伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Eastman Chemical Second Quarter 2020 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman's website, which is www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化學2020年第二季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。這場電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將電話轉給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations. In case you missed it yesterday after market close, in addition to our [second] (corrected by the company after the call) quarter 2020 financial results press release and SEC 8-K filing, we posted slides and related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website, which is www.eastman.com. We've continued this practice from the first quarter, and I hope it continues to be helpful to you.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、高級副總裁兼首席財務官威利·麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain) 和投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。如果您在昨天收盤後錯過了，除了我們的[第二]季度（電話會議後公司已更正）2020 年財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件外，我們還在我們網站的投資者部分（www.eastman.com）發布了幻燈片和相關的準備好的評論。我們從第一季開始就延續了這種做法，希望它能繼續對大家有幫助。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in the company's second quarter 2020 financial results news release, during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-Q filed for first quarter 2020 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for second quarter 2020. Second, earnings referenced in this presentation excludes certain noncore and unusual items and use an adjusted effective tax rate using the forecasted tax rate for the full year. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the second quarter financial results news release, which can be found on our website in the Investors section.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在公司 2020 年第二季度財務業績新聞稿、本次電話會議、前面的幻燈片和準備好的評論以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的 2020 年第一季 10-Q 表和即將提交的 2020 年第二季度 10-Q 表。其次，本報告中提到的收益不包括某些非核心和非常規項目，並使用根據全年預測稅率調整後的有效稅率。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標及其他相關披露的對賬，包括排除和調整項目的描述，可在第二季度財務業績新聞稿中找到，該新聞稿可在我們網站的“投資者”部分找到。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Greg. Before we turn it over to questions, I want to take a few minutes to make some comments. The first half of 2020 has been unprecedented, given the serious threat to health and safety, the reminders of racism and the need for positive change, the incredible amount of economic volatility and the lingering uncertainty that confronts us all. I'm grateful to the healthcare community, our first responders, along with government local leaders who are helping at this difficult time.

謝謝，格雷格。在我們開始提問之前，我想花幾分鐘時間發表一些評論。2020 年上半年是前所未有的，健康和安全面臨嚴重威脅，種族主義揮之不去，積極變革的必要性不斷增加，經濟波動劇烈，我們所有人都面臨著揮之不去的不確定性。我感謝醫療保健界、我們的急救人員以及政府當地領導人在這個困難時期提供協助。

As importantly, I want to thank the women and men of Eastman and their families, who continue to come together in tremendous ways. They've gone above and beyond, working long hours, many times in challenging conditions. Most important, they have been diligent to keep people safe, continue to support our customers, and keep our businesses going.

同樣重要的是，我要感謝伊士曼的員工和他們的家人，他們繼續以巨大的方式團結在一起。他們付出了極大的努力，長時間工作，而且很多時候是在極其艱苦的條件下。最重要的是，他們一直努力確保人們的安全，繼續支持我們的客戶，並確保我們的業務正常運作。

While COVID-19 has caused us to shift some priorities this year, we're renewing our commitment to drive a more inclusive and diverse workforce, which is a core value of Eastman and critical to our growth strategy and ability to innovate. During the quarter, we took steps to strengthen our efforts to build more inclusive teams by increasing our efforts to mitigate the impact of unconscious bias and expanding resources to equip employees for their role in driving a more inclusive culture. We're making progress and have much more work to do to ensure every team can show up and contribute fully at work and in their communities.

雖然新冠疫情導致我們今年改變了一些工作重點，但我們仍重申致力於打造更具包容性和多元化的員工隊伍，這是伊士曼的核心價值，對我們的成長策略和創新能力至關重要。在本季度，我們採取措施加強建立更具包容性的團隊，加強減輕無意識偏見的影響，擴大資源，使員工能夠在推動更具包容性的文化方面發揮作用。我們正在取得進展，但仍有許多工作要做，以確保每個團隊都能在工作和社區中充分發揮作用並做出貢獻。

As we look at our first half performance, we believe that we have performed relatively well with our focus on free cash flow. Sales revenue for the quarter and for the first half of the year, when compared to peer results, demonstrated resilience, which is a function of our innovation-driven growth model as well as the diversity of our end markets and a testament to the great work of Eastman employees as they navigate this challenging and unprecedented environment. We also made great progress in our $150 million of cost reductions in the quarter and are on track to hit our full year target.

回顧我們上半年的業績，我們認為，由於我們專注於自由現金流，所以業績表現相對較好。與同業相比，本季和上半年的銷售收入展現了韌性，這得益於我們的創新驅動型成長模式以及終端市場的多樣性，也證明了伊士曼員工在應對這一充滿挑戰和前所未有的環境時所做的出色工作。本季度，我們也在削減 1.5 億美元的成本方面取得了巨大進展，並有望實現全年目標。

With our focus on free cash flow, we also manage our inventory aggressively to respond to the fall in demand and go beyond that to generate even more cash, delivering our best free cash flow for the first half.

我們專注於自由現金流，同時積極管理庫存，以應對需求下降，並進一步產生更多現金，從而實現上半年最佳的自由現金流。

Turning now to our expectations for 2020. In the second quarter, the cost from the lower capacity utilization was $120 million sequentially. We expect this will decline by about half in the third quarter and be partially offset by increasing maintenance spending and a moderation of the impact from cost reduction actions as we ramp back up. Advanced Materials will have the biggest impact from the improvement and capacity utilization at between $30 million and $35 million for the quarter. AFP will see some benefit, and CI will face a net headwind as higher maintenance shutdowns will be more than the utilization tailwind.

現在談談我們對 2020 年的期望。第二季度，因產能利用率下降而產生的成本較上季增加 1.2 億美元。我們預計第三季這一數字將下降約一半，並將因維護支出增加和成本削減措施的影響有所緩和而部分抵消。先進材料部門將因產能改善和利用率提高而受到最大影響，本季的營收將達到 3,000 萬至 3,500 萬美元。AFP 將獲得一些好處，而 CI 將面臨淨逆風，因為更高的維護停工將超過利用率的順風。

The third quarter is off to a strong start as we benefit from volume recovery and start to realize the benefits of inventory management actions we took in the second quarter. As a result, we expect a substantial sequential increase in earnings. Most importantly, we are maintaining our focus on cash generation, which is our priority for the year.

第三季開局強勁，我們受惠於銷售復甦，並開始實現第二季採取的庫存管理措施帶來的好處。因此，我們預期收益將連續大幅成長。最重要的是，我們將繼續專注於現金創造，這是我們今年的首要任務。

Building on a very strong start in the first half of the year, we are on track to generate over $1 billion of free cash flow for the year. Given the continued uncertainty related to COVID-19, we are not providing 2020 guidance.

基於上半年強勁的開局，我們預計今年將創造超過 10 億美元的自由現金流。鑑於與 COVID-19 相關的不確定性持續存在，我們不提供 2020 年的指導。

While the actions we're taking today are making a significant difference, we remain focused on our innovation strategy and are continuing to invest in our growth and our commercial capabilities. At the same time, we will be driving an operational transformation program to structurally remove costs by greater than $200 million by the end of 2022, with a significant impact in '21. Altogether, with the actions we've taken in 2020, we are well positioned to benefit from the return of economic growth as we look at the future in '21 and beyond, as we lead from a position of strength with our innovation-driven growth model. It's the heart of how we win.

雖然我們今天採取的行動正在產生重大影響，但我們仍然專注於我們的創新策略，並繼續投資於我們的成長和商業能力。同時，我們將推動營運轉型計劃，到 2022 年底從結構上削減超過 2 億美元的成本，並在 2021 年產生重大影響。總而言之，憑藉我們在 2020 年採取的行動，展望 21 年及以後，我們完全有能力從經濟成長的回歸中受益，因為我們將憑藉創新驅動的成長模式佔據優勢地位。這是我們獲勝的核心。

Our strengths have never been clearer during this pandemic: our portfolio transformation to specialty businesses; the outstanding innovation capability we've built, along with our decisive operational execution capability, generating excellent free cash flow as a top financial priority; our balance sheet is strong; and we have significant sources of liquidity.

在這次疫情期間，我們的優勢從未如此清晰：我們的投資組合向專業業務轉型；我們建立的卓越創新能力，以及我們果斷的營運執行能力，將產生出色的自由現金流作為首要財務重點；我們的資產負債表強勁；我們擁有重要的流動資金來源。

With that, I'll turn it back to Greg.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給格雷格。

Okay. Thanks, Mark. And Brian, we're now ready for questions.

好的。謝謝，馬克。布萊恩，我們現在可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) We now take our first question from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）現在我們來回答摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews 提出的第一個問題。

This is Angel Castillo on for Vincent. So just had a quick question regarding your carbon renewal technology. It sounds like you're getting good customer receptiveness. So I was wondering if you could give us a little bit more color in regards to the economics, whether what premiums you're getting versus nonrecycled product.

這是 Vincent 的 Angel Castillo。所以我只是想問一個關於你們的碳更新技術的簡單問題。聽起來您獲得了良好的客戶接受度。所以我想知道您是否可以提供一些有關經濟方面的詳細信息，例如與非回收產品相比，您獲得的溢價是多少。

And then as we think about the product moving toward that $200 million, $300 million type number that you mentioned, could you give us a sense of what checkpoints you're thinking about and what the time line of that might be and maybe when we move from a pilot plant to a full-scale rollout?

然後，當我們考慮將產品推向您提到的 2 億美元、3 億美元時，您能否告訴我們您正在考慮哪些檢查點，以及可能的時間表，以及當我們從試驗工廠轉向全面推廣時？

Sure. Great set of questions, and one of the most exciting growth platforms we have at Eastman that we've been working on for the last, I guess, 18 months now.

當然。這些問題很棒，也是我們伊士曼最令人興奮的成長平台之一，我想，我們已經在這個平台上工作了 18 個月了。

As all of you know, attention to carbon footprint, circular economy, the plastic waste problem we have in landfills, the ocean is a critical issue that we, as an industry, need to solve. And it's also just a huge waste of carbon, letting that all go into the environment as opposed to recycling it. And what's exciting about Eastman is we are leading, I think, with commercial scale investments to close that loop and create a circular economy that is both economic and great for the environment.

