伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone and welcome to the fourth quarter and full year 2025 Eastman conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website at www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼公司2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議。今天的會議正在錄影。本次通話正在伊士曼公司網站 www.eastman.com 上進行現場直播。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle, Eastman Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把電話轉交給伊士曼投資者關係部的格雷格·里德爾先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Becky, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Senior Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝你，貝基，大家早安，謝謝各位的參與。今天與我一起通話的有：董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔；執行副總裁兼首席財務官威利·麥克萊恩；以及投資者關係高級經理傑克·拉羅。

Yesterday after market closed, we posted our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investor Section of our website, eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，我們在公司網站 eastman.com 的投資者關係部分發布了 2025 年第四季度和全年財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件、幻燈片以及相關的準備好的發言稿。

Before we begin, I'll cover two items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially.

在開始之前，我先介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演講中，您將聽到一些關於我們計劃和預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能與此有重大差異。

Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results news release, during this call, in the preceding slides, and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for a full year 2024 and the Form 10-K to be filed for a full year 2025.

與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在我們的 2025 年第四季度和全年財務業績新聞稿、本次電話會議、前面的幻燈片、準備好的發言稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括已提交的 2024 年全年 10-K 表格和即將提交的 2025 年全年 10-K 表格。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain non-core and unusual items, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items are available in the fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results news release.

其次，本簡報中提及的收益不包括某些非核心和不尋常的項目，與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調節表以及其他相關披露，包括對排除和調整項目的描述，可在 2024 年第四季度和全年財務業績新聞稿中找到。

As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we will now go straight into Q&A. Becky, please, let's start with our first question.

昨晚我們已將投影片和準備好的演講稿發佈在我們的網站上，現在我們將直接進入問答環節。貝基，我們先從第一個問題開始。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

I wanted to ask two things on Fibers here to start. First, can you talk a bit more about the actions you're taking, how the shutdown impacts earnings through the year? And second, if you could talk about cellulosic a little bit and your ability to pass through costs there if prices go up due to changes in supply behavior.

首先，我想問兩個關於纖維的問題。首先，您能否詳細介紹您正在採取的措施，以及停工對全年收益的影響？其次，如果您能稍微談談纖維素，以及如果由於供應行為的變化導致價格上漲，您如何將成本轉嫁出去。

Sure. Josh. So Fibers obviously is a top priority for us as we've been focusing on how we manage that business and stabilize it after what happened last year. Before I get into some of the actions we're taking in context of matters, and so I'm going to just remind you something we said before, where tow is certainly the largest driver in the drop in the volume and we held prices actually relatively well in spreads last year.

當然。喬許。因此，纖維業務​​顯然是我們的首要任務，因為我們一直專注於如何管理這項業務，並在去年發生的事情之後使其穩定下來。在我深入探討我們正在採取的一些措施之前，我想提醒大家我們之前說過的一點，拖車費用無疑是導致銷量下降的最大因素，而去年我們在價差方面實際上保持了相對良好的價格水平。

But that -- about 40% of the EBIT drop is actually not tow, right? So you've got about a $30 million decline that was tariff-driven in the textile business. While normally that's growing to offset market decline in tow and said it reversed in the negative direction with all the tariff pressure and consumer pressure.

但是，息稅前利潤下降約 40% 實際上並不是拖欠的，對吧？因此，紡織品業因關稅而減少了約 3000 萬美元。雖然通常情況下，這種成長是為了抵消市場下滑的影響，但由於關稅壓力和消費者壓力，這種成長卻朝著負面方向逆轉了。

The second was the overall stream slowed down because of reduced demand across the company using cellulosic and that was about a $20 million headwind. And utilization and energy costs for about $15 million higher. So there are multiple levers tow plus everything else in this portfolio that matter.

第二點是，由於公司對纖維素的需求減少，整體生產速度放緩，這造成了約 2000 萬美元的損失。利用率和能源成本增加了約 1500 萬美元。所以除了投資組合中其他所有重要因素之外，還有多種槓桿因素需要考慮。

When it comes to the tow side of things, we feel good that we've stabilized the volume situation this year relative to last year in our contracts with our customers. It did include a bit of a modest price decline to make that happen. And what that price decline really is about is, there were some customers that had higher prices in the marketplace, and they pulled in to be more in line with the broader market into where we are today.

就拖車業務而言，我們很高興今年與客戶簽訂的合約中，拖車業務量相對於去年已經趨於穩定。為了實現這一點，價格確實略有下降。價格下降的真正原因是，有些客戶原本在市場上定價較高，但他們為了與更廣泛的市場保持一致，也調整了價格，最終形成了我們今天所看到的局面。

So stable and the volume we're assuming when we say stable is assuming our customers are at their contract minimums because we do expect destocking will continue through this year like it did last year. As a reminder, we have contracts last year, too and we started the year thinking people will be buying in their normal range of the contract. And then as we told you through the year, they moved to their contract minimums, but we held them to that.

因此，我們所說的穩定性是指客戶達到合約規定的最低訂購量，因為我們預計今年的去庫存情況會像去年一樣持續下去。提醒一下，我們去年也有合同，年初的時候我們認為人們會按照合約規定的正常範圍進行購買。正如我們今年一直告訴你們的那樣，他們的薪水降到了合約規定的最低水平，但我們堅持讓他們遵守這個標準。

That's why they have to continue destocking this year to get to where they want to be. And so -- and Q1 is starting out a little bit light. The contract commitments are annual contracts, but they have some ratability flexibility around the quarters, and we expect the first quarter start off a little soft, hence our guidance and then they will ramp up as you go through the year.

所以他們今年必須繼續減少庫存，才能達到目標。所以——第一季開局有點疲軟。合約承諾是年度合同，但按季度有一定的調整靈活性，我們預計第一季度開局會比較疲軟，因此我們給出了這樣的預期，然後隨著時間的推移，業績會逐步提升。

And normally, the back half is a little bit stronger anyway as they load channels ahead of the tax increases that normally happen every January. So we feel good about that.

而且通常情況下，下半年的業績會稍微好一些，因為他們會在每年一月份稅收增加之前提前投放廣告。所以我們對此感到很滿意。

Obviously, there are a bunch of actions in addition to stabilizing that business directly that we're taking. So the cost reduction actions across the company, that significant cost reduction goal that we have this in the $125 million to $150 million range to build on $100 million last year, a decent portion of that goes towards Fibers with some of the actions we're taking specifically on how to optimize how we operate our assets more efficiently.

顯然，除了直接穩定該業務之外，我們還採取了一系列其他措施。因此，公司正在採取成本削減措施，我們設定了1.25億至1.5億美元的重大成本削減目標，以去年的1億美元為基礎，其中相當一部分將用於光纖業務，我們正在採取一些措施，專門優化我們資產的營運效率。

The growth in textiles, we're seeing growth start to come back slowly, but it's coming back. We expect that to build through the year. We are expanding our efforts. So today, we've mostly focused on selling Naia filament, which is a very high-value product in the textile market. There is another product which is Staples, short fibers that you use. It's a more economic product. It typically goes into things like denim and fleece and it's a huge market.

紡織業的成長，我們看到成長開始緩慢恢復，但它正在恢復。我們預計這種情況會在今年內持續好轉。我們正在擴大工作範圍。所以今天，我們主要專注於銷售 Naia 長絲，這在紡織市場是一種非常高價值的產品。還有一種產品叫做短纖維，你可以使用它。這是一款更經濟實惠的產品。它通常用於牛仔布和抓絨等產品，市場巨大。

And so the margins are not as good, but they're still reasonably attractive. And so we're ramping up our effort, already got sales for this year, and we're going to try and ramp that up as another way to drive asset utilization.

因此，利潤率雖然不如以前那麼高，但仍然相當有吸引力。因此，我們正在加大力度，今年已經實現了銷售目標，我們將努力提高銷售額，以此作為提高資產利用率的另一種方式。

And then on the broader stream question around cellulosics. We have the Aventa product, currently lives in corporate other, but that product is moving forward. We're going through a lot of product qualifications last year, and we expect volumes to build this year, especially in food trays and cutlery and straws. And so that will drive stream utilization as well.

然後是關於纖維素這一更廣泛的問題。我們有 Aventa 產品，目前屬於企業其他部門，但該產品正在向前發展。去年我們進行了許多產品認證，我們預計今年的銷售量將會成長，尤其是在食品托盤、餐具和吸管方面。因此，這也將推動串流媒體利用率的提高。

So a lot of different actions that we're taking. They will build through the year. So how we get to the number this year and stabilize it, will sort of build through the year so we build on all the different actions we're taking.

所以我們正在採取很多不同的行動。他們將在這一年中進行建設。所以，我們如何在今年達到並穩定這個數字，將是一個循序漸進的過程，我們將在這一年中逐步推進，並在我們採取的各種不同行動的基礎上不斷努力。

When it comes to price on the tow business, most -- some of the prices do have CPTs in them and allow for adjustment for changes in raw material and energy costs. So a number of those contracts will adjust, a few won't and the textile prices are market-based. So we can raise prices.

就拖車業務的價格而言，大多數（有些）價格都包含 CPT，並允許根據原材料和能源成本的變化進行調整。因此，其中一些合約會進行調整，少數不會，紡織品價格是市場決定的。所以我們可以提高價格。

But in this weak environment, I would not assume we're raising prices a lot outside of the CPTs managing some of the headwind. So that's sort of where we're at. We're pulling every lever we've got. This is incredibly important source of earnings and even more important source of cash flow, and we take this business very seriously in what we're going to do.

但在這種疲軟的環境下，除了 CPT 應對一些不利因素外，我不會認為我們會大幅提價。這就是我們目前的狀況。我們正在竭盡全力。這是極其重要的收入來源，更是重要的現金流來源，我們將非常認真地對待這項業務，並認真對待我們將要做的事情。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Mark, looking at Chemical Intermediates, are there other actions or options you're looking at to reduce the earnings volatility of this business?

