伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the fourth-quarter and full year 2024 Eastman conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼 2024 年第四季及全年電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製。本次電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。

We will now turn it over to Mr. Greg Riddle, Eastman, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將把話題交給伊士曼投資者關係部門的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Harry, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe and Emily Alexander from the Investor Relations team.

謝謝你，哈利，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起通話的有董事會主席兼執行長馬克‧科斯塔 (Mark Costa)；威利麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain)，執行副總裁兼財務長；以及投資者關係團隊的 Jake LaRoe 和 Emily Alexander。

Yesterday, after market close, we posted our fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website, eastman.com.

昨天，收盤後，我們在我們網站 eastman.com 的投資者部分發布了我們的第四季度和 2024 年全年財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件、我們的幻燈片和相關的準備好的評論。

Before we begin, I'll cover two items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements, including our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to our future expectations are or will be detailed in our fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results news release during this call in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for full year 2023 and the Form 10-K to be filed for full year 2024.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到一些前瞻性的陳述，包括我們的計劃和期望。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與我們未來預期相關的某些因素已經或將在本次電話會議中前面的幻燈片和準備好的評論中的第四季度和 2024 年全年財務業績新聞稿中以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的 2023 年全年 10-K 表格和即將提交的 2024 年全年 10-K 表格。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items are available in the fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results news release. As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we will now go straight into Q&A.

其次，本報告中提到的收益不包括某些非核心項目和非常規項目。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標及其他相關揭露的對賬，包括對排除和調整項目的描述，可在 2024 年第四季度和全年財務業績新聞稿中查閱。由於我們昨晚已在我們的網站上發布了幻燈片和隨附的準備好的發言，現在我們將直接進入問答環節。

Harry, please let's start with our first question.

哈利，請我們開始第一個問題。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特（Josh Spector）

This is James Cannon on for Josh. I just wanted to jump in on the AM guidance. I think between the overall segment and what you're assuming for the Kingsport contribution. It seems like you're assuming a decline in the base business. And I just was wondering if you could unpack some of the moving pieces there.

詹姆斯‧坎農 (James Cannon) 取代喬許 (Josh)。我只是想了解 AM 指導。我認為，在整體部分和你對金斯波特貢獻的假設之間。看起來你假設基礎業務會下滑。我只是想知道您是否可以解開那裡的一些移動部件。

Yes, sure. First of all, AM's had a great success in recovering earnings from a challenging environment in '23 through '24. And it really is an impressive recovery of the actual core business and Advanced Materials in '24, as we fell short on sort of our circular earnings goals in that year. So the macro economy is certainly challenging right now, as we all know.

是的，當然。首先，AM 在 23 至 24 年的充滿挑戰的環境中成功恢復了盈利。2024年，實際核心業務和先進材料的復甦確實令人印象深刻，因為我們當年未能實現循環獲利目標。眾所周知，宏觀經濟現在確實充滿挑戰。

And lack of destocking certainly helped last year as we move into this year, you really got a more stable flat market without that tailwind. So you have to create all of your own growth this year, which we're doing. So when you look at the growth that we're going to deliver in the circular platform is pretty substantial with that $75 million to $100 million guide for the company with $50 million of it being in Advanced Materials.

去年缺乏去庫存無疑有所幫助，進入今年，在沒有順風的情況下，市場確實更加穩定平穩。所以今年你必須自己創造所有成長，這正是我們正在做的。因此，當您看到我們在循環平台上實現的成長相當可觀時，該公司的指導金額為 7,500 萬至 1 億美元，其中 5,000 萬美元用於先進材料。

When you look at the innovation that we're creating that drove growth last year and will continue to drive growth this year through our innovation in our core business in a very flat market, I think, is, again, a testament to the power of our strategy and the value of the segment. But there are headwinds in the core business that sort of mitigate some of that volume growth within the core to your question.

當你看到我們在去年推動成長的創新，以及我們今年將在非常平坦的市場中透過核心業務的創新繼續推動成長時，我認為這再次證明了我們策略的力量和該領域的價值。但核心業務中存在一些阻力，這在一定程度上減輕了核心業務的銷售成長。

So we've got increasing natural gas prices across the company, and a good portion of that, shows up in Advanced Materials. You've got currency being a headwind and that a good portion of that shows up in Advanced Materials. So that's good portion of the 50 in natural gas and the 30 in currency. So that offset some of that volume and mix growth and sort of levels out the core earnings.

因此，我們全公司的天然氣價格都在上漲，其中很大一部分體現在先進材料上。貨幣成為逆風，其中很大一部分體現在先進材料領域。所以這佔了 50 天然氣和 30 貨幣的很大一部分。這樣就抵消了部分數量和組合成長，並在一定程度上平衡了核心收益。

But we still expect the segment overall to have very strong performance. And I think it's really well positioned when you think about the strength of that stability in the core, building with innovation on top of it and then how that then levers into more growth in 2026.

但我們仍然預期該領域整體將有非常強勁的表現。我認為，如果你考慮到核心穩定性的強度，在此基礎上進行創新，以及如何在 2026 年實現更多成長，那麼它的定位確實很有利。

I would also say that cost management is going to help this segment as well. So it's a combination of things that sort of flatten out the earnings growth in the core due to these new headwinds. But I don't think there's anything to be concerned about long term.

我還想說成本管理也將有助於這一部分。因此，這些新的不利因素造成了多種因素的綜合作用，導致核心業務的獲利成長趨於平穩。但我認為從長期來看沒有什麼好擔心的。

Okay. Got it. And then could you just frame for us what the Kingsport contribution look like in 4Q and maybe what you're assuming in 1Q?

好的。知道了。然後，您能否為我們描述金斯波特在第四季度的貢獻情況以及您對第一季的假設？

Yes. So as we look at how we ended the year, we came in modestly below the low end of the range that we gave for 2024. We continue to work through the higher cost associated with reduced uptime from earlier in the year. But in the fourth quarter, we demonstrated continual operational improvement and we've run well since we saw each of you in November.

是的。因此，當我們回顧這一年結束時的情況時，我們發現我們的業績略低於我們為 2024 年設定的範圍的低端。我們將繼續努力解決今年稍早正常運作時間減少所帶來的更高成本。但在第四季度，我們展示了持續的營運改進，自從 11 月見到你們以來，我們的運作一直很好。

We're at 85% DMT yield since our fall turnaround and uptime continues to improve. We continue setting new production levels since that last shutdown, and we're well positioned for strong operating leverage in 2025 from both higher production and reduced operational spend.

自秋季檢修以來，我們的 DMT 產量已達到 85%，正常運作時間也持續改善。自上次停產以來，我們繼續設定新的生產水平，並且透過提高產量和減少營運支出，我們預計在 2025 年實現強勁的營運槓桿。

I would add that all the success in this plant is a tremendous testament to the teams, the operators, the engineers, everyone who surrounded and built this plant and got it up and running. It's just extraordinary amount of effort that this team has invested to get such a complicated plant to do something so extraordinary to take basically garbage and turn it into high-quality virgin polymer is a real proof point for how Eastman can build extraordinarily advantaged technologies and build a long-term competitive advantage that I think will be very difficult for anyone to replicate. And the only reason that happens is all the people who've done such great work.

我想補充一點，工廠的所有成功都是對團隊、操作員、工程師以及所有參與建造和運營該工廠的人最大的褒揚。這個團隊投入了非凡的努力，讓如此複雜的工廠發揮如此非凡的作用，將垃圾轉化為高品質的原始聚合物，這真正證明了伊士曼如何能夠打造出極其先進的技術並建立起長期的競爭優勢，我認為這是任何人都難以複製的。而發生這種情況的唯一原因是所有做出如此偉大工作的人。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Thank you. Good morning, Mark, a couple of questions related to the new administration. First, on the Texas project, any concerns or thoughts on the DOE funding going forward and could that be a risk here?

謝謝。早安，馬克，我有幾個與新政府有關的問題。首先，關於德州項目，您對能源部未來的資助有什麼擔憂或想法嗎？

Sure, David. Thanks for the question. Obviously, we're paying very close attention to the new administration. First, our projects under contract with the DOE, and we've already received our first funds from the program, and so we feel like we're on a good track there.

當然，大衛。謝謝你的提問。顯然，我們非常密切關注新政府。首先，我們的專案與能源部簽訂了合同，而且我們已經從該計劃中收到了第一筆資金，因此我們覺得目前進展順利。

To back up for a moment, I want to sort of recognize and say, I really appreciate President Trump's focus on growing US manufacturing. I think it's incredibly important. I think a lot of us forget that you don't really actually have an economy without an industrial base, and that includes vertical integration to key raw materials.

