伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the first-quarter 2025 Eastman conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加 2025 年第一季伊士曼電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。

We'll now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle, Eastman Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將電話轉給伊士曼投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you very much, Becky. And good morning, everyone, and thanks very much for joining us today. On the call with me are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe and Emily Alexander from the Investor Relations team.

非常感謝，貝基。大家早安，非常感謝大家今天加入我們。與我一起通話的還有董事會主席兼執行長 Mark Costa； Willie McLain，執行副總裁兼財務長；以及投資者關係團隊的 Jake LaRoe 和 Emily Alexander。

Yesterday, after market close, we posted our first-quarter 2025 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, our slides, and the related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website, eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，我們在網站 eastman.com 的投資者部分發布了 2025 年第一季財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件、幻燈片以及相關的準備好的評論。

Before we begin, I'll cover two items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our first-quarter 2025 financial results news release. During this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the SEC, including the Form 10-K filed for full year 2024 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for first quarter 2025.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在我們的 2025 年第一季財務業績新聞稿中詳細說明。在本次電話會議中，在前面的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，包括提交的 2024 年全年 10-K 表格和將於 2025 年第一季度提交的 10-Q 表格。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain non-core items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the first-quarter 2025 financial results news release. As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we will now go straight into Q&A.

其次，本簡報中所引用的收益不包括某些非核心項目。2025 年第一季財務業績新聞稿中提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標及其他相關揭露的對賬，包括排除和調整項目的描述。由於我們昨晚已將幻燈片和隨附的準備好的發言稿發佈在我們的網站上，因此我們現在將直接進入問答環節。

Becky, please, let's start with our first question.

貝基，請讓我們從第一個問題開始。

(Operator Instructions) Patrick Cunningham, Citigroup.

（操作員指示）花旗集團的帕特里克·坎寧安。

Hi. Good morning. First, just on the lower sales guide for Renew, I guess first, what has been the sales and EBITDA contribution in the first quarter? And I'm just curious on the level of confidence in the low end of the sales guide. How much visibility do you have into order books? And is there a floor for that EBITDA contribution just based on cost performance and volume that's already contracted?

你好。早安.首先，僅就 Renew 的較低銷售指南而言，我想首先，第一季的銷售額和 EBITDA 貢獻是多少？我只是好奇對銷售指南低端的信心水平。您對訂單簿的了解程度如何？那麼，僅根據成本績效和已簽約的數量，EBITDA 貢獻是否存在底線？

Certainly. Good morning, Patrick.

當然。早上好，派崔克。

When it comes to the overall methanolysis program with Kingsport, things are actually going quite well on the operational side. We've had a very successful quarter of running the facility at high rates. We've maintained an 85% yield on the DMT feedstock from the hard-to- recycle stream. We're finding ways to use even cheaper versions of feedstock. So operations are really good.

當談到金斯波特的整體甲醇分解計劃時，營運方面的事情實際上進展得相當順利。本季度，我們以高速率運行該設施，並取得了巨大成功。我們從難以回收的物流中維持了 85% 的 DMT 原料產量。我們正在尋找使用更便宜原料的方法。所以操作確實很好。

If you analyze sort of the production rate that we had in the first quarter, we're very much on track for that 2.5% greater production volumes. So when you put that together with the absence of the startup costs in the first quarter, it's generated a considerable amount of earnings in the corporate other area around $25 million in that absence.

如果你分析我們第一季的生產力，你會發現我們的產量很有可能增加 2.5%。因此，如果將其與第一季沒有啟動成本的情況結合起來，那麼在公司其他領域就會產生相當可觀的收益，約為 2500 萬美元。

When you look at the overall cost program we're on for a full-year basis, we're very much on track to get our $50 million of EBITDA from the manufacturing cost side of the equation out of the original $75 million to $100 million guide. So I'd say on the operational side, that $50 million certainly showed up in the first quarter as expected, and we expect will continue to show up through the year.

當您查看我們全年的整體成本計劃時，我們非常有望從製造成本方面獲得 5000 萬美元的 EBITDA，而原來的指導價格為 7500 萬至 1 億美元。因此我想說，從營運方面來看，第一季肯定會出現 5,000 萬美元的預期，而且我們預計這一數字將在今年全年持續成長。

When it comes to the Renew side of things, on the revenue side, we originally had given you a guide back to the deep dive of $75 million to $100 million of Renew revenue, and that was based on an assumption around the economy being relatively stable in consumer durables, stable, modest growth in packaging for food applications, et cetera. So basically a continuation of the dynamics we had for '24 would continue into '25. And that was for sure true through the first quarter.

談到 Renew 方面，在收入方面，我們最初為您提供了有關 Renew 收入 7500 萬至 1 億美元深度挖掘的指南，這是基於對耐用消費品經濟相對穩定、食品包裝應用穩定、適度增長等的假設。因此，2024 年的動態基本上會延續到 2025 年。而第一季的情況確實如此。

But what happened is with the trade dispute tensions developing and the discussions of tariffs, especially the tensions between China and the US and where the tariffs have now gone, the rate and growth of the consumer durable market that is largely made in China and shipped to the US is now in question about how that market's going to hold up. With the level of tariffs that we currently have, it's not economic to import those kind of products.

但實際情況是，隨著貿易爭端緊張局勢的加劇和關稅討論，特別是中美之間的緊張局勢以及關稅的走向，主要在中國製造並運往美國的耐用消費品市場的速度和增長現在受到質疑，即該市場將如何維持下去。以我們目前的關稅水平，進口此類產品並不經濟。

So the revision that we've given you from $50 million to $75 million of revenue now versus the higher rate is purely an end-market estimation of the impact of tariffs. It has nothing to do with the engagement we're seeing in the marketplace, but we certainly don't expect the same kind of growth in those kind of products for the year.

因此，我們給您的修訂版，即現在的收入從 5000 萬美元增加到 7500 萬美元，相對於更高的稅率，純粹是終端市場對關稅影響的估計。這與我們在市場上看到的參與度無關，但我們當然不期望今年這類產品能達到同樣的成長。

When it comes to engagement, customers are still very much engaged, as we said, on the durables side. We have over 100 customers. The economic tensions are certainly slowing the rate of product launches. If you can't import a product from China, you can't launch a new product. So that reduces the rate at which the new product launches for Renew content can be brought to market. So that factor is being managed.

談到參與度，正如我們所說，客戶在耐用品方面仍然非常投入。我們有超過 100 位客戶。經濟緊張局勢無疑減緩了產品推出的速度。如果無法從中國進口產品，就無法推出新產品。因此，這會降低 Renew 內容新產品推向市場的速度。因此該因素正在管理。

We've only had a few customers revert back to normal Tritan because of the premium that they're trying to avoid in this economic time. So I would say market engagement there is still good. It's just a question of where these tariff disputes go. If they're resolved soon, this quarter, then things would start to recover and get back to normal. They'll actually have to restock because they're pulling inventory down below normal levels right now to avoid paying the tariffs. So we certainly aren't sitting on a big amount of finished good inventory on the planet given we've been in a recession for a while.

只有少數客戶因為在當前經濟狀況下試圖避免溢價而重新使用普通的 Tritan。所以我想說那裡的市場參與度仍然很好。問題只是這些關稅爭端將走向何方。如果本季能盡快解決這些問題，情況就會開始好轉並恢復正常。他們實際上必須補貨，因為他們現在正在將庫存降至正常水平以下以避免支付關稅。因此，考慮到我們已經陷入經濟衰退一段時間了，我們肯定不會在地球上擁有大量的成品庫存。

And then, what I say on the food packaging side, on rPET engagement is also good. The brands are really facing some significant limitations on mechanical recycling in a variety of applications and are very much engaged in trying to find ways to buy some rPET for us in applications where there's high-quality aesthetics required or certain technical performance requirements that mechanical can't meet. So we're still making good progress to be able to sell rPET in the back half of the year as we convert that Tritan line over to making PET that we discussed before. So overall, I'd say we're in good shape, and it's just a market question around tariffs.

然後，我想說，在食品包裝方面，rPET 的參與度也很好。這些品牌在各種應用中的機械回收確實面臨一些重大限制，並且非常努力地尋找方法為我們購買一些 rPET，用於需要高品質美學效果或機械無法滿足的某些技術性能要求的應用中。因此，隨著我們將 Tritan 生產線轉換為生產我們之前討論過的 PET，我們在下半年銷售 rPET 方面仍取得了良好的進展。所以總的來說，我認為我們狀況良好，這只是一個有關關稅的市場問題。

Very helpful, Mark. And then maybe just on Fibers, it seems to be getting a double hit on some tariff-related impact and persistent destocking. How long do you anticipate this destocking to persist? And how should we think about contract performance in the next couple of years and a potential further normalization from here?

非常有幫助，馬克。然後也許僅僅對於纖維而言，它似乎受到了與關稅相關的影響和持續去庫存的雙重打擊。您預計這種去庫存趨勢會持續多久？我們應該如何看待未來幾年的合約履行情況以及未來可能的進一步正常化？

Yeah. So certainly, the overall Fibers business has some challenges to it. As you said, there are sort of two separate challenges. I'll start with the destocking one first.

是的。因此，整體纖維業務肯定會面臨一些挑戰。正如您所說，有兩種不同的挑戰。我首先從去庫存開始。

First, there's no change we've seen in the end market growth rates. So that is not part of what's going on as far as we can tell. So market growth rates are still modest in the 1% to 2% rate as the traditional cigarette market is declining in the 2% to 3% range, but the heat-not-burn cigarette is offsetting it. We've talked about that in the past. So that part is actually quite stable.