馬克，就化學中間體業務而言，你是否正在考慮其他措施或方案來降低該業務的獲利波動性？

Absolutely, David. And first of all, the biggest action we're taking, we've already told you about, which is the E2P project. So we have a project to take our bulk ethylene, which is the biggest driver of earnings challenge in the segment, given how that ethylene market is challenged. And that's not a new topic. It's been a topic for us for a long time.

當然，大衛。首先，我們正在採取的最大行動，我們已經告訴你們了，那就是 E2P 專案。因此，我們有一個項目，旨在利用我們的大宗乙烯，鑑於乙烯市場面臨的挑戰，大宗乙烯是該領域獲利挑戰的最大驅動因素。這並非一個新話題。這個問題我們討論很久了。

We have a project where we can take the ethylene and turn it into propylene and that dramatically improves the earnings in the segments. It allows us to not sell bulk ethylene, allows us to replace higher cost purchased propane -- I'm sorry, propylene and so we improve a loss as well as reduce and eliminate the loss on the bulk ethylene, and we also improved the margins on the propylene side of the equation at the same time.

我們有一個項目，可以將乙烯轉化為丙烯，這將大大提高相關業務部門的收益。這樣一來，我們就無需銷售散裝乙烯，可以替代成本更高的丙烷——抱歉，是丙烯，從而改善散裝乙烯的虧損，同時減少並消除其虧損，並且我們還提高了丙烯方面的利潤率。

So that's worth, if you look at all the different ranges and scenarios of how the industry spreads can change, it's similar to $50 million to $100 million improvement in earnings and the payback on that is less than two years from a capital point of view. So that project we're driving forward as one that will definitely structurally improve the business.

所以，如果你看看產業價差可能變化的各種不同範圍和情景，你會發現這相當於獲利提高 5,000 萬到 1 億美元，而從資本角度來看，投資回報期不到兩年。所以我們正在推進的這個項目，一定會從結構上改善業務。

When it comes to how the business also, it thrives and improves, frankly, is there's a cyclical nature of this, which is more demand-driven in the business. So the North American market is much more profitable than the export market, especially with all the Chinese dumping going on that's really impacting the market outside the US. The tariffs are helping to some degree, protect the North American markets.

至於企業如何蓬勃發展和進步，坦白說，這具有周期性，而且更多是由企業的需求所驅動的。因此，北美市場比出口市場利潤更高，尤其是在中國傾銷商品嚴重影響美國以外市場的情況下。關稅在一定程度上幫助保護了北美市場。

So as demand comes back within the segment in North America and building construction durables, et cetera, that's a big mix upgrade. Also remember, more than half of the product we make in this segment goes into our specialty. So as demand recovers there, you're replacing very low-value exports on the margin with much higher value specialty sales. So that also helps improve the stability in the earnings when we get back to a more normal demand situation in the core CI business.

因此，隨著北美和建築施工耐久財等領域的需求回升，產品組合將迎來重大升級。另外，請記住，我們在這個領域生產的產品中，超過一半都用於我們的特色產品。因此，隨著當地需求的復甦，你正在用價值更高的特色產品銷售來取代價值很低的邊際出口。這樣也有助於提高核心CI業務在需求恢復正常時獲利的穩定性。

Of course, there's the broader question around the overall market and how it gets better with the current pricing and a lot of the products out coming out of China right now, the cost models we have, they're at their variable cash costs. We don't know how long that's sustainable, that's certainly impacting high-cost assets around the world, especially in Europe, South Korea, Japan.

當然，還有一個更廣泛的問題，那就是整個市場，以及在當前定價和目前中國生產的許多產品的成本模型下，市場如何變得更好，這些產品的成本是可變現金成本。我們不知道這種情況能持續多久，但這無疑正在影響世界各地的高成本資產，尤其是在歐洲、韓國和日本。

So you see assets are going to get rationalized. I'm not about to guess what the time frame is on that relative to how China is adding capacity. But I do think the market structure around the world will continue to get better over the next few years. We're not banking on any of that this year, to be clear, with the uncertainty that's in the current market situation. But there are a lot of actions we're taking to improve this business in long term.

所以你看，資產將會進行合理化調整。我不會去猜測相對於中國產能成長速度而言，這需要多長時間。但我認為未來幾年全球市場結構將持續改善。需要明確的是，鑑於當前市場狀況的不確定性，我們今年並不指望這些。但我們正在採取許多措施來從長遠角度改善這項業務。

No, very helpful. And just on Q1, can you help us with the bridge versus the prior year to get to that decline you're forecasting on an EPS basis?

不，非常有幫助。就第一季而言，您能否幫我們分析一下與去年同期相比，如何達到您預測的每股盈餘下降幅度？

Could you repeat that question again? You were just broken up a little bit.

您能再重複一次這個問題嗎？你當時只是有點失戀了。

Can you help us with an earnings -- an EPS bridge from Q1 last year to Q1 this year for that decline that you are forecasting?

您能否提供一份獲利預測表－從去年第一季到今年第一季的每股盈餘（EPS）過渡表，以反映您預測的下滑趨勢？

Year-over-year decline. I just want to make sure I understood the question correctly. So as we look at where we are today, obviously, we went on a journey through last year, right? Q1 was relatively strong, and then it evolved over time to where we finished Q4. In Q1, it's important to remember, as we told you on the third quarter call, that was actually a year-over-year growth scenario, right?

年比下降。我只是想確認我是否正確理解了這個問題。所以，當我們回顧今天所處的位置時，很顯然，我們經歷了去年的一段旅程，對吧？第一季表現相對強勁，然後隨著時間的推移不斷發展，最終達到了第四季度的水平。在第一季度，需要記住的是，正如我們在第三季度電話會議上告訴大家的那樣，那實際上是同比增長的情況，對吧？

So the end markets and the consumer discretionary, for example, were up 2% to 4%. And so if we had that year, we would have had growth -- normal seasonality for the rest of the year we had growth for the year. So the evolution of the market after the April Liberation Day, causing markets to sort of go from being modestly up to down in meaningful ways, changed and altered the rest of the year. So Q1 is a tough comp because it was actually a growth quarter.

例如，終端市場和非必需消費品市場成長了 2% 至 4%。因此，如果我們有那一年，我們就會實現成長——在一年中的其他時間裡，我們會經歷正常的季節性成長。因此，四月解放日後市場的演變，導致市場從小幅上漲轉為大幅下跌，改變了這一年剩餘時間的趨勢。所以第一季比較起來比較困難，因為它實際上是一個成長季度。

Now where we are today, I think it's much more important to think about the progression of how we've gone through the year and how we come out of the back half of this year into Q1 and build from Q1 through this year. And so when I look at where we are now, we feel good about how Q1 is progressing. I think that we wanted to and are seeing a return in volume from fourth quarter to first quarter.

現在，我認為更重要的是思考我們今年的發展歷程，以及我們如何從今年下半年過渡到第一季度，並從第一季開始建立今年的發展。所以，當我審視我們目前的狀況時，我們對第一季的進展感到滿意。我認為我們想要看到銷量從第四季度回升到第一季度，而且我們也看到了這種回升。

So you're seeing strong improvement in volumes in AM with seasonality sort of coming back to some degree, although I'd say customers are still being cautious. We're definitely seeing the lack of destocking of pre-tariff inventory that we told you about in the third quarter call, which obviously was a big driver of the volume decline in Q4 relative to Q3, I think most of that's abated. So we're seeing good recovery in the volumes there, seeing good recovery in the volume seasonally in AFP, as you would normally expect.

所以，上午的銷售出現了強勁成長，季節性因素也在某種程度上有所恢復，儘管我認為顧客仍然比較謹慎。我們確實看到了我們在第三季度電話會議上提到的關稅前庫存去庫存不足的情況，這顯然是第四季度銷量相對於第三季度下降的主要原因，我認為這種情況大部分已經緩解了。所以我們看到，法新社的銷量正在穩步復甦，銷量也像往常一樣出現了良好的季節性復甦。

We've already talked about volume recovery being a bit modest in Fibers and we'll build through the rest of the year. And even CI is going to have volume recovery as a function of just less shutdowns, so more volume to sell as well as some of the seasonality and destocking that was pretty aggressive in CI abating.

我們之前已經討論過，光纖業務的銷售恢復速度會比較緩慢，我們將在今年餘下的時間裡逐步恢復。即使是CI，銷售量也會隨著停工減少、可售銷售增加以及CI之前較為激進的季節性因素和去庫存措施的緩解而恢復。

So overall, we feel like we've got a meaningful amount of volume recovery coming our way. I wouldn't -- it's by no means taking us back to last year, Dave, but it's making good progress from where we were in Q4.

所以總的來說，我們感覺銷量將會有顯著的回升。我不會這麼說——戴夫，這絕不意味著我們回到了去年的狀態，但與第四季度相比，我們取得了良好的進展。

On top of that, you've got utilization benefits that come with the volume and some of the cost benefits and actions we're taking that continue to build as we go from the fourth quarter to the first.

除此之外，隨著產量的增加，利用率也會提高，而且隨著我們從第四季度過渡到第一季度，我們正在採取的一些措施也會帶來成本效益，這些效益和措施將持續發揮作用。

There will be some offsets. Obviously, energy costs are higher even in a normal period before we get to the winter storms. We expected energy headwinds in our guidance. And we expect prices to be a bit off in CI with some contract resetting. And then Fibers, as we already told you, we'll have a modest decline in price.

會有一些偏差。顯然，即使在冬季風暴來臨之前的正常時期，能源成本也會更高。我們在業績預期中預料到了能源產業將面臨不利因素。我們預計CI的價格會有些偏差，因為一些合約會進行重置。至於纖維產品，正如我們之前告訴大家的，價格會小幅下降。

So when you put it all together, we feel good about that guidance and starting the road to recovery. But all the things we're doing that we've talked to you about build over time, right? The innovation builds over time, circular builds over time, cost reductions build over time. We're assuming we get back to normal seasonality, which will certainly help Q2 and Q3.

