伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the First Quarter 2022 Eastman Chemical Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman's website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化工2022年第一季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議將在伊士曼網站www.eastman.com上進行現場直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將把電話轉交給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部的Greg Riddle先生。先生，請講。

Thank you, Keith. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝，基斯。大家好，感謝你們加入我們。今天和我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、高級副總裁兼首席財務官威利·麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain) 以及投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Yesterday after market closed, we posted our first quarter 2022 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, our slides and the related remarks in the Investors section of our website, www.eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，我們在網站 www.eastman.com 的投資者部分發布了 2022 年第一季財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件、幻燈片和相關評論。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Cautionary statements regarding forward-looking information and certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our first quarter 2022 financial results news release, during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for full year 2021 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for first quarter 2022.

在開始之前，我將介紹兩點。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到一些關於我們計劃和預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。關於前瞻性資訊和與未來預期相關的某些因素的警示性聲明已在我們2022年第一季財務業績新聞稿、本次電話會議、之前的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的2021年全年10-K表格和即將提交的2022年第一季度10-Q表格。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the first quarter 2022 financial results news release.

其次，本報告提及的收益不包括某些非核心及非常規項目。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳及其他相關揭露，包括排除項目和調整後項目的描述，請參閱 2022 年第一季財務業績新聞稿。

As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we will now go straight into Q&A. Keith, please, let's start with our first question.

由於我們昨晚已在網站上發布了幻燈片和相應的準備好的發言稿，現在我們將直接進入問答環節。請基斯先生，我們先來問第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）我們將回答摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews 提出的第一個問題。

Wondering if you could talk a little bit about just sort of how the second U.S. project in molecular recycling is developing. I see you're now mentioning that you're talking to several global brands. I'm wondering if anything is changing about the size, scope or scale of the expected initiative. As well as, I think you had originally said you might have something formalized in the first half of this year, and here we are almost in May. So just curious for an update there.

能否請您簡單談談美國第二個分子回收計畫的進展？我看到您提到正在與幾個全球品牌洽談。我想知道這項預期計劃的規模、範圍或規模是否有任何變化。另外，我記得您最初說過可能會在今年上半年正式敲定一些計劃，現在已經快到五月了。所以很想知道這方面的最新消息。

Sure, Vincent. So on the circular economy, we're really excited about how well it's been going across all projects, right? So we've got the Kingsport project that's going to be starting up in the next 9 months. And then you've got the -- looking at the France project. And so a lot of momentum going on in those 2 fronts.

當然，文森特。所以，關於循環經濟，我們對所有專案的進展感到非常興奮，對吧？我們的金斯波特計畫將在未來9個月內啟動。然後還有——法國計畫。所以，這兩個方面都發展勢頭強勁。

As we look at the U.S. project, we would expect it to be similar in size to what we're doing in France. It would be focused on predominantly packaging and textiles since we already have a nice specialty play in the Kingsport side.

就美國計畫而言，我們預計其規模將與我們在法國的計畫類似。由於我們在金斯波特地區已經擁有不錯的專業業務，因此該項目將主要專注於包裝和紡織品。

And we do see tremendous engagement from several brands on wanting to be sort of significant offtakers of that project. When you think about just the scope and need that these brands have for recycled content in the projects and the targets they've set for 2025, they really need to endorse molecular recycling.

我們確實看到很多品牌積極參與，希望成為該專案的重要承購商。考慮到這些品牌在專案中對再生材料的需求和規模，以及他們設定的2025年目標，他們確實需要支持分子回收。

When you look at mechanical recycling, it just has limitations in truly creating a circular economy because when you look at the packaging waste, only about 20%, 30% of it can really be looped back into food-grade bottles. And so they have a real shortness of how they're going to get this recycled content, right? 70% is going to get down-cycled into strapping or part benches or in the U.S. landfill or incinerated in France. So that's just perpetuating the linear economy and not disconnecting from fossil-based feedstocks.

機械回收在真正實現循環經濟方面有其局限性，因為包裝廢棄物中只有大約20%到30%能夠真正循環利用，製成食品級包裝瓶。所以，他們真的不知道如何取得這些可回收材料，對吧？ 70%會被降級回收，製成捆紮帶或零件台，或被送往美國垃圾掩埋場，或在法國焚燒。所以，這只是延續了線性經濟，並沒有脫離對化石原料的依賴。

So mechanical is great and it's energy efficient, but it's completely insufficient, not to mention it also degrades over time. So they realize that to maintain high quality of their packaging in a long-term solution, molecular recycling has to be around to support that and enable all of the packaging waste to be recycled. I mean, our position is you should reduce and reuse as much as possible, but much of this is still going to be needed at packaging. Or in textiles, same story.

機械包裝固然很好，而且節能，但完全不夠用，更不用說它還會隨著時間的推移而降解。因此，他們意識到，為了長期保持包裝的高品質，必須採用分子回收技術來支持這一點，並確保所有包裝廢棄物都能被回收。我的意思是，我們的立場是盡可能減少和重複使用，但包裝行業仍然需要大量的分子回收技術。紡織品產業也是如此。

And we are the required solution to actually eliminate all the waste. And so they get that. They understand it. They also understand that plastic is a much more energy-efficient product than glass and aluminum. So if you first want to assume green energy is limited in the planet, then you should use the most energy-efficient product, not glass that's 4x more energy; or aluminum, 2x more energy to make than plastic.

而我們正是真正消除所有浪費的必要解決方案。所以他們明白這一點。他們理解這一點。他們也明白塑膠比玻璃和鋁更節能。所以，如果你先假設地球上的綠色能源有限，那麼你應該使用最節能的產品，而不是能耗高出4倍的玻璃，或是能耗高出2倍的鋁。

So they're very focused on this. And that's why we've got such good engagement. And they understand the sort of cost pass-through contract nature of what we're trying to do. So we feel really good about where we're at. But as you know, with these kind of very complicated long-term commitments, it takes time to work out the details.

所以他們非常關注這一點。這也是我們獲得如此良好合作的原因。他們理解我們正在嘗試的那種成本轉嫁合約的性質。所以我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。但正如你所知，對於這種非常複雜的長期承諾，需要時間來建立細節。

Sure. And maybe just as a follow-up, I noticed there were no buybacks in the quarter, but you're still committed to doing at least $1 billion in the year. So how should we think about the cadence during the balance of the year to get to that at least $1 billion goal?

當然。或許可以補充一下，我注意到本季沒有回購，但你們仍然承諾今年至少會回購10億美元。那麼，我們該如何考慮在今年剩餘時間裡以什麼樣的節奏來實現至少10億美元的目標呢？

Sure. Thanks, Vincent, for the question. We did wrap up the ASR that we launched in December here in early March, completing the $1 billion from last year. We've also, I would say, here in April closed on the transaction. We had $1 billion of cash. So I want to complement our teams and also with our Adhesives teams success as they transition. And also, we're continuing to partner providing transition services on both transactions here through the end of the year.

當然。感謝 Vincent 的提問。我們確實在三月初完成了去年 12 月啟動的 ASR 項目，完成了去年 10 億美元的交易。我想說，我們也在四月完成了這筆交易。我們當時有 10 億美元的現金。因此，我希望能夠補充我們的團隊，並支持我們的黏合劑團隊在過渡期間取得成功。此外，我們將繼續合作，為這兩項交易提供過渡服務，直到年底。

If you think about how we started Q2, we've already purchased $200 million of shares here in the month of April. And you can expect pace similar to that through the rest of the quarter. For the full year, I expect, again, to be at the $1 billion or greater as we deliver on the commitments that we made, and you can look at that on a full year basis as basically providing about $0.75 a share to offset the roughly $100 million of impact from the divestitures. I would say that's about $0.30 in the first half, growing into the second half as we complete the purchases here in Q2 and Q3.

回想一下我們第二季的開局，我們在4月就已經回購了價值2億美元的股票。您可以預計，本季剩餘時間的回購速度將維持類似水準。就全年而言，我預計回購金額將達到或超過10億美元，因為我們將兌現先前的承諾。從全年來看，我們每股回購金額約為0.75美元，可抵銷約1億美元的資產剝離影響。我認為上半年回購金額約為0.30美元，隨著我們在第二季和第三季完成回購，下半年回購金額將會成長。

We'll take our next question from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們將回答 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy 提出的下一個問題。

Yes. Mark, you affirmed the annual EPS range. I was wondering if you could speak to the seasonality in the back half of the year as you're recovering operationally at Kingsport. Speak to 3Q versus 2Q and then the seasonality in fourth quarter.

是的。馬克，您確認了年度每股收益範圍。我想問一下，由於金斯波特的營運正在恢復，您能否談談下半年的季節性因素？請您談談第三季與第二季的對比，以及第四季的季節性因素。

For example, I think you mentioned you got a plant turnaround in Chemical Intermediates later in the year. How do you see that unfolding through the coming quarters?

例如，我記得您提到過，今年稍後你們的化學中間體工廠實現了扭虧為盈。您認為未來幾季的情況會如何？

Thanks, Kevin. And a very important question. We spend a lot of time trying to think about how our cadence of earnings and value creation go through the year.

謝謝，凱文。這是一個非常重要的問題。我們花了很多時間思考全年獲利和價值創造的節奏如何。

When you think about this year and you look at sort of the guidance we gave for the second quarter and add that together with what the results that we had in the first quarter, the first quarter (sic) [first half] looks to be around $4.75, if you look at -- use the midpoint of our second quarter guidance. So to get to our midpoint of our full year guidance, you're talking about $5 a share in the back half, which is about 5% higher than the first half, to your sequential question, or $0.75 a share on a year-over-year basis.

回顧今年，看看我們給出的第二季度業績指引，再加上我們第一季的業績，第一季（原文如此）[上半年]的業績看起來在4.75美元左右，如果你看一下——使用我們第二季度業績指引的中點。那麼，我們全年業績指引的中點是，下半年每股收益為5美元，比上半年高出約5%，也就是你提到的環比增長，或者說，同比每股收益為0.75美元。

So that's a strong back half quarter for us. We don't really have it normal that we can look to in the past because we've had so many different events that our first or second half floated if you look at 2018 to now. But we can recognize that's a little bit stronger than normal.

