伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter Full Year 2023 Eastman Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼2023年第四季全年電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議將在伊士曼網站www.eastman.com上進行現場直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我們將把電話轉交給伊士曼投資者關係部的Greg Riddle先生。請您發言。

Thank you, Alex, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝亞歷克斯，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、執行副總裁兼首席財務官威利·麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain) 以及投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Yesterday after market closed, we posted our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investor Relations section of our website, www.eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，我們在網站 www.eastman.com 的投資者關係部分發布了 2023 年第四季度和全年財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件、幻燈片和相關的準備好的評論。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results news release during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for full year 2022 and the Form 10-K to be filed for full year 2023.

在開始之前，我將介紹兩點。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們計劃和預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在本次電話會議期間發布的2023年第四季度和全年財務業績新聞稿、之前的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件（包括提交的2022年全年10-K表格和即將提交的2023年全年10-K表格）中詳細說明。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures including the description of the excluded and adjusted items are available in the fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results news release.

其次，本報告提及的收益不包括某些非核心及非常規項目。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳及其他相關揭露（包括排除項目和調整後項目的描述）可在 2023 年第四季和全年財務業績新聞稿中查閱。

I'd like to now turn the call over to Mark for some remarks.

現在我想將電話轉給馬克來發表一些評論。

Before I jump into the Q&A, I do want to take the opportunity to recognize the team that's been working on the methanolysis plant. There's a huge team out there that's been working tremendously since our last call in October to commission and start up this facility and get us to the point where we're introducing feedstock. And that's a real remarkable accomplishment when you look over this time frame.

在開始問答環節之前，我想藉此機會感謝一直在甲醇分解工廠工作的團隊。自從我們去年10月接到上次電話以來，我們有一個龐大的團隊，他們一直在辛勤工作，致力於調試和啟動這個設施，並使我們達到了可以引入原料的階段。回顧這段時間，這確實是一項了不起的成就。

They've worked incredibly hard through the holidays. They've made a lot of personal sacrifice, and they've got us to this stage. And it's a real testament to their dedication and belief in the company and the excitement that every owner of this company has around building the circular economy.

他們整個假期都辛勤工作，做出了巨大的個人犧牲，才讓我們走到今天這一步。這充分證明了他們對公司的奉獻和信任，也反映了公司每位股東對建構循環經濟的熱情。

And it's also a real great example of the power of our Tennessee site. Its scale and integration has really enabled this start-up process to go this quickly and well. Because we have such a huge vast set of resources and capabilities, it literally allowed us to swing a lot of those people from different parts of the plant into this start-up process and make a significant difference. So I just wanted to express my thanks to all of the people who've been involved in this process. It's been a tremendous program and one that they really did make a lot of sacrifice and we deeply appreciate it.

這也充分展現了我們田納西工廠的實力。它的規模和整合能力真正確保了此次啟動過程能夠如此快速順利地進行。由於我們擁有如此龐大的資源和能力，這使我們能夠將工廠不同部門的眾多人員調動到啟動過程中，並發揮了重要作用。因此，我只想向所有參與此過程的人們表示感謝。這是一個意義非凡的項目，他們確實做出了巨大的犧牲，我們對此深表感謝。

With that, we'll open it up to Q&A.

接下來，我們將開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question for today comes from Josh Spector of UBS.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

I actually wanted to follow up on the methanolysis facility first -- the methanolysis facility. So you're near getting on-spec product out. But I was wondering if you could talk through kind of the milestones as you go through this year. So when do you get to the point where you say yields are as expected? Do you think you can get to the full operational capacity and the cost structure and therefore, the EBITDA becomes in line with your long-term expectations?

我其實想先跟進一下甲醇分解設施的情況——甲醇分解設施。所以你們的產品已經接近出廠標準了。但我想請問您能否談談今年的里程碑。您說的收益率什麼時候能達到預期？您認為你們能達到滿載營運和成本結構嗎？這樣，EBITDA（息稅折舊攤提前利潤）就能符合你們的長期預期嗎？

It's a question one we're very focused on. And we are very excited to be at the stage we're at right now. As we said in our comments, we're at the point where we've been starting up the facility, completed all the commissioning, introducing feedstock, and that will start to be processed. And the front end of the plant takes a little bit of time to do that, to get the system properly charged and then it starts going through the plant.

這是我們非常關注的問題。我們對目前所處的階段感到非常興奮。正如我們在評論中所說，我們目前正處於啟動設施、完成所有調試、引入原料並開始加工的階段。工廠的前端需要一些時間來進行這些工作，以使系統正確充電，然後才能開始在工廠內生產。

So we feel that we're in good shape to be on spec here soon with material recognizing revenue and getting that process going and serving our customers who are very eager to get product from us. And when I say soon, I mean sort of days or weeks in where we sit right now. So we feel like we're on track with starting up the plant and serving customer demand relative to that $75 million.

因此，我們感覺狀態良好，很快就能達到預期，實現材料收入確認，並啟動相關流程，為那些渴望從我們這裡獲得產品的客戶提供服務。我說的很快，指的是我們目前的狀態，大概幾天或幾週就能實現。因此，我們感覺工廠啟動和滿足客戶需求（相對於那7500萬美元）的進度正在按計劃進行。

Now as you talk about the plant side of this, you don't go from the plants producing on-spec material the full ramp-up rates overnight. It takes a few months to line out the facility, optimize its operations and make sure that everything is working properly as you scale it up. And so we'll be doing that and ramping up the production. But the way this plant works and the way we can get the recycled content out, we should be able to start getting revenue relatively soon.

說到工廠方面，你不可能一夕之間就從生產符合規格材料的工廠全面提升產能。在擴大規模的過程中，需要幾個月的時間來規劃設施、優化運營，並確保一切正常運作。因此，我們會繼續這樣做，並逐步提高產量。但考慮到這家工廠的運作方式以及我們回收材料的生產方式，我們應該能夠相對快速地開始獲利。

When it comes to the demand side of things -- and by the way, cost structure will line out over time. Right now, we're still in that pre-production phase. Expenses are a bit higher than when you just are pulling the operating resources back to sort of steady state. So front end of this from a cost point of view is a little loaded as you would expect.

說到需求方面—順便說一下，成本結構會隨著時間的推移而逐漸顯現。目前，我們仍處於預生產階段。支出比剛將營運資源恢復到穩定狀態時要高一些。所以從成本角度來看，前期投入會比較大，這一點是意料之中的。

The demand side, I'd say, is actually quite good. So what's different than most plants in this situation is we didn't start selling recycled content when the plant starts, we started it over a year ago. We have a technology called glycolysis, it's a bridging technology where we can use our existing assets. You can use sort of clean, clear bottles, which is what you have to have with glycolysis to then make recycled content.

我想說，需求方面其實相當不錯。所以，與大多數工廠不同的是，我們工廠一開始並沒有銷售回收材料，而是在一年多前就開始了。我們有一種叫做糖解作用的技術，這是一種銜接技術，我們可以利用現有資源。你可以使用乾淨透明的瓶子，而這正是糖解技術所需要的，之後我們就可以生產回收材料了。

So long term, it's not a great strategy because it's very high cost to buy those clean bottles and it's not a very efficient process in using your existing assets. But what it did allow us to do is supply recycled content polymer to a number of brands. In fact, the brands that you can see on that slide in the presentation we provided have already been selling our recycled content from that technology into the marketplace.

所以從長遠來看，這不是一個好的策略，因為購買這些清潔瓶子的成本非常高，而且利用現有資產效率不高。但它確實讓我們能夠向許多品牌供應再生材料聚合物。事實上，您在我們簡報的幻燈片上看到的那些品牌已經在市場上銷售我們利用該技術生產的再生材料了。

So we're not trying to ramp them up. They're already ready to go in the market and very anxious to get material from us to sort of accelerate volume build into this year. So that really helps us both know that we can get the price premiums we want to support our economics as well as we have a number of customers that are going to sort of buy the moment we have product coming out of the plant.

所以我們不會試著提高產量。他們已經準備好進入市場，非常渴望從我們這裡獲得原料，以加速今年的產量成長。這確實有助於我們雙方都了解，我們能夠獲得所需的溢價，以支持我們的經濟效益，而且我們有很多客戶會在我們工廠產品一出廠就購買。

And then there are a bunch of other brands we've been working on that we just didn't have the capacity to serve last year that are also very interested in the product, and so we'll be qualifying them and ramping them up. So what you have is a situation where the ramp-up will start to help Q2 relative to Q1, but really sort of make a big difference in the second half relative to the first half of where you see this incremental EBITDA.

此外，我們一直在合作一些其他品牌，去年我們沒有足夠的能力服務這些品牌，但他們也對產品非常感興趣，所以我們會對他們進行資格審查，並加大力度。所以，目前的狀況是，相對於第一季度，這種提升將在第二季度有所助益，但實際上，下半年相對於上半年，其EBITDA（息稅折舊攤銷前利潤）的增長將起到至關重要的作用。

The last point I would mention is on the cost side, normally, when you build a big specialty plant, you have a huge headwind in operating costs as you start up. And we certainly have operating costs for this plant. But they are really sort of offset by the pre-production expense of last year and the higher cost of this glycolysis process I just mentioned. So the costs are relatively neutral. And so that helps the revenue be -- flow pretty fast to EBITDA through that sort of year-over-year sort of steady cost structure, if you will.

我最後要提到的一點是成本方面。通常情況下，當你建造一個大型特種工廠時，在啟動初期會面臨巨大的營運成本壓力。我們這個工廠當然也存在營運成本。但這些成本實際上被去年的預生產費用以及我剛才提到的糖酵解工藝的較高成本抵消了。所以成本相對穩定。這有助於收入——透過這種逐年穩定的成本結構——快速轉化為EBITDA。

So that's the sort of key components of it. We're very focused on just keeping the process going right now. And as I said earlier, it's just a tremendous example of teamwork out there who are doing this through winter weather and freezing conditions, et cetera, to get this plant running.

