KeyCorp (KEY) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to KeyCorp's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to the Chairman and CEO, Chris Gorman. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，早上好，歡迎來到 KeyCorp 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。提醒一下，這次會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議轉交給主席兼首席執行官克里斯戈爾曼。請繼續。

Well, good morning, and thank you for joining us for KeyCorp's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Clark Khayat, our Chief Financial Officer; Don Kimble, our Vice Chairman and Chief Administrative Officer; and Mark Midkiff, our Chief Risk Officer.

好吧，早上好，感謝您加入我們的 KeyCorp 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席財務官 Clark Khayat；我們的副董事長兼首席行政官 Don Kimble；和我們的首席風險官 Mark Midkiff。

On Slide 2, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosure and non-GAAP financial measures. It covers our presentation materials and comments as well as the question-and-answer segment of our call.

在幻燈片 2 上，您會看到我們關於前瞻性披露和非 GAAP 財務措施的聲明。它涵蓋了我們的演示材料和評論以及我們電話的問答部分。

I am now moving to Slide 3. Before I comment on our quarterly results, I want to touch on 3 areas that I know have been top of mind for investors, namely deposits, capital and credit quality.

我現在轉到幻燈片 3。在我評論我們的季度業績之前，我想談談我知道投資者最關心的 3 個領域，即存款、資本和信貸質量。

Key has significantly strengthened each of these areas over the last decade. We have derisked our business and built a differentiated franchise that is well positioned for all business conditions, including the current environment.

Key 在過去十年中顯著加強了這些領域中的每一個。我們降低了我們的業務風險，並建立了一個差異化的特許經營權，該特許經營權可以很好地適應所有業務條件，包括當前環境。

Key's relationship-based business model provides us with strong granular deposit base and with attractive lending and fee-based opportunities. Our long-term standing strategic commitment to primacy that is serving as our client's primary bank continues to serve us well. Over 60% of our deposit balances are from consumers, wealth clients, small businesses and escrow accounts. Over 80% of our commercial balances are core operating accounts.

Key 基於關係的商業模式為我們提供了強大的精細存款基礎以及有吸引力的貸款和收費機會。作為我們客戶的主要銀行，我們對首要地位的長期戰略承諾繼續為我們服務。我們超過 60% 的存款餘額來自消費者、財富客戶、小型企業和託管賬戶。我們超過 80% 的商業餘額是核心運營賬戶。

The diversity of our deposits extends across client type, account size, industry and geography. Our deposits come from $3.5 million retail, small business private banking and commercial customers with 56% covered by FDIC insurance and an additional 10% of balances that are collateralized. In the first quarter, our period-end deposits remained stable and balances from March 31 to present remain relatively unchanged.

我們存款的多樣性涵蓋客戶類型、賬戶規模、行業和地域。我們的存款來自 350 萬美元的零售、小型企業私人銀行和商業客戶，其中 56% 由 FDIC 保險承保，另外 10% 的餘額有抵押。一季度，本行期末存款保持穩定，3月31日至今餘額基本保持不變。

With respect to capital, Key's position remains strong with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 9.1%. This positions us well to execute against our capital priorities, including supporting our clients. We are also aware of the heightened focus on accumulated other comprehensive income, AOCI.

在資本方面，Key 的地位依然強勁，普通股一級資本比率為 9.1%。這使我們能夠很好地執行我們的資本優先事項，包括支持我們的客戶。我們還意識到對累計其他綜合收益 AOCI 的高度關注。

AOCI improved this quarter by 13%, which drove a 20 basis point improvement in our tangible common equity to tangible asset ratio. Our capital position will benefit from the expected $2 billion improvement and AOCI by 12/31/24. Credit quality remains strong, once again reflecting our proactive and intentional derisking over the past decade.

本季度 AOCI 提高了 13%，這推動我們的有形普通股與有形資產比率提高了 20 個基點。我們的資本狀況將受益於預期的 20 億美元改善和 24 年 12 月 31 日的 AOCI。信用質量依然強勁，再次反映了我們在過去十年中積極主動地去風險化。

In our consumer bank, we serve a wide range of clients. Our weighted average FICO score at origination is above 770. In our commercial bank, 82% of our credit exposure is to relationship clients and 56% of our C&I portfolio is investment grade. We have built a strong originate-to-distribute model that strengthens our risk management and allows us to offer our clients a wide range of on- and off-balance sheet financing options.

在我們的消費者銀行，我們為範圍廣泛的客戶提供服務。我們最初的加權平均 FICO 分數高於 770。在我們的商業銀行中，我們 82% 的信用敞口是關係客戶，56% 的 C&I 投資組合是投資級別。我們建立了一個強大的從發起到分銷的模式，加強了我們的風險管理，並使我們能夠為客戶提供廣泛的表內和表外融資選擇。

In the first quarter, we raised $26 billion for our clients. Another area getting attention is commercial real estate. Our largest exposure is multifamily, including a growing affordable housing segment. There exists a significant shortage of available housing broadly and affordable housing specifically in the United States today. As such, affordable housing will continue to receive bipartisan government support.

第一季度，我們為客戶籌集了 260 億美元。另一個受到關注的領域是商業地產。我們最大的風險敞口是多戶家庭，包括不斷增長的經濟適用房部分。當今美國普遍存在可用住房和經濟適用房嚴重短缺的問題。因此，經濟適用房將繼續獲得兩黨政府的支持。

Importantly, we have limited exposure to high-risk areas such as office, lodging and retail. We also have unique insights into commercial real estate through our third-party commercial loan servicing business. Not only is this a great business with over $630 billion of servicing assets, but the business provides us with unique insight into the markets, which vary greatly by asset type and geography.

重要的是，我們對辦公、住宿和零售等高風險領域的敞口有限。我們還通過我們的第三方商業貸款服務業務對商業地產有獨到的見解。這不僅是一家擁有超過 6300 億美元服務資產的偉大企業，而且該業務還為我們提供了對市場的獨特洞察力，這些市場因資產類型和地理位置而異。

Each of these 3 areas that I've covered: deposits, capital and credit quality provide a foundation and support the long-term earnings power of our company.

我所涵蓋的這 3 個領域中的每一個：存款、資本和信用質量都為我們公司的長期盈利能力提供了基礎和支持。

With that as a backdrop, let me move to Slide 4 and touch on a few quarterly highlights before I turn it over to Clark to cover the quarter in detail.

以此為背景，讓我轉到幻燈片 4 並介紹幾個季度亮點，然後再交給 Clark 詳細介紹該季度。

This morning, we reported earnings of $275 million or $0.30 per common share. Our results included $126 million or $0.14 per share as a result of both our increase in allowance for credit losses and the expense actions we previously announced. The build in our allowance for credit losses is principally model-driven and reflective of a greater range of outcomes as we look ahead.

今天早上，我們報告收益為 2.75 億美元或每股普通股 0.30 美元。我們的業績包括 1.26 億美元或每股 0.14 美元，這是由於我們增加了信貸損失準備金和我們之前宣布的費用行動。我們的信用損失準備金的增加主要是模型驅動的，反映了我們展望未來的更大範圍的結果。

Our strong credit quality and guidance for net charge-offs, however, remain unchanged. Our expense actions this quarter were part of a company-wide effort to improve efficiency and support reinvestment back into our business. We completed actions this quarter, which represented over 4% of our expense base or $200 million in annualized benefit. This will allow us to hold non-interest expense relatively flat in spite of persistent inflation.

然而，我們強大的信貸質量和淨沖銷指引保持不變。我們本季度的開支行動是全公司提高效率和支持對業務進行再投資的努力的一部分。我們在本季度完成了行動，占我們支出基數的 4% 以上或年化收益 2 億美元。這將使我們能夠在持續通脹的情況下保持非利息支出相對平穩。

Our results this quarter were driven by year-over-year growth in both our consumer and commercial businesses. In our consumer business, we grew new households at a pace supporting our Investor Day target. Our commercial businesses also continued to add and expand relationships.

我們本季度的業績受到消費者和商業業務同比增長的推動。在我們的消費者業務中，我們以支持投資者日目標的速度增加了新家庭。我們的商業業務也繼續增加和擴展關係。

Recent market disruption has provided us with further opportunity to acquire clients and opportunistically add high-quality bankers to the platform. Net interest income declined from the fourth quarter, reflecting higher interest-bearing deposit costs and a shift in funding mix. Net interest income was also negatively impacted by our received fixed rate swaps, which are used to hedge our floating rate portfolio.

最近的市場動盪為我們提供了更多的機會來獲取客戶，併機會主義地將高質量的銀行家添加到平台中。淨利息收入較第四季度有所下降，反映出更高的生息存款成本和融資結構的轉變。淨利息收入也受到我們收到的固定利率掉期的負面影響，這些掉期用於對沖我們的浮動利率投資組合。

Swaps and treasuries reduced net interest income by $317 million this quarter and lowered our net interest margin by 72 basis points. Given the short duration of our swaps and treasuries and the meaningful repricing opportunity, we will see significant benefit to our net interest income beginning late this year and extending into 2024 and beyond.

本季度掉期和國債使淨利息收入減少了 3.17 億美元，並將我們的淨息差降低了 72 個基點。鑑於我們的掉期和國債存續期較短以及有意義的重新定價機會，我們將看到從今年年底開始並延續到 2024 年及以後的淨利息收入顯著受益。

We have continued to take actions to lock in the net interest income benefit going forward. Clark will cover our interest rate positioning in detail during his presentation.

我們繼續採取行動以鎖定未來的淨利息收入收益。克拉克將在他的演講中詳細介紹我們的利率定位。

Our fee-based businesses in the first quarter showed several areas of strength, but overall reflected expected weakness in capital markets. Although the market remains challenging, we did experience a record first quarter in our M&A advisory business. While we do not anticipate a significant pickup in our capital markets business in the first half of the year, we continue to expect deal activity to pick up sometime in the second half.

我們在第一季度的收費業務在多個領域表現出優勢，但總體上反映了資本市場的預期疲軟。儘管市場仍然充滿挑戰，但我們的併購諮詢業務確實在第一季度取得了創紀錄的成績。雖然我們預計今年上半年我們的資本市場業務不會顯著回升，但我們仍預計交易活動將在下半年某個時候回升。

As I pointed out on the prior slide, credit quality remained strong this quarter, with net charge-offs as a percentage of average loans of 15 basis points. Our credit losses remain near historic lows, and we remain confident in the way we have positioned our portfolio consistent with our moderate risk profile.

