片將互換和國債投資組合分開，與我們上季度的做法一致。正如我幾分鐘前所說，第二季度的 3.4 億美元拖累了 73 個基點。我用最簡單的方式來思考這個問題，即本季度開始到期的 90 億美元美國國債，其平均收益率基本上為 45 個基點，從現在到 24 年底，掉期金額為 103 億美元，固定利率在 40 至 50 個基點之間。因此，將這些加在一起，到 24 年底，您將看到接近 200 億美元，收益率上升近 5%，這就是每季度 9 億美元或 2.2 億美元的收入——抱歉，截至 25 年第一季度，我們在幻燈片 9 上的數據是每季度 2.3 億美元。

So again, in that case, we're trying to isolate just the treasuries and swaps and provide as much transparency as we can there on these specific headwinds. What I would say that doesn't include is the relative betas or funding costs that go with that. But I just want to touch on that because, again, I think it's important to understand. If you look at the $720 million, which is equivalent to the $900 million that we quote this quarter, that was consistent with a different rate environment, where rates were coming down at the end of the quarter or the end of the year and we would have had a muted -- slightly muted impact on the NII pickup.

因此，在這種情況下，我們再次嘗試僅隔離國債和互換，並就這些特定的不利因素提供盡可能多的透明度。我想說的是，這不包括與之相關的相對貝塔值或融資成本。但我只想談談這一點，因為我認為理解這一點很重要。如果你看一下 7.2 億美元，相當於我們本季度報價的 9 億美元，這與不同的利率環境是一致的，在季度末或年底利率下降，我們會對 NII 的回升產生輕微的影響。

As I just said, rates, we think, are going to be higher now. The betas will be higher. But commensurately, the pickup in those swaps and treasuries has gone from $720 million to $900 million. So those are going to move in sync. Slide 9 is intended to be, again, isolated to the treasuries and swaps just to make sure we're giving you as much disclosure on those as we can.

正如我剛才所說，我們認為現在的利率將會更高。貝塔值會更高。但相應地，這些互換和國債的增長也從 7.2 億美元增加到 9 億美元。所以這些將同步進行。幻燈片 9 的目的再次是與國債和掉期交易分開，只是為了確保我們盡可能多地向您披露這些信息。

Okay. That's extraordinarily helpful color. So I appreciate that. And I don't want to put words in your mouth, but in the aggregate, would your expectation be that NII ends up sort of bottoming around end of this year, maybe early next year, but then does see a more visible inflection back up as sort of the pricing dynamics weighing on funding costs, but you then start to get a more material and visible benefit from the swap and treasury maturities. Is that the best way to think about it? .

好的。這是非常有用的顏色。所以我很欣賞這一點。我不想在你嘴裡說出來，但總的來說，你的預期是NII最終會在今年年底左右觸底，也許明年初，但隨後確實會看到更明顯的拐點，因為定價動態會影響融資成本，但隨後你會開始從掉期和國庫券到期中獲得更實質性和更明顯的好處。這是最好的思考方式嗎？ 。

Yes, I think that was very well stated.

是的，我認為這句話說得很好。

We'll go next to the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們將前往 Ebrahim Poonawala 與美國銀行的線路旁。

Just wanted to follow up, I think, on the same line of questioning that Scott around NII. So appreciate the lift from swaps and treasuries. I think the concern when you talk to investors has been the valley before we get to that point has kept getting deeper throughout the year. When we look at this guidance for the back half, I think, Clark, you mentioned implies negative 12% year-over-year. Give us a sense of just a level of confidence in that guidance, that this is it, absent any big change in the interest rate backdrop. How good do you feel and the level of visibility that you have? And I appreciate it's been tough for the entire industry to handicap this, but any color you can provide would be helpful.

我想，我只是想跟進斯科特圍繞 NII 提出的同樣的問題。因此，我們要感謝掉期和國債帶來的提振。我認為，當你與投資者交談時，你所擔心的是我們到達這一點之前的低谷，這一年全年都在不斷加深。當我們看到下半年的指導時，克拉克，我認為您提到的同比下降幅度為 12%。讓我們對這一指導有一定程度的信心，在利率背景沒有發生任何重大變化的情況下，就是這樣。您感覺如何以及您的可見度如何？我很感激整個行業很難阻止這一點，但是您可以提供的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Sure. So look, I think the biggest change as we've gone through the year has been the rate level. So given your commentary on sort of relatively stable rates, I think we feel very good about the trajectory we're sharing here. And I would say, overall, our deposit betas, I feel like, are very much in line with the peer group. We did some catching up because we outperformed last year, but I feel like that's very consistent with what's happening in the industry, and we just happen to have these specific headwinds right now on swaps and treasuries. But again, as those come off, we think we're prepared to get the benefit of that. So I would say that in the expected rate environment, our confidence would be good.

當然。所以看，我認為這一年最大的變化是利率水平。因此，鑑於您對相對穩定的利率的評論，我認為我們對我們在這里分享的軌跡感到非常滿意。我想說，總的來說，我覺得我們的存款貝塔值與同行非常一致。我們做了一些追趕，因為我們去年的表現優於大盤，但我覺得這與行業正在發生的情況非常一致，而且我們現在恰好在掉期和國債方面遇到了這些特定的阻力。但同樣，隨著這些的實現，我們認為我們已經準備好從中受益。所以我想說，在預期的利率環境下，我們的信心會很好。

Got it. And second question, I think Chris talked about 2 things. One is focus on expenses. I see the guidance for flat expenses for the back half. Give us a sense if there's a bigger opportunity around flexing expense leverage as we move into back half, and as at least the Street thinks about 2024 EPS. And also around any proactive RWA actions, I think you mentioned getting rid of or exiting nonstrategic relationships. How impactful could that be for (inaudible) capital?

知道了。第二個問題，我認為克里斯談到了兩件事。一是注重支出。我看到了後半段固定費用的指導。讓我們了解一下，當我們進入後半段時，以及至少華爾街對 2024 年每股收益的看法是否存在更大的機會來調整費用槓桿。關於任何主動的 RWA 行動，我認為您提到了擺脫或退出非戰略關係。這對（聽不清）資本的影響有多大？

Sure. So that's a great question. And as you put them together, they are closely related. So if you just step back here, here's how we see the future as all the regs unfold. What's not going to change for us, Ebrahim, is we're going to remain focused on our relationship model. We're going to stay focused on targeted scale. But I think there's going to be incredible and intense scrutiny around the duration, the granularity, the composition of the deposit base, and that's one of the reasons that Clark talked about that we pivoted and made sure we protected our deposits, whereas we were kind of leading in terms of not having a lot of beta.