這就是其中的關鍵組成部分。我們現在非常專注於確保生產流程的順利進行。正如我之前所說，這充分展現了團隊合作的精髓，大家克服了嚴寒、嚴寒等惡劣天氣，確保工廠正常運作。

And maybe just quickly, so as you go through all that, you made some comments that you wouldn't FID the next plant until this plant is done. I guess, is that just on-spec product? Or is there at some point, production yield or some other metric you're looking at to say we're good, the design is fine, there's -- like we're going to move ahead with that project? Because you seem pretty bullish about getting the customer commitments that second plant soon, so I'm just wondering what's the limiting factor there.

簡單說一下，您剛才說，在這個工廠完工之前，您不會對下一個工廠進行最終確定（FID）。我想，這只是產品符合規格嗎？還是說，在某個時候，您會考慮產量或其他指標，來判斷我們做得不錯，設計沒問題，我們是否會繼續推進這個專案？因為您似乎對第二個工廠很快就獲得客戶承諾非常樂觀，所以我想知道，限制因素是什麼。

Yes. There are a couple of limiting factors. One, obviously, is we want to see the Kingsport plant technology up and running. And as you said, we want to see that the yields and efficiency are what we expect them to be, the plants running operationally well. And as I said, that's in the next couple of months that we'll sort of get those insights and knowledge to feel comfortable about the quality of this plant.

是的。有幾個限制因素。首先，顯然是我們希望看到金斯波特工廠的技術能夠順利投入運作。正如您所說，我們希望看到產量和效率達到預期，工廠能夠良好運作。正如我所說，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將獲得一些深入的了解和知識，以確保工廠的品質。

Because it's important to keep in mind that to minimize capital risk and construction risk, we're going to leverage and build the same plant, right, in France in the second plant. And there's obviously improvements we'll learn through this process. But same scale, same design, so that -- really leveraging all the learning that we've gone through in this plant to do a better job in how we build the second and third plants.

因為重要的是要記住，為了最大限度地降低資本風險和建設風險，我們將利用在法國建造的同一家工廠來建造第二家工廠。顯然，我們會在這個過程中學到一些改進。但規模相同，設計相同，這樣才能真正利用我們在這家工廠累積的所有經驗，更好地建造第二家和第三家工廠。

So that, I think, is in the time frame of what we're talking about right now from an FID point of view. The customer contracts are obviously the second component of that -- of making that decision, and the incentives for the project getting finalized is the third part.

所以，我認為，從最終投資決定（FID）的角度來看，我們現在討論的時間框架就是這樣的。客戶合約顯然是做出最終投資決定的第二個組成部分，而專案最終完成的激勵措施則是第三個部分。

We feel good about all those. And we think, again, in the same kind of time frame, in the next several months, we should be in a position to have FID. When construction starts is a little bit different than declaring FID. We're still completing the engineering, we have permitting to do on the environmental side and building permitting that is ongoing as we speak.

我們對所有這些都感到滿意。我們認為，在未來幾個月內，我們應該能夠做出最終投資決定 (FID)。開工與宣布最終投資決定略有不同。我們仍在完成工程，還有環境方面的許可需要辦理，建築許可也正在進行中。

So we're not talking about starting actual construction until -- soon as probably late summer with the path that we're on right now. And that gives us all of that time to make sure we believe in how the plant is operating before you start turning dirt on the second and third plants.

所以，以目前的進度，我們最快可能要到夏末才會開始實際施工。這樣我們就有充足的時間，確保工廠的運作良好，然後再開始動工建造第二座和第三座工廠。

Our next question comes from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, some of your customers and peers this earnings season have noted some modest stabilization, improvement in certain markets, underlying demand. Are you seeing any of that in any of your geographies or key markets?

馬克，在本財報季，您的一些客戶和同行注意到，某些市場和潛在需求出現了一定程度的穩定和改善。您在一些地區或關鍵市場是否也看到了類似的情況？

Certainly, David. What I'd say is we are seeing stable -- I mean stabilization, absolutely. So our guidance is built on thinking that primary demand this year is going to be similar to last year in the sort of discretionary markets. And in the stable markets like personal care, water treatment, consumer packaging, et cetera, we would expect sort of modest growth from last year.

當然，大衛。我想說的是，我們看到的是穩定——我的意思是絕對的穩定。所以我們的預期是基於這樣的假設：今年在非必需消費品市場，主要需求將與去年相似。而在個人護理、水處理、消費品包裝等穩定的市場，我們預期會比去年略有成長。

Now to be clear, last year's demand -- primary demand was low. We're not predicting an improvement in any meaningful way from those sort of low levels we were at from -- through last year. What I would say is -- and automotive, we actually are -- was growing last year, and we think it's going to be more flattish this year. So that's sort of where we are in the primary demand as we sort of showed on the slide that we supplied to you guys.

現在需要明確的是，去年的需求——初級產品需求很低。我們預測與去年相比，需求不會有任何顯著改善。我想說的是——汽車產業——去年確實在成長，但我們認為今年會更加平緩。這就是我們初級產品需求的現狀，正如我們在提供給你們的幻燈片中所展示的。

The key driver for pretty significant volume increase for us this year versus last year is really the sort of lack of destocking when you think about the sort of volume mix impact of last year, driving earnings down about $450 million. And what we said in October, I think it's still true. You assume about 1/3 of that is destocking, it's probably a bit more than that, but to play it safe, we'll call it 1/3. That's $150 million of a lack of a demand headwind from last year relative to this year. It's like an easy comp. And we can see the evidence of that playing out already in the fourth quarter in some markets and certainly into the first.

與去年相比，我們今年的銷量大幅增長，關鍵驅動因素實際上是缺乏去庫存，考慮到去年銷量結構的影響，這導致收益下降了約 4.5 億美元。我們 10 月說過的話，我認為現在仍然適用。假設其中約 1/3 是去庫存造成的，實際數字可能略高一些，但為了安全起見，我們稱之為 1/3。這意味著，與去年相比，今年缺乏 1.5 億美元的需求逆風。這就像一個簡單的比較。我們已經看到，這種跡像在第四季在某些市場有所顯現，當然，這種跡象會持續到第一季。

So for example, the durables business, which -- consumer durables business, which is the one that was most impacted from a demand drop last year. The second half of last year was 40% higher in volumes than the first half of last year. So you've already seen a lot of the -- into destocking that's occurring there.

例如耐久財業務，也就是耐用消費品業務，是去年受需求下降影響最大的業務。去年下半年的銷售量比上半年高出40%。所以，你已經看到那裡正在發生大量的去庫存化。

We're still not where we want to be, of course, from a market demand point of view, but it's very clear destocking is over. Same is true in a lot of the stable markets, right? Destocking occurred in personal care, water treatment, things like that in the first half of the year. By the tentative back half of the year, we're already getting to sort of some modest market growth. So for the overall year, demand was relatively flat to '22 in some of those markets.

當然，從市場需求的角度來看，我們還沒有達到預期目標，但很明顯，去庫存階段已經結束。很多穩定的市場也是如此，對吧？今年上半年，個人護理、水處理等領域的去庫存現像已經出現。預計下半年，我們已經看到了一些溫和的市場成長。因此，就全年而言，其中一些市場的需求與2022年相比相對持平。

Building construction, I think, is probably still the most challenged. It was tough last year. The expectation is it's going to be tough this year, maybe even slightly down in primary demand. And -- but again, I think most of the destocking in that market has played out. By the end of the fourth quarter, there may be little pieces and parts into the first quarter, so you still get that lack of destocking lift in coatings and interlayers across AFP and AM.

我認為，建築施工可能仍然是挑戰最大的產業。去年很難熬。預計今年也會很艱難，初級產品需求甚至可能略有下降。而且——不過，我認為該市場的大部分去庫存已經完成。到第四季末，第一季可能會出現一些零星的去庫存，因此，在AFP和AM領域，塗料和夾層市場仍然缺乏去庫存的提振。

So I think that, that sort of on a full year basis, sort of how we look at it. And I would note of that $150 million of lack of destocking, 2/3 of it is in Advanced Materials. And the progression, I would say, through the quarter is looking good. So we had a soft start to January, February is already stronger orders in January, and March looks good at this point with what we can see.

所以我認為，從全年來看，我們是這樣看待的。我注意到，在1.5億美元的去庫存缺口中，三分之二來自先進材料領域。我想說，整個季度的進展看起來不錯。 1月我們開局疲軟，2月訂單量已經增加，就目前的情況來看，3月的訂單量也不錯。

So that's another point to keep in mind is the first quarter is a pretty slow start, as you can clearly see in our guide. But there's a lot of upside as you move into the second quarter from seasonal build. So we do expect a normal seasonal pattern to demand this year. So even though -- we're not saying primary demand is going to be a lot better. First quarter is always softer. Second, third quarter, stronger fourth quarter obviously comes off in a normal pattern for us. And that is how we've built our forecast around that. So that helps a lot for why things get better in the second quarter.

所以需要記住的另一點是，第一季開局相當緩慢，正如您在我們的指南中清楚看到的那樣。但隨著進入第二季度，季節性建設將帶來很大的上行空間。因此，我們確實預期今年的需求將呈現正常的季節性模式。即便如此——我們並不是說主要需求會好很多。第一季總是比較疲軟。第二季、第三季以及更強勁的第四季顯然對我們來說是正常的。這就是我們基於此構建預測的原因。這在很大程度上解釋了為什麼第二季的情況會好轉。

And then there's some timing issues as we've identified in Fibers and fluids where -- particularly low orders in Fluids for especially heat transfer fluids. And then Fibers is a customer buying pattern thing. So those orders get a lot better in second quarter. So there's several things come together along with some better spread improvements that make second quarter a lot better than first quarter, because I'm sure a lot of people have questions on that as you look at our forecast.

然後，正如我們在纖維和流體業務中發現的那樣，存在一些時間安排問題——尤其是流體（尤其是傳熱流體）的訂單量較低。纖維業務與客戶購買模式有關。因此，這些訂單在第二季會好轉很多。因此，多種因素共同作用，再加上價差的改善，使得第二季的表現遠好於第一季。我相信很多人在查看我們的預測時都會對此有疑問。

And just briefly on AFP. You mentioned some negative price cost in 2024. Where are you expecting to see the pricing pressure in AFP?