首先，我們沒有看到終端市場成長率有任何變化。據我們所知，這並不是正在發生的事情。因此，市場成長率仍保持在 1% 至 2% 之間，因為傳統香菸市場正在下滑 2% 至 3%，但加熱不燃燒香菸正在抵消這一下滑。我們過去曾討論過這個問題。所以那部分其實相當穩定。

Our contract rate for the year -- of this year is around 90%, which has put the prices in place for the year. So we're in a very solid shape on a pricing point. So as you said, it's really a question of what's driving the volume decline. But if the markets are stable, then by definition, it's a dynamic around customer destocking as the principal driver of what's going on.

我們今年的合約率約為 90%，這決定了全年的價格。因此，我們的定價狀況非常穩固。所以正如你所說，真正的問題在於導致交易量下降的原因是什麼。但如果市場穩定，那麼根據定義，圍繞客戶去庫存的動態就是當前情勢的主要驅動力。

As I said before, tow is incredibly small percent of the final price of cigarette, about 2%. So the cost of it is not a high priority when you're selling cigarettes that are greater than 60% gross margins. The focus always starts with security of supply. And when the market got incredibly tight in that '21-22 timeframe, customers were building inventory, and as we've now discovered, building a lot more inventory than we fully understood.

正如我之前所說，菸草在香菸最終價格中所佔的比例非常小，約為 2%。因此，當你銷售毛利率超過 60% 的香菸時，成本並不是首要考慮因素。重點始終放在供應安全。當 21-22 年期間市場變得異常緊張時，客戶開始建立庫存，正如我們現在發現的那樣，他們建立的庫存比我們完全理解的要多得多。

One of the challenges with customers when you're in situations like a very tight market is no one wants to tell you how much inventory they have because they're afraid you will not supply material to them as much as they might need going forward. So you get this dislocation of inventory, and we certainly lived through that in the '22-23 timeframe where we discovered just how much inventory people have built over time. And so the destocking is going a bit longer than we expected.

當你處於非常緊張的市場狀況時，與客戶打交道所面臨的挑戰之一是，沒有人願意告訴你他們有多少庫存，因為他們擔心你不會向他們提供未來所需的那麼多材料。所以你就會出現庫存錯置的情況，我們在 22-23 年間確實經歷過這種情況，我們發現人們隨著時間的推移積累了多少庫存。因此，去庫存的過程比我們預期的要長一些。

And the reason the destocking started, I should have mentioned, is the market has loosened up a little bit. So there is some capacity that's been added in China. If you look at it from a '23 to '25 point of view, the capacity is around 5% of the ex-China market. So the capacity utilizations have now moved down into that lower 90% range -- 90%, 95% range. And with that room, the customers feel safe in destocking.

我應該要提到，開始去庫存的原因是市場已經稍微放鬆了。因此，中國增加了一些產能。如果從 23 年至 25 年的角度來看，其運能約佔中國以外市場的 5%。因此，產能利用率現已下降至 90% 以下——90%、95% 的範圍。有了這個空間，顧客就可以放心地去庫存了。

And that's what we see going on. And what we're going to see in the second quarter is something similar to the first quarter. I've learned my lesson around predicting how long destocking is going to last. Certainly, we expect some of it to continue in the back half of the year. And we're still working with our customers to truly understand exactly where this all sits.

這就是我們所看到的正在發生的事情。我們將在第二季度看到與第一季類似的情況。我已經從預測去庫存化將持續多久的問題中吸取了教訓。當然，我們預計今年下半年這種趨勢還會持續下去。我們仍在與客戶合作，以真正了解這一切的確切情況。

But the good news is the fundamentals are there. The capacity utilization is still in the 90s. The markets are not declining in some significant way, and I think that gives us stability. The contracts, as you asked, are about 80% for next year. Most of those are multi-year contracts, some are annual. They generally include pricing, a lot of CPT pricing, that actually gives customer protection on making sure the margins are tracking with raw materials.

但好消息是基本面已經存在。產能利用率仍在90左右。市場並沒有顯著下滑，我認為這給我們帶來了穩定。如您所問，合約中約有 80% 是為明年簽訂的。其中大多數是多年期合同，有些是年度合約。它們通常包括定價，很多是 CPT 定價，這實際上為客戶提供了保護，確保利潤與原材料保持一致。

So overall, I'd say we feel like the market is certainly facing that challenge, and it's going to continue a bit more than we expected. But it's good to remember, there are a couple of other dynamics driving earnings down, and we had a discontinued product from customers of about $10 million, and energy is a bit of a headwind this year relative to last year and outflows in.

所以總的來說，我認為我們感覺市場肯定面臨著這項挑戰，而這種挑戰將比我們預期的更嚴重。但值得記住的是，還有其他一些因素導致收益下降，我們有一款價值約 1000 萬美元的產品停產，而且與去年相比，今年的能源情況有些不利，資金流入。

The second part of this discussion, of course, is around the impact on the tariffs with China. We do have two products that go into China. One is the textiles, the Naia product, which has been a great growth story for us. And half of the Naia that we sell is in China and the other half is outside of China. It's a huge market. So it's a time-based issue for us to -- if these tariffs last for a period of time of just winning market share in mills outside of China to replace what we do in China. So that one is manageable, and we have some inventory in place to mitigate some of those issues.

當然，本次討論的第二部分是關於對中國關稅的影響。我們確實有兩種產品進入中國。一是紡織品，即 Naia 產品，這對我們來說是一個巨大的成長故事。我們銷售的 Naia 有一半在中國國內，另一半在中國境外。這是一個巨大的市場。因此，這對我們來說是一個時間問題——如果這些關稅持續一段時間，我們就能在中國以外的工廠贏得市場份額，取代我們在中國所做的事情。因此這個問題是可以解決的，而且我們有一些庫存來緩解其中的一些問題。

Now, when it comes to the flake, this is cellulose flake that you spin into fiber, and we do this with the Chinese National Tobacco Company. Obviously, the rates are pretty high there, and so we'll have to just see how those tariffs evolve over time. So that's a more specific thing around what's going on with the tariffs. And we'll have to just see how long the tariffs last with China. When you put them together, obviously, it creates a bit of more challenge for this year. It's still extraordinary earnings compared to our past and great cash flow that comes out of this business.

現在，說到薄片，這是紡成纖維的纖維素薄片，我們與中國菸草總公司合作進行這項工作。顯然，那裡的稅率相當高，所以我們只能觀察這些關稅隨著時間的推移如何變化。這是有關關稅的更具體的事情。我們只需看看對中國的關稅將持續多久。當你把它們放在一起時，顯然會為今年帶來更多挑戰。與我們過去相比，這仍然是非凡的收益，而這項業務產生了巨大的現金流。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Thank you. Good morning. And first, congrats on being recognized for your support of veterans and active-duty service members. Very well done.

謝謝。早安.首先，恭喜您對退伍軍人和現役軍人的支持獲得認可。做得很好。

Mark, on your China sales, of the portion roughly 60% supplied from the US, if these tariffs stay in place, how much is at risk do you think of perhaps just going away? I know you address Fibers, but how about AM and AFP? Thank you.

馬克，關於你們在中國的銷售，其中大約 60% 來自美國，如果這些關稅繼續存在，你們認為取消這些關稅的風險有多大？我知道您提到了光纖，但是 AM 和 AFP 呢？謝謝。

Yeah. David, a lot of these questions are really sort of situational specific to this segment. So I just addressed the Fibers part, where half of it is very much addressable to move out of the country rather than mitigating actions we're pursuing around the flake supply. So I think there's lots of different ways over time to manage the Fibers side of the equation.

是的。大衛，這些問題中的許多問題實際上都是針對這個部分的具體情況的。因此，我只是討論了纖維部分，其中一半的纖維可以透過運出國外來解決，而不是採取我們正在採取的緩解薄片供應的措施。所以我認為隨著時間的推移，有很多不同的方法來管理等式的光纖方面。

When it comes to CI, just to be clear, no exposure, so nothing to worry about there. Frankly, probably upside in CI, which is primarily selling in North America, and the tariffs that we have coming in this country from products around the world that sort of set the price on the marketplace over time will give us some lift there. But in the short term, pretty modest just because of the competitive situation.

說到 CI，要明確的是，沒有暴露，所以沒有什麼好擔心的。坦白說，主要在北美銷售的 CI 可能會帶來好處，而且我們國家對來自世界各地的產品徵收的關稅會隨著時間的推移決定市場價格，這將為我們帶來一些提振。但在短期內，由於競爭情勢的原因，成長幅度相當有限。

When it comes to AFP, the exposure in AFP is more limited. Similar to Fibers, it's around $200 million of revenue in 2024. But a lot of the segment does not have exposure to China from a US production point of view, so especially fluids business, we have production outside Europe. When it comes to all of our amines business in care and ag, we've got assets in the US, our largest assets in Europe, and assets in China. So we have lots of different ways to serve those markets locally around the world.

說到 AFP，在 AFP 的曝光度比較有限。與 Fibers 類似，其 2024 年的收入約為 2 億美元。但從美國生產的角度來看，許多業務部門並沒有在中國開展業務，尤其是流體業務，我們的生產地點在歐洲以外。就我們在護理和農業領域的所有胺類業務而言，我們在美國擁有資產，在歐洲擁有最大的資產，在中國也擁有資產。因此，我們有許多不同的方式為世界各地的本地市場提供服務。

And a lot of the coating-related products we don't really sell into China. But there are a couple of very high-value specialty products like our cellulose additives that go into a wide range of coatings from cars to pharma to some other packaging applications. And that is exposed. It is a proprietary product that only we make. The margins on this business are pretty high.

