通用動力 (GD) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the General Dynamics Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加通用動力公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Howard Rubel, Vice President of Investor Relations. Howard, please go ahead.

我現在想將電話會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Howard Rubel。霍華德，請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the General Dynamics Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call.

謝謝接線員，大家早上好。歡迎參加通用動力公司 2022 年第三季度電話會議。

Any forward-looking statements made today represent our estimates regarding the company's outlook. These estimates are subject to some risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see the slides that accompany this webcast, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website, investorrelations.gd.com.

今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述均代表我們對公司前景的估計。這些估計受到一些風險和不確定性的影響。有關這些因素的其他信息包含在公司的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中。我們還將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非公認會計原則措施的更多披露，包括與可比公認會計原則措施的對賬，請參閱本網絡廣播隨附的幻燈片，這些幻燈片可在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上找到，investorrelations.gd.com。

With that completed, I turn the call over to our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Phebe Novakovic.

完成後，我將電話轉給我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Phebe Novakovic。

Thank you, Howard. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for being with us.

謝謝你，霍華德。大家早上好，感謝您與我們在一起。

Earlier this morning, we reported earnings of $3.26 per diluted share on revenue of $10 billion, operating earnings of $1.1 billion, and net earnings of $902 million. Revenue is up $407 million or 4.3% against the third quarter last year. Operating earnings are up $18 million or 1.7%. Net earnings are up 4.9%, and earnings per share are up 6.2%. So the quarter-over-quarter results compare favorably.

今天早上早些時候，我們報告了每股攤薄收益 3.26 美元，收入為 100 億美元，營業收益為 11 億美元，淨收益為 9.02 億美元。與去年第三季度相比，收入增長了 4.07 億美元或 4.3%。營業收入增長 1800 萬美元或 1.7%。淨收益增長 4.9%，每股收益增長 6.2%。因此，季度環比結果比較有利。

The sequential results are even better. Here, we beat last quarter's revenue by 8.6%, operating earnings by 12.3%, net earnings by 17.8% and EPS by 18.5%. We beat consensus by $0.11 per share on somewhat higher revenue than anticipated by the sell side. Operating margin is about as anticipated. Most of the beat came from various other items, including a lower tax rate than anticipated by the sell side. On a year-to-date basis, net earnings are up $93 million or 4% and earnings per share are up $0.45, a strong 5.5%.

順序結果甚至更好。在這裡，我們比上一季度的收入高出 8.6%，營業利潤高出 12.3%，淨收益高出 17.8%，每股收益高出 18.5%。由於收入略高於賣方的預期，我們超出了每股 0.11 美元的共識。營業利潤率與預期大致相同。大部分節拍來自其他各種項目，包括低於賣方預期的稅率。年初至今，淨收益增長 9300 萬美元或 4%，每股收益增長 0.45 美元，強勁增長 5.5%。

We also had another very strong quarter from a cash perspective. Net cash flow provided by operating activities is $1.28 billion. Free cash flow was $1.03 billion, 114% of net income. This follows a very strong cash performance in the first half. Order performance was good in the quarter across all segments and particularly strong at Gulfstream. You will hear more detail on cash and backlog from Jason a little later.

從現金的角度來看，我們還有另一個非常強勁的季度。經營活動提供的淨現金流為 12.8 億美元。自由現金流為 10.3 億美元，占淨收入的 114%。這是繼上半年非常強勁的現金表現之後。本季度所有部門的訂單表現都很好，灣流的訂單表現尤其強勁。稍後您將聽到 Jason 關於現金和積壓的更多詳細信息。

In summary, we enjoyed a strong quarter, particularly so in light of supply chain, foreign exchange and inflation headwinds.

總而言之，我們享受了一個強勁的季度，特別是考慮到供應鏈、外彙和通貨膨脹的不利因素。

So let me move right into some color around the performance of the business segments. First, Aerospace. Aerospace had revenue of $2.35 billion and operating earnings of $312 million, with a 13.3% operating margin. Revenue is $281 million more than a year ago quarter, up 13.6%. Operating earnings of $50 million more, up 19.1% on higher revenue and a 60 basis point improvement in margins.

因此，讓我直接圍繞業務部門的表現進行一些討論。首先，航空航天。航空航天的收入為 23.5 億美元，營業收入為 3.12 億美元，營業利潤率為 13.3%。收入比去年同期增加 2.81 億美元，增長 13.6%。營業收入增加 5000 萬美元，收入增加 19.1%，利潤率提高 60 個基點。

The sequential improvement is even better. Revenue is up $480 million or 25.7%, and operating earnings are up $74 million or 31.1%. To be fair, the prior quarter's revenue and earnings were somewhat lower as a result of the inability to deliver for aircraft due to the airworthiness directive, which was fully resolved in the third quarter.

順序改進甚至更好。收入增長 4.8 億美元或 25.7%，營業收入增長 7400 萬美元或 31.1%。公平地說，由於適航指令導致飛機無法交付，上一季度的收入和收益有所下降，這在第三季度得到了完全解決。

From an order perspective, this was yet another good quarter, reflecting continuing strong demand. The Aerospace book-to-bill was 1.15:1. Gulfstream aircraft alone had a book-to-bill of 1.3:1 and 1.9:1 year-to-date. To put the point in perspective, since the end of the third quarter of 2021, Aerospace total backlog has grown $4.362 billion, to reach a very robust $19.1 billion.

從訂單的角度來看，這又是一個良好的季度，反映了持續強勁的需求。航空航天的帳單比為 1.15:1。年初至今，僅灣流飛機的賬面比為 1.3:1 和 1.9:1。從這個角度來看，自 2021 年第三季度末以來，航空航天總積壓已增長 43.62 億美元，達到非常強勁的 191 億美元。

Despite apparent macroeconomic headwinds, we continue to experience a strong level of interest, good activity and a replenishing pipeline. Certainly, demand in the quarter was not as superheated as prior quarters, but still the book-to-bill was very good against a significant increase in deliveries. Only time will tell about the macroeconomic impact, but we continue to see strong interest in Gulfstream aircraft and services.

儘管存在明顯的宏觀經濟逆風，但我們繼續感受到強烈的興趣、良好的活動和補充渠道。當然，本季度的需求不像前幾個季度那樣過熱，但在交付量顯著增加的情況下，訂單出貨量仍然非常好。只有時間才能說明宏觀經濟影響，但我們繼續看到對灣流飛機和服務的濃厚興趣。

From a product perspective, the G500 and G600 have now seen the FAA removed the wind-related airworthiness directive right on the schedule we had previously forecast. Almost the entire fleet had received the installation of the upgraded software by the end of the quarter. We have delivered 188 of these aircraft to customers through the end of the quarter. The G500, G600 together led the quarter in orders follow closely by G650. This is a very successful program with real market momentum.

從產品的角度來看，G500 和 G600 現在已經看到 FAA 按照我們之前預測的時間表取消了與風相關的適航指令。到本季度末，幾乎整個車隊都安裝了升級後的軟件。截至本季度末，我們已向客戶交付了 188 架此類飛機。 G500、G600 共同領跑本季度訂單，G650 緊隨其後。這是一個非常成功的計劃，具有真正的市場動力。

With respect to G700 development, the control law software validation is scheduled to begin FAA-type inspection authorization during the first week of November. We estimate we will certify this upcoming summer, but much depends on available FAA resources. Gulfstream had 35 deliveries in the quarter. If everything goes as planned, we'll deliver 40 to 41 aircraft in the fourth quarter.

關於 G700 的開發，控制律軟件驗證計劃在 11 月的第一周開始 FAA 型式檢查授權。我們估計我們將在即將到來的夏天進行認證，但很大程度上取決於可用的 FAA 資源。灣流在本季度交付了 35 架飛機。如果一切按計劃進行，我們將在第四季度交付 40 到 41 架飛機。

I haven't said much about Jet Aviation, but suffice it to say, it performed well in the quarter with improving margins in its MRO activities. In short, Aerospace exhibited very strong performance in the quarter and should have an even stronger fourth quarter.

