通用動力 (GD) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the General Dynamics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加通用動力公司 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Nicole Shelton, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Nicole Shelton。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the General Dynamics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。歡迎參加通用動力公司 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

Any forward-looking statements made today represent our estimates regarding the company's outlook. These estimates are subject to some risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings.

今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述均代表我們對公司前景的估計。這些估計值受到一些風險和不確定性的影響。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊包含在公司的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中。

We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see the press release and slides that accompany this webcast, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website, investorrelations.gd.com.

我們也將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非 GAAP 指標的更多披露信息，包括與可比 GAAP 指標的對賬，請參閱本次網絡廣播附帶的新聞稿和幻燈片，可在我們網站 investorrelations.gd.com 的投資者關係頁面找到。

On the call today are Phebe Novakovic, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Kimberly Kuryea, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Phebe.

今天參加電話會議的有我們的董事長兼執行長 Phebe Novakovic；以及財務長 Kimberly Kuryea。現在我將電話轉給 Phebe。

Thank you, Nicole. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for being with us. Earlier this morning, we reported fourth quarter earnings of $4.15 per diluted share on revenue of $13.338 billion, operating earnings of $1.423 billion and net earnings of $1.148 billion. As you will see, this performance and the resulting performance for the year compare quite favorably to all relevant prior periods.

謝謝你，妮可。大家早安，感謝大家與我們同在。今天早些時候，我們報告第四季每股攤薄收益為 4.15 美元，營收為 133.38 億美元，營業收益為 14.23 億美元，淨收益為 11.48 億美元。如您所見，這一表現以及全年的業績與所有相關的先前時期相比都非常有利。

To briefly summarize, on a quarter over year ago quarter basis, revenue is up 14.3%. Operating earnings are up 10.5%, net earnings are up 14.2%, and earnings per diluted share are up 14%. It is fair to say that the quarter-over-quarter results are quite strong.

簡單來說，與去年同期相比，營收成長了 14.3%。營業利潤成長10.5%，淨利成長14.2%，每股攤薄收益成長14%。公平地說，季度環比業績相當強勁。

Sequential results are similar. Here, we beat the prior quarter's revenue by 14.3%, operating earnings by 20.5%, net earnings by 23.9%, and fully diluted EPS by 23.4%.

順序結果類似。與上一季相比，我們的營收成長了 14.3%，營業收入成長了 20.5%，淨收入成長了 23.9%，全面攤薄每股收益成長了 23.4%。

The full year is also a common theme. Revenue is 12.9%. Operating earnings are up 13%. Net earnings are up 14.1%, and fully diluted EPS is up 13.4%. Both revenue and operating earnings were up for each of the segments, led by aerospace, with revenue growth of 30.5%, and with operating earnings growth of 23.9%. While we beat consensus for the year by $0.05, we did not beat our own expectations and prior guidance for reasons largely beyond our control. This leads me to a discussion of the segments.

全年也是一個共同的主題。收入為12.9%。營業收入成長13%。淨利成長14.1%，全面攤薄每股收益成長13.4%。各部門的收入和營業利潤均有所增長，其中航空航天部門的收入增長了 30.5%，營業利潤增長了 23.9%。雖然我們今年的預期比普遍預期高出 0.05 美元，但由於很大程度上我們無法控制的原因，我們並未超越自己的預期和先前的指導。這使我開始對這些片段進行討論。

First, aerospace. The real story in aerospace is found in the continuing growth of both revenue and earnings. The continuing strong demand for Gulfstream aircraft, the overall strength of Gulfstream service business and the continuing growth and performance improvement at Jet Aviation. In the quarter, aerospace had revenue of $3.7 billion and earnings of $585 million. This represents a stunning 36.4% increase in revenue and a 30.3% increase in earnings on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

第一，航空航天。航空航太產業的真正故事在於收入和收益的持續成長。灣流飛機的需求持續強勁，灣流服務業務的整體實力以及噴射航空的持續成長和業績提升。本季度，航空航太業務收入為 37 億美元，收益為 5.85 億美元。這意味著收入環比增長了 36.4%，收益環比增長了 30.3%。

The sequential numbers are even stronger. With a 51% increase in revenue, coupled with a staggering 92% increase in operating earnings. The important point here is the dramatic increase in deliveries of in-service airplanes in the quarter, 47 versus 28 in the third quarter of 2024. For the year, aerospace revenue of $11.25 billion is up 30.5% greater than 2023. The earnings of $1.5 billion are up 23.9% over '23.

連續的數字甚至更加強勁。收入增加了 51%，營業收入也增加了驚人的 92%。這裡的重點是本季在役飛機的交付數量急劇增加，為 47 架，而 2024 年第三季為 28 架。今年航空航太收入為 112.5 億美元，比 2023 年成長 30.5%。15 億美元的收益比 23 年增長了 23.9%。

Revenue growth was driven by the delivery of 25 more aircraft than in '23. Earnings suffered a 70-basis-point margin compression from the prior year, largely driven by all the costs associated with getting the G700 certified in the early part of the year, and the unexpected costs incurred getting the G700s out the door. Nevertheless, aerospace revenue and earnings are less than we anticipated for both the quarter and the year, because we did not deliver as many 700s as planned.

收入成長的動力來自於交付的飛機數量比23年多25架。獲利利潤率較去年同期下降了 70 個基點，主要原因是年初獲得 G700 認證的所有相關成本，以及 G700 上市產生的意外成本。儘管如此，由於我們沒有按計劃交付那麼多 700 架飛機，因此本季和全年的航空航太收入和收益都低於我們的預期。

We did, however, deliver 15 in the quarter and 30 for the year. You will recall that I told you that we expected to deliver 50 to 52 G700 this year, and the deliveries would be more or less evenly divided over the last three quarters of the year. While we planned 15 for Q2 and delivered 11, we planned 15 to 16 for Q3 and delivered 4. In the fourth quarter, we believe that we could deliver 27 but delivered 15. So what happened that caused us to fall short of plan?

然而，我們本季交付了 15 輛，全年交付了 30 輛。您可能還記得，我曾告訴過您，我們預計今年將交付 50 到 52 架 G700，而且交付量將大致均勻地分佈在今年最後三個季度。我們計劃在第二季交付 15 個，但交付了 11 個；而我們計劃在第三季交付 15 到 16 個，但交付了 4 個。在第四季度，我們相信我們可以實現 27 個目標，但實際上只實現了 15 個。那麼發生了什麼，導致我們未能完成計劃？

Let me identify the most important and impactful reasons and then talk about the implications of all of this for '25. First, aircraft engines arrive significantly late to schedule. We painted the aircraft before the engines arrived. This led to a significant amount of repaint that resulted in increased cost and time spent. But more importantly, we elected to induct these aircraft into our completion centers before installing engines. This represented a significant deviation from our process and proved to be detrimental to both cost and schedule.

讓我找出最重要的、最有影響力的原因，然後談談所有這些對『25年的影響。首先，飛機引擎的到達時間大大晚於計畫。我們在發動機到達之前對飛機進行了噴漆。這導致需要進行大量重新上漆，從而增加了成本和時間。但更重要的是，我們選擇在安裝引擎之前將這些飛機引入我們的完工中心。這與我們的流程有很大偏差，而且對成本和進度都有不利影響。

Normally, before a green aircraft is inducted into a completion center, we run the engines and test all the plan systems under power, which typically leads to additional actions to correct any issues that might arise. Once the aircraft begins at completion phase, these tests and follow-on corrections are substantially more cumbersome. So it seemed like a rational decision at the time, turned out to be quite troublesome. The good news is that most of the time-consuming aspects of this issue are behind us. We are now largely receiving engines to schedule, and quality escapes are more predictable, and appropriate fixes well known.

