伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the third quarter 2025 eastman conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcasted live on the Eastman website at www.eastman.com. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle, Eastman Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼公司 2025 年第三季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄影。本次電話會議正在伊士曼公司網站www.eastman.com上進行現場直播。現在我將把電話會議交給伊士曼投資者關係部的格雷格·里德爾先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Becky. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe and Emily Alexander from the Investor Relations team. Yesterday after market closed, we posted our third quarter 2025 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, our slides and the related prepared remarks and this is in the Investors section of our website, eastman.com.

謝謝你，貝基。各位早安，感謝各位的收看。今天與我一起通話的有：董事會主席兼執行長馬克·科斯塔；執行副總裁兼財務長威利·麥克萊恩；以及投資者關係團隊的傑克·拉羅和艾米麗·亞歷山大。昨天收盤後，我們發布了 2025 年第三季財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件、幻燈片和相關準備好的發言稿，這些內容都可以在我們網站 eastman.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

Before we begin, I'll cover two items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our third quarter 2025 financial results news release during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the SEC, including the Form 10-K filed for full year 2024 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for third quarter 2025.

在開始之前，我先介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演講中，您將聽到一些關於我們計劃和預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能與此有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素將在本次電話會議期間發布的 2025 年第三季度財務業績新聞稿、前面的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括已提交的 2024 年全年 10-K 表格和即將提交的 2025 年第三季度 10-Q 表格。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain non-core items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the third quarter 2025 financial results news release.

其次，本簡報中提到的收益不包括某些非核心項目。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調節表以及其他相關揭露資訊（包括排除和調整項目的說明）可在 2025 年第三季財務業績新聞稿中找到。

As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we'll go straight into Q&A. Becky, please let's start with our first question.

由於我們昨晚已將幻燈片和準備好的演講稿發佈在我們的網站上，我們將直接進入問答環節。貝基，我們先從第一個問題開始。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Mark, could you help us with the bridge to 2026? And in particular, is it just as simple as taking your full year EBIT from this year, adding the $100 million of cost savings and the $50 million to $75 million of asset utilization? Reversal, but then I'm wondering you're talking about recycling being a good news story next year, but you kind of just mentioned that there will be a revenue lift. So not clear whether that revenue lift is being offset by weakness somewhere else in the portfolio or if there are other puts and takes that we need to put in that bridge to get to sort of what you're expecting at this point for 2026?

馬克，你能幫我們搭建通往 2026 年的橋樑嗎？具體來說，是否只要把今年的全年息稅前利潤加上 1 億美元的成本節約和 5,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元的資產利用率提高，就能得出結果呢？情況發生了逆轉，但我想問的是，你指的是明年回收會是一個好消息，但你剛才又提到收入會有所增長。所以目前還不清楚收入成長是否被投資組合其他部分的疲軟所抵消，或者我們是否需要進行其他交易來彌補損失，才能達到您目前對 2026 年的預期目標？

Vincent, thank you for the question. Obviously, it's an extremely important question for us as we think about working through the back half of this year and building earnings growth for next year. And I think you named a lot of the components. The way I'd start this conversation first is what you said, you got to look at a full year number. When you look at the back half of this year, you can't annualize the back half for three reasons.

文森特，謝謝你的提問。顯然，這對我們來說是一個極其重要的問題，因為我們需要考慮如何度過今年下半年以及如何實現明年的獲利成長。我認為你已經列舉了很多組成部分。我首先要說的就是你剛才說的，我們需要看一整年的數據。當你審視今年下半年的情況時，由於以下三個原因，你不能將下半年的情況按年計算。

One is there's always normal seasonality in the back half of the year, especially in AFP through the back half and Advanced Materials having a normal material drop from Q3 to Q4. Second reason, obviously, as we've discussed in the prepared remarks, the trade disputes have exaggerated this dynamic with all the pull forward of material that happened in the first half of the year to get ahead of tariff risk. And now with consumer demand being sort of weaker than was expected in the first half -- for the back half, it's taking them a lot longer to unwind that inventory. So that's exaggerating the sequential decline. And the third, of course, is we started the year, I believe, we'd have volume and growth and stability in the first quarter, which we did have and then a lot changed, obviously, through the second quarter.

一是每年下半年總會有正常的季節性波動，尤其是 AFP 在下半年，而先進材料從第三季到第四季會出現正常的下降。第二個原因顯然是，正如我們在準備好的發言稿中所討論的那樣，貿易爭端加劇了這種動態，導致上半年所有材料提前交付，以應對關稅風險。而現在，由於上半年消費者需求比預期疲軟，下半年他們需要更長的時間來消化庫存。所以這誇大了連續下降的趨勢。當然，第三點是，我相信，年初的時候，我們第一季銷售、成長和穩定性都達到了預期，而我們也確實做到了，但顯然，第二季情況發生了很大變化。

So we had volume that was sort of built for that scenario that was no longer needed as demand was softening more than expected than we had that $100 million asset utilization headwind in the back half of the year relative to the first half. So those three things really distort the back half of this year. So you're right, the best way to think about and build a base case scenario for next year is you have to look at the full year volume numbers, especially in Advanced Materials and AFP, which should be AM being down around 4% and AFP being down around 2% on a full year basis. Can you sort of start there. When we didn't look underneath that, we think about the stable markets, which is about a third in AM and two-thirds in AFP are going to have sort of low single-digit growth that is just normal from these kind of stable markets.

因此，我們原本為應對這種情況而建立的產能，由於需求疲軟的程度超過了預期，而且下半年相對於上半年資產利用率下降了 1 億美元，所以這些產能不再需要了。所以這三件事嚴重影響了今年下半年的情況。所以你說得對，要考慮和建立明年的基本情況，最好的方法是查看全年的銷量數據，尤其是在先進材料和AFP領域，AM的銷量應該會下降約4%，AFP的銷量應該會下降約2%。你可以從這裡開始。當我們沒有深入探討背後的原因時，我們就會想到那些穩定的市場，AM 大約有三分之一的市場和 AFP 大約有三分之二的市場將會出現個位數的低成長，這對於這些穩定的市場來說很正常。

And it's coming from a bit of a soft year. So I think it's even more credible that there'll be some recovery and growth in those products. The discretionary markets are where the sensitivity and the impact of the trade wars really felt. For now, we're just going to assume, let's just say the baseline volume is stable. Now with lower interest rates and tax legislation, et cetera, you could believe there will be upside to that and that's for every investor to make their decision.

而且今年的業績還比較疲軟。所以我認為這些產品出現復甦和成長的可能性更大。貿易戰的敏感度和影響力在非必需消費品市場中體現得最為明顯。目前，我們先假設，就說基線銷售是穩定的。現在利率降低，稅收政策也有所調整等等，你可能會認為這將帶來上漲空間，而這最終取決於每位投資者自己的決定。

On CI, I would say, we'll have more volume. That's really due to less shutdown time that we expect next year versus this year. So we'll have more volume to sell. And then Fibers, we intend to try and keep that volume stable to this year. So you've got a baseline that's stable, some sort of modest growth throughout the portfolio.

關於CI，我認為我們會有更大的交易量。這主要是因為我們預計明年停工時間會比今年少。這樣我們就能有更多的銷售量了。至於纖維業務，我們打算今年盡量維持產量穩定。所以，你有一個穩定的基準線，整個投資組合都有一定程度的適度成長。

And then it gets to, okay, that's the underlying assumptions. What can we do with that scenario and how do we create earnings growth above that? It starts with the cost reduction, right? So we've done $75 million of cost reduction this year. A lot of that's in the back half.

然後就到了，好吧，這就是基本假設。在這種情況下我們能做些什麼？我們如何才能實現高於預期的獲利成長？一切都從降低成本開始，對吧？今年我們已經削減了7500萬美元的成本。很多內容都在後半部分。

So that annualizes and helps with the $100 million cost reduction target we told you we have for next year on top of this year. So we're focused on that. A lot of action going on with that. With the volume scenario I gave you the utilization tailwind for next year relative to this year is somewhere in the $50 million to $75 million range, depending on what happens in the volumes, right? So volumes are flat for more towards the $50 million.

這樣一來，每年就能節省 1 億美元，這有助於實現我們之前告訴你們的明年加上今年的成本削減目標。所以我們專注於此。那方面有很多進展。根據我給出的銷量情景，明年相對於今年的利用率順風幅度將在 5000 萬美元到 7500 萬美元之間，具體取決於銷量情況，對嗎？因此，成交量基本持平，接近 5000 萬美元。

Volumes have the modest growth that we're talking about going more towards the $75 million. And then you've got innovation. That is the center of our strategy, and it couldn't be more valuable as it is in this market environment. We actually expect a meaningful increase in revenue in the circular polyester methanolysis plant as we've discussed in the prepared remarks, and we'll have a tailwind with better utilization and costs. So you'll have a meaningful impact on EBITDA from this year.

銷量實現了我們所說的溫和成長，預計將接近 7500 萬美元。然後就是創新。這是我們策略的核心，在當前的市場環境下，它的價值更是無與倫比。正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所討論的那樣，我們預計循環聚酯甲醇解裝置的收入將顯著增長，而且利用率和成本的提高也將帶來利好。因此，從今年開始，您將對 EBITDA 產生重大影響。

There will be the normal innovation that we always have in HUD growing and in cars as well as EVs in the interlayers business, our Aventa is gaining traction, Naia textiles recovering, EastaPure semiconductor solvents, a lot of places where there's innovation growing and then we're going to be focusing on how we can win share in a number of markets. There's some where we're already regaining some share that we lost in architectural and coalescents in architectural markets and interlayers.

在HUD、汽車和電動車的中間層業務方面，我們一如既往地會有創新發展；我們的Aventa正在獲得市場認可；Naia紡織品正在復蘇；EastaPure半導體溶劑等等，很多領域都在創新發展；然後我們將專注於如何在多個市場贏得份額。在某些領域，我們已經重新奪回了我們在建築和建築市場以及中間層失去的一些份額。

And then there's also some places in tariffs helping us like in specialty polyesters and rPETin the US, the tariff is significant for our competitors to compete in the US. And we're following our customers around the world as they're moving out of China. Underneath all of this is our commercial excellence to defend and keep price steady and stable.

此外，關稅在某些方面也對我們有所幫助，例如美國的特種聚酯和rPET，關稅對於我們的競爭對手在美國的競爭至關重要。我們正在跟隨世界各地的客戶，見證他們離開中國。這一切的背後是我們卓越的商業能力，以捍衛並維持價格的穩定。

Only slight declines probably expected, and that preserves a lot of cash flow. So we continue to be focused on cash. We continue to be focused on innovation. We're adding on aggressive cost management at the same time. All of that comes together for a meaningful earnings increase under this scenario.

