KeyCorp (KEY) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to KeyCorp's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to the Chairman and CEO, Chris Gorman. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 KeyCorp 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給董事長兼首席執行官克里斯·戈爾曼。請繼續。

Well, thank you for joining us for KeyCorp's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Don Kimble, our Chief Financial Officer; Clark Khayat, our Chief Strategy Officer; and Mark Midkiff, our Chief Risk Officer.

好吧，感謝您參加 KeyCorp 的 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席財務官 Don Kimble；我們的首席戰略官 Clark Khayat；和我們的首席風險官 Mark Midkiff。

On Slide 2, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosure and non-GAAP financial measures. It covers our presentation materials and comments as well as the question-and-answer segment of our call.

在幻燈片 2 上，您會看到我們關於前瞻性披露和非公認會計原則財務指標的聲明。它涵蓋了我們的演示材料和評論以及我們電話的問答部分。

I am now moving to Slide 3. This morning, we reported earnings of $513 million or $0.55 per common share. Our results included $0.06 per share of additional loan loss provision in excess of net charge-offs. Revenue was up 5% relative to the second quarter, driven by higher net interest income, with a 13 basis point increase in our net interest margin. One thing that sets Key apart is our approach to managing interest rate risk. We have been very deliberate and intentional in managing with a long-term perspective. While our net interest income is expected to be up double digits this year, our balance sheet positioning presents a unique and significant upside for Key over the next 2 years.

我現在轉到幻燈片 3。今天早上，我們報告了 5.13 億美元或每股普通股 0.55 美元的收益。我們的結果包括每股 0.06 美元的額外貸款損失準備金超過淨沖銷。在淨利息收入增加的推動下，收入比第二季度增長了 5%，我們的淨息差增加了 13 個基點。 Key 與眾不同的一件事是我們管理利率風險的方法。我們從長遠的角度進行管理是非常慎重和有意的。雖然我們今年的淨利息收入預計將增長兩位數，但我們的資產負債表定位為 Key 在未來 2 年提供了獨特而顯著的上行空間。

Even in the event that rates remain at current levels, we will experience a meaningful benefit as our securities and swaps reprice. If we were to reprice our existing short-term treasuries and swaps at today's interest rates, we would have an annualized net interest income benefit of over $1.2 billion. Our balance sheet benefits from our strong stable deposit base. Approximately 60% of our deposits are in stable, low-cost retail and escrow balances.

即使利率保持在當前水平，隨著我們的證券和掉期重新定價，我們也將獲得有意義的收益。如果我們以今天的利率重新定價我們現有的短期國債和掉期，我們將獲得超過 12 億美元的年化淨利息收入收益。我們的資產負債表受益於我們強大穩定的存款基礎。我們大約 60% 的存款是穩定、低成本的零售和託管餘額。

In our commercial businesses, approximately 85% of our deposits are from core operating accounts. We grew our loans again this quarter as we continue to add and expand relationships with our targeted clients. Our growth came from both our commercial and our consumer businesses. We remain diligent in our underwriting practices and have walked away from business that does not meet our moderate risk profile.

在我們的商業業務中，我們約 85% 的存款來自核心經營賬戶。隨著我們繼續增加和擴大與目標客戶的關係，本季度我們再次增加了貸款。我們的增長來自我們的商業和消費業務。我們在承保實踐中保持勤奮，並放棄了不符合我們中等風險狀況的業務。

Our fee-based businesses continue to reflect current market conditions. Investment banking and debt placement fees were up $5 million from the prior quarter, but down meaningfully from the year-ago period, reflecting the slowdown in the capital markets. The new issue equity market is virtually nonexistent, and the M&A market is currently engaged in price discovery. Our pipelines remain solid, particularly in M&A. However, the pull-through rate continues to be adversely impacted by market uncertainty.

我們的收費業務繼續反映當前的市場狀況。投資銀行和債務配售費用比上一季度增加了 500 萬美元，但比去年同期顯著下降，反映了資本市場的放緩。新股市場幾乎不存在，併購市場目前正在進行價格發現。我們的管道仍然穩固，尤其是在併購方面。然而，通過率繼續受到市場不確定性的不利影響。

We continue to see more activity moving on to our balance sheet. In the third quarter, we raised a record $39 billion for our clients, of which 23% was retained on our balance sheet, well above our long-term average of 18%. We will continue to do what is best for our clients, including offering on and off-balance sheet solutions.

我們繼續看到更多的活動轉移到我們的資產負債表上。第三季度，我們為客戶籌集了創紀錄的 390 億美元，其中 23% 保留在我們的資產負債表上，遠高於我們 18% 的長期平均水平。我們將繼續為客戶做最好的事情，包括提供表內和表外解決方案。

Importantly, we continue to make progress with respect to our targeted scale sectors, which are not only high growth opportunities for Key, but areas that matter to both our country and our economy. We have made a conscious decision to invest and focus our resources in certain vital growing sectors, including health care, renewable energy and affordable housing that impact both our clients and our communities.

重要的是，我們在目標規模行業方面繼續取得進展，這不僅是 Key 的高增長機會，而且對我們的國家和經濟都至關重要。我們有意識地決定將我們的資源投資和集中在某些重要的增長領域，包括影響我們客戶和社區的醫療保健、可再生能源和經濟適用房。

Both renewable energy and affordable housing are areas of investment and recently passed federal legislation. Combined, The Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill have allocated over $300 billion for energy transition.

可再生能源和經濟適用房都是投資領域，最近通過了聯邦立法。 《降低通脹法案》和《兩黨基礎設施法案》加起來已為能源轉型撥款超過 3000 億美元。

In health care, we are growing relationships with significant health care providers and expanding our Laurel Road business, including our recent market extension to include nurses. We are also very pleased with the early results from our May 2022 acquisition of GradFin. Since the GradFin team joined Key, they have held over 14,000 individual consultations for refinance and public service loan forgiveness. These consultations are with prequalified credential prospects, all new to Key.

在醫療保健方面，我們正在與重要的醫療保健提供者建立關係，並擴大我們的 Laurel Road 業務，包括我們最近將市場擴展到包括護士在內。我們也對 2022 年 5 月收購 GradFin 的早期結果感到非常滿意。自 GradFin 團隊加入 Key 以來，他們已就再融資和公共服務貸款減免進行了 14,000 多次個人諮詢。這些諮詢是通過資格預審的潛在客戶，對 Key 來說都是全新的。

Our expenses continue to reflect our investments in our teammates, digital and analytics. We continue to balance expense discipline with investments for the future. Credit quality remained strong this quarter with net charge-offs as a percentage of average loans of 15 basis points. Nonperforming loans declined from the prior quarter. We remain committed to delivering sound, profitable growth by maintaining our discipline with respect to risk.

我們的開支繼續反映我們對隊友、數字和分析的投資。我們將繼續平衡開支紀律與未來投資。本季度信貸質量保持強勁，淨沖銷占平均貸款的百分比為 15 個基點。不良貸款較上一季度有所下降。我們仍然致力於通過保持我們在風險方面的紀律來實現穩健、盈利的增長。

We will continue to support our clients while maintaining our moderate risk profile, which positions the company to perform well through all business cycles. Our capital remains a strength, providing us with sufficient capacity to support our clients and return capital to our shareholders.

我們將繼續支持我們的客戶，同時保持我們適度的風險狀況，這使公司能夠在所有商業周期中表現良好。我們的資本仍然是一種優勢，為我們提供了足夠的能力來支持我們的客戶並將資本返還給我們的股東。

Our fourth quarter guidance keeps us on the path to deliver positive operating leverage again in 2022 and concurrently make progress against each of our long-term goals. We also continue to make tangible progress against the 3 commitments we announced earlier this year at our Investor Day. These goals for 2025 are as follows: growing relationship households in our consumer business by 20%, growing our senior bankers by 25% and growing our Laurel Road member households to 250,000 from 50,000. We are on pace to achieve all 3 measures.

我們的第四季度指引使我們能夠在 2022 年再次提供積極的經營槓桿，同時在實現我們的每一個長期目標方面取得進展。我們還在今年早些時候在投資者日宣布的三項承諾方面繼續取得切實進展。 2025 年的目標如下：將我們的消費業務中的關係家庭增加 20%，將我們的高級銀行家增加 25%，並將我們的 Laurel Road 成員家庭從 50,000 增加到 250,000。我們正在努力實現所有 3 項措施。

We have grown consumer households and Laurel Road members as well as a number of our senior bankers. Although our senior banker hires have been slower in the back half of this year, reflecting current market conditions. Overall, Key delivered another solid quarter. I remain confident in our future and our ability to create value for all of our stakeholders.

我們已經壯大了消費者家庭和 Laurel Road 成員以及我們的一些高級銀行家。儘管我們的高級銀行家招聘在今年下半年有所放緩，但這反映了當前的市場狀況。總體而言，Key 實現了又一個穩健的季度。我對我們的未來以及我們為所有利益相關者創造價值的能力充滿信心。

With that, I will turn it over to Don to provide more details on the results of the quarter and our outlook. Don?

有了這個，我將把它交給唐，以提供有關本季度結果和我們前景的更多細節。大學教師？

Thanks, Chris. I'm now on Slide 5. For the third quarter, net income from continuing operations was $0.55 per common share, up $0.01 from the prior quarter and down $0.10 from last year. Our results in the current quarter reflect strong core operating performance and the resiliency of our business model as we continue to navigate through the current market conditions. Pre-provision net revenues was up 9% from the second quarter, with a 5% increase in revenue driven by loan growth and by the way that we positioned our balance sheet to benefit from higher interest rates. Our results also reflect our ongoing focus on expense management and our strong risk profile.

謝謝，克里斯。我現在在幻燈片 5 上。第三季度，持續經營業務的淨收入為每股普通股 0.55 美元，比上一季度增加 0.01 美元，比去年減少 0.10 美元。我們在本季度的業績反映了強勁的核心運營業績和我們業務模式的彈性，因為我們繼續在當前的市場條件下導航。撥備前淨收入比第二季度增長 9%，收入增長 5% 是由於貸款增長以及我們將資產負債表定位為受益於更高的利率的方式。我們的結果還反映了我們對費用管理的持續關注和我們強大的風險狀況。

Turning to Slide 6. Average loans for the quarter were $114 billion, up 14% from the year-ago period and up 5% from the prior quarter. We continue to add and deepen client relationships across our franchise, which drove loan growth in both our commercial and consumer businesses. Commercial loans increased 5% from last quarter, reflecting broad-based growth across our industry verticals.

