伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Eastman Chemical Third Quarter 2020 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman's website, www.eastman.com. We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化工2020年第三季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議將在伊士曼網站www.eastman.com上進行直播。現在我們將把電話交給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部門的Greg Riddle先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, Maria, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe with Investor Relations.

謝謝瑪麗亞，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、高級副總裁兼首席財務官威利·麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain) 以及投資者關係部門的傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Yesterday after market close, in addition to our third quarter 2020 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, we posted slides in related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website, www.eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，除了發布 2020 年第三季財務業績新聞稿和向 SEC 提交 8-K 報告外，我們還在公司網站 www.eastman.com 的「投資者」部分發布了相關準備好的評論幻燈片。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in the company's third quarter 2020 financial results news release. During this call, in the slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-Q filed for second quarter 2020 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for third quarter 2020.

在開始之前，我將介紹兩點。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到一些關於我們計劃和預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在本公司2020年第三季財務業績新聞稿中詳細說明。在本次電話會議中，在幻燈片和準備好的發言稿中，以及在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，包括提交的2020年第二季度10-Q表和即將提交的2020年第三季度10-Q表，均已詳細說明。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain non core and unusual items and use an adjusted effective tax rate using the forecasted tax rate for the full year. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the third quarter financial results news release.

其次，本報告中提及的收益不包括某些非核心及非常規項目，並使用根據全年預測稅率計算的調整後有效稅率。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表及其他相關揭露資訊（包括排除項目和調整後項目的描述）可在第三季財務績效新聞稿中查閱。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Greg. Before we answer your questions, I want to take a few minutes to make some comments. We've had a strong recovery in the third quarter and solid performance through the first 9 months of 2020 despite the challenges associated with COVID-19. Our employees around the world have done a great job of taking actions necessary to keep their coworkers and themselves safe and healthy. We remain steadfast in this effort, especially as we see a resurgence of COVID-19 and continue to be committed to build a more inclusive teams so everyone can fully contribute at work.

謝謝，格雷格。在回答您的問題之前，我想花幾分鐘時間發表一些看法。儘管面臨新冠疫情帶來的挑戰，但我們在第三季度實現了強勁復甦，並在2020年前9個月保持了穩健的業績。我們遍佈全球的員工在採取必要措施保障自身和同事的安全健康方面表現出色。我們將繼續堅定不移地進行這項工作，尤其是在新冠疫情捲土重來的情況下，並將繼續致力於打造更具包容性的團隊，讓每個人都能在工作中充分貢獻力量。

As we think about the impact of the pandemic on our business, we're leading from a position of strength with our innovation-driven growth model, which continues to be at the heart of how we win. As we move through the third quarter, demand across our businesses improved, particularly for markets most impacted by COVID-19, especially auto, building construction, consumer durables and some other markets.

在我們思考疫情對業務的影響時，我們正憑藉著創新驅動的成長模式佔據優勢地位，這仍然是我們取勝的核心。隨著第三季的到來，我們各項業務的需求都有所改善，尤其是在受新冠疫情影響最大的市場，例如汽車、建築、耐用消費品和其他一些市場。

Our earnings were strong with almost a 60% improvement from the second quarter, driven by innovation and market development and the outstanding work of Eastman employees as they navigate this challenging and unprecedented environment. Additionally, we made progress in our plan to generate $25 million to $50 million of licensing technology earnings over the next few years with $14 million of earnings in the third quarter. End markets are recovering as the third quarter reflected a strong improvement. We saw a 10% sequential recovery in volume and mix from Q2 that got us back to within 5% of last year, which was limited by our planned shutdowns in CI.

我們的獲利表現強勁，較第二季成長近60%，這得益於創新和市場拓展，以及伊士曼員工在應對這一充滿挑戰且前所未有的環境中的出色工作。此外，我們計劃在未來幾年內實現2500萬至5000萬美元的許可技術收益，第三季度的收益為1400萬美元，並取得了進展。終端市場正在復甦，第三季的業績強勁成長。我們的銷量和產品組合較第二季度環比回升10%，已恢復到與去年同期5%的水平，但受CI工廠計劃停工的影響，這一增速有所下降。

On a 9-month basis, our volume and mix is down 6%, which is well above underlying markets. This resilient performance is due to our robust and diverse end market positions and the strength of our innovations. We realized a strong improvement in our most impacted and mixed impacted markets. In our resilient end market, the benefit we enjoyed in the first part of the year moderated as expected. That said, volume in our resilient markets is approximately flat year-over-year through the first 9 months. We see continued momentum in October and into November.

以前九個月計算，我們的銷售量和產品組合下降了6%，遠高於基礎市場。這種韌性表現得益於我們穩健多元的終端市場地位以及強大的創新實力。在受影響最嚴重和影響複雜的市場中，我們實現了強勁成長。在韌性十足的終端市場中，我們上半年獲得的收益如預期般放緩。即便如此，前九個月，我們這些韌性市場的銷售量與去年同期大致持平。我們預計10月和11月將持續保持成長動能。

Based on what we know today, we project that volume and mix of Eastman will approach fourth quarter levels of '19. A testament to the resiliency of our portfolio and the great work of the Eastman team has done to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19.

根據我們目前掌握的信息，我們預計伊士曼的銷量和產品組合將接近2019年第四季的水平。這證明了我們產品組合的韌性，以及伊士曼團隊在減輕新冠疫情影響方面所做的出色工作。

All that said, we continue to be focused on what we can control. Across the portfolio, we continue to create our own growth through our innovation-driven growth model, whether it's in performance films, specialty plastics or architectural coatings, among others, we are performing better than our recovering end markets. Prepared remarks are shared with you how we're leading the way in innovation and market development.

儘管如此，我們仍將專注於我們能夠掌控的領域。在整個產品組合中，我們繼續透過創新驅動的成長模式創造自身的成長。無論是在高性能薄膜、特殊塑膠或建築塗料等領域，我們的表現都優於正在復甦的終端市場。我們將與您分享一些準備演講稿，闡述我們如何引領創新和市場開發。

I'm excited about the early strong customer engagement with a new potentially revolutionary product in architectural space, which has the potential to become one of Eastman's top 3 growth platforms.

我很高興看到客戶早期對建築領域這款具有革命性潛力的新產品的強烈參與，該產品有可能成為伊士曼三大成長平台之一。

We've expanded our paint protection portfolio by launching a black PPF, expanding our position from clear products to opaque, a market with tremendous growth. In a world where sustainability is driving consumer behavior, we've had a number of wins across our sustainable product offering that leverage our innovative molecular recycling technologies. Assuming economic conditions remain as they currently are, we expect our fourth quarter adjusted EPS will be similar to the fourth quarter of 2019 adjusted EPS of $1.42. If the volume mix strength in October continues to the remainder of the quarter, our EPS could be above the prior year.

我們透過推出黑色PPF擴展了我們的漆面保護產品組合，將我們的市場定位從透明產品拓展至成長迅速的不透明產品市場。在永續發展驅動消費者行為的時代，我們利用創新的分子回收技術，在永續產品領域取得了許多成功。假設經濟狀況維持目前水平，我們預期第四季調整後每股盈餘將與2019年第四季1.42美元的調整後每股盈餘持平。如果10月份的銷售組合強勁動能持續到本季剩餘時間，我們的每股盈餘可能會高於去年同期。

Obviously, there's uncertainty of the impact of COVID resurgence, but we expect to provide an update in Q4 December. Finally, on cash, we've made a priority given the uncertainty. We've done a great job managing working capital, and in particular inventory. As a result of free cash flow for the first 9 months is the highlight of our company's history, and we are on track for a fourth consecutive year of greater than $1 billion of free cash flow. All this gives me confidence, we continue to be well positioned to manage in this uncertain environment and deliver long-term attractive earnings growth and sustainable value creation for our owners and all of our stakeholders.

顯然，新冠疫情反彈的影響存在不確定性，但我們預計將在12月第四季提供最新情況。最後，考慮到不確定性，我們將現金管理放在首位。我們在營運資金管理方面做得非常出色，尤其是在庫存方面。因此，前9個月的自由現金流是我們公司歷史上的亮點，我們預計連續第四年實現超過10億美元的自由現金流。所有這些都讓我充滿信心，我們將繼續在充滿不確定性的環境中保持優勢，並為我們的所有者和所有利益相關者實現長期具有吸引力的盈利增長和可持續的價值創造。

With that, I'll turn it over to Greg.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給格雷格。

Thanks, Mark. Malia, we are now ready for questions.

謝謝，馬克。瑪麗亞，我們現在可以提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today will come from Jeff Zekauskas of JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

In your script, you say that the impact of lower capacity utilization was $60 million in the third quarter versus $140 million in the second quarter. And then I think you also said that you thought your volumes in the fourth quarter year-over-year wouldn't be so different than what they were last year. And you also said that earnings would be flat relative to last year. But if you have a $60 million penalty in the third quarter, and that seems to go away in the fourth, shouldn't you just earn a lot more in the fourth quarter?

您在腳本中提到，產能利用率下降的影響在第三季為6000萬美元，而第二季為1.4億美元。然後，我記得您還提到，您認為第四季度的銷售量年比不會與去年有太大差異。您也提到，第四季的收益將與去年持平。但是，如果第三季有6000萬美元的損失，而這筆損失在第四季度似乎消失了，那麼第四季的收益不應該大幅增加嗎？

So Jeff, this is Willie. So let me start with the response. So as you've highlighted in Q3, we had a headwind on a year-over-year basis of roughly $60 million. And what I would highlight, in Q3, we actually sequentially reduced our inventories about 5% while volume was increasing 10%. As we think about where we sit at this point in time, we see volume levels being similar and approaching last year's level, while we expect, I'll call it, to slightly have higher capacity utilization.

傑夫，我是威利。我先來回答一下。正如你在第三季強調的那樣，我們比去年同期遭遇了約6000萬美元的逆風。我想強調的是，在第三季度，我們的庫存實際上較上季減少了約5%，而銷售量卻成長了10%。考慮到我們目前的狀況，我們發現銷售量與去年相似，並且接近去年的水平，同時我們預計，我稱之為略高的產能利用率。

So as we think about the year-over-year performance in Q4 and/or sequentially, we should have a slight tailwind, but it's not a full $60 million impact because you'll have to recall that volume was down quite substantially on a year-over-year basis, whereas it will be coming back. So you have to take the volume component of that, that partially offsets the $60 million.

