International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now I will turn the meeting over to Olympia McNerney, IBM's Global Head of Investor Relations. Olympia, you may begin.

歡迎各位，感謝您耐心等候。(接線員指示) 今日的電話會議將被錄音。如您有任何異議，您可於此時中斷連線。現在我將會議交給 IBM 全球投資人關係主管 Olympia McNerney。Olympia，您可以開始了。

Thank you. I'd like to welcome you to IBM's second quarter 2026 earnings presentation. I'm Olympia McNerney, and I'm here today with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。歡迎各位參加 IBM 2026 年第二季財報說明會。我是 Olympia McNerney，今天與我一同出席的有 IBM 董事長、總裁暨執行長 Arvind Krishna，以及 IBM 資深副總裁暨財務長 Jim Kavanaugh。

We'll post today's prepared remarks and a replay of today's webcast on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours. The earnings presentation is already available. To provide additional information to our investors, our presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures. For example, all of our references to revenue and signings growth are at constant currency.

我們將在幾個小時內於 IBM 投資人網站上發布今日的事先準備講稿以及今日網路直播的重播。財報簡報已可取得。為向投資人提供更多資訊，我們的簡報包含若干非 GAAP 指標。例如，我們所有對營收與簽約成長的提及皆以固定匯率計算。

We provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation, which is posted to our investor website. Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

我們在簡報末尾提供了這些及其他非 GAAP 財務指標的調節表，該簡報已張貼於我們的投資人網站。最後，本簡報中的部分評論依 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》可能被視為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及可能導致我們實際結果出現重大差異的因素。關於這些因素的更多資訊載於公司向 SEC 提交的文件中。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

那麼，接下來我把電話交給 Arvind。

Thank you for joining us today. I saw in our preannouncement, our second quarter performance fell short of expectations. Consistent with our commitment to transparency, we shared the results as soon as our financial close process was substantially complete. I won't revisit the details from the preannouncement as Jim will provide additional context.

感謝各位今天加入我們。正如我們在預先公告中所提到的，我們第二季表現未達預期。秉持我們對透明度的承諾，我們在財務結帳流程大致完成後即第一時間分享了結果。我不會重述預先公告中的細節，Jim 會提供更多背景說明。

Instead, I will focus on the positioning of our business, the growth opportunities we see ahead and actions we are taking to address execution in the quarter. Our conviction in the strength of our business and our ability to grow and drive shareholder value remains unchanged. We recognize that the technology spending environment remains dynamic, and we must continue to evolve how we engage clients, bringing the full breadth of IBM's innovation to bear on their most important priorities.

相反地，我將聚焦於我們業務的定位、我們所看到的成長機會，以及我們為改善本季執行所採取的行動。我們對自身業務實力、以及成長並為股東創造價值的能力之信念依然不變。我們認知到科技支出環境仍具動態變化，我們必須持續演進與客戶互動的方式，將 IBM 全面創新能力運用於他們最重要的優先事項上。

As clients determine how and where to deploy AI, we believe our portfolio is well positioned to help them realize value in a secure, cost-effective and scalable way. Over the last five years, we have transformed our business, improved the durability of our revenue growth and strengthen our operating model. Those fundamentals remain intact.

當客戶決定如何以及在何處部署 AI 時，我們相信我們的產品組合具備良好定位，可協助他們以安全、具成本效益且可擴展的方式實現價值。過去五年，我們已轉型業務、提升營收成長的韌性，並強化我們的營運模式。這些基本面依然穩固。

Software is nearly 45% of our total revenue and has been repositioned to higher-growth end markets across Hybrid Cloud, data, automation and mission-critical transaction processing software running on mainframe. Our offerings help clients build and run applications and AI anywhere, unlock the value of their data, orchestrate and govern AI at scale and operate more efficiently, securely and resiliently.

軟體約占我們總營收的 45%，並已重新定位至混合雲、資料、自動化，以及在大型主機上運行的關鍵任務交易處理軟體等高成長終端市場。我們的產品協助客戶在任何地方建置與運行應用程式與 AI、釋放其資料價值、以規模化方式協調與治理 AI，並以更高效率、更安全且更具韌性的方式營運。

Our second quarter software shortfall was limited to a CapEx sensitive area of the portfolio. The vast majority of our software business, about 80% of that revenue is recurring in nature and delivered healthy growth in the quarter, reflecting the demand for our offerings and giving us confidence in our growth opportunity.

我們第二季軟體的落差僅限於產品組合中對資本支出（CapEx）較敏感的領域。我們軟體業務的絕大部分——約 80% 的該項營收——屬於經常性收入，本季仍實現健康成長，反映市場對我們產品的需求，並讓我們對成長機會更具信心。

Our AI strategy is the right one for IBM and aligns to what we are known for hybrid, sovereignty and trust. We have held the view for a while that the unprecedented investment in AI infrastructure and models will increase pressure on enterprises to generate meaningful returns from that spend. Value will increasingly shift towards the orchestration and data layers so that clients can optimize outcomes, cost and governance across multiple models and agents and keep control of their proprietary data.

我們的 AI 策略對 IBM 而言是正確的，也與我們一向以混合、主權與信任著稱的定位一致。我們早已認為，對 AI 基礎設施與模型的空前投資，將使企業更承受必須從該等支出中產生實質回報的壓力。價值將日益轉向協調層與資料層，使客戶能在多個模型與代理之間最佳化成果、成本與治理，同時維持對其專有資料的控制。

IBM's differentiation lies in our neutrality and enterprise-grade operational control, the ability to orchestrate agents across models, clouds and on-premises environments, while also providing built-in observability, evaluation, governance, identity management and security. Watsonx Orchestrate is the control plane that helps clients build, manage and govern agents which combined with Red Hat gives clients a foundation to run inference and applications on any infrastructure.

IBM 的差異化在於我們的中立性與企業級營運控制能力：能在不同模型、雲端與地端環境間協調代理，同時提供內建的可觀測性、評估、治理、身分管理與安全性。Watsonx Orchestrate 是控制平面，可協助客戶建置、管理與治理代理；並與 Red Hat 結合，為客戶提供在任何基礎設施上運行推論與應用程式的基礎。

BOB is our entry point into the developer ecosystem, helping clients build enterprise-ready AI applications and agents while creating a natural pathway to adoption of watsonx Orchestrate and IBM's broader AI platform. Confluent delivers real-time governed data to models and agents across our control plane.

BOB 是我們切入開發者生態系的入口，協助客戶建置企業就緒的 AI 應用程式與代理，同時自然引導其採用 watsonx Orchestrate 與 IBM 更廣泛的 AI 平台。Confluent 透過我們的控制平面，向各模型與代理提供即時且受治理的資料。

Concert provides enterprises with a unified view of application health, security, compliance and operational performance. Clients remain in the early stages of AI adoption making a combination of consulting expertise and technology, a key differentiator. We are helping move clients to deployment, and that's translating into growing demand across Consulting led by generative AI.

Concert 為企業提供應用程式健康狀態、安全性、合規與營運效能的統一視圖。客戶仍處於 AI 採用的早期階段，因此結合顧問專業與技術能力是關鍵差異化因素。我們正協助客戶推進至部署階段，這也轉化為由生成式 AI 帶動的顧問服務需求成長。

In Infrastructure, despite challenges this quarter, z17 is having the best refresh cycle in reported history. Transaction volumes, cyber requirements and resilience continue to drive growth for the mainframe. While clients continually evaluate workload placement, we see no evidence of clients moving off the mainframe. z17 remains at nearly 130% program to program, well ahead of z16, which was our strongest on record.

在基礎設施方面，儘管本季面臨挑戰，z17 正創下有報告以來最佳的更新週期。交易量、資安需求與韌性持續推動大型主機成長。雖然客戶持續評估工作負載的部署位置，我們未見任何客戶移出大型主機的跡象。z17 目前在「同代對同代」的表現接近 130%，明顯領先 z16；而 z16 是我們歷來最強的一代。

IBM Z runs over 70% of the world's transaction volume in terms of value. To give you a perspective on our reach, there are over 140 million installed MIPS running mission-critical transactions across every industry. Clients representing 85% of these installed MIPS are either maintaining or growing capacity. Earlier this month, we introduced a smaller LinuxONE system that allows clients to address data center space and cost constraints while offering the security, resiliency and real-time inferencing Z platform can deliver.

以價值衡量，IBM Z 承載了全球超過 70% 的交易量。為讓各位了解我們的觸及範圍，目前在各產業中有超過 1.4 億已安裝的 MIPS 正在運行關鍵任務交易。代表其中 85% 已安裝 MIPS 的客戶，正維持或提升其容量。本月稍早，我們推出更小型的 LinuxONE 系統，讓客戶在面對資料中心空間與成本限制時仍能因應，同時提供 Z 平台可帶來的安全性、韌性與即時推論能力。

This innovation expands our addressable market. Distributed Infrastructure just delivered its best quarter of revenue growth and record growing 37%. We see this as an increasingly important growth vector for IBM, driven by AI adoption and the rapid growth of enterprise data. We have been investing across power and storage AI infrastructure to position ourselves for this market opportunity. Power continues to gain momentum as the value proposition of Power11, resiliency, performance and Linux modernization resonates with clients.

這項創新擴大了我們的可服務市場。分散式基礎設施剛交出其營收成長最佳的一季，並以 37% 的成長創下新高。我們認為這將成為 IBM 日益重要的成長向量，受 AI 採用與企業資料快速成長所驅動。我們已在運算與儲存的 AI 基礎設施上持續投資，以把握此市場機會。Power 持續累積動能，因為 Power11 的價值主張——韌性、效能與 Linux 現代化——正引起客戶共鳴。

We are gaining share in storage through differentiated offerings across Flash, Fusion and tape, including AI-enabled capabilities that help clients scale and manage data for AI. Demand remains strong, driving a robust pipeline and positioning us well for the second half of the year. We are acting decisively to capture new market opportunities as they arise. The Mythos release in early April has accelerated the discovery of security vulnerabilities for clients.

我們透過在 Flash、Fusion 與磁帶等領域的差異化產品提升儲存市占，其中包含可支援 AI 的功能，協助客戶為 AI 擴展並管理資料。需求依然強勁，推動穩健的商機管道，並使我們在下半年具備良好態勢。我們正果斷行動，在新市場機會出現時加以掌握。四月初發布的 Mythos 已加速客戶對安全漏洞的發現。

This creates a multibillion dollar TAM for IBM and Red Hat to help clients secure their open source software through our new capability, Lightwell. IBM offers a differentiated value proposition as a leader in open source through Red Hat and also recent acquisitions of Confluent and Harshi. Clients can subscribe to Lightwell for $1 million per year to access open source packages that have been remediated or validated.