眾所周知，關注碳足跡、循環經濟、垃圾掩埋場的塑膠垃圾問題以及海洋是我們作為一個行業需要解決的關鍵問題。而且這也是一種巨大的碳浪費，將所有碳排放到環境中而不是回收。伊士曼令人興奮的是，我認為，我們正處於領先地位，透過商業規模的投資來形成這個循環，創造一個既經濟又有利於環境的循環經濟。

So one of those 2 technologies, as you noted, is the carbon renewal technology, where we're repurposing our gasifier to reforming waste plastic. And so we take it in on the front end, instead of the coal, and we can completely clean up that waste plastic to its molecular elements and rebuild acetyls and cellulosic products. So we went commercial on that quite some time ago and are scaling up for their customers, both in textiles, with our new Naia products that have already 50% bio content from sustainably grown forest. Now the other half will be based on recycled plastics. So it's -- and these products are biodegradable as microfibers in the ocean. So it's the hat trick of all offers in textiles, when you're half bio, half recycled content, and you don't have to worry about the micro fibers. So we get -- we have tremendous interest in a number of customers who are adopting this. One of the biggest wins we've had recently was with H&M who have put that in their conscious collection, and we're seeing a number of other companies adopt.

正如您所說，這兩項技術中的一項是碳更新技術，我們將氣化爐重新用於重整廢塑膠。因此，我們在前端採用它，而不是煤炭，我們可以將廢塑膠完全清理成其分子元素，並重建乙醯基和纖維素產品。因此，我們很早就開始商業化該產品，並正在擴大其在紡織品領域的客戶規模，我們的新 Naia 產品中 50% 的生物成分已來自可持續種植的森林。現在另一半將基於再生塑膠。所以——這些產品可以在海洋中生物降解為微纖維。因此，當您使用一半生物材料、一半再生材料時，這是紡織品領域所有產品的帽子戲法，您不必擔心微纖維。因此，我們對採用此方法的許多客戶非常感興趣。我們最近取得的最大成功之一是與 H&M 的合作，他們已將此納入其環保系列，而且我們看到許多其他公司也在採用這種做法。

Now obviously, in the COVID environment where the textile market is severely down, it's hard to see a lot of that benefit. But we can still see it in women's wear, which is our target growth market where we're only down about 15% when the underlying market is down 30%. So we're seeing good substitution growth even in a very challenged market, where people are still adopting sustainable solutions at a premium compared to other alternatives in the marketplace. So we're getting both a price premium as well as accelerated growth. And we would expect as the textile market recovers, that would accelerate.

顯然，現在紡織市場嚴重低迷，在新冠疫情環境下，很難看到太多好處。但我們仍然可以在女裝市場看到這種情況，女裝是我們的目標成長市場，當基礎市場下跌 30% 時，我們的銷售額僅下降了 15% 左右。因此，即使在充滿挑戰的市場中，我們也看到了良好的替代品成長，與市場上的其他替代品相比，人們仍然以更高的價格採用可持續的解決方案。因此，我們既獲得了價格溢價，又獲得了加速成長。我們預計，隨著紡織市場的復甦，這一成長將會加速。

Same is true with a variety of cellulosic plastic offerings we have on the specialty plastic side. Ophthalmics, we've had a number of customers now adopt to recycle their cellulosic waste for sunglasses, eyeglasses. We're the dominant player in that marketplace with a very strong leadership position, and we're going to be taking back their product actually and circulating it back into a true circular solution for sunglasses and eyeglasses. So we've had a number of wins there. And that's only 1 of 2 technologies.

我們在特種塑膠方面提供的各種纖維素塑膠產品也是如此。眼科方面，我們現在已經有許多客戶採用回收纖維素廢料來製造太陽眼鏡和眼鏡。我們是市場的主導者，擁有非常強大的領導地位，我們將回收他們的產品，並將其循環利用，為太陽眼鏡和眼鏡提供真正的循環解決方案。因此我們在那裡取得了許多勝利。這只是兩種技術中的一種。

The other one is our polyester technology, where we can recycle polyester and then zip it back into its intermediates and then return that back to market. And what's great about both of these technologies is that they're truly circular where we can close the loop into the same level of application or even a better application. We're not down cycling products, which is what happens to a lot of waste.

另一個是我們的聚酯技術，我們可以回收聚酯，然後將其壓縮成中間體，然後將其返回市場。這兩種技術的優點在於，它們真正具有循環性，我們可以將循環閉合到相同等級的應用甚至更好的應用中。我們不會對產品進行降級回收，而許多廢棄物都是這樣做的。

And what's great about molecular recycling is the product is identical, so there's no trade-off in performance. The performance is identical to the fossil-fuel-based product. The quality is identical. There are no safety concerns because we're breaking it down to the molecular and clean it all up before we make the new polymer. And it's infinite like aluminum, so we can continue to recycle the product forever. There is no limitations. Mechanical recycling starts to break down over time. So there's only so many times you can do that. So it truly is a solution, and we believe that, as we've said, there's $200 million to $300 million at least of incremental revenue associated with this in both share gains and price premiums that we can get from the marketplace. Provides a very attractive return on investment.

分子回收的優點在於產品是相同的，因此不會影響性能。其性能與基於化石燃料的產品相同。品質相同。不存在安全問題，因為我們在製造新聚合物之前將其分解為分子並將其全部清理乾淨。而且它像鋁一樣是無限的，所以我們可以永遠繼續回收該產品。沒有限制。隨著時間的推移，機械回收開始失效。所以你能做的次數是有限的。所以這確實是一個解決方案，而且我們相信，正如我們所說的那樣，我們可以從市場上獲得至少 2 億到 3 億美元的增量收入，包括份額收益和價格溢價。提供非常有吸引力的投資回報。

That's very helpful. And then just in terms of the portfolio optimization. So you're doing some savings, cost savings initiatives. I think on your last earnings call, you had mentioned that perhaps in this environment it's a little bit hard to look at monetizing some of the maybe 1/3 of AFP that's struggling a little bit more. I was wondering if you could give us an update on how you're viewing this strategically and if there's opportunities to do some of that as well on top of the cost reductions.

這非常有幫助。然後僅就投資組合優化而言。所以你正在採取一些節省、節省成本的措施。我想在您上次的收益電話會議上，您曾提到，在這種環境下，將 AFP 大約 1/3 的陷入困境的公司貨幣化可能有點困難。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您從戰略上如何看待這個問題，以及除了降低成本之外是否還有機會採取一些類似的措施。

So yes. This is Willie speaking. So on the 1/3 of AFP first. So let me just reiterate that we're taking action now, actions to improve the business, including progress on our innovation as well as the restructuring of our footprint. You'll see that we announced the closure of an asset in Asia. And we continue to work through other actions and choices that we have to improve the near-term business performance.

是的。我是威利。因此先討論 AFP 的 1/3。因此，我只想重申一下，我們現在正在採取行動，採取行動改善業務，包括我們的創新進展以及我們的足跡重組。您會看到我們宣布關閉亞洲的一項資產。我們將繼續採取其他行動和選擇來改善近期的業務績效。

We're pursuing all options, which includes partnerships to improve the overall business performance and reduce our exposure. In addition to that, we would be looking at, call it, also divestitures over time. So we're looking at all fronts, and we're taking actions now to improve that performance.

我們正在尋求所有選擇，包括建立合作夥伴關係，以提高整體業務績效並降低我們的風險。除此之外，我們也會考慮隨著時間的推移進行資產剝離。因此，我們正在從各個方面考慮，並正在採取行動來提高績效。

As you can imagine, in this environment, it is a more difficult environment. But I would say that we've gotten through, I'll call it, the first phase of COVID. There has been renewed engagement and interest on multiple fronts, and we're pleased with those engagements.

你可以想像，在這種環境下，這是一個更困難的環境。但我想說，我們已經度過了，我稱之為 COVID 的第一階段。在多個方面都出現了新的參與和興趣，我們對這些參與感到高興。

On the $150 million of cost savings, to pivot there, what I would highlight, again, is we're on track to achieve that in Q2. We were a little ahead and on you would expect Q4 to be the lowest quarter and Q3 to be about on average. But again, on track to achieve that. And as we highlighted, we're looking to also structurally make structural changes of which we think roughly 1/3 will be structural from that. And our objective right now is to ensure that as the discretionary spend comes back in 2021, that we have structural actions that at least offset that as we move forward.

關於節省 1.5 億美元的成本，我想再次強調的是，我們預計在第二季實現這一目標。我們稍微領先了一點，您可以預期第四季度將是最低的季度，而第三季度將是平均水平。但再次強調，我們正朝著實現這目標的方向前進。正如我們所強調的，我們也希望從結構上做出結構性改變，我們認為其中大約 1/3 將是結構性的。我們現在的目標是確保隨著 2021 年可自由支配支出的回升，我們能夠採取結構性行動，至少在未來抵消這項影響。

Moving on to our next question from Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank.

我們接下來回答來自豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson 提出的下一個問題。

I noticed that your sales by customer location was down about 20% in the U.S., 20% in Europe but only around 9% in Asia. So could you split that between China and the rest of Asia? Remind us what your China exposure is. And are you working on any risk mitigants with respect to potentially a worsening U.S.-China trade?

我注意到，以客戶所在地劃分，你們的銷售額在美國下降了約 20%，在歐洲下降了 20%，但在亞洲僅下降了 9% 左右。那麼你能將其劃分為中國和亞洲其他國家嗎？提醒我們您在中國的曝光度是多少。您是否正在針對可能惡化的中美貿易局勢採取任何風險緩解措施？

Yes. Just to give a little bit of color around our Asia Pacific exposure. What we've previously said is roughly half of that exposure is in China, half of it's outside of China. As you think about also the way COVID impacted around the world, the impact of COVID was much more impactful in Q1 in Asia. As the economy returned, you saw that pick up. And basically, I think what you're seeing in the revenue is how it impacted Europe and North America, more so in Q2.

是的。只是想稍微介紹一下我們在亞太地區的業務。我們之前說過，大約一半的曝光發生在中國，另一半發生在中國境外。當您考慮 COVID 對全球的影響方式時，您會發現 COVID 在第一季對亞洲的影響更為嚴重。隨著經濟復甦，你會看到這種回升。基本上，我認為您在收入中看到的是它對歐洲和北美的影響，尤其是在第二季。

Yes. And as you think about the trade war question, sometimes we forget we're just in Phase 2. We started with a trade war in '19 and a pandemic, just to make it more interesting, this year on top of it. And we're already living with a certain amount of trade war that didn't exactly get completely abated. It got stabilized, I would say, in the beginning of this year, but it didn't go away. So that's still there. And I think we've done a good job of managing our way through it last year, and we certainly were seeing strong improvement in our results once it's stabilized in the January and February part of this year.

