通用動力 (GD) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the General Dynamics Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) All participants will be in listen-only mode. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Howard Rubel, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加通用動力 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）所有參與者都將處於僅監聽模式。演講者發言後，將進行問答環節。請注意，此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁霍華德·魯貝爾 (Howard Rubel)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the General Dynamics Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Any forward-looking statements made today represent our estimates regarding the company's outlook. These estimates are subject to some risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see the press release and slides that accompany this webcast, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website, investorrelations.gd.com.

謝謝接線員，大家早上好。歡迎參加通用動力 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天發表的任何前瞻性陳述均代表我們對公司前景的估計。這些估計存在一些風險和不確定性。有關這些因素的更多信息包含在該公司的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中。我們還將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非 GAAP 衡量標準的其他披露信息，包括與可比 GAAP 衡量標準的調節，請參閱本網絡廣播隨附的新聞稿和幻燈片，這些內容可在我們網站 Investorrelations.gd.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。

On the call today are Phebe Novakovic, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jason Aiken, Executive Vice President, Technologies and Chief Financial Officer. With the introductions complete, I turn the call over to Phebe.

今天參加電話會議的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Phebe Novakovic； Jason Aiken，技術執行副總裁兼首席財務官。介紹完畢後，我將電話轉給菲比。

Thank you, Howard. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for being with us. Before I discuss the quarter, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the loss of our long-time board member and Lead Director, Jim Crown. Jim has a record of distinguished service on the GD board for over 35 years. Throughout that time, Jim provided guidance to more than 5 different management teams. We mourn his passing, and our prayers are with his family.

謝謝你，霍華德。大家早上好，感謝您和我們在一起。在討論本季度之前，我想花點時間承認我們的長期董事會成員兼首席董事 Jim Crown 的去世。 Jim 在 GD 董事會擁有超過 35 年的傑出服務記錄。在此期間，Jim 為超過 5 個不同的管理團隊提供了指導。我們哀悼他的去世，我們為他的家人祈禱。

Earlier this morning, we reported earnings of $2.70 per diluted share on revenue of $10.2 billion, operating earnings of $962 million and net income of $744 million. We enjoyed revenue increases at each of our 4 business segments. Importantly, we had a 12% revenue increase across the Defense segment, with a more modest 4.6% increase at Aerospace. While revenue is up by $963 million or 10.5%, operating earnings are down $16 million and net earnings are down $22 million against last year's second quarter. So we had significant revenue increase but lower operating margin against the year-ago quarter.

今天早上早些時候，我們報告稀釋後每股收益為 2.70 美元，收入為 102 億美元，營業利潤為 9.62 億美元，淨利潤為 7.44 億美元。我們的 4 個業務部門的收入均有所增長。重要的是，我們整個國防領域的收入增長了 12%，航空航天領域的收入增長了 4.6%。與去年第二季度相比，儘管收入增長了 9.63 億美元，即 10.5%，但營業利潤下降了 1600 萬美元，淨利潤下降了 2200 萬美元。因此，與去年同期相比，我們的收入大幅增長，但營業利潤率有所下降。

From a different perspective, we beat consensus by $0.14 per share on significantly higher revenue and modestly lower operating margin than anticipated by the sell side. The earnings beat was exclusively operations-driven. We enjoyed very nice sequential improvement. Revenue was up $271 million, and operating earnings are up $24 million on identical operating margins. On a year-to-date basis, revenue of $20 billion is up $1.45 billion, or 7.8% over last year's first half. operating earnings of $1.9 billion are up less than 1% and net earnings are down $22 million, largely as a result of below-the-line items, including a higher provision for income taxes.

從不同的角度來看，我們每股比預期高出 0.14 美元，因為收入顯著高於賣方預期，營業利潤率略低於賣方預期。盈利增長完全是由運營驅動的。我們享受到非常好的連續改進。在營業利潤率相同的情況下，收入增加了 2.71 億美元，營業利潤增加了 2400 萬美元。年初至今，營收為 200 億美元，比去年上半年增長 14.5 億美元，即 7.8%。營業利潤 19 億美元，增長不到 1%，淨利潤下降 2200 萬美元，主要是由於線下項目，包括所得稅撥備增加。

As Jason will amplify, cash from operating activities and cash after capital expenditures in the quarter continued at a very good pace. For the first half, free cash flow was 123% in net income. Obviously, we are off to a very good start from a cash perspective.

正如傑森將強調的那樣，本季度經營活動產生的現金和資本支出後的現金繼續以非常好的速度增長。上半年，自由現金流占淨利潤的123%。顯然，從現金角度來看，我們有了一個良好的開端。

As is clear from the press release, we also had a powerful order quarter across the business, extending our already large backlog. Jason will provide full color around that item as well.

從新聞稿中可以清楚地看出，我們整個業務的季度訂單也很強勁，擴大了我們本已龐大的積壓訂單。 Jason 還將提供該物品周圍的全彩。

In summary, this is from a revenue perspective, a very strong quarter and a good first half. Supply chain issues and past COVID labor issues have impacted operating margins, but there is relief in sight. We expect improvement as we progress. At this point, let me ask Jason to provide some detail on our strong order activity, growing backlog and very strong cash performance as well as commentary about the Technologies group in the quarter.

總而言之，從收入角度來看，這是一個非常強勁的季度和良好的上半年。供應鏈問題和過去的新冠肺炎勞工問題影響了營業利潤，但情況有望有所緩解。我們期望隨著我們的進步而改進。現在，讓我請 Jason 提供一些有關我們強勁的訂單活動、不斷增長的積壓和非常強勁的現金業績的詳細信息，以及對本季度技術部門的評論。

Thank you, Phebe, and good morning. We had a very good quarter from an orders perspective with an overall book-to-bill ratio of 1.2:1 for the company. Order activity was strong across the board, as each segment had a book-to-bill of 1:1 or greater in the quarter. This is quite impressive in light of the strong revenue growth.

謝謝你，菲比，早上好。從訂單角度來看，我們這個季度的表現非常好，公司的整體訂單出貨比為 1.2:1。訂單活動全面強勁，本季度每個細分市場的訂單出貨比均達到 1:1 或更高。考慮到強勁的收入增長，這是相當令人印象深刻的。

Combat Systems and Aerospace did particularly well with book-to-bill of 1.4x and 1.3x, respectively. This led to record-level backlog of $91.4 billion at the end of the quarter, up 1.7% from last quarter and up 4.3% from a year ago. Our total estimated contract value, which includes options and IDIQ contracts, ended the quarter at more than $129 billion.

作戰系統和航空航天業務表現尤其出色，訂單出貨比分別為 1.4 倍和 1.3 倍。這導致本季度末積壓訂單達到創紀錄的 914 億美元，比上季度增長 1.7%，比去年同期增長 4.3%。我們估計的合同總價值（包括期權和 IDIQ 合同）在本季度結束時超過 1,290 億美元。

Turning to our cash performance for the quarter. We generated $731 million of operating cash flow, which, following our strong first quarter performance, brings us to $2.2 billion for the first 6 months of the year. After capital expenditures, our free cash flow was $519 million for the quarter and over $1.8 billion year-to-date, yielding a cash conversion rate of 123% for the first half. This conversion rate reflects continued strong cash performance in Aerospace & Technologies and a particularly strong start to the year for the Combat Systems group from payments received on our large international vehicle programs. The year-to-date results are consistent with our expectation for the year of a cash conversion rate in excess of 100%.

轉向我們本季度的現金表現。我們產生了 7.31 億美元的運營現金流，加上第一季度的強勁表現，今年前 6 個月我們的運營現金流達到 22 億美元。扣除資本支出後，我們本季度的自由現金流為 5.19 億美元，年初至今超過 18 億美元，上半年現金轉化率為 123%。這一轉換率反映了航空航天與技術領域持續強勁的現金表現，以及作戰系統集團從我們大型國際車輛項目收到的付款中取得了特別強勁的開局。年初至今的業績與我們對今年現金轉化率超過 100% 的預期一致。

Now turning to capital deployment. Capital expenditures were $212 million, or 2.1% of sales in the quarter, which brings us to 1.9% of sales for the first 6 months. Similar to last year, you should expect capital expenditures to be higher in the second half of the year, but in line with our expectation to be just under 2.5% of sales for the year.

