KeyCorp (KEY) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you, everyone, for standing by. Welcome to the 2024 First Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Mauney, KeyCorp's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

謝謝大家的支持。歡迎參加 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議轉交給 KeyCorp 投資者關係總監 Brian Mauney。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank you for joining KeyCorp's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. I'm here with Chris Gorman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Clark Khayat, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。感謝您參加 KeyCorp 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。我和我們的董事長兼執行長克里斯·戈爾曼一起來到這裡。和我們的財務長克拉克·卡亞特 (Clark Khayat)。

As usual, we will reference our earnings presentation slides, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the key.com website. In the back of the presentation, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosures and certain financial measures, including non-GAAP measures. This covers our earnings materials as well as remarks made on this morning's call. Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements and those statements speak only as of today, April 18, 2024, and will not be updated.

像往常一樣，我們將參考我們的收益簡報幻燈片，這些幻燈片可以在 key.com 網站的投資者關係部分找到。在簡報的後面，您將找到我們關於前瞻性揭露和某些財務指標（包括非公認會計原則指標）的聲明。這涵蓋了我們的收益資料以及今天早上電話會議上的言論。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述有重大差異，這些陳述僅代表截至今天（2024 年 4 月 18 日）的情況，並且不會更新。

With that, I will turn it over to Chris.

這樣，我就把它交給克里斯了。

Thank you, Brian. I'm on Slide 2. This morning, we reported earnings of $183 million or $0.20 per share which incorporates $0.02 per share impact from an additional FDIC special assessment charge this quarter. I would characterize our underlying results as solid. Revenue was essentially flat sequentially despite expected first quarter seasonality as Investment Banking reported its best first quarter result in our company's history. Fees were up 6% against both the prior quarter and prior year.

謝謝你，布萊恩。我在投影片 2 上。我認為我們的基本結果是可靠的。儘管預計第一季存在季節性因素，但由於投資銀行業務報告了我們公司歷史上最好的第一季業績，收入基本上持平。費用較上一季和去年同期上漲 6%。

Retail relationship households were up 2.5% year-over-year and commercial clients were up 6%. Customer deposits were up 2% year-over-year and essentially flat on a sequential basis. We continue to reduce our reliance on higher cost brokered CDs and wholesale borrowings. Expenses remained well controlled at $1.1 billion. Nonperforming assets and credit losses remained low. Additionally, we continued to build our credit reserves this quarter.

零售關係家庭年增 2.5%，商業客戶成長 6%。客戶存款年增 2%，較上季基本持平。我們持續減少對成本較高的經紀存款證和批發借款的依賴。費用仍然很好地控制在 11 億美元。不良資產和信貸損失保持在較低水準。此外，本季我們繼續建立信貸儲備。

Our capital ratios, including tangible common ratios were flat to improved across the board, despite the impact of higher interest rates on the fair value of our available-for-sale securities. We ended the quarter with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 10.3%, up 120 basis points from a year ago representing our fastest rate of organic capital build over a 12-month period since the industry began tracking this metric.

儘管利率上升對我們可供出售證券的公允價值產生了影響，但我們的資本比率（包括有形普通股比率）持平甚至全面改善。本季結束時，我們的普通股一級資本比率為10.3%，比一年前上升了120 個基點，這是自行業開始跟踪這一指標以來12 個月內我們有機資本建設速度最快的一次。

I'm also encouraged by the momentum we are seeing in areas where we have a differentiated advantage and have been investing. While only 1 quarter, I am encouraged by the strong broad-based results we saw in our capital markets business, across M&A, equity and debt capital markets and our commercial mortgage group. We also are seeing broad momentum across our targeted industry verticals, such as health care, power, industrials and renewables. While I would expect to see some pullback in fees in the second quarter, our pipelines are up from a year ago and from year-end levels. Market conditions are clearly starting to normalize.

我也對我們在擁有差異化優勢並一直在投資的領域看到的勢頭感到鼓舞。雖然只有第一個季度，但我們在資本市場業務、併購、股權和債務資本市場以及商業抵押貸款集團中看到的強勁、廣泛的業績令我感到鼓舞。我們也看到醫療保健、電力、工業和再生能源等目標垂直產業的廣泛勢頭。雖然我預計第二季的費用會有所回落，但我們的管道比一年前和年底的水平有所增加。市場狀況顯然開始正常化。

We also continue to raise significant capital on behalf of our clients. In the first quarter, we raised over $22 billion, holding 12% on our balance sheet and distributing the balance in the capital markets. To this end, last month, we announced a strategic forward flow origination partnership with Blackstone. This partnership will allow us to accelerate growth and manage credit concentration risk within our differentiated commercial platform. It is another example of how we are delivering best-in-class execution for our clients. This deal also further validates our distinctive underwrite-to-distribute model in that one of the largest private credit providers has recognized our platform for its ability to originate, soundly underwrite and service at volume with our high-quality clients.

我們也繼續代表客戶籌集大量資金。第一季度，我們籌集了超過 220 億美元，佔資產負債表的 12%，並將餘額分配到資本市場。為此，上個月，我們宣布與 Blackstone 建立策略性遠期流量發起合作關係。這種合作關係將使我們能夠在差異化的商業平台內加速成長並管理信貸集中風險。這是我們如何為客戶提供一流執行的另一個例子。這項交易也進一步驗證了我們獨特的承銷到分銷模式，因為最大的私人信貸提供者之一認可了我們的平台為我們的優質客戶提供優質客戶、健全承銷和服務的能力。

As markets evolve, we will continue to evaluate the potential for arrangements with other leading providers like this one, which allow us to offer a distinctive experience for our clients while concurrently managing our risk.

隨著市場的發展，我們將繼續評估與像這樣的其他領先供應商進行安排的潛力，這使我們能夠為客戶提供獨特的體驗，同時管理我們的風險。

Turning to Wealth Management. We recently launched Key Private Clients where we have the opportunity to penetrate a large growing Mass Affluent segment within our consumer base and with our commercial business owners. In this Mass Affluent segment, we enrolled another 6,000 households in this quarter and doubled production volumes compared to last year. This new business has added over $2 billion of household assets in just over a year. Overall, our assets under management have now surpassed $57 billion.

轉向財富管理。我們最近推出了關鍵私人客戶，我們有機會與我們的商業企業主一起滲透到我們的消費者群體中不斷增長的大眾富裕階層。在大眾富裕階層，本季我們又招募了 6,000 個家庭，產量比去年翻了一番。這項新業務在短短一年多的時間內就增加了超過 20 億美元的家庭資產。整體而言，我們管理的資產現已超過 570 億美元。

Before I turn it over to Clark, I want to touch briefly on credit quality. As I mentioned earlier, our nonperforming loans, net credit losses and delinquencies remain at low historical standards with credit losses below our full year 2024 and through-the-cycle targets. In the first quarter, we saw an uptick in criticized loans, which was driven by our belief which, by the way, we have held for some time now, that we will remain in a higher-for-longer environment as inflation remains sticky. With that in mind, this quarter, we performed a deep dive on over 90% of our clients that we believe would be most impacted under a higher-for-longer scenario, encompassing over 80% of our non-investment grade commercial exposures.

在將其交給克拉克之前，我想簡單談談信用品質。正如我之前提到的，我們的不良貸款、淨信用損失和拖欠率仍處於較低的歷史標準，信用損失低於我們的 2024 年全年和整個週期目標。在第一季度，我們看到受到批評的貸款增加，這是由於我們相信，順便說一句，我們已經堅持了一段時間了，即由於通貨膨脹仍然粘性，我們將長期處於較高的環境中。考慮到這一點，本季度，我們對超過 90% 的客戶進行了深入研究，我們認為這些客戶在長期較高的情景下受影響最大，涵蓋我們超過 80% 的非投資級商業風險敞口。

Performing this deep dive confirmed our view that there will be low loss content in these loans. Approximately 96% of accruing criticized commercial loans are current and 93% are current when also including non-accruing loans. Over 85% of our criticized real estate loans have recourse.

進行這項深入研究證實了我們的觀點，即這些貸款的損失含量較低。大約 96% 的應計受到批評的商業貸款是流動貸款，93% 的貸款是流動貸款（如果還包括非應計貸款）。我們所批評的房地產貸款中超過 85% 都有追索權。

I continue to feel very good about our ability to hit our net charge-off guidance of 30 to 40 basis points this year.

我仍然對我們今年達到 30 至 40 個基點的淨沖銷指導的能力感到非常滿意。

In summary, while it's still early in the year, we are on pace to deliver against the commitments that we detailed at the beginning of this year. Key is back to playing offense. And I remain excited about our future and our ability to generate sound profitable growth moving forward.

總之，雖然現在還為時過早，但我們正在努力兌現我們在今年年初詳細說明的承諾。關鍵是回到進攻。我對我們的未來以及我們未來實現穩健獲利成長的能力仍然感到興奮。

I also want to take a moment to thank our teammates for their continued commitment to our clients and our communities. I am very proud to share with you that for the 11th consecutive exam cycle, since the passage of the regulation in 1977, Key received an outstanding rating from the OCC for meeting or exceeding the terms of the Community Reinvestment Act. This achievement reflects our collective commitment to our purpose and an enormous amount of hard work and dedication from every teammate at Key.

我也想花點時間感謝我們的團隊成員對我們的客戶和社群的持續承諾。我非常自豪地與您分享，自 1977 年該法規通過以來，Key 連續第 11 個考試週期因滿足或超過《社區再投資法案》的條款而獲得 OCC 的出色評級。這項成就反映了我們對目標的集體承諾以及 Key 每位隊友的巨大辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

With that, I'll turn it over to Clark to provide more details on the results of the quarter. Clark?