所以，這對我們來說是一個強勁的後半季。我們過去的表現並不像往常那麼正常，因為我們經歷了太多不同的事件，如果你回顧2018年至今，我們的上半年或下半年表現都不太理想。但我們可以肯定，這比平常強一些。

And I think the easiest way to talk about it is on a year-over-year basis. And when you really think about delivering that $5 a share in the back half of the year, it really comes down to a question of what is AM going to deliver relative to what normalization in CI occurs? Because obviously, the steam line event in the first quarter, we had a sort of significant setback on that to the first half of the year.

我認為最簡單的方法是以同比來衡量。當你真正考慮在下半年實現每股5美元的盈利時，最終要考慮的問題是，相對於CI的正常化水平，AM的盈利情況如何？顯然，第一季的蒸汽管道事件，對我們上半年造成了重大挫折。

So when you look at it and do the math on sort of the midpoint of our guidance for the full year of AM of $650 million to $700 million, that means we basically have to be about $200 million over the back half of last year.

因此，當您查看併計算我們對 AM 全年預期的中間值（6.5 億美元至 7 億美元）時，這意味著我們基本上必須比去年下半年多出 2 億美元。

Now roughly half of that -- actually probably greater than half of that, will come from how we're managing spreads. So almost all of the spread compression last year that occurred in this segment was in the back half of last year. We've been incredibly successful in implementing price increases in the -- to begin the first quarter and get the spreads that we were aiming to get that we discussed in January, and that sequential improvement in spreads is still expected in the second quarter. So we have a lot of great momentum in the pricing actions we've taken, including implementing a whole set of additional price increases in this month, to cover the inflation that occurred through the first quarter.

現在，大約一半——實際上可能超過一半——將來自於我們對價差的管理。因此，去年該部門幾乎所有的價差壓縮都發生在去年下半年。我們在第一季度初就非常成功地實施了提價，並實現了我們在一月份討論的目標價差，而且預計第二季度價差仍將持續改善。因此，我們在採取的定價措施方面勢頭強勁，包括在本月實施一系列額外的漲價，以彌補第一季出現的通膨。

So you've got $100 million -- greater than $100 million, really, of spread improvement in the back half of last -- in the back half of this year relative to the compression that occurred in the back half of last year, right? So recovering that compression, if you will. So that's half of it, or more than that.

所以，相較於去年下半年的利差壓縮，今年下半年的利差改善幅度超過了1億美元，對吧？也就是說，相當於恢復了先前的利差壓縮。所以，這是一半，甚至更多。

And then you've got strong volume growth. And the volume growth in the back half will be a little bit different. First of all, you've got incredibly unmet need, especially in specialty plastics, given how we were not able to serve that market. So markets are incredibly strong. No one has inventory. So the likelihood of destocking in the fourth quarter is much less because there's nothing to destock.

然後，銷量增長強勁。下半年的銷售成長會略有不同。首先，我們面臨著巨大的未滿足需求，尤其是在特種塑膠領域，因為我們之前未能滿足該市場的需求。所以市場表現非常強勁。沒有人有庫存。因此，第四季度去庫存的可能性要小得多，因為沒有庫存可去。

You've got the automotive market, we're assuming, starts to get better in the back half relative to the first half. And we expect logistics to -- constraints to ease, which is really one of the bigger limiters of our ability to sort of serve demand.

我們預計，下半年汽車市場會比上半年開始好轉。我們預期物流方面的限制會有所緩解，而物流方面的問題其實是限制我們滿足需求能力的一大因素。

And then you've got the production catch up, right? So we lost about $75 million of volume in the first quarter, and we think roughly half of that will be recovered through the year. But most of that recovery is going to occur in the third and fourth quarter because we're just ramping up production. And with logistics these days, getting all that out the door and recognizing that in the second quarter is going to be a bit of a challenge. So a lot of factors that drive volume to be a lot better.

然後你就得趕上產量了，對吧？我們第一季的銷售損失了大約7500萬美元，我們預計全年大約能恢復一半。但大部分的恢復將在第三季和第四季發生，因為我們正在提高產量。考慮到目前的物流狀況，在第二季完成所有生產並實現產量目標將是一個不小的挑戰。所以，有很多因素會推動銷售大幅提升。

So then you weigh that against what's going to happen in CI normalization. And I think we've taken our standard approach of assuming it's going to normalize at some point. And for now, we're expecting that in the back half of the year, and there's some higher growth spend.

所以，你需要將這一點與CI正常化後的情況來權衡。我認為我們採取了標準做法，假設它會在某個時候恢復正常。目前，我們預計下半年會出現這種情況，而且成長支出會增加。

So you put all that together, you net out, you're going to come up with positive EBIT relative to last year in a meaningful way. And then you've got $0.45 a share from the share repurchase we're doing to replace the divested earnings. So $5 is a very reasonable improvement to get when you think about it and those dynamics, and that gets you that sort of 5% sequential improvement versus the first half.

所以，把所有這些加在一起，扣除淨額，你就能得出相對於去年而言相當可觀的正息稅前利潤。此外，我們透過股票回購來彌補剝離的收益，每股收益為0.45美元。所以，考慮到這些因素，每股收益5美元是一個非常合理的成長，這使得我們能夠實現與上半年相比5%的環比成長。

Great. And then as a follow-up, Mark, have auto production forecasts bottomed at this point, from your perspective? I appreciate any updated thoughts on what you're seeing in terms of order books and expectations for that particular end-use market.

好的。接下來，馬克，您覺得汽車產量預測現在是否已經觸底？如果您能提供關於訂單情況以及特定終端市場預期的最新信息，我將非常感激。

So on the auto market, we had an expectation of demand being relatively stable in the first quarter and the second quarter and then modestly improving in the back half of the year. I'd say first quarter turned out to be a little bit softer than our expectations, and we expect the second quarter to be down a bit relative to the first quarter, principally due to the Ukrainian war impact on European auto production and some of the slowdowns we're seeing in the COVID lockdown situation in China.

因此，就汽車市場而言，我們預計第一季和第二季的需求將相對穩定，並在下半年略有改善。但我認為第一季的實際表現略低於我們的預期，我們預計第二季的銷售量將較第一季略有下降，這主要是由於烏克蘭戰爭對歐洲汽車生產的影響，以及中國新冠疫情封鎖措施導致的產量放緩。

So a little bit lower base than what we started the year with, but we still expect it to improve in the back half of the year as China gets its COVID situation under control, is our base assumption, as well as the European situation starts to stabilize, supply chains start to improve.

因此，基數比年初略低，但我們仍預計，隨著中國控制住新冠疫情，以及歐洲局勢開始穩定、供應鏈開始改善，下半年情況將會有所改善。

But we're still looking at an annual number in our forecast that's below last year a bit. Obviously, LMC is above last year in their current forecast, and we're not using that. Just to be clear, we're using something lower than that in what's loaded into our forecast. So I think we're taking a reasonable approach to what we're estimating and what we're seeing in the marketplace.

但我們預測的年度數字仍然略低於去年。顯然，LMC 目前的預測高於去年，而我們沒有使用這個數字。需要明確的是，我們在預測中使用的是低於這個數字的數字。所以我認為我們對估算結果和市場現狀採取了合理的方法。

We'll take our next question from Josh Spector with UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀的 Josh Spector 提出的下一個問題。

I guess just specifically on AFP, I'd be curious on the new portfolio, if you'd comment on a couple of things. One, how you're thinking about longer-term growth in that restructured business now versus GDP or whatever metric you look at in that perspective.

我想就AFP來說，我對新投資組合很感興趣，請問您能否評論以下幾點。第一，您現在如何看待重組後業務的長期成長，而不是GDP或其他您從這個角度看待的指標。

And then also, you have a relatively strong first half in that business your guidance leaves it pretty open-ended in terms of where things could be in the second half. And just wondering, what drives perhaps a lower second versus first half in AFP? Or is that not the right way to think about that earnings trajectory?

另外，你們上半年的業務表現相對強勁，所以你們的業績指引對下半年的前景沒有給予明確的預測。請問，是什麼原因導致AFP下半年的業績低於上半年？或者說，這不是對獲利軌跡的正確解讀嗎？

Yes. So we're really excited about the new AFP. It's a business that's very focused. It has a lot of great end market growth rates that are both stable in things like personal care, animal nutrition, and has opportunities for accelerated growth in places like automotive and aviation recovery, so -- and B&C has also been incredibly strong. So end markets are great.

是的。我們對新的AFP感到非常興奮。這是一個非常專注的業務。它在許多終端市場都擁有出色的成長率，這些成長率在個人護理、動物營養等領域保持穩定，並且在汽車和航空業復甦等領域也擁有加速成長的機會，B&C也表現得非常強勁。所以終端市場表現非常好。

Like AM, our innovation is starting to really gain traction. So it's creating the ability to grow faster than the underlying markets. When you look at Tetrashield going into packaging, you look at how we're moving into higher-value formulations in animal nutrition versus just selling the organic acids. The microbead opportunity, not really relevant to this year, but significant upside in the future. So there's a lot of growth programs that are out there that allows us to grow better than the underlying market.

就像積層製造一樣，我們的創新也開始真正獲得重視。因此，它創造了超越基礎市場成長速度的能力。當你看到Tetrashield進入包裝領域時，你就會明白我們如何進軍動物營養領域更高價值的配方，而不僅僅是銷售有機酸。微珠的機會，雖然與今年不太相關，但未來潛力巨大。所以，有很多成長項目可以幫助我們超越基礎市場。

And then on the spread side, similar to AM, there's some spread recovery that's going to be in this year relative to last year. It's not quite as large as AM, but that accelerated path of inflation last year, prices were still catching up in this business as well.

就利差而言，與AM類似，今年的利差相對於去年將有所回升。雖然回升幅度不如AM那麼大，但由於去年通膨加速，該產業的價格仍在追趕。

So you see price implementation being very aggressive in the AFP business to cover all of those raw material, energy and distribution cost headwinds. And we did a great job in the first quarter in getting prices up to sort of cover that and improve spreads. That will continue to be true year-over-year in the second quarter. But sequentially, we'll see the second quarter come off a little bit just because it takes a year for the CPTs -- I'm sorry, it takes a quarter for the cost pass-through contracts to catch up.