簡單談談AFP。您提到2024年會出現一些負價格成本。您預計AFP的價格壓力會在哪裡？

So first of all, the spread management last year was great in AFP. So we do have a lot of business on price sort of cost pass-through contracts to give us very stable margins. So it was very helpful in '22 as raw materials were shooting upward, our prices kept track. And then as prices came off last year, raw material prices came off, the price contracts follow, but there's a lag. So we had an improving spread last year for AFP for the year. And so that was a helpful tailwind to offset some of the volume headwinds we had in that segment.

首先，去年AFP的價差管理非常出色。我們確實有很多類似成本轉嫁合約的業務，這讓我們的利潤率非常穩定。這在2022年非常有幫助，因為當時原物料價格飆升，我們的價格保持了穩定。然後，隨著去年價格回落，原物料價格也回落，價格合約也隨之下降，但有落後。所以，去年AFP的價差有所改善。這對我們抵消了該部門的部分銷售阻力，起到了有益的推動作用。

When you look at this year, there's just a bit of that lag problem again. So you've now got prices sort of stabilizing off. And so if you look at spreads this year relative to last year, there's going to be a bit of a headwind just in the way those sort of cost pass-through contracts work. So that's the primary driver of the sort of modest spread compression we expect this year relative to last year on AFP.

放眼今年，這種滯後問題又出現了。所以現在價格已經基本穩定下來了。所以，如果對比今年與去年的利差，你會發現，這些成本轉嫁合約的運作方式會有一些阻力。因此，我們預計今年AFP的利差將較去年略有收縮，主要原因就在於此。

Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

And if I could follow up in general on pricing. As you indicated in terms of the cost through, the pass-through contracts, '22, was a very good year. And as we're ending '23 here, pricing has been taking a bit of a hit. So how are you thinking overall about Eastman's pricing ability in 2024 for the overall enterprise?

我想問一下關於定價的總體情況。正如您所說，就成本轉嫁和轉嫁合約而言，2022年是非常好的一個年份。而隨著2023年的結束，定價受到了一些衝擊。那麼您如何看待伊士曼在2024年對整個企業的定價能力？

Yes. So first of all, I think it's important to have a little history around pricing because it really is a pretty impressive story. So if you think about 2020 to '22, our company had $2.4 billion of inflation. And so we had sort of CPTs trying to keep up to it, but there was still a lag that creates a compression and the prices catching up to the increases. But overall, we did an excellent job of getting prices to catch up to all that inflation by the end of 2022, but it did create a compression headwind in chasing it in the specialties in particular, in 2022.

是的。首先，我認為有必要了解定價的歷史，因為它確實是一個非常令人印象深刻的故事。想想2020年至2022年，我們公司經歷了24億美元的通貨膨脹。我們採取了一些CPT措施來應對通貨膨脹，但仍然存在滯後，這造成了價格的壓縮，導致價格無法跟上通貨膨脹的漲幅。總的來說，我們在2022年底前成功地讓價格趕上了通貨膨脹，這確實給我們在2022年追趕通貨膨脹帶來了壓力，尤其是在特種藥品領域。

So that's sort of how we entered '23 is at a pretty high elevation with that inflation. The accomplice to '22 was compression and we moved into really doing a phenomenally good job. Our teams were just -- really demonstrated great commercial excellence and the real strength of the value proposition of our specialty products and holding prices outside of the cost pass-through contracts in the Specialties.

所以，我們進入2023年的時候，通貨膨脹率相當高。 2022年伴隨的是壓縮，而我們進入2023年後，確實做得非常好。我們的團隊確實展現了卓越的商業優勢，以及我們特種產品價值主張的真正實力，並將價格保持在特種產品成本轉嫁合約之外。

Not to mention we dramatically improved our pricing in Fibers. So when you think about that $450 million of volume headwind we had in '23 and $50 million of currency, we were able to manage price in '23 in a very difficult economic environment to entirely offset that in improvements in price relative to variable cost.

更不用說我們大幅提高了纖維產品的定價。所以，考慮到我們在2023年面臨的4.5億美元銷售逆風和5000萬美元的貨幣損失，我們能夠在2023年非常困難的經濟環境下管理價格，並透過價格相對於變動成本的改善完全抵消這些不利因素。

And a lot of it is structural. So about $300 million of that is in Fibers, based on all the descriptions we've given you around where that industry is at as well as a good portion of that is in Advanced Materials in the interlayer business where we had extraordinarily high raw materials in '22 that we were able to -- those raw material prices dropped off or prices held, and we got a lot of just recovery back to normal margins in that business.

其中很大一部分是結構性的。根據我們先前對纖維產業現狀的描述，其中約有3億美元用於纖維業務，另外很大一部分用於夾層業務中的先進材料業務。 2022年，我們的原材料價格異常高昂，我們能夠控制這些原材料價格下降或保持穩定，從而使該業務的利潤率大幅回升至正常水平。

So we feel really good about that, and that basically means there's sort of $200 million of spread expansion beyond the sort of Fibers, interlayers that you're managing. So our expectation this year is on the specialties, Fibers is fully contracted. So the prices there are locked. And as we said, business will do a little bit better in earnings versus '23.

我們對此感到非常滿意，這意味著除了你們目前管理的纖維和夾層產品之外，還有大約2億美元的利差擴張。因此，我們今年的預期主要集中在特種產品上，纖維產品已經完全簽約。因此，該領域的價格已經鎖定。正如我們之前所說，與2023年相比，該業務的獲利表現將略有改善。

In the specialties, what I'd say is that we expect some modest price reductions reflecting how the raw material and energy environment is -- has improved. But overall, we would say the spreads in AM and AFP will be similar to last year. So we're not going to get a tailwind out of it. Maybe there's a slight compression across those 2 businesses. But we really believe we'll hold on to our margins with what we see so far, certainly will in the first quarter.

在特種化學品業務方面，我想說的是，我們預計價格會略有下降，這反映了原材料和能源環境的改善。但總體而言，我們認為AM和AFP的價差將與去年相似。因此，我們不會因此而受益。或許這兩個業務的利潤率會略有下降。但我們堅信，就目前的情況來看，我們的利潤率將得以維持，第一季也一定會如此。

And then we expect to have volume and capacity utilization be the key drivers for recovery and earnings which are pretty substantial. The destocking number I just gave you, $100 million of asset utilization tailwind are pretty significant drivers of recovery this year.

我們預期產量和產能利用率將成為經濟復甦和獲利的關鍵驅動力，而這些因素相當可觀。我剛才提到的去庫存化數字，以及1億美元的資產利用率帶來的順風效應，是今年經濟復甦的重要驅動力。

Got it. All right. And then perhaps if you could -- I took a look year-over-year, Europe actually declined less than the United States. Is that really -- is that just a function of Europe entered the year in a worse position? Or is there anything that you can talk about in terms of perhaps any sort of green shoots or what have you in that part of the world?

明白了。好的。然後，如果您能…我查看了同比數據，歐洲的降幅實際上比美國要小。這真的只是因為歐洲今年的處境更糟嗎？或者您能談談歐洲經濟復甦的跡象嗎？或者您能談談歐洲經濟復甦的跡象嗎？

So part of the reason North America is down as much as it was, it's just all of Chemical Intermediates sits in North America predominantly. So when you look at all the revenue that came off in Chemical Intermediates, it's sort of almost all in this country. When it comes to the rest of the portfolio, I'd say we're more globally diverse, and we saw really demand come off and especially sort of across the globe as well as the destocking across the globe. So that was more evenly dispersed. China has got its challenges, and so does Europe and the U.S., probably a little bit stronger in the economy than the other two.

北美市場下滑如此之多的原因之一是，所有化學中間體業務主要集中在北美。所以，當你看到化學中間體業務的所有收入時，你會發現幾乎全部來自美國。至於投資組合的其他部分，我想說我們的全球多元化程度更高了，我們看到需求確實下降，尤其是在全球範圍內，以及全球範圍內的去庫存現象。所以，這些因素的分佈比較均勻。中國面臨挑戰，歐洲和美國也面臨挑戰，但經濟實力可能比其他兩個國家略強。

But from a green shoots point of view, Frank, I wouldn't -- from a -- we have this into destocking, which is our primary focus right now. I think it's way too early to call markets recovering in the consumer discretionary world. So cars, building construction, consumer durables, electronics. There may be some improvement there, but I don't think I have enough data to sort of make that declaration.

但從復甦萌芽的角度來看，弗蘭克，我不會——從——我們目前主要關注的是去庫存。我認為現在就斷言非必需消費品領域的市場正在復甦還為時過早。所以汽車、建築、耐用消費品、電子產品。這些領域可能有所改善，但我認為我沒有足夠的數據來做出這樣的斷言。

But the stable markets are definitely growing. Medical is probably going to grow 4% to 5%. I mean there's still destocking in the first quarter, but the underlying market is going to grow 5%. Ag is growing, personal care, water treatment. A lot of the packaging sector as a lot of the consumer brands are now pivoting from price to recovering volume, we'll benefit from that. So that's about half of our revenue where you get that modest growth in these markets that are sort of more stable.

但穩定的市場肯定在成長。醫療市場可能會成長4%到5%。我的意思是，第一季仍有去庫存的情況，但基礎市場將會成長5%。農業、個人護理和水處理市場都在成長。很多包裝產業，因為許多消費品牌現在正從價格轉向銷售復甦，我們將從中受益。所以，我們大約一半的收入來自這些相對穩定的市場，這些市場實現了溫和的成長。

Our next question comes from Patrick Cunningham of Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的派崔克‧坎寧安。

And maybe just first on Advanced Materials. Can you help us understand the $450 million guide there, and maybe the degree of upside beyond that? I think you get $50 million from Kingsport and you're guiding to $100 million for the first quarter. And just given the extremity of the demand decline, utilization headwinds, destocking of 2023, is there a path to $500 million or more, even in just a modestly positive demand environment from here?

首先談談先進材料。您能否解釋一下4.5億美元的預期收入，以及未來可能的成長空間？我認為您從金斯波特工廠獲得了5000萬美元的資金，而您預計第一季的預期收入將達到1億美元。考慮到需求下降的極端情況、產能利用率的逆風以及2023年的去庫存化，即使在目前需求環境略有好轉的情況下，是否有可能達到5億美元甚至更高的預期收入？

So first, given sort of the challenges we've had in Advanced Materials with pretty rough demand in the fourth quarter of '22 and the full year '23, we're starting with earning our way in our recovery and getting back above $450 million and then working to make it better than that.

