伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 Eastman Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加 2023 年第三季伊士曼電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。

I will now turn this call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把這通電話轉給伊士曼投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Jordan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations. Yesterday after market closed, we posted our third quarter 2023 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing. Our slides and the related prepared remarks are in the Investors section of our website, which is www.eastman.com.

謝謝你，喬丹。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。今天與我一起通話的是董事會主席兼執行長 Mark Costa； Willie McLain，執行副總裁兼財務長；以及投資者關係經理 Jake LaRoe。昨天收盤後，我們發布了 2023 年第三季財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件。我們的幻燈片和相關的準備好的評論都在我們網站的投資者部分，即www.eastman.com。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to our future expectations are or will be detailed in our third quarter 2023 financial results news release during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for full year 2022 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for third quarter 2023.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與我們未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在本次電話會議期間的 2023 年第三季度財務業績新聞稿、前面的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的 2022 年全年 10-K 表格和將於 2023 年第三季度提交的 10-Q 表格。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the third quarter 2023 financial results news release. As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we will now go straight into Q&A.

其次，本簡報中提到的收益不包括某些非核心和不尋常的項目。 2023 年第三季財務業績新聞稿中提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳以及其他相關揭露，包括對排除和調整項目的描述。由於我們昨晚已將幻燈片和隨附的準備好的發言稿發佈在我們的網站上，因此我們現在將直接進入問答環節。

Jordan, please let's start with our first question.

喬丹，請讓我們開始第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Our first question comes from David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank.

我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的大衛‧貝格萊特。

Mark, thanks for the comments on '24 in the prepared comments. Can you provide a little more color on the potential you think, for '24 earnings in this macro?

馬克，感謝您在準備好的評論中對‘24’的評論​​。您能否進一步闡述您認為的 24 年宏觀收益潛力？

Sure, David, and a great question. We're obviously spending a lot of time focusing on putting this year behind us and focusing how we recover and deliver a lot of earnings and growth next year. When you think about it and the way we built our forecast or, if you will, a scenario was to intentionally be somewhat neutral on where markets recover or don't recover or what oil prices or energy prices are going to do. So we want sort of a neutral case to focus first on what are the things that are more in control or math that deliver a better year next year than this year.

當然，大衛，這是一個很好的問題。顯然，我們花了很多時間專注於擺脫今年的困境，並專注於明年如何復甦並實現大量盈利和成長。當你思考這個問題以及我們制定預測的方式時，或者如果你願意的話，我們會有意對市場復甦或不復甦或石油價格或能源價格的走勢保持中立。因此，我們希望以一種中立的案例首先關注哪些事情更容易控製或計算，從而讓明年比今年更好。

And the biggest driver, of course, in the decline in earnings this year was volume and mix. And when you look at the extent of that across the portfolio, we're probably down about $450 million in volume and mix from a variable margin point of view, excluding capacity utilization. And then as we look at how that can recover next year, we sort of think of it in 3 buckets. The first is obviously a lack of destocking. There's a lot of conversation around that. And it was certainly a very significant element to our business.

當然，今年獲利下降的最大驅動因素是銷售和產品組合。當您查看整個投資組合的程度時，從可變利潤率的角度來看，我們的交易量和組合可能下降了約 4.5 億美元（不包括產能利用率）。然後，當我們展望明年如何復甦時，我們會從三個方面來考慮。首先顯然是去庫存不足。關於這一點有很多討論。這對我們的業務無疑是非常重要的因素。

And we generally think destocking was probably about 40% of the decline in volume this year. But let's be conservative and we'll call that sort of 1/3 comes back next year from destocking. So $150 million there on variable margin. And that's just a lack of destocking. So that doesn't include restocking. It doesn't include any markets getting better.

我們普遍認為，去庫存化大概佔今年庫存下降的40%左右。但保守一點，我們把這種 1/3 的回報稱為明年通過去庫存實現的。因此，浮動保證金為 1.5 億美元。這只是缺乏去庫存的表現。所以這不包括補貨。它不包括任何正在好轉的市場。

The second element is innovation. We are very excited about our innovation portfolio. It's been the center of our growth story as a company. And the biggest element, of course, will be the Kingsport methanolysis plant coming online, delivering an incremental $75 million in EBITDA to the -- to next year relative to this year. And that's all in with cost and revenue and margins considered. So that's pretty considerable. So you've got that on top of the lack of destocking.

第二個要素是創新。我們對我們的創新組合感到非常興奮。這是我們公司成長故事的核心。當然，最大的因素是金斯波特甲醇分解工廠的投產，與今年相比，明年的 EBITDA 將增加 7,500 萬美元。這一切都要考慮成本、收入和利潤。這是相當可觀的。因此，除了缺乏去庫存之外，你還面臨這個問題。

And then you've got innovation that's happening across our portfolio. It's not just Kingsport methanolysis. We've had great success with premium interlayers delivering a lot of value with the growth in the automotive market and extreme leverage of 3.5x material per car in EVs versus ICE cars. So that's a great business, and we'll continue to deliver above-market growth. We've got the Aventa products we've been telling you about, where we've had great success adoptions and straws and some brands going national as well as now making great progress in our polystyrene replacement for protein packaging and food packaging, et cetera, and you're going to see some real nice growth out of that business.

然後你會看到我們的產品組合中正在發生的創新。這不僅僅是金斯波特甲醇分解。我們在優質中間膜方面取得了巨大成功，隨著汽車市場的成長，電動車與內燃機汽車相比，每輛電動車的材料使用量增加了 3.5 倍，創造了巨大的價值。這是一項偉大的業務，我們將繼續實現高於市場的成長。我們擁有一直向您介紹的 Aventa 產品，我們在收養和吸管方面取得了巨大成功，一些品牌正在全國推廣，同時我們在使用聚苯乙烯替代蛋白質包裝和食品包裝等方面也取得了巨大進展，您將會看到該業務取得真正的良好增長。

The Naia textile business has been great this year, and will continue. Tetrashield, picking up more business, and food cans and we're starting to move into the beverage side. So there's a lot of growth happening throughout the portfolio through innovation even in a flat market. And we're going to see more benefit really next year when you're in a more stable market situation and people are focusing on new launches.

今年，Naia 紡織業務表現良好，並將繼續保持良好勢頭。 Tetrashield 的業務不斷增加，食品罐頭業務也不斷增加，我們開始進軍飲料領域。因此，即使在平穩的市場中，整個投資組合也會透過創新實現大幅成長。明年，當市場情況更加穩定、人們將注意力集中在新產品的推出時，我們將看到更多的好處。

The third element, of course, is the markets. And as you saw in our guidance, we're being pretty cautious about where the markets might go. I think there's lots of debate around markets could recover, markets could go down. I think it's fair to say none of us really know. But I think it's reasonable to expect that our stable markets will probably stabilize because the end-market demand there is sort of not as discretionary. So pharma, personal care, packaging for food, those kind of markets are all going to stabilize, medical, and probably have some modest growth when you look at those dynamics.

第三個要素當然是市場。正如您在我們的指南中看到的，我們對市場走向非常謹慎。我認為關於市場可能復甦、市場可能下跌的爭論很多。我想可以公平地說，我們誰也不知道。但我認為，我們有理由預期，我們穩定的市場可能會穩定下來，因為那裡的終端市場需求不那麼隨意。因此，從動態來看，製藥、個人護理、食品包裝等市場都將趨於穩定，醫療市場也可能會有一些適度的成長。

Automotive is expected to grow, and we think that's a reasonable assumption. Building construction, we think, is flat to down a little bit. So when you put all this together, you've got some additional volume growth out of that on top of those numbers from destocking and Kingsport methanolysis. So considerable value there.

汽車產業預計會成長，我們認為這是一個合理的假設。我們認為，建築施工將保持平穩或略有下降。因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，除了來自去庫存和金斯波特甲醇分解的數字之外，你還會獲得一些額外的銷售成長。因此其價值相當可觀。

The second part is asset utilization. So we've been extremely aggressive in managing our assets and pulling the utilization rates down to free up cash. We saw great success in over $500 million of cash generated in the third quarter by the actions we took. Unfortunately, it comes with an accounting headwind. It's not a cash headwind, but you take a $75 million utilization headwind hit in the third quarter alone for that, or $75 million really on a full year basis when you think about the tailwind for next year. So you got to add that back if volumes are flat, that comes back.

第二部分是資產利用率。因此，我們非常積極地管理資產並降低利用率以釋放現金。我們採取的行動在第三季創造了超過 5 億美元的現金，並取得了巨大的成功。不幸的是，它面臨著會計方面的阻力。這不是現金方面的逆風，但僅在第三季度，利用率就會受到 7,500 萬美元的逆風打擊，如果考慮到明年的順風，全年利用率就會受到 7,500 萬美元的逆風打擊。因此，如果交易量持平，那麼就必須將其加回。

Obviously, there's actions we're taking to keep our cost structure flat. So all that revenue growth we're talking about above -- in the volume side of things flows straight to the bottom line. So the incremental margins on the recovery are going to be quite strong. So all that creates a good situation.

顯然，我們正在採取措施保持成本結構穩定。因此，我們上面討論的所有收入成長——從數量上來說，都直接影響到利潤。因此，復甦的增量幅度將會相當強勁。所有這些都創造了良好的局面。

Offsetting that could be some Specialty pricing starting to moderate in a few places. We still have a lot of raw material in inventory that is lower and still needs to flow through. We're about 50% FIFO in our company. So you're going to see some benefits of that flowing through into next year that will sort of offset Specialty pricing. So we don't really see raw materials as a tailwind, but we also don't really see it as much of a headwind.