因此，您將看到AFP業務的價格執行非常積極，以彌補所有原材料、能源和分銷成本的不利因素。我們在第一季做得很好，提高了價格，基本上彌補了這些不利因素，並改善了價差。第二季的價格將繼續維持年增。但環比來看，我們會看到第二季度的價格略有下降，因為CPT（成本轉嫁合約）需要一年——抱歉，成本轉嫁合約需要一個季度才能跟上。

So overall, a very strong first half, both by strong volume, that 10% volume mix that will continue into the second quarter, and spread improvement.

因此，總體而言，上半年表現非常強勁，不僅交易量強勁，而且 10% 的交易量佔比將持續到第二季​​度，而且利差也有所改善。

As we look to the back half, there's some seasonality, we're just assuming, in how demand comes off in some of these industries, like B&C and the ag business, where that will soften up a bit in the second half of the year. And we think that we'll see spreads continue to improve relative to the back half of last year. So it's still going to be a very good second half, but not quite as strong as the first half.

展望下半年，我們假設一些行業（例如生物製品和化妝品行業以及農業行業）的需求會受到一些季節性因素的影響，這些行業的需求在下半年會略有減弱。我們認為，與去年下半年相比，利差將持續改善。因此，下半年仍然會表現良好，但不如上半年強勁。

We'll take our next question from Mike Leithead with Barclays.

我們將回答巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead 提出的下一個問題。

Great. Maybe just 3 quick-hitters on the methanolysis facility in Tennessee. So first, it looks like maybe a slight delay with supply chain. So can you just flesh out what's moving the time line, whether it's equipment or labor?

太好了。關於田納西州甲醇分解設施，大概只有三個快速問題。首先，供應鏈似乎略有延遲。能否具體說明哪些因素影響了進度，是設備還是人工？

Second, is the $250 million capital cost still the right number for the facility?

其次，2.5億美元的資本成本對於該設施來說仍然是合適的數字嗎？

And maybe finally, if we do get mechanical completion in 1Q '23, when should investors anticipate it sort of reaching kind of full commercial operations there?

最後，如果我們確實在 2023 年第一季實現機械完工，那麼投資者應該何時預期它會在那裡實現全面商業運營？

Sure. So when it comes to the sort of 1-quarter delay we've identified the mechanical completion, it's equipment-related. Just like the automotive industry, getting all the parts to build your plant isn't the easiest to do in this environment. The team has done an extraordinary job of locking down and securing all those components being supplied. But just being realistic, in the environment we're in right now, we expect about a quarter delay. It's not a labor issue, it's just a supply chain issue.

當然。所以，說到我們所謂的機械完工延遲一個季度，其實是與設備相關的。就像汽車產業一樣，在這種環境下，取得建造工廠所需的所有零件並非易事。我們的團隊在鎖定和確保所有零件供應方面做得非常出色。但現實地說，在我們目前的環境下，我們預計延遲時間約為一個季度。這不是勞動力問題，而是供應鏈問題。

When it comes to the capital, we're still on track for the capital. We did a lot of securing, especially on the equipment side, before the inflation started, when we were -- when you go back to when we actually started this production. So we think we're in a good position to manage that and keep that around that number.

說到資本，我們的資本運作仍在按計劃進行。在通貨膨脹開始之前，也就是我們真正開始生產的時候，我們做了許多保障工作，尤其是在設備方面。因此，我們認為我們有能力管理好這些資金，並將資金維持在這個數字左右。

And then when it comes to start-up, we're always going to -- aiming for a start-up in the first half of next year. We always assume that there will be some bumps along the road in how we get there. So we don't think there's going to be a significant delay in the start-up of the facility for serving customers. So by summertime, you're making recycled content off of this facility and supplying the market and building to full run rates by the end of the year, and you'll get a full year effect as you get into 2024.

至於啟動，我們一直致力於在明年上半年啟動。我們始終認為，在實現這一目標的過程中會遇到一些坎坷。因此，我們認為工廠的啟動和客戶服務不會有顯著的延遲。到夏天，工廠就能生產再生材料，供應市場，並在年底達到滿載運轉，到2024年，就能看到全年的效益。

You got to remember, this is different than a specialty plant in how it ramps up and fills out because, while the specialties will grow like they normally do and not be a light switch in how you fill out the plant, we have the ability to take all the excess monomer from this methanolysis plant and make PET or textiles for packaging in the clothing market and sort of ramp the plant full pretty quickly as the operations come up to full levels in those markets. And then we just mix, upgrade as we grow the specialties relative to serving those markets from this plant.

你要記住，這與特種工廠的產能提升和產能填滿方式不同。特種產品會像往常一樣成長，不會對工廠的產能填滿產生直接影響。而我們有能力回收甲醇分解工廠中所有多餘的單體，生產服裝市場所需的PET或紡織品包裝，並隨著這些市場的產能達到滿載狀態，迅速提升工廠的產能。之後，我們只需根據工廠服務這些市場的情況，對特種產品進行調配和升級。

So a much faster ROIC in this kind of facility with that flex than what you would normally get in a specialty plant.

因此，這種具有靈活性的設施的投資回報率比通常在專業工廠中獲得的要快得多。

We'll take our next question from Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc.

我們將回答 KeyBanc 的 Aleksey Yefremov 提出的下一個問題。

As we get closer to the start-up of this methanolysis plant, Mark, I was just trying to understand how economics might work in the real world. For example, crude jumped year-to-date. Would it have been a tailwind for your methanolysis margins? Or a headwind? Or not a factor? So in other words, when oil moves like this, is the cost of your feedstock changing? And if so, are you able to kind of promptly raise prices?

馬克，隨著甲醇分解工廠投產日期的臨近，我想了解在現實世界中經濟因素是如何運作的。例如，今年迄今原油價格大幅上漲。這對你們的甲醇分解利潤來說是順風嗎？還是逆風？或者根本不是因素？換句話說，當油價出現這樣的波動時，你們的原料成本會改變嗎？如果是的話，你們能迅速提高價格嗎？

Yes. So higher oil prices is very good for methanolysis, all right? So the competitive material in the marketplace, which is virgin PET based on fossil feedstocks, is connected to oil. So the price that's in the marketplace for those products goes up pretty consistently every day with the price of oil. So that raises their alternate product on the marketplace.

是的。所以油價上漲對甲醇分解非常有利，對吧？市場上的競爭材料，也就是基於化石原料的原生PET，與石油息息相關。因此，這些產品在市場上的價格每天都會隨著油價的上漲而持續上漲。這也就增加了市場上替代產品的數量。

The reality though is our product, both its feedstock and its -- and our final price, is not really that connected to the virgin PET market anymore because they're buying it on the value proposition of recycled content. And right now, what we're seeing is those prices, both historically and in this environment, are holding up to be substantially higher than the sort of fossil-based polymer. If you look at Europe, roughly about a 50% premium for that recycled content, value proposition of creating a circular economy versus perpetuating a fossil-based linear economy. So the market's changed and structurally so.

但現實是，我們的產品，包括原料和最終價格，與原生PET市場不再那麼緊密相連，因為他們購買我們的產品是基於其回收成分的價值主張。目前，我們看到的是，無論是從歷史價格還是在當前環境下，這些價格都遠高於化石基聚合物。看看歐洲，回收成分的溢價大約是50%，其價值主張是創造循環經濟，而不是延續基於化石的線性經濟。所以，市場已經發生了變化，而且是結構性的變化。

When it comes to the value of our feedstock, there may be sort of a modest increase in the prices, but the reality is it's going to landfill, right? The price of landfill isn't changing with the price of oil. It's being incinerated, same thing, not really changing dramatically. Or these low-value applications, like park benches or strapping, and where this product -- this sort of waste feedstock is going that the mechanical recyclers can't upcycle into applications.

說到我們原料的價值，價格可能會略有上漲，但現實是它們最終都會被填埋，對吧？填埋的價格不會隨著油價而改變。它們被焚燒，也一樣，價格變化不大。或用於一些低價值的用途，例如公園長椅或捆紮帶，這類廢棄原料最終會被機械回收商用來進行升級改造，轉化為其他用途。

So we're not seeing a significant increase in feedstocks just because the price of oil is up.

因此，我們不會因為油價上漲就看到原料價格大幅上漲。

We'll take our next question from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答德意志銀行的 David Begleiter 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, just on the Q2 guidance in terms of the earnings bridge, you think about the $0.80 impact from the Kingsport incident and the $2.06 base. You look at the midpoint of Q2 guidance is $2.75. How do you -- what are the offsets to that sort of bridge from Q1 to Q2 with the Kingsport incident layered in?

馬克，就第二季獲利預測而言，您認為金斯波特事件對獲利的影響為0.80美元，而基數為2.06美元。您認為第二季獲利預測的中間值是2.75美元。考慮到金斯波特事件的影響，您認為第一季到第二季的獲利預測與基數之間的差距如何？

Yes. Great question, Dave. And that's exactly how we look at it. We had a phenomenally strong first quarter, when you back out the steam line event, at $2.85. It's just tremendous success, well above how we guided in January for the first quarter. Unfortunately, the event happened. But the demand for those products is very much there, so that $125 million hit which easily shown up in the quarter.

是的。戴夫，問得好。我們的看法也正是如此。撇開蒸汽管道事件的影響，我們第一季的業績表現異常強勁，達到了2.85美元。這真是巨大的成功，遠高於我們1月對第一季的預期。不幸的是，蒸汽管道事件發生了。但這些產品的需求仍然很大，所以1.25億美元的損失在本季很容易就反映出來了。

So we do start looking at it and saying, "Okay. From $2.85, which is the run rate now that the event is behind us, what's the up and down relative to that number in the second quarter?"

因此，我們開始研究它並說：“好的。從 2.85 美元（這是事件結束後目前的運行率）開始，第二季度相對於該數字的漲幅和跌幅是多少？”

So on the upside, we expect continued strong demand that we saw in the first quarter and the significant mix improvement that comes with that, that's part of our story in our specialties. The pricing actions are doing a phenomenally good job of keeping pace real time with inflation that occurred through the first quarter. So spread sequentially will improve from first quarter to second quarter in AM and Fibers. And then CI is holding up and being stronger than expected. So that will be quite stable sequentially from first to second quarter.

