KeyCorp (KEY) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to KeyCorp's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to the Chairman and CEO, Chris Gorman. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎來到 KeyCorp 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。提醒一下，這次會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議轉交給主席兼首席執行官克里斯戈爾曼。請繼續。

Well, thank you for joining us for KeyCorp's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Don Kimble, our Chief Financial Officer; Clark Khayat, our Chief Strategy Officer. Upon Don's planned retirement, Clark will assume the CFO role; and also Mark Midkiff, our Chief Risk Officer.

好吧，感謝您加入我們的 KeyCorp 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席財務官 Don Kimble； Clark Khayat，我們的首席戰略官。在唐計劃退休後，克拉克將擔任首席財務官一職；還有我們的首席風險官 Mark Midkiff。

On Slide 2, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosure and non-GAAP financial measures. It covers our presentation materials and comments as well as the question-and-answer segment of our call.

在幻燈片 2 上，您會看到我們關於前瞻性披露和非 GAAP 財務措施的聲明。它涵蓋了我們的演示材料和評論以及我們電話的問答部分。

I'm now moving to Slide 3. This morning, we reported earnings of $356 million or $0.38 per common share. Our results included $265 million of provision for credit losses, which exceeded net charge-offs by $224 million or $0.20 a share. The additional provision builds our allowance for credit losses, adjusting our credit models to reflect a more cautious economic outlook.

我現在轉到幻燈片 3。今天早上，我們報告的收益為 3.56 億美元或每股普通股 0.38 美元。我們的業績包括 2.65 億美元的信貸損失準備金，超過淨沖銷 2.24 億美元或每股 0.20 美元。額外撥備建立了我們的信用損失準備金，調整我們的信用模型以反映更加謹慎的經濟前景。

Our results reflect continued growth in both our consumer and commercial businesses. In our consumer business, we have added new households with younger clients being our fastest-growing segment. Our commercial business also has continued to add and expand relationships.

我們的業績反映了我們的消費者和商業業務的持續增長。在我們的消費者業務中，我們增加了新的家庭，年輕客戶是我們增長最快的部分。我們的商業業務也繼續增加和擴大關係。

In 2022, we raised a record level of capital for our clients.

2022 年，我們為客戶籌集了創紀錄的資金。

Net interest income was up 2% from the third quarter, reflecting continued relationship-based loan growth supported by stable deposits. Deposit costs continued to move higher with a step-up in deposit rates late in the quarter. At the end of the fourth quarter, nearly 60% of our deposits were in low-cost retail and escrow balances.

淨利息收入較第三季度增長 2%，反映出在穩定存款的支持下，基於關係的貸款持續增長。隨著本季度末存款利率的提高，存款成本繼續走高。截至第四季度末，我們近 60% 的存款存在於低成本零售和託管餘額中。

In our commercial businesses, over 80% of our deposits are from core operating accounts. Our average loan balances increased 3% from the prior quarter as we continue to add relationships and offer the best execution with both on- and off-balance sheet solutions.

在我們的商業業務中，我們 80% 以上的存款來自核心經營賬戶。我們的平均貸款餘額比上一季度增加了 3%，因為我們繼續增加關係並通過資產負債表內和表外解決方案提供最佳執行。

We continue to benefit from investments we have made in our business, including the healthcare sector. In 2022, we continue to grow relationships with significant health care providers and expanded our Laurel Road business. Despite the student loan payment holiday, we originated over $1.5 billion of Laurel Road loans last year and increased our member households by over 30%.

我們繼續受益於我們對業務的投資，包括醫療保健行業。 2022 年，我們將繼續發展與重要醫療保健提供者的關係，並擴大我們的 Laurel Road 業務。儘管有學生貸款還款假期，但我們去年發放了超過 15 億美元的 Laurel Road 貸款，並使我們的成員家庭增加了 30% 以上。

Additionally, we expanded our offering to nurses, added new products and capabilities and completed the acquisition of GradFin. Since acquisition, GradFin has held nearly 30,000 individual consultations for refinance and public service loan forgiveness. These consultations are with prequalified credential prospects, all new to Key.

此外，我們將產品範圍擴大到護士，增加了新產品和功能，並完成了對 GradFin 的收購。自收購以來，GradFin 已就再融資和公共服務貸款減免進行了近 30,000 次個人諮詢。這些諮詢與資格預審的證書前景有關，對 Key 來說都是新的。

Our fee-based businesses in the fourth quarter reflect the continued slowdown in capital markets activity and the impact of changes to our NSF/OD fee structure. Investment banking and debt placement fees were up $18 million from the prior quarter, but down meaningfully from the year ago period, reflecting broader capital markets trends.

我們第四季度的收費業務反映了資本市場活動的持續放緩以及我們 NSF/OD 費用結構變化的影響。投資銀行和債務配售費用較上一季度增加 1800 萬美元，但較去年同期大幅下降，反映了更廣泛的資本市場趨勢。

The new issue equity market is virtually nonexistent and the M&A market continues to be engaged in price discovery. Our pipelines remain solid, particularly in M&A. However, the pull-through rates continue to be adversely impacted by market uncertainty.

新發行股票市場幾乎不存在，併購市場繼續進行價格發現。我們的管道仍然穩固，特別是在併購方面。然而，拉動率繼續受到市場不確定性的不利影響。

We have also continued to see more activity moving on to our balance sheet. In 2022, we raised a record $136 billion of capital for our clients, of which 23% was retained on our balance sheet well above our long-term average of 18%. Credit quality remained strong this quarter, with net charge-offs as a percentage of average loans of 14 basis points.

我們還繼續看到更多活動轉移到我們的資產負債表上。 2022 年，我們為客戶籌集了創紀錄的 1360 億美元資金，其中 23% 保留在我們的資產負債表上，遠高於我們 18% 的長期平均水平。本季度信貸質量依然強勁，淨註銷占平均貸款的百分比為 14 個基點。

Nonperforming loans declined again this quarter and delinquencies, criticized and classified loans all remained near historically low levels. We will continue to support our clients while maintaining our moderate risk profile, which positions the company to perform well through all business cycles.

本季度不良貸款再次下降，拖欠、批評和分類貸款均保持在歷史低位附近。我們將繼續支持我們的客戶，同時保持我們適度的風險狀況，這使公司能夠在所有商業周期中表現良好。

Our capital remains a strength, providing us with sufficient capacity to support our clients and return capital to our shareholders, including a 5% increase in our common stock dividend in the fourth quarter.

我們的資本仍然是一種優勢，為我們提供了足夠的能力來支持我們的客戶並向我們的股東返還資本，包括我們在第四季度增加了 5% 的普通股股息。

Before I turn the call over to Don, I want to share some thoughts on our outlook and priorities for 2023 and beyond. First, we will continue to execute on our differentiated business model and strategy. We will focus on expanding our presence in our fastest-growing markets and targeted industry verticals. As we demonstrated again in 2022, we are uniquely positioned to support clients through various market conditions.

在我將電話轉給 Don 之前，我想就我們 2023 年及以後的前景和優先事項分享一些想法。首先，我們將繼續執行差異化的商業模式和戰略。我們將專注於擴大我們在增長最快的市場和目標垂直行業的影響力。正如我們在 2022 年再次展示的那樣，我們具有獨特的優勢，可以在各種市場條件下為客戶提供支持。

Secondly, we will continue to benefit from our balance sheet and interest rate positioning. We have been very deliberate and intentional in the manner in which we have managed our interest rate risk with a longer-term perspective. Although our positioning is providing less current benefit, we have significant upside over the next 2 years as swaps and short-term treasuries mature and reprice. If we were to reprice our existing short-term treasuries and swaps at today's interest rates, we would have an annualized net interest income benefit of $1.1 billion.

其次，我們將繼續受益於我們的資產負債表和利率定位。我們以更長遠的眼光管理利率風險的方式非常慎重和有意。儘管我們的定位提供的當前收益較少，但隨著掉期和短期國債到期並重新定價，我們在未來 2 年有顯著的上行空間。如果我們以今天的利率重新定價我們現有的短期國債和掉期，我們將獲得 11 億美元的年化淨利息收入收益。

Thirdly, we will maintain our strong credit quality. We've spent the last decade derisking our portfolio, positioning the company to outperform through the business cycle. Despite our strong credit metrics, we built our loan loss reserve this quarter, which using our 2023 net charge-off outlook now represents almost 5 years of coverage. To put this in perspective, our reserve is now above our CECL day 1 level while nonperforming loans and delinquencies are roughly 1/2 of our prepandemic levels.

第三，我們將保持良好的信用質量。在過去的十年裡，我們一直在降低我們的投資組合的風險，使公司在整個商業周期中表現出色。儘管我們有強大的信用指標，但我們在本季度建立了貸款損失準備金，使用我們 2023 年的淨沖銷前景，它現在代表了近 5 年的覆蓋範圍。從正確的角度來看，我們的準備金現在高於我們的 CECL 第一天水平，而不良貸款和拖欠率大約是我們大流行前水平的 1/2。

Finally, we will continue to create capacity to make targeted investments in our business by reducing expenses. Although expense management has been an ongoing area of focus, we will be accelerating our cost takeout plans early in 2023. We will pursue cost opportunities across our company, including areas where we can leverage technology, automation and process improvement to reduce redundancy, improve efficiency and enhance effectiveness.

最後，我們將繼續創造能力，通過減少開支對我們的業務進行有針對性的投資。儘管費用管理一直是一個持續關注的領域，但我們將在 2023 年初加快我們的成本削減計劃。我們將在整個公司尋求成本機會，包括我們可以利用技術、自動化和流程改進來減少冗餘、提高效率的領域並提高有效性。

Our 2023 targets represent a cost reduction of approximately 4% relative to our full year 2022 level. The acceleration of our expense reduction plans will benefit us in 2 ways. First, we cannot grow if we are not investing. This will give us the capacity to continue to drive our targeted scale strategy, investing in points of differentiation.