這為 IBM 與 Red Hat 透過我們的新能力 Lightwell，協助客戶保護其開源軟體，創造了數十億美元規模的 TAM（可服務總市場）。IBM 透過 Red Hat 作為開源領域的領導者，並結合近期對 Confluent 與 Harshi 的收購，提供差異化的價值主張。客戶可每年以 100 萬美元訂閱 Lightwell，以存取已修補或已驗證的開源套件。

In the first two weeks of availability, we have already made more than 7,500 package versions available. Early adopters of Light well include organizations like Bank of America, BNY, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorganChase, Mastercard, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Canada, State Street, Visa, Wells Fargo and more.

在可用性的前兩週內，我們已經提供了超過 7,500 個套件版本。Light well 的早期採用者包括美國銀行（Bank of America）、紐約梅隆銀行（BNY）、花旗（Citi）、高盛（Goldman Sachs）、摩根大通（JPMorganChase）、萬事達卡（Mastercard）、摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）、加拿大皇家銀行（Royal Bank of Canada）、道富（State Street）、Visa、富國銀行（Wells Fargo）等多家機構。

Finally, quantum computing is no longer decades away. It is upon us, and we are investing aggressively. Recently with the US Department of Commerce we announced a letter of intent to build Anderon, the world's first pure-play quantum foundry, supported by $1 billion in chips incentives provided by the Department of Commerce and $1 billion cash contribution by IBM.

最後，量子運算不再是數十年後的事。它已經到來，而我們正積極加碼投資。近期我們與美國商務部共同宣布一份意向書，計畫建造 Anderon——全球第一座純量子晶圓代工廠（pure-play quantum foundry），由商務部提供的 10 億美元晶片補助與 IBM 10 億美元現金出資支持。

Shortly after that, we disclosed plans to invest more than $10 billion in Quantum over the next five years, spanning R&D, CapEx, manufacturing scale-up, M&A and ecosystem expansion. This supports our road map to stalling in 2029, the world's first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer.

不久之後，我們披露了未來五年在量子領域投資超過 100 億美元的計畫，涵蓋研發（R&D）、資本支出（CapEx）、製造擴產、併購（M&A）以及生態系擴張。這將支持我們的路線圖，目標是在 2029 年推出全球第一台大規模容錯量子電腦。

Recently, IDC evaluated 11 quantum computing vendors and ranked IBM first overall, citing our ecosystem readiness for Quantum Advantage, our track record of delivering the road map on time and our quantum classical integration. With the portfolio we have and the opportunities ahead, it comes down to execution. That is where we fell short in the second quarter.

近期，IDC 評估了 11 家量子運算供應商，並將 IBM 排名為整體第一，理由包括我們為「量子優勢」（Quantum Advantage）所做的生態系準備、按時交付路線圖的實績，以及我們的量子—經典整合能力。以我們現有的產品組合與未來的機會而言，關鍵在於執行。而這正是我們在第二季未達標之處。

We have engaged with clients on the transactions that slipped and have a clear understanding of what needs to change. We are adapting to deliver greater business value to clients around our innovation and greater economic value to better align with client priorities. At the same time, we are accelerating productivity actions across the company, spanning both spend reduction initiatives and actions designed to drive growth.

我們已就延宕的交易與客戶進行溝通，並清楚了解需要改變之處。我們正在調整作法，以我們的創新為客戶交付更高的商業價值，並創造更高的經濟價值，以更好地與客戶優先事項對齊。同時，我們也在全公司加速推動生產力行動，涵蓋支出削減措施，以及旨在推動成長的各項行動。

These include leveraging AI to improve software development productivity increasing the effectiveness of our sales and marketing organization and accelerating our supply chain. Together, these actions help enhance our margin and free cash flow commitments, while improving our ability to capture the growth we see ahead. For this growth, we are also accelerating changes to our go-to-market model.

這些措施包括運用 AI 提升軟體開發生產力、提高我們銷售與行銷組織的效能，以及加速我們的供應鏈。綜合而言，這些行動有助於強化我們對利潤率與自由現金流的承諾，同時提升我們把握未來成長的能力。為了推動這項成長，我們也在加速調整我們的市場進入（go-to-market）模式。

The goal is to expand coverage across thousands of additional clients where our portfolio is highly relevant and where we see significant wallet share opportunities. While IBM has a strong presence within the Fortune 1000, there is a lot of opportunity beyond this. These changes are aligned with the areas of our business demonstrating strong momentum, including Red Hat, HashiCorp, Confluent, watsonx and Storage.

目標是在數千家額外客戶中擴大覆蓋範圍——在這些客戶中，我們的產品組合高度相關，且我們看到顯著的錢包份額（wallet share）機會。雖然 IBM 在《財富》1000 大企業中已具備強勢布局，但在此之外仍有大量機會。這些變革與我們業務中展現強勁動能的領域一致，包括 Red Hat、HashiCorp、Confluent、watsonx 與儲存（Storage）。

As AI adoption moves from experimentation to enterprise scale deployment, we are also investing in more specialized technical and client-facing talent, including forward deployed engineers. Our conviction in the strength of our business and our ability to capture the growth opportunities ahead remains unchanged. We now expect revenue growth for the full year in a range of 4% to 5%. We continue to expect to grow free cash flow by about $1 billion this year as we accelerate our productivity initiatives.

隨著 AI 採用從實驗走向企業級規模部署，我們也在投資更多專業的技術與客戶面向人才，包括前線部署工程師（forward deployed engineers）。我們對自身業務實力以及把握未來成長機會的能力之信心不變。我們目前預期全年營收成長介於 4% 至 5%。隨著我們加速推動生產力計畫，我們仍預期今年自由現金流將增加約 10 億美元。

With that, let me hand it over to Jim to go through the financials.

接下來，我把時間交給 Jim，請他說明財務表現。

Thanks, Arvind. In the second quarter, we delivered 1% revenue growth, 30 basis points of operating pretax margin expansion and 5% diluted operating earnings per share growth. And through the first half, we generated $4.8 billion of free cash flow.

謝謝你，Arvind。第二季，我們實現營收成長 1%、營業稅前利潤率擴張 30 個基點，以及稀釋後營業每股盈餘成長 5%。而在上半年，我們產生了 48 億美元的自由現金流。

Let me go through what played out in our segments in more detail. Software revenue grew 5% this quarter with flat organic revenue growth. As Arvind discussed in our preannouncement, in the final weeks of June, we saw a shift in client spending priorities. Many clients redirected spending towards servers, storage and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.

我更詳細說明各事業群在本季的表現。本季軟體營收成長 5%，但有機營收成長持平。如 Arvind 在我們的預先公告中所提到，6 月最後幾週我們看到客戶支出優先順序出現轉變。許多客戶將支出轉向伺服器、儲存與記憶體採購，以在預期漲價前先行確保供應受限的基礎設施。

As a result, tens of large deals failed to close on the time lines we expected, accounting for the majority of the shortfall. To understand these dynamics, it is important to recognize that many clients purchase mainframe and the associated software stack through our enterprise license agreements which create a strong incumbency moat for IBM and are generally treated as capital investments.

因此，數十筆大型交易未能在我們預期的時程內完成結案，構成了缺口的大部分。要理解這些動態，重要的是要認知到，許多客戶透過我們的企業授權協議（enterprise license agreements，ELA）採購大型主機（mainframe）及其相關軟體堆疊；這些協議為 IBM 形成強大的既有優勢護城河，且通常被視為資本投資。

These agreements typically contain a high concentration of transaction processing software although they may also include data and automation products. As clients prioritize other CapEx investments, the timing of these deals shifted resulting in transaction processing revenue declining 9%, while data grew 18% and automation grew 3%.

這些協議通常包含高度集中的交易處理（transaction processing）軟體，但也可能納入資料與自動化產品。當客戶優先投入其他資本支出（CapEx）時，這些交易的時點便出現移動，導致交易處理營收下滑 9%，而資料業務成長 18%、自動化成長 3%。

In contrast, we continue to see strong underlying demand in our subscription and consumption-based software. Because these are generally purchased as operating expenditures, they were largely unaffected by the CapEx dynamics that impacted some of our ELA transactions during the quarter.

相較之下，我們仍持續看到訂閱制與用量計費（consumption-based）軟體的強勁基本需求。由於這些通常以營運支出（OpEx）方式採購，因此大致未受本季影響部分 ELA 交易的 CapEx 動態所波及。

Let me take a step back and discuss the composition of our software revenue. We offer customers flexible purchasing options that align technology investments with their business needs, making it easier to adopt and scale solutions across their businesses.

我先退一步，說明我們軟體營收的組成。我們為客戶提供彈性的採購選項，使技術投資能與其業務需求對齊，並更容易在其業務中導入與擴大解決方案。

About 80% of our annual software revenue is recurring and is made up of subscription and consumption-based revenue like our Red Hat, HashiCorp and Confluent products. It also includes subscription and support revenue that provides customers with ongoing access to software enhancements and support. This revenue grew nicely in the quarter and our ARR was $24.6 billion, up 8% since last year.

我們年度軟體營收約有 80% 為經常性收入，主要由訂閱與用量計費收入構成，例如我們的 Red Hat、HashiCorp 與 Confluent 產品。其中也包含訂閱與支援收入，讓客戶能持續取得軟體強化更新與支援。本季這部分營收成長良好，我們的 ARR 為 246 億美元，較去年成長 8%。

The other 20% of software revenue is transactional in nature and is predominantly related to the incumbency with mainframe and the associated enterprise license agreements with transaction processing and other software products in data and automation. ELAs are highly valuable to IBM because they establish long-term strategic client commitments that expand adoption across our software products, creating a multiplier effect. Transactional revenue was down high single digits in the quarter given the shift in buying patterns we have discussed.

其餘約 20% 的軟體營收屬於交易型（transactional）性質，主要與大型主機的既有優勢，以及包含交易處理與其他資料、自動化軟體產品的企業授權協議（ELA）相關。ELA 對 IBM 極具價值，因為它們建立長期的策略性客戶承諾，擴大我們各項軟體產品的採用，並產生乘數效應。由於我們所討論的採購模式轉變，本季交易型營收下滑高個位數百分比。

On the subscription side of the business, HashiCorp had another record bookings quarter and accelerated revenue growth through the first half of the year. And Confluent is off to a strong start and on track with our expectations after its first full quarter post-close. Red Hat growth accelerated 1 point sequentially to 11%. And driven by improvement in the subscription piece of the business and stable growth in consumption-based services.

