伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter Full Year 2021 Eastman Chemical Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化工2021年第四季全年電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議將在伊士曼網站www.eastman.com上進行現場直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將把電話轉交給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部門的Greg Riddle先生。先生，請講。

Thank you, Tracy. And hello, everybody, and thank you for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝，特蕾西。大家好，感謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、高級副總裁兼首席財務官威利·麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain) 以及投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Yesterday, after market closed, we posted our fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing. Our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website, www.eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，我們發布了2021年第四季及全年財務業績新聞稿以及SEC 8-K文件。我們的幻燈片及相關準備演講稿已發佈於公司網站www.eastman.com的「投資者」板塊。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial results news release during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-Q filed for third quarter 2021 and the Form 10-K to be filed for full year 2021.

在開始之前，我將介紹兩點。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到一些關於我們計劃和預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在本次電話會議期間發布的2021年第四季度和全年財務業績新聞稿、之前的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的2021年第三季度10-Q表和即將提交的2021年全年10-K表。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation excludes certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial results news release.

其次，本報告提及的收益不包括某些非核心及非常規項目。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳及其他相關揭露，包括對排除項目和調整後項目的描述，可在 2021 年第四季及全年財務業績新聞稿中查閱。

As we posted the slides and the accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we will now go straight into Q&A.

由於我們昨晚已將幻燈片和隨附的準備好的發言稿發佈在我們的網站上，因此我們現在將直接進入問答環節。

Tracy, please, let's start with our first question.

特蕾西，請讓我們開始第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）現在我們將回答德意志銀行的 David Begleiter 提出的第一個問題。

Mark, just on Advanced Materials, very nice guidance for 2022. Can you talk to how much lines that you have to that $700 million EBIT being performed this year between price increases and innovation?

馬克，就先進材料而言，您對 2022 年的指引非常好。您能否談談今年 7 億美元的息稅前利潤在價格上漲和創新之間有多少關聯？

Sure, David, and it's good to hear from you. And we are really excited about Advanced Materials and its ability to deliver pretty substantial earnings growth, as you just mentioned.

當然，David，很高興收到你的來信。正如你剛才提到的，我們對先進材料及其實現相當可觀的盈利增長的能力感到非常興奮。

And I think to talk about it, it's best to start with the context of last year because it really feeds into why we're so confident about this year. So last year, both at the company level as well, in particular, at the Advanced Materials level, primary demand was incredibly strong at the consumer level, strong in transportation, B&C, durables, a variety of markets, textiles, et cetera. And so there -- the constraint in serving it, especially in Advanced Materials, was -- in a demand situation, it was an outbound logistics and operational concern, because the demand did come back in such a strong way, we -- across the world, of course, ran into supply chain outbound logistics constraints in the industry. And we at Eastman had operational constraints. And so you've got all this primary demand.

我認為，要談論這個問題，最好先從去年的背景說起，因為這恰恰解釋了我們為何對今年如此充滿信心。去年，無論是在公司層面，還是在先進材料層面，消費者層面的主要需求都非常強勁，尤其是在運輸、生物和消費品、耐用品、各種市場、紡織品等領域。因此，在服務這些領域，尤其是在先進材料領域，存在著限制因素——在需求情況下，這是一個外向物流和營運問題。由於需求確實強勁回升，我們——當然，在全球範圍內，我們都遇到了產業供應鏈外向物流的限制。伊士曼也遇到了營運方面的限制。所以，我們面臨著所有這些主要需求。

Then you've got the innovation driving the growth to be well above end markets, especially in durables, and transportation and textiles -- textiles is in fibers. And you've got these operational constraints, right, that were in 3 buckets. There were planned shutdowns and in particular, in Advanced Materials, we had a pull forward, the line conversion of Tritan, because that demand was so strong, we weren't unable to serve it with the existing capacity. So we had that line conversion that took a bunch of capacity off-line during the second quarter of last year. And then we had a long shutdown in the fourth quarter to expand capacity and improve reliability. And bringing that facility -- set of facilities back up online in December took a lot longer than we expected. So operationally constrained demand through last year.

然後，創新驅動著成長，使其遠高於終端市場，尤其是在耐用品、運輸和紡織品領域——紡織品是纖維。此外，我們也面臨營運方面的限制，具體來說，主要分為三個面向。我們有一些計劃內的停產，尤其是在先進材料部門，我們提前完成了Tritan的生產線轉換，因為當時需求非常強勁，我們現有產能無法滿足需求。因此，我們在去年第二季進行了生產線轉換，導致大量產能下線。然後，我們在第四季度進行了長時間的停產，以擴大產能並提高可靠性。 12月份恢復這些設施的運作時間比我們預期的要長得多。因此，去年全年的營運都限制了需求。

So when you look at this year, from a volume mix point of view, we expect to have a lot more capacity. And we're in a better logistics position to serve all that demand. Innovation will continue to deliver a lot of strong growth on top of that, that allows us to have a big -- a very large driver on that front.

所以，從今年的產量組合來看，我們預期產能會大幅提升。而且我們的物流狀況也更佳，能夠滿足所有需求。此外，創新將繼續帶來強勁成長，這將使我們在這方面擁有巨大的驅動力。

In addition to that, of course, with the market being so constrained and tight last year, we had extraordinary inflation across the company and in AM. And it really accelerated through the back half of last year, Advanced Materials in particular. And so we -- there was a period of time, as always, that takes prices to catch up to raws. Now on that front, we did a great job of getting all of our prices back up in specialty plastics as well as new contracts and interlayers to recover the distribution energy and raw material headwind that we had incurred.

除此之外，當然，由於去年市場供應緊張，我們整個公司以及積層製造部門都經歷了嚴重的通貨膨脹。去年下半年，通貨膨脹率大幅上升，尤其是在先進材料部門。因此，像往常一樣，有一段時間價格需要趕上原材料的價格。現在，在這方面，我們做得很好，所有特種塑膠、新合約和夾層的價格都回升了，從而彌補了先前遭受的分銷能源和原材料逆風。

And as we look forward, those prices are sufficient to cover -- raw material and energy costs being similar to fourth quarter and an increasing logistics headwind this year. So you've got at least $100 million of spread tailwind that is fairly well defined by the prices we have in place now. So you put those together, that's very strong growth. But then there's still a cost tailwind as well for this segment. So when you have all those operational shutdowns like we did last year, it's not just the higher maintenance costs, the lost volume opportunities, it also led to a very high air freight expense. At the company level, airfreight was probably $65 million last year relative to a normal $10 million, and a lot of that was in Advanced Materials.

展望未來，這些價格足以彌補今年原材料和能源成本與第四季相似以及物流逆風加劇的損失。因此，我們至少獲得了1億美元的利差順風，這在很大程度上取決於我們目前的價格。所以，把這些因素綜合起來，這是一個非常強勁的成長。但是，該部門仍然面臨成本方面的順風。因此，當像我們去年那樣出現所有這些營運停擺時，不僅維護成本增加、銷售機會減少，還導致了非常高的空運費用。在公司層面，去年的空運費用可能為6500萬美元，而正常的空運費用為1000萬美元，其中很大一部分用於先進材料業務。

So our supply chains are in much better shape where we're not going to incur that air freight this year, already have good plans to materially reduce it back to that more normal level. Not all the way there, but good progress. So you've got cost tailwinds, to some degree, offset by gross spend. But when you put it all together, it adds up to a very impressive earnings outlook for Advanced Materials. And you'll see that immediately in the first quarter with strong sequential improvement as that volume and mix improves without the operational constraints of that fourth quarter, which was over $25 million there.

因此，我們的供應鏈狀況好多了，今年我們不會再承擔空運費用，而且我們已經制定了完善的計劃，將其大幅削減至更正常的水平。雖然還沒有完全實現，但進展良好。因此，成本優勢在一定程度上被總支出所抵銷。但綜合考慮所有這些因素，先進材料公司的獲利前景將非常可觀。而且，隨著產量和產品組合的改善，以及第四季度超過2500萬美元的營運限制，您將在第一季立即看到強勁的環比增長。

Spread expansions are going to occur by those prices that are already in place as we talked about and costs will be a bit better. So we feel great about the segment. And it's really a testament to the innovation, right? It's not just about markets. We're growing well above our markets, even in automotive being above the automotive challenges by a significant amount.

正如我們之前提到的，價差將按照現有價格擴大，成本也會降低。所以我們對這個細分市場充滿信心。這確實證明了我們的創新能力，對吧？這不僅僅關乎市場。我們的成長遠超市場，即使在汽車領域，我們也大幅領先汽車產業的挑戰。

Very good. And just one thing, lastly on Fibers, Mark, you referenced strong growth in textile products. Can you help talk about the growth of those products in '21 as well as your earnings profitability and what you foresee for 2022 in textile products?

非常好。最後，關於纖維業務，馬克，您提到了紡織產品的強勁成長。您能否談談這些產品在2021年的成長情況，以及您們的獲利能力，以及您對2022年紡織產品市場的預測？

Yes. Textiles is a great story. As you know, we've been investing in building out a new set of markets with an improved Naia textile fiber. And then we've been able to add sustainability to this value proposition with, not just the biopolymer content that we've had forever, but now the acetyl component, the other 40% being derived from waste plastic. So you've got a product that is sustainable and sustainably growing force wood pulp made from moist plastic and certified biodegradable as microfibers if they get into the ocean through the washing machine, et cetera.

是的。紡織品領域是一個很棒的故事。如你所知，我們一直在投資，利用改良的Naia紡織纖維開拓一系列新的市場。此外，我們也將永續性融入這項價值主張中，不僅包括我們一直以來使用的生物聚合物成分，現在還添加了乙醯基成分，其餘40%來自廢塑膠。因此，我們擁有一款可持續且可持續增長的產品，它由濕潤的塑料製成，並經過認證，可作為微纖維生物降解，即使這些微纖維通過洗衣機等進入海洋。

So that value proposition, especially for luxury brands and the women's wear market, where sustainability is a very important factor, is driving just tremendous growth from that market, combined with market recovery from 2020. So you saw a very good revenue in the Fibers segment that was driven by this. Revenue volume mix was relatively stable in tow. And so the revenue growth is really being driven by the great success we're having in this space. And it's exciting because we see that continuing, right? The growth we're seeing in women's wear, also starting to get in athleisure is creating a lot of opportunities to grow. In fact, this is like Tritan, where we're moving quickly now to convert more tow lines to making Naia textile fibers to keep up with the growth that we see this year and the years to come.

