伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Eastman Chemical Fourth Quarter Full Year 2019 Conference Call. This conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman's website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化學2019年第四季全年電話會議。此次會議正在錄製中。這場電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將電話轉給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Diana, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Curt Espeland, Executive Vice President and CFO; Willie McLain, Vice President, Finance; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝你，戴安娜，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、執行副總裁兼首席財務官科特·埃斯佩蘭 (Curt Espeland)、財務副總裁威利·麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain) 和投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual results or events concerning our plans and expectations could change. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in the company's fourth quarter and full year 2019 financial results news release during this call and in the accompanying slides and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-Q filed for third quarter 2019 and the Form 10-K to be filed for full year 2019.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。與我們的計劃和期望有關的實際結果或事件可能會發生變化。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在公司本次電話會議期間發布的 2019 年第四季度和全年財務業績新聞稿以及隨附的幻燈片和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的 2019 年第三季度 10-Q 表和即將提交的 2019 年全年 10-K 表。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the fourth quarter and full year 2019 financial results in this release, which can be found on our website, www.eastman.com, in the Investors section. Projections of future earnings exclude any noncore, unusual or nonrecurring items.

其次，本簡報中提到的收益不包括某些非核心和不尋常的項目。本新聞稿中的 2019 年第四季度和全年財務業績提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標及其他相關披露的對賬，包括對排除項目和調整項目的描述，可在我們的網站 www.eastman.com 的“投資者”部分找到。未來收益預測不包括任何非核心、不尋常或非經常性項目。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with the full year 2019 highlights on Page 3.

謝謝，格雷格，大家早安。我將從第 3 頁開始介紹 2019 年全年的亮點。

2019 was a significant year of macroeconomic challenges that continue to get tougher through the year. I'm incredibly proud of how Eastman employees around the world responded to these challenges and stepped up to the plate to deliver almost $400 million in new business revenue closes from innovation, led by Advanced Materials, which has achieved a decade of EBIT growth in 2019. We delivered on our cost management targets while we continue to make progress on our innovation programs. I'm also proud of how our cash engine generated free cash flow at a record level of almost $1.1 billion for the third consecutive year.

2019 年是宏觀經濟挑戰重要的一年，而且全年挑戰持續加劇。我為伊士曼全球員工應對這些挑戰、挺身而出、透過創新實現近 4 億美元新業務收入感到無比自豪，其中先進材料業務部尤為突出，2019 年實現了息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 十年來的最高增長。我們實現了成本管理目標，同時我們的創新計劃繼續取得進展。我也為我們的現金引擎連續第三年創造近 11 億美元的創紀錄自由現金流而感到自豪。

Although we aren't satisfied with our earnings performance and it was a difficult environment, we're well positioned for earnings growth in 2020 and going forward.

儘管我們對獲利表現並不滿意，而且環境也很艱難，但我們已為 2020 年及未來的獲利成長做好了準備。

Here are a few highlights from 2019. First, we're celebrating Eastman's centennial this year. Our 100-year history is filled with many successes and meaningful innovations that have enhanced the quality of life in a material way. The segment that best demonstrates this innovative spirit is Advanced Materials, which delivered impressive results considering the challenging macroenvironment. Advanced Materials greatly outperformed its underlying markets despite its exposure to transportation plus several other consumer discretionary markets. And as our free cash flow results demonstrate, we can consistently deliver in any environment.

以下是 2019 年的一些亮點。首先，我們今年慶祝伊士曼百年誕辰。我們的百年歷史充滿了許多成功和有意義的創新，從物質上提高了生活品質。最能體現這種創新精神的領域是先進材料，在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境下，該領域取得了令人矚目的成就。儘管先進材料涉足運輸業和其他幾個非必需消費品市場，但它的表現仍遠遠優於其基礎市場。正如我們的自由現金流結果所顯示的，我們可以在任何環境下持續實現目標。

We continue to push our cash to work in a disciplined way, including significant delevering, which will remain a priority for us in 2020; bolt-on M&A like you saw with Marlotherm and INACSA this year, 2 great businesses opening up new markets for our technologies; and capital returns through a combination of share repurchases and dividends, which have increased for 10 consecutive years.

我們將繼續以嚴謹的方式推動現金流的運作，包括大幅去槓桿，這仍將是我們在 2020 年的首要任務；像今年 Marlotherm 和 INACSA 那樣的附加併購，這兩家優秀的企業為我們的技術開闢了新的市場；以及通過股票回購和股息相結合的方式實現的資本回報，這已連續 10 年增加。

Finally on a personal note, I want to highlight that Curt Espeland, our CFO of 11 years, has elected to retire in 2020 after nearly 1/4 century of service. Curt's a hugely talented financial professional and has had an extraordinary career. I'm personally very grateful for his pragmatic leadership and the vital role he has played in the portfolio transformation, which has been a foundational element of our strategy to become a leading specialty materials company.

最後，就我個人而言，我想強調的是，擔任我們財務長 11 年的 Curt Espeland 在服務近四分之一個世紀後，選擇於 2020 年退休。科特是一位才華橫溢的金融專業人士，擁有非凡的職業生涯。我個人非常感謝他的務實領導以及他在產品組合轉型中發揮的重要作用，這是我們成為領先的特種材料公司的策略的基礎要素。

I'd also like to share that I have every confidence in Curt's successor, Willie McLain. Willie has been a key player at Eastman for 20 years and has worked closely with Curt as part of our long-term succession planning process. He's a proven experienced leader with deep knowledge of Eastman's financial organization, businesses and capital markets, which will be integral as we continue the company's transformation.

我還想說，我對 Curt 的繼任者 Willie McLain 充滿信心。威利 (Willie) 已在伊士曼 (Eastman) 擔任重要職務 20 年，並作為我們長期繼任計劃流程的一部分與科特 (Curt) 密切合作。他是一位經驗豐富的領導者，對伊士曼的財務組織、業務和資本市場有著深入的了解，這對我們繼續進行公司轉型至關重要。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Curt to review some financial results, his final quarterly review as he closes this chapter and opens another.

就這樣，我將把電話交給 Curt 來審查一些財務結果，這是他結束這一章並開啟另一章時的最後一次季度審查。

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. First of all, I appreciate the kind words, Mark, and I want to thank you, the Board and all men and women at Eastman for allowing me to serve as the CFO since 2008. It has been a real honor.

謝謝，馬克，大家早安。首先，馬克，我非常感謝您的善意言辭，同時，我也要感謝您、董事會以及伊士曼的所有員工，感謝你們允許我自 2008 年以來擔任首席財務官。這真是一種榮幸。

I'd also like to reiterate that Willie is absolutely the right CFO to take Eastman forward and is supported by a very talented and motivated team in Eastman. Now we are in good hands.

我還想重申，威利絕對是帶領伊士曼前進的合適人選，並且得到了伊士曼一支非常有才華和積極進取的團隊的支持。現在我們處於良好的照顧之下。

With that said, let me start on Slide 4. For the full year, revenue, EBIT and EPS all declined as global growth decelerated and trade disputes created uncertainty for Eastman and our customers. At a corporate level, lower volumes due to destocking and a reduced primary demand, alongside a strong dollar, contributed the most to the year-over-year decline in earnings. The lower volume resulted in lower utilization rates. Variable margin spreads were flat at a corporate level for the year. Despite a difficult economic environment, we delivered strong growth across many of our innovative products, particularly in Advanced Materials.

話雖如此，讓我從第 4 張投影片開始。由於全球經濟成長放緩以及貿易爭端為伊士曼和我們的客戶帶來不確定性，全年收入、息稅前利潤和每股盈餘均出現下降。從企業層級來看，去庫存化和初級需求減少導致的產量下降，以及美元走強，是導致獲利年減的主要原因。產量較低導致利用率較低。全年公司層級的浮動保證金利差持平。儘管經濟環境艱難，我們的許多創新產品，特別是先進材料產品仍實現了強勁成長。

Similar with the trends for the full year, fourth quarter results were impacted by a slowdown in the global economy on top of normal seasonality. Revenue decreased mostly due to lower selling prices as a result of lower raw material prices. EBIT increased slightly due to lower raw material costs and improved product mix. In an environment like we are in now, we remain focused on what we can control, closing new business revenue, reducing costs and generating strong free cash flow.

與全年趨勢類似，第四季業績除了受到正常季節性因素的影響外，還受到全球經濟放緩的影響。收入下降主要是由於原物料價格下降導致銷售價格下降。由於原料成本降低和產品結構改善，息稅前利潤略有增加。在我們現在所處的環境中，我們仍然專注於我們能夠控制的事情，實現新業務收入，降低成本並產生強勁的自由現金流。

Moving now to segment results and starting with Advanced Materials. Considering the business environment in 2019, full year performance was solid with EBIT growing over 3%. While Advanced Materials had challenges in the early part of the 2019, once destocking had largely played out in the supply chain between the U.S. and China, volumes returned to a more normal level, and the segment's innovation programs drove growth. The results in Advanced Materials are a great example of the importance of innovation. The core business is not immune to the challenges with global trade uncertainty and transportation, but premium products provided resilience. We were also able to realize spread expansion in the second half as lower-cost raws flowed through and we remained disciplined on pricing.

現在轉向細分結果並從先進材料開始。考慮到 2019 年的商業環境，全年業績穩健，息稅前利潤成長超過 3%。儘管先進材料部門在 2019 年初面臨挑戰，但隨著美國和中國之間的供應鏈基本上去庫存化，產量恢復到更正常的水平，該部門的創新計劃推動了成長。《先進材料》的成果很好地體現了創新的重要性。核心業務無法免受全球貿易不確定性和運輸挑戰的影響，但優質產品提供了韌性。隨著低成本原料的流入以及我們在定價方面保持紀律，我們也能夠在下半年實現價差擴大。

Looking at the fourth quarter, revenue and EBIT increased due to strong volume and more favorable product mix. Ahead in 2020, we expect to deliver another year of EBIT growth in this segment as we benefit from both continued progress growing new business revenue from innovation and a smaller headwind on foreign currency exchange rates. As a result, we expect Advanced Materials' EBIT to be up mid-single digits in 2020.

縱觀第四季度，由於銷售強勁和產品組合更有利，收入和息稅前利潤均增加。展望 2020 年，我們預計該部門將再次實現息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 成長，因為我們受益於創新帶來的新業務收入持續成長以及外匯匯率阻力較小。因此，我們預計先進材料公司的息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 在 2020 年將成長中等個位數。

Now moving to Additives & Functional Products on Slide 6. Unlike Advanced Materials, AFP was impacted more gradually with destocking picking up through 2019 while primary demand in many of the geographies we serve was decelerating, particularly in China and Europe. I'm encouraged that 2/3 of AFP delivered solid results in this environment, including strong growth in Care Chemicals, water treatment and specialty fluids as well as spread expansion across the portfolio. We also had some challenges in this part of the segment, including slow demand in China for autos and disruptions in the ag market in China. All in, the bulk of AFP's businesses are performing how a specialty business should perform in this environment.

