伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Eastman Chemical Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com. We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化工2022年第四季及全年電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議將在伊士曼網站www.eastman.com上進行現場直播。現在，我們將把電話交給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部門的Greg Riddle先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, Emily, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, senior Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝艾米莉，大家早安，謝謝你們的參與。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、高級副總裁兼首席財務官威利·麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain) 以及投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Yesterday after market closed, we posted our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing. Our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website, eastman.com.

昨日收盤後，我們發布了2022年第四季及全年財務業績新聞稿以及SEC 8-K文件。幻燈片及相關準備發言稿已發佈於我們網站eastman.com的「投資者」板塊。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results news release during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks, and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-Q filed for third quarter 2022 and the Form 10-K to be filed for full year of 2022.

在開始之前，我將介紹兩點。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到一些關於我們計劃和預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在本次電話會議期間發布的2022年第四季度和全年財務業績新聞稿、之前的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的2022年第三季度10-Q表和即將提交的2022年全年10-K表。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results news release. As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we'll go straight into Q&A. Emily, please let's start with our first question.

其次，本簡報中提及的收益不包括某些非核心和非經常性項目。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳及其他相關揭露（包括排除和調整後項目的描述）可在 2022 年第四季和全年財務業績新聞稿中查閱。由於我們昨晚已在網站上發布了幻燈片和隨附的準備好的講稿，我們將直接進入問答環節。艾米麗，請讓我們從第一個問題開始。

(Operator Instructions) We will now go to our first question from Josh Spector of UBS.

（操作員指示）現在我們來回答瑞銀的 Josh Spector 提出的第一個問題。

I guess first one to ask, can you walk through your step-up in your implied guidance from first quarter through the rest of the year? I guess mostly interested to hear how much you see this within your control versus subject to macro conditions changing?

我想首先想問的是，您能否具體說明一下從第一季到今年剩餘時間，您的隱含業績指引將如何提升？我最感興趣的是，您認為這在多大程度上是在您的控制範圍內，還是會受到宏觀環境變化的影響？

Sure, Josh, and welcome. The -- we expected that question. I think it's an extremely important one, which we spent a lot of time on. First, let's just recognize we're in an extremely dynamic time in this world where it is difficult to predict some of the macro. You've got China in a weak situation but likely to recover, in one article saying there's $2.2 trillion of cash out there with Chinese consumers to be deployed and how that impacts both demand and energy. And Ukrainian war, you've got inflation at 4-year highs and what the Fed is going to do with it. So there is a lot of uncertainty and the fourth quarter was a little bit challenging.

當然，喬希，歡迎。這個問題我們預料到了。我認為這個問題非常重要，我們為此花了很多時間。首先，我們要認識到，我們正處於一個極度動盪的時代，一些宏觀因素很難預測。中國經濟情勢疲軟，但可能復甦。一篇文章指出，中國消費者擁有2.2兆美元的現金可供使用，並探討了這將如何影響需求和能源。此外，還有烏克蘭戰爭，通膨率達到四年來的最高水平，以及聯準會將如何應對。因此，存在著許多不確定性，第四季的情況有些挑戰性。

As we look at Q1, many of those challenges continue, whether it's the destocking in durables and B&C that still needs to work itself out, although not yet recovering. And the stable market is virtually getting pass destocking, but not growing yet. We will certainly see some raw material benefits in the first quarter, but not much in the way flow-through works and seasonally energy is high. So the first quarter has a number of challenges, not to mention pension and variable comp.

展望第一季度，許多挑戰仍在繼續，無論是耐用品還是工商業的去庫存化，儘管目前尚未復甦，但仍需自行解決。穩定的市場實際上正在經歷去庫存化，但尚未實現成長。我們肯定會在第一季看到一些原料方面的利好，但流通環節的利好並不大，而且季節性能源價格也處於高位。因此，第一季面臨諸多挑戰，更不用說退休金和浮動薪資了。

So as we look at the step up into the second quarter and through the rest of the year, there's really 3 key elements. To your point, the one that's most directly in our control is taking out $200 million of cost net of inflation. And not much of that is really helping us in the first quarter. There are some of the unmet manufacturing activities that we're executing on, but even that is being implemented through this quarter and the operational improvements flowing the inventory, and those benefits won't flow out until they start moving into the second quarter. So the vast majority of that $200 million gets spread across the 3 quarters. So that's a big step up Q1 to Q2.

因此，當我們展望第二季度以及今年剩餘時間的成長時，我們主要關註三個關鍵因素。正如您所說，我們最直接可控的因素是扣除通膨因素後，扣除2億美元的成本。但這筆成本在第一季並沒有為我們帶來太多實際幫助。我們正在執行一些尚未滿足的製造活動，但即使是這些活動也在本季得以實施，營運改善也正在推動庫存的流動，這些收益要到第二季才能顯現出來。因此，這2億美元的絕大部分將分攤到三個季度。因此，從第一季到第二季度，這是一個巨大的進步。

The second one is how will spreads improve. Now we've had tremendous success in being disciplined and successful in managing our pricing with just great commercial excellence across all parts of the company. It's pretty extraordinary when you think about the amount of inflation that we faced. Last year it was about $1.3 billion of inflation, where at the beginning of the year we didn't really expect that much inflation if we go back to our January call of last year. And if you look at it on a 2-year basis, it's $2.4 billion of inflation, if you even go back to 2019 to '22 $2.0 billion of inflation. So a significant amount of inflation, and we've caught up with most of that and across that multiyear time frame. We certainly kept up with it through last year.

第二個問題是利差將如何改善。目前，我們在嚴格控制定價方面取得了巨大成功，公司各部門都表現出色，商業運作也十分出色。想想我們面臨的通膨水平，這真是非同尋常。去年通膨約13億美元，如果追溯到去年1月份的會議紀錄，年初我們並沒有預料到會有這麼高的通膨。如果以兩年為週期來看，通膨高達24億美元；如果追溯到2019年至2022年，通膨總額為20億美元。因此，通膨水平相當高，我們已經在多年的時間跨度內控制了大部分通膨。去年我們確實一直保持著這種勢頭。

So as you go to each segment, the story is a little bit different. So Advanced Materials is probably the most important one to start with because it has a pretty significant tail when in spread. When you think about they had one of the most challenging raw material and energy environments across our segments with them and PVOH up 45% relative to '21 PX, up 40%, energy up 70%. Now they kept up with that inflation with 13% increases in price, but they didn't improve spreads. And if you go back to where we were at the beginning of last year, we had the intention of recovering spread compression in '21 of about $100 million. Now we didn't get that, but we did keep up with inflation.

所以，當你深入每個細分市場時，情況會略有不同。因此，先進材料可能是最重要的一個細分市場，因為它的價差尾部相當明顯。想想看，他們面臨著我們所有細分市場中最具挑戰性的原材料和能源環境之一，PVOH 價格相對於 2021 年上漲了 45%，PX 價格上漲了 40%，能源價格上漲了 70%。現在，他們跟上了通貨膨脹的步伐，價格上漲了 13%，但並沒有改善價差。如果你回顧去年年初的情況，我們原本計劃在 2021 年彌補約 1 億美元的價差壓縮。現在我們沒能實現這個目標，但我們確實跟上了通貨膨脹的步伐。

And we're starting now into this year at a much higher altitude with the prices that we've achieved in keeping up with this inflation. So as we look at this year, we see that this segment is going to have a pretty substantial tailwind in raw material and energy. And we're not trying to be too optimistic about this. If we just use the -- where raw materials have already come down in PVOH and PX for the first quarter of this year. And think about the energy off of the natural gas forward curve for the year, that's actually quite a bit more spread tailwind than what we would have thought last year of that $100 million because of the higher altitude. So that's part of it.

今年伊始，我們處於更高的海拔高度，而為了跟上通膨的壓力，我們實現了價格上漲。因此，展望今年，我們發現該領域在原料和能源方面將迎來相當大的順風。我們對此並不抱太過樂觀的態度。如果我們只以今年第一季PVOH和PX原料價格已經下降的數據為例，再想想今年天然氣遠期曲線的能量，由於海拔較高，這實際上比我們去年預計的1億美元順風要大得多。所以，這是部分原因。

And again, that shows up as a step up as you move into the second quarter. There's a bit of it that flows through the first quarter, but most of that is in the second quarter through the fourth. With Fibers, much shorter cleaner story, which is you had a lot of challenges and inflation here as well, both especially in energy. And the market, the customers have moved to being worried about security and supply. So we've been very successful in increasing prices last year as well as contractually securing much higher prices this year to make sure that margins are back to sustainable levels to support our customers. And that's $275 million outlook to earnings this year, which is a significant step-up in fact, enough to offset the spread normalization in chemical intermediates that we expect this year.

再次，進入第二季度後，這種成長勢頭再次顯現。第一季有一部分成長，但大部分集中在第二季到第四季。纖維業務方面，清潔能源業務的故事要短得多，也就是說，我們面臨許多挑戰和通貨膨脹，尤其是在能源領域。市場方面，客戶開始擔心安全和供應。因此，我們去年非常成功地提高了價格，並透過合約確保了今年更高的價格，以確保利潤率回到可持續的水平，從而支持我們的客戶。這意味著今年的獲利預期為2.75億美元，這實際上是一個顯著的成長，足以抵消我們預期今年化學中間體利差正常化的影響。

And then AFP will have modest spread improvement as well, but not as much because they managed spread quite well last year, so they have less upside this year. So you put it all together, that's a lot of spread improvement and a lot of it flows in sequentially into the second quarter. So that's a big step up. The third segment is volume and mix, and this is more of a mix of what happens with the economy versus what's in our control. Destocking at some point is going to end. We're assuming right now that it predominantly ends by the end of this quarter for durables and B&C. And so you get a step up of demand going from destocking levels, which are pretty severe to something less than that.

