伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the First Quarter 2023 Eastman Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加 2023 年第一季伊士曼電話會議。

Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com. We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。現在我們將電話轉給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thanks, Brenda, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; William McLain, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝，布倫達，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起通話的是董事會主席兼執行長馬克‧科斯塔 (Mark Costa)；威廉‧麥克萊恩 (William McLain)，資深副總裁兼財務長；以及投資者關係經理 Jake LaRoe。

Yesterday, after market closed, we posted our first quarter 2023 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing. Our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website, eastman.com.

昨天，市場收盤後，我們發布了 2023 年第一季財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件。我們的幻燈片和相關的準備好的評論都放在我們網站 eastman.com 的投資者部分。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our first quarter 2023 financial results news release.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在我們的 2023 年第一季財務業績新聞稿中詳細說明。

During this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks, and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for full year 2022 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for first quarter of 2023.

在本次電話會議中，在前面的幻燈片和準備好的演講中，以及在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，包括提交的 2022 年全年 10-K 表格和將於 2023 年第一季度提交的 10-Q 表格。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the first quarter 2023 financial results news release.

其次，本簡報中提到的收益不包括某些非核心和不尋常的項目。 2023 年第一季財務業績新聞稿中提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳以及其他相關揭露，包括排除和調整項目的描述。

As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we'll go straight into questions. Brenda, please let's start with our first question.

由於我們昨晚在網站上發布了幻燈片和隨附的準備好的發言稿，因此我們將直接進入提問環節。布倫達，請讓我們從第一個問題開始。

Our first question comes from the line of David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank.

我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

And Mark, just on Fibers. I saw you increased the full year guidance, what was behind that? And how sustainable is this new high level of earnings in Fibers?

馬克，我們來談談纖維。我看到您提高了全年業績預期，背後的原因是什麼？那麼 Fibers 的獲利水準再創新高能維持多久呢？

David, great question. What -- we're really excited about it. It's just fantastic to see this kind of improvement in the Fibers business, which we do think is structural and stable going beyond this year into the future. The key drivers for the improvement were obviously a pretty significant increase in price associated with making sure we're providing enough earnings and cash flow from this business to invest in it and be a secure supplier.

大衛，這個問題問得好。什麼——我們對此感到非常興奮。看到纖維業務取得這樣的進步真是太棒了，我們認為這種進步是結構性的，並且在今年和未來都將保持穩定。推動這一改善的關鍵因素顯然是價格的大幅上漲，這確保了我們從這項業務中獲得了足夠的收益和現金流，從而可以對其進行投資並成為安全的供應商。

So we've got improvements on price/cost relationship. We've got improvements in our operational performance, which has turned out to be better than expected because we've also raised our guide from $275 million to $350 million that price cost being better. Our operational cost improvements in this business being better and the textile business, really showing a lot of growth right now. Even though the overall market is pretty depressed, the sustainable value propositions we have are really driving a lot of growth for us relative to the underlying markets. It's just another example of how our innovation model creates a lot of growth even in tough markets.

因此，我們在價格/成本關係方面取得了改善。我們的營運表現有所改善，結果比預期的要好，因為我們也將指導價從 2.75 億美元提高到 3.5 億美元，價格成本更低。我們該業務的營運成本改善得更好，紡織業務目前確實顯示出很大的成長。儘管整體市場相當低迷，但我們所擁有的永續價值主張確實為我們帶來了相對於基礎市場的大幅成長。這只是我們的創新模式即使在艱難的市場中也能創造巨大成長的另一個例子。

When it comes to the stability question, there are some factors that I discussed in January, and I'll just hit them again quickly. The market structure in the tow business, has fundamentally changed from what we've been facing over the last decade. Part of it is the demand didn't decline nearly as much as we feared over the last 10 years, really declined only about 1% a year decline versus 2% to 3%.

談到穩定性問題，我在一月份討論過一些因素，我很快就會再次討論它們。與過去十年相比，拖車行業的市場結構已經發生了根本性的變化。部分原因是過去 10 年需求下降幅度遠沒有我們擔心的那麼大，實際上每年僅下降約 1%，而不是 2% 至 3%。

And we've had the heat-not-burn segment really growing quite strongly. That also still uses filter tow, in fact more filter tow than a traditional cigarette growing over 15% a year, creating stability in that market. So the market is only down about 10% when you look at the last decade, and now China is even showing some modest growth in sort of the 1% range, which is about half of the cigarette global market.

我們的加熱不燃燒領域確實成長強勁。該產品仍使用過濾嘴絲束，事實上，過濾嘴絲束的用量比傳統香菸還要多，並且每年的增長速度超過 15%，從而保證了該市場的穩定性。因此，回顧過去十年，市場僅下降了約 10%，而現在中國甚至顯示出 1% 左右的溫和成長，約佔全球香菸市場的一半。

So that's been really helpful. In addition, our growth in textiles allowed us to focus and fill up our assets and repurpose assets towards textiles in a way to sort of see value not just on focusing on the tow market.

這真的很有幫助。此外，我們在紡織品領域的成長使我們能夠集中精力充實我們的資產，並將資產重新用於紡織品，以便從某種程度上看到價值，而不僅僅是關注拖車市場。

On the supply side, we've also seen pretty significant reduction in supply on 2 fronts. First, about 15% of capacity has been shut down by a number of players in the industry, including us repurposing some of our capacity towards the textile business. And we've probably lost effective capacity in the 10% to 15% range as we've gone to making much more specialty items, the slim tow filters as well as TiO2 free, the heat-not-burn are all more complicated and run slower on the assets.

在供應方面，我們也看到兩個方面的供應量大幅減少。首先，業內一些企業已經關閉了約15%的產能，其中我們也將部分產能轉用於紡織業務。而且，由於我們轉而生產更多特殊產品，我們的有效產能可能已經損失了 10% 到 15%，細長型過濾器以及不含 TiO2 的加熱不燃燒產品都更加複雜，資產運行速度也更慢。

So we've lost a lot of effective capacity. So you're at least a net 15% reduction in capacity, putting us in the 90% to 100% range on utilization.

因此我們損失了許多有效產能。因此，產能至少淨減少了 15%，利用率達到 90% 到 100%。

So the markets are tight, and that's resulted in customers being very focused. Again, on security of supply, the cost of a tow filter is a small percent of the price of the cigarette. So you don't want to be missing out supplying the market for such a small cost item. And we're working very closely to make sure we've got contracts in place, which we do for this year and by the summer, probably the vast majority of the contracts will be completed for the next 2 years beyond this one. And that sort of puts these kind of improvements in place.

因此市場緊張，導致客戶非常關注。再次，就供應安全而言，一根過濾嘴的成本只佔香菸價格的一小部分。因此，您不會想錯過這種低成本產品的市場供應。我們正在密切合作，以確保我們今年的合約已經到位，到今年夏天，未來兩年的合約絕大部分可能都會完成。這就使得這類改進得以實現。

So we feel really good about where we're at, and this is a great source of earnings and cash flow to invest in the growth of the overall portfolio.

因此，我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意，這是投資於整體投資組合成長的重要收益和現金流來源。

Very good. And just a methanolysis, given the delay you highlighted today in the project in Kingsport, do you have an updated forecast of losses or EBITDA drag from this business in 2023?

非常好。僅就甲醇分解而言，鑑於您今天強調的金斯波特項目的延遲，您是否對 2023 年該業務的損失或 EBITDA 拖累有最新的預測？

What I would highlight is, I don't expect a significant increase in the growth spend for the full year. I would highlight the key point is we're on track to produce commercial quantities this fall, and we'll have revenue before year-end. So on the cost basis, not a significant impact. I would highlight our overall capital spend expectations for 2023 at $800 million. I'm confident that we'll be able to complete the construction within that level of investment as well. And we will deliver the investment returns that we've committed to for this project.

我想強調的是，我預計全年成長支出不會大幅增加。我想強調的關鍵一點是，我們預計在今年秋季實現商業化生產，並且在年底前就能獲得收入。因此從成本角度來看，影響並不大。我想強調的是，我們對 2023 年的整體資本支出預期為 8 億美元。我相信我們也能夠在這樣的投資水準內完成建設。我們將實現對該項目承諾的投資回報。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Mark, I saw this week an article talking about that you had the successful completion of sort of recycling project for automotive mixed plastic waste. I think they call it automotive shredder residue. Could you talk a little bit about that? And what you think the opportunity set is for you here? Is it similar to what you're doing on the consumer side of the equation? Just where is this in its life cycle?

馬克，本週我看到一篇文章，說您成功完成了汽車混合塑膠廢棄物的回收專案。我認為他們稱之為汽車粉碎機殘留物。能稍微談一下這個嗎？您認為這裡為您帶來了什麼機會？這與您在消費者方面所做的事情類似嗎？這到底處於生命週期的哪個階段？

Vince, a great question. And it highlights that sustainability and opportunities to grow our portfolio go well beyond just polyester cycling and our cellulosic growth. We're looking at all forms and fashions of how we can lean into this trend that's disrupting the markets and creating a lot of growth opportunity.

