伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2021 Eastman Chemical Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. All is being broadcast live on the Eastman's website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化工2021年第二季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。所有會議內容將在伊士曼網站www.eastman.com上進行直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將把電話轉交給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部門的Greg Riddle先生。先生，請講。

Thank you, Christina, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝克里斯蒂娜，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、高級副總裁兼首席財務官威利·麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain) 以及投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Yesterday after market close, we posted our second quarter 2021 financial results news release and the SEC 8-K filing, our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website, www.eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，我們在網站 www.eastman.com 的投資者部分發布了 2021 年第二季度財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件、幻燈片和相關的準備好的評論。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this call, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our second quarter 2021 financial results news release, during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-Q for first quarter 2021 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for second quarter 2021.

在開始之前，我將介紹兩點。首先，在本次電話會議中，您將聽到一些關於我們計劃和預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能會有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在我們2021年第二季度財務業績新聞稿、本次電話會議、之前的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括2021年第一季度的10-Q表和即將提交的2021年第二季度的10-Q表。

Second, earnings referenced in this call exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the second quarter 2021 financial results news release, which is available on our website.

其次，本次電話會議中提及的收益不包括某些非核心及非常規項目。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳及其他相關披露，包括對排除項目和調整後項目的描述，可在 2021 年第二季度財務業績新聞稿中找到，該新聞稿可在我們的網站上查閱。

As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we will now go straight into Q&A. Christina, please let's start with our first question.

由於我們昨晚已在網站上發布了幻燈片和準備好的發言稿，現在我們將直接進入問答環節。克里斯蒂娜，請開始我們的第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go to our first question from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

（操作員指示）我們來回答富國銀行的麥克·西森提出的第一個問題。

Nice quarter. Mark, I guess when you think about the second half of the year, how much of the improved outlook do you think will come from the specialty businesses? And how much of it comes from the -- from intermediates?

季度表現不錯。馬克，我想，當您考慮下半年時，您認為前景改善的程度有多少來自特種產品業務？又有多少來自中間體業務？

Sure. Mike, it's a great day here in Appalachia, beautiful morning. And we're really excited about the results we had in the second quarter. And to your point, really excited about the momentum we're building in our specialties as we go forward into the back half of the year, which will be the driving force for earnings in the back half.

當然。麥克，今天阿巴拉契亞山區天氣真好，早晨真美。我們對第二季的業績感到非常興奮。正如你所說，我們對下半年我們在專業領域所展現出的強勁勢頭感到非常興奮，這將成為下半年盈利的驅動力。

When you think about it, we had strong volume and mix growth in the specialties, especially relative to last year or '19 or even '18, and the progress that we're making. And that momentum will continue into the back half of this year. Now some of that strength in volume and mix growth was offset by sort of temporarily high distribution costs and some of the other supply chain factors that we faced in the second quarter and expect those to abate. So not only do you get the volume and mix growth, you get some improvement in spreads relative to the first half. So that's going to drive a nice improvement for specialties.

仔細想想，我們的特種化學品銷售和產品組合成長強勁，尤其是與去年、2019年甚至2018年相比，以及我們正在取得的進展。這種勢頭將持續到今年下半年。現在，銷售量和產品組合成長的部分優勢被暫時居高不下的分銷成本以及我們在第二季面臨的一些其他供應鏈因素所抵消，預計這些因素將會減弱。因此，我們不僅實現了銷售和產品組合的成長，而且與上半年相比，利差也得到了改善。這將推動特種化學品業務的良好成長。

And I would say that it's going to hold up better, I think, in the fourth quarter than what is normal seasonality as we look at the lack of restocking customers have made to date. And we don't think that they're going to make much progress on it really through this year, and that will extend into next year. So that's a big driver.

我認為，鑑於客戶迄今為止補貨不足的情況，第四季度的庫存狀況將比正常的季節性表現更好。我們認為他們今年不會在這方面取得太大進展，這種情況將延續到明年。所以這是一個很大的驅動因素。

In addition to that, you've got lower shutdown costs. A lot of that hit AFP in particular. So you've got that as a benefit. You've got lower operating costs from all of our operational transformation work and, as I mentioned earlier, this distribution coming off the spike that it was.

除此之外，停工成本也降低了。其中很大一部分影響了法新社（AFP）。所以這是一項優勢。由於我們所有的營運轉型工作，營運成本也降低了，而且正如我之前提到的，分銷量也從高峰迴落。

There are, of course, headwinds as we expect some moderation in spreads in Chemical Intermediates, and we have increasing gross spend. So there are some factors that offset some of that, but it's definitely much more of a specialty story and how you deliver a back half that's better than the first.

當然，我們也面臨一些阻力，因為我們預期化學中間體的價差會有所緩和，而且我們的總支出也在增加。因此，有一些因素會抵消部分阻力，但這絕對更關乎專業性，以及如何在後半段取得比前半段更好的表現。

Got it. And as a quick follow-up, Slide 6, I noticed you got a lot of cool companies in terms of the new Q2 sign-ups or commitments for your new facility. Are you close to selling out that facility at this point? And at what point do you sort of consider maybe continuing to expand given the momentum you've had there?

明白了。接下來，投影片6，我注意到你們新工廠在第二季簽約或承諾的訂單方面有很多不錯的公司。你們現在快要把工廠賣光了嗎？考慮到目前的發展勢頭，你們什麼時候會考慮繼續擴張？

Yes. Mike, great question. So we're really excited about how -- our circular economy investments are both solving a serious challenge in the planet, a dual challenge really, of getting plastic waste out of the environment and deploying a technology that avoid using fossil fuels and does it in a way that has a lower carbon footprint than our current traditional process. So really a win on both fronts.

是的。麥克，這個問題問得好。我們非常興奮——我們的循環經濟投資既解決了地球面臨的一個嚴峻挑戰，實際上是雙重挑戰：將塑膠垃圾從環境中清除出去；又部署了一項技術，避免使用化石燃料，並且比我們目前的傳統工藝碳足跡更低。所以，這真的是雙贏。

And our customers see that benefit, and it's important. Both elements are really important in the solution. And we've had tremendous engagement. As we talked about in the first quarter, you saw a spectrum of brands signing on to take our recycled content both from our polyester renewal technology as well as our carbon renewal technology into the biopolymers. And getting P&G and Ferragamo and a variety of other brands to sign on top is putting us in a great position to fill out this first facility that we're building that will come online.

我們的客戶看到了這種好處，這很重要。這兩個要素在解決方案中都至關重要。我們已經獲得了大量的參與。正如我們在第一季提到的，您看到許多品牌簽約，將我們的聚酯再生技術和碳再生技術中的再生材料應用於生物聚合物。寶潔、菲拉格慕以及其他眾多品牌的簽約，使我們處於有利地位，可以充分利用我們正在建造的首個即將投入使用的工廠。

Now we're already getting benefit from those because we have a bridging capacity in place with our current assets. So we're building volume and momentum this year and into next. That's part of our growth story. But with these commitments, we're going to be in a good position to sort of fill out that plant really quickly with specialty products, which is great. And that's the best way to build a plant is when it ramps up full, especially in specialty product line that's not normal and certainly improves the return.

現在我們已經從中獲益，因為我們擁有利用現有資產的橋接產能。因此，我們今年和明年的產量和成長動能都在增強。這是我們成長故事的一部分。有了這些承諾，我們將能夠快速地用特種產品填滿工廠，這很棒。建廠的最佳方式是當工廠全面投產時，尤其是在特種產品線上，這非常罕見，而且肯定會提高回報。

And yes, there are interest in going beyond this. We have, of course, specialty strategy we're really excited about, and we're going to continue to invest in that. But beyond that, a lot of customers out there in the fast-moving consumer goods world still have to do a lot of packaging. And they realize that the best carbon footprint is plastic. It's important to keep that in mind when you think about solving these problems. Because in our world of polyester, glass has double the carbon footprint even with much higher recycling rates than polyester day, and aluminum's 50% higher.

是的，我們確實有興趣超越這一點。當然，我們擁有我們非常興奮的專業策略，並且我們將繼續為此投入。但除此之外，快速消費品領域的許多客戶仍需要進行大量的包裝。他們意識到，最環保的塑膠是塑膠。在考慮解決這些問題時，牢記這一點至關重要。因為在我們這個聚酯的世界裡，即使玻璃的回收率遠高於聚酯，其碳足跡也是聚酯的兩倍，而鋁的碳足跡則高出50%。

So we need to solve this problem. Our brands understand this problem needs to be solved by recycling polymer as the best carbon footprint solution as well as a way to get the waste out of the environment.

所以我們需要解決這個問題。我們的品牌明白，解決這個問題需要透過回收聚合物來實現，這是解決碳足跡的最佳方案，也是將廢棄物排放到環境中的最佳途徑。

So we have a number of countries actually engaged with us about how to help them think about solving their waste problem, and we have a number of brands engaged with us on how we would potentially build facilities for their packaging needs that really solves this dual challenge. And so we're engaged.

因此，許多國家實際上都在與我們合作，探討如何幫助他們思考如何解決垃圾問題。此外，我們也與許多品牌合作，探討如何為他們的包裝需求建立設施，以真正解決這項雙重挑戰。所以，我們一直在積極參與。

But to be clear, we're not going to get back into the sort of merchant PET business. We are happy to get back into making this product, but it's got to be in a more Airgas model. We bring a lot to the table in the technology that's proven and scalable. We have a lot of operational capability, a lot of ability to build and scale up facilities as well as operate them really well and a lot of history with methanolysis that allows us to know exactly how to operate this kind of technology, which is difficult when you've got a variable feed stream of content coming into it.