預計只會略有下滑，這樣可以保留大量的現金流。因此，我們將繼續專注於現金流。我們將繼續專注於創新。同時，我們也採取了積極的成本控制措施。在這種情況下，所有這些因素加在一起，將帶來顯著的收益成長。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Mark, a lot of good things happening at Kingsport. Can you discuss two things, the conversion to the rPET capacity, how much is being converted? What does it mean for next year, be the bottlenecking, how much will cost will be on stream? And your plans for this -- the second plant. You mentioned three locations. Where do we stand is Longview now off the table?

馬克，金斯波特那邊發生了很多好事。請您討論兩個問題：rPET產能的轉換狀況，以及轉換量是多少？這對明年意味著什麼？瓶頸會是什麼？成本會是多少？哪些環節會受到影響？你對第二家工廠的計畫是什麼？你提到了三個地點。現在朗維尤計畫是否已被排除在外？

Those are all great questions. I'm a little limited on how I can answer some of them. But to start with Kingsport. First plant continues to run well. We're still on track to hit our production target. We've had great confidence dealt about our ability to bottleneck the plant as well as our yields are turning out to be better than expected. We've hit 90% yields, which is extraordinary when you're taking garbage and turning it into first quality, perfectly clear high-quality polymer.

這些都是很好的問題。有些問題我能回答的方式比較有限。但先從金斯波特開始。第一台設備運作狀況良好。我們仍有望實現生產目標。我們對控制工廠產能的能力非常有信心，我們的產量也比預期的要好。我們已經達到了 90% 的產率，這非常了不起，因為我們把垃圾變成了優質、完全透明的高品質聚合物。

So we're really, really excited about what we're learning, what we're doing on that project and we believe that 30% expansion of the capacity is very feasible. The capital to do that, which would be done over a series of our normal shutdowns is relatively modest capital. So we're not disclosing that number at this stage, but it's not significant.

所以，我們對在這個計畫上所學到的知識和所做的工作感到非常興奮，我們相信產能擴大 30% 是非常可行的。完成這項工作所需的資金相對較少，而且這項工作將在我們正常的一系列停工期間完成。所以現階段我們不會透露這個數字，但它並不重要。

So excited about stretching that plant, getting a lot more value out of it and that giving us more continuous earnings growth while we work on the second project. When it comes to revenue for the project, obviously, in this market environment, especially in consumer durables, where a lot of the renewed content goes in our specialty Tritan products. It hasn't been growing as fast as we wanted in the end market, which means product launches aren't that fast. But as we look towards next year, two things. We continue to get more wins on the specialty side and continue to build confidence there where customers are committing and buying and paying premiums.

非常興奮能擴大工廠規模，從中獲得更多價值，這樣在我們進行第二個專案的同時，就能帶來更持續的收益成長。就專案收入而言，顯然，在當前的市場環境下，尤其是在耐用消費品領域，許多更新的內容都投入了我們的特種 Tritan 產品。終端市場的成長速度沒有達到我們的預期，這意味著產品發布速度也不夠快。但展望明年，有兩件事。我們在特種保險領域不斷取得更多勝利，並持續增強客戶對該領域的信心，促使他們承諾購買並支付保費。

But the rPET is a significant step-up. So we told you last year that we were -- with adding 80,000 tons of new Tritan capacity, we could take an existing Tritan line and switch it back over to making rPET, along with a couple of other lines that we have that are able to do that. So it gave us a decent amount of capacity to make rPET. And we've been really encouraged by several customers, very interested and committed to growing their rPET in different applications. And the commitment and the strength of their interest is really driven by the challenges they're having in mechanically recycled content, where the color is not great.

但 rPET 是一項重大進步。所以我們去年告訴過你們，隨著新增 8 萬噸 Tritan 產能，我們可以將現有的 Tritan 生產線改回生產 rPET，以及我們擁有的其他幾條能夠做到這一點的生產線。因此，它為我們提供了相當可觀的rPET生產能力。許多客戶都非常熱衷於在不同的應用領域推廣他們的 rPET，這讓我們倍受鼓舞。他們的投入和濃厚興趣，實際上是源自於他們在機械回收材料方面遇到的挑戰，因為這些材料的顏色並不理想。

The appearance on the shelf is not what they want for their high-end products on the shelf that need to look pristine. And so our product sense is identical basically through the chemical recycling and the purification allows us to provide virgin quality product on the shelf. So we expect a very significant step-up in volume to go a good distance in filling up that capacity. And that revenue, which is also at attractive margins, combined with specialty will give us a big step-up in revenue versus where we are this year. And those commitments are close to complete.

他們不希望貨架上的商品外觀不符合他們的要求，因為他們的高端產品需要看起來完美無瑕。因此，透過化學回收和提純，我們的產品本質上是相同的，這使我們能夠在貨架上提供全新品質的產品。因此，我們預計銷量將大幅成長，從而在很大程度上填補這一產能缺口。而且，這些收入利潤率也很可觀，再加上特色產品，將使我們的營收比今年大幅成長。這些承諾已接近完成。

So we feel very good about where we are on that. And then when it comes to building the second plant, the great thing about the debottleneck as it gives us time to work on a much more capital-efficient way of building that plant. And it also allows us to delay a step-up in capital right now in this economic environment. But we are making great progress on three different options of where we could leverage existing assets very effectively in combination with our methanolysis technology to build the plant in a much more affordable manner. We know the value of vertical integration, which we do in Kingsport with everything we do and that applies when you're building something new, too. So we're excited about that. We're not going to give much more in the details on that. Hopefully, we'll have more to say in January.

所以我們對目前在這方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。至於建造第二座工廠，瓶頸消除帶來的好處是，它給了我們時間去研究一種資本效率更高的建廠方式。而且，在當前的經濟環境下，這也使我們能夠推遲增加資本投入。但是，我們在三個不同的方案上取得了巨大進展，我們可以非常有效地利用現有資產，並結合我們的甲醇解技術，以更經濟的方式建造工廠。我們深知垂直整合的價值，我們在金斯波特所做的每一件事中都體現了這一點，這在建造新事物時也同樣適用。我們對此感到很興奮。我們不會透露更多細節。希望一月份我們能有更多消息要宣布。

Perfect. And Mark, just on Q1, looking to next year, how should earnings ramp from Q4 to Q1? I assume most of the asset utilization headwinds should be gone by then. Is that fair?

完美的。馬克，就第一季而言，展望明年，獲利應該如何從第四季到第一季成長？我估計到那時，大部分資產利用率的不利因素應該都會消失。這樣公平嗎？

Yes, the asset utilization headwind turns into a tailwind as you look at Q1, that's one of several factors. You have the normal seasonality of Q4, where demand is just always low, especially in Advanced Materials and AFP. So that snaps back seasonal paint, lots of things being made for holiday season. Just you don't get orders for that in the fourth quarter, but they start doing that in the first quarter. In fact, in our specialty plastics business, we have a number of our customers are already talking to us about their plans on buying more volume relative to where they are today.

是的，從第一季來看，資產利用率的不利因素會轉變為有利因素，這是幾個因素之一。第四季存在正常的季節性因素，需求總是很低，尤其是在先進材料和AFP領域。這樣就能帶動季節性油漆的銷售，很多東西都是為節慶季節製作的。只是第四季不會接到這類訂單，但第一季就開始接到了。事實上，在我們特種塑膠業務領域，已經有許多客戶與我們洽談，並計劃增加採購量，以超越他們目前的採購量。

So that's encouraging. So I think you have that. You also have this exaggeration of this inventory that was built in the first half of the year being used up in the second half of the year. which is also artificially pushing demand down in the fourth quarter beyond normal seasonality. And our belief is that there's a good probability that will be fully depleted hopefully, by the end of the year.

這令人鼓舞。所以我覺得你已經具備了這一點。此外，上半年累積的庫存被誇大為下半年消耗殆盡，這也人為地壓低了第四季的需求，使其低於正常的季節性波動。我們相信，到今年年底，這些資源很有可能會被完全消耗殆盡。

It's very hard to know we've learned our lesson about guessing on what happens with inventory depletions back in 2023, but there's a big difference this time, which is in '21-'22, there's a huge amount of inventory built on the expectation of a lot of growth. This year, no one expected a lot of growth. And you can see in the retailer data or the consumer brand data, they didn't build that much inventory. They moved around the planet a lot to get it in the right places to avoid tariff risk, including our products into China and Europe. But they didn't build a lot of inventory.

很難說我們已經吸取了 2023 年庫存消耗情況的教訓，但這次的情況大不相同，因為在 2021-2022 年，由於預期會有很大的增長，所以積累了大量的庫存。今年，沒有人預料到會有很大的成長。從零售商數據或消費者品牌數據可以看出，他們並沒有建立那麼多庫存。為了避免關稅風險，他們將產品運往世界各地，包括運往中國和歐洲的產品，以便將它們送到合適的地方。但他們並沒有囤積大量庫存。

So they don't have that much actually to unwind. So we should get some relief on that as well, we hope. And then, of course, the revenue we just talked about in methanolysis is starting to kick in and the rPET really ramps up in Q1, over normal innovation that's always driving some growth. And then the cost actions is the last part that should also help. As you have ramped up the cost actions through this year, that should annualize into an advantage for Q1.

所以他們其實沒有太多可以放鬆的事情。所以我們希望這方面也能得到一些緩解。當然，我們剛才提到的甲醇解業務的收入也開始顯現，rPET 業務在第一季也真正加速成長，這得益於正常的創新，而創新總是會推動一些成長。最後，成本控制措施也是應該有所幫助的部分。由於您今年加大了成本控制力度，這應該會在第一季轉化為年度優勢。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyCorp.

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyCorp。

Mark, can you just discuss this dynamic with Renew? Your customers seem to be interested in the specialty applications for the polymer, but they're not actually buying the volumes. So how do you gauge their real interest and sort of ability to pay for the price you're charging for Renew?

馬克，你能和Renew公司談談這種動態嗎？您的客戶似乎對聚合物的特殊應用感興趣，但他們的實際購買量並不大。那麼，你如何衡量他們對 Renew 的真正興趣以及他們支付你所收取的價格的能力呢？

It's a great question. It's come up a number of times. The value of Renew is to put it in a product as a way to differentiate that product and being different on the shelf, right? And they do that to get a better price point to get some volume growth. So that's how any of these -- especially on the consumer durable side of things, think about the value of this content.