因此，當我們考慮第四季度及/或整個季度的同比表現時，應該會略有回升，但不會達到6000萬美元的全部影響，因為你必須記住，銷量同比下降幅度相當大，而最終會回升。所以你必須把銷售部分算進去，這部分抵銷了6000萬美元的影響。

And look, the cost actions we took, Jeff, as well as improving utilization certainly is going to help the quarter. We said volumes are going to approach '19 levels, not get all the way back there. So we're seeing great recovery in the auto markets and B&T, et cetera. And -- but you also have some markets that are off like aviation, some specific coating additives in China that are still in the process of recovering. So we have a few markets off, netting out some of the recovering markets. And the ones that are off for very high mix value.

傑夫，你看，我們採取的成本控制措施以及提高利用率肯定會對本季有所幫助。我們之前說過，銷量會接近2019年的水平，但不會完全回到那個水平。所以我們看到汽車市場、B&T等等市場正在強勁復甦。但也有一些市場表現不佳，例如航空市場，中國一些特定的塗料添加劑市場仍在復甦過程中。所以我們有一些市場表現不佳，扣除了一些正在復甦的市場，以及那些組合價值非常高的市場。

So it's strong recovery, great momentum as we go into '21, but not quite all the way back on the sort of volume mix side, and you've got a bit of spread pressure as well as you go into the Q4 number with the improvement in increase in raw materials and energy costs, we've got some price contracts that lag and how you catch up to that better problem over time. Just in a quarter, you could cut that lag and some of the competitive pressures in tires. So when you net it all together, we definitely see a way to get back to '19 levels and earnings. And potentially better if the strength holds up, that obviously, with COVID lockdowns in Europe and, et cetera, we're going to have to see how that plays out.

因此，進入2021年，復甦勢頭強勁，但銷售組合尚未完全恢復。進入第四季度，隨著原材料和能源成本上漲的改善，我們面臨一些價差壓力，一些價格合約存在滯後問題，以及如何隨著時間的推移彌補這些滯後問題。只需一個季度，就能消除輪胎產業的滯後現象和一些競爭壓力。因此，綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們肯定有辦法恢復到2019年的水平和盈利。如果這種強勁勢頭持續下去，情況可能會更好，但顯然，鑑於歐洲等地實施了新冠疫情封鎖等措施，我們將拭​​目以待。

Okay. You said you have a goal of $25 million to $50 million in licensing revenues. And through the first 9 months, I think, you reported $18 million. So does that mean there's $7 million to go on the bottom end? Or is this $25 million to $50 million some kind of annual number?

好的。您之前說過，授權收入的目標是2500萬到5000萬美元。我記得前9個月，您報告的收入是1800萬美元。這是否意味著最低還有700萬美元的支出？或者說，這個2500萬到5000萬美元是一個年度數字？

Jeff, just to refer back to our January call, the $25 million to $50 million was between '20 and '22. So what I would say is this is great progress by the team. We're delivering on that front. And what you should expect is we'll probably have the confidence that we're at least in the middle of the range. And over the next couple of years, we can deliver on top of that.

傑夫，回顧我們一月份的電話會議，2500萬到5000萬美元是在2020年到2022年之間。所以，我想說的是，這是團隊的巨大進步。我們正在這方面取得進展。你可以期待的是，我們有信心至少處於這個區間的中間位置。在接下來的幾年裡，我們能夠實現更高的目標。

Yes. It's a great multiyear program, Jeff. We have a lot of incredibly valuable technology, some of which very much is on strategy for we're growing our specialties and some of which we've developed over time that doesn't really fit with where we want to go. So this is an MEG technology that allows you to successfully convert through gasification -- co-gasification into making a high-quality MEG product, which the current technology in China does not do.

是的。傑夫，這是一個很棒的多年期專案。我們擁有許多非常寶貴的技術，其中一些與我們發展專業領域所需的策略高度契合，而另一些則是我們隨著時間的推移而發展起來的，與我們的目標並不完全契合。所以，這項MEG技術可以讓你成功地透過氣化——共氣化——轉化為高品質的MEG產品，而中國目前的技術還無法做到這一點。

So we've seen strong engagement, and this is the first license to sort of do this. Obviously, there are other companies who are very interested in being in the MEG business in China. So we expect to get more of these licenses in the future, building on this first one. And then there's other normal licensing activity we have with some of our other technologies that are a little bit lower in value per license. But this is a great example. It's a little chunky when it shows up. But it's one we would expect to repeat again and again in the coming years.

我們看到了很多積極的參與，這是第一個這樣的授權。顯然，其他公司也對在中國開展MEG業務非常感興趣。因此，我們預計在未來，在這個基礎上，獲得更多這樣的授權。此外，我們也正在進行一些常規的授權活動，這些技術每個授權的價值略低。但這是一個很好的例子。雖然它看起來有點誇張，但我們預計未來幾年還會持續出現類似的情況。

Our next question will come from Bob Koort from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort)。

Mark, you talked about the October conditions prevail for the quarter. So does that mean better than typical from a seasonality standpoint? When I would presume November, December are usually weaker months. Or does it just mean typical seasonality from that October level? Trying to sort of gauge what you baked in, in terms of what may or may not be atypical this fourth quarter.

馬克，您提到了10月的情況。那麼，從季節性角度來看，這是否意味著比往年更好？我通常認為11月和12月是淡季。還是說，這僅僅意味著10月的水平符合往年季節性？我想評估一下，您之前預測的第四季度情況，哪些可能是或可能不是非同尋常的？

Yes. This is in the atypical category, Bob. So normally, you have a really strong third quarter and second quarter, and then things trail off in the fourth quarter as people -- we as well as our customers, sort of destock for cash reasons and the primary demand in some markets like B&C and other things slow down. That's normal.

是的。鮑勃，這屬於非典型情況。通常情況下，第三季度和第二季度的業績會非常強勁，然後在第四季度，由於我們以及我們的客戶出於現金原因而減少庫存，以及一些市場（例如B&C等）的主要需求放緩，業績會有所下滑。這很正常。

On a primary demand basis, some things will still slow down like building construction to some degree, but even that is showing some more strength than normal because of all the delays that occurred in the summer. So primary demand seems a little bit stronger, but the more significant driver of why we're going to have much better performance than a normal seasonal pattern is a number of our customers were like us, aggressively destocked inventory through the summer.

從主要需求來看，有些領域仍會放緩，例如建築施工，但即便如此，由於夏季出現的各種延誤，建築施工也比正常情況下表現得更強勁。因此，主要需求似乎略有增強，但我們業績遠超正常季節性模式的更重要驅動因素是，許多客戶像我們一樣，在夏季積極去庫存。

I think we can all acknowledge and see that demand came back in the third quarter, better than we expected. So people are really tight on inventory. The automotive companies are really tight. B&C is obviously very tight relative to the way demands come back, and that's true in consumer durables and a bunch of other markets. And so what you see is people trying to build back to normal inventory levels. I don't think they're trying to build to something excessive. They're just trying to get back to stable natural inventory levels to support the now -- the better demand than we probably expected in the second quarter, so that's all sort of good news.

我想我們都能看到，需求在第三季回升，而且比我們的預期好。所以大家的庫存真的很緊張。汽車公司的庫存非常緊張。相對於需求的回升，B&C 的庫存顯然非常緊張，耐用消費品和其他許多市場也是如此。所以你看到的是，人們正在努力恢復正常的庫存水準。我認為他們並沒有試圖過度增存。他們只是試圖恢復到穩定的自然庫存水平，以支撐目前——比我們第二季度預期的更好的需求——所以這都是好消息。

But normally, you've got this destocking going on, instead, you've got the sort of restocking back to normal levels that we can see. So that's going to give us a lot more stability, especially true in AM. We're seeing this both in the auto side as well as some of the durables but also to everywhere else. I mean we're running utilization flat out in CI. A number of products we're running flat out to support this demand and building action in the quarter. Did that answer your question, Bob?

但通常情況下，庫存會不斷減少，而現在我們看到的補貨情況會恢復到正常水準。這將為我們帶來更大的穩定性，尤其是在積層製造領域。我們看到這種情況不僅出現在汽車領域，也出現在一些耐用品領域，而且也出現在其他所有領域。我的意思是，我們在製造和分銷領域的利用率已經達到最高。為了滿足這一需求並支持本季的建設行動，我們正在全力生產許多產品。鮑勃，這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yes. Yes, absolutely. I mean, obviously, typically, the fourth quarter destock ramifications can be pretty negative, but it sounds like just the reverse this year. As you look to next year, your cash flow has been very impressive. As you contemplate having to rebuild that working capital in your own franchise for next year, have you sort of reconciled what that might be, what kind of drag on cash flow that could be for next year?

是的，絕對是。我的意思是，顯然，通常情況下，第四季度的去庫存影響可能相當負面，但今年的情況似乎恰恰相反。展望明年，你們的現金流一直非常可觀。當你考慮到明年必須重建自有品牌的營運資本時，你是否考慮過這可能帶來什麼後果，以及這可能會對明年的現金流造成什麼樣的拖累？

Bob, this is Willie. Let me highlight. We have factored, I'll call it, in the increased business activity. But I'd also highlight to you that we've made significant progress this year on, I'll call it, structurally changing the levels, and we're making investments in our integrated business planning on an enhanced level such that we ultimately have a pathway to preserve the gains this year and mitigate any headwinds on inventory with business activity.

鮑勃，我是威利。讓我強調一下。我們已經將業務活動的增加考慮在內。但我還要強調的是，我們今年在結構性變革方面取得了重大進展，我們正在對綜合業務規劃進行更高水平的投資，以便最終找到一條途徑來保持今年的收益，並通過業務活動來緩解庫存方面的任何不利因素。

Additionally, I would highlight that we will continue to leverage our accounts receivable and accounts payable programs. So as I sit here today, I see a pathway to a fifth consecutive year to greater than $1 billion in free cash flow.

此外，我想強調的是，我們將繼續充分利用應收帳款和應付帳款項目。因此，今天我坐在這裡，我看到了連續第五年實現超過10億美元自由現金流的前景。

Some of it is a natural hedge, Bob, where you've got earnings improving and inventory, to some degree, will come up, but lesser than in the past because of the investments really made, but those sort of actually hedge each other, right? So if EBITDA grows, the inventory comes, the value of the EBITDA is greater than the cost of inventory and that sort of balances each other out. CapEx will be a little bit higher, too, as we start ramping up some of our circular investments. But we've modeled this a lot and netted it out. We think it's going to be roughly sort of similar to this year.