但要先明確的是，我們不會再回到那種商用PET業務。我們很高興能重新生產這款產品，但必須採用更像Airgas的模式。我們帶來了許多經過驗證且可擴展的技術。我們擁有強大的營運能力，能夠建造和擴大設施規模，並有效率地運作它們，而且我們在甲醇分解方面擁有豐富的經驗，這讓我們能夠準確地了解如何操作這種技術，而當原料流變化時，操作起來會非常困難。

And for what we bring to the table, we want sort of spread stability. So we need to have long-term contracts with customers that give us a sort of predictable margin and as well feel certain we've got access to raw material supply, which is significant but still complicated to access.

就我們所能提供的而言，我們希望獲得某種程度的價差穩定性。因此，我們需要與客戶簽訂長期合同，以便獲得某種可預測的利潤，並確信我們能夠獲得原材料供應。原材料供應很重要，但獲取起來仍然很複雜。

So we meet these conditions, we'll for sure build these facilities. And we think that the return on capital and the amount of EBITDA each of these facilities could generate would be quite substantial. We're not going to get into the details of that now. But we're really excited about doing this, but it depends on the customers and the countries engaging in the right way. And hopefully, we'll be able to build several of these plants going forward.

所以，只要我們符合這些條件，我們一定會建造這些設施。我們認為，這些設施每項投資的資本報酬率和EBITDA（息稅折舊攤提前利潤）都將非常可觀。我們現在不打算詳細討論。但我們對此感到非常興奮，但這取決於客戶和相關國家是否以正確的方式參與。希望我們未來能夠建造幾座這樣的工廠。

We'll take our next question from P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup.

我們將回答花旗集團的 P.J. Juvekar 提出的下一個問題。

Just a couple of questions. With the sale of the tire business, you took a big loss on the sale of $0.5 billion. Did this business decline significantly in the last few years? Was the supply/demand getting worse that the loss was so big against the book value?

就幾個問題。出售輪胎業務後，你們損失了5億美元。這項業務在過去幾年是否大幅下滑？是供需關係惡化導致損失相對於帳面價值如此之大？

P.J., this is Willie. Let me start out here. I would also highlight the Solutia was a transformative acquisition that's created significant shareholder value and positioned us for growth through the innovation and the innovation-driven growth model that we have. And that's been highlighted in interlayers, performance films and specialty fluids, which are doing incredibly well right now. And we've highlighted that on many calls.

P.J.，我是威利。我先從這裡開始。我還想強調一下，收購首諾是一項具有變革意義的收購，它創造了巨大的股東價值，並讓我們透過創新和創新驅動的成長模式實現了成長。這一點在中間膜、高性能薄膜和特殊液體方面得到了充分體現，這些產品目前表現得非常出色。我們在很多電話會議上都強調了這一點。

Also, over the past couple of years, we've highlighted the fact of the headwinds in the 1/3. Many of those being macro with trade, also the competition. So as we assess this business, as you know, the accounting rules don't let us reallocate the goodwill back to the purchase date. So overall, we've got a strong portfolio and have transformed, but we also need to move forward. And I think we've been decisive with those actions.

此外，過去幾年，我們一直強調這三分之一業務面臨的阻力。其中很多是宏觀貿易方面的阻力，還有競爭。因此，如您所知，在評估這項業務時，會計準則不允許我們將商譽重新分配至購買日。因此，總體而言，我們擁有強大的產品組合，並且已經轉型，但我們也需要繼續前進。我認為我們採取的這些行動是果斷的。

And yes, it's resulting in a $500 million write-off, but we believe we've contributed -- created a tremendous amount of value. And now we're wanting to focus on what Mark just spoke about, which is investing in the circular economy and growing the 2/3.

是的，這確實導致5億美元的損失，但我們相信我們做出了貢獻，創造了巨大的價值。現在我們想專注於馬克剛才提到的，那就是投資循環經濟，實現2/3的成長。

Okay. And I'll follow up with that with Greg later on. In molecular recycling, Mark, where do you get the raw material waste plastic and at what prices? And then on the other side of that, if the recycled plastic costs, if they're higher, are the consumer companies planning to pass that through to their customers, i.e. consumers? Is that what they're expecting to do?

好的。稍後我會和Greg繼續討論這個問題。 Mark，在分子回收領域，原料廢塑膠是從哪裡取得的？價格是多少？另一方面，如果回收塑膠的成本更高，消費品公司是否計劃將成本轉嫁給他們的客戶，也就是消費者？這是他們期望做的事嗎？

So the supply is one of the more interesting conversations around the circular economy, which is there's a vast majority of plastic waste out there, but it's also -- you have to have a plan and a structure to access it.

因此，供應是循環經濟中最有趣的討論之一，也就是說，外面有絕大多數的塑膠垃圾，但你也必須有一個計劃和結構來獲取它。

So when you think about polyester in the U.S., just around the first point we're building here, there's about 20 billion pounds of polyester waste annually produced in this country that goes into packaging, textiles and carpet. 40% -- only 40% of it is actually packaging. And when you look at what can be mechanically recycled of that 40%, only 25% to 30% can realistically be mechanically recycled. And the vast majority of that recycling is actually into textiles, not back into bottles because you have to have extremely clean polymer to clean up and melt back into a bottle. So it's very limited on how you can actually solve the packaging problem with mechanical recycling. And then all the carpet and textiles pretty much ends up in landfill because mechanical recycling, again, doesn't really have an ability to do something with it.

想想美國的聚酯纖維，就我們這裡的第一個點附近，美國每年大約產生200億磅聚酯纖維廢料，用於包裝、紡織品和地毯。其中只有40%真正是包裝。而這40%中哪些可以機械回收，實際上只有25%到30%可以機械回收。而且，絕大多數回收物實際上是製成紡織品，而不是製成瓶子，因為必須使用極其乾淨的聚合物進行清洗，然後​​再熔化成瓶子。因此，機械回收在解決包裝問題方面的作用非常有限。所有地毯和紡織品最終幾乎都被填埋了，因為機械回收實際上無法處理它們。

So under any of these scenarios, when you look at all this waste, and we want as much mechanical recycling to happen as possible because it has a good carbon footprint, it's going to be very limited. And it also doesn't have a long-term life because, through mechanical recycling, the polymer breaks down after sort of 5 cycles. So molecular recycling, which is what we're doing, is essential to really solving this problem. And again, it's essential because the alternative materials have a worse carbon footprint.

所以，無論哪種情況，當你審視所有這些廢物時，我們都希望盡可能多地進行機械回收，因為它的碳足跡很低，但這種回收方式的利用率將非常有限。而且，這種材料的使用壽命也不長，因為在機械回收過程中，聚合物大約在5次循環後就會分解。因此，我們正在進行的分子回收對於真正解決這個問題至關重要。再次強調，它之所以至關重要，是因為替代材料的碳足跡更嚴重。

So we're really excited to be a leader in how to solve this. And the advantage of being a leader for our feedstock teams are out there engaging on multiple sources is we're way ahead of everyone else and going to commercial scale, right? We only -- in the polyester world, we only have other sort of small start-ups attempting to get into this space on the planet. And they don't have the resources that we have in technology, operations, how to build a skeletal plant, et cetera. So when we engage with the brands, we have a compelling story, not just of a solution but our ability to actually deliver it and be scalable in how we do it.

所以，我們非常高興能夠成為解決這個問題的領導者。身為領導者，我們的優勢在於我們的原料團隊能夠接觸多個來源，這讓我們遠遠領先於其他人，並且能夠實現商業規模化，對吧？在聚酯產業，世界上只有其他小型新創公司試圖進入這個領域。他們缺乏我們在科技、營運、如何建造骨架工廠等方面的資源。因此，當我們與品牌合作時，我們會講述一個引人入勝的故事，不僅僅是關於解決方案，還有我們實際交付解決方案的能力，以及在實施過程中的可擴展性。

And when you're willing to assign value to a waste that's going to landfill versus landfill, customer -- suppliers engage quite actively. And so we're feeling very good about being able to access that. So we're not going to get into what the price is. We're keeping our strategy and details of how we're accessing feedstock confidential as a competitive advantage in our point of view, but we're very confident we can access waste at a very affordable level.

當你願意為即將被填埋的廢物分配價值時，客戶——供應商——會非常積極地參與其中。因此，我們很高興能夠獲得這些資源。所以我們不會透露價格。我們將對我們的策略以及獲取原料的具體細節保密，因為這在我們看來是一種競爭優勢，但我們非常有信心能夠以非常實惠的價格獲取廢物。

And then on the customer side, the customers recognize that recycled content is going to be at a premium. As we shared with you all the way back in January, the premium that rPET is getting relative to fossil fuel-based PET is substantial, 60% to 80% premium in Europe right now. And the premiums aren't that far behind as they're now starting to climb in the U.S. as well. So they know that this is going to cost additional money. And what we can provide is more certainty on the price and predictability than what you can get from the spot or PET market that's at the food-grade level.

從客戶角度來看，他們意識到再生材料的價格將會上漲。正如我們一月份分享的那樣，rPET 相對於化石燃料基 PET 的溢價相當可觀，目前在歐洲的溢價高達 60% 到 80%。而且，由於美國的價格現在也開始上漲，所以溢價幅度也不大。所以他們知道這會增加額外的成本。相較於現貨市場或食品級 PET 市場，我們能夠提供更確定的價格和可預測性。

So that's also part of a value proposition in our Airgas models. While we want to make long -- while we have to have long-term commitments for our customers to make our economics work, it also is structured in a way that gives them a lot more price certainty in how to manage their business. So I think it works for both parties.

所以這也是我們Airgas模式的價值主張的一部分。雖然我們希望與客戶做出長期承諾，以確保我們的經濟效益，但其結構也賦予了客戶在業務管理方面更大的價格確定性。所以我認為這對雙方都有好處。

Go to our next question from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

繼續回答摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas 提出的下一個問題。

In your commodity business, you earned $144 million and I think last year, you earned $22 million. Can you analyze the year-over-year change in that operation? And I think sometimes you talk about intermediates, plasticizers and functional amines as being the larger chunks of it. How did those sub subsegments do year-over-year? Can you talk about the dynamics?