轉到幻燈片 6。本季度的平均貸款為 1140 億美元，比去年同期增長 14%，比上一季度增長 5%。我們繼續在我們的特許經營中增加和深化客戶關係，這推動了我們商業和消費業務的貸款增長。商業貸款比上一季度增長 5%，反映了我們垂直行業的廣泛增長。

Our consumer business continue to be strong -- continued with its strong performance as we saw residential real estate originations of $1.9 billion. Consistent with our focus of health -- on health care segment, 30% of our consumer mortgage originations were to health care professionals. Laurel Road originated approximately $200 million of loans this quarter, reflecting the ongoing federal student loan payment holiday as well as the impact of interest rates.

我們的消費業務繼續強勁——繼續保持強勁表現，因為我們看到住宅房地產的起源為 19 億美元。與我們對健康的關註一致——在醫療保健領域，我們 30% 的消費者抵押貸款是針對醫療保健專業人士的。 Laurel Road 本季度發放了大約 2 億美元的貸款，反映了正在進行的聯邦學生貸款支付假期以及利率的影響。

Continuing on Slide 7. Average deposits totaled $144 billion for the third quarter of 2022, down $3 billion or 2% compared to both the prior quarter and the year-ago period. Year-over-year, we saw a decline in nonoperating commercial deposit balances, partially offset by an increase in retail deposits. The decline from the prior quarter reflected lower commercial and consumer balances, both areas were impacted by a reduction in stimulus-related funds. Interest-bearing deposit costs increased 17 basis points from the prior quarter. This resulted in a cumulative deposit beta of 9%. We continue to have a strong, stable core deposit base with consumer deposits accounting for approximately 60% of our total deposit mix. In addition, 85% of our commercial deposits are from core operating accounts.

繼續幻燈片 7。2022 年第三季度的平均存款總額為 1440 億美元，與上一季度和去年同期相比下降了 30 億美元或 2%。與去年同期相比，我們看到非經營性商業存款餘額下降，部分被零售存款的增加所抵消。與上一季度相比的下降反映了商業和消費者余額的下降，這兩個領域都受到刺激相關資金減少的影響。有息存款成本比上一季度增加了 17 個基點。這導致累積存款貝塔係數為 9%。我們繼續擁有強大、穩定的核心存款基礎，消費存款約占我們總存款組合的 60%。此外，我們 85% 的商業存款來自核心經營賬戶。

Turning to Slide 8. Taxable equivalent net interest income was $1.2 billion for the third quarter, compared to $1.0 billion in the year-ago quarter and $1.1 billion in the prior quarter. Our net interest margin was 2.74% for the third quarter compared to 2.47% for the same period last year and 2.61% for the prior quarter. Year-over-year, net interest income benefited from higher earning asset balances and a favorable balance sheet mix as well as the benefit of higher interest rates. Quarter-over-quarter, net interest income and margin benefited from higher interest rates and loan growth, partially offset by higher interest-bearing deposit costs. Both net interest income and net interest margin reflect lower loan fees related to a PPP loan forgiveness as well as the impact of the sale of our indirect auto portfolio in the third quarter of 2021.

轉到幻燈片 8。第三季度的應稅等值淨利息收入為 12 億美元，而去年同期為 10 億美元，上一季度為 11 億美元。我們第三季度的淨息差為 2.74%，而去年同期為 2.47%，上一季度為 2.61%。與去年同期相比，淨利息收入受益於更高的收入資產餘額和有利的資產負債表組合以及更高的利率。與上一季度相比，淨利息收入和利潤率受益於較高的利率和貸款增長，但部分被較高的計息存款成本所抵消。淨利息收入和淨息差都反映了與 PPP 貸款豁免相關的較低貸款費用以及我們在 2021 年第三季度出售間接汽車投資組合的影響。

Included in the appendix is additional detail on our investment portfolio and asset liability positioning. As Chris mentioned, we have intentionally positioned Key to continue to benefit from higher interest rates over the next few years. For example, if we were to reprice our existing $9 billion in short-term treasuries and $26 billion of swaps to today's interest rates, we would have an annualized net interest income benefit of over $1.2 billion. This positions us to continue to grow net interest income and the net interest margin over each of the next few years even if rates do not increase.

附錄中包含有關我們投資組合和資產負債定位的更多詳細信息。正如克里斯所說，我們有意將 Key 定位為在未來幾年繼續受益於更高的利率。例如，如果我們將現有 90 億美元的短期國債和 260 億美元的掉期重新定價為今天的利率，我們將獲得超過 12 億美元的年化淨利息收入收益。這使我們能夠在未來幾年的每一年中繼續增加淨利息收入和淨息差，即使利率沒有增加。

Moving to Slide 9. Noninterest income was $683 million for the third quarter of 2022 compared to $797 million for the year-ago period and $688 million in the second quarter. Our fee businesses continue to be impacted by the slowdown in capital markets. Investment banking and debt placement fees were $154 million for the quarter, up $5 million from last quarter, but down $81 million year-over-year. Compared to last year, in addition to lower investment banking fees, cards and payments income was $20 million lower, driven by lower prepaid card revenue, which was partially offset by core growth. Consumer mortgage income was also lower, reflecting lower gain on sale margins. Strength in the corporate services income from higher derivatives income partially offset these declines.

轉到幻燈片 9。2022 年第三季度的非利息收入為 6.83 億美元，而去年同期為 7.97 億美元，第二季度為 6.88 億美元。我們的收費業務繼續受到資本市場放緩的影響。本季度投資銀行業務和債務配售費用為 1.54 億美元，比上一季度增加 500 萬美元，但同比下降 8100 萬美元。與去年相比，除了投資銀行費用降低外，卡和支付收入減少了 2000 萬美元，這是由於預付卡收入減少，這部分被核心增長所抵消。消費者抵押貸款收入也較低，反映了銷售利潤率的下降。衍生品收入增加帶來的企業服務收入強勁部分抵消了這些下降。

Quarter-over-quarter fees were down $5 million. Trust and investment services income declined, reflecting lower commercial brokerage commissions. Operating lease income was lower due to lease terminations in the quarter. Increases in cards and payments income and the $5 million increase in investment banking fees partially offset these declines. Despite the increase in other income, this line also reflects a $9 million reduction related to the (inaudible) litigation settlement. This quarter, we also reclassified certain customer-related derivative income items from our other income line to corporate services income. This change was reflected in the current period as well as reclassified in prior periods for comparability.

費用環比下降 500 萬美元。信託和投資服務收入下降，反映商業經紀佣金下降。由於本季度的租賃終止，經營租賃收入較低。信用卡和支付收入的增加以及投資銀行費用增加 500 萬美元部分抵消了這些下降。儘管其他收入有所增加，但這條線也反映了與（聽不清）訴訟和解相關的 900 萬美元的減少。本季度，我們還將某些與客戶相關的衍生收入項目從我們的其他收入線重新分類為企業服務收入。這一變化反映在本期，並在前期重新分類以進行比較。

I'm now on Slide 10. Total noninterest expense for the quarter was $1.1 billion, relatively stable with last year and up $28 million from last quarter. Our expenses reflect our ongoing investments in digital, analytics and our teammates. Compared to the year ago quarter, our expenses are down $6 million. We saw declines across most non-personnel line items, including business services and professional fees. Higher personnel costs partially offset these declines related to an increase in salaries expense. This increase included $8 million of lower deferred costs from slower loan originations and $10 million of higher contract labor related to technology initiatives.

我現在在幻燈片 10 上。本季度的總非利息支出為 11 億美元，與去年相比相對穩定，比上一季度增加了 2800 萬美元。我們的開支反映了我們對數字、分析和我們的隊友的持續投資。與去年同期相比，我們的開支減少了 600 萬美元。我們看到大多數非人事項目的下降，包括商業服務和專業費用。較高的人事成本部分抵消了與工資支出增加相關的這些下降。這一增長包括 800 萬美元因貸款發放放緩而導致的遞延成本降低，以及與技術計劃相關的合同勞動力增加 1000 萬美元。

Compared to the prior quarter, noninterest expense is up $28 million. Higher personnel costs drove this increase. This increase was caused by higher salaries related to seasonal staffing and $10 million of lower deferred costs from slower loan originations. In addition, higher incentive and stock-based compensation was driven by a $12 million increase related to the relative stock price change on incentive compensation. Partially offsetting these increases were declines across most non-personnel line items, including occupancy and business services and professional fees.

與上一季度相比，非利息支出增加了 2800 萬美元。更高的人員成本推動了這一增長。這一增長是由於與季節性人員配備相關的工資增加以及貸款發放放緩導致的 1000 萬美元遞延成本降低所致。此外，更高的激勵和基於股票的薪酬是由與激勵薪酬的相對股價變化相關的 1200 萬美元增長推動的。大多數非人事項目的下降部分抵消了這些增長，包括入住和商業服務以及專業費用。

Now moving on to Slide 11. Overall credit quality remains strong. For the third quarter, net charge-offs were $43 million or 15 basis points of average loans. Nonperforming loans were $390 million this quarter or 34 basis points of period end loans, a decline of $39 million from the prior quarter. We did see a very slight increase in our 30- to 89-day delinquencies and criticized loans this quarter, although both remain near historic lows. Our provision for credit losses was $109 million for the quarter, up from $45 million in the second quarter and exceeding net charge-offs by [$66] million. The increase in the provision was driven by the change in the economic outlook.

現在轉到幻燈片 11。整體信用質量依然強勁。第三季度，淨沖銷為 4300 萬美元或平均貸款的 15 個基點。本季度不良貸款為 3.9 億美元，或期末貸款 34 個基點，比上一季度減少 3900 萬美元。我們確實看到本季度 30 至 89 天的拖欠和批評貸款略有增加，儘管兩者仍接近歷史低點。我們本季度的信貸損失準備金為 1.09 億美元，高於第二季度的 4500 萬美元，超過淨沖銷額 [66] 萬美元。撥備增加是由經濟前景的變化推動的。

Now on to Slide 12. We ended the third quarter with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 9.1% within our targeted range of 9% to 9.5%. This provides us with sufficient capacity continued to support our customers and their borrowing needs and return capital to our shareholders. We will continue to manage our capital consistent with our capital priorities of, first, supporting organic growth of our businesses; second, paying dividends. And as we've mentioned before, our Board of Directors will evaluate a dividend increase in the fourth quarter; and third, repurchasing shares. During the quarter, our Board of Directors approved an extension of our share repurchase authorization of $790 million, which is now in place through the third quarter of 2023. We did not complete any share repurchases in the current period.

