伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2022 Eastman Chemical Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化工2022年第三季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議將在伊士曼網站www.eastman.com上進行現場直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將把電話轉交給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部門的Greg Riddle先生。先生，請講。

Thank you, Maxine, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝馬克辛，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、高級副總裁兼首席財務官威利·麥克萊恩 (Willie McLain) 以及投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Yesterday after market closed, we posted our third quarter 2022 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website on www.eastman.com.

昨天收盤後，我們在網站 www.eastman.com 的投資者部分發布了 2022 年第三季財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件、幻燈片和相關的準備好的評論。

Before we begin, I'll cover two items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our third quarter 2022 financial results news release, during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for full year 2021 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for third quarter 2022.

在開始之前，我將介紹兩點。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到一些關於我們計劃和預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已或將在我們2022年第三季度財務業績新聞稿、本次電話會議、之前的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的2021年全年10-K表格和即將提交的2022年第三季度10-Q表格。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the third quarter 2022 financial results news release.

其次，本報告提及的收益不包括某些非核心及非常規項目。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳及其他相關揭露，包括排除項目和調整後項目的描述，請參閱 2022 年第三季財務績效新聞稿。

As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we'll now go straight into Q&A. Maxine, please let's start with our first question.

由於我們昨晚已在網站上發布了幻燈片和準備好的發言稿，現在我們將直接進入問答環節。 Maxine，請我們先問第一個問題。

Your first question today comes from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

今天第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Congratulations on the announcement with Pepsi. Very exciting news. Maybe you could just talk about the balance of the customers at the facility. I don't know if you can name any of the other ones or just sort of tell us how many they are and are they contracted similarly at this point? Or what's left to do there?

恭喜您與百事可樂宣布合作。真是令人振奮的消息。或許您可以談談該工廠的客戶狀況。我不知道您能否列舉其他客戶，或告訴我們他們有多少客戶？目前他們是否簽訂了類似的合約？或是那裡還有哪些工作要做？

So Vincent, great to hear from you, and we're really incredibly excited about the Pepsi contract and their commitment. And it is a significant volume for that plant as the baseload for the plant. We have very active conversations going on with several other customers, but we're not in a position at this point to sort of talk about those discussions.

文森特，很高興收到你的來信。我們對百事可樂的合約和他們的承諾感到非常興奮。作為工廠的基載，這批貨物的產量相當可觀。我們正在與其他幾位客戶進行非常積極的溝通，但目前還不能透露這些細節。

But we do believe the Pepsi agreement, consistent with what we're attempting to achieve with the PET market, is a great endorsement and proof point about the value proposition that we can bring to solving the plastic waste crisis and create economic value for our shareholders at the same time. So we're excited about working with them going forward.

但我們確實相信，與百事可樂的協議與我們在PET市場的目標一致，這充分證明了我們能夠為解決塑膠垃圾危機帶來的價值主張，並同時為股東創造經濟價值。因此，我們非常期待未來能與他們繼續合作。

If I could just ask a question, get your point of view on all the destocking that's going on. I know from the prepared comments, there's some thought that hopefully will end by the end of the year. But what exactly are you hearing from customers in that regard? And how do you think we'll know that it's over other than it just being over? Like what signposts are you looking for?

我想問個問題，想了解您對目前正在進行的去庫存化的看法。我知道，從準備好的評論中，有人認為這種去庫存化有望在年底前結束。但您具體從消費者那裡聽到了什麼？除了「結束」之外，您認為我們還能如何知道去庫存化已經結束？例如，您在尋找什麼樣的跡象？

So it's a great question. And it's one that, as you know and everyone knows, it's a little difficult to call in the moment on what's going on in demand relative to destocking. And I think you got to take it market by market. So the place where we have the greatest headwind is in retail discretionary spend around the planet, especially in Europe and the U.S.