因此，這種價值主張，尤其對於奢侈品牌和女裝市場而言，永續性是一個非常重要的因素，正推動該市場實現巨大成長，再加上2020年以來市場的復甦。因此，您會看到纖維部門的營收表現非常出色，這要歸功於此。收入結構相對穩定。因此，營收成長實際上是由我們在該領域取得的巨大成功所推動的。令人興奮的是，我們看到這種成長趨勢仍在持續，對吧？我們看到女裝市場的成長，以及運動休閒領域的成長，正在創造大量的成長機會。事實上，就像Tritan一樣，我們現在正在迅速將更多絲束生產線轉換為生產Naia紡織纖維，以跟上我們今年及未來幾年看到的成長步伐。

So it's an exciting story. And they obviously -- and this business, by the way, on the textile side did a nice job of keeping prices to keep up with raws. The spread compression that happened in this segment was really on the tow side.

所以這是一個令人興奮的故事。順便說一下，他們顯然在紡織方面做得很好，並保持了價格與原材料價格同步。該領域價差的壓縮實際上是在絲束方面。

We will now take our next question from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

我們現在將回答摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, maybe you could just talk to us a bit more about the recycling plant announcement in France. And 2 particular areas I'm interested in is, one, just on the milestones that -- the boxes you need to check and your comfort that you're going to check those boxes, and maybe over what period of time you think you'll be able to do it.

馬克，或許你可以跟我們多聊聊法國回收工廠的公告。我特別感興趣的兩個面向是：第一，關於里程碑——你需要完成哪些步驟，以及你對完成這些步驟的信心，以及你認為需要多長時間才能完成。

And then following up on the textiles line of discussion. I did notice that you did include textile applications as an outlet for the France project. So I'm just curious, in that overall project, how big of the mix textiles might be? And if the -- versus maybe a year ago, if the incoming on textiles for that type of a facility is really increasing, and maybe that's going to be another vector for this application.

然後繼續討論紡織品方面的問題。我注意到您確實把紡織品應用作為法國項目的一個出口。所以我很好奇，在整個專案中，混合紡織品的佔比會有多大？如果與一年前相比，這類設施的紡織品進口量真的在增加，也許這會成為該應用的另一個載體。

Thanks, Vince. And we're really excited to get this second project announced. Obviously, we're incredibly excited about the first project we're building that will be online at the end of this year, proving out this technology at much larger commercial scale and enabling very attractive specialty growth here in the short term.

謝謝，文斯。我們非常高興宣布第二個項目。顯然，我們對正在建設的第一個項目也感到無比興奮，該項目將於今年年底上線，這將在更大規模的商業化運營中驗證這項技術，並在短期內實現極具吸引力的特種化學品增長。

But as we look at the French project and getting a position in Europe to serve and enable the circular economy is just an exciting opportunity. We looked all over Europe, and France was a very unique opportunity that we're very excited about. The French government was very committed to be a leader on plastic waste and climate, as you might imagine, and really trying to develop a circular economy. So they were willing to be aggressive on how they're going to improve their recycling infrastructure to support this plant. And they were helpful in making sure we found the right set of incentives, right understanding, and very available green feedstock for the recycling feedstock, as well as green energy and steam. So a lot of factors came together to make France a very attractive location.

但當我們審視法國計畫時，發現在歐洲獲得一個服務並推動循環經濟的職位是一個令人興奮的機會。我們考察了整個歐洲，法國是一個非常獨特的機會，我們對此感到非常興奮。正如你所想像的，法國政府致力於成為塑膠垃圾和氣候領域的領導者，並真誠地致力於發展循環經濟。因此，他們願意積極改善回收基礎設施，以支持這家工廠。他們還幫助我們確保我們找到了合適的激勵措施、正確的理解，以及用於回收的綠色原料，以及綠色能源和蒸氣。所以，很多因素共同作用，讓法國成為一個極具吸引力的地點。

And Europe as a market, very attractive, because, especially in France, those brand leaders, especially in the cosmetic luxury space, are very forward-leaning on sustainability on plastic waste and dealing with climate. So strong engagement. They wanted to have a plant in their backyard. So once again, good choice in France. That allows us to have a very strong competitive position and being a solution provider in this space.

歐洲市場非常有吸引力，尤其是在法國，那些品牌領導者，尤其是在化妝品奢侈品領域，在塑膠垃圾的可持續性和氣候應對方面非常具有前瞻性。參與度很高。他們甚至想在自家後院建造一座工廠。所以，在法國再次證明這是一個正確的選擇。這讓我們擁有非常強大的競爭地位，並成為該領域的解決方案提供者。

So market demand very strong. As you saw, a number of LOIs in place. One of the milestones that has to be completed, Vincent, is just completing those agreements to lock in both the specialty offtake of this plant as well as the PET offtake. And I'll come to textiles in a moment. But it is -- this plant is going to be a mix. So the first plant is going to be primarily specialties. This plant will be a mix of continuing to have our specialty capability there around our copolyesters as well as making PET for packaging. So we've got to complete those agreements. Engagement is very strong and make sure that's done.

所以市場需求非常強勁。如您所見，我們已經簽署了多份意向書。 Vincent，我們必須完成的里程碑之一就是完成這些協議，以鎖定該工廠的特種產品和PET產品的供應。我稍後會談到紡織品。但事實上——這家工廠將是一個混合型工廠。所以，第一家工廠將主要生產特殊產品。這家工廠將繼續保持我們在共聚酯方面的特殊產品生產能力，並生產用於包裝的PET。所以我們必須完成這些協議。雙方的合作非常緊密，我們必須確保完成。

The second thing, of course, is sourcing feedstock. And we're making great progress with a number of suppliers in the feedstock. One of the attractive aspects of France is there's over 600,000 tons of polyester waste a year, and so tapping into that as well as other countries across Europe. So we're confident we're going to get the feedstock, but you got to make sure you've completed that sourcing.

第二件事當然是原料採購。我們與多家原料供應商的合作正在取得重大進展。法國的一大優勢在於每年有超過60萬噸的聚酯廢料，我們可以利用這些廢料，就像歐洲其他國家一樣。因此，我們有信心獲得原料，但必須確保已經完成採購。

And then the site selection is the last part, which is we have 3 very attractive sites identified. They all have very attractive green energy supply. But we're working through what is the best one with the right logistics for both inbound and outbound as you're moving a lot of material here as well as that green energy, which is key to our carbon footprint and our cost structure. And so we're working through all of that. But I'm very confident. All 3 sites are attractive. We just need to decide which one. So we feel good about the track we're on. It's just completing the work that we have going.

最後一步是選址，我們已經確定了三個非常有吸引力的地點。它們都擁有極具吸引力的綠色能源供應。但我們正在研究哪個地點最好，物流方式要兼顧進出，因為這裡不僅要運輸大量物料，還要運輸綠色能源，而綠色能源對我們的碳足跡和成本結構至關重要。我們正在努力解決所有這些問題。但我非常有信心。這三個地點都很有吸引力。我們只需要決定選擇哪一個。我們對目前的進展感到滿意。這只是在完成我們正在進行的工作。

On the textiles part, Vincent, textiles will be part of it. It's not our primary focus at the moment because we've had so much engagement in the packaging and the specialty side. We've been primarily working with customers on that front. So we're starting engagement on the textiles side. Right after packaging in plastic waste, the biggest second contributor to incineration and landfill is textile waste. So there is going to be a significant and meaningful circular economy. That's why we're having so much success in our Naia cellulosic fibers is for the same reason, but we expect textiles to be a part of this project. But I'm not yet sure what percent, so I don't want to get into that at this point. But no doubt, it's a source of feedstock and it's a source of offtake.

至於紡織品部分，Vincent，紡織品將會是其中的一部分。目前這還不是我們的主要關注點，因為我們在包裝和特殊產品方面已經投入了大量精力。我們主要在這方面與客戶合作。所以我們正在開始紡織品方面的投入。在塑膠垃圾中，僅次於包裝，紡織廢料是焚燒和掩埋的第二大垃圾來源。因此，這將帶來一個意義重大且意義深遠的循環經濟。這也是我們在Naia纖維素纖維方面取得巨大成功的原因，但我們預期紡織品也會成為這個計畫的一部分。但我還不確定佔比是多少，所以現在我不想深入討論這個問題。但毫無疑問，紡織品既是原料的來源，也是產品的銷售來源。

We will now take our next question from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

我們現在將回答摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas 提出的下一個問題。

In your script, you talked about elevated spreads in your Chemical Intermediates business that you thought in the second half might be more narrow. Which are the spreads that are elevated now that might narrow later in the year?

您在演講稿中提到，化學中間體業務的價差有所擴大，您認為下半年可能會進一步縮小。目前哪些價差擴大，今年稍晚可能會縮小？

Sure, Jeff. So obviously, spreads on the olefin side are the area where we've had the most expansion through last year. And there was a belief, at some point, markets will sort of normalize as supply and demand come into more balance. And we thought that would happen in the fourth quarter, and it's held up better than expected, as you can see in our results. And we expect, frankly, those spreads to continue to hold up as we go into the first quarter. And then our forecast is based on moderation, starting in the second quarter and becoming more towards normal in the back half of the year. which is just a forecast. As we all know right now, Jeff, no one really knows exactly how that spread normalization is going to occur. But just to be clear, that's what's in our assumptions.

