通用動力 (GD) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the General Dynamics Q4 2022 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Howard Rubel, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎來到通用動力 2022 年第四季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁霍華德魯貝爾。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the General Dynamics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Conference Call. Any forward-looking statements made today represent our estimates regarding the company's outlook. These estimates are subject to some risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliation to comparable GAAP measures, please see the press release and slides that accompany this webcast, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website, investorrelations.gd.com.

謝謝接線員，大家早上好。歡迎來到 General Dynamics 第四季度和 2022 年全年電話會議。今天發表的任何前瞻性陳述均代表我們對公司前景的估計。這些估計受到一些風險和不確定性的影響。有關這些因素的更多信息包含在公司的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中。我們還將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標。有關這些非 GAAP 措施的更多披露，包括與可比較的 GAAP 措施的對賬，請參閱本網絡廣播隨附的新聞稿和幻燈片，可在我們網站 investorrelations.gd.com 的投資者關係頁面上獲取。

With my introduction complete, I turn the call over to our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Phebe Novakovic.

我的介紹完成後，我將電話轉給我們的董事長兼首席執行官；菲比·諾瓦科維奇。

Thank you, Howard. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for being with us. Earlier this morning, we reported earnings of $3.58 per diluted share on revenue of $10 billion, $850 million, operating earnings of $1 billion, $230 million and net earnings of $992 million. Revenue is up $559 million or 5.4% against the fourth quarter last year. Operating earnings are up $41 million or 3.5%. Net earnings are up $40 million or 4.2% and earnings per share are up $0.19 to 5.6%.

謝謝你，霍華德。大家早上好，感謝您與我們在一起。今天上午早些時候，我們報告了每股攤薄收益 3.58 美元，營收分別為 100 億美元、8.5 億美元，營業利潤分別為 10 億美元、2.3 億美元和淨利潤 9.92 億美元。與去年第四季度相比，收入增長了 5.59 億美元或 5.4%。營業收入增長 4100 萬美元或 3.5%。淨收益增加 4000 萬美元或 4.2%，每股收益增加 0.19 美元至 5.6%。

So the quarter-over-quarter results compare very favorably and are in most respects, consistent with our forecast and sell-side consensus. The sequential results are even better. Here, we beat last quarter's revenue by $876 million or 8.8% operating earnings by $129 million or 11.7%. Net earnings by $90 million or 10% and EPS by $0.32 a 9.8% improvement. As promised that it would be, the final quarter is our strongest for the year in both revenue and earnings. In fact, earnings per share, operating margins, net earnings and return on sales improved quarter over the previous quarter throughout the year. It was a nice steady progression of sequential improvement. For the full year, we had revenue of $39.4 billion, up 2.4%. Net earnings of $3.4 billion, up 4.1% and earnings per fully diluted share of $12.19, up $0.54, a 5.5% increase. So overall, the year was also reasonably consistent with our forecast and modestly better than the sell side. It was a very solid year in a difficult environment.

因此，季度環比結果非常有利，並且在大多數方面都與我們的預測和賣方的共識一致。連續的結果甚至更好。在這裡，我們比上一季度的收入高出 8.76 億美元或 8.8%，營業收入高出 1.29 億美元或 11.7%。淨收益增加 9000 萬美元或 10%，每股收益增加 0.32 美元，提高 9.8%。正如所承諾的那樣，最後一個季度的收入和收益都是我們今年最強勁的。事實上，全年每股收益、營業利潤率、淨收益和銷售回報率比上一季度有所改善。這是連續改進的良好穩定進展。全年，我們的收入為 394 億美元，增長 2.4%。淨利潤為 34 億美元，增長 4.1%，完全攤薄後每股收益為 12.19 美元，增長 0.54 美元，增長 5.5%。因此，總體而言，這一年也與我們的預測相當一致，略好於賣方。在困難的環境中，這是非常充實的一年。

Let me ask Jason to provide detail on our overall order activity, very strong backlog and cash performance in the quarter and the year.

讓我請 Jason 詳細介紹我們的整體訂單活動、非常強勁的積壓訂單和本季度和本年度的現金表現。

Yes. Thank you, Phebe, and good morning. order activity and backlog were once again a very strong story with a 1.2:1 book-to-bill ratio for the company for the fourth quarter and a 1.1x for the full year. Order activity in the Marine and Aerospace groups led the way. We finished the year with a total backlog at an all-time high of $91.1 billion and total estimated contract value, which includes options and IDIQ contracts of nearly $128 billion. I should note that foreign exchange rate fluctuations continued to be a headwind, reducing year-end backlog by nearly $600 million, with the vast majority of the impact in Combat Systems.

是的。謝謝你，Phebe，早上好。訂單活動和積壓再次成為一個非常強勁的故事，公司第四季度的訂單出貨比為 1.2:1，全年為 1.1 倍。海洋和航空航天集團的訂單活動處於領先地位。我們以 911 億美元的歷史新高結束了這一年，總估計合同價值，其中包括近 1280 億美元的期權和 IDIQ 合同。我應該指出，匯率波動仍然是一個不利因素，年終積壓減少了近 6 億美元，其中絕大部分影響在戰鬥系統中。

Turning to our cash performance for the quarter and the year. It was another solid quarter with operating cash flow of $669 million, which brings us to $4.6 billion of operating cash flow for the year. After capital expenditures, our free cash flow for the year was nearly $3.5 billion, a cash conversion rate of 102%, slightly ahead of our target for the year of 100% of net income. As discussed on previous calls, Gulfstream enjoyed particularly strong cash performance throughout the year on the strength of its order activity and the Technologies Group once again delivered outstanding cash performance.

轉向我們本季度和本年度的現金表現。這是另一個穩定的季度，運營現金流為 6.69 億美元，這使我們全年的運營現金流達到 46 億美元。扣除資本支出後，我們當年的自由現金流接近 35 億美元，現金轉換率為 102%，略高於我們當年 100% 淨收入的目標。正如之前的電話會議所討論的那樣，灣流憑藉其訂單活動在全年享有特別強勁的現金業績，而技術集團再次實現了出色的現金業績。

That said, when we talked with you in October, we discussed 3 potential constraints to cash in the fourth quarter. The pending outcome of congressional action on the tax treatment of R&D expenditures, the timing of resumption of cash collections on the Ajax program in the U.K. and an anticipated uptick in capital expenditures as we progress through our ongoing facility investments. As it turns out, the Congress did not act to remedy the requirement to capitalize R&D costs, we did not receive any payments from the U.K., though we now expect payments to resume this quarter, and our capital investments were in fact elevated, consistent with expectations.

也就是說，當我們在 10 月份與您交談時，我們討論了第四季度現金的 3 個潛在限制因素。國會關於研發支出稅收處理的未決結果、英國 Ajax 計劃恢復現金收款的時間以及隨著我們正在進行的設施投資取得進展，資本支出預計會增加。事實證明，國會沒有採取行動補救將研發成本資本化的要求，我們沒有收到英國的任何付款，儘管我們現在預計本季度將恢復付款，而且我們的資本投資實際上有所增加，與期望。

I'll discuss that in more detail a little later in the call. The net result was a lighter fourth quarter from a free cash flow perspective but slightly better than we had expected and rounds out a very strong year in terms of cash performance despite the headwinds I discussed. I should also point out that free cash flow per share has grown at a 22% compound annual growth rate from 2019 through 2022.

我將在稍後的通話中更詳細地討論這個問題。從自由現金流的角度來看，第四季度的淨結果較輕，但略好於我們的預期，儘管我討論了逆風，但在現金表現方面結束了非常強勁的一年。我還應該指出，從 2019 年到 2022 年，每股自由現金流以 22% 的複合年增長率增長。

Thanks, Jason. Now let me review the quarter in the context of the business segment, paying modest attention to the quarter-over-quarter sequential and annual comparisons that are rather straightforward and set out in the press release.

謝謝，傑森。現在讓我在業務部門的背景下回顧這個季度，適度關注新聞稿中相當簡單的季度環比和年度比較。

First, Aerospace. The story in aerospace has found in the sequential and year-over-year improvement as well as a continuing strong demand for Gulfstream aircraft, along with the overall strength of Gulfstream service business and the continuing improvement of Jet Aviation. In the quarter, Aerospace had revenue of $2.5 billion and earnings of $337 million. This represents a 4.4% increase in revenue and an 8% increase in earnings on a sequential basis.

第一，航天。航空航天領域的故事體現在對灣流飛機的持續和逐年改善以及對灣流飛機的持續強勁需求，以及灣流服務業務的整體實力和 Jet Aviation 的持續改善。本季度，航空航天的收入為 25 億美元，收益為 3.37 億美元。這意味著收入環比增長 4.4%，收益環比增長 8%。

For the full year, revenue of $8.57 billion is up $432 million from the prior year, even though we delivered only 1 more aircraft than we did in 2021. The increase in both revenue and earnings was driven by higher service revenue at both Gulfstream and Jet Aviation. Earnings were also helped by somewhat higher margins on delivered aircraft. Fourth quarter revenue and earnings comparison on a quarter-over-quarter basis are as attractive because 3 aircraft we plan to deliver in the fourth quarter slipped into the first quarter this year. Gulfstream had 38 deliveries in the quarter when we had planned to deliver 41.

