通用動力 (GD) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the General Dynamics Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And please note this event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加通用動力 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。 （操作員說明）

And I would now like to turn the conference over to Nicole Shelton, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Nicole Shelton。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the General Dynamics Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。歡迎參加通用動力 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

Any forward-looking statements made today represent our estimates regarding the company's outlook. These estimates are subject to some risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these non-GAAP measures including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see the press release and slides that accompany this webcast, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website, investorrelations.gd.com.

今天發表的任何前瞻性陳述均代表我們對公司前景的估計。這些估計存在一些風險和不確定性。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊包含在該公司的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中。我們也將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非GAAP 衡量標準的其他披露信息，包括與可比較GAAP 衡量標準的對賬，請參閱本網絡廣播隨附的新聞稿和幻燈片，這些內容可在我們網站Investorrelations.gd.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。

On the call today are Jason Aiken, Executive Vice President, Technologies and Chief Financial Officer; and Bill Moss, Vice President and Controller.

今天參加電話會議的是技術執行副總裁兼財務長 Jason Aiken；副總裁兼財務總監比爾莫斯 (Bill Moss)。

With the introductions complete, I'll turn the call over to Jason.

介紹完畢後，我會將電話轉給 Jason。

Thank you, Nicole. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for being with us. The first thing I'll note is that our Chairman and CEO, Phebe Novakovic, is under the weather today, so I'll be conducting today's call along with Bill.

謝謝你，妮可。大家早安，感謝您和我們在一起。我要指出的第一件事是，我們的董事長兼執行長 Phebe Novakovic 今天身體不適，所以我將與 Bill 一起主持今天的電話會議。

Earlier this morning, we reported earnings of $3.04 per diluted share on revenue of $10.6 billion, operating earnings of $1.06 billion and net income of $836 million. Revenue was up $596 million or 6% against the third quarter last year. Operating earnings were down $41 million or 3.7%. Net earnings were down $66 million. And earnings per share were down 6.7%. So the quarter-over-quarter results show significant growth in revenue, but 100 basis point contraction in operating margin.

今天早些時候，我們報告稀釋後每股收益為 3.04 美元，收入為 106 億美元，營業利潤為 10.6 億美元，淨利潤為 8.36 億美元。營收較去年第三季成長 5.96 億美元，成長 6%。營業利潤下降 4,100 萬美元，即 3.7%。淨利潤下降 6600 萬美元。每股收益下降 6.7%。因此，季度環比業績顯示收入顯著增長，但營業利潤率收縮了 100 個基點。

On the other hand, sequential results are quite good across the board. Here, we beat last quarter's revenue by 4.1%, operating earnings by 9.9%, net earnings by 12.4% and EPS by 12.6%. From a different perspective, we beat consensus by $0.13 per share on higher revenue and better operating earnings than anticipated. Operating margin is about the same as expected. The beat came almost entirely from operations.

另一方面，連續結果全面良好。在這裡，我們的收入比上季度增長了 4.1%，營業利潤增長了 9.9%，淨利潤增長了 12.4%，每股收益增長了 12.6%。從不同的角度來看，我們每股比預期高出 0.13 美元，營收和營業利潤都高於預期。營業利益率與預期大致相同。節奏幾乎完全來自營運。

On a year-to-date basis, revenue was up 7.2%. Operating earnings were down less than 1%. And diluted earnings per share were down 2.6%. We had another very strong quarter from a cash perspective. Net cash flow provided by operating activities was $1.32 billion and free cash flow was $1.1 billion, which is 131% of net earnings. This follows very good cash performance in the first half.

今年迄今，營收成長了 7.2%。營業利潤下降不到 1%。稀釋後每股收益下降 2.6%。從現金角度來看，我們又經歷了一個非常強勁的季度。經營活動提供的淨現金流為13.2億美元，自由現金流為11億美元，佔淨利的131%。這是繼上半年現金表現非常好之後的結果。

Order performance was good in the quarter in all segments and particularly strong at Gulfstream and the Marine segment. You'll hear more detail on cash and backlog as well as some of the other financial particulars from Bill in just a minute.

本季所有部門的訂單表現均良好，灣流和船舶部門的訂單表現尤其強勁。您很快就會從比爾那裡聽到有關現金和積壓訂單以及其他一些財務細節的更多詳細資訊。

In short, we enjoyed a strong quarter, particularly so in light of the supply chain and program mix headwinds that time will cure. So let me move right ahead with some color around the performance of the business segments.

簡而言之，我們度過了一個強勁的季度，特別是考慮到供應鏈和專案組合的不利因素需要時間來解決。因此，讓我繼續介紹一下業務部門的表現。

First, Aerospace. Aerospace had revenue of $2.03 billion and operating earnings of $268 million with a 13.2% operating margin. Revenue was down $315 million from the year ago quarter, driven by fewer deliveries at Gulfstream due to supply chain constraints. Operating earnings were down $44 million on lower revenue and a 10 basis point contraction in margin. The sequential comparison is much better. Revenue was up $79 million or 4%, and operating earnings were up $32 million or 13.6% on a 110 basis point improvement in margin. There were 27 deliveries in the quarter, 3 more than in the second quarter.

首先，航空航天。航空航太公司的營收為 20.3 億美元，營業利益為 2.68 億美元，營業利益率為 13.2%。由於供應鏈限制，灣流的交付量減少，導致營收較去年同期下降 3.15 億美元。由於收入下降和利潤率下降 10 個基點，營業利潤下降了 4,400 萬美元。順序比較好得多。營收成長 7,900 萬美元，成長 4%，營業利潤成長 3,200 萬美元，成長 13.6%，利潤率提高了 110 個基點。本季交付量為 27 架，比第二季增加 3 架。

To provide some additional color here, Gulfstream has made 72 aircraft deliveries through the end of the quarter. We're on track to deliver between 40 and 45 currently in-service aircraft in the fourth quarter. All in, including G700s, we anticipate in excess of 60 deliveries in the quarter, assuming we're granted FAA certification before the end of the year. That said, as you can tell, there's a considerable amount of uncertainty as we get closer to certification.

在此提供一些額外的信息，截至本季度末，灣流已交付 72 架飛機。我們預計在第四季度交付 40 至 45 架目前在役的飛機。假設我們在年底前獲得 FAA 認證，那麼包括 G700 在內，我們預計本季的交付量將超過 60 架。也就是說，如您所知，隨著我們越來越接近認證，存在相當大的不確定性。

Moving to the demand environment. This was yet another positive quarter, reflecting continuing strong demand. Aerospace book-to-bill was 1.4:1 and Gulfstream alone had a book-to-bill of 1.5:1. We continue to have vibrant sales activity going into the fourth quarter and expect strong orders. It would, however, be a stretch to get to 1:1 in the fourth quarter, given our expectation of over 60 deliveries. A wildcard in the quarter will be the conflict in Israel and its impact on demand, if any.

轉向需求環境。這是又一個積極的季度，反映出持續強勁的需求。航空航太公司的訂單出貨比為 1.4:1，光是灣流公司的訂單出貨比就為 1.5:1。進入第四季度，我們將繼續保持活躍的銷售活動，並預計會有強勁的訂單。然而，考慮到我們預計交付量將超過 60 架，第四季要達到 1:1 還有些困難。本季的一個不確定因素將是以色列的衝突及其對需求的影響（如果有的話）。

The period of significant increased aircraft demand began in mid-February of 2021, over 2.5 years ago. In 2021, Gulfstream's book-to-bill was 1.7:1. In '22, it was 1.5:1. And year-to-date 2023, it's 1.3:1. This includes the first quarter of 2023 when there was a 3-week hiatus in orders as a result of the failure of several regional banks. In that quarter, we still managed a 0.9:1 book to bill. All of this leads quite naturally to an astonishing build of the Aerospace backlog. It grew from $11.6 billion at the end of 2020 to $20.1 billion at the end of the third quarter 2023, an increase of over 70% in 2.75 years. This all speaks to me of the underlying strength of the market for our products.

飛機需求大幅成長的時期始於 2021 年 2 月中旬，距今已有 2.5 年多的時間。 2021年，灣流的訂單出貨比為1.7:1。 22年，這個比例是1.5:1。到 2023 年迄今為止，該比例為 1.3:1。其中包括 2023 年第一季度，由於幾家地區銀行倒閉，訂單中斷了 3 週。在那一季度，我們的帳本比仍為 0.9:1。所有這些自然而然地導致了航空航天積壓的驚人增長。從2020年底的116億美元成長到2023年第三季末的201億美元，2.75年內成長了70%以上。這一切都說明了我們產品市場的潛在實力。

The G700 flight test and certification program continues to move closer to its ultimate conclusion. We continue to plan for certification in the fourth quarter of this year, largely dependent upon the availability of FAA resources and the credit the FAA may allow for company flying. We currently are spending most of our engineering time on final reports and data submission.