當然。這是一個很好的問題。當你把它們放在一起時，它們是密切相關的。因此，如果您退後一步，隨著所有法規的展開，我們將如何看待未來。易卜拉欣，對我們來說不會改變的是我們將繼續專注於我們的關係模式。我們將繼續專注於目標規模。但我認為，將會對存款基礎的期限、粒度和構成進行令人難以置信和嚴格的審查，這就是克拉克談到的我們轉向並確保保護我們的存款的原因之一，而我們在沒有太多貝塔方面處於領先地位。

Next gets to -- I think there's -- and this gets directly to your question. I think there's going to be a significant change in loan-to-deposit ratios. As you kind of run all this through your models and we run it through our models, I think loan-to-deposit ratios for Category 4 banks, if they're mid-80s now, they're going to be significantly less. And we are very focused on this. And so keep in mind, last year, we grew our loans kind of high double digits. I mean like around 19%, I should say, high teens. And then we were on a path to grow 6% to 9%, but that all happened in the first quarter before the events of March. And we not only stopped that growth, but actually pushed it back $1 billion by the end of this quarter, which I think is really, really important.

接下來是——我想有——這直接涉及到你的問題。我認為貸存比率將會發生重大變化。當你通過你的模型運行所有這些，我們通過我們的模型運行它時，我認為第四類銀行的貸存比，如果它們現在是 80 年代中期，它們將會顯著降低。我們非常關注這一點。因此請記住，去年我們的貸款增長了兩位數。我的意思是大約 19%，我應該說，是十幾歲的人。然後我們的增長率為 6% 到 9%，但這一切都發生在 3 月份事件之前的第一季度。我們不僅停止了這種增長，而且實際上到本季度末將其減少了 10 億美元，我認為這非常非常重要。

And right now, what we're doing is we are scrutinizing every portfolio we have in the bank. I've always said that on a risk-adjusted basis, most loans -- most stand-alone loans don't return their cost of capital. And if you think about having to carry more capital and you think about the capital that you have being a lot more expensive, then you can rest assured there will be a lot of credit-only relationships that won't be strategic to us. So we'll preserve our capital for those relationships. As you know, we can do a lot with them. But we will be continuing to push down our assets.

現在，我們正在做的是仔細審查我們在銀行擁有的每一個投資組合。我一直說，在風險調整的基礎上，大多數貸款——大多數獨立貸款都無法收回資本成本。如果你考慮必須攜帶更多資本，並且你認為你擁有的資本要貴得多，那麼你可以放心，將會有很多純信用關係，這對我們來說不具有戰略意義。因此，我們將為這些關係保留資本。如您所知，我們可以利用它們做很多事情。但我們將繼續壓低我們的資產。

And you see in the guidance that Clark gave you, we're looking at average loans being down 1% to 3% in the third quarter and down 1% to 3% in the fourth quarter, we will hit that. So -- and then the second part of your question, which is also related, as we shrink the balance sheet, we're going to have to make sure that our expense base is rightsized for the future asset base of our company. And rest assured, we're looking at that as well.

你可以在克拉克給你的指導中看到，我們預計第三季度平均貸款將下降 1% 至 3%，第四季度將下降 1% 至 3%，我們將實現這一目標。那麼，你問題的第二部分也是相關的，當我們縮小資產負債表時，我們必須確保我們的費用基礎根據我們公司未來的資產基礎進行調整。請放心，我們也在考慮這一點。

And Chris, if I may squeeze one in. Just give us a sense of the dividend. There's been a lot of focus, the 7% dividend yield. As the Chairman of the Board, I know it's evaluated every quarter, but how confident are you in terms of dividend sustainability as we kind of plug through the back half into '24?

克里斯，請讓我插一句。讓我們了解一下紅利。 7% 的股息收益率一直是人們關注的焦點。作為董事會主席，我知道每個季度都會對其進行評估，但是當我們進入 24 世紀下半年時，您對股息可持續性有多大信心？

Sure. Well, the headline there is -- I am confident. But as a Board member, we spend a lot of time talking about strategy and talking about dividend policy. We manage the company for the long term, and the dividend policy is no exception. Our capital priorities, as I just mentioned, are unchanged. It's to support our clients, our prospects and to pay dividends. And to your point, last week, our Board did approve a $0.205 third quarter dividend. Keep in mind, over our history, we have paid out 80% very, very often. It's just been in the form of both buybacks and a cash dividend. So we're obviously paying close attention to that. I feel good about it.

當然。嗯，標題是——我有信心。但作為董事會成員，我們花了很多時間談論戰略和股息政策。我們對公司進行長期管理，股息政策也不例外。正如我剛才提到的，我們的資本優先事項沒有改變。這是為了支持我們的客戶、我們的前景並支付股息。就您而言，上週我們的董事會確實批准了 0.205 美元的第三季度股息。請記住，在我們的歷史上，我們非常非常頻繁地支付 80%。它只是以回購和現金股息的形式出現。所以我們顯然正在密切關注這一點。我對此感覺很好。

Let me talk a little bit about capital because it's so related. This -- in spite of some of the challenges Clark mentioned, this quarter, we grew capital. We paid a $0.205 dividend, and we built reserves. And so as we think about taking this long-term perspective, when you look at our normalized earnings power of our company, and that is the reversal of the NII headwind into a tailwind and also having a reasonable expectation around investment banking fees, the earnings power of the company is strong. We can build capital there.

讓我談談資本，因為它是如此相關。儘管克拉克提到了一些挑戰，但本季度我們還是增加了資本。我們支付了 0.205 美元的股息，並建立了儲備金。因此，當我們考慮從長遠角度考慮時，當你看看我們公司的正常盈利能力時，即NII逆風逆轉為順風，並且對投資銀行費用有合理的預期，公司的盈利能力很強。我們可以在那裡建立資本。

Clark mentioned the AOCI burn down, 44% by 12/31/24, 55% by 12/31/25. And then, as I just mentioned, this game plan that we have around risk-weighted assets will be important. And then the last thing that I think is really important, and it's going to be important, I think, as the cycle continues to play out is we have a well-positioned credit book. And there's nothing that destroys capital faster and in bigger hunks than having a bunch of credit losses. And so I put all those things together, we take a long-term perspective on the dividend. We feel good about it.

Clark 提到 AOCI 燒毀情況，到 2024 年 12 月 31 日燒毀了 44%，到 2025 年 12 月 31 日燒毀了 55%。然後，正如我剛才提到的，我們圍繞風險加權資產製定的遊戲計劃將非常重要。然後我認為真正重要的最後一件事是，隨著周期的繼續發展，我認為這將很重要，那就是我們擁有一個定位良好的信用簿。沒有什麼比大量信貸損失更能更快、更大規模地摧毀資本了。因此，我將所有這些因素放在一起，我們對股息採取長遠的眼光。我們對此感覺很好。

We'll go next to the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們將沿著肯·烏斯丁和杰弗里斯的隊伍走。

Just a couple of follow-ups on the loan side. Obviously, you said that your retaining a little bit back to kind of that upper teens point of your investment banking originations. And I'm just wondering, does that have any throughput in terms of the ability to generate business in the investment bank? And I guess connected just then, your confidence in the second half improvement in the investment bank, is that because you start to -- you're starting to see things get back out the door as opposed to keep on the balance sheet like you have been doing for the last couple of years?

