伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the third quarter 2021 Eastman Chemical conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman's website, www.eastman.com. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化學 2021 年第三季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。這場電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。現在我將電話轉給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Mary, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board, Chair and CEO; William McLain, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝你，瑪麗，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有董事會、董事長兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、高級副總裁兼首席財務官威廉·麥克萊恩 (William McLain) 和投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Yesterday after market closed, we posted our third quarter 2021 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, as well as our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website, www.eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，我們在我們網站 www.eastman.com 的投資者部分發布了 2021 年第三季財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件，以及我們的幻燈片和相關的準備好的評論。

Now before we begin, I'll cover two items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our third quarter 2021 financial results news release, during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-Q filed for second quarter 2021 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for third quarter 2021.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在我們 2021 年第三季度財務業績新聞稿、本次電話會議、前面的幻燈片和準備好的評論以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交給 2021 年第二季度的 10-Q 表和即將提交給 2021 年第三季度的 10-Q 表。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the third quarter 2021 financial results news release.

其次，本簡報中提到的收益不包括某些非核心和不尋常的項目。2021 年第三季財務業績新聞稿中提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳以及其他相關揭露，包括排除和調整項目的描述。

As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we will now go straight into Q&A. Mary, please let's start with our first question.

由於我們昨晚已將幻燈片和隨附的準備好的發言稿發佈在我們的網站上，因此我們現在將直接進入問答環節。瑪麗，請讓我們從第一個問題開始。

We'll now take our first question from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

我們現在來回答摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews 提出的第一個問題。

And thank you for the updated outlook on 2022. And to that effect, if I could just ask you, Mark, what are you assuming for auto production in 2022 versus 2021?

感謝您對 2022 年的最新展望。為此，我可以問你一下，馬克，你對 2022 年汽車產量與 2021 年相比有何預期？

And what we're assuming is that the auto production situation remains pretty challenged as it has been in the back half of this year as we go into next year. But things get sort of modestly better through the year, especially in the back half, but there's no sort of heroic assumptions about auto recovery next year versus this year in the forecast. So depending on everyone's view, you can adjust up or down relative to that assumption.

我們假設，進入明年，汽車生產情況將依然像今年下半年一樣面臨相當大的挑戰。但今年的情況會略有好轉，尤其是下半年，但預測中並沒有對明年汽車業復甦做出任何大膽的假設。因此，根據每個人的觀點，您可以根據該假設進行向上或向下調整。

Okay. And if we just look at the third quarter, can you sort of help us bridge sort of how the specialty portfolio volume would have performed if you ex out the impact from auto? So what the other businesses are doing on an underlying rate?

好的。如果我們只看第三季度，您能否幫助我們了解一下，如果排除汽車產業的影響，專業投資組合量的表現會如何？那麼其他企業在基本利率方面表現如何？

Go ahead, Willie.

繼續吧，威利。

Yes, Vincent. What I would highlight, first of all, is, again, we have mix included in that for the quarter, specifically in our Advanced Materials, which is more exposed to OEM. And if you back that out, volumes would have actually been down because we had very favorable mix in the quarter as we think about year-over-year performance, especially. But sequentially, it was definitely down in the premium areas.

是的，文森。首先，我要強調的是，本季我們已將多種產品納入其中，特別是我們的先進材料，這些材料更受 OEM 的影響。如果你回過頭來看，銷量實際上會下降，因為考慮到同比表現，我們本季的產品組合非常有利。但按順序來看，高端領域的銷售肯定是下降的。

Yes. If you think about it, the first half of the year, mix was incredibly strong and driving a lot of variable margin growth and margin improvement. And there was a mix shift a bit in the third quarter. It wasn't just autos. It was also outbound logistics constraints center, especially plastics business and getting high-value products like Tritan to the market.

是的。如果你仔細想想，你會發現今年上半年的產品組合非常強勁，推動了可變利潤率的大幅成長和利潤率的提高。第三季的情況略有轉變。不僅僅是汽車。它也是出站物流約束中心，尤其是塑膠業務和將 Tritan 等高價值產品推向市場。

Demand is incredibly strong out there, but logistics, as you all know, are also [challenging]. So the earnings could have been considerably better with those two factors, if they were a bit better.

那裡的需求非常強勁，但眾所周知，物流也面臨挑戰。因此，如果這兩個因素能夠好一些，那麼收益可能會好得多。

And we can now take our next question from David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank.

現在我們可以回答德意志銀行的 David Begleiter 提出的下一個問題。

And Mark, again, thank you for the '22 guidance. On that guidance, can you just walk through the segments and what -- how you expect them to perform in '22 versus '21?

馬克，再次感謝你對 22 年的指導。根據該指導，您能否簡單介紹一下各個部分以及您預計它們在 22 年和 21 年的表現如何？

Sure. So -- and here [for me], David. When you think about the overall segments, obviously, when you start with the specialty businesses, as we've noted here, there's just tremendous growth that we see possible on a number of factors, right? We've got volume and mix that should be a significant driver with the economy, to some degree, growing with the markets in it.

當然。所以——對我來說，這是大衛。當您考慮整體細分市場時，顯然，當您從專業業務開始時，正如我們在這裡指出的那樣，我們看到許多因素都可能帶來巨大的成長，對嗎？我們的產量和產品組合應該能夠成為經濟的重要推動力，在某種程度上，能夠隨著市場的成長而成長。

And there's also a lot of pent-up demand out there to drive added additional growth versus GDP as consumers fulfill desires that they can't get due to supply chain constraints and we're restocking inventory, which has not at all happened yet in this year. So that's all quite positive.

而且，由於消費者滿足了由於供應鏈限製而無法得到的慾望，並且我們正在補充庫存，因此還有大量被壓抑的需求可以推動相對於 GDP 的額外增長，而這在今年還沒有發生過。這一切都非常積極。

And when you think about that, especially the pent-up demand part, I think that's more significant in the AM segment. So we've given you a breakdown of AM being about 70% of that variable margin improvement versus AFP. The innovation is also incredibly strong, especially in AM, where we're going to continue to outperform the underlying markets in a significant way. You've seen this in this year.

當你考慮到這一點時，特別是被壓抑的需求部分，我認為這在 AM 領域更為重要。因此，我們為您提供了 AM 的細目分類，相對於 AFP，AM 佔可變利潤改善的 70% 左右。創新也非常強勁，特別是在 AM 領域，我們將繼續大幅超越基礎市場。今年你已經看到了這一點。

You saw it last year in AM. You've seen it for the last decade. And the circular offerings are also accelerating a lot of growth for us in the SP business. You've seen $600 million in new business revenue from innovation. So that's a good momentum that we take into next year.

您去年在 AM 中看到過它。過去十年你已經看到了它。循環發行也加速了我們的 SP 業務的成長。您已經看到創新帶來了 6 億美元的新業務收入。這是我們明年要保持的良好勢頭。

So again, those are a bit more biased towards the AM as AFP businesses also getting traction. And then market segment strategies. We continue to sort of focus on the markets that are growing, whether it's luxury EVs, water treatment, care chemicals, where we pick up a lot of just natural market growth.

因此，由於 AFP 業務也獲得了發展動力，因此這些對 AM 的偏差程度有所增加。然後是市場區隔策略。我們繼續關注那些正在成長的市場，無論是豪華電動車、水處理或護理化學品，我們都獲得了許多自然的市場成長。

And importantly, keep in mind, a lot of the growth I just described, all of its high-value mix, both within the segment and certainly at the corporate level. So there's a lot of leverage to have AM have a significant increase in earnings next year when you think about those elements. And that's also true for AFP to have good solid growth.

重要的是，請記住，我剛剛描述的許多成長，都是高價值組合，無論是在細分市場內，還是在公司層面。因此，如果考慮到這些因素，AM 明年的獲利將有很大的提升空間。這對於 AFP 實現良好穩健的成長也至關重要。

And then on the spread side, it's the same thing. You've got really headwinds obviously this year and prices catching up to raws through the year.

然後在傳播方面，情況也是一樣的。顯然，今年確實面臨阻力，而且價格全年都在追趕原料。

And there will be -- with the price actions we're taking through the fourth quarter and a lot of effective price increases on January 1 in businesses, you're going to see a pretty big step-up in earnings there from spreads getting better as long as you believe raw materials are going to plateau relative to the back half of this year and then trend off in the back half of next year, which is sort of our underlying assumption.

而且，隨著我們在第四季度採取的價格行動以及 1 月 1 日企業價格的大幅上漲，只要您相信原材料價格相對於今年下半年將趨於平穩，然後在明年下半年呈現趨勢，您就會看到利潤因利差改善而大幅增長，這是我們的基本假設。

So then you pick up a pretty significant spread tailwind. It's the same thing. AFP has done a better job of sort of keeping track with prices this year because they have a lot more cost pass-through contracts. Half of the price increase in the third quarter was CPTs and AFP. Whereas AM, the interlayers business, in particular, has a lot of annual price contracts.

這樣，您就會獲得相當顯著的順風。這是同樣的事情。由於簽訂了更多的成本轉嫁合同，AFP 今年在價格追蹤方面做得更好。第三季價格上漲的一半是CPT和AFP。而AM，尤其是中間膜業務，有許多年度價格合約。

So it takes a while to get those prices moving up. So again, that sort of supports that 70-30 split on the spread side, too.

因此，這些價格上漲需要一段時間。所以，這再次證明，價差方面 70-30 的分配比例也是合理的。

So those businesses are both going to deliver considerable growth in earnings in AM as well as when you look at AFP on a recasted basis, minus the divestitures. So that's a lot of the growth there. Fibers, I think, will also be renegotiating, putting prices in on probably more than half of their revenue come January 1. And so earnings will improve there.

因此，當您以重鑄基礎（減去資產剝離）來看 AFP 時，這些業務都將在 AM 中實現可觀的收益成長。所以那裡有很大的成長。我認為，纖維企業也將重新進行談判，從 1 月 1 日起對其一半以上的收入進行定價。因此，他們的獲利將會提高。

And then, of course, in CI, you've got normalization. That's going to happen in that business, but it's going to be offset by volume growth that will be pretty substantial next year relative to this year in ag, plasticizers and some other growth opportunities that we have as well as less shutdown.