因此，首先，考慮到我們在先進材料領域面臨的挑戰，即 2022 年第四季和 2023 年全年的需求相當低迷，我們首先要努力恢復，將銷售額恢復到 4.5 億美元以上，然後努力使其更好。

But just to give you the sort of key tailwinds that go with it, the biggest driver for Advanced Materials recovery is volume and mix, as I sort of pointed out. The corporate level, the story is pretty much an AM story. So 2/3 of that $150 million of a lack of destocking is sort of in the outlook for this segment. I told you durables has already had significant recovery.

但為了給大家介紹一下隨之而來的關鍵利好因素，正如我之前指出的那樣，先進材料復甦的最大驅動力是產量和產品組合。從企業層面來看，這基本上是一個先進材料產業的故事。因此，這1.5億美元去庫存不足的三分之二在某種程度上是該領域前景的一部分。我之前說過，耐久財產業已經出現了顯著復甦。

Medical has great underlying growth. It just had a lot of destocking from a lot of caution in the supply chain crisis that's still finishing itself out in the first quarter here, but we can see that it will be less in the second quarter, and then we'll just have the growth in the back half of the year.

醫療產業的潛在成長潛力巨大。由於供應鏈危機期間的謹慎態度，醫療產業大量去庫存。目前，第一季的危機仍在逐漸消退。我們預計，第二季去庫存的幅度會減緩，下半年才會恢復成長。

So you've got markets that have done a lot of destocking or stabilizing in the lack of destocking helping. Then you've got the return to seasonality. So even though the first quarter is still in recovery mode, when you look to the second quarter and beyond, you've got this return to normal seasonality to this segment. So Q2, Q3 is always stronger, and we expect that to be there. And that order pattern I was talking about, about January, February, March is very much through in Advanced Materials where you can see that progression getting better.

因此，市場已經進行了大量去庫存化，或者在缺乏去庫存化幫助的情況下趨於穩定。然後，季節性因素開始回歸。儘管第一季仍處於復甦階段，但展望第二季及以後，你會發現該細分市場已經回歸正常的季節性。因此，第二季和第三季的業績總是更強勁，我們預計這種情況也會持續下去。我之前提到的1月、2月和3月的訂單模式在先進材料領域已經基本成型，你可以看到這種趨勢正在好轉。

You've also got the ramp-up of the methanolysis plant, as you noted. So that's going to get you that incremental $50 million of EBITDA that you just mentioned that shows up in Advanced Materials. The other $25 million is a benefit for corporate other, just to be clear which is where the pre-production expenses of last year have been sitting.

正如您所說，甲醇分解工廠的產能也得到了提升。這將為您帶來您剛才提到的5000萬美元的EBITDA增量，這體現在先進材料業務上。另外2500萬美元是企業其他業務的收益，需要明確去年的預生產費用都花在哪裡了。

And then you've got the automotive market that even though it's going to be flat, we have a tremendous track record of growing above that market with our great strength in HUD going into more and more cars, great strength of other premium products, the acoustics, et cetera.

然後你會看到汽車市場，儘管它會持平，但我們在該市場的成長方面有著出色的記錄，我們在 HUD 方面的強大優勢正在進入越來越多的汽車領域，在其他高端產品、音響系統等方面也擁有強大的優勢。

And then importantly, even though EV is maybe not growing as fast as everyone hoped, they're still growing much faster than ICE cars. And we get over 3x the amount of square meters in an EV than we do in an ICE car, very high-value products because there's a lot of functionality in those products that we sell to them -- so there's a lot of leverage there that goes beyond just destocking where we're creating our own growth through innovation in circular and automotive that will drive it.

重要的是，儘管電動車的成長速度可能不如大家預期，但它們的成長速度仍然遠遠超過燃油汽車。電動車的面積是燃油汽車的三倍多，而且我們銷售的產品價值非常高，因為我們銷售給電動車的產品功能豐富——因此，除了去庫存之外，我們還可以利用很多槓桿，透過循環經濟和汽車領域的創新來創造自身的成長，從而推動成長。

And as I said earlier, we expect the sort of price cost relationship to be somewhat neutral to last year. So that won't be a source of a tailwind, but we don't expect it to really be a significant headwind either. But all that volume shows up, and then with that, you get utilization, right? So you've got $100 million asset utilization headwind for managing inventory last year, that becomes a $50 million tailwind this year with this segment. So that also will be a driver for how you get above $450 million.

正如我之前所說，我們預計這種價格成本關係與去年相比將保持中性。因此，這不會成為順風，但我們也不認為它會成為顯著的逆風。但所有交易量都會顯現，隨之而來的是利用率，對吧？所以，去年管理庫存的資產利用率逆風為1億美元，而今年這部門的順風則是5,000萬美元。因此，這也將成為推動銷售額突破4.5億美元的驅動力。

So if you put all that math together, you can get to $450 million, you could get something greater than that. But I'd like to see proof in how the market is recovering and ramps up into the spring before we start getting beyond that.

所以，如果把所有這些數字加在一起，就能達到4.5億美元，甚至可能更高。但我希望看到市場復甦並在春季加速的證據，之後我們才能開始超越這個數字。

And Mark, the only thing I would add is, as we think about the year-over-year increase and our depreciation expense, a substantial portion of that will go to the Advanced Materials segment.

馬克，我唯一想補充的是，當我們考慮同比增長和折舊費用時，其中很大一部分將用於先進材料部門。

That's very helpful. And maybe just a follow-up on EVs, how much outperformance relative to the market did you see from EV and premium volume mix impact? And given that we've seen some of that headline deceleration in EVs and maybe sort of looming consumer weakness, do you see potential that, that mix improvement, outperformance is decelerating into 2024?

這很有幫助。接下來我想問電動車，您認為電動車和高階汽車銷售組合的影響相對於市場表現有多大？鑑於我們已經看到電動車整體成長放緩，以及消費者可能即將面臨的疲軟趨勢，您是否認為電動車組合改善和超額表現在2024年有所放緩？

Well, certainly, I think the rate of year-over-year improvement in '24 to '23 will be less than it was in '23 or '24 for the sort of data you're citing around EV growth rate. But I don't think it's significant, right? There's still a lot of applications we're winning. So there's -- okay, there's a primary demand issue that's slowing down, but we're also just starting to penetrate all these EV accounts and win share relative to standard interlayers and ICE cars. So you get this leverage within the market, within the EV segment itself that helps.

嗯，當然，我認為就您提到的電動車成長率數據而言，2024年至2023年的同比成長率將低於2023年或2024年的水準。但我認為這並不重要，對吧？我們仍然在贏得很多應用。所以，好吧，主要的需求問題正在放緩，但我們才剛開始滲透到所有這些電動車客戶，並贏得相對於標準中間膜和內燃機汽車的市場份額。所以，你在市場中，在電動車領域本身，獲得了這種優勢，這很有幫助。

So I don't want to oversell it. I mean we expect an overall flat production market, which I think is sort of consistent with what everyone else is saying but the growth we can get in these premium products is very meaningful in helping us grow above that market.

所以我不想誇大其詞。我的意思是，我們預計整體生產市場將持平，我認為這與其他人的說法基本一致，但我們在這些高端產品上取得的成長，對於幫助我們超越市場成長非常有意義。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Mark, could you talk a little bit about plant 2 and plant 3? There were some comments in the prepared remarks, talking about methanolysis obviously, in the prepared remarks about the teams working to sort of make sure they can stay ahead of inflation. And I'm just kind of curious how you're feeling about the CapEx estimates for those plants.

馬克，您能談談2號工廠和3號工廠的狀況嗎？準備好的發言稿中有一些評論，顯然談到了甲醇分解，也提到了團隊正在努力確保能夠領先通貨膨脹。我只是有點好奇，您對這些工廠的資本支出估算有何看法。

We all know it's obviously an inflationary environment. We've seen some cost overruns at non-related large-scale projects that other folks are doing. So how are you going to stay on top of that? Is it something that you can do technically? Or is it going to be something you're going to have to do in terms of how you price the product?

我們都知道，現在顯然是通貨膨脹的環境。我們發現，其他人正在做的一些與此無關的大型專案也出現了成本超支的情況。那麼，你們打算如何控制這種情況呢？你們在技術上可以做到嗎？還是你們必須從產品定價的角度來解決這個問題？

Yes. So Vincent, you're absolutely right, that's an inflation environment. Certainly, if you go back to Investor Day in December of 2021, the capital estimates we had there for both Kingsport as well as these projects have gone up, which is true for every construction project I've seen in the chemical industry and probably everywhere else. So we're all managing and dealing with that inflation.

是的。文森特，你說得完全正確，那是個通貨膨脹的環境。當然，如果你回顧2021年12月的投資者日，你會發現金斯波特以及這些項目的資本估算都上漲了。我見過的化學工業乃至其他所有行業的所有建設項目都是如此。所以我們都在管理和應對通貨膨脹。

And a lot of what we saw happened in Kingsport went beyond just normal inflation, right? So we had a huge issue with the contractor not having skilled -- properly skilled labor, and that productivity issue was the biggest issue we faced. We also had just an endless series of severe weather events along the way.

我們在金斯波特看到的很多情況都超出了正常的通貨膨脹範圍，對吧？所以我們面臨的一個大問題是承包商缺乏熟練的勞動力——合格的熟練勞動力，而生產力問題是我們面臨的最大問題。此外，我們一路上也遭遇了一系列惡劣天氣事件。

And there was a lot of engineering work we were doing in that project, and piloting of how to optimize the design of the project, why we're building it, which is never ideal, but allowed us probably to get 2 years ahead of the market and getting the product online. So we have a lot of learnings from the methanolysis project here that we're incorporating into France and second, U.S. projects, where we're very clear on how to build them a lot more efficiently than this first one.

我們在那個專案中做了大量的工程工作，並嘗試優化專案設計，探索建造它的原因。雖然這並非理想狀態，但卻讓我們可能領先市場兩年，並最終將產品投入生產。因此，我們從甲醇分解計畫中學到了很多，並將其融入法國和美國的計畫中。我們非常清楚如何比第一個專案更有效率地建造這些專案。

So what I'd say is, from a CapEx point of view, there is inflation that's occurred. There is some deflation that's now in front of us in materials, even contracts -- contractor. Labor availability is improving, as we sort of are in this sort of more recessionary cycle for the materials industry. They'll help sort of offset or slow down or maybe even decline some of that inflation.