是的。當你思考貿易戰問題時，有時我們會忘記我們正處於第二階段。我們從 2019 年的貿易戰開始，然後又發生了一場疫情，更有趣的是，今年又發生了疫情。我們已經陷入了一定程度的貿易戰，而且這種局勢並未完全緩和。我想說，它在今年年初已經穩定下來，但並沒有消失。所以它仍然存在。我認為去年我們在管理方面做得很好，一旦今年 1 月和 2 月情況穩定下來，我們的業績肯定會有顯著改善。

But we have a diversity of end markets. We've shown we can be stable with our end markets as well as our regions. There's a lot of upside in North America and Europe in a pandemic recovery in front of us. That would certainly mitigate some risk to China as we sort of move forward. So I think we've got a good diverse position on not just geographies but in markets. And I've already demonstrated we can manage our way through a trade war.

但我們的終端市場是多樣化的。我們已經證明，我們可以在終端市場和地區保持穩定。北美和歐洲在疫情後復甦方面還有很大的上升空間。隨著我們不斷前進，這肯定會減輕中國面臨的一些風險。所以我認為我們不僅在地域上而且在市場上都佔據著良好的多元化地位。我已經證明我們能夠設法度過貿易戰。

We'll take our next question from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners.

我們將回答 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy 提出的下一個問題。

Can you speak to the inventory reductions in the second quarter as well as where you ended the quarter and what that might mean for your operating rates moving forward?

您能否談談第二季度的庫存減少情況以及本季結束時的情況，以及這對您未來的營運率意味著什麼？

Thanks, Kevin. This is Willie. We've made very strong progress on working capital and specifically, inventory in the quarter. I think sequentially, you saw inventory down roughly 15%. And again, applaud all of our business teams and operations and supply chain for executing on that very effectively. We would expect only, I'll call it, very modest additional inventory reductions throughout the year. So you can expect, I'll call it, the utilization rates to pick up quite substantially here in Q3 as we bring our auto plants back on board and the -- definitely in the transportation end markets. And I'd also reference that as you look at that on a year-over-year basis, we were building inventory. So it's in that 20% to 25% level year-over-year of inventory reductions.

謝謝，凱文。這是威利。本季我們在營運資金，特別是庫存方面取得了非常大的進展。我認為，庫存連續下降了約 15%。再次讚揚我們所有的業務團隊、營運和供應鏈非常有效地執行了這一目標。我們預計全年庫存只會有非常小幅的減少。因此，隨著我們恢復汽車工廠的生產，以及運輸終端市場的恢復，第三季的利用率將大幅上升。我還要提到，從同比來看，我們正在建立庫存。因此庫存年減量在 20% 至 25% 之間。

So great progress. Still more to do as we think about our receivables and payables as those, I'll call it, get back to more normal levels in the back half of the year. But effectively improving overall.

進步真大。當我們考慮應收帳款和應付帳款時，我們還有很多工作要做，我稱之為在下半年恢復到更正常水平。但整體有效改善。

Yes. The other thing I'd note is, as you think about utilization, the upside of utilization headwinds this year is in 2021. So we've generated a lot of cash this year. We're really proud of how much progress we made, and incredible actions by our teams on how well they did it. And it wasn't just falling demand, right? We went way beyond that and pulling inventory down to generate cash, which created a good portion of that headwind. So as we said, $140 million year-over-year headwind in utilization in the second quarter. Half of that was doing that inventory management beyond just following demand. So if you look at next year, if you just assume volumes next year are equal to this year, that half of that $140 million is an earnings tailwind next year relative to this year. So not only are we holding costs flat with our structural actions into next year on the fixed cost, this utilization set of actions we took in the second quarter and, to some degree, continuing in the third quarter, will create a pretty substantial earnings tailwind for next year as long as volumes are equal to this year. And then once volumes get better than that, obviously, you get even more tailwind because the incremental margins become quite significant for all the volume and mix growth beyond that.

是的。我要注意的另一件事是，當你考慮利用率時，今年利用率逆風的優勢是在 2021 年。因此我們今年產生了很多現金。我們為自己所取得的巨大進步以及團隊所採取的出色行動感到非常自豪。這不僅僅是需求下降，對嗎？我們採取的措施遠遠超出了這一點，透過降低庫存來產生現金，這造成了很大一部分不利因素。正如我們所說，第二季的利用率年減了 1.4 億美元。其中一半是進行庫存管理，而不僅僅是滿足需求。因此，如果你展望明年，如果你假設明年的銷量與今年相同，那麼相對於今年而言，這 1.4 億美元中的一半將是明年的盈利順風。因此，我們不僅透過在明年對固定成本採取結構性措施來保持成本平穩，而且我們在第二季度採取的這一系列利用行動，以及在一定程度上在第三季度繼續採取的行動，只要產量與今年持平，就會為明年創造相當可觀的盈利順風。然後，一旦銷量變得更好，顯然你會獲得更多的順風，因為對於所有銷量和組合成長而言，增量利潤率變得相當可觀。

So I think the utilization really sets us. It was great for cash this year as our priority. We've been very clear that's our priority as opposed to worrying about how the earnings look from an accounting point of view, especially with the period charges in the second quarter, but really sets us up for recovery next year.

所以我認為利用率確實對我們有利。今年我們優先考慮的是現金。我們已經非常清楚，這是我們的首要任務，而不是擔心從會計角度看收益如何，特別是第二季度的期間費用，但這確實為我們明年的復甦做好了準備。

I see. And then secondly, I wanted to ask you to elaborate on restructuring. It looks like you foresee $200 million or more savings to the end of '22, fairly large number there. Where will that be coming from in terms of your businesses and regions? Perhaps you could talk about how much is headcount versus asset rationalization and other sources of savings.

我懂了。其次，我想請您詳細說明重整。看起來您預計到 22 年底將節省 2 億美元或更多，這是一個相當大的數字。就您的業務和地區而言，這些收入來自哪裡？也許您可以談論員工人數與資產合理化以及其他節省來源的比例是多少。

Yes, Kevin, let me start out here. As you think about the actions that we're taking, first and foremost, we look to optimize our asset footprint, specifically in the 1/3 as well as the Singapore announcement that we've previously announced. So you can see that number being at least $50 million or greater. Additionally, as we had highlighted earlier this year, we were talking about continuing to improve our site utilization. So as you think about leveraging our integrated facilities, we've highlighted with air products and other assets along the Gulf Coast, the benefits that we'll achieve in earnings there. And then additionally, we're looking at how do we use digital solutions as well as transform how we do maintenance on our sites and optimize our networks around the globe in a post-trade war, post-COVID environment. And those will be additional monies on top of that.

是的，凱文，讓我從這裡開始。當您考慮我們正在採取的行動時，首先，我們希望優化我們的資產足跡，特別是在我們之前宣布的 1/3 以及新加坡公告中。所以你可以看到這個數字至少是 5000 萬美元甚至更多。此外，正如我們今年早些時候強調的那樣，我們正在討論繼續提高我們的站點利用率。因此，當您考慮利用我們的綜合設施時，我們強調了墨西哥灣沿岸的航空產品和其他資產，以及我們將在那裡獲得的收益。此外，我們也正在研究如何在後貿易戰、後疫情環境下使用數位解決方案、轉變站點維護方式以及優化全球網路。這些將是額外的資金。

Yes. There's quite a bit of value around network optimization. And we've done a lot of acquisitions over the years, as you guys know, building up our specialty portfolio. So as you look at those plants, warehouses, networks of how we do everything, there's opportunities to optimize all of that. And there's headcount reduction as well. So as we optimize our business operating model and our investments about making us more effective and nimble, agile in our commercial operations, all the way through how we improve our effectiveness of operations, especially a lot of lessons learned here in the last 4 months, we see a real opportunity to sort of streamline the organization and take costs out there.

是的。網路優化具有相當大的價值。正如你們所知，這些年來我們進行了大量收購，建立了我們的專業產品組合。因此，當你觀察那些工廠、倉庫、網路以及我們如何做所有事情時，你就有機會優化所有這些。並且也削減了員工人數。因此，當我們優化業務營運模式和投資，使我們的商業營運更加高效、靈活、敏捷時，在整個過程中，我們不斷提高營運效率，特別是在過去 4 個月中積累了大量的經驗教訓時，我們看到了精簡組織和降低成本的真正機會。

So there's a lot of different levers of it. It's all line of sight. There's very detailed programs to that total number, Kevin, on how we get there. It's no one silver bullet, but a lot of heavy lifting by people across the entire organization to make it happen. But it's a great year to sort of step back and say how do we complete the transformation to a specialty company, both on the commercial capability and innovation investments, which we're continuing to do, but also on how we become very cost-competitive to create value for our shareholders and stay competitive against the people we face in the marketplace. So a lot of great work there, but very clear set of action plans.

因此它有很多不同的槓桿。一切都在視線之內。凱文，對於我們如何實現這一目標，我們有非常詳細的計劃。這不是什麼靈丹妙藥，而是需要整個組織的人們付出大量艱辛的努力才能實現的。但今年是回顧過去並思考我們如何完成向專業公司的轉型的好年頭，這不僅體現在我們正在繼續進行的商業能力和創新投資方面，還體現在我們如何具有成本競爭力，為股東創造價值，並保持與市場上競爭對手的競爭力。因此，那裡有很多出色的工作，但行動計劃非常明確。

We'll now take our next question from Matthew DeYoe from Bank of America.

我們現在來回答美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe 提出的下一個問題。

So one of your competitors had talked about the fact that the outperformance -- that they outperformed autos in 2Q given the position on the supply chain and the fact that insulated them from the sell-off initially. However, that would represent a lag both in operating rates and demand pull-through as transportation rebounded. Are you seeing a similar implications on your businesses, particularly as it relates to those on OEM? Or do you see orders already kind of coming through your system?

