伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2022 Eastman Chemical Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化工2022年第二季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議將在伊士曼網站www.eastman.com上進行現場直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle, of Eastman Chemical Company, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將把電話轉交給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部門的Greg Riddle先生。先生，請講。

Thank you, Tracy, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝特蕾西，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、高級副總裁兼首席財務官威利·麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain) 以及投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Yesterday after market closed, we posted our second quarter 2022 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investors Section of our website, www.eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，我們在網站 www.eastman.com 的投資者部分發布了 2022 年第二季度財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件、幻燈片和相關的準備好的評論。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our second quarter 2022 financial results news release, during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for full year 2021 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for second quarter 2022.

在開始之前，我將介紹兩點。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到一些關於我們計劃和預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已或將在我們2022年第二季度財務業績新聞稿、本次電話會議、之前的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的2021年全年10-K表格和即將提交的2022年第二季度10-Q表格。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain non-core and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the second quarter 2022 financial results news release.

其次，本報告提及的收益不包括某些非核心及非常規項目。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳及其他相關揭露，包括排除項目和調整後項目的描述，請參閱 2022 年第二季財務績效新聞稿。

As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we will now go straight into Q&A. Tracy, please let's start with our first question.

由於我們昨晚已在網站上發布了幻燈片和準備好的發言稿，現在我們將直接進入問答環節。 Tracy，請開始我們的第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question from Alex Yefremov from KeyBanc.

（操作員指示）現在我們將回答來自 KeyBanc 的 Alex Yefremov 提出的第一個問題。

Can you just discuss the reduction in price cost expectations for Advanced Materials? Is this -- do you view this as more of a timing issue or relatively more permanent reset of expectations?

能否談談先進材料公司價格成本預期下調的原因？您認為這更多的是一個時間問題，還是一個相對持久的預期調整？

I'm sorry, I just want to make sure I understand the question. You're talking about how the raw material trends are going to play out and whether it's sort of temporary or long term. Is that correct?

抱歉，我只是想確認我理解了這個問題。您說的是原材料趨勢將如何發展，以及這種趨勢是暫時的還是長期的。對嗎？

Yes, correct.

是的，正確。

Yes. So as we look at the raw material situation in Advanced Materials, we view it more temporary than long-term structural. You can already see that where paraxylene prices popped up and have already sort of come down a considerable amount. Obviously, the price of oil drives everything. But when you think about the sort of margin above oil, if you will, I think that we view the short-term spike really around the driving season this summer as something that doesn't continue going into the future.

是的。因此，當我們審視先進材料公司的原料情勢時，我們認為它更多的是暫時性的，而非長期的結構性因素。您已經可以看到，對二甲苯價格曾經一度上漲，但現在已經大幅回落。顯然，油價主導著一切。但考慮到油價與油價之間的利差，我認為我們認為今年夏季駕車旺季前後出現的短期飆升不會持續到未來。

When it comes to PVOH and VAM, which was the real issue from a spread point of view, we also don't think that's a long-term structural trend either. The spike-up that we've seen in PVOH and VAM is really a supply-driven event more than a demand-driven event, particular VAM production in the U.S. in the second quarter, about 2/3 of the capacity was off-line, which is just an extraordinary number of unplanned outages. And a lot of that VAM doesn't just go to the U.S., it also goes to the U.S., and that VAM is also made into PVOH, which are the 2 key raw materials that we buy for making the interlayers. And those prices went up dramatically and even more uniquely for us because it was not just a price spike, it was a supply shortage that was quite severe.

至於PVOH和VAM，從價差的角度來看，這才是真正的問題所在，但我們也不認為這是長期的結構性趨勢。我們看到的PVOH和VAM價格飆升，實際上更多是由供應驅動而非需求驅動，尤其是美國第二季度的VAM生產，約有三分之二的產能處於停產狀態，這是非常嚴重的計劃外停產。而且，許多VAM不僅銷往美國，也銷往美國國內，這些VAM也被製成PVOH，而PVOH是我們生產中間膜所需的兩種關鍵原料。這些價格大幅上漲，這對我們來說尤其特殊，因為這不僅僅是價格飆升，而是由相當嚴重的供應短缺造成的。

So we had to go by spot material out of China at very high prices, combined with antidumping duties and higher logistics costs. So that's how you end up with VAM, PVOH price that's 90% higher year-over-year, that's not remotely sustainable. You can already see VAM prices dropping in Asia in the recent month. And you can see that some people are finally getting some of their capacity back online, but that's still a process ongoing through the third quarter as far as we can see.

因此，我們只好以極高的價格從中國進口現貨原料，再加上反傾銷稅和更高的物流成本。最終導致VAM和PVOH價格較去年同期上漲90%，根本不可持續。最近一個月，亞洲的VAM價格已經下降。我們也看到一些企業終於恢復了部分產能，但據我們所知，這仍是一個持續的過程，將持續到第三季。

So we do expect that to be a headwind, not just in the second quarter, but in the back half of the year, but expect the trend to get a little bit better in the fourth quarter and certainly better next year. And as you all know, that's the one business where if you have a kind of extreme spike, it's more challenging to manage. We have these long-term annual contracts. We did a great job of getting the prices up in those contracts to cover all the raw material increases from last year, that raw material prices, of course, increased with just inflation through the first quarter and then all the supply outages in the second quarter.

因此，我們確實預計這將是一個阻力，不僅在第二季度，而且在今年下半年也是如此，但預計第四季度趨勢會有所好轉，明年肯定會更好。眾所周知，這是一個如果價格出現極端飆升，管理起來就會更具挑戰性的行業。我們簽訂了這些長期年度合約。我們出色地提高了這些合約的價格，以彌補去年所有原材料價格的上漲。當然，原材料價格在第一季隨著通貨膨脹而上漲，然後在第二季度經歷了所有供應中斷。

And while we have some flexibility in the contracts, they don't give you this much flexibility in how you manage price. And so we had spread compression in the second, and what we expect in the third quarter for that business. But overall, this is all about market tightness in commodity markets, whether it's VAM, PVOH or PX and in these commodities when the market softened up, whether it's demand softening a little bit in coatings for VAM or just the overall tightness coming off a bit in PX, you've already seen the benefits of prices starting to come off.

雖然我們在合約方面有一定的彈性，但它們並沒有給你如此大的價格管理彈性。因此，我們在第二季的價差有所壓縮，預計第三季該業務的價差也會有所壓縮。但總的來說，這都與大宗商品市場的緊張程度有關，無論是VAM、PVOH或PX。在這些商品中，當市場走弱時，無論是VAM塗料需求略有減弱，還是PX整體緊張程度略有緩解，你都已經看到了價格開始回落的好處。

And as a second question, you talked about signing a deal with baseload customer for your third project in the U.S. Is this large enough to kind of be confident that this project will go forward? Can you provide us any kind of frame of reference how big is this baseload customer relative to the project?

第二個問題，您提到與基荷客戶簽署了在美國第三個專案的協議。這個協議的規模是否足以讓我們有信心繼續推進這個計畫？您能否提供一些參考數據，看看這個基荷客戶相對於整個專案的規模有多大？

So the answer is yes. This is -- when we say baseload, we mean baseload. So it is a big customer and a very high quality, incredible customer. And we are encouraged by all the progress we've made with them in defining a structure that meets our needs around margin stability to make this investment and long-term commitment on their part with that margin stability. So yes, we feel good about it.

所以答案是肯定的。我們說的「基載」指的是基載。所以，他們是一個大客戶，而且品質非常高，非常出色。我們與他們合作，在製定符合我們利潤穩定需求的架構方面取得了進展，這讓我們備受鼓舞，他們也因此做出了這項投資和長期承諾，以保持利潤穩定。所以，是的，我們對此感到滿意。

We know letters of intent are just that, intent. So until a contract is signed, we're not going to sort of talk about that customer and whether it's quantity or the structure of what we achieved but we feel good about it. And I think we're making really good progress. And hopefully, you'll hear sometime soon in the next quarter or so that we've sort of got that done.

我們知道意向書只是一份意向書。所以在合約簽署之前，我們不會談論客戶，無論是數量還是我們已達成的成果結構，但我們對此感到滿意。我認為我們正在取得非常大的進展。希望您能在下個季度左右收到我們已完成的消息。

The -- and it's not just that customer. We have a series of other customers who also need this material and are engaged with us, and we're making great progress with them. So when we put that all together, we feel that if we achieve that milestone, that's the key that we need to sort of move forward on that project.

而且不只是這位客戶。我們還有一系列其他客戶也需要這種材料，並且正在與我們合作，我們正在與他們取得重大進展。所以，當我們把所有這些結合起來時，我們認為，如果我們實現了這個里程碑，那就是我們推進這個專案的關鍵。

And it's just a great testament that even in an uncertain economic environment, all these customers are very committed to sustainability in the long term. They know they need to deal with recycled plastic. They need to get waste out of the environment. They need to reduce their Scope 3 carbon emissions, and our project allows them to do both of those objectives at the same time, and they know the mechanical recycling is not enough to serve the market. And so what we have is molecular recycling is a perfect complement or partnership with the mechanical guys to solve that challenge. So I feel really good about how it's going.

這充分證明，即使在不確定的經濟環境下，所有這些客戶都致力於長期永續發展。他們知道需要處理再生塑膠。他們需要將廢物從環境中清除。他們需要減少範圍三的碳排放，而我們的計畫可以讓他們同時實現這兩個目標。他們知道機械回收不足以滿足市場需求。因此，我們採用的分子回收技術是與機械回收公司的完美補充或合作，可以解決這個挑戰。因此，我對目前的進展感到非常滿意。

We will now take our next question from John Roberts from Credit Suisse.

我們現在將回答瑞士信貸的約翰羅伯茲提出的下一個問題。

John, we can't hear you.

約翰，我們聽不到你說話。

I'm sorry, I was on mute. Mark, are you still ramping up mixed waste plastic into the gasifier? And how far do you think you can take that? What are the theoretical limits?

