伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Eastman Chemical Company Third Quarter 2019 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman's website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化學公司2019年第三季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。這場電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將電話轉給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Matt, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Curt Espeland, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝你，馬特，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、執行副總裁兼首席財務官科特·埃斯佩蘭 (Curt Espeland) 和投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in the company's third quarter 2019 financial results news release, during this call and in the accompanying slides and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-Q filed for second quarter 2019 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for third quarter 2019.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在公司 2019 年第三季度財務業績新聞稿、本次電話會議及隨附幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的 2019 年第二季度 10-Q 表和即將提交的 2019 年第三季度 10-Q 表。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items and used as an adjusted tax rate, the forecasted full year tax rate. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the third quarter 2019 financial results news release, which can be found on our website, www.eastman.com in the Investors section. Projections of future earnings exclude any noncore, unusual or nonrecurring items and assume a forecasted full year tax rate.

其次，本報告中引用的收益不包括某些非核心和非常規項目，並使用預測的全年稅率作為調整後的稅率。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標及其他相關披露的對賬，包括排除項目和調整項目的描述，均可在 2019 年第三季度財務業績新聞稿中找到，該新聞稿可在我們的網站 www.eastman.com 的“投資者”部分找到。未來收益預測不包括任何非核心、不尋常或非經常性項目，並假設預測的全年稅率。

With that, I'll turn it over to Mark.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給馬克。

Thanks, Greg. Good morning, everyone. I'll start on Slide 3 with some strategic highlights. We had solid results in the third quarter despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, which has deteriorated in the second half of this year. EPS for the third quarter was similar to the second quarter, especially considering the local electrical outage that caused a shutdown at our Longview site.

謝謝，格雷格。大家早安。我將從幻燈片 3 開始介紹一些戰略亮點。儘管今年下半年宏觀經濟環境進一步惡化，充滿挑戰，但我們在第三季仍取得了穩健的業績。第三季的每股盈餘與第二季相似，特別是考慮到當地電力中斷導致我們的 Longview 工廠停工。

We took actions to offset the decline in volumes as our teams are focusing on what they can control to manage costs better, accelerate our innovation programs and remain disciplined with discretionary spending, among other actions, which led to the solid performance.

我們採取了措施來抵消銷售量的下降，因為我們的團隊正專注於他們可以控制的事情，以更好地管理成本，加速我們的創新計劃，並在可自由支配的支出方面保持紀律，以及其他行動，從而帶來了穩健的業績。

Despite the economic challenges, we remain on track for approximately $400 million in new business revenue closes from innovation in 2019, led by Advanced Materials. This segment has a number of innovative products that are showing tremendous resilience in this environment. Even with exposure to the challenged auto OEM markets, strong growth across specialty products like paint protection film, Tritan, acoustics and heads-up display interlayers are offsetting weakness in the core business.

儘管面臨經濟挑戰，我們仍有望在 2019 年透過創新實現約 4 億美元的新業務收入，其中以先進材料業務為首。該領域擁有許多創新產品，在這種環境下展現了強大的韌性。即使面臨汽車原始設備製造商市場的挑戰，漆面保護膜、Tritan、音響和平視顯示器中間膜等特種產品的強勁成長也抵消了核心業務的疲軟。

AM's resilience is a testament to the strength of the strategy and our innovation programs we've been leading for close to a decade. And although AFPs innovation initiatives were started later, I'm confident they will make substantial progress over the next couple of years.

AM 的韌性證明了我們近十年來一直領導的策略和創新計劃的實力。儘管 AFP 的創新舉措起步較晚，但我相信它們將在未來幾年取得實質進展。

As we discussed before, in this challenging business environment, we continue to achieve our cost-reduction targets where we stayed focused on innovation to create our own growth. Consistent with our disciplined capital allocation strategy, we returned $583 million to stockholders through the first 9 months of 2019 through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. We are also focused on improving the strength of our balance sheet by delevering $300 million for the full year. And finally, we expect our free cash flow to approach $1.1 billion.

正如我們之前所討論的，在這個充滿挑戰的商業環境中，我們繼續實現降低成本的目標，並專注於創新以創造我們自己的成長。按照我們嚴謹的資本配置策略，我們在 2019 年前 9 個月透過股利和股票回購等方式向股東返還了 5.83 億美元。我們也致力於透過全年減少 3 億美元的槓桿來增強資產負債表的實力。最後，我們預計我們的自由現金流將接近 11 億美元。

Two additional highlights on the specialty products. Earlier this week, we announced that we have achieved commercial operation of our carbon renewal technology, or CRT, which is a form of chemical recycling. This is a significant step forward in our efforts to help solve the problem of plastic waste and accelerate the circular economy. CRT is a game-changer for recycling because it provides an end-of-life solution for many plastics from a variety of sources that have no alternative use and end up in landfill or the ocean.

特色產品還有另外兩個亮點。本週早些時候，我們宣布我們的碳更新技術（CRT）已實現商業化運營，這是一種化學回收技術。這是我們幫助解決塑膠垃圾問題和加速循環經濟發展的努力邁出的重要一步。CRT 改變了回收的格局，因為它為來自各種來源的多種塑膠提供了一種報廢解決方案，這些塑膠沒有其他用途，最終被填埋或排入海洋。

CRT is operated here in Kingsport, our largest manufacturing site so we can take full advantage of our integration to make this happen. This means the plastic waste we recycle to CRT will go into products used in markets we already participate in, including textiles, cosmetics, personal care and ophthalmics. And the CRT plastic waste can be recycled an infinite number of times without degradation of quality unlike mechanical recycling.

CRT 位於我們最大的製造基地金斯波特，因此我們可以充分利用我們的整合優勢來實現這一目標。這意味著我們回收給 CRT 的塑膠廢物將用於我們已經參與的市場中使用的產品，包括紡織品、化妝品、個人護理和眼科產品。而且，CRT 塑膠廢棄物可以無限次回收，且不會像機械回收那樣降低品質。

In 2020, we expect to use up to 50 million pounds of waste plastic in our CRT operations. This technology significantly changes the value proposition of our cellulosic products, which have been about 60% bio-based from certified sustainable forest. Now the other 40% will be recycled content, which creates a very compelling offer with a dramatic increase in the environmental sensitivity in many of these markets that we serve. And within the next several years, we expect revenue from CRT will be in the $200 million to $300 million range, with significant upside from there in our specialty products.

2020 年，我們預計在 CRT 營運中使用多達 5,000 萬磅廢塑膠。這項技術大大改變了我們的纖維素產品的價值主張，這些產品中約 60% 的成分來自經過認證的永續森林的生物基。現在，另外 40% 將採用再生材料，這將帶來極具吸引力的優惠，並大幅提高我們所服務的許多市場的環境敏感度。在未來幾年內，我們預計 CRT 的營收將達到 2 億至 3 億美元，我們的特色產品將具有顯著的成長空間。

So we're very excited about this milestone. In addition, by the end of the year, we also expect to be commercial scale for another chemical recycling technology for polyester, one of many more advancements you can expect from Eastman in the area of waste plastic recycling and accelerating the circular economy.

因此，我們對這一里程碑感到非常興奮。此外，到今年年底，我們還有望實現另一種聚酯化學回收技術的商業化規模，這是伊士曼在廢塑膠回收和加速循環經濟領域可以期待的眾多進步之一。

Second, we recently were recognized for our leadership in the area of sustainability by LUXE PACK, the premier cosmetic packaging event for luxury brands. Eastman has won the [2019] (corrected by company after the call) LUXE PACK green Award for activating the circular economy. At the LUXE PACK show, Eastman showcased next-generation Eastman Treva engineering cellulosic bioplastics and introduced Eastman Cristal Revel copolyesters, which is a new line of proprietary consumer recycled content compounded polyesters. These investments enable us to be a leader in accelerating the circular economy and commercial scale ahead of many others.

其次，我們最近因在永續發展領域的領導地位而獲得了奢侈品牌頂級化妝品包裝盛會 LUXE PACK 的認可。伊士曼因激活循環經濟而榮獲[2019]（公司後更正）LUXE PACK綠色獎。在LUXE PACK展會上，伊士曼展示了下一代Eastman Treva工程纖維素生物塑料，並推出了Eastman Cristal Revel共聚酯，這是一個專有的消費再生材料複合聚酯的全新系列。這些投資使我們在加速循環經濟和商業規模方面領先許多其他公司。

With that, I'll turn it over to Curt to discuss the corporate and segment financial results.

接下來，我將把主題交給 Curt 來討論公司和部門的財務表現。

Thanks, Mark, and again, good morning, everyone. Starting with the corporate review on Slide 4 and beginning with the year-over-year comparison.

謝謝，馬克，大家早安。從投影片 4 上的公司回顧開始，然後進行年比比較。

Sales revenue declined due to lower selling prices, lower sales volume and mix and the stronger dollar. Chemical Intermediates was the biggest contributor to the lower selling prices, and this is mostly due to prices following lower raw material energy prices, as you would expect.

由於銷售價格下降、銷售量和產品組合減少以及美元走強，導致銷售收入下降。化學中間體是導致銷售價格下降的最大因素，正如您所預料的，這主要是由於原材料能源價格下降導致的價格下降。

The lower volume was primarily due to the challenging economic climate, which worsened during the quarter as industrial production decelerated, as well as the impact of planned and unplanned shutdowns this quarter. This deceleration had a significant unfavorable mix impact with lower volumes of high-value specialties. We partially offset these factors with growth in new business revenue from innovation.

銷售下降主要是由於本季嚴峻的經濟環境，隨著工業生產減速，經濟環境進一步惡化，以及本季計畫內和計畫外停工的影響。這種減速對組合產生了顯著的不利影響，導致高價值特種產品產量下降。我們透過創新帶來的新業務收入成長部分抵消了這些因素。

EBIT declined due to the culmination of lower sales volumes, unfavorable product mix, increased maintenance costs and a stronger dollar, somewhat offset by cost-reduction efforts. Looking sequentially, revenue declined slightly due to lower selling prices. EBIT was down somewhat mostly due to the higher maintenance-related costs.

息稅前利潤下降是由於銷售量下降、產品組合不利、維護成本增加以及美元走強，但成本削減措施在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。從環比來看，由於銷售價格下降，收入略有下降。息稅前利潤有所下降，主要是由於維護相關成本增加。

There are a number of factors that have changed since our call in July. Industrial production has decelerated, driven by the further escalation in global trade issues, including the U.S.-China trade dispute in August, as you can see in the German and U.S. economic data, and we believe it is also occurring in China.

自從我們七月召開電話會議以來，許多因素都改變了。受8月中美貿易爭端等全球貿易問題進一步升級的影響，工業生產已經放緩，正如德國和美國的經濟數據所顯示的那樣，我們認為中國也出現了同樣的情況。

In particular, we can see the impact of key consumer discretionary end markets slowing, including transportation, consumer durables and electronics. As a result, volume has come in lower than expected, which in turn has resulted in lower capacity utilization. In an environment like we are in now, we remain focused on what we can control, closing new business revenue, reducing costs and generating strong free cash flow.

