通用動力 (GD) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the General Dynamics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Nicole Shelton, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加通用動力公司 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Nicole Shelton。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the General Dynamics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Any forward-looking statements made today represent our estimates regarding the company's outlook. These estimates are subject to some risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。歡迎參加通用動力公司 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天發表的任何前瞻性陳述均代表我們對公司前景的估計。這些估計存在一些風險和不確定性。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊包含在該公司的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中。我們也將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

For additional disclosures about these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see the press release and slides that accompany this webcast, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website, investorrelations.gd.com.

有關這些非GAAP 衡量標準的其他披露信息，包括與可比較GAAP 衡量標準的調節，請參閱本網絡廣播隨附的新聞稿和幻燈片，這些內容可在我們網站Investorrelations.gd.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。

On the call today are Phebe Novakovic, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jason Aiken, Executive Vice President, Technologies and Chief Financial Officer. With the introductions complete, I will turn the call over to Phebe.

今天參加電話會議的是我們的董事長兼執行長 Phebe Novakovic； Jason Aiken，技術執行副總裁兼財務長。介紹完畢後，我會將電話轉給 Phebe。

Thank you, Nicole. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for being with us. Earlier this morning, we reported earnings of $3.64 per diluted share on revenue of $11.668 billion, operating earnings of $1.288 billion and net earnings of $1 billion. Revenue is up $817 million, a strong 7.5% against the fourth quarter last year.

謝謝你，妮可。大家早安，感謝您和我們在一起。今天早些時候，我們報告稀釋後每股收益為 3.64 美元，營收為 116.68 億美元，營業利潤為 12.88 億美元，淨利潤為 10 億美元。營收成長 8.17 億美元，比去年第四季成長 7.5%。

Operating earnings are up $61 million and earnings per share up $0.06 or 1.7%. The year ago quarter had $52 million more of other net income, which helps explain the more modest earnings per share growth. In short, the quarter-over-quarter results compare quite favorably, particularly revenue and operating earnings.

營業利潤成長 6,100 萬美元，每股收益成長 0.06 美元，即 1.7%。與去年同期相比，其他淨利潤增加了 5,200 萬美元，這有助於解釋每股收益成長較為溫和的原因。簡而言之，季度環比業績相當不錯，尤其是收入和營業利潤。

The sequential results are even better. Here, we beat last quarter's revenue by $1.97 billion, a very strong 10.4%, operating earnings by $231 million or 21.9% and net earnings by $169 million or 20.2% and EPS by $0.60, a 19.7% improvement. As we promised that it would be, the final quarter is our strongest for the year in both revenue and earnings. In fact, revenue, earnings per share, operating earnings and net earnings improved quarter over the previous quarter throughout the year. It was a nice steady progression of sequential improvement.

連續的結果甚至更好。在這裡，我們的收入比上季度增加了19.7 億美元，強勁增長了10.4%，營業利潤增加了2.31 億美元，即21.9%，淨利潤增加了1.69 億美元，即20.2%，每股收益增加了0.60 美元，提高了19.7%。正如我們所承諾的那樣，最後一個季度的收入和收益都是我們今年最強勁的。事實上，全年營收、每股收益、營業收益和淨利潤均較上一季改善。這是一個很好的連續改進的穩定進展。

For the full year, we had revenue of $42.3 billion, up 7.3% and operating earnings of $4.25 billion, up 0.8% and earnings per fully diluted share of $12.02, down $0.17, a 1.4% decrease mostly as a result of below-the-line items like other income, which was higher and the tax provision, which was lower in 2022.

全年營收為 423 億美元，成長 7.3%，營業利潤為 42.5 億美元，成長 0.8%，完全稀釋後每股收益為 12.02 美元，下降 0.17 美元，下降 1.4%，主要是由於低於預期的結果2022年其他收入等項目較高，稅金撥備較低。

The fourth quarter in the year are $0.04 and $0.09, respectively, below consensus. It is important to note that consensus (inaudible) during the 2 weeks before this earnings release as the sell side became aware of Gulfstream's deliveries from public sources. This miss was exclusively because the G700 did not certify before year-end. As a result, Gulfstream was enabled to deliver 15 G700 as we and the sell side had anticipated. I will have more to say about this in my segment remarks.

今年第四季的價格分別低於市場預期 0.04 美元和 0.09 美元。值得注意的是，在本財報發布前兩週內，隨著賣方從公共來源了解到灣流的交付情況，達成了共識（聽不清楚）。這次失敗完全是因為 G700 沒有在年底前獲得認證。結果，灣流能夠按照我們和賣方的預期交付 15 架 G700。我將在我的發言中對此進行更多闡述。

While we miss consensus and our own expectations for reasons beyond our control, it should not distract from an otherwise good quarter and year.

儘管由於我們無法控制的原因，我們未能達成共識和我們自己的預期，但這不應分散我們原本良好的季度和年度的注意力。

Let me ask Jason to provide some detail on our strong cash performance for the quarter and the year, overall order activity and backlog and any other items you might like to address.

讓我請 Jason 提供一些有關我們本季度和本年度強勁現金表現、整體訂單活動和積壓訂單以及您可能想要解決的任何其他項目的詳細資訊。

Thank you, Phebe, and good morning. Order activity and backlog were a strong story for us in 2023. We finished the year with total backlog of $93.6 billion, up $2.5 billion over last year. Total estimated contract value, which includes options and IDIQ contracts was nearly $132 billion. In terms of orders, the Aerospace segment led the way with a 1.2:1 book-to-bill ratio in both the fourth quarter and full year, and they ended the year with total backlog of $20.5 billion.

謝謝你，菲比，早安。 2023 年，訂單活動和積壓訂單對我們來說是一個強勁的故事。年底，我們的積壓訂單總額為 936 億美元，比去年增加了 25 億美元。預計合約總價值（包括選擇權和 IDIQ 合約）接近 1,320 億美元。就訂單而言，航空航天部門在第四季度和全年均以 1.2:1 的訂單出貨比領先，年末未訂單總額達 205 億美元。

The Defense segment had a book-to-bill of 0.7x in the fourth quarter and 1:1 for the full year.

國防業務第四季的訂單出貨比為 0.7 倍，全年訂單出貨比為 1:1。

Overall, the company had a book-to-bill of 1.1x for the year, and all 4 segments were 1:1 or better.

總體而言，該公司今年的訂單出貨比為 1.1 倍，所有 4 個細分市場的訂單出貨比均為 1:1 或更好。

Turning to our cash performance. It was another strong quarter with operating cash flow of $1.2 billion, which brings us to $4.7 billion of operating cash flow for the year. As discussed on previous calls, this level of cash flow was achieved on the strength of Gulfstream [waters,] additional payments on Combat Systems international programs and continued strong cash performance in technologies.

轉向我們的現金表現。這是另一個強勁的季度，營運現金流為 12 億美元，這使我們全年的營運現金流達到 47 億美元。如同先前電話會議所討論的，這一水準的現金流是憑藉灣流[水域]的實力、戰鬥系統國際項目的額外付款以及技術方面持續強勁的現金表現而實現的。

After capital expenditures, our free cash flow for the year was $3.8 billion, a cash conversion rate of 115%. This was nicely ahead of our anticipated cash flow for the year, notwithstanding the delayed certification and entry into service of the G700.

扣除資本支出後，我們今年的自由現金流為 38 億美元，現金轉換率為 115%。儘管 G700 的認證和投入使用有所延遲，但這遠遠超出了我們今年預期的現金流。

Looking at capital deployment. Capital expenditures, as I noted on the last call, were higher in the fourth quarter at $304 million, which brings us to $904 million for the full year. The lion's share of these investments are, of course, in our shipyards to support the Navy submarine and shipbuilding plant. At 2.1% of sales, full year capital expenditures were a little lower than our original expectation due to timing. So some of that naturally pushes into next year.

著眼於資本配置。正如我在上次電話會議中指出的那樣，第四季度的資本支出更高，達到 3.04 億美元，這使我們全年的資本支出達到 9.04 億美元。當然，這些投資的最大部分是在我們的造船廠，以支援海軍潛艇和造船廠。由於時機原因，全年資本支出佔銷售額的 2.1%，略低於我們最初的預期。因此，其中一些自然會推遲到明年。

As a result, we expect CapEx to be between 2% and 2.5% of sales next year and closer to 2% thereafter. We also paid $360 million in dividends in the fourth quarter, bringing the full year to $1.4 billion.