現在轉到幻燈片 6 上的添加劑和功能產品。與先進材料不同，AFP 受到的影響更為緩慢，2019 年去庫存化逐漸增加，而我們服務的許多地區的主要需求正在減速，尤其是在中國和歐洲。我很高興看到 AFP 的 2/3 在這種環境下取得了穩健的業績，包括護理化學品、水處理和特種液體的強勁增長以及整個產品組合的擴張。我們在這一領域也遇到了一些挑戰，包括中國汽車需求放緩以及中國農業市場中斷。總而言之，AFP 的大部分業務都表現出專業業務在這種環境下應有的表現。

The remaining 1/3 of the business, adhesives, tires and formic acid that we previously called out in our third quarter call, contributed the significant majority of the earnings decline for the year. We are continuing to actively work on solutions for this part of the segment.

我們之前在第三季電話會議上提到的剩餘 1/3 業務，即黏合劑、輪胎和甲酸，是今年獲利下降的主要原因。我們正在繼續積極致力於解決這一部分問題。

Looking ahead to 2020, we expect solid growth in the 2/3, offset by continued challenges in the 1/3 impacting both spreads and volumes. Putting it all together, we expect AFP's EBIT to be flat to slightly down compared to 2019.

展望 2020 年，我們預期 2/3 市場將穩健成長，但 1/3 市場仍將面臨挑戰，利差和交易量將受到影響。綜合考慮所有因素，我們預計法新社的息稅前利潤將與 2019 年持平或略有下降。

Turning now to Slide 7 in Chemical Intermediates. For the full year and the fourth quarter, sales revenue decreased for the reasons summarized on the slide. In the fourth quarter, EBIT decreased mostly due to increased planned shutdown costs. As 2019 progressed and industry activity slowed, spreads in many of our derivative product lines declined, but we now think we're seeing signs of stabilization at this point. We expect to carry the lower level of spreads in the back half of 2019 into 2020, which will be a headwind in the first half of the year. But we also expect to see higher volumes in ag as North America gets back to a more normal planting season, and we're expecting to see the benefits of our cost management programs and other stabilizing actions. All in, we think Chemical Intermediates' EBIT in 2020 will be lower than 2019.

現在轉到化學中間體中的第 7 張投影片。全年和第四季的銷售收入因幻燈片中總結的原因而下降。第四季度，息稅前利潤下降主要是因為計畫停工成本增加。隨著 2019 年的進展和行業活動的放緩，我們許多衍生產品線的利差有所下降，但我們現在認為看到了穩定的跡象。我們預計 2019 年下半年的較低利差水準將延續到 2020 年，這將成為上半年的阻力。但隨著北美恢復到更正常的種植季節，我們也預計農業產量將會增加，我們預計成本管理計畫和其他穩定行動將帶來效益。整體而言，我們認為化學中間體 2020 年的息稅前利潤將低於 2019 年。

Finishing up the segment reviews with Fibers on Slide 8. Revenue and EBIT declined in full year 2019 due to general market decline for acetate tow and some chunkiness related to customer volume patterns. Fourth quarter EBIT was up due to increased tow volumes in China. In the textiles market, we continue to make progress with our key initiatives, including growth in womenswear, which was up approximately 20% this year. This progress was offset by softness in the global market for more traditional textile applications. In 2020, we expect acetate tow to be down slightly, consistent with the market. For textiles, we expect continued strong growth in key end markets, such as womenswear, to be offset by a softer overall textile market, impacting our more traditional textile applications. Putting it together, we expect Fiber segment EBIT in 2020 to be slightly lower than 2019, consistent with the market.

使用幻燈片 8 上的纖維部分完成分部回顧。由於醋酸絲束市場整體下滑以及與顧客數量模式相關的一些粗獷因素，2019 年全年收入和息稅前利潤均有所下降。由於中國拖車銷量增加，第四季息稅前利潤上升。在紡織品市場，我們繼續透過關鍵舉措取得進展，其中女裝銷量今年成長了約 20%。但這項進步被全球傳統紡織應用市場的疲軟所抵消。2020年，我們預期醋酸絲束價格將略為下降，與市場走勢一致。對於紡織品，我們預計女裝等主要終端市場的持續強勁成長將被整體紡織品市場的疲軟所抵消，從而影響我們更傳統的紡織品應用。綜合來看，我們預期 2020 年光纖部門息稅前利潤將略低於 2019 年，與市場狀況一致。

I'll finish with some financial highlights on Slide 9. Free cash flow was strong at almost $1.1 billion, sustaining the record level we achieved in 2018, another great result delivered by a variety of B.A. teams across Eastman. We also continued our track record of returning cash to owners and reducing debt, which both create value for our stockholders. Reducing debt will remain a top priority in 2020, and we expect to delever greater than $400 million this upcoming year, further improving the strength of our balance sheet.

最後，我將在第 9 張投影片中介紹一些財務亮點。自由現金流強勁，接近 11 億美元，維持了我們在 2018 年實現的創紀錄水平，這是伊士曼各個 B.A. 團隊取得的又一出色成果。我們也延續了向股東返還現金和減少債務的良好記錄，這兩項措施都為我們的股東創造了價值。減少債務仍將是 2020 年的首要任務，我們預計今年的去槓桿將超過 4 億美元，從而進一步增強我們的資產負債表實力。

Our tax rate was approximately 15.5% for the full year, and I expect the 2020 tax rate to be similar to 2019 in that 15% to 16% range.

我們全年的稅率約為 15.5%，我預計 2020 年的稅率將與 2019 年相似，在 15% 至 16% 的範圍內。

Capital expenditures for the year are expected to be $450 million to $475 million in 2020. The main driver behind the planned increase in capital spending is associated with site tenant projects, which will be reimbursed across other lines of the cash flow statement over a number of periods.

預計2020年全年資本支出為4.5億至4.75億美元。計劃增加資本支出的主要驅動力與場地租戶項目有關，這些項目將在多個期間透過現金流量表的其他項目得到補償。

Finally, don't miss the modeling slide in the appendix as well as our manufacturing shutdown scheduled for this year.

最後，不要錯過附錄中的建模幻燈片以及我們計劃於今年進行的製造停工。

One final comment on the appendix. In 2020, we project that depreciation and amortization will decline approximately $50 million as part of the Taminco acquisition, Eastman marked-to-market an advantaged methanol contract and certain other assets with a 5-year life. With the expiration of this advantaged contract at the end of 2019, market-based methanol purchases in 2020 will substantially offset the $30 million reduced amortization of the Taminco methanol contract.

關於附錄的最後一則評論。2020 年，我們預計折舊和攤銷將下降約 5,000 萬美元，這得益於對 Taminco 的收購、伊士曼按市價計價的優惠甲醇合約以及某些其他使用壽命為 5 年的資產。隨著該優惠合約於 2019 年底到期，2020 年基於市場的甲醇採購將大幅抵消 Taminco 甲醇合約減少的 3,000 萬美元攤銷。

With that, I'll turn it back to Mark.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給馬克。

Thanks, Curt. Now turning to our 2020 outlook on Slide 10.

謝謝，Curt。現在轉到第 10 張投影片上的 2020 年展望。

As we all know, we are currently in a dynamic and uncertain macro environment. Despite this uncertainty, we needed to make a series of assumptions for our outlook.

眾所周知，我們目前正處於一個動態且不確定的宏觀環境中。儘管存在這種不確定性，我們仍需要對我們的前景做出一系列假設。

First, we expect modest volume growth and mix improvement from 3 factors. We're assuming global industrial production growth to be similar to '19.

首先，我們預期銷售量將溫和成長，產品組合將因三個因素而改善。我們假設全球工業生產成長與 2019 年相似。

Second, we are expecting that destocking is predominantly behind us, although there may be some pockets where there's more to go such as North American ag.

其次，我們預期去庫存化進程基本上已經結束，不過北美農業等一些領域可能還有進一步去庫存的空間。

Third, we expect to create our own growth through market development and innovation.

第三，我們期望透過市場開拓和創新來創造自身的成長。

In 2020, we have a number of additional items that are tailwinds. We expect our operating costs will be lower by $20 million to $40 million for the year, reflecting continued progress on productivity. And this is above offsetting normal inflation, which is between $75 million and $100 million annually. We expect pension costs will be lower by about $25 million. And we also expect lower depreciation expense to be about a $20 million net benefit to EBIT, as Curt mentioned in his remarks. All in, these tailwinds total approximately $75 million.

2020 年，我們還有許多其他有利因素。我們預計今年的營運成本將降低 2,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元，這反映了生產力的持續進步。這也高於抵消正常通貨膨脹的水平，即每年 7,500 萬美元至 1 億美元。我們預計退休金成本將降低約 2500 萬美元。正如 Curt 在評論中提到的那樣，我們還預計較低的折舊費用將為 EBIT 帶來約 2000 萬美元的淨收益。所有這些順風因素總計約為 7,500 萬美元。

And we have a few headwinds for the year, such as higher variable comp and increased benefit comps as we return to target levels and a somewhat stronger U.S. dollar compared to the euro with an assumption the exchange rate averages $1.10 for the year. Together with a few other small items, we expect a headwind of $85 million.

今年我們面臨一些不利因素，例如隨著我們回歸目標水平，浮動薪資和福利薪資將會增加，並假設全年匯率平均為 1.10 美元，美元兌歐元略有走強。加上其他一些小項目，我們預計逆風將達到 8500 萬美元。

In addition, we're expecting spreads to be lower primarily in Chemical Intermediates and the 1/3 of AFP. This reflects the fact that these spreads in 2019 declined through the year, especially as the trade war escalated, and therefore, we entered this year at a low level relative to the first half of '19.

此外，我們預計價差將主要在化學中間體和 AFP 的 1/3 部分降低。這反映出 2019 年利差全年都在下降，尤其是隨著貿易戰升級，因此，與 2019 年上半年相比，今年的利差處於較低水準。

Lastly, you should expect that we continue to be disciplined as we allocate capital, including delevering, share repurchases and bolt-on acquisitions where they make sense.

最後，您應該期望我們在分配資本時繼續保持紀律，包括去槓桿、股票回購和合理的附加收購。

Putting this all together, we expect our 2020 EPS will be between $7.20 and $7.60, with the first quarter EPS coming in flat to slightly down from the year-ago quarter. We also expect our full year free cash flow to be between $1 billion and $1.1 billion. Of course, there are macroeconomic factors that can move us above or below this range. As we get through this short-term uncertainty, we expect we'll have a more informed view in April and will adjust as necessary at that time.

綜合以上所有因素，我們預計 2020 年每股收益將在 7.20 美元至 7.60 美元之間，第一季每股收益將與去年同期持平或略有下降。我們也預計全年自由現金流將在 10 億美元至 11 億美元之間。當然，宏觀經濟因素也可能導致我們超出或低於這個範圍。隨著我們度過這個短期不確定性，我們預計我們將在四月有更明智的看法，並將在那時根據需要進行調整。

Next, I'm going to discuss actions we're taking to increase performance in 2020 and for the next 3 years.