因此，從好的方面來看，我們預計第一季的強勁需求將持續，並隨之帶來產品組合的顯著改善，這是我們在專業領域的成就的一部分。定價策略表現得非常好，能夠與第一季的通膨保持同步。因此，積層製造和光纖業務的利差將從第一季到第二季較上季改善。而CI業務也將維持穩定，並且強於預期。因此，從第一季到第二季度，其環比增長將相當穩定。

And so all of that leads to a higher number, right? So then what -- why is it? Why are we guiding to something a little bit less than first quarter?

所以所有這些都會導致更高的數字，對吧？那麼，為什麼呢？為什麼我們的預期會比第一季略低？

First of all, the $50 million of accelerated cost accounting doesn't repeat. So that's a pure tailwind, Q1 to Q2. But the $75 million in the steam line event that's related to production, that doesn't catch up in a quarter. So it takes some time to get production back up, to get it on ships and trains and get it delivered through this quarter. And there's only so much excess capacity that we have to make up that lost production. So that's going to take the whole year to sort of recover that. And we're only expecting to recover about half of it through the year. So you've got a bit of a headwind from the event on the production side.

首先，5000萬美元的加速成本計算不會重複。所以，這對第一季到第二季來說是一個純粹的順風。但與生產相關的蒸汽管道事件造成的7,500萬美元損失，在一個季度內無法彌補。因此，恢復生產、將貨物裝上輪船和火車並在本季交付需要一些時間。而且，我們能夠彌補的過剩產能有限。所以，這需要一整年的時間才能恢復。我們預計全年只能恢復約一半的產能。所以，這次事件對生產方面造成了一些阻力。

Then you've got an AFP -- remember, a good portion of their pricing is connected to cost pass-through contracts. We had a lot of inflation in the first quarter. The way those contracts work, it doesn't really catch up until July 1. So there's just a lag in that part of AFP and how prices catch it up. They will. You saw the benefit of that in the first quarter, based on catching up to fourth quarter raw materials. And this will happen as we go into the third quarter. So there's a bit of a headwind from that. So AFP will be slightly down relative to first quarter.

然後你會看到AFP——記住，他們的定價很大一部分與成本轉嫁合約有關。第一季通貨膨脹率很高。按照這些合約的運作方式，通貨膨脹要到7月1日才能真正趕上。所以AFP的這部分價格以及價格如何趕上來存在滯後。他們會的。你在第一季看到了這種做法的好處，因為它趕上了第四季的原物料價格。而這種情況會在我們進入第三季時發生。所以這會帶來一些阻力。所以AFP的價格會比第一季略有下降。

And then you've got a step up in growth spend as we start ramping up the circular investments. And then there's just macro uncertainty, right? So we've adjusted our outlook, as I said earlier, about auto just being a little bit softer sequentially. As well as China and the COVID lockdowns is certainly having an impact on some of our businesses, like performance films, and in general, how we bring product into the country to get it delivered with all the different various lockdowns. So there's some sort of headwind there that we're trying to estimate, but highly uncertain on how that's going to play out for the quarter.

隨著我們開始加大循環投資，成長支出也會隨之增加。此外，還有宏觀不確定性，對吧？正如我之前所說，我們調整了對汽車業務的預期，預計環比成長會略有放緩。此外，中國和新冠疫情的封鎖措施無疑對我們的一些業務產生了影響，例如高性能薄膜，以及總體而言，在各種封鎖措施的影響下，我們如何將產品運往中國並交付到中國市場。因此，我們正在努力評估一些不利因素，但對於這些因素在本季將如何發展，我們仍有很大不確定性。

Overall though, put it together, it's still a 10% increase year-over-year. So it's great momentum to building towards our full year guidance.

整體而言，年成長仍達10%。這為我們實現全年目標提供了強勁動力。

Got it. And just on the CI spread normalization in the back half of the year. Is that more supply-driven or demand-driven? And which products in particular are you looking for the spreads to normalize first?

明白了。關於下半年CI利差的正常化，請問這更多是由供應驅動還是需求驅動？您特別希望哪些產品的利差會先正常化？

Yes. So in the spread normalization, we've obviously been in very tight market conditions since the second quarter, really since the beginning of the first quarter of last year. And CI has benefited from that, like many other companies in these intermediates. And the markets remain tight, and that's demand-driven. Demand is incredibly strong for all of the products, or customers that we're serving with those intermediates. And that's obviously holding up in the first quarter, expected to hold up in the second quarter.

是的。因此，在利差正常化過程中，我們顯然自第二季以來，實際上自去年第一季初以來就一直處於非常緊張的市場環境中。 CI 和許多其他中間體公司一樣，都從中受益。市場仍然緊張，這是由需求驅動的。所有產品，或者說我們用這些中間體服務的客戶，需求都非常強勁。這種需求在第一季顯然保持了下去，預計在第二季也會維持下去。

And there's also supply-driven issues that are creating constraints across both olefins and acetyls, as you can see in the many announcements of operational issues across the planet.

此外，還有供應驅動的問題，這些問題對烯烴和乙醯基產生了限制，正如您在全球許多營運問題公告中所看到的那樣。

And the third issue that's new now that we're still thinking through, is the U.S. has just picked up a new advantaged cost structure relative to the energy costs now in Europe and Asia. So that structural cost improvement is not yet factored into sort of how that's going to play out for the back half of the year or years ahead. But that's probably, I would call it an upside if that continues to be true, to how we're looking at our forecast.

第三個新問題是，我們仍在思考，那就是美國剛剛獲得了相對於歐洲和亞洲能源成本更具優勢的成本結構。因此，這種結構性成本改善尚未被納入今年下半年或未來幾年的預測中。但如果這種情況持續下去，我認為這對我們的預測來說可能是一個利好。

So it's really a combination of both, right? And we're assuming that the economy start to slow down a bit with all the inflation out there, the China issues, Ukraine-Russia issues, so market softened a little bit. We assume people will get around to running their plants more reliably, so supply will start to improve, and that creates some softness.

所以這其實是兩者的結合，對吧？我們假設經濟會因為通膨、中國問題以及烏克蘭-俄羅斯問題而開始放緩，所以市場會稍微疲軟。我們假設人們會開始更可靠地運作工廠，因此供應將開始改善，從而帶來一些疲軟。

But I think we all know that it's hard to call when this normalization is going to occur. And so we've put in something to estimate that there's some normalization back to sort of what we called sort of normal margins. But it's, frankly, anyone's guess when that's actually going to occur. There's no specific data any of us have to make that call.

但我想我們都知道，很難預測這種正常化何時會發生。所以我們做了一些預測，希望能夠恢復到我們所說的正常範圍。但坦白說，誰也說不準什麼時候真正會發生這種情況。我們目前還沒有具體的數據來做判斷。

We'll take our next question from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們將回答花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, there's a lot of discussion about inflation in the economy and all that. Where you sit, from your vantage point, do you think 1Q was the peak inflation? Inflation could be raw materials, trucking, logistics, truck drivers, all that stuff. Or do you think inflation has peaked when you look at the second derivative of your businesses and you talk to your own people? Or do you think inflation will continue to go higher?

馬克，關於經濟中的通貨膨脹等等，大家討論很多。從您的角度來看，您認為第一季是通膨的峰值嗎？通貨膨脹可能涉及原料、卡車運輸、物流、卡車司機等等。或者，從您業務的二次衍生品來看，並且您與自己的員工交談，您認為通貨膨脹已經達到高峰了嗎？或者，您認為通貨膨脹還會繼續走高嗎？

Well, I think inflation is certainly going higher as you go into the second quarter. When you look at just all the price increases that we had to implement in April to catch up to the inflation that occurred through the first quarter in our raw materials and energy costs, that's now higher prices in the second quarter flowing into our customers. And they're going to take all those higher prices and they're going to have to flow it into their products, which will go through this quarter into the third quarter. So I don't think we're close to how inflation is going to peak downstream of us because this has all got multiple steps to be passed on through multiple quarters to get to the consumer.

我認為，進入第二季度，通膨肯定會進一步上升。看看我們4月份為了彌補第一季原物料和能源成本上漲而實施的所有漲價，這些漲價現在流入了我們消費者的口袋。消費者將承擔這些漲價帶來的損失，並將其轉化為產品，而這些產品將從本季一直延續到第三季。所以，我認為通膨遠未達到峰值，因為這一切都需要經過多個步驟，經過多個季度才能傳導到消費者身上。

When you think about the inflation of our raw materials and energy costs, what we're assuming right now is we are sort of peaking out in the second quarter, and that it doesn't get worse as we go into the third quarter and the fourth quarter. In fact, maybe raw materials stabilize and come off a little bit in the back half of the year from the second quarter. So that's what's embedded in our forecast on our cost side.

考慮到原物料和能源成本的通膨，我們目前的假設是，第二季價格將達到峰值，進入第三季和第四季後不會進一步惡化。事實上，原物料價格或許會在第二季後趨於穩定，並在下半年略有回落。這就是我們對成本方面的預測。

But if you're asking downstream, we've got, I think, multiple quarters before inflation reaches the consumer, all of what's happening to our part of the industry, because we're just so far up the value system.

但如果你問下游，我認為，在通貨膨脹影響消費者之前，我們還有多個季度的時間，我們這個行業正在發生的一切，因為我們在價值體系中處於很高的位置。

Right. So consumer inflation would continue for the next couple of quarters is what you're saying.

對。所以您說的是，消費者通膨將在未來幾季持續下去。

For customers and consumers, yes. For us, we think second quarter is peak.

對於客戶和消費者來說，是的。對我們來說，我們認為第二季是高峰。

Right. And just you mentioned on methanolysis, you're putting together these contracts to buy raw materials. How do these contracts -- how are they structured? Is it fixed price or the price goes up with energy?

對。剛才你提到了甲醇分解，你們正在製定這些合約來購買原料。這些合約是如何建構的？是固定價格還是隨著能源消耗而上漲？

And the same thing on the other side. When you sell your product, I would presume that you would sell it at a premium because it has lower carbon footprint. And so how does those contracts look like? Can you just sort of give us the terms in how these contracts are structured?

