通用動力 (GD) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the General Dynamics third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加通用動力公司 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I'd now like to turn the conference over to Nicole Shelton, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Nicole Shelton。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the General Dynamics third quarter 2025 conference call. Any forward-looking statements made today represent our estimates regarding the company's outlook. These estimates are subject to some risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。歡迎參加通用動力公司 2025 年第三季電話會議。今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述均代表我們對公司前景的估計。這些估計值受到一些風險和不確定性的影響。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊包含在公司的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中。

We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these non-GAAP measures including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see the slides that accompany this webcast, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website, investorrelations.gd.com. On the call today are Phebe Novakovic, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Danny Deep, Executive Vice President, Global Operations; and Kim Kuryea, Chief Financial Officer.

我們也將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 指標的更多披露信息，包括與可比公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的調節表，請參閱本次網絡直播的幻燈片，這些幻燈片可在我們網站 investorrelations.gd.com 的投資者關係頁面獲取。今天參加電話會議的嘉賓包括董事長兼執行長 Phebe Novakovic、全球營運執行副總裁 Danny Deep 和財務長 Kim Kuryea。

I will now turn the call over to Phebe.

現在我將把電話轉給 Phebe。

Thank you, Nicole. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for being with us. Earlier this morning, we reported earnings of $3.88 per diluted share on revenue of $12.9 billion, operating earnings of $1.3 billion and net income of $1.59 billion. Across the company, revenue increased $1.24 billion, a strong 10.6%, led by a 30.3% increase in our Aerospace segment and a 13.8% increase in Marine Systems over the year ago quarter.

謝謝你，妮可。大家早安，感謝你們的來訪。今天早些時候，我們報告每股攤薄收益 3.88 美元，營收 129 億美元，營業收益 13 億美元，淨收入 15.9 億美元。整個公司的收入增加了 12.4 億美元，成長了 10.6%，其中航空航天部門的收入增加了 30.3%，海洋系統部門的收入成長了 13.8%。

Importantly, operating earnings of $1.3 billion, are up $150 million or 12.7%. Similarly, net earnings increased $129 million or 13.9% and earnings per share are up $0.53 or 15.8% over the year ago quarter. On a year-to-date basis, revenue of $38.2 billion, is up 11% over last year. Operating earnings of $3.9 billion, are up 15.7%. Net earnings of $3.07 billion, are up 16.4% and earnings per share are up 19%.

重要的是，營業利潤為 13 億美元，成長了 1.5 億美元，即 12.7%。同樣，淨收益比去年同期增加了 1.29 億美元，即 13.9%，每股收益增加了 0.53 美元，即 15.8%。今年迄今為止，營收為 382 億美元，比去年成長 11%。營業利潤為 39 億美元，成長 15.7%。淨收益為 30.7 億美元，成長 16.4%，每股收益成長 19%。

As an aside, we beat consensus estimates by $0.18 on higher-than-anticipated revenue and modestly better operating margins. My reaction to the quarter is best reflected in thoughts about the sequential comparison. In the second quarter of this year, we had very good results, which were well received by investors. This quarter was even better.

順便說一句，由於收入高於預期且營業利潤率略有提高，我們的業績超出普遍預期 0.18 美元。我對本季的反應最好地體現在對連續比較的想法上。今年第二季度，我們的業績非常好，並得到了投資者的一致好評。本季的情況甚至更好。

The two quarters enjoyed similar revenue, but operating margin improved by 30 basis points, and we generated significantly higher free cash flow, as you will hear in greater detail from Kim. Robust order momentum continued in the quarter, yielding record backlog. In short, we had a superb quarter from my perspective. With that, let's move into a discussion of the operating segments. First, Aerospace.

這兩個季度的收入相似，但營業利潤率提高了 30 個基點，而且我們產生了顯著更高的自由現金流，您將從 Kim 那裡聽到更詳細的信息。本季訂單動能持續強勁，積壓訂單量創下紀錄。簡而言之，從我的角度來看，我們度過了一個非常棒的季度。接下來，讓我們開始討論經營分部。第一，航空航天。

Aerospace performed very well in the quarter to say the least. It had revenue of $3.2 billion and operating earnings of $430 million with a 13.3% operating margin. Revenue is a dramatic $752 million more than last year's third quarter, a 30.3% increase. The revenue increase was led by new aircraft deliveries, higher special mission volume and the services business at both Gulfstream and Jet.

至少可以說，航空航天業在本季表現非常好。其營收為 32 億美元，營業利潤為 4.3 億美元，營業利益率為 13.3%。營收比去年第三季大幅增加了 7.52 億美元，增幅為 30.3%。收入成長主要得益於新飛機交付、特殊任務量的增加以及灣流和捷特航空的服務業務。

Similarly, operating earnings of $430 million show a staggering 41% increase over the year ago quarter. The 13.3% operating margin is 100 basis points better than a year ago. We delivered 39 aircraft in the quarter, 11 more deliveries than a year ago, including 13 G700. It is important to note that this is the first quarter where we had no deliveries of the high gross margin G650ER compared to nine in the year ago quarter. We also made three initial deliveries of the G800 in the quarter.

同樣，4.3 億美元的營業利潤比去年同期成長了驚人的 41%。13.3%的營業利益率比一年前高出100個基點。本季我們交付了 39 架飛機，比去年同期多交付了 11 架，其中包括 13 架 G700。值得注意的是，這是我們第一季沒有交付高毛利率的 G650ER，而去年同期我們交付了 9 架。本季我們也首次交付了三台 G800。

This plan will provide the majority of delivery growth in Q4. For the year-to-date, Aerospace revenue is up $1.82 billion, an increase of 24.2%. Operating earnings are up $386 million, an increase of 43.9%.

該計劃將為第四季度的交付成長提供大部分動力。今年迄今為止，航空航太收入增加了 18.2 億美元，增幅為 24.2%。營業利潤增加 3.86 億美元，成長 43.9%。

All very impressive, especially when the comparator year 2024 showed remarkable growth over 2023. Turning to market demand. We saw accelerated interest across all models in the third quarter led by the North American market. This led to very strong order intake and loaded the pipeline for a good fourth quarter. This remains by all accounts, a very resilient and robust market for new business aircraft.

一切都令人印象深刻，尤其是當比較年份 2024 年較 2023 年顯示出顯著增長時。轉向市場需求。我們看到，在第三季度，以北美市場為首的所有車型的興趣都大幅增加。這帶來了非常強勁的訂單量，並為第四季度的良好表現奠定了基礎。總體而言，這仍然是新商務飛機的一個極具彈性和強勁的市場。

In summary, the Aerospace team had a very good quarter and look forward to a strong finish to the year. So let's move on to the defense businesses.

總而言之，航空航太團隊本季表現非常好，並期待今年能圓滿成功。那麼讓我們繼續討論國防業務。

As a collective, we once again saw strong growth in Marine Systems and good operating performance across the portfolio. Let me walk you through each segment in turn. First, Combat Systems. Combat Systems had revenue of $2.3 billion for the quarter, a modest 1.8% increase. Earnings of $335 million, are up 3.1%, operating margins at 14.9%, are up 20 basis points over Q3 last year, demonstrating nice operating leverage.

作為一個整體，我們再次看到了海洋系統的強勁成長和整個投資組合的良好營運表現。讓我依序帶您了解每個部分。首先，戰鬥系統。作戰系統本季營收為 23 億美元，小幅成長 1.8%。收益為 3.35 億美元，成長 3.1%，營業利潤率為 14.9%，比去年第三季成長 20 個基點，顯示出良好的營業槓桿。

On a sequential basis, while revenue decreased 1.4%, earnings rose 3.4% on a 70 basis points improvement in operating margin. Year-to-date, revenue of $6.7 billion is up 1.7% and earnings of $950 million are up 3.3%. Overall, demand is strong across combat, particularly in our ordinance and international combat vehicles business. Artillery orders and the missile subcomponent work we do for the Prime has increased in our ordinance business. Internationally, demand for all classes of combat vehicles across the European theater has been increasing and orders are following, particularly in those countries in which we have indigenous production.