關於 Jet Aviation，我沒有說太多，但可以說，它在本季度表現良好，其 MRO 活動的利潤率有所提高。簡而言之，航空航天在本季度表現非常強勁，第四季度應該會更加強勁。

Next, Combat. Combat Systems had very similar results on a quarter over year ago quarter basis, but with strong improvement sequentially. The Combat Systems revenue of $1.79 billion is up 2.5% from the year ago quarter. Earnings are down 1.8% on a 60 basis point reduction in operating margin. Nevertheless, the operating margin in the quarter is an impressive 15.2%.

接下來，戰鬥。與去年同期相比，Combat Systems 的結果非常相似，但連續有很大的改善。 Combat Systems 的收入為 17.9 億美元，比去年同期增長 2.5%。由於營業利潤率下降 60 個基點，收益下降了 1.8%。儘管如此，本季度的營業利潤率卻達到了令人印象深刻的 15.2%。

On a sequential basis, Combat Systems revenue is up $122 million or 7.3%, while operating earnings are up a very significant 10.6% on a 50 basis point improvement in operating margin. Demand across the segment provided a book-to-bill of 1.3:1 with a large order for Abrams main battle tanks for Poland, orders for $370 million for munitions and ordnance, and an order for 39 LAVs from the Canadian government. We also received our first order related to the Ukraine at our munitions business. All of this increases the Combat Systems total backlog to $13.8 billion.

在連續的基礎上，Combat Systems 的收入增長了 1.22 億美元或 7.3%，而營業利潤增長了 10.6%，營業利潤率提高了 50 個基點。整個部門的需求提供了 1.3:1 的賬面比，其中包括為波蘭訂購的艾布拉姆斯主戰坦克的大筆訂單、3.7 億美元的彈藥和軍械訂單以及來自加拿大政府的 39 輛 LAV 訂單。我們還在彈藥業務中收到了與烏克蘭有關的第一筆訂單。所有這些都將戰鬥系統的總積壓增加到 138 億美元。

In summary, this was an impressive new business quarter with strong operating performance once again by the Combat Systems group.

總之，這是一個令人印象深刻的新業務季度，Combat Systems 集團再次取得了強勁的運營業績。

Next, Marine. Revenue of $2.8 billion is up $132 million, 5% over the year ago quarter. This quarter's revenue growth was distributed fairly evenly between Electric Boat and NASSCO. Revenue is also up $118 million or 4.5% sequentially. Year-to-date revenue is up $415 million or 5.4%. Revenue in this group has been up for the last 20 quarters on a quarter-over-quarter basis. This is very impressive continued consistent growth.

接下來，海洋。收入為 28 億美元，比去年同期增長 1.32 億美元，增長 5%。本季度的收入增長在 Electric Boat 和 NASSCO 之間分佈相當均勻。收入也環比增長 1.18 億美元或 4.5%。年初至今的收入增長了 4.15 億美元或 5.4%。在過去的 20 個季度中，該組的收入環比增長。這是非常令人印象深刻的持續持續增長。

Operating earnings are $238 million in the quarter, up $9 million or 3.9% on operating margins of 8.6%. On a sequential basis, operating earnings are $27 million or an impressive 12.8% on a 60 basis point improvement in margin. At Electric Boat, the Columbia first ship remains on cost and on contract schedule. The ship is more than 25% complete. NASSCO had a particularly good quarter with improved [T-AO] revenue and better margins across the board.

本季度營業收入為 2.38 億美元，營業利潤率為 8.6%，增長 900 萬美元或 3.9%。在連續的基礎上，營業收入為 2700 萬美元或令人印象深刻的 12.8%，利潤率提高了 60 個基點。在 Electric Boat，哥倫比亞的第一艘船仍然按成本和合同時間表進行。該船已完成25%以上。 NASSCO 有一個特別好的季度，[T-AO] 收入和整體利潤率都有所提高。

From an orders perspective, Electric Boat received a large maintenance and modernization order for the USS Hartford. NASSCO received orders for an additional ESB and 2 T-AO Oilers. As a result, book-to-bill was 1.1:1, leading to a $400 million increase in backlog. Throughout the group, we have a solid backlog of new construction and repair work. Our programs are also well supported in the FY '23 budget.

從訂單的角度來看，Electric Boat 收到了 USS Hartford 的大型維護和現代化改造訂單。 NASSCO 收到了額外的 ESB 和 2 台 T-AO 加油機的訂單。結果，帳單比為 1.1:1，導致積壓訂單增加 4 億美元。在整個集團中，我們有大量的新建築和維修工作積壓。我們的計劃在 23 財年預算中也得到了很好的支持。

In summary, revenue growth is clearly visible. And as I've said before, the real opportunity given the steady revenue visibility is margin improvement over time.

綜上所述，收入增長清晰可見。正如我之前所說，鑑於穩定的收入可見性，真正的機會是利潤率隨著時間的推移而提高。

Moving to Technologies. This segment has revenue of $3.71 billion in the quarter, down $49 million from the year ago quarter or 1.6%. The revenue decrease was fairly evenly split in dollar terms between Mission Systems and IT. Mission Systems suffered from nagging supply chain disruptions and the failure of some government customers to obligate funds for authorized and appropriated products. In the case of IT services, it was largely timing and program mix.

轉向技術。該部門本季度的收入為 37.1 億美元，比去年同期下降 4900 萬美元或 1.6%。以美元計算，Mission Systems 和 IT 之間的收入下降相當平均。 Mission Systems 遭受了供應鏈中斷的困擾，以及一些政府客戶未能為授權和挪用產品提供資金。就 IT 服務而言，主要是時間安排和項目組合。

Operating earnings of $285 million are down $42 million or 12.8% on a 120 basis point reduction in operating margin, exclusively attributed to Mission Systems and largely related to the issues impacting revenue. Total backlog remains relatively consistent over all comparative periods with a book-to-bill of 1:1 in good order prospects on the horizon. The pipeline remains very active at both businesses. GDIT enjoyed another solid operating quarter with healthy earnings and particularly strong cash in part due to good results in the federal civilian division.

營業利潤為 2.85 億美元，下降 4200 萬美元或 12.8%，營業利潤率下降 120 個基點，這完全歸因於 Mission Systems，主要與影響收入的問題有關。在所有比較期間，總積壓量保持相對穩定，訂單出貨比為 1:1，訂單前景良好。這兩個業務的管道仍然非常活躍。 GDIT 又一個穩健的運營季度，盈利穩健，現金特別強勁，部分原因是聯邦文職部門的良好業績。

While we continue to see procurement delays, GDIT's year-to-date wins exceeded full year 2021 awards in dollar terms. These wins highlight the nice momentum in the business as GDIT begins to realize the benefits from targeted investments in the technical differentiation of its offerings. And this, despite the more than $3.5 billion tied up in prolonged protest and nearly $17 billion pending adjudication at the end of the third quarter.

雖然我們繼續看到採購延遲，但 GDIT 年初至今的獲獎金額以美元計算超過了 2021 年全年的獎項。這些勝利突顯了業務的良好勢頭，因為 GDIT 開始意識到有針對性的投資對其產品的技術差異化的好處。儘管有超過 35 億美元的長期抗議和近 170 億美元的懸而未決的裁決在第三季度末被捆綁在一起，但這一點。

On the people front, GDIT remains focused on attracting and retaining the very best technology talent. The culture this business has created, one of empowerment, accountability and inclusivity, is a clear differentiator and a fiercely competitive talent market.

在人才方面，GDIT 仍然專注於吸引和留住最優秀的技術人才。該企業所創造的文化是一種授權、責任和包容性，是一個明顯的差異化因素和一個競爭激烈的人才市場。

Mission Systems experienced a series of challenges in the third quarter, additional supply chain disruptions, inflation, labor availability and select intel programs and customer contracting delays. Many Mission Systems customers have a serious shortage of contracting officers that have hampered their ability to execute on programs of record. In addition, quite understandably, customer focus has been redirected in some areas to meet the more urgent demands of the Ukraine.