這樣，我會將其轉交給克拉克，以提供有關本季業績的更多詳細資訊。克拉克？

Thanks, Chris, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. I'm now on Slide 4. For the first quarter, we reported earnings per share of $0.20, including $0.02 impact from the FDIC special assessment. This quarter's $29 million pretax assessment represented a 15% add-on to the charge we had taken in the fourth quarter relating to the bank failures last spring. As expected, our taxable equivalent net interest income declined 4.5% sequentially within the range of down 3% to 5% that we provided in January.

謝謝克里斯，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我現在看到的是幻燈片 4。本季的稅前評估為 2,900 萬美元，比我們第四季因去年春天銀行倒閉而收取的費用增加了 15%。如預期，我們的應稅等值淨利息收入環比下降了 4.5%，在我們 1 月提供的下降 3% 至 5% 的範圍內。

Noninterest income increased 6% compared to both the prior year end quarter, primarily driven by strong investment banking performance. Reported expenses were down and excluding selected items, expenses were up slightly linked quarter and essentially flat year-over-year at approximately $1.1 billion. Provision for credit losses of $101 million was roughly flat to the fourth quarter and included $81 million of net loan charge-offs and $20 million of credit reserve build.

與去年年底相比，非利息收入成長了 6%，這主要是由強勁的投資銀行業績推動的。報告費用有所下降，不包括某些項目，費用環比略有上升，比去年同期基本持平，約 11 億美元。信貸損失準備金為 1.01 億美元，與第四季度基本持平，其中包括 8,100 萬美元的淨貸款沖銷和 2,000 萬美元的信貸準備金建設。

Our common equity Tier 1 ratio increased to 10.3%, while tangible book value declined 1% sequentially, reflecting the impact of higher rates on AOCI this quarter.

我們的普通股一級資本比率增至 10.3%，而有形帳面價值則是環比下降 1%，反映了本季 AOCI 利率上升的影響。

Moving to the balance sheet on Slide 5. Average loans declined 2.6% sequentially to $111 billion and loans ended the quarter at about $110 billion, down approximately $2.7 billion from year-end. The decline reflects the expected follow-on impacts of intentional actions we took in 2023 to reduce low-return lending-only C&I relationships and the runoff of residential mortgages and student loans as they pay down and mature. Lower balances are also a function of lower client demand driven by the uptick in rates in the quarter and the return of capital markets activity, which moved some client assets to more attractive off-balance sheet structures.

轉到投影片 5 上的資產負債表。這一下降反映了我們在 2023 年採取的有意行動的預期後續影響，這些行動旨在減少低迴報的純貸款 C&I 關係以及住宅抵押貸款和學生貸款在償還和到期時的流失。餘額下降也是由於本季利率上升和資本市場活動回歸所推動的客戶需求下降，這將一些客戶資產轉移到更具吸引力的表外結構。

We also remain disciplined and intentional about what we're putting on our balance sheet. We're very active with clients and prospects and still expect new loan origination to come back throughout 2024.

我們對資產負債表上的內容也保持嚴格和有意識的態度。我們非常積極地與客戶和潛在客戶打交道，仍然預計新的貸款發放將在 2024 年全年恢復。

On Slide 6. Average deposits declined about 1.5% sequentially, in line with recent historical seasonal patterns. And within that decline, we reduced broker deposits by roughly $1 billion. Client deposits were up 2% year-over-year. Both total and interest-bearing cost of deposits rose by 14 basis points during the quarter, primarily reflecting repricing of existing CDs and money market deposits as they come up for maturity and some continued migration out of noninterest-bearing. When adjusted for the noninterest-bearing deposits in our hybrid commercial accounts, our percentage of noninterest-bearing to total deposits dropped from 25% to 24% linked quarter.

在投影片 6 上。在此期間，我們將經紀商存款減少了約 10 億美元。客戶存款較去年同期成長2%。本季存款總成本和計息成本均上升 14 個基點，主要反映了現有存款證和貨幣市場存款到期時的重新定價，以及部分存款繼續從無息存款中遷移出來。當混合商業帳戶中的無利息存款進行調整後，我們的無利息存款佔總存款的百分比從上一季的 25% 下降至 24%。

Our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta was just below 52% since the Fed began raising interest rates, up about 3 percentage points from last quarter. On the bottom left of the page, we split out for you our deposit mix by product type and for interest-bearing by business, including how much of our commercial book is indexed or managed to benchmark rates. We hope you'll find this information useful as you think through potential beta sensitivities.

自聯準會開始升息以來，我們的累計計息存款貝塔值略低於 52%，較上季上升約 3 個百分點。在頁面的左下角，我們按產品類型和按業務計息為您劃分了存款組合，包括我們的商業帳簿有多少被索引或管理為基準利率。我們希望您在考慮潛在的 Beta 敏感性時會發現此資訊很有用。

Moving to net interest income and margin on Slide 7. Taxable equivalent net interest income was $886 million, down 4.5% from the prior quarter. Approximately $40 million of benefit from fixed rate asset repricing, mostly from swaps and short-dated U.S. treasuries, was more than offset by lower loan volumes, higher deposit cost and deposit mix migration. Day count impact was about $7 million.

轉到投影片 7 的淨利息收入和利潤率。固定利率資產重新定價帶來的約 4,000 萬美元收益（主要來自掉期和短期美國國債）被貸款量下降、存款成本上升和存款組合遷移所抵銷。以天計算影響約 700 萬美元。

Net interest margin declined by 5 basis points to 2.02% driven by higher deposit costs, lower-than-expected loans and changes in funding mix. Both our net interest income and margin continue to reflect headwinds from prior balance sheet positioning. Our short-dated swaps in U.S. treasuries reduced net interest income by $309 million and our NIM by about 70 basis points this quarter. That said, we affirm our prior commitments that our NIM bottomed in 3Q '23 and that this first quarter of 2024 reflects the low point for net interest income.

由於存款成本上升、貸款低於預期以及融資結構變化，淨利差下降 5 個基點至 2.02%。我們的淨利息收入和利潤率繼續反映出先前資產負債表定位的不利因素。本季我們的美國公債短期互換減少了淨利息收入 3.09 億美元，淨利差減少了約 70 個基點。也就是說，我們重申先前的承諾，即我們的淨利差在 23 年第三季觸底，並且 2024 年第一季反映了淨利息收入的低點。

Turning to Slide 8. Noninterest income was $647 million, up 6% quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Compared to the prior year, the increase was primarily driven by investment banking fees, which grew 17% to $170 million, a record first quarter. Strong performance was broad-based across products and industries. Commercial mortgage servicing fees rose 22% year-over-year, reflecting growth in servicing, special servicing and active special servicing balances. At March 31, we serviced about $660 billion of assets on behalf of third-party clients.

轉向投影片 8。與前一年相比，這一成長主要是由投資銀行費用推動的，投資銀行費用增加了 17%，達到 1.7 億美元，創第一季創紀錄水平。強勁的業績遍及各個產品和產業。商業抵押貸款服務費年增 22%，反映了服務、特殊服務和主動特殊服務餘額的成長。截至 3 月 31 日，我們為第三方客戶提供了約 6,600 億美元的資產服務。

Finally, Trust and Investment Services grew by 6% year-over-year as assets under management grew 7% to $57 billion. We're seeing strong momentum in Key private clients as well as tailwinds from higher market levels. Conversely, on a year-over-year basis, corporate services income declined by 9% given elevated LIBOR to SOFR related transaction activity in the first quarter a year ago. And the 5% decline in cards and payment fees reflects slowing spend volumes and lower interchange rates in credit card and merchants.

最後，信託與投資服務年增 6%，管理資產成長 7%，達到 570 億美元。我們看到主要私人客戶的強勁勢頭以及來自更高市場水平的推動力。相反，由於去年第一季 LIBOR 與 SOFR 相關交易活動增加，企業服務收入較去年同期下降了 9%。卡和支付費用下降 5% 反映出信用卡和商家消費量放緩以及兌換率下降。

On Slide 9, total noninterest expense for the quarter was $1.1 billion and included $29 million related to the FDIC special assessment increase. Excluding selected items in all periods, expenses were flat compared to a year ago and up 1.5% from fourth quarter. Personnel expenses were flat year-over-year as a 7% decline in headcount offset impact from inflation in merit and higher incentive compensation associated with our strong fee revenue results and the impact of appreciation of our stock price associated with equity awards.

在投影片 9 中，本季非利息支出總額為 11 億美元，其中包括與 FDIC 特別評估增加相關的 2,900 萬美元。排除所有期間的選定項目，費用與去年同期持平，比第四季成長 1.5%。人員費用較去年持平，因為員工人數減少 7%，抵消了業績膨脹的影響，以及與我們強勁的費用收入業績相關的更高的激勵薪酬以及與股權獎勵相關的股價升值的影響。

Linked quarter, higher personnel costs also reflects seasonal benefits costs in addition to the factors just listed.

除了剛剛列出的因素之外，與季度相關的人員成本上升也反映了季節性福利成本。

Moving to Slide 10. Credit quality remained solid. Net charge-offs were $81 million or 29 basis points of average loans, below our target of 30 to 40 basis points for the full year 2024. Delinquencies increased just 2 basis points this quarter and nonperforming loans increased 15%, but remained low at 60 basis points at period end loans. As Chris mentioned, criticized loans increased and represented 6% of loans at quarter end. Roughly 2/3 of the increase came from our C&I portfolio with the rest primarily in commercial real estate. Our internal ratings are driven by primary repayment sources. As loans were moved to criticized, we reaffirmed our collateral coverage, reappraised properties, further engage with borrowers to understand operating pressures, if any, and analyze secondary payment sources on these loans.

