伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the second quarter 2020 for Eastman conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼 2020 年第二季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製。本次電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將電話轉給伊士曼投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Okay. Thank you, Chiach. Good morning, everyone. And thanks for joining us.

好的。謝謝你，Chiach。大家早安。感謝您的加入。

On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Executive Vice President and CFO; Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations; and a new member of our IR team, Emily Edwards.

今天與我一起通話的有董事會主席兼執行長馬克‧科斯塔 (Mark Costa)；威利麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain)，執行副總裁兼財務長； Jake LaRoe，投資人關係經理；以及我們 IR 團隊的新成員 Emily Edwards。

Yesterday after market close, we posted our second quarter 2024 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, our slides, and the related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，我們在網站 eastman.com 的投資者部分發布了 2024 年第二季度財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件、幻燈片以及相關的準備好的評論。

Before we begin, I'll cover three items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our second quarter 2024 financial results news release during this call, in the preceding slides, and prepared remarks, and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for full year 2023 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for second quarter of 2024.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹三件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已經或將在本次電話會議中的 2024 年第二季度財務業績新聞稿、前面的幻燈片和準備好的評論中以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的 2023 年全年 10-K 表和將於 2024 年第二季度提交的 10-Q 表。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items are available in the second quarter 2024 financial results news release.

其次，本報告中提到的收益不包括某些非核心項目和非常規項目。2024 年第二季財務績效新聞稿中提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳以及其他相關揭露，包括對排除和調整項目的描述。

And one more item. After we posted our materials last night, I became aware that there is a conflict on the date we chose Tuesday, November 19, for our circular economy deep dive here in Kingsport, Tennessee. We are currently working through alternatives, and we'll let when we've decided on a path forward.

還有一件事。在我們昨晚發布資料後，我意識到我們選擇的在田納西州金斯波特進行循環經濟深度探討的日期（11 月 19 日星期二）存在衝突。我們目前正在研究替代方案，一旦確定了前進的道路，我們就會公佈。

With that, we are now ready for questions. Chiach, please starting with our first question.

現在，我們可以回答問題了。Chiach，請開始我們的第一個問題。

Patrick Cunningham, Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Patrick Cunningham。

Maybe just with -- just some questions on methanolysis. Maybe first, just clarification on feedstock preparation issues. Can you give a little more detail there? What equipment modifications did you have to take and how much downtime was there in 2Q and any expected downtime in 3Q?

也許只是——只是一些關於甲醇分解的問題。也許首先，只是澄清原料準備問題。能提供更詳細一點的資訊嗎？您必須進行哪些設備改造，第二季的停機時間是多少，第三季預計的停機時間是多少？

Sure. And good morning, everyone. About to talk about where we are with methanolysis plant. I mean, give a little context of the journey we've been on and then answer that specific feedstock question. We're very excited to be operational with the world's largest chemical recycling facility, and we've made tremendous project -- progress on this project and really showing what the world -- and what's possible in the world when it comes to recycled content and dealing with this challenge that we face.

當然。大家早安。讓我們來談談甲醇分解工廠的現況。我的意思是，先介紹我們經歷過的歷程，然後再回答那個具體的原料問題。我們非常高興世界上最大的化學回收設施能夠投入運營，我們在這個項目上取得了巨大的進展，真正向世界展示了在回收材料和應對我們面臨的這一挑戰方面世界是怎樣的可能性。

We are very excited that we're making on-spec plastic from the output of this facility. We've actually produced on-spec food-grade Tritan with 75% rDMT, and that's the most difficult product we have to make with the highest standards on clarity, a wide range of performance specs, and we're making these products with no materials or concern getting through the purification process. So very safe product from garbage, and that's an incredible accomplishment and a great job by our team and operating this plant and overcoming a series of challenges.

我們非常高興能夠利用該工廠的產品製造出符合規格的塑膠。實際上，我們已經生產出了符合規格的、含有 75% rDMT 的食品級 Tritan，這是我們必須生產的最困難的產品，它具有最高的透明度標準和廣泛的性能規格，而且我們在生產這些產品時無需擔心任何材料或擔心淨化過程。所以說，用垃圾生產出來的產品是非常安全的，這是一個令人難以置信的成就，我們的團隊在運作這個工廠並克服了一系列挑戰後，做出了偉大的工作。

We have had a lot of successes. As I said, we're making on-spec product now. We are doing all of this with hard-to-recycle waste, mechanical recyclers can't take back to food grade and send to landfill. We validate all of the unit ops and they can run at very high rates. We've had, as I mentioned, sustained rates in our prepared remarks of around 70% when you're running all the units together. And there's been one small mechanical thing limiting us getting to 100%, and we just recently made the change this week actually in fixing that one mechanical issue and are ramping up to full rates.

我們取得了許多成功。正如我所說，我們現在正在生產符合規格的產品。我們正在對難以回收的廢物進行所有這些處理，機械回收機無法將其回收到食品級並送往垃圾掩埋場。我們驗證了所有的單位操作並且它們可以以非常高的速率運行。正如我所提到的，當我們同時運行所有單元時，我們在準備好的發言中已經獲得了大約 70% 的持續率。但有一個小機械問題限制了我們達到 100% 的效率，我們本週剛解決了這個機械問題，並且正在逐步達到全效率。

We have made a lot of progress on improving the mechanical reliability issues that we were facing in the startup of the process that we shared with you in the first quarter call. So when we took a variety of corrective actions on the early failures around instrumentation, valves, routine equipment, especially pumps that has been effective and we've seen much higher reliability across the plant.

我們在改善第一季電話會議中與您分享的流程啟動過程中所面臨的機械可靠性問題方面取得了很大進展。因此，當我們針對儀表、閥門、常規設備（尤其是泵浦）的早期故障採取各種糾正措施時，這些措施是有效的，並且我們看到整個工廠的可靠性大大提高。

So as you said, the next step, as we're now moving to higher rates and a broader set of hard-to-recycle feedstock, we encountered some plugging issues. So to be clear from the beginning of this process, we've been using hard-to-recycle material that can't be made back into food-grade bottles mechanically, true to our strategy of dealing with this waste that doesn't have an alternative life, but we've been broadening that spectrum of different types of HTR recently, and we encountered some plugging issues in the front of the plants.

所以正如你所說，下一步，隨著我們轉向更高的速率和更廣泛的難以回收的原料，我們遇到了一些堵塞問題。因此，從這個過程開始就明確的是，我們一直在使用難以回收的材料，這些材料無法通過機械方式重新製成食品級瓶子，這符合我們處理這些無法替代生命的廢物的策略，但最近我們一直在擴大不同類型的 HTR 的範圍，並且在工廠前部遇到了一些堵塞問題。

I want to be clear that this is not about chemical impurities. It's not about process chemistry. It took us a few weeks to really understand what was going on, but we realized that it was in the feedstock preparation and some of the fitness for use aspects of a few sources of material.

我想明確指出的是，這與化學雜質無關。這與製程化學無關。我們花了幾個星期才真正明白髮生了什麼，但我們意識到問題出在原料準備和一些材料來源的適用性。

Fortunately, the issues were relatively straightforward to address once we understood them, which just involves optimizing, the feedstock form that we're using and dealing with some of the non-polymer waste that was in a few select sources of feedstock. So we've now implemented all those changes. We're ramping up, as I said, with the change also run at full rates and are confident all these changes will be effective and it will be running very hard with the facility as we go through Q3 and Q4.

幸運的是，一旦我們了解了這些問題，解決起來就相對簡單了，只需優化我們使用的原料形式，並處理少數原料來源中的非聚合物廢物。因此我們現在已經實施了所有這些變革。正如我所說的，我們正在加緊努力，全速運行這些變革，並相信所有這些變革都將有效，而且在我們進入第三季度和第四季度時，這些變革將會與設施一起努力運作。

The thing I would note is this has been a journey. This is incredibly complex plan to take garbage and turn it into it clear on-spec polymer that doesn't have any materials or concern that can exist in that waste feedstock. So we've made a lot of investments in purification and how to manage all these different feedstocks. And we've learned a lot over the last five months, six months of startup that I think is a huge competitive advantage for us. And frankly, there's a lot of strategic intellectual property we are gathering through this process.

我想指出的是，這是一段旅程。這是一個非常複雜的計劃，將垃圾轉化為符合規格的透明聚合物，其中不含有廢物原料中可能存在的任何材料或問題。因此，我們在淨化和如何管理所有這些不同原料方面進行了大量投資。在過去五、六個月的創業過程中，我們學到了很多東西，我認為這對我們來說是一個巨大的競爭優勢。坦白說，我們透過這個過程收集了大量戰略智慧財產權。

As I look back on it, I just can't reinforce enough the power and success of our team and enabling us to have this success. I can't even imagine trying to build these kinds of technologies and plants without the depth of technical expertise and the scale we have to throw at these challenges. So a great shout-out to the team in overcoming these things. We're feeling very good about how we're moving forward and excited to serve customers as we ramp up volumes in the back half of the year.

當我回顧這一切時，我無法充分肯定我們團隊的力量和成功以及我們所取得的成功。我甚至無法想像，如果沒有深厚的技術專業知識和應對這些挑戰的規模，我們將如何嘗試建立這類技術和工廠。因此，我們要向克服這些困難的團隊致以最崇高的敬意。我們對我們的前進感到非常高興，並且很高興在下半年增加銷售的同時為客戶提供服務。

Great. Thank you so much for the detail there.

偉大的。非常感謝您提供的詳細資訊。

And then maybe just one quick one. Just squaring the current macro environment and maybe some of the comments you made on inflationary pressures leading to slower ramp-up of Renew. Why is now the right time to move forward with the Tritan expansion?