通常，在綠色飛機進入完成中心之前，我們會啟動引擎並對所有計劃系統進行動力測試，這通常會導致採取額外措施來糾正可能出現的任何問題。一旦飛機開始進入完工階段，這些測試和後續校正就會變得更加繁瑣。所以當時這似乎是個理性的決定，但結果卻相當麻煩。好消息是，這個問題大部分耗時的部分都已經成為過去。現在，我們基本上都是按計劃接收發動機，質量漏洞也更加可預測，適當的修復方法也廣為人知。

Second, many of the aircraft planned for delivery in the quarter had highly customized interiors, first-of-type intricacies. These intricacies are considered to be major changes for regulatory purposes. This resulted in longer-than-anticipated efforts to finalize and achieve supplemental-type certificates. This problem is largely behind us.

其次，本季計劃交付的許多飛機都擁有高度客製化的內飾，這是同類飛機中首創的複雜設計。這些複雜之處被視為監管目的的重大變化。這導致最終確定和獲得補充證書的努力比預期要長。這個問題基本上已經過去了。

Third, and maybe most important. Late in the third quarter, a supplier quality escape on a specific component caused the replacement of several components on each planned aircraft delivery. The supplier was fully cooperative and is providing replacement components for all of our needs, but this rework has increased the number of test flights necessary to obtain the final certificate of airworthiness for each aircraft. So the removal and replacement of these components has impacted labor costs and schedule adversely. While it had a significant impact in both the third and fourth quarters, we have largely worked our way through this problem with the cooperation of the vendor.

第三，也許是最重要的。第三季末，由於某個零件的供應商出現品質問題，導致每架計畫交付的飛機都需要更換多個零件。供應商全力配合，為我們所有的需求提供了替換零件，但這次返工增加了每架飛機獲得最終適航證書所需的試飛次數。因此，拆除和更換這些零件會對勞動成本和進度產生不利影響。雖然它對第三季和第四季都產生了重大影響，但在供應商的合作下，我們基本上已經解決了這個問題。

Finally, many of the early deliveries were to buyers located in foreign countries where we were making first-time deliveries. While they recognize the FAA certification, they have a separate and sometimes extended inquiry before issuing the registration. This is, in many respects, also behind us. The supply chain is now performing much better to schedule. And even though we continue to be surprised by some quality escapes the time it takes to identify and fix these faults has significantly improved.

最後，許多早期交貨都是發給位於國外的買家，這是我們首次向他們交貨。雖然他們承認 FAA 認證，但在頒發註冊證書之前他們會進行單獨的、有時是延長的調查。從很多方面來看，這也已經變成過去了。供應鏈目前的運作情況比計畫的要好得多。儘管我們繼續對一些品質問題感到驚訝，但識別和修復這些缺陷所需的時間已經顯著改善。

Turning to market demand. We had a 1:1 book-to-bill in the quarter and for the year, even as aircraft deliveries increased. Orders were largely consistent with our internal plan. The delivery of the G700 and its performance in customer hands is driving increased demand for it, which we experienced in the quarter. After some slowing in the US during the second and third quarters, we continue to see improved interest across all models in both the US and Europe. Middle East activity is quite strong and current activity in Southeast Asia and China has also improved. Interestingly, the overall number of prospects in all areas continues to increase.

轉向市場需求。儘管飛機交付量有所增加，但本季和全年的訂單出貨比均為 1：1。訂單與我們的內部計劃基本一致。G700 的交付及其在客戶手中的表現推動了其需求的成長，這是我們在本季度經歷的。在美國第二季和第三季出現一些放緩之後，我們繼續看到美國和歐洲對所有車型的興趣有所提高。中東的活動相當強勁，目前東南亞和中國的活動也有所改善。有趣的是，各領域的潛在客戶總數都持續增加。

So let's move on to the defense businesses. Combat systems had revenue of $2.4 billion for the quarter, moderately more than a year ago quarter. Earnings of $356 million are also up modestly on a 10 basis point operating margin improvement. Operating margin of 14.9% is quite wholesome. The sequential growth in revenue and earnings at 8.3% and 9.5%, respectively, is stronger, particularly with strength at OTS.

我們來談談國防業務。本季作戰系統營收為 24 億美元，比去年同期略有成長。由於營業利潤率提高了 10 個基點，收益也小漲至 3.56 億美元。14.9%的營業利益率相當可觀。營收和收益分別較上季成長 8.3% 和 9.5%，增幅更為強勁，尤其是 OTS 的強勁表​​現。

For the full year, revenue of $9 billion is up 8.8% and earnings of $1.3 billion or up 11.2%, resulting in a 30 basis point increase in operating margins as compared to a year ago. All in all, very nice growth profile. Combat saw robust order intake over the course of the year, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.3:1.

全年營收 90 億美元，成長 8.8%，收益 13 億美元，成長 11.2%，營業利潤率較去年同期增加 30 個基點。整體而言，成長情況非常好。Combat 公司在一年中訂單量強勁，訂單出貨比達到 1.3:1。

Orders came from across the portfolio with notable awards in munitions and international vehicle programs. New capacity to meet demand for artillery is coming online in our munitions business, which will drive additional munitions growth. Demand remains strong in the US and former allies, particularly in the combat, vehicle tracked and wheeled business. This, coupled with combat strong overall backlog of nearly $17 billion positions the group well for continued strong performance. In short, this group had a very solid year with strong revenue growth, expanded margins, durable order activity and a strong order pipeline as we go forward.

訂單來自整個投資組合，並在彈藥和國際車輛項目方面獲得了顯著的獎項。我們的彈藥業務正在形成新的產能來滿足火砲的需求，這將推動彈藥的進一步成長。美國及其前盟友的需求依然強勁，特別是在戰鬥、履帶和輪式車輛業務方面。除此之外，加上近 170 億美元的強勁整體積壓訂單，該集團預計將持續保持強勁表現。簡而言之，該集團度過了非常穩健的一年，收入成長強勁，利潤率提高，訂單活動持久，並且未來訂單管道強勁。

Turning to marine systems. Once again, our shipbuilding group had strong revenue growth. Marine revenue of $4 billion is up 16.2% against the year ago quarter. Columbia class and Virginia class construction, and TAL volume drove the growth. DDG 51 revenue also increased measurably. In short, impressive growth, by any standard.

轉向海洋系統。我們的造船集團收入再次實現強勁成長。海運收入為 40 億美元，較去年同期成長 16.2%。哥倫比亞級和維吉尼亞級的建造以及TAL的銷售推動了成長。DDG 51 的收入也大幅增加。簡而言之，無論以什麼標準衡量，這都是令人印象深刻的成長。

Operating earnings of $200 million are down 7.8% in the quarter with a 130 basis point decrease in operating margin. Margins continue to be adversely impacted by additional delays in quality issues from the submarine supply chain. Sequentially, revenue increased 10%, while earnings were down 22.5% for the reasons I just mentioned. For the full year, marine revenue of $14.3 billion is up 15.1% and earnings of $935 million are up 7%, certainly a better result than the fourth quarter taken alone.

本季營業收入 2 億美元，下降 7.8%，營業利益率下降 130 個基點。潛艇供應鏈品質問題的進一步延遲繼續對利潤率產生不利影響。與上一季相比，營收成長了 10%，而由於我剛才提到的原因，收益卻下降了 22.5%。全年海事收入 143 億美元，成長 15.1%，收益 9.35 億美元，成長 7%，這一成績肯定比第四季單獨表現更好。

The operating metrics tell us that we have, in fact, increased our productivity to somewhat offset increased costs, but not enough. So across the business, we have seen rapid growth of revenue and more modest growth in earnings. As I told you last quarter, although the submarine supply chain is improving in places, out of sequence work continues to increase our costs.