全年收入為 85.7 億美元，比上一年增加 4.32 億美元，儘管我們交付的飛機僅比 2021 年多 1 架。收入和收益的增長是由灣流和 Jet 的服務收入增加推動的航空。交付飛機的利潤率有所提高也有助於盈利。第四季度收入和收益環比比較同樣具有吸引力，因為我們計劃在第四季度交付的 3 架飛機在今年第一季度下滑。灣流本季度交付了 38 架飛機，而我們原計劃交付 41 架飛機。

As a result, aerospace revenue and earnings are somewhat less than anticipated by the sell side for the quarter and for the year, but generally consistent with our forecast. I should also point out that Aerospace margins improved consistently quarter-over-quarter throughout the year. Aerospace demand remained strong. The book-to-bill was 1.2x in the quarter and 1.4x at Gulfstream alone. Orders in the quarter were $3 billion, up from $2.7 billion in the third quarter. The aerospace book-to-bill for the year was 1.5x.

因此，航空航天收入和收益略低於賣方本季度和全年的預期，但總體上與我們的預測一致。我還應該指出，航空航天業的利潤率全年都在逐季提高。航空航天需求依然強勁。本季度的訂單出貨比為 1.2 倍，僅灣流就為 1.4 倍。本季度訂單為 30 億美元，高於第三季度的 27 億美元。該年度航空航天訂單出貨比為 1.5 倍。

Give you a little more color. Gulfstream received 430 new aircraft orders over the past 2 years, over 400 net orders after default and backlog adjustments as a result of the settlement of a case in arbitration. All said and done, aerospace backlog is up 20% in 2022, and a staggering 68% over the past few years. As we go into the new year, the sales pipeline remains strong and sales activity is at a solid pace. At midyear 2022, we told you to expect revenue of about $8.6 billion and an operating margin of around 12.9%. We actually finished the year with a 13.2% operating margin. In short, we were spot on with respect to revenue and 30 basis points better on operating margin, which led to a $25 million more than forecast in operating earnings.

給你多一點顏色。過去兩年，灣流收到了 430 架新飛機訂單，其中超過 400 架淨訂單經過仲裁解決違約和積壓調整後的訂單。總而言之，到 2022 年，航空航天積壓訂單增加了 20%，過去幾年更是達到了驚人的 68%。隨著我們進入新的一年，銷售渠道依然強勁，銷售活動穩步推進。到 2022 年年中，我們告訴您預計收入約為 86 億美元，營業利潤率約為 12.9%。我們實際上以 13.2% 的營業利潤率結束了這一年。簡而言之，我們在收入方面表現出色，營業利潤率提高了 30 個基點，這導致營業收入比預期高出 2500 萬美元。

With respect to G700 development, we estimate it will certify this upcoming summer but much depends on available FFA resources. So far, the effort has been very collaborative and is proceeding according to plan with no surprises.

關於 G700 的開發，我們估計它將在即將到來的夏季獲得認證，但這在很大程度上取決於可用的 FFA 資源。到目前為止，這項工作是非常協作的，並且正在按計劃進行，沒有任何意外。

In summary, aerospace exhibited very strong performance in the quarter and for the year. We look forward to a significant increase in deliveries in 2023 at Gulfstream and improved operating margin, but more about that as we get into guidance. We also expect continued growth and margin improvement at Jet.

總之，航空航天在本季度和全年表現非常強勁。我們期待 Gulfstream 2023 年的交付量顯著增加並提高營業利潤率，但隨著我們進入指導，更多關於這一點。我們還預計 Jet 將持續增長並提高利潤率。

Next, Combat Systems. After a relatively slow start to the year. Combat Systems finished with a powerful fourth quarter. In fact, the fourth quarter of 2022 proved the highest revenue and earnings for Combat Systems in over 10 years. Revenue in the quarter was $2.18 billion, and it's up 15.5% from the year ago quarter. Operating earnings of $332 million are up 18.1% on a 30 basis point increase in operating margin. OTS alone captured more than 1/3 of its revenue and earnings in the fourth quarter. The revenue growth was largely driven by Mobile Protected Firepower, Abrams for Poland and the large international order in Canada. OTS enjoyed higher revenue across all lines of business, with particular strength in artillery rents.

接下來，戰鬥系統。在今年開局相對緩慢之後。 Combat Systems 以強勁的第四季度結束。事實上，2022 年第四季度是 Combat Systems 十多年來最高的收入和收益。本季度收入為 21.8 億美元，比去年同期增長 15.5%。營業利潤為 3.32 億美元，增長 18.1%，營業利潤率增長 30 個基點。僅 OTS 一家就佔據了第四季度超過 1/3 的收入和收益。收入增長主要由 Mobile Protected Firepower、波蘭的 Abrams 和加拿大的大型國際訂單推動。 OTS 在所有業務領域都享有更高的收入，尤其是大砲租金。

Not surprising, the sequential comparisons are even better. Revenue is up $391 million or 21.9% and earnings are up $61 million or 22.5% on the strength of a 15.2% operating margin. From an orders perspective, Combat had a very good year in 2022 with a book-to-bill of 1.1x, driven by MPS, very strong international demand for the Abrams main battle tank as well as growing demand on the munition side of the business. By the way, Combat's annual performance is fairly consistent with the forecast we provided you earlier in the year. Revenue and operating earnings are up somewhat and operating margin is a little lower.

毫不奇怪，順序比較甚至更好。由於營業利潤率為 15.2%，收入增長 3.91 億美元或 21.9%，收益增長 6100 萬美元或 22.5%。從訂單的角度來看，Combat 在 2022 年的表現非常好，在 MPS 的推動下，訂單出貨率達到了 1.1 倍，國際市場對艾布拉姆斯主戰坦克的強勁需求以及業務彈藥方面的需求不斷增長.順便說一下，Combat 的年度業績與我們今年早些時候向您提供的預測相當一致。收入和營業利潤有所上升，營業利潤率略有下降。

In short, this group had a wonderful quarter, continued its history of strong margin performance and had good order activity and a strong pipeline of opportunity as we go forward.

簡而言之，這個集團有一個精彩的季度，延續了其強勁的利潤率表現歷史，並在我們前進的過程中擁有良好的訂單活動和強大的機會渠道。

Marine Systems. The Marine Systems growth story continues. Fourth quarter revenue of $2.97 billion is up 3.4% over the year ago quarter. Revenue was also up 7.2% sequentially and 4.9% for the full year. Operating earnings are up about 1% over the year ago. Off less than 0.5% sequentially and up 2.6% for the full year. Once again, this is the highest full year of revenue and earnings ever for the Marine group. A little perspective may be of assistance here. Marine Systems has grown revenue from $8 billion in 2017 to $11 billion in 2022, this is a 5.3% compound annual growth rate with an average increase of $600 million per year. Earnings have grown from $685 million in 2017 to $900 million in 2022, a 5.5% compound annual growth rate.

海洋系統。 Marine Systems 的成長故事還在繼續。第四季度收入為 29.7 億美元，比去年同期增長 3.4%。收入也環比增長 7.2%，全年增長 4.9%。營業收入比一年前增長了約 1%。環比下降不到 0.5%，全年增長 2.6%。這再次成為 Marine 集團有史以來最高的全年收入和收益。一些觀點可能會有所幫助。 Marine Systems 的收入從 2017 年的 80 億美元增長到 2022 年的 110 億美元，複合年增長率為 5.3%，平均每年增長 6 億美元。收益從 2017 年的 6.85 億美元增長到 2022 年的 9 億美元，複合年增長率為 5.5%。

In addition, Marine had strong orders in the quarter, generating a 2.2x book-to-bill, including the receipt of a $5.1 billion contract modification to Colombia. Our forecast to you in July of last year anticipated revenue of about $10.8 billion, operating margin of 8.3% and operating earnings of $896 million. We came in above that for revenue, a little lower on the predicted operating margin and right on the forecasted earnings.

此外，Marine 在本季度的訂單量很大，訂單出貨率達到 2.2 倍，其中包括收到哥倫比亞 51 億美元的合同修改。我們在去年 7 月向您預測，預計收入約為 108 億美元，營業利潤率為 8.3%，營業利潤為 8.96 億美元。我們的收入高於這一水平，預測的營業利潤率略低，而預測的收益正好。

So Jason is going to give you a little color on the Technologies group, his new responsibility, provide a bit of perspective on balance sheet, other income and expense items, and I will close with our outlook for 2023.