然後，AFP 的利差也會小幅改善，但幅度不會太大，因為他們去年對利差的控制非常好，所以今年的上行空間較小。所以，把所有這些結合起來，利差改善幅度很大，而且許多改善會陸續延續到第二季​​。所以，這是一個很大的進步。第三部分是產量和產品組合，這更多的是經濟狀況和我們能控制的因素的綜合作用。去庫存化終將結束。我們現在假設，到本季末，耐用品和 B&C 產品的去庫存化將基本結束。因此，需求會從去庫存化水準（相當嚴重）上升到較輕的水準。

In the stable markets, we cannot see it moving pass that some amount of growth from those markets. Importantly, innovation is something in our control, and we've had a lot of success last year despite of challenges in the economy and securing a lot of new business wins that are going to help this year. And again, that doesn't really happen during destocking. So you got to wait to get that past you to start seeing some of that benefit. And then, of course, there's China recovery. But we're being very conservative and not assuming much of that in our -- sort of outlook that we've provided until we see more proof of it.

在穩定的市場中，我們預期這些市場的成長幅度不會超過這個水準。重要的是，創新是我們能夠掌控的。儘管經濟面臨挑戰，但去年我們仍然取得了巨大的成功，並獲得了許多新業務，這將對今年的業績有所幫助。需要再次強調的是，在去庫存期間，這種情況並不常見。所以，你必須等到去庫存結束後才能開始看到一些收益。當然，還有中國經濟的復甦。但我們非常保守，在看到更多證據之前，我們不會在我們先前提供的展望中對此做太多假設。

So the bottom line is, there's a lot of step-up across these 3 factors. Many of it is in our control. But as you look at the guidance we gave you for the year, given the outlook for the first quarter, I think it's appropriate to sort of look at the lower half of that guidance or how we're going to perform until we get past this quarter and have more insight on all these factors.

所以，歸根究底，這三個因素的提升空間很大。其中很多都在我們的掌控之中。但當你回顧我們給出的年度業績指引時，考慮到第一季度的前景，我認為應該先看看指引的下半部分，或者看看我們在本季度結束前的表現，以便對所有這些因素有更深入的了解。

Our next question today comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們今天的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, just on Fibers, can you talk to the sustainability of this higher level of earnings going forward?

馬克，僅就 Fibers 而言，您能談談未來這種更高盈利水平的可持續性嗎？

David, thank you for the question. It's one of the bright spots of the year and one we're excited to talk about. Fibers has obviously been on a tough journey since 2014 when the market has structure loosened up for a variety of factors. But the situation has evolved and changed over time. First is on the demand side. We historically thought about demand declining in the 2% to 3% range. But what we've seen over the last few years is it's only declining around 1%. And partly, that's driven by the strength of the heat-not-burn segment of the marketplace that is growing at 15% a year, offsetting some of the other decline on the cigarette side. China has also stabilized to being pretty much flat to slightly up in demand over the last several years.

David，謝謝你的提問。這是今年的亮點之一，我們很榮幸能與大家分享。自2014年以來，由於各種因素，市場結構有所放鬆，纖維市場顯然經歷了一段艱難的歷程。但隨著時間的推移，情況也不斷發展變化。首先是需求方面。我們過去認為需求下降幅度在2%到3%之間。但過去幾年我們看到的需求僅下降了1%左右。部分原因是加熱不燃燒電子煙市場表現強勁，每年以15%的速度成長，抵銷了香菸市場其他部分的需求下降。過去幾年，中國市場的需求也趨於穩定，基本上持平或略有上升。

So you've got stabilization of demand, the heat-not-burn market growing, and the heat-not-burn devices require quite a bit more tow per smoking experience than a cigarette. So that's also helping. If you look at in the last decade, we've only been down about 10% of demand as you sort of put all these factors together. And we uniquely at Eastman also have the benefit of the textile growth, providing stability and margins to our business.

所以，需求穩定，加熱不燃燒市場不斷增長，而且加熱不燃燒設備每次吸煙所需的煙霧量比香煙大得多。所以，這也起了幫助作用。回顧過去十年，綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們的需求僅下降了約10%。伊士曼也受益於紡織業務的成長，這為我們的業務帶來了穩定性和利潤。

On the supply side, there's also a lot that's changed in the last decade. So you can see about 15% of capacity has been shut down or repurposed. That assets that have been retired, the impacts that Russia has had on capacity in their country as well as us repurposing some of our assets towards the textiles growth. And the move to like the slim cigarettes, especially in China, as well as (inaudible) cigarettes has actually had a significant impact on the effective capacity. It's much more difficult to make those products, so you lose a lot of capacity, at least 10%, maybe 15% of capacity is lost with that. So the industry has gone when you put those factors together to being pretty high in capacity utilization, where the conversations and then the focus with our customers is how we are reliable, secure supplier for their needs. You have to remember the value of tow and the final price of the cigarette is a very small percent.

在供應方面，過去十年也發生了許多變化。你可以看到大約15%的產能被關閉或再利用。這些資產的退役，俄羅斯對其國家產能的影響，以及我們將部分資產重新用於紡織業成長。轉向細支香菸（尤其是在中國）以及（聽不清楚）捲菸等產品，實際上對有效產能產生了重大影響。生產這些產品的難度要大得多，因此會損失大量產能，至少10%，甚至15%的產能會因此損失。所以，綜合考慮這些因素，整個產業的產能利用率已經相當高，我們與客戶的溝通以及關注的重點是如何成為可靠、安全的供應商，滿足他們的需求。你必須記住，絲束的價值和捲菸的最終價格只佔很小的比例。

So making sure they have it to sell their product at very high margins is incredibly important to them. And that's now the focus. So that's allowed us to get quite a bit of price up last year, so already good momentum, seeing some of that benefit already in the fourth quarter of last year that indicated the trajectory we're on for this year. So we give you these factors as sustainable and improving the earnings quite a bit. So I would say this year is going to be at least $275 million when we put all those factors together.

因此，確保他們能夠以極高的利潤率銷售產品對他們來說至關重要。而這正是現在的重點。這讓我們去年的價格上漲了不少，所以已經形成了良好的勢頭，去年第四季已經看到了一些收益，這預示著我們今年的發展軌跡。我們認為這些因素是可持續的，並且會大幅提高獲利。所以，我認為，如果把所有這些因素綜合起來，今年的獲利至少會達到2.75億美元。

The other thing that it does is it gives us a much more solid base for our overall cellulosic stream and very strong cash flow to support the investments we're making in the circular economy, not just the polyester side, but we have a huge number of opportunities on the cellulosic side, with our recycling capabilities to take plastic waste into that product also being biodegradable is allowing us to realize why growth in our Naia textiles, we told you a lot about. So you're going to hear a lot more this year around Aventa for food service that has a huge market opportunity to replace polystyrene and the microbeads. So the cellulosic stream is shifting to being pretty attractive and sort of when we put it all together, growth business.

它帶來的另一個好處是，它為我們的整體纖維素業務奠定了更堅實的基礎，並帶來了非常強勁的現金流，以支持我們在循環經濟領域的投資，而不僅僅是聚酯纖維方面的投資。我們在纖維素方面擁有大量的機會，我們能夠將塑膠廢物回收利用，製成可生物降解的產品，這讓我們意識到了Naia紡織品業務增長的原因，我們已經多次提到這一點。所以，今年你會聽到更多關於Aventa在食品服務領域的消息，它擁有巨大的市場機會來取代聚苯乙烯和微珠。所以，纖維素業務正在變得非常有吸引力，綜合起來看，它是一項成長業務。

And just on cash flow, you mentioned it increased to $1.4 billion this year due to a number of actions you're taking. Can you just sort of unpack those actions you're taking and specifically working capital release this year?

就現金流而言，您提到由於採取了一系列措施，今年的現金流增長到了14億美元。您能否具體解釋一下您正在採取的這些措施，特別是今年的營運資金釋放？

Yes, David, this is Willie. I would highlight to your point, basically, in 2022, I'll call it the inflationary pressures consumed another roughly $300 million in working capital. As we look at 2023, we see, call it, an absence of that inflationary pressure as well as we optimize the inventory for the new demand levels. We think there's at least $300 million on that front that we'll benefit from on a year-over-year basis.

是的，大衛，我是威利。我想強調你的觀點，基本上，在2022年，通膨壓力又消耗了約3億美元的營運資金。展望2023年，我們預期通膨壓力將消失，同時我們也會根據新的需求水準優化庫存。我們認為，在這方面我們將至少獲得3億美元的年比收益。

Also, as you think about cash earnings, I would say you need to look at higher cash earnings year-over-year as we normalize for the pension and also as you normalize for the variable comp coming back to normal. Those 2 items should put us at $1.4 billion or above, and higher taxes will bring us back down to the $1.4 billion level. So that's a high-level bridge group.

另外，說到現金收益，我認為，隨著退休金和浮動薪酬的正常化，現金收益將逐年增加。這兩個因素應該會使我們的現金收益達到或超過14億美元，而更高的稅收將使我們的現金收益回落到14億美元的水平。所以，這是一個高水準的過渡性群體。

Our next question today comes from Alex Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

今天的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Alex Yefremov。

The price of virgin plastics has been very volatile lately. So has this is the interest in recycled content that you're negotiating changed at all given lower virgin plastic prices and perhaps weaker demand?

近期原生塑膠的價格波動很大。那麼，鑑於原生塑膠價格下跌以及需求減弱，你們正在談判的再生塑膠的興趣是否發生了變化？

So a good question. We haven't seen any real change in people's interest when it comes to recycled content. If you think about it, the brands have set out very aggressive goals in '25 and 2030. And the pressure out there for why they set those goals is just increasing, not decreasing when it comes to plastic waste. So consumers are very sensitive to this topic. There's obviously a lot of environmental, NGOs putting a lot of pressure on this; and politicians, both in Europe and in the U.S. are doubling down on sustainability, climate impact, plastic waste and the policies that they're putting forward.

所以，這是個好問題。我們並沒有看到人們對可回收材料的興趣有任何真正的改變。想想看，各大品牌在2025年和2030年都設定了非常激進的目標。而關於他們設定這些目標的原因，外界對他們施加的壓力卻不斷增加，而不是在塑膠垃圾問題上有所緩解。所以消費者對這個話題非常敏感。顯然，許多環保非政府組織正在對此施加巨大壓力；歐洲和美國的政界人士都在加倍關注永續性、氣候影響、塑膠垃圾以及他們正在推行的政策。

In Europe, you've got extensive policy around plastic waste reduction and recycling that was passed a couple of years ago and the rules are being implemented now that requires you to have 30% recycled content in your packages, if you want to put them on the shelf in '25 and taxes for whatever it doesn't have recycle content in it. So there are significant economic drivers in Europe that are driving brands to be committed to that.

