通用動力 (GD) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the General Dynamics First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加通用動力 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

And I would now like to turn the conference over to Nicole Shelton, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Nicole Shelton。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the General Dynamics First Quarter 2024 Conference Call. Any forward-looking statements made today represent our estimates regarding the company's outlook. These estimates are subject to some risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。歡迎參加通用動力 2024 年第一季電話會議。今天發表的任何前瞻性陳述均代表我們對公司前景的估計。這些估計存在一些風險和不確定性。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊包含在該公司的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中。

We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see the slides that accompany this webcast, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website, investorrelations.gd.com.

我們也將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非 GAAP 衡量標準的其他揭露，包括與可比較 GAAP 衡量標準的調節，請參閱本網路廣播隨附的幻燈片，這些幻燈片可在我們網站 Investorrelations.gd.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。

On the call today are Phebe Novakovic, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Kim Kuryea, Chief Financial Officer.

今天參加電話會議的是我們的董事長兼執行長 Phebe Novakovic；和財務長 Kim Kuryea。

I will now turn the call over to Phebe.

我現在會把電話轉給菲比。

Thank you, Nicole. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for being with us. As you can discern from our press release, we reported earnings of $2.88 per diluted share on revenue of $10.7 billion, operating earnings of $1.036 billion and net earnings of $799 million. These results compare quite favorably to the year ago quarter. Revenue is up 8.6% against the first quarter last year. Operating earnings are up 10.4%. Net earnings are up 9.5%. As a result, earnings per diluted share up $0.24, or 9.1% more than the year ago quarter. The operating margin for the entire company was 9.7%, a 20 basis point improvement over the year ago quarter.

謝謝你，妮可。大家早安，感謝您和我們在一起。正如您從我們的新聞稿中可以看到的那樣，我們公佈的稀釋後每股收益為 2.88 美元，收入為 107 億美元，營業利潤為 10.36 億美元，淨利潤為 7.99 億美元。這些結果與去年同期相比相當有利。營收較去年第一季成長 8.6%。營業利益成長 10.4%。淨利潤成長 9.5%。因此，稀釋後每股收益成長 0.24 美元，比去年同期成長 9.1%。整個公司的營業利潤率為 9.7%，比去年同期提高了 20 個基點。

Overall, these numbers represent a very strong quarter and a good start to 2024. However, we fell below our own expectations for the quarter and below analyst consensus, which is predicated at least in part on our forecast. The rather obvious explanation is that we forecast 15 to 17 G700 deliveries in the quarter, which did not happen.

總體而言，這些數字代表了一個非常強勁的季度，也是2024 年的良好開端。 。相當明顯的解釋是，我們預計本季將交付 15 至 17 架 G700，但這並沒有發生。

We received FAA certification for the G700 at the very end of the quarter, too late to make any G700 deliveries. This obviously impacted revenue and earnings in the Aerospace group in the quarter. The good news is that we now have certification, and the delay in deliveries does not change our outlook for the year. Gulfstream still plans to deliver 50 to 52 G700s this year. So our Aerospace forecast for the year remains unchanged. I'll give you a little more color on this later in my remarks. Another good news, as you can see, was strong performance across the defense portfolio. In short, we performed very well in the quarter over those things within our control.

我們在本季末獲得了 G700 的 FAA 認證，但為時已晚，無法交付任何 G700。這顯然影響了航空航太集團本季的營收和收益。好消息是我們現在已經獲得了認證，並且交付的延遲不會改變我們對今年的展望。灣流今年仍計劃交付 50 至 52 架 G700。因此，我們今年的航空航太預測保持不變。我將在稍後的發言中對此進行更多闡述。正如您所看到的，另一個好消息是整個國防產品組合的強勁表現。簡而言之，我們在本季度在我們控制範圍內的事情上表現得非常好。

At this point, let me ask Kim Kuryea, our CFO, to provide details on our order activity, solid backlog and cash activity before I come back with segment observations.

在這一點上，讓我請我們的首席財務官 Kim Kuryea 提供有關我們的訂單活動、可靠積壓訂單和現金活動的詳細信息，然後再提供細分市場觀察。

Thank you, Phebe, and good morning. I'll start with orders and backlog. We had a solid quarter from an orders perspective with an overall book-to-bill ratio of 1:1 for the company. Order activity was particularly strong in the Combat Systems group with a book-to-bill of 1.6:1 and in the Aerospace and Technologies segment, which each had a book-to-bill of 1.2:1. We ended the quarter with total backlog of $93.7 billion, up slightly from year-end and up 4% from a year ago. Our total estimated contract value, which includes options and IDIQ contracts, ended the quarter at approximately $134 billion, up 1.5% from year-end.

謝謝你，菲比，早安。我將從訂單和積壓訂單開始。從訂單角度來看，我們這個季度表現穩健，公司的整體訂單出貨比為 1:1。作戰系統部門的訂單活動尤其強勁，訂單與出貨比為 1.6:1，航空航太與技術部門的訂單與出貨比均為 1.2:1。截至本季末，我們的積壓訂單總額為 937 億美元，比年底略有增加，比去年同期成長 4%。我們估計的合約總價值（包括選擇權和 IDIQ 合約）截至本季約為 1,340 億美元，比去年年底成長 1.5%。

Turning to our cash performance for the quarter. We had an expected slow start to the year, absent the delayed certification and entry into service of the G700 and continued G700 inventory build.

轉向我們本季的現金表現。由於 G700 的認證和投入服務延遲以及 G700 庫存的持續增加，預計今年開局會緩慢。

So let's start with Technologies. We continue to see strong cash performance from that group in the quarter. As anticipated, Combat Systems and Marine Systems both built working capital in the quarter based on their unique mix of contract timing versus expected payments.

讓我們從技術開始。我們繼續看到該集團在本季的強勁現金表現。正如預期的那樣，作戰系統和海洋系統都根據其獨特的合約時間與預期付款組合在本季度建立了營運資金。

Finally, moving to Aerospace. The lack of G700 deliveries drove us to use cash in the quarter. As a result, our free cash flow for the quarter was a negative $437 million. Since all of what I described is timing related, we still have an expectation for the year of a cash conversion rate around 100%. We expect most of the negative free cash flow to reverse in the second quarter, followed by substantially improving free cash flow in each of the third and fourth quarters.

最後，轉向航空航天。 G700 交付不足促使我們在本季使用現金。因此，本季我們的自由現金流為負 4.37 億美元。由於我所描述的所有內容都與時間相關，因此我們仍然預計今年的現金轉換率約為 100%。我們預計大部分負自由現金流將在第二季扭轉，隨後第三季和第四季自由現金流將大幅改善。

Now to discuss our capital deployment activities. Capital expenditures were $159 million, or 1.5% of sales in the quarter. Similar to last year, you should expect capital expenditures to increase in subsequent quarters throughout the year, as we anticipate spending between 2% and 2.5% of revenue on CapEx this year. Over 50% of that expected spend will be for infrastructure at our 3 shipyards as we continue to invest to support the Navy submarine and shipbuilding plan.