然後，當然，在 CI 中，您就得到了規範化。這種情況將發生在該業務中，但它將被銷量增長所抵消，相對於今年而言，明年農業、增塑劑和我們擁有的其他一些增長機會的銷量增長將相當可觀，而且停產也會減少。

So that all helps out. And of course, there's the cost tailwinds that we've given to you that's spread across all of these segments that give them sort of added growth. So that's sort of how it balances out, David.

這一切都有幫助。當然，我們為您提供的成本順風遍及所有這些領域，為它們帶來額外的成長。這就是平衡的方式，大衛。

Perfect. And just on buybacks, Mark. Could buybacks approach $1 billion next year?

完美的。馬克，就回購而言。明年的回購金額能達到 10 億美元嗎？

Willie, you want to take that one?

威利，你想拿那個嗎？

David, thanks for the question. And maybe a little bit. As we think about every year, we're focused on growing free cash flow to that $1 billion level. As we go into '22, obviously, we'll have the impact of the divested EBITDA. But we believe fundamentally, with the working capital abating, given the raw material assumptions that Mark just outlined, right now, year-to-date, we've had roughly $450 million of inflationary pressures on working capital.

大衛，謝謝你的提問。或許有一點。我們每年都致力於將自由現金流增加到 10 億美元的水平。當我們進入 22 年時，顯然我們會受到剝離 EBITDA 的影響。但我們從根本上相信，隨著營運資本的減少，考慮到馬克剛才概述的原材料假設，今年迄今為止，我們的營運資本面臨約 4.5 億美元的通膨壓力。

We see that reverting also as we continue to invest in circular and growth in our capacity assets. Net-net, we think, excluding the dividend, debt being back, we'll have $600 million of free cash flow. Then if you take proceeds from our divestitures on top of that, it definitely, is possible.

隨著我們繼續投資循環經濟和產能資產的成長，我們也看到了這種回歸。我們認為，扣除股息和債務後，我們將擁有 6 億美元的自由現金流。那麼如果你在此基礎上再從我們的資產剝離中獲得收益，那絕對是可能的。

We can now take our next question from Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners.

現在我們可以回答 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, you announced a nice deal to divest the adhesives business, and of course, the Crystex deal is still pending. I was wondering, if you could just walk us through, at a high level, what your thoughts are on capital redeployment and just the portfolio composition moving forward. Does this bring the company to a reasonably steady state in 2022? Or is there more work to do in terms of the mix in the portfolio over the next couple of years?

馬克，你宣布了一項剝離粘合劑業務的不錯的交易，當然，Crystex 交易仍懸而未決。我想知道，您是否可以從宏觀角度向我們介紹一下，您對資本重新部署以及未來投資組合構成的看法。這是否會使公司在 2022 年達到相當穩定的狀態？或者未來幾年在投資組合組合方面還有更多工作要做？

Yes. So we certainly like the portfolio we now have. We think that AM, AFP businesses are very well-positioned to deliver strong growth and earnings and increasingly improving margins. And the Fibers and the olefins part or the CI part of the business is an integral part of our integration, scale, cash flow, et cetera.

是的。所以我們當然喜歡我們現在擁有的投資組合。我們認為 AM、AFP 業務完全有能力實現強勁成長和獲利，並持續提高利潤率。纖維和烯烴部分或CI業務部分是我們整合、規模、現金流量等不可或缺的一部分。

So we like the portfolio as it's configured right now as we look at deploying capital to your question, Kevin, on delivering more growth from the total company.

因此，我們喜歡現在配置的投資組合，因為我們正在考慮部署資本來回答您的問題，凱文，以實現整個公司的更多成長。

When it comes to capital deployment, obviously, our free cash flow remains incredibly strong. And our balance sheet now is also strong, with delevering being in our rearview mirror. So as we look forward, I think we should think about how we deploy capital on sort of multiple fronts.

當談到資本配置時，顯然我們的自由現金流仍然非常強勁。我們的資產負債表目前也很強勁，去槓桿已初見成效。因此，展望未來，我認為我們應該考慮如何在多個方面部署資本。

First, you should expect CapEx to increase a bit next year as we have the combination of specialty growth and the first methanolysis plant that we're building here in Kingsport. So normal CapEx growth to support our specialty strategy is in that $500 million to $600 million range. And then, of course, you've got a good portion of that $250 million of the Kingsport plant being spent next year.

首先，由於我們結合了專業成長和在金斯波特建造的第一個甲醇分解工廠，您應該預計明年的資本支出將會增加。因此，支持我們專業策略的正常資本支出成長在 5 億至 6 億美元之間。當然，金斯波特工廠的 2.5 億美元投資中很大一部分將於明年投入使用。

Now we're balancing some of the specialty CapEx between next year and pushing some of it to '23 to keep this sort of imbalance across the 2 years, but CapEx will be a bit higher for that.

現在，我們正在平衡明年的一些專業資本支出，並將其中一部分推遲到 23 年，以保持兩年內的這種不平衡，但資本支出會因此略高一些。

Then after that, you look at how am I going to deploy my balance sheet and cash, and there's really sort of four buckets. The first is the potential to continue investing in the circular economy. We're pursuing multiple projects beyond this first plant.

然後，你要考慮如何部署我的資產負債表和現金，實際上有四種情況。首先是持續投資循環經濟的潛力。除了第一家工廠之外，我們還在進行多個專案。

If we can achieve the conditions that we've talked about in the past about those being very attractive investments and very stable sources of earnings, those projects could be very accretive to earnings and ROIC. They're very attractive from a return point of view. And that could be a use of where we go with our balance sheet.

如果我們能夠實現過去談到的那些條件，即那些非常有吸引力的投資和非常穩定的盈利來源，那麼這些項目可能會大大增加盈利和投資回報率。從回報的角度來看，它們非常有吸引力。這可能是我們資產負債表的一個用途。

The second, of course, is bolt-on M&A where we'd like to ramp up that level from where we've been in the last couple of years. This is returning cash to shareholders, which I think will be significant as we move forward. And, of course, a growing dividend.

第二，當然是附加併購，我們希望在過去幾年的基礎上進一步提升這一水平。這是向股東返還現金，我認為這對我們未來的發展具有重要意義。當然，股息也在不斷成長。

So it will be a balance of capital deployment, I think, like we've always had across these areas. There's a lot of attractive investment opportunities for us right now. And so we're really excited about how we can sort of deploy capital and create growth for our shareholders.

因此，我認為這將是一種資本配置的平衡，就像我們在這些領域一直以來所做的那樣。目前我們面臨許多有吸引力的投資機會。因此，我們對如何部署資本並為股東創造成長感到非常興奮。

And we can now take our next question from Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

現在我們可以回答 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch 提出的下一個問題。

Congrats on the divestitures. And just a follow-up, Mark, you did talk about uses of cash and possible bolt-on M&As. What are the current valuation levels like? And what does your current pipeline look in that regard?

祝賀資產剝離。馬克，再問一下，你確實談到了現金的用途以及可能的附加併購。目前的估值水準如何？在這方面，您目前的管道是什麼樣的？

Yes. So the bolt-on M&A pipeline, there's a number of ideas that we have that are -- can be attractive in Advanced Materials and AFP, as we try and build out our additive portfolio in AFP and accelerate our access to additional markets in Advanced Materials, especially in specialty plastics.

是的。因此，對於附加式併購管道，我們有很多想法——在先進材料和 AFP 領域很有吸引力，因為我們試圖在 AFP 領域建立我們的添加劑產品組合，並加速我們進入先進材料領域其他市場，特別是特種塑膠領域。

But as you've noted, Frank, you have to be careful. There's a lot of buy-side interest in pursuing M&A right now as everyone has improved balance sheet and cash. So we're going to be disciplined as always. We're proud of the fact that we don't overpay for assets, whether it's at the large ones we've done in the past or the bolt-ons we're focusing on now.

但是正如你所說，弗蘭克，你必須小心。由於每家公司的資產負債表和現金都得到了改善，因此買方目前對進行併購表現出很大的興趣。因此我們將一如既往地嚴守紀律。我們為自己沒有為資產支付過高的價格而感到自豪，無論是我們過去進行的大型資產收購，還是我們現在關注的附加資產收購。

And so we'll see. There may be some constraints because we're just not going to run around and overpay.

我們將拭目以待。可能會有一些限制，因為我們不想到處跑並且多付錢。

Got you. Got you. And if I could come back to the automotive piece. You referenced that you are doing better than you had back in 2018. And obviously, with builds being off, where do you stand in the interplay between your sales into the automotive space versus where the build rate is today? And how should investors think about that interplay going into next year?

明白了。明白了。如果我可以回到汽車話題上來。您提到，您現在的表現比 2018 年好。顯然，由於生產量下降，您在汽車領域的銷售與當前的生產力之間的相互作用如何？那麼投資者該如何看待明年的這種交互作用呢？

So in Advanced Materials, our OEM exposure is bigger than AFP. That's another one of the differences, AFPs. Their automotive exposure is about half refinish and half OEMs. So they're a lot more balanced in the OEM production drama as refinished is just continuing to improve.

因此，在先進材料領域，我們的 OEM 曝光度比 AFP 更大。這是另一個不同之處，AFP。他們的汽車曝光度大約一半是汽車修補，一半是汽車原始設備製造商。因此，由於重新加工正在不斷改進，因此他們在 OEM 生產方面更加平衡。

But on the OEM side, the supply chain is really short between OEM production and the production of our interlayers. So that actually happens pretty quickly. So as they're adjusting their production rates weekly, we're adjusting right there with them. So we're realizing that in a pretty quick fashion.