G700飛行測試和認證計劃繼續接近最終結論。我們繼續計劃在今年第四季進行認證，這在很大程度上取決於 FAA 資源的可用性以及 FAA 可能為公司飛行提供的信用。目前，我們大部分的工程時間都花在最終報告和資料提交上。

Operationally, Gulfstream continues to make good progress under difficult circumstances. But as a result of the supply chain issues that we've previously discussed, we plan to deliver 10 to 12 fewer aircraft this year than the 145 we had originally forecast in the beginning of the year. On the other hand, we continue to expect more service revenue than initially predicted.

在營運方面，灣流在困難的情況下繼續取得良好進展。但由於我們之前討論過的供應鏈問題，我們計劃今年交付的飛機數量比年初預計的 145 架少 10 到 12 架。另一方面，我們仍然預期服務收入將高於最初的預期。

Next, Combat Systems. Combat Systems had revenue of $2.22 billion, up a stunning 24.4% over the year ago quarter with growth at each of the business units, but particularly at OTS and European Land Systems. Earnings were $300 million, which is up 10.7%. Margins at 13.5% represent a 170 basis point reduction versus the year ago quarter. So once again, we saw a powerful revenue performance coupled with more modest operating margins in large part attributable to mix and new program starts. Some of our revenue increase is a result of facilities contracts to increase our artillery production capacity taken at lower margins. As you'd expect, these contracts will result in additional production at accretive margins over time.

接下來，戰鬥系統。 Combat Systems 的營收為 22.2 億美元，比去年同期成長了 24.4%，每個業務部門都實現了成長，尤其是 OTS 和歐洲陸地系統。利潤為 3 億美元，成長 10.7%。利潤率為 13.5%，較去年同期下降 170 個基點。因此，我們再次看到了強勁的收入表現以及較溫和的營業利潤率，這在很大程度上歸因於混合和新項目的啟動。我們的部分收入成長是由於以較低的利潤簽訂了旨在提高火砲生產能力的設施合約的結果。正如您所期望的那樣，隨著時間的推移，這些合約將導致產量增加，利潤增加。

On the subject of munitions, we're working very closely with our government customer and have accelerated production faster than planned. The large capacity expansion that we're putting in place today will further increase production. We have ways to go, but we're making progress.

在彈藥方面，我們正在與政府客戶密切合作，並以比計劃更快的速度加快生產。我們今天實施的大規模產能擴張將進一步提高產量。我們還有很長的路要走，但我們正在取得進展。

The increase in combat revenue also came from new international vehicle programs, the ramp-up of the M10 Booker, higher artillery program volume and higher volume on Piranha and EAGLE vehicles in Europe. On a sequential basis, revenue was up $300 million or 15.6% and earnings were up $49 million or 19.5% on a 50 basis point improvement in margin. Year-to-date, revenue was up $775 million or 15.1% and operating earnings were up $53 million or 7.1% over last year. So the numbers are quite impressive quarter-over-quarter sequentially and year-to-date.

作戰收入的增加也來自新的國際車輛項目、M10 Booker 的升級、火砲項目數量的增加以及歐洲 Piranha 和 EAGLE 車輛數量的增加。與上一季相比，營收成長了 3 億美元，即 15.6%，獲利成長了 4,900 萬美元，即 19.5%，利潤率提高了 50 個基點。年初至今，營收比去年成長 7.75 億美元，成長 15.1%，營業利潤成長 5,300 萬美元，成長 7.1%。因此，季度環比和年初至今的數字都非常令人印象深刻。

Combat Systems experienced very good order performance. Orders in the quarter resulted in a 1:1 book-to-bill, a very strong performance given the increased revenue and evidencing strong demand for munitions and international combat vehicles. Year-to-date, the book-to-bill is 1.3:1, which fully supports the growth outlook.

戰鬥系統的訂單表現非常好。該季度的訂單實現了 1:1 的訂單出貨比，考慮到收入的增加以及對彈藥和國際戰車的強勁需求，這是一個非常強勁的業績。年初至今，訂單出貨比為 1.3:1，完全支持成長前景。

Turning to Marine Systems. Once again, our shipbuilding units are demonstrating impressive revenue growth. Marine Systems revenue of $3 billion was up $233 million or 8.4% against the year ago quarter. Columbia-class Construction and Engineering drove the growth. Operating earnings were $211 million, down $27 million versus the year ago quarter with 160 basis point decrement in operating margin. The year ago quarter had a number of favorable EAC adjustments, which did not repeat this quarter. Sequentially, both revenue and operating earnings were down somewhat. Importantly, year-to-date revenue was up $982 million, 12.2%. However, earnings were essentially flat on a 90 basis point contraction in operating margin.

轉向海洋系統。我們的造船部門再次展現出令人印象深刻的收入成長。船舶系統營收為 30 億美元，較去年同期成長 2.33 億美元，成長 8.4%。哥倫比亞級建築和工程推動了成長。營業利潤為 2.11 億美元，較去年同期下降 2,700 萬美元，營業利潤率下降 160 個基點。去年同期有一些有利的 EAC 調整，但本季沒有重複。隨後，收入和營業利潤均有所下降。重要的是，年初至今的營收成長了 9.82 億美元，增幅為 12.2%。然而，由於營業利潤率下降 90 個基點，獲利基本持平。

The real driver of the margin difficulty has been the late deliveries of Electric Boat from the supply chain, which causes out-of-station work and internal scheduling disruptions. Electric Boat has continued to improve its throughput, but not fast enough to offset the cost of late material. We continue with the help of the Navy to work this issue.

利潤困難的真正驅動因素是供應鏈中電船的延遲交付，這導致了站外工作和內部調度中斷。電船的吞吐量持續提高，但速度不足以抵消後期材料的成本。我們將繼續在海軍的幫助下解決這個問題。

At Bath, while we're seeing signs of improved productivity, it is yet to manifest in the business' financial performance. All that said, we're looking for slow but steady incremental margin growth over time. Importantly, Marine Systems enjoyed a very good quarter from an orders perspective with a 2.3:1 book-to-bill. This is a very large enduring backlog.

在巴斯，雖然我們看到生產力提高的跡象，但尚未體現在企業的財務表現中。話雖如此，我們正在尋求隨著時間的推移緩慢但穩定的增量利潤增長。重要的是，從訂單角度來看，Marine Systems 的季度表現非常出色，訂單出貨比為 2.3:1。這是一個非常大的持久積壓。

And lastly, Technologies. It was another strong quarter with revenue of $3.3 billion, which is up 8% over the prior year and continues to build on the strong first half of the year. That growth was spread pretty evenly between GDIT and Mission Systems. In fact, each business grew both year-over-year and sequentially. At GDIT, we're seeing particular strength in the defense and federal civilian portfolios as our technology accelerator investments in capabilities like Zero Trust, artificial intelligence digital engineering and 5G are really resonating with customers and driving increased demand.

最後是技術。這是另一個強勁的季度，營收達 33 億美元，比上年增長 8%，並在今年上半年的強勁業績基礎上繼續發展。這一增長在 GDIT 和任務系統之間相當均勻地分佈。事實上，每項業務均實現同比和環比增長。在 GDIT，我們在國防和聯邦民用產品組合中看到了特別的優勢，因為我們對零信任、人工智慧數位工程和 5G 等功能的技術加速器投資確實引起了客戶的共鳴並推動了需求的成長。

At Mission Systems, the cyber and naval platform markets have been particularly strong. The production and delivery cadence on the hardware side appears to have stabilized, so we expect the results to be somewhat more predictable despite the lingering fragility in the supply chain that will continue to be the new normal.

在任務系統公司，網路和海軍平台市場尤其強勁。硬體方面的生產和交付節奏似乎已經穩定，因此我們預計結果將更加可預測，儘管供應鏈中揮之不去的脆弱性將繼續成為新常態。

Based on the strength of the first 3 quarters, the group is on track to achieve our increased sales forecast of $12.7 billion for the year. Operating earnings in the quarter were $315 million, up 10.5%, yielding a margin of 9.5%. That's up 20 basis points year-over-year and up 70 basis points sequentially. So very solid performance on strong revenue growth in the quarter. This is a drumbeat we expect to see continue in the fourth quarter.

基於前三個季度的強勁表現，該集團預計將實現全年 127 億美元的銷售成長預測。該季度營業利潤為 3.15 億美元，成長 10.5%，利潤率為 9.5%。年比上漲 20 個基點，季增 70 個基點。本季營收強勁成長，業績非常穩健。我們預計這一勢頭將在第四季度繼續下去。

Backlog at the end of the quarter was $12.7 billion. Through the first 9 months, the group achieved a book-to-bill ratio of 1:1, keeping pace with the strong revenue growth across the business. Prospects remain strong with a qualified funnel of over $125 billion in opportunities they're pursuing across the portfolio.