現在討論我們的資本部署活動。資本支出為 1.59 億美元，佔本季銷售額的 1.5%。與去年類似，您應該預期全年後續幾季的資本支出將會增加，因為我們預計今年資本支出將佔收入的 2% 至 2.5%。隨著我們繼續投資支援海軍潛艇和造船計劃，超過 50% 的預期支出將用於我們 3 個造船廠的基礎設施。

Also in the quarter, we paid $361 million in dividends and repurchased approximately 390,000 shares of stock for $105 million at just under $269 per share. When you add it all up, we ended the quarter with a cash balance of around $1 billion and a net debt position of $8.2 billion. Our net interest expense in the quarter was $82 million compared with $91 million for the same quarter last year. The reduction in interest expense was attributed to our lower debt balances.

同樣在本季度，我們支付了 3.61 億美元的股息，並以每股略低於 269 美元的價格回購了約 39 萬股股票，價格為 1.05 億美元。當你把所有這些加起來時，我們本季末的現金餘額約為 10 億美元，淨債務部位為 82 億美元。本季我們的淨利息支出為 8,200 萬美元，而去年同期為 9,100 萬美元。利息支出的減少歸因於我們的債務餘額較低。

Finally, turning to income taxes. We had a 17.5% effective tax rate in the quarter, right in line with our full year guidance, which reflects higher taxes on foreign earnings.

最後，轉向所得稅。本季我們的有效稅率為 17.5%，與我們的全年指引一致，這反映了對海外收入的較高稅收。

Phebe, that concludes my remarks. I'll turn it back over to you.

菲比，我的發言到此結束。我會把它還給你。

Thanks, Kim. Now let me review the quarter in the context of the business segments and provide detailed color as appropriate. First, Aerospace. Aerospace did very well in the absence of the G700 delivery. It had revenue of $2.1 billion and operating earnings of $255 million with a 12.2% operating margin. Revenue is $192 million more than last year's first quarter, a 10.1% increase.

謝謝，金。現在讓我在業務部門的背景下回顧本季度，並酌情提供詳細的顏色。首先，航空航天。在沒有 G700 交付的情況下，航空航天表現非常出色。其營收為 21 億美元，營業利潤為 2.55 億美元，營業利益率為 12.2%。營收比去年第一季增加 1.92 億美元，成長 10.1%。

To give you a little detail here, the increase was driven by an increase in new aircraft deliveries and an increase in services at both Gulfstream and Jet Aviation, partially offset by significantly lower special mission aircraft activity, which is always lumpy. The 24 deliveries in the quarter are fewer than planned but 3 more than the year ago quarter. The mix in the quarter favored large cabin and the 650 in particular, which helped both revenue and earnings. Operating earnings of $255 million are up $26 million over last year's first quarter, an 11.4% increase. Earnings on both new aircraft and aircraft services enjoyed good increases, offset in part by lower earnings on special mission, higher G&A and net R&D.

在此向您提供一些細節，這一增長是由新飛機交付量的增加以及灣流和捷特航空的服務增加所推動的，但部分被特殊任務飛機活動的大幅減少所抵消，而特殊任務飛機的活動總是不穩定。本季交貨量為 24 架，比計劃少，但比去年同期多 3 架。本季的混合機型有利於大客艙，尤其是 650，這對收入和利潤都有幫助。營業利潤為 2.55 億美元，比去年第一季增加 2,600 萬美元，增幅為 11.4%。新飛機和飛機服務的收益均實現了良好成長，但部分被特殊任務收益的下降、一般行政管理費用和淨研發的增加所抵消。

While Gulfstream will continue to experience part shortages that cause significant out-of-station work, which is inherently less efficient, the supply chain is clearly improving and much more predictable. As is now apparent, we plan to deliver a considerable number of G700s in 2024, the first 20 to be delivered or fully built, and deliveries have begun. By the end of this month, the next 7 to 8 will be ready. We plan to deliver these 50 to 52 planes over the quarters in relatively even numbers, with improving margins quarter-over-quarter as we go along. The first one, what we call the lot 1, carries some cost and retrofit burden that will not affect subsequent aircraft deliveries. So expect margins in the second quarter to be similar to the first quarter with significant improvement in Q3 and Q4.

雖然灣流將繼續面臨零件短缺的問題，導致大量的站外工作，這本質上效率較低，但供應鏈顯然正在改善，並且更加可預測。現在很明顯，我們計劃在 2024 年交付相當數量的 G700，其中前 20 架已交付或完全建造，並且已經開始交付。到本月底，接下來的7到8個將準備就緒。我們計劃在每個季度以相對均勻的數量交付 50 至 52 架飛機，並隨著進展逐季提高利潤率。第一個，我們稱之為批次 1，承擔一些成本和改造負擔，不會影響後續飛機的交付。因此，預計第二季的利潤率將與第一季相似，第三季和第四季將顯著改善。

Aerospace had a decent quarter from an orders perspective with a book-to-bill of 1.2:1 in dollar terms. Sales activity and customer interest is evident this quarter, but concerns over persistent inflation and monetary policy in the U.S., together with concerns about conflict in the Middle East, has slowed the consummation of transactions to some degree. It is also worth noting that a significant portion of the demand we see is fleet replenishment for corporations. These multi-aircraft deals usually proceed at a slower pace.

從訂單角度來看，航空航太季度表現不錯，以美元計算訂單出貨比為 1.2:1。本季銷售活動和客戶興趣顯而易見，但對美國持續通膨和貨幣政策的擔憂，以及對中東衝突的擔憂，在一定程度上減緩了交易的完成。另外值得注意的是，我們看到的需求很大一部分是企業的船隊補充。這些多飛機交易通常進展較慢。

The G800 flight test and certification program continues to progress well. The aircraft design, manufacturing and the overall program are very mature. We continue to target certification of G800 for 9 months after the G700 certification, although I'm increasingly reluctant to give estimates about these things that are ultimately out of our control. In short, the Aerospace team had a good quarter. G700 FAA certification is in the rearview mirror, and we hope EASA certification is hard on its heels. And we expect nicely improving margins, particularly in the second half.

G800試飛和取證計畫繼續順利推進。飛機設計、製造和整體方案都非常成熟。在 G700 認證後的 9 個月內，我們繼續以 G800 認證為目標，儘管我越來越不願意對這些最終超出我們控制範圍的事情做出估計。簡而言之，航空航天團隊度過了一個不錯的季度。 G700 FAA 認證已成為過去，我們希望 EASA 認證能夠緊隨其後。我們預計利潤率將大幅提高，尤其是在下半年。

Next, Combat Systems. Combat had revenue of $2.1 billion, up almost 20% over the year ago quarter. Earnings of $282 million are up 15.1%. Margins at 13.4% are down 60 basis points over the year ago quarter. It is interesting to observe that this very strong increase in revenue is in comparison to last year's first quarter, which enjoyed a 5% increase over '22.

接下來，戰鬥系統。 Combat 的營收為 21 億美元，比去年同期成長近 20%。獲利 2.82 億美元，成長 15.1%。利潤率為 13.4%，比去年同期下降 60 個基點。有趣的是，與去年第一季相比，營收成長非常強勁，去年第一季比 2020 年第一季成長了 5%。

We saw increased revenue performance in each of the 3 businesses. The increase came from higher volume on new international tank programs, higher artillery program volume and higher volume on PIRANHA's programs and bridges. We also experienced very strong order performance. Orders in the quarter drove total backlog to $15.6 billion, up $1.5 billion from this time in the year ago quarter.