但在 OEM 方面，OEM 生產和我們的中間層生產之間的供應鏈確實很短。所以這其實發生得相當快。因此，當他們每週調整生產力時，我們也會隨之進行調整。所以我們很快就意識到了這一點。

The performance films business has actually done really well through the third quarter because companies -- the dealers -- the auto dealers are out there trying to upgrade the value they were getting on each car. And so selling our paint protection films, window films was a nice adder to the few cars that they have to sell.

性能膜業務在第三季度實際上表現得非常好，因為公司——經銷商——汽車經銷商都在努力提升每輛汽車的價值。因此，銷售我們的漆面保護膜和車窗膜對於他們要銷售的少量汽車來說是一個很好的補充。

But even that, seem start to catch up to us on what they have to sell right now.

但即便如此，他們現在似乎開始追趕我們銷售的產品了。

So we're feeling a bit of that as we go into the third -- the fourth quarter.

所以當我們進入第三季和第四季時，我們感受到了一點這種感覺。

But I think that as they have more cars to sell or produce more cars, you're going to see that pickup in sales happen pretty quickly for us because there's really no inventory in the channel between us and the primary market. So that, I think, is good news, as supply chains at some point are going to start getting back in control and production will be there.

但我認為，隨著他們有更多的汽車可供銷售或生產更多的汽車，你會看到我們的銷售回升相當快，因為我​​們和主要市場之間的通路實際上沒有庫存。所以我認為這是個好消息，因為供應鏈在某個時候會開始恢復控制，生產也會恢復。

Clearly, end market demand is quite strong. So there's plenty of pent-up demand of people who want to buy cars. When you look at just how much they're paying for used cars right now, they're clearly -- there's a lot of demand out there. So I think, if we have a recovery, it will be pretty fast. And it will be a little bit slower in AFP because that supply chain is [longer].

顯然，終端市場需求相當強勁。因此，想要購買汽車的人還有很多被壓抑的需求。當你看到他們現在為二手車支付多少錢時，顯然——市場需求很大。所以我認為，如果我們能夠復甦，那將會非常快。而 AFP 的速度會稍微慢一些，因為供應鏈較長。

Fermium is going do its part to increase car sales, just so you know. And looking forward to December 7.

正如你們所知，Fermium 將盡其所能提高汽車銷售量。並期待 12 月 7 日的到來。

And we can now take our next question from Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets.

現在我們可以回答 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan 提出的下一個問題。

I just wanted to, I guess, talk about '22 initially or list your initial comments there. What are you expecting, on the last question, as far as global auto production? And it appears to us that many companies in your position are actually assuming rates below the IHS recovery. So maybe you can comment on that first.

我只是想先談論 22 或列出您的初步評論。關於最後一個問題，您對全球汽車產量有何預期？在我們看來，許多與您處境相同的公司實際上都假設利率低於 IHS 回收率。所以也許您可以先對此發表評論。

Yes. So on a 4Q basis, I think our view is below IHS. And I think IHS is from what I can tell, moderating their view downwards for the fourth quarter. So production, obviously, what we're assuming is similar to maybe a little bit better than the third quarter, but not any significant change to help in the quarter.

是的。因此，從第四季度來看，我認為我們的觀點低於 IHS。據我所知，我認為 IHS 正在下調第四季度的預期。因此，顯然，我們假設產量可能與第三季類似，甚至可能略好一些，但不會對本季產生任何重大影響。

When it comes to next year, let's be honest, it's anyone's guess, right? When the supply chain on components is going to improve and production is going to improve. I think, we are being cautious and not assuming much improvement in the first half of the year. But we do assume that eventually, these issues are going to get addressed and so there'll be some modest improvement in demand in the back half of the year. But our guidance is not based on some substantial improvement in auto demand.

說到明年，說實話，誰也說不準，對吧？當零件供應鏈得到改善並且生產得到改善時。我認為，我們持謹慎態度，不認為今年上半年會有太大改善。但我們確實認為，這些問題最終將得到解決，因此今年下半年需求將略有改善。但我們的指引並非基於汽車需求的實質改善。

And then, I just wanted to also ask about strategy, I guess, going forward. Following the sale of Crystex here, are there other properties within the portfolio that you think are noncore anymore?

然後，我想問未來的策略。在出售 Crystex 之後，您認為投資組合中是否還有其他資產不再是非核心資產？

No. Not at this time. So we're very happy with the AM and AFP portfolio. The two obvious questions that come up in the past is Fibers and olefins. On the Fibers front, I remind everyone that it is deeply integrated into our overall cellulosic biopolymer business. We have a lot of biopolymers, specialties we are selling off of the stream in Advanced Materials and AFP.

不。目前還不行。因此我們對 AM 和 AFP 產品組合非常滿意。過去出現的兩個明顯的問題是纖維和烯烴。在纖維方面，我提醒大家，它已深深融入我們的整體纖維素生物聚合物業務中。我們擁有大量生物聚合物和特殊產品，正在先進材料和 AFP 領域銷售。

And with the significant change in the world's view around waste plastic and climate, we just have tremendous growth opportunities in front of us in both AM and AFP, with that integrated stream.

隨著世界對廢塑膠和氣候的看法發生重大變化，透過整合流程，我們在 AM 和 AFP 領域都面臨著巨大的成長機會。

You're going to learn a lot more about that at Innovation Day where we're going to identify a bunch of new opportunities we're pursuing that can be quite substantial. And textiles growth in itself, in Fibers, has been actually quite strong. It's incredible how the textile growth had been 80% up year-over-year, obviously, on the challenged market that still tremendous growth, offsetting not just total market decline, but also that discontinued product.

在創新日上，您將了解更多有關這方面的信息，我們將在會上確定我們正在追求的一系列可能意義重大的新機遇。就纖維而言，紡織品本身的成長實際上相當強勁。令人難以置信的是，紡織品的成長率竟然比去年同期高出了 80%，顯然，在充滿挑戰的市場中，紡織品的成長率仍然巨大，不僅抵消了整個市場的下滑，也抵消了停產產品的下滑。

So that business as well is at the position now where textile growth will offset to market decline or better. And we're, in fact, demand exceeding our expectations, where we're having to pull forward conversion of tow assets to making textiles. So that business is on track and it generates a huge amount of cash flow that supports all the investments we're making in growth in AM and AFP.

因此，現在該業務也處於這樣的狀態：紡織品成長將抵消市場下滑，甚至更好。事實上，需求超出了我們的預期，我們不得不提前將拖曳資產轉換為紡織品製造。因此，該業務進展順利，並產生了大量現金流，支持了我們在 AM 和 AFP 成長方面所做的所有投資。

Olefins, it's a bit of a similar story where we're dramatically improving the quality of the earnings in that business. Obviously, it's doing really well. But we've been taking a lot of actions over the last 3 years to improve what is a new normal for this business, which is more likely probably around $300 million.

烯烴業務的情況有點類似，我們正在大幅提高該業務的獲利品質。顯然，它表現得非常好。但過去 3 年我們一直在採取許多措施來改善這個業務的新常態，這筆開支很可能在 3 億美元左右。

And there are things like closing the Singapore plant where we had a very disadvantaged raw material energy position. That's a big upgrade in the quality of that business with it closed. A lot of operational cost transformation work that we're doing across the company does flow into the big assets that flow into Chemical Intermediates.

還有一些事情，例如關閉新加坡工廠，因為我們在那裡的原材料能源地位非常不利。關閉該業務後，其品質將得到很大的提升。我們在整個公司範圍內開展的大量營運成本轉型工作確實流入了化學中間體中的大型資產。

The RGP investment is giving us flexibility to reduce ethylene when it's not attractive and make it when it is that it reduces sort of volatility around that. And we've got a new investment, we'll tell you about an Innovation Day for modest capital that will significantly improve our olefin production flexibility.

RGP 投資使我們能夠靈活地在乙烯不再具有吸引力時減少乙烯產量，並在乙烯能夠降低波動性時進行生產。我們獲得了一項新的投資，我們將向您介紹有關適度資本的創新日，這將顯著提高我們的烯烴生產靈活性。

And mix is getting better, right? The amines business inside that overall portfolio is great, growing and stable. And we have a lot of our businesses on cost pass-through contracts that give us a certain amount of stability, probably about 40% of revenue.

混合效果越來越好了，對吧？整個產品組合中的胺類業務表現優異、不斷成長且穩定。我們的許多業務都簽訂了成本轉嫁合同，這給我們帶來了一定的穩定性，大概佔收入的 40% 左右。

There's a lot of things in the olefins space we've done to improve it. We're obviously disciplined about our portfolio. But as you look at the significant growth opportunities we have in front of us and that balance sheet strength that we want to leverage, deploy and grow the company, the cash from both Fibers and olefins creates a lot of value. So when we look at the portfolio today for what we want to do now, this is the right portfolio to grow.

我們在烯烴領域做了很多事情來改進它。我們顯然對我們的投資組合非常嚴格。但是，當你看到我們面前的巨大成長機會以及我們想要利用、部署和發展公司的資產負債表實力時，來自纖維和烯烴的現金創造了巨大的價值。因此，當我們審視今天的投資組合併考慮我們現在想要做什麼時，這就是正確的成長投資組合。

The next question from P.J. Juvekar of Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 P.J. Juvekar。

Congrats on being named in the Fortune Magazine. I think, you're one of the few chemical companies. Also, you're creating this specialty brand with circular economy -- in the circular economic products like Titan, on one hand. And then you have to fight commoditizing businesses, on the other hand, like adhesives and tire additives.

恭喜您被《財星》雜誌提名。我認為，你們是少數幾家化學公司之一。此外，一方面，您正在利用循環經濟來打造這個特色品牌——例如 Titan 這樣的循環經濟產品。另一方面，你必須對抗商品化業務，例如黏合劑和輪胎添加劑。

And so like many other chemical companies, you have to constantly fight that battle between businesses commoditizing and then innovating. So given that you think you have the right portfolio, to move that portfolio solidly into specialties, would you look at making a big specialty acquisition? Or would you look at just sort of continuing more bolt-ons?