然後可能只需要一個快速的。只是針對當前的宏觀環境以及您所說的通膨壓力導致 Renew 成長放緩的一些評論。為什麼現在是推動 Tritan 擴張的最佳時機？

Yeah, good question. So when you look at where we are with the Tritan market, a lot of that goes in consumer durables as everyone I think in the industry has called out that market has been weak and continues to be weak, but we did see a significant amount of return in volume with the end of destocking. So huge amount of the hit that we took in '23 was associated with destocking that volumes come back and the very high margins that go with it are certainly very helpful this year and will be going forward. We also continue to have a lot of wins just on the traditional value proposition of Tritan.

是的，好問題。因此，當您觀察 Tritan 市場的現狀時，會發現很多 Tritan 都流入了耐用消費品領域，因為我認為業內每個人都指出，該市場一直很疲軟並且會持續疲軟，但隨著去庫存化的結束，我們確實看到銷量大幅回升。我們在 23 年遭受的巨大打擊與去庫存有關，而產量的回升以及隨之而來的非常高的利潤率無疑對今年非常有幫助，而且未來也會如此。我們也繼續在 Tritan 的傳統價值主張上取得許多勝利。

So when you look at the compelling attributes of its heat resistance, it's chemical resistance, it's clarity; it's being a safe product that's BPA free. We've always had a lot of volume wins and applications that has driven tremendous growth in this product area for over a decade and that the engine is back in gear this year. We're winning on those value propositions, a variety of places on top of the end of destocking that's giving us good momentum.

所以當你看到它的耐熱性、耐化學性、透明度等引人注目的特性時；它是一種不含 BPA 的安全產品。十多年來，我們一直擁有大量的大量訂單和應用，推動了該產品領域的巨大成長，而今年這引擎又重新運作起來。我們在這些價值主張上取得了勝利，在去庫存化的結束等各個方面都給了我們良好的發展勢頭。

And then on top of that, we're now layering on recycled content and for a lot of brands that's really important. We have a lot of customers that have been with us for a long time that are using this recycled content claim as a way to enhance their product offering or drive new volume growth like P&G, Nalgene, Camelbak, LVMH, L'Oréal, Estee Lauder et cetera. You've seen the icons chart of all the customers we've had for using in one form or another.

除此之外，我們現在還在層層推廣回收材料，對許多品牌來說，這真的很重要。我們有許多長期合作的客戶，他們利用這種再生材料聲明來增強其產品供應或推動新的銷售成長，例如寶潔、Nalgene、Camelbak、LVMH、歐萊雅、雅詩蘭黛等。您已經看到了我們以某種形式使用的所有客戶的圖標圖表。

And then we've -- what's really exciting is also opening up new markets for us to serve as that wouldn't have originally been available for our value proposition. This is not a cheap polymer so you really have to have a compelling value proposition. And now you have people like Black & Decker doing a trial run. As we told you about in tools and seeing that go very well with recycled content and expanding to a broader product line or deSter, which is the leading supplier of housewares for foodservice type products for airlines and foodservice and them go into this product with the recycled content claims.

然後，我們——真正令人興奮的是，我們也開闢了新的市場，因為這些市場最初是不適用於我們的價值主張的。這不是一種廉價的聚合物，所以你必須有一個令人信服的價值主張。現在有像 Black & Decker 這樣的公司進行試運行。正如我們在工具中告訴您的那樣，我們看到它與再生內容配合得非常好，並擴展到更廣泛的產品線或 deSter，它是航空公司和餐飲服務食品服務類型產品的家庭用品的領先供應商，並且他們在該產品中聲稱含有再生內容。

So lots of volume engagement. Customers are paying the premiums that we expect to make a return on this investment that we've made here in Kingsport. And so as we looked at the volume build this year and as we go into next year, we see the need for this additional capacity. So we don't short the market, right? So we're moving to get that product at that line -- online in the third quarter of next year as a way to keep on growing our business. So we feel good about it. Certainly, it's a tough economic time, but when the market recovers, that will just be additional volume we have to serve so we feel like this is the right time.

因此有大量的參與。客戶支付的保費是我們期望在金斯波特的投資獲得回報。因此，當我們回顧今年以及明年的產量成長時，我們發現需要增加產能。所以我們不會做空市場，對嗎？因此，我們將在明年第三季將該產品投入線上銷售，以繼續發展我們的業務。因此我們對此感覺很好。當然，現在是經濟困難時期，但當市場復甦時，我們需要提供額外的服務，因此我們覺得現在是正確的時機。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特（Josh Spector）

A quick follow-up on the prior set of questions. Did you say that you're now running back at higher rates of methanolysis, so the issue is resolved or is that yet to be determined?

對前面的一組問題進行快速跟進。您是否說過，您現在正在以更高的甲醇分解速率運行，所以問題已解決，還是仍有待確定？

We're actually in the process of ramping back up to higher rates. We -- that small mechanical change we made in the middle of the plant that was limiting rates. We just implemented and we're ramping up towards those higher rates right now so not there yet.

事實上，我們正​​處於重新提高利率的過程中。我們——我們在工廠中部所做的那個小小的機械改變限制了速率。我們剛剛實施，目前正在逐步提高利率，所以還沒有達到目標。

Okay, thanks for that.

好的，謝謝。

And just another point around methanolysis and specifically your comment around Tritan Renew and some slower adoption. You referred to inflation being a factor. I was curious is that at the customer level you're talking about consumer buying of higher-priced goods or is that on their spending and perhaps any comments or read through on a willingness to buy a higher priced feedstock for their applications.

關於甲醇分解的另一點，特別是您對 Tritan Renew 和一些較慢採用的評論。您提到通貨膨脹是一個因素。我很好奇的是，在客戶層面，您談論的是消費者購買高價商品，還是他們的支出，以及任何評論或閱讀是否願意為他們的應用購買高價原料。

So in the -- I'm not going to repeat all the answer I just gave you, but we have a lot of customers, obviously out there in the durable space as well as packaging, cosmetics that are very interested and committed to using Tritan. They were buying it last year at certain premiums, are continuing to buy this year and we're accessing new markets so the demand out there is real.

因此——我不會重複我剛才給你的所有答案，但是我們有很多客戶，顯然在耐用品領域以及包裝、化妝品領域，他們對使用 Tritan 非常感興趣並致力於使用。他們去年以一定的溢價購買，今年仍在繼續購買，而且我們正在進入新的市場，因此那裡的需求是真實存在的。

The issue we face that I think everyone in the industry faces right now is that it's a really tough economic environment. We have some version of stagflation, right? We have inflation still impacting consumers and demand being quite weak and many discretionary markets and durables is very connected to B&C. So when you see all that challenge, that's very real. And its duration, it's not just demand is weak, it's been weak for over two years now.

我認為，我們所面臨的問題，也是業界每個人目前面臨的問題，是極為嚴峻的經濟環境。我們正面臨某種形式的滯脹，對嗎？通貨膨脹仍影響消費者，需求相當疲軟，許多非必需品市場和耐用品與 B&C 密切相關。所以當你看到所有這些挑戰時，你會發現這是非常真實的。從持續時間來看，不僅是需求疲軟，而且這種疲軟已經持續了兩年多。

And so that weighs on companies and their economics. So while they're very committed, we haven't seen anyone cancel a program. They're also focused on managing their cost structure like everyone is right now. And so the rate at which they're ramping of volume on some of the programs that we've won with these customers is going a bit slower than we thought.

這會給公司及其經濟帶來壓力。因此，儘管他們非常堅定，但我們還沒有看到有人取消任何項目。他們也像現在其他人一樣專注於管理成本結構。因此，他們在我們贏得這些客戶的一些項目上增加數量的速度比我們想像的要慢一些。

To be clear, that's a modest part of the overall adjustment we made in the $75 million of EBITDA incremental to last year, down to $50 million. More than two-thirds of that adjustment is the cost conversation we just had about run rates in the second quarter as we work through some different issues. But there is a modest adjustment we've made in our expectations around volume ramp.

需要明確的是，這只是我們對去年 EBITDA 增量 7,500 萬美元至 5,000 萬美元進行的整體調整的一小部分。超過三分之二的調整是我們在解決一些不同問題時剛剛討論的第二季度運行率的成本調整。但我們對銷量成長的預期做了適度調整。

I don't think it has any impact on next year. When we look at the number of wins we're having in different applications in the fact that at least it's -- the end market is now stable and destocking is behind us. Companies are now looking for ways to grow and create their own growth, just like we are trying to create our own growth with better value propositions to the marketplace.

我認為這對明年不會有任何影響。當我們看到在不同應用中獲得的勝利數量時，事實是至少終端市場現在已經穩定，去庫存已經過去。公司現在正在尋找成長和創造自身成長的方式，就像我們試圖透過向市場提供更好的價值主張來創造自己的成長一樣。

The brands are now switching to thinking about how do they do that as well. And so I think those collaborations will be there. So we still feel like we're on track to go from our incremental $50 million of EBITDA this year to a run rate of $150 million of EBITDA by the end of next year. Otherwise, we wouldn't be starting the -- completing the Tritan line if we didn't see that volume coming.

各品牌現在也開始思考如何做到這一點。所以我認為這些合作將會存在。因此，我們仍然覺得，我們預計將從今年 5,000 萬美元的增量 EBITDA 增至明年年底 1.5 億美元的 EBITDA 運行率。否則，如果我們沒有預見到該數量的成長，我們就不會開始完成 Tritan 產品線。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

米奇 (Frank Mitsch)，鋤研究機構。

Good morning and congrats on a 2Q beat, which Mark does beg the question. You narrowed the range for 2024, but maintained the midpoint of the guide. I was just curious, given the upside in 2Q, was there a thought to possibly raising the midpoint and what may have been arguing against that?

早安，恭喜您在第二季取得超出預期的成績，馬克確實提出了這個問題。您縮小了 2024 年的範圍，但保持了指南的中點。我只是好奇，考慮到第二季的上行空間，是否有可能考慮提高中間點，以及可能反對提高中間點的理由是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Frank, good morning and thank you.

弗蘭克，早上好，謝謝你。

As we think about the guidance, obviously, we focused on keeping the midpoint at the guide of what we had to start the year. Also, at the segment level, you saw some modest improvements in the AFP midpoint as well as the pinpoint the decline in AM as Mark's already highlighted around our view of the benefits of methanolysis and the ramp there.