轉到投影片 10。淨沖銷額為8,100 萬美元，相當於平均貸款的29 個基點，低於我們2024 年全年30 至40 個基點的目標。處於60 個基點的低點期末貸款的基點。正如 Chris 所提到的，受到批評的貸款增加，佔季末貸款的 6%。大約 2/3 的成長來自我們的工商業投資組合，其餘則主要來自商業房地產。我們的內部評級由主要還款來源驅動。隨著貸款轉為批評，我們重申了我們的抵押品覆蓋範圍，重新評估了財產，進一步與借款人接觸以了解營運壓力（如果有），並分析這些貸款的二次付款來源。

Based on that thorough review, we feel good about the loss content on these loans, and as Chris shared, remained comfortable with our prior loss guidance for 2024 of 30 to 40 basis points.

基於徹底的審查，我們對這些貸款的損失內容感到滿意，正如克里斯所說，我們對先前 2024 年 30 至 40 個基點的損失指導仍然感到滿意。

On Slide 11, given this was a fairly unique quarter in terms of the ins and outs, we provided you with a walk of how we derived a roughly $20 million build in our credit allowance this quarter. We added roughly $117 million to account for the quarter's credit migration, partially offset by a $98 million release to account for an improved macro outlook. Even with this quarter's proactive deep dive, our net upgrades to downgrades ratio across the entire commercial book improved this quarter as the velocity of downgrades have slowed.

在投影片 11 上，考慮到這是一個從細節來看相當獨特的季度，我們向您介紹了我們如何在本季度增加了大約 2000 萬美元的信用額度。我們增加了大約 1.17 億美元來應對本季的信貸遷移，但由於宏觀前景改善而釋放了 9,800 萬美元，部分抵消了這一影響。儘管本季度進行了積極的深入研究，但隨著降級速度放緩，我們整個商業帳簿的淨升級與降級比率在本季度有所改善。

As a result, our allowance for credit losses continue to build and represented 1.66% period-end loans at the end of March. When you analyze our levels of reserves by loan type, you'll find that we compare similarly or better versus our peers we feel particularly well reserved in our commercial real estate, including a 3% ACL against nonowner-occupied CRE loans.

因此，我們的信貸損失準備金持續增加，截至 3 月底佔期末貸款的 1.66%。當您按貸款類型分析我們的準備金水平時，您會發現我們與同行相比類似或更好，我們認為我們在商業房地產方面的準備金特別充足，包括針對非業主自用CRE 貸款的3% ACL 。

Turning to Slide 12. We continue to build our capital position with CET1 of 24 basis points to 10.3% or 330 basis points above our required minimum, including our stress capital buffer. Our marked CET1 ratio, which includes unrealized AFS and pension losses, increased 13 basis points to 7.1%, and our tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio held steady, down just 2 basis points at 5.04%.

轉向投影片 12。我們的顯著 CET1 比率（包括未實現的 AFS 和退休金損失）增加了 13 個基點，達到 7.1%，我們的有形普通股與有形資產比率保持穩定，僅下降 2 個基點，為 5.04%。

This outcome despite the roughly 40 basis point increase in 5-year rates during the quarter reflects work we have done over the past year to reduce our exposure to higher rates. This includes reducing the size of our securities portfolio, reducing the portfolio duration and putting on roughly $7 billion of paid fixed swaps, while terminating about $7.5 billion of fixed cash flow swaps last fall. We've reduced our DVO1 by 27% over the past 12 months.

儘管本季 5 年期利率上漲了約 40 個基點，但這一結果反映了我們在過去一年中為減少高利率風險所做的工作。這包括縮小我們的證券投資組合規模、縮短投資組合久期以及發行約 70 億美元的付費固定掉期，同時終止去年秋天約 75 億美元的固定現金流掉期。過去 12 個月，我們的 DVO1 降低了 27%。

Our AOCI was negative $5.3 billion at quarter end, including $4.3 billion related to AFS. As we shared with you in the past, the right side of this slide shows Key's go-forward expected reduction in our AOCI mark based on two scenarios. The forward curve as of March 31, which assumes 6 rate cuts through 2025, and another scenario where rates hold at March 31 levels through the end of next year. In the forward curve scenario, the AOCI mark is expected to decline by approximately 32% by the end of 2025, which would provide approximately $1.7 billion of capital build through that time frame. In the flat scenario, we still accrete $1.3 billion of capital driven by maturities, cash flows and time.

截至季末，我們的 AOCI 為負 53 億美元，其中包括與 AFS 相關的 43 億美元。正如我們過去與您分享的那樣，這張投影片的右側顯示了 Key 基於兩種情況的 AOCI 分數的預期下降。截至 3 月 31 日的遠期曲線，假設到 2025 年有 6 次降息，另一種情況是利率維持在 3 月 31 日的水準到明年年底。在遠期曲線情境中，到 2025 年底，AOCI 馬克預計將下降約 32%，這將在這段時間內提供約 17 億美元的資本建設。在持平的情況下，我們仍會在期限、現金流量和時間的推動下累積 13 億美元的資本。

Slide 13 provides our outlook for 2024 relative to 2023. In short, our guidance is unchanged from what we shared in January. If there's one commitment, we think will be a little more challenging to hit, it will be ending loan balances given the impact of rate increases on client demand and our own selectivity of loans. But as we'll show you in a minute, we don't believe this will impact our ability to deliver on our net interest income commitments, both for the full year and the fourth quarter exit rate.

投影片 13 提供了我們相對於 2023 年對 20​​24 年的展望。如果有一項承諾，我們認為實現起來會更具挑戰性，考慮到升息對客戶需求和我們自己的貸款選擇性的影響，它將結束貸款餘額。但正如我們稍後將向您展示的那樣，我們認為這不會影響我們履行全年和第四季度退出率淨利息收入承諾的能力。

On Slide 14, we updated the net interest income opportunity from swaps and short-dated treasuries maturing. As forward rates have moved higher this quarter, this cumulative opportunity has increased to $975 million from the roughly $900 million we estimated last quarter. Of course, some of this incremental benefit will be offset by higher funding costs and a higher-for-longer environment. As of the end of the first quarter, we've realized a little over 30% of this opportunity to date, which is shown on the left side of the slide in the gray bars. This leaves about $650 million annualized net interest income opportunity left that we expect to capture over the next 12 months.

在投影片 14 上，我們更新了掉期和到期短期國債的淨利息收入機會。隨著本季遠期利率走高，這一累積機會已從我們上季度估計的約 9 億美元增加到 9.75 億美元。當然，部分增量收益將被更高的融資成本和長期較高的環境所抵銷。截至第一季末，迄今為止，我們已經實現了略高於 30% 的機會，如幻燈片左側的灰色條所示。這使得我們預計在未來 12 個月內抓住約 6.5 億美元的年化淨利息收入機會。

Moving to Slide 15. We wanted to lay out for you the path of how we intend to get from the $886 million of reported net interest income this quarter to a $1 billion plus number by the end of the year. In the top walk, we've laid out the drivers of growth, assuming rates generally follow the forward curve and the Fed cuts twice later this year once in September and again in December. In this scenario, we see about $120 million benefit from the swaps and U.S. Treasuries in line with what we showed you on the previous slide. We also have another roughly $1.1 billion of projected fixed rate cash flows rolling every quarter, currently yielding in the low 2% range that will get reinvested at higher rates. This offsets the immediate impact that rate cuts would have on our variable rate loans and other short-term floating rate investments.

轉到投影片 15。在上面的分析中，我們列出了成長的驅動因素，假設利率總體上遵循遠期曲線，並且聯準會今年稍後兩次降息，一次是在 9 月，另一次是在 12 月。在這種情況下，我們預計互換和美國國債將帶來約 1.2 億美元的收益，與我們在上一張幻燈片中向您展示的情況一致。我們還有另外約 11 億美元的預計固定利率現金流每季滾動，目前收益率在 2% 的較低範圍內，將以更高的利率進行再投資。這抵消了降息對我們的浮動利率貸款和其他短期浮動利率投資的直接影響。

We see some modest benefit in the year from lower funding costs, particularly from our index commercial deposits and wholesale funding. We'd also expect the net interest margin to improve meaningfully to the 2.4% to 2.5% range in the fourth quarter with about 75% of the improvement driven by the treasuries and swaps and the other 25% through lower funding costs. In the bottom walk, we hold rates flat to where they are at March 31. In this scenario, we get more earning asset repricing benefit because variable rate loans and other short-term instruments do not reprice lower. That is partially offset by deposit betas continuing to creep a little higher. As we've said, we expect to support clients and prospects to drive high-quality loan growth throughout the year. Should loan demand remain softer than expected, we would still expect to meet our Q4 net interest income guidance in either scenario I just described.

我們認為今年融資成本下降會帶來一些適度的好處，特別是來自我們的指數商業存款和批發融資。我們也預期第四季淨利差將顯著改善至 2.4% 至 2.5% 的範圍，其中約 75% 的改善是由國債和互換推動的，另外 25% 是透過較低的融資成本推動的。在底部走勢中，我們將利率維持在3 月31 日的水平。更低。這被存款貝塔值繼續小幅上升所部分抵消。正如我們所說，我們希望為客戶和潛在客戶提供支持，推動全年貸款的高品質成長。如果貸款需求仍然弱於預期，我們仍預計在我剛才描述的任何一種情況下都能達到第四季度淨利息收入指引。

With that, I will now turn the call back to the operator for instructions for the Q&A portion of our call. Operator?