我們看到這 3 項業務的收入均有所成長。這一增長來自於新的國際坦克項目數量的增加、火砲項目數量的增加以及食人魚項目和橋樑項目數量的增加。我們的訂單表現也非常強勁。本季的訂單使積壓總額達到 156 億美元，比去年同期增加了 15 億美元。

Demand for Combat Systems and products continues to increase, particularly in Europe and in some lines of business in the U.S. Orders for wheeled and tracked combat vehicles are up significantly, reflecting the heightened threat environment. In addition to several new combat vehicle starts, demand for Abrams also continues. We've seen tank orders from new users, and a number of countries will be introducing Abrams into their combat fleets for the first time.

對作戰系統和產品的需求持續成長，特別是在歐洲和美國的某些業務領域。除了幾款新戰車的投產外，對艾布拉姆斯的需求也持續成長。我們已經看到了新用戶的坦克訂單，許多國家將首次將艾布拉姆斯引入其作戰艦隊。

Since Q1 last year, we have received almost $1 billion in orders from both U.S. allies through FMS and the U.S. Army. In the U.S., we are rapidly increasing ammunition production with the opening of our Texas facility, which will increase current 155-millimeter ammo capacity by 83%. As the year goes on, we will continue to work with our Army customer to further increase ammo capacity to meet their requirements.

自去年第一季以來，我們已透過 FMS 和美國陸軍從美國盟友那裡收到了近 10 億美元的訂單。在美國，隨著德州工廠的開業，我們正在迅速增加彈藥產量，這將使目前的 155 毫米彈藥產能增加 83%。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續與陸軍客戶合作，進一步增加彈藥容量以滿足他們的需求。

Turning to Marine Systems. Once again, our shipbuilding units are demonstrating impressive revenue growth. Let me repeat the recent history that I gave you last year at this time with respect to growth in this decade. The first quarter of 2020 was up 9.1% against Q1 of 2019; Q1 '21 was up 10.6% over Q1 '20; Q1 '22 was up 6.8% over Q1 '21; and Q1 '23 was up 12.9% over Q1 '22. Finally, this quarter at $3.3 billion is up 11.3% over Q1 '23.

轉向海洋系統。我們的造船部門再次展現出令人印象深刻的收入成長。讓我重複去年這個時候我向大家介紹的有關這十年成長的近期歷史。 2020年第一季較2019年第一季成長9.1%； 21 年第一季較 20 年第一季成長 10.6%； 22 年第一季較 21 年第一季成長 6.8%； 23 年第一季比 22 年第一季成長 12.9%。最後，本季的銷售額為 33 億美元，比 2023 年第一季成長 11.3%。

This is an impressive growth ramp by any standard. However, growth ramps of this character bring with them supply chain and operation issues that are challenging. This particular quarter's growth was almost exclusively Columbia-class construction.

無論以何種標準衡量，這都是令人印象深刻的成長。然而，這種特徵的成長帶來了具有挑戰性的供應鏈和營運問題。這一季度的成長幾乎完全來自哥倫比亞級建築。

Operating earnings are $232 million in the quarter, up 10% from the year ago quarter. Operating margin is basically the same as last year's quarter. We anticipate that this will improve as we progress through the year.

該季度營業利潤為 2.32 億美元，比去年同期成長 10%。營業利潤率與去年季度基本持平。我們預計，隨著今年的進展，這種情況將會有所改善。

As we have talked about in previous calls, the story at the marine group is efficiently managing the growth propelled by the U.S. Navy's need for ships, particularly submarines. As a labor-intensive heavy manufacturing industry, the shipbuilding industrial base was hit hard by the demographic impacts of COVID. This, coupled with a number of sole-source suppliers of highly complex components, has made it difficult for the industrial base to keep pace with increasing demand.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中談到的那樣，海軍陸戰隊的故事正在有效地管理美國海軍對船舶（特別是潛艇）的需求所推動的增長。作為勞力密集的重製造業，造船工業基地受到新冠疫情人口影響的嚴重打擊。再加上許多高度複雜組件的獨家供應商，使得工業基礎難以跟上不斷增長的需求。

The significant financial investments we have made in our shipyards over the last 12 years, particularly at Electric Boat, has mitigated the impact on us, but we are still hit by schedule and quality problems in the supply chain. Our job is to minimize the efficiency and schedule impacts of late material by increasing our throughput. And we are doing that each and every quarter. In Q1 alone, our productivity increased 11%, but there is more to do. Finally, the Navy's investment in the supply chain has helped and will continue to help as we move forward.

過去 12 年，我們對造船廠（尤其是電船廠）進行了大量財務投資，減輕了對我們的影響，但我們仍然受到供應鏈中的進度和品質問題的影響。我們的工作是透過提高吞吐量來最大限度地減少遲到材料對效率和進度的影響。我們每季都會這樣做。光是第一季度，我們的生產力就提高了 11%，但還有更多工作要做。最後，海軍對供應鏈的投資已經並將繼續幫助我們前進。

For Technologies, we're off to a solid start. Revenue in the quarter of $3.2 billion is down less than 1% from the prior year but up 2% over the fourth quarter of last year, and modestly ahead of our expectation to the start of the year. Operating earnings of $295 million are consistent with last year, yielding a margin of 9.2%. As we have previously discussed, margins will continue to be driven by the mix of IT service activity and hardware volumes.

對於技術而言，我們已經有了一個好的開始。本季營收為 32 億美元，比去年同期下降不到 1%，但比去年第四季成長 2%，略高於我們年初的預期。營業利潤為 2.95 億美元，與去年持平，利潤率為 9.2%。正如我們之前所討論的，利潤率將繼續受到 IT 服務活動和硬體數量的共同推動。

The group received $4 billion in orders during the quarter for a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2:1. Both businesses experienced strong order activity, in GDIT's case, the highest book-to-bill since mid-2019. This led to a total backlog of $13.5 billion, an increase of over 5% from a year ago and total estimated contract value of $42.7 billion.

該集團在本季收到了 40 億美元的訂單，訂單出貨比為 1.2:1。兩家公司都經歷了強勁的訂單活動，就 GDIT 而言，訂單出貨量達到了 2019 年中期以來的最高水準。這導致未完成訂單總額達 135 億美元，較去年同期成長超過 5%，預計合約總價值達 427 億美元。

The story in Technologies is one of steady growth, particularly at GDIT and increasingly at Mission Systems as they transition from legacy programs to new programs and faster-growth lines of business. Both businesses have robust pipelines driven by their respective investments in different technologies. The group's continued focus on margin performance will result in sequential margin expansion throughout the year as they continue to build their backlog and grow.

《技術》的故事是一個穩定成長的故事，特別是在 GDIT 和 Mission Systems，因為它們從遺留專案過渡到新專案和成長更快的業務線。兩家公司都擁有由各自對不同技術的投資所驅動的強大管道。隨著積壓訂單的不斷增加和增長，該集團對利潤率表現的持續關注將導致全年利潤率連續擴張。

As you know, we never update guidance at this time of year. Apart from what I have already said about Aerospace, I will stick to that custom. We do, however, confirm the guidance we gave you at the end of last quarter, and we'll update it at midpoint of the year, as we typically do.