接下來，我將討論我們為提高 2020 年及未來 3 年的績效所採取的行動。

First, on Slide 11. New business revenue from innovation. For those that follow Eastman, this won't be a new concept as we make great progress. Key to our success has been our innovation-driven growth model and particularly the investment we've made in application development capability. In 2017, our new business revenue was approximately $300 million. By '19, we had increased it to $400 million. And in '20, we expect new business revenue to approach $500 million. The segment leading the way is Advanced Materials, which has numerous examples of innovative products driving new business revenues. They include Tritan copolyester, Saflex acoustic interlayers, heads-up display interlayers and paint protection films. And with our 2 new commercial chemical recycling technologies, we have enhanced our offer in specialty plastics for several applications such as cosmetics, ophthalmics, toys and more. And while Advanced materials has made the most progress, Additives & Functional Products is poised to make significant contribution in the coming years. We're getting commercial orders in a large number of innovation platforms, including Tetrashield for BPA non-intent food packaging and auto coatings, specialty ketones for sustainable coating solutions, next-generation Crystex for tires, and we have several new platforms we'll discuss with you throughout the year.

首先，在第 11 張投影片上。源自創新的新業務收入。對於那些關注伊士曼的人來說，這並不是一個新概念，因為我們已經取得了巨大的進步。我們成功的關鍵在於我們的創新驅動型成長模式，特別是我們在應用程式開發能力方面的投資。2017年，我們的新業務收入約為3億美元。到 19 年，我們已將其增加到 4 億美元。到2020年，我們預計新業務收入將接近5億美元。處於領先地位的領域是先進材料，該領域擁有許多創新產品推動新業務收入的例子。它們包括 Tritan 共聚酯、Saflex 聲學夾層、平視顯示器夾層和油漆保護膜。憑藉我們的兩種新型商業化學回收技術，我們增強了針對化妝品、眼科、玩具等多種應用的特殊塑膠供應。雖然先進材料取得了最大的進步，但添加劑和功能產品將在未來幾年做出重大貢獻。我們正在大量創新平台上獲得商業訂單，包括用於 BPA 非意圖食品包裝和汽車塗料的 Tetrashield、用於可持續塗料解決方案的特種酮、用於輪胎的下一代 Crystex，並且我們還有幾個新平台將在全年與您討論。

Lastly I'd add that we have made great progress with Naia cellulosic yarn in the textiles markets, where we're particularly excited about our growth in womenswear. The offering of a bio-based yarn that uses cellulosics from certified sustainably managed forests is compelling in a market where sustainability is a driving consumer behavior. And now with our circular economy technology, we will commercialize Naia with recycled content, which makes the consumer even more excited and more compelled to buy our product.

最後我想補充一點，我們在紡織品市場上的 Naia 纖維素紗線取得了巨大進展，我們對女裝市場的成長尤其感到興奮。在永續性是驅動消費者行為的市場中，使用經過認證的永續管理森林的纖維素製成的生物基紗線具有很強的吸引力。現在，憑藉我們的循環經濟技術，我們將利用回收材料對 Naia 進行商業化，這將使消費者更加興奮並更願意購買我們的產品。

Overall, we've made outstanding progress in driving new business revenue. This has made our results more resilient in the current difficult environment. And it positions us for strong growth as the economy rebounds.

總體而言，我們在推動新業務收入方面取得了顯著進展。這使得我們的業績在當前困難的環境下更具韌性。隨著經濟反彈，這將使我們實現強勁成長。

The next area I'll cover is on Slide 12, and it's about our investments in building an even more capable and efficient organization to execute our strategy.

我將在第 12 張投影片中介紹下一個領域，即我們為建立一個更有能力、更有效率的組織來執行我們的策略而進行的投資。

We're making great progress in our commercial capability. We implemented an improved business operating model that is dramatically enhancing our decision-making to deliver growth and manage costs. We're also seeing significant improvement with our CRM investments and are making several other digital investments. And application development investments are helping accelerate our commercialization rate of our innovation programs.

我們的商業能力正在取得巨大進步。我們實施了改進的業務運營模式，大大增強了我們實現成長和管理成本的決策能力。我們的 CRM 投資也取得了顯著進展，並且正在進行其他幾項數位投資。應用程式開發投資正在幫助加快我們的創新項目商業化速度。

At the same time, we're also driving efficiency in how we offset inflation and these investment costs. As you can see with our graph, we are a disciplined operator in how we manage our costs relative to our peers, especially with this level of innovation efforts in our portfolio. And in these uncertain times, we're going to step up productivity significantly, as I mentioned on the third quarter call. We have developed a program to reduce our cost structure, net of inflation, by greater than $100 million. And as I said, we will get $20 million to $40 million of it in 2020.

同時，我們也在提高抵銷通貨膨脹和投資成本的效率。從我們的圖表中可以看出，與同行相比，我們在成本管理方面是一個嚴謹的運營商，尤其是我們的投資組合中存在這種程度的創新努力。正如我在第三季電話會議上提到的那樣，在這個不確定的時期，我們將大幅提高生產力。我們制定了一項計劃，將我們的成本結構（扣除通貨膨脹因素）降低 1 億多美元。正如我所說，我們將在 2020 年獲得 2000 萬至 4000 萬美元。

We'll achieve these results in 3 areas. First, site optimization will allow us to adjust our footprint to these new market conditions. One example is our Singapore plant that makes olefins. We've made the difficult decision to not renew our raw material supply contract by the end of 2020, giving us options to realize $25 million of benefits. We also have a few other sites under consideration in the 1/3 of AFP.

我們將從三個方面實現這些成果。首先，網站優化將使我們能夠根據新的市場條件調整我們的足跡。我們的新加坡烯烴生產工廠就是一個例子。我們做出了一個艱難的決定，到 2020 年底不再續簽原材料供應合同，這給了我們實現 2500 萬美元收益的選擇。我們也正在考慮 AFP 三分之一範圍內的其他幾個站點。

Second, we have digital and other productivity investments. We have a wide range of productivity initiatives across maintenance, energy efficiency, improving yield and business process improvements.

第二，我們在數位和其他生產力方面進行投資。我們在維護、能源效率、提高產量和業務流程改善等方面採取了廣泛的生產力措施。

Third, we're driving supply chain optimization as we look at opportunities across the globe to adjust to changes in customer and geographic mix. In today's world, we must build our capability, continue to improve our safety performance and, at the same time, improve our cost structure to win.

第三，我們正在推動供應鏈優化，同時尋找全球範圍內的機會來適應客戶和地理結構的變化。在當今世界，我們必須增強我們的能力，繼續提高我們的安全性能，同時改善我們的成本結構才能獲勝。

On Slide 13, in addition to building an even more capable and efficient organization, there are additional actions we are taking to improve our performance. First, better leveraging our sites could yield $30 million to $60 million in recurring EBIT by the end of 3 years. For example, we recently welcomed 2 new strategic tenants to our site in Texas City: Gulf Coast Ammonia and Air Products. At our site in St. Gabriel, Louisiana, we are building a new asset leveraging integration in alkylamines to support Corteva's innovative growth of their Enlist system. And we have several additional opportunities in development.

在第 13 張投影片上，除了建立一個更有能力、更有效率的組織之外，我們還採取了其他措施來提高我們的績效。首先，更好地利用我們的網站可以在 3 年內產生 3000 萬至 6000 萬美元的經常性息稅前利潤。例如，我們最近在德州城的工廠迎來了兩家新的策略租戶：墨西哥灣沿岸氨公司和空氣產品公司。在我們位於聖路易斯的站點。路易斯安那州加布里埃爾，我們正在利用烷基胺的整合來建立一項新資產，以支持 Corteva 對其 Enlist 系統的創新成長。我們還有幾個額外的發展機會。

Second, we also see an opportunity to step up our level of licensing that could contribute another $25 million to $50 million in EBIT to our results in the next 3 years. Eastman has a rich portfolio of innovative technologies that have significant value, such as olefins and acetyls, and a strong history of licensing. We expect to step up this value creation with a partnership we have had with JM Davy Technologies, which is expected to create a meaningful benefit in 2020. We developed a new mono ethylene glycol technology that could use a variety of raw materials, including coal, natural gas or biomass, unlike the majority of the world's MEG, which is currently made from ethylene. This is the first of a number of agreements in the works.

其次，我們也看到了提高許可水準的機會，這可能會在未來 3 年內為我們的業績貢獻另外 2,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元的息稅前利潤。伊士曼擁有豐富的具有重大價值的創新技術組合，例如烯烴和乙醯基，以及強大的許可歷史。我們希望透過與 JM Davy Technologies 建立的合作夥伴關係來加強這一價值創造，並有望在 2020 年創造可觀的效益。我們開發了一種新的單乙二醇技術，該技術可以使用多種原料，包括煤、天然氣或生物質，而目前世界上大多數的乙二醇都是由乙烯製成的。這是正在醞釀的一系列協議中的第一份。

Lastly, as we discussed in October on our third quarter call, we remain fully committed to taking actions in the 1/3 of AFP that has demonstrated more volatility than we expected in this challenging environment. These actions could be restructuring partnerships or potential divestment. We're actively looking at all these options, recognizing the need to be sensitive to current market conditions. These actions, better leveraging our sites, stepping up licensing and portfolio optimization, will continue to create value for Eastman and are an important contributor to our success in 2020 and for the next few years.

最後，正如我們在 10 月第三季電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們仍然完全致力於對 AFP 的 1/3 採取行動，因為在這種充滿挑戰的環境中，這些行動表現出的波動性超出了我們的預期。這些行動可能是重組合作關係或潛在的撤資。我們正在積極研究所有這些選擇，並認識到需要對當前的市場狀況保持敏感。這些措施將更能利用我們的基地，加強授權和產品組合優化，將繼續為伊士曼創造價值，也是我們在2020年及未來幾年取得成功的重要因素。

Finally on Slide 14, let me bring everything together. I just shared with you our multiyear plan of actions we will take to improve performance in the coming years and win. Yet none of this happens without the dedication and persistence of the people of Eastman, who continue to rise to the occasion and prove every day that they're a get-it-done team and bring to life our commitment of enhancing the quality of life in a material way. When the macroeconomic challenges reverse, and we know they will, it's our innovative-driven growth model that will allow us to be poised to create even more of our own growth through innovation and leadership in specialty markets. In the meantime, big picture, we will continue to focus on what we can control and remain committed to long-term, attractive earnings growth and sustainable value creation for our owners and for all of our stakeholders.

最後，在第 14 張投影片上，讓我把所有內容匯總在一起。我剛剛與大家分享了我們將採取的多年行動計劃，以提高未來幾年的業績並取得勝利。然而，如果沒有伊士曼員工的奉獻和堅持，這一切都不會實現，他們不斷迎接挑戰，每天都證明他們是一支能夠完成任務的團隊，並兌現了我們以物質方式提高生活品質的承諾。當宏觀經濟挑戰逆轉時（我們知道這種情況會發生），我們的創新驅動型成長模式將使我們能夠透過在專業市場的創新和領導地位創造更多的自身成長。同時，從總體來看，我們將繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情，並繼續致力於為我們的所有者和所有利益相關者實現長期、有吸引力的盈利增長和可持續的價值創造。

With that, I'll turn it back to Greg.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給格雷格。

All right. Thanks, Mark. As usual, we've got a lot of people on the line this morning, and we'd like to get to as many questions as possible. (Operator Instructions)

好的。謝謝，馬克。像往常一樣，今天早上有很多人在線，我們希望盡可能多地回答他們的問題。（操作員指示）

With that, Diana, we are ready for questions.