歐洲幾年前就通過了廣泛的塑膠垃圾減量和回收政策，現在正在實施的規定要求，如果你想在2025年將產品上架，包裝中必須含有30%的再生材料，並且對不含再生材料的部分徵稅。因此，歐洲有強大的經濟驅動力，推動品牌致力於此。

In the U.S., the NGO pressure, the social media pressure on brands is pretty high. And you now have at least 5 states already passing some version of legislation that's driving change like what's going on in Europe, and some of those are quite big states like California. So the policy pressure and almost requirements to do it are there versus pay a tax and from a brand that's easier to be sustainable than pay a tax from a choice point of view. So the brands have these commitments. The other challenge I've got is the mechanical industry is not remotely capable of supplying the recycled content that's needed by this 2025 time frame back into food grade, while material gets recycled down into other applications like textiles and park benches, et cetera.

在美國，非政府組織和社群媒體對品牌的壓力相當大。現在至少有5個州已經通過了某種形式的立法，推動類似歐洲正在發生的變革，其中一些州的規模相當大，例如加州。因此，政策壓力和幾乎必須執行的措施，與納稅相比，從品牌本身選擇的角度來看，永續發展比納稅更容易。所以品牌必須做出這些承諾。我面臨的另一個挑戰是，機械行業根本無法在2025年之前將所需的再生材料供應到食品級，而這些材料則會被回收用於其他用途，例如紡織品和公園長椅等等。

But they -- but to get it back to food grade of that quality mechanical recycling just can't meet these goals. So the need for our capability is very much there. The brand engagement is very strong. And we've seen tremendous success already on the specialty front, as we've shared with you with the 1,000 opportunities that we're pursuing with customers around our first plant here in Kingsport. But on the PG side, like the Pepsi contract that we just accomplished, we see that the central part of actually solving this crisis.

但是，要將這種品質的飲料恢復到食品級，機械回收根本無法滿足這些目標。因此，我們的能力需求非常大。品牌參與度非常高。我們在特種飲料領域已經取得了巨大的成功，正如我們之前分享的，我們正在金斯波特的第一家工廠周圍與客戶共同探索1000個機會。但在PG方面，例如我們剛剛完成的百事可樂合同，我們認為這是真正解決這場危機的核心。

The other thing I would note that a drop in demand in short term -- Yes. I just forgot mentioned one thing on the rPET, if you're looking at short-term demand and it's dropping, that's actually not about packaging. It's the carpet people and the textile people having such low demand. They were also buying clear bottles, and they're not buying those clear bottles anymore for their feedstock. And so that's why short-term demand is coming off is purely what's going on in the durables and building construction sector has nothing to do with packaging.

我還想指出的另一件事是短期需求下降——是的。我剛才忘了提到rPET，如果你關注的是短期需求下降，那其實跟包裝無關。而是地毯和紡織業的需求低迷。他們之前也購買透明瓶子，但現在不再購買這些瓶子作為原料了。所以短期需求下降純粹是耐久財和建築業的情況，與包裝無關。

And just a follow-up on Advanced Materials, Mark. Do you need raw materials to come down from where they are today to get to your targets of be meaningfully up versus 2021? Or are you assuming sort of current spot raw material prices pretty well for the rest of the year?

馬克，關於先進材料，我再問個問題。為了實現2021年價格大幅上漲的目標，原物料價格是否需要從目前的水平回落？或者，您認為今年剩餘時間的現貨原料價格將保持相當不錯的水平？

Yes. On the spread assumption that we've got and how Advanced Materials improves, we're assuming that we don't have another inflation crisis like we did last year, right? So again, the PVOH prices were extraordinarily high because the VAM producers, half of them in the U.S. were unable to operate for 5 months. So we had prices for some periods of the spring and the summer were double because of that extreme market tightness. And we had to buy a lot of very high-priced material from the spot market out of Asia to continue to supply our customers.

是的。根據我們現有的價差假設以及先進材料業務的改善，我們假設不會再像去年那樣出現通膨危機，對嗎？所以，VOH價格之所以異常高昂，是因為VAM生產商（其中一半在美國）停產了五個月。由於市場極度緊張，春夏季節某些時期的價格甚至翻了一番。為了繼續供應客戶，我們不得不從亞洲現貨市場大量購買高價材料。

So getting rid of all that market tightness, which is where sort of VAM and PVOH prices have now gone to some degree. I think there's still more coming down, but we're just using where we are today for this quarter and how we project spread improvement versus last year. Same with PX. We're not assuming a dramatic improvement relative to where PX is now. You could look at 6 million tons of PX capacity coming online this quarter in China, and PX prices could get lower, but that would be upside. We're not banking on that in our outlook. We are assuming energy costs get lower, as I said, we're using the forward curve on natural gas for that.

所以，擺脫市場緊俏的局面，VAM 和 PVOH 的價格目前在某種程度上已經回落。我認為價格還會進一步下跌，但我們只是根據本季的現狀以及我們預測的價差與去年相比的改善情況來判斷。 PX 也是如此。我們並不假設 PX 的價格會比現在大幅上漲。你可以想像一下，本季中國將有 600 萬噸 PX 產能上線，PX 價格可能會下跌，但那將是利好。我們的展望並不依賴這一點。我們假設能源成本會下降，正如我所說，我們使用天然氣的遠期曲線來預測。

But that's what's in the sort of outlook we're giving you for this base case. Could things be higher? Sure. but that would require a pretty significant move up in oil from the sort of $80, $90 range we're in. And I think we feel good about this base case given sort of the world that we're in and the macroeconomic challenges that we face right now.

但這就是我們在此基準情境下所給出的展望。油價還會更高嗎？當然。但這需要油價從目前的80美元到90美元區間大幅上漲。考慮到我們所處的世界情勢以及我們目前面臨的宏觀經濟挑戰，我認為我們對這一基準情境感到滿意。

Our next question comes from Michael Leithead with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的邁克爾·萊特黑德。

First question, just on the circular plastic build-out, a bit of inflation so far, and you still need to break ground on the second and third facility. So can you just talk about what you're doing today to help make sure we don't get further CapEx creep year over, say, the next year or so?

第一個問題，關於循環塑膠工廠的建設，到目前為止，成本有所上漲，而且第二和第三個工廠仍然需要動工。您能否談談目前正在採取哪些措施，以確保我們在未來一年左右不會出現資本支出進一步攀升的情況？

Sure. So there's a lot that we've been doing to manage a difficult capital construction environment last year for the Kingsport plant and have done a great job in keeping those costs under control. A little frustrated by the challenges in getting craft labor to get the plant sort of completed here, but the cost control is working well. And we're confident we'll get this plant up and running early summer.

當然。去年，我們為應對金斯波特工廠艱難的基建環境做了許多工作，並在控製成本方面做得很好。雖然在招募技工方面遇到了一些挑戰，導致工廠基本上完工，但成本控制效果良好。我們有信心，這家工廠將在初夏投入營運。

When it comes to the next 2 projects, there are a couple of things we're doing. One is some of the commentary we provided in our prepared remarks about how we're building these plants. So we had a design for building these plants where we were always going to start out with 100 KMT of capacity, but designing them upfront to expand to be 50% bigger when you add it on the second phase. We've switched to taking a more standardized approach to sort of say, look, we're going to build identically what we're building here in Kingsport in France and in the second U.S. project with Pepsi. So a very standardized approach to leverage all the engineering, procurement, construction approach to sort of build a replica of what we're doing here in a very efficient manner. So that's one way we're going to help to keep the capital cost down.

關於接下來的兩個項目，我們正在做一些事情。其中之一就是我們在準備好的發言稿中就這些工廠的建設方式所做的一些說明。我們最初的設計是，初始產能始終為10萬噸，但前期設計時，考慮到第二期擴建後產能將擴大50%。我們已經轉向採用更標準化的方法，也就是說，我們將建造與我們在法國金斯波特以及與百事可樂合作的第二個美國項目完全相同的工廠。這是一種非常標準化的方法，可以充分利用所有工程、採購和施工環節，以非常有效率的方式複製我們在這裡所做的工作。這是我們幫助降低資本成本的一種方式。

Now to be clear, we're still spending capital at the site to make sure the infrastructure is in place for what we will do is double the capacity at each of these sites over time after we get the first site -- first modules up, if you will. So we're actually sort of expanding what we think we can deliver between now and 2030, doubling it versus, call it, 50%, but we're taking a more standardized approach. And this also allows us to take a lot of insights we have around how to improve the technology on energy efficiency and feedstock robustness into that second phase in this more modular approach. So there's a variety of benefits.

現在需要明確的是，我們仍在現場投入資金，以確保基礎設施到位，以便在第一個工廠——也就是第一批模組建成後，逐步將每個工廠的產能翻倍。因此，我們實際上是在擴大我們認為從現在到2030年可以實現的產能，將其翻一番，而不是現在的50%，但我們採取的是更標準化的方法。這也使我們能夠將我們在如何改善能源效率和原料穩定性技術方面的許多見解，以這種更模組化的方法應用於第二階段。所以，這樣做有很多好處。

The other thing we have really factored into our capital estimates yet is a slowing macroeconomic environment should create some deflation in the construction industry. We're already seeing it in the price of steel and pipes and things like that. So materials are going to get cheaper. I don't think the cost per labor hour is going to go down. But I do think we're going to have more availability of resources, higher quality resources. So productivity will improve in materials and equipment, will probably come off in price. So that will help also keep control on the CapEx numbers.