如您所知，我們從不在每年的這個時候更新指南。除了我已經說過的關於航空航天的內容之外，我將堅持這個習慣。不過，我們確實確認了上季末給您的指導，並將像往常一樣在今年年中進行更新。

This concludes my remarks with respect to what was, in many respects, a rewarding quarter. Let me now turn the call back to Nicole to take your questions.

我對這個在許多方面都是有益的季度的評論到此結束。現在讓我把電話轉回給妮可，回答你的問題。

Thank you, Phebe. (Operator Instructions) Operator, could you please remind participants how to enter the queue?

謝謝你，菲比。 （接線生指示）接線員，請您提醒與會者如何排隊？

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。

Kim, can you clarify the G700 delivery expectation for the second quarter? Is it the 20 that are ready to go plus the 7 to 8 that will be ready at the end of this month?

Kim，您能透露一下G700第二季的交付預期嗎？是準備好的20個加上本月底準備好的7到8個嗎？

So let me kind of tackle that. I alluded to it in my opening statement. But we're -- we have 50 to 52 airplanes that are going to deliver in about equal amounts of the 700 in the second through the fourth quarters. So think about it that way. So I think that will help you.

那麼讓我來解決這個問題。我在開場白中提到了這一點。但我們有 50 到 52 架飛機，第二季到第四季的交付量將與 700 架飛機的交付量大致相同。所以這樣想吧。所以我認為這對你有幫助。

Okay. And then, Phebe, I was hoping you could spend a moment maybe talking about the growth that Combat Systems is currently seeing in Europe and perhaps how you expect that to trend over the coming quarters.

好的。然後，Phebe，我希望您能花點時間談談 Combat Systems 目前在歐洲的成長情況，以及您對未來幾季的趨勢的預期。

So the growth in Europe is clearly driven by the threat environment. We've seen increases in orders for combat, wheeled and tracked vehicles and significant bridge orders. We're also seeing increased orders coming out of various countries in Europe for Abrams through the FMS process. So we see that demand signal continuing until the threat environment, frankly, improves.

因此，歐洲的成長顯然是由威脅環境所驅動的。我們看到戰鬥車輛、輪式和履帶式車輛的訂單以及重要的橋樑訂單增加。我們也看到，透過 FMS 流程，來自歐洲各國的艾布拉姆斯訂單增加。因此，坦白說，我們看到需求訊號持續存在，直到威脅環境有所改善。

We will take our next question from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通的 Seth Seifman 提出的下一個問題。

Looking to marine. When we think about the expectation for the profit margin for the year and kind of where we started, are there kind of visible milestones that you see through the remainder of the year that bring that number higher? Or kind of is it a change in mix? Or kind of what drives the underlying margin improvement through the year?

展望海洋。當我們考慮對今年利潤率的預期以及我們的起點時，您在今年剩餘時間內是否看到了一些明顯的里程碑，使該數字更高？或者說是混合上的改變？或者是什麼推動了全年潛在利潤率的改善？

So two things. One is the increase in productivity at each of the shipyards, and we see that and we've been seeing that for the last few quarters. And it's also fewer disruptions from the supply chain. So those are the two primary factors.

所以有兩件事。一是每個造船廠生產力的提高，我們看到了這一點，並且在過去幾季我們一直看到這一點。而且供應鏈的干擾也更少。這是兩個主要因素。

Right. Okay, okay. Great. And then just when we think about -- I think you mentioned some of the headwinds to demand at Gulfstream from here in terms of monetary policy, geopolitical issues. Just to kind of affirm the expectation for 160 deliveries this year and the way that the backlog will trend through the year, the expectation is that, that's a very sustainable number with potential for that to grow in the years beyond.

正確的。好吧好吧。偉大的。然後，當我們思考時，我認為您提到了灣流在貨幣政策和地緣政治問題方面的需求面臨的一些阻力。只是為了確認今年交付 160 架的預期以及全年積壓的趨勢，我們的預期是，這是一個非常可持續的數字，並且有可能在未來幾年內增長。

So let me clarify a bit. I don't see concerns about inflation or monetary policy impacting demand. It really is just impacting the time from the initiation of a potential interest to the closure of an order, which is also impacted somewhat by large fleet -- airplane fleet orders from corporate customers. So think about it that way, more of a timing issue with the completion of the deals and not a headwind to overall demand. So I think that's an important nuance. And we're still sticking to our delivery guidance for the year. And I think on a going-forward basis, as we've intimated before, we see that those deliveries increasing over time.

讓我澄清一下。我不認為通膨或貨幣政策會影響需求。它實際上只是影響從潛在興趣開始到訂單結束的時間，這也在一定程度上受到大型機隊（企業客戶的飛機機隊訂單）的影響。因此，以這種方式思考，更多的是交易完成的時間問題，而不是整體需求的阻力。所以我認為這是一個重要的細微差別。我們仍然堅持今年的交付指導。我認為，在未來的基礎上，正如我們之前所暗示的，我們看到這些交付量隨著時間的推移而增加。

And we will take our next question from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

我們將回答垂直研究的羅伯特·斯塔拉德（Robert Stallard）提出的下一個問題。

Phebe, I was wondering if you could comment on the recently passed or soon to be signed supplemental and what implications that could have for the combat business, but also on the submarine side, what sort of additional funding could come from the U.S. Navy?

菲比，我想知道您是否可以對最近通過或即將簽署的補充協議發表評論，以及這可能對作戰業務產生什麼影響，而且在潛艇方面，美國海軍可能會提供什麼樣的額外資金？

So let me take them in the inverse order. On the submarine side, the preponderance of the funding in the supplemental is to help stabilize the industrial base, ensuring that we continue to drive order activity on a consistent and repeatable basis. So that is really on the submarine side. In combat, I think you can see there's a fair amount of ammo funding, and we had fully anticipated that.

那麼讓我以相反的順序來看待它們。在潛艇方面，補充資金的主要目的是幫助穩定工業基礎，確保我們繼續在一致和可重複的基礎上推動訂單活動。所以這確實是在潛水艇方面。在戰鬥中，我想你可以看到有相當數量的彈藥資金，我們完全預料到了這一點。

Okay. And then just secondly, I was wondering if you could give us an update on the AJAX program in the U.K.

好的。其次，我想知道您能否向我們介紹英國 AJAX 計劃的最新情況。

So it is proceeding extremely well through test, continue to work with that customer, but they are very pleased with the performance of the vehicle.

因此，測試進展非常順利，並繼續與該客戶合作，但他們對車輛的性能非常滿意。

And we will take our next question from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們將回答 Sheila Kahyaoglu 和 Jefferies 提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to ask one about Aerospace, and I'm sorry for putting you on the spot with the mental math. But last year -- or last quarter, you talked about the G700 profit contribution being around 25%. So when we think about the Q1 performance, it was actually really good relative to our number of 12.1% margin. It would imply you see a deceleration in the underlying business for Aerospace just given G700 comes in at 50 units. So I guess, how do we think about the mix movement throughout the year for Aerospace?