文斯，這個問題問得好。它強調了永續性和擴大我們產品組合的機會遠遠超出了聚酯循環和纖維素增長。我們正在研究各種形式和方式，以適應這個顛覆市場並創造大量成長機會的趨勢。

As you know, the automotive market has a huge need to do with how to recycle all these cars and all the components of the cars as well as the waste in the process before making it through making the car. And so we have several programs, we're doing both in Europe and the U.S. on looking at every place that we can lean into that. So, for example, with all the interiors, all of the polyester that's involved in the making of the interiors or recycling that polyester that is a take-back program, we can do effectively for our polyester recycling technology project.

眾所周知，汽車市場對如何回收所有這些汽車、汽車的所有零件以及在製造汽車之前產生的廢物有著巨大的需求。因此，我們在歐洲和美國都開展了多個項目，尋找我們可以依賴的每一個地方。舉例來說，對於所有的內飾，所有用於製造內飾的聚酯纖維，或者回收聚酯纖維，這是一個回收計劃，我們可以有效地開展聚酯纖維回收技術項目。

We're also working with the auto sector on how to recycle all the PVB polymer and the interlayers around glass. It's a stunning amount of waste, both in the glass and the interlayers and we are developing our own molecular recycling processes on how to take that PVB back and close that loop as another circular program. We don't talk that much about it because it's a little bit earlier in development. But it's another driver for advanced materials and how we can be a much more unique supplier to the auto industry.

我們也與汽車產業合作，研究如何回收所有 PVB 聚合物和玻璃周圍的夾層。玻璃和夾層中的廢棄物數量驚人，我們正在開發自己的分子回收工藝，以回收 PVB 並作為另一個循環程序完成該循環。我們對此談論不多，因為它的開發還處於早期階段。但這是先進材料的另一個驅動力，也是我們如何成為汽車產業更獨特的供應商的原因。

Lots of companies are engaging these programs for all the interesting reasons. We're pretty uniquely positioned for the textile part of a car as well as the glass part to really be the leader in delivering those solutions versus anyone else on the planet. So a lot is going on in that space.

許多公司都因為各種有趣的原因參與這些專案。我們在汽車紡織零件和玻璃零件方面具有獨特的優勢，與世界上任何其他公司相比，我們在提供這些解決方案方面真正處於領先地位。所以那個領域發生了很多事情。

And then just as a follow-up in your regular business, you called out auto as being strong in the quarter, and you also anticipate there being growth in the second quarter sequentially. I'm just trying to compare and contrast that some of the other folks that are out there that have a lot of auto exposure, thought that maybe 1Q builds, maybe were a little bit of a pull forward from 2Q. So is that not what you're seeing? Or is your comments reflective more of just your portfolio of products rather than sort of what's going on in the broader industry from a builds perspective.

然後，作為您常規業務的後續，您指出本季度汽車業務表現強勁，您也預計第二季將出現環比增長。我只是想比較和對比一下，其他一些擁有大量自動曝光的人認為，也許第一季的構建可能比第二季度略有提前。那麼這不是你所看到的嗎？或者您的評論更多地反映的是您的產品組合，而不是從建築角度反映整個行業正在發生的事情。

Yes. From a total builds perspective, Vincent, I don't think our view is all that different than what you just said. I mean Q1 was certainly a bit better than expected as we highlighted. I don't think we're seeing in a total production basis, a big sequential trend of improvement from Q1 to Q2. I'd say it's holding. It's incrementally better. But our position in the market is very different than this broad production data.

是的。文森特，從整體構建的角度來看，我認為我們的觀點與您剛才所說的話並沒有什麼不同。我的意思是，正如我們所強調的，第一季肯定比預期要好一些。我認為，從整體產量來看，我們並沒有看到從第一季到第二季出現大幅連續改善的趨勢。我想說它正在堅持。它正在逐漸變得更好。但我們在市場上的地位與這些廣泛的生產數據有很大不同。

So when you think about the Advanced Materials business, the products that we're making, whether it's the high end, high-value paint protection films or window films or it's the high interlayers or the multifunctional films going into EVs. We're really positioned in the much higher premium into the marketplace. So about 70% of these very high-value products are targeted at high-end premium market, which is about 25% of auto builds. And that part of the market is actually growing in the sort of high-single digits.

因此，當您考慮先進材料業務時，我們生產的產品，無論是高端、高價值的漆面保護膜或窗膜，還是用於電動車的高夾層或多功能薄膜。我們確實處於市場高端的定位。因此，大約 70% 的超高價值產品都瞄準高端市場，約佔汽車產量的 25%。而這部分市場其實正以高個位數的速度成長。

So those markets are holding up a lot better than the overall market. And so we're getting a lot of lift, it's because of our unique focus in that space and growing at the double-digit level. So not only we growing with those markets, we're winning a lot of very high-value mix applications in that space.

因此這些市場的表現比整體市場好得多。因此，我們獲得了很大的提升，這是因為我們在該領域的獨特關注以及兩位數的成長。因此，我們不僅與這些市場共同成長，而且還在該領域贏得了許多高價值的混合應用。

And what also helps us is we're not losing any volume because we're not in the combustion engine drivetrain at all. We have no presence there, right? We're in glass. We're in the coatings. And so as these markets do well, we get absolute growth, and we don't have any offsets because we don't have exposure to the engines that are being sort of switched over to electric.

而且對我們有幫助的是，我們不會損失任何音量，因為我們根本不使用內燃機傳動系統。我們沒有在那裡駐紮，對嗎？我們在玻璃裡。我們從事塗料行業。因此，隨著這些市場表現良好，我們獲得了絕對成長，我們沒有任何抵消，因為我們沒有接觸過正在轉換為電動的引擎。

So in that, I think we're really in a good position about that. And as we've told you, you get that additional leverage with 3.5x the volume in EVs, et cetera. So we're doing really well because of our strategy, because of our innovation and because of the position we have in the market. And that's a pretty good for AM. I would note that AFP is more connected to the broad auto production market. So their growth rates a little more modest because they serve the broad spectrum of the market versus just the high end.

因此，我認為我們在這方面確實處於有利地位。正如我們告訴您的那樣，您可以透過 3.5 倍的電動車交易量獲得額外的槓桿作用，等等。因此，我們之所以做得非常好，是因為我們擁有策略、創新以及我們在市場上的地位。這對於 AM 來說已經相當不錯了。我想指出的是，AFP 與廣泛的汽車生產市場聯繫更為緊密。因此，他們的成長率比較溫和，因為他們服務於廣泛的市場，而不僅僅是高端市場。

We now have Josh Spector from UBS.

現在我們請到的是瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

Just curious if you could talk to what you see the underlying level of volume declines in the portfolio today, kind of excluding destocking and really trying to think about how you're thinking about volumes developing from first quarter, second quarter and what's baked into the second half and drive some of your EPS uplift that you're looking for?

我只是好奇，您是否可以談談您認為目前投資組合中交易量下降的基本水平，排除去庫存因素，並真正思考一下您如何看待第一季度、第二季度的交易量發展，以及下半年的哪些因素推動了您所期望的每股收益提升？

Sure. So I think it's important to start with the total volume numbers, and then I'll try and sort of bring it down to the specifics on your question. So if you think about the fourth quarter and the first quarter, the consumer discretionary markets like consumer durables, B&C, those kind of markets, electronics have seen a just significant drop in primary demand as well as a significant amount of destocking, and it goes back to the retail channel massively overstocked going from sort of an inventory ratio 1x to sales to 2x plus led to a huge amount of change in demand. And then pull that apart, that story that we told in January about the markets, this market area being down 40% and retail sales being down about 10%. You got to remember, retail sales is dollars. So if you back out inflation, you're talking about volumes being down 15%, 20% on a volume basis. It's a pretty significant drop in demand for all the reasons I think have been well discussed about, COVID and supply chain, et cetera.

當然。因此，我認為首先要了解總量數字，然後我會嘗試將其歸結到您問題的具體內容。因此，如果您考慮一下第四季度和第一季度，那麼非必需消費品市場（例如耐用消費品、B&C 等市場、電子產品）的主要需求已經大幅下降，同時庫存也大幅減少，這又回到了零售渠道大量庫存過剩的情況，庫存與銷售額的比率從 1 倍上升到 2 倍以上，導致需求發生巨大變化。然後將其分開，我們在一月份講述的有關市場的故事，這個市場區域下降了 40％，零售額下降了約 10％。你必須記住，零售額是以美元計算的。因此，如果排除通貨膨脹因素，交易量將下降 15% 或 20%。由於我認為已經充分討論過的所有原因，例如 COVID 和供應鏈等，需求出現了相當大的下降。

And that trend continued, in fact, got a little bit worse in the first quarter from the fourth quarter when it came to the destocking. So we see that playing out and that destocking in durables continuing to go. There's just phenomenally long supply chains in this space, especially for us because we're manufacturing. We're very -- North America centric manufacturing. So all of our; specialty plastics are made here, then they have to be shipped to China, typically to be made into different components and then go through warehouses and then component makers and then brands and then warehouses and then finally at retail back in the U.S. and Europe. So it's just a very long supply chain to destock.