這是一個很好的問題。這個問題已經被提過好幾次了。Renew 的價值在於將其添加到產品中，以使產品脫穎而出，在貨架上與眾不同，對嗎？他們這樣做是為了獲得更優惠的價格，從而實現銷售成長。所以，所有這些——尤其是耐用消費品領域的——都是這樣看待這些內容的價值的。

So there was extreme strong interest in this in '21 into '24 and they saw this opportunity. But the economic determinant of seeing the value and realizing the value depends on the end market and consumer actually being there to buy it. And when you have consumer durable markets being soft, and not growing very much. Last year, they were a little hesitant on how much they wanted to try and launch new products in that soft environment. I have to remember that building construction demand -- I mean, sorry, consumer durable demand in '24 is probably 5% to 15% below 2019 depending on the product.

因此，在 2021 年到 2024 年期間，人們對這個領域表現出了極大的興趣，他們看到了這個機會。但是，能否看到價值並實現價值，取決於最終市場和消費者是否真的有購買意願。當耐用消費品市場疲軟，成長乏力。去年，他們對於在這種寬鬆的環境下嘗試推出新產品還有些猶豫。我必須記住，2024 年的建築施工需求——我是說，抱歉，是耐用消費品的需求——可能比 2019 年下降 5% 到 15%，具體取決於產品。

And it's connected to home sales. If you remember home sales -- all home sales are triggering event for durables, right? And that's down 20% in '24 versus '19 in the US and Europe and China is even worse. So the underlying market of trigger events to buy new products is weak.

而且它與房屋銷售有關。如果你還記得房屋銷售——所有房屋銷售都是耐用品銷售的觸發事件，對吧？2024 年美國和歐洲的數字比 2019 年下降了 20%，而中國的情況更糟。因此，觸發購買新產品的潛在市場因素疲軟。

So in that context, while it's great to see we still have over 100 customers, we won't have one cancel their commitment to Renew. The rate at which they're launching that Renew into new products and getting volume from the consumers is just limited by the end market constraints. Good news is the pent-up demand is accumulating. These appliances are all getting really old for one bought in COVID, and so you expect that at some point with some stability in the economy. You're going to see a pretty significant resurgence in demand because it's adding up under the curve from '22 to now. And the trade war, of course, just made the challenge even worse this year, as I described earlier. So it doesn't change our confidence. If they're really not interested they cut the orders and they're not doing that.

所以，在這種情況下，雖然很高興看到我們仍然有 100 多位客戶，但我們不會讓任何一位客戶取消他們對 Renew 的承諾。他們將 Renew 技術應用於新產品並從消費者那裡獲得銷售的速度，僅受限於終端市場的限制。好消息是，被壓抑的需求正在累積。這些電器都是在新冠疫情期間購買的，現在都已經很舊了，所以隨著經濟的穩定，這種情況遲早會發生。你會看到需求出現相當大的回升，因為從 2022 年到現在，需求一直在曲線下累積。當然，正如我之前所述，貿易戰讓今年的挑戰變得更加嚴峻。所以這不會改變我們的信心。如果他們真的不感興趣，他們會減少訂單，但他們並沒有這樣做。

And second question on Fibers. Why are volumes just stable next year in terms of your expectations? I thought we had some weaker textiles this year and also you have some customer destock. Could you just talk about these dynamics, how you see them evolving next year?

第二個問題是關於纖維的。為什麼您預計明年的銷售量將保持穩定？我認為我們今年的一些紡織品品質較差，而且你們也有一些客戶的庫存需要清倉處理。您能否談談這些動態，以及您認為它們明年將如何發展？

Yes, there's a lot of moving parts inside the Fibers business. And as I mentioned in the second quarter call, about 40% of the challenges in Fibers is not associated with the tow business, right? So to your point, textiles, which was a source of growth to offset total market decline up through '24 and have done it nicely, something flipped in this whole tariff issue that we've run into where we had modest growth year-over-year in the first quarter that then flips to a mid-single-digit headwind, whether it's housewares or textiles or appliances in May after the sort of tariff announced in April created a headwind there. So -- and it's turning out to be a bit more than we thought. So we told you $20 million headwind.

是的，纖維產業內部有許多環節在運作。正如我在第二季電話會議上提到的，光纖業務中約 40% 的挑戰與拖車業務無關，對吧？所以，正如您所說，紡織品曾是2024年之前抵消整體市場下滑的成長動力，而且表現良好。但在我們遇到的整個關稅問題中，情況發生了轉變。第一季我們實現了適度的同比增長，但到了5月份，無論是家居用品、紡織品還是家電，都出現了個位數的逆風，這都是因為4月份宣布的那種關稅造成了不利影響。所以——結果比我們想像的還要多一些。所以我們之前說過，我們將面臨2000萬美元的逆風。

We think it's more closer to $30 million headwind for the back half of this year as we sort of go through the back half. So that is a real headwind in textiles. Now the good news about textiles is, this is a cyclical demand change. It's not structural. So when we think about in recovery, we already can see some places where we're gaining some share.

我們認為，隨著我們進入下半年，今年下半年面臨的阻力可能更接近 3,000 萬美元。所以這對紡織業來說是一個真正的逆風。現在紡織品方面的好消息是，這是一種週期性的需求變化。這不是結構性問題。所以當我們考慮復甦時，我們已經可以看到在某些領域我們正在獲得一些市場份額。

We're trying to move outside of China where the reciprocal tariffs are hurting us into China with their product to other markets. And so we're confident we can rebuild that business, and we'll start doing some of that next year. The whole stream had less demand. So we had a $20 million headwind out of asset utilization across the stream in the back half of the year, that's impacting -- that's the part that's impacting Fibers. We had some higher energy costs that probably doesn't become a tailwind.

我們正試圖將業務拓展到中國以外的市場，因為對等關稅正在損害我們向中國出口產品以及向其他市場出口產品的利益。因此我們有信心重建這項業務，明年我們將開始著手進行一些重建工作。整個流域的需求量都下降了。因此，今年下半年，由於整個業務流的資產利用率下降，我們面臨 2,000 萬美元的不利影響，這影響了光纖業務。我們面臨一些較高的能源成本，這可能不會成為有利因素。

But the textiles and the asset utilization can reverse and become a tailwind as we go into next year and the following years. So that takes you to the remainder, which is tow. Obviously, there was a pretty significant step down in tow volume this year that was driven by the destocking. The more we dig into and the more we learn on inventory, our customers built in tow is pretty significant due to all the concerns they had about reliability of supply when the market was so tight. And now that the market is a bit looser, they're feeling because of the capacity out in China, they're feeling they can take that inventory down.

但紡織品和資產利用率可能會逆轉，並在明年及以後的幾年成為有利因素。所以剩下的就是 tow。顯然，今年拖車數量出現了相當大的下降，這是由於庫存減少造成的。我們越深入研究，對庫存了解得越多，就越發現客戶在市場如此緊張的情況下，由於對供應可靠性的擔憂，其內置拖車數量相當可觀。現在市場稍微寬鬆了一些，他們覺得由於中國的產能，他們可以降低庫存。

And that's the vast majority of what the drop is. I mean we don't expect it to get worse next year, but we do expect it to continue into next year and to some degree, lessen, but a little hard to call. It's a bit like what we went through with the medical destocking. It's not a single year destock. And then there was some share that was -- lost by the industry to the new entrants, and so we're adjusting to that dynamic from China.

這就是跌幅的絕大部分原因。我的意思是，我們預計明年情況不會更糟，但我們預計這種情況會持續到明年，並在某種程度上有所緩解，但這很難說。這有點像我們之前經歷的醫療物資撤離。這不是一年的清倉拍賣。然後，行業內的一些市場份額被新進入者奪走了，所以我們正在調整以適應來自中國的這種動態。

And so as we look at that, we think that the share situation is stabilizing, destocking will continue, but not get worse. And when you put that together, if we manage our positions correctly in the marketplace, we should have stable volume.

因此，從這個角度來看，我們認為股票市場狀況正在趨於穩定，去庫存化將會持續，但不會惡化。綜合以上因素，如果我們能在市場上正確管理部位，就能維持交易量的穩定。

Patrick Cunningham, Citigroup.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗集團。

I apologize if I missed this, but on the Pepsi contract, can you remind us in rough terms what the initial agreement looks like? And what is prompting restructuring of that agreement?

如果我錯過了什麼，我深表歉意。關於百事可樂的合同，您能否大致回顧一下最初的協議內容？是什麼原因促使雙方對該協議進行重組？

So the Pepsi contract was a very important foundational baseload contract to give us confidence in building the second plant. So the volumes, which we've not disclosed due to the confidentiality with Pepsi, is sufficient to baseload a second plant at 100,000 tons of scale, which is similar to the one we currently have built here, which will now be 30% greater than that with our debottlenecking capability.

因此，百事可樂的合約是一項非常重要的基礎性基本負荷合同，它給了我們建造第二家工廠的信心。因此，由於與百事可樂的保密協議，我們沒有透露具體的產量，但產量足以支撐第二家工廠的基本產能達到 10 萬噸，這與我們目前在這裡建造的工廠類似，而透過我們的瓶頸消除能力，第二家工廠的產能將比現在高出 30%。

So that contract provided provisions to give us confidence in the revenue that will come from it, both in price stability that would move with the changes in our key variable costs on feedstock and energy and it would give us committed volume in that contract. And that contract was obviously designed around when that second plant would start, which is obviously even back then in a couple of years out. The change when we say restructuring is, we've been very successfully working with them on how to move that volume into next year -- start the volume next year.

因此，該合約提供了相關條款，使我們對由此產生的收入充滿信心，既保證了價格穩定（價格會隨著原料和能源等主要可變成本的變化而波動），又保證了合約中承諾的產量。顯然，這份合約是根據第二家工廠何時開工製定的，而當時顯然是在幾年後。我們所說的重整變化是，我們一直在與他們非常成功地合作，探討如何將該業務量轉移到明年——從明年開始。

So they're one of the companies that certainly see a lot of value in rPET and recycling content and want to have high-quality products on the shelf. -- so they're interested in volume next year. And that's -- the restructuring is pulling forward the start of that contract.

所以他們是少數幾家非常重視rPET和回收成分，並希望貨架上擺放高品質產品的公司之一。 ——因此，他們對明年的銷售很感興趣。而重組意味著合約的生效日期將提前。

Great. And then just at a high level, how should we think about CI earnings next year? You had some asset utilization tailwinds, cost reduction. And is there anything encouraging you're seeing from either trade regulations or perhaps planned asset rationalization that maybe help pull forward an inflection point there?