抱歉，我剛才靜音了。馬克，你還在把混合廢塑膠加到氣化爐裡嗎？你覺得能做到什麼程度？理論上的極限是多少？

So John, yes, we still are ramping up that project, and thank you for reminding everyone that it's not just methanolysis, which is incredibly exciting and has a huge amount of economic potential as well as impact on improving the environment. Our cellulosic opportunities are also quite strong in this marketplace, and that's where we go with this gasifier.

所以，約翰，是的，我們仍在推進這個計畫。謝謝你提醒大家，這不僅是甲醇分解，甲醇分解非常令人興奮，它不僅具有巨大的經濟潛力，還能改善環境。我們在這個市場上的纖維素商業機會也相當可觀，而這正是我們開發這款氣化爐的目標所在。

So we have multiple options on how to ramp up the feed. And we -- as we look at the demand curve in front of us for the next 3 years, we believe we can ramp it up to serve all that demand growth. We're not going to talk about the technical details of this, but we're very confident that there's no constraint in our ability to grow with the market.

因此，我們有多種提高飼料產量的方案。展望未來三年的需求曲線，我們相信我們能夠提高飼料產量，以滿足所有需求成長。我們不會談論這方面的技術細節，但我們非常有信心，我們能夠與市場同步成長，沒有任何限制。

The -- and the market is really expanding and growing really incredibly well. So you've got the Naia textile fibers that even in a down textile market today is actually demand exceeding supply, and we're working hard on how to expand capacity, the value -- the sustainable value proposition of a biopolymer where the microfibers that might break off in the ocean biodegrade is just very compelling. And then you add in recycled plastic, and it's a trifecta win on the environmental with bio recycled and biodegradable.

市場確實在不斷擴張，而且成長勢頭非常好。即使在當今紡織市場低迷的情況下，Naia紡織纖維的需求仍然超過供應，我們正在努力擴大產能，生物聚合物的可持續價值主張非常引人注目，因為在海洋中斷裂的微纖維可以被生物降解。再加上再生塑料，生物再生和可生物降解在環保方面實現了三贏。

We've got great progress going on the micro beads, that are the biodegradable additives for cosmetic applications that we told you about Innovation Day, and the event of program is also making tremendous progress in the marketplace around how we can sort of replace polystyrene in food service and some of their applications.

我們在微珠方面取得了很大進展，微珠是用於化妝品應用的可生物降解添加劑，我們在創新日向您介紹了這一點，並且該計劃的活動也在市場上取得了巨大進展，即我們如何在食品服務及其某些應用中替代聚苯乙烯。

So we're really excited. The growth expectations are sort of honestly exceeding what we imagine. So we're working hard on how we're going to evolve in that capacity to keep pace with it all on the polymer side as well as how we take in the waste plastic. So it's all going really well.

所以我們真的非常興奮。成長預期確實超出了我們的預期。因此，我們正在努力提升產能，以跟上聚合物業務以及廢塑膠回收的步伐。所以一切都進展順利。

Okay. And then did you finish the ethylene-to-propylene conversion project that you were working on? It sounded like that in the release, but I thought that was still yet to come?

好的。那麼您正在進行的乙烯-丙烯轉化專案完成了嗎？新聞稿裡好像是這麼說的，但我以為還沒完成？

No, John, it's yet to come. We did the RGP project, as you know, a couple of years ago that allowed us to reduce a good portion of our ethylene production and switch it to propylene through our crackers as we change the mix to use RGP instead of ethane. So that's on full tilt right now.

不，約翰，還沒到。你知道，我們幾年前就做過RGP項目，這個項目讓我們減少了很大一部分乙烯產量，並透過裂解裝置將其轉換為丙烯，因為我們改變了原料組合，用RGP取代了乙烷。所以現在這個計畫正在全力進行中。

You can do the math and see that ethylene prices are pretty much down to cash cost in the second quarter as well as we go forward in the third. So we're pushing that as much as we possibly can. But the E-to-P is an investment we need to make going forward. And it is a great investment. It's just a timing question of getting it done, but it would remove the entirety of our bulk ethylene exposure in the marketplace and switch it to the propylene whenever we want to. It has flexibility to go back and forth. So if ethylene is great, we can sell it. But in times like this, we could completely eliminate any bulk ethylene, and that would take a lot of volatility out of the business.

你可以算一下，乙烯價格在第二季以及第三季基本上都已降至現金成本。所以我們正在盡力推動這項進程。但乙烯轉丙烯是我們未來需要進行的一項投資。而且是一項很棒的投資。這只是一個時機問題，但它將使我們在市場上完全擺脫大宗乙烯的依賴，並隨時將其轉換為丙烯。它具有靈活的轉換方式。所以，如果乙烯市場好，我們可以賣。但在這種時候，我們可以完全停止任何大宗乙烯業務，這將大大降低業務波動性。

And when does that actually get done then?

那麼什麼時候才能真正完成呢？

It takes about 2 years to get billed, John. So it's not really going to have an impact until you look out and say it's like 2024, '25 time frame from where we are today.

約翰，大概需要兩年時間才能開立帳單。所以，它其實不會產生影響，直到你展望未來，例如從現在來看，大概是2024年或2025年。

We will now take our next question from Josh Spector from UBS.

我們現在將回答瑞銀的 Josh Spector 提出的下一個問題。

I just wanted to dig into some of the sequential outlook for AM. You're forecasting up 10% sequentially. Your full year comments kind of impact 4Q could be flattish sequentially. Typically, there's a pretty big step down in 4Q and then it's followed by a pretty big step up into the first quarter next year. So wondering if you could walk through that 4Q thought versus 1Q? What drives 4Q flattish? And what should we expect 1Q up into next year off of that level?

我只是想深入了解AM的環比前景。您預測季增10%。您對全年業績的預期，第四季可能與上一季持平。通常情況下，第四季業績會大幅下滑，然後在明年第一季大幅成長。您能否談談第四季與第一季相比的走勢？是什麼原因導致了第四季業績持平？我們預計明年第一季的業績會在這個水準上有所成長嗎？

So in the back half of the year, as we look at the trend rates that we had in the first half of the year, obviously, first quarter was disrupted by about $100 million earnings in AM for the steam line events. So you sort of have to add that back, if you will, just to look at the underlying quality of the quarter.

因此，當我們回顧上半年的趨勢利率時，我們可以看到，下半年第一季的業績顯然受到了蒸汽管道事件約1億美元AM收益的影響。所以，如果你願意的話，你得把這部分收益加進去，才能看清本季的業績品質。

And so when you look at it that way, we had a very solid second quarter and the trends remained good. So when you look into the second quarter, we made good progress and starting to recover some of the spread compression that we faced last year with our pricing. And we had some limitations on the markets that we could serve. So automotive is obviously down, which was not what we expected.

從這個角度來看，我們第二季的業績非常穩健，趨勢也保持良好。回顧第二季度，我們取得了良好的進展，並開始彌補去年定價過程中面臨的部分價差壓縮。我們所能服務的市場也存在一些限制。汽車市場顯然有所下滑，這並非我們預期的。

And then from 1Q to 2Q and with logistics constraints on how much of the durables demand we could serve, that was well in excess of logistics and our production capacity in the second quarter given the limited production we had in the first quarter.

然後從第一季到第二季度，由於物流限制了我們能夠滿足的耐用品需求量，考慮到第一季度的產量有限，第二季度的物流和生產能力遠遠超過了我們的生產能力。

So as you roll into the third quarter, you've got continued improvement in pricing and continued capture in recovery of spreads as you move into the back half of the year versus the first half of the year, that's a tailwind. You've also got pretty stable markets. It's important to keep in mind that while there is some softness in durables, there's a lot of the market that's quite stable. So about 40% of the demand in Advanced Materials is very stable in medical, consumer packaging, cosmetics. And in Advanced Materials, B&C is actually stable. It's commercial demand that's actually holding up fairly well.

因此，進入第三季度，價格持續改善，價差也持續回升，進入下半年，而非上半年，這是利好因素。市場也相當穩定。需要注意的是，雖然耐久財市場略顯疲軟，但大部分市場仍相當穩定。例如，在先進材料領域，醫療、消費品包裝和化妝品領域約有40%的需求非常穩定。在先進材料領域，B&C的需求其實也比較穩定。商業需求實際上保持得相當好。

And then you've got automotive that's going to have some amount of recovery in the back half of the year versus the first half. obviously, a little bit less than we expected, but still recovering. So you've got that as a sequential tailwind going into the second half of the year.

汽車業下半年將比上半年有所復甦。當然，復甦幅度會比我們預期的略低，但仍在復甦中。所以，下半年的復甦將是持續的利多因素。

And then the consumer durables, which is sort of the biggest exposure to what you're seeing from Walmart and Target and all of those companies, demand is coming off, but a good portion of that demand, frankly, we couldn't meet with our production and logistics limitations. So it's not all impacting our outlook for the demand in the back half of the year.

然後是耐用消費品，這部分產品受沃爾瑪、塔吉特等公司的影響最大，需求正在下降，但坦白說，很大一部分需求是我們無法滿足的，因為我們的生產和物流能力有限。所以，這些因素並不會影響我們對下半年需求的期待。

So we're not expecting that much of a net hit of how demand drops relative to what we can produce, especially since we're trying to catch up with so many customers from the production limitations in the first quarter. So overall, the demand, obviously, is a little bit less than we expected. That's why we sort of reduced our outlook for AM in the back half of the year, but not that much. So all those are sort of the key trends, continue to improve spread, continue to improve volume mix on a trend basis versus sort of the limitations that we had in the second quarter.