因此，我們預計明年的資本支出將佔銷售額的 2% 至 2.5%，此後接近 2%。我們還在第四季支付了 3.6 億美元的股息，使全年股息達到 14 億美元。

There were no shares repurchased in the quarter, so we finished the year with 2 million shares repurchased for $434 million at $215 per share. With respect to our pension plans, we contributed $106 million in 2023, which included a modest voluntary contribution to one of our commercial plans, and we expect to contribute approximately $75 million in 2024.

本季沒有回購股票，因此我們以每股 215 美元的價格回購了 200 萬股股票，回購金額為 4.34 億美元。就我們的退休金計劃而言，我們在 2023 年繳款了 1.06 億美元，其中包括對我們的一項商業計劃的少量自願繳款，我們預計在 2024 年將繳款約 7500 萬美元。

After all this, we ended the year with a cash balance of $1.9 billion and a net debt position of $7.3 billion, down approximately $1.9 billion, more than 20% from last year. We have $500 million of debt maturing in 2024.

經過這一切，我們年底的現金餘額為 19 億美元，淨債務部位為 73 億美元，減少了約 19 億美元，比去年減少了 20% 以上。我們有 5 億美元的債務將於 2024 年到期。

Our net interest expense in the fourth quarter was $78 million, bringing interest expense for the full year to $343 million. That compares to $85 million and $364 million in the respective 2022 periods. We expect interest expense in 2024 to continue to decrease to around $320 million.

第四季的淨利息支出為 7,800 萬美元，全年利息支出達到 3.43 億美元。相較之下，2022 年同期的銷售額為 8,500 萬美元和 3.64 億美元。我們預計 2024 年利息支出將繼續下降至 3.2 億美元左右。

Turning to income taxes. We had an 18.1% effective tax rate in the fourth quarter, which brings our full year rate to 16.8%, slightly below, but generally in line with our guidance.

轉向所得稅。第四季我們的有效稅率為 18.1%，這使我們的全年稅率達到 16.8%，略低，但總體符合我們的指導。

Looking ahead to 2024, we expect the full year effective tax rate to increase to around 17.5%, reflecting higher taxes on foreign earnings.

展望 2024 年，我們預計全年有效稅率將增至 17.5% 左右，反映出海外所得稅率的提高。

That concludes this portion of my remarks, and I'll turn it back over to Phebe for segment comments.

我的這部分發言到此結束，我將把它轉回 Phebe 以供分段評論。

Thanks, Jason. First, Aerospace. The story on Aerospace has found in sequential and year-over-year improvement, continuing strong demand for Gulfstream aircraft, the overall strength of Gulfstream service business and the continuing growth of Jet Aviation. In the quarter, Aerospace had revenue of $2.74 billion and earnings of $449 million. This represents a 12% increase in revenue and a 33% increase in earnings on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

謝謝，傑森。首先，航空航天。航空航太的故事體現了連續和同比的改善、對灣流飛機的持續強勁需求、灣流服務業務的整體實力以及噴氣航空的持續增長。該季度，航空航太公司營收為 27.4 億美元，獲利為 4.49 億美元。這意味著收入環比增長 12%，盈利環比增長 33%。

The sequential numbers are even stronger with a 35% increase in revenue coupled with a staggering 68% increase in operating earnings. The important point here is the dramatic increase in the delivery of in-service airplanes in the quarter, 39 versus 27 in the third quarter of 2023. A strong mix favoring large aircraft, strong pricing in the backlog, better overhead absorption and improved supply chain response, leading to less out of station work, all contributed to a 16.4% margin in the quarter.

連續的數字更加強勁，收入成長了 35%，營業利潤成長了驚人的 68%。這裡重要的一點是，本季在役飛機的交付量大幅增加，從2023 年第三季的27 架增至39 架。大型飛機的強勁組合、積壓飛機的強勁定價、更好的管理費用吸收和改善的供應鏈反應，導致站外工作減少，所有這些都促成了本季 16.4% 的利潤率。

For the full year, revenue of $8.62 billion is up only $54 million from the prior year and operating earnings of $1.18 billion improved by $52 million on a 50 basis point improvement in operating margin.

全年收入為 86.2 億美元，僅比上年增加 5,400 萬美元，營業利潤為 11.8 億美元，增加了 5,200 萬美元，營業利潤率提高了 50 個基點。

Nevertheless, Aerospace revenue and earnings are less than we anticipated for the quarter and the year because as I mentioned earlier, we did not receive the certification of the G700 in the fourth quarter and did not deliver 15 aircraft we had ready to go. That deprived us to slightly over $1 billion of revenue and close to $250 million in earnings. These, of course, are orders of magnitude figures.

儘管如此，航空航太本季和全年的收入和利潤仍低於我們的預期，因為正如我之前提到的，我們在第四季度沒有獲得G700 的認證，也沒有交付我們準備好的15 架飛機。這使我們損失了略高於 10 億美元的收入和接近 2.5 億美元的收益。當然，這些都是數量級的數字。

We were also enabled during the course of the year to increase production of in-service aircraft as planned because of well-known supply chain issues that began to resolve in the fourth quarter.

由於眾所周知的供應鏈問題在第四季度開始解決，我們在這一年中也能夠按計劃增加在役飛機的產量。

So where are we in our journey toward G700 certification? We are almost complete with the final technical inspection authorization. FAA function and reliability flight testing is almost done and almost all of the paperwork associated with the process has been submitted.

那麼，我們在 G700 認證之旅中處於什麼階段呢？我們即將完成最終的技術檢驗授權。美國聯邦航空局的功能和可靠性飛行測試已基本完成，幾乎所有與該過程相關的文件均已提交。

In the meantime, we are asking customers to schedule their predelivery inspections contemplating delivery this quarter.

同時，我們要求客戶安排考慮本季交付的交付前檢查。

All that having been said, let me turn to the demand environment. The book-to-bill was 1.2x in the quarter and 1.2x for the year. Backlog increased $395 million sequentially and $938 million for the year. So Aerospace demand remains strong for both aircraft and services at Gulfstream and Jet Aviation. I should add that strong order intake was interrupted for a 2- to 3-week period twice during the year, once for a macroeconomic event and the second for a geopolitical event.

說了這麼多，讓我來談談需求環境。本季的訂單出貨比為 1.2 倍，全年的訂單出貨比為 1.2 倍。積壓訂單季增 3.95 億美元，全年增加 9.38 億美元。因此，航空航太對灣流和噴射機航空的飛機和服務的需求仍然強勁。我應該補充一點，強勁的訂單量在一年中兩次中斷了 2 到 3 週，一次是因為宏觀經濟事件，第二次是因為地緣政治事件。

I refer to the regional bank failures earlier in the year and the conflict initiated by the Hamas attack on Israel and the resulted conflict in Gaza. In each case, order intake resumed after a brief pause. As we go into the new year, the sales pipeline remains strong and sales activity is at a solid pace. Aerospace backlog is up 72% since the first quarter of 2021 when we first detected a measurable uptake in order activity.

我指的是今年稍早的地區銀行倒閉以及哈馬斯襲擊以色列引發的衝突以及由此引發的加薩衝突。在每種情況下，訂單接收都會在短暫的暫停後恢復。進入新的一年，銷售通路依然強勁，銷售活動穩步推進。自 2021 年第一季我們首次發現訂單活動大幅增加以來，航空航太積壓訂單增加了 72%。

In summary, Aerospace results are in line with our original forecast, excluding the G700 certification delay. We look forward to a significant increase in deliveries in 2024 and improved operating margin, but I'll say more about this as we get the guidance. We also expect continued growth and margin improvement at Jet Aviation to perform well in the year.

總之，航空航太的結果與我們最初的預測一致，不包括 G700 認證延遲。我們期待 2024 年交付量大幅增加並提高營業利潤率，但在我們獲得指導後我會對此進行更多討論。我們也預計 Jet Aviation 的持續成長和利潤率改善將在今年表現良好。

Next, Combat Systems. Revenue in the quarter of $2.36 billion is up 8.5% from the year ago quarter. Operating earnings of $351 million are up 5.7% on a 40 basis point decrease in operating margin, but still a very good 14.8%. The majority of the growth in the quarter was at Ordnance and Tactical Systems and European Land Systems. It was largely driven by higher artillery and propellant volume, including programs to expand production volume, higher volume of (inaudible) bridges and Eagles in Europe and new international tank programs.