事實上，這種趨勢從第四季開始持續，在第一季去庫存化過程中甚至變得更糟。因此，我們看到這種情況正在發生，耐用品去庫存現象仍在繼續。這個領域的供應鏈非常長，特別是對我們來說，因為我們是製造業。我們的製造業以北美為中心。所以我們所有人；特種塑膠在這裡生產，然後運往中國，通常製成不同的零件，然後經過倉庫、零件製造商、品牌商、倉庫，最後回到美國和歐洲的零售店。因此，去庫存只是一個非常長的供應鏈。

And that's sort of what you see going on. We do see signs of that destocking ending in May. But what we would say about these discretionary markets, whether it's durables or the same kind of story in building construction, those trends on the primary demand, we are now forecasting to stay at these low levels for the rest of the year. It's possible the world will get stabilize and get better and there will be some restocking, but none of that is in our forecast. We just have the end of destocking in these discretionary markets. I would note in building construction, we're assuming things have been bad for a while in Europe and Asia. So that's not really a destocking sort of just low demand. But we do see things decelerate in the U.S. and have factored that in consistent with our coating customers.

這就是你所看到正在發生的事情。我們確實看到了五月去庫存結束的跡象。但對於這些非必需品市場，無論是耐用品還是建築業的同類情況，我們現在預測這些主要需求的趨勢在今年剩餘時間內將保持在低水平。世界可能會穩定下來，情況會好轉，庫存也會恢復，但這些都不在我們的預測之內。這些非必需消費品市場的去庫存化過程剛剛結束。我想指出的是，在建築施工方面，我們假設歐洲和亞洲的情況已經糟糕了一段時間。所以這實際上並不是去庫存，而只是需求低迷。但我們確實看到美國的情況正在放緩，並且已經將這一因素考慮在內，這與我們的塗料客戶的看法一致。

On the stable markets, I would note that we have a very different situation. Obviously, they are stable, but they still are under pressure. Low single-digit, lower demand when you look at some of the customers in that space in personal care and water treatment, et cetera, because even their demand is off. And yes, they are doing additional destocking and that, I think, has mostly played out in the first quarter. And so we're now moving back to more just sort of lower primary demand as we go into the second quarter.

在穩定的市場方面，我想指出我們的情況非常不同。顯然，他們很穩定，但仍然面臨壓力。當您查看個人護理和水處理等領域的一些客戶時，您會發現低個位數，需求較低，因為即使他們的需求也下降了。是的，他們正在進行額外的去庫存化，我認為這已經在第一季基本完成。因此，隨著進入第二季度，我們又回到了初級需求較低的狀態。

So those are sort of the dynamics across the market, and I just made comments on the auto market, which is obviously a source of strength. I'd note ag is a source of strength and holding up well. And I would note that aviation is recovering well and also a source of strength. So -- there are a few places that things are going well, places like medical and pharma, where things are really stable. And then you've got the story just hit on these demand situations.

這些就是整個市場的動態，我剛剛對汽車市場發表了評論，這顯然是一個力量來源。我注意到 ag 是力量的來源並且能夠很好地保持下去。我想指出的是，航空業正在復蘇，並且是一個力量來源。所以，有些地方的情況進展良好，例如醫療和製藥業，情況確實很穩定。然後你的故事就觸及了這些需求情況。

So as you look at the first half to second half, we've really moved to our new forecasting primary demand is going to stay at these challenged levels for the rest of the year and the only lift in demand in the back half is the end of destocking that's part of the first half challenge, that doesn't continue into the second half.

因此，當你展望上半年和下半年時，我們確實已經轉向了新的預測，主要需求將在今年剩餘時間內保持在這些挑戰水平，而下半年需求的唯一提升是去庫存的結束，這是上半年挑戰的一部分，不會持續到下半年。

Okay. I guess maybe if I could try to quantify some of that. So your volumes were down 9% in the first quarter, is your primary demand down low-single digits. Just when you talk about demand consistent first half, second half, you talked about a number of weak markets going through your Slide 13, and I don't need to rehash all that. But just what numbers are we looking at there roughly in terms of some of those markets?

好的。我想也許我可以嘗試量化其中的一些。因此，第一季你們的銷量下降了 9%，主要需求下降了個位數。就在您談論上半年和下半年需求穩定時，您談到了第 13 張幻燈片中出現的一些疲軟市場，我不需要重複這些內容。但是，就某些市場而言，我們大致看到了哪些數字呢？

Yes. So I think every story is a little bit different. But to keep it simple, you've got primary demand that's down and probably explaining aggregate, it's a little tough to break that out, but it's 1/3 to 1/2 of the -- let's call it, 1/3 of the story, probably 50% of the story is destocking in the first quarter. And then there is a 10%, 20% of the total decline that is places where we're seeding share. So discipline in price means you don't chase every KG. And in that case, what we have is place like especially AFP and CI, very low-value markets where we're just not chasing that share.

是的。所以我認為每個故事都有點不同。但簡單來說，主要需求下降，這或許可以解釋總體情況，要具體說明這一點有點困難，但它佔了 1/3 到 1/2 — — 我們姑且稱之為 1/3 的情況，大概 50% 的情況是第一季度的去庫存化。然後，總下降幅度達到 10% 到 20%，而這些地區正是我們播種的份額。因此，價格紀律意味著你不會追逐每一公斤。在這種情況下，我們所擁有的尤其是 AFP 和 CI 這樣的低價值市場，我們不會追逐這些份額。

Architectural in China margins are incredibly low. We're not going to compete with the Chinese on share. We'd rather they serve that market than sort of export their products and it hits volume, but it doesn't actually hit earnings for the values although. Same is true in Chinese exports hitting Europe right now in different products, and we're choosing not to meet some of those very low offers, which is low-value market applications for us because we just sort of exacerbate price competition and it doesn't really have that big of an impact on earnings.

中國的建築利潤率非常低。我們不會與中國人競爭市場佔有率。我們寧願他們服務那個市場，而不是出口他們的產品，雖然這會影響銷量，但實際上並不會影響價值收益。目前，中國出口到歐洲的不同產品的情況也是如此，我們選擇不滿足一些非常低的報價，這對我們來說是低價值的市場應用，因為我們只是加劇了價格競爭，而對收益並沒有那麼大的影響。

So some of the volume mix is certainly market driven, as I described, some of it, which is a much smaller portion of that 9% is these kind of choices we make because that's how you have commercial excellence to maintain price discipline and stability in your important valuable markets and customers and regions. So that's how we break down this plan.

因此，正如我所描述的，一些產量組合肯定是由市場驅動的，而其中一部分，也就是那 9% 中很小的一部分，是我們做出的這類選擇，因為這是你如何在重要的、有價值的市場、客戶和地區擁有卓越的商業優勢，以維持價格紀律和穩定。這就是我們對這個計劃的分解。

We now have Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

現在我們請到的是摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

With your molecular recycling facility that will come on late this year or early next year, is all of the material that's going to be made Tritan?

你們的分子回收設施將於今年底或明年年初投入使用，所有回收材料都是 Tritan 嗎？

No. So the molecular facility, which will be coming on this fall with the current schedule that we have we'll be providing recycled content that goes into Tritan, but it also goes into a number of copolyesters. So the cosmetics sector, for example, uses our copolyesters, it's a great market. It's actually another place where demand is actually better right now with people, especially the Chinese getting back into traveling.

不。按照我們目前的計劃，分子工廠將於今年秋天投入使用，我們將提供用於 Tritan 的再生材料，但它也將用於多種共聚酯。例如，化妝品行業使用我們的共聚酯，這是一個巨大的市場。事實上，這裡是另一個需求更好的地方，人們，尤其是中國人，開始重新開始旅行。

And those brands, LVMH, L'Oreal, Clarins, all the brands, Chanel, et cetera, that we're working with in that space. They're some of the front leaders, frankly, on sustainability. They have the most aggressive recycle content targets, and they're the most determined to achieve those targets given their luxury position with the consumers that they serve. And so we see a lot of opportunity and growth in that space with recycled content.

我們在該領域合作的品牌包括 LVMH、歐萊雅、嬌韻詩、香奈兒等。坦白說，他們是永續發展領域的先鋒領袖。他們擁有最積極的回收內容目標，並且鑑於他們在所服務的消費者中的奢侈品地位，他們最決心實現這些目標。因此，我們看到回收材料領域存在著許多機會和成長。

Tritan obviously has a huge amount of opportunity. I mean one of the best market opportunities for Tritan sustainability is hydration bottles, right, whether it's Nalgene, CamelBak, all these reusable water bottles to get use -- to move away from single-use plastic is a very high value, very high-growth market, including YETI, et cetera.

Tritan 顯然擁有巨大的機會。我的意思是，Tritan 永續性的最佳市場機會之一是水瓶，無論是 Nalgene、CamelBak，所有這些可重複使用的水瓶都可以擺脫一次性塑料，這是一個價值非常高、成長非常快的市場，包括 YETI 等等。

And that market actually didn't come off as much as some of the other consumer durable markets, and it's going to show a lot more growth. So recycle content of going everything that you would think of that's natural like that, and I think it goes into products like the power tools gamble we told you with Black & Decker.