因此，您的一位競爭對手談到了這樣的事實：鑑於其在供應鏈中的地位以及最初免受拋售的影響，他們在第二季度的表現優於汽車行業。然而，隨著運輸業的反彈，這將意味著營運率和需求拉動都會出現延遲。您是否看到您的業務受到類似的影響，特別是與 OEM 相關的業務？或者您看到訂單已經透過您的系統發送？

I think the answers are a little bit different between AM and AFP, so I'm going to sort of give it to you on both fronts.

我認為 AM 和 AFP 的答案略有不同，所以我將從兩個方面為您提供答案。

So in Advanced Materials, the supply chain there is very short. So we feel the changes in OEM behavior at production or sales level when it comes to performance films business because that's at the point-of-sale as opposed to production pretty quickly. So that's why you saw Advanced Materials take the bigger impact from COVID in the first quarter where the earnings weren't nearly as good as the recovery of earnings you saw sequentially from 4Q to 1Q in AFP. So we felt it quickly. We acted quickly, and that's also why you saw us take down a lot more operating facilities in Advanced Materials, and that demand came off in March through April, May. And we have more stand-alone facilities. These are -- shut those facilities down in AM. So very quick impact, and we already saw a very quick recovery in those businesses as we got to June. And hence, the much stronger forecast for earnings recovery and utilization benefit for Advanced Materials in the third quarter. So that played out much faster than what we're seeing in advance -- I mean Additives & Functional Products, where supply chain is much longer. So we didn't feel the impact really in the first quarter, hence, a strong earnings performance and stronger, as a result, bigger sequential drop when it finally caught up to us in the second quarter in AFP. Coatings just has a longer supply chain, same with aviation. And so we felt that and -- through the second quarter, and it's not going to come back quite as fast in the third quarter on the AFP side.

因此，在先進材料領域，供應鏈非常短。因此，當談到高性能薄膜業務時，我們很快就能感受到 OEM 在生產或銷售層面的行為變化，因為這是銷售點，而不是生產點。因此，您會看到 Advanced Materials 在第一季受到 COVID 的更大影響，其收益遠不及 AFP 從第四季到第一季連續看到的收益復甦。所以我們很快就感受到了。我們採取了迅速的行動，這也是為什麼你會看到我們關閉了先進材料部門的更多營運設施，而這種需求在三月到四月、五月期間有所下降。我們擁有更多獨立設施。這些是——在上午關閉這些設施。影響非常快，到六月我們已經看到這些業務迅速復甦。因此，對先進材料第三季獲利復甦和利用效益的預測更為強勁。因此，這一進程比我們之前看到的要快得多——我指的是添加劑和功能產品，其供應鏈要長得多。因此，我們在第一季並沒有真正感受到影響，因此，當 AFP 在第二季度最終趕上我們時，獲利表現強勁，結果就是連續下降幅度更大。塗料的供應鏈較長，航空業也是如此。因此，我們感覺到，從第二季開始，法新社的復甦速度不會在第三季那麼快。

I would also note, there's a couple of other differences. One, aviation is obviously not coming back as fast when it comes to transportation, as we call it. And about half of our automotive coatings is refinish as opposed to OEM. So AFP also doesn't see that sort of snapback in OEM production as much as AM because the refinish, obviously, is, based on our customers' comments, is going to take a little longer to recover. We do see traffic improving, and we expect a good solid recovery there, but it's not going to be as fast.

我還要指出的是，還有其他一些差異。首先，就我們所說的運輸業而言，航空業的復甦速度顯然沒有那麼快。我們的汽車塗料中約有一半是修補漆，而非 OEM 漆。因此，AFP 也沒有像 AM 那樣在 OEM 生產中看到這種反彈，因為根據我們客戶的評論，修補顯然需要更長的時間才能恢復。我們確實看到交通狀況正在改善，我們預計那裡將出現良好而穩健的復甦，但速度不會那麼快。

Okay. And so the $200 million number is pretty chunky. And in that light, I guess, absent an acquisition, is it reasonable to think you can get back to that mid-$600 million EBIT range for A&FP by 2023? And if not, what is a reasonable assumption for mid-cycle kind of earnings in that business?

好的。所以 2 億美元這個數字相當可觀。從這個角度來看，我想，如果沒有收購，您是否有理由認為到 2023 年 A&FP 的息稅前利潤可以回到 6 億美元左右？如果不是，那麼對於該業務中期週期的獲利，合理的假設是什麼？

Well, I think that as you look at AFP and earnings, first of all, we're not going to be giving forecast out to 2023 so -- but what I can say is that it's a great business, and the vast majority of the impact that this business has faced since 2018, which is where I think about where earnings were in a stable environment before the trade war started, compounded by a pandemic. The vast majority of our hit between now and then was volume mix, right, less auto demand, B&C demand, a variety of different places where we realized some impact on demand. And all that demand will come back with the market. And you got to remember that mix is a huge part of the story in both AM and AFP. So when that volume dropped in those -- in transportation or B&C or in consumer durables, that's the highest margins we have relative to company average. So big impact on the way down last year, this year. And big impact on the mirror image of it recovering. It's not just about volume recovery. That mix is a huge impact in driving value and earnings and cash. So we expect that all to come back.

嗯，我認為，當你看 AFP 和收益時，首先，我們不會給出到 2023 年的預測——但我可以說的是，這是一家偉大的企業，該企業自 2018 年以來面臨的絕大部分影響，我認為在貿易戰開始之前，收益處於穩定的環境中，再加上疫情，情況就更加複雜了。從現在到那時，我們受到的衝擊絕大多數是銷售組合，對吧，汽車需求減少，B＆C 需求減少，我們在各種不同的地方都意識到了對需求的影響。所有需求都會隨著市場回歸。你必須記住，混合是 AM 和 AFP 報告的重要組成部分。因此，當運輸、商業和零售或耐用消費品領域的銷售量下降時，我們的利潤率相對於公司平均值來說是最高的。因此，去年和今年的下滑受到了很大的影響。並對其恢復的鏡像產生很大的影響。這不僅涉及容量恢復。這種組合對於推動價值、收益和現金有著巨大的影響。因此我們期待一切都會恢復。

The other part, of course, is we're taking aggressive action on the cost side, right? So if we take $150 million out this year, make that structural into '21 and even add on another $100 million, that means we've taken out $150 million relative to 2018, '19. That offset some of the spread and competitive pressure, more than offset the spread and competitive pressure that we've seen in tires and adhesives. So there's no reason for the earnings not to be able to come back for the company to a pretty substantial level and get back. When volumes come back, we should get back to earnings being better than '19 or '18 when the volumes get back to that level.

當然，另一部分是我們在成本方面採取了積極的行動，對嗎？因此，如果我們今年拿出 1.5 億美元，將其結構性地計入 21 年，甚至再增加 1 億美元，那就意味著相對於 2018 年和 2019 年，我們已經拿出了 1.5 億美元。這抵消了部分價差和競爭壓力，超過了我們在輪胎和黏合劑領域看到的價差和競爭壓力。因此，公司獲利沒有理由不能回升到相當可觀的水平。當交易量恢復時，我們的收益應該會比 2019 年或 2018 年更好。

Okay. So message being just structural cost cuts plus volume recovery equals pressure on adhesives, animal nutrition, businesses like that, maybe, give or take, plus volume growth from there?

好的。所以，資訊只是結構性成本削減加上產量恢復等於對黏合劑、動物營養等業務的壓力，也許，或多或少，再加上產量的成長？

Yes. We still leave out the mix part. A lot of the margin comes back with that mix, not just the volume. That's -- we were trying to be very clear about that back to the Innovation day in 2018 to give you guys some sense of the significance of mix, and it's a big part of our story and growth. Of course, it cuts the other way when you have demand to come off.

是的。我們仍然省略混合部分。很多利潤都是透過這種組合來回報的，而不僅僅是數量。那是——我們試圖在 2018 年的創新日上非常清楚地說明這一點，讓你們了解混合的重要性，它是我們的故事和成長的重要組成部分。當然，當你有需求時，情況就會相反。

We'll now take our next question from Duffy Fischer from Barclays.

我們現在來回答巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾提出的下一個問題。

Could you just help -- because there's been a couple of cost takeout programs, some temporary, some permanent. If we just use Q2 as the base, how much comes out the rest of this year? And how much of that's permanent versus temporary? Then how should we think about the sequencing in '21 and '22?

您能幫忙嗎—因為已經有幾個成本扣除計劃，有些是臨時的，有些是永久的。如果我們只以第二季為基數，那麼今年剩餘時間的收入是多少？其中有多少是永久性的，有多少是暫時性的？那我們該如何考慮21年和22年的排序呢？

So Duffy, as we think about this year, there's an additional $100 million of which we'll take out. And I'll say, let's think about roughly half of that being more discretionary and half of it being structural as we make momentum on the structural aspects here in the second half.

所以達菲，當我們考慮今年時，我們將額外拿出 1 億美元。我想說的是，讓我們考慮一下其中大約一半是自由裁量的，另一半是結構性的，因為我們將在下半年在結構性方面取得進展。

As we pivot into next year, I think I highlighted earlier that we're making decisions and taking actions this year that will build roughly $50 million more of structural as we look at our asset footprint. And I'll build that connection to what Mark highlighted, and we expect network optimization to be a major driver of structural changes also in 2021. So that would basically, in that sense, keep you cost neutral year-over-year as the discretionary goes away, and we replace it with structural. Then on top of that, we see a pathway to an additional $50 million to $100 million in '21 and '22 to grow the additional increases and deliver to the bottom line.

當我們進入明年時，我想我之前強調過，我們今年正在做出決定並採取行動，當我們考慮我們的資產足跡時，這些決定和行動將增加約 5000 萬美元的結構性支出。我將與馬克所強調的內容建立聯繫，我們預計網路優化也將成為 2021 年結構變化的主要驅動力。因此，從這個意義上講，隨著可自由支配成本的消失，我們用結構性成本取而代之，這基本上可以讓你的成本同比保持中性。除此之外，我們還看到了在 2021 年和 2022 年額外增加 5,000 萬至 1 億美元以增加額外成長並實現盈利的途徑。

Okay. And then if we look at your outlook, the $120 million, half of that back $60 million offset by $10 million, that would walk to an improvement of $50 million from Q2 to Q3. Is that the baseline that then we should think about making adjustments for kind of the pricing trends and these cost takeouts? Or that's your best view on kind of all in, incorporating everything, but just a way to get us to that $50 million number? How can you parse those 2?