營運指標告訴我們，事實上，我們已經提高了生產力，在某種程度上抵消了增加的成本，但還不夠。因此，在整個業務範圍內，我們看到收入快速成長，而獲利成長較為溫和。正如我上個季度所說的那樣，儘管潛艇供應鏈在某些地方有所改善，但不按順序進行的工作仍在繼續增加我們的成本。

In addition, we have seen increased quality problems from the supply chain that have further disrupted our build plan and driven increased costs for quality control and inspection at EB. That said, we continue to drive productivity improvements and are redoubling our cost cutting by reducing overhead and increasing our planning efficiency.

此外，我們發現供應鏈中的品質問題不斷增加，這進一步擾亂了我們的生產計劃，並增加了 EB 的品質控制和檢查成本。儘管如此，我們仍將繼續提高生產力，並透過減少管理費用和提高規劃效率來加倍削減成本。

In addition, the Congress recently passed the continuing resolution that included nearly $9 billion for Columbia class construction and $5.7 billion for Virginia class programs. While the Columbia portion of the CR is primarily to maintain the funding plan impacted by the delay in the 2025 budget, the Virginia class funds provide the following. They allow the Navy to cover fact-of-life cost increases on the two [FY 23rd] boats and one F 25 boat. They also provide funds for additional workforce development and allow us to target funding at specific productivity areas that we are working out with our customers. We are working with our customer to get this under contract as soon as possible.

此外，國會最近通過了一項持續決議，其中包括為哥倫比亞級潛艇建造撥款近 90 億美元，為維吉尼亞級潛艇計畫撥款 57 億美元。雖然 CR 的哥倫比亞部分主要用於維持受 2025 年預算延遲影響的資金計劃，但維吉尼亞級資金提供了以下資金。它們使海軍能夠承擔兩艘（23 財年）潛艇和一艘 F 25 潛艇的實際成本增加。他們還為額外的勞動力發展提供資金，並允許我們將資金用於我們正在與客戶合作的特定生產力領域。我們正在與客戶合作，盡快簽約。

In addition, the Navy is continuing to push funding into the industrial base to help improve their output timing and quality. This effort over time will help -- all of this tells us that we should see some improvement in the supply chain slowly, but surely. Until then, we continue to control what we can control by increasing our own productivity and cutting costs.

此外，海軍正在繼續向工業基地投入資金，以幫助提高其產出及時性和品質。隨著時間的推移，這種努力將會有所幫助——所有這些都告訴我們，我們應該緩慢但肯定地看到供應鏈有所改善。在此之前，我們將繼續透過提高自身生產力和削減成本來控制我們能夠控制的事情。

And lastly, technologies. It was another strong quarter with revenue of $3.24 billion, up 2.8% over the prior year. Operating earnings in the quarter are $319 million, up 4.6% on a margin of 9.8%, a 10 basis point improvement over the fourth quarter a year ago. The full year comparisons are similar. Revenue at $13.1 billion is up 1.6%. Earnings of $1.26 billion are up 4.8% on a 30 basis point improvement in operating margin.

最後是技術。本季業績表現強勁，營收達 32.4 億美元，較上年同期成長 2.8%。本季營業利潤為 3.19 億美元，成長 4.6%，利潤率為 9.8%，比去年同期第四季提高了 10 個基點。全年對比情況也類似。營收為 131 億美元，成長 1.6%。收益為 12.6 億美元，成長 4.8%，營業利潤率提高了 30 個基點。

Both businesses finished a really good year with a strong fourth quarter. In particular, GDIT delivered their fourth consecutive year of revenue and earnings growth, resulting in their highest ever revenue and earnings and their strongest operating margin over this period.

兩家公司都以第四季的強勁表現結束了這一年的輝煌。特別是，GDIT 連續第四年實現營收和獲利成長，創下歷史新高，同時也創下本季最強勁的營業利潤率。

Mission systems had a good year as well. Their focus has been on margin expansion as they transition from sunsetting legacy programs to new program wins. So while their revenue was down about 2% year-over-year, earnings were up 5.5% on a 90 basis point improvement in margin. We expect 2025 to be the final year of the program transition at mission systems with growth on both the top line and bottom line thereafter.

任務系統今年也取得了豐碩的成果。在他們從淘汰舊項目轉向贏得新項目的過程中，他們的重點一直是擴大利潤。因此，雖然他們的營收年減了約 2%，但利潤率提高了 90 個基點，但獲利卻增加了 5.5%。我們預計 2025 年將是任務系統專案轉型的最後一年，此後營收和利潤都將成長。

Turning to orders. The group had very nice order activity for the year. Total orders for the group reached a record level of $14.7 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.1 for the year. Similarly, the total awards, including options and IDIQ value were $21.8 billion. That led to an 18% increase in total potential contract value to $48.1 billion, which positions them nicely to continue on their growth trajectory.

轉向訂單。集團全年訂單活動非常好。該集團訂單總額達到創紀錄的 147 億美元，全年訂單出貨比達到 1.1。同樣，包括選擇權和 IDIQ 價值在內的總獎勵為 218 億美元。這使得潛在合約總價值增加 18%，達到 481 億美元，為他們繼續保持成長軌跡奠定了良好的基礎。

The group's win rates remain very strong in the low 80% range for the year, and their capture rate remains in the mid-60% range, both very strong for this industry. GDIT's digital accelerated investments are yielding very good results driving almost $7.5 billion in award value in 2024 alone and a total of $10 billion in awards since they launched the program two years ago. Likewise, mission systems secured a number of marquee wins last year as a result of their investments in innovative technology, including space ground systems, strategic recapitalization programs and Canadian land C4ISR systems. All in all, a strong year for the technologies group.

該集團的勝率全年保持在 80% 的低位，非常強勁，而其捕獲率保持在 60% 的中位，這兩個數字對於該行業來說都非常強勁。GDIT 的數位加速投資取得了非常好的成果，光是在 2024 年就推動了近 75 億美元的獎勵價值，自兩年前啟動該計畫以來，獎勵總額已達到 100 億美元。同樣，任務系統由於在創新技術方面的投資，去年獲得了許多重大勝利，包括太空地面系統、戰略資本重組計劃和加拿大陸地 C4ISR 系統。整體而言，對於科技集團來說，這是強勁的一年。

This concludes my comments about the defense businesses. Let me ask Kim to provide detail on our cash performance for the quarter and the year, overall order activity and backlog, share repurchase activity and other items. I will then come back to discuss our thoughts on 2025.

這是我對國防企業的評論。我請 Kim 詳細介紹我們本季和本年度的現金表現、整體訂單活動和積壓訂單、股票回購活動和其他項目。然後我會回來討論我們對 2025 年的想法。

Thank you, Phebe, and good morning. Let me first start with orders and backlog. Our order activity and backlog continued to be a strong story for us in 2024. We achieved an overall book-to-bill ratio for the year of 1:1, while revenue grew 13%. Combat systems and technologies led the way with book-to-bill of 1.3 times and 1.1 times, respectively. Aerospace finished strong, resulting in a dollar-based book-to-bill for the year of 1 times, even as Gulfstream aircraft deliveries increased over 20% and their revenue grew about 31% from the prior year.

謝謝你，Phebe，早安。讓我先從訂單和積壓訂單開始。2024 年，我們的訂單活動和積壓訂單持續保持強勁成長。我們全年實現了 1：1 的整體訂單出貨比，同時營收成長了 13%。作戰系統和技術處於領先地位，訂單出貨比分別為 1.3 倍和 1.1 倍。航空航太業務表現強勁，全年以美元計算的訂單出貨比為 1 倍，儘管灣流飛機的交付量比上年增長了 20% 以上，其收入也增長了約 31%。

We finished 2024 with total backlog of $90.6 billion, the seventh consecutive quarter that backlog remained above $90 billion, demonstrating its durability during a period of robust growth. Total estimated contract value, which includes options and IDIQ contracts, ended the year at another record level of $144 billion, a 9% increase from last year. This increase was driven by our technology segment as it continued to capture major opportunities including record awards at GDIT.