偉大的。那麼，從宏觀層面來看，我們該如何看待明年CI的獲利情況呢？你們獲得了一些資產利用率提升和成本降低的利多因素。您在貿易法規或資產合理化計畫方面是否看到任何令人鼓舞的跡象，或許有助於推動該領域的轉捩點到來？

Yes, it's a good question. I mean, so first of all, obviously, we're in we're in a manufacturing recession across the entire business that started in '22, and we're now in our third -- actually going into our fourth year of being in a recession and there's no precedent in history of this, right? In '09 or 2020, you have a sharp drop and then a sharp recovery and everyone sort of goes and moves on. So it's hard to look at the current situation for present and you also have a lot more capacity out of China being sort of dumped on the planet at very low prices. So the CI dynamic in the whole commodity industry and large is going through a fairly unique situation.

是的，這是個好問題。我的意思是，首先，很顯然，我們正處於整個製造業的衰退期，這場衰退始於 2022 年，現在我們已經進入了第三年——實際上即將進入第四年——經濟衰退，這在歷史上是沒有先例的，對吧？2009 或 2020 年，經濟出現急劇下滑，然後迅速反彈，大家都繼續前進。所以很難從當前情勢來看待這個問題，而且中國還有大量的產能以非常低的價格傾銷到世界各地。因此，整個大宗商品產業的競爭格局正經歷著相當獨特的局面。

To answer your question, I do think there is a lot of rationalization of capacity going on in Europe and is expected that will continue. I think the Chinese government is trying to make some impacts on rationalization, but it's unclear how much and how far they will go on that. But without a doubt, capacity is coming out of the marketplace. But the market's loose. So it's a little hard to know exactly when that's going to tighten the markets up and get back to some more stable conditions.

回答你的問題，我認為歐洲正在進行大量的產能合理化調整，而且預計這種情況還會繼續下去。我認為中國政府正試圖在合理化方面做出一些努力，但目前還不清楚他們會在這方面投入多少精力和多大程度。但毫無疑問，產能正在從市場上消失。但市場行情寬鬆。因此，很難確切地知道這種情況何時會使市場收緊並恢復到更穩定的狀態。

So that's one dynamic, and it's a little hard to call. I can definitely tell you the back half of this year is definitely at the bottom from a competitive cash cost point of view with the Chinese pricing into these markets. From outside the US. The tariffs are providing a bit of protection to the margins to us in North America. So the second challenge we have is that the North American market, which is where we predominantly want to sell everything we make if we can, always has higher margins and is an attractive market.

所以這是其中一個動態因素，很難說清楚。我可以肯定地告訴你，從現金成本的競爭力角度來看，今年下半年中國產品的定價已經跌至谷底。來自美國境外。關稅在一定程度上保護了我們在北美的利潤空間。因此，我們面臨的第二個挑戰是，北美市場（如果可以的話，我們希望將我們生產的所有產品主要銷往那裡）的利潤率總是更高，是一個很有吸引力的市場。

So when the trade war impacted demand in building and construction in consumer durables or we didn't get a lift in recovery in housing that everyone expected at the beginning of this year, the demand of those products in this market came down, and that's a mix hit because margins here a lot better than the export markets, which have become very challenged with the Chinese capacity being sort of put on the global market. So recovery in demand on housing, interest rates causing housing recovery and durables recovery will immediately start improving the mix and earnings value of CI. So that, I believe, will help next year because I think odds are -- some of that demand will get better than where we are right now. We also, as I mentioned, just have a lot more volume to sell next year. So we'll have that benefit.

因此，當貿易戰影響到建築業和耐用消費品的需求，或者今年年初住房市場沒有像大家預期的那樣出現復甦時，這些產品在這個市場的需求就下降了，這對市場造成了雙重打擊，因為這裡的利潤率比出口市場要高得多，而出口市場由於中國產能被推向全球市場而面臨巨大挑戰。因此，住房需求的復甦、利率的下降以及耐用品市場的復甦將立即開始改善CI的組成和獲利價值。所以我相信這會對明年有所幫助，因為我認為很有可能——部分需求會比我們現在的情況好轉。正如我之前提到的，我們明年還有更大的銷售需要銷售。這樣我們就能享受這種好處。

And then we have a lot of aggressive cost structure, as you know, going on and reducing the costs here in this year as well as next year and CI picks up a good portion of that cost. So there are a number of reasons CI earnings can get better, but at this stage, I think you would be cautious on just how much spreads would improve until we see more insight on the sort of broader market dynamics.

而且，如您所知，我們正在採取積極的成本結構措施，降低今年和明年的成本，而CI承擔了其中很大一部分成本。因此，CI 的獲利能力可能會有所改善，但現階段，我認為在對更廣泛的市場動態有更多了解之前，對於價差究竟能改善多少，我們應該持謹慎態度。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾，美國銀行。

Yes. So firstly, I wanted to ask, you brought up Fiber as a business that has -- that's facing cyclical and not structural headwinds. And I'm just wondering, in the past few quarters, we've been hearing whether it's from you that you lost some share in China in coatings additives or from other players about interlayers, et cetera, that there has been competitive pressure in China. And I'm wondering, are there any chemical chains where you are actually seeing more structural supply coming in China and where earnings and volumes could go lower in the next three years? And in the case of films or coatings additives, is the issue you've been having this year more cyclical or structural?

是的。首先，我想問一下，您提到光纖產業面臨的是週期性而非結構性逆風。我只是想知道，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們聽到了一些消息，無論是您透露的，您在中國塗料添加劑領域的市場份額有所下降，還是其他廠商透露的，關於中間層等方面的市場份額下降，都表明中國市場存在競爭壓力。我想知道，是否存在某些化工產業鏈，其結構性供應更多來自中國，而未來三年內其收益和銷售量可能會下降？就薄膜或塗料添加劑而言，您今年遇到的問題是週期性的還是結構性的？

There's a lot of questions buried in that question. So I'm going to try and hit them. First, I just want to clarify, when we talked about what's going on in fibers, the cyclical part is textiles where that demand and a lot of it is sold into China has come off. We don't really have much competition in that product in a direct like product that we make in our Naia yarn. But obviously, there's constant substitution going on across different chemistries of textiles, which is where we're winning all of our share because our product is so much more sustainable than the other markets that we sell into, and that's why we're confident long term in that product.

這個問題裡隱藏著很多問題。所以我打算試著擊中他們。首先，我想澄清一下，當我們談到纖維產業的情況時，週期性波動的部分指的是紡織品，其中許多需求都銷往了中國，而這些需求已經下降了。在我們用Naia紗線生產的同類產品中，我們並沒有太多的直接競爭對手。但顯然，不同化學成分的紡織品之間存在著不斷的替代，而這正是我們贏得所有市場份額的地方，因為我們的產品比我們銷售的其他市場的產品更具可持續性，這也是我們對該產品的長期前景充滿信心的原因。

I mean when you have a 60% biopolymer with recycled plastic as the other feedstock and it's -- the microfibers are entirely biodegradable environment, you have a lot of growth opportunities. So we're feeling great about that market and our ability to grow in it. When you asked a question around where we're losing some share. There is -- the lower value part of interlayers is the architectural business, and we lost a bit of share more than we expected this year, which we are regaining back in contracts for next year. And then coalescents is a competitive product where the Chinese have equal coalescents.

我的意思是，當一種含有 60% 生物聚合物，並以回收塑膠為另一種原料，而且微纖維完全可在環境中生物降解時，你就有很多發展機會。因此，我們對這個市場以及我們在其中的成長能力感到非常樂觀。當你問到我們在哪些方面失去了一些市佔率。夾層材料中價值較低的部分是建築業，我們今年的市場份額損失比預期要大一些，但我們正在透過明年的合約重新奪回這些份額。然後，合併器是一種具有競爭力的產品，中國擁有同等的合併器。

And so competition within China is pretty intense. And so we've walked away from some share there. We’re now starting to pick up some share in some other parts of the world. So those dynamics exist. But for the vast majority of what's in AM and AFP, we are fortunate where innovation is strong, and our competitive positions are strong.

因此，中國國內的競爭非常激烈。因此，我們放棄了在那裡的部分股份。我們現在開始在世界其他一些地區獲得一些市場份額。所以這些動態是存在的。但對於 AM 和 AFP 中的絕大多數內容而言，我們很幸運，因為創新能力很強，而且我們的競爭地位也很強。

We don't really face that much direct competition from China capacity at this point. And the dynamics by far, in what's going on from '22 through '25 is more about end market volume demand that's associated first with out-of-control inflation that led to out-of-control interest rate hikes to then a trade war just to make things more interesting. So those are the key things that are driving the situation up to this point. And we don't have any signs of significant capacity being built in our specialties that would be coming online that we can see at this stage.

目前我們並沒有真正面臨來自中國產能的直接競爭。從 2022 年到 2025 年，市場動態主要與終端市場需求量有關，這首先與失控的通貨膨脹有關，導致失控的利率上漲，然後又引發貿易戰，使情況變得更加複雜。所以，以上就是導致目前局面發展的關鍵因素。目前我們還沒有看到任何跡象表明，在我們擅長的領域，將會有大規模的產能建設投入使用。

Perfect. And one quick one on buybacks. I think the -- I may have missed it, but I think last quarter, there was a comment about committing to more buybacks next year than this year. Is this still the case?

完美的。最後再簡單提一下回購的事。我認為——我可能錯過了，但我認為上個季度曾有評論說，明年將比今年進行更多的股票回購。情況仍然如此嗎？

So what I would say is, obviously, we're always disciplined when it comes to capital allocation. We bought another $50 million in addition to our dividend in Q3. We've completed the buybacks that we expect to do this year with keeping our net debt flat on a year-over-year basis. And what I would say is, as we think about the scenarios that Mark described, obviously, we're confident in our dividend in '26 and going forward.

所以我想說的是，很顯然，我們在資本配置方面始終保持嚴謹的態度。第三季度，除了分紅之外，我們還額外買了 5,000 萬美元。我們已完成今年預期進行的股票回購，同時保持淨債務與上年持平。我想說的是，當我們考慮馬克所描述的各種情況時，顯然，我們對 2026 年及以後的股息充滿信心。

And obviously, we don't let cash sit on the balance sheet, but making sure net debt is aligned with and moving back towards our 2.5 times goal. We'll put the rest of the cash to use. But we'll update you in January on what the range of buybacks can look like.

顯然，我們不會讓現金留在資產負債表上，而是確保淨債務與我們 2.5 倍的目標保持一致並朝著這個目標邁進。我們會把剩下的錢用上。但我們將在 1 月向您介紹回購方案的具體內容。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

I want to go back to the initial questions around the bridge to '26 and just really clarify the basis for when you're thinking about what we should be bridging off of? Because I think in your comments, you were adding back inventory actions in the second half, but we know you overproduced in the first half. So should we be thinking about that additive to the full year ? Or is that additive to the second half? I think that's kind of the difference between getting to $5.50 versus something like $6.50 and EPS as a base expectation for 2026. So hoping you can clarify that.