所以我想說的是，從資本支出的角度來看，通貨膨脹已經出現。現在我們面臨的是材料、甚至合約——承包商——方面的通貨緊縮。勞動力供應正在改善，因為我們正處於材料產業的衰退週期。這將有助於抵消、減緩甚至降低部分通貨膨脹。

We are building the same plant again. As I said earlier, same scale, same design. Obviously, whatever learnings we have in Kingsport, we'll incorporate into it. But we're not trying to build something new, we're just building the same. And you get a lot of capital efficiency when you're building serial number 2 and number serial 3 at the same plant.

我們又在蓋同一座工廠了。正如我之前所說，規模不變，設計也是。顯然，我們會把在金斯波特學到的所有經驗都融入工廠。但我們不是想蓋新廠，只是在蓋老廠。而且，在同一座工廠同時建造2號和3號工廠，可以大幅提高資本效率。

So there will be benefits in controlling capital, both the cost and the predictability from that. Scopes will be completely locked up before we start building, and that will help us control CapEx relative to what I just described in Kingsport. And we're using great firms, Technip, Fluor, for this -- these projects. And they've got access to an excellent set of contractors to do this. So we feel good about controlling the capital cost. They will certainly be a bit higher. And that's why we're also pursuing more incentives in both France and in the U.S. as part of the projects.

因此，控制資本會帶來許多好處，包括成本和可預測性。在我們開工之前，專案範圍將完全確定，這將有助於我們控制資本支出，這與我剛才在金斯波特提到的情況相比有所改善。我們正在與 Technip、Fluor 等優秀的公司合作，負責這些專案。他們擁有一批優秀的承包商。因此，我們對控制資本成本感到滿意。當然，成本肯定會略高一些。因此，我們也正在法國和美國尋求更多激勵措施，並將其作為計畫的一部分。

So I think we feel good about that. What I would say is when we when we came up with the original economics and talked about returns on these projects, we gave ourselves some room for inflation and other challenges we might encounter. So the Kingsport project is still at 15% return on capital despite the capital increases.

所以我覺得我們對此感到滿意。我想說的是，當我們最初制定經濟方案並討論這些項目的回報時，我們預留了一些空間來應對通貨膨脹和其他可能遇到的挑戰。因此，儘管資本增加，金斯波特專案的資本回報率仍達到15%。

And these projects are still with the proper customer contracts and incentives, above 12% return on capital. So even with inflation, we feel good about the returns and feel that we're on track to get these 2 projects started this year, assuming we hit our requirements that I mentioned earlier, we've got to still get those 3 things, customers, incentives and finalize the capital number.

這些項目仍然擁有合適的客戶合約和激勵措施，資本回報率超過12%。因此，即使考慮到通貨膨脹，我們對回報仍然感到滿意，並認為我們預計今年將啟動這兩個項目。假設我們達到了我之前提到的要求，我們仍然需要滿足這三個條件：客戶、激勵措施，並最終確定資本金額。

Our next question comes from Mike Leithead from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

First question, I wanted to circle back on the EPS outlook. I think the last number of years, the first quarter is roughly 25% of what Eastman's full year EPS turns out to be. This year, 1Q is maybe 18% or so, the full year guide. So can you talk through why this year's 1Q is a bit different? Is it mainly the lingering destocking that gets you a bit better into 2Q there?

第一個問題，我想回到每股盈餘展望的問題。我認為過去幾年，第一季的每股盈餘約佔伊士曼全年每股收益的25%。今年第一季的每股盈餘大概佔全年預期的18%左右。您能談談為什麼今年第一季的每股收益略有不同嗎？主要是因為持續的去庫存化使得第二季的業績略有改善嗎？

Yes. I think as Mark has outlined, we expect the traditional curve, right? We're growing earnings through Q1. Traditionally, Q2 and Q3 are best quarters. And then there's a seasonal decline in Q4. Also, as we've highlighted and also on a year-over-year basis, we expect the second half is where we'll pick up most of the utilization benefit as well as the benefits from our Kingsport methanolysis facility.

是的。我想正如馬克所概述的，我們預計會出現傳統的曲線，對吧？我們的獲利在第一季會成長。傳統上，第二季和第三季是業績最好的季度。然後第四季會出現季節性下滑。此外，正如我們所強調的，與去年同期相比，我們預計下半年將獲得大部分利用率收益以及金斯波特甲醇分解設施帶來的收益。

So there's a combination of factors of the pace that we're seeing in the order books, traditional seasonality as well as the specific items that impact us in '23 that are turning into tailwinds in '24. Those are the key items. Mark?

所以，我們看到訂單成長速度、傳統的季節性因素，以及在2023年對我們產生影響的具體項目，這些因素在2024年變成了順風。這些是關鍵因素。馬克？

I would just add, there's a couple of unique elements of Q1 beyond just the seasonal pattern where you've got oddly low orders from Fibers customers. No volume risk on the contract. They're just not buying as much in Q1 as they will do in Q2, Q3. And so that's sort of putting some pressure on there that's sort of beyond seasonality. Same is true in just timing of fluid fills, not much going on at all in Q1 but we have more in Q2. So there's a few aspects beyond just sort of normal that's sort of impacting the continued destocking in ag and medical, beyond just the seasonal pattern that mostly will play out in Q1.

我想補充一點，除了季節性因素之外，第一季還有一些特殊因素，例如來自纖維客戶的訂單異常低。合約不存在數量風險。只是他們在第一季的採購量不如第二季和第三季那麼多。所以這給他們帶來了一些壓力，這有點超出了季節性因素的影響。液體填充的時間安排也是如此，第一季幾乎沒有任何變化，但第二季的填充量增加。所以，除了主要在第一季體現的季節性因素之外，還有一些超出正常情況的因素影響農業和醫療產業的持續去庫存。

That's helpful. And then just briefly on methanolysis plants, 2 and 3 again, Mark. If I take some of your commentary about if all goes to plan, hopefully, breaking ground, I think, by later this year, is it fair to say these plants -- obviously, you'll have a little bit of efficiency or a lot of efficiency gains from rebuilding the first plant. But is it fair to say that these plants commercially would be running something like in mid-2026 as a starting point?

這很有幫助。然後，馬克，我再簡單談談甲醇分解工廠，2號和3號。如果我引用你關於如果一切按計劃進行，希望在今年晚些時候破土動工的評論，是否可以說這些工廠——顯然，重建第一家工廠會提高一些效率，或者說大幅提高效率。但是，是否可以說這些工廠將在2026年中期左右開始商業化運營，作為起點？

I know -- with the schedule on now, we're more into '27 than '26 for when these projects will start, if you go back to sort of our original estimates. There's certainly efficiency and timing we're pursuing that will allow us to build these plants more efficiently, but we're also building a lot more plants in this case, right? Because it's not just a methanolysis plant we're building. We're building infrastructure on our greenfield side in France. We've got polymer lines that we're also building all at the same time. So when you put it all together, it just takes a certain amount of time to get it done.

我知道——按照目前的計劃，如果回顧我們最初的估算，我們更傾向於在2027年而不是2026年啟動這些項目。我們追求的效率和時間安排當然會讓我們更有效率地建造這些工廠，但在這種情況下，我們還會建造更多的工廠，對吧？因為我們建造的不只是一個甲醇分解工廠。我們正在法國的綠地上建設基礎設施。我們也在同時建設聚合物生產線。所以，當你把所有這些放在一起時，完成它只是需要一定的時間。

But the key is the markets are certainly very eager for the product. They have very significant deadlines in 2030 that they have to hit. So we're certainly well within making sure that we're ramping up and helping them get to their targets. But we want to make sure we've really learned everything we can from Kingsport before we start the construction. And so that's sort of that 6-, 9-month delay that's sort of occurred from what we were originally thinking.

但關鍵在於市場對這款產品的需求非常迫切。他們在2030年有非常緊迫的截止日期，必須完成。因此，我們當然會全力以赴，確保加快進度，幫助他們達成目標。但我們希望在開工之前，確保我們已經從金斯波特計畫中了解到了所有我們能了解的資訊。所以，這大概就是我們最初設想的6到9個月的延遲。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

I think in the Advanced Materials discussion, there was some noting of weak fourth quarter's amount. And Asian auto production is always very strong in the fourth quarter, especially EV production. So is it the case that your EV exposure in Advanced Materials is more with domestic in European companies rather than with Chinese companies?

我認為在先進材料板塊的討論中，有人提到了第四季的疲軟表現。而亞洲汽車產量在第四季一直非常強勁，尤其是電動車產量。那麼，你們在先進材料板塊的電動車投資是否更集中在歐洲本土公司，而不是中國公司？

So Jeff, when it comes to the fourth quarter, there was a lot of moving parts for AM as a segment involved in that. So on the auto side, we do have good relationships and positions with some of the Chinese EV makers as well as the Western EV makers. That has nothing to do with sort of the quarter.

Jeff，說到第四季度，AM 作為一個細分市場，有很多變化。在汽車方面，我們與一些中國和西方電動車製造商保持良好的關係，佔據著一定的地位。這與季度業績無關。

Auto demand was better. You've got to remember, performance films is a key part of that, not just interlayers, where we're going on both EVs as well as ICE cars and our paint protection film. And so it's only the interlayer part that really applies to your question around sort of the OEM manufacturers from an interlayer point of view.

汽車需求有所改善。你必須記住，高性能薄膜是其中的關鍵部分，而不僅僅是中間膜，我們的產品不僅適用於電動車，也適用於內燃機汽車和漆面保護膜。所以，從中間膜的角度來看，只有中間膜部分才真正適用於你關於OEM製造商的問題。

So I think that's not a significant factor. The bigger factors were it's just destocking continued longer than we expected in medical and packaging on the Specialty Plastics side that caused volume mix to be a little bit less than what we were projecting in October. That was the entirety of the difference.

所以我認為這不是一個重要因素。更大的因素是，特種塑膠醫療和包裝行業的去庫存持續時間比我們預期的要長，導致銷售組合略低於我們10月份的預測。這就是差異的全部原因。

I mean overall, the automotive market is sort of moderating a bit, as you can see from the production data in total. That has an impact, but we were still growing above that market in Q4, and we'll continue to grow above that market all year this year.