接下來，戰鬥系統。本季營收為 23.6 億美元，比去年同期成長 8.5%。營業利潤為 3.51 億美元，成長 5.7%，營業利潤率下降 40 個基點，但仍是 14.8%，非常不錯。本季的成長主要來自軍械和戰術系統以及歐洲陸地系統。這主要是由於火砲和推進劑產量的增加，包括擴大產量的計劃、歐洲橋樑和鷹式坦克產量的增加以及新的國際坦克計劃。

Not surprisingly, the sequential comparisons are even better. Revenue is up $140 million or 6.3% and earnings are up $51 million or 17% on the strength of a 130 basis point improvement in margins. From an order perspective, Combat had a very good year with a 1.1x book-to-bill driven by very strong international demand for the Abrams main battle tank, growing demand on the munition side of the business and particular strength in Europe.

毫不奇怪，順序比較甚至更好。由於利潤率提高了 130 個基點，營收成長了 1.4 億美元，即 6.3%，獲利成長了 5,100 萬美元，即 17%。從訂單角度來看，Combat 度過了非常好的一年，訂單出貨比增長了1.1 倍，這得益於國際上對艾布拉姆斯主戰坦克的強勁需求、彈藥業務方面不斷增長的需求以及歐洲的特殊實力。

By the way, Combat's performance for the year significantly outperformed our expectations. 2023 revenue was up 13% against a flat forecast provided earlier in the year. Operating earnings are up $72 million or 6.7%, with operating margin at 13.9% for the year.

順便說一句，Combat 今年的表現大大超出了我們的預期。 2023 年營收比今年稍早持平的預測成長 13%。全年營業利潤成長 7,200 萬美元，或 6.7%，營業利益率為 13.9%。

In short, this group had a wonderful quarter and a year with strong revenue growth, strong margin performance, good order activity and a strong pipeline of opportunity as we go forward.

簡而言之，該集團度過了一個精彩的季度和一年，收入成長強勁，利潤率表現強勁，訂單活動良好，並且在我們前進的過程中擁有強大的機會管道。

Turning to Marine. The powerful Marine Systems growth story continues. Fourth quarter revenue of $3.408 billion is up 14.8% over the year ago quarter. Revenue was also up 13.5% sequentially and 12.9% for the year. This was driven by Columbia-class construction and engineering volume, TAO volume and service contracts at back.

轉向海軍陸戰隊。強大的海洋系統成長故事仍在繼續。第四季營收為 34.08 億美元，比去年同期成長 14.8%。營收也比上一季成長 13.5%，全年成長 12.9%。這是由哥倫比亞級建築和工程量、TAO 量和後面的服務合約推動的。

Operating earnings are down 8.4% over the year ago quarter on a 160 basis point reduction in operating margin attributable to EAC rate decreases at Electric Boat. These rate decreases similarly impact the sequential and annual comparison with respect to operating earnings.

由於 Electric Boat 的 EAC 費率下降，營業利潤率下降 160 個基點，營業利潤比去年同期下降 8.4%。這些比率的下降同樣會影響營業利潤的連續和年度比較。

The EAC decreases were primarily driven by 2 factors: later than promised material to EB, which drove additional out-of-station work at EB; and quality problems from several vendors. On the positive side, we are continuing to work with the Navy and the Congress to help further stabilize the supply chain with additional funding for work. We are also working with certain suppliers to set up process improvements where we can. EB also needs to continue to improve its productivity to help offset some of the financial impacts from the supply chain.

EAC 減少主要由兩個因素驅動：晚於向 EB 承諾的材料，這導致 EB 增加了站外工作；以及多家供應商的品質問題。從積極的一面來看，我們將繼續與海軍和國會合作，透過額外的工作資金幫助進一步穩定供應鏈。我們也與某些供應商合作，盡可能改善流程。 EB 也需要持續提高生產力，以幫助抵銷供應鏈帶來的部分財務影響。

Marine Systems had a 1x book-to-bill for the year, a good result for a group of shipyards and began the year with a total backlog of nearly $46 billion.

Marine Systems 公司今年的訂單出貨率達到了 1 倍，這對於造船廠集團來說是一個不錯的結果，年初時積壓訂單總額接近 460 億美元。

Jason will now give you some color on the Technologies group for which he has responsibility and then I'll return for our outlook for 2024.

Jason 現在將向您介紹他所負責的技術團隊的一些情況，然後我將返回我們對 2024 年的展望。

The Technologies group had a solid quarter and a very strong year. Revenue in the quarter of $3.2 billion was down 3.1% compared with the prior year, while operating earnings of $305 million were down 10.3% versus the fourth quarter of 2022. For the year, however, the group's revenue of $12.9 billion was up 3.4%, with both businesses experiencing nice growth. The results exceeded our expectations on strong demand for the group's products and services. .

技術部門的季度表現穩定，全年表現強勁。本季營收為 32 億美元，比上年同期下降 3.1%，營業利潤為 3.05 億美元，比 2022 年第四季下降 10.3%。然而，今年該集團的收入為 129 億美元，成長 3.4% ，兩家公司都取得了良好的成長。由於對該集團產品和服務的強勁需求，結果超出了我們的預期。 。

GDIT fared particularly well with increased volume across each of its customer-facing segments, defense, intel and federal civilian. Operating earnings of $1.2 billion were down by 2% versus the prior year on a 50 basis point contraction in operating margin to 9.3% and that's solely a function of the revenue mix as IT services grew faster than the defense electronics portfolio.

GDIT 的表現尤其出色，其面向客戶的各個細分市場（國防、情報和聯邦民用）的業務量均有所增加。營業利潤為 12 億美元，較上年下降 2%，營業利潤率下降 50 個基點至 9.3%，這只是收入組合的一個函數，因為 IT 服務的成長速度快於國防電子產品組合。

Turning back to the quarterly performance to break it down between the 2 businesses. GDIT's revenue was up in all 4 quarters compared with 2022, and they've now grown their top line in each of the past 3 years.

回到季度業績來細分這兩項業務。與 2022 年相比，GDIT 的所有 4 個季度的收入均有所增長，而且過去 3 年的收入每年都在增長。

The same is true for Mission Systems' quarterly revenue performance with the exception of the fourth quarter. If you recall, last year's fourth quarter saw us break through a log jam in the supply chain and deliver an unusually high number of products listing both revenue and margins. Barring that anomaly in 2022, the group's comparisons on a quarterly and full year basis are quite favorable.

除了第四季外，Mission Systems 的季度營收表現也是如此。如果你還記得的話，去年第四季我們突破了供應鏈中的困境，交付了異常多的產品，同時列出了收入和利潤。除非 2022 年出現這種異常情況，該集團的季度和全年比較都相當有利。

With respect to order activity and backlog, the Technologies group had a very good year, notwithstanding the continuing trend of customer solicitations pushing to the right and recurring award protests. The individual businesses and the group as a whole achieved a 1:1 book-to-bill on solid revenue growth.

就訂單活動和積壓而言，儘管客戶徵求正確方向的趨勢持續存在，並且屢屢出現獲獎抗議，但技術部門還是度過了非常好的一年。各個業務和整個集團實現了 1:1 的訂單出貨比，收入穩步增長。

GDIT received awards totaling $13.5 billion, far exceeding their previous annual record set the year before. They've got another $15 billion in awards pending adjudication and just shy of $2 billion in awards under protest.

GDIT 獲得的獎項總計 135 億美元，遠遠超過了去年創下的年度紀錄。他們還有另外 150 億美元的裁決等待裁決，還有接近 20 億美元的裁決處於抗議之中。

Mission Systems had a great year as well, with the total value of submitted bids almost triple the level they saw in 2022. Of course, many of the group's awards come in the form of IDIQ contracts with potential value that doesn't initially hit the backlog. So much of these positive results will continue to manifest in the reported numbers over time.

Mission Systems 也度過了輝煌的一年，提交的投標總價值幾乎是 2022 年水平的三倍。當然，該集團的許多獎項都以 IDIQ 合約的形式出現，其潛在價值最初並沒有達到預期。積壓。隨著時間的推移，這些正面成果中的大部分將繼續體現在報告的數字中。

To that point, we ended the quarter with a total estimated contract value for the group of nearly $41 billion and the group's combined qualified pipeline exceeds $130 billion. So all in all, a great year for the Technologies group.

到那時，我們在本季結束時預計該集團的合約總價值接近 410 億美元，而該集團合格的管道總價值超過 1,300 億美元。總而言之，對於技術團隊來說，這是偉大的一年。

So let me provide our operating forecast for 2024 with some color around our outlook for each business group and then the company-wide rollup.