因此，與許多其他化學公司一樣，您必須不斷地在商業化和創新之間進行鬥爭。因此，鑑於您認為您擁有正確的投資組合，為了將該投資組合穩固地轉移到專業領域，您是否會考慮進行大規模的專業收購？或者您會考慮繼續增加附加功能？

It's a fair question, P.J. We're always looking at how to enhance our portfolio. And obviously, we did significant portfolio change way ahead of many with the addition Solutia and Taminco and divesting a lot of commodity businesses. It's easy to forget history sometimes, but we moved out about $3.5 billion of commodities and added $4.2 billion of revenue in specialties out of $10 billion is a huge portfolio change.

這是一個合理的問題，P.J. 我們一直在研究如何增強我們的投資組合。顯然，我們領先於許多其他公司進行了重大的投資組合調整，增加了 Solutia 和 Taminco，並剝離了大量大宗商品業務。有時我們很容易忘記歷史，但我們從 100 億美元中轉移出約 35 億美元的商品，並增加了 42 億美元的特種產品收入，這是一個巨大的投資組合變化。

So we do really like a portfolio we have now. And yes, we had to optimize it around some underperforming businesses. And I'm proud of our teams delivering on that restructuring activity, which is never easy to sort of get to where we are.

所以我們確實很喜歡我們現在的投資組合。是的，我們必須針對一些表現不佳的業務進行最佳化。我為我們的團隊完成重組活動感到自豪，這項工作從來都不容易，我們才取得了今天的成就。

We don't really feel the need to get a lot bigger. We think we're at a good scale to continue to invest in fundamental R&D, product development as well as application development to grow. And I think that the circular economy, on top of very attractive specialty growth and where we could take that with multiple plants, is a game changer for how we can grow the company and how it could be valued.

我們確實不覺得有必要變得更大。我們認為，我們已達到良好的規模，可以繼續投資於基礎研發、產品開發以及應用程式開發，以實現成長。我認為，循環經濟，加上非常有吸引力的專業成長，以及我們可以透過多家工廠實現的成長，將徹底改變公司的發展方式和估值方式。

So we really are focusing a lot on how we focus on circular. We've got two extremely advantaged streams. Polyester and the way we can do circular economy is a very advantaged stream to grow in this current macro environment that wants to get rid of plastic waste and improve our impact on climate.

所以我們確實非常關注如何關注循環。我們有兩條極為有利的路線。在目前希望擺脫塑膠垃圾並改善對氣候影響的宏觀環境下，聚酯纖維以及循環經濟的發展方式是極具優勢的。

And the cellulosic stream is also incredibly compelling. There's just a tremendous amount of opportunities when you've got a polymer that's 60% biopolymer with our new recycling technology there, 40% recycled plastic waste. And the biodegradability of the product is tunable for different applications.

纖維素流也非常引人注目。當你利用我們的新回收技術獲得 60% 為生物聚合物、40% 為回收塑膠廢棄物的聚合物時，就會出現大量的機會。且產品的生物降解性可根據不同的應用進行調整。

And that last part about biodegradability is increasingly important, and we'll tell you more about that in Innovation Day and some of the opportunities in front of us.

最後關於生物降解性的部分越來越重要，我們將在創新日和我們面臨的一些機會中向您詳細介紹這一點。

So we see a lot of growth in capital deployment in that direction to deliver a lot of organic growth from the portfolio we have right now, where we don't really feel the pressure to run out and do some large M&A. And at the prices today for large M&A that's really attractive, you're going to have a challenged situation in getting a good return. So we don't really -- we're not really focusing on that.

因此，我們看到該方向的資本部署有了很大的增長，從而從我們目前的投資組合中實現了大量的有機增長，我們並沒有真正感受到用盡並進行大規模併購的壓力。如今，大型併購的價格確實很誘人，但要獲得良好的回報卻會面臨挑戰。所以我們實際上並不——我們並沒有真正關注這一點。

Okay. Great. And then you made more propylene in the quarter using your refinery propylene investment, and you had to buy less propylene as a result. Propylene had spiked. So when you look back, it looks like that refinery investment made a lot of sense. But when you look back, what kind of returns do you think you achieved on that? And can you just talk about that?

好的。偉大的。然後，您在本季度利用煉油廠丙烯投資生產了更多的丙烯，因此您必須購買更少的丙烯。丙烯價格飆升。所以當你回顧時，你會發現那項煉油廠的投資非常有意義。但當你回頭看時，你認為你獲得了什麼樣的回報？能簡單談談這個嗎？

Yes. P.J., this is Willie. That paid off in less than a year, and we're at multiples now. So it is a great investment. And we're going to be excited to tell you about some additional options that we have to further raise the floor as we think about the long term because of our ability to optimize our olefins at the Longview site.

是的。P.J.，這是威利。不到一年的時間我們就獲得了回報，現在我們的利潤已經達到數倍。所以這是一項偉大的投資。並且，由於我們有能力優化朗維尤工廠的烯烴，因此我們將很高興地告訴您一些額外的選擇，從長遠考慮，我們必須進一步提高底線。

So again, the modest investment that Mark talked about is another option that we think similar to RGP that will be multiples. And again, most of our capital, as Mark just highlighted, is focused on the specialties and the new vector of circular. But we're still going to make the right optimizations to improve the quality of the portfolio long-term.

因此，我們認為馬克談到的適度投資是另一個類似 RGP 的選擇，而且回報將是倍數的。正如馬克剛才強調的那樣，我們的大部分資金都集中在專業領域和新的循環載體上。但我們仍將進行正確的最佳化，以長期提高投資組合的品質。

And we can now take our next question from Aleksey Yefremov of KeyBanc.

現在我們可以回答 KeyBanc 的 Aleksey Yefremov 提出的下一個問題。

Could you discuss free cash flow conversion. What kind of conversion in terms of percent of EBITDA? What percent of net income do we see next year?

您能討論一下自由現金流轉換嗎？就 EBITDA 百分比而言，轉換率是怎樣的？明年我們的淨收入能達到百分之多少？

Yes, Alex, this is Willie. What I would say is, again, at a growing EBITDA number, we strive to be around that 50% level. If you think about $1 billion, $1.1 billion and $2.2 billion of EBITDA pre divestiture, and we're going to grow back to that level as our focus based on our '22 bridge that we gave you earlier. So think around that 50% level.

是的，亞歷克斯，這是威利。我想說的是，隨著 EBITDA 數字不斷增長，我們力爭達到 50% 左右的水平。如果您考慮資產剝離前的 EBITDA 為 10 億美元、11 億美元和 22 億美元，那麼我們將根據我們之前為您提供的 22 年橋樑，將重點恢復到該水平。因此，請圍繞 50% 的水平進行思考。

And Mark, a question for you on Circular Polymers business. Feedstock availability is a major issue, as you know. Could you discuss what progress you're making this year in securing access to necessary waste streams to grow that business?

馬克，我想問您一個關於循環聚合物業務的問題。如您所知，原料供應是一個主要問題。您能否討論今年在確保獲取必要廢物流以發展業務方面取得了哪些進展？

Sure. Yes, we're making great progress. The advantage we have right now is we're pretty much ahead of the industry and going to commercial scale and building the largest molecular recycling plant on the planet, I think, at this point. So that gives us an advantage in how we show up with different suppliers for what we need.

當然。是的，我們正在取得巨大進步。我認為，我們目前的優勢是，我們在很大程度上領先於該行業，並且正在走向商業規模，並建造地球上最大的分子回收工廠。因此，這為我們提供了優勢，讓我們能夠與不同的供應商一起滿足我們的需求。

There's no doubt that there's plenty of plastic waste. I mean, when you look at polyester just in the U.S., you've got over 20 million pounds of waste a year. About 40% of that is packaging and only about 25% to 30% of that can be recycled today. So -- and when it gets recycled, frankly, most of it goes into textiles, not bottle to bottle.

毫無疑問，塑膠垃圾有很多。我的意思是，僅就美國而言，每年就有超過 2000 萬磅的聚酯纖維被浪費。其中約 40% 是包裝，目前只有約 25% 至 30% 可以回收。所以 — — 當它被回收時，坦白說，大部分都會被製成紡織品，而不是被製成瓶子。

So as you tap into that stream and the advantage of methanolysis is it can use what can't be mechanical recycled from packaging, but it can also use carpet textiles, which almost all end up in landfill. So accessing 100,000 tons of feedstock out of that significantly large number when you're the first showing up to sort of secure, it is challenging but doable.

因此，當您利用該流程時，甲醇分解的優勢在於它可以使用無法透過機械回收的包裝材料，還可以使用地毯紡織品，而這些紡織品幾乎最終都會被填埋。因此，當你是第一個從如此大量的原料中獲取 100,000 噸原料時，這很有挑戰性，但可行。

And the infrastructure out there clearly needs to improve in the U.S. as we get consumers to recycle more and policy to support it and infrastructure in place to sort of recycle it as we look at plants 2, 3 and 4.

美國的基礎設施顯然需要改善，因為我們要讓消費者更多地進行回收，並制定政策來支持回收，並建立適當的基礎設施來進行回收，就像我們看到的 2、3 和 4 號工廠一樣。

But as we look at the first one, we're confident that we can do this, and we will provide more detail in Innovation Day. You're going to hear that a lot today about -- you'll get more detailed Innovation Day, but it's a better forum to provide more detail on this question, which is incredibly important, and we're very focused on it.

但當我們看第一個時，我們有信心我們可以做到這一點，並且我們將在創新日提供更多細節。今天你會聽到很多關於創新日的更詳細的信息，但這是一個更好的論壇，可以提供有關這個問題的更多細節，這非常重要，我們非常關注它。

And we can now take our next question from Mike Sison of Wells Fargo.

現在我們可以回答富國銀行的麥克·西森提出的下一個問題。

I didn't know you had a lot of material on Fermium and Ferrari, but in terms of your -- for AFP, can you maybe talk about each of the businesses you noted in the prepared remarks that you felt these are businesses that are well-positioned to grow? And maybe just talk about some of the growth prospects for each of the remaining businesses in AFP?