與此相抵消的可能是一些地方的一些特色商品定價開始緩和。我們的庫存中仍有大量原材料處於較低水平，仍需要流通。我們公司大約有 50% 採用先進先出法。因此，您將看到這種趨勢在明年將帶來一些好處，從而抵消專業定價的影響。因此，我們實際上並不認為原料是順風，但我們實際上也不認為它是逆風。

So all those factors put together delivers quite a bit of improvement in earnings and earnings from our operating -- in the cash side as well. So we're pretty excited about focusing on all these actions that we can control in this uncertainty and delivering success for our owners.

因此，所有這些因素加在一起，使我們的經營收益和現金收益都有了相當大的提高。因此，我們非常高興能夠專注於我們在這種不確定性中可以控制的所有這些行動，並為我們的所有者帶來成功。

And just lastly, in the areas we are still seeing destocking like crop protection, when do you think it will end or how long do you think it will persist?

最後，在作物保護等我們仍然看到去庫存的領域，您認為這種情況何時會結束，或者您認為這種情況會持續多久？

On the ag market, which is more than crop protection, but a number of different products, obviously, the destocking didn't start until the second quarter of this year. Very different timing stories, like consumer durables or building construction started aggressively in the fourth quarter of last year, but ag didn't start until the second quarter. So the destocking started, it got more aggressive in the second -- from the second to the third quarter and it continues into the fourth quarter.

農業市場不僅涉及農作物保護產品，還涉及多種不同的產品，顯然，去庫存化直到今年第二季才開始。時機故事截然不同，例如耐用消費品或建築業在去年第四季開始強勁成長，但農業直到第二季才開始成長。因此，去庫存開始了，並且在第二季度變得更加激進——從第二季度到第三季度，並持續到第四季度。

We do think it will be played out by the end of the fourth quarter from what our customers are telling us as they start looking to the next planting season. But normally, you have a build in inventory, it's starting in the fourth quarter and through the first quarter for the planting season.

根據我們的客戶在開始展望下一個種植季節時告訴我們的情況，我們確實認為這將在第四季度末顯現出來。但通常情況下，庫存的建立是從第四季開始，一直持續到種植季節的第一季。

This year, we're going to see destocking through the fourth quarter and then a ramp-up of building inventory in the first quarter of next year. So that's part of that headwind relative to what is normal for a fourth quarter is that delta between building versus pretty aggressive destocking.

今年，我們將在第四季度看到庫存減少，然後在明年第一季看到庫存增加。因此，與第四季的正常情況相比，逆風的部分原因在於庫存建設與大幅去庫存之間的差異。

Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

And I did appreciate the video on methanolysis. So thanks for giving us the length there. Mark, Advanced Materials has had a difficult '23 on the backs of a difficult '22, where you're now expecting '23 to come in below $400 million of EBIT. I took a look back the last time that happened that you were below $400 million of you was back in 2014. So what -- I know it's been a difficult couple of years, what sort of confidence might you have that, that business can get to $500 million or better in 2024?

我確實很欣賞有關甲醇分解的影片。感謝您提供詳細資訊。馬克，先進材料公司在經歷了 2022 年的艱難之後，2023 年也經歷了一段艱難的時期，您現在預計 2023 年的息稅前利潤將低於 4 億美元。我回顧了一下，上次你們的營業額低於 4 億美元還是在 2014 年。我知道這幾年過得很艱難，你們對 2024 年營業額能達到 5 億美元甚至更高有什麼信心呢？

Yes. So Frank, we feel very good about all that what you just said in getting this business to come back considerably from where it is now. The bridge I just laid out at the corporate level is very true at the AM level and all of those elements. So if you think about this year, just this context before we get to next year, the extremity of the demand decline was more than anything we've ever seen before. So we've seen difficult demand environments in '09, in 2020. But those were over 3 quarters in '09 and 2 quarters in 2020. We're now in our fifth quarter of low demand and, in some applications, continued destocking.

是的。所以弗蘭克，我們對你剛才所說的一切感到非常高興，因為這能讓這項業務從現在的水平大幅回升。我剛才在公司層級搭建的橋樑在 AM 層面和所有這些要素上都是非常真實的。因此，如果你想想今年，在進入明年之前，需求下降的程度將超過我們以前見過的任何情況。因此，我們在 2009 年和 2020 年看到了艱難的需求環境。但這在 2009 年持續了三個季度，在 2020 年持續了兩個季度。現在我們正處於需求低迷的第五季度，並且在某些應用領域，庫存仍在繼續減少。

So this is something we've never really seen before. But it is all demand-related, and it's a lot of destocking that -- where people got out of control in building inventory during the supply chain crisis. And some of the markets that we're in have very long supply chains. When you think about consumer durables, where they're making the polymers here, having to ship it all in China, go through multiple steps to get an appliance or a TV or something made, and then shipping it back to the U.S. and Europe, you've got 6 to 10 steps. It's a long supply chain to deplete. And there's such a significant step down in demand that's as bad as 2009 when you think about consumer durables or housing for that matter.

這是我們以前從未見過的。但這一切都與需求有關，而且大量的去庫存化——在供應鏈危機期間，人們失去了對庫存建立的控制。我們所處的一些市場的供應鏈非常長。對於耐用消費品來說，他們在這裡生產聚合物，然後將其全部運送到中國，經過多個步驟才能製造電器、電視或其他東西，然後再運回美國和歐洲，總共需要 6 到 10 個步驟。這是一個很長的供應鏈，很快就會耗盡。如果你考慮耐用消費品或住房，那麼需求下降幅度如此之大，與 2009 年一樣糟糕。

And so the good news is we can see some markets bottoming out and recovering really well. So durables is down 40% in the fourth quarter of last year. It was even worse in the first quarter, came back 30% in the second quarter relative to the first, another 15% back in the third quarter.

好消息是，我們可以看到一些市場觸底並復甦良好。去年第四季耐用品銷量下降了 40%。第一季情況更糟，第二季較第一季回落30%，第三季又回落15%。

Now it's going to be a little softer in the fourth quarter because of normal seasonality of activity in what customers do. But you can see that, that -- the bottom of that market was the first quarter. And it's certainly in better shape as the destocking has definitely played out, we think, at the end of the third quarter.

由於客戶活動的正常季節性，第四季的銷售情況將會稍微疲軟。但你可以看到，該市場的底部是第一季。而且我們認為，隨著第三季末去庫存的實施，情況肯定會有所改善。

We have some other markets where the destocking is also still pretty extensive, like medical and packaging. It didn't start like ag until the second quarter of this year, and it's finishing out through this quarter as we can see it. So there's different timing and different levels of drop across the segment when it comes to Specialty Plastics, but we are pretty confident that the destocking part will be over by the end of this year. And when you think about that $450 million of variable margin down for volume and mix, about half of that is in the AM segment. So you can start seeing how that on the destocking part comes back.

我們還有一些其他市場的去庫存化程度仍然相當廣泛，例如醫療和包裝市場。直到今年第二季度，這種趨勢才開始出現，正如我們所見，這種趨勢將在本季結束。因此，就特種塑膠而言，各領域的下降時間和幅度各不相同，但我們非常有信心，到今年年底，去庫存階段將結束。當您考慮到因銷售和產品組合而產生的 4.5 億美元可變保證金下降時，其中約有一半是在 AM 領域。因此，您可以開始看到去庫存部分是如何恢復的。

That's just on the destocking part. Then you've got the $75 million of EBITDA coming from the methanolysis to add back to next year on top of this year. Remember, only $50 million of that is going to show up in AM and the other $25 million in Other. And then you've got a lot of these stable markets that are going to have some amount of very modest growth in the sort of packaging, medical. All we're going through this year is a decline in demand in medical. Surgeries are steady enough. It's just a lot of destocking, but it's very high value and painful where you get past it.

這只是關於去庫存的部分。然後你就可以從甲醇分解中獲得 7500 萬美元的 EBITDA，並將其添加到今年的基礎上，明年再增加。請記住，其中只有 5000 萬美元會出現在 AM 中，另外 2500 萬美元會出現在其他中。然後你會發現很多穩定的市場在包裝、醫療等領域都會出現一定程度的溫和成長。我們今年經歷的只是醫療需求的下降。手術足夠穩定。這只是大量的去庫存，但它的價值非常高，而且當你經歷它時會很痛苦。

So we feel good about that. About $40 million of the $75 million of the asset utilization headwind from inventory management comes back as a tailwind. $35 million of FX is a headwind this year. I don't know where currency will go next year, so that could be up or down, but it's a significant headwind this year when you think about looking at the total decline.

因此我們對此感到很高興。庫存管理為資產利用率帶來的 7,500 萬美元逆風中，約有 4,000 萬美元成為順風。今年，3500 萬美元的外匯交易是一個阻力。我不知道明年貨幣會走向何方，所以可能會上漲或下跌，但從整體跌幅來看，今年的貨幣走勢是一個重大阻力。

So you've got the destocking coming off. You got the markets. You have the utilization tailwind, Kingsport, you got innovation. You got the auto market, which we expect to continue to grow and a lot of the innovation that's happening in there.

因此，去庫存化已經開始。你掌握了市場。金斯波特，你們擁有利用率的順風，你們擁有創新。我們預計汽車市場將持續成長，並且會出現大量創新。

There's a lot of innovation throughout the portfolio in AM that will create our growth once the market stabilizes and customers are confident doing new launches. So we feel great, and the incremental margins will be impressive because we're going to keep the cost structure flat.

一旦市場穩定下來並且客戶對新產品的推出充滿信心，AM 的產品組合中就會出現大量創新，這將促進我們的成長。所以我們感覺很棒，而且增量利潤將會令人印象深刻，因為我們將保持成本結構穩定。

If I could follow up on the asset utilization. Just a clarification. In the appendix, the updated number on the headwind is $100 million on the lower asset utilization, it's first half versus second half versus the prior $75 million. And you're expecting a $75 million benefit in '24. Shouldn't we be expecting $100 million benefit in '24 on asset utilization if the headwind for '23 is higher? I mean, I wouldn't assume -- are you assuming that you're going to run at lower asset utilization as we start 2024?