因此，讓我提供 2024 年的營運預測，並對每個業務組的前景以及全公司範圍的展望進行一些闡述。

In 2024, we expect Aerospace revenue of about $12 billion, up around 40% over 2023. Operating margin is expected to be up 130 basis points to 15%. Gulfstream deliveries will be around 160, materially over the 111 delivered in 2023. This is about 10 fewer deliveries than we anticipated in the multiyear forecast we gave you in January of '22. The mix will include about 50 G700 deliveries and fewer G280s as a result of the Gaza conflicts' impact on our Israel-based supplier.

2024 年，我們預計航空航太收入約為 120 億美元，比 2023 年成長約 40%。營業利潤率預計將成長 130 個基點，達到 15%。灣流的交付量將約為 160 架，大大超過 2023 年交付的 111 架。這比我們在 2022 年 1 月向您提供的多年預測中的預期少了約 10 架。由於加薩衝突對我們以色列供應商的影響，該組合將包括大約 50 輛 G700 交付和更少的 G280。

As I just noted, we anticipate a 15% operating margin for the year, weaker in the first half, particularly in the second quarter and then well over 15% in the third and fourth quarters. While the ramp-up is slightly less than previously anticipated, it is not without supply chain challenges.

正如我剛才指出的，我們預計今年的營業利潤率為 15%，上半年較弱，尤其是第二季度，然後第三季和第四季將遠超 15%。雖然增幅略低於先前的預期，但並非沒有供應鏈挑戰。

In Combat Systems, at this time last year, we had anticipated revenue to be flat in '23. With the changed threat environment, we had a 13% increase in revenue. For '24, we expect revenue to be up about 3% to $8.5 billion, coupled with a 50 basis point improvement in operating margin to 14.4%. The outlook is a result of the strong order activity we saw in '23 and the demand signals we see in Europe. To the extent that these demand signals start to convert into order activity, we could see some opportunity for additional revenue later in the year, particularly in our armaments and munitions business.

在戰鬥系統領域，去年的這個時候，我們預計 23 年的收入將持平。隨著威脅環境的變化，我們的收入成長了 13%。我們預計 24 年營收將成長約 3%，達到 85 億美元，營業利潤率將提高 50 個基點，達到 14.4%。這一前景是我們在 23 年看到的強勁訂單活動以及我們在歐洲看到的需求訊號的結果。如果這些需求訊號開始轉化為訂單活動，我們可能會在今年稍後看到一些額外收入的機會，特別是在我們的軍火和彈藥業務方面。

As I noted earlier, the Marine Group has been on a remarkable growth journey. In 2023, revenues came in much stronger than expected, almost $1.6 billion against a flattish forecast. Our outlook for this year anticipates revenue of about $12.8 billion with operating margin improvement to 7.6%, which should result in a meaningful improvement in earnings in 2024.

正如我之前指出的，海事集團一直在經歷一段非凡的成長歷程。 2023 年，營收遠強於預期，接近 16 億美元，而預測則持平。我們對今年的展望預計收入約為 128 億美元，營業利潤率將提高至 7.6%，這應該會導致 2024 年收益顯著改善。

In Technologies, 2023 revenue was stronger than anticipated in both businesses. 2024 revenue is expected to be up about 1% to $13 billion. Within the group, GDIT will be up low single digits and Mission Systems will be down slightly due to a transition from legacy systems and a slow ramp-up on new programs.

在技​​術領域，這兩項業務 2023 年的收入均強於預期。 2024 年營收預計將成長約 1%，達到 130 億美元。在該集團內，GDIT 將成長低個位數，而任務系統將因遺留系統的過渡和新專案的緩慢成長而略有下降。

Operating margins are expected to improve 20 basis points to about 9.5%. We see long-term low single-digit growth for the group and continued industry-leading margins.

營業利潤率預計將提高 20 個基點，達到 9.5% 左右。我們預計該集團將長期保持低個位數成長，並保持業界領先的利潤率。

So for 2024, company-wide, we expect to see revenue of approximately $46.3 billion to $46.4 billion, an increase of around 9.5%. We anticipate operating margin of 11%, up 100 basis points from 2023. All this rolls up to an EPS forecast of around $14.4. A reasonable range would be $14.35 to $14.45. On a quarterly basis, the first 2 quarters look a lot of like with very strong third and fourth quarters.

因此，2024 年，我們預計全公司營收約 463 億美元至 464 億美元，成長約 9.5%。我們預計營業利潤率為 11%，比 2023 年提高 100 個基點。所有這些綜合起來，每股收益預測約為 14.4 美元。合理的範圍是 14.35 美元到 14.45 美元。從季度來看，前兩個季度與第三季和第四季非常相似。

In summary, as we go into this year, we feel very good about the demand environment across all of our businesses. It has been some time since I have seen stronger demand signals and better promise of organic growth. We also have some very good opportunities across the business to improve operating margins. All we must do is execute. It almost goes without saying that we'll be laser-focused on operations.

總之，進入今年，我們對所有業務的需求環境感覺非常好。我已經有一段時間沒有看到更強勁的需求訊號和更好的有機成長前景了。我們在整個業務中也有一些非常好的機會來提高營業利潤率。我們所要做的就是執行。幾乎不言而喻，我們將專注於營運。

Nicole, back to you.

妮可，回到你身邊。

Thanks, Phebe. As a reminder, we ask participants to ask one question and one follow-up so that everyone has a chance to participate. Operator, could you please remind participants how to enter the queue.

謝謝，菲比。提醒一下，我們要求參與者提出一個問題和一個後續行動，以便每個人都有機會參與。接線員，請您提醒參與者如何進入隊列。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Myles Walton at Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們將回答 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton 提出的第一個問題。

I was hoping you could touch on the 700 (inaudible). How many do you have ready for predelivery inspection from your customers? And also relative to confidence of when the deliveries could take place. I mean this is pretty much out of your control. The FAA has published a few rules last week that are pending and have to go through their process. I'm just curious, your confidence level for first quarter delivery versus, say, where you were in the fourth quarter, expecting deliveries by year-end.

我希望您能談談 700（聽不清楚）。您準備了多少件可供客戶進行交貨前檢查？也相對於何時可以進行交付的信心。我的意思是這幾乎是你無法控制的。美國聯邦航空局上週發布了一些尚未確定的規則，必須通過其程序。我只是很好奇，您對第一季交付的信心水平與您在第四季度的預期年底交付的信心水平相比。

So we have 15 airplanes ready to go. And the hope is that we deliver them this quarter. The notifications that Gulfstream made earlier, I guess, this week, are in the regular order and really have no material impact on the certification process. I tried to give you as much clarity as I could in around the certification and where we are.

我們有 15 架飛機準備起飛。希望我們能在本季交付它們。我想灣流本週稍早發出的通知是正常的，對認證過程確實沒有實質影響。我盡力向您盡可能清楚地介紹認證以及我們所處的位置。

Is there an 800 delivery assumed in the guidance for '24?

'24 指南中是否假設交付量為 800 件？

So we're not going to go into what we've assumed in -- for any given airplane in our guidance. So let me give you guys some perspective about this. For the last 8 years, we've tried to give you some clarity about a process over which we have control, no control. And it's kind of like sticking your fingers in a light socket to predict a process that we just don't control. So I think we're going to be silent as we go forward about any specificity around certification timing because then we hear words like slip and miss, and these planes are going to get certified, but get certified on the FAA schedule.

因此，我們不會深入討論我們在指南中對任何特定飛機的假設。那麼讓我給你們一些對此的看法。在過去的 8 年裡，我們一直試圖讓您清楚地了解我們可以控製或無法控制的流程。這有點像是將手指插入電燈插座來預測我們無法控制的過程。因此，我認為，當我們繼續討論有關認證時間的任何具體問題時，我們將保持沉默，因為然後我們會聽到諸如“失誤”和“錯過”之類的詞，這些飛機將獲得認證，但會按照美國聯邦航空局的時間表獲得認證。

We'll move next to Ron Epstein at Bank of America.

我們將接任美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

Maybe just circling back on your remarks, Phebe, around EB, but maybe more broadly, just kind of the ship industrial base. The DoD has been making some big investments, where do you see Virginia Class build rates ultimately getting Colombia to? Because it just seems like the supply chain and maybe just also from just a capacity perspective, you were just under capacitized. So I mean, any thoughts on that?