與上一季相比，儘管收入下降了 1.4%，但盈利卻增長了 3.4%，營業利潤率提高了 70 個基點。今年迄今，該公司營收為 67 億美元，成長 1.7%，獲利為 9.5 億美元，成長 3.3%。總體而言，整個戰鬥領域的需求都很強勁，特別是在我們的軍械和國際作戰車輛業務中。我們為總理所做的砲兵訂單和飛彈子部件工作在我們的軍械業務中有所增加。在國際上，歐洲戰區對所有類型戰車的需求一直在增加，訂單也隨之而來，特別是在我們擁有本土生產能力的國家。

We saw robust order intake with over $4.4 billion awarded in Q3, resulting in a book-to-bill of 2:1 for the quarter. Orders came from across the portfolio and internationally, primarily Europe. Our combat system backlog at roughly $18.7 billion, reflects the strong demand.

我們看到第三季訂單量強勁，訂單金額超過 44 億美元，導致本季的訂單出貨比為 2:1。訂單來自整個投資組合和國際，主要是歐洲。我們的作戰系統積壓訂單約為 187 億美元，反映了強勁的需求。

All in all, a strong performance quarter for Combat that sets them up nicely for improved growth rates. Turning to Marine Systems. Yet again, our shipbuilding group is demonstrating strong revenue growth. Marine Systems revenue of $4.1 billion is up $497 million, 13.8% against the year ago quarter. Columbia Class Construction and Virginia Class Construction led the way with increased throughput.

總而言之，Combat 本季表現強勁，為提高成長率奠定了良好的基礎。轉向海洋系統。我們的造船集團再次展現強勁的營收成長。海洋系統部門的營收為 41 億美元，比去年同期成長 4.97 億美元，增幅為 13.8%。哥倫比亞級建造船和維吉尼亞級建造船在吞吐量增加方面處於領先地位。

Operating earnings of $291 million, are up 12.8% over the year ago quarter, with a 10 basis points decrease in operating margin. However, we are seeing metrics showing improved performance across the business which should lead to improved operating margins little by little. Sequentially, results are about the same as the prior quarter. Year-to-date, Marine revenue of $11.9 billion, is up 14.7% and earnings of $832 million or up 13.2%. So across the business, we have seen rapid growth of revenue and earnings but margin performance around 7%.

營業利潤為 2.91 億美元，比去年同期成長 12.8%，營業利益率下降 10 個基點。然而，我們看到的指標顯示整個業務的績效正在提高，這將逐漸提高營業利潤率。從環比來看，業績與上一季大致相同。今年迄今，海事業務收入為 119 億美元，成長 14.7%，收益為 8.32 億美元，成長 13.2%。因此，在整個業務範圍內，我們看到收入和收益的快速成長，但利潤率表現在 7% 左右。

As I've said before, improvement here represents our most meaningful opportunity. And lastly, Technologies. It was another good quarter with revenue of $3.3 billion, which is down 1.6% over the year ago quarter. Operating earnings in the quarter of $327 million are essentially the same on a 10 basis point improvement in operating margin.

正如我之前所說，這裡的改進代表著我們最有意義的機會。最後是技術。這又是一個表現良好的季度，營收為 33 億美元，比去年同期下降 1.6%。本季營業利潤為 3.27 億美元，與上一季基本持平，營業利潤率提高了 10 個基點。

The year-to-date comparisons are better. Revenue at $10.2 billion, is up 3.5% and earnings of $987 million are up almost 5% on a 10 basis point improvement in operating margin. Order activity was particularly strong in the quarter with a book-to-bill of 1.8:1. That resulted in backlog at the end of the quarter of $16.9 billion, up $2.7 billion sequentially. Through the first nine months, the group achieved a book-to-bill ratio of 1.3:1.

今年迄今的比較結果較好。營收為 102 億美元，成長 3.5%，收益為 9.87 億美元，成長近 5%，營業利潤率提高了 10 個基點。本季訂單活動特別強勁，訂單出貨比高達1.8:1。這使得季末的積壓訂單金額達到169億美元，季增27億美元。今年前九個月，該集團的訂單出貨比達到 1.3:1。

This positions the group ball for better revenue growth than they have had in the last two years. Prospects remain strong with a large qualified funnel of more than $113 billion in opportunities that they are pursuing across the group. It is interesting to observe that our slower growing segments in more recent periods have enjoyed very robust book-to-bill this quarter and year-to-date.

這使得該團體的收入成長比過去兩年更好。前景依然強勁，整個集團正在尋求超過 1,130 億美元的優質商機。有趣的是，我們近期成長較慢的部門本季和年初至今的訂單出貨比非常強勁。

That concludes my remarks about the defense businesses. Before I hand the call over to Kim, I'd like to have Danny share his observations from an operating perspective and provide additional color.

我對國防業務的評論就到此結束。在我將電話交給 Kim 之前，我想讓 Danny 從營運角度分享他的觀察結果並提供更多資訊。

Thank you, Phebe. Let me start with Aerospace. We have seen strong performance across the board, including orders, manufacturing and deliveries as well as customer service. From an order standpoint, Phebe mentioned a robust quarter across the portfolio. To give you some additional perspective, in the first nine months of 2025, unit orders are up 56% versus this time a year ago.

謝謝你，菲比。讓我先從航空航天開始。我們看到了各方面的強勁表現，包括訂單、製造和交付以及客戶服務。從訂單角度來看，Phebe 提到整個投資組合本季表現強勁。為了給您一些額外的視角，2025 年前九個月，單位訂單比去年同期增加了 56%。

From a productivity standpoint, we are seeing good learning across all our lines with manufacturing hours on the G700 and G800 coming down quarter over quarter throughout this year.

從生產力的角度來看，我們看到所有生產線都取得了良好的學習成果，今年 G700 和 G800 的生產時間逐季度減少。

We have seen measurable improvement in the supply chain with on-time deliveries to pre-COVID level. And in terms of airplane deliveries, the progress has been pronounced with our delivery cadence steadily increasing. Through the first nine months of this year, we've delivered 113 airplanes as compared to 89 airplanes for the same period in 2024. So overall, plenty to be pleased about from an operational standpoint. Turning to our Defense businesses.

我們看到供應鏈有了顯著改善，準時交貨率已恢復到疫情前的水準。在飛機交付方面，我們的交付節奏穩步提高，並取得了顯著進展。今年前九個月，我們交付了 113 架飛機，而 2024 年同期交付了 89 架飛機。因此，總體而言，從營運角度來看，有很多值得高興的事情。轉向我們的國防業務。

I'll highlight a few key items of interest. In our Marine group, at Bath Iron Works, we are seeing positive momentum in terms of ship over ship learning reflected in both the number of hours to produce as well as the schedule to produce them. At Electric Boat, our productivity and schedule metrics are slowly but steadily improving as we see the investments in tooling and fixtures, automation, robotics and most importantly, our shipbuilders all taking hold.