但很多塗料相關產品我們其實並沒有銷往中國。但也有一些非常高價值的特種產品，例如我們的纖維素添加劑，可用於從汽車到製藥到其他一些包裝應用的各種塗料。而這已被揭露。這是只有我們才能生產的專有產品。這項業務的利潤率相當高。

So short term, it's hitting us in Q2 because our customers are well-stocked on inventory because it's so important they carry a lot of inventory in their formulations. And so we certainly see them not buying this quarter, hoping for a resolution between the US and China discussions. But it's a very important functional product where there really isn't a substitute. And so we have an ability to pass on some of that duty cost if we need to and find ways to work with our customers when they get back to ordering after they've used up their stock. So I think that one is also the category of manageable over time.

因此，短期內，這會在第二季對我們造成影響，因為我們的客戶庫存充足，因為在他們的配方中攜帶大量庫存非常重要。因此，我們肯定會看到他們本季不會購買，希望美國和中國之間的談判能達成解決方案。但它是一種非常重要的功能性產品，確實無可取代。因此，如果需要，我們有能力轉嫁部分關稅成本，並在客戶用完庫存並重新下單時找到與客戶合作的方法。所以我認為這也是隨著時間的推移可管理的類別。

In Advanced Materials, which is obviously the largest segment from a revenue point of view in China, there are really three businesses that have different stories. Interlayers makes the products in China, so no issue there. Performance Films historically has used a lot of product made in the US, but that's why we did the acquisition of Dalian to have our own Performance Films manufacturing capability in China.

從收入角度來看，先進材料顯然是中國最大的業務板塊，該板塊下屬的三家企業各有各的故事。Interlayers 在中國生產產品，因此沒有問題。Performance Films 過去使用過許多美國製造的產品，但這就是我們收購大連的原因，以便在中國擁有自己的 Performance Films 製造能力。

We also did an expansion of our capability in Germany. And so those two assets are in the middle of ramping up for this specific reason of being more local and diversified how to serve the market. So we're not going to have that much impact this quarter because of the inventory in place for Performance Films. We'll have some impact as we balance out the ramp-up of these assets relative to what we make in the US, but we can supply that market long term from other locations in the US.

我們也擴大了在德國的業務能力。因此，這兩項資產正處於加速發展階段，其具體原因是更加在地化和多樣化，以便服務於市場。因此，由於性能薄膜庫存充足，本季我們不會產生太大影響。當我們平衡這些資產相對於我們在美國生產的資產的成長時，我們會產生一些影響，但我們可以從美國其他地區長期供應該市場。

And then, Specialty Plastics clearly has exposure when they're made here in the US and those products are sent to China. On that front, we're also not getting that much of an impact this quarter because customers are sitting on inventory. And the real question, Specialty Plastics, is a lot of what we sell into China, especially Tritan, is then re-exported back to the US and Europe and other markets, and a lot of it to the US. So the main issue is how long do the tariffs stay in place that make it very expensive to buy an appliance or water bottle or whatever else in the US that's made in China.

然後，當特種塑膠在美國生產並且這些產品運往中國時，它們顯然具有曝光度。在這方面，我們本季也沒有受到太大影響，因為客戶有庫存。真正的問題是，特種塑料，我們銷往中國的許多產品，尤其是Tritan，後來又出口到美國、歐洲和其他市場，其中許多都銷往了美國。因此，主要問題是這些關稅將維持多久，導致在美國購買中國製造的電器、水瓶或其他產品變得非常昂貴。

So there's some uncertainty and risk around how those supply chains adjust to that. All these companies that make all these appliances have to get their products from somewhere. Retail lines need products from somewhere. There's a huge amount of effort going on around the world right now to find ways to source and make these products and ramp up production. And we'll follow the customers wherever they move around the planet because Tritan is a unique product.

因此，這些供應鏈如何適應這種情況存在一些不確定性和風險。所有生產這些電器的公司都必須從某個地方取得產品。零售線需要來自某個地方的產品。目前世界各地正在付出巨大努力來尋找採購和製造這些產品的方法並提高產量。而且，無論客戶身處世界何處，我們都會跟隨他們，因為 Tritan 是一款獨特的產品。

There is no easy substitute for Tritan. There are different plastics you can use, but they all come with significant compromise. Either if you go to polypropylene, it's very cloudy and not clear. If you go to a variety of different styrenics, the toughness or the chemical resistance from other products all create failure modes in how well the product performs in the market. So you can go if you want to compromise your product on the shelf, but otherwise you really want to keep using Tritan.

Tritan 並無簡單的替代品。您可以使用不同的塑料，但它們都有很大的缺點。如果你使用聚丙烯，它就會變得非常渾濁，不清晰。如果您嘗試各種不同的苯乙烯類產品，其他產品的韌性或耐化學性都會影響該產品在市場上的表現。因此，如果您想在貨架上犧牲產品的質量，您可以這麼做，但除此之外，您確實想繼續使用 Tritan。

And so we'll certainly feel some of that risk and impact if these tariffs stay in place through the back half of the year as these supply chains move around and the market here in the US has been impacted. Overall, that's sort of where we stand. When you put it all together, we've told you there's about a $30 million impact in Q2. Honestly, with all these uncertainties around tariffs and where they may negotiate, it's hard to predict what this impact is in the back half of the year.

因此，如果這些關稅在今年下半年繼續實施，我們肯定會感受到一些風險和影響，因為這些供應鏈會移動，美國市場也會受到影響。總體而言，這就是我們的現狀。綜合起來，我們會發現第二季的影響約為 3000 萬美元。老實說，由於關稅和談判地點存在許多不確定性，很難預測下半年會產生什麼影響。

Very good. And just lastly, on Longview and the DOE funding, I know you've been getting some funding every quarter, the last couple quarters. What's your level of confidence in this funding continuing under the current administration?

非常好。最後，關於 Longview 和 DOE 的資金，我知道過去幾季你們每季都會獲得一些資金。您對現任政府繼續提供這筆資金有多大信心？

We feel good about the executive order. Sorry, I just lost my track of thoughts. We feel very good about where we are with the DOE. They have been highly engaged with us. We think that we've got a good relationship there, and we think that our project actually holds up well in the way President Trump thinks about US manufacturing.

我們對這項行政命令感到滿意。抱歉，我剛才思緒混亂了。我們對與 DOE 的合作感到非常滿意。他們與我們保持著密切的聯繫。我們認為我們在那裡有著良好的關係，並且我們認為我們的項目實際上很好地符合川普總統對美國製造業的看法。

When you look at it, we're focused on growing US manufacturing. It is a serious issue. Manufacturing hasn't grown here in this country. It's been growing around the world. And the vertical integration and all the products that go into manufacturing, the finished products, is equally important if you want to have national and economic security. So there's actions that I think we should be taking.

如果你看一下，你會發現我們專注於發展美國製造業。這是一個嚴重的問題。這個國家的製造業還沒有發展。它在世界各地不斷增長。如果你想要國家和經濟安全，那麼垂直整合以及製造的所有產品、成品也同樣重要。所以我認為我們應該採取行動。

Strategic trade actions that are focused on specific issues around this topic make a lot of sense. We need a lot of regulation that reduces the difficulty and cost of building your tax and other incentive policy workforces, a variety of things I think we're very aligned with. The current administration is important, and this project fits all of these criteria. When you look at these circular investments, we're building infrastructure to deal with plastic waste.

圍繞這一主題採取針對具體問題的策略貿易行動非常有意義。我們需要大量的法規來降低建立稅收和其他激勵政策勞動力的難度和成本，我認為我們對這些事情都非常一致。現任政府很重要，這個計畫符合所有這些標準。當你看到這些循環投資時，你會發現我們正在建造處理塑膠垃圾的基礎設施。

And it's also a national security way to make raw materials for food packaging, medical, et cetera. It's onshoring jobs from Asia because most of all the PET business has now gone to China. And you're creating revenue way beyond just our facility and supporting the growth of the recycling infrastructure behind us and being a better supplier to local manufacturing of plastic-related products in the market. So it checks all the boxes on that front.

這也是一種生產食品包裝、醫療等原料的國家安全方式。這是將工作從亞洲轉移出去，因為現在大部分 PET 業務都轉移到了中國。而且，你們創造的收入遠不止我們的工廠，還支持我們背後的回收基礎設施的發展，並成為市場上本地塑膠相關產品製造的更好的供應商。因此它檢查了這方面的所有箱子。

It also is a version of energy independence. Plastic waste is basically oil sitting above ground, and you're reusing it instead of throwing it away. And this process is advantaged relative to paraxylene at any oil price above $60, so economically advantaged as well. And from a voter point of view, there's a lot of debate on climate, but there's no debate that people don't like plastic waste in their environment, no matter which side of the aisle they sit on.

這也是能源獨立的一種表現。塑膠垃圾基本上就是地面上的石油，你可以重複利用它，而不是把它丟掉。且當油價高於60美元時，此製程相對於對二甲苯而言具有優勢，因而具有經濟優勢。從選民的角度來看，關於氣候的爭論很多，但毫無疑問的是，無論人們坐在哪一邊，他們都不喜歡環境中有塑膠垃圾。

So we think we're in really good shape on this. So far, everything I just said seems to be aligned with what the DOE is looking for in the conversations we've had with them. We've been receiving our funds in Q4 and Q1. There is a lot of staff change going on in the DOE right now, so we're moving a little slow in how we sort of finalize the next phases of the contract. But we're not getting an indication that the project is at risk.