你們的大宗商品業務獲利1.44億美元，去年獲利2200萬美元。您能分析一下該業務的年比變化嗎？您有時會提到中間體、塑化劑和功能胺，它們佔了很大一部分。這些細分市場的年比表現如何？能談談其中的動態嗎？

Sure, Jeff. And yes, it's quite the recovery in Chemical Intermediates like many other companies who have similar kind of products versus last year. And it's a combination of better volume but significantly better spread that's driving that success in the portfolio.

當然，傑夫。是的，與許多擁有類似產品的公司一樣，化學中間體業務的復甦與去年相比相當強勁。銷售成長和價差顯著擴大的結合推動了產品組合的成功。

But before I get to the spread part, I want to just get to the composition of CI first, as you asked. So about 25% of the revenue in CI is actually amines -- functional amines. They're mostly on cost pass-through contracts. And so they've had very steady spread since we've, frankly, bought Taminco in the way their business is structured. And they've had a nice solid steady volume growth over time, delivering very predictable and attractive earnings. And they've got a few accelerants on top of that beyond just the normal ag growth.

但在談價差之前，我想先談談CI的組成，正如你所說。 CI大約25%的收入實際上來自胺——功能性胺。它們主要透過成本轉嫁合約銷售。坦白說，自從我們收購Taminco以來，他們的業務結構就一直保持著非常穩定的價差。而且，他們的銷量一直保持著穩健的成長，帶來了非常可預測且具有吸引力的利潤。此外，除了正常的農業成長之外，他們還有一些其他的促進因素。

So we've got a plant that we just built and are ramping up for Corteva for their Enlist product that's giving us a lot more additional growth on top of that core business. So that's just been a nice, great steady business.

我們剛剛建成了一家工廠，正在為科迪華（Corteva）的Enlist產品加緊生產，這將為我們在核心業務的基礎上帶來更多成長。所以，這筆業務一直非常穩定，而且非常出色。

Then you do have plasticizers, which has been a very attractive business. We've been a leader in non-phthalate plasticizers for a long time. And so we get not just underlying market growth but above-market growth in that business as we've been replacing other plasticizers. And the spreads there, of course, connected to the olefin chain have done quite well this year. But it's not just spreads, it's also a nice growth story with the position we have in that marketplace.

然後是增塑劑業務，這是一個非常有吸引力的業務。我們長期以來一直是非鄰苯二甲酸酯塑化劑領域的領導者。因此，我們不僅實現了基礎市場的成長，而且由於我們一直在取代其他增塑劑，該業務的成長甚至超過了市場。當然，與烯烴鏈相關的價差今年表現相當不錯。但這不僅僅是價差，憑藉我們在該市場的地位，我們也取得了不錯的成長。

And then you've got olefins and acetyls. Olefins and that set of intermediates that we make there is by far a bigger part of the business than acetyls. And spreads have obviously significantly improved with the dynamics in propylene relative to propane. So that's been a driver of the performance.

然後是烯烴和乙醯基。我們生產的烯烴和一系列中間體在業務中所佔的比重遠大於乙醯基。隨著丙烯相對於丙烷的動態變化，價差明顯改善。所以，這一直是業績成長的驅動因素。

Acetyls is a much smaller business for us. And it's important to remember, we're not really in acetic acid very much. It's just a co-product. We make acetic anhydride. We're the largest player in acetic anhydride in the world to make cellulosics, right? So when we look at the value of that stream with all the specialties that are made off of that in Advanced Materials, AFP, and of course, Fibers, the margins are -- that integrated acetyl stream is quite significant and above company average.

乙醯基業務對我們來說規模小得多。而且要記住的是，我們實際上並沒有怎麼生產乙酸。它只是我們的副產品。我們生產乙酸酐。我們是世界上最大的乙酸酐生產商，也是纖維素生產廠家，對吧？所以，當我們把乙醯基業務的價值，加上先進材料、AFP，當然還有纖維業務中用乙醯基生產的所有特種產品的價值來衡量時，利潤率——綜合乙醯基業務的利潤率相當可觀，高於公司平均水平。

So it's really about the olefins part where we're having some benefits, obviously, right now as well as -- at some point, we'll expect moderation. But even there, we've made investments to improve CI and stability. So we have a lot of that business on cost pass-through contracts versus spot because we want a predictable earnings that really showed a lot of benefit in how well CI held up on an annual basis in '19 and '20 relative to '18. So we did quite a bit better than others on that front. And of course, we're getting a benefit this year, not quite the same spot prices as some others might have. And we're happy to make that trade-off.

所以，真正重要的是烯烴部分，我們現在顯然獲得了一些好處，而且──在某個時候，我們預期會有所緩和。但即便如此，我們也進行了投資，以改善CI和穩定性。因此，我們許多業務都集中在成本轉嫁合約上，而不是現貨上，因為我們希望獲得可預測的收益，而這在2019年和2020年CI相對於2018年的年度表現上確實顯示出了很大的優勢。所以，我們在這方面做得比其他公司好很多。當然，我們今年也獲得了好處，雖然現貨價格與其他一些公司可能不一樣。我們很樂意做出這樣的權衡。

But we've done other things like the RGP investment, which has been a phenomenal investment to give us the ability to reduce the amount of ethylene we produce when it's not attractive and still make it when it is. So that's been a great way to stabilize that business.

但我們也做了其他一些事情，例如投資RGP專案。這是一項意義非凡的投資，它使我們能夠在乙烯價格不具吸引力時減少乙烯產量，並在乙烯價格有吸引力時繼續生產。所以，這對穩定業務來說是一個非常好的方法。

And we've optimized sites like taking Singapore down, which has been one of the highest parts of olefin volatility in our portfolio. And shutting that down will improve not just earnings, but reduce volatility.

我們還優化了站點，例如關閉新加坡，該站點一直是我們投資組合中烯烴波動性最高的地區之一。關閉該站點不僅能提高收益，還能降低波動性。

So a lot of things going on across the board to optimize value here. And it's important to keep in mind, Chemical Intermediates exists to support the specialties, which are growing really well. And part of the reason you'll see volume going down this business is because the specialties are consuming it so fast in their growth. So overall, it's playing its role, creating the value of reliability for customers, creating value to optimize our cost structure. And we're really proud of the team in how they've optimized value here in the first half of the year.

所以，為了優化價值，我們全面進行了許多工作。需要記住的是，化學中間體業務是為了支持特種化學品業務而存在的，而特種化學品業務的成長勢頭非常強勁。您會看到該業務的銷量下降，部分原因是特種化學品業務的成長消耗了太多的中間體。總的來說，它正在發揮其作用，為客戶創造可靠的價值，創造價值以優化我們的成本結構。我們為團隊在上半年優化價值的方式感到非常自豪。

How much of what's produced in the commodity segment is used internally roughly? And how is that changing in the current environment?

大宗商品部門生產的商品中，大約有多少是內部使用的？在當前環境下，這種情況發生了什麼樣的變化？

Yes. So Jeff, what I would say is approximately 50%. And as Mark has highlighted, we continue to debottleneck and get 1% to 2% growth a year in that space. So over time, we're trying to keep the reliability for our customers, but at the same time, be there when our specialties need it.

是的。傑夫，我想說大概是50%。正如馬克所強調的那樣，我們將繼續突破瓶頸，並實現該領域每年1%到2%的成長。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們會努力為客戶提供可靠的服務，同時，當我們的專業領域需要幫助時，我們也能隨時待命。

And we'll take our next question from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

我們將回答 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch 提出的下一個問題。

Just following up on Chemical Intermediates in terms of the margins and the spreads. How did July turn out relative to the 2Q average? Any sort of pace that you could provide for us on how Chemical Intermediates profitability has been trending to be great?

想了解一下化學中間體的利潤率和價差情況。 7月份的業績與第二季平均相比如何？您能否為我們介紹一下化學中間體獲利能力如何呈現強勁成長的趨勢？

Yes. So as we look at July, what I'd say, Frank, is prices have held up similar in July to the second quarter, but propane costs are trending higher, right? So part of our commentary is that -- propane was about $0.90 on average in the second quarter. It's $1.10 in July. So you've got some propane headwind. The prices are holding up well.

是的。弗蘭克，就7月份而言，我想說的是，7月份的價格與第二季度持平，但丙烷成本呈上升趨勢，對嗎？我們的部分評論是——第二季度丙烷平均價格約為0.90美元。 7月為1.10美元。所以丙烷價格面臨一些阻力。價格保持良好。

Now our guidance includes some expectation that prices will start to normalize as we go through the back half of this year. I think there's a wide range of opinions about the rate at which prices may or may not normalize in the back half of the year. I'd say we're probably in the middle of the road on -- relative to the commentary out there, where we expect some but not dramatic. And we said we're getting out of the olefin forecasting business a long time ago, and we're going to stick with that. It's a little hard to predict the pace at which these markets can change.

現在，我們的預期包括價格將在今年下半年開始恢復正常。我認為，對於下半年價格恢復正常的速度，人們的看法各不相同。我認為，相對於外界的評論，我們可能處於中間位置，我們預計價格會有所回升，但不會大幅上漲。我們很久以前就說過，我們將退出烯烴預測業務，並且會堅持下去。預測這些市場變化的速度有點困難。

But appreciate the earnings. It's actually been a nice balance as we're working pricing relative to raws and the specialties. And so these sort of neutralize each other out in some ways. And on the spread front, our strategy is focused on growing high-value volume and mix through innovation in the specialties, which is the vast majority of who we are. It's nice to get these benefits out of CI, but it's also nice that it's a small part of the company and not a big driver of our long-term growth story.