因此，Jason 將為您介紹一下技術集團，他的新職責，提供一些關於資產負債表、其他收入和支出項目的觀點，我將以我們對 2023 年的展望結束。

The technologies group as a whole had a very strong finish to a solid year and a very challenging operating environment. Revenue in the quarter of $3.25 billion was up 9.3% over the prior year and up 6% sequentially. The Operating earnings of $340 million were up about 2% over the fourth quarter of 2021. And sequentially, we're up an impressive 19%. The main driver of the fourth quarter performance was Mission Systems' ability to overcome some of the logjam in its supply chain and deliver some of the product that was held up at the end of the third quarter. While these issues have not been completely resolved, the fourth quarter performance gives us good reason for optimism that they're starting to see their way through this.

整個技術集團在穩健的一年和極具挑戰性的運營環境中取得了非常出色的成績。本季度收入為 32.5 億美元，同比增長 9.3%，環比增長 6%。營業收入為 3.4 億美元，比 2021 年第四季度增長約 2%。環比增長 19%，令人印象深刻。第四季度業績的主要驅動因素是 Mission Systems 能夠克服其供應鏈中的一些僵局並交付一些在第三季度末被擱置的產品。雖然這些問題還沒有完全解決，但第四季度的表現讓我們有充分的理由樂觀，他們開始看到他們解決這個問題的方法。

For the year, revenue of $12.5 billion was up just slightly from 2021. Breaking that down, GDIT once again grew in the low single digits, up 1.6% after 2.2% growth in 2021. Mission Systems was down 2% despite the strong end to the year. Earnings for the year of $1.23 billion were down 3.8% on a 40 basis point contraction in margin to 9.8% as a result of the mix shift between product and service revenue as GDIT reported its highest margin since the CSRA acquisition and its highest ever earnings, but Mission Systems was down for the reasons discussed.

今年，收入為 125 億美元，僅比 2021 年略有增長。細分來看，GDIT 再次以較低的個位數增長，在 2021 年增長 2.2% 之後增長 1.6%。Mission Systems 下降了 2%，儘管 2021 年表現強勁那一年。由於 GDIT 報告了自 CSRA 收購以來的最高利潤率和有史以來最高的收益，由於產品和服務收入之間的混合轉變，今年的收益為 12.3 億美元，下降 3.8%，利潤率收縮 40 個基點至 9.8%，但 Mission Systems 由於討論的原因而關閉。

With respect to backlog, the Technologies group had a solid year, notwithstanding an ongoing trend of customer solicitations pushing to the right and recurring award protests. GDIT received over $11 billion in awards during the year, almost 20% higher than 2021, representing more new work than any year since the CSRA acquisition. And Mission Systems finished the year with a 1.1x book-to-bill and a capture rate in excess of 80%, putting them in a good position to emerge from the supply chain headwinds they have been facing.

在積壓訂單方面，技術集團今年表現不錯，儘管客戶徵集的趨勢一直在向右推進，並且反復出現授標抗議。 GDIT 在這一年中獲得了超過 110 億美元的獎勵，比 2021 年高出近 20%，這比 CSRA 收購以來的任何一年都多。 Mission Systems 以 1.1 倍的訂單出貨比和超過 80% 的捕獲率結束了這一年，使他們處於有利地位，可以擺脫他們一直面臨的供應鏈逆風。

With that, I'll turn to some of the financial particulars before turning it back over to Phebe to give you our guidance for 2023. Starting with capital deployment in 2022, Capital expenditures, as I noted, were elevated in the fourth quarter at $494 million or 4.6% of sales. That brings us to $1.1 billion for the full year. At 2.8% of sales, full year capital expenditures are slightly higher than our original expectation due strictly to timing. We expect capital expenditures to start to step back down below 2.5% in 2023 and continuing to trend towards historic levels. We also paid $345 million in dividends in the fourth quarter bringing the full year to $1.4 billion, and we repurchased approximately 440,000 shares of stock in the quarter, bringing us to over 5 million shares for the year for $1.2 billion at just under $226 per share.

說到這裡，我將介紹一些財務細節，然後再轉回給 Phebe，為您提供我們對 2023 年的指導。從 2022 年的資本部署開始，正如我指出的那樣，第四季度的資本支出增加到 494 美元萬或銷售額的 4.6%。這使我們全年達到 11 億美元。佔銷售額 2.8% 的全年資本支出略高於我們原先的預期，這完全是由於時機的原因。我們預計資本支出將在 2023 年開始回落至 2.5% 以下，並繼續趨向於歷史水平。我們還在第四季度支付了 3.45 億美元的股息，使全年達到 14 億美元，我們在本季度回購了大約 440,000 股股票，使我們全年以 12 億美元的價格回購了超過 500 萬股，每股略低於 226 美元.

With respect to our pension plans, we contributed $50 million in 2022, and we expect that to increase to approximately $200 million in 2023. This includes a modest voluntary contribution to one of our commercial plans, which was made this month and fully funds the plan that had a funding gap of more than $500 million within the past 2 years. Concurrently, we shifted the investment mix to hedge the plan's $2 billion of liabilities, thus eliminating any funding risk associated with market volatility or discount rate fluctuations.

關於我們的養老金計劃，我們在 2022 年捐助了 5000 萬美元，我們預計到 2023 年將增加到約 2 億美元。這包括對我們本月制定的一項商業計劃的少量自願捐助，並為該計劃提供全額資金過去 2 年的資金缺口超過 5 億美元。同時，我們改變了投資組合以對沖該計劃的 20 億美元負債，從而消除與市場波動或貼現率波動相關的任何融資風險。

However, as a result of the change in investment mix, our pension income will be lower in 2023. Following this derisking activity, we expect our corporate operating expense for 2023 to be approximately $140 million and our other income to be approximately $80 million, a combined reduction of roughly $125 million in nonoperating, noncash income from 2022. Speaking of pension income, the fourth quarter had higher-than-anticipated other income as we benefited from higher discount rates for measuring liabilities on our nonqualified pension plans, which are mark-to-market at the end of the year. We also repaid $1 billion of fixed rate notes in the fourth quarter. After all this, we ended the year with a cash balance of over $1.2 billion and a net debt position of $9.3 billion, down approximately $600 million from last year.

然而，由於投資組合的變化，我們的養老金收入將在 2023 年降低。在進行這種去風險活動之後，我們預計 2023 年的公司運營費用約為 1.4 億美元，其他收入約為 8000 萬美元，從 2022 年起，非營業性非現金收入合計減少約 1.25 億美元。說到養老金收入，第四季度的其他收入高於預期，因為我們受益於衡量我們不合格養老金計劃負債的更高貼現率，這些計劃是標記-年底上市。我們還在第四季度償還了 10 億美元的固定利率票據。畢竟，我們年底的現金餘額超過 12 億美元，淨債務頭寸為 93 億美元，比去年減少了約 6 億美元。

We have $1.25 billion of debt maturing in 2023. Our net interest expense in the fourth quarter was $85 million, bringing interest expense for the full year to $364 million. That compares to $93 million and $424 million in the respective 2021 period. Pending our decisions with respect to the scheduled debt maturities, we expect interest expense in 2023 to remain essentially consistent with 2022. Turning to income taxes. We had an 18.1% effective tax rate in the fourth quarter, which brings our full year rate to 16%, consistent with our guidance. Looking ahead to 2023, we expect the full year effective tax rate to increase to around 17%, reflecting higher taxes on foreign earnings.

我們有 12.5 億美元的債務將於 2023 年到期。我們第四季度的淨利息支出為 8500 萬美元，使全年的利息支出達到 3.64 億美元。相比之下，2021 年同期分別為 9300 萬美元和 4.24 億美元。在我們就預定的債務到期日做出決定之前，我們預計 2023 年的利息支出將與 2022 年基本保持一致。轉向所得稅。我們在第四季度的有效稅率為 18.1%，這使我們的全年稅率達到 16%，與我們的指導一致。展望 2023 年，我們預計全年有效稅率將增至 17% 左右，反映出對海外收入徵稅更高。

The sum total of these below-the-line items versus the comparable levels in 2022 is a net negative impact on 2023 diluted earnings per share of $0.63.

這些線下項目的總和與 2022 年的可比水平相比，對 2023 年攤薄後每股收益的淨負面影響為 0.63 美元。

And finally, with respect to our outlook for free cash flow, following a strong 2022, we expect cash conversion in 2023 to be better than 100%, roughly in the 105% range, assuming the resumption of Ajax receipts in the first quarter, as I mentioned earlier.

最後，關於我們對自由現金流的展望，在 2022 年表現強勁之後，我們預計 2023 年的現金轉換率將高於 100%，大致在 105% 的範圍內，假設 Ajax 的收入在第一季度恢復，因為我之前提到過。

That concludes my remarks. I'll turn it back over to Phebe.