在訂閱業務方面，HashiCorp 再次創下預訂（bookings）季度新高，並在上半年加速營收成長。Confluent 在完成收購後的第一個完整季度表現強勁，且進展符合我們的預期。Red Hat 成長率較前一季加速 1 個百分點至 11%。這主要受惠於訂閱業務的改善，以及用量型服務維持穩定成長。

OpenShift ARR is now $2.2 billion with strong growth reflecting demand of our containerization and virtualization products, where we now have about $680 million of contracts signed since early 2024. In RHEL, performance continue to be impacted by constrained hardware availability similar to last quarter. Infrastructure revenue declined 7% this quarter.

OpenShift 的 ARR 現為 22 億美元，強勁成長反映市場對我們容器化與虛擬化產品的需求；自 2024 年初以來，我們已簽署約 6.8 億美元的合約。在 RHEL 方面，表現仍受到硬體供應受限的影響，與上季類似。本季基礎設施（Infrastructure）營收下滑 7%。

While Z performance was below our expectations through the first five quarters of z17 availability, revenue is well ahead of the prior cycles and nearly 130% program-to-program. As Arvind said, we see no evidence of clients moving off mainframe. Clients continue to invest in IBM Z to modernize mission-critical workloads with a focus on resiliency, security and increasingly enabling AI on the platform. AI is driving incremental capacity growth and new workloads as clients look to run AI closer to their most sensitive data.

雖然在 z17 上市後的前五個季度，IBM Z 的表現低於我們的預期，但營收仍明顯領先以往週期，且在同一代際對比（program-to-program）下接近 130%。如 Arvind 所說，我們沒有看到客戶從大型主機移轉離開的任何跡象。客戶持續投資 IBM Z，以現代化關鍵任務工作負載，重點在於韌性、安全性，並且日益在該平台上啟用 AI。隨著客戶希望讓 AI 更貼近其最敏感的資料來運行，AI 正帶動額外的容量成長與新工作負載。

We are seeing strong early adoption of our AI innovations with nearly 50% of z17 customers investing in AI capabilities with Spyre Accelerator and clients deploying watsonx Code Assistant for Z are growing MIPS capacity 3 times faster than those who are not. In a world where infrastructure costs are rising and efficiency matters more than ever. IBM Z offers a compelling economic advantage.

我們看到客戶對我們的 AI 創新在早期就有強勁採用動能，近 50% 的 z17 客戶正透過 Spyre Accelerator 投資 AI 能力；而部署 watsonx Code Assistant for Z 的客戶，其 MIPS 容量成長速度是未部署者的 3 倍。在一個基礎設施成本上升、效率比以往任何時候都更重要的世界裡。IBM Z 提供了極具吸引力的經濟優勢。

Depending on the size and complexity of workloads, clients can realize a 2 times to 15 times total cost of ownership benefit versus moving these workloads off the platform, reinforcing why the platform remains central to their operations and positioning us to capture additional value as AI workloads grow.

視工作負載的規模與複雜度而定，相較於將這些工作負載移出該平台，客戶可實現 2 倍至 15 倍的總擁有成本（TCO）優勢，這也強化了為何該平台仍是其營運核心，並使我們在 AI 工作負載成長之際得以捕捉更多價值。

And adding to Arvind's comments on the strength in Distributed Infrastructure, we exited the quarter with approximately $500 million of backlog, our highest on record, supporting continued momentum. In Consulting, signings grew 6%, marking our second consecutive quarter of growth and reflecting continued client investment in business transformation initiatives.

此外，延續 Arvind 對分散式基礎設施強勁表現的評論，我們在本季末的待履行訂單（backlog）約為 5 億美元，創下歷史新高，支撐動能持續。在顧問服務方面，簽約額成長 6%，為連續第二季成長，反映客戶持續投資於業務轉型計畫。

Revenue grew 1% and driven by demand for application modernization, data transformation and cybersecurity services as clients balance the needs to increase productivity through AI with the need to strengthen resiliency and manage risk. Revenue growth was balanced with both strategy and technology and Intelligent Operations up 1%.

營收成長 1%，主要由應用程式現代化、資料轉型與資安服務需求帶動；客戶在透過 AI 提升生產力的需求，與強化韌性及風險管理的需求之間取得平衡。營收成長在策略與技術，以及智慧營運（Intelligent Operations）兩方面均衡分布，其中智慧營運成長 1%。

Generative AI represented about 50% of our settings in the quarter and now makes up over 30% of our backlog. Underscoring the demand for AI-powered transformations that extend beyond technology modernization into core business operations. As clients move from pilots to enterprise-wide deployment, they are increasingly turning the Consulting to reengineer business processes and unlock productivity and new business value through AI, automation and digital labor.

生成式 AI 約占本季我們設定（settings）的 50%，目前也占我們待履行訂單的 30% 以上。這凸顯市場對 AI 驅動轉型的需求，已從技術現代化延伸至核心業務營運。隨著客戶從試點走向企業級全面部署，他們愈來愈倚重顧問服務來重塑業務流程，並透過 AI、自動化與數位勞動力釋放生產力與新的商業價值。

Let me now discuss profitability. Operating gross profit margins were down 70 basis points, largely driven by our revenue shortfall and mix. Despite this shortfall, productivity actions were ahead of plan, providing the flexibility to absorb Confluent related dilution, continued investing for growth and expanded adjusted EBITDA and operating pretax margins by 20 basis points and 30 basis points, respectively.

接下來我談談獲利能力。營運毛利率下滑 70 個基點，主要受營收未達預期與組合影響所致。儘管營收未達預期，我們的生產力行動仍超前計畫，提供了吸收 Confluent 相關稀釋的彈性、持續投入成長投資，並分別使調整後 EBITDA 與營運稅前利潤率擴張 20 個基點與 30 個基點。

Segment profit margin expanded by 160 basis points in Consulting and 110 basis points in software, driven by ongoing productivity actions. Infrastructure segment profit margin declined 150 basis points, reflecting the IBM Z mix headwind mitigated somewhat by strong Distributed Infrastructure margins.

在持續推動生產力行動的帶動下，顧問服務部門利潤率擴張 160 個基點，軟體部門利潤率擴張 110 個基點。基礎設施部門利潤率下滑 150 個基點，反映 IBM Z 組合的不利因素，但部分被分散式基礎設施的強勁利潤率所緩解。

Through the first half of the year, we generated $4.8 billion of free cash flow, flat year-over-year, driven by about $700 million increase in adjusted EBITDA, offset by inventory, higher cash taxes and net interest expense. Given the constrained infrastructure supply environment, we proactively took actions through the first half to strengthen our supply chain and support anticipated customer demand in the second half, reflecting the strength we see in our infrastructure business.

今年上半年，我們產生 48 億美元自由現金流，年對年持平；主要由調整後 EBITDA 約增加 7 億美元所帶動，但被庫存、較高的現金稅負與淨利息費用所抵銷。鑑於基礎設施供應環境受限，我們在上半年主動採取行動強化供應鏈，以支援下半年預期的客戶需求，反映我們所見基礎設施業務的強勁態勢。

We exited the second quarter with a strong liquidity position and a solid investment-grade balance sheet with cash of $8.2 billion. We returned $3.2 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends through the first half of the year. Our debt balance ending the quarter was $62 billion including debt of $13 billion for our Financing business, with the receivables portfolio that is 80% investment grade. Over the last five years, we have repositioned our business to higher growth end markets, improve the durability of our revenue and expanded operating pretax margins and free cash flow through disciplined execution and laser focus on productivity.

我們在第二季末維持強勁的流動性部位與穩健的投資等級資產負債表，現金為 82 億美元。今年上半年我們以股利形式向股東回饋 32 億美元。本季末我們的負債餘額為 620 億美元，其中包含融資業務的 130 億美元負債；其應收帳款投資組合中有 80% 為投資等級。過去五年，我們透過嚴謹執行與高度聚焦生產力，將業務重新定位至更高成長的終端市場，提升營收的持久性，並擴大營運稅前利潤率與自由現金流。

As Arvind mentioned, we are confident in our portfolio and strategy and the growth opportunities we see ahead. Let me now address our expectations for the remainder of the year. We now expect revenue growth for 2026 in the range of 4% to 5% and are maintaining our expectation to grow free cash flow by about $1 billion. We believe the low end of the revenue range appropriately reflects the current environment and is our base case.

如 Arvind 所提，我們對自身的產品組合與策略，以及未來可見的成長機會充滿信心。接下來我說明我們對今年剩餘期間的展望。我們目前預期 2026 年營收成長介於 4% 至 5%，並維持自由現金流增加約 10 億美元的預期。我們認為營收區間的下緣已適當反映當前環境，並作為我們的基本情境。

Given the second quarter shortfall, we are revising our software growth expectation to a range of 6% to 8% for the full year. While several of the deals that slipped from the second quarter have already closed in the first few weeks of the third quarter, the low end of the software range assumes that recent spending dynamics persist through the second half.

鑑於第二季未達預期，我們將全年軟體成長預期修正為 6% 至 8% 的區間。雖然第二季遞延的數筆交易已在第三季前幾週完成結案，但軟體區間的下緣假設近期支出動態將延續至下半年。

The high end assumes a more typical conversion of our pipeline. In light of the strong demand environment in Power and Storage, we now expect infrastructure to grow low single digits in 2026, driven by growth in Distributed Infrastructure and continued strong program-to-program performance in IBM Z through the second half of the year. Demand across Storage and Power remains strong, and we continue to secure inventory and accelerate our supply chain to capitalize on the opportunities we see in front of us.

區間上緣則假設我們的商機管道能以較典型的水準轉換為成交。鑑於 Power 與 Storage 的強勁需求環境，我們目前預期 2026 年基礎設施將呈現低個位數成長，主要由分散式基礎設施成長帶動，並在下半年延續 IBM Z 各計畫間（program-to-program）的強勁表現。Storage 與 Power 的需求仍然強勁，我們持續確保庫存並加速供應鏈，以把握眼前的機會。

In Consulting, the quality of our backlog and momentum in Gen AI continue to support an acceleration in revenue growth to low to mid-single digits for the year. We continue to see strong fundamentals of our business play out in the second half of the year as we accelerate our productivity initiatives to help enhance our margin and free cash flow commitments while continuing to invest in growth. These actions include deploying AI and automation at greater scale across the company.