我們在資本估算中真正考慮的另一個因素是，宏觀經濟環境放緩應該會為建築業帶來一些通貨緊縮。我們已經從鋼材、管道等產品的價格中看到了這一點。所以材料會變得更便宜。我不認為每工時成本會下降。但我確實認為我們將擁有更多可用的資源，以及更高品質的資源。因此，材料和設備的生產率將提高，價格可能會下降。這也有助於控制資本支出。

Great. And then second, just on Fibers and the new contracts there. If I remember, most of your tow business was moved to long-term contracts a few years ago. So is this new pricing just reflective of a portion of your current business that we'll see further resets over the next 2 years? Or is this a big reset for almost all of your business here today into '23?

好的。第二點，關於光纖業務和新合約。如果我沒記錯的話，幾年前你們的拖車生意大多轉為了長期合約。那麼，這次的新定價是否僅僅反映了你們目前業務的一部分，而這些業務在未來兩年內會進一步調整？還是說，這幾乎是你們目前在華所有業務在2023年的重大調整？

It's a big reset for most of our business. So about 2/3 of our business is on contract. A lot of that is multiyear. Some of it is annual. And even with what is not on contract, it's pretty firm agreements when it comes to volume on an annual basis. So we -- just the nature of when all these contracts started to turn over happen to be last year into this year that gave us the opportunity to have these negotiations and increase these prices. That's why you're seeing this all happen now as opposed to a year ago when the market was already started getting tight, but we didn't have the contractual flexibility to make these changes until now.

這對我們大部分業務來說都是重大調整。我們大約三分之二的業務都是合約制的。其中很多是多年期合約，有些是年度合約。即使沒有合同，就年度交易量而言，也是相當固定的協議。所以，所有這些合約的到期時間恰好是去年到今年，這給了我們進行談判並提高價格的機會。這就是為什麼你現在看到這一切發生，而不是一年前，當時市場已經開始緊張，但直到現在我們才擁有合約彈性來做出這些改變。

Our next question today comes from Vincent Andrews with Barclays -- sorry, Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們今天的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Vincent Andrews——抱歉，我是摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Mark, could you talk a little bit more about, I guess, 2 things. One, I was struck by the consumer durables comment in Advanced Materials where your volume was down 40%. That just seems like an enormous number. So could you just talk a little bit more about how that's actually impacting Advanced Materials business and what the -- sort of cadence of improvement is -- it's going to be? And then also, could you just sort of detail a little bit your assumptions about the auto business for '23? I think I read that you've got expectations for sequential decline from 4Q to 1Q and some modest growth overall in '23. But is there anything changing about the customer mix of your products for '23 in terms of the cars they're building and the tech that's in them or anything like that, just given, it seems like the automakers are starting to focus on different things in a more recessionary environment.

馬克，您能否再多談兩件事？第一，我對先進材料公司關於耐用消費品業務的評論感到震驚，你們的銷量下降了40%。這看起來是一個很大的數字。您能否再多談談這對先進材料業務的實際影響，以及改善的節奏是怎樣的？另外，您能否詳細談談您對2023年汽車業務的預測？我讀到過，您預計2023年汽車業務將從第四季度到第一季環比下降，但總體上會溫和增長。但是，考慮到汽車製造商在經濟衰退的環境下似乎開始關注不同的領域，2023年你們產品的客戶結構會有什麼變化嗎？例如，他們生產的汽車、汽車所採用的技術等等。

Sure. So both are very relevant important questions for us. The consumer durable business is incredibly important markets where we sell our Tritan at very high margins and have had tremendous growth over the last decade. What I can tell you, and we've been doing a very deep dive on what's going on in the fourth quarter, as you would expect, it's entirely market-driven. When you look at some of what's going on in the specific parts of the market we're in, which is small appliances, housewares, electronics, that part of the durables world. It's just been declining really for quite a long time, right? So the underlying market started declining in the second quarter of last year modestly.

當然。所以這兩個問題對我們來說都非常重要。耐用消費品業務是一個極其重要的市場，我們在這個市場銷售Tritan材料，利潤率很高，而且在過去十年中實現了巨大的成長。我可以告訴你的是，我們一直在深入研究第四季度的情況，正如你所料，這完全是由市場驅動的。當你觀察我們所處市場中特定領域的情況，例如小家電、家居用品、電子產品，這些耐用品領域，你會發現它們已經下滑了很長一段時間了，對吧？所以，基礎市場從去年第二季開始小幅下滑。

And then as people started switching to travel, leisure versus buying a lot of durable goods. You saw that in the announcements from Walmart and Target, if you go back to May. And what we didn't really -- fully appreciate is just how much overstocking the retail sector was doing in ordering from everyone who could supply them because they were so short of material and then suddenly it all showed up and they had a lot more inventory to get -- to get out. And with inflation being so high, the consumer durable sector is the first thing people stop buying. And you can see that in the semiconductor data, you can see that in the electronics where they're dramatically down.

後來，人們開始轉向旅遊和休閒，而不是大量購買耐用品。如果你回顧一下5月沃爾瑪和塔吉特的公告，你會發現這一點。我們之前並沒有真正——完全意識到——零售業究竟積累了多少庫存，他們從所有供應商那裡訂貨，因為他們原材料嚴重短缺，然後突然間庫存就全部湧現出來，他們不得不大量囤貨——不得不清倉。在通膨如此之高的情況下，耐用消費品產業是人們首先停止購買的商品。你可以在半導體數據中看到這一點，在電子產品領域，它們的銷售量急劇下降。

So when we look at what's going on in the end market, you can see a lot of evidence at the primary demand level of demand being off, but not nearly as much as us, right? So the retail sales data will show our direct end markets might be off 10%, 15%. And we're up 40%. So the rest of that is, by definition, destocking. And that's because of these retail inventory channels that are so overstuffed, and it just took a while to get that momentum to try and pull down production through the entire chain. So it's challenged. And it's continuing into the first quarter, and we expect it to be equally challenging this quarter as the fourth.

所以，當我們觀察終端市場的情況時，你會發現在主要需求層面有很多需求下滑的證據，但下滑幅度遠不及我們，對吧？零售銷售數據顯示，我們的直接終端市場可能下滑了10%、15%。而我們的成長了40%。剩下的部分，顧名思義，就是去庫存。這是因為這些零售庫存管道過於擁擠，需要一段時間才能形成這種勢頭，才能試圖降低整個供應鏈的產量。所以，這很具有挑戰性。這種情況將持續到第一季度，我們預計本季的挑戰將與第四季一樣大。

But at some point, it's going to end. And from what we can see so far, we think they will get this under control mostly by the end of this first quarter, and then you've got a big step up in demand when the destocking is over to sort of lower demand than what is normal but still a lot better than 40% down, and that's part of the step-up in earnings for Advanced Materials as you move into the second quarter.

但總有一天，這種情況會結束。從目前的情況來看，我們認為他們會在第一季末基本控制住局面。去庫存結束後，需求會大幅上升，雖然低於正常水平，但仍比40%的降幅好得多。這也是先進材料公司進入第二季後獲利成長的一部分。

On the auto side, demand, we're being, I think, conservative probably a little bit more conservative than what the consultants would say about demand being slightly down in the fourth quarter -- in the first quarter and not improving much for the year. So if we're wrong about that and production improves more, that's a lot of upside because those are very high-value markets that we serve in our earnings. But the shift in the market, to get at your question, Vince, it is really important. That shift is very favorable to us. So we now got about 10% of our sales going into EVs at very high margins. You have to remember that each EV is about 3.5x more value for us than an ICE car. There's a lot more class in an EV car and a lot more functionality. They're putting in it from acoustics to solar rejection, to heads-up display, et cetera. So the value capture there is tremendous on a mix lift basis.

在汽車方面，需求方面，我認為我們比較保守，可能比諮詢顧問所說的第四季度——第一季——需求會略有下降，而且全年不會有太大改善——要保守一些。所以，如果我們的預測是錯誤的，產量會進一步提高，那將帶來很大的上行空間，因為這些市場價值很高，是我們獲利來源。但回到你的問題，文斯，市場的轉變非常重要。這種轉變對我們非常有利。我們現在大約有10%的銷售額流向了利潤率很高的電動車。你必須記住，每輛電動車對我們來說的價值大約是內燃機汽車的3.5倍。電動車檔次更高，功能也更多。他們把從音響系統到太陽能阻隔、平視顯示器等等都融入其中。因此，從綜合提升來看，電動車的價值獲取是巨大的。

So the EV trend, and we are aligned with the top players on this with our products is a significant opportunity. I'd also say head-up display in general, not just in EVs, but all cars have a lot of growth momentum. It was a big mix uplift last year and even though down market, and we think that trend is going to continue and accelerate into this year as a result of the semiconductors, there's a lot in the HUD. There's a lot of times if you were trying to buy a car last year, they would let you order the HUD because of semiconductor limitations, that's going to resolve. And so we see the HUD market picking up. I'd also note that, that's in large. The paint protection business and the performance films business is doing fantastic, very strong growth, very high margins. So we got a lot of mix uplift relative to the underlying market in auto that helped us offset some of the challenges last year and certainly will be a significant lever versus last year into this year.

因此，電動車的趨勢以及我們與頂級廠商在產品上的一致，是一個重要的機會。我還想說，抬頭顯示器（HUD）總體而言，不僅僅是電動車，所有汽車都擁有巨大的成長勢頭。去年，抬頭顯示器的產品組合大幅提升，即使市場低迷，我們認為由於半導體市場的影響，今年這一趨勢仍將持續並加速，HUD市場需求旺盛。去年，很多時候，由於半導體的限制，他們會允許你訂購HUD，而這個問題將會得到解決。因此，我們看到HUD市場正在回升。我還想指出的是，我們的漆面保護業務和高性能薄膜業務表現非常出色，成長強勁，利潤率也很高。因此，相對於汽車市場的整體情況，我們的產品組合大幅提升，這幫助我們抵消了去年的一些挑戰，並且無疑將成為今年與去年相比的一個重要槓桿。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Of that $200 million in cost savings, how does it split between SG&A and cost of goods sold?