現在轉向資本配置。資本支出為 2.12 億美元，佔本季度銷售額的 2.1%，這意味著前 6 個月的資本支出佔銷售額的 1.9%。與去年類似，您預計今年下半年的資本支出將會更高，但與我們預計佔全年銷售額的 2.5% 以下的預期一致。

Also in the quarter, we paid $360 million in dividends and repurchased approximately 1.4 million shares of stock for $288 million. That brings year-to-date repurchases to 1.8 million shares for $378 million. We also repaid $750 million of debt that matured in May and ended the quarter with a cash balance of over $1.1 billion. That brings us to a net debt position of $8.6 billion, down nearly $700 million from year-end. As a reminder, we have an additional $500 million maturing in the third quarter that we plan to repay with cash on hand.

同樣在本季度，我們支付了 3.6 億美元的股息，並以 2.88 億美元的價格回購了約 140 萬股股票。這使得年初至今回購股票數量達到 180 萬股，耗資 3.78 億美元。我們還償還了 5 月份到期的 7.5 億美元債務，本季度末現金餘額超過 11 億美元。這使我們的淨債務頭寸達到 86 億美元，比年底減少近 7 億美元。提醒一下，我們還有另外 5 億美元將於第三季度到期，我們計劃用手頭現金償還。

Our net interest expense in the quarter was $89 million compared to $95 million last year. That brings the interest expense for the first half of the year to $180 million, down from $193 million for the same period in 2022. At this point, our expectation for interest expense for the year remains unchanged at approximately $360 million. Finally, the effective tax rate for the quarter was 16%, bringing the tax rate for the first half to 16.5%. There's no change to our outlook for the full year of approximately 17%. But of course, that implies a rate in the mid-17% range for the second half of the year. To shape that for you, we'd expect the rate to be somewhat lower in the third quarter and higher in the fourth due to typical timing items.

本季度我們的淨利息支出為 8900 萬美元，而去年為 9500 萬美元。這使得今年上半年的利息支出降至 1.8 億美元，低於 2022 年同期的 1.93 億美元。目前，我們對今年利息支出的預期保持在約 3.6 億美元不變。最後，該季度的有效稅率為16%，使得上半年的稅率達到16.5%。我們對全年約 17% 的預期沒有變化。當然，這意味著今年下半年的增長率將在 17% 左右。為了幫助您實現這一目標，我們預計，由於典型的時間安排問題，第三季度的利率會有所下降，第四季度的利率會有所上升。

Now turning to operating performance and technologies. It was another solid quarter with revenue of $3.2 billion, which is up 7% over the prior year and continues to build on the strong start to the year we saw in the first quarter. In fact, each business grew year-over-year, both in the quarter and the first half. The measures implemented at Mission Systems to overcome what seems to be the new normal in the supply chain are taking effect. So we feel good about their prospects for the balance of the year.

現在轉向操作性能和技術。這是又一個穩健的季度，收入達到 32 億美元，比上年增長 7%，並繼續建立在我們第一季度強勁開局的基礎上。事實上，每項業務在本季度和上半年都同比增長。 Mission Systems 為克服供應鏈新常態而採取的措施正在生效。因此，我們對他們今年剩餘時間的前景感到樂觀。

GDIT had another solid quarter. In fact, their highest second quarter revenues since before the pandemic as they continue to deliver on their steady year-over-year growth trajectory. Operating earnings in the quarter were $283 million, yielding a margin of 8.8%. As you know, margins are driven by the mix of IT service activity and hardware volume, and in this case, were further impacted by the mix of new start programs that are driving the strong growth trajectory.

GDIT 又迎來了一個穩健的季度。事實上，他們第二季度的收入是自大流行之前以來的最高水平，因為他們繼續保持穩定的同比增長軌跡。該季度營業利潤為 2.83 億美元，利潤率為 8.8%。如您所知，利潤率是由 IT 服務活動和硬件數量共同推動的，在這種情況下，利潤率進一步受到推動強勁增長軌蹟的新啟動計劃的影響。

Backlog grew during the quarter, with the group achieving a book-to-bill ratio of 1.1:1 on solid order activity that outpaced the strong revenue growth across the business. In fact, GDIT booked the highest first-half orders they've seen since mid-2019, and their pipeline remains robust with $20 billion in submitted bids awaiting customer decision and another $81 billion in qualified opportunities identified.

本季度積壓訂單有所增長，憑藉穩定的訂單活動，集團實現了 1.1:1 的訂單出貨比，超過了整個業務的強勁收入增長。事實上，GDIT 預訂了自 2019 年中期以來最高的上半年訂單，其管道仍然強勁，已提交的投標等待客戶決定，另有 810 億美元的合格機會已確定。

Now let me turn it back to Phebe to review the other business segments and give an update on our guidance for 2023.

現在讓我回到 Phebe 來回顧一下其他業務部門，並更新我們 2023 年的指導。

Thanks, Jason. Now let me continue to review the quarter in the context of the other business segments and provide color as appropriate and guidance for the full year. First, Aerospace. Aerospace had revenue of $1.95 billion and operating earnings of $236 million with a 12.1% operating margin. Revenue was $86 million more than last year's second quarter on the strength of additional new aircraft deliveries, coupled with higher Gulfstream service center volume, partially offset by less volume in Jet Aviation's completion center. The 24 deliveries are modestly fewer than planned and are a result of supply chain issues.

謝謝，傑森。現在讓我繼續在其他業務部門的背景下回顧本季度，並提供適當的顏色和全年的指導。首先，航空航天。航空航天公司的收入為 19.5 億美元，營業利潤為 2.36 億美元，營業利潤率為 12.1%。由於新飛機交付量增加以及灣流服務中心數量增加（部分被 Jet Aviation 完工中心數量減少所抵消），收入比去年第二季度增加了 8600 萬美元。由於供應鏈問題，這 24 架飛機的交付量略低於計劃。

On the good news side of the equation, supply chain conditions are improving. We still have a significant backlog of late parts, but processes are in place to catch up, deliveries are trending positive and we have greater transparency. In short, the suppliers are more predictable and are complying with catch-up schedules. This will help both revenue and margins as we do less out-of-station work.

好消息是，供應鏈狀況正在改善。我們仍然有大量後期零件積壓，但流程已經到位，可以趕上，交付趨勢良好，而且我們有更大的透明度。簡而言之，供應商更具可預測性，並且遵守趕工計劃。隨著我們減少外出工作，這將有助於收入和利潤。

Operating earnings of $236 million are $2 million behind last year's second quarter as a result of a 60 basis point reduction in operating margin. Operating margin in the quarter was off largely as a result of the supply chain issues and higher R&D expense. The shortage of parts continues to cause significant out-of-station work, impacting efficiency. As mentioned earlier, we see improvement here, and that should help as we go through the second half. Sequentially, Aerospace had a 3.2% increase in revenue and a 3.1% increase in operating earnings on identical operating margins.

由於營業利潤率下降了 60 個基點，營業利潤為 2.36 億美元，比去年第二季度低 200 萬美元。本季度營業利潤率下降主要是由於供應鏈問題和研發費用增加。零件短缺繼續導致大量異地工作，影響效率。正如前面提到的，我們看到了這裡的進步，這應該有助於我們度過下半年。隨後，航空航天部門在營業利潤率相同的情況下，收入增長了 3.2%，營業利潤增長了 3.1%。

Moving to the demand environment. Aerospace had a very good quarter with a book-to-bill of 1.3:1 in dollar terms and even higher for Gulfstream aircraft alone. Vibrant sales activity and strong pipeline replenishment were evident in the quarter. The U.S., particularly large corporations, led the way with the Mid East and Asia participating to a lesser degree.

