伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the second quarter 2025 Eastman conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加 2025 年第二季伊士曼電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle, Eastman Investor Relations.

現在我們將電話轉給伊士曼投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Becky, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, and Emily Alexander from the Investor Relations team.

謝謝你，貝基，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、執行副總裁兼首席財務官威利·麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain) 以及投資者關係團隊的傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe) 和艾米麗·亞歷山大 (Emily Alexander)。

Yesterday after market close, we posted our second quarter 2025 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investors section on our website, eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，我們在我們的網站 eastman.com 上的投資者部分發布了 2025 年第二季度財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件、幻燈片和相關的準備好的評論。

Before we begin, I'll cover two items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our second quarter 2025 results news release during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks, and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for full year 2024 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for second quarter 2025.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在本次電話會議期間的 2025 年第二季度業績新聞稿、前面的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的 2024 年全年 10-K 表格和將於 2025 年第二季度提交的 10-Q 表格。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain non-core items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items are available in the second quarter 2025 financial results news release. As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we will now go straight into Q&A.

其次，本簡報中所引用的收益不包括某些非核心項目。2025 年第二季財務業績新聞稿中提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標及其他相關揭露的對賬，包括排除和調整項目的描述。由於我們昨晚已將幻燈片和隨附的準備好的發言稿發佈在我們的網站上，因此我們現在將直接進入問答環節。

Becky, let's go ahead and start with our first question, please.

貝基，我們先開始我們的第一個問題吧。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。（操作員指示）

Patrick Cunningham, Citigroup.

花旗集團的派崔克‧坎寧安。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Look, you're reducing capital spend in 2026, now targeting pretty significant cost savings on top of that even larger in 2025. And this doesn't necessarily signal a stable to modestly improving macro in 2026.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。你看，你們在 2026 年削減了資本支出，現在的目標是在此基礎上在 2025 年實現更大的成本節約。這並不一定意味著 2026 年宏觀經濟將穩定或略有改善。

So could you help us understand how representative of the second half should be when we're thinking about trough earnings levels? And with growth projects deferred and lower for longer macro, has your thinking on mid-cycle earnings power changed at all?

那麼，當我們考慮最低獲利水準時，您能否幫助我們理解下半年應該具有怎樣的代表性？隨著成長項目被推遲，且長期宏觀經濟處於低迷狀態，您對中期獲利能力的看法是否有所改變？

That's a great question and a large one. So first of all, when you think about the back half of this year, it's heavily impacted in the decline by the trade situation that we face. And that's creating a lot of challenges for this industry and especially for the sort of consumer discretionary side of the house. So I don't think that the back half is really a relevant measurement for how the company is doing in total because you've got a lot of situations around what's going on with the tariffs.

這是一個非常好的問題，也是一個很大的問題。首先，當你想到今年下半年時，我們面臨的貿易狀況對經濟下滑產生了嚴重影響。這給這個行業帶來了很多挑戰，特別是對於非必需消費品行業來說。因此，我認為後半部並不是衡量公司整體表現的有效指標，因為圍繞關稅的情況有很多。

I mean when you think about us and the tariffs and the exposure we have in the back half of the year, there's sort of really sort of three impacts that it could potentially have on any company. But the biggest for us is by far what happens with demand, and that was also true in 2019. The second factor, of course, is retaliation that happens in other countries and how you work your way through that, and we do have some high US asset exposure when it comes to that equation.

我的意思是，當你考慮到我們以及關稅和我們在今年下半年面臨的風險時，它實際上可能會對任何公司產生三種影響。但對我們來說，迄今為止最大的問題是需求的變化，2019 年也是如此。當然，第二個因素是其他國家的報復行為以及如何應對，而就這一點而言，我們確實在美國資產方面有較高的曝險。

And then third is direct tariff impacts around raw materials and things like that, which we have very little exposure on because North America is all of our vertical integration and scale in North America is connected back to local raw materials. So it really is a big demand question about what's going on in this year, and what that then sort of indicates for next year as we think about this whole thing. And the trade war is by far, the driver of the demand dynamics in the second quarter as well as the back half.

第三是關稅對原料等的直接影響，我們對此影響很小，因為北美是我們所有的垂直整合地，北美洲的規模與當地原料息息相關。因此，這確實是一個很大的需求問題，關於今年發生了什麼，以及當我們考慮整個事情時，這對明年意味著什麼。到目前為止，貿易戰是第二季以及下半年需求動態的驅動因素。

And as we look at that and think about trade, the first thing I want to say is, there are unfair trade practices around the world, and there are -- there is aggressive dumping by some countries, especially overcapacity out of China and transshipping to avoid tariffs.

當我們審視這個問題並思考貿易時，我想說的第一件事是，世界各地都存在不公平的貿易行為，一些國家存在大規模傾銷，特別是中國的產能過剩和轉運以逃避關稅。

So there are real issues here for this industry that need to be addressed. But those, while very serious, need a strategic approach, and the challenge that we're having broadly right now is that, that trade strategy of going to all countries in the world at the same time may create more economic harm than what's necessary as you try and focus on what the real sources of the trade issues are in the country.

因此，這個行業確實存在一些需要解決的問題。但是，這些問題雖然非常嚴重，但需要採取戰略方針，而我們現在面臨的總體挑戰是，當你試圖關注該國貿易問題的真正根源時，同時針對世界所有國家的貿易戰略可能會造成比必要的更大的經濟損害。

And we sit here now where there's a lot of uncertainty. What you've had happen in the -- even in the GDP data you saw in Q2, a lot of volatility of imports going on, private inventory is dropping, there are people who are moving product all over the world to try and get ahead of tariffs, whether it's retailers or the brands or all the supply chain manufacturers that support them to avoid tariffs to buy time to see how things are going to get sorted out, take advantage of positives that happened in the second quarter, et cetera.

而我們現在所處的境況充滿著許多不確定性。您所看到的情況是——即使在第二季度的 GDP 數據中，進口波動很大，私人庫存下降，有人在世界各地運輸產品，試圖避開關稅，無論是零售商、品牌還是所有支持他們的供應鏈製造商，都希望避開關稅，以爭取時間看看事情將如何解決，利用第二季度發生的積極因素，等等。

So it's really chaotic to try and to understand what's really going on in end-market demand. Same question you have around consumers, how much do they buy ahead of tariffs potentially impacting prices in the first half of the year, which is probably why consumption was up versus them being conservative about worries about what they can afford for the year, same with customers, what do they think about demand.

因此，試圖了解終端市場需求的真正情況確實很混亂。關於消費者，你也有同樣的問題，在關稅可能影響上半年價格之前，他們會購買多少商品，這可能是消費量上升的原因，而他們對今年能負擔得起什麼卻持保守態度，對於客戶也是如此，他們對需求有何看法。

So there's a huge amount of chaos that goes into this whole situation that causes some challenges and complexity in Q2 and certainly is why we expect a sort of mid-single-digit drop in demand for the back half of the year, which is also representing some normal seasonality as well as some of the prebuy as well as customers being very cautious for everything I just said.

因此，整個局勢中存在大量混亂，導致第二季度出現一些挑戰和複雜性，當然這也是我們預計下半年需求將出現中等個位數下降的原因，這也代表了一些正常的季節性因素，以及一些預購以及客戶對我剛才所說的一切非常謹慎。

So you've got all that complexity, right? I mean a 15-plus or 15% to 40% tariffs as of last night to countries is a big impact to the market. So there's reasons to be cautious and careful about the back half of the year.

所以你已經了解了所有那些複雜性，對嗎？我的意思是，截至昨晚，對一些國家徵收 15% 以上或 15% 至 40% 的關稅對市場產生了巨大影響。因此，我們有理由對下半年保持謹慎和小心。

So with that, with what our customers are doing and being cautious in July, we sort of built this forecast in this -- and staying focused just on Q3 as well as not really trying to forecast the full back half of the year. So that is a distortion to try and think about what's going on in demand in general.

因此，考慮到我們的客戶在 7 月的做法和謹慎態度，我們在此基礎上做出了這樣的預測 - 並且只關注第三季度，而不是真正試圖預測今年下半年的情況。因此，試圖思考整體需求情況是一種扭曲。

The second is in that chaos, we've very much decided to focus on cash generation as we told you we would in April. And so we're taking all the actions we can to pull inventory down, generate cash, which, unfortunately, when you do this from an accounting point of view, ends up in a utilization headwind. It's not a cash headwind, it is actually generating cash, but utilization headwind is somewhere around $75 million to $100 million in the back half of the year. So that distorts the back half as well.

第二，在這種混亂的情況下，我們決定將重點放在現金創造上，正如我們在四月告訴你們的那樣。因此，我們正在採取一切可能的措施來降低庫存，產生現金，但不幸的是，從會計角度來看，這樣做最終會導致利用率下降。這不是現金逆風，它實際上正在產生現金，但利用率逆風在今年下半年約為 7500 萬至 1 億美元。所以這也會扭曲後半部。

So you've got the normal seasonality, you've got all these trade dynamics and you've got the utilization headwind. So the back half of the year is by no means something you can annualize and think about as representing what 2026 looks like.

因此，您有正常的季節性，有所有這些貿易動態，以及利用率的逆風。因此，今年下半年的情況絕對不是可以年度化並代表 2026 年的情況。

So your question is, what do we think about '26 and where demand could go there? The answer is, with the current chaos, no one knows where demand is going to go next year. But what we can do is with all the trade deals settling in one way or fashion, at least we're going to start getting some certainty that is always better than uncertainty to calm everyone down and everyone starts focusing on what they need to do in this context.