我的意思是，總體而言，汽車市場正在略有放緩，正如你從整體生產數據中看到的那樣。這確實會產生影響，但我們在第四季的成長速度仍然高於市場，而且今年全年的成長速度仍將高於市場。

I think in the original idea for the methanolysis project, you were going to spend $250 million for the project itself in Kingsport with an additional $175 million for Tritan. And I don't know if you partly built the Tritan plant or the Tritan plant wasn't built at all. But in the non-Titan piece, the original idea was $250 million. What did you spend?

我認為，在甲醇分解計畫的最初構想中，你們計劃在金斯波特計畫本身上投入2.5億美元，另外還計畫為Tritan計畫投入1.75億美元。我不知道你們是否參與了Tritan工廠的部分建設，或者Tritan工廠根本沒有建設。但在非Titan計畫的部分，最初的構想是2.5億美元。你們最後花了多少錢？

And in the future plans, I believe the estimate was $600 million to $800 million. What is the estimate now, in that what you say is that you have a good return on capital? Or you think you can work that out with your customer base? But the customer -- you need to have an expectation of what the capital expenditures are in order to negotiate a level of a good return on capital. So I think originally, all of this was supposed to cost $1.8 billion. What's the number now? Can you help us?

至於未來的計劃，我認為預算是6億到8億美元。現在的預算是多少？您說的資本報酬率是不錯的嗎？還是您認為可以和客戶群協商一下？但是客戶—您需要對資本支出有預期，才能協商出一個不錯的資本報酬率。所以我認為最初所有這些預計花費18億美元。現在的數字是多少？能幫我們解答一下嗎？

Jeff, let's start -- the last update that we gave on the all programs was saying that the 3 methanolysis facilities would be approximately $2.25 billion. Obviously, Mark has also highlighted there was quite a bit of inflation since 2021. And I think that estimate is reflective of that. And every project over this time frame, including ours is at that level.

傑夫，我們開始吧——我們上次更新所有項目時說，這三個甲醇分解設施的成本約為22.5億美元。顯然，馬克也強調了自2021年以來存在相當大的通貨膨脹。我認為這個估算反映了這一點。這段時間內的每個項目，包括我們的項目，都處於這個水平。

Also, I would say, we've been able to handle the CapEx increases that had been above our estimate from a few years ago within our capital budgets that we've outlined and expenditures over the last couple of years. It was fully incorporated into our '22 and '23 spend. And I referenced earlier that we had roughly $30 million of increased depreciation expense going from 2023 to '24, and a substantial portion of that is related to the Kingsport methanolysis facility. That directionally gives you the magnitude.

另外，我想說的是，我們能夠處理好幾年前超出我們預期的資本支出成長，這些成長已經納入我們已概述的資本預算和過去幾年的支出中。這筆支出已完全計入我們2022年和2023年的支出中。我之前提到，從2023年到2024年，我們的折舊費用增加了約3,000萬美元，其中很大一部分與金斯波特甲醇分解設施有關。這從方向上說明了這一成長的規模。

We're going to be disciplined as we move forward, as we think about both from generating the cash flow to fund these, but also on the returns. And we believe that Advance Materials, the return to growth will be accelerated by having this methanolysis facility and our renewed brands with our customers.

我們將在前進的道路上嚴守紀律，不僅要考慮如何創造現金流來支持這些項目，還要考慮回報。我們相信，透過擁有這套甲醇分解設施以及我們與客戶合作的全新品牌，Advance Materials 的成長回報將會加速。

But -- there's no question that the capital numbers -- I'm sorry, just the capital numbers are up. We're also pursuing a lot more incentives to offset some of those capital numbers. So until we get that all finalized, I don't want to just keep updating numbers. So once we have clarity on them and the total economics as well as what we achieved with customers on the pricing premiums, we can get to fund it. We will be able to sort of give you a more clear answer on your questions.

但是——毫無疑問，資本數字——抱歉，只是資本數字上漲了。我們也正在尋求更多激勵措施來抵銷部分資本數字。所以，在我們最終確定之前，我不想只是不斷更新數字。一旦我們明確了這些數字、總體經濟效益以及我們在定價溢價方面為客戶取得的成果，我們就可以開始提供資金。我們將能夠就您的問題給出更清晰的答案。

I mean the incremental $30 million of depreciation, a good portion, if not all, but a good portion of that is Kingsport plants, so you guys can work out what the project costs.

我的意思是，增加 3000 萬美元的折舊，其中很大一部分（如果不是全部的話）是金斯波特工廠的成本，所以你們可以算出這個項目的成本。

I'm sorry, you were saying something, Jeff?

抱歉，你剛才在說什麼，傑夫？

Yes. Did you partly build the Tritan facility and the Tritan expansion...

是的。你們參與了Tritan工廠和Tritan擴建工程的部分建造嗎？

Sorry, yes. We started the construction of it, the early -- yes, Jeff, we started the early construction part of the Tritan line and then paused it. And we're going to restart that as we align it with our outlook on Tritan demand which is improving a lot this quarter. So we'll see how we judge the Tritan demand in this next quarter or when we need to get that going again to make sure we don't short the market.

抱歉，是的。我們早期就開始了Tritan生產線的建設——是的，傑夫，我們啟動了Tritan生產線的早期建設部分，然後暫停了。我們將根據對Tritan需求的預期重新啟動該生產線，因為本季Tritan的需求正在大幅改善。因此，我們將觀察下個季度Tritan需求的評估，或何時需要重新啟動生產線，以確保不造成市場短缺。

Our next question comes from John Roberts of Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的約翰羅伯茲。

Are the sig tow contracts working as expected in 2024? And do you think you get to a point where the decline in sig tow volume is offset by the new products in Fibers so that the overall segment has flat to up volume?

2024年的拖曳運輸合約是否能如預期般順利？您是否認為拖帶運輸量的下降會被纖維業務的新產品所抵消，從而使整個細分市場的運輸量持平甚至上升？

Great question. I'm a big fan of the cellulosic stream these days, John. We've gone through a rough patch for quite some time. It's great to have the structural market of the tow business back to being where it was very stable and at the profit levels that allow us to reliably supply our customers. And they're very focused on security, supply and reliability. And they placed a lot of value on us in this industry being able to provide that.

問得好。約翰，我最近特別喜歡纖維素流。我們經歷了一段相當長的一段時間的低潮。很高興看到拖車業務的結構性市場恢復到非常穩定的狀態，並且利潤水平能夠讓我們可靠地為客戶提供產品。他們非常注重安全性、供應和可靠性。他們非常看重我們在這個行業中能夠提供這些。

So our contracts, we're 100% contracted this year for volume and price. And so we feel good about the earnings stability we'll have in that business. This year, as we said, it will be somewhat better than last year. And then we've got 90% of our contracts in place for '25 and close to 70% in '26. So we feel good about how this on a tow business is going to provide stable earnings and cash, a lot of cash out of this business. And then as you just noted on top of that, you now have growth in the Fibers business that's part of that equation that allows us to sort of push our assets and utilization and value.

因此，我們今年的合約量和價格都已全部簽訂完畢。因此，我們對該業務的獲利穩定性充滿信心。正如我們所說，今年的業績會比去年略有好轉。 2025年，我們已經簽訂了90%的合同，2026年也已簽訂了近70%的合約。因此，我們對拖車業務將帶來穩定的利潤和現金流，特別是大量現金流充滿信心。此外，正如您剛才提到的，纖維業務​​也實現了成長，這也是我們業務成長的一部分，這使我們能夠提升資產利用率和價值。

And then Aventa, which is something we'll probably talk to you more about in the spring is really on a great path. This is where we figured out how to take our cellulose acetate and foam it, where it's a drop in replacement to polystyrene for protein -- chicken and pork trays in the grocery store that you see all the time or other sort of foam, clamshells, et cetera.

然後是Aventa，我們可能會在春季跟大家詳細討論一下，它目前正處於一個非常好的發展階段。我們找到如何利用醋酸纖維素進行發泡的方法，它可以直接取代聚苯乙烯來填充蛋白質——例如你在雜貨店裡經常看到的雞肉和豬肉托盤，或者其他泡沫塑膠、貝殼包裝等等。

And that industry has a serious issue about getting out of polystyrene. We have a great value proposition with a cellulosic material where it's a drop in to their existing equipment and is certified to biodegrade not just in industrial settings, but also in home settings, which is equivalent to landfill. So you really have a biodegradable solution to throw this stuff away with all the sort of meat juice and everything else that's with it that can't be recycled.

而這個產業在擺脫聚苯乙烯方面面臨嚴峻的挑戰。我們針對纖維素材料提出了極具價值的方案，它可以直接添加到他們現有的設備中，並且經過認證，不僅可以在工業環境中生物降解，還可以在家庭環境中生物降解，相當於垃圾掩埋場。所以，你真的有了一個可生物降解的解決方案，可以把這些材料和肉汁以及其他所有無法回收的物質一起丟掉。

So very big market, a lot of opportunity, good margins and something that we think will be commercial and grow this year and build into something meaningful next year. So we'll tell you a lot more about that once we have the customer announcements to go with it.

這是一個非常大的市場，機會很多，利潤豐厚，我們認為它今年將商業化，實現成長，並在明年發展成為一項有意義的業務。一旦我們發布了相關的客戶公告，我們會告訴大家更多相關資訊。

But when you put all that together, it does turn the cellulosic stream into a growth stream along with the polyester stream, both tied to sustainability and circular economy trends that are presenting a huge amount of volume growth. Like Tritan replacing polycarbonate BPA, we can have much higher growth rate than the underlying markets as we're replacing polystyrene or we're replacing other plastics of the recycled-content-made products that can give us a lot of levered growth.

但綜合起來，纖維素流確實會與聚酯流一起成為成長流，兩者都與永續發展和循環經濟趨勢息息相關，而這些趨勢正在帶來巨大的產量成長。就像Tritan取代聚碳酸酯BPA一樣，我們可以實現遠高於基礎市場的成長率，因為我們正在用再生材料取代聚苯乙烯，或用其他塑膠製品取代再生材料，這些產品可以為我們帶來巨大的槓桿成長。

And the one thing you know about Advanced Materials on both sides is there's a lot of fixed cost leverage. So you've seen the sort of pain of that in the fourth quarter of '22 and '23, but it looks exactly the same on the way up. So as you get volume coming back, the fixed cost leverage of these very high-margin products across specialty plastics and now some of it inside cellulosics, which also has a lot of fixed cost is very attractive.