當然，傑夫。顯然，烯烴的價差是我們去年擴張最快的領域。我們曾經相信，隨著供需更加平衡，市場最終會趨於正常化。我們預計這將在第四季度實現，正如您在我們的業績中看到的那樣，情況比預期要好。坦白說，我們預計這些價差在進入第一季後將繼續保持穩定。我們的預測是基於緩和趨勢，從第二季開始，並在下半年逐漸趨於正常。這只是一個預測。傑夫，我們現在都知道，沒有人真正知道價差正常化會如何發生。但需要明確的是，這只是我們的假設。

It's important to remember that there's other things that go on in this segment that create a lot of value, right? So we've got very good volume mix upgrade, especially mix upgrade, and the growth we have in ag functional means -- and especially plasticizers. And acetyls will actually be up in earnings in a meaningful way this year versus last year. Because last year, we had a very large shutdown in our acetyl complex. So we're going to have a lot more volume to sell this year. And acetic anhydride because of contractual reasons didn't improve that much last year and it's catching up to the better market conditions this year, and so we're going to have better sort of margins in the acetic anhydride, which really is the larger part of our business. You have to remember, acetic acid is a small co-product for us. And so we're not that levered to what's going on in that market.

重要的是要記住，這個細分市場中還有其他因素在創造巨大的價值，對吧？我們的產量和產品組合升級非常顯著，尤其是在農業功能性產品方面，尤其是增塑劑方面也取得了成長。乙醯基產品今年的獲利實際上會比去年大幅成長。因為去年我們的乙醯基裝置大規模停產。所以今年我們的銷售量會大幅增加。由於合約原因，乙酸酐去年的銷量沒有太大改善，今年正在迎頭趕上更好的市場行情，因此乙酸酐的利潤率會更高，而乙酸酐實際上是我們業務中最重要的部分。要記住，乙酸對我們來說只是一個小規模的副產品。因此，我們對這個市場動態的掌握並不大。

So you've got a lot of positives going on, not to mention substantial cost tailwind for this segment when you think about -- the high shutdown schedule I mentioned in Advanced Materials, and how that's a tailwind, that applies across the company. And a good portion of that high shutdown -- unusually high shutdown schedule last year was in CI, right? We delayed a bunch of maintenance turnarounds from 2020 into '21 for safety reasons and keeping people from getting COVID. So we had a high schedule there. We also had some unplanned outages like Uri and a few other outages in CI in the fourth quarter that were a headwind, that will be -- all become a tailwind. So you've got cost tailwinds, operational cost savings, improvements. And then you've got these other businesses growing that net against whatever the normalization of CI is on the olefin spreads.

所以，有很多積極的因素在發生，更不用說這個部門在成本方面有顯著的順風，想想我之前提到的先進材料部門的高停工率，以及它如何成為全公司上下的順風。去年高停工率——異常高的停工率——很大一部分是在合成橡膠部門，對吧？出於安全考慮，也為了防止人們感染新冠，我們將一系列維護檢修工作從2020年延後到2021年。所以我們在那裡安排了高工期。第四季度，我們還有一些計劃外的停工，例如Uri停工，以及其他一些合成橡膠部門的停工，這些停工本來是逆風，但最終都會變成順風。所以，我們獲得了成本的順風，營運成本的節省與改善。然後，無論合成橡膠部門的正常化對烯烴價差的影響如何，其他業務的淨利潤都在成長。

In your proposed French plant, can you give us some insight into what you expect your customer agreements to look like? Do you want to carve up the plant into certain segments and have some, I guess, more defined rate of return that's less volatile based on various changes in costs? Or do you wish to go about it in a different way?

在您計劃的法國工廠中，能否透露您希望的客戶協議是什麼樣的？您是否希望將工廠劃分成幾個不同的部分，並制定更明確的回報率，使其不會因成本變動而波動？或者您希望採用其他方式？

So we definitely are focusing and designing these plants with an absolute focus on maintaining steady spreads as much as possible to provide a very reliable source of EBITDA for the company and margin stability and how it shows up every year. So that's our focus.

因此，我們在設計這些工廠時，絕對注重盡可能保持穩定的利差，從而為公司提供非常可靠的EBITDA來源，並保持利潤率的穩定以及每年的業績表現。這就是我們的重點。

Now there are 2 models in how you do that. The first model is a certain percentage of this plant will continue to be specialties, like what we're doing in Kingsport. There's a tremendous amount of demand in cosmetics, in electronics and some very sort of unique high-value packaging items that are specialty products that we sell every day now. And we base those prices on value. And we have good differentiated positions in the marketplace to maintain prices relative to raw material costs. And so our pricing strategy for the specialty part of the plant would be what we do every day in Advanced Materials.

現在有兩種模式可以實現這一點。第一種模式是，該工廠的一定比例將繼續用於特種產品生產，就像我們在金斯波特工廠所做的那樣。化妝品、電子產品以及一些非常獨特的高價值包裝產品的需求量龐大，這些產品都是我們現在每天都在銷售的特殊產品。我們的定價是基於價值。我們在市場上擁有良好的差異化地位，能夠維持價格相對於原物料成本的相對優勢。因此，我們針對工廠特種產品部分的定價策略與我們在先進材料部門的日常做法相同。

In addition, and a good portion of the volume will be making PET for packaging. And that will be the circular contracting model we talked about at Innovation Day. Brad covered it pretty thoroughly. And those will be take-or-pay long-term contracts that the prices are based on the value that we have in providing mechanical recycling content to the marketplace. Remember that current food grade rPET is trading at a 40% to 50% premium to sort of virgin PET today and for the last couple of years in the European market. And these will be cost pass-through contracts. So we're not going to be taking risk on what the feedstock costs are, which makes a lot of sense for the customers, because if the feedstock cost for us go up, the food grade mechanical recycling costs are going to go up even more. So this is a hedge for them about the risk of buying mechanical recycle content relative to what the cost pass-through contract would provide, which will be relatively more stable. So those are the kind of contracts we have. So stable margins derived from both parts of the plant.

此外，很大一部分產量將用於生產包裝用PET。這就是我們在創新日討論過的循環承包模式。 Brad對此做了非常詳盡的介紹。這些將是「照付不議」的長期合同，價格基於我們向市場提供機械回收材料的價值。請記住，目前以及過去幾年，在歐洲市場上，食品級rPET的交易價格比原生PET高出40%到50%。這些將是成本轉嫁合約。因此，我們不會承擔原料成本的風險，這對客戶來說非常合理，因為如果我們的原料成本上漲，食品級機械回收成本也會上漲更多。因此，這對他們來說是一種對沖，可以降低購買機械回收材料的風險，而成本轉嫁合約的收益相對更穩定。這就是我們簽訂的合約類型。因此，工廠的兩個部分都能獲得穩定的利潤。

The exact mix of what is going to be specialty versus PET and textiles is still being determined by us because we're seeing a lot more specialty demand than we originally expected. And so that's good. Those are higher margins. And so we're working on how to balance all of that out. But whatever we build is going to be flexible. So the lines that make PET will have the ability to flex and make our specialty copolyesters in the future, so we can always mix upgrade these facilities over time if that opportunity presents itself.

我們仍在確定特種產品、PET 和紡織品的具體組合，因為我們看到的特殊產品需求遠超我們最初的預期。這很好，因為這些產品利潤更高。因此，我們正在努力平衡所有這些因素。但無論我們建造什麼，都將具有靈活性。因此，生產 PET 的生產線將能夠靈活調整，未來也能生產我們的特殊共聚酯。因此，如果有機會，我們隨時可以對這些設施進行升級改造。

We will now take our next question from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

我們現在將回答花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, you were in the PET business before, then you got out. What is your confidence level to get this 12% ROIC that you were talking about in this French plant? And you talked about recycled PET, rPET. We know it swings wildly. I mean is that -- the spread is kind of locked in, in your mind to get that 12% ROC? Can you just talk about that a little bit?

馬克，你之前從事PET行業，後來退出了。你對這家法國工廠實現你所謂的12%的ROIC（投資報酬率）有多大信心？你也提到了再生PET（rPET）。我們知道它的波動很大。我的意思是，在你看來，為了實現12%的ROC，價差是固定的嗎？能簡單談談嗎？

Sure. And our absolute focus has been on this question because I have no intention of getting back into the merchant PET business that had wide swings in profitability. I ran the business for quite some time in a number of years ago and not going back there.

當然。我們一直以來的重點都集中在這個問題上，因為我無意重操舊業，因為獲利能力波動很大的商用PET業務。我幾年前就經營這個業務一段時間了，不會再回去了。

So we've been very clear with investors as well as customers that the approach we're taking here is different. And it goes back to what I just said to Jeff's question, right? The PET part of this business is going to be in long-term offtake contracts with cost pass-through structures where we're not taking spread risk on what the price versus feedstock cost is. That's the only way we're going to build this plant, right? So those contracts you have to get in place, customers are engaged, understand that. That's what's in these LOIs that we're getting. And of course, we've got to still work through all the details to get to complete agreements, which is one of those milestones that Vince asked for a moment ago.

所以，我們已經非常明確地向投資者和客戶表明，我們採取的方式是不同的。這又回到我剛剛回答傑夫的問題上，對吧？我們PET業務的部分將採用長期承購合同，並採用成本轉嫁結構，這樣我們就不會承擔價格與原料成本之間的利差風險。這是我們建造這座工廠的唯一方法，對吧？所以，你必須簽訂這些合同，讓客戶參與進來，並明白這一點。這就是我們收到的意向書（LOI）中的內容。當然，我們還需要完善所有細節才能達成完整的協議，這也是文斯剛才提到的里程碑之一。

But to be clear, we're not going to build the plant unless we get it that way, right? We're not going to give -- slide back into sort of that volatile business that is the normal PET business.

但要明確的是，除非我們能做到這一點，否則我們不會建造工廠，對吧？我們不會放棄——不會重新回到那種波動性很大的正常PET業務。

And the specialties, we have a very long demonstrated track record for a few decades now, especially the last decade of delivering very strong volume growth, but also very steady spreads over time. Obviously, there's like, all specialties, sort of expansion contraction with movements in deflation or inflation of your raw materials, but we have very differentiated positions. And frankly, this plant is going to give us even more differentiated position relative to competitors, because we're going to have recycled content in our products in a plant based in Europe that gives a much better circular economy benefit for anyone who wants to buy from this plant. The circular economy is a very regional concept. So when we build plants in Europe or in the U.S., it's a significant advantage relative to Asian competitors in how we can sort of provide sort of within region solutions.