現在轉到幻燈片 12。我們在第三季度結束時的普通股一級比率為 9.1%，在我們 9% 至 9.5% 的目標範圍內。這為我們提供了足夠的能力來繼續支持我們的客戶及其借貸需求並向我們的股東返還資本。我們將繼續按照我們的資本優先事項管理我們的資本，首先，支持我們業務的有機增長；二是分紅。正如我們之前提到的，我們的董事會將評估第四季度的股息增長；三是回購股份。在本季度，我們的董事會批准延長我們 7.9 億美元的股票回購授權，該授權現已實施到 2023 年第三季度。我們在本期間沒有完成任何股票回購。

As we have in prior years, we have updated Slide 13 to show our fourth quarter outlook relative to our third quarter results. Using the midpoints of our guidance ranges, would support Chris' comments about delivering another year of positive operating leverage in 2022. We expect average loans will be up between 2% and 4% and average deposits up 1% to 3%. Net interest income is expected to be up between 4% and 6%, reflecting growth in average loan balances and higher interest rates.

與往年一樣，我們更新了幻燈片 13，以顯示我們相對於第三季度業績的第四季度前景。使用我們指導範圍的中點，將支持克里斯關於在 2022 年實現又一年的正經營槓桿的評論。我們預計平均貸款將增長 2% 至 4%，平均存款將增長 1% 至 3%。淨利息收入預計將增長 4% 至 6%，反映出平均貸款餘額的增長和更高的利率。

Our guidance is based on the forward curve, assuming a Fed funds rate of 4.25% by the end of 2022. Noninterest income is expected to be up between 1% and 3%. This reflects an expected seasonal pickup in investment banking and debt placement fees, but we would expect the fourth quarter of '22 to be well below the fourth quarter '21 results. This also accounts for the implementation of our new [NSF, OD] fee structure, which will decrease service charges on deposit accounts by approximately $25 million this quarter.

我們的指導基於遠期曲線，假設到 2022 年底聯邦基金利率為 4.25%。非利息收入預計將增長 1% 至 3%。這反映了投資銀行和債務安置費用的預期季節性回升，但我們預計 22 年第四季度將遠低於 21 年第四季度的結果。這也說明了我們新的 [NSF, OD] 費用結構的實施，這將使本季度存款賬戶的服務費減少約 2500 萬美元。

The higher interest rate environment will also impact the earnings credit in our commercial businesses and is expected to further pressure this line item. We expect noninterest expense to be up between 1% and 3% for the fourth quarter, reflecting higher incentive compensation relative to fee production as well as $20 million of onetime charges in the fourth quarter, including a pension settlement charge, which will flow through other expense. Over the quarter, we expect credit quality to remain strong and net charge-offs to be at the lower end of our 15 to 25 basis point range. Our guidance for the GAAP tax rate remains the same at approximately 19%.

較高的利率環境也將影響我們商業業務的盈利信用，預計將進一步對該項目施加壓力。我們預計第四季度的非利息費用將增長 1% 至 3%，這反映了相對於費用產生的更高的激勵薪酬以及第四季度 2000 萬美元的一次性費用，包括養老金結算費用，該費用將通過其他費用。在本季度，我們預計信貸質量將保持強勁，淨沖銷將處於我們 15 至 25 個基點範圍的下限。我們對 GAAP 稅率的指導保持不變，約為 19%。

Finally, shown at the bottom of the slide are our long-term targets, which remain unchanged. We expect to continue to make progress on these targets by maintaining our moderate risk profile and improving our productivity and efficiency, which will drive returns. Overall, it was a solid quarter, and we remain confident in our ability to grow and deliver on our commitments.

最後，幻燈片底部顯示的是我們保持不變的長期目標。我們希望通過保持適度的風險狀況並提高我們的生產力和效率來繼續在這些目標上取得進展，這將推動回報。總體而言，這是一個穩健的季度，我們對我們的增長和兌現承諾的能力仍然充滿信心。

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to the operator for instructions on the Q&A portion of our call. Operator?

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，以獲取有關我們電話問答部分的說明。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Alex Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Alex Alexopoulos。

Yes. So I have to start on the deposit side. So if we look at the $4 billion decline in the noninterest bearing, right, you're appropriately calling out the decline in nonoperating deposits. If you look at the $47 billion where you ended the quarter, how much of that is still nonoperational and at risk to see outflows?

是的。所以我必須從存款方面開始。因此，如果我們看一下非利息收入減少了 40 億美元，對，您正確地指出了非經營性存款的減少。如果您查看本季度結束時的 470 億美元，其中有多少仍處於非運營狀態且面臨資金外流的風險？

I would say that at the end of the quarter, when we look at our commercial balances, it's still in that 85% range. And we do believe that part of that decline, to be honest, is that we were a little stingy on some of our deposit rates, and it's part of our outlook for the fourth quarter of showing deposits increase. We really have 2 factors. One is seasonal changes and then also, two, is to use some of that deposit beta and maybe retain or attract additional customer relationships that are not operating.

我想說的是，在本季度末，當我們查看我們的商業餘額時，它仍然在 85% 的範圍內。老實說，我們確實相信下降的部分原因是我們對一些存款利率有點吝嗇，這是我們對第四季度存款增加的展望的一部分。我們真的有兩個因素。一是季節性變化，二是使用一些存款測試版，並可能保留或吸引其他未運營的客戶關係。

Okay. That's helpful commentary, Don. Follow-up. So if we look at the interest-bearing deposit costs and only 25 basis points and the 3-month T-bill's now at 4%, why aren't deposit costs going to materially ramp in the quarters ahead for you guys and really for everybody. I know that historically, retail was sleepy right, the money that move, but it's a different error today. What gives you confidence that you could continue to see NIM expansion, which you clearly are signaling with the commentary around treasuries and swaps. Can you really flesh that out for us?

好的。這是有用的評論，唐。跟進。因此，如果我們看有息存款成本，只有 25 個基點，而 3 個月的國庫券現在是 4%，為什麼存款成本不會在未來幾個季度大幅上升，對你們來說，真的對每個人來說.我知道從歷史上看，零售業是昏昏欲睡的，流動的錢，但今天是一個不同的錯誤。是什麼讓你有信心繼續看到 NIM 擴張，這顯然是你對國債和掉期的評論發出的信號。你真的能為我們充實嗎？

So Steve, it's Chris. A couple of things. One, when we were awash in liquidity, we were pretty disciplined about how -- what deposits we kept and what deposits were pushed out. So -- our starting point is a bit differentiated from where it's been in other cycles. The other thing to keep in mind is that 65% or 60% of our deposits are both consumer deposits and our escrow business, which has significant deposits. And we've been really focused on -- our pillars have been focused on 4 things, 1 of which has been primacy for some time.

所以史蒂夫，是克里斯。有幾件事。第一，當我們充斥著流動性時，我們對如何保留哪些存款以及推出哪些存款非常自律。所以——我們的起點與其他週期的起點有點不同。要記住的另一件事是，我們 65% 或 60% 的存款既是消費存款，又是我們的託管業務，後者有大量存款。我們一直非常專注於——我們的支柱一直專注於四件事，其中一件事已經有一段時間了。

So I think we're in a little bit different position than we've ever been in as the cycle changes. What we're seeing is that our cumulative beta is 9% through the first 3 quarters. We think our cumulative beta will be 15% for the year. We're projecting an endpoint on a spot basis of just above 30%. So we are anticipating a fairly significant ramp, but not the kind of experience that we've had before based on all the work we did prior to the interest -- the rise in interest rates.

因此，我認為隨著周期的變化，我們所處的位置與以往有所不同。我們看到的是，前 3 個季度的累積貝塔係數為 9%。我們認為我們今年的累積貝塔係數將是 15%。我們正在現場預測一個略高於 30% 的端點。因此，我們預計會有相當大的增長，但不是基於我們在利息之前所做的所有工作所獲得的那種經驗——利率上升。

Okay. So is it safe to say most banks are guiding the NIMs are going to peak in the first half than probably of next year and then trend down in the second half. Are you guys confident you'll see NIM expansion through 2023?

好的。因此可以肯定地說，大多數銀行都在指導 NIM 將在上半年達到峰值，而不是可能在明年達到峰值，然後在下半年趨於下降。你們有信心看到 NIM 擴張到 2023 年嗎？

We'll provide more on the 2023 outlook in January. But you're right. As we look at how we're positioned with the benefit that Chris and I both referred to as far as just the short-term swaps and the short-term treasuries and those rollovers that we do believe that we're going to grow net interest income and margin even beyond that first half of 2023. And so even with this increased deposit beta. And so that was intentional on our part to have more of a long-term focus as far as how we manage interest rate risk. And we think that while it's costing us a little bit on a relative basis now, we think that we'll be recouping that throughout the later periods of '23 and '24.

我們將在 1 月份提供更多關於 2023 年展望的信息。但你是對的。當我們看到我們如何利用克里斯和我都提到的短期掉期和短期國債以及我們相信我們將增加淨利息的展期的利益時收入和利潤率甚至超過了 2023 年上半年。即使存款貝塔增加了。因此，就我們如何管理利率風險而言，這對我們來說是有意的。我們認為，雖然現在相對而言這讓我們付出了一點代價，但我們認為我們將在 23 年和 24 年的後期彌補這一點。

Next, we go to the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

接下來，我們與瑞銀一起前往 Erika Najarian 的路線。

You mentioned, Chris, the $1.2 billion benefit over time early on in your prepared remarks and Don, you mentioned it again. So I guess let me ask the question. Number one, your C&I loan beta was 53% this quarter. Is that essentially the impact from the swaps? And should we expect a similar loan beta as the Fed continues to raise rates? And as we think about that $1.2 billion benefit coming back, how much of that is coming from the swap book versus the securities book? And over what period of time do you realize that $1.2 billion back into your net interest income?

克里斯，你在準備好的講話中早早提到了 12 億美元的收益，唐，你又提到了。所以我想讓我問這個問題。第一，本季度您的工商業貸款貝塔係數為 53%。這本質上是掉期的影響嗎？隨著美聯儲繼續加息，我們是否應該期待類似的貸款貝塔？當我們考慮到 12 億美元的收益回來時，其中有多少來自掉期賬簿與證券賬簿？您會在多長時間內意識到這 12 億美元又回到了您的淨利息收入中？

Sure. Maybe I can go ahead and take a crack at that, Erika. And I don't have it broken out for C&I, but for total commercial, the swap impact for commercial yields cost us 43 basis points on a linked quarter basis. And so instead of the increase that you're seeing for commercial yields that just the actual loan itself would have translated to 116 basis point increase. And so I think that's going to be much more consistent with what you might be seeing for some others that don't have that hedge impact. And so this quarter, we did see that kind of relative change on that category as far as the impact from swaps.