關於先進材料，有一點大家都知道，那就是雙方都有很大的固定成本槓桿。所以，在2022年和2023年第四季度，你已經看到了這種痛苦，但在上升過程中，情況看起來完全一樣。因此，隨著銷售回升，這些高利潤產品（包括特殊塑料，現在也包括纖維素塑料）的固定成本槓桿非常有吸引力，因為這些產品的固定成本也很高。

Our next question comes from Mike Sison of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Nice outlook for '24 so far. Just curious, Mark, your volumes were down mid-single digits in the fourth. It's been quite some time since we've seen volume growth. When do you think AFP and AM will sort of turn the quarter? And what type of volume growth do you think the businesses need to generate to hit the midpoint of your guide?

到目前為止，2024年的前景不錯。馬克，我只是好奇，你們的銷量在第四季下降了中個位數。我們已經很久沒有看到銷量成長了。您認為AFP和AM什麼時候能在本季有所起色？您認為這些企業需要實現什麼樣的銷售成長才能達到您預期的中點？

Yes, it's a great question. I think that we'll certainly turn the quarter in Q2 and the back half of this year. It's a much closer call in Q1 because of some of these unique things I've talked about overall. These timing on fills and customer buying and Fibers is a bit bumpy. And you still have some destocking going on in ag and medical, those kind of things that are certainly weighed on Q4, and will weigh on Q1 to some degree.

是的，這個問題問得很好。我認為我們肯定會在第二季和今年下半年扭轉頹勢。由於我之前談到的一些特殊因素，第一季的情況會更加膠著。例如，在填充料、客戶購買和纖維方面的時機方面，情況有些坎坷。而且，農業和醫療領域仍在進行一些去庫存化，這些因素肯定會對第四季度造成壓力，並且在一定程度上也會對第一季造成壓力。

But we are seeing volumes improve in sort of the core businesses, are the -- ones, especially the ones that all started destocking earlier, whether it's consumer durables, building construction, et cetera. You can definitely see that destocking is over. We just don't have everything done with that topic. I'll be happy to see it. It is extraordinary when you think about it.

但我們看到核心業務的銷售量有所改善，尤其是那些早期開始去庫存的業務，無論是耐用消費品、建築施工等等。你肯定可以看到去庫存的階段已經結束。只是我們還沒有完全完成這個主題。我很高興看到這一點。想想看，這真是非同尋常。

We're sort of in the sixth quarter of destocking. 2020 had like 2 quarters and 2009 had like 3 quarters. So we are in unchartered territory on this destocking thing, and we all need to own that. But you can definitely see it's coming to an end, and we're happy to get our production volumes connected back to markets. And that will give us a nice recovery this year.

我們差不多正處於去庫存的第六季。 2020年大概有兩個季度，2009年大概有三個季度。所以，我們在去庫存方面處於未知領域，我們都需要承擔責任。但你肯定能看到去庫存即將結束，我們很高興我們的產量能夠重新與市場接軌。這將使我們今年實現良好的復甦。

Got it. And then just a quick follow-up on adjusted EBIT margins for AFP and AM, it. Looks like you'll see some improvement in '24 versus '23. But historically, there have been -- both of those have been closer to 20%. Is that sort of where you think margins can get to over time?

明白了。接下來我想快速跟進AFP和AM的調整後息稅前利潤率。看起來24年相比23年會有所改善。但從歷史上看，這兩家公司的利潤率都接近20%。您認為利潤率隨著時間的推移會達到這個水準嗎？

Mike, this is Willie. As Mark highlighted, as we get the benefits of the fixed cost leverage as well as we get the mix upgrades with our circular solution. We definitely believe both AM and AFP can grow back to those and towards those 20% type margins.

麥克，我是威利。正如馬克所強調的那樣，我們既獲得了固定成本槓桿的優勢，又透過循環解決方案實現了產品組合的升級。我們堅信AM和AFP都能恢復到先前的水平，並朝著20%的利潤率邁進。

Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

Are you likely to stagger construction of methanolysis number 2 and number 3? Or do you think you're in a strong enough capital position and confidence in this business to build the two simultaneously?

你們會錯開甲醇分解二號和三號計畫的建設嗎？或者，你們認為你們有足夠的資金和信心同時建造這兩個項目嗎？

I would highlight, we would expect that we would stagger these, Aleksey. There is not going to be a significant difference, but they will definitely be staggered with the France project as Mark said, breaking ground in late summer. And then as we make progress on that, we would look to then shortly after that to start our second U.S. project.

我想強調的是，阿列克謝，我們預期這些項目會錯開。不會有太大的差別，但正如馬克所說，它們肯定會與法國計畫錯開，法國計畫將在夏末破土動工。隨著我們在這方面取得進展，我們計劃在那之後不久啟動我們的第二個美國計畫。

And staying on the same topic, do you have any significant number of customers who might be on the fence right now telling you they'd like to see the Kingsport plant start up, and then if that works well, there could be a lot more customers willing to sign up for the other two?

繼續討論這個主題，您是否有大量客戶現在可能還在猶豫，告訴您他們希望看到金斯波特工廠啟動，如果進展順利，可能會有更多的客戶願意簽署另外兩家工廠？

No, we definitely think so. I mean this industry doesn't have a lot of examples of inventing and having successful environmental technology solutions, whether it's recycled content or carbon efficiency. So customers are cautious about how much they want to sign up and buy until they really have proof that it's going to be available reliably at prices that make sense to them.

不，我們絕對這麼認為。我的意思是，這個行業並沒有太多發明並成功實施環境技術解決方案的案例，無論是回收材料還是碳效率。因此，消費者在註冊和購買數量方面非常謹慎，直到他們真正有證據證明這些產品能夠以他們能接受的價格可靠地供應。

And so I think we're already in the market, fortunately, confirming our price expectations with the Pepsi contract, with the specialties that we're already selling. So we feel good about that. But I think there is a lot of potential pent-up demand once the plant is up and running and validated, that will certainly help load this plant. Obviously, that's part of our assumption around the $75 million of incremental EBITDA this year and that will help give us upside to it. The downside, of course, is markets are weak.

所以我認為我們已經進入市場，幸運的是，百事可樂的合約以及我們已經在售的特色產品證實了我們的價格預期。所以我們對此感到滿意。但我認為，一旦工廠投入運作並得到驗證，就會有大量潛在的被壓抑的需求，這肯定會幫助提高工廠的產能。顯然，這是我們今年7500萬美元增量EBITDA預測的一部分，這將有助於我們獲利。當然，不利的一面是市場疲軟。

And so there's just a limitation at the rate at which customers are going to launch products in a weak market. And so you have to net those together in trying to come up with the appropriate forecast, which we've attempted to do with this $75 million EBITDA guide for the first plant for this year. And then obviously, that will continue to ramp up and be a significant tailwind in '25 relative to '24.

因此，在疲軟的市場中，客戶推出產品的速度確實有限。因此，我們必須綜合考慮這些因素，才能得出適當的預測。我們今年第一家工廠的EBITDA（息稅折舊攤提前利潤）預計為7500萬美元，這顯然是可行的。顯然，2025年，相較於2024年，EBITDA將持續成長，並成為顯著的利多因素。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Mark, if the methanolysis startup and ramp goes smoothly such that you earn $75 million in EBITDA, as you've indicated, what could that earnings level become in 2025?

馬克，如果甲醇分解的啟動和產量提升進展順利，如您所說，您的 EBITDA 可以達到 7500 萬美元，那麼 2025 年的盈利水平會達到多少呢？

Kevin, this is Willie. What I would highlight is as we've talked about, roughly $50 million of EBITDA will come in the Advanced Materials segment. That's primarily in the second half. So as I think about where we'll be, effectively we'll be at greater than a $75 million EBITDA run rate within that business.

凱文，我是威利。我想強調的是，正如我們之前討論過的，大約5000萬美元的EBITDA將來自先進材料業務。這主要發生在下半年。所以，考慮到我們的實際業績，我們該業務的EBITDA實際運作率將超過7500萬美元。

We've got a strong pathway to exiting 2025 as we think about brands and being able to connect them to even more brand launches in '25. That will be at roughly a $150 million run rate as we exit '25. And then ultimately, we expect greater than $150 million of EBITDA from this facility on an annual basis.

我們正在考慮在2025年之前將品牌與更多品牌的發布聯繫起來，這為我們提供了一條通往2025年目標的堅實道路。到2025年，我們的營運規模將達到約1.5億美元。最終，我們預計該工廠的年息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）將超過1.5億美元。

Perfect. I appreciate that. And secondly, if I may, Mark, I want to come back to the Fibers discussion. I think it's interesting that you've got so much under contract through 2026. When we talk about a lot of the output being under contract, can you speak to -- does that just mean the volume is committed? Or can you speak to the degree to which you've got visibility into both pricing and cost? Just trying to get a sense for kind of the confidence intervals around the economics through '26.

太好了，非常感謝。其次，馬克，如果可以的話，我想回到纖維的討論。我覺得很有趣的是，你們簽了這麼多到2026年的合約。當我們談到許多產出都處於合約狀態時，您能否談談——這是否僅僅意味著產量已經承諾？或者您能否談談您對定價和成本的可預見性程度？只是想了解一下到2026年為止的經濟狀況的置信區間。

Yes. So the sort of the commitments we have in '25 and '26 with the market is both on price and cost. It covers both. Now there's ranges in the volume side, right, so they have a min and a max on volume. But the pricing formula, which in most cases include -- these prices will then adjust based on changes in energy and raw material. So it's sort of cost pass-through, if you will, to some degree.