在這 2 億美元的成本節省中，銷售、一般及行政費用和銷售成本是如何分配的？

Jeff, thanks for the question. I would highlight we have 2 major pillars within this. We've highlighted roughly $125 million of this. We'll be taking from our operations, which would include manufacturing and supply chain and then $75 million, I'll call it, more in the non-operations which would be SG&A and primarily. So I'll break it down a little bit for you. So on the $125 million, what gives us confidence is we expect more efficient operations as we run at lower rates due to moderating demand. As you think about the supply chains as well as our planned and unplanned schedule last year, we expect a significant improvement. I also think we've demonstrated even back to the COVID environment that we also leverage a pretty variable cost structure when it comes to leveraging overtime contractors, and we're already taking the actions at the end of the year, starting in Q1 to change that cost structure to the current demand levels. And we're very focused on operating at the most efficient level from an operations standpoint as we assess the demand environment that Mark has highlighted here.

Jeff，謝謝你的提問。我想強調一下，我們主要有兩大支柱。我們已經強調了其中大約1.25億美元。我們將從營運部門（包括製造和供應鏈）中支出，然後7500萬美元，我稱之為非營運部門，主要是銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）。我來給你稍微分解一下。關於這1.25億美元，讓我們有信心的是，由於需求放緩，我們的營運效率降低，預計營運效率會更高。考慮到供應鏈以及我們去年的計劃內和計劃外進度，我們預計會有顯著的改善。此外，我認為，即使在新冠疫情期間，我們已經證明，在利用加班承包商方面，我們利用了相當多變的成本結構。我們已經在年底採取行動，從第一季開始，將成本結構調整到與當前需求水準相符的水準。在評估Mark強調的需求環境的同時，我們非常注重從營運的角度以最高效的水平運作。

On the supply chain and the network optimization, we see $30 million to $50 million in that space as you think about us having to air freight, use inefficient modes on a year-over-year basis. So a substantial increase on that front. Also, as you saw in the prepared materials, we expect to have roughly $25 million lower maintenance year-over-year. And we're also looking at our asset footprint and as you saw, some restructuring charges there as we look on a go-forward basis. So that's on the manufacturing front. On the non-operations I would highlight, we've already, I'll call, reduced discretionary, and we're starting that here in Q1. So as you think about external spend versus our workforce reduction, that's about 50-50 from a cost impact on a year-over-year basis.

在供應鏈和網路優化方面，考慮到我們不得不使用空運等低效運輸方式，我們預計該領域的成本將年減 3,000 萬到 5,000 萬美元。因此，這方面的成本大幅成長。此外，正如您在準備的材料中所看到的，我們預計維護成本將比去年同期減少約 2500 萬美元。此外，我們也正在關注我們的資產足跡，正如您所看到的，我們正在考慮一些重組費用，以展望未來。這些都是製造方面的支出。關於非營運支出，我想強調的是，我們已經減少了可自由支配的開支，我們將從第一季開始實施。因此，考慮到外部支出與裁員人數，成本年比影響約為 50-50%。

Okay. And so these are net reductions. So does it mean that SG&A should go down $75 million all in, in 2023, exclusive of the $110 million lift in pension expense? And can you explain what the event was that caused the $110 million lift in pension expense?

好的。所以這些都是淨減少額。那麼，這是否意味著2023年銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）總計應該減少7,500萬美元，不包括1.1億美元的退休金支出增加？您能解釋一下是什麼事件導致了1.1億美元的退休金支出增加嗎？

Okay. So let me break that into a couple of parts for you, Jeff. So on the pension, I'll hit that first. That will not impact SG&A or manufacturing, it's set on our income statement within the EBIT. There was 2 drivers as you think about pension, and they're equal. So the pension and interest to costs, we had lower discount rates. You can think about 200 basis points on the interest cost in 2022, that will increase over 500 basis points, so a 300 basis point change on the interest cost. Our assets are lower year-over-year as you think about the market basically being down about 20% versus our assumed return of about 6%. That's about $50 million each is what I would roughly say there.

好的。傑夫，我先把這個問題分解成幾個部分。首先，我先說養老金。這不會影響銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）或製造費用，它在我們的損益表中的息稅前利潤（EBIT）中確定。說到退休金，有兩個驅動因素，而且它們的影響相同。退休金和利息與成本的比率，我們的折現率較低。你可以想像一下，2022 年利息成本大約下降了 200 個基點，而今年將增加 500 個基點以上，所以利息成本的變化幅度是 300 個基點。考慮到市場基本上下跌了 20%，而我們假設的回報率約為 6%，我們的資產規模比去年同期有所下降。我粗略地估計，這兩個因素分別約為 5,000 萬美元。

On the SG&A question, our variable comp will be normalizing. So that will be a headwind on a year-over-year basis that we expect that to be substantially offset by the $75 million.

關於銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 問題，我們的變動成本將會正常化。因此，與去年同期相比，這將是一個阻力，我們預計這筆支出將被 7,500 萬美元大幅抵銷。

So Jeff, one way to think about sort of the waterfall across the businesses and the cost actions is, the cost reduction actions are sort of equal to offsetting both the pension costs and the return to variable comp and inflation, right? We put all that sort of together. So sort of the fixed cost structure, if you will, is flat. The Fibers improvement offsets the normalization in CI. So you have to have a point of view that the 2 specialty businesses are able to deliver earnings growth over the annualized FX headwind for this year. That's another way to sort of think about how we get to sort of flat EPS, including pension is those specialty businesses have to offset basically inflation this year and growth relative to last year. We've given you (inaudible) on sort of where that growth comes from.

傑夫，思考跨業務瀑布效應和成本行動的一種方法是，成本削減行動相當於抵消退休金成本、浮動薪資回報和通貨膨脹，對嗎？我們把所有這些因素綜合起來。所以，如果你願意的話，固定成本結構是平的。纖維業務的改善抵消了固定成本的正常化。所以你必須有一個觀點，即這兩家特種業務能夠在今年克服年度外匯逆風的情況下實現盈利增長。這是思考我們如何實現包括退休金在內的每股盈餘持平的另一種方式，即這些特種業務必須抵消今年的通貨膨脹和相對於去年的成長。我們已經（聽不清楚）說明了這種成長的來源。

Is the pension expense, cash or noncash?

退休金支出是現金還是非現金？

It is noncash. So there's no impact on our cash flow.

它是非現金的，所以對我們的現金流沒有影響。

That's why we held the guidance where we did just talk about growing earnings of the segments.

這就是為什麼我們堅持只談論各部門獲利成長的指導方針。

Our next question today comes from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

今天的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Willie, I'll give you a shout later on and talk about how Fermium can help on your pension plan asset returns. Mark, you mentioned in the prepared remarks that you're going to keep the cracker down through the first quarter. Can you talk about some of the factors and the outlook that you're seeing on the CI side of things and when should -- should we expect that the cracker will come back up in 2Q?

威利，我稍後會聯絡你，談談 Fermium 如何幫助你提高退休金計畫的資產回報。馬克，你在準備好的發言中提到，你會在第一季保持裂解裝置產量的低點。你能談談你看到的一些因素以及你在 CI 方面看到的前景嗎？我們什麼時候應該預期裂解裝置產量會在第二季回升？

Yes, our expectation is the cracker starts to come back up in Q2, anyway you can do the math on sort of cracking spreads right now last year. Remember, our crackers are a bit different where they're highly oriented towards propane versus ethane. And we're trying to make as much propylene as we can and as little ethylene as we can with the investments we've made in switching into RGP, which we're doing as much as we can because the ethylene market is very economically challenged for basically at cash costs on bulk ethylene.

是的，我們預計裂解裝置產量將在第二季度恢復成長，無論如何，您可以計算去年目前的裂解價差。請記住，我們的裂解裝置略有不同，它們主要以丙烷而非乙烷為主。我們正努力利用已投入的RGP轉換投資，盡可能多生產丙烯，盡可能少生產乙烯。我們正在盡最大努力，因為乙烯市場在經濟上面臨巨大挑戰，大宗乙烯的現金成本基本上保持不變。

But as the propylene markets are starting to improve, you can sort of see that through January. The spreads -- the crackers are recovering as we go through this quarter and that feeds into our expectation that, that is likely to continue or hold and we bring the cracker back up. Demand right now continues to be challenged. So we don't really need as much of the output, which is why it's easy to sort of make this decision in the moment for both the demand and the crackers in my point of view. But we expect demand to get better in the second quarter as well as the spreads to continue to sort of stabilize at these better margins. So that's sort of how we're looking at it at this stage. You have to remember that propylene prices are well below and it is sort of historical norm to oil. They're very depressed. If you go run that analysis, it's pretty extraordinary. So we're really just trying to get back to a more normal relationship to the price of oil on company.

但隨著丙烯市場開始好轉，你可以在一月份看到這一點。隨著本季的推進，裂解裝置的價差正在回升，這符合我們的預期，這種情況可能會持續或維持下去，我們會重新提高裂解裝置的產量。目前的需求仍面臨挑戰。所以我們實際上不需要那麼多產量，這就是為什麼在我看來，目前無論是針對需求還是裂解裝置，都很容易做出這樣的決定。但我們預期第二季需求會好轉，價差也會持續穩定在更高的利潤率。這就是我們目前的看法。你必須記住，丙烯價格遠低於歷史水平，這在某種程度上是石油的歷史常態。它們非常低迷。如果你進行分析，你會發現情況相當不尋常。所以我們實際上只是在努力讓公司與油價的關係恢復到更正常的水平。

Terrific. And then if I can ask about the second methanolysis unit in the U.S. You'd indicated in the remarks that you've made progress on permitting, but you haven't selected a location as of yet. Can you just talk about how that process plays out? I mean I don't doubt that communities would welcome a methanolysis unit in a locations, which can you talk about a little more color there?

太好了。然後我想問關於美國第二個甲醇分解裝置的問題。您在評論中提到，你們在審批方面取得了進展，但目前還沒有選定地點。您能不能談談這個過程是如何進行的？我的意思是，我毫不懷疑社區會歡迎在某個​​地方建立一個甲醇分解裝置，您能更詳細地談談嗎？

Sure. So we -- first of all, we're really excited to have this relationship with Pepsi that baseloads this facility and gives us the confidence to move quickly on this project. We are looking at multiple sites. As you might imagine, we're looking at existing sites we own and whether we can leverage all that brownfield and existing infrastructure costs down in Texas. But we're also looking at some other brownfield sites in some other states that could be attractive and evaluating the capital efficiency of each of these sites, the feedstock, benefits of each site as well as the incentives that different states are willing to provide to promote investing in the circular economy and playing a role in solving this environmental challenge.