我不知道您有很多關於 Fermium 和法拉利的資料，但就您——對於法新社而言，您能否談談您在準備好的發言中提到的每一項業務，您認為這些業務都具有良好的增長潛力？或許可以談談 AFP 剩餘業務各自的成長前景？

For next year, Mike?

明年呢，麥克？

Yes, for next year.

是的，明年。

Yes. So when you think about it in the specialty plastics world, we have just tremendous growth in Tritan. Market demand exceeding our logistics capability serving the market, and we're even capacity constrained into the second quarter, which is why we converted line over to serve Tritan. And now, we've got that capacity that came online through the third quarter and a position to serve growth next year.

是的。因此，當您考慮特種塑膠領域時，您會發現 Tritan 在塑膠領域取得了巨大的成長。市場需求超過了我們服務市場的物流能力，甚至到了第二季度我們的產能仍然受到限制，這就是我們轉換生產線來服務Tritan的原因。現在，我們已經擁有了第三季上線的產能，可以為明年的成長做好準備。

And it's coming from a range of markets. So there's the traditional markets that are being driven with accelerated growth with our renewed recycled content like hydration that's delivering a lot of growth in housewares, those traditional markets that we've always grown in are being accelerated.

它來自多個市場。因此，傳統市場正在受到我們更新的再生材料（如水合物）的推動而加速增長，這為家庭用品帶來了很大的增長，我們一直在增長的那些傳統市場正在加速發展。

And then on top of that, we're getting access to new markets that we wouldn't have normally had. The story we shared with you with Stanley Black & Decker a great example. I mean, it's a power tool. We're not normally in power tools. We normally go into optical clarity kind of applications with Tritan but this is the housings for power tools.

除此之外，我們還能夠進入通常無法進入的新市場。我們與您分享的與 Stanley Black & Decker 相關的案例就是一個很好的例子。我的意思是，它是一種電動工具。我們通常不使用電動工具。我們通常將 Tritan 用於光學清晰度類應用，但這是電動工具的外殼。

And that customer adopted us because one, they're committed to addressing their Scope 3 climate from suppliers and recycled content was a way to start making progress on that, especially as our technology has a lower carbon footprint in a meaningful way relative to a normal fossil fuel process.

這位客戶之所以選擇我們，是因為他們致力於從供應商解決範圍 3 氣候問題，而回收材料是開始在這方面取得進展的一種方式，特別是因為我們的技術與普通化石燃料工藝相比，碳足跡顯著降低。

And they wanted to maintain their quality, right? So a lot of these applications, you can't use mechanical recycling at all because when you're just blending mechanical recycling with virgin, the quality of the product goes down on multiple dimensions.

他們想保持質量，對嗎？因此，在許多應用中，你根本不能使用機械回收，因為當你將機械回收與原始材料混合時，產品的品質會在多個方面下降。

And you can't have that kind of a compromise in the power tool. So we were able to provide recycled content, carbon footprint improvement, zero compromise on the performance of the product. And that's an incredibly important aspect of why we're growing.

在電動工具方面你不能做出這樣的妥協。因此，我們能夠提供可回收材料、改善碳足跡，並且對產品性能不做任何妥協。這是我們不斷發展的一個極其重要的方面。

And then the third part of it was actually a partnership for them. So they want to make sure they're aligned with a company that could scale with them and it was going to be a reliable supplier of this product. There's a lot of companies starting up out there, but they're start-ups, right? And they haven't scaled their technology.

第三部分其實是他們的合作關係。因此，他們希望確保與一家能夠與他們一起擴大規模的公司保持一致，並且該公司將成為該產品的可靠供應商。現在有很多公司在創業，但他們都是新創公司，對嗎？而且他們還沒有擴大其技術的規模。

So when we can show up and provide a product where we've been -- have a 40-year history in doing methanolysis and we've got 100 years of history of supplying products to people very reliably, that was incredibly important to them and who they're going to choose. And we've had 10 other brands sign up in this quarter -- in the third quarter for those sort of similar set of reasons, which we'll tell you more about.

因此，當我們能夠出現在我們所在的地方並提供產品時——我們在甲醇分解方面有 40 年的歷史，我們在為人們提供可靠產品方面有 100 年的歷史，這對他們以及他們將要選擇的人來說非常重要。本季度，也就是第三季度，我們又有 10 個品牌出於類似原因與我們簽約，我們將向您詳細介紹。

But we're really well positioned. It's not just Tritan. It's Cristal Renew, which is our high clarity copolyester recycled content and cosmetic packaging. It's a wide spectrum of things, including our cellulosic into eyewear, et cetera. So a lot of growth in specialty plastics.

但我們確實處於有利地位。不僅僅是 Tritan。它是 Cristal Renew，是我們的高透明度共聚酯再生材料和化妝品包裝。我們的產品範圍很廣，包括將纖維素製成眼鏡等。因此特種塑膠的銷售量將大幅成長。

Obviously, the interlayers in performance films businesses are tied to the auto production recovery as we discussed. But mix is still important, and we still see the mix improving faster than the absolute volume in production because the first thing that the OEMs are going to produce are more luxury high-end value cars when they start addressing their chip and component shortages.

顯然，正如我們所討論的，高性能薄膜夾層業務與汽車生產的復甦息息相關。但產品組合仍然很重要，我們仍然看到產品組合的改善速度快於生產的絕對產量，因為當原始設備製造商開始解決晶片和零件短缺問題時，他們首先要生產的是更多豪華高端汽車。

And we'll pick up that volume with our products are aligned with that market and the mix value of that is also incredibly important. So a lot of growth that can occur across the entire segment.

我們的產品將與該市場保持一致，從而提高銷量，其組合價值也非常重要。因此整個領域都可能大幅成長。

Mark, you might want to do something similar to that for Additives & Functional Products as well?

馬克，您可能也想對添加劑和功能產品做類似的事情？

Sure. Yes. Wow. Question from my own team. That's a new one. So Greg, on [AFP], I think it's the same thing. Coatings has had tremendous growth this year. And that growth will continue. And there's a lot of pent-up demand in coatings, as you all know, with our customers struggling significantly with supply chain challenges.

當然。是的。哇。來自我自己團隊的問題。這是一個新的。所以格雷格，在[法新社]上，我認為這是同一件事。今年塗料行業取得了巨大的成長。而且這種成長還會持續。眾所周知，塗料市場存在大量被壓抑的需求，我們的客戶在供應鏈挑戰方面面臨巨大困難。

So add to them ramping up just to build inventory to serve the seasonal demand next year is good as the supply chain issues continue to get resolved on a availability point of view. So I think, we'll continue to see very strong growth there.

因此，除了增加庫存以滿足明年的季節性需求之外，他們還增加了庫存建設，這是一件好事，因為從可用性的角度來看，供應鏈問題將繼續解決。所以我認為，我們將繼續看到那裡的強勁成長。

The care chemicals business has great steady growth, same with water treatment that will continue going into next year. And then Animal Nutrition is really accelerating their growth in higher-value formulated solutions through the 3F acquisition. And there's, of course, recovery in the aviation business. So there's a lot of different vectors across the entire segment that remains that's well-positioned for growth in the markets that it serves.

護理化學品業務成長穩健，水處理業務也是如此，並將持續到明年。然後，動物營養透過收購 3F 真正加速了其在高價值配方解決方案方面的成長。當然，航空業也正在復甦。因此，整個細分市場中仍存在許多不同的載體，這些載體在其服務的市場中具有良好的成長潛力。

And then of course, we've got innovation like Tetrashield in the packaging that will be a vector of growth. And continued growth in some of the care chemical opportunities and some really exciting new ones that we'll tell you about on Innovation Day.

當然，我們在包裝方面也有像 Tetrashield 這樣的創新，這將成為成長的載體。一些護理化學品機會持續成長，還有一些真正令人興奮的新機會，我們將在創新日向您介紹。

Great. And just a quick follow-up on Chemical Intermediates. EBIT margins have been in the high teens for the last couple of quarters. It sounds like, it will stay maybe in that range for maybe the next 3 quarters. And then, I think in the prepared remarks, you mentioned that you felt it would normalize in the second half. So just curious what normal means these days, but any thoughts of where that level kind of settles in versus much lower levels in the past?

偉大的。並快速跟進化學中間體。過去幾個季度，息稅前利潤率一直處於高位。聽起來，它可能會在接下來的三個季度保持在這個範圍內。然後，我想在準備好的發言中，您提到您認為它會在下半年恢復正常。所以只是好奇現在的正常水平意味著什麼，但是有沒有想過與過去較低的水平相比，這種水平處於什麼位置？

Yes, Mike. So I think that when we think about normalized, we think that's going to be around $300 million. Obviously, there's a path to normal as we go through next year where we expect, at least, in the first half, market conditions to stay relatively tight.

是的，麥克。因此我認為，當我們考慮正常化時，我們認為這個數字將在 3 億美元左右。顯然，明年我們將恢復正常，我們預計至少在上半年，市場狀況將保持相對緊張。

Obviously, there is some loosening of those markets even as we go into the fourth quarter based on our guidance. A lot of it is -- we had tremendously high-value spot sales and incredibly tight market conditions when you look at the second and third quarter. As. demand gets a little bit more sort of balanced, those spot sales go away, and that's a bit of that headwind you're going to see from 3Q to 4Q for CI.

顯然，即使根據我們的預測，進入第四季度，這些市場仍會出現一些放鬆。其中很大一部分是——從第二季和第三季來看，我們的現貨銷售價值非常高，市場狀況也非常緊張。作為。需求變得更加平衡，現貨銷售消失，這就是 CI 在第三季到第四季將會遇到的一點阻力。

But the overall fundamental dynamics of these markets at the derivative level, in particular, I think we expect to remain reasonably tight as we go into the first half of next year and then assume normalization towards that $300 million level in long-term. So -- and I already went through all the details of how we've raised that, what is normal up in the actions that we've taken. I won't repeat it. But there's a lot of things we've done to improve this business, and this new investment will be another step change improvement when it comes online.