所以你的問題是，我們對 26 年有何看法以及需求會流向何處？答案是，在目前的混亂情況下，沒有人知道明年的需求將會走向何方。但我們能做的是，隨著所有貿易協議以某種方式或形式得到解決，至少我們將開始獲得一些確定性，這總是比不確定性更好，可以讓每個人平靜下來，每個人都開始關注他們在這種情況下需要做的事情。

So that will help stabilize things. You've got the other things that are very pro growth in the US administration from tax bills, less regulation, et cetera. So lots of other things that I think are pro growth outside of this trade disruption that's sort of going to help stabilize things.

這將有助於穩定局勢。美國政府也採取了其他有利於經濟成長的措施，例如稅收法案、減少監管等等。因此，我認為除了貿易摩擦之外，還有很多其他因素也有利於經濟成長，有助於穩定局勢。

So our view is, especially with our challenged demand is this year on top of what was already a bad situation from '22 to now, there is the reason to expect stability in the back half -- I mean, sorry, stability as you go into 2026, which would be equal to or certainly more likely better than where demand is now. But in this context, we have to manage our costs. We have to be aggressive in how we manage inventory because we don't know where things are going to go, and so we're going to take every action we can.

因此，我們的觀點是，尤其是在我們今年的需求面臨挑戰的情況下，再加上從 2022 年到現在已經很糟糕的情況，我們有理由預期下半年會穩定下來——我的意思是，進入 2026 年時會保持穩定，這將等於或肯定更有可能比現在的需求更好。但在這種情況下，我們必須管理成本。我們必須積極管理庫存，因為我們不知道貨物會去往何處，所以我們將採取一切可能的行動。

Great. I appreciate the detailed response. I guess just a quick one on the metathesis unit. How far are you along with that investment? And what gives you confidence on a pretty healthy step-up in profitability there?

偉大的。我很感謝您的詳細回覆。我想這只是關於複分解單元的一個快速介紹。這項投資目前進展如何？那麼，是什麼讓您對那裡的盈利能力將實現相當健康的提升充滿信心呢？

I'm sorry, you broke up for a second. Were you asking about E2P or methanolysis. I just couldn't hear what you're asking about.

對不起，一秒鐘就分手了。您問的是 E2P 還是甲醇分解？我只是聽不見你在問什麼。

Yeah. E2P, yes.

是的。E2P，是的。

Okay, sure. So obviously -- yeah, got it. So the Chemical Intermediates business obviously is facing some pretty significant challenges to -- they are the classic example, along with the entire commodity chemical industry of the impact overcapacity coming out of China and other countries impacting businesses. And we certainly see the industry right now at cash cost. And frankly, there's indication some of the products being exported to the world are below cash cost.

好的，當然。顯然——是的，明白了。因此，化學中間體業務顯然面臨著一些相當大的挑戰——它們是典型的例子，就像整個大宗化學品行業一樣，受到來自中國和其他國家產能過剩的影響。我們確實看到目前該行業處於現金成本狀態。坦白說，有跡象表明一些出口到世界各地的產品價格低於現金成本。

So we feel like we're probably at the bottom of the market but we're also constantly looking at how do we improve the structural strength of every business we have. We've done a lot of things to improve the CI business over time. We made the RGP investment. We shut our Singapore plant down, constantly looking at how to value up our mix in North America where our margins are much better than export markets, which at the moment is a challenge because of demand being off, but always looking for every opportunity.

因此，我們覺得我們可能處於市場的底部，但我們也在不斷研究如何提高我們每項業務的結構實力。隨著時間的推移，我們做了很多事情來改善 CI 業務。我們進行了 RGP 投資。我們關閉了新加坡的工廠，不斷尋找如何在北美提高我們的產品組合價值，我們的利潤率比出口市場高得多，目前這是一個挑戰，因為需求下降，但我們一直在尋找每一個機會。

And we told you all the way back in 2021, we had an idea of doing an ethylene-to-propylene investment to convert one of our existing crackers of the three that are at the site to going from ethylene-to-propylene. For those who are not familiar with Eastman, we make a lot of ethylene-to-propylene because that's what crackers do. But if we had PDH 4-decades ago, that's what we're going to build. The propylene is where we make all of our specialties. That's where our value sits.

我們早在 2021 年就告訴大家，我們有一個想法，進行一項乙烯制丙烯的投資，將我們現場現有的三個裂解裝置中的其中一個改造為乙烯制丙烯裂解裝置。對於不熟悉伊士曼的人來說，我們生產大量的乙烯-丙烯產品，因為這就是裂解裝置的作用。但如果我們四十年前就有了 PDH，那麼我們就會建造它。丙烯是我們生產所有特殊產品的原料。這就是我們的價值所在。

And then we're left with a bunch of excess ethylene just to run the crackers. So we've always been trying to reduce that. That's why we made the RGP flexibility investment to increase propylene. But we still have a bunch of ethylene. And so what we can do with this investment, we've come up with a lot of insights since '21 to scale it up to a bigger capability, and that allows us to convert ethylene to propylene.

然後，我們就會剩下一堆過剩的乙烯來運作裂解裝置。因此我們一直在努力減少這種情況。這就是我們進行 RGP 彈性投資以增加丙烯的原因。但我們仍然有大量乙烯。那我們可以利用這項投資做什麼呢？自 21 年以來，我們已經有了許多見解，可以將其擴大到更大的產能，這使我們能夠將乙烯轉化為丙烯。

And when you do that and optimize the asset configuration of the site around that investment, you can dramatically improve the earnings by $50 million to $100 million in EBIT over the cycle, and it also really reduces volatility because that's -- a lot of volatility comes out of the ethylene side of the equation. So it's a great investment, and it's a great payback. It's a very short payback for building this capability because we're leveraging an existing cracker to do it.

當你這樣做並圍繞該投資優化站點的資產配置時，你可以在整個週期內大幅提高息稅前利潤 5,000 萬美元至 1 億美元的收益，而且它還可以真正降低波動性，因為那是 - 很多波動都來自等式的乙烯方面。所以這是一項偉大的投資，而且回報也十分豐厚。建立這種能力的回報非常快，因為我們利用現有的破解器來實現這一點。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

Yeah, hi, good morning. I wanted to ask on the methanolysis investments and some of the comments you made about it seemed like you were thinking about you delayed a decision on Longview by maybe 2-years now and you're thinking about expanding Kingsport at some point in the future.

是的，你好，早安。我想問一下關於甲醇分解投資的問題，您對此發表的一些評論似乎表明，您考慮將對 Longview 的決定推遲了大約 2 年，並且您正在考慮在未來某個時候擴建 Kingsport。

So one, just curious if you could expand on if that right in terms of how you're thinking about it? And then two, what does that mean for Pepsi offtake that you have at the Longview facility? Does that move to Kingsport? Does that get pushed out? How should we think about that?

所以，我只是好奇您是否可以詳細說明一下您對此的看法？其次，這對你們在朗維尤工廠的百事可樂承銷業務意味著什麼？那會搬到金斯波特嗎？那會被推掉嗎？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So first of all, we're incredibly excited about how well the methanolysis plant is running. It's been a long journey from the beginning of this project to getting it built to getting the startup and working through a lot of construction issues. So it's great to see the plant run well. Incredibly excited to see the rate test the plant could get up to 105% as it is. And all of that is working really well, which also means our cost benefits this year relative to last year are on track to get that additional $50 million of improvement for the corporation.

首先，我們對甲醇分解工廠的運作狀況感到非常興奮。這個計畫從開始到建成、啟動並解決許多施工問題，這是一個漫長的過程。很高興看到工廠運作良好。令人難以置信的是，看到工廠的速率測試可以達到 105%。所有這些都進展順利，這也意味著我們今年相對於去年的成本效益有望為公司帶來額外的 5000 萬美元的改善。

It also -- when we sort of rate testing it and learning more and more about the facility with its better operational performance, we had become across a variety of insights with some very targeted debottlenecking investments that are very manageable. We can debottleneck the plant and have a line of sight to getting the plant to 130%, and we have some ideas to get beyond that.

而且，當我們對其進行速率測試並越來越多地了解具有更好營運性能的設施時，我們對一些非常有針對性的瓶頸消除投資有了各種各樣的見解，這些投資非常易於管理。我們可以消除工廠的瓶頸，並有望讓工廠的產能達到 130%，我們還有一些想法可以超越這個目標。

And so that's fantastic in this environment, right? In this environment where we're trying to always improve our -- lower our capital intensity and everything we do, and this is a capital-intensive project. I can now get 30% or maybe even more than that. I've improved the ROIC efficiency. So that is exciting.

所以在這種環境下這真是太棒了，對吧？在這種環境下，我們一直在努力改進——降低我們的資本密集度和我們所做的一切，這是一個資本密集型項目。我現在可以獲得 30% 甚至更多。我提高了 ROIC 效率。這很令人興奮。

The second is that additional capabilities, especially right now, allows us to continue to grow the EBITDA to that $200 million that we've told you about and keep going from this facility and have more continuous growth than when we cap out on the capacity of this plant in the original plan and wait for the next plant to start. So we consider keep the continuous growth going. And that also allows us to, in some sense, pull EBITDA forward from the second plant into the first plant as we sort of continue to fill it out.

第二，額外的產能，尤其是現在的產能，使我們能夠繼續將 EBITDA 增長到我們告訴過您的 2 億美元，並繼續從該工廠繼續發展，並且比我們在原計劃中限制該工廠的產能並等待下一家工廠啟動時實現更持續的增長。因此我們考慮保持持續成長。從某種意義上說，這也使我們能夠將 EBITDA 從第二家工廠拉到第一家工廠，因為我們將繼續填補它。

So that allows us to also have time to look at different options. So we are certainly not happy about losing the DOE grant, and we're highly engaged to try and get it back. That's highly uncertain process. And so we're focusing on what else can we do. And so this ability to debottleneck gives us the time to work on alternative ideas.