截至 2024 年，我們的總積壓訂單金額為 906 億美元，這是積壓訂單金額連續第七個季度保持在 900 億美元以上，證明了其在強勁增長時期的持久性。包括選擇權和 IDIQ 合約在內的總預期合約價值在年底達到了創紀錄的 1,440 億美元，比去年增長了 9%。這一成長主要得益於我們的技術部門繼續抓住重大機遇，包括 GDIT 的創紀錄獎項。

Turning now to our cash performance. As expected, the fourth quarter was a strong cash quarter with operating cash flow of $2.2 billion, which brings us to $4.1 billion of operating cash flow for the year. In the quarter, combat systems had particularly strong cash generation, while aerospace and technologies had solid quarters as well. We have said repeatedly that we strive for a cash conversion at or around 100%. For 2024, our free cash flow was $3.2 billion, a cash conversion rate of 85%. Recall that 2023 free cash flow was 115% and that the 2022 through 2024 average was 100%.

現在來談談我們的現金表現。正如預期的那樣，第四季現金流強勁，營運現金流為 22 億美元，這使我們全年的營運現金流達到 41 億美元。本季，作戰系統的現金產生能力特別強勁，而航空航太和技術部門的現金產生能力同樣穩健。我們一再表示，我們力求實現現金轉換率達到 100% 左右。2024 年，我們的自由現金流為 32 億美元，現金轉換率為 85%。回想一下，2023 年的自由現金流為 115%，而 2022 年至 2024 年的平均值是 100%。

We experienced working capital growth in inventories at Gulfstream due to delayed deliveries and as production continued to ramp up. Another reason for working capital growth is that two of our fastest-growing defense businesses, EB and OTS had customer-funded material purchases on undefinitized contracts. The cash associated with the unbilled profit is not collected until the contract is definitized. We expect working capital will continue to build in 2025 and unwind in '26, although it could be earlier.

由於交貨延遲和產量持續提升，灣流公司的庫存營運資本出現成長。營運資本成長的另一個原因是，我們成長最快的兩個國防業務 EB 和 OTS 均以未確定的合約形式進行客戶資助的材料採購。未開票利潤相關的現金直到合約最終確定後才能收取。我們預計營運資本將在 2025 年繼續增加，並在 2026 年減少，儘管可能更早。

Looking next to capital deployment. Capital expenditures in the fourth quarter were $355 million, which adds up to $916 million for the full year. At 1.9% of sales, full year capital expenditures were in line with our expectations. We paid $389 million in dividends in the fourth quarter, bringing the full year to $1.5 billion. We also repurchased 4.8 million shares of our stock in the quarter, for $1.3 billion. So we finished the year with 5.4 million shares repurchased for $1.5 billion, at an average price of $277 per share. In total, for the year, it is important to note that approximately 95% of our free cash flow was returned to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

接下來看資本部署。第四季資本支出為3.55億美元，全年資本支出達9.16億美元。全年資本支出佔銷售額的 1.9%，符合我們的預期。我們在第四季支付了 3.89 億美元的股息，全年股息達到 15 億美元。我們也在本季回購了 480 萬股股票，價值 13 億美元。因此，我們在年底回購了 540 萬股，回購總額為 15 億美元，平均價格為每股 277 美元。總體而言，值得注意的是，今年我們約有 95% 的自由現金流以股息和股票回購的形式返還給了股東。

We repaid $500 million of maturing notes in the fourth quarter and ended the year with a cash balance of $1.7 billion. That brings us to a net debt position of $7.1 billion, down approximately $300 million from last year. We also contributed $73 million to our pension plans. Our net interest expense in the fourth quarter was $76 million, bringing interest expense for the full year to $324 million. That compares to $78 million and $343 million in the respective 2023 period.

我們在第四季償還了 5 億美元的到期票據，年底的現金餘額為 17 億美元。這意味著我們的淨債務達到了 71 億美元，比去年減少了約 3 億美元。我們也向退休金計畫投入了 7,300 萬美元。我們第四季的淨利息支出為 7,600 萬美元，全年利息支出達到 3.24 億美元。相較之下，2023 年分別為 7,800 萬美元和 3.43 億美元。

Turning to 2025. While 100% of on average cash conversion has been our goal, we may come in lighter between 80% and 85% for several reasons. While we expect CapEx and interest expense to be relatively flat, we have a 27th pay period at a couple of our businesses, which requires an additional $175 million this year. And as I noted earlier, working capital will continue to build at least through part of the year.

展望2025年。雖然我們的目標是平均現金轉換率達到 100％，但由於多種原因，我們的現金轉換率可能會降低到 80％ 到 85％ 之間。雖然我們預計資本支出和利息支出將相對持平，但我們的幾家企業已進入第 27 個付款期，這需要今年額外支付 1.75 億美元。正如我之前提到的，營運資金至少在今年部分時間內將繼續增加。

As far as capital deployment goes, we will continue to fund the dividend and buy shares when appropriate. We also have $1.5 billion of debt maturing in the second quarter, the disposition of which we will address them. Finally, our cash taxes and pension contributions are expected to increase.

就資本部署而言，我們將繼續支付股息並在適當的時候買入股票。我們還有 15 億美元的債務將在第二季到期，我們將妥善處理這些債務。最後，我們的現金稅和退休金繳款預計會增加。

Turning now to income taxes. Our 2024 full year rate ended up at 16.7%. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect the full year effective tax rate to increase to around 17.5%. Phebe, that concludes my remarks. I'll turn it back over to you.

現在來談談所得稅。我們的 2024 年全年利率最終達到 16.7%。展望2025年，我們預計全年有效稅率將增至17.5%左右。菲比，我的發言到此結束。我會把它交還給你。

Thank you, Kim. So let me provide our operating forecast for 2025 with some color around our outlook for each business group and then the company-wide rollup.

謝謝你，金。因此，讓我提供我們對 2025 年的營運預測，包括對每個業務部門的前景以及全公司的整體情況。

In 2025, we expect aerospace revenue around $12.650 billion, up around $1.4 billion over 2024. Operating margin is expected to be up 70 basis points to 13.7%. This should result in an 18.5% increase in earnings, up between $270 million to $275 million. Gulfstream deliveries will be 150, materially over the 136 delivered in 2024. As I just noted, we anticipate a 13.7% operating margin for the year, quite a bit stronger in the first quarter, but weaker in the second and third quarters, followed by a strong fourth quarter. Given the delivery challenges we have had with the G700s in 2024, we have taken a less aggressive planning posture in 2025.

到 2025 年，我們預計航空航太收入約為 126.5 億美元，比 2024 年增加約 14 億美元。預計營業利潤率將上升 70 個基點，達到 13.7%。這將使收益增加 18.5%，達到 2.7 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間。灣流飛機交付量將達到 150 架，大幅超過 2024 年交付的 136 架。正如我剛才提到的，我們預計全年營業利潤率為 13.7%，第一季會略有提高，但第二季和第三季會減弱，而第四季則會表現強勁。考慮到我們在 2024 年 G700 交付方面遇到的挑戰，我們在 2025 年採取了較不積極的規劃態勢。

In combat systems, we expect revenue to be up slightly to about $9.1 billion, coupled with a 30 basis point improvement in operating margin of 14.5%. This should lead to improved earnings 3.5% to 4% better than in 2024. As I noted earlier, the marine group has been on a remarkable growth journey. It will continue in 2025, albeit at a slightly lower rate. Our outlook for this year anticipates revenue of around $15 billion with operating margin improvement to 6.8%, which should result in 10% or better improvement in earnings in 2025.

在作戰系統方面，我們預期營收將小幅上漲至約 91 億美元，同時營業利潤率將提高 30 個基點，達到 14.5%。這將使盈利比 2024 年提高 3.5% 至 4%。正如我之前提到的，海洋集團已經經歷了一段非凡的成長歷程。2025 年，這一趨勢仍將持續，儘管速度會略低。我們預計今年的收入將達到 150 億美元左右，營業利潤率將提高至 6.8%，這將導致 2025 年的獲利成長 10% 或更高。

In technologies, 2025 revenue is expected to be $13.5 billion. Within the group, GDIT will be up low single digits and mission systems will be slightly down less than 0.5%. Operating margins are expected to decrease about 40 basis points to 9.2%. We continue to see long-term single-digit growth from the group and continued industry-leading margins.

