伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter Full Year 2020 Eastman Chemical Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化工2020年第四季全年電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議將在伊士曼網站www.eastman.com上進行現場直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將把電話轉交給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部的Greg Riddle先生。先生，請講。

Okay. Thank you, Cecilia, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations.

好的。謝謝你，塞西莉亞，大家早安，謝謝你們的參與。今天和我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、高級副總裁兼首席財務官威利·麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain) 以及投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Yesterday after market close, in addition to our fourth quarter and full year 2020 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, we posted slides and related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website, www.eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，除了發布 2020 年第四季和全年財務業績新聞稿和向 SEC 提交 8-K 報告外，我們還在公司網站 www.eastman.com 的「投資者」部分發布了幻燈片和相關的準備好的評論。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in the fourth quarter and full year 2020 financial results news release. During this call, in the proceeding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-Q filed for third quarter 2020 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for third quarter 2020.

在開始之前，我將介紹兩點。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到一些關於我們計劃和預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在2020年第四季和全年財務業績新聞稿中詳細說明。在本次電話會議中，在會議幻燈片和準備好的發言稿中，以及在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，包括提交的2020年第三季度10-Q表和即將提交的2020年第三季度10-Q表，均已詳細說明。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the fourth quarter and full year 2020 financial results news release, which can be found on our website.

其次，本報告提及的收益不包括某些非核心及非常規項目。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳及其他相關揭露資訊（包括排除項目和調整後項目的描述）可在 2020 年第四季和全年財務業績新聞稿中找到，新聞稿可在我們的網站上找到。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給馬克。

Good morning, and thanks, Greg. Before we answer your questions, I want to take a few minutes to make some comments.

早安，謝謝，格雷格。在回答你的問題之前，我想花幾分鐘時間發表一些評論。

We've had a strong recovery in the fourth quarter and robust performance for the full year despite the challenges associated with COVID-19. I'm incredibly proud of how Eastman employees around the world responded to these challenges and stepped up to help us deliver in 2020.

儘管面臨新冠疫情帶來的挑戰，但我們第四季強勁復甦，全年業績依然強勁。我為伊士曼全球員工應對挑戰、奮力拼搏、幫助我們實現2020年目標感到無比自豪。

And here are some of the highlights. Early in the year, we took quick and decisive action to adjust our operations to keep employees safe and preserve our operational integrity. We shifted our financial forecast of prioritizing cash and liquidity, given the uncertainties, and we delivered another year of outstanding cash flow, our fourth consecutive year of cash flow greater than $1 billion.

以下是一些亮點。年初，我們迅速果斷地調整營運，以確保員工安全並維護公司營運的完整性。考慮到不確定性，我們調整了優先考慮現金和流動性的財務預測，並再次實現了出色的現金流，這是我們連續第四年現金流超過10億美元。

While we prioritized cash, our earnings performance was resilient, which is a testament to the tremendous investments we've made in our innovation portfolio and our overall business portfolio over the last decade, including enhancing our market development and commercial capabilities. Additionally, we demonstrated we have diverse portfolio of businesses and end markets, which gives us stability.

雖然我們優先考慮現金，但我們的獲利表現依然強勁，這證明了我們過去十年對創新組合和整體業務組合的巨額投資，包括提升我們的市場開發和商業能力。此外，我們展現了多元化的業務和終端市場組合，這為我們帶來了穩定性。

As you know, we are committed to being a leader in the circular economy. We've accelerated progress, and it's paying off with several wins across our portfolio, including Eastman being named as a Wall Street Journal Most Sustainably Managed Company of 2020. In addition, in our 2020 sustainability report, we committed to the ambitious goals of reducing our scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 1/3 by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.

眾所周知，我們致力於成為循環經濟的領導者。我們加快了步伐，並取得了豐碩的成果，我們的產品組合贏得了多項殊榮，包括伊士曼被《華爾街日報》評為2020年最具永續性管理的公司。此外，在2020年永續發展報告中，我們承諾實現宏偉目標：到2030年將範圍1和範圍2的溫室氣體排放量減少三分之一，到2050年實現碳中和。

Looking forward to 2021, we entered this year with momentum from our record fourth quarter results, and we're seeing clear signs of recovery across many of our markets, including strong orders in January. That said, visibility remains limited due to the continuing effects of COVID-19. This means that we will continue to focus on what we can control.

展望2021年，我們以創紀錄的第四季業績為基石，在新一年邁入之際，也看到了許多市場復甦的明顯跡象，包括1月份強勁的訂單。然而，由於新冠疫情的持續影響，未來前景仍然有限。這意味著我們將繼續專注於我們力所能及的事情。

In 2020, we meaningfully reduced capacity utilization as we aggressively managed inventory well beyond the decline in demand to maximize cash. As a result, EBIT declined by about $100 million just related to this additional inventory actions we took. If volume is flat in '21 compared with '20, we would have about $100 million tailwind from this improved utilization as we go into this year or about $0.60 a share.

2020年，我們大幅降低了產能利用率，並積極管理庫存，使其遠超過需求下降幅度，從而最大限度地提高現金流。結果，僅與我們採取的額外庫存措施相關的息稅前利潤就下降了約1億美元。如果2021年的銷售量與2020年持平，那麼進入今年，我們將從產能利用率的提高中獲得約1億美元的收益，相當於每股收益約0.60美元。

Looking at our cost structure, you'll recall that we reduced cost by approximately $150 million in 2020 versus '19, and we estimate about $100 million of this was temporary. We also took actions to accelerate our transformation program, and we are on track to reduce costs in 2021 to offset the return of those temporary costs. As a result, in 2021, we expect our cost structure to be about flat when we compare it to 2020.

回顧我們的成本結構，大家應該還記得，2020年的成本較2019年降低了約1.5億美元，我們估計其中約1億美元是暫時的。我們也採取了措施，加快了轉型計劃，並有望在2021年降低成本，以抵消這些暫時性成本的回報。因此，我們預計2021年的成本結構與2020年相比將基本持平。

On top line growth, we expect growth from 3 levers. First, we anticipate market to continue to improve relative to 2020 as we have seen in Q4 and in January. Second, we continue to make progress with our innovation-driven growth model to grow faster than our underlying markets in many of our specialty products. There are a number of examples of this across our portfolio in 2020, and we expect it to continue in '21.

在營收成長方面，我們預期成長將來自三個槓桿。首先，正如我們在第四季和一月所看到的那樣，我們預計市場將持續改善，優於2020年。其次，我們將持續推動創新驅動的成長模式，使我們許多特色產品的成長速度超過基礎市場。 2020年，我們的投資組合中有很多這樣的例子，我們預期這種勢頭將在2021年繼續維持下去。

Third, we project a strong improvement in mix with recovery in these high-value markets and the innovation-driven growth of our premium products. A significant portion of our headwinds in 2019 with the trade war as well as 2020 with COVID-19 were related to mix. As growth in our specialty products accelerates in '21, improved mix will be a powerful driver of our earnings growth. We've already seen this benefit in Q4 of '20 and expect it to accelerate through '21.

第三，隨著這些高價值市場的復甦以及我們高端產品的創新驅動成長，我們預期產品組合將大幅改善。 2019年貿易戰以及2020年新冠疫情帶給我們很大一部分的挑戰都與產品組合有關。隨著我們特色產品在21年加速成長，產品組合的改善將成為我們獲利成長的強大驅動力。我們已經在2020年第四季看到了這一優勢，並預計這一優勢將在整個21年加速顯現。

There are also headwinds, including the lack of visibility related to COVID-19 and other global macroeconomic uncertainties. In addition, we're seeing costs for raw materials, energy and logistics rising and have competitive pressures in a few products. When we put this together, we expect our '21 adjusted EPS will increase between 20% and 30% compared to 2020. This means our expected '21 EPS will be well above 2019, which would further demonstrate the strength of our portfolio.

此外，我們也面臨一些不利因素，包括新冠疫情缺乏可預見性以及其他全球宏觀經濟不確定性。此外，我們看到原材料、能源和物流成本不斷上漲，部分產品面臨競爭壓力。綜合考慮這些因素，我們預計2021年調整後每股盈餘將較2020年成長20%至30%。這意味著我們預期的2021年每股盈餘將遠高於2019年，這將進一步彰顯我們投資組合的實力。

We anticipate a strong start to 2021 with adjusted EPS similar to the first quarter of '20. You'll recall in the first quarter of 2020, our EPS was up 15% year-over-year, a very strong performance for our industry at that time. Finally, on cash, a high priority for Eastman, we expect '21 to be our fifth consecutive year of free cash flow above $1 billion.

我們預計2021年開局強勁，調整後每股盈餘將與2020年第一季持平。大家應該還記得，2020年第一季，我們的每股盈餘年增15%，這在當時的產業中是非常強勁的表現。最後，關於現金，這是伊士曼的首要任務，我們預計2021年將是公司連續第五年自由現金流超過10億美元。

A moment ago, I talked about our intention to be a leader in the circular economy. And as part of that commitment, today, we're announcing, along with Tennessee Governor Bill Lee, our plan to build one of the world's largest methanolysis facilities here in Kingsport. Through methanolysis, this world-scale facility will convert waste plastic, polyester plastic that often ends up in landfill and waterways into durable products. Over the next 2 years, Eastman will invest approximately $250 million in the facility, which will support Eastman's commitment to addressing the global waste crisis and mitigating challenges created by climate change, while also creating value for shareholders.

剛才我談到了我們致力於成為循環經濟領導者的決心。作為這項承諾的一部分，今天，我們與田納西州州長比爾李共同宣布，計劃在金斯波特建造全球最大的甲醇分解設施之一。透過甲醇分解，這座世界級的設施將把通常最終被填埋和排放到水道的廢棄塑膠、聚酯塑膠轉化為耐用產品。未來兩年，伊士曼將向該設施投資約2.5億美元，這將支持伊士曼致力於應對全球廢棄物危機和緩解氣候變遷帶來的挑戰，同時為股東創造價值。

Using the company's polyester renewal technologies, this new facility will use 110 KMT of plastic waste to produce premium, high-quality specialty plastics made with recycled content. This will not only reduce the company's use of fossil fuels feedstocks, but it will also reduce our greenhouse gas emissions by 20% to 30%. This is incredibly exciting news, and we're only just beginning.