我們的 2023 年目標表示，相對於我們 2022 年全年的水平，成本降低了約 4%。我們的費用削減計劃的加速將在兩個方面使我們受益。首先，如果我們不投資，我們就無法增長。這將使我們有能力繼續推動我們的目標規模戰略，投資於差異化點。

With the benefit of our cost reduction plans, we expect to hold expenses relatively stable this year compared to our full year 2022 results, which would be a significant accomplishment given inflationary pressures and our commitment to continue to invest in our future. I am confident in our long-term outlook and our ability to create value for all of our stakeholders.

得益於我們的成本削減計劃，與 2022 年全年業績相比，我們預計今年的支出將保持相對穩定，考慮到通脹壓力和我們繼續投資於未來的承諾，這將是一項重大成就。我對我們的長期前景和為所有利益相關者創造價值的能力充滿信心。

With that, I'll turn it over to Don to provide more details on the results for the quarter and our 2023 outlook. Don?

有了這個，我將把它交給 Don，提供有關本季度結果和我們 2023 年展望的更多細節。大學教師？

Thanks, Chris. I'm now on Slide 5. For the fourth quarter, net income from continuing operations was $0.38 per common share, down $0.17 from the prior quarter and down $0.26 from last year. Our results included $0.20 per share of additional loan loss provision in excess of net charge-offs as we continue to build our reserves, reflecting a more cautious economic outlook.

謝謝，克里斯。我現在在幻燈片 5 上。第四季度，持續經營淨收入為每股普通股 0.38 美元，比上一季度下降 0.17 美元，比去年下降 0.26 美元。我們的業績包括每股 0.20 美元的額外貸款損失準備金，超過淨沖銷，因為我們繼續建立儲備，反映出更加謹慎的經濟前景。

For the full year, we delivered positive operating leverage marking on ninth time in the last 10 years. This is a testament to our differentiated and resilient business model and our ongoing focus on disciplined expense management despite the inflationary environment.

對於全年，我們在過去 10 年中第九次實現了積極的經營槓桿標記。這證明了我們差異化和有彈性的商業模式，以及我們在通貨膨脹環境下持續關注紀律性費用管理。

Turning to Slide 6. Average loans for the quarter were $117.7 billion or up 18% from the year ago period and up 3% from the prior quarter as we continue to add and deepen client relationships across our franchise. Commercial loans increased 17% from the year ago quarter, driven by growth in commercial and industrial loans and commercial real estate balances.

轉到幻燈片 6。隨著我們繼續在我們的特許經營中增加和深化客戶關係，本季度的平均貸款為 1177 億美元，比去年同期增長 18%，比上一季度增長 3%。受商業和工業貸款以及商業房地產餘額增長的推動，商業貸款較上年同期增長 17%。

Relative to the year ago period, consumer loans increased 22%, reflecting growth in consumer mortgage and Laurel Road. Compared with the third quarter of 2022, commercial loans grew 3% and consumer loans were up 2%. Our commercial growth continues to reflect the strength in our targeted industry verticals and higher line utilization.

與去年同期相比，消費貸款增長了 22%，反映了消費抵押貸款和 Laurel Road 的增長。與2022年第三季度相比，商業貸款增長3%，消費貸款增長2%。我們的商業增長繼續反映出我們目標垂直行業的實力和更高的生產線利用率。

Our consumer business continues to benefit from residential real estate originations, which were just under $1 billion for the fourth quarter. Approximately 1/3 of our originations came from targeted health care professionals.

我們的消費者業務繼續受益於住宅房地產的發起，第四季度的銷售額略低於 10 億美元。我們大約 1/3 的來源來自目標醫療保健專業人員。

Continuing on to Slide 7. Average deposits totaled $145.7 billion for the fourth quarter of 2022, down 4% from the year ago period and up $1.4 billion or 1% compared to the prior quarter. Year-over-year, we saw declines in nonoperating commercial deposit balances and retail deposits. The increase in deposit balances from the prior quarter reflects higher commercial deposits due to seasonality and our focus on maintaining our relationship business. Consumer balances declined in the quarter, driven by inflationary spending and the movement of interest of rate-sensitive balances.

繼續看幻燈片 7。2022 年第四季度平均存款總額為 1457 億美元，同比下降 4%，比上一季度增加 14 億美元或 1%。與去年同期相比，我們看到非經營性商業存款餘額和零售存款有所下降。存款餘額較上一季度有所增加，反映出由於季節性因素導致商業存款增加以及我們專注於維持我們的關係業務。在通貨膨脹支出和對利率敏感的餘額的利率變動的推動下，本季度消費者余額下降。

Interest-bearing deposit costs increased 49 basis points from the prior quarter and our cumulative deposit beta was 19% since the Fed began raising interest rates in March of 2022. We continue to view our strong deposit base as a competitive strength with approximately 60% of our balances in core consumer and escrow deposits. In addition, over 80% of our commercial deposits were from core operating accounts.

自美聯儲於 2022 年 3 月開始加息以來，計息存款成本比上一季度增加了 49 個基點，我們的累計存款貝塔係數為 19%。我們繼續將我們強大的存款基礎視為一種競爭優勢，其中約 60%我們在核心消費者和託管存款中的餘額。此外，我們超過 80% 的商業存款來自核心經營賬戶。

Turning to Slide 8. Taxable equivalent net interest income was $1.2 billion for the fourth quarter compared to $1.0 billion in the year ago period and $1.2 billion in the prior quarter. Our net interest margin was 2.73% for the fourth quarter compared to 2.44% in the same period last year and 2.74% for the prior quarter.

轉到幻燈片 8。第四季度的應稅等值淨利息收入為 12 億美元，而去年同期為 10 億美元，上一季度為 12 億美元。我們第四季度的淨息差為 2.73%，去年同期為 2.44%，上一季度為 2.74%。

Year-over-year, net interest income and net interest margin benefited from higher earning asset balances and higher interest rates. Quarter-over-quarter, net interest income and the net interest margin were negatively impacted by higher interest-bearing deposit costs and a change in the funding mix.

與去年同期相比，淨利息收入和淨息差受益於更高的收益資產餘額和更高的利率。與上一季度相比，淨利息收入和淨息差受到更高的生息存款成本和資金組合變化的負面影響。

Later in the quarter, we experienced changing market conditions and customer behavior. Market rates increased more than we expected and the migration from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing commercial deposits picked up. This resulted in a higher deposit beta, lower-than-expected net interest income and net interest margin. Our outlook for 2023 has our cumulative deposit beta peaking in the mid- to high 20% range, well below our historic levels.

在本季度晚些時候，我們經歷了不斷變化的市場條件和客戶行為。市場利率漲幅超過我們的預期，從無息商業存款向有息商業存款的轉移加快。這導致較高的存款貝塔係數、低於預期的淨利息收入和淨息差。我們對 2023 年的展望是我們的累計存款貝塔值在 20% 的中高區間達到頂峰，遠低於我們的歷史水平。

Included in the appendix is additional information on our future net interest income opportunities and asset liability position. Based on our feedback from our shareholders, we have also included detail on the maturities of our interest rate swaps and short-term treasury secured.

附錄中包含有關我們未來淨利息收入機會和資產負債狀況的更多信息。根據我們股東的反饋，我們還包括了我們的利率掉期和短期國債擔保到期日的詳細信息。

As Chris mentioned in his remarks, we have been very intentional in the way we manage interest rate risk with a long-term perspective. Although our position has provided less near-term benefit, we have significant upside over the next 2 years as our swaps and short-term treasuries mature and reprice. We expect this to drive both our net interest income and our net interest margin higher over the next few years. We believe this is a true differentiator.

正如克里斯在他的發言中提到的那樣，我們一直非常有意識地從長遠角度管理利率風險。儘管我們的頭寸提供的短期收益較少，但隨著我們的掉期和短期國債到期並重新定價，我們在未來兩年內有顯著的上漲空間。我們預計這將在未來幾年推動我們的淨利息收入和淨息差上升。我們相信這是一個真正的差異化因素。

Moving to Slide 9. Noninterest income was $671 million for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $909 million for the year ago period and $683 million in the third quarter. The decline in noninterest income from the fourth quarter of 2022 reflects a $151 million decline in investment banking and debt placement fees, along with a $35 million reduction in other income primarily from market-related gains in the year ago period. Additionally, service charges on deposits were $19 million lower due to changes in our NSF/OD structure that we implemented in September as well as lower consumer mortgage income down $16 million.

轉到幻燈片 9。2022 年第四季度的非利息收入為 6.71 億美元，而去年同期為 9.09 億美元，第三季度為 6.83 億美元。與 2022 年第四季度相比，非利息收入下降反映了投資銀行業務和債務安置費用減少 1.51 億美元，以及主要來自去年同期市場相關收益的其他收入減少 3500 萬美元。此外，由於我們在 9 月份實施的 NSF/OD 結構發生變化以及消費者抵押貸款收入減少 1600 萬美元，因此存款服務費減少了 1900 萬美元。

Partially offsetting these declines was an increase in corporate services income, up $13 million due to higher derivatives income. Relative to the prior quarter, noninterest income declined $12 million. Service charge on deposit accounts accounted for the majority of the decline, down $21 million, once again reflecting our new NSF/OD fee terms. Additionally, corporate services income decreased $7 million, driven primarily from an evaluation adjustment benefit in the prior quarter. Investment banking fees increased $18 million.

由於衍生品收入增加，企業服務收入增加了 1300 萬美元，部分抵消了這些下降。與上一季度相比，非利息收入下降了 1200 萬美元。存款賬戶的服務費佔下降的大部分，減少了 2100 萬美元，再次反映了我們新的 NSF/OD 費用條款。此外，公司服務收入減少了 700 萬美元，這主要是由於上一季度的評估調整收益。投資銀行費用增加了 1800 萬美元。

I'm now on to Slide 10. Total noninterest expense for the quarter was $1.16 billion, down $14 million in the year ago period and up $50 million from last quarter. Our expenses reflect our ongoing investments in digital, analytics and our teammates. Compared to the year ago quarter, we saw declines across most nonpersonnel line items, including business services and professional fees and operating lease expense.