Mission Systems 在第三季度經歷了一系列挑戰，包括額外的供應鏈中斷、通貨膨脹、勞動力供應以及選擇英特爾計劃和客戶合同延遲。許多 Mission Systems 客戶嚴重缺乏簽約人員，這阻礙了他們執行記錄程序的能力。此外，可以理解的是，客戶關注點已在某些領域轉移，以滿足烏克蘭更緊迫的需求。

The business has offset some of the bottom line impact by productivity improvements and cost-cutting initiatives. They will make every effort to catch up in the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, we anticipate these fact of life realities to continue for a while. I'll have more to say on that subject in a moment.

該業務通過提高生產力和削減成本舉措抵消了一些底線影響。他們將盡一切努力在第四節迎頭趕上。儘管如此，我們預計這些生活現實將持續一段時間。稍後我將就這個主題說更多。

That concludes my remarks with respect to a solid quarter for the entire company. So as we look toward the end of the year, we expect performance to be largely in line with the update to guidance that we gave you on the last call. As I just referenced, we expect Technologies to fall short of our previous estimates, but we expect Aerospace to run somewhat ahead of our previous forecast. All up, they should offset each other. In all other respects, our guidance remains the same. We stand by our previous EPS guidance.

我對整個公司的穩健季度的評論到此結束。因此，當我們展望今年年底時，我們預計業績將在很大程度上與我們在上次電話會議上給您的指導更新一致。正如我剛才提到的那樣，我們預計技術將低於我們之前的估計，但我們預計航空航天的運行會比我們之前的預測略高。總而言之，它們應該相互抵消。在所有其他方面，我們的指導保持不變。我們堅持我們之前的每股收益指導。

I'll now turn the call over to our CFO, Jason Aiken, for further remarks.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席財務官 Jason Aiken，以徵求進一步的意見。

Thank you, Phebe, and good morning. Starting with our cash performance. It was another strong quarter with operating cash flow of nearly $1.3 billion. This was achieved once again on the strength of the Gulfstream orders and particularly strong cash performance from our Technologies segment. This brings us to $3.9 billion of operating cash flow through the first 9 months of the year, which also includes the ongoing collections on our large international combat vehicle contract according to the contract restructure that occurred back in 2020.

謝謝你，菲比，早上好。從我們的現金表現開始。這是另一個強勁的季度，經營現金流接近 13 億美元。這得益於灣流訂單的強勁表現以及我們技術部門特別強勁的現金表現。這使我們在今年前 9 個月的運營現金流達到了 39 億美元，其中還包括根據 2020 年發生的合同重組正在對我們的大型國際戰車合同進行的收款。

Including capital expenditures, our free cash flow was just over $1 billion for the quarter and $3.3 billion year-to-date, yielding a conversion rate of 137% through the first 9 months. The continued strong performance positions us very well to achieve our target for the year of free cash flow conversion at or above 100% of net income.

包括資本支出在內，我們本季度的自由現金流略高於 10 億美元，年初至今為 33 億美元，前 9 個月的轉化率為 137%。持續強勁的業績使我們能夠很好地實現我們當年自由現金流轉換為淨收入 100% 或以上的目標。

With respect to the status of the tax treatment of research and development expenses, I think everyone can sense that despite the broad-based bipartisan support for immediate expensing of these investments, the window of opportunity for action in 2022 is quickly closing. As we've said all throughout the year, if the Congress acts to defer or reverse the capitalization requirement, we would expect free cash flow for the year at or above 110% of net income.

關於研發費用的稅收處理狀況，我想每個人都能感覺到，儘管兩黨廣泛支持立即支出這些投資，但 2022 年採取行動的機會之窗正在迅速關閉。正如我們全年所說，如果國會採取行動推遲或撤銷資本化要求，我們預計今年的自由現金流將達到或高於淨收入的 110%。

Looking at capital deployment. Capital expenditures were $255 million in the quarter or 2.6% of sales. That's up from last year, consistent with our expectation to be around 2.5% of sales for the year. For the first 9 months, we're at 2.2% of sales, but 2.5% remains our full year target, so obviously an implied uptick in capital investments in the fourth quarter.

看資本配置。本季度資本支出為 2.55 億美元，佔銷售額的 2.6%。這比去年有所上升，與我們預計今年銷售額的 2.5% 左右一致。前 9 個月，我們的銷售額佔銷售額的 2.2%，但 2.5% 仍然是我們的全年目標，因此顯然第四季度資本投資隱含上升。

We also paid $345 million in dividends during the quarter, bringing the total deployed in dividends and share repurchases through the first 9 months to just over $2.1 billion. The net result at the end of the third quarter was a cash balance of $2.5 billion and a net debt position just under $9 billion, down over $1.5 billion from this time last year.

我們還在本季度支付了 3.45 億美元的股息，使前 9 個月的股息和股票回購總額略高於 21 億美元。第三季度末的淨結果是現金餘額為 25 億美元，淨債務頭寸略低於 90 億美元，比去年同期減少了 15 億多美元。

Net interest expense in the quarter was $86 million, down from $99 million in the third quarter of 2021. That brings the interest expense for the first 9 months of the year to $279 million, down from $331 million for the same period in 2021. At this point, we continue to expect our interest expense for the year to be approximately $380 million, including the assumed repayment of $1 billion of notes that mature in the fourth quarter.

本季度的淨利息支出為 8600 萬美元，低於 2021 年第三季度的 9900 萬美元。這使得今年前 9 個月的利息支出為 2.79 億美元，低於 2021 年同期的 3.31 億美元。在這一點上，我們繼續預計我們今年的利息支出約為 3.8 億美元，包括假設償還的 10 億美元在第四季度到期的票據。

The tax rate in the quarter was 14.3%, bringing the rate for the first 9 months to 15.1%. This is consistent with our guidance last quarter to expect a lower rate in the third quarter and a higher rate in the fourth. So no change to our outlook of 16% for the full year, which, of course, implies a higher tax rate in the discrete fourth quarter. One more comment on the tax front. The Inflation Reduction Act, which was signed into law in August, included a 15% corporate minimum tax and a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks. We don't expect either of these provisions to have a material impact on our financial results.

本季度的稅率為 14.3%，使前 9 個月的稅率達到 15.1%。這與我們上季度預期第三季度較低利率和第四季度較高利率的指導一致。因此，我們對全年 16% 的預期沒有變化，這當然意味著離散的第四季度的稅率更高。關於稅收方面的另一條評論。 8 月簽署成為法律的《降低通脹法案》包括 15% 的企業最低稅和 1% 的股票回購消費稅。我們預計這些條款中的任何一項都不會對我們的財務業績產生重大影響。

Order activity and backlog were once again a strong story in the third quarter with a 1.1:1 book-to-bill for the company as a whole. As mentioned earlier, Aerospace continued to have a strong order activity with a 1.2x book-to-bill in the quarter and 1.6x over the trailing 12 months.

訂單活動和積壓訂單在第三季度再次成為一個強勁的故事，整個公司的訂單與賬單比率為 1.1:1。如前所述，航空航天繼續保持強勁的訂單活動，本季度訂單出貨量為 1.2 倍，過去 12 個月為 1.6 倍。

On the defense side, the combined book-to-bill was 1.1x, with each of the segments achieving a book-to-bill of at least 1x. We finished the quarter with a total backlog of $88.8 billion, while total potential contract value, including options and IDIQ contracts was $125.8 billion. The increase in backlog was particularly notable given a headwind from foreign exchange rate fluctuations of approximately $275 million in the quarter and $650 million year-to-date, with the vast majority of the impact in Combat Systems.

在防守方，合併後的帳單比為 1.1 倍，每個部分的帳單比至少為 1 倍。我們在本季度末的總積壓為 888 億美元，而包括期權和 IDIQ 合同在內的潛在合同總價值為 1258 億美元。鑑於本季度外匯匯率波動約 2.75 億美元和年初至今 6.5 億美元的逆風，積壓訂單的增加尤為顯著，其中絕大多數影響在戰鬥系統中。

Incidentally, the FX fluctuations also negatively impacted Combats revenue by $55 million in the quarter and $123 million in the first 9 months of the year due to the surging dollar versus the euro and the British pound. But for the FX headwind, the Combat Systems group's revenue would have been up by 5.6% in the quarter and down only 3.9% for the first 9 months.