因此我們認為我們在這方面的狀況非常好。到目前為止，我剛才所說的一切似乎都與我們與能源部在對話中所尋求的一致。我們在第四季和第一季一直在收到資金。目前，能源部正在進行大量人員變動，因此我們在完成合約下一階段的工作方面進展有些緩慢。但我們並未發現該專案有風險的跡象。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyCorp.

阿列克謝·葉夫列莫夫（Aleksey Yefremov），KeyCorp。

Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to ask you -- there's a lot of concern about consumer health in the businesses where your products end up in consumer, I guess such as auto films. Are you seeing any meaningful slowdown in demand?

謝謝。早安.我想問您－在產品最終銷往消費者的企業中，人們非常關心消費者的健康，我想例如汽車貼膜。您是否發現需求出現明顯放緩？

On auto demand? Just consumer discretionary demand.

自動需求嗎？只是消費者可自由支配的需求。

No, consumer-related demand. Right.

不，與消費者相關的需求。正確的。

In our Q2 guide, we basically called out two dynamics that took us from where we were originally to now, both of which are trade-related. It's already covered the direct impacts of trade, which is at $30 million. But the other impact, as we tried to explain in our prepared remarks, is seasonal growth is typically really strong for our portfolio when you go from Q1 to Q2. And that is what drives going from $1.91 to some higher EPS in a normal situation.

在我們的第二季指南中，我們基本上指出了使我們從原來的狀態走到現在的兩種動態，這兩種動態都與貿易有關。它已經涵蓋了貿易的直接影響，金額達 3000 萬美元。但正如我們在準備好的發言中試圖解釋的那樣，另一個影響是，從第一季到第二季度，我們的投資組合的季節性成長通常非常強勁。這就是在正常情況下推動每股收益從 1.91 美元上漲至更高水平的原因。

We still see seasonal growth now, but we don't expect it to be as strong as what would have been normal. And that is very much related to consumers being concerned about the world and what's going on. You can see the confidence decline. You can certainly see consumer purchases on discretionary items right now increasing. People are buying cars, people are buying blenders, whatever else, because they're worried about tariffs coming.

我們現在仍然看到季節性成長，但我們預計它不會像正常情況那樣強勁。這與消費者關注世界和正在發生的事情密切相關。你可以看到信心的下降。現在您肯定可以看到消費者對非必需品的購買量正在增加。人們購買汽車、購買攪拌機以及其他任何東西，因為他們擔心關稅的到來。

So the consumer data would lead you to believe that there's a certain amount of growth going on. But in some sense, what you're doing is you're pulling forward consumer demand from the second half into now. And there's people worried and being cautious about what they want to spend in general. That's creating a lot of fog in what's really going on.

因此，消費者數據會讓你相信正在發生一定程度的成長。但從某種意義上來說，你所做的就是將消費者需求從下半年提早到現在。人們總體上對自己的支出感到擔憂和謹慎。這使得事情的真相變得撲朔迷離。

But as a company, whether it's us or our customers, you have to be considering multiple scenarios right now, one of which is that it gets resolved quickly and everything's okay. But you also have to prepare the more difficult scenario where these tariffs stay in place for a longer period of time and impact demand. And so we can see customers being a little bit more cautious on just how much inventory they want to build.

但作為一家公司，無論是我們還是我們的客戶，現在都必須考慮多種情況，其中之一就是問題迅速解決，一切正常。但你也必須準備好應對更困難的情況，即這些關稅將持續較長時間並影響需求。因此，我們可以看到客戶對於他們想要建立多少庫存更加謹慎。

And that's sort of the dynamic we're looking at here in the second quarter is not seeing as much growth. I mean, there is a risk where we don't make much progress on some of these trade issues. And you start getting people more nervous about when this is going to get resolved. And you can see some more destocking towards the back end of the quarter. But we'll just have to see how that all plays out.

這就是我們在第二季度看到的動態，也就是沒有太大的成長。我的意思是，我們有可能在某些貿易問題上無法取得太大進展。人們開始更加擔心這個問題何時才能解決。在本季末，你還會看到更多的去庫存現象。但我們只需看看這一切將如何發展。

Thanks, Mark. And just listening to your remarks about how tariffs are impacting your businesses, it seemed like initially you maybe had some inventory in China that allow you to mitigate it. Is it fair to say that if this tariff does not change in the second half, you may see a larger negative impact, direct negative impact from the tariff? Or that is not the case because you have some other mitigating measures? I just couldn't quite understand the net result of these two.

謝謝，馬克。聽您談到關稅如何影響您的業務，我感覺您最初可能在中國有一些庫存，可以緩解關稅的影響。是否可以說，如果下半年關稅不發生變化，可能會產生更大的負面影響，直接的負面影響？或者情況並非如此，因為您還有其他緩解措施？我只是不太明白這兩者最終的結果。

Sure. So again -- sorry, guys, but I got to go segment by segment because it's a different story. So I don't think there's any additional risk in the Fibers business. With the mitigating actions we have in place, I would expect that number to be relatively steady as you go through the rest of the year if things are not resolved.

當然。所以再次抱歉，各位，我必須逐一講述，因為這是一個不同的故事。因此我認為纖維業務不存在任何額外風險。透過採取緩解措施，如果問題無法解決，我預計今年剩餘時間這個數字將保持相對穩定。

Same is really true of AFP. I think there may be some modifications or mitigations there, but where things are a bit better in the back half of the year versus where we are now where the customers aren't buying at all. And then so it's got probably some moderate upside.

法新社的情況也是如此。我認為可能會有一些修改或緩解措施，但今年下半年的情況會比現在好一些，現在客戶根本不買單。那麼它可能會有一些適度的上升空間。

And then when it comes to the Advanced Materials segment, that's a little bit more complicated. Again, Interlayers is fine. Performance Films does have inventory in the marketplace right now. So that will run out at some point as you go in the back half of the year. But they're ramping up plants to replace a bunch of inventory from being made in China or in Europe. So hard to say exactly how that balances out. But I'd say that the headwind in the back half is a little bit more than the first half on PF.

當談到先進材料領域時，情況就變得有點複雜了。再次強調，Interlayers 很好。Performance Films 目前在市場上確實有庫存。因此，到了下半年，這個庫存就會用完。但他們正在加大工廠的產能，以取代大量在中國或歐洲生產的庫存。因此很難說清楚如何實現平衡。但我想說，PF 後半段的逆風比前半段大。

And then on Specialty Plastics, the headwind there would be more than where we are now. With the second quarter, people stop buying all these appliances and consumer durables. We'll have downside on the durables side, and then we'll have upside on selling more PET in the back half versus the first half as we start taking that to market. Obviously, that's lower margin, so it's not going to be a total offset. So some more exposure on SP in the back half versus the first.

而在特種塑膠方面，面臨的阻力將比現在更大。從第二季開始，人們停止購買所有這些家用電器和耐用消費品。我們在耐用品方面會面臨下行風險，但隨著我們開始將 PET 推向市場，下半年 PET 銷售量將比上半年增加，從而帶來上行風險。顯然，這是較低的利潤，因此不會完全抵消。因此，與前半部相比，後半部的 SP 曝光度更高。

I wouldn't know there are mitigating actions that we're taking that are a lot broader across just inventory. So we certainly have done that. We're ramping up plants. We're definitely working with a lot of customers around how they're moving to other parts of the world to make products. So there's a lot of that going on right now. If we're under pressure, imagine what it's like being someone forcing a blender from China right now. They're highly motivated to find solutions, and we'll follow them where they go.

我不知道我們正在採取的緩解措施是否比庫存措施更為廣泛。所以我們確實這樣做了。我們正在擴大工廠規模。我們確實正在與許多客戶合作，了解他們如何前往世界其他地方生產產品。現在有很多這樣的事情發生。如果我們面臨壓力，想像一下現在有人強迫從中國進口攪拌機是什麼感覺。他們積極尋求解決方案，我們將跟隨他們前往任何地方。

There's going to be pricing opportunities that we're going to find across the portfolio. And there's going to be volume growth opportunities that we can realize here in the US. We've got opportunities when it comes to direct competition being a bit more expensive as it's being imported. So we're going to see some benefits in those kind of areas.

我們將在整個投資組合中發現定價機會。在美國，我們可以實現銷售成長的機會。當涉及到直接競爭時，我們有機會，但由於進口成本較高，所以成本較高。因此我們將會看到這些領域的一些好處。

For example, Specialty Plastics, we'll see some of those benefits when it comes to thinking about parts of the portfolio. In AFP, we'll see some benefits around ag. And even things in CI, we'll see benefits like floor tiles. So there's a bunch of different examples moving around where there'll be some benefits, moving around where there'll be some growth we should realize in the US. I mean, we are the ultimate company with a low-cost structure to serve the North American market across all these different products that we make.

例如，特種塑料，當考慮產品組合的部分內容時，我們會看到其中的一些好處。在法新社，我們將看到一些有關農業的好處。甚至在 CI 中，我們也能看到像地磚一樣的好處。因此，有許多不同的例子表明，在美國，我們應該實現一些好處和成長。我的意思是，我們是一家採用低成本結構為北美市場提供各種不同產品的終極公司。

Let's go to the next question, please.