該新工廠將利用該公司的聚酯再生技術，利用11萬噸塑膠廢料生產由再生材料製成的優質特殊塑膠。這不僅將減少公司對化石燃料原料的使用，也將減少20%至30%的溫室氣體排放。這是一個令人振奮的消息，而我們才剛開始。

I'll close where I began with appreciation for the men and women of Eastman that make all of this happen and do it with a bias for action, adaptability and optimism for the future. I share their optimism. This is an exciting time for Eastman. Our strengths have never been clearer, and it gives me the confidence that we are well positioned to manage in this uncertain environment and deliver long-term attractive earnings growth and sustainable value creation for our owners and all of our stakeholders.

最後，我要再次感謝伊士曼全體同仁，他們以積極行動、靈活變通和樂觀樂觀的態度成就了這一切。我與他們一樣充滿樂觀。對伊士曼來說，這是一個令人興奮的時刻。我們的優勢從未如此清晰，這讓我充滿信心，我們完全有能力應對這個充滿不確定性的環境，並為我們的股東和所有利益相關者實現長期可觀的盈利增長和可持續的價值創造。

With that, I'll turn it back to Greg.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給格雷格。

Thank you, Mark. Cecilia, we are now ready for questions.

謝謝馬克。塞西莉亞，我們現在可以提問了。

(Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）現在我們將回答摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews 提出的第一個問題。

Mark, wondering if you could just talk a little bit about the molecular recycling plan. I can't pronounce methyl, whatever it is. Just help us understand, it sounds like you're saying this is going to be the world's largest, but what is the scalability of these in terms of how much larger could it be? Where do you -- where are you in terms of customer demand in terms of filling it out? And in the script, you talked a little bit about there being clear evidence of willingness to pay price premiums for renewable products. How are you going to be pricing this product? Maybe you could just start there.

馬克，您能否簡單談談分子回收計畫？我不會念「甲基」這個詞，不管它是什麼。請您幫我們理解一下。聽起來您好像在說這將是世界上最大的回收計劃，但它的可擴展性如何？它能擴大到多大？就客戶需求而言，您目前處於什麼位置？在方案中，您提到有明確的證據顯示人們願意為再生產品支付溢價。您打算如何為這個產品定價？或許您可以從這裡開始。

Sure, Vincent. And it's methanolysis. So it's a technology that's been around for a long time. Kodak developed it decades ago to recycle actually polyester x-ray material, and then they learned and saw the opportunity to take municipal waste and broaden the operating capability of this technology back then. And it's something that I actually wanted to start in 2010.

當然，文森特。它就是甲醇分解。所以這項技術已經存在很久了。柯達幾十年前開發了這項技術，實際上是用來回收聚酯X射線材料。後來他們學習並發現了利用城市垃圾處理這項技術的機會，並拓展了它的使用範圍。其實，我在2010年就想開始做這件事了。

We actually had the plans on the -- and developing the engineering of it at that time, but the market wasn't ready for it. We're really excited because the market is very much ready for it now. Climate, circularity, sustainability is obviously becoming incredible priority around the world. Even with COVID, it's just become stronger, not less. And so we think we're in a great position to be a leader here. When you think about the technology and the opportunity that it has from a market point of view, it's tremendous around a wide range of specialty plastic businesses from hydration to consumer durables, to electronics, ophthalmics, et cetera, to a wide range of markets.

我們當時確實有計劃——並且正在開發它的工程，但市場還沒有做好準備。我們非常興奮，因為現在市場已經做好了充分的準備。氣候、循環性和永續性顯然正成為全球各國高度重視的議題。即使在新冠疫情期間，這些議題也變得更加重要，而不是減弱。因此，我們認為我們在這方面處於領先地位。從市場角度來看，這項技術及其帶來的機遇，在從水合物到耐用消費品、電子產品、眼科用品等一系列特種塑膠業務領域，以及廣泛的市場領域，都具有巨大的潛力。

A lot of customers are very interested in this as they are making aggressive commitments to improve the recycled content. And so there's just a lot of engagement. We have over 100 customer trials going on right now across a wide range of different applications. So the ability to grow is there. We've already seen great success in launch with CamelBak and Nalgene, where they've put in our recycled content into our Tritan Renew, and you'll see a lot more announcements as we go through this quarter. So the demand is there.

很多客戶對此非常感興趣，因為他們積極承諾改進再生材料。因此，我們參與度很高。目前，我們正在進行超過100個客戶試驗，涵蓋各種不同的應用領域。因此，我們擁有成長潛力。我們已經與CamelBak和Nalgene合作，取得了巨大成功，他們在Tritan Renew產品中加入了我們的再生材料。隨著本季的推進，您還會看到更多相關公告。所以，市場需求是存在的。

From a value point of view, as we showed you on the chart, retail products are commanding a premium for recycled content and sustainability. PET, food-grade PET is trading at a substantially higher premium in Europe as people are trying to work towards their recycled content goals. And I think customers recognize that there has to be some amount of premium that we have to achieve to make these kind of investments to solve such a serious challenge we face around the world. Obviously, everyone wants to keep this as affordable as possible. And so we don't expect our premiums to be significant, but sufficient to give us an attractive return. But our primary goal of getting return is on the growth in this business.

從價值角度來看，如我們在圖表中所示，零售產品因採用再生材料和永續性而獲得溢價。在歐洲，隨著人們努力實現再生材料的目標，食品級PET的交易溢價大幅上升。我認為客戶體認到，為了因應全球面臨的嚴峻挑戰，我們必須實現一定的溢價。顯然，每個人都希望盡可能地降低成本。因此，我們並不期望溢價過高，但足以帶來可觀的回報。但我們獲得回報的首要目標是推動業務成長。

And we're able to load this plant really fast as another advantage on the economic side because we can take a balance of slowly growing the specialty conversions like we do in any specialty product, but fill in the rest of capacity with PET into the packaging market where there's strong demand and then just keep on valuing that up over time. So the economics here are quite attractive.

我們能夠快速地將工廠產能投入使用，這在經濟方面也具有另一個優勢，因為我們可以像處理任何特種產品一樣，緩慢地提高特種產品的轉化率，同時用PET填補剩餘產能，供應給需求旺盛的包裝市場，然後隨著時間的推移不斷提升其價值。因此，這裡的經濟效益相當誘人。

So a lot of different ways to sort of win in both existing applications through premiums and accelerated growth, getting into new applications like electronics and automotive as some key examples. And our scale and integration gives us a huge advantage in how we can do this. We've got some significant advantages in how we can manage our feedstocks.

所以，我們有很多不同的方法可以在現有應用領域透過溢價和加速成長來取勝，例如進軍電子和汽車等新應用領域。我們的規模和整合能力賦予了我們巨大的優勢。我們在原料管理方面也擁有顯著優勢。

And just as a follow-up, the $600 million of revenue, does that -- is that just sort of assuming from this plant? Or is that assuming additional capacity down the road?

再問一下，6億美元的收入，是假設這家工廠能夠實現的嗎？還是假設未來還會有更多產能？

Right. You asked about the scalability of this and additional plants, sorry, Vincent. So to be clear, the $600 million of new business from innovation is for the total corporation of all of our products, not just methanolysis. When you think about methanolysis and we look at it as a stand-alone opportunity, both the polyester revenue -- the polyester renewal technology and the carbonyl technology combined, we think, is between $500 million and $1 billion revenue platform for the company. Obviously, that doesn't happen in 1 year. It takes years to build that out. But a very substantial platform, frankly, the biggest platform after Tritan before this, and this would be the 2 biggest platforms we have.

對。你問到這個工廠和其他工廠的可擴展性，抱歉，文森。所以要明確的是，創新帶來的6億美元新業務是針對我們所有產品的整個公司，而不僅僅是甲醇分解。當你考慮甲醇分解時，我們將其視為一個獨立的業務機會，我們認為聚酯收入——聚酯更新技術和羰基技術加起來，可以為公司帶來5億到10億美元的收入平台。顯然，這不可能在一年內實現。需要數年時間才能建成。但這是一個非常重要的平台，坦白說，它是繼Tritan之後最大的平台，而這將是我們擁有的兩個最大的平台。

And that doesn't include scalability. So that's building plants to serve the demand that we think we can make with our specialty products. We also think this is scalable in partnerships with other people around the world who are very interested in recycled content for their needs and are pursuing a business model around how we scale this into multiple plants around the world focused on doing the methanolysis. It's very scalable to build these plants and economic, and there's an advantage to having them in different regions. So we think there's whole another vector of growth on top of this. But it's early days, so I don't want to get ahead of ourselves on that.

這還不包括可擴展性。也就是說，我們建造工廠來滿足我們認為可以用我們的特色產品滿足的需求。我們也認為，透過與世界各地對回收材料非常感興趣的公司合作，這項業務也具有可擴展性，這些公司正在尋求一種商業模式，圍繞著如何將業務擴展到全球多個專注於甲醇分解的工廠。建造這些工廠具有很強的可擴展性和經濟效益，而且將它們建在不同地區也有優勢。因此，我們認為在此基礎上還有另一個成長方向。但現在還處於初期階段，所以我不想操之過急。

We will now take our next question from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

我們現在將回答摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas 提出的下一個問題。

My first question is, you talked about $100 million cost penalty from lower utilization, but wasn't the cost penalty $200 million? Why doesn't $200 million come back in 2021?

我的第一個問題是，您提到了利用率降低造成的1億美元成本損失，但這筆成本損失不是2億美元嗎？為什麼2億美元到2021年還不回來？

Jeff, this is Willie. First, what we would highlight is the $100 million that we're highlighting as a tailwind is specifically related to the $300 million of inventory reduction actions that we took in 2020, and you can clearly see the impact of that in our cash flow. The other $100 million is we think about utilization versus volume mix, and you can combine those 2 together. So fundamentally, the lower utilization and volume mix net together with the other $100 million.

傑夫，我是威利。首先，我們要強調的是，我們重點提到的那1億美元，它與我們在2020年採取的3億美元庫存削減措施具體相關，您可以清楚地看到這對我們現金流的影響。另外1億美元，我們考慮的是利用率與產量結構，您可以將兩者結合。因此，從根本上講，較低的利用率和產量結構與另外1億美元相加。

Okay. And in your methanolysis facility, why don't you just buy methanol? Why do you have to make methanol?