我想回到最初關於「過渡到 2026 年」的問題，並真正澄清一下，當你們思考我們應該以什麼為基礎進行過渡時，你們的出發點是什麼？因為我認為你在評論中提到，你在下半場增加了庫存操作，但我們知道你在上半場生產過剩了。那麼我們是否應該考慮將此因素添加到全年預算中呢？？或者說，這是後半部的附加內容？我認為這就是股價達到 5.50 美元和達到 6.50 美元之間的區別，也是 2026 年每股收益的基本預期。希望您能解釋一下。

Yes, Josh, this is Willie. So on the utilization front, obviously, we've been talking about first half, second half. As you also look at the volume and the demand outlook that Mark described. We've more than offset the inventory build that we had in the first half and expect to do that by the end of the year. and that should give us utilization benefits as we're going through a more normalized year of stable demand that's growing on a year-over-year basis.

是的，喬什，這是威利。所以就利用率方面而言，顯然，我們一直在討論上半年和下半年。就像你看看馬克描述的數量和需求前景一樣。我們已經完全抵銷了上半年的庫存增加，預計到年底就能實現這一目標。隨著需求趨於穩定並逐年成長，這將為我們帶來產能利用率的優勢。

So as we think about utilization, you had at a minimum have $50 million due to the absence of inventory depletion on a year-over-year basis. and hopefully, upside comes from there to the $75 million depending on how much other demand drops to the bottom line.

因此，當我們考慮利用率時，由於庫存同比沒有減少，您至少有 5000 萬美元的利潤。希望在此基礎上，利潤能成長到 7,500 萬美元，取決於其他需求對利潤的影響程度。

Yes. I think just on the underlying volume scenario just for volumes, what I tried to be clear about is don't use the first half or don't use the second half, but put them together and that's a better assumption about what the volume decline for this year is because of all these dynamics going on, which would be around a 4% decline in AM and as I said, around the 2% decline in AFP. And so from a volume point of view, you're building off of that volume base into next year. And then you have the overlaythings like first question for things micro.

是的。我認為，就基本的成交量而言，我試圖明確指出的是，不要只看上半年的數據，也不要只看下半年的數據，而是把它們放在一起，這樣才能更好地假設今年的成交量下降幅度，因為所有這些動態因素都在起作用，AM的成交量下降幅度約為4%，正如我所說，AFP的成交量下降幅度約為2%。因此，從銷售的角度來看，明年你將以此銷售基礎為基礎繼續成長。然後還有一些疊加層，像是第一個問題，是關於微觀層面的。

No, I appreciate that. That makes sense. And I guess, I mean, a related point, I guess, on combining the volumes, I mean, your first half volumes were down low single digits. Your second half is maybe down high single digits. I guess when you look at customer order patterns and what they're talking about, do you expect that to grow over the first half basis? Or because of the exit rate, are volumes actually down in first half in terms of your base thinking and then it's easy comps in the second half?

不，我很感激。這很有道理。我想，還有一點相關的是，關於合併銷量，我的意思是，你們上半年的銷售只有個位數。你們下半場的比分可能會落後個位數。我想，當你觀察客戶的訂單模式以及他們所談論的內容時，你認為上半年訂單量會成長嗎？或者，由於退出率，根據你的基本想法，上半年銷量實際上是否下降，然後下半年很容易實現同比增長？

Well, for sure, the back half is going to be easy comps, so we can answer that question. On the front half, I think it's a little complicated to know exactly how we entered the front half of this year. and how that plays out, especially Q1, right? Because remember, in Q1, our view of the economy, along with everyone else in the industry and our customers was pretty positive, right? They thought demand was going to be relatively stable.

嗯，可以肯定的是，後半程的比賽會比較容易，所以我們可以回答這個問題。上半年的情況比較複雜，很難確切地知道我們是如何進入今年上半年的，以及最終會如何發展，尤其是第一季度，對吧？因為別忘了，在第一季度，我們和業內其他所有人以及我們的客戶一樣，對經濟形勢持相當樂觀的態度，對吧？他們認為需求會相對穩定。

There be some modest growth here and there, that would be lowering interest rates at some point. And so our volume -- the underlying market volume was up about low single digits when we look at some of the places that we sell into, especially in Advanced Materials. And our whole strategy and volume build and manufacturing is built around that will continue for the rest of the year. That's why things flip so much on destocking. So in the back half.

局部地區可能會出現一些小幅增長，這將在某個時候降低利率。因此，當我們查看我們的一些銷售領域，特別是先進材料領域時，我們的銷售量——基礎市場銷售量成長了個位數左右。我們的整個策略、產量提升和生產製造都是圍繞著這一點展開的，並且將在今年餘下的時間裡繼續如此。這就是為什麼在清倉時價格波動如此劇烈的原因。所以，在後半部。

So when you think about that change and how -- and exactly how much of all the inventory is depleted from all this prebuy in the first half and does some of that drag into the first quarter, we just don't know. We're confident Q1 will be better than Q4. It's a little hard to say exactly how it will compare to Q1 of last year. We're going to have to just wait till we get to January to answer that question.

所以，當你思考這種變化以及如何——以及上半年所有這些預購究竟消耗了多少庫存，其中一些是否會拖累到第一季——我們真的不知道。我們有信心第一季業績會優於第四季。很難準確預測它與去年第一季相比會如何。我們只能等到一月才能回答這個問題了。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

Kevin McCarthy，Vertical Research Partners。

Mark, with regard to your Pepsi contract, is there any downside financial risk to Eastman now that you're rethinking the second plant? Or is it the case that there's really no downside risk because you're either protected contractually or you can perform against the contract through supply from Kingsport?

馬克，關於你與百事可樂的合同，既然你現在重新考慮第二家工廠，這對伊士曼公司來說是否存在任何不利的財務風險？或者，是否因為有合約保護或可以透過從金斯波特供貨來履行合同，所以實際上沒有下行風險？

Well, first of all, we feel great about having them as a partner. We feel great about them seeing the value of recycled content, the importance of recycling their packaging in the market and creating our closed loop. And they've been a true leader in the industry on this front, and we're proud to have them as our baseload. And when it comes to the contract, we believe the way the contract is structured, we can reliably supply them from Kingsport and the debottleneck that we're going to get that extra 30% and the different ways we can configure polymer lines to support what they need. So clearly, we want that baseload contract to support our second plant.

首先，我們非常高興能與他們合作。我們很高興他們看到了再生材料的價值，認識到在市場上回收包裝的重要性，並創建了我們的閉環系統。他們一直是業界的真正領導者，我們很自豪能以他們為基石。至於合約方面，我們相信，根據合約的結構，我們可以從金斯波特可靠地向他們供貨，消除瓶頸，我們將獲得額外的 30% 的產能，並且我們可以配置不同的聚合物生產線來滿足他們的需求。所以很明顯，我們希望這份基礎負荷合約能夠支持我們的第二座工廠。

But with the actions that we've taken, we're in a position to support them from the different existing lines and how they can be configured and the margins are attractive and give us a good return on investment around Renew. So we're happy to support them.

但透過我們採取的行動，我們能夠從不同的現有產品線為他們提供支持，並且這些產品線可以如何配置，利潤率也很有吸引力，能夠為我們帶來良好的投資回報。所以我們很樂意支持他們。

Great. And then as a second question, I think you've raised your dividend every year since 2010. And with the actions you've taken, it looks like you've really supported the cash flow. I think you said approaching $1 billion. So given that's the case, would it be reasonable to expect that streak of annual dividend increases to perpetuate? I realize it's a board decision, but it does seem like you're generating enough cash to do that. Any thoughts along those lines, Mark?

偉大的。第二個問題是，我想問一下，自 2010 年以來，你們每年都在提高股利。從你採取的行動來看，你似乎確實改善了現金流。我想你說過接近10億美元。有鑑於此，是否可以合理預期這種連續年度股息成長的趨勢會持續下去？我知道這是董事會的決定，但看起來你們確實賺到了足夠的錢來做到這一點。馬克，你對此有什麼想法嗎？

Well, first, thanks for the question and bringing up how solid and attractive our dividend is which is well covered by our cash flow as you also recognized. To your point, it is a Board decision, and we're not going to get in front of that process. But we do have a record of 15 consecutive years, and I think that speaks for itself. Also, as you've seen in our most recent dividends, they haven't really significantly impacted the cash flows that are required to ultimately fund the dividend going forward. And we do have a strong cash flow that we would expect in 2026.

首先，感謝您的提問，也感謝您提到我們股息的穩健性和吸引力，正如您所看到的，我們的現金流足以覆蓋股息。你說得對，這是董事會的決定，我們不會幹預這個過程。但我們保持著連續15年的紀錄，我認為這本身就說明了一切。此外，正如您在我們最近的股息中看到的那樣，它們並沒有對未來最終支付股息所需的現金流產生重大影響。我們預計在 2026 年將擁有強勁的現金流。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

And if I could get a little more granular on the outlook question. Going back beginning of August, the expectation was 4Q would be in line, if not better than 3Q. And then in September, Willie indicated that 4Q might be a little bit weaker than 3Q and then, obviously, with last night's guide, things got even weaker. So I'm wondering if you can speak to the pace of activity that you've seen in the past couple of months? And what are your order books suggesting here for November? And how confident can you be that this is the bottom?

如果我能更詳細地談談前景問題就好了。回顧8月初，當時的預期是第四季業績將與第三季持平，甚至可能更好。9 月份，威利表示第四季可能會比第三季略弱一些，而昨晚的預測顯然表明情況更糟了。所以我想請您談談過去幾個月來您所看到的業務發展速度？那麼，你們的訂單簿顯示，11月的訂單狀況如何？你有多大把握認為這就是底部？

That's a good question, Frank. And as you may adjust, we spent a lot of time trying to understand all the market dynamics that we're in right now, and it is a very chaotic time. It's hard to even get high-quality data to know what's going on in the marketplace. And so for doing everything we can to understand it. The dynamic, whether from the Q2 call to September to now and what's changed is demand.

法蘭克，你問得好。正如您可能已經意識到的，我們花了很多時間試圖了解我們目前所處的各種市場動態，而現在正處於一個非常混亂的時期。即使是獲取高品質數據來了解市場動態都很難。因此，我們要盡一切努力去理解它。從第二季財報電話會議到九月再到現在，變化最大的就是需求。

Nothing else has changed. Our cost plans are on track. In fact, we're probably being a bit more aggressive in cost management with the challenges that we face. The price/cost relationships on spreads and everything else are holding up as we expected. So it really is just a question of end-market demand and how it's trending.