我是否可以跟進資產利用情況。只是澄清一下。在附錄中，逆風的更新數字是資產利用率較低造成的 1 億美元，這是上半年相對於下半年相對於之前的 7,500 萬美元的差距。你預計 24 年的收益為 7500 萬美元。如果 23 年的逆風更大，我們不應該預期 24 年資產利用率將帶來 1 億美元的收益嗎？我的意思是，我不會假設——您是否假設我們在 2024 年開始時會以較低的資產利用率運行？

Frank, this is Willie. So you've got it correct on the first half, second half, that increased from $75 million to $100 million. And sequentially, as Mark has highlighted, it was a $75 million headwind to Q2. With that momentum, we would expect it to improve quite a bit as we go from Q3 to Q4. But the full year, obviously, you're taking the reference '22 and that doesn't come into effect as you look '23 to '24. So $75 million is a reasonable estimate. It may be a little bit higher. But right now, $75 million is close enough.

法蘭克，這是威利。所以你說的對，上半年和下半年的金額從 7,500 萬美元增加到了 1 億美元。正如馬克所強調的，這對第二季度造成了 7500 萬美元的不利影響。憑藉這一勢頭，我們預計從第三季到第四季度，情況將會有大幅改善。但就全年而言，顯然您採用的是 22 年作為參考，而當您展望 23 年至 24 年時，這並不會生效。因此 7500 萬美元是一個合理的估計。可能稍微高一點。但目前，7500萬美元已經足夠了。

Frank, part of it is we built a little inventory in the first quarter. And so you got to offset that to the $100 million because that's the first half, second half. So $75 million implies we're running our assets in a similar manner next year and get that tailwind.

弗蘭克，部分原因是我們在第一季建立了一些庫存。所以你必須用 1 億美元來抵消，因為這是上半年，也是下半年。因此，7500 萬美元意味著我們明年將以類似的方式運作我們的資產並獲得順風。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Mark, your prepared comments talked about the potential for some state or federal incentives for the U.S. methanolysis plant? What's the sort of order of magnitude and what might be available and when will you know?

馬克，您準備好的評論是否談到了美國甲醇分解工廠可能受到一些州或聯邦政府的激勵？數量級是什麼樣的？可能有哪些可用資源？什麼時候可以知道？

So yes, the Inflation Reduction Act is a great program for investing and inspiring sustainable investments, and we certainly see several of our projects that we're doing available for credit. When it comes to the second methanolysis plant here in the U.S., the one that we're doing with the Pepsi baseload, that funding could be in -- about $350 million of capital is what's in the application. That doesn't mean that's what we're going to get. That's what we're asking for.

所以是的，《通貨膨脹削減法案》是一項投資和激勵永續投資的偉大計劃，而且我們確實看到我們正在進行的幾個項目可以獲得信貸。對於我們利用百事可樂基載能源在美國建造的第二家甲醇分解工廠，申請資金可能為 3.5 億美元。但這並不意味著我們將會得到這樣的結果。這正是我們所要求的。

And so the good news is we've been through a couple of rounds now, and we continue to be considered for that program. It's a very competitive process. There's also some tax credits that we're pursuing as well. And we should have insight on what they choose to get all of us out of our requests in the first quarter of next year is what we've been told.

好消息是我們已經經歷了幾輪，並且我們繼續被考慮加入該計劃。這是一個競爭非常激烈的過程。我們也正在爭取一些稅收抵免。我們應該了解他們選擇在明年第一季為我們所有人提出什麼要求，而這就是我們所知道的。

But you never know, it's a government process. Who knows how the timing will work. But it's significant, it's a considerable help. We're also pursuing additional incentives in Europe with our project there in France, not at that scale, but some additional incentives.

但你永遠不知道，這是政府程序。誰知道時間會如何安排。但它意義重大，幫助很大。我們也透過在法國的計畫在歐洲尋求額外的激勵措施，雖然規模不大，但也有一些額外的激勵措施。

Okay. And could you just talk about the sale of the plant assets to INEOS? Is that something that you've been working on for a long time? Or is this something that just sort of came up this year? And is there anything else like that, that's being contemplated?

好的。能談談向 INEOS 出售工廠資產的情況嗎？這是您長期致力於的事情嗎？還是這是今年才出現的事？還有什麼類似的事情正在考慮中嗎？

Thanks for the question. And obviously, we've had an ongoing relationship with INEOS Acetyls, and through their acquisition of the BP assets for 10 years now. So I would say, it's just through that ongoing partnership that we've had at the Texas City site. As we think about longer term in both increasing the percentage of Eastman at Specialty as well as the highest and best use, INEOS is the best owner for that. And also, as we think about strategically feedstocks for our Advanced Materials segment long term.

謝謝你的提問。顯然，我們與 INEOS Acetyls 一直保持著合作關係，並且透過他們收購 BP 資產已有 10 年了。所以我想說，這只是透過我們在德州城工廠的持續合作實現的。從長遠來看，我們既要增加 Eastman 在 Specialty 的份額，又要實現最高和最佳的利用率，那麼 INEOS 就是最佳所有者。此外，我們也長期考慮先進材料部門的策略原料。

So all in all, all those factors came into play. And the team did a great job here, and we expect to close that here in Q4. And that provides about $400 million of cash, and we expect to use that to paydown debt here in the near term and for it to be basically immediately accretive. Right now, I would say there's no other items like this in the pipeline. We're always evaluating the portfolio, but nothing imminent.

總而言之，所有這些因素都發揮了作用。團隊在這裡做得很好，我們預計將在第四季度完成這項工作。這提供了約 4 億美元的現金，我們預計將用它來在短期內償還債務，並使其基本上立即增值。目前，我想說的是，目前還沒有其他類似的項目正在籌備中。我們一直在評估投資組合，但沒有立即採取行動。

Our next question comes from Patrick Cunningham of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Patrick Cunningham。

You hold your 2024 CapEx guide relatively flat with this year. I'm curious what this means for your additional recycling facilities. Do you expect any meaningful CapEx to be deployed towards site construction next year? Or -- and is there any sort of updated time line on site selection for the second facility?

您的 2024 年資本支出指南與今年相比保持相對穩定。我很好奇這對您的額外回收設施意味著什麼。您是否預計明年會有任何有意義的資本支出用於場地建設？或者—第二個設施的選址是否有任何更新的時間表？

Yes. I would -- again, 2024, we expect it to be similar to slightly below -- our choices on CapEx will be influenced by the external environment. As Mark has highlighted, we're pretty neutral on the external environment. And we can ramp that up or take it down as needed. And I think we've demonstrated that discipline over time. We are committed to beginning construction for the France project as well as the second U.S. project, as we just discussed. We expect to start construction probably in that middle of the year time frame.

是的。我想——再說一次，我們預計 2024 年的水平將與此類似或略低——我們對資本支出的選擇將受到外部環境的影響。正如馬克所強調的，我們對外在環境持中立態度。我們可以根據需要增加或減少它。我認為我們已經隨著時間的推移證明了這種紀律。正如我們剛才討論的那樣，我們致力於開始法國計畫以及第二個美國計畫的建設。我們預計大概會在年中開始施工。

Also, we have some other specialty growth investments within the year, and we're waiting on the macro environment to ultimately set the pace of those. So I think what you're seeing and hearing from us is we're going to be disciplined. We're finishing the year strong with the cash flows that we just talked about from the divestiture. Also, we expect to have about $250 million of free cash flow here in Q4. So we're positioning ourselves to be disciplined on capital allocation, which will be a mix of organic growth as well as share repurchases as we look into 2024.

此外，我們今年還有一些其他專業成長投資，我們正在等待宏觀環境最終確定這些投資的步伐。所以我認為，你們從我們這裡看到和聽到的是，我們將受到紀律處分。我們剛剛談到的資產剝離帶來的現金流讓我們今年的業績表現強勁。此外，我們預計第四季的自由現金流約為 2.5 億美元。因此，我們將嚴格控制資本配置，並展望 2024 年，資本配置將結合有機成長和股票回購。

We feel good about our organic growth strategy. We think that kind of growth clearly creates a lot of shareholder value with great returns on capital. It's unfortunate the macro environment took a turn on us just as we were launching into the circular programs, and a lot of other specialty growth. But as we've talked about with our view of '24 and the expectation that markets will normalize as you go into '25 and '26, we believe earnings and our cash will come back significantly as we move forward.

我們對我們的有機成長策略感到滿意。我們認為，這種成長顯然會創造大量股東價值並帶來豐厚的資本回報。不幸的是，就在我們啟動循環計畫和許多其他專業成長項目時，宏觀環境發生了轉變。但正如我們在談到對 24 年的看法以及對進入 25 年和 26 年時市場將恢復正常的預期時所說的那樣，我們相信，隨著我們前進，收益和現金將大幅回升。

You got to remember this year, a lot of our headwind in earnings to '22 is noncash. $110 million of pension and $75 million of asset utilization to generate cash. So when we're just looking at earnings, a lot of it is a noncash hit relative to '22. So we feel very good about our cash earnings and how we're doing in this environment as well as how we look forward to the future.

你必須記住，今年，我們 22 年獲利面臨的許多阻力都是非現金的。 1.1 億美元的退休金和 7,500 萬美元的資產利用來產生現金。因此，當我們只看收益時，其中許多都是相對於 22 年而言的非現金衝擊。因此，我們對我們的現金收入、我們在這種環境下的表現以及我們對未來的展望感到非常滿意。

And maybe just to build on that, Mark, on the cash. As we think about 2024 cash, as Mark has highlighted, our baseline is starting at approximately $1.4 billion of operating cash flow. That's through the combination of higher cash earnings, comp at roughly $250 million. We always assume working capital is flat, so that would be a reduction of about $100 million year-over-year. And then we've got higher cash taxes, which also includes some of the taxes in the Texas City divestiture.