但我很欣賞這些收益。實際上，這是一個很好的平衡，因為我們在製定原料藥和特種藥的定價時，兩者之間在某種程度上相互抵消。在價差方面，我們的策略專注於透過特種藥的創新來增加高價值產品的產量和產品組合，而特種藥是我們業務的絕大部分。從CI獲得這些收益固然很好，但它只是公司很小的一部分，而不是我們長期成長的主要驅動力，這也很好。

Got you. And actually, that feeds into my question in terms of seasonality on 4Q. It looks like the guide is more heavily weighted on the third quarter. Is that more a function of that you have greater near-term visibility? And just in general, what are your thoughts on 4Q seasonality since there does seem to be some thought out there that it's going to be less than typical in normal years?

明白了。實際上，這與我關於第四季度季節性的問題有關。看起來這份指引更著重在第三季。這是否更多是因為你們對短期前景的預見性更強？總的來說，鑑於外界似乎確實有人認為第四季的季節性會低於正常年份，您對第四季的季節性有何看法？

Yes. So on the specialty side, I'd say our view is demand is going to be strong and hold up well in the third quarter and continue into the fourth quarter, so not that normal seasonal drop as we don't see a lot of progress in customers making sort of improvements in their inventory situation, especially in some markets like automotive or construction. And those kind of markets clearly are being sort of rate limited by supply chain challenges in the way they're serving underlying market demand, which is very strong around the world.

是的。所以在特種化學品方面，我認為我們的觀點是需求將會強勁，並在第三季度保持良好勢頭，並持續到第四季度，因此不會出現正常的季節性下降，因為我們沒有看到客戶在改善庫存狀況方面取得很大進展，尤其是在汽車或建築等市場。這類市場顯然受到供應鏈挑戰的限制，無法滿足潛在的市場需求，而全球的市場需求都非常強勁。

And so they're going to continue to want to sort of ramp up production whenever they get raw materials to serve that need. So we think that continues -- that sort of strength continues in the back half of this year, and frankly, into next year in those kind of end markets.

因此，只要獲得原料，他們就會繼續提高產量來滿足這項需求。我們認為這種情況會持續下去——這種強勁勢頭將在今年下半年持續下去，坦白說，也將持續到明年，尤其是在這些終端市場。

And then you got other steady markets that are just constantly growing like care chemicals, water treatment, ag, et cetera, that will -- that always provides stability. So we think it's going to hold up better on that side. When it comes to Chemical Intermediates, I think I already hit that, which is at some point, we expect normalization of spreads. I just don't know when.

還有其他一些穩定的、持續成長的市場，例如護理化學品、水處理、農業等等，這些市場始終能夠提供穩定性。因此，我們認為這方面的表現會更好。至於化學中間體，我想我已經預見了這一點，我們預計價差會在某個時候恢復正常。只是不知道具體時間。

Our next question is from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Mark, I'm wondering in the sort of molecular recycling arena. You've talked about the PET opportunity on a take-or-pay basis. I'm wondering like in polyester fibers, if there's an avenue into the apparel industry or textile industry. I mean I know you obviously have Naia through the fibers, but that's a different solution. So I'm just wondering if there's another source of customer opportunity to sell recycled polyester fiber.

馬克，我在分子回收領域想了解一下。您之前提到了PET回收的「照付不議」模式。我想知道，像聚酯纖維那樣，是否有進入服裝業或紡織業的途徑。我知道你們顯然透過纖維業務推出了Naia，但那是另一個解決方案。所以，我想知道是否還有其他銷售再生聚酯纖維的客戶機會。

Yes. So there's 2 different opportunities for us, Vincent, in the textile world. First and foremost, we're having tremendous success with our biopolymer, right? So you got to remember, we have a cellulosic polymer called Naia that is half biopolymer from certified sustainable force. And the other half now is going to have recycled content in it through our recycling technology. And it's -- as a microfiber, it's certified as biodegradable. So it's a hat trick of solving the environmental problems that are out there.

是的。文森特，我們在紡織領域有兩個不同的機會。首先，也是最重要的，我們的生物聚合物取得了巨大的成功，對吧？所以你要記住，我們有一種叫做Naia的纖維素聚合物，它的一半是來自經過認證的可持續能源的生物聚合物。另一半現在將透過我們的回收技術添加再生材料。而且，它是一種超細纖維，經過認證可生物降解。所以，這是解決現有環境問題的「帽子戲法」。

And we see really strong engagement from customers on that. It's a nice high-margin product for us and a way to sort of repurpose all of the fiber's capacity that was making tow. So we're spending a lot of time driving that, and it's just a great success story.

我們看到客戶對此的積極參與。這對我們來說是一款不錯的高利潤產品，也是一種重新利用所有用於生產絲束的纖維產能的方式。所以我們投入了大量時間來推動這個進程，這是一個非常成功的案例。

And when you think about just this year, the amount of growth we're having in textiles is offsetting the decline in tow and the onetime hit we took in that discontinued specialty product, which was $10 million alone. So really great progress by that team.

想想看，僅就今年而言，我們在紡織品業務上的成長就抵消了拖曳業務的下滑，以及停產特種產品帶來的一次性衝擊（僅特種產品一項就高達1000萬美元）。所以，這個團隊取得了巨大的進步。

And yes, there is the opportunity in addition to that to look at polyester fiber with recycled content in it. Those are some of the conversations we're starting to have, along with some of the packaging customers on where we could potentially lean in and help on that front. So it's a possibility to add to our growth story in the biopolymer textiles.

是的，除此之外，我們還有機會研究含有再生成分的聚酯纖維。這些是我們正在與一些包裝客戶進行的一些對話，探討我們可以在這方面提供哪些幫助。因此，這有可能為我們在生物聚合物紡織品領域的成長增添新的亮點。

And could I just ask you on -- I know you raised the free cash flow guidance, but just curious how you're thinking of managing the sort of raw material issues that are out there in terms of inventories and some companies sort of were seeing a bulge sort of during the year while they're trying to procure inventories to make sure they have what they need for customers. Others are talking about maybe they want to have more on hand in general in the future just given we continue to see sort of unplanned outages and things like that, and they want to be a little bit more nimble.

我可以問一下嗎？我知道您提到了自由現金流指引，但我好奇您是如何考慮管理庫存方面的原材料問題的。有些公司今年庫存量有所膨脹，他們正在努力採購庫存，以確保為客戶提供所需的產品。其他公司則表示，考慮到我們持續看到的計劃外停產之類的情況，他們可能希望未來總體上儲備更多庫存，他們希望更加靈活一些。

What's the thinking inside of Eastman in terms of how you want to manage inventories, given that you're obviously a very strong free cash flow generator, and that's an important part of the story?

鑑於伊士曼顯然是一個非常強大的自由現金流產生器，那麼在如何管理庫存方面，伊士曼內部有何想法？這是故事的重要組成部分？

Thanks, Vincent. This is Willie. Yes, I would like to highlight, I'll call it, the tremendous efforts that our team members across the world to deliver free cash flow here in the first half of the year.

謝謝，文森特。我是威利。是的，我想強調一下，我們全球團隊成員在今年上半年為實現自由現金流所做的巨大努力。

To your point, we've delivered greater free cash flow this year, almost $450 million in the first 6 months. And that's facing raw material pricing inflation of about $200 million higher than last year.

正如您所說，我們今年的自由現金流有所增加，前六個月接近4.5億美元。這還是在原物料價格上漲的影響下，比去年高出了約2億美元。

As Mark highlighted earlier, the supply chains continue, I'll call it, to be, I'll call it thin. And we're looking to ensure security of supply. So there would be choices that we would make to ensure in our specialties that we have the ability to meet our demands of our customers, and we would make those trade-offs. We factored that into our forecasted guidance as we think about delivering greater than $1.1 billion this year. But it is choices that we will continue to make as we see the demand scenarios play out. It's hard to imagine building a lot of inventory right now just if we assume the main levels of Q2.

正如馬克之前強調的那樣，供應鏈仍在繼續，我稱之為，薄弱。我們正在努力確保供應安全。因此，我們會做出一些選擇，以確保我們有能力滿足客戶的需求，並且我們會做出權衡。我們已將這一點納入預測指引，因為我們計劃今年的交付額將超過11億美元。但隨著需求情境的變化，我們將繼續做出這些選擇。如果只假設第二季的主要水平，現在很難想像會大量增加庫存。

Go to our next question from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

前往 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, with regard to your specialty segments, margins came down a bit on a sequential basis in that context. So I was wondering if you could talk about how much of the cost inflation has been recovered and how much you think you will need to recover and what role price increases might play in that process for Additives & Functional Products as well as Advanced Materials.

馬克，關於你們的特種產品業務，利潤率在這種背景下較上季略有下降。所以，我想請您談談成本上漲已經恢復了多少，您認為還需要恢復多少，以及價格上漲在這一過程中對添加劑和功能產品以及先進材料業務可能起到什麼作用。

Yes. So I think we're doing well on managing prices in the specialties. As we look through the second quarter and the way we're increasing prices here in the third quarter, we think we're well on track to managing prices relative to raw material costs and really incredibly proud of the teams in how they're doing that.

是的。所以我認為我們在特種產品價格管理方面做得很好。回顧第二季以及第三季的漲價方式，我們認為我們在控制原材料成本價格方面進展順利，我們對團隊的做法感到非常自豪。

The challenge we had in the second quarter was the spike in distribution costs on top of the raw materials. A lot of it was just airfreighting, right? So it's not just price per unit delivered, but it's a mode that we had to use to keep our customers supplied. So there just was a tremendous amount of airfreighting going on. We expect that to abate back to more normal modes and as well as sort of calm down a bit.