稍微回顧一下，我想承認並說，我非常欣賞川普總統對發展美國製造業的關注。我認為這非常重要。我想很多人都忘了，沒有工業基礎，就沒有經濟，而工業基礎包括關鍵原料的垂直整合。

And that's really both not just for an economic reason, but also for our security, national security reason. And so if we reflect on where we are today in America, we're really at risk of losing American competitiveness that we've built over the last eight years. In a while sort of US consumption went up a lot over the last two decades, US manufacturing has declined.

這不僅是出於經濟原因，也是出於我們的安全和國家安全原因。所以，如果我們反思美國目前的狀況，我們確實面臨著失去過去八年所建立的美國競爭力的風險。過去二十年，美國消費量大幅成長，而美國製造業卻出現下滑。

So the idea of driving and supporting US manufacturing, I think, is an incredibly important priority. And when you think about our circular economy project, I think it fits perfectly with his agenda and what he's trying to accomplish on three different reasons.

因此，我認為推動和支持美國製造業是極為重要的優先事項。當你想到我們的循環經濟項目時，我認為它與他的議程以及他出於三個不同原因試圖實現的目標完全契合。

First, the circular investment is about building infrastructure in America and reshoring jobs and building supply chain resiliency. When you think about the products that come off of this facility for food packaging, medical and a variety of other vital consumer durables, we need to have that sort of resiliency in this country, and we're onshoring jobs basically from Asia to Texas.

首先，循環投資是關於在美國建立基礎設施、重新安置就業並建立供應鏈彈性。當你想到從該工廠生產的食品包裝、醫療和其他各種重要的耐用消費品時，我們國家需要有這種彈性，而我們基本上將工作從亞洲轉移到德克薩斯州。

We're also going to create a lot of jobs downstream of this as people sort of want to lever into reshoring manufacturing and supplying raw materials to them, and importantly, upstream of us. So as we make this investment, we create jobs and revenue for recycling infrastructure that feeds into this kind of facility and the others that need to be built in this country. And that creates a sustainable growth, not just in Texas, but across the country.

我們還將創造大量下游就業機會，因為人們希望利用回流製造業並為他們提供原材料，而且重要的是，回流到我們的上游。因此，當我們進行這項投資時，我們將為回收基礎設施創造就業機會和收入，這些基礎設施為此類設施以及這個國家需要建造的其他設施提供支援。這不僅在德克薩斯州，而且在全國範圍內帶來了可持續的增長。

The second factor is it actually creates energy independence. Plastic waste is basically oil sitting above ground and landfill. So you're using it as feedstock with a world scale advantage process and we have an advantaged cost position, if oil is above $60, so it's value creating in a meaningful way.

第二個因素是它實際上實現了能源獨立。塑膠廢物基本上是位於地面和垃圾掩埋場上方的油。因此，您可以將其用作具有世界規模優勢工藝的原料，並且如果油價高於 60 美元，我們就具有優勢的成本地位，因此它可以以有意義的方式創造價值。

And the third factor, of course, is the circular economy will create a long-term US competitive advantage because the circular economy is, by definition, defined as taking local plastic waste as feedstock from the local environment.

當然，第三個因素是循環經濟將為美國創造長期競爭優勢，因為循環經濟的定義是從當地環境中利用當地的塑膠廢棄物作為原料。

Imports obviously shouldn't count as recycled content because that's solving someone else's waste problem, not ours. And whether you're a Republican in or a Democrat, no one likes plastic waste. They all want it solved. Even Trump signed Save our Seas Act in the first term, showing that marine debris and impacts the environment are important to him on this topic. So I think that it fits his agenda well. We're very excited to be sort of doing this. I think, Eastman, frankly, as a company, fits his agenda well given how large of a US manufacturer.

進口顯然不應算是回收材料，因為那解決的是別人的廢棄物問題，而不是我們的。無論你是共和黨人還是民主黨人，沒有人喜歡塑膠垃圾。他們都希望這個問題能解決。就連川普也在第一任期簽署了《拯救我們的海洋法案》，表明海洋垃圾及其對環境的影響對他來說在這一問題上非常重要。所以我認為這很符合他的議程。我們非常高興能夠做這樣的事。坦白說，我認為，伊士曼作為一家美國製造商，非常符合他的議程。

No, very good. And just on the similar point, you are a large US exporter. What are your thoughts and concerns over potential as Trump raises tariffs potentially, potential retaliatory tariffs on US exports?

不，非常好。並且就相似點而言，你們是美國的大型出口商。隨著川普可能提高關稅，您對美國出口產品可能採取的報復性關稅有何想法和擔憂？

Yes. So I'm just building on, I guess, on the last answer, David. I do think that trade is an important topic back to that US manufacturing point I just made. I think strategic trade actions, along with addressing sort of overwhelming regulations, having pro-growth tax policy, workforce development, et cetera, were all critical to sort of driving and growing US manufacturing, which will certainly benefit Eastman in the long term and many other companies.

是的。所以我想我只是基於上一個答案，大衛。我確實認為貿易是一個重要的主題，回到我剛才提到的美國製造業問題。我認為，戰略貿易行動、解決繁瑣的監管規定、有利於成長的稅收政策、勞動力發展等，對於推動和發展美國製造業都至關重要，這無疑將使伊士曼和許多其他公司從長遠來看受益。

When I look back at the last time there was a sort of trade event in 2019, Eastman actually managed that from a direct impact really quite well. And the only impact we really had was there was a slowdown in the short term, therefore, economic activity and sort of we felt that.

當我回顧 2019 年上一次舉辦的貿易活動時，伊士曼實際上很好地應對了直接影響。而我們真正受到的唯一影響是短期內經濟活動的放緩，因此，我們是感受到了這一點的。

And when I reflect back on that time frame, we don't really face that much Chinese competition in North America. So it didn't have a lot of relevance to us to see the trade benefits. But obviously, a lot of US manufacturing did, and that helped stabilize the economy in some other areas that sort of helps as we sort of go through that trade friction.

當我回想起那段時間的時候，我發現我們在北美面臨的中國競爭並不那麼激烈。因此，了解貿易利益對我們來說沒有太大意義。但顯然，許多美國製造業確實做到了這一點，這有助於穩定其他一些領域的經濟，這在某種程度上有助於我們度過貿易摩擦。

Today is different though. So when you look at where we are today versus then the economy was actually relatively strong going into that event. The economy in global manufacturing now is incredibly weak across the globe.

但今天情況不同。因此，當你比較我們現在和當時的情況時，你會發現當時的經濟狀況實際上是相對強勁的。目前，全球製造業經濟在全球範圍內極度疲軟。

So I think the rate at which people can get aggressive, if they're focused on stabilizing and growing their economy will be limited, given those weaker positions that many countries have. And we're also in a pretty challenging economic time. So it's not clear to me how much more negative impact tariffs can have on top of the manufacturing recession we're already in.

因此我認為，考慮到許多國家目前所處的較弱地位，如果人們集中精力穩定和發展經濟，那麼他們採取激進行動的速度將會受到限制。而我們也正處於一個相當具有挑戰性的經濟時期。因此，我不清楚關稅在我​​們已陷入的製造業衰退之上還能產生多大的負面影響。

So I think that this, while it sounds really dramatic because there are so many different countries being discussed around what might have some tariff actions in it, and that is certainly a wider factor than 2019. I think that there's pros and cons to this and I think so far, we have seen some careful thought being deployed the administration about what's appropriate and not acting yet until they have a clear plan.

因此，我認為，雖然這聽起來確實很戲劇性，因為有許多不同的國家正在討論可能採取的關稅行動，但這肯定是一個比 2019 年更廣泛的因素。我認為這有利有弊，而且我認為到目前為止，我們已經看到政府對什麼是合適的進行了仔細的思考，並且在製定出明確的計劃之前不會採取行動。

So we'll see. There's no way for me to estimate the impacts at this stage. Given everything I just said, we're going to need to see specific actions to really have an informed point of view. But I will say that our forecast does not include any significant impact from the trade actions.

我們拭目以待。目前我還無法估計其影響。鑑於我剛才所說的一切，我們需要看到具體的行動才能真正獲得明智的觀點。但我要說的是，我們的預測不包括貿易行動的任何重大影響。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Hey, guys. Nice end of the year. I had a question on AFP. The adjusted EBIT came in a lot stronger in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter relative to your guidance. You talked about a couple of things in the transcript. But can you give us a little bit of color on why that segment did so well sequentially when normally, it takes a little bit of a dip?