在顧問服務方面，我們待履行訂單的品質與生成式 AI 的動能，持續支撐全年營收成長加速至低至中個位數。我們仍預期在下半年看到業務的強勁基本面持續展現；同時加速生產力計畫，以協助提升利潤率並達成自由現金流承諾，同時持續投資成長。這些行動包括在全公司更大規模部署 AI 與自動化。

Reducing third-party spend, improving sales and marketing efficiency, using AI to drive more efficient software development, optimizing our supply chain and enhancing services delivery. While revenue dynamics are creating margin pressure for the year, the pace of our productivity actions have exceeded our expectations.

降低第三方支出、提升銷售與行銷效率、運用 AI 推動更高效率的軟體開發、優化供應鏈並強化服務交付。雖然營收動態對全年利潤率造成壓力，但我們生產力行動的推進速度已超出預期。

As a result, we now expect to deliver 100 basis points of operating pretax margin expansion with productivity more than offsetting the revenue-related headwinds. Our operating tax rate for the year should be in the mid-teens, and the timing of discrete items can cause the rate to vary within a year.

因此，我們目前預期可實現 100 個基點的營運稅前利潤率擴張，生產力提升將足以抵銷與營收相關的不利因素。我們全年營運有效稅率應落在十位數中段（mid-teens），而一次性項目的時點可能使稅率在一年內有所波動。

For the full year, we continue to expect to grow free cash flow by about $1 billion. The primary driver of this growth will be adjusted EBITDA, offset by cash tax headwinds, higher CapEx and higher net interest expense, the majority of which is behind us.

就全年而言，我們仍預期自由現金流增加約 10 億美元。此成長的主要驅動因素將是調整後 EBITDA，但會被現金稅負的不利因素、較高的資本支出（CapEx）與較高的淨利息費用所抵銷，其中大部分影響已經過去。

Looking to the third quarter, we expect constant currency revenue growth consistent with the full year. Given the strengthening of the dollar, we now expect currency to be a 1.5 point headwind to revenue growth in the quarter. For operating pretax margin, we expect similar performance to the second quarter. Our third quarter operating tax rate should be in the mid-teens.

展望第三季，我們預期以固定匯率計算的營收成長將與全年一致。鑑於美元走強，我們目前預期匯率將對本季營收成長造成 1.5 個百分點的不利影響。在營運稅前利潤率方面，我們預期表現與第二季相近。第三季營運有效稅率應落在十位數中段。

Let me close by saying that our strategy has not changed. We are a leader in Hybrid Cloud. We are investing behind an AI opportunity that plays directly to IBM's strengths in data, orchestration and enterprise trust, and we continue to build leadership in Quantum. We remain confident in the growth opportunities ahead of us and our ability to capture them.

最後我想說，我們的策略並未改變。我們是混合雲領域的領導者。我們正加碼投資一項與 IBM 在資料、編排（orchestration）與企業信任等優勢高度契合的 AI 機會，同時持續建立在量子運算（Quantum）方面的領導地位。我們對未來的成長機會以及我們把握這些機會的能力仍充滿信心。

Arvind and I are now happy to take your questions. Olympia, let's get started.

Arvind 和我現在很樂意回答各位的提問。Olympia，我們開始吧。

Thank you, Jim. Before we begin Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items. First, supplemental information is provided at the end of the presentation. And second, as always, I'd ask you to refrain from asking multipart questions. Operator, let's please open it up.

謝謝你，Jim。在開始問答之前，我想先提兩點。第一，簡報末尾提供補充資訊。第二，一如往常，我想請各位避免提出多段式問題。接線員，請開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

(操作員指示)

Amit Daryanani, Evercore ISI.

Amit Daryanani，Evercore ISI。

I guess, Arvind, your commentary strongly suggests that the headwinds we saw in June quarter were a result of customers just reallocating spend towards AI infrastructure rather than reducing overall IT budgets. And I think the biggest debate everyone's had since the preannouncement has been, is this demand deferred or destroyed for IBM?

我想，Arvind，你的評論強烈暗示，我們在 6 月季度看到的逆風，是因為客戶只是把支出重新配置到 AI 基礎設施上，而不是削減整體 IT 預算。而且我認為，自從預先公告以來，大家最大的爭論一直是：對 IBM 來說，這個需求是延後了，還是被摧毀了？

So I'd love to understand what gives you the confidence that this is more a timing issue versus a structural shift in enterprise spending? And what milestones should we all be watching for over the next couple of quarters to gauge if demand truly starts to normalize for you folks? That would be really helpful.

所以我很想了解，是什麼讓你有信心認為這更像是時點問題，而不是企業支出出現結構性轉變？另外，在接下來幾個季度，我們應該關注哪些里程碑，來衡量你們的需求是否真的開始正常化？這會非常有幫助。

And Jim, I have to acknowledge the very impressive free cash flow guide from you folks despite the June quarter blip. Maybe just unpack a little bit on the building blocks behind your ability to maintain the free cash flow target as well.

另外，Jim，我必須肯定你們在 6 月季度出現波動的情況下，仍給出非常亮眼的自由現金流指引。也許請你再多拆解一下，你們能夠維持自由現金流目標背後的組成要素。

Amit, thanks for the question. Well, given that you use the word impressive, I'm going to ask Jim to address the impressive part first, and then I will address your question on the priorities.

Amit，謝謝你的提問。既然你用了「亮眼」這個詞，我先請 Jim 回應一下「亮眼」的部分，然後我再回答你關於優先事項的問題。

Thanks, Arvind, and thanks, Amit, for the question. I think it's a great place to start this call here tonight. Free cash flow, as you all know, has been one of the two key leading indicators of our financial investment thesis and our shareholder value creation model inside IBM. And I appreciate the word impressive because the team has worked extremely hard over the last four years, put this in perspective.

謝謝，Arvind，也謝謝，Amit，提出這個問題。我認為這是今晚電話會議一個很好的切入點。如各位所知，自由現金流一直是我們在 IBM 內部財務投資論點與股東價值創造模型的兩個關鍵領先指標之一。我也感謝你用「亮眼」這個詞，因為團隊在過去四年非常努力；讓我把它放在脈絡中說明。

Over the last four years, we have grown our free cash flow over $6.5 billion in this company and grown free cash flow margin 700 basis points. That gives us a lot of confidence here within the company. But when you look at first half, we produced roughly about $5 billion of free cash flow. That was flat year-to-year. The underpinnings really are driven by the fundamentals, the productivity mindset in this company and the ability to generate operating leverage is extremely strong overall.

在過去四年，我們把公司的自由現金流提高了超過 65 億美元，並將自由現金流利潤率提升了 700 個基點。這讓我們在公司內部非常有信心。但如果看上半年，我們產生了大約 50 億美元的自由現金流。這與去年同期持平。其根本支撐主要來自基本面、公司內部的生產力思維，而整體而言，創造營運槓桿的能力非常強。

Adjusted EBITDA was up high single digit. And as I said in the prepared remarks, it was offset by higher inventory, cash taxes and net interest, which, by the way, the latter two, I've been talking about all year long. But let's take a step back.

調整後 EBITDA 以高個位數成長。而且如我在事先準備的發言中所說，這被較高的庫存、現金稅與淨利息所抵銷；順帶一提，後兩項我整年都在談。不過我們先退一步看。

We entered this year with extreme momentum and confidence in what we guided. We guided free cash flow up about $1 billion year-to-year with record free cash flow margins. And we said that was going to be entirely driven by the quality and sustainability of the fundamentals of our business, adjusted EBITDA with some headwinds on cash tax, CapEx to invest in our business and net interest.

我們在今年一開始就帶著極強的動能，並對我們所給出的指引充滿信心。我們指引自由現金流年增約 10 億美元，並達到創紀錄的自由現金流利潤率。我們也說過，這將完全由我們業務基本面的品質與可持續性所驅動，也就是調整後 EBITDA；同時會面臨一些逆風，包括現金稅、為投資業務而增加的資本支出（CapEx）以及淨利息。

Through the first half, there are some unique dynamics that drive that free cash flow flat, which, by the way, attainment wise, we're in a very similar position that we were during the last similar point in time of z16 mainframe cycle. Right about 30% attained overall, albeit our free cash flow margins are up 300 basis points from that period of time.

在上半年，有一些獨特的動態使自由現金流持平；順帶一提，就達成進度而言，我們所處的位置與上一個類似時間點（z16 大型主機週期）非常相近。整體大約達成 30%，儘管我們的自由現金流利潤率較當時高出 300 個基點。

But the first thing, as I said in prepared remarks, given the infrastructure supply dislocation that's happening in the market, we took very conscious and proactive actions to strengthen our supply chain and address the explosive demand growth we see happening in our business around our Distributed Infrastructure, Power and Storage, which we exited the quarter with $500 million of backlog.

但第一點，如我在事先準備的發言中所說，鑑於市場上正在發生的基礎設施供應錯位，我們採取了非常有意識且主動的行動來強化供應鏈，並因應我們在分散式基礎設施、Power 與 Storage 業務所看到的爆發性需求成長；我們在季末帶著 5 億美元的積壓訂單（backlog）。

This was done at economically prudent prices with buy aheads. Our inventory exiting the first half is up $600 million year-to-year. Given the confidence we have in our guidance in the second half, we will flush through a major portion of that inventory headwind. So that will become a tailwind in the second half.

這是在經濟上審慎的價格下，透過提前採購（buy aheads）完成的。我們在上半年結束時的庫存較去年同期增加 6 億美元。基於我們對下半年指引的信心，我們將消化其中很大一部分的庫存逆風。因此，這在下半年將轉為順風。

Second, the headwinds I've been talking about all year long, CapEx and cash taxes, they were front-end loaded. So they're predominantly behind us. So where does that leave us? It leaves us with a position to have the conviction and confidence to maintain growing free cash flow, at least $1 billion, expand record free cash flow margins with free cash flow realization, important point, free cash flow realization consistent to where we were in January and throughout the year.

第二，正如我整年一直在談的逆風：資本支出與現金稅，它們是前置發生的。所以主要都已經在我們身後。那麼這讓我們處於什麼位置？這讓我們有信念與信心去維持自由現金流至少成長 10 億美元，並擴大創紀錄的自由現金流利潤率；重要的一點是，自由現金流的實現程度（realization）將與我們在 1 月以及全年所預期的一致。

That is going to be driven by the fundamentals of the adjusted EBITDA, that productivity, that operating leverage in the company. So we believe with the focused portfolio that we have with a very disciplined capital allocation, the diversity of our business models you see in our guide with a relentless focus on productivity, we drive the durability of that free cash flow engine that by the way, enables that flywheel to invest for growth.