轉向需求環境。航空航天業的季度表現非常出色，以美元計算，訂單出貨比為 1.3:1，僅灣流飛機的訂單出貨比就更高。本季度銷售活動活躍，渠道補充強勁。美國，尤其是大公司，處於領先地位，中東和亞洲的參與程度較低。

The 700 flight test and certification program continues to progress. The aircraft design, manufacturing and the overall program are very mature. However, we now target certification in the fourth quarter and see no major obstacles in our path. To give you a little more insight, we will complete our FAA-type inspection authorization in September. This is a fly we are required to do pursuant to FAA requirement and plan. When we are finished, the FAA will fly some confirmatory flight tests to verify portions of our results. That will be followed by a brief period of paper submission, followed by FAA review.

700次飛行測試和認證計劃繼續取得進展。飛機設計、製造和總體方案都非常成熟。然而，我們現在的目標是在第四季度獲得認證，並且認為我們的道路上沒有重大障礙。為了讓您有更多的了解，我們將於 9 月份完成 FAA 型式檢驗授權。這是我們根據美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 的要求和計劃必須進行的一次飛行。當我們完成後，美國聯邦航空局將進行一些驗證性飛行測試，以驗證我們的部分結果。接下來將是一段簡短的論文提交時間，然後是美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 審查。

As most of you know, we had planned to deliver considerable number of G700s in the third and fourth quarters. That has now flipped into the fourth quarter. We now expect to deliver 27 aircraft in the third quarter, with a rapid increase in the fourth quarter deliveries. In short, we are making good progress under difficult circumstances. However, we expect to deliver 5 to 6 fewer aircraft than the 145 we forecast at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, we expect more service revenue than initially anticipated. I'll have more on this later in my remarks.

眾所周知，我們原計劃在第三季度和第四季度交付大量 G700。現在已經進入第四季度了。我們目前預計第三季度交付27架飛機，第四季度交付量將快速增加。總之，我們在困難的情況下取得了良好的進展。然而，我們預計交付的飛機數量將比年初預測的 145 架少 5 到 6 架。另一方面，我們預計服務收入將高於最初預期。我將在稍後的發言中對此進行更多討論。

Next, Combat Systems. Combat had revenue of $1.92 billion, up a stunning 15.5% over the year ago quarter with growth in each of the business units. Earnings of $251 million are up 2.4%. Margins at 13% represent a 170 basis point reduction over the year-ago quarter. So we saw powerful revenue performance, coupled with more modest operating margin in large part attributable to mix. The increase in revenue came from international vehicle programs at both Land Systems and European Land Systems. OTS has also enjoyed higher artillery program volume, including programs to expand production capacity for the U.S. government. These programs carry dilutive margins, but will result in more production and accretive margins over time.

接下來，戰鬥系統。 Combat 的收入為 19.2 億美元，與去年同期相比增長了 15.5%，每個業務部門都有所增長。盈利 2.51 億美元，增長 2.4%。利潤率為 13%，較去年同期下降 170 個基點。因此，我們看到了強勁的收入表現，加上營業利潤率較低，這在很大程度上歸因於混合。收入的增長來自陸地系統和歐洲陸地系統的國際車輛項目。 OTS 還享有較高的火砲項目數量，包括為美國政府擴大生產能力的項目。這些計劃會攤薄利潤，但隨著時間的推移，將帶來更多的產量和增值的利潤。

On a sequential basis, revenue is up $168 million or 9.6%, and earnings are up $6 million or 2.4% on a 100 basis point reduction in margin for the reasons described. Year-to-date, revenue is up $339 million or 10.1%, and operating earnings are up $24 million or 5.1%. We also experienced very strong order performance. Orders in the quarter resulted in a 1.4:1 book-to-bill, evidencing strong demand for munitions and domestic combat vehicles. International programs also contributed to the strong book-to-bill. So a very exciting first half for Combat.

由於上述原因，在利潤率減少 100 個基點的情況下，收入環比增長 1.68 億美元，即 9.6%，收益增長 600 萬美元，即 2.4%。今年迄今為止，收入增長了 3.39 億美元，即 10.1%，營業利潤增長了 2400 萬美元，即 5.1%。我們的訂單表現也非常強勁。本季度的訂單訂單比為 1.4:1，表明對彈藥和國產戰車的強勁需求。國際項目也對強勁的訂單出貨量做出了貢獻。所以上半場的戰鬥非常令人興奮。

Turning to Marine Systems. Once again, our shipbuilding group is demonstrating impressive revenue growth. Marine Systems revenue of $3.1 billion is up $408 million, a robust 15.4% against the year-ago quarter. Columbia-class construction and engineering volume drove the growth, and to a lesser degree, TAO growth. Operating earnings are $235 million, up $24 million over the year-ago quarter, with a 30 basis point decrement in operating margin. We anticipate that all of our yards are now well positioned for slow but steady incremental margin growth over time with fewer perturbations.

轉向海洋系統。我們的造船集團再次展現出令人印象深刻的收入增長。船舶系統收入為 31 億美元，同比增長 4.08 億美元，同比增長 15.4%。哥倫比亞級建築和工程量推動了增長，並在較小程度上推動了 TAO 的增長。營業利潤為 2.35 億美元，比去年同期增加 2400 萬美元，營業利潤率下降 30 個基點。我們預計，我們所有的船廠現在都處於有利地位，隨著時間的推移，利潤率將緩慢但穩定地增長，且干擾較少。

On a sequential basis, revenue was up $67 million or 2.2%, and operating earnings are up $24 million or 11.4% on a 60 basis point improvement in margin. For the first half, revenue was up $749 million or 14.1% and earnings are up $24 million or 5.7%. So a good quarter and first half.

環比收入增長 6700 萬美元，即 2.2%，營業利潤增長 2400 萬美元，即 11.4%，利潤率提高了 60 個基點。上半年，收入增長 7.49 億美元，增長 14.1%，盈利增長 2400 萬美元，增長 5.7%。所以一個季度和上半場表現都不錯。

So let me move on to give you our updated forecast for the year. The figures I'm about to give you are all compared to our January forecast, which I won't repeat. There is, however, a chart with respect to all of this, which will be posted on our website, which should be helpful. In Aerospace, revenue will be down almost $200 million due to the 5 or 6 fewer aircraft deliveries, offset in part by stronger service activity. So look for revenue of $10.2 billion. We also expect margins to be down from a projected 14.6% to 14.1%. This implies operating earnings of $1.4 billion.

因此，讓我繼續向您提供我們今年的最新預測。我即將向大家提供的數據都是與我們一月份的預測進行比較的，我不再重複。然而，有一個關於所有這些的圖表，它將發佈在我們的網站上，這應該會有所幫助。在航空航天領域，由於飛機交付量減少 5 或 6 架，收入將減少近 2 億美元，但服務活動的增強在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。因此，預計收入為 102 億美元。我們還預計利潤率將從預計的 14.6% 降至 14.1%。這意味著營業利潤為 14 億美元。

With respect to the Defense businesses, Combat Systems will have revenue of $400 million to $500 million higher than previously projected due to new program starts and an increased threat environment. So look for the total revenue of around $7.75 billion. Margins will be down 50 basis points from 14.7% to 14.2% on mix. All-in, operating earnings will be up $25 million over the previous forecast.

在國防業務方面，由於新計劃的啟動和威脅環境的增加，作戰系統公司的收入將比之前預計的增加 4 億至 5 億美元。因此，預計總收入約為 77.5 億美元。混合利潤率將從 14.7% 下降 50 個基點至 14.2%。總而言之，營業利潤將比之前的預測增加 2500 萬美元。

Marine Systems revenue should be up $900 million or $1 billion on acceleration of work throughout the yards. This is a leading indicator of improving efficiency. So we will have annual revenue around $11.8 billion with an operating margin around 7.6% for the reasons I have previously described to you. Operating earnings for the year should be up $20 million over the previous forecast. Technologies revenue will be $100 million to $200 million better than previous guidance, but operating margin will be 9.4%, 10 basis points lower than previously forecast. So for the group, we expect annual revenue of about $12.7 billion, with operating earnings around $1.2 billion, steady with prior guidance.