我的發言到此結束。我會把它轉回給 Phebe。

Thanks, Jason. So let me provide our operating forecast for 2023 with some color around our outlook for each of the business groups and then a company-wide roll-up. In 2023, we expect Aerospace revenue to be around $10.4 billion up between $1.8 billion and $1.9 billion. Margin is expected to be up 140 basis points to 14.6%. Gulfstream deliveries will be around 145, up a little over 20%. This is all consistent with the multiyear forecast we gave you in January of 2021 and at the end of Q2.

謝謝，傑森。因此，讓我提供我們對 2023 年的運營預測，並圍繞我們對每個業務集團的前景進行一些預測，然後是全公司範圍的匯總。到 2023 年，我們預計航空航天收入將在 18 億美元至 19 億美元之間，達到 104 億美元左右。利潤率預計將上升 140 個基點至 14.6%。灣流交付量約為 145 架，增幅略高於 20%。這與我們在 2021 年 1 月和第二季度末給出的多年預測一致。

In Combat systems, at this time last year, we had anticipated revenue to be down slightly in 2023, following a modest decline in 2022 with a return to low single-digit growth later in our planning horizon. Since then, the threat environment has clearly changed. Continuing the better-than-expected performance in 2022, we expect the group to hold steady again in '23, with revenue of $7.3 billion and operating margin once again towards the high end of their reliable 14% to 15% range at 14.7%. The improved outlook is a result of strong order activity we saw in 2022, including the MPF award and growing international demand, particularly the tank order in Poland, which came in sooner than had been anticipated. We're seeing demand signals resulting from the war in Ukraine, but we've only just begun to see that manifest in our backlog at this point.

在戰鬥系統方面，去年這個時候，我們預計收入將在 2022 年小幅下降之後在 2023 年略有下降，並在我們的規劃範圍後期恢復到較低的個位數增長。從那時起，威脅環境發生了明顯變化。繼續 2022 年好於預期的表現，我們預計該集團將在 23 年再次保持穩定，收入為 73 億美元，營業利潤率再次接近 14% 至 15% 可靠區間的高端 14.7%。前景改善是我們在 2022 年看到的強勁訂單活動的結果，包括獲得強積金獎和不斷增長的國際需求，尤其是波蘭的坦克訂單，訂單來得比預期的要早。我們看到了烏克蘭戰爭產生的需求信號，但此時我們才剛剛開始在我們的積壓訂單中看到這一點。

To the extent those demand signals start to convert into order activity, we could see some opportunity for additional revenue in the latter part of the year, particularly in our armaments and ammunition business. As I noted earlier, Marine Group has been on a remarkable growth journey, averaging $600 million a year. Our outlook of $400 million to $500 million per year over time remains unchanged. However, the supply chain constraints of the Virginia program will drive some annual variability this year. As a result, the group's revenue for 2023 will remain essentially flat at $10.9 billion as well their operating margin rate at 8.1%. We anticipate a return to growth in 2024 and 2025 at around $600 million a year. We expect revenue in the range of $12.5 billion to $12.6 billion in the Technologies group.

如果這些需求信號開始轉化為訂單活動，我們可能會在今年下半年看到一些額外收入的機會，特別是在我們的武器和彈藥業務中。正如我之前提到的，Marine Group 一直在經歷非凡的成長之旅，平均每年收入 6 億美元。隨著時間的推移，我們每年 4 億至 5 億美元的前景保持不變。然而，弗吉尼亞計劃的供應鏈限制將導致今年出現一些年度變化。因此，該集團 2023 年的收入將基本持平，為 109 億美元，營業利潤率為 8.1%。我們預計 2024 年和 2025 年將以每年約 6 億美元的速度恢復增長。我們預計技術集團的收入在 125 億美元至 126 億美元之間。

To give you a little color behind this outlook, GDIT will continue to grow at a low single-digit pace consistent with the past 3 years. Mission Systems, however, will be challenged from a revenue perspective. Particularly in the first half of the year as they work through the lingering supply chain issues they've been dealing with for the past 18 months. As a result, their revenue will be down slightly compared with 2022. The resulting shift in the group's revenue mix, with stronger service activity but lower hardware volume was yield an operating margin in the 9.5% range, sustaining their industry-leading performance, albeit slightly lower than 2022.

為了讓您對這一前景有所了解，GDIT 將繼續以與過去 3 年一致的低個位數速度增長。然而，Mission Systems 將從收入的角度受到挑戰。特別是在今年上半年，他們正在努力解決過去 18 個月來一直在處理的揮之不去的供應鏈問題。因此，與 2022 年相比，他們的收入將略有下降。由此產生的集團收入結構的轉變，服務活動增強但硬件數量減少，使營業利潤率保持在 9.5% 左右，從而維持其行業領先的業績，儘管略低於 2022 年。

So for 2023, company-wide, we expect to see approximately $41.2 billion to $41.3 billion of revenue, an increase of almost 5%. We anticipate operating margin of 10.9%, up 20 basis points from 2022. This all was up to a forecast range of $12.60 to $12.65 per fully diluted share. On a quarterly basis, we expect a pattern similar to what we've seen in recent years. With sequential increases in revenue and operating margins throughout the year. As always, this forecast is purely from operations. It assumes we buy only enough shares to hold the share count steady to avoid dilution from option exercises. Beating our EPS guidance must come from outperforming the operating plan and the effective deployment of capital.

因此，到 2023 年，我們預計整個公司的收入將達到約 412 億美元至 413 億美元，增長近 5%。我們預計營業利潤率為 10.9%，比 2022 年高 20 個基點。這一切都達到了每股完全攤薄後 12.60 美元至 12.65 美元的預測範圍。按季度計算，我們預計會出現類似於近年來所見的模式。隨著全年收入和營業利潤率的連續增長。一如既往，這一預測純粹來自運營。它假設我們只購買足夠的股票來保持股票數量穩定，以避免因期權行使而稀釋。超越我們的 EPS 指導必須來自超越運營計劃和有效的資本部署。

Let me close with an observation. Our forecast comes from our operating plan. It is conservative as it must be in this environment of unpredictable financing of the government. However, the threat environment suggests increases in defense spending. In short, I see more opportunity than risk in our forecast.

讓我以一個觀察結束。我們的預測來自我們的運營計劃。它是保守的，因為它必須在這種政府融資不可預測的環境中。然而，威脅環境表明國防開支增加。簡而言之，我在我們的預測中看到的機會多於風險。

With that, I'll turn it over to Howard to start the Q&A.

有了這個，我將把它交給霍華德開始問答。

Thanks, Phebe. (Operator Instructions) Operator, could you please remind participants how to enter the queue?

謝謝，菲比。 （接線員說明）接線員，請您提醒與會者如何進入隊列？

This is the lead operator. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Myles Walton with Wolf Research.

這是主要操作員。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Wolf Research 的 Myles Walton。

I was hoping maybe you could touch on a couple of things. One, Jason, your new role and how you sort of think about balancing the app between the CFO and the operating segment roles and responsibilities with you intend to focus on there. And then maybe on the capital deployment front for '23 at 105%. Obviously, you've got a lot of excess cash. Should we expect you to pick up repurchase activity in '23 versus '22 or relatively similar?

我希望你能談談一些事情。第一，Jason，你的新角色以及你如何考慮平衡 CFO 和運營部門角色和職責之間的應用程序，你打算專注於那裡。然後可能在 23 年的資本部署方面達到 105%。顯然，你有很多多餘的現金。我們是否應該期望您在 23 年與 22 年或相對類似的情況下進行回購活動？

Myles, I think with respect to your first question, looking at the new responsibility and that opportunity. First and foremost, it's important to remember that these businesses are run by 2 excellent and accomplished presidents. And frankly, I have the highest level of confidence in them and their teams. When I look back over recent history in this role, Chris Marzilli really helps steer this business through a period of remarkable change and transformation, not to mention COVID and I don't think, as I look ahead, that this market is going to become any less dynamic.

邁爾斯，關於你的第一個問題，我想看看新的責任和機會。首先，重要的是要記住，這些企業是由 2 位出色而有成就的總裁經營的。坦率地說，我對他們和他們的團隊充滿信心。當我回顧這個角色的近期歷史時，Chris Marzilli 確實幫助引導了這個業務經歷了一段顯著的變革和轉型，更不用說 COVID 了，我認為，展望未來，這個市場將成為任何不那麼有活力。

So I think the focus really is on continuing to make sure that the businesses continue to focus on their bottom line. Earnings and cash as always. But frankly, also finding our way to a sustainable top line growth trajectory, and that will really be the emphasis. In terms of balancing the two, I'm humbled and honored to have this dual responsibility, fortunately entering my tenth role -- tenth year in the role as CFO. So I feel confident about the ability to handle both at the same time.

所以我認為重點確實是繼續確保企業繼續關注他們的底線。一如既往的收入和現金。但坦率地說，還要找到通往可持續收入增長軌蹟的道路，這才是真正的重點。就平衡兩者而言，我很榮幸能承擔雙重責任，幸運地進入我的第十個角色——擔任首席財務官的第十個年頭。所以我對同時處理這兩者的能力充滿信心。

So with respect to our capital deployment, we have -- we'll continue to invest in our business where prudent. We'll continue to maintain our dividend, and we'll repurchase shares accordingly. So I don't see any big change in the priorities for our execution.