但我認為，這些市場在衍生性商品層面的整體基本動態，尤其是在明年上半年，預計仍將保持相當緊張的態勢，然後假設長期內將朝著 3 億美元的水平正常化。所以——我已經詳細介紹了我們如何提出這個問題，以及我們採取的行動中哪些是正常的。我就不重複了。但是我們已經做了很多事情來改善這項業務，而這項新投資上線後將帶來另一個重大的變革。

And we can now take our next question from Matthew DeYoe from Bank of America.

現在我們可以回答美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe 提出的下一個問題。

So I want to hammer in a little bit more on the strategy to offset dilution given all these sales. Will you look to pay off any debt given the lost earnings? And if this is all -- or sorry, is it all buyback? And if it's the latter, I guess, why not execute more aggressively on a buyback now ahead of proceed collection just given your cash balance?

因此，我想進一步強調在考慮到所有這些銷售的情況下抵消稀釋的策略。考慮到收入損失，您會考慮償還債務嗎？如果這就是全部——或者抱歉，這都是回購嗎？如果是後者，我想，既然有現金餘額，為什麼不在收取款項之前更積極地進行回購呢？

Thanks for the question. Let me frame it this way, which is we expect total proceeds to be about $1.8 billion from these transactions and actually $1.7 billion in that over the next few months. So as we look ahead also, this was about 8% of our EBITDA. So as you think about the flow of market cap, we're looking at roughly $1.2 billion. I'll look at that as probably the floor.

謝謝你的提問。讓我這樣表達吧，我們預計這些交易的總收益約為 18 億美元，而未來幾個月的實際收益將達到 17 億美元。因此，展望未來，這約占我們 EBITDA 的 8%。因此，當您考慮市值流動時，我們看到的大約是 12 億美元。我會將此視為可能的底線。

As you think about offsetting dilution and paying taxes, that will raise the number up to roughly $1.5 billion or so. We're going to put that money to work starting here in Q4 with the tires closing, which we expect here in the near term.

當你考慮抵消稀釋和納稅時，這個數字將增加到大約 15 億美元左右。我們將從第四季開始將這筆資金投入使用，預計輪胎生產將在短期內完成。

With that, also given our balance sheet on the tires position, we don't expect to pay down any debt related to that. Obviously, as we look at 2022, we'll see at the timing of getting the proceeds and also managing our debt ladder as we look at '22. We'll have a refinancing in the August time frame and have plenty of time to optimize that when we get there.

此外，考慮到我們的資產負債表上的輪胎狀況，我們預計不會償還與此相關的任何債務。顯然，當我們展望 2022 年時，我們會看到獲得收益的時機，同時也看到在展望 2022 年時管理我們的債務階梯。我們將在八月進行再融資，屆時我們將有充足的時間來優化融資。

Okay. And I know COVID obfuscate us a little bit. But if we were to look between, I don't know, 2015 or 2018 and 2021, what would pro forma growth for AFP have been ex the problem child with Crystex and adhesives just given -- maybe even a better question like what should we expect as the pickup in organic growth in the next 5 years versus the last 5 given the lapse in these businesses?

好的。我知道 COVID 讓我們有點困惑。但如果我們看一下，我不知道，2015 年或 2018 年和 2021 年之間，AFP 的預計增長會是多少，不包括剛才提到的 Crystex 和粘合劑的問題 - 也許甚至一個更好的問題，例如，考慮到這些業務的失誤，我們應該期待未來 5 年與過去 5 年相比有機增長的回升是多少？

Yes. So if you looked at -- and we will be providing a recast, so you can see it in specific numbers. But roughly what you'd see between 2018 and '21 is a roughly flat similar to EBIT from '18 to '21, when you have excluded sort of 1/3 of AFP as we've been discussing it. So I think that's quite stable when you consider the China trade war and the pandemic and sort of recovering out of it.

是的。所以如果你看一下——我們將提供重鑄，這樣你就可以看到具體的數字。但大致而言，當您排除我們一直在討論的 1/3 的 AFP 時，您會看到 2018 年至 2021 年之間的 EBIT 大致持平，類似於 2018 年至 2021 年之間的 EBIT。因此，如果考慮到中國貿易戰、疫情以及疫情後的恢復情況，我認為這個數字是相當穩定的。

And that is based on -- when you look at it relative to '21, an improvement in volume and mix that's been meaningful.

這是基於——當你相對於 21 年開始觀察時，數量和組合都有了顯著的改善。

Spreads are probably a bit challenged relative to '18 just as pricing is still catching up to raws. But overall, very well-positioned segment to deliver pretty strong earnings growth next year relative to that recast number.

由於定價仍在追趕原材料，因此與 2018 年相比，價差可能面臨一些挑戰。但總體而言，相對於重新計算的數字，該細分市場明年的獲利成長將非常強勁。

And that volume mix comes from everywhere. It's coatings, it's animal nutrition, it's care chemicals water treatment, even specialty fluids except for aviation in '21. So -- but that will obviously start correcting itself as well as you go into '22 on that front. So it's an across-the-board sort of volume mix story.

而且這種音量組合來自四面八方。它是塗料、動物營養、護理化學品、水處理，甚至還有 21 年航空以外的特殊液體。所以 — — 但當你進入 22 年時，這種情況顯然也會開始自我糾正。所以這是一個全面的音量組合故事。

We can now take our next question from Daniel Rizzo of Jefferies.

現在我們可以回答 Jefferies 的 Daniel Rizzo 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, a quick question on your portfolio. I mean, it has definitely changed over the years, but you still have a mix of specialty and non-specialty businesses. So if you look over the course of 12 to 18 months, are higher raw materials good or bad for you? Or is it neutral over time?

馬克，關於你的投資組合，我問一個簡單的問題。我的意思是，這些年來它確實發生了變化，但仍然有專業和非專業業務的混合。那麼，如果從 12 到 18 個月的時間來看，原物料價格上漲對您來說是好還是壞？或者隨著時間的推移它是中性的？

If you look at it on a combined basis, it's probably -- from a raw material point of view, I would say you got to then convert that to spreads. Raw materials are up everywhere, but obviously, prices are up more than raw materials and CI where we're lagging price-wise in the specialties.

如果從綜合的角度來看，很可能——從原材料的角度來看，我認為你必須將其轉換為利差。原物料價格到處都在上漲，但顯然，價格上漲幅度超過原物料和 CI，而我們在特種產品的價格方面處於落後地位。

Those two do hedge each other out. That actually provides earnings stability. So if you're focused on earnings stability, a bit of a balance when you've got CI at just 20% of your earnings actually provides some benefits in times like this as your prices are catching up to specialties. And the opposite will be true next year as the price and spreads will improve and the specialty, obviously, you're going to have some spread normalization in CI.

這兩者確實互相對沖。這實際上提供了收益穩定性。因此，如果您注重收入穩定性，那麼當您的 CI 僅佔收入的 20% 時，一點平衡實際上會在這樣的時期帶來一些好處，因為您的價格正在趕上專業水平。而明年的情況則相反，因為價格和利差將會改善，而且顯然，CI 中的利差將會正常化。

The important part of our strategy and our story is not spread, right? We've been very clear about this, right? Our strategy is growing volume and high-value mix in that volume against an asset base that we continue to upgrade with that mix to deliver increasing ROIC as well as deploying more capital for that high-value mix. And that's why you drive value long-term, right? It's not to have spreads bouncing up and down. And so, they actually sort of hedge each other out and provide some balance, and that will be true of next year like it is -- has been this year.

我們的策略和故事的重要部分沒有傳播出去，對嗎？我們已經非常清楚這一點了，對吧？我們的策略是增加交易量，並在資產基礎上不斷提升高價值組合，以增加投資報酬率 (ROIC)，並為高價值組合投入更多資本。這就是您長期追求價值的原因，對嗎？這並不是說利差會上下波動。因此，它們實際上在某種程度上互相對沖並提供了一些平衡，明年也將如此，就像今年一樣。

Okay. And a quick one, a follow-up on -- I mean, you've talked about the bolt-on M&As. Like is the focus mainly in the U.S. or other opportunities ex-U. S.?

好的。還有一個快速的後續問題——我的意思是，您已經談到了附加併購。例如重點主要在美國或美國以外的其他機會。S.？

Yes, as we look at the pipeline, it's -- we're focused globally. As Mark highlighted previously, it's obviously looking at our specialty plastics business and across the new AFP portfolio. And we're focused on that and also on our circular projects from a growth standpoint. So it's about focus now that we've completed the 2/3rds action -- or the actions on the 1/3rd, so that you can see the value of the new AFP.

是的，當我們審視通路時，我們的關注點是全球性的。正如馬克之前所強調的那樣，這顯然是在關注我們的特殊塑膠業務和新的 AFP 產品組合。我們專注於這一點，同時也從成長的角度關注我們的循環項目。因此，現在我們需要集中精力，我們已經完成了 2/3 的行動，或者說 1/3 的行動，這樣你就能看到新 AFP 的價值。

We can now take our next question from Bob Koort of Goldman Sachs.

現在我們可以回答高盛的鮑伯·庫爾特提出的下一個問題。

Mark, I was just observing that over the last 6 months, the '21 earnings for you guys seem to have climbed about 14% or 15%, at least the estimates and the stock's done the opposite. It's down about 15%. You've had this derating that seems very consistent with commodity companies, commodity chemicals like a Dow or Lyondell, they've sort of seen that same derating.

馬克，我剛剛觀察到，在過去的 6 個月裡，你們的 21 年收益似乎增長了約 14% 或 15%，至少預期是這樣，而股票卻恰恰相反。下降了約15%。這種降級似乎與大宗商品公司、大宗化學品（如陶氏或利安德）非常一致，他們也經歷了同樣的降級。

And yet you've been on this evolution upgrade the portfolio. And so there seems to be a pretty stark dislocation from the market perception or appreciation of those efforts and what I would guess are the internal expectations and perceptions there.