Phebe，也許只是回顧一下您關於 EB 的言論，但也許更廣泛地說，只是船舶工業基地。國防部一直在進行一些重大投資，您認為哥倫比亞級維吉尼亞級建造率最終會達到什麼水準？因為它看起來就像供應鏈，也許只是從能力的角度來看，你的能力不足。所以我的意思是，對此有什麼想法嗎？

So let's step back a minute and talk a little bit about the shipbuilding industrial base in general and the submarine industrial base in particular. These are very heavily manpower-driven businesses in industry and in entire supply chain. And our manpower availability was impacted significantly as a result of COVID in 2 respects. First, we had a really a stunning increase in the timing and the number of retirements of seasoned workers throughout the industrial base. That, coupled with the post-COVID labor shortages caused considerable perturbation in the supply chain. Those will begin to remedy.

因此，讓我們退後一步，談談造船工業基地，特別是潛水艇工業基地。在工業和整個供應鏈中，這些都是非常依賴人力驅動的業務。由於新冠疫情，我們的人力資源在兩個方面受到了重大影響。首先，整個工業基地經驗豐富的工人的退休時間和數量確實有了驚人的成長。再加上新冠疫情後的勞動力短缺，對供應鏈造成了相當大的干擾。這些將開始補救。

We've already seen some stabilization in the labor market, those will remedy. But there's clearly learning that has to happen throughout the supply chain.

我們已經看到勞動市場出現了一定程度的穩定，這些都將起到補救作用。但顯然整個供應鏈都必須學習。

I'd say with respect to capacity at Electric Boat, we are nicely -- sufficient capacity in the moment to deal with the demand that we have -- we see at the moment. But should that demand signal increase in the near term or work closely with our Navy customer. I think key to the stabilization of the supply chain is improved delivery and improved quality. And that happens as new workers come down their learning curves, we benefited Electric Boat because we have a very robust training system in which our new workers come out at a higher level of proficiency, but still they need to come down their learning curves, and they're doing so nicely.

我想說的是，關於電船的產能，我們目前有足夠的產能來滿足我們目前的需求。但如果需求訊號在短期內增加，或與我們的海軍客戶密切合作。我認為供應鏈穩定的關鍵是改善交付和提高品質。當新工人下降學習曲線時，就會發生這種情況，我們使電船受益，因為我們有一個非常強大的培訓系統，我們的新工人可以達到更高的熟練程度，但他們仍然需要下降學習曲線，並且他們做得很好。

I think to add a little bit of perspective to that. Electric Boat, we increased our velocity and throughput on Virginia by about 10% this year in '24 and about 30% on Colombia. So Electric Boat is continuing to do well. They just needed continue to improve their productivity. So we can continue to offset some of these financial impacts that we're seeing from the supply chain.

我想對此添加一點觀點。電船方面，今年 24 年我們在維吉尼亞州的速度和吞吐量提高了約 10%，在哥倫比亞的速度和吞吐量提高了約 30%。因此，電動船繼續表現良好。他們只需要繼續提高生產力。因此，我們可以繼續抵消我們從供應鏈中看到的一些財務影響。

But I would finally mention the Navy has been a very good partner in recognizing these challenges and working hard to get orders and certainty of demand into the supply chain, and that helps the entire supply chain plan.

但我最後要提到的是，海軍在認識到這些挑戰並努力將訂單和需求確定性納入供應鏈方面一直是一個非常好的合作夥伴，這有助於整個供應鏈計畫。

Got it. And then maybe just one quick follow-on. Are we capacitized enough to meet the demand that (inaudible) would require having an extra Virginia Class every 3 years?

知道了。然後也許只是一個快速的後續行動。我們是否有足夠的能力來滿足（聽不清楚）每三年增加一次維吉尼亞班的需求？

So I think we're going to look at all of that with the Navy. But let me tell you the best thing we can do for (inaudible) the moment is get back to 2 a year production. It's one step at a time.

所以我認為我們將與海軍一起研究所有這些。但讓我告訴你，我們現在能做的最好的事情（聽不清楚）就是恢復到每年 2 部的產量。這是一次一步。

We'll take our next question from Jason Gursky at Citigroup.

我們將回答花旗集團 Jason Gursky 的下一個問題。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the G400 and how that plane seems to be performing from a market acceptance perspective and kind of the pipeline that you're seeing for that aircraft? I'm just kind of curious how that segment of your market is shaping up there as we come into the new year?

我想知道您是否可以談談 G400，從市場接受度的角度來看，這架飛機的表現如何，以及您認為該飛機的管道類型如何？我只是有點好奇，當我們進入新的一年時，你們這一部分的市場將如何發展？

So the plane is performing very nicely in excess of the design parameters. We see considerable interest in that end of the market. And so we are quite positive about that airplane when it enters into service.

因此，這架飛機的性能非常好，超出了設計參數。我們看到了市場對這一端的巨大興趣。因此，當這架飛機投入使用時，我們對此非常樂觀。

Okay. Great. And then your comments on Combat and the potential for some orders converting into revenue coming out of Europe in the second half of the year, (inaudible) your guidance. But I'm just kind of curious how far into the year can we get those orders and actually convert them into revenue?

好的。偉大的。然後是您對 Combat 的評論以及下半年一些訂單轉化為來自歐洲的收入的潛力，（聽不清楚）您的指導。但我只是有點好奇，今年多久我們才能獲得這些訂單並將其實際轉化為收入？

Well, it depends on what the orders are for on faster transaction material like service and munitions, they can move a little more quickly. Longer lead orders on combat vehicles take a little bit longer. So we factored to the best of our ability, the known demand signals and the velocity of contracting into our plan. So to the extent that there is upside, it will be, I think, largely on the ammunition programs that execute at a faster rate. And to the extent that we can speed up even further, the installation of additional jigs and fixtures for productivity as well as our increased scope on delivery of munitions that should help as well.

好吧，這取決於訂單對服務和彈藥等更快的交易材料的訂單，它們可以移動得更快一些。戰車的較長交貨期訂單需要更長的時間。因此，我們盡最大努力將已知的需求訊號和簽約速度納入我們的計劃中。因此，我認為，就其優勢而言，這在很大程度上取決於執行速度更快的彈藥計劃。如果我們可以進一步加快速度，安裝額外的夾具和固定裝置以提高生產力，以及擴大彈藥交付範圍也應該有所幫助。

But we think we -- look, in all cases, we give you a very balanced, I'd say 50-50 plan with opportunities and risks, and we're quite comfortable with the estimates that we've given you at the time.

但我們認為，在所有情況下，我們都會為您提供一個非常平衡的，我想說 50-50 的計劃，其中包含機會和風險，而且我們對當時給您的估計感到非常滿意。

We'll go next to David Strauss at Barclays.

接下來我們將前往巴克萊銀行的大衛‧史特勞斯。

Phebe, any thoughts on how the budget process for '24 might actually play out here, given that we're quickly approaching the potential for a sequester?

Phebe，考慮到我們正在迅速接近自動減支的潛力，您對 24 世紀的預算流程實際上如何進行有什麼想法嗎？

So we have factored in all known funding into our plan. And should we see an extensive continued -- continuing resolution, we'll have to see what impact that has on our faster transaction businesses because every CR plays out a bit differently. And to the extent that we have a sequester, then we have factored some of that but -- clearly, you can't do all of it into your plan. So we'll adjust accordingly. But we are hopeful that the Congress is able to pass a critical defense bill, particularly in these times, given the threat environment.

因此，我們已將所有已知資金納入我們的計劃中。如果我們看到廣泛的持續解決方案，我們將不得不看看這對我們更快的交易業務有何影響，因為每個 CR 的表現都略有不同。如果我們有一個隔離措施，那麼我們已經考慮了其中的一些因素，但顯然，你不能將所有這些都納入你的計劃中。所以我們會進行相對應的調整。但我們希望國會能夠通過一項關鍵的國防法案，特別是在當前的威脅環境下。

Okay. Jason, I wanted to ask about free cash flow and capital deployment, maybe help with some of the big moving pieces. I mean, obviously, inventory was a big drag, but advance has helped a lot, your cash taxes have been really high. How do those all factor in '24? And I assume your guidance includes nothing as usual for capital deployment. How should we think about that given you have very little in maturities this year?

好的。傑森，我想詢問有關自由現金流和資本配置的問題，也許可以幫助解決一些重大的問題。我的意思是，顯然，庫存是一個很大的拖累，但預付款有很大幫助，你的現金稅非常高。這些因素如何影響「24」？我認為你的指導不包括像往常一樣的資本部署。鑑於今年您的到期日很少，我們應該如何考慮這一點？

Yes. So when you think about free cash flow, we are anticipating to continue in the 100% conversion range in '24 and beyond. Obviously, we outperformed that a bit in 2023, but that doesn't affect what we expect in '24. So the good news is a lot of the larger scale moving parts around cash flow are starting to settle down a little bit.