戴安娜，我們已經準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）現在我們將回答摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews 提出的第一個問題。

Mark, maybe you could just talk about the volume growth in Advanced Materials, which continues to be impressive on an absolute and relative basis versus what we're hearing elsewhere. Can you maybe just talk about how inflated or how much of a moat you have around that volume? We're hearing sort of generically a pickup in competitive behavior and decreases in pricing and pricing still holding up well. So how are you staying so differentiated there in an obviously difficult environment?

馬克，也許你可以談談先進材料業務的銷售成長情況，與我們在其他地方聽到的相比，它在絕對值和相對值上仍然令人印象深刻。您能否談談該數量的膨脹程度或護城河有多大？我們聽到的普遍聲音是競爭行為有所回升，價格有所下降，而且價格仍然保持良好。那麼，在如此困難的環境下，你們是如何保持差異化的呢？

Thanks, Vince. Yes, great question, and it's really the heart of the whole company strategy around having an innovation-driven growth model as the way you create your own growth in tough environments as well as defend your margins. Across the entire segment, we've been investing in innovation, and 2019 is sort of our decade of continued earnings growth through it.

謝謝，文斯。是的，問得好，這確實是整個公司策略的核心，即擁有一個創新驅動的成長模式，這是您在艱難的環境中創造自身成長並捍衛利潤的方式。在整個領域，我們一直在投資創新，2019 年可以說是我們獲利持續成長的十年。

The differentiation really comes from innovating differentiated and sustainable products that are important to the marketplace. So our Tritan success, which is a patented proprietary product being the only solution that's BPA free for polycarbonate replacement, continues to have tremendous success in housewares and durables and now growing in medical. And that's just a story that continues to deliver performance.

差異化實際上來自於對市場重要的差異化和永續性產品的創新。因此，我們的 Tritan 取得了成功，它是一種獲得專利的專有產品，是唯一不含 BPA 的聚碳酸酯替代品，在家庭用品和耐用品領域繼續取得巨大成功，現在在醫療領域也正在不斷發展。這只是一個繼續展現業績的故事。

It's the same thing with heads-up display interlayers and acoustic interlayers, where you can significantly enhance the driver experience and enable light-weighting in a car and where we have not just this generation but are now launching the next generation of even better HUD and acoustic, as we speak, in this year to continue to drive differentiation and growth in that space.

平視顯示器夾層和聲學夾層也是一樣的，可以顯著提升駕駛體驗，實現汽車輕量化，我們不僅有這一代產品，而且現在我們正推出下一代更好的 HUD 和聲學產品，正如我們所說，在今年繼續推動該領域的差異化和增長。

Same thing with paint protection films, where we've launched the best product in the marketplace last year; rolled out new software, where we have the best cutting software support for the dealers. So it's always about enhancing and developing new features and growing these businesses at much higher rates than the underlying market.

油漆保護膜也是如此，我們去年在市場上推出了最好的產品；推出了新軟體，我們為經銷商提供最好的切割軟體支援。因此，我們始終致力於增強和開發新功能，並以遠高於基礎市場的速度發展這些業務。

This segment has a lot of consumer discretionary exposure, whether it's autos or appliances or electronics, that the underlying markets are down, and we felt that some in our core interlayers or some of the core copolyesters. But it's that innovation that allows you to continue to grow and why our model works so well.

這一領域涉及大量非必需消費品，無論是汽車、家電或電子產品，其基礎市場都在下滑，我們認為我們的核心夾層或一些核心共聚酯也受到了影響。但正是這種創新讓您能夠持續成長，也是我們的模式如此有效的原因。

Okay. And as a follow-up, can I just ask you -- I believe you said you plan on paying down more debt this year versus last year with a similar amount of free cash flow. So I'm just curious what's driving that decision versus share repurchases. And congrats to Curt.

好的。作為後續問題，我可以問您一下嗎——我相信您說過，您計劃今年用類似數量的自由現金流償還比去年更多的債務。所以我只是好奇是什麼促使了這個決定而不是股票回購。並祝賀 Curt。

Thanks, Vince, for the question and the comment as well. And so as you know, we are always disciplined with our capital allocation across those buckets of share repurchases, bolt-on acquisitions and the paydown of debt, and we consider all 3 of them as very viable ways to create value for our stockholders.

謝謝文斯提出的問題和評論。如您所知，我們在股票回購、附加收購和債務償還等方面始終嚴格進行資本配置，我們認為這三種方式都是為股東創造價值的非常可行的方式。

So as we finish 2019, we ended up shifting our capital allocation of that excess cash towards more further delevering as a priority. And as Mark mentioned, that's going to continue in 2020. So the result was that we used $370 million of our free cash flow for paydown versus the original $300 million that we promised.

因此，在 2019 年結束時，我們最終將過剩現金的資本配置轉向進一步去槓桿，並以此作為優先事項。正如馬克所提到的，這種情況將在 2020 年繼續下去。因此，結果是我們使用了 3.7 億美元的自由現金流來償還債務，而不是最初承諾的 3 億美元。

So what we're looking at now for -- if you look at 2020, that kind of discipline is going to be maintained. So we're kind of looking at -- if you think about that $1 billion to $1.1 billion, let's just take the midpoint of $1.050 billion, so $350 million of it will go kind of towards that increasing dividend that we're very proud of; greater than $400 million will be used to reduce debt at a minimum; and then, we'll repurchase shares to offset dilution, which is roughly $50 million. So that remaining $200 million to $300 million of free cash flow is going to be applied for acquisitions, additional share repurchases or further debt paydown. And really, that's going to depend how the macroenvironment plays out. And we'll probably kind of hold that extra choices until the second half of this year just so we have more time to see how it plays out.

所以我們現在要考慮的是──如果你展望 2020 年，這種紀律將會得到維持。所以我們在考慮——如果你考慮這 10 億美元到 11 億美元，我們就取 10.5 億美元的中間值，那麼其中的 3.5 億美元將用於增加我們引以為豪的股息；超過 4 億美元將至少用於減少債務；然後，我們將回購股票以抵消稀釋，大約 5000 萬美元。因此，剩餘的 2 億至 3 億美元自由現金流將用於收購、額外股票回購或進一步償還債務。事實上，這將取決於宏觀環境如何發揮作用。我們可能會將這些額外的選擇保留到今年下半年，以便我們有更多的時間來觀察其結果。

And we will now take our next question -- and next question comes from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

我們現在來回答下一個問題──下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, on the 1/3 of AFP that you've identified for a potential action here, have you -- how much more clarity do you have on the potential options today than you did 3 months ago? And are outright sales possible or even likely for some of these businesses?

馬克，關於您確定的可能採取的行動的 1/3 AFP，與 3 個月前相比，您對今天的潛在選擇有多清晰的認識？對於其中一些企業來說，直接出售是否可能，甚至有可能？

Thanks, David. So we are looking at all the options. This environment requires us to be thoughtful about what options make sense. Certainly, we're looking at everything we can do on the restructuring front and driving both innovation as well as how to optimize our cost structure in this environment. And then we're looking at partnering and divestment options as things we consider. A divestment is certainly in the consideration set, but we've got to make sure we don't overreact to short-term challenges in the marketplace and make sure we understand the impact of the restructuring activities for understanding both the quality of these businesses as well as how we'd position them to potential new owners. So we're going to keep driving it forward, and we'll update you when we have more clarity.

謝謝，大衛。因此我們正在考慮所有的選擇。這種環境要求我們認真考慮哪些選擇是合理的。當然，我們正在研究重組方面可以做的一切，推動創新以及如何在這種環境下優化我們的成本結構。然後，我們正在考慮合作和撤資的選擇。撤資肯定是在考慮範圍內的，但我們必須確保我們不會對市場上的短期挑戰反應過度，並確保我們了解重組活動的影響，以了解這些業務的品質以及我們如何將它們定位給潛在的新主人。因此，我們將繼續推動此事，並在獲得更清晰的資訊後向大家通報。

And Mark, just on -- in the businesses that saw destocking over the last 3 to 5 quarters, et cetera, is all that, do you think, done? And where do we stand with supply chains and inventory levels heading into 2020 across your businesses? Any customers?

馬克，就過去 3 到 5 個季度中去庫存的企業而言，您認為這一切都完成了嗎？2020 年，你們各企業的供應鏈和庫存水準如何？有客戶嗎？

Yes. I'd say across the entire company, in most places, I think we've seen channels destock. In Advanced Materials, I think the destocking has run its course and even maybe a little bit of stabilization in inventory management in a few of those businesses.

是的。我想說，在整個公司，在大多數地方，我認為我們已經看到渠道去庫存了。在先進材料領域，我認為去庫存化已經完成，其中一些企業的庫存管理甚至可能已經趨於穩定。

In AFP, I'd say it's mostly destocked in the channels, and we're more looking at where primary demand goes at this point. As I mentioned, ag and functional amines and CI is one place where you could see some additional destocking here in the first quarter. We do believe in net volume growth for that business, assuming a normal weather pattern here in North America, but it may not be as dramatic because they still have a bit of inventory to work off. But I would say in North America, where the economy has been stronger, there are probably people sitting on a bit more inventory than where Asian and European customers are. So there's always a risk if the U.S. economy slows down, you could see a bit of destocking there. And so we'll just have to see how it plays out. But I do think, net-net, the vast majority of the destocking is behind us and that lack of it will provide some volume growth this year versus last year, assuming similar economic growth between the 2 years.

在法新社，我想說主要是通路中的庫存減少，我們現在更專注的是主要需求的去向。正如我所提到的，農業和功能胺以及CI是第一季可以看到額外去庫存的領域之一。假設北美的天氣狀況正常，我們確實相信該業務的淨銷量會成長，但成長幅度可能不會那麼大，因為他們仍有一些庫存需要處理。但我想說，在經濟更強勁的北美，人們持有的庫存可能比亞洲和歐洲客戶多一些。因此，如果美國經濟放緩，風險總是存在的，你可能會看到一些去庫存現象。因此我們只需看看結果如何。但我確實認為，總體而言，絕大多數去庫存過程已經過去，假設兩年間的經濟成長相似，那麼去庫存的缺失將使今年的產量比去年有所增長。

We'll now take our next question from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

我們現在來回答花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar 提出的下一個問題。

Yes. First of all, Curt, congratulations on your retirement.

是的。首先，Curt，恭喜你退休。

Thank you, P.J.

謝謝你，P.J.

And congrats to Eastman as well for your centennial year. I know it's not easy to survive for 100 years through all the depressions and wars and all that, so congratulations.