這樣我們就有時間考慮不同的選擇。因此，我們當然不會高興失去 DOE 撥款，並且我們會積極努力嘗試將其奪回。這是一個高度不確定的過程。因此，我們關注的是我們還能做什麼。因此，這種消除瓶頸的能力使我們有時間去研究其他想法。

And we have a lot of creative ideas about how to take scope out of the project. We have creative ideas of not just looking how to do it at Longview, but looking at three other sites where we might have some better advantages and how to be efficient.

對於如何擴大專案範圍，我們有很多富有創意的想法。我們有創造性的想法，不僅研究如何在朗維尤做到這一點，還研究其他三個我們可能具有更好優勢和如何提高效率的網站。

And so there's lots of things going on. We can't talk about the details of all that right now because we're in the middle of doing some of it. But we're pretty excited about the potential to sort of optimize the footprint and find ways to actually pull forward some benefits that we would have had to wait for the second plant.

因此有很多事情正在發生。我們現在無法談論所有這些細節，因為我們正在做其中的一些事情。但我們對優化足跡的潛力感到非常興奮，並找到了真正實現一些我們原本需要等待第二家工廠實現的利益的方法。

When it comes to contracts with Pepsi, our contract with Pepsi is still intact and we're still confident that they're committed to working with us as we sort of pursue all these different options. So we feel sort of good about that. And we -- and the other thing I'd note is we're seeing accelerated demand in some cases with some of our customers who are finding mechanical recycling isn't working well on the rPET side for food-grade packaging applications. And so we're getting more and more confident about that fill out.

談到與百事可樂的合同，我們與百事可樂的合同仍然有效，我們仍然相信，在我們尋求所有這些不同的選擇時，他們會致力於與我們合作。所以我們對此感覺很好。而且我們 — — 我想指出的另一件事是，在某些情況下，我們看到一些客戶的需求加速增長，他們發現機械回收對於食品級包裝應用的 rPET 方面效果不佳。因此，我們對這填寫越來越有信心。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley

文森安德魯斯（Vincent Andrews），摩根士丹利

Thank you, and good morning. Mark, was there a particular trigger. It sounds like in July, all of a sudden, the customer dialogue flipped. And so is there something in particular that happened or they were hearing from their customers or just how do you sort of deconstruct exactly what happened, when it happened?

謝謝，早安。馬克，是否有一個特定的觸發因素。聽起來好像在七月份，客戶對話突然發生了轉變。那麼是否發生了什麼特別的事情，或者他們從客戶那裡聽到了什麼，或者您如何確切地解構發生了什麼事情，以及它發生的時間？

And as you look forward into the balance of the year and into next year, what's the catalyst path or what are the events that are going to need to happen for your customers to start feeling differently about their business and about purchasing? Is it just the end of the trade war, uncertainty, is it lower interest rates?

當您展望今年餘下的時間和明年時，什麼樣的催化路徑或需要發生哪些事件才能讓您的客戶對他們的業務和購買產生不同的感受？這只是貿易戰的結束、不確定性，還是利率降低？

What's really changed? And what's the path from here?

到底發生了什麼變化？從這裡出發的路是怎麼樣的？

Yeah. That's a great question. So I'd say the insights developed through the month of June into July as we were working with our customers and trying to understand what their views were. The market that's most impacted is consumer durables, which you can imagine are caught up in the trade war since the vast majority of it were made in places like China or Southeast Asia and imported here, and our supply chain in serving that market is incredibly long as we make a lot -- make the products that go into those applications here in the US, send them to Asia. They get made, the product comes back, so you've got a 9-, 12-month supply chain on top of this that we're trying to manage.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。所以我想說，這些見解是在 6 月到 7 月逐漸形成的，當時我們正在與客戶合作，試圖了解他們的觀點。受影響最嚴重的市場是耐用消費品市場，你可以想像這些產品會捲入貿易戰，因為絕大多數耐用消費品是在中國或東南亞等地生產並進口到這裡，而我們服務於該市場的供應鏈非常長，因為我們在美國生產大量用於這些應用的產品，然後將它們運往亞洲。他們生產完產品後，又返回，因此，我們還需要管理長達 9 個月、12 個月的供應鏈。

And so I think that the trade pause allowed everyone in the second quarter to move material around ahead of potential escalation on July 9. And so everyone did that. I mean every company, like I said earlier, from retailers to brands and manufacturers to people like ourselves. Because of North America, we had to move things to different places like Asia when we're making it here, that sort of factor into our supply chain being a bit longer in our need to move things being a bit higher because of where we are making it in the US and the risk of retaliation.

因此，我認為貿易暫停使得第二季度的每個人都能夠在 7 月 9 日可能升級的局勢之前轉移材料。所以每個人都這麼做了。我指的是每家公司，就像我之前說的，從零售商到品牌和製造商，再到像我們這樣的人。由於北美的原因，當我們在這裡生產產品時，我們必須將產品轉移到亞洲等不同的地方，這種因素導致我們的供應鏈更長一些，因為我們在美國生產，而且存在遭到報復的風險，因此我們需要將產品轉移到其他地方。

So you're working through all those dynamics with your customers. And I think that as they look to the back half of the year, they became cautious. I think the words were holding orders as opposed to canceling. I think it's important to say, as a way to sort of wait and see how all the trade situation was going to resolve itself one way or another, and then they have to naturally factor that into where they think consumer demand is going to go and how they sort of either serve those markets or not, because while people are moving inventory around all over the planet, they're also trying not to increase inventory too much in total because they are unsure about the back half economy when the consumer is more likely to be impacted, right? I mean these tariffs at these rates are likely to show up in inflation.

因此，您要與客戶一起解決所有這些動態問題。我認為，當他們展望下半年時，他們會變得謹慎。我認為這些詞指的是保留訂單而不是取消訂單。我認為重要的是，作為一種等待的方式，觀察所有的貿易局勢將如何以某種方式自行解決，然後他們必須自然地將其納入他們認為消費者需求將走向何方以及他們如何服務於這些市場，因為當人們在全球範圍內轉移庫存時，他們也在試圖不要將庫存總量增加太多，因為他們不確定後半部分經濟，何時對消費者更有可能受到影響，何時對消費者來說嗎？我的意思是，這些稅率的關稅很可能會導致通貨膨脹。

I know there's a lot of debate about that. But the margins, at least in this -- in the consumer durable industry, pretty thin when it comes to the manufacturers in Asia, the retailers here. So some portion of this has to get passed on. It can't be absorbed. And even if it's absorbed, people are going to have to lay off people, which impacts the economy. So somewhere in the world. So this dynamic is going on there.

我知道對此存在很多爭論。但至少在耐用消費品產業，對於亞洲的製造商和零售商來說，利潤相當薄弱。因此，其中的一部分必須被傳遞下去。它無法被吸收。即使吸收了，人們也不得不裁員，這將對經濟產生影響。所以在世界的某個地方。所以這種動態正在那裡發生。

I think it's very much going on in the auto industry, plenty of news flow on that, but probably likely some prebuy there that the auto companies have to think about as far as what they think demand is going to do in the back half for them and either the Building Construction segment, same dynamics, obviously, weak and challenged.

我認為汽車行業的情況非常類似，有很多關於這方面的新聞，但汽車公司可能必須考慮一些預購情況，以了解下半年的需求將如何影響建築施工領域，同樣的動態顯然是疲軟且充滿挑戰的。

And that half of our revenue is sort of where we're seeing these impacts. Customers are working with us. And I think what we've got in our forecast represents the caution in July. We're assuming things get a little bit better in August and September, with some of this trade certainty coming into place, and we're just going to have to see how it goes.

我們的一半收入都受到了這些影響。客戶正在與我們合作。我認為我們的預測代表了七月的謹慎態度。我們預計 8 月和 9 月情況會有所好轉，部分貿易確定性將逐漸顯現，我們只需要觀察情況如何發展。

But the key for us is focus on what you can control cost, cash, driving methanolysis forward, finding capital efficiency keeping our CapEx low, et cetera, and positioning us, I think, reasonably well for earnings to be materially better next year versus this year on the actions that we're controlling and taking.

但對我們來說，關鍵是要關注可以控制的成本、現金、推動甲醇分解向前發展、尋找資本效率以保持較低的資本支出等等，並且我認為，透過我們正在控制和採取的行動，我們可以合理地定位我們，以便明年的盈利比今年有實質性的改善。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Salvator Tiano。

Yes, thank you very much. So I wanted to check on the autos end markets. I mean you and some other chemical companies today and yesterday did flag that they were weak in Q2 and Q3 could also remain weak. But that seems to be in contrast with both trade consultants and what some of the auto suppliers are saying so far this earnings season.

是的，非常感謝。所以我想檢查一下汽車終端市場。我的意思是，您和其他一些化學公司今天和昨天確實表示，它們在第二季表現疲軟，第三季也可能保持疲軟。但這似乎與貿易顧問和一些汽車供應商在本財報季迄今的說法相反。

So can you provide a little bit more color on where you're seeing the weakness? And specifically in the case of Eastman, of course, is it more on the aftermarket films or more, for example, on the interlayers or any other products?