但您一直在進行這一演變併升級投資組合。因此，市場對這些努力的看法或評價似乎與我猜測的內在期望和看法有相當大的差異。

So I guess at some point, does the Board decide to get more aggressive or consider an LBO or maybe as Matt suggested, do an ASR before the market catches on to what I would suspect you guys believe internally?

因此，我想，在某個時候，董事會是否會決定採取更積極的措施或考慮槓桿收購，或者也許像馬特所建議的那樣，在市場了解到我懷疑你們內部所相信的事情之前，進行 ASR？

Well, I'm not going to answer that question, Bob. But what I can tell you is the Board is incredibly excited about our strategy and the value creation opportunity that it presents. In the end, you, the market, decide what the company is worth, not us.

好吧，鮑勃，我不會回答這個問題。但我可以告訴你們的是，董事會對我們的策略及其帶來的價值創造機會感到無比興奮。最終，是您，市場，決定公司的價值，而不是我們。

But as we focus on what we're doing in the specialties, as you noted, I think we're going to demonstrate incredibly strong growth next year relative to this year in that part of the portfolio. I think, we're going to manage capital deployment in a responsible way to deploy it in ways that create a lot of very attractive ROIC growth, leveraging the core technologies and platforms that we have.

但正如您所說，當我們專注於專業領域所做的事情時，我認為明年我們將在該部分投資組合中展現出比今年更強勁的成長。我認為，我們將以負責任的方式管理資本部署，利用我們擁有的核心技術和平台，以創造大量非常有吸引力的 ROIC 成長的方式進行部署。

And then you pile on the circular where we could deploy significant capital, if we can get these projects done under the conditions that we have that they provide stable earnings is a significant vector of new growth that isn't remotely factored into our valuation from what I can see at this point.

然後，您可以堆積我們可以部署大量資本的通函，如果我們能夠在現有條件下完成這些項目，那麼它們將提供穩定的收益，這是新增長的重要載體，而從我目前所看到的來看，這還未計入我們的估值。

So there's a huge amount of upside as you're pointing out, and where I think our stock price can go from today. And as that all plays out, and our balance sheet strength that is quite significant now going forward gets deployed, there's a huge amount of upside. And we're confident investors are going to see that value and invest in the company.

因此，正如您所指出的，還有巨大的上漲空間，我認為我們的股價從今天開始就會上漲。隨著這一切的發生，以及我們現在相當顯著的資產負債表實力已部署，我們將擁有巨大的上升空間。我們相信投資者會看到其價值並投資該公司。

And that's why we're doing our Innovation Day in December is to say, lay that all out for you to make sure all of you can see sort of how that can create compounded growth in earnings and cash flow as we go forward.

這就是我們在 12 月舉辦創新日的原因，我們將所有這些都向大家展示出來，以確保大家都能看到，隨著我們不斷前進，這將如何創造收益和現金流的複合增長。

Got it. You mentioned in Advanced Materials, a decent chunk of contracts that reset annually. I was wondering, if you could give us more description there. Is that typically or exclusively to the automakers? Is there any opportunity to shorten up those contract durations, so you can have more market-based pricing or give us some sense of that?

知道了。您在《先進材料》中提到，有相當一部分合約每年都會重置。我想知道您是否可以提供更多描述。這是汽車製造商的典型做法還是專屬做法？是否有機會縮短這些合約期限，以便您可以獲得更多基於市場的定價，或讓我們了解一下？

Yes, these contracts are between us and the glass companies, right? So we don't sell to the OEMs. We're selling to the glass companies that use our films for laminating that glass. It's been a traditional structure in this market since we bought it with these annual contracts. We are looking at how we negotiate both price and structure to these contracts going forward.

是的，這些合約是我們和玻璃公司之間的合同，對嗎？所以我們不向 OEM 銷售。我們將產品銷售給使用我們的薄膜來層壓玻璃的玻璃公司。自從我們透過年度合約購買了它以來，它就成為了這個市場的傳統結構。我們正在研究如何就這些合約的未來價格和結構進行協商。

Obviously, in years of declining raw materials, we like them. In years where raw materials spike up, especially when they spike up like this, it's a problem. It's the same issue in Fibers, where you've got these annual or multi-annual contracts where the prices are locked in.

顯然，在原物料價格下跌的幾年裡，我們喜歡它們。在原物料價格飆升的年份，尤其是像這樣飆升的時候，這是一個問題。Fibers 也存在同樣的問題，它們簽訂的是年度或多年期合同，價格是鎖定的。

And so when you had that huge spike up in energy and raw materials in the back half of this year, you're going to sort of have to wait until January to sort of recover it. But we are aggressively going out with price increases in both interlayers and Fibers, Jan 1.

因此，當今年下半年能源和原物料價格大幅上漲時，你必須等到明年一月才能恢復。但我們將於 1 月 1 日起積極提高夾層和纖維的價格。

And we can now take our next question from [Paretosh Misra] of Berenberg.

現在我們可以回答 Berenberg 公司的 [Paretosh Misra] 提出的下一個問題。

With regard to your PRT start-up next year, it sounds like there's a big demand for recycled plastics. Can you give us a sense as to what percentage of volumes are already booked or contracted? And would you announce an expansion, if you say, are 70%, 80% booked?

關於您明年的 PRT 創業，聽起來對再生塑膠的需求很大。您能否告訴我們已預訂或簽約的數量佔比是多少？如果您說預訂量已經達到 70% 或 80%，您會宣布擴張嗎？

So the uptake in engagement from brands has far exceeded our expectations on the specialty side. We were thinking we have swing assets where we can make our specialty plastics or PET for packaging. And we thought we'd actually be selling a lot of PET for packaging, and that's looking like that's not going to be the case because the specialty demand is so strong.

因此，品牌參與度的提升遠遠超出了我們對專業方面的預期。我們認為我們擁有可以用來生產特殊塑膠或包裝用 PET 的穩定資產。我們原本以為我們實際上會銷售大量用於包裝的 PET，但看起來情況並非如此，因為特殊需求非常強勁。

So I think, we're in very good position for loading the asset pretty quickly into the markets. We're not going to disclose the specific percent number. But I think, it's going to be quite robust and quick.

因此我認為，我們處於非常有利的位置，可以很快將資產推向市場。我們不會透露具體的百分比數字。但我認為，它將非常強勁且快速。

As regards to demand that goes beyond our first plant, yes, the demand is very much there. And that's why we're working so diligently right now with countries and brands around the world, especially in U.S. and Europe right now, who want to solve those challenges.

至於超出我們第一家工廠的需求，是的，需求非常大。這就是為什麼我們現在如此努力地與世界各國和品牌合作，特別是與美國和歐洲的品牌合作，以解決這些挑戰。

When the brands look at this situation, right? They've got two goals. They got to address packaging waste, specifically plastic waste is getting a lot of attention. But if you switch from plastics to something else, you still got to manage that waste.

當品牌看到這種情況時，對嗎？他們有兩個目標。他們必須解決包裝廢棄物問題，特別是塑膠廢棄物問題，引起了廣泛關注。但如果你從塑膠轉向其他材料，你仍然需要處理這些廢物。

And so as you look at this, they've committed to very high recycled content targets, and there isn't remotely enough mechanical recycling product out there to supply that need reliably. In addition, the price of mechanical recycled rPET is going up dramatically in Europe and now as well in the U.S. And the brands are worried about how much that's going to keep going up.

所以，正如您所看到的，他們致力於實現非常高的回收率目標，但市場上卻沒有足夠的機械回收產品來可靠地滿足這一需求。此外，歐洲和美國的機械再生 rPET 價格正在大幅上漲。各大品牌都擔心價格還會繼續上漲多少。

And they are also doing life cycle analysis on the carbon footprint of not just plastic, but alternative materials that they could consider. And unfortunately, you run into a problem, which is all the alternative materials have a worse climate footprint. You recently saw Wendy's switched from coated paper cups to plastic because plastics got a much better climate footprint and can be recycled where the coated paper cannot be recycled.

他們還對塑膠以及他們可以考慮的替代材料的碳足跡進行生命週期分析。不幸的是，你會遇到一個問題，那就是所有替代材料都會對氣候產生更嚴重的負面影響。您最近看到溫迪漢堡從銅版紙杯換成了塑膠杯，因為塑膠對氣候的影響更小，並且可以回收，而銅版紙則無法回收。

So the brands are very focused on how to recycle plastic for a lot of applications and realizing that molecular recycling is the only way forward, especially long-term, if you want to keep your product quality the same, then mechanical recycle is limited in how it can be used. And it degrades over time.

因此，品牌非常關注如何回收塑膠以用於多種應用，並意識到分子回收是唯一的出路，尤其是從長遠來看，如果您想保持產品品質不變，那麼機械回收的使用方式就會受到限制。並且它會隨著時間的推移而退化。

So if you want an infinite solution, you've got to have molecular recycling as part of the solution.

因此，如果您想要一個無限的解決方案，那麼就必須將分子循環作為解決方案的一部分。

So engagement is strong. The need to build more plants is there. And we're driving to find a way to do that under the right conditions. And they are attracted to us because our scale -- our technology is scalable now where the start-ups are still sort of piloting and trying to figure out how to scale up. So that's also drawing a lot of attention to us.

因此參與度很高。需要建造更多的工廠。我們正在努力尋找在適當條件下實現這一目標的方法。他們之所以被我們吸引，是因為我們的規模——我們的技術現在具有可擴展性，而新創公司仍在進行試點，並試圖弄清楚如何擴大規模。所以這也引起了我們的極大關注。

So we feel good about where we're at. We're excited about doing this. But to be clear, we're not going to build any additional plants unless we get the sort of contractual commitments for offtake to give us stable earnings.

因此我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。我們對此感到非常興奮。但需要明確的是，除非我們獲得能夠為我們帶來穩定收益的承購合約承諾，否則我們不會建造任何額外的工廠。

Got it. And then just as a follow-up because CRT process can take a lot more different types of plastics than PRT. So how should we think about the PRT versus CRT mix as these -- both these processes start ramping up in the years ahead?