同時也祝賀伊士曼百年華誕。我知道在經歷了大蕭條、戰爭等諸多困難之後還能生存 100 年並不容易，所以恭喜你。

Thank you. We're proud of it.

謝謝。我們對此感到自豪。

So a question on some of Taminco's assets. Care Chemicals, I think they have a lot of pass-through pricing. Feed additives, I know last quarter you had mentioned about Asian swine flu. So can you just update on some of those intermediate products?

我對 Taminco 的一些資產存有疑問。護理化學品，我認為他們有很多轉嫁定價。飼料添加劑，我知道上個季度您提到過亞洲豬流感。那麼您可以更新一些中間產品嗎？

Yes. Overall, the Taminco businesses are doing great across the portfolio with the exception of the formic acid business that we called out in the third quarter, which was a small acquisition Taminco had done just ahead of us buying Taminco. But when we look at the core alkylamine platform, which is what we're set on acquiring, Care Chemicals has delivered really strong growth and very stable margins, as you just highlighted, with cost pass-through contracts. Water treatment is having really great growth in this environment with the environmental trends out there and, again, doing quite well, stable margins. And then as you look at the functional amines going into ag, those, again, very stable margins given the market structures and the contracts we have in place. Obviously, there's demand that goes up and down with the seasons, but overall, the whole portfolio has really been great. The management team has been great. We've had phenomenal retention of the talent, and the cost structure has been well managed.

是的。總體而言，Taminco 的業務組合整體表現良好，除了我們在第三季宣布的甲酸業務之外，這是 Taminco 在我們收購 Taminco 之前的一項小規模收購。但是，當我們看看核心烷基胺平台（也就是我們要收購的平台）時，正如您剛才強調的那樣，透過成本轉嫁合同，護理化學品實現了非常強勁的增長和非常穩定的利潤率。在當前的環境趨勢下，水處理正在獲得巨大的成長，並且表現相當良好，利潤穩定。然後，當您看到功能性胺進入農業領域時，考慮到市場結構和我們現有的合同，這些胺的利潤率非常穩定。顯然，需求會隨著季節變化而起伏，但總體而言，整個產品組合確實很棒。管理團隊非常棒。我們出色地保留了人才，並且成本結構得到了良好的管理。

And then for my follow-up, I have a sort of a big-picture question. You've done some bolt-on acquisitions over the years but stayed away from any major M&As since Solutia deal. So in this slow environment, why not use low rates to get some growth? One company in Wilmington has some businesses for sale, especially in transportation. I know these are large deals, but would you have risk appetite in looking at a deal of that size?

然後，對於我的後續問題，我有一個總體性的問題。這些年來，你們進行過一些附加收購，但自從 Solutia 交易以來，沒有進行任何重大的併購。那麼在這種緩慢的環境下，為什麼不利用低利率來實現一些成長呢？威爾明頓的一家公司有一些業務要出售，尤其是交通運輸業務。我知道這些都是大交易，但您在考慮如此規模的交易時是否有風險偏好？

And so P.J., I think we've been really proud of the portfolio transformation way ahead of what people are doing in the industry now where we divested $3.5 billion in revenue of underperforming businesses and did great acquisitions with Solutia and Taminco and some bolt-ons to add $4.2 billion of great, attractive businesses. So I think we have a very impressive track record of not just doing good acquisitions at good prices, where we paid 9x EBITDA for the things that we bought and have delivered very attractive returns with the synergies that we delivered. So we're very much open to portfolio management both in and out of the portfolio. But when we look at the market conditions right now, they seem to be very expensive. And so we don't see that there's opportunities out there, especially large ones, that are financially attractive.

因此，P.J.，我認為我們對投資組合轉型感到非常自豪，這一轉型遠遠領先於目前業內的做法，我們剝離了 35 億美元表現不佳的業務收入，並與 Solutia 和 Taminco 進行了重大收購，並通過一些附加措施增加了 42 億美元的優秀、有吸引力的業務。因此，我認為我們擁有非常令人印象深刻的業績記錄，不僅以優惠的價格進行了良好的收購，我們為所收購的資產支付了 9 倍的 EBITDA，並且透過我們產生的協同效應獲得了非常可觀的回報。因此，我們對投資組合內外的投資組合管理都持非常開放的態度。但當我們觀察目前的市場狀況時，它們似乎非常昂貴。因此，我們認為那裡不存在具有財務吸引力的機會，尤其是大型機會。

More importantly, we like the portfolio that we have. And we're -- we've been focused on making sure we deliver return to our shareholders for the money that we spent on these acquisitions up through 14 and deliver growth, and I think we've done that quite well. And if you look at the 2 specialty businesses we've had before the trade war started, over $600 million of EBITDA growth from '14 to '18, 1/3 of that was acquisition, but 2/3 of it was organic growth that came from these acquisitions as well as the core Eastman businesses. So we feel good about how we can integrate acquisitions. So I'm not saying we'll never do anything, but large ones right now don't seem necessary or financially prudent.

更重要的是，我們喜歡我們現有的投資組合。我們一直致力於確保我們在 14 年收購中所花費的資金能夠為股東帶來回報並實現成長，我認為我們在這方面做得相當不錯。如果你看看我們在貿易戰開始之前擁有的兩家專業公司，從 2014 年到 2018 年，EBITDA 成長超過 6 億美元，其中 1/3 是收購，但 2/3 是來自這些收購以及核心伊士曼業務的有機成長。因此，我們對如何整合收購感到滿意。所以我並不是說我們永遠不會做任何事情，但現在大規模的行動似乎沒有必要，或者在財務上並不謹慎。

And P.J., if I could add. I'm still a traditionalist. And since Willie and I both went to the same M.B.A. school, I think it will continue. And that is, when we look at investments, whether it's acquisitions or organic growth, we look at things on an unlevered basis. So that way, we make sure we're driving good value without considering the leverage. And then once we find good opportunities and/or growth programs, we find great ways to finance it. So we'll continue to look at things in a disciplined, unlevered basis.

如果可以的話，還有 P.J.。我仍然是一個傳統主義者。而且由於威利和我都讀的是同一個 MBA 學位。學校，我想這種情況將會繼續下去。也就是說，當我們考慮投資時，無論是收購還是有機成長，我們都是從無槓桿的角度來看事物的。這樣，我們就能確保在不考慮槓桿的情況下實現良好的價值。一旦我們找到好的機會和/或成長計劃，我們就會找到很好的方法來融資。因此，我們將繼續以有紀律、不受槓桿影響的方式看待事物。

Our next question comes from Matthew DeYoe from Bank of America. .

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

So by my numbers, raw materials in Advanced Materials were maybe something like a $50 million tailwind to the second half of '19. And you had mentioned giving some of that back with lower prices, but I think things get fairly sticky with Tritan, and you did absorb a lot of inflation in 2018. So when it comes to 2020, what should we think about annualization of those second half tailwinds? Should there be more giveback? Is there more opportunity? Yes, if you can expand on that.

因此，根據我的數據，先進材料產業的原料可能為 2019 年下半年帶來 5,000 萬美元的順風。您曾提到透過降低價格來回饋部分損失，但我認為 Tritan 的情況會變得相當棘手，而且您確實在 2018 年吸收了大量通貨膨脹的影響。那麼，當談到 2020 年時，我們該如何看待下半年順風的年度化呢？是否應該給予更多回饋？還有更多機會嗎？是的，如果你能詳細說明一下的話。

Yes. If you look at Advanced Materials, the main driver of their growth continues to be innovation and volume growth. And then there's an opportunity to really keep pricing off of what we'd call the product performance. There is some input costs that do vary, and they did have some tailwind in 2019. I think some of that will moderate, but it will still be there. And I think they've shown good discipline on pricing of their products relative to the performance It provides. And so that's why we think this business will grow in that mid-single-digits EBIT in 2020.

是的。如果你看一下先進材料，你會發現其成長的主要動力仍然是創新和產量成長。然後我們就有機會真正將定價與所謂的產品性能掛鉤。一些投入成本確實有所不同，而且 2019 年確實有一些順風。我認為這種情況會有所緩和，但仍然會存在。我認為他們在產品定價方面表現出了良好的紀律，與產品提供的性能相符。因此，我們認為這項業務的息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 在 2020 年將實現中等個位數成長。

We do -- I mean, we do expect prices to come down a little bit as you share some of that raw material value. We've had thorough conversations with investors on previous calls on this topic. But we expect to hold on to a good portion of it. More importantly, we're going to have volume and mix growth. That is the heart of our strategy across the company as well as the fixed cost leverage and other cost management activities that sort of flow into the segment.

我們確實——我的意思是，我們確實預計隨著您分享部分原材料價值，價格會略有下降。我們在先前的電話會議上已經與投資者就此主題進行了深入的討論。但我們希望能保留其中很大一部分。更重要的是，我們的產量和產品組合都將成長。這是我們整個公司策略的核心，也是固定成本槓桿和流入該部門的其他成本管理活動的核心。

Okay. And then I know you plan on divulging a little bit more of this to come. But opportunities at Crystex, you doubled capacity in Malaysia, and the market has been under pressure since. I got to think that some are older cats and dogs out there, legacy facilities. Do you imagine opportunities for footprint rationalization there?

好的。然後我知道你計劃接下來透露更多這方面的資訊。但在 Crystex 的機會下，你們將馬來西亞的產能翻了一番，自此市場一直面臨壓力。我想那裡有些是年紀較大的貓狗，是遺留的設施。您是否想像過那裡存在足跡合理化的機會？

Yes. So that's one of the areas where we've added advantaged technology with the capacity that we added that produces a far better product, which we call Cure Pro, relative to their current product we make as well as our competitors' so we can help customers improve their tire mixing efficiency by 10% to 20% in their tire plants. And so the new capacity is also differentiated and advantaged. And we are now looking at the overall footprint in this business, just look at where demand is, where we expect demand to grow, what sort of assets really make sense in that, and then we'll make some decisions on what's appropriate as we go forward.

是的。因此，這是我們增加優勢技術的領域之一，我們增加的產能可以生產出比我們目前生產的產品以及競爭對手更好的產品，我們稱之為 Cure Pro，因此我們可以幫助客戶將其輪胎廠的輪胎混合效率提高 10% 到 20%。因此，新產能也具有差異化與優勢。我們現在正在研究這個業務的整體足跡，看看需求在哪裡，我們預期需求會在哪裡成長，什麼樣的資產真正有意義，然後我們會決定在未來採取哪些適當的措施。

Next question comes from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners. .

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Mark, I'm intrigued by your program to leverage your sites. I think you indicated $30 million to $60 million of benefit on the EBIT line over the next 3 years. Can you talk a little bit about which sites are in play? Are there any beyond the GCA and Air Products project at Texas City? How will that flow through over the next 3 years? And which segments might be affected?