在特種化學品領域，我們幾十年來一直保持著良好的業績記錄，尤其是過去十年，不僅實現了強勁的銷售成長，而且利潤也一直保持穩定。當然，所有特種化學品都會隨著原料的通貨緊縮或通貨膨脹而擴張或收縮，但我們的市場定位非常獨特。坦白說，這家工廠將使我們相對於競爭對手擁有更加差異化的地位，因為我們的產品將使用歐洲工廠的再生材料，這將為任何想要從這家工廠購買產品的客戶帶來更大的循環經濟效益。循環經濟是一個非常區域性的概念。因此，當我們在歐洲或美國建廠時，與亞洲競爭對手相比，我們擁有一個顯著的優勢，那就是能夠提供區域內的解決方案。

Great. And congrats on that plant. My next question is...

太好了。恭喜你種下了這株植物。我的下一個問題是…

Thank you. We're really excited.

謝謝！我們真的很興奮。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes. My next question is quickly on inventory levels. And it looks like inventory must be low given that you're airfreighting raw materials here. What's the inventory levels at your customers when you look down the chain or look across your portfolio? Is it quite low? And are some companies are expecting some coil back in business activity because of low inventories? What's your take on that?

是的。我的下一個問題是關於庫存水準的。考慮到你們在這裡空運原材料，庫存看起來肯定很低。從你們的供應鏈或整個產品組合來看，你們客戶的庫存水準是多少？很低嗎？有些公司是否預期由於庫存低，業務活動會回升？您對此有何看法？

Yes. So inventories are historic lows for us, and as far as we can tell with our customers, historic lows for them, too. I should have put that in my stream in David's question around Advanced Materials. That's another driver of volume growth on top of good market pent-up demand and the logistics constraints being freed up and our innovation driving growth. There is this need to rebuild inventories all the way down the chain, pretty much across every market. I would say the only exception I can think of across all of our markets is to where the cigarette customers are about normal inventories. But automotive obviously has a huge amount of pent-up demand and need to build reinventory. Building construction, same thing. Durables, where we've seen a lot of growth, there's still a lot of inventory rebuild in that stream. And the list goes on. And that's in AFP as well with coatings and care chemicals and animal nutrition. So another upside that creates a lot of demand, this year we'll still be pegged against what we can make and ship as we continue to expand capacity to enable more growth next year.

是的。所以，我們的庫存處於歷史低位，據我們了解，我們的客戶庫存也處於歷史低點。我應該把這一點放在David關於先進材料的問題中。除了良好的市場壓抑需求、物流限制的釋放以及我們推動成長的創新之外，這是推動銷售成長的另一個驅動力。幾乎所有市場都需要重建整個供應鏈的庫存。我想說，在我們所有市場中，我能想到的唯一例外是香菸客戶的庫存量接近正常水平。但汽車產業顯然有大量被壓抑的需求，需要重新建立庫存。建築業也是如此。耐用品，我們看到了很大的成長，但該領域仍有大量的庫存重建。諸如此類。在先進材料領域，塗料、護理化學品和動物營養品也需要重建庫存。因此，另一個好處是創造了大量需求，今年我們仍將與我們能夠生產和運輸的數量掛鉤，因為我們將繼續擴大產能，以實現明年的更多成長。

We will now take our next question from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners.

我們現在將回答來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy 的下一個問題。

You signaled plans to deploy $1.4 billion of capital in 2022. And I was wondering if you could help us understand what the mix of repurchases versus M&A might be, also the timing of that deployment, recognizing that you're set to close the adhesives deal, I would think, relatively soon. And then as a matter of clarification, is that deployment included in your EPS range?

您曾暗示計劃在2022年部署14億美元的資本。考慮到您即將完成黏合劑交易，我想您能否幫助我們了解一下回購和併購的組合情況，以及部署的時機。然後，需要澄清的是，這項部署是否包含在您的每股盈餘（EPS）範圍內？

Yes. Thanks, Kevin. This is Willie for the question. So yes, we actually put a lot of the proceeds and the free cash flow to work at the end of 2021. So I would highlight that we repurchased roughly 1 billion shares, of which 700 million was during Q4, mostly in November and December. As we think about having $1.4 billion next year, it's a combination of the proceeds from our adhesives divestiture, and we anticipate that, that will be at the end of Q1 from a closing standpoint, as well as the additional, I'll call it, cash flow that we'll have from operations as we think about also increased organic spend. So $1.4 billion, we would expect to start putting that to work in Q2, is when we would expect to do that. And you can think about probably greater than $1 billion on share repurchases, with the additional optionality as we think about the other $400 million as we get into the back half of the year and see how things develop with our portfolio of bolt-on and pipeline.

是的，謝謝凱文。我是威利，來回答這個問題。是的，我們實際上在2021年底投入了大量收益和自由現金流。我想強調的是，我們回購了大約10億股股票，其中7億股是在第四季回購的，主要是在11月和12月。我們預計明年會有14億美元的收入，這部分收入來自剝離黏合劑業務的收益（我們預計從收盤角度來看，這部分收入將在第一季末到帳），以及我們考慮到增加的有機支出後，營運產生的額外現金流（我稱之為現金流）。因此，我們預計14億美元的營收將在第二季開始投入使用，也就是我們預期的第二季。您可以考慮回購超過 10 億美元的股票，加上額外的可選性，我們會考慮下半年的另外 4 億美元，看看我們的附加產品和管道產品組合如何發展。

Great. That's helpful. And then maybe, Mark, as a follow-up to that, what are you looking to do with the bolt-on M&A pipeline strategically? And I don't know however you want to frame that in terms of product interest or geographic interest or other objectives.

太好了，這很有幫助。馬克，接下來我想問一下，您打算如何從策略上利用這些附加併購管道？我不知道您想從產品興趣、地理興趣或其他目標的角度來闡述這一點。

Yes. So we are looking at bolt-on M&A. I would say that we are exceptionally busy with our top specialty innovation growth programs across the company and ensuring we deliver on that as well as building out the circular platform, right? We've now got the project in Kingsport. We've got the announcement in France. We're still working on that third project in the U.S. and making progress on that. So that is a huge amount of EBITDA in play for long-term growth from an organic point of view from -- on the specialty side, accelerated by all this circular opportunity. So bolt-on M&A is a priority, but it's after those 2 topics.

是的。所以我們正在考慮補充性併購。我想說的是，我們全公司都在忙於最重要的專業創新成長項目，確保我們能夠實現這些目標，同時建立循環平台，對吧？我們現在在金斯波特有項目，在法國也宣布了消息。我們仍在推進美國的第三個項目，並且正在取得進展。因此，從有機角度來看，這對於專業業務的長期成長將產生巨大的EBITDA，而所有這些循環機會都將加速這一成長。因此，補充性併購是我們的優先事項，但它是在這兩個主題之後進行的。

We do see opportunities in Advanced Materials and AFP. As I've said before, our priorities remain the same around ways to open up new markets with compounding capability in a few targeted areas, and specialty plastics. The renewable content of Tritan is opening up new market opportunities in the opaque space and some other more engineered performance dimensions than what we've had in our typical value proposition in electronics and automotive. There are a lot of opportunity there that we want to sort of make sure we can exploit and grow.

我們確實看到了先進材料和AFP領域的機會。正如我之前所說，我們的重點始終不變，即利用在幾個目標領域的複合能力以及特種塑膠領域開拓新市場。 Tritan的可再生成分正在不透明領域以及其他一些工程化性能維度上開闢新的市場機遇，這些維度與我們在電子和汽車領域的典型價值主張相比，更具工程化。這些領域蘊藏著大量機遇，我們希望確保能夠加以利用並且持續成長。

We're always interested in growing our Performance Films business and have had a great track record of continued bolt-ons there, and that should continue. And then whether it's performance, personal care or coating additives, there's -- those opportunities that leverage our very strong position in our technology platforms and our market positions, that we'll look at. So it's sort of those 4 areas and animal nutrition, right?

我們始終致力於發展高性能薄膜業務，並且在該領域擁有持續擴張的良好記錄，這種勢頭應該會持續下去。此外，無論是高性能薄膜、個人護理還是塗料添加劑，我們都會專注於那些能夠利用我們在技術平台和市場中非常強大的優勢地位的機會。所以，這大概就是這四個領域以及動物營養，對嗎？

So a number of different places where we could consider doing it. And -- but the markets are pretty overheated. And we're going to always remain disciplined in our capital deployment to make sure we get an attractive return for investors. So we'll just have to see if that gets done. If it doesn't happen, as Willie said, that extra $400 million of cash above the $1 billion this year, we'll turn into share repurchases.

所以，我們可以考慮在很多不同的地方進行投資。而且——但是市場已經相當過熱了。我們將始終嚴格控制資本配置，以確保為投資者帶來可觀的回報。所以我們只能拭目以待，看看能否實現。如果實現不了，正如威利所說，今年超過10億美元的額外4億美元現金，我們將用於股票回購。

We will now take our next question from Mike Sison from Wells Fargo.

我們現在將回答富國銀行的麥克·西森提出的下一個問題。

A quick one on AFP. You're looking for 10% growth versus last year. Any commentary? You have 4 for businesses in the segment now. Will they all sort of grow in that line, some above, some below?

關於法新社，我快速問一下。您預計今年的成長率將達到10%。您有什麼評論嗎？目前該細分市場中有4家企業。它們都會實現類似的成長嗎？有些成長速度高於10%，有些則低於10%。

Yes. So first of all, we're really excited to have the new focused AFP. And it is very attractive growth when you look at what we're guiding to recast $450 million EBIT last year of the AFP business, excluding tires and adhesives. So that is very strong growth.