馬克，也許只是為了在此基礎上再增加一些現金。正如馬克所強調的，當我們考慮 2024 年的現金時，我們的基準是從約 14 億美元的營運現金流開始的。這是透過增加現金收益來實現的，約 2.5 億美元。我們始終假設營運資本保持不變，因此與去年同期相比，這將減少約 1 億美元。然後我們還要繳更高的現金稅，其中還包括德州城資產剝離的部分稅。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then I appreciate that the sort of forward outlook doesn't have any restocking expectations embedded. But based on your conversations with customers coming out of it, destocking, do any end markets have precariously thin inventories? Or do you get the sense that this has just been a trimming of safety stocks built over the last couple of years?

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後我很欣賞這種前瞻性的展望，它不包含任何補貨預期。但是根據您與客戶的對話，去庫存化之後，是否有任何終端市場庫存處於危險的低點？或者您覺得這只是對過去幾年建立的安全庫存的削減？

No, it's definitely both. There's definitely safety stocks that were built up in supply chain crisis more than customers were sharing with us. And so the -- hence, the sort of destocking we're seeing this year. But we're seeing signs where suddenly we get an order from a customer, some of our big customers where they've brought inventory down so low, they can't actually make product and they did need urgent shipments sent to them. So you're starting to see sort of people hitting bottom, which is encouraging. When you look at all the data we put together here around destocking in the underlying markets, you definitely can see that we're turning in the back half of this year where the destocking has played out.

不，肯定是兩者兼而有之。供應鏈危機中累積的安全庫存肯定比客戶與我們分享的更多。因此，我們今年就看到了這種去庫存現象。但我們突然看到一些跡象，我們突然收到客戶的訂單，我們的一些大客戶的庫存已經降到很低，他們實際上無法生產產品，他們確實需要緊急發貨。所以你開始看到人們觸底，這是令人鼓舞的。當您查看我們在此收集的有關基礎市場去庫存的所有數據時，您肯定可以看到，我們正處於今年下半年去庫存工作的階段。

As you look at next year, when you get into this question of restocking, we wanted to build a really conservative view of how it could perform next year because the macro economy, frankly, is so uncertain. So we don't have any restocking in there. But it's reasonable to expect that some restocking is going to have to happen with some of these customers if the markets start to stabilize and grow at all.

展望明年，當談到補充庫存的問題時，我們希望對明年的表現建立一個非常保守的看法，因為坦白說，宏觀經濟非常不確定。所以我們那裡沒有任何補貨。但如果市場開始穩定並有所成長，那麼我們有理由預期部分客戶將不得不進行補貨。

And so that will happen, that would be upside to sort of how we look at next year. It's certainly going to happen in ag, as I think about it. That's one place we know for sure, it's better we build an inventory curve.

如果這種情況發生，那對我們展望明年將會有一個好處。我認為，這肯定會在農業中發生。這是我們確信的一個地方，我們最好建立一條庫存曲線。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

How much did the methanolysis plant in Kingsport cost?

金斯波特的甲醇分解廠造價是多少？

So Jeff, on the methanolysis in Kingsport, I think as we've highlighted earlier this year, we had a [CapEx] (added by company after the call) range of $700 million to $800 million as we started the year. And we went to the higher end of that estimate. We've been able to manage the increase for the Kingsport methanolysis within that disciplined budget that we've been able to demonstrate through the year. That's how I would summarize that.

傑夫，關於金斯波特的甲醇分解，我認為正如我們今年早些時候強調的那樣，我們年初的資本支出（公司在電話會議後增加）範圍為 7 億至 8 億美元。我們達到了該估計值的較高值。我們已經能夠在全年所證明的嚴格預算範圍內管理金斯波特甲醇分解的成長。這就是我的總結。

We don't disclose specific project capital for competitive reasons.

基於競爭原因，我們不會揭露具體的專案資本。

The additional thing that I would continue to highlight, Jeff, is as we think about $450 million of EBITDA, also the fact that we're going to be generating $75 million of EBITDA on the first plant here from a year-over-year basis in 2024, I think that demonstrates that velocity of EBITDA. And we think that, that gets to $150 million by the end of [2025] (corrected by company after the call). That sets us up well for strong returns on this investment.

傑夫，我想繼續強調的另一件事是，當我們考慮 4.5 億美元的 EBITDA 時，同時我們也將在 2024 年為這裡的第一家工廠創造 7500 萬美元的 EBITDA，我認為這證明了 EBITDA 的速度。我們認為，到 [2025] 年底，這一數字將達到 1.5 億美元（電話會議後公司進行了更正）。這為我們獲得豐厚的投資回報奠定了基礎。

So my memory is that you had planned to expand your Tritan capacity in Kingsport with the building of methanolysis plant but chose not to do that. In your Normandy...

我記得您曾計劃在金斯波特建造甲醇分解工廠來擴大 Tritan 產能，但後來選擇不這樣做。在你的諾曼第…

No, we didn't choose to -- sorry, go ahead. Finish your question. I thought you're done. I'm sorry, go ahead, Jeff.

不，我們沒有選擇——抱歉，請繼續。完成你的問題。我以為你已經完成了。對不起，請說吧，傑夫。

Yes. In the Normandy plant, I thought that there was also a Tritan component there as well. Since you didn't build the Tritan -- the extra Tritan capacity in the United States, are you still going to build the Tritan capacity in Normandy in that I would think that Tritan would be more favorably made in the United States. That is -- are you going to scale back whatever it is that you thought you were going to build in Normandy given the way that economic conditions have evolved?

是的。我認為諾曼第工廠也有 Tritan 組件。既然你們沒有在美國建造 Tritan——額外的 Tritan 產能，你們是否仍將在諾曼底建造 Tritan 產能，因為我認為 Tritan 在美國生產會更受歡迎。也就是說，考慮到經濟狀況的發展，您是否會縮減您計劃在諾曼第建造的項目？

So yes, let me clarify a couple of points there, Jeff. First, with the Kingsport methanolysis plant and the Tritan expansion that we intend to do here at Kingsport, we're still doing it. Right?

是的，傑夫，讓我澄清幾點。首先，我們計劃在金斯波特進行金斯波特甲醇分解工廠和 Tritan 擴建，目前仍在進行中。正確的？

We've just pushed the construction time line of that plant out to better align with the macro economy. So our intention here is to still have 85,000 tons of capacity being brought online of additional Tritan capability. It's just going to come online more in '25 than in '24 because the durable market, where a lot of that Tritan is sold, is obviously down.

我們剛剛推遲了該工廠的建設時間表，以更好地適應宏觀經濟。因此，我們的目的是仍保持 85,000 噸產能，並上線額外的 Tritan 產能。只不過 2025 年的銷售量會比 2024 年更多，因為耐用品市場（Tritan 的主要銷售市場）明顯低迷。

So there's no change in our strategy whatsoever, it's just an adjustment of timing. And that's part of what Willie was getting at and sort of how we adjusted our spend rate on capital this year to make room for the higher cost of finishing methanolysis by pushing that capital on the Tritan project out into the next year. And so that's what we've done here. So no changes at all in how we think about the value creation from the first investment. It's just a shift a little bit in timing in the short term.

所以我們的策略沒有任何改變，只是時間上的調整。這就是威利想要表達的部分意思，也是我們如何調整今年的資本支出率，將 Tritan 計畫的資本推遲到明年，為完成甲醇分解的更高成本騰出空間。這就是我們在這裡所做的。因此，我們對首次投資所創造的價值的看法並沒有任何改變。這只是短期內時間上的一點轉變。

The good news around our assets in Tennessee, is they're flexible, right? We can swing our Tritan lines between Tritan and making copolyester. We can make PET. We can assign that recycled content to whatever products we want across our integrated system. So that allows us to monetize the value of the recycled content as quickly as we can make it as we ramp up the facility. So that's not going to be hindered by the macroeconomic environment in durables.

我們在田納西州的資產的好消息是它們很靈活，對嗎？我們可以在 Tritan 和共聚酯生產之間轉換我們的 Tritan 生產線。我們可以生產 PET。我們可以將回收的內容分配給我們整合系統中想要的任何產品。這樣，隨著我們擴大設施規模，我們就可以盡快將回收材料的價值貨幣化。因此耐用品的宏觀經濟環境不會阻礙其發展。

Because there's plenty of packaging out there that we can make both in our copolyester applications, like our shrink or in some PET. So we'll be monetizing the full value of all the DMT as fast as we can make it, and writing -- and driving that utilization rate up as fast as we possibly can.

因為我們可以用共聚酯應用（例如收縮膜）或一些 PET 來製作大量的包裝。因此，我們將盡快將所有 DMT 的全部價值貨幣化，並儘快提高利用率。

And then as higher-value markets like Tritan come back, we'll shift the mix in how we sign the recycled content to the higher-value markets. So we got great flexibility that's created a huge amount of value and mix upgrade over the last decade as we grew Tritan on the same assets that once made PET over a decade ago, and we can take advantage of that now.

然後，隨著 Tritan 等高價值市場的回歸，我們將改變回收材料簽署方式，以適應高價值市場。因此，我們獲得了極大的靈活性，在過去十年中，我們利用十多年前生產 PET 的相同資產來發展 Tritan，創造了巨大的價值並實現了產品組合升級，現在我們可以利用這一點。

In regards to the French plant, we're not changing anything there either. So the design of that plant is to have 2 polymer lines, both of which are flexible between making PET or textiles. Or what we said is specialties, but that's actually copolyesters, not Tritan. To your point, Tritan is much more economically made here in the U.S. with the integrated systems and monomers that we have to make that very unique polymer.