我們在第二季面臨的挑戰是原材料成本以外的配送成本飆升。其中很大一部分是空運成本，對吧？所以這不僅僅是單價問題，而是一種我們必須用來保證顧客供貨的方式。所以空運量非常大。我們預期這種情況會逐漸減少，恢復到更正常的模式，並逐漸平息下來。

Now we're getting some price to cover some of those costs, but not all of it, and that's part of the offset that you saw in the second quarter. So as we go into the back half, we feel really quite good about keeping up with raws and managing the distribution total cost. So that's not really our concern. We're focused on just trying to get volume and mix delivered to customers.

現在我們的價格已經能夠彌補部分成本，但並非全部，這也是您在第二季看到的抵銷效應的一部分。因此，進入下半年，我們對維持原料供應和控制分銷總成本感到非常滿意。所以，這並非我們真正關心的問題。我們專注於確保產品數量和產品組合能夠交付給客戶。

And the market demand out there is really good, well above our logistics capabilities that we can access. And so the constraint is going to be more about just access to logistics on how we drive demand in the back half of the year and how much that could limit the level of growth in the back half relative to the second quarter. But we feel quite good about managing the raw material situation.

市場需求確實很好，遠超過我們所能獲得的物流能力。因此，限制我們下半年需求成長的因素主要在於物流管道，以及物流管道在多大程度上會限制下半年相對於第二季度的成長水準。但我們對原材料情勢的管理感到相當滿意。

I see. And then secondly, your prepared remarks released last night referenced $100 million of savings from digitization, site optimization, operations transformation, et cetera. So a few questions. Maybe you could elaborate on what exactly you're doing there and how these savings might spread among your segments and what the associated cash outlay might be attached to those projected savings.

我明白了。其次，您昨晚發布的準備好的演講稿提到了透過數位化、網站優化、營運轉型等方式節省1億美元。我想問幾個問題。您能否詳細說明您在這方面的具體舉措，這些節省將如何分攤到各個部門，以及這些預計的節省將帶來哪些相關的現金支出。

So what I would highlight is we've had 3 primary buckets that we've talked about of cost savings. So as we think about site optimizations, we, I would say, have substantially executed most of those through midyear. And we expect a tailwind. And we framed that all in to be a $50 million program, of which we would expect, I'll call it, about half of that to flow into next year as well.

我想強調的是，我們之前討論過三個主要的成本節約目標。說到網站優化，我想說，我們在年中已經基本完成了大部分優化工作。我們預計會有順風效應。我們把所有這些計劃都安排在一個5000萬美元的項目中，我們預計其中大約一半的資金也會流入到明年。

We've also talked about how we do maintenance turnarounds. I'll call it spans and layers across our operations front. And we've made those implementations at the end of -- I'll call it end of 2020 going into '21. And we expect as that's fully implemented, there will be additional tailwinds from those actions.

我們也討論瞭如何進行維護週轉。我稱之為貫穿我們營運前端的跨度和層次。我們已經在2020年底實施了這些措施——我稱之為2020年底，進入2021年。我們預計，隨著這些措施的全面實施，這些行動將帶來更多推動力。

Additionally, as we continue to think about leveraging our sites for other partners as another way of creating value and gaining, I'll call it, earnings from additional capacities that we have. And we're continuing to make progress on those fronts as well.

此外，我們仍在考慮如何利用我們的工廠為其他合作夥伴創造價值，並透過我們現有的額外產能獲得收益。我們也正在這些方面不斷取得進展。

Year in and year out, our goal is to not -- I'll call it in normal operations is to offset inflation. And also, as you think about going from '21 to '22, I would say on -- the variable comp will also be a tailwind as we manage all 3 of those buckets.

年復一年，我們的目標是──在正常營運中，我稱之為抵銷通貨膨脹。而且，當你考慮從2021年到2022年時，我想說——在我們管理這三個目標的過程中，可變薪酬也將是一個順風。

Our next question from Alex Yefremov with KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Alex Yefremov。

Mark, where do you stand in advancing this industrial gas-like business model for your methanolysis technology? Are you in any specific discussions with potential partners? And have those discussions been fruitful?

馬克，你們在推動甲醇分解技術這種類似工業氣體的商業模式方面進展如何？你們正在與潛在合作夥伴進行具體的洽談嗎？這些洽談取得了哪些成果？

Yes. So we are engaged in specific discussions with partners both at the country and the brand level as well as sources of feedstock supply. So we have a lot of conversations going on over now. We have a full team just dedicated to managing this area and quite encouraged by the level and seriousness at which the counterparties are taking this and understanding the challenges and what we see in their commitments to make a real difference in improving the environment with their products.

是的。我們正在與國家和品牌層面的合作夥伴以及原料供應方進行具體的討論。所以，我們現在有很多對話正在進行中。我們有一個完整的團隊專門負責管理這個領域，並且非常鼓舞地看到合作夥伴們對待這個問題的重視程度和認真程度，以及他們對挑戰的理解，以及他們承諾用產品為改善環境做出真正貢獻。

So I feel good about it, but it's not over until it's over. And so we just have to see how these discussions play out. And I'll be excited to share the news with you once I've actually achieved my objective on the structure of these kind of deals.

所以我對此感到很滿意，但一切不到最後都不算結束。所以我們只能拭目以待這些討論的進展。一旦我真正實現了關於此類交易結構的目標，我會很高興與大家分享這個消息。

Great. Well, we look forward to that. And as a follow-up on free cash flow, you mentioned for next year, priorities are dividend increase, M&A and share repurchases. The last 2 categories, how do you think about the balance of -- if you can't find bolt-ons, should we think of sort of share repurchases as sort of a default option or repurchase? Is it going to be more opportunistic in nature?

太好了。嗯，我們期待著這一點。關於自由現金流，您提到明年的優先事項是增加股利、併購和股票回購。最後兩個類別，您如何看待平衡？如果找不到附加方案，我們應該將股票回購視為預設選項還是回購？它的本質會更具機會主義色彩嗎？

Yes. So I'm going to sort of answer the first part of that question, and then I'm going to hand it off to Willie for more of the detail. But first of all, I just want to sort of recognize, we really are proud of how well our teams have managed and delivered free cash flow and the stability in which we've been able to do it in both good and challenging times. Really, when we reflect on it, it's been a decade journey to get to this kind of performance.

是的。我先回答這個問題的第一部分，然後交給威利來詳細解說。但首先，我想承認，我們真的為我們的團隊在管理和實現自由現金流方面的出色表現感到自豪，也為我們在順境和逆境中都能保持的穩定性感到自豪。真的，回想起來，我們走過了十年才取得這樣的成績。

When you go back to where we were before the Solutia transaction, our free cash flow, frankly, wasn't as strong. And Solutia dramatically improved the quality of our portfolio along with Taminco being less capital-intensive and improving our free cash flow. So in addition to earnings, there was a significant benefit that came out of the Solutia acquisition on the free cash flow side.

坦白說，回顧收購 Solutia 之前的情況，我們的自由現金流並不那麼強勁。收購 Solutia 顯著提升了我們投資組合的質量，同時 Taminco 降低了資本密集度，也改善了我們的自由現金流。因此，除了獲利之外，收購 Solutia 也為我們的自由現金流帶來了顯著的提升。

And then we've had just tremendous success in growing these high-value innovation products that are quite attractive margins, which means they generate a lot of cash and improving the cash flow of the portfolio that way. And then, of course, there's recent actions we've taken in optimizing our portfolio like selling tires. That's going to give us additional cash. So we're in a very strong sort of strategic position from a cash and balance sheet point of view.

我們在發展這些高價值創新產品方面取得了巨大的成功，這些產品的利潤率相當誘人，這意味著它們能夠產生大量現金，並以此改善投資組合的現金流。當然，我們最近也採取了一些措施來優化投資組合，例如銷售輪胎。這將為我們帶來額外的現金。因此，從現金和資產負債表的角度來看，我們處於非常強勁的策略地位。

And as we look at it going forward, just to reiterate our priorities, first and foremost, is doing CapEx consistent with our specialty innovation growth strategy and making sure we have the capacity in place to support our growth. Then of course, there's this acceleration opportunity around the circular economy. The first step is just part of our strategy, which is how do we add recycled content to our specialty products. But as we've discussed on this call, there's this opportunity to build additional plants in this Airgas model that could substantially add to our EBITDA. And so we're going to be looking at those as an option for cash.

展望未來，我們重申我們的優先事項：首先，也是最重要的，是確保資本支出與我們的專業創新成長策略一致，並確保我們擁有支持成長的產能。當然，循環經濟也為我們提供了加速發展的機會。第一步只是我們策略的一部分，即如何在我們的專業產品中添加可回收材料。但正如我們在這次電話會議上討論的那樣，我們有機會在Airgas模式下建造更多工廠，這將大幅提升我們的EBITDA（息稅折舊攤提前利潤）。因此，我們將把這些視為一種現金選擇。

And then you get to share repurchases and bolt-on M&A as the next steps. Of course, we always have a growing dividend that is part of that overall cash story. So it's -- the priorities are clear there. To be clear, we're not looking at large M&A, if that question's out there. And we think that pulling all these levers in concert is a way to create a nice balanced growth story for the company.

接下來，我們將進行股票回購和附加併購。當然，我們的股息一直在成長，這也是我們整體現金流狀況的一部分。所以，我們的優先事項很明確。需要明確的是，我們不會考慮大規模併購（如果有人提出這個問題的話）。我們認為，協同運用所有這些槓桿，才能為公司創造一個良好、均衡的成長故事。

I'll let Willie give you a little more details around exactly where the cash position sits at this point.