這將由調整後 EBITDA 的基本面所驅動，也就是那個生產力、公司內部的營運槓桿。因此我們相信，憑藉我們聚焦的投資組合、非常嚴謹的資本配置、你在我們指引中看到的多元商業模式，以及對生產力的持續專注，我們能夠強化這個自由現金流引擎的韌性；順帶一提，這也讓那個飛輪得以投資以促進成長。

Thanks, Jim. So Amit, let me address the first part of your question. I have to start by first describing the nature of what it was that didn't happen. The majority of what didn't happen in the second quarter was large CapEx deals at large clients. So I had said previously that the volume or the number of those deals was in the low 10s.

謝謝，Jim。所以 Amit，讓我先回答你問題的第一部分。我必須先描述一下「沒有發生」的是什麼性質。第二季「沒有發生」的大多數，是大型客戶的大型資本支出（CapEx）交易。所以我之前說過，這類交易的量或筆數大約在 10 筆出頭。

We have been very pleased to see that about a third of those have already closed. To give you a perspective, normally, we would not expect all of them to close, but we would expect maybe two-thirds to three-fourths of them to close over the next six months. So the fact that a third already closed in the first three weeks gives us an indication not yet full evidence, but a good indication. This was deferral and not destruction.

我們很高興看到，其中大約三分之一已經成交。給你一個參考，通常我們不會預期全部都成交，但會預期在接下來六個月內大約有三分之二到四分之三會成交。所以在前三週就已有三分之一成交，這給了我們一個訊號——還不是完整的證據，但已是很好的訊號。這是延後，而不是被摧毀。

The second part that is really important. There was a lot of points, as both Jim and I pointed out in prepared remarks, where there was a lot of double-digit growth strength also. A lot of that is in the consumption part of the portfolio, and we are going to be doubling down on the demand there because the pipelines are strong and the signals from our clients are strong about where that is happening.

第二個同樣非常重要的部分是。正如 Jim 和我在事先準備的發言中指出的，也有很多地方呈現兩位數成長的強勁表現。其中很大一部分在投資組合的「按使用量/消耗」部分（consumption），而我們會在那裡加倍投入需求開發，因為管線很強，而且客戶給我們的訊號也很強，顯示需求正在那裡發生。

So when I couple that together, those, I'll call them factoids, together with what we are seeing in our pipelines, together with what we are seeing in terms of signals from clients in terms of what they're purchasing and putting in, then I come to the conclusion that a lot of the demand is deferred, not destroyed, albeit it's sometimes hard to predict exact timing on a month-to-month basis. But the fact that a third of those deals closed is a strong signal. In terms of what are the milestones that we expect of the KPIs, I'm going to ask Jim to comment on that.

所以當我把這些——我姑且稱之為一些事實片段——與我們在管線中看到的情況、以及我們從客戶訊號中看到他們正在採購與導入的內容結合起來，我就得出結論：很多需求是延後，而不是被摧毀；儘管有時很難按月精準預測時點。但其中三分之一交易已成交，是一個強烈訊號。至於我們預期的里程碑與 KPI 是什麼，我請 Jim 來評論。

Yes. I think it's plain and simple. Arvind has been running this company for the last six years around two key components of KPIs. We just talked about one, free cash flow because that's the engine that provides the financial flexibility for growth. The first is revenue growth. We've taken this company from a no-growth company to a low single-digit company to a mid-single-digit company, and our future aspirations have always been to continue to increase.

是的。我認為這很簡單明瞭。Arvind 在過去六年經營這家公司，圍繞著兩個關鍵 KPI。我們剛談到其中一個：自由現金流，因為那是提供成長所需財務彈性的引擎。第一個是營收成長。我們已把這家公司從一家零成長的公司，變成低個位數成長，再到中個位數成長，而我們未來的目標一直是持續提高。

So the first thing is we just posted 1% revenue growth in 2Q. The first indicator, we have to show acceleration as we get into the second half of the year. Our guidance range, 4% to 5% should be noted right upfront. That low end of the range we put in as an anchor, an anchor so that we can show the investment community, the level of productivity and operating leverage we have in this company that allows us to maintain earnings and maintain free cash flow at that low level.

所以第一件事是，我們在第二季（2Q）剛公布營收成長 1%。第一個指標是，隨著進入下半年，我們必須展現加速成長。我們的指引區間 4% 到 5% 必須一開始就先說清楚。我們把區間的低端放進來作為一個錨點（anchor），用來向投資社群展示：本公司具備的生產力與營運槓桿，使我們即使在那樣的低成長水準下，仍能維持獲利並維持自由現金流。

That low level says we take a business that just produced 1%, up to mid-single digits, give or take, in the second half. That's not our aspiration. But that's an anchor as a range on how we put this in place. The high end, that 5%, that says we accelerate growth into the second half overall. Now two key components, KPIs underneath that, I would venture to say getting right back at the core second quarter.

那個低端水準代表：把一個剛產出 1% 成長的業務，在下半年拉升到約中個位數成長（上下些許浮動）。那不是我們的追求。但那是我們設定這個區間時所採用的錨點。高端，也就是 5%，代表我們在整體下半年加速成長。接著有兩個關鍵構成要素，也就是其下的 KPI，我認為都直接回到第二季的核心。

Number one, the strength and confidence we have in our mainframe platform cycle if we can maintain this at a high 120%-plus program-to-program, that is a tremendous indicator that will lead us to the high end of that guide range.

第一，我們對主機（mainframe）平台週期的強度與信心：如果我們能把每一代對上一代（program-to-program）的比率維持在 120% 以上的高水準，這將是一個非常強的指標，並會引導我們達到該指引區間的高端。

The second is our software. And that software, when you look at it at the high end of the range at 8%, that is the second half that's approaching double digits. Based on what Arvind said, the strength of our 80% high-value recurring revenue accelerating and a return to some normal level of closure rates of a strong pipeline in the second half. So those are two KPIs.

第二是我們的軟體。而軟體方面，若看區間高端的 8%，那代表下半年將接近雙位數成長。依據 Arvind 所說，這來自於我們 80% 高價值經常性收入的加速，以及下半年強勁管線回到較正常的結案率水準。所以這就是兩個 KPI。

Operator, let's take the next question.

接線員，請進下一個問題。

Brent Thill, Jefferies.

Jefferies 的 Brent Thill。

Jim, I just want to go through the guidance for the rest of the year. So your prior guide was 5-plus percent. You're guiding now 4% to 5%. If you take a 1-point guide to the cut to the guide, I think it's like $650 million. You missed Q1 by approximately $675 million. So that just assumes that some of the slip deals aren't coming back yet. Arvind said that some of those deals have closed. Can you just kind of square up the guide to what this means?

Jim，我想把今年剩餘期間的指引再走一遍。你們先前的指引是 5% 以上。現在你們給的是 4% 到 5%。如果把指引下修 1 個百分點來看，我想大概是 6.5 億美元。你們第一季大約少了 6.75 億美元。所以這等於假設有些延後的案子還沒有回來。Arvind 說其中一些案子已經結案。你能不能把指引和這代表的意涵對起來說明一下？

Absolutely, Brent. Thanks for the question. Let me just frame the components about the guide overall. One, we said revenue guide now, 4% to 5%. On the low end, it's about 1 point plus takedown. On the high end, give or take, it's pretty damn close to where we were at. I talked about maintaining free cash flow in either case because we have built this around prudently the low end of the range to show the operating leverage and productivity and by the way, the investment capacity we have in the company to drive that level of profit, that level of cash, which, by the way, both will be in high single-digit level overall with record margins.

當然可以，Brent。謝謝你的問題。我先把整體指引的構成要素框架一下。第一，我們現在的營收指引是 4% 到 5%。在低端，大約是下修 1 個百分點多一點。在高端，坦白說，基本上非常接近我們原先的位置。我提到無論哪種情境我們都能維持自由現金流，因為我們是以審慎方式、圍繞區間低端來建構，藉此展現營運槓桿與生產力，以及順帶一提，我們在公司內部具備的投資能力，能推動那樣的獲利水準與現金水準；而且兩者整體都會落在高個位數水準，並伴隨創紀錄的利潤率。

And that basically says we're taking up our operating pretax margins by 100 basis points. But let's unpack the 4% to 5%. Number one, underneath it, we see tremendous momentum playing out in infrastructure overall. That infrastructure guide 90 days ago, we said was going to be down low to mid-single digit. coming out of first half, given the mainframe, albeit fell short, the mainframe is still at 129%, 130% of the prior program.

而這基本上表示我們把營運稅前利潤率提高 100 個基點。但我們來拆解 4% 到 5%。第一，在其下，我們看到整體基礎設施（infrastructure）動能非常強。90 天前我們對基礎設施的指引是：在上半年結束後，將呈現低到中個位數下滑；考量主機雖然未達預期，但主機仍達到前一代產品的 129%、130%。

It assumes the confidence that we see in all the demand indicators, and we can get into that later, that we maintain that level and that we continue to see the tremendous growth opportunity that we have prudently protected the supply chain to optimize on Distributed Infrastructure. So guide to guide, we're up about 2 points there.

這也反映我們對所有需求指標所看到的信心（之後可以再深入），也就是我們能維持那個水準，並且我們仍看到龐大的成長機會；同時我們也以審慎方式保護供應鏈，以便在分散式基礎設施（Distributed Infrastructure）上達到最佳化。因此就指引對指引來看，這部分我們上調約 2 個百分點。

In software, 6% to 8% for the year, the lower end was an anchor. That says nothing changes, and I'll get into that in a minute. The high end says that we basically are approaching double digits in the second half. So let me break down those two because we can get into Consulting later, there's basically no change there. When you take a look at the scenarios that we ran on software, one, as I talked about in prepared remarks, we -- and we think this is a competitive differentiation.

在軟體方面，全年 6% 到 8%，低端是一個錨點。那代表在那個情境下，沒有任何改變——我等一下會說明。高端則代表我們在下半年基本上接近雙位數成長。我先拆解這兩塊，因為顧問（Consulting）我們稍後可以再談，那邊基本上沒有變化。當你看我們對軟體所跑的各種情境時，第一，如同我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們——而且我們認為這是一項競爭差異化。

We have a software portfolio that plays at the heart of infrastructure software that we allow our clients flexibility in how they want to buy. They could buy perpetual license models, they can buy subscription models, they can buy consumption models. And albeit although it's a very small percentage, we offer SaaS-based components, right?