我將重點介紹幾個值得關注的關鍵事項。在巴斯鋼鐵廠的船舶集團，我們看到船舶學習的正面勢頭，這體現在生產小時數和生產進度。在 Electric Boat，隨著我們在工具和固定裝置、自動化、機器人以及最重要的造船廠方面的投資不斷增加，我們的生產力和進度指標正在緩慢但穩定地改善。

These improvements have stabilized margins and put us in a position to consistently grow them over time. With respect to the supply chain, we have seen improvements in some areas, but others are still struggling to meet the significant increase in demand. In the combat Group, we have seen considerable uptick in demand in our European operations from bridges to combat platforms, and our long-term presence and manufacturing footprint in several European countries positions us well to serve this increased demand.

這些改進穩定了利潤率，並使我們能夠隨著時間的推移持續成長利潤率。就供應鏈而言，我們看到一些領域有所改善，但其他領域仍在努力滿足大幅成長的需求。在作戰集團，我們看到歐洲業務中從橋樑到作戰平台的需求大幅上升，而我們在歐洲多個國家的長期存在和製造足跡使我們能夠很好地滿足這一不斷增長的需求。

In our Technologies group, we are seeing the benefits of the strategic investments that our Mission Systems business has made in differentiated defense electronics to serve priorities and strategic deterrents, subsea warfare and next-generation command and control. As we transition from legacy programs, which are nearly completed to programs with highly differentiated content, we expect to see continued growth with robust margins for this year and into the future. Across all our businesses, our continued focus on operational performance is bearing fruit as evidenced by our third quarter results, and we expect continued margin strength and strong cash generation in the future.

在我們的技術集團，我們看到了任務系統業務在差異化國防電子產品方面進行的戰略投資所帶來的好處，這些投資服務於優先事項和戰略威懾、海底戰爭和下一代指揮與控制。隨著我們從接近完成的傳統項目過渡到具有高度差異化內容的項目，我們預計今年及未來將繼續實現成長並維持強勁的利潤率。在我們所有的業務中，我們對營運績效的持續關注正在取得成果，正如我們第三季的業績所證明的那樣，我們預計未來利潤率將繼續保持強勁，現金產生能力也將增強。

Let me now turn the call over to Kim to discuss relevant financial data.

現在，我將把電話轉給金，討論相關的財務數據。

Thank you, Danny, and good morning. The third quarter was another strong quarter from an orders perspective. The overall book-to-bill ratio for the company was 1.5:1. All four segments experienced a book-to-bill of at least 1.2 times. Our Defense segment's book-to-bill was a robust 1.6 times their revenue.

謝謝你，丹尼，早安。從訂單角度來看，第三季又是一個強勁的季度。該公司整體訂單出貨比為1.5:1。四個部門的訂單出貨比均至少1.2倍。我們國防部門的訂單出貨比是其收入的 1.6 倍。

. Aerospace continued its momentum with a book bill of 1.3 times for the second quarter in a row, even as revenue increased in both quarters. Year-to-date, the book-to-bill for the company was a solid 1.5:1. This robust order activity led to a new record level of backlog at $109.9 billion at the end of the quarter, up 19% from a year ago and 6% from last quarter. Looking at the segments.

。航空航太業務持續保持強勁勢頭，連續第二個季度實現訂單金額成長 1.3 倍，儘管兩季的營收都有所增加。年初至今，該公司的訂單出貨比穩固地維持在1.5:1。強勁的訂單活動使得本季末的積壓訂單金額創下新高，達到1,099億美元，較去年同期成長19%，較上一季成長6%。查看片段。

Marine and Technology each ended the quarter with a record level of backlog. Our total estimated contract value, which includes options and IDIQ contracts, also ended the quarter at a new record level of $167.7 billion with each of the Defense segments reaching new highs. Moving to our cash performance.

本季結束時，船舶和技術部門的積壓訂單量均創下了歷史新高。我們的合約總價值（包括選擇權和 IDIQ 合約）也在本季結束時創下了 1,677 億美元的新高，每個國防部門都創下了新高。轉向我們的現金表現。

It's an even better story than orders. Last quarter, we discussed our efforts to drive cash to the left given our back-end loaded cash forecast for 2025. Well, we realized the fruits of those efforts in the quarter. Our business units really outperformed our cash flow generation estimates for the quarter, driven by solid cash collections. Let's get to the specifics.

這是一個比命令更精彩的故事。上個季度，我們討論了根據 2025 年後端現金預測，推動現金向左流動的努力。好吧，我們在本季實現了這些努力的成果。在穩健現金回款的推動下，我們業務部門本季的現金流量產生確實超出了預期。讓我們來了解一下具體情況。

Overall, we generated $2.1 billion of operating cash flow. All segments contributed to the better-than-expected results with particularly strong cash generation in Combat Systems and technologies. Including capital expenditures, our free cash flow was $1.9 billion for the quarter or 179% of net income.

整體而言，我們產生了 21 億美元的營運現金流。所有部門都為好於預期的業績做出了貢獻，其中作戰系統和技術部門的現金創造尤其強勁。包括資本支出在內，本季我們的自由現金流為 19 億美元，佔淨收入的 179%。

Coming off strong cash collections in the third quarter, we now expect about half as much free cash flow as we generated in the third quarter in the fourth quarter. Our estimate includes an increase in capital expenditures as we continue to invest in our businesses, especially in electric boat and somewhat larger tax payments in the final quarter of the year.

由於第三季現金回籠強勁，我們預期第四季的自由現金流約為第三季的一半。我們的估計包括資本支出的增加，因為我們繼續投資於我們的業務，特別是電動船，以及在今年最後一個季度支付的稅款有所增加。

As a result, we anticipate a free cash flow conversion percentage in the low 90s for the year. This guidance includes some goodness from the reversal of the R&D capitalization, but the rest of that benefit will be lived over the next few years. Having said that, the uncertain duration and future potential impacts of the government shutdown creates a lack of clear visibility into our cash forecast for the remainder of the year.

因此，我們預計今年的自由現金流轉換率將在 90% 左右。該指導包括研發資本化逆轉帶來的一些好處，但其餘好處將在未來幾年內實現。話雖如此，政府關門持續時間的不確定性及其未來的潛在影響導致我們對今年剩餘時間的現金預測缺乏清晰的了解。

We are taking prudent actions to conserve cash and liquidity. If a resolution can be reached in the near term, we would expect to be able to achieve the forecast that I just discussed. However, in the event of a protracted shutdown, it is unclear how and when our cash flow will be impacted despite our careful efforts to diligently manage cash.

我們正在採取審慎的行動來保存現金和流動性。如果能在短期內達成解決方案，我們預計能夠實現我剛才討論的預測。然而，如果發生長期停工，儘管我們努力認真管理現金，但我們的現金流將如何以及何時受到影響尚不清楚。

Looking at capital deployment. Capital expenditures were $212 million in the quarter or 1.6% of sales and $552 million year-to-date. We are targeting over 2% of sales for the full year CapEx and given the expected investments in the fourth quarter that I mentioned a moment ago. We paid $403 million in dividends and repaid $696 million of commercial paper during the quarter. Year-to-date, we have returned $1.8 billion to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases.

看看資本配置。本季資本支出為 2.12 億美元，佔銷售額的 1.6%，年初至今的資本支出為 5.52 億美元。我們的目標是全年資本支出佔銷售額的 2% 以上，並考慮到我剛才提到的第四季的預期投資。我們在本季支付了 4.03 億美元的股息並償還了 6.96 億美元的商業票據。今年迄今為止，我們已透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 18 億美元。

We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $2.5 billion. That brings us to a net debt position of $5.5 billion down $1.7 billion from last quarter. After quarter end, we did reenter the commercial paper market to support our liquidity during the government shutdown in the event of slow or nonpayment issues. Interest expense in the quarter was $74 million compared with $82 million last year.