由於整個造船廠工作的加速，船舶系統公司的收入將增加 9 億美元或 10 億美元。這是提高效率的領先指標。因此，我們的年收入將達到 118 億美元左右，營業利潤率將達到 7.6% 左右，原因我之前已經向大家描述過。今年的營業利潤應比之前的預測增加 2000 萬美元。技術收入將比之前的預期高 1 億至 2 億美元，但營業利潤率為 9.4%，比之前的預測低 10 個基點。因此，對於該集團而言，我們預計年收入約為 127 億美元，營業利潤約為 12 億美元，與之前的指引持平。

There is some opportunity here to capture 10 to 20 basis points of margin. On a company-wide basis, we see annual revenue higher than our initial guidance and an overall operating margin about 40 basis points lower. So look for total revenue to be around $42.45 billion, about $1.2 billion up from previous guidance. Operating earnings should be down modestly from prior guidance, but below-the-line items and lower share count will leave our EPS guidance the same.

這裡有一些機會獲得 10 到 20 個基點的保證金。在全公司範圍內，我們預計年收入將高於我們最初的指導，而整體營業利潤率將下降約 40 個基點。因此，預計總收入約為 424.5 億美元，比之前的指引高出約 12 億美元。營業利潤應比之前的指導小幅下降，但線下項目和較少的股票數量將使我們的每股收益指導保持不變。

One final note before I conclude my comments. Howard has informed the company that he intends to retire later this year. So this will be his last earnings call. We are grateful for the excellent work that Howard has done since joining our team. I hope many of you will join me in congratulating Howard on a job well done. Nicole Shelton, who some of you know already, will be taking over the mantle with the third-quarter call. That concludes my remarks, and we will be happy to take your questions.

在結束我的評論之前，還有最後一點說明。霍華德已通知公司，他打算在今年晚些時候退休。所以這將是他最後一次財報電話會議。我們感謝霍華德自加入我們團隊以來所做的出色工作。我希望你們中的許多人能和我一起祝賀霍華德的出色工作。妮可·謝爾頓（Nicole Shelton），你們中的一些人已經認識了，她將在第三季度電話會議中接過這一職責。我的發言到此結束，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you for your kind words and friendship. It's been a pleasure and a great experience to have had the opportunity to represent General Dynamics to the investment community these nearly 6 years. I have grown working side by side with many of the talented people of this tremendous enterprise. I look forward to working with Nicole over the next few months to ensure there are proper introductions and a seamless transition. There will be time ahead to say goodbye, but today, I want to say thank you. Now let's turn to the question-and-answer period of this call. As a reminder, we ask participants to ask 1 question and 1 follow-up so that everyone has a chance to participate. Operator, could you please remind participants how to enter the queue?

感謝您的客氣話和友誼。近六年來有機會代表通用動力公司面對投資界，我感到很高興，也是一次很棒的經歷。我與這個偉大企業的許多人才並肩工作，共同成長。我期待著在接下來的幾個月裡與妮可合作，以確保有適當的介紹和無縫過渡。雖然還有時間說再見，但今天，我想說聲謝謝。現在讓我們進入本次電話會議的問答環節。提醒一下，我們要求參與者提出 1 個問題和 1 次跟進，以便每個人都有機會參與。接線員，您能提醒一下參加者如何進入隊列嗎？

(Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question press star, then the #1 on your telephone keypad. And again, we ask that you please limit Your first question comes from the line of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明） 此時，我想提醒大家，為了提問，請按星號，然後按電話鍵盤上的#1。再次，我們要求您限制您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Thanks very much. Congratulations, Howard. Thanks for everything. Just on the new Aerospace guidance, I guess, maybe if you could walk through how you thought about the setup for that. And I appreciate that this is mainly a timing issue and that any airplanes that don't get delivered in '23 can kind of move to '24. But just kind of the way we get level set. With 27 deliveries in the third quarter, we're talking about something quite high to get to 140-ish for the year. And also, I mean, with 27 deliveries, I assume we'll be looking at a margin in Q3 that's probably still in the 12s. And so also getting to 14.1% for the year. Maybe you can talk a little bit about the margin -- the initial margin accretion from the new aircraft and what that contribution will be to the total deliveries.

非常感謝。恭喜你，霍華德。感謝一切。我想，就新的航空航天指南而言，也許您可以詳細說明一下您對此設置的看法。我明白這主要是一個時間問題，任何未在 23 年交付的飛機都可能會轉移到 24 年。但這只是我們設定水平的一種方式。第三季度交付量為 27 架，我們正在討論今年將達到 140 架左右的目標。而且，我的意思是，隨著 27 次交付，我認為我們在第三季度的利潤率可能仍在 12 左右。今年的增長率也達到 14.1%。也許你可以談談利潤——新飛機的初始利潤增加以及對總交付量的貢獻。

Yes. So I think you've put your finger on [another] issue. So what we have given you with respect to Aerospace is Gulfstream's plan, and the guidance that we gave you reflects their plan. Our January guidance, just for context, contemplated a very high Q4 delivery rate. That rate increased with the certification delay on the 700. 700 will be fully built and ready for delivery.

是的。所以我認為你已經把矛頭指向了[另一個]問題。因此，我們向您提供的關於航空航天的是灣流的計劃，我們向您提供的指導反映了他們的計劃。我們一月份的指導（僅供參考）考慮了非常高的第四季度交付率。隨著 700 的認證延遲，這一比率有所增加。700 將完全製造並準備交付。

Remember, too, our new planes are all built in purpose-built facilities. We've expanded our wing line. In short, we facilitized for increased production. And finally, the fact that we have planes -- and you can see this from the increase in inventory that are awaiting parts -- we now have a schedule, and all of that taken together allows us to -- will give us the ability to deliver.

還要記住，我們的新飛機都是在專用設施中建造的。我們擴大了機翼產品線。簡而言之，我們為增加產量提供了便利。最後，我們擁有飛機這一事實——您可以從等待零件的庫存增加中看到這一點——我們現在有一個時間表，所有這些加在一起使我們能夠——將使我們有能力遞送。

With respect to margin, we've got a number of higher-margin airplanes, as you would expect, delivering in the fourth quarter. So that provides significant uplift. So we kind of explained how we intend to get the revenue through the deliveries, and the margin is really a question of mix of the higher deliveries -- of higher-margin -- greater deliveries to higher-margin airplanes.

就利潤率而言，正如您所期望的那樣，我們有許多利潤率較高的飛機將在第四季度交付。這提供了顯著的提升。因此，我們解釋了我們打算如何通過交付獲得收入，而利潤率實際上是更高交付量——更高利潤率——更多交付給更高利潤率飛機的混合問題。

Okay. And just a follow-up real quick on this topic. The 27 deliveries in Q3 would be down year-on-year. And so in terms of -- there's the issue of the G700 certification, which we're all kind of looking at and it's hard to analyze. But just for the non-G700 deliveries, is there any risk around what the plan was there and what Gulfstream expects to do?

好的。關於這個話題的快速跟進。第三季度交付量為27架，同比下降。因此，就 G700 認證問題而言，我們都在關注這個問題，但很難分析。但僅就非 G700 交付而言，該計劃以及灣流預計將採取的行動是否存在任何風險？

So as I noted in my remarks, our supply chain is increasing its transparency, improving its processes. And we have reliable -- increasingly reliable schedules. That said, they're more likely to anticipate more catch-up in the fourth quarter, which will allow us to complete a number of those airplanes, but they're still impacting the third quarter deliveries.