順便說一句，由於美元兌歐元和英鎊的飆升，外匯波動也對 Combats 本季度的收入產生了 5500 萬美元的負面影響，而今年前 9 個月的收入則減少了 1.23 億美元。但由於外匯逆風，Combat Systems 集團本季度的收入將增長 5.6%，而前 9 個月僅下降 3.9%。

That concludes my remarks, and I'll turn it over to Howard to start the Q&A.

我的發言到此結束，我將把它交給霍華德開始問答。

Thanks, Jason. (Operator Instructions) Operator, could you please remind participants how to enter the queue?

謝謝，傑森。 （操作員說明）操作員，請您提醒參與者如何進入隊列？

(Operator Instructions) Our first telephone question today comes from Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個電話問題來自摩根大通的塞思·塞夫曼。

Sorry, Jason, to waste a question on pension here, but you guys are a little bit different than your peer group in terms of the way that you account for things. When we think about where interest rates and asset returns are year-to-date, and we think about the income below the line next year, where that might migrate to you. And when we think about the cash impact, if any, in terms of the contributions that you would expect. Can you give us an update on that?

對不起，傑森，在這裡浪費一個關於養老金的問題，但就你對事物的解釋方式而言，你們與同齡人有點不同。當我們考慮年初至今的利率和資產回報率時，我們會考慮明年低於線的收入，這可能會轉移到你身上。當我們考慮現金影響（如果有的話）時，就您所期望的貢獻而言。你能告訴我們最新情況嗎？

Yes. As you said, Seth, we are somewhat different from most of the peer group in this regard. And as a result, right now, we're not expecting anything material from an income perspective on the pension front. Obviously, that's something we'll roll up as part of our full operating plan process here in the fourth quarter and give you more specific detailed guidance in January. But I think the bottom line is both from an earnings as well as from a cash perspective, we don't expect that at this point to be a material item.

是的。正如你所說，賽斯，在這方面，我們與大多數同行群體有些不同。因此，目前，從養老金方面的收入角度來看，我們並不期待任何實質性的東西。顯然，這是我們將在第四季度在這裡作為我們完整運營計劃流程的一部分匯總的內容，並在 1 月份為您提供更具體的詳細指導。但我認為底線既來自收益，也來自現金的角度，我們不認為在這一點上是一個重要的項目。

Okay. Just to clarify, the $40 million or so of income below the line each quarter, that kind of continues?

好的。只是為了澄清一下，每個季度低於線下的 4000 萬美元左右的收入，這種情況還會繼續嗎？

Some version in that range. I don't have an exact number at this point. You can expect it to decline as you would suspect modestly. But again, that's not 100% pension income there. It's a big piece of that is pension income on the commercial side of the business. So it should downtick a little bit, but not in a material way.

該範圍內的某些版本。在這一點上，我沒有確切的數字。您可以預期它會像您適度懷疑的那樣下降。但同樣，這並不是 100% 的養老金收入。其中很大一部分是企業商業方面的養老金收入。所以它應該下降一點，但不是以物質的方式。

Okay. Okay. And then maybe as a quick follow-up, we saw some news, Phebe, during the quarter about the Australian sub and the potential to do some work on that outside of Australia. And we all kind of know about the capacity constraints on sub building right now. Maybe could you talk a little bit about your thinking on that topic?

好的。好的。然後也許作為一個快速的後續行動，我們在本季度看到了一些關於澳大利亞潛艇的新聞，以及在澳大利亞以外的地方做一些工作的潛力。而且我們現在都知道子建築的容量限制。也許你能談談你對這個話題的看法嗎？

Yes. So we are driven entirely by the demand of our customer and the prioritization of our customers. So we're working with them, our U.S. Navy, to determine what the focus should be going forward. And as we work through these -- some of these capacity issues that how do we accommodate not only U.S. demand, but potentially other demand.

是的。因此，我們完全由客戶的需求和客戶的優先級驅動。因此，我們正在與他們，我們的美國海軍合作，以確定未來的重點。當我們解決這些問題時——其中一些產能問題是我們如何不僅滿足美國的需求，而且還可能滿足其他需求。

Our next question today comes from David Strauss of Barclays.

我們今天的下一個問題來自巴克萊的大衛施特勞斯。

Phebe, were there any unusual costs at the Aerospace segment in the quarter related to the 500, 600 software fix?

Phebe，本季度航空航天部門是否有任何與 500、600 軟件修復相關的異常成本？

Yes, David, we did have, I think you're aware, some customer accommodation related to the software issue, both in the second quarter and the third quarter wasn't material to the results, but that has been absorbed in the numbers that you see and is inherent in the improved margins that the group posted in the quarter.

是的，大衛，我們確實有，我想你知道，一些與軟件問題相關的客戶住宿，在第二季度和第三季度對結果並不重要，但這已經被吸收到了您看到並且是該集團在本季度發布的利潤率提高所固有的。

Okay. And it's completely behind nothing lingering in Q4, Jason?.

好的。傑森，它完全落後於第四季度的任何揮之不去的東西？

Right.

正確的。

That's correct. It's behind us at this point.

這是正確的。在這一點上，它在我們身後。

Okay. Great. And a follow-up on free cash flow conversion. Given where you are year-to-date, I mean over 100% for the full year looks pretty conservative unless there's something unusual, I guess, from a working capital perspective that you're expecting in or baking in Q4. Can you just elaborate on that?

好的。偉大的。以及自由現金流轉換的後續行動。考慮到你年初至今的情況，我的意思是全年超過 100% 看起來相當保守，除非我猜從營運資金的角度來看，你期望或在第四季度出現異常情況。你能詳細說明一下嗎？

Yes. As you point out, the cash flow has been particularly strong through the first 9 months. So as I said in the opening remarks, we're very comfortable with the 100-plus percent for the year. To be completely candid, there's probably some opportunity for some upside there. If I look at the things that we're monitoring, number one, to the first 9 months, we've had a significant benefit from working capital reduction. Some of that's timing. So some of that could turn in the fourth quarter. We'll watch that.

是的。正如您所指出的，前 9 個月的現金流特別強勁。因此，正如我在開場白中所說，我們對今年的 100% 以上感到非常滿意。坦率地說，那裡可能有一些上漲的機會。如果我看看我們在前 9 個月監控的第一件事，我們從減少營運資金中獲得了顯著的好處。其中一些是時機。因此，其中一些可能會在第四季度出現。我們會注意的。

The other big piece is, as I noted, we're still expecting or forecasting CapEx for the year to be in the 2.5% of sales range. So that implies a pretty meaningful uptick in CapEx in the fourth quarter. I'll acknowledge that we've often chased our CapEx forecast and rarely hit it. So there could be some upside opportunity there if we don't get everything in, in the year. But if we do that, that's a headwind to the fourth quarter.

正如我所指出的，另一個重要因素是，我們仍然預計或預測今年的資本支出將在銷售額的 2.5% 範圍內。因此，這意味著第四季度資本支出的大幅上升。我承認我們經常追逐我們的資本支出預測並且很少達到它。因此，如果我們在這一年裡沒有把所有的東西都放進去，那可能會有一些上行機會。但如果我們這樣做，那將是第四季度的逆風。

And frankly, the third item is something that everybody continues to monitor and that is we need to resolve our situation on the AJAX program. So those are some of the things we're monitoring for the fourth quarter. We come through all that. And certainly, to your point, we have some opportunity for some upside.

坦率地說，第三項是每個人都在繼續監控的事情，那就是我們需要解決我們在 AJAX 計劃上的情況。所以這些是我們在第四季度監控的一些事情。我們經歷了這一切。當然，就你而言，我們有一些上漲的機會。

Our next question today comes from Ron Epstein of Bank of America.

我們今天的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

Just maybe the supply chain question. It seems like you guys are navigating it really well. Most airplane companies today are having -- aren't going to deliver more than they thought they were going to deliver, the opposite problem. So I guess my question for you is, how is the supply chain going for Gulfstream?

可能只是供應鏈問題。看來你們導航得很好。今天的大多數飛機公司都面臨著——不會比他們想像的要交付更多，相反的問題。所以我想我的問題是，灣流的供應鏈如何？

And then, b, when you look at the defense business you have, we've heard kind of across the sector, similar issues on chips and so on and so forth. How is it going there?