事實上，該市場並沒有像其他一些耐用消費品市場那樣大幅下滑，而且還會顯示出更大的成長。因此，回收的內容包括您能想到的所有自然資源，我認為這些資源可以用於生產像我們之前提到的 Black & Decker 電動工具這樣的產品。

And some of these other applications in electronics, where other brands are very focused on their sustainability position, and we're winning in new applications, opaque applications that are not normally where we play with Tritan because our strength is chemical resistance, durability and clarity that commands a very high price from the market because no one has a product that can match us, including being BPA free. But now we're getting to applications where the value propositions are a bit wider and still winning. So it's a combination of both. That's why the plant in France also will be half specialty to serve that cosmetics market in Europe and other high-value applications, including shrink packaging, et cetera. So it's broad-based.

在電子產品的一些其他應用中，其他品牌非常注重其可持續性地位，而我們在新的應用、不透明應用中取得了成功，這些應用通常不是我們使用 Tritan 的領域，因為我們的優勢在於耐化學性、耐用性和清晰度，這些在市場上具有很高的價格，因為沒有人的產品可以與我們匹敵，包括不含 BPA。但現在，我們正在接觸價值主張更廣泛且仍然有效的應用程式。所以這是兩者的結合。這就是為什麼法國的工廠也將半專業化，服務於歐洲化妝品市場和其他高價值應用，包括收縮包裝等。所以它具有廣泛的基礎。

So maybe I'll try it again. So I think polyester demand or Tritan demand was negative in 2022. It's negative this year because of weakness in the durable goods market. And now you're going to bring on more capacity, which the market really wants over time, but it may -- mightn't it be difficult to get up to high utilization rates in 2024, given how weak the durable goods market is or the overall demand for Tritan and other polyesters, maybe it will take you 3 years to ramp up your capacity. Is that right?

所以也許我會再試一次。因此，我認為 2022 年聚酯纖維需求或 Tritan 需求為負。今年為負是因為耐用品市場疲軟。現在你將帶來更多的產能，這也是市場隨著時間的推移真正需要的，但考慮到耐用品市場疲軟或對 Tritan 和其他聚酯的總體需求，到 2024 年達到高利用率可能並不容易，也許你需要 3 年的時間來提高產能。是嗎？

Yes. So Jeff, that's a very good and related question to my answer. We are adding a significant chunk of capacity in Tritan, as we've told you, that is a way to sort of grow total volume for the company and sort of very strong drive demand. And you're correct, Tritan goes into consumer durables, -- that is one of its key end markets and certainly seeing significant demand pressure in the fourth quarter of last year and this year.

是的。傑夫，這是一個非常好的問題，與我的回答相關。正如我們告訴您的，我們正在增加 Tritan 的大量產能，這是增加公司總產量和強勁推動需求的一種方式。您說得對，Tritan 涉足耐用消費品領域——這是其主要終端市場之一，去年第四季和今年的需求壓力巨大。

something we may not have been clear about in how we manage our assets and our expansions that I'll address right now. So we have flexibility to swing our Tritan lines back to copolyester, right? They were originally -- if you want to go back in history, they are originally PET lines that we modified to make our specialty copolyesters and then we modify them again to make Tritan. But we've always retained flexibility in these assets to make different products.

我們可能還不清楚如何管理我們的資產和擴張，我現在就來談談這個問題。那麼，我們可以靈活地將 Tritan 生產線重新轉向共聚酯，對嗎？它們最初是——如果你想回顧歷史，它們最初是 PET 生產線，我們對其進行了修改以生產我們的特種共聚酯，然後我們再次對其進行修改以生產 Tritan。但我們始終保留這些資產的彈性，以生產不同的產品。

So our strategy was always when we brought on this very large chunk of capacity to swing one of the smaller Tritan lines back to making copolyester. So the net effective add of Tritan capacity will be about 25% when it comes online because of how we've swung that other line back to making copolyesters. And this works because the copolyester markets we have to serve there are much bigger markets and a wider set of markets to serve.

因此，我們的策略始終是，當我們引入這一非常大的產能時，將其中一條較小的 Tritan 生產線轉回生產共聚酯。因此，由於我們已將另一條生產線重新轉向生產共聚酯，Tritan 產能上線後其淨有效增量將達到 25% 左右。這種方法之所以有效，是因為我們要服務的共聚酯市場規模更大，需要服務的市場範圍也更廣。

And as I just explained, the recycled content value isn't constrained to Tritan. It very much applies to cosmetics. It applies to the shrink packaging, which was however a big market where people in that business going on bottles needs to have their sustainability recycle content targets hit there too as part of those bottles.

正如我剛才解釋的那樣，回收內容的價值並不局限於Tritan。它非常適合化妝品。它適用於收縮包裝，然而這是一個巨大的市場，從事瓶裝業務的人們也需要實現其永續回收內容目標，作為這些瓶子的一部分。

And so we'll run the methanolysis plant full in serving all of those end markets and our capacity will be balanced. And this is a huge advantage of our asset strategy, the flexibility to swing assets to make a wide range of products to adjust to whatever is going on in the market dynamics that we face.

因此，我們將全力運作甲醇分解工廠，為所有終端市場提供服務，我們的產能將保持平衡。這是我們的資產策略的一大優勢，即靈活地調動資產來生產各種各樣的產品，以適應我們所面臨的市場動態。

So no, it's not a problem. And then as we fill out that first 25%, we'll swing that asset back to Tritan to get to, in the end, a 50% capacity expansion. But you can do that over time and make sure you have volume and variable margin paying for the whole fixed cost and getting that leverage bottom line.

所以這不是問題。然後，當我們滿足第一個 25% 的要求時，我們會將該資產轉回 Tritan，最終實現 50% 的產能擴張。但你可以隨著時間的推移做到這一點，並確保你有足夠的交易量和可變保證金來支付全部固定成本並獲得槓桿底線。

The next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

Mark, if I remember correctly, last quarter, you said you were looking towards the lower end of the annual guidance. Is this still the case for this update?

馬克，如果我沒記錯的話，上個季度，你說過你正在關注年度指導的下限。這次更新還是這樣嗎？

No, we're feeling very good about our range and how we think about it. And if you think about the guidance we gave in January, it was a balance of volume recovery, price cost improvement with the trends that we see in raw materials, energy and distribution and the cost actions that we were taking, those obviously changed, but to hit the 2 positives first the price cost improvement is pretty substantial and the fibers improvement is obviously substantial relative to our January guidance.

不，我們對我們的範圍以及我們的想法感到非常滿意。如果你考慮我們在一月份給出的指導，它是產量恢復、價格成本改善與我們在原材料、能源和分銷方面看到的趨勢以及我們採取的成本行動之間的平衡，這些顯然發生了變化，但首先要實現兩個積極因素，價格成本改善相當可觀，纖維改善相對於我們一月份的指導顯然是相當大的。

And if you look at the strength of what we already have shown in the specialties or on the spread improvement, in the improvement in fibers and think about how that rolls through the rest of the year. That's about $1 -- it's at least $1 per share improvement in our outlook for fibers and spreads in the specialties. So that's a tailwind.

如果你看一下我們在專業領域或傳播改進方面已經展現出的實力，以及在纖維改進方面的實力，並思考一下這將如何延續到今年剩餘時間。這大約是 1 美元——對於特種纖維和價差的前景而言，這意味著每股至少上漲 1 美元。所以這是順風。

So then you get to -- we didn't change our range with investors. And that's due to the conversation we've just had around the weakness in the market on the demand front being pretty substantial. And when you think about how we've sort of adjusted our guidance when you look at the next 3 quarters, you're about $2.08 I guess, in the mean. So our midpoint of our guidance range for Q2 is $2.00. So it's a pretty modest adjustment for some of that demand not being better in the second quarter sequentially being partially offset by better spread netting out to that sort of 2Q number.

那你就會明白──我們沒有改變投資人的範圍。這是因為我們剛剛討論過，市場需求的疲軟相當嚴重。當您考慮我們如何調整對未來 3 個季度的預期時，我猜平均值約為 2.08 美元。因此，我們對第二季的指導範圍的中點是 2.00 美元。因此，這是一個相當溫和的調整，因為部分需求在第二季沒有好轉，但利差的改善部分抵消了第二季的數據。

And then we've really pulled the vast majority of that dollar per share improvement in our outlook into the second half of the year, and that really is predominantly volume and mix and the associated asset utilization headwind that comes with it. And you've got that -- as we're sort of seeing this weaker demand, we're taking actions to reduce our operating rates, full inventory down, make sure we hit our $1.4 billion of cost -- I'm sorry cash flow generation. And that led to that $50 million of asset utilization headwind we identified and about half of that occurs in Q2 and the rest in the back half of the year. So that's all sort of fed into this mix.

然後，我們確實將每股盈餘的絕大部分改善都納入了下半年的展望中，而這實際上主要是數量和組合以及隨之而來的資產利用率逆風。而且我們看到了這一點——由於需求減弱，我們正在採取措施降低營運率，減少庫存，確保達到 14 億美元的成本——對不起，是現金流的產生。這導致了我們發現的 5000 萬美元的資產利用逆風，其中大約一半發生在第二季度，其餘發生在下半年。所以這一切都融入了這個組合。

But what it really does is derisk the guidance. You don't have as much of a step-up into the second half of the year that we had in January. So I think it's a much more balanced forecast. I think we feel very good about the range and our ability. We're certainly not at the low end of it anymore, and we'll focus on what we can control. I mean it's a pretty uncertain environment. I think the volume forecast now is pretty conservative or balanced based on how you want to look at the world. But certainly not optimistic.