特別是，我們可以看到主要非必需消費品終端市場的影響正在放緩，包括交通、耐用消費品和電子產品。結果，產量低於預期，進而導致產能利用率下降。在我們現在所處的環境中，我們仍然專注於我們能夠控制的事情，實現新業務收入，降低成本並產生強勁的自由現金流。

Now turning to Slide 5 to review Advanced Materials, which had a record quarter despite about 1/3 of the segment exposed to the automotive market. On a year-over-year basis, sales revenue decreased modestly as our innovation successes mostly offset demand challenges caused by global trade disruptions and reduced global automotive sales. In particular, we delivered strong growth in premium products, including Tritan copolyester, Saflex acoustic interlayers and paint protection film.

現在翻到幻燈片 5 來回顧先進材料，儘管該板塊約有 1/3 的份額面向汽車市場，但其季度業績仍創下了紀錄。與去年同期相比，銷售收入略有下降，因為我們的創新成功基本上抵消了全球貿易中斷和全球汽車銷售下降帶來的需求挑戰。特別是，我們的高端產品實現了強勁成長，包括Tritan共聚酯、Saflex隔音夾層和漆面保護膜。

EBIT increased primarily due to lower raw material costs, more favorable product mix and continued cost management. Sequentially, revenue was stable and EBIT increased. The increase in EBIT was largely driven by higher Tritan volumes, the flow-through of lower raw material costs and the benefit of cost management.

息稅前利潤的成長主要由於原物料成本的降低、更有利的產品組合以及持續的成本管理。連續，收入保持穩定，息稅前利潤增加。息稅前利潤的成長主要得益於 Tritan 產量的增加、原料成本的降低以及成本管理的效益。

As we think about the balance of the year, we expect to continue to benefit from strong growth in some of the more premium product lines, which will help to offset the general weakness in some of our end markets such as transportation.

當我們考慮今年的平衡時，我們預計將繼續受益於一些更高端產品線的強勁成長，這將有助於抵消我們一些終端市場（如運輸）的普遍疲軟。

Also, consistent with my corporate comments, we expect a normal seasonal deceleration in demand in the fourth quarter, which will offset benefit from lower raw material costs and cost actions. All in, we think the fourth quarter EBIT will be up significantly year-over-year.

此外，與我的公司評論一致，我們預計第四季度需求將出現正常的季節性減速，這將抵消原材料成本下降和成本行動的好處。整體而言，我們認為第四季息稅前利潤將比去年同期大幅成長。

Putting it all together, we expect Advanced Materials EBIT to grow in the low single digits for the full year of 2019. These results in this challenging economic climate demonstrate the strength of our innovation-driven growth model to create our own growth and defend our value with customers.

綜合考慮所有因素，我們預計先進材料 2019 年全年息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 將實現低個位數成長。在充滿挑戰的經濟環境下所取得的這些成果證明了我們創新驅動的成長模式的優勢，能夠創造我們自身的成長並捍衛我們與客戶的價值。

Turning to Slide 6 in Additives & Functional Products. Year-over-year, sales revenue decreased due to lower selling prices, lower sales volume and less favorable product mix and a stronger dollar. Lower selling prices were primarily due to lower raw material prices, with about 40% of the decline from cost pass-through contracts, and the remainder attributed to increased competitive pressure, particularly for adhesive resins, tire additives and formic acid that serves several end markets.

翻到添加劑和功能產品中的第 6 張投影片。與去年同期相比，由於銷售價格下降、銷售量下降、產品組合不佳以及美元走強，銷售收入有所下降。銷售價格下降主要是由於原材料價格下降，其中約 40% 的降幅來自成本轉嫁合同，其餘部分則歸因於競爭壓力的增加，特別是對於服務於多個終端市場的粘合劑樹脂、輪胎添加劑和甲酸而言。

We realized solid growth in care chemicals, water treatment and specialty fluids, but that growth was more than offset by weaker end market demand resulting from continuing global trade-related pressures, particularly in transportation and other consumer discretionary markets.

我們在護理化學品、水處理和特殊液體方面實現了穩健增長，但這一增長被持續的全球貿易相關壓力導致的終端市場需求疲軟所抵消，尤其是在運輸和其他非必需消費品市場。

EBIT decreased primarily due to less-favorable product mix, lower sales volume, increased planned manufacturing site maintenance costs and a stronger dollar. Excluding currency, spreads were flat.

息稅前利潤下降主要是因為產品組合不太理想、銷售量下降、計畫製造基地維護成本增加、美元走強。除貨幣外，利差持平。

Turning to the sequential comparison. Sales increased as higher volume and better product mix was mostly offset by lower prices, particularly for care chemical cost pass-through contracts. EBIT decreased due to the volume growth and mix improvement, being more than offset by higher maintenance shutdown costs as well as lower prices in tire additives and formic acid products.

轉向順序比較。銷售額的成長是由於銷售的增加和產品組合的改善大部分被價格的降低所抵消，特別是護理化學品成本轉嫁合約。息稅前利潤因銷售成長和產品組合改善而下降，但被更高的維護停工成本以及輪胎添加劑和甲酸產品價格的下降所抵消。

Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect earnings to moderate due to normal seasonality, albeit from a lower base, due to the slower economy. This uncertain environment is weighing on the end markets for AFP. We are seeing some signs that customers may have decided to stay down longer coming out of their fourth quarter shutdowns. With this risk in mind, we expect AFP's EBIT in the fourth quarter to be similar to last year.

展望第四季度，我們預計獲利將因正常的季節性因素而放緩，儘管由於經濟放緩，獲利基數較低。這種不確定的環境給 AFP 的終端市場帶來了壓力。我們看到一些跡象表明，客戶可能決定在第四季度停產後繼續停產。考慮到這種風險，我們預計 AFP 第四季的息稅前利潤將與去年同期持平。

Before moving on, let me take a moment to discuss the performance in Additives & Functional Products this year and add a little more color. Although it is hard to see in the results, we have had about 2/3 of the revenue performing well in this difficult business environment. These areas are care chemicals, water treatments, specialty fluids and coatings businesses as well as parts of animal nutrition.

在繼續之前，請允許我花點時間討論今年添加劑和功能產品的表現，並添加一些色彩。儘管從業績上看來不太清楚，但在這種艱難的商業環境下，我們約有三分之二的收入表現良好。這些領域包括護理化學品、水處理、特殊液體和塗料業務以及動物營養部分。

Strong growth in care chemicals, water treatment and specialty fluids, expanding spreads, and fixed cost reduction actions were offset by lower coatings volumes and high-value additives in automotive, currency headwinds and lower Animal Nutrition demand due to China's swine fever.

護理化學品、水處理和特殊液體的強勁增長、利差擴大以及固定成本削減措施，被汽車塗料產量和高價值添加劑的下降、貨幣逆風以及中國豬瘟導致的動物營養需求下降所抵消。

Earnings in these businesses, combined, have only declined modestly year-to-date. Where there has been the most pressure in the remaining 1/3 of this segment has been specifically tire additives, adhesives resins and formic acid businesses. So the pressure you've seen in the segment is not in most business but rather on those 3 businesses I just mentioned.

今年迄今為止，這些業務的總收益僅略有下降。該領域剩餘 1/3 部分面臨的最大壓力具體為輪胎添加劑、黏合劑樹脂和甲酸業務。因此，您在該領域看到的壓力不是在大多數業務上，而是在我剛才提到的三個業務上。

Now to Chemical Intermediates on Slide 7. Year-over-year sales revenue decreased due to lower selling prices and lower sales volume. The lower selling prices were due to lower raw material prices and competitive activity. The lower sales volume was due to weaker demand, particularly for agricultural end markets as a result of weather and for other intermediate products due to increased competitive activity.

現在就來看看幻燈片 7 上的化學中間體。由於銷售價格下降和銷售量下降，銷售收入較去年同期下降。銷售價格下降是由於原物料價格下降和競爭激烈造成的。銷售下降是由於需求疲軟，特別是由於天氣原因對農業終端市場的需求以及由於競爭加劇對其他中間產品的需求。

EBIT decreased due to increased planned shutdown costs and a local power disruption impacting the Longview, Texas manufacturing site. Taken together, these costs were about a $30 million headwind for Chemical Intermediates in the quarter, $15 million of which was due to the unplanned power outage.

由於計劃停工成本增加以及當地電力中斷影響了德州朗維尤製造基地，息稅前利潤下降。總體而言，這些成本在本季度給化學中間體帶來了約 3000 萬美元的損失，其中 1500 萬美元是由於非計劃停電造成的。

EBIT also decreased due to lower sales volume and spreads. These headwinds were partially offset by the benefit from the recent refinery-grade propylene investment and continued cost management. On a sequential basis, sales revenue decreased due to lower sales volume, particularly for functional means due to normal seasonality. EBIT decreased primarily due to the planned and unplanned outages, continued spread decline in olefins and acetyls and functional amine volume seasonality.

由於銷售量和利差下降，息稅前利潤也有所下降。這些不利因素被近期煉油級丙烯投資和持續成本管理帶來的好處部分抵消。與上一季相比，由於銷售量下降，銷售收入下降，特別是由於正常的季節性因素，功能性產品的銷售量有所下降。息稅前利潤下降主要由於計劃內和計劃外停工、烯烴和乙醯基的持續價差下降以及功能胺產量的季節性變化。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, there are a few headwinds in front of us. First, volume is lower due to weak demand environment but also increasing competitive pressure as markets outside of the United States are increasingly challenged by global trade issues.

展望第四季度，我們面臨一些阻力。首先，由於需求環境疲軟導致銷售下降，由於美國以外的市場日益受到全球貿易問題的挑戰，競爭壓力也日益增大。

Also, remember the cost of the turnaround of our largest cracker in Longview, Texas is in both the third and fourth quarters. So a similar amount of the cost of that planned shutdown will be in the fourth quarter. And then finally, customer inventory management at year-end, potentially beyond more the normal seasonality, could put pressure on our volumes and our capacity utilization rates.

另外，請記住，我們位於德克薩斯州朗維尤的最大裂解廠的周轉成本是在第三季和第四季。因此，計劃停產的成本將在第四季度產生類似的影響。最後，年底的客戶庫存管理可能會超出正常的季節性，可能會對我們的銷售量和產能利用率造成壓力。

Finishing up the segment reviews with Fibers on Slide 8. Year-over-year, sales revenue decreased primarily due to lower acetate flake sales volume due to our acetate tow joint venture in China attributed to customer buying patterns. The sales revenue decline was partially offset by the sales from the recently acquired cellulosic yarn business and increased sales of textile innovation products.

使用幻燈片 8 上的纖維完成分部回顧。與去年同期相比，銷售收入下降主要是因為顧客購買模式導致我們在中國的醋酸纖維絲束合資企業醋酸纖維薄片銷售下降。銷售收入的下降被最近收購的纖維素紗線業務的銷售額和紡織創新產品的銷售額的成長部分抵消。

EBIT decreased due to the impact of the inventory recovery in the third quarter of last year or third quarter 2018 from the coal gas incident and less favorable product mix. On a sequential basis, results were stable with the second quarter.

息稅前利潤下降是由於去年第三季或2018年第三季煤氣事件後庫存恢復以及產品組合不太有利的影響。與上一季相比，業績與第二季持平。

Looking at the fourth quarter, we expect earnings to be consistent with the run rate of the last 2 quarters as we've made good progress stabilizing results in this business.