本季末我們的現金餘額為 25 億美元。這使得我們的淨債務狀況達到 55 億美元，比上一季減少了 17 億美元。季度末之後，我們確實重新進入了商業票據市場，以便在政府關門期間出現付款緩慢或不付款問題時支持我們的流動性。本季利息支出為 7,400 萬美元，而去年同期為 8,200 萬美元。

That brings interest expense for the first nine months of the year to $251 million, up slightly from $248 million last year. Finally, the tax rate in the quarter was 16.7%, bringing the rate for the first nine months to 17.2%. This rate is approaching our outlook for the full year, which remains around 17.5%.

這使得今年前九個月的利息支出達到 2.51 億美元，略高於去年的 2.48 億美元。最後，本季的稅率為 16.7%，前九個月的稅率達到 17.2%。這一成長率接近我們對全年的預期，即保持在 17.5% 左右。

Now let me turn it back over to Phebe.

現在讓我把它交還給 Phebe。

Thanks, Kim. So in light of the things we've just discussed, let me give you some thoughts for the remainder of the year. On a company-wide basis, we see annual revenue of around $52 billion and margins of around 10.3%. The puts and takes around the businesses are sufficiently modest, but I will not get into them here. Overall, we are increasing our EPS forecast between $15.30 to $15.35.

謝謝，金。因此，根據我們剛剛討論的內容，讓我對今年剩餘的時間提出一些想法。從整個公司來看，年收入約 520 億美元，利潤率約為 10.3%。這些業務的利弊相當溫和，但我在這裡不會深入討論。總體而言，我們將每股盈餘預測上調至 15.30 美元至 15.35 美元。

Some of you may regard this as a cautious forecast given the performance year-to-date. Let me remind you that we're in the midst of a government shutdown with no end in sight. The longer it lasts, the more it will impact us, particularly the shorter-cycle businesses. So forecast in this environment are difficult at best and less reliable than one would hope.

鑑於今年迄今的表現，有些人可能認為這是一個謹慎的預測。讓我提醒大家，我們正處於政府關門時期，看不到盡頭。持續時間越長，對我們的影響就越大，特別是對那些週期較短的企業。因此，在這種環境下進行預測非常困難，而且可靠性不如人們希望的那樣。

This concludes our remarks, and we'll be happy to take your questions.

我們的演講到此結束，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Event Instructions)

（活動須知）

(Operator Instructions) Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示） Myles Walton，Wolfe Research。

Great, thanks, Phebe, on the orders front within Aerospace, second quarter that they've been quite strong. And I'm curious how much of this do you think is customers seeing that delivery pace is sort of coming together, realizing that they better get in line lead times where they are? And maybe how much of it is maybe just more because the certification happens, the orders come in.

太好了，謝謝，Phebe，就航空部門的訂單而言，第二季表現相當強勁。我很好奇，您認為這在多大程度上是因為客戶看到交貨速度正在加快，意識到他們最好在交貨時間內交貨？也許其中的金額可能只是更多，因為認證已經完成，訂單已經到來。

I'd say there were a whole host of factors that drove the orders. I think primarily, it's the strength of the economy. It's been -- our order book has been pretty resilient. And in fact, the pipeline remains resilient and pretty robust. So I'd say it's that. It's a combination of that plus the fact that we've got a number of new models, delivery cadence is improving. So I think it's all the factors that you mentioned. And I will note that it is across the portfolio, led primarily by the 800.

我想說有很多因素推動了這些訂單。我認為首先是經濟實力。我們的訂單一直都非常有彈性。事實上，該管道仍然具有彈性且相當堅固。所以我想說就是這樣。正是由於這些因素，再加上我們推出了多款新車型，交付節奏正在加快。所以我認為這些都是你提到的因素。我要指出的是，它遍布整個投資組合，主要由 800 主導。

Geographically, is there an area of particular strength?

從地理位置上看，是否有一個特別強大的區域？

North America. Okay. All right, thank you.

北美。好的。好的，謝謝。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特‧斯托拉德 (Robert Stallard)，垂直研究。

Thanks very much. Good morning. Phebe, there's been some reports that the customer -- the US customer is talking to defense companies about potentially investing more of their own money, the CapEx and R&D in exchange for the work they do. and also potentially putting restrictions on their ability to return cash to shareholders. And I wonder if you had any views or experience of this so far?

非常感謝。早安.菲比，有報道稱，客戶——美國客戶正在與國防公司談判，可能投資更多自有資金、資本支出和研發資金來換取他們所做的工作，並可能限制他們向股東返還現金的能力。我想知道您到目前為止對此有何看法或經驗？

I think we've all read the same reports. I would note that we have invested heavily over the last sevenyears in our business because we anticipated the growth in all of our shipyards in our Combat Systems business and in technology. So we have a very, very clear record of heavy investing in our portfolio because we did see this growth coming. And some of it was predictable and some of it, I think, is just the natural cycle of defense spending driven by the threat, which is increasingly obvious. I think we all read the same reports.

我想我們都讀過同樣的報道。我想指出的是，過去七年來，我們在業務上投入了大量資金，因為我們預計所有造船廠的作戰系統業務和技術都會成長。因此，我們在投資組合中有著非常清晰的大量投資記錄，因為我們確實預見了這種成長。其中一些是可以預見的，而我認為，還有一些只是威脅驅動的國防開支的自然循環，這一點越來越明顯。我想我們都讀過同樣的報告。

We haven't seen anything like that yet, but we're pretty comfortable that we have invested, and we will continue to invest where we see it prudent to support the growth.

我們還沒有看到類似的事情，但我們對已經進行的投資感到非常滿意，我們將繼續在我們認為支持成長的謹慎領域進行投資。

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up for Kim on the very strong free cash flow in the quarter. Were there any unusual defense advances in there, particularly from Europe, which helped the number? .

好的。然後，我簡單跟進 Kim 本季非常強勁的自由現金流。那裡是否有任何不尋常的國防進步，特別是來自歐洲的進步，這對數字有幫助嗎？。

No, there were not. Not in this quarter.

不，沒有。本季沒有。

Ken Herbert, RBC.

肯·赫伯特，RBC。

Yeah, hi, good morning, Phebe, I wanted to follow up on your comments and Kim's comments. On the shutdown, you said protracted, how should we think about timing from what would be a protracted shutdown from your view? And are you seeing anything yet specifically you can point to that's either impacting cash collection or contract timing or anything else as a result of the shutdown.

是的，嗨，早上好，Phebe，我想跟進你的評論和 Kim 的評論。關於停擺，您說是長期停擺，從您的角度來看，我們應該如何考慮長期停擺的時機？您是否看到任何具體影響，可以指出哪些影響了現金收集或合約時間或因停工造成的其他任何事情？

On cash collection, not yet on contracts, in some instances, the contracting people have been sent home. So that will push contracting into whatever weak quarter months that the government resumes. I think from our point of view, we've looked at this as a rolling basis since it is unknowable. When the shutdown ends, then we are looking on a weekly basis and rolling forward to anticipate what each one of our contracts look like to the extent that we can. So we're -- it does introduce uncertainty in the quarter.

只收現金，不簽約，有些合約工人已經被遣送回家了。因此，這將推動政府恢復的任何疲軟季度的合約簽訂。我認為從我們的角度來看，我們將其視為滾動基礎，因為它是不可知的。當停工結束後，我們會每週進行審查，並盡可能預測每份合約的情況。因此，這確實給本季帶來了不確定性。

And if it goes into next year, that increases the likelihood that it will have additional impact on particular lines of business that begin to run out of funding. So there's an awful lot of, I think, uncertainty in that uncertain environment, I think we're taking a prudent approach.