但它真正做到的是降低指導風險。與一月相比，今年下半年的成長動能並不明顯。所以我認為這是一個更平衡的預測。我認為我們對我們的範圍和能力感到非常滿意。我們當然不再處於低端，我們將專注於我們能夠控制的事情。我的意思是這是一個相當不確定的環境。我認為，根據你如何看待世界，現在的銷售預測是相當保守或平衡的。但絕對不容樂觀。

And we're going to focus on controlling our costs, focus on our price discipline, focus on innovation to create value and growth above the underlying markets and make sure we deliver our cash flow.

我們將專注於控製成本、嚴格價格紀律、創新，以創造超越基礎市場的價值和成長，並確保實現現金流。

And on one of the slides, you're talking about interlayers being better positioned or gaining content in electric vehicles versus ICE. I thought both EVs and ICE use interlayers and especially the premium ICE cars. Could you talk about this? Why is there a content gain?

在其中一張幻燈片上，您談到了與內燃機汽車相比，夾層在電動車中具有更好的定位或應用範圍。我認為電動車和內燃機汽車都使用中間層，尤其是高級內燃機汽車。你能談談這個嗎？為什麼會有內容增益？

So in the EVs versus ICE cars, they both have safety windows for sure. But we've walked through this a couple of times on ceiling of EVs. And there's a lot of detail on Innovation Day on this. There's about 3.5x more content in the EV car than an ICE car when it comes to interlayers. Part of it is you're sitting on batteries, your heads pushed up higher into the ceiling. They can't raise the outside ceiling for aerodynamic efficiency, so they make the sunroof a lot bigger. So you're now riding around in a bubble.

因此，無論是電動車還是內燃機汽車，它們肯定都有安全窗。但我們已經多次討論過電動車的上限問題。創新日對此有許多詳細的介紹。就中間層而言，電動車的中間層含量比內燃機汽車多約 3.5 倍。部分原因是你坐在電池上，頭被抬得更高，靠近天花板。他們無法提高外部天花板以提高空氣動力學效率，因此他們把天窗做得更大了。所以你現在就像在泡沫中行走一樣。

And so there's a lot more glass going to laminate it. There is the sunroof, the side windows, the back windows because it's also a way to take steel out of the car by getting more structural strength from the glass with the laminate. They want more functionality in it. So they want the heads-up display. They want more solar rejection to reduce the load on HVAC. So we're putting a lot of solar rejection properties so that inside the car doesn't get heated up. They need more specific styled colors, et cetera. So all this is leading to a lot more value per square meter in addition to a lot more square meters when you go to an EV. And we've already seen tremendous success with a 70% increase in our sales last year over '21 from EVs and it's now up to sort of 10% of our exposure in that business. So -- it's just -- it's a great story. And fortunately, we're not losing anything in the transition with -- being in other parts of the car.

因此需要用更多的玻璃來壓層它。還有天窗、側窗、後窗，因為這也是利用層壓玻璃來增加結構強度，進而減少汽車鋼材用量的方法。他們希望它具有更多功能。所以他們想要平視顯示器。他們希望能更多地抑制太陽能，以減少暖通空調系統的負荷。因此，我們添加了許多太陽能阻隔裝置，以使車內不會變熱。他們需要更具體的風格顏色等等。因此，當你使用電動車時，所有這些都會導致每平方公尺的價值大幅增加，而且平方公尺數也會大幅增加。我們已經看到了巨大的成功，去年我們的電動車銷量比 21 年增長了 70%，現在電動車在我們該業務中的佔比已經達到 10%。所以——這只是——一個很棒的故事。幸運的是，我們在過渡過程中沒有損失汽車其他部分的任何東西。

We now have Michael Leithead of Barclays.

現在我們請到的是巴克萊銀行的麥可萊特黑德。

Great. First -- just 2 around inventory and working capital. First, you talked about $50 million of incremental headwinds from lower asset utilization to manage your inventory. Can you just speak to what business or businesses are seeing the most pain there? And then second, Willie, just what's the working capital assumption and your cash flow guide this year?

偉大的。首先－僅涉及庫存和營運資金兩個面向。首先，您談到了由於資產利用率降低而為庫存管理帶來 5000 萬美元的增量阻力。您能否談談哪些企業或哪些企業在那裡遭遇了最大的痛苦？其次，威利，今年的營運資本假設和現金流指南是什麼？

Yes. So what I would highlight from a business standpoint, as Mark has highlighted, the end markets of durables, building and construction are the ones that are most under pressure. So you can think about that being in our specialty businesses as we level out and have the fixed cost impact the remaining parts of the year. Ultimately, what we've said at the beginning of the year to achieve the $1.4 billion of cash hopefully, we were expecting, I'll call it, year-over-year working capital to be flat.

是的。因此，從商業角度來看，我想強調的是，正如馬克所強調的那樣，耐用品、建築和施工等終端市場面臨的壓力最大。因此，您可以想像一下，在我們的專業業務中，隨著我們的穩定發展，固定成本將對今年剩餘的時間產生影響。最終，我們在年初曾表示希望實現 14 億美元的現金，我們預計，我稱之為同比營運資本持平。

You can see we're off at the beginning of the year, and that being a net I'll call it the net usage of cash and we're focused on driving that cash as we hold our earnings guide flat for the full year that we delivered that through to the bottom line. So we're not waiting to the back half to see how it unfold. We're taking action now so that it is across the last 3 quarters.

您可以看到，我們在年初就開始了，這是一個淨額，我稱之為現金淨使用量，我們專注於推動現金，因為我們將全年盈利指南保持平穩，直到實現盈利。所以我們不會等到後半部再看事情如何發展。我們現在正在採取行動，以便覆蓋最後三個季度。

Great. And then just quickly, Mark, on methanolysis. You mentioned seeing revenue before year-end. But just -- when do you think that facility will be ramped up to a point where we'll sort of see a normalized kind of EBITDA run rate from the plant?

偉大的。然後，馬克，我們快速討論一下甲醇分解。您提到在年底前就能看到收入。但是—您認為什麼時候該工廠的產能能夠達到某個水平，讓我們能夠看到工廠的正常 EBITDA 運作率？

So the ramp-up of the facility will be quite fast getting to sort of full capacity and recycled content will be the priority valued by our customers. So we expect the facility and the recycled content to start going into a wide range of products pretty quickly through 2024.

因此，該工廠的產能提升將非常快，達到滿載狀態，而回收材料將成為我們客戶優先考慮的事情。因此，我們預計到 2024 年，該設施和回收材料很快就會開始應用於各種產品。

Now filling out the capacity of the -- Tritan capacity, obviously, as I discussed a moment ago, to Jeff's question, will take some time, but we have a way to flex our assets to sort of sell recycled content into wide range of markets, including PET if we want to sort of run it full.

現在，正如我剛才討論過的，顯然，要滿足 Tritan 的產能需要一些時間，但我們有辦法靈活運用我們的資產，將再生材料銷售到廣泛的市場，包括 PET，如果我們想讓它充分運轉的話。

So there's plenty of market demand -- unlimited market demand in PET relative to this capacity. So we feel good about deploying with the capacity pretty quickly. It will be across a spectrum of markets and then over time, we'll value up that mix, like we always do to the higher and higher value specialties as we continue to penetrate and grow in those markets like Tritan over time. So we'll get to a pretty good fill out rate on the actual investment in the recycled content within 12 to 18 months.

因此，市場需求充足——相對於這一產能，PET 的市場需求是無限的。因此，我們對能夠快速部署容量感到非常滿意。它將涵蓋一系列市場，然後隨著時間的推移，我們將提升這種組合的價值，就像我們一直對越來越高價值的專業產品所做的那樣，隨著我們隨著時間的推移不斷滲透和發展，像 Tritan 這樣的市場。因此，我們將在 12 到 18 個月內對回收材料的實際投資獲得相當不錯的填補率。

Your next question comes from Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

Just wanted to ask quickly on the 2Q guidance. The 2Q guidance range, I mean, the segment commentary is fairly tight at -- like ex -- AM, but I'm just kind of wondering as we look at it, what maybe takes you to low end versus the high end of the range.

只是想快速詢問一下第二季的指導。我的意思是，第二季度的指導範圍在部分評論中相當嚴格 - 例如 - AM，但我只是有點好奇，當我們看它時，什麼可能讓你處於範圍的低端與高端。

So when you think about the sequential trends, we obviously did a lot better than expected in the first quarter, which was principally driven by price/cost favorability especially from natural gas that we can see continuing sequentially into the second quarter. So that part, I think, is pretty clear. The cost actions we're taking on the $200 million cost reduction program and how some of that certainly showed up and help to the first quarter, but more of that will show up in help in the second quarter, that's pretty easy to see and predict how those elements are going to play out.