正如我在發言中指出的那樣，我們的供應鏈正在提高透明度，改進流程。我們有可靠的、越來越可靠的時間表。也就是說，他們更有可能預計第四季度會有更多的追趕，這將使我們能夠完成其中一些飛機，但它們仍然影響第三季度的交付量。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard from Vertical Research.

您的下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的羅伯特·斯塔拉德（Robert Stallard）。

I can't believe Howard's retiring. He's so young.

我不敢相信霍華德要退役了。他這麼年輕。

That's what we say.

這就是我們所說的。

Anyway, I've got a couple of questions for you, Phebe. First of all, on the revised Aerospace guidance. You mentioned that you've increased your expectations for services for the full year. I was wondering if you could square this with what we've been seeing in Biz Jet flight hours year-to-date, which have been down year-on-year. And then secondly, a great Combat Systems order quarter, but how do you expect these orders to flow through to revenue growth over the next couple of years?

不管怎樣，我有幾個問題要問你，菲比。首先，關於修訂後的航空航天指南。您提到您提高了對全年服務的期望。我想知道您是否可以將此與我們今年迄今為止在 Biz Jet 飛行時數中看到的情況進行比較，該飛行時數逐年下降。其次，戰鬥系統訂單季度表現出色，但您預計這些訂單在未來幾年將如何推動收入增長？

So our flying hours are not down. But I think, too, the way to think about our service business is we expect service to increase as the fleet of airplanes -- new airplanes in the market increases. We expect steady growth in service, and we haven't seen any impact so far on any change in flying hours. I said that mostly other people flying hours.

所以我們的飛行時間並沒有減少。但我也認為，考慮我們的服務業務的方式是，我們預計服務會隨著飛機機隊（市場上新飛機）的增加而增加。我們預計服務將穩定增長，而且到目前為止，我們還沒有看到飛行時間的任何變化產生任何影響。我說的大多是其他人飛行的時間。

With respect to Combat, the world has become a less safe place, and that's reflected in the increased demand, both internationally and in the United States. So we expect the -- this year to be considerably higher than last year. And we'll give you clarity around 2024 in January. But as you may recall, we had anticipated flat to down growth in this business segment. Clearly, that trajectory has changed. We won't be able to -- we can't quantify it right now, but we'll give you more clarity on that.

就戰鬥而言，世界已經變得不太安全，這反映在國際和美國需求的增加上。因此，我們預計今年的數字將大大高於去年。我們將在 2024 年 1 月左右為您提供詳細信息。但正如您可能還記得的那樣，我們預計該業務部門的增長將持平或下降。顯然，這一軌跡已經改變。我們現在無法量化它，但我們會讓你更清楚地了解這一點。

Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛·施特勞斯。

Thanks. So back on the G700, would you expect to make up the missed deliveries this year? Would you expect them to make those up next year? So does the -- I think, what was -- 170 go higher in terms of what you're expecting for deliveries next year?

謝謝。那麼回到G700，您希望彌補今年錯過的交付嗎？你希望他們明年能彌補這些嗎？那麼，我想，170 輛的銷量是否比您預計明年的交付量還要高？

Well, we'll get into next year, next year. But the deliveries are lower, are -- 5 to 6 deliveries that won't deliver this year are not 700s. So it's other airplanes.

好吧，我們將進入明年，明年。但交付量較低，今年無法交付的 5 到 6 輛不是 700 輛。所以這是其他飛機。

Okay. Got it. And then as a follow-up, quick follow-up. Combat Systems, you mentioned this during the prepared remarks, the lower margins in the quarter, and then it looks like you're forecasting a bit of a snapback in the second half of the year. But still a fair amount lower than what you were initially forecasting. Can you just give a little bit more detail on the mix and how that's impacting? Thanks.

好的。知道了。然後作為後續行動，快速跟進。戰鬥系統公司，您在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，即本季度的利潤率較低，然後看起來您預計下半年會出現一些回升。但仍比您最初的預測低很多。您能否更詳細地介紹一下這種組合及其影響？謝謝。

Yes. So mix in this instance is comprised of 2 elements. One is the capacity expansion, which I noted carries lower margin. And then it's really the transition from more mature programs to newer programs, and those margins will improve as we come down our learning curves.

是的。因此，本例中的 mix 由 2 個元素組成。一是產能擴張，我指出這會帶來較低的利潤率。然後，這實際上是從更成熟的項目到更新的項目的過渡，隨著我們降低學習曲線，這些利潤將會提高。

Your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr from TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

Terrific. So -- and Howard, let me say, you've been terrific to work with and a great friend, and I wish you all the best. So Phebe, how many 700s are you assuming to deliver in the fourth quarter? And what kind of margin for error is there in terms of timing? In terms of...

了不起。所以，霍華德，讓我說，與你一起工作非常棒，也是一位好朋友，我祝你一切順利。那麼 Phebe，您預計第四季度交付多少 700 輛？就時間而言，有多大的誤差範圍？按照...

We will deliver 19 G700s, and we're not going to tell you margins will be accretive. Nice try. Why have we ever give you margins by your point?

我們將交付 19 台 G700，並且我們不會告訴您利潤將會增加。不錯的嘗試。為什麼我們要根據你的觀點給你留餘地？

No, I just -- so -- and next -- I didn't mean -- I meant how much time-wise, a cushion you have in the schedule if the certification slips.

不，我只是 - 那麼 - 接下來 - 我的意思不是 - 我的意思是在時間方面有多少，如果認證失敗的話，你可以在時間表中獲得緩衝。

You mean the schedule for the 700 certification?

你是說700認證的時間表嗎？

Yes. I mean, is your best guess that you certify in the middle of November, in middle of December, which could impact the amount number of planes you get out the door.

是的。我的意思是，您最好猜測您在 11 月中旬或 12 月中旬進行認證，這可能會影響您出港的飛機數量。

So what we've told you is our best estimate right now of the certification process. Clearly, if it comes very late in the year, we'll deliver airplanes, but we won't necessarily be able to deliver all of them. That will bleed over into the best first quarter GD has ever had in its history. But we're not anticipating that at the moment. So I don't have real good clarity because we don't know yet with precision on when in the fourth quarter. But our best estimate, what we're planning for right now is that we will be able to have sufficient time to deliver these airplanes. Remember, they're built -- the pilot training will start, and that will help significantly with deliveries.

所以我們告訴您的是我們目前對認證過程的最佳估計。顯然，如果今年很晚，我們會交付飛機，但我們不一定能夠交付所有飛機。這將成為 GD 歷史上最好的第一季度。但我們目前預計不會出現這種情況。所以我不太清楚，因為我們還不知道第四季度的具體時間。但我們最好的估計，我們現在計劃的是，我們將能夠有足夠的時間來交付這些飛機。請記住，它們已經建成 - 飛行員培訓將開始，這將對交付有很大幫助。

Got it. And with all of these deliveries in the fourth quarter, maybe, Jason, can you give us some color in terms of the cash flow profile? I mean do we have just a momentous fourth quarter cash? And is there any upside to the 105%?

知道了。鑑於第四季度的所有這些交付，傑森，您能否給我們一些有關現金流狀況的信息？我的意思是我們第四季度只有大量現金嗎？ 105% 有什麼好處嗎？

The way I think you need to think about that, Cai, is when it comes to Gulfstream, we have a sequence of progress payments that occurs from the time of the initial order through delivery and entry into service. So the vast majority of the cash receipts associated with an aircraft order and aircraft delivery are in-house before the actual airplane is delivered. So while there's obviously an implied set of progress payments, final delivery payments would occur at that point. When those aircraft enter into service, it's not an outsized level of cash, 1 way or the other.

蔡，我認為你需要考慮這個問題，對於灣流，我們有一系列的進度付款，從最初的訂單到交付和投入使用。因此，在實際飛機交付之前，與飛機訂單和飛機交付相關的絕大多數現金收入都是內部的。因此，雖然顯然存在一組隱含的進度付款，但最終交付付款將在此時發生。當這些飛機投入使用時，無論哪種方式，現金都不會過多。

So the bigger issue is you've got an ongoing sequence and series of progress payments associated with all of the orders in the order book. And with the significant order volume that we've had over the past 2, 2.5 years, that is sort of a machine that's just churning those progress payments over time as we continue to make progress on each of those airplane builds as well as the certification process.