鮑勃，這其中有些是自然對沖，盈利在增長，庫存也會有所增加，但由於實際投資的緣故，增幅會比過去有所下降，但這兩者實際上是相互對沖的，對吧？所以，如果息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）成長，庫存也會增加，EBITDA 的價值就會高於庫存成本，這樣就能互相抵銷。隨著我們開始增加一些循環投資，資本支出也會略有增加。但我們已經對此進行了大量建模，​​並進行了淨額計算。我們認為今年的增幅將與今年大致相同。

Our next question will come from Matthew DeYoe of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

Yes. So performance films seem to have somewhat of a blowout quarter. Why are we seeing so much demand for window tinting? Is this expected to continue? Or is there some sort of pent-up demand trend that wouldn't necessarily be obvious kind of on the back of the lockdowns?

是的。所以，高性能薄膜似乎迎來了一個井噴式成長的季度。為什麼我們看到車窗貼膜的需求如此之大？這種情況預計會持續下去嗎？還是說，是否存在某種被壓抑的需求趨勢，在封鎖期間不一定能顯現出來？

Yes. Well, let's start with performance films had a blow out a couple of years and blow out first 9 months of the year. So on the first 9 months, their volume mix is only down 5% in a market that's down 20%, and they're up year-over-year in the third quarter. So they're having a great year. And it's a combination of things. One, the window film business is very solid and always growing. Two, our paint protection films are growing tremendously fast at very high values. As that marketplace has just taken off, and we've talked to you about that over the years, and now we're even expanding from just clear into black or opaque products as we go into next year, which is going to give us a whole new addressable market.

是的。首先，高性能薄膜在過去幾年表現強勁，今年前九個月更是表現強勁。因此，在前九個月，他們的銷量組合在市場下滑20%的情況下僅下降了5%，而第三季的銷量則是年增。所以，他們今年表現不錯。這是多種因素共同作用的結果。首先，窗膜業務非常穩健，並且一直在成長。其次，我們的漆面保護膜成長速度驚人，價值也很高。由於漆面保護膜市場才剛起步，我們多年來一直在討論這個問題。現在，隨著明年的到來，我們的產品線將從單純的透明產品擴展到黑色或不透明產品，這將為我們帶來一個全新的潛在市場。

So a lot of growth potential there. But it's not just that. The bigger part, frankly, is an excellent channel strategy and a service model. We have an incredible team out there, especially in the key markets we serve, like North America, China and the rest of Asia that have instituted a far superior model, and how we support both the aftermarket dealers but also building these auto dealership programs where they can now sell these products as a value up with the car, which they're always looking for and where we sort of train, develop, support them in doing that at the auto dealerships.

所以那裡有很大的成長潛力。但不僅僅是這些。坦白說，更重要的是優秀的通路策略和服務模式。我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，尤其是在我們服務的關鍵市場，例如北美、中國和亞洲其他地區，他們已經建立了更卓越的模式。我們不僅支持售後市場經銷商，還建立了汽車經銷商項目，使他們能夠將這些產品作為與汽車一起出售的附加價值出售，這是他們一直在尋求的，而我們會在汽車經銷商處對他們進行培訓、發展和支持，幫助他們實現這一目標。

And we have huge relationships with the top 2 auto chains here in the U.S. as well as the big auto chains in China. So it's a combination of multiple things that's getting us to win great products, great new markets growing but an excellent service model that gives us durability.

我們與美國兩大汽車連鎖店以及中國的大型汽車連鎖店都保持著良好的合作關係。因此，多種因素的結合讓我們贏得了優質的產品、廣大的新興市場，而卓越的服務模式也讓我們得以長久發展。

And now we're going to add on also a whole new digital tool that dramatically improves the installability of the product with installers and that's very attractive and launching as we speak.

現在，我們還將添加一個全新的數位工具，該工具可以大大提高產品對安裝人員的可安裝性，而且非常有吸引力，並且即將推出。

That's helpful. And I was interested to pick your brain a little bit more on the new market for the heat transfer fluids. I mean I think that's one of the higher-margin businesses in AF&P, and clearly, expectations were pretty soft on the aero side. So can you talk maybe about growth there and the margin profile associated with that growth?

這很有幫助。我很想就傳熱流體的新市場向您請教一下。我的意思是，我認為這是AF&P利潤率較高的業務之一，而且顯然，航空領域的預期相當低。您能否談談該業務的成長情況，以及與此成長相關的利潤率狀況？

Sure. So if you go back 5, 10 years ago and say what was the business, it was primarily heat transfer fluids for chemical plants like polyester plants, et cetera. And that was really the predominant source, very attractive business, lots of growth in China, consuming it. But the market -- end markets have dramatically diversified. The first big new market was solar. So you have to use -- when you heat up these panels, these reflective panels out in the desert, you got to get the heat transferred to the turbine engine and our fluid does that.

當然。如果你回顧5年或10年前，看看當時的業務狀況，當時主要是為聚酯工廠等化工廠提供導熱油。這確實是主要的業務來源，非常有吸引力的業務，中國市場成長迅速，消費量龐大。但市場——終端市場——已經顯著多樣化。第一個重要的新興市場是太陽能。所以你必須使用——當你在沙漠中加熱這些太陽能板，這些反射板時，你必須將熱量傳遞到渦輪發動機，而我們的導熱油就是為此而生的。

So solar has been a huge driver of growth for us over the few -- last few years. And a new market that's really taken off for us is LNG. So they also consume and use these products in those facilities, and that's added on a whole another dimension. So while some of the traditional chemical markets are slowing down a bit, obviously, with different capital cycles. We are seeing these other markets deliver growth and enable us to have a lot more stability as well going forward in this business.

過去幾年裡，太陽能一直是我們成長的巨大動力。而我們真正起飛的新市場是液化天然氣。液化天然氣也在我們的設施中消費和使用這些產品，這又增添了另一個維度。雖然一些傳統化學市場顯然由於不同的資本週期而放緩，但我們看到其他市場正在實現成長，並使我們在未來的業務中擁有更大的穩定性。

Our next question will come from P.J. Juvekar from Citi Group.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 P.J. Juvekar。

In CI, you mentioned that you're running flat out. What are propane to propylene spreads? And also you're using more refinery propylene, how did all that play out in the quarter? And then just in CI, you also have a smaller ag business. How did that do? I guess last year, you had some tough comps. I guess this year should have more stability in that ag business.

在CI業務方面，您提到你們正在全力以赴。丙烷和丙烯的價差是多少？而且你們正在使用更多的煉油廠丙烯，所有這些在本季是如何表現的？此外，在CI業務方面，你們的農業業務規模也較小。情況如何？我想去年你們的可比業務表現不佳。我想今年農業業務應該會更穩定。

P.J., just first on the spreads. Obviously, as we think about the integrated spreads to our derivatives, with raw materials increasing here during the quarter. Our pricing lagged. So there was, I'll call it, some compression within the olefins. Obviously, on our RGP investment, we're still very positive on how that has provided a return and paid off and giving us a little more stability. But again, I thought the key thing is it's slight compression. And we also had highlight, had some, I'll call it, planned turnarounds like at our Singapore facility. That will give us some opportunity for a little bit higher volumes than we had in Q3 as we come out of those planned turnarounds.

P.J.，先來談談價差。顯然，考慮到我們衍生性商品的綜合價差，本季原物料價格上漲。我們的定價落後了。因此，我稱之為烯烴產品價格有所壓縮。顯然，對於我們的RGP投資，我們仍然非常看好它如何帶來回報，並為我們帶來更多穩定性。但我再次強調，關鍵在於它略微有所壓縮。此外，我們也進行了一些重點關注的計畫性週轉，例如在新加坡工廠。隨著這些計劃性週轉的完成，這將使我們有機會實現比第三季略高的產量。

And in ag, seasonally, ag always declines for us in the third quarter, P.J., there's a lot of build to get the products to the customers, the farmers. And by the third quarter, the plant takes over. So that always trends off for us. But this year was also more of a headwind than normal because one of our largest customers there had a very long shutdown in the quarter. And so that has a real mix impact. It's not just a volume impact on CI because the amines business is very high-value attractive business in CI. And so you feel both on the volume and mix. Some of it normal, some of it was unique to this quarter.

在農業方面，從季節性來看，P.J. 的農業銷售額在第三季度總是會下降，我們需要大量建設工廠才能將產品送到客戶和農民手中。到第三季度，工廠就會接手。所以這對我們來說總是趨勢良好。但今年也比往年更加困難，因為我們最大的客戶之一在本季停產了很長時間。所以這對產品組合產生了真正的影響。這不僅僅是對 CI 銷量的影響，因為胺類業務是 CI 中非常有價值和吸引力的業務。所以你會同時感受到銷售量和產品組合的變化。有些是正常的，有些是本季獨有的。

Great. And in your prepared comments, you talked about molecular recycling. Clearly, there's something that the world needs today. You talked about the happening in Tritan and Naia yarn fiber. Can you talk about what are the inputs to this molecular recycling? And what's the product quality? And when does it become economical?

太好了。在您準備好的評論中，您談到了分子回收。顯然，當今世界需要一些東西。您談到了Tritan和Naia紗線纖維的進展。能談談這種分子回收的投入是什麼嗎？產品品質如何？什麼時候才能實現經濟效益？

Sure. So we're incredibly excited about the circular economy. Over a decade ago, we've been focused on sustainability and how that is a critical driver of change in innovation in our industry. We saw that all the way back to Tritan when we were launching that in 2009 around health and wellness, natural resource efficiency, feeding the world -- a world. All those trends have been core. You've heard us talk about all of them and essential renovation. In fact, we require every new product development program to be connected to something sustainable, if it's going to be durable. That's been true for the last decade.

當然。我們對循環經濟充滿熱情。十多年前，我們一直專注於永續性，並將其作為產業創新變革的關鍵驅動力。早在2009年推出Tritan時，我們就看到了這一點，當時我們圍繞著健康福祉、自然資源效率以及養活世界——一個世界。所有這些趨勢都是核心。您已經聽到我們討論過所有這些趨勢以及必要的革新。事實上，我們要求每個新產品開發專案都必須與永續的理念相聯繫，這樣才能確保產品的持久耐用。過去十年來一直如此。

The circular economy is a whole new dimension of growth for the company. We're really excited about it. The reality is plastic waste is a crisis. It's just also ridiculous to waste that much carbon in the environment, we should be capturing and keeping other environment and reusing it. A lot goes into making that happen, and we can play a critical role in that. Obviously, a lot of infrastructure outside of our scope to get it to us, but we need to prove that it can be reprocessed, reused effectively.