是的。因此，當您考慮自由現金流時，我們預計 24 年及以後將繼續保持在 100% 的轉換範圍內。顯然，我們在 2023 年的表現略勝一籌，但這並不影響我們對 24 年的預期。因此，好消息是，圍繞現金流的許多大規模移動部分開始穩定下來。

We've experienced some big headwinds and then some corresponding tailwinds over the past several years. But right now, if you look ahead, I think you can expect for the Aerospace group, a fairly steady conversion at or slightly above 100% conversion.

在過去的幾年裡，我們經歷了一些巨大的逆風，然後也經歷了一些相應的順風。但現在，如果你展望未來，我認為你可以期待航空航太集團的轉換率相當穩定，達到或略高於 100%。

When you think about it, we got a pretty big tailwind when they were building the significant backlog over the past few years and all the deposits were coming in. So that more than offset any effect of inventory build. So as you transition into a period where you're starting to deliver off that inventory, but then you assume a steady 1:1 book-to-bill, you should be in a pretty regular burn rate at 100% conversion plus or minus for that business.

當你想一想時，當他們在過去幾年中積累大量積壓訂單並且所有存款都進來時，我們得到了相當大的順風。因此，這足以抵消庫存增加的任何影響。因此，當您過渡到開始交付庫存的時期，但隨後您假設訂單與賬單的比例穩定為 1:1，則您應該處於 100% 轉化正負的相當正常的燃燒率那個生意。

Combat Systems, on the other hand, should continue to see tailwinds as they work through some of the receivables and work in process on the international programs that we've made some great progress on in recent years. So that will continue for a couple of years.

另一方面，戰鬥系統應該繼續看到順風，因為他們正在處理一些應收帳款和正在進行的國際項目，我們近年來在這些項目上取得了一些重大進展。因此，這種情況將持續幾年。

The Technologies group is a steady provider above -- well above 100% conversion. And the Marine Systems group, as we noted, is still finishing up some of the large capital projects, we're coming through that now, and we'll see what the future holds, as Phebe alluded to, in terms of Navy investment.

技術團隊是上述穩定的供應商——遠高於 100% 的轉換率。正如我們所指出的，海洋系統集團仍在完成一些大型資本項目，我們現在正在完成這個項目，我們將看看未來如何，正如菲比所提到的，在海軍投資方面。

But when you kind of net all those together, we're right about 100% for the coming year. If you look at capital deployment, as you noted, there's not a lot in terms of commitment. We've got $500 million in notes that mature out in November of this year. So we've got plenty of time to kind of see how things play out and decide what we want to do with that maturity. No rush on that decision. And we'll look at all options as we always have.

但當你把所有這些加在一起時，我們對來年的預測是 100% 正確的。正如您所指出的，如果您看看資本部署，您會發現承諾並不多。我們有 5 億美元的票據將於今年 11 月到期。因此，我們有足夠的時間來看看事情如何發展，並決定我們想要利用這種成熟度做什麼。不急於做出這個決定。我們將一如既往地考慮所有選項。

I think we've got great opportunity for stepped-up share repurchases as more, I should say, as uncertainty sort of moves out of the environment. We looked at the last half of last year, the last quarter of last year, and the significant threat of a government shutdown sort of hung over the environment. And that factors into our thinking as we think about how we preserve cash and deploy capital.

我認為，隨著不確定性逐漸擺脫環境，我們有很好的機會增加股票回購力道。我們回顧了去年下半年、最後一個季度，政府關門的重大威脅籠罩著環境。當我們思考如何保存現金和部署資本時，這會影響我們的思考。

So if we can get past that in March, then I think it provides a lot of optionality for us as we look ahead on the capital deployment front.

因此，如果我們能夠在三月度過這段時期，那麼我認為在我們展望資本部署方面時，這將為我們提供許多選擇。

If you think about it, the demand signals we see and our expected growth make share repurchases increasingly compelling. And one thing that Jason talked about, just mentioned tangentially, and I want to focus a little bit on and just give you guys some perspective. When we talk about a 1:1 book-to-bill in our businesses, that's really for planning purposes, it's not a forecast. So just keep that in mind.

如果你仔細想想，我們看到的需求訊號和我們預期的成長使得股票回購變得越來越有吸引力。傑森談到的一件事，只是題外話，我想稍微關心一下，給你們一些觀點。當我們在業務中談論 1:1 的訂單到帳單時，這實際上是出於規劃目的，而不是預測。所以請記住這一點。

We'll move next to Sheila Kahyaoglu at Jefferies.

我們將搬到 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu 旁邊。

Great color on Gulfstream. You gave some numbers around the lost revenues and profit that slipped into '24 from the G700, which would imply north of 20% margins for the G700 and given you have quite a few built up already. Any color you could give on profit profile of the G700 relative to maybe the 650 and the 500 and 600?

灣流的顏色很棒。您提供了一些關於從 G700 進入 24 年的收入和利潤損失的數字，這意味著 G700 的利潤率將超過 20%，並且考慮到您已經建立了相當多的利潤。您能對 G700 相對於 650、500 和 600 的利潤狀況給予什麼顏色嗎？

Can you repeat the last part of your question, it was kind of coming in.

你能重複一下你問題的最後部分嗎，它有點進來了。

Sure. Sorry. It was more just the profit profile of the G700 relative to the 650 and the 500, 600 as it entered service just because you gave the revenues of...

當然。對不起。這更多的是 G700 相對於 650 和 500、600 的利潤狀況，因為它投入使用只是因為你給了…的收入

Yes, the 700 comes in at accretive margins. But as you all know, and many of you are quite expert in this, as we talked about over the years, including on this call, the margin performance at Gulfstream is driven by a host of issues. And as I noted in my remarks, mix pricing, out of station work, all impacted. So I think, again, as I mentioned earlier, the way to think about our plan is it really balanced plan, not quite the question you asked, but I'd stick with that and I think about it that way. But these new airplanes are coming in at very nice margins.

是的，700 的利潤率不斷增加。但眾所周知，你們中的許多人都是這方面的專家，正如我們多年來討論的那樣，包括在這次電話會議上，灣流的利潤率表現是由一系列問題驅動的。正如我在演講中指出的那樣，混合定價、站外工作都受到了影響。所以我認為，正如我之前提到的，思考我們計劃的方式是真正平衡的計劃，而不完全是你問的問題，但我會堅持這一點，我會這樣考慮。但這些新飛機的利潤率非常高。

Okay. And then if I could ask one more on the defense side of the business, just given a lot of what your peers are talking about as well. And you have pretty robust demand in Marine and Combat, but earnings growth tends to be below revenue growth. So just given inflation and mix, how do you think about GD's ability to continue to grow defense profit? It seems like Combat is seeing some of that.

好的。然後，我是否可以再問一個關於業務防禦方面的問題，只是考慮到您的同行也在談論的很多內容。海軍陸戰隊和戰鬥領域的需求相當強勁，但獲利成長往往低於收入成長。那麼，考慮到通貨膨脹和組合，您如何看待 GD 繼續成長國防利潤的能力？ Combat 似乎也看到了其中的一些情況。

Combat is seeing some of it, but I tried to give you some perspective earlier on the impacts of -- what happened to the industrial base in the Marine group, and it also impacted Gulfstream as a result of COVID. So for us, it's really a question of operating excellence, operating excellence, operating excellence. We're going to focus on that very heavily. So we drive increased profitable growth. That's the value proposition that we're looking at right now.

戰鬥中看到了其中的一些情況，但我早些時候試圖向你們提供一些關於海軍陸戰隊工業基地發生的事情的影響的看法，而且它也因新冠肺炎而影響了灣流。所以對我們來說，這其實是一個卓越營運、卓越營運、卓越營運的問題。我們將非常關注這一點。因此，我們推動利潤成長。這就是我們現在正在考慮的價值主張。

We'll move next to Seth Seifman at JPMorgan.

我們將接替摩根大通的塞思‧塞夫曼 (Seth Seifman)。

I wanted to start off asking about Combat. And just the 3% growth guide, I guess, even if we adjust for some seasonality, I might have thought that the activity levels that we're seeing here in the early what we saw in the second half of '23, would it lead to some really quite robust growth in the first half, perhaps even double digit?