本季末的積壓訂單為 127 億美元。前 9 個月，該集團實現了 1:1 的訂單出貨比，與整個業務收入的強勁成長保持同步。他們在整個投資組合中尋求超過 1,250 億美元的合格機會，前景仍然強勁。

Let me close with a review of the defense units in aggregate. As a whole, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, defense had revenue of $8.54 billion, up $911 million or 11.9% over the year ago quarter. On the same basis, earnings of $826 million were up $32 million or 4%. On a sequential basis, the pattern is similar. Revenue was up $340 million or 4.1% and earnings were up $57 million or 7.4%. Year-to-date against the same period last year, revenue of $24.7 billion was up 10.2% and operating earnings were up $60 million or 2.6%. In short, our defense businesses are experiencing significant growth in and, to a lesser degree, in earnings. However, we need to continue to work with our supply chain in order to achieve appropriate operating leverage.

最後，讓我對國防單位進行總體回顧。整體而言，按季度計算，國防業務收入為 85.4 億美元，比去年同期成長 9.11 億美元，成長 11.9%。在同一基礎上，利潤為 8.26 億美元，增加了 3,200 萬美元，即 4%。從順序來看，模式是相似的。營收成長 3.4 億美元，成長 4.1%，獲利成長 5,700 萬美元，成長 7.4%。年初至今，營收為 247 億美元，年增 10.2%，營業利潤成長 6,000 萬美元，成長 2.6%。簡而言之，我們的國防業務正在經歷顯著成長，並在較小程度上實現獲利成長。然而，我們需要繼續與我們的供應鏈合作，以實現適當的營運槓桿。

So with that, let me turn it over to Bill.

那麼，讓我把它交給比爾。

Thank you, Jason, and good morning. We had another very good quarter from an orders perspective with an overall book-to-bill ratio of 1.4:1 for the company. This is particularly impressive with the strong revenue growth in the quarter. Marine Systems and Aerospace led the way with book-to-bill ratios of 2.3 and 1.4, respectively. For the second quarter in a row, this led to record-level backlog of $95.6 billion at the end of the quarter, up 4.6% from last quarter and up 7.6% from a year ago. Our total estimated contract value, which includes options and IDIQ contracts ended the quarter just shy of $133 billion.

謝謝你，傑森，早安。從訂單角度來看，我們又度過了一個非常好的季度，公司的整體訂單出貨比為 1.4:1。鑑於本季營收的強勁成長，這一點尤其令人印象深刻。 Marine Systems 和 Aerospace 領先，訂單出貨比分別為 2.3 和 1.4。這連續第二季導致季末積壓金額達到創紀錄的 956 億美元，比上季成長 4.6%，比去年同期成長 7.6%。我們估計的合約總價值（包括選擇權和 IDIQ 合約）在本季結束時接近 1,330 億美元。

Moving to our cash performance. This was another strong story in the quarter with over $1.3 billion of operating cash flow. This brings us to $3.5 billion of operating cash flow through the first 9 months of the year. Including capital expenditures, our free cash flow was $1.1 billion for the quarter and $2.9 billion year-to-date or 126% of net income through the first 9 months. This conversion rate was achieved on the strength of the Gulfstream orders, additional scheduled progress payment on Combat Systems' international programs and continued strong cash performance in Technologies. We are well positioned to achieve our target for the year of a cash conversion rate of over 100% of net income.

轉向我們的現金表現。這是本季另一個強勁的故事，營運現金流超過 13 億美元。這使我們今年前 9 個月的營運現金流達到 35 億美元。包括資本支出在內，我們本季的自由現金流為 11 億美元，年初至今為 29 億美元，佔前 9 個月淨利的 126%。這一轉換率的實現得益於灣流訂單、戰鬥系統公司國際項目的額外預定進度付款以及技術領域持續強勁的現金表現。我們完全有能力實現今年現金轉換率超過淨利 100% 的目標。

Looking at capital deployment. Capital expenditures were $227 million in the quarter, or 2.1% of sales. For the first 9 months, we're at 2% of sales. We're still targeting to be slightly below 2.5% of sales for the full year, so that implies an uptick in capital investments in the fourth quarter. We paid $363 million in dividends and repurchased a little over 0.25 million shares during the quarter, bringing the total deployed in dividends and share repurchases through the first 9 months to $1.5 billion.

著眼於資本配置。本季資本支出為 2.27 億美元，佔銷售額的 2.1%。前 9 個月，我們的銷售額佔銷售額的 2%。我們的目標仍然是略低於全年銷售額的 2.5%，這意味著第四季度資本投資將會增加。本季我們支付了 3.63 億美元的股息，並回購了略多於 25 萬股的股票，使前 9 個月的股息和股票回購總額達到 15 億美元。

We also repaid $500 million of debt that matured in August and ended the quarter with a cash balance of over $1.3 billion. That brings us to a net debt position of $7.9 billion, down nearly $1.4 billion from year-end. Net interest expense in the quarter was $85 million, bringing interest expense for the first 9 months of the year to $265 million, down from $279 million for the same period in 2022.

我們也償還了 8 月到期的 5 億美元債務，本季末現金餘額超過 13 億美元。這使我們的淨債務部位達到 79 億美元，比年底減少近 14 億美元。該季度的淨利息支出為 8,500 萬美元，使今年前 9 個月的利息支出達到 2.65 億美元，低於 2022 年同期的 2.79 億美元。

Finally, the tax rate in the quarter was 15.6%, bringing the rate for the first 9 months to 16.2%. This is consistent with our guidance last quarter to expect a lower rate in the third quarter and a higher rate in the fourth. So no change to our outlook of 17% for the full year, which again implies a higher tax rate in the discrete fourth quarter.

最後，該季度的稅率為15.6%，使得前9個月的稅率達到16.2%。這與我們上季的指引一致，即預期第三季利率較低，第四季利率較高。因此，我們對全年 17% 的預期沒有變化，這再次意味著離散的第四季稅率將會更高。

Now let me turn it back to Jason for some final remarks.

現在讓我把它轉回賈森，讓他做一些最後的評論。

Thanks, Bill. As far as year-end guidance is concerned, we're holding at $12.65 for the year. There will be a number of puts and takes from what we published last quarter, but it should all come out about the same place.

謝謝，比爾。就年終指引而言，我們今年的股價為 12.65 美元。我們上季發布的內容中會有一些看跌和看跌，但它們應該都在同一個地方出現。

Nicole, that concludes our remarks, so I'll turn the call back to you.

妮可，我們的演講到此結束，我會將電話轉回給您。

Thanks, Jason. (Operator Instructions) Operator, could you please remind participants how to enter the queue?

謝謝，傑森。 （接線生指示）接線員，請您提醒與會者如何排隊？

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Peter Arment with Baird.

（操作員說明）我們將回答 Peter Arment 和 Baird 提出的第一個問題。

Jason, it sounds like there's just obviously a lot of moving parts for Q4 at Gulfstream. Is there a cutoff date if certification happens in December versus November about your ability to kind of push out those deliveries?

傑森，聽起來灣流的第四季顯然有很多變動的部分。如果在 12 月和 11 月進行認證，是否有關於您推遲交付的能力的截止日期？

And then any commentary on just -- I know you've had a long-term forecast of 170 deliveries for '24 and whether you still think that holds. Obviously, if certification slips, there'd be more potentially. But maybe just some commentary there.

然後是關於 - 我知道您對 24 年交付 170 架的長期預測以及您是否仍然認為這一點成立的評論。顯然，如果認證失敗，可能性會更大。但也許只是一些評論。

Yes. Thanks, Peter. As it relates to certification, I think what we've said for some time now is that if we can achieve certification in the, call it, early to mid-December time frame, then we've got a good shot at getting the planned deliveries of G700 out the door this year. Obviously, if that pushes further to the right, that puts that a little bit at risk.

是的。謝謝，彼得。就認證而言，我認為我們已經說過一段時間了，如果我們能夠在 12 月初到中旬的時間範圍內獲得認證，那麼我們就有很好的機會實現計劃的目標今年將交付 G700。顯然，如果這進一步向右推，那就有點危險了。

To your point about 2024, probably not appropriate to get into specifics about next year until we go through our plan period, which we'll engage in coming up here in the next month or two. But I think the way to think about this is, a lot of what we've been talking about this year between the supply chain challenges as well as the G700 and CERT timing is really timing issues.

對於您關於 2024 年的觀點，在我們完成計劃期之前可能不適合詳細討論明年的細節，我們將在接下來的一兩個月內討論該計劃。但我認為思考這個問題的方法是，我們今年在供應鏈挑戰以及 G700 和 CERT 時間安排之間討論的許多內容實際上都是時間問題。

And to your point, to the extent some of the deliveries that we anticipated this year don't happen, that really just pushes into next year. So that naturally is an adder to the outlook for 2024. But what we can't do yet is declare victory on the supply chain issues and say that by early next year, they're going to be completely solved. So a lot remains to be seen as to the timing of how that ultimately works itself out. And I think it's that, that will determine the net impact to 2024. So I think a little bit more time is going to be needed to see between what pushes out of 2023 into 2024 and the timing of the supply chain fix, what the net impact is to that '24 outlook. And I think we'll have a better sense of that when we come back to you with guidance in January.