當然。首先，我們非常高興能與百事可樂建立合作關係，這為工廠提供了基礎負荷，也讓我們有信心快速推進這個計畫。我們正在考察多個地點。正如你可能想像的，我們正在考察我們現有的工廠，以及我們能否充分利用德州的所有棕地和現有基礎設施成本。但我們也在考察其他一些州可能有吸引力的棕地工廠，並評估這些工廠的資本效率、原料、每個工廠的效益，以及不同州願意提供的激勵措施，以促進對循環經濟的投資，並在解決這一環境挑戰中發揮作用。

And the engagement, frankly, across the states has been really high. And as you said, I think they're all quite interested and excited to sort of participate in this kind of a green project. But we haven't finalized that. I'm hoping within the first half of this year, we'll have that finalized and then start moving very quickly on the -- on this -- so not just incentives, but the permitting and the site development and everything else. The advantage of our new sort of standardized approach in building these plants so allows us to start the engineering now without knowing what the site is going to be. So we're already spooling up engineering for this site and designing it. And then we'll do from what is -- what we call inside the battery limits, the actual operating units of this plant, the sort of infrastructure will obviously be dependent on which side we finally select.

坦白說，各州的參與度都非常高。正如你所說，我認為他們都非常感興趣，也非常期待參與這種綠色計畫。但我們還沒有最終敲定。我希望在今年上半年完成這項工作，然後迅速開始前進——不僅僅是激勵措施，還包括許可、場地開發以及其他所有方面。我們採用的新型標準化電廠建造方法的優點在於，它使我們能夠在不知道特定地點的情況下立即開始工程設計。因此，我們已經在為這個電廠選址進行工程設計。然後，我們將從所謂的「電池界限」內，也就是電廠的實際運作單元開始，基礎設施的類型顯然取決於我們最終選擇哪一方。

The next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

A couple of questions on your capital deployment. So in the prepared remarks last night, Mark, I think you mentioned your methanolysis investments in the aggregate would cost $2.25 billion, which is up about 10% relative to your prior projections. Can you talk about how that flows through? Is it going to be ratable over the next 5 years or some other shape? And then related to that, are your returns still the same? In other words, are you able to perhaps extract a larger premium to offset the higher project costs? And I guess more broadly for Willie, do you think CapEx will run $700 million to $800 million over the next several years? Or again, is there a different shape to that as you execute on these investments?

關於您的資本配置，我有幾個問題。馬克，昨晚準備好的演講稿中，您提到甲醇分解項目的總投資額將達到22.5億美元，比您之前的預測高出約10%。您能談談這筆資金是如何運作的嗎？未來5年內是按比例分配的，還是其他形式？與此相關的是，您的回報率是否仍然相同？換句話說，您是否能夠獲得更高的溢價來抵銷更高的專案成本？對威利來說，您認為未來幾年的資本支出會達到7億到8億美元嗎？或者，在執行這些投資時，會採取不同的方式嗎？

Kevin, thanks for the question. Yes, I would highlight here in 2022, we already invested approximately $300 million as we think about our circular investments that we highlighted in the prepared comments. So as you think about approaching $2 billion over the next 3 to 4 years. In 2022, '23, we're increasing our CapEx budget to $700 million to $800 million, that includes a step-up on a year-over-year basis. And yes, as you think about a normal, I'll call it, a large capital curve, it will definitely be over $800 million through that time horizon and probably will peak around $1 billion to $1.2 billion.

凱文，謝謝你的提問。是的，我想強調一下，考慮到我們在準備好的評論中強調的循環投資，我們在2022年已經投資了大約3億美元。所以，未來3到4年，我們的投資將接近20億美元。到2022年或2023年，我們的資本支出預算將增加到7億到8億美元，其中包括逐年遞增。是的，考慮到正常的，我稱之為“大資本曲線”，在這段時間裡，我們的資本支出肯定會超過8億美元，最終可能會達到10億到12億美元的峰值。

Okay. And then the market?

好的。那麼市場呢？

As I think about broader capital allocation...

當我考慮更廣泛的資本配置時...

Sorry, go ahead. You're talking about the returns, we didn't answer that question...

抱歉，請繼續。您說的是退貨問題，我們還沒回答這個問題…

Yes, I was just going to follow up on that. I think in the past, you talked about 12% plus.

是的，我只是想跟進一下這個問題。我記得你之前說過12%以上。

Yes. So on the return front, to be clear, what we announced in the prepared remarks today around the design of the facilities is the same as what we had in our economics back in 2021 innovation thing. So that the first phase was always going to be the -- around this 110,000 tons of waste being processed. And so the $450 million EBITDA has not changed, and we feel more confident in as we're actually securing prices with contracts and securing feedstock, both total ability as well as what it's going to cost supporting those economics.

是的。所以在回報方面，需要明確的是，我們今天在準備好的發言中宣布的設施設計與我們在2021年創新項目的經濟效益相同。因此，第一階段的目標一直是——處理大約11萬噸廢棄物。因此，4.5億美元的EBITDA沒有變化，而且我們對此更有信心，因為我們實際上正在透過合約確保價格，並確保原料，包括總產能以及支持這些經濟效益的成本。

The capital costs being a little bit higher than what we had talked about that sort of 10% increase that we discussed in our prepared remarks don't affect the returns. We said where our returns are above 12% for the second, third project, above 15% for the first project. We said greater than we have room to absorb some of these challenges because you always expect them to happen, frankly, when you're doing these kind of capital construction projects, and we always want to make sure we have robust plans for the economics to deliver returns.

資本成本略高於我們在準備好的發言稿中提到的10%的增幅，但這不會影響回報。我們說過，如果第二個和第三個專案的回報率超過12%，第一個專案的回報率超過15%，那麼我們就有空間來應對這些挑戰，因為坦白說，在進行這類基本建設專案時，你總是會預料到這些挑戰會發生，而且我們始終希望確保我們制定了穩健的計劃，以確保經濟效益，從而帶來回報。

Our next question comes from Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Matthew DeYoe。

One, I have missed this, but if we're looking at the Kingsport methanolysis unit, can we just walk through the progression from cost to profit how much commissioning costs in 2023 numbers? What do we think for how that moves to profit in 2024 and getting that full run rate earnings on that facility?

第一，我漏掉了一點，但如果我們看看金斯波特的甲醇分解裝置，我們能否簡單介紹一下從成本到利潤的演變過程？ 2023年的調試成本是多少？我們認為如何在2024年實現獲利，並實現該裝置滿載運轉時的收益？

Yes. So I would highlight as you think about the startup, we're talking about roughly $35 million, including, I'll call it, the depreciation as it starts up in the back half of the year. So as we think about the first project, you should be getting to a more normalized run rate of growth in 2024. And by the end of '25, we would expect to be close to the full run rate of the plants, which we've highlighted could approach roughly $150 million per project.

是的。所以，我想強調一下，就啟動成本而言，我們討論的大約是3500萬美元，其中包括下半年啟動時的折舊費用。所以，就第一個專案而言，到2024年應該會達到更正常的成長速度。到2025年底，我們預計工廠將接近滿載運轉，我們之前強調過，每個項目的成本可能接近1.5億美元。

All right. On that end, would that mean that 2024 is just neutral? Or would you see EBITDA? And then I guess just a question, you don't really talk much about buyback for next year. And I know CapEx is going up, but it still seems like maybe you have $200 million, $250 million of after dividend cash flow. Do we assume that goes to buyback or I mean your leverage is fine. Can you do an access of that?

好的。那麼，這是否意味著2024年的業績只是中性？還是您會看到EBITDA（息稅折舊攤提前利潤）？然後我想問一下，您很少談論明年的回購。我知道資本支出正在上升，但看起來您的股息後現金流可能仍有2億到2.5億美元。我們假設這些資金用於回購，或者您的槓桿率還不錯。您能解釋一下嗎？

Yes. So definitely, we expect 2024 to be accretive from our Kingsport circular methanolysis projects. So we're confident in the progress. You'll see revenue here in the back half of '23. That turns into earnings and growth in '24 and approaching those run rates as we expect these plants given, I'll call it, the market excitement that's around that in the 1,000 leads that we're already working on. As you think about...

是的。我們預計2024年金斯波特循環甲醇分解計畫的收入將會增加。我們對專案進展充滿信心。 2023年下半年，我們會看到收入的增加。 2024年，這些收入將轉化為獲利和成長，並接近我們預期的運作率，考慮到市場對我們已經在進行的1000個潛在客戶的熱情。想想看…

Capital?

首都？

On the capital front, versus share buybacks. So yes, we're on the capital allocation, our priorities remain the same. We increased the dividend here in the fourth quarter for 2023. Also, as we think about $700 million to $800 million of CapEx, and we're looking at prioritization of bolt-ons versus share repurchases. We're going to always fully leverage our cash flow to give shareholders return. So there is that capacity and we will put the cash to use.

在資本方面，與股票回購相比。是的，我們注重資本配置，我們的優先事項保持不變。我們在2023年第四季提高了股利。此外，考慮到我們7億到8億美元的資本支出，我們正在考慮優先考慮附加投資而不是股票回購。我們將始終充分利用我們的現金流，為股東帶來回報。所以，我們有這個能力，我們會把現金用起來。

We always have this debate around best uses of cash in there on a principal basis. When we look at the circular platform, the capital we're deploying there has substantially better returns and valuation potential for the company than buying back stock today, and we think that's the appropriate way to deploy the capital versus buybacks on that front.

我們一直在圍繞如何最佳地利用現金進行討論。從循環平台來看，我們部署在那裡的資本比現在回購股票能為公司帶來更好的回報和估值潛力，我們認為這是配置資本而非回購的最佳方式。

Sure. But that's not contemplated in the earnings guidance, right? Or is it?

當然。但獲利預測裡沒有考慮到這一點，對吧？還是有？

What?