嘿，大家好。美好的一年結束了。我對法新社有個問題。相對於您的預期，第四季的調整後息稅前利潤比第三季強勁得多。您在記錄中談到了一些事情。但是，您能否向我們稍微解釋一下，為什麼該部分錶現如此出色，而通常情況下，它會有所下滑？

Yes. So first, AFP had a great year as well as a great quarter. And frankly, the whole company had a great year. We're really excited about it, but on the earnings we delivered and the strength of cash flow that we generated. So, and AFP was a strong contributor to both the earnings and the cash flow. So it was great.

是的。首先，法新社今年以及本季的業績均十分出色。坦白說，整個公司度過了美好的一年。我們對此感到非常興奮，但我們所取得的收益和產生的現金流實力也讓我們感到非常興奮。因此，AFP 對收益和現金流都有著巨大的貢獻。所以這很棒。

When it came to sort of how it came in better than expected, it was on both fronts. So volume/mix came in a bit more, it came in a bit better than we expected. We expected a certain amount of destocking that might have gone beyond normal destocking. And we came in a little bit better than our original thought on that side.

至於為什麼結果比預期好，則是兩方面都好。因此音量/混合度有所提高，比我們預期的要好一些。我們預計一定程度的去庫存可能會超出正常的去庫存程度。我們在這方面的表現比我們最初預想的還要好一些。

And then raw material flow through was also better across a number of different products and that combination of those two things out, we even got some more fills in HTFs than we expected. And as part of that, and all those came together in a way that made the outcome better.

然後，原材料在多種不同產品中的流通也變得更好，將這兩件事結合起來，我們甚至獲得了比預期更多的 HTF 填充物。作為其中的一部分，所有這些都以一種讓結果變得更好的方式結合在一起。

And then I'd say that's sort of the story for the year for AM and for the company. We didn't have a market that gave us a lot of tailwinds outside of a lack of destocking. So the 23% earnings growth, AFP's contribution in it is about pulling lever we got, defending every bit of volume we had with customers, finding innovation everywhere we can, spending price incredibly well, which is a true testament to the sustainability of our value proposition through our innovation and good management on costs, et cetera. So this was a tough year that was delivered by actions, small little actions taken by everyone across the company to deliver it.

我想說這就是 AM 和公司今年的故事。除了缺乏去庫存之外，我們並沒有一個能帶給我們很多便利的市場。因此，23% 的獲利成長，AFP 的貢獻在於拉動我們的槓桿，捍衛我們與客戶的每一點業務量，在任何可能的地方尋找創新，以極好的價格支出，這真正證明了我們的價值主張透過我們的創新和良好的成本管理具有可持續性。所以這是艱難的一年，公司每個人都採取了行動，小小的行動，才度過了這一年。

Got it. And then just a quick one on Fibers. It looks like this will be the third year in a row of really good margins, pricing. The guidance looks pretty good in that 400-plus level. When you think about that business going forward, how sustainable do you think these pricing levels are? You saw some destocking here. I think there's some new capacity coming on as well. And just given that it's been such a big improvement from 2002, 2021 levels.

知道了。然後我們再簡單談談 Fibers。看起來這將是連續第三年實現良好的利潤率和定價。在 400 以上的水平上，指導看起來相當不錯。當您考慮未來業務時，您認為這些定價水平的可持續性如何？您在這裡看到了一些去庫存現象。我認為也有一些新的產能正在出現。考慮到它與 2002 年至 2021 年的水平相比已經有了很大的改善。

So certainly, Fibers has improved significantly back to where it was back in the sort of 2013, '14 time frame. So it's not like these are new levels. We were at them in our history.

因此可以肯定的是，Fibers 已經取得了顯著的進步，回到了 2013 年、2014 年左右的水平。所以這些並不是新的層次。我們在歷史上也曾經歷過這些。

In the short term, what I'd say is, based on everything customers are telling us, you've got a set of actions that are happening that are causing earnings to sort of normalize. Inventory management is certainly the key driver of the volume being adjusted. You have to remember that tow is 2% of the price of a cigarette. And the cigarette margins for our customers are greater than 60% in gross margin.

從短期來看，我想說的是，根據客戶告訴我們的一切，您正在採取一系列行動，這些行動正在使收益正常化。庫存管理無疑是交易量調整的關鍵驅動因素。你必須記住，菸草價是香菸價格的2%。我們客戶的捲菸毛利率超過60%。

So they really don't want to miss the sale. So security supply is phenomenally important to them when the markets are very tight. And so they built a lot of safety stock as a result of the '21, '22 time frame to make sure they were never shorting a customer.

所以他們真的不想錯過這次促銷。因此，當市場非常緊張時，安全供應對他們來說極為重要。因此，他們根據 21、22 年的時間範圍建立了大量安全庫存，以確保不會缺少客戶。

So I think that is what's going on right now. And we still have, as we look through 2026, greater than 80% of our customers under volume commitments. But there's a band of volume that they can hit inside these contracts and so that destocking is showing up with some customers. And we do expect the prices to be higher. But the bigger overall question is just what's the supply, demand dynamics in this context.

所以我認為這就是現在正在發生的事情。展望 2026 年，我們仍有超過 80% 的客戶達成了批量承諾。但是這些合約中的交易量存在一個區間，因此一些客戶出現了去庫存的情況。我們確實預計價格會更高。但更大的總體問題是這種背景下的供需動態是什麼樣的。

And first, demand is not changing. So when it comes to volume adjustments here, we're not seeing any sort of material change in the demand from the end market. We still expect it to be a modest 1% to 2% decline. Cigarettes are declining faster than that, but it's being offset by the high growth of the heat not burn products that still use tow and, in some cases, more tow than a cigarette. So market, end-market stability, I think, still is in place there.

首先，需求沒有改變。因此，當談到這裡的數量調整時，我們沒有看到終端市場需求發生任何實質變化。我們仍預計降幅將達到 1% 至 2%。香菸的減少速度比香菸快，但是它被加熱不燃燒產品的高速增長所抵消，加熱不燃燒產品仍然使用纖維，在某些情況下，纖維比香菸還多。所以我認為，市場和終端市場仍然存在穩定性。

There is some new capacity that's been added in China, which is roughly sort of 5% of market demand. So when you compare this back to 2015, the amount of change in demand in 2015 was significantly higher than this kind of modest market decline, because the Chinese have massively overbuilt inventory through their retail channel, and we're destocking it in a pretty aggressive way.

中國增加了一些新產能，約佔市場需求的5%。因此，如果與 2015 年進行比較，就會發現 2015 年的需求變化量明顯高於這種溫和的市場下滑，因為中國人透過其零售管道大量積壓了庫存，而我們正在以相當積極的方式去庫存。

And the capacity that was added in China also back in that time frame was significant. It makes this current capacity adds look very small in comparison to the backward integration that they did in that 2013, '14 time frame.

而在這段時間內，中國新增的產能也相當可觀。與他們在 2013 年和 2014 年期間進行的後向整合相比，目前的產能增加看起來非常小。

So these conditions now are a lot more modest. And when you put them together for now, we're going from a very tight market condition to probably utilizations in the low 90s. So while we certainly see some adjustments going on, we think of, this sort of current dynamic being a lot more stable than what occurred in the past.

因此現在這些條件要溫和得多。如果將它們放在一起，我們現在就從非常緊張的市場狀況轉變為利用率可能在 90% 以下。因此，雖然我們確實看到正在發生的一些調整，但我們認為，目前的這種動態比過去穩定得多。

And also historically, we've seen companies in this industry adjust high-cost capacity to align their low-cost capacity to serve the existing market as it adjusts the volume. So, and there's still a high-cost asset out there. So we'll see how this plays out, but we think this business is still going to normalize at a very attractive level for the company and for investors.

而且從歷史上看，我們已經看到該行業的公司調整高成本產能以配合其低成本產能來服務現有市場，同時調整產量。所以，那裡仍然存在高成本資產。因此，我們將觀察事態如何發展，但我們認為，這項業務仍將恢復正常，對公司和投資者都將非常有吸引力。

Of course, we're also not just sitting around waiting for the market. We're taking cost reduction actions across the company, and significant amount of that also applies into this area over the next couple of years and as a way to continue to manage our cost competitiveness.

當然，我們也不會只是坐等市場。我們正在全公司範圍內採取削減成本的措施，其中很大一部分也將在未來幾年內應用到這一領域，以繼續保持我們的成本競爭力。

And we haven't been sitting on our laurels on this one either, right? We've known that a diverse portfolio of ways to grow from the cellulosic chain as we talked about at the Deep Dive is incredibly important. So lot of growth opportunities in Naia, a lot of growth opportunities in Aventa and some other products to drive the stream and keep it growing. So we feel good about where we're at and all the innovation investments we've made to make this whole stream vital going forward.