那麼，您能否更詳細地說明您認為的弱點在哪裡？當然，就伊士曼而言，它更專注於售後薄膜，還是更專注於中間膜或任何其他產品？

Yeah, good question. So on the aftermarket side, Q2 was a solid quarter. So we saw good performance in North America, a little bit more challenged in China. But overall, the aftermarket held up reasonably well in Q2 for the interlayer business or the aftermarket or the sort of automotive coating business saw some challenges as producers around the world, given the tariff announcements were moderating production rates in preparation for where demand may go, right? There's a big question on, once again, how much of this tariff is going to get passed on to consumers and inflation and impact demand in the back half of the year.

是的，好問題。因此，從售後市場方面來看，第二季表現穩健。因此，我們在北美看到了良好的表現，但在中國面臨的挑戰更大一些。但總體而言，第二季的售後市場表現相當不錯，無論是夾層業務還是售後市場，還是汽車塗料業務，都面臨著一些挑戰，因為考慮到關稅公告，世界各地的生產商都在調整生產率，為需求的走向做準備，對嗎？現在又有一個大問題：有多少關稅會轉嫁給消費者，有多少會引發通貨膨脹，又有多少會影響下半年的需求。

So you're trying to worry about how much cars you're producing for the back half of the year. So you got to be a little careful on that front. And then you've got the dynamic of the pull forward of people buying cars ahead of the potential tariff increases.

所以你要擔心下半年要生產多少車。所以你在這方面要小心一點。然後你會看到人們在潛在的關稅上調之前提前購買汽車的動態。

So I think from what we're seeing, we started the year expecting the auto market to be sort of flat relative to last year, where now our view is sort of low single digits down, which is principally in the back half of the year as opposed to the first half.

因此，我認為，從我們所看到的情況來看，我們在年初預計汽車市場與去年相比將持平，但現在我們的看法是汽車市場將出現個位數的低位下降，這主要發生在下半年，而不是上半年。

So I'm not sure we're that different from what I've seen from other car companies and sort of the underlying market assumptions. If it turns out to be flat in production in the back half of the year, it's going to be upside for us relative to what's in the forecast. So I hope those people that are sort of predicting that are correct.

所以我不確定我們與我所看到的其他汽車公司以及潛在的市場假設有何不同。如果下半年的產量持平，那麼相對於預測而言，這將是有利的。所以我希望那些預測的人是對的。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. In your AFP business, your prices were up 4% year-over-year. Where did that pricing strength come from either by sector or by product line? And in your Fibers business, can you discuss the current state of tariffs and whether that's an ongoing impediment to your business or whether it isn't?

非常感謝。在您的 AFP 業務中，您的價格比去年同期上漲了 4%。無論是按行業還是按產品線，這種定價優勢來自哪裡？在您的纖維業務中，您能否討論一下當前的關稅狀況，以及這是否會對您的業務造成持續的阻礙？

Sure, Jeff. So on the AFP question, most of the increase in price was driven by our cost pass-through contracts in our care chemicals business where we buy some raw materials that just have a lot of volatility to them that go into the product. So we have very steady margins in supplying our customers in that space. The fatty alcohols that we buy has sort of bounced up and down, and that's really what that 4% is primarily driven by.

當然，傑夫。因此，關於法新社的問題，價格上漲的大部分原因是我們護理化學品業務中的成本轉嫁合同，我們購買一些用於產品的波動性很大的原材料。因此，我們在該領域的供貨利潤非常穩定。我們購買的脂肪醇的價格一直在上下波動，而這正是 4% 成長的主要原因。

One of the great things about the AFP business that has continued to be proven and valued deeply by us is the stability of the price cost relationship in that business across the portfolio, quite a bit of it is in cost pass-through contracts, keeping that stable, which takes to -- which is great, by the way, in removing a lot of debate and tension with your customers in procurement, which is -- let's just focus on how we grow together.

AFP 業務的一大優點是，該業務在整個產品組合中價格成本關係的穩定性，這一點已得到我們的不斷證明和高度重視，其中很大一部分是透過成本轉嫁合約來實現的，保持這種穩定，順便說一句，這非常好，可以消除採購過程中與客戶之間的許多爭論和緊張關係，也就是說，讓我們只關注如何共同成長。

We don't need to continue debating how raw materials go up and down. And so it's part of why you see AFP performing well. When it comes to the Fibers business and tariffs, the principal impact of tariffs inside the Fibers business on a full year basis is certainly the Naia textile business, right? So those has always been expected to decline to some degree with market and capacity being added in China, et cetera.

我們不需要繼續爭論原物料價格如何上漲和下跌。這也是為什麼法新社表現良好的原因之一。說到纖維業務和關稅，全年來看，關稅對纖維業務的主要影響肯定是 Naia 紡織業務，對嗎？因此，隨著中國市場和產能的增加等，這些數字一直預計會下降。

But the textile business was a source of growth and the margins were pretty good. And so that offset some of the dynamics in the tow business. And it's been extremely helpful in the last 4-years in improving that segment.

但紡織業務是成長源泉，利潤率相當高。這樣就抵消了拖車業務的一些動態。在過去的四年裡，它對改善這一領域起到了極其重要的作用。

So what's unusual about this year is we're obviously dealing with some issues in tow. But the textile business was impacted, most of that sold in China and then made in textiles that serve the world. And we saw the overall textile market slow down dramatically from tariffs because of the cost of selling fashion goods in the US against those tariffs.

因此，今年的不同尋常之處在於我們顯然正在處理一些問題。但紡織業務受到了影響，其中大部分紡織品在中國銷售，然後生產出來供應給世界各地。我們看到，由於關稅的影響，美國時尚商品的銷售成本上升，導致整個紡織品市場急劇放緩。

So that industry was already weak last year, but weakened further. So end market demand has come off, customers that we have in China to become more cautious, and that's translated to about a $20 million problem we think, for the year, that spread across 2Q through 4Q, impacting the Fibers business on the tariff side. On a short-term basis, there is some dynamics of some tow being pulled forward into Q2 in Europe to get ahead of potential tariff risks, that will sort of level out. So it's not a full year impact, but it's just a timing impact.

因此，該行業去年就已經很弱了，而且進一步減弱。因此，終端市場需求下降，我們在中國的客戶變得更加謹慎，我們認為，這將導致今年出現約 2000 萬美元的問題，這個問題會蔓延到第二季度到第四季度，對纖維業務的關稅方面產生影響。從短期來看，歐洲一些拖船將提前拖入第二季度，以避免潛在的關稅風險，但這種趨勢將會趨於平穩。因此，這不是全年的影響，而只是時間上的影響。

Okay. And then you described in your remarks trying to lower working capital by $400 million from where we are at mid-year. And you talk about the earnings penalties this year for changing your operating rates. So as a base case, I get it, earnings should rise next year as you move up to more normal operating rates. But is it also true that what should happen is that cash flow next year should decrease.

好的。然後您在評論中描述了我們試圖將年中營運資金降低 4 億美元的情況。您也談到了今年因改變營業費率而產生的收益損失。因此，作為一個基本情況，我明白，隨著營運率上升到更正常的水平，明年的收益應該會增加。但明年的現金流確實會減少嗎？

That is if you're pulling the cash flow forward into this year, does that mean that as the base case, your free cash flow next year will be -- or I'm sorry, your cash flow from operations will be less than $1 billion, if there's no change in the business conditions.

也就是說，如果你將現金流提前到今年，這是否意味著，作為基本情況，如果業務條件沒有變化，你明年的自由現金流將是——或者對不起，你的經營現金流將少於 10 億美元。

So Jeff, thanks for the question. Obviously, to your point, I think the last statement that you just made, it depends on your outlook and the assumption. I think, as Mark has described, both from the economic lens as well as our assumptions is that we actually think that you can get to a more stable environment as we see tariffs, et cetera, unfold.

傑夫，謝謝你的提問。顯然，對於你的觀點，我認為你剛才所說的最後一句話取決於你的觀點和假設。我認為，正如馬克所描述的，從經濟角度和我們的假設來看，隨著關稅等政策的實施，我們實際上認為可以進入一個更穩定的環境。

With the actions that we're taking in the first half and the timing, obviously, being here at mid-year, we can't fully optimize our working capital scenario. And actually, working capital is a net headwind this year as we look at it overall compared to what we built in the first half and what we're taking out in the second half. So my belief is the $1 billion is the platform at which we'll be able to build off of with higher cash earnings and the potential to still build and optimize our working capital.

鑑於我們在上半年採取的行動和時間安排，顯然，由於正值年中，我們無法完全優化我們的營運資金狀況。實際上，從我們上半年建立的營運資本和下半年取出的營運資本來看，今年營運資本大致上是淨逆風。因此，我相信 10 億美元是我們能夠利用更高現金收益並繼續建立和優化營運資本的潛力的基礎平台。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Thank you. Good morning, Mark, just on Q4 reading your prepared comments, it sounds like you're guiding to similar to Q3 of around $1.25. Is that fair?

謝謝。早上好，馬克。剛剛讀了你關於第四季的準備評論，聽起來你預期的第四季利潤與第三季的利潤差不多，約1.25美元。這樣合理嗎？

Hey David, I think that's directionally correct. I mean the -- normally, we have seasonality as you all know from Q3 to Q4 because Q3 is normally a strong quarter. Obviously, it's not with all the factors that I've described on decline and expected demand in the asset utilization. So when you get to Q4, we're very aggressive in our asset management in Q3. So you're going to get a utilization tailwind because it won't be as aggressive in Q4.