循環經濟是公司一個全新的成長維度。我們對此感到非常興奮。現實情況是，塑膠垃圾是一場危機。在環境中浪費如此多的碳也是荒謬的，我們應該捕獲、保存並再利用其他環境產生的碳。要實現這一點需要付出很多努力，而我們可以在其中發揮關鍵作用。當然，我們需要建造許多基礎設施來運輸這些碳，但這超出了我們的能力範圍，我們需要證明這些碳可以被有效地再加工和再利用。

Mechanical recycling, which is the way it's done today, it's very energy efficient. So wherever you can do it, you should do it. Problem is, it requires extremely clean feedstock and as limitations on its quality as well as how many times you can reuse it mechanically. So while important, very limited to solving the total plastic problem. So molecular recycling is required. It's not an option. It's required to actually solve the plastic waste problem. And we're excited because we have 2 technologies that are commercial now that are going to prove that it's both commercial and scalable and economic returns for our shareholders to do so.

現今的機械回收方式非常節能。所以，只要能做，就應該去做。問題在於，它需要極度清潔的原料，而且原料的品質以及機械回收的次數都受到限制。因此，雖然分子回收很重要，但它在解決整個塑膠問題方面的作用卻非常有限。所以，分子回收是必要的。它不是一個選擇，而是真正解決塑膠垃圾問題的必需方法。我們很興奮，因為我們現在有兩項技術已經投入商業化，它們將證明這項技術既具有商業價值，又具有可擴展性，並且能為我們的股東帶來經濟回報。

And so those technologies, the first is what you're mentioning around cellulosic. So we have the ability to do reforming with our gasifier. And so instead of gasifying coal, we can reform waste plastic and return that into feedstocks for making our cellulosic plastics. That includes our Naia yarns as well as the thermoplastics we sell in specialty plastics and it's a huge opportunity. We already were picking up a lot of momentum from sustainability on these products because in the yarn, 60% is bio content from FSC certified sustainably grown forests. That alone was driving a lot of growth for us.

這些技術，首先就是您提到的纖維素技術。我們有能力用氣化爐重整。因此，我們不用氣化煤炭，而是可以重整廢塑料，並將其轉化為生產纖維素塑料的原料。這包括我們的Naia紗線以及我們銷售的特殊塑料中的熱塑性塑料，這是一個巨大的機會。我們已經從這些產品的可持續性中獲得了巨大的動力，因為紗線中60%的成分來自FSC認證的可持續種植森林的生物材料。僅此一點就為我們帶來了巨大的成長動力。

I mean if you look at womenswear this year for us, our volume is flat last -- relative to last year, where the market is down 30%. So we're seeing tremendous success there in that part of the market and that also will go into thermoplastic. So we are the largest player by far in ophthalmics, in sunglasses, eyewear for the high end plastic that goes in those frames, Marshawn, one of the key leaders in that market already launched with us using our recycled content to have that offer. So we see a lot of opportunities to grow the cellulosic plastics, even opportunities in electronics, toys, even cellulose plastics is an opportunity in a market that we see.

我的意思是，如果你看看我們今年的女裝業務，你會發現去年的銷量與去年持平，而去年的市場下降了30%。所以我們在這個市場領域取得了巨大的成功，而這部分市場也將進入熱塑性塑膠領域。到目前為止，我們是眼科、太陽眼鏡和眼鏡領域最大的供應商，因為這些鏡架需要使用到高端塑膠。 Marshawn是這個市場的主要領導者之一，他已經與我們合作，使用我們的再生材料來提供這種產品。因此，我們看到纖維素塑料有很多成長機會，甚至在電子產品、玩具領域，甚至纖維素塑料，都是我們看到的市場機會。

So on that side, tremendous opportunity, a lot of growth allows us to grow in existing applications. It allows us to grow new applications like electronics, where we're not today in opaque applications, and it comes at a higher margin. And the polyester technology is the same thing, P.J. We've got our Tritan Renew product already getting orders from 2 iconic brands like CamelBak and Nalgene. We have a number of customers working with us in cosmetics, in ophthalmics as well, durables, more hydration customers as well as single-use plastics.

所以在這方面，巨大的機會和巨大的成長潛力讓我們能夠在現有應用領域中獲得成長。這使我們能夠拓展新的應用領域，例如電子產品，而目前我們還沒有涉足不透明應用領域，而且利潤率更高。聚酯技術也是如此，P.J. 我們的Tritan Renew產品已經獲得了CamelBak和Nalgene兩大標誌性品牌的訂單。我們與許多客戶合作，涵蓋化妝品、眼科、耐用品、補水產品以及一次性塑膠等領域。

So when you look across those 2 markets. As of now, we already have 100 customers doing trialing with us across all these different markets and opportunities around these 2 technologies to grow the volumes as well as get a better premium. And we know we can get the better premium, we're getting it now. And if you look at a better, broader market about how important this is, food-grade PET recycled in Europe is going at a substantial premium to sort of virgin PET. So markets are willing to pay and support the investment necessary to solve this problem. So a great return on investment for everyone. So we're really excited about this. We think it's a great way to defend our existing business, grow our businesses and solve a real challenge in the world that we need to resolve.

所以，放眼這兩個市場。截至目前，我們已經有100家客戶在所有這些不同的市場和機會中與我們合作，圍繞這兩項技術來增加產量並獲得更高的溢價。我們知道我們可以獲得更高的溢價，我們現在就得到了。如果你站在一個更廣闊、更廣闊的市場角度來看這一點的重要性，你會發現，歐洲食品級PET的回收價格遠高於原生PET。因此，市場願意支付並支持解決這個問題所需的投資。這對每個人來說都是一筆豐厚的投資回報。我們對此感到非常興奮。我們認為這是一個捍衛現有業務、發展業務並解決我們需要解決的全球真正挑戰的絕佳途徑。

Our next question will come from Alex Yefremov from KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Alex Yefremov。

Mark, just to continue on the subject, have you made any progress in your decision-making on methanolysis project? Are you any closer to investment or defining the economics for that business?

馬克，繼續聊聊這個主題，你在甲醇分解計畫的決策上有什麼進展嗎？你距離投資或確定這個項目的經濟效益還有多遠嗎？

Yes. So methanolysis is key to our strategy. The -- it is a meaningful advancement to build one of those plants, and we're close to refining and finalizing the details of exactly when we're going to build it. We're committed to making this investment. We believe it's the right thing to do. The economics are very attractive for all the reasons I just mentioned.

是的。甲醇分解是我們策略的關鍵。建造這樣的工廠是一項意義重大的進步，我們即將完善並最終確定具體的建造時間。我們致力於進行這項投資。我們相信這是正確的選擇。由於我剛才提到的所有原因，其經濟效益非常誘人。

And in the January call and the fourth quarter call, we'll provide you more details as we're just finishing up the final analysis of timing and capital scope, et cetera.

在一月份的電話會議和第四季度的電話會議上，我們將為您提供更多詳細信息，因為我們剛剛完成對時間和資本範圍等的最終分析。

And just to follow-up on that, Mark, is it fair to say that regardless of what decision you make with that methanolysis project, your kind of free cash flow parameters that you outlined for next year are still there, $1 billion plus with potential methanolysis CapEx?

馬克，為了跟進這個問題，是否可以這樣說，無論您對甲醇分解項目做出什麼決定，您為明年概述的自由現金流參數仍然存在，即潛在的甲醇分解資本支出為 10 億美元以上？

Yes, that includes -- when we were talking about free cash -- the free cash flow earlier, that includes the capital for methanolysis. That's the reason CapEx would go up next year. We've already built a lot of specialty capacity. So where we believe we'll have tremendous growth, are we seeing great recovery where we could get back to almost '19 levels in the fourth quarter of this year. You got to remember, back in '18, we built a lot of plants, right? A lot of different specialty plants to support growth and Tritan and a number of other products, ketones, et cetera.

是的，這包括——我們之前談到的自由現金——自由現金流，包括甲醇分解的資本。這就是明年資本支出增加的原因。我們已經建造了許多特種產品產能。因此，我們相信我們將實現巨大的成長，我們是否會看到強勁的復甦，並有望在今年第四季恢復到接近2019年的水平。你得記得，在2018年，我們建造了很多工廠，對吧？許多不同的特種工廠來支持成長，以及Tritan和其他一些產品，酮類等等。

And so we're well positioned in our cost structure to support growth. The one exception is the circular economy, which is relatively new. And we are completing in this year an expansion of our performance films capacity to support its tremendous growth. So I think we're in good position on that. Our ability to do all that is the testament to our team's operational excellence. We've made a lot of investments in the business operating model and how we operate our company in the systems on how we're managing production, and we're continuing to make more investments on this to be much more efficient in our working capital, so we can transfer that improvement into growth capital.

因此，我們的成本結構已做好充分準備，能夠支援成長。唯一的例外是循環經濟，它相對較新。我們今年將完成高性能薄膜產能的擴張，以支持其迅猛成長。所以我認為我們在這方面處於有利地位。我們能夠做到這一切，證明了我們團隊的卓越運作。我們在業務營運模式、公司營運方式、生產管理系統等方面投入了大量資金，並將繼續增加這方面的投資，以提高營運資本的效率，從而將這種改進轉化為成長資本。

Our next question comes from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, just on your cost savings, I believe about $100 million of these $150 million are somewhat temporary interim cost savings. How should we think about how they flow back into the cost base in 2021?

馬克，就您的成本節約而言，我認為這1.5億美元中大約有1億美元是暫時的成本節約。我們該如何考慮這些成本在2021年如何回流到成本基礎中呢？

David, I'm going to let Willie take that one.

大衛，我要讓威利拿這個。

Sure. David, thanks. As we think about the $150 million of actions that we're taking this year, and we've highlighted 2/3 of those are discretionary. We're trying to match those as you think about with the level of business activity. I would highlight that we do expect, over the long term, that some of that discretionary spend would become structural as well as we think about the leveraging of technologies and how we do business.

當然。 David，謝謝。考慮到我們今年將採取的1.5億美元行動，我們已經強調其中三分之二是可自由支配的。正如您所想，我們正在努力將這些支出與業務活動水平相匹配。我想強調的是，我們確實預計，從長遠來看，部分可自由支配的支出將變成結構性支出，同時我們也在考慮如何利用技術以及我們如何開展業務。

But fundamentally, as we think about 2021, we have cost actions that include site shutdowns as well as, I'll call it, labor cost actions that are going to approach $100 million, and we're taking actions on those this year. So as you think about 2021, we will not only generate cost savings that offset any of the discretionary that's flowing back. We actually expect through digitization, the integrated business planning and other network optimizations to actually give us capacity to invest in growth and capabilities. And it's with that confidence that we're going to deliver $150 million net to about $225 million gross as we go into 2021.