只是貸款方面的一些後續行動。顯然，您說過您有點回到了投資銀行起源的十幾歲的時候。我只是想知道，就投資銀行產生業務的能力而言，這是否有任何吞吐量？我想就在那時，您對投資銀行下半年改善的信心是因為您開始 - 您開始看到事情重新出現，而不是像過去幾年那樣保留在資產負債表上？

Well, first of all, thank you for your question, Ken. It's complicated by the fact that, as usual, mix has a lot to do with it. So we actually distributed a lot of debt in the second quarter. The reality is a lot of it was investment grade. So in terms of investment banking fees, not so great. In terms of keeping the velocity of our balance sheet, very, very important. But the premise of your question, as we look to shrink our balance sheet, the ability to distribute paper to a lot of different places will be -- will, in fact, be important. And so that will be an important part of the mix.

嗯，首先，謝謝你的提問，肯。與往常一樣，混音與此有很大關係，這一事實使事情變得複雜。所以我們實際上在第二季度分配了很多債務。現實情況是，其中很多都是投資級的。因此，就投資銀行費用而言，並不是那麼高。就保持資產負債表的速度而言，非常非常重要。但你問題的前提是，當我們希望縮小資產負債表時，向許多不同地方分發紙張的能力實際上將很重要。因此，這將是其中的重要組成部分。

In terms of what I'm seeing, here's kind of what I'm saying. One, our M&A backlog year-over-year is up. Our total backlog is down, but down kind of mid-single digits which is really not a big deal. What I'm most encouraged by is not that I'm seeing things coming out of the pipeline. Obviously, in the equity market, we're starting to see that. You're seeing that for sure. But what I'm really pleased with is I talk to our clients all the time, in fact, as recently as yesterday, I talked to one of our large clients who is proceeding with a transaction that's been sort of percolating for some time as people kind of go through the price discovery. So it's really more a gut feel on my part having been around this business just for so long.

就我所看到的而言，這就是我所說的。第一，我們的併購積壓訂單逐年增加。我們的總積壓量有所下降，但下降了個位數左右，這確實不是什麼大問題。最令我鼓舞的並不是我看到事情正在醞釀之中。顯然，在股票市場上，我們開始看到這一點。你肯定看到了這一點。但我真正感到高興的是，我一直在與我們的客戶交談，事實上，就在昨天，我與我們的一位大客戶交談過，他正在進行一項交易，該交易已經滲透了一段時間，因為人們正在經歷價格發現。所以，對於我來說，在這個行業工作了這麼長時間，更多的是一種直覺。

Got it. And just one more. Laurel Road, some cost factors there, too, obviously, with the debt moratorium and what happens there. But just as far as also being scrutinizing every incremental loan that you're making, just can you talk about the Laurel Road specifically, but how you're also thinking through that in terms of the other consumer portfolios?

知道了。還有一個。勞雷爾路，顯然，還有一些成本因素，包括債務延期償付以及那裡發生的事情。但就審查您正在發放的每筆增量貸款而言，您能否具體談談勞雷爾路，但您如何從其他消費者投資組合的角度考慮這一點？

Sure. I'll start, and then I'm going to flip it over to Clark. But it's a great question and it's one, as we sort of have gone through our reset, we've spent a lot of time talking about these capabilities that we need to make sure we have. Before we bought Laurel Road, they securitized and distributed 100% of their loans. Going forward, we're going to be securitizing and distributing their loans. We have the people and we have the ability to do it. So it's a really good question.

當然。我先開始，然後把它交給克拉克。但這是一個很好的問題，而且是一個，因為我們已經經歷了重置，我們花了很多時間討論我們需要確保我們擁有的這些能力。在我們購買 Laurel Road 之前，他們將 100% 的貸款進行了證券化和分配。展望未來，我們將對其貸款進行證券化和分配。我們有人才，也有能力做到這一點。所以這是一個非常好的問題。

While I'm on the point of Laurel Road, the other thing we've done on Laurel Road is we really made 2 pivots in what's been going on with the federal student loan payment holiday. One, we turned it into a complete digital platform, whereby we can have loans, deposits, importantly, checking account, card, mortgage, et cetera. The other thing that we did is when we bought GradFin, and we're in the early days of this, Ken, but GradFin is a market leader in advising people around not only public service loan forgiveness, but the whole income-based debt repayment which the government is really opening up the aperture for. It's falsely complex and you need someone to sort of help you through it, which is a good thing. But that's another pivot that we've made there.

當我談到勞雷爾路時，我們在勞雷爾路所做的另一件事是，我們確實在聯邦學生貸款支付假期的情況上做出了兩個轉變。第一，我們把它變成了一個完整的數字平台，我們可以在其中擁有貸款、存款，重要的是，還有支票賬戶、卡、抵押貸款等等。我們做的另一件事是當我們購買 GradFin 時，Ken，我們還處於早期階段，但 GradFin 是市場領導者，不僅為人們提供公共服務貸款減免方面的建議，而且還為政府真正開放的整個基於收入的債務償還提供建議。它確實很複雜，你需要有人來幫助你完成它，這是一件好事。但這是我們在那裡所做的另一個支點。

But getting back to your question about sort of our asset-light model. Clark, why don't you talk about -- speak to that, particularly around mortgage as well.

但回到你關於我們的輕資產模式的問題。克拉克，你為什麼不談談——談談這個，特別是在抵押貸款方面。

Yes. So I think largely, we're going to look to continue to distribute. I mean we do have capabilities now, where we distribute a lot of debt. We're going to expand that more consistently, I think, to the consumer side. The point I think on Laurel Road that Chris made that I just want to reiterate is we never acquired it to be a student loan only generator, that was kind of the headline. It was intended to be a full-service banking platform. We continue to build toward that. And we think it's got some really unique and differentiated capability around this income-driven repayment and public service loan forgiveness and you may have seen some commentary out of the government in the past week around the IDR specifically and some of the complexities of that, which I think will accrue to our benefit over time.