我現在轉到幻燈片 10。本季度的非利息總支出為 11.6 億美元，比去年同期減少 1400 萬美元，比上一季度增加 5000 萬美元。我們的開支反映了我們在數字、分析和我們的隊友方面的持續投資。與去年同期相比，我們看到大多數非人事項目都有所下降，包括商業服務和專業費用以及經營租賃費用。

Personnel expense remained flat compared to a year ago period, reflecting higher salaries and employee benefits, offset by lower incentive and stock-based compensation. Compared to the prior quarter, noninterest expense is up $50 million. Higher nonpersonnel costs drove most of the increase. Other expense increased $17 million, reflecting a pension settlement charge in the fourth quarter. Also, professional fees were higher in the quarter, some of which were temporary in nature. Personnel expense also increased, reflecting lower deferred costs from slower loan originations.

人事費用與去年同期相比持平，反映出較高的薪水和員工福利，但被較低的激勵和股票薪酬所抵消。與上一季度相比，非利息支出增加了 5000 萬美元。較高的非人事成本推動了大部分增長。其他費用增加了 1700 萬美元，反映了第四季度的養老金結算費用。此外，本季度的專業費用較高，其中一些費用是臨時性的。人事費用也有所增加，反映出貸款發放速度放緩導致遞延成本降低。

Moving on to Slide 11. Overall credit quality remains strong. For the fourth quarter, net charge-offs were $41 million or 14 basis points on average loans, which remain near historical levels. Nonperforming loans were $387 million this quarter or 32 basis points of period end loans, a decline of $3 million from the prior quarter.

轉到幻燈片 11。整體信貸質量仍然強勁。第四季度，平均貸款淨註銷額為 4100 萬美元或 14 個基點，仍接近歷史水平。本季度不良貸款為 3.87 億美元，佔期末貸款的 32 個基點，比上一季度減少 300 萬美元。

Our provision for credit losses was $265 million for the fourth quarter, which exceeded net charge-offs by $224 million. The excess provision increases our allowance for credit losses, reflecting a more cautious model-driven assumption set. For our CECL modeling, we start with the Moody's consensus scenario. This quarter, the consensus estimates reflected a marked slowdown in the economy and meaningful reductions in home prices, both of which impacted our allowance levels. Despite the increases in the allowance, our outlook for net charge-offs in 2023 of 25 to 30 basis points remains well below our through-the-cycle loss levels of 40 to 60 basis points.

我們第四季度的信貸損失準備金為 2.65 億美元，超過淨沖銷額 2.24 億美元。超額撥備增加了我們的信用損失準備金，反映了更謹慎的模型驅動假設集。對於我們的 CECL 建模，我們從穆迪的共識情景開始。本季度，共識估計反映了經濟明顯放緩和房價大幅下跌，這兩者都影響了我們的津貼水平。儘管準備金有所增加，但我們對 2023 年 25 至 30 個基點的淨沖銷前景仍遠低於我們 40 至 60 個基點的整個週期損失水平。

Now on to Slide 12. We ended the fourth quarter with common equity Tier 1 ratio of 9.1% within our targeted range of 9% to 9.5%. This provides us with sufficient capacity to continue to support our customers and their borrowing needs and to return capital to our shareholders.

現在轉到幻燈片 12。我們在第四季度末的普通股一級比率為 9.1%，處於我們 9% 至 9.5% 的目標範圍內。這使我們有足夠的能力繼續支持我們的客戶及其借貸需求，並將資金返還給我們的股東。

We will continue to manage our capital consistent with our capital priorities of: first, supporting organic growth in our business; second, paying dividends. In the fourth quarter, our Board of Directors approved a 5% increase, which now places our dividend at $0.205 per common share per quarter. And finally, repurchasing shares.

我們將繼續根據我們的資本優先事項管理我們的資本：首先，支持我們業務的有機增長；二是分紅。在第四季度，我們的董事會批准增加 5%，現在我們的股息為每季度每股普通股 0.205 美元。最後，回購股票。

Our current share repurchase authorization of $790 million is in place through the third quarter of 2023. We did not complete any share repurchases in the fourth quarter.

我們目前的 7.9 億美元股票回購授權已到 2023 年第三季度。我們在第四季度沒有完成任何股票回購。

On Slide 13 is our full year 2023 outlook. The guidance is relative to our full year 2022 results. Importantly, using the midpoints of our guidance ranges would result in another year of positive operating leverage in 2023. We expect average loans will be up between 6% and 9%. And average deposits will be flat to down 2%.

幻燈片 13 是我們的 2023 年全年展望。該指引與我們 2022 年全年的業績相關。重要的是，使用我們指導範圍的中點將導致 2023 年又是一年的正經營槓桿。我們預計平均貸款將增長 6% 至 9%。平均存款將持平至下降 2%。

Net interest income is expected to be up between 6% and 9%, reflecting growth in average loan balances and higher interest rates. Our guidance is based on the forward curve, assuming a Fed funds rate peaking at 5% in the first quarter and starting to decline in the fourth quarter. These interest rate assumptions, along with our expectations for customer behavior and the competitive pricing environment are very fluid and will continue to impact our outlook prospectively.

淨利息收入預計將增長 6% 至 9%，反映出平均貸款餘額的增長和更高的利率。我們的指引基於遠期曲線，假設聯邦基金利率在第一季度達到 5% 的峰值並在第四季度開始下降。這些利率假設以及我們對客戶行為和競爭性定價環境的預期非常不穩定，並將繼續影響我們的前景。

Noninterest income is expected to be down 1% to 3%, reflecting the implementation of our new NSF/OD fee structure last year and continued challenging capital markets activity, at least for the first half of the year. We expect noninterest expense to be relatively stable with the benefit of the cost takeout opportunities Chris described in his remarks, along with ongoing investments that we will make in our business.

非利息收入預計將下降 1% 至 3%，這反映出我們去年實施了新的 NSF/OD 費用結構，並且資本市場活動繼續充滿挑戰，至少在今年上半年是這樣。我們預計非利息支出將相對穩定，這得益於克里斯在他的言論中描述的成本削減機會，以及我們將在我們的業務中進行的持續投資。

For the year, we expect credit quality to remain strong and net charge-offs will be in the 25 to 30 basis point range, well below the through-the-cycle range of 40 to 60 basis points. Our guidance for our GAAP tax rate is approximately 19% to 20%.

今年，我們預計信貸質量將保持強勁，淨沖銷將在 25 至 30 個基點範圍內，遠低於 40 至 60 個基點的整個週期範圍。我們對 GAAP 稅率的指導約為 19% 至 20%。

Finally, shown at the bottom of our slide are our long-term targets, which remain unchanged. We expect to continue to make progress on these targets by maintaining our moderate risk profile and improving our productivity and efficiency, which will drive returns.

最後，幻燈片底部顯示的是我們的長期目標，這些目標保持不變。我們希望通過保持適度的風險狀況並提高我們的生產力和效率來繼續在這些目標上取得進展，這將推動回報。

Overall, it was a solid quarter and a very good finish to another successful year for Key. We remain confident in our ability to grow and deliver on each of our long-term targets.

總體而言，這是一個穩健的季度，也是 Key 又一個成功年度的完美收尾。我們對我們實現每個長期目標的增長和實現的能力充滿信心。

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to the operator for instructions on the Q&A portion of the call. Operator?

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，以獲取有關電話問答部分的說明。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of John Pancari from Evercore.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

I know you mentioned that you saw a step-up in deposit rates late in the fourth quarter. I wonder if you could give us a little more detail on what products and the magnitude that you saw maybe your -- how you see that falling through?

我知道你提到你看到第四季度末存款利率有所上升。我想知道你是否可以向我們提供更多關於你看到的產品和規模的更多細節 - 你如何看待它的失敗？

And then related to that, you also said that higher-than-expected pressure on deposit cost as well, not just a step up but a greater-than-expected amount of pressure. And just trying to get a feel around what areas surprised you and why do you think given the outlook around deposit pressures and rates, what was what attributed to the surprise there?

然後與此相關，您還說存款成本的壓力也高於預期，不僅是上升，而且壓力大於預期。只是想了解一下哪些領域讓您感到驚訝，以及您為什麼認為鑑於存款壓力和利率的前景，那裡的驚喜歸因於什麼？

Sure can, John. And as far as late in the quarter in late November, December, we started to see a different migration pattern as far as some of the deposits and the rates. We saw market conditions start to pick up as far as rates and many products. Our expectation coming into the quarter was continuing to drift up some of the money market rates on deposits, but the customers were migrating more towards time deposits which had a higher incremental cost than what our assumptions were as far as deposit -- money market deposit accounts.

當然可以，約翰。就在 11 月下旬、12 月的這個季度末，我們開始看到一些存款和利率出現了不同的遷移模式。就利率和許多產品而言，我們看到市場狀況開始好轉。我們進入本季度的預期是繼續提高一些貨幣市場存款利率，但客戶更多地轉向定期存款，定期存款的增量成本高於我們對存款的假設——貨幣市場存款賬戶.

We also saw a shift away from noninterest-bearing accounts at a faster pace than what we would have expected late in the quarter. And so both of those had an impact of driving net interest income down for the current quarter compared to what we would have expected even coming into the end of the quarter and is also reflected in our outlook going forward.

我們還看到從無息賬戶轉移的速度比我們在本季度末預期的要快。因此，與我們在本季度末的預期相比，這兩者都導致本季度的淨利息收入下降，這也反映在我們的未來展望中。

And Clark, I don't know if you want to offer up any thoughts as far as trends going forward as far as the deposit rates and betas and what have you...