當我們考慮指導時，顯然，我們專注於將中點保持在年初的指導水準上。此外，在細分層面，您會看到 AFP 中點有一些適度的改善，同時 AM 也有所下降，正如 Mark 已經強調的那樣，圍繞著我們對甲醇分解的好處和那裡的上升的看法。

So as we think about it, we're driving strong growth year over year 20%. Narrowing the range we think was appropriate at this point in time. As we started the year, there's no significant primary demand increasing in the second year. We're doing well with driving our own growth. And we think, again, as we enter the second half, we're doing it from a strong position, and it's the factors of the $0.15 beat in Q2 being offset by reduction in our methanolysis expectations.

因此，正如我們所想，我們正在實現同比增長 20% 的強勁增長。縮小我們認為此時合適的範圍。正如我們今年年初所見，第二年的主要需求並沒有顯著增加。我們在推動自身成長方面做得很好。而且我們認為，隨著我們進入下半年，我們將處於有利地位，而第二季度超出預期 0.15 美元的因素被甲醇分解預期的降低所抵消。

Thanks so much for that, Willie. Can you talk about the factors that will drive you towards the low end or versus the high end of the full-year guide?

非常感謝，威利。您能否談談導致您達到全年指導價低端或高端的因素？

Yes so when you think about the variables on that, Frank, the biggest factor is demand. That's true for the impacts we had last year through having a good results in '21, '22. And so it's a macroeconomic question around just where does demand trend. I think we went out at the beginning of the year with a very neutral approach about end markets being similar to last year from an end market point of view, but benefiting from destocking. It seems to be playing out as we expected at this stage.

是的，所以當你考慮相關變數時，弗蘭克，最大的因素就是需求。這對於我們去年在 21、22 年取得的良好成績所產生的影響是正確的。所以這是一個宏觀經濟問題，圍繞著需求趨勢如何。我認為我們在年初採取了非常中立的態度，從終端市場的角度來看，終端市場與去年類似，但受益於去庫存。目前看來，一切正如我們所預期的。

so if the economy gets better, that will be upside. If the economy gets worse, obviously, there'll be some risk within the range that we've given you but I think that's the main factor. I mean, we feel good about our price management and feel confident in our commercial excellence to maintain our share price cost relationships across our specialties.

因此，如果經濟好轉，那將是一件好事。如果經濟惡化，顯然，在我們給出的範圍內會存在一些風險，但我認為這是主要因素。我的意思是，我們對我們的價格管理感到滿意，並對我們的商業卓越性充滿信心，能夠維持我們各個專業領域的股價成本關係。

Obviously, there's certain amount of spread and predictability in olefins and acetyl where you could get some volatility that's in the CI sector. Cost structure, we are very much on track and manage our costs. So the element that's material is really about the economy. We feel good about how we're creating a lot of our own growth this year with all the application wins that we've had in the traditional specialty model plus the growth we expect in the circular platform.

顯然，烯烴和乙醯基具有一定程度的擴散和可預測性，CI 領域可能會出現一些波動。成本結構方面，我們非常按計劃進行並管理我們的成本。因此，重要的因素實際上與經濟有關。我們對今年我們自身的成長感到非常高興，我們在傳統專業模式下取得的所有應用程式勝利以及我們在循環平台上預期的成長都創造了巨大的成長。

Great. So just to be clear, the midpoint of the guide assumes absolutely no change from the economic activity as we stand here today.

偉大的。因此，需要明確的是，該指南的中間點假設我們今天的經濟活動絕對不會有任何變化。

That's correct. We're assuming to be clear in consumer discretionary markets whether it's autos, B&C, durables. We're assuming that there's no improvement in the end-market demand relative to last year. And that's been true how we've built our forecast every quarter.

沒錯。我們假設非必需消費品市場是汽車、B&C 還是耐用品。我們假設終端市場需求與去年相比沒有任何改善。我們每季的預測都是如此。

The stable markets, we do have a little bit of modest growth, 2%, 3% in there that we've already seen in the first half of the year and we expect that to continue in the second half year of the year. Those markets are like ag in its normal cycle and pattern, personal care, water treatment, those more special -- stable market, which is about half of our revenue.

在穩定的市場中，我們確實實現了一點適度的成長，大概是2%到3%，這是我們在上半年看到的，我們預計這種成長將在下半年繼續。這些市場就像農業一樣，處於正常的週期和模式，個人護理，水處理，這些更特殊 - 穩定的市場，約占我們收入的一半。

Half of our revenue has modest growth and half of our revenue has no end market growth but we have completely confirmed that the theory of a lack of destocking adds a lot of volume back is very true, right? We told you that we had a $450 million hit in variable margin last year from '22 to '23 when volume and mix declined. And part of our guidance, as we said about $150 million of that, call it, a third would come back as a lack of destocking. And we very much have seen that in the first half and see that in the order books in 3Q. So that's logic is playing out and that's where we've built our midpoint of our guide.

我們的一半收入都有適度成長，另一半收入沒有終端市場成長，但我們已經完全證實，缺乏去庫存會增加大量成交量的理論是非常正確的，對嗎？我們告訴過您，去年從 22 年到 23 年，由於銷售量和產品組合下降，我們的可變利潤率損失了 4.5 億美元。正如我們之前所說，我們的指導意見中約有 1.5 億美元，也就是三分之一將因去庫存不足而回流。我們在上半年已經看到這一點，並且在第三季的訂單中也看到了這一點。這就是邏輯的體現，也是我們建立指南的中點。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

I was hoping you could clarify what's going on in the acetyl chain. In that, you talked about higher planned maintenance of $50 million related to shutdown in the acetyl chain. And half of that is the acetyl, which was $25 million. Is that in the third quarter or the fourth quarter? You talked about unfavorable price costs in acetyls. What's that about? Does that have to do with the divestiture or not? And forgive me, is the divestiture already done or when does the divestiture close?

我希望您能闡明乙醯鏈中發生的情況。其中，您談到了與乙醯鏈關閉相關的 5000 萬美元更高的計劃維護費用。其中一半是乙醯，價值 2500 萬美元。那是在第三季還是第四季？您談到了乙醯基的不利價格成本。那是關於什麼的？這跟資產剝離有關係嗎？請原諒，剝離已經完成嗎？

Yeah, Jeff. Happy to clarify.

是的，傑夫。很高興澄清。

So as we think about the second half versus first half higher planned shutdowns, Q3 is primarily in our acetyl cellulosics stream which is about half and then in Q3 and then in Q4 would be our polymer turnaround. And again, that represents about half.

因此，當我們考慮下半年與上半年相比更高的計劃停產時，第三季度主要是我們的乙醯纖維素流，約佔一半，然後在第三季度和第四季度將是我們的聚合物週轉。再次強調，這約佔一半。

Yes, the transaction has closed last year also, so that impact is not in our guidance. That's a headwind as we think about in our chemical intermediates business. The combination of I'll call it the Texas City divestiture as well as the key customer shutdown that we've highlighted. It was roughly $30 million headwind on a year-over-year basis.

是的，該交易去年也已完成，因此該影響不在我們的指導範圍內。當我們考慮化學中間體業務時，這是一個阻力。我將其稱為德克薩斯城資產剝離以及我們強調的關鍵客戶關閉的結合。與去年同期相比，逆風約為 3,000 萬美元。

So that's on the cost side and the divestiture side, Jeff. On the market side, there's two dynamics going on. One is the acetyl margins are lower this year and continue to be challenged from a market point of view. And then the second part is as we divested the acetyl business, we had to shift our business model a bit and how we're taking our acid product to market. And so there's just some readjustments in logistics costs and how we manage our acetyl output out of Kingsport when we no longer have that plant down in Texas and how we are working in the market.

傑夫，這是成本方面和資產剝離的問題。市場方面，有兩種動態。一是今年乙醯利潤率較低，從市場角度來看持續面臨挑戰。第二部分是，當我們剝離乙醯基業務時，我們不得不稍微改變我們的商業模式以及我們如何將我們的酸產品推向市場。因此，當我們不再擁有德克薩斯州的工廠時，我們會對物流成本、如何管理金斯波特的乙醯產量以及我們如何在市場上運作進行一些調整。

So those two things are some hits to the economics. The spread will obviously come back one day. And the -- a lot of these onetime logistics costs and reconfiguring supply chains to serve customers will also be a bit of a modest tailwind for next year or two as we line them out.

這兩件事對經濟造成了一些打擊。顯然，有一天，這種蔓延還會再次發生。而且——許多這些一次性的物流成本和重新配置供應鏈以服務客戶的成本，在我們將其列出時，也將在未來一兩年內帶來一點小小的順風。

So those are the combined factors that's going on in that acetyl business. I would note that we are predominately acetic acid -- I'm sorry, acetic anhydride in our production. So that's the market you should be paying more attention to for us relative to the acetic acid market than some other companies producing to. And we feel good about how that market will be a tailwind next year relative to this year.

這些就是乙醯基業務中發生的綜合因素。我要指出的是，我們主要生產乙酸——對不起，是乙酸酐。因此，相對於其他生產醋酸的公司而言，我們應該更關注這個市場。我們對於明年市場相對於今年而言將會呈現順風態勢感到樂觀。

Okay, you have an other segment that's now losing a couple of hundred million dollars a year roughly and that line used to lose $50 million a year. Is two hund -- can you talk about the difference between $50 million in the old days and $200 million in the new days and does that just extend out in time? Is the normal run rate $200 million? And then going back to acetyls, what's the total acetyl year over year penalty?