因此，就我們的資本部署而言，我們已經 - 我們將繼續在謹慎的情況下投資於我們的業務。我們將繼續維持股息，並相應地回購股票。因此，我認為我們執行的優先級沒有任何大的變化。

Our next question comes from David Strauss with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

Phebe, could you touch on -- you mentioned 3 deliveries that slipped out. Was that customer preference, as that supply chain related? And then it doesn't appear that you're going to -- your prior guidance was 148 deliveries this year. Now you're talking 145. So it doesn't seem any makeup there. And then last thing, the 170, I think you forecasted for '24 deliveries. Does that still hold?

Phebe，你能不能談談——你提到了 3 次交付失敗。客戶偏好與供應鏈相關嗎？然後看起來你不會 - 你之前的指導是今年交付 148 次。現在你說的是145。所以那裡看起來沒有任何化妝。最後一件事，170，我想你預測了 24 次交付。這還成立嗎？

Yes. So let me go in order. We had, as I noted, 3 airplanes have slipped into this quarter. One was simply an issue that we just couldn't get it completed in time and 2 of them were customer preferences for international deliveries. With respect to the production next year, we are confident that we can make that and our trajectory going forward past this year remains the same. So directionally, and we're right on track, and we're comfortable we get there.

是的。所以讓我按順序走。正如我所指出的，我們有 3 架飛機滑入本季度。一個只是我們無法及時完成的問題，其中 2 個是客戶對國際交付的偏好。關於明年的生產，我們有信心能夠做到這一點，並且我們今年的前進軌跡保持不變。所以在方向上，我們在正軌上，我們很高興到達那裡。

Our next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Thanks very much. I wonder if you could talk a little bit more about marine and the supply chain challenges at Electric Boat. And specifically, what we should be looking for in terms of any particular metrics, whether it's hiring or deliveries or certain milestones to get a sense that things are firming there and kind of also what the risk is of further deterioration in schedules.

非常感謝。我想知道您是否可以多談談 Electric Boat 的海事和供應鏈挑戰。具體來說，我們應該根據任何特定指標尋找什麼，無論是招聘、交付還是某些里程碑，以了解那裡的情況是否穩固，以及進度進一步惡化的風險。

So let's deconstruct that. And I think we have to posit a few truth. We went into COVID with scheduled variants on Virginia. Virginia is also about 1/3 of the Electric Boat revenue. COVID had a profound impact on many aspects of our lives, but particularly lasting one on the workforce. We had labor discontinuity throughout the United States, and we also experienced something that we had not anticipated abnormally large retirement of experienced workers.

所以讓我們解構它。我認為我們必須提出一些事實。我們在弗吉尼亞州使用預定的變體進入 COVID。弗吉尼亞也約佔 Electric Boat 收入的 1/3。 COVID 對我們生活的許多方面產生了深遠的影響，但對勞動力的影響尤其持久。我們在整個美國都有勞動力中斷，我們也經歷了一些我們沒有預料到的有經驗的工人異常大量退休的事情。

In a business that is heavily manpower dependent. These impacts had a disproportionate effect on additional schedule variants. We are working with the Navy who's been quite active and engaged in helping develop a plan and a really detailed action list on how to address these issues and ship building and the supply chain are fixed by incremental improvements over time. So what do we see at the moment? We see stabilization in the workforce. I think across the nation, we've got a little bit better labor dynamics than we did immediately coming out of COVID. We also have additional experience in what some of the challenges have been.

在嚴重依賴人力的企業中。這些影響對額外的時間表變體產生了不成比例的影響。我們正在與海軍合作，他們一直非常積極地參與幫助制定計劃和一份非常詳細的行動清單，說明如何解決這些問題，並且隨著時間的推移逐步改進造船和供應鏈。那麼我們現在看到了什麼？我們看到勞動力趨於穩定。我認為在全國范圍內，我們的勞動力動態比剛剛擺脫 COVID 時要好一些。我們也對一些挑戰有更多的經驗。

So I look at it. This year will give us a bit of a chance to dig further see funds to the velocity of the material coming into Electric Boat. And that ought to be a good thing for all involved despite and notwithstanding the considerable issues around schedule. I would note that the Submarine Industrial base for 2 submarines last year, and we're going to deliver 2 more this year. So I think maintaining that cadence of delivery is important.

所以我看著它。今年我們將有機會進一步挖掘資金，了解材料進入 Electric Boat 的速度。儘管日程安排存在相當大的問題，但這對所有相關人員來說應該是一件好事。我要指出的是，去年 2 艘潛艇的潛艇工業基地，今年我們將再交付 2 艘。所以我認為保持交付的節奏很重要。

But in much of shipbuilding, milestones are difficult to identify really until you get the ship in the customers' hands. So as I said, we're working very closely with the Navy to ensure that we could just get back some of that schedule variance on the remainder of the Block 4 ships and on the Block 5 ships.

但在大部分造船業中，在將船交到客戶手中之前，很難真正確定里程碑。因此，正如我所說，我們正在與海軍密切合作，以確保我們能夠在剩餘的 Block 4 艦艇和 Block 5 艦艇上恢復部分進度差異。

Okay. Great. And maybe just to follow up specifically on that. Most of the discussion -- our discussion today and then the trade press has been about Virginia. How's the Columbia schedule holding up?

好的。偉大的。也許只是專門跟進。大多數討論——我們今天的討論以及隨後的貿易媒體都是關於弗吉尼亞的。哥倫比亞的日程安排如何？

So we're about 30% done on the first ship, and we are ahead of the contract schedule.

所以我們在第一艘船上完成了大約 30%，而且我們提前了合同時間表。

Our next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

Maybe just to stay on Seth's line of question just on Marine. Maybe you could just -- there's been a lot written about just the industrial base, and you just mentioned it. How are you thinking about just maybe the CapEx profile and in particular, things start to get unveiled on ACs, what the plans might be there? Just should we expect any further step-up in CapEx?

也許只是停留在 Seth 關於 Marine 的問題上。也許你可以 - 已經有很多關於工業基礎的文章，而你剛剛提到了它。您如何考慮資本支出概況，特別是，事情開始在 AC 上公佈，可能有哪些計劃？我們是否應該期待資本支出進一步增加？

Not with respect to ACs. And I think we have, as I've said on earlier calls and to many of you in person, we'll just take our lead from our Navy customer on how they want us to respond to all of this. So this is really an intergovernmental series of discussions and agreements. And we will, of course, support whatever the Navy plan is going forward.

與 AC 無關。我認為我們已經，正如我在之前的電話中和你們中的許多人所說的那樣，我們將根據我們的海軍客戶的意見，了解他們希望我們如何應對所有這一切。所以這實際上是一系列政府間討論和協議。當然，我們將支持海軍未來的任何計劃。

Okay. And just as a quick follow-up, just maybe just in general on the supply chain. You talked about the constraints in marine and some of the issues at Mission Systems has it gotten worse submission? Or do you think it's actually kind of stabilized? And this is just -- it is what it is, what's going on in the marketplace?

好的。作為快速跟進，可能只是在供應鏈上進行一般性跟進。你談到了海洋的限制和任務系統的一些問題，提交情況是否變得更糟？或者你認為它實際上有點穩定？這就是——它就是這樣，市場上發生了什麼？

So I think with respect to Mission Systems, we have to really focus on what it is we're talking about here, which is really chips and microelectronics, right? So unlike some of the other parts of the business, which are heavily labor and availability of workforce driven. So this is really, obviously, for Mission Systems an issue that's impacting industries much broader than just us or us in the aerospace and defense side.

所以我認為關於任務系統，我們必須真正關注我們在這裡談論的是什麼，這實際上是芯片和微電子，對嗎？因此，與業務的其他一些部分不同，這些部分由大量勞動力和勞動力驅動。因此，對於 Mission Systems 來說，這顯然是一個影響行業的問題，而不僅僅是我們或我們在航空航天和國防方面的影響。

And I think when these issues first surfaced, Mission Systems did a really nice job of developing workarounds, right? Finding alternate sourcing, certifying substitute parts and so on. So all of those actions were predicated on the expectation that the supply chain would kind of come through this and get over the hump within, call it, a year plus or minus. But frankly, as we've continued to work our way through it, it's become clear that we're not always at the top of the priority list for some of these sources of supply. So when they saw the bottlenecks we were dealing with were going to persist somewhat longer than expected, the team really adapted to this new normal with a whole new set of tactics.