嘿，大衛，我認為這個方向是正確的。我的意思是——通常，我們有從第三季到第四季的季節性，正如大家所知，因為第三季通常是一個強勁的季度。顯然，這並不包括我所描述的資產利用率下降和預期需求的所有因素。因此，當進入第四季度時，我們在第三季度的資產管理方面非常積極。因此，您將獲得利用率的順風，因為它在第四季度不會那麼激進。

The seasonality that normally occurs has already been put into Q3 effectively. And so we expect things to be somewhat similar. We got to get through Q3 to be perfectly honest, David, with all the volatility with the trade and see how it all sort of settles out and impacts the markets. But our current expectation is what you said.

通常出現的季節性已經有效地融入第三季。因此我們預期事情會有些類似。坦白說，大衛，我們必須度過第三季度，看看貿易的所有波動如何結束，以及它如何影響市場。但我們目前的期望就是您說的話。

Got it. Understood. And Mark, your volume outlook is a little more severe than what we've heard from other -- from some of your peers this earnings season. Do you think that's due to your business mix, your conservatism or maybe something else?

知道了。明白了。馬克，你對銷量的預期比我們從其他同行——這個財報季的一些同行——那裡聽到的要嚴峻一些。您認為這是由於您的業務組合、您的保守性還是其他原因造成的？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I think that -- when you think about what's going on in the dynamic of Q2 to Q3, in the mid-single digits, there are multiple components, and it depends on the business that you're looking at. And it's important to actually sort of frame it correctly. So if you look at Q2 to Q3 and add back utilization headwind for $50 million, we're basically flat sequentially from Q2 to Q3 when you back out the utilization headwind. And then you're okay, what's going on underneath the surface of that. Well, there are two moving parts, right?

我認為 - 當您思考第二季到第三季的動態時，在中等個位數中，有多個組成部分，這取決於您所關注的業務。事實上，正確地建造它非常重要。因此，如果您查看第二季度到第三季度的數據，並將利用率逆風增加 5000 萬美元，那麼當您消除利用率逆風時，從第二季度到第三季度，我們基本上是持平的。然後你就知道表面之下到底發生了什麼事。嗯，有兩個活動部件，對嗎？

Chemical Intermediates is getting better by greater than $30 million, which means -- especially Fibers is going to be down by $30 million within the guide that we're talking about. So when you think about Advanced Materials and the mid-single-digit decline we're expecting there, what I'd say about half of that is expected market decline, and the other half is this sort of prebuy dynamic of some materials in Tritan, performance films, medical, polyesters being pulled ahead of tariff risk into Q2.

化學中間體的成長超過了 3000 萬美元，這意味著——尤其是纖維，在我們所討論的範圍內將下降 3000 萬美元。因此，當您考慮先進材料和我們預期的中等個位數下降時，我想說其中大約一半是預期的市場下降，另一半是 Tritan、性能薄膜、醫療、聚酯等某些材料的預購動態，它們在第二季度受到關稅風險的影響。

So when you have it there and then the orders don't occur in July for that, you've got that decline. So I'd say it's about half and half market decline, which I think is more in line with what we're hearing from specialty peers, the market participants and then the other half is this prebuy thing.

因此，當您在那裡有貨但 7 月沒有訂單時，就會出現下降。所以我想說，大約一半是市場下滑，我認為這更符合我們從專業同行、市場參與者那裡聽到的說法，另一半是預購的事情。

I'd also note that in this segment, especially when you think about it, two-thirds of this is consumer discretionary, right, between autos, consumer durables and B&C and those are the most impacted markets. They're incredibly valuable markets to us. So as the volume comes off, it hurts. But when the volume comes back, it's incredibly compelling. So that's how I think about the AM part. The Fibers part, I would pretty much say is all prebuy in the moderation we're expecting from Q2 to Q3.

我還要指出的是，在這個領域，尤其是當你考慮它時，其中三分之二是非必需消費品，對吧，包括汽車、耐用消費品和 B&C，這些是受影響最大的市場。對我們來說，它們是極為寶貴的市場。因此，當音量降低時，就會造成傷害。但當音量恢復時，它就變得非常引人注目。這就是我對 AM 部分的看法。對於 Fibers 部分，我想說，我們預計從第二季到第三季都會進行適度預購。

In AFP, this is sort of more normal for its decline. So normal ag seasonality coming off, timing of HTF projects that got completed in Q2 instead of Q3 and a little bit of prebuy in some places is what's behind their mid-single digits. So again, you back out the prebuy and the HTF timing and the market's moderating in a very normal way.

對法新社來說，這算是其衰退比較正常的現象。因此，正常的農業季節性因素、HTF 專案在第二季而不是第三季完成的時間以及某些地方的少量預購是導致其銷售額達到中等個位數的原因。因此，再次，您退出預購和 HTF 時機，市場就會以非常正常的方式緩和。

So I think that when we look at it, I don't think we're from an end market point of view, sort of misaligned too much, but we do have exposure, especially in Advanced Materials to these sort of very sensitive markets. So what's going on in the trade environment.

因此，我認為，當我們看待它時，我認為從終端市場的角度來看，我們並沒有太大的偏差，但我們確實有接觸，特別是在先進材料領域，接觸這些非常敏感的市場。那麼貿易環境目前狀況如何？

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Good morning. If I could just follow up on that. Are you sizing the pre-buy at around $20 million or so benefit 2Q versus 3Q? Any color there would be helpful.

早安.如果我可以跟進的話。您是否認為第二季與第三季的預購收益約為 2,000 萬美元左右？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hey, Frank, that's probably directionally correct. When you follow the math of what I just put out there between Fibers and AM, that's going to get you to sort of that number.

嘿，弗蘭克，這可能在方向上是正確的。當你按照我剛才在光纖和 AM 之間提出的數學公式計算時，你就會得到這個數字。

All right. Great. And on the $1.25 point estimate for 3Q, you guys put out a $0.20 range for 2Q, and clearly, the commentary based on tariffs, et cetera, is that there's a wide range of outcomes for 3Q. This $1.25, is that kind of at the low end of the range that you're thinking, mid of the range you're thinking? How much of a range in your mind do you have in terms of how 3Q can play out?

好的。偉大的。關於第三季 1.25 美元的點位估計，你們對第二季給出了 0.20 美元的範圍，顯然，基於關稅等因素的評論表明，第三季的結果範圍很廣。這個 1.25 美元，是您所想的範圍的低端還是中間？對於第三季的走勢，您心中的預期範圍有多大？

That's a great question, Frank. We put the word around before $1.25. So we see upside and risk to that number based on all the trade dynamics that we have in here. In some parts of the bridge, I'd say, are pretty predictable. So the asset utilization is in our control. We're pretty clear on what that's going to be. Our cost reduction's in our control, clear what that's going to be.

這是一個很好的問題，弗蘭克。我們在1.25美元之前就預測到了這個數字。因此，根據目前掌握的所有貿易動態，我們認為這個數字既有上漲空間，也有風險。我想說，這座橋的某些部分是相當可預測的。因此資產利用率在我們的控制範圍內。我們非常清楚那會是什麼。我們的成本削減在我們的控制範圍內，我們很清楚具體是多少。

We've had phenomenal commercial excellence over the last 4-years in defending our price cost in our specialties and our market share being held incredibly well over the last 4-years. And we certainly expect to continue that excellence in the back half of this year and into 2026. So when I look at all those things that are, to some degree, in our control, methanolysis running better, et cetera.

過去四年來，我們在商業上取得了顯著的成就，在捍衛我們專業領域的價格成本方面取得了顯著的成就，並且在過去四年中，我們的市場份額保持得非常好。我們當然希望在今年下半年和 2026 年繼續保持這種卓越的表現。因此，當我看到所有這些在某種程度上在我們控制範圍內的事情時，甲醇分解運行得更好，等等。

We feel pretty good about the quality of our guidance. But to your point that we just mentioned and the comments I've made in this call, predicting demand in customer and consumer behavior in this world right now, there's no predicting it.

我們對我們的指導品質感到非常滿意。但是，正如我們剛才提到的觀點以及我在這次電話會議上發表的評論，預測目前世界上客戶和消費者行為的需求是無法預測的。

And so we did put a range on it. But there is certainly uncertainty in either direction, right? If people really calm down, we could be up in volume. With these higher trade announcements and rates that just got announced through this week have impact on the market, on people's behavior, then it could be down. We just don't know.

所以我們確實設定了一個範圍。但無論哪個方向一定都存在不確定性，對嗎？如果人們真的冷靜下來，我們就可以提高音量。由於本週剛宣布的這些更高的貿易公告和利率對市場、對人們的行為產生影響，因此價格可能會下跌。我們只是不知道。

And frankly, no one does. There's no way to predict it.

坦白說，沒有人會這麼做。沒有辦法預測它。

All right. So a wide range around -- best guess today is $1.25, but there's probably a bigger range around it than there was the range around the 2Q is kind of what I'm hearing right now?

好的。因此，目前的最佳猜測是 1.25 美元左右，但其波動範圍可能比第二季度左右的波動範圍更大，這有點像我現在聽到的？

I don't know if it's bigger than that range. But I mean, I really think we need to get through this next month. Obviously, if we see things really changing in either direction, we'll update people at a conference somewhere along the way.

我不知道它是否比該範圍更大。但我的意思是，我真的認為我們需要在下個月度過這個難關。顯然，如果我們發現事情確實在某個方向上發生變化，我們會在某個會議上向人們通報最新情況。

But right now, we're in the middle of trying to digest all these announcements that happened last week and this week. So not just us, every customer we have, every retailer, every consumer are trying to figure out, what does this mean for me right now and what am I going to do in this context. So we just got to see how it plays out.