因此，更大的問題是您需要與訂單簿中的所有訂單相關的持續序列和一系列進度付款。過去 2、2.5 年裡，我們的訂單量很大，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們在每架飛機的製造和認證方面不斷取得進展，這就像一台機器，不斷地攪拌著這些進度付款。過程。

Your next question comes from the line of Myles Walton from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

And congratulations on retirement, Howard. In terms of the -- the outlook for Aerospace orders, could you just comment, Phebe, what you're seeing for the rest of the year? Obviously, the second quarter was probably helped a little bit because of the anomaly you mentioned in March around the banking crisis. And then also if you can comment on churn in the backlog, I think your net book-to-bill was a couple of hundred million lighter than your gross book-to-bill. So maybe just talk about any cancellations.

祝賀你退休，霍華德。就航空航天訂單的前景而言，Phebe，您能否評論一下您對今年剩餘時間的看法？顯然，由於您在三月份提到的圍繞銀行危機的異常現象，第二季度可能有所幫助。然後，如果您可以對積壓中的流失發表評論，我認為您的淨訂單出貨量比總訂單出貨量少了幾億。所以也許只是談論任何取消。

Yes. So the demand in the second quarter was at the same level as the demand in the first quarter. It felt very, very similar. As you've quite rightly noted, we had a 3-week hiatus coincident with the banking crisis. But the demand levels have remained about the same. And as we enter Q3, we have a very strong pipeline. And so far, activity is quite good in Q3. We had 6 defaults in the quarter, but nothing that is notable to us. And the backlog is holding up very, very well.

是的。因此第二季度的需求與第一季度的需求處於同一水平。感覺非常非常相似。正如您非常正確地指出的那樣，我們因銀行危機而暫停了三週。但需求水平基本保持不變。當我們進入第三季度時，我們擁有非常強大的管道。到目前為止，第三季度的活動相當不錯。本季度我們有 6 次違約，但沒有什麼值得注意的。而且積壓的情況非常非常好。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Gursky from Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Jason Gursky。

Congrats, Howard. I look forward to getting some postcards from -- or in distant places.

恭喜，霍華德。我期待著從——或遙遠的地方收到一些明信片。

Phebe, just sticking with Gulfstream for 1 last question, hopefully here. On the pipeline and kind of what you see from a bottom-up perspective, can you give us a little flavor from a geographic perspective and customer type? How is high net worth doing versus corporate? And are we beginning to see some green shoots in geographies outside the United States?

Phebe，我只是堅持灣流的最後一個問題，希望在這裡。關於管道以及您從自下而上的角度看到的情況，您能否從地理角度和客戶類型給我們介紹一下？高淨值人士與企業相比表現如何？我們是否開始在美國以外的地區看到一些萌芽？

Yes. So the United States was strong, has been strong, particularly with the Fortune 500. I would say that high net worth is about the same. And the Mid East is pretty good, as is Asia, but it's really the Fortune 500 that are really driving the demand. These are long-established customers as well as new Fortune 500 customers.

是的。所以美國曾經很強大，一直很強大，特別是財富500強。我想說，高淨值人士也差不多。中東和亞洲都相當不錯，但真正推動需求的是《財富》500 強企業。這些是歷史悠久的客戶，也有財富 500 強的新客戶。

Okay. Great. And then Jason, over to you on Technologies. It sounds like you've got a robust pipeline of opportunities in front of you. Can you talk a little bit about the mix of that? We had some margin degradation here in the quarter. I'm just kind of curious, as you look out at that pipeline, do you see anything that would suggest we're going to see a departure in any -- either higher or lower from a margin perspective as you bid on this work and bring it in?

好的。偉大的。然後傑森，請介紹技術。聽起來您面前有大量的機會。您能談談其中的混合嗎？本季度我們的利潤率有所下降。我只是有點好奇，當你觀察這條管道時，你是否看到任何表明我們會看到任何偏離的東西——當你對這項工作進行投標時，從利潤的角度來看，無論是更高還是更低，把它帶進來？

I think bottom line, the short answer to that is no. We don't see any fundamental change, as we've talked about. You're going to see some level of aggregate margin perturbation between the 2 businesses, the IT services side being somewhat lower obviously, than the hardware side. I think in this quarter, we saw it a little more pronounced because as we're seeing this turn for the group to a stronger growth level, a lot of that is driven by not only new starts, but it's actually replacement contracts, or I should say, recompetes that we've won. So you had in the prior year the trailing off of very mature-level legacy contracts that were closing out at higher margin rates as compared to the entry-level margin rates we're seeing now. So that's sort of the driver of the year-over-year delta that you're seeing. But barring any major structural shift between the percentage contributions of the IT services versus defense hardware parts of the business, we continue to expect this to be a low double-digit margin business over time.

我認為底線是，簡短的答案是否定的。正如我們所討論的，我們沒有看到任何根本性的變化。您將看到這兩個業務之間存在某種程度的總利潤擾動，IT 服務方面明顯低於硬件方面。我認為在本季度，我們看到這一點更加明顯，因為當我們看到該集團轉向更強勁的增長水平時，其中很大一部分不僅是由新開工推動的，而且實際上是替換合同，或者我應該說，重賽我們贏了。因此，去年非常成熟的遺留合約逐漸減少，與我們現在看到的入門級保證金率相比，這些合約以更高的保證金率結束。這就是您所看到的逐年增量的驅動因素。但除非 IT 服務與國防硬件業務的百分比貢獻之間出現任何重大結構性轉變，否則我們仍然預計，隨著時間的推移，該業務的利潤率將保持在兩位數的低位。

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Epstein from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅布·愛潑斯坦 (Rob Epstein)。

And ditto Cai's remarks, Howard, you will be missed. It's been a pleasure working with you. So quickly, a couple of questions. On Technologies, what should we be looking for? I mean, sometimes the contracts there aren't as obvious in the horizon. So Jason, what should we be looking to file for in the second half of the year as potential things you guys could win?

蔡的言論也是如此，霍華德，我們會想念你的。很高興與您合作。這麼快，有幾個問題。在技​​術方面，我們應該尋找什麼？我的意思是，有時那裡的合同並不那麼明顯。那麼傑森，我們應該在下半年申請什麼作為你們可能贏得的潛在東西？

Ron, it's always tough in this business to point to a singular example or a contract that is going to drive the overall business. As you know, it's a wide portfolio of literally thousands of contracts. I think -- the thing I would tell you is, when you look at Mission Systems on the 1 hand, they are really seeing strong support in their, what I'd call their Navy platform support businesses, whether it's the strategic side or the mission computing side. They're also seeing really great support in their cyber portfolio. So those are 2 areas I would expect to see continued growth in particular out of that business.

羅恩，在這個行業中，要指出一個單一的例子或一份能夠推動整個業務的合同總是很困難。如您所知，這是一個包含數千份合同的廣泛投資組合。我想——我要告訴你的是，一方面，當你看任務系統時，他們確實看到了他們的海軍平台支持業務的強大支持，無論是戰略方面還是技術方面。任務計算端。他們還在網絡產品組合中看到了真正的大力支持。因此，我預計這兩個領域將持續增長，尤其是該業務。

When you look at GDIT, they're seeing strength in all 3 of their customer segments: the defense, the intelligence community and the Fed SIV side. So really good across-the-board support in GDIT. And I think if I could point to any 1 thing in particular on that side of the portfolio, we've talked for the past few weeks, a couple of months about some selective technology investments they've been making to accelerate their growth, and we're seeing that really start to take hold.