而且我認為當這些問題第一次浮出水面時，Mission Systems 在開發解決方法方面做得非常好，對吧？尋找替代來源、認證替代零件等。因此，所有這些行動都是基於這樣的預期，即供應鏈會在某種程度上度過難關，並在一年左右的時間裡度過難關。但坦率地說，隨著我們繼續努力解決這個問題，很明顯我們並不總是在其中一些供應來源的優先列表中排在首位。因此，當他們看到我們正在處理的瓶頸持續時間比預期的要長一些時，團隊才真正適應了這一新常態，並採用了一套全新的策略。

That includes procuring key components with longer lead times anywhere from 12 to 18 or even 24 months. As well as working with key suppliers to improve the forecasting that we were giving them and the reliability of demand so that they could have confidence in where we were going and allocate additional capacity to us and our priorities. So all of that is in place and underway. As you might imagine, some of those things take a little longer to yield results. That's why we're expecting that to kind of come through in the second half of this year.

這包括以 12 到 18 個月甚至 24 個月的更長交貨期採購關鍵部件。以及與主要供應商合作，改進我們提供給他們的預測和需求的可靠性，以便他們對我們的發展方向有信心，並為我們和我們的優先事項分配額外的產能。因此，所有這些都已到位並正在進行中。正如您想像的那樣，其中一些事情需要更長的時間才能產生結果。這就是為什麼我們預計這會在今年下半年實現。

But we do feel like they've got a good plan in place. They've taken great corrective actions, and we just need to see that all sort of roll out to get to the other side of this, but it's likely to be toward the second half back into this year before that all takes hold.

但我們確實覺得他們已經制定了一個好的計劃。他們已經採取了很好的糾正措施，我們只需要看到所有這些措施的推出就可以解決這個問題，但很可能要到下半年才能恢復到今年，然後一切才能站穩腳跟。

Our next question comes from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

Yes. You've talked about this a little bit in your prepared remarks about the impact that the Ukraine could potentially have on land systems. Maybe from a bigger strategic point of view, it seems like in the past, the logic has always been the Army was a bill payer for the Navy and the Air Force. Is that -- are we learning a different lesson now out of the Ukraine? And what kind of implications potentially does that have for your land systems business?

是的。你在準備好的關於烏克蘭可能對陸地系統產生的影響的評論中談到了這一點。也許從更大的戰略角度來看，過去的邏輯似乎一直是陸軍為海軍和空軍買單。那是——我們現在是否從烏克蘭吸取了不同的教訓？這對您的陸地系統業務有什麼樣的潛在影響？

So if you look at the services funding over, I'd say, in the modern air post World War II, the Army gets funded when they're tactical challenges and tactical problems, either a hot war, relatively cold war preparedness. This is an issue where we've got both strategic challenges in which the Navy and the Air Force tend to get funded. And as I noted, the threat environment has materially changed. So that has driven increased interest in a number of Army and land forces capabilities. And as we've begun to see those show up in our in our backlog and in our order book, but we've got more room to grow and more room to go there as some of this demand converts into actual orders.

因此，如果你看一下服務資金，我想說，在二戰後的現代空軍中，陸軍在遇到戰術挑戰和戰術問題時獲得資金，無論是熱戰還是相對冷戰的準備。在這個問題上，我們面臨著海軍和空軍往往會獲得資助的戰略挑戰。正如我所指出的，威脅環境已經發生了重大變化。因此，這引起了人們對許多陸軍和陸軍能力的興趣增加。當我們開始看到這些出現在我們的積壓訂單和訂單簿中時，但是隨著一些需求轉化為實際訂單，我們有更多的增長空間和更多的空間去那裡。

So when I think about what's going on in Europe, our European combat vehicle business has done quite well in securing a number of contracts, both historically but increasingly recently and on a goal -- what we expect on a going-forward basis. They've been active in Poland, Romania, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Sweden, Luxembourg. By the way, I wrote all those down because that's a lot of countries. So I think the closer you are to the threat, the more urgent you feel your funding requirements. So all of which is to say, we have changed our expectations for Combat Systems growth.

因此，當我考慮歐洲正在發生的事情時，我們的歐洲戰車業務在獲得許多合同方面做得很好，無論是歷史上的，還是最近越來越多的，以及我們在未來的基礎上所期望的目標。他們一直活躍在波蘭、羅馬尼亞、瑞士、德國、丹麥、西班牙、瑞典、盧森堡。順便說一句，我把所有這些都寫下來了，因為那是很多國家。所以我認為你離威脅越近，你就越覺得資金需求緊迫。所以所有這一切都是說，我們已經改變了對 Combat Systems 增長的預期。

By the way, overarching all of this is a need to increase our ammunition and projectile output, and we've been working with the Army for the last 3, 4, 5 months on exactly that kind of plan. So as we've always positive, the threat environment really drives this demand for defense products and we're seeing some of that now.

順便說一下，所有這一切的首要任務是增加我們的彈藥和彈丸輸出，過去 3、4、5 個月我們一直在與陸軍合作制定此類計劃。因此，正如我們一直積極的那樣，威脅環境確實推動了對國防產品的需求，我們現在看到了其中的一些。

Our next question comes from Jason Gursky with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。

I want to take the opportunity to ask you a question about the Technologies Group. I know you've been in the seat for just a small amount of time, but I'm curious to know as you settle into your seat, the kinds of investments that you think you might want to make either in technologies or new products and services or in processes BD in order to accelerate revenue. Just kind of get your first impressions on the needs there in the group and what might change with you now taking over leadership of that group.

我想藉此機會問你一個關於 Technologies Group 的問題。我知道您入座的時間很短，但我很想知道當您入座時，您認為您可能希望在技術或新產品方面進行哪些投資，以及服務或流程 BD 以加速收入。只是讓您對團隊中的需求有第一印象，以及隨著您現在接管該團隊的領導而可能發生的變化。

Sure. So I think the way to think about this group between GDIT and Mission Systems technologies taken together, is that we currently are and have been for quite some time, in a model and of the capability set that a lot of the peer companies out there are trying to get to. That is a well-balanced and comprehensive set of offerings between the traditional federal IT services offerings as well as cyber hardware and other elements of that portfolio. And so I don't think we have to necessarily play catch up as much in that game. I think there's always opportunities to refine and enhance the portfolio.

當然。因此，我認為將 GDIT 和 Mission Systems 技術結合在一起來考慮這個群體的方式是，我們目前已經並且已經存在了很長一段時間，在一個模型和許多同行公司的能力集中試圖到達。這是傳統聯邦 IT 服務產品以及網絡硬件和該產品組合的其他元素之間的一套均衡而全面的產品。所以我認為我們不必在那場比賽中追趕。我認為總是有機會完善和增強投資組合。

As I mentioned earlier, this is not going to stop being a dynamic environment. We are, as always, have continued to invest internally in new technology capabilities. That will continue to be the case. As you know, I'll say what I know Phebe would say if she were talking right now. We're not going to speculate about M&A. There's always the possibility for bolt-on acquisitions. I would note, by the way, since you brought up the point that since we acquired CSRA in 2018 and essentially transformed the face of this group with the size and capability of our federal IT services business. There have been -- if I look at GDIT's competitor group, call it, the top 5 or 6 main peers, there have been some 40 to 45 acquisitions in that space that those companies have taken on. And we have not done any, we've done a couple of small bolt-ons in Mission Systems during that time, but nothing in GDIT space.

正如我之前提到的，這不會停止成為一個動態環境。我們一如既往地繼續在內部投資於新技術能力。情況將繼續如此。如你所知，如果 Phebe 現在在說話，我會說我知道她會說的話。我們不會猜測併購。補強收購的可能性總是存在的。順便說一句，我要指出的是，自從您提出這一點以來，我們在 2018 年收購了 CSRA，並通過我們聯邦 IT 服務業務的規模和能力從根本上改變了這個集團的面貌。已經 - 如果我看看 GDIT 的競爭對手群體，稱之為前 5 或 6 個主要同行，這些公司已經在該領域進行了大約 40 到 45 次收購。我們什麼也沒做，在那段時間我們在任務系統中做了一些小的補強，但在 GDIT 空間中什麼也沒做。

And so it's interesting to see how the others are behaving in the aftermath of that activity and a lot of the consolidation that's happened in the industry. But I think we put ourselves in very good stead, and we see a lot of others following suit. So I don't think there's a massive sea change in what we have planned ahead, but we'll continue to focus on maintaining our leading position in the market.

因此，有趣的是看看其他人在該活動之後的表現以及行業中發生的許多整合。但我認為我們把自己放在了很好的位置，我們看到很多其他人效仿。所以我認為我們未來的計劃不會發生巨大的變化，但我們將繼續專注於保持我們在市場上的領先地位。

Our next question comes from Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cai von Rumohr 和 Cowen。

So you margin was up a little bit sequentially in at Gulfstream and yet my understanding was you had some software warranty charges in the second and third quarter associated with the G500 and G600. So were there any other -- what were the reason the margins weren't a bit better there in aerospace?