好的，另一個部門現在每年大約虧損幾億美元，而該生產線過去每年虧損 5,000 萬美元。是兩百人——你能談談過去的 5000 萬美元和現在的 2 億美元之間的區別嗎？正常運作費用是 2 億美元嗎？然後回到乙醯基，乙醯基的年總損失是多少？

Okay, Jeff, on your question of other, obviously, as we talked about from '22 to '23, one of the major resets and that was with regards to pension and that being roughly a $100 million headwind. So I would highlight that as one of the accounting outcomes of higher interest rates. Also, as we've increased in the back half of '23, the preproduction and the startup costs regarding our methanolysis and circular platforms. You saw that increase, and that's more connected to across the project timing in our progression through those.

好的，傑夫，關於你的其他問題，顯然，正如我們所討論的，從 22 年到 23 年，其中一個重大的重置是關於養老金的，大約是 1 億美元的逆風。因此，我要強調，這是提高利率的會計結果之一。此外，隨著 23 年下半年我們甲醇分解和循環平台的預生產和啟動成本的增加。您看到了這種成長，這與我們在整個專案過程中的進度時間表更加相關。

As you saw here in Q2, you saw roughly almost $30 million reduction in the expenditures in other. And that is with our Kingsport methanolysis plant coming online and going from preproduction into producing inventory.

正如您在第二季度看到的，其他方面的支出減少了約 3000 萬美元。這就是我們的金斯波特甲醇分解工廠投入運作並從預生產轉為生產庫存的過程。

So as I think about it over time, obviously, the factors matter and as we see interest rates decline, that could be a tailwind into the future. So I wouldn't say $200 million is the run rate. It's just with the current, I'll call it, macro situation as well as us progressing successfully projects through the pipeline. And now you'll see those results in advanced materials. And that's also how you will see some of our cellulosic products as well as we continue to invest there. Those will then turn into the businesses in the future, but I would say $200 million or less in the current macro environment.

因此，當我從長遠角度考慮這個問題時，顯然這些因素很重要，而且隨著我們看到利率下降，這可能是未來的順風。因此我不會說 2 億美元是運行率。這只是當前的宏觀形勢，以及我們順利推進管道專案的情況。現在您將在先進材料中看到這些成果。這也是您將看到我們的一些纖維素產品以及我們繼續在那裡投資的方式。這些將來會轉化為業務，但我認為在當前的宏觀環境下，金額會是 2 億美元或更少。

And so in addition to just the preproduction expenses and efforts around the first plant, look into the engineering expense and project development expense around France project and Texas project. Those costs are in that segment. So that's been driving it. And we'd also note the pension costs are non-cash. So it's a headwind, but it's not a cash headwind.

因此，除了第一家工廠的預生產成本和努力之外，還要考慮法國專案和德州專案的工程費用和專案開發費用。這些成本都屬於那部分。這就是推動它發展的動力。我們也注意到退休金成本是非現金的。因此，這是一個逆風，但不是現金逆風。

Jeff, I didn't understand your acetyl question. Could you expand on your question just a bit?

傑夫，我不明白你的乙醯基問題。能稍微詳細說明一下您的問題嗎？

In other words, you've got some pressure and unfavorable price cost. You've got some shutdown costs. So if you look at year-over-year penalty that you're experiencing from the acetyl business and you sum that all up, what would that penalty be if you can do that this year?

換句話說，您面臨一些壓力和不利的價格成本。您會產生一些停工成本。因此，如果您看一下乙醯基業務所遭受的同比損失，並將其全部加起來，那麼如果今年可以做到這一點，那麼損失會是多少？

Jeff, I would highlight as we think about acetyls in whole I think it's the $30 million plus the increased logistics costs that Mark has highlighted. We're not going to be more specific on that at this point.

傑夫，我想強調的是，當我們考慮整個乙醯基時，我認為是 3000 萬美元加上馬克強調的增加的物流成本。目前我們不會就此進行更具體的說明。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyCorp.

阿列克謝·葉夫列莫夫（KeyCorp）。

In prepared remarks, you're saying that you demonstrated ability to run methanolysis at around 70% using a diverse feedstock slate. So I wanted to ask you what is your expectations for operating rates on average for the second half of this year?

在準備好的評論中，您說您展示了使用多樣化原料以大約 70％ 的速率進行甲醇分解的能力。所以我想問一下您對今年下半年平均開工率的期望是多少？

And also that 70% utilization, was it achieved on a feedstock slate that's representative of what you're going to be using for this plant in the long run?

另外，70% 的利用率是否基於代表長期為該工廠使用的原料基礎來實現的？

Yeah, great questions.

是的，很好的問題。

So we're not going to get into our specific operating strategy, but we certainly intend to run above 70%. This is a new plant, new technology and as we just discussed, a new set of feedstocks that vary significantly from one source to another, right? That's the significant difference in the circular economy versus the linear economy that's making products out of very consistent feedstock when you think about fossil feedstocks every day. So we have been using a wide range of different sources of hard-to-recycle material. Some are better quality than others.

因此，我們不會討論具體的營運策略，但我們肯定打算將這一比例提高到 70% 以上。這是一個新工廠、新技術，而且正如我們剛才討論的，新的原料集合在不同來源之間差異很大，對嗎？當你想到每天使用的化石原料時，這就是循環經濟與線性經濟之間的顯著區別，線性經濟使用非常一致的原料來生產產品。因此，我們一直在使用各種不同來源的難以回收的材料。有些品質比其他的更好。

When I talked about the 70%, that was running representative feedstock in what we think of -- what we call HTR, hard-to-recycle material. The limitations in run rate through really the first half of the year have been more mechanically related or these feedstock processing related issues about what we're putting in the plant that were easily addressed.

當我談到 70% 時，那是在我們所想的——我們稱之為 HTR，難以回收的材料中運行代表性原料。實際上，今年上半年運行率的限制更多是與機械有關，或者與我們在工廠中投入的原料加工相關的問題，這些問題很容易解決。

But when the plant, is it having some mechanical issues that we had to resolve, it runs really stably, right? We had this one issue about, once again, how to move some of the product from the middle of the plant to the back of the plant mechanically that took several improvements to address the last final improvement we implemented this week. And that should get us into the 90%-plus-range and how we can run the plant.

但是當工廠出現一些我們必須解決的機械問題時，它就能穩定運行，對嗎？我們再次遇到了這個問題，如何將部分產品從工廠中部機械地移動到工廠後部，這需要進行幾次改進才能解決我們本週實施的最後一次改進。這應該可以使我們進入 90% 以上的範圍，並且我們也可以正常運作工廠。

But it's -- there are going to be times it's down for another issue that pops up, and we have a planned shutdown for some normal maintenance. But we feel like the forecast that we've built has us running much better in the back half than the first half well in excess of customer demand. So we're confident we can serve customers with the ramp up in the volumes with the actions that we've taken.

但是，有時它會因為出現另一個問題而停機，我們會計劃停機進行一些正常維護。但我們覺得，根據我們所製定的預測，我們下半年的運作情況比上半年好得多，遠遠超出了客戶的需求。因此，我們有信心透過採取的行動為客戶提供服務，從而提高銷售量。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

And on the marketing site, have you been selling Tritan Renew mostly to customers who are already buying Tritan, or has this broadened your customer base for Tritan using the recycled version?

在行銷網站上，你們主要向已經購買 Tritan 的客戶銷售 Tritan Renew 嗎，還是這擴大了使用再生版 Tritan 的客戶群？

Yeah, it's a mix of both. So we certainly have new loyal customers who have been buying Tritan for a long time that see a lot of value in the recycled content value proposition. But there's also -- we've been actually surprised by the number of application wins we're having with new customers and new end markets.

是的，兩者兼具。因此，我們確實擁有了新的忠實客戶，他們長期購買Tritan，並且非常重視再生材料的價值主張。但實際上，我們對在新的客戶和新的終端市場中獲得的應用數量感到驚訝。

So if you ask me from where our plan was in January to where we are today, we're actually growing volume in new wins and new customers more than I thought and the upgrade of recycled content of some existing volumes is a bit slower for the economic reasons I mentioned. So we feel good about how we're broadening our customer base and our actual market base and where we can sell as we go into next year.

因此，如果您問我，從我們一月份的計劃到現在的計劃，我們的新訂單和新客戶數量實際上比我想像的要多，而且由於我提到的經濟原因，一些現有訂單的回收內容的升級速度有點慢。因此，我們對如何擴大我們的客戶群和實際市場基礎以及明年的銷售範圍感到滿意。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, just on the maintenance, can you remind us if this is a normal year for planned maintenance and how does it look for 2025? Could 2025 be lower maintenance expenses versus 2024?

馬克，僅就維護而言，您能否提醒我們今年是否是計劃維護的正常年份，以及 2025 年的情況如何？2025 年的維修費用會比 2024 年更低嗎？

Good morning, David.

早安，大衛。

Yeah, I would say that this year is a normal level of maintenance. Obviously, we go through each of our streams. We talked about the polymers turnaround, the acetyls, and then -- and next year we will also have olefins turnaround in addition to that with our crackers. But at an overall expense level, I would say this year is normal. There could be a little bit of favorability on a year-over-year basis.

是的，我想說今年的維護水準是正常的。顯然，我們會經歷每一個流程。我們討論了聚合物的轉變、乙醯基，然後──明年，除了裂解裝置之外，我們還將實現烯烴的轉變。但從整體支出水準來看，我認為今年是正常的。與去年同期相比，可能會有一些有利的情況。

Additionally, in the fourth quarter (multiple speakers) David, I would say, as we have the polymer shutdown here in Q4, we've got the additional--

此外，在第四季度（多位發言人）戴維，我想說，由於我們在第四季度關閉了聚合物生產，我們獲得了額外的——

So David, as you think about methanolysis, the cost this year from a maintenance point of view is extraordinarily high, right, as we're starting up the plant. So I'd say in the normal assets, maintenance will be similar to next year to this year. But when it comes to methanolysis, we'll have a tailwind next year because we don't have all the extraordinary pre-production expenses, all the maintenance and fixing all the things in the plant as we're starting it up. So that'll be a tailwind. I mean, that's all embedded in our incremental EBITDA conversation when we talk about circular, but for sure that part's going to be a tailwind next year. The rest I'd call it neutral.