是的。所以我認為在很大程度上，我們將尋求繼續分銷。我的意思是我們現在確實有能力分配大量債務。我認為，我們將更一致地將其擴展到消費者方面。我認為克里斯在勞雷爾路（Laurel Road）上提出的觀點我只想重申一下，我們從來沒有將其收購為僅用於學生貸款的發電機，這就是標題。它的目的是成為一個全方位服務的銀行平台。我們將繼續朝著這個目標努力。我們認為它在這種收入驅動的還款和公共服務貸款減免方面具有一些真正獨特和差異化的能力，你可能在過去一周看到了政府針對 IDR 的一些評論，特別是其中的一些複雜性，我認為隨著時間的推移，這些評論將為我們帶來好處。

Got it. So if I can wrap that together, is it fair to say that the trade-off of less NII -- less loan growth over time, getting the LDR down, you'll sacrifice some NII help on the capital side and then move towards more of a fee-generating model just in terms -- yes...

知道了。因此，如果我可以將其放在一起，可以公平地說，減少NII的權衡——隨著時間的推移貸款增長減少，降低LDR，你將犧牲一些資本方面的NII幫助，然後轉向更多的收費模式——是的……

Yes. I think that's the right idea. I think we're also demonstrating more deposit growing capability there. And again, we're still relatively new in having those capabilities. But I think that's the right way to think about it. So more of a fee advice and core banking generator than a loan shop.

是的。我認為這是正確的想法。我認為我們還在那裡展示了更多的存款增長能力。再說一遍，我們在擁有這些功能方面還相對較新。但我認為這是正確的思考方式。因此，與其說是貸款店，不如說是收費建議和核心銀行業務生成器。

We'll go next to the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

我們將緊隨 John Pancari 與 Evercore 的路線。

Just going back to the $900 million on Slide 9 of the NII pickup from treasury and swap maturities. So let me just ask it this way, aside from a change in the rate backdrop and your interest rate outlook, what could prevent you from realizing that? I know there's a fair amount of investor skepticism around the ability of that $900 million to find its way into the numbers. From your perspective, how do you size up the risks? What are the risks that you do not realize that? What gets in the way? Is it more on the deposit side? Or is it an asset side of the picture that could prevent that from being realized?

回到幻燈片 9 上從國債和互換到期日提取的 NII 中的 9 億美元。那麼，讓我這樣問一下，除了利率背景和您的利率前景的變化之外，還有什麼可以阻止您意識到這一點？我知道有相當多的投資者對這 9 億美元能否轉化為數字持懷疑態度。從您的角度來看，您如何衡量風險？您沒有意識到的風險是什麼？什麼阻礙了？存款方面是否更多？或者這是否是一個可能阻礙這一目標實現的資產方面？

Yes. So I think, I mean, the rate available when the treasuries and swaps mature is sort of the single biggest factor, and that would be -- would have been reflected in the $720 million moving to $900 million. So -- and again, that's isolating kind of the income portion of that. I do think there's a couple of variables. So think about the treasuries, whether or not we reinvest them in the market, use them as replacement funding or hold them in cash. Today, those are relatively neutral. Over time, if there's a disparity between those 3, you might see a little bit of pickup or drop depending on which decision we make. But today, it's kind of a push across all 3 of those.

是的。所以我認為，我的意思是，國債和掉期到期時的可用利率是一個最大的因素，這將反映在 7.2 億美元升至 9 億美元中。所以——再說一次，這在某種程度上隔離了其中的收入部分。我確實認為有幾個變量。因此，想想國債，無論我們是否將其再投資於市場、將其用作替代資金或以現金形式持有。如今，這些都相對中立。隨著時間的推移，如果這三者之間存在差異，您可能會看到一些上升或下降，具體取決於我們做出的決定。但今天，它在某種程度上推動了這三個方面的發展。

And then your other point was right, which is the funding side of this. So I tried to reflect that as well in my comments of lower beta expectations at the end of Q1 when we showed you a $720 million opportunity, higher beta expectations here today, but that opportunity has gone up kind of in a related way. So I don't know and I don't want to pretend those are kind of one-to-one tide, but I would think about those moving at least in a fairly correlated direction.

然後你的另一個觀點是對的，那就是資金方面。因此，我試圖在第一季度末對較低貝塔預期的評論中反映出這一點，當時我們向您展示了一個 7.2 億美元的機會，今天在這裡更高的貝塔預期，但這個機會已經以一種相關的方式上升了。所以我不知道，我也不想假裝這些是一對一的趨勢，但我會考慮那些至少朝著相當相關的方向發展的趨勢。

Got it. Okay. All right. And then separately, as you continue to exit the -- or as you're evaluating the nonstrategic businesses and other optimization, just to confirm, any progress you make incrementally on that front that would be in addition, like to the guidance of a decline of 1% to 3% on the loan front. So anything on the incremental optimization that would provide -- that would lead to potential incremental downside to those numbers?

知道了。好的。好的。然後單獨地，當你繼續退出時——或者當你評估非戰略業務和其他優化時，只是為了確認你在這方面逐步取得的任何進展，就像貸款方面下降 1% 到 3% 的指導一樣。那麼增量優化方面的任何內容都會導致這些數字出現潛在的增量下降嗎？

I think if there was something more significant than what Chris referred to, which is maybe a very active management of the business, that would be incremental. But I think what we've built into this guidance is how we're running the business right now.

我認為，如果有比克里斯提到的更重要的事情，這可能是非常積極的業務管理，那將是漸進的。但我認為我們在本指南中納入的是我們目前的業務運營方式。

We'll go next to the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們將前往德意志銀行馬特·奧康納的隊伍旁邊。

I want to follow up on the kind of capital line of questions. I guess the first thing is a lot of your peers seem to be targeting 10% plus on the CET1. And obviously, there's capital proposals coming out. But I guess first question is, what are your thoughts in terms of that 9% to 9.5% target moving closer to 10% to 10.5% like some of your peers?

我想跟進一下資本線的問題。我想第一件事是你的很多同齡人似乎都把 CET1 的目標定為 10% 以上。顯然，已經有資本提案出台。但我想第一個問題是，您對像您的一些同行一樣將 9% 至 9.5% 的目標向 10% 至 10.5% 靠攏的想法有何想法？

So Matt, we think 9% to 9.5% is the right number for us given our business mix. If you think about 50% of our C&I book being investment grade, if you think about the fact that we don't have really any credit card business to speak of, if you think about the fact that at funding, we have FICO scores in our consumer business of 760 or so. We think it's the right number. And obviously, at 9.2% and having grown it from 9.1% this quarter, we're right in the strike zone. Having said all of that, we, like everybody else, will wait and digest anything that comes out in the not-too-distant future and reevaluate it at that point. But for our business, right now, we feel that's the right number.

所以馬特，考慮到我們的業務組合，我們認為 9% 到 9.5% 對我們來說是正確的數字。如果你認為我們的 C&I 賬簿中有 50% 是投資級，如果你考慮到我們實際上沒有任何信用卡業務可言，如果你考慮到在融資方面，我們的消費者業務的 FICO 分數約為 760 左右。我們認為這是正確的數字。顯然，從本季度的 9.1% 增長到 9.2%，我們正處於罷工區。話雖如此，我們和其他人一樣，將等待並消化在不久的將來出現的任何情況，並在那時重新評估它。但對於我們的業務來說，目前我們認為這個數字是正確的。

Okay. And then in terms of the RWA optimization, is it possible to size that or give a range, and the timing of when you'll get the benefit of that?