所以你在灣流的利潤率連續上升了一點，但我的理解是你在第二和第三季度有一些與 G500 和 G600 相關的軟件保修費用。那麼有沒有其他 - 航空航天領域的利潤率沒有好一點的原因是什麼？

The margins are pretty darn good. We have performed what we had told you. And so we were pretty pleased with that. I would note that one of the headwinds is R&D. So the additional work that has been required from the airworthiness directive and the new FAA requirements as a result of the MAX have driven increased R&D. And we'll continue to see some of that and then that will begin to unwind. But I think those are very strong margins and better that we had anticipated in our guidance to you.

利潤率非常好。我們已經執行了我們告訴過你的事情。所以我們對此非常滿意。我會注意到其中一個不利因素是研發。因此，適航指令要求的額外工作和 MAX 導致的新 FAA 要求推動了研發的增加。我們將繼續看到其中的一些，然後將開始放鬆。但我認為這些利潤率非常高，而且比我們在給你的指導中預期的要好。

Okay. Great. And Jason, the guide for Mission Systems margins is down over 200 bps from where you've been. Once things start to sort out, where do you see Mission Systems margins can go? Can they go back to where they were?

好的。偉大的。 Jason，Mission Systems 利潤率指南比您之前的水平下降了 200 多個基點。一旦事情開始解決，您認為 Mission Systems 的利潤率會走向何方？他們能回到原來的地方嗎？

So I want to make sure I think you're saying technologies as a whole because we don't really give -- or business unit specific margin guidance within the group. But given what you're saying, I think if you look back to prior to the CSRA acquisition, when the IT services side of the business became, frankly, our largest business group and the lion's share, the sort of 2/3, if you will, or more of the technologies grew.

所以我想確保我認為你說的是整個技術，因為我們並沒有真正給出 - 或集團內業務部門特定的利潤率指導。但鑑於你所說的，我想如果你回顧一下收購 CSRA 之前，坦率地說，當業務的 IT 服務方面成為我們最大的業務集團和最大的份額時，大約 2/3，如果你會的，或者更多的技術發展了。

We used to -- the combined margin of those businesses used to be in the call it the low double-digit range, it's usually between 10% and 11% on a fairly consistent basis. Since we acquired CSRA, we've averaged over the past 5 years, 9.8% margin for the group. So what we're seeing right now is really just a shift in the moment where we've had GDIT come through that significant integration effort for the first couple of years followed immediately on the footsteps of that with the impacts of COVID, they've really embarked on a nice steady trajectory now of low single-digit growth for several years now, and we expect to see that continue.

我們曾經 - 這些業務的合併利潤率過去稱為低兩位數範圍，通常在相當一致的基礎上介於 10% 和 11% 之間。自從我們收購 CSRA 以來，我們在過去 5 年的平均利潤率為 9.8%。因此，我們現在所看到的實際上只是在我們讓 GDIT 在最初幾年進行重大整合工作的那一刻發生的轉變，緊隨其後的是 COVID 的影響，他們已經幾年來，確實走上了一個不錯的穩定軌道，保持低個位數增長，我們希望看到這種情況繼續下去。

As Mission Systems in the moment is dealing with the supply chain issues that have been, I think, well addressed, their volume is down a bit. So what we're seeing in terms of the group's margin, aggregate margin, is really nothing more than a shift in the mix between the 2. So that's with the increased service side of the business and the lower volumes on the product and hardware side of the business. So as Mission Systems comes through this and gets back on track to a growth level, which we do expect to see happen once they come through these issues. You ought to see the margin on an aggregate basis, tick back up.

由於 Mission Systems 目前正在處理供應鏈問題，我認為這些問題已經得到很好的解決，因此它們的數量有所下降。因此，我們所看到的集團利潤率、總利潤率，實際上只不過是兩者之間組合的轉變。這與業務服務方面的增加以及產品和硬件方面的銷量下降有關的業務。因此，隨著 Mission Systems 渡過難關並重回增長軌道，我們確實希望在他們渡過這些問題後看到這種情況發生。您應該看到總體利潤率，向上打勾。

And oh, by the way, that's not -- shouldn't overlook the fact that GDIT on its own is continuing to improve and harvest its margins as it grows. I think I said before, they had their highest margin as a business since we acquired CSRA and their highest earnings contribution to the company ever. So everything, I think, is headed in the right direction, just got to come through the supply chain issues at Mission Systems, and that will help influence the mix. And we ought to see a trend back up toward the 10% level over time.

哦，順便說一下，這不是——不應該忽視這樣一個事實，即 GDIT 本身正在繼續改善並隨著它的增長而收穫利潤。我想我之前說過，自我們收購 CSRA 以來，他們作為一家企業的利潤率是最高的，而且他們對公司的盈利貢獻是有史以來最高的。因此，我認為一切都朝著正確的方向發展，只需解決 Mission Systems 的供應鏈問題，這將有助於影響組合。隨著時間的推移，我們應該會看到回升至 10% 水平的趨勢。

Our next question comes from Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Pete Skibitski。

Phebe, just following on to Ron's question earlier on combat and that was standing the flat outlook for this year, but you talked about the international demand, and it seemed like Congress added quite a bit of money for Stryker and Abrams to the '23 budget. So can you give us any sense of kind of the CAGR that you think is a reasonable expectation after 2023 when things begin to -- or when the demand begins to actually convert for you?

Phebe，剛剛回答了 Ron 早些時候關於戰鬥的問題，今年的前景持平，但你談到了國際需求，國會似乎在 23 年的預算中為 Stryker 和 Abrams 增加了相當多的資金.那麼，您能否給我們任何一種您認為在 2023 年事情開始 - 或者當需求開始真正為您轉變時是合理預期的複合年增長率？

So I think what we're looking at now is low single-digit growth. So if we see anything over time that accelerates that, we'll certainly let you know that that's our best planning in the moment in consultation with our customer.

所以我認為我們現在看到的是低個位數的增長。因此，如果我們隨著時間的推移看到任何加速這種情況的情況，我們一定會告訴您這是我們目前與客戶協商後的最佳計劃。

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe overall on the defense portfolio as a whole, all 3 segments. When you think about it, you're guiding the business flat on the top line perspective and EBIT as well. The budget is up 10, and you have some pretty good programs in there. How do you think about that delta and when it catches up to the budget and EBIT growth resumes?

也許整個國防組合作為一個整體，所有 3 個部分。當你考慮它時，你是在指導業務在頂線視角和息稅前收益方面持平。預算增加了 10，而且你有一些非常好的項目。您如何看待這個增量以及何時趕上預算和 EBIT 增長恢復？

So I think that's more in '24. One of the big issues there, as I said, is Virginia. And -- but look, the way I look at the defense portfolio, we have an extremely strong backlog and now it's just a question of executing. Executing across that portfolio. So I'm not too worried about growth on the defense side at all, nor on the aerospace side. There is one thing that I think we're focused on. We should be focused on. And I neglected to mention this earlier, but with respect to execution, one of the things that we can do on Virginia and frankly, at EB in general, is to continue to improve our operating performance. That provides us more ability to cover some of the perturbations that are coming out of the supply chain. So I really think about all of this as execution. Growth comes when it comes. We've got the backlog to support it. And so I like the position we're in, frankly.

所以我認為 24 年更多。正如我所說，那裡的大問題之一是弗吉尼亞。而且 - 但是看，我看待國防組合的方式，我們有非常多的積壓工作，現在只是執行的問題。在該投資組合中執行。所以我根本不太擔心國防方面的增長，也不太擔心航空航天方面的增長。我認為我們關注的是一件事。我們應該重點關注。我之前沒有提到這一點，但關於執行，我們可以在弗吉尼亞做的事情之一，坦率地說，在整個 EB，就是繼續提高我們的運營績效。這使我們更有能力應對來自供應鏈的一些擾動。所以我真的認為所有這些都是執行。成長來了就來了。我們有積壓的工作來支持它。所以坦率地說，我喜歡我們所處的位置。

Great. And then if I could ask one more. I don't know if you provided it. Can you give us an update on the G700, G800 certification processes?

偉大的。然後我能不能再問一個。不知道你有沒有提供。您能否介紹一下 G700、G800 認證流程的最新情況？

So we still expect the G700 to convert -- get certified this summer. And the G800 will be about 6 months after that, so we don't see any change in that. And the relationship has been going very well with the FAA. So we are continuing to look forward to finishing all the certification processes. Now that I will tell you that is outside our complete control, a lot of this is FAA resources and their ability to focus, given all the other demands that they have on them, but so far so good.

所以我們仍然希望 G700 能夠轉換——在今年夏天獲得認證。 G800 將在那之後大約 6 個月推出，因此我們看不到任何變化。與美國聯邦航空局的關係一直進展順利。因此，我們繼續期待完成所有認證流程。現在我要告訴你，這不在我們的完全控制範圍內，其中很多是 FAA 資源和他們專注的能力，考慮到他們對他們的所有其他要求，但到目前為止一切順利。

Our next question comes from Ken Herbert with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Ken Herbert。

Guess, we lost him.