另一邊也是一樣。當你銷售產品時，我猜你會以溢價出售，因為它的碳足跡較低。那麼這些合約是什麼樣的呢？能具體解釋一下這些合約的具體條款嗎？

Sure. So there's a spectrum of contracts that we're securing when it comes to feedstock based on the source of the material. So there are some contracts that are exactly what you said, where they're going to -- the alternative value is landfill. And so the pricing of that is set in a very stable manner that doesn't have an alternative value to drive the price and value that material up or down. And we're getting long-term contracts with sources of waste on that front.

當然。所以，在原料方面，我們會根據材料來源簽訂一系列合約。有些合約正如你所說，它們的替代價值是填埋。因此，這些材料的定價非常穩定，不會因為替代價值而導致材料價格和價值的波動。我們正在與廢棄物處理方簽訂長期合約。

There are other products where you're competing maybe against a park bench or strapping. So down-cycled applications that perpetuate the linear economy, and so we have to look at the alternative values of those applications and how that might change. So there will be some connection to where the price of oil goes, where alternative market values go, that we have to compare our pricing to sort of secure that. So it will be connected to some either cost- or price-based index.

還有一些產品，你可能要和公園長椅或捆紮器競爭。這些降級應用可以延續線性經濟，因此我們必須研究這些應用的替代價值以及它們可能如何變化。因此，油價走勢、替代市場價值走勢都會與這些產品相關，我們必須比較我們的定價以確保這一點。因此，定價將與某些基於成本或價格的指數掛鉤。

So there's a lot of different sources. But all of them, when you look at what drives them up or down, they're actually relatively stable compared to where the price of oil goes every day on the sort of fossil feedstock-based market.

所以有很多不同的來源。但所有這些，當你觀察是什麼驅動它們上漲或下跌時，你會發現，與以化石原料為基礎的市場中石油價格的每日波動相比，它們實際上相對穩定。

And then you have to keep in mind that -- on the customer side of things, there's 2 models we have in our pricing. So in our specialty business, pricing is going to be based, as always, on value. As I said earlier, the value of recycled content is quite high, right? So it's not a speculation. You can look at just for PET for packaging, which is a relatively low-value application compared to our specialties, is trading, on average, 50% premium to the fossil-based feedstocks.

然後你必須記住——在客戶方面，我們的定價有兩種模式。在我們的特種業務中，定價將一如既往地基於價值。正如我之前所說，再生材料的價值相當高，對吧？所以這不是猜測。你可以看看用於包裝的PET，與我們的特種產品相比，它是一種價值相對較低的應用，其交易價格平均比化石原料高出50%。

So plenty of premium there to create the circular economy and get waste out of the environment and lower the carbon footprint impact of our operations and the Scope 3 of our customers when they think about improving their overall carbon footprint. So they are paying a premium for that already. That's not speculation, that's just a fact.

因此，為了打造循環經濟、減少環境廢棄物、降低我們營運以及客戶在考慮改善其整體碳足跡時對範圍三的影響，我們付出了高昂的溢價。所以，他們已經為此付出了高昂的代價。這不是猜測，而是事實。

But you have to remember that -- and the specialty pricing will just be based on that value and we'll do it like we do pricing today. But for the PET and the textile applications -- the packaging and textile applications, as we said, we're not taking risk on the difference between our feedstock costs and market price, we're doing cost pass-through contracts that give us predictable, stable margins. Otherwise, we won't build these plants and invest them because I don't want to get caught in trying to speculate where the feedstock costs are going to go relative to market prices. That's the Airgas model that we're taking for those applications. So we're not trying to exploit the spread expansion or take a spread contraction risk on those high-volume applications that baseload the second and third plants.

但你必須記住——特種產品的定價將完全基於該價值，我們將像現在一樣定價。但對於PET和紡織品應用——包裝和紡織品應用，正如我們所說，我們不會承擔原料成本與市場價格之間差異的風險，我們簽訂的是成本轉嫁合同，這能讓我們獲得可預測且穩定的利潤。否則，我們不會建造和投資這些工廠，因為我不想陷入猜測原料成本相對於市場價格的走勢的泥淖。這就是我們針對這些應用程式所採用的Airgas模式。因此，我們不會試圖利用價差擴大的風險，也不會承擔那些為第二和第三家工廠提供基載的大批量應用的價差收縮風險。

We'll take our next question from Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

我們將回答美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe 提出的下一個問題。

So as we look at the year-over-year bridge to 2023, maybe it's early, but it seems like -- particularly for AM, it seems like the add-back of $50 million on the accounting side is maybe a starting point. But you won't recover the full $100 million maybe -- or the $75 million of additional, I think you said, so maybe half. But you're also going to get that back through the course of the year. So I guess what -- where do we -- where should we start think about building a bridge for next year?

因此，當我們展望2023年的年增速時，或許現在還為時過早，但似乎——尤其是對於AM而言，在會計方面增加5000萬美元或許是一個起點。但你可能無法收回全部1億美元——或者額外的7500萬美元，我記得你說的是，所以可能只能收回一半。但你也會在一年內就拿回這筆錢。所以，我想，我們該從哪裡開始考慮為明年搭建橋樑呢？

I think that with AM, you start with the bridge that occurs every year. So when you look at Advanced Materials as a segment, its value creation starts with strong volume growth. Prediction: When we look at the markets that we serve, automotive, I think odds are, I hope, good, that supply chain issues get resolved and automotive demand will be better next year than this year. The demand we have in the other end markets, like durables, medical, all those have continued strength that we see going forward, especially medical. So the end markets, we expect to be relatively strong.

我認為，對於積層製造來說，你需要從每年都會出現的過渡階段開始。因此，當你將先進材料視為一個細分市場時，其價值創造始於強勁的銷售成長。預測：就我們所服務的汽車市場而言，我認為供應鏈問題很有可能得到解決，並且明年的汽車需求將比今年更好。我們在其他終端市場，例如耐用品、醫療產品等的需求，我們預計這些市場未來都將持續強勁，尤其是在醫療領域。因此，我們預期終端市場將相對強勁。

Then we have the innovation that creates our own growth above these end markets. We've proven that extensively over the last decade. So even in a softer economy, we're still going to create growth over those end markets.

然後，我們擁有創新能力，能夠在這些終端市場之上創造自身的成長。過去十年，我們已經充分證明了這一點。因此，即使在經濟疲軟時期，我們仍將在這些終端市場創造成長。

And then you've got production catch-up, right? There's certain amount of production volume, because of the steam line event, we're not going to realize this year even though the demand is there for it. So that will be upside in volume next year. And there's the cost accounting issue really isn't a year-over-year tailwind because, well, it's a headwind the first quarter, it sort of comes back, if you will, to the rest of the year. So that's not something I would include in the bridge for '23.

然後你還要趕上產量，對吧？由於蒸汽管道事件的影響，今年產量可能會下降，儘管需求仍然旺盛，但今年我們無法實現這一目標。所以，明年產量會上升。此外，成本會計問題實際上並非同比順風，因為第一季是逆風，如果你願意的話，它會在今年剩餘時間裡有所回升。所以，我不會把這部分內容納入2023年的展望中。

But tremendous amount of volume, and then importantly, mix upgrade across all these volumes that we're talking about that have high growth or very high value relative to the segment average in AM, and certainly well above company average. So that creates a lot of mix leverage, as always.

但是，數量巨大，而且重要的是，所有這些數量都實現了組合升級，這些數量相對於AM行業的平均水平而言，具有高增長或非常高的價值，當然也遠高於公司平均水平。因此，一如既往，這創造了巨大的組合槓桿。

So you've got all those drivers that are going to sort of increase success. And then on top of all that, you've got to start the circular plant that gives you a whole another growth driver and value up on mix because the margins are attractive there. That's going to occur in 2023 relative to '22.

所以，你已經掌握了所有這些能夠提升成功的驅動力。除此之外，你還必須啟動循環工廠，這將為你帶來另一個成長動力，並提升產品組合的價值，因為那裡的利潤率很有吸引力。這將在2023年（相對於2022年）實現。

So that's how we create value every year, is control our cost structure, drive volume and mix. Spreads, my guess, are not a source of headwind or tailwind next year because we're getting our margins back to pre-pandemic levels this year. So it's a volume mix story, as it always has been, to deliver pretty attractive growth in '23 versus this year. This year is going to be a very attractive growth number relative to last year when you think about $650 million to $700 million. That's tremendous growth relative to '21.

所以，我們每年創造價值的方式就是控製成本結構，提升銷售量和產品組合。我猜，利差明年不會成為逆風或順風，因為我們今年的利潤率正在恢復到疫情前的水準。所以，一如既往，這是一個銷售組合的故事，2023年相比今年將實現相當可觀的成長。考慮到6.5億到7億美元的銷售額，今年的成長數字與去年相比將非常可觀。相對於2021年，這是一個巨大的成長。

And I guess it looked like corporate expense was 0 for 1Q. Part of that looked like insurance proceeds and stuff like that. Does any of that flow into 2Q? Or do we see a more normal rate of corporate cost in 2Q in the rest of the year?

我猜第一季的企業支出看起來是零。其中一部分看起來像是保險收益之類的。這些支出會流入第二季嗎？還是說，我們會看到第二季的企業成本率在今年剩餘時間內更正常？

Thanks for the question. For the rest of the year, we see roughly about an $85 million expense. Obviously, with the steam line incident, we stayed focused and, I'll call it, paced or level of investment in growth and projects.

謝謝你的提問。今年剩餘時間，我們的支出大約在8500萬美元左右。顯然，在蒸汽管道事件之後，我們保持了專注，我稱之為對成長和項目的投資節奏或水平。

Also, I'll remind you that we had the Adhesives business still part of Eastman, and it was -- the earnings were part of Other during Q1. So as we ramp up the circular, as we also look at the startup of the -- and completion of the first methanolysis facility, the cost incurred and related to those initiatives will be paced through the back half of the year.

另外，我要提醒大家，我們的黏合劑業務仍然是伊士曼的一部分，而且在第一季度，它的收益也屬於「其他」業務。因此，隨著我們逐步推進通告，以及我們關注首個甲醇分解設施的啟動和竣工，這些舉措所產生的成本以及相關成本將在下半年逐步顯現。

We'll take our next question from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas 提出的下一個問題。

So when you talk about the methanolysis project and producing packaging material, is what you're referring to disposable PET bottles? In other words, water bottles? And what you have is essentially a more circular route to making the PET bottles. Is that -- that's the essence of it?