在技​​術領域，預計 2025 年收入將達到 135 億美元。在該組內，GDIT 將上漲個位數，而任務系統將略微下降，不到 0.5%。預計營業利益率將下降約40個基點至9.2%。我們繼續看到該集團保持長期個位數成長和持續領先業界的利潤率。

So for 2025 company-wide, we expect to see revenue of approximately $50.3 billion, an increase of around 5.5%. We anticipate margin of 10.3%, up 20 basis points from 2024. All of this rolls up to a EPS forecast around $14.80 with a reasonable range of $14.75 to $14.85. None of this contemplates or includes the use of capital for share repurchases.

因此，我們預計 2025 年全公司營收將達到約 503 億美元，成長約 5.5%。我們預期利潤率為 10.3%，比 2024 年上升 20 個基點。所有這些加起來每股收益預測約為 14.80 美元，合理範圍為 14.75 美元至 14.85 美元。所有這些都沒有考慮或包括使用資本回購股票。

On a quarter basis, if one were to assume an average of $3.70 per quarter, the first quarter would be off $0.20, the second quarter of $0.40, the third quarter right on the number and the fourth, up $0.60.

按季度計算，如果假設平均每季 3.70 美元，那麼第一季將減少 0.20 美元，第二季減少 0.40 美元，第三季正好是這個數字，第四季則增加 0.60 美元。

To wrap up, as we go into 2025, we feel very good about our business and the prospects for the year. We also have some very good opportunities across the business to improve operating margins that experienced some additional growth. Simply, we need to execute, and we will be laser-focused on operations. Nicole, back to you.

總而言之，當我們進入 2025 年時，我們對我們的業務和今年的前景感到非常樂觀。我們在整個業務中也有一些非常好的機會來提高經歷了一些額外成長的營業利潤率。簡單來說，我們需要執行，並且我們將全神貫注於營運。妮可，回到你身邊。

Thanks, Phebe. (Event Instructions) Operator, could you please remind participants how to enter the queue?

謝謝，菲比。(活動指引) 接線員，請您提醒參加者如何進入隊列嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Ronald Epstein, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）美國銀行羅納德·愛潑斯坦 (Ronald Epstein)。

You can you hear me okay. Yes, perfect. So just maybe following up on the G700 stuff, I would imagine to get a bunch of questions on this. Is there any impact on the CERT and delivery of G800? And do you get any compensation from the suppliers on the delay because I would imagine it frustrated some customers?

你聽得到我說話嗎？是的，完美。因此，也許只是跟進 G700 的事情，我猜想會對此產生一系列疑問。這對 G800 的 CERT 和交付有影響嗎？我認為延遲會讓一些客戶感到失望，所以你們從供應商那裡得到任何補償了嗎？

So taking the inverse order. Some of -- we have worked out with our suppliers some consideration and -- but not anything that I think is too material. But let's talk about the 800. So we expect the 800 certification sometime in the first half. And -- and we think we have worked our way through the most significant problems on the 7 -- that we experienced on the 700.

因此採取相反的順序。我們已經與供應商進行了一些考慮，但我認為沒有什麼是太重要的。但是讓我們來談談800。因此我們預計 800 認證將在上半年某個時候獲得。並且——我們認為我們已經解決了 7 上遇到的最重大問題——我們在 700 上遇到的問題。

Remember the commonality of part almost identical between the 800 and the 700. So we think the learning that we achieved on the 700 will be very advantageous on the 800. And our objective here is to deliver a fewer -- of expectations to deliver fewer 800s. So think of -- than we did 700. So think about it this way.

記住 800 和 700 之間的部分共通性幾乎相同。因此我們認為，在 700 考試中取得的學習成果將對 800 考試非常有利。我們的目標是實現更少的 800 個預期目標。所以想想——我們做了 700。所以請這樣想。

For 2025, we're thinking about a combination of G650s and 800s, it's about equal to give or take, a few airplanes, the number of G650s we delivered. So we think a lot of the challenges are behind us.

到 2025 年，我們考慮將 G650 和 800 進行組合，大約相當於我們交付的 G650 的數量（幾架飛機）。因此我們認為很多挑戰已經過去了。

Got it. Got it. And if I can, just one quick follow-on. Yesterday, there was a lot of turbulence in terms of army contracts. I mean just contracts were turned off, they were turned back on at the end of the day. How do you guys think about running your business in an environment where it's kind of this volatile?

知道了。知道了。如果可以的話，我只想快速跟進。昨天，軍隊合約方面出現了很大的動盪。我的意思是，合約剛剛被取消，然後在一天結束時重新生效。你們如何看待在這種不穩定的環境中經營業務？

Well, I think it's a good lesson not to react to rumors and to react to implemented reality when it happens. So there's a lot furling, and we have to see how all of that plays out and manifest itself in defense actions and defense program. But I think that was a good teaching example for those outside the typical kind of Washington furl.

嗯，我認為這是一個很好的教訓，不要對謠言做出反應，而是對現實做出反應。因此，有很多事情要做，我們必須看看這一切將如何發揮作用，並體現在防禦行動和防禦計劃中。但我認為這對那些不了解典型華盛頓捲風的人來說是一個很好的教學範例。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德（Doug Harned），伯恩斯坦。

On combat. It's been -- the demand has been very strong and particularly on the munitions side. Can you comment a little bit about how you're seeing the trajectory you had on vehicles both US and international?

在戰鬥中。需求一直非常強勁，特別是在彈藥方面。您能否稍微評論一下您如何看待美國和國際車輛的發展軌跡？

So our vehicle demand continues pretty strongly, both nationally and within the US. We're executing on new programs, we're continuing to execute on our existing programs. That's true for both wheels and track vehicles internationally and again, in the US and FMS continues to be a fairly significant driver of demand, again, both on the wheels and the tracked combat vehicle side.

因此，無論是在全國範圍內還是在美國境內，我們的汽車需求持續強勁。我們正在執行新的計劃，同時也持續執行現有的計劃。這對於國際上的輪式和履帶式車輛都是如此，在美國，FMS 繼續成為需求的相當重要的驅動力，無論是在輪式還是履帶式戰車方面。

So I will note that the Stryker program in '25 was underfunded, and we -- we'll work with the customer and [hill] to get a more rational funding profile. (multiple speakers) Go ahead.

因此，我要指出的是，25 年的 Stryker 專案資金不足，我們將與客戶和 [hill] 合作，以獲得更合理的資金狀況。（多位發言者）請講。

And then on marine, you talked about some additional funding, certainly for Columbia class. There's been money coming in for infrastructure. But when trying to resolve the issues there that you face around supply chain, inflation costs. When the Navy provides more money, does the responsibility then go to you to resolve a very complex infrastructure problem? Or are there things that the Navy should be doing more to address both, I would say, both the inflation issues and the whole broad supply chain?

然後關於海軍，您談到了一些額外的資金，當然是用於哥倫比亞號的資金。已經有資金流入基礎建設。但是當您試圖解決供應鏈中面臨的問題時，通貨膨脹成本就會增加。當海軍提供更多資金時，解決非常複雜的基礎設施問題的責任是否就落到了你們頭上？或者海軍應該做更多的事情來解決通貨膨脹問題和整個供應鏈問題？

So look, let's first get a predicate correct. Our infrastructure is not the issue. We have a very robust mature and advanced infrastructure. The issue has been within the industrial supply chain. And as you quite rightly note, inflation has been a major determinant of some of these fact of life changes that impacted the entirety of the industrial base and driven price increases.