展望第四季度，我們預計收益將與過去兩個季度的運行率保持一致，因為我們在穩定該業務業績方面取得了良好進展。

Lastly, a quick update on our textiles business within Fibers. We are making great progress in our focus areas within textiles as we are aligned with some of the leading brands and our materials, particularly Naia, is incorporated into these customers' sustainability collections.

最後，讓我們來簡單介紹一下我們 Fibers 部門的紡織業務。由於我們與一些領先品牌結盟，並且我們的材料（尤其是 Naia）被納入這些客戶的可持續發展系列，因此我們在紡織品重點領域取得了巨大進展。

This has been somewhat offset by slower demand in more traditional applications such as suit linings and tapes due to slower economic growth. With that said, we remain confident that we are on track with our textiles initiatives to offset the expected continued decline in tow demand in the long term.

由於經濟成長放緩，西裝襯裡和膠帶等更傳統的應用需求放緩，這在一定程度上抵消了這一增長。話雖如此，我們仍然相信，我們的紡織品計劃能夠順利實施，以抵消預期的長期絲束需求持續下降的影響。

In particular, I am very excited about how we can accelerate growth in Naia with carbon renewal technology, adding recycled content to a product that is already bio-based.

特別是，我對我們如何利用碳更新技術加速 Naia 的成長感到非常興奮，將回收成分添加到已經是生物基的產品中。

Switching to the financial highlights on Slide 9. We continue to expect free cash flow approaching $1.1 billion. Our free cash flow is up about $50 million this quarter compared to third quarter 2018. And our business teams are working hard to deliver this result in a challenging fourth quarter.

切換到幻燈片 9 上的財務亮點。我們繼續預計自由現金流將接近 11 億美元。與 2018 年第三季相比，本季我們的自由現金流增加了約 5,000 萬美元。我們的業務團隊正在努力在充滿挑戰的第四季取得這項成果。

Consistent with our track record, I'm confident in our ability to deliver solid result. Through 9 months, we've returned $583 million to stockholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends, and we remain committed to our investment-grade credit rating. For the full year, we still expect to delever by about $300 million.

根據我們的過往記錄，我相信我們有能力取得可靠的成果。在過去的 9 個月中，我們透過股票回購和股息等方式向股東返還了 5.83 億美元，我們仍然致力於保持投資級信用評級。就全年而言，我們仍預期去槓桿規模將達到約 3 億美元。

In the last few years, we remained disciplined in our capital allocation through a combination of share repurchases and increasing dividend and debt paydown. As we progress into 2020, we'll continue to use our cash in a combination of all 3, including further delevering in 2020.

過去幾年，我們透過股票回購、增加股利和債務償還等方式，嚴格控制資本配置。隨著我們進入 2020 年，我們將繼續以這三種方式組合使用現金，包括在 2020 年進一步去槓桿。

Our full year effective tax rate is expected to be 16%. Capital expenditures will be approximately $425 million to $450 million for 2019, and we still expect corporate other net cost to be a little above $60 million for the full year.

我們的全年有效稅率預計為16%。2019 年的資本支出約為 4.25 億美元至 4.5 億美元，我們仍預計全年企業其他淨成本將略高於 6,000 萬美元。

With that, I'll turn it back to Mark.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給馬克。

Thanks, Curt. On Slide 10, I'll provide an update on our 2019 outlook.

謝謝，Curt。在第 10 張投影片上，我將提供有關我們 2019 年展望的最新資訊。

We continue making progress, including new business from innovation and market development initiatives. But the increased trade uncertainty, including from the U.S.-China trade dispute, has caused a meaningful deceleration in industrial activity around the world, including Asia and Europe and now here in the U.S. In this kind of economic environment, we are resolutely focused on the things that we can control.

我們不斷取得進展，包括來自創新和市場開發舉措的新業務。但包括中美貿易爭端在內的貿易不確定性增加，已導致全球（包括亞洲、歐洲以及現在的美國）工業活動大幅減速。在這種經濟環境下，我們堅定地專注於我們能夠控制的事物。

As I mentioned, we've made excellent progress on increasing new business from innovation in this environment, particularly in Advanced Materials. In addition, we continue to aggressively manage costs across the company, and we continue to expect to generate strong free cash flow this year despite the challenging environment.

正如我所提到的，我們在透過這種環境下的創新增加新業務方面取得了顯著進展，特別是在先進材料領域。此外，我們繼續積極管理整個公司的成本，儘管環境充滿挑戰，我們仍然預計今年將產生強勁的自由現金流。

However, this market context is leading the lower volumes in the second half of the year than we had previously expected. There are some continuing pockets of destocking related to lower demand such as transportation in Europe and the U.S. We're also seeing some customers extend maintenance downtimes and shift turnarounds into the fourth quarter to manage inventory due to this deceleration that was not expected in the summer.

然而，這種市場背景導致下半年的銷售量低於我們先前的預期。由於歐洲和美國的運輸等需求下降，一些地區持續出現去庫存現象。我們還看到，由於夏季未曾預料到的減速，一些客戶延長了維護停機時間，並將週轉時間轉移到第四季度以管理庫存。

We are also managing our inventory in the quarter in line with what we are seeing from our customers. These lower volumes are resulting in lower capacity utilization than we had expected, and the fixed cost hit of the utilization is mostly offsetting the cost savings from our productivity actions we took in the first half of the year.

我們也根據客戶的情況管理本季的庫存。產量下降導致產能利用率低於我們的預期，而產能利用率造成的固定成本衝擊大部分抵消了我們上半年採取的生產力行動所節省的成本。

Putting this all together, we are updating our full year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $7.00 and $7.20.

綜合以上所有因素，我們將全年調整後每股盈餘預期更新至 7.00 美元至 7.20 美元之間。

Our guidance is based on current economic conditions and normal seasonality from here. However, we can't predict macroeconomic conditions and the extent to which customers will choose to manage inventory at the end of the year. I can give you scenarios where we could be higher given the strength of October orders or lower if we face unusually high inventory management in December.

我們的指導是基於當前的經濟狀況和正常的季節性。然而，我們無法預測宏觀經濟狀況以及客戶在年底會選擇管理庫存的程度。我可以給你一些情景，考慮到 10 月訂單的強勁表現，我們的銷售額可能會更高，但如果 12 月我們面臨異常高的庫存管理，銷售額可能會更低。

And we're maintaining free cash flow guidance of approaching $1.1 billion, which remains a priority, and will be a great result in this environment and represent very attractive free cash flow conversion.

我們維持接近 11 億美元的自由現金流指導，這仍然是我們的優先事項，在當前環境下將是一個很好的結果，並且代表著非常有吸引力的自由現金流轉換。

Earlier, I mentioned it's our robustness that gives me confidence in our future, and that remains true for me today. Even with some unprecedented challenges we face, the people at Eastman remain steadfast in their commitment to drive results, and I want to thank them for continuing to execute on our strategy while aggressively managing costs.

之前我提到，我們的穩健性讓我對我們的未來充滿信心，今天我依然如此。即使我們面臨一些前所未有的挑戰，伊士曼員工仍然堅定不移地致力於推動業績，我要感謝他們在積極管理成本的同時繼續執行我們的策略。

Big picture, we'll continue to focus on what we can control as we manage through this incredibly uncertain environment and remain committed to long-term, attractive earnings growth and sustainable value creation from our owners for all of our stakeholders.

總體而言，我們將繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情，以應對這個極其不確定的環境，並繼續致力於長期、有吸引力的盈利增長，以及為所有利益相關者創造可持續的價值。

At the same time, we are looking at every action we can take to increase performance this year and next. Focusing on engaging with customers who seek innovation, especially in the areas of sustainability which fuels our growth in new business revenue closes. Providing resources to grow in markets that have favorable trends and resilience in this environment. Planning to take additional productivity actions to accelerate top line growth to the bottom line. Building on our strong track record of disciplined portfolio management. We will continue to look for opportunities where optimization makes sense. Continuing to be focused on free cash flow generation as we manage working capital. And we'll be disciplined in how we deploy free cash flow.

同時，我們正在研究可以採取的一切措施來提高今年和明年的業績。專注於與尋求創新的客戶互動，特別是在永續發展領域，這推動了我們新業務收入的成長。提供資源，以在這種環境下具有良好趨勢和彈性的市場中實現成長。計劃採取額外的生產力行動來加速收入成長至利潤成長。以我們嚴謹的投資組合管理的良好記錄為基礎。我們將繼續尋找優化有意義的機會。在管理營運資金時，我們將繼續關注自由現金流的產生。我們將嚴格控制自由現金流的部署。

In addition, we're creating another big vector of growth with our new technologies for chemical recycling to enable circular economy, as we once again innovate solutions to improve the quality of life in a material way. And with this meaningful deceleration in industrial production reverses, as we know well, we'll be poised to create even more of our own growth from our innovation-driven growth model and accelerate earnings growth as the mix and fixed cost leverage becomes favorable in the recovery. That's why I'm confident we're going to win today and into the future.

此外，我們正在利用化學回收新技術創造另一個巨大的成長載體，以實現循環經濟，因為我們再次創新解決方案，以物質方式改善生活品質。眾所周知，隨著工業生產減速的明顯逆轉，我們將準備好從創新驅動的成長模式中創造更多的成長，並隨著經濟復甦中產品組合和固定成本槓桿變得有利而加速獲利成長。這就是為什麼我相信我們今天和將來都會取得勝利。

With that. I'll turn it back to Greg.

就這樣。我會把它交還給格雷格。

Okay. Thanks, Mark. As usual, we have a lot of people on the line this morning, and we'd like to get to as many questions as possible. (Operator Instructions)

好的。謝謝，馬克。像往常一樣，今天早上有很多人在線，我們希望盡可能多地回答他們的問題。（操作員指示）

With that, Matt, we are ready for questions.

馬特，我們已經準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) First, we'll go to David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）首先，我們去找德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, looking ahead to 2020, I know it's was early, but -- good. I know it's early for 2020, but can you still achieve, you think, your long-term 8% to 12% EPS growth in 2020 versus this past year?

馬克，展望 2020 年，我知道現在還早，但——很好。我知道 2020 年還為時過早，但您認為與去年相比，您還能在 2020 年實現長期每股收益 8% 至 12% 的成長嗎？

Thanks for the question, Dave. Good to hear from you. So we're not going to provide a quantitative bridge at this stage in this environment. But let me sort of walk you through how we think about it from where we are today.

謝謝你的提問，戴夫。很高興收到你的來信。因此，在目前的環境下，我們不會提供量化的橋樑。但讓我從現在的角度向大家介紹我們對此的看法。

So if the current economic conditions continue into next year, because we all know we have to make that assumption, we believe we'll deliver earnings growth going into '20 versus '19. And it really sort of breaks down into sort of 3 core buckets in how we do that.

因此，如果當前的經濟狀況持續到明年，因為我們都知道我們必須做出這樣的假設，我們相信我們將在 20 年實現獲利成長，而不是 2019 年。我們的做法其實可以分成 3 個核心部分。

First, innovation is always of the heart of our strategy, and you've seen a great demonstration of how that's created value for us in Advanced Materials. And we continue driving growth there as well as continue to get traction on some of innovation in AFP. Even though it's much more early stages at AFP, it's going to contribute like it has this year in some places.