如果這項措施持續到明年，那麼它對那些開始資金耗盡的特定業務線產生額外影響的可能性就會增加。所以我認為，在這種不確定的環境中存在著許多不確定性，我們正在採取謹慎的態度。

Okay. And when you talk about protracted, I'm guessing, based on your comments, we should think about something resolved this quarter, probably not a material impact, but if it fills into '26, that would be obviously a different story.

好的。當您談到長期問題時，我猜，根據您的評論，我們應該考慮本季解決的問題，可能不會產生實質影響，但如果它持續到 26 年，那顯然就是另一回事了。

I think we'd have to assess where we are contract by contract. But clearly, the longer this goes on, the greater the risk and particularly in the supply chain.

我認為我們必須根據合約的具體情況進行評估。但顯然，這種情況持續的時間越長，風險就越大，尤其是在供應鏈中。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

美國銀行的羅恩愛潑斯坦。

Yeah, hey, good morning, everybody. Maybe the first one for you on Gulfstream. So unlike a lot of other companies in the market, you guys have a suite of new products out there and really gaining the benefit from that. How are you thinking about product development now? Because my understanding is Gulfstream has always had sort of a steady investment in product development going to be year over year and just doesn't ramp up, ramp time is very steady. Is that still the case? And how are you thinking about it going forward? I know we got all this behind us and sort of like the last question you probably want. But how are you thinking about it?

是的，嘿，大家早安。這可能是您搭乘灣流飛機時遇到的第一架飛機。因此，與市場上的許多其他公司不同，你們推出了一系列新產品，並真正從中獲益。您現在對產品開發有什麼想法？因為我的理解是，灣流公司一直對產品開發進行穩定的投資，而且投資金額不會逐年增加，成長時間非常穩定。現在還是這樣嗎？您對於未來有何打算？我知道我們已經解決了所有問題，這可能是您想知道的最後一個問題。但您是怎麼考慮的呢？

Well, look, as you well know, we have -- this has been a long-term strategy of ours to replace the entirety of our fleet with own new product designed to meet every one of our customers' missions, and we've done that. I think the most recent announcement of the 300 shows that. As we go forward, we will be upgrading our products in due course, and that's probably all that we're going to say at this point. These are all brand-new airplanes, and they've got a lot of running room, and they've met with very, very strong positive customer reaction.

嗯，正如你所知，我們的一項長期策略是用我們自己的新產品取代我們的整個機隊，以滿足我們每個客戶的任務，我們已經做到了這一點。我認為最近宣布的 300 人名單證明了這一點。隨著我們不斷前進，我們將適時升級我們的產品，這可能是我們現在要說的全部。這些都是全新的飛機，擁有很大的運行空間，並且得到了非常非常積極的客戶回饋。

Got it. Got it. And then one for Danny, if you will, on shipbuilding -- shipbuilding has been sort of a bugaboo for the industry. When you think about making the shipbuilding business more efficient, how are you thinking about it? I mean labor, I think it's been one of the big problems for the entire industry. But I mean, from your point of view, I mean what are the levers you're pulling today to try to really get the efficiency out of the shipyards up?

知道了。知道了。然後，如果您願意的話，我想問一下丹尼關於造船的問題——造船一直是該行業的難題。當您考慮提高造船業的效率時，您是如何考慮的？我的意思是勞動力，我認為這是整個行業面臨的最大問題之一。但我的意思是，從您的角度來看，您今天採取了哪些措施來真正提高造船廠的效率？

Yes. So let me start with the supply chain. I think in my comments, I mentioned that we've seen some improvement in the supply chain, and there's other areas where it's still lagging. But those improvements are significant, just to give you a sense, and that will have the biggest impact on our ability to drive productivity and schedule and start to grow margins. But to give you a sense of how the supply chain has evolved and a lot of it from the investments the government has made in the supply chain in terms of productivity, employee retention and just increasing capacity. But we've seen a 40% increase in the last two years in the sequence critical material. That's really -- that helps with productivity.

是的。那麼就讓我從供應鏈開始吧。我想在我的評論中，我提到我們已經看到供應鏈有所改善，但在其他領域仍然落後。但這些改進意義重大，只是為了讓您了解，這將對我們提高生產力和進度以及開始增加利潤的能力產生最大的影響。但讓您了解供應鏈是如何演變的，其中很大一部分來自政府在生產力、員工留任和提高產能方面對供應鏈所做的投資。但我們發現過去兩年序列關鍵材料的數量增加了 40%。這確實有助於提高生產力。

And if you look at it across all of the supply we get, it's been a 75% increase. We'll receive almost 5 million parts. So I'd say the number one thing that will impact our efficiency in our shipyards is the supply chain stabilizing. And as our shipbuilders come down the learning curve from an efficiency standpoint, and we're starting to see that. We're starting to see good ship over ship learning.

如果你看我們獲得的所有供應量，你會發現它增加了 75%。我們將收到近500萬個零件。所以我想說，影響我們造船廠效率的首要因素是供應鏈的穩定。隨著我們的造船工人從效率的角度學習曲線，我們開始看到這一點。我們開始看到良好的船舶間學習。

And we make investments in all the same things that is happening in the supply base with respect to robotics and automation and employee development and training. That's where we really see the biggest bang for our buck.

我們對供應基地在機器人、自動化以及員工發展和培訓方面發生的所有事情都進行了投資。這才是我們真正看到資金投入最大效益的地方。

Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

克莉絲汀‧利瓦格，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning, everyone, and congratulations on the record backlog in defense and growth in aerospace. I guess focusing on technologies, Look, we've seen continued strength in the backlog, but we're also seeing a notable step-up in the unfunded backlog I was wondering if you could provide more color on what's driving this? Is this related to those or the government shutdown? And when would we expect this to either convert to funded or eventually convert to the higher revenue for the segment?

嘿，大家早安，祝賀國防訂單量創歷史新高，航空航天業也實現了成長。我想專注於技術，看，我們看到積壓訂單持續強勁，但我們也看到未獲資金支持的積壓訂單顯著增加，我想知道您是否可以提供更多關於推動這一趨勢的原因的信息？這與這些或政府關門有關嗎？我們什麼時候可以預期這會轉化為資金或最終轉化為該部門的更高收入？

I don't think that there's any root cause other than just timing that drives drives that increase. I'm not aware of anything in particular. We are continuing to work with our customers. We always work with them in the normal course, and that's continuing now on ways in which that we can all improve our efficiency. But I wouldn't point to any particular element in that.

我認為，除了推動驅動力增加的時機之外，沒有其他根本原因。我不知道任何特別的事情。我們將繼續與客戶合作。我們始終按照正常程序與他們合作，現在我們仍在繼續尋找提高效率的方法。但我不會指出其中的任何特定因素。

And recall, we book and Nicole can walk you through this offline, but we backlog a little differently than a lot of them, and we're pretty conservative about it. But I would say that driving that backlog is the demand that we're seeing pretty much across the portfolio. GDIT, in particular, had a very, very strong book-to-bill will like in excess of 2:1 in the quarter, and they've continued to have very strong bookings as a lot of their investments have begun to pay off in cyber, zero trust environment. AI. So we're in pretty good stead in that market.

回想一下，我們預訂了，妮可可以離線指導您完成此過程，但我們的積壓情況與許多公司略有不同，而且我們對此非常保守。但我想說，推動積壓訂單的是我們在整個投資組合中看到的需求。特別是 GDIT，其本季的訂單出貨比非常強勁，超過 2:1，而且由於他們在網路、零信任環境中的許多投資開始獲得回報，他們的訂單量持續保持強勁。人工智慧.因此，我們在該市場處於相當有利的地位。

And if I could follow on Ron's question about product development in aerospace. We've seen in the past few years kind of some interest in supersonic. I was wondering, would that be on the table for a next program for Gulfstream?