正如我在上一張幻燈片中指出的那樣，本季度信貸質量依然強勁，淨註銷占平均貸款的百分比為 15 個基點。我們的信用損失仍接近歷史低點，我們對我們的投資組合定位方式與我們的適度風險狀況保持一致充滿信心。

Despite the market disruption, we have not lost focus on driving our targeted scale strategy and investing in points of differentiation. In our wealth business, for example, which currently has $54 billion in assets under management, we are bringing the power and capabilities of our private bank to better serve mass affluent clients through our retail channel. Our Laurel Road business is expanding to serve the distinct needs of health care professionals through hospital system partnerships.

儘管市場受到干擾，但我們並沒有失去對推動目標規模戰略和投資差異化點的關注。例如，在我們目前管理著 540 億美元資產的財富業務中，我們正在利用我們私人銀行的力量和能力，通過我們的零售渠道更好地為大眾富裕客戶提供服務。我們的 Laurel Road 業務正在擴展，以通過醫院系統合作夥伴關係滿足醫療保健專業人員的獨特需求。

In our commercial businesses, we are empowering our relationship managers with a comprehensive suite of tools to enhance productivity and to better support our clients. I remain confident in Key in the long-term outlook for our business. We have durable relationship-based businesses that will continue to serve our clients, our prospects and deliver value to our shareholders.

在我們的商業業務中，我們正在為我們的客戶經理提供一套全面的工具，以提高生產力並更好地支持我們的客戶。我對 Key 對我們業務的長期前景充滿信心。我們擁有持久的基於關係的業務，這些業務將繼續為我們的客戶、我們的前景提供服務並為我們的股東創造價值。

Lastly, I would like to thank our 18,000 employees for what they do each and every day to serve our clients.

最後，我要感謝我們的 18,000 名員工每天為我們的客戶服務所做的一切。

With that, I'll turn it over to Clark to provide more details on the results of the quarter and our 2023 outlook. Clark?

有了這個，我將把它交給克拉克，提供有關本季度結果和我們 2023 年展望的更多細節。克拉克？

Thanks, Chris, and good morning. I'm now on Slide 6. For the first quarter, net income from continuing operations was $0.30 per common share, down $0.08 from the prior quarter and down $0.15 from last year, driven in part by 2 notable items. We incurred $64 million of restructuring expense or $0.06 per share, which included $36 million of severance and other related costs and $28 million of corporate real estate related rationalization and other contract terminations or renegotiations.

謝謝，克里斯，早上好。我現在在幻燈片 6 上。第一季度，持續經營淨收入為每股普通股 0.30 美元，比上一季度下降 0.08 美元，比去年下降 0.15 美元，部分原因是有兩個值得注意的項目。我們產生了 6400 萬美元的重組費用或每股 0.06 美元，其中包括 3600 萬美元的遣散費和其他相關費用以及 2800 萬美元的公司房地產相關合理化和其他合同終止或重新談判費用。

Our results also included $94 million of additional provision expense in excess of charge-offs or $0.08 per share as we continue to build our reserves, reflecting a more cautious economic outlook and view on home prices.

我們的業績還包括 9400 萬美元的額外撥備費用，超過沖銷額或每股 0.08 美元，因為我們繼續建立儲備，反映出更加謹慎的經濟前景和對房價的看法。

Turning to Slide 7. Average loans for the quarter were $119.8 billion, up 16% from the year ago period and up 2% from the prior quarter as we continue to support relationship clients. Commercial loans increased 15% from the year ago quarter. Relative to the same period, consumer loans increased 16%, reflecting growth in consumer mortgage.

轉到幻燈片 7。由於我們繼續支持關係客戶，本季度的平均貸款為 1198 億美元，比去年同期增長 16%，比上一季度增長 2%。商業貸款較上年同期增長 15%。與同期相比，消費貸款增長 16%，反映了消費抵押貸款的增長。

Compared with the fourth quarter of 2022, commercial loans grew 3%. Our commercial growth continues to reflect the strength in our targeted industry verticals and support for our relationship clients.

與2022年第四季度相比，商業貸款增長3%。我們的商業增長繼續反映出我們在目標行業垂直領域的實力以及對我們關係客戶的支持。

Continuing on to Slide 8. Average deposits totaled $143.4 billion for the first quarter of 2023, down 5% from the year ago period and down $2.3 billion or 2% compared to the prior quarter. Year-over-year, we saw declines in retail deposits, driven by elevated spend due to inflation, normalization from pandemic levels, and changing client behavior due to higher rates.

繼續看幻燈片 8。2023 年第一季度的平均存款總額為 1,434 億美元，同比下降 5%，與上一季度相比下降 23 億美元或 2%。與去年同期相比，我們看到零售存款下降，原因是通貨膨脹導致支出增加、大流行水平正常化以及利率上升導致客戶行為改變。

Commercial balances, which included $6 billion of brokered deposits remained relatively flat. The decrease in deposits from the prior quarter reflects a continuation of these same trends.

包括 60 億美元經紀存款在內的商業餘額保持相對平穩。存款較上一季度減少反映了這些相同趨勢的延續。

Interest-bearing deposit costs increased 62 basis points from the prior quarter and our cumulative deposit beta was 29% since the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022. Our outlook for 2023 now assumes a cumulative deposit beta peaking in the low 40s.

自美聯儲於 2022 年 3 月開始加息以來，計息存款成本比上一季度增加了 62 個基點，我們的累計存款貝塔係數為 29%。我們對 2023 年的展望現在假設累計存款貝塔係數在 40 年代的低點達到峰值。

Turning to Slide 9. We wanted to provide incremental detail on the granularity and composition of our $143 billion deposit portfolio. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 54% of our deposits came from consumer, wealth and small business clients. An incremental 6% of deposits are from low-cost, stable escrow balances.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們希望提供有關我們 1430 億美元存款組合的粒度和構成的更多詳細信息。截至第一季度末，我們約 54% 的存款來自消費者、財富和小型企業客戶。增加 6% 的存款來自低成本、穩定的託管餘額。

The remaining approximately 40% of our deposits comes from our large corporate and middle market commercial clients. Over 80% of the commercial segment deposit balances are from core operating accounts. Our total deposit -- of our total deposits, 56% are covered by FDIC insurance, while an additional 10% are collateralized. We maintain access to enough liquidity to cover over 150% of uninsured and uncollateralized deposits.

我們其餘約 40% 的存款來自我們的大型企業和中型市場商業客戶。超過 80% 的商業部門存款餘額來自核心經營賬戶。我們的總存款——在我們的總存款中，56% 由 FDIC 保險承保，另外 10% 有抵押。我們保持足夠的流動性，以覆蓋 150% 以上的無保險和無抵押存款。

The quality of our deposit base derives from the strength of our relationship-based strategy, which has benefited Key both from a balanced stability and cost perspective. At period end, our loan-to-deposit ratio was 84%.

我們存款基礎的質量源於我們基於關係的戰略的優勢，從平衡的穩定性和成本的角度來看，這使 Key 受益。期末，我們的貸存比為 84%。

Now moving to Slide 10. Taxable equivalent net interest income was $1.1 billion for the first quarter compared with $1 billion in the year ago quarter and $1.2 billion in the prior quarter. Our net interest margin was 2.47% for the first quarter compared to 2.46% for the same period last year and 2.73% for the prior quarter.

現在轉到幻燈片 10。第一季度應稅淨利息收入為 11 億美元，去年同期為 10 億美元，上一季度為 12 億美元。我們第一季度的淨息差為 2.47%，去年同期為 2.46%，上一季度為 2.73%。

Year-over-year, net interest income and the net interest margin benefited from higher earning asset balances and higher interest rates, partly offset by higher interest-bearing deposit costs and a shift in funding mix. Relative to Q4, our net interest margin was negatively impacted by 22 basis points related to higher interest-bearing deposit costs and 22 basis points from a change in funding mix and liquidity and loan fees, partly offset by 18 basis points related to higher interest rates and earning asset growth.

與去年同期相比，淨利息收入和淨息差受益於更高的收益資產餘額和更高的利率，部分被更高的生息存款成本和融資結構的轉變所抵消。與第四季度相比，我們的淨息差受到與更高的生息存款成本相關的 22 個基點的負面影響，以及因資金組合和流動性和貸款費用的變化而受到的 22 個基點的負面影響，部分被與更高的利率相關的 18 個基點所抵消並獲得資產增長。

As Chris noted earlier, our swap portfolio and short-dated treasuries reduced net interest margin by 72 basis points in the quarter. Additionally, the net interest income was lower, reflecting 2 fewer days in the quarter.

正如克里斯之前指出的那樣，我們的掉期投資組合和短期國債在本季度將淨息差降低了 72 個基點。此外，淨利息收入較低，反映本季度減少了 2 天。

Turning to Slide 11. As previously mentioned, Key seems to benefit significantly from the maturity of our short-dated swap book and treasuries. This opportunity is consistent with the $1 billion of upside we've been talking about over the last few quarters. While we recently offered more detail on the swaps and treasuries by quarter and interest rate, we thought it would be valuable to include a view on the realization of that potential value in both timing and amount.

轉到幻燈片 11。如前所述，Key 似乎從我們的短期互換賬簿和國債的到期中受益匪淺。這個機會與我們在過去幾個季度一直在談論的 10 億美元的上漲空間是一致的。雖然我們最近按季度和利率提供了有關掉期和國庫券的更多詳細信息，但我們認為在時間和金額上包含對實現該潛在價值的看法是有價值的。

The chart on Slide 11 shows this with the forward curve. We do not include -- we do include the value should short-term rates remain at current levels in a higher prolonger scenario as well.

幻燈片 11 上的圖表用遠期曲線顯示了這一點。我們不包括 - 我們確實包括短期利率在更高的長期情景中保持在當前水平的價值。

We have also gotten questions about how we plan to lock in this value. As we've shared, we've taken a measure, but opportunistic approach to adding hedges to address this potential. The analysis on Slide 11 reflects the additional hedging activity we've undertaken beginning in Q4 and since. The point here is to provide one more level of depth to clarify the timing and magnitude of this opportunity. As this demonstrates, we continue to see significant future value in NII as these swaps and treasuries mature.