而我們在這一點上也沒有滿足於現狀，對吧？我們知道，正如我們在 Deep Dive 中所討論的那樣，從纖維素鏈中發展多樣化的方式組合非常重要。因此，Naia 和 Aventa 都有很多成長機會，其他一些產品也有很多成長機會，可以推動這一進程並保持其成長。因此，我們對目前的狀況以及我們所做的所有創新投資感到非常滿意，這些投資將使整個流程在未來變得至關重要。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc 資本市場

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Reading about your rapid (inaudible) last night was quite a blessing. I wanted to ask you a question about Advanced Materials outlook this year. You're discussing that there's higher costs in the first half that could pinch margins and then you'll be raising your prices was a lag. So should we think of that dynamic as you first half earnings in Advanced Materials are somewhat under the run rate at which they'll be exiting the year?

謝謝。大家早安。昨晚讀到你關於快速（聽不清楚）的文章真是一件幸事。我想問您一個關於今年先進材料前景的問題。您正在討論上半年成本較高，這可能會擠壓利潤率，然後您會提高價格，但這將有一定的滯後性。那麼，我們是否應該考慮這種動態，因為先進材料部門上半年的收益略低於今年年底的運作率？

Yes. So look, there's a lot of dynamics going on, and it's a little more complicated this year than most. So in the first quarter, you've got roughly $25 million of costs that's moving out of corporate other and going into Advanced Materials in Q1.

是的。所以看，有很多動態正在發生，而且今年比大多數時候都要複雜一些。因此，在第一季度，大約有 2500 萬美元的成本從公司其他部門轉移至先進材料部門。

So on a year-over-year basis, obviously, that's a headwind. And it's impressive that we're delivering the earnings in our forecast for Q1 offsetting that with volume/mix growth as well as maintaining good price discipline and starting to (technical difficulty) some cost reduction actions for the year, which will start, which we started in December and November and into this year. So you're going to see some of that benefit, but that will definitely fill through the year.

因此，與去年同期相比，這顯然是一個阻力。令人印象深刻的是，我們實現了第一季預測的盈利，透過銷售/產品組合成長抵消了這一損失，同時保持了良好的價格紀律，並開始（技術難度）採取一些年度成本削減行動，這些行動將從12月和11月開始，一直持續到今年。因此，你會看到其中的一些好處，但這肯定會在全年實現。

So as you look through the year, you've got the cost benefits coming in through the year that are helpful. You've got the circular economy that's going to definitely be back half loaded and how it helps earnings in the back half relative to the first half of sales ramp up and utilization ramps up.

因此，當你回顧這一年時，你會發現全年的成本效益都是很有幫助的。循環經濟肯定會恢復半程運行，相對於上半年的銷售和利用率的上升，循環經濟有助於下半年的收益。

Offsetting that, you've got natural gas energy costs that they're a good portion of that $50 million I mentioned earlier, flows into the segment, and that flows in as a headwind through the year as those costs go into inventory and then flow out of inventory with increasing energy costs. So there are a lot of moving parts. I think the segment overall is well positioned to deliver very attractive results for the year, but it's, there's a lot of pluses and minuses as you look first half, back half.

與此相抵消的是，天然氣能源成本佔了我之前提到的 5,000 萬美元的很大一部分，這些成本流入了該部門，並且全年都成為逆風，因為這些成本進入庫存，然後隨著能源成本的增加而流出庫存。因此有很多活動部件。我認為該部門總體上處於有利地位，預計今年將取得非常有吸引力的業績，但從上半年和下半年來看，它有很多優點和缺點。

Thanks, Mark. And I also wanted to follow up on the filter tow. So in the past, you used to go through your annual contract negotiations right about now. So I wanted to ask you if you gained any visibility in your portfolio of contracts here beyond 2026 in terms of prices, margins, volumes, et cetera, kind of a--

謝謝，馬克。我還想跟進過濾器拖曳的情況。所以在過去，你過去常常在現在這個時刻進行年度合約談判。所以我想問一下，在價格、利潤率、數量等方面，您是否對 2026 年以後的合約組合有了一定的了解，有點像…

So we switched from an annual contracting process to a multiyear process with a number of customers, not all, but a number of them, especially the big ones, And to provide that stability, we've talked a lot about that to all of you over the past quarters. And that process is still in place where we have, as I said, about 80% of the volume contracted in 2026.

因此，我們與許多客戶（不是全部，但有很多，特別是大客戶）從年度簽約流程轉變為多年期流程，為了提供這種穩定性，我們在過去幾個季度與大家討論了很多這方面的問題。而且這項流程仍在進行中，正如我所說，我們在 2026 年簽訂了約 80% 的合約。

We probably have 60% contracted in 2027, probably it's actually higher than that, but it's closer to 70%. So we feel good about sort of this multiyear contracting that we have in place and how that adds a certain amount of volume stability and price stability to this business. But we also have to respect that our customers have to manage their inventory and make sure it's at the right levels to demand and working with them on how to make those adjustments this year.

我們可能已經簽訂了 2027 年的 60% 的合同，實際上可能更高，但更接近 70%。因此，我們對現有的這種多年期合約感到滿意，並認為這種合約為我們的業務增加了一定程度的產量穩定性和價格穩定性。但我們也必須尊重客戶管理庫存的要求，確保庫存處於正確的需求水平，並與他們合作，在今年做出調整。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Thank you and good morning everyone. It sounds like the methanolysis plant is running well, still, which is great. So maybe you could talk a little bit about the volume sales side of the equation. I think last year, the sales were a little bit below what you expected.

謝謝大家，早安。聽起來甲醇分解工廠運作良好，這很好。所以也許您可以稍微談談這個等式的銷售方面。我認為去年的銷售額略低於你的預期。

And I think some of it had to do with just sort of not being able to run the plant as well as you wanted to early in the year when the consumer products companies tend to introduce innovation and maybe miss some opportunities to be in those lines.

我認為部分原因是年初工廠無法按照預期順利運轉，而當時消費品公司往往會推出創新，因此可能會錯過一些進入該行業的機會。

So could you talk about how you're seeing the order book at this point in the year from that perspective as well as then some sort of high-profile backing off from some of the consumer brands on some of their recycled plastic targets. So just where are we in all that and your view on sales for this year?

那麼，您能否從這個角度談談您如何看待今年此時的訂單情況，以及一些消費品牌在部分再生塑膠目標上高調放棄的情況。那麼我們目前處於什麼階段？

That's a great question, Vince. And as you might guess, I spend a lot of my personal time with the team on this topic and all things circular. First of all, I think that we covered this topic fairly well at the Deep Dive and our perspective on sort of the market conditions both this year and beyond have not changed. So nothing has substantially changed.

這是一個很好的問題，文斯。正如你可能猜到的，我花了很多個人時間與團隊討論這個主題以及所有循環的事情。首先，我認為我們在「深入探討」中已經相當深入地討論了這個主題，我們對今年及以後市場狀況的看法沒有改變。因此實質上什麼都沒有改變。

But to re-hit the sort of key points that we discussed back then, I mean, first, we have to recognize that the macroeconomic conditions that we're in right now are not helpful, right? So when you've got an economy that is challenged and weak demand combined with inflation at the same time that our customers are trying to manage through and what they're buying as well as consumers' attitude about all these brands and the prices.

但要重新討論我們當時討論的關鍵點，我的意思是，首先，我們必須認識到我們目前所處的宏觀經濟條件沒有幫助，對嗎？因此，當經濟面臨挑戰、需求疲軟和通貨膨脹時，我們的客戶需要設法應對購買的產品以及消費者對所有這些品牌和價格的態度。

They're having to make choices. And so I think that has reduced the pace at which some of the brands are converting to ramp up their orders. But we see a solid funnel that has developed. And I believe we're sort of on track across all the different markets we're serving.

他們必須做出選擇。因此，我認為這減慢了一些品牌增加訂單的速度。但我們看到已經形成了一個堅實的漏斗。我相信，我們在所服務的所有不同市場都已步入正​​軌。

It's a bit different depending on which market you look at. When you look at the durable side, we already have over 100 customers who have committed to Renew and they're already paying premiums for those products. So there's not a lack of interest in the product, but there's a moderated pace. They want to really focus their efforts around product, new launches where they can sort of do something in the market and see a way to grow share and create their own growth in a weak underlying market just like we are doing, and where we can help them do that.