所以大衛，當你考慮甲醇分解時，從維護的角度來看，今年的成本非常高，因為我們正在啟動工廠。所以我想說，在正常資產方面，維護將與明年和今年類似。但就甲醇分解而言，我們明年將擁有順風，因為我們沒有所有的額外預生產費用，也沒有啟動工廠時的所有維護和修理費用。所以這將是一個順風。我的意思是，當我們談論循環時，這一切都包含在我們增量 EBITDA 對話中，但可以肯定的是，這部分明年將成為順風。其餘部分我稱之為中性。

Got it.

知道了。

And just two things, Mark, in methanolysis. The $50 million this year of EBITDA, can you break out between advanced materials and other? And just in the France project, reading the prepared comments doesn't seem like there was much progress the last three months. Can you provide any more color on what's happening with that project?

馬克，甲醇分解中只有兩件事。今年5000萬美元的EBITDA，能在先進材料和其他之間突圍嗎？而且僅在法國計畫中，閱讀準備好的評論似乎過去三個月沒有取得太大進展。能否詳細介紹一下該專案的進度？

David, on the $50 million of incremental EBITDA, what I would say is in Q1 we saw -- we missed our guidance by about $10 million. So the $10 million of the decline was in other, and then $15 million, the remainder was in advanced materials.

大衛，關於 5000 萬美元的增量 EBITDA，我想說的是，我們在第一季度看到——我們比預期少了約 1000 萬美元。因此，下降的 1000 萬美元是其他方面的，其餘 1500 萬美元是先進材料方面的。

Yeah, when it comes to the next two projects, first we feel great about the Texas project. We're really proud to have Pepsi as such a large contracted and committed partner with that project. And that combined with the DOE grant helping offset capital inflation makes us feel great about that project. And we really think that project is going to be a great example of scalability of this platform where we can solve a plastic waste problem, use green technologies on the energy side to get the carbon footprint down up to 90%. And so we're really helping customers with Scope 3 as well as on their mission as well as solving this plastic waste problem.

是的，說到接下來的兩個項目，首先我們對德克薩斯項目感到非常滿意。我們非常榮幸百事可樂能成為該計畫如此大規模的簽約和忠誠的合作夥伴。再加上美國能源部的撥款幫助抵消了資本通膨，我們對該計畫感到非常滿意。我們確實認為該項目將成為該平台可擴展性的一個很好的例子，我們可以解決塑膠廢物問題，在能源方面使用綠色技術將碳足跡減少 90%。因此，我們確實在幫助客戶解決範圍 3 以及他們的使命以及解決塑膠廢棄物問題。

The French project, as we said before in the first quarter call, is moving along a bit slower than we originally expected. It's predominantly due to these customer contract conversations that we've had being slower than what we had expected originally. And then, of course, we're still working on the capital inflation on that project too and trying to lower the capital costs. We do have incentives in Europe too, but not quite at the same size as the IRA. So it's really about those customer contract discussions and it's similar to the conversation we just had.

正如我們在第一季電話會議上所說，法國計畫的進展比我們最初預期的要慢一些。這主要是由於這些客戶合約對話導致我們的進展比最初預期的要慢。當然，我們仍在努力解決該項目的資本通膨問題，並試圖降低資本成本。我們在歐洲也確實有誘因，但規模不如愛爾蘭共和軍那麼大。所以這其實是關於那些客戶合約的討論，它與我們剛才的對話類似。

All the brands are very committed to recycling content goal, right? And dealing with the plastic waste crisis, as well as we are a significant contributor helping them lower their Scope 3 carbon emissions in Europe. That's equally, if not, more important win in most conversations with brands when you come down to -- continue to have very high recyclability goals, which by the way means the product is recyclable but you can't actually keep that status for your product unless it's actually recycled. So they also have to deliver high recycled content goals in order to deliver that value. So that's -- I don't think changed.

所有品牌都非常致力於回收內容目標，對嗎？在應對塑膠垃圾危機的同時，我們也為幫助他們降低歐洲範圍 3 碳排放做出了重要貢獻。當你與品牌進行大多數對話時，這同樣是（如果不是更重要的話）更重要的勝利——繼續設定非常高的可回收性目標，順便說一句，這意味著產品是可回收的，但除非它真正被回收，否則你實際上無法保持產品的這種狀態。因此，為了實現這一價值，他們也必須實現高回收內容目標。所以—我認為沒有改變。

They're not on track to hit their targets for 2025, partly because the economic situation has them moving a little bit slower, just like I explained with specialty customers where they're trying to manage costs in a difficult environment, partly because mechanical recycling isn't available to solve the problems. There isn't enough capacity to get to the targets that they have, especially in Europe, which starts for beverage bottles at 25% next year.

他們沒有按計劃實現2025年的目標，部分原因是經濟形勢使他們的行動稍微慢了一點，就像我向特殊客戶解釋的那樣，他們試圖在困難的環境中管理成本，部分原因是沒有機械回收來解決這些問題。他們沒有足夠的產能來實現既定目標，尤其是在歐洲，明年飲料瓶的產能將達到 25%。

And there's a lot of products and packages that they make that's not a clear water bottle and those opaque, colored, trays, etc different forms of PET. You can't -- in many of those, you cannot actually use mechanical recycling to actually make those products. So they've got a challenge on how they're going to actually get recycled content into some of those products.

他們生產的許多產品和包裝都不是透明水瓶，而是不透明的、有色的、托盤等不同形式的 PET。在許多情況下，你不能實際上使用機械回收來製造這些產品。因此，他們面臨的挑戰是如何將回收材料真正融入這些產品中。

So all that context is still very much intact and the conversations are still going on with all the customers. But you've got a market -- the PET market's at the bottom of the cycle right now, prices are incredibly low, economic times are tough, and so the regulations are a little unclear in Europe right now on what counts as recycled content and how that's going to work, that's causing the conversation to go slowly. But we fortunately don't see anyone dropping their engagement with us. It's just become slower in getting the contracts done.

因此，所有背景資訊仍然完整，與所有客戶的對話仍在繼續。但是你有一個市場——PET 市場現在正處於週期的底部，價格非常低，經濟形勢艱難，因此歐洲目前關於什麼算作再生材料以及如何運作的規定還不明確，這導致對話進展緩慢。但幸運的是，我們並沒有看到任何人放棄與我們的合作。完成合約的速度變得更慢了。

Michael Leithead, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的麥可‧萊特黑德 (Michael Leithead)。

Can you just speak to the reduction of CapEx a bit? I would have thought directionally that's still ramping up, not coming down as you move forward with Tritan, the Texas project. So is it a timing dynamic? Or can you just help refine that a bit?

能簡單談談資本支出的減少嗎？我原本以為，隨著德州 Tritan 計畫的推進，這一方向仍將處於上升趨勢，而不是下降趨勢。那麼這是一個時間動態嗎？或者你能幫忙稍微改進一下嗎？

Yes, Mike.

是的，麥克。

As Mark just highlighted, we're still working towards milestones on our circular projects, both in Longview and France. And France specifically, that's pushing the timelines out. So as we think about the CapEx required to achieve the growth, we've got the Kingsport project behind us here in first quarter of the year as we transitioned.

正如馬克剛才強調的那樣，我們仍然在努力實現朗維尤和法國循環計畫的里程碑。尤其是法國，這正在推遲時間表。因此，當我們考慮實現成長所需的資本支出時，我們在今年第一季就已經完成了金斯波特項目，這是我們轉型過程中的成果。

Also, as we highlighted, we're starting some of our other growth projects back up as we see the end of destocking and look forward with our innovation wins. So as we balance both of those out $650 million to $700 million, we think, is appropriate to achieve what we need to this year. And obviously, with that, we're not going to let cash sit on our balance sheet, and we increased our expectations for share repurchases for the full year to $300 million.

此外，正如我們所強調的，隨著去庫存階段的結束以及我們對創新勝利的期待，我們正在重新啟動一些其他成長項目。因此，當我們將這兩者平衡到 6.5 億至 7 億美元時，我們認為，這對於實現我們今年的目標是合適的。顯然，我們不會讓現金留在我們的資產負債表上，我們將全年股票回購預期提高到 3 億美元。

Great. That's helpful.

偉大的。這很有幫助。

And then can you speak more to what you're seeing in advanced interlayers today? I think you highlighted in the prepared remarks and the slides a bit. Just remind us how big that is relative to advanced materials? How you think about the growth rate there? And is it fair to assume that, that business is on average a bit higher margin than the overall segment there?

然後，您能否進一步談談您今天在高級夾層中看到的情況？我認為您在準備好的發言和幻燈片中強調了一些。請提醒我們一下，相對於先進材料來說，這有多大？您認為那裡的成長率如何？是否可以合理地假設，該業務的平均利潤率比那裡的整體業務利潤率高一點？

So the interlayers business is having a good year and delivering meaningful earnings growth relative to last year in a flat to slightly down auto market. So it's a great testament to our innovation strategy and delivering results as well as operational excellence in running our plants well.

因此，在汽車市場平穩或略有下滑的情況下，中間膜業務今年表現良好，與去年相比，獲利實現了有意義的成長。因此，這充分證明了我們的創新策略、成果以及工廠良好營運的卓越性。

So the earlier business is about a third of the revenue of the segment. And it's predominantly focused on auto, but it also has B&C in it, which is flat to last year. But on the auto side, we're seeing a lot of earnings growth as we're creating our own growth.

因此，早期業務約佔該部門收入的三分之一。該公司主要專注於汽車市場，但其中也包括 B＆C 業務，與去年持平。但在汽車方面，隨著我們自身成長的不斷創造，我們的獲利也大幅成長。

We're very much leveraged to two end markets, the luxury end market and the EV market is still growing better than the overall average auto build. So we're getting leverage out of that by being in the right market segments.