我們擁有一個位於基礎設施軟體核心的軟體產品組合，讓客戶在採購方式上有彈性。他們可以買永久授權（perpetual license）模式，也可以買訂閱（subscription）模式，也可以買用量計費（consumption）模式。此外，雖然占比很小，我們也提供以 SaaS 為基礎的組件，對吧？

Underneath that, we have -- our business is roughly 80-20, 80% high-value recurring revenue, and that is think of our portfolio, Red Hat subscriptions, our acquisitions that are mostly subscription consumption base, our Gen AI portfolio and WatsonX and parts of our data automation portfolio that operate on consumption models.

在此之下，我們的業務大約是 80/20：80% 是高價值的經常性收入；你可以把它想成我們的產品組合——Red Hat 訂閱、我們多數以訂閱/用量計費為主的併購項目、我們的 Gen AI 產品組合與 watsonx，以及我們資料自動化產品組合中以用量計費模式運作的部分。

Our remaining 20%, that's the piece, transactional revenue that leverages perpetual license sales, enterprise license agreements that is our mainframe moat and incumbency provides tremendous value to IBM because it creates that multiplier effect I always talk about with every dollar of hardware revenue we land, we get $3 plus of software with long-term commitments. Now how do we construct the ranges?

剩下的 20% 是那一塊交易型收入，主要來自永久授權銷售、企業授權協議；這是我們主機護城河與既有客戶基礎所帶來的優勢，對 IBM 具有極大價值，因為它創造了我常說的乘數效應：我們每拿下一美元的硬體營收，就能帶來 3 美元以上、具長期承諾的軟體收入。那我們如何建構這些區間？

On the high end, at 8%, we said that, that 80% revenue, we see continuing accelerate. We accelerated from 7% in the first quarter, 8% in the second quarter, and we see this going to about 10% in the second half. That is good acceleration, and that talks to the value and innovation we bring to clients in that part of the portfolio.

在高端 8% 的情境下，我們的看法是：那 80% 的收入會持續加速。我們已從第一季的 7% 加速到第二季的 8%，而我們預期下半年會到約 10%。這是很好的加速，也反映我們在該產品組合部分為客戶帶來的價值與創新。

In the transactional piece of the business, make it very clear, the second quarter slip deals we have, by the way, typically, we only close about 75%. Arvind stated already in three weeks, we're about one-third, 40% already closed of those deals. Our high-end range says we close all of them, which, by the way, we haven't really lost maybe one of the deals, maybe two, but we close all those deals.

在交易型業務那一塊，我要講得非常清楚：第二季延後的案子，順帶一提，通常我們最終只會結案約 75%。Arvind 已經提到，三週內，我們大約已有三分之一、約 40% 的案子結案。我們的高端區間假設是：全部都結案；而且坦白說，我們其實可能只真正失去一筆案子，也許兩筆，但我們把那些案子全部結掉。

Then we've taken a look at all of our demand indicators, propensity to buy models, our pipeline closure rates. We entered the second half with a relatively robust net new business pipeline that's growing double digits. We have, Brent, to your question, we've taken a discount off of our traditional historical -- that's why we're sitting at 8%.

接著我們檢視了所有需求指標、購買傾向模型（propensity to buy models）、以及我們的管線結案率。我們以相對強勁的新增業務淨管線進入下半年，該管線以雙位數成長。Brent，回到你的問題，我們相對於傳統歷史水準做了折扣——這也是為什麼我們落在 8%。

I think that's prudent. But back to Amit's question, the KPIs will tell how we finish third quarter, how we get in the fourth. The low end of the range, like I said, I can't stress -- it's the anchor to get profit and cash stable to our last guide and maintain that level of profitability. That basically assumes we get modest acceleration in our high-value recurring revenue and our 20% transactional, we see similar buying behavior in yields, right?

我認為這是審慎的。但回到 Amit 的問題，KPI 會告訴我們第三季如何收尾、以及第四季如何展開。至於區間低端，如我所說，我再怎麼強調都不為過——那是錨點，用來讓獲利與現金相較於我們上一版指引保持穩定，並維持那樣的獲利能力水準。這基本上假設：我們的高價值經常性收入會有溫和加速，而 20% 的交易型部分，我們會看到類似的購買行為與轉換率（yields），對吧？

That's not what we're seeing here, but we're basing our framework of our business model so we can drive the right management actions, the right level of productivity to create incremental financial flexibility to go invest to capture that growth opportunity. Hopefully, that helps you.

但我們在這裡看到的並不是那樣；我們是在建立我們商業模式的框架，以便推動正確的管理行動、達到適當的生產力水準，創造額外的財務彈性，進而投入資金把握那個成長機會。希望這能對你有所幫助。

Operator, we'll take the next question.

接線員，我們來接下一個問題。

Ben Reitzes, Melius Research.

Ben Reitzes，Melius Research。

I first just wanted to see if you guys could clarify -- there's two lines that are really bothering folks in the guidance. It's TPP and then the mainframe and how you're going to improve from negative 9% and negative 42%. I think if you could explain that, that will make us feel a lot better about the 4% to 5%.

我首先想請你們澄清一下——指引裡有兩條線真的讓大家很困擾。一個是 TPP，另一個是大型主機，以及你們要如何從負 9% 和負 42% 改善。我想如果你們能解釋清楚，大家對 4% 到 5% 會安心很多。

And then, Arvind, this is a question for you is what do you -- are you still looking for double-digit growth in software long term? Do you still think you have this kind of portfolio? Or does the transactional stuff keep you from having like a 10% long-term guide for software and what you saw in the quarter?

然後，Arvind，這個問題是問你：長期來看，你們是否仍然在軟體方面追求兩位數成長？你仍然認為你們擁有這樣的產品組合嗎？還是說交易型（transactional）的部分會讓你們無法給出像軟體長期 10% 這樣的指引，以及你們在本季看到的情況？

Yes. Ben, thanks for the question. Let me actually address your question first. We and I have complete conviction in the double-digit long-term software growth. Let me be clear about that. As you heard Jim describe, 80% of our business is already -- I'll use the word annuity or in some sense, subscription-based. That piece, we have grown from extremely low numbers.

是的。Ben，謝謝你的問題。我先回答你這個問題。我們——以及我——對軟體長期兩位數成長有完全的信心。我想把這點講清楚。如同你聽到 Jim 所描述的，我們 80% 的業務已經——我會用「年金型」這個詞，或某種意義上是以訂閱為基礎。這一塊，我們是從非常低的數字一路成長上來的。

I would say it was low single digit seven years ago to 8% and approaching 10%. We already got that there. We have a few different paths on how to get to 10%, not just one. We can keep growing that part faster, and that can approach not just 10%, but above 10%. That means that the other 20% has to grow smaller. By the way, every single year, that mix of 80-20 used to be 60-40.

我會說七年前還是低個位數，現在到 8%，並且接近 10%。我們已經做到這一步了。我們有幾條不同的路徑可以達到 10%，不只一條。我們可以讓那一部分持續更快成長，並且不只是接近 10%，而是超過 10%。這也意味著另外 20% 的部分占比必須變小。順帶一提，每一年，這個 80-20 的組合以前其實是 60-40。

So as we go over time, that mix is going to climb up and more and more is annuity as opposed to transactional. And both organically and inorganically, we are investing in capabilities that are much higher growth than this mix. We are investing in capabilities that grow more at 15% to 20%. So that helps that overall growth rate.

因此隨著時間推進，這個組合會持續上升，越來越多會是年金型，而不是交易型。而且無論是有機或無機，我們都在投資於成長性遠高於這個組合的能力。我們投資的能力，其成長率更接近 15% 到 20%。因此這會帶動整體成長率。

As an example, we brought Harshi in, and we accelerated it we brought Confluent in and we accelerated it. Our organic WatsonX portfolio is also growing at much higher rates than the aggregate. So that is the point that we are going to and we are not going to back off from our commitment of long-term double-digit for software despite the 2Q hiccup. And I'll let Jim comment on the TP and mainframe growth rates, including the cycles that we see there.

例如，我們把 Harshi 延攬進來，並加速推進；我們把 Confluent 納入並加速推進。我們自有的 WatsonX 產品組合，其成長率也遠高於整體平均。所以重點是：儘管第二季有個小插曲，我們仍會堅持對軟體長期兩位數成長的承諾，不會退縮。至於 TP 與大型主機的成長率，包括我們看到的週期，我讓 Jim 來補充說明。

Yes. The questions kind of go together, right? Because we run this as a same-frame stack platform economic multipliers we talk about. Every dollar we land on mainframe, we get $3 plus a software. Mainframe overall, yes, down 42%. It's off a 70% growth last year in the launch quarter overall. If you look at the historical seasonality of mainframe, it's always down in the fifth quarter as we wrap around the launch.

是的。這些問題其實是連在一起的，對吧？因為我們是以同一平台堆疊（same-frame stack）的經濟乘數來運作，我們也常談到這點。我們在大型主機上每落地 1 美元，就能帶來 3 美元以上的軟體收入。大型主機整體，是的，下滑 42%。但那是因為去年在發佈季度整體成長了 70% 的高基期。如果你看大型主機的歷史季節性，在我們繞回發佈後的第五個季度時，通常都會下滑。

Now with that said, I think we were very open, transparent. It was below our expectations. But with that said, let me put this in perspective. One, we're still at nearly 130%, a record across the history of IBM of a program to program. Put that in dollar figures.

話雖如此，我想我們一直都很公開、很透明。確實低於我們的預期。但即便如此，讓我把它放在一個更大的脈絡來看。第一，我們仍接近 130%，這在 IBM 歷史上以「一代對一代」（program to program）來看是創紀錄的。把它換算成金額。

From our most successful program P16 to now P17 five quarters in, -- we're at nearly 130%. That is $1 billion more of mainframe revenue. That is $3-plus billion more of software stack on top of that versus where we were at a similar point in time in the z16 cycle. And I would tell you that's the value that we bring around innovation in mainframe, unmatched in terms of reliability, security, resiliency, scalability, AI on the chip. That's why the mainframe handles over 70% of the world's transaction volumes in terms of value, 140 million MIPS in the marketplace that we run core mission-critical systems across every industry top 50 banks, 4 to 5 top airlines, 7 of the top 10 retailers, over 70% of the Fortune 100 run on mainframe.