是的。首先，我們非常高興AFP業務有了新的重點。考慮到我們去年AFP業務的息稅前利潤（不包括輪胎和黏合劑）預計將達到4.5億美元，這成長非常誘人。所以，這是一個非常強勁的成長。

And it really is the same story, just not as extreme as the Advanced Material story earlier, right? So we've got very good volume mix growth in coatings, in personal care, in water treatment, in animal nutrition, in specialty fluids. All of those elements of the market were drivers of growth last year and are expected to continue to be drivers of growth this year. This is also a place where we had an usually high shutdown schedule, last year especially for the care solutions business. And so you've got just that freed up capacity to enable more volume growth on top of market growth as we go into this year.

這確實是同一個故事，只是沒有之前先進材料的故事那麼極端，對吧？我們在塗料、個人護理、水處理、動物營養和特殊液體領域的銷售成長都非常強勁。所有這些市場要素都是去年成長的驅動力，預計今年也將繼續保持成長動能。去年，我們的護理解決方案業務停產計劃通常比較頻繁。因此，隨著我們進入今年，我們釋放了產能，以便在市場成長的基礎上實現更大的銷售成長。

And then you've got restocking, because none of these customers have inventory, as I mentioned earlier, so there's the restocking benefit. And then there's the innovative growth that is continuing to gain traction here and starting to sort of build like what we have in Advanced Materials across coatings and care solutions. So that's all contributing. You've got spread improvement.

然後還有補貨，因為正如我之前提到的，這些客戶都沒有庫存，所以補貨有好處。此外，創新成長也在持續成長，並開始像我們在先進材料領域在塗料和護理解決方案方面所做的那樣發展。所有這些都有所貢獻。利差有所改善。

Now this business increased prices a lot faster last year because a lot of their positions are in cost pass-through contracts that track pretty quickly with the raws by definition. And so those prices increased a lot. So we didn't have as much of a spread headwind in this business last year as we did in Advanced Materials. Therefore, this year, we're not going to have as much of a tailwind, but we're still going to have a meaningful tailwind.

去年，該業務的價格上漲速度更快，因為他們的許多倉位都簽訂了成本轉嫁合同，這些合約本質上會與原材料價格保持相當快的同步。因此，這些價格上漲了很多。所以，去年我們在該業務上遇到的利差逆風不如先進材料業務那麼大。因此，今年我們不會遇到那麼大的順風，但仍會有一個顯著的順風。

And then, of course, you've got the overall net cost structure being considerably lower this year for the company, and AFP will pick up part of that. Then it gets netted off by gross spend. So well positioned to deliver growth. And it's really across all the segments: coatings, residential. Construction is obviously incredibly tight. Automotive has plenty of room for recovery this year. We've got some actually great growth in semiconductors in the coatings business. And animal nutrition is going to have a very good solid year. And personal care is a great, stable business, with more capacity to sell this year.

當然，今年公司的整體淨成本結構大幅降低，AFP 將承擔其中的一部分，然後由總支出抵銷。因此，我們完全有能力實現成長。而且，成長確實涵蓋了所有領域：塗料、住宅。建築業務顯然非常緊張。汽車業務今年有很大的復甦空間。我們的塗料業務中的半導體業務確實取得了顯著的成長。動物營養業務今年也將表現穩健。個人護理業務表現優異且穩定，今年的銷售能力將進一步增強。

Got it. And then a follow-up in Advanced Materials. Just curious if you could give us a little bit of maybe sensitivity in the $100 million spread recovery. Oil is pretty high now. And if inflation gets worse, how does that affect that $100 million? And I guess, would you just sort of make it up in Intermediates in the event that happens? So the net-net number would still be pretty good?

明白了。接下來是關於先進材料業務的後續問題。我很好奇，您能否跟我們講一下，1億美元利差回收的敏感度。現在油價很高。如果通膨加劇，會對這1億美元產生什麼影響？我想，如果發生這種情況，您會用中間體來彌補嗎？所以，淨利還是會相當不錯嗎？

Yes. So first of all, we said greater than $100 million. So we have some room for air with more recent inflation to deliver that $100 million. Second, we have good pricing power and a strong demand environment. We just spent considerable time talking about how primary demand and our direct customer demand is well in excess of what can be provided. And they need to rebuild inventory on top of that. So we feel confident in that environment. We have pricing power. And if we see raw material inflation go up, we'll increase prices further from where we are today. But I think the team has done an excellent job when you look at -- the raw material inflation really didn't accelerate until towards the end of August. And by January, we caught up to it. That's actually -- in the world of specialties, actually very good excellence when you think about the extremity of this inflation we were chasing, to be in a very good position for the first quarter.

是的。首先，我們說的是超過1億美元。所以，考慮到近期通膨的影響，我們有一定的空間來實現這1億美元。其次，我們擁有良好的定價能力和強勁的需求環境。我們剛剛花了大量時間討論主要需求和直接客戶需求如何遠遠超出了我們所能提供的水平。他們需要在此基礎上重建庫存。因此，我們對這種環境充滿信心。我們擁有定價能力。如果我們看到原物料通膨上漲，我們會在目前的基礎上進一步提高價格。但我認為團隊做得非常出色——原材料通膨直到8月底才真正加速。到1月份，我們就趕上了。這實際上——在特種化學品領域，考慮到我們追逐的極端通膨，這實際上是一個非常好的成績，使得我們在第一季處於非常有利的地位。

And to be clear, what our assumption is, on a full year basis, this year, raw materials and energy are going to be a headwind relative to last year, which is basically assuming those prices remain elevated around fourth quarter. We are also expecting distribution costs to be a headwind this year as the supply chain tensions are not resolving anytime soon. And the prices we currently have in place gets you that greater than $100 million tailwind. So I think we're in a good position. And if oil keeps going up, we'll raise prices.

需要明確的是，我們假設，就全年而言，今年原材料和能源價格將比去年面臨阻力，這基本上是假設這些價格在第四季度左右保持高位。我們也預計，由於供應鏈緊張局勢短期內難以緩解，今年的經銷成本也將面臨阻力。而我們目前的定價可以帶來超過1億美元的順風。所以我認為我們處於有利地位。如果油價繼續上漲，我們就會提高價格。

We will now take our next question from John Roberts from UBS.

我們現在將回答瑞銀集團的約翰羅伯茲提出的下一個問題。

Are there any constraints on growing the green textile fiber business? Can we assume that for many years, you can convert capacity from cig tow? And are there any constraints on putting more waste plastic into the gasifier to grow the acetyls component of that?

發展綠色紡織纖維業務是否有任何限制？我們能否假設在未來多年內，能夠將菸絲束產能轉化為再生資源？將更多廢塑膠投入氣化爐以生產其中的乙醯基成分是否有任何限制？

Yes. So there's no limitation to our ability to grow the Naia textiles business long term. So we definitely have tow assets available to be converted. And obviously, the tow market continues to have sort of a 2% to 3% decline, making additional capacity available. So it's just time and CapEx to convert those lines to make the Naia fibers. And we've had some really interesting breakthroughs on the process innovation side to improve our ability to do that in a capital-efficient manner. So we're really excited about that. So we can definitely sort of convert capacity to grow with the market.

是的。因此，我們長期發展Naia紡織業務的能力並沒有任何限制。我們肯定有絲束資產可以轉換。顯然，絲束市場持續下滑2%到3%，從而提供了額外的產能。所以，現在是時候將這些生產線轉換為生產Naia纖維了，只需要投入時間和資本支出。我們在工藝創新方面取得了一些非常有趣的突破，從而提高了我們以資本高效的方式實現這一目標的能力。我們對此感到非常興奮。因此，我們絕對可以轉換產能，與市場同步成長。

And then when it comes to recycled content for the -- when we look at where we can go in Naia textiles, where we can go in engineered thermoplastics and specialty plastics, where we could go in food service which could be significant volume with our biodegradable polymers. We have the ability and the microbeads, which isn't very much volume, but very high value. We have plans in place where we can, with reasonable capital, improve the capability of the front end of the gasification complex to process whatever plastic waste we need to support all that growth.

說到回收材料，我們考慮了在奈及利亞紡織業、工程熱塑性塑膠和特殊塑膠以及食品服務業的用途，這些領域我們的可生物降解聚合物的產量可能很大。我們有能力生產微珠，雖然產量不大，但價值很高。我們已製定計劃，利用合理的資金，提高氣化綜合設施前端處理塑膠廢物的能力，以支持所有這些增長。

And then should we assume all of the PRT facilities going forward are going to have a mixed waste plastic processing as well? You've got it in Kingsport. Now you'll have it in France. I was thinking before, you would basically only have mixed waste in Kingsport and the PRT plants would be really polyester-only.

那麼，我們是否應該假設所有PRT工廠未來都會進行混合廢塑膠處理？金斯波特已經有了。現在法國也有了。我之前以為，金斯波特基本上只會處理混合廢塑料，而PRT工廠實際上只會處理聚酯纖維。

No, we'll have it everywhere. It's really important. Just the scale of it will depend on the market and the opportunity that we're pursuing. The -- whatever plastic you get, even if it's "all polyester," it's not. When it shows up at the plant gate, there's all kinds of stuff, rocks, aluminum, other polymers that are still in that bale. And you really don't want to put that in the plant. So to some degree, you've got to have this processing on the front to make sure that what you're putting in the front of the plant is as pure polyester is possible. And this is one of the competitive advantages I think that Eastman is going to have versus our competitors, is this is a very efficient process we've developed and patented on how to do that. And if you don't have that ability, no matter how good the bale is that's being delivered to you, you're going to have a serious conversion problem on what's going in the front end to getting high-quality output on the back end.