這取決於你關注的市場。從耐用品方面來看，我們已經有超過 100 名客戶承諾續約，而且他們已經為這些產品支付了溢價。因此，並不是對產品缺乏興趣，只是節奏有所放緩。他們希望真正集中精力在產品和新產品的發布上，這樣他們才能在市場上有所作為，找到增加份額的方法，在疲軟的潛在市場中創造自己的成長，就像我們所做的那樣，而我們可以幫助他們做到這一點。

But less interest in cannibalize something that's been on the shelf where they don't necessarily see an immediate improvement in their demand and that kind of upgrade, because I need the splash of the new products. So I think that's pretty aligned and pretty sensible, and we still see a lot of growth happening for us as a result of that.

但是他們對替換已經上架的產品不太感興趣，因為他們不一定會看到需求和升級的立即改善，因為我需要新產品的吸引力。所以我認為這是非常一致和非常合理的，而且我們仍然看到我們因此而實現了很大的成長。

On the consumer packaging side, you have to remember that the first plant we built here is not really aimed at recycled PET. We are converting a line over to be able to make recycled PET by the summer, where we will sell some PET in the back half of the year with a number of different customers and we believe that will be successful.

在消費品包裝方面，你必須記住，我們在這裡建造的第一家工廠並不是真正針對回收 PET 的。我們正在改造一條生產線，以便在夏季之前生產再生 PET，我們將在今年下半年向許多不同的客戶銷售一些 PET，我們相信這將是成功的。

I think that on the broader question that you asked, Vincent, are people sort of changing their sort of commitment to sort of recycled content? I don't think there's any signs from a long-term point of view where we see people backing off at the brand level and the need to change. I mean the reality is the brands are very focused on the brand equity and consumers' engagement around their products.

文森特，我認為，關於你提出的更廣泛的問題，人們是否正在改變對再生材料的承諾？我認為，從長遠來看，沒有任何跡象表明人們在品牌層面上退縮，也不需要做出改變。我的意思是，現實情況是品牌非常注重品牌資產和消費者對其產品的參與度。

And consumers really don't like plastic waste. It's a visible, tangible issue to them in their lives every day. I can't tell you how much it comes up in every cocktail session or dinner party I go to. And everyone's debating climate right now, including President Trump.

而消費者確實不喜歡塑膠垃圾。這是他們日常生活中看得見、摸得著的問題。我無法告訴你在我參加的每一次雞尾酒會或晚宴上它出現的頻率。現在每個人都在討論氣候氣候，包括川普總統。

But I'm not sure anyone's really debating plastic waste. I'm not seeing that. And it's an issue that people feel like they can do something about now that doesn't have a big sacrifice for them and what products they want to support compared to some of the climate implied choices they have to make. And it's bipartisan.

但我不確定是否真的有人在討論塑膠垃圾。我沒有看到。人們覺得他們現在可以對這個問題採取一些措施，不需要太大的犧牲，與他們必須做出的一些與氣候相關的選擇相比，他們更願意支持那些產品。而且它是兩黨共同的。

I mean, as I said, President Trump even signed a Save your Seas Act. So I think that there's economic reasons brands are moving a bit slower. But I'm not sure that, I don't think it's a lack of issue. The NGOs, the media are still very much going after plastic waste.

我的意思是，正如我所說，川普總統甚至簽署了《拯救海洋法案》。所以我認為品牌發展速度較慢是有經濟原因的。但我不確定，我不認為這是一個缺乏的問題。非政府組織和媒體仍在大力關注塑膠垃圾。

I'd say, in the, in many states, they're more committed post-election to driving this agenda with what choices they can make at the state level. And regulations are certainly coming out in Europe that are driving and forcing change as well as in multiple states in the US. So I don't think that context is changing. I think it's moderated to be reasonable in the economic environment we're in.

我想說，在許多州，選舉後他們會更致力於透過州級的選擇來推動這項議程。歐洲和美國多個州也紛紛推出法規，推動並迫使人們做出改變。所以我不認為這種情況會改變。我認為，在我們所處的經濟環境下，這個比例是合理的。

Okay. And if I could just follow up separately, the prepared remarks talked about there being some volume in the fourth quarter that was customers sort of preparing around tariffs and things like that. But it doesn't look like that's coming out of your first quarter or is having a negative impact on your guidance. So was that particularly material in any of the segments or sort of loading?

好的。如果我可以單獨跟進的話，準備好的評論談到了第四季度有一些客戶在圍繞關稅等事情做準備。但這看起來不像是在第一季產生的，也沒有對您的指導產生負面影響。那麼這在某個片段或某種載入中是否特別重要？

And I guess sort of correlated to that question is just if it's not coming back out in the first quarter, is that just a function of customers, they just don't have a lot of inventory?

我想與這個問題相關的是，如果它在第一季沒有恢復，那是否只是客戶的問題，他們沒有太多庫存？

Thanks for the question. And yes, I definitely agree. It was a modest impact on our volume/mix, beat in Q4 and we're entering the year with order books that are strong, that fully support the year-over-year growth that we see in Q1.

謝謝你的提問。是的，我絕對同意。這對我們的銷售/產品組合產生了適度影響，超出了第四季度的表現，並且我們以強勁的訂單量進入新年，完全支持了我們在第一季度看到的同比增長。

We're expecting volume/mix growth as well as price-cost in the specialties in Q1. And along with the absence of the start-up cost, that's going to be more than offsetting the Fibers inventory destock. So right now, we're good visibility.

我們預計第一季特種產品的產量/產品組合以及價格成本都會成長。再加上沒有啟動成本，這將遠遠超過抵銷纖維庫存去庫存所造成的損失。所以現在，我們的能見度很好。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

米奇 (Frank Mitsch)，鋤研究機構。

Hi guys. Good morning. It's Aziza on for Frank. My first question was on the $50 million of net cost reduction for 2025. Can you elaborate on the regions or segments where the majority of that is expected to occur?

嗨，大家好。早安.阿齊札代替弗蘭克上場。我的第一個問題是關於 2025 年 5000 萬美元的淨成本削減。您能否詳細說明預計主要發生在哪些地區或領域？

Thanks, Aziza. We are definitely focused on improving our cost structure, and this is to compete in the challenging environment. Our comprehensive plan to improve operating cost goes beyond our usual focus on setting inflation. I would highlight that success and innovation has driven complexity in our operations. And we're optimizing our products and operations to maximize gross margin realization, and that's key to success long term.

謝謝，阿齊札。我們肯定專注於改善我們的成本結構，這是為了在充滿挑戰的環境中競爭。我們改善營運成本的綜合計劃超出了我們通常關注的通膨範圍。我想強調的是，成功和創新增加了我們營運的複雜性。我們正在優化我們的產品和運營，以最大限度地提高毛利率，這是長期成功的關鍵。

This was going to be meaningful yield improvements, optimizing our contractors and the usage of those. And right now, also, there's significant MRO purchasing opportunities in this weak manufacturing environment.

這將帶來有意義的收益提升，優化我們的承包商及其使用。而且目前，在這種疲軟的製造業環境中，也存在著大量的 MRO 採購機會。

We also have some opportunities to optimize our global asset base, and we did some of that in 2024 with the shutdown of our interlayers resin operations line. And with rising natural gas prices, as you would expect, the drive on energy efficiency will be key.

我們還有一些機會來優化我們的全球資產基礎，我們在 2024 年關閉了夾層樹脂營運生產線，實現了部分優化。正如您所預料的，隨著天然氣價格的上漲，提高能源效率將成為關鍵。

As we think about operating segments, it will be across all four operating segments. To stay competitive in this global environment, that $50 million will be key. And we're not standing still. We're moving forward aggressively on this plan.

當我們考慮經營分部時，它將涵蓋所有四個經營分部。為了在全球環境中保持競爭力，這 5000 萬美元將是關鍵。我們不會停滯不前。我們正在積極推進這項計劃。

Thank you. And in your conversations with your auto customers, I was curious what are their expectations in terms of a recovery on auto builds in the US and Europe?

謝謝。在您與汽車客戶的交談中，我很好奇他們對美國和歐洲汽車生產復甦有何預期？

So on the auto sector, I think our expectations are pretty in line with what I've been hearing in the marketplace so far where automotive demand in the '25 versus '24 are probably going to be globally sort of slightly down. I think it's likely that Europe might be up a bit given how low it already is, both American being more flattish and China maybe being a bit lower given, especially given the strong sales they had in the Q4.

因此，在汽車領域，我認為我們的預期與我目前在市場上聽到的消息非常一致，即2025年與2024年相比，全球汽車需求可能會略有下降。我認為，考慮到歐洲的銷售量已經很低，歐洲的銷售量可能會略有上漲，而美國的銷售量則較為持平，中國的銷售量可能會略低，尤其是考慮到他們第四季的銷售強勁。

I would note that this business is been very successful in creating its own growth, right? So if you look at 2024, we delivered high single-digit growth in a market that was slightly down, largely from mix improvement as opposed to just absolute volume.