好的。那你們的甲醇分解設施為什麼不直接購買甲醇呢？為什麼一定要自己生產甲醇呢？

Jeff, it's not -- we're not making methanol. So I don't know where they came up with the name of the technology. But what you basically do is you take polyester waste and you use methanol and a modest amount of energy to convert that waste or unzip the polyester basically back into its intermediates of DMT and EG and other monomers and purify it. So it's actually an input not an output to the process to depolymerize the molecule. So that's sort of how it works. And it's far more energy-efficient than the fossil fuel process. So while it takes a bit of energy in methanol, it's a lot less than sort of pulling oil out of the ground and all the steps to get it to being DMT and EG. So we're 20% to 30% better carbon footprint by doing this technology.

傑夫，我們不是──我們不是在生產甲醇。所以我不知道他們是怎麼想出這個技術名字的。但基本上，你做的是處理聚酯廢料，用甲醇和少量能源將其轉化或解壓成中間體DMT、EG和其他單體，然後進行淨化。所以，這其實是分子解聚過程的輸入，而不是輸出。這就是它的工作原理。而且它比化石燃料製程節能得多。雖然生產甲醇需要一些能源，但比從地下開採石油並將其轉化為DMT和EG的所有步驟要少得多。因此，透過這項技術，我們可以減少20%到30%的碳足跡。

And I think that's an important thing we want to emphasize is, any technologies we do around recycling, we believe there are 2 fundamental goals you have to meet at the same time. We have a plastic waste crisis. We need to address it, and we shouldn't be wasting any of that carbon in the environment or letting it impact the environment. But at the same time, we got to make sure our carbon footprint is better. Otherwise, we're really not improving the overall environment. So every technology we're looking at has a better carbon footprint than the fossil fuel process. That's true of methanolysis. Our CRT also 20% to 50% better depending on the feedstock. So we're addressing both our climate impact with process innovation as well as solving a waste crisis.

我認為我們想要強調的一點是，我們圍繞著回收所開發的任何技術，都應同時實現兩個基本目標。我們面臨塑膠垃圾危機。我們必須解決這個問題，並且不應將任何碳排放到環境中，也不應讓其影響環境。但同時，我們必須確保我們的碳足跡更佳。否則，我們實際上並沒有改善整體環境。因此，我們正在研究的每項技術都比化石燃料製程的碳足跡更佳。甲醇分解就是如此。根據原料的不同，我們的CRT（碳足跡）也比化石燃料製程的碳足跡好20%到50%。因此，我們既要透過製程創新來應對氣候影響，也要解決廢棄物危機。

So you're buying the methanol, is that it?

所以你買的是甲醇，是嗎？

Well, we make our own methanol and buy some methanol. It's a mixed bag, as you know, from the broad portfolio of products we make.

嗯，我們自己生產甲醇，也買一些甲醇。如你所知，我們生產的產品種類繁多，所以甲醇的種類也比較雜物。

We will now take our next question from John Roberts from UBS.

我們現在將回答瑞銀集團的約翰羅伯茲提出的下一個問題。

You talked about a 5% revenue headwind in chemical intermediates in 2021 from the changes that you made at the Singapore oxos facility. That seems really big. I didn't realize that facility maybe was as big as it was. Or is it a significant shutdown or closure you've done there?

您提到，由於新加坡羰基合成工廠的改造，2021年化學中間體業務的收入將下降5%。這看起來影響很大。我之前沒想到那家工廠規模這麼大。或者說，這是你們對那裡進行的大規模停產或關閉？

Yes. Thanks, John. To your point, as we've made the decisions to, I'll call it, cease the operations at our Singapore site, fundamentally, it was based on the raw material positions that we have at that facility in Singapore. And roughly, it is a world-scale equivalent of an oxo facility. It's about 1/5 the size of what we have in Longview, but still significant from a volume output.

是的，謝謝，約翰。正如您所說，我們之所以決定停止新加坡工廠的運營，本質上是基於我們在新加坡工廠的原材料儲備。它大致相當於一個世界級的羰基合成工廠。它的規模大約是我們朗維尤工廠的五分之一，但產量仍然相當可觀。

The key factor, as we think about 2021 and going forward, is, overall, that will give us an opportunity to, I'll call it, continue to debottleneck our facilities in Texas, where we have a much better cost position. And from a fixed cost structure standpoint, we expect to improve earnings by about $25 million on a go-forward basis.

展望2021年及未來，關鍵因素在於，總體而言，這將給我們一個機會，我稱之為，繼續消除德州工廠的瓶頸，我們在那裡擁有更優的成本優勢。從固定成本結構的角度來看，我們預期未來獲利將增加約2,500萬美元。

But this is an action we wanted to take for a while. It's not a profitable position to be with our cost structure that we had in Singapore, but we had to wait until the contracts expired to be able to shut it down on the supply side. And so while the volume is going to be down, the earnings are going to be meaningfully up around $20 million, $25 million net-net by taking this action. So we've always warned you that CI has a lot of volume volatility to it because of shutdowns or just planned maintenance shutdowns or this. It's really dangerous to look at volumes in that section. You need to just focus on the earnings.

但這是我們一段時間以來一直想採取的行動。以我們在新加坡的成本結構來看，這並非獲利點，但我們不得不等到合約到期才能在供應方面停止生產。因此，雖然產量會下降，但透過採取此行動，獲利將大幅增加約2,000萬至2,500萬美元。因此，我們一直警告您，由於停產或計劃內維護停產等原因，CI的產量波動很大。關注產量這部分非常危險。您只需要關注盈利。

We will now take our next question from Matthew DeYoe from Bank of America.

我們現在將回答美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe 提出的下一個問題。

Can you just speak a little bit to the confidence in securing feedstock for the methanolysis plant? U.S. garbage infrastructure isn't typically geared to moving product inland to Tennessee. So how do you -- what's your workaround there?

您能否簡單談談您對甲醇分解工廠原料供應的信心？美國的垃圾處理基礎設施通常不適合將垃圾運往田納西州內陸。那麼您有什麼因應措施嗎？

Sure. It's a great question. It's one of the strangest questions. When you think about the plastic waste crisis that I think everyone can agree needs to be addressed and there's so much of it out there. And yet, one of the biggest challenges for any of these investments is actually getting it delivered to your site, which is very confusing, but a true challenge and a question.

當然。這個問題問得很好，也是最奇怪的問題之一。想想塑膠垃圾危機，我想大家都會同意這個問題需要解決，而且現在太多塑膠垃圾了。然而，這些投資面臨的最大挑戰之一是如何將垃圾運送到你的場地，這很令人困惑，但卻是一個真正的挑戰，也是一個問題。

So we have a lot of partnerships we've developed to supply us with waste. And we have some very unique advantages around how we can handle waste. Because the combination of the PRT using polyester and the CRT being able to use mixed plastic of a wide spectrum as we sort of repurpose our gas fire to reform plastic at the same site, we can actually take a very mixed plastic stream that no one else really can manage because we can take this very low cost and more readily available mix plastic that doesn't require much separation and do that separation very efficiently here in a unique process we've developed and feed that then separated streaming in these 2 assets.

因此，我們與許多合作夥伴建立了合作夥伴關係，為我們提供廢棄物。我們在處理廢料方面擁有一些非常獨特的優勢。由於PRT使用聚酯，而CRT能夠使用各種混合塑料，我們在同一地點重新利用燃氣燃燒器來重整塑料，因此我們實際上可以處理非常混合的塑料流，這是其他任何人都無法處理的，因為我們可以使用這種成本非常低且更容易獲得的混合塑料，它不需要進行太多的分離，並且我們開發了一種獨特的工藝，可以非常高效地分離設備。

So it allows us to access waste more readily and at a much lower cost because it's lower value when it hasn't been separated. So that's one of the big pluses of the scale and integration that we benefit from here. Not to mention, our CapEx will be probably 10% less with some of the assets what we use here. And so I think that's important and a real advantage. It still takes a lot of work, and we've been devoting the last 18 months in securing a wide range of sources.

因此，它使我們能夠更輕鬆地以更低的成本獲取廢物，因為未經分離的廢物價值較低。這是我們受益於規模化和一體化的一大優勢。更不用說，使用我們在這裡使用的一些資產，我們的資本支出可能會減少10%。所以我認為這很重要，也是一個真正的優勢。這仍然需要大量工作，過去18個月我們一直在努力尋找廣泛的資源。

The other long-term interesting opportunity that's going to come out of this, a lot of our customers, the big brands, both in textiles on the CRT as well as polyester on a variety of end markets are very interested in a take back program, right? So they want to truly have a circular loop where we go material to material. If they take back used products for them -- from their customers and can send it to us and then we can recycle it back into materials for their products.

由此帶來的另一個長期而有趣的機會是，我們的許多客戶，包括CRT紡織品和各種終端市場的聚酯纖維等大品牌，都對回收計劃非常感興趣，對吧？所以他們希望真正實現一個循環，讓我們從材料到材料。如果他們從客戶那裡回收舊產品，然後寄給我們，我們可以將其回收利用，製成他們產品的材料。

So it's a true absolute closed loop. And so it will take a while for that to obviously develop, but I think for a number of brands, it's incredibly important. Patagonia is a great example, where they've been doing this for a while and fully endorsing molecular recycling as the only way they can actually close the loop. And you'll see some number of other customers making similar announcements.

所以這是一個真正的絕對閉環。顯然，這需要一段時間才能實現，但我認為對許多品牌來說，這至關重要。 Patagonia 就是一個很好的例子，他們已經這樣做了一段時間，並完全認可分子回收是他們真正實現閉環的唯一途徑。你會看到其他一些客戶也宣布類似的措施。

So it sounds like -- I mean, a lot of the press release talked about the PRT side of things, but it sounds like you were also going to do the carbonylation kind of gasification of the fiber or the waste stream as well directly into the gasifier. Did I read that correct? Or is it really just the PRT that you're going to be pursuing?