我們也收到了有關我們計劃如何鎖定此值的問題。正如我們所分享的那樣，我們採取了一種措施，但採取了機會主義的方法來增加對沖以應對這一潛力。幻燈片 11 的分析反映了我們從第四季度開始及此後開展的額外對沖活動。這裡的重點是提供更多層次的深度來闡明這個機會的時間和重要性。正如這表明的那樣，隨著這些互換和國債的成熟，我們繼續看到 NII 的重要未來價值。

Moving to Slide 12. Noninterest income was $608 million in the first quarter of 2023 compared to $676 million for the year ago period, and $671 million in the fourth quarter. The decline in noninterest income from the year ago period reflects a $24 million decline in service charges on deposit accounts due to changes in our NSF/OD fees structure that we previously discussed and implemented in September and lower account analysis fees related to interest rates.

轉到幻燈片 12。2023 年第一季度非利息收入為 6.08 億美元，去年同期為 6.76 億美元，第四季度為 6.71 億美元。非利息收入較上年同期下降反映了存款賬戶服務費減少 2400 萬美元，這是由於我們之前在 9 月討論並實施的 NSF/OD 費用結構發生變化，以及與利率相關的賬戶分析費用較低。

Additionally, investment banking and debt placement fees declined $18 million, reflecting lower syndication fees, partly offset by an increase in advisory fees while corporate services income declined $15 million, reflecting lower loan fees and market-related adjustments in the prior period.

此外，投資銀行和債務配售費用下降了 1800 萬美元，反映了較低的銀團費用，部分被諮詢費的增加所抵消，而企業服務收入下降了 1500 萬美元，反映了較低的貸款費用和前期與市場相關的調整。

The decline in noninterest income from the fourth quarter reflects a $27 million decline in investment banking and debt placement driven by lower advisory and syndication fees. Recall that Q1 is historically the low point for investment banking activity in the year. Other income decreased by $20 million driven by Visa litigation assessment and market-related adjustments. Additionally, corporate services income decreased by $13 million, reflecting lower derivative volumes.

第四季度非利息收入的下降反映出投資銀行業務和債務配售減少了 2700 萬美元，這是由於諮詢和銀團費用減少所致。回想一下，從歷史上看，第一季度是當年投資銀行活動的低點。受 Visa 訴訟評估和市場相關調整的影響，其他收入減少了 2000 萬美元。此外，企業服務收入減少了 1300 萬美元，反映出衍生品交易量下降。

Moving on to Slide 13. Total noninterest expense for the quarter was $1.18 billion, up $106 million from the year ago period and up $20 million from last quarter, inclusive of $64 million of restructuring charges related to actions we completed this quarter to take out $200 million in annualized costs. As we shared on the Q4 call, we took these steps proactively to support investment in our business in the face of continued inflation. Compared with the year ago quarter and in addition to restructuring charges, personnel expense increased, reflecting an increase in salaries and headcount, partly offset by lower incentive compensation.

轉到幻燈片 13。本季度的非利息總支出為 11.8 億美元，比去年同期增加 1.06 億美元，比上一季度增加 2000 萬美元，其中包括與我們在本季度完成的行動相關的 6400 萬美元重組費用，支出 200 美元萬年化成本。正如我們在第四季度的電話會議上分享的那樣，面對持續的通貨膨脹，我們積極採取這些步驟來支持對我們業務的投資。與去年同期相比，除了重組費用外，人事費用也有所增加，反映出工資和員工人數的增加，部分被較低的激勵薪酬所抵消。

Compared to the prior quarter, and in addition to restructuring, business services and professional fees declined $15 million in marketing expense declined $10 million. Additionally, other expense increased in the first quarter by $9 million reflecting an increase in the base FDIC assessment rate.

與上一季度相比，除重組外，商業服務和專業費用減少了 1500 萬美元，營銷費用減少了 1000 萬美元。此外，第一季度其他費用增加了 900 萬美元，反映出 FDIC 基本評估利率的提高。

Moving now to Slide 14. Overall, credit quality remains strong. For the first quarter, net charge-offs were $45 million or 15 basis points of average loans, which remain near historically low levels. Our provision for credit losses was $139 million for the first quarter, which, as we pointed out, exceeded net charge-offs by $94 million.

現在轉到幻燈片 14。總體而言，信貸質量依然強勁。第一季度，淨註銷為 4500 萬美元或平均貸款的 15 個基點，仍接近歷史低位。我們第一季度的信貸損失準備金為 1.39 億美元，正如我們指出的那樣，這比淨沖銷額高出 9400 萬美元。

30- to 89-day delinquencies to period-end loans were down 1 basis point to 14 basis points, while 90-plus day delinquencies remain stable. The excess provision increases our allowance for credit losses, reflecting a more cautious model-driven assumptions. Despite the increase in the allowance, our outlook for net charge-offs in 2023 of 25 to 30 basis points remains unchanged and well below our through-the-cycle levels of 40 to 60 basis points.

期末貸款的 30 至 89 天拖欠率下降 1 個基點至 14 個基點，而 90 天以上的拖欠率保持穩定。超額撥備增加了我們的信用損失準備金，反映了更謹慎的模型驅動假設。儘管準備金增加，但我們對 2023 年 25 至 30 個基點的淨註銷前景保持不變，遠低於我們 40 至 60 個基點的整個週期水平。

Moving to Slide 15. With regard to commercial real estate in particular, Key's exposure is well controlled and credit quality remains strong. Over the past decade, we meaningfully repositioned our commercial real estate book by sharply reducing our exposure to construction and homebuilders and reducing the level of commercial real estate loans in our book.

轉到幻燈片 15。特別是在商業房地產方面，Key 的風險敞口得到了很好的控制，信貸質量依然強勁。在過去的十年中，我們通過大幅減少我們對建築和房屋建築商的敞口並降低我們賬簿中的商業房地產貸款水平，有意義地重新定位了我們的商業房地產賬簿。

We focus on relationship lending with select owners and operators. Our improved risk profile has been demonstrated in Key's most recent stress test results where projected losses in our commercial real estate book stands at 8.2% compared to 11.5% for peers.

我們專注於與特定所有者和運營商的關係貸款。 Key 最近的壓力測試結果證明了我們改進的風險狀況，我們的商業房地產賬簿中的預計損失為 8.2%，而同行為 11.5%。

Now on to Slide 16. Our liquidity position is strong. Our period-end cash balances at the Federal Reserve stood at $8 billion, and we maintain flexibility with significant levels of unused borrowing capacity from additional sources. We would expect to maintain higher cash balances until the market stabilizes. Our levels of additional available liquidity have not changed materially since the end of the quarter.

現在轉到幻燈片 16。我們的流動性狀況良好。我們在美聯儲的期末現金餘額為 80 億美元，我們保持靈活性，從其他來源獲得大量未使用的借貸能力。我們預計將保持較高的現金餘額，直到市場穩定下來。自本季度末以來，我們的額外可用流動性水平沒有發生重大變化。

On to Slide 17. We ended the first quarter with common equity Tier 1 ratio of 9.1% within our targeted range of 9% to 9.5%. This provides us with sufficient capacity to continue to support our relationship customers and their needs.

轉到幻燈片 17。我們在第一季度末的普通股一級比率為 9.1%，處於我們 9% 至 9.5% 的目標範圍內。這為我們提供了足夠的能力來繼續支持我們的關係客戶及其需求。

We completed $38 million of open market share repurchases in the first quarter related to our employee compensation plan. Given market conditions, we do not expect to engage in material share repurchases in the near term. We will continue to focus our capital in supporting relationship client activity and paying dividends.

我們在第一季度完成了與員工薪酬計劃相關的 3800 萬美元的公開市場股票回購。鑑於市場狀況，我們預計短期內不會進行重大的股票回購。我們將繼續將資本集中在支持關係客戶活動和支付股息上。

Over the last 6 weeks, there's been significant discussion of AOCI and its potential inclusion in CET1 capital levels for Category 4 banks. We've historically chosen to put most of our portfolio purchases and available for sale. And given the recent market rise in rates, we saw significant increases in the negative mark.

在過去的 6 周里，人們對 AOCI 及其可能包含在第 4 類銀行的 CET1 資本水平中進行了重要討論。我們歷來選擇將大部分投資組合購買並可供出售。鑑於近期市場利率上升，我們看到負值顯著增加。

As time passes and if rates have come down, we've seen our AOCI mark decrease by 13% from $6.3 billion at 12/31 to $5.5 billion at 3/31. We share on Slide 16, the expected reduction in the AOCI mark from 3/31 to the end of this year and the end of 2024. Over that time frame, the AOCI mark declined by approximately 40%. And while this analysis assumes the forward curve, it's important to note that 90% of the value is for maturities and cash flows that is not rate dependent.

隨著時間的推移，如果利率下降，我們已經看到我們的 AOCI 標記從 12/31 的 63 億美元下降 13% 到 3/31 的 55 億美元。我們在幻燈片 16 上分享了 AOCI 標記從 3/31 到今年年底和 2024 年底的預期減少。在此期間，AOCI 標記下降了約 40%。雖然此分析假設了遠期曲線，但重要的是要注意，90% 的價值是針對與利率無關的期限和現金流量。

Although we have no unique insight into the path of potential regulatory changes, as we've seen historically when bank capital regulations have changed, they carry with them comment periods and a reasonable phase-in time frame. Our view is that for any new requirements, our reduction in AOCI mark and more significantly, our earnings would allow us to organically accrete capital to required levels over the necessary period.

儘管我們對潛在監管變化的路徑沒有獨特的見解，但正如我們在歷史上看到的銀行資本法規發生變化時，它們帶有評論期和合理的逐步實施時間框架。我們的觀點是，對於任何新要求，我們減少 AOCI 標記，更重要的是，我們的收益將使我們能夠在必要的時期內有機地將資本增加到所需的水平。

Slide 18 updates our full year 2023 outlook. The guidance is relative to our full year 2022 results. We expect average loans to grow between 6% and 9%. And importantly, most of this growth has already occurred relative to 2022, so we don't expect material loan balance growth. We'll continue to support relationship clients by recycling capital throughout the year.

幻燈片 18 更新了我們的 2023 年全年展望。該指引與我們 2022 年全年的業績相關。我們預計平均貸款將增長 6% 至 9%。而且重要的是，這種增長大部分已經發生在 2022 年，因此我們預計貸款餘額不會有實質性增長。我們將在全年通過回收資金繼續支持關係客戶。

We expect average deposits to be flat to down 2%. Net interest income is now expected to decline by 1% to 3% driven by higher interest-bearing deposit costs and a continued shift in funding mix. Our guidance is based on the forward curve, assuming a Fed funds rate peaking at 5.1% in the third quarter and starting to decline in the fourth quarter. These interest rate assumptions, along with our expectations for customer behavior and the competitive pricing environment are very fluid and will continue to impact our outlook, prospectively.