因此，我們預期需求相對於我們產能的下降幅度不會太大，尤其是在我們努力滿足第一季受產量限制影響的眾多客戶的情況下。因此，整體而言，需求顯然比我們預期的要低。這就是為什麼我們下調了下半年增材製造的預期，但幅度並沒有那麼大。所有這些都是關鍵趨勢，繼續改善價差，並繼續在趨勢基礎上改善產量組合，以彌補第二季的產量限制。

Okay. I mean that's helpful. I understand asking about '23 is obviously a bit early, but I think if I consider that demand kind of stabilizes, your 4Q levels maybe $170 million in EBIT. Are there one-time catch-up items in there that then remove that typical $30 million, $20 million step-up into the early part of next year? Or is that a normalized base that we should be growing off of?

好的。我的意思是，這很有幫助。我知道問23年顯然有點早，但我認為，如果考慮到需求趨於穩定，你們第四季的息稅前利潤（EBIT）水準可能達到1.7億美元。這裡面是否有一次性的補足項目，可以抵銷掉明年年初通常的3000萬到2000萬美元的增量？或者說，這是我們應該以此為基礎成長的正常化基數？

Well, if you look at the performance we're going to have in the back half of the year and what we guided and annualize it, it's a pretty good earnings number that you would carry into next year. You'd have continued volume mix growth. You've got to remember, we have a lot of innovation, especially in durables. That's why our demand is holding up so well.

嗯，如果你看看我們下半年的業績表現，以及我們給出的預期，並進行年化，你會發現這是一個相當不錯的盈利數字，而且可以延續到明年。銷量組合將持續成長。要知道，我們有很多創新，尤其是在耐用品領域。這就是為什麼我們的需求保持強勁的原因。

Tritan is winning all over the place, especially with recycled content, especially as you go into next year when the methanolysis plant starts up, and that will really benefit the back half of the year, in particular, of accelerating growth in the sort of durables area as well as cosmetics.

Tritan 在各方面都表現出色，尤其是在回收方面，尤其是在明年甲醇分解工廠啟動時，這將真正有利於今年下半年，特別是加速耐用品領域以及化妝品領域的成長。

We continue the cellulosics that John just asked about a lot of that Aventa growth that we're talking about, that's the food service products on cellulosics or wins we just told you about in our prepared remarks, in the eyewear market, et cetera, all those are sort of building to grow faster than underlying markets on the sustainability trends in both polyester and cellulosics.

我們繼續討論約翰剛才詢問的纖維素材料，我們正在談論的 Aventa 增長的很多方面，即纖維素材料的食品服務產品或我們剛才在準備好的評論中告訴您的勝利，在眼鏡市場等等，所有這些都是在聚酯和纖維素材料的可持續發展趨勢下比基礎市場增長更快。

You've got continued automotive growth next year in that recovery phase. You've got these markets that are stable, that will continue to grow like medical and consumable packaging, et cetera, cosmetics, another market heavily levered to circular. So demand looks really good.

在復甦階段，明年汽車市場將持續成長。此外，醫療和消費品包裝等市場也保持穩定，將持續成長。化妝品市場也是另一個高度依賴循環經濟的市場。因此，需求看起來非常強勁。

I'm not going to pretend to guess at the net of the outcome relative to the economy next year. No one knows whether it's going to be slow growth, mild recession, something worse, so we're not going to start giving any kind of guidance on total basis, but we certainly will have a lot of vectors to grow.

我不會假裝猜測明年經濟的最終結果。沒人知道明年經濟是緩慢成長、輕微衰退，還是更糟，所以我們不會給出任何整體指引，但我們肯定會有很多成長機會。

And then you got continued spread recovery, as I just talked about, VAM and PVOH prices are going to come off of these exceptionally extreme highs due to all these supply outages. And so you've got tailwinds there, probably tailwinds as well in PX and so spread also a tailwind for next year. So there's a lot of different reasons that AM should have a good year, and you're going to have an easy comp in the first quarter relative to this year.

然後，正如我剛才提到的，價差持續回升。由於所有這些供應中斷，VAM 和 PVOH 的價格將從這些異常高位回落。因此，那裡有順風，PX 可能也有順風，因此明年的價差也會順風。因此，有很多不同的理由可以證明 AM 今年應該會表現良好，而且與今年相比，第一季的業績將比較輕鬆。

We will now take our next question from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

我們現在將回答德意志銀行的 David Begleiter 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, in CI, you talk about structurally improved segment earnings quality. Given that, what do you think the new normalized earnings level here is in CI going forward?

馬克，在CI部分，您談到了結構性改善的分部獲利品質。有鑑於此，您認為未來CI的新的正常化獲利水準會是多少？

Well, Dave, thanks for the question. And we're still trying to work our way through the math on that. You have to sort of look at the long-term energy cost structure implications of what's going on. Clearly, right now, with what's going on in the Ukraine war, with the shift towards more green energy and the lack of progress on that front in the short term, that means that things like natural gas are even a more need around the world than anyone ever imagined.

戴夫，謝謝你的提問。我們仍在努力計算這個問題。你必須考慮當前情勢對長期能源成本結構的影響。顯然，鑑於目前烏克蘭戰爭的進展，以及向更多綠色能源的轉變以及短期內這方面缺乏進展，這意味著全球對天然氣等能源的需求將比任何人想像的都要大。

You've got a shift from the cost structure on a global basis where the European, the Asians are going to be paying a lot more natural gas relative to the U.S., even though our prices are really high right now in the U.S., they're exceptionally high everywhere else. And so that's an advantage that's going to help us going into the future, but I'm not about ready to quantify what that means, but certainly better than what we were talking about in the Innovation Day in December and when we build that guidance.

全球成本結構發生了變化，歐洲和亞洲的天然氣價格將遠高於美國，儘管我們目前在美國的價格確實很高，但在其他任何地方的價格都高得離譜。這是一個優勢，將幫助我們走向未來，但我還沒準備好量化這意味著什麼，但肯定比我們在12月創新日和製定指導方針時討論的要好。

And it's important to remember that before we even get to that topic, there's a lot of actions we have taken to structurally improve this business. 40% of the revenue in this business is in really actually high quality, good margin, higher-margin businesses than the segment average on a normal basis. So you've got functional means, which is the biggest part of that 40% going into ag and they have cost pass-through contracts with stable margins. You've got a nice specialty plasticizer business in the benzoic acid area that has nice stable margins, good growth curves around sustainability. And then you've got the acetyl business.

重要的是，在我們討論這個主題之前，我們已經採取了很多措施來從結構上改善這項業務。該業務40%的收入來自真正高品質、高利潤率、利潤率高於行業平均的業務。所以，我們擁有功能性業務，這40%收入中最大的部分用於農業，並且我們簽訂了成本轉嫁合同，利潤率穩定。我們在苯甲酸領域擁有優質的特種增塑劑業務，利潤率穩定，並在永續發展方面擁有良好的成長曲線。此外，我們還有乙醯基業務。

And for us, it's focused on the acetic anhydride and some other derivatives that are pretty stable and actually tied to demand growth in food, feed pharma which are all, again, stable, attractive businesses. And then, of course, we've made the investments we just talked about on RGP. We shut down our Singapore plant that was the biggest source of earnings volatility we had in the company when it came to olefins given the dynamics of the Asian market and then the future of E2P I mentioned.

我們專注於醋酸酐和其他一些衍生物，這些產品相當穩定，而且實際上與食品、飼料和製藥行業的需求增長息息相關，這些行業同樣穩定且具有吸引力。當然，我們也對RGP進行了剛才提到的投資。考慮到亞洲市場的動態以及我之前提到的E2P的未來，我們關閉了新加坡工廠，該工廠是該公司烯烴業務獲利波動最大的來源。

So a lot of different things going on there that give us confidence in the back half of this year is going to hold up a little bit better than we expected 3 months ago. And as we go into next year, should also hold up better than we expect. But I'm not going to quantify anything about next year with all the macroeconomic uncertainty.

所以，很多事情讓我們對今年下半年的前景充滿信心，這些事情會比我們三個月前的預期好一些。進入明年，情況也應該會比我們預期的還要好。但由於宏觀經濟存在諸多不確定性，我不會對明年的任何情況進行量化。

And just lastly, on your implied Q3 guidance, you don't talk about solid EPS growth year-over-year. What do you think solid really means? Is it up 5%? Is it up 10% year-over-year? Anything in that range?

最後，關於您隱含的第三季業績指引，您並沒有提到每股盈餘較去年同期成長穩健。您認為「穩健」究竟意味著什麼？是年增5%嗎？是年增10%嗎？還是在這個範圍內？

I'll let Willie take that one.

我會讓威利拿走那個。

David, I think as you look at what we've seen to date, if you look at year-over-year being roughly 2.45 last year, we were 2.83 in Q2, you can look at, I'll call it, approaching the middle of that range.

大衛，我認為，當你看看我們迄今為止所看到的情況時，如果你看看去年的同比數字大約是 2.45，而我們在第二季度的數字是 2.83，你可以看到，我稱之為接近該範圍的中間值。

We will now take our next question from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

我們現在將回答摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas 提出的下一個問題。

In general, do you think your domestic pricing of all kinds of products has benefited from the difficulty of imports coming into the United States? And do you think that if logistics are improved globally, that might make pricing tougher for your products in 2023?

整體而言，您認為貴公司各類產品的國內定價是否受惠於美國進口商品的困難？您是否認為，如果全球物流改善，貴公司產品在2023年的定價是否會變得更加困難？

So when I think about that, Jeff, I think that's mostly a question for CI than anything else. And certainly, logistics constraints out of Asia have limited some of those products' ability to come into the U.S., and that's contributed to some of the market tightness that all chemical intermediate companies around the globe, especially North American ones are benefiting from.

所以，傑夫，當我思考這個問題時，我認為這主要是CI的問題，而不是其他任何問題。當然，亞洲的物流限制限制了部分產品進入美國，這在一定程度上導致了市場緊張，而全球所有化學中間體公司，尤其是北美公司，都從中受益。

On the specialty side, I don't think that's really a factor. Jeff, we haven't really seen logistics constraints that Asian competitors be a limiting factor whatsoever on the specialties. And the specialties have enough value and margin for anyone, that's not a limiting factor. So it's really just a CI question.