就你的觀點而言，如果我們預計今年的某些交付沒有實現，那麼實際上只能推遲到明年。因此，這自然會增加 2024 年的前景。但我們還不能宣布供應鏈問題取得勝利，並表示到明年初，這些問題將徹底解決。因此，最終如何實現這一目標的時機仍有待觀察。我認為這將決定對 2024 年的淨影響。因此，我認為需要更多的時間來了解從 2023 年推遲到 2024 年的情況以及供應鏈修復的時間，淨影響是什麼影響是對'24 前景的影響。我認為，當我們在一月份向您提供指導時，我們會對這一點有更好的認識。

And we will take our next question from David Strauss with Barclays.

我們將回答巴克萊銀行大衛‧史特勞斯提出的下一個問題。

Jason, so at the beginning of the year, you guys had forecasted Marine and Combat to be relatively flat. At this point, we're looking at probably double-digit growth for both of those businesses this year. Does any of that -- as we start thinking about how those businesses could look next year, does any of this represent any sort of pull forward that would potentially moderate the growth that we could see out of those 2 businesses next year?

傑森，所以在今年年初，你們預測海軍陸戰隊和戰鬥隊將相對持平。目前，我們預計這兩項業務今年可能會達到兩位數成長。當我們開始思考明年這些業務的表現時，這些是否代表了任何一種可能會減緩我們明年從這兩項業務中看到的成長的推動力？

Yes. So I think as it relates to Marine Systems, David, nothing has really fundamentally changed from the narrative that we've talked about for some time, which is to expect roughly $400 million to $500 million on average per year, year-over-year growth in that business. Obviously, this year has turned out to be quite a bit different than we originally anticipated, and that's largely attributable to the increased throughput that we've seen at Electric Boat in particular as the hiring and retention dynamics have really improved faster than we thought. So that's really driven a lot of the revenue acceleration into this year.

是的。因此，我認為，大衛，就海洋系統而言，我們已經討論了一段時間的敘述並沒有真正從根本上改變，預計每年平均約為 4 億至 5 億美元該業務的增長。顯然，今年的情況與我們最初的預期有很大不同，這很大程度上歸因於我們在電船看到的吞吐量的增加，特別是因為招募和保留動態的改善速度確實比我們想像的要快。因此，這確實推動了今年營收的加速成長。

That backlog is so large and so long term, I don't really see that having a direct effect on next year or any given year. But obviously, again, we'll have to go through the specific planning period that we're about to engage in before we get too specific about next year. So we'll be back with more on that. But not a direct correlation in my mind from that Marine Systems increase in throughput.

積壓的數量如此之大，而且時間如此之長，我真的認為這不會對明年或任何特定年份產生直接影響。但顯然，在我們對明年過於具體之前，我們必須先經歷即將進行的具體規劃期。所以我們會再回來提供更多相關內容。但在我看來，海洋系統吞吐量的增加並沒有直接關聯。

On Combat Systems, to your point, we had been expecting sort of flat to down-ish revenue before the threat environment really took a turn in the opposite direction. And as you've seen through the first part of the year, up 15% so far year-to-date, almost 25% in the quarter. That certainly was well beyond what our original expectations were.

在戰鬥系統方面，就您而言，在威脅環境真正朝相反方向轉變之前，我們一直預期收入會持平甚至下降。正如您在今年上半年看到的那樣，年初至今成長了 15%，本季成長了近 25%。這當然遠遠超出了我們最初的預期。

And frankly, we don't see that demand signal slowing down. When you think about the munition side of the business as well as the international demand we're seeing along with the new program starts in the U.S., I don't necessarily see that as being a pull forward or something that creates a headwind into 2024. Again, not being specific about that outlook because we'll get into the planning period and get back to you in January.

坦白說，我們沒有看到需求訊號放緩。當你考慮到彈藥業務以及我們在美國啟動的新計劃時所看到的國際需求時，我並不一定認為這會成為 2024 年的推動因素或帶來阻力再次強調，我們不會具體說明這一前景，因為我們將進入規劃期並在一月份回覆您。

And as a follow-up, the IRS team looks updated guidance on Section 174 R&D. What impact does that have on your cash flow outlook?

作為後續行動，美國國稅局 (IRS) 團隊會查看有關第 174 條研發的最新指南。這對您的現金流前景有何影響？

Really, nothing other than what we've told you before. We've actually been pretty consistent on this throughout the drama on this issue over the years. We didn't originally anticipate the law to be changed. So our guidance was predicated on the law as it is. It turned out not to be changed. And our expectation of what that would mean for us, ultimately, you can call it lucky or good. we expected the net impact from a cash perspective to be right on course with what we're seeing right now.

真的，除了我們之前告訴過你的以外，沒有別的了。事實上，多年來我們在整個戲劇中關於這個問題的看法一直非常一致。我們最初並沒有預料到法律會改變。因此，我們的指導是基於現有法律的。結果並沒有改變。我們對這對我們意味著什麼的期望，最終，你可以稱之為幸運或美好。我們預計從現金角度來看，淨影響與我們目前所看到的情況相符。

And we will take our next question from Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將回答加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部 Ken Herbert 提出的下一個問題。

Maybe just start, Jason, again on Gulfstream. Last quarter, you called out sort of 19 is the expected 700 delivery number, depending upon CERT timing this year. Is that still a number we should expect into the fourth quarter, assuming you get certification in time? And can you just comment on any potential risk around production 280 levels considering some of the uncertainty in the Middle East?

傑森，也許剛開始，再次搭乘灣流。上個季度，您指出 19 是預期的 700 交付數量，具體取決於今年的 CERT 時間表。假設您及時獲得認證，這仍然是我們第四季應該預期的數字嗎？考慮到中東的一些不確定性，您能否評論一下產量 280 水平附近的任何潛在風險？

Yes. So as far as the G700 is concerned, 19 is the number that we have targeted and are still striving to get to. Again, as you note, that is predicated on timing of CERT. What I can tell you in terms of a little bit of color behind that is we've got 15 of those 19 that are ready to go and are in good shape, and we're working toward the others. So again, predicated on when the CERT comes, we should be in good shape to be somewhere in that range for delivery this year.

是的。所以就G700而言，19是我們的目標並且仍在努力達到的數字。同樣，正如您所指出的，這取決於 CERT 的時間安排。我可以告訴你的是，這 19 名球員中，我們已經有 15 名已經準備就緒，狀態良好，我們正在為其他球員努力。因此，根據 CERT 何時到來，我們應該處於良好的狀態，能夠在今年的交付範圍內達到某個水平。

As it relates to the 280s, what I would tell you is the modest downtick that we -- that I talked about earlier this morning in terms of our overall 2024 -- excuse me, 2023 deliveries, that 5 or 6 aircraft reduction from our previous guidance in July. That is largely related to G280s. I would tell you that what we plan to deliver this year, we now have in hand at our Dallas facility for completion. So there's really not any incremental risk to 2023. We will have to see obviously how the events in Israel play out and what impact that may have in 2024, but a little premature to get into that at this point.

由於它與 280 相關，我要告訴您的是我們今天早上早些時候談到的 2024 年整體交付量的適度下降，請原諒，2023 年的交付量比之前減少了 5 或 6 架七月指導。這很大程度與G280有關。我想告訴您，我們今年計劃交付的產品現已在達拉斯工廠完成。因此，到 2023 年實際上不會有任何增量風險。顯然，我們必須看看以色列的事件將如何發展，以及它可能對 2024 年產生什麼影響，但現在討論這一點還為時過早。

And we will take our next question from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

我們將回答垂直研究的羅伯特·斯塔拉德（Robert Stallard）提出的下一個問題。

Jason, on the supply chain, maybe I'm just reading too much into this, it sounds like it actually got a bit worse than what you talked about last quarter. So wondering if you could elaborate on what you've been seeing, whether there are any specific pinch points that are causing trouble.

傑森，在供應鏈方面，也許我對此讀得太多了，聽起來它實際上比你上個季度談論的情況更糟。所以想知道您是否可以詳細說明您所看到的情況，是否有任何特定的關鍵點造成了麻煩。

Rob, I'm going to guess you're talking about supply chain in Aerospace. And if so, I would tell you that actually we're seeing modest signs throughout the quarter that things are actually getting better. It's not as you'd imagine, a straight line to the finish line on this issue. So there'll be some bumps in the road and some curves along the way, but things are starting to trend better. What we saw here was a specification in terms of, as I mentioned, G280s in terms of the reduced in-service aircraft production. But on the large cabin aircraft, we are starting to see things trend in the right direction. So I think it's a little bit -- maybe the other direction of what your intuition is pointing you to.