所以，您說的甲醇分解項目和生產包裝材料是指一次性PET瓶嗎？換句話說，是指水瓶？您說的本質上是一種更循環的PET瓶生產方式。這就是它的精髓嗎？

Jeff, that's it. So it's not disposable water bottles, it's now circular water bottles, right? So we were in the business of making PET. Obviously, got out of it because it became incredibly competitive, if you want to go back to 2011.

傑夫，就是這樣。所以現在不是一次性水瓶，而是圓形水瓶了，對吧？我們之前做PET（聚對苯二甲酸乙二醇酯）的生意。顯然，我們退出了這個行業，因為競爭變得異常激烈，如果你想回溯到2011年的話。

And with the first plant, just to be clear, it's all specialties. The Kingsport plant we're building is feeding over specialties. But when we're talking about the plant in France or the second plant in the U.S., we are bringing back into our product portfolio making PET or polyester for textiles. Both of those end markets have a phenomenal waste problem, as we all know, in the bottles being thrown away. And frankly, right after packaging waste, textile waste is the second hugest -- second-largest problem going to landfill or incineration across the planet. Both of those issues need to be solved in significant ways.

要先明確的是，第一家工廠生產的都是特種產品。我們正在興建的金斯波特工廠主要生產特種產品。但說到法國工廠或美國第二家工廠，我們會將紡織品以PET或聚酯纖維重新納入我們的產品組合。眾所周知，這兩個終端市場都存在著嚴重的浪費問題，例如瓶子被丟棄。坦白說，紡織廢料是繼包裝廢料之後，全球第二大掩埋或焚燒問題。這兩個問題都需要有效解決。

That's why we're taking this act to sort of bring the circular economy in the linear economy and eliminate fossil-based feedstocks. But the model is going to be very different in how we get back into it, Jeff, versus where we were before. So it was market-based transactions, compete against China every day, in the traditional PET business.

這就是為什麼我們採取這項行動，將循環經濟帶入線性經濟，並消除化石原料。但傑夫，我們回歸循環經濟的方式將與之前的模式截然不同。之前我們是基於市場的交易，在傳統的PET產業，每天都要與中國競爭。

In this business, we're not building a plant unless we have long-term cost pass-through contracts that give us stable margins relative to wherever feedstock costs go, and not connecting it whatsoever to the sort of traditional PET market pricing. So we get much more predictable and reliable returns on these investments. So that's basically the heart of what we're trying to do in the model, is to make sure it's different than what we did in the past.

在這個行業，我們不會建廠，除非我們簽訂了長期成本轉嫁合同，該合同能讓我們獲得相對於原料成本波動的穩定利潤，並且與傳統的PET市場定價完全無關。這樣，我們就能獲得更可預測、更可靠的投資報酬率。這基本上就是我們在這個模型中努力的核心，確保它與過去的做法有所不同。

Okay. I get that. And so in terms of the non-packaging applications, what you're doing is you're making a more specialized PET that's more capital-intensive in the end rather than people who use, I don't know, recycled polypropylene. So what is it about the applications for your specialty PET that makes the customers want to buy a more expensive material? Is there some engineering characteristic that they've got so that they want to use specialty PET rather than less capital-intensive and cheaper polypropylene?

好的，我明白了。那麼，就非包裝應用而言，你們生產的是更專業的PET，最終比那些使用回收聚丙烯（我不知道）的人更耗資。那麼，你們的特種PET在應用上有什麼特點，讓顧客願意購買更昂貴的材料呢？是因為特種PET具有某些工程特性，讓他們更願意使用特種PET，而不是耗資更少、更便宜的聚丙烯？

Yes. Jeff, I just want to make sure we're keeping sort of different -- conversation clear. So when you're saying specialty, are you talking about our specialty copolyesters and our Tritan? Or are you talking about...

是的。傑夫，我只是想確保我們保持對話的清晰。所以，你說的特種是指我們的特殊共聚酯和Tritan嗎？還是…

Yes, that's what I'm talking about. Yes.

是的，我就是這個意思。是的。

Yes. So if you look at our sort of first plant that's going into Tritan and our other copolyesters, it's the same issue, right? So Innovation Day, we told you a great story about Black & Decker, right? It's a drill, but they want to be part of the circular economy, they want to address their Scope 3 emissions, the emissions that are occurring in their supply base, to improve their impact on climate. And they want to make a -- they want to be using something that is getting waste out of the environment, right?

是的。所以，如果你看看我們第一家生產Tritan和其他共聚酯的工廠，你會發現問題是一樣的，對吧？創新日那天，我們給你講了一個關於百得公司（Black & Decker）的精彩故事，對吧？這的確是一場演習，但他們希望成為循環經濟的一部分，他們希望解決範圍三排放，也就是他們供應基地發生的排放，以改善對氣候的影響。他們希望製造——他們希望使用一種能夠將廢物從環境中去除的東西，對吧？

It's part of how they're marketing their product. And they're getting a premium on their products, whether it's a Tritan water bottle for hydration that's a reusable bottle instead of using a PET bottle that you throw away, right? So reuse in the 3Rs. Or it's a drill. Or it's a phone case where they want to make it out of recycled content to, again, improve their impact on climate as well as the branding positioning they get about using recycled content.

這是他們行銷產品的一部分。他們的產品正在獲得溢價，無論是用於補水的Tritan水瓶，還是可重複使用的瓶子，而不是用一次性的PET瓶，對吧？所以這是3R原則中的再利用。或者是一個鑽頭。或者是手機殼，他們想用回收材料製成，再次改善他們對氣候的影響，並提升他們使用回收材料所獲得的品牌定位。

And all these brands are getting meaningful premiums, well above the price, way, way above the prices that we're charging for the polymer in their final products. So it's a value up for them. And so we get a better price for this recycled content, so there's better spread for us as we sell this versus our current products. And we're getting significant accelerated growth, not just in applications that we've been in, like water -- in those reusable water bottles, but also into new applications, like phone cases, where we weren't before. And there's other electronic applications, automotive applications. So it's opening up, accelerated market growth that we can tap into as well.

所有這些品牌都獲得了可觀的溢價，遠高於我們最終產品中聚合物的售價，遠高於我們。所以這對他們來說是一種價值提升。我們也因此獲得了更優惠的回收材料價格，因此與現有產品相比，我們銷售這些產品時，利潤空間更大。我們的業務成長顯著加速，不僅體現在我們現有的應用領域，例如可重複使用的水瓶，還拓展到我們之前從未涉足的新應用領域，例如手機殼。此外，還有其他電子應用，例如汽車應用。所以，這正在打開一個加速的市場成長空間，我們也可以利用它。

It's actually been tremendously exciting because it's the scope and strength of interest in this has well exceeded our expectations. So we're rushing as hard as we can to get this plant up and running.

這真的非常令人興奮，因為大家對此事的興趣範圍和強度遠遠超出了我們的預期。所以我們正在全力以赴，爭取讓工廠順利投入生產。

We'll take our next question from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們將回答富國銀行的麥克·西森提出的下一個問題。

In Advanced Materials, you -- in the first -- in the January quarter, you gave a $700 million EBITDA -- or EBIT outlook, and you added sort of a lower part of the range this quarter, $650 million. Is that largely related to the Kingsport shutdown? And if it is, what's the impact in maybe 2Q in that outlook?

在先進材料方面，您在一月份季度給出了7億美元的EBITDA（息稅折舊攤提前利潤）預期，而本季度您將預期下調至6.5億美元。這主要與金斯波特工廠的停工有關嗎？如果是，那麼該預期對第二季的業績會有什麼影響？

So Mike, this is Willie. What I would highlight is, yes, it is a key component of, I'll call it, adding a lower end of the range for $650 million to $700 million. As we've highlighted, the impact in Q1 related to the steam line incident for Advanced Materials is approximately $100 million. Also, we've highlighted that it will take us some time. We expect to get roughly half of the volume mix impact, which is for Advanced Materials, about $60 million. So as you think about pacing that into the back half of the year.

麥克，我是威利。我想強調的是，是的，這是一個關鍵組成部分，我稱之為增加6.5億至7億美元區間的下限。正如我們所強調的那樣，蒸汽管道事故對先進材料公司第一季的影響約為1億美元。此外，我們也強調過，這需要一些時間。我們預計大約一半的銷售組合影響，也就是對先進材料公司的影響，約為6000萬美元。所以，你可以考慮把這部分影響安排到下半年。

So as Mark has highlighted, we remain confident in this business. And ultimately, it will put us on a strong pace in the back half of the year as we recover the $100 million of spreads on a year-over-year basis and get our volume mix back to more normalized levels, which sets us up for more growth as we go into '23.

正如馬克所強調的，我們對這項業務仍然充滿信心。最終，這將使我們在下半年保持強勁增長，因為我們將同比收回1億美元的利差，並使我們的交易量結構恢復到更正常的水平，這將為我們在邁向2023年時實現更大的增長奠定基礎。

Yes. Just to add one thing to that. There are really sort of 3 parts of this as we think about it versus where we were in the beginning of the year, where we said we were going to be greater than $700 million. We obviously had the impact of the steam line incident that Willie just described. We also have expectations in the automotive market being a little bit weaker. And then we have the China COVID kind of underlying risk here that we're realizing in the moment.

是的。補充一點。與年初我們承諾的超過7億美元的業績相比，我們實際上經歷了三個方面的變化。首先，我們顯然受到了Willie剛才提到的蒸汽管道事件的影響。其次，我們對汽車市場的預期也略有減弱。最後，我們目前意識到了中國新冠疫情帶來的潛在風險。

But the spreads are actually -- the spread improvement relative to last year is very much on track relative to where we were in January. So that has held up, and we believe, consistent with where we were in January.

但實際上，與去年相比，利差的改善與1月的水平相比非常接近。因此，我們認為，利差保持了穩定，並且與1月份的水平保持一致。

So we went from greater than $700 million to this sort of adjusted range now to reflect these headwinds.