當然。也許我可以繼續嘗試一下，Erika。而且我沒有為 C&I 打破它，但對於總商業而言，商業收益率的掉期影響在關聯季度基礎上使我們損失了 43 個基點。因此，與您看到的商業收益率的增長不同，實際貸款本身就會轉化為 116 個基點的增長。因此，我認為這將與您可能會看到的其他一些沒有對沖影響的人更加一致。因此，本季度，就掉期的影響而言，我們確實看到了該類別的這種相對變化。

As far as that $1.2 billion that it really relates to the swap book and the maturities and also the short-term treasuries. Those treasuries, which total about $9 billion, really mature throughout late '23 and throughout '24. The swap book between now and the end of '23, we've got $7.3 billion of swap maturities and another $7.5 billion in '24. And so if we just look at that time period for the next 2 years and using that same math as far as repricing, we'll have $900 million of that $2 billion annualized net income pickup occur in that 2-year time period.

至於那 12 億美元，它真正與掉期賬簿和到期日以及短期國債有關。這些國債總額約為 90 億美元，在 23 年末和 24 年期間真正成熟。從現在到 23 年底的掉期賬簿，我們有 73 億美元的掉期到期和 24 年的另外 75 億美元。因此，如果我們只看未來 2 年的那個時間段，並使用相同的數學來重新定價，那麼在這 2 年的時間段內，我們將有 20 億美元的年化淨收入回升中的 9 億美元。

$1.2 billion.

12億美元。

Of the $1.2 billion, I'm sorry, yes. The $900 million out of the $1.2 billion occur in that 2-year time period.

在這 12 億美元中，對不起，是的。 12 億美元中的 9 億美元發生在這 2 年的時間段內。

Got it. And my follow-up question is on expenses. I think that Key has always been very good at managing expenses, particularly relative to fees. And I think that it probably surprised the Street in terms of the personnel costs relative to what happened on the fee side, especially. And I'm wondering, given that you called out some of the $12 million and the $10 million in your slides, how should we think about the $655 million going forward? And I guess my other question, and I'm sorry, I'm not getting this out quickly is, is this just something that even though the capital markets remain dislocated, inflation and the competition for talent will continue to push this pressure this upward?

知道了。我的後續問題是關於費用的。我認為 Key 一直非常擅長管理費用，尤其是在費用方面。而且我認為，相對於費用方面發生的事情，尤其是人員成本方面，這可能讓華爾街感到驚訝。我想知道，鑑於你在幻燈片中提到了 1200 萬美元和 1000 萬美元中的一部分，我們應該如何看待未來的 6.55 億美元？我想我的另一個問題，很抱歉，我沒有很快解決這個問題，這是否只是即使資本市場仍然錯位，通貨膨脹和人才競爭將繼續推動這種壓力向上?

A couple of things. One, our expenses were higher than what we had guided to for this quarter and for the second half of the year. If you look at the components of what drove that change, and I'll get to your question as part of this is that there are 3 items that really caused our outlook for all of 2022 to be higher than what we previously expected. One is more onetime items. We've got a pension settlement loss projected in the fourth quarter and also some branch consolidation, not branch or building consolidation type of costs associated with that. And those 2 combined took $20 million.

有幾件事。一，我們的費用高於我們本季度和下半年的指導。如果您查看推動這種變化的因素，我會回答您的問題，其中有 3 個項目確實導致我們對 2022 年全年的展望高於我們之前的預期。一是更多一次性物品。我們預計第四季度的養老金結算損失以及一些分支機構合併，而不是與此相關的分支機構或建築物合併類型的成本。這兩個加起來花了2000萬美元。

Outside of personnel, but within our operating losses, during the second quarter, we were seeing our operating losses from the prepaid card product come down through the second quarter. And we expected that to continue through the third and fourth quarter. And what we actually saw was those costs actually go up. And so it wasn't a huge increase, but compared to what our relative positioning was and the expectation was for that category, it's about a $30 million increase for the second half of the year expense structure for us.

在人員之外，但在我們的運營虧損中，在第二季度，我們看到預付卡產品的運營虧損在第二季度有所下降。我們預計這種情況將持續到第三和第四季度。我們實際看到的是這些成本實際上上升了。所以這並不是一個巨大的增長，但與我們的相對定位和對該類別的預期相比，我們下半年的費用結構增加了大約 3000 萬美元。

And the good thing about that is that we have taken action to address that, and we'll start to see that over time, but the other good thing is it has a limited life to us. These are related to funds that were distributed as part of the stimulus programs and they're winding down. And so we don't think that will have an ongoing impact with us.

這樣做的好處是我們已經採取行動解決這個問題，隨著時間的推移，我們會開始看到這一點，但另一個好處是它對我們的生命有限。這些與作為刺激計劃的一部分分配的資金有關，它們正在逐漸減少。因此，我們認為這不會對我們產生持續影響。

The third component, Erika, really is deferred loan origination costs and that costs us about $20 million. And most of that is with our reset of our consumer loan originations and the cost that gets deferred associated with that. And so we will see increases from that continue for some time period because we're not seeing a return of the previous origination levels. So that will be there.

第三個組成部分，Erika，實際上是遞延貸款的發起成本，這花費了我們大約 2000 萬美元。其中大部分是我們重新設定了我們的消費貸款來源以及與此相關的遞延成本。因此，我們將看到持續一段時間的增長，因為我們沒有看到之前的原始水平的回歸。所以那會在那裡。

For the fourth quarter, we expect to see our capital markets revenues pick up. And as we've said before, the incentive compensation expense tend to be correlated to the tune of about $0.30 on the dollar. So for every dollar of investment banking and debt placement fee increase, we will see that come through incentives.

對於第四季度，我們預計我們的資本市場收入將回升。正如我們之前所說，激勵補償費用往往與美元兌約 0.30 美元有關。因此，每增加一美元的投資銀行業務和債務安置費用，我們都會看到激勵措施。

As far as where we see for other salary and personnel costs that I would say, just looking at the year-over-year adjusting for some of these items I talked about for the deferred loan origination costs and things, our total salary dollars are up about 10% and headcount is up about 5%. Now some of that includes some of the smaller acquisitions we've done throughout the year. And so that does imply a 4% to 5% inflationary impact for some of the salaries. Some of that is because of the lower end of the pay scale, continue to have increases. Some of its market pressure, and we'll be working through that as we said, our expectation for merit increases for '23 and beyond.

至於我們看到的其他工資和人事成本，我想說的是，只要看看我談到的一些關於延期貸款發起成本和事情的項目的同比調整，我們的總工資就增加了約 10%，員工人數增加約 5%。現在，其中一些包括我們全年進行的一些較小的收購。因此，這確實意味著某些工資會產生 4% 到 5% 的通脹影響。其中一些是因為工資等級的低端，繼續有增加。它的一些市場壓力，正如我們所說，我們將努力解決這個問題，我們對 23 年及以後的價值增加的期望。

And I think that the important thing here, Erika, also is that we're very focused on driving positive operating leverage. We expect to do that this year. And we haven't given guidance for '23 or beyond yet, but we expect to continue that through the next several years as well.

而且我認為這裡重要的事情，Erika，也是我們非常專注於推動積極的經營槓桿。我們希望今年能做到這一點。我們還沒有給出 23 年或以後的指導，但我們希望在接下來的幾年裡也能繼續這樣做。

Next, we go to John Pancari with Evercore.

接下來，我們和 Evercore 一起去 John Pancari。

Related to your last comment there on the operating leverage. I mean your cash efficiency ratio is running at about 60% year-to-date. And just wondering how you could help us think how you're thinking about that for 2023? And if not, maybe if you could help us with the magnitude of pause off leverage that we could see in '23? And then separately, your long-term target, you maintain that at 54% to 56%. How should we think about what you need to see to be able to achieve that level?

與您對操作槓桿的最後評論有關。我的意思是您的現金效率比年初至今約為 60%。只是想知道您如何幫助我們思考您對 2023 年的看法？如果沒有，也許您可以幫助我們解決我們在 23 年可以看到的暫停槓桿的幅度？然後分開，你的長期目標，你維持在 54% 到 56%。我們應該如何考慮你需要看到什麼才能達到那個水平？

John, it's Chris. So I think our efficiency ratio for the quarter we just printed was right around 58%. It's not -- we do aspire to get to 54% to 56%. But as Don mentioned, what we're really focused on is positive operating leverage. And if you think about our capital markets business coming back, if you think about some of the many investments that we continue to make coming to fruition and you think about the trajectory that Don described from an NII perspective, obviously, that continues to move us toward that long-term target that you referenced of 54% to 56%.

約翰，是克里斯。所以我認為我們剛剛打印的那個季度的效率比正好在 58% 左右。不是——我們確實渴望達到 54% 到 56%。但正如唐所說，我們真正關注的是積極的經營槓桿。如果您考慮我們的資本市場業務正在回歸，如果您考慮我們繼續進行的許多投資中的一些投資，並且您考慮 Don 從 NII 的角度描述的軌跡，顯然，這將繼續推動我們朝著你提到的 54% 到 56% 的長期目標前進。

Okay. All right. And then separately, in terms of deposit growth expectations, I appreciate the color you gave near term. I wanted to just get a little bit of color on how you think about deposit growth as you look into 2023. Maybe if you could talk about the mix shift of noninterest-bearing towards interest-bearing and then overall growth levels, do you think incremental declines are possible as we look into the early part of '23?

好的。好的。然後分別就存款增長預期而言，我很欣賞你在短期內給出的顏色。我想了解一下您對 2023 年存款增長的看法。也許您可以談談從無息向有息的混合轉變，然後是整體增長水平，您認為增量當我們研究 23 年的早期部分時，下降是可能的嗎？

Well, I mean, we're really kind of going into a bit of uncharted territory. I will tell you this, though, we have been pretty consistent in that our noninterest-bearing have been right around 32%, and that hasn't moved. And I don't anticipate that moving a lot as we go forward. And as I mentioned earlier, this deposit book has been pretty well scrubbed over a period of time. Having said all that, as interest rates continue to rise, some deposits that previously were deemed to be not interest rate sensitive, will in fact be interest rate sensitive. And we saw some of that movement in the third quarter where some of our public sector customers that are more interest rate-sensitive moved. So we're obviously watching it very closely, and it's -- it's certainly an interesting dynamic, particularly as the Fed unwinds their balance sheet concurrently.