我會讓威利向您提供更多有關當前現金狀況的詳細資訊。

Yes. What I would say is with the improving EBITDA, we expect to be done with delevering at the end of this year. And I would also add, we're now not expecting to need to further delever for the tires divestiture. So we've committed to roughly $250 million of share repurchases in the back half of the year and now thinking that we would have roughly $600 million to $650 million of cash to repurchase shares and/or bolt-ons, as Mark has highlighted as we wrap up the year.

是的。我想說的是，隨著EBITDA的改善，我們預計今年底將完成去槓桿。另外，我還要補充一點，我們目前預計不需要為輪胎業務的剝離進一步去槓桿。因此，我們承諾在下半年回購約2.5億美元的股票，現在預計我們將擁有約6億至6.5億美元的現金用於回購股票和/或補充收購，正如馬克在年末強調的那樣。

Our balance sheet is in great shape. We're below 2.5x net debt-to-EBITDA and expect to also from a rating agency view to achieve 2.5x or below by year-end. We're in a great position. And as we think about going forward, we have roughly $1.2 billion remaining on our current stock repurchase authorization. And with the cash that I talked about as we wrap up the year and think about potentially $700 million of free cash flow to put to strategic use of next year, we're in a strong position as we move forward, as Mark highlighted.

我們的資產負債表狀況良好。我們的淨債務與EBITDA比率低於2.5倍，評級機構預計到年底也將達到2.5倍或更低。我們處於非常有利的地位。展望未來，我們目前的股票回購授權剩餘約12億美元。正如馬克所強調的那樣，加上我在年末提到的現金，以及明年可能用於戰略用途的7億美元自由現金流，我們在未來的發展中處於非常有利的地位。

Yes. And just on the bolt-ons, we're not going to be opportunistic. We're going to be very strategic. In other words, we're only going to do bolt-ons if they really fit with the company, they really create a lot of value and reinforce an existing business. And we're going to be disciplined about what we pay. So we're not going to get caught up in deal fever. Having said that, we very much like to do bolt-on M&A, but it's got to meet those conditions.

是的。至於附加收購，我們不會投機取巧。我們會非常注重戰略。換句話說，只有真正適合公司、真正創造巨大價值並鞏固現有業務的附加收購，我們才會進行。我們會嚴格控制收購價格。所以我們不會陷入交易狂熱。話雖如此，我們非常樂意進行附加收購，但必須滿足這些條件。

We'll go to our next question from John Roberts with UBS.

我們將討論瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲提出的下一個問題。

In AFP, when you say looking at additional actions, is that more divestments or is that taking out stranded costs from the tire and rubber chemical divestment?

在法新社，當您說考慮採取其他行動時，是指更多的資產剝離，還是是指從輪胎和橡膠化學品資產剝離中消除擱淺成本？

We're always committed, John, to managing our cost structure, including what residual cost might occur from a divestiture. And so we'll manage that as part of our overall operational and business operating model transition work. But when it comes to other work, we're referring to adhesives, where we're continuing to pursue both JV and divestiture options with that business, where we have good engagement from multiple parties. And we'll see how that plays out.

約翰，我們始終致力於管理我們的成本結構，包括剝離業務可能產生的剩餘成本。因此，我們將把這部分成本管理作為我們整體營運和業務模式轉型工作的一部分。至於其他業務，我們指的是黏合劑業務，我們將繼續尋求與該業務合資或剝離的方案，目前我們與多方保持良好的合作。我們將拭目以待，看看最終效果如何。

Okay. And then after the conversion of more standards -- standard copolyesters to Tritan, what percent of the copolyester production will be Tritan? How much capacity do you have left so that you can have low capital intensity upgrades there?

好的。那麼，在更多標準共聚酯轉換為Tritan之後，共聚酯產量中Tritan的比例是多少？你們還剩下多少產能，以便進行低資本強度的升級？

Well, we certainly have little capital intensity upgrades. That's been the story, especially plastics, since it began, right? It started with a bunch of PET assets handed to it from at that time. If you want to go back far enough in history, they're a big brother. And then repurpose those PET assets to making our traditional copolyesters and then repurposing those polymer assets to make Tritan.

嗯，我們確實很少進行資本密集度升級。自從塑膠產業成立以來，情況一直如此，對吧？它最初是從當時接手的一堆PET資產開始的。如果你想追溯夠久遠的歷史，它們就像老大哥一樣。然後，我們重新利用這些PET資產來生產我們傳統的共聚酯，再利用這些聚合物資產來生產Tritan。

And we did a bunch of expansions in 2018 to support growth across the entire company portfolio and are doing a number of them here that we started last year, expecting recovery on the back end of COVID and the need for growth assets. Tritan's one of those many projects that we have going on, where we've converted a copolyester line in the second quarter of this year to Tritan and will come online this quarter.

2018年，我們進行了一系列擴張，以支持整個公司產品組合的成長。其中一些項目我們去年就開始了，我們預計新冠疫情結束後經濟將復甦，並滿足對成長資產的需求。 Tritan是我們正在進行的眾多項目之一，我們已於今年第二季將一條共聚酯生產線轉換為Tritan，並將於本季投產。

And that's a continuous story, in addition to probably -- we're getting to a point where we're probably going to add polymer capacity because the growth across the portfolio, not just Tritan, has been so robust. But I think that, that really has been a big driver of the story. Greg wants to talk. So Greg, go ahead.

這是一個持續發展的故事，此外，我們可能即將增加聚合物產能，因為整個產品組合（不僅僅是Tritan）的成長都非常強勁。但我認為這確實是推動我們發展的重要因素。 Greg想談談。 Greg，請講。

Sorry. Tritan today probably represents about 1/3 -- a little over 1/3 of the revenue for specialty plastics. So if you're looking for a quantification, that's about what it is.

抱歉。 Tritan 目前大概佔特種塑膠總收入的三分之一——略高於三分之一。所以，如果你想要量化的話，大概就是這樣。

But it continues to grow. But it's important to understand that we're adding recycled content not just to Tritan, but to all the copolyesters. Our Cristal Renew product, it goes on cosmetic packaging. A variety of other polyesters are also growing really fast with the circular addition to our story. That's why we're going to have to add total polymer capacity.

但它仍在持續成長。但重要的是要明白，我們不僅會在Tritan中添加再生材料，還會在所有共聚酯中添加再生材料。我們的Cristal Renew產品用於化妝品包裝。隨著我們循環經濟的推進，各種其他聚酯也在快速成長。這就是為什麼我們必須增加聚合物的總產能。

Go to our next question from Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

請回答美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe 提出的下一個問題。

Congrats on the P&G announcement. And when I read the press release, I guess I understand the agreement for purchasing of Renew, but how are you 2 working together to address the infrastructure problems? You kind of alluded to that in the press release. I'm just wondering what P&G is committing to do in here.

恭喜寶潔宣布了這個消息。我讀了新聞稿，大概明白了收購Renew的協議，但你們兩家將如何合作解決基礎設施問題？你在新聞稿中提到了這一點。我只是想知道寶潔在這方面承諾了什麼。

Well, there's a lot of policy as well as collaboration with the existing recycling infrastructure that I think is amplified when we're working with brands who have a very deep relationship with the recyclers, right? So they buy a lot of recycled content today from those companies. And working with them and encouraging them to broaden what they do beyond just easy-to-recycle product and making this broader waste stream available to us is a point of collaboration for us.

嗯，我認為，當我們與那些與回收商關係密切的品牌合作時，會有很多政策以及與現有回收基礎設施的合作，對嗎？所以他們現在從這些公司購買大量再生材料。與他們合作，鼓勵他們拓展業務範圍，而不僅僅是易於回收的產品，並將更廣泛的廢物流提供給我們，這是我們合作的一個重點。

So there's collaboration with the existing infrastructure and encouragement for them to improve their capabilities. There's also collaboration at the political level, both national and state level and even local level on policy that supports the improvement in recycling infrastructure, encourages the consumers to have the right behavior. There's a lot of different ways to get at that with what's called EPRs, expanded producer responsibility, or bottle bills, et cetera, that can drive more recycling and ensuring that the value of recycling material versus putting at landfill has more value. And policy comes in play there, too.

因此，需要與現有基礎設施合作，並鼓勵它們提升能力。此外，還需要在政治層面（包括國家、州甚至地方）開展合作，制定政策，支持改善回收基礎設施，並鼓勵消費者採取正確的行為。有許多不同的方法可以實現這一目標，例如所謂的生產者責任計畫 (EPR)、擴大生產者責任或瓶裝水法案等等，這些方法可以推動更多的回收利用，並確保回收材料的價值高於掩埋場的價值。政策也在其中發揮作用。

So there's a lot to be done at multiple levels. And I think P&G, and frankly, a number of other brands that we're talking to are going to be really valuable partners in advocating to help improve our ability to sort of be responsible with this valuable resource and create a true circular economy.

所以，在多個層面上，我們還有很多工作要做。我認為寶潔，坦白說，以及我們正在洽談的許多其他品牌，都將是真正有價值的合作夥伴，共同倡導提高我們負責任地利用這一寶貴資源的能力，並打造真正的循環經濟。

All right. That makes sense. And as a follow-up, so paint protection film has been a nice source of growth for Eastman over the last couple of quarters. Has sales expectations for the year kind of decelerated for that business in line with auto sales forecast? Or is the adoption cycle making up for that kind of downshift in the underlying?

好的。這很有道理。接下來，漆面保護膜在過去幾季一直是伊士曼的良好成長點。該業務今年的銷售預期是否與汽車銷售預測同步下降？還是說，市場採用週期正在彌補基礎業務的這種下滑？

No. It's doing great. And it's not been a couple of quarters, it's been many years of how well this performance films business has done both in the window film and the paint protection film. It's been a tremendous growth story. Last year, they grew in a very down market because this category of paint protection film in particular, is just dramatically growing in how people want to protect their paint.