請讓我們進入下一個問題。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Thank you, and good morning. Mark, could you talk a little bit about the CapEx reduction and sort of what triggered the decision you made on, I guess, sort of deferring that CapEx at Longview? And are there any sort of costs associated with doing that in terms of the overall cost of the plant? It seems like timing's not changing, but just curious there.

謝謝，早安。馬克，您能否談談資本支出的減少，以及是什麼促使您做出推遲 Longview 資本支出的決定？就工廠的總成本而言，這樣做是否會產生任何相關成本？看起來時間沒有改變，但只是好奇而已。

Good morning, Vincent. Thanks for the question. So as we're looking across the scenarios that Mark has outlined, obviously being prepared for the potential downside of an extended trade dispute, we looked at now is the right time to optimize both efficiency and effectiveness of a CapEx reduction. Obviously, we're in the engineering phase of the Longview, Texas, project, and we can go through that detailed engineering and basically get more complete before we start to solidify the commitments without affecting the timelines of the completion of the project.

早上好，文森。謝謝你的提問。因此，當我們回顧馬克所概述的情景時，顯然我們已經為長期貿易爭端可能帶來的負面影響做好了準備，我們認為現在是優化資本支出削減效率和效果的最佳時機。顯然，我們正處於德克薩斯州朗維尤項目的工程階段，我們可以完成詳細的工程，並在開始鞏固承諾之前基本上使其更加完整，而不會影響項目完成的時間表。

So as you think about the midpoint, we reduced our capital from roughly $750 million to $550 million. I would again note that our CapEx from a maintenance standpoint is about $350 million, and we're still investing in this environment slightly above our D&A. So we're confident in our strategy, but we want to make sure that we're also prepared for those downside scenarios and making sure we deploy it efficiently. I would also highlight that the Texas project is the largest project, but it's still a little bit less than half of the reduction, and most of that is the remainder is across a combination of other business growth and timing the key maintenance.

因此，當您考慮中點時，我們將資本從大約 7.5 億美元減少到 5.5 億美元。我想再次指出，從維護的角度來看，我們的資本支出約為 3.5 億美元，而且我們仍在這種環境下進行略高於 D&A 的投資。因此，我們對我們的策略充滿信心，但我們希望確保我們也為那些不利的情況做好準備，並確保我們有效地部署它。我還要強調的是，德州的項目是最大的項目，但它的削減量仍略低於一半，其餘大部分是其他業務成長和關鍵維護時間的結合。

Okay. And then if I could ask you, I know in the sort of March conference season you had some concern over March orders, and then it sort of turned out that they were, I guess, better than feared or better than expected. I'm not sure which it is, but I'm just curious what happened there, because usually when there starts to be hiccups in the order book, they don't reverse. Any color there?

好的。然後，如果我可以問您，我知道在三月的會議季節，您對三月的訂單有些擔心，但結果證明，它們比擔心的或預期的要好。我不確定是哪一個，但我只是好奇那裡發生了什麼，因為通常當訂單簿開始出現問題時，它們不會逆轉。有顏色嗎？

Yeah. So we were certainly -- with all the trade talk, even in the first quarter, you have to remember, we still had 20% tariffs being put in place in China, et cetera. There was a lot of caution that developed around customers and what they wanted to order, and so we were reading into that as we were getting into March and then frankly just surprised in how people sort of bought more.

是的。因此，我們當然——儘管有各種貿易談判，但你必須記住，即使在第一季度，我們仍然對中國徵收了 20% 的關稅，等等。人們對顧客以及他們想要訂購的東西產生了很大的謹慎，所以當我們進入三月時，我們就開始關注這一點，然後坦率地說，我們對人們如何購買更多東西感到驚訝。

I think it wasn't really a lot of pre-tariff buying. I'm sure there was a little bit of that at the end of March, but what's comforting around that question is April orders are similar to March. So if they were really pre-buying, you would have seen a drop-off in April as you've gone from March. We've seen that before in our past, and right now we're not seeing that, so that's encouraging.

我認為關稅實施前的購買量實際上並不多。我確信三月底有一點這樣的情況，但令人欣慰的是，四月的訂單與三月的訂單相似。因此，如果他們真的在預購，那麼你會看到 4 月的銷量從 3 月開始出現下降。我們過去曾見過這種情況，但現在我們還沒有看到這種情況，所以這令人鼓舞。

New order books are holding up in April. May looks okay. June is just too far away for us to really assess when it comes to sort of our order visibility. But I do think we're in solid shape, but there is uncertainty risk, obviously, in June with how all these discussions around the world go.

四月新訂單維持穩定。梅看起來還不錯。六月還太遠了，我們無法真正評估訂單的可見性。但我確實認為我們的情況很穩固，但顯然，隨著 6 月世界各地所有這些討論的進展，存在不確定性風險。

Let's have the next question, please.

請讓我們討論下一個問題。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. You abandoned your annual earnings guidance, but you're still guiding for annual cash flow. Why is that? Why would the cash flow for the year be more forecastable than the earnings, or why do you have more certainty around the cash flow?

非常感謝。您放棄了年度獲利預測，但仍在預測年度現金流。這是為什麼？為什麼年度現金流比收益更可預測，或者為什麼您對現金流更確定？

Yeah. Good morning, Jeff. Thanks for the question. Obviously, as we've highlighted in our prepared remarks and even in the Q&A this morning, it is highly uncertain, and we've pivoted to an emphasis on cash generation ahead of a potential recession.

是的。早安，傑夫。謝謝你的提問。顯然，正如我們在準備好的演講稿甚至今天早上的問答環節中所強調的那樣，情況具有很大的不確定性，在潛在的經濟衰退來臨之前，我們已經將重點轉向現金創造。

As I think through the levers that we have, whether it be the cash earnings, obviously, but we have a broader set of working capital and operating set of solutions, and also how we manage variable resources across our global asset base. In that, we've got flexibility that I think gives us a narrower range on the cash outcomes versus all the accounting ramifications that comes in with an earnings estimate when you're trying to deal with these choices.

我認為，透過我們擁有的槓桿，無論是現金收益，還是更廣泛的營運資金和營運解決方案，以及我們如何管理全球資產基礎上的可變資源。在這方面，我認為，當我們試圖處理這些選擇時，我們具有靈活性，這使我們的現金結果範圍比收益估計帶來的所有會計後果更窄。

As we've highlighted, if the trade dispute is resolved in the short term, ultimately we'll have higher cash earnings and less working capital actions. If it's drawn out, then ultimately it could cause a recession. But the dynamic between EBITDA and the OCF that we're going to deliver ultimately will be based on that trade scenario. But we do have higher confidence, and I think we've done that across multiple economic environments in the past.

正如我們所強調的，如果貿易爭端在短期內得到解決，最終我們將獲得更高的現金收益和更少的營運資本行動。如果這種情況持續下去，最終可能會導致經濟衰退。但我們最終要實現的 EBITDA 和 OCF 之間的動態將基於該貿易情景。但我們確實有更高的信心，我認為我們過去在多種經濟環境中都做到了這一點。

Yeah. I think that we're really proud of the fact that we try and look forward and see what's coming and be prepared to take whatever actions are necessary to weather storms. I mean, this industry has been facing a lot of storms over the last seven years, and it's well-machined on how to react to it at Eastman.

是的。我認為，我們為自己努力展望未來、預見未來並準備採取一切必要行動來渡過難關而感到自豪。我的意思是，這個行業在過去七年裡經歷了許多風暴，而伊士曼已經為如何應對這些風暴做好了充分的準備。

The reality is if the focus on cash is not needed because the economy is snapping back and recovering, then that's upside. It's easy to run the plants harder in the back half of the year and catch up. We have the excess capacity at this point. So I think this is a prudent way to approach things, and we'll obviously adjust as the macroeconomy and trade-related matters evolve.

事實是，如果由於經濟正在迅速恢復而不再需要關注現金，那麼這就是好處。在下半年加大工廠的運作力道並趕上進度是很容易的。目前我們的產能過剩。因此，我認為這是一種謹慎的處理方式，我們顯然會隨著宏觀經濟和貿易相關問題的發展而進行調整。

And then secondly, what you did is you estimated the tariff impact at $30 million in the second quarter. How do you calculate that? Is that lost sales? Is that tariffs that you're paying? Could you describe where it seems that you're paying the tariffs or whether you're being reimbursed for your customers? Where are the tariffs actually touching you? And is it China mainly, or is it other regions as well? Can you sort of get to the bottom of this $30 million number and what it might be in the third quarter if things continue?

其次，您估計第二季關稅的影響為 3000 萬美元。你如何計算呢？這是否意味著銷售損失？這就是您所支付的關稅嗎？您能否描述一下您支付關稅的情況，或者您是否為您的客戶報銷了關稅？關稅實際上對你產生了哪些影響？主要是中國嗎，還是也包括其他地區？您能否弄清楚這個 3000 萬美元的數字以及如果情況繼續發展下去，第三季的數字會是多少？

So Jeff, when it comes to the impacts on the tariffs in the second quarter, it is an impact on volume as opposed to an impact on duty. So when you have a 125% duty into China and there's a hope that the trade will get settled, in between the two countries, customers don't want to buy a lot with that adder. So that's the impact you're seeing in Fibers where we're projecting less sale of flake for the tow JV, less Naia textile fibers being purchased, and why people wait to see what plays out in this quarter. So that's what happened there.