我們預計平均存款將持平至下降 2%。由於生息存款成本上升和融資結構持續轉變，預計淨利息收入將下降 1% 至 3%。我們的指引基於遠期曲線，假設聯邦基金利率在第三季度達到 5.1% 的峰值並在第四季度開始下降。這些利率假設以及我們對客戶行為和競爭性定價環境的預期非常不穩定，並將繼續影響我們的前景。

Noninterest income guidance is unchanged. We continue to expect it to be down 1% to 3%, reflecting the implementation of our new NSF/OD fees structure last year and continued challenging capital markets activity, at least in the first half. Our noninterest expense outlook is also unchanged. We expect it to be relatively stable, driven in part by the actions we took last quarter to accelerate cost savings, which includes the impact of the $64 million in restructuring charge.

非利息收入指引不變。我們繼續預計它會下降 1% 至 3%，這反映出我們去年實施了新的 NSF/OD 費用結構，並繼續挑戰資本市場活動，至少在上半年是這樣。我們的非利息支出前景也沒有改變。我們預計它會相對穩定，部分原因是我們上個季度為加速成本節約而採取的行動，其中包括 6400 萬美元重組費用的影響。

For the year, we continue to expect credit quality to remain strong and net charge-offs to be in the 25 to 30 basis point range, well below our over-the-cycle range of 40 to 60 basis points. Our guidance for our GAAP tax rate is now 20% to 21%. We feel confident in the foundation of our business, the relationship-driven value of our deposit book, the durability of our balance franchise and our improved risk profile.

今年，我們繼續預計信貸質量將保持強勁，淨沖銷將在 25 至 30 個基點範圍內，遠低於我們 40 至 60 個基點的整個週期範圍。我們對 GAAP 稅率的指導現在是 20% 到 21%。我們對我們的業務基礎、我們存款簿的關係驅動價值、我們餘額特許經營權的持久性和我們改善的風險狀況充滿信心。

Despite near-term headwinds, we continue to be focused on execution in 2023 and the strong long-term earnings power of our company.

儘管近期存在不利因素，但我們仍將重點放在 2023 年的執行力和公司強大的長期盈利能力上。

With that, I'll now turn the call back to the operator for instructions on the Q&A portion of the call. Operator?

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，以獲取有關電話問答部分的說明。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We go to the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們前往美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala 電話。

So maybe just starting on deposits. We've obviously gone from mid- to high 20s beta to 30s, now low 40s. I guess, Chris, Clark, give us a sense of just in terms of your comfort level that this high -- if the forward curve or at least if the Fed is done with 1 more hike why the low 40s beta should be the right number in terms of your confidence level and just a rigor of the analysis that went behind that assumption?

所以也許只是從存款開始。我們顯然已經從 20 多歲的中高貝塔到 30 多歲，現在是 40 多歲。我想，克里斯，克拉克，就你們的舒適度而言，讓我們感覺到這麼高——如果遠期曲線，或者至少如果美聯儲完成了 1 次加息，為什麼 40 多歲的低貝塔值應該是正確的數字就您的信心水平以及該假設背後的分析的嚴謹性而言？

Sure. We'll get into that analysis in just a second. But there's no question that we early were surprised at how low the betas were and as of late, we've been surprised at the steepness of the curve. So your question is a good one. Before I turn it over to Clark, let me just give you a little bit of context on our deposit base.

當然。我們將在一秒鐘內進行分析。但毫無疑問，我們早些時候對貝塔值的低程度感到驚訝，而最近，我們對曲線的陡峭程度感到驚訝。所以你的問題很好。在我把它交給克拉克之前，讓我先簡單介紹一下我們的存款基礎。

Our total cost of deposits as is in the deck there is 99 basis points. Our cost of interest-bearing deposits are 1.36%. As we mentioned, our cumulative beta is 29%. And as you just brought up, we now expect betas to peak in the low 40s.

我們的存款總成本為 99 個基點。我們的計息存款成本為 1.36%。正如我們提到的，我們的累積貝塔係數是 29%。正如您剛才提到的那樣，我們現在預計貝塔係數將在 40 多歲左右達到頂峰。

But I just want to talk a little bit about the composition of our deposit base. We are a business that's more heavily canted to commercial than retail. And if you think about those deposits, these are people that we've helped through many cycles. Most recently, we've helped through PPP. Over 80% of these accounts are operating accounts. And so when people talk about what's insured, what's not insured, I think 1 thing that some people miss is if you're running a $200 million or $300 million or $400 million business and we have the operating account those deposits aren't going to go anywhere because it's a living, breathing thing.

但我只想談談我們存款基礎的構成。我們是一家更傾向於商業而非零售的企業。如果你想想那些存款，這些人是我們幫助過很多周期的人。最近，我們通過 PPP 提供了幫助。這些賬戶中超過 80% 是運營賬戶。因此，當人們談論什麼有保險，什麼沒有保險時，我認為有些人錯過的一件事是，如果你經營著一家價值 2 億美元、3 億美元或 4 億美元的企業，而我們有運營賬戶，那麼這些存款就不會存入去任何地方，因為它是有生命的、會呼吸的東西。

So I just -- I thought I would just give you that context because when we think about deposits, we always kind of bifurcate it in by category. But getting back to your question, Clark, give us the rigor behind the 40 -- low 40s and our confidence and same.

所以我只是 - 我想我只會給你那個背景，因為當我們考慮存款時，我們總是按類別將它分成兩部分。但是回到你的問題，克拉克，給我們 40 歲的嚴密性——低 40 歲和我們的信心。

Yes. So I'd start, I think, with balances Ebrahim, I think we feel very good about where our balances sit today relative to where they have been, relative to the market we're in, and relative to competitors. So it starts with balances and then you get to pricing. As we've talked about in the past, we've been more focused on retention of deposits than acquisition of new deposits, and I think that is reflected in the beta to date.

是的。因此，我認為，從餘額開始，易卜拉欣，我認為我們對今天的餘額相對於過去的位置、相對於我們所處的市場以及相對於競爭對手的位置感覺非常好。所以它從餘額開始，然後你開始定價。正如我們過去談到的那樣，我們更注重保留存款而不是獲取新存款，我認為這反映在迄今為止的測試版中。

The other point since last sort of third quarter, fourth quarter, as we've watched the market develop, I think we -- while we would not purport to have perfect information about behavior, we have a much better view on how customers are interacting. I think the commercial betas have mostly played through. So we've seen those come up. Many of those, as we've talked about, 4 are indexed and others, there's been a lot of conversation engagement with commercial clients.

自上次第三季度、第四季度以來的另一點，隨著我們觀察市場的發展，我認為我們——雖然我們不會聲稱擁有關於行為的完美信息，但我們對客戶的互動方式有了更好的了解.我認為商業測試版已經基本完成。所以我們已經看到這些出現了。正如我們所討論的那樣，其中有 4 個已編入索引，而其他的則與商業客戶進行了很多對話。

The consumers are always slower to move, and we believe at this point, we have a better view on how they're behaving, the types of accounts they want and how competitors are reacting. So when we look at the low 40s number up a bit from the high 30s, we have some confidence that we can deploy beta in across the retail franchise, but also in some targeted customer sets to not only retain but potentially acquire some deposits going forward.

消費者總是行動緩慢，我們相信在這一點上，我們對他們的行為方式、他們想要的賬戶類型以及競爭對手的反應有更好的了解。因此，當我們看到 40 多歲的低位數字比 30 多歲的高位略有上升時，我們有信心可以在整個零售特許經營中部署測試版，而且在一些目標客戶群中不僅可以保留而且可能會在未來獲得一些存款.

Got it. And just maybe a quick one, Clark, on the Slide 11, the bar chart with the NII upside from swaps and treasury roll-off. Give us a sense of sensitivity if rates are 100 basis points lower next year versus today? What does that mean for that upside that you lay out there?

知道了。也許只是一個快速的，克拉克，在幻燈片 11 上，條形圖顯示 NII 從掉期和國債滾降中上漲。如果明年的利率比今天低 100 個基點，會給我們一種敏感性嗎？這對你在那里布局的優勢意味著什麼？

Yes. So what's embedded in the chart on the page, Ebrahim is the forward curve, which is coming off. I don't have in front of me exactly what those rates are, but they're coming down pretty significantly over that time frame. I could follow up with a little more sensitivity, but effectively, you can think about the forward curve in that $720 million range as we talked about annualized. Maybe the right comparison is if rates didn't move at all and the spot rate just sort of played out, you'd get back to that $1 billion number. So you see a little bit of a sensitivity between higher for longer version where the spot rate just sort of sticks versus the forward curve, which is coming down fairly significantly over the next 7 quarters.

是的。所以嵌入在頁面圖表中的是 Ebrahim，它是遠期曲線，它正在消失。我不知道這些利率到底是多少，但在那個時間段內它們正在顯著下降。我可以更敏感地跟進，但實際上，你可以考慮我們談到年化時 7.2 億美元範圍內的遠期曲線。也許正確的比較是，如果利率根本沒有變動，而即期匯率只是發揮作用，你就會回到那個 10 億美元的數字。因此，您會看到較長版本的較高版本之間存在一點敏感性，其中即期匯率只是某種程度上與遠期曲線保持一致，在接下來的 7 個季度中，遠期曲線將顯著下降。

And I think in the prepared remarks, you said you were taking actions to lock that in. How are you doing that?

我想在準備好的發言中，你說你正在採取行動來鎖定它。你是怎麼做到的？

So I think we've shared before, but I'm happy to talk about it. So if you think about 2023, we had -- at the beginning of the year, about $6.2 billion of received fixed swaps rolling off, $1.7 billion in the first quarter at a rate of $2.62 billion. So that was sort of the highest of the 2-year rate. The rest will roll off through the year. So another $4.5 billion. We're not replacing those. So we're going to allow on that portion, the natural asset sensitivity of that loan book to come through.