因此，我們將金額從 7 億多美元調整到現在的這種調整範圍，以反映這些不利因素。

Got it. And then just a quick follow-up in Chemical Intermediates. I think you've had 5 quarters now above $100 million in just the EBIT. I mean, in the event that oil stays high, demand stays good. And when I talk to some of the commodity folks, I don't think a lot of them are seeing sort of this normalization in the second half of the year. But if all that sort of plays out, would you stay above $100 million? Because I think if I model out the segment, you would be below in the second half.

明白了。然後快速跟進化學中間體業務。我認為你們的息稅前利潤（EBIT）已經有五個季度超過1億美元了。我的意思是，如果油價保持在高位，需求也會保持良好。當我和一些大宗商品行業的人士交流時，我認為他們中的許多人在下半年不會看到這種正常化。但如果這一切都順利進行，你們的EBIT還能維持在1億美元以上嗎？因為我認為，如果我對這個部門進行建模，你們下半年的EBIT會低於這個數字。

Yes. So when you think about CI, you have to keep in mind, there are sort of 3 factors that cause the second half to be lower than the first half, right?

是的。所以當你考慮CI的時候，你必須記住，大概有3個因素導致後半部分低於前半部分，對吧？

So one, we have just normal seasonal volume trend off and functional means in the ag market. So there's some of that, that occurs every year and certainly will happen this year, we believe.

首先，農業市場呈現正常的季節性交易量趨勢和功能性特徵。這種情況每年都會發生，我們相信今年也一定會發生。

Second is just shutdown schedules. So last year, shutdown schedule was sort of loaded to the front half. This year, the shutdown schedule is loaded into the back half with a big cracker turnaround in the fourth quarter. So there's just that sort of shift in maintenance expense that's going to occur.

第二個是停產計劃。去年，停產計畫安排在上半年。今年，停產計畫安排在下半年，因為第四季裂解廠產能將大幅恢復。因此，維護費用將會發生類似的變化。

So those 2 will moderate the second half to be lower than the first half even if the spreads stayed the same in the back half of the year to the front half.

因此，即使下半年與上半年的利差保持不變，上述兩個因素也將使下半年的利差低於上半年。

So then you get into this question about sort of markets softening and going back towards normal versus where the margins are today. If you go do the math, you can see there are some headwinds already in the cracking spreads that creates a bit of a headwind that you can start seeing here in the second quarter. So some of this is likely to happen. But again, we don't sell ethylene and propylene nor do we sell derivatives, and those markets continue to be really tight. So we're not going to see much of an impact on the sort of cracker spreads in the second quarter from what we can see. But we expect this will eventually start finding its way into the market as we get into the second half and some amount of normalization is going to occur.

那麼，接下來的問題就是市場是否會走弱，回歸正常水平，而不是目前的利潤水平。如果你算一下，你會發現裂解價差已經存在一些阻力，這些阻力在第二季會開始顯現。所以這種情況可能會發生。不過，我們既不銷售乙烯和丙烯，也不銷售衍生性商品，這些市場的供應仍然非常緊張。所以，就我們目前的情況來看，第二季裂解價差不會受到太大影響。但我們預計，隨著進入下半年，這種阻力最終會開始作用於市場，市場將逐漸恢復正常。

But we've all been guessing at when and how much it's going to occur. And as I said earlier, I think we've taken a reasonable or conservative approach to say we're going to normalize. And if we turn out to be wrong about that and it stays stronger into the second half, that will be upside.

但我們一直在猜測何時以及程度如何。正如我之前所說，我認為我們採取了一種合理或保守的方法來預測經濟將恢復正常。如果我們的預測被證明是錯誤的，並且經濟在下半年保持強勁，那將是有利的。

We'll take our next question from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們將回答 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander 提出的下一個問題。

This is Maria Milina for Laurence Alexander. I have a question on the impact of China lockdown and COVID that you mentioned a couple of minutes ago. Do you expect to recapture the earnings after these lockdowns? Or how do you see it playing out?

我是勞倫斯·亞歷山大的瑪麗亞·米利娜。我有一個關於您幾分鐘前提到的中國封鎖和新冠疫情影響的問題。您預計封鎖結束後收益會恢復嗎？或者您認為接下來會如何發展？

That's a good question. So I would say China lockdowns is probably the biggest uncertainty that we can think of at this stage, especially in the second quarter. We've assumed that the lockdowns are continuing through this month and will start to get resolved in May. So who knows what's going to happen? But just that's sort of what we've assumed into our forecast.

這個問題問得好。所以我認為，中國的封鎖可能是我們目前能想到的最大不確定性，尤其是在第二季。我們假設封鎖將持續到本月，並將在5月開始解除。所以誰知道會發生什麼事？但這只是我們在預測中所假設的。

It's impacting us in a couple of ways. One, our ability to impact -- import products into China, which is important for all of our segments, including Advanced Materials, where a lot of products are made from our Tritan and then shipped around the world. And then you've got the impact on just demand in the country, where you've got people buying cars and appliances and everything else and the impact that it has on our business from a direct demand point of view.

這對我們有幾個方面的影響。首先，是我們向中國進口產品的能力，這對我們所有業務部門都很重要，包括先進材料部門，那裡的許多產品都是用我們的Tritan材料製成的，然後運往世界各地。其次，這會影響中國的需求，因為人們購買汽車、家電和其他所有東西，從直接需求的角度來看，這對我們的業務也產生了影響。

So we're keeping an eye on all those factors. Automotive seems to be the market most impacted at this stage, especially for performance films business at the point of sale for those films in paint protection and window films.

所以我們正在密切關注所有這些因素。汽車市場似乎是現階段受影響最大的市場，尤其是對於銷售點的高性能薄膜業務，例如用於漆面保護和車窗的薄膜。

But I think that overall, what we think is, it is still underlying pent-up demand, especially on the export business that is still strong in Europe and the U.S. So we do expect that there could be a rebound in demand when we get past how they're managing COVID. But it's anyone's guess on how managing COVID in China is going to go and sort of the pace and breadth of that impact.

但我認為，總體而言，我們認為這仍然是潛在的被壓抑的需求，尤其是在歐洲和美國仍然強勁的出口業務方面。因此，我們確實預計，當我們擺脫新冠疫情的防控措施後，需求可能會反彈。但對於中國新冠疫情的防治進展以及其影響的速度和廣度，誰也說不準。

And we'll take our next question from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將回答 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan 提出的下一個問題。

I guess I wanted to revisit the outlook for '23 you kind of laid out earlier. So if you think about your own inflation potentially peaking in Q2. And then you look into the rest of the year, you laid out the 5% increase. When you look into next year, I guess, you will see potentially a moderating feedstock environment, as you just noted. But do you still expect kind of 8% to 12% EPS growth in that? And if so, maybe what will be some of the drivers that would get you there? Would you see it like a still a $0.45 buyback opportunity? Or how should we think about that as well?

我想重新回顧一下您之前提出的2023年前景。您認為通膨可能會在第二季達到高峰。然後展望今年剩餘時間，您提出了5%的增幅。展望明年，我想您會看到原料市場環境可能會有所緩和，正如您剛才提到的。但您仍預期每股盈餘會有8%到12%的成長嗎？如果是這樣，有哪些驅動因素會推動您實現這一目標？您認為這仍然是一個每股0.45美元的回購機會嗎？或者我們應該如何看待這個問題？

Yes. So 2023 bridge, I have to admit, that's a first for me in a first quarter call. But look, when we look at it for '23, as I said earlier, strong demand growth in AFP and AM will deliver earnings growth next year relative to this year. And we'll have a tailwind because of the sort of capacity production disruptions we had this year that enable that volume recovery also to be a tailwind for next year.

是的。所以，我得承認，我在第一季電話會議上第一次預測2023年的業績。但展望2023年，正如我之前所說，AFP和AM的強勁需求成長將帶來明年獲利相對於今年的成長。而且，由於今年的產能生產中斷，我們將獲得順風，這使得產量恢復也成為明年的順風。

It's a little hard to predict where spreads are going to be next year in the specialties. But if inflation -- if raw materials come off, that will create a tailwind relative to pricing for next year relative to this year, I think that's correct. Then you've got normalization of CI. So how those 2 net out at the corporate level could be, to some degree, neutralized as a tailwind relative to this year. So really a volume mix story as the key drivers.

很難預測明年特用化學品的價差會是多少。但如果通貨膨脹——如果原材料價格下跌——這將對明年的價格形成順風，我認為是這樣。這樣一來，CI 就正常化了。因此，這兩個指標在公司層級的淨值，在某種程度上可能會抵銷今年的順風效應。所以，真正的關鍵驅動因素其實是產量組合。

As always, we'll manage our cost structure to make sure there's not a headwind there outside of some gross spend. And so we're set up, I think, for improving EBITDA in a meaningful way. Obviously, we have a very strong cash flow, and that will continue to be both reinvested in organic investments that we're doing for specialty as well as our circular plants. And as we said at Innovation Day, there will still be money left over for share repurchases on top of that as we go through next year to create that EPS growth on top of the EBITDA growth relative to this year.

像往常一樣，我們將管理成本結構，確保除了總支出之外，不會出現任何不利因素。因此，我認為我們已經做好了充分準備，能夠顯著提高EBITDA。顯然，我們擁有非常強勁的現金流，這筆資金將繼續用於我們對特種化學品工廠和循環工廠的有機投資。正如我們在創新日所說的那樣，我們明年仍將剩餘資金用於股票回購，力爭在EBITDA成長的基礎上，實現每股盈餘（EPS）相對於今年的成長。

So we feel good about the 8% to 12%, but it's a little early to start calling numbers.

因此，我們對 8% 到 12% 的成長率感到滿意，但是現在開始預測數字還為時過早。

Okay. Fair enough. And then, I guess, I just wanted to ask as a follow-up, back to the strategy on methanolysis. It sounds like, initially, the plan is to roll out more of the specialty applications, but over time potentially progress towards replacing some of the, as you said, circular water bottles. Is that really the strategy that Eastman wants to pursue? Maybe longer term, do you see this company as kind of 50% specialties and then maybe 50% replacing some of these more commoditized applications? Or how do you think about strategy? And the strategy you guys have been following for many years of trying to go more downstream and more specialty and squaring that with the needs to replace some of these commoditized items with circular solutions.