首先，創新始終是我們策略的核心，您已經看到了創新如何在先進材料領域為我們創造價值的出色證明。我們將繼續推動那裡的成長，並繼續推動 AFP 的一些創新。儘管法新社還處於早期階段，但它將像今年在某些地方一樣做出貢獻。

It's also important to remember that we have a lot of markets that do have favorable growth across Advanced Materials, AFP and in CI as well as textiles. So there's a lot of places where we have good growth, whether it's care chemicals, water treatment, ag going back to a more normal seasonal demand, medical applications. So there is just good growth that's going to help. While we do have exposure in consumer discretionary around 45%, it's important to keep in mind that 55% is actually quite stable, consumables, et cetera.

同樣重要的是要記住，我們有許多市場在先進材料、AFP、CI 以及紡織品方面確實實現了良好的成長。因此，我們在許多領域都實現了良好的成長，無論是護理化學品、水處理、農業（恢復更正常的季節性需求）還是醫療應用。所以，好的成長才會有所幫助。雖然我們在非必需消費品方面的投資確實有 45% 左右，但重要的是要記住，55% 實際上是相當穩定的，例如消耗品等等。

The other part that's going to help on the demand side will be the vast majority of the destocking, if not all, should have played out by the end of this year. So at least on a relative basis, there's no way that we can see the amount of destocking that we've seen this year occur again next year. So that gives you some additional relief in demand and growth. So volume should be better on a variety of different fronts.

對需求方面有幫助的另一點是，絕大多數（如果不是全部的話）去庫存化應該在今年年底前完成。因此，至少從相對角度來看，我們不可能看到明年再次出現像今年那樣的去庫存現象。因此，這會為需求和成長帶來一些額外的緩解。因此，各個不同方面的數量都應該更好。

The second, of course, is what you can control as well as your cost structure. And as this industrial recession that we've been in for the last 9 to 12 months continues to drag out, we know that we also have to start taking more additional actions on productivity. So we'll start looking at how we build on what we've done in this year. We've taken out a net $40 million of costs down in manufacturing this year. As that annualizes into next year and if we have volume, equal to or better than this year, that's going to start to flow through and be a benefit.

第二，當然是您可以控制什麼以及您的成本結構。隨著過去 9 到 12 個月以來我們所處的工業衰退持續下去，我們知道我們還必須開始採取更多額外的措施來提高生產力。因此，我們將開始研究如何鞏固我們今年所取得的成就。今年我們在製造業方面淨削減了 4000 萬美元的成本。隨著這一數字進入明年，如果我們的交易量等於或超過今年，那麼這將開始流入並帶來好處。

We're going to start looking at our asset footprint and whether there's opportunities to optimize our asset footprint and take out chunks of costs. We're going to look at how we get much more productive with digital investments. We've made choices to invest a lot in digital this year in productivity and commercial execution. And already seeing a lot of benefits that's paying for those investments this year, and we'll start seeing the benefits on a net basis next year and there's more investments we're going to continue making.

我們將開始審視我們的資產足跡，以及是否有機會優化我們的資產足跡並消除大量成本。我們將研究如何透過數位投資提高生產力。我們今年選擇在生產力和商業執行方面對數位化進行大量投資。今年我們已經看到了這些投資帶來的許多收益，明年我們將開始看到淨收益，並且我們將繼續進行更多投資。

And there's a broad set of manufacturing initiatives that we're doing on productivity that are giving benefits to the success we had this year that will continue to increase the benefits next year around maintenance in earnings and cash as well as some other activities.

我們在生產力方面正在實施一系列廣泛的製造業舉措，這些舉措為我們今年的成功帶來了益處，並將在明年繼續增加我們在盈利和現金維持以及其他一些活動方面的益處。

But to be clear, we're going to continue investing in innovation. So next year, we'll spend more on innovation than we did this year. We have so many huge innovation programs going commercial in AM and especially in AFP. We have to provide the resources to close that business with customers and ensure we get the benefits of those investments. So that's the second bucket.

但要明確的是，我們將繼續投資創新。因此，明年我們在創新方面的投入將比今年更多。我們有許多大型創新專案在 AM 尤其是 AFP 領域實現商業化。我們必須提供資源來與客戶達成業務並確保我們從這些投資中獲益。這是第二個桶子。

The third bucket is strong free cash flow. Even in this tough environment, we're generating incredibly strong free cash flow at a very high conversion rate. And we have every expectation we're going to do the same thing next year. And we'll continue to be disciplined in how we deploy that cash in dividends, share repurchases, debt repayment and bolt-on to where it makes sense.

第三個是強勁的自由現金流。即使在這種艱難的環境中，我們仍然以非常高的轉換率產生了令人難以置信的強勁自由現金流。我們完全有信心明年我們還會做同樣的事情。我們將繼續嚴格按照規定部署現金，用於股利、股票回購、債務償還和合理的附加用途。

So that's sort of in relative current economic conditions. If there's a trade war settlement, we'll do a lot better than that. And if there's recession, obviously, where demand is more challenged, we have additional levers we can pull to manage costs. And the innovation will still create some growth to offset those challenges, and I still think that a lot of destocking is behind us.

這與當前的經濟狀況有關。如果貿易戰能夠解決，我們會做得更好。顯然，如果出現經濟衰退，需求將面臨更大挑戰，我們可以採取額外的措施來管理成本。創新仍將創造一些成長來抵消這些挑戰，我仍然認為大量的去庫存已經過去。

The thing to keep in mind is if there is a recovery, the leverage on the upside is equal to the leverage on the downside that we've seen in the last 9 months. So mix, volume, asset utilization will come back in a mirror image of what we've been through that could provide substantial upside.

要記住的是，如果出現復甦，上行槓桿率將等於我們在過去 9 個月中看到的下行槓桿率。因此，組合、數量、資產利用率將會以我們所經歷的鏡像形式回歸，這可能會帶來巨大的上升空間。

Very helpful. And just one more thing for both you and Curt. Can you comment on the recent Moody's action to put you on negative watch and how you are thinking maybe about debt reduction versus buybacks next year? Would you be focused more on debt reduction just to remove this issue completely from the table rather than keep on buying back stock?

非常有幫助。還有一件事要告訴你和 Curt。您能否對穆迪最近將您列入負面觀察名單的舉動做出評論？您明年對削減債務還是回購債務有何看法？您是否會更專注於削減債務，以徹底解決這個問題，而不是繼續回購股票？

Yes. The recent change to negative watch really doesn't significantly change our capital allocation philosophy. As you would expect, we have a very open dialogue with our rating agencies about our plans and expectation. They understand we remain committed to our investment-grade grade credit rating, which is, again, not only important to us but many of our investors that I speak with.

是的。最近轉為負面觀察其實並沒有顯著改變我們的資本配置理念。正如您所期望的，我們與評級機構就我們的計劃和期望進行了非常公開的對話。他們明白我們仍然致力於我們的投資級信用評級，這不僅對我們很重要，而且對與我交談的許多投資者也很重要。

So we'll remain disciplined with our approach to capital allocation, which '19 includes $300 million of deleveraging. If the environment continues to be challenging as we go into 2020, we'll probably do a similar amount of delevering at a minimum. I imagine, over the next couple of months, there'll be a few debates internally and externally around what should be the amount of delevering. And I look forward to your opinion, David, and others on that topic. But regardless of what we do, we will remain on a path of improving our overall debt and EBITDA ratios and further strengthening our balance sheet.

因此，我們將繼續嚴格執行資本配置方法，其中包括 2019 年 3 億美元的去槓桿。如果進入 2020 年，環境依然充滿挑戰，我們可能至少會進行類似程度的去槓桿。我想，在接下來的幾個月裡，內部和外部都會圍繞著去槓桿的幅度進行一些爭論。大衛，我期待您和其他人就該主題發表意見。但無論我們做什麼，我們都將繼續改善我們的整體債務和 EBITDA 比率，並進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

A couple of other things I'll just remind everyone, and David, I know you know this well, is we have no material debt maturities over the next couple of years. We generate great cash flows, even in a recessionary environment. And then we also have plenty of access to liquidity. So we're well positioned to manage through this uncertain economic environment. So I feel very good about that.

我還要提醒大家幾件事，大衛，我知道你很清楚這一點，那就是未來幾年我們沒有重大債務到期。即使在經濟衰退的環境下，我們也能產生龐大的現金流。而且我們還可以擁有充足的流動性。因此，我們有能力應對這種不確定的經濟環境。所以我對此感覺非常好。

And also a reminder that a disciplined capital allocation approach, whether that's putting cash to share repurchases, bolt-on acquisitions or even debt paydown, are all viable ways of creating value for our shareholders. So we're going to remain committed to our investment-grade credit rating. We have a pathway to continue to improve our credit metrics, and then that's consistent with our commitment around a disciplined capital allocation philosophy.

同時提醒大家，嚴謹的資本配置方法，無論是將現金用於股票回購、附加收購或償還債務，都是為股東創造價值的可行方法。因此，我們將繼續致力於我們的投資等級信用評級。我們有一條途徑來繼續改善我們的信用指標，這與我們圍繞嚴格的資本配置理念的承諾是一致的。

And our next question will come from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

I had a quick question on your tire additives business. You had those duties on Chinese tires. How is that trade flow impacting your China business? And is there an offsetting benefit in U.S. and Europe business?

我對你們的輪胎添加劑業務有一個快速的問題。你們對中國輪胎徵收了這些關稅。這種貿易流動對您的中國業務有何影響？美國和歐洲的業務是否有抵銷效益？

So yes, the tire duties in the U.S. and in Europe had a real impact on tire demand in AFP. What happened is, and this is really at the customer level, they were shipping a lot of tires and it was found that they were dumping in both Europe and U.S. So all those tires got backed up into China. And there's too many tire companies in China, so there has been a pretty aggressive fight there. But trade flows rebalance, so these Chinese companies will also build plants in Southeast Asia. So they just shift their production efforts to go into Europe and the U.S. from there.

所以，是的，美國和歐洲的輪胎稅確實對法新社的輪胎需求產生了影響。實際情況是，這確實發生在客戶層面，他們運送了大量輪胎，結果發現他們正在向歐洲和美國傾銷。因此，所有這些輪胎都回流到了中國。中國的輪胎公司太多了，所以競爭相當激烈。但貿易流動重新平衡，因此這些中國公司也將在東南亞建廠。因此他們只是將生產重心轉移到歐洲和美國。

So it has, overall, created a lot of pressure for all the tire companies. You can see that by some of the big multinational tire company announcement recently about the actions they are taking to improve their cost structure. But for us, it did create predominantly a very competitive situation among additive suppliers into tires in China, and we felt that impact both in volume and in pricing, which is why we've had the pressure in that business. And that ultimately moves across the globe, to some degree.

因此，總體而言，這給所有輪胎公司帶來了巨大的壓力。您可以從一些大型跨國輪胎公司最近宣布的改善成本結構的舉措中看到這一點。但對我們來說，它確實在中國輪胎添加劑供應商之間造成了非常激烈的競爭，我們在產量和價格上都感受到了這種影響，這就是我們在該業務中面臨壓力的原因。並且從某種程度上來說，這最終會波及全球。

And a question for Curt. Curt, you just talked about potential more deleveraging in 2020 if the economy remains weak. If the economy remains weak, would you try to get some growth through M&A as well and get some inorganic growth? I know that doesn't sit well with deleveraging. But given the choices, how would you allocate capital if valuations come down and M&A looks attractive?