馬克，我對您利用網站的計劃很感興趣。我認為您指出未來 3 年內息稅前利潤將達到 3,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元。能稍微談談有哪些網站正在參與其中嗎？除了德克薩斯城的 GCA 和 Air Products 項目之外，還有其他項目嗎？未來 3 年內將會如何發展？哪些部分可能會受到影響？

So we did an acquisition of Sterling at the Texas City site, which is just a phenomenal site when you look at the scale, infrastructure, ports, rail, everything. It's just a great opportunity to leverage. And this is a great example, one of, I think, several that we'll have at Texas City, on how we can sort of provide that site opportunity. And the Gulf Coast Ammonia and the Air Products projects is a great example of what several other opportunities could look like. The -- so I see multiple things there. I'd say what we're doing in St. Gabriel is more unique to supporting Corteva; we'll offer our alkylamine platform. But there are other sites around the world we're looking at. But I do think it can be substantial and very reliably and predictable earnings.

因此，我們收購了位於德州城的 Sterling 公司，從規模、基礎設施、港口、鐵路等各個方面來看，這都是一個非凡的地點。這只是一個絕佳的利用機會。這是一個很好的例子，我認為，這是我們在德克薩斯城將要展示的幾個例子之一，說明了我們如何能夠提供這樣的場地機會。墨西哥灣沿岸氨和空氣產品計畫是其他幾個機會的典範。所以我在那裡看到了多種東西。我想說的是我們在聖路易斯所做的事情。Gabriel 更獨特地支援 Corteva；我們將提供我們的烷基胺平台。但我們正在關注世界各地的其他地點。但我確實認為它可以帶來豐厚、可靠且可預測的收益。

Yes. Kevin, this is Willie. I'll -- if I may add. I would also highlight the fact that on a segment basis, that we would see that primarily benefiting CI and the Additives & Functional Products businesses today. But as we think about further integration beyond those 2 projects, they could benefit other assets as well.

是的。凱文，這是威利。我會——如果我可以補充的話。我還要強調的是，從細分市場來看，我們會看到這主要有利於 CI 和添加劑與功能產品業務。但當我們考慮這兩個項目以外的進一步整合時，它們也可能使其他資產受益。

Okay. And then a financial question for Curt or Willie, perhaps. You've raised your dividend for 10 years in a row. Would you expect that streak to continue notwithstanding the current choppy industrial production environment? What is the level of commitment to long-term growth there, recognizing that it's ultimately a Board decision?

好的。然後也許還有 Curt 或 Willie 的財務問題。您已連續 10 年提高股利。儘管當前工業生產環境不穩定，您是否預期這種勢頭能夠持續下去？考慮到這最終是董事會的決定，對長期成長的承諾程度如何？

Well, Kevin, to your point, it is definitely -- we collaborate with the Board on that decision. I think you will also see that we moderated our dividend as our dividend payout ratio has, I'll call it, gotten back in line with where we would expect it to be post the Solutia and Taminco acquisition. And as we think about future growth, we will continue to grow it, but it will be based on the long-term expectations, consistent with how we have in the past.

嗯，凱文，正如你所說，我們肯定會與董事會合作做出這一決定。我想您還會看到，我們調整了股息，因為我們的股息支付率已恢復到我們預期的 Solutia 和 Taminco 收購後的水平。當我們考慮未來的成長時，我們將繼續成長，但這將基於長期預期，與我們過去的做法一致。

Our next question comes from Jim Sheehan from SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey 的 Jim Sheehan。

Curious about your comments on an advantaged methanol contract that's expiring. Are you going to be exposed to a lot more methanol price volatility? And in which segments would that occur? And how would you expect to deal with it?

我很好奇您對即將到期的優惠甲醇合約的評論。您是否會面臨更大的甲醇價格波動？那這種情況會發生在哪些部分呢？您打算如何處理它？

Yes. This is Willie. What I would say is we're diversified across our methanol exposure as we think about we produce methanol here in our Kingsport site as well as we purchase some methanol, market based as well as other benchmark. So I think we've diversified our exposure as we think about going forward, and that exposure is primarily in our Chemical Intermediates and Additives & Functional Products segments.

是的。這是威利。我想說的是，我們在甲醇方面的投資是多元化的，因為我們考慮到我們在金斯波特工廠生產甲醇，並且我們購買一些甲醇，基於市場以及其他基準。因此，我認為我們在考慮未來發展時已經實現了業務多元化，而業務主要集中在化學中間體和添加劑及功能產品領域。

And can you give us your thoughts on the coronavirus impacts in China? What's embedded in your guidance for post Chinese New Year demand?

您能談談對冠狀病毒對中國的影響的看法嗎？您對春節後的需求有何預期？

So as I said in our outlook statement, our outlook statement does not include the impact of the coronavirus. I think we can all agree it's a little too early to call what those impacts are going to be. But most importantly, we're focused on safety and health of the people in China as well as around the world, including our employees, and making sure we're taking the right set of actions, which we've implemented around controlling travel within China, travel in and out of China and making sure people are as safe as possible.

因此，正如我在我們的展望聲明中所說，我們的展望聲明不包括冠狀病毒的影響。我想我們都同意現在判斷這些影響還為時過早。但最重要的是，我們關注中國以及世界各地人民（包括我們的員工）的安全和健康，並確保我們採取正確的行動，我們已經實施了這些行動，以控制中國境內的旅行、進出中國的旅行並確保人們盡可能的安全。

We do have 9 plants in China and 2 offices, so we're focused on those. And there's obviously going to be a delay based on the Chinese extending the new year out by 1 to 2 weeks depending on where you look at the location. So we'll have to sort of factor that into our thinking.

我們在中國有 9 家工廠和 2 家辦事處，所以我們專注於這些。由於中國將新年延長 1 到 2 週（具體時間取決於地點），因此顯然會出現延遲。因此，我們必須將此因素考慮在內。

I don't think it's a simple conclusion, though, where you just look at the impact of what's going to happen to demand in China, which obviously will occur. So our customers will be shut down, but it's important to keep in mind that our competitors are going to be shut down as well both in China as well as how they compete around the world. So there's probably some opportunities for us to see some volume improvement outside of China as a lot of customers have become dependent on some Chinese sources and we want to make sure we're there to help them when those sources may not be available and help them be a reliable supplier that we're proud of our more global and diverse and reliable footprint.

不過，我認為，這並不是一個簡單的結論，你只需看看中國需求將會發生什麼變化，而這顯然會發生。因此，我們的客戶將會關閉，但重要的是要記住，我們的競爭對手也將關閉，無論是在中國還是在世界各地競爭。因此，我們可能有機會看到中國以外的銷售量有所提高，因為許多客戶已經開始依賴一些中國資源，我們希望確保在這些資源不可用時能夠為他們提供幫助，並幫助他們成為可靠的供應商，我們為我們更加全球化、多樣化和可靠的業務足跡感到自豪。

Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

I think most of us know we had ag issues here in North America. Curt mentioned some ag issues, it sounds like, in China. So can you just kind of size the headwind that you saw in your ag business last year? And do you think you get all of that back this year to a normalization level?

我想我們大多數人都知道北美有農業問題。聽起來，Curt 提到了中國的一些農業問題。那麼，您能否大致估算一下去年農業業務面臨的阻力有多大？您認為今年這一切能恢復到正常水準嗎？

The ag is actually animal nutrition. So it's mostly in China. So it's mostly about the pig population that was hit by the African swine flu. It's hard to get exact numbers, but somewhere around 30% or 50% reduction in that population, which is a huge consumer of these organic assets that we and some others sell. So we saw a volume hit associated with that that's also contributed to some of the pricing challenges in formic acid and a couple of other products. So it's really that dynamic. Obviously, they've got the flu under control; this is the swine flu. And they're rebuilding their population. So we'll start to see it recover this year and next, but it doesn't snap back like the North American ag market could this year.

農業實際上是動物營養。所以它主要在中國。因此，這主要與受到非洲豬流感影響的豬群有關。很難得到確切的數字，但這個人口大約減少了 30% 或 50%，他們是我們和其他一些人銷售的有機資產的巨大消費者。因此，我們看到與此相關的銷量下降，這也導致了甲酸和其他一些產品的價格挑戰。所以它確實很有活力。顯然，他們已經控制住了流感；這是豬流感。他們正在重建人口。因此，我們將在今年和明年看到它復甦，但它不會像今年北美農業市場那樣迅速反彈。

Okay. And then on the licensing effort, is that kind of a proactive effort on your side where there'll be a lot of little projects? Or is that kind of reverse inquiries where 1 or 2 big guys are coming to you for some of your technology and we'll see 1 or 2 big lumpy contracts signed?

好的。那麼，在許可工作方面，你們是否採取了積極主動的措施，並進行了許多小型專案？或者這是一種反向詢價，即一到兩個大公司來找你購買部分技術，然後我們會看到簽署一到兩份大額合約？

Well, our historical program is more of the former where we get some inbound inquiries around acetyls and olefins, which we always do. But what we're identifying here and calling out is this value is a more substantial, proactive approach. So a number of years ago, we had developed a breakthrough technology to make MEG through an alternate process than ethylene to leverage coal gasification. And we sort of turned down that effort internally as we focused more on specialty growth. So we partnered with JM Davy to work with us and finish off that technology and take it to market and leveraging their strength as a licensing organization. So we've been in the background working that with them, and they're close to success on the first license. These licenses are quite large and significant in the scale of what plants will be built. MEG is a critical product, and this technology is a lot better than the oxalate technology they've been trying to use, which has some quality problems. So we think it's a great opportunity for sort of multiple licenses as we go forward. Important to remember these licenses show up in chunky ways, and so it's a little hard to predict exactly when they're going to hit and you register the value.

嗯，我們的歷史項目更多的是前者，我們會收到一些關於乙醯基和烯烴的入站詢問，我們總是這樣做。但我們在這裡要指出的是，這種價值是一種更實質、更積極主動的方法。因此，幾年前，我們開發了一項突破性技術，透過乙烯的替代製程來生產乙二醇，以利用煤氣化。由於我們更加重視專業成長，因此我們在內部拒絕了這種努力。因此，我們與 JM Davy 合作，共同完成該技術並將其推向市場，並利用其作為許可組織的優勢。因此，我們一直在幕後與他們合作，他們已經接近成功獲得第一個許可證。這些許可證的規模相當大，對於將要建造的工廠的規模具有重要意義。MEG 是一種關鍵產品，這項技術比他們一直嘗試使用的草酸鹽技術好得多，後者存在一些品質問題。因此，我們認為這對我們未來獲得多種許可來說是一個絕佳的機會。重要的是要記住這些許可證以笨重的方式出現，因此很難準確預測它們何時會出現並註冊價值。

And we will now take our next question from Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

現在讓我們來回答 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch 提出的下一個問題。

And best wishes, Mr. Espeland. I hope our paths continue to cross.

祝一切順利，埃斯佩蘭先生。我希望我們的道路能夠繼續交叉。

Thank you, Frank.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。

Mark, I apologize, I didn't quite catch what you were talking about with respect to Singapore and the raw material contract and the order of magnitude there. Can you give a little more detail there?

馬克，很抱歉，我沒太聽清楚你所說的新加坡、原料合約以及那裡的數量級。能提供更多細節嗎？

Sure. I'll start and I'll let Willie finish off. But the contract there was a long-term supply contract that we've had in place for a number of years, and it's finally coming up for expiration at the end of this year. And it allows us to terminate it and then consider other options. I'll let Willie cover what those options are.