知道了。然後作為後續行動，因為 CRT 製程比 PRT 製程可以採用更多不同類型的塑膠。那麼，當這兩個過程在未來幾年開始加速時，我們應該如何看待 PRT 與 CRT 的組合呢？

Yes. Well, first of all, they're actually a great complement of technologies together at this site because we have a unique proprietary way to separate unsorted waste plastic that just separate it from polyester to everything else at a much lower cost. So that's one of the feedstock sourcing advantage that we have that I should have mentioned earlier.

是的。首先，它們實際上是這個站點技術的絕佳補充，因為我們擁有獨特的專有方法來分離未分類的廢塑料，以更低的成本將其與聚酯分離，並將其與其他所有物質分開。這是我們應該早點提到的原料採購優勢之一。

And that allows us to take that mixed waste plastic in the CRT, take it into our acetyl stream and make cellulosic biopolymers that gives us a lot of sourcing flexibility. So we see both technologies creating a lot of value, and the CRT is also, through the cellulosic, drawing a lot of attention.

這樣我們就可以將 CRT 中的混合廢塑膠放入乙醯流中並製成纖維素生物聚合物，這為我們提供了許多採購靈活性。因此，我們看到這兩種技術都創造了巨大的價值，而 CRT 也透過纖維素吸引了大量關注。

We've always had -- we've had a biopolymer for 100 years, if you want to go back to acetate film with Kodak. And we've created this huge spectrum of applications off of that core technology in AM, AFP and Fibers.

如果您想回到柯達的醋酸纖維膠片時代，那麼我們已經擁有生物聚合物 100 年了。我們利用 AM、AFP 和光纖領域的核心技術創造了廣泛的應用。

But with the recent change in focusing on climate, focusing on plastic waste, instead of recycling, you can also have biodegradable products as a way to sort of have circular life and that's drawing a lot of attention around the cellulosic stream. We can take back polymer and put it back in the CRT or we can also provide ones that biodegrade based on the application. So a lot of interesting growth there as well that we're really excited about.

但隨著最近人們對氣候和塑膠垃圾的關注度發生變化，人們不再關注回收利用，而是使用可生物降解的產品來實現循環生活，這引起了人們對纖維素流的廣泛關注。我們可以回收聚合物並將其放回 CRT 中，或者我們也可以根據應用提供可生物降解的聚合物。因此那裡也出現了很多有趣的成長，我們對此感到非常興奮。

We can now take our next question from John Roberts of UBS.

現在我們可以回答瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲提出的下一個問題。

I thought the formic acid business was also in the underperforming category. I may be confusing underperforming with noncore, but has that improved a lot now and is part of the core operations?

我認為甲酸業務也屬於表現不佳的類別。我可能會將表現不佳與非核心業務混淆了，但現在情況已經有了很大改善並且已成為核心業務的一部分了嗎？

John, this is Willie. On the formic side, yes, it's a much smaller component. It's a fraction of the size of the two businesses that we sold as we've taken operational and transformational and the operations there. We think, we've got the results that we need and the performances is adequate.

約翰，這是威利。從甲酸的角度來看，是的，它是一個小得多的組成部分。這只是我們出售的兩家公司的規模的一小部分，因為我們已在那裡開展營運和轉型業務。我們認為，我們已經取得了我們需要的結果，並且表現得足夠好。

Okay. And then are automotive films and automotive coatings ingredients being impacted equally by the automotive curtailment?

好的。那麼，汽車薄膜和汽車塗料成分是否同樣受到汽車限購的影響？

So from a film's point of view in Advanced Materials, the interlayers and the aftermarket performance films are more impacted. They're more OEM exposed than our coating additives, where about half of it goes into refinish. And therefore, that's obviously a lot more stable in the current situation. So we feel more of the impact on the film side.

因此，從先進材料中的薄膜角度來看，中間層和售後性能薄膜受到的影響更大。它們比我們的塗料添加劑更多地暴露於 OEM，其中約一半用於修補。因此，在當前情況下，這顯然更加穩定。因此，我們感受到的更多是電影方面的影響。

Let's make the next question the last one, please.

請將下一個問題作為最後一個問題。

We can now take our final question from [J. D. Panda of On Field Research.]

現在我們可以回答 [J.D. Panda 的實地研究。

Just one question really is on your guidance for 2022. I mean, hearing in the call and hearing you talk about so many factors that are going to catch up and be beneficial. Just wondering, are you being just very conservative with regards to your EPS range of 9.5% to 10% because considering all the sort of catch-up on raw materials and the volume leverage that you were talking about in your specialty businesses, I'm just trying to understand what is the conservatism, if there is?

實際上只有一個問題是關於您對 2022 年的指導。我的意思是，在通話中聽到您談論了很多將會趕上並帶來益處的因素。我只是想知道，對於您的 EPS 範圍 9.5% 到 10% 而言，您是否非常保守，因為考慮到原材料的所有追趕以及您在專業業務中談到的產量槓桿，我只是想知道保守主義是什麼，如果有的話？

Look, I wouldn't call it conservative or optimistic at this point. I think, what I'd say is we're sharing our best thinking with you right now of what we know. Obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty in the future.

瞧，目前我不會稱之為保守或樂觀。我想，我想說的是，我們現在正在與你們分享我們所知的最佳想法。顯然，未來存在著許多不確定性。

Things we're certain about is we know we can control our costs, right? And we have a very aggressive transformation program going that when you look at operational transformation cost cutting plus variable comp tailwind, that's about $200 million of tailwind that offsets about $80 million to $100 million of inflation.

我們可以確定的是，我們知道我們可以控製成本，對嗎？我們有一個非常積極的轉型計劃，當你考慮到營運轉型成本削減加上可變薪酬順風時，大約 2 億美元的順風可以抵消大約 8000 萬至 1 億美元的通貨膨脹。

We know that we're going to invest in growing this business. We have tremendous growth opportunities right there across our portfolio. And so we have growth investments in that sort of $50 million to $75 million range that is controllable. We can control the pace of that based on how the market is doing. And that does include some preproduction expense on starting up methanol and some other plants when you think about that number.

我們知道我們將投資來發展這項業務。我們的投資組合中蘊藏著巨大的成長機會。因此，我們的成長投資在 5,000 萬美元至 7,500 萬美元之間，是可控的。我們可以根據市場表現來控制這一步伐。當你考慮這個數字時，這確實包括啟動甲醇和其他一些工廠的一些預生產費用。

But those are controllable. Obviously, there's uncertainty about where CI is going to go. I think we've got a reasonable assumption, but we'll see. We'll defer to the -- to some other companies on that and where the markets are.

但這些都是可控的。顯然，CI 的未來發展方向仍不確定。我認為我們有一個合理的假設，但我們拭目以待。我們將聽取其他公司的意見以及了解市場狀況。

And then on the specialty side, what I'd say is we do feel good about the growth potential, the innovation to create levered growth on these markets and that spreads will be a tailwind. But there's still a lot of uncertainty about automotive demand as many of these questions have highlighted, there's uncertainty about where raw materials are going to trend and how they progress from where we are now into next year as well as distribution costs.

然後在專業方面，我想說的是，我們確實對成長潛力、在這些市場上創造槓桿成長的創新以及利差將成為順風感到樂觀。但正如許多問題所強調的那樣，汽車需求仍然存在許多不確定性，原材料的趨勢如何、從現在到明年的走勢如何以及分銷成本如何，都存在不確定性。

So there's a lot of uncertainties out there that none of us can, frankly, predict.

因此，存在著許多不確定因素，坦白說，我們誰都無法預測。

So what we're confident is if you look at it in three buckets, you've got divested earnings offset by share repurchases. You got a bucket of CI spread normalization offset by cost reductions. And then you're asking a question, which is can specialties grow next year relative to this year in variable margin. And I think we've laid out a case where we think the answer to that is very much yes.

因此，我們相信，如果從三個角度來看，剝離的收益可以透過股票回購來抵銷。您獲得了大量 CI 價差標準化補償，但成本卻降低了。然後你會問一個問題，明年的專業化利潤率相對於今年是否會有所成長。我認為我們已經提出了一個案例，我們認為答案是肯定的。

But I'm not going to get into trying to be more precise about that until we get to January. We're going to have a better look at the world we live in at that point.

但直到一月我才會嘗試更精確地說明這一點。到那時，我們將會更能審視我們所處的世界。

Great. And well done on the Synthomer deal.

偉大的。Synthomer 交易做得很好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just to wrap up, what I'd like to say is deeply appreciate the questions, the interest in the company. We're incredibly excited about the Innovation Day coming up in December. It's been a while since we've had that kind of opportunity to really get more into the detail with investors on how we're going to grow this company and deploy our balance sheet to create a lot of very attractive growth.

總而言之，我想說的是，我非常感謝大家提出的問題以及對公司的關注。我們對 12 月即將到來的創新日感到無比興奮。我們已經有一段時間沒有這樣的機會與投資者真正詳細地討論如何發展這家公司並部署我們的資產負債表以創造非常有吸引力的成長。

And we're excited. When we look at -- the Board and I, we're having this conversation at our last meeting in the beginning of October, and this is the most exciting time I think, we've had when we think about all the different ways we can grow this company. and create value. So we look forward to sharing that with you in December. Hopefully, it will be virtual, but I hope I will get as many people as possible show up in person as well as be available online so we can have a better chance to interact with all of you. Thank you.

我們很興奮。當我們審視——董事會和我，我們在十月初的最後一次會議上進行了這次對話，我認為這是最激動人心的時刻，我們思考了發展這家公司的所有不同方式。並創造價值。因此，我們期待在 12 月與您分享這一點。希望它是虛擬的，但我希望盡可能多的人能夠親自到場並且可以在線，這樣我們就可以有更好的機會與大家互動。謝謝。

Thanks again for joining us this morning. I hope everybody has a great day. That's the end of the call.

再次感謝您今天早上加入我們。我希望每個人都度過愉快的一天。通話到此結束。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。