那麼看，我們先得到一個正確的謂詞。我們的基礎設施不是問題。我們擁有非常強大、成熟和先進的基礎設施。這問題存在於工業供應鏈內部。正如您所正確指出的，通貨膨脹是影響整個工業基礎並推動價格上漲的一些現實變化的主要決定因素。

We also had demographic changes. We had a generation of workers retired greater numbers and sooner than we had anticipated being replaced by a demographic age cohort that is a little less, and significantly less in terms of numbers.

我們的人口結構也發生了變化。我們這一代工人的退休人數比我們預期的要多，而且提前退休，取而代之的是人數略少、甚至明顯少得多的人口年齡群體。

That said, we've worked through that. About a decade ago, we started training programs within the marine group. And -- 12 years ago. And those programs are increasingly mature, and we've been able to get the workers that we've needed.

話雖如此，我們已經解決了這個問題。大約十年前，我們開始在海洋集團內進行培訓計畫。而且——12年前。這些項目日益成熟，我們已經能夠獲得我們所需的工人。

So the Navy has been -- and the Congress have been quite proactive in getting funding out to the industrial base to help stabilize. And in fact, we've seen some improvement in some areas in missile tubes and castings. You've seen a nice improvement in their ability to deliver on time quality products that still needs to permeate the entirety of the industrial base, where we have continued to see delays and quality escape, all of which cost and drive cost at GE.

因此，海軍和國會一直積極主動地向工業基礎提供資金以幫助穩定局勢。事實上，我們已經看到飛彈發射管和鑄件在某些方面有所改進。您已經看到他們按時交付優質產品的能力有了很大的提高，而這仍然需要滲透到整個工業基礎，我們仍然看到延誤和品質下降，所有這些都會增加並增加通用電氣的成本。

So I think the Navy has done quite a bit in addressing the industrial-based challenges. The CR funding helps address the cost challenges on the FY24 boats and the funds the FY25 boats as well as some selected productivity improvement. So that's a help. There still remains a hole in the budget, driven by the fact of life changes that was not addressed and needs to be addressed going forward. So I hope that helps you.

所以我認為海軍在應對工業挑戰方面已經做了很多工作。CR 資金有助於解決 FY24 船隻的成本挑戰，並為 FY25 船隻以及一些選定的生產力改進提供資金。這很有幫助。預算中仍然存在缺口，這是由於生活變化的事實尚未解決，需要在未來解決。我希望這對你有幫助。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納（Gautam Khanna），TD Cowen。

I was wondering if you could talk about the mechanics of how the [saws] funding actually gets to General Dynamics? Does it I'm just like is it applied to the boats that are under negotiation now?

我想知道您是否可以談一談[Saws]資金實際上是如何流向通用動力公司的？這是否適用於現在正在談判的船隻？

Well, let's back up a minute. I don't mean to interrupt you, but -- there are no specific contracting actions in effect. And what you refer to was one of those under consideration by the previous administration. It is not in effect.

好吧，讓我們回顧一下。我並不是想打斷你，但是──目前還沒有具體的簽約行動生效。您所提到的也是上屆政府正在考慮的議題之一。它沒有生效。

What you see now are two things. One, the CR funding that, as I noted in my remarks, addresses the Virginia class and Colombia. And then you have industrial based funding that's been going on for some time that goes right into the industrial base. So those are two different elements. Does that help?

你現在看到的是兩件事。第一，CR 資金，正如我在發言中提到的，用於解決弗吉尼亞級和哥倫比亞問題。然後你就會有持續了一段時間的工業融資，這些融資直接進入工業基礎。所以這是兩個不同的元素。這樣有幫助嗎？

It does. And on the latter, I'm curious, how does that actually flow to General Dynamics. What is the mechanism for that money --

是的。對於後者，我很好奇，這實際上是如何影響通用動力的。這些錢的機制是什麼--

Industrial-based funding goes into the industrial base, not into GD other than we may execute contracts with respect to that for the Navy. So there's a distinction between the shipyard and the industrial base, if that helps.

工業資金將投入工業基礎，而不是國防工業，除非我們可以為海軍簽訂與此相關的合約。因此，如果有幫助的話，造船廠和工業基地之間是有區別的。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。

Phebe I assume the margins on Lot 1 and 2 for G700 were quite a bit lower than what you had originally expected given everything you --

Phebe，我估計 G700 的 1 號和 2 號批次的利潤比你最初預期的要低很多，因為你--

Yes, we've been pretty clear about that.

是的，我們對此已經非常清楚了。

Right. And so in that context, I was wondering if you could perhaps update us on the margin step-ups for Lots 3 and 4 and whether it's still the 600 basis points? I think you talked about a few quarters ago.

正確的。因此，在這種情況下，我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹第 3 批和第 4 批的保證金上漲情況，以及是否仍然是 600 個基點？我想您幾個季度前就討論過這個問題。

Yes, it is and there's room for improvement beyond Lot 3.

是的，而且第 3 號地段以外還有改進的空間。

Okay. And then can you go into a bit more detail on what drove the margin strength at aerospace this quarter, particularly given the challenges you outlined in your prepared remarks?

好的。然後，您能否更詳細地介紹本季航空航太利潤率強勁的因素，特別是考慮到您在準備好的發言中概述的挑戰？

Well, the aerospace group is quite a large group. And there are always, in any given quarter, a lot of moving parts. The extent to which service the mix of service and timing on service special missions, how much gasoline we pump. These are -- this is a very large group. So there's lots of margins -- margin issue -- or margin factors and drivers in any given quarter.

嗯，航空航太集團是一個相當大的集團。並且，在任何特定季度中，總是存在著許多活動部件。服務特殊任務的服務組合和時間安排的程度，我們泵送了多少汽油。這是一個非常龐大的群體。因此，在任何一個季度，都存在著大量的利潤率問題，或者說利潤率因素和驅動因素。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe a big picture question, just given the new administration, and we touched upon it a little bit, but all your segments hit on it with marine and DOGE within technology and even tariffs within aerospace. So I was wondering if you could just maybe touch upon each of it and how you think about the trajectory and any changes in profitability in your franchises?

考慮到新政府的成立，這也許是一個大問題，我們也稍微談到了這個問題，但你們所有的部門都談到了這個問題，包括海洋、技術領域的 DOGE，甚至航空航天領域的關稅。所以我想知道您是否可以簡單談談每一個方面，以及您如何看待您的特許經營的發展軌跡和盈利能力的變化？

So I think with any change in administration, there is always new direction, and we will address changes here this time in the same way that we have in other instances, and that's to maintain our agility. And what does agility really mean? It means accurate and quick decision-making in the moment.

因此，我認為政府的任何變化總會有新的方向，這次我們將以與其他情況相同的方式來應對變化，那就是保持我們的靈活性。那麼敏捷的真正意義是什麼？意思是即時做出準確、快速的決策。

With respect to the DOGE, I think any actions that improve the efficiency and cost structure of organizations is a good thing and we would embrace that. And I think as we think through the threat -- as you all know, I've argued for a long time that defense spending is threat-driven, and the threat has, if anything, increased. And so we will work with our customer on a going-forward basis and ensure that we're meeting their demand for goods and material and services in those areas where they think it's the greatest threat. I think that most of our programs are very well positioned for the modern fight. So we look forward to going forward and I think we're in a pretty good position.

關於 DOGE，我認為任何能夠改善組織效率和成本結構的措施都是一件好事，我們會接受這一點。我認為，當我們思考威脅時——正如你們所知，我長期以來一直認為國防開支是由威脅驅動的，而且威脅如果有的話，那就是增加了。因此，我們將與客戶繼續合作，確保滿足他們認為威脅最大的地區對商品、材料和服務的需求。我認為我們的大多數計劃都非常適合現代戰鬥。因此，我們期待著向前邁進，我認為我們目前處於非常有利的地位。

Maybe if I could just follow up on marine profitability. Any sort of quantification you could provide on just the floor, just given the supply chain has consistently lagged even though you've been up to par?