所以聽起來——我的意思是，很多新聞稿都在談論PRT（高效反應器）方面，但聽起來你也打算將纖維或廢料流直接送入氣化爐進行羰基化氣化。我理解得對嗎？還是你真的只是打算進行PRT？

No, no, we're commercial in both now. So we're doing both now. We've just talked a lot about the CRT, which we call the carbon renewal technology. And basically, we're changing our technology, if you will, from gasification to reforming when you go from sort of coal to waste plastic and replacing that coal with the waste plastic with a carbon footprint that's sort of 20% to 50% lower. So it's a very compelling technology.

不，不，我們現在兩種技術都已經商業化了。所以我們現在都在做。我們剛剛談了很多關於CRT，我們稱之為碳再生技術。基本上，我們正​​在改變我們的技術，從氣化到重整，也就是把煤炭轉化為廢塑料，再用廢塑料取代煤炭，這樣碳足跡可以降低20%到50%。所以這是一項非常有吸引力的技術。

That goes into our textiles, our Naia fabrics that we're growing quite strongly as well as into some thermoplastics in the specialty plastics business and a new growth opportunity we see in AFP around foamed insulation that would be cellulosic based and very sustainable offering versus EPA. So a lot of different applications in CRT going on at the same level. That's part of that $500 million to $1 billion platform combined with the PRT. So a lot going on.

這涉及到我們的紡織品、增長強勁的Naia面料，以及特種塑料業務中的一些熱塑性塑料，以及我們在AFP領域看到的新的增長機會，即基於纖維素的泡沫絕緣材料，與EPA相比，它具有更高的可持續性。因此，CRT領域有許多不同的應用正在同步發展。這是5億到10億美元平台與PRT平台結合的一部分。所以，有很多事情正在進行中。

We will now take our next question from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

我們現在將回答德意志銀行的 David Begleiter 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, on the '21 guidance, could you walk through the earnings bridge from '20 to '21? That would be helpful.

馬克，關於21年的業績指引，您能否介紹一下2020年到2121年的獲利情況？這將會很有幫助。

Sure. So I'd start with, as we said, what is it that we can control. Our fixed costs, as we said, are going to be neutral in '21 relative to '20. So we took $150 million out that were sort of temporary cost actions through last year. Many of those costs are coming back, especially on the operations. We're running our plants incredibly hard as we're trying to serve the demand that we've seen in the fourth quarter, and it's increasing in January. So that -- those costs are obviously coming back.

當然。所以，正如我們所說，我首先要問的是，哪些是我們能夠控制的。我們之前說過，2021年的固定成本相對於2020年將維持中性。所以我們去年拿出了1.5億美元，作為臨時成本控制措施。其中許多成本正在回升，尤其是在營運方面。我們正在非常努力地營運工廠，努力滿足第四季度的需求，而1月份的需求還在增加。所以，這些成本顯然正在回升。

But there's still a lot of other costs of efficiency and structural costs or travel with COVID that is not going to come back, certainly not in the first quarter, but we would expect to start coming back through the year. So cost relatively flat on the fixed basis. As Willie just mentioned in a prior answer, you've got this $100 million utilization tailwind just at 2020 volumes without volumes being greater than last year. I mean that's about -- so put all that together, that's $0.60 a share in just the sort of cost utilization side of things before you get the volume growth.

但是，還有很多其他成本，例如效率成本、結構性成本或新冠疫情期間的差旅成本，這些成本不會回落，至少在第一季不會，但我們預計全年都會開始回落。因此，成本在固定基礎上相對持平。正如威利在先前的回答中提到的，僅在2020年的產量上，你就獲得了1億美元的利用率順風，而產量並沒有超過去年。我的意思是，把所有這些加在一起，在產量成長之前，成本利用率方面每股收益約為0.60美元。

And then we've got volume growth in 3 categories. The first just being market recovery as we're seeing in the fourth quarter and January. And so that is -- we're presuming is going to continue through the rest of this year that the economy continues to recover and that COVID's not going to have some big negative impact. The second is innovation, creating our own growth, right? So a lot of growth that we had last year wasn't just what markets did, but how we created our own growth.

然後，我們的銷售成長體現在三個方面。首先是市場復甦，正如我們在第四季和一月所看到的。因此，我們預計，如果經濟持續復甦，新冠疫情不會造成重大負面影響，這種復甦將持續到今年剩餘時間。其次是創新，創造我們自身的成長，對吧？所以，我們去年取得的許多成長不僅僅是市場推動的，也是我們自身創造成長的方式。

We had phenomenal success in performance films in a very down auto market for the year, yet their revenue was basically flat for the year, where they had strong growth year-over-year in the fourth quarter. And so that's a great example of innovation creating growth. Great success in acoustics and heads-up display creating growth in interlayers, Tritan delivering a lot of growth where specialty plastics actually grew earnings in total for 2020 over 2019. So a lot of things going well on the innovation side and a lot of traction developing in AFP like animal nutrition. So a lot of innovation.

在汽車市場低迷的背景下，我們在高性能薄膜領域取得了非凡的成功，但其收入全年基本持平，而第四季度同比增長強勁。這充分體現了創新創造成長的理念。聲學和平視顯示器領域的巨大成功推動了中間膜業務的成長，Tritan 也實現了大幅成長，特種塑膠業務 2020 年的總收益實際上比 2019 年有所增長。創新方面有許多進展順利，法新社（AFP）的動物營養事業也取得了長足的發展。創新成果豐碩。

It's important to remember that both of the markets that are coming back are high-value mix, like automotive and as well as the innovation having much higher margins than segment average. So there's a huge mix upgrade impact that isn't just about '19 to '20, but it goes all the way back to '18 when you think about -- first, we had a trade war that really hit some high-value markets for us and impacted earnings. Then we piled on a pandemic, and we see us recovering back to '19 volumes and mix and hopefully better than that. So that all helps.

重要的是要記住，兩個正在復甦的市場都是高價值組合，例如汽車市場和創新市場，其利潤率遠高於細分市場平均水平。因此，巨大的組合升級影響不僅限於2019年到2020年，甚至可以追溯到2018年——首先，我們經歷了一場貿易戰，這嚴重打擊了我們的一些高價值市場，並影響了盈利。然後，我們又遭遇了一場疫情，我們看到我們的銷售和組合正在恢復到2019年的水平，並且有望比那時更好。所以這一切都很有幫助。

There are some headwinds. Obviously, aviation is not recovering as well this year. And so that's still going to be probably a $30 million headwind in earnings relative to '19. And then we expect raw materials to go up, and there's some lag always in the specialties in catching up to raws. And we have the competitive pressure we've called out in tires and adhesives and acetyls. So a variety of different things going on there. But when you net it all out, it's a very attractive recovery in earnings.

有一些不利因素。顯然，航空業今年復甦乏力。因此，與2019年相比，這仍可能對獲利造成3,000萬美元的不利影響。此外，我們預期原物料價格會上漲，而特種化學品在追趕原料方面總是會有一些滯後。此外，我們在輪胎、黏合劑和乙醯基領域也面臨著我們先前提到的競爭壓力。因此，這些領域正在發生各種各樣的變化。但綜合考慮所有這些因素，獲利復甦的勢頭非常誘人。

I do want to emphasize though that 20%, 30% range is a genuine range. There is a lot of uncertainty. So while it's great to have growth in January, great to have the recovery in the fourth quarter, it's January. We've learned this lesson in '19 and '20 about what can happen through a year. And while we remain optimistic that these trends will continue we really don't know the impact of COVID and how it's going to impact the economies yet this year.

不過，我確實想強調，20%、30% 的區間是真的。不確定性很大。所以，雖然一月經濟成長、第四季復甦固然很好，但畢竟只是一月。我們在 2019 年和 2020 年吸取了教訓，知道一年中可能發生的情況。雖然我們仍然樂觀地認為這些趨勢將持續下去，但我們真的不知道新冠疫情的影響，也不知道它今年將如何影響經濟。

We certainly are seeing operational limitations about how demand is recovering, especially in logistics and getting products to our customers. So that's limiting us a bit here, certainly in the first quarter. And so there's just those things and factors you have to keep in mind when you think about this range. And I think it's reasonable to be a bit cautious as you start the year in this range, and we build the success through the year.

我們確實看到了需求復甦的營運限制，尤其是在物流和將產品送達客戶方面。這在一定程度上限制了我們，尤其是在第一季。所以，在考慮這個範圍時，你必須牢記這些因素。我認為，在以這個範圍開始新的一年並在未來一年取得成功時，謹慎一些是合理的。

Got it. And Willie, just on the free cash flow guidance, can you walk through some of the components there? I assume we'll see a fairly big build in working capital in 2021.

明白了。威利，關於自由現金流指引，您能具體介紹一下其中的一些組成部分嗎？我估計2021年營運資本會大幅增加。

Well, we've got a pretty simple bridge, David, for free cash flow, the '20. And actually, it doesn't include a big build on the working capital front. As I think through this, let me start at a high level, which is we expect cash earnings that's consistent with the 20% to 30% that Mark just walked you through. And also as business activity does pick up on the inventory front, we believe that we can offset that.

大衛，我們對於自由現金流，也就是2020年，有一個相當簡單的過渡期。實際上，它並不包括營運資本的大幅成長。在我思考這個問題的時候，讓我先從宏觀層面說起，我們預期現金收益將與馬克剛才提到的20%到30%的成長保持一致。而且，隨著庫存方面的業務活動回暖，我們相信我們可以抵消這一影響。

And what I would highlight is, as part of our transformational efforts, we're investing in advanced integrated business planning processes to enable us to keep the DQO on the inventory side intact and maintain the gains that we've been able to accomplish. And also, we continue to have our programs in AR and accounts payable to offset and continue to make progress on that front. So our base assumption is that working capital will be neutral in 2021. Even in an economic environment, that has momentum.

我想強調的是，作為我們轉型努力的一部分，我們正在投資先進的整合業務規劃流程，以使我們能夠保持庫存方面的DQO（業務品質），並維持我們已實現的收益。此外，我們將繼續執行應收帳款和應付帳款抵銷計劃，並在這方面繼續取得進展。因此，我們的基本假設是，2021年營運資本將維持中立。即使在經濟環境下，這仍具有成長動能。

On the capital front, we do expect in 2021 that CapEx will be $500 million to $525 million. So at least $100 million to $125 million greater than prior year. And obviously, we expect to more than offset that with the cash earnings. So all in all, we've, I think, developed a track record that demonstrates that we can maintain cash flows greater than $1 billion in basically about any environment. And our long-term focus is to continue to grow that and not just be at greater than $1 billion. But one, I'd also like to recognize how the Eastman team stepped up in 2020 to deliver that $1.1 billion of free cash flow. It took everyone and it took focus, and the team delivered.