就特種化學品而言，我認為這並非真正的因素。傑夫，我們尚未真正看到亞洲競爭對手的物流限制對特種化學品造成任何限制。特種化學品對任何企業來說都具有足夠的價值和利潤空間，因此這並非限制因素。所以這其實只是一個CI問題。

we will now take our next question from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

我們現在將回答摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews 提出的下一個問題。

On the Kingsport facility that's going to start up in '23, you note that you have 1,000 sales opportunities, which is more than the capacity of the plant. I was just wondering how are you thinking about allocating that volume from a customer perspective, if demand is indeed in excess of supply? Are there ways that you can leverage your existing relationships to improve contract structures or other things in Advanced Materials? Or how are you thinking about marketing the material?

關於將於2023年投產的金斯波特工廠，您提到有1000個銷售機會，這超過了工廠的產能。我想知道，如果需求確實超過供應，您從客戶的角度如何分配這些銷售量？您是否可以利用現有的關係來改善合約結構或先進材料業務的其他方面？或者您如何考慮推廣這種材料？

So one, it's been tremendous to see such strong engagement across so many iconic brands interested in the recycled content and how that can play a role in their sustainability goals and their positioning relative composition in the marketplace.

因此，首先，看到如此多的標誌性品牌對回收材料表現出如此濃厚的興趣，並看到回收材料在其永續發展目標和市場定位中發揮重要作用，我們感到非常高興。

And as we said, we've got over 1,000 sales opportunities that's in excess of the capacity of the plant. So we are in that approach of figuring out how we align with the most strategic customers that provide us a long -- the best long-term growth.

正如我們所說，我們有超過1000個銷售機會，超出了工廠的產能。因此，我們正在採取這種方法，以找出如何與最具策略性的客戶保持一致，從而為我們提供長期最佳的成長機會。

And we have relationships visit with a lot of companies that have been sort of loyal dedicated customers to us for a long time with our current products and now they want to add recycle content. So obviously, they get preferential treatment versus someone who's new. And so we're trying to balance all that out.

我們與許多公司建立了合作關係，這些公司長期以來一直是我們現有產品的忠實客戶，現在他們想添加可回收成分。顯然，與新客戶相比，他們獲得了優惠。因此，我們正在努力平衡所有這些因素。

And when we look at some of the -- and we look at the quality end markets that drive a lot of where we want to go. So markets like hydration, which is in the trends of sustainability, reduce reuse and then recycle, right? So the trends moving towards hydration water bottles, for example, is a great market. It's going to grow incredibly well going in the future as people become more conscious about plastics, single-use products.

當我們審視一些——以及那些驅動我們未來發展的優質終端市場。例如像水壺這樣的市場，它符合永續發展的趨勢，減少重複使用，然後回收，對吧？所以，例如，水壺的流行趨勢是一個很大的市場。隨著人們對塑膠和一次性產品的意識不斷增強，未來這個市場將會發展得非常好。

And when you look at these high-end brands like Williams Sonoma and Cuisinart and Ninja and all these other products where they're the leaders in the marketplace and they're winning share and growing in the markets, you want to align with those winners.

當你看到 Williams Sonoma、Cuisinart、Ninja 等高端品牌以及所有其他產品時，它們都是市場的領導者，它們正在贏得市場份額並在市場上不斷增長，你會想要與這些贏家保持一致。

So same thing on cosmetics. We've got great relationships with all the top main luxury brands, LVMH, L'Oreal, Chanel, et cetera, that allow us to sort of help them, truly be sustainability leaders and especially for our future French project, not just our current project, those brands are very focused on their products being made in France, being global leaders in sustainability and highly engaged, not just in buying from Kingsport, but buying our specialty products that we'll make in our French plant. So it's aligning with the winners, and the leaders is how we are approaching it.

化妝品也是如此。我們與所有頂級奢侈品牌都建立了良好的關係，例如路威酩軒集團、歐萊雅、香奈兒等等，這使我們能夠幫助他們真正成為永續發展的領導者。尤其是在我們未來的法國項目（而不僅僅是我們目前的項目）中，這些品牌非常注重在法國生產其產品，成為可持續發展領域的全球領導者，並且高度參與其中，不僅從金斯波特採購，還採購我們將在法國工廠生產的特色產品。因此，我們的目標是與成功者和領導者保持一致。

We will now take our next question from Mike Leithead from Barclays.

我們現在將回答巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead 提出的下一個問題。

First question is just on fibers. One of your competitors in acetate tow last night, kind of called out what they phrased the sort of untenable situation in the tow market today, needing a bit of an overhaul to increase the value proposition. Obviously, Eastman's previously made a bit of a pivot towards textiles and nonwovens. But just curious how you're thinking about the filter tow market today or just the overall situation with your acetate assets?

第一個問題是關於纖維的。昨晚，你們醋酸纖維絲束業務的一位競爭對手指出，目前絲束市場情況難以為繼，需要進行一些調整來提升價值主張。顯然，伊士曼之前已經將業務重心轉向了紡織品和非織造布。我很好奇，您如何看待目前的過濾絲束市場，或者只是對醋酸纖維資產的整體狀況有何看法？

Sure. So tow market from a demand point of view has been actually quite stable. The market is not actually declining quite as fast as we expected. A lot of it's benefited from things like the heat-not-burn cigarettes that also use tow. And so you've got traditional cigarettes declining, our burden growing, sort of that offset some of that market dynamics.

當然。所以從需求的角度來看，菸草市場其實相當穩定。市場實際上並沒有像我們預期的那樣快速下滑。很大程度上得益於像加熱不燃燒香煙這樣的產品，它們也使用煙草。因此，傳統香菸銷量下降，我們的負擔增加，這在某種程度上抵消了部分市場動態。

And as you noted, our textile business is doing incredibly well, right? So we put that in motion several years ago to say, to some degree, the cigarette market is going to decline. And the textile market is incredibly attractive where we've got a very compelling sustainability offer for the market and what we can offer, as I mentioned earlier, and great customer engagement in a way to sort of replace any decline in tow, and we're definitely at that stage where that's going on. So we feel good about where we are from a volume point of view.

正如您所說，我們的紡織業務表現非常好，對吧？幾年前我們就已經開始行動了，某種程度上是因為捲菸市場將會下滑。而紡織市場極具吸引力，我們為該市場提供了極具吸引力的可持續發展方案，正如我之前提到的，我們能夠提供的產品和良好的客戶互動，在某種程度上可以彌補捲菸銷量的下滑。我們目前正處於這樣的階段。所以，從銷售的角度來看，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。

From a margin point of view, you've seen us increase prices in a pretty meaningful way for this segment because the raw material costs are higher, pulp costs are higher, energy costs are higher, operating costs are higher. And so we need to improve our pricing and improve our margins back to a reasonable level because they currently are not at a reasonable level.

從利潤率的角度來看，您已經看到我們大幅提高了該部門的價格，因為原材料成本、紙漿成本、能源成本和營運成本都在上漲。因此，我們需要優化定價，將利潤率提升到合理水平，因為目前的利潤率並不合理。

And so yes, we need to work with our customers to help recover those costs. So we continue to invest and support this business and in what they need to do. So we're looking for all those opportunities to partner and have those kind of conversations with our customers to find a path that makes sense and recover those margins to keep supporting this business.

是的，我們需要與客戶合作，幫助收回這些成本。因此，我們會繼續投資並支持這項業務以及他們需要做的事情。我們正在尋找所有合作機會，並與客戶進行類似的對話，以找到一條合理的途徑，恢復利潤率，繼續支持這項業務。

Great. Perfect. And then just quickly, can you just remind us on the Tennessee methanolysis facility, if you do hit that mechanical completion target at the end of 1Q '23, just when should we expect to see commercial production rates and sort of see it run through your P&L then?

太好了，完美。然後，您能否快速提醒我們田納西州甲醇分解設施的情況？如果您在2023年第一季末確實達到了機械完工目標，那麼我們什麼時候可以看到商業化生產率，並看到它影響到您的損益表？

Yes. So it's going to take a period of time like it does in every plant to start it up. So we complete the end of first quarter, the second quarter is going to be a process of starting it up and you're going to see the benefit in the second half of next year. It's not going to be a huge benefit as you're ramping up when it comes to bottom line earnings because you're going to have all the costs showing up as well of the plan, but it will certainly start helping and really make a difference in a pretty significant way in 2024.

是的。所以，就像所有工廠一樣，啟動它需要一段時間。我們在第一季末完成，第二季將是一個啟動過程，你會在明年下半年看到效益。雖然這不會帶來巨大的效益，因為在底線盈利方面，你會看到所有成本也出現在計劃中，但它肯定會在2024年開始發揮作用，並真正產生相當顯著的影響。

We will now take our next question from Michael Sison from Wells Fargo.

我們現在將回答富國銀行的邁克爾·西森提出的下一個問題。

Nice quarter. In terms of AFP volume growth in the first half is pretty impressive. Do you see a similar level in the second half in terms of growth?

這個季度表現不錯。就AFP業務量而言，上半年的成長相當可觀。您認為下半年的成長水準會與上半年類似嗎？

So Mike, it's good to hear from you. So we do see volume trends continuing, probably not as strong as the first half. So first half had just tremendous growth across the board for animal nutrition, specialty fluids, care chemicals, even B&C in some of the restocking efforts that are going on. So growth was quite good. Obviously, automotive wasn't where we wanted it to be, as everyone knows.

Mike，很高興收到你的來信。我們確實看到銷售趨勢持續，但可能不如上半年強勁。上半年，動物營養、特殊液體、護理化學品，甚至包括正在進行的補貨行動中的B&C產品，都實現了大幅成長。所以成長相當不錯。顯然，汽車業務的表現不如我們預期，這一點大家都知道。

When we look at the back half of the year, we still expect strong volume growth continuing in a lot of stable markets. And so we'll see that benefit in animal nutrition, specialty fluids, both the aviation recovery as well as heat transfer fluids for LNG, care chemicals continuing. We also expect some recovery in the automotive OEM side, maybe some softness on the auto refinish side.