當您查看 GDIT 時，您會發現他們在所有 3 個客戶群中都具有優勢：國防、情報界和美聯儲 SIV 方面。 GDIT 提供了非常好的全面支持。我想，如果我能特別指出投資組合這一方面的任何一件事，我們在過去幾週、幾個月裡一直在討論他們為加速增長而進行的一些選擇性技術投資，並且我們看到這確實開始流行。

And of course, we're talking about things like artificial intelligence, machine learning, hybrid cloud, Zero Trust and so on. And that's really starting to bear fruit. We've seen already several hundred million dollars worth of award wins as well as organic growth on existing contracts that's resulting directly from those investments. They've got some $7 billion in change in post-submittal submissions that are awaiting award decisions. And they've got another 20-plus, I think, between $20 billion, $25 billion of opportunities in the pipeline that are directly tied to those targeted investments. So I think some really intelligent capital allocation over there at GDIT to try and drive that growth, and we'd expect to see the results of that continue in the second half of the year and beyond.

當然，我們談論的是人工智能、機器學習、混合雲、零信任等。這確實開始取得成果。我們已經贏得了價值數億美元的獎項，以及這些投資直接帶來的現有合同的有機增長。他們在提交後提交的材料中獲得了約 70 億美元的變更，正在等待裁決結果。我認為他們還有另外 20 多個價值 200 億至 250 億美元的機會正在醞釀中，這些機會與這些目標投資直接相關。因此，我認為 GDIT 會進行一些非常明智的資本配置，以嘗試推動這種增長，我們預計將在今年下半年及以後看到這種結果。

Okay. Great. And then maybe 1 follow-on for Phebe. When we think about Aero, when things start to normalize, right, supply chain kind of gets back to a normal cadence and all that, what should we be thinking about broadly as like a realistic margin target?

好的。偉大的。然後也許是 Phebe 的 1 個後續作品。當我們考慮航空時，當事情開始正常化時，供應鏈恢復到正常節奏等等，我們應該廣泛考慮什麼，就像現實的利潤目標一樣？

We're thinking in the higher teens when we get on a steady state with upside potential.

當我們進入具有上升潛力的穩定狀態時，我們會考慮在十幾歲的時候。

Your next question comes from the line of Louie DiPalma from William Blair.

你的下一個問題來自威廉·布萊爾的路易·迪帕爾瑪。

And Howard, thank you for your deep aerospace defense expertise in your current position and your former position on the sell side. Your high standards raised the level of those around you.

霍華德，感謝您在當前職位和以前的賣方職位上所提供的深厚的航空航天防禦專業知識。你的高標準提高了你周圍人的水平。

For Jason, for the Army's CHS-6 $8 billion recompete that should be announced, I think, very soon. GD Mission Solutions is teaming with GDIT. Do you feel these synergistic joint bids between IT and Mission will become more common and a significant strategic advantage for you? And could it help return the overall technology segment to mid-single-digit growth over the long term?

對於傑森來說，對於陸軍的 CHS-6 耗資 80 億美元的重新競賽，我認為應該很快就會宣布。 GD Mission Solutions 正在與 GDIT 合作。您認為 IT 和 Mission 之間的這些協同聯合競標是否會變得更加普遍，並且對您來說是一個重要的戰略優勢？從長遠來看，它能否幫助整個技術領域恢復到中個位數增長？

Yes. And bottom line answer, you kind of hit the nail on the head there. We absolutely expect the synergistic benefits of these 2 businesses working together to be to our benefit over the long run. It's -- the predicate for all that is that what we've seen both in the customer demand environment, what they're requiring in terms of end-to-end solutions, including both software, services and the hardware elements of what we provide. We're seeing the peer group migrate that way with some of their M&A activities that you've seen in the market. And so, we believe that is the thesis that we'll see play out.

是的。最重要的是，你的回答擊中了要害。從長遠來看，我們絕對期望這兩家企業合作所產生的協同效益對我們有利。這一切的前提是我們在客戶需求環境中看到的，他們對端到端解決方案的要求，包括我們提供的軟件、服務和硬件元素。我們看到同行群體通過您在市場上看到的一些併購活動以這種方式遷移。因此，我們相信這就是我們將看到的論點。

You noted CHS-6, we're obviously participating in and anticipating that resolution to that competition. We've seen that program migrate over time from 1 that was traditionally very much focused on high-end, customized, ruggedized hardened-type defense hardware to 1 that is a combination of that type of capability as well as a more traditional, sort of off-the-shelf catalog-type product. And so we believe that having the attributes of both GDIT and Mission Systems involved in that program would be the best suited to serve our customer there. So that's just 1 good example of it. But absolutely, we see that over time. And as far as long-term growth rates, we'll have to see where this leads. Right now, we continue to track low- to mid-single digit, but we'll see if we can't get some juice out of that over time.

您提到了 CHS-6，我們顯然正在參與並期待該競賽的解決方案。我們已經看到，隨著時間的推移，該計劃從傳統上非常注重高端、定制、堅固耐用的強化型防禦硬件的 1 遷移到結合了此類功能和更傳統的、某種類型的功能的 1。現成的目錄型產品。因此，我們相信該計劃中包含 GDIT 和任務系統的屬性將最適合為我們的客戶提供服務。這只是其中的一個很好的例子。但絕對的是，隨著時間的推移，我們會看到這一點。就長期增長率而言，我們必須看看這會導致什麼結果。目前，我們繼續追踪中低個位數的數據，但隨著時間的推移，我們將看看是否能從中獲得一些收益。

And your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Howard, exactly what Louie said, and then thank you for being such a great colleague and a teacher to me and all those around you, so thank you. Phebe or Jason, whoever. On the Defense business, when you look at your 2023 guidance, Defense growth is up solidly up 5% for the year versus the 9% growth you did in the first half. But this is not necessarily leading to operating leverage with margin contraction of 40 bps and flat operating profit. So how do you think about the return to operating margin expansion either on a total company level or a segment basis? It seems like Technologies is more temporary, Combat mix maybe continues for some time.

霍華德，正是路易所說的，然後感謝你成為我和你周圍所有人的一位出色的同事和老師，所以謝謝你。菲比或傑森，無論是誰。在國防業務方面，當你查看 2023 年指導時，會發現今年國防增長穩步增長 5%，而上半年增長了 9%。但這並不一定會導致運營槓桿率下降 40 個基點且運營利潤持平。那麼，您如何看待整個公司層面或部門層面的營業利潤率擴張的回報？技術似乎是暫時的，戰鬥混合可能會持續一段時間。

Technologies and Combat are simply a question of mix. And I suspect Combat will quickly return to its normal operating leverage. The Marine Group has significant supply chain challenges that have impacted for the Virginia-class in particular. That's going to take some time to resolve. We'll talk about that in a little bit more detail. So as I noted, we expect slow quarter-over-quarter margin growth in the Marine Group. Perhaps an occasional perturbation by quarter, but slow and steady improvement over time.

技術和戰鬥只是一個混合問題。我懷疑 Combat 將很快恢復到正常的運營槓桿。海軍陸戰隊面臨著重大的供應鏈挑戰，對弗吉尼亞級的影響尤其嚴重。這需要一些時間才能解決。我們將更詳細地討論這一點。正如我所指出的，我們預計海事集團的季度利潤率增長緩慢。也許每個季度都會出現偶爾的擾動，但隨著時間的推移，會緩慢而穩定地改善。

And your next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的肯·赫伯特 (Ken Herbert)。

Congratulations, Howard. Phebe, I just wanted to dig into Marine again a little deeper. The full year guide implies a pretty significant deceleration in growth into the back half of the year. Two questions, really. First, as we go back 6 months, you were talking about a much more conservative outlook for the top line in Marine. And clearly, maybe any comments on really what's changed because the first half has really been much stronger than expected. But then also, as you think about the remainder of the year, what will drive the significant step down and how much conservatism does the Marine outlook reflect in terms of the growth?