所以我想我們之前分享過，但我很高興談論它。因此，如果你考慮到 2023 年，我們在年初收到了大約 62 億美元的固定掉期，第一季度為 17 億美元，增長率為 26.2 億美元。所以這是 2 年期利率中最高的。其餘的將在全年滾動。所以還有 45 億美元。我們不會更換那些。因此，我們將允許那部分貸款賬簿的自然資產敏感性通過。

Next year, another $7.5 billion of swaps mature. And we've essentially replaced those with a combination of forward starters at an average rate of 3.4%. So there's some negative carry in that. But in the forward rate, they actually are a bit in the money by the end of the year. And then the other half with floor spreads that kick in at 3.40%. And the value of that, as you can imagine, is we get all of the floating rate value above 3.40%, until the forward curve comes down.

明年，另有 75 億美元的互換到期。我們基本上已經用平均 3.4% 的前鋒首發組合取代了那些。所以這裡面有一些負面影響。但以遠期匯率計算，到年底他們實際上已經賺了一點錢。然後另一半的最低點差為 3.40%。正如您可以想像的那樣，其價值是我們將所有浮動利率值都保持在 3.40% 以上，直到遠期曲線下降。

And if we were in a higher rate environment, we would benefit from actually not hitting that floor. So we think we've managed the downside risk there quite well and preserve some of the upside. The reason we wouldn't do or haven't done more or all floors or floor spreads at this point is just the cost of volatility is pretty high. So we're trying to balance the kind of the risk reward on that trade.

如果我們處於更高利率的環境中，我們將受益於實際上沒有達到那個底線。因此，我們認為我們已經很好地管理了那裡的下行風險並保留了一些上行空間。在這一點上，我們不會做或沒有做更多或所有地板或地板價差的原因只是波動的成本非常高。因此，我們正在嘗試平衡該交易的風險回報類型。

Next, we go to the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

接下來，我們將與 Piper Sandler 一起探討 Scott Siefers 的路線。

Clark, as we look for sort of from the margin at 2.47% now and then that kind of, I guess, aspirational margin near the 3.20% at treasuries and swaps. I guess 1 of the big things has been sort of what happens between here and there. Do you have a sense for when -- based on what you see now, when the margin would bottom, where that might be? And then kind of more specifically when it would start to inflect upward to? I know the treasury start to -- the treasuries and swaps, that's more of an end of 2023 and into 2024. But will we get a margin inflection this year? Or is that something that do we continue to bleed out a bit through the remainder of the year before it inflects back? How do you think about that dynamic?

克拉克，當我們時不時地從 2.47% 的利潤率中尋找某種程度的利潤率時，我想，國債和掉期交易的利潤率接近 3.20%。我想其中一件大事就是在這里和那裡發生的事情。你知道什麼時候——根據你現在看到的情況，利潤率何時會觸底，可能在哪裡？然後更具體地說，它什麼時候開始向上彎曲到？我知道國債開始——國債和掉期，這更像是 2023 年底和 2024 年。但我們今年會出現利潤率拐點嗎？還是我們會在今年餘下的時間裡繼續流血一點，然後才會反彈？你如何看待這種動態？

Yes. Good question, Scott. So we would have originally thought Q1 was the low point. We think that's now Q2, and then we'll start to see some stabilization and uptick in the back half of the year. And again, part of that is the -- really, the swap book starts to roll off. We begin to see some treasuries, although they're fairly light in 2023 and yes.

是的。好問題，斯科特。所以我們最初會認為 Q1 是低點。我們認為現在是第二季度，然後我們將在今年下半年開始看到一些穩定和上升。再一次，其中一部分是——真的，交換書開始滾動。我們開始看到一些國庫券，儘管它們在 2023 年相當輕，是的。

Okay. That's perfect. And then, Chris, maybe just a thought on investment banking rebound in the second half. I mean, what does that kind of look like in your mind, how powerful could it be? It's been such an odd environment. You got the VIX at a level where historically, there'd be a lot of activity now. But it certainly feels very uncertain, and I think we've all been sort of surprised by overall lack of activity. So when you sort of look out over the remaining several months of the year, what's sort of your best guess as to how a regard might play out?

好的。那很完美。然後，克里斯，也許只是對下半年投資銀行業反彈的想法。我的意思是，那種在你心目中是什麼樣子的，它能有多大的威力？這是一個如此奇怪的環境。您將 VIX 的水平從歷史上看，現在會有很多活動。但這確實讓人感覺非常不確定，而且我認為我們都對整體缺乏活動感到驚訝。因此，當您審視一年中剩下的幾個月時，您對某方面可能會如何發揮作用的最佳猜測是什麼？

I think you have to go through sort of the price discovery. And I think there's a bid and ask basically on equities. As you can see, there's some deals getting priced. You can see there's some high yield that's getting done. But I think, Scott, what it's going to take is for kind of buyers and sellers to readjust their expectations. And I think my experience is that process takes a while. But eventually, people adapt to kind of what the new normal is. And as I said in my comments, I actually think it will come back sometime in the second half. Our pipelines are down about 10% from last year, which in the grand scheme of things, if you think about this time last year is not bad.

我認為你必須經歷某種價格發現。而且我認為基本上是在股票上存在出價和要價。如您所見，有些交易正在定價。你可以看到已經完成了一些高收益。但我認為，斯科特，買家和賣家需要重新調整他們的期望。我認為我的經驗是這個過程需要一段時間。但最終，人們會適應新常態。正如我在評論中所說，我實際上認為它會在下半年的某個時候回歸。我們的管道比去年下降了大約 10%，從總體上看，如果你考慮一下去年這個時候還不錯。

So the pipelines are good. We actually had a nice quarter in terms of advisory, but a lot of our clients, frankly, are sitting on the sidelines. There are deals to be done. And frankly, we're advising many of our clients that now is not the perfect time either to enter into the financing market or to complete a transaction. But it will come back and the pipeline is building. Some deals will just go away, but it will come back.

所以管道很好。實際上，我們在諮詢方面有一個不錯的季度，但坦率地說，我們的很多客戶都在觀望。有交易要做。坦率地說，我們建議我們的許多客戶，現在不是進入融資市場或完成交易的最佳時機。但它會回來，管道正在建設中。有些交易會消失，但它會回來。

Our next question is from John Pancari with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

Just a couple of questions regarding the NII outlook for the year. Can you just share with us your thought of the noninterest-bearing deposit mix shift? How you view that progressing? And then also on the progression for the second quarter, just regarding Scott's question on the margin, you mentioned that you see a pullback again in the second quarter and then inflection. Can you maybe help us size up that amount of margin compression incrementally in the second quarter?

關於今年 NII 展望的幾個問題。您能否與我們分享一下您對無息存款結構轉變的看法？您如何看待這一進展？然後還有關於第二季度的進展，關於斯科特的邊緣問題，你提到你在第二季度再次看到回調然後拐點。您能否幫助我們在第二季度逐步擴大利潤率壓縮的規模？

Sure. From noninterest-bearing, we've seen that come down 29% to 26%, 27%, we would think that, that would make its way to the mid-20s. But I will say there's 1 caveat in there, and that is we have been using the -- I believe we've talked about this, but we've been using what we refer to as a hybrid account with many of our commercial clients where we're taking noninterest-bearing deposits and some of their excess balances and keeping them together in 1 interest-bearing account.

當然。從不計息的角度來看，我們已經看到下降了 29% 到 26%、27%，我們認為這將進入 20 年代中期。但我會說那裡有一個警告，那就是我們一直在使用 - 我相信我們已經討論過這個，但我們一直在使用我們稱之為混合賬戶的許多商業客戶我們將不計息存款和它們的一些超額餘額放在一個計息賬戶中。

So we've moved balances out of noninterest-bearing into those accounts. They would reflect on the balance sheet as a decline in noninterest-bearing, but it allows us to maintain those balances in a technically interest-bearing account, but at very attractive rates. So again, we can break that out over time. But I would say the noninterest-bearing decline probably isn't quite as stark as it would appear on its face.

因此，我們已將無息賬戶中的餘額轉移到這些賬戶中。它們會在資產負債表上反映為無息賬戶的減少，但它使我們能夠在技術上計息賬戶中維持這些餘額，但利率非常有吸引力。因此，我們可以隨著時間的推移再次打破它。但我要說的是，不計息的下降可能並不像表面上看起來那麼明顯。

As it relates to net interest income, second quarter, we'd expect that to be down kind of 4% to 5% in Q2 with NIM. NIM coming down in part because we're carrying a little bit excess liquidity post the early March period, and we would see that come down we think maybe another 6 to 8 basis points. And then as I responded to and Scott's question, kind of stabilize and start to come back up in the second half of the year.

由於與第二季度的淨利息收入相關，我們預計第二季度 NIM 將下降 4% 至 5%。 NIM 下降的部分原因是我們在 3 月初之後流動性有點過剩，我們會看到它下降，我們認為可能還會下降 6 到 8 個基點。然後當我回答和斯科特的問題時，在今年下半年穩定下來並開始回升。

Got it. Okay. All right. That's helpful. And you care to venture a projection in terms of the magnitude of the inflection in the back half of the next?

知道了。好的。好的。這很有幫助。你願意冒險預測下一個後半部分的拐點幅度嗎？

Not at the moment. We just -- we haven't provided that yet, but you did -- you would see our -- obviously, our guide for the year on NIM being down a little, but that's obviously going to require us to be stronger in the second half and we expect to see that.

現在不行。我們只是 - 我們還沒有提供，但你做了 - 你會看到我們 - 顯然，我們對 NIM 的年度指南略有下降，但這顯然需要我們在第二個中變得更強大一半，我們希望看到這一點。

Got you. Okay. And then just separately on regulation. I want to see if you can maybe provide some comments around how you're thinking about the most likely areas of regulation where you expect some measures out of the regulators or around inclusion of AOCI, potentially TLAC, FDIC, stress capital buffer risk. Maybe if you could just comment on that Chris, I'm interested in your comments on that as well.

明白了好的。然後單獨進行監管。我想看看你是否可以就你如何思考最有可能的監管領域提供一些評論，你希望監管機構採取一些措施，或者圍繞納入 AOCI，可能是 TLAC，FDIC，強調資本緩衝風險。或許你可以就 Chris 發表評論，我也對你的評論感興趣。

I'd be happy to comment on that. To the premise of your question, there's no question that we'll be experiencing. We're going to have to carry more capital, and there'll be more regulation. I personally think TLAC is going to be part of that or some debt security that looks like TLAC. I also think that we'll probably have to carry more capital. We, as you can imagine, have run all kinds of scenarios.