展望下半年，我們仍預期許多穩定市場的銷售量將持續強勁成長。因此，我們將看到動物營養、特殊液體、航空復甦以及液化天然氣傳熱流體和護理化學品領域的利好持續存在。我們也預期汽車原始設備製造商方面將出現一些復甦，而汽車修補漆方面可能會出現一些疲軟。

So I'm not quite sure how that's going to net out. B&C will certainly be a bit softer, and you can just see that when it comes to architectural paint with our customers. And so we'll see that be a little bit softer. So overall, volume mix will definitely be better. Spreads will be better as we continue to recover our spreads relative to some of the compression that we faced last year where prices were chasing raws, but it was much less of an issue.

所以我不太確定最終結果會是如何。 B&C 的銷售額肯定會稍微低一些，這一點在我們與客戶合作的建築塗料業務上就能體現出來。所以我們會看到銷售額稍微低一點。所以總的來說，銷售結構一定會更好。隨著我們繼續恢復利差，利差也會有所改善。去年我們面臨的利差壓縮，當時價格追逐原料價格，但問題已經小很多了。

You have to remember in AFP last year, right? So the pricing actions we took were much swifter given the contractual contracts we had there to sort of keep up with the raws. So we have a tailwind, but it's not nearly the same scale as Advanced Materials.

你一定還記得去年在AFP的情況吧？考慮到我們在那裡簽訂的合同，我們採取的定價行動要迅速得多，以便跟上原材料的供應。所以我們有順風優勢，但規模遠不及先進材料。

So all that's going along, but then that's going to be offset by several factors to mitigate how much we're up year-over-year. You've got an FX headwind, which is pretty meaningful in AFP. You've got higher gross spend, and we have a higher shutdown schedule in the back half of this year versus last year. So all that sort of nets out -- some of that. So that's why you're going to see some decline.

所以，所有這些都在進行中，但隨後會被幾個因素抵消，從而減輕我們同比增長的幅度。外匯逆風對法新社來說意義重大。總支出增加，今年下半年的停工計畫也比去年同期更長。所有這些因素都會抵消一部分。所以，你會看到一些下滑。

And you need to remember, there's just a natural seasonal sequential decline in AFP when you go from first half to second half. with ag markets and B&C markets, things like that just less busy in the back half of the year versus the first half. So great strong start to the year, but not as much on a year-over-year basis in the back half for those combined factors.

需要記住的是，從上半年到下半年，AFP 的季節性較上月下降是正常的。對於農業市場和 B&C 市場來說，下半年的活躍度會比上半年低。因此，今年開局強勁，但由於這些因素的綜合作用，下半年的年增幅將會減弱。

Got it. And in terms of the outlook for AM, I think you outlined a pretty good portion of why in the prepared remarks. But when you think about the segments, is the shortfall similar between Tritan and interlayers? And how do we start to get that back? I mean, is that earnings power that is still there, that should come back maybe in '23 if everything -- if the headwinds kind of subside?

明白了。關於積層製造的前景，我認為您在準備好的發言中已經很好地解釋了原因。但是，當您考慮各個細分市場時，Tritan 和中間膜之間的差距是否相似？我們如何開始彌補這一差距？我的意思是，如果逆風消退，獲利能力是否仍然存在？獲利能力是否應該在 2023 年恢復？

Yes. So just to step back for a second around the segment from an end market point of view before I get to product real. When you think about the demand portfolio across AM, we'd say about 40% of the revenue is stable. That's medical, consumable packaging, cosmetics, B&C, right? That's going to continue to be stable, continue to have some growth.

是的。在談實際產品之前，我想先從終端市場的角度來回顧一下這個細分市場。考慮到整個AM的需求組合，我們認為大約40%的收入是穩定的。這些收入來自醫療、消費品包裝、化妝品和化妝品，對吧？這些收入將繼續保持穩定，並繼續保持成長。

You've got segments like medical that are still restocking to get to a safe supply level. And then you've got the auto, which has some upside versus last year or the first half of this year, however you want to look at, and that's about 30% of the revenue in the segment.

醫療等細分市場仍在補充庫存，以達到安全供應水準。此外，汽車業務的營收比去年或今年上半年有所成長，無論你怎麼看，這部分營收約佔該細分市場的30%。

And then you got a consumer durables, which is about 25% that obviously has some risk, as I discussed. So from an end market point of view, A good portion of this that's pretty stable or actually improving. And then that gets offset by sort of this durables question in particular and how that backlog of demand sort of reduces relative to our production capability.

然後是耐用消費品，大約佔比25%，顯然存在一定風險，正如我之前討論的。所以從終端市場的角度來看，其中很大一部分相當穩定，或者實際上正在改善。然後，這些風險會被耐用品問題所抵消，尤其是需求積壓相對於我們的生產能力減少。

And we think probably is a bit below that in our sort of revised outlook, then you get this innovation that drives growth across the segment. So when you think about the end markets, specialty plastics is on track to have a really good year, both in the first half of the year once we got past the first quarter, and they're certainly going to continue to have a good year on the demand side on a net basis from the back half of the year. And they have a significant amount of spread recovery in the back half of the year relative to last year. That's quite meaningful. So SP is on track to having a really good year.

我們認為，在我們修訂後的展望中，這個數字可能略低於這個水平，然後你會看到推動整個細分市場成長的創新。所以，當你考慮終端市場時，特種塑膠今年有望迎來非常好的業績，無論是在第一季結束後的上半年，還是從下半年開始，它們在淨需求方面肯定會繼續保持良好的勢頭。而且，與去年相比，它們在下半年的利差大幅回升。這意義重大。所以，特種塑膠今年有望迎來非常好的業績。

Performance films is also doing incredibly well. It's amazing to see how they kept earnings sort of stable to last year in such a difficult market. And so they've got a lot of programs allowing them in a great set of new channel programs to grow with our dealers and auto dealers. Tremendous ingenuity that they've demonstrated in China, which is a big market there with no COVID. Heroic agile acts of figuring out how to completely redo our logistics system out of Shanghai, which was shut down to another one of our locations that wasn't -- with everyone's sleeping in the place and making sure we kept our customers supported. So just a tremendous business, and that will -- and we see that continuing into the back half of the year.

高性能薄膜業務也表現得非常出色。在如此艱難的市場環境下，他們的利潤與去年基本持平，這真是令人驚嘆。他們制定了一系列新計劃，使其能夠與我們的經銷商和汽車經銷商共同發展。他們在中國展現了非凡的創造力，這是一個巨大的市場，而且沒有新冠疫情。他們採取了英勇而敏捷的行動，徹底重建了我們在上海的物流系統，當時上海的工廠已經關閉，而我們另一個工廠沒有關閉——所有員工都在原地休息，確保我們能夠持續為客戶提供支援。所以，這真是一項巨大的業務，而且我們預計這種勢頭將持續到下半年。

Interlayers is a business that has the challenge. And I think I already covered it. Demand will get a little bit better than the back half of the year, obviously, but the spread challenge is pretty significant. And so that's the one part of the portfolio. We don't think this continues at all into next year, as I mentioned earlier, where ROIC will, I think, improve for that business. But certainly, an issue there.

Interlayers 的業務面臨挑戰。我想我已經提到過了。需求顯然會比下半年好轉一些，但利差挑戰相當嚴峻。所以，這是投資組合的一部分。正如我之前提到的，我們認為這種情況不會持續到明年，我認為該業務的 ROIC 會有所改善。但這肯定是一個問題。

And so you got all those great things going, but it's important to remember, we got groth spend, and we've got global energy costs. They're going up, especially in Europe that impact all of the business. That's true probably for every company. And so that's a headwind that sort of gets netted into the math, too.

所以，所有這些好事都在發生，但重要的是要記住，我們的支出正在成長，而且全球能源成本也在上漲。能源成本正在上漲，尤其是在歐洲，這會影響我們所有的業務。這可能對每家公司來說都是如此。所以，這也會成為我們財務計算的一個不利因素。

We will now take our next question from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners.

我們現在將回答來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy 的下一個問題。

Mark, with regard to your Advanced Materials segment, I think there was some verbiage in your prepared remarks last night, whereby you indicated, you now see less improvement in global auto production versus the prior expectation in April. What is the current outlook for global builds that you're kind of building, no pun intended, into your outlook for the back half? Some of the companies that paint cars are talking about $80 million plus global builds. Is that consistent with your view? Or are you starting to see anything more cautionary there?

馬克，關於您在先進材料板塊的發言，我記得您昨晚的準備發言中有一些措辭，您提到現在全球汽車產量的改善幅度小於4月份之前的預期。您目前對全球汽車產量的展望是什麼？您是在下半年的展望中（這裡沒有雙關語的意思）提出的嗎？一些汽車噴漆公司正在討論8000萬美元以上的全球汽車產量。這與您的觀點一致嗎？還是您開始看到一些更謹慎的跡象？

No, I think that's consistent with our view. Certainly, our customers drive our demand. So as they're talking about their view on the market, it's important to pay attention to that. But no, I think it's going to get better sequentially from where we were in the first half of the year. but certainly not as much as we expected, I'd say. But I think that number is fine.

不，我認為這與我們的觀點一致。當然，我們的客戶推動著我們的需求。因此，當他們談論他們對市場的看法時，關注這一點很重要。但我認為情況會比上半年好轉，但肯定不會像我們預期的那麼好。但我認為這個數字還不錯。

Okay. And secondly, I appreciate any updated thoughts on paraxylene procurement and whether or not we should anticipate any relief there in coming months? It looks like maybe it's starting to soften a little in Europe. Not sure how you view the flow-through for the U.S. market that you have?