但現在，我們正處於消化上周和本週發布的所有公告的過程中。所以不僅僅是我們，我們的每一位客戶、每一位零售商、每一位消費者都在試圖弄清楚，這對我現在意味著什麼，以及在這種情況下我該做什麼。所以我們只需要看看結果如何。

Aleksey Yefremov, [KeyCorp]

阿列克謝·葉夫列莫夫，[KeyCorp]

Good morning, Mark, to me, you sound less optimistic about methanolysis sales this year and at the same time, more optimistic about next year. Could you maybe talk about this contrast, why there is this difference and any sort of signs of confidence you have into this ramp in methanolysis next year?

早安，馬克，對我來說，你對今年的甲醇分解銷售不太樂觀，但同時對明年的銷售比較樂觀。您能否談談這種對比，為什麼會有這種差異，以及您對明年甲醇分解的成長有何信心？

Sure. So it's a great question. Obviously, in our prepared remarks, we've acknowledged that things are going a bit slower. The interest in Renew -- I think, in recycled content is still very much there from an end market point of view, both in the specialties, which is what the purpose of this current plant is aimed at serving as well as rPET, which is partially going to be served off of this facility as a way to fill the assets. And then as we migrate and upgrade specialties, we'll move that PET to the second plant.

當然。這是一個很好的問題。顯然，我們在準備好的發言中承認事情進展得有點慢。我認為，從終端市場的角度來看，對 Renew 的興趣仍然很大，無論是在特種產品方面（這是當前工廠的目的）還是在 rPET 方面，部分產品將由該工廠提供，以填補資產。然後，隨著我們遷移和升級專業技術，我們將把 PET 轉移到第二家工廠。

But when I look at the overall underlying dynamics about demand, you are attached to the underlying market, right? So we've proven in Tritan over the last -- over more than a decade that we can grow well above the market by being BPA free and substituting out other the materials and taking market share and growing incredibly well. And that's true. But there's still some connection you have to the market.

但是當我觀察需求的整體潛在動態時，您是與潛在市場緊密相連的，對嗎？因此，在過去的十多年裡，我們已經證明 Tritan 可以讓我們透過不含 BPA 並取代其他材料，佔據市場份額，實現遠超市場的成長。事實確實如此。但你與市場仍有一些連結。

So if the market is incredibly challenged, it's going to moderate the rate at which your customers launch new products that have your Renew content in it, which we've talked about. So that's the short-term dynamic of everything we've been talking about in this call when it creates that challenge in durables, it slows down the rate at which people are adopting new features and launching new products in that space.

因此，如果市場面臨巨大挑戰，它將減緩您的客戶推出包含您的 Renew 內容的新產品的速度，正如我們已經討論過的那樣。因此，這就是我們在這次電話會議上討論的所有問題的短期動態，當它給耐用品帶來挑戰時，它會減慢人們採用新功能和在該領域推出新產品的速度。

Even true in luxury cosmetics, that market is also a bit challenged and moving a little bit slower as another key market. But what I would say is, we're not seeing any signs where suddenly, people think plastic waste is good, right? A lot of people are debating climate, but I haven't seen anyone debating the plastic waste and wanting it out of their environment and not impacting their lives.

即使是奢侈化妝品，作為另一個關鍵市場，該市場也面臨一些挑戰，發展速度也稍慢一些。但我想說的是，我們沒有看到任何跡象表明人們突然認為塑膠垃圾是好的，對吧？很多人都在討論氣候問題，但我還沒有看到有人討論塑膠垃圾，並希望將其從他們的環境中清除，不影響他們的生活。

And so that's not going away. The rate at which customers want to solve this problem when they're incredibly economically challenged this year from tariffs, what raw materials they are buying or market demand that's not that strong. The rate at which they adopt is slowing down.

所以它不會消失。當客戶今年面臨來自關稅、所購買原材料或市場需求不那麼強勁等巨大經濟挑戰時，他們希望以多快的速度解決這個問題。他們採用的速度正在放緩。

But as you get to economic stability, I'm pretty confident that this issue is going to be important and the responsibility of the brands have to address their plastic waste in the environment is going to be there. There's going to be continued pressure and there's lots of regulation that's still happening in Europe and the US driving it. So in this context, we still have over 100 customers on the specialty side committed and buying and paying premiums. We're just not ramping up orders as fast.

但隨著經濟穩定，我非常有信心這個問題將變得重要，品牌必須承擔起解決環境中塑膠垃圾問題的責任。壓力將會持續存在，而且歐洲和美國仍將推出大量監管措施。因此，在這種背景下，我們仍然有超過 100 名專業客戶承諾購買並支付保費。我們只是沒有那麼快地增加訂單。

We're not seeing order cancellations. We're just not seeing the ramp up as fast as we'd like. And as I mentioned on the rPETside earlier, we're picking up more interest in demand for next year. We don't have it available this year because we're still in the middle of switching our Tritan line over to making PET where we'd be selling it now. But as we bring that on in the fall, and those -- two of our largest brands, in fact, on the rPET side committed to meaningful volume next year.

我們沒有看到訂單取消的情況。我們只是沒有看到像我們希望的那樣快速的成長。正如我之前在 rPETside 上提到的，我們對明年的需求越來越感興趣。我們今年沒有供應，因為我們仍在將 Tritan 生產線轉換為生產 PET，我們現在會在 PET 上銷售它。但隨著我們在秋季推出這款產品，事實上，我們在 rPET 方面的兩個最大品牌承諾明年將實現有意義的銷售。

And what's most interesting about that is it's because mechanical rPET is not working in some of their applications. They're having performance issues, color issues, integrity issues around the product on the mechanical side. And so they need chemical recycled product, which is identical to virgin to have recycled content for it not to be brown or yellow relative to other products on the shelf or not being able to make bottles quickly enough because of integrity issues, et cetera.

最有趣的是，這是因為機械 rPET 在某些應用中不起作用。他們在產品機械方面遇到了性能問題、顏色問題和完整性問題。因此，他們需要化學回收產品，該產品與原始產品相同，具有回收成分，不會相對於貨架上的其他產品呈現棕色或黃色，或者由於完整性問題而無法足夠快地製造瓶子，等等。

So that confirmation that we have a differentiated value proposition in rPET with chemical recycling, and we're the only player in the world that can do it effectively. Well, I think -- still think this is going to be a big competitive advantage for us and create a lot of value in the future.

這證實了我們在 rPET 化學回收方面擁有差異化的價值主張，而我們是世界上唯一一家能夠有效做到這一點的公司。嗯，我認為——仍然認為這將是我們的一大競爭優勢，並在未來創造許多價值。

Thanks, Mark. And if you had to guess next year, Fiber is flat, up or down in terms of earnings?

謝謝，馬克。如果您要猜測明年 Fiber 的收益會持平、上升還是下降？

Great question. Thank you for it. It's one we're spending a lot of time on and focusing on in the Fibers business and the decline we're seeing this year is certainly more than we expected at the beginning of the year. And to sort of frame the Fibers conversation, I want to sort of unpack what's going on within the segment. One question already came up, which is what's going on in the segment, and I highlighted textiles as a $20 million headwind within the segment.

好問題。謝謝你。我們在纖維業務上投入了大量的時間和精力，今年我們看到的下滑幅度肯定比我們年初預期的要大。為了建立關於 Fibers 的對話，我想分析一下該部分中發生的事情。已經出現了一個問題，即該領域正在發生什麼，我強調紡織品是該領域 2000 萬美元的逆風。

In addition to that, there's about a $20 million asset utilization headwind as we're pulling inventory down here to free up cash, just like we're doing in AM and other parts of the portfolio. And I would say the utilization impact here is meaningful for the segment at $20 million. And then there's about $10 million to $15 million of higher energy costs that's not covered by the cost pass-through contracts.

除此之外，由於我們正在減少庫存以釋放現金，因此資產利用率面臨約 2000 萬美元的阻力，就像我們在 AM 和投資組合的其他部分所做的那樣。我想說的是，這裡的利用率影響對於 2000 萬美元的細分市場來說意義重大。另外還有大約 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元的較高能源成本未被成本轉嫁合約所涵蓋。

So when you look at that, put those all together, that's about 40% roughly of sort of where the decline is headed, roughly. And that gets you to thinking about those businesses. And both the asset utilization comes back as a tailwind next year as long as we have growth in textiles and Aventa and other things. So the vast majority of that utilization headwind is before you get to spinning tow and the making of the plastic and the stream that feeds into it. So any growth anywhere in the portfolio on cellulosic plastic, we'll actually -- we sort of turn that $20 million into a tailwind for Fibers.

因此，當您將這些放在一起看時，您會發現下降幅度約為 40%。這讓你開始思考這些業務。只要紡織業、Aventa 和其他行業有所成長，明年資產利用率就會回升。因此，絕大多數利用逆風都發生在紡絲、製造塑膠和輸送塑膠的水流之前。因此，只要纖維素塑膠產品組合中的任何增長，我們實際上都會將這 2000 萬美元轉化為 Fibers 的順風。

And then you've got recovery in the -- textile business that we are moving with our customers outside of China as they're trying to manage their tariff exposures as well as winning business and new accounts around the world and finding ways to get some of our Chinese business back as sort of tariffs have settled a bit.

然後你會看到紡織業務的復甦，我們正在與中國以外的客戶一起轉移，因為他們正在試圖管理他們的關稅風險，並在世界各地贏得業務和新客戶，並在關稅有所穩定的情況下尋找方法來恢復我們的部分中國業務。

So all that sort of becomes an offset relative to whatever happens in the remainder of the decline this year, which is tow. And on the tow side, what I'd say is we don't see a shift in market, still declining 1% to 2%. We always expected losing some volume as the Chinese capacity came online and everyone had to adjust their market shares to sort of make room for that capacity.