克拉克，我不知道你是否想就存款利率和貝塔值等未來趨勢提出任何想法，你有什麼……

Sure. Thanks, Don. A little bit more just to get your question, John, a little more pressure on the commercial side than the consumer side, which would not be unexpected we did see, as Don mentioned, a rotation out of noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing, and we saw the ending balance of noninterest-bearing around 29% and that's a little bit of seasonality, and we've seen that come back. That's a ratio kind of high 20s that we would expect through the year, and that's a little bit better than where we've been historically, which we could would have been sort of mid-.

當然。謝謝，唐。約翰，只是為了回答你的問題，商業方面的壓力比消費者方面的壓力大一點，正如唐提到的那樣，我們確實看到了從無息到有息的輪換，這並不意外，我們看到不計息的期末餘額約為 29%，這有點季節性，我們已經看到它又回來了。這是我們全年預期的 20s 的高比率，這比我們歷史上的水平要好一點，我們本來可以處於中等水平。

In terms of products and rates, as Don said, CDs coming through, we'd expect the betas for the year. to be mid- to high 20s, as Don said in his prepared remarks. And again, a little bit more movement to CDs than money markets than we expected, but we've factored that in. And again, that sort of stable, high 20s noninterest-bearing ratio for the year.

在產品和費率方面，正如 Don 所說，通過 CD，我們預計今年的測試版。正如唐在他準備好的發言中所說的那樣，是 20 多歲。再一次，CD 的變動比我們預期的要多於貨幣市場，但我們已經考慮到了這一點。再一次，今年 20 年代的那種穩定的高無息比率。

John, it's Chris. It's interesting. Customer behavior is really hard to model. We wouldn't have expected that the cumulative beta for the first 3 quarters would have ever been as low as 9%. And as we got to the end of the year, it really accelerated. A lot of it was on the commercial side. A lot of it were excess deposits in places like our private banking area. So it's been interesting. This has been the steepest rate of increases in the Fed's history. And I think some of the conventional curves are sort of out the window.

約翰，是克里斯。這真有趣。客戶行為真的很難建模。我們不會預料到前 3 個季度的累計貝塔值會低至 9%。到了年底，它真的加速了。其中很多是在商業方面。其中很多是在我們私人銀行區等地方的超額存款。所以這很有趣。這是美聯儲歷史上最大幅度的加息。而且我認為一些傳統的曲線有點過時了。

Okay. Chris, that helps. And then I know you mentioned the need for investment and you're focusing on ratcheting up investments in certain areas. So I want to see if you can give us additional color on what changed there in terms of areas that you're investing in? That necessitated the greater pullback in costs elsewhere.

好的。克里斯，這有幫助。然後我知道你提到了投資的需要，你正專注於加大對某些領域的投資。所以我想看看你是否可以給我們更多關於你投資的領域發生了什麼變化的顏色？這需要更大程度地削減其他地方的成本。

Yes. So it's really a continuation of the investment, John, that we've been making. And the point I was making there was we're not going to cease to invest as we take out costs. And when we were at Investor Day a year ago, we talked about growing our consumers by 20% by 2025 focusing really on our growth markets, and we're having a lot of success with our younger customers, and we're going to continue to focus both products and marketing in that regard.

是的。所以這真的是我們一直在進行的投資的延續，約翰。我要說的是，我們不會在削減成本時停止投資。一年前我們在投資者日時，我們談到到 2025 年將我們的消費者增長 20%，真正專注於我們的增長市場，我們在年輕客戶方面取得了很大成功，我們將繼續在這方面同時關注產品和營銷。

Also, we talked about hiring bankers. We talked about -- we think we have these unique platforms that are under leveraged, and we talked about increasing our banker population by 25% by 2025. Admittedly, last year, we tapered off in the back half of the year. The market was obviously overheated. And also, frankly, we saw the downturn coming in the economy. We think will be -- it will be a very good environment to recruit and successfully bring people onto the platform going forward.

此外，我們還談到了聘請銀行家。我們談到——我們認為我們擁有這些槓桿率不足的獨特平台，我們談到到 2025 年將我們的銀行家人數增加 25%。誠然，去年，我們在下半年逐漸減少。市場明顯過熱。而且，坦率地說，我們看到了經濟衰退。我們認為這將是一個非常好的環境，可以招募並成功地將人們帶到未來的平台上。

And then lastly, it was Laurel Road and the commitment we made around Laurel Road, where we've continued to invest is that we were going to grow our members from 50,000 to 250,000. This year, we successfully grew by 30% and we've made a lot of investments expanding to nurses having a full product line there, buying GradFin, being a leader in public service loan forgiveness. And we're also going to get into the income-based forgiveness gain as well.

最後，它是勞雷爾路，我們在勞雷爾路周圍做出的承諾，我們繼續投資的地方是我們將把我們的會員從 50,000 人增加到 250,000 人。今年，我們成功地增長了 30%，我們進行了大量投資，將業務擴展到擁有完整產品線的護士，購買 GradFin，成為公共服務貸款減免領域的領導者。我們也將進入基於收入的寬恕收益。

So those are the 3 areas. And so it wasn't really new investments so much. It's a continuation of the investments we've made in critical areas of the business including around things like continuing to migrate to the cloud and investing in digital.

這就是 3 個領域。因此，這並不是真正的新投資。這是我們在業務關鍵領域所做投資的延續，包括圍繞繼續遷移到雲和數字投資等方面的投資。

Okay, Chris. No, that helps clarify that. I appreciate it. And that's it for me, and best of luck to you, Don.

好的，克里斯。不，這有助於澄清這一點。我很感激。對我來說就這些了，祝你好運，唐。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Your next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

Can you give us some more color on the reserve build this quarter. To your point, your nCino guide for '23 as well below your long-term targets. So I guess what changed in the macro environment that necessitated the reserve build? And I guess, is this you being a lot more conservative? And should we expect the reserve ratio to stabilize from here? Or could there be factors that drive that reserve ratio higher?

你能給我們更多關於本季度儲備建設的顏色嗎？就您的觀點而言，您的 23 年 nCino 指南也低於您的長期目標。所以我想宏觀環境發生了什麼變化需要儲備建設？我想，這是不是你更保守了？我們是否應該期望準備金率從這裡穩定下來？或者是否有因素推動準備金率上升？

Sure, Manan. First of all, thank you for your question. And you're right, despite the fact that we have really good credit metrics, we did, in fact, build the reserve. And so if you kind of step back for a second, kind of look at the macro perspective, we believe the economy is clearly slowing. We think the probability of a recession has increased from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of last year. Our base case, by the way, is that there will be a mild recession.

當然，馬南。首先，謝謝你的問題。你是對的，儘管我們有非常好的信用指標，但我們確實建立了儲備。因此，如果你退後一步，從宏觀角度來看，我們認為經濟明顯放緩。我們認為經濟衰退的可能性從去年第三季度到第四季度有所增加。順便說一句，我們的基本情況是將會出現溫和的衰退。

There's really 3 drivers of the CECL reserve. The first is the macro view, which I just described, which is the driver for us. The second is loan growth, and we obviously have some loan growth. The third is really idiosyncratic risks, specific portfolio, specific credit, that is not driving our reserve build at all.

CECL 儲備實際上有 3 個驅動程序。第一個是我剛才描述的宏觀觀點，它是我們的驅動力。第二是貸款增長，我們顯然有一些貸款增長。第三個是真正特殊的風險、特定的投資組合、特定的信用，這根本不會推動我們的儲備建設。

So just to kind of bring it to life for you. From the third or the fourth quarter as we look at our models, we looked at GDP declining by about 2/3 from sort of 1.3% to 0.4%. Unemployment going from, say, in the third quarter, we thought it would peak at 4.1%. We now think it will peak around 5%. But significantly, when we look at things like home price index, in the third quarter, we thought homes were going up by 1.3%. In the fourth quarter, as we modeled it, it was a decline of 4.6%. So fairly significant quarter-over-quarter change of 5.9%.

因此，只是為了讓您栩栩如生。從我們查看模型的第三或第四季度開始，我們看到 GDP 下降了約 2/3，從 1.3% 下降到 0.4%。例如，從第三季度開始，我們認為失業率將達到 4.1% 的峰值。我們現在認為它將在 5% 左右達到峰值。但值得注意的是，當我們查看房價指數時，我們認為第三季度房價上漲了 1.3%。在第四季度，正如我們建模的那樣，下降了 4.6%。因此相當顯著的季度環比變化為 5.9%。

Now to bring it back to kind of our portfolio, we, for example, have $21 billion of mortgages. That's about 18% of our loan book. It's booking about -- the FICO scores on those are, say, 7 61 from memory or some such number. We also say that 40% of our mortgages are 800 or above. And I share this texture for you because we are not worried about our mortgage book. But as we drive our CECL models, which are forward-looking, the macro drivers have significant impact. And I'm just using that as an example for why the reserve build. Does that answer your question?

現在把它帶回到我們的投資組合中，例如，我們有 210 億美元的抵押貸款。這大約占我們貸款賬簿的 18%。它正在預訂 - 那些的 FICO 分數是，比方說，記憶中的 7 61 或類似的數字。我們還說我們40%的房貸是800以上。我為您分享這種質地，因為我們不擔心我們的抵押貸款簿。但是，當我們推動具有前瞻性的 CECL 模型時，宏觀驅動因素會產生重大影響。我只是以此為例來說明為什麼要建立儲備金。這是否回答你的問題？

Yes, that's really helpful. And then if you could just round that out with how you're thinking about the NIM and just managing the NIM as you go through 2023. Earlier on, you were in the camp of the Fed keeping rates higher for longer. Has that changed? And has that changed how you're managing putting on any additional swaps or hedges on the books?