還有一個問題想問 Curt。科特，您剛才談到，如果經濟持續疲軟，2020 年可能會進一步去槓桿。如果經濟持續疲軟，您是否會嘗試透過併購來實現一些成長並獲得一些無機成長？我知道這與去槓桿化並不相符。但在有選擇的情況下，如果估值下降且併購看起來有吸引力，您將如何分配資本？

Sure. Well, if you think about that strategic cash that we have after we funded our own organic growth, we love the opportunity to pursue opportunities of growth in bolt-on acquisitions through M&A. And I think we would just have to do that in a smart way. I've always told the business teams that if they find a great, attractive bolt-on acquisition or acquisition in general, we'll find a way to finance it, and we'll find a way to finance it that's still consistent with our investment-grade credit rating.

當然。好吧，如果你想想我們在資助自身有機成長之後所擁有的策略性現金，我們喜歡透過併購來尋求附加收購的成長機會。我認為我們必須以一種聰明的方式來做到這一點。我一直告訴業務團隊，如果他們發現一項偉大的、有吸引力的附加收購或一般收購，我們會找到一種融資方式，而且我們會找到一種與我們的投資級信用評級相符的融資方式。

And your next question will come from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

A question on Chemical Intermediates. The agricultural impact on the amines, obviously, we know it's a tough season in the U.S. Do we need to lap that? Meaning, do you need the channel inventory to be drawn down before you're going to sell back through so this can be an issue all the way through the middle of next year? Or are is it already sort of played out?

關於化學中間體的問題。農業對胺類的影響顯然是眾所周知的，這對美國來說是一個艱難的季節。我們需要解決這個問題嗎？意思是，您是否需要在銷售之前減少通路庫存，這樣這可能會持續到明年年中？或者說它已經有點結束了？

Vincent, from what we can see and what our customers are telling us, one of the volume challenges we're having in the back half of this year is their efforts to take their inventory down given the weak season we had in this year. Our belief is they will achieve those goals and get back to sort of what is a sort of normal production strategy next year, and we'll see the benefits of that demand.

文森特，從我們所看到的以及客戶告訴我們的情況來看，今年下半年我們面臨的產量挑戰之一是，考慮到今年的淡季，他們努力減少庫存。我們相信他們將實現這些目標並在明年恢復正常的生產策略，我們將看到這種需求帶來的好處。

Okay. And can I also ask you, the corporate and other costs appeared to be up a lot in the quarter. Was there a reason for that? And how should we think about that number next year?

好的。我也可以問您一下，本季公司成本和其他成本似乎大幅上漲。有什麼原因嗎？那麼明年我們該如何看待這個數字呢？

Yes. So if you think about the year-over-year impact in the other segment, the primary driver has been that higher pension cost that we talked about, the $30 million or roughly $0.20 impact. And most of that, which is really driven by the discount rate as well as the lower assets we started the year, that's really what drilled the delta. Well, still great management of our cost and innovation programs to the other areas. So it's really the pension cost.

是的。因此，如果您考慮其他部門的同比影響，主要驅動因素就是我們談到的更高的退休金成本，即 3000 萬美元或大約 ​​0.20 美元的影響。其中大部分實際上是由貼現率以及年初較低的資產所驅動，這才是造成三角洲擴張的真正原因。嗯，我們對其他領域的成本和創新計劃的管理仍然很好。所以這其實是退休金成本。

As I think about 2020, a little early, but you're already seeing the discount rates coming down. So that could very well improve our pension cost next year. We'll see if that holds true as we finish out the year.

我認為 2020 年還為時過早，但您已經看到折扣率下降。因此這很可能會改善我們明年的退休金成本。我們將在今年年底時看看這是否屬實。

Next, we will hear from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將聽取摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas 的演講。

On your cash flow statement, there's been $165 million positive swing for the first 9 months in "other items net". What is that? And does that reverse next year or continue? Can you provide some elaboration?

在您的現金流量表上，「其他項目淨額」前 9 個月出現了 1.65 億美元的正向變動。那是什麼？明年這種情況會逆轉還是會繼續？能詳細說明一下嗎？

Sure. Really, there's 2 main drivers in that other cash items, Jeff, that are kind of an anomaly this year. First, last year, in the end of third quarter of '18, we had a $65 million insurance receivable that we collected the following month. Obviously, we don't have the kind of receivable this year. And then secondly, this year, we actually have a higher restructuring accrual, higher than last year because of the events that took place early in this year, and that's roughly $25 million.

當然。確實，其他現金項目有兩個主要驅動因素，傑夫，今年這是一種異常現象。首先，去年，也就是 2018 年第三季末，我們有一筆 6,500 萬美元的保險應收款，並於次月收回。顯然，我們今年沒有這種應收帳款。其次，由於今年年初發生的事件，我們今年的重組應計費用實際上比去年更高，約 2500 萬美元。

So those are the 2 main drivers of note. The other things are just the normal things you see resulting from timing of tax payments, other miscellaneous payables, receivables. So you shouldn't see this magnitude of change next year just because of those 2 things I just mentioned.

所以這是值得注意的兩個主要驅動因素。其他事項只是您看到的因報稅時間、其他雜項應付款項、應收款而產生的正常事項。因此，僅僅因為我剛才提到的兩件事，明年你不應該看到如此大的變化。

Okay. In listening to your conference call, you spoke about competitive -- increased competitive activity in a number of businesses, in Chemical Intermediates and in your AFP segment. And at least to my ears, that sounds new. And you seem to tie it to slowdown in demand and trade difficulties. Can you elaborate on your competitive position in a number of businesses where it seems that the competitive activity has intensified? Can you talk about why that's the case and how long you think it will maintain itself?

好的。在聽取電話會議時，您談到了競爭——化學中間體和 AFP 部門等多個行業的競爭活動日益激烈。至少在我看來，這聽起來很新鮮。您似乎將其與需求放緩和貿易困難聯繫起來。您能否詳細說明您在一些競爭活動似乎已經加劇的業務中的競爭地位？您能談談為什麼會出現這種情況嗎？您認為這種情況會持續多久？

Sure, Jeff. It's a good question, and I'd love to address it. So first of all, Advanced Materials, I think, is looking exactly as a great specialty business should. It's got demand challenges. Obviously, there's competition. But the innovation is allowing it to offset those market challenges and deliver strong growth. Especially when you think about the high consumer discretionary spend and benefit from raw material flow-throughs, you can sort of defend the value in your pricing. So that business is on track and looks like it should.

當然，傑夫。這是個好問題，我很樂意回答。首先，我認為先進材料公司正展現出一個偉大的專業企業應有的形象。它面臨著需求挑戰。顯然，存在競爭。但創新使其能夠抵消這些市場挑戰並實現強勁成長。特別是當您考慮到消費者可自由支配的高額支出以及原材料流通帶來的收益時，您就可以在定價中捍衛其價值。因此，業務進展順利，看起來也應該如此。

And as Curt mentioned in the prepared remarks, about 2/3 of the revenue of AFP looks just like AM, right? It's got good, strong market growth in a bunch of end markets. Even though it does have headwinds in the macro economy, especially in automotive, it's offsetting it with expanding spreads. And if you back out currency, the earnings are even closer to just year-over-year flat. So that business -- that part of the portfolio is doing quite well. And then you've got this 1/3 that goes to your question where there's increased competitive activity. And obviously, we have some of that in CI and a few places.

正如 Curt 在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，AFP 大約 2/3 的收入看起來像 AM，對嗎？它在許多終端市場都取得了良好、強勁的市場成長。儘管宏觀經濟確實面臨阻力，尤其是汽車產業，但它正透過擴大利差來抵銷這種阻力。如果以貨幣計算，收益甚至接近與去年同期持平。因此，該業務——投資組合中的這一部分錶現相當不錯。然後你就得到了這 1/3 的數據，這與你的問題有關，即競爭活動增加。顯然，我們在 CI 和一些地方有一些這樣的產品。

On the AFP front, the 3 areas we identified -- tires, adhesives and formic acid, have that dynamic. The dynamic's a little bit will be different in each business. So in tires, really, it's a demand-driven event, as I mentioned earlier, where you've got a drop in demand. It's increasing competitive activity. And of course, we have our new next-generation Crystex we've launched. We have other innovation in tire resin, et cetera, to offset some of that pressure. But it's just too early stage on the new Crystex launch to sort of offset it. And so you've got pressure in earnings, both in the volume and the macro as well as in spreads.

在 AFP 方面，我們確定的三個領域——輪胎、黏合劑和甲酸，都具有這種動態。每個行業的動態都會略有不同。因此，對於輪胎而言，這確實是一個需求驅動的事件，正如我之前提到的，需求有所下降。這正在增加競爭活動。當然，我們也推出了新一代 Crystex。我們在輪胎樹脂等方面有其他創新，可以抵銷部分壓力。但 Crystex 新品發表仍處於初期階段，因此無法抵銷此影響。因此，您在獲利方面面臨壓力，包括交易量、宏觀和利差兩方面。

Same is true in Adhesives, but which is more of a supply-driven event. The demand is a little bit more stable there. But you've had the new supply, which we've been talking about for a while. Similar, we've got innovation launch there to offset it with UltraPure, which is this nonemissive, low-odor or no-odor resin, great inventions in amorphous polyolefins that we're launching, but not sufficient in this environment to offset some of that pressure. And formic acid, a more narrow story of just the competitor that was shut down in China that came back. And it would've been fine or mitigated if demand for swines was still going well on in China to consume that new capacity. But when the swine population's off 25% to 40%, you've got a problem.

黏合劑產業也是如此，但它更多的是一個由供應驅動的事件。那裡的需求稍微穩定一些。但你已經有了新的供應，我們已經談了一段時間了。類似地，我們在那裡推出了創新產品來抵消它，UltraPure 是一種無排放、低氣味或無氣味的樹脂，這是我們推出的無定形聚烯烴的偉大發明，但在這種環境下還不足以抵消部分壓力。而甲酸的故事則更為狹隘，只是說這家在中國關閉的競爭對手又捲土重來。如果中國對生豬的需求仍然旺盛，足以消耗新增產能，那麼問題就解決了，或者說問題得到緩解。但當豬的數量減少 25% 到 40% 時，就會出現問題。

So overall, what you've got is a situation where this 1/3 is not performing where we'd like. And we recognize that this is not the kind of stability in overall AFP that we wanted to deliver. So we're going to start looking at all options on how we address this. Those options could be how do we restructure some of these businesses or how to partner with them or potential divestment.

所以總的來說，你所面臨的情況是這 1/3 的表現並不如我們所願。我們體認到這並不是我們想要實現的法新社整體穩定。因此，我們將開始研究解決這一問題的所有方案。這些選擇可能是我們如何重組其中一些業務或如何與他們合作或潛在的撤資。

But it's important to keep in mind that a lot of considerations have to go into how you make portfolio decisions like this. So you've got to make sure you're not overacting to sort of short-term macroeconomic problems, make sure you really assess what is the innovation potential or other improvement opportunities you could pursue. And of course, you have to think about timing of this kind of decisions. But we're going to start doing that.