因此，傑夫，當談到第二季度關稅的影響時，它是對數量的影響，而不是對關稅的影響。因此，當對中國徵收 125% 的關稅，並且希望兩國之間的貿易能夠解決時，消費者就不想以這樣的稅率購買大量商品。這就是您在纖維業務中看到的影響，我們預計絲束合資企業的薄片銷售量將減少，購買的 Naia 紡織纖維將減少，這就是人們等待觀察本季情況的原因。那裡發生的事情就是這樣的。

Same thing I said in AFP. The high-value cellulose additives that go into all these coatings and pharma applications, some other applications, those customers carry a huge amount of inventory because it is such an important product for the product they make, and it's such a small percentage of the total cost of these products in these cellulose additives in AFP that they're not going to take any risk. And so they have inventory, months of it, and so they can, through this quarter, just not order. So they are pulling inventory down.

我在法新社也說過同樣的話。所有這些塗料和製藥應用以及其他一些應用中都用到高價值的纖維素添加劑，這些客戶持有大量庫存，因為這些添加劑對於他們生產的產品來說非常重要，而且這些添加劑在 AFP 的這些纖維素添加劑產品的總成本中所佔比例很小，所以他們不會冒任何風險。因此他們有數月的庫存，因此他們可以在本季度不訂購。因此他們正在減少庫存。

And then, the same dynamic in Advanced Materials, but just less, because we have a lot of inventory available in that marketplace. We make it in interlayers there. I already explained everything around PF and SP. The real risk there is ability to sell what they make as a finished product back to China, and I think everyone in that whole supply chain is trying to figure out what they're going to do on that dynamic. So it's a volume hit as opposed to a tariff hit.

然後，先進材料領域也存在同樣的動態，但較少，因為我們在該市場上有大量庫存。我們在那裡將其製成夾層。我已經解釋了有關 PF 和 SP 的所有內容。真正的風險在於他們能否將生產的成品賣回中國，我認為整個供應鏈中的每個人都在試圖弄清楚在這種動態下他們會做什麼。因此，這是產量的衝擊，而不是關稅的衝擊。

I mean, what I'd also note is, while we have this exposure because we make a lot of product here in the US and we export around the world, we're also vertically integrated and this is a very unique competitive advantage for us on that integration, which is most of the raw materials that we use across the company are sourced in North America. So we're not facing much tariff risk of what we have to pay for on the raw materials side of things.

我的意思是，我還想指出的是，雖然我們有這種曝光度，因為我們在美國生產大量產品並出口到世界各地，但我們也是垂直整合的，這是我們在整合方面非常獨特的競爭優勢，即我們整個公司使用的大多數原材料都來自北美。因此，我們在原料方面所支付的關稅風險並不大。

Even PX, which we buy around the world, we have sourcing from all countries around the world so that we can flex on where we get our PX, and obviously, PX prices are very low right now. So we don't, like a lot of companies who buy a lot of raw materials, but may not have as much exports to China, where they're having that problem, they have to manage, or you're buying auto parts in the auto industry or whatever else. We don't have that issue. Our issue is this primarily China-related matter right now as far as the second quarter is concerned. And I think I already addressed how it trends into the back half of the year in my answer ahead of you.

即使是我們在世界各地購買的 PX，我們也從世界各地的國家採購，以便我們可以靈活地選擇 PX 的來源，而且顯然，現在 PX 的價格非常低。因此，我們不會像許多購買大量原材料但可能沒有那麼多出口到中國的公司那樣，遇到這個問題，他們必須設法解決，或者在汽車行業或其他行業購買汽車零件。我們沒有這個問題。就第二季而言，我們現在的問題主要是與中國有關的問題。我認為我已經在前面的回答中討論了今年下半年的趨勢。

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

好的，太好了。太感謝了。

Kevin McCarthy, VRP.

凱文·麥卡錫，VRP。

Yes, thank you, and good morning. Mark, I wanted to come back to the discussion around the Fibers segment and the issue of destocking. I think what you've said in the past, and you alluded to again this morning, is that a high percentage of the volume is under contract. And obviously, the implication of that is that the business should be relatively stable volumetrically.

是的，謝謝，早安。馬克，我想回到有關纖維部分和去庫存問題的討論。我認為您過去曾說過，並且今天早上再次提到，很大一部分交易量都是按照合約進行的。顯然，這意味著業務量應該相對穩定。

So I'm trying to weigh those two things, more severe destocking and contractual protection. And so maybe you can kind of talk through, the first-quarter volume was down 12%. Do you think that could be indicative of the year? Or do you have sort of take-or-pay provisions in some of these contracts, whereby maybe there'll be destocking in the first half, but then customers become obligated to meet minimum volume requirements as the year progresses? Any thoughts along those lines to frame out or bracket the volume risk would be much appreciated.

因此，我正在嘗試權衡這兩件事，更嚴厲的去庫存和合約保護。所以也許您可以說一下，第一季的銷量下降了 12%。您認為這可以代表今年的情況嗎？或者你們在某些合約中是否有某種照付不議的條款，即可能在上半年會減少庫存，但隨著時間的推移，客戶有義務滿足最低數量要求？任何沿著這一思路思考以界定或限定數量風險的想法都將受到高度讚賞。

Sure. So on the volume side of the equation, price, by the way, is just pretty predictable and locked in. So this is really a volume question for this year than a price question with these contracts.

當然。因此，從數量的角度來看，價格是相當可預測和鎖定的。因此，這實際上是今年的數量問題，而不是這些合約的價格問題。

But on the volume, there's always a band of volume that customers can buy within from a low to high range. Typically, the middle range is what they're aiming to do. The range is what they're aiming to do. And we have customers buying in the first and second quarter at the low end of the volume rate. So they're not violating the contract. They're just at the low end of the band across the customer base.

但就成交量而言，總是存在著一個從低到高的成交量區間，顧客可以在這個區間內購買。通常，他們的目標是達到中等水平。這個範圍就是他們的目標。我們的客戶在第一季和第二季以較低的採購量購買。所以他們沒有違反合約。他們只是處於整個客戶群的低端。

What's changed, I'd say, from December and early January to now is it's a broader set of customers who are now destocking than what we originally had expected in January to where we are today. So no one's sort of violating a contract, but there's just more customers moving to do some destocking and move to the lower end of their band than we were originally notified, if you will, in January as we built the forecast in versus where we are now.

我想說，從 12 月和 1 月初到現在發生的變化是，現在去庫存的客戶群比我們 1 月最初預期的要廣泛。因此，沒有人違反合同，只是有更多的客戶開始減少庫存，並轉向其價格區間的低端，而不是像我們最初在一月份根據現在的情況進行預測時所通知的那樣。

So as you think about it and you're going back in the second half, this just comes to question with each customer and just how much inventory do they really have to destock and where they would then start moving back up into the band to normal or staying at the lower level. And I think that it's going to be a challenging year. I would expect maybe it gets modestly better in the back half versus the first half as some customers address their inventory issues. But we're just going to have to see how it evolves.

因此，當您思考這個問題並回顧下半年時，您就會對每個客戶提出疑問，他們到底需要去掉多少庫存，以及他們將從哪裡開始回到正常水平或保持在較低水平。我認為這將是充滿挑戰的一年。我預計，隨著一些客戶解決庫存問題，下半年的情況可能會比上半年略有改善。但我們只需要觀察它如何演變。

Okay. And then secondly, if I may, on the subject of tariffs, I appreciate the various headwinds that you articulated. I am curious, though, are there examples of product lines within Eastman's portfolio where the tariffs may be helping you in Chemical Intermediates, for example, or otherwise? Or is that just simply not the case and the overall economic environment impact is sort of overwhelming any such benefits?

好的。其次，如果可以的話，關於關稅問題，我理解您所闡述的各種不利因素。不過，我很好奇，伊士曼的產品組合中是否有產品線的例子，例如關稅可能對化學中間體或其他產品線有所幫助？或者事實並非如此，整體經濟環境的影響在某種程度上壓倒了任何此類好處？

Certainly. So I would say the opportunities are still emerging. So it's early days to sort of have a definitive view on this, as these tariffs are still being debated and implemented.

當然。所以我想說機會仍在不斷出現。因此，現在對此有明確的看法還為時過早，因為這些關稅仍在討論和實施中。

Performance Films, for example, does have upside in North America. We are by far the largest player in the Performance Films business, but we still have a lot of different competitors out there. All of our product is made in the US, so we are advantaged in having the largest scale US manufacturing base. Our competitors are sourcing some film domestically, but a lot of it is being sourced abroad, including places like China, et cetera, where they're facing tariffs. So we think there's going to be opportunities there to win some share, but it sort of depends on where the auto market sales are going and how those net together in the short term, but certainly a place where, relative to the market, we will do better.

例如，表演電影在北美確實有上升空間。我們是迄今為止性能薄膜行業最大的參與者，但我們仍然面臨許多不同的競爭對手。我們所有的產品都是在美國製造的，因此我們擁有美國最大規模的製造基地的優勢。我們的競爭對手在國內採購一些底片，但許多底片都是從國外採購的，包括中國等面臨關稅的地方。因此，我們認為我們將有機會贏得一些份額，但這在某種程度上取決於汽車市場的銷售走向以及短期內這些銷售如何結合在一起，但肯定的是，相對於市場而言，我們會做得更好。

In Specialty Plastics, there are definitely opportunities where we have imported products that we have to compete against. So the shrink labels around the packaging for beverage bottles, as an example, even some of the consumer durables, there are manufacturing capabilities in the US that some of our customers have and they're ramping that up and we're going to sort of see growth there in volume that they have that could be advantageous for us.