是的，這真的很有幫助。然後，如果你可以通過你對 NIM 的思考方式以及在 2023 年之前管理 NIM 來解決這個問題。早些時候，你在美聯儲的陣營中保持更高的利率。那改變了嗎？這是否改變了您管理賬簿上任何額外掉期或對沖的方式？

Well, sure. As far as how we're managing it right now, our assumption set is basically that we would just continue at this point in time to replace roll-off of swaps that we have that we're continuing to evaluate that. I think the challenge that we all have is just with this inverted yield curve is when do you pull the trigger to start to lock in some of that rollover risk and outlook. And so right now, we've not embedded any of that into our base assumptions, but it's something that we'll continue to have optionality to take care of that in the future.

嗯，當然。就我們現在的管理方式而言，我們的假設集基本上是我們將在這個時間點繼續更換我們正在繼續評估的掉期掉期。我認為我們所有人面臨的挑戰就是這種倒掛的收益率曲線，你什麼時候扣動扳機開始鎖定一些展期風險和前景。所以現在，我們還沒有將任何這些嵌入到我們的基本假設中，但我們將在未來繼續有選擇權來處理它。

Your next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just wanted to follow up on credit. So you talked about the consumer book and the FICOs. When we look at the commercial book, both on the C&I, CRE, just talk to us about the idiosyncratic risks, I mean the leverage lending book you provide on Slide 15 is relatively small. But when we think about the impact from higher rates, cooling demand and you talked about mild recession as your base case. Like where within the CRE and the C&I portfolios do you expect delinquencies to start moving higher? And where is the lost content?

我想只是想跟進信貸。所以你談到了消費者書籍和 FICO。當我們看商業書籍時，包括 C&I、CRE，只是和我們談談特殊風險，我的意思是你在幻燈片 15 上提供的槓桿借貸書籍相對較小。但是當我們考慮到利率上升、需求降溫的影響時，你談到了溫和的衰退是你的基本情況。比如在 CRE 和 C&I 投資組合中，您預計拖欠率會開始走高嗎？丟失的內容在哪裡？

Sure. Well, Ebrahim, thanks for the question. So you started at the right place where we focus. We focus any place where there's leverage. And obviously, if you think about leverage finance, which, by the way, for us is only about 2.5% of our entire loan book, and it's focused in our 7 industry verticals, and it has a pretty high turnover. But you're exactly right, where there's leverage and you go into a filed recession and you have declining EBITDA, you have to watch that very closely.

當然。好吧，易卜拉欣，謝謝你的提問。所以你從我們關注的正確地方開始。我們關注任何有影響力的地方。顯然，如果你考慮槓桿融資，順便說一下，對我們來說，槓桿融資只占我們整個貸款賬簿的 2.5%，而且它集中在我們的 7 個垂直行業，而且營業額相當高。但你是完全正確的，在有槓桿作用的地方，你進入了一個正式的衰退，你的 EBITDA 下降了，你必須非常密切地關注它。

We feel good about that portfolio. Nothing has bubbled up to the surface. But as you can imagine, we're modeling it very, very regularly.

我們對該投資組合感覺良好。沒有什麼浮出水面。但是正如您可以想像的那樣，我們非常非常定期地對其進行建模。

The next area that you mentioned, which I think is really appropriate is real estate. And real estate is an area that we look at closely. What we've done with our real estate business is we've completely rebuilt it around a business that not -- we not only put real estate loans on our books, but we also distribute a lot of paper. So it's a little bit of a different business than a lot of our competitors have, Fannie, Freddie, FHA, the life companies, the CMBS market, et cetera. So we distribute a lot of risk.

你提到的下一個領域，我認為真正合適的是房地產。房地產是我們密切關注的領域。我們對房地產業務所做的是，我們圍繞一項業務完全重建了它——我們不僅將房地產貸款記在賬簿上，而且還分發了很多文件。因此，與我們的許多競爭對手（房利美、房地美、FHA、壽險公司、CMBS 市場等）相比，它的業務略有不同。所以我們分擔了很多風險。

We're also focused on very specifically on certain asset classes. And the certain asset classes that we're focused on, first and foremost, multifamily in its broadest sense but within multifamily on affordable housing. We're watching those closely. So far, the rent uptakes are good. Rents -- the rents are still holding firm. So we feel really good about that portfolio. The portfolio that we look at very closely, and fortunately, we have very little of it.

我們還特別關注某些資產類別。我們關注的某些資產類別，首先是最廣泛意義上的多戶家庭，但在經濟適用房的多戶家庭中。我們正在密切關注這些。到目前為止，租金上漲情況良好。租金——租金仍然堅挺。所以我們對這個投資組合感覺非常好。我們非常仔細地查看投資組合，幸運的是，我們擁有的很少。

There's actually 2 portfolios. The first is B and C class office space in central business districts. Right now, we're down to $250 million, but we're watching that very closely because those buildings are multi-tenant buildings. And the reality is whether it's key cutting expenses and getting rid of occupancy costs or any other business, I think that's a real risk going forward. So we're watching that closely.

實際上有 2 個投資組合。首先是中央商務區的B級和C級辦公空間。現在，我們的資金減少到 2.5 億美元，但我們正在密切關注，因為這些建築是多租戶建築。而現實是，無論是削減開支和擺脫佔用成本還是任何其他業務，我認為這都是未來的真正風險。所以我們正在密切關注。

The other area where we only have about $1 billion of exposure is in retail. And retail is an area where we keep a close eye. So that's kind of how we're thinking about it. And as you can imagine, we are continually modeling this portfolio as we look at the delta between where they're borrowing and where their debt rolls over.

我們只有大約 10 億美元風險敞口的另一個領域是零售業。零售是我們密切關注的領域。這就是我們考慮的方式。正如您可以想像的那樣，我們正在不斷地對這個投資組合建模，因為我們會觀察他們藉款地點和債務展期地點之間的差值。

Got it. And I think in there you mentioned that you're actively derisking some of these loans. What's the market for that in terms of being able to get out of some of these credits without having to take a big mark-to-market or credit charge?

知道了。我想你在那裡提到你正在積極地降低其中一些貸款的風險。就能夠擺脫其中一些信貸而不必採取大的按市值計價或信貸收費而言，市場有什麼用？

There hasn't been -- there really hasn't been a lot of movement yet. I think people are still just like in the M&A environment, I think people are in price discovery. Obviously, if you take my example of B&C class office, there's a lot of people that have impaired equity, but I think people are going to have to, frankly, endure some more pain before there's a meeting of the minds on kind of how to restructure, how to bring in fresh equity, et cetera.

還沒有——真的還沒有太多的動作。我認為人們仍然像在併購環境中一樣，我認為人們處於價格發現中。顯然，如果你以我的 B&C 級辦公室為例，有很多人的資產受到損害，但我認為，坦率地說，人們將不得不忍受更多的痛苦，然後才能就如何重組，如何引入新的股權等等。

Got it. And just 1 question, Don, on NII. Do you think the mid- to high 20s beta is conservative enough? I'm just wondering, in a world of 5% plus redone QT, like a lot of banks are kind of nudging their expectations a bit higher. Like do you think that sets you up for more downside risk over the next few quarters? Just give us a sense of your comfort level with that beta guidance.

知道了。唐，關於 NII，只有 1 個問題。您認為 20 多歲中高水平的 Beta 是否足夠保守？我只是想知道，在 5% 加上重做 QT 的世界裡，很多銀行都在稍微提高他們的期望值。比如你認為這會讓你在接下來的幾個季度面臨更多的下行風險嗎？只需讓我們了解您對該 Beta 指南的舒適程度。

I'll go ahead and offer up some thoughts. I'm going to ask Clark to go ahead and chime in as well. But I would say that keep in mind that, as Chris mentioned earlier on, we really were kind of best-in-class for the first few quarters of this rate increase cycle that our cumulative deposit beta is at 19%. Most of the peers I'm seeing are closer to 30% already. We did do a thorough scrub as to where we see rates going. And I think what you're seeing and why we have confidence in our deposit beta assumptions is the fact that we have shifted our priority and focus over to more primacy, both on the commercial and consumer side. And we think that will continue to pay dividends for us as far as keeping our overall deposit cost down.

我會繼續並提供一些想法。我將請 Clark 繼續發言並插話。但我要說的是，請記住，正如克里斯早些時候提到的那樣，在這個加息週期的前幾個季度，我們的累計存款貝塔率為 19%，確實是同類最佳。我看到的大多數同行已經接近 30%。我們確實對我們看到的利率走向進行了徹底的清理。而且我認為你所看到的以及我們對我們的存款貝塔假設有信心的事實是我們已經將我們的優先事項和重點轉移到商業和消費者方面的更多首要地位。我們認為，就降低我們的整體存款成本而言，這將繼續為我們帶來紅利。

Clark, anything you would add there?

克拉克，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. The other point I would add is just that it's less for us about new deposit acquisition. We're always going to acquire deposits from new clients and new relationships. But a lot of what we're looking at this year is managing clients from product to product, and that just allows us a little bit more flexibility on pricing.

是的。我要補充的另一點是，對我們來說，獲取新存款的意義不大。我們總是會從新客戶和新關係中獲得存款。但我們今年關注的很多內容是從產品到產品管理客戶，這只會讓我們在定價上有更多的靈活性。

Ebrahim, the only thing I would add, I agree with everything that Don and Clark said, the thing that I will share with you though, this is sort of uncharted territory. And while we're really pleased with the trajectory of our deposit betas, we're not going to win the deposit beta battle and lose the -- win the beta battle and lose the deposit war because it's very important that we serve our clients and we keep them here a key.

Ebrahim，我唯一要補充的是，我同意 Don 和 Clark 所說的一切，不過我要與你分享的是，這是一個未知領域。雖然我們對存款測試版的軌跡非常滿意，但我們不會贏得存款測試版戰鬥並輸掉 - 贏得測試版戰鬥並輸掉存款戰爭，因為我們為客戶提供服務非常重要，並且我們把他們留在這裡一把鑰匙。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

I wanted to start on the loan outlook. If I look at where period end and average loans ended 2022, it appears that you're not looking for much loan growth in 2023 on a period-end basis. Can you confirm that and maybe give some color on why such a sluggish outlook. I don't know if you're tightening the credit box or whatnot?