其他一切都沒有改變。我們的成本控制計劃進展順利。事實上，面對我們面臨的挑戰，我們在成本管理方面可能採取了更積極的措施。價差和其他所有方面的價格/成本關係都符合我們的預期。所以，這其實只是終端市場需求及其發展趨勢的問題。

And it really connects back to this question, which is just where exactly is consumer demand right now and how it's changed after April as well as the -- just how much inventory is out there that was built in warehouses all over the country in the US or warehouses with our Tritan and other cellulosics, et cetera, in China, that was bought ahead of potential risk on those retaliatory tariffs getting worse or et cetera. So we don't know exactly how long that's going to take. Clearly, with the way the order patterns have evolved, where we thought it was going to be relatively short back in July, is dragging out through the back half of the year, but it's -- the thing that gives us comfort is they just haven't built that much inventory, as I said earlier, in total, from what we can see from all the public companies that we sell to or the retailers. So there's a limit on just how much they can do this.

這其實與這個問題有關，那就是目前消費者的需求究竟在哪裡，以及自 4 月以來發生了怎樣的變化，還有——在美國各地的倉庫中，或者在中國存放著我們的 Tritan 和其他纖維素等產品的倉庫中，究竟有多少庫存，這些都是在報復性關稅進一步惡化等潛在風險之前購買的。所以我們還不清楚具體需要多久。顯然，訂單模式的演變方式表明，我們在 7 月認為訂單量會相對較短，但現在訂單量卻持續到了下半年。不過，讓我們感到欣慰的是，正如我之前所說，從我們銷售的所有上市公司或零售商的情況來看，他們的庫存總量並沒有那麼多。所以他們能做的也是有限度的。

But it depends on where consumer demand goes. So all those dynamics are in play. And the fourth quarter is always a wild card, especially as you go through the quarter. October revenue came in as expected. So we feel good about that.

但這取決於消費者需求的走向。所以所有這些因素都在起作用。第四節總是充滿變數，尤其是在比賽進行過程中。10月份的收入符合預期。所以我們對此感到很滿意。

And we're just going to have to see how things trend. We are encouraged, for example, in specialty plastics with these customers that are in a very long supply chain to make consumer durables talking to us already about planning for higher orders in Q1. So that's encouraging. But it's way too early to call exactly how this is going to play out from a precise timing point of view.

我們只能拭目以待，看看事態如何發展。例如，我們感到鼓舞的是，在特種塑膠領域，這些客戶處於很長的供應鏈中，生產耐用消費品，他們已經在和我們討論計劃在第一季度增加訂單。這令人鼓舞。但從精確的時間安排來看，現在斷言這件事最終會如何發展還為時過早。

Okay, understood. And you did mention that you're becoming a little bit more aggressive on the cost reduction front. You announced the 7% headcount reduction. Can you talk to the to the locations, geographies and how much of that is embedded in that $175 million in cost cuts that you're expecting between '25 and '26?

好的，明白了。您也提到過，您在降低成本方面正採取更積極的措施。你宣布了​​裁員7%的計畫。您能否談談具體地點、地理位置，以及您預計在 2025 年至 2026 年間削減的 1.75 億美元成本中，有多少包含了這些削減？

So Frank, on the cost discipline, it's a fundamental part of who Eastman is and our strategy. I would also say that the cost reductions that we set out and it's a very aggressive level of cost reductions for both '25 and '26, both offset some of the declines in Fibers and our Chemical Intermediates that may not be recovered. And it's also been foundational to our ability to basically support our growth and our growth spend for innovation. As I think about this year, our net savings is going to exceed the $75 million target that we set out at the beginning of the year. And the momentum that we've gained in the back half gives us confidence now that we can raise next year's net number to $100 million on top of that.

所以弗蘭克，成本控制是伊士曼公司本質和策略的重要組成部分。我還要說，我們制定的成本削減計劃（2025 年和 2026 年的成本削減幅度都非常大）抵消了纖維和化學中間體部分可能無法恢復的下滑。而且，它也為我們提供了支持自身成長和創新成長支出的基礎。回顧今年，我們的淨節省金額將超過年初設定的 7,500 萬美元目標。我們在下半年取得的動能讓我們有信心，明年的淨收入可以在此基礎上再增加 1 億美元。

As you think about gross numbers, that's in excess of $300 million of cost reduction actions. It's really driven by three core areas. It's effectively productivity, it's also being competitive on both the manufacturing and functional standpoint. And now with the acceleration of AI, how do we bring that to scale within Eastman, both in our commercial as well as our manufacturing areas. As you talked about the 7%, the 7% is our headcount that we started at the beginning of the year and where we expect to be at the end of the year.

從總額來看，這相當於超過 3 億美元的成本削減措施。它主要由三個核心領域驅動。實際上，這關乎生產效率，也關乎在製造和功能上的競爭力。隨著人工智慧的加速發展，我們如何在伊士曼公司內部，無論是在商業領域還是製造領域，實現人工智慧的規模化應用？正如你所提到的7%，7%是我們年初的員工人數，也是我們預計年底的員工人數。

So we've been doing that effectively across our enterprise, both in response to the environment that we're in, but also as we think about how do we compete in a world that's only going to continue to raise the bar as we think about excellence. So as we think about reclaiming productivity, I think there's been studies post COVID that have demonstrated a loss of productivity of at least 8%. And that also was compounded with the impact of retirements that both happened at Eastman as well as across the chemical sector have a lot of knowledge. So this is not just normal productivity of offsetting labor, it's going above and beyond to recapture productivity more broadly. And the only way that you get that, we've been investing in capability, training, structure and how we get work done.

因此，我們一直在整個企業範圍內有效地執行這項策略，這既是為了應對我們所處的環境，也是為了思考我們如何在一個不斷提高卓越標準的世界中保持競爭力。因此，當我們思考如何恢復生產力時，我認為新冠疫情後的一些研究表明，生產力下降了至少 8%。此外，伊士曼公司以及整個化學產業大量人員退休也加劇了這種情況，這些人擁有豐富的知識。所以這不僅僅是正常的抵消性勞動生產力，而是更進一步地重新奪回更廣泛的生產力。而要實現這一點，我們一直在投資能力、培訓、結構以及我們完成工作的方式。

As you think about areas beyond just productivity, part of this we just announced optimizing our footprint. We've continued, like we have in the past to look at how we should manage these supply chains. Supply chains have, I'll call it -- put an inordinate amount of cost both through tariffs, through logistics over the past several years. And the example that we optimized here in Q3 with the announcements around how we're going to run our films business, basically from a regional asset footprint, which is resulting in some restructuring here in the US of our assets.

當您考慮生產力以外的領域時，我們只是宣布優化我們的足跡，這也是其中的一部分。我們像以往一樣，繼續研究應該如何管理這些供應鏈。可以說，在過去幾年裡，供應鏈透過關稅和物流造成了過高的成本。我們在第三季優化了電影業務的運作方式，並宣布了相關公告，基本上是從區域資產佈局的角度出發，這導致我們在美國的一些資產進行了重組。

So we will continue to transform how we do maintenance, also how we think about reliability and you've got to have the right partners. So we've gone through transformation this year of changing out partners across a couple of our large assets, both here in Tennessee and Texas. And as you think about, we're getting that benefit run rate here in the back half, that gives me confidence that we're going to deliver the $100 million as well as we go into next year. And from there, it's AI. This is where it gets really exciting as you think about in our technology space, right?

因此，我們將繼續改變我們的維護方式，以及我們對可靠性的思考方式，而且你必須擁有合適的合作夥伴。今年，我們對位於田納西州和德克薩斯州的幾項大型資產進行了轉型，並取代了合作夥伴。仔細想想，我們在下半年獲得了這樣的收益，這讓我有信心，我們明年也能實現 1 億美元的目標。然後，就發展成了人工智慧。當你思考我們科技領域的事情時，你會發現這真的很令人興奮，對吧？

This is where we can ultimately reduce the cost of innovation, the speed to market as we look at predicting what formulations are going to be the right formulations to take to market and also as we think about the capacity. -- that we need and where we need that.

這正是我們最終能夠降低創新成本、加快產品上市速度的關鍵所在，因為我們需要預測哪些配方才是最適合推向市場的配方，同時也要考慮我們需要的產能以及產能的用途。

Finally, I would just give the example on the commercial front, right? We're -- ultimately, as we think about commercial, commercial excellence that Mark has highlighted on pricing. We're using AI when it comes to setting up compelling offers, how we generate returns off of those offers and also how we build off of that and win new business. So those are a spectrum. We're rightsizing the costs so that we can invest in innovation for the long term, and we're on track to deliver both here in '25 and in '26.

最後，我就舉個商業方面的例子吧？歸根結底，當我們思考商業時，我們關注的是馬克在定價方面強調的商業卓越性。我們在製定有吸引力的產品方案、如何從這些方案中獲得回報以及如何在此基礎上贏得新業務方面都運用了人工智慧。所以它們構成了一個連續光譜。我們正在合理控製成本，以便能夠長期投資於創新，我們預計在 2025 年和 2026 年實現這兩個目標。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

麥克西森，富國銀行。

Mark, when you think about the portfolio that you have now, I think the hope over the last decade was to move it to more specialty-type areas, your multiples compressed a lot. When you think about what to do for the next five years or so, do you think you need to make any changes? The results granted unprecedented times has been difficult. So when you think about things to do, to improve the portfolio, any thoughts there?

馬克，想想你現在的投資組合，我認為過去十年你的希望是將其轉移到更多專業領域的投資，你的倍數壓縮了很多。當你思考未來五年左右的發展方向時，你認為需要做出哪些改變？前所未有的時代帶來了許多挑戰。那麼，在思考如何改進作品集時，你有什麼想法嗎？

Mike, thanks for the question. So we're always thinking about our portfolio, and we're always thinking about where we want to go in the future. I want to emphasize that the core strategy we put in place that really goes back over a decade to be an innovation-centric company is absolutely the correct strategy, especially as one to get through all this chaos. You defend value and market share because you have differentiated products in the market that customers need, right? You find a way to launch new products, you create your own growth.

麥克，謝謝你的提問。所以我們一直在思考我們的投資組合，也一直在思考我們未來想要發展的方向。我想強調的是，我們十多年來一直奉行的核心策略——成為一家以創新為中心的公司——絕對是正確的策略，尤其是在應對當前所有混亂局面時。你之所以能捍衛價值和市場份額，是因為你在市場上擁有客戶需要的差異化產品，對嗎？你找到推出新產品的方法，你就能創造自己的成長。

So we fundamentally believe that strategy is the correct strategy, and we've now added on a much more aggressive cost management program to go with it, right? So it used to be pre-COVID, we had productivity that offset inflation. We're clearly going way beyond that now because we realize that we have to be more competitive in these market situations. So that concept, that strategy allows us to get our normalized EBITDA back towards what we talked about since the deep dive in November, and we're still operating on that strategy. But -- and portfolio has been important for us, right?