但重要的是要記住，在做出這樣的投資組合決策時需要考慮許多因素。因此，你必須確保自己不會對短期宏觀經濟問題反應過度，確保自己真正評估可以追求的創新潛力或其他改進機會。當然，你必須考慮做出這種決定的時機。但我們將開始這麼做。

CI's critical vertical integration, we haven't changed our view on the value of it. But we're going to look at asset optimization opportunities there to improve our ability to be more sort of stable. RGP is a great example of an investment we made last year that reduced our ethylene exposure that's been quite beneficial this year. And we're going to try and think what else we can do.

CI 的關鍵垂直整合，我們對其價值的看法沒有改變。但我們將尋找資產優化機會，以提高我們的穩定能力。RGP 是我們去年進行的投資的一個很好的例子，它減少了我們的乙烯暴露，這對今年來說是相當有益的。我們將盡力思考還能做些什麼。

So we do recognize we got some volatility. The pressures in CI, I think, is well covered sort of competitive pressure with acetyls and olefins. But we're not standing still. We're going to take action and see what we can do to improve things.

所以我們確實認識到我們存在一些波動。我認為 CI 中的壓力很好地涵蓋了乙醯基和烯烴的競爭壓力。但我們並沒有停滯不前。我們將採取行動，看看能做些什麼來改善現狀。

Next question will come from Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

You had stated like backdrop continues to worsen due to trade uncertainties, at least is one of the key drivers. Are volumes actually shifting on the headline that you're seeing or just pointing to general malaise? Because I'm trying to gauge how sensitive your top line is. And you had mentioned orders picked up in October briefly, but then would that be consistent with the trade discussion and possible traction there? Or is that just maybe a one-off?

您曾說過，由於貿易不確定性，背景狀況持續惡化，至少這是主要驅動因素之一。您所看到的標題中的數量是否真的發生了變化，還是僅僅表明普遍存在不適？因為我想判斷你的頂線有多敏感。您曾提到 10 月訂單量短暫回升，但這是否與貿易討論和可能的進展一致？或者這只是一次性事件？

Well, first, I've learned my lesson about predicting the macro economy this year and exactly what to interpret from any order pattern in 1 month. I think there's a lot of volatility and uncertainty out there where you go back and forth between an escalation and trade war in August, where there was Phase 1 progress that's debatable in October. There's just a lot of uncertainty that's impacting business and consumer confidence out there, especially in China and how that's impacted their economy and the sort of global effect that has is places like Europe and Southeast Asia, so dependent on export to China, and you can even now see it impacting sort of U.S. industrial activity.

好吧，首先，我已經吸取了關於預測今年宏觀經濟的教訓，並且知道如何從 1 個月內的任何訂單模式中準確解讀。我認為，目前存在著許多波動性和不確定性，8 月份，貿易戰和升級問題反覆出現，而 10 月份第一階段談判的進展也存在爭議。有許多不確定性正在影響企業和消費者信心，尤其是在中國，這些不確定性如何影響他們的經濟，以及對歐洲和東南亞等依賴對中國出口的地區產生的全球影響，你現在甚至可以看到它正在影響美國的工業活動。

So it's a little hard to predict how this is going to trend. But I would tell you that as we look at the impact that our guidance and performance has had through the year, it is entirely a volume mix story. Where we were in July, we were expecting the economy to be stable relative to the second quarter, as we said. Obviously, things escalated, and that's why our volume forecast came off -- our volumes were actually off a bit, as Curt mentioned, in 3Q. And now as we go into 4Q, the lower activity plus normal seasonality leads to this decline in volume. But it's a little hard to interpret.

因此，很難預測這一趨勢將如何發展。但我想告訴你，當我們回顧我們的指導和業績在全年產生的影響時，這完全是一個數量組合的故事。正如我們所說，我們預計七月份經濟將相對於第二季保持穩定。顯然，事情逐漸升級，這就是我們的銷售預測偏離的原因——正如 Curt 所提到的，我們的銷售在第三季度實際上有所下降。現在進入第四季度，較低的活動加上正常的季節性導致交易量下降。但這有點難解釋。

Okay. And if I look at A&FP, EBIT margins are down 210 bps in 2Q, like 260 bps in 3Q. How much of this is actually due to, perhaps, poor utilization rates versus competition on price versus volumetric declines? If you can give me some clarity in that.

好的。如果我看一下 A&FP，息稅前利潤率在第二季下降了 210 個基點，在第三季下降了 260 個基點。這其中有多少可能是因為利用率低、價格競爭激烈、產量下降所造成的？如果你能給我一些澄清的話。

Yes. So the entire -- yes, for AFP in total, the entirety of the hit is a volume mix and asset utilization story. So if you look at the total segment altogether, spreads are about flat year-over-year. Obviously, there's a bit of a currency hit, but it's much more moderate in the second half of the year. So it is totally a volume mix hit on the impact that has on variable margin as well as the impact it has on asset utilization. But as I said, it's sort of a 2/3 - 1/3 story, where we have improving spreads in some places and compressing spreads in others, netting out to flat. So that's not the margin story. Yes.

是的。所以整體而言 — — 是的，對於法新社而言，整個打擊都是數量組合和資產利用率的故事。因此，如果從整體來看，利差與去年同期基本持平。顯然，貨幣受到了一些衝擊，但下半年的衝擊要溫和得多。因此，這完全是數量組合對可變利潤率以及資產利用率的影響。但正如我所說，這是一個 2/3 - 1/3 的故事，我們在某些​​地方改善利差，在其他地方壓縮利差，最終達到持平。所以這不是利潤的故事。是的。

Next, we will from James Sheehan with SunTrust.

接下來，我們請 SunTrust 的 James Sheehan 發言。

So you just referenced, in AFP, about 1/3 of the business was not performing the way you would have liked. Could also assess what proportion of the Taminco business falls into that category as well?

所以您剛才提到，在法新社，大約有 1/3 的業務表現不如您所願。還可以評估 Taminco 業務中有多少比例屬於這一類別？

So the only part of Taminco that's in the 1/3 is formic acid. So when we bought Taminco, we were very excited about the alkylamines platform and the value of that integrated platform into a wide range of end markets. They had acquired a small business in formic acid about a year ahead of buying Taminco for us. That was a business we'd actually looked at and didn't find very attractive, but it was just part of the deal that we had to accept. So it's a business that just has some competitive challenges, but it's a very small part of Taminco.

因此，Taminco 中唯一佔 1/3 的部分是甲酸。因此，當我們收購 Taminco 時，我們對烷基胺平台以及該整合平台在廣泛終端市場中的價值感到非常興奮。在我們收購 Taminco 之前大約一年，他們就收購了一家小型甲酸企業。我們確實考慮過這個業務，但發現它並不是很有吸引力，但這只是交易的一部分，我們必須接受。因此，這是一個面臨一些競爭挑戰的業務，但它只是 Taminco 的一小部分。

And if I could add, some of the positives that Mark referenced in the positive 2/3 were also the Taminco acquisition.

而且如果我可以補充的話，馬克在積極的 2/3 中提到的一些積極因素也與 Taminco 的收購有關。

Yes. With tremendous growth in care chemicals, in water treatment, and long term, we've had great growth in the ag business as well over in the CI side from Taminco. It's been a great acquisition.

是的。隨著護理化學品、水處理和長期的快速發展，Taminco 的 CI 業務以及農業業務也取得了長足的發展。這是一次偉大的收購。

And on the chemical recycling projects, you referenced several hundred million dollars of revenue ultimately. How quickly could you start to see commercial revenues from that? What segment will you report those results? And if you could just comment on long-term project returns, if we were to compare the expected returns of those recycling initiatives to other more traditional product innovations, is the ROI higher, lower or about the same?

關於化學回收項目，您提到最終將帶來數億美元的收入。您多久能開始從中看到商業收入？您將在哪個部分報告這些結果？如果您可以評論長期專案回報，如果我們將這些回收計劃的預期回報與其他更傳統的產品創新進行比較，投資回報率是更高、更低還是大致相同？

Sure. So we're incredibly excited about what we can do on the circular economy. For those of you who've been paying attention in this industry, you know in the last 18 to 24 months, sustainability and environmental sensitivity about the impact we're having in the environment, especially with plastics in the ocean and the issues with landfill, et cetera, is one of the biggest disruptive macro trends I've seen in a decade. And it's either a great opportunity as it is for Eastman or a challenge as it might be for others who are heavily in single-use plastics.

當然。因此，我們對於在循環經濟領域所能做的事情感到無比興奮。對於那些一直關注這個行業的人來說，你們知道在過去的 18 到 24 個月裡，永續性和環境敏感性，即我們對環境的影響，特別是海洋中的塑膠和垃圾掩埋場的問題等等，是我十年來見過的最大的顛覆性宏觀趨勢之一。對於伊士曼來說，這是一個很好的機會；而對於其他大量使用一次性塑膠的公司來說，這可能是一個挑戰。

Fortunately, for us, we got out of PET in 2011. So we're not doing circular economy to defend our existing business in single-use plastics, all of our investments are to improve our competitive offerings and more durable applications and more specialty applications by adding recycled content into it to deliver net growth. And so we'll be commercial, as we said, in the fourth quarter this year with both technologies, the one we announced this week as well as the polyester one by the end of the year. And that will be incorporating products and driving revenue growth for us next year into the first quarter.

幸運的是，我們在 2011 年退出了 PET。因此，我們開展循環經濟並不是為了捍衛我們現有的一次性塑膠業務，我們所有的投資都是為了透過添加再生材料來改善我們的競爭產品、更耐用的應用和更專業的應用，從而實現淨增長。正如我們所說，我們將在今年第四季將這兩項技術投入商業化，包括我們本周宣布的技術以及年底前宣布的聚酯技術。這將整合產品並推動我們明年第一季的營收成長。

Customers are incredibly excited, especially in the luxury world. So think cosmetic packaging, high-end ophthalmic sunglasses where our polymers go, our textile business. Even though biocontent is highly valued by our customers. The womenswear fashion industries are extremely focused on how to close the loop. A lot of textiles, a phenomenal amount of textiles end up in landfill, especially with fast fashion. And so they want to close the loop, and our unique CRT technology allows us to actually take back textiles, garments and recycle them, not just wastes, single-use plastic. We can even take carpet back. So we can solve a lot of real, serious problems that other technologies can't do. So we're really excited about it. It's just a great opportunity.

顧客們非常興奮，尤其是奢侈品領域的顧客。想想化妝品包裝、高端眼鏡太陽眼鏡（我們的聚合物應用領域）以及我們的紡織業務。儘管生物內容受到我們的客戶高度重視。女裝時尚產業極為注重如何實現閉環。許多紡織品，大量的紡織品最終被填埋，尤其是快時尚。因此他們想要形成閉環，而我們獨特的 CRT 技術使我們能夠真正回收紡織品、服裝並進行再利用，而不僅僅是廢物和一次性塑膠。我們甚至可以拿回地毯。因此我們可以解決許多其他技術無法解決的現實、嚴重的問題。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。這真是一個絕佳的機會。

And this is just the beginning, to be clear. These first 2 steps are very incremental capital and modifying our gasifier with the CRT to sort of take plastic waste instead of coal and turn that into cellulosic products. Same thing with polyester. The first step is fairly modest, so the ROIs are extremely high. There are bigger investments we can make to do a lot more than what we're going to be in the first step. But even when I look at those capitals, returns are well above a typical investment project. Because we're leveraging the products we already make and already sell into existing markets. So it's a drop-in replacement just now has recycled content, so they don't have to do qualification.