從我們最成功的 P16 計畫到現在的 P17，進入第五個季度——我們接近 130%。這代表大型主機營收多了 10 億美元。相較於 z16 週期在相同時間點，我們在其上層的軟體堆疊多了 30 多億美元。我會告訴你，這就是我們在大型主機創新上帶來的價值：在可靠性、安全性、韌性、可擴展性，以及晶片上的 AI 方面無可匹敵。這也是為什麼大型主機按價值計算處理了全球超過 70% 的交易量；市場上有 1.4 億 MIPS，我們在各行各業運行核心關鍵任務系統——前 50 大銀行、前 4 到 5 大航空公司、前 10 大零售商中的 7 家，以及《財富》100 強中超過 70% 都在大型主機上運行。

Now Ben, to your question, how do we get confidence because our guide says we stay at the high 120-plus percent throughout 2026 overall. We have looked at key indicators, installed base, upgrade cycles, propensity models, but what drives demand and purchasing requirement in mainframe?

那麼 Ben，回到你的問題：我們如何建立信心，因為我們的指引說到 2026 年整體都會維持在 120% 高段、甚至 120% 以上。我們已經看過關鍵指標：裝機基礎、升級週期、傾向性模型；但到底是什麼驅動大型主機的需求與採購需求？

I would boil it down to three areas - one, capacity workload. It's the most important determinant. 85% of the installed MIPS capacity out there in the marketplace today, running all those core mission-critical workloads are either stable or growing. Clients are adding capacity and workload to mainframe, the viability.

我會把它歸納為三個面向——第一，容量與工作負載。這是最重要的決定因素。當今市場上已安裝的 MIPS 容量中，有 85% 正在運行那些核心關鍵任務工作負載，而這些工作負載不是持平就是在成長。客戶正在為大型主機增加容量與工作負載，這證明其可行性。

And by the way, that's coming in new AI workloads, analytics workloads, Linux-based workloads. And those MIPS are growing program to date over 15% to 20% installed capacity. So that's number one. Two, economic factors. We don't talk a lot about this, but I think it's important for our investors to understand things like TCO total cost of ownership, consolidation, lease propensity.

而且順帶一提，這些新增包括新的 AI 工作負載、分析工作負載、以 Linux 為基礎的工作負載。就「計畫迄今」（program to date）而言，這些 MIPS 的已安裝容量成長超過 15% 到 20%。所以這是第一點。第二，經濟因素。我們不常談這個，但我認為投資人理解像是 TCO（總持有成本）、整合、租賃傾向等因素很重要。

Depending on the size and complexity of the workload, we have anywhere from a 2 times to a 15 times TCO advantage running on the mainframe. That's why Arvind said in the prepared remarks, we do not see any evidence of clients migrating off mainframe. And lease propensity, which is a great indicator we're actually in a very nice sweet spot as we enter second half from an upgrade.

視工作負載的規模與複雜度而定，在大型主機上運行，我們在 TCO 上有 2 倍到 15 倍的優勢。這也是為什麼 Arvind 在事先準備的發言中說，我們沒有看到任何客戶從大型主機遷移出去的證據。至於租賃傾向，這是一個很好的指標；當我們從升級角度進入下半年時，實際上正處於一個非常理想的甜蜜點。

And then finally, AI-driven value. When you look at it, applications data security all on the platform. We do $450 billion inferences per day at 1 millisecond with 8 9s availability. We've got clients that have already purchased over 50% of our Spyre inferencing. And those clients that have purchased that are growing MIPS capacity, the way we monetize value by over 3 times faster than others.

最後，AI 驅動的價值。你看，應用程式、資料、安全性都在同一平台上。我們每天可在 1 毫秒內完成 4,500 億次推論，並達到 8 個 9 的可用性。我們已有客戶購買了超過 50% 的 Spyre 推論產品。而購買了這些的客戶，其 MIPS 容量正在成長；我們將價值變現的方式，比其他人快 3 倍以上。

So then you get to -- the reason I went through that on mainframe, how do you monetize the value of that 3x multiplier in TP. The more capacity that's in the marketplace the more monetization opportunity, the more price opportunity, the more value creation opportunity.

接著就回到——我之所以把大型主機講這麼完整，是因為要說明：你如何在 TP 中把那個 3 倍乘數的價值變現。市場上的容量越多，變現機會就越大；定價機會越多；創造價值的機會也越多。

That performance, we have all the confidence in the world and Z in the second half. But when we look at in the models that we have done, given how much MIPS capacity is out there, the first thing that we should all remember, that is a great future indicator, a monetization and revenue growth opportunity for us to go capitalize on that.

那樣的表現，我們對下半年以及 Z 都充滿信心。但當我們回頭看我們所做的模型，考量到外部有多少 MIPS 容量，大家首先都應該記住的一點是：這是一個很好的未來指標，代表我們可以去把握的變現與營收成長機會。

The key question becomes timing. And when you look at it, unlike the high-value innovation we bring in many of our data, automation, et cetera. The client has capability around their purchases of MLC, they could run on an OpEx model without doing a big purchase for three years for quite some time. But eventually, that technology upgrade cycle catches them and it moves in IBM's favor, and the economics, as you can imagine, the price differential moves in IBM's favor.

關鍵問題在於時點。而當你看這件事時，與我們在許多資料、自动化等領域帶來的高價值創新不同，客戶在其 MLC 採購上有一定的彈性，他們可以用 OpEx 模式運行，而不必每三年做一次大額採購，並且可以維持相當一段時間。但最終，那個技術升級週期會追上他們，並轉而有利於 IBM；而且如你所想像，價格差異的經濟性也會轉而有利於 IBM。

So when you look at that, we have all the confidence in the world around a growth vector of TP. But when we look at the guidance in the second half, I think prudently, when we're looking at 6% to 8%, 6% being the anchor, 8% approaching double digits in the second half, -- we've got TP down low single digits to mid-single digits overall because we're going to look at that as a 2027 growth vector opportunity for us.

所以當你看這一點時，我們對 TP 的成長向量充滿信心。但當我們看下半年的指引時，我認為審慎起見，當我們看 6% 到 8%（以 6% 為錨、8% 接近下半年雙位數）時，— 我們把 TP 整體下修到低個位數到中個位數的下滑，因為我們會把它視為 2027 年的成長向量機會。

Operator, let's take the next question.

接線員，請進下一個問題。

Fatima Boolani, Citi.

Citi 的 Fatima Boolani。

Arvind, this is a question for you, and I want to flip the -- some of the commentary on its head a little bit. So clearly, 11th hour, you had the deal slippage on the 10 of the large deals. It's very encouraging to hear that you've been able to recoup and recapture these deals in such a short amount of time into the third quarter.

Arvind，這個問題想請教你，我想把—部分評論稍微反過來看。很明顯，在最後關頭，你們有 10 筆大型交易出現延後。很令人鼓舞的是，聽到你們能在這麼短的時間內，在第三季把這些交易追回、重新拿回來。

So what I wanted to ask you, what exactly changed in the last three to four weeks that catalyzed pushing some of these large transactions that did slip to a successful finish line? And were there any internal or IBM-specific efforts or initiatives that you maybe took a more assertive stance with to recapture these transactions?

所以我想問的是，過去三到四週到底發生了什麼變化，促使這些原本延後的大型交易得以推進並成功落地？是否有任何內部或 IBM 特定的努力或倡議，讓你們採取了更積極的立場來重新拿回這些交易？

And as a follow-up, Jim just mentioned and you also mentioned this in your prepared remarks, 85% of the installed MIPS capacity is still stable to growing in your installed base. So conversely, what is actually happening to the 15% that is not stable to growing?

另外追問一下，Jim 剛提到、你在事先準備的發言中也提到，你們已安裝的 MIPS 容量中有 85% 仍然是穩定到成長的。那反過來說，那 15% 並非穩定到成長的部分，實際上發生了什麼事？

Yes. So Fatima, thanks for the question. And let's talk about this a little bit. So first, it's important to understand why this slipped? I actually believe that even our clients had every intention until about a month before that they were going to consummate these deals.

是的。Fatima，謝謝你的問題。我們來稍微談一下。首先，理解為什麼會延後很重要。我其實相信，即使是我們的客戶，在大約一個月前之前，都仍然完全有意願要完成這些交易。

You can imagine, we do have a lot of discipline, and we do a lot of work to make sure it's a good business case, budgets exist, et cetera. I think that our clients themselves had not really thought through that some of the alternate purchase they were doing were increasing 30% in dollar value quarter-to-quarter. When they were faced with that issue, then they decided to move budget to those areas where they were having that extreme price.

你可以想像，我們確實非常自律，也做了大量工作以確保商業案例成立、預算到位等等。我認為客戶自己其實沒有真正想清楚，他們正在進行的一些替代性採購，其美元金額在季度之間增加了 30%。當他們面對這個問題時，他們就決定把預算移到那些價格漲幅極端的領域。

Now as we have gone through and done, we have actually held our price so far in the month of July. We have not taken increases. I think that our teams are a bit more reluctant and less aggressive than others in portraying some of those increases in hardware that are coming into the market.

而當我們一路走過來、也做了相關工作後，事實上我們在 7 月份到目前為止都維持了我們的價格。我們沒有調漲。我認為相較於其他人，我們的團隊在呈現市場上硬體即將出現的那些漲價時，更為保守、也沒那麼積極。

As they become more aware that they cannot hold these prices for more than a few weeks, then that itself is going to make an impact when we play into that part as well, albeit we are nowhere near as aggressive as some of the alternate infrastructure providers.

當他們越來越意識到，他們不可能把這些價格撐超過幾週時，這件事本身也會在我們參與其中時產生影響，儘管我們遠沒有某些替代性基礎設施供應商那麼激進。

Now on the software side, that becomes coupled onto that hardware purchase because they definitely want to leverage that hardware that they're getting from us, and then they will couple the software purchases into it. But I actually believe that the biggest part is the deferred it and then they realized, but this is mission critical.

接著在軟體端，這會與那筆硬體採購綁在一起，因為他們確實想要充分利用從我們這裡買到的硬體，然後就會把軟體採購一起搭配進來。但我其實認為最大的一部分是：他們先延後了，然後才意識到這是關鍵任務。

All I'm doing is taking on tech debt. I better actually act on this once they kind of got over the compression of time they were in the end of the quarter and said, I don't really want to get into tech debt on a platform that I'm keeping for the long term. So if I'm not going to do that, then I've got to go find the money and get this done. And so my teams can go get the work done and give us all of those abilities that Jim talked about so eloquently in the last question of the innovation we do both on Z and in other platforms.