好的。然後就 RWA 優化而言，是否可以確定其大小或給出一個範圍，以及您何時能從中受益？

We're looking at a lot of different things. But right now, I'm most comfortable just directing you to the guidance that we gave around loans. But as I mentioned, we're looking at other things as well. I'll leave it at that.

我們正在研究很多不同的事情。但現在，我最樂意指導您的是我們提供的有關貸款的指導。但正如我提到的，我們也在考慮其他事情。我就這樣吧。

We'll go next to the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

我們將沿著 Manan Gosalia 與摩根士丹利的路線進行。

I wanted to clarify your comments earlier on the call that you believe that the LDRs for the industry and Category 4 banks, in particular, will have to move lower. Does that mean that you have some room to optimize some of your non-deposit funding like longer-term debt? Or is that unlikely given the potential for TLAC rules to also apply for Category 4 banks?

我想澄清您早些時候在電話會議上的評論，即您認為該行業，特別是第四類銀行的貸存比必須降低。這是否意味著您有一些空間來優化一些非存款資金（例如長期債務）？或者考慮到 TLAC 規則也可能適用於第 4 類銀行，這種情況不太可能發生嗎？

Yes. So I think that we do have that, and you would have seen us do a little bit of that even here in the second quarter. So I think your follow-on question around TLAC or long-term debt is the right one as well, and we'll wait, as Chris just mentioned, for the proposed and final rules. But we do think that reduction in loan-to-deposit over time gives us an opportunity to reduce reliance on wholesale funding.

是的。所以我認為我們確實做到了這一點，即使在第二季度，你也會看到我們做了一些這樣的事情。因此，我認為您關於 TLAC 或長期債務的後續問題也是正確的，正如克里斯剛才提到的，我們將等待擬議的和最終的規則。但我們確實認為，隨著時間的推移，貸存比的減少使我們有機會減少對批發融資的依賴。

Got it. Okay. And then maybe on the credit side, given the ACL was up this quarter as well. Was that entirely model driven? And I guess how much of a buildup -- is there more of a buildup to do? And what sort of an environment do you have baked into that current reserve ratio?

知道了。好的。然後也許是在信用方面，考慮到本季度 ACL 也有所上升。這完全是模型驅動的嗎？我猜有多少積累——還有更多的積累要做嗎？目前的準備金率是在什麼樣的環境下形成的？

Sure. So just from a CECL perspective, obviously, it's very forward-looking. In terms of what percentage is model-driven, what percent is kind of portfolio driven, I think you can assume it's kind of sort of half and half. And my assumption is that -- just to step back for a second. My assumption is that we will have -- I think the Fed is going to successfully engineer a soft landing. I think it will probably happen in 2024. Having said that, what I don't think is yet in the market is the impact of all the rate increases and also the impact of banks tightening down on credit. And I think both of those will have an impact on the economy.

當然。因此，僅從 CECL 的角度來看，顯然這是非常具有前瞻性的。就模型驅動的百分比和投資組合驅動的百分比而言，我認為您可以假設它是一半對一半。我的假設是——退後一步。我的假設是，我認為美聯儲將成功實現軟著陸。我認為這可能會在 2024 年發生。話雖如此，我認為市場上還沒有看到所有加息的影響以及銀行收緊信貸的影響。我認為這兩者都會對經濟產生影響。

And as such, we're pretty conservative in terms of how we look at things. And so the first thing we always do is look at anything that is leveraged and anything where the cash flows could be in any way impacted by a slowing economy. So that's kind of the lens that we looked at it. There is nothing specific. There's nothing that we're particularly worried about. We kind of looked across all the portfolios.

因此，我們看待事物的方式相當保守。因此，我們總是做的第一件事就是關注任何槓桿化的事物以及現金流可能受到經濟放緩影響的任何事物。這就是我們所研究的鏡頭。沒有什麼具體的。沒有什麼是我們特別擔心的。我們查看了所有的投資組合。

So as we -- if we do move towards a soft landing, would that imply that you don't need the ACL ratios to really move higher?

那麼，如果我們確實邁向軟著陸，這是否意味著 ACL 比率不需要真正提高？

Yes. Right now, I feel like we have reserved what we need to reserve, for sure.

是的。現在，我覺得我們確實已經保留了需要保留的東西。

We'll go next to the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們將跟隨邁克·梅奧（Mike Mayo）與富國銀行證券（Wells Fargo Securities）的路線。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, Mike, we can.

是的，邁克，我們可以。

So you're guiding NII down 4% to 6% in the third quarter and another 0% to 2% in the fourth quarter. What does that mean for your NIM? Even in broad terms, it was -- I guess, it was 2.12% in the second quarter?

因此，您引導 NII 在第三季度下降 4% 至 6%，在第四季度再下降 0% 至 2%。這對您的 NIM 意味著什麼？即使從廣義上講，我猜，第二季度是 2.12%？

Yes, we would expect it to be relatively flat in the third quarter and then start to trend up.

是的，我們預計第三季度將相對持平，然後開始呈上升趨勢。

Okay. So my question is, look, that's the lowest core margin possibly ever, at least since the global financial crisis. I mean, that is such a slim margin here. And then -- so I guess, why such a low margin? And even after the increase, I guess I get to around NII of about $1.15 billion per quarter, which is where you were in the second quarter 2022, which is before the Fed rate hikes. And you can correct the math, but you're using the midpoint to your NII of $986 million, goes down to $937 million next quarter and then $927 million in the fourth quarter.

好的。所以我的問題是，看，這可能是有史以來最低的核心利潤率，至少是自全球金融危機以來的最低水平。我的意思是，這裡的利潤非常微薄。然後——所以我想，為什麼利潤率這麼低？即使在加息之後，我想每季度的 NII 約為 11.5 億美元，這是 2022 年第二季度（即美聯儲加息之前）的水平。您可以更正數學，但您使用的是 9.86 億美元的 NII 中點，下季度降至 9.37 億美元，然後第四季度降至 9.27 億美元。

And then I guess you're saying it goes up by about 1/4 from there by the end of the year, right? So $927 million plus 1/4 of that $900 million annualized, gets you around $1,150 million NII. So I'm throwing a lot of numbers around here. But in the end, you wind up with a NIM, you wind up with NII that's at a level before the Fed rate hikes. So even with the potential improvement next year, which would be an incremental positive, you're still not getting credit for any of the Fed rate hikes that took place. So what happened with the structural positioning of the balance sheet that leads to such a low NIM and NII?