但從根本上講，展望2021年，我們採取的成本措施包括關閉工廠以及（我稱之為）人工成本措施，這些措施的支出將接近1億美元，而我們今年正在採取這些措施。因此，展望2021年，我們不僅將實現成本節約，抵銷任何回流的可自由支配支出。我們實際上期望透過數位化、綜合業務規劃和其他網路優化，真正賦予我們投資於成長和能力提升的能力。正是憑藉著這種信心，我們將在2021年實現1.5億美元的淨利和約2.25億美元的毛利。

And much of those actions are already in play, and we're making strong progress this year so that those structural actions are in place as we start 2021. As we think about 2022, we expect that to grow to a total of $200 million net and beyond.

其中大部分行動已在實施中，今年我們取得了重大進展，以便在 2021 年開始時這些結構性行動已經到位。展望 2022 年，我們預計這一數字將成長到 2 億美元甚至更多。

Very helpful. And Mark, just on the 1/3 of AF&P that has performed fully over the years. I know you suspended in a sense any actions during the pandemic. But as you head into '21 for us have been able to improve these businesses through further cost actions and each thinking any different about the role this 1/3 of the business going forward in the Eastman portfolio?

非常有幫助。馬克，關於AF&P這1/3的業務，這些年來一直表現良好。我知道疫情期間，您暫停了某種程度上的任何行動。但隨著2021年，我們透過進一步的成本行動，已經能夠改善這些業務。你們每個人對這1/3的業務在伊士曼投資組合中未來的角色有什麼不同的看法嗎？

Thanks, David. So look, we've always been a disciplined portfolio manager. It was a while ago, when we had our significant portfolio transformation. But we've sold off a lot of underperforming businesses in our history, and we've had very successful acquisitions of great specialty businesses to give the portfolio the strength not just in the stability of revenue that you're seeing this year. And let's not forget, we started with a trade war and then COVID.

謝謝，大衛。所以，你看，我們一直是一位嚴謹的投資組合經理人。不久前，我們進行了重大的投資組合轉型。但我們歷史上出售過許多表現不佳的業務，也成功收購過一些優秀的專業業務，這不僅增強了投資組合的穩定性，也增強了今年的收入穩定性。別忘了，我們一開始就經歷了貿易戰，然後又經歷了新冠疫情。

Over the last 2 years, we've shown, I think, good resilience in the top line with this portfolio, but also tremendous cash flow with the value of the acquisitions. So I think we're good at being disciplined. And as we said, we saw 2 businesses, tires and adhesives, that we're developing instability that wasn't consistent with our strategy, especially as part of AFP and needed to address that. I think we've made great progress on managing the cost structures, especially in tires, where we're going to take out a couple of plants and improve its cost structure in a meaningful way and that allows us to lever up our new plant, that's a much lower cost plant as well in tires.

在過去兩年裡，我認為我們的投資組合不僅展現了良好的營收韌性，而且收購帶來的現金流也十分可觀。所以我認為我們很擅長自律。正如我們所說，我們發現輪胎和黏合劑這兩個業務正在出現不穩定的跡象，這與我們的策略不符，尤其是在作為AFP的一部分時，我們需要解決這個問題。我認為我們在成本結構管理方面取得了很大進展，尤其是在輪胎領域。我們將關閉一些工廠，並以有意義的方式改善其成本結構，這將使我們能夠充分利用新工廠，新工廠的成本也將大大降低。

And then innovation is also going really well in both businesses. But the reality is the tires business has really challenged in the competitive dynamics. The ADD (anti-dumping duties) tariffs that got put in place shoving China tires back into China. Then the broader trade war with China, kicked off by Trump, just created a huge drop in demand, while competitive capacity is coming online, and that just created a food fight at the tire company level, as you can see, and at our level with our competitors in this business.

兩家公司的創新也進展順利。但現實是，輪胎業務在競爭格局中面臨嚴峻挑戰。美國實施的反傾銷稅（ADD）迫使中國輪胎被迫回流中國。隨後，川普挑起的中美貿易戰導致需求大幅下降，而競爭性產能正在逐漸顯現，正如你所見，這在輪胎公司層面引發了一場“食物大戰”，在我們與競爭對手之間也是如此。

So the volume recovery has been great in the back half of this year, and the earnings in the back half of tires will be much better than the first half. But it's still a competitive environment and a headwind relative to '19. And so that's one we're going to do everything we can to improve the business. The innovation is giving us the ability to sustain premiums above our competitors in a meaningful way. But it's a business where we're going to continue looking for either JV or divestiture options. And as -- hopefully, we'll get to stability at some point here with COVID and be able to sort of pursue that. But we're committed to dealing with the portfolio.

今年下半年，輪胎銷售復甦勢頭強勁，下半年的獲利將遠好於上半年。但與2019年相比，目前的競爭環境依然激烈，情勢也不樂觀。因此，我們將竭盡全力改善業務。創新使我們能夠以有效的方式維持高於競爭對手的溢價。但對於這項業務，我們將繼續尋求合資或剝離的方案。希望新冠疫情能最終穩定下來，並且能夠逐步實現這一目標。我們將持續致力於妥善管理產品組合。

Adhesives is actually holding up relatively well in 2020 relative to '19, volume is actually up about 5%. Price is stable to the back half of '19, managing cost there like everywhere else. That business is stable. Innovation is getting a lot of great traction. Our APOs are really winning in the marketplace with superior environmental footprint as well as better sprayability and allows you to lose less resin, so great growth there. Great growth, we've talked to you a number of times about our low odor, low VOC resins that we've launched.

2020 年黏合劑業務的表現實際上與 2019 年相比保持了相對良好的勢頭，銷量實際上增長了約 5%。價格在 2019 年下半年保持穩定，成本控制與其他行業一樣良好。該業務保持穩定。創新正在獲得巨大的發展動力。我們的 APO 樹脂憑藉著卓越的環境足跡、更好的噴塗性能以及更少的樹脂損耗，在市場上贏得了真正的勝利，因此該業務取得了巨大的成長。成長勢頭強勁，我們已經多次與您討論過我們推出的低氣味、低 VOC 樹脂。

So it's stabilizing, but we're also still looking for opportunities to improve its performance if we can through partnership, and how we continue to improve that business. So we're still working it. It's not going as fast as we liked at the beginning of the year with COVID.

所以情況正在趨於穩定，但我們仍在尋找機會，透過合作來提升業績，並持續改善這項業務。所以我們仍在努力。受新冠疫情影響，年初的進展不如我們預期的那麼快。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Mark, maybe you could just touch on what you're seeing in building and construction. In the prepared remarks, you talked about benefiting from the DIY market. So how big is that for you versus sort of regular construction? And as we think about going into next year, I know you have some innovation, I see the optifilm in the deck. But as we go into next year, if DIY sort of softens a little bit, how is that going to impact the portfolio? Or do you have other things that will come back to offset that?

馬克，您能否簡單談談您在建築業看到的情況。在準備好的發言中，您提到了DIY市場帶來的利益。那麼，與常規建築相比，DIY市場對您來說有多大？展望明年，我知道您有一些創新，我看到了Optifilm的示範。但是，進入明年，如果DIY市場略有減弱，這將如何影響您的投資組合？或者，您還有其他因素可以抵消這種影響？

So in our coatings business, roughly half of our coatings business is B&C and half is transportation roughly. And on the auto side, remember, again, half OEM, half refinished. But on the B&C side, we are more weighted towards residential than commercial, which positions us well for benefiting from the DIY demand buildup. So we certainly are seeing the benefit. Our additives that go into architectural paint did quite well, consistent with what you've heard from the architectural coating companies in the third quarter. So we're tracking with that fairly well.

在我們的塗料業務中，大約一半的塗料業務來自商業和住宅市場，另一半來自運輸市場。在汽車方面，請記住，一半是原廠漆，一半是翻新漆。但在商業和住宅市場方面，我們更專注於住宅市場而非商業市場，這使得我們能夠從DIY需求的成長中獲益。因此，我們確實看到了收益。我們用於建築塗料的添加劑表現相當不錯，這與你們從建築塗料公司第三季聽到的情況一致。因此，我們正在很好地跟踪這一情況。

It's not a huge part of the revenue -- total revenue of AFP but it is helpful, combined with the stability we're getting in Care Chemicals, the great performance we've had in heat transfer fluids that's offset the headwinds or some of the headwinds, I should say, and aviation fluids. Innovation is helping, too, as we talked about in the growth story around optifilm. So it's market recovery. It's good positions with the winners in the marketplace that we always focus on and a great example of the sort of resiliency of our portfolio and how it provides stability where, well, some things might be challenged, other parts do well and that sort of balances out nicely.

這在AFP的總收入中佔比不大，但很有幫助，再加上我們在護理化學品業務中的穩定性，以及我們在傳熱流體業務中的出色表現，抵消了部分不利因素，或者應該說是部分不利因素，還有航空流體業務。正如我們在Optifilm的成長故事中所提到的，創新也扮演了幫助。所以，這是市場復甦。我們始終關注的是市場贏家的良好地位，這很好地體現了我們產品組合的韌性，以及它如何在某些領域可能面臨挑戰，而其他領域表現良好，並由此實現良好的平衡，從而提供穩定性。

Okay. And just on Advanced Materials, obviously, the volume performance all year, and obviously, it's been a challenging year, has been very strong, and it seems like a lot of it's innovation-driven. But as we think about going into next year, presumably, the innovation continues to compound. But are there parts of that portfolio that have struggled this year that we will actually see some recovery in next year? Or is it just going to kind of be steady as she goes?

好的。就先進材料業務而言，顯然，全年的銷售表現強勁，這顯然是充滿挑戰的一年，而且似乎很大程度上是由創新驅動的。展望明年，創新可能會繼續複合成長。但是，在該業務組合中，今年表現不佳的部分，明年是否會有所復甦？還是會一直保持穩定？

No, AM is doing really well. So I wouldn't call it struggling, but obviously, demand and transportation was down this year. So we certainly took an impact in Advanced Materials, especially in the second quarter. When our customers shut their plants down and we shut our plants down accordingly in interlayers. So we took a hit there. Obviously, even performance films, while it did well, was still down year-over-year and faced some challenges there. But overall, I'd say the portfolio is doing great. I mean it's got innovation driving growth across all 3 main elements of it, especially plastics has been incredibly steady through this year, where things like some durables were off in the second quarter, but we had tremendous sort of COVID-driven strength in shrink for packaging that goes into grocery stores, our sneeze guards, the polymers that we make has great chemical resistance for cleaning.