綜上所述，我們對這項指導感到滿意，並認為我們已經走上了康復之路。但是我們和你們談過的所有事情都需要時間才能見效，對吧？創新需要時間積累，循環經濟需要時間積累，成本降低需要時間累積。我們假設季節性規律能夠恢復正常，這肯定會對第二季和第三季有所幫助。

So while Q1 is not where we want to be relative to what we think is possible for the full year, we're really encouraged to see the strength of the recovery out of Q4, and we see a lot of levers on how we can build and improve and deliver a strong meaningful earnings growth for the year.

因此，雖然第一季的業績與我們認為全年可能達到的目標相比還有差距，但我們對第四季度強勁的復甦勢頭感到非常鼓舞，並且我們看到了很多可以提升業績、實現全年強勁且有意義的盈利增長的途徑。

Patrick Cunningham, Citigroup.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗集團。

This is Rachel Lee on for Patrick. So the earnings contribution from methanolysis seems to imply maybe less than 25% incremental margins on additional volumes this year. So is this the right way to think about incrementals for some of these noncore applications? Or is there any additional fixed cost or mix drag impacting 2026?

這裡是瑞秋李，替派崔克報道。因此，甲醇分解帶來的收益貢獻似乎意味著今年新增產量帶來的增量利潤率可能不到 25%。那麼，對於某些非核心應用程式來說，這種考慮增量更新的方式是否正確呢？或者，是否有任何額外的固定成本或混合阻力會影響到 2026 年？

Thanks for the question. What I would highlight is, obviously, as we think about the benefits of our circular solution for the packaging model as well as the combination of the specialties with Tritan Renew and the end markets that we're going to into those applications. To your point, Rachel, there's a, I'll call it, a spectrum of drop-through margins.

謝謝你的提問。我想重點強調的是，很顯然，當我們思考我們的循環解決方案對包裝模式的好處，以及將特種材料與 Tritan Renew 結合，並進入這些應用的終端市場時。瑞秋，你說得對，下拉邊距確實存在一個，我稱之為，一個連續光譜。

As we think about 2025 to 2026, volume growth is a key aspect of that, and we've highlighted that with the contracts that we have across a spectrum of key brands that we're growing with in the packaging space and that being the substantial driver.

展望 2025 年至 2026 年，銷售成長是其中的關鍵方面，我們已經強調了這一點，我們與眾多主要品牌簽訂的合約表明，我們在包裝領域正在發展壯大，而這正是重要的驅動力。

So as you think about that growth rate, what I would say is, for the fixed or I'll call it the -- the model that we've talked about for packaging, where we have volume commitments as well as cost pass-through, we believe that, that is reasonable outcomes and delivers the returns that we've been talking about.

所以，在考慮成長率時，我想說的是，對於固定的，或者我稱之為——我們討論過的包裝模式，我們有數量承諾以及成本轉嫁，我們認為，這是合理的結果，並能帶來我們一直在談論的回報。

What we will also have is upside to that as we have additional mix upgrade and sell into our specialty markets. And as we get momentum in the consumer discretionary markets over the long term to drive those returns that we've committed to previously in the circular economy.

此外，我們還將獲得額外的收益，因為我們可以進行產品組合升級，並向我們的特色市場銷售產品。隨著我們在非必需消費品市場獲得長期發展勢頭，我們將實現先前在循環經濟中承諾的回報。

Great. And I know you haven't guided to fiscal 2026 for the full year, but given your expected growth across AM, staple, and AFP. Can you help size your latest view on your price cost trends for your specialty businesses in 2026? And just one follow-up there, you often talk about defending your value of your products, but now it seems like you're giving some price back in AM. So I guess what's driving that?

偉大的。我知道您還沒有對 2026 財年全年業績做出預測，但鑑於您對 AM、必需品和 AFP 業務成長的預期。能否幫忙估算一下您對貴公司2026年專業業務價格成本趨勢的最新看法？還有一個後續問題，你經常談到捍衛你產品的價值，但現在看來你在 AM 中似乎做出了一些讓步。所以我想知道是什麼原因導致這種情況？

Sure. So it's -- there's a lot of that question, right? So I'm going to try and answer as best I can. Just to start off with around sort of how we look at 2026 and think about it, we're very clear that the macroeconomic scenario is highly uncertain. I think everyone is pretty much in the same bucket.

當然。所以——有很多這樣的問題，對吧？所以我會盡我所能回答這個問題。首先，關於我們如何看待和思考 2026 年，我們非常清楚宏觀經濟情勢具有高度不確定性。我認為大家的情況都差不多。

And so we're not trying to call the macro economy. The biggest driver of our company in earnings and performance and cash is volume. And that's been true for the last four years and it will be true for this year. But right now, we're assuming the markets and our planning scenario are relatively stable to last year. And then what are all the different things that we can do to drive value.

因此，我們並不是試圖預測宏觀經濟。推動公司獲利、業績和現金流成長的最大因素是銷量。過去四年情況如此，今年也將如此。但就目前而言，我們假設市場和我們的規劃方案與去年相比相對穩定。那麼，我們可以做哪些不同的事情來創造價值呢？

And so we start with the focus on cost reduction since that's immediately in our control. And as you've seen, we delivered $100 million, which was $25 million over our target. Last year, great momentum and that we think we can get another $125 million to $150 million on top of that. That's $225 million to $250 million in two years, which for our size of the company is pretty significant and really demonstrates our accountability to our shareholders with a great value in challenging times.

因此，我們首先專注於降低成本，因為這是我們能夠直接控制的。正如你所看到的，我們實現了 1 億美元的目標，比目標高出 2500 萬美元。去年勢頭強勁，我們認為今年還能再增加 1.25 億至 1.5 億美元。兩年內，這相當於 2.25 億美元到 2.5 億美元，對於我們這樣規模的公司來說，這筆收入相當可觀，也真正體現了我們在充滿挑戰的時期為股東創造的巨大價值和責任感。

But the biggest thing is around growth, right? So we have lower costs and a lot of that cost will flow into Advanced Materials, then it's how do we grow volume. And on the volume front, there are several things that we're doing thatare more in our control than waiting for the macro economy to get better.

但最重要的還是成長，對吧？因此，我們的成本降低了，而且許多成本將流入先進材料領域，接下來的問題是如何提高產量。至於銷售方面，我們正在採取一些措施，這些措施比等待宏觀經濟好轉更能被我們掌控。

First and foremost is always innovation to create growth above your underlying markets. The cellulosic -- I'm sorry, the circular economy in polyesters is a key example of that, that incremental $30 million of improvement over '25 is significant with a revenue growth of 4% to 5%. A lot of it being driven by the rPET customers that we talked about in the third quarter that are already ordering and ramping up with us in the quarter.

首先，創新始終是創造超越現有市場水準的成長的關鍵。纖維素—抱歉，聚酯的循環經濟就是一個關鍵的例子，與 2025 年相比，這 3000 萬美元的增量改進意義重大，收入增長了 4% 到 5%。其中很大一部分是由我們在第三季度討論過的 rPET 客戶推動的，他們已經在本季度向我們下訂單並擴大生產規模。

So we feel very good about that and building -- starting to build in Q1 will create more value as we go into the rest of the year. You've got the classic innovation in the films business with HUD in luxury cars and EVs growing around the world. You've got the EastaPure, ultra high-purity solvents in semiconductors in AFP.

因此我們對此感到非常樂觀，並且從第一季開始建設將在今年餘下的時間裡創造更多價值。電影產業的經典創新是抬頭顯示器（HUD）在豪華汽車和電動車領域的全球普及。AFP 擁有 EastaPure 超高純度半導體溶劑。

We have all the cellulosic growth I just talked about and how we're trying to drive growth in the Fibers business. We're also expanding our aperture and how we think about volume growth across the company, but especially in Advanced Materials and in Fibers is how do we target these applications that are outside of our normal core specialty businesses.

我們已經實現了我剛才提到的所有纖維素成長，我們正在努力推動纖維業務的成長。我們也在擴大視野，並思考公司整體的銷售成長方式，尤其是在先進材料和纖維領域，我們需要考慮如何瞄準這些超出我們正常核心專業業務範圍的應用。

You don't really want to aggressively go after market share in your high-value products because you just erode your value in those applications in a weak market, that's a bad choice. You want to win on your value proposition, you want to maintain your margin. So we're targeting areas where we can grow, that adds volume and utilization to the overall cost structure of the company.

在市場疲軟的情況下，你不應該積極地爭取高價值產品的市場份額，因為這只會削弱你在這些應用領域的價值，這是一個糟糕的選擇。你想憑藉價值主張贏得市場，你想維持利潤率。因此，我們瞄準的是能夠成長的領域，這可以增加公司整體成本結構的產量和利用率。

One we've already done, which is we gained some of our architectural interlayers where we lost some share last year. As I talked about, we're doing the staple product in fiber to drive growth. We have the Aventa. We also in polyester, just with the actions we're taking in our core business have a lot of volume growth already but there's still space to look for more volume.

我們已經做到了一件事，那就是我們重新獲得了去年失去的一些架構中間層市場份額。正如我剛才所說，我們正在生產纖維這種主打產品來推動成長。我們有Aventa。在聚酯纖維領域，我們僅憑在核心業務中採取的措施就已經實現了很大的銷售成長，但仍有提升銷售量的空間。

So we're expanding some efforts in some markets like heavy gauge sheet and shrink packaging, where the margins are not as high as Tritan, but they're still attractive and allow us to drive asset utilization.

因此，我們正在加大在一些市場的投入，例如厚規格板材和收縮包裝，雖然這些市場的利潤率不如 Tritan 高，但仍然很有吸引力，可以讓我們提高資產利用率。

So how do we really ramp up volume and utilization and leverage that cost reduction altogether. And the segment that will for sure benefit the most from these actions is in AM. Now to your question around prices, there are some price declines. We already mentioned Fibers and CI. In Advanced Materials, we do expect some modest decline in there too, as we share our raw material costs advantages.