我很樂意對此發表評論。在你提出問題的前提下，毫無疑問我們會遇到。我們將不得不攜帶更多的資本，並且會有更多的監管。我個人認為 TLAC 將成為其中的一部分或一些看起來像 TLAC 的債務證券。我還認為我們可能需要攜帶更多資金。我們，如你所想，跑過各種場景。

We feel comfortable that based on the burn down of our AOCI, based on the earnings power of the company, and based on timing, i.e., there would be some comment period and some phase-in period. We feel like no matter under all the scenarios that we've looked at we feel confident that Key can be in a position to meet both the regulatory and the capital requirements going forward.

我們感到很舒服，基於我們 AOCI 的燒毀，基於公司的盈利能力，以及基於時間，即會有一些評論期和一些階段性的階段。我們覺得，無論在我們所研究的所有情況下，我們都相信 Key 能夠滿足未來的監管和資本要求。

Next, we go to Erika Najarian with UBS.

接下來，我們與瑞銀一起去 Erika Najarian。

Yes. If I could ask the NII protection question another way. Clark, the loan beta of your commercial portfolio was something like 52% in the second half of 2022 and about 65% this quarter. As we think about the protection for down short rates, and I think a lot of investors are expecting down short rates in 2023. Should we interpret your protection as a lower sensitivity to each 25 basis points of cuts that we've seen to the upside?

是的。如果我可以換一種方式問 NII 保護問題。克拉克，你的商業投資組合的貸款貝塔值在 2022 年下半年約為 52%，本季度約為 65%。當我們考慮對短期利率下調的保護時，我認為很多投資者都預計 2023 年短期利率會下降。我們是否應該將您的保護解釋為對我們已經看到的每 25 個基點的下調敏感性較低？ ？

Sorry, can you ask that one more time, Erika. I just want to make sure I'm understanding the question.

抱歉，Erika，你能再問一次嗎？我只是想確保我理解這個問題。

Yes. Yes. So I wanted to understand Slide 11 in a different way, right? So the protection on your commercial portfolio and locking in the upside. So we saw the sensitivity to higher short rates in terms of the carry through to your yield at about the low 50s in the second half of last year and in the mid-60s this quarter, right? The way investors are interpreting protection to the downside is a lower sensitivity as the Fed cuts, right? And so should we expect the key commercial yields have a lower sensitivity to cut on the way down than it did to increases in rates on the way up?

是的。是的。所以我想以不同的方式理解幻燈片 11，對嗎？因此，保護您的商業投資組合併鎖定上漲空間。因此，我們看到了去年下半年和本季度 60 年代中期的收益率在 50 年代中期左右的結轉率對更高短期利率的敏感性，對嗎？投資者將保護措施解釋為下行的方式是隨著美聯儲削減而降低敏感性，對嗎？那麼我們是否應該期望關鍵商業收益率在下降過程中的敏感性低於在上升過程中對利率上升的敏感性？

I mean, yes, if you think about the incorporation of the swaps, right? So the swaps are there for exactly that purpose, and they would reduce the sensitivity on the way down, that's the intent of those instruments.

我的意思是，是的，如果你考慮納入掉期，對嗎？因此，交換正是出於這個目的，它們會降低下降過程中的敏感性，這就是這些工具的目的。

Okay. And what you're showing us on Slide 11 is essentially the assumption that your current swap book as it rolls off, gets replaced with a higher received fixed rate?

好的。您在幻燈片 11 上向我們展示的實質上是假設您當前的掉期交易簿在推出時會被更高的接收固定利率所取代？

Yes, 2 components, right? In '23, I think our view, the forward curve, I have not seen a view yet where rates come down below where swap rates would be. So we would -- we're going to let that roll through our natural loan rates and yields flow through in '23.

是的，2 個組件，對嗎？在 23 年，我認為我們的觀點是遠期曲線，我還沒有看到利率低於掉期利率的觀點。所以我們會 - 我們將讓它通過我們的自然貸款利率和收益率在 23 年流過。

In '24, we've effectively replaced the swap book with forward starters at a higher rate, $3.40 on average and floor spreads with a kick in rate of 3.40%. So if rates were to stay higher, we'll get the value on the floor spreads, we'll carry the negative carry on the forward starters. If the forward curve plays out, both of those will be in the money at some point in '24.

在 24 年，我們有效地用更高利率的遠期啟動器取代了掉期交易簿，平均 3.40 美元，下限利差為 3.40%。因此，如果利率保持較高水平，我們將獲得底價差的價值，我們將對前瞻性首發進行負結轉。如果遠期曲線發揮作用，那麼這兩者都將在 24 年的某個時候賺錢。

Got it. And I'm sorry to just put this all together in the third question. But as investors are thinking about whether bank stocks are truly cheap, I think they're thinking about '24 EPS as a trough. So as I think about your commercial yield today, right? There are essentially sort of "headwinds" right? So the first would be the lower received rate -- received fixed rate on your notional. And the second would be -- on the other side of that, right, the yield will be better protected as the Fed cuts. So am I thinking about sort of the message on downside NII protection the right way as it relates to your commercial book?

知道了。很抱歉將所有這些放在第三個問題中。但當投資者考慮銀行股是否真的便宜時，我認為他們正在考慮將 24 年每股收益視為低谷。所以當我想到你今天的商業收益時，對嗎？基本上有某種“逆風”吧？因此，第一個是較低的接收率——按您的名義接收固定利率。第二個是——另一方面，隨著美聯儲降息，收益率將得到更好的保護。那麼，我是否正在考慮與您的商業書籍相關的關於下行 NII 保護的信息？

Yes. I think you said that well.

是的。我覺得你說得好。

And next, we move to Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

接下來，我們將與 Jefferies 一起轉向 Ken Usdin。

Just a follow-up on the swaps. So maybe just to ask it a different way. So in the back end number from the 10-K, of the reported impact from swaps in the fourth quarter was minus $162 million. Do you have the number of what that negative impact was in the first quarter? And can you help us understand what it will look like when we see the new disclosure for the roll forward next 4 quarters?

只是掉期的後續行動。所以也許只是以不同的方式提出問題。因此，在 10-K 的後端數字中，報告的第四季度掉期影響為負 1.62 億美元。您知道第一季度的負面影響有多少嗎？當我們看到未來 4 個季度前滾的新披露時，您能幫助我們了解它會是什麼樣子嗎？

You're talking just swaps specifically, Ken?

你說的只是具體的交換，肯？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, $215 million in the first quarter.

是的，第一季度為 2.15 億美元。

Okay. That's $215 million. And then so last quarter's next 4 quarters roll forward from the K was [$665 million] after tax. Do you have an idea of what the new roll forward will be when we see that in the 10-Q?

好的。那是 2.15 億美元。然後上個季度的下一個 4 個季度從 K 向前滾動是 [6.65 億美元] 稅後。當我們在 10-Q 中看到新的前滾時，您是否知道新的前滾是什麼？

Not at this point, but we can follow up and let you know that.

目前還沒有，但我們可以跟進並讓您知道。

Okay. And then the last question is you mentioned the $750 million and the $1 billion and that you're not going to be replacing now. Can you maybe just flush that out a little bit in terms of like the any change to that strategy around protection and how you'll be replacing going forward to get that incremental forward benefit from the roll off versus what you're putting on?

好的。然後最後一個問題是你提到了 7.5 億美元和 10 億美元，你現在不會更換。你能否就圍繞保護的策略進行任何更改以及你將如何替換前進以從滾降與你正在投入的內容中獲得增量的前瞻性好處來稍微沖洗一下？

Yes. So I'll keep trying. I'm worried, I'm not being super clear. So the $6.2 billion of received fixed swaps in '23 are going to mature. $1.7 billion of that matured in the first quarter. We're not planning to replace those to protect the loan book in year from a receive fix swap standpoint. There's another $7.5 billion that roll out through 2024, and we've taken steps to effectively replace that, not all of it exactly. It's we're in the $7 billion range, half of which is forward start received fix with an average rate of 3.40%.

是的。所以我會繼續努力。我很擔心，我不是很清楚。因此，23 年收到的 62 億美元固定掉期將到期。其中 17 億美元在第一季度到期。從接收固定掉期的角度來看，我們不打算更換那些以保護年內的貸款賬簿。到 2024 年還有 75 億美元將推出，我們已經採取措施有效地取代它，而不是全部。我們處於 70 億美元的範圍內，其中一半是前瞻性的，平均利率為 3.40%。

So just think about that as replacing the existing '24 rate and now bringing that up to 3.40% and then the other half with floor spreads that have an attachment point at also roughly 3.40% just by coincidence. So that really is the protection against rates coming down, which the forward curve would project at this point, and it would sort of lock that $7 billion or so at a 3.40% yield or higher as those other swaps roll off.

因此，只需將其視為取代現有的 24 年利率，現在將其提高到 3.40%，然後將另一半的底價差巧合地固定在 3.40% 左右。因此，這確實是防止利率下降的保護措施，遠期曲線此時將預測，並且隨著其他掉期的減少，它將以 3.40% 或更高的收益率鎖定這 70 億美元左右。

Got it. And I know that was asked so I apologize for re-asking..

知道了。我知道這是被問到的，所以我為重新詢問而道歉。

That's okay. I think maybe not doing it as clearly as possible. So I appreciate the follow-up.

沒關係。我想也許沒有做得盡可能清楚。所以我很欣賞後續行動。

And next, we go to a question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來，我們將回答 Mike Mayo 與 Wells Fargo Securities 的問題。

This is a tough quarter for you guys. I guess, relative to expectations, you guys missed on NII, NIM, fees, provisions and expenses. You guided NII lower down 1% to 3% this year when before it was up 1% to 4%. You said NIM will go down next quarter. And so that's just -- given all those headwinds and pressures and maybe I'm misstating that and correct me if I did. Are you ratcheting down expenses more? Are you becoming more cautious? Or are you just kind of have to take the stomach punch of the higher funding and go on with it.

這對你們來說是一個艱難的季度。我想，相對於預期，你們錯過了 NII、NIM、費用、規定和開支。你指導 NII 今年下跌 1% 至 3%，而之前它上漲 1% 至 4%。你說 NIM 下個季度會下降。所以這只是——考慮到所有這些逆風和壓力，也許我說錯了，如果我說錯了，請糾正我。你是否正在進一步削減開支？你變得更謹慎了嗎？或者你只是有點需要接受更高資金的打擊並繼續下去。

And part of that, you didn't change your loan guidance, but it doesn't look like you're being more cautious there. So just I guess, I'm trying to say is -- is this as bad as it looks? Or are there some silver linings out of this? Or I mean with your resiliency, maybe you can gain share, but that's not showing up in your guidance.