好吧，我的意思是，我們真的有點進入了一個未知的領域。不過，我會告訴你這一點，我們一直非常一致，我們的無息利率一直在 32% 左右，而且沒有改變。而且我預計在我們前進的過程中不會有太大的變化。正如我之前提到的，這本存款簿在一段時間內已經被很好地擦洗了。話雖如此，隨著利率繼續上升，一些以前被認為對利率不敏感的存款，實際上將是利率敏感的。我們在第三季度看到了其中的一些變動，我們的一些對利率更敏感的公共部門客戶發生了變動。因此，我們顯然正在密切關注它，而且這肯定是一個有趣的動態，尤其是在美聯儲同時縮減資產負債表的情況下。

Next, we go to the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

接下來，我們與 RBC 一起前往 Gerard Cassidy 的路線。

Chris, you talked about the strength in the commercial and industrial loan growth and you've taken on more of originations than you have in the past as more of your customers are coming on to your balance sheet rather than going to the capital markets. A couple of questions. One, can you share with us what percentage of that portfolio is considered leveraged loans? And then also, in that same kind of vein, how big is your syndicated loan portfolio? And did that impact the growth this quarter?

克里斯，您談到了商業和工業貸款增長的優勢，並且您比過去承擔了更多的發起，因為更多的客戶進入您的資產負債表而不是進入資本市場。幾個問題。一，您能否與我們分享該投資組合中有多少百分比被視為槓桿貸款？然後，同樣，您的銀團貸款組合有多大？這是否影響了本季度的增長？

So a couple of things. Our leverage book, Gerard, has been pretty consistent at about 2.5% of total loans. And what's interesting about that is it's been 2.5% even when we were a much smaller company. So that portfolio has a lot of velocity. It's in our -- it's in the segments in which we focus. There's been some talk about some of the deals that are hung lately. We've just had just a de minimis mark over the last 6 months in that book.

所以有幾件事。我們的槓桿賬簿 Gerard 一直保持在總貸款的 2.5% 左右。有趣的是，即使我們是一家小得多的公司，它也只有 2.5%。因此，該投資組合具有很大的速度。它在我們的 - 它在我們關注的細分市場中。有一些關於最近掛起的交易的討論。在那本書的過去 6 個月裡，我們剛剛獲得了最低限度的分數。

So we feel really, really good about that. Most of the growth that you're seeing conversely is really an investment-grade credit. And the market was dislocated enough and our clients were trying to do things in an expeditious manner. And we have really grown the percentage of our C&I book that's investment grade as we brought more onto the balance sheet. Right now, our C&I book is about 50% investment grade, which is a bit of an outlier for a bank of our size.

所以我們對此感覺非常非常好。相反，您看到的大部分增長實際上是投資級信貸。市場已經足夠混亂，我們的客戶正試圖以一種快速的方式做事。隨著我們將更多資產納入資產負債表，我們確實增加了投資級別的 C&I 賬簿的百分比。目前，我們的 C&I 賬簿的投資級別約為 50%，對於我們這種規模的銀行來說，這有點離群值。

And when you underwrite the new originations, do you guys -- I assume you always do this, but are you stressing in for 200 or 300 basis points higher rates just so that you're protected if rates are to go quite a bit higher from here?

當您承保新的發起時，你們 - 我假設您總是這樣做，但是您是否強調要提高 200 或 300 個基點的利率，以便在利率要高得多時受到保護這裡？

For sure. I mean our first stress that we always run is actually 300 basis points, and we run a lot of stress -- other stresses. And when you get into anything that's leveraged, we stress EBITDA and we stress interest rates because that's the danger of anything that's leveraged as you have the concurrent decline of EBITDA and the increase in borrowing costs, and we do a lot of stressing with respect to those credits.

當然。我的意思是，我們總是承受的第一個壓力實際上是 300 個基點，而且我們承受著很多壓力——其他壓力。當您進入任何槓桿交易時，我們會強調 EBITDA 並且我們會強調利率，因為這是任何槓桿交易的危險，因為 EBITDA 同時下降和借貸成本增加，我們在以下方面做了很多強調那些學分。

Very good. And then as a follow-up question, your credit quality, obviously, is superb, like many of your peers, and I know that's going to be a defining moment for you folks through the cycle. So the question I have is on the consumer loan portfolio with the FICO scores, I think you showed it averages out to 772. Have you guys -- there's been some chatter that FICO scores, like, I think, college grades, have been inflated. Are you guys seeing anything where these FICO scores, if you compare them to 5 years ago, they are inflated? Or is that really not the case?

很好。然後作為後續問題，您的信用質量顯然是一流的，就像您的許多同行一樣，我知道這將是你們在整個週期中的決定性時刻。所以我的問題是關於具有 FICO 分數的消費貸款組合，我認為你顯示它的平均值為 772。你們 - 有一些喋喋不休的 FICO 分數，比如，我認為，大學成績，被誇大了.你們有沒有看到這些 FICO 分數，如果你將它們與 5 年前進行比較，它們被誇大了嗎？還是真的不是這樣？

I haven't personally done the analysis, but just because we look at this stuff all the time, I think -- I think there's probably a lot of -- like they teach the SAP, I think there's some instruction on how to get your FICO score up. Having said that, if you think about the super prime customers that we're focused on, doctors, dentists, which, for example, were 30% of our mortgage originations last quarter. We feel really, really good about our consumer book as we look kind of across all the metrics.

我沒有親自做過分析，但只是因為我們一直在看這些東西，我認為 - 我認為可能有很多 - 就像他們教 SAP 一樣，我認為有一些關於如何獲得你的FICO 得分。話雖如此，如果您考慮一下我們關注的超級優質客戶，例如醫生、牙醫，這些客戶占我們上個季度抵押貸款的 30%。我們對我們的消費者書籍感覺非常非常好，因為我們看起來有點像所有指標。

And Gerard, you're right. There actually was some technical change in some of the FICO scores. And I don't know if it was by law or what, but they had to exclude certain, I think, medical-related costs or loans or expenses. And -- so if you would adjust for that, I think that today's FICO score is probably 10 to 15 basis points higher than the same would be several years ago. And so instead of our 772, it might be a 760, which is still super prime even on historic standards.

還有杰拉德，你是對的。一些 FICO 分數實際上發生了一些技術變化。而且我不知道這是法律規定還是什麼，但我認為他們必須排除某些與醫療相關的費用或貸款或費用。而且 - 所以如果你對此進行調整，我認為今天的 FICO 分數可能比幾年前高出 10 到 15 個基點。因此，它可能不是我們的 772，而是 760，即使按照歷史標準，它仍然是超級優質的。

Next, we go to the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

接下來，我們與美國銀行一起前往 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess, Don, just wanted to follow up on the swap and the treasury securities portfolio. So get in terms of how this should help NII. That's obviously assuming that rates stay high for the next 12 to 18 months, is there anything that you plan to do ahead of time to lock in that upside? Or -- just give us a sense of -- because what I worry is if we get to the next 3 to 6 months, rates slow lower, do we start losing some of that benefit that you would have otherwise had? And is there a way that you expect to lock that in ahead of time?

我猜，唐，只是想跟進掉期和國債投資組合。因此，請了解這應該如何幫助 NII。這顯然是假設利率在未來 12 到 18 個月內保持高位，您是否計劃提前做些什麼來鎖定這一上行空間？或者 - 只是給我們一種感覺 - 因為我擔心的是，如果我們到接下來的 3 到 6 個月，利率會放緩，我們會開始失去一些你本來可以得到的好處嗎？有沒有一種方法可以讓您提前鎖定它？

We're continuing to review that on a regular basis. I would say that our ALCO Committee as we get together, we tend to think that we're going to see rates higher for longer, just given what we've experienced in the current marketplace. But even with that, you've seen a little bit of a tick up again as far as our forward starting swaps. And that's exactly the purpose of that Ebrahim is, is that we're looking to put on swaps that actually kick in as some of these will mature and start to lock in some of that forward benefit for us as well. And we're not ready to do a wholesale type of repositioning to achieve that, but we do expect to continue to use that tool over the next several quarters to help lock in some of that benefit.

我們將繼續定期審查。我想說的是，當我們聚在一起時，我們的 ALCO 委員會傾向於認為，鑑於我們在當前市場上所經歷的情況，我們會在更長時間內看到更高的利率。但即便如此，就我們的遠期首發互換而言，您再次看到了一點點滴答聲。這正是 Ebrahim 的目的，就是我們正在尋求進行真正發揮作用的互換，因為其中一些將成熟並開始為我們鎖定一些遠期收益。我們還沒有準備好進行大規模的重新定位來實現這一目標，但我們確實希望在接下來的幾個季度中繼續使用該工具來幫助鎖定其中的一些好處。

That's fair. And I guess, just on a separate question, following up on credit, left to do with your portfolio, which you have a lens into sort of the middle market commercial, CRE, like how stressed do you expect that customer base? Are you seeing areas where you've kind of pulled back given the rapid rise in Fed interest rates and what we're seeing in the market in terms of spread widening, like what are the areas where you're seeing pain where you pulled back as a bank? And where do you -- like do you actually start seeing a 4%, 4.5% Fed funds as more certainly creating pressure for a subset of that segment?

這還算公平。而且我想，只是在一個單獨的問題上，跟進信貸，留下與您的投資組合有關的問題，您可以從中看到中間市場商業 CRE，例如您對客戶群的期望有多大？鑑於美聯儲利率的快速上升以及我們在市場上看到的利差擴大，您是否看到您已經有所回落的領域，例如您在哪些領域看到您回落的痛苦作為銀行？你在哪裡——比如你是否真的開始看到 4%、4.5% 的聯邦基金更肯定地為該細分市場的一部分創造了壓力？

Sure, I'll take that one. Clearly, I mean, last year -- and our view for some time has been that these that inflation would be persistent and that rates would have to be higher for longer. And if you go back to a year ago in September, when we exited indirect auto $3.3 billion portfolio that was an area that we thought and I still believe we'll be under intense stress in the market that we're entering. The other thing that I always look for is any place that there's leverage, and Gerard Cassidy had just asked a question about leverage loans. That's an area that we pay a lot of attention to.