那麼，我們該如何真正提高產量和利用率，並充分利用成本降低的優勢呢？而最能從這些措施中受益的群體肯定是上午時段的人群。現在回答你關於價格的問題，目前價格確實有所下降。我們已經提到了纖維和CI。在先進材料領域，我們也預計會出現一些小幅下滑，因為我們將原材料成本優勢分享出去。

We can't offset energy headwinds in this market condition and our competitors are outside the US, but we certainly have done a phenomenal job of managing our price relative to our costs over the last four years. But after you get it in four years of doing a great job, you have to start sharing some of that raw material benefit with your customers. And so we're doing that.

在這種市場環境下，我們無法抵消能源逆風的影響，而且我們的競爭對手都在美國境外，但在過去四年裡，我們在控制價格與成本方面確實做得非常出色。但是，經過四年的辛勤工作，當你累積了足夠的經驗之後，你必須開始與你的客戶分享這些原料帶來的好處。所以我們正在這樣做。

But in the context of the volume growth we're getting, the overall variable margin is increasing. So those are all the actions that we're taking to try and drive value and create very meaningful earnings growth for the year.

但就我們目前的銷售成長而言，整體可變利潤率正在提高。以上就是我們為創造價值、實現今年有意義的獲利成長所採取的所有措施。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

This is Turner Hinrichs on for Vincent Andrews. I'm just wondering if you could help with some of the bridge items for advanced materials ex methanolysis? I believe that you've commented that innovation reversal of the asset utilization headwind from last year and FX or tailwinds, while you should see some price cost headwinds. Curious if you could provide some more color or help put a finer point on what you might see on a year-over-year basis in that segment?

這是特納·欣里希斯替補文森特·安德魯斯上場。我想請問您是否可以幫忙解答一些關於高級材料（例如甲醇解）的橋樑問題？我相信您已經評論過，創新逆轉了去年資產利用率的不利因素以及外匯或順風，儘管您應該會看到一些價格成本的不利因素。我很想知道您能否提供更多細節，或者更具體地說明您在該領域看到的同比變化？

Yes. I think I just hit on a lot of it just in the last answer, but the great thing about Advanced Materials this year is it's got a lot of leverage to work with, right. So, to grow earnings this year relative to last year. The first and foremost is that volume growth, right? It's volume growth delivered by circular, which is one of the bigger drivers. It's finding volume growth in weak markets through our innovation and on the levers that we're trying to pull there.

是的。我覺得我在上一個回答中已經提到了很多，但今年先進材料的優勢在於它有很多可以利用的資源，對吧。因此，要實現今年獲利較去年有所成長。首要任務是銷售成長，對吧？循環經濟帶來的銷售成長是主要驅動力之一。我們透過創新以及我們正在嘗試採取的措施，在疲軟的市場中實現了銷售成長。

So you've got some core recovery and you got circular. On top of that, you have a good portion of the cost reduction flowing into AM that is part of that overall corporate program. You've got the largest amount of utilization headwind last year with the aggressive inventory actions we took in managing Advanced Materials. And so as these volumes come back, we start getting a meaningful tailwind on utilization in this segment. And then you do have some FX tailwinds and benefits as well.

所以你進行了一些核心恢復，然後就進入了循環。除此之外，大部分成本削減都流入了增材製造領域，這是整個公司計畫的一部分。去年，由於我們在先進材料管理方面採取了積極的庫存管理措施，你們面臨最大的利用率阻力。因此，隨著這些銷量的回升，我們開始在這個領域的利用率方面獲得顯著的利好。此外，外匯市場也存在一些利多因素和優點。

So when you put all those four levers together, they're quite material. Now there are some offsets like a bit of higher energy costs this year, that modest price decline I just mentioned, relative to the energy cost. And then you've got the -- I just forgot what the other part was, -- the other headwind is -- that's it. I don't think there's another headwind. Oh, variable comp. That was it, variable comp is the other headwind.

所以，當把這四個槓桿組合在一起時，它們就變得相當重要了。現在有一些抵銷因素，例如今年能源成本略高，而我剛才提到的價格小幅下降，相對於能源成本而言，是可以接受的。然後還有——我忘了​​另一部分是什麼了——另一個逆風是——就這些了。我認為不會再有其他逆風了。哦，可變壓縮。就是這樣，可變薪酬是另一個不利因素。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyCorp.

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyCorp。

Just looking at various bridge items you provided for this year was sort of crudely came up with about $5.50 to $6 in EPS. So I wonder if you could comment if that range is close to what you were thinking?

僅查看您今年提供的各種橋樑項目，粗略估計每股收益約為 5.50 美元至 6 美元。所以我想請教一下，這個範圍是否與您預想的範圍相符？

So I never imagine getting that question. So look, as I already said, the macro economy is incredibly complicated right now. There's a lot of uncertainty. In that context, we're taking a huge amount of actions that are in our control from costs to trying to create our own volume, leveraging asset utilization and certain things like FX, that's a tailwind. So there's a lot that helps.

所以我從來沒想過會有人問這個問題。所以你看，正如我之前所說，目前的宏觀經濟情勢極為複雜。存在許多不確定因素。在這種情況下，我們正在採取大量我們可控的措施，從成本控製到努力創造我們自己的交易量，利用資產利用率以及外匯等某些因素，這些都是有利因素。所以有很多因素會有幫助。

Clearly, there's a few headwinds. The rate at which CI recovers from last year and how we moderate and stabilize the Fibers business as well as things like variable comp going back to 1x. So when you put it all together, we've said there's a meaningful improvement in earnings that's possible.

顯然，我們面臨一些不利因素。CI 從去年的復甦速度，以及我們如何調節和穩定光纖業務，以及諸如可變薪酬恢復到 1 倍等事項。綜上所述，我們認為獲利能力有顯著提升的可能。

What I would say is when you think about the sort of upper end of what you're talking about around $6 a share, that's very much in the range of what we're thinking as possible. But I have to emphasize there's a wide range here around what could happen. And it is macroeconomic that we're talking about and where the uncertainty is.

我想說的是，當你考慮到你所說的每股 6 美元左右的上限時，這非常符合我們認為可能的股價範圍。但我必須強調，這裡可能發生的事情有很多。我們現在討論的是宏觀經濟問題，不確定性也正來自於此。

If you look at GDP and everyone's talking about how great GDP is and it's growth last year were expectations of this year. If you back out data centers, AI, health care, GDP is sort of flat. And the consumers, I think, has been well understood through last year, especially the 80% of our consumers out there are really struggling with the economic challenges they have and the affordability, the fear of what tariffs are going to do, fear about can I get a new job if I lose mine, et cetera.

如果你看看GDP，每個人都在談論GDP有多棒，去年的成長就是今年的預期。如果剔除資料中心、人工智慧和醫療保健等產業，GDP成長基本上持平。我認為，去年我們已經很好地了解了消費者，尤其是我們80%的消費者，他們真的在努力應對經濟挑戰和購買力問題，擔心關稅會帶來什麼影響，擔心如果失去工作能否找到新工作等等。

So there's a lot of caution out there that's been there for the year, all last year. I don't think it's materially changed. That's why we think the economy could be stable. But it's challenging out there. And there's any number of things, geopolitical works, et cetera, that could make things worse.

所以，今年以來，乃至去年，市場一直瀰漫著謹慎的氣氛。我認為情況並沒有實質變化。這就是我們認為經濟可能保持穩定的原因。但外面的世界充滿挑戰。還有許多因素，例如地緣政治因素等等，可能會使情況變得更糟。

On the flip side, there's a lot of potential upside here too relative to sort of that $6. Right now, demand has been incredibly weak since 2019. We've told you housing, and you all know, total home sales down 20%, not just here, but in Europe, China is worse. You've got consumer durables down 5% to 15%. You've got cars barely getting back to 2019 levels.

另一方面，相對於 6 美元左右的價格，這裡也有很大的潛在上漲空間。目前，自 2019 年以來，市場需求一直非常疲軟。我們已經告訴你們住房狀況，你們也都知道，房屋總銷量下降了 20%，不僅在這裡，在歐洲也是如此，中國的情況更糟。耐用消費品價格下跌了 5% 至 15%。現在汽車市場才勉強恢復到 2019 年的水準。

A lot of pressure in accessories in the auto market because people can barely afford the car. There's a lot of pent-up demand since 2019 to now, not to mention normal market growth being missing, that can recover at some point when consumers get confident and stable.

由於人們幾乎買不起車，汽車配件市場面臨很大的壓力。從 2019 年至今，市場存在著大量被壓抑的需求，更不用說正常的市場成長缺失了，但當消費者恢復信心和穩定後，這種需求可能會在某個時候得到恢復。

And especially for the US economy, more than China and Europe, I think the current administration is very focused on getting the economy to grow for the consumers, not just data centers and health care because the midterms are coming up. And so lower interest rates, obviously, will help a lot of the tax policy may get more money into the pockets of that 80%. There are a bunch of housing policies that they're considering that could be helpful. So I'm very hopeful that they take those actions and the consumers get healthier and buy more, and that would be upside.

尤其對美國經濟而言，我認為比起中國和歐洲，本屆政府更加重視促進經濟成長，以惠及消費者，而不僅僅是資料中心和醫療保健，因為中期選舉即將到來。因此，很顯然，較低的利率將有助於稅收政策讓那 80% 的人獲得更多收入。他們正在考慮一系列可能有所幫助的住房政策。所以我非常希望他們採取這些措施，讓消費者更健康，購買更多產品，這將是一件好事。

So we're very focused on controlling what we can control, very aware that the economy could go any direction, so we're not going to take our eye off the ball and everything that we can control. But there's just a lot of uncertainty. And right now, we're just focused on making sure we get a good start to Q1 and build from there.

所以我們非常專注於控制我們能控制的事情，也非常清楚經濟可能會朝著任何方向發展，所以我們不會放鬆警惕，並且全力以赴控制一切我們能控制的事情。但目前存在許多不確定因素。現在，我們只專注於確保第一季有個好的開始，並以此為基礎繼續發展。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

約翰·羅伯茨，瑞穗銀行。

It wasn't very long ago that you had a young chick featured on the cover of your slides. What's going on with the ag products you're just continuing?