羅布，我猜你說的是航太領域的供應鏈。如果是這樣，我會告訴你，實際上我們整個季度都看到了一些跡象，表明情況實際上正在好轉。在這個問題上，這並不像你想像的那樣，直線到達終點。因此，一路上會有一些顛簸和一些彎道，但事情開始變得更好。正如我所提到的，我們在這裡看到的是 G280 的規範，即減少在役飛機產量。但在大客艙飛機上，我們開始看到事情朝著正確的方向發展。所以我認為這有點——也許是你的直覺所指向的另一個方向。

Okay. Good to hear. Just as a follow-up, I was wondering if you could elaborate on where you stand on supply chain in -- I think Mission Systems had a few issues and also in the labor situation at Marine. That seems to improve.

好的。很高興聽到。作為後續行動，我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您在供應鏈方面的立場——我認為任務系統存在一些問題，海軍陸戰隊的勞工狀況也存在一些問題。這似乎有所改善。

Sorry, you just broke up there, Rob, at the end. You said Mission Systems, supply chain and then labor.

抱歉，羅布，你最後剛分手了。你說的是任務系統、供應鏈，然後是勞動力。

And Marine.

還有海軍陸戰隊。

Labor and Marine. Okay. So on the Mission Systems side, I feel very good about what they've done. The supply chain, to be completely candid with you, remains, and I think we expect to remain what I call fragile. I don't think that, that's going to get back to what we saw pre-pandemic for the foreseeable future. But the fact is the team at Mission Systems has fully incorporated that new reality into their outlook. And so I expect their future to be a lot more stable and predictable as they've incorporated the new normal, if you will, in supply chain on the electronics side for them.

勞工和海事。好的。因此，在任務系統方面，我對他們所做的事情感到非常滿意。坦白說，供應鏈仍然存在，而且我認為我們預計將保持我所說的脆弱狀態。我認為，在可預見的未來，這不會回到疫情前的情況。但事實是，任務系統團隊已將這一新現實完全納入他們的展望中。因此，我預計他們的未來會更加穩定和可預測，因為他們已經將新常態（如果你願意的話）融入電子產品的供應鏈中。

In terms of the labor side on Marine Systems, as I mentioned earlier, I think we've seen stabilization in both attraction and retention of labor in the shipyards at a faster rate than we anticipated. So that's an encouraging sign. That drives the throughput in the yard. And over time, as those new shipbuilders become more tenured, more experienced, more proficient, we would expect at that point, that's one of the factors that will really drive, over time, the margin improvement in the shipyard. So it's an encouraging start for them. We've just got to see that play out because as you know, shipbuilding is a long-term venture.

就海洋系統的勞動力方面而言，正如我之前提到的，我認為我們已經看到造船廠勞動力的吸引和保留都以比我們預期更快的速度穩定下來。所以這是一個令人鼓舞的跡象。這推動了堆場的吞吐量。隨著時間的推移，隨著這些新的造船廠變得更加資深、更有經驗、更加熟練，我們預計，隨著時間的推移，這將是真正推動造船廠利潤率改善的因素之一。所以這對他們來說是一個令人鼓舞的開始。我們必須看到這一結果，因為如您所知，造船業是一項長期事業。

And we will take our next question from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答德意志銀行斯科特‧德施勒 (Scott Deuschle) 提出的下一個問題。

Jason, can you walk through some of the high-level puts and takes for Aerospace incremental margins next year? And I guess maybe asked another way, are the right things to focus on from our perspective, the G700 mix, less out of sequence work, the learning curve on G700 is then presumably R&D, either leveling off or coming down? Or is there anything else here that we should be considering?

傑森（Jason），您能介紹一下明年航空航天增量利潤的一些高層看跌期權嗎？我想也許會以另一種方式問，從我們的角度來看，G700 組合是否應該關注正確的事情，減少無序的工作，G700 的學習曲線大概就是研發，要么趨於平穩，要么下降？或者還有什麼我們應該考慮的嗎？

I'd say you nailed most of the high nail items there for next year. And again, the G700 is a big piece of it. Obviously, we've talked about how that will come into service with favorable entry-level margins -- accretive entry-level margins for the group. So that's a big driver.

我想說你已經把明年大部分的高釘產品都釘在那裡了。再說一遍，G700 是其中的重要組成部分。顯然，我們已經討論過如何將其投入使用，並帶來有利的入門級利潤——為集團增加入門級利潤。所以這是一個很大的驅動力。

I think the other major one, and you alluded to it really, is the resolution and straightening out of the supply chain issues. One of the things Gulfstream has really worked towards here and planned toward, I think, very effectively, and we'll see it over time, is driving the efficiency of the operation with this new family of aircraft between the facilities that have been built, the commonality between the airplanes, the ability to service those airplanes efficiently. That is really what we are driving toward and one of the major underpinnings behind the long-term trajectory back to the mid- to high teen margins for that group. Obviously, timing of when those things get straightened out and the supply chain will be important because that's really what's sort of inhibiting us getting to that point of efficiency.

我認為另一個主要問題，你確實提到過，是解決和理順供應鏈問題。我認為，灣流在此真正努力併計劃非常有效地實現的目標之一是，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到它，即提高已建成的設施之間的這一新系列飛機的運營效率，飛機之間的通用性以及高效率服務這些飛機的能力。這確實是我們正在努力實現的目標，也是該群體回到中高端青少年利潤率的長期軌跡背後的主要基礎之一。顯然，這些事情和供應鏈得到理順的時機非常重要，因為這確實是阻礙我們達到效率水準的原因。

We will see a little bit of a modest downtick in R&D. I wouldn't call that a major factor, but you should expect to see that tick down a little as we finish up the 700 this year and get to the 800 next year. But again, have 800 and 400 to go. So we're not out of things yet from an R&D standpoint there.

我們將看到研發略有下降。我不認為這是一個主要因素，但當我們今年完成 700 英里並在明年進入 800 英里時，你應該會看到這個因素會略有下降。但同樣，還有 800 和 400 人。因此，從研發的角度來看，我們還沒有陷入困境。

Those are the major puts and takes, I'd say. All in all, we would expect to see revenue -- or excuse me, margin continuing on its trajectory, again, toward that mid- to high teen rate. We'll see improvement here in the fourth quarter, and I expect to see good improvement in 2024.

我想說，這些都是主要的觀點和觀點。總而言之，我們期望看到收入——或者對不起，利潤率繼續沿著其軌道發展，再次朝著中高青少年比率發展。我們將在第四季度看到改善，我預計 2024 年將看到良好的改善。

Okay. Great. And then as a follow-up, are there any major company-funded growth CapEx projects still underway in '24 and '25? Or is most of that complete this year? And if it does complete this year, does the nearly $1 billion of CapEx included in current Bloomberg consensus for '24 and '25 make directional sense? Because that's basically still in line with '23, I think.

好的。偉大的。接下來，是否有任何主要的公司資助的成長資本支出項目仍在 24 和 25 年進行？還是今年大部分已經完成？如果今年確實完成，那麼當前彭博社對 24 和 25 的共識中包含的近 10 億美元的資本支出是否具有方向意義？因為我認為這基本上仍然與 23 年保持一致。

Yes. The major internal CapEx projects are done this year. We've got a little bit of trailing costs and activity going on in the shipyards as we finish out that capacity expansion, particularly at Electric Boat, but that will wrap up next year. The investments we're making on the Army side from an artillery perspective, that's being funded by the customer. And so bottom line, we ought see our CapEx level trend back towards 2%. We'll be below 2.5% this year, which is directionally in the right -- headed the right way, and we'll be back toward, if not at 2%, headed toward 2% next year.

是的。主要內部資本支出項目已於今年完成。當我們完成產能擴張時，我們的造船廠有一些追蹤成本和活動正在進行，特別是在電船，但這將在明年結束。從砲兵的角度來看，我們在陸軍方面進行的投資是由客戶資助的。因此，我們應該看到我們的資本支出水準趨勢回到 2%。今年我們的成長率將低於 2.5%，這是方向正確的——朝著正確的方向前進，明年我們將回到 2%，即使不是 2%。

And we will take our next question from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答摩根士丹利克里斯汀·利瓦格 (Kristine Liwag) 提出的下一個問題。

Yes. So maybe first on the president's $106 billion supplemental request. It includes $3.4 billion for the submarine industrial base. With this request out there now and with respect to August, can you talk more about what this means for GD? Does this change the timing at all?

是的。因此，也許首先是總統提出的 1,060 億美元的補充要求。其中包括潛艦工業基地的34億美元。現在就 8 月提出了這個請求，您能多談談這對 GD 意味著什麼嗎？這會改變時間嗎？

Bottom line, Kristine, I think the short answer is no. Obviously, any additional support that can be provided in terms of that supplemental or other funding to shore up the industrial base is helpful. There's a lot of talk around August, and obviously we're going to do everything we can to support our customer in that regard. But the fact is the supply chain still remains very fragile. The -- we got a lot of work to do to get this whole industry back to -- from a submarine perspective back to 2 per year. We got to get to that point on Virginia while delivering Columbia, and I think we got some more work to do to get there. And so any additional funding and support, whether it's through the supplemental or other Navy support would be extremely helpful. But that's our focus today is to get to that 2 per year plus Columbia, and then we'll look to August beyond that.