在資本方面，我們預計2021年的資本支出將達到5億至5.25億美元，比前一年增加至少1億至1.25億美元。顯然，我們預期現金收益將足以抵銷這部分支出。總而言之，我認為我們已經累積了良好的業績記錄，證明我們幾乎在任何環境下都能維持超過10億美元的現金流。我們的長期目標是繼續保持這一成長，而不僅僅是超過10億美元。首先，我還想表揚一下伊士曼團隊在2020年是如何努力實現11億美元自由現金流的。這需要每個人的共同努力和專注，最終團隊做到了。

We will now take our next question from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners.

我們現在將回答來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy 的下一個問題。

Mark, I heard the comments regarding volume growth. You talked about market recovery and innovation, and it sounds like mix is going to be important as well. But is there a way you can help us better understand the level of volume growth that's embedded in your EPS guidance, looks like in the pandemic year, went down 5%. How should we think about the high end and the low end, whether it's an absolute level or relative to GDP or another macro metric? How would you have us process that?

馬克，我聽到了關於銷量成長的評論。您談到了市場復甦和創新，聽起來產品組合也很重要。但是，您能否幫助我們更能理解您每股盈餘指引中所包含的銷售成長水準？疫情那年，銷量成長似乎下降了5%。我們該如何看待銷量成長的高端和低端？無論是絕對水平，還是相對於GDP或其他宏觀指標？您希望我們如何處理這個問題？

Kevin, from a kg point of view, I think you would think about our volume recoveries being similar to GDP, and then you get some leverage from mix. So as you look at this, you've got a variety of markets that are sort of still recovering relative to '20 that are going to have volumes up in a meaningful way like transportation or autos to be specific, not aviation. Even though aviation will be better this year, but not by much. So you've got markets like that, that are recovering. Textiles, we expect a very strong recovery. And so those will continue to drive value. And those are all very high value relative to corporate average when it comes to variable margins.

凱文，從公斤的角度來看，我認為你會認為我們的銷售復甦與GDP相似，然後你會從組合中獲得一些槓桿。所以，從這個角度來看，你會發現很多市場相對於2020年仍在復甦，銷售量將顯著成長，例如交通運輸或汽車產業，而不是航空業。雖然今年航空業的情況會好轉，但幅度不會太大。所以，像這樣的市場正在復甦。我們預計紡織業將出現非常強勁的復甦。因此，這些市場將繼續推動價值成長。就可變利潤率而言，這些市場的價值相對於企業平均值都非常高。

And then you've got other markets that are not going to grow as fast because they were really strong last year, like packaging and some hygiene applications and care chemicals. We still see them probably growing as opposed to going backward, but not by much, given the strength they had last year. So you can't sort of trade all markets the same way, obviously, as we look at all these different parts of our portfolio. But what's nice is the stability you get from this, right?

然後，還有一些市場由於去年表現強勁，成長速度不會那麼快，例如包裝、一些衛生應用和護理化學品。我們仍然認為這些市場可能仍在成長，而不是倒退，但考慮到它們去年的強勁表現，跌幅不會太大。所以，顯然，當我們審視投資組合中所有這些不同的部分時，你不能用同樣的方式交易所有市場。但這樣做的好處是，你能從中獲得穩定性，對吧？

So these resilient markets that we were in provided a great stabilizer to the headwinds we saw in automotive last year, where our volume mix, as you noted, was only down 5%, which was quite good for our industry and quite stable because of all these different resilient end markets. And now this year, you're going to sort of have the reverse of that of some of these high-value markets that were impacted last year are going to do much better. And these resilient markets are not going to be a big driver of growth. So it's hard to give you a specific number because a lot of it anyhow that's driving the earnings is mix versus kgs, and I don't want to get into the breakdown of that.

因此，我們所處的這些富有韌性的市場，為我們去年在汽車產業遇到的逆風提供了強大的穩定器。正如您所說，我們的銷售組合僅下降了5%，這對我們行業來說相當不錯，而且由於所有這些不同的富有韌性的終端市場，市場表現也相當穩定。而今年，我們會看到一些與去年受影響的高價值市場截然相反的情況，它們的表現會好得多。這些富有韌性的市場不會成為成長的主要驅動力。因此，很難給出一個具體的數字，因為無論如何，推動獲利成長的很大一部分因素是產品組合而非公斤，我不想對此進行細分。

Okay. Second question I had related to methanolysis. My understanding is that you can use different sorts of waste streams such as old PET bottle resin and maybe polyester from carpet and so on. And so my question is what testing have you done already regarding the issue of variability of waste streams? And does it matter? In other words, if I'm unzipping it, as you say, into ethylene glycol and DMT, is it the case that the output is entirely fungible and the variability is a nonissue? Or do you have to go through customer approval processes, et cetera, as you implement the new process?

好的。我的第二個問題與甲醇分解有關。我的理解是，可以使用不同類型的廢料，例如舊PET瓶樹脂，或是地毯上的聚酯纖維等等。所以我的問題是，關於廢料的可變性問題，你們做過哪些測試？這重要嗎？換句話說，如果我像你說的那樣，將其分解成乙二醇和DMT，那麼產出是否完全可替代，且可變性不成問題？或者，在實施新製程時，是否需要經過客戶審核等等？

Sure. So let me sort of break this down into the operations part and then, as you just said, the customer qualification part. So the technology, methanolysis, is a pretty robust technology, and methanolysis as a process is not exactly novel. But when Kodak developed this process a long time ago, as I mentioned, when they switched from using a very consistent stream of polyester x-ray films to municipal waste, they discovered that it is challenging to manage a diverse waste stream that also can vary day-to-day based on the mix of plastic you're getting in there.

當然。那麼，讓我把它分解成營運部分，然後，正如你剛才所說，是客戶認證部分。甲醇分解這項技術是一項相當強大的技術，而且甲醇分解作為一種製程並不是什麼新鮮事。但正如我所提到的，當柯達很久以前開發這項工藝時，他們從使用非常穩定的聚酯X射線膠片流轉向處理城市垃圾，他們發現管理多樣化的垃圾流是一項挑戰，而且這些垃圾流每天都會根據所處理的塑膠成分而變化。

And what's great about this technology is it does not compete with mechanical recycling, right? So mechanical recycling, where you can do it, is a better answer. It has a very low carbon footprint, but it's restricted to only using very clean feedstock. And most of what they do very clean and clear feedstock from bottles is really what they can handle. And even then they have problems with limitations to some degree on performance and the polymer degrades over time. So there's a limitation to how long you can mechanically recycle plastic, period.

這項技術的優點是它不會與機械回收競爭，對吧？所以，在可行的情況下，機械回收是更好的解決方案。它的碳足跡非常低，但僅限於使用非常乾淨的原料。而他們所能處理的，大多是來自瓶子的非常乾淨、純淨的原料。即便如此，它們的性能也存在一定限制，而且聚合物會隨著時間的推移而降解。所以，機械回收塑膠的時間是有限制的，就是這樣。

So molecular recycling like methanolysis is essential as a complement to mechanical with the feed -- with the raw material, the plastic, that they cannot use, it ends up in landfill and giving infinite life to plastic because we can constantly recycle this plastic with no degradation. So the key, though, is you have to have a lot of operating experience on how to manage this process. And it's not the methanolysis stuff that's hard. It's the purification stuff that you just got at, Kevin, that requires a lot of capability experience and a lot of trade secrets that we've developed over the years on how to do this to make sure that the intermediates that come out of the plant are purified and basically identical to the ones based on fossil fuel.

因此，像甲醇分解這樣的分子回收技術對於機械處理至關重要——原材料，也就是那些無法利用的塑料，最終會被填埋，這賦予了塑料無限的使用壽命，因為我們可以不斷回收這些塑料而不會發生降解。所以，關鍵在於你必須擁有豐富的操作經驗來管理這個過程。而甲醇分解本身並不難。凱文，困難的是剛才你提到的淨化過程，這需要大量的實踐經驗和我們多年來積累的商業秘密，以確保從工廠出來的中間體經過淨化，並且與基於化石燃料的中間體基本相同。

So when we get to making the polymer, the polymer is exactly the same. There is no profile or impurities that is an issue. And that's what's so great about customer qualification is that they don't have to -- they have to wrap their head around that it's the same, and that's tough for them to buy into given the process. But once we sort of walk them through the technical details, the great thing is they don't have to change molds or process conditions or anything else. They can just suddenly have recyclable content in their product because it is literally identical. It has the same quality, same performance, won't degrade over time in the recycle loop. So that's what's so compelling about this technology is it really is a long-term infinite solution, much more similar to aluminum.

所以，當我們開始生產聚合物時，聚合物是完全相同的。不存在任何形狀或雜質的問題。客戶認證的優點在於，他們無需費心去確認它們是相同的，而考慮到工藝流程，這一點很難讓他們接受。但一旦我們向他們講解了技術細節，好處是他們不需要更改模具、工藝條件或其他任何因素。他們可以在產品中立即使用可回收材料，因為它們完全相同。它們具有相同的品質、相同的性能，並且在回收過程中不會隨著時間的推移而降解。這項技術如此引人注目的原因在於，它確實是一個長期的、無限的解決方案，與鋁更相似。

We will now take our next question from Mike Sison from Wells Fargo.

我們現在將回答富國銀行的麥克·西森提出的下一個問題。

Nice end of the year there. One quick follow-up on the methanolysis facility. Are you going to be able to brand it like Tritan, meaning is there going to be a sort of a name or a labeling where a customer can sort of showcase that it's used from recycling material, and if I wanted to go to Amazon or something and search for it, it would pop up?