什麼？

Any accretion from like a deal or a buyback or anything like that? That would be a huge upside.

透過交易、回購或類似方式獲得的任何增值？那將是一個巨大的優點。

So, just to highlight, obviously, we executed $1 billion of share buybacks in 2022, both from our operating cash flow and the divestiture proceeds. So we will have, I call it, EPS accretion as a result of the full year benefit from that. Right now, that's primarily offset by higher interest expense.

所以，要強調的是，我們在2022年進行了10億美元的股票回購，這筆資金來自我們的營運現金流量和資產剝離所得。因此，由於全年收益的增加，我們將實現每股收益的成長。目前，這主要被更高的利息支出所抵消。

Our next question comes from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Mark, just one question. You spent a lot of time over the last several years transforming the portfolio to more specialty assets. And when you think about the performance in the second half, kind of the start to the first quarter, what can you point out to folks that demonstrate that maybe the performances has that these special characteristics or maybe it's more the bounce back in the second half? And clearly, your multiple is -- where it should be, if it's the case. So just curious what your thoughts on that.

馬克，我只想問一個問題。過去幾年，您花了很多時間將投資組合轉型為更具特色的資產。您想想下半年，也就是第一季初的表現，您能指出哪些方面，能夠表明這些表現可能具有這些特殊性，或者更可能是下半年的反彈？顯然，您的本益比已經達到了預期水平，如果真是這樣的話。我很好奇您對此有何看法。

Sure. So first of all, we think we've made tremendous progress in improving our portfolio over the years. We've obviously divested a lot of commodity businesses, acquired some great specialty businesses. In the past, if you go back to that sort of 2011, '12 time frame as well through the acquisitions to '14 and the divestitures more recently and optimize the portfolio. So I think we have a very good track record and portfolio discipline. I think last year, as you look at it, it was a uniquely challenging year for 2 reasons that you have to sort of consider in judging a history and a future of this portfolio. Obviously, the fourth quarter turns out was the entirety of the earnings decline from a volume mix point of view. So we were actually flat in volume mix leading up to the fourth quarter and the entirety of the volume mix decline was driven there.

當然。首先，我們認為多年來我們在改善投資組合方面取得了巨大進展。我們剝離了大量大宗商品業務，並收購了一些優秀的特種業務。回顧過去，例如2011年、2012年，以及從2014年到最近的收購和剝離，我們優化了投資組合。所以我認為我們擁有非常良好的業績記錄和投資組合紀律。我認為去年是極具挑戰性的一年，在評判這個投資組合的歷史和未來時，有兩個原因需要考慮。首先，從交易量組合的角度來看，第四季顯然是獲利下滑的整個過程。因此，在第四季之前，我們的交易量組合實際上持平，而交易量組合的下滑正是在這一季度造成的。

And because of some of the very unique operational challenges we had last year, those limited our ability to deliver growth, especially in Advanced Materials. So those 2 factors sort of constrained what was on track at the beginning of January before the Ukrainian were in rapid inflation, everything else was going to be a really impressive year of earnings growth. So I wouldn't sort of overwork on trying to interpret too much into the 2022. Our challenge and our proof point will be if we deliver this performance that we've just sort of suggested in our outlook discussion today, in this kind of challenging economic environment, that's a really strong endorsement about the quality and strength of the portfolio to manage through these challenges.

由於我們去年面臨的一些非常獨特的營運挑戰，這些挑戰限制了我們實現成長的能力，尤其是在先進材料領域。因此，這兩個因素在一定程度上限制了我們在1月初烏克蘭快速通膨之前的獲利成長，其他所有業務都有望實現令人印象深刻的獲利成長。因此，我不會過度解讀2022年的業績。我們的挑戰和證明點在於，如果我們在如此充滿挑戰的經濟環境中，能夠實現我們今天在展望討論中提到的業績，這將有力地證明我們的投資組合具備應對這些挑戰的質量和實力。

There's no question, we create a lot of value in markets that have economic sensitivity, whether it's B&C or durables or auto. Auto, all last year was at recession levels. 80% below 2019 is not a good year for auto demand. And we managed to actually still do reasonably well in that business on the volume mix side. So I think we feel really good about the quality of the portfolio from a volume mix point of view and its ability to deliver innovation and growth through all kinds of platforms, not just big circular platform we've been talking about, but cellulosics has probably $200 million upside when we go forward. over the next 3, 4 years.

毫無疑問，我們在經濟敏感的市場中創造了巨大的價值，無論是生物和消費品、耐用品還是汽車。去年全年汽車市場都處於衰退水準。比2019年低80%對汽車需求來說不是一個好年份。而實際上，我們在汽車業務的產量組合方面仍然表現得相當不錯。因此，我認為，從產量組合的角度來看，我們對產品組合的品質感到非常滿意，並且它能夠透過各種平台（而不僅僅是我們一直在談論的大型循環平台）實現創新和成長。纖維素塑膠業務在未來3到4年內可能擁有2億美元的成長空間。

And then the interlayers business, as I discussed earlier, has a tremendous amount of growth. PPF is great. Coding add has a lot of sustainable introductions to the marketplace, semiconductor leverage we have in high-purity solvency. So growth innovation is very much there as the specialty business should have to deliver good results. Margin stability actually is on the spread side, quite good. When you look at the portfolio, how it combines together to deliver in a steady spreads at the favorable margin level. And we've demonstrated very good commercial discipline. So what you really got last year is a manufacturing recession in 1 quarter and a huge currency headwind for the year. And then some limitations on how much growth we're going to have with some one-off operational issues. So I don't think there's any lack of differentiation in this portfolio or quality of that. And I think as we get through this year and start delivering pretty significant growth next year, assuming we put this recession behind us, is going to be very attractive for owners.

正如我之前提到的，中間膜業務成長迅猛。 PPF 表現優異。 Coding Add 向市場推出了許多永續的產品，我們在高純度償付能力方面也擁有強大的半導體槓桿。因此，特種業務的成長創新能力非常強，足以帶來良好的業績。利潤率的穩定性其實體現在利差方面，相當不錯。看看我們的產品組合，你會發現它們如何結合在一起，在有利的利潤率水平上實現了穩定的利差。而且，我們展現了非常好的商業紀律。去年我們真正面臨的是，一個季度的製造業衰退和全年巨大的貨幣逆風。此外，一些一次性的營運問題也限制了我們的成長速度。所以，我認為我們的產品組合併不缺乏差異化，產品的品質也不差。我認為，隨著我們度過今年，並在明年開始實現相當顯著的成長（假設我們能夠擺脫經濟衰退），這將對股東非常有吸引力。

The next question comes from John Roberts with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰·羅伯茨。

You had an ethylene/propylene flex project for long view. Has that been delayed? And if you had that in place, would you have still shut down the cracker?

你們有一個乙烯/丙烯柔性項目，是著眼長遠的。這個項目被推遲了嗎？如果這個計畫已經實施，你們還會關閉裂解裝置嗎？

So we're not yet constructing that project. We are completing the licensing and the early engineering work around being able to pull the trigger on that project as soon as we feel it's appropriate. We have a lot of requests for capital across our portfolio back to valuation discussion that I just commented on. It's not just circular that has a lot of capital opportunities for very attractive returns on investment. Our whole specialty portfolio has those opportunities as well. And while certainly, the current economic challenges are there, we don't see a lack of growth opportunities across our portfolio on the specialty side. So those get priority call on capital relative to the ethylene to propylene investment. It's one that we will for sure do when it's at the right time, but we're going to have to be thoughtful about how we manage our overall CapEx budget.

所以我們還沒有動工建設這個計畫。我們正在完成許可和前期工程工作，以便在我們認為合適的時候盡快啟動專案。回到我剛才提到的估值討論，我們投資組合中有很多融資需求。不只是循環油氣專案擁有大量的融資機會，可以獲得非常誘人的投資回報。我們的整個特種油氣投資組合也擁有這樣的機會。雖然目前的經濟挑戰確實存在，但我們認為特種油氣投資組合中並不缺乏成長機會。因此，相對於乙烯制丙烯的投資，這些項目可以優先獲得融資。在適當的時機，我們肯定會投資乙烯制丙烯，但我們必須認真考慮如何管理我們的整體資本支出預算。

And to answer your question, if E to P was in place, we would not be -- we would not have left as cracker down. Remember, we had it down for maintenance. We just didn't bring it back up after we completed the planned maintenance. And we would certainly pin down for the maintenance in Q4, but would have been switching to E to P right now.

回答你的問題，如果E-P模式已經實施，我們就不會－我們也不會讓裂解廠停產。記住，我們當時停產是為了維護。只是在完成計劃維護後，我們沒有恢復運作。我們肯定會在第四季度確定維護時間，但現在應該已經切換到E-P模式了。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Two quick ones. First, on the renewables capacity, will that inventory build show up on your P&L? Or will it be separate? And can you give us a sense for the magnitude? And secondly, on the end market comments that you're hearing from customers, I guess it looks from your presentation is if the overall theme is the -- industrial recession driven by destocking to recalibrate, but underlying demand is pretty solid -- is pretty stable outside the construction markets. How confident are your customers on that? Or -- and when do you think they need to -- or -- and how much warning do you think you would have if they need to recalibrate?

簡單問兩個問題。首先，關於再生能源產能，庫存增加會反映在你們的損益表中嗎？還是會單獨列出？能否大致介紹一下其規模？其次，關於您從客戶那裡聽到的終端市場評論，我想從您的演示來看，如果總體主題是——由去庫存化重新調整推動的工業衰退，但潛在需求相當強勁——那麼在建築市場之外，需求相當穩定。您的客戶對此有多大信心？或者——您認為他們什麼時候需要——或者——如果他們需要重新調整，您認為您會提前多少時間發出警告？

So I'll let Willie take the first question. I'll take the end market.

所以我請威利回答第一個問題。我來回答終端市場的問題。

Sure. On the Kingsport methanolysis project, obviously, we've built as a supply chain. We already have the key raw materials and lease cycle materials as part of our inventory here at year-end as we're preparing for a startup next year. So you can think about there's no significant impact of transitioning from fossil fuel feedstocks to recycled content as we go from '22 to '23. As we think about our projects -- second U.S. project and the project in France, again, we could have different operating models in the regions that those are not significant working capital builds.