我想從貸款前景開始。如果我查看 2022 年期末和平均貸款的結束位置，您似乎並沒有在期末的基礎上尋找 2023 年的貸款增長。你能否證實這一點，也許可以說明為什麼前景如此低迷。我不知道你是在收緊信貸箱還是什麼？

Steve, this is Don. And as far as the outlook, the period-end balance is sometimes can be a little misleading. So if you just look -- take a look at the fourth quarter average for total loans at $117.5 billion. Our midpoint of our guidance range is in the $120 million range, and all of that really is coming from commercial. And so with this change in our economic outlook that also influenced or determine what our allowance was. We've also pulled back on some of the loan growth outlook.

史蒂夫，這是唐。就前景而言，期末餘額有時會有點誤導。因此，如果您只看一下 - 看看第四季度的平均貸款總額為 1175 億美元。我們指導範圍的中點在 1.2 億美元範圍內，所有這些都來自商業。因此，我們經濟前景的這種變化也影響或決定了我們的津貼是多少。我們還撤回了一些貸款增長前景。

You also see, Steve, that our consumer loan balances are flat throughout next year and what our expectation is there is that we'll continue to have residential mortgage originations, that we'll continue to see some of the home equity balances trade down. And relatively flat on other consumer categories. And so it is very modest incremental growth from here, but we think it's appropriate given the backdrop of the economic outlook we have.

你還看到，史蒂夫，我們的消費貸款餘額在明年全年持平，我們的預期是我們將繼續發放住宅抵押貸款，我們將繼續看到一些房屋淨值餘額交易下降。而在其他消費品類上相對持平。因此，從這裡開始的增量增長非常溫和，但我們認為，鑑於我們的經濟前景背景，這是合適的。

Got it. Okay. Don, that's helpful. And then on the reserve build, if the reserve build was a change in the economic assumptions and not idiosyncratic risk, why did a specific reserve not go up materially in some of these consumer categories? I know they're smaller, but home equity, consumer direct card, I would have thought if you changed the unemployment rate, et cetera, we would have seen an increase in those as well.

知道了。好的。唐，這很有幫助。然後在儲備金建設上，如果儲備金建設是經濟假設的變化而不是特殊風險，那麼為什麼這些消費類別中的特定儲備金沒有大幅增加？我知道它們更小，但房屋淨值、消費者直接卡，我想如果你改變失業率等等，我們也會看到這些增加。

One of the biggest things that Chris talked about were the larger moves were this GDP coming down and also the home price index. And so what you would have seen is the residential real estate backed credits having a larger increase than some of the others. You also factor in the position that our delinquency levels in our criticized and classified levels are still very benign. And I think that's why you're not seeing some of those other higher risk categories showing increased reserves because we're not seeing the migration of those portfolios at this point in time.

克里斯談到的最重要的事情之一是更大的變動是 GDP 下降以及房價指數下降。所以你會看到住宅房地產支持的信貸比其他一些信貸有更大的增長。您還考慮到我們在批評和分類級別中的拖欠水平仍然非常良性。我認為這就是為什麼你沒有看到其他一些高風險類別顯示儲備增加的原因，因為我們目前沒有看到這些投資組合的遷移。

Got it. Okay. If I could squeeze one more in. Just looking at the NII guidance, up 6% to 9%. I know you said mid- to high 20% range for deposit beta, but what is the assumption? Is it mid or high that's underlying this guidance range? And what are you assuming the mix of noninterest-bearing is by the end of '23?

知道了。好的。如果我能再擠一個。看看 NII 指導，上漲 6% 到 9%。我知道你說存款貝塔值在 20% 的中高範圍內，但假設是什麼？該指導範圍的基礎是中位還是高位？你假設在 23 年底之前不計息的組合是什麼？

Yes. Steve, it's Clark. So it's the mid- to high question is sort of mid- to high 27-ish, 28% area for the year on the beta and then the noninterest-bearing percentage is 29%, roughly high 20s for the year.

是的。史蒂夫，是克拉克。因此，中高問題是 27-ish 的中高，28% 的年度區域，然後無息百分比為 29%，大約是今年的 20s。

Okay. So staying pretty flat.

好的。所以保持平坦。

Okay. just was a little bit lower for seasonality -- fourth on average.

好的。季節性略低一些——平均第四。

Your next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Don, I think you mentioned in your remarks that there wasn't any share repurchases completed in the fourth quarter. Maybe Chris or Don, what's the outlook for stock buybacks? I may have missed your comments if you gave it, but what's the outlook for stock repurchases in 2023?

唐，我想你在發言中提到第四季度沒有完成任何股票回購。也許克里斯或唐，股票回購的前景如何？如果你給了我可能錯過了你的評論，但 2023 年股票回購的前景如何？

Gerard, we're not assuming that there's going to be any meaningful stock repurchases. As we look at our balance sheet and supporting our clients and we look at our second priority, which is paying our dividend, I just don't see us out there repurchasing a lot of shares based on our current modeling.

杰拉德，我們不認為會有任何有意義的股票回購。當我們審視我們的資產負債表和支持我們的客戶時，我們會審視我們的第二優先事項，即支付股息，我只是不認為我們會根據我們目前的模型回購大量股票。

Very good. And then you talked a lot about what went on with the deposit betas and the mix of deposits in the quarter. Obviously, your peers have had similar comments and the difference that we saw with Key was that the margin was essentially flat where others went up. How much of the borrowings -- I noticed in your average balance sheet that you included in the press release, your short-term borrowings and long-term borrowings have gone up and they're much more expensive, of course, than deposit funding. Can you share with us your thinking on how you're using those and why they have been going up?

非常好。然後你談到了很多關於本季度存款貝塔和存款組合的情況。顯然，您的同行也有類似的評論，而我們在 Key 上看到的不同之處在於，利潤率基本持平，而其他公司則有所上升。有多少借款——我注意到你的平均資產負債表包括在新聞稿中，你的短期借款和長期借款都增加了，當然，它們比存款融資貴得多。您能否與我們分享您對如何使用它們以及為什麼它們一直在上漲的看法？

Gerard, as far as the funding, what we've seen is that the loan growth throughout the second half of the year, especially exceeded deposit growth. And so we were using FHLB and some other issuances to help address the funding needs. I would say that our loan growth outlook and our deposit outlook wouldn't suggest the continuation at the same pace as far as building that other funding sources. And so we wouldn't expect to see that same type of growth rate going forward. But near term, we're fine with that.

杰拉德，就資金而言，我們看到的是整個下半年的貸款增長，尤其是超過了存款增長。因此，我們使用 FHLB 和其他一些發行來幫助解決資金需求。我要說的是，我們的貸款增長前景和我們的存款前景不會表明在建立其他資金來源方面繼續以同樣的速度發展。因此，我們預計未來不會看到同樣類型的增長率。但在短期內，我們對此表示滿意。

But I would say, traditionally, we would look at a loan-to-deposit ratio in the 90% to 95% range, and we're still well below that. And so we've got plenty of capacity to continue to leverage that funding source as needed.

但我會說，傳統上，我們會考慮 90% 至 95% 範圍內的貸存比，但我們仍遠低於該水平。因此，我們有足夠的能力根據需要繼續利用該資金來源。

Very good. And Don, good luck in your future endeavors.

非常好。唐，祝你在未來的努力中好運。

Thanks, Gerard. I appreciate it.

謝謝，杰拉德。我很感激。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

Don, with regard to the $1.1 billion of NII repricing benefits to which you guys alluded I was wondering if you could just sort of walk through the trajectory of when and how those kick in? I mean I see the repricing numbers in the appendix, which is very helpful. But just would be curious to hear kind of more vocally how you think about it, maybe put it another way or I wonder if there's an easy frame of reference. What would first quarter '23 NII look like versus, say, fourth quarter '23 or first quarter '24? Not looking for specific numbers, but is there an easy way to say, "Hey, we sort of trough here and then start to accelerate meaningfully off of here?" And if there's a time frame around that, something like that?

唐，關於你們提到的 11 億美元的 NII 重新定價收益，我想知道你們是否可以大致了解一下這些收益何時以及如何發揮作用的軌跡？我的意思是我在附錄中看到了重新定價的數字，這非常有幫助。但是我很想知道您是如何看待它的，或者換一種說法，或者我想知道是否有一個簡單的參考框架。 23 年第一季度 NII 與 23 年第四季度或 24 年第一季度相比會是什麼樣子？不是尋找具體數字，而是有一種簡單的方法可以說，“嘿，我們在這裡有點低谷，然後開始有意義地加速離開這裡？”如果有一個時間框架，類似的東西？

Good. And I will offer a couple of quick comments, but turn it over to Clark because Clark could be the one that's here to deal with that going forward. And I won't be around. So we'll go ahead and pass on it from that perspective. One thing I want to highlight, though, Scott, is as we take a look, for example, you mentioned in the first quarter of '23. Keep in mind, there are some things that impact the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter that are more seasonal. Day count-related issues cost about $20 million from where the fourth quarter is to the first quarter.

好的。我將提供幾條簡短的評論，但將其轉交給克拉克，因為克拉克可能是未來處理此事的人。我不會在附近。所以我們將繼續從這個角度傳遞它。不過，斯科特，我想強調的一件事是，例如，你在 23 年第一季度提到的。請記住，與第四季度相比，影響第一季度的一些因素更具季節性。從第四季度到第一季度，與天數相關的問題花費了大約 2000 萬美元。

We also typically see fee income drop from the fourth quarter to first quarter given some of the refinance activity on the loan side. And so we would see the first quarter traditionally being the low point for both our net interest income and net interest margin and would expect to see growth from there. And Clark has been spending a lot of time taking a look at strategies as far as the swaps and treasury.