因此，所有這些都將成為今年剩餘下降趨勢的一種抵消，也就是拖累。就拖車方面而言，我想說的是，我們沒有看到市場轉變，仍然下降了 1% 至 2%。隨著中國產能上線，我們一直預期銷量會下降，而且每個人都必須調整自己的市佔率來為這些產能騰出空間。

But the volume is turning out to be worse than that because there's a bunch of destocking going on as we talked about in prior calls where people are holding a lot of safety stock and now are feeling a little more safe about not needing as much safety stock and destocking and they were clearly holding a lot more inventory than we expected.

但實際情況比這更糟，因為正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣，人們正在進行大量的去庫存活動，他們持有大量的安全庫存，現在他們感覺更安全了，不需要那麼多的安全庫存和去庫存，而且他們持有的庫存顯然比我們預期的要多得多。

But there's another dynamic going on as well, which is we had some medium-sized customers that were very aggressive in wanting to grow their market share in the cigarette industry, and we're adding capacity for that and building inventory to fill that capacity and signing contracts that committed them to grow that volume with us and having our support.

但還有另一種動態，那就是我們有一些中型客戶，他們非常積極地希望擴大其在煙草行業的市場份額，我們正在為此增加產能，建立庫存以填補這一產能，並簽署合同，承諾與我們一起增加產量並獲得我們的支持。

But unfortunately, these customers were not successful in growing their share and actually ended up losing a little bit of share so far. They're obviously not happy about that, and they're trying to take their share back. But in this current situation, they're trying to destock the inventory that they built for that growth, it's not playing out.

但不幸的是，這些客戶未能成功擴大其份額，實際上迄今為止還損失了一點份額。他們顯然對此並不高興，並試圖收回自己的份額。但在目前的情況下，他們試圖減少為實現成長而建立的庫存，但並沒有奏效。

And for us, when we had that expectation of that growth, and we had sort of given up some share with our price discipline and a few other places in this market context, we had an expectation of how volume would net out that isn't playing out the way we expected. The range of actions we're planning to take right now to address this situation and be very focused on maintaining stability for us in this market. And so that, I think, is sort of where we -- how we got here. We didn't really get some of these insights from these medium customers until the second quarter, which is what we're adjusting to now.

對我們來說，當我們對這種成長抱持預期時，我們在某種程度上放棄了一些市場份額，並在這種市場環境下控制價格，並放棄了其他一些份額，我們對交易量淨額的預期並沒有像我們預期的那樣發展。我們計劃立即採取一系列行動來應對這種情況，並高度重視維護這個市場的穩定。所以，我想，這就是我們走到今天這一步的原因。直到第二季度，我們才真正從這些中型客戶那裡獲得一些見解，這就是我們現在正在適應的情況。

From a destocking point of view, well, there's a lot of destocking certainly going on this year. There’s reason to expect it next year. It will be less than this year from what we can tell. And we've got all these offsets of things like utilization and textiles, et cetera, being an offset to this tow dynamic. So when you put it all together, we think we can stabilize the situation as we go into next year.

從去庫存的角度來看，今年肯定會有大量去庫存活動。我們有理由期待明年的這項結果。據我們所知，這個數字將比今年少。我們已經獲得了諸如利用和紡織品等各種補償措施，以抵消這種拖曳動態。所以，綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們認為我們可以在進入明年時穩定局勢。

Kevin McCarthy, VRP.

凱文·麥卡錫，VRP。

Thank you and good morning. Mark, in the prepared remarks that you released last night, I think you mentioned that you're now targeting additional cost cuts of $75 million to $100 million. So can you maybe elaborate on the actions that you're taking and how those savings might flow through the financials over the next I don't know, several quarters here.

謝謝，早安。馬克，在您昨晚發布的準備好的發言稿中，我想您提到過，您現在的目標是額外削減 7500 萬至 1 億美元的成本。那麼，您能否詳細說明您正在採取的行動，以及這些節省的資金將如何在未來幾季流入財務部門。

I’ll let Willie hit the cost reduction targets, and then I'll add a couple of comments to that.

我會讓威利達到成本削減目標，然後我會對此補充幾點評論。

Thanks, Kevin. Good morning. Obviously, in this environment, we're focused on building on the improvements that we've made here in 2025 as we enter '26, and we've got detailed plans that will be pulling together in the back half of the year that enabled us to again deliver another $75 million to $100 million as long as the environment continues to persist.

謝謝，凱文。早安.顯然，在這種環境下，我們將專注於在 2026 年到來之際鞏固我們在 2025 年所取得的進步，並且我們已經制定了詳細的計劃，這些計劃將在下半年匯總，只要環境繼續保持良好，我們就能再次提供 7500 萬至 1 億美元的資金。

I would say also, just to highlight that our actions do not reflect the change in our strategy as we think about innovation and excellence in how we execute, having an efficient and effective cost structure goes hand-in-hand with achieving that and generating returns over the long term.

我還想說，只是為了強調我們的行動並不反映我們策略的變化，因為我們考慮執行方式的創新和卓越，擁有高效和有效的成本結構與實現這一目標並在長期產生回報密切相關。

So our actions range from optimizing our contract partners, and then the overall usage of that. I think we've shown in multiple economic environments that we ultimately take structure that looks fixed and make it variable. As we think about reliability and maintenance execution, that is a focus as we continue to enhance and deliver reliability over the long term and reduce overall maintenance.

因此，我們的行動範圍包括優化我們的合約夥伴，然後是整體使用。我認為我們已經在多種經濟環境中表明，我們最終會採用看似固定的結構並使其可變。當我們考慮可靠性和維護執行時，這是一個重點，因為我們將繼續長期增強和提供可靠性並減少整體維護。

As we think about purchasing an MRO for -- in this environment, as we're going through tariffs right now, we're looking at how do we optimize that supply chain and ultimately, overall mitigate and reduce that cost structure. Energy efficiency, as Mark has highlighted, energy is a headwind this year, and that's core, and we have opportunities on that front. And obviously, in this type of environment, it will also result in reduced labor cost as we think about the year-over-year performance.

當我們考慮購買 MRO 時——在這種環境下，由於我們正在考慮關稅，我們正在研究如何優化供應鏈，並最終從整體上減輕和降低成本結構。正如馬克所強調的，能源效率是今年的一大阻力，這是核心，我們在這方面也有機會。顯然，在這種環境下，從年比表現來看，勞動成本也會降低。

Yeah, what I'd sort of like to add to this is it came up earlier, where do we view the world next year? And are we really worried about getting worse? First of all, to be clear, you can't annualize the back half of this year with what we're going through. You can't -- you've got all this asset utilization headwind that's distorting. You've got normal seasonality that you'd always have to correct for a little more 55%, 45% first half to back half normally, and you've got the sort of prebuy dynamic and just the absolute chaos of tariffs and how it's impacting demand behavior in the marketplace.

是的，我想補充的是，它之前就出現過，我們如何看待明年的世界？我們真的擔心情況會變得更糟嗎？首先，要明確的是，你不能根據我們正在經歷的情況將今年下半年的情況年度化。你不能——你已經遇到了所有這些扭曲的資產利用逆風。你有正常的季節性，你總是需要糾正多一點的 55%，通常上半年為 45%，下半年為 45%，而且你有某種預購動態和關稅的絕對混亂以及它如何影響市場需求行為。

So I can't do that. So when we think about cost structures and what we're trying to do going into next year and really think about, on a full year basis, how do we go from this year to next year, which I think is a better way to think about it. These cost actions are incredibly important. But what you didn't hear Willie say is we're shutting down a bunch of plants and rationalizing them. A lot of the industry right now, both on the specialty and the commodity side are rationalizing plants entirely because if they're doing that, they don't see that demand coming back in the future. We're not doing that.

所以我不能這麼做。因此，當我們考慮成本結構以及我們明年要做的事情時，我們會認真思考，從全年來看，我們如何從今年過渡到明年，我認為這是一種更好的思考方式。這些成本行動極為重要。但你沒有聽到威利說我們正在關閉一批工廠並對其進行合理化改造。目前，無論是特種化學品還是大宗商品，許多行業都在徹底對工廠進行合理化調整，因為如果他們這樣做，就看不到未來需求的回升。我們不會這麼做。

We're actually confident with our innovation and the way we find ways to value up our facilities and grow and leverage them efficiently like we did from PET to copolyesters. So Tritan or standard interlayers to acoustic interlayers to HUD, we believe that our asset base outside of some tweaks here and there is well positioned for the growth that we would expect to have in '26 and '27 and beyond.

事實上，我們對我們的創新以及我們找到方法來評估我們的設施並有效地發展和利用它們的方式充滿信心，就像我們從 PET 到共聚酯所做的那樣。因此，從 Tritan 或標準夾層到聲學夾層再到 HUD，我們相信，除了一些調整之外，我們的資產基礎已經為 26 年、27 年及以後我們預期的增長做好了準備。

So that's -- so when you think about that $100 million that helps improve earnings next year to this year. When you think about the asset utilization, once again, focused on cash and discipline, that $75 million to $100 million headwind becomes a tailwind. And the way to think about that as a tailwind, if the demand is really as bad as the back half of this year, it's a $50 million tailwind in utilization next year. If it gets back to the front half of this year, it's a $100 million tailwind relative to this year, just how those utilization numbers work. And to be clear, the demand was not strong in the first half of this year with all the dynamics that we're facing.