我們充分利用了兩個終端市場，豪華終端市場和電動車市場，其成長速度仍然快於整體汽車製造業。因此，我們透過進入正確的細分市場來獲得優勢。

And then within that, we're selling more and more premium products. As we highlighted in the prepared remarks, we've had a great story around HUD and multiple generations of that product that we've been offering to the marketplace in the future we're building for it. So that's being adopted for better security and safety driving reasons in the car. And so that has a lot of market upside.

然後，我們銷售越來越多的優質產品。正如我們在準備好的演講中所強調的那樣，我們在HUD方面有著精彩的故事，並且我們正在為未來向市場提供該產品的多代產品。因此，採用這項措施是為了提高汽車的安全性和駕駛安全性。因此，這具有很大的市場潛力。

Also, when you get to the EVs, as we said, there's about 3 times as much square meters of interlayer of laminated glass in an EV relative to an ICE car. And they're buying very high-performance products. They want to have a very technology-forward car in most EVs, especially in the luxury in the market where we're focused. And so, they want HUD. They've got solar control that they need to have. And so, all of that is driving high value at times a lot more square meters.

另外，正如我們所說，說到電動車，電動車的夾層玻璃夾層面積大約是內燃機汽車的 3 倍。他們購買的是性能非常高的產品。他們希望大多數電動車都擁有技術非常先進的汽車，特別是在我們關注的市場的豪華汽車中。因此，他們想要 HUD。他們已經掌握了所需的太陽能控制技術。所以，所有這些都會推動價值的提高，有時會帶來更多的平方公尺。

And even though EVs are not growing as much as I think many people expected, still growing better than the ICE market and giving us leverage. So you've had, for example, HUD, 20% up year over year in volume at very high margins. And we've had solar control up about 12% year over year. So these markets are growing fast in a market that's challenged. It's a great story.

儘管我認為電動車的成長速度不如許多人預期的那麼快，但它的成長速度仍然好於內燃機汽車市場，並且為我們帶來了優勢。以 HUD 為例，其銷量較去年同期成長了 20%，而且利潤率非常高。我們的太陽能控制量年增了約 12%。因此，這些市場在充滿挑戰的市場中正在快速成長。這是一個很棒的故事。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的達菲費雪 (Duffy Fischer)。

First question is just again around methanolysis. So my understanding was the long pole in the tent has always been the cleanup on the back end and getting the impurities out. So were you able to -- when you're running at 70%, were you able to prove out that technology so that, that no longer is an issue? Or you still have to push it harder or get the max complexity of the H2R feedstock higher before you can check that box and say that, that's a done deal?

第一個問題再次與甲醇分解有關。所以我的理解是帳篷裡的長桿一直都是用來清理後端並清除雜質的。那麼，當您的運作效率達到 70% 時，您是否能夠證明這項技術可以不再是個問題？或者您仍然需要更加努力或提高 H2R 原料的最大複雜性，然後才能選中該框並說這是一個已完成的交易？

Yes, Duffy, that's been the big huge pleasant surprise to this whole project is, you're correct. Unzipping the polymer is pretty straightforward on the front of the process, purification of all this variable set of impurities from garbage to make sure you had a high purity DMT output on the back end is where there's a lot of complexity. And that's worked incredibly well from the very beginning process technology and separating and isolating out the monomers that we want to use again and stripping out all the other impurities has worked really well across all the different HDR.

是的，達菲，這對整個項目來說是一個巨大的驚喜，你是對的。在流程的前端，解壓縮聚合物非常簡單，而從垃圾中淨化所有這些可變的雜質以確保在後端獲得高純度的 DMT 輸出則是非常複雜的地方。從一開始的製程技術就效果非常好，分離出我們想要再次使用的單體並去除所有其他雜質，在所有不同的 HDR 中效果都非常好。

The frustrating part is, a lot of construction areas and vendor equipment quality problems that we talked about that really caused a lot of mechanical start-up delays for us that had nothing to do with the process chemistry. They were easy to fix once you have the pump break you put a new pump.

令人沮喪的是，我們討論的許多施工區域和供應商設備品質問題確實導致了許多機械啟動延遲，而這些問題與製程化學無關。一旦泵壞了，換一個新的泵就很容易修理。

This feedstock issue that we've had recently, again it was about form factor. It was about a couple of suppliers having impurities that were really not supposed to be there that we've now identified. But the broad spectrum HRM we intend to use and the changes we've already made on how to prepare that material before we put it in the plant has addressed the recent plugging issues.

我們最近遇到的這個原料問題，同樣與形狀因子有關。事情的起因是，有幾家供應商的產品中含有我們現在已經確認不應該存在的雜質。但是，我們打算使用的廣譜 HRM 以及我們在將材料放入工廠之前對如何準備材料所做的更改已經解決了最近的堵塞問題。

So we actually feel great about the process chemistry. We just need to line out the mechanical operation of the plant, which is -- this is a very big plant. It's got a lot of complexity to it. And we probably should have expected more of this and we built our guide as we work through these challenges in this construction environment.

因此，我們對於這項製程化學反應感到非常滿意。我們只需要列出工廠的機械運作情況，這是一個非常大的工廠。它有非常多的複雜性。我們或許應該對此有更多的期待，我們在克服這種施工環境中的挑戰時建立了我們的指南。

Great. Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝。

And then just on the base business, two end markets you called out as doing better. One, coatings and the other one, ag. So on ag, where are you now on a run rate relative to when it started to fall off? Are you still well below that normalized level?

然後僅在基礎業務方面，您指出兩個終端市場表現更好。一個是塗料，一個是農業。那麼就農業而言，相對於農業開始下滑的時候，現在的運作率處於什麼水準？您是否仍遠低於該正常水平？

And then on coatings, what are you seeing there in volumes because your customers still seem to be putting up pretty weak numbers but your volumes seem to be stronger than that?

那麼就塗料而言，您在銷售方面看到了什麼，因為您的客戶似乎仍然提供相當疲軟的數字，但您的銷售似乎比這更強？

Yes. I don't know if our volumes are a lot stronger than that. I mean you've got to remember there's two components. There's this end-market demand discussion that we're all having. And I think we see the end-market demand situation similar to our customers on coatings, but you got to remember, there was a lot of destocking that those coatings customers did with us, right? And they completed that destocking. And so we benefited from that volume recovery in coatings, just like durables and everything else. So when you look at that, we're probably up high-single digits in volume in B&C, but I would attribute most of that to just a lack of destocking relative to last year.

是的。我不知道我們的銷量是否比這強得多。我的意思是你必須記住有兩個組成部分。我們正在進行有關終端市場需求的討論。我認為我們看到的終端市場需求情況與我們的客戶對塗料的需求情況類似，但你必須記住，那些塗料客戶與我們一起去掉了大量的庫存，對吧？他們完成了去庫存。因此，就像耐用品和其他所有產品一樣，我們也從塗料的銷售復甦中受益。所以當你看到這一點時，我們會發現 B&C 地區的交易量可能會成長高個位數，但我認為這主要是因為與去年相比缺乏去庫存。

The ag side of things, what I'd say is, there was a huge amount of destocking as was well documented by all the ag companies that certainly had an impact on us through last year. They resolved most of that destocking as we went through the first quarter. And by the time we were in the second quarter, I'd say we were that normal demand conditions, reconnected to demand, I think, is the phrase with destocking behind us, and we're having a normal ag season this year so far. There puts and takes to that but the products that we make, it's I would call it a normal ag season, so Q2 was good, Q3 will be softer.

就農業方面而言，我想說的是，所有農業公司都記錄了大量去庫存的情況，這無疑對我們產生了影響。在第一季度，他們已經解決了大部分去庫存問題。而到了第二季度，我想說我們的需求狀況已經恢復正常，重新與需求連結起來，我認為，這是去庫存化已經過去的階段，到目前為止，今年的農業季節很正常。雖然這其中有各種因素，但就我們生產的產品而言，我認為這是一個正常的農業季節，因此第二季度的業績不錯，而第三季度的業績會比較疲軟。

We do not expect much inventory building in Q4 from our customers. I think they're still being a bit cautious on how to manage the inventory. So we expect we'll see a big build of ag demand for us in the first quarter of next year, which will be a nice tailwind for the next year versus this year.

我們預計第四季客戶不會增加太多庫存。我認為他們對如何管理庫存仍持謹慎態度。因此，我們預計明年第一季農業需求將大幅增加，這對明年相比今年將是一個好的推動力。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Mark, is there a go/no-go date in terms of France? Or is there a plan B in case we're sitting here a couple of quarters from now and you still haven't made any progress on either the gating issues to move forward?

馬克，就法國而言，有沒有可以去/不可以去的日期？或者是否有 B 計劃，以防我們幾個季度後仍然沒有在門控問題上取得任何進展？

When it comes to French project, I mean, Vince, I really hope we have clear insight by the end of the year about where that project is headed. I wouldn't say it's necessarily a formal go/no-go decision, but we'll have good insight as we go through the fall with customer contract discussions and finish the engineering work. The reality is, we have a lot of portfolio options in how we manage these three plants and what products we put into each of them and what pace we build them. So we're very excited about the first plant. We're very excited about getting Texas built.

說到法國項目，文斯，我真的希望我們到今年年底能清楚了解該項目的發展方向。我不會說這一定是一個正式的通過/不通過的決定，但隨著秋季與客戶合約的討論和工程工作的完成，我們將會有很好的見解。事實上，在如何管理這三家工廠、在每家工廠生產什麼產品以及以什麼樣的速度建造這些工廠方面，我們有許多投資組合選擇。因此，我們對第一家工廠感到非常興奮。我們對德克薩斯州的建設感到非常興奮。

Texas will have the capability to make specialty products as well as PET. So you've got flex in how do you serve and support specialty growth and PET growth from the Texas project as we didn't go into the French project. But hopefully, have the sorted out. We still think that that $450 million of EBITDA across these three projects is very much intact as a long-term value creation target across these projects. And depending on how you go forward, you can still get a lot of that value by shifting where you make the specialties in the first few projects. So there's a lot of robustness in this plan, but we're very committed to wanting to build all three of these projects.