然後，b，當您查看您擁有的國防業務時，我們在整個行業都聽說過類似的芯片問題等等。那裡進展如何？

So we've had a fair number of supply chain challenges on Aerospace side, which we have accommodated heretofore. But supply chain remains a potential challenge going forward. And as we go through our planning process in the fourth quarter, we get a lot more clarity airplane by airplane of what the supply chain is able to do. But we have so far managed. There are, however, as you quite rightly note, a fair number of headwinds out there.

因此，我們在航空航天方面遇到了相當多的供應鏈挑戰，迄今為止我們已經解決了這些挑戰。但供應鏈仍然是未來的潛在挑戰。當我們在第四季度完成計劃過程時，我們對供應鏈能夠做什麼有了更清晰的了解。但到目前為止，我們已經做到了。但是，正如您正確指出的那樣，存在相當多的不利因素。

On the defense side, we have accommodated most of the supply chain perturbations, except obviously in the Marine group. But most profoundly in the quarter and most impactfully is at Mission Systems. And while they had dealt with a lot of the more pedestrian supply chain challenges, specialty chips continue to dog them and the additional delays that they experienced in the quarter were very, very hard for them, in fact, impossible for them to overcome.

在國防方面，我們已經適應了大部分供應鏈的擾動，除了海軍陸戰隊。但本季度影響最大、影響最大的是 Mission Systems。雖然他們已經處理了許多更普通的供應鏈挑戰，但特種芯片繼續困擾著他們，而且他們在本季度經歷的額外延遲對他們來說非常非常困難，事實上，他們不可能克服。

Mission Systems is a very high-performance organization, and they produced several high-value complex products that have experienced delays before, but again, even beyond some of the chip problems, some of the specialty products going into that production those production lines were also impacted. So to Mission Systems credit, they have taken a lot of cost-cutting and restructuring initiatives to offset the margin impact and earnings impact of the revenue decline, but we're going to have to work through some of that. And so more to come as we look into the fourth quarter and then into next year.

Mission Systems 是一個非常高效的組織，他們生產的幾款高價值複雜產品之前都經歷過延遲，但同樣，即使除了一些芯片問題之外，那些生產線的一些特殊產品也受到影響。因此，感謝 Mission Systems，他們採取了許多削減成本和重組計劃來抵消收入下降對利潤的影響和收益影響，但我們將不得不解決其中的一些問題。當我們展望第四季度和明年時，還會有更多的事情發生。

Got it. Got it. And then maybe as a follow-on. On the labor side, what are you seeing across the businesses, right? We clearly hear from the Navy that they want to have more shipbuilders out there. But I mean what are you seeing across all the businesses you have in the portfolio in terms of skilled labor?

知道了。知道了。然後也許作為後續行動。在勞工方面，您在整個企業中看到了什麼，對嗎？我們清楚地從海軍那裡聽到他們希望有更多的造船廠在那裡。但我的意思是，就熟練勞動力而言，您在投資組合中的所有業務中看到了什麼？

Yes. So there are some across the businesses, there are some specialty engineering and specialty fields that have had some headwinds on labor, but those are beginning to resolve. In terms of manufacturing, we had some perturbation in -- we've had a lot of perturbation in the labor market, but felt that particularly at Quonset Point, but that's beginning to resolve itself.

是的。因此，在整個企業中，有一些專業工程和專業領域在勞動力方面遇到了一些不利因素，但這些問題正在開始解決。在製造業方面，我們遇到了一些擾動——我們在勞動力市場上遇到了很多擾動，但尤其是在 Quonset Point，這種感覺已經開始得到解決。

When you think about shipbuilding, shipbuilding is a very complex, high touch labor business. And when you have a nationwide perturbation in the labor market, it's going to be impacted. I mean, while we kept open, not all of the supply chain did, but we also lost a number of experienced shipbuilders as well as experienced people manufacturing folks in the supply chain. So all of that at a higher level than we normally experience. And I don't think that we are alone in that. People took the opportunity in the middle of the pandemic to retire. So we've got to work through some of that. But ultimately, we do not see -- and I think this is an important point here. We do not see labor as constraint for our revenue growth at the moment. Certainly not in the longer term.

當您想到造船時，造船是一項非常複雜、高接觸的勞動力業務。當勞動力市場出現全國性動盪時，它就會受到影響。我的意思是，雖然我們保持開放，但並非所有供應鏈都這樣做，但我們也失去了一些經驗豐富的造船商以及供應鏈中經驗豐富的製造人員。因此，所有這些都比我們通常所經歷的更高。而且我認為我們並不孤單。人們在大流行期間趁機退休。所以我們必須解決其中的一些問題。但最終，我們沒有看到——我認為這是一個重要的觀點。目前，我們不認為勞動力是我們收入增長的製約因素。從長遠來看，當然不是。

Our next question today comes from Rob Stallard of Vertical Research.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Rob Stallard。

Steve, your comments suggest that we're finally seeing some of this strong defense demand turning into orders. But what sort of time line are you expecting for these orders to actually convert into deliveries.

史蒂夫，你的評論表明我們終於看到這種強大的國防需求轉化為訂單。但是，您希望這些訂單實際轉化為交付的時間線是什麼。

You talking about Combat?

你說戰鬥？

Well, across the defense divisions, especially Combat. Yes.

好吧，在整個防禦部門，尤其是戰鬥部門。是的。

Yes. Let's talk about Combat because I think -- and then we can talk if you want a little bit about Technologies. And before I get to Combat, Marine is pretty clear. The orders continue to be healthy. The revenue projection, while you have some quarterly lumpiness, it signifies nothing for the long-term growth.

是的。讓我們談談戰鬥，因為我認為——然後如果你想談談技術，我們可以談談。在我開始戰鬥之前，Marine 非常清楚。訂單繼續保持健康。收入預測雖然有一些季度波動，但對長期增長沒有任何意義。

With respect to Combat, we saw a number of things in the quarter, primarily Stryker and Abrams as well as MPF is beginning to ramp up as in Poland. And we saw some munitions orders also related to the Ukraine. So I suspect that -- and if we parse through, we focus in on the Ukraine, what we anticipate that our U.S. Army customers telling us they want more ammunition and munitions. So we're working with them to ramp up production.

關於 Combat，我們在本季度看到了很多事情，主要是 Stryker 和 Abrams 以及 MPF 開始像波蘭一樣增長。我們還看到了一些與烏克蘭有關的軍火訂單。所以我懷疑——如果我們仔細分析，我們會關注烏克蘭，我們預計我們的美國陸軍客戶告訴我們他們想要更多的彈藥和彈藥。因此，我們正在與他們合作以提高產量。

In Europe, we've seen demand for bridges because frankly, a lot of water in Europe. And we've got a very nice business in Germany to provide river crossings at various widths and weight levels. And then we're seeing -- beginning to see increases in vehicle orders and vehicle RFPs coming out, particularly, but not exclusively in the former Eastern block.

在歐洲，我們看到了對橋樑的需求，因為坦率地說，歐洲有很多水。我們在德國的業務非常好，可以提供各種寬度和重量水平的河流過境點。然後我們看到 - 開始看到車輛訂單和車輛 RFP 的增加，特別是但不僅限於前東部街區。

So Technologies is really, I think, a tale of 2 cities. GDIT has had good bookings. They grew last year. We anticipate them to grow this year. This is all about Mission Systems, as I think, tried to give you a fair amount of detailed color on what's impacting them. It's the demand for their high-value products is out there. It's just our -- the inability to deliver because of the supply chain is constraining some of the orders, but they're there. They're just waiting to be executed once we get through all of this, and we will, we will get through it.

所以，我認為，技術真的是一個關於 2 個城市的故事。 GDIT 有很好的預訂。他們去年長大了。我們預計它們今年會增長。正如我認為的那樣，這都是關於任務系統的，它試圖為您提供相當多的詳細顏色來說明影響它們的因素。這是對他們高價值產品的需求。這只是我們的 - 由於供應鏈而無法交付正在限制一些訂單，但它們就在那裡。一旦我們完成所有這些，他們就等著被處決，我們會的，我們會度過的。

So just to follow up on Combat, and these orders you've had from Europe, for example, is there roughly a 12-month to 2-year lead time between the contract getting signed and actually GD delivering?