不久前，你的幻燈片封面上還印著一個年輕女孩的照片。你們還在繼續生產這些農產品，這是怎麼回事？

We had a couple of Crop Protection products in Europe that had a regulatory ban going forward so we had to stop selling them. So that's what happened. It's just a European specific thing, but there were profitable products, and we felt the impact. We will see it to impact this year.

我們在歐洲有幾款作物保護產品被監管機構禁止銷售，所以我們不得不停止銷售這些產品。事情就是這樣。這只是歐洲特有的現象，但確實有一些獲利產品受到了影響。我們將看到它對今年產生影響。

Maybe I could get a second one then. What's going on with the decline that you cited in rPET from mechanical recycling?

也許我還能再買一個。您提到的機械回收利用的rPET產量下降問題，現在是什麼情況？

Decline?

衰退？

Decline in quality. I think you cited (multiple speakers) rPET.

品質下降。我認為你引用了（多位發言者）rPET。

Yes, yes, absolutely, John. So the decline in mechanical recycling quality. What happens is -- and we've been -- we've known this from the beginning of our platform and why we're so excited about chemical recycling is, mechanical recycling has a major flaw, which is when you melt plastic, you break down the bonds of the polymer chain every time.

是的，是的，當然可以，約翰。因此，機械回收品質下降了。事實是——而且我們一直都知道——我們從平台創立之初就知道這一點，我們對化學回收如此興奮的原因在於，機械回收存在一個重大缺陷，那就是每次熔化塑料時，都會破壞聚合物鏈的鍵。

And as you do that over cycles, the polymer integrity chains get worse and worse. And so the quality of material degrades, and you get impurities also in the polymer because you have to remember, mechanical cycling has no purification.

隨著循環次數的增加，聚合物鏈的完整性會越來越差。因此，材料的品質會下降，而且聚合物中也會出現雜質，因為你必須記住，機械循環沒有淨化作用。

So you take waste plastic, you select the cleanest, clearest bottles you can find in the plastic waste stream and then you wash them and then you chop them up and then you melt them back into pellets. So there's no purification.

所以，你要收集廢棄塑料，從塑膠垃圾中挑選出最乾淨、最透明的瓶子，然後清洗它們，再將它們切碎，最後將它們熔化成顆粒。所以沒有淨化過程。

So also if there's any contaminants in that bottle, it doesn't necessarily get removed from the polymer. So the polymer starts to get yellow, it starts to get gray. You will see that on the bottoms on the shelf that's already starting to show up. You also have some integrity issues around the strength of the polymers. So if you're stacking cases, the bottle will start to collapse a little bit.

所以，如果瓶子裡有任何污染物，不一定會從聚合物中去除。所以聚合物開始泛黃，然後開始泛灰。你會看到貨架底部已經開始出現這種情況了。此外，聚合物的強度也存在一些完整性問題。所以如果你把箱子堆放起來，瓶子就會開始稍微塌陷。

And so there was always a belief that in understanding that the mechanical integrity would degrade with mechanical recycling. And they thought it would take many years before that impact would actually show up in the polymer, and it's showing up a lot faster. It's already showing up.

因此，人們一直認為，機械完整性會隨著機械回收而降低。他們原本以為這種影響需要很多年才會真正體現在聚合物中，但現在它顯現得更快了。它已經出現了。

And that really confirms our value proposition because we have none of those problems, right? Chemical recycling, we -- as we told you, before we unzip the polymer back to the building blocks, we have a big purification step.

這確實證實了我們的價值主張，因為我們完全沒有這些問題，對吧？化學回收，正如我們之前告訴你們的，在將聚合物分解成基本組成單元之前，我們需要進行大量的純化步驟。

So the intermediates that we produce out of it that we then turn back into a polymer are perfect. They're exactly the same as virgin. In some cases, we're finding it's actually -- has a little bit better clarity than a virgin polymer. So -- and we can do this infinitely like aluminum.

因此，我們用它所生產的中間體，再轉化回聚合物，就是完美的。它們和處女膜一模一樣。在某些情況下，我們發現它實際上比純聚合物的透明度還要好一些。所以——我們可以像生產鋁一樣無限地生產鋁。

So we are really the long-term solution in chemical recycling. Mechanical is a good thing to do and it's energy-efficient, but its yield is incredibly low because -- they can only clean up 25% to 35% of the really clear bottles. The rest of it gets downgraded into low end markets or landfill. That's why long term, we're very confident about the value of this whole platform having a lot more demand, and it's already being confirmed with our customers now recognizing how much our quality is better.

因此，我們才是化學品回收的真正長期解決方案。機械清洗是一種很好的方法，而且節能，但其產量非常低，因為——他們只能清洗 25% 到 35% 的真正透明的瓶子。其餘部分則降級到低端市場或掩埋場。因此，從長遠來看，我們對整個平台的價值非常有信心，相信它會有更大的需求，而且我們的客戶也已經證實了這一點，他們認識到我們的品質要好得多。

And that's why you see some volume being pulled forward with Pepsi and some other brands into buying our bit from us next year -- nothing this year relative to when the second plant was going to come online.

這就是為什麼你會看到百事可樂和其他一些品牌提前購買我們明年的部分產品——今年相對於第二家工廠投產的時間來說，沒有任何銷售量。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Mark, I wanted to get a sense -- I wanted to get your sense of where you think inventory levels are at your customers. Obviously, you spoke a little bit about the volume decline that we saw in 4Q, kind of reminiscent of the great destock back in '22, '23. So I mean you might make the case that inventory levels have to be bone dry at your customers, but I'm curious as to what your thoughts are.

馬克，我想了解一下——我想了解一下你認為你的客戶的庫存水平如何。顯然，您剛才談到了我們在第四季度看到的銷量下降，這有點像 2022 年、2023 年的大減持。所以，你可能會認為客戶的庫存必須完全斷貨，但我很好奇你的想法是什麼。

So I think that a lot of very painful lessons were learned back in '21 and '22 when customers and the retail channel massively overbuilt inventory. And then demand corrected, obviously, with inflation, interest rates, et cetera, and people got caught holding on a lot of inventory that took a very long time to destock.

所以我認為，在 2021 年和 2022 年，當顧客和零售通路大量囤積庫存時，我們學到了很多非常痛苦的教訓。然後，需求顯然隨著通貨膨脹、利率等因素而調整，人們囤積了大量庫存，需要很長時間才能清空庫存。

I would say this year is very different or 2025 was very different than '23. First of all, people learned their lesson and we're not building inventory for some expected high growth scenario. Everyone was at the beginning of '25, pretty cautious about the economic scenario for the year.

我認為今年與2023年非常不同，或者說2025年與2023年非常不同。首先，人們已經吸取了教訓，我們不會為了應對預期的高成長而囤積庫存。2025年初，大家對當年的經濟情勢相當謹慎。

So customers and retailers were being disciplined on that. Now what was different was April changed everything, right? So when the tariff trade sort of situation escalated, that caused everyone to go into action mode to try and mitigate their exposure and they bought more than they needed for the moment where they were trying to get ahead of those tariffs. And then demand slowed down a bit, as we described from Q1 to Q2 with the consumer.

所以，消費者和零售商都因此受到了處罰。現在不同的是，四月改變了一切，對吧？因此，當關稅貿易狀況升級時，導致每個人都進入行動模式，試圖減輕自身風險，他們購買了比當時實際需要的更多的商品，試圖搶在關稅生效前做好準備。然後，正如我們在第一季到第二季對消費者所描述的那樣，需求有所放緩。

So you ended up with some excess inventory, not just for us because we were doing the same thing, building some volume with the expectation of modestly improving sales in the back half of the year, and obviously, that didn't happen. So we had to do our own destocking in Q3.

所以你們最終出現了一些庫存過剩的情況，不僅僅是我們，因為我們也在做同樣的事情，透過囤積庫存來預期下半年的銷售額會略有增長，但顯然，這種情況並沒有發生。因此，我們在第三季不得不自行進行去庫存。

Same was true of our customers, right? They were sitting on more inventory than they needed with the consumer demand not improving materially and had to sort of take action on reducing that inventory. But the inventory levels they started with were much lower than where we were back in '23. And the change in end market demand is not significant, right? End market demand has moderated a bit. But it didn't sort of collapse like it did in the back half of '22 and '23.

我們的客戶也是如此，對嗎？由於消費者需求沒有實質改善，他們的庫存過多，不得不採取措施減少庫存。但他們最初的庫存水準比我們在 2023 年的庫存水準要低得多。終端市場需求的變化並不顯著，對嗎？終端市場需求略有放緩。但它並沒有像 2022 年下半年和 2023 年下半年那樣崩潰。

I think the other test of it, Frank, is back then, we had a huge and difficult Q4, where volume really dropped and then it dropped even more in Q1 of '23, right? Whereas now we see orders picking up in January, February relative to last fourth quarter, right? So that also gives me that comfort that they wouldn't be ordering more right now if they hadn't managed their inventory.

弗蘭克，我認為另一個考驗是，當時我們經歷了一個巨大而艱難的第四季度，銷量大幅下降，然後在 2023 年第一季進一步下降，對吧？而現在我們看到，與去年第四季相比，1月和2月的訂單量有所回升，對吧？所以，這也讓我感到安心，如果他們沒有妥善管理庫存，現在就不會再訂購更多了。

Okay. Got you. Okay. And so that feeds into my next question. I'm trying to just reconcile a couple of different items related to this. The asset utilization headwind in 2025 was $100 million, running your plants lower because of -- because you want to meet demand. So that's $100 million negative in '25.