然後我猜你是說到年底它會上漲約 1/4，對嗎？因此，9.27 億美元加上這 9 億美元的年化金額的 1/4，將為您帶來約 11.5 億美元的 NII。所以我在這裡拋出了很多數字。但最終，你最終會得到淨息差（NIM），你最終得到的淨息差（NII）處於美聯儲加息之前的水平。因此，即使明年可能出現改善，這將是一個增量積極的結果，但您仍然沒有因美聯儲的任何加息而獲得信用。那麼，資產負債表的結構定位到底發生了什麼，導致淨息差和淨利息收入如此之低呢？

So I mean what I -- where I'd start there, Mike, is that if you look at the composition of our loan book in general, it is, in our view, higher credit quality, but higher credit quality comes generally with lower yields. So we have over 50% of our C&I book is investment grade. We have super-prime consumer books. So those are not going to carry the same rates broadly is something like credit card, which we have very little exposure to or personal consumer loans, which we have very little exposure to.

所以我的意思是，邁克，我首先要說的是，如果你看看我們貸款賬簿的總體構成，我們認為，信用質量更高，但更高的信用質量通常伴隨著更低的收益率。因此，我們的 C&I 賬簿中超過 50% 屬於投資級別。我們有超級優質的消費書籍。因此，這些利率不會大體相同，比如信用卡，我們很少接觸信用卡，或者個人消費貸款，我們很少接觸信用卡。

So in that regard, we're starting probably structurally from a little bit lower NII, but the counter to that is what we think is a higher credit quality book. So I'll have to go back through the specific math you have there, but -- and I'm happy to do that and talk about it offline. But I think that's at least a starting point. But we think, over time, a NIM that starts with a 3 is not an unreasonable place for us to be.

因此，在這方面，我們可能在結構上從稍微較低的 NII 開始，但與此相反的是我們認為信用質量更高。因此，我必須回顧一下您那裡的具體數學知識，但是 - 我很樂意這樣做並在線下討論它。但我認為這至少是一個起點。但我們認為，隨著時間的推移，以 3 開頭的 NIM 對我們來說並不是一個不合理的地方。

And so is that right? So next year, you're guiding basically from the fourth quarter level where it stabilizes, at least the NII should go up by about 1/4 by the end of the year. In other words, you're guiding basically close to $900 million for the fourth quarter or a little above. And then you're saying you're gaining $900 million annualized by the end of next year. So that would imply NII would go 1/4 higher from that fourth quarter level, all else equal. Is that correct, the logic?

那麼這是正確的嗎？所以明年，你基本上會從第四季度穩定的水平開始指導，至少到年底NII應該會上升1/4左右。換句話說，您對第四季度的指導基本上接近 9 億美元或略高一些。然後你說到明年年底你將獲得 9 億美元的年收入。因此，這意味著在其他條件相同的情況下，NII 將比第四季度的水平高出 1/4。這個邏輯對嗎？

Not exactly. So the $900 million is annualized as of the first quarter of 2025.

不完全是。因此，這 9 億美元是截至 2025 年第一季度的年化金額。

Okay. So just a little bit later. Got it. But eventually, NII goes up by 1/4.

好的。所以稍後。知道了。但最終，NII 上升了 1/4。

Correct.

正確的。

And I said the words all else equal, what would not be equal? What could help the NII and what could help that NIM go back from 2% to 3%? What is that logic missing?

我說過，其他一切都平等，還有什麼不平等呢？什麼可以幫助 NII 以及什麼可以幫助 NIM 從 2% 回到 3%？這個邏輯缺少什麼？

Well, I think it's -- I mean, the obvious one right there is the 73 basis points that comes from swaps and treasuries. So that's what we're talking about. And betas, I think, getting -- or general rates and betas getting kind of more in line with historical averages or overall funding costs. So as we just talked about, we have some opportunity to reduce some wholesale funding, which is obviously expensive, and we're still yet to see pull-through on loan spreads. So I think there's a variety of factors that could improve that, many of which we are either not experienced at the moment or haven't seen kind of broadly in the industry.

嗯，我認為——我的意思是，最明顯的一個是來自掉期和國債的 73 個基點。這就是我們正在討論的。我認為，貝塔值正在變得——或者說一般利率和貝塔值變得更符合歷史平均水平或總體融資成本。因此，正如我們剛才談到的，我們有機會減少一些批發融資，這顯然是昂貴的，而且我們仍然沒有看到貸款利差的拉動。因此，我認為有多種因素可以改善這一點，其中許多因素我們目前還沒有經驗，或者在行業中還沒有廣泛看到。

And then last one, Chris, you started off saying you expect investment banking to be stronger in the second half of the year. There's been some drought for the industry. What gives you confidence either for the industry for Key or for both?

最後一位，克里斯，您一開始就說您預計投資銀行業務將在今年下半年變得更加強勁。該行業出現了一些乾旱。是什麼讓您對 Key 行業或兩者都充滿信心？

Mike, I was just -- I mentioned this earlier in the conversation. It is based on my experience being around this business as long as I have, people will defer transactions for so long. But eventually, sort of the logjam starts to break. I think we're starting to see it a little bit in the new issue equity business. And I've just been out talking to clients. And I think people that have put deals on hold now for 12 months, either these deals are going to start to happen or they're going to move on and do something else. So it's based on, one, just looking and scrutinizing the backlog. And then secondly, just more instinctive as I'm out talking to people.

邁克，我只是——我在早些時候的談話中提到過這一點。這是基於我在這個行業的經驗，只要我有，人們就會推遲交易這麼長時間。但最終，某種僵局開始打破。我認為我們已經開始在新發行的股票業務中看到這一點。我剛剛出去和客戶交談。我認為那些已經將交易擱置了 12 個月的人，要么這些交易將開始發生，要么他們將繼續前進並做其他事情。所以它的基礎是，第一，只是查看和審查積壓的工作。其次，當我出去與人交談時，我會更加本能。

So fish or cut bait time?

那麼釣魚還是減少用餌時間？

Yes, for sure.

是肯定的。

We'll go next to the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們將跟隨瑞銀 (UBS) 的埃里卡·納賈里安 (Erika Najarian) 的路線。

First question -- what was your adjusted CET1 in the quarter, including AOCI? And I presume that 9% 9.5% CET1 target would be like your fully loaded target even after we get an NPR that would be inclusive of AOCI and CET1?

第一個問題——您本季度調整後的 CET1 是多少，包括 AOCI？我認為即使我們得到包含 AOCI 和 CET1 的 NPR 後，9% 9.5% CET1 的目標也會像您滿載的目標一樣？

Yes. So whatever that ultimate target is, Erika, will reflect the appropriate rules. So if the AOCI of that is eliminated, then yes, I think you stated that correctly. So 630 that level for AOCI AFS is about 630.