當然，我會拿那個。顯然，我的意思是，去年——一段時間以來，我們一直認為通脹將持續存在，而且利率必須在更長時間內保持較高水平。如果你回到一年前的 9 月，當時我們退出了 33 億美元的間接汽車投資組合，這是我們認為的一個領域，我仍然相信我們將在我們正在進入的市場中承受巨大的壓力。我一直在尋找的另一件事是任何有槓桿的地方，杰拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy）剛剛問了一個關於槓桿貸款的問題。這是我們非常關注的一個領域。

Another area that we pay a lot of attention to is just real estate broadly. And by strategy, we're focused on apartments, multifamily and industrial. Interestingly, those values are up significantly from pre-pandemic levels, respect -- 15% and 39%, respectively. The other area where I think that there's going to be a lot of dislocation is in office, particularly B and C class office, because those buildings are leveraged and obviously, people have changed the way they work. That's not a business that we're in, in any significant way, although we do have a $600 billion third-party commercial loan servicing portfolio, which is debt that's off us. And now the second largest category below retail where you would expect that's starting to go into active special servicing are these B and C class offices in central business districts. Those are a few of the places that I'd bring to your attention.

我們非常關注的另一個領域是廣義上的房地產。從戰略上講，我們專注於公寓、多戶型和工業型。有趣的是，這些值比大流行前的水平顯著上升，分別為 15% 和 39%。我認為會出現很多錯位的另一個領域是辦公室，尤其是 B 級和 C 級辦公室，因為這些建築物是槓桿式的，顯然，人們已經改變了他們的工作方式。儘管我們確實擁有 6,000 億美元的第三方商業貸款服務組合，但我們已經擺脫了債務。現在，您預計會開始積極開展特殊服務的第二大類別是位於中央商務區的 B 級和 C 級辦公室。這些是我要提請您注意的幾個地方。

And just on the office, do you think it's a cliff event just given the nature of the leases? Or is it going to be more like what we've seen with big-box retail malls, where it's played out over the last decade as opposed to in any given quarter or any given year?

就在辦公室，考慮到租約的性質，你認為這是一個懸崖事件嗎？還是會更像我們在大型零售商場看到的那樣，在過去十年而不是在任何給定的季度或任何給定的年份裡，它都在發揮作用？

Yes, I think -- I don't think it's a cliff event. I think it's a slow burn because if you think about these B and C class office space, they have many, many tenants with varying termination dates on their leases. I think it will be a slow, but consistent burn.

是的，我認為——我不認為這是一個懸崖事件。我認為這是一個緩慢的燃燒，因為如果你考慮一下這些 B 級和 C 級辦公空間，他們有很多很多租戶，他們的租約終止日期不同。我認為這將是一個緩慢但持續的燃燒。

Next, we go to the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

接下來，我們與 Piper Sandler 一起前往 Scott Siefers 的路線。

Chris, I was hoping you could sort of walk through the investment banking pipelines and pull through. I think we can all see what's happening in the industry. But some companies are noting that there's still enough activity taking place at sort of the smaller end of the segment, middle market and below that it's keeping sort of activity going enough to prop up numbers. So where are you seeing healthier activity versus what's still slow? And just given your background, will -- do you think there's a point where we will say get price discovery and then increased activity despite higher rates and a weaker economic backdrop?

克里斯，我希望你能通過投資銀行的渠道並順利通過。我想我們都可以看到這個行業正在發生的事情。但一些公司注意到，在該細分市場的較小端、中間市場及以下市場仍有足夠的活動發生，它保持了足夠的活動來支撐數字。那麼，您在哪裡看到更健康的活動與仍然緩慢的活動？考慮到您的背景，您是否認為我們會說儘管利率較高且經濟背景較弱，但我們會說獲得價格發現然後增加活動？

So I do. So where the activity has remained strong, and we had a very good quarter in this area was areas like syndicated finance. So that area continues to be strong. The areas that are really challenged are is the public equity market. And that's a market -- unlike the debt market where it's binary, either you can issue equity or you can't basically. And right now, you clearly can't. The M&A markets, I'm confident will come back. We are involved in a lot of these strategic discussions. And what's happening, Scott, is if you're a buyer, you basically have sort of a free option. There's no huge impetus to close. Everyone is looking out over the horizon and predicting a downturn. And so if you have a deal locked up, you sort of drag your feet and wait and see what the downturn is going to look like.

所以我願意。因此，活動保持強勁的地方，我們在這個領域有一個非常好的季度是銀團融資等領域。因此，該領域繼續強勁。真正受到挑戰的領域是公共股票市場。那是一個市場——與二元的債務市場不同，你可以發行股票，或者基本上不能。而現在，你顯然不能。併購市場，我有信心會回來。我們參與了很多這樣的戰略討論。斯科特，正在發生的事情是，如果你是買家，你基本上可以自由選擇。關閉的動力並不大。每個人都在展望未來並預測經濟衰退。因此，如果你有一筆交易被鎖定，你就會拖著腳等待，看看經濟衰退會是什麼樣子。

Our pipelines remain strong in that business. We continue to selectively hire people. It will come back. I don't think it's going to come back. I don't see any significant market change in the fourth quarter, by the way, but I do think that the business will come back.

我們的管道在該業務中保持強勁。我們繼續有選擇地僱用人員。它會回來的。我不認為它會回來。順便說一句，我沒有看到第四季度有任何重大的市場變化，但我確實認為業務會恢復。

Having said that, I've been doing this for a long time. There's an inverse relationship between the amount of time you've been working on the deal and the probability that it's actually going to close. And so I throw that out as a watch point.

話雖如此，我已經這樣做了很長時間。您處理交易的時間與實際完成交易的可能性之間存在反比關係。所以我把它作為觀察點扔掉了。

Perfect. Okay, that's good color. And then maybe, Don, this notion of AOCI marks and the tangible book and TCE hits has gotten a lot more attention. A lot of companies have begun to move pretty substantial amounts of their curious portfolios to held to maturity. So in a sense, you can sort of make the TCE tangible book issue go away with the wave of hand, so to speak. So maybe just some thoughts on why you guys are keeping mostly available for sale? To what degree does TCE matter in your eyes? Does it govern any of your capital management thinking or things like that?

完美的。不錯，顏色不錯然後，也許，唐，AOCI 標記、有形書籍和 TCE 熱門歌曲的概念得到了更多關注。許多公司已經開始將相當大量的好奇投資組合轉移到持有至到期日。因此，從某種意義上說，您可以說一揮手就可以讓 TCE 有形書籍問題消失。所以也許只是一些關於你們為什麼大部分都可以出售的想法？ TCE 在您眼中的重要性如何？它是否支配您的任何資本管理思想或類似的事情？

Sure. That as we look at our future security purchases, we're starting to put a portion of those into held maturity, whereas it used to be primarily only into the available for sale. And so we're just separating some where we might want to have [bullet] maturities where we can do some end-of-life type of swaps attached to it that we need to keep those in available for sale as opposed to move them into held to maturity.

當然。當我們著眼於未來的證券購買時，我們開始將其中的一部分置於持有期限內，而它過去主要只用於可供出售的證券。因此，我們只是分離了一些我們可能希望擁有 [bullet] 到期日的地方，我們可以在這些地方進行一些生命終結類型的掉期，我們需要保持這些可以出售而不是將它們轉移到持有至到期。

The TCE ratio isn't a high priority for us. Our main capital ratio that we focus on is the common equity Tier 1 ratio and some of the other regulatory ratios whether it's Tier 1 or total. And so that's why you saw us take action in the third quarter with a preferred stock issuance and also a sub debt issuance. And we feel very good about how we're positioned across that capital spectrum.

TCE 比率對我們來說並不是一個高優先級。我們關注的主要資本比率是普通股一級比率和其他一些監管比率，無論是一級還是總資本比率。這就是為什麼你看到我們在第三季度採取行動發行優先股和發行次級債務。我們對我們在資本範圍內的定位感到非常滿意。

The other thing to think about, too, as far as the TCE ratio. If you would just back out the AOCI impact for TCE, that would take our ratio up by 330 basis points. And so on that adjusted basis, which will all come back over time because we don't have risk of those investments not being paid off because they're all agencies or U.S. treasuries. We're going to see that realized. And so that's more of the area of focus for us as well.

就 TCE 比率而言，另一件要考慮的事情也是如此。如果您只是取消 AOCI 對 TCE 的影響，那將使我們的比率上升 330 個基點。等等，在調整後的基礎上，這些都會隨著時間的推移而恢復，因為我們沒有這些投資沒有得到回報的風險，因為它們都是機構或美國國債。我們將看到這一點實現。因此，這也是我們關注的更多領域。

Next, we go to the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

接下來，我們去德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor 線。

Just wondering what you're seeing in loan pricing trends, specifically in commercial. Obviously, the absolute yield is going up because of higher rates. But are you seeing any improvement in spreads given we see widening in the marketplace, in public markets that is?

只是想知道您在貸款定價趨勢中看到了什麼，特別是在商業方面。顯然，由於更高的利率，絕對收益率正在上升。但是，鑑於我們看到市場（即公開市場）擴大，您是否看到點差有所改善？

That's a great question, Matt. And what's ironic about this is, to date, what we've seen is credit spreads widen out for the investment-grade companies that we serve. And because they're seeing that in the capital markets for the middle market space because of the competition there tends to be more local. We haven't seen the commercial spreads widen that much yet. We would expect that to pick up over time here, but near term, the spreads are holding in, but not expanding on the commercial for the lower middle market customers.

這是一個很好的問題，馬特。具有諷刺意味的是，迄今為止，我們所服務的投資級公司的信用利差擴大了。而且因為他們在資本市場中看到，由於競爭，中間市場空間往往更加本地化。我們還沒有看到商業價差擴大那麼多。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，這種情況會有所回升，但在短期內，價差會保持不變，但不會擴大針對中低端市場客戶的商業廣告。

Any way to quantify on the investment grade, as you mentioned, your overweight investment grade versus others. So that's probably a positive for you.

正如你所提到的，任何量化投資等級的方法，你的投資等級與其他人相比是超重的。所以這對你來說可能是積極的。

Well, it is for us. And I would say that on the credit spread widening, we've probably seen a good 20 basis points of widening generally on pricing reflective of credit spreads in the market.

嗯，這是給我們的。我想說的是，在信用利差擴大的情況下，我們可能已經看到反映市場信用利差的定價普遍擴大了 20 個基點。

Next, we have a question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來，我們有一個來自富國銀行證券的 Mike Mayo 的問題。

One negative, one positive. The negative is the personnel expense up so much quarter-to-quarter, and I get onetime items, 8% just versus -- and it's just the -- how the onetime items seem to repeat and therefore, maybe they aren't so onetime. I mean, I guess you said fourth quarter might have some more next year. Do you expect more onetime items? Or when do we get more core expense numbers because that seemed to come in a little higher than expected.