我想先詢問戰鬥。我想，即使我們根據某些季節性因素進行調整，只有 3% 的成長指南，我可能會認為，我們在 23 年下半年看到的早期活動水平是否會領先上半年的成長確實相當強勁，甚至可能達到兩位數？

And then being at 3%, would it imply something like flat or down in the second half? Am I not thinking about that cadence properly? Or is there some reason for the growth to really step off or come down in the second half?

那麼如果是 3%，是否代表下半年會出現持平或下降的情況？我是否沒有正確考慮這種節奏？或者是否有某種原因導致下半年成長真正放緩或下降？

No. I wouldn't look at anything macro with respect to that. In a quickly growing environment, contracts tend to come in a little bit more lumpier. And so this is simply a question of timing. I think we see mid- to upper single digits over and toward the higher upper single digits over our plan period.

不，我不會考慮任何與此相關的宏觀問題。在快速成長的環境中，合約往往會更加不穩定。所以這只是一個時間問題。我認為，在我們的計劃期內，我們會看到中上個位數的數字，並朝著更高的個位數的方向發展。

But we've given you the plan that given the faster execution of contracting that we saw last year, we may have a bit of a slowdown in the first couple of quarters and then acceleration as the year goes on. But the demand is there.

但我們已經向您提供了計劃，考慮到我們去年看到的合約執行速度更快，我們可能會在前幾個季度略有放緩，然後隨著時間的推移而加速。但需求是存在的。

Sure. Sure. Okay. Excellent. And then on Aerospace, I guess it's probably about 2 years ago that you gave us kind of a multiyear look at the Aerospace business and the expectations there as the demand started to gather. Since that bunch of stuff has happened, I think the demand has probably been a little stronger than expected. We've also seen some supply chain issues, some certification pushouts. As we think about sort of a multiyear outlook for Aerospace in terms of deliveries and profitability, is that something you can update at this time?

當然。當然。好的。出色的。然後在航空航天方面，我想大約是在兩年前，您給了我們對航空航天業務的多年觀察，以及隨著需求開始聚集而產生的期望。自從發生了這些事情之後，我認為需求可能比預期要強一些。我們也看到了一些供應鏈問題，一些認證被取消。當我們考慮航空航太在交付和盈利能力方面的多年前景時，您現在可以更新這些內容嗎？

Yes. So we're going to deliver 160 airplanes that's in our plan this year. I will say that '25 will be more deliveries and '26 even more deliveries. But at this point, given the issues that you mentioned, it's -- we're not going to be any more granular than that. We owe you additional fidelity as time goes on.

是的。因此，我們今年計劃交付 160 架飛機。我想說的是，'25 將會有更多的交付，'26 將會有更多的交付。但在這一點上，考慮到你提到的問題，我們不會比這更詳細。隨著時間的推移，我們對您更加忠誠。

Our next question comes from Noah Poponak at Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞·波波納克。

Phebe, maybe just following on that, but a little bit bigger picture. I was curious to hear you talk about how you're managing supply versus demand in this pretty unique business jet market? Because if you go to $12 billion in revenue, that's run rating $3 billion a quarter, and based on the change in backlog, I know that's imperfect. But directionally, the order rate had made it to $3 billion a quarter, but it's now slowed a little bit, and we're trying to figure out where this market settles out.

菲比，也許只是遵循這一點，但有一點更大的前景。我很想聽聽您談論如何在這個非常獨特的公務機市場中管理供需關係？因為如果你的收入達到 120 億美元，那麼每季的評級為 30 億美元，根據積壓訂單的變化，我知道這並不完美。但從方向上看，訂單率已達到每季 30 億美元，但現在有所放緩，我們正在努力找出這個市場的最終結果。

And so you want to get customers airplanes and you want to grow, but I know you also want to maintain backlog and that you're more focused on pricing and margins than units. And so if you're going to $12 billion and then as you just said to Seth, you're going to go higher, I guess, you'd be burning backlog. So how do you think about managing that multiyear supply versus demand in that market?

因此，您希望為客戶提供飛機並希望實現成長，但我知道您也希望保持積壓，並且您更專注於定價和利潤而不是數量。因此，如果你要達到 120 億美元，然後正如你剛才對 Seth 所說的那樣，你會走得更高，我想，你會燃燒積壓的訂單。那麼，您如何看待管理該市場的多年供應與需求呢？

Well, I don't see us particularly burning through backlog given the robust backlog we have and given the robust pipeline that we have. We're off to a good start this year. So I don't see anything that particularly drive an unhealthy burn through the backlog. We see -- we have believed for some time and it is turning out to be the case that new clean sheet airplanes drive incremental demand. And we're certainly seeing that, and we don't see much of an abatement in that.

嗯，考慮到我們擁有大量的積壓工作以及我們擁有的強大的管道，我認為我們不會特別消耗積壓工作。今年我們有一個好的開始。因此，我沒有看到任何特別會導致積壓的不健康消耗的因素。我們看到——我們相信有一段時間了，事實證明，新的乾淨飛機推動了增量需求。我們確實看到了這一點，而且我們沒有看到這種情況有太大的減弱。

Okay. So it sounds like you potentially expect the -- that quarterly order rate to pick back up moving forward as your new airplanes are more entrenched in the market.

好的。因此，聽起來您可能會預期，隨著您的新飛機在市場上的地位更加穩固，季度訂單率將會回升。

Well, look, the order rate has been quite healthy and quite wholesome, and we would expect additional orders supported by the pipeline to come in this year. So we're not going to give you any real granularity around orders per quarter, but we've seen nice demand, continuing interest and a very solid pipeline. To me, those are the sort of foundational elements that we rely on for looking on a going-forward basis, looking at what production can ultimately be.

好吧，看，訂單率相當健康，我們預計今年將有更多訂單支援。因此，我們不會為您提供有關每季訂單的任何真正粒度，但我們已經看到了良好的需求、持續的興趣和非常穩固的管道。對我來說，這些都是我們在未來展望生產最終結果時所依賴的基本要素。

We'll move next to Cai von Rumohr at TD Cowen.

我們將移至 TD Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr 旁邊。

Good numbers. So Gulfstream -- 2 issues. First, you mentioned the Hamas attack and the impact on the G280, maybe tell me the status of that and what that means in terms of your ability to get deliveries.

好數字。灣流－有 2 個問題。首先，您提到了哈馬斯的襲擊以及對 G280 的影響，也許可以告訴我該事件的狀況以及這對您獲得交付的能力意味著什麼。

And secondly, I think the bigger question is, by my quick math, it looks like your guidance for '24 implies an 18% margin -- incremental margin at Gulfstream, which seems low given the good margins you should be getting on the G700.

其次，我認為更大的問題是，根據我的快速計算，您對24 年的指導似乎意味著18% 的利潤率——灣流的增量利潤率，考慮到您應該在G700 上獲得良好的利潤率，這個數字似乎很低。

You're right. Let's agree that we're not -- we shouldn't in any given moment infer something from an implied margin. I think, as you know, probably better than most the margin performance in any given quarter is driven by a myriad of factors that we have gone over multiple times. And I think in this environment where we are encouraged by the supply chain, but we've got more ways to go. We think that we have given you a very, very balanced plan, and I really stick to that plan. That's how I think about it.

你說得對。我們同意，我們不——我們不應該在任何特定時刻從隱含邊際推斷出某些東西。我認為，正如您所知，任何特定季度的利潤率表現可能比大多數情況都要好，這是由我們多次討論過的無數因素推動的。我認為在這種環境下，我們受到供應鏈的鼓勵，但我們還有更多的路要走。我們認為我們已經給了你們一個非常非常平衡的計劃，我真的堅持這個計劃。我就是這麼想的。

With respect to the 280, we have properly adjusted our plan to deal with the realities of what they are facing there. They are continuing to perform with retirees and management. And as I said, we factored all of that into our expectations for the year.

對於280，我們根據他們的實際情況，適當調整了計劃。他們將繼續與退休人員和管理層一起表演。正如我所說，我們將所有這些都納入了今年的預期中。

So is that -- I mean, I still don't quite understand the 18% margin. Is that sort of a P&L drag, the fact that there's -- they can't get enough for the timing?

那麼——我的意思是，我仍然不太明白 18% 的利潤率。這是一種損益拖累嗎？事實上，他們無法在時機上獲得足夠的回報？

I wouldn't say it's a P&L drag. It's just a reality of the multiplicity of factors that are impacting us. '24 is a pivotal year. We saw a significant improvement in the supply chain during the course of the year, but frankly, allowed us to increase production in the latter half of the year. If you recall, we were delivering between 24 and 25 aircraft, and we delivered 39 in the fourth quarter, that makes us pretty optimistic that we can continue to increase production. But we are cautious about the ability of the supply chain to keep up. All indicators are that they're doing quite well. But it -- this is one step at a time, and there's more risk. As I say, we're optimistic, but we've got a ways to go.