至於法國工廠，我們也不會對那裡做任何改變。因此，該工廠的設計是擁有兩條聚合物生產線，兩條生產線都可以靈活地生產 PET 或紡織品。或者我們說的是特種材料，但那其實是共聚酯，而不是 Tritan。正如您所說，在美國，Tritan 的生產更加經濟，因為我們擁有生產這種獨特聚合物的整合系統和單體。

So this will be just more PETG products that go into packaging, cosmetics, bottles and things like that and a variety of other applications that we make into -- with our traditional PETGs. So nothing's changed in our asset strategy whatsoever from a product mix point of view. Kingsport's, all Specialties; France's, half PET, half Specialty; and the second U.S. plant here is all PET or textiles.

因此，這將是更多的 PETG 產品，用於包裝、化妝品、瓶子等物品以及我們用傳統 PETG 製作的各種其他應用。因此，從產品組合的角度來看，我們的資產策略沒有任何改變。金斯波特的所有特色菜；法國的，一半是 PET，一半是特種；這裡的第二家美國工廠全部生產 PET 或紡織品。

Our next question comes from Salvator Tiano of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Salvator Tiano。

Firstly, I want to ask a little bit about your plasticizers footprint. How much would you say of your total sales or earnings was coming from the Texas City facility that you're selling? And can you discuss a little bit what are the economics of the agreement where e-mails will actually operate the asset, but technically, you're still the owner of it?

首先，我想問一下你們的塑化劑足跡問題。您認為您的總銷售額或收益中有多少來自您正在出售的德州城工廠？您能否稍微討論一下該協議的經濟性，即電子郵件實際上會操作資產，但從技術上講，您仍然是資產的所有者？

Yes. So we retain the ownership of the Texas City plasticizers. That was the original strategic intent of buying the Texas City facility along with, I'll call it, the infrastructure that the site had. So first, we're retaining the ownership and the sales.

是的。因此我們保留了德克薩斯城增塑劑的所有權。這就是購買德州城工廠以及該工廠所擁有的基礎設施的最初戰略意圖。因此首先，我們保留所有權和銷售權。

Second, I would say, the economics around that are substantially the same as it operated today within Chemical Intermediates. So the only thing that you're going to see is reduced sales of acetyls out of the Texas City site within Chemical Intermediates. The remaining plasticizer business is and remains intact.

其次，我想說，其經濟狀況與當今化學中間體的經濟狀況基本相同。因此，您唯一會看到的是德克薩斯城化學中間體工廠的乙醯基銷售額下降。剩餘的增塑劑業務維持不變。

Okay. Perfect. And I also want to ask about pulp prices. I think there has been some traction with increases in the past 1 or 2 months max. What are you seeing there? And could this be a headwind in there for 2024?

好的。完美的。另外我還想問紙漿價格。我認為過去最多 1 或 2 個月內出現了一些增長。你在那裡看到了什麼？這會成為 2024 年的阻力嗎？

No, we're not expecting any headwinds from pulp. Part of what we did in our tow contracts is improve our pricing, obviously, to get our margins back to being able to reliably supply our customers, because this is an extremely valuable product for them and reliability is a priority for them. But we also change the contracts.

不，我們預計紙漿不會帶來任何阻力。我們在拖曳合約中所做的部分工作顯然是提高定價，以使我們的利潤率恢復到能夠可靠地供應客戶的狀態，因為這對他們來說是極其有價值的產品，可靠性是他們的首要任務。但我們也會改變合約。

It used to be fixed-price contracts, and we had to ride the benefit or the headwind associated with pulp prices or energy. We've now adjusted those contracts to be more like our amines business where there are more cost pass-through and adjust for changes in energy or pulp. So that's not a concern as we go forward. It's not perfect, but it's a significant improvement from where we were in the past.

過去，我們簽訂的是固定價格合同，我們必須利用紙漿價格或能源帶來的好處或不利因素。我們現在已經調整了這些合同，使其更像我們的胺類業務，其中有更多的成本轉嫁並根據能源或紙漿的變化進行調整。因此，就我們未來的發展而言，這並不是什麼問題。它並不完美，但與過去相比已經有了顯著的進步。

Our next question comes from Mike Leithead of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

First, Mark, I wanted to follow up on Fibers. In January, when we started the year, when you had the annual prices sort of locked in, you expected to make about $275 million this year in EBIT. Now we're looking north of $410 million. So can you maybe just talk about what's changed versus starting year's largely cost? And just help us with your confidence in the sustainability of this higher level here?

首先，馬克，我想跟進一下 Fibers 的情況。今年一月份，當我們開始新的一年時，當您鎖定年度價格時，您預計今年的息稅前利潤約為 2.75 億美元。現在我們的目標已經超過 4.1 億美元。那麼，您能否談談與年初相比主要成本有哪些變化？您對這更高層次的永續性有信心嗎？

So what I would highlight is the fact that, one, we're confident in the base of where we've gotten to at this point in time. So we're at greater than $410 million for this year.

因此，我想強調的是，第一，我們對目前所取得的基礎充滿信心。因此，今年我們的營收將超過 4.1 億美元。

The business team has done a tremendous job of getting the contract structure in place, that's what Mark just highlighted, from our confidence of both the margins within this business. Also, as we think about Fibers more broadly with the textiles and the textiles growth as we go from '23 to '24, I guess, I would just highlight that right now, we're substantially complete with the contracts for 2024 and had a high commitment level, as we highlighted in the prepared remarks for '25.

業務團隊在建立合約結構方面做了大量工作，這就是馬克剛才強調的，我們對該業務的利潤率充滿信心。此外，當我們從更廣泛的角度考慮纖維與紡織品以及從 23 年到 24 年的紡織品增長時，我想，我現在只想強調的是，我們已經基本完成了 2024 年的合同，並且具有很高的承諾水平，正如我們在 25 年的準備好的評論中所強調的那樣。

Going back to the first part of your question, ultimately, part of that was growing in confidence. We do have lower energy cost than we had expected at the beginning of the year. And as we gained momentum and seeing how the contracts and the contract structures were working, we just reconfirmed that as we grew the earnings and grew the confidence by year-end. It's a great business, and we're happy with where it's headed and will be a strong contributor to cash as we go forward.

回到你問題的第一部分，最終，部分原因是信心的增強。我們的能源成本確實比年初預期的要低。隨著我們獲得動力並看到合約和合約結構如何運作，我們再次確認，隨著年底我們的收益增加和信心增強。這是一項偉大的業務，我們對它的發展方向感到滿意，並且在未來的發展中它將成為我們現金的重要貢獻者。

The cost structure and the utilization benefits, and we are being conservative about how well some of the investments we were making in running the plant efficiently, were going to play out until we had that proven out. And so all of that came together. So it's not just price. We've made investments and are operating our facilities a lot better. And that we didn't want to sort of count on until we've proven it to ourselves.

成本結構和利用效益，以及我們對高效運作工廠所做的一些投資的效果持保守態度，直到我們證明這一點為止。所以這一切都匯集到了一起。所以這不僅僅是價格問題。我們進行了投資，我們的設施運作得更好了。在我們自己證明這一點之前，我們不想依賴它。

Great. That's super helpful. And then second, I just wanted to follow up on the trajectory of CapEx. Obviously, you've given us some numbers about CapEx going somewhat lower next year. So when I just think about your large growth projects, you've got about 2 more methanolysis projects on the horizon. You mentioned earlier to Jeff about the new timing on Tritan. So just high level, should we expect CapEx to roughly stay around this $800 million range the next few years? Should it trend higher or lower overall?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。其次，我只是想追蹤資本支出的軌跡。顯然，您向我們提供了一些關於明年資本支出將下降的數據。因此，當我考慮您的大型成長項目時，您還有大約 2 個甲醇分解項目即將實施。您之前向 Jeff 提到過 Tritan 的新時間安排。那麼，從高層次來看，我們是否應該預期未來幾年資本支出大致維持在這個 8 億美元左右？整體趨勢應該上升還是下降？

Yes, what you would expect is, again, that we expect around $800 million or less in 2024. To your point, obviously, we're in the detailed engineering phases right now. And then France would be probably first out of the gate on long lead and then construction, closely followed by the second U.S. So we would expect 2025, we would be building CapEx and it's just going to depend on the time line. So what I would say is it will be above $800 million, and we'll give you more firm answers on how we see '25 when we actually get the project schedule set.

是的，您預期的是，我們預計 2024 年的營收約為 8 億美元或更少。顯然，正如您所說，我們現在正處於詳細的工程階段。然後，法國可能會先開始長期建設，緊隨其後的是美國。因此，我們預計到 2025 年，我們將開始建立資本支出，而這將取決於時間表。所以我想說的是，這個數字將超過 8 億美元，當我們真正確定專案進度時，我們會就 25 年的前景給出更確切的答案。

Our next question comes from Josh Spector of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

This is James Cannon on for Josh. In AFP, you called out in your guidance some raws increasing in the fourth quarter. I believe you transferred some propylene from the CI segment, I'm assuming that might be a big part of it. But is there anything else we should be thinking about in that...

詹姆斯·坎農 (James Cannon) 代替喬什 (Josh) 發言。在法新社的指導中，您提到第四季度一些原料將會增加。我相信您從 CI 段轉移了一些丙烯，我假設這可能是其中很大一部分。但我們還應該考慮其他什麼嗎？

Yes. So we buy methanol. We buy ammonia. We buy -- and we do have propylene-derived Specialty Products and coatings. So all those products obviously are impacted by oil and overall market dynamics, and creating some headwinds as those are increasing. Especially from the oil change, it flows through and there's just a lag in how the contract prices catch up to it. And so you have a headwind in the fourth quarter and that sequentially will then turn to a tailwind in the first quarter from the fourth quarter when those pricing adjustments catch up.