我想說這家企業在實現自身成長方面非常成功，對嗎？因此，如果展望 2024 年，我們將在略有下滑的市場中實現高個位數成長，這主要得益於產品組合的改善，而非絕對銷量。

We have quite a wide range of products here from our standard interlayers to our acoustic interlayers to our heads-up display or color and special gradient, solar rejection, all kinds of different features. The price points are quite vastly different as well as the margins across that product slate.

我們的產品範圍很廣，從標準夾層到聲學夾層，再到平視顯示器、顏色和特殊漸變、太陽輻射阻隔等各種不同的功能。該產品系列的價格點和利潤率差異很大。

So as we're dramatically growing in the upper end of the market in this functionality, there's a huge mix lift from these sales. And our addressable market is actually growing before you even layer on that mix growth. So there's a lot of things where we're seeing more territory growth per car, right? So they're moving from windshields to side lamination.

因此，隨著我們在這一功能領域的高端市場急劇增長，這些銷售也帶來了巨大的組合提升。而且，在進行這種混合成長之前，我們的潛在市場實際上已經在成長了。所以在很多方面我們都可以看到每輛車的覆蓋區域成長越來越大，對嗎？因此他們正在從擋風玻璃轉向側面層壓。

With EVs, even the sunroof has to be laminated because their sunroof is so big to help the drivers not feel so claustrophobic as they're sitting on 6 inches of battery. So there's a lot of territory we're getting. And it's not limited to EVs. It's including ICE cars that are moving to the side lamps and bigger sunroofs.

對於電動車來說，甚至天窗也必須是層壓的，因為它們的天窗非常大，可以幫助駕駛者在坐在 6 吋的電池上時不會感到幽閉恐懼。因此我們獲得了大片領土。並且它並不局限於電動車。其中包括配備側燈和更大天窗的 ICE 汽車。

We also are just getting more value per product, as I said, with these higher value products are being installed in these windows. So you got levered volume growth as well as mix upgrade associated with basically a flat market. So we continue finding ways to sort of create our own growth.

正如我所說，隨著這些更高價值的產品被安裝在這些窗戶上，我們也使每件產品的價值提高了。因此，你獲得了槓桿交易量成長以及與基本平穩的市場相關的組合升級。因此，我們將繼續尋找方法來促進我們自身的發展。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeff Zekauskas, J.P. Morgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. I think your forecast for operating cash flow in 2025 is $1.3 billion, which is flat with '24. Why isn't the operating cash flow growing?

非常感謝。我認為您對 2025 年營運現金流的預測是 13 億美元，與 24 年持平。為何經營現金流沒有成長？

Good morning, Jeff. Thanks for the question. Obviously, the largest driver for operating cash improvement this year is EBITDA growth. That's largely being offset in our base plan due to higher cash taxes. Right now, our baseline expectation is that our cash conversion cycle for working capital will stay flat with the last couple of years, which is around 85 days.

早安，傑夫。謝謝你的提問。顯然，今年經營現金改善的最大驅動力是EBITDA成長。由於現金稅增加，這在很大程度上在我們的基本計劃中被抵消了。目前，我們的基本預期是，營運資本的現金轉換週期將與過去幾年持平，約 85 天。

Obviously, at Eastman, the entire global team is focused on delivering cash and cash flow. And our challenge is to deliver that and then as the environment unfolds, deliver as much upside to that as possible. So we're focused on cash. There's no change in that commitment, but there will be higher cash taxes in 2025.

顯然，在伊士曼，整個全球團隊都專注於提供現金和現金流。我們的挑戰是實現這一點，然後隨著環境的發展，盡可能地實現更多的好處。所以我們關注的是現金。這項承諾沒有改變，但 2025 年現金稅將會更高。

Secondly, historically, Chemical Intermediates tended to move in operating income with Advanced Materials and AFP. In other words, you'd make a lot in Chemical Intermediates and then you'd make a lot in Advanced Materials and AFP. And then conversely, they would move together, not perfectly, but in general. Whereas in 2024, Chemical Intermediates went down and the other two businesses went up, and you see that in the fourth quarter.

其次，從歷史上看，化學中間體的營業收入往往與先進材料和 AFP 的營業收入走勢一致。換句話說，您會在化學中間體領域賺很多錢，然後您會在先進材料和 AFP 領域賺很多錢。然後相反，它們會一起移動，雖然不是完美地，但總體上是一致的。而在 2024 年，化學中間體業務下降，其他兩項業務上升，您會在第四季度看到這一點。

And I get it, there have been divestitures in Chemical Intermediates. In general, should those income levels be correlated? Should we expect the three divisions to move in the same direction? Or has something changed about Eastman that they don't move in the same direction?

我明白了，化學中間體業務已經遭到剝離。一般來說，這些收入水準應該相關嗎？我們是否應該期待三個部門朝著同一方向發展？還是伊士曼發生了某些變化，導致他們沒有朝著同一個方向發展？

Hey, Jeff, good to hear from you. And no, it's actually the opposite. So they tend to move in opposite directions. So if you look at, if you go back to '21, '22 when inflation was really tight and demand was really high, you saw a blowout in commodity margins in the whole industry, including us, where those earnings went up pretty dramatically.

嘿，傑夫，很高興收到你的來信。但事實並非如此。所以它們傾向於朝相反的方向移動。因此，如果你回顧 21、22 年，當時通貨膨脹非常緊張，需求非常高，你會看到整個產業（包括我們）的商品利潤率出現井噴，這些收益大幅上升。

We were certainly benefiting the specialties by strong volume/mix growth in that time frame. But a lot of that value was being offset by prices chasing the increasing pace of raw materials going up. And so when you have very strong demand, you certainly have the volume growth, but you don't, but it's mitigated by sort of chasing the prices. So there's actually a bit of a natural hedge between how the CI segment operates versus the specialties.

在這段時間內，我們確實因強勁的銷售/產品組合成長而受益。但隨著原物料價格不斷上漲，很大一部分價值被抵銷了。因此，當需求非常強勁時，銷售肯定會成長，但如果沒有，則會透過追逐價格來緩解。因此，CI 部門的運作方式與專業部門的運作方式之間實際上存在著某種自然的對沖。

And in addition to innovation being the center of our strategy and how we create a lot of growth and stability in our portfolio compared to the market, this portfolio diversity does the same thing, where a small part of Chemical Intermediates relative to a big part of specialty products actually sort balances out some of the volatility.

除了創新是我們策略的核心，以及我們如何在我們的產品組合中創造比市場更大的成長和穩定性之外，這種產品組合的多樣性也起到了同樣的作用，一小部分化學中間體相對於大部分特種產品實際上可以平衡一些波動性。

Great, thanks so much

非常好，非常感謝

Patrick Cunningham, Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Patrick Cunningham。

Hi, good morning. This is [Eric Zango] on for Patrick. In AM, the prepared remarks issued a higher RM cost base on 4Q LIFO inventory benefit. And CI, the 1Q '25 guides for higher raw material and energy costs. Which raw materials do you anticipate to be inflationary in 1Q?

嗨，早安。我是 [Eric Zango]，替 Patrick 播音。上午，準備好的評論根據第四季度後進先出法庫存收益發布了更高的 RM 成本基礎。而CI，25年第一季預計原物料和能源成本將上漲。您預計第一季哪些原材料會造成通貨膨脹？

Yes. I would say, as we think about transitioning between years, obviously, we've had the NGLs. So the propane has been higher. Also we have got the forecast for natural gas. Those are the key things. As it relates to Q4, it was primarily the benefit of paraxylene that declined as we went through the quarter and that decline was a little bit better than we expected.

是的。我想說，當我們思考年份之間的過渡時，顯然我們已經有了 NGL。因此丙烷含量更高。我們也獲得了天然氣的預測。這些才是關鍵。就第四季而言，主要是對二甲苯的收益在本季有所下降，而且這種下降比我們預期的要好一些。

Got it. Thank you. And then in AFP, the prepared comments, you mentioned the new business wins and cost reductions mitigated a project $3 million headwind. Could you provide some more insight on the strategy and execution.

知道了。謝謝。然後在法新社的準備好的評論中，您提到新業務的成功和成本的降低緩解了該項目 300 萬美元的逆風。您能否就該策略和執行提供更多見解。

Sure. So on the growth side, the great thing about the AFP businesses, it serves a lot of very stable markets that went back to sort of having a modest growth last year versus '23, and expected that sort of stable, modest growth to continue this year. And so that gives a nice core foundation. When you're, you've got ag, you've got pharma applications, water treatment, aviation, there's a certain amount of stability that you get, that you've seen in that.