年底了，感覺不錯。關於甲醇分解設施，我想快速跟進。你們能像Tritan那樣給它打上品牌標誌嗎？也就是說，會不會有某種名稱或標籤，讓顧客知道它是用回收材料製成的，這樣如果我想去亞馬遜之類的網站上搜索，就能彈出來。

Yes, you can. We've tried to keep our core product brand names and add a recycled name to it. So Tritan Renew is actually the formal brand name, Mike. There will be Naia Renew in textiles and a series of other products. For cosmetic packaging, that'll be Cristal Renew, et cetera. And those signify that there's recycled content in it. Nalgene and CamelBak are marketing it that way already. So you can go look at those products. But, I think it's important that we get some sort of identification of it. Every customer is different. Some customers -- a lot of customers switch to our product and don't declare what it is. So it will be a mixed bag depending on how customers want to manage their marketing position on a shelf. We don't mandate a certain approach.

是的，可以。我們一直努力保留核心產品的品牌名稱，並添加一個可回收的名稱。所以，Tritan Renew 實際上是正式的品牌名稱，Mike。紡織品和其他一系列產品中會使用 Naia Renew。化妝品包裝則會使用 Cristal Renew 等等。這些都顯示產品中含有可回收成分。 Nalgene 和 CamelBak 已經在用這種方式行銷了。所以你可以去看看這些產品。但我認為，重要的是我們要對產品進行某種標示。每個客戶的情況都不一樣。有些客戶——很多客戶——會轉而使用我們的產品，卻不聲明產品成分。所以，最終效果會有所不同，這取決於客戶希望如何管理他們在貨架上的行銷位置。我們不會強制採用某種方法。

Got it. And then just in terms of Tritan overall, it does seem like the fundamental demand or growth rate for that business has gapped up over the last couple of years. Can you maybe give us a sense of what you think this business can grow over the next 3 to 5 years? And then when will you need to add some capacity to meet that growth?

明白了。就Tritan整體而言，在過去幾年裡，該業務的基本需求或成長率似乎確實出現了缺口。您能否談談您認為未來3到5年該業務的成長潛力？什麼時候需要增加產能來滿足這種成長？

Yes. So Tritan has been a phenomenal success story over a decade now, right? It's just a business that has continually delivered strong performance and growth in a wide range of applications. It started out with hydration, where we have these reusable water bottles replacing single-use plastics. So one of the great things about our recycled content is it's going into durable products predominantly.

是的。所以Tritan在過去十多年裡取得了非凡的成功，對吧？它是一家在廣泛應用領域持續保持強勁業績和成長的企業。它最初是用於水合物領域，我們用可重複使用的水瓶取代了一次性塑膠。因此，我們回收材料的一大優點在於，它主要應用於耐用產品。

We got out of PET a long time ago. So I'm not trying to defend the PET business. I'm actually taking single-use plastic, I'm taking carpet, I'm taking textiles, a very wide range of supply on the raw materials and then turning them into durable products predominantly. And so it goes into a lot of consumer durable appliances, et cetera. We're now going into toys in a variety of different applications. So it's positioned in a lot of markets that already care about being BPA free and products being safe.

我們很久以前就退出PET市場了。所以我不是想為PET業務辯護。實際上，我們經營的是一次性塑膠、地毯、紡織品等各種原材料，然後主要將它們加工成耐用產品。因此，這些原材料被用於許多耐用消費品等等。現在，我們又涉足了各種用途的玩具領域。因此，我們的定位是面向許多已經注重不含BPA和產品安全性的市場。

As one of our drivers, the performance is far superior to the competing plastics and its durability and resilience and how it holds up over time. And now we got recycled content that we can add in it. That just gives us one more level of differentiation. So we have a long runway of very attractive growth in this business. For when we need to add more capacity, we're still a couple of years out. You have to remember that in '18, we added a significant chunk of capacity in Tritan that we're certainly making progress in filling out, but we still have a few years before we have to add more capacity.

作為我們的驅動力之一，其性能遠超競爭塑料，包括其耐用性、彈性和持久性。現在，我們可以在其中添加再生材料。這進一步提升了我們的差異化程度。因此，我們在這個行業擁有長期且極具吸引力的成長空間。因為當我們需要增加產能時，我們還需要幾年的時間。要知道，在2018年，我們增加了Tritan的相當一部分產能，目前我們確實正在逐步填補產能空缺，但我們還需要幾年的時間才能增加更多產能。

We will now take our next question from Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

我們現在來回答來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch 提出的下一個問題。

You called out the biggest source of upside for the fourth quarter came from transportation ex aerospace. And obviously, you're continuing to see some issues on the tire additive side. So I was wondering if you could offer a little more granularity on how that played out for you with your various products, how it's starting out this year and what's your expectations as we progress through '21?

您指出，第四季最大的成長動力來自運輸業（不包括航空航太）。顯然，輪胎添加劑方面仍存在一些問題。所以，我想請您更詳細地介紹一下，這些問題對您的各種產品的影響如何，今年的開局如何，以及您對21年有何預期？

You're talking about automotive, just to be clear?

您說的是汽車，能說清楚點嗎？

Correct. Correct.

正確。正確。

Yes. So automotive, which I'll roll tires into as well, I mean, demand came back strongly across the automotive space, whether it's our interlayers, performance films logging in significant record earnings in the fourth quarter or tires demand actually coming back quite strongly in the third and fourth quarter. So demand's come back across the board in that sector as you can see from a lot of external reports.

是的。汽車產業（我也會談到輪胎）的需求強勁回升，無論是我們的中間膜、高性能薄膜在第四季度創下了創紀錄的盈利，還是輪胎需求在第三季度和第四季度強勁回升。所以，正如您從許多外部報告中看到的那樣，該行業的需求全面回升。

We're advantaged that a lot of our products go into the luxury market, especially in Advanced Materials. So we benefited from that market, frankly, holding up a bit better last year than the overall market did and how that's continuing to accelerate for us. And then you've got accelerated growth with acoustics and heads-up display doing really well.

我們的優勢在於，我們的許多產品都進入了高端市場，尤其是在先進材料領域。坦白說，我們從這個市場受益匪淺，去年我們的表現比整體市場略好一些，而且這個市場還在持續加速成長。此外，聲學和平視顯示器業務也實現了加速成長，表現非常出色。

Our new next-gen paint protection film and performance films doing incredibly well, a service channel strategy that allowed us to grow a lot of market share in China this year -- or I should say, in '20. I mean that's going to continue to provide growth. So it is a real combination of market and innovation and service model that's driving a lot of that growth. And you know that the margins of these businesses are above segment average and above company average. So you get a lot of mix lift when these things sort of come back.

我們的新一代漆面保護膜和高性能膜表現非常出色，服務通路策略也讓我們在今年——或者應該說在2020年——在中國的市場份額大幅增長。我的意思是，這將繼續帶來成長。所以，市場、創新和服務模式的真正結合才是推動成長的主要動力。而這些業務的利潤率高於細分市場平均水平，也高於公司平均水平。所以，當這些業務復甦時，我們的產品組合將會獲得巨大的提升。

We've been saying that the volume and mix hit that we took in '19 relative to '18 and '20 versus '19 has a mirror image when it starts coming back, and you start to see that in the fourth quarter, and we'll continue to see it now. I will note, though, that demand is exceptionally strong across the auto supply chain. And so we are running into logistics constraints and capacity limits and serving all of it. So we're still happy to serve as much as we are, but it's a bit challenging out there on the logistics front right now for a lot of products.

我們一直在說，2019年相對於2018年和2020年，銷量和產品組合受到的衝擊在復甦時會呈現出鏡像效應，這種情況在第四季度就已開始顯現，而且現在還會持續下去。不過，我要指出的是，整個汽車供應鏈的需求異常強勁。因此，我們面臨物流限制和運能限制，需要為所有產品提供服務。因此，我們仍然樂意提供盡可能多的服務，但目前在物流方面，許多產品都面臨一些挑戰。

Got you. Got you. Very helpful. And if I could ask about AFP, it was really interesting to read about the retinal sunflowerate, and I was wondering where I could get some of that at some point. I know Greg uses it because he looks fantastic.

明白了！明白了！非常有幫助。另外，我想問AFP的事，讀到視網膜葵花籽油的文章真的很有趣，我一直在想以後能在哪裡買到。我知道格雷格用它，因為他看起來棒極了。

He certainly needs to.

他當然需要。

Yes. Where -- so you continue to call out 1/3 of the business that's challenged. Where do you stand on the strategic review? And what your -- what do you think your ability is to execute something in '21?

是的。所以你繼續指出三分之一的業務面臨挑戰。你對戰略評估持什麼態度？你認為你在2021年執行某項任務的能力如何？

Thanks for the question, Frank. First, I'd say the pandemic has accelerated some of the issues that we're facing in the 1/3, particularly as we highlighted in the first half of the year in tire additives. Also, I'd say the environment has made it more challenging to, I'll call it, complete some of the alternatives that we're considering for the businesses. But we're committed to addressing the performance. We've announced that we're shutting down one of the tire additives facilities. And you can expect us to continue to look at the footprint of tire additives, adhesives and also the contract structures within those businesses.

謝謝你的提問，弗蘭克。首先，我想說，疫情加速了我們在三分之一業務中面臨的一些問題，尤其是我們在今年上半年強調的輪胎添加劑業務。此外，我認為當前的環境使得我們為這些業務考慮的一些替代方案的實施變得更具挑戰性。但我們致力於提升業績。我們已經宣布將關閉其中一個輪胎添加劑工廠。您可以期待我們繼續關注輪胎添加劑、黏合劑的足跡以及這些業務的合約結構。

And considering the types of actions that make sense, it could also include joint ventures and divestitures that we've highlighted in addition to just transforming within the Eastman portfolio. We continue to work on reducing the cost without sacrificing also some of the innovation. We continue to make progress in the transition to, I'll call it, the Crystex Cure Pro next generation. And we're also very active here on all the options as we start 2021, and we'll update you when we make progress on that.

考慮到合理的行動類型，除了伊士曼產品組合內部的轉型之外，還可能包括我們先前強調的合資企業和資產剝離。我們將繼續致力於降低成本，同時不犧牲部分創新。我們在向下一代產品（我稱之為 Crystex Cure Pro）的過渡方面繼續取得進展。在2021年伊始，我們也積極地探討所有方案，一旦取得進展，我們將及時向大家通報。

We will now take our next question from Bob Koort from Goldman Sachs.