這樣，我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，以獲取電話問答部分的說明。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Clark, I'm wondering if you can kind of start where you just finished and just looking at those two scenarios on Slide 15. I hear you that it still seems like there's a lot of ways to get to that $1 billion plus. Just wondering how you can help us understand the variance of those outcomes, maybe a way to think about how much those two cuts mean on their own or some of the other kind of moving parts that would change that? Or is it really just like a pretty narrow answer whatever the cut scenario is in terms of where that fourth quarter exit lands?

Clark，我想知道您是否可以從您剛剛完成的地方開始，看看幻燈片 15 上的這兩個場景。只是想知道你如何幫助我們理解這些結果的差異，也許是一種思考這兩次削減本身或其他一些會改變這一情況的活動部分意味著多少的方法？或者，無論第四季度退出的情況如何，這真的就像一個相當狹窄的答案嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Ken. Great question. I would point you to 15 and just say, if you look at the two ends, the swap and UST roll-off, that's a pretty predictable number. We think we've been good about disclosing the details there. That's, I think, pretty straightforward math. It will be a little bit better in a no cut than in a cut scenario, as you know, but it's within a bound range when you think about 2 cuts versus 0. And then on the other side, the impact from loan growth, which, again, we think is coming, but will be a little bit back-end loaded has a relatively minimum in-year impact.

是的。謝謝，肯。很好的問題。我會指出 15，如果你看看兩端、交換和 UST 滾降，這是一個相當可預測的數字。我們認為我們已經很好地披露了那裡的細節。我認為這是非常簡單的數學。如你所知，不削減比削減的情況要好一些，但當你考慮 2 次削減和 0 次削減時，它是在一個有限範圍內的。 另一方面，貸款增長的影響，再次，我們認為即將到來，但後端負載會增加，對年內的影響相對最小。

So the range of outcomes on loan growth, while we -- we'd rather have more in year, I don't think is a huge driver in this number. So it really is those two pieces in the middle and the trade between how much more you get from asset repricing, net of loan yields, if there are cuts versus what the impact of funding is and those sort of work to offset each other a little bit, but in a way that we think is relatively muted for the course of the year.

因此，貸款成長的結果範圍，雖然我們希望今年有更多的貸款成長，但我認為這並不是這個數字的巨大推動因素。因此，這實際上是中間的這兩部分，以及您從資產重新定價中獲得多少收益（扣除貸款收益率）（如果有削減）與融資的影響以及這些相互抵消的工作之間的權衡有點，但我們認為在這一年中相對平靜。

And then just the other point I'd make is the $886 million well on the low end for the quarter was within the guide. And obviously, when we gave you the guide for Q1, we had in mind hitting not only the full year guide, but importantly, the fourth quarter exit rate, and we continue to confirm our ability to do that. Is that helpful?

我要指出的另一點是，本季低端的 8.86 億美元在指導範圍內。顯然，當我們向您提供第一季的指南時，我們不僅考慮到全年指南，而且重要的是第四季度的退出率，我們將繼續確認我們有能力做到這一點。有幫助嗎？

Yes, it is. And as a follow-up on that loan growth point, I'm just wondering in the prepared remarks, Chris talked about the new agreement with Blackstone. And I'm just wondering that dynamic and how that plays into the combination of loan growth, investment banking fees and kind of like what that means for how you originate versus how you distribute?

是的。作為貸款增長點的後續行動，我只是想知道克里斯在準備好的演講中談到了與黑石的新協議。我只是想知道這種動態以及它如何影響貸款成長、投資銀行費用以及這對你的發起方式和分配方式意味著什麼？

Well, Ken, so it's a good question. Let me hit the loan growth kind of head on. We have always demonstrated an ability to grow loans. Having said that, sort of three things all have to be present for us to grow loans. One, there has to be demand. Right now, there is not a lot of loan demand out there. So that's point one. You see it in kind of flat utilization among other things and not a lot of investment. The second thing is, it has to be in our clients' best interest for us to, in fact, provide those loans. And you probably noticed that we raised $22 billion, but only put 12% on our balance sheet, and that's because we can better serve our clients, whether it's through the forward flow arrangement with Blackstone that you referenced or a variety of other markets.

嗯，肯，這是一個很好的問題。讓我正面談談貸款成長。我們一直表現出增加貸款的能力。話雖如此，我們要增加貸款，必須具備三件事。一、要有需求。目前，貸款需求不多。這就是第一點。你會看到它的利用率除其他外是平坦的，而不是大量的投資。第二件事是，事實上，我們提供這些貸款必須符合客戶的最大利益。您可能注意到，我們籌集了220 億美元，但只將12% 計入資產負債表，這是因為我們可以更好地服務我們的客戶，無論是透過您提到的與Blackstone 的遠期流量安排還是透過各種其他市場。

And the third thing is that they have to -- the loans that are available to put on our balance sheet have to fit our risk profile and they have to fit our return requirements. And right now, there's not a lot of loans like that from our perspective. Having said that, what's interesting about bank loans is because there's excess capacity, the best time to make bank loans is when there's a downturn. And our house view is we are going to see a downturn, and that will be a great time for us to really use our balance sheet.

第三件事是他們必須－可用於我們資產負債表的貸款必須符合我們的風險狀況，並且必須符合我們的回報要求。目前，從我們的角度來看，這樣的貸款並不多。話雖如此，銀行貸款的有趣之處在於，產能過剩，銀行貸款的最佳時機是經濟低迷的時候。我們的觀點是，我們將看到經濟低迷，這將是我們真正利用資產負債表的好時機。

Your question, though, the implications of your question really are broader than just the loan growth. And let me just spend a little bit of time talking about how we're positioning Key. We think that no matter how things play out, all banks like Key are going to have to carry more capital. And as a consequence of that, what we're focusing on is really serving our clients through capital-light type businesses, specifically payments, which we've invested in for a long time, investment banking, which we referenced, our wealth business, which we think we have an opportunity to really grow, and lastly, something that we frankly haven't capitalized on the degree that we could or should have to date, and that's business banking.

不過，你的問題的影響確實比貸款成長更廣泛。讓我花一點時間談談我們如何定位 Key。我們認為，無論事態如何發展，像 Key 這樣的所有銀行都將不得不持有更多資本。因此，我們真正關注的是透過輕資本類型的業務為我們的客戶提供服務，特別是我們長期投資的支付業務、我們提到的投資銀行業務、我們的財富業務，我們認為我們有機會真正發展，最後，坦白說，我們還沒有充分利用迄今為止我們可以或應該擁有的程度，那就是商業銀行業務。

We're a really good commercial bank. We've never really capitalized on the opportunity, in my opinion, to gather the deposits. That's a -- business bank is a very deposit-centric business. So I just wanted to give you some insight of how we're thinking about the business model going forward and how we continue to reposition Key.

我們是一家非常好的商業銀行。在我看來，我們從未真正利用過這個機會來吸收存款。這是一家－商業銀行是一家非常以存款為中心的企業。所以我只是想讓您了解我們如何思考未來的商業模式以及我們如何繼續重新定位 Key。

And our next question is from John Pancari from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

Just on that loan growth topic, I know you had also indicated you do expect new loan origination to pick up as you look through 2024. I mean in what areas do you think that you're going to be able to see the better opportunities begin to emerge? I know demand is modest as you just said and line utilization weaker. So what areas do you see that anecdotal evidence of a pickup that could drive accelerating originations and balance sheet growth as you look through '24?

就貸款成長主題而言，我知道您也表示，您確實預計 2024 年新貸款發放將會增加。我知道正如您剛才所說，需求不大，而且線路利用率較低。那麼，當您回顧 24 年時，您認為哪些領域的復甦可能會推動加速啟動和資產負債表成長？

Sure. So the first area that I would say would be people doing strategic things. So sort of the whole transaction business, which is just starting to get legs under it. We have a significant backlog, for example, in M&A. That would be an opportunity, John. Other businesses that are really capital-intensive where we have leadership positions in are things like renewables. I was out calling with our renewables team last week, incredible amount of opportunity. By the way, this is partially inflationary because there's a ton of stimulus around green energy. That's a huge opportunity.

當然。所以我要說的第一個領域是人們做策略性的事情。整個交易業務就是這樣，它才剛開始發展。例如，在併購方面，我們有大量積壓的訂單。那將是一個機會，約翰。我們在其他真正資本密集的業務中處於領先地位，例如再生能源。上週我給我們的再生能源團隊打電話，機會非常多。順便說一句，這在一定程度上會導致通貨膨脹，因為圍繞綠色能源有大量刺激措施。這是一個巨大的機會。

Affordable housing, still a huge unmet need that is very, very capital intensive. And then I think you'll start to see people really start to invest in property, plant and equipment. If we continue to get an acceleration in inflation, you're going to see people start to go a little long on inventory. Those are the areas where I think there'll be opportunities for loan growth. We're not really seeing those right now, but I think they'll develop over the course of the year, John.

經濟適用房仍然是一個巨大的未滿足的需求，而且是非常非常資本密集的。然後我想你會開始看到人們真正開始投資房地產、廠房和設備。如果通貨膨脹繼續加速，你會看到人們開始持有過多的庫存。我認為這些領域將有貸款成長的機會。我們現在還沒有真正看到這些，但我認為它們將在這一年中得到發展，約翰。

Got it. Chris. Just related to that, is any of the weakness related to bond market disintermediation right now?