我想問一個關於航空航天的問題，很抱歉讓你因為心算而陷入困境。但去年，或者說上個季度，您談到 G700 的利潤貢獻約為 25%。因此，當我們考慮第一季的表現時，相對於我們 12.1% 的利潤率來說，它實際上非常好。這意味著鑑於 G700 的銷量為 50 台，您會發現航空航太的基礎業務正在減速。所以我想，我們如何看待航空航太全年的混合運動？

Well, let's talk about the first predicate in that question. I don't believe we've ever disclosed any margin on a particular airplane, and we haven't there. I think we can't -- it can't take and discern revenue and earnings in any given quarter as attributable to one airplane. So I think you need to think about it holistically.

好吧，我們來談談該問題中的第一個謂詞。我不認為我們曾經披露過某架飛機的任何利潤，而且我們也沒有這樣做過。我認為我們不能——它不能將任何給定季度的收入和收益歸因於一架飛機。所以我覺得你需要全面考慮一下。

But we see the -- we don't see any real changes in the mix throughout the year. And we'll do a detailed bottom-up review in Q2. But for right now, we're sticking with both our mix, our earnings, our margin and revenue expectations. So we're off to a pretty good start, I'd say. And we're very encouraged at how the outlook looks for the rest of the year.

但我們看到——我們全年沒有看到任何真正的變化。我們將在第二季度進行詳細的自下而上的審查。但目前，我們堅持我們的組合、獲利、利潤率和收入預期。所以我想說，我們有了一個很好的開始。我們對今年剩餘時間的前景感到非常鼓舞。

Can we assume that G700 is accretive to the 15% full year guidance?

我們可以假設 G700 會增加 15% 的全年指引嗎？

So think about it this way. This is ultimately going to be a very profitable program. But as I explained in my remarks, the first lot of 20 or so carries with it additional cost. We'll see those in -- largely in Q2. So think about Q2 as an increase in revenue of about $1 billion to $1.1 billion and in earnings of about $100 million to $110 million, and then progress nicely thereafter. And again, that's all impacted by the multiplicity of factors in our Aerospace business that drive margins.

所以這樣想吧。這最終將是一個非常有利可圖的計劃。但正如我在發言中所解釋的，第一批 20 件左右需要額外費用。我們將在很大程度上在第二季度看到這些。因此，可以將第二季視為營收增加約 10 億美元至 11 億美元，獲利增加約 1 億美元至 1.1 億美元，然後再取得良好進展。再說一次，這一切都受到我們航空航太業務中推動利潤率的多種因素的影響。

And we will take our next question from David Strauss with Barclays.

我們將回答巴克萊銀行大衛‧史特勞斯提出的下一個問題。

Phebe, so Rob's question on the supplemental and the submarine industrial base money, so there's money there. There's a lot of money in the base budget, it appears. You're spending additional CapEx today that you'll eventually recover through working capital, profit. How does -- I mean, it's a lot of money. I mean how does that manifest itself in your numbers as we think about over the next couple of years?

菲比，羅布關於補充資金和潛艇工業基礎資金的問題，所以那裡有錢。看來基本預算有很多錢。您今天花費了額外的資本支出，最終將透過營運資金和利潤來收回。我的意思是，這是很多錢。我的意思是，當我們考慮未來幾年時，這會如何在你們的數字中反映出來？

So for the supply chain support, it has minimal impact on us. It's, however, extremely important because the stabilization of the supply chain is critical to the resumption of full cadence on Virginia and the increased cadence on Columbia.

所以對於供應鏈的支持來說，對我們的影響是最小的。然而，這極為重要，因為供應鏈的穩定對於維吉尼亞號的全面恢復和哥倫比亞號的增加節奏至關重要。

So funding is also robust for submarines. We've got one we projected in '25. And then it would be extremely helpful to get a full ship set of Virginias also appropriated because that, again, helps stabilize the industrial base with repeatable revenue that they can plan around.

因此，潛水艇的資金投入也很充足。我們計劃在 25 年實現這一目標。然後，獲得一整套弗吉尼亞艦也將非常有幫助，因為這再次有助於穩定工業基礎，並提供他們可以規劃的可重複收入。

Okay. Last quarter, you made some more kind of positive comments regarding the potential for share repurchase to step up. Obviously, you did a little bit this quarter, but not that much. How are you thinking about that now? Did that have to do with the fact that you ended up burning cash in Q1? Just how you're thinking about share repo and the balance sheet from here.

好的。上個季度，您對加大股票回購潛力發表了一些更積極的評論。顯然，本季度你做了一些工作，但沒有那麼多。現在想得怎麼樣？這是否與您在第一季燒錢有關？這正是您對股票回購和資產負債表的看法。

So the way we think about share repurchases, and this will be true going forward, is really in the regular order. Recall what we were facing in Q1. And that was we're looking down the throat of a potential, and at some point looked very likely, government shutdown. And so I think that prudence and conservatism in the face of that kind of uncertainty is really key. But the cash performance for the remainder of the year is going to be very strong, and we will act accordingly.

因此，我們對股票回購的思考方式確實符合常規順序，未來也是如此。回想一下我們在第一季面臨的情況。那就是我們正在尋找潛在的、在某些時候看起來很有可能的政府關閉的可能性。因此，我認為面對這種不確定性，謹慎保守確實是關鍵。但今年剩餘時間的現金表現將非常強勁，我們將採取相應行動。

And we will take our next question from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答高盛的諾亞·波波納克提出的下一個問題。

Phebe, what's the framework for the pace of G700 deliveries beyond this year compared to this year? Not asking for quarterly numbers or anything like that, but just given this year's had some abnormalities compared to a recurring airplane. And then, Kim, just what's the updated view on free cash flow to net income conversion for the year?

Phebe，與今年相比，今年以後 G700 的交付速度框架是怎麼樣的？不要求提供季度數據或類似的數據，但只是考慮到今年的數據與經常出現的飛機相比有一些異常。那麼，Kim，今年自由現金流與淨利轉換的最新觀點是什麼？

Well, so let me talk about 700. We never, except I think, on 1 or 2 occasions about 5, 6 years ago, give the future year expectations. But 700 is a very, very successful program, and it will continue to execute well.

好吧，讓我談談 700。 除了我認為，我們從來沒有在 5、6 年前的一兩次場合給出過對未來一年的期望。但700是一個非常非常成功的計劃，並且它將繼續良好地執行。

I'll turn it over to Kim on cash.

我會把它用現金交給金。

On cash. Thank you, Phebe. So with respect to cash and the expectation, we still anticipate achieving about 100% of free cash flow conversion in 2024. We had expected the first quarter to be negative even before considering the fact that we didn't deliver any G700. So we had planned for a negative free cash flow in the first quarter, and that was mostly driven by some contract timing in the Combat Systems segment and some in the Marine Systems segment. But we expect that most of that negative cash will reverse in the second quarter with a stronger third quarter and then a steeper ramp in the fourth quarter.

現金。謝謝你，菲比。因此，就現金和預期而言，我們仍然預計在 2024 年實現約 100% 的自由現金流轉換。因此，我們計劃在第一季度出現負自由現金流，這主要是由戰鬥系統部門和海洋系統部門的一些合約時間所推動的。但我們預計大部分負現金將在第二季扭轉，第三季將更加強勁，然後第四季將出現更陡峭的成長。

We will take our next question from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

我們將回答沃爾夫研究中心的邁爾斯·沃爾頓提出的下一個問題。

Phebe, could you comment on -- or Kim, could you comment on the margin expansion implied at Combat Systems as you move through the rest of the year? I think it has to be 80 to 100 basis points on average up year-on-year for the rest of the year. And maybe the underlying dynamics of given the volume, why we didn't see more of a drop-through margin in the first quarter?