我是否可以繼續回答羅恩關於航空航太產品開發的問題？過去幾年，我們看到人們對超音速產生了一些興趣。我想知道，這是否會成為灣流的下一個項目的一部分？

Well, first of all, there is zero way I'm going to venture into what we're going to do next. But I will say something about supersonically. If you have to see a business case that even remotely works. So -- Yes.

嗯，首先，我絕對不會冒險去考慮我們下一步要做什麼。但我要說一些關於超音速的事情。如果您必須看到一個甚至遠端有效的商業案例。所以——是的。

Peter Arment, Baird.

彼得·阿門特，貝爾德。

Phebe, maybe just to stay on Gulfstream. Just given the resilience of this -- the bookings environment and the backlog and how well you guys are doing, does that provide pressure on kind of where production is? Or do you need to take rates up? Or do you feel like you've got a the right cadence with the current rates today?

菲比，也許只是繼續留在灣流航空。考慮到這種情況的彈性——預訂環境和積壓情況以及你們的表現如何，這是否會對生產造成壓力？或者你需要調高利率嗎？或者您覺得您已經掌握了當今當前利率的正確節奏？

Well, our rates are driven by the backlog and demand. So far, we're comfortable in our rates will increase in a regular order. But if you -- if we continue to see increasing demand and increasing backlog, we'll have to increase our rates, that's pretty much, I think, our standard operating cadence, nothing's changed in that regard and how we -- with respect to how we react to increases in demand. So we'll continue to increase, I think, year over year for the next couple of years.

嗯，我們的費率是由積壓和需求決定的。到目前為止，我們對我們的費率將按常規順序增加感到滿意。但是，如果我們繼續看到需求增加和積壓增加，我們就必須提高費率，我認為這基本上是我們的標準操作節奏，在這方面沒有任何改變，以及我們如何應對需求增加。因此我認為，未來幾年我們的產量將持續逐年成長。

That's sort of our plan.

這就是我們的計劃。

Got it. That's helpful. And just as a follow-up, could you give us the latest on where things stand on construction for the first Columbia class just given all the reports out there and maybe how things are either showing some improvement in getting ready for additional volumes that are coming.

知道了。這很有幫助。作為後續問題，根據目前所有的報告，您能否向我們介紹一下哥倫比亞大學第一期課程建設的最新進展，以及在為即將到來的額外課程做準備方面情況是否有所改善。

So we have the jig fixture facilities to continue to produce. We'll continue to invest and particularly in productivity improvements. and additional footprint as needed. The first Columbia is about 50% complete by the end of this year. We'll have all the major modules at Graton ready for assembly and test, and then systematically work through each one of those testing items.

因此，我們有夾具設備來繼續生產。我們將繼續投資，特別是在提高生產力方面，並根據需要擴大足跡。到今年年底，第一艘哥倫比亞號已完成約 50%。我們將準備好 Graton 的所有主要模組以供組裝和測試，然後有系統地完成每個測試項目。

It's pretty rigorous as you could imagine, first-of-class testing program, we'll work in coordination hand in glove at the Navy, but we're moving -- we're working very hard to move that ship to the last along with our customer and along with the supply chain. So we've -- and we've seen some improvements again from the supply chain, as Danny I think, clearly articulated. So this next year will be pivotal.

你可以想像，這是非常嚴格的，一流的測試計劃，我們將與海軍密切協調，但我們正在努力——我們正在與我們的客戶和供應鏈一起將該船推進到最後階段。因此，我們——我們再次看到供應鏈的一些改善，正如丹尼明確表達的那樣。因此明年將是關鍵的一年。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

塞思‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask one about Combat. And so I was kind of thinking about the future there and the fact that there are some headwinds in vehicles, including Stryker and some tailwinds, maybe from munitions and in Europe. And kind of wondering if that business was going to grow. But based on the comments you made earlier and kind of the backlog growth we saw in the quarter, it sounds like there's potential for combat growth to accelerate out of this year. Is that a fair way to think about it?

大家早安。我想問一個關於戰鬥的問題。因此，我在思考那裡的未來，事實上，在車輛方面存在一些阻力，包括來自 Stryker 的阻力，但也有一些順風，可能來自彈藥和歐洲。並且有點想知道這項業務是否會成長。但根據您先前的評論以及我們在本季看到的積壓成長情況，聽起來今年戰鬥成長有可能加速。這樣思考是否公平？

That's how we're looking at it. I think you quite accurately pointed to the headwinds and the tailwinds. International vehicle demand is increasing and at a higher rate and munitions demand, both internationally and domestically is increasing as our we are a supplier to the primes on missile parts, and that also is increasing. But there is some headwind with respect to US combat vehicles, that is until we accelerate the delivery of the new tank.

我們就是這樣看待它的。我認為您非常準確地指出了逆風和順風。國際車輛需求正在以更高的速度增長，而彈藥需求，無論是在國際上還是在國內，都在增長，因為我們是導彈零件底火的供應商，而且這種需求也在增長。但就美國作戰車輛而言，仍存在一些阻力，直到我們加快交付新坦克。

So it's a mix, but we see some nice growth driven by our international business. And let me tell you, I want to give you a little bit of perspective on that international business. So we have indigenous businesses that have been the backbone of their country's supply chain for the last industrial base for the last 25 years.

所以這是一個混合體，但我們看到我們的國際業務推動了一些良好的成長。讓我告訴你，我想給你一些有關國際業務的看法。因此，我們的本土企業在過去 25 年裡一直是其國家最後一個工業基礎供應鏈的支柱。

And in these businesses, they are have indigenous engineering design and manufacturing, and they are run by host country national. So these are -- when we produce vehicles coming out of Europe to Europe, they are European engineered European design and European manufactured. And we think that's a very, very good and it's been a successful business model for us as demonstrated by we've got the largest installed fleet in Europe. So we're pretty comfortable with the competitive positioning of that business.

在這些業務中，他們擁有本土工程設計和製造能力，並由東道國國民經營。因此，當我們生產的車輛從歐洲運往歐洲時，它們都是歐洲工程、歐洲設計和歐洲製造的。我們認為這是一個非常非常好的、對我們來說非常成功的商業模式，正如我們擁有歐洲最大的安裝車隊所證明的那樣。因此，我們對該業務的競爭定位非常滿意。

Great. Great. And maybe as a follow-up, you talk a little bit about where we stand in the replacement cycle for G650. To what degree has that been driving recent orders for 800, and I assume it's more 800 than $700 million. And to what kind of pipeline is there for that as we kind of look ahead?

偉大的。偉大的。作為後續問題，您可以稍微談談我們在 G650 更換週期中的位置。這在多大程度上推動了最近的 800 份訂單？我認為應該超過 800 份，而不是 7 億美元。那麼，展望未來，有哪些類型的管道可以實現這一目標？

So as you know, we phased out the 650, and you're quite right, we're placed by the 800. The 800 has had an awful lot of customer interest. It led the orders demand in the quarter. And we have a pretty robust pipeline. So we -- that transition from the 650 to the 800 let very, very smoothly.

所以如你所知，我們逐步淘汰了 650，你說得對，我們被安排在 800 旁邊。800 引起了大量顧客的興趣。它引領了本季的訂單需求。我們擁有相當強大的管道。因此，我們從 650 到 800 的過渡非常非常順利。

The introduction of the 800 and has gone well and deliveries are increasing. I mean this week, we just delivered our sixth -- by the way, we also -- this week delivered our 72nd G700. So I think that's an indication of more regular cadence in the delivery profile as the supply chain has stabilized.