考慮到貸款方面的一些再融資活動，我們通常還會看到從第四季度到第一季度的費用收入下降。因此，我們會看到第一季度傳統上是我們的淨利息收入和淨息差的低點，並且預計會從那裡看到增長。克拉克一直在花很多時間研究掉期和國債方面的策略。

So Clark, can you take it from there as far as other insights?

那麼克拉克，你能從那裡得到其他見解嗎？

Sure. Just to try to address your question directly, Scott. I think really, the majority of the value is going to come in '24. If you think about what's coming off in swaps and treasuries in '23. That number is about $7 billion to $7.5 billion. It's more like $15 million and $24 million. So think about that kind of 2/3, 1/3 almost ratio.

當然。斯科特，我只是想直接回答你的問題。我真的認為，大部分價值將在 24 年出現。如果你想一想 23 年掉期和國債的情況。這個數字約為 70 億至 75 億美元。它更像是1500萬美元和2400萬美元。所以想想那種2/3，1/3差不多的比例。

I'd say, of the number we've shared, which is, again, just to remind you, kind of taking all $29 billion of swaps and $9 billion of treasuries and spot pricing them, again, I think you'd see about 1/3 of that benefit in the '23 exit run rate. So the beginnings of some steepness in that NIM and then more of that pulling through in '24 as you'd see again, the majority of that maybe 2/3 or 3/4 of that value starting to come through by the end of '24.

我要說的是，關於我們分享的數字，再次提醒你，將所有 290 億美元的掉期交易和 90 億美元的國債進行現貨定價，我想你會看到大約'23 退出運行率中有 1/3 的收益。因此，NIM 開始出現一些陡峭的趨勢，然後像你再次看到的那樣在 24 年開始出現更多的陡峭，其中大部分可能是該值的 2/3 或 3/4 到 2018 年底開始出現24.

Okay. Perfect. And I guess out of curiosity, I'm a little surprised at how well the estimate kind of held in $1.1 billion versus -- I think you were saying $1.2 billion last quarter, just given all the changes in the way the curve has behaved. What does it take to really move that number one way or another? Or is that sort of a $1 billion plus kind of a pretty sturdy number almost regardless of the way things behave.

好的。完美的。我想出於好奇，我對 11 億美元的估計保持得如此之好感到有點驚訝——我想你上個季度說的是 12 億美元，只是考慮到曲線表現方式的所有變化。真正以某種方式移動該數字需要什麼？或者，不管事情的表現如何，10 億美元以上是一個相當穩固的數字。

I'd say the biggest impact there is the movement in the 2-year end of the curve. And what we saw was the longer end rates moved a lot more significantly than 2-year point.

我想說最大的影響是曲線 2 年末的變動。我們看到的是，與 2 年期利率相比，較長期利率的變化要大得多。

Okay. All right. Perfect. And Don, best wishes.

好的。好的。完美的。唐，最良好的祝愿。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Mike Mayo。

You guys see financing to a wholesale company from both the lending side and the capital market side and one topic during this earnings season is the capital market conditions are a lot tougher whereas the lending conditions are not that much tougher. So when do you think these will converge. In other words, the pricing and capital market is much more difficult than the pricing in the lending markets? Are you seeing any firming up or not?

你們看到從貸款方面和資本市場方面向一家批發公司融資，在這個財報季的一個話題是資本市場條件要嚴酷得多，而貸款條件並沒有那麼嚴酷。那麼你認為這些什麼時候會收斂。也就是說，定價和資本市場比借貸市場定價難多了？你看到有沒有變硬？

So the answer is, Mike, it depends. And when I say it depends, it depends on kind of what the customer strategy is. So 50% of our loans are to investment-grade customers. And the adjustments there are immediate. There's a bunch of different inputs, whether people are hedging, putting a swap on. There's multiple people looking at it, et cetera. Where there's a disconnect, and I don't really think the disconnect goes away is in those kind of quality middle-market companies that one bank or one fund can finance. And I don't think we've seen -- no, I don't think. We haven't seen the adjustment there that you would expect.

所以答案是，邁克，這取決於。當我說這取決於時，它取決於客戶策略的種類。所以我們 50% 的貸款是給投資級客戶的。那裡的調整是立竿見影的。有很多不同的輸入，人們是否在對沖，進行掉期交易。有很多人在看它，等等。存在脫節的地方，我真的不認為脫節會消失在那些一家銀行或一個基金可以資助的優質中間市場公司中。而且我不認為我們已經看到 - 不，我不認為。我們還沒有看到您期望的調整。

Okay. Do you expect that to change coming up? And just your general outlook on capital markets, that's a nice tailwind at times recently set a headwind.

好的。你希望這會改變嗎？就您對資本市場的總體看法而言，這是一個很好的順風，但最近有時會成為逆風。

Sure. So I think -- look, I think, ultimately, things get repriced and it takes time, whether you're talking about bank debt going into the middle market or you're talking about people doing major strategic acquisitions. My experience is it takes literally over a year for people to kind of readjust their expectations. And so we're obviously easily 6 months into this but I think the first half in capital markets is going to be challenging because people still remember what the business or the financing was worth, say, 6 or 8 or 9 months ago. But eventually -- and by the way, anyone that's a buyer is acutely aware of how things have been repriced. But those will convert. And I think it's going to be -- I think it will be challenging in the first half of the year, Mike, and I think this big pent-up backlog will start to kind of -- as people go through price discovery, will start to clear out in the second part of -- second half of the year.

當然。所以我認為——看，我認為，最終，事情會重新定價，這需要時間，無論你是在談論銀行債務進入中間市場，還是在談論人們進行重大戰略收購。我的經驗是，人們實際上需要一年多的時間才能重新調整他們的期望。因此，我們顯然很容易進入 6 個月，但我認為資本市場的上半年將充滿挑戰，因為人們仍然記得 6 或 8 或 9 個月前的業務或融資價值。但最終 - 順便說一句，任何買家都敏銳地意識到事情是如何重新定價的。但那些會轉變。而且我認為這將是 - 我認為這將在今年上半年充滿挑戰，邁克，而且我認為這個被壓抑的大量積壓將開始 - 隨著人們經歷價格發現，將開始在下半年的下半年清除。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Don, best wishes as well for me. I just have to come back and just super clarify, Don, the 27%, 28% beta for cumulative, that is interest-bearing that compares to the 19% through 3 quarters?

唐，也祝福我。我只需要回來超級澄清一下，Don，累積的 27%、28% beta，與 3 個季度的 19% 相比，這是有息的嗎？

Absolutely, yes.

絕對沒錯。

Okay, cool. And then -- so just I guess the comparison question that I think continues to come up is just that many peers are talking mid-30s, even low 40s in some of the calls that we've heard so far. So can you just kind of go one step deeper into the type of pricing assumptions and, I guess, within products and businesses that just gives you that much better relative confidence to peers?

好的，酷。然後 - 所以我想我認為繼續出現的比較問題只是許多同行在我們迄今為止聽到的一些電話中談論 30 多歲，甚至低 40 多歲。那麼，您能否更深入地了解定價假設的類型，我想，在產品和業務中，這些假設只會讓您對同行有更好的相對信心？

Sure, Ken, it's Clark. So I'll pick that up. Again, for us, what we saw in the fourth quarter and what we're looking at in '23 is much less about new to Key deposits where those kind of new business rates are much higher and necessarily have to be higher to bring them in versus motion in the book of noninterest-bearing, interest-bearing or from different accounts to different account where we can manage that transition a little more comfortably.

當然，肯，是克拉克。所以我會選擇它。再次，對我們來說，我們在第四季度看到的和我們在 23 年看到的與 Key 存款的新情況要少得多，在這些新業務中，這類新業務的利率要高得多，而且必須更高才能將它們引入與賬簿中的不計息、計息或從不同賬戶到不同賬戶的動議相比，我們可以更輕鬆地管理這種轉變。

And given that we're avoiding, we think, in large part, is the significant marginal cost of funds that the new price or new offer dollar requires in repricing the larger book.

考慮到我們正在避免，我們認為，在很大程度上，新價格或新報價美元在重新定價更大的賬簿時需要大量的資金邊際成本。

The only other thing I would add, Ken, is that right now, we're at 19% cumulative. I think most of our peers are close to 30%. And so by them going to 40%, it's the same thing as that's going to high 20s. So the incremental change from this point forward is probably fairly consistent. It's just that we're at a better starting point than peers.

肯，我唯一要補充的是，現在我們的累積率為 19%。我認為我們大多數同行都接近 30%。因此，當他們達到 40% 時，這與達到 20 多歲是一樣的。因此，從這一點開始的增量變化可能相當一致。只是我們的起點比同行更好。

Yes, that makes sense. It does seem like though to get to that point, your incremental interest-bearing deposit costs have to be -- the betas have to be lower than the 33% in the fourth quarter to square to that.

是的，這是有道理的。看起來確實要達到這一點，你的增量計息存款成本必須是——貝塔值必須低於第四季度的 33% 才能與之相符。

As far as a cumulative, probably not because you've only got a 50 basis point increase going forward as far as rates in 2023, but we can go back and reverse engineer the math, but I think it still lines up.

就累積而言，可能不是因為 2023 年的利率只有 50 個基點的增長，但我們可以回過頭來對數學進行逆向工程，但我認為它仍然是一致的。

Okay. Just one quick one. Laurel Road origination outlook, can you give us your updated thoughts there?

好的。只是一個快速的。 Laurel Road 的起源前景，你能告訴我們你在那裡的最新想法嗎？

Sure, Ken. So Laurel Road, obviously, from a straight origination outlook perspective, has been challenged. It's been challenged really by 3 things. One is the federal loan student payment holiday, that's a challenge. I think that's been extended several times. The next is just the rising interest rates, which are a challenge. And the third challenge that we've had there is all the discussion around student loan debt forgiveness. Obviously, I think, has some borrowers wanting to stay on the sidelines to preserve optionality.