好的。其次，我很想知道您對對二甲苯採購的最新看法，以及未來幾個月我們是否應該預期那裡的採購會有所緩解？看起來歐洲的採購似乎開始減弱。不知道您如何看待美國市場的流通？

So PX, obviously, in June, really spiked up and into parts of July as well. But it's already come off quite a bit if you look at where it was versus where it is now.

因此，PX 顯然在 6 月大幅上漲，並在 7 月的部分時間也保持上漲勢頭。但如果你對比之前的水平和現在的水平，你會發現它已經回落了不少。

From an exposure point of view, we produce and consume the PX here in the U.S. But our exposure and how we pay for it, we've diversified quite a bit away from U.S. PX. And so that mitigates a little bit of that volatility, which was more extreme here. But we did see a spike in the last 2 months without a doubt. That's flowing through our COGS.

從風險敞口的角度來看，我們在美國生產和消費PX。但我們的風險敞口以及支付方式，已經相當多元化，不再依賴美國PX。這在一定程度上緩解了波動性，而我們之前的情況更為劇烈。但毫無疑問，過去兩個月我們確實看到了PX價格的飆升。這反映在我們的銷貨成本（COGS）上。

And our pricing model isn't an instantaneous pricing model in our specialties. So there's a lump there of higher PX costs occurred relative to our pricing strategy that we had in place with the increases that we were able to achieve. And so there will be a little bit of that sort of flowing through that will have some impact on the third quarter. I don't think it's a significant impact, Kevin, but there's a bit of that.

而我們的定價模式並非針對我們專業領域的即時定價模式。因此，相對於我們現有的定價策略以及我們能夠實現的價格上漲，PX 成本的上漲確實存在一定程度的影響。因此，這種影響會有一些，會對第三季產生一定的影響。 Kevin，我不認為影響很大，但確實有一點。

But when you look at it on a total basis, whether it's in the first half or the second half, for the year, we're making really good progress in improving our spreads in this business relative to last year. It may not be quite as much as we intended, but it's still quite significant improvement relative to where we were to get our margins back to where they should be. So we continue to feel great about investing in this business. And so it's a business where the team has done a great job in managing price and having good discipline on how to do it.

但從整體來看，無論是上半年還是下半年，我們在這個業務上的利差改善都比去年同期取得了顯著進展。雖然幅度可能不如預期，但相對於我們先前為使利潤率恢復到應有水準所做的努力，這仍然是相當顯著的改善。因此，我們仍然對投資這個業務感到十分樂觀。我們的團隊在價格管理方面做得非常出色，並且對價格管理有著嚴格的紀律。

Will now take our next question from Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

現在讓我們來回答 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch 提出的下一個問題。

That's actually Frank, but we'll take it. Nice results, gentlemen. Frank Costa or Mark Mitsch, I don't know. In the release, you obviously mentioned the 75% asset base in the U.S. and obviously, you also mentioned logistics having an impact on your business.

這實際上是弗蘭克說的，但我們會接受。先生們，結果不錯。我不知道是弗蘭克·科斯塔還是馬克·米奇。在新聞稿中，您顯然提到了75%的資產基礎在美國，而且顯然您也提到了物流對您的業務的影響。

How do you look at the impact that you've seen so far? And what's your expectations in terms of getting to a more normalized logistics that you don't have to call that out anymore having an impact on your business? What's going on in that area?

您如何看待目前所看到的影響？對於實現更規範的物流，您有什麼期望，這樣您就不必再擔心物流對您的業務造成影響了？這方面目前進展如何？

I'll let Willie take that.

我會讓威利拿著它。

Yes, Frank, to your point, I think Mark's described as we look at our asset position, we look at that as a position of strength as we serve the global markets with our specialty products. Obviously, earlier in the year, with our operational challenges, we're not achieving the year-over-year reductions in logistics costs that we had expected, and that's been compounded by the continued inflation and continued high demand in the first half of the year.

是的，弗蘭克，關於你的觀點，我認為馬克描述的是，當我們審視我們的資產狀況時，我們認為這是我們透過特色產品服務全球市場的優勢地位。顯然，今年早些時候，由於我們面臨營運挑戰，我們未能實現預期的物流成本年減，而上半年持續的通貨膨脹和持續的高需求又加劇了這種情況。

So as we think about the markets that we serve, actually, some level of softening will actually all improve the supply chains and allow us to better serve and achieve the volumes in the back half of the year. But it has been continued inflation on that front, and we've had to continue to use, I'll call it, modes of transportation and logistics that aren't completely optimized, and we look to get back to a more optimized business operations in the back half of the year.

因此，當我們思考我們所服務的市場時，實際上，一定程度的疲軟實際上會改善供應鏈，使我們能夠更好地服務市場，並在下半年實現產量目標。但在這方面，通貨膨脹持續存在，我們不得不繼續使用我稱為尚未完全優化的運輸和物流模式，我們希望在下半年恢復更優化的業務運作。

Okay, back half of the year. And Willie, sticking with you, congrats on executing the $750 million ASR. The guidance is to get to $1 billion plus buybacks for the year, so not a lot left. So how do we think about the pace of buybacks for the balance of this year?

好的，回顧一下今年上半年的情況。 Willie，繼續和你一起，恭喜你完成了7.5億美元的ASR。今年的預期是回購金額達到10億美元以上，所以剩下的不多了。那麼，我們該如何考慮今年剩餘時間的回購速度呢？

Yes, Frank, I think what you can do is we'll continue to be disciplined and you can basically spread that evenly across the last half of the year. And I guess people remain committed to greater than $1 billion, and I appreciate that.

是的，弗蘭克，我認為你能做的就是我們繼續保持紀律，基本上可以把這部分資金平均分配到下半年。我想大家仍然致力於超過10億美元的投資，我對此表示感謝。

We will now take our next question from Duffy Fischer from Goldman Sachs.

我們現在將回答高盛的達菲·菲舍爾提出的下一個問題。

Maybe a 4-parter just around the PVOH, VAM. So one, did that disproportionately hit you where it might be causing market share loss? Two, the price that you're using to offset that? Is that structural or are you using surcharges? And then third would be you obviously have some acetyls products yourselves. Are you seeing some benefit in other geographies on the acetyls that you sell that might be offsetting that? And then just the last one is how do you see the acetyls chain normalizing kind of from now through 2023, maybe?

或許可以圍繞PVOH和VAM討論四個部分。首先，這是否對你們造成了不成比例的打擊，導致市場佔有率下降？其次，你們用來抵銷這影響的價格是多少？是結構性的還是使用了附加費？第三，你們自己顯然也有一些乙醯基產品。你們在其他地區銷售乙醯基產品時，是否看到了一些收益，從而抵消了這些收益？最後一個問題是，從現在到2023年，您認為乙醯基鏈如何正常化？

Sure, Duffy. There's a lot of questions embedded in that 1 question. So good to hear from you. So on the competitive side, the VAM situation is shared by all of us. There were some unique aspects in how that price spiked up for our European asset, as I explained, where we had to buy some spot material that our competitors may not have bought as much.

當然，達菲。這個問題本身就包含了很多問題。很高興收到你的來信。所以，在競爭方面，我們所有人都面臨對賭協議的情況。正如我所解釋的，我們歐洲資產價格飆升有一些獨特的方面，我們不得不購買一些競爭對手可能沒有那麼多購買的現貨材料。

And so that's why we had some spread compression there as there was limitations on how we can move pricing relative to our contracts and competitive dynamics. So I don't think we have a significant share loss issue. Instead, we just had some spread compression that we're going through in the second and third quarter.

這就是為什麼我們的價差有所壓縮，因為我們在調整價格時，相對於合約和競爭動態的限制。所以我認為我們並沒有面臨嚴重的市佔率損失問題。相反，我們只是在第二季和第三季經歷了一些價差壓縮。

In regards to how we're managing pricing, I think that we've used a combination of contract terms that allow us with pricing and some surcharges to try to relieve some of the extremity of what we're facing right now. It's important to keep in mind that from a long-term point of view in this business, there's just tremendous growth in front of us.

關於我們如何管理價格，我認為我們採用了多種合約條款，允許我們定價，並收取一些附加費，試圖緩解我們目前面臨的困境。重要的是要記住，從這個行業的長遠來看，我們面前還有巨大的成長空間。

There's the auto recovery. But beyond that, the EVs, as we told you, have about 3.5x more value in them than combustion engine car and the way those cars are designed and the way they're using glass in a different way. So there's a tremendous amount of volume upside and mix upside, right? So as we sell more HUD, more advanced complicated windows, which is why EVs are so attractive. Those are very differentiated products, and we are launching the most innovative products in the market, both on HUD, on solar and very complicated integrated functionality that also includes solar rejection to take air conditioning load off the car in an EV.

汽車業的復甦。除此之外，正如我們之前所說，電動車的價值比內燃機汽車高出約3.5倍，而且內燃機汽車的設計方式和使用玻璃的方式也有所不同。因此，電動車的銷售和產品組合都有很大的優勢，對吧？隨著我們HUD和更先進、更複雜的車窗銷量的增加，電動車的吸引力也會增加。這些都是差異化產品，我們正在推出市場上最具創新性的產品，包括HUD、太陽能以及非常複雜的整合功能，其中還包括太陽能抑制功能，可以減輕電動車的空調負載。

So we're really excited about the innovation portfolio that's got a tremendous engagement at the auto OEM level to drive this business forward. We just need to get past the sort of supply issues that were so extensive.

所以，我們對創新產品組合感到非常興奮，它與汽車OEM廠商的密切合作推動了業務發展。我們只需要解決那些非常普遍的供應問題。

So that -- so the business we feel great about. And the -- when it comes to the broader acetyl chain, there's someone coming up in a couple of hours, you can ask that question, too, on the broader acetyl chain. What I'd say is we're not in VAM and PVOH. So obviously, we're not seeing the posing benefit in Chemical Intermediates.