Phebe，您能否評論一下——或者 Kim，您能否評論一下 Combat Systems 在今年剩餘時間裡暗示的利潤擴張？我認為今年剩餘時間裡，年比平均應該會上漲80到100個基點。也許考慮到交易量的潛在動態，為什麼我們在第一季沒有看到更多的利潤下降？

So what drove margin in the first quarter were two things: mix as we came off of older legacy programs, particularly in the vehicle world and in the U.S. and then -- and began ramping up newer programs, vehicle programs in the U.S.; and then a significant amount of the revenue growth came from facilities investment which, by definition, carries a lower margin than production. So both of those things will reverse throughout the course of the year, and combat margins will increase. Our expectation is quarter-over-quarter. Remember, this is a high operating leverage group. So they ought to do quite well here.

因此，推動第一季利潤率成長的因素有兩點：我們擺脫了較舊的遺留項目，特別是在汽車領域和美國，然後開始增加新項目，即美國的汽車項目；然後，收入成長的很大一部分來自設施投資，根據定義，其利潤率低於生產。因此，這兩件事將在這一年中逆轉，戰鬥力將會增加。我們的預期是季度環比。請記住，這是一個高營運槓桿集團。所以他們應該在這裡表現得很好。

Okay. And one clarification on Gulfstream's backlog, if I could. I think that there were some adjustment downward in the backlog. Were those cancellations or ForEx, maybe 6 large jet cancellations or thereabouts?

好的。如果可以的話，請對灣流的積壓訂單進行澄清。我認為積壓數量有下降。這些取消是外匯取消還是外匯取消，也許是 6 架大型飛機取消或類似的取消？

I don't think that's the way to look at it. But why don't Nicole get back to you on that? But we didn't have any particular notable cancellations. So let us unpack that one with you a little later.

我不認為這是看待問題的方式。但妮可為什麼不回你呢？但我們沒有任何特別值得注意的取消。稍後讓我們與您一起拆開這個包裝。

We will take our next question from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

我們將回答美國銀行羅恩愛潑斯坦的下一個問題。

So Phebe, with the increased demand on munitions and so on and so forth, I mean, what are you doing to mitigate any of the issues that could arise from growth in those markets, just like we've seen in the Navy markets given all the demand and growth? There's been supply chain issues. Are you expecting...

因此，Phebe，隨著對彈藥等需求的增加，我的意思是，您正在採取哪些措施來減輕這些市場成長可能出現的任何問題，就像我們在海軍市場看到的那樣需求和成長？供應鏈出現了問題。你是否期待...

Yes. So in the combat world, it's a little bit more of a robust supply chain in general that we typically have not had difficulty with, typically. We know our priority. The suppliers who could conceivably cause issues, and we've been working with them to ensure that they can manage this growth. But we're pretty comfortable that we can execute the growth. Our focus is really on operations and execution. And those will be the two key drivers of the profitability in that group.

是的。因此，在戰鬥世界中，總的來說，這是一個更強大的供應鏈，我們通常不會遇到困難。我們知道我們的首要任務。那些可能會引起問題的供應商，我們一直在與他們合作，以確保他們能夠應對這種成長。但我們對能夠實現成長感到非常滿意。我們的重點實際上是營運和執行。這些將是該集團盈利能力的兩個關鍵驅動因素。

Got it. Got it. And then maybe back to the kind of the naval side of the house and the supply chain. Could you give us any color on where there are actual weaknesses in the supply chain where investment has to be made?

知道了。知道了。然後也許回到房屋的海軍方面和供應鏈。您能否告訴我們在供應鏈中哪些地方存在需要投資的實際弱點？

So I'd say in the large -- in the single-source, sole-source suppliers who are, by definition, critical. And the Navy has focused quite intensely on those particular products and supply chain items. And I think they've been pretty explicit about where some of that might be. And I think it's best to think about it that way. But we do believe that working with the Navy customer, the continued infusion into that supply chain will help stabilize. But they are the pacing item now for Electric Boat.

所以我想說的是，從整體來看，單一來源、單一來源的供應商，根據定義，是至關重要的。海軍非常關注這些特定的產品和供應鏈項目。我認為他們已經非常明確地說明了其中一些可能的內容。我認為最好這樣考慮。但我們確實相信，與海軍客戶合作，持續注入該供應鏈將有助於穩定。但它們現在是電船的節奏項目。

And we will take our next question from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

我們將回答道格·哈內德和伯恩斯坦提出的下一個問題。

On marine, the Navy recently described some shipbuilding delays really across programs. And the one that really stood out was Columbia-class delays reported on the turbines and the bow. Can you give us a sense of changes you've seen in schedule that affect you kind of across the program base and particularly on Columbia?

在海軍方面，海軍最近描述了一些確實跨項目的造船延遲。真正引人注目的是哥倫比亞級渦輪機和船頭的延誤報告。您能否向我們介紹您在日程安排中看到的變化，這些變化對整個專案基礎（尤其是哥倫比亞大學）產生了影響？

So I think you've articulated what the Navy has said. I will tell you, our throughput and productivity has been strong on Columbia. It enjoys the highest national security priority. So we have done pretty well on Columbia and are increasing our throughput on Columbia. So then it's really those pacing items that are out there. And we're working with our Navy customer to see if there are additional things we can do to recover some schedule and if there are any workarounds. But this is going to be a bit of a slog for the supply chain.

所以我認為你已經闡明了海軍所說的內容。我會告訴你，我們在哥倫比亞的吞吐量和生產力一直都很強。它享有最高的國家安全優先權。因此，我們在哥倫比亞號上做得很好，並且正在增加哥倫比亞號上的吞吐量。那麼其實就是那些節奏項目。我們正在與海軍客戶合作，看看是否可以採取其他措施來恢復某些時間表，以及是否有任何解決方法。但這對於供應鏈來說將是一件有點困難的事情。

And then also on shipbuilding, inflation has affected shipbuilding costs a lot over the last few years. We've seen pricing on new awards go up. And when you look forward in the budget, is there a concern that you're basically, if you're going to -- if the Navy's budget is really going to be able to afford the kinds of inflation increases that may come along with the continued ramp in shipbuilding?

在造船業方面，過去幾年通貨膨脹對造船成本影響很大。我們已經看到新獎項的定價上漲了。當你展望預算時，是否會擔心海軍預算是否真的能夠承受可能伴隨的通貨膨脹增加？

Yes. So I think you've known over the years, I tend not to comment on individual service budgeting. But inflation certainly has been a factor. And to the extent that we can increase throughput to offset some of that, we will. But the Navy is well aware of the inflation impact and I think is working hard with the whole shipbuilding industrial base to adjust some of that.