是的。所以我們買甲醇。我們購買氨。我們購買—並且我們確實擁有丙烯衍生的特種產品和塗料。因此，所有這些產品顯然都受到石油和整體市場動態的影響，並且隨著這些因素的增加而產生一些阻力。特別是從石油變化開始，它會流經整個市場，而合約價格的跟進會存在滯後。因此，第四季會面臨逆風，而當第四季的價格調整跟上後，第一季的逆風就會轉為順風。

All right. Great. And then just on the Specialty Fluids that you called out some pull-forward, can you give a little bit more color on what you saw there and kind of how much you expect to get pulled out of Q4?

好的。偉大的。然後，就您所說的特種液體而言，您能否更詳細地介紹一下您在那裡看到的情況，以及您預計第四季度的銷售額將增長多少？

Yes. So our original guidance was we had some great fills on some LNG plants in the second quarter. We had originally expected that to be a bit more in the third at the beginning of the year. So that -- those fills were made. And so when you look at the sequential drop from Q2 to Q3, we thought it would be about $30 million. But we had some additional fills show up in the third quarter, so that drop turned out to only be about $20 million. But the Fluid sales for the year aren't changing, so that just means now that there's an additional $10 million drop of that $30 million that will happen from Q3 to Q4. So that's part of why AFP is declining sequentially into the fourth quarter.

是的。因此，我們最初的指導是，我們在第二季度對一些液化天然氣工廠進行了很好的填充。我們原本預計今年第三季的銷售額會更高一些。這樣——那些填充就完成了。因此，當您查看第二季到第三季的連續下降時，我們認為下降幅度約為 3000 萬美元。但我們在第三季出現了一些額外的填充，因此下降幅度僅為 2000 萬美元左右。但今年的 Fluid 銷售額沒有變化，所以這只意味著從第三季到第四季的 3,000 萬美元銷售額將再下降 1,000 萬美元。這也是為什麼 AFP 在第四季連續下滑的原因之一。

But overall, great business and we really like these LNG fills. There's obviously a lot of construction -- sort of traditional chemical construction activity uncertainty, especially with PET plants in China, where a lot of these fills go. And it's been great to diversify our exposure to that cycle with these LNG plants that also use a lot of heat transfer fluids. And I think as we look at that set of the markets, we see a lot of LNG facilities being built with the Ukraine-Russia situation, and are very well positioned with our products with those fills, which also turned out to be pretty high-value products for what they need to do. And we continue to really diversify our exposure into these places that are not as connected to what's going on in China, which is great.

但總體而言，生意很好，我們真的很喜歡這些液化天然氣填充物。顯然，許多建築——某種程度上是傳統化學建築活動的不確定性，尤其是中國的 PET 工廠，許多填充物都流向那裡。透過這些也使用大量傳熱流體的液化天然氣工廠，我們可以分散對這個循環的接觸，這非常好。我認為，當我們審視這組市場時，我們會看到許多液化天然氣設施是在烏克蘭和俄羅斯的情況下建造的，並且我們的產品在填充這些設施方面處於非常有利的地位，而且這些產品對於它們需要做的事情來說也是相當高價值的產品。我們繼續真正地將我們的投資多元化到與中國發生的事情聯繫不那麼緊密的地方，這是很好的。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Mark, I didn't see anything in the prepared remarks that you released on the subject of the UAW strike. Can you speak to whether or not that's having any material impact? And if so, what you might be baking into the fourth quarter? Or any auto-related commentary in general would be welcome.

馬克，我沒有看到你發布的關於 UAW 罷工問題的任何準備好的評論。您能否說說這是否會產生實質影響？如果是的話，您會在第四季做出什麼計劃？或者一般來說，任何與汽車相關的評論都會受到歡迎。

Sure. So specifically UAW, the math on that is it's a pretty limited impact on us. About 20% of our auto interlayer business globally is in the United States. So our just overall exposure is not that high. And then you're just talking about 3 brands as many that are in the U.S. that are being impacted by the UAW. So it's not a material impact. I would say that, overall, the auto business, obviously, has been a solid business for us. We've seen a lot of growth in the business in the U.S. and Europe in particular for the interlayer business as well as the films business.

當然。因此，具體來說，從數學上講，UAW 對我們的影響相當有限。我們全球約有20%的汽車夾層業務位於美國。所以我們的整體曝光率並不是那麼高。然後你談到了美國有 3 個品牌受到了 UAW 的影響。所以這不是實質影響。我想說，總體而言，汽車業務顯然對我們來說是一項穩固的業務。我們看到美國和歐洲的業務取得了巨大的成長，特別是夾層業務和薄膜業務。

So I would note that China has been a challenge all year long. So we haven't seen the growth we expected. We definitely thought we'd see some improved growth in the back half of the year, and that's one of the things that didn't play out as we thought from July to now in how we've adjusted our outlook down a bit. And that's particularly impacting our performance in films business, which has -- an important business in China, and we're not seeing the sort of the growth that we expected there and even some contraction right now at the sales level in some parts of that Chinese business. So overall, I'd say, it's been a great business. We expect it to be better next year than this year, but it's -- there's a lot of ups and downs going on across the different markets.

因此我想指出，中國全年都面臨挑戰。因此，我們並沒有看到預期的成長。我們確實認為下半年的成長會有所改善，但從 7 月到現在，情況並沒有像我們想像的那樣發展，因此我們稍微下調了預期。這對我們在中國電影業務中的表現影響尤其大，電影業務是中國的重要業務，我們並沒有看到預期的成長，目前中國部分業務的銷售額甚至出現了萎縮。所以總的來說，我想說，這是一筆很棒的生意。我們預計明年的情況會比今年更好，但是不同市場之間存在著許多起伏。

And then secondly, if I may, perhaps for Willie, I think earlier this year, you had guided to a cost headwind related to pension and OPEB of $110 million, if my notes are correct. Is that still the case? And more importantly, what happens to that line item moving forward into 2024? Does it come back down? Or would you point to a different trajectory?

其次，如果可以的話，也許對於威利來說，我想今年早些時候，你曾指導與退休金和 OPEB 相關的成本逆風為 1.1 億美元，如果我的記錄正確的話。現在還是這樣嗎？更重要的是，到 2024 年，該計畫會發生什麼？它會回落嗎？還是你會指出一條不同的軌跡？

Yes. So ultimately, that number is set for the year at the beginning of the year. So the $110 million is just coming through quarterly as we expected. That gets mark-to-market at the end of the year. So there will be, call it, a gain-loss from asset returns as well as interest rates. And right now, as we look at where rates are, assets and returns, it's probably a modest headwind if you were to market-to-market right now. But again, we'll give you an update. We don't expect anything material that we'll update you at year-end.

是的。因此，最終，這個數字是在年初設定的。因此，正如我們預期的那樣，1.1 億美元每季都會到位。年底時將以市價計價。因此，資產回報和利率都會產生損益。現在，當我們觀察利率、資產和回報率時，如果你現在進行市場對市場交易，這可能是一個適度的阻力。但我們會再次向您提供最新消息。我們並不期望在年底向您更新任何實質內容。

And any insight on 2024, Willie?

威利，您對 2024 年有什麼見解嗎？

From a pension standpoint, we expect it to be a modest headwind if we look at it right now. That will change a lot depending on how rates finish up for the year.

從退休金的角度來看，如果我們現在來看，我們預計這將是一個溫和的阻力。這將根據今年利率的最終走勢而發生很大變化。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

This is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. I don't know if I missed this or not, but so for the second plant in the U.S. and the plant that you're building in France, do we think of those as when they are up and running to be $150 million in EBITDA additions as well? Or is it greater scale or less than that? Or how should we think about it long term?

丹·里佐 (Dan Rizzo) 代替勞倫斯。我不知道我是否錯過了這一點，但是對於美國的第二家工廠和您正在法國建造的工廠，我們是否認為當它們投入運作時，EBITDA 也會增加 1.5 億美元？或者說規模更大或更小？或者我們應該如何從長遠角度來考慮這個問題？

Yes. We've never given, I'll call it, plant by plant. We said greater than $450 million. And as Mark highlighted earlier in some of our conversations, the first plant is more Specialty with our Tritan portfolio, so you can expect it to be higher than the other 2.

是的。我把這叫做我們從來沒有一株一株地給予過。我們說的是超過4.5億美元。正如馬克之前在我們一些對話中強調的那樣，第一家工廠更專注於我們的 Tritan 產品組合，因此你可以預期它的產量會高於其他兩家工廠。

Okay. And then if -- when we think about you saying medical demand, there being some destocking. But getting back to more, I guess, normalization, I was just wondering if that end market is at pre-COVID levels in terms of elective surgeries and the actual overall demand versus some of the inventory adjustments we're seeing right now?

好的。然後，如果—當我們想到您所說的醫療需求時，就會出現一些去庫存的情況。但我想，回到更正常的狀態，我只是想知道，就選擇性手術和實際整體需求而言，終端市場是否處於 COVID 之前的水平，以及我們目前看到的一些庫存調整？

Yes, the elective surgeries that are occurring are certainly growing roughly 5% a year and definitely above sort of pre-COVID levels if you look at it. Not a lot, but a little bit. The issue we're having in medical is not about demand at all, right? Like in consumer durables, laptops, TVs, appliances, they're not being sold nearly as much as they were. Medical is really stable end market. The customers, though, we're very nervous during the supply chain crisis about having enough material, and so they built a lot of inventory to be safe, and because you cannot have a problem in getting medical devices delivered in our packaging to the marketplace for obvious reasons.