好的。然後，如果我們看一下您的前景，1.2 億美元，其中一半的 6000 萬美元抵消了 1000 萬美元，那麼從第二季度到第三季度，這將帶來 5000 萬美元的改善。這是我們應該考慮對定價趨勢和成本削減進行調整的基準嗎？或者這是您對「全押」的最佳看法，將所有東西都納入其中，但這只是讓我們達到 5000 萬美元這一數字的一種方式？您如何解析這兩者？

Yes. So the first step I would take is, to your point, the removal of the inventory and the impact of that in Q2, partially offset by, I'll call it, the reduced maintenance and the slightly lower cost actions. That gets us, I'll call it, to that 30 to 40 range as we think about structural cost and operational improvement. And then on top of that would be, I'll call it, the variable margin improvement for volume growth that we have sequentially.

是的。因此，正如您所說，我要採取的第一步是清除庫存，並將其對第二季度的影響部分抵消，我稱之為減少維護和略微降低成本的行動。當我們考慮結構成本和營運改進時，我們可以將其稱為 30 到 40 的範圍。最重要的是，我稱之為我們連續實現的銷售成長所帶來的可變利潤率改善。

And we're encouraged, right? So we're seeing a good build in volume, right? So we saw 8% increase in July -- I mean, June, compounded by another 4% in July. Order book so far, it's early August. But the orders being similar to July and August is good compared to the normal seasonal decline you see in August with Europe shutdowns and everything else. So, so far, off to a good start. But as we know painfully well, it's a very unpredictable year, and we'll have to see how economies are impacted by the resurgence and if there's things we don't see coming that mitigate demand.

我們很受鼓舞，對吧？所以我們看到銷量不斷成長，對嗎？因此，我們看到 7 月（也就是 6 月）成長了 8%，7 月又成長了 4%。到目前為止，訂單已經是八月初了。但與 8 月因歐洲停工和其他原因而出現的正常季節性下降相比，訂單量與 7 月和 8 月相似還是不錯的。所以，到目前為止，開局良好。但正如我們清楚知道的那樣，這是非常難以預測的一年，我們必須觀察經濟如何受到復甦的影響，以及是否存在我們無法預見的因素來減輕需求。

We'll take Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

我們將邀請 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch 來做演講。

If I could follow up on that, really appreciate Slide 5. It gives us a good confidence level in terms of the snapback and most impacted and the mixed impacted businesses. The resilient business looks like it is down 10% year-over-year in July. In the text, you suggested a moderation in that area as consumers go back to a new normal. Can you elaborate on that and perhaps offer thoughts on when that moderation may be over and what you're seeing -- what your order books are seeing in August?

如果我可以跟進的話，非常感謝幻燈片 5。它讓我們對反彈和受影響最大以及受影響程度混合的業務有了良好的信心。該業務表現堅韌，但 7 月年減了 10%。在文中，您建議隨著消費者恢復正常，該領域應採取適度措施。您能否詳細說明一下這一點，並談談這種緩和期何時結束以及您所看到的情況——8 月份的訂單情況如何？

Sure, Frank. And thanks for the question. As far as the resilient markets go, obviously, some of those markets had a real benefit from the people stocking up for COVID from grocery stores and things like that or care chemicals, same type of product. So packaging care chemicals did well, and there were some people buying some product ahead of time because they're worried about security of supply and want to make sure they had enough inventory on hand to run their operations. So you saw a little bit of that going on in some of these resilient markets.

當然，弗蘭克。感謝您的提問。就市場韌性而言，顯然，其中一些市場確實受益於人們從雜貨店等地囤積用於應對新冠肺炎疫情的物品或護理化學品等同類產品。因此，包裝護理化學品表現良好，有些人提前購買一些產品，因為他們擔心供應安全，並希望確保手邊有足夠的庫存來開展業務。因此，你會看到，在一些有彈性的市場中，這種情況就會發生。

The -- and really, what we see is demand coming off in some of those cases to what we call more normal than sort of that additional buying. So that's part of the story in some of the sort of packaging consumer markets that we all talk about and read about.

事實上，我們看到的是，在某些情況下，需求下降到了我們所說的比額外購買更正常的水平。這就是我們都談論和閱讀到的一些包裝消費市場的故事的一部分。

You also have to just remember, there is a seasonal trend down in volume from 2Q to 3Q in some markets like ag, right? So some of this volume is coming off because those markets just naturally seasonally come off sequentially from 2Q to 3Q. So you got those dynamics going on.

您還必須記住，農業等一些市場從第二季到第三季的銷售量呈現季節性下降趨勢，對嗎？因此，部分交易量正在下降，因為這些市場從第二季到第三季自然會出現季節性下降。所以你就得到了那些正在發生的動態。

I wouldn't say there's anything more dramatic than that. The only other place I can think of is in medical. We had a very high-value product in Advanced Materials where people were buying to make sure they had inventory. Then elective surgeries, obviously, didn't play out as well. So some of the demand of those products wasn't as great as they expected. And so there's some of that destocking going on.

我不認為還有比這更戲劇性的事情。我能想到的唯一其他地方是醫學領域。我們的先進材料產品價值非常高，人們購買該產品是為了確保有庫存。那麼，選擇性手術顯然沒有取得很好的效果。因此，部分產品的需求並不如他們預期的那麼大。因此，部分去庫存現象正在發生。

But I think that from a timing point of view, Frank, it's this month. July, August is where people are sort of adjusting their inventories. I don't think it extends through the rest of the year as far as some of that volume adjustment goes, and we just sort of level back out to more normal in these end markets. But we're not seeing a steady decline for a long period of time.

但我認為，從時間角度來看，弗蘭克，就是這個月。七月和八月是人們調整庫存的時期。我認為，就部分銷售調整而言，這種情況不會持續到今年剩餘時間，我們只是在這些終端市場恢復到更正常的水平。但我們並沒有看到長期持續下降的趨勢。

That's very helpful. And one of the key focuses of the "new better Eastman" is innovation. And these are obviously not normal times, but what might be helpful when people talk about innovation is providing some metrics around that in terms of the pace of progress and -- that you're making in that regard. Is there any way that you can provide some quantification on the innovation front?

這非常有幫助。而「全新、更優秀的伊士曼」的重點之一就是創新。顯然，現在不是正常時期，但當人們談論創新時，提供一些有關進步速度和你在這方面所取得的成就的指標可能會有所幫助。您能否提供一些有關創新方面的量化數據？

Well, I think that the key metric we've been using with you in the past is one we'll continue to use in the future, it's just not as useful at the moment, and that's the amount of new business revenue we close from innovation products, right? So we have a very detailed tracking system with our digital tools on every business we win, whether it was innovation-related or just good market segmentation strategy or just transactional as well as why we lose every bit of business and what we can do about it.

嗯，我認為我們過去一直使用的關鍵指標是我們未來會繼續使用的，只是目前沒那麼有用，那就是我們從創新產品中獲得的新業務收入數額，對嗎？因此，我們利用數位工具對贏得的每項業務建立了非常詳細的追蹤系統，無論它是與創新相關的，還是僅僅是良好的市場細分策略，還是僅僅是交易性的，以及我們失去每一點業務的原因以及我們能做些什麼。

And so we've been driving towards the $500 million number this year on new business from innovation, and we are well on track to hit it, even with the trade war last year, where we delivered a very good number. But obviously, this year, we're not going to get to that $500 million number when everyone has been sheltered in place for a good period of time.

因此，我們今年一直致力於實現 5 億美元的創新新業務目標，即使去年發生了貿易戰，我們也取得了非常好的成績，而且我們有望實現這一目標。但顯然，今年當所有人都在當地隔離了很長一段時間時，我們無法達到 5 億美元的數字。

What is encouraging is we see people stay highly engaged. We've had a number of wins in the circular economy, with like H&M, as I mentioned earlier, with the story we told in the prepared remarks around Triton Renew in the hydration area with Nalgene, CamelBak and a bunch of other brands that are coming on board with that recycled content offer that is so important to that customer segment that buys those kind of hydration vessels.

令人鼓舞的是，我們看到人們仍然高度參與。我們在循環經濟領域取得了許多成功，就像我之前提到的那樣，我們在準備好的發言中講述了水壺領域 Triton Renew 的故事，Nalgene、CamelBak 和其他一些品牌也加入了這一行列，提供再生材料，這對於購買此類水壺的客戶群體來說非常重要。

So we are seeing good wins. But there's also a lot of places where virtually, we're still working with our customers on coating additives, tire additives, odor-free adhesives, the next-generation of HUD and acoustic interlayers that we're launching. There's activity in every place where people are still working their innovation agenda, which is the only way you grow out of this and create your own growth. But we're not going to have a -- we're not going to get to the $500 million in this context. But I do expect with the activity we're seeing that we'll snap to it pretty quickly once we get into recovery mode and people can start interacting with each other physically.

所以我們看到了好的勝利。但實際上，在許多地方，我們仍在與客戶合作，共同研發塗料添加劑、輪胎添加劑、無味黏合劑以及我們正在推出的下一代HUD和聲學夾層。每個地方的人們都在積極地制定創新計劃，這是擺脫困境、實現自身發展的唯一方法。但我們不會——在這種情況下我們不會達到 5 億美元。但我確實希望，透過我們所看到的活動，一旦我們進入恢復模式並且人們可以開始進行身體互動，我們很快就會適應它。

We will now take our next question from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

我們現在將回答摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas 提出的下一個問題。

Your fluids business, I think, in 2019 was $460 million in revenues. How much of that is aviation fluid? And how much is the aviation fluid down? Or where do you expect it to be down this year?

我認為，你們的流體業務在 2019 年的收入為 4.6 億美元。其中有多少是航空液體？那麼航空液體下降了多少呢？或者您預計今年它會下降到什麼程度？

So when I look at the fluids business, Jeff, I'd say it's about half and half. And clearly, the aviation side of that portfolio, which is very high-margin business, is down dramatically, consistent with the miles flown of airplanes. We're very sort of miles flown-driven with that business, and so it's going to recover slowly.