800 的推出進展順利，交付量正在增加。我的意思是，本週我們剛剛交付了第六架——順便說一下，我們也交付了第 72 架 G700。因此，我認為這表明隨著供應鏈的穩定，交付節奏將更加規律。

[Sheila Kahyaoglu, -- Nepris]

[Sheila Kahyaoglu，－－Nepris]

Good morning, guys, and thank you so much. Maybe if I could ask a follow-up on that topic, maybe just how do we think about -- you have so many development programs, and you've done a great job with the shift from the 650 to 800. And yet, the margins are going to be stable even with the 650 going away. So how are you thinking about the G 800 learning curve, the 700 as well? If you could provide us an update on those blocks and how we should be thinking about that?

大家早安，非常感謝你們。也許我可以就該主題進行後續提問，也許我們只是如何思考——您有如此多的開發計劃，並且您在從 650 到 800 的轉變中做得很好。然而，即使 650 消失，利潤率仍將保持穩定。那麼您如何看待 G 800 和 700 的學習曲線呢？您能否向我們提供有關這些障礙的最新資訊以及我們應該如何考慮這些問題？

Well, we're coming down the learning curve on those on both of those airplanes, 650 was a mature high-margin airplane. So it will take a while for the 800 to reach those similar gross margins. But we like the prospects on both of the -- and all of our airplanes, frankly.

好吧，我們正在學習這兩架飛機，650 是一架成熟的高利潤飛機。因此，800 還需要一段時間才能達到類似的毛利率。但坦白說，我們對這兩款飛機以及我們所有飛機的前景都感到滿意。

And the keys are getting the increasing stabilization of the supply chain, and they've gotten much, much better. say the introduction of the 800 demonstrated the strength of the supply chain as they become more reliable and are better able to keep up with demand as compared to the 700. That supply chain too has stabilized. So we'll continue to see gross margin improvement as we come down our learning curves.

關鍵在於供應鏈的日益穩定，而且情況已經好得多。 800 的推出證明了供應鏈的實力，因為與 700 相比，它們變得更加可靠，並且能夠更好地滿足需求。該供應鏈也已穩定下來。因此，隨著我們學習曲線的下降，我們將繼續看到毛利率的增加。

Can I ask a follow-up again on air source if it's okay. on deliveries and just R&D on the delivery profile for the 700, 800, do we think about that cumulative being the 650? Or is it plus that? And then R&D how much of a tailwind do we see from R&D as you certified some of the major programs?

如果可以的話，我可以再次詢問有關空氣來源的後續問題嗎？關於交付以及 700、800 的交付情況的研發，我們是否認為累計是 650？還是加上那個？然後是研發，當您認證一些主要項目時，我們從研發中看到了多大的順風？

Our R&D will be about the same for a while. We've got developmental programs, and we still have airplanes to get through certification. The 800 is really the replacement for the 650. And that is what we are seeing as the 650 customers are buying the 800 as a replacement to 700, I think, is a market expander. It is a new offering and an element of the market that we didn't have before. So I think net debt, that's a positive growth profile going forward.

我們的研發在一段時間內會保持大致相同。我們有發展計劃，但仍有飛機需要通過認證。800 實際上是 650 的替代品。我們看到 650 名客戶正在購買 800 來取代 700，我認為這是一種市場擴張。這是我們以前沒有的新產品和市場元素。所以我認為淨債務是未來積極的成長前景。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

Good morning. Thank you. Going back to combat, you talked about the value of having the indigenous operations in country in Europe. When you look forward, given the growth potential in Europe, do you expect to be doing more investment there? And could this be beyond just ground vehicles into other areas?

早安.謝謝。回到戰鬥問題，您談到了在歐洲國家進行本土行動的價值。展望未來，考慮到歐洲的成長潛力，您是否預計會在那裡進行更多投資？這是否不僅適用於地面車輛，也適用於其他領域？

We have the facilities and the infrastructure to produce at the moment. I don't see getting out of our core. I don't see moving past tactical bridges or high-end combat vehicles. I think one of the things we have differentiated ourselves as having the discipline to stick with what we know, do what to know well and get better and better and better at it you serve your customers, your people, your shareholders best by doing that. So we'll stick to our noting.

我們目前擁有生產設施和基礎設施。我不認為我們能擺脫核心。我不認為戰術橋樑或高端作戰車輛會得到改進。我認為，我們與眾不同之處之一就是我們堅持我們所知道的，做我們所了解的事情，並且做得越來越好，透過這樣做，我們可以更好地服務您的客戶、您的員工和您的股東。因此我們會堅持我們的記錄。

And then going back to Columbia class, I mean the delays. There's been a lot of discussion about delays. Can you talk a little bit about what has driven those? Have those been related to design changes, supply chain, labor. And you mentioned a little bit about addressing these issues, but can you talk a little bit more about mitigation and where we might end up if things get better there?

然後回到哥倫比亞課堂，我的意思是延遲。關於延誤的討論已經很多了。能否稍微談談這些現象的推波因素？這些是否與設計變更、供應鏈、勞動力有關？您提到了一些解決這些問題的方法，但是您能否再多談談緩解措施以及如果情況好轉我們最終會取得什麼結果？

So I'd say the single largest impact on the cadence of manufacturing and delivering ultimate delivery of the first Columbia has been the supply chain, the fragility of the supply chain as it's tried to ramp up from very low rate production, which has been in for the last 25, 30 years and quintupling that production.

因此，我認為對第一艘哥倫比亞號太空梭的製造和最終交付節奏影響最大的是供應鏈，供應鏈的脆弱性在於它試圖從非常低的生產率提高到現在的五倍，這種生產率已經持續了 25 到 30 年。

That has been the single largest challenge. And the government has recognized that and for the last several years has provided nice robust funding to mature that supply chain and to expand it, and we're beginning to see some of the fruits of that effort pay off. We also, as you know, and this happened through most of US industrials had a had a significant demographic shift as experienced bookers retired, and we had a generational change with younger workers coming on board.

這是最大的挑戰。政府已經認識到這一點，並在過去幾年中提供了大量資金來完善和擴大該供應鏈，我們開始看到這些努力的一些成果。如你所知，這種情況發生在美國大多數工業領域，隨著經驗豐富的預訂員退休，我們經歷了一代又一代更迭，年輕工人加入，人口結構發生了重大變化。

I would say that we've had -- we had invested in our training programs and with the government help are continuing to invest in our training programs so that we -- when the new shipbuilders come out of the training program, there are a higher level of efficiency than they had been in the past. That's all good. with the government's working with the government, we've also been able to increase wages in a wage competitive environment.

我想說的是，我們已經——我們已經投資了我們的培訓項目，並且在政府的幫助下，我們將繼續投資我們的培訓項目，以便——當新的造船工人完成培訓項目時，他們的效率會比過去更高。這一切都很好。在政府的合作下，我們也能夠在薪資競爭環境中提高薪資。

So -- and we're very comfortable that we've got the manpower and the facilities. We've continued to invest in facilities. And as Danny was alluding to, particularly on the productivity side. So I think there is a lot that's beginning to coalesce and come together to reduce risk in this program and bring it to the left. And that is our objective, working very closely with our customer.

所以——我們對擁有的人力和設施感到非常滿意。我們持續對設施進行投資。正如丹尼所暗示的，特別是在生產力方面。因此，我認為許多因素正在開始融合，共同努力降低該計劃的風險，並使其向左發展。這就是我們的目標，與我們的客戶密切合作。

Richard Safran, Seaport Research Partners.

理查德‧薩夫蘭 (Richard Safran)，海港研究夥伴。

If it's okay, I just have a -- I'm going to ask one two-part question on contracting. And right off the bat, I'm not asking for anything on specific contracts. Generally speaking, could you comment on changes to the contracting environment you're seeing with the new administration. There was some chatter about award fees and incentive fees. And I'm just wondering what you're seeing in new contracts?