在特種塑膠領域，我們確實有機會進口我們必須競爭的產品。以飲料瓶包裝周圍的收縮標籤為例，甚至一些耐用消費品，我們的一些客戶在美國擁有製造能力，他們正在加大生產力度，我們將看到他們在美國產量的增長，這對我們有利。

The ag space is another place where we're going to have opportunity. Our ag customers are facing a lot of competition with formulated ag crop protection products being imported and really, frankly, dumped in America at very low prices. So the tariffs are going to create some relief for them and ability to sort of regain some market share. So that's another place where I think we'll see some benefits about our customers growing relative to exports out of China and some other countries.

農業領域是我們將擁有機會的另一個領域。我們的農業客戶面臨激烈的競爭，配方農作物保護產品被進口，坦白說，以非常低的價格傾銷到美國。因此，關稅將為他們帶來一些緩解，並使他們能夠重新獲得一些市場份額。因此，我認為，相對於中國和其他一些國家的出口，我們將看到我們的客戶從中受益。

Even in building construction, there are opportunities like floor tiles, which use our plasticizers. A lot of that got offshored to China and supplied by Chinese manufacturers that make DOTP. We have a number of customers who are now looking to bring that production back here. This is a place where capacity does exist to ramp up in US manufacturing.

即使在建築施工中，也有機會使用我們的塑化劑，例如地磚。其中許多都轉移到了中國，並由生產 DOTP 的中國製造商供應。我們有許多客戶現在希望將生產帶回這裡。這裡確實存在著提升美國製造業產能的地方。

So there's a bunch of places. It's not uniform across the portfolio, and I think ultimately there will be price benefits across the CI portfolio when you get some additional settlement of just the competitive dynamics that are going on right now. So the CI is a little complicated because you have a lot of companies that were exporting chemicals and now they can't export them as easily. And so there's a dynamic there that's settling itself out. But over time, there should be upside.

所以有很多地方。整個投資組合並不統一，我認為，當你對目前正在發生的競爭動態進行一些額外的解決時，最終整個 CI 投資組合都會有價格優勢。因此，CI 有點複雜，因為有很多公司以前出口化學品，但現在他們無法輕易出口。因此，那裡的動態正在逐漸穩定下來。但隨著時間的推移，應該會有好處。

Perfect. Thanks, Mark.

完美的。謝謝，馬克。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Hello. Hey, good morning. I don't know what happened, but given the number of ways things can go, I certainly can't fault the pulling of annual guidance. I want to focus on the second quarter. As I think about Eastman more of a -- less cyclical than most companies that I follow, that range of $1.70 to $1.90 is rather large. So can you talk about the kind of the puts and takes to hit the low end and the high end? What are you embedding in terms of that wide range?

你好。嘿，早安。我不知道發生了什麼，但考慮到事情可能出現的多種情況，我當然不能指責年度指導的出台。我想重點關注第二季。我認為伊士曼的周期性比我關注的大多數公司都要小，所以 1.70 美元到 1.90 美元的範圍相當大。那麼，您能談談達到低端和高端需要付出哪些努力嗎？就這麼廣泛的範圍而言，您嵌入了什麼？

To put it simply, it's a question around demand in June and, to some degree, May. But with the uncertainty of everything we've discussed on this call, how orders trend with customers is just heavily connected to that. I mean, we're very encouraged that April's holding up, which is great. So we're off to a solid start to the quarter. But how customers behave and how many orders get placed creates the range on that uncertainty. I mean, there are other smaller things around -- depends on natural gas prices and currency and this, that, and the other. But the principal question is just a demand question in the back half of the quarter.

簡單來說，這是一個有關六月需求的問題，某種程度上也有關五月的需求。但由於我們在這次電話會議上討論的所有內容都存在不確定性，因此客戶的訂單趨勢與此密切相關。我的意思是，我們對四月的堅持感到非常鼓舞，這很好。因此，我們本季有一個良好的開始。但客戶的行為方式以及訂單數量造成了這種不確定性。我的意思是，還有其他一些較小的因素——取決於天然氣價格和貨幣等等。但主要問題只是本季後半段的需求問題。

Interesting. I want to drill into the positive take on April trending in line with March. As I might have thought that historically April -- I don't want to be too granular, but I would have thought that April would have been a little bit better than March given building and construction, et cetera. But it seems like it's kind of one for one. And is that typically the norm at Eastman?

有趣的。我想深入探討四月份與三月趨勢一致的正面看法。我可能認為，從歷史上看，四月份的情況——我不想說得太詳細，但我認為，考慮到建築業等因素，四月份的情況會比三月好一點。但這似乎是一對一的。這在 Eastman 是常態嗎？

It is typical for April to be similar to March in a good year or a solid year. I mean, not a great year or a bad year. What happens -- you've got to remember, the result of a quarter is three months. So every quarter typically starts out where the beginning is weak and it gets stronger through the quarter.

在豐收年或穩健年，四月的表現通常與三月相似。我的意思是，這不是一個好年頭，也不是一個壞年頭。會發生什麼事——你必須記住，一個季度的結果是三個月的。因此，每季通常都是從一開始的疲軟開始，然後隨著季度的推移逐漸走強。

So the last quarter, March, June, September all tend to be the stronger month of the year -- of the quarter. And so the fact that April is similar to March, which is a strong month, is good. So you're building off of that performance because March was better than January and April -- I'm sorry, January and February. So I would put this in sort of a normal start to a Q2 as opposed to good or bad.

因此，最後一個季度，即三月、六月和九月，往往是一年中表現較強的月份，也就是季度中的月份。因此，四月的表現與三月類似，是個強勁的月份，這是件好事。所以你正在從這一表現中獲益，因為三月的表現比一月和四月好——對不起，是一月份和二月。因此，我認為這是第二季度的正常開始，而不是好或壞。

Okay, got you. And then just following up on a lot of discussion on volumes in tow, obviously, but back to your earlier point about how small tow is as a percent of the cigarette and so raising tariffs, raising the price by 145% or something like that, who is -- when you sell to CNTC, are they paying -- will they be paying that tariff and you're maintaining price? Or conversely, if you're having to eat some of the tariff or what have you, what would prevent you from raising price given how small it is as a percent of the total?

好的，明白了。然後顯然只是跟進了大量關於拖曳量的討論，但回到你之前的觀點，關於拖帶在香煙中所佔的百分比有多小，因此提高關稅，將價格提高 145% 或類似的數字，當你賣給 CNTC 時，他們會支付嗎？他們會支付那項關稅嗎？你會維持價格嗎？或者相反，如果您必須承擔部分關稅或其他費用，考慮到其佔總關稅的比例很小，什麼會阻止您提高價格？

That's a great question. So technically, when you're going into a country, you're the one paying the duty and you have to decide to raise the price to cover the duty or not in the way that that works. The conversation -- so the joint venture between Chinese National Tobacco Company and us has an obligation to buy flake from us, but they can jointly decide with us that if the price is too high for the flake that they can -- they will reduce production if it's not economic at that price to sell the tow.

這是一個很好的問題。因此從技術上講，當你進入一個國家時，你就是支付關稅的人，你必須決定是否提高價格來支付關稅。對話——因此，中國煙草總公司和我們的合資企業有義務向我們購買煙片，但他們可以與我們共同決定，如果煙片價格過高，他們可以——如果以這個價格出售煙絲不經濟，他們就會減少產量。

And so that is where the volume risk comes with this flake sales is that price is much higher than the other plants that the CNTC has. Remember, they have a spectrum of joint ventures making tow. All joint ventures with us or a lot with Celanese and some other players. Those are making both the flake and the tow in China. So we're the only ones importing flake into China. So they can flex up the run rate of those other assets and reduce the run rate of this asset if our flake is too expensive.

這就是薄片銷售的數量風險所在，因為其價格比 CNTC 的其他工廠高得多。請記住，他們擁有一系列生產拖車的合資企業。所有合資企業都是與我們一起建立的，或者很多是與塞拉尼斯和其他一些公司建立的。那些公司在中國生產薄片和絲束。所以我們是唯一一家向中國進口薄片的公司。因此，如果我們的產品太貴，他們可以提高其他資產的運作率，並降低該資產的運作率。

Okay, got you. Fingers crossed that 90 days from now on your next call, this whole conversation will have been moot and we'll be back to normal. But thanks so much.

好的，明白了。當祈禱從現在起 90 天後您再次打電話時，整個對話已經沒有意義，我們將恢復正常。但非常感謝。

Thank you, Frank. And it's a good point, Frank. I mean, if we get these things, all this tariff to moderate back to sort of more rational levels and let's just say 10% to 20% range versus where we're at now, I don't think we should fantasize about everything going to zero. I do think things can normalize and get a lot better and we would be able to snap back towards our original forecast for the back half of the year from January. But you do need to get some of this extreme tension taken out of the system.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。這是一個很好的觀點，弗蘭克。我的意思是，如果我們能把這些事情做好，把所有的關稅調整回更合理的水平，比如說比現在低 10% 到 20% 的範圍，我認為我們不應該幻想一切都降為零。我確實認為情況可以恢復正常並變得更好，我們將能夠從一月開始恢復到我們對下半年的最初預測。但你確實需要從系統中消除一些極端的緊張。

Let's go to the next question, please.