需要明確的是，這只是一個開始。前兩個步驟是非常增量的資本，並使用 CRT 改造我們的氣化爐，以便利用塑膠廢物而不是煤，並將其轉化為纖維素產品。聚酯纖維也是一樣。第一步相當溫和，因此投資報酬率極高。我們可以進行更大的投資，做比第一步更多的事。但即使當我看這些資本時，回報也遠高於典型的投資項目。因為我們正在利用我們已經生產並且已經銷售到現有市場的產品。因此，它是一種直接替代品，含有可回收成分，因此他們不需要進行資格認證。

The next question will come from John Roberts with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

Mark, in your concluding comments on scenarios, it sounded like your October orders actually picked up from September. Why would that have been?

馬克，在你對各種情景的總結性評論中，聽起來你十月份的訂單實際上比九月有所回升。為什麼會這樣呢？

What I'd say is, actually, October orders are holding similar to September where they normally start trending off seasonally. So I don't want to overstate the October order claim, but it's certainly coming in a bit better than we had forecasted. I think it's just customers are managing and growing with a little more optimism. And we're holding in reasonably well. I can't say there's any specific reason I can point to at this stage. And we really have to watch out for where December plays out this year with this uncertainty, it could go either way.

我想說的是，實際上，十月的訂單情況與九月類似，九月的訂單通常會開始呈現季節性趨勢。因此，我不想誇大十月份的訂單量，但它肯定比我們預測的要好一些。我認為客戶只是以更樂觀的態度來管理和成長。我們的狀況還不錯。目前我還不能指出任何具體的原因。我們確實必須專注於今年 12 月的走勢，因為存在這種不確定性，情況可能會朝著任何一個方向發展。

And then, secondly, do you expect IMO 2020 to have an impact on spreads between refinery-grade propylene and chemical-grade propylene?

其次，您是否預期 IMO 2020 會對煉油級丙烯和化學級丙烯之間的價差產生影響？

As we look at it, we're not seeing that as a significant event. I know there's a lot written about it and a lot of opinions about it. Actually, our RGP investment, I think, helps us a bit and gives us more flexibly on that scenario.

我們認為這並不是什麼重大事件。我知道關於它的文章很多，觀點也很多。實際上，我認為我們的 RGP 投資對我們有點幫助，並讓我們在這種情況下更加靈活。

Next, we will hear from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

接下來，我們將聽取 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy 的演講。

Mark, when you look across your portfolio, do you see opportunities for rationalization of assets? It sounds like some of the margin pressure is utilization-related, quite understandably given the environment. So are there opportunities to consolidate plans? Or would that be in a mistake because you'll need the capacity when the macros start to cooperate again in the future?

馬克，當你審視你的投資組合時，你是否看到了資產合理化的機會？聽起來，部分利潤壓力與利用率有關，考慮到目前的環境，這是可以理解的。那麼，是否有機會整合計劃？或者這是一個錯誤，因為當巨集將來再次開始合作時您將需要容量？

So we are looking for opportunities like that. We're not going to talk about it on this call, but we have several asset options under investigation for that reason. But our focus is always on innovation being the core thing. But in this kind of environment, you have to look at every lever you can to improve productivity and your cost position to compete.

所以我們正在尋找這樣的機會。我們不會在這次電話會議上談論這個問題，但出於這個原因，我們正在調查幾項資產選擇。但我們的核心重點始終是創新。但在這種環境下，您必須考慮一切可能的手段來提高生產力和成本優勢，從而保持競爭力。

Okay. And then, secondly, for Curt. It seems as though you've whittled the capital budget to some degree. Maybe you can talk about what has changed there and what your preliminary views of the trajectory could be looking into 2020 and beyond.

好的。其次，對 Curt 來說。看起來好像您已經在一定程度上削減了資本預算。也許您可以談談那裡發生了哪些變化，以及您對 2020 年及以後的發展軌蹟的初步看法。

Sure. On the capital front, what we've been doing is just quietly making some adjustments to the investments we make, mostly of those are growth investments, just because the environment, when we're not quite sure when we're going to need that new capacity. We've already added a large portion of capacity to support our growth this year and last year. We've kind of just tweaked things because we can move things out just because the demand environment is not there right now. And then we got a great capital team that's also being disciplined on the amount of support capital that's needed to run of this company in this kind of environment.

當然。在資本方面，我們一直在悄悄地對我們的投資進行一些調整，其中大部分是成長投資，只是因為環境，我們不太確定何時需要新的產能。我們已經增加了很大一部分產能來支持今年和去年的成長。我們對一些事情進行了調整，因為目前的需求環境還不存在，所以我們可以把事情移出去。然後，我們擁有一支優秀的資本團隊，該團隊也嚴格控制在這種環境下經營公司所需的支援資本金額。

Looking at next year, I'd probably still keep it right now in the same range we're at today. But a lot of it is going to depend on what the economic environment is. If it's starting to improve, we might pick up our capital a bit. If it deteriorates, we may slow down a little bit more.

展望明年，我可能仍會將其保持在與今天相同的範圍內。但很大程度取決於經濟環境。如果情況開始好轉，我們可能會增加一些資本。如果情況惡化，我們可能會進一步放慢速度。

Your next question will come from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

I want to think about the fourth quarter and your implied guidance there because it's looking like it's the lowest EPS ex CGI that you've done in the last 5 years. And obviously, volume/mix kind of a big part of that. And so I'm trying to think what that range is. I mean your volume/mix has been improving throughout the year. It was down 6% Q1, down 5% Q2, down 3% this past quarter. What are you baking in to get to this low level for 4Q?

我想考慮一下第四季度以及您對此的隱含指導，因為它看起來是您在過去 5 年裡所做的最低 EPS（不含 CGI）。顯然，音量/混合是其中很重要的一部分。所以我正在嘗試思考這個範圍是多少。我的意思是你的音量/組合全年都在提高。第一季下降了 6%，第二季下降了 5%，上個季度下降了 3%。您採取了哪些措施才使得第四季的業績達到如此低的水平？

So Frank, I mean, part of where we're coming from is we assume the -- we always do this, to some degree, is assume the current activity. Economic and macro economically is the basis for our forecast, so obviously it moderated through the third quarter. And then we're adding normal seasonality onto that lower base. I mean that's how the forecast got constructed.

所以弗蘭克，我的意思是，我們的部分出發點是我們假設——我們總是這樣做，在某種程度上，假設當前的活動。經濟和宏觀經濟是我們預測的基礎，因此顯然第三季有所緩和。然後，我們在這個較低的基礎上添加正常的季節性。我的意思是，預測就是這樣形成的。

In addition to that, you've got lower capacity utilization because volumes this year are going to be lower than last year for the second half. So you've got some headwind on asset utilization that adds to sort of some of the decline from third quarter to fourth quarter. But those really are it. I mean there's a little bit of competitive pressure and spreads in CI that's part of the story as well, but that's a small part of the story relative to the volume, mix and asset utilization.

除此之外，由於今年下半年的產量將低於去年，因此產能利用率也會降低。因此，資產利用率方面面臨一些阻力，這在一定程度上加劇了第三季到第四季的下滑。但確實如此。我的意思是，CI 中存在一些競爭壓力和利差，這也是故事的一部分，但相對於數量、組合和資產利用率，這只是故事的一小部分。

So I mean should we be thinking about low single digits or low double digits in terms of a decline in volume mix, in terms of what's embedded in your guidance?

所以我的意思是，就您的指導中所包含的內容而言，我們是否應該考慮銷售組合下降的低個位數或低兩位數？

Yes. I'd say, Frank, some of the volume mix that you've seen in the last quarter or 2 is kind of what we're expecting. It's really that utilization effect that's really starting to hurt our margins in the fourth quarter. And then we'll see how those respond depending on demand environment in 2020.

是的。我想說，弗蘭克，你在過去一兩個季度看到的一些交易量組合正是我們所預期的。正是這種利用率效應真正開始損害我們第四季的利潤率。然後我們將看看它們如何根據 2020 年的需求環境做出反應。

Yes. Something I'd add on that front is that what I'd say is what you're seeing is how we're performing in an industrial recession, Frank. I don't think there's one in front of us. I think we're in the middle of one that started in the fourth quarter of last year where you've put a lot of the sort of destocking drop in volume that's worth some primary demand. We've already been enduring all of that, and some of its continuing in the fourth quarter as the U.S. is starting slow down.

是的。關於這一點我想補充的是，弗蘭克，你所看到的正是我們在工業衰退中的表現。我不認為我們面前有這樣的人。我認為我們正處於去年第四季開始的一段時期，在此期間，大量的去庫存化下降值得一些主要需求。我們已經經歷了這一切，隨著美國經濟開始放緩，這種情況在第四季還將持續。

We turned over high-cost inventory from third quarter of '18 to low-cost inventory. That's always really painful. A lot of that is now behind us. All of that is behind us at this point. So you're more a bit about where primarily demand goes as you look at next year, but you're still sort of finishing a lot of that sort of adjustment to the recessionary environment out now. And of course, you got all these actions we're going to take.

我們將 2018 年第三季的高成本庫存轉為低成本庫存。這總是很痛苦的。如今，很多事情都已成為過去。至此，所有這些都已成為過去。因此，您更關心明年主要需求的走向，但目前您仍在完成經濟衰退環境的大量調整。當然，你也知道我們將採取所有這些行動。

Another reference point is when you look at what we said at Innovation Day in 2014 that our new portfolio would be a lot more resilient and only down sort of 20%. If you did the '09 recession with the current portfolio versus what we had in '09 versus what we were down was 40%, that's sort of playing out on the ratio basis now. So if you look out sort of our earnings performance for the first 9 months, we're about half of sort of hoe the commodity diversified companies on how we've declined.

另一個參考點是，當你看到我們在 2014 年創新日上所說的內容時，我們會發現我們的新投資組合將更具彈性，而且只下跌 20% 左右。如果您使用目前的投資組合來應對 2009 年經濟衰退，而我們當時的投資組合與 2009 年相比下降了 40%，那麼現在的比例就差不多了。因此，如果你看一下我們前 9 個月的獲利表現，你會發現大約有一半的商品多元化公司出現了下滑。

So the portfolio is performing better. We're obviously not happy about parts of our portfolio, and we're going to look at ways to address it. But I think we're doing quite well in this environment.

因此投資組合的表現較好。我們顯然對我們的部分投資組合不滿意，我們將尋找解決方法。但我認為我們在這種環境下做得很好。

The next question will come from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort)。

It's Anthony Walker on for Bob. Earlier in the call, you guys referenced the several buckets that would impact 2020 results. And understanding you're not providing a bridge to next year. I was hoping that you could maybe walk us through the several onetime items impacting 2019 results that you'd expect not to repeat next year.