因此，我們從根本上相信該戰略是正確的戰略，現在我們還增加了一個更積極的成本管理計劃來配合它，對吧？所以，在新冠疫情之前，我們的生產力足以抵消通貨膨脹。我們現在顯然已經遠遠超越了這一點，因為我們意識到，在當前的市場狀況下，我們必須更具競爭力。因此，這一理念和策略使我們能夠將正常化的 EBITDA 恢復到自 11 月深入分析以來我們所討論的水平，我們仍在按照這一策略運作。但是——投資組合對我們來說一直都很重要，對吧？

We've shown a lot of discipline to sell parts of our portfolio when they didn't make sense like tires, adhesives, the Texas acetic acid plant. But if you go back even further, we demonstrated a willingness to really convert our portfolio to be specialty. So we sold off a huge amount of commodities, about $3.5 billion leading up to 2012. We then did a series of acquisitions that were quite large like Solutia, Taminco and some bolt-ons to really change the quality of our portfolio in a pretty dramatic fashion. So we know how to do M&A.

我們展現了很強的自律性，在出售部分不合適的資產組合時，例如輪胎、黏合劑、德州醋酸廠等，就果斷出售。但如果再往前追溯，我們會發現我們已經展現出將產品組合真正轉變為專業領域的意願。因此，我們在 2012 年之前就拋售了大量大宗商品，價值約 35 億美元。然後我們進行了一系列相當大的收購，例如 Solutia、Taminco 以及一些補充收購，以相當大的方式改變了我們投資組合的品質。所以我們知道如何進行併購。

We know how to do integrations. We know how to buy assets at a rational price. So we're always thinking about these kind of opportunities. Without a doubt, the industry is going to be going through a lot of significant change right now. with all that you see going on across the peer set. So of course, we are thinking about how our portfolio should evolve in this context. But I mean, we're not going to say more than that.

我們知道如何進行整合。我們知道如何以合理的價格購買資產。所以我們一直在考慮這類機會。毫無疑問，鑑於同行們正在發生的一切，整個行業目前正經歷著許多重大變革。所以，我們當然會考慮在這種背景下我們的投資組合應該如何發展。但我的意思是，我們不會透露更多了。

Yes. And then in terms of the -- a quick follow-up, when you think about the normalized EBITDA, you talked about a year ago, a little over $2 billion or so. Is it less volume to get there now given your cost savings? Is there any major changes to the walk? Or is it still fairly similar? I mean we need some volume to get there?

是的。然後，關於——一個快速的後續問題，當你想到一年前你提到的正常化 EBITDA 時，大約是 20 億美元多一點。考慮到成本節約，現在到達目的地所需的數量是否減少了？步行路線會有重大變化嗎？或者說，情況還是相當相似？我的意思是，我們需要一定的銷售量才能達到目標？

Well, I think that without a doubt, volume is the story and the challenge that we've had since 2022, and we need volumes to stabilize. We just need the economy to stabilize and volume to get a bit better. In that context, innovation accelerates when customers are confident and think there's a stable environment. They want to launch new products. They try and gain share and win.

嗯，我認為毫無疑問，銷售量是我們自 2022 年以來面臨的主要問題和挑戰，我們需要銷售量趨於穩定。我們只需要經濟企穩，銷量也稍微好轉一些。在這種情況下，當客戶充滿信心並認為環境穩定時，創新就會加速。他們想推出新產品。他們試圖搶佔市場份額並贏得勝利。

So volume, not just from the market, but from innovation accelerates. The cost reductions that we're doing that Willie just start significant and lower our cost structure in a material way, a lot of that is being masked this year because of the $100 million sequential headwind of utilization that we've encountered in managing our inventory because the world didn't grow as expected. And so you can't really see the cost benefits this year. But as you move into next year with the volumes, if we're in a scenario where volumes are stable to this year, economy is stable, you get the acceleration of all that cost cutting as well as that utilization tailwind kicking in. So you do get a benefit from volume, but you also get a benefit from leveraging a much more competitive cost structure.

因此，銷售不僅來自市場，也來自創新，都在加速成長。威利正在實施的成本削減措施意義重大，從根本上降低了我們的成本結構，但今年由於全球經濟成長不如預期，我們在庫存管理方面遇到了 1 億美元的環比逆風，這些削減措施的效果被掩蓋了。所以今年你真的看不到成本效益。但展望明年，如果銷量與今年持平，經濟也保持穩定，那麼所有成本削減措施以及利用率提升的利好因素都將加速發揮作用。所以，大量生產固然有利，但利用更具競爭力的成本結構也能帶來好處。

And it's important to keep in mind that a lot of that headwind that we've encountered with volume this year because we are -- had these large sites like Tennessee that has a lot of vertical integration and fixed cost, it's painful when the volume goes down like you've seen -- it's also extremely attractive when the volume comes back, the incremental margins will be very attractive.

需要注意的是，我們今年在銷量方面遇到的許多不利因素，是因為我們擁有像田納西州這樣的大型站點，這些站點垂直整合程度很高，固定成本也很高，所以當銷量像你們看到的那樣下降時，會很痛苦——但當銷量回升時，也會非常有吸引力，因為增量利潤將非常可觀。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

Arun Viswanathan，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Most of my questions have been answered. I guess I just wanted to -- maybe you could elaborate on some of the choices you're making between giving up some maybe lower value business and the market share losses and what that kind of means for the future as you look into 2026? Does that set you up for maybe some improved margin performance? Or how should we think about that?

我的大部分問題都已得到解答。我想問的是——您能否詳細說明一下，您在放棄一些價值可能較低的業務和市場份額損失之間所做的選擇，以及展望 2026 年，這些選擇對未來意味著什麼？這是否有助於提高您的利潤率表現？我們該如何看待這個問題？

So we're always optimizing our asset base. This has been a core part of our strategy since we started on this, right? If you think about just the simple idea that Eastman made PET, it got competitive, we moved into a whole set of co-polyesters that we made with some proprietary monomers that upgraded that value, then we came out with Tritan, which really upgraded the value in a very proprietary product and how it's been so successful. On the same PET assets, that we started with, in fact, the Tritan line we're adding right now, that 80,000 lines the first PET line, we've added in decades because we're constantly valuing up the asset bases we have. Same is true in interlayers, whether it's a standard interlayer to one that has acoustic, that the one that has HUD, et cetera.

因此，我們一直在優化我們的資產基礎。從我們開始這項工作以來，這一直是我們策略的核心部分，對吧？如果你想想伊士曼公司生產PET的簡單過程，它變得具有競爭力，我們轉向生產一系列共聚酯，這些共聚酯使用一些專有單體來提升其價值，然後我們推出了Tritan，這真正提升了一種專有產品的價值，並且它取得了巨大的成功。事實上，在我們最初擁有的那些PET資產上，我們現在正在增加的Tritan生產線，這條80,000條生產線是我們幾十年來新增的第一條PET生產線，因為我們一直在提高我們擁有的資產基礎的價值。夾層也是如此，無論是標準夾層或具有聲學功能的夾層，亦或是具有 HUD 功能的夾層等等。

So this idea of optimizing our asset base to drive returns and move to higher ground is embedded in our strategy forever. So there's always choices you're making where you look at some of the lower value products and replacing them with higher-value products and upgrading mix. We have lots of charts we've shown you in the past Investor Days on how that's worked. And we're always doing that. But right now, with the market being soft, the other value of some low-value applications is asset utilization and running the assets full.

因此，優化資產基礎以推動回報並邁向更高境界的理念已永遠融入我們的策略之中。所以你總是要做選擇，例如檢視一些價值較低的產品，用價值較高的產品取代它們，從而升級產品組合。我們在過去的投資者日活動中向大家展示了許多圖表，說明了這種方法是如何運作的。我們一直都在這樣做。但目前市場疲軟，一些低價值應用的另一個價值在於資產利用率和資產滿載運轉。

So you want to make sure you're always keeping that balance in place. And with all the drama we've been through in the end markets, we've freed up some capacity just because demand is off and so we're trying to reassert and add some of the lower-value applications back into the mix to drive asset utilization. Then as the economy recovers, we'll value up that mix again like we always do.

所以你要確保始終保持這種平衡。由於終端市場經歷了種種波折，我們釋放了一些產能，因為需求下降了，所以我們正試圖重新確立並增加一些低價值應用，以提高資產利用率。然後，隨著經濟復甦，我們會像往常一樣再次提高這種投資組合的價值。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

約翰·羅伯茨，瑞穗銀行。

In PET bottles, do you expect Renew to be used in a consistent way? Or is it going to be maybe blended at different levels? And do you expect any differentiated marketing around Renew in bottles?

在PET瓶中，您認為Renew的使用方式是否一致？或者，它們可能會以不同的層次進行混合？您是否預期Renew系列產品在瓶裝方面會有任何差異化行銷策略？

We do, John. I think different brands, both on the specialty side, by the way, as well as on rPET packaging, are making different choices about what percentage of recycled content they want to put in a bottle and it be 50% recycled content. In some places, it can be 100 in another place. It ties to what they want to do on marketing on the label and it ties to what they want to do in achieving corporate goals of recycled content for the company overall versus what they put on a package. So it's a full spectrum out there on how companies are doing that.

約翰，我們確實有。我認為不同的品牌，包括特殊品牌和 rPET 包裝品牌，在瓶子中填充的再生材料比例方面都有不同的選擇，有的甚至達到 50% 再生材料。在某些地方，這個數字可能是 100，而在另一個地方則可能是 100。這與他們在標籤上的行銷策略有關，也與他們希望實現公司整體的再生材料使用目標有關，而不是與他們在包裝上印製什麼有關。所以，各公司採取這種做法的方式多種多樣。

We provide -- because of the way we can flex our assets, we can put whatever level of recycled content they want into the product very seamlessly. So we flex to whatever is most valuable to the consumers, and we have good prices for different levels of value.

我們提供—因為我們可以靈活運用我們的資源，我們可以非常無縫地將他們想要的任何比例的再生材料添加到產品中。因此，我們會靈活調整，以滿足消費者最迫切的需求，並為不同價值水平的產品提供優惠的價格。

Is there an average level in your plan?

你們的計劃中有平均嗎？

I would say that at the moment, our expectation is when you look at the specialties in the rPET combined together, it's probably going to be around 50% for a while. You'll have products that are going 100%. You'll have some that are 50%. And then you have products that, in some cases, might be lower. But somewhere on average, I'd say, when you look at somewhere in the 50% to 75% range is sort of where the recycled content will land.