好的。抓到你了。好的。這就引出了我的下一個問題。我正在嘗試協調與此相關的幾個不同事項。2025 年資產利用率的不利因素為 1 億美元，因為要滿足需求，所以工廠的運作速度會降低。所以2025年虧損了1億美元。

Now for '26, you're guiding $25 million to $50 million benefit from utilization, lower shutdowns and volume growth. So it's $25 million to $50 million for that. Is that directly comparable to that $100 million negative for 2025 and is also the $20 million benefit from lower maintenance in '26 versus '25. So if you can reconcile those numbers, that would be very helpful.

現在，對於 2026 年，您預計透過提高利用率、減少停機和提高產量，可獲得 2,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元的收益。所以這筆費用在2500萬美元到5000萬美元之間。這是否與 2025 年的 1 億美元負面影響直接可比，以及 2026 年因維護成本降低而獲得的 2,000 萬美元收益與 2025 年相比是否也是如此。所以，如果你能核對這些數字，那就非常有幫助了。

All right, Frank. Just at a high level, what I would highlight for you is, as Mark just highlighted, we had to do some of our own destocking. So first half to second half, we basically had $100 million headwind as we look at the way we run our plants, the demand that we had in the first half and with the tariff, I'll call it, initiated pre-buying ultimately in the back half as things got more cautious, we turned our plants down to deliver the $1 billion commitment that we made on cash flow.

好的，弗蘭克。簡單來說，我想強調的是，正如馬克剛才提到的那樣，我們不得不進行一些自己的清倉處理。因此，從上半年到下半年，我們基本上面臨 1 億美元的逆風。我們審視一下工廠的運作方式，上半年的需求，以及關稅（我稱之為）引發的預購，最終在下半年，隨著情況變得更加謹慎，我們降低了工廠的產量，以履行我們對現金流做出的 10 億美元承諾。

As you think about on a year-over-year basis, we highlighted in '24, we actually built inventory as we were planning for the strategic transitions to serve our circular economy footprint, including the rPET, and we built inventory in advance of the transition.

從同比角度來看，我們在 2024 年重點指出，我們實際上在規劃策略轉型以服務我們的循環經濟足跡（包括 rPET）時建立了庫存，並且我們在轉型之前就建立了庫存。

I would say our Advanced Materials business did a great job of bringing that inventory back down, but it was really the build of inventory in '24 and the implications. So that's why there's a more modest utilization tailwind as we go into '26 from '25 is it's really those lower planned turnarounds as well as the benefit of not planning to build or deplete inventory. We expect to hold it pretty stable in our baseline assumptions starting the year.

我認為我們的先進材料業務在降低庫存方面做得非常出色，但真正的問題在於 2024 年的庫存累積及其影響。所以，從 2025 年到 2026 年，利用率的順風幅度會比較溫和，這主要是因為計畫中的周轉次數減少，以及不計畫建造或消耗庫存的好處。我們預計年初時將保持基準假設的穩定。

The other thing I'd add is, we have plans to drive a lot of volume growth in the things that we can control. We're appropriately cautious like everyone else in the industry right now, but with the underlying market demand is going to be. The demand is stable.

我還要補充一點，我們計劃在我們能夠控制的領域大幅提升銷售量。目前，我們和業內其他所有人一樣保持著應有的謹慎，但市場需求終將如此。需求穩定。

We can deliver on all the volume that we're trying to achieve. The tailwind is going to be more than $25 million to $50 million of utilization benefit for this year. But we need to prove all that, right? So we're going to be a little conservative on how we think about that number until we see all the volume come together.

我們可以實現我們想要達到的所有產量目標。今年，利好因素將帶來超過 2,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元的利用率收益。但我們需要證明這一切，對吧？所以，在看到所有數據總結之前，我們對這個數字的看法會比較保守。

And also, just as we highlighted on Advanced Materials and while we -- the reason to believe, obviously, a large portion of the benefit will show up in Advanced Materials from utilization.

而且，正如我們在先進材料中所強調的那樣，我們有理由相信，顯然，很大一部分收益將體現在先進材料的利用上。

Kevin McCarthy, VRP.

Kevin McCarthy，VRP。

This is Matt on for Kevin McCarthy. Could you size the opportunity for your high purity solvents in the semiconductor end market within Additives and Functional products? What does that growth rate look like? And how do the margins compare to the rest of the segment?

這裡是馬特，替凱文麥卡錫報道。您能否評估一下貴公司高純度溶劑在半導體終端市場（添加劑和功能產品領域）的市場機會？這個成長率是多少？與該細分市場的其他部分相比，其利潤率如何？

The high purity solvents is a great business. The margins are definitely above segment average in that business and it's always great to be connected to semiconductors right now and being on that growth. It's not a huge product line and we don't break out those kind of numbers in our portfolio. But it is a meaningful contributor to sort of how to drive earnings growth, how to offset some of these discontinued products as we think about how we keep AFP stable this year.

高純度溶劑是個很棒的生意。該行業的利潤率絕對高於行業平均水平，而且現在能與半導體行業聯繫在一起並參與到這個成長趨勢中總是非常棒的。這不是一條龐大的產品線，我們的產品組合中也不會單獨列出這類數據。但這對於我們如何推動獲利成長、如何抵銷一些停產產品的影響，以及我們如何在今年保持 AFP 的穩定，都具有重要的意義。

And the growth rates are higher in the 20%, 30% range and how we're growing it, but it's not a huge number when you apply that 20% to 30%. So don’t go overboard in how you think about it. But it definitely is helpful as we think about that lower HTF sales and a couple of the discontinued products being a headwind this year and -- I'm sorry, in AFP and how we offset it.

成長率在 20%、30% 的範圍內更高，而且是按照我們目前的成長速度，但當你把 20% 到 30% 的成長率應用到其他方面時，這並不是一個巨大的數字。所以不要想得太複雜。但考慮到今年 HTF 銷量下降以及一些產品停產的不利影響，以及——抱歉，在 AFP 中，我們如何抵消這些不利影響，這絕對很有幫助。

And then in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that the EPS guidance you gave for 1Q does not include the impact from winter storms. And I appreciate that's hard to predict, but could you maybe give us an idea of how you're thinking about that, given how the winter has progressed so far?

然後，在您事先準備好的發言稿中，您提到您給出的第一季每股收益預期不包括冬季風暴的影響。我知道這很難預測，但鑑於目前冬季的進展情況，您能否告訴我們您對此有何看法？

To your point, it's too early at this point. We still have freezing temperatures here in Tennessee as well as our site in Longview, Texas. And there's more snow that's getting ready to come. We've seen limited impact on our facility so far. As you might expect, I'm sure you've been watching the natural gas markets.

你說得對，現在討論這個問題還為時過早。田納西州和我們在德克薩斯州朗維尤的工地仍然氣溫低於冰點。而且，還有更多的雪即將到來。目前來看，對我們的設施影響有限。正如你所料，我相信你一直在關注天然氣市場。

So the main impact is on the energy and natural gas. And where does that actually play out and influence. As Mark highlighted, we expected the higher natural gas in Q1, but this could also be an additional tailwind. Ultimately, we're taking actions to ensure the safety as a headwind in addition to what we had already forecasted.

因此，主要影響體現在能源和天然氣方面。那麼，這究竟會在哪些方面發揮作用並產生影響力呢？正如馬克所強調的，我們預計第一季天然氣價格會上漲，但這可能也是額外的利多因素。最終，我們正在採取措施確保安全，這相當於在我們先前預測的逆風之外又增加了一層阻力。

We're taking actions on sort of the safety of our team members and reducing rates to also limit the amount of natural gas headwind that would come from this event. And obviously, we have a hedging program, and we're -- about half of that is hedged as we go through the quarter. We will provide, I'll call it, more information as we talk to you throughout the quarter.

我們正在採取措施保障團隊成員的安全，並降低費率，以限制此事件可能帶來的天然氣供應逆風。顯然，我們有一個對沖計劃，而且我們——大約有一半的損失在本季度內都得到了對沖。在本季度與您的溝通中，我們將提供更多資訊。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾，美國銀行。

Yes. So firstly, I wanted to go back to the fibers volume. I know it's been a pretty long discussion, but I still do not really understand getting that, obviously, the textile part was down a lot, how given the volume bands in tow the volume was down 19%, setting aside the EBIT that you addressed in the first question of the call. So what are typically the volume bands in your contracts? Like is the minimum actually 20% below, for example, the normal level?

是的。首先，我想回到纖維體積的問題。我知道討論已經持續了很長時間，但我仍然不太明白，儘管紡織品部分明顯下降，但考慮到銷量區間，銷量卻下降了 19%，這還不包括您在電話會議的第一個問題中提到的息稅前利潤。那麼，你們合約中通常的交易量區間是多少？例如，最低標準實際上比正常水平低 20% 嗎？

And secondly, as we think about this year's volume, you do mention in the call that you secured flat volumes year-on-year, but there will be continued destocking. So I don't really understand what that leaves us on a net basis for the Fibers volume year-on-year. Should we just assume flat? Or does this mean there is a risk to the downside?

其次，當我們考慮今年的銷售時，您在電話會議中提到，您確保了銷售量與去年持平，但庫存將繼續減少。所以我不太明白，從淨收益來看，纖維產量比去年同期會是多少。我們是否應該假設地平說？或者說，這是否意味著存在下行風險？

On a full year basis, you should assume that the tow volumes are stable last year. So that -- just to get that question on the table. And then we have some volume growth we're pursuing in textiles on top of that sort of stable volume situation. The way you think about the contracts last year relative to the contracts we have this year. So we started the year last year with volumes that were obviously better in Q1 and then they were became less each quarter.

從全年來看，你應該假設去年的拖船量保持穩定。所以——只是想把這個問題提出來。此外，在紡織品業務保持穩定成長的基礎上，我們也正在追求業務量的成長。你如何看待去年的合約與我們今年的合約之間的關係。所以去年年初，我們的銷售量在第一季明顯更好，然後每季都在下降。

Q1 started largely with customers buying in their contract ranges, but not all at the bottom of the ranges. And that's where the volume sort of was sort of normal in that sense, outside of a couple of things that we started the year with under destocking, but a lot of customers were normal. And then as the year went on, more and more people started taking actions and going to their contract minimums to try and destock.