恭喜你，霍華德。菲比，我只是想再深入了解一下海軍陸戰隊。全年指南意味著今年下半年的增長將大幅放緩。確實有兩個問題。首先，我們回到 6 個月前，您談論的是海軍陸戰隊營收前景更加保守。顯然，也許對真正發生的變化有任何評論，因為上半年確實比預期強得多。但是，當您考慮今年剩餘時間時，什麼將推動大幅下降以及海洋前景在增長方面反映出多少保守主義？

So growth in the quarter was driven by improved -- increased volume on Columbia and on [the ELA] program as well as additional throughput throughout each 1 of those yards, which is often a precursor to better margin performance. And finally, just the -- revenue came in faster than we had anticipated, really across the board. And that will drive our expectations.

因此，本季度的增長是由哥倫比亞和 ELA 計劃的產量增加以及每個堆場的額外吞吐量推動的，這通常是更好的利潤表現的先兆。最後，收入的增長速度比我們預期的要快，而且是全面的。這將推動我們的期望。

With respect to the margin performance, we have -- Columbia is doing very well. We've got nice performance on the oiler. We see some deck plate improvements of Bath, but that has yet to translate into financial performance. Electric Boat needs to continue to get better to offset likely additional supply chain challenges as the Virginia supply chain begins to improve.

就利潤率表現而言，哥倫比亞做得非常好。我們在加油機上有很好的表現。我們看到巴斯的甲板有所改進，但這尚未轉化為財務業績。隨著弗吉尼亞州供應鏈開始改善，電船需要繼續變得更好，以抵消可能出現的額外供應鏈挑戰。

And with respect to that supply chain, we see improvements and some very nice improvement in some area. But that supply chain was hit hard by COVID. And I think a little bit of explanation there is helpful. COVID impacted that supply chain, Virginia supply chain, in particular, in a couple of ways. Obviously, the impact of COVID itself, the workforce disruption. Then we had the large demographic changeover. And finally, Virginia was impacted by the Columbia prioritization. All of that made it difficult for that supply chain to begin to get back on cadence. They're getting better, but we've got a while to go before they hit their 2-a-year or more cadence.

就供應鏈而言，我們看到了改進，並且在某些領域取得了一些非常好的改進。但該供應鏈受到了新冠疫情的嚴重打擊。我認為對此進行一些解釋是有幫助的。新冠疫情以多種方式影響了該供應鏈，尤其是弗吉尼亞州的供應鏈。顯然，新冠肺炎本身的影響，即勞動力的中斷。然後我們經歷了巨大的人口變化。最後，弗吉尼亞州受到哥倫比亞大學優先考慮的影響。所有這些使得該供應鏈很難開始恢復正常節奏。他們正在變得越來越好，但我們還需要一段時間才能讓他們達到每年 2 次或以上的節奏。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment from Baird.

您的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment)。

Good morning, Phebe and Jason. Congrats, Howard. Phebe, within Combat, munitions kind of is viewed as a potential source of kind of upside volume, and thanks for all the color on the segment. But how should we be thinking about the munitions growth profile? I mean, it's about finished last year, about 27% of your mix. Do you expect that mix to continue to grow? And any comments on the supply chain there as my follow-up, just because I know there's been talk about challenges there.

早上好，菲比和傑森。恭喜，霍華德。 Phebe，在戰鬥領域，彈藥被視為一種潛在的上漲量來源，感謝該領域的所有色彩。但我們應該如何考慮彈藥增長情況呢？我的意思是，它大約在去年完成，大約佔你的組合的 27%。您預計這種組合會繼續增長嗎？關於供應鏈的任何評論都是我的後續行動，只是因為我知道有人在談論那裡的挑戰。

The supply chain in the Combat group has been less of an issue. I suspect that the -- at least for the foreseeable future, the munitions portion of the business will remain about that, same as we see uplift in all of our all 3 businesses. We'll see OTS at about that same level. We've already increased munitions capacity and working with the federal government and the Army and OSD in particular, we have a very detailed plan to further increase capacity, which will allow us then to increase production very rapidly and move to the left, the munition availability to meet the United States' needs and, frankly, external needs as well.

戰鬥組的供應鏈問題不大。我懷疑，至少在可預見的未來，該業務的軍火部分將保持不變，就像我們所有 3 項業務的增長一樣。我們將看到 OTS 處於大致相同的水平。我們已經增加了彈藥產能，並與聯邦政府、陸軍和 OSD 合作，特別是，我們有一個非常詳細的計劃來進一步增加產能，這將使我們能夠非常迅速地增加產量並向左移動，彈藥可以滿足美國的需求，坦率地說，也可以滿足外部的需求。

Operator, we'll just take 1 more question, please.

接線員，我們再回答 1 個問題。

And our final question for today comes from the line of George Shapiro from Shapiro Research.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自夏皮羅研究中心的喬治·夏皮羅。

Congratulations, Howard. I didn't figure I'd outlast you, but we've known each other a lot of years and...

恭喜你，霍華德。我沒想到我會比你活得更長久，但我們已經認識很多年了，而且……

George, it's over 40. Just counting.

喬治，已經超過 40 了。正在數。

That's right. Phebe, on the default that you mentioned, can you just mention what kind of customers they might have been? And I assume you keep the down payments that might have been made on the aircraft that they order?

這是正確的。 Phebe，關於你提到的默認情況，你能提一下他們可能是什麼樣的客戶嗎？我假設您保留了他們訂購的飛機上可能支付的首付款？

So I think you know we have very strong terms and conditions that you forfeit some of your value in the airplane when you cancel. I don't actually know the context of the default, that won't -- nothing that was of note or interest, otherwise, I'd know it.

所以我想您知道我們有非常嚴格的條款和條件，當您取消預訂時，您將失去飛機上的部分價值。我實際上不知道默認的背景，不會的——沒有什麼值得注意或感興趣的，否則，我會知道的。

Okay. And Jason, the unbilled receivables was actually up like $100 million sequentially. So does that mean you didn't get any payments from the expected customers in the quarter? And how much would you expect the rest of the year to come in?

好的。傑森，未開票應收賬款實際上比上一季度增加了約 1 億美元。那麼這是否意味著您在本季度沒有從預期客戶那裡收到任何付款？您預計今年剩餘時間的收入是多少？

Actually, George, we did receive additional payments on schedule as per the plan that was set forth several years ago. And I'm actually happy to tell you that at this point -- and maybe this terminates this line of dialogue for the foreseeable future -- the arrears that you all may remember from many years ago on that Canadian international program has now effectively been paid down, and we are down to what I would call a normal run rate of operating working capital on that program. So I'm pleased to report that we've passed through that phase. In terms of what we expect to receive for the balance of the year, there are some more progress payments to come in, but I don't have that quantified off the top of my head.

事實上，喬治，我們確實按照幾年前製定的計劃按時收到了額外付款。我實際上很高興地告訴你們，在這一點上——也許這會在可預見的未來終止這一對話——你們可能還記得多年前加拿大國際項目的欠款現在已經有效支付下降，我們已經下降到我所說的該計劃運營營運資金的正常運行率。所以我很高興地報告我們已經度過了這個階段。就我們預計今年剩餘時間收到的收入而言，還會有更多進度付款，但我腦子裡還沒有具體量化。

Something you had kind of given what the specifics were on that in the queue.

您已經給出了隊列中的具體情況。

We'll follow up on that. Operator, that now ends the call. And for those that are interested in connecting later, or have follow-up questions. Please don't hesitate to call me. Thank you for joining our call today. As a reminder, please refer to the General Dynamics website for the second quarter earnings release and highlights presentation. And as I said, if you have any additional questions, I can be reached at (703) 876-3117. Thank you.

我們將對此進行跟進。接線員，現在結束通話。對於那些有興趣稍後聯繫或有後續問題的人。請隨時給我打電話。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。謹此提醒，請參閱通用動力網站了解第二季度收益發布和亮點演示。正如我所說，如果您有任何其他問題，可以撥打 (703) 876-3117 聯繫我。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。