最重要的是，克莉絲汀，我認為簡短的答案是否定的。顯然，任何可以透過補充資金或其他資金來支持工業基礎的額外支持都是有幫助的。八月左右有很多討論，顯然我們將盡一切努力在這方面支持我們的客戶。但事實是供應鏈仍然非常脆弱。我們還有很多工作要做，才能讓整個產業從潛水艇的角度恢復到每年 2 艘。我們在交付哥倫比亞號時必須在維吉尼亞州達到這一點，我認為我們還有更多工作要做才能實現這一目標。因此，任何額外的資金和支持，無論是透過補充還是其他海軍支持，都將非常有幫助。但我們今天的重點是達到每年 2 次，加上哥倫比亞大學，然後我們將展望 8 月的目標。

And following up on your comments on the fragile supply chain. Has there been changes in your contracting terms for the customer to reflect this? And how do we think about long-term margins?

並跟進您對脆弱供應鏈的評論。為了反映這一點，您的合約條款是否對客戶進行了更改？我們如何看待長期利潤？

So I think the main way this has been reflected in our contracting with the customer is to recognize the impacts that we've had and to price that in and accommodate what is this current state of affairs in our contracting. And one example of that is the DDG multiyear that we just saw awarded in the quarter. We feel like that's been appropriately considered there, and we'll continue to consider the state that the industry is in as we go forward. I wouldn't point to necessarily any other macro or overarching contract structures or other terms that have changed.

因此，我認為這反映在我們與客戶簽訂的合約中的主要方式是認識到我們所產生的影響，並將其定價並適應我們合約中的當前事態。其中一個例子就是我們剛在本季獲得的 DDG 多年期獎勵。我們認為這已經得到了適當的考慮，並且我們將在前進時繼續考慮該行業的現狀。我不一定會指出任何其他宏觀或總體合約結構或其他已更改的條款。

In terms of margins, we expect them to get better, frankly. My expectation is that this quarter would be the trough. For the group, we expect to see improvement in the fourth quarter, and we expect to see modest sequential incremental improvement over time in this group. That said, this is a challenging task. Shipbuilding is a challenging endeavor. And so it's not going to be straightforward. But our expectation to be completely straightforward is to have gradual increasing margins in this group over time as we march back toward that 8% to 9% plus margin range.

坦白說，就利潤率而言，我們預計它們會變得更好。我的預期是這個季度將是低谷。對於該集團，我們預計第四季度會有所改善，隨著時間的推移，我們預計該集團將出現適度的連續增量改善。也就是說，這是一項具有挑戰性的任務。造船業是一項充滿挑戰的事業。所以事情不會那麼簡單。但我們的預期是完全簡單的，即隨著時間的推移，隨著我們向 8% 至 9% 以上的利潤範圍邁進，該組的利潤率會逐漸增加。

And we will take our next question from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通的 Seth Seifman 提出的下一個問題。

Maybe just a follow-up on that last topic. The Q3 margin in Marine similar to Q1. In Q1, we know there were some charges on Virginia. I believe Block IV and Block V. Were there significant negative EACs on Virginia in the third quarter that drove kind of the margin that we ended up seeing? And I guess, kind of any -- I know you talked about supply chain at Electric Boat, but any additional color about what assumptions have really changed there? And with the new assumptions, how that affects your ability to expand margins?

也許只是最後一個主題的後續。 Marine 的 Q3 利潤率與 Q1 類似。在第一季度，我們知道維吉尼亞受到了一些指控。我相信第四區塊和第五區塊。第三季度弗吉尼亞州的 EAC 是否出現顯著的負值，從而推動了我們最終看到的利潤率？我想，有點——我知道你談到了電船的供應鏈，但是關於那裡的假設真正發生了變化，還有什麼其他的顏色嗎？根據新的假設，這將如何影響您擴大利潤的能力？

So in the quarter, Seth, no, nothing material in terms of EACs in the quarter. What you're seeing there, obviously, we are still experiencing pressure from delayed material coming out of the supply chain that's affecting Electric Boats schedule and delivery and man hour in the yard. But the other implication that you're seeing is having reduced the margin rates through the earlier EAC adjustments. We're now seeing the aggregate impact of that in the booking rates that we are recognizing on the programs today. So it's sort of the aggregate confluence of all those factors are driving the margin rate that you see in the quarter. But again, as we start to improve -- continue to improve the throughput and improve the efficiency in the yards, we do expect to see incremental improvement in the margin starting in the fourth quarter.

所以在本季度，Seth，不，本季的 EAC 沒有任何實質內容。顯然，您所看到的，我們仍然面臨著來自供應鏈的材料延遲產生的壓力，這影響了電動船的時間表、交貨以及船廠的工時。但您看到的另一個含義是透過早期的 EAC 調整降低了保證金率。我們現在看到了我們今天認識到的預訂率的整體影響。因此，所有這些因素的綜合作用正在推動您在本季度看到的利潤率。但同樣，隨著我們開始改進——繼續提高吞吐量並提高堆場效率，我們確實預計從第四季度開始利潤率將逐步改善。

In terms of supply chain and changes, I wouldn't -- don't know if there's anything changing. I think it's as we go to contract, we have 2020 hindsights or full visibility, if you will, into the current state of affairs. And so we're working through that with our customer, and they understand the situation we're in. So we're basically incorporating the current state of the supply chain as well as the implications of increasing cost of skilled labor, as you've seen with a lot of the labor negotiations going on out in the market. So it's those types of factors that are being incorporated that we're putting into the new contracts, and that we feel like we'll put us in a good position to perform from a margin perspective as we look ahead.

在供應鏈和變化方面，我不會——不知道是否有任何變化。我認為，當我們簽訂合約時，我們就可以對 2020 年的事後情況或當前的事態有全面的了解（如果你願意的話）。因此，我們正在與客戶合作解決這個問題，他們了解我們所處的情況。因此，我們基本上會考慮供應鏈的當前狀態以及熟練勞動力成本增加的影響，因為您'我們看到市場上正在進行很多勞資談判。因此，我們正在將這些類型的因素納入新合約中，我們認為，從利潤率的角度來看，我們在展望未來時將處於有利的位置。

Okay. Okay. And then just for clarification, when you talked about the overall company and despite some changes, the EPS outlook being unchanged, was that sort of -- that was based on that new Gulfstream delivery outlook that you talked about with 60 plus in Q4. If the G700 wasn't to be certified this year, I assume that, that's kind of a different story. And kind of what's the last date that roughly that you could see that certification happen and still kind of deliver, I don't know, double-digit G700?

好的。好的。然後澄清一下，當您談到整個公司時，儘管發生了一些變化，但每股收益前景保持不變，這是基於您在第四季度與 60+ 談論的新灣流交付前景。如果 G700 今年沒有獲得認證，我想，那就另當別論了。大概您可以看到認證發生並且仍然可以交付兩位數 G700 的最後日期是什麼？

Yes. So the EPS reaffirmed at $12.65 is based on the updated Gulfstream delivery number that I mentioned earlier. As I said, that's mostly -- the reduced number from the July outlook is mostly associated with G280. So not as significant an earnings impact to that. As you can imagine, some puts and takes, none of which are particularly material across the rest of the portfolio, including some upward pressure across the defense businesses from a revenue perspective, as you might imagine, improved service -- customer service revenue at the Aerospace group and so on. Some below the line, things like lower interest expense and share count. Net-net, kind of putting us in the same place. So that's sort of why the guidance stays where it is.

是的。因此，每股收益重申為 12.65 美元是基於我之前提到的更新後的灣流交付數量。正如我所說，7 月展望中數字的減少主要與 G280 有關。因此，對獲利的影響就沒那麼大。正如你可以想像的那樣，一些看跌期權和看跌期權，其中沒有一個在投資組合的其餘部分中特別重要，包括從收入角度來看，國防業務的一些上行壓力，正如你可能想像的那樣，改善了服務——客戶服務收入航太集團等。有些是線下的，例如較低的利息支出和股票數量。網路-網絡，有點把我們放在同一個地方。這就是指南保持原樣的原因。

In terms of the 700 outlook, I think the key issue is and the question so many people have around why the uncertainty is we don't have a date certain. This is the FAA's process. We need to let them go through that process. We are supporting them in that process. They're going through flying now, and we're doing the necessary paperwork and reporting to support that. And so we have a path, we have an expectation to get there in early to mid-December, but there's not like a red line or a date certain on the calendar that we're looking at, at this point.