不，積層製造業務表現非常好。所以我不會說它陷入困境，但顯然，今年需求和運輸量下降了。所以我們的先進材料業務肯定受到了影響，尤其是在第二季。當我們的客戶關閉他們的工廠時，我們也相應地關閉了夾層工廠。所以我們在這方面受到了打擊。顯然，即使是高性能薄膜，雖然表現不錯，但同比仍然下降，並且面臨一些挑戰。但總的來說，我認為產品組合表現良好。我的意思是，創新推動了所有三個主要領域的成長，尤其是塑膠業務今年一直非常穩定。儘管第二季一些耐用品的銷量有所下降，但我們在進入雜貨店的收縮包裝方面獲得了巨大的新冠疫情驅動力，我們的防噴嚏罩，我們生產的聚合物具有很強的耐化學性，便於清潔。

So it's very popular for all these sneeze guards you're seeing in stores or restaurants, et cetera. And see you had growth in that offsetting some of the weakness and good price stability relative to raw materials, delivering good success. And you've seen the snap back already, right? The earnings in the third quarter are better than the first quarter of this year. So we've had great snap back, volumes almost getting back to last year's level with the rebound in automotive and the great performance in performance films that I talked about earlier.

所以，你在商店、餐廳等等看到的那些防噴嚏保護罩都很受歡迎。而且，你們在這方面取得了成長，抵消了部分疲軟的影響，而且價格相對於原材料而言保持了良好的穩定性，取得了不錯的業績。你已經看到了反彈，對吧？今年第三季的收益比第一季好。所以，我們經歷了強勁的反彈，隨著汽車行業的反彈以及我之前提到的高性能薄膜的出色表現，銷量幾乎恢復到了去年的水平。

So I think this business is really on track to deliver a great result this year, but build on it with continued great results next year. Even in interlayers, which we didn't talk much about, we've launched a number of new products. We've enjoyed a lot of success with our acoustics and head-up display premium products. We've told you we've been working on next-gen for all of those, and we've had great wins on all 3 fronts.

所以我認為這項業務今年的業績非常可觀，並在此基礎上繼續保持優異的業績。即使在我們之前很少提及的中間膜領域，我們也推出了許多新產品。我們的聲學產品和平視顯示器高階產品取得了巨大成功。我們之前也提到過，我們一直在為所有這些產品開發下一代產品，並且在這三個方面都取得了巨大的成功。

We've had a next-gen acoustic product with superior sound dampening, just get selected by one of the leading sort of EV OEMs out there on 2 of their iconic models. Noise is a huge issue in the EVs because you've lost the sound of the combustion engine. So sound dampening in a variety of places in the car is critical. And we -- and the biggest place where you get sound coming into a car is actually the window. So we play a critical role in addressing some of those issues. We've had a multifunctional product we've been working on that is much more difficult for our competitors to do that combined solar rejection, acoustic and HUD, all in one. And it's been just adopted by a leading Japanese OEM, and we've had great success also on our next-gen HUD.

我們研發了一款具有卓越隔音效果的新一代聲學產品，並被一家領先的電動車原始設備製造商在其兩款標誌性車型上採用。噪音是電動車面臨的一大問題，因為電動車會失去內燃機的噪音。因此，在車內各個位置進行隔音至關重要。而我們——車內最大的噪音來源其實就是車窗。因此，我們在解決這些問題方面發揮關鍵作用。我們正在研發一款多功能產品，它將陽光阻隔、隔音和HUD功能集於一身，這是我們競爭對手難以做到的。這款產品剛剛被一家領先的日本原始設備製造商採用，而且我們的新一代HUD也取得了巨大的成功。

It's in trials right now with a leading German OEM that's going to be part of their augmented reality HUD that they're building, and that market will continue to grow. So a lot of success there. Tritan is doing great. And then you've got the circular economy piling on top of this, as I mentioned earlier, delivering a lot of growth on many different fronts and the portfolio is diverse and gave its stability. So we feel good about that.

目前，該公司正在與一家領先的德國汽車製造商進行測試，該技術將成為其正在開發的擴增實境HUD的一部分，並且該市場將持續成長。因此，我們在這方面取得了巨大的成功。 Tritan的表現非常出色。此外，正如我之前提到的，循環經濟也在此基礎上蓬勃發展，在許多不同領域實現了顯著增長，產品組合多元化，並保持了穩定性。因此，我們對此感到十分滿意。

Our next question will come from Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Mark, just a follow-up on kind of the auto side. You just talked about acoustics and heads up displays, et cetera. But I guess part of the reason why you're outperforming the auto OEM builds is due to paint protection that got some nice airplay in your remarks. Can you talk about the growth prospects there? I guess in the market segmentation there because I guess my thought was that, that was more geared towards kind of hiring a vehicle. So that might suggest that you're in the early innings of being able to roll out that product as you move to more mainstream on a base. Can you spend a moment or 2 describing the growth prospects there?

馬克，我想跟進一下汽車方面的問題。您剛才談到了音響系統和平視顯示器等等。但我想，你們的業績優於汽車原廠配件的部分原因是車漆保護，這一點在您的演講中得到了很好的體現。您能談談這方面的成長前景嗎？我想是市場細分，因為我之前的想法是，這更傾向於租車。這可能表明，隨著你們逐步走向主流，你們正處於推出該產品的早期階段。您能花點時間描述一下這方面的成長前景嗎？

Yes, it's tremendous growth opportunities, Frank. It's a segment that been growing and it's got growth opportunities both geographically as well as within the category. So you're right, it started out with very high-end hyper-cars and expensive cars for people to protect them. It's already starting to move into that normal luxury market and the mid-tier market even. Especially in China, it's amazing. The number of people who are interested in sort of protecting their car, which for them is a very significant investment.

是的，弗蘭克，這蘊藏著巨大的成長機會。這個細分市場一直在成長，無論是在地理上還是在產品類別中都存在成長機會。所以你說得對，它最初是為高端超級跑車和昂貴的汽車提供保護。現在，它已經開始進入普通豪華車市場，甚至中階車市場。尤其是在中國，這令人驚嘆。對汽車保護有興趣的人數之多，對他們來說是一項非常重大的投資。

And so there's a lot of growth and addressable market in front of us in this -- on the markets. And while it's growing really well in China, North America, we're at very early stages of this growing in Europe. So that's a whole another region of growth for us on top of growing the category. So we believe these sort of very strong double-digit growth rates will continue for quite some time.

因此，在市場上，我們面前還有巨大的成長空間和潛在市場。雖然我們在中國和北美的成長勢頭良好，但歐洲市場仍處於起步階段。因此，除了擴大產品類別之外，歐洲市場對我們來說是另一個成長點。因此，我們相信這種強勁的兩位數成長率將持續相當長一段時間。

So we should be dialing in greater than auto OEM growth for EMN for the near future, near or midterm future?

那麼，在不久的將來，或者說在中期，我們應該為 EMN 設定比汽車 OEM 更高的成長目標嗎？

Absolutely. In Advanced Materials, that's true. In automotive, in coatings, I'd say we're tracking more with the market.

確實如此。在先進材料領域確實如此。在汽車和塗料領域，我想說我們更關注市場動態。

Okay. Great. Great. And then a question for Willie. You talked about $600 million plus in net debt paydown in '20 implying $250 million or so here in the fourth quarter. How should we start thinking about '21 in terms of the prior uses of cash and expectations on debt pay down in '21?

好的。太好了。然後問威利一個問題。您提到2020年淨債務償還額超過6億美元，這意味著第四季淨債務償還約2.5億美元。那麼，從先前的現金使用情況和21年債務償還預期來看，我們該如何考慮21年的情況？

Yes, Frank. On the capital allocation front, our priorities have not changed. We've increased our dividend for 10 consecutive years, and that's an important mechanism for us returning cash to stockholders. Also, to your point, we're committed to our investment-grade credit rating. And 2021 will really depend on the pace of economic and economic recovery, but we will continue to stay focused on getting our debt-to-EBITDA ratio closer to that 2.5x. Here at the end of Q3, our net debt is about, I'll call it, 3x our leverage. And also, we're committed to offsetting the dilution right now. And obviously, the pace of EBITDA growth will be as we think about allocating beyond that in 2021.

是的，弗蘭克。在資本配置方面，我們的重點並沒有改變。我們已經連續10年增加股息，這是我們向股東返還現金的重要機制。另外，正如您所說，我們致力於維持投資等級信用評級。 2021年的實際表現將取決於經濟和經濟復甦的速度，但我們將繼續致力於將債務與EBITDA比率（債務/EBITDA）控制在接近2.5倍的水平。截至第三季末，我們的淨債務大約是我們槓桿率的3倍。此外，我們目前正致力於抵消股權稀釋。顯然，EBITDA的成長速度將取決於我們考慮在2021年進一步配置資金。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Mark, you've done a tremendous amount on the innovation front in recent years. And I would like to hear more about optifilm as you highlighted in the prepared remarks. But more broadly, intended to ask, is there a way to quantify the benefit that you anticipate from new products either on a top-down basis across the portfolio or perhaps bottom-up thinking about what the top 2 or 3 contributors could be in coming years?

馬克，近年來，您在創新方面做出了巨大的貢獻。正如您在準備好的發言中所強調的那樣，我想聽聽更多關於 Optifilm 的情況。但更廣泛地說，我想問的是，有沒有一種方法可以量化您預期新產品帶來的效益？是自上而下地在整個產品組合中量化，還是自下而上地思考未來幾年哪兩三個貢獻最大？

So Kevin, we do -- we gave you a metric called new business revenue from innovation. So we -- there's lots of new business revenue, just within market share and things like that. But we isolate out what comes from integration platforms and we had a target of this year getting to $500 million. We were well on track at $400 million last year, even in the trade war, and we continue to have great engagement, even virtually with customers. We've told you about all kinds of wins we're having in this year across our product portfolio. So we feel good about it, but it's not going to be at the level that we aim for.

凱文，我們確實…我們給了你一個指標，叫做創新帶來的新業務收入。所以，我們有很多新業務收入，只是市佔率之類的。但我們把來自整合平台的收入單獨拿出來，今年的目標是達到5億美元。去年，即使在貿易戰期間，我們的收入也達到了4億美元，而且我們仍然保持著良好的互動，即使是線上也與客戶保持良好的互動。我們已經告訴過你，我們今年在產品組合方面取得了各種成功。所以我們對此感到滿意，但不會達到我們預期的水平。

So we'll always give that to you. And I would note that, that new business innovation will build, and I think we can get back to that level, that target next year in 2021. So I feel good about the growth that we can sort of put together there. And it really fits with where we think we're headed for delivering a very attractive 2021.