請讓我們進入下一個問題。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Hey. Good morning. Mark, you sort of gave a soft recession sort of outlook, I guess, in your prepared remarks. How do you think the Eastman portfolio should hold up or perform if the US does go into a recession? In '23, your volumes took a pretty big hit for Advanced Materials and AFP, but a lot of destocking there. Where do you think volumes would sort of mirror if we do go that route, unfortunately, this year?

嘿。早安.馬克，我想，在你準備好的發言中，你給了一個軟衰退的展望。如果美國真的陷入經濟衰退，您認為伊士曼的投資組合應該如何維持或表現良好？23年，先進材料和AFP的銷售量受到了相當大的打擊，但那裡的庫存也大量減少。如果我們不幸在今年走這條路，您認為交易量會如何反映？

That's a good question, Mike, and I think there's a lot of mitigating actions we're taking. But to answer your question first, I think that the demand situation this year will be considerably different and less potentially than what happened in the '22 timeframe.

這是個好問題，麥克，我認為我們正在採取很多緩解措施。但首先回答你的問題，我認為今年的需求情況將與 22 年期間的情況有很大不同，而且可能性較小。

So we've been in a manufacturing recession since the summer of 2022, and we have not come out of it. I mean, demand has been challenged, as we all know, with the inflation and the interest rate hikes, et cetera, especially on the consumer discretionary demand side of the equation, cars, homes, autos. We're still below 2019 levels. And at the same time, there's been no driver for restocking in these markets.

因此，自 2022 年夏季以來，我們一直處於製造業衰退之中，至今仍未走出衰退。我的意思是，眾所周知，通貨膨脹、利率上調等因素對需求造成了挑戰，尤其是對非必需消費品的需求，如汽車、房屋、汽車等。我們仍低於 2019 年的水準。同時，這些市場也沒有補充庫存的動機。

So the inventory levels that are sitting around the planet right now are not that high. They're at appropriate levels for this low-demand scenario. And people have only had a couple of months to react to this tariff risk. So there's not a lot of time to sort of build inventory ahead of this tariff risk through the first quarter, and you're worried about recession. So everyone's trying to balance just how much inventory do I want to have.

因此，目前全球的庫存水準並沒有那麼高。對於這種低需求情境來說，它們處於適當的水平。人們只有幾個月的時間來應對這種關稅風險。因此，在第一季面臨關稅風險之前，沒有太多的時間來建立庫存，你擔心經濟衰退。所以每個人都在試圖平衡我想要擁有多少庫存。

What's happened is the geographic location of inventory has changed a lot. So anyone who had blenders and TVs in China got them in the US, but that doesn't mean they made twice as much. And same thing, we got materials into China. So materials have moved around, but I don't think we're sitting on a huge amount of inventory right now for a destocking event, and I don't think demand has a big step-down because we're already at a relatively low level of demand compared to a normal recession.

實際情況是庫存的地理位置發生了很大變化。因此，在中國擁有攪拌機和電視機的人都可以在美國買到，但這並不意味著他們的產量是中國的兩倍。同樣，我們也將材料運到了中國。因此，材料已經移動，但我不認為我們現在有大量庫存用於去庫存事件，而且我也不認為需求出現大幅下降，因為與正常的經濟衰退相比，我們的需求已經處於相對較低的水平。

So there are extreme differences obviously between the US and China economies being dislocated at these tariff rates that you got to then factor in. So hard to put it all together, but you just don't have that sort of mountain of risk in absolute volumes, I think, this time relative to where we were in '22. So I think that's important to keep in mind.

因此，在這些關稅稅率的影響下，美國和中國經濟顯然存在著極大的差異，你必須將其考慮在內。把所有因素綜合起來確實很難，但我認為，與 2022 年相比，這次的絕對風險並沒有那麼大。所以我認為牢記這一點很重要。

The second thing I'd say is, there will be a tailwind on the price-cost relationship if you go into recession. Similar to the demand situation, I don't think the tailwind will be as significant because we've already been at sort of stress levels in pricing with raw materials. But I do think you'll have a tailwind there to offset that demand dynamic.

我想說的第二件事是，如果陷入經濟衰退，價格與成本的關係就會出現順風。與需求情況類似，我認為順風不會那麼明顯，因為我們在原材料定價方面已經處於某種壓力水平。但我確實認為你會有一個順風來抵銷這種需求動態。

And there's just a lot you can do to manage through this in the actions you take. So as we've said, we've already focused on making sure we're going to be sort of cash generative in how we're performing. There's a whole list of mitigating actions around tariffs I've already mentioned. There is still innovation that's allowing us to grow above markets. The commercial excellence of our teams is phenomenal in defending pricing and value for products, which we've demonstrated over the last three years and will continue to do.

您可以透過採取多種行動來解決這個問題。正如我們所說，我們已經專注於確保我們的經營業績能夠產生現金。我已經提到了一系列有關關稅的緩解措施。創新仍能讓我們超越市場而成長。我們團隊在維護產品定價和價值方面表現出了非凡的商業卓越性，這一點我們在過去三年中已經得到證明，並將繼續這樣做。

And methanolysis is a unique upside to Eastman, where we've got that $75 million EBITDA as a way to offset some of all these challenges we've been talking about. And of course, we'll be prudent on the CapEx front so that, from a free cash flow point of view, we're in good shape. So a lot of things that we're doing to manage through it. I think I would not recommend just running a proxy analysis on demand for '22 and '23 relative to this scenario for the reasons I've just mentioned.

甲醇分解是伊士曼的一個獨特優勢，我們擁有 7500 萬美元的 EBITDA，可以抵消我們一直在談論的所有這些挑戰。當然，我們會在資本支出方面保持謹慎，以便從自由現金流的角度來看，我們的狀況良好。因此，我們正在做很多事情來解決這個問題。基於我剛才提到的原因，我認為我不會建議僅針對這種情況對 22 年和 23 年的需求進行代理分析。

Got it. And as a quick follow-up, if the tariffs are resolved and we get back to that 8%, 8.75% run rate for the second half, what was the volume assumptions that AFP and AM could do? Like low, mid, single digits? Is that sort of what we were hoping for initially?

知道了。作為一個快速的後續問題，如果關稅問題得到解決並且我們下半年的運行率回到 8%、8.75%，那麼 AFP 和 AM 可以做的數量假設是什麼？例如低位、中位、個位數？這是否正是我們最初所希望的？

That's about right, Mike. I think that people are really draining stock right now to avoid the tariffs, which means inventory is going to be a lot lower than what is normal if we're going back to a normal economy. So you would hope in markets continue to come back to some stability.

沒錯，麥克。我認為人們現在確實在消耗庫存以避免關稅，這意味著如果我們要恢復正常經濟，庫存將比正常水平低得多。所以你會希望市場繼續恢復穩定。

There's going to be friction from all these tariffs. So if we're at 10% to 20% tariff, there is going to be some consumer friction around that and what people can afford to pay or people managing headcount costs if their companies are absorbing the hit that will have an impact on the economy. But you'll have a restocking, bringing it back to more normal levels that will certainly help volumes in the second half be better.

所有這些關稅都會產生摩擦。因此，如果關稅達到 10% 到 20%，消費者就會產生一些摩擦，他們不知道該付多少錢，或者人們不知道如何管理員工成本，如果他們的公司正在承受衝擊，這將對經濟產生影響。但你會進行補貨，使其恢復到更正常的水平，這肯定有助於下半年的銷量更好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let's make the next question the last one, please.

請將下一個問題作為最後一個問題。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

Hey, guys. This is James Cannon on for Josh. Thanks for taking my question. Just given all the uncertainty in the market, I just wanted to focus on some of the more controllable items and looking at the guidance that baked in the $20 million headwind from turnarounds. Could you just help level set how the turnaround schedule is expected to look in the back half?

嘿，大家好。詹姆斯·坎農 (James Cannon) 代替喬什 (Josh) 發言。感謝您回答我的問題。考慮到市場中的所有不確定性，我只想關註一些更可控的項目，並查看在扭虧為盈帶來的 2000 萬美元逆風中所蘊含的指導。您能否協助設定預計後半段的周轉時間表？

Yeah. So what I would highlight, it is unique for us to have the scheduled turnarounds here in the first half. In Q2 specifically, so we've got the sequential $20 million headwind. I would say, sequentially into Q3, it will be at similar levels, and then Q4 would actually be an improvement. So we'll basically have some higher cost in Q2 versus Q4. Obviously, in this uncertain environment, that also helps us get ahead as we look at inventory and generating cash flow because taking actions here in Q2 and Q3 ultimately defines the year-end cash.

是的。因此，我想強調的是，我們在上半年實現預定的扭轉局面是獨一無二的。具體來說，在第二季度，我們面臨連續 2000 萬美元的逆風。我想說，進入第三季度後，情況將保持相似的水平，而第四季度實際上會有所改善。因此，與第四季相比，第二季的成本基本上會更高。顯然，在這種不確定的環境中，這也有助於我們在查看庫存和產生現金流時取得領先，因為在第二季和第三季採取的行動最終決定了年底的現金。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Did you have a follow-up question? Okay. Thanks, everyone, for joining us. Okay. Yeah, appreciate it.

您還有其他問題嗎？好的。感謝大家加入我們。好的。是的，非常感謝。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us. I appreciate you joining this call. I hope you have a great rest of your day.

感謝大家加入我們。感謝您參加本次電話會議。我希望你今天剩下的時間過得愉快。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。