一負一正。不利的是，人員費用每季度都增加了很多，我得到一次性項目，8% 只是與 - 這只是 - 一次性項目似乎重複的方式，因此，也許它們不是一次性的.我的意思是，我猜你說第四季度明年可能會有更多。你期待更多一次性物品嗎？或者我們什麼時候會得到更多的核心費用數字，因為這似乎比預期的要高一些。

And on the positive side, as far as your outlook for NII and the NIM, I mean, your NIM of 2.7% a decade ago, it was close to 3.7%. Conceptually, we've had almost 14 years of 0 interest rates and now that we're getting out of that, could you potentially get all the way back to 3.7%? Or what are some of the ins and outs since the global financial crisis that could help or hurt that?

從積極的方面來說，就你對 NII 和 NIM 的展望而言，我的意思是，十年前你的 NIM 為 2.7%，接近 3.7%。從概念上講，我們已經有近 14 年的零利率了，現在我們正在擺脫這種情況，你有可能一路回到 3.7% 嗎？或者，自全球金融危機以來，哪些來龍去脈可能有助於或損害這一點？

Sure. As far as personnel, a couple of things that we've talked about as being onetime or just different. One is the pension settlement loss that we'll have in the fourth quarter. The good thing there is that with rates being higher, the threshold is higher for us to be in a position to have to realize losses in the future. And so we do think this truly is more onetime. And as long as rates remain where they're at or even go a little higher, we shouldn't see that come through as far as a charge.

當然。就人員而言，有幾件事我們已經討論過是一次性的或只是不同的。一個是我們將在第四季度遇到的養老金結算損失。好消息是，利率越高，我們在未來必須實現損失的門檻就越高。所以我們確實認為這確實是一次性的。只要費率保持在原來的水平甚至更高一點，我們就不應該看到這種情況發生。

The one thing that you will see, Mike, is that a good portion of our long-term incentive compensation is tied to our stock price. And we want our employees to be shareholders and have a consistent objective to what our shareholders have as well. And so part of that incentive compensation expense does fluctuate from time to time with our share price. And so our expectation and hope is that we'll see our share price increase. And so from that, you will see the incentive compensation expense increase with that as well.

邁克，你會看到的一件事是，我們長期激勵薪酬的很大一部分與我們的股價掛鉤。我們希望我們的員工成為股東，並對我們的股東所擁有的東西有一個一致的目標。因此，部分激勵補償費用確實會隨著我們的股價波動。所以我們的期望和希望是我們會看到我們的股價上漲。因此，您將看到激勵補償費用也隨之增加。

Beyond that, Mike, that I would say for the current quarter versus a year ago, as I mentioned before, the core salary line item is up about 10%, with about 5% of that coming from headcount-related increases. Some of that's from acquisitions we've done, and we had about a 4% kind of merit increase impact to that as well throughout the year, and that reflects some of the experience we had for rightsizing the lower salaries, but also the market pressure that we're seeing.

除此之外，邁克，正如我之前提到的，與一年前相比，本季度的核心工資項目增長了約 10%，其中約 5% 來自與員工人數相關的增長。其中一些來自我們已經完成的收購，我們全年對這一點也產生了大約 4% 的績效增長影響，這反映了我們在調整較低工資方面的一些經驗，但也反映了市場壓力我們看到的。

And so near term, I think we'll probably see a little higher than our typical 2% as far as wage inflation going forward. But I think we'll see that settle down. And as Chris has said, that we'll continue to make investments in talent and especially in our frontline bankers and also in the technology space to continue to grow our business. But with that, we'll be holding the people accountable, making sure that we're getting the appropriate returns on those investments and showing the growth going forward.

所以在短期內，我認為就未來的工資通脹而言，我們可能會看到略高於我們典型的 2%。但我認為我們會看到它安定下來。正如克里斯所說，我們將繼續對人才進行投資，尤其是在我們的一線銀行家以及技術領域，以繼續發展我們的業務。但有了這個，我們將追究人們的責任，確保我們從這些投資中獲得適當的回報並展示未來的增長。

Yes. Don, the only thing I would add to that is, on the technology front, there has been a transition as we think about full stack engineers from subcontract labor to people that are part of our head count. We just think it's important as we continue to become the digital bank that we are that we control that talent. And so that's a piece of what you're seeing there, Mike. Yes.

是的。唐，我唯一要補充的是，在技術方面，當我們考慮全棧工程師從分包勞動到我們員工人數的一部分時，已經發生了轉變。我們只是認為，隨著我們繼續成為我們的數字銀行，我們控制這些人才很重要。這就是你在那兒看到的一部分，邁克。是的。

And then Mike, as far as the margin expansion, I don't want people to start thinking that we're going to be at a 3.7% margin because our risk profile is much different than what it was historically. And so it is relationship based, but we do see significant growth from that. And so one -- and just a simple math for that would be taking a look at our full year net interest income and if you just layered on top of that, the $1.2 billion that we've talked about for the repricing of the swaps and the treasuries that clearly gets you into the mid-3s and maybe not to the 3.7% range, but we would see some meaningful lift from here if the rates play out with this kind of environment.

然後邁克，就利潤率擴張而言，我不希望人們開始認為我們將達到 3.7% 的利潤率，因為我們的風險狀況與歷史上的情況大不相同。所以它是基於關係的，但我們確實看到了顯著的增長。所以一個 - 只是一個簡單的數學將看看我們全年的淨利息收入，如果你只是在此之上分層，我們已經討論過的 12 億美元的掉期重新定價和美國國債顯然會讓你進入 3s 中期，也許不會達到 3.7% 的範圍，但如果利率在這種環境下發揮作用，我們將從這裡看到一些有意義的提升。

And then just one follow-up on that comment about technology. So less consultants and more full-time tech employees so that you can better control your tech destiny? Is that the idea of this? And what was the tipping point for that change?

然後只是對有關技術的評論的一個後續行動。所以更少的顧問和更多的全職技術員工，這樣你就可以更好地控制你的技術命運？是這個想法嗎？這種變化的轉折點是什麼？

The tipping point was, as we were in the pandemic and everybody was short on talent, we were getting more turnover from some of our contractors than frankly we wanted to get, and we wanted to be able to literally have the continuity, and we wanted to drive our strategy in a consistent way with leadership. And so we made the decision in certain areas to dial back contract labor and to hire in what I say is full stack engineers, and the nice thing is with some of the acquisitions we've made, Mike, we have the kind of leaders that can attract the kind of people onto our platform that we want as we go to the next level.

轉折點是，由於我們正處於大流行之中，每個人都缺乏人才，我們從一些承包商那裡獲得的營業額比坦率地說我們想要的要多，我們希望能夠真正保持連續性，我們想要以與領導層一致的方式推動我們的戰略。因此，我們決定在某些領域減少合同工，並聘請我所說的全棧工程師，好消息是我們進行的一些收購，邁克，我們有這樣的領導者當我們進入下一個級別時，可以將我們想要的那種人吸引到我們的平台上。

And our next question is from Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Don, just one more follow-up on the balance sheet mix. So the securities portfolio has been hanging around $50 billion. And just want to understand with that planned runoff and that good slide you have in the back about the maturities, do you expect to keep the securities portfolio around this size from here? And then just trying to understand how that gets funded incrementally given that you're still expecting decent loan growth.

唐，只是資產負債表組合的另一項後續行動。因此，證券投資組合一直懸在 500 億美元左右。並且只是想了解計劃中的徑流以及您在後面關於到期日的良好幻燈片，您是否希望從這裡將證券投資組合保持在這個規模？然後只是試圖了解如何獲得增量資金，因為您仍然期望可觀的貸款增長。

Yes. There's really 2 pieces of our investment portfolio. One is the core book, which is about $40 billion, and the other is the U.S. treasuries, which are about $9 billion. I think near term, and our outlook would suggest that we think that core portfolio will hang in there around the $40 billion level. And so we think that's appropriate just from a liquidity perspective and a balance sheet mix. For the U.S. treasury portion of the portfolio, we'll make some assessments as that maturities -- as those maturities come through. And we'll get the benefit whether we use that for future funding or we just go ahead and roll that into the core portfolio. And so yet to be determined how that plays out, but I would say that there's probably less certainty on that $9 billion short-term treasury portfolio.

是的。我們的投資組合實際上有兩部分。一個是核心賬簿，大約 400 億美元，另一個是美國國債，大約 90 億美元。我認為短期內，我們的前景表明我們認為核心投資組合將保持在 400 億美元左右的水平。因此，我們認為僅從流動性角度和資產負債表組合來看，這是合適的。對於投資組合的美國國債部分，我們將在到期時進行一些評估 - 當這些到期時。無論我們將其用於未來的資金還是繼續將其納入核心投資組合，我們都將獲得收益。所以還有待確定它會如何發揮作用，但我想說的是，這 90 億美元的短期國債投資組合可能不太確定。

And just following on to that then, so the $1.2 billion benefit would -- does that contemplate like any type of delta in sizing of both the securities book and the overall swaps book as you get to those out years?

然後再繼續下去，那麼 12 億美元的收益將——這是否像任何類型的增量一樣考慮到你在那些年裡的證券賬簿和整體掉期賬簿的規模？

The swap book assumes that it would stay the same. And then on the treasury portfolio, it has either the assumed impact of rolling that over into more 1-year treasuries or using that for funding and it's the same net bottom line impact at this point in time.

交換書假設它會保持不變。然後在國債投資組合上，它要么具有將其轉入更多 1 年期國債的假設影響，要么將其用於融資，這與此時的淨底線影響相同。

Okay. And then just -- sorry, one more follow-up. Just do you have an understanding or can you help us understand just when the near-term swaps detriment just from the natural higher rates kind of gets to its bottom and then you start to get that incremental benefit rate of change starts to happen? I guess it sounds like that's in next year, but do you have an understanding of kind of when that pivot happens?

好的。然後只是- 抱歉，再跟進一次。只是你有一個理解，或者你能幫助我們理解，當短期掉期對自然較高利率的損害達到最低點，然後你開始得到變化的增量收益率開始發生？我想這聽起來像是在明年，但是你知道那個轉折點什麼時候發生嗎？

I would say that a couple of things we would have to know for that. When do short-term rates peak because that's going to be the main driver as to when that negative impact happens for the existing portfolio. And then as we have the rollovers of that book, we'll be picking up over 400 basis points on -- or excuse me, over 300 basis points on the swaps as they would roll over. And so that's -- that will help offset that. But it probably sometime in 2023 that we start to see that peak and move the other direction.