也許我可以跟進海洋獲利能力。雖然你們已經達到標準，但供應鏈卻一直落後，你們能提供任何關於實際水準的量化數據嗎？

I think that we've seen, as I said, some stabilization. We need a ways to go. The money that the Navy has been pumping into the industrial base will help over time. I think the CR will certainly help in the moment, but we need additional funding to -- in order to execute the program of record. That's been pretty well documented by the Navy and the Congress, frankly. So we'll continue to manage our margin performance as best we can.

我認為，正如我所說，我們已經看到了一些穩定性。我們還需要走一段路。海軍投入工業基地的資金將會隨著時間的推移有所幫助。我認為 CR 目前肯定會有所幫助，但我們需要額外的資金來執行記錄計劃。坦白說，海軍和國會已經對此進行了詳細的記錄。因此，我們將繼續盡力管理我們的利潤表現。

We have a number of -- as you well know, we've talked about before, a number of issues that drive our costs and drive them up. And to the extent that we have reduced costs and improved productivity will continue to do so. We've done a pretty good job there, but not enough to offset the cost impact. We're going to continue to manage those costs and drive down and improve our productivity as well.

正如你們所知，我們之前已經討論過一些問題，這些問題導致了我們的成本增加。並且，我們將會繼續降低成本、提高生產力。我們在這方面做得很好，但還不足以抵銷成本影響。我們將繼續管理這些成本並降低和提高我們的生產力。

So all of that, again, will go help offset and cover some of the cost increases that may yet occur. We've factored into the -- into our thinking known risks, but it's the unknown unknowns that are always out there. And as I say, over time, we should see some real stabilization within the supply chain, but it's going to take a bit of time.

因此，所有這些將再次有助於抵消和彌補可能發生的部分成本增加。我們已經將已知風險考慮在內，但未知的未知因素始終存在。正如我所說，隨著時間的推移，我們應該會看到供應鏈中出現真正的穩定，但這需要一些時間。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks for the color on the deliveries on the 700. I'm curious, though, it seems like those causes are the same as what we talked about in the third quarter. So just from a trajectory perspective, what was evolving in the fourth quarter that you're now feeling much more comfortable to just progressing?

感謝您對 700 的交付給予如此高的評價。不過，我很好奇，這些原因似乎與我們在第三季談到的原因相同。那麼僅從軌蹟的角度來看，第四季度發生了哪些發展，讓您現在感覺更放心地繼續前進？

Yes. I think one of the things that we did in the -- that we didn't identify in the third quarter was the induction of the airplanes into delivery or into completions without the engines. That was a significant factor. And the implications of that didn't become clear until a bit later. But some of this is learning. In retrospect, you might have done something a little different. But on a going-forward basis, we've got a lot of that behind us. And we'll -- from a production point of view or in regular order on the completion side, we're getting there, but we're just not there yet. But we're getting there. And by the way, we factored all that thinking into our '25 guidance.

是的。我認為我們在第三季度所做的事情之一是——我們在第三季度沒有確定的——在沒有發動機的情況下開始交付或完成飛機。這是一個重要因素。但直到後來，其意義才逐漸清晰。但其中有些是學習。回想起來，你也許會做一些不同的事情。但從長遠來看，我們已經取得了很大進展。而且從生產的角度，或者從完成方面的常規角度來看，我們正在接近目標，但還沒有到達。但我們正在到達那個目標。順便說一句，我們將所有這些想法都考慮進了我們的25年指引中。

Yes. I was going to have a follow-up there. So I think originally, you intended 50 deliveries of the 700 in 2025. And obviously, it doesn't sound like you've changed -- excuse me, in 2024. It doesn't sound like you changed the manufacturing side of the house. And so I guess talking to Nicole's comment on working capital per share, I was expecting a little bit of working capital relief at aerospace. I guess I should take it that there was a buildup of EB and OTS that more than offset it. Is that correct, Nicole?

是的。我原本要去那裡跟進。所以我認為，您最初打算在 2025 年交付 700 架飛機中的 50 架。顯然，聽起來你並沒有改變——對不起，是在 2024 年。聽起來你並沒有改變房子的製造面。因此，我想，在談到妮可對每股營運資本的評論時，我預計航空航天業的營運資本會有所減輕。我想我應該認為 EB 和 OTS 的累積足以抵消它。對嗎，妮可？

So we had some -- and not to pick nits, but Kim is our CFO, but --

所以我們有一些——並不是要挑剔，但 Kim 是我們的首席財務官，但是--

(laughter) Oh my god. I'm so sorry.

（笑聲）天哪。我很抱歉。

(laughter) I'm sure she takes no offense on that. In fact, you can call any of us any of our names, and we'll respond accordingly.

（笑聲）我相信她不會介意的。事實上，你可以用任何名字稱呼我們當中的任何人，我們都會做出相應的回應。

But yeah, we'll continue to have a little bit of working capital buildup at Gulfstream, as -- remember, we've got the 800 and the 400 in their certification process and then that will begin to unwind at the end of '25, maybe a little bit earlier. And then a little bit of working capital increases, as Kim noted in combat and at electric. But again, [defend a tie] some of those contracts, and that will begin to unwind.

但是的，我們將繼續在灣流公司累積一些營運資金，因為 - 記住，我們已經進行了 800 和 400 的認證過程，然後將在 25 年底開始解除，也許會更早一點。然後營運資本稍微增加一點，正如 Kim 在戰鬥和電氣中所指出的那樣。但是，再說一遍，[保衛平局]其中一些合同，這些合同將開始解除。

Scott Mikus, Melius Research.

米庫斯（Scott Mikus），Melius Research。

Phebe quick question on the inflation pressures, particularly at marine. Of the bids that you submitted for fixed-price contracts at all your defense businesses over the past couple of years, what percentage of those included EPA causes or some sort of language to protect future inflationary pressures?

Phebe 很快就提出了關於通貨膨脹壓力的問題，特別是海運方面的通貨膨脹壓力。過去幾年，你們為所有國防業務提交的固定價格合約投標中，有多少比例包含了環保署的原因或某種旨在保護未來通膨壓力的語言？

Well, all of our -- just with respect to the marine group, all of our contracts have always included EPA clauses. It's just that the level of inflation was not contemplated. The growth in inflation was not contemplated at the time these contracts were signed. And frankly, I think when you fund defense at a 1% increase and inflation is considerably higher, that's a real decrease. So you're likely to see some of those pressures.

嗯，就海洋集團而言，我們所有的合約都包含 EPA 條款。只是沒有考慮到通貨膨脹的程度。簽署這些合約時並沒有考慮到通貨膨脹的成長。坦白說，我認為，當國防經費以 1% 的增幅增加，而通貨膨脹率卻高得多時，這才是真正的下降。所以你很可能會看到一些這樣的壓力。

But we had contract protection, not just sufficient, to cover the significant cost increases, which on some material was 37%. So these are real fact of life changes that have challenged the -- challenge the out years and they need to be addressed.

但我們有合約保護，但不足以彌補大幅增加的成本，某些材料的成本上漲了 37%。所以，這些都是現實生活中的變化，對未來幾年提出了挑戰，需要解決。

Okay. And then thinking about aerospace, I think in August, there was an announcement that Gulfstream is going to spend $370 million for a new plant in Mexicali. So I'm just wondering, are you considering ramping up some of your material purchases or production that happens in Mexico or Canada to preempt any potential tariffs?

好的。然後說到航空航天，我記得八月有消息稱灣流公司將斥資 3.7 億美元在墨西卡利建立新工廠。所以我只是想知道，您是否考慮增加在墨西哥或加拿大的一些材料採購或生產，以避免任何潛在的關稅？

So look, we'll deal with that when it comes and how it comes. But we have long-term plans in place. We're heavily in the United States, as you well know, in our manufacturing facilities. But we will deal with any of the impacts of governmental policy as they occur as we always have.