我們現在將回答高盛的 Bob Koort 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, I was hoping you could answer a question I get and fumble when my clients ask me, and that is, what is the trends in propylene and refinery grade propylene mean to your business from a profit or advantage or disadvantage standpoint relative to your competition?

馬克，我希望你能回答客戶問我的一個問題，這個問題我經常遇到，而且總是搞不清楚，那就是，相對於你的競爭對手，從利潤、優勢或劣勢的角度來看，丙烯和煉油級丙烯的趨勢對你的業務意味著什麼？

So Bob, from what we see, demand is strong across many of the end markets. And I think also you're probably referencing what we've seen here in the near term of propylene, I'll call it, surging and increasing, I think it was roughly $0.12. Fundamentally, we're happy to have propylene rising with -- driven by demand and some of the outages. Refineries are running at lower rates, and it's unclear how long this is going to last. Also, some of the feedstocks have risen. But spreads have moved back to more normal levels, but they're not fully back to 2018 types of levels.

鮑勃，據我們了解，許多終端市場的需求都很強勁。我想你可能也參考了我們近期看到的丙烯價格飆升的情況，我認為當時的價格大約是0.12美元。從根本上講，我們很高興看到丙烯價格上漲——這主要受需求和部分停產的影響。煉油廠的開工率較低，目前還不清楚這種情況會持續多久。此外，一些原料的價格有所上漲。但價差已回落至更正常的水平，但尚未完全回到2018年的水平。

Also, as we said in the past, we're not in the olefins forecasting business. But again, the spreads that we've seen with our transition to RGP and PGP, those margins are very strong right now as well. The big spikes can be tricky for our chemical intermediates business to manage, but they're reacting quickly to those market dynamics. And again, we see upside, at least in the olefin and derivative margins, compared to 2020.

另外，正如我們過去所說，我們不從事烯烴預測業務。但同樣，隨著我們向RGP和PGP轉型，我們看到了價差，這些利潤率目前也非常高。對於我們的化學中間體業務來說，應對大幅上漲可能比較棘手，但他們正在對這些市場動態做出快速反應。而且，與2020年相比，我們再次看到了上漲空間，至少在烯烴和衍生性商品利潤率方面是如此。

So Willie, is the cliff notes then that if the raw material inflation is demand based, then you're okay with that because it allows you to pass it through and more easily?

那麼威利，關鍵在於，如果原物料通膨是基於需求的，那麼你就可以接受這一點，因為它可以讓你更輕鬆地度過難關？

Yes, that's correct, Bob.

是的，沒錯，鮑伯。

Got it. And then, Mark, I'm sure it's refreshing to not have to talk about olefins and those things and talk about next-generation technology. Is there any way -- I mean, look at the number of questions on the call about it. Is there any way to ring-fence it and then put it into a SPAC at a sales multiple that drives your earnings multiples? Is -- conceptually, could you do it?

明白了。然後，馬克，我相信不用再討論烯烴之類的東西，而是討論下一代技術，這讓人耳目一新。有什麼辦法嗎——我的意思是，看看電話會議上關於它的問題數量。有什麼辦法可以先把這些資產圈起來，然後以便能推動獲利倍數的銷售倍數，放入SPAC？從概念上講，你能做到嗎？

We can just change our name to GameStop. Not really, Bob. I mean I think there's -- I think what we're doing is dramatically changing the portfolio of this company to -- I know it's a trend that everyone's saying this right now, but genuinely be more of an ESG play. When you look at -- for the last decade, we've been launching a wide range of products that are sustainable and much better for the environment across our portfolio.

我們可以把公司名字改成 GameStop。鮑勃，其實不行。我的意思是，我認為我們正在做的是大幅改變公司的投資組合——我知道現在大家都在說這個趨勢，但真正要做的是更注重 ESG。你看看——過去十年，我們一直在整個投資組合中推出一系列可持續、對環境更有利的產品。

And now you add on the circular economy and what we can do and how we could scale this up through partnerships, I think we can really pivot the nature of who we are and the significant improvements we can make in our carbon footprint and drive towards that 30% reduction in 2030 is a huge change in our footprint, not to mention where we want to all get by 2050. So I think we are really repositioning the company in a pretty significant way.

現在再加上循環經濟，以及我們能做什麼，以及我們如何透過合作擴大規模，我認為我們可以真正改變我們的本質，顯著改善我們的碳足跡，並努力實現2030年減少30%的目標，這是我們碳足跡的巨大變化，更不用說我們希望到2050年實現的目標了。所以我認為我們正在以相當重要的方式重新定位公司。

But the whole value of what we can do that's so unique and so powerful in the circular economy is leveraging our integration of our site here in Tennessee. We've talked a lot about scale and integration being a huge competitive advantage for us. And a lot of people have thought about that being cost. I've always thought about that being about enabling innovation and growth. And here's another example where this vastly interconnected and complicated infrastructure that we have here is going to be key to differentiating us in doing something that very few other people can do at our economic efficiency.

但我們在循環經濟領域所能做到的如此獨特和強大的全部價值，在於充分利用我們在田納西州的工廠整合優勢。我們多次談到規模和整合對我們而言是巨大的競爭優勢。很多人認為這是成本優勢。而我一直認為這是為了促進創新和成長。還有一個例子，我們這裡擁有的這種高度互聯且複雜的基礎設施將成為我們脫穎而出的關鍵，讓我們能夠以我們的經濟效率完成一些很少人能做到的事情。

I mean we can definitely do methanolysis around the world, but the way we can do it here is going to be uniquely advantaged relative to a stand-alone plant. Both are attractive. This is just really attractive, and the other ones are still going to be more attractive than the 15% ROIC. So no isolating it off in a SPAC, but feel free to buy Eastman as a great environmental play.

我的意思是，我們當然可以在世界各地進行甲醇分解，但在這裡進行甲醇分解的方式相對於獨立工廠來說將具有獨特的優勢。兩者都很有吸引力。這家工廠非常有吸引力，而其他工廠的吸引力仍然比15%的ROIC更大。所以，不要把它孤立在SPAC中，但可以放心購買伊士曼，因為它是一個很棒的環保投資項目。

Our next question is from Aleksey Yefremov from KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

Mark, if you're investing about $250 million of capital in the methanolysis project, your ROIC is about 15%, so let's say, 20% for the sake of the argument. So does this mean this project could contribute somewhere north of $50 million of after-tax cash flow? Is this a fair math?

馬克，如果你在甲醇分解專案上投資約2.5億美元，你的投資報酬率（ROIC）約為15%，所以為了論證方便，我們假設為20%。那麼，這是否意味著這個專案可以貢獻超過5000萬美元的稅後現金流？這個計算合理嗎？

No. Alex, this is Willie. And yes, your math is correct at the 20% levels. So to your point, we're focused on...

不，亞歷克斯，我是威利。是的，你的計算在20%的水平上是正確的。所以，正如你所說，我們關注的是…

Yes. I would emphasize the ROIC in this one as unique compared to normal specialty investments because we can load the plant so fast. So the payback period is a lot faster for us in this one compared to normal where you're filling out a Tritan plant over time because we can baseload it with PET because we do still have some PET assets left that are dual purpose with our specialty plastics. And so that gives us a lot of leverage in how we gain returns on the economics.

是的。我想強調的是，與普通特種塑膠投資相比，這項投資的投入資本回報率 (ROIC) 非常獨特，因為我們可以快速地將工廠投入使用。因此，相較於通常需要分階段才能完成 Tritan 工廠的常規投資，這項投資的回報期要快得多，因為我們可以以 PET 為基料進行生產，而且我們還有一些 PET 資產，它們可以與我們的特種塑料同時使用。這讓我們在獲取經濟回報方面擁有很大的優勢。

So 20% is not necessarily the limit here is what you're trying to say as well?

所以 20% 不一定是極限，這也是您想說的嗎？

Well, we don't want to get into details, but let's just leave it at that. It's a very attractive investment.

好吧，我們不想談細節，就先這樣吧。這是一項非常有吸引力的投資。

And just as a follow up, you're talking about using 250 million pounds of plastic waste by 2025, 500 million pounds by 2030, should we think about this as lower limit for growth that you're thinking about this business? Or is it most likely scenario? Or is this the upper limit? How high can it go within the next 4 years to 9 years? And just a second part to this question, you were talking about $500 million to $1 billion in sales. Does this correspond to these 2 numbers, 250 million and 500 million?

再問一下，您說到2025年塑膠垃圾使用量將達到2.5億磅，到2030年將達到5億磅。這應該算是您設想的這個產業成長的下限嗎？還是說這是最有可能的情況？又或者說這是上限？未來4到9年內，這個數字可以達到多高？關於這個問題的第二部分，您說的銷售額是5億到10億美元。這和2.5億和5億這兩個數字對應嗎？

Yes. So those are interconnected. So the type of waste plastic we're talking about getting to, if you think about the first methanolysis plant and what we think we're going to do with the CRT, that is what drives us towards that platform revenue value of the $500 million to $1 billion. If we partner with companies around the world to do additional plants, that would be additive to those numbers.

是的。所以這些都是相互關聯的。所以我們討論的廢塑膠類型，如果你考慮第一家甲醇分解工廠，以及我們計劃用CRT做什麼，這就是推動我們實現5億到10億美元平台收入價值的動力。如果我們與世界各地的公司合作建立更多工廠，這些數字將會進一步增加。

And as far as fill out rate goes, it's a little hard to say. We're highly confident we can sell at the plant in a mix of specialties and packaging. But the rate at which we can upgrade into the specialties -- we're seeing huge customer engagement right now. So we're really excited, but we still have a lot of work to do. I mean the great thing, by the way, is we are using a sort of a high-cost approach to using our existing assets to make recycled content today, right? That's why we're commercial with CamelBak, Nalgene is we do have an alternate process that we're currently using, but it's more expensive, and it's limited capacity.

至於供給率，目前還很難說。我們非常有信心，工廠能夠以混合特種產品和包裝的形式銷售產品。但就我們升級到特種產品的速度而言——目前我們看到了巨大的客戶參與度。所以我們非常興奮，但我們還有很多工作要做。順便說一句，很棒的一點是，我們目前採用一種高成本的方式，利用現有資產來生產再生材料，對吧？這就是為什麼我們與CamelBak和Nalgene進行商業合作，因為我們目前確實在使用替代工藝，但成本更高，而且產能有限。

But -- so it's a way to, if you will, have semi-works to build market momentum adoption that allows us to really hit the ground running when methanolysis comes in line to lower our cost and significantly add our capacity. And the CRT, of course, is already being repurposed. It's a very low CapEx way to switch over to reforming plastic. So that, we just continue to scale up. We got delayed in our progress with our collapse in the textiles market. So we just need to catch up now.