其中一部分，你沒有改變你的貸款指導，但看起來你在那裡並不更加謹慎。所以我想，我想說的是——這真的像看起來那麼糟糕嗎？還是有一些一線希望？或者我的意思是，憑藉你的韌性，也許你可以獲得份額，但這並沒有出現在你的指導中。

Yes. So thank you for the question. Let me just kind of broadly talk about the quarter. Mike, there's no question it was a challenging quarter for us, but we continue to do the things that we need to do to build the franchise. And so -- what are those things? You mentioned expenses. We put a hiring freeze in place in November, and we took out $200 million or 4% of our expense base just in the quarter we just completed. So that's 1 of the things we've done.

是的。謝謝你的提問。讓我大致談談這個季度。邁克，毫無疑問，這對我們來說是一個充滿挑戰的季度，但我們繼續做我們需要做的事情來建立特許經營權。那麼——那些東西是什麼？你提到了費用。我們在 11 月凍結了招聘，僅在我們剛剛完成的那個季度就拿出了 2 億美元或我們支出基數的 4%。這就是我們所做的事情之一。

We've talked a lot today about kind of how we're managing our balance sheet. We have taken significant actions and we have the luxury of taking the actions because they're short duration, both on our swaps and on our investments to put us in a position where we can benefit from the rise in interest rates. So we've done that.

我們今天就如何管理資產負債表談了很多。我們已經採取了重大行動，而且我們有幸採取這些行動，因為它們的持續時間很短，無論是在我們的掉期交易還是在我們的投資上，都使我們處於可以從利率上升中受益的位置。所以我們已經做到了。

And then the other thing we continue to do, as you know, is we continue to strategically invest in our business and focus on targeted scale. So my perspective is, yes, this is a challenging quarter. Yes, we have to get through this NII drag, but we have a clear path to do so. And that's what we as a team are in the business of focusing on.

然後我們繼續做的另一件事，如你所知，我們繼續對我們的業務進行戰略投資，並專注於目標規模。所以我的觀點是，是的，這是一個充滿挑戰的季度。是的，我們必須克服這個 NII 阻力，但我們有一條清晰的道路可以做到這一點。這就是我們作為一個團隊所關注的業務。

And Mike, I'd just add 2 things. On the expenses, they're up because of the charge, $64 million. If you took that out, we'd be in good shape. And I think if you annualize that number, we're right in line with our guidance of relatively stable year-over-year. And again, that's in the face of some inflationary headwinds. I think on the provision, you heard in to our charge-offs. We didn't change our guidance, which may beg the question of why did you build your provision? And frankly, we're doing what we think CECL was intended to do, which was when macroeconomic conditions change, you build the reserve. So we're applying that standard, and that would be the reconciliation between 2 quarters of build and no change in the charge-off guidance.

邁克，我只想添加兩件事。在費用方面，由於收費，他們增加了 6400 萬美元。如果你把它拿出來，我們的狀態就會很好。而且我認為，如果你將這個數字年化，我們就符合我們相對穩定的同比指導。再一次，這是面對一些通貨膨脹的逆風。我認為關於條款，你聽說過我們的費用。我們沒有改變我們的指南，這可能會引出一個問題，即你為什麼要建立你的規定？坦率地說，我們正在做我們認為 CECL 打算做的事情，那就是當宏觀經濟條件發生變化時，你會建立儲備。因此，我們正在應用該標準，這將是兩個季度構建與沖銷指南沒有變化之間的對賬。

Given that extra caution, you kept your loan growth the same at 6% to 9%. So I'm trying to reconcile you are more caution with your provisions with no change in your loan guidance whereas others have brought down their loan guidance that they tightened things up.

鑑於格外謹慎，您將貸款增長率保持在 6% 至 9%。所以我試圖調和你對你的規定更加謹慎，你的貸款指導沒有變化，而其他人已經降低了他們的貸款指導，他們收緊了事情。

Yes, Mike. Our -- we have basically -- we are at the low end of our guidance for the year already. So what we're going to be doing for the balance of the year is we're going to be recycling capital. And to your point, there's no question that the cost of raw material has gone up significantly. We're certainly not going to change our lending standards. But in terms of pricing, we will make those adjustments. We're fortunate that we have a bunch of relationships that pay us really well, and we're in a position to serve those relationships. But as you and I have talked before, lending on a stand-alone business that's hard to return your cost of capital. So you can imagine when your cost of capital goes up, that the pricing and the other things that you're doing for those customers, frankly, will have to be even greater.

是的，邁克。我們 - 我們基本上 - 我們已經處於今年指導的低端。因此，我們將在今年餘下時間做的是回收資本。就您的觀點而言，毫無疑問，原材料成本已大幅上漲。我們當然不會改變我們的貸款標準。但在定價方面，我們會做出這些調整。我們很幸運，我們有很多能給我們帶來豐厚回報的關係，而且我們有能力為這些關係服務。但正如您和我之前所說，向難以收回資本成本的獨立業務提供貸款。所以你可以想像，當你的資本成本上升時，坦率地說，你為這些客戶所做的定價和其他事情將不得不更高。

Yes. So just to -- sorry, Mike. Just to be super clear, the 6% to 9% year-over-year loan growth really was resident at the end of 2022. So it really just reflects the growth that occurred in 2022, just to make that abundantly clear.

是的。所以只是——對不起，邁克。非常明確地說，6% 到 9% 的貸款同比增長確實是在 2022 年底實現的。所以它真的只是反映了 2022 年發生的增長，只是為了非常清楚地說明這一點。

And so one more follow-up. It seems like the capital markets is pricing for risk more than the lending markets. But when you have that conversation with your commercial customers and say, "Hey, we're going to pass on this higher cost of raw materials." Are you seeing any additional pricing power in lending markets? I mean, it just seems like loan yields should be going up more than they've already have done.

所以還有一個後續行動。似乎資本市場對風險的定價要高於借貸市場。但是，當您與您的商業客戶進行對話並說：“嘿，我們將轉嫁原材料的這種更高成本。”您是否看到貸款市場有任何額外的定價權？我的意思是，看起來貸款收益率的上升幅度應該超過他們已經完成的幅度。

Yes. And they never go up as much as they should because, frankly, there's too much excess capacity in the banking market. But no, they haven't moved. And that's where it really pays to have a wholesome relationship like where we can drive a bunch of other revenue, but there hasn't been the adjustment yet that there should be based on the arbitrage between the capital markets and the bank market.

是的。而且它們從未像應有的那樣上漲，因為坦率地說，銀行市場的產能過剩太多。但是不，他們沒有動。這就是建立健康關係真正值得的地方，比如我們可以帶來大量其他收入，但還沒有做出調整，認為應該基於資本市場和銀行市場之間的套利。

I guess I must sneak one last one in. If that's the case then, I mean, if the cost of raw materials are going up and you can't get the loan yields due to higher, maybe just delever a little bit and just not as much growth, but have less risk? Or I mean, how do you view that trade-off? Because just...

我想我必須把最後一個偷偷放進去。如果是這樣的話，我的意思是，如果原材料成本上漲，並且由於更高而你無法獲得貸款收益率，也許只是稍微去槓桿化而不是增長一樣多，但風險更小？或者我的意思是，您如何看待這種權衡？因為只是...

I think over time, that's what you're going to see, right? We'll be using the capital markets as they open up to actually place paper for people. But in terms of putting new debt on our balance sheet, we're not going to do it unless we have a complete relationship and we can drive a whole bunch of revenue. And that in itself will be limiting.

我想隨著時間的推移，這就是你會看到的，對吧？我們將利用開放的資本市場為人們實際投放紙張。但就在我們的資產負債表上增加新債務而言，除非我們擁有完整的關係並且我們可以帶來一大堆收入，否則我們不會這樣做。而這本身就是限制性的。

And our next question is from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

I wanted to follow up on the cost-cutting efforts that are underway to counter inflation. Just given the events of the past few weeks, how does that change? What do you think you need do on the investments, right? So as I think about deposit competition accelerating, are there any investments you think you need to make on either the technology or the product side in order to retain and grow deposits? And how much of that is embedded in your expense guide?

我想跟進為對抗通貨膨脹而進行的削減成本的努力。就過去幾週發生的事件而言，情況有何變化？您認為您需要在投資上做什麼，對嗎？因此，當我考慮存款競爭加速時，您認為您是否需要在技術或產品方面進行任何投資以保留和增加存款？其中有多少包含在您的費用指南中？

Yes. Thanks, Manan. So right question. The good news for us is we undertook the expense cuts, so we could make those investments, and we've got both on the consumer and commercial side, a focus on deposit and customer acquisition technology, whether it's digital capabilities in consumer, things like embedded banking, which we've talked about before or other payments capabilities on the commercial side. So that cost cutting was in part to make room for exactly those types of investments.

是的。謝謝，馬南。所以正確的問題。對我們來說，好消息是我們削減了開支，所以我們可以進行這些投資，而且我們在消費者和商業方面都有，專注於存款和客戶獲取技術，無論是消費者的數字能力，比如我們之前討論過的嵌入式銀行業務或商業方面的其他支付功能。因此，削減成本部分是為了為這些類型的投資騰出空間。

But is there anything additional you need to do given the events of the past few weeks?

但是，鑑於過去幾週發生的事件，您還有什麼需要做的嗎？

I mean we'll assess that as we go forward. I think we feel well prepared to handle the deposit challenges in front of the market right now, and I think our numbers have shown that. I think more than anything, we're probably likely to be more offensive on the deposit side than we've been to date, and we feel well armed to do that.

我的意思是我們會在前進的過程中對此進行評估。我認為我們已經做好充分準備，可以立即應對市場面臨的存款挑戰，我認為我們的數字已經表明了這一點。我認為最重要的是，我們可能會比迄今為止在存款方面更具攻擊性，我們覺得這樣做是有充分準備的。

Got it. Great. And then just on securities. I appreciate the detail on the AOCI accretion over time. I wanted to ask how do you think about the future mix and duration of the securities book just given what we've seen in the past few weeks? And just given the potential for higher regulation, would you skew the mix of your securities more shorter dated, more towards treasuries. Just want to get a sense of how you're thinking about that.