就 700 的前景而言，我認為關鍵問題是，很多人都想知道為什麼不確定性是我們沒有確定的日期。這是 FAA 的流程。我們需要讓他們經歷這個過程。我們在過程中支持他們。他們現在正在飛行，我們正在做必要的文書工作和報告來支持這一點。所以我們有一條路徑，我們預計在 12 月初到中旬到達那裡，但目前我們正在考慮的日曆上還沒有紅線或特定日期。

And we will take our next question from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

我們將回答道格·哈內德和伯恩斯坦提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to go back to Marine because when you look at Electric Boat, I mean your backlogs have been -- have built way up. As you mentioned, the Navy wants to be at 2 VCS deliveries per year. Can you describe like what scenarios you can even look at here? I mean, my understanding is it's about 1.2 now. It's way off what clearly congress wants, what the Navy wants. Are there scenarios that you think about in terms of how soon in a good situation we might get to that 2 per year? Or what would be a negative scenario? What's the range of outcomes here?

我想回到海軍陸戰隊，因為當你看到電船時，我的意思是你的積壓工作一直在增加。正如您所提到的，海軍希望每年交付 2 艘 VCS。您能描述一下您可以在這裡看到哪些場景嗎？我的意思是，我的理解是現在大約是 1.2。這與國會明確想要的、海軍想要的相去甚遠。您是否考慮過在良好的情況下我們多久才能達到每年 2 次？或什麼是負面的情況？這裡的結果範圍是什麼？

You point out the landscape appropriately, Doug. I think -- the way I think about that is prior to COVID, if you look at the couple of quarters leading up to 2020, we were -- as a team, we were right on the threshold getting to 2 per year on the Virginia Class program. So it is imminently doable in terms of the industrial base and the team that's working on that program. Obviously, COVID set us on our heels as well as the generational changeover in shipbuilders in terms of retirements and new hires.

你恰當地指出了風景，道格。我認為——我的想法是在新冠疫情之前，如果你看看 2020 年之前的幾個季度，我們——作為一個團隊，我們正處於弗吉尼亞號每年 2 次的門檻上班級計劃。因此，就工業基礎和致力於該專案的團隊而言，這是迫在眉睫的。顯然，新冠疫情讓我們緊跟在後，也讓造船廠在退休和新進員工方面發生了世代交替。

I think the way to think about that now is there's a number of factors that are going to help us get back to that point. One, is the -- again, the maturing and tenuring of that new workforce to get the efficiency in the workforce to get us back to where we were; the investments that the Navy is making in the industrial base, which are extremely helpful to stabilize that; and then other initiatives like what we call strategic sourcing, where we're trying to take bottlenecks out of the shipyards and move subsystem construction and capacity into other facilities and other yards around country so that we can take some of the pressure off of the 2 main production and assembly yards.

我認為現在考慮這個問題的方法是有很多因素可以幫助我們回到那個點。一是新進員工隊伍的成熟和長期任職，以提高員工隊伍的效率，使我們回到原來的狀態；海軍正在對工業基礎進行的投資，這對於穩定工業基礎非常有幫助；然後是其他舉措，例如我們所說的戰略採購，我們正在努力消除造船廠的瓶頸，並將子系統建設和產能轉移到全國各地的其他設施和其他造船廠，以便我們可以減輕 2 的壓力。主要生產和裝配廠。

Those are the types of things that are going to drive us back towards 2 per year. I'd be remiss to try and give you a time line on when it's going to be to get there. This is long-term challenging stuff. But I think with us and our partner and the Navy all working in the same direction in a very strong partnership, I feel optimistic about our path to get there.

這些類型的事情將使我們回到每年 2 次。如果我試圖給你一個到達目的地的時間表，那就太失職了。這是長期具有挑戰性的事情。但我認為，我們、我們的合作夥伴以及海軍都在非常牢固的伙伴關係中朝著同一個方向努力，我對我們實現這一目標的道路感到樂觀。

And then as a follow-up, if you add one more factor into this, which is Columbia-class obviously in a very different stage in the program, but also you've got an overlapping supply chain. How does progress on the Columbia-class right now look? And how does that affect your ability to push forward on this VCS ramp?

然後作為後續行動，如果你再添加一個因素，這是哥倫比亞級顯然處於該計劃的一個非常不同的階段，但你也有一個重疊的供應鏈。哥倫比亞級目前進展如何？這對您在 VCS 斜坡上前進的能力有何影響？

Yes. Columbia, as you know, is the Navy and the DoD's number one priority. So that's going to continue to be the case. And I don't see that being a trade-off necessarily to get to 2 per year for Virginia. Right now, we're a little over 40% complete on the first boat, and we're right on schedule for the targeted completion of that first boat. We've still got, obviously, about 4 years to go before delivery. So a lot of the way to go and a lot can happen between now and then, but all the resources that can be brought to bear are on that priority.

是的。如您所知，哥倫比亞是海軍和國防部的首要任務。所以這種情況將會持續下去。我認為維吉尼亞州每年達到 2 次的目標並不一定需要進行權衡。目前，我們第一艘船的完工進度略高於 40%，而且我們正按計劃完成第一艘船的目標。顯然，距離交付還有大約四年的時間。因此，從現在到那時，還有很多路要走，也可能發生很多事情，但所有可以利用的資源都集中在這個優先事項上。

I think the way to think about it is because of its priority position, it is essentially a headwind to those other factors that I gave you about what we're trying to do on Virginia Class. And we got to be able to manage both of those within the yard and within the teaming arrangement and with our customer. But those are some of the puts and takes. Columbia will be the priority, and it's our job to make Virginia happen notwithstanding that priority.

我認為考慮它的方式是因為它的優先地位，它本質上是我向您提供的有關我們在弗吉尼亞級上嘗試做的事情的其他因素的逆風。我們必須能夠在院子裡、在團隊安排內以及與我們的客戶一起管理這兩個方面。但這些只是其中的一些。哥倫比亞將是優先事項，儘管如此，我們的工作還是讓維吉尼亞州實現這一目標。

And we will take our next question from Cai von Rumohr with TD Cowen.

我們將回答 Cai von Rumohr 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

Good quarter. So Jason, you said you're still looking for 12.7 in Technologies. But when I look at all of your defense numbers, you really beat in revenues across the board. So maybe if you could -- and kind of if I look where the model was before, it looks like we have a softer fourth quarter to get us home, but that doesn't seem realistic given on spectacular revenues you had here in the third quarter. So maybe update us, if you could, on where you're looking for revenues in each of the defense sectors for the year. And have -- should we feel a bigger step up next year?

好季度。 Jason，您說過您仍在尋找技術領域的 12.7。但當我查看你們所有的國防數據時，你們的收入確實全面領先。 So maybe if you could -- and kind of if I look where the model was before, it looks like we have a softer fourth quarter to get us home, but that doesn't seem realistic given on spectacular revenues you had here in the third四分之一.因此，如果可以的話，請告訴我們您今年各國防部門的收入狀況。明年我們是否應該感受到更大的進步？

So I think the way to think about the fourth quarter, Cai, is there's -- as I alluded to earlier, there is obviously some upward pressure on the revenue on the Defense side. Nothing to get too specific about it, and I don't know that it's particularly material with just a couple of months to go here in the year.

因此，蔡，我認為思考第四季的方式是——正如我之前提到的，國防方面的收入顯然存在一些上行壓力。沒有什麼可以說得太具體的，而且我不知道今年只剩幾個月了，這是否特別重要。

But one way to think about this is this year, let's talk group by group. In technologies, you may remember last year, we had a significant surge in the fourth quarter because we had, had a big backup on the supply chain side at Mission Systems through the third quarter, and a lot of that flowed through in the fourth quarter. So really a big hockey stick or upswing in the fourth quarter. That's not the pattern this year. As I mentioned before, they've been a more regular order and a more regular drumbeat, and so we'll see a more steady state revenue pattern for Technologies in the fourth quarter.

但思考這個問題的一種方法是今年，讓我們逐組討論。在技​​術方面，您可能還記得去年，我們在第四季度實現了大幅增長，因為整個第三季度我們在任務系統的供應鏈方面都有大量備份，其中許多都是在第四季度完成的。所以第四節確實是一個很大的曲棍球棒或上升。今年不是這樣的模式。正如我之前提到的，他們的訂單和鼓聲更加規律，因此我們將在第四季度看到科技公司的收入模式更加穩定。

In Combat, likewise, it's historically for some time now been sort of the traditional seasonal pattern for Combat to rise throughout the year and have its biggest quarter in the fourth quarter, and we saw that again last year. In this case, in 2023, it's a much more steady drumbeat. Again, steady demand, strong volume, but not the traditional sort of seasonal fourth quarter uptick in Combat.