當然。因此，從成長方面來看，AFP 業務的優點在於，它服務於許多非常穩定的市場，這些市場去年與 23 年相比恢復了適度成長，並且預計今年這種穩定、適度的成長將持續下去。這奠定了良好的核心基礎。當你擁有農業、製藥應用、水處理和航空時，你會獲得一定程度的穩定性，這是你已經看到的。

And the volume growth is going to moderate relative to last year because we don't have destocking, but those drivers will continue. And then on top of that, they have innovation driving their own growth, too. So we've got some great high-purity solvents that are experiencing growth in semiconductors, for example, progress we're making and winning all new set of applications in LNG that helps provide some stability for heat transfer fluids, which is more of a '26 benefit than '25, but we continue to make some sort of wins on that front.

由於我們沒有去庫存，因此銷售成長相對於去年將會放緩，但這些驅動因素仍將繼續存在。除此之外，他們也透過創新推動自身的成長。因此，我們獲得了一些優質的高純度溶劑，它們在半導體領域的應用正在不斷增長，例如，我們在液化天然氣領域取得的進展和贏得所有新應用，有助於為傳熱流體提供一定的穩定性，這更多的是'26 年而不是'25 年的好處，但我們在這方面繼續取得某種勝利。

We've got a series of cellulosic products that we're driving forward that we talked to you about at the Deep Dive. So there's innovation there. It's not quite as big as Advanced Materials, but it has the benefit of not facing as much discretionary market exposure than Advanced Materials has.

我們正在推進一系列纖維素產品，我們在 Deep Dive 上與您討論過這些產品。因此，其中存在創新。它的規模不如先進材料公司那麼大，但它的優勢在於，它不像先進材料公司面臨那麼多的自主市場風險。

We've also just done a phenomenal managing commercial excellence and price and the value of the products and benefiting from some spread expansion last year, and I'd say more stability this year as we go into this year and, of course, they get their benefit of the cost reduction program that we're rolling across the segment to also help it up. So that's why you get that continued earnings improvement this year on top of what was an extraordinary performance last year.

我們在商業卓越性、價格和產品價值的管理方面也做得非常出色，並且受益於去年的一些利差擴大，我想說，今年我們將更加穩定，當然，他們也從我們在整個部門推行的成本削減計劃中受益，這也有助於提高我們的業績。這就是為什麼在去年出色表現的基礎上，今年的獲利還能持續改善。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

美國銀行的薩爾瓦多‧蒂亞諾 (Salvator Tiano)。

Good morning. So firstly, I want to go back a little bit to Kingsport methanolysis. And you did mention that most of the improvement in AM earnings will come in the second half. But I'm wondering how much of that is something that's already happening, and you have, or you have already line of sight, meaning that you have already found the customers that they just may not, but they may need the volume in the second half or how much of your targeted operating rates have you reached right now as of January? So essentially, what's already in the books of that $75 million?

早安.首先，我想簡單回顧一下金斯波特甲醇分解。您確實提到過，AM 收益的大部分改善將出現在下半年。但我想知道其中有多少是已經發生的事情，或者您已經有了視線，這意味著您已經找到了他們可能還沒有找到但可能需要下半年產量的客戶，或者截至 1 月份，您目前已達到多少目標運營率？那麼從本質上講，這 7,500 萬美元的帳面價值是多少？

Yes. So there's a lot of detail that we provide in the deep dive that you can reference in answering this question, and it's still pretty much the same view today as it was back then. But there is quite a bit, as you'll see in those charts that existing business, that 100-plus customers I mentioned that are continuing to grow and launch products this year. And so that's a good portion of the demand.

是的。因此，我們在深入研究中提供了大量的細節，您可以在回答這個問題時參考它們，而且今天的觀點與當時的觀點基本相同。但是，正如您在這些圖表中看到的，現有業務中，我提到的 100 多家客戶今年仍在繼續發展並推出產品。這佔了需求的很大一部分。

And then there is a lot of business we're still closing. It's what we do every year. It's not just unique to the circular platform of closing businesses through the year and getting orders. The good news about this business is the orders show up pretty fast in a lot of these applications where the products are already well established and how to use it. And so, call it, half, half in what is building on existing business versus business that we're closing.

而且我們還有許多業務尚未完成。這是我們每年都會做的事情。它不只是獨有的全年結業、接訂單的循環平台。這項業務的好消息是，訂單在許多應用程式中出現得非常快，這些應用程式的產品已經很成熟並且知道如何使用它。因此，我們可以說，一半是在現有業務的基礎上開展的，另一半是在關閉的業務。

Okay, thank you. And just wanted to go a little bit to capital allocation. Out of the $700 million to $800 million in CapEx, how much is the Longview expansion? And with regard to the buybacks that you mentioned, despite making more money, you are spending, you are allocating less. So is this a number that has upside? Are you thinking about leaving some capital free for bolt-on M&A? Or is there no way that you would go above $200 million in 2025 buybacks ?

好的，謝謝。我只是想稍微談談資本配置。在 7 億到 8 億美元的資本支出中，Longview 擴建佔了多少？至於您提到的回購，儘管賺了更多的錢，但您卻在支出，在分配更少。那麼這個數字還有上升空間嗎？您是否考慮留下一些資金用於附加併購？或者說你不可能在 2025 年回購金額超過 2 億美元？

What I would say on CapEx first is, just as a reminder, our base CapEx is around that $350 million mark. So as you think about ultimately keeping our plants running and running reliably, as we think about growth programs, yes, you would expect our commitments in Texas to ramp up through the year, but there's also other growth projects like our Tritan expansions, et cetera, that we will be, including as well.

首先我想提醒一下，關於資本支出，我們的基本資本支出約為 3.5 億美元。因此，當您考慮最終讓我們的工廠保持可靠運行時，當我們考慮增長計劃時，是的，您會期望我們在德克薩斯州的承諾在今年增加，但還有其他增長項目，例如我們的 Tritan 擴建等，我們也將包括在內。

I would expect the Longview, Texas site to be the single largest growth project for the year in the $700 million to $800 million range. And that range is net of our expected DOE grant receipts.

我預計德州朗維尤的項目將成為今年最大的單一成長項目，投資額在 7 億至 8 億美元之間。這個範圍是扣除我們預期的 DOE 補助收入後的淨額。

On the capital allocation front, as I think about, again, we've increased our dividend for the 15th year. On top of that, we went to the high end of share repurchases in 2024. And what I would say is we're not going to let cash sit idle. So we're going to use cash and our net debt to EBITDA is in a great situation. So we have financial flexibility, and we'll leverage that to maximize value for shareholders.

在資本配置方面，我想，我們已經連續第 15 年增加了股利。除此之外，我們在 2024 年的股票回購量也達到了最高水準。我想說的是，我們不會讓現金閒置。因此我們將使用現金，而且我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率處於良好狀態。因此，我們擁有財務靈活性，我們將利用這一點來最大化股東價值。

Okay. Perfect. So, just mentioned the DOE grant that's essentially included in CapEx. How much is that? Thank you very much.

好的。完美的。因此，剛才提到了能源部撥款，這基本上包含在資本支出中。那多少錢？非常感謝。

We're not going to be specific to the amount, but I will just highlight that we received $10 million in 2024.

我們不會具體說明金額，但我只想強調一下，我們在 2024 年收到了 1000 萬美元。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Leithead, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的麥可‧萊特黑德 (Michael Leithead)。

Great. Thank you. Good morning guys. First, in Fibers, it seems like you had a fairly profitable product or some EBIT that you're now not selling in '25. So can you just provide a bit more context there?

偉大的。謝謝。大家早安。首先，在 Fibers 方面，看起來你們擁有一款利潤相當高的產品，或者說是一些息稅前利潤，但在 25 年你們卻沒有出售。那麼您能否提供更多背景資訊呢？

So we, in this particular case, we can't talk about this customers' products and the details of what it is. But it was a good high-value product. They made a design change in their offering to the marketplace and the need for this was discontinued. We just provided that detail so you understand, there are multiple drivers of how we're normalizing.

因此，在這種特殊情況下，我們無法談論該客戶的產品及其細節。但它是一款優質的高價值產品。他們對其向市場提供的產品設計進行了更改，從此不再需要這種產品了。我們只是提供了細節以便您理解，我們如何實現規範化有多種驅動因素​​。

Part of it is destocking. Part of it is product. Part of it's energy. Being a headwind in this segment as CPTs catch up. And part of it is currency, right? So there's multiple levels of sort of what's in that guide from what was a very strong performance in 2024 to a very, very good performance in '25.