當然，肯。因此，從直接的起源觀點來看，勞雷爾路顯然受到了挑戰。它確實受到了三件事的挑戰。一個是聯邦貸款學生還款假期，這是一個挑戰。我認為這已經延長了好幾次。其次是利率上升，這是一個挑戰。我們遇到的第三個挑戰是圍繞學生貸款債務減免的所有討論。我認為，顯然有一些借款人希望保持觀望以保留選擇性。

Having said all of that, I was impressed that we were able to originate last year, $1.5 billion of refinance loans. But even a bigger picture, Ken, is we are trying to create a national digital affinity bank. So first of all, those originations will come back, and they'll come back when there's clarity around all the issues I just talked about. And there's a bunch of raw material being priced right now that you'll be able to refinance advantageously. But in the meantime, what we've done is build this national digital affinity bank that has a full suite of products for doctors, a whole suite of products for nurses. We're getting a 30% cross-sell on the business that we do. So there's no question that originations have been challenged, and they'll continue to be challenged in the very near term. But what we're trying to do there is a lot broader.

說了這麼多，令我印象深刻的是我們去年能夠發放 15 億美元的再融資貸款。但更重要的是，肯，我們正在努力創建一個全國性的數字親和力銀行。所以首先，那些起源會回來，當我剛才談到的所有問題都變得清晰時，它們就會回來。現在有大量原材料正在定價，您將能夠以有利的方式進行再融資。但與此同時，我們所做的是建立這個國家數字親和力銀行，為醫生提供全套產品，為護士提供全套產品。我們的業務獲得 30% 的交叉銷售。所以毫無疑問，起源已經受到挑戰，並且它們將在短期內繼續受到挑戰。但我們正在努力做的事情要廣泛得多。

This GradFin business that we bought is really interesting because they're a leader in public service loan forgiveness and where you're going to see a lot of discussion going forward is around this income-based repayments. And we're kind of uniquely qualified to be in their advising on that. Any time we advise people, obviously, we'll bring them on as full customers. So does that answer your question?

我們收購的這家 GradFin 企業非常有趣，因為他們是公共服務貸款減免領域的領導者，未來你會看到很多關於這種基於收入的還款的討論。我們有獨特的資格為他們提供建議。顯然，無論何時我們向人們提供建議，我們都會讓他們成為正式客戶。那麼這是否回答了您的問題？

No. It does.

不，是的。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Sorry if I missed it, but what part of the yield curve are we most concerned about as we think about your fixed rate assets rolling? And I realize there might be a variety of kind of parts because from the short term from the longer term. But as we think about, I think that $1.1 billion, you said, what part of the yield curves should we watch, which obviously longer rates coming in, but shorter rates staying high.

對不起，如果我錯過了，但是當我們考慮您的固定利率資產滾動時，我們最關心收益率曲線的哪一部分？我意識到可能會有各種各樣的部分，因為從長期來看是短期的。但正如我們所想的那樣，我認為這 11 億美元，你說，我們應該關注收益率曲線的哪一部分，這顯然是更長的利率進入，但更短的利率保持高位。

Yes. Matt, as far as the $1.1 billion, it's really a 2- to 3-year into the curve, and that's where we would be looking to extend those swaps when we're in a position to do that. And so it is in that portion of the yield curve. Beyond that, we also have a little over $1 billion a quarter and roll over our bond portfolio. And we tend to look at somewhere around the 5-year end of the curve there. We tend to do more CMO structures and shorter pass-through like 15-year type pass-through assets as far as our normal investment strategy there.

是的。馬特，就 11 億美元而言，這實際上是一個 2 到 3 年的曲線，當我們能夠做到這一點時，這就是我們希望延長這些掉期的地方。收益率曲線的那部分也是如此。除此之外，我們每個季度還有略高於 10 億美元的資金用於滾動我們的債券投資組合。我們傾向於關注曲線 5 年末附近的某個地方。就我們在那裡的正常投資策略而言，我們傾向於做更多的 CMO 結構和更短的傳遞，比如 15 年期類型的傳遞資產。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Winter from D.A. Davidson.

你的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Peter Winter。戴維森。

Chris, I heard the comments on the capital markets in the second half of the year. I was just wondering if you could give some more color about the moving parts to the fee income in '23 being down 1% to 3%?

克里斯，我聽到了下半年對資本市場的評論。我只是想知道您是否可以為 23 年的費用收入下降 1% 至 3% 的移動部分提供更多顏色？

Sure. So there's a few areas where we will get pick up and then there's a few areas where we've got some headwinds. The areas where we'll get pickup is in our investment banking area. We'll get some pickup in cards and payments. We're going to pick up and trust Don, to cover the other puts and takes?

當然。因此，在一些領域我們會有所起色，然後在一些領域我們遇到了一些阻力。我們將獲得皮卡的區域是在我們的投資銀行領域。我們會收到一些卡和付款。我們要接受並信任唐，以彌補其他的投入和損失？

Sure. The largest decline for us will be in the deposit service charges category. We mentioned that this quarter was the first full quarter of the implementation of NSF/OD fee. There's about another $70 million impact in '23 compared to '22 for that. And our outlook right now also would suggest that we think that our corporate services income will be down year-over-year just because we've had such a strong program this year as far as the derivatives, interest rate swaps and what have you for customers. And we think that with less rate volatility, we'll see less opportunity there for that category. That's the blended impact as to how we get to that down 1% to 3%.

當然。對我們來說，降幅最大的將是存款服務費類別。我們提到本季度是 NSF/OD 費用實施的第一個完整季度。與 22 年相比，23 年還有大約 7000 萬美元的影響。我們現在的前景也表明，我們認為我們的企業服務收入將同比下降，因為我們今年在衍生品、利率掉期和你想要什麼方面有如此強大的計劃顧客。而且我們認為，隨著利率波動的減少，我們會看到該類別的機會減少。這就是我們如何將其降低 1% 至 3% 的綜合影響。

Got it. And then the loan-to-deposit ratio is now at 85%. Is there a certain level that you don't want to go above? And secondly, I'm assuming that you're going to continue to let securities cash flows and use those to kind of help support loan growth?

知道了。然後貸存比現在是85%。是否存在您不想超越的特定級別？其次，我假設您將繼續讓證券現金流並使用它們來幫助支持貸款增長？

We -- typically, we target between 90% and 95%. It's been a long time since we've been up at that level, but that's where we think our balance sheet is still very efficient and access to the capital markets for that national funding source is available and supports that.

我們——通常，我們的目標是 90% 到 95%。自從我們達到那個水平以來已經有很長一段時間了，但我們認為我們的資產負債表仍然非常有效，並且可以獲得併支持該國家資金來源進入資本市場的機會。

As the second part of the question was -- I apologize, Peter, remind me.

由於問題的第二部分是——我很抱歉，Peter，提醒我。

Sure. Just using securities cash flows...

當然。僅使用證券現金流...

I apologize. What we've talked about a lot is that we've got that $9 billion of short-term treasuries that start to mature later in '23 and throughout that can be a very good source of liquidity for us. And we're really indifferent whether that replaces funding or whether we roll that over into new securities. But if you look at the rest of the portfolio, it's about $40 billion, and we think that's a good core size. We can let run off there, fund some of the liquidity needs on a short-term basis, but longer term, we think that, that's probably a good relative size for the portfolio given our overall liquidity management position.

我道歉。我們經常談論的是，我們擁有 90 億美元的短期國債，這些國債將在 23 世紀後期開始到期，並且在整個過程中，這對我們來說是一個非常好的流動性來源。我們真的無動於衷，無論是取代資金還是將其轉入新證券。但如果你看看投資組合的其餘部分，它約為 400 億美元，我們認為這是一個很好的核心規模。我們可以放手一搏，在短期內為部分流動性需求提供資金，但從長遠來看，我們認為，鑑於我們的整體流動性管理狀況，這可能是投資組合的一個很好的相對規模。

Peter, the other thing that I would add to that, as you think about the puts and takes on the balance sheet is that in the fourth quarter, for example, we put 24% of the capital that we raised, which was $33 billion on our balance sheet. Historically, that number has been -- so with the dislocation in all the capital markets, we're able to structure things in a manner that we want and put them on our balance sheet. As these capital markets work their way out that won't -- will basically start deviating back to kind of 18-type percent as opposed to 24%. So that's just a little bit of a different wrinkle that I think is -- as I said, short term over the next half a year or so.

彼得，我要補充的另一件事是，當你考慮資產負債表上的看跌期權時，例如，在第四季度，我們將籌集到的資本的 24%，即 330 億美元投入到我們的資產負債表。從歷史上看，這個數字一直是——所以隨著所有資本市場的混亂，我們能夠以我們想要的方式構建事物並將它們放在我們的資產負債表上。隨著這些資本市場走出困境，基本上不會 - 將開始偏離 18% 的百分比，而不是 24%。所以這只是我認為的一點點不同的皺紋——正如我所說，在未來半年左右的短期內。

Got it. And Don, best of luck and it's been a pleasure working with you.

知道了。唐，祝你好運，很高興與你合作。

Right back at you, Peter. Thanks so much.

馬上回到你身邊，彼得。非常感謝。

And at this time, there are no further questions. I'll turn it back to you for any closing remarks.

而此時，沒有進一步的問題。如果有任何結束語，我會把它還給你。

Well, thank you, operator, and thank you for participating in our conference call. If you have any follow-up questions, you can direct them to our Investor Relations team, (216) 689-4221. And I just want to thank everybody for your interest in Key. And on that note, we will hang up. Thank you.

好吧，謝謝接線員，也感謝您參加我們的電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，可以直接聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊，電話 (216) 689-4221。我只想感謝大家對 Key 的興趣。就此而言，我們將掛斷電話。謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。