安東尼·沃克代替鮑勃上場。在早期的電話會議中，你們提到了幾個會影響 2020 年業績的因素。並且理解您沒有為明年提供橋樑。我希望您能向我們介紹一下影響 2019 年業績的幾個一次性事件，您預計這些事件明年不會再發生。

So the only other onetime items that I can think of, we've talked this year, one is the unplanned outage. So that you don't expect. And in pension, I only mentioned earlier. Where things sit today, pension costs could be lower next year versus this year. And then currency will be stable. So those are the 2 or 3 other major items that I can think of that help next year that are different than they are this year.

因此，我能想到的唯一其他一次性事項，就是我們今年討論過的，其中之一就是計劃外停機。讓您意想不到。至於退休金，我剛才提到了。從目前的情況來看，明年的退休金成本可能會低於今年。然後貨幣就會穩定。所以，這些就是我能想到的另外 2 到 3 個對明年有幫助、與今年有所不同的主要事項。

It's important to keep in mind that a lot of cost-reduction actions we've taken are going to start to annualize and flow into a benefit next year. And if we get volume to be better next year, which I believe we will, that will flow through in an attractive way with asset utilization.

重要的是要記住，我們採取的許多降低成本的措施將在明年開始年度化並產生效益。如果明年我們的銷量會更好，我相信我們會的，這將以一種有吸引力的方式透過資產利用來實現。

And then can you help us on the bridge to free cash flow in 2019, which you maintain despite the reduction in EPS? I assume you're anticipating a pretty big tailwind from working capital.

那麼，您能否幫助我們實現 2019 年的自由現金流，儘管每股收益有所減少，但您仍能維持這一水平？我認為您預計營運資金將帶來相當大的順風。

Yes. Sure. So we do have a great track record of managing our free cash flow. What you've seen already, we've generated $525 million of free cash flow through 9 months. That's $40 million higher than last year. If you look at fourth quarter last year, we generated $600 million of free cash flow just in that quarter. Now that did include that $65 million insurance receivable that I've mentioned. So kind of $535 million, excluding that.

是的。當然。因此，我們在管理自由現金流方面確實有著良好的記錄。正如您已經看到的，我們在 9 個月內產生了 5.25 億美元的自由現金流。這比去年高出 4000 萬美元。如果你看去年第四季度，我們光是在該季度就產生了 6 億美元的自由現金流。這確實包括我提到的 6500 萬美元的保險應收款。除此之外，總計 5.35 億美元。

So I think we're going to generate roughly that same amount of free cash flow in fourth quarter this year despite the lower cash earnings, and that's primarily is what you had mentioned. We expect higher working capital release than the $365 million we did last year given the current environment, as well as various working capital initiatives we've been implementing throughout the year. And then as you see, we're also expecting lower capital expenditures of roughly $10 million to $20 million that helped us achieve this kind of result in this tough environment.

因此，我認為，儘管現金收益較低，但我們今年第四季仍將產生大致相同數量的自由現金流，這主要是您所提到的。考慮到當前的環境以及我們全年實施的各種營運資本計劃，我們預計營運資本釋放將比去年的 3.65 億美元更高。然後，如您所見，我們也預期資本支出將降低約 1,000 萬至 2,000 萬美元，這有助於我們在這種艱難的環境中取得這樣的成果。

Next, we will hear from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

接下來，我們將聽取 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander 的演講。

Okay. Could you flesh out the year-end destocking or extended shutdowns comment that you've made through the call from a different angle, which is if you look at it more as a cumulative effect spread between Q4 and Q1, what degree of impact are you concerned about? And is it just in the auto and industrial customers? Or are you concerned about a broader kind of destock cycle?

好的。您能否從不同的角度詳細說明您在電話會議上提出的有關年底去庫存或延長停工的評論，也就是說，如果您將其更多地視為第四季度和第一季之間的累積效應，您擔心的影響程度如何？它只針對汽車和工業客戶嗎？或者您擔心更大範圍的去庫存週期？

So the destocking concerns that we have in the fourth quarter are more about normal seasonality than some sort of dramatic destocking event. I mean clearly, we've seen significant destocking in the first half of this year that goes way beyond where primary demand was at that point as people are pulling their inventories down, trying to access lower-cost raw materials that were available and adjust to an uncertain environment. But the rate of destocking, the amount of it has decreased significantly as you look through the year. Even the third quarter, I would say, was less than the first half. And fourth quarter will have some of that, but not to the degree that we saw in the first half of this year.

因此，我們對第四季度去庫存的擔憂更多的是正常的季節性因素，而不是某種劇烈的去庫存事件。我的意思是，很明顯，今年上半年我們看到了顯著的去庫存現象，其程度遠遠超出了當時的主要需求，因為人們正在減少庫存，試圖獲取可用的低成本原材料，並適應不確定的環境。但從全年來看，去庫存的速度和數量已經大幅下降。我想說，連第三季的表現也比上半季差。第四季也會出現一些這樣的情況，但不會達到今年上半年的程度。

And if I could add, Lawrence, the area that I am hearing from our businesses. These are just our customers trying to work through their inventory targets to finish this year. And then you get back to that more normal production levels next year. So this is more about fourth quarter rather than something carrying into the first quarter next year.

勞倫斯，如果我可以補充的話，這是我從我們的企業聽到的領域。這些只是我們的客戶試圖完成今年的庫存目標。然後明年你的生產水準就會恢復到更正常的水準。因此，這更多是關於第四季度的事情，而不是延續到明年第一季的事情。

And next, we will hear from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

接下來，我們將聽取富國銀行的麥克·西森的發言。

Just one quick question. If you think about your guidance for 2019, down $1 to $1.20. If you get a similar volume/mix improvement in 2020, is that kind of the leverage upside, meaning you would get $1, $1.20 in earnings per share? Or is it a little bit, maybe potentially higher because you've taken some costs out and improved the productivity of the portfolio?

只是一個簡單的問題。如果您考慮 2019 年的指導價，則下降 1 美元至 1.20 美元。如果您在 2020 年獲得類似的銷售/產品組合改善，這是否是一種槓桿優勢，意味著您將獲得每股 1 美元、1.20 美元的收益？或者可能更高一些，因為你已經削減了一些成本並提高了投資組合的生產力？

So Mike, welcome back. And now we probably sit down with different models and get excited about different scenarios. But yes, if there is a bounce back and restock event, we could see a material improvement in EPS next year. That's what Mark talked about. But it's really just different scenarios that could play out next year, and it's just really too early to call.

麥克，歡迎回來。現在我們可能會坐下來討論不同的模型，並對不同的場景感到興奮。但是，如果出現反彈和補貨事件，我們明年可能會看到每股收益大幅改善。這就是馬克所說的。但這其實只是明年可能出現的不同情況，現在下結論還為時過早。

But I think it could be substantial, Mike, and we believe that'll happen when you get a sort of settlement of the trade war.

但我認為這可能是實質性的，麥克，我們相信，當貿易戰得到某種解決時，這將會發生。

Your final question comes from Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

您的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾 (Duffy Fischer)。

A number of your coatings customers have already gone, and there's some cross currents where they've talked about raw materials moderating and some numbers on demand have been a little bit stronger, a little bit weaker. Can you walk through your coatings raw material portfolio? What do you think the market is doing that you're selling into? And then how are your products faring in that market?

你們的許多塗料客戶已經離開，並且存在一些分歧，他們談到原材料的緩和，一些需求數字有點強，有點弱。能介紹一下你們的塗料原料組合嗎？您認為市場正在做什麼來促使您賣出？那麼你們的產品在那個市場上表現如何？

Yes. So Duffy, I think our coatings volume situation reflects our downstream customers when we look at just that part of AFP. So I don't see any sort of, on an overall volume point of view, any real differences than what you're hearing from them. The only thing that would be the exception is we did have some very high-value additives that go into some automotive coatings into China predominantly to local OEMs for their cars. And that part of the market really is off dramatically. It's probably down 25% year-over-year. So that's been a pretty big sort of mix hit in the overall coatings story.

是的。因此，達菲，我認為，當我們只看 AFP 的這一部分時，我們的塗料產量情況反映了我們的下游客戶。因此，從整體音量的角度來看，我沒有看到與您從他們那裡聽到的有任何實際差異。唯一的例外是，我們確實有一些非常高價值的添加劑，這些添加劑主要用於中國本土汽車製造商的汽車塗料。這部分市場確實出現了大幅下滑。與去年同期相比，可能下降了 25%。因此，這對於整個塗料行業來說是一個相當大的打擊。

But besides that sort of one part of the story, everything else is pretty similar. And that's one we're not at all worried about. It's proprietary product that only we make. And I'm pretty confident Chinese will make cars again, and all the EVs that they're expecting to produce will be largely made by these local OEMs with these paint lines and be a real benefit for us. It's just a short-term issue.

但除了故事的這一部分之外，其他一切都非常相似。而這正是我們根本不擔心的。這是只有我們生產的專有產品。我非常有信心中國會再次生產汽車，他們預計生產的所有電動車將主要由這些擁有噴漆生產線的本地原始設備製造商生產，這將為我們帶來真正的好處。這只是一個短期問題。

Okay. Good. And then one for Curt, lastly. Can you explain to me why pension is a benefit next year? With interest rates dropping so much more this year than we would have expected, one might have thought that, actually, the discount rate hurts the gap, and so that pension costs would start to move up and maybe more cash flow would have to be put into pensions. But can you just walk through that for me?

好的。好的。最後，再為 Curt 獻上一份。你能向我解釋一下為什麼退休金是明年的福利嗎？由於今年利率下降幅度遠超過我們的預期，人們可能會認為，實際上，貼現率會損害差距，因此退休金成本將開始上升，也許需要將更多的現金流投入退休金。但你能幫我簡單講一下嗎？

Sure. Just 2 dynamics there. First is the discount rate, and you just need to think about because we mark-to-market our pension liability. That pension liability gets readjusted at the end of this year based on that new discount rate. And then that discount rate is the determination of your interest cost. So with a lower discount rate, you have lower interest expense on your pension liability next year.

當然。那裡只有 2 個動態。首先是折現率，您只需考慮一下，因為我們以市價計算我們的退休金負債。該退休金負債將在今年底根據新的折扣率重新調整。然後，折扣率就決定了你的利息成本。因此，如果折現率較低，您明年的退休金負債利息支出就會較低。

And then, secondly, last year, we had a dramatic decline in our pension assets because of the fourth quarter performance in our overall market. The assets, obviously, are performing much better this year. So if you start the year with a better total amount of pension assets, then you also get to assume the return on those assets. That's another contributor that would help our pension expense on a year-over-year basis. So what I'm talking about, pension costs can return to more normal levels like they were in '18 versus the headwind we faced in '19.

其次，由於去年第四季整體市場的表現，我們的退休金資產大幅下降。顯然，這些資產今年的表現要好得多。因此，如果您在年初就擁有較好的退休金資產總額，那麼您也可以獲得這些資產的回報。這是另一個有助於我們逐年增加退休金支出的因素。所以我想說的是，退休金成本可以恢復到更正常的水平，就像 2018 年一樣，而不是 2019 年我們面臨的逆風。

Okay. Thanks again, everyone, for joining us. A replay of this call will be available on our website later today. And I hope you have a great day. Thanks.

好的。再次感謝大家加入我們。通話的重播將於今天稍晚在我們的網站上提供。祝您有個愉快的一天。謝謝。

Once again, that does conclude our call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

再次，我們今天的通話到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。