不，它做得很好。而且這不僅僅是幾季的事，而是多年來，高性能薄膜業務在窗膜和漆面保護膜方面都表現良好。這是一個驚人的成長故事。去年，他們在非常低迷的市場中實現了成長，因為人們對保護車漆的需求急劇增長，而這類漆面保護膜尤其如此。

And we just launched a new Gen 3 product that is substantially better than our existing products, which were still market-leading in their performance, but it's much easier to install. It performs better in protecting the paint, and it now actually has the gloss of ceramic coating, if you're familiar with the car industry. So it actually has a better gloss when you put this on than the original clear coat of the car.

我們剛剛推出了一款全新的第三代產品，它比我們現有的產品（性能仍然在市場上處於領先地位）有了顯著提升，而且安裝起來也更加方便。它對車漆的保護效果更好，而且如果你熟悉汽車行業的話，它現在實際上擁有了陶瓷塗層的光澤。所以，當你塗上它時，它的光澤度實際上比汽車原廠的透明塗層更好。

I just came back from visiting a bunch of dealers out West and getting their direct feedback about how this is going, and we're just incredibly excited about that. And it's not just the product. We've also rolled out a new software program called Core that has superior pattern cutting, which is a really difficult part of doing paint protection film well when you think about all the different car shapes there and getting the film to fit properly around the car. And this software allows them to make very precise cuts and install much easier with the patterns of all the cars in the last 10 years, which is a nontrivial task to create, I might add.

我剛拜訪了西部的一些經銷商回來，直接聽了他們關於專案進度的回饋，我們對此感到非常興奮。這不僅僅是產品本身。我們還推出了一款名為 Core 的新軟體程序，它擁有卓越的模型切割能力。考慮到汽車形狀各異，如何讓保護膜完美地貼合車身，這對於做好漆面保護膜來說是一個非常困難的部分。這款軟體讓他們能夠根據過去 10 年所有車型的車型進行非常精確的切割，並使安裝更加容易。我想補充一下，這並非易事。

So it's done really well. And then the channel strategies we've deployed about working with auto dealers, in addition, in the retail market has expanded our market tremendously over the last 5 years. So it's a great business, it's growing well, high-value mix upgrade to the segment. And even with the auto market slowing down, we're seeing this business continue to do well because dealers are trying to focus on what they can upsell onto the car with the limited volume they have to sell. So we're getting good engagement as we're trying to add features to what they're selling.

所以它做得非常好。此外，我們與汽車經銷商合作的通路策略，以及在零售市場的策略，在過去五年裡大大拓展了我們的市場。所以這是一項很棒的業務，成長良好，為細分市場帶來了高價值的產品組合升級。即使在汽車市場放緩的情況下，我們也看到這項業務繼續表現良好，因為經銷商正努力在有限的銷售下專注於能夠追加銷售的產品。因此，當我們嘗試為他們銷售的產品添加新功能時，我們獲得了良好的參與。

Would you ever -- if I can just tack on, would you ever look into moving into the installer game for the paint protection film? Because I understand the margins there are pretty fat, and like XPEL is slowly kind of moving downstream. Or is that something that you wouldn't do?

如果我再補充一下，您是否考慮進軍漆面保護膜安裝市場？我知道這個產業的利潤空間很大，而且像XPEL這樣的品牌也慢慢往下游發展。或者說，您不會這麼做？

No. We're looking at our models to make sure that our dealers and our -- both the retail dealers as well as the auto dealers have the resources to do the installation, I think, is what you're getting at. And there's a lot of different ways to do that. We have no interest in getting into competition with our customers. We don't think that's a very good business model when the retailers have been such loyal and valuable partners with us.

不。我們正在審視我們的模式，以確保我們的經銷商——包括零售經銷商和汽車經銷商——都擁有安裝所需的資源，我想這就是你的意思。有很多不同的方法可以做到這一點。我們不想與客戶競爭。考慮到零售商一直是我們如此忠誠和寶貴的合作夥伴，我們認為這不是一個很好的商業模式。

But we do recognize that with labor constraints out there, we've got to have different models to enable installation resources to be in place. And so we're looking at multiple ways to do that. So that's sort of how we look at it. But it is -- an important aspect of what you do is help them develop the high-quality installers.

但我們確實意識到，由於勞動力的限制，我們必須採用不同的模式來確保安裝資源到位。因此，我們正在研究多種方法來實現這一點。這就是我們的看法。但重要的是，我們所做的一個方面是幫助他們培養高品質的安裝人員。

We'll take our next question from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort) 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, I wanted to ask you, you highlighted quite a few times about being a specialty story. Obviously, the CI earnings are maybe making that a little more challenging for people to embrace. And we've seen some pretty good devaluation in your stock over the last few months, almost akin to you being lumped in with some of the peak fears that are out there on some other maybe more commoditized names.

馬克，我想問你，你多次強調要成為一個專業的故事。顯然，CI 的獲利可能讓人們更難接受這一點。過去幾個月，我們看到你的股票大幅貶值，幾乎就像你被歸類到其他一些可能更商品化的公司的峰值恐慌中一樣。

So I guess, how do you see CI -- I mean is it going to fade and create a big step-down that sort of robs from the aggregate growth? As the specialty businesses grow, do you think it can stabilize? And I was just looking at consensus numbers, and it looks like something like 2% EBITDA growth in '22 and '23. Can you give us some inspiration that, that is inadequate?

所以我想，您如何看待CI——我的意思是，它會逐漸減弱，並造成大幅下滑，從而影響整體成長嗎？隨著特種業務的成長，您認為它會穩定下來嗎？我剛剛看了市場普遍預期的數據，2022年和2023年的EBITDA成長率預計在2%左右。您能給我們一些建議，看看這是否不夠嗎？

Yes. So Bob, thanks for the question. And look, we think we're making tremendous progress on changing our portfolio and our performance towards specialty. We've done the analysis. And I know all of you can go do it. But if you go look at how we've held up margins over the '18 to now or '17 to now as a total company, how we've delivered earnings performance, we're much more in the specialty category than in the commodity category of our peer set. The data is actually quite clear. At some point, I'll show it to you.

是的。鮑勃，謝謝你的提問。你看，我們認為我們在調整產品組合和業績以轉向特種產品方面取得了巨大進展。我們已經做了分析。我知道你們都可以去做。但如果你看看我們2018年至今，或者2017年至今，作為一家公司，我們的利潤率是如何保持的，我們的盈利表現如何，你會發現，我們更多地處於特種產品類別，而不是像同行那樣處於大宗商品類別。數據其實很清楚。到時候我會給你看。

So I think we've actually held up really well. There's no question that people sort of focus on the CI question right now. And the way I look at CI is it's an incredibly valuable part of our vertical integration and our reliability to our customers. We've proven the value to customers multiple times on how it supports that.

所以我認為我們實際上表現得非常好。毫無疑問，現在人們關注的是CI問題。我認為CI是我們垂直整合和客戶可靠性中極其寶貴的一部分。我們已經多次證明了它對客戶的價值，證明了它如何支持這一點。

And in times like this, where they get some expansion, while prices are catching up to raws and some other parts of the business, it actually gives us more stable earnings. That diversity actually creates economic stability. So I don't see what's wrong with that.

在這樣的時期，他們進行了一些擴張，價格也逐漸趕上原材料和其他業務的價格，這實際上為我們帶來了更穩定的收益。這種多元化實際上創造了經濟穩定。所以我認為這並沒有什麼不妥。

And as I look at '22, we certainly expect some moderation of CI in its spreads as we go into that year relative to this year. But when you look at all the growth that we have going for ourselves and improvements in the cost structure, we're actually quite confident we can deliver quite attractive earnings growth in '22 relative to '21, including the offset of the moderation in CI.

展望2022年，我們當然預計，進入2022年，CI的利差相對於今年會有所放緩。但考慮到我們自身的成長潛力以及成本結構的改善，我們其實非常有信心，2022年能夠實現相對於2021年相當有吸引力的獲利成長，這其中也包括CI利差放緩帶來的抵銷作用。

So when you look at it from a market's point of view, a lot of markets that are still going to be in recovery mode next year, whether it's auto, building construction, medical, aviation, you've got restocking that will still continue into next year, I think. And then you've got really steady growth markets like care chemicals, ag, water treatment, consumables that are about -- those sort of stable markets that are about 40% of our revenue.

所以，從市場的角度來看，許多市場明年仍將處於復甦模式，無論是汽車、建築、醫療或航空，我認為補貨活動將持續到明年。此外，還有一些真正穩定成長的市場，例如護理化學品、農業、水處理和消耗品，這些穩定的市場約占我們收入的40%。

On top of that, you've got all the innovation driving growth across the whole portfolio, whether it's performance films I just discussed; Tritan, we've hit on. We still got next-gen acoustics and HUD and interlayers growing. We've got Tetrashield and food and beverage packaging, textiles, et cetera. And then you got the circular economy driving more growth. And then we've got good, smart segmentation strategies in the business we're in. So we're in the right parts of the markets like luxury cars and EVs, et cetera.

除此之外，所有創新都推動著整個產品組合的成長，無論是我剛才討論的高性能薄膜，還是我們最近推出的Tritan。我們的下一代音響系統、HUD抬頭顯示器和中間膜產品仍在不斷發展。我們還有Tetrashield以及食品飲料包裝、紡織品等等。循環經濟也推動進一步的成長。此外，我們在自身業務領域擁有良好、明智的細分策略。因此，我們正處於豪華車、電動車等細分市場的正確位置。

And it's not just volume. You've got to remember all these things that are growing really well are high-value mix. The challenges we had in '19 and '20 were not spread, right? It was -- as a company, we're in the specialties. It was just that high-value mix coming off, and it's now coming back. And we said, you'll see the mirror image benefit of that, and you're seeing it this year and you'll see it next year.