其中一部分是去庫存。其中一部分是產品。其中一部分是能量。隨著 CPT 的追趕，它成為這一領域的逆風。其中一部分是貨幣，對嗎？因此，指南中的內容有多個層次，從 2024 年非常強勁的表現到 2025 年非常非常好的表現。

Great. That's helpful. And then, Mark, post election, it seems like there's been a bit of a pause to review on a lot of the green spending. I know you mentioned earlier your comfort in receiving your DOE funding. But just, has the broader regulatory and funding uncertainty created a pause or delay just in your broader customer conversations about taking recycled product or committing to such a contract?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後，馬克，選舉後，似乎有一些暫停來審查大量的綠色支出。我知道您之前提到您對獲得 DOE 資助感到滿意。但是，更廣泛的監管和資金不確定性是否造成了您與更廣泛的客戶關於採用再生產品或簽訂此類合約的對話的暫停或延遲？

We've not seen any impact at this stage. As I said, we're certainly seeing an impact of a weak economic environment and inflation causing companies to be careful where they spend money on and as everyone is trying to drive cost reduction programs to improve earnings in a weak environment, right?

目前我們還沒有看到任何影響。正如我所說的，我們確實看到了疲軟的經濟環境和通貨膨脹的影響，這導致公司在花錢時要謹慎，而且每個人都在試圖推動成本削減計劃，以在疲軟的環境下提高盈利，對嗎？

So that's just sort of natural economic behavior. But I don't see any sort of change with customers where they're like. We don't think plastic waste is something I need to manage in my consumer packaging. That's just no longer matters.

這只是一種自然的經濟行為。但我沒有看到顧客有任何變化。我們認為，在消費品包裝中，不需要管理塑膠廢棄物。這已經不再重要了。

Climate is a very different topic than everyone doesn't like waste in their environment and the impact it's having. So I don't think that we've seen any sort of significant shift on that front. I mean I do think, there's a lot of confusion right now with all the different activity going on in the administration and everyone's trying to interpret what it means. But we feel good about the long-term value of circular platform.

氣候是一個非常不同的主題，與每個人都不喜歡環境中的浪費及其產生的影響不同。因此我認為我們在這方面沒有看到任何重大轉變。我的意思是，我確實認為，目前政府內部發生了各種各樣的活動，每個人都在試圖解讀其中的含義，這導致了許多混亂。但我們對循環平台的長期價值感到滿意。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Arun Vishwanathan, RBC.

阿倫·維斯瓦納坦（Arun Vishwanathan），RBC。

Arun, we can't hear you.

阿倫，我們聽不到你的聲音。

(multiple speakers) Oh, my apologies, please go ahead.

（多位發言者）哦，抱歉，請繼續。

Great. Thanks. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on the results here. So I guess maybe just two questions. So first off, what are you hearing from your customers as far as the circular efforts go? I know that you've had maybe some, still some higher cost there, maybe some diminished interest?

偉大的。謝謝。感謝您回答我的問題。祝賀所取得的成果。因此我想也許只有兩個問題。那麼首先，就循環努力而言，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼消息？我知道您可能已經有一些，仍然有一些更高的成本，也許有些興趣減少了？

And then secondly, Q1, it doesn't seem like you're being impacted as much by the slowdown or winter weather or anything like that. But your outlook appears a little bit stronger than some of your peers. So maybe you can just comment on those two items. Thanks.

其次，第一季度，看起來你們並沒有受到經濟放緩、冬季天氣或類似因素的太大影響。但你的前景似乎比你的一些同齡人要強勁一些。所以也許您可以對這兩項內容發表評論。謝謝。

Sure. So I think I've already addressed the first question in a couple of other answers. We're seeing economic moderation or pace volume build but not a lack of engagement.

當然。所以我認為我已經在其他幾個答案中回答了第一個問題。我們看到經濟放緩或步伐加快，但並未缺乏參與。

When it comes to the second question around sort of Chemical Intermediates, I think is where you were going with that question. We certainly see the challenges in the competitive environment right now in Chemical Intermediates in both acetyls and olefin products and feel some of that competitive pressure.

當談到有關化學中間體的第二個問題時，我想這就是您要問的。我們確實看到了乙醯基和烯烴產品化學中間體當前競爭環境的挑戰，也感受到了一些競爭壓力。

Our outlook for the year on that front is relative stability, because while we recognize that's going to impact our business, we have made a lot of great reliability investments in our facilities last year. So we're on track to have a lot more volume to sell this year.

我們對今年這方面的展望是相對穩定的，因為雖然我們認識到這將影響我們的業務，但去年我們在我們的設施上進行了大量可靠性投資。因此，我們今年的銷售量有望大幅增加。

A lot of that will be export sales. So it's moderate in its value because we're still waiting for local markets to grow, but certainly helping offset the spread. And again, they get a slice of the cost benefits in the cost reduction plan that we have in place, and they don't have much currency exposure at all in CI.

其中很大一部分將是出口銷售。因此，它的價值適中，因為我們仍在等待當地市場成長，但肯定有助於抵消利差。而且，他們從我們實施的成本削減計劃中獲得了一部分成本效益，而且他們在 CI 中幾乎沒有貨幣風險。

That's more in AM and Fibers is where all the currency exposure sits. So that's not a headwind here or in AFP for that matter. So that helps it have some stability in how it moves forward is having that additional volume and the cost actions. (multiple speakers).

所有貨幣風險都存在於 AM 和 Fibers 中。所以這對我們這裡或法新社來說都不是一個阻力。因此，這有助於它在未來的發展中保持一定的穩定性，並擁有額外的數量和成本行動。（多位發言者）。

I just wanted to clarify, apologies if I missed this before. But was there a pull forward in Q4? And does that kind of impact your Q1 outlook as well as it relates to whether prebuying ahead of tariffs or any other dynamics? Thanks.

我只是想澄清一下，如果我之前沒有註意到這一點，請原諒。但第四季有出現提前跡象嗎？這是否會對您的第一季前景產生影響？謝謝。

Yes, we addressed that question earlier and it was modest part of the volume beat.

是的，我們之前已經回答過這個問題，這只是成交量的一部分。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I think the next question is our last, please?

我想下一個問題是我們的最後一個問題，可以嗎？

John Roberts, Mizuho.

瑞穗的約翰羅伯茲。

Yeah. Thank you. Is the solar heat transfer fluid, the thermal fluid opportunity now dead? We've had several delays on projects. And I would guess the current administration is not helpful to that business.

是的。謝謝。太陽能傳熱流體和熱流體的機會現在是否已經消失？我們的專案已經延期好幾次了。我猜想現任政府對該項業務不會有任何幫助。

Hey, John. How you doing? I didn't see the solar question coming. So we don't do that much in the solar business anymore to your point, John. We've actually made a phenomenally good progress on diversifying our application base in heat transfer fluids. So it used to be very tied to PET and solar as two businesses, which in today's current economic environment are pretty challenged, especially PET.

嘿，約翰。你好嗎？我沒有想到會有太陽能問題。所以，正如你所說，我們不再在太陽能業務上做那麼多了，約翰。事實上，我們在傳熱流體應用基礎多樣化方面已經取得了驚人的進展。因此，它過去與 PET 和太陽能這兩項業務緊密相關，但在當今的經濟環境下，這兩項業務面臨相當大的挑戰，尤其是 PET。

But we've really diversified pretty significantly into energy, especially LNG. So these LNG facilities actually require quite a bit of heat transfer fluid. And in many cases, it's a very high-value version of heat transfer fluid for those facilities and that's been a great diversification.

但我們確實已實現了能源領域的多元化，尤其是液化天然氣領域。因此這些液化天然氣設施實際上需要相當多的傳熱流體。在許多情況下，它是這些設施中非常高價值的傳熱流體，並且具有很大的多樣化。

And as we, because of capital delays, we're not expecting much of a tailwind this year relative to last year in fills because projects are just getting delayed. But certainly in '26 and beyond, there's a number of these big sort of LNG fills that we've won that will help build earnings growth as we go forward.

而且，由於資金延遲，我們預計今年的填充情況不會比去年有太大的順風，因為這個計畫只是被推遲了。但可以肯定的是，在26年及以後，我們贏得了許多此類大型液化天然氣填充，這將有助於我們未來的獲利成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks again, everyone, for joining us. We appreciate your interest in Eastman. And I hope everybody has a great weekend. Thanks, again.

再次感謝大家的加入我們。感謝您對 Eastman 的關注。我希望大家度過一個愉快的週末。再次感謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。