是的。因此，無論最終目標是什麼，埃里卡，都會反映適當的規則。所以，如果 AOCI 被消除，那麼是的，我認為你說的是正確的。所以 630 AOCI AFS 的水平約為 630。

Got it. So my second question is for you, Chris. And I apologize if this sounds challenging, but this is sort of the big conversation that I'm having with long-term shareholders. Clearly, the stock price performance today is trying to price out some of the dividend fears that were in the market given where your yield is. And I think the big discussion I'm having with your investors is that, that 80% payout, right, that you mentioned and that happened for this quarter, it feels like 3 years ago, sort of in the pandemic, you were getting the same question about the sustainability of your dividend. And it feels like at the end of the day, it's really the denominator that has been challenged.

知道了。所以我的第二個問題是問你的，克里斯。如果這聽起來很有挑戰性，我深表歉意，但這是我與長期股東進行的重要對話。顯然，鑑於您的收益率，今天的股價表現正試圖消除市場上的一些股息擔憂。我認為我與你的投資者進行的重要討論是，你提到的 80% 的派息，以及本季度發生的情況，感覺就像 3 年前，在大流行期間，你也遇到了關於股息可持續性的同樣問題。感覺到最後，分母確實受到了挑戰。

So whether it's been expenses previously or steady having the balance sheet set up to have these received fixed rates that essentially implied a 0 rate environment forever, it just feels like your efficiency ratio isn't just quite right and doesn't really reflect the potential of the business. So as you think about the next 3 years, how are you -- what discussion are you going to have with your Board to have that earning -- the potential of your franchise really be reflected in your earnings power. I mean the NIM is the NIM, and I get the swaps, but like I feel like that (inaudible) gets wrapped up in the dividend conversation at the entire time, not necessarily because the dividend is an albatross, but it feels like that your earnings power is sensitive to vagaries of the macro.

因此，無論是之前的支出還是穩定的資產負債表設置，讓這些費用獲得固定利率，這本質上意味著永遠的零利率環境，感覺你的效率比率並不完全正確，也沒有真正反映業務的潛力。因此，當您考慮未來 3 年時，您將如何 - 您將與董事會進行哪些討論以獲得該收入 - 您的特許經營權的潛力是否真正反映在您的盈利能力中。我的意思是，淨息差就是淨息差，我得到了掉期，但我覺得（聽不清）一直都在股息討論中，不一定是因為股息是一個沉重的負擔，但感覺你的盈利能力對宏觀的變幻莫測很敏感。

Well, first of all, I appreciate the question. I agree with the premise of it. Our business -- the challenging thing for us, and we just -- I was with my Board last week and we were talking at length about this. Our challenge is our business is performing well. We clearly are under-earning, and we're under-earning based on how we have our balance sheet position. And that's why I mentioned one of the things that gives me confidence, Erika, is when we get the normalized earnings power of the company, we just talked about investment banking fees, that's driven by something else. But what we really need is the position that we have, which is liability sensitive at a time when you wouldn't want to be liability sensitive, we need for that to burn off.

嗯，首先，我很欣賞這個問題。我同意它的前提。我們的業務——對我們來說是一個具有挑戰性的事情，我們只是——上週我和我的董事會在一起，我們詳細討論了這個問題。我們的挑戰是我們的業務表現良好。顯然，我們的盈利不足，而且根據我們的資產負債表狀況來看，我們的盈利不足。這就是為什麼我提到給我信心的一件事，埃里卡，是當我們獲得公司正常化的盈利能力時，我們剛剛談論了投資銀行費用，這是由其他因素驅動的。但我們真正需要的是我們所擁有的立場，當你不想對責任敏感時，我們需要對責任敏感，我們需要將其燒掉。

And the passage of time will do a lot on that. Unfortunately, it is the passage of time. But as I mentioned, the burn down is 44% between now and 12/31/24, and 55%, this is as it relates to AOCI, by 12/31/25. So that is the issue. And I think we are -- said differently, we are under-earning right now and we will be over-earning as the position unwinds and rolls down.

時間的流逝會對此產生很大影響。不幸的是，這是時間的流逝。但正如我提到的，從現在到 2024 年 12 月 31 日，燒毀率為 44%，到 2025 年 12 月 31 日，燒毀率為 55%（與 AOCI 相關）。這就是問題所在。我認為我們——換句話說，我們現在的收入不足，而隨著頭寸的平倉和下滑，我們的收入將會超額。

And we'll go next to the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們將跟隨 RBC 的杰拉德·卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy) 的隊伍。

Chris, you touched on in your opening remarks about the commercial mortgage servicing portfolio, I think you said $630 billion. Can you share with us the special servicing segment within that business? Obviously, with the challenges in the commercial real estate market, particularly in the CMBS market, I suspect your special servicing business has picked up, and maybe some color there.

克里斯，您在開場白中談到了商業抵押貸款服務投資組合，我認為您提到了 6300 億美元。您能與我們分享一下該業務中的特殊服務部分嗎？顯然，隨著商業房地產市場，特別是 CMBS 市場的挑戰，我懷疑你們的特殊服務業務已經有所回升，也許還有一些色彩。

Sure. Well, thanks for the question. It's a great business because it generates a bunch of deposits through escrows, which are more important today than they ever have been in my career. It's also important because it's countercyclical. So for those of you that aren't as familiar with the business, we are the named special servicer when a large complex debt financing is put together. And so when you're the named special servicer, you get sort of what I would think of as sort of a ticking fee. And then if, in fact, it goes into default, and this is all [office] real estate, we are the workout agent.

當然。嗯，謝謝你的提問。這是一項偉大的業務，因為它通過託管產生大量存款，這在今天比我職業生涯中的任何時候都更加重要。這也很重要，因為它是反週期的。因此，對於那些不太熟悉該業務的人來說，當進行大型複雜的債務融資時，我們被稱為特殊服務商。因此，當您成為指定的特殊服務商時，您會得到我所認為的滴答費。然後，如果事實上它陷入違約，而這都是[辦公室]房地產，我們就是解決代理。

And to Gerard's point, we just set for the second quarter in a row a record in terms of special servicing fees. And so I think that will continue. And this won't surprise you, Gerard, but more than 2/3 of what is in active special servicing is office. And I think that's going to continue. And I think office is going to be -- it's not going to be a challenge for Key because it's not an asset class we focus on. But I think office is going to continue to be a significant challenge.

對於杰拉德來說，我們剛剛連續第二季度創下了特殊服務費的記錄。所以我認為這種情況將會持續下去。杰拉德，這不會令您感到驚訝，但活躍的特殊服務中超過 2/3 是辦公室。我認為這種情況將會持續下去。我認為辦公樓對 Key 來說不會是一個挑戰，因為它不是我們關注的資產類別。但我認為辦公室仍將是一個重大挑戰。

And Chris, based on your experience with this, these fees stay with you for a while since the workout phase takes quite a bit of time?