因此，傑夫，當我看流體業務時，我會說它大約是一半一半。顯然，該投資組合中的航空業務（利潤率非常高）大幅下滑，與飛機的飛行里程數一致。我們的業務很大程度上依賴飛行里程，因此它將緩慢復甦。

When it comes to the other side, though, I want to highlight the heat transfer fluids business is actually doing great and actually going to deliver growth this year over last year. So one of the bright spots in the 2/3 of AFP in addition to care chemicals and pharma and packaging and even residential architectural businesses, we got a lot of growth going on in a number of those businesses that's held in fairly well.

不過，談到另一方面，我想強調的是，傳熱流體業務實際上做得很好，今年實際上將比去年成長。因此，除了護理化學品、製藥、包裝甚至住宅建築業務之外，AFP 2/3 業務中的亮點之一是，我們的許多業務都實現了大幅增長，並且保持了相當好的勢頭。

And secondly, you talked a lot about cost achievements. But as best as I can tell, SG&A was down $10 million in the quarter, which is about 6% and your sales were down, I don't know, 19. Why isn't SG&A down more? Do you have an SG&A target in terms of the cost reductions?

其次，您談了很多關於成本成就的問題。但據我所知，本季銷售、一般及行政費用下降了 1000 萬美元，約佔 6%，而你們的銷售額下降了，我不知道，19。為什麼銷售、一般及行政費用沒有進一步下降？在成本削減方面，你們是否有銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 目標？

So Jeff, this is Willie. What I would highlight to you is if you think about the $150 million, we're going to get roughly $100 million of that through the, I'll call it, manufacturing cost line is roughly $50 million through the SGA/R&D lines.

傑夫，這是威利。我想向你強調的是，如果你考慮 1.5 億美元，我們將透過我稱之為製造成本線獲得其中大約 1 億美元，透過 SGA/R&D 線獲得大約 5000 萬美元。

As you've seen from Q1 to Q2, we've got some, I'll call it, variable compensation plans that are linked to market-based. And with the recovery in the stock market that occurred in Q2, that basically offset the cost savings within the quarter.

正如您從第一季到第二季看到的，我們有一些與市場掛鉤的浮動薪酬計劃。隨著第二季股市的復甦，這基本上抵消了本季的成本節省。

How much was that? How much got offset?

那多少錢？抵消了多少？

The way I think about that, roughly, it's in the -- I'll call it, the $10 million range.

我認為，大概是──我稱之為，1000 萬美元左右。

Moving on to our next question, we will take David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

進入我們的下一個問題，我們將請德意志銀行的 David Begleiter 來回答。

Mark, can you discuss trends in raw materials, what you saw in Q2 and what you were expecting in the back half of the year?

馬克，您能討論一下原材料的趨勢、您在第二季度看到的情況以及您對今年下半年的預期嗎？

Sure. Dave, so the raw material trends, as you think about it, obviously, have come off in first quarter, second quarter. And it's actually helpful to think about raw material trends back to the third quarter of '18, right? So with the trade war, we saw price of our petrochemical derivatives that we're buying, for example, come off a lot last year faster than oil did. So even though oil came off a lot this year, many of the derivatives of oil had already come off pretty substantially. So a big part of the raw material trend from all of this happened last year as opposed to this year. But we certainly have seen some benefits in raw materials through the first half of this year.

當然。戴夫，所以，正如您所想，原材料趨勢顯然在第一季和第二季已經下降。回顧 2018 年第三季的原材料趨勢實際上是有幫助的，對吧？因此，隨著貿易戰的爆發，我們看到我們購買的石化衍生品的價格去年下跌的速度比石油下跌的速度要快得多。因此，儘管今年石油價格大幅下跌，但許多石油衍生性商品的價格也大幅下跌。因此，原材料趨勢很大一部分發生在去年，而不是今年。但今年上半年我們確實看到原物料價格出現了一些上漲。

As we look to the second half of the year, some raws, I think, are expected to stay relatively flat or moderated, if you will, like paraxylene. But then you've got other places like you saw already in the second quarter where propane moved up pretty dramatically and PGP didn't. So you've got things moving around a lot of different directions.

展望下半年，我認為預計一些原料價格將保持相對平穩或溫和，例如對二甲苯。但是，正如您在第二季度所看到的，其他地方的丙烷價格大幅上漲，而 PGP 價格卻沒有上漲。因此，事情正在朝著許多不同的方向發展。

We're not expecting a huge raw material headwind as we look at the back half of the year. Our forecasting and plans assume that there's going to be some increase in some of those raw material costs, but we have a bunch of plans in place like in Chemical Intermediates, we're moving prices up already consistent with the raw material environment to stay track. But we think we're in good shape as far as spreads go when it comes to the back half of the year.

展望今年下半年，我們預期原物料市場不會造成巨大阻力。我們的預測和計劃假設部分原材料成本將會增加，但我們已經制定了一系列計劃，例如在化學中間體方面，我們正在根據原材料環境調整價格以保持追蹤。但我們認為，就今年下半年的利差而言，我們的狀況良好。

Very good. And just lastly, just on -- do you see those capital allocation priorities for the back half of the year, you did some buybacks in Q1 and Q2. Maybe discuss buybacks versus debt reduction as well as other actions.

非常好。最後，您是否看到了下半年的資本配置重點，您在第一季和第二季進行了一些回購。也許可以討論回購與減債以及其他行動。

Thanks, David, for the question. Obviously, first and foremost, focused on our strong and solid dividend being the first priority. Also, as we've highlighted, we're expecting to pay back greater than $600 million. Our net debt is down almost $200 million in the first half. We would expect that to grow to roughly greater than $600 million in the back half. And we've paused the share buybacks until we meet those objectives. And as we look into 2021 with growth and recovery, we'll reevaluate the pace at which we do that.

謝謝 David 提出這個問題。顯然，首先，我們優先考慮的是強勁而穩固的股息。此外，正如我們所強調的，我們預計將償還超過 6 億美元。上半年我們的淨債務減少了近 2 億美元。我們預計下半年這一數字將成長至約 6 億美元以上。我們已暫停股票回購，直到實現這些目標為止。當我們展望2021年的成長和復甦時，我們將重新評估我們實現這一目標的步伐。

We will now take our next question from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

我們現在將回答花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, can you discuss your intermediate business? Some products like glycols, you already had new capacity before the pandemic started. And that was weak -- actually, this was weak also for you. So can you just discuss what happened and then outlook for second half?

馬克，你能討論一下你的中間業務嗎？有些產品，如乙二醇，在疫情開始前就已經有了新的產能。這很弱 — — 事實上，這對你來說也很弱。那麼你能討論一下發生了什麼事以及對下半年的展望嗎？

Sure. So obviously, in an environment where demand drops significantly relative to capacity available in Chemical Intermediates products, the prices are going to follow raws, which is predominantly what we've seen. The only place where we've really seen material spread compression due to competitive activities is in this disconnect we saw in the second quarter between propane and propylene. And that really resulted in some challenging raw material costs in the market that sets the price in the marketplace, which is PGP obviously didn't go up and went down, and that was a tough combination. Fortunately, we've already seen that sort of corrected back to a more normal relationship through July into the beginning of August here where PGP has gone up dramatically, where propane has been sort of holding steady. So we feel good about how that's corrected already into this quarter.

當然。因此，顯然，在需求相對於化學中間體產品可用產能大幅下降的環境下，價格將跟隨原料價格而變化，而這正是我們所看到的。我們真正看到由於競爭活動而導致材料價差壓縮的唯一地方是第二季度丙烷和丙烯之間的脫節。這確實導致了市場上一些具有挑戰性的原材料成本，從而決定了市場價格，而 PGP 的價格顯然沒有上漲，反而下跌了，這是一個艱難的組合。幸運的是，我們已經看到這種關係在 7 月到 8 月初有所調整，回到了更正常的狀態，其中 PGP 價格大幅上漲，而丙烷價格則保持穩定。因此，我們對本季已經得到糾正的情況感到滿意。

On the acetyl side, we've seen some compression, obviously, as oil prices and methanol, that sets the price in the marketplace, comes off. We feel some of that compression relative to our cost structure, which is principally based on coal.

在乙醯基方面，我們明顯看到了一些壓縮，因為決定市場價格的石油和甲醇價格下跌。我們的成本結構主要基於煤炭，我們感受到了一定的壓縮。

So those are the places where we're seeing some of the pressure. But the big -- but spreads overall have been relatively good. So that's not the story. As you can see in our revenue table, the bigger impact for us has been volume as opposed to price on a first half basis, where you've really -- especially in the second quarter, had that impact on COVID-related demand not being there and some of the export markets that we would normally clear capacity not being as available when oil prices drop so much. And generally, that's not a high-margin business for us, but still it has a significant impact on the volume and that contribution margin that comes into pay for some of the integrated fixed cost to the overall complex. So those are really the sort of the key stories there. I think they're all due to extraordinary circumstance in the second quarter. A lot of this will continue into the third quarter, but no reason this won't recover as we go into next year.

所以這些就是我們看到一些壓力的地方。但整體而言，利差相對較好。故事並非如此。正如您在我們的收入表中所看到的，對我們而言，上半年受銷量而非價格影響更大的是銷量，尤其是在第二季度，由於與 COVID 相關的市場需求減少，以及油價大幅下跌導致我們通常會清理產能的一些出口市場變得不那麼可用，因此這種影響確實存在。一般來說，這對我們來說不是一個高利潤的業務，但它仍然對銷量和貢獻利潤有重大影響，用於支付整個綜合體的部分綜合固定成本。這些確實都是那裡的關鍵故事。我認為這些都是由於第二季的特殊情況造成的。這種情況將持續到第三季度，但沒有理由說它不會在進入明年時復甦。

Okay. And my second question is on the charge that you took in tire additives. There was quite a large charge of $128 million in that segment. What triggered that? Is that due to low utilization? And then what happens when volumes come back next year?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於你們涉嫌輪胎添加劑的指控。該部分的支出相當大，達到 1.28 億美元。是什麼引發了這種情況？這是因為利用率低嗎？那麼明年產量回升時會發生什麼事呢？

Sure, P.J. This is Willie. So as you think about the impacts that COVID has had on the transportation market more broadly as well as the impact on utilization, which you've highlighted, we had to assess the value of certain businesses and specifically, tire additives. So the biggest piece of the impairment was related to, I'll call it, the trade names of Crystex and Santoflex. And that's related to a revenue outlook as you look at valuing those on a royalty basis. So as the revenue outlook is much deteriorated at the starting point of where we're valuing this as well as the rates being lower resulted in the impairment that you see. Obviously, with accounting, once you write it off, you don't get to write it back on when things recover.