所以 — — 所以當你想到這 1 億美元有助於提高明年和今年的收益。當你考慮資產利用率時，再次專注於現金和紀律，7,500 萬到 1 億美元的逆風就變成了順風。我們可以將其視為順風，如果需求真的像今年下半年一樣糟糕，那麼明年利用率就會增加 5,000 萬美元。如果回到今年上半年，相對於今年來說，這將是 1 億美元的順風，就像那些利用率數字一樣。需要明確的是，考慮到我們面臨的所有動態，今年上半年的需求並不強勁。

So we feel good about that being a tailwind for next year. We've got all the innovation going on across the portfolio growing, of course, the revenue on the Kingsport plant, as we talked about. There's growth that we have and can see in new HUD interlayers on the Aventa products gaining traction and being key to driving that utilization and the cellulose extreme, new products in cosmetics and specialty plastics, et cetera, recovering Naia.

因此，我們很高興看到這將成為明年的順風。我們在整個產品組合中不斷進行創新，當然，正如我們所談到的，金斯波特工廠的收入也在不斷增長。我們看到，Aventa 產品上的新型 HUD 夾層正在獲得關注，並成為推動利用率和纖維素極限的關鍵，化妝品和特殊塑膠等領域的新產品正在恢復 Naia。

We do think we'll continue to have great discipline on managing our price cost, and so that won't be a headwind or a tailwind, but good to defend and manage and prove about the value of our products by doing that 4-years into a difficult world. It’s reasonable to expect there will be some recovery in CI.

我們確實認為，我們將繼續嚴格控制價格成本，因此這不會成為逆風或順風，而是有利於在四年艱難的世界中捍衛、管理和證明我們產品的價值。我們有理由預期 CI 將會出現一些復甦。

And of course, with our cash discipline and improving operating cash flow next year versus this year, more cash to return to shareholders, especially since we're able to delay the step-up of the next methanolysis plant due to the advantages we have in debottlenecking the current one. So I think we're well positioned to recover next year. But as I said earlier, no one can predict where the absolute economy is going to go at this stage.

當然，由於我們現金紀律的嚴格以及明年相比今年經營現金流的改善，我們將向股東返還更多現金，特別是因為我們在消除現有甲醇分解工廠的瓶頸方面具有優勢，因此我們能夠推遲下一個甲醇分解工廠的升級。所以我認為我們已做好明年復甦的準備。但正如我之前所說，目前沒有人能夠預測絕對經濟將會走向何方。

Appreciate all the color there. Just to follow up on your add-on comment, Mark, and listening to you. Is it fair to say that as the US goes into this new tariff regime, you do not anticipate any large changes in terms of portfolio composition? The reason I ask is in the second to the last paragraph of the remarks, there was some commentary about addressing underperforming parts of the portfolio and a reminder that you've divested certain businesses in the past.

欣賞那裡的所有色彩。只是為了跟進您的附加評論，馬克，並聽取您的意見。是否可以說，隨著美國進入這個新的關稅制度，您預期投資組合組成不會有任何重大變化？我之所以問這個問題，是因為在評論的倒數第二段中，有一些關於解決投資組合中表現不佳的部分的評論，並提醒您過去已經剝離了某些業務。

It doesn't sound like you have anything larger than a bread box under consideration right now. Is that fair?

聽起來您現在沒有考慮過比麵包盒更大的東西。這樣公平嗎？

In the short term, I think that's fair, Kevin. I mean, I think that -- and just to be clear, there's optimizing capacity and then there's thinking about what businesses belong in the portfolio, which are very different questions.

從短期來看，我認為這是公平的，凱文。我的意思是，我認為——需要明確的是，首先要優化產能，然後要思考哪些業務屬於投資組合，這是非常不同的問題。

On the first question around optimizing capacity, we've done things like optimize some production inside our Massachusetts site in interlayers. So we shut the Singapore plant down. And optimize some capacity and heat transfer fluids to align with market conditions. And none of those are big significant cost cut steps, but it's just being conscious of managing cost structure. And we'll continue doing things like that across the portfolio.

關於優化產能的第一個問題，我們已經採取了一些措施，例如優化馬薩諸塞州工廠內部夾層中的部分生產。因此我們關閉了新加坡工廠。並優化一些容量和傳熱流體以適應市場情況。這些都不是重大的成本削減措施，而只是有意識地管理成本結構。我們將繼續在整個投資組合中採取類似的做法。

That's part of what Willie is talking about when we have network asset optimization. The E2P investment in CI is a structural investment to improve that site's performance. And so the -- as we are more prepared to get into the details of that, we'll give you more insight on what that means. But again, we're not shutting the entire site down like in Europe, there's just major sites just all being shut down by companies left and right, probably going to be to 30% shutdown by the end of the year over the last 4-years. So we're not seeing that.

這就是威利在談到網路資產優化時所討論的部分內容。E2P 對 CI 的投資是一項結構性投資，旨在改善該站點的性能。因此，當我們準備好深入了解這一細節時，我們將為您提供有關其含義的更多見解。但是，我們不會像歐洲那樣關閉整個網站，只是各大公司陸續關閉了一些主要網站，在過去 4 年中，到今年年底可能會關閉 30% 的網站。所以我們沒有看到這一點。

When it comes to portfolio, we're always disciplined. I think we've proven that. We've proven with adhesives and tires and the acetic acid plant, if you want to go back far enough in history, we proved it from 2006 to 2012 in divesting a lot of underperforming businesses. And we'll always keep an eye on that and look at what belongs in our portfolio and be open-minded to things that can be segregated and separated from the company. Integration does create constraints on that.

當談到投資組合時，我們始終保持嚴謹。我想我們已經證明了這一點。我們已經用黏合劑、輪胎和醋酸工廠證明了這一點，如果你想回顧歷史，我們在 2006 年至 2012 年期間剝離了許多表現不佳的業務，證明了這一點。我們將始終關注這一點，研究哪些資產屬於我們的投資組合，並對那些可以與公司分離的資產持開放態度。整合確實會對此產生限制。

But certainly, right now, at the bottom of the market is not a time where you look at doing things like that.

但可以肯定的是，目前市場處於低谷，還不是採取上述行動的時候。

Let's make the next question the last one.

讓我們把下一個問題當作最後一個問題。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞集團。

So just to follow up on the innovation points you brought up. What are you seeing in terms of customers delaying versus canceling or accelerating their investments in evaluating new alternatives or innovative products? Is the uncertainty leading to a freeze in activity? Or is it helping you on that front?

因此，我只是想跟進您提出的創新觀點。您看到客戶在評估新替代品或創新產品方面是推遲投資、取消投資還是加速投資？這種不確定性是否會導致經濟活動凍結？或者它在這方面對你有幫助嗎？

It's great. But you're talking about across the portfolio, and I think I've already hit it.

這很棒。但您談論的是整個投資組合，我想我已經談到了這一點。

Yes, across the portfolio (inaudible) your customers because that's always been one of your differentiation. Just curious, is it becoming a demand pull for '27, '28, '29? Or is that becoming more of a concern?

是的，在整個產品組合中（聽不清楚）您的客戶，因為這一直是您的差異化之一。只是好奇，這是否會成為 27、28、29 年的需求拉動？或者這變得越來越令人擔憂？

What's interesting across the portfolio, I'd say is customers are still highly engaged. They like us, realize that to get out of a weak environment, you got to create your own growth. You can't just sit there and wait for things to get better. And you also want to maintain your differentiation against competition.

我想說的是，整個投資組合中有趣的一點是客戶仍然高度參與。他們和我們一樣，意識到要擺脫弱勢環境，就必須創造自己的成長。你不能只是坐在那裡等待事情變得更好。而且您也希望保持與競爭對手的差異化。

So whether it's next-generation HUD and different versions of that, we're seeing very strong engagement in the auto industry as well as specialized products necessary for the EVs, which are still growing in lots of parts of the market. You see a lot of engagement there. lot of engagement around Aventa as a solution.

因此，無論是下一代 HUD 還是其不同版本，我們都看到了汽車行業的強勁參與度以及電動車所需的專用產品，這些產品在市場的許多領域仍在增長。您會看到那裡有很多參與。很多參與都圍繞著 Aventa 作為解決方案。

Polystyrene is being abandoned in a lot of food tray applications or straws on this side and the other -- and the retailers or the food service companies need products to sort of solve those problems. So the engagement there has been very good along with new products we're always launching in specialty plastics. So those, we have a product that replaces polyethylene coatings for paper cups and other sort of paper food applications that has strong engagement.

如今，許多食品托盤或吸管都不再使用聚苯乙烯，而零售商或食品服務公司需要產品來解決這些問題。因此，我們在那裡的參與度一直很好，而且我們一直在推出特種塑膠新產品。因此，我們有一種產品可以取代紙杯和其他紙質食品應用的聚乙烯塗層，具有強烈的吸引力。

So across the circular platforms, across the automotive space, personal care space, et cetera, we're definitely seeing engagement. But the rate at which they're adopting is still constrained about economic reality here in the short term. With all this, everyone is just focused on how you manage costs and get through these tariffs. But the great news is it has not resulted in a pause on engagement on innovation.

因此，在循環平台、汽車領域、個人護理領域等等，我們確實看到了參與度。但短期內，他們採用的速度仍受到當地經濟現實的限制。有了這些，每個人都只專注於如何管理成本並完成這些關稅。但好消息是，這並沒有導致創新參與的暫停。

Thank you very much, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your time. I hope you have a great rest of the day and a great weekend. Thanks again.

非常感謝大家今天加入我們。感謝您的時間。我希望您今天剩餘的時間過得愉快，並度過一個愉快的週末。再次感謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。