因此，當您考慮連續趨勢時，我們在第一季的表現顯然比預期要好得多，這主要是受到價格/成本優惠的推動，尤其是天然氣，我們可以看到這種優惠將持續到第二季​​。所以我認為這部分非常清楚。我們針對 2 億美元成本削減計劃採取的成本行動，以及其中一些措施肯定會對第一季產生幫助，但更多的措施將在第二季度產生幫助，這很容易看出並預測這些因素將如何發揮作用。

So the wildcard is purely back to the full year, which is how is volume and mix going to play out? And how does that also impact asset utilization? And that's really where things sit.

因此，通配符純粹回到了全年，即數量和組合將如何發揮作用？這對資產利用率有何影響？事情的實際情況就是這樣。

When it comes to the stable markets, I think we've got a pretty good understanding of that sort of half of our revenue that -- and where the trends in those markets are headed. There's still a little bit of destocking in personal care and water treatment and AFP that's uncertain.

談到穩定的市場，我認為我們對這一半的收入以及這些市場的趨勢走向有相當好的了解。個人護理和水處理領域仍有少量去庫存，法新社對此還不確定。

And then the big question is an AM associated with what's going on in these more discretionary markets in consumer durables and when that destocking ends and at what rate. I mean we do see if order books being sort of weak and similar to March. So normally, you'd see a real step up in March that didn't play out sort of we're steady through the month when it comes to sort of the specialty plastics world. And -- but we do see order books being a lot stronger in May now. So we're finally starting to see some actual turn here in that marketplace, which is encouraging. And that turn is built into our guidance.

那麼最大的問題是 AM 與耐用消費品中這些更具自由裁量權的市場正在發生的事情有關，以及去庫存化何時結束以及以何種速度結束。我的意思是，我們確實看到訂單量有點疲軟並且與三月類似。因此，通常情況下，你會看到 3 月出現真正的成長，但就特種塑膠領域而言，我們整個月的銷售並沒有保持穩定。而且 — — 但我們確實看到五月的訂單量強勁得多。因此，我們終於開始看到該市場出現了一些實際轉變，這是令人鼓舞的。這種轉變已融入我們的指導中。

And then on building construction, I think that's the other wildcard. I think Europe and China were presuming to be relatively stable at the levels not getting worse but not really getting much better. And we do see things getting a little bit more challenging in building construction in the U.S. as that market is starting to now finally face the lower housing starts and existing home sales, et cetera.

然後，關於建築施工，我認為這是另一個未知因素。我認為歐洲和中國的情況將保持相對穩定，不會變得更糟，但不會變得更好。我們確實看到美國建築業面臨的挑戰變得更大，因為該市場現在終於開始面臨新屋開工率和現房銷售率下降等問題。

So I think we feel pretty good about this range with the wildcard is going to be -- we're in a pretty volatile time when it comes to demand and how much destocking really has played out yet or not, et cetera. And that's why we've sort of pulled our sort of view this quarter down a bit. But we feel good about this range, and we're going to pull every lever where we got to head.

因此，我認為我們對這個範圍感覺很好，但不確定因素是——我們正處於一個非常動蕩的時期，涉及到需求以及去庫存化程度是否已經發揮作用等等。這就是為什麼我們本季的觀點有所下調。但我們對於這個範圍感到滿意，並且我們將盡一切努力。

And if I can, on the Ai-Red Tech acquisition, like I'm assuming this is pretty small, but I know you like the paint protection film business a lot. And I know Asia is growing quickly. So I mean, how fragmented is that market. What's kind of the margin differential for there if we look versus the U.S.? And how big of an opportunity could the paint protection and expansion data be for Eastman as you look over the next few years?

如果可以的話，關於 Ai-Red Tech 的收購，我假設這是一筆很小的收購，但我知道您非常喜歡漆面保護膜業務。我知道亞洲正在快速發展。我的意思是，這個市場有多分散。如果與美國相比，那裡的利潤差異是什麼樣的？展望未來幾年，油漆保護和擴展數據對伊士曼來說有多大的機會？

Yes. So we're very excited about the bolt-on that we added in our performance films business in Advanced Materials. To your point, we're always looking for bolt-ons in AM as well as Additives & Functional Products. Our two key end markets within this space are in Asia, specifically China and the U.S., Americas.

是的。因此，我們對先進材料高性能薄膜業務中新增的附加功能感到非常興奮。正如您所說，我們一直在尋找 AM 以及添加劑和功能產品中的附加產品。我們在這個領域的兩個主要終端市場在亞洲（具體為中國）和美國（美洲）。

Now we have a global asset footprint to better serve and to achieve the higher growth rate. Ultimately, this is a premium set of products. And we're really excited about how this is going to help AM grow in the long term and specifically the films business.

現在我們擁有全球資產足跡，以便更好地服務並實現更高的成長率。最終，這是一套優質產品。我們真的很高興這將幫助 AM 實現長期發展，特別是電影業務的發展。

We now have Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners.

現在我們請到的是 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Mark, you moved your functional amines business for reporting purposes over to A&FP from the Chemical Intermediates segment. Can you talk about why you did that? And with regard to the first quarter, what were the sales and earnings associated with that business? I saw the sort of the retrospective disclosures for 2022. It looks like it was $310 million in annual sales with EBIT margin slightly north of 20%. Are those sorts of run rates reasonable to apply to the first quarter that you just reported as well?

馬克，出於報告目的，您將功能胺業務從化學中間體部門轉移到了 A&FP。你能談談你為什麼這麼做嗎？那麼第一季該業務的銷售額和收益是多少？我看到了 2022 年的回顧性披露。看起來它的年銷售額為 3.1 億美元，息稅前利潤率略高於 20%。這些運行率是否也合理適用於您剛剛報告的第一季？

Thanks, Kevin. Great question. Functional amines business is just an absolutely fantastic business. And it's one that we saw a lot of opportunities to sort of operate and manage better by integrating it with the personal care business that's the other half of Taminco that sits in AFP and sort of bring the band back together again. And so from operational asset efficiency, business management point of view, made sense to bring them together.

謝謝，凱文。好問題。功能胺業務絕對是一項了不起的業務。我們看到了許多機會，可以透過將其與個人護理業務（Taminco 的另一半，位於 AFP）整合來更好地運作和管理，並將整個團隊重新整合。因此，從營運資產效率和業務管理的角度來看，將它們整合在一起是有意義的。

And it also allowed us to help investors better understand the quality of this business. I mean it's got 70% of its revenue in really stable, attractive markets from ag to pharma to water treatment, very solid study businesses. The nature of it's business doesn't really face competition from Asia. It's very difficult to ship these intermediates around the world for safety reasons.

這也使我們能夠幫助投資者更好地了解這項業務的品質。我的意思是，它 70% 的收入來自真正穩定、有吸引力的市場，從農業到製藥到水處理，都是非常穩固的研究業務。其業務性質其實並不面臨來自亞洲的競爭。出於安全原因，將這些中間體運送到世界各地非常困難。

So we don't compete against Asia in these markets. And we're by far the strongest leader in these products with a great competitive position in North America and Europe. So very solid margin position, very attractive margins, as you mentioned. And we do most of this business in both here as well as personal care and cost pass-through contracts. So the margins are very stable through the sort of ups and downs with inflation.

因此，我們不會在這些市場上與亞洲競爭。我們是這些產品領域迄今為止最強大的領導者，在北美和歐洲擁有強大的競爭地位。正如您所說，利潤率非常穩固，利潤率非常有吸引力。我們的大部分業務都是透過這裡以及個人護理和成本轉嫁合約進行的。因此，無論通貨膨脹如何波動，利潤率都非常穩定。

So it's also good on that and had some great growth opportunities as well. We make a critical ingredient for Corteva Enlist product called C-Base. We're -- they're a great company, and we hope to be -- continue to great partner with them and see a lot of growth in front of us, on top of the normal ag market. Once again, innovation partnerships leading to above market growth. So great business to have integrated. And they have -- because we're at scale, our vertical integration model here creates a lot of value.

因此，這也很好，也有一些很好的成長機會。我們生產 Corteva Enlist 產品的一種關鍵成分，稱為 C-Base。他們是一家很棒的公司，我們希望能夠繼續與他們保持良好的合作關係，並在正常的農業市場之外看到巨大的成長。再次，創新夥伴關係帶來高於市場的成長。整合後的業務真是太棒了。而且他們確實做到了——因為我們規模龐大，所以我們的垂直整​​合模式創造了很多價值。

And Mark, if I can add. As we look at our Q1 results and the -- I'll call it the strong performance related to our January guide. The way I look at that is we beat our expectations of about $75 million. So if you look at that, that's roughly 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd across AFP Fibers and our Chemical Intermediates business as you look at the guide prior to the resegmentation.

還有馬克，如果我可以補充的話。當我們回顧第一季的業績時——我稱之為與一月份指南相關的強勁表現。我認為我們超出了約 7500 萬美元的預期。因此，如果您看一下，您會發現，根據重新細分先前的指南，這大約是 AFP Fibers 和我們的化學中間體業務的 1/3、1/3、1/3。

Okay. And secondly, if I may, Mark, I wanted to revisit the fibers discussion in response to David's question earlier. You talked a lot about what's changed in that business. But at a very high level, if I look at history, your segment margins were in the low 30% range and very stable from 2013 to 2016. And then in the next 4 years, we descended through the '20s and then that dovetailed into this inflationary year where -- call it, mid-teens last couple of years.