當然。我先開始，然後讓威利結束。但那裡的合約是一份我們已經簽訂多年的長期供應合同，最終將於今年年底到期。它允許我們終止它，然後考慮其他選擇。我會讓威利來解釋這些選擇是什麼。

As we consider those other options, obviously we look at our existing footprint and our integrated facilities in Texas to support the Chemical Intermediates business. Obviously, this gives us the ability to use that footprint to serve the market and the regions where we are best leveraged to compete based on the cost curve in that business. But you can think about probably in 2021 that we would have an improvement of $25 million versus our current run rate.

當我們考慮其他選擇時，顯然我們會考慮我們現有的足跡和我們在德克薩斯州的綜合設施，以支持化學中間體業務。顯然，這使我們能夠利用該足跡來服務市場和我們根據該業務的成本曲線最有競爭力的地區。但你可以想像一下，到 2021 年，我們的營業額可能會比目前的營業額增加 2,500 萬美元。

All right. Terrific. That's what I thought I heard, but I wanted to clarify that. And you also discussed some of the -- in the AFP business, the part that was doing well. You mentioned specialty fluids. And I know that, that business can be chunky from time to time. Is there -- can you expand upon what might have been the benefit that we saw in 4Q? And is that going to recur in 1Q, in your opinion?

好的。了不起。我以為我聽到的是這樣的，但我想澄清一下。您也討論了法新社業務中一些表現良好的部分。您提到了特殊液體。我知道，這項業務有時會很困難。您能否詳細說明一下我們在第四季可能看到的好處？您認為這種情況會在第一季再次發生嗎？

Yes. The fluids business has been great and developed a much more robust portfolio of end market applications. So historically, it was very dependent on PET applications. For example, on the heat transfer fluids, we've now diversified into LNG facilities and some other things. So we've diversified our market exposure, which is helpful. And we continue to have a very strong competitive position in this business relative to a couple of other small players. So we see that business continuing on. There's always capital construction cycles, Frank, as you pointed out, where this business will moderate up and down. You have the solar fills; sometimes, they can be fairly chunky in how they show up.

是的。流體業務表現優異，並開發出更強大的終端市場應用組合。因此從歷史上看，它非常依賴 PET 應用。例如，在傳熱流體方面，我們現在已經將業務多元化到液化天然氣設施和其他一些領域。因此，我們實現了市場多元化，這是很有幫助的。與其他幾家小公司相比，我們在這個行業中仍然保持著非常強勁的競爭地位。因此，我們認為該業務將繼續進行。弗蘭克，正如你所指出的，資本建設週期總是存在的，在這個週期中，這項業務會出現起伏。你有太陽填充物；有時，它們看起來會相當厚重。

It's also important to mention that a good portion of this business is the aviation fluids business that is actually very steady. This is our hydraulic fluids and turbine oil fluids that go into aircraft and have a much more stable, continuous revenue stream where we've had great growth in revenue as well as margin improvement. And that's just been a great acquisition that we've done as well.

值得一提的是，該業務的很大一部分是航空液體業務，該業務實際上非常穩定。這是我們用於飛機的液壓油和渦輪機油，擁有更穩定、持續的收入來源，我們的收入和利潤率都實現了大幅成長。這也是我們一次偉大的收購。

And our next question comes from Bob Koort from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort)。

A couple of questions. First, Mark, on Slide 12, you showed some interesting metrics around R&D and admin to profitability in -- to revenue base. I guess I'm sort of struck. It would seem like that would be more favorable for commodity companies than specialties. I mean what are the metrics do you look at from a benchmarking standpoint that can help us sort of dimensionalize your business relative to those peers?

有幾個問題。首先，馬克，在第 12 張投影片上，你展示了一些有關研發和管理獲利能力以及收入基礎的有趣指標。我想我有點震驚了。看起來，這對大宗商品公司比專業公司更為有利。我的意思是，從基準測試的角度來看，哪些指標可以幫助我們相對於同業對您的業務進行維度化？

Yes. So Bob, I think the point we're trying to make there is we're a very lean organization that are good stewards of our shareholders' money and trying to make sure every dollar we spend delivers a return. And I'm incredibly proud of how our Chief Technology Officer has, within the budget, transformed our technology organization in a dramatic way. So we had a lot of projects going on around process development, new technologies that we're going to have a payback for a very long time. And he put those to a stop, reoriented the organization much more towards application development and product development. But this AD capability we built is really the key to our success, and we've doubled the amount of resources and capability we've had in that business since 2014 to where we are now within that mix of spend. And that AD, as we explained in our Innovation Day in '18, is how we can do what our customers do. We can make a tire. We can make a shield. We can make thermoplastic final products. We can make a coating. And so we can accelerate our innovation, accelerate the value we understand in those formulations and accelerate how we go to market not just for our direct customers but downstream to drive specification through the market by showing what we can do. So that is really the real test of it. And we're, of course, adding the commercial resources as we gear that side up and find efficiency in the support functions.

是的。所以鮑勃，我認為我們想要表達的觀點是，我們是一個非常精簡的組織，能夠很好地管理股東的資金，並努力確保我們花的每一美元都能帶來回報。我對我們的技術長在預算範圍內以驚人的方式改變了我們的技術組織感到無比自豪。因此，我們圍繞流程開發和新技術開展了許多項目，我們將在很長一段時間內獲得回報。他停止了這些活動，將組織重新定位為應用程式開發和產品開發。但我們建立的這種 AD 能力確實是我們成功的關鍵，自 2014 年以來，我們在該業務中的資源和能力增加了一倍，目前我們已經達到了這一支出組合的水平。正如我們在 2018 年創新日上所解釋的那樣，AD 就是我們如何做到客戶所做的事情。我們可以製造輪胎。我們可以製作一個盾牌。我們可以生產熱塑性最終產品。我們可以製作塗層。因此，我們可以加速創新，加速我們在這些配方中理解的價值，並加速我們進入市場的方式，不僅針對我們的直接客戶，而且也針對下游客戶，透過展示我們的能力來推動市場規範。所以這才是真正的考驗。當然，隨著我們不斷完善這一方面並提高支援功能的效率，我們也在增加商業資源。

The metrics, I think, or the one that we shared with you, the new business revenue from innovation, is the real test. It's -- the revenue we're getting every year, that metric is "year 1". So it's really about the next year. When you see that $400 million last year, that's about helping this year. The $500 million we're aiming for this year will help next year. But we keep very careful track of that, and that's the most important metric to sort of say, are you getting results from this portfolio.

我認為，我們與您分享的指標，也就是來自創新的新業務收入，才是真正的考驗。這是我們每年獲得的收入，這個指標是「第一年」。所以這其實與明年有關。當你看到去年的 4 億美元時，這對今年來說就是幫助。我們今年設定的 5 億美元目標將有助於明年的實現。但我們會非常仔細地追蹤這一點，這是最重要的指標，可以表明您是否從該投資組合中獲得了結果。

We have a bunch of internal stage gate project metrics and milestones and everything else to have good discipline to manage our portfolio on a very disciplined way, and we're constantly optimizing and focusing and shifting resources where we see the best value.

我們擁有一系列內部階段門專案指標和里程碑以及其他一切，以便以非常規範的方式管理我們的投資組合，並且我們不斷優化、集中和轉移資源到我們認為最有價值的地方。

Got it. That's helpful. And then out of your third quarter call that seemed you're putting the brakes down a little bit off your working capital and production levels, trying to lean out into the end of the year, do you have any sense or can you help us quantify what that fixed cost absorption pain might have been and when that might release as you go through '20? Is there a recovery of that, an advantage to that as you go through the year?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，從您在第三季度的電話會議中得知，您似乎正在稍微降低營運資本和生產水平，試圖在年底前實現盈利，您是否有任何感覺，或者您能否幫助我們量化固定成本吸收的痛苦可能是什麼，以及在 20 年期間何時可以釋放這種痛苦？隨著這一年的發展，這種情況是否有所恢復，是否有優勢？

Yes. Bob, the way I'd characterize it is where you're seeing that right now is kind of in the margins. So while we were able to implement the cost reduction actions, those cost reduction actions are harder to see in COGS and our margins is because we had to slow down our plants. We don't give our specific utilization rates, et cetera. But when you get our 10-K, you'll see that our finished goods and our intermediate products in inventory declined 5%. Some of that is value, but also some of it is some of the slowdown within our production rates.

是的。鮑勃，我對此的描述是，你現在看到的是處於邊緣狀態。因此，雖然我們能夠實施成本削減措施，但這些成本削減措施在銷貨成本和利潤率方面很難看出來，因為我們不得不放慢工廠的生產速度。我們沒有給出具體的利用率等等。但是當您拿到我們的 10-K 表格時，您會發現我們的成品和庫存中間產品下降了 5%。其中一些是價值，但也有一些是我們生產力的放緩。

And Bob, I'd just add that we're going to be careful about how we run our plants as we go into the first half of this year so that volume growth is a way to sort of move inventory down and continue making progress on that. It's a great opportunity for us to release a lot of cash as we go forward.

鮑勃，我想補充一點，進入今年上半年，我們將謹慎經營我們的工廠，以便透過產量成長來降低庫存，並繼續在這方面取得進展。這對我們來說是一個絕佳的機會，可以釋放大量現金。

And the next question comes from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Can you give a sense for the recycling technologies, what commodity environments it would not be competitive? And secondly, I may have missed this, the -- in terms of the spreads stabilizing in the middle to back half of the year, are you seeing competitor shutdowns helping improve the prospect for the spreads? Or is it purely tied to your perspective on end market demand?

您能否就回收技術給出一個概念，在什麼樣的商品環境下它不具競爭力？其次，我可能忽略了這一點，就今年中下半年利差穩定而言，您是否認為競爭對手的關閉有助於改善利差前景？或者它純粹與您對終端市場需求的看法有關？

Okay. Good questions. So the first one is circular economy. At this point, with the trends in the marketplace, it's not as much about competing against the price of oil or fossil fuel feedstocks. The train has left the station, right? You've got legislation in Europe and coming in multiple other jurisdictions of banning single-use plastics or putting what they call EPRS, Enhanced Producer Responsibility (sic) [Extended Producer Responsibility], which is basically taxes, on single-use plastics. So the drive for recycling and the value that it's putting on it is creating a real cost choice, not just a consumer preference choice, for brands around the world. Even China now is banning plastic bags in all major cities by the end of this year for groceries and things like that. So the recycled content part we're really excited about what we're doing is a critical differentiator for us. Fortunately, we got out of the single-use plastic business, so we're not trying to defend it. When we got rid of the PET business in 2011, we're more focused on how we provide solutions to customers around the actual recycled content as well as put our recycle content in finished products and durables. So a whole another differentiation, back to Vince's questions earlier, is not only do we have a lot of product differentiation in the performance of the product, we now have a whole new vector of growth in specialty plastics as well as over in textiles and Fibers by putting recycled content in these products, which is a very significant demand. And we do think that we will get a premium relative to fossil, fuel-based products for providing these solutions to the marketplace. You can look at rPET. Through last year in Europe, they traded at roughly a 60% premium to PET in the marketplace. I think that's a bit high, but we do think on a long-term basis. And we do think our technologies provide real solutions because we can access feedstock that's going to a landfill, not compete against some mechanical recycle streams. So the cost structure for us will be more advantaged for our feedstock because it has no alternative value, and that's an important differentiator for what we're doing. So we feel really good about that. We feel like we're in a good differentiated position to sort of move those programs forward in both AM and Fibers.