同樣，在戰鬥方面，歷史上一段時間以來，戰鬥方面的傳統季節性模式一直在全年上升，並在第四季度達到最大季度，我們去年再次看到了這一點。在這種情況下，到 2023 年，鼓聲會更加穩定。同樣，需求穩定，銷量強勁，但不是傳統 Combat 第四季季節性的成長。

And in Marine, again, we've already seen tremendous volume well in excess of our expectations. We're up $1 billion through -- almost through the first 9 months, which is roughly what we expect for the year. And so again, I'd say more stable quarter-to-quarter.

在海洋領域，我們再次看到了遠遠超出我們預期的巨大數量。幾乎在前 9 個月，我們就增加了 10 億美元，這大致相當於我們今年的預期。再說一次，我想說的是季度與季度之間更加穩定。

So to summarize, we're seeing more stable volumes across all 3 of the Defense segments from first quarter to fourth quarter, whereas in the past, they've risen from first to fourth. So a little bit of an aberration in the pattern. I do expect -- again, not to get ahead of the planning process we're going through, but I expect each of the businesses to show growth going into next year. Can't get more -- too much more specific about that at this point, but you should see growth in the Defense business across all 3 of the segments going into 2024.

總而言之，從第一季度到第四季度，我們看到所有三個國防領域的銷售更加穩定，而在過去，它們從第一上升到第四。所以模式上有點偏差。我確實希望——再次強調，不會超出我們正在經歷的規劃過程，但我預計每項業務都會在明年出現成長。目前無法提供更多信息，但您應該會看到 2024 年所有 3 個細分市場的國防業務都將出現增長。

Very helpful. And then maybe a quick comment on Israel Hamas has created additional demand. We have this $106 billion request from the President. Can you give us some general color in terms of areas where you think you could see incremental acceleration in demand?

很有幫助。然後，也許對以色列哈馬斯的快速評論創造了額外的需求。我們收到了總統提出的 1,060 億美元的請求。您能否給我們一些您認為需求可能會加速成長的領域的整體情況？

The Israel situation obviously is a terrible one, frankly, and one that's just sort of evolving as we speak. But I think if you look at the incremental demand potential coming out of that, the biggest one to highlight and that really sticks out is probably on the artillery side. Obviously, that's been a big pressure point up to now with Ukraine, one that we've been doing everything we can to support our Army customer. We've gone from 14,000 rounds per month to 20,000 very quickly. We're working ahead of schedule to accelerate that production capacity up to 85,000 even as high as 100,000 rounds per month. And I think the real situation is only going to put upward pressure on that demand. So that's the biggest stick out that I can see.

坦白說，以色列的局勢顯然是一個可怕的局勢，而且就在我們說話的時候，局勢正在不斷演變。但我認為，如果你看看由此產生的增量需求潛力，最值得強調且真正突出的可能是火砲方面。顯然，到目前為止，這對烏克蘭來說是一個巨大的壓力點，我們一直在竭盡全力支持我們的陸軍客戶。我們的發彈量很快就從每月 14,000 發增至 20,000 發。我們正在提前將產能提高到每月 85,000 發甚至 100,000 發。我認為實際情況只會給這種需求帶來上行壓力。所以這是我能看到的最大的障礙。

Abby, I think we have time for just one more question.

艾比，我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Excellent. We will take our final question from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

出色的。我們將回答美國銀行羅恩愛潑斯坦的最後一個問題。

Maybe just two, right? On Land Systems, given truly the surge in demand relative to where everybody thought it would be, from a capacity point of view, from a labor point of view, how are you guys set up there to handle it all?

也許只有兩個，對吧？在陸地系統方面，鑑於需求相對於每個人的預期確實激增，從容量的角度，從勞動力的角度來看，你們如何在那裡處理這一切？

I have to give a hand to the guys in the Combat Systems group in general and Land Systems specifically. They -- you've really not heard us talk about supply chain bottlenecks, labor capacity or other issues in that group. And that does not mean they have not faced them. They are just -- they stand out amongst even a spectacular crowd in the way they've handled it. So I don't have any expectation that we'll see any issues as we look ahead, even as the demand for their product, both here U.S. domestically as well as internationally continues to grow.

我必須向作戰系統組的人員以及具體的陸地系統組的人員提供協助。他們——你真的沒有聽到我們談論供應鏈瓶頸、勞動力能力或該群體中的其他問題。這並不意味著他們沒有面對過這些問題。他們只是——他們的處理方式在眾多人群中脫穎而出。因此，我不認為我們會在未來看到任何問題，即使美國國內和國際對其產品的需求持續增長。

And then maybe just changing gears a bit, nobody really asked a lot about GDIT.

然後也許只是稍微改變一下，沒有人真正詢問很多關於 GDIT 的問題。

Thank you for that. Finally.

謝謝你。最後。

Let's talk about that. It's a big piece of the company, right? And you know a lot about it, right, in particular. So when we think about a path to double-digit margins, I mean how do we get there? And then maybe from an operational point of view, why does not integrating Mission and GDIT together kind of makes sense? Because there's this bigger demand for software-driven solutions and software and hardware, and you're seeing the synergy coming out, particularly with the application of AI to the legacy systems and so on and so forth.

我們來談談這個吧。這是公司的重要組成部分，對嗎？你對此了解很多，對吧，尤其是。因此，當我們考慮實現兩位數利潤率的道路時，我的意思是我們如何實現這一目標？也許從營運的角度來看，為什麼將 Mission 和 GDIT 整合在一起沒有意義？因為對軟體驅動的解決方案以及軟體和硬體的需求更大，而且您會看到協同作用的出現，特別是在人工智慧應用於遺留系統等方面。

Yes. So on the margin side, just to be clear, as I think about double-digit margin for the group, not specifically GDIT, it's the mix of the two of them together, I absolutely expect this group to be on the march back to low double-digit margin. It's where they've been historically. I think if anything, I could articulate as a headwind to that is to the extent that the GDIT side grows faster than the Mission Systems side, that obviously creates a bit of a macro mix issue that could be a little bit of a headwind in terms of how long it takes us to get there. But frankly, I expect to see us get back into the double-digit margin range here in the fourth quarter, and we'll see how quickly we can get there in the outlook as we look at '24 and beyond. But I do expect them to get back on the trajectory toward low double-digit margin.

是的。因此，在利潤方面，需要明確的是，當我考慮該集團的兩位數利潤率時，不是特別是 GDIT，而是兩者的混合，我絕對預計該集團將回到低點兩位數的利潤。這是他們歷史上去過的地方。我認為，如果有的話，我可以將其表述為逆風，那就是 GDIT 方面的增長速度比任務系統方面更快，這顯然會產生一些宏觀混合問題，從角度來看可能會有點逆風我們需要多長時間才能到達那裡。但坦白說，我預計我們將在第四季度回到兩位數的利潤率範圍，當我們展望24 年及以後的前景時，我們將看到我們能以多快的速度實現這一目標。但我確實希望他們能夠回到低兩位數利潤率的軌道上。

In terms of integration, the way we see this is these are -- while they're very symbiotic businesses and they are dealing with a market that's dealing with a convergence and to your point in terms of their capabilities, we think that having them separate is appropriate because the investment thesis and the way you run an inherently people business versus an inherently technology development hardware and production business are fundamentally different and take different leadership, different priorities and sort of different investment thesis.

在整合方面，我們的看法是——雖然它們是非常共生的業務，而且它們正在處理一個正在處理融合的市場，並且就它們的能力而言，我們認為將它們分開是合適的，因為投資主題以及營運本質上的人員業務與本質上的技術開發硬體和生產業務的方式根本不同，並且採取不同的領導力、不同的優先順序和不同的投資主題。

The good news is that by having them together in the same group in a coordinated way, we are making investments and addressing the evolving technologies jointly as a group, and we are making sure we're being efficient at that and effective at that, not duplicative, not missing anything. And bringing the requisite skills to your point, from end to end, whether it's the hardware side, the services, the software capabilities, Solutions as a Service, software solutions and so on together in joint capabilities. So I think we get the best of both worlds that way in terms of the way we manage and run the businesses, but also the way we can bring combined capability to the customer set.

好消息是，透過以協調的方式將他們聚集在同一個團隊中，我們正在作為一個團隊進行投資並共同解決不斷發展的技術，並且我們確保我們在這方面高效且有效，而不是重複，沒有遺漏任何東西。並從頭到尾將必要的技能帶到您的點上，無論是硬體方面、服務、軟體功能、解決方案即服務、軟體解決方案等等，都在聯合能力中。因此，我認為，無論是在管理和經營業務的方式上，還是在為客戶群帶來綜合能力的方式上，我們都取得了兩全其美的效果。

Great. Everyone, thank you for joining our call today. As a reminder, please refer to the General Dynamics' website for the third quarter earnings release and highlights presentation. If you have additional questions, I can be reached at (703) 876-3152.

偉大的。大家好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。請注意，請參閱通用動力公司網站以了解第三季收益發布和亮點演示。如果您還有其他問題，請致電 (703) 876-3152 與我聯絡。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束，我們感謝你們的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。