所以——我們對這項業務感到非常滿意。至於更寬的乙醯基鏈，幾個小時後會有人來，你也可以問這個問題，關於更寬的乙醯基鏈。我想說的是，我們不涉足VAM和PVOH領域。所以很明顯，我們在化學中間體領域並沒有看到這種優勢。

The overall acetyl chain is holding up really well, but we're very small in acetic acid, so I can't comment on that in any meaningful way. The acetic anhydridebusiness, which is where we're the largest player in the world, and that business has always been a little bit more stable. It doesn't have fly up as much in market tightness, but it also doesn't go down as much.

乙醯基鏈整體表現良好，但我們在乙酸方面的業務規模很小，所以我無法對此發表任何有意義的評論。至於乙酸酐業務，我們是全球最大的供應商，而且這項業務一直比較穩定。在市場緊俏的情況下，它的產量沒有大幅上漲，但也沒有大幅下降。

So we're feeling like we've got a good sort of stability in that acetyl business, both in sort of what it was last year, what it is this year and what it will be next year. So it's not going through as much supply-demand dynamics.

因此，我們感覺乙醯基業務目前處於良好的穩定狀態，無論是去年、今年或明年。因此，乙醯基業務不會經歷太多的供需波動。

We will now take our next question from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

我們現在將回答花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar 提出的下一個問題。

In your prepared comments, you talked about slowing consumer durables and construction-related end markets. Can you give us some color on durables and is it appliances, home-related stuff in construction, residential, commercial? Because downstream customers like Sherwin-Williams have already warned and seeing a slowdown. Can you characterize your slowdown? And how do you see that playing out?

您在準備好的評論中談到了耐用消費品和建築相關終端市場的放緩。可否介紹一下耐久財市場的狀況？是家電、建築家居用品、住宅還是商業？因為像宣偉這樣的下游客戶已經發出警告，看到了經濟放緩的跡象。您能描述一下你們的放緩嗎？您認為這種放緩將如何發展？

Sure. So just to step back for a second, and then I'll come to the durable question. When we look at the overall portfolio, durables is an important part of the portfolio, but it's not a huge part of the portfolio. And as you think about Eastman and its overall exposure from this sort of recession question, we've dramatically improved our portfolio. You can go all the way back to 10 years ago and how much $3 billion of divested businesses that were commodities and $3.5 billion of specialty as added and all the innovation that we've been talking about for the last 8 years and how we've improved the portfolio or divesting $1 billion of revenue in AFP that was in businesses that are not performing well.

當然。先退一步，然後我再談談耐久財的問題。縱觀整個投資組合，耐久財是重要的組成部分，但佔比不大。考慮到伊士曼及其在經濟衰退中的整體表現，我們已經顯著改善了投資組合。你可以追溯到10年前，當時我們剝離了30億美元的大宗商品業務，並增加了35億美元的特種業務，以及我們過去8年一直在談論的所有創新，我們改善了投資組合，剝離了10億美元的AFP業務，這些業務來自表現不佳的業務。

And so that gets us now to an end market portfolio that's quite improved. So when you look at stable markets, we think about 45% of our revenue is in what we call stable as like medical, personal care, consumables, animal nutrition, cigarettes, water treatment, et cetera.

這樣一來，我們的終端市場組合就得到了顯著改善。就穩定市場而言，我們認為約有45%的收入來自所謂的穩定市場，例如醫療、個人照護、消費品、動物營養、香菸、水處理等等。

Then you got about 20% in transportation and energy, which actually has upside going into this year and next. And then you get to B&C and consumer durables where we have sort of this sort of market demand sensitivity and risk. And about half of that is durables, right? So we're talking about 15% of the total corporate revenue.

然後，運輸和能源板塊的比例約為20%，這實際上在今年和明年都有上漲空間。接下來是商業和消費品板塊以及耐用消費品板塊，這些板塊的市場需求敏感度和風險都比較高。其中大約一半是耐用消費品，對吧？所以我們說的是企業總收入的15%。

And that is a place where it's predominantly 2 places where we go into consumer durables, mostly specialty plastics. That's our Tritan that would be going into a Cuisinart or a Ninja Blender or any of those sort of typical appliances that you would think about as well as electronics, where we have some of our cellulosics. So it's high-value business, but it's also a place where we have tremendous innovation, creating our own growth, especially as we go into next year with all the new content, the recycled content that we're adding.

我們主要涉足耐用消費品領域，主要是特種塑膠。 Tritan 塑膠主要應用於 Cuisinart 或 Ninja 攪拌機，或任何你能想到的典型家用電器；此外，我們也在電子產品領域使用部分纖維素塑膠。所以，這既是高價值業務，也是我們擁有巨大創新能力、創造自身成長潛力的領域，尤其是在我們進入明年，新增材料和再生材料不斷湧現的背景下。

So you've got to sort of -- for sure, we're seeing demand come off in those markets. As you can hear, Walmart, Target, et cetera, are destocking. But I already hit that the demand was well in excess of our capabilities, so some of that's actually not lost volume in the forecast. It's just the backlogs going away, if you will. But there will be some moderation in that business.

所以你必須有點——當然，我們看到這些市場的需求正在下降。正如你所聽到的，沃爾瑪、塔吉特等等都在去庫存。但我已經提到，需求遠遠超出了我們的能力，所以其中一部分實際上並沒有在預測中造成銷售損失。如果你願意的話，這只是積壓訂單的減少。但這些業務的成長會有所放緩。

And then there's some of it in the Coatings business, where we have coatings that go into all those different types of products as well, and we'll see some softness in that business. And so that's where we see some sensitivity. B&C also has some risk to it.

塗料業務也存在一些問題，我們的塗料也應用於各種不同的產品，我們會看到該業務出現一些疲軟。因此，我們認為該業務存在一些敏感性。 B&C 也面臨一些風險。

I think another important thing to keep in mind about what happens in the back half of this year isn't just about primary demand or innovation and how you offset it, but it's also this question around how much destocking is going to occur. And we don't think that there is going to be the same kind of bullwhip would normally have going into a recession because supply chain constraints have really limited how much inventory could be built through the chain, getting to the retailer, especially in markets like auto, where clearly, they have no inventory at the retail at the dealer level. And B&C's also had its own challenges.

我認為，關於今年下半年的情況，另一個需要牢記的重要事項不僅僅是主要需求或創新以及如何抵消其影響，還包括去庫存的規模問題。我們認為，不會出現經濟衰退時期通常會出現的那種“牛鞭效應”，因為供應鏈的限制確實限制了透過供應鏈向零售商積累庫存的能力，尤其是在汽車等市場，零售商和經銷商層面顯然沒有庫存。 B&C's 也面臨自身的挑戰。

And as I said, you've got markets rebuilding inventory like medical and aviation as well as having upside growth. And then you're back to historical question. So when we put it all together, there's certainly some demand risk and uncertainty.

正如我所說，醫療和航空等市場正在重建庫存，並且具有上行成長潛力。然後你又回到歷史問題了。所以，當我們把所有這些因素綜合起來看，肯定會存在一些需求風險和不確定性。

We're trying to factor that into our outlook. And we're really just trying to focus on what we control, continue to drive innovation, keep driving the pricing on specialties, but be conscious about maintaining a good competitive position while you do that. And that will certainly improve spreads to last year and give us a tailwind for next year and manage our costs as always and stay focused on circular platforms and how we return cash to shareholders.

我們正在努力將這一點納入我們的展望中。我們實際上只是努力專注於我們掌控的領域，繼續推動創新，並持續推動特種化學品的定價，但同時，我們也要注意保持良好的競爭地位。這肯定會改善去年的利差，並為明年帶來助力，讓我們能夠一如既往地管理成本，並繼續專注於循環平台以及如何向股東返還現金。

Great. And then I have a quick question on cash flow, in the first half was down significantly. Looking at some of your competitors that reported last night or even earlier in the week, many of them had flat to up operating cash flow. Can you talk about your weaker free cash -- or operating cash flow? And is it maybe due to some seasonality like ag and you have big ag end market exposure, maybe that comes back in second half? Can you just, either you or Willie can go through that?

好的。然後我有一個關於現金流的快速問題，上半年現金流大幅下降。看看你們昨晚甚至本週早些時候公佈的一些競爭對手，其中許多公司的營運現金流持平或上升。您能談談你們自由現金流（或經營現金流）較弱的原因嗎？這是否可能是由於季節性因素，例如農業，而且你們在農業終端市場佔有較大的份額，這種情況可能會在下半年恢復？您或 Willie 能不能談談這個問題？

P.J., I'm happy to go through that. Obviously, as we think about the situation that we're in with the highest inflation in 40 years and actually that gained momentum. So as we looked at the beginning of the year, versus where we are now, the raw materials and energy that we are seeing is about $0.5 billion higher. And obviously, that $0.5 billion translates here in the near term into an impact on working capital.

P.J.，我很樂意討論這個問題。顯然，考慮到我們正處於40年來最高的通膨形勢，而且通膨勢頭還在持續。因此，我們回顧年初的情況，與現在相比，原物料和能源價格上漲了約5億美元。顯然，這5億美元在短期內會對營運資金產生影響。

So you're seeing about $100 million on a year-over-year basis, negative impact of higher working capital consumption through the first 6 months. Additionally, the payout of the variable comp from last year. You can see that on the cash flow is about $140 million.

因此，您會看到，與去年同期相比，前六個月營運資本消耗增加的負面影響約為1億美元。此外，還有去年浮動薪資的支出。您可以看到，這部分現金流約為1.4億美元。

We're taking actions on our cash conversion cycle, whether it's inventory managing our receivable programs as well as looking at and continuing to look at our terms. As we look into the back half and traditionally at Eastman, we have been more back half loaded on operating cash flow from a seasonality standpoint.