所以你看，我們會在問題出現時，考慮如何處理它。但我們已經制定了長期計劃。眾所周知，我們的生產基地主要在美國。但我們會像往常一樣應對政府政策產生的任何影響。

Seth Seifman, J.P. Morgan.

摩根大通的塞思‧塞夫曼 (Seth Seifman)。

I wanted to ask about aerospace. The prior sort of long-term outlook was for up to about 170 deliveries. Do we think about the 150 this year? How much of that is sort of due to supply constraint and the waiting for certification of the G800? And how do you think about the path from here?

我想問一下有關航空航天的問題。先前的長期預測是最多交付 170 架飛機。我們考慮今年達到 150 嗎？其中有多少是由於供應限制和等待 G800 認證造成的？您認為今後的路徑是怎樣的？

And kind of likewise, on margins, there was an expectation to be at least in the mid-teens or higher? Is there any way to kind of quantify the extra cost, the supply chain challenges that are dragging on this year and kind of how those can go away?

同樣地，就利潤率而言，預計至少會達到十五六成甚至更高？有沒有辦法量化額外成本、拖延今年的供應鏈挑戰、如何解決這些問題？

Well, we can certainly quantify the cost, and I think those have been reflected in our margin performance. We have the capacity to build more but our planning needs to be prudent and needs to reflect the reality of the supply chain.

嗯，我們當然可以量化成本，我認為這些已經反映在我們的利潤表現上。我們有能力建造更多的建築，但我們的規劃需要審慎，並需要反映供應鏈的現實。

And we've taken, as I noted in my remarks, a bit more of a conservative approach this year to deliveries. So we better match supply chain cadence, which the cadence is pretty good. We just need to continue to monitor for quality escapes which drive both time and cost at Gulfstream, because we have more inspectors and more QA inspectors and more tests folks on the floor as well as flyaway teams. So until we get improvement in that area, I think we have planned accordingly.

正如我在演講中提到的，我們今年在交付方面採取了更保守的態度。所以我們更好地匹配供應鏈節奏，這個節奏非常好。我們只需要繼續監控品質漏洞，因為這會增加灣流公司的時間和成本，因為我們在現場和飛行團隊中擁有更多的檢查員、更多的品質保證檢查員和更多的測試人員。因此，直到我們在該領域取得進展之前，我認為我們已經制定了相應的計劃。

Margins will build, and build nicely at aerospace. We've talked about that over the years and all the reasons for that, the commonality of parts, the new manufacturing facilities, our use of AI and digital engineering in our manufacturing and production facilities. So I'm very confident that we will drive margin performance going forward.

利潤率將會上升，而且在航空航太業將會大幅上升。多年來，我們一直在討論這個問題以及其所有原因，包括零件的通用性、新的製造設施、我們在製造和生產設施中使用人工智慧和數位工程。因此，我非常有信心我們將在未來提高利潤率。

Okay. And then just in technologies, the year -- what's driving the year-on-year margin pressure?

好的。那麼從技術領域來看，今年——是什麼推動了利潤率同比壓力的增加？

So two things. The growth -- so think about it this way. Mission systems is going to stay relatively flat this year as it finishes its transition from legacy programs to new programs and the growth will be at GDIT. So GDIT's businesses tend to carry a little lower margins. Plus we have a mix shift at GDIT with some mature programs retiring and some newer programs coming online. So it's nothing really about a timing and mix issue. It signifies nothing other than that.

所以有兩件事。增長——請這樣思考。任務系統今年將保持相對平穩，因為它將完成從傳統專案向新專案的過渡，並且成長將集中在 GDIT。因此，GDIT 的業務利潤率往往較低。此外，我們在 GDIT 有一個混合班次，一些成熟的項目退出市場，一些較新的項目上線。因此這實際上與時間和混合問題無關。它除此以外沒有別的含義。

David Strauss, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的戴維·施特勞斯（David Strauss）。

What is the book-to-bill assumption for aerospace embedded within your comments around working capital for the year?

在您對今年營運資本的評論中，航空航太的訂單出貨比假設是什麼？

We have a 1:1 book-to-bill, is our assumption going forward.

我們的訂單出貨比是1：1，這是我們未來的假設。

Okay. And then if you could just clarify the comment on the 650 versus the 800. I wasn't exactly clear what you were seeing there in terms of deliveries. Do you -- how many 650 do you actually have left to deliver at this point?

好的。然後，如果您可以澄清一下關於 650 與 800 的評論的話。我不太清楚你在那裡看到了怎樣的交付情況。您現在實際上還剩下多少個 650 要交付嗎？

I don't have the exact number, but we're done by midyear. So the comment, what I was trying to say is the combination of the 800 and the 650, you remember the 800 is a replacement for the 650, the combination of those two platforms will equal about the 650 deliveries this year, give or take, a few airplanes.

我沒有確切的數字，但我們在年中就完成了。所以我想說的是 800 和 650 的組合，你記得 800 是 650 的替代品，這兩個平台的組合將相當於今年 650 的交付量，或多或少，幾架飛機。

And then last one, the 400 timeline on [sir there], and are you including any 400 deliveries in your 150 forecast for this year?

然後最後一個問題，[先生] 的 400 個時間表，您是否在今年的 150 個預測中包括了任何 400 個交付？

No, we're not. And the 400 will come, obviously, after the 800 as you well know, as I said before, I'm not sticking my finger into the light socket. And with any detail on when we're getting -- when we're getting certification that's beyond our control. But both programs are going very nicely.

不，我們不是。顯然，400 會在 800 之後出現，正如你們所知道的，就像我之前說的，我不會把手指伸進電燈插座裡。關於我們何時獲得認證的任何細節都超出了我們的控制範圍。但這兩個項目都進展得很順利。

So Julian, I think we have time for one more question.

朱利安，我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特‧斯托拉德 (Robert Stallard)，垂直研究。

Phebe, a couple of quick ones on combat. First of all, with the new US administration, do you think there are going to be some more flexibility on allowing exports to various parts of the world?

菲比，關於戰鬥，我來快速說幾句。首先，您認為美國新政府上台後，全球出口的政策會更有彈性嗎？

And then secondly, with regard to Europe, are you seeing any impact from the local political desire to buy more equipment locally?

其次，就歐洲而言，您是否看到當地政治意願在當地購買更多設備產生影響？

Well remember, our business is domiciled in Europe. So we haven't really seen any changes in European buying habits. We have, over the last few years, as you all know, an increase in spending. And I think the -- certainly, our expectations are that increases.

請記住，我們的業務位於歐洲。因此我們實際上並沒有看到歐洲人購買習慣的任何改變。眾所周知，過去幾年我們的支出有所增加。而且我認為——當然，我們的預期是會增加的。

And your first question was about exports. Can you -- your line is a little rough. Can you say that -- repeat that first part again?

您的第一個問題是關於出口的。你能嗎——你的線條有點粗糙。你能再說一次第一部分嗎？

Yes, sure. It's with regard to other parts of the world. Is this new US administration maybe more flexible in allowing or even encouraging exports to other parts of the world?

是的，當然。它與世界其他地區有關。美國新政府是否會更有彈性地允許甚至鼓勵向世界其他地區出口？

Well, I think that this income -- this administration has been quite clear that it intends to export, and we're certainly able and willing to support that and have in the past. So we'll look forward to that.

嗯，我認為這筆收入——本屆政府已經明確表示了其出口意圖，我們當然有能力並且願意支持這一點，過去我們也這樣做了。所以我們對此充滿期待。

So thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. As a reminder, please refer to the General Dynamics website for the fourth quarter earnings release and highlights presentation. If you have additional questions, I can be reached at 703-876-3152. Thank you.

所以感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。提醒一下，請參閱通用動力網站上的第四季財報和重點介紹。如果您還有其他問題，可以撥打我的電話：703-876-3152。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。