所以我們會一直把這個奉獻給你們。我想指出的是，新的業務創新將會不斷湧現，我認為我們明年，也就是2021年，就能回到那個水平，那個目標。所以我對我們能夠實現的成長感到很滿意。這與我們預期的2021年非常有吸引力的業績目標非常契合。

So Willie's told you, we've got fixed costs basically flat. We've told you that we have a $100 million tailwind in asset utilization next year relative to this year if volumes are just flat in '21 versus '20, right? Because we took all these aggressive inventory management actions this year to go beyond demand to generate cash, and we're quite happy we did that. And that inverts becomes $100 million tailwind on flat volumes.

威利告訴你，我們的固定成本基本上持平。我們也說過，如果2021年的銷售量與2020年的銷售量持平，那麼明年我們的資產利用率將比今年高出1億美元，對吧？因為我們今年採取了所有這些積極的庫存管理措施，以超越需求來創造現金，我們很高興我們做到了這一點。這反過來又會在銷量持平的情況下帶來1億美元的順風。

And then it's innovation from new business that we're just talking about here, the market recovery that you might have at some level, depending on how COVID and everything plays out. All create incremental growth above that. And because of the inventory actions we've taken this year, the innovations at the growth that we're getting there is above-average margins for the company. Because of the inventory management we've done, we don't have any fixed cost headwinds. The incremental margins for growth next year are probably going to be 60% -- 50% to 60%, so very attractive margins. So that growth flows the bottom line. And we put out together $0.60 just with flat volume on utilization and flat costs and then growth on top, it could get us back to '19 levels.

然後就是我們剛才談到的新業務創新，以及市場復甦（取決於新冠疫情和其他因素的進展），這些因素在某種程度上可能會帶來復甦。所有這些都會創造增量成長。由於我們今年採取的庫存管理措施，我們實現的成長創新為公司帶來了高於平均水平的利潤率。由於我們實施了庫存管理，我們沒有遇到任何固定成本的不利因素。明年增量成長的利潤率可能會達到 60%——50% 到 60%，這是一個非常有吸引力的利潤率。因此，這種成長將直接影響到最終的獲利。我們投入 0.60 美元，在產量、利用率和成本持平的情況下，再加上成長，就能讓我們回到 2019 年的水準。

Okay. That's helpful. And then secondly, Mark, I wanted to ask about interlayer films. You talked about the acoustic films and heads up displays. Do you feel as though you're gaining market share in that business? Or is it more a situation where volumes could be exceeding auto sales as a function of restocking or perhaps both of those things? How would you characterize the market dynamics in the interlayer films?

好的，這很有幫助。其次，馬克，我想問關於中間膜的問題。您提到了隔音膜和平視顯示器。您覺得你們在這個業務領域的市佔率正在成長嗎？或者，由於補貨，銷量可能會超過汽車銷量，或者兩者兼而有之？您如何描述中間膜的市場動態？

Yes, interlayer is a great business. It's more directly tied to OEM production, obviously. So that production goes up and down so will our volume. We still benefited and did better than the underlying market this year, Kevin, with acoustic and heads-up display, but not to the same extent as performance films because performance films is expanding its overall market that it serves and so it's doing well. The HUD and acoustic doing well. This next-gen set of products, I just mentioned, are going to give us additional tailwind as we go into next year.

是的，中間膜業務很棒。它顯然與原始設備製造商（OEM）生產更直接相關。因此，產量會上下波動，銷售量也會隨之波動。凱文，今年我們在聲學和平視顯示器（HUD）領域仍然受益，並且表現優於基礎市場，但不如高性能薄膜那麼好，因為高性能薄膜正在擴大其服務的整體市場，因此表現良好。 HUD和聲學薄膜也表現良好。我剛才提到的這套下一代產品將在我們進入明年時為我們帶來額外的助力。

So we feel that it will continue on a volume mix basis. It will do well. The mix is incredibly important to keep in mind about this -- the entire company, especially in AM. So when you're selling paint protection films or window films or acoustic or heads-up display, that's way above segment average margins in AM, including Tritan and the circular economy products we're selling, same thing. So all those growing isn't just volume, it's a mix upgrade.

因此，我們認為它在產量組合上會繼續保持強勁。它會表現良好。記住產品組合至關重要——對整個公司來說都是如此，尤其是在積層製造領域。所以，當你銷售漆面保護膜、窗膜、隔音膜或抬頭顯示器時，其利潤率遠高於積層製造領域的平均水平，包括我們銷售的Tritan和循環經濟產品，情況也是如此。所以，所有這些成長不僅僅是產量的成長，而是產品組合的升級。

Our next question will come from Mike Sison of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Nice quarter. Just curious, and I think I'm doing the math right, it looks like sales will be up sequentially, right? Fourth quarter versus third quarter? And I apologize I missed this, but why is EBIT -- your guidance would imply EBIT is down, right? So anything I'm missing? I would have thought maybe you'd have flow through up on an EBIT basis.

季度表現不錯。只是好奇，我想我的計算沒錯，銷售額看起來會比上季成長，對吧？第四季對比第三季？抱歉，我漏掉了這個問題，但為什麼息稅前利潤（EBIT）——你的指引暗示息稅前利潤會下降，對吧？所以我漏掉了什麼？我以為你可能會根據息稅前利潤（EBIT）計算出淨利。

So thanks for the question. So on the volume mix, we expect it to be approaching Q4 levels of prior year. As we think about raw materials continuing to be, I'll call it, increasing, we would expect to continue to potentially have some, I'll call it, slight spread compression as we think about our chemical intermediates and some of the AFP 1/3, potentially tires. So as we think about the balance of that, also, we'll have a little less of the cost actions benefit. So I'll remind you, in Q3, we had roughly $50 million. Q4, will have roughly $40 million as the activity continues to increase. So all in, that's a sequential view as well as some of the key inputs on a year-over-year. So as we think about it, EBIT being similar to prior year is where we come out as we look through that.

感謝您的提問。就產量組合而言，我們預計它將接近去年第四季的水平。考慮到原料價格持續上漲，我們預計化學中間體和部分AFP 1/3（可能是輪胎）的價差可能會持續略微收縮。因此，考慮到這些因素的平衡，我們的成本行動收益也會略有減少。我提醒您，第三季我們的成本行動收益約為5000萬美元。隨著業務活動的持續增加，第四季的收益將約為4,000萬美元。總而言之，這是一個環比成長趨勢，同時也包含了一些關鍵的同比數據。因此，我們認為息稅前利潤與去年同期持平。

Yes, there's always some normal -- I mean, while we don't have normal seasonality of the drops based on things I said earlier. We still expect demand to be a little bit less in products with some seasonality. So tremendous strength to get back to last year's levels and earnings. So I think that's a great accomplishment as we look at it, a little bit less than third quarter.

是的，總是有一些正常的——我的意思是，雖然根據我之前提到的情況，我們的銷售額下降並不像正常的季節性因素那樣。我們仍然預計，受季節性影響的產品需求將會略有下降。因此，要恢復到去年的水平和盈利，需要巨大的努力。所以，我認為，從我們的角度來看，這是一個偉大的成就，雖然比第三季略有下降。

Right. No, I agree. And then in terms of -- if demand levels stay sort of around this third quarter level or second half level. And then given some of the cost-saving efforts you have for '21, where do you think your run rate level of earnings are -- is tracking? And I know it may be too early to give a specific guidance, but are you above '19? Are you closer to '18? Just maybe just give me a sense of where earnings should maybe lay out if things stay at these levels.

對。不，我同意。然後，如果需求水準保持在第三季或下半年的水準附近。考慮到你們為2021年所做的一些成本節約措施，你們認為你們的獲利運作率水準會在哪裡？追蹤情況如何？我知道現在給出具體的指導可能還為時過早，但你們的獲利水準會高於2019年嗎？會更接近2018年嗎？如果情況保持在這個水平，請告訴我獲利應該如何分佈。

Yes. So I was trying to get at that -- around the growth question a moment ago, assume fixed costs flat, assume a tailwind of $0.60 a share in asset utilization of flat volumes. So then you build on that with volume growth, mix improvement, as I was just talking about, the power of mix is incredible in this. It's not just volume that was a headwind this year, it was mix as a big driver because the markets that were impacted by COVID were our highest value markets. So you're already seeing the value of them coming back in the third quarter. You'll see that more progress in the fourth quarter. But next year, you'd expect to get all the way back there on mix.

是的。所以我剛剛想解釋成長問題，假設固定成本持平，假設資產利用率在銷售量持平的情況下，每股盈餘為0.60美元。那麼，你就可以在此基礎上繼續成長銷量，改善產品組合，正如我剛才所說，產品組合的力量是驚人的。今年，不只是銷售量是逆風，產品組合也是一大驅動力，因為受新冠疫情影響的市場是我們價值最高的市場。所以，你已經在第三季看到了它們的價值回升。你會在第四季看到更多進展。但明年，你預計產品組合將完全回到原來的水平。

And then the asset leverage of that fixed cost with sort of that 50% to 60% incremental margins. I think when you put all that together, there's still some spread headwinds you're going to have with pricing catching up to raws because we assume raws will be increasing next year with an improving economy. So you have a little bit of that as a headwind and some competitive pressure in tires and acetyls, offsetting some of that growth and success. So put it all together, we think we can get back to around 2019 levels, could be a bit better, but there's a lot of moving parts on that. And we got to see how we get through this COVID crisis, which obviously is going to have some amount of impact. And there's the U.S. election, there's China trade tensions, et cetera. So there's a lot of things to factor in and refine that outlook, which we'll give you in January.

然後是固定成本的資產槓桿，以及50%到60%的增加利潤率。我認為，綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們預計隨著經濟好轉，明年原料藥價格將上漲，因此在價格追趕原料藥價格的過程中，仍會面臨一些價差阻力。因此，輪胎和乙醯基市場存在一些競爭壓力，抵消了部分成長和成功。綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們認為我們可以回到2019年的水平，甚至可能更好，但這其中有很多不確定因素。我們必須觀察如何度過這場新冠危機，這顯然會產生一定的影響。此外，還有美國大選、中美貿易緊張局勢等等。因此，有很多因素需要考慮並完善我們的前景，我們將在1月公佈。

Our next question will come from John Roberts from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

You have all these great ESG initiatives. How does the CigTow business fit into that mosaic? And do you have to carve that out at some point? Or can it coexist as you ramp up the other ESG initiatives?