好的。好問題。第一個是循環經濟。目前，從市場趨勢來看，競爭不再只是石油或化石燃料原料的價格。火車已經離開車站了，對嗎？歐洲和其他多個司法管轄區都已立法禁止使用一次性塑料，或對一次性塑料徵收所謂的 EPRS（增強生產者責任 [延伸生產者責任]），這基本上就是徵稅。因此，回收的動力及其賦予的價值正在為世界各地的品牌創造真正的成本選擇，而不僅僅是消費者的偏好選擇。甚至中國也計劃在今年年底前在所有主要城市禁止使用塑膠袋來裝食品雜貨等物品。因此，我們對所做的事情感到非常興奮，這對我們來說是一個關鍵的區別因素。幸運的是，我們已經退出了一次性塑膠業務，所以我們不會試圖為其辯護。當我們在 2011 年放棄 PET 業務時，我們更加專注於如何為客戶提供有關實際回收材料的解決方案，以及如何將回收材料融入成品和耐用品中。因此，回到 Vince 之前的問題，另一個完全不同的是，我們不僅在產品性能方面有很多產品差異，而且通過在這些產品中添加再生材料，我們現在在特種塑料以及紡織品和纖維方面有了全新的增長載體，這是一個非常重要的需求。我們確實認為，透過向市場提供這些解決方案，我們將獲得比化石燃料產品更高的價格。你可以看看rPET。去年在歐洲，它們的市場交易價格比 PET 高出約 60%。我認為這有點高，但我們確實是從長遠角度考慮的。我們確實認為我們的技術提供了真正的解決方案，因為我們可以獲得進入垃圾掩埋場的原料，而不是與一些機械回收流競爭。因此，我們的成本結構對我們的原料來說更有利，因為它沒有替代價值，這是我們所做工作的一大差異。因此我們對此感到非常高興。我們覺得我們處於一個良好的差異化地位，可以在 AM 和 Fibers 領域推動這些項目的發展。

The second question...

第二個問題...

Spreads.

蔓延。

Was on spread in the back half of last year. As we said, spreads declined through the back half relative to the first half of '19 as people realized that the economy was not going to improve with the settlement of the trade war. And so that elongated economic stress led to more competitive behaviors in particular in CI and that 1/3 of AFP. In CI, we do see prices pretty much stabilizing out relative to competitors who are hitting their cash costs in Asia. So we have seen that. And we are seeing people start moderating run rates or have potentially shut down plants temporarily. I'm not sure, I think, any of these plants are going to shut down permanently. So when the market recovers, some of these people will come back in the marketplace, which is why we've been cautious on how we think about spreads this year, and we're assuming spreads do not improve this year. And so I think we're in a good place there.

去年下半年開始蔓延。正如我們所說，由於人們意識到貿易戰的解決不會讓經濟好轉，2019 年下半年的利差相對於上半年下降。因此，長期的經濟壓力導致了更多的競爭行為，特別是在 CI 和 AFP 的 1/3 中。在 CI 中，我們確實看到價格相對於在亞洲達到現金成本的競爭對手而言基本上穩定。我們已經看到了這一點。我們看到人們開始降低運作率或可能暫時關閉工廠。我認為，我不確定這些工廠是否會永久關閉。因此，當市場復甦時，其中一些將重返市場，這就是為什麼我們對今年的利差持謹慎態度，我們假設今年利差不會改善。所以我認為我們目前處於一個很好的位置。

And our next question comes from John Roberts from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

Yes. And best wishes, Curt, and welcome, Willie. I assume most of the lower raw materials for the overall company are purchased paraxylene and glycols, but could you talk a little bit about acetyls and propylene? Did the Advanced Materials and Fiber segment benefit from the lower acetyls prices? And how does lower propylene play out between CI and AFP?

是的。祝你一切順利，Curt，歡迎，Willie。我認為整個公司的大部分下游原料都是購買的對二甲苯和乙二醇，但您能否談談乙醯和丙烯？先進材料和纖維部門是否受益於乙醯價格的下降？較低的丙烯在 CI 和 AFP 之間如何發揮作用？

So you're correct, polyester benefited from lower paraxylene prices. The olefins benefited from lower ethane and propane prices as well as a propylene supply contract that's a formula to propane. So we saw raw material benefits in the olefin chain.

所以您說得對，聚酯受益於對二甲苯價格的下降。烯烴受益於乙烷和丙烷價格的下降以及丙烯供應合約（丙烷的配方）。因此，我們看到了烯烴鏈中的原料優勢。

On the acetyl chain, we're coal based in how we make our acetyls with our gasifier. Coal prices have been relatively stable, so there wasn't any tailwind there.

在乙醯基鏈上，我們以煤為基礎，利用氣化器製造乙醯基。煤炭價格一直相對穩定，因此不存在任何順風。

And our next question comes from Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

下一個問題來自都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特的馬修布萊爾。

Willie, could you quantify the currency impact on EPS in 2019?

威利，你能量化貨幣對 2019 年每股盈餘的影響嗎？

Yes. It's basically consistent with what we were saying in Q3, which is about $0.30 a share, so it was slightly up. I'd also remind you that about 85% of that's in our Advanced Materials and is in the functional products businesses.

是的。這與我們第三季所說的基本一致，約為每股 0.30 美元，因此略有上漲。我還要提醒您，其中約 85% 來自我們的先進材料和功能產品業務。

Great. And then could you provide any color on the overall trajectory of the business during Q4? You did come in a little bit above the midpoint guidance provided in October. Does that imply that things were picking up a little bit in December?

偉大的。那麼，您能否介紹一下第四季業務的整體發展趨勢？你確實比十月份提供的中點指導高出一點。這是否意味著 12 月情況有所改善？

They did. So we had a good October. We had a weak November. That gave us some concern about what might happen in December. And then volume came in better than expected. And costs came in quite a bit better than expected on the raw materials side.

他們確實這麼做了。所以我們度過了一個愉快的十月。我們度過了一個疲軟的十一月。這讓我們對 12 月可能發生的事情有些擔憂。然後交易量就比預期的要好。原材料方面的成本比預期好得多。

So the last question comes from Michael Sison from Wells Fargo.

最後一個問題來自富國銀行的麥可‧西森。

Curt, congrats and it was great working with you. In terms of your outlook for AFP, I just want to make sure I understood. Flat to down for EBIT. Does the specialty side, the 2/3, grow pretty -- does it grow next year to maybe mid-single digits, and the 1/3 that's more challenged down double digits or something? Can you just give us a little bit of color on each of the pieces?

科特，恭喜你，和你合作很愉快。關於您對法新社的展望，我只是想確保我理解了。息稅前利潤持平或下降。專業方面，即 2/3，是否會增長得相當好——明年是否會增長到中等個位數，而面臨更大挑戰的 1/3 是否會下降到兩位數或類似的水平？能為我們簡單介紹一下每件作品的顏色嗎？

Yes. So first of all, through '19, the 2/3 did quite well. As Curt laid out, prices were relatively flat outside of their cost pass-through contracts, and we expect that to continue this year where prices will be stable. And we saw raw material benefits as a result. We saw volume growth. And we had this headwind, especially in these high-value additives for automotive, in China, net out to being modestly down for last year. So as we look at this year, we see volume, we see raws stable as well as pricing. So that's going to deliver some growth as well as some cost reductions. So you do see some earnings growth in the 2/3 side of the portfolio. And you're correct, the potential for down net earnings for the AFP segment is in the 1/3 segment as we've taken those lower spreads from the back half of last year. We do regain some volume. So as we had good discipline in pricing for the first half of '19, we lost some volume in adhesives and tires, regaining that with some pricing in the fourth quarter, so we'll have a volume improvement. But some pricing down, net, in the 1/3 as well as -- but you're going to have some earnings challenges there just given where spreads are at this point. And so I think you're directionally correct.

是的。首先，到 19 年，2/3 的表現相當不錯。正如 Curt 所述，成本轉嫁合約之外的價格相對平穩，我們預計今年價格將繼續保持穩定。我們因此看到了原料的效益。我們看到了銷量的成長。我們遇到了這種逆風，特別是在中國，這些用於汽車的高價值添加劑的淨銷售額去年略有下降。因此，當我們回顧今年時，我們看到產量、原料和價格都保持穩定。因此這將帶來一些成長以及一些成本降低。因此，你確實會看到投資組合的 2/3 部分的收益有所增長。您說得對，AFP 部門淨收益下降的可能性在 1/3 部分，因為我們從去年下半年開始就採用了較低的利差。我們的銷量確實恢復了一些。因此，由於我們在 2019 年上半年的定價方面有良好的紀律，我們在粘合劑和輪胎方面損失了一些銷量，但在第四季度通過一些定價恢復了銷量，因此我們的銷量將會有所改善。但一些定價下降，淨值在 1/3 左右——但考慮到目前的利差，你將面臨一些獲利挑戰。所以我認為你的方向是正確的。

Great. And then one quick one on Tritan. It's been a good growth business for several years. How are you on capacity? Do you need to add capacity? Or do you have enough to sort of support the growth that you're seeing?

偉大的。然後快速討論一下 Tritan。幾年來，我們的業務一直保持著良好的成長動能。您的容量怎麼樣？您需要增加容量嗎？或者您有足夠的資源來支持您所看到的成長？

We're well positioned on capacity. We had doubled the capacity in 2018 because we had run our capacity because the volume growth had been so strong. This was one of several plants that we brought online in 2018 where volume was really great across AFP and with the growth we've been having until the trade war hit. And so we're well positioned to support growth there.

我們的產能處於有利地位。2018 年我們的產能增加了一倍，因為產量成長非常強勁，我們已經用完了全部產能。這是我們於 2018 年投產的幾家工廠之一，在 AFP 地區，該工廠的產量非常大，並且在貿易戰爆發之前一直保持增長。因此，我們已做好準備，支持那裡的成長。

And if I could add, Mike, that's an example for this business. Not only you get volume growth, you get mix upgrade, now you get fixed cost leverage as well.

麥克，如果我可以補充的話，這就是這個行業的一個例子。您不僅可以獲得銷售成長，還可以獲得產品組合升級，現在還可以獲得固定成本槓桿。

Thanks, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thanks, again, everyone, for joining us this morning. Appreciate your time. Have a great day. There'll be a replay of this available on our website later this morning. Thanks again.

再次感謝大家今天早上加入我們。感謝您的時間。祝你有美好的一天。今天上午晚些時候，我們的網站將會播放此影片的重播。再次感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。