當然。在金斯波特甲醇分解計畫中，我們顯然已經建立了供應鏈。由於我們正在為明年的啟動做準備，我們年底的庫存中已經包含了關鍵原材料和租賃週期材料。因此，你可以想像一下，從2022年到2023年，從化石燃料原料過渡到再生材料不會產生重大影響。至於我們的項目——第二個美國項目和法國項目，我們可能會在不同地區採用不同的營運模式，而這些模式並不會顯著增加營運資本。

When it comes to your end market question, when you think about end market exposure in 3 buckets, right? The one that's most impacted by this sort of manufacturing recession is durables and building construction. The 40% down in durables, as we talked about earlier, 40% down in building construction in the fourth quarter in AFP. So those markets are being very heavily impacted. And that destocking relative to the retail data is pretty significant relative to end market demand, which is still quite weak. So there's that. We do think destocking by definition as in at some point. It's hard to say exactly when, but we've told you what we're assuming, and you can factor what you want to believe into the models.

說到您關於終端市場的問題，您從三個角度來考慮終端市場敞口，對嗎？受此類製造業衰退影響最大的是耐久財和建築業。正如我們之前提到的，耐久財下降了40%，法新社第四季建築業也下降了40%。所以這些市場受到了非常嚴重的影響。相對於終端市場需求仍然相當疲軟，零售數據中的去庫存現象相當顯著。所以就是這樣。我們確實認為去庫存會在某個時間點出現。很難說具體時間，但我們已經告訴了您我們的假設，您可以將您想要相信的因素納入模型中。

When it comes to auto, the auto demands are already at recession levels all last year, right? So that second bucket, which is a huge driver of profit for the industry as well as for Eastman, probably has limited downside and more upside as we go through this year, even though we are going into an economically or already in an economically challenged area where consumers have discretionary choices on where they want to spend money. So we do think that's going to, sort of, be stable and sort of modestly improve. And within that mix, I should have also said earlier, we are levered to the luxury market with all of our products because they're very high-value products that we're selling. And that part of the market is likely -- has held up better last year and certainly going to, I think, hold up better this year in sort of these economically -- sort of expensive times when it comes to interest rates.

說到汽車，去年全年的汽車需求已經處於衰退水平，對吧？所以，第二個領域，也是產業以及伊士曼利潤的巨大驅動力，今年的下行空間可能有限，上行空間更大，即使我們正進入一個經濟或已經面臨挑戰的領域，消費者可以自由選擇在哪裡花錢。所以我們確實認為，這種情況會比較穩定，並且略有改善。在這個組合中，我應該早點說，我們所有的產品都針對奢侈品市場，因為我們銷售的都是高價值產品。這部分市場去年可能表現較好，我認為，在今年這種經濟——利率相對較高的時期——表現肯定會更好。

And then the third bucket, which is about half of our revenue is what we call our stable markets. This is medical, consumables, ag, food, feed, all these sort of end markets are water treatment that are very stable. Now we saw quite a bit of destocking even in the stable markets in the fourth quarter across the entire company as people were trying to get rid of high-cost inventory, generate cash for themselves. So that was a big part of the headwind too less than a percent basis, but happening everywhere as part of the challenge. There, we see into that destocking playing out because their markets are stable. So there's not a lot of destocking they can actually do. So that starts to really help stabilize as we go through this quarter into second -- the overall revenue base across the company.

第三類市場，也就是我們所謂的穩定市場，大約占我們收入的一半。這些市場包括醫療、消費品、農業、食品、飼料，以及水處理等終端市場，這些市場都非常穩定。現在，即使在第四季的穩定市場中，我們也看到整個公司都在進行相當多的去庫存化，因為人們試圖清理高成本庫存，為自己創造現金。所以，這雖然低於一個百分比的基數，但作為挑戰的一部分，在各個地方都在發生。我們看到去庫存化正在發揮作用，因為他們的市場穩定。所以他們實際上能做的去庫存化並不多。因此，隨著我們進入第二季度，這開始真正有助於穩定整個公司的整體收入基礎。

Let's make the next question the last one, please.

請將下一個問題作為最後一個問題。

Of course, our final question today comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

當然，我們今天的最後一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

So Mark, on methanolysis, you mentioned your CapEx is up 10%, but you don't expect a huge change in the returns you expect. Are you passing on the increased cost to your customers? And also, the plastics are cyclical. And so you -- if you want to get steady returns there, are your customers willing to take the cyclicality of the plastics and volatility so that you can cap steady margins?

馬克，關於甲醇分解，您提到資本支出增加了10%，但您預計回報不會有太大變化。您會把增加的成本轉嫁給客戶嗎？而且，塑膠產業具有週期性。所以，如果您想獲得穩定的回報，您的客戶是否願意承受塑膠產業的週期性和波動性，以便您能夠保持穩定的利潤率？

Yes. So I think from a spread point of view, the way we're sort of contracting into the PET market is with our -- what we call our circular contracting model, going to provide steady spreads between the cost of feedstock and energy and the price of material. So from a spread point of view, we really expect to have quite good stability, I think Airgas company kind of model. Demand, of course, is still subject to end market demand. So when it comes to sort of the volume, there's always going to be some variability, but we're going into packaging and the consumables. So the variability in that volume on an annual basis year-over-year is pretty stable, right?

是的。所以我認為從價差的角度來看，我們進入PET市場的方式是採用我們所謂的循環承包模式，這將在原料和能源成本與材料價格之間提供穩定的價差。因此，從價差的角度來看，我們確實希望獲得相當好的穩定性，我認為這是一種類似Airgas公司的模式。當然，需求仍受終端市場需求的影響。因此，就產量而言，總是會有一些波動，但我們正在涉足包裝和耗材領域。因此，產量的年度年比波動相當穩定，對嗎？

So I don't have a lot of volume concerns there. When it comes to the specialty side of this circular platform, we're not changing the end market sort of structure in both demand or how we do pricing. We're just adding recycled content as another dimension of differentiation to Tritan and all the other copolyesters in the cosmetics everything elsewhere selling. So we'll still be sensitive to demand changes when it comes to the circular platform that we'll be capturing higher margins relative to what we currently realize in these products and growing total volume quite fast, right? One of the reasons we win in the marketplace is high-value growth, driving mix upgrade against such cost leverage, right? That is very true in good times, and this will lead to much more accelerated growth from these kind of products to fixed cost leverage.

所以我對銷量沒有太多擔憂。就這個循環平台的特種產品而言，我們不會改變終端市場的結構，無論是需求或定價方式。我們只是添加了再生成分，作為Tritan和其他所有共聚酯在化妝品和其他所有領域銷售產品之間的差異化的另一個維度。因此，在循環平台上，我們仍然會對需求變化保持敏感，我們將獲得比目前這些產品更高的利潤率，並且總銷量增長相當快，對吧？我們在市場上獲勝的原因之一是高價值成長，推動產品組合升級以應對成本槓桿，對吧？在經濟景氣時期，這一點尤其正確，這將導致這類產品的成長速度更快，固定成本槓桿也隨之增加。

But unfortunately, face downtimes like the last fourth quarter and the first quarter of this year where that mix is a headwind. But when you look at the upside in our stock, as you get through this, not just for circular, but for just market recovery, there's a huge mix upside for our company as you go into the back half of this year in '24 when you think recovery is coming, which we demonstrated coming out of 2020.

但不幸的是，像去年第四季和今年第一季這樣的低迷時期，這種組合構成了逆風。但當你看到我們股票的上漲空間時，你會發現，隨著我們度過這段時期，不僅僅是因為循環效益，而是因為市場復甦，當你進入2024年下半年，當你認為復甦即將到來時，我們公司將擁有巨大的組合上漲空間，我們在2020年已經證明了這一點。

Mark, the Airgas or the industrial gas model hasn't really worked in plastics. What gives you confidence that this would work this time? Is it because this is such a specialty product and the consumers want it or the customers want it that you can have that kind of contract structure?

馬克，Airgas 或工業氣體模式在塑膠領域並沒有真正奏效。是什麼讓您有信心這次會成功？是因為這是一個非常特別的產品，消費者或客戶想要它，所以你們才採用這種合約結構？

Yes. So as I said, in specialty, it's just our current model. But when it comes to the PET, that's where the industrial gas model concept applies. And yes, it's a unique offering, right? We're the only large-scale company on the planet, especially in North America and Europe, who's offering recycled content from hard recycled plastics. And when you get to the food grade industry, mechanical can't remotely meet their needs. And someone has to plug that gap if they're going to hit their targets, and we are way ahead of our competition in being able to provide that service.

是的。正如我所說，在特種領域，這只是我們目前的模式。但說到PET，工業氣體模型的概念就適用了。是的，這是一種獨特的產品，對吧？我們是全球唯一提供硬質再生塑膠再生材料的大型公司，尤其是在北美和歐洲。而到了食品級產業，機械設備根本無法滿足他們的需求。如果他們想要達到目標，就必須有人來填補這個空白，而我們在提供這項服務方面遠遠領先競爭對手。

And that's exactly what an Airgas company does to provide a service to convert a product into a highly needed input. And that's sort of where we're at today, and that's our confidence as we go forward into these 3 projects. And that's why we continue to maintain a discipline -- not building these kind of facilities unless we get these kind of contracts, because I'm not getting back into as you said, P.J., the traditional plastics business at high margin volatility, we just won't do that.

這正是Airgas公司所做的，他們提供服務，將產品轉化為急需的投入。這正是我們目前的處境，也是我們推動這三個計畫的信心所在。正因如此，我們才會繼續堅持原則——除非我們獲得這類合同，否則不會建造這類設施。因為正如P.J.你說的，我不會再回到利潤波動性高的傳統塑膠產業，我們不會這麼做。

Okay. Thanks again for joining us today. We really appreciate it. I hope you have a great day.

好的。再次感謝您今天加入我們。我們非常感激。祝您今天過得愉快。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的通話到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以掛斷電話了。