我們正在採取措施改善現金週轉週期，包括管理應收帳款項目的庫存，以及持續關注和審視我們的條款。回顧下半年，伊士曼的傳統做法是，從季節性角度來看，下半年的營運現金流負荷更大。

And you can look at over the last 5 to 6 years when we generated the robust operating cash flow of $1.5 billion or $1.6 billion. Typically, that has about $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion of operating cash in the back half. So we have headwinds in this environment, and they acknowledge those, but we're still focused on delivering that approximately $1.5 billion even in the face of that.

回顧過去五、六年，我們創造了15億到16億美元的強勁營運現金流。通常情況下，下半年的營運現金流約為11億到12億美元。因此，在目前的環境下，我們面臨一些阻力，他們也承認這一點，但即使如此，我們仍然專注於實現約15億美元的營運現金流。

We will now take our next question from Matthew DeYoe from Bank of America.

我們現在將回答美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe 提出的下一個問題。

Do you have any patents or competitive advantages beyond just like the first mover advantage that would protect you from an entrant in textiles over time? I'm thinking maybe you have a competitor in tow?

除了先發優勢之外，你們還有什麼專利或競爭優勢可以保護你們免受紡織業其他競爭對手的衝擊？我想你們可能還有競爭對手？

So we don't have a lot of specific patents on the textile side. We have a significant market position advantage where we are the vast majority of the market when it comes to textile filament, which is different technology than making a tow fiber. And so -- and there's a pretty high capital intensity with that business. So the position we have is pretty solid in developing and producing that product, but we don't have any patents on it.

所以，我們在紡織方面沒有太多具體的專利。我們擁有顯著的市場優勢，在紡織長絲領域，我們佔據了絕大多數市場份額，這與生產絲束纖維的技術不同。而且，這項業務的資本密集度相當高。因此，我們在開發和生產該產品方面的地位相當穩固，但我們沒有任何專利。

You can -- in the staple side of things where you can use the tow assets, that's a more competitive market. But again, there's a big advantage we have in the sort of market relationships that we currently have.

在主食方面，你可以利用拖曳資產，這是一個競爭更激烈的市場。但同樣，我們目前的市場關係也有很大優勢。

And Mark, if I may add that other highlight thatI would add is we produce textiles at our Kingsport, Tennessee site, which is highly integrated. And we have the lowest cost position from producing flake at this site in the world. So as you think about the integration and the power of our acetyl streams and cellulosics differentiate us versus our competitors.

馬克，我想補充另一個亮點，那就是我們在田納西州金斯波特的工廠生產紡織品，該工廠高度整合。而且，我們在這個工廠生產薄片的成本是全球最低的。所以，考慮到我們的整合度以及乙醯基流和纖維素纖維的強大性能，我們與競爭對手相比脫穎而出。

And one of the great things about this business is the size of the market relative to our capacity or anyone else who wants to join in, is just far greater than what we can make. So we view it as a great business for us. And if there's some amount of competition, there's plenty of room.

這個行業的一大優勢在於，相對於我們或其他想加入的人來說，市場規模都遠遠超出了我們的能力。所以我們認為這對我們來說是一項很棒的業務。如果存在一定程度的競爭，就有足夠的發展空間。

Understood. And this one might be a little long, so I apologize. But looking at animal nutrition and crop protection right, it did something like $330 million, $350 million in sales in '15 and '16 and then went all the way up to the mid-500s. And as of the end of last year, I guess, we were back in the mid-330 level.

明白了。這個可能有點長，抱歉。不過，就動物營養和作物保護業務而言，2015年和2016年的銷售額大概在3.3億美元到3.5億美元之間，之後一路飆升至500多億美元。到去年年底，我們大概又回到了330多億美元的水準。

Is this business COVID-sensitive? And why, if it is? And then it seems like it's doing pretty well right now. So is that mid-$500 in revenue number kind of the right target in the medium term again?

這家公司受疫情影響嗎？如果是，為什麼？而且目前看起來業績還不錯。那麼，500美元左右的收入目標在中期是否合適？

So what I can tell you about the animal nutrition business is it is growing really well. It's very stable and benefited obviously a bit of some more foods consumption, I guess, you could argue through COVID, but you had more home consumption, less restaurants, so those sort of net each other out. So it's just -- from an end market point of view, it's pretty steady.

關於動物營養業務，我可以告訴你的是，它成長得非常好。它非常穩定，而且顯然受益於一些食品消費的增加，我想，你可以說是因為新冠疫情，但家庭消費增加了，餐館消費減少了，所以這些因素互相抵消了。所以，從終端市場的角度來看，它相當穩定。

Now prices go up and down that impact some of the revenue story just based on the market dynamics that we've been going through in many products. And the profitability of this business has materially improved. The key that we're doing in this business is focusing on how we value up the business, right?

現在價格漲跌會對收入產生一定影響，這只是基於我們在許多產品上經歷的市場動態。這項業務的獲利能力已經大幅提升。我們在這個業務上所做的關鍵在於如何提升業務價值，對嗎？

So we have one of the broadest organic asset portfolios to replace antibiotics and nutrition, which is driving our growth. But historically, we've mostly just sold them as individual acids, organic acids. And as we have been moving forward in creating more formulated solutions, that combine the acids and other elements of product performance together, you step up the value 2 to 4x as much as what we get currently today.

因此，我們擁有最廣泛的有機資產組合之一，可以取代抗生素和營養品，這推動了我們的成長。但從歷史上看，我們大多只是將它們作為單獨的酸（有機酸）出售。隨著我們不斷開發更多配方解決方案，將酸和其他產品性能要素結合在一起，我們的價值將提升到目前的2到4倍。

And this 3F acquisition we did last year also brought in a lot of capability to sort of not just grow their business, but really value up our portfolio and the synergies on that have been fantastic. So all that has really drive -- driven a lot of improvement in the performance of this business. So it's pretty steady.

我們去年收購3F也帶來了巨大的潛力，不僅促進了他們的業務成長，也提升了我們投資組合的價值，由此產生的綜效非常顯著。所有這些都真正推動了我們業務業績的大幅提升。所以，目前來看，業績表現相當穩定。

I'll let Willie sort of try and respond to the numbers that you're quoting.

我會讓威利試著回應你所引用的數字。

Well, what I would say, Matt, is -- sorry, is as I look at the last couple of years, it's been around $300 million, and then there's a pretty good jump up here in 2022, and that is related to the 3F acquisition in addition to overall growth, as Mark just referenced.

嗯，馬特，我想說的是——抱歉，回顧過去幾年，這個數字一直在 3 億美元左右，然後在 2022 年出現了相當大的增長，這與 3F 收購以及整體增長有關，正如馬克剛才提到的。

So not seeing the big spike that you're talking about in a year, and then it coming back, it's more been steady, at least over the last several years.

因此，在一年內不會出現您所說的大幅上漲，然後又會回落，至少在過去幾年中，它一直比較穩定。

Let's make the next question the last one, please.

請將下一個問題作為最後一個問題。

We will now take our last question from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

我們現在來回答 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander 提出的最後一個問題。

It's Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. I was just thinking about energy curtailment in Europe, and I don't know if I missed this, but I was just wondering if you're thinking about how that might affect you guys towards the winter or late this year and early next year?

我是丹·里佐，代替勞倫斯發言。我剛才在想歐洲的能源削減問題，不知道我有沒有註意到，我想知道你們是否考慮過這會對今年冬天或今年年底和明年年初的你們造成什麼影響？

So like everyone, we're working hard on making sure we've got supply positions in place to manage any sort of risk on the curtailment side and are doing everything we can on that front.

因此，與所有人一樣，我們正在努力確保我們擁有適當的供應職位，以管理削減方面的任何風險，並在這方面盡我們所能。

Our exposure in Europe has been reduced pretty significantly. So the largest plants we had in Europe were in the adhesives and tires business, which we have recently divested. So the 2 businesses that really have exposure to this in a meaningful way is our amines plant in Belgium and our interlayers plant in Belgium.

我們在歐洲的業務已大幅減少。我們在歐洲最大的工廠是黏合劑和輪胎業務，但我們最近已將其剝離。因此，真正與歐洲業務密切相關的兩家公司是位於比利時的胺工廠和夾層工廠。

Interlayers is more electricity-driven than natural gas-driven in what it's sort of exposed to. But that cost exposure is there. I mean the energy prices are already incredibly high and embedded in our sort of outlook and forecasting. But from a curtailment point of view, we're doing everything we can to minimize that risk.

Interlayers 的能源驅動力大於天然氣驅動力。但成本風險是存在的。我的意思是，能源價格已經高得驚人，並且已經深深地印刻在我們的前景和預測中。但從限電的角度來看，我們正在盡最大努力將這種風險降至最低。

And what about your customers, I mean, have they said anything?

那麼你的客戶怎麼樣呢？他們說了什麼嗎？

I think every customer around Europe is doing the same thing. There's a lot of uncertainty. I don't think anyone really knows what's going to happen, right? The governments across Europe are working hard on trying to come up with a plan. They realize it's shutting down industrial facilities that don't shut down very well or come back up very well. It's not a great idea because it creates a lot of economic and job risk and safety risk in some cases.

我認為歐洲各地的所有客戶都在做同樣的事情。存在很多不確定性。我想沒有人真正知道會發生什麼，對吧？歐洲各國政府正在努力製定計畫。他們意識到，關閉那些關閉得不好或恢復得不好的工業設施。這不是一個好主意，因為它會造成很大的經濟和就業風險，在某些情況下甚至會帶來安全風險。

And so I think they're trying to be very thoughtful about how they're going to manage this problem going into the winter and then it's anyone's guess on what Putin will do between now and winter. So we're all working to manage that issue together.

所以我認為他們正在認真思考如何在冬季應對這個問題，至於普丁從現在到冬季會做什麼，誰也說不準。所以，我們都在共同努力解決這個問題。

Thanks again, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Eastman. And I hope that you have a great day.

再次感謝各位今天的參與。感謝您對伊士曼的關注。祝大家有個愉快的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的通話到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以掛斷電話了。