我會說一些我們必須知道的事情。短期利率何時見頂，因為這將成為現有投資組合何時發生負面影響的主要驅動因素。然後，當我們對那本書進行展期時，我們將在掉期交易中獲得超過 400 個基點——或者對不起，超過 300 個基點，因為它們會展期。這就是 - 這將有助於抵消這一點。但很可能在 2023 年的某個時候，我們開始看到那個高峰並轉向另一個方向。

And our next question is from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

A couple of questions. One, I just wanted to understand what kind of loan growth you've got baked into your outlook? And what is your expectation for how you're going to fund that loan growth?

幾個問題。一，我只是想了解您的前景中包含什麼樣的貸款增長？您對如何為貸款增長提供資金的期望是什麼？

So what we -- on the loan growth front, we would not see the same trajectory of loan growth that we've experienced in the last couple of quarters. Our guidance for Q4 is 2% to 4%, Betsy. And we've had a lot of lift from -- on the consumer side over the last several quarters. I don't see the same level of lift that. So I think you're going to see -- we haven't given guidance yet for 2023. But with respect to loan growth, we're targeting 2% to 4% in the fourth quarter.

因此，在貸款增長方面，我們不會看到與過去幾個季度相同的貸款增長軌跡。 Betsy，我們對第四季度的指導是 2% 到 4%。在過去的幾個季度中，我們從消費者方面獲得了很大的提升。我沒有看到同樣的提升水平。所以我想你會看到——我們還沒有給出 2023 年的指導。但關於貸款增長，我們的目標是在第四季度達到 2% 到 4%。

And just to fund that our guidance for the fourth quarter is also a 1% to 3% increase in our deposits. And if you go through the math, it's a pretty close match there as far as the midpoints of both are around that $3 billion kind of range. And so it's we think we'll be fairly close to funding that through just the core balance sheet growth. We have used other wholesale funding to help fill that gap in the last couple of quarters, but expect it to be more core going forward.

只是為了資助我們對第四季度的指導，我們的存款也增加了 1% 到 3%。如果你通過數學計算，就兩者的中點在 30 億美元左右的範圍內，這是一個非常接近的匹配。因此，我們認為僅通過核心資產負債表的增長就可以相當接近地為其提供資金。在過去的幾個季度中，我們已經使用其他批發資金來幫助填補這一空白，但預計它將成為未來的核心。

And if the deposits don't come through for whatever reason, can you just give us your hierarchy of how you would go about funding it? Is it securities roll off or you first go to the wholesale funding piece?

如果由於某種原因存款沒有通過，你能告訴我們你將如何資助它的層次結構嗎？是證券滾銷還是你先去批發融資？

Near term, we've been using FHLB advances and locking those into set maturities or term maturities. So we would probably continue that. And then as I mentioned before, we're still undecided as far as the roll off of the U.S. treasuries when they start coming through next year and then ['24] is to how we use those proceeds.

近期，我們一直在使用 FHLB 預付款並將其鎖定為固定期限或期限期限。所以我們可能會繼續這樣做。然後正如我之前提到的，我們還沒有決定明年美國國債何時開始到期，然後 ['24] 是我們如何使用這些收益。

And then just lastly, I know the forward curve is looking for the Fed to be done in early '23. But if they end up extending with the rate hike cycle going further into '23, how should we expect that impacts the outlook here? I know you mentioned that you've got benefit of the short term of the swaps rolling off that should help. But I'm just wondering, is there any timing that we should be considering here?

最後，我知道遠期曲線正在等待美聯儲在 23 年初完成。但是，如果它們最終隨著加息週期進一步延長到 23 年，我們應該如何預期這會影響這裡的前景？我知道你提到你已經從短期的掉期滾動中受益，這應該會有所幫助。但我只是想知道，我們是否應該在這裡考慮任何時機？

I don't think there's any cliff or any events there that we still view the rates going up, we'll still have a net positive even with deposit betas being higher than what they've been before, and then just the repricing of the swaps and the treasuries will be additive for us. And so we think that we still will be able to grow net interest income and margin throughout the next couple of years, even if rates do go beyond the current outlook.

我不認為那裡有任何懸崖或任何事件我們仍然認為利率上升，即使存款貝塔比以前更高，我們仍然會有淨正數，然後只是重新定價掉期和國債對我們來說是附加的。因此，我們認為，即使利率確實超出了目前的前景，我們仍然能夠在未來幾年內增加淨利息收入和利潤率。

Got it. Okay. And then just last question, going back to the quarter in mortgage for the quarter, very strong results here with. I just wanted to understand what the main driver of that was and the tail, the legs on that type of increase?

知道了。好的。然後是最後一個問題，回到本季度的抵押貸款季度，這裡的結果非常強勁。我只是想了解這種增長的主要驅動力是什麼以及尾巴，腿？

Sure. So for us, it was driven really by the purchase. 87% of our originations were purchased. And this is a relationship-based business, 30% were medical professionals. So ours will basically refinance business, Betsy, has completely dried up. I would envision from here that purchased mortgage continues to decline in this environment as we believe we're in for a cycle that's higher for longer.

當然。所以對我們來說，它真的是由購買驅動的。我們 87% 的原創作品被購買。這是一個基於關係的業務，30% 是醫療專業人員。所以我們的再融資業務，Betsy，已經完全枯竭了。從這裡我可以設想，在這種環境下，購買的抵押貸款會繼續下降，因為我們相信我們正處於一個更高、更長的周期。

Right. So this is reflecting loans that had probably started a quarter or 2 ago, so we should expect that should tail off. And are these 30-year fixed you're putting on or 15-year or ARM floaters, can you give us a sense of the construct?

正確的。因此，這反映了可能在一兩個季度前開始的貸款，所以我們應該預計這應該會減少。這些是 30 年固定的，還是 15 年或 ARM 浮動的，你能給我們一個構造的感覺嗎？

It tends to be more ARMs in 15 year. We do have some 30-year fix in some of our doctor, dentist program that we've had. But I'd say it's a mix of those. And we would expect to see the fourth quarter origination levels be lower than what the third quarter was. It still is a core product for us and something that we had underweighted in the past. So we still think there is room for some modest growth in the balance sheet there.

在 15 年內往往會出現更多的 ARM。我們在我們的一些醫生、牙醫項目中確實有一些 30 年的修復。但我會說它是這些的混合體。我們預計第四季度的發起水平將低於第三季度的水平。它仍然是我們的核心產品，也是我們過去低估的東西。所以我們仍然認為那裡的資產負債表有適度增長的空間。

And our final question will come from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

I wanted to follow up on your comments around the modest increase in the reserve rate due to the economic outlook. Can you give a little bit more detail on what kind of unemployment assumption is implicit in that reserve and what you'd expect the reserve rate to go to if unemployment were to increase to, say, the 5% to 5.5% range.

我想跟進你關於由於經濟前景而適度增加準備金率的評論。您能否更詳細地說明該儲備中隱含的失業假設是什麼，以及如果失業率上升到 5% 到 5.5% 的範圍，您預計儲備率會達到什麼水平。

Yes. As far as what we use as our baseline for our CECL reserves, we tend to start with the consensus assessments for Moody's. And so we did see a shift in that from last year to this year. I would say that Moody's unemployment levels are using about a 4% unemployment level for 2023. And I don't know off the top of my head what the impact would be of seeing that going to 5% because we'd have to have the other components of the economic outlook. But I would say that if we look at where our reserves were back at January 1, 2020, I would say that the unemployment levels and economic outlook was a little worse than what we're seeing now today, and our reserve levels there were about 10 or 15 basis points higher than what they are today for us. So it's a lot of moving parts and pieces, but I think that it's not going to be a huge change, but still would be reflective in our reserves.

是的。至於我們使用什麼作為我們的 CECL 儲備的基準，我們傾向於從對穆迪的共識評估開始。所以我們確實看到了從去年到今年的轉變。我會說穆迪的失業率在 2023 年使用了大約 4% 的失業率。而且我不知道看到 5% 會產生什麼影響，因為我們必須有經濟前景的其他組成部分。但我想說的是，如果我們看看我們的儲備在 2020 年 1 月 1 日的水平，我會說失業率和經濟前景比我們今天看到的要差一些，我們的儲備水平大約是比今天對我們來說高出 10 或 15 個基點。所以這是很多活動部件，但我認為這不會是一個巨大的變化，但仍然會反映在我們的儲備中。

That's helpful. And separately, it seems intuitive that the cohort that you're targeting with your Laurel Road products would perform relatively well in a downturn. But is there less credit history for this asset class? And if so, can you give a little bit of color on the kind of data and analytics that you're using to underwrite potential customers? And what's the approval rate of customers seeking a loan through Laurel Road and actually those that actually receive one?

這很有幫助。另外，您使用 Laurel Road 產品定位的同類群組在經濟低迷時期表現相對較好，這似乎很直觀。但是這種資產類別的信用記錄是否較少？如果是這樣，您能否對您用來為潛在客戶提供擔保的數據和分析類型進行一些說明？通過 Laurel Road 尋求貸款的客戶以及實際獲得貸款的客戶的批准率是多少？

I would say that we do have data for doctors and dentists' programs, both on the residential mortgage side and also for student loans. That history is continuing to be built out. We are using that insight in order to inform our credit underwriting decision. I don't have the exact approval rate for loans, but you would probably assume that it's fairly high given the nature of the doctor that we're approaching who is going from, say, $80,000 a year in compensation to $300,000-plus and has a firm commitment and a new assignment with a large hospital. So it's -- I would assume that it could be a fairly high approval rate.

我想說，我們確實有醫生和牙醫項目的數據，包括住宅抵押貸款和學生貸款。這段歷史正在繼續建立。我們正在使用這種洞察力來為我們的信用承保決策提供信息。我沒有確切的貸款批准率，但你可能會認為它相當高，因為我們正在接近的醫生的性質從每年 80,000 美元到 300,000 美元以上，並且已經堅定的承諾和與大型醫院的新任務。所以它 - 我會假設它可能是一個相當高的批准率。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Teleconference Service. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議服務。您現在可以斷開連接。

Again, thank you for participating in our call today. If you have any questions, you can direct them to our Investor Relations team (216) 689-4221. Thank you again. Goodbye.

再次感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。如果您有任何問題，您可以直接聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊 (216) 689-4221。再次感謝你。再見。