德州將有能力生產特種產品以及 PET。因此，由於我們沒有參與法國項目，因此您可以靈活地選擇如何服務和支持德州計畫的專業成長和 PET 成長。但希望，一切都已經解決了。我們仍然認為，這三個項目的 4.5 億美元 EBITDA 作為這些項目的長期價值創造目標非常完整。並且，根據您的前進方式，透過轉變前幾個專案中的專業領域，您仍然可以獲得很多價值。所以這個計劃非常穩健，但我們非常致力於建立這三個項目。

But to be very clear, we're sticking to our model, which is on the PET side. If we don't get these long-term take-or-pay contracts as we did get with Pepsi, we will not build the French project. So we're being very clear to the customers that we need to get these contract commitments in place to produce product that they very much need if they want to get to high recycling content targets in Europe. There is no way you can do it with mechanical alone; can't be done. So if they want to stay committed to their goals, they're going to have to support these investments.

但要明確的是，我們堅持我們的模型，也就是 PET 方面的模型。如果我們無法獲得像百事可樂那樣的長期照付不議合同，我們就不會建設法國計畫。因此，我們向客戶明確表示，如果他們想達到歐洲的高回收含量目標，我們需要履行這些合約承諾來生產他們非常需要的產品。單靠機械是不可能做到這一點的；不可能做到。因此，如果他們想堅持自己的目標，他們就必須支持這些投資。

Okay. Good to hear.

好的。很高興聽到。

And if I could just get your thoughts on -- obviously, I don't know what's going to happen with the election. But on one side of it, we could be entering back into a world with tariffs and things like that. And so maybe you could just help us understand what your view on that would be? And what the learnings for Eastman was from that original tariff period of 2017, 2018, and what the impact could be this time around?

我想問一下您的想法——顯然，我不知道選舉會發生什麼。但一方面，我們可能會重新進入一個充滿關稅和類似問題的世界。那麼也許您可以幫助我們了解您對此的看法？伊士曼從 2017 年和 2018 年最初的關稅期間學到了什麼？

I'm glad you didn't ask me who's going to win the election in November because I wouldn't answer (multiple speakers) but I actually think tariffs are an issue, no matter which person we have as a President of this country. The China government has a very explicit and public policy of exporting their excess capacity to the world, and that's going to have an impact on markets. They're basically exporting unemployment to the world.

我很高興你們沒有問我誰將贏得十一月的選舉，因為我不會回答（多位發言者），但我確實認為關稅是一個問題，無論誰擔任這個國家的總統。中國政府有一項非常明確的公開政策，即向全球出口過剩產能，這將對市場產生影響。他們實際上正在向世界輸出失業。

And for us, fortunately, we're not that exposed to those exports from China. We do have some exposure when it comes to the CI business, has some exposure. But really, most of the exports from China are going to impact Europe and Latin America. We don't have that many sales. Over 70% of our sales are in North America with CI. So our exposure there is somewhat limited. And AFP has a little bit of exposure. So from a direct import point of view and step one, which is where we are now, our exposure on the Chinese side is not that great, which is a good thing.

而對我們來說，幸運的是，我們並沒有受到中國出口產品太大的影響。在 CI 業務方面我們確實有一些曝光，有一些曝光。但實際上，中國的大部分出口將影響歐洲和拉丁美洲。我們的銷量沒有那麼多。我們 70% 以上的銷售額來自北美和 CI。因此我們在那裡的曝光度相當有限。而法新社的曝光率也有點高。因此，從直接進口的角度和第一步（也就是我們現在所處的位置）來看，我們在中國方面的曝光度並不是那麼高，這是一件好事。

The bad thing is, there's going to be reactions that you're already seeing in Europe and the US, putting tariffs in place for products are being exported at exceptional the cost out of China. And then that will be response in China. So we do expect that there's some degree of tariff tension coming our way. This is not a new issue for us. China is about 10% of our revenue. About half of that is -- goes into China and then we are exported back out of China, typically, think of appliances, electronics and things like that durables. And that's mostly specialty plastics doing a round trip through China being made into something.

糟糕的是，你會看到歐洲和美國的反應，對中國以極高的成本出口的產品徵收關稅。這將會是中國做出的反應。因此，我們確實預期會出現一定程度的關稅緊張局勢。這對我們來說不是一個新問題。中國約占我們收入的10%。其中大約有一半進入中國，然後出口回中國，通常是家電、電子產品和類似的耐用品。這些主要是特種塑料，它們要經過中國來回運輸，然後製成成品。

The other half, our products locally consumed like some performance films and laminates for cars, windows or a few coatings specialties out of AFP. We do have a playbook on how to manage through that that we developed in the 2018, 2019 timeframe. That playbook was relatively effective. And so we're just updating it and being prepared if that scenario plays out.

另一半產品則在當地消費，例如一些用於汽車、窗戶的高性能薄膜和層壓板，或一些來自 AFP 的特殊塗料。我們確實有一個在 2018 年和 2019 年期間制定的關於如何應對這一問題的劇本。這個劇本相對有效。因此，我們只是對其進行更新，並為這種情況發生做好準備。

We're ready for the next question.

我們已經準備好回答下一個問題了。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

瑞穗的約翰羅伯茲。

Mark, in fibers, could you provide some color on cig-tow versus textile fiber? And now that textile is as profitable as cig-tow, what's the constraint on how quickly you could shift volume from cig-tow to fibers -- to textile fibers?

馬克，在纖維方面，您能否提供一些香菸絲束與紡織纖維的差異？現在紡織品的利潤已經和香菸絲束一樣豐厚，那麼從香菸絲束轉移到纖維（再到紡織纖維）的速度受到哪些限制呢？

So 80% of our revenue is tow. And obviously, that market has changed pretty substantially over the last two years as the utilization rates have become very high and customers have been focused on security supply. So we expect that market to continue to be stable. As we've mentioned, we have 100% of the business contracted this year, 90% next year, and 70% in '26. So we feel pretty good about the contracts in place.

因此我們的收入80%來自拖車。顯然，由於利用率變得非常高且客戶一直關注安全供應，該市場在過去兩年中發生了相當大的變化。因此我們預期市場將持續保持穩定。正如我們所提到的，我們今年的業務簽約率為 100%，明年為 90%，26 年為 70%。因此，我們對現有的合約感到非常滿意。

There are obviously our provisions for natural market decline in the volume in those contracts because it is still the modestly declining industry when it comes to tow. And it does have pricing structures in there to adjust for changes substantial changes in raw material costs so we're providing stability to both our customers as well as to us.

顯然，我們在這些合約中為自然的市場下降做好了準備，因為拖帶行業仍然是一個略有下滑的行業。它確實有定價結構來適應原材料成本的大幅變化，因此我們為客戶和我們自己提供了穩定性。

So that part of the market, I think we feel pretty good about. When it comes to the textile business, it's been great. We've seen tremendous growth in the textile market. This is also another very challenged end market. If you go look at the fashion industry, it's not exactly growing. But yet our volumes have grown materially relative to that underlying market.

所以我認為我們對這個部分市場感覺相當良好。就紡織業務而言，情況非常好。我們看到紡織品市場的巨大成長。這也是另一個面臨巨大挑戰的終端市場。如果你看一下時尚產業，你會發現它並沒有真正成長。但相對於該基礎市場，我們的銷量卻大幅成長。

The Naia fabric is just a great story. It's got half biocontent and now with replacing coal with waste plastic, we can make the other half of acetic anhydride to make the tow from wood pulp with waste plastic. So you got a very strong beginning of life story. And then this is going to become increasingly important is the microfibers that break off of clothing in the washing machine that end up in the ocean as microplastics, if it's a synthetic garment; ours will fully biodegrade. So we have plenty of certifications and studies that prove that our fibers will just naturally degrade at the same pace as cotton and have no life in the environment.

Naia 布料的故事很精彩。它有一半是生物含量，現在用廢塑膠代替煤，我們可以製造另一半乙酸酐，用廢塑膠從木漿中製造出絲束。所以你的人生故事有一個非常強大的開始。然後，這將變得越來越重要，洗衣機裡的衣服上脫落的微纖維最終會以微塑膠的形式進入海洋，如果它是合成服裝的話；我們的將完全生物降解。因此，我們有大量的認證和研究證明，我們的纖維將以與棉花相同的速度自然降解，並且在環境中不會產生任何生命。

So that's exceptionally important and that's going to become a bigger and bigger value proposition because textiles is by far the number one source of microplastics in the ocean or water waste. And having a product that biodegrades, I think, is going to increasingly have a significant value proposition on that end-of-life proposition, not just the beginning of life. So we feel great about that business and expect it to continue to grow.

所以這非常重要，而且這將成為一個越來越大的價值主張，因為紡織品是迄今為止海洋或水廢物中微塑膠的頭號來源。我認為，可生物降解的產品不僅在生命開始時，而且在生命終結時，將具有越來越重要的價值主張。因此，我們對這項業務感到非常滿意，並期待它能夠繼續成長。

Let's move to the next question please.

請讓我們轉到下一個問題。

Kevin McCarthy, VRP.

凱文·麥卡錫，VRP。

Mark, maybe sticking with microplastics in a sense. Can you provide an update on the Aventa business. How are the early days going there with Sealed Air and any other customers that you may be working with?

馬克，從某種意義上來說，也許要堅持使用微塑膠。您能否提供有關 Aventa 業務的最新進展？您與 Sealed Air 以及您可能正在合作的其他客戶早期合作情況如何？

More broadly, can you just talk about things like market opportunity, growth rate, margin profile there? Do you think it could be bigger than Naia over time or smaller than Naia? How would you frame that out?

更廣泛地說，您能談談那裡的市場機會、成長率、利潤率狀況嗎？您認為隨著時間的推移它會比 Naia 更大還是比 Naia 更小？您會如何構思呢？

Yeah, Aventa is going really well. We've had a great successful launch with Sealed Air in the marketplace. And we're now in a large grocery store that's doing a lot of trials where the product performance in the counter, if you will, is going really well.