知道了。克里斯。與此相關的是，目前的疲軟是否與債券市場脫媒有關？

For sure. When you have record issuance of investment-grade debt and you have spreads that continue to grind in, there's no question that, that plays a role.

一定。當投資等級債務的發行創紀錄且利差持續擴大時，毫無疑問，這會發揮作用。

Okay. And then lastly, on the IB and capital markets revenues, I know you indicated that you do expect some pullback in fees in the second quarter. In what areas -- is that in the IB area, just given the levels that you saw this quarter? And maybe if you can help quantify the magnitude of that pullback that you could see in the second quarter.

好的。最後，關於IB和資本市場收入，我知道您表示您確實預計第二季費用會有所回落。考慮到本季的水平，是在哪些領域——是在 IB 領域？也許您可以幫助量化第二季可能看到的回檔幅度。

Yes. So let me kind of start at the top. From a backlog perspective, we are at record backlogs in our M&A business. Our backlogs are above where they were a quarter ago and they're above where they were at year-end. Having said that, when the [10-year] is gyrating around as it is, if the 10-year was just at 4.6%, I think there'd be a lot of transactions. But I think any time there's this kind of volatility, it causes pause on certain transactions. And so that was really the premise of my comment as we look at what will come out of the backlog in the second quarter.

是的。那麼就讓我從頂部開始。從積壓的角度來看，我們的併購業務積壓創歷史新高。我們的積壓訂單高於一個季度前的水平，也高於年底的水平。話雖如此，當[10年期]如此波動時，如果10年期利率只有4.6%，我認為會有很多交易。但我認為任何時候出現這種波動都會導致某些交易暫停。因此，當我們研究第二季積壓的工作時，這確實是我發表評論的前提。

And I'm sure because the first quarter was actually hospitable to getting transactions done, I'm sure some that would have been in the second quarter actually went into the first quarter.

我確信，因為第一季實際上有利於完成交易，所以我確信一些本應在第二季進行的交易實際上已經進入了第一季。

Next question is from Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

Chris, I was hoping you could address in a bit more detail the decision to build the reserve a bit more. It sounds like from your prepared remarks, you're just sort of trying to be out in front of anything you might see in a higher-for-longer environment rather than anything you're actually seeing today. Is that the right way to think about it? Or what are sort of the nuances in there?

克里斯，我希望你能更詳細地闡述建立更多保護區的決定。從你準備好的發言來看，你只是想站在更高、更長期的環境中看到的任何事物，而不是今天實際看到的任何事物。這是正確的思考方式嗎？或其中有哪些細微差別？

Yes. Actually, it was completely proactive. I just -- I'm of a mindset that we're in this higher for longer. And as a consequence, we have been stressing all of our portfolio. And we -- any time we do that, we start with anything that's leveraged because that's most vulnerable. And we also focus a lot on real estate. And so as we go through and we make assumptions that perhaps these rates will stay where they are for some time, that's what's driving it. And also we made some assumptions about -- my view is we probably will have a recession. And that's part of the -- my macro view is part of the calculus as well.

是的。事實上，這完全是主動的。我只是——我的心態是，我們會在這個更高的水平上停留更長時間。因此，我們一直在強調我們所有的投資組合。每當我們這樣做時，我們都會從任何有槓桿的東西開始，因為那是最脆弱的。我們也非常關注房地產。因此，當我們進行研究並做出假設時，這些利率可能會在一段時間內保持在原位，這就是推動這一趨勢的原因。我們也做了一些假設——我的觀點是我們可能會陷入衰退。這是我的宏觀觀點的一部分，也是微積分的一部分。

Okay. Perfect. And then maybe we can go to expenses for a quick second. So just curious around how you're thinking about expenses sort of holistically for the year insofar as we definitely are getting a more normalizing investment banking environment, which is great, but there could be cost accompanied with that. Within the expense outlook, what kind of provisions have you made for that IB recovery? And would you still be kind of comfortable with the guide even if that recovery comes back even more powerfully than it's currently contemplated?

好的。完美的。然後也許我們可以快速討論一下費用。因此，我很好奇您如何從整體上考慮今年的支出，因為我們肯定會獲得一個更正常化的投資銀行環境，這很好，但隨之而來的可能是成本。在費用前景中，您為 IB 恢復制定了哪些準備金？即使復甦的力度比目前預期的更為強勁，您是否仍會對這份指南感到滿意？

Yes. Scott, it's Clark. Thanks for the question. So look, we feel good on the guide kind of relatively stable, plus or minus 2%. That incorporates, as we talked about progression towards normalization. If we get something fuller, I think we can absorb that. Obviously, we weren't expecting coming into the year to additional FDIC charge. So that's an extra component. We will continue to look at ways to absorb that intelligently. But we think we can cover the impact of a strong investment banking year, which, again, we expect to see even if the second quarter is a little bit lighter. So we did discount, we think for that pretty well.

是的。史考特，我是克拉克。謝謝你的提問。所以看，我們感覺引導上比較穩定的那種，正負2%左右。正如我們所討論的走向正常化的進展，這包括在內。如果我們得到更充實的東西，我想我們可以吸收它。顯然，我們預計今年 FDIC 不會收取額外費用。所以這是一個額外的組件。我們將繼續尋找明智地吸收這一點的方法。但我們認為我們可以涵蓋投資銀行業務強勁年度的影響，即使第二季度的情況稍微溫和一些，我們也預計會看到這一年的影響。所以我們打了折扣，我們認為這很好。

And the next question is from Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞。

I wanted to follow up on the Blackstone partnership and just in general, with partnerships with private credit. In terms of underwriting the loans, do you underwrite the loans? And is it your sole decision? Does private credit partner come in? And how does it impact spreads and term and structure as you do more of these relationships?

我想跟進黑石的合作關係以及與私人信貸的合作夥伴關係。在承銷貸款方面，你們承銷貸款嗎？這是你唯一的決定嗎？私人信貸合作夥伴會加入嗎？當您建立更多這些關係時，它如何影響點差、期限和結構？

Manan, it's Clark. Thanks for the question. First of all, I think it's just important to understand the rationale behind the partnership, and that is largely to support more clients, not to manage capital or move loans off the balance sheet. It's really for us, largely in our specialty finance area. That's been growing very aggressively. It's been an outstanding business, but we do think thoughtfully about managing credit concentrations, and this is the opportunity to do that and not limit the amount of clients we can serve.

馬南，是克拉克。謝謝你的提問。首先，我認為了解合作夥伴關係背後的基本原理很重要，這主要是為了支持更多客戶，而不是管理資本或將貸款移出資產負債表。這確實適合我們，主要是在我們的專業金融領域。這種增長非常積極。這是一項出色的業務，但我們確實深思熟慮地考慮管理信貸集中度，這是做到這一點的機會，而不是限制我們可以服務的客戶數量。

So I think that strategic rationale is really important. As it relates to underwriting, we basically run the business, do the underwriting, Blackstone has an option to participate in these credits if they fit their box. But obviously, if we entered and announced a relationship, we've been very deep with them on what the box looks like and what it reflects. And we think our business reflects market conditions as does their appetite. So we would expect this to go well. It's a 1-year deal, and we will test the relationship over the course of the year. We hope it goes very positively because if it does, we're supporting a lot more clients and prospects in growing our business.

所以我認為戰略原理非常重要。由於與承銷相關，我們基本上經營業務，進行承銷，如果黑石符合條件，則可以選擇參與這些信貸。但顯然，如果我們進入並宣布了合作關係，我們將與他們深入了解盒子的外觀及其反映的內容。我們認為我們的業務反映了市場狀況，也反映了他們的胃口。所以我們預計一切都會順利。這是一項為期一年的協議，我們將在這一年中測試我們的關係。我們希望它能取得非常積極的進展，因為如果確實如此，我們將支援更多的客戶和潛在客戶來發展我們的業務。

And again, given our we think differentiated distribution model, we don't necessarily always need to grow the balance sheet to grow the business. But this is a case where we would expect to actually do both. We'd expect to continue to grow this portfolio, but moderate some of that growth with a partner, we'll get a modest rate. The other one is health care. Health care is an area where we have a very significant strategic hold and there's no question that there's going to be a lot of consolidation in health care because a lot of health care companies are under a myriad of cost pressures. And the other thing -- area where we saw some was just consumer services broadly. Those are the areas.

再說一遍，鑑於我們認為差異化的分銷模式，我們不一定總是需要擴大資產負債表來發展業務。但在這種情況下，我們希望實際上兩者都做到。我們預計將繼續擴大該投資組合，但與合作夥伴一起緩和部分成長，我們將獲得適度的利率。另一個是醫療保健。醫療保健是我們擁有非常重要策略地位的領域，毫無疑問，醫療保健領域將會進行大量整合，因為許多醫療保健公司面臨著巨大的成本壓力。另一件事——我們看到的一些領域只是廣泛的消費者服務。這些是領域。

The next question is from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I just had one follow-up, Chris. When you think -- when you talked about your outlook for a recession, the stress testing on your loan book for the higher-for-longer, I guess the markets have generally been wrong expecting higher rates to push the economy into a recession. I guess from your perspective, bottoms up, when you assume higher-for-longer, do you see a lot of pain within your loan book 6, 12, 18 months out that causes you to have that view? And I'm just trying to wonder, are higher-for-longer enough in a world where the economy could continue to surprise to the upside in terms of growth. Just how do you think about it, especially when you're stress testing these loans?