當然，P.J. 這是威利。因此，當您考慮 COVID 對運輸市場的更廣泛影響以及您所強調的對利用率的影響時，我們必須評估某些業務的價值，特別是輪胎添加劑。因此，最大的損害部分與 Crystex 和 Santoflex 的商品名有關。當您以特許權使用費為基礎評估這些收入時，這與收入前景有關。因此，由於我們在評估的起點上收入前景大大惡化，而且利率較低，導致了您所看到的減損。顯然，按照會計規定，一旦你將其註銷，當情況恢復時你就無法將其重新記入。

The great part of accounting, which is we dramatically improved the value of businesses like performance films and interlayers from what we bought it, but you don't get to write up the asset values, but you have to take the impairments wherever these kind of issues occur.

會計的優點在於，我們大大提高了性能膜和夾層等企業的價值，使其與我們所購買的企業的價值相比有所提高，但您無需寫下資產價值，而必須在出現此類問題時承擔損失。

Right. You are not alone in taking these charges this quarter. But does that mean that margins look better next year when volumes come back?

正確的。本季度，您並不是唯一一個承擔這些指控的人。但這是否意味著明年銷售回升時利潤率會更好呢？

No. P.J., I think as we've highlighted through this, if you take roughly half of the $140 million across the company, $70 million of that was due to the, I'll call it, utilization impacts across the company, and that will result in a tailwind at even flat volumes. So as we think about growing volumes next year in a recovery, holding costs flat, this will result in good momentum as we go into 2021.

不。P.J.，我認為，正如我們所強調的那樣，如果從整個公司的 1.4 億美元中拿出大約一半，那麼其中的 7000 萬美元是由於（我稱之為）整個公司的利用率影響，這將導致即使在交易量持平的情況下也會出現順風。因此，當我們考慮明年在復甦中增加產量並保持成本穩定時，這將為我們進入 2021 年帶來良好的勢頭。

And specific to tires, we're actually seeing a strong recovery in volumes into the third quarter. So that's one of the -- when you look at that line on Page 5 about volume recovering back, a big part of the snapback in that volume is actually in tires. The competitive dynamics are still there, so pricing is going to improve for some period of time, but the volume is really starting to come back.

具體到輪胎，我們實際上看到第三季銷售強勁復甦。所以這是其中之一——當你看到第 5 頁關於交易量恢復的那一行時，你會發現交易量的很大一部分反彈實際上是來自輪胎。競爭態勢仍然存在，因此價格在一段時間內還會有所改善，但銷量確實開始回升。

We'll now take our next question from John Roberts from UBS.

我們現在來回答瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲提出的下一個問題。

It used to be that cig tow held up well in a recession because people smoke more when they're under stress. It was down a little in the third quarter. It looks like the outlook is to be down a little bit further. How comfortable are you that this is just order patterns or that maybe there's something else going on here?

過去，在經濟衰退期間，香菸銷售表現良好，因為人們在壓力之下會吸更多煙。第三季略有下降。看起來前景還會進一步下滑。您是否確信這只是順序模式，或者這裡可能發生了其他事情？

So we don't have any evidence that there's something else going on, John. As you said, it was incredibly stable in the '08, '09 recession. There is a general trend where the market is always sort of declining in that 2% to 3% range, as we've said in the past. And we expect that to be the story this year.

所以我們沒有任何證據表明還有其他事情發生，約翰。正如您所說，它在 2008 年和 2009 年的經濟衰退中表現得異常穩定。正如我們過去所說的那樣，市場總體趨勢總是在 2% 到 3% 的範圍內下滑。我們預計今年的情況也將如此。

There's a lot of different stories out there at the moment that are all sort of breaking in the last couple of weeks where different cigarette companies are having -- doing well and others are not doing well. So you really have to get into the details of what's going behind each of those companies. But overall, when we put it all together, we think market demand is sort of decline in that 2% to 3% range outside of China. China and the data suggests it's stable to sort of up maybe 2%, which is about half of the cigarette demand in the world. So that's all sort of put together in the market outlook.

目前，有許多不同的故事在最近幾週內爆發，不同的菸草公司表現良好，而其他菸草公司則表現不佳。所以你真的必須了解每家公司背後的細節。但總體而言，當我們把所有因素綜合起來時，我們認為中國以外的市場需求將下降 2% 至 3%。中國的數據表明，其成長速度穩定在 2% 左右，約佔全球香菸需求量的一半。這就是市場前景的全部內容。

When it comes to customer buying patterns, as we have discussed many times in the past, it is a bit, as we called it, chunky. And what we saw is good demand, obviously, in the first quarter as well as good demand in the second quarter. Some of that was buying some incremental tow for security reasons with all the uncertainty of COVID. And that's why we expect volumes to trend off modestly as we go into the third quarter. But overall, we still view this as tow very stable and especially with the cost actions we're taking at the earnings and cash flow level.

當談到客戶購買模式時，正如我們過去多次討論過的那樣，它有點，正如我們所說的，笨重。顯然，我們看到第一季的需求良好，第二季的需求也很好。其中一些是出於安全原因，在 COVID 存在諸多不確定性的情況下購買一些增量拖車。這就是為什麼我們預計進入第三季時交易量將出現小幅下降。但總體而言，我們仍然認為這種情況非常穩定，尤其是考慮到我們在收益和現金流量水準上採取的成本行動。

On the textile side, of course, which has been growing to offset some of this underlying market decline on tow, we're not going to get that this year with the textile market being so challenged. It doesn't give us any concern for the long term. I think textiles is an incredibly exciting opportunity for us, especially now with the circular economy, as I answered in the first question. Really, see a lot of opportunity to grow in the target markets, right? So if you think about women's wear, down about 15% year-over-year in the first half of the year versus a market of 30%. As I said, when we look at the forecast for this quarter, probably a 40% sequential improvement off of the second quarter in women's wear. The problem right now is some of the traditional markets that we've gone into, like suit linings, obviously, not much demand for those right now in this environment as everyone is working virtually. And so that's offsetting some of this. But that will correct itself, and we expect good growth out of that in next year as a way to continue filling the assets and levering the integrated complex up.

當然，在紡織品方面，雖然其成長已經抵消了部分絲束市場的潛在下滑，但由於紡織市場面臨如此大的挑戰，今年我們無法實現這一目標。它不會給我們帶來任何長期的擔憂。我認為紡織品對我們來說是一個非常令人興奮的機會，特別是現在有了循環經濟，正如我在第一個問題中回答的那樣。確實，在目標市場中看到了許多成長機會，對嗎？因此，如果您考慮女裝，今年上半年的銷售額同比下降了約 15%，而整個市場的銷售額則增長了 30%。正如我所說，當我們查看本季度的預測時，女裝的銷量可能比第二季度環比增長 40%。現在的問題是，我們進入的一些傳統市場，例如西裝襯裡，顯然在目前的環境下對這些市場的需求並不大，因為每個人都在虛擬工作。這樣就抵消了部分影響。但這種情況會自行糾正，我們預計明年將出現良好的成長，從而繼續填補資產並提升綜合體。

And then are you having any issues getting recycled material for your gasification process? And is pricing for green material an issue now that virgin raw material is cheaper or virgin materials are cheaper?

那麼，您在氣化過程中取得回收材料時遇到什麼問題嗎？現在原始原料或原始材料更便宜，綠色材料的定價是否是個問題？

Yes. So it is a very complicated market when you look at recycled content, and we are doing our best to segment it. What's great about our strategy is molecular recycling does not require high-quality recycled content. We can use which product that has no other use. So we can take carpet, we can take textiles, we can take plastic that cannot be used in mechanical recycling and grind it up and use it in the gas part and we can grind it up and use it in the methanolysis plant for polyester recycling. So we don't have to compete against that high-quality stuff that is -- and the price there is going up a lot, significantly higher than virgin PET in Europe right now. Last year, almost 60%. But we don't have to compete with that. I mean, there's a little bit of that we'll buy in the beginning, but we can really access what is truly has no alternative use that's going into landfill.

是的。因此，當你看回收材料時，這是一個非常複雜的市場，我們正在盡最大努力對其進行細分。我們的策略的優點在於分子回收不需要高品質的回收材料。我們可以使用沒有其他用途的產品。因此，我們可以將地毯、紡織品和不能用於機械回收的塑膠磨碎，然後用於氣體部分，也可以將磨碎的塑膠用於甲醇分解工廠進行聚酯回收。因此，我們不必與那些高品質的產品競爭——而且那裡的價格上漲了很多，明顯高於目前歐洲的原生 PET。去年幾乎達到 60%。但我們不必與之競爭。我的意思是，一開始我們會買一點，但我們真正可以利用的是那些沒有其他用途、只能被填埋的垃圾。

We'll now take our next question from Mike Sison from Wells Fargo.

我們現在來回答富國銀行的麥克·西森提出的下一個問題。

Just curious how you think about the fourth quarter. And I know it's a lot of variables there, but can you get sequential improvement in earnings again? And you do have cost savings pick up some of the inventory reductions. But clearly, the question is, what you're hearing from your customers. Do we see a normal seasonal downtick in the fourth quarter? Is it possible that we can continue to improve sequentially? So just curious your thoughts there on the fourth quarter.

只是好奇您對第四季有何看法。我知道這其中有很多變量，但你的收益能否再次連續改善？而且你確實可以節省成本並減少部分庫存。但顯然，問題在於你從客戶那裡聽到了什麼。我們是否會看到第四季出現正常的季節性下滑？我們是否可以繼續逐步改進？所以只是好奇您對第四季的看法。

Yes. I think that the fourth quarter is awfully difficult to call at this point with all the uncertainties of what's going to happen with COVID, the election, et cetera. But what I do think will happen is there'll be some markets where you'll have just normal seasonal decline demand like construction activity in the winter. But I don't think you're going to see the same kind of inventory destocking that you've seen in the past because we've all been doing it pretty aggressively in the second quarter and the third quarter. So I think you avoid that relative to what happened last year. And if people are looking at next year and the economy is looking positive, you're going to actually probably having some people start building inventory to serve that demand as they go into the first quarter.