是的。所以我想你多年來都知道，我傾向於不對個人服務預算發表評論。但通貨膨脹肯定是一個因素。只要我們能夠提高吞吐量來抵消其中的一些影響，我們就會這麼做。但海軍很清楚通貨膨脹的影響，我認為正在與整個造船工業基地努力調整其中一些。

And we will take our next question from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答摩根士丹利克里斯汀·利瓦格 (Kristine Liwag) 提出的下一個問題。

Phebe, following up on the marine question. In addition to the delay in the Columbia class, the DoD did request one less Virginia class for the fiscal year '25 budget request. So I mean, if we take all this into perspective, can you provide some context on what this means for marine revenue growth over the next few years? And does the margin with a 7 handle on it, is that more the new norm for this business?

菲比，跟進海洋問題。除了哥倫比亞級的延遲外，國防部還要求在 25 財年的預算請求中減少一艘維吉尼亞級。所以我的意思是，如果我們全面考慮這一切，您能否提供一些背景信息，說明這對未來幾年的海洋收入增長意味著什麼？帶有 7 的邊距是否是該業務的新規範？

So let me address that in the inverse order. Margins will be improving at our shipyards. We have every expectation all of our shipyards, NASSCO, Bath and Electric Boat. One of the things, as we've talked frequently about, is the margin impact of quality and schedule problems coming out of the supply chain. And as the supply chain stabilizes, that will help as well. And what was your first part of your question?

那麼讓我以相反的順序來解決這個問題。我們造船廠的利潤率將會提高。我們對所有造船廠、NASSCO、巴斯和電船公司抱有期望。正如我們經常談到的，其中一件事是供應鏈中出現的品質和進度問題對利潤的影響。隨著供應鏈的穩定，這也會有所幫助。你問題的第一部分是什麼？

The revenue cadence, including the just one Virginia class for fiscal year '25.

收入節奏，包括 25 財年僅有的一個維吉尼亞州班級。

Yes. Okay. So it has no impact in the short term for Electric Boat because we've got plenty of work in front of us. It could have an impact in the outer years outside of our planning horizon. But critical here is, in fact, the additional ship set of funding. We have long lead material on Virginia. That is very important to the supply chain. And to the extent that we can ensure that we get a full second Virginia ship set so that we're buying it to a year, I think, is very important for the overall health of the industrial -- submarine and industrial base.

是的。好的。因此，短期內這對電動船沒有影響，因為我們面前還有很多工作要做。它可能會對我們規劃範圍之外的外部年份產生影響。但事實上，這裡的關鍵是額外的船舶資金。我們在維吉尼亞州有長期領先的材料。這對於供應鏈來說非常重要。我認為，在某種程度上，我們可以確保獲得完整的第二艘維吉尼亞艦，以便我們將其購買一年，這對於工業潛艇和工業基地的整體健康非常重要。

And we will take our next question from Ken Herbert with RBC.

我們將回答 RBC 肯·赫伯特 (Ken Herbert) 提出的下一個問題。

If we look, Phebe, at your comments around timing in Gulfstream, is it still fair to assume that you should be looking at a book-to-bill at 1 or greater for Gulfstream in '24?

Phebe，如果我們看看您對灣流時間表的評論，是否可以假設您應該在 24 年為灣流考慮 1 或更高的訂單出貨比？

So it's a good planning assumption. It is how we are thinking about our internal planning. But let's see how we do as we start to significantly ramp up production and deliveries. So -- but as I said, that's a good planning assumption.

所以這是一個很好的規劃假設。這就是我們思考內部規劃的方式。但讓我們看看當我們開始大幅提高產量和交付量時我們會做得如何。所以——但正如我所說，這是一個很好的規劃假設。

Okay. Great. And just a clarification for Kim. The comments sound like the free cash flow ramp really sort of accelerates in the second half of the year. But with all the 700 deliveries expected this quarter, free cash flow should be positive in the second quarter, correct?

好的。偉大的。只要向 Kim 澄清一下。這些評論聽起來像是自由現金流量的成長在今年下半年確實有所加速。但鑑於本季預計交付 700 架，第二季自由現金流應該為正，對嗎？

Yes. That's pretty much what you should assume.

是的。這幾乎就是你該假設的。

And we will take our next question from Robert Spingarn with Melius Research.

我們將回答 Melius Research 的 Robert Spingarn 提出的下一個問題。

Phebe, you said recently that with the -- even though the aerospace supply chain is improving, your ramp this year could challenge that improvement. I was wondering if you could elaborate on that a little bit.

Phebe，您最近表示，儘管航空航天供應鏈正在改善，但您今年的產能提升可能會挑戰這種改善。我想知道你是否可以詳細說明一下。

So we still have -- look, it's definitely improving. Quality is improving and schedule reliability is improving. But make no mistake, we still have a lot of out-of-station work. And that impacts the profitability and margin on airplanes that are experiencing that. So we definitely see improvement. We are optimistic that they can keep pace, but it's not without its margin challenges.

所以我們仍然——看，它肯定在進步。品質在提高，進度可靠性也在提高。但別誤會，我們還有很多站外工作。這會影響正在經歷這種情況的飛機的獲利能力和利潤率。所以我們肯定會看到進步。我們樂觀地認為他們能夠跟上步伐，但這並非沒有利潤挑戰。

Okay. And then also, I think you commented you had good bookings in Aerospace in the quarter, reflecting strong demand. But I think you've said the U.S. has been very strong. How is aircraft demand elsewhere in the world?

好的。另外，我認為您評論說本季航空航太領域的預訂量很好，反映出需求強勁。但我認為你說過美國非常強大。世界其他地方的飛機需求如何？

So there's no real change, I think, from the previous quarters, U.S. corporations, private and public, high-net-worth individuals, both U.S. and outside the U.S. So no real changes, no real surprises. Sort of the typical customer base that we see is I think the way you should think about it.

因此，我認為，與前幾季相比，美國企業、私人和公共企業、高淨值個人，無論是美國還是美國境外，都沒有真正的變化，所以沒有真正的變化，沒有真正的驚喜。我認為您應該這樣考慮我們所看到的典型客戶群。

And we will take our next question from Peter Arment with Baird.

我們將回答彼得·阿門特和貝爾德提出的下一個問題。

Phebe, the Army wants to reach 100,000 155 shells by, I think, October 2025. Can you update us on how your ramp is going? You've discussed that, that supply chain is a little more robust.

Phebe，陸軍希望在 2025 年 10 月之前達到 100,000 發 155 砲彈的數量。您已經討論過，供應鏈更加穩健。

Yes. So our ramp there is more about increasing the facilities that we have. And as I noted in my remarks, the opening of our Texas facility, which we worked very, very hard to expedite and frankly did it in almost record time, was very important because it increased the throughput and the productivity of the number of shells by 83%. So we're on track with the Army to get where we need to be, and our objective is to move even faster. And so far, we have been. But the Army has been a critical and extremely important partner here in what is really a national security imperative.

是的。因此，我們的坡道更多的是為了增加我們擁有的設施。正如我在發言中指出的那樣，我們德克薩斯州工廠的開業非常重要，因為它提高了吞吐量和砲彈數量的生產率，我們非常非常努力地加快速度，坦率地說，幾乎在創紀錄的時間內完成了這項任務。因此，我們正與陸軍一起朝著我們需要達到的目標邁進，我們的目標是更快地採取行動。到目前為止，我們一直都是這樣。但在真正的國家安全當務之急中，陸軍一直是至關重要且極為重要的合作夥伴。

Yes. And then just if you could make any comments on the G280 program just given the conflict that's going on in the Middle East.