猜猜，我們失去了他。

Sorry about that. I was muted. I wanted to first ask, within Aerospace, really good growth in the services business. What's the outlook for services growth in '23 as part of the aerospace guide? And can you talk a little bit about investments that you're making in that business?

對於那個很抱歉。我被靜音了。我想首先問一下，在航空航天領域，服務業務的增長真的很好。作為航空航天指南的一部分，23 年的服務增長前景如何？你能談談你在那個行業所做的投資嗎？

We expect low single-digit growth in our service side. And we continue to invest prudently when we see the need for more service capacity. But at the moment, we're pretty -- nothing really outstanding in that regard. You've got the capacity to accommodate what we see as reasonable steady growth.

我們預計我們的服務方面將實現低個位數增長。當我們看到需要更多服務能力時，我們會繼續謹慎投資。但目前，我們很漂亮——在這方面沒有什麼特別出色的。你有能力適應我們認為合理的穩定增長。

Okay. That's helpful. And just a quick clarification on the 700 certification this summer. As obviously, you commented you're working with the FDA closely and a lot of this is -- or some of this is out of your control. How would you characterize your visibility or sort of the ongoing risks around I guess, FAA capacity to support that? I mean do you feel like you're well through that risk retirement? Or is there still substantial uncertainty and risk associated with that summer time frame?

好的。這很有幫助。並簡要說明今年夏天的 700 認證。很明顯，你評論說你正在與 FDA 密切合作，其中很多是 - 或者其中一些是你無法控制的。您如何描述您的可見性或我猜想的 FAA 支持能力的持續風險？我的意思是，您是否覺得自己在風險退休後一切都好？或者是否仍然存在與該夏季時間框架相關的重大不確定性和風險？

I think the FAA has done a good job managing its portfolio and a series of complex and multifaceted requirements. And so far, we are sticking to what we believe is a reasonable expectation for the certification.

我認為美國聯邦航空局在管理其投資組合以及一系列複雜和多方面的要求方面做得很好。到目前為止，我們堅持我們認為對認證的合理期望。

Our next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

Just a couple of quick ones from me, Phebe. First of all, on Ukraine, it looks like they're going to get Abrams tanks. At what point does capacity in some form or other particularly staffing become an issue? And then secondly, just for Jason, what sort of book-to-bill have you assumed in aerospace for 2023 in your cash flow guidance?

Phebe，我只是幾個快速的。首先，在烏克蘭，看起來他們會得到艾布拉姆斯坦克。在什麼時候某種形式的能力或其他特別是人員配備成為問題？其次，僅針對 Jason，您在現金流量指南中假設 2023 年航空航天業的訂單出貨量是多少？

Staffing is not an issue here. There is plenty of capacity on the combat vehicle side, both tracked and wheeled. So to the extent that the U.S. government intends to execute any contracts with respect to some of these bilateral agreements that they are developing. We can-- it's well within the capacity of the industrial base to accommodate.

人員配備在這裡不是問題。戰車方面有足夠的容量，包括履帶式和輪式。因此，就美國政府打算就他們正在製定的其中一些雙邊協議執行任何合同而言。我們可以——這完全在工業基地的容納能力之內。

And then, Rob, with respect to your second question, as it relates to aerospace book-to-bill, much like going into 2022, we've assumed a return to a 1:1 book-to-bill, and that is one of the predicates for our cash flow forecast. So to the extent they outperform, obviously, that could provide some upside.

然後，Rob，關於你的第二個問題，因為它與航空航天訂單出貨率有關，就像進入 2022 年一樣，我們假設將恢復到 1:1 的訂單出貨率，這是一個我們的現金流量預測的謂詞。因此，在某種程度上，它們的表現顯然可以提供一些上行空間。

Our next question comes from Scott Deuschle with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Scott Deuschle。

Phebe, you touched on it a bit in your prepared remarks. I was curious if you could comment a bit more in depth on the sales pipeline at Gulfstream and the latest trends you're seeing there, both from individual buyers and the corporate buyers. And then for Jason, I was just wondering if you could identify what the unbilled receivable balance was on Ajax at the end of the year. And how much of that you expect to burn down this year?

Phebe，你在準備好的發言中稍微提到了這一點。我很好奇你能否更深入地評論一下灣流的銷售渠道以及你在那裡看到的最新趨勢，包括個人買家和企業買家。然後對於 Jason，我只是想知道您是否可以確定 Ajax 年底未開票的應收賬款餘額是多少。你預計今年會燒掉多少？

With respect to our pipeline, I noted that it remains strong. I would also say that corporate America has been very active, both public and private companies, high net worth individuals. Europe remains slow. Middle East just picked up Southeast Asia, let's say, not China, has been increasingly active. So we've got a good demand across all of our offerings in all of our aircraft.

關於我們的管道，我注意到它仍然很強大。我還要說的是，美國企業一直非常活躍，無論是上市公司還是私營公司，以及高淨值個人。歐洲仍然緩慢。中東剛剛拿起東南亞，比方說，而不是中國，已經越來越活躍。因此，我們對所有飛機的所有產品都有很好的需求。

And then on your second question, as it relates to the Ajax unbilled, that's at the end of the year, roughly $1.7 billion is where we stand right now. I don't want to get into the specifics of how much we expect to collect this year. That's part of ongoing discussions with that customer. But needless to say, as I mentioned in my remarks, we do have good reason to expect those cash receipts to resume before the end of this quarter. And so we'll start to see that unbilled balance come down.

然後關於你的第二個問題，因為它與 Ajax 未開票有關，那是在今年年底，我們現在所處的位置大約為 17 億美元。我不想詳細說明我們今年希望收集多少。這是與該客戶正在進行的討論的一部分。但不用說，正如我在發言中提到的那樣，我們確實有充分的理由預計這些現金收入將在本季度末之前恢復。因此，我們將開始看到未開票餘額下降。

Operator, this is Mr. Rubel. We'll take one more question, please. And then we'll wrap the call up.

接線員，我是魯貝爾先生。請再回答一個問題。然後我們將結束通話。

Very good. Our final question comes from Robert Spingarn with Melius Research.

非常好。我們的最後一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Spingarn。

Phebe, going back to an earlier question on entry into service for 700 and 800. When would -- might we expect the R&D to decline? I don't know how much the 400 would use? And what would the incremental margins at Gulfstream look like once that happens. I imagine that's 24 or is it 25?

Phebe，回到之前關於 700 和 800 投入使用的問題。我們什麼時候可以預計研發會下降？不知道400能用多少？一旦發生這種情況，灣流的增量利潤率會是什麼樣子。我想那是 24 還是 25？

So I think we expect R&D to begin to go down at the end of next year. And look, we have Gulfstream is an extremely high-performing operationally strong company. And so I think we have demonstrated incremental improvement in margins as our operating efficiency and discipline in our supply chain, engineering. And really on the shop floor, all of that has improved. So I think there's upward over time, margin opportunity, but we're not going to get into parsing specifics until we have good clarity. But we're very comfortable that we will improve steadily and repeatedly.

所以我認為我們預計研發將在明年年底開始下降。看，我們有灣流是一家表現非常出色的運營強大的公司。因此，我認為我們已經證明，隨著我們在供應鍊和工程方面的運營效率和紀律，我們已經證明了利潤率的逐步提高。真正在車間，所有這些都得到了改善。所以我認為隨著時間的推移會有上升的機會，但在我們非常清楚之前我們不會進入解析細節。但我們很高興我們會穩步不斷地改進。

Okay. And just a clarification on the FAA. You talked about it earlier. Are we still -- are they still in the discovery process as they evolve their system after what's happened at peers over the past couple of years? Or is there a set process that is in stone at this point?

好的。只是對美國聯邦航空局的澄清。你之前談到過它。我們是否仍然 - 在過去幾年同行發生的事情之後，他們是否仍在發展他們的系統時處於發現過程中？或者在這一點上是否有固定的流程？

Yes. I think that that's a broader question than I'm able to answer. What I can tell you is that our relationship and working relationship with the FAA has matured significantly. And we think we all have a very clear understanding of what the new requirements are and how to execute them.

是的。我認為這是一個比我能夠回答的更廣泛的問題。我可以告訴你的是，我們與美國聯邦航空局的關係和工作關係已經顯著成熟。我們認為我們都非常清楚地了解新要求是什麼以及如何執行它們。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝你。

And thank you all for joining us today on this call. As a reminder, please refer to the General Dynamics website for the fourth quarter earnings release, highlights presentation and outlook. If you have any additional questions, I can be reached later today on my office at (703) 876-3117. Operator?

感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。提醒一下，請參閱 General Dynamics 網站了解第四季度收益發布、亮點介紹和展望。如果您有任何其他問題，今天晚些時候可以撥打 (703) 876-3117 到我的辦公室聯繫我。操作員？

There are no further questions at this time, which concludes today's conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

現在沒有其他問題了，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。