因此，只是跟進 Combat，以及您從歐洲獲得的這些訂單，例如，從簽訂合同到實際交付 GD 之間是否有大約 12 個月到 2 年的交貨時間？

Completely depends on the product. Less so on the bridge side and it depends and again, less so potentially on the vehicle side, it just depends on the vehicle, and exactly what modifications or changes folks want. We're not looking at clean sheet vehicles. We're looking at changes to existing vehicles that we have updated consistently and throughout the years. So it will depend. I suspect a year, in some cases, 18 months. Certainly, I don't expect a whole lot more than that.

完全取決於產品。橋側的情況較少，它取決於車輛側的可能性較小，它僅取決於車輛，以及人們想要的修改或更改。我們不是在尋找乾淨的車輛。我們正在研究對我們多年來持續更新的現有車輛的更改。所以這將取決於。我懷疑一年，在某些情況下，是 18 個月。當然，我不期望更多。

Our next question comes from Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

I know that there's the $1 billion maturity coming in November, but curious maybe, Phebe, how you're thinking about capital deployment in a broader sense, obviously, cash flow coming in ahead of expectations. I think...

我知道 11 月將有 10 億美元的到期日，但也許很好奇，Phebe，您如何從更廣泛的意義上考慮資本部署，顯然，現金流量超出預期。我認為...

Yes, yes. No, no, no. And that's a very good question. Our capital deployment priorities remain the same. But let me give -- ask Jason to give you a little bit more color on the details.

是的是的。不不不。這是一個非常好的問題。我們的資本部署優先事項保持不變。但是讓我給 - 請傑森給你更多的細節上的顏色。

Yes. I think the way to think about it, Myles, we've talked about the $1 billion coming due in November. We do plan to pay that down. When you think on the debt side, we'll have additional maturities coming up in 2023, and that's where we said we'll start to look, think back to the CSRA acquisition and the additional debt we took on, we would bring it down to a point where it's some undefined point in the future, we'd start to think about whether we've hit the right level or not.

是的。邁爾斯，我認為這是一種思考方式，我們已經討論了 11 月到期的 10 億美元。我們確實計劃支付這筆費用。當您考慮債務方面時，我們將在 2023 年到期，這就是我們說我們將開始考慮的地方，回想一下對 CSRA 的收購以及我們承擔的額外債務，我們會降低它到了未來某個未定義的點，我們會開始考慮我們是否達到了正確的水平。

And I think when we get into next year, we'll start to have that conversation in a more substantive way in terms of decision making. When you look at the other elements, share repurchase, as you know, is always tactical and opportunistic. It was a very volatile market in the third quarter. So we were a little more hands off just kind of trying to see what -- where things shake out, but that doesn't change our long-term approach to share repurchase in a tactical and opportunistic way.

我認為當我們進入明年時，我們將開始在決策方面以更實質性的方式進行對話。如您所知，當您查看其他元素時，股票回購始終是戰術性和機會主義的。第三季度是一個非常動蕩的市場。因此，我們稍微放開了手，只是想看看事情在哪裡發生了變化，但這並沒有改變我們以戰術和機會主義方式進行股票回購的長期方法。

And I think importantly, the dividend is always going to be there. You've always heard us talk about that, and we'll continue to expect to be on that trajectory that we've been on for the past quarter century, frankly.

而且我認為重要的是，紅利總是會存在的。您總是聽到我們談論這一點，坦率地說，我們將繼續期待我們在過去四分之一世紀中一直走的軌跡。

So as Phebe said, no changes in the deployment strategy. It will just be a matter of what's in the moment in a given quarter. And I think importantly, our cash flow performance and our liquidity resources afford us the optionality to address all of those priorities without having to forgo one for the sake of the other.

因此，正如 Phebe 所說，部署策略沒有變化。這只是一個給定季度的當下的問題。我認為重要的是，我們的現金流表現和流動性資源為我們提供了解決所有這些優先事項的選擇權，而不必為了另一個而放棄一個。

And just a quick follow-up. Phebe, so does the M&A market attractiveness, has that improved, become worse, the same?

只是一個快速的跟進。 Phebe，併購市場的吸引力是否有所改善，變得更糟，還是一樣嗎？

We're just not going to comment on M&A. So I think we can leave it at that. You want one more shot, one more question?

我們只是不打算對併購發表評論。所以我認為我們可以把它留在那裡。你想再拍一張，再問一個問題嗎？

No. I'll stay true. I don't want to get Howard angry.

不，我會保持真實。我不想惹霍華德生氣。

Yes, that's a scary thing, Isn't it?.

是的，這很可怕，不是嗎？

Our next question comes from George Shapiro of Shapiro Research.

我們的下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究公司的喬治夏皮羅。

Yes. Jason, I wonder if I could pin you down a little bit as to how big a number of the software fixes were in the margin for Gulfstream in the quarter? Are we talking a few million dollars or something more?

是的。傑森，我想知道我是否可以讓您了解一下本季度灣流的軟件修復數量有多少？我們說的是幾百萬美元還是更多？

George, I don't actually have a discrete number on the software fix. I mean, I have a sense of the overall R&D budget and that sort of fits into that context. So I think as David asked earlier in terms of impacts to Aerospace in the quarter, you saw the nice margin improvement, frankly, even a little bit ahead of where we were expecting, which is why as Phebe alluded, we think we'll -- the group perform better for the full year.

喬治，我實際上沒有關於軟件修復的離散數字。我的意思是，我對總體研發預算有一定的了解，並且這種預算適合這種情況。因此，我認為正如大衛早些時候在本季度對航空航天的影響方面所問的那樣，坦率地說，你看到了不錯的利潤率提高，甚至比我們預期的要提前一點，這就是為什麼正如 Phebe 所暗示的那樣，我們認為我們會 - - 該集團全年表現更好。

But even within those strong results in the quarter, we did have an impact, an adverse impact in terms of the accommodations we made with customers on the 500, 600 airworthiness directive. Again, that's fully behind us. And we are in a, at this point, sustained elevated R&D mode. Part of that was the resources that were diverted from the 700 over to the 500, 600 AD fix. And that will sustain through next year, as we've talked about as we continue towards certification of the 700 and then ultimately the 800.

但即使在本季度的這些強勁業績中，我們也確實產生了影響，就我們與客戶在 500、600 適航指令中所做的住宿而言，產生了不利影響。同樣，這完全落後於我們。在這一點上，我們處於持續提升的研發模式。其中一部分是從 700 轉移到 500、600 AD 修復的資源。這將持續到明年，正如我們所說的那樣，我們將繼續獲得 700 的認證，然後最終獲得 800。

So I'll give you a little more color around that, but I apologize, I don't have a discrete number around the airworthiness directed fix.

所以我會給你更多的顏色，但我很抱歉，我沒有關於適航指導修復的離散數字。

Okay. And then a quick one, Phebe, a usual question. There's a $59 million difference between the gross and the net bookings in Aerospace. Was that a cancellation? Was it FX related? Or if you can quantify that?

好的。然後是一個快速的問題，Phebe，一個常見的問題。航空航天的總預訂量和淨預訂量之間存在 5900 萬美元的差異。那是取消嗎？和FX有關嗎？或者如果你可以量化它？

All of the above. I mean really absolutely immaterial.

上述所有的。我的意思是真的完全無關緊要。

Okay. And let me sneak in one last one...

好的。讓我潛入最後一個...

You're risking Howard's ire. Go, George.

你冒著激怒霍華德的風險。去吧，喬治。

I always got Howard's ire. That's okay. When you commented about your deliveries in '23 and '24, it presupposed the book-to-bill of 1. Obviously, we've run a lot better than that. So are you thinking of changing those delivery forecasts or just stay conservative with the delivery forecast that you have out there?

我總是得到霍華德的憤怒。沒關係。當您評論您在 23 年和 24 年的交貨時，它預設了 1 的訂單到帳單。顯然，我們的運行情況要好得多。那麼，您是在考慮更改這些交付預測，還是對現有的交付預測保持保守？

Not at the moment. We assumed 1:1, and at the moment, I don't see any reason to change that. But as we go through our planning process, to the extent that we need to modify it, we certainly will and we'll be very explicit about that in the fourth quarter.