我剛剛進行了一次後續行動，克里斯。當你思考——當你談到對經濟衰退的前景、對貸款帳簿進行長期較高的壓力測試時，我想市場普遍錯誤地預期更高的利率將把經濟推入衰退。我想從你的角度來看，自下而上，當你假設利率更高、持續時間更長時，你是否會在6、12、18 個月後的貸款簿中看到很多痛苦，導致你產生這種觀點？我只是想知道，在一個經濟可能繼續以驚人的成長速度成長的世界裡，經濟成長的時間是否夠長。您如何看待這個問題，尤其是當您對這些貸款進行壓力測試時？

So in terms of just higher-for-longer, as you look at our book and you look at 2024, higher-for-longer works just fine for us. That would -- from an NII perspective, that would be the best outcome just from pure NII.

因此，就長期更高的目標而言，當您閱讀我們的書並展望 2024 年時，會發現長期更高的目標對我們來說效果很好。從 NII 的角度來看，這將是純粹 NII 的最佳結果。

I will tell you, I'd like to see a perfect scenario for Key would be a couple of cuts late in the year because I think that would be good for business, fees, deposits, transactions, et cetera. As I think about the economy, my sort of word of caution here is if you look at the labor market, the labor market is very strong by any metric. And I just think everyone assuming that there's going to be a soft landing without damaging the labor market. I hope the markets are right about that. I'm not so sure. So that's kind of -- that's sort of my thinking if that's helpful.

我會告訴你，我希望看到 Key 的完美場景是在今年年底進行幾次削減，因為我認為這對業務、費用、存款、交易等都有好處。當我思考經濟時，我在這裡要提醒的是，如果你看看勞動市場，無論以任何標準衡量，勞動市場都非常強勁。我認為每個人都認為會在不損害勞動市場的情況下實現軟著陸。我希望市場的看法是正確的。我不確定。這就是我的想法，如果有幫助的話。

That's helpful. And I guess just bigger picture, I mean, I think it's been an interesting last 12 months for Key in terms of RW optimization, expense focus, et cetera. Remind us, as we look forward strategically, like the 1 or 2 things you're most focused on? Is it still in terms of optimizing the balance sheet, expenses, growth, like how -- what should we be thinking about as you think about just coming out of this and where the next leg of growth comes for the bank?

這很有幫助。我想只是更大的圖景，我的意思是，我認為過去 12 個月對於 Key 來說在 RW 優化、費用重點等方面是有趣的。當我們進行策略性展望時，請提醒我們，您最關注的一、兩件事是什麼？是否仍然是在優化資產負債表、費用、成長方面，例如當你考慮擺脫這種情況以及銀行的下一個成長階段將在哪裡時，我們應該考慮什麼？

Sure. So coming out -- so there's no question that 2023 was a reset year for Key for all the reasons that you just pointed out, and I'm really proud of what we did shrinking RWAs by $14 billion, taking out about $400 million of expenses. Having said that, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we now, Ebrahim, are playing offense. And what that involves is us leaning into areas where we already have, I think, a good competitive position, payments, investment banking, wealth, and I mentioned business banking as well. Because I think as we go forward, the loan-to-deposit ratios are going to be really, really important. We, as you know, have taken our loan deposit ratio down to 77. I think kind of mid-70s is where people are going to have to be as you lean into these businesses that are really kind of fee-centric businesses. So that's where we're leaning in. That's where we're investing.

當然。因此，出於您剛才指出的所有原因，毫無疑問 2023 年是 Key 的重置年，我對我們將 RWA 縮減 140 億美元、削減約 4 億美元費用的做法感到非常自豪。話雖如此，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們，易卜拉欣，現在正在進攻。這涉及到我們傾向於進入我們已經擁有良好競爭地位的領域，我認為，支付、投資銀行、財富，我也提到了商業銀行業務。因為我認為隨著我們的前進，貸存比率將變得非常非常重要。如你所知，我們已將貸款存款比率降至 77。所以這就是我們所傾注的地方。

The next question is from Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的麥克梅奧。

Look, Chris, I know Capital Markets is your baby from times past. I guess when I look at 17% year-over-year growth, that was still lagging the big five U.S. players. So I'm just -- good time to reminder of who is KeyBanc Capital Markets, what's your mix among advisory, underwriting, equity underwriting, what's your typical size of the client? What are your key metrics for KeyBanc Capital Markets? And where do you stand with regard to those metrics?

聽著，克里斯，我知道資本市場是你過去的寶貝。我想當我看到 17% 的同比增長時，這仍然落後於美國五巨頭。所以，我只是想提醒一下誰是 KeyBanc Capital Markets，您的諮詢、承銷、股票承銷業務是怎樣的，您的客戶的典型規模是多少？ KeyBanc 資本市場的關鍵指標是什麼？您對這些指標有何看法？

Sure. That's a great question. Obviously, we, on a percentage basis, are more canted towards advisory. These are middle market companies, a lot of them aren't going to the equity markets very often. And if there are huge equity deals, those are always led by both bracket firms. So ours is heavily canted towards M&A. The good news there, Mike, is that we've talked before, M&A pulls through a lot of the other things that we do, financing, hedging, et cetera.

當然。這是一個很好的問題。顯然，從百分比來看，我們更傾向於諮詢。這些是中間市場公司，其中許多並不經常進入股票市場。如果有巨額股權交易，那麼這些交易總是由兩家公司主導。因此，我們非常傾向於併購。麥克，好消息是我們之前談過，併購貫穿了我們所做的許多其他事情，融資、對沖等等。

So we feel good about where we're positioned. But the difference probably as you go -- if you went through all the numbers, the difference would be that some of the largest banks, obviously, are the players in investment-grade issuance and the players in large equity issuance.

所以我們對自己的定位感覺良好。但差異可能是——如果你仔細查看所有數字，差異將是一些最大的銀行顯然是投資級發行的參與者和大型股票發行的參與者。

Yes. And on -- Mike, it's Clark. The only other point I'd add there is that a lot of the volume in the first quarter was $10 million plus deals or very, very large cap. And while we do some work with them, we are a middle market-focused bank. So I think that's some of the delta on things like M&A.

是的。麥克，我是克拉克。我要補充的唯一一點是，第一季的交易量很大一部分是 1000 萬美元以上的交易或非常非常大的上限。雖然我們與他們做了一些合作，但我們是一家專注於中間市場的銀行。所以我認為這是併購等方面的一些增量。

And then when you talk about the multiplier effect from mergers because you said backlogs are up quarter-over-quarter, backlogs are up year-over-year. I guess you expect some good growth this year after the second quarter. How can you quantify that multiplier effect? Is that like 1.2, 1.5, 2x, does it vary?

然後，當您談論合併的乘數效應時，因為您說積壓訂單逐季度增加，積壓訂單逐年增加。我想您預計今年第二季之後會出現良好的成長。如何量化乘數效應？是不是像 1.2、1.5、2x，有變化嗎？

It would be the latter. It varies, Mike. But I did say that our M&A backlog is at record highs. And for us, that is the most important. Because if you think about it, if you have the relationship, the M&A relationship by definition, you're talking to in these middle market businesses, the decision maker. So I feel good about how we're positioned. But keep in mind, these markets -- things are not yet normalized. They're getting back to normal, but they're not yet normalized. And as I mentioned earlier, it isn't the absolute level of interest rates that I think is -- has a dampening effect. I think the volatility in interest rates forces people to the sideline and to wait things out.

應該是後者。情況有所不同，麥克。但我確實說過，我們的併購積壓量創歷史新高。對我們來說，這才是最重要的。因為如果你想一想，如果你有這種關係，顧名思義就是併購關係，那麼你就是在與這些中間市場企業的決策者交談。所以我對我們的定位感覺很好。但請記住，這些市場的情況尚未正常化。他們正在恢復正常，但尚未正常化。正如我之前提到的，我認為利率的絕對水準並不具有抑製作用。我認為利率的波動迫使人們觀望並等待事情結束。

And so we need some settling in of rates. It doesn't much matter, frankly, where that is. As I said, a 4, 6 tenure would be just fine to transact. But what we can't have is just extreme volatility.

因此，我們需要對費率進行一些調整。坦白說，那在哪裡並不重要。正如我所說，4、6 個任期就可以進行交易。但我們不能擁有的只是極端的波動。

And then last one on that. Where is KeyBanc Capital Markets revenue when you look out over, say, a 10-year horizon? Because I know the whole industry was down by almost half last year and you're kind of bouncing off low levels. But specifically for you guys, where are you?

然後是最後一個。當您展望 10 年時，KeyBanc 資本市場的收入在哪裡？因為我知道去年整個產業下跌了近一半，而你正在從低水準反彈。但特別是對你們來說，你們在哪裡？

Well, I mean I think if you look at our normalized investment banking, if you -- figure $600 million to $650 million in sort of normalized kind of times. And as you know, because you've followed us for some time, that's been a double-digit CAGR. And there's no reason why we can't get back to that level of growth if you think about 10 years and you look at the 10 years prior.

嗯，我的意思是，如果你看一下我們標準化的投資銀行業務，如果你計算出 6 億至 6.5 億美元的標準化時間。如您所知，因為您已經關注我們一段時間了，所以複合年增長率達到了兩位數。如果你想想 10 年並看看 10 年前的情況，我們沒有理由不能回到那樣的成長水準。

Our next question is from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的傑拉德·卡西迪。

Clark, you mentioned about the loan portfolio, how you purposely exited single credit relationships and Chris, you talked about building the business bank deposit base better. Can you guys give us some more color on these types of credits that you've pushed out, were they syndicated loans since it was only a loan relationship? And then the second, getting back to that business bank. Chris, how does that differ from the commercial banks? I think you said it's two different business lines.