不，我們會在任何地方都提供這種服務。這真的很重要。只是規模取決於市場和我們追求的機會。無論你收到什麼塑料，即使是“純聚酯”，也並非如此。當它到達工廠門口時，包裝裡仍然會夾雜著各種各樣的東西，石頭、鋁和其他聚合物。你一定不想把這些東西放進工廠。所以在某種程度上，你必須在前端進行這種處理，以確保你送到工廠前端的產品盡可能純淨。我認為這是伊士曼相對於競爭對手的競爭優勢之一，因為我們開發了一種非常高效的工藝，並已獲得專利。如果你沒有這種能力，無論交付給你的包裝有多好，你都會面臨從前端到後端獲得高品質輸出的嚴重轉換問題。

One of the great things that 30 years of experience got us in working with a commercial scale plant at -- with Kodak and Eastman is, we learned a lot about how to have high conversion efficiency and how to have high energy efficiency. And so our plant's capable of 93% conversion on a polyester level from what goes in, to what comes out, which is incredibly high compared to most technologies. But you still got to make sure it's polyester you're sticking in the front end. So that mix processing is another competitive advantage that you put together with all of our other advantages that gives us confidence that we can be a leader in the space.

30年的經驗讓我們在與柯達和伊士曼等商業規模工廠合作的過程中受益匪淺，其中之一就是我們學到了很多如何實現高轉換效率和高能源效率的方法。因此，我們的工廠聚酯纖維從進料到出料的轉換率高達93%，與大多數技術相比，這個數字非常高。但你仍然需要確保在前端使用的聚酯纖維。因此，混合加工是另一個競爭優勢，它與我們所有其他優勢相結合，讓我們有信心成為該領域的領導者。

We will now take our next question from Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

我們現在來回答來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, I can safely say that you had a more eventful Martin Luther King Day than most people on this call. That looked pretty impressive, that backdrop, to be sure. One of the key drivers for growth in '22 is the $75 million tailwind from planned shutdowns and operational disruptions year-over-year. I do like the slide on -- I do like Slide 16 that shows kind of the planned shutdowns. But if I'm reading that correctly, that's -- it's a $5 million net benefit and you're talking about $75 million. Is that just kind of the unplanned outages that you had in '21 or -- that obviously you're not counting on for '22? But how should we think about that?

馬克，我可以肯定地說，你度過了一個比電話會議中大多數人都更充實的馬丁路德金紀念日。當然，這樣的背景確實令人印象深刻。 2022年成長的關鍵驅動力之一是計畫內停機和營運中斷帶來的7,500萬美元的順風，年比去年有所增加。我很喜歡第16張投影片，它顯示了計畫內停機的情況。如果我沒看錯的話，那是一個500萬美元的淨收益，而你說的是7500萬美元。這只是2021年發生的非計畫停機，還是──顯然你沒有考慮到2022年的情況？我們該如何看待這個問題呢？

Great. So I'm going to let Willie answer your question. But the Macron visit was great. And I put myself in lockdown for the 2 weeks leading up to it so I didn't get Omicron and couldn't go. So -- but it was -- he was impressive, actually, I have to say. He was well-briefed, detailed conversation that went for a long time with him around what he wants in a circular economy and how we're going to be the largest investment in France this year. And he wanted to make sure that the government is doing everything they can to ensure our success. And so it was impressive to see him spend a lot of time with me and actually on the detail of making sure we succeed. So it was a good experience. But to the cost question, I'll let Willie take it.

太好了。所以我請威利來回答你的問題。馬克宏的訪問很棒。在訪問前兩週我把自己隔離了，所以沒能拿到奧米克龍的證件，也沒能去。所以——但不得不說——他真的令人印象深刻。我們進行了一次詳盡的、簡短的談話，就馬克宏對循環經濟的期望以及我們如何成為今年法國最大的投資進行了長時間的溝通。他希望確保政府竭盡所能確保我們的成功。所以，看到他花了很多時間陪我，並且實際上在細節上確保我們成功，我印象深刻。這是一次很好的經驗。至於成本問題，我還是讓威利來回答吧。

Thanks, Frank, for the question. To your point, '22, there's several significant tailwinds on the cost front. So first, it's greater than $75 million versus last year and that's due to the unusually high planned shutdown schedule. And the schedule should be about $50 million relative to that on a year-over-year basis. But we also had some unexpected challenges like Winter Storm Uri. Obviously, that seems like a long time ago at this point. And if you think about, I'll call it, the momentum from '20, we had to defer several shutdowns in the '21 because of COVID and then also accelerated, as Mark highlighted earlier, debottlenecks and to improve our reliability. And it's not just the higher maintenance cost. It's the impact of that lost capacity that we had in 2021 that gives us the growth potential given the pent-up demand and I'll call it the supply chain that still need to rebuild inventories.

謝謝弗蘭克的提問。正如您所說，2022年在成本方面有幾個顯著的利多因素。首先，與去年相比，成本超過了7,500萬美元，這是由於計畫停工時間異常長。與去年同期相比，計劃停工時間應該在5000萬美元左右。但我們也遇到了一些意想不到的挑戰，像是冬季風暴「烏裡」（Uri）。顯然，現在看來，那似乎是很久以前的事了。如果您回想一下，我稱之為2020年的勢頭，由於新冠疫情，我們不得不在2021年推遲幾次停工，然後，正如馬克之前強調的那樣，我們也加快了消除瓶頸和提高可靠性的步伐。這不僅僅是更高的維護成本。 2021年產能損失的影響，考慮到被壓抑的需求，給了我們成長潛力，我稱之為供應鏈仍然需要重建庫存。

Also, there's an $85 million tailwind on variable comp that goes back to normal in 2022. And we continue our operations transformations, and we think that will be another $50 million to $75 million. Now also, as we enter 2022, inflation is going to be much higher than traditional. We think that number is probably $100 million to $125 million. So as you look at this, the net tailwind is greater than $100 million and it likely offsets any of the scenarios on CI normalization of margins. And in other words, our growth forecast really centers on the belief that we can grow specialty volumes and catch up to the raw material headwinds and also the logistics headwinds that Mark highlighted earlier. And on top of that, we'll be buying back shares.

此外，浮動薪酬方面，我們還有8,500萬美元的順風，到2022年將恢復正常。我們將繼續推動營運轉型，預計這還將帶來5000萬至7500萬美元的順風。此外，隨著2022年的到來，通貨膨脹率將遠高於傳統水準。我們認為這個數字可能在1億至1.25億美元之間。因此，從這個角度來看，淨順風超過1億美元，很可能會抵銷任何關於固定收益利潤率正常化的情景。換句話說，我們的成長預測真正基於這樣的信念：我們能夠增加特種產品銷量，並克服馬克先前提到的原材料和物流方面的不利因素。除此之外，我們還將回購股票。

Got you. That's very helpful, very detailed. And then if I could ask a follow-up on the moving of the pricing in specialties up to the level of inflation during this quarter that you caught up. And I know you're guiding to keep raws flat 4Q '21 through the balance of '22. But if you get a situation that perhaps raws do erode, what's your confidence level in being able to hang on to your higher pricing in the specialties arena? Or how should we think about that interplay?

明白了。這非常有幫助，非常詳細。然後，我想問一下，您在本季如何將特種藥品的價格調整到通膨水準？我知道您預計2021年第四季到2022年全年，原料藥價格將保持穩定。但是，如果原料藥價格真的下跌，您對在特種藥品領域保持較高定價的信心有多大？或者我們應該如何看待這種相互作用？

Yes. So it all comes down to sort of why things happen, Frank. But if raws are eroding because supply demand just is a little bit more balanced, but demand is still reasonably good, which I think I've covered earlier on our confidence on why that will be the case, that becomes a tailwind. So that would be an additional tailwind relative to our forecast.

是的。所以，弗蘭克，一切都取決於事情發生的原因。但是，如果原材料價格下跌是因為供需略微平衡，而需求仍然相當良好（我想我之前已經討論過我們對這種情況的信心），那麼這就會成為一種順風。所以，相對於我們的預測，這將是一個額外的順風。

We will now take our next question from Bob Koort from Goldman Sachs.

我們現在將回答高盛的 Bob Koort 提出的下一個問題。

I'm going to start out on the French announcement, the French plant. You mentioned you're going to have the mixed plastic processing upfront. What do you do with the nonpolyester stuff? Do you sell that to somebody else that gasifies it or burns it? Or where does it go exactly?

我先從法國的公告開始，也就是法國工廠。你提到過，你們會先進行混合塑膠加工。你們如何處理非聚酯材料？是賣給別人氣化還是焚燒？或者說，這些材料最終會去哪裡？

Yes. So the -- so what we don't use goes back into the recycling stream and ends up being used by another recycling process. So for example, most of what would be left over could be used by a pyrolysis plant, and there are several of those kind of projects being developed in France. So they could take the material and turn it into a circular economy for the olefin world. Worst-case scenario, it gets incinerated like it does today. All of this material these days is being incinerated, right? So you got to keep in mind that the overall recycling industry has a significant need to sort of improve its infrastructure and its recycling, right? So France alone has 600,000 tons of polyester waste. Just over half of that is packaging. The rest is textiles and carpets. The textiles and carpets is incinerated. It has no alternative solution until we show up on the polyester side of carpet and textiles with a solution where it can be recycled.

是的。所以我們不用的廢料會被重新送入回收流，最後再用於其他回收製程。例如，大部分剩餘材料可以被熱解工廠利用，法國正在開發幾個類似的項目。他們可以將這些材料轉化為烯烴產業的循環經濟。最壞的情況是，它會像現在這樣被焚燒。現在所有這些材料都被焚燒了，對吧？所以你必須記住，整個回收產業都迫切需要改善其基礎設施和回收利用，對吧？光是法國就有60萬噸聚酯纖維廢料。其中一半多一點是包裝材料。其餘的是紡織品和地毯。紡織品和地毯會被焚燒。除非我們找到一種可以回收的地毯和紡織品聚酯纖維解決方案，否則別無選擇。

So -- and on the packaging side, only about 15% to 20% of what is captured by the mechanical recyclers actually finds its way back into a bottle. The rest of it is being down cycled. So as we sort of optimize the system, we're -- the mechanical recycling feedstock, as we've talked about, degrades over time so we have to have this molecular recycling technology to close this loop. And it has to be done because plastic is by far the most carbon-efficient product versus other materials. So if we're going to be science-driven, that's where this opportunity is so significant for us. But there's a whole ecosystem of recycling infrastructure, Bob, that gets created. And this mixed plastic processing actually just -- doesn't just enable polyester for us, but actually enables a cleaner feedstock for other technologies at the same time.