是的。我認為，由於新冠疫情、選舉等許多不確定因素，目前很難預測第四季的前景。但我確實認為會發生的情況是，有些市場會出現正常的季節性需求下降，例如冬季的建築活動。但我不認為你會看到像過去那樣的庫存去庫存現象，因為我們在第二季和第三季已經非常積極地進行了去庫存。因此我認為與去年發生的情況相比，你可以避免這種情況。如果人們展望明年，並且經濟狀況看好，那麼在進入第一季時，有些人可能會開始建立庫存來滿足需求。

So I couldn't pretend to know how all those are going to balance together. I know that we've managed our inventory aggressively in the second and third quarter, so we're not going to be doing much destocking in the fourth quarter. So that's certainly going to help not just where we go with inventory, but also asset utilization will continue to get better as we go from 3Q to 4Q.

所以我不能假裝知道所有這些將如何平衡在一起。我知道我們在第二季和第三季積極​​管理庫存，因此我們不會在第四季進行大量去庫存。因此，這肯定不僅有助於我們解決庫存問題，而且隨著從第三季度到第四季度，資產利用率也將繼續提高。

So I think we'll have some benefits on the cost structure side, both in asset utilization getting better as well as the cost actions we're taking. Demand could be a bit better than you might think. So as we look at it as a sequential improvement from 3Q, I'm not sure we can get all way back to 4Q of last year, but somewhere in that range seems feasible. But I got to emphasize, we're not giving guidance for the year for a reason, which is we have no idea what fourth quarter is going to look like at this stage. No one does.

因此，我認為我們在成本結構方面會有一些好處，包括資產利用率的提高以及我們正在採取的成本行動。需求可能會比你想像的要好一些。因此，當我們將其視為第三季度以來的連續改善時，我不確定我們是否可以完全回到去年第四季度的水平，但在這個範圍內的某個地方似乎是可行的。但我必須強調，我們沒有給出今年的指導是有原因的，因為我們目前不知道第四季的情況會是什麼樣子。沒人知道。

Understood. And then one quick one on the inventory reduction, $140 million number that was reduced by EBIT. I think you said that you got $70 million or half back on flat volume. What volume level do you get it all back in '21?

明白了。然後快速看一下庫存減少情況，息稅前利潤減少了 1.4 億美元。我想您說過，在交易量持平的情況下，您收回了 7,000 萬美元或一半的資金。您可以在 21 年將音量恢復到什麼水平？

Yes. So the way I think about that, Mike, is, basically, you've got to get back to 2019 levels, as we think about fully absorbing all of that. Because at the end of the day, what we did is we pulled fixed costs from 2019 inventory levels into the P&L here in 2020 as we reduced it.

是的。因此，麥克，我對此的看法是，基本上，你必須回到 2019 年的水平，因為我們考慮完全吸收所有這些。因為歸根究底，我們所做的就是將 2019 年庫存水準的固定成本納入 2020 年的損益表中，因為我們減少了固定成本。

And you use the $140 million number for the year-over-year number when you think about '21 versus '20, not the $120 million sequential from 1Q to 2Q. So it's about half of that $140 million. You definitely get back with just flat volumes, and then the rest is upside with volume growth.

當您考慮 21 年與 20 年的比較時，您會使用 1.4 億美元作為同比數字，而不是從第一季到第二季的 1.2 億美元連續數字。所以這大約是 1.4 億美元的一半。你肯定會以平穩的交易量獲得回報，然後其餘的一切都是隨著交易量增長而上升的。

We will now take our next question from Alex Yefremov from Keybanc.

我們現在將回答 Keybanc 的 Alex Yefremov 提出的下一個問題。

Based on what you saw in July and early August, so how are volumes tracking for the third quarter versus second quarter on a year-over-year basis for the company overall?

根據您在 7 月和 8 月初看到的情況，那麼公司第三季與第二季相比的銷量比去年同期如何？

I think, as we had highlighted earlier, we've got good momentum. We had 8% growth from June to July. And we continue to see things in August to be roughly flat with July, which is, I would say, positive overall. Normally, we would see a seasonal decline in the August in Europe, but continued good momentum.

我認為，正如我們之前強調的那樣，我們擁有良好的發展勢頭。從六月到七月，我們的成長率達到了 8%。我們繼續看到八月份的情況與七月份基本持平，我認為這總體上是積極的。通常情況下，我們會看到歐洲八月出現季節性下滑，但目前仍保持著良好的動能。

We certainly see volumes for the third quarter and second quarter.

我們確實看到了第三季和第二季的交易量。

Right. It's just hard to do the math because the base effect is so difficult in the second quarter. So maybe I'll try a little bit differently.

正確的。由於第二季的基數效應非常困難，因此很難進行計算。所以也許我會嘗試一些不同的東西。

In your monthly volume slide, it appears to show that you were about down 12% year-over-year in July for corporate average. So that seems to be roughly in line with minus 13% that you posted for the second quarter on average. Am I looking at this correctly? And do you expect on a year-over-year basis, August and September to be better from a volume perspective than July?

在您的月度交易量幻燈片中，似乎顯示您 7 月份的企業平均交易量同比下降了約 12%。因此，這似乎與您公佈的第二季平均下降 13% 大致相符。我這樣看對了嗎？與去年同期相比，您是否預期 8 月和 9 月的銷售量會比 7 月更好？

Alex, I think that's a reasonable assumption based on the momentum that we see.

亞歷克斯，我認為根據我們所看到的勢頭，這是一個合理的假設。

Let's make the next question the last one, please.

請將下一個問題作為最後一個問題。

Sure, and that comes from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

當然，這是由傑富瑞集團的勞倫斯·亞歷山大 (Laurence Alexander) 提出的。

Can you help on 2 things? In the markets where you are outgrowing the end market because of innovation and better market relevance, should we expect a slingshot effect where volumes come back, you should have a multiplier on that? Or should we see the spread as being roughly stable in the recovery because it makes quite a difference in how we think about operating leverage over the next 2, 3 years?

您能幫忙做兩件事嗎？在因創新和更好的市場相關性而成長超過終端市場的市場中，我們是否應該期待銷量回升的彈弓效應，您應該對此有一個乘數？或者我們應該認為利差在復甦過程中大致保持穩定，因為這對我們如何看待未來 2、3 年的營運槓桿有很大影響？

And secondly, to the extent that you're -- the structural realignments that you're doing, to what extent should this be viewed as establishing a playbook so that future acquisitions will be integrated with a higher level of synergies upfront? Or is this a kind of one-off geometry and we shouldn't read beyond that?

其次，就你們正在進行的結構性調整而言，這在多大程度上應該被視為製定一個劇本，以便未來的收購能夠在前期實現更高水準的協同效應？或者這是一種一次性的幾何學，我們不應該進一步了解它？

I'll take the first part and let you take the second part, Willie. On the revenue side, look, we expect recovery. And as I said, the mix hit that we took on the way down was our highest value segments. And the innovation we're driving also tend to have margins way above company average in all the different products we've launched. So as you see volume recovery come, that mix leverage is pretty significant. You'll see that in Advanced Materials this quarter, and you've seen it for years in Advanced Materials. So we expect a lot of pretty high incremental margins in a recovery scenario, especially with the cost actions we've taken. So you don't have any fixed cost headwinds offsetting that variable margin growth. And you've got this utilization benefit we've identified.

我負責第一部分，你負責第二部分，威利。在收入方面，我們預期會出現復甦。正如我所說，我們在下滑過程中遭受的打擊是我們價值最高的部分。而且，我們所推動的創新也往往使我們所推出的所有不同產品的利潤率遠高於公司的平均水準。因此，當您看到交易量恢復時，該組合槓桿就相當顯著。您將在本季的《先進材料》中看到這一點，而且您多年來一直在《先進材料》中看到這一點。因此，我們預計在復甦情況下會有相當高的增量利潤，特別是在我們採取了成本行動之後。因此，您不會遇到任何固定成本阻力來抵消可變利潤的成長。您已經獲得了我們所確定的利用效益。

So I think we're feeling pretty good about how the earnings can come back in that scenario, but it requires economies recover. We're not about to try and tell you when we think we're going to get back to '19 or '18 levels in this economy. But we certainly expect, given what we know today, '21 to be better than '20 when it comes to economy and demand.

因此，我認為我們對盈利在這種情況下如何回升感到相當樂觀，但這需要經濟復甦。我們不會試圖告訴您何時我們認為我們的經濟將恢復到 19 年或 18 年的水平。但根據我們今天所了解的情況，我們當然預期 2021 年的經濟和需求會比 2020 年更好。

And innovation, I think, is still key. You've got markets where we've had incredible success in innovation like performance films, where we set a record in revenue in June in this very down automotive market, heads-up display, Tritan, the circular economy, new coalescence and architecture, et cetera. We have a lot going on across all 3 segments, including fibers, where we're creating our own growth despite the economic circumstances.

我認為創新仍然是關鍵。我們在一些市場創新方面取得了令人難以置信的成功，例如高性能薄膜，在汽車市場低迷的六月份，我們的收入創下了歷史新高，此外還有平視顯示器、Tritan、循環經濟、新型聚結和建築等。我們在包括纖維在內的所有三個領域都有很多進展，儘管經濟狀況不佳，但我們仍在創造自己的成長。

And on the synergy question, what I would say, we were very pleased with the synergy levels that we achieved on our previous acquisitions, with above, I'll call it, industry benchmark levels. But what I would say is, obviously, we've gone through a trade war. We're going through a pandemic. And also on the digital front, there are more solutions today than when we did this acquisition. We continue to learn, and we will apply those as we move forward and as we think about future acquisitions and portfolio changes.

關於綜效問題，我想說的是，我們對先前的收購所取得的協同效應水準感到非常滿意，我稱之為高於產業基準水準。但我想說的是，顯然我們經歷了一場貿易戰。我們正在經歷一場大流行。而且在數位領域，現在的解決方案比我們進行收購時更多。我們將繼續學習，並將在前進的過程中以及在考慮未來的收購和投資組合變化時運用這些知識。

Okay. Thanks again, everyone, for joining us this morning. We appreciate your time. I hope you have a great day.

好的。再次感謝大家今天早上加入我們。感謝您的時間。祝您有個愉快的一天。

And that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。