好的。其次，馬克，如果可以的話，我想重新討論纖維討論，以回答大衛之前提出的問題。您談了很多有關該行業發生的變化。但從非常高的水平來看，如果我回顧歷史，你們的分部利潤率在 30% 左右，從 2013 年到 2016 年非常穩定。然後在接下來的 4 年裡，我們下降到了 20 多歲，然後與通貨膨脹的年份相吻合——可以說，過去幾年的通貨膨脹率處於十幾歲左右。

In the first quarter, your price went up 40% year-over-year and now we're back to the low 30% range, 31% in the first quarter. So should we understand from your comments that, that margin level will be sustainable for the foreseeable future? And if so, can you talk about what's changed with regard to your contracts in terms of pricing and procurement, if that makes sense?

在第一季度，你們的價格年增了 40%，現在我們又回到了 30% 的低點，第一季上漲了 31%。那麼，從您的評論中我們是否應該理解，在可預見的未來，利潤率水平將是可持續的？如果是的話，您能否談談您的合約在定價和採購方面有哪些變化？

Sure. So it's a great question. It's been a long journey for this business. It's always -- if you go back to the history you're talking about was a great source of earnings, margin and importantly, cash flow because it doesn't require much CapEx historically. And so it was just a great part of our portfolio, and it went through a very difficult time when sort of demand came off significantly.

當然。這是一個很好的問題。對這個企業來說這是一個漫長的歷程。它總是——如果你回顧歷史，你會發現它一直是收益、利潤和重要的現金流的重要來源，因為從歷史上看它不需要太多的資本支出。因此，它是我們投資組合的重要組成部分，當需求大幅下降時，它經歷了非常困難的時期。

And as I said, and I'm not going to repeat it. The trends in demand and supply have changed a lot over the decade to get us back to high utilization rates. And the key here is the customers in a loose market, we're very focused like every department does on how to get the best price. But in the end, security supply is a lot more important than incremental price improvements. And we're now in an industry situation because of the last decade, there hasn't been very much investment in this industry and the need to continue to be a reliable supplier to our customers requires us to make some investments. So we've seen inflation and costs go up a lot. We obviously raise prices to cover that.

正如我所說的，我不會重複。十年來，需求和供應趨勢發生了很大變化，使我們恢復了高利用率。這裡的關鍵是寬鬆市場中的客戶，我們像每個部門一樣非常注重如何獲得最優惠的價格。但最終，安全供應比逐步改善價格更為重要。我們現在處於這樣的行業境地，因為在過去十年中，這個行業的投資並不多，為了繼續成為客戶的可靠供應商，我們需要進行一些投資。因此，我們看到通貨膨脹和成本大幅上漲。我們顯然會提高價格來彌補這一點。

But we also need appropriate margins in this business to make the reinvestments in asset reliability, and for us, expansion of capacity on our existing assets. So to be clear, not a new plant, but debottlenecking because we have so much growth in textiles and we have so much growth in this Aventa product line that is going to go into food service that we're expecting in '24 and '25.

但我們還需要在該業務中獲得適當的利潤，以便對資產可靠性進行再投資，並擴大現有資產的產能。所以要明確的是，這不是一個新工廠，而是一個瓶頸，因為我們在紡織品方面有很大的增長，我們的 Aventa 產品線也有很大的增長，我們預計該產品線將在 24 年和 25 年進入食品服務領域。

The whole cellulose ester stream as we talked about at Innovation Day is making a pivot to being a growth stream as opposed to an optimization stream, which we're incredibly excited about because not only do we have a lot of huge upside of that $450 million coming out of the polyester recycling with this cellulose set of products that we have -- we've now got $200 million of growth opportunity in the future on top of this improved Fibers business and the margins as you look over the next 5 years. So this is really exciting new dimension for us to get to this higher altitude on the base and then build on it with growth.

正如我們在創新日上所討論的，整個纖維素酯流正在從優化流轉向增長流，我們對此感到非常興奮，因為憑藉我們擁有的這套纖維素產品，我們不僅有從聚酯回收中獲得的 4.5 億美元的巨大上升空間，而且除了改進的纖維業務和未來 5 年的利潤率之外，我們還獲得了未來 2 億美元的增長機會。因此，這對我們來說是一個真正令人興奮的新維度，讓我們在基礎上達到更高的高度，然後在此基礎上不斷發展。

But we do believe the margins are at appropriate levels for the importance of this product to our customers and funding our investment to be a highly reliable supplier. I'd also note, as I said, contracting typically, there's a lot of our contracts that are multiyear contracts. We have added provisions in there to make some adjustments for how raw materials go up and down to provide more margin stability for this business. And so we've got -- we're fully contracted this year and we're making great progress in getting the contracts in place for the next couple of years. And so we'll share more with you about how we've progressed on that through the summer.

但我們確實相信，考慮到該產品對我們的客戶的重要性以及我們投資成為高度可靠的供應商所需的資金，利潤率處於適當的水平。我還要指出，正如我所說，合約通常是這樣的，我們的許多合約都是多年期合約。我們在其中增加了一些準備金，對原材料的漲跌做出一些調整，從而為該業務提供更穩定的利潤率。因此，我們今年的合約已經全部簽完，並且在簽訂未來幾年的合約方面取得了很大進展。因此，我們將與大家分享更多有關我們整個夏天在這方面取得的進展的資訊。

So we do think the margins are the right attitude there's always some uncertainty of energy costs, for example, that will move the number up and down a bit.

因此，我們確實認為利潤率是正確的態度，例如，能源成本總是存在一些不確定性，這會使數字略有上下波動。

We now have Michael Sison of Wells Fargo.

現在我們請到的是富國銀行的麥可‧西森。

Nice start to the year. Market in Advanced Materials, your margins did improve reasonably well in the first quarter versus the fourth and you're sitting here in the low teens. Where do you think we can get those margins back to -- it used to be a high teens, maybe 20% business? And is it just simply volumes coming back to get there?

今年的開始很好。在先進材料市場，與第四季相比，第一季的利潤率確實有相當好的提高，目前處於百分之十幾左右。您認為我們可以將利潤率恢復到什麼水平——以前是百分之十幾，甚至可能是 20% 左右？這僅僅是數量回歸到原來的水平嗎？

So Mike, before I let Mark respond, I would just highlight, we've had a significant amount of inflation over the last couple of years. We're talking about, I think almost $2.5 billion, between that and FX, that's about 300 basis points at the corporate level and about 2/3 of that has been in our Specialties and Advanced Materials. So as we look back over a couple of years, we're going to be approaching pre-COVID levels adjusted for inflation.

因此，麥克，在讓馬克回應之前，我只想強調一下，過去幾年我們經歷了嚴重的通貨膨脹。我們談論的是，我認為差不多有 25 億美元，加上外匯，這在公司層級大約是 300 個基點，其中約 2/3 用於我們的特殊材料和先進材料。因此，當我們回顧過去的幾年時，我們將接近根據通膨進行調整後的疫情之前的水平。

And just putting that aside, I think there's a lift in margins that are pretty substantial in front of us from 2 components, Mike. First is obviously, there's prices we have increased last year where we did keep up with inflation through last year, which was pretty extraordinary inflation when you think of PVOH being up 45%, energy up 70%, PX up 40%. So a lot of inflation in this segment, 2/3 of the $2.4 billion of inflation over the last 2 years goes into Specialty and a lot of it into AM.

撇開這一點不談，我認為從兩個方面來看，我們的利潤率將會有相當大的提升，麥克。首先，顯然，我們去年提高了價格，並且確實跟上了通貨膨脹的步伐，考慮到 PVOH 上漲了 45%，能源上漲了 70%，PX 上漲了 40%，那一年的通貨膨脹率相當高。因此，該領域的通貨膨脹率很高，過去兩年 24 億美元的通貨膨脹中有 2/3 進入了專業領域，其中很大一部分進入了 AM。

And we've done a great job. But there was certainly an amount of compression we didn't keep up with in 2021. And so as we hold our prices up and start realizing some cost benefits from that in this segment, we'll see margins improve as a result of that. So that's a big driver of where you'll see progressive improvements in margins through this year.

我們做得非常出色。但在 2021 年，我們確實沒有跟上一定程度的壓縮。因此，隨著我們維持價格並開始從該領域獲得一些成本效益，我們將看到利潤率隨之提高。因此，這是今年利潤率逐步提高的一個重要驅動因素。

But the other factor here in the short term is demand, right? So when demand is off as much as it is, and we're running our assets slower to control inventory and generating cash flow, and that's just going to have an asset utilization hit to the EBIT margins and a good portion of that $50 million that we called out, lands in the Advanced Materials segment.