知道了。偉大的。然後就是證券。我很欣賞 AOCI 隨著時間的推移而增加的細節。我想問一下，鑑於我們過去幾週所看到的情況，您如何看待證券賬簿的未來組合和持續時間？考慮到監管力度加大的可能性，您是否會偏向短期證券組合，更多地傾向於國債。只是想了解一下您是如何考慮的。

Yes. It's a good question, hard to answer in a vacuum, but my sense would be you'll see higher quality portfolios, although ours is pretty high quality today, and you'll probably see shorter duration or more floaters. So it will be interesting to see if that's the way it shakes out. The broader impacts of bank security portfolios moving in that direction and how that might impact the market more broadly.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，很難在真空中回答，但我的感覺是你會看到更高質量的投資組合，儘管我們今天的質量相當高，而且你可能會看到更短的持續時間或更多的浮動資產。因此，看看它是否會以這種方式擺脫困境將會很有趣。銀行證券投資組合朝著這個方向發展的更廣泛影響，以及這可能如何更廣泛地影響市場。

And next, we have a question from Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

接下來，摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos 提出了一個問題。

So first, on the deposit side. So your uninsured deposits are fairly high, but it does not appear that you saw a large degree of outflows, right, that many of your peers saw in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank. Could you comment on that were there notable outflows or because of the operating nature of these accounts, which you called out, Chris, was that enough of a factor where you just didn't see what many peers saw?

首先，在存款方面。所以你的未保險存款相當高，但看起來你並沒有看到大量的資金外流，對吧，你的許多同行在矽谷銀行事件後看到的那樣。你能否評論一下是否存在顯著的資金外流，或者由於這些賬戶的運營性質，你所說的，克里斯，這是否足以讓你只是沒有看到許多同行看到的因素？

Yes. Just to be clear, 66% of our deposits are either uninsured -- either insured or collateralized. So that's point one. But I don't know -- I can't speak to other people's book. We -- like everyone, we saw some deposits move out, particularly in places like high net worth individuals. We saw some in the smaller end where kind of small business and business banking, where basically the deposit is the business and the person are sort of synonymous. We saw a couple larger excess deposits move. But in general, the reason we've enjoyed such stickiness of the deposit is kind of the comments that I made earlier, these are operating accounts or businesses, and these are businesses that have been clients of Key for a long time. And frankly, there wasn't even a lot of angst. I mean we obviously did a good job of reaching out to all of our customers, as we always do. But I was very pleased with the stickiness of the deposit in the core deposit base.

是的。需要明確的是，我們 66% 的存款要么沒有保險，要么有保險，要么有抵押。所以這是第一點。但我不知道——我不能對著別人的書說話。我們 - 像每個人一樣，我們看到一些存款轉移出去，特別是在高淨值人士等地方。我們在較小的一端看到了一些小企業和商業銀行業務，基本上存款就是企業，人是同義詞。我們看到一些較大的超額存款移動。但總的來說，我們享受這種存款粘性的原因是我之前發表的評論，這些是運營賬戶或業務，這些業務長期以來一直是 Key 的客戶。坦率地說，甚至沒有太多的焦慮。我的意思是，我們顯然在接觸所有客戶方面做得很好，一如既往。但我對核心存款基礎中存款的粘性感到非常滿意。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, Chris, on the potential for new regulation, and you said you're in a good position to organically build capital, right, in anticipation of new regulations potentially coming. Do you assume that you need to suspend buybacks for an extended period until we see new regulation in order to build that capital?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，克里斯，關於新監管的潛力，你說你處於有機積累資本的有利位置，對，因為預計可能會出台新監管。你是否認為你需要暫停回購一段較長的時間，直到我們看到新的監管以建立資本？

Yes. I don't really plan -- we don't plan on executing any buybacks until there's clarity as to what the capital framework is going forward. So I don't anticipate that we'll be doing any share repurchases until there's clarity.

是的。我真的沒有計劃——在明確資本框架的未來之前，我們不打算執行任何回購。因此，在情況明朗之前，我預計我們不會進行任何股票回購。

Got it. Okay. And just one final one in terms of you responding to John's -- I think, Cary's earlier question. This hybrid account for commercial customers, which is paying interest reads noninterest-bearing, but you're paying some interest. What was the balance in that account? And how much are you paying?

知道了。好的。最後一個關於你回應 John 的問題——我想是 Cary 之前的問題。這個支付利息的商業客戶混合賬戶讀起來是不計息的，但你支付了一些利息。那個賬戶的餘額是多少？你付了多少錢？

Yes. We'll have to follow up. I don't have that specific number in front of me. But we'll follow up with you, Steve.

是的。我們必須跟進。我面前沒有那個具體數字。但我們會跟進你，史蒂夫。

And next, we go to the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

接下來，我們將轉到 RBC 的杰拉德·卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy) 系列。

You touched on in your opening remarks about the third-party company that services commercial loans and it gives you an insight into pipelines of what may be coming down the pipe, so to speak. Can you share with us -- is that company -- the one that obviously you own, are they seeing an increase in activity from commercial mortgages that are in commercial mortgage-backed security products that they're the special service they're on. Has that started to pick up yet? And if not, what are they seeing?

你在開場白中提到了為商業貸款提供服務的第三方公司，它可以讓你深入了解可能正在發生的事情的管道，可以這麼說。你能和我們分享嗎——那家公司——顯然是你擁有的那家公司，他們是否看到商業抵押貸款活動的增加，這些商業抵押貸款支持的證券產品是他們所提供的特殊服務。已經開始好轉了嗎？如果沒有，他們看到了什麼？

Well, thanks for your question. So basically, you have servicing, then you have special servicing, where you're the named special servicer and then it goes into active special servicing. So think of active special servicing as being the workout agent for offers loans, whether they're CMBS or whatever. We have seen a huge surge in active servicing. And what was the #1 just a quarter ago, the biggest category was retail and the fastest growing was office. And what's happened is that's flipped. Now office is both the fastest growing and it's the largest by a significant factor. So we do have a pretty good insight. We have an insight by class.

嗯，謝謝你的問題。所以基本上，你有服務，然後你有特殊服務，你是指定的特殊服務者，然後它進入主動特殊服務。因此，將積極的特殊服務視為提供貸款的鍛煉代理，無論它們是 CMBS 還是其他。我們已經看到主動服務的激增。就在一個季度前，排名第一的是零售，增長最快的是辦公。發生的事情是翻轉了。現在寫字樓既是增長最快的，也是最大的一個重要因素。所以我們確實有一個很好的洞察力。我們有一個類的洞察力。

And just so you know, office is first and then retail is second. And then we also, of course, have a geographic breakdown because real estate is always geographic. So it does give us great insights and it is very dynamic and kind of the trends that we -- some time ago, we said we thought we'd see a lot of B and C class office buildings in central business districts. And although we, for our own book only have like $127 million of that exposure, we are seeing that play out and now office is the #1 category in active special servicing.

就像你知道的那樣，辦公室是第一位的，然後零售是第二位的。當然，我們也有地域細分，因為房地產總是地域性的。所以它確實給了我們很好的見解，而且它是非常有活力的，並且是我們的趨勢 - 前段時間，我們說我們認為我們會在中央商務區看到很多 B 級和 C 級辦公樓。儘管我們自己的書只有 1.27 億美元的風險敞口，但我們看到了這一點，現在辦公室是主動特殊服務的第一大類別。

And can you remind us -- I don't know if you have this number in active special servicing, I know the fees are greater than your regular servicing. By what factor? Is it a 2x higher fee, 4x higher fee?

你能不能提醒我們——我不知道你是否有這個號碼在進行特殊服務，我知道費用比你的常規服務要高。受什麼因素影響？費用是 2 倍還是 4 倍？

It's much higher than 4x because you go from getting really kind of just sort of a ticking fee, so you're actively working on it. So it is multiples of what the regular fees are as you go into special servicing. And when you look at our financials, you can see the bump in that line item.

它比 4 倍高得多，因為你從獲得真正的一種滴答費用開始，所以你正在積極努力。因此，當您進入特殊服務時，它是常規費用的倍數。當您查看我們的財務數據時，您會看到該項目的增長。

Which is in the commercial mortgage servicing fee, is that correct?

商業抵押貸款服務費中的哪一項是正確的？

Exactly. Correct.

確切地。正確的。

And then as a follow-up, Clark, you identified that the provision was hired to build up reserves due to CECL accounting. Can you share with us some of the metrics maybe I don't know if you're going to use the HPI and the housing price index or unemployment -- the unemployment rate, what were your assumptions in the fourth quarter? And how did they change in the first quarter to support the increase in the provision for loan losses.

然後作為後續行動，克拉克，你發現由於 CECL 會計，該條款被用來建立儲備金。您能否與我們分享一些指標，也許我不知道您是否要使用 HPI 和房價指數或失業率——失業率，您在第四季度的假設是什麼？以及它們在第一季度如何變化以支持貸款損失準備金的增加。

Yes. So let me just start with HPI because that's where you started. I think we may have talked about Moody's, which we use the Moody's consensus, they put out an HPI model in Q4, that was updated. They still produced their old one. We were comfortable with the old one. Now it's just the new one, which I would say is fairly draconian and sort of by -- their HPI, Clark, went from 4.6% in November to 8.8% as of February under the Moody's consensus. So that would be the Draconian part of Draconian Yes. So that's a big mover and largely unemployment went from 4.5% to 5%. So those would be sort of the 2 big impacted areas.

是的。所以讓我從 HPI 開始，因為那是你開始的地方。我想我們可能已經討論過穆迪，我們使用穆迪的共識，他們在第四季度推出了一個 HPI 模型，並進行了更新。他們仍然生產舊的。我們對舊的很滿意。現在它只是新的，我想說這是相當嚴厲的——他們的 HPI，克拉克，根據穆迪的共識，從 11 月的 4.6% 上升到 2 月的 8.8%。所以這將是 Draconian Yes 的 Draconian 部分。所以這是一個很大的推動力，大部分失業率從 4.5% 上升到 5%。所以那些將是兩個受影響的大領域。

And ladies and gentlemen, we will now be turning the conference for closing remarks back to the CEO, Chris Gorman.

女士們，先生們，我們現在將把閉幕詞的會議轉回給首席執行官克里斯戈爾曼。

Well, I want to thank everyone for joining us today. This concludes our first quarter call. If you have any questions, please, as always, reach out to Vern Patterson. Thank you so much. Have a good day. Goodbye.

好吧，我要感謝大家今天加入我們。我們的第一季度電話會議到此結束。如果您有任何問題，請一如既往地聯繫 Vern Patterson。太感謝了。祝你有美好的一天。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。