好的，說得對。然後，我想問關於甲醇分解策略的後續問題。聽起來，最初的計劃是推出更多特種應用，但隨著時間的推移，可能會逐步取代一些您所說的循環水瓶。這真的是伊士曼想要推行的策略嗎？從長遠來看，您是否認為公司會將50%的特殊產品用於生產，然後50%的產品用於替代一些更商品化的應用？或您如何看待戰略？多年來，你們一直遵循的策略是嘗試向下游和特種產品領域發展，並將其與以循環解決方案取代部分商品化產品的需求相結合。

Yes. So from a total company point of view, obviously, our strategy is very much focused on specialties and AM, AFP as well as textiles, with our very differentiated biopolymers and new applications that we're creating for the biopolymers like microbeads and food service packaging, et cetera. So when we think about specialty, let's just be clear what specialty means to us.

是的。從整個公司的角度來看，我們的策略顯然非常專注於特種材料、積層製造 (AM)、AFP 以及紡織品，包括我們極具差異化的生物聚合物以及我們正在為生物聚合物開發的新應用，例如微珠和食品服務包裝等等。所以，當我們思考「特種」時，首先要明確「特種」對我們意味著什麼。

It's attractive, high, stable margins over time, where we have good pricing power because of the value our products create in the marketplace. To manage our pricing relative to our sort of raw material and energy costs. And creating value for shareholders, not by expanding spread over time, because the spreads are already very attractive to start off with, but by growing volume quickly. And because that is high margins, that translates into a significant mix upgrade at the corporate level.

長期來看，利潤率高且穩定，這得益於我們產品在市場上創造的價值，我們擁有良好的定價能力。我們根據原材料和能源成本來管理定價。為股東創造價值，並非逐步擴大利差（因為利差一開始就非常有吸引力），而是透過快速增加產量。由於利潤率高，這意味著公司層級的資產組合將顯著升級。

And whether that's -- especially copolyesters or Tritan or coating additives or personal care additives or circular PET or circular textiles at very attractive margins that are very stable in cost pass-through contracts, that's all in our category of specialty, where we're bringing very attractive high-margin growth, right?

無論是共聚酯、Tritan、塗料添加劑、個人護理添加劑、循環PET還是循環紡織品，它們的利潤率都非常有吸引力，而且在成本轉嫁合約中非常穩定，這些都屬於我們的專業類別，我們能帶來非常有吸引力的高利潤增長，對吧？

And you think of the circular platform, we've told you we're going to deploy $2 billion of capital across these first 3 plants, the first one being focused on specialty; France being a hybrid of specialty and PET and textiles; and the third being predominantly packaging and textiles with, I'll call it, specialty circular polymers.

說到循環平台，我們已經告訴過你，我們將在前 3 家工廠投入 20 億美元資金，第一家工廠專注於特種產品；法國工廠是特種產品、PET 和紡織品的混合體；第三家工廠主要生產包裝和紡織品，我稱之為特種循環聚合物。

But that $2 billion translates into $450 million of EBITDA. So when you look at the ROIC and the value creation from those 3 projects, I call it special.

但這20億美元相當於4.5億美元的EBITDA。所以，當你看這三個項目的ROIC和價值創造時，我認為它很特別。

Let's make the next question the last one, please.

請將下一個問題作為最後一個問題。

Okay. Our final question is from Jaideep Pandya with On Field Research.

好的。我們的最後一個問題來自 On Field Research 的 Jaideep Pandya。

Your first question is really around the circular plastic product you have, to your point. And if you take France as an example, you want to invest $1 billion for 160 kt plant. So if I just go by the returns numbers that you sort of said, I mean, sort of back of the envelope, it feels like there will be -- all else equal, you would need almost 3x the price of recycled polymer versus a virgin polymer. So if that is not the case, then what is the inherent cost advantages in the cost structure which make returns attractive and prices not ridiculously different from virgin polymer? That's my first question.

您的第一個問題實際上是關於您所提到的循環塑膠產品。以法國為例，您想投資10億美元建造一個16萬噸的工廠。如果我根據您所說的報酬數字，也就是粗略估算一下，感覺在其他條件相同的情況下，再生聚合物的價格幾乎是原生聚合物的三倍。如果不是這樣，那麼成本結構中固有的成本優勢是什麼，使得回報具有吸引力，價格與原生聚合物的價格相差不大？這是我的第一個問題。

And the second question is just around cash flow. Sorry to ask this, but I suppose, is it really just the raw material inflation, why you have changed your wording on the cash flow? Or is there something else to it as well?

第二個問題是關於現金流的。抱歉，我想問一下，您修改現金流表達的原因真的只是原物料價格上漲嗎？還是還有其他原因？

Yes. Let me start with the cash flow question first. So yes, obviously, we're -- we've seen a pretty significant inflation here in the first quarter. As Mark highlighted, we expect that to peak in the second quarter. So as we think about that, that's at least $100 million of headwind that we see. And what we're highlighting is a change in guidance.

是的。我先從現金流問題說起。是的，顯然，我們在第一季看到了相當嚴重的通貨膨脹。正如馬克所強調的那樣，我們預計通貨膨脹將在第二季達到高峰。考慮到這一點，我們至少看到了1億美元的逆風。而我們重點關注的是業績指引的變化。

I would say our first quarter cash flow was probably pretty normal compared to pre-COVID. If you look back at the '17 to '19 time frame, our Q1 is pretty representative. We had a couple of headwinds this year in Q1, which one is a higher than normal, I'll call it, variable compensation payout, as well as the impact of the steam line incident and the divested EBITDA year-over-year combining for about $100 million. So as we go into the back half of the year, it will be more traditional.

我想說，與新冠疫情之前相比，我們第一季的現金流可能相當正常。如果回顧2017年至2019年這段時間，我們的第一季表現相當具有代表性。今年第一季我們遇到了一些不利因素，其中之一就是高於正常水平的（我稱之為）浮動薪酬支出，以及蒸汽管道事故的影響，以及剝離的EBITDA同比增幅約為1億美元。因此，進入下半年，情況將更加傳統。

And we'll use all the levers. We've made investments in integrated business planning to effectively and efficiently manage our inventories. As well as, again, we look at our net 90 programs and terms and accounts payable as well as other avenues on the accounts receivable side.

我們將運用所有槓桿。我們已經在綜合業務規劃方面進行了投資，以有效、有效率地管理庫存。此外，我們也會檢視我們的淨90計畫、條款、應付帳款以及應收帳款方面的其他管道。

So again, we've been able to demonstrate and deliver cash flow in multiple environments over the last several years and remain confident in robust cash flow this year.

因此，過去幾年我們已經能夠在多種環境中展示和提供現金流，並且對今年強勁的現金流仍然充滿信心。

So the first question, I'm not quite sure how you did the math, but it's wrong. So when you look at this plant in France, First of all, we've said that the first phase of the plant is going to be $600 million to $800 million, not $1 billion. The second phase, where we're adding more specialty capability down the road, is what gets you to the $1 billion. So capital number is a bit lower than what you assumed.

所以第一個問題，我不太清楚你是怎麼算的，但你的計算方式不對。例如你看看法國的這家工廠，首先，我們說過工廠第一期工程的投資金額是6億到8億美元，而不是10億美元。二期工程，也就是我們未來會增加更多專業能力的階段，才能達到10億美元。所以實際的資本額比你預想的要低一些。

Second, when we look at the pricing, you got to remember that the value that we're capturing is the price in the marketplace relative to the cost of our feedstock, right? It's a 2-step investment, right? We're building methanolysis and we're building PET and selling PET revenue, right? That $600 million to $800 million is to build the methanolysis and the PET plant. So the margins you're generating are a lot more substantial when you're going all the way to the cost of plastic waste, which is quite low relative to the price you get in the markets.

其次，當我們考慮定價時，你必須記住，我們獲得的價值是市場價格相對於我們原料成本的比率，對吧？這是一項兩步驟投資，對吧？我們正在建造甲醇分解裝置，我們正在生產PET，並出售PET以獲得收入，對吧？這6億到8億美元是用來建造甲醇分解裝置和PET工廠的。因此，當你考慮到塑膠廢料的成本時，你產生的利潤會更加可觀，因為塑膠廢料的成本相對於市場價格來說相當低。

So when you do that math and say, "Okay, what premium do I have to get above the sort of fossil-based feedstock market?" It's not all that different than the premiums that exist in the market today for mechanical-grade feedstock.

所以當你計算之後說：「好吧，我需要多少溢價才能超越化石原料市場？」這與目前機械級原料市場上的溢價並沒有什麼不同。

And remember, our material is much higher quality, in it's clarity, it's performance reliability and safety, than mechanical-grade feedstocks. So it is a high-value product and it is a long-term solution because we can infinitely recycle plastic waste, we don't degrade sort of after 5 laps like mechanical does.

請記住，我們的材料在透明度、性能可靠性和安全性方面都比機械級原料高得多。因此，它是一種高價值產品，也是長期解決方案，因為我們可以無限次回收塑膠垃圾，而且不像機械級原料那樣，經過5圈後就會降解。

By the way, that makes us also a necessary complement to mechanical to keep it a viable stream in the long term because we can revitalize what is degrading through our technology. So a lot of value we bring to the marketplace, not just in what we provide, but enabling mechanical recycling to exist in the future, which it will not do without molecular recycling.

順便說一句，這也使我們成為機械回收的必要補充，使其能夠長期保持活力，因為我們可以透過科技使正在降解的物質恢復活力。因此，我們為市場帶來了巨大的價值，不僅在於我們提供的產品，還在於使機械回收在未來得以存在，而如果沒有分子回收，機械回收就無法實現。

So there's a lot of value we can get, but we're taking a pretty reasonable pricing approach relative to the market and generating the sort of $450 million EBITDA to $2 billion of capital. So good returns.

所以，我們可以獲得很大的價值，而且我們採取了相對於市場而言相當合理的定價策略，實現了 4.5 億美元的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA)，相當於 20 億美元的資本。所以回報不錯。

All right. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Very much appreciate that. And I hope you have a great day. This concludes our call.

好的。感謝大家今天加入我們。非常感謝。祝大家今天愉快。我們的通話到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開連線了。