我認為，目前我們預計，如果把 rPET 的各個專科加起來看，這個比例可能會在一段時間內保持在 50% 左右。你會有一些產品銷售達到100%。有些是 50%。然後，有些產品的價格可能會更低。但平均而言，我認為，回收成分的比例大概會在 50% 到 75% 之間。

But it's really evolving. What I expect to see happen is people go with a lower level of recycled content when the economy is as stressed as it is because there's a premium they're paying for it, but they want to make progress on their goals. They want to demonstrate commitment to the consumers. And then as the economy stabilizes, they'll start ramping up to a higher level of recycled content when they have better economics to afford it.

但它確實在不斷發展變化。我預計在經濟如此緊張的情況下，人們會選擇再生材料含量較低的產品，因為他們需要為此支付溢價，但他們仍然希望在實現目標方面取得進展。他們想藉此展現對消費者的承諾。然後，隨著經濟趨於穩定，當他們的經濟狀況好轉，能夠負擔得起時，他們就會開始逐步提高再生材料的比例。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

達菲費雪，高盛集團。

We've had a number of announcements from your Ag chem customers about difficulties you're having in the market, a number of consultants are talking about pretty big structural changes there with the Chinese pushing harder into those markets. When you look through the view of your intermediates chemicals into the ag chem industry, do you think you have the right position? Or do you see changes which are going to affect you and cause you to have to change your business model there?

我們已經收到貴公司農化客戶的一些公告，反映貴公司在市場上遇到的困難；許多顧問也談到，隨著中國企業加強進軍這些市場，市場將發生相當大的結構性變化。從中間體化學品的角度來看農業化學產業，你認為你的定位正確嗎？或者，您是否預見到某些變化將會影響到您，並導致您不得不改變那裡的商業模式？

Yes. We're very fortunate to have a very strong relationship with a lot of the top ag companies. And the vast majority of our business is in North America where we make these intermediates and they're sold here. We're also very fortunate to be aligned with winners in the marketplace like Corteva when we're providing the sort of key ingredients of the Enlist products. So we're in a better position because we're just not as exposed to all the competition and battle that's going on in South America, which I think is what you're probably getting at, and the tariffs, of course, to get in the US are sort of helping manage some of the pressure here. So I think we feel relatively good. We're not having any conversations with our customers at this point, at least on where they're concerned about their position in North America.

是的。我們非常幸運，與許多頂尖的農業公司建立了非常牢固的合作關係。我們的大部分業務都在北美，我們在那裡生產這些中間體，然後在這裡銷售。我們非常幸運能夠與像 Corteva 這樣的市場贏家合作，為 Enlist 產品提供關鍵成分。所以我們現在處境更好，因為我們不像南美洲那樣受到激烈的競爭和鬥爭的影響，我想這可能是你想表達的意思。當然，進入美國的關稅也在一定程度上緩解了我們這裡的一些壓力。所以我覺得我們感覺還不錯。目前我們還沒有與客戶進行任何對話，至少沒有討論他們對自身在北美市場地位的擔憂。

Great. And then as you've seen some weakness in your downstream tow business and the textiles business, does that mean you're going to run your kind of acetyls chain at lower operating rates? Or will you have to push into more acetyls derivatives upstream from those markets?

偉大的。那麼，鑑於您下游的絲束業務和紡織業務出現了一些疲軟，這是否意味著您將以較低的營運率來經營您的乙醯化產業鏈？或者，您需要從這些市場的上游轉向更多的乙醯基衍生物？

That is the beauty of having an innovation-driven company. So a long time ago, we knew that demand would not be forever there for tow. We've been lucky that it's declined at a relatively slow rate. But we've been building a whole innovation portfolio, as we discussed at the deep dive last November around how to take cellulosic polymer into a wide range of new applications, right? So textiles was one of those applications, which was doing its job to sort of offset that.

這就是創新驅動型公司的優勢所在。所以很久以前我們就知道，拖車服務的需求不會永遠存在。我們很幸運，它的下降速度相對較慢。但是，正如我們在去年 11 月的深度研討會上討論的那樣，我們一直在建立一個完整的創新組合，探討如何將纖維素聚合物應用於各種新的領域，對吧？所以紡織品就是其中一個應用，它就起到了一定的抵銷作用。

So as I said earlier, but the Aventa program is still having great progress going forward. This is the foamed cellulose polymer that can replace expanded polystyrene food trays, go into straws, et cetera, and all these food service areas where you can't really do recycling because of the way the product is contaminated and completely biodegrade. So we have a lot of growth opportunity in huge markets in Aventathat we can serve, and we've got some great IP positions around some of those products. And we also have some specialties that are very high-value microbeads that are made out of nylon acrylic being replaced by a biodegradable cellulosic for cosmetic formulations. We can replace polyethylene coating on paper cups and paper wrappers around candy bars, whatever, the biodegradable polymers.

正如我之前所說，Aventa 專案目前仍在穩步推進。這是一種發泡纖維素聚合物，可以取代膨脹聚苯乙烯食品托盤，用於製造吸管等，以及所有食品服務領域，在這些領域，由於產品的污染方式，你無法真正進行回收利用，而且它完全可生物降解。因此，我們在 Aventa 擁有巨大的市場成長機會，我們可以為這些市場提供服務，而且我們在其中一些產品方面擁有一些很棒的智慧財產權。我們還有一些特殊產品，是價值極高的微珠，由尼龍丙烯酸製成，用可生物降解的纖維素代替，用於化妝品配方。我們可以用可生物降解的聚合物來取代紙杯上的聚乙烯塗層和糖果包裝紙等等。

So our whole portfolio is in action. Obviously, the volumes are still relatively low and building, but we have great traction with our customers. So that's how you drive overall company stream utilization because the stream has always gone into specialties in AM and AFP as well as tow and generate a lot of value in those segments. And we're going to keep growing and expanding through those to keep the whole stream vital.

所以我們的整個投資組合都在發揮作用。顯然，銷量仍然相對較低，而且還在成長，但我們與客戶的互動非常熱烈。所以，這就是推動公司整體資源利用率的方法，因為資源一直以來都流向了 AM 和 AFP 等專業領域以及拖車領域，並在這些領域創造了大量價值。我們將繼續透過這些方式發展壯大，以維持整個產業的活力。

Let's make the next question the last one, please.

請把下一個問題當作最後一個問題。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞集團。

Just very quickly, can you give a sense for how much of a shift is happening in terms of reshoring of appliance capacity in the US, maybe as a possible catalyst for '27 and '28. I'm just thinking about the GE Louisville announcement and things like that. And secondly, with the Chinese five-year plan is your initial read on the kind of first draft being circulated, that it's a net positive because they need -- they're emphasizing innovation in more formulated products. Or is it a negative in the sense that they're emphasizing profit sharing to encourage and incentivize consumption, so lower return on capital for the chemical industry there and everything that entails?

請您簡單介紹一下，美國家電產能回流的趨勢有多大，這或許會成為 2027 年和 2028 年的催化劑。我只是在想通用電氣路易斯維爾工廠的公告之類的事情。其次，從中國五年計畫的初步草案來看，總體而言是正面的，因為他們需要——他們強調在配方產品方面進行創新。或者說，從某種意義上說，這是負面的，因為他們強調利潤分享以鼓勵和激勵消費，從而降低了當地化工行業的資本回報率以及由此產生的一切後果？

So on the reshoring question, I think that you will see people reshoring to the US, and we'll see the benefit of that. There are companies that have been leaders in doing that, like Whirlpool and Newell. And I think after all this pre-bought inventory that happened in the first half gets exhausted, they'll see benefits to their position in the US, and we'll see more of that. If USMCA gets preserved. I think you'll see it not just in the US, but also in places like Mexico, where that will continue to be built as well as people still moving to other places like Southeast Asia where the tariffs are still quite a bit lower than doing it in China these days.

所以關於製造業回流的問題，我認為你會看到人們把生產遷回美國，我們也會看到這樣做的好處。在這方面，有一些公司處於領先地位，例如惠而浦和紐威。我認為，在上半年預購的庫存全部消耗殆盡之後，他們將會看到其在美國的地位得到提升，我們也會看到更多這樣的情況。如果美墨加協定得以保留。我認為你不僅會在美國看到這種情況，也會在墨西哥等地看到這種情況，這些地方會繼續建設這類設施，同時人們也會繼續遷往東南亞等其他地方，因為如今那裡的關稅仍然比在中國低得多。

So we're following our customers wherever they go. But it takes awhile to build plants. It doesn't happen overnight. So we'll see how that plays out over time. Regarding the latest Chinese five-year plan, I have to admit I'm not an expert on that plan.

所以無論客戶走到哪裡，我們都會跟著他們。但植物生長需要時間。這並非一朝一夕就能完成的。所以，我們拭目以待，看看事態會如何發展。關於中國最新的五年規劃，我必須承認我並非這方面的專家。

So I don't want to get into territory of details. I don't really know. What I would say is, from what we see in the China market is uniquely challenged as part of the global challenge where they don't have consumer demand growing very much there because of the stress of the collapse of the housing market. and they're adding a lot of manufacturing capacity and aggressively exploring it. And that's creating strain in the country and it's also creating a strain around the world, which is leading to these tariffs that you start seeing happen not just here, but you're going to see them in other countries.

所以我不想深入細節。我真的不知道。我想說的是，從我們目前對中國市場的觀察來看，中國市場面臨獨特的挑戰，這是全球挑戰的一部分。由於房地產市場崩盤帶來的壓力，中國的消費需求成長並不強勁。因此，中國正在大幅增加製造業產能，並積極探索新的領域。這給國內帶來了壓力，也給世界帶來了壓力，導致了關稅的出現，你不僅在這裡會看到這種情況，而且在其他國家也會看到這種情況。

So I think the China government has got a lot of complexity to manage there, and their excess capacity is not helping their local economy or the world economy. And hopefully, some of the actions they're talking about to sort of rationalize capacity to be more appropriate that they actually do, but we're just going to have to wait and see what they do on that front. And hopefully, they stimulate some consumer demand in China, which would certainly help their economy a lot.

所以我認為中國政府需要處理很多複雜的問題，而他們的過剩產能既不利於本國經濟，也不利於世界經濟。希望他們所說的某些產能合理化的措施能夠真正發揮作用，但我們只能拭目以待，看看他們在這方面會採取什麼行動。希望它們能刺激中國的消費需求，這肯定會對中國經濟大有裨益。

Thanks again, everyone, for joining us. We appreciate you taking time with us. And I hope that you have a great day and a great rest of your week. Thanks again.

再次感謝大家的參與。感謝您抽空與我們交流。祝您今天過得愉快，也祝福您本週餘下的日子一切順利。再次感謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。