這不僅僅是產量的問題。你必須記住，所有這些成長強勁的產品都屬於高價值產品組合。我們在2019年和2020年面臨的挑戰並非來自產品擴散，對吧？而是——作為一家公司，我們專注於專業領域。只是高價值產品組合的衰落，現在又回歸了。我們說過，你會看到它帶來的鏡像效應，今年你會看到，明年也會看到。

In addition to that, you got costs coming off by $100 million on the operational level, plus another $50 million in lower distribution and shutdown costs, sort of the onetime things. And then you've got where you think spreads might go and you've got increased growth spend. So when you put it all together, net, we're well positioned to deliver EPS growth in '22 relative to this year.

除此之外，營運成本減少了1億美元，加上5,000萬美元的分銷和停工成本，這些都是一次性支出。此外，利差也已確定，成長支出也增加。所以，綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們完全有能力在2022年實現每股收益相對於今年的成長。

We'll go to our next question from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將討論來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Arun Viswanathan 提出的下一個問題。

Maybe I could just ask a similar question to Bob's here. So if we look at '21 versus, say, '19 or even '22 versus '19 EPS, you're in the $9-or-so range this year. If we look at a 3-year average CAGR, maybe it's around 9%, which is definitely commendable and within your 8% to 12% earlier comments from a while back. I guess, is that still kind of how you're looking at it? And then maybe if you could just put a finer point on some of this. So if you look at next year, you have potentially some parts of the $50 million coming on from the recycling technology. Maybe CI falls off a little bit. But how much of AM and AFP is still left for recovery? If you could help us with that, that would be great.

也許我可以問一個和Bob類似的問題。如果我們比較21年和2019年，甚至22年和2019年的每股盈餘，你今年的每股盈餘約為9美元。如果我們看一下3年的平均複合年增長率，可能在9%左右，這絕對值得稱讚，也符合你之前提到的8%到12%的預測。我想，你現在還是這樣看待這個問題嗎？然後，你能不能更詳細地解釋一下這個問題。如果你展望明年，你可能會從回收技術中獲得5000萬美元的部分收益。 CI可能會略有下降。但是AM和AFP還剩下多少可以回收呢？如果你能幫我們解答一下，那就太好了。

So yes, we've been doing everything relative to '18, which was our last peak. And we're really excited that we're going to have EPS well above 2018. And then as I just laid out, we're confident to keep growing it from '21 into '22. And I think that everything we said at Innovation Day is still true, plus we've added a lot more growth from circular economy on to the Innovation Day story.

是的，我們一直在做著與2018年（也是我們上一個巔峰時期）相關的所有事情。我們非常興奮，我們的每股盈餘將遠高於2018年。正如我剛才所說，我們有信心在2021年到2022年繼續保持成長。我認為我們在創新日所說的一切仍然適用，而且，我們在創新日的故事中加入了更多來自循環經濟的成長。

So thinking about that growth rate of 8% to 12%, I think, is a reasonable way to think about next year at the EPS level. You got to remember, if we succeed in divestitures, that will have an impact on EBIT, but we'll be buying back stock to offset it. So all of our guidance and commentary today is not at the EBIT level, including the impact of divestitures.

因此，我認為，以每股盈餘 (EPS) 的水平來衡量明年的成長率，是合理的。需要記住的是，如果我們成功剝離資產，這將對息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 產生影響，但我們會回購股票來抵消這一影響。因此，我們今天的所有指引和評論，包括剝離資產的影響，都不是基於息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 的。

And I'm sorry, how much of AFP and AM do you think is still left for recovery?

抱歉，您認為還剩下多少 AFP 和 AM 需要恢復？

I think there's a lot of growth left in both businesses. As we look at Advanced Materials, we actually expect very strong growth in Advanced Materials next year relative to this year. So that story is going to continue to be strong and be even more compelling next year. So that's really exciting.

我認為這兩個業務都還有很大的成長空間。至於先進材料業務，我們實際上預計明年其成長將比今年更加強勁。所以，明年這股勢頭將持續強勁，甚至更加引人注目。這真的令人興奮。

When you look at AFP and look at the 2/3 of AFP, in other words, without tires and adhesives in it, the earnings this year are expected to be a bit better than 2018 levels when you look at that portfolio. And a lot of that is just tremendous growth in coatings in line with our customers in addition to good steady growth in things like ag and animal nutrition and care chemicals as well as fluids.

如果你看一下AFP，看看AFP的三分之二，也就是說，不包括輪胎和黏合劑，那麼今年的利潤預計會比2018年的水平略好一些。這很大程度上得益於塗料業務的大幅成長，這與我們的客戶需求相符，此外，農業和動物營養、護理化學品以及液體產品等也實現了良好的穩定成長。

So a good story across the board, and that even includes the aviation headwind when I say that about this year being better than 2018 for the 2/3 of AFP. So -- and that's also positioned to keep growing both through recovering markets and innovation next year. Not quite as much as AM because they're still earlier in their innovation cycle, but still delivering nice growth. So those 2 grow well. Fibers being quite stable, an improving cost structure gives you a very solid position.

所以總體來說，這是一個好兆頭，即使考慮到航空業的逆風，我還是認為今年對占美國聯邦航空管理局（AFP）2/3的行業來說會比2018年更好。因此，AFP也有望在明年透過市場復甦和創新繼續成長。雖然不如AM成長快，因為他們仍處於創新周期的早期階段，但仍保持著良好的成長動能。所以這兩家公司都發展得很好。光纖業務相當穩定，成本結構的改善將為你帶來非常穩固的市場地位。

We'll take our last question from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答德意志銀行的 David Begleiter 提出的最後一個問題。

Mark, first, on the molecular recycling facility, when would you be in a position to announce an additional capital investments, either as an addition to that facility or a new one? Could it be in '22? Do you think after that for another investment to -- in molecular recycling?

馬克，首先，關於分子回收設施，您什麼時候會宣布額外的資本投資，是作為該設施的擴建還是新建？會是在2022年嗎？您認為在那之後還會對分子回收設施進行另一項投資嗎？

Great question, David. And it sort of depends on the pace at which we go in our discussions with these customers and countries. But for our internal needs, I think that this first facility is what we're going to need for '23, '24. The -- so we're not going to be starting a new specialty plant until we get this one up and running.

大衛，這個問題問得好。這在某種程度上取決於我們與這些客戶和國家進行討論的節奏。但就我們的內部需求而言，我認為第一個工廠就是我們2023年和2024年所需要的。所以，在這個工廠建成並投入運作之前，我們不會再啟動新的特種化學品工廠。

But when you look at these other additional growth opportunities, I hope in the next 12 months or sooner, we could have an announcement around making progress on these other additional plants.

但是當你看到這些其他額外的成長機會時，我希望在未來 12 個月或更早的時候，我們可以宣布這些其他工廠的進展。

Very good. And just rolling on free cash flow. If you do achieve EPS growth, which you say will be attractive in 2022, how much above the $1 billion or $1.1 billion of cash flow do you think you could achieve next year?

非常好。而且只是依靠自由現金流。如果你們真的實現了每股盈餘成長（你們說2022年的每股盈餘會很有吸引力），那麼你認為明年的現金流能比10億美元或11億美元成長多少呢？

Yes, David. Thanks for the question. So as I think about it, as we talked about all the comps in being, I'll call it accretive now on the tires as we think about putting more cash to use on repurchases. It will be a headwind as we think about cash flow next year. So again, we're looking, I'll call it, to be in the $1 billion to $1.1 billion as a starting point. And that's taking into consideration the headwind that we'll see from the divestiture of the tires business.

是的，大衛。謝謝你的提問。所以，當我們討論所有可比較公司業績時，我認為輪胎業務現在正在增值，因為我們考慮投入更多現金用於回購。但考慮到明年的現金流，這將是一個阻力。所以，我們再次強調，我們的目標是，我稱之為10億到11億美元作為起點。這已經考慮到了輪胎業務剝離帶來的阻力。

So just to wrap up, I wanted to make a couple of quick comments really to my employees and to the investors, which is I can only sit here and talk about the success we've had this year, how well we performed even in holding up last year and our ability to actually deliver growth next year on top of this year is the employees. They've just done a phenomenal job. There's a lot of stress and fatigue out there when it comes to trying to keep this market supplied with how strong demand has been. And every day, they show up and just do remarkable work, not just in sort of operating, delivering against the demand we have in this marketplace and ensuring we get the raw materials that we need, but also keeping innovation alive. To get to $600 million of revenue from innovation this year on top of all of the chaos that comes from working our way through this dynamic environment is a real testament to the team, to our growth model and to the way they engage the marketplace. And I just wanted to express my deep appreciation to all of them for the phenomenal job that they've done.

最後，我想對我的員工和投資人簡短地談幾句。我之所以能坐在這裡談論我們今年的成功，談論我們去年的表現，以及我們明年能否在保持成長的基礎上繼續成長，都歸功於我們的員工。他們做得非常出色。在市場需求如此強勁的情況下，為了確保供應，我們承受著巨大的壓力和疲勞。但每天，他們都堅守崗位，出色地完成了工作，不僅在營運方面，滿足了市場需求，確保我們獲得所需的原材料，還保持了創新的活力。今年，在克服了各種挑戰之後，我們仍然能夠從創新中獲得6億美元的收入，這充分證明了我們團隊的實力、成長模式以及他們積極參與市場的方式。我謹向他們所有人表達深深的謝意，感謝他們所做的出色工作。

And with that, I want to thank you for all your questions and wish you all a good day.

最後，我要感謝你們提出的所有問題，並祝大家有個愉快的一天。

That's today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的通話就到這裡。感謝您的參與。現在您可以掛斷電話了。