如果可以的話，我只想問一個關於承包的兩部分問題。首先，我並沒有要求任何具體的合約。整體來說，您能否評論一下新政府執政以來合約環境的變化？有一些關於獎勵費和激勵費的討論。我只是想知道您在新合約中看到了什麼？

And then second, just with respect to international, are you seeing more of an influx of direct commercial awards versus FMS? I was just kind of curious as what the mix is, given all the new awards you've been getting. Thanks.

其次，就國際而言，您是否看到直接商業獎項的湧入比 FMS 的湧入更多？我只是有點好奇，考慮到你獲得的所有新獎項，這是什麼組合。謝謝。

So I don't know that I've seen wholesale change in contracting other than there's been an emphasis on speed. And in so with some customers, we've seen faster contracting and in others, a little bit more prolonged. So I can't say that across the entire portfolio that we've seen any wholesale changes. I think that we've got a sophisticated buyer and we are working with them right now on several large contracts.

因此，除了強調速度之外，我不知道我是否看到過承包方面有全面變化。對於某些客戶，我們看到簽約速度更快，而對於其他客戶，簽約時間則更長一些。因此，我不能說我們已經看到了整個投資組合的任何全面變化。我認為我們有一個精明的買家，我們現在正在與他們就幾份大合約進行合作。

So I don't know that I can offer any holistic or observations on that front. We have seen, again, if you step back and look at the entirety of the Federal workplace, we've seen the retirement of at least in the markets that we plan, retirement of experience contracting personnel with an increase in newer contracting folks will have to come down their learning curves, but I suspect that it will do so in time. With respect to international orders, there is a quite a robust pipeline for FMS, but it is slow to materialize. We know the demand is out there. When it comes through the FMS process is always a question.

所以我不知道我是否可以就此提供任何整體意見或觀察。我們再次看到，如果你退一步看看整個聯邦工作場所，我們至少會看到在我們計劃的市場中退休，經驗豐富的合約人員退休，而新合約人員的增加將不得不降低他們的學習曲線，但我認為它會及時這樣做。就國際訂單而言，FMS 擁有相當強大的管道，但實現速度較慢。我們知道有這樣的需求。當它通過 FMS 流程時始終是一個問題。

In Europe, we have direct commercial sales and sometimes the ex US and other places in the East. And we'll see as the munitions demand ramps up, that could be a combination of both direct commercial sales and foreign military sales.

在歐洲，我們有直接的商業銷售，有時也銷往美國和東方的其他地方。我們將看到，隨著彈藥需求的增加，這可能是直接商業銷售和對外軍事銷售的結合。

Well, thank you very much

嗯，非常感謝

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納（Gautam Khanna），TD Cowen。

Hi, good morning guys. Thank you, good morning. Wanted to follow up on Rich's question actually with respect to Marine, and I know you guys are in talks for five Columbia class and the next Virginia Class Block wanted to get your expectations around timing in the form of that contract. Do you think you'll get all of them ordered at once? Or is it going to be incremental, maybe when? And if the contract terms might actually be a little more favorable with the government taking on a little more risk than they were willing to in the prior administration.

大家早安。謝謝，早安。實際上，我想跟進 Rich 關於海軍陸戰隊的問題，我知道你們正在就五艘哥倫比亞級潛艇和下一艘弗吉尼亞級潛艇進行談判，我想以合約的形式了解你們對時間安排的期望。您認為您能一次訂購完所有商品嗎？或者它會是漸進式的，什麼時候？如果合約條款實際上可能更有利一些，政府願意承擔的風險會比前政府更大一些。

Well, the operating assumption is that those contracts are executed this year. We're certainly not going to get into any particulars of those contracts. They'll be very large, highly complex contracts. And once we sign them, we can -- and we'll be a little bit as we have been in the past, transparent about what the incentives and obligations are in those contracts. But we've had and we'll continue to have and see even more working close working relationship between the government and us as we try to solve mutual problem.

嗯，營運假設是這些合約將在今年執行。我們當然不會深入討論這些合約的任何細節。這些合約規模將會非常大，而且非常複雜。一旦我們簽署了這些協議，我們就可以——我們會像過去一樣，對這些合約中的激勵措施和義務保持透明。但是，在我們努力解決共同問題的過程中，我們已經並將繼續保持和看到政府與我們的更密切的工作關係。

How do we get shipbuilding throughput increased and while maintaining the quality. So we remain optimistic that together as partners will drive a lot of that change and move these move these deliveries to the left. Thank you.

我們如何提高造船產量並同時保持品質。因此，我們仍然樂觀地認為，作為合作夥伴，我們將共同推動許多變革，並將這些變革轉移到左翼。謝謝。

And Eric, I think we have time for just one more question.

艾瑞克，我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Scott Mikus, Melius Research.

米庫斯 (Scott Mikus)，Melius Research。

Morning -- very nice results. Historically, you've talked about Colombia driving $400 million to $500 million of annual sales growth at Marine. It's been significantly higher than that in the past couple of years. Obviously, very strong growth on tough comps again this year. So if we're going to progress to two plus one on Virginia and Colombia, should Marine sustainably be growing sales at least $1 billion per annum until we hit that cadence? And then once we do hit that cadence, is that when marine margins get back to the 8% to 9% range?

早安——結果非常好。從歷史上看，您曾談到哥倫比亞推動 Marine 每年 4 億至 5 億美元的銷售額成長。過去幾年，這數字明顯高於此。顯然，今年的強勁成長再次出現。因此，如果我們要在維吉尼亞和哥倫比亞兩地實現雙贏，那麼 Marine 是否應該持續保持每年至少 10 億美元的銷售額成長，直到達到這一節奏？那麼，一旦我們達到這個節奏，海運利潤率是否會回到 8% 到 9% 的範圍？

So I think it's a way to think about this is that we anticipate similar growth that we've seen over the last few years. And when you think about -- so I don't see that, at least in the near term changing, but it's been very robust growth. But when you think about margins, I think Danny walked you through kind of what are the main drivers. And it's primarily stabilizing that supply chain and increasing our throughput so that we can both offset any supply chain perturbations.

所以我認為思考這個問題的一種方式是，我們預期會出現與過去幾年類似的成長。當你思考一下——我認為至少在短期內不會發生改變，但成長非常強勁。但是當你考慮利潤時，我認為丹尼會向你介紹主要的驅動因素是什麼。它主要是為了穩定供應鏈並提高我們的吞吐量，以便我們可以抵消任何供應鏈幹擾。

And I think that's the best way to margin improvement, and it is very importantly, the best way to accelerate the throughput. I don't know if you want to add anything on that, Danny. SP1 Yes. No, I think you've captured it to the extent that the supply chain stabilizes. I think that's where we will see meaningful margin expansion.

我認為這是提高利潤率的最佳方法，而且非常重要的是，這是加速吞吐量的最佳方法。我不知道你是否想對此補充什麼，丹尼。SP1 是的。不，我認為你已經掌握了供應鏈穩定的程度。我認為這就是我們將看到利潤率大幅擴大的地方。

Okay. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. Please refer to the General Dynamics website for the third quarter earnings release and highlights presentation. As a reminder, we will resume our normal reporting schedule of Wednesday at 9:00 AM for our fourth quarter call. If you have additional questions, I can be reached at (703) 876-3152. Thank you.

好的。好吧，謝謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。請參閱通用動力公司網站以了解第三季財報和重點介紹。提醒一下，我們將於週三上午 9:00 恢復正常的報告時間表，以召開第四季度電話會議。如果您還有其他問題，請撥打 (703) 876-3152 與我聯絡。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。