但短期內的另一個因素是需求，對嗎？因此，當需求下降到這種程度時，我們會放慢資產運轉速度來控制庫存和產生現金流，這會導致資產利用率對息稅前利潤率產生影響，而我們所說的 5000 萬美元中的很大一部分會落入先進材料部門。

So the margins will get better this year. But when you go to '24 with the assumption that demand starts to improve and people bring restocking back to sort of normal levels of inventory, you'll see another big step-up in margins next year as we progress. And then you've got the circular economy kicking in through next year. And then we're getting the premiums in existing applications and just new sales at much higher prices. So that will continue to drive margins up. And so I think we get back to our old margins and continue lifting the margins from there.

因此今年的利潤率將會更好。但是，當你假設需求開始改善並且人們將補貨恢復到正常庫存水準時，你會看到明年利潤率將再次大幅上升。然後循環經濟就會在明年開始發揮作用。然後，我們在現有應用程式和新銷售中以更高的價格獲得溢價。因此這將繼續推高利潤率。因此我認為我們會回到原來的利潤率，並從那裡繼續提高利潤率。

We now have Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets.

現在我們有請來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Arun Viswanathan。

So it looks like just given your guidance for '23, we can kind of assume maybe at the midpoint that the second half, you'll be exiting the year at around a $4 EPS run rate. And if you look at next year then, not to just annualize that number, but if you were, that would get you to $8, is that a base case from which we can build off of? And maybe if you get some more normal volume growth if you get back into the mid 8s into the 8% to 10% EPS growth range or 8% to 12%. Is that how you're thinking about the main drivers that will get you back into that range? It's mainly volume? Or what else should we be expecting, I guess.

因此，看起來，根據您對 23 年的指導，我們可以假設，也許在中期，您的下半年每股盈餘運行率將達到 4 美元左右。那麼，如果您展望明年，不要只是將該數字按年化，而是將其達到 8 美元，這是我們可以藉鑑的基準情況嗎？如果您回到 8 月份中段，而 EPS 成長範圍達到 8% 至 10% 或 8% 至 12%，那麼也許您會獲得更正常的銷售成長。您是否認為哪些主要驅動因素會讓您回到這個範圍？主要是音量嗎？或者我想我們還該期待什麼呢？

Yes. So I would highlight here, we're delivering $3.60 with our guide here in the first half as we think about achieving the midpoint that number is going to be closer to $4.25 in the back half as we're focused on achieving the midpoint. As you take that number, it's roughly $8.50 for the full year. And as we think about getting back to I call it a more normal demand environment versus an extreme demand environment, we are focused on getting back to that 8% to 12% EPS earnings growth.

是的。因此，我想在這裡強調一下，我們在上半年的指導價格為 3.60 美元，因為我們考慮實現中點，所以下半年這個數字將更接近 4.25 美元，因為我們專注於實現中點。從這個數字來看，全年大約是 8.50 美元。當我們考慮回到我所說的更正常的需求環境而不是極端需求環境時，我們專注於回到 8% 至 12% 的每股盈餘成長。

No, I think that's right. I mean, when you think about the portfolio, you've got fibers at much higher altitude and it's going to hold there. You've got CI at bottom cycle kind of spreads in margins in this current competitive environment. So stable to maybe up next year. So you've got that carrying in as a solid base to next year. And then the question then focuses on to what degree are we going to have specialties grow versus this year. Well, last year and this year has got an extraordinary amount of destocking and very low demand because in the world we live in materials, we're very much in a serious recession. I mean the service sector with consumers may not be there yet, but our industry is certainly at recessionary levels.

不，我認為是這樣。我的意思是，當你考慮投資組合時，你會在更高的海拔擁有纖維，而且它會在那裡停留。在目前競爭環境下，CI 處於底部週期的利潤率範圍。因此明年可能會穩定上漲。因此，您已經為明年打下了堅實的基礎。那麼問題就集中在與今年相比我們的專業化程度將會如何成長。嗯，去年和今年出現了大量的去庫存現象，需求也非常低，因為我們生活在物質世界，我們正處於嚴重的衰退之中。我的意思是，面向消費者的服務業可能還沒有達到那種程度，但我們的產業肯定處於衰退水準。

So you've got a lot of recovery or just stabilization in some of these markets as upside on volume mix, you've got auto that has a lot of recovery in front of it. So if any version of that where the world is better in '24 versus this year, you're definitely adding on to this back half performance. You got to adjust for seasonality, but it's a very strong improvement in EPS next year versus this year in that macroeconomic scenario.

因此，隨著交易量組合的上升，部分市場將大幅復甦或趨於穩定，汽車產業將迎來大幅復甦。因此，如果任何版本都認為 24 年的世界比今年更好，那麼您肯定會為後半段的表現做出貢獻。你必須根據季節性進行調整，但在宏觀經濟情景下，明年的每股盈餘將比今年有非常強勁的改善。

And then similarly, on the free cash flow side then, does that push you closer to $2 billion, maybe by '25. And if so, would you be allocating more capital to growth investment at that point? Or is it possible that we could reprioritize share repurchases?

那麼，同樣地，在自由現金流方面，這是否會使您更接近 20 億美元，也許到 25 年。如果是這樣，那麼您會在那時分配更多資金用於成長投資嗎？或者我們有可能重新安排股票回購的優先順序？

So just to highlight. First, we're focused on delivering a $1.4 billion of this year. And yes, as we think about a more normalized demand environment and building on the back half of this year, getting back to the $1.6 billion of operating cash flow and above that we committed to at Innovation Day is definitely within our side.

只是為了強調一下。首先，我們今年的重點是實現 14 億美元的目標。是的，當我們考慮更正常化的需求環境並在今年下半年的基礎上繼續努力時，回到我們在創新日承諾的 16 億美元及以上的營運現金流絕對是我們力所能及的。

And I think, again, we've been focused on discipline with our capital allocation. So one, first, the growing dividend; two, driving our organic growth and the innovation-driven growth model and this new vector of growth with our circular investments; and then bolt-ons, and we will always put cash to use and not let it sit on the balance sheet. So if there's left over, yes, we'll do more than offset inflation with share repurchase or dilution with share repurchases.

我認為，我們一直非常注重資本配置的紀律。首先，股息不斷成長；二、透過循環投資推動我們的有機成長、創新驅動的成長模式和新的成長方向；然後再附加一些，我們會一直使用現金，而不是讓它停留在資產負債表上。因此，如果還有剩餘，是的，我們將採取更多措施，而不僅僅是透過股票回購來抵消通貨膨脹或透過股票回購來稀釋。

Let's make the next question the last one, please.

請將下一個問題作為最後一個問題。

Absolutely. Our final question on the line comes from John Roberts with Credit Suisse.

絕對地。我們最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰·羅伯茨。

The Saflex film is also used in laminated window glass for commercial construction. Those are long lead time projects. Can you see the bottom yet in the U.S. commercial construction backlog? And can some of that production be pivoted to auto?

Saflex 薄膜也用於商業建築的夾層窗玻璃。這些都是長期專案。您認為美國商業建築積壓情況已經觸底了嗎？其中一些生產可以轉向汽車生產嗎？

So John, the interlayer assets that make the auto and the architectural windows are flexible. So they very much can swing between auto and building construction. I would note that the vast majority of our business in laminated architectural glass is actually in Europe, not here.

所以約翰，製造汽車和建築窗戶的夾層資產是靈活的。因此他們完全可以在汽車和建築施工之間搖擺不定。我想指出的是，我們的夾層建築玻璃業務的絕大部分實際上在歐洲，而不是這裡。

So slowdown in this Europe construction market that's occurred for quite some time, sort of is embedded in our forecast. So we're at lower levels in that part of the industry. They really just isn't that much laminate glass because it's really isolated to commercial here and where the regulations drive a lot more laminate glass to both commercial and residential in Europe.

因此，歐洲建築市場放緩的現像已經持續了一段時間，這在某種程度上已經體現在我們的預測中。因此，我們在該行業的水平較低。他們實際上並沒有那麼多夾層玻璃，因為這裡的商業用途確實比較孤立，而歐洲的法規要求更多的夾層玻璃用於商業和住宅。

So that's embedded in there. That excess capacity very much will just be redeployed to auto recovery as we see it. And then eventually, you're right, it's long lead. The housing market will improve over time. It's honestly held up reasonably well. It's not off that much.

所以它就嵌入在那裡了。正如我們所見，過剩產能將被重新部署到汽車復甦中。最終，你是對的，這是一個漫長的過程。隨著時間的推移，房地產市場將會改善。說實話，它表現得相當不錯。差別並沒有那麼大。

Okay. And then what's the delay in announcing the location for the second U.S. methanolysis plant? Are you pushing that out because of the delay in the Kingsport side?

好的。那麼，為什麼美國第二家甲醇分解工廠的選址要延後宣布呢？您是否因為金斯波特方面的延誤而推遲了這項計劃？

John, there's no delay. We had always anticipated that we would do it in the first half of the year, and the expectation is that we'll make the announcement in the second quarter here.

約翰，沒有耽擱。我們一直預計將在今年上半年完成這一目標，並預計在第二季宣布這一消息。

That's our last question. Thanks again, everyone, for joining us. We appreciate your time, and I hope you have a great day.

這是我們的最後一個問題。再次感謝大家加入我們。感謝您抽出時間，祝您有個愉快的一天。

That concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。