現在不行。我們假設 1:1，目前，我認為沒有任何理由改變它。但是，當我們完成我們的計劃過程時，我們需要對其進行修改，我們肯定會並且我們將在第四季度對此非常明確。

Next question comes from Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Sorry about that. You guys hear me.

對於那個很抱歉。你們聽我說。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Great. Phebe, on international defense sales, we're seeing changes in relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. With your foreign military sales to Saudi Arabia through Canada, how do we think about this evolving relationship potentially affecting your business?

好的。偉大的。菲比，在國際國防銷售方面，我們看到美國和沙特阿拉伯之間的關係發生了變化。隨著您通過加拿大向沙特阿拉伯進行對外軍售，我們如何看待這種不斷發展的關係可能會影響您的業務？

We see no indication of that in the moment. (inaudible)

我們目前沒有看到任何跡象。 （聽不清）

Following up on what George was asking about on Aerospace. I mean book-to-bill was at 1x at Aerospace. We've seen this above 2x in the past few quarters. But at the same time, the backlog is at record levels. Can you provide some color on the demand resilience you're seeing? Is this a demand from corporate customers, individuals? And then also, is there some sort of level of backlog where you're comfortable at so not to extend the duration of when people have to wait for their aircraft. Any color you could provide there would be really helpful.

跟進喬治在航空航天方面的問題。我的意思是航空航天公司的帳單到帳單是 1 倍。在過去的幾個季度中，我們已經看到了 2 倍以上的增長。但與此同時，積壓工作達到創紀錄水平。您能否就您所看到的需求彈性提供一些顏色？這是企業客戶、個人的需求嗎？此外，是否有某種程度的積壓讓您感到舒服，所以不要延長人們必須等待飛機的時間。您可以提供的任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

Sure. So we -- let's take your question in the reverse order. We always watch the delivery times for our aircraft to our customers. And so far, that's all been manageable. Well, just to remind you, starting in mid-February of last year, we frankly entered the hottest and most frantic demand market that I've ever seen. And the order in -- the order level in the quarter was, by any measure, spectacular. So we've seen strong U.S. demand, Fortune 500 Mid-East, Southeast Asia. And our demand -- interestingly, and I think not surprisingly, our pipeline going into the fourth quarter looks very much like the pipeline going into the third quarter. So at the moment, we've got some pretty good visibility of what orders look like.

當然。所以我們——讓我們以相反的順序來回答你的問題。我們始終關注我們的飛機交付給客戶的時間。到目前為止，這一切都是可控的。嗯，提醒一下，從去年2月中旬開始，我們坦率地進入了我見過的最火爆、最瘋狂的需求市場。無論如何，本季度的訂單水平是驚人的。因此，我們看到了美國的強勁需求，財富 500 強中東，東南亞。我們的需求——有趣的是，我認為並不奇怪，我們進入第四季度的管道看起來非常類似於進入第三季度的管道。所以目前，我們對訂單的外觀有了一些很好的了解。

Our next question comes from Cai Von Rumohr of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai Von Rumohr。

Yes. Thanks so much, and good results, Phebe. So how is the software accommodation split between the second and third quarter. And as we look going forward, with that out of the way, and presumably R&D flat to down and volume up, what should we look for about the margins in the fourth quarter and going forward?

是的。非常感謝，結果很好，菲比。那麼第二季度和第三季度的軟件住宿如何分配。在我們展望未來的過程中，隨著研發水平的下降和產量的增加，我們應該如何看待第四季度和未來的利潤率？

So we'll see some margin upside, which we alluded to or about stated, rather, in our guidance for the year. But the software fixes work almost entirely done by the end of the second quarter and the financial issue, it's about 50-50. So we're -- we like where we are. And frankly, you haven't asked this, but let me just give you a little bit of transparency around that.

因此，我們將看到一些利潤率上升，我們在今年的指導中暗示或提到了這一點。但到第二季度末，軟件修復工作幾乎全部完成，財務問題約為 50-50。所以我們 - 我們喜歡我們所處的位置。坦率地說，你沒有問這個，但讓我給你一點透明度。

The transparency of the engineering resources that -- and the cooperation between the FAA and the Gulfstream was very strong and very apparent throughout that process. So we expect that kind of relationship to continue.

在整個過程中，工程資源的透明度以及 FAA 與灣流之間的合作非常強大且非常明顯。因此，我們希望這種關係能夠繼續下去。

If I could add just one thing. Cai, there was a predicate in your question that R&D would be coming down, we don't yet expect R&D to be coming down. If you look through next year with the 700 and the 800 will remain at a sustained and potentially even elevated level next year. So I just want to make sure that point is also clear.

如果我只能添加一件事。蔡，你的問題中有一個謂詞是研發會下降，我們還不認為研發會下降。如果你看一下明年的 700 和 800 明年將保持在一個持續甚至可能更高的水平。所以我只想確保這一點也很清楚。

Yes. Good point.

是的。好點子。

Excellent. And as a follow-up, if we turn to GDIT, you mentioned $3.5 billion in protest, $17 billion in bids awaiting. How does that compare with the second quarter? And given that they lifted the occupancy restrictions at DoD in the middle of September, have we seen a pickup in any of that flowing through to bookings?

出色的。作為後續，如果我們轉向 GDIT，您提到了 35 億美元的抗議，還有 170 億美元的投標等待。與第二季度相比如何？鑑於他們在 9 月中旬取消了國防部的入住限制，我們是否看到任何預訂的回升？

Yes, we have. But tell me again what the first part of your question was?

是的我們有。但是再告訴我你問題的第一部分是什麼？

Well, you had $17 billion in business awaiting and $3.5 billion in protest.

好吧，你有 170 億美元的業務等待和 35 億美元的抗議。

Some of the protests have resolved to our favor. And these are -- when we say protest, these are items that we've won, that have been protested. And we've got one in there that's got to be approaching the federal level of number of protests. So hopefully, we'll get through that in the fourth quarter. And I think there's -- it's down somewhat, as I said, because they've resolved. But we still see a fair amount of proposals in the decision-making cycle, which has, as we've said elongated. But even given that, GDIT continues to grow.

一些抗議的結果對我們有利。這些是- 當我們說抗議時，這些是我們贏得的，已經抗議的項目。我們那裡有一個必須接近聯邦水平的抗議數量。所以希望我們能在第四季度度過難關。而且我認為有 - 正如我所說，它有所下降，因為他們已經解決了。但我們仍然在決策週期中看到相當多的提案，正如我們所說的那樣，這個週期已經拉長了。但即便如此，GDIT 仍在繼續增長。

Our next question comes from Ken Herbert of RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Ken Herbert。

I wanted to first ask on the schedule for the 7 and the 800. Is it fair to assume that resources that were diverted from the 700 are now 100% back on that program. And in the last few months...

我想首先詢問 7 和 800 的時間表。假設從 700 轉移的資源現在 100% 重新用於該計劃是否公平。而在過去的幾個月裡...

Yes.

是的。

Considering issues -- okay, great. Considering issues on the 5 and 6 have been resolved. Are you seeing anything else from the FAA that could potentially put entry to service schedules at risk?

考慮問題——好的，很好。考慮到5和6的問題已經解決了。您是否從 FAA 看到任何其他可能使進入服務計劃面臨風險的事情？

So as I said, we've cooperated very well with the FAA. We expect that to continue. I would note that we learned a lot in that process of how to work through the new software requirements from the FAA. I think that, coupled with the fact that the G700 is the most mature aircraft to enter the FAA certification process as a result of its software system and considerable and successful testing that preceded FAA review.

正如我所說，我們與 FAA 的合作非常好。我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。我會注意到，我們在這個過程中學到了很多關於如何滿足 FAA 的新軟件要求的知識。我認為，再加上 G700 是進入 FAA 認證程序的最成熟的飛機，這是由於其軟件系統和在 FAA 審查之前進行的大量成功測試的結果。

We see -- we're sticking with our at the moment with our summer 2023 estimate. But look, when we give you sort of our best guess on when the certification is, that's a result of a lot of things that we control and that we can talk about with certainty. But ultimately, this is an FAA issue, and it's the availability of their resources, and they are the regulator, and they're going to control it. So we've always tried to be transparent about that, but recognize that the U.S. government controls ultimately the pace.