是的，Aventa 發展得非常好。我們與 Sealed Air 合作在市場上取得了巨大的成功。現在，我們在一家大型雜貨店進行了大量試驗，櫃檯上的產品表現非常好。

For those who are not as familiar with Aventa, we can replace polystyrene, expanded polystyrene, whether it's trays or clamshells. In this case, trays for protein like your chicken and pork and everything else that goes in the grocery store. We replaced all that as a drop-in replacement to the existing polystyrene equipment with our cellulosic polymer, and it will get to the same low density as polystyrene and it is fully certified to biodegrade in home or industrial composting. And even if it ends up in landfill, it can biodegrade pretty much similar to paper.

對於那些不太熟悉 Aventa 的人，我們可以更換聚苯乙烯、發泡聚苯乙烯，無論是托盤還是翻蓋式容器。在這種情況下，托盤用於盛放雞肉、豬肉等蛋白質以及雜貨店中的所有其他食物。我們用纖維素聚合物取代了現有的聚苯乙烯設備，其密度與聚苯乙烯一樣低，並且經過認證，可以在家庭或工業堆肥中生物降解。即使最終進入垃圾掩埋場，它的生物降解程度也與紙張類似。

So it's a great story of end of life. It's got the same beginning of life story I just told you from Naia and how we can make it. But this compostability where all these different food service products can just be thrown away with food and biodegrade is exceptionally important. There's a number of states that are now banning it, polystyrene from being used, other states or companies willing just to have a natural -- natural position. It also makes by the way a phenomenally good straw, which is also compostable in rolling out in some major food chains right now as we speak. So the program is going well. The volume is ramping up. We have meaningful commercial sales this year and expect step-up next year as we prove out this value proposition in these early trials.

這是一個關於生命終點的偉大故事。它有著和我剛剛告訴你的 Naia 生命故事的開端以及我們如何做到這一點相同。但可堆肥性（即所有這些不同的食品服務產品都可以與食物一起丟棄並生物降解）非常重要。目前有許多州禁止使用聚苯乙烯，而其他州或公司則願意採取天然的立場。順便說一下，它也是一種非常好的吸管，而且現在在一些大型食品連鎖店中使用時也可以堆肥。因此該專案進展順利。音量正在增大。我們今年的商業銷售量十分可觀，並且隨著我們在早期試驗中證明了這一價值主張，我們預計明年的銷售量將會增加。

To answer your question about size, it can definitely be bigger than the Naia business. There's a significant amount of volume potential in this space as you can imagine and the margins of this product are better than the company average. So as it grows, it's an upgrade for corporate earnings. It's an alternative market because it's made from the same exact cellulose acetate flake that we make tow out of or Naia out of and this uses the same polymer.

回答你關於規模的問題，它肯定可以比 Naia 業務更大。你可以想像，這個領域有巨大的銷售潛力，而且該產品的利潤率高於公司平均。因此，隨著它的成長，企業獲利就會提升。它是一個替代市場，因為它是由與我們製造拖纜或 Naia 完全相同的醋酸纖維素薄片製成的，並且使用相同的聚合物。

So you've got flexibility to optimize value across tow, Naia, and Aventa off the same fixed asset base. And when we look at it all together, we think that the growth curve of this will allow us and support us in expanding our acetate flake business over time.

因此，您可以靈活地在相同固定資產基礎上優化拖車、Naia 和 Aventa 的價值。當我們綜合考慮所有這些因素時，我們認為，這一成長曲線將允許並支持我們隨著時間的推移擴大醋酸纖維薄片業務。

We look forward to telling you a lot more about this in the circular day that Greg's scheduling. Because it's -- we'll cover the whole cellulose experience as well as the polyester circular stream as we hope we better understand that when we break it down here at Kingsport. We're very much looking forward to getting all of you down here in Kingsport to see all these different products and assets in action.

我們期待在 Greg 安排的循環日中告訴您更多有關此內容的資訊。因為它是——我們將涵蓋整個纖維素體驗以及聚酯循環流程，我們希望當我們在金斯波特分解它時我們能夠更好地理解這一點。我們非常期待大家來到金斯波特，親眼見證這些不同產品和資產的實際應用。

Great.

偉大的。

And then as a follow-up, if I may, Mark. Can you speak to the forward volume trajectory in advanced materials? You posted 12% there. But if I look at the two year stack, it's still down. So do you see additional runway to grow at double-digit pace in the third quarter, for example? Maybe you could talk through what you're baking into the guide there.

然後作為後續問題，如果可以的話，馬克。能談談先進材料的未來體積發展軌跡嗎？您在那裡發布了 12%。但如果我看一下兩年的累積，它仍然處於下降趨勢。那麼，您是否認為第三季的成長速度將達到兩位數？也許您可以談談您在指南中烘焙的內容。

So our guide is basically a similar -- from an earnings point of view, a similar quarter in Q3 to Q2. And we've got the methanolysis coming online, as we said, where the volume is now ramping up into 3Q and in 4Q. So you'll see that pick up on the advanced materials side.

因此，我們的指南基本上是類似的——從獲利的角度來看，第三季與第二季類似。正如我們所說，我們的甲醇分解製程已上線，目前產量在第三季和第四季正在增加。因此，您會看到先進材料方面的成長。

We'll continue to have innovation driving growth above underlying markets in the automotive sector, paving win applications across the portfolio on our innovation like we do every year in our past in the more traditional sense, if you will. So we see all that volume helping us as we go into the back half of the year.

我們將繼續透過創新推動汽車產業基礎市場的成長，以更傳統的方式為整個產品組合的創新應用鋪平道路，就像我們過去每年所做的那樣。因此，我們看到，當我們進入下半年時，所有這些交易量都對我們有所幫助。

You will obviously see some normal seasonality drop in demand in the fourth quarter. We expect that to be not as much as you would normally see net because of the ramp-up in methanolysis and everything else. So the fourth quarter will be better than typical because of methanolysis and some of these other end market ramp-up of innovation sales. So I think that all that will come together to help.

您顯然會看到第四季度需求出現一些正常的季節性下降。我們預計，由於甲醇分解和其他因素的增加，這一淨值不會像您通常看到的那麼多。因此，由於甲醇分解和其他一些終端市場創新銷售的成長，第四季的表現將比平常更好。所以我認為，所有這些都會有所幫助。

There's also spread tailwind that helps in the back half of the year when you look at some of the trends in energy costs that are still the lower energy cost at the beginning of the year still flowing through inventory and PX is a bit lower now than where it was in the first half of the year. So those are all tailwinds. Then the headwind is about $25 million higher shutdown costs in the back half of the year, but that's mostly in Q4 than the first half, right? That nets off some of that volume growth.

從能源成本的一些趨勢來看，價差的順風對下半年也有幫助，年初的能源成本仍然較低，庫存仍在流動，目前的 PX 比上半年略低。這些都是順風。那麼不利因素就是下半年的停工成本增加了約 2,500 萬美元，但這主要是在第四季而不是上半年，對嗎？這抵消了部分銷售成長。

Let's make the next question, the last one please.

我們來問下一個問題，也是最後一個問題。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯·亞歷山大（Laurence Alexander），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

Two quick ones. Just on heat transfer fluids. Is that $30 million expected to recur in the first half of 2025?

兩個簡單的。僅關於傳熱流體。這 3000 萬美元預計會在 2025 年上半年再次出現嗎？

And secondly, the $50-million increase in your new projects and growth project investments, is that new platforms that you're working on? Or is that just inflation in your cost base? And how should we think about that going forward?

其次，您在新專案和成長專案投資中增加了 5000 萬美元，這是您正在開發的新平台嗎？還是這只是成本基礎的通貨膨脹？那我們今後該如何思考這個問題呢？

So the first question, I'm going to answer. And the second question, I'm just not sure I understood the question.

所以我來回答第一個問題。對於第二個問題，我不確定我是否理解了這個問題。

So the first question on heat transfer fluids, timing is everything in that business, and it's very hard to predict by quarter. So we've had a great year last year, $30 million lower this year. A lot of that $30 million will come back next year, specifically in the LNG space that are very high-value fills for us. But I would just think about it on an annual basis, it's very difficult to predict exactly when fills occur quarter-by-quarter.

因此，關於傳熱流體的第一個問題是，時機對於該行業來說至關重要，很難按季度進行預測。去年我們過得很愉快，但今年的損失卻高達 3000 萬美元。這 3,000 萬美元中的大部分將在明年回歸，特別是在對我們來說價值非常高的液化天然氣領域。但我只會從年度角度來考慮這個問題，很難準確預測每季的填充時間。

On the second question, I apologize, but --

關於第二個問題，我很抱歉，但是--

Yeah. So Laurence, I think you're talking about our growth, our increase in spend and our capabilities as well as continued investments in growth. And as you think about what Mark just outlined on Aventa and the increased expenditures there that I referenced in our other segment, that's where -- again, this year, we're increasing those. We expect to see the ramp-up of revenue that Mark just referenced in the cellulosics and including the Aventa product line. So we're making the investments also to be efficient with the working capital et cetera and expect returns on those as we go into 2025.

是的。所以勞倫斯，我認為你談論的是我們的成長、我們的支出和能力的增加以及對成長的持續投資。正如您所想的，馬克剛才對 Aventa 的概述以及我在其他部分中提到的增加的支出，這就是 — — 今年，我們再次增加了這些支出。我們預計會看到馬克剛才提到的纖維素材料和 Aventa 產品線的收入增加。因此，我們進行投資也是為了有效利用營運資金等，並期望在 2025 年獲得回報。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us. We appreciate you being on this call with us. As Mark mentioned, we look forward to also having you in Kingsport later this year as we do a deep dive on our circular economy platform.

感謝大家加入我們。感謝您與我們通話。正如馬克所說，我們期待今年稍晚您也能來到金斯波特，深入探討我們的循環經濟平台。

Everybody, have a great day.

祝大家有個愉快的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。