我不會說這是損益的拖累。這只是影響我們的多種因素的現實。 24年是關鍵的一年。這一年我們看到供應鏈有了顯著改善，但坦白說，這使我們能夠在下半年增加產量。如果你還記得的話，我們交付了 24 至 25 架飛機，而我們在第四季度交付了 39 架，這讓我們對繼續增加產量感到非常樂觀。但我們對供應鏈的跟上能力持謹慎態度。所有指標都顯示他們做得很好。但這是一次一步，而且風險更大。正如我所說，我們很樂觀，但我們還有很長的路要走。

We'll move next to George Shapiro at Shapiro Research.

我們將轉到夏皮羅研究中心的喬治夏皮羅旁邊。

Just following up a bit on Cai's question. I mean the incremental margin was like 38% here in this fourth quarter, which is pretty extraordinary. So -- I mean what changes to really knock that down to the point that Cai's comment?

只是跟進蔡的問題。我的意思是第四季度的增量利潤率約為 38%，這是非常了不起的。那麼——我的意思是，要做出哪些改變才能真正降低到蔡評論的程度？

You guys are reverse engineering incremental margin, and it's almost impossible to deal with and the complexity of this business. I would infer nothing from it. Look, let's talk about the underlying capabilities. Gulfstream has a lot of operating leverage. They've always been a good -- since we acquired them at GD years ago, they have been strong operating performers with very good margin performance and gross margins coming out of their operations. That won't change, but the mix of business, the level of any given quarter's timing around supply chain and its impact on out of station work and mix of service, Jet Aviation, all of those things are contributing.

你們正在對增量利潤進行逆向工程，這幾乎是不可能處理的，而且這項業務的複雜性。我不會從中推斷出任何東西。看，我們來談談底層能力。灣流擁有很大的營運槓桿。他們一直很優秀——自從幾年前我們在 GD 收購他們以來，他們的經營業績一直強勁，利潤率表現和營運毛利率都非常好。這不會改變，但業務組合、任何特定季度圍繞供應鏈的時間安排水平及其對站外工作和服務組合、噴氣航空的影響，所有這些都在做出貢獻。

So there is nothing systemic other than those issues that you know and they are temporary and we will work through the supply chain issues. But there's nothing systemic that you concern you about where we stand on Gulfstream and its ability to increase margins, earnings and revenue over time here.

因此，除了您知道的這些問題之外，沒有任何系統性的問題，它們是暫時的，我們將解決供應鏈問題。但對於我們對灣流的立場以及它隨著時間的推移增加利潤、收益和收入的能力，沒有任何系統性的問題值得你擔心。

And one for you, Jason. The unbilled receivables were down like $450 million in the quarter. Is that just AJAX catching up.

還有一份送給你，傑森。本季未開立應收帳款減少了約 4.5 億美元。難道只是 AJAX 迎頭趕上嗎？

It's a little bit AJAX and it's a little bit of the ongoing payments on our other large international program and Combat Systems. Those are the 2 big pieces, yes, George.

它有點像 AJAX，也是我們其他大型國際計劃和戰鬥系統的持續付款的一部分。這是兩塊大塊，是的，喬治。

We will take our next question from Robert Spingarn at Melius Research.

我們將回答 Melius Research 的 Robert Spingarn 提出的下一個問題。

Phebe, the marine guide implies about $340 million in sales growth. And in the past, you've talked about Colombia driving $400 million to $500 million of growth per year. So could an economic price adjustment for Virginia Class be a meaningful source of sales and operating income for Marine in 2024?

航海指南 Phebe 意味著銷售額增長約 3.4 億美元。過去，您曾談到哥倫比亞每年推動 4 億至 5 億美元的成長。那麼，Virginia Class 的經濟價格調整能否成為 Marine 2024 年銷售和營運收入的一個有意義的來源呢？

Well, EPA adjustments can always be a good source of income. Look, I think the way that we've always talked about the marine growth being somewhat lumpy, $300 million to $500 million in any given year. But in the next 2 years, we expect between $600 million and $1 billion in per annum growth. So the growth is there. It just comes in on a lumpier basis than you might -- than one might want, but it is there.

嗯，環保署的調整總是可以成為一個很好的收入來源。聽著，我認為我們一直在談論的海洋成長方式有些不穩定，每年都會有 3 億至 5 億美元的成長。但在未來 2 年，我們預計每年將成長 6 億至 10 億美元。所以成長就在那裡。它只是比你想像的更不穩定——比人們想要的更不穩定，但它就在那裡。

And -- so with respect to Virginia and any EPA adjustments, we're continuing to work with the Navy. We had contemplated the impact of Colombia prioritization as had the Navy on Virginia, and that's just a work in progress as we through all the particulars with the Navy. But we think we've given you a pretty good indicator of this year's revenue, and we'll adjust it accordingly if anything changes on the upside.

因此，關於維吉尼亞州和美國環保署的任何調整，我們將繼續與海軍合作。我們已經考慮了哥倫比亞優先事項的影響，就像海軍對維吉尼亞的影響一樣，這只是一項正在進行的工作，因為我們正在了解海軍的所有細節。但我們認為我們已經為您提供了今年收入的一個很好的指標，如果出現任何上行變化，我們將相應地進行調整。

So just to be clear, there's nothing in there for an adjustment yet.

要先明確的是，目前還沒有任何需要調整的地方。

No. I think it's premature to put numbers in before you've got an agreement with...

不。我認為在與…達成協議之前輸入數字還為時過早。

And Audra, I think we have time for just one more question.

奧德拉，我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

We'll take that question from Peter Arment at Baird.

我們將回答貝爾德 (Baird) 的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment) 提出的問題。

Phebe, maybe just to add on and just speak on Marine. Just you've given us a lot of details on what some of the pressures were. But we've seen throughout the industry, the Sense Production Act has been used to kind of improve some capacity at Rocket Motors and munitions. Is there an opportunity? I mean I know the Navy is a really good partner and customer. Is there an opportunity for to get some relief and free up some additional resources for you at the yards?

菲比，也許只是補充一下，談談海軍陸戰隊。您已經向我們提供了有關一些壓力的詳細資訊。但我們在整個行業中都看到，《合理生產法案》已被用來提高火箭發動機和彈藥的部分產能。有機會嗎？我的意思是我知道海軍是一個非常好的合作夥伴和客戶。是否有機會在船廠獲得一些緩解並釋放一些額外資源？

So we have been pretty well resourced by the Navy and for many, many years in anticipation of particularly the Colombia and Block V. So I think from our perspective, where we really need some assistance and continued assistance from the Navy is stabilization of on-time delivery and quality coming out of the supply chain. So I think that as we go through this year, I'm sure there will be additional opportunities for us to work with the Navy and find some ability to relieve those pain points that remain in the supply chain.

因此，我們從海軍那裡獲得了相當豐富的資源，並且多年來一直在期待特別是哥倫比亞和第五號。所以我認為，從我們的角度來看，我們真正需要海軍的一些幫助和持續的幫助是穩定局勢－供應鏈的準時交貨和品質。因此，我認為，當我們度過今年時，我確信我們將有更多機會與海軍合作，並找到一些能力來緩解供應鏈中仍然存在的那些痛點。

And listen, before we leave, I just want -- this is for many of you may know, this is Jason's last earnings call. And I wanted to thank him for his excellent years of service as a CFO. He will be missed, but his work will continue at Technologies. So I'm sure all of you will join me in congratulating Jason on a superb CFO job well done over the years.

聽著，在我們離開之前，我只想──你們很多人都知道，這是傑森最後一次的財報電話會議。我要感謝他作為財務長多年來的出色服務。人們將會懷念他，但他的工作將繼續在 Technologies 工作。因此，我相信你們所有人都會和我一起祝賀 Jason 多年來出色地完成了財務長的工作。

Okay. Well, thank you all for joining our call today. As a reminder, please refer to the General Dynamics website for the fourth quarter earnings release and highlights presentation. If you have any additional questions, I can be reached at (703) 876-3152.

好的。好的，謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。謹此提醒，請參閱通用動力網站以了解第四季度收益發布和亮點演示。如果您還有任何其他問題，請致電 (703) 876-3152 與我聯絡。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。