我們看到了——我們目前堅持我們對 2023 年夏季的估計。但是看，當我們給你關於認證時間的最佳猜測時，這是我們控制的很多事情的結果，我們可以肯定地談論這些事情。但歸根結底，這是美國聯邦航空局的問題，這是他們資源的可用性，他們是監管者，他們將控制它。因此，我們一直試圖對此保持透明，但承認美國政府最終控制了步伐。

Okay. Very helpful. And if I could, just 1 quick follow-up. On the defense side, how would you look at the risk of your business if, for whatever reason, we have a continuing resolution that extends into calendar '23?

好的。非常有幫助。如果可以的話，只需 1 次快速跟進。在防守方，如果出於某種原因，我們有一項延續到 23 年日曆的持續解決方案，您將如何看待您的業務風險？

At the moment, we don't see a particular risk. And if we get 3 to 4 quarters in the entire year of a CR, which I find in this threat environment, very difficult to imagine. And we'd have to come back at you. But nothing we hear would suggest that it's the desire of Congress to do that.

目前，我們沒有看到特別的風險。如果我們在整個一年中獲得 3 到 4 個季度的 CR，我發現在這種威脅環境中，很難想像。我們必須回到你身邊。但我們所聽到的沒有任何跡象表明國會希望這樣做。

Our next question comes from Doug Harned of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Doug Harned。

Phebe, when you look at the demand you're seeing at Gulfstream right now, can you give us kind of a picture of how this looks? And what I mean is we're seeing a lot of things such as first-time customers going straight to large cabin jets, perhaps shifts in international versus U.S. Can you give us a picture of what that outlook is today for you? And has that changed some over the past couple of years?

菲比，當你看到你現在在灣流看到的需求時，你能給我們一張照片嗎？我的意思是，我們看到很多事情，例如首次購買的客戶直接乘坐大型機艙噴氣式飛機，也許是國際與美國的轉變。你能給我們描繪一下今天的前景對你來說是什麼嗎？在過去的幾年裡，這種情況發生了一些變化嗎？

So I think you and I, a couple of years ago, had a discussion about structural versus cyclical change. And I still think it's premature to see any to declare that there's been a structural change. We've certainly seen some increase in first-time buyers, but that was in part because a lot of wealth was created during the pandemic, the higher the pandemic. So I don't have exact data about what's in the pipeline, but I can imagine that it will be much different than this quarter, which is heavy U.S. Fortune 500, again, Southeast Asia and the Mid-East.

所以我想你和我在幾年前就結構性變化與週期性變化進行了討論。而且我仍然認為現在宣布結構性變化還為時過早。我們當然看到首次購房者有所增加，但這部分是因為在大流行期間創造了大量財富，大流行程度越高。所以我沒有關於正在籌備中的確切數據，但我可以想像這將與本季度有很大不同，本季度再次是美國財富 500 強企業，東南亞和中東。

And then just switching over, earlier when you talked about munitions, this is something that also looks like -- it looks like there's a lot of potential growth here. How do you think about this? I mean, I think of it as a high-margin business for you within Combat and potential to have orders well beyond that $370 million that you got this quarter.

然後只是切換，早些時候當你談到彈藥時，這看起來也像 - 看起來這裡有很多潛在的增長。你怎麼看？我的意思是，我認為這對你來說是 Combat 中的一項高利潤業務，並且有可能獲得遠遠超過你本季度獲得的 3.7 億美元的訂單。

So -- and I think I may have alluded to this in my remarks that our customer has expressed an interest in increasing that demand. So we're working with them on increasing production. But I think your predicate about a high-margin business is not quite based. In fact, we are -- OTS, where we do all of this work, is a high-performance organization with respect to operating leverage. But that comes from a very wide and vast portfolio. So we do okay, but I wouldn't say that they were additive.

所以 - 我想我可能在我的評論中提到了這一點，我們的客戶已經表示有興趣增加這種需求。因此，我們正在與他們合作提高產量。但我認為你關於高利潤業務的斷言並不完全有根據。事實上，我們是 - OTS，我們在其中完成所有這些工作，是一個在運營槓桿方面表現出色的組織。但這來自一個非常廣泛和龐大的投資組合。所以我們做得很好，但我不會說它們是添加劑。

So you don't think of it as a higher-margin business. I just thought traditionally, it was a higher-margin business than perhaps some of the other parts of combat vehicles, and that's not the case.

所以你不認為它是一個利潤率更高的業務。我只是傳統上認為，這可能是比戰車的其他部分更高利潤的業務，但事實並非如此。

OTS, on occasion, will be a higher-margin business, but that's largely about mix, and it's not driven by one particular line of business. They've got an awful lot of contracts and the high-velocity contract turnover. So I think that's how you should think about them.

有時，OTS 將是一項利潤率更高的業務，但這主要是關於混合業務，而不是由某一特定業務線驅動。他們有大量的合同和高速的合同周轉率。所以我認為這就是你應該如何看待它們。

Thanks, Doug. Lisa, we'll take one more question, please. This will be our final.

謝謝，道格。麗莎，我們再問一個問題，拜託。這將是我們的決賽。

Our final question today comes from Scott Deuschle of Credit Suisse.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Scott Deuschle。

Jason, I think ROIC is something that you've historically been very focused on. And honestly, it's held up really well here despite the capital that you put in the business. So just curious, as you get past the bulk of the CapEx phase of Marine working capital comes out of the business and you have margins reflected Aerospace, where do you think ROIC can go over the next few years?

Jason，我認為 ROIC 是您歷來非常關注的事情。老實說，儘管您在業務中投入了資金，但它在這裡的表現非常好。所以只是好奇，當你度過了海上營運資金的大部分資本支出階段，並且你的利潤反映了航空航天，你認為 ROIC 在未來幾年可以去哪裡？

It's a great question. Obviously, as we've been in this period of extended investment, you'd expect to see ROIC become a little bit muted as a result. And we saw a little bit of a downtick in that during that investment period. But as we emerge having had essentially the investment period behind us, to your point, we absolutely expect to see ROIC back on decline. We'll see that this year, and we expect to see it next year and beyond. So our targets over the long term ought to be back in the range as we were in prior to the investment period we entered into a few years ago, and that's what you should expect as well.

這是一個很好的問題。顯然，由於我們一直處於這一長期投資階段，因此您會期望看到 ROIC 會因此而變得有些沉默。在那個投資期間，我們看到了一點點下降。但是，當我們出現基本上已經過去的投資期時，就您而言，我們絕對希望看到 ROIC 再次下降。我們將在今年看到這一點，並希望在明年及以後看到它。因此，我們的長期目標應該回到我們幾年前進入投資期之前的範圍內，這也是你應該期待的。

Okay. Great. And then Jason, does the recently announced facility expansion of Savannah, does that have any impact to the prior guidance you gave on '23 CapEx? Or was that embedded in the 2% figure you previously talked about?

好的。偉大的。然後 Jason，最近宣布的 Savannah 設施擴建是否對您之前提供的 '23 CapEx 指導有任何影響？還是你之前提到的 2% 的數字中包含了這一點？

Yes, that's all embedded and now look we've given previously. So no change to those projections.

是的，這些都是嵌入式的，現在看看我們之前給出的。所以這些預測沒有改變。

Thank you. That concludes the Q&A session. I'll hand back to the management team for any closing remarks.

謝謝你。問答環節到此結束。我將把任何結束語交還給管理團隊。

Thank you all for joining us today. As a reminder, please refer to the General Dynamics website for both our earnings release and, of course, our highlights presentation. If you have any other questions, I can be reached at (703) 876-3117. Thank you.

感謝大家今天加入我們。提醒一下，請參閱通用動力網站以獲取我們的收益發布，當然還有我們的亮點演示。如果您有任何其他問題，可以撥打 (703) 876-3117 聯繫我。謝謝你。

Thank you all for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開線路。