克里斯，根據您的經驗，這些費用會在您身上保留一段時間，因為鍛煉階段需要相當長的時間？

Yes, it's -- these are very large -- think it's kind of very large advisory fees that take a lot of people. These are very complex capital structures. It's not unusual for these fees on a single deal to be $5 million, $6 million, $7 million.

是的，這些費用非常大，需要很多人承擔非常大的諮詢費。這些是非常複雜的資本結構。單筆交易的費用達到 500 萬美元、600 萬美元、700 萬美元並不罕見。

Great. And then sticking with this, can you share with us -- just on the commercial loans, not commercial real estate necessarily, just what you guys are doing to get out in front of any potential challenges we could see if the economy -- I know you said soft landing is what you're thinking. But if the economy does lead to more delinquencies and defaults, what are you guys doing now to get in front of that?

偉大的。然後堅持這一點，你能否與我們分享——只是商業貸款，不一定是商業房地產，只是你們正在做什麼來應對我們可能看到的經濟挑戰——我知道你說軟著陸就是你所想的。但如果經濟確實導致更多的拖欠和違約，你們現在正在做什麼來應對這一情況呢？

Yes. Well, this is an area where we spend a lot of time. We are -- as it relates to the C&I book, particularly focused on anything that has floating rate debt that's leveraged. And so for us, our leverage book literally is the same than it was a decade ago. It's under 2% of our loans and it's focused on our industry verticals. But we are -- there's a lot of us -- Mark Midkiff is in the room with me, who is our Chief Risk Officer, he and I and others are laying eyes on this. We feel really good about where the portfolio is.

是的。嗯，這是我們花費大量時間的領域。我們——因為它與 C&I 書籍相關，特別關注任何具有槓桿浮動利率債務的事物。因此，對我們來說，我們的槓桿賬簿實際上與十年前相同。它不到我們貸款的 2%，並且專注於我們的垂直行業。但我們——我們有很多人——馬克·米德基夫（Mark Midkiff）和我一起在房間裡，他是我們的首席風險官，他和我以及其他人都在關注此事。我們對投資組合的現狀感到非常滿意。

But any time you go into an environment where you have declining EBITDA and a business with a lot of leverage and the cost of capital going up, you got to pay close attention. And that's where we pay very close attention. We feel good about -- we feel really good about all of our portfolios, but that's where I spend sort of my time because that's what's most vulnerable.

但每當你進入 EBITDA 下降、企業槓桿率較高且資本成本上升的環境時，你都必須密切關注。這就是我們非常密切關注的地方。我們對我們所有的投資組合感覺很好，但那是我花時間的地方，因為那是最脆弱的。

And we'll go next to Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

接下來我們將邀請摩根大通的史蒂文·阿萊克索普洛斯 (Steven Alexopoulos)。

I wanted to first follow up on your answer, Chris, to Ebrahim's question. Are you signaling that the door is not open at all in terms of potentially rightsizing the dividend?

克里斯，我想首先跟進你對易卜拉欣問題的回答。您是否表示，就可能調整股息規模而言，大門根本沒有打開？

I wouldn't say it's not open at all. The reason I would put that caveat is I've yet to see the new capital rules. But what I'm saying is I'm very comfortable with our dividend payout and the trajectory of our business under the current construct.

我不會說它根本不開放。我提出這一警告的原因是我還沒有看到新的資本規則。但我想說的是，我對我們的股息支付和當前結構下的業務軌跡感到非常滿意。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then on the fee income guide, I heard the messaging around green shoots and capital markets. But are those really needed to get us to this range, right, the up 4% to 6% and then -- sorry, up 2% to 4% and then 4% to 6%. Are there other factors which give us some cushion if the IB fees don't come back, that you could still deliver on the fee income guide?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後在費用收入指南上，我聽到了有關萌芽和資本市場的信息。但這些真的需要讓我們達到這個範圍嗎？對吧，上漲 4% 到 6%，然後——抱歉，上漲 2% 到 4%，然後是 4% 到 6%。如果 IB 費用沒有回來，是否還有其他因素可以給我們一些緩衝，您仍然可以按照費用收入指南提供這些緩衝？

There's other areas where we have cushion, but I mean investment banking fees are a big component of that. And we need to have more trajectory in the back half of the year on investment banking fees than we did in the front half of the year in order to hit these numbers.

我們還有其他領域的緩衝，但我的意思是投資銀行費用是其中的重要組成部分。為了達到這些數字，我們下半年的投資銀行費用需要比上半年有更多的變化。

Got it. Okay. And then finally, just a big picture view. Obviously, a lot of questions on the NIM, I'm just as surprised as Mike seeing 2.12%. For Clark, how do you think about managing the balance sheet and interest rate risk differently, so you don't get in this situation again where the NIM is this low, dividend payout ratio is this high. You're missing on the NII guidance, which is really all tied to what we're seeing on the swaps? But how do you think about big picture? So once you do get into a 3% NIM range that you sort of hang around there?

知道了。好的。最後，只是一個大圖片視圖。顯然，關於 NIM 的問題很多，我和 Mike 看到 2.12% 一樣感到驚訝。對於克拉克來說，你如何看待以不同的方式管理資產負債表和利率風險，這樣你就不會再次陷入淨息差如此低、股息支付率如此高的情況。您錯過了 NII 指南，這實際上與我們在掉期中看到的情況有關？但你如何看待大局呢？那麼，一旦你確實進入了 3% 的淨息差範圍，你就會徘徊在那裡嗎？

Yes. It's a great question. I think -- and it probably requires a longer answer. But short story, Steve, I think you just have to be probably considering a variety of additional scenarios and being a little bit more dynamic in the direction and pace of rate movements. So I think if rates had moved in an orderly fashion, this would be much less of an issue. They did not, as you know, and I think we just have to be more dynamic in our thinking about putting on certain positions.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。我認為——這可能需要更長的答案。但簡而言之，史蒂夫，我認為你可能只需要考慮各種額外的情況，並在利率變動的方向和節奏上更加動態一些。因此，我認為，如果利率以有序的方式變化，這將不再是一個問題。正如你所知，他們沒有，我認為我們只需要在考慮採取某些立場時更加積極主動。

And there are no further questions in queue at this time. I'll turn it back to Mr. Gorman.

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。我會把它轉回給戈爾曼先生。

Well, thank you so much, operator. Thank you for participating in our call today. If you have any follow-up questions, you can direct them to our Investor Relations team, (216) 689-4221. This concludes our remarks. Thank you, everybody. Have a good afternoon or good morning.

嗯，非常感謝你，接線員。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，可以直接聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊，電話 (216) 689-4221。我們的發言到此結束。謝謝大家。祝你下午好或早上好。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Event Conferencing. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T Event Conference。您現在可以斷開連接。