你們有這麼多優秀的ESG舉措。 CigTow業務如何融入其中？你們是否需要在某個時候將其獨立出來？或者，它能否與你們推進其他ESG舉措並存？

Yes. So that's -- so obviously, we've considered carving to -- out of the portfolio a number of times, especially back in 2015. Unfortunately, it can't be carved out, John. It's so integrated into the Kingsport site and so interdependent with all the cellulosic growth we have in AFP and AM and shared assets and recycled loops, you just can't separate it, it would be a disaster. So you have to grow out of it. And that's what we're doing, right?

是的。所以，很明顯，我們曾多次考慮將其從投資組合中剝離出來，尤其是在2015年。很遺憾，約翰，我們無法剝離它。它與金斯波特工廠緊密相連，並且與我們在AFP、AM、共享資產和再生循環方面的所有纖維素增長相互依存，根本無法剝離，否則將是一場災難。所以，我們必須逐步擺脫它。而這正是我們正在做的，對嗎？

So our strategy is through -- ultimately, if you go long-term enough, replace all the tow with textiles and other applications with that growth. And obviously, that's going to take some time. But our strategy and the answer to that question when it comes up is we have to maintain the economic integrity of the company to invest in growth and support our success. So tow is part of that, but we're going to work as hard as we possibly can to grow in textiles, which also has attractive margins and grow that business as the tow business declines over time. So that's sort of the answer to the question, and it's also a way to leverage a lot of excess tow capacity that we have right now that has great incremental margins will grow textile against 0.

所以我們的策略是——最終，如果放眼長遠，隨著業務的成長，用紡織品和其他應用取代所有絲束業務。顯然，這需要一些時間。但我們的策略以及這個問題的答案是，我們必須保持公司的經濟完整性，以便投資成長並支持我們的成功。絲束是其中的一部分，但我們將竭盡全力在紡織品業務上取得成長，該業務的利潤率也很可觀，並且在絲束業務逐漸下滑的同時，我們也將擴大紡織品業務。這就是問題的答案，這也是一種利用我們目前擁有的大量過剩絲束產能的方法，這些產能具有巨大的增量利潤率，將使紡織品業務的增長速度超過零。

Okay. And then secondly, back to the performance films, the interlayer business is almost all OEM, can be paint protection in the OPAC films go OEM as well? And maybe just give us a little bit of parameters. If interlayer profitability or content is 1x per car, the opaque films go on the side windows and rear windows. So that's got to be much bigger than 1x. And then the paint protection goes on a much larger surface area. And so that's got to be even higher than the darkening films. Kind of give us what are the 1x and then for the interlayers and what are the opaque films and the paint protection films?

好的。其次，回到性能膜的問題。中間膜業務幾乎都是OEM，那麼OPAC膜中的漆面保護膜也能做OEM嗎？能否提供一些參數？如果中間膜的獲利能力或含量是每輛車1x，那麼不透明膜會貼在側窗和後窗上。所以這肯定比1x大得多。然後漆面保護膜的表面積就大得多。所以這肯定比暗化膜更高。請告訴我們1x是多少，然後是中間膜，不透明膜和漆面保護膜又是什麼？

Yes. So John, I don't have a quick easy answer to that question. What I can tell you, I just know what sort of refine a little bit about what the paint protection film is. So paint protection film comes in 2 versions. One is the full wrap of the car, but a lot of people just wrap the vulnerable -- put the film on just the vulnerable parts of the car, the front, the side, the door handles, et cetera. So it comes in 2 different versions on how much you sell per car when you do PPF.

是的。約翰，這個問題我沒辦法快速簡單回答。我能告訴你的是，我對漆面保護膜的工作原理略知一二。漆面保護膜有兩種類型。一種是全車覆蓋，但很多人只在車的易損部位貼膜，像是車頭、側面、門把手等等。所以，在做車漆保護膜（PPF）時，每輛車的銷售量會有兩種不同的狀況。

And it is certainly additive when you think about our presence on a car because the interlayers is doing one thing in Acoustics and HUD, the films on the windows are, as you've noted. So it's not just tinting. It's actually solar rejection is the big value proposition. So we sell a lot more in hot locations than cool locations because the films are much more advanced today than they were 20 years ago, and the big value proposition isn't just a tinting. It actually rejects a tremendous amount of solar heat that actually gives you better fuel efficiency since you use less air conditioning. And so that's additive.

想想我們在汽車上的應用，它當然具有附加價值，因為中間膜在聲學和HUD方面發揮作用，正如您所說，車窗上的薄膜也是如此。所以，它不僅僅是著色。實際上，阻隔太陽光才是最大的價值主張。因此，我們在炎熱地區的銷售量遠高於涼爽地區，因為如今的薄膜比20年前先進得多，而且最大的價值主張不僅僅是著色。它實際上可以阻隔大量的太陽熱量，從而提高燃油效率，因為您使用空調的次數減少了。所以，這就是附加價值。

And then you've got the PPF. But we don't break it down on a sort of ratio basis like that. It's something we probably should do, and we'll take a look at that. but what we do know is we're getting a lot of more presence on each car sold. And the dealers, as you mentioned, are really getting interested in it, right? It used to be very much an aftermarket business in PF. And a lot of our growth is now in collaboration with these programs we're doing with the auto dealers where they sell it as upsell in the car. Sometimes it's preinstalled on luxury cars. So you don't have a choice about it, when you're buying it. A lot of it is after sort of an upsell at the point of sale. So a lot of different ways to grow.

然後是PPF。但我們不會像那樣按比例分解。這或許是我們該做的，我們會研究一下。但我們確實知道，我們在每輛售出的汽車上都獲得了更高的曝光。正如你所提到的，經銷商們真的對它很感興趣，對吧？ PF過去主要是售後市場業務。現在我們的成長很大一部分來自於我們與汽車經銷商合作的項目，他們把PF作為車內的追加銷售產品出售。有時它會預先安裝在豪華車上。所以你在買車的時候別無選擇。很多時候，它都是在銷售點進行追加銷售。所以有很多不同的成長方式。

Our next question comes from Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

下一個問題來自 Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. 的 Matthew Blair。

I want to circle back to tire additives. The Michelin data showed pretty rapid improvement in replacement tire demand through Q3. I think they have both North America and China, up 9% year-over-year in September. So I just wanted to see, does that match with what you have? I know your tire market is much more commercial, but any comments there?

我想回到輪胎添加劑的話題。米其林的數據顯示，截至第三季度，替換輪胎的需求成長相當迅速。我認為北美和中國9月的輪胎需求年增了9%。我想看看，這跟你們的情況相符嗎？我知道你們的輪胎市場比較商業化，對此有什麼看法嗎？

No, we've seen the same rapid recovery demand in tires in the third quarter has been quite good and consistent with what you're talking about.

不，我們看到第三季輪胎需求同樣快速復甦，情況相當不錯，與您所說的一致。

Sounds good. And then all these forest fires have caused a pretty big wood shortage, lumber shortage. Is that having any impact on, I guess, either fibers or any other parts of your business?

聽起來不錯。而且這些森林火災造成了嚴重的木材短缺。這對纖維或貴公司其他業務有影響嗎？

No. Where those fires are occurring are not where we would be getting our wood. We only get wood pulp from sustainably grown forest. They're growing purposely to be regenerated and taken care of it in very different locations and where these fires are occurring in East Coast, Brazil, different locations than the West Coast.

不。發生火災的地方不是我們獲取木材的地方。我們只從永續種植的森林中獲取木漿。這些森林是特意種植的，可以在非常不同的地方再生和處理，而且這些火災發生在巴西東海岸，與西海岸的地點不同。

If we could make the next question the last one, please?

我們能把下一個問題當作最後一個問題嗎？

Our last question today will come from Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets.

今天的最後一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

Just 2 quick ones. So first off, could you just remind us sequentially what was the benefit from lower idle facility charges, I guess, Q2 to Q3? And then secondly, if you could just address maybe the benefits to Eastman from a potential infrastructure bill, if there's maybe 1% of your portfolio that's weighted there. And how potentially Eastman would be positively impacted by that?

簡單問兩個問題。首先，您能否依序回顧一下，從第二季到第三季度，閒置設施費用降低帶來了哪些好處？其次，如果您的投資組合中大約有1%的權重是基礎建設，您能否談談潛在的基礎建設法案會為伊士曼帶來哪些好處？這會為伊士曼帶來哪些潛在的正面影響？

Sure. So if I answer the question, so I'll answer it 2 ways: one, which is you saw our decremental margins go down roughly 60% from Q1 to Q2 and our incrementals be about 60%. I would say over 90% of our period of costs associated with our facilities basically went away in the quarter on a sequential basis as our plants came back and became fully operational throughout the quarter.

當然。如果我回答這個問題，我會從兩個方面來回答：第一，您看到我們的遞減利潤率從第一季到第二季下降了約60%，而遞增利潤率約為60%。我想說，隨著我們工廠的恢復運營，我們與設施相關的期間成本在本季基本環比下降了90%以上。

And then on the infrastructure question, it will benefit us. We're not really focused on large infrastructure projects and the kind of materials we make. We tend to go more into consumer durables, cars, building construction, but more commercial than bridges. So it depends on the nature of what the infrastructure is. What's great about that is it just creates broader economic growth, which we're highly levered to. So while we may not be participating directly in some of the infrastructure projects, we are certainly tied to macroeconomic demand. People will have more pickup trucks going to work in construction, which is good for us, et cetera. So we'll certainly benefit like everyone does from the improving economy driven by.

關於基礎設施問題，這將使我們受益。我們實際上並不專注於大型基礎設施項目和我們生產的材料種類。我們更傾向於耐用消費品、汽車和建築施工，但商業性質比橋樑更重。所以這取決於基礎設施的性質。基礎設施的好處在於它能創造更廣泛的經濟成長，而我們高度依賴這些成長。因此，雖然我們可能沒有直接參與某些基礎設施項目，但我們肯定與宏觀經濟需求息息相關。人們會用更多的皮卡車去施工現場，這對我們有利，等等。因此，我們肯定會像所有人一樣，從基礎設施推動的經濟改善中受益。

Thanks, again, everyone, for joining us this morning. We appreciate you dialing in and look forward to talking with you again soon. Have a great day.

再次感謝大家今天早上的參與。感謝您撥通電話，期待很快能再次與您交流。祝您擁有美好的一天。

This will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。