是的。考慮到中東正在發生的衝突，您能否對 G280 計劃發表任何評論？

So we had anticipated the impacts on the 280 in our guidance too, but I will tell you that they are doing quite well and are slightly ahead of our schedule. We're still sticking to our deliveries, but I think it's notable that they're managing pretty well in this tough environment.

因此，我們在指導中也預期了對 280 的影響，但我會告訴您，他們做得很好，並且稍微提前了我們的計劃。我們仍然堅持交付，但我認為值得注意的是，他們在這個艱難的環境中管理得很好。

We will take our next question from Cai von Rumohr with TD Cowen.

我們將回答 Cai von Rumohr 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

Good quarter.

好季度。

Thanks, Cai.

謝謝，蔡。

So could you update us on the status of the G400? How is it doing? And is it fair to assume that it might have a gap of approximately 12 months between its certification and that of the G800?

能為我們介紹一下 G400 的最新情況嗎？怎麼樣？假設它的認證與 G800 的認證之間可能有大約 12 個月的差距，是否公平？

I think I said last quarter, I'm done predicting process over which we have little control. We've tried in the past to give you indicators of our internal -- or actually, our internal -- our dates. So I'm kind of out of the detailed predicting mode. I will say the program is doing extremely well. And it's -- it will fly in the third quarter, and I think we'll be flying a pretty mature airplane.

我想我上個季度說過，我已經完成了我們幾乎無法控制的過程的預測。我們過去曾嘗試向您提供我們內部（或實際上是我們內部）日期的指標。所以我有點脫離了詳細的預測模式。我想說這個計劃做得非常好。它將在第三季度飛行，我認為我們將駕駛一架相當成熟的飛機。

Excellent. And then your R&D was up a fair amount in the first quarter. Could you give us some color of the pattern of the R&D at Gulfstream this year and looking forward? How should we think about that?

出色的。然後你們的研發在第一季有了相當大的成長。能為我們介紹一下灣流今年的研發模式以及未來的發展嗎？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Well, pretty much steady as she goes, particularly this year. We've got a number of, as you know, programs in the certification process. And so I'd see that at least through this year is pretty consistent. No real surprise this year, steady as she goes.

嗯，她的表現相當穩定，尤其是今年。如您所知，我們在認證過程中有許多計劃。所以我認為至少今年以來情況是相當一致的。今年沒有什麼真正的驚喜，她的表現很穩定。

And we will take our next question from Jason Gursky with Citigroup.

我們將回答花旗集團 Jason Gursky 提出的下一個問題。

Phebe, I wanted to just quickly go back to your comments on Aerospace and what, I guess, you described as an elongation of your sales cycle. Maybe you could just talk a little bit about the overall size of the pipeline and how that is evolving. I understand things are taking longer to close, but I'd also be kind of curious to know whether there are an increasing number of people that are interested.

菲比，我想快速回顧一下您對航空航天的評論，我猜您將其描述為銷售週期的延長。也許您可以簡單談談管道的整體規模及其演變。我知道事情需要更長的時間才能結束，但我也很好奇是否有越來越多的人對此感興趣。

So the pipeline remains robust. And I look to that as encouraging, a good sign. It's been that way for a while. People want our airplanes, and that's driving demand.

因此，管道仍然強勁。我認為這是令人鼓舞的好兆頭。這樣已經有一段時間了。人們想要我們的飛機，這推動了需求。

Okay. Great. So good metrics going on there, it sounds like. Then just really quickly on -- maybe this is a question targeted at Technologies. But I'd love to get some updated thoughts from you on artificial intelligence, AI, the adoption that you're seeing with your customers. How you see this kind of playing out and affecting your business. And then maybe, as I suggest, focused on Technologies.

好的。偉大的。聽起來，那裡的指標非常好。然後很快——也許這是一個針對技術的問題。但我很想從您那裡得到一些關於人工智慧、人工智慧以及您在客戶中看到的採用情況的最新想法。您如何看待這種情況的發生以及對您的業務的影響？然後，也許，正如我所建議的，專注於技術。

Yes. So we have been investing in AI to support our customers, and particularly at GDIT and somewhat at Mission Systems. And I would say that there, we're working closely with our customers. They define what the art of the possible is for them in AI. And as you all know, there are some government -- governance challenges around that. But the more sophisticated we get and our ability to tailor AI solutions, I think the more comfortable our customer becomes and will ultimately drive some increased revenue.

是的。因此，我們一直在投資人工智慧來支援我們的客戶，特別是在 GDIT 和 Mission Systems。我想說的是，我們正在與客戶密切合作。他們定義了人工智慧中的可能性藝術。眾所周知，這方面存在一些政府治理上的挑戰。但我們越成熟，客製化人工智慧解決方案的能力越強，我認為我們的客戶就越舒服，最終會增加一些收入。

I haven't seen too much of that yet because I think the government is not like -- unlike other industries where its adoption is. People are careful, and I think properly so. And I would argue that would be true across the entirety of our business.

我還沒有看到太多這樣的情況，因為我認為政府與採用它的其他行業不同。人們都很小心，我認為這是正確的。我認為這對我們整個業務都是如此。

Our final question today comes from Gavin Parsons with UBS.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的加文·帕森斯。

Phebe, you highlighted the stronger second half Aerospace margins that's a more normal volume and G700 production. Is that more of an appropriate starting point for 2025 than the full year 15%?

Phebe，您強調了下半年航空航太利潤率的強勁表現，即銷售量和 G700 產量更加正常。這是否比全年 15% 更適合作為 2025 年的起點？

Nice try. So look, yes, I think once you get through the first lot, our performance from a margin standpoint will continue to improve. And you'll see that, third quarter will be significantly better than second quarter, and fourth quarter will be even better still. But we will update you on our regular order. We kind of keep our discipline, as you well know, around updating guidance, and I think that, that's appropriate.

不錯的嘗試。所以看，是的，我認為一旦你完成了第一批，從利潤的角度來看，我們的表現將繼續改善。你會發現，第三季將明顯優於第二季度，第四季甚至會更好。但我們會向您通報常規訂單的最新情況。如您所知，我們在更新指南方面保持了紀律，我認為這是適當的。

Yes. I appreciate that detail. And then just in terms of the 100% cash conversion for the year, what's the opportunity to exceed that given last year, you were well above and you built a lot of G700 inventory?

是的。我很欣賞這個細節。然後就今年 100% 現金轉換而言，超越去年的機會是什麼？

I think right now, we're just focused. Given the steep ramp in the second half of the year, we're really focusing on trying to hit that mark at this point in time.

我想現在我們只是專注。考慮到今年下半年的急劇增長，我們現在真正專注於努力達到這一目標。

And we should get there.

我們應該到達那裡。

Great. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. As a reminder, please refer to the General Dynamics website for the first quarter earnings release and highlights presentation. If you have additional questions, I can be reached at (703) 876-3152.

偉大的。好的，謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。請注意，請參閱通用動力網站以了解第一季收益發布和亮點演示。如果您還有其他問題，請致電 (703) 876-3152 與我聯絡。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束，我們感謝你們的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。