是的。所以我們在2025年和2026年對市場的承諾既包括價格，也包括成本。價格和成本都涵蓋了。現在產量方面有一個範圍，對吧，所以產量有最小值和最大值。但定價公式（在大多數情況下包括）會根據能源和原材料的變化進行調整。所以，在某種程度上，這可以說是一種成本轉嫁。

So these margins, if we get a tailwind, we'll share that with the customers. If costs go up, we'll raise our prices formulaically. But that is the nature of most of these contracts, not all, but most have some version of pricing it, a lot of it includes the CPT. So no, that's -- but there's always a little bit of potential volume decline in the market that we have to accommodate with them. So that part has room for sort of changes in market demand.

所以，如果我們的利潤順風順水，我們會與客戶分享。如果成本上升，我們會照慣例提高價格。但大多數合約（並非所有合約）的性質都是如此，但大多數合約都有某種定價方式，許多合約都包含了成本控制費用（CPT）。所以，市場總有潛在的銷售量下降，我們必須適應。所以這部分市場需求的改變是有空間的。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Can you -- on the renewable side, can you discuss how the policy landscape is shifting in terms of the potential incentives you may receive for this second and third plant compared to what you had initially expected or broader policy shifts that might be incentivizing customers?

在再生能源方面，您能否討論一下與您最初預期的相比，政策格局如何變化，即您可能從第二家和第三家工廠獲得的潛在激勵措施，或者可能激勵客戶的更廣泛的政策變化？

Sure. So two different sets of topics there. On the incentives, the European Union and the governments within it have certain prescribed methodologies around how they do incentives, and we are working to get the higher end of what's allowed in the European Union. We're in the middle of finalizing that, so I can't talk about it right now. But there are some improvements we expect to get as the inflationary environment has impacted the CapEx cost. So we feel good about where we're at on that.

當然。所以這是兩組不同的主題。關於激勵措施，歐盟及其各國政府對於如何實施激勵措施都有既定的方法，我們正在努力達到歐盟允許的上限。我們正在最終確定，所以我現在無法談論。但由於通膨環境影響了資本支出成本，我們預期會有一些改進。因此，我們對目前的進展感到滿意。

When it comes to the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act is out there. As I think we discussed in the third quarter call, we do have an application in to them. We have not yet been notified about whether or not we'll get that reward and what the level of the reward will be. We've asked for a substantial amount of capital because it would support some very impressive environmental investments around the plant that allow that plant to be carbon neutral which would be extremely attractive.

就美國而言，《通膨削減法案》已經出台。我記得我們在第三季電話會議上討論過，我們確實已經向法案提交了申請。我們尚未收到是否能獲得獎勵以及獎勵金額的通知。我們申請了一筆可觀的資金，因為這筆資金將支持工廠週邊一些非常令人印象深刻的環境投資，使工廠實現碳中和，這將極具吸引力。

There are two things customers want right now, 100% recycled content. They don't want anything less, because they want to have a bold claim. And they want to be carbon neutral or as close to that as possible. And so the second and third plants are both capable of being carbon neutral, and they are obviously capable of delivering 100% recycled content. So there's a lot of interest and attraction to making sure these kind of plants get built. But it's a political process, and I never want to guess politics until I know what the incentives are. We'll just wait and see what they do.

目前客戶有兩點需求：100% 再生材料。他們不想要更低的，因為他們想要一個大膽的宣言。他們也希望實現碳中和，或盡可能接近碳中和。因此，第二和第三家工廠都能夠實現碳中和，顯然能夠提供 100% 再生材料。因此，確保這類工廠的建設引起了廣泛的興趣和吸引力。但這是一個政治過程，在了解激勵機制之前，我絕對不會去猜測政治走向。我們拭目以待，拭目以待。

When it comes to the policy for the circular economy, the European policy in place that they're finalizing the rules on as we speak, is very attractive for driving demand of the product. So it's a -- it requires circularity in certain percentage targets for like beverages, 25% by next year. And the industry only probably has half of the capacity mechanically to serve that. So there's a lot of demand and market need in that space.

說到循環經濟政策，歐洲目前正在最終敲定的政策對推動產品需求非常有吸引力。它要求飲料等產品的循環利用率達到一定比例，例如到明年達到25%。而該產業的機械產能可能只有一半能夠滿足這個目標。所以，該領域的需求和市場需求很大。

And then all packaging needs to be 30% by recycled content. As I mentioned earlier, no one wants 25% or 30%, every customer we're talking to wants 100%. So the demand is probably in excess of the regulatory requirements, but there's definitely requirements that will force people to start getting recycle content. It also requires the content to be made from packaging place in the European market. So it allows that to be a regional circular business. So we're still waiting for all of that to be finalized, but that's sort of where it's headed at this point as we understand it.

然後，所有包裝都必須含有30%的再生材料。正如我之前提到的，沒有人想要25%或30%，我們接觸的每個客戶都希望達到100%。因此，需求可能超出了監管要求，但肯定會有一些要求迫使人們開始使用再生材料。它還要求這些材料必須來自歐洲市場的包裝。這樣，它就可以成為一項區域性的循環經濟業務。我們仍在等待所有這些最終確定，但據我們了解，目前的情況大致如此。

The U.S. is a patchwork. So every state is developing a different point of view around circular economy and how they want it to play out. Half the country that is the more conservative states are all passing. They're very sort of favorable circle economy language. The other half, it's a patchwork. But so far, everything we've seen, our technology fits within the definitions of being a solution to the plastic waste crisis.

美國是一個拼湊的國家。每個州都在發展不同的循環經濟觀點以及他們希望如何實現循環經濟。全國一半較保守的州都通過了循環經濟法案。他們非常支持循環經濟的措詞。另一半州的情況則比較混亂。但到目前為止，我們所看到的一切，我們的技術都符合解決塑膠垃圾危機的解決方案的定義。

And then just as we start looking towards 2025 and 2026, to what extent have you pulled forward productivity that would make it more difficult to get sort of incremental productivity gains over the next few years?

那麼，當我們開始展望 2025 年和 2026 年時，你們在多大程度上提高了生產力，以至於在未來幾年內獲得漸進式生產力成長變得更加困難？

Are you talking about sort of total company or product -- I'm sorry, I just -- I'm not sure I understand the question. Are you talking about just general productivity in the company or...

您指的是整個公司還是產品？抱歉，我只是…我不確定我理解了您的問題。您指的是公司的整體生產力還是…

Yes, the kind of structural productivity gains you've been delivering kind of fairly consistently. I guess my impression is that effort ramps up in the more recent period. And so I'm just curious as to have you pulled things forward? Or should we be thinking about there's another leg of structural productivity getting over the next couple of years? Just what's the next piece of that story?

是的，您一直在持續不斷地提高結構性生產力。我的印像是，最近一段時間，您的努力增加。所以，我很好奇，您是否提前推進了工作？或者，我們應該考慮未來幾年結構性生產力會再度提升？接下來的故事是什麼？

Yes. So I think what I'd say happened to us and every company is we had extraordinary inflation in '21 and '22, and we lost productivity through COVID and work at home and everything else that I think every company, including us, is working our way through.

是的。所以我認為我們以及所有公司都經歷了2021年和2022年的通貨膨脹，而且由於新冠疫情、居家辦公以及其他各種因素，我們的生產力下降了，我認為包括我們在內的所有公司都在努力應對。

So we aggressively went after it last year, where we got $200 million of productivity above inflation to start addressing some of that sort of extraordinary inflation and get our cost structure where it should be. This year, as you saw, we're just getting enough productivity to offset inflation. So $100 million of productivity offsetting total inflation of labor and external spend.

因此，我們去年積極應對通貨膨脹，實現了高於通膨水準2億美元的生產效率，從而開始應對部分異常通膨，並將成本結構調整到應有的水準。如您所見，今年我們的生產效率剛好足以抵銷通貨膨脹。也就是說，1億美元的生產效率抵消了勞動力和外部支出的總通膨。

And so that's more normal is what I'd say. We have to have productivity every year, where we're offsetting inflation so that we have the ability to invest in growth, deliver earnings growth and cash to the shareholders all at the same time. And so that's sort of where we're at.

所以我想說，這樣比較正常。我們必須每年都保持生產力，抵消通貨膨脹，這樣我們才有能力投資成長，同時實現獲利成長和股東現金流。這就是我們現在的狀況。

And so you should expect continued productivity, but it's more in the offsetting inflation category going forward than some big additional step-up, right? The leverage for our company right now is volume recovery, especially in the specialties where the value per product is much higher than the company average. So you get volume, you get mix lift, you get fixed cost leverage, which is how we've demonstrated a lot of success in our past and certainly, the strategy we're going to be on this year and leveraging into next year with innovation.

所以你應該期待生產力持續成長，但這更多的是為了抵消通膨，而不是什麼大的額外提升，對吧？我們公司目前的槓桿是產量恢復，尤其是在特種產品領域，這些產品的單價遠高於公司平均。這樣，產量、產品組合和固定成本就都有了槓桿，而這正是我們過去取得巨大成功的方式，當然，這也是我們今年將堅持的策略，並將透過創新在明年繼續發揮槓桿作用。

Let's make the next question the last one, please. Alex?

請將下一個問題作為最後一個問題。亞歷克斯？

Our final question for today comes from Salvator Tiano from Bank of America.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Salvator Tiano。

I just want to ask about the M&A landscape. What are you seeing here? And now that it looks like things are finally improving, are you more incentivized to go out and look for specific targets?

我只是想問一下目前的併購狀況。您看到了什麼？現在情況似乎終於有所好轉，您是否更有動力去尋找具體的目標？

Yes, Salvator, this is Willie. What I would highlight is, I think we've shown that we're disciplined with our portfolio overall. As we think about priorities for bolt-ons, which we're always looking for those bolt-ons, would be within our Additives & Functional Products and Advanced Materials segment. But our key focus that we have right now is continuing to execute on our organic growth program. But to your point, there's probably better deal space coming as there's both a recovery from a business standpoint and the rate environment is changing.

是的，薩爾瓦托，我是威利。我想強調的是，我認為我們已經展現出我們對整體投資組合的嚴謹態度。我們一直在尋找補充性業務，而我們考慮的重點是添加劑和功能性產品以及先進材料業務。但我們目前的重點是繼續執行我們的有機成長計劃。正如您所說，隨著業務復甦和利率環境的變化，未來可能會有更好的交易空間。

All right. Thank you, everybody, for joining us. I hope you have a great day.

好的。謝謝大家的參與。祝大家今天愉快。

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以掛斷電話了。