是的，如果你看一下，正在進行的選擇性手術肯定每年增長約 5%，而且肯定高於 COVID 之前的水平。不多，但有一點。我們在醫療上遇到的問題根本不是需求問題，對嗎？就像耐用消費品、筆記型電腦、電視、家用電器一樣，它們的銷售遠不如以前。醫療確實是一個穩定的終端市場。然而，在供應鏈危機期間，我們非常擔心客戶是否有足夠的材料，因此他們建立了大量的庫存以確保安全，而且由於顯而易見的原因，將我們包裝中的醫療器械運送到市場時不會出現問題。

So they finally got calm that there's plenty of supply and reliability, and started destocking in the second quarter of this year, and then they're still doing it through this quarter. But it's just a destocking event. The markets are solid and expected to be better next year than this year.

因此，他們最終確信供應充足且可靠，並在今年第二季開始去庫存，並且本季仍在這樣做。但這只是一次去庫存事件。市場表現穩健，預計明年比今年更好。

Our next question comes from Mike Sison of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

This is Richard on for Mike. So just a question on the 2024 outlook. Are you assuming any price improvement in the next year? We've seen prices come down in the third quarter and second quarter despite higher raw material pressures. So I'm just wondering if there's any price/mix improvement that we should expect, new product launches, that type of thing?

我是理查德，代替麥克。所以我只想問一下 2024 年的前景。您認為明年價格會上漲嗎？儘管原物料壓力增加，但我們看到第三季和第二季價格有所下降。所以我只是想知道我們是否應該期待任何價格/組合改進，新產品發布，諸如此類的事情？

Well, so from a price on an existing product sold this year versus next year on the specialties, we're not really expecting much price increases except for where we have cost pass-through contracts, and then the prices will adjust up or down based on where raw materials are going. Now obviously, for an increasing raw material environment, we will increase prices across the specialties. But in our scenario that we gave you where raw materials are relatively flat next year to this year, I would not expect to increase prices in the specialties.

好吧，所以從今年銷售的現有產品的價格與明年特種產品的價格相比，我們實際上並不期望價格大幅上漲，除非我們有成本轉嫁合同，然後價格將根據原材料的去向進行上調或下調。顯然，由於原物料價格上漲，我們將提高所有特種產品的價格。但在我們給出的情境中，明年和今年的原物料價格相對持平，我預期特種產品的價格不會上漲。

I do expect prices probably to go up in Chemical Intermediates, because right now, we're at the bottom of the market, right? We're at the cash -- in the Olefin derivatives, we're at the cash cost of the marginal producer in these markets. It's a pretty -- it's a very challenging market situation right now in Olefins. And so there is an expectation of some normalization of those prices in getting better. I mean the value of the price of propylene relative to oil is about 40% lower than normal. That's extreme and never ever seen before in the past.

我確實預計化學中間體的價格可能會上漲，因為現在我們處於市場底部，對嗎？我們持有現金－在烯烴衍生物方面，我們持有這些市場中邊際生產者的現金成本。目前烯烴市場的情況非常嚴峻。因此，人們預計這些價格將逐漸恢復正常。我的意思是丙烯價格相對於石油的價格比正常水平低了約40％。這是非常極端的，過去從未見過。

So that's a lot of the compression that we're facing due to just an excess amount of capacity being added as well as very low demand in a number of applications that use propylene. So there's some balancing of that, that will occur even with just the end of destocking and some stable markets growing. So that's one place where I would expect some prices to improve and margins to improve sort of how we look at it at this stage.

因此，我們面臨的巨大壓力是由於新增產能過剩以及許多使用丙烯的應用領域需求非常低。因此，即使去庫存化剛結束，一些穩定的市場正在成長，這種情況也會出現平衡。因此，我預計部分地區的價格和利潤率將會提高，就我們目前的看法而言。

I would say, the teams have done a phenomenally good job of holding prices at very high levels in this very challenging market that's created a lot of improvement in our price to variable cost ratio, offsetting some of the volume challenges.

我想說的是，在這個充滿挑戰的市場中，團隊在將價格維持在非常高的水平方面做得非常出色，這大大提高了我們的價格與變動成本比率，抵消了部分數量挑戰。

Great. And then as a follow-up, any update on terms of the market for pricing for the product from your Kingsport plant and circular products? How is that progressing moving forward as you move to develop the other large projects?

偉大的。然後作為後續問題，關於金斯波特工廠的產品和循環產品的市場定價方面有什麼更新嗎？當您著手開發其他大型專案時，進度如何？

Yes. So pricing is holding up really well. We're having no issues with the premiums that we need to get for the recycled content-related products on the specialty side, and I'm having good conversations with our customers on the PET side for the premiums that we need to get that go in line with the economics that we've provided to you. So we feel really, really good about that. It's an exciting time right now with the methanolysis plant coming -- being completed and starting up. We have a phenomenal number of people working hard and making sure that start-up process goes well.

是的。因此定價保持得非常好。我們對專業方面回收內容相關產品所需獲得的溢價沒有任何問題，而且我正在與 PET 方面的客戶進行良好的對話，以了解我們需要獲得的溢價，使其符合我們向您提供的經濟效益。所以我們對此感到非常非常好。現在是一個令人興奮的時刻，甲醇分解工廠即將竣工並投入使用。我們擁有大量辛勤工作的員工，確保啟動過程順利進行。

Back to Frank's comment, the video is a great marketing tool with customers. It's an outstanding story when you see these huge piles of garbage -- multicolored garbage, all kinds of types of garbage that we're taking and running through our process and coming out with a clear pellet. Customers are very surprised and impressed by the low-quality material that we're using that is headed to -- cannot be reused with mechanical recyclers at all. This is going to go to landfill or incineration or really low-end applications. And they're just very impressed that we can take that garbage and turn it into a clear, food-grade quality pellet.

回到弗蘭克的評論，影片是面向客戶的絕佳行銷工具。當你看到這些巨大的垃圾堆時，這是一個非常精彩的故事——五顏六色的垃圾，各種各樣的垃圾，我們把它們收集起來，經過我們的處理，最後都變成了透明的顆粒。客戶對我們所使用的低品質材料感到非常驚訝和印象深刻，這些材料根本無法透過機械回收機重複使用。這些垃圾將被掩埋、焚燒或用於低端用途。他們對我們能夠將垃圾轉化為透明、食品級品質的顆粒感到非常印象深刻。

And so the customer engagements around that story of getting things truly out of landfill and incineration, not just using a clear bottle that is from -- that could have been mechanically recycled, is driving a lot of engagement. The other thing that's important to keep in mind is a lot of the applications we're targeting with this recycled content, both -- especially in the PET, our applications were mechanical recycling is not really able to meet the specifications in performance because the quality is just not good enough, right?

因此，圍繞著如何真正將物品從垃圾掩埋場和焚燒場中回收，而不僅僅是使用可以透過機械回收的透明瓶子這一故事，客戶參與度正在推動大量參與。另一件需要牢記的重要事情是，我們針對這種回收材料的許多應用，尤其是 PET，我們的應用是機械回收，實際上不能滿足性能規格，因為品質不夠好，對嗎？

Our product is identical to virgin material made from fossil fuels. Mechanical is not. It's got integrity issues, color issues. So we are really targeting those applications where mechanical is not a choice. That allows us to command a better premium than mechanical and support our economics.

我們的產品與化石燃料製成的原始材料完全相同。機械則不然。它存在完整性問題和顏色問題。所以我們真正針對的是那些無法使用機械的應用。這使我們能夠獲得比機械更好的溢價並支持我們的經濟。

Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

And staying with methanolysis. So there have been many projects in the industry where capital cost estimates have been revised higher over the last year or 2. And I believe you presented your return on capital objections for the 2 additional methanolysis plants a couple of years ago. So is it reasonable to assume CapEx probably needs to go up versus your initial expectations? And if so, how are you mitigating return of capital now?

並繼續進行甲醇分解。因此，業內有許多項目的資本成本估算在過去一兩年內都被上調了。我相信您幾年前就提出了對另外兩家甲醇分解工廠的資本回報率的反對意見。那麼，假設資本支出可能需要高於您最初的預期是否合理？如果是的話，您現在該如何減少資本回報？

Yes. So it's an important question and one we're very focused on. The capital headwinds that we encountered in the project here in Kingsport were really isolated to construction quality and productivity issues around pipe installation, and that was a very specific issue. It had nothing to do about the design of the plant or the scope of the plant and what we're trying to do when we got into these issues here in the last 6 months. And the way we're approaching the next 2 projects, we're taking a very different approach using very large contractors that are very capable of controlling those costs in a much better way than what happened here. So we feel we're in a far better shape.

是的。所以這是一個重要的問題，也是我們非常關心的問題。我們在金斯波特專案中遇到的資金阻力實際上與管道安裝的施工品質和生產力問題有關，這是一個非常具體的問題。這與工廠的設計或工廠的範圍以及我們在過去 6 個月遇到這些問題時所做的事情無關。在處理接下來的兩個專案時，我們採取了一種非常不同的方法，使用非常大的承包商，他們能夠以比這裡更好的方式控製成本。所以我們感覺我們的狀況好多了。

Also, we're not trying to build a new plant, right? So this is a new first time 100,000-ton plant that we're building. The plants that we're going to build in France and the second one in the U.S. are basically the same plant we built here with some sort of modest improvements. So we're not going into this without already knowing what the capital cost is for the methanolysis unit. And the polymer lines are built all the time well-established to understand what those capital costs are going to be. Infrastructure is also pretty straightforward that surround the plant. So we feel good that we can come up with a high-quality estimate for the next 2 projects, and we can manage the construction process far better than what happened in Kingsport.