所以——在包裝方面，機械回收機回收的塑膠中，只有大約15%到20%最終被製成瓶子。其餘的都被降級回收。因此，隨著我們優化系統，正如我們之前提到的，機械回收原料會隨著時間的推移而降解，所以我們必須採用分子回收技術來關閉這個循環。這必須做到，因為塑膠是迄今為止碳效率最高的產品，相比其他材料而言。所以，如果我們要以科學為導向，那麼這個機會對我們來說就意義重大。 Bob，這需要建造一個完整的回收基礎設施生態系統。這種混合塑膠加工其實——不僅能為我們生產聚酯纖維，還能同時為其他技術提供更乾淨的原料。

And can you license that technology? It sounds like you've got something that's novel there. Maybe there's a stream, a licensing stream there?

你能授權這項技術嗎？聽起來你在這方面有一些新東西。也許那裡有一條授權管道？

Yes. We're looking at licensing and partnering opportunities because it in itself can really unlock and enable a lot of feedstock recycling infrastructure affordably. So we are very much looking at that and how -- it's part of how we partner with people who are going to source us feedstocks and other opportunities.

是的。我們正在尋找授權和合作機會，因為這本身就能以可負擔的價格真正解鎖並啟用大量原料回收基礎設施。因此，我們正在非常重視這一點，以及如何——這是我們與那些將為我們提供原料和其他機會的供應商合作的一部分。

And then I guess in Kingsport, you're going to use some of your material to do some Tritan Renew. Would it make sense if you're going to have a suite of products, one of those being a PET resin plant, to not just send then that DMT and paraxylene to an existing PET plant and have them toll it because they could still get the same sort of renewable certificate for it, and then you wouldn't have to spend the capital or maybe have a subscale plant versus a fossil fuel plant?

然後我想在金斯波特，你會用一些材料來做一些Tritan Renew。如果你要生產一套產品，其中之一就是PET樹脂工廠，那麼不把DMT和對二甲苯送到現有的PET工廠並讓他們進行加工，這樣合理嗎？因為他們仍然可以獲得相同的可再生證書，而且你不必花費資金，或建立一個比化石燃料工廠規模小的工廠。

Yes. So it's unfortunately not that simple. A long time ago, DMT is a relatively high-cost way to make the intermediates for making PET. It enables a much higher performing product, which is why we use it in our specialty products. It gives you much better clarity and better performance on many dimensions. So we're DMT based as a competitive advantage for specialties. But the existing PET infrastructure that's in Europe and really across the world for that matter is based on PTA. And so you can't just swap out PTA and use DMT in an existing PET plant. You'd have to spend a significant amount of capital to convert the facility. And once you start looking at that capital conversion cost, you might as well just build a new plant. It's more -- it's a better integrated return.

是的。所以很遺憾，事情並非如此簡單。很久以前，DMT 是一種生產 PET 中間體的成本相對較高的方法。它能顯著提高產品的性能，這也是我們在特種產品中使用它的原因。它能在許多方面提升產品透明度和性能。因此，DMT 是我們特種產品的競爭優勢。但歐洲乃至全球現有的 PET 基礎設施都基於 PTA。因此，你不能簡單地在現有的 PET 工廠中用 DMT 取代 PTA。你必須投入大量資金來改造現有設施。一旦你開始考慮這筆資本轉換成本，你不如蓋一棟新工廠。這更能帶來更好的綜合回報。

We will now take our next question from Matthew DeYoe from Bank of America.

我們現在將回答美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe 提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to talk a little bit about Naia and tow and the conversions. I mean is there a point where converging -- converting tow lines can happen at a big enough rate that you'll substantially tighten the tow market? Or is that unlikely or too far out or not the right way to think about it?

我想談談奈亞航空、拖航以及改裝事宜。我的意思是，是否存在一個臨界點，屆時拖航航線的合併——改裝速度足夠快，足以大幅縮減拖航市場？或者說，這種可能性不大，或太遙遠，或不是正確的思考方式？

No, it's a very good question, one we spend a lot of time on. And as we look at the Naia tow conversion as well as before you get to tow, the ability to redeploy flake, the intermediate, the polymer basically that goes into the spinning lines, into food service and in the thermoplastics creates different ways to sort of redeploy the entire integrated stream. And it created a very tight stream relative to where it is today. But yes, there are ways to look at converting capacity on the tow front.

不，這是一個非常好的問題，我們花了很多時間研究這個問題。當我們檢視Naia絲束的轉化率，以及在談到絲束之前，重新部署薄片、中間體以及基本上用於紡絲生產線、食品服務和熱塑性塑料的聚合物的能力，創造了不同的方式重新部署整個集成流程。相對於現在的狀況，這創造了一個非常緊湊的流程。但是，確實有辦法評估絲束方面的轉換能力。

There's also new technologies, the next-generation technology we're working at that I'm not going to get into detail now, that would be a different way to make the fiber at a much more capital efficient and advantaged greenhouse way. So we're pursuing all those options. And whether it makes the total tow industry exceptionally tight isn't just about us, right? It's also about what happens with our competitors and what they do with their capacity. And we're very fortunate to have a long multi-decade history of innovation in cellulosics to all these different specialty applications that allow us to create all these new opportunities for growth that allow us to keep our stream tight and grow it when you include the specialties with the fiber complex.

還有新技術，我們正在研發的下一代技術，我現在不打算詳細介紹，它將是一種以更資本效率和更具溫室效應的方式生產纖維的全新方法。所以我們正在探索所有這些選擇。這是否會使整個絲束產業變得異常緊張，這不僅僅關乎我們自己，對吧？這也關乎我們的競爭對手以及他們如何利用其產能。我們非常幸運，在纖維素材料和各種特種應用領域擁有數十年的創新歷史，這使我們能夠創造所有這些新的增長機會，使我們能夠保持產品線的緊缺，並在將特種產品與纖維複合體相結合時實現增長。

But it's not as clear that everyone else can do the same thing. And so I'd hesitate to say that the industry in total is going to become extremely tight. But I would tell you with the capacity reductions that have already happened in the tow industry over the last several years, and we're doing -- certainly tightening the market in a meaningful way.

但目前尚不清楚其他公司是否也能做到。因此，我不敢斷言整個行業將變得極其緊張。但我要說的是，鑑於過去幾年拖車行業已經進行的運力削減，我們正在做的——無疑正在以有意義的方式收緊市場。

I appreciate that. And you might have kind of answered this a bit in Mike's question. But if I think about kind of the cadence on raw material recapture and AM, I mean, is it really like January, you're back? I mean what quarter are we looking at here where price overtakes raws, because I'd think things like advanced interlayers could see a meaningful step change kind of day 1, just given annual pricing, but I don't know that that's the correct way to think about it.

我很感激。你可能在麥克的問題中已經回答了一些。但如果我考慮一下原料回收和積層製造的節奏，我的意思是，現在真的像一月一樣嗎？你又回來了？我的意思是，我們現在看到的哪個季度價格會超過原料？因為我認為像高級中間膜這樣的產品，考慮到年度定價，可能會在第一天就看到一個有意義的階躍變化，但我不知道這是不是正確的思考方式。

Yes. So day 1, this quarter relative to the fourth quarter, you're going to see substantial spread expansion with the prices that we've put in place relative to Q4. That's a big driver of the, not just annual outlook for Advanced Materials, but the strong improvement we're guiding to you about Advanced Materials on a Q1 to -- I'm sorry, Q4 to Q1 basis. Combined with the volume and mix growth, it really is a big substantial step up from where we were in the fourth quarter. So yes, it's going to start happening right now.

是的。所以從第一天開始，相對於第四季度，您會看到我們制定的價格與第四季度相比，價差大幅擴大。這不僅是先進材料年度前景的重要驅動力，也是我們向您預測的先進材料第一季度——抱歉，是第四季度與第一季相比——的強勁增長的驅動力。再加上銷售量和產品組合的成長，這確實比第四季有了很大的提升。所以，是的，這種情況現在就開始發生了。

It picks up momentum though. So the expansion gets more significant in the second, third and fourth quarter when you look at it on a year-over-year basis for where all the value comes from, not just on spread, but also on volume mix improvement. We were really constrained because we're normally seasonally stronger in the second quarter on volume mix. But last year, we couldn't do that because of the shutdown that we had to do to do the Tritan conversion. So a lot better ability to grow volume in the second quarter as well as spread improvement. So AM will actually have a very good second quarter relative to the first quarter when you put that together. So no, it's happening now.

不過，它的勢頭正在增強。因此，如果從年比來看，第二、三、四季的擴張會更加顯著，因為所有價值都來自利潤，不僅是價差，還有銷售組合的改善。我們確實受到了一些限制，因為通常情況下，第二季度我們的銷售組合會因季節性因素而更加強勁。但去年，由於停工進行Tritan轉換，我們沒能做到這一點。因此，第二季我們擁有更強的銷售成長能力，利潤也得到了改善。所以，綜合來看，AM的第二季業績會比第一季更好。所以，現在就發生了。

We will now take our next question from Alex Yefremov from KeyBanc.

我們現在將回答 KeyBanc 的 Alex Yefremov 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, so waste sorting is one of the key steps in recycling. You talked about your experience was proprietary sorting process. So in terms of scale, what you've done so far in this area, how much of a scale increase is what you're going to be doing in France or other sites? How much of an increase of operational risk is it?