克拉克，您提到了貸款組合，您如何有目的地退出單一信貸關係，克里斯，您談到了更好地建立商業銀行存款基礎。你們能給我們更多關於你們推出的這些類型的信貸的信息嗎？然後是第二個，回到那家商業銀行。克里斯，這與商業銀行有什麼不同？我想你說這是兩條不同的業務線。

Yes. So let me take the first one first, Gerard. So in a lot of cases, well, we have a relationship strategy, and we had these relationship review sessions where we see what kind of penetration we get. And often, we let bankers many times, it starts by sort of lagging into being a participant in a sector that we're really, really good, and we think we can do a lot of things and have a lot of capabilities. And it's just a matter of being really disciplined. And if we actually provide a loan, and I've often said a properly graded loan can't return its cost of capital.

是的。那麼，讓我先講第一個，傑拉德。因此，在許多情況下，我們有一個關係策略，並且我們舉行了這些關係審查會議，以了解我們獲得了什麼樣的滲透。通常，我們讓銀行家很多次，一開始就落後於成為我們非常非常擅長的行業的參與者，我們認為我們可以做很多事情並且擁有很多能力。這只是一個真正遵守紀律的問題。如果我們真的提供貸款，我經常說，適當分級的貸款無法收回其資本成本。

And so it actually is destroying value unless you can cross-sell. We're really proud of what we can do. But if we can't penetrate that client, we need to exit that client to free up the capital to put it someplace where we can make the kind of returns. And so that was just the exercise. Obviously, it had a huge amount of attention and our time frame of acceptance contracted a bit last year when we were going through the exercise.

因此，除非你可以交叉銷售，否則它實際上正在破壞價值。我們對我們能做的事情感到非常自豪。但如果我們無法滲透到該客戶，我們就需要退出該客戶以釋放資本，並將其放在我們可以獲得回報的地方。這只是練習。顯然，它引起了極大的關注，去年我們進行這項練習時，我們接受的時間框架已經縮短。

As it relates to business banking, it is the same business as middle market, except that you need to be really focused on the payments piece because, as I said, they're mostly deposit-centric businesses. And that's the reason that we've restructured in November of last year and put our payments business together with our middle market business. And we think that's going to be critical to being able to go down market and really serve these smaller commercial businesses that we think we have a differentiated product offering.

由於它與商業銀行業務相關，因此它與中間市場的業務相同，只是您需要真正關注支付部分，因為正如我所說，它們主要是以存款為中心的業務。這就是我們在去年 11 月進行重組並將支付業務與中間市場業務合併在一起的原因。我們認為，這對於能夠進入下游市場並真正為這些小型商業企業提供服務至關重要，我們認為我們擁有差異化的產品。

And Chris, when you talk about the deepening of the relationship with these customers that may only have a loan or deposit relationship. Aside from payments, what are those other products that you can use to deepen that relationship to make it more profitable?

克里斯，當你談到與這些可能只有貸款或存款關係的客戶的關係加深時。除了支付之外，您還可以使用哪些其他產品來加深這種關係，從而提高利潤？

Well, sure. Well, it starts with -- and certainly through last year's exercise, the first thing that we went to customers and said, we need your deposits. So it starts as simple as getting the deposits. And I think 86% or so of our businesses, we have multidimensional relationships. The next thing that we focus on is payments. We've been investing in payments for a long time. And for these middle market businesses, it's not just moving money around, but it's providing information, embedded banking and so forth.

嗯，當然。嗯，首先是——當然是透過去年的實踐，我們對客戶說的第一件事是，我們需要你們的存款。所以一切開始就像獲得存款一樣簡單。我認為我們 86% 左右的企業都擁有多維關係。我們接下來關注的是支付。我們長期以來一直在支付領域進行投資。對於這些中間市場企業來說，它不僅僅是轉移資金，而且還提供資訊、嵌入式銀行業務等。

And then, of course, we have the ability to help them hedge. We have the ability to raise capital for them. And then obviously, the ultimate is being able to give them strategic advice. We're fortunate that because we're structured around industries, we can do all of those things, but we can't do those things if the company isn't receptive to our ideas.

當然，我們有能力幫助他們對沖。我們有能力為他們籌集資金。顯然，最終的目標是能夠為他們提供策略建議。我們很幸運，因為我們是圍繞著行業構建的，所以我們可以做所有這些事情，但如果公司不接受我們的想法，我們就無法做這些事情。

Very good. And then as a follow-up question, I know you guys addressed what you did in the deep dive for looking at the portfolios. In the criticized loan increase, can you give us the #1, 2 or 3 reasons a loan moved into criticized? Was it a loan-to-value degradation? Or was it a debt service coverage? What was kind of the main factors that pushed them into criticized?

非常好。然後作為一個後續問題，我知道你們解決了在深入研究投資組合時所做的事情。在受到批評的貸款增加中，您能否告訴我們貸款受到批評的第 1、2 或 3 個原因？這是貸款價值下降嗎？還是償債保險？導致他們受到批評的主要因素是什麼？

It's debt service coverage. So the first thing we focus on is debt service coverage. And for purposes of this, we completely de-link any secondary source of repayment and we assume that the only source of repayment is the primary source, and that, of course, is straight up cash flow.

這是償債保險。因此，我們首先關注的是償債覆蓋範圍。為此，我們完全取消了任何次要還款來源的關聯，並假設唯一的還款來源是主要來源，當然，就是直接現金流。

Our final question will come from the line of Peter Winter from D.A. Davidson.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 D.A. 的彼得溫特 (Peter Winter)。戴維森。

Chris, you mentioned in your opening remarks that you're ready to play offense again, but sounded a little bit cautious on period-end loan growth. Can you just talk about the loan commitments, loan pipelines and how you're thinking about loan utilization in the second half of the year?

克里斯，您在開場白中提到您已準備好再次進攻，但聽起來對期末貸款增長有點謹慎。您能否簡單談談貸款承諾、貸款管道以及您對下半年貸款利用的看法？

Yes. So I don't think those things are incongruent. We clearly are playing offense. We're out hiring people. We're focusing on the business that I'm mentioning. Having said that, because of our business model, we are not seeing huge loan demand. And so if you think about utilization, we're basically flat at 32% and we've been flat at 32% for the last few quarters. Our loan book is building, and there's no question that our backlog is not -- is higher than it was, but it's not at historical standards.

是的。所以我不認為這些事情是不一致的。我們顯然是在進攻。我們要出去招人了。我們專注於我所提到的業務。話雖如此，由於我們的商業模式，我們並沒有看到巨大的貸款需求。因此，如果考慮利用率，我們基本上持平於 32%，並且在過去幾季我們一直持平於 32%。我們的貸款帳簿正在增加，毫無疑問，我們的積壓貸款並沒有比以前更高，但不符合歷史標準。

And Peter, I might just say -- sorry, it's Clark. I might just say thematically, and I think Chris has hit this a couple of times, but maybe just to summarize a little bit. I think for us, when we say we're playing offense, we think that looks like disciplined loan growth in our targeted verticals, which we've been, I think, very consistent about over time. I think it's funded by quality deposit growth from commercial and consumer clients. And it's monetized through a series of, we think, leading fee platforms that build that broader relationship. So we think that's the recipe. And when we're doing those things and they don't always come together and they don't always come necessarily in that order. But when we're doing and running our business in the relationship manner that we intend to, that's what it feels like.

彼得，我可能會說——抱歉，是克拉克。我可能只是從主題上說，我認為克里斯已經說過幾次了，但也許只是為了總結一下。我認為對我們來說，當我們說我們正在進攻時，我們認為這看起來像是我們目標垂直領域的有紀律的貸款增長，我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們一直非常一致。我認為它的資金來自商業和消費者客戶的優質存款成長。我們認為，它是透過一系列領先的收費平台來實現貨幣化的，這些平台建立了更廣泛的關係。所以我們認為這就是秘訣。當我們做這些事情時，它們並不總是一起出現，也不一定總是按照這個順序出現。但當我們以我們想要的關係方式開展和經營我們的業務時，那就是這種感覺。

Got it. And then can I ask if the outlook is a pretty strong momentum in the margin for this year, and you've mentioned a more normalized margin is closer to 3%. Would you expect to get near that level maybe towards the end of next year?

知道了。然後我可以問一下，今年的利潤率前景是否相當強勁，您提到更正常化的利潤率接近 3%。您預計明年年底可能會接近這一水平嗎？

Yes. I'm focused on confirming guidance for this year, Peter, but it's a totally fair question. I do think it's a function a little bit of the shape of the curve and absolute rates. But as I've said before, I think based on the business model we have in a normal kind of upward sloping to at least flatter yield curve, I think that's achievable. So it is a function -- I can't predict where that yield curve is going to be in 2025. But I think as our positions burn off, we get more to the type of balance sheet we want to have and you get a little bit more normalized rate environment, regardless maybe of even absolute levels of rates, but just direction of the curve, I think that's very achievable.

是的。彼得，我的重點是確認今年的指導，但這是一個完全公平的問題。我確實認為這是曲線形狀和絕對利率的函數。但正如我之前所說，我認為基於我們正常向上傾斜的商業模式，至少使殖利率曲線更加平坦，我認為這是可以實現的。所以它是一個函數——我無法預測 2025 年收益率曲線會在哪裡。的利率環境，無論利率的絕對水平如何，但只是曲線的方向，我認為這是非常可以實現的。

We do have a couple of other questions that just queued up. Steve Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.