另外，我們不是想蓋一座新工廠，對吧？這是我們正在建造的第一個 10 萬噸級新工廠。我們將在法國建造的工廠和在美國建造的第二家工廠基本上與我們在這裡建造的工廠相同，只是進行了一些適度的改進。因此，在我們還不知道甲醇分解裝置的資本成本的情況下，我們是不會進行這項研究的。而聚合物生產線的建造始終都是完善的，以了解這些資本成本將會是多少。工廠周圍的基礎設施也相當簡單。因此，我們很高興能夠為接下來的兩個項目提供高品質的估算，並且我們可以比金斯波特更好地管理施工過程。

And so we're still working those numbers. They're still in line with what we expected to deliver at 12% return or greater for the France and the second U.S. plant. Remember, the first plant here is greater than 15% even with higher capital costs. So we feel good about sort of where we are on the capital side of this. And of course, we're pursuing these additional incentives for both projects, as I discussed earlier. And obviously, if we get those, that's going to help manage capital risk as well as improved returns.

所以我們仍在計算這些數字。它們仍然符合我們預期的法國和美國第二家工廠 12% 或更高的回報率。請記住，即使資本成本較高，這裡的第一家工廠的收益率也超過 15%。因此，我們對於目前資本方面的狀況感到滿意。當然，正如我之前所討論的，我們正在為這兩個項目尋求額外的激勵。顯然，如果我們得到這些，這將有助於管理資本風險以及提高回報。

Thanks, Mark. You preprocess that their amount of materials for the Kingsport plant, any lessons so far versus your initial expectations in terms of how this front-end technology works and what the costs are?

謝謝，馬克。您對金斯波特工廠的材料數量進行了預處理，到目前為止，就這項前端技術的工作原理和成本而言，與您最初的預期相比，有什麼經驗教訓嗎？

So far, the processing has gone well. I mean there's always hiccups. It's a proprietary new process that we developed, that takes a lot of steps out of the sortation compared to a mechanical recycler. So we're excited about taking that approach. Chemical recycling allows you to do that because you're not meeting perfect clear material to sell back to the market as the big pile suggests in the video. But the process is up and running and working well at this stage, and we feel good about how that's going to work.

目前，處理進展順利。我的意思是總是會出現問題。這是我們開發的專有新工藝，與機械回收機相比，它在分類過程中減少了許多步驟。因此我們很高興採取這種方法。化學回收可以讓你做到這一點，因為你不會遇到完美的透明材料來賣回市場，就像影片中一大堆材料所暗示的那樣。但目前流程已啟動並運作良好，我們對其未來運作感到滿意。

Our overall cost, when we think about sourcing material and processing it into the front of the plant, is a little bit better than we expected.

當我們考慮採購材料並將其加工到工廠前部時，我們的總體成本比我們預期的要好一些。

So we're feeling really good on the feedstock side here, feel great about having 70% of the feedstock already in long-term contracts in France as well. So I know feedstock was a big question in the beginning of this whole process as a risk. We've actually managed that one reasonably well. Customers are going well. Now the final step is starting up the technology, improving its economics and its effectiveness as sort of the final big milestone in front of us here over the next 2 months.

因此，我們對原料方面的情況感到非常滿意，並且很高興在法國已經簽訂了 70% 的原料長期合約。所以我知道原料在整個過程開始時是一個大問題，而且是一個風險。事實上，我們已經相當成功地解決了這個問題。客戶都順利。現在，最後一步是啟動這項技術，提高其經濟性和有效性，這是未來兩個月我們面臨的最後一個重要里程碑。

So we're really excited to sort of check all those boxes, keep going forward with this plant, use it to help improve earnings next year in a difficult environment, and get these next 2 projects underway and create a lot of value for our owners.

因此，我們非常高興能夠完成所有這些工作，繼續推進工廠的建設，利用它來幫助在困難的環境下提高明年的收益，並啟動接下來的兩個項目，為我們的業主創造大量價值。

Let's make the next question the last one, please.

請將下一個問題作為最後一個問題。

Our next question -- our final question comes from Duffy Fischer of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題——最後一個問題來自高盛的達菲費雪。

If we could, let's stay on methanolysis. If we assume we're kind of at the run rate of our $450 million EBITDA from the 3 plants, how volatile would that $450 million be over a typical, let's say, 7-year cycle? And then talk about the volatility you may see on the pricing side and the volatility you may see on the feedstock side over that 7-year cycle?

如果可以的話，我們就繼續討論甲醇分解。如果我們假設這 3 家工廠的 EBITDA 運作率為 4.5 億美元，那麼在典型的 7 年週期內，這 4.5 億美元的波動性如何？然後談談在這 7 年周期內您可能在定價方面看到的波動以及您可能在原料方面看到的波動？

That's a great question, Duffy, and one that's been a big focus for us. As we've told you from the beginning, the approach we're taking with this plant is to be more of an industrial gas-type project in how we deliver very stable margins and attractive margins when you look at the economics for these projects. So on the PET side, we're doing contracts that pass through the changes in feedstock and energy costs, delivering stable margins for us.

達菲，這個問題問得非常好，也是我們一直在關注的問題。正如我們從一開始就告訴您的那樣，我們對這個工廠採取的方法更像是一個工業氣體類型的項目，當您從這些項目的經濟效益來看時，我們如何提供非常穩定的利潤率和有吸引力的利潤率。因此，在 PET 方面，我們正在簽訂合同，以應對原料和能源成本的變化，從而為我們提供穩定的利潤。

We have no intention of getting back into the merchant PET market and going forward. And if we don't get those contracts, as we've said, we won't build the plants. But we're getting the contracts, and we're feeling good about it.

我們無意重返商用 PET 市場並繼續前進。正如我們所說的，如果我們得不到這些合同，我們就不會建造這些工廠。但我們獲得了合同，並且對此感到很高興。

So those margins will be stable in the PET side. On the Specialty side, we have demonstrated great pricing power around our Specialty Products and managing the price to variable cost ratio really well and keeping those ratios stable. From a demand point of view, what I'd say is the PET market, the packaging market, is a lot more stable than some of the other more discretionary markets. So we think that will actually add stability from these projects as well as to the company portfolio.

因此 PET 方面的利潤率將保持穩定。在專業方面，我們在專業產品方面展示了強大的定價能力，並且很好地管理了價格與變動成本的比率並保持了這些比率的穩定性。從需求的角度來看，我認為 PET 市場，即包裝市場，比其他一些更自由的市場穩定得多。因此我們認為這實際上會增加這些項目以及公司投資組合的穩定性。

The other thing I'd note is it's a regional business, right? So when you're taking packaging waste out of the environment, the brands and, even more so, the regulators want to solve the local packaging waste issue in Europe or the U.S. So we want that waste taken back into a polymer and then provided back into the packaging and create a closed loop and food grade for fossil fuel-based PET is no longer used. So this disconnects us from China. We're not trying to solve China's waste problem in the U.S. or Europe, and we're trying to solve the European and the U.S. waste problems.

我要注意的另一件事是，這是一項區域性業務，對嗎？因此，當你將包裝廢棄物從環境中清除出去時，品牌商，尤其是監管機構，都希望解決歐洲或美國的當地包裝廢棄物問題。因此，我們希望將這些廢棄物重新製成聚合物，然後再重新用於包裝，形成一個閉環，並且不再使用基於化石燃料的食品級 PET。因此，這就使我們與中國斷絕了聯繫。我們並不是試圖解決美國或歐洲的垃圾問題，我們是試圖解決歐洲和美國的垃圾問題。

So it becomes more of a regional business. The brands will have to be really careful about making sure they're sort of focused on solving the local impact, to protect their brand equity. The regulators are running policies, especially in Europe, it's already written that the polymer has to be made from packaging placed on the European market. So those -- that regional aspect of this business has been a core reason we've been interested and excited about making these investments. So it's not perfect. You still have macroeconomic demand uncertainty, but it's going to be very stable EBITDA.

因此它變得更像一個區域性企業。品牌必須非常小心，確保他們專注於解決當地影響，以保護他們的品牌資產。監管機構正在製定政策，特別是在歐洲，已經規定聚合物必須由投放到歐洲市場的包裝製成。因此，這項業務的區域性特徵是我們對這些投資感興趣並感到興奮的核心原因。所以它並不完美。宏觀經濟需求仍存在不確定性，但 EBITDA 將非常穩定。

Great. And then just one technical question about your acetic acid sale. Did you sell the technology for acetic to them as well? Or if you chose to, you could build a plant or you could do something like that SIPCHEM licensing deal that you did before where you actually kept the technology?

偉大的。然後我再問一個關於你們醋酸銷售的技術問題。你也把醋酸技術賣給他們了嗎？或者如果您選擇的話，您可以建造一座工廠，或者您可以做一些類似於您之前所做的 SIPCHEM 許可協議的事情，您實際上保留了這項技術？

Duffy, the sale of the Texas City facility is -- that is not part of the strategic focus for Eastman. As Mark has highlighted, we're about anhydride and anhydride derivatives and cellulosics. So the key thing here is this is a great for any acetyl business and for Eastman as we go forward with our focus on circular and a circular economy.

達菲，德州城工廠的出售並不是伊士曼的戰略重點。正如馬克所強調的，我們關注的是酸酐、酸酐衍生物和纖維素。因此，關鍵在於，這對任何乙醯基業務以及伊士曼來說都是一件好事，因為我們將繼續專注於循環和循環經濟。

Right. It has no effect on our rights to use our technology or license our technology.

正確的。它對我們使用我們的技術或許可我們的技術的權利沒有影響。

Okay, everyone. Thanks very much for joining us today. We appreciate that. And hope that you have a great rest of your day and a great weekend.

好的，各位。非常感謝您今天加入我們。我們對此表示感謝。祝您今天剩餘的時間過得愉快，並度過一個愉快的週末。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。