第一季開始，客戶大多購買了合約範圍內的產品，但並非所有人都購買了合約範圍內的最低價產品。從這個意義上講，銷量基本上正常，除了年初因清倉處理而導致的少數情況外，許多顧客都正常。隨著時間推移，越來越多的人開始採取行動，達到合約規定的最低消費額，試圖減少庫存。

And we had also had some growth commitments from a couple of customers last year that was -- that they had plans on assets in the ground. They were buying the volume for their growth, that they thought they were going to have and winning some share from some competitors and that growth didn't materialize for them.

去年，我們也從幾位客戶那裡獲得了一些成長承諾——他們計劃在已建成的資產上進行投資。他們當時購買產品是為了實現成長，他們認為自己能夠從競爭對手那裡贏得一些市場份額，但這種成長並沒有實現。

So suddenly, they're sitting on more material they needed and started but really reducing their demand, too. And that's sort of how the volume evolved to where we were, where most people are focused on destocking at the end of the year.

所以突然之間，他們囤積了比之前需要的更多的材料，並且已經開始生產，但實際上他們的需求也在大幅下降。交易量就是這樣演變成我們現在所處的局面，而大多數人都在年底集中精力進行庫存清理。

So in that context, we then sort of pursued and achieved a bunch of contracts that have volume ranges to them. And when we look at those contracts that we have in place now and the actions that we've taken, we believe, on an annual basis, the volumes when they're at their minimum will be stable to the volumes we realized last year.

所以在這種背景下，我們隨後爭取並達成了一系列有數量限制的合約。當我們審視目前已有的合約和已採取的行動時，我們相信，從年度角度來看，即使銷量處於最低水平，也能與去年實現的銷量保持穩定。

But those contracts, while they're volume commits on an annual basis, they're not -- they have flexibility quarter-by-quarter and how much they buy in the annual commitment. And so they're modestly lower in Q1 on their commitments. So they have to buy a bit more to stay in their contact zone as we go through the year which also coincides with, I think, less destocking that they need to accomplish this year relative to last year.

但這些合約雖然是按年度簽訂的採購量承諾，但實際上並非如此——它們在季度和年度承諾的購買量方面都具有靈活性。因此，他們在第一季的承諾略有下降。因此，為了保持在今年的市場覆蓋範圍內，他們不得不多買一些貨，我認為這也與他們今年需要比去年減少的庫存減少相吻合。

Okay. Perfect. That's very helpful. The other thing is a little bit on the variable compensation. I mean you are walking a tightrope trying to make sure that earnings will grow this year, as we said in the guidance -- in the outlook.

好的。完美的。那很有幫助。還有一點是關於浮動薪酬的。我的意思是，你們就像走鋼索一樣，努力確保今年的獲利成長，正如我們在業績展望中所說的那樣。

So -- and you're cutting costs by, I believe, over $300 million in terms of the gross cost reductions, right? So in this context, why would the variable compensation will be such a big headwind? Then I guess if you do not deliver on earnings growth because of whatever happens in the macro environment, how should we think the headwind -- like will the the variable comp be a headwind? Or could it actually end up being neutral year-on-year?

所以——我相信，你們透過削減總成本，節省了超過 3 億美元，對吧？那麼，在這種情況下，為什麼浮動薪酬會變成如此大的阻力呢？那麼，如果由於宏觀環境的變化導致獲利成長未能實現，我們應該如何看待不利因素——例如，可變薪酬是否會成為不利因素？或者，最終結果會不會與前一年持平？

So what I would highlight is, obviously, as we set out with our business plans in 2025, the expectations at the start of the year were much higher than what was realized. Obviously, we reset commitments, but the plan was in place and we're accountable to shareholders for that plan. As a result, you're going to see lower -- there's lower variable comp expense in our P&L in 2025 and there will be lower cash payments here in '26 for those plans.

因此，我想強調的是，很顯然，當我們制定 2025 年的商業計劃時，年初的預期遠高於實際實現的預期。顯然，我們重新調整了承諾，但計劃已經制定，我們要對股東負責，因為該計劃已經落實。因此，您將會看到－2025 年我們損益表中的可變薪酬支出將減少，2026 年這些計畫的現金支付也會減少。

As we're resetting the business scenarios that Mark's outlined today, we expect to deliver on those. And if we deliver that stable cash and also deliver on all the actions, net of some of the headwinds, we would expect that the variable comp would reset and would be a headwind year-over-year of about $50 million to $75 million, depending on where we see those scenarios play out.

鑑於我們正在重新調整馬克今天概述的業務場景，我們期望能夠實現這些目標。如果我們能夠提供穩定的現金流，並且能夠落實所有行動計劃，扣除一些不利因素後，我們預計可變薪酬將會重置，並且每年將產生約 5000 萬美元至 7500 萬美元的不利影響，具體取決於我們對這些情況的預期發展。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

This is Lydia Huang on for Jeff. How much have you spent on the second methanolysis project? And what would help you make a go or no-go decision? And are you looking for another baseload contract given Pepsi has been pulled forward?

這裡是Lydia Huang，替Jeff為您報道。你們在第二個甲醇解計畫上花了多少錢？什麼因素會讓你做出是否繼續的決定？鑑於百事可樂的訂單提前交付，您是否正在尋找另一份基本負載合約？

So as far as the second project is concerned and expense, obviously, we've already done some engineering expense around building the facility in Texas, and then we lost the DOE grant, and we put all that work on hold. So we're not spending any money on engineering at this stage until we've lined out and developed a compelling project to be a lot more capital efficient in how we're approaching it to restart the project and go forward.

所以就第二個項目和費用而言，顯然，我們已經在德克薩斯州建造該設施方面投入了一些工程費用，然後我們失去了能源部的撥款，我們暫停了所有這些工作。因此，在現階段，我們不會把任何資金投入到工程方面，直到我們制定並開發出一個令人信服的項目，以更有效率地利用資金來重啟項目並繼續推進項目。

So right now, we don't have any engineering expense or headwind from a capital expense point of view. Obviously, there's a team working on the circular economy across all platforms around the globe. And we're taking that cost down to some degree, too, as we adjust the rate at which we're progressing.

所以目前，從資本支出的角度來看，我們沒有任何工程費用或阻力。顯然，全球各地都有團隊致力於在各個平台上推動循環經濟。隨著我們調整進度，我們也在一定程度上降低了成本。

But -- so that's where we're at. But I would say though, around the second project, one, we're really excited that Kingsport can be debottlenecked by 130%, which allows us to grow more from the first plant, have better ROIC from the first plant before we get to the second plant, and that's what's enabling us to be confident that we can grow the especially economic recovery and serve the rPET market with some of our customers who are coming back and wanting to buy from us a lot sooner, as I described earlier, due to the degradation of mechanical material that they can buy. So that's all really good.

但是——這就是我們目前的處境。但我想說的是，關於第二個項目，首先，我們非常高興金斯波特工廠的產能瓶頸可以降低 130%，這使我們能夠從第一家工廠獲得更多收益，並在第二家工廠投產之前從第一家工廠獲得更高的投資回報率，這使我們有信心能夠促進經濟復甦，並為 rPET 市場提供服務。正如我之前所述，由於他們能夠購買的機械材料性能下降，一些客戶正在回歸並希望更快地從我們這裡購買產品。所以這一切都很好。

And it gives us time to work on this idea of more capital-efficient second plant, which we very much want to build. And so we've got three different options going on there where we're looking at different locations and assets we could leverage that already exist that we feel very good that at least one of them will be quite viable to move forward.

這給了我們時間來研究建造一個資本效率更高的第二家工廠的想法，我們非常想建造這座工廠。因此，我們目前有三個不同的方案，我們正在考察不同的地點和可以利用的現有資產，我們感覺至少其中一個方案是完全可行的。

But because of the debottlenecking, that means we can avoid ramping up significant CapEx around this platform this year and next. So it's a great solution to moderate our capital in a very difficult economic environment and make sure we have good strong free cash flow right now.

但由於瓶頸問題得到解決，這意味著我們今年和明年可以避免圍繞該平台大幅增加資本支出。因此，在當前非常艱難的經濟環境下，這是一個控制資本規模並確保我們擁有良好強勁自由現金流的絕佳解決方案。

But keep on track with the circular platform, which we believe, is still going to be incredibly successful over time. I mean, without a doubt, people are buying a little bit slower in the specialties right now because not because of recycling just because there's a lack of demand for their products, right?

但請繼續推動循環經濟模式，我們相信，隨著時間的推移，它仍然會取得巨大的成功。我的意思是，毫無疑問，現在人們購買特色商品的速度有所放緩，這並非因為回收利用，而是因為對這些產品的需求不足，對吧？

The consumer durable guys are under a lot of stress. So this all lined up and works out quite well to have a great platform, manage cash in the short term, be responsible to our shareholders on return on investment.

耐用消費品產業的從業人員壓力很大。所以這一切都安排妥當了，效果非常好，我們擁有了一個優秀的平台，短期內可以管理現金，並對股東的投資回報負責。

And is the Pepsi contract, the main contributor? And this is for the Kingsport project, is that the main contributor to the $30 million incremental earnings in '26? Or is that later in the year?

百事可樂的合約是主要貢獻者嗎？這是金斯波特項目，它是 2026 年新增 3000 萬美元收入的主要貢獻者嗎？還是說要等到今年稍後？

So the revenue growth for the Kingsport project in '26 running '25. Certainly, there is a significant amount of revenue coming in from rPET. Pepsi is one of the contracts that we have in place. We also have several other strategic leading brands, ramping up volumes with us on rPET as well. So that is a big part of the 4% to 5% revenue increase.