我們確實還有其他幾個問題正在排隊。摩根大通的史蒂夫·阿萊克索普洛斯。

This is Janet Lee on for Steve Alexopoulos. Just following up on John's question earlier on investment banking and capital markets. Are you maintaining your stance that you are progressing towards this normal level of $600 million to $650 million range for IBs this year? Because if I look at absent a double-digit decline in IB fees in the second quarter, it looks like you're on pace to exceed that normal level. Is that a fair way to describe? And where is that decline in IB fees expected in the second quarter mostly coming from? Is that debt capital markets, commercial mortgage, can you provide more insight?

我是史蒂夫·阿萊克索普洛斯的珍妮特·李。只是跟進約翰早些時候關於投資銀行和資本市場的問題。您是否堅持​​認為今年 IB 將朝著 6 億至 6.5 億美元的正常水平邁進？因為如果我考慮到第二季IB費用沒有出現兩位數的下降，那麼看起來您將超過正常水平。這是一個公平的描述方式嗎？預計第二季 IB 費用的下降主要來自哪裡？是債務資本市場、商業抵押貸款，您能提供更多見解嗎？

Yes. So this is Clark, Janet. So we would be consistent with where we were before, which is kind of that $600 million to $650 million range. We think that feels right. We do think there's upside to that. But as Chris mentioned, we'll be down in the second quarter, I think that's a function, not necessarily any one area because the rate volatility, I think, is causing some hesitancy in a few different places. That doesn't change our outlook for the year, but I don't think at this point, we're totally prepared to say that will go to kind of a full normalized view.

是的。這是克拉克，珍妮特。因此，我們將與先前的水準保持一致，即 6 億至 6.5 億美元的範圍。我們認為這種感覺是對的。我們確實認為這有好處。但正如克里斯所提到的，我們將在第二季度下降，我認為這是一個功能，不一定是任何一個領域，因為我認為利率波動在一些不同的地方引起了一些猶豫。這不會改變我們對今年的展望，但我認為目前我們還沒有完全準備好說這將是一種完全正常化的觀點。

Okay. And just one follow-up on your loan review. I understand that office CRE is a very small portion of your overall portfolio. And as you've done the reappraisals on the properties on I guess, including office, if you have, like what percentage of decline you're generally seeing on your office? And what's happening to the updated cash flows from the landlords? Any insight you could share on that?

好的。只需對您的貸款審查進行一次後續行動。據我了解，辦公室 CRE 只佔您整體投資組合的一小部分。我猜你已經對房產進行了重新評估，包括辦公室，如果有的話，你的辦公室通常會下降多少百分比？房東的最新現金流發生了什麼變化？您對此有什麼見解可以分享嗎？

Yes. I think we'll have to come back a little bit on office just to make sure we have those numbers right. It's not a huge portfolio. And while we're watching it, I just don't have those details in front of me.

是的。我認為我們必須回到辦公室來確保我們的數字是正確的。這不是一個龐大的投資組合。當我們觀看它時，我只是不知道這些細節。

We do have a question from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的傑拉德·卡西迪向我們提出了一個問題。

I have a quick follow-up for you guys. Clark, can you show -- you talked about the Blackstone relationship. And I think you mentioned that they'll participate in the specialty finance originations. How does this relationship differ from the other relationships you guys have had? Chris, obviously, you've always pointed out the originate-to-distribute model is one of your key metrics here. And I was just curious how this one with Blackstone is going to differ from what you've already had in place for years?

我為你們進行了快速跟進。克拉克，您能否表明—您談到了與黑石集團的關係。我想你提到他們將參與專業金融的發起。這段關係與你們之前的其他關係有何不同？克里斯，顯然，您總是指出發起到分發模型是您的關鍵指標之一。我只是很好奇與 Blackstone 合作的這項舉措與你們多年來已經採取的措施有何不同？

So this is just a lot more formalized in that we actually work together, and we actually service it and we're together focused on this certain asset class. But to your point, we've been distributing the preponderance of everything we originate forever, including to a lot of the credit funds. So it's just -- it's a formalization and most importantly, it's a forward flow agreement. So whereas we've always participated on a deal-by-deal basis, this is an arrangement as we go forward.

因此，這更加正式，因為我們實際上一起工作，我們實際上為它提供服務，我們一起專注於這個特定的資產類別。但就你而言，我們一直在分配我們創造的一切的優勢，包括許多信貸基金。所以這只是——這是一個正式化，最重要的是，它是一個遠期流量協議。因此，雖然我們一直是逐筆交易地參與，但這是我們前進的安排。

And Gerard, just on the concentration point because it is a concentration management tool, this allows us to do it kind of at origination and not in this book historically. We didn't do a lot of syndications. We would do securitizations on a client-by-client basis, but that takes time, as you know. So this allows us to do it kind of on the fly as we're going and manage that concentration.

傑拉德（Gerard），就集中點而言，因為它是一種集中管理工具，這使我們能夠在最初就這樣做，而不是在歷史上在本書中這樣做。我們沒有做很多聯合組織。我們會根據每個客戶的情況進行證券化，但這需要時間，如您所知。因此，這使我們能夠在進行過程中快速進行並管理注意力。

I got it. And then just a quick follow-up on it. Have you guys worked with Blackstone in the past before this agreement? Or is this your first initial foray with them?

我得到了它。然後快速跟進。在達成這項協議之前，你們過去是否曾與 Blackstone 合作過？還是這是您第一次與他們接觸？

No, we've worked on a transactional basis with Blackstone in the past for certain.

不，我們過去確實與 Blackstone 進行過交易合作。

And we have a question from John Pancari from Evercore.

Evercore 的 John Pancari 向我們提出了一個問題。

Sorry for the follow-up. Just one quick follow-up. Chris, you -- I believe you just mentioned in discussing your criticized assets that you delink secondary source of repayment when you're considering the credit stability to repay in your criticized status. So does that mean you exclude and don't consider any recourse agreement that you have with either financial sponsors or the underlying borrower?

抱歉後續。只需一個快速跟進。克里斯，你——我相信你剛剛在討論你的受批評資產時提到，當你考慮在受批評的狀態下償還信用穩定性時，你與第二還款來源脫鉤了。那麼，這是否意味著您排除並且不考慮與財務贊助商或基礎借款人簽訂的任何追索協議？

That's correct. So we're looking at straight up cash on cash. What's the cash flow? What's the ability to service the debt based on the cash flow?

這是正確的。因此，我們正在考慮直接現金支付。現金流是多少？根據現金流量償還債務的能力如何？

Okay, so we got recourse.

好的，所以我們有追索權。

That's right. Yes. So it's a conservative perspective for sure. I'll give you an example. We have -- because I just looked through all these. We have a company that has a market cap of, say, $24 billion, but they're having some near-term operational challenges. They, for example, would be on the list of criticized assets, just to give you an idea.

這是正確的。是的。所以這肯定是保守的觀點。我給你舉個例子。我們有——因為我剛剛瀏覽了所有這些。我們有一家公司，其市值為 240 億美元，但他們近期面臨一些營運挑戰。例如，它們會出現在受批評的資產清單中，只是為了給您一個想法。

Yes. And just to be clear, John, as Chris said, it's the primary repayment for the risk rating, which is what gets [the] classified. We then take into account the secondary pieces when we think about ultimate loss content.

是的。需要明確的是，約翰，正如克里斯所說，這是風險評級的主要償還，這就是分類的內容。然後，當我們考慮最終損失內容時，我們會考慮次要部分。

And we have a question from Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities.

富國銀行證券公司的麥克梅奧向我們提出了一個問題。

Just a big picture question. You stressed weak loan growth. And I'm just wondering, is that a sign the economy is not as strong as people think it is? I mean you're in a lot of different states in the U.S. Or is it simply your commercial clients' saying, "Hey, we wonder if borrowers are going to wait for rates to drop?"

只是一個大問題。您強調貸款成長疲軟。我只是想知道，這是否顯示經濟並不像人們想像的那麼強勁？我的意思是，您身處美國許多不同的州，或者只是您的商業客戶在說：“嘿，我們想知道借款人是否會等待利率下降？”

I think it's both, Mike. I think I have not seen a lot of people making significant investments in property, plant and equipment and I'm not seeing people make significant investments in inventory, in technology and in people. So I think it's a combination of both. I think rates clearly have an impact, but I think uncertainty as to the path and direction of the economy is also a factor.

我想兩者都是，麥克。我認為我沒有看到很多人在財產、廠房和設備方面進行重大投資，也沒有看到人們在庫存、技術和人員方面進行重大投資。所以我認為這是兩者的結合。我認為利率顯然會產生影響，但我認為經濟路徑和方向的不確定性也是一個因素。

Okay. So this is more concern among the decision makers about what's their ultimate cost of capital due to the volatility in rates than it is some underlying, hey, we're going into a recession right now.

好的。因此，決策者更關心的是由於利率波動而導致的最終資本成本，而不是一些潛在的問題，嘿，我們現在正陷入衰退。

No, I think it's both. I'm not saying that they think we're going to go into recession, but I think there's just a lot of uncertainty about the path of the economy. Will the Fed engineer a soft landing, kind of very similar to the conversation we've been having this morning.

不，我認為兩者都是。我並不是說他們認為我們將陷入衰退，但我認為經濟發展道路存在許多不確定性。聯準會設計軟著陸嗎？

And at this time, there are no further questions in queue. Please continue with your closing remarks.

此時，隊列中沒有其他問題了。請繼續您的結束語。

Well, thank you, operator. Again, thank you for participating in our call today. If you have any follow-up questions, you can direct them to our Investor Relations team (216) 689-4221. This concludes our remarks. Thank you.

好的，謝謝你，接線生。再次感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，可以直接聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊 (216) 689-4221。我們的發言到此結束。謝謝。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。