我所做的一切其實只是在累積技術債。一旦他們度過了季末那種時間被壓縮的狀態，就會說：我其實不想在一個我打算長期保留的平台上累積技術債。所以如果我不打算那樣做，那我就得去把錢找出來把這件事做完。如此一來，我的團隊就能把工作完成，並帶給我們 Jim 在上一個問題中非常精闢談到的那些能力—也就是我們在 Z 以及其他平台上所做的創新。

Let's take the next question, operator.

接線員，請進下一個問題。

Erik Woodring, Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley 的 Erik Woodring。

So Arvind, I want to touch on the data segment within software. And specifically, I think if you take your really bullish comments on Confluent accelerating you get to organic data revenue growth that was down year-over-year, maybe mid-single digits in the second quarter.

Arvind，我想談一下軟體中的資料（data）分部。具體來說，如果把你對 Confluent 加速的非常看多的評論納入考量，你會得到資料的有機營收成長其實是年對年下滑的，可能在第二季是中個位數的下滑。

And that just stands out from the rest of the portfolio, the non-TP portfolio. So can you maybe just help us better understand exactly why that kind of organic data part underperformed the rest of non-TPsoftware? And why IBM's data software of all things maybe got deprioritized this specific quarter, this early in the AI build-out.

而這點在整個投資組合中、在非 TP 的投資組合裡特別顯眼。所以你能否幫我們更好地理解，為什麼那一塊有機的 data 表現會落後於其他非 TP 軟體？以及為什麼在 AI 建置這麼早期的階段，IBM 的資料軟體反而在這一季似乎被降低優先順序？

Erik, thanks for the question. First, let's understand, as we said, in aggregate, about 400 to 500 of the miss was in software overall. And when we think of those large CapEx deals, while it is majority, but I think majority is being 50% to 60% TP software. There is a lot of data also in there. It actually has less of automation because a lot of the automation portfolio has already moved to being subscription base with things like Hrashi and Apptio.

Erik，謝謝你的問題。首先我們先理解一下，如同我們所說，整體而言，大約有 4 億到 5 億的落差是在整體軟體上。當我們想到那些大型 CapEx 交易時，雖然它是主要原因，但我所說的主要是指其中有 50% 到 60% 是 TP 軟體。其中也包含很多 data。自動化（automation）反而比較少，因為自動化產品組合中有很大一部分已經轉為訂閱制，例如 Hrashi 和 Apptio 這類。

So as we think of that, data takes what I would call maybe the run by shooting. So in the run by shooting, data gets hurt because people are buying less of it, and that impacts that. Now if I take the next 12 months and if I look at what both talked about and where we see the demand signals, I fully expect data to perform well and to give us that tailwind that we are wanting there.

所以當我們這樣看時，data 會承受我所謂的「掃射式」影響。在這種掃射式影響下，data 會受傷，因為人們買得更少，這就影響了表現。但如果我看接下來 12 個月，並看我們所談到的內容以及我們看到的需求訊號，我完全預期 data 會表現良好，並帶給我們所期待的那股順風。

Also at the end of the day, clients have a certain number of dollars. So if Confluent looks more attractive than other things, they are going to buy more of what is the thing that gives them the most near-term value and we are fine with that.

此外，說到底，客戶手上就只有一定數量的預算。所以如果 Confluent 看起來比其他東西更有吸引力，他們就會多買一些能在短期內帶來最大價值的東西，而我們也能接受。

It gives us incumbency, it gives us a footprint and we can go back in there in the next quarter and the quarter after to get other things in case that there is an aggregate budget pressure. After all, we do have a large share of wallet at many of these clients. So there is a question of how much they will spend here, but I fully expect that we will do well in the data portfolio.

這讓我們取得既有優勢（incumbency），也讓我們有落地的足跡；如果整體預算有壓力，我們可以在下一季、再下一季回到那裡，把其他東西也帶進去。畢竟，我們在許多這些客戶那裡確實擁有很高的錢包份額（share of wallet）。所以問題在於他們會在這裡花多少，但我完全預期我們在 data 產品組合上會做得很好。

Operator, let's take one last question.

接線員，讓我們再回答最後一個問題。

Matt Swanson, RBC.

Matt Swanson，RBC。

Great. Arvind, you've been really deliberate about the areas of security that you've invested in over the last few years. When we're looking at Project Lightwell. Could you just talk about, I guess, post MFOs, kind of the breakdown, one, how big of an opportunity this is? -- as obviously an area open source, you have a lot of expertise but also how important solutions in this area in general are for you as the largest enterprise provider of open source software but kind of protecting the ecosystem you guys have worked so hard to build out.

很好。Arvind，你在過去幾年對安全領域的投資方向一直非常審慎且有計畫。當我們看 Project Lightwell 的時候。你能否談談，我想是指在 MFO 之後，大致的拆解：第一，這會是多大的機會？——顯然在開源這一塊你們有很多專業，但也想請你談談，對你們而言，這個領域的解決方案整體有多重要；畢竟你們是最大的企業級開源軟體供應商，同時也需要保護你們辛苦建立起來的生態系。

Yes. So Matt, thank you. Look, if I look at this first, let's step back and look at open source versus proprietary. If I look at the amount of running code out there, I would pause it to you that open source is now larger than all proprietary code in terms of the volume of software that is there.

是的。Matt，謝謝你。你看，如果我先從這裡看，我們先退一步，看看開源與專有軟體。如果看外面正在運行的程式碼量，我想請你留意：就現有軟體的總量而言，開源現在已經比所有專有程式碼加總還要大。

At the same time, the number of people who have been able to commercialize it or monetize it is limited. I think also, Matt, we should be careful. We say that, but a lot of the hyperscalers, a lot of the infrastructure out there does actually run on open source, albeit with modifications by those providers. So now the question comes, open source is quite good at remedying the last version, maybe the version minus 1, but those movements sort of 6-month cycles. Once an enterprise is getting value from an application, that tends to run for 7 to 10 years.

同時，能夠把它商業化或變現的人數其實有限。我也認為，Matt，我們要小心。我們這麼說，但很多超大規模雲端業者、很多基礎設施其實確實是跑在開源之上，只是那些供應商做了修改。所以問題就來了：開源很擅長修補最新版本，或許是倒數第二個版本，但那些更新節奏大概是 6 個月一個週期。一旦企業從某個應用程式取得價值，那通常會運行 7 到 10 年。

We looked at this historically, and we said that is a place that we want to go play. five years ago, it would have required an army of people to be able to go do it. You would have required people with expertise in each of those pieces of open source. You would have had to build those build environments. You had to keep those committers engaged and productive.

我們從歷史角度看這件事，並且說這是我們想要投入的領域。五年前，要做到這件事需要一支龐大的團隊。你需要在每一個開源元件上都有專家。你得建立那些建置環境。你還必須讓那些提交者（committers）保持投入並維持產出。

And so you look at that and you say, not clear that there is an economic return. So the same tools that are being used to attack all code, both proprietary and open source can also be used to effectively be those experts and build those out. So what we did was we built kind of a factory using AI models to be able to patch open source, even when it is not one that we have human expertise in.

所以你看著這些就會說，經濟回報並不明確。但用來攻擊所有程式碼（不論專有或開源）的同一套工具，也可以用來有效地扮演那些專家並把這些能力建起來。因此我們做的是：用 AI 模型打造一種「工廠」，即使是我們沒有人工專長的開源專案，也能進行修補。

But as we do that, we're actually not patching it. We are running test harnesses against it. We've been able to evaluate it in the environment that our clients need and want, so we can do all of that. Your question on what is the addressable opportunity?

但當我們這麼做時，我們其實不只是修補。我們會對它跑測試框架（test harnesses）。我們已經能在客戶需要且想要的環境中進行評估，所以這些都能做到。你問到可觸及的機會有多大？

Look, this is early days. How about if I characterize it, we believe that it's in the multiple billions of dollars whether it turned out to be that the TAM for the open source protection here is 5 or 10 or 15, it's in that range of billions of dollars. And here, I will tell you, we are going to measure ourselves in terms of how many hundreds of clients we can get signed up over the first many months.

你看，這還在早期。如果要我描述，我們相信這會是數十億美元的規模；不論最後開源保護這塊的 TAM 是 50 億、100 億或 150 億美元，都會落在數十億美元的區間。而在這裡我想說，我們會用未來最初幾個月能簽下多少「數百家」客戶來衡量自己。

That is how aggressive we want to get, and we believe that, that becomes a flywheel that multiplies because as we get more and more clients signed up, we learn a lot more also about what they want as remedies. And as we learn what they want as remedies that makes our network effect on this grow more and more.

這就是我們想要推進的積極程度；我們相信這會形成一個飛輪效應並帶來倍增，因為隨著簽下越來越多客戶，我們也會更了解他們想要什麼樣的補救措施。而當我們更了解他們想要的補救措施時，我們在這件事上的網路效應就會越來越強。

Let's remember, we put out 7,500 packages of remediations in the first three weeks. We believe, by the way, that's not counting the 30,000 packages we already do with Linux and Harshi and Confluent and Kubernetes and OpenShift, et cetera. So in aggregate, we believe that this is a multiple billion dollar opportunity, which we're going to go after really fast and hard, leveraging expertise in AI and open source both.

別忘了，我們在前三週就推出了 7,500 個修復套件。順帶一提，這還不包含我們在 Linux、Harshi、Confluent、Kubernetes、OpenShift 等等上原本就已經在做的 30,000 個套件。所以整體而言，我們相信這是一個數十億美元的機會，我們會非常快速且強力地去追逐，同時運用 AI 與開源兩方面的專業。

So Look, thank you all for these questions. I thought it's very fair and very appropriate questioning. Is the business coming back? Is the cash flow there, how are you going to grow in the various parts, what's your long-term commitment? How strong is the mainframe incumbency.

所以，各位，謝謝你們提出這些問題。我認為這些提問非常公允，也非常恰當。業務是否正在回升？現金流是否到位？你們要如何在各個部分成長？你們的長期承諾是什麼？大型主機（mainframe）的既有優勢有多強。

So I do really thank you all on these questions. We remain confident in the growth opportunities ahead of us and the actions we are taking to improve execution. I look forward to sharing our progress with you as we move through the rest of the year.

所以我真的很感謝大家的這些問題。我們仍然對眼前的成長機會以及我們為改善執行力所採取的行動充滿信心。在今年剩下的時間裡，我也期待能與各位分享我們的進展。

Thank you, Arvind. Operator, let me turn it back to you to close out the call.

謝謝你，Arvind。接線員，接下來交還給你來結束本次電話會議。

Thank you all for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。本次會議現在結束。您此時可以中斷連線。