所以，2026 年金斯波特計畫的營收成長與 2025 年相比有所成長。當然，rPET 帶來了可觀的收入。百事可樂是我們已簽訂合約的供應商之一。我們還有其他幾個策略領導品牌，也正在與我們一起提高 rPET 的產量。所以，這在很大程度上解釋了4%到5%的收入成長。

To what degree the specialties play a role in the final outcome for the year? It goes back to the macroeconomic question we talked about. If the world stays stable, we expect some growth in the specialties especially in consumer durables, where Renew content we involve. We still have 100 customers committed and buying specialty Tritan Renew and some cosmetic Renew products, et cetera. They're just not ramping volumes up as much as we'd like because the economy is so challenged.

各專業在多大程度上影響了年度最終結果？這又回到了我們之前討論的宏觀經濟問題。如果世界保持穩定，我們預計專業領域，特別是耐用消費品領域（Renew 內容涉及該領域），將會出現一些成長。我們仍有 100 位客戶持續購買 Tritan Renew 專業產品和一些 Renew 化妝品等產品。由於經濟情勢嚴峻，他們的產量成長速度並沒有達到我們的預期。

Once they start -- once you have a stable economy, that starts -- they start launching new products to try and accelerate their growth and our volumes will grow with them. So as the year plays out, we expect some of that specialty business, hopefully, will start coming in and being a bigger part of the mix, but a very good portion is rPET, but it's not just Pepsi, it's several other customers.

一旦經濟穩定下來——一旦經濟開始穩定下來——他們就會開始推出新產品，以加速成長，而我們的銷售也會隨之成長。隨著這一年的推進，我們預計一些特種業務將會開始進入市場，並佔據更大的份額，但rPET仍然佔據很大一部分，而且不僅僅是百事可樂，還有其他幾家客戶。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

麥克西森，富國銀行。

Mark, when you think about sort of restoring earnings -- Eastman's earnings power back to where it used to be, is there anything structural, do you think, in either the end markets or competition or China or something that could prevent that?

馬克，當你考慮如何恢復伊士曼的獲利能力，使其恢復到以前的水平時，你認為在終端市場、競爭、中國或其他方面是否存在任何結構性因素會阻礙這一目標的實現？

Or -- and then just a quick one on your outlook for AM and AFP for sort of underpinning the significant earnings growth. What is kind of the range of volumes that you need? I know you have a lot of that volume with new products and within your control. What's sort of the variable on the volume growth that you need to get that sort of significant EBIT growth?

或者—再簡單談談您對 AM 和 AFP 的展望，它們能否支撐顯著的獲利成長。您需要的容量範圍大概是多少？我知道你們有很多新產品，而且這些產品都在你們的掌控之中。要達到如此顯著的息稅前利潤成長，銷售成長需要達到怎樣的水平？

Thanks, Mike. And yes, we spent a lot of time on this question, and we talked a bit about it at the deep dive and how we thought about getting back to what we said was normalized earnings and you can go back and look at some of that material because I think most of it is still true in what we said then to where we are now.

謝謝你，麥克。是的，我們花了很多時間在這個問題上，我們在深入探討中也談到了這一點，以及我們如何考慮恢復到我們所說的正常收益水準。您可以回顧當時的一些資料，因為我認為我們當時所說的大部分內容至今仍然適用。

Without a doubt, when you think about the driver of where our earnings are today, it is primarily due to lower volume from economic demand that's impacting AM and AFP to some degree as well as CI. So it's -- that demand, whether it's high-value specialty growth in AM, very attractive growth in AFP or even just North American high value relative to exports in CI, has all been impacted by the economy.

毫無疑問，當我們思考我們目前的獲利狀況時，主要原因是經濟需求下降導致銷量減少，這在一定程度上影響了 AM 和 AFP 以及 CI。所以，無論是積層製造 (AM) 的高價值特種產品成長，還是自動成型 (AFP) 的極具吸引力的成長，甚至是北美相對於出口而言的高價值產品，所有這些需求都受到了經濟的影響。

And it's been weak, as we all know, for over four years, which is pretty unprecedented in that kind of a time frame, like 2009, 2020 were short blips, really steeped down and snap back. This is a long duration.

眾所周知，經濟已經疲軟四年多了，這在當時的時間段內是相當前所未有的，就像 2009 年和 2020 年那樣，經濟只是短暫的波動，急劇下滑後又迅速反彈。持續時間很長。

So as we look at all that, and I said this earlier, there's a huge amount of potential pent-up demand to recover. Cars are 15 years old. Appliances are getting to their end of life when they bought them back in 2020. The housing market being 20% down. And for us, total housing is what matters, not new builds to be clear.

所以，當我們審視所有這些因素時，正如我之前所說，存在著巨大的潛在被壓抑的需求需要釋放。這些車車齡15年。他們2020年購買的家電現在已經接近使用壽命的終點了。房地產市場下跌了20%。對我們來說，重要的是住房總量，而不是新建住房，這一點要明確指出。

The total housing, which is now down 20%, starts to recover, that's a lot of paint. That's a lot of appliances that go with people moving into a new or an existing home. And so there's a lot of upside in demand that can recover a lot of our earnings. So that's sort of the key, is that innovation, you've got the circular platform driving a lot of growth on top of a core market recovery.

整體住房需求目前下降了 20%，但隨著住房需求開始回升，這需要大量的油漆。對於搬進新家或現有住宅的人來說，這相當於很多家電。因此，需求方面有很大的上漲空間，可以彌補我們大部分的收益損失。所以關鍵就在於創新，循環經濟平台在核心市場復甦的基礎上推動了巨大的成長。

And what's been impressive over the last three years, we've done a phenomenally good job of maintaining our price and our variable margins while defending our share because of our innovation, giving us differentiation.

在過去三年裡，我們憑藉創新實現了差異化，在保持價格和可變利潤率的同時捍衛了市場份額，這令人印象深刻。

So if volume comes back, the incremental margins, the volume recovery and the utilization benefits that go with it, I think, are quite significant to bring earnings in AM and to some degree, AFP back in a meaningful way and even help CI recover in their earnings. So I think that's all really good.

因此，如果銷量回升，增量利潤、銷量恢復以及隨之而來的利用率提升，我認為對於使 AM 的盈利以及在某種程度上使 AFP 的盈利恢復到有意義的水平，甚至有助於 CI 的盈利恢復，都具有相當大的意義。所以我覺得這一切都很好。

Now obviously, the structural -- so I don't think we have a structural problem in AM and AFP. We have a cyclical market demand problem. That has been our challenge. And to some degree, that's also true in CI. Now there are structural challenges in the olefins world, in the acetyls world from excess capacity in China impacting some of the chemical intermediate margins.

現在很明顯，結構方面——所以我認為AM和AFP不存在結構性問題。我們面臨週期性市場需求問題。這就是我們面臨的挑戰。在某種程度上，CI 也是如此。現在烯烴領域面臨結構性挑戰，中國產能過剩導致乙醯基產品部分化學中間體利潤受到影響。

And there's a debate, obviously, going on in the industry around to what degree did that structural pressure change. I mean right now, we are for sure at the bottom of the market when the prices are at the variable cash cost of the Chinese. So I don't think that's sustainable. But to what degree it fully recovers, is unclear on CI.

顯然，業界正在就這種結構性壓力在多大程度上發生了變化展開辯論。我的意思是，現在價格已經跌至中國可變現金成本的水平，我們肯定處於市場底部。所以我認為這不可持續。但是，在CI中，它的完全恢復程度尚不清楚。

Now with CI, when you think about it, the actions we're taking on E2P provide a big lift the margin recovery and demand recovery in North America will provide a lift. So there's a way to get the earnings back from where they are today to probably $150 million, $200 million in a normalized place. Now that's probably below where we were in the past, trying to reflect some of the structural challenges that we expect, but a significant improvement from where we are today.

現在有了CI，仔細想想，我們在E2P方面採取的行動將極大地提振北美地區的利潤率恢復和需求恢復。所以，有辦法讓收益從目前的水平恢復到正常水平，大概能達到 1.5 億美元到 2 億美元。雖然這可能低於我們過去的水平，也反映了我們預期的一些結構性挑戰，但與今天的水平相比，已經是一個顯著的進步。

Fibers, as we've already covered, I think, we're trying to stabilize in this year. What's interesting is if you look at the EBITDA in 2020 -- 2019 for CI and fibers together, it's around $520 million. If you look at last year and put EBITDA together, it's about $100 million less.

纖維方面，正如我們之前提到的，我認為，我們今年正在努力使其穩定下來。有趣的是，如果你看 2020 年到 2019 年 CI 和纖維業務的 EBITDA 合計，大約是 5.2 億美元。如果把去年的 EBITDA 加起來看，就會發現少了約 1 億美元。

So from a structural question, which is more of a fiber CI question, just E2P can get you back to where we were in 2019 and then we have the specialties building on that. And we're taking a lot of cost out to -- $225 million to $250 million of cost is also coming out to offset structural challenges to enable us to get back to normalized earnings. So we still think it's possible to get back to that $2 billion kind of number.

所以從結構問題來看，這更像是一個光纖 CI 問題，E2P 讓你回到 2019 年的狀態，然後我們還有在此基礎上發展的專業領域。我們正在大幅削減成本——削減 2.25 億美元至 2.5 億美元的成本，以抵消結構性挑戰，使我們能夠恢復正常的獲利水準。所以我們仍然認為有可能恢復到20億美元的水準。

Let's make the next question the last one, please.

請把下一個問題當作最後一個問題。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞集團。

Laurence, are you still there? Becky, may we go on to the next one.

勞倫斯，你還在嗎？貝基，我們可以繼續下一個了。

(multiple speakers) Laurence' line.

（多人發言）勞倫斯的台詞。

Okay. So I think that's -- go ahead. Go ahead, Becky.

好的。所以我覺得──繼續吧。請繼續，貝基。

No, that's okay. Sorry, I was just going to say that was our last question.

不，沒關係。抱歉，我正要說這是我們最後一個問題了。

Perfect. So thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your time, and hope you have a great rest of your day.

完美的。謝謝大家今天蒞臨本節目。感謝您抽出時間，祝您今天餘下的時間愉快。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。