馬克，垃圾分類是回收的關鍵步驟之一。您之前提到過，你們的經驗是自主研發的分類流程。那麼，就規模而言，就你們目前在這方面所做的工作而言，在法國或其他地點，你們的規模會擴大多少？營運風險會增加多少？

Yes. There's really not much operational risk in the mixed processing part of cleaning up the feedstock before the plant and it's very low capital in the way to do it. So we've already -- are constructing the facility here for our sort of 110 KMT of inbound feedstock to this facility and the same larger scale facility will be built in Europe. What's interesting is it's modular. So as we look at this, there's an opportunity to actually do it in multiple locations to be more logistically efficient in how we source waste and collaborate with sourcing partners. So we're still debating on how much we do it on site versus closer to where the feedstock is being sourced to get a more streamlined stream moving across the road to us. So there are definitely some design options there with our sourcing partners or feedstock sources on how we're trying to think that through.

是的。在工廠前清理原料的混合處理環節，營運風險其實不大，而且成本也很低。我們已經在這裡建造了一座設施，用於處理大約11萬噸的進口原料，並將在歐洲建造同樣規模更大的設施。有趣的是，它是模組化的。因此，我們有機會在多個地點進行類似的處理，從而提高廢棄物採購和與採購合作夥伴合作的物流效率。因此，我們仍在討論在現場進行多少，還是在原料來源地附近進行，以便更有效率地將原料流過馬路。因此，我們正在與採購合作夥伴或原料來源討論一些設計方案，並嘗試進行綜合考量。

And a follow-up on rPET. What is your cost position relative to food-grade mechanical rPET? And on the pricing side, do you think your customers would be willing to pay a premium for chemically recycled PET versus mechanical rPET?

關於rPET，請問您的成本相對於食品級機械rPET如何？在定價方面，您認為您的客戶是否願意為化學回收PET支付比機械rPET更高的價格？

So our cost structures, we're not going to sort of get into debating and discussing sort of detailed cost structures. But what I can say is that when we look at our cost structure and the pricing which is being centered around the alternative material, which is mechanical recycled content, we are in a very good position to have spreads that will then be sort of locked in, in cost pass-through contracts to deliver a greater than 12% return.

所以，對於我們的成本結構，我們不會進行任何具體的辯論和討論。但我可以說的是，當我們審視我們的成本結構以及以替代材料（即機械再生材料）為中心的定價時，我們處於非常有利的位置，可以透過成本轉嫁合約鎖定利差，從而實現超過12%的回報。

From a premium point of view, when you think about the quality of mechanical recycle versus our molecular recycled product, our product is much higher quality because the nature of unzipping the polymer and purifying it allows us to then have identical intermediates to what we use today from fossil fuels. So the products we make both especially as well as PET will literally be identical, no compromise, right? There are quality compromises with mechanical recycle in haze and color and its limited ability to be recycled over time. So we think and believe that it's a more valuable product. Customers, I think, understand that.

從高端角度來看，當你比較機械回收和我們分子回收產品的品質時，我們的產品品質要高得多，因為解開聚合物並對其進行純化的過程使我們能夠獲得與當今化石燃料中使用的中間體完全相同的中間體。因此，我們生產的產品，尤其是PET，將完全一致，不會有任何妥協，對吧？機械回收在霧度和顏色方面會有所妥協，而且其長期回收能力有限。因此，我們認為並相信它是一種更有價值的產品。我想，客戶能夠理解這一點。

So -- but what's interesting is the way they -- many of them are looking at it is while our premium is going to be in this zone, it's actually likely to be a hedge against the risk of mechanical recycled PET being a lot more expensive. You got to remember, mechanical recycling can't remotely provide enough material for the recycled content targets the major brands have set for themselves in Europe and the U.S. So this supply-demand situation on the mechanical is going to continue to get tighter. And so we provide a reliable source of very high-quality product, and we believe that demands a reasonable premium.

所以——但有趣的是，他們——許多人看待這個問題的方式是，雖然我們的溢價會在這個區間，但這實際上可能是為了對沖機械回收PET價格大幅上漲的風險。你必須記住，機械回收根本無法提供足夠的材料來滿足歐洲和美國主要品牌為自己設定的再生材料含量目標。因此，機械回收的供需情勢將持續緊張。因此，我們提供可靠的高品質產品來源，我們相信這需要合理的溢價。

We'll now take our last question from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

我們現在來回答 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander 提出的最後一個問題。

Two quick ones. Just the level of urgency at customers about restocking, do you see it as more of a 2022 couple of quarters event? Or do you see it as a more drawn-out tailwind that spills into 2023? And can you give -- update your thinking on the carbon renewal platform, specifically, given the feedback you've had in the urgency, both political tailwinds and customer interest, what we should see on that front?

簡單問兩個問題。就客戶對補貨的緊迫程度而言，您認為這更像是2022年幾季的事情嗎？還是說，這是一個持續更​​長時間的順風期，會延續到2023年？您能否更新一下您對碳更新平台的看法？具體來說，考慮到您收到的關於緊迫性的回饋，包括政治方面的順風因素和客戶的興趣，我們應該在這方面看到什麼？

Sure. So on the inventory restocking question, presuming we've got a growing economy this year around the world, I think that the world is going to struggle to keep up with demand. So it's hard to see that anytime soon. We're going to -- the customers or Eastman for that matter, are going to get inventories back to where they should be for a more stable level of performance. So I think this could drag out through the year and go into next year, especially if the economy is reasonably good.

當然。關於庫存補充的問題，假設今年全球經濟持續成長，我認為全球將難以滿足需求。所以短期內很難看到這種情況發生。我們——無論是客戶，還是伊士曼——都會將庫存恢復到應有的水平，以實現更穩定的業績。所以我認為這種情況可能會持續到今年甚至明年，尤其是在經濟狀況良好的情況下。

When it comes to the CRT, lot of attention on the polyester renewal technology and where we're going with those circular platforms. But I'm equally excited about what we're doing with our cellulosics. That's a stream that's core to who Eastman is. It has been around for almost 100 years. And it's amazing to see how sustainability has changed the mindset around these products, right? They've always sold on performance. They've never sold on sustainability until 3 years ago. And now you've got all these great performance elements in different applications, from engineered thermoplastics to textiles to now new food service being compostable and microbeads being biodegradable. So you've got a tremendous amount of growth opportunity across that spectrum of businesses that drive growth in AM, AFP and fibers.

說到CRT，很多人關注聚酯再生技術以及我們這些循環平台的發展方向。但我同樣對我們在纖維素材料領域的發展感到興奮。纖維素材料是伊士曼的核心業務，已有近百年歷史。看到永續發展如何改變人們對這些產品的認知，真是令人驚嘆，不是嗎？伊士曼一直以來都以性能為賣點。直到三年前，他們才開始強調永續性。現在，所有這些卓越的性能元素都應用於不同的應用領域，從工程熱塑性塑膠到紡織品，再到現在可堆肥的新型食品服務以及可生物降解的微珠。因此，在推動積層製造、纖維增強塑膠和纖維業務成長的整個業務領域中，我們擁有巨大的成長機會。

And as I said earlier, we're confident in the technology. We've been operating it now for quite some time and has been processing plastic waste really well. There are reasonable capital ways to sort of expand that capacity and grow with all of these markets. And the margins in our cellulosics are some of, if not the highest margins in the company. So as we grow this stream, you're getting a nice mix upgrade, not just a volume growth and asset utilization benefit. So it's all good.

正如我之前所說，我們對這項技術充滿信心。我們已經運作了一段時間，處理塑膠垃圾的效果非常好。我們有合理的資本管道來擴大產能，並與所有這些市場共同發展。我們纖維素產品的利潤率在公司中名列前茅，甚至可以說是最高。因此，隨著我們擴大這項業務，您將獲得良好的產品組合升級，而不僅僅是產量成長和資產利用率提升。所以一切都很好。

So with that, I'd like to just wrap up and just make a couple of quick comments. We're really excited about our strategy to grow the company, believe in the specialty model, the circular platform, the strength of our cash. We think these are all differentiators. But what's incredibly important for me to mention and highlight right now is I couldn't be on this call talking about all of this if it wasn't for the employees we have around the world. They've encountered phenomenal challenges in the chaos that we've faced with this sort of snapback in demand and how to serve it and get through incredibly difficult logistics situation, supply chain situations, pushing our plants incredibly hard. And supporting all of that in every function across the company.

好了，我想就此結束，並簡單談幾點。我們對公司發展策略感到非常興奮，我們對專業化模式、循環平台以及雄厚的現金流充滿信心。我們認為這些都是我們與眾不同的因素。但現在，我必須要強調的是，如果沒有我們遍布全球的員工，我不可能在這場電話會議上談論這一切。在我們面臨這種需求反彈的混亂局面中，他們面臨著巨大的挑戰，他們知道如何應對這種困境，如何度過極其艱難的物流和供應鏈困境，如何大力推動我們的工廠運轉，以及如何在公司各個職能部門提供支援。

And at the same time, they were able to continue our specialty growth platforms of innovation across the company and add a circular platform on top of it. to position us for a very strong EPS growth this year and well positioned to keep it going as we go into the future. So I just want to thank all of them because with COVID and constraints in the work environment and, in particular, I want to thank the operators out there because they go into the plant every day since COVID started, managing in a very difficult operating environment, while having to wear a mask and follow all these safety protocols, that's incredibly difficult. And the real heroes in our company is the operators who showed up and kept customer supplied around the world every day. And they get my deepest appreciation out of everyone for what we've been able to do.

同時，他們能夠在整個公司範圍內延續我們創新的專業成長平台，並在其基礎上添加一個循環平台，使我們今年的每股收益能夠實現非常強勁的成長，並且能夠在未來保持這種成長勢頭。因此，我只想感謝他們所有人，因為新冠疫情和工作環境的限制，我特別要感謝那裡的操作員，因為自從新冠疫情開始以來，他們每天都進入工廠，在非常困難的操作環境中進行管理，同時必須戴著口罩並遵守所有這些安全協議，這非常困難。我們公司真正的英雄是那些每天出現並保持全球客戶供應的操作員。我向他們致以最深切的謝意，感謝我們所做的一切。

So with that, I'd love to thank you for -- complement all of them, and thank you for your interest in Eastman and have a good day.

因此，我要感謝你們——對它們表示讚賞，並感謝你們對伊士曼的關注，祝你們有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的通話到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以掛斷電話了。