但是——如果你願意的話，這是一種透過半成品來建立市場動能的方法，這樣當甲醇分解技術出現時，我們就能真正迅速投入使用，從而降低成本並顯著提高產能。當然，CRT 已經被重新利用了。這是一種轉換到塑膠重整的低資本支出方法。這樣，我們就可以繼續擴大規模。由於紡織品市場的崩潰，我們的進度被耽擱了。所以我們現在需要迎頭趕上。

We will now take our next question from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

我們現在將回答花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar 提出的下一個問題。

It's Eric Petrie on for P.J. You noted the methanolysis plant has capacity of 150,000 to 200,000 tons of polymer per year. I'm assuming most of that will go into Tritan. So at the fill out point, how much of your Tritan will be renewed versus traditional produce-based?

我是 Eric Petrie，代表 P.J. 為您報道。您提到甲醇分解廠的聚合物年產能為 15 萬至 20 萬噸。我估計其中大部分會用於生產 Tritan。那麼，在最終投產時，您的 Tritan 中有多少是再生料，有多少是傳統產品基底？

We -- first of all, it's not all Tritan. So Tritan, I think, will be one of the big success stories, but it's not limited to that. So we have a lot of copolyesters that go into cosmetic packaging, for example, that has a significant amount of value for that space who are very forward-leaning on the sustainability front, who are very interested in adopting recycled content. So it's across that. There's even some shrink packaging that we may do. And so there's a wide range of products in markets, but it will be a good portion of the Tritan mix, but we're not going to call out that percentage right now.

首先，Tritan 並非全部。我認為 Tritan 將成為一大成功案例，但其成功之處遠不止於此。例如，我們有許多用於化妝品包裝的共聚酯，這對那些在永續發展方面極具前瞻性、對採用再生材料非常感興趣的人而言，具有重大價值。所以，Tritan 的用途非常廣泛。我們甚至可能會推出一些收縮包裝。市面上的產品種類繁多，但 Tritan 的佔比將非常大，但我們現在不會透露具體比例。

Okay. And then secondly, how did volumes for your specialty products grow in fourth quarter? And what was the comp for full year '20? Typically, those end markets grow 2x underlying.

好的。其次，你們的特色產品銷售在第四季成長如何？ 2020年全年的年比數據如何？通常情況下，這些終端市場的銷售量會成長2倍。

Yes. So the whole 2x math gets a little confusing in a COVID crisis on how to actually measure it. But what we -- we've seen -- you've seen tremendous growth and progress and success in the Advanced Materials division, and that's all the specialty products delivering that growth when you look at that volume and mix improvement. When you look at AFP, it's really important to sort of separate out the 2/3 versus the 1/3.

是的。所以，在新冠疫情期間，如何真正衡量整個2倍的計算方法會讓人有點困惑。但我們看到，先進材料部門取得了巨大的成長、進步和成功，而從產量和產品組合的改進來看，正是所有特種產品推動了這種成長。當你觀察先進材料部門時，區分2/3和1/3非常重要。

Obviously, the 2/3 is a lot more stable, margins well above the segment average. And even with the aviation headwind of $30 million this year, we think earnings for the 2/3 will get back to and be slightly better than 2019. And so that business -- coatings is demonstrating a lot of strong growth in market recovery. Care chemicals, water treatment, very strong. Our heat transfer fluid business has been very strong. So we got a lot of great businesses doing well there.

顯然，2/3 業務的利潤率穩定得多，遠高於該細分市場的平均值。即使今年航空業面臨 3000 萬美元的逆風，我們認為 2/3 業務的盈利將恢復到 2019 年的水平，甚至略高於 2019 年。塗料業務在市場復甦中表現出強勁成長。護理化學品和水處理業務也表現強勁。我們的傳熱液業務也一直非常強勁。因此，我們有很多優秀的業務在那裡表現良好。

And that comment, by the way, both on earnings and strong growth goes back to '18. So the stability of that segment and the margins are actually quite good, offset, of course, by what we've identified in the tires and adhesives where we're taking some actions. But overall, the portfolio is -- on the volume side is actually holding up quite well.

順便說一句，關於盈利和強勁增長的評論可以追溯到2018年。因此，該部門的穩定性和利潤率實際上相當不錯，當然，我們正在採取一些行動來彌補輪胎和黏合劑業務的不足。但總體而言，產品組合在銷售方面實際上保持了相當不錯的表現。

We will now take a question from Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital.

我們現在來回答 RBC Capital 的 Arun Viswanathan 提出的問題。

Congratulations on all the progress. I'm just curious, Mark, you guys laid out an 8% to 12% EPS growth rate in the past. I know that '21, obviously, is going to be much above that because of the recovery. But when you look long term and you add in the methanolysis gains, do you see a path to returning to that level structurally longer term or maybe even eclipsing that?

祝賀你們取得的所有進展。馬克，我只是好奇，你們過去曾提出8%到12%的每股盈餘成長率。我知道，由於經濟復甦，2021年的每股盈餘顯然會遠高於這個數字。但從長遠來看，加上甲醇分解帶來的收益，你是否認為有途徑在長期內結構性地回到這個水平，甚至可能超過這個水平？

Well, right now, we're still focused on recovery and getting back to '18 levels, which I do think is a pathway we can see after we get through this year. I think we're already on a strong track with what we've guided for this year. When you think about post recovery, let's say, and I'm not going to try and predict when that is with COVID, we very much would expect to get back to that growth math that we described on at Innovation Day of that 8% to 12%.

目前，我們仍然專注於復甦，並恢復到2018年的水平，我認為這是度過今年後我們能夠看到的路徑。我認為，我們已經按照今年的預期走上了強勁的軌道。說到復甦後，比如說——我不會試圖預測新冠疫情後復甦的具體時間——我們非常有信心能夠恢復到我們在創新日上描述的8%到12%的成長目標。

Obviously, circular economy helps that and drives growth. Obviously, we've had things that haven't worked out as well as we had hoped like, tires and adhesives. So you got to sort of do all that net math, which we're not doing at this stage. But we definitely see the set of activities, the great things that are happening in many parts of the portfolio, a few things that didn't work out as we had hoped allows us to still get back to '18 and grow from there with that math.

顯然，循環經濟有助於實現這一點，並推動成長。當然，我們也有一些項目沒有像預期那樣順利，例如輪胎和黏合劑。所以你必須進行各種淨計算，而我們目前還沒有這樣做。但我們確實看到了一系列活動，看到了投資組合中許多部分正在發生的重大事件，一些沒有像預期那樣順利的項目，這讓我們能夠回到2018年的水平，並憑藉這些計算繼續增長。

And then could you just remind us on the capital allocation side, when you expect to kind of maybe pivot more towards buybacks, if at all?

然後，您能否提醒我們資本配置方面，您預計什麼時候可能會更多地轉向回購？

Yes. So as we think about capital allocation for '21, first and foremost, obviously, we grew our dividend for the 11th year in a row, and we expect to allocate about $375 million there. Also, we've got some debt coming due in Q4, and we would expect currently to pay that debt down. So $300 million of debt reduction. And then also looking through with the remaining cash from a strategic standpoint, we would expect to allocate roughly $350 million between bolt-ons and share repurchases. Obviously, we're going to be, I'll call it, cautious offsetting dilution here in the front half, and we'll see how the economy continues to pick up.

是的。所以，當我們考慮21年的資本配置時，首先也是最重要的，顯然，我們連續第11年增加了股息，我們預計將為此分配約3.75億美元。此外，我們還有一些債務將在第四季到期，我們預計目前將能夠償還這些債務。因此，我們預計會減少3億美元的債務。然後，從策略角度來看，我們預計剩餘現金將在補充資金和股票回購之間分配約3.5億美元。顯然，在上半年，我們將採取謹慎的抵銷稀釋措施，我們將觀察經濟如何持續復甦。

And just to sort of wrap things up, one last thing I wanted to say was I have a deep appreciation to my employees and our leaders throughout the world. The success we had in getting through '20 in a very stable manner compared to many in the industry and to emerge and grow like we intend to do this year is a testament to all the investments we've made in our capabilities.

最後，我想說的是，我衷心感謝我的員工和世界各地的領導。與業內其他公司相比，我們能夠以非常穩定的方式度過2020年，並在今年實現我們預期的復甦和成長，這充分證明了我們在提升自身能力方面所做的所有投資。

I mean we've made a lot of investment in commercial capabilities, a lot of investments in improving our operational cost structure. We've obviously dramatically changed our portfolio and improved its quality and depth of innovation and ability to create its own growth compared to the last recession we faced in 2009/'10.

我的意思是，我們在商業能力方面投入了大量資金，在改善營運成本結構方面也投入了大量資金。與2009/2010年我們面臨的上次經濟衰退相比，我們顯然已經顯著改變了我們的產品組合，提高了其創新的品質和深度，以及創造自身成長的能力。

And we're seeing the payoff of that in the stability we delivered last year and the strong free cash flow and actually quite good earnings, especially if you back out the $100 million of additional inventory actions and feel great about how we're positioned for this year. And so none of that would have happened without the dedication and effort even in the extreme situation of how we had to work in COVID to deliver this. So thank you to all of my employees.

我們看到，這些回報體現在我們去年保持的穩定、強勁的自由現金流以及相當不錯的盈利上，尤其是如果扣除1億美元的額外庫存操作，我們對今年的業績表現感到滿意的話。如果沒有大家的奉獻和努力，即使在新冠疫情這種極端情況下，我們也不可能實現這些目標。感謝我所有的員工。

And with that, we're going to say thank you very much for joining us this morning. And if you have questions, you can reach us through the day. Everybody, have a great day.

最後，非常感謝大家今天早上的參與。如有任何問題，歡迎隨時與我們聯繫。祝大家擁有美好的一天。

Thank you. That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.

謝謝大家。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。女士們，先生們，現在可以掛斷電話了。