所以，這個問題問得很好。而且，正如你和大家所知，現在很難判斷需求與去庫存之間的關係。我認為你必須根據每個市場的情況來判斷。我們面臨的最大阻力是全球範圍內的零售可自由支配支出，尤其是在歐洲和美國。

What you had happened, I think, and it's been well documented is, we all knew there was going to be a shift from people moving back to more services, probably leisure from sort of just buying consumer goods in the COVID situation. But I don't think anyone really understood the significance of that, combined with extreme inflation on how much the pivot could turn into being. So people stay committed to travel, as we all know, from the airlines. But with this extreme inflation, affordability for everything else in our life was very constrained. And so they've really cut back on anything that's a discretionary spend.

我認為，你所發生的事情，而且有充分的記錄表明，我們都知道，在新冠疫情期間，人們會從購買消費品轉向更多服務，例如休閒娛樂。但我認為沒有人真正理解這一點的重要性，再加上極端的通貨膨脹，這種轉變會在多大程度上實現。所以，正如我們所知，人們仍然堅持旅行，例如乘坐航空公司的航班。但在這種極端通膨的影響下，我們生活中其他所有東西的負擔能力都受到了極大的限制。所以，他們真的削減了所有可自由支配的開支。

And then you had all these ships loaded with all kinds of consumer goods caught on the ocean, caught in ports, and it all showed up in the second quarter, and you saw Walmart, Target, Best Buy, et cetera, have a huge problem on retail inventory to sales that continues to now. Unfortunately, the wholesale chain supplying it doesn't have that much of an inventory, but you still have a huge amount of destocking occurring at the retail level. And you can see that flowing through and impacting some of our customers like Whirlpool or Electrolux and the announcements that they have out there.

然後，你會看到滿載各種消費品的船隻在海上、港口被捕獲，所有這些都在第二季度顯現出來。你會看到沃爾瑪、塔吉特、百思買等零售商的零售庫存與銷售額的比率嚴重失衡，這種情況持續至今。不幸的是，為其供貨的批發連鎖店庫存並不多，但零售層面仍在進行大量的去庫存化。你可以看到，這種影響正在蔓延，並影響我們的一些客戶，例如惠而浦或伊萊克斯，以及他們發布的公告。

So you get a pretty significant decline that's both the demand and a significant destocking event that's occurring as we are in the fourth quarter. And I'd say that's the one part of the market. It's a little hard to call to say when that sort of combined destocking demand situation plays itself out.

所以，你會看到一個相當顯著的下降，這既是需求下降，也是第四季發生的重大去庫存事件。我認為這是市場的一部分。很難說這種去庫存需求的綜合效應何時會結束。

When you look at the broader set of what's going on, there are other factors impacting the market. So you've got Europe in stagflation, where high energy costs and high inflation is driving a drop in consumer demand, but energy costs are staying high. You've got China with a no-COVID policy constraining consumer behavior and a B&C industry that's been in trouble for over a year. And the U.S., building construction market is not doing well either as you can see in all the housing data that's been coming out recently, even in the third quarter GDP number. So that impacts a lot of demand across our portfolio.

從更廣泛的角度來看，還有其他因素在影響市場。例如，歐洲正處於滯膨狀態，高能源成本和高通膨導致消費需求下降，但能源成本仍居高不下。中國則實施了「零新冠」政策，限制了消費者行為，而房地產和消費品產業也陷入了困境一年多。美國的建築市場表現也不樂觀，從最近發布的所有房屋數據，甚至第三季的GDP數據都能看出這一點。因此，這嚴重影響了我們投資組合的許多需求。

The B&C is not off as much, especially in North America. It's quite sort of -- there's a lot of momentum in that market of houses still being completed and painted and appliances being brought forward, but you can see that coming off as you go into next year. And then you even have even stable markets that -- like a P&G and other markets out there who are doing well, but they're still looking at their inventory and going to destock high-cost inventory to generate cash for the end of the year and position themselves for lower prices in the future.

B&C 市場下滑幅度不大，尤其是在北美。情況相當不錯——這個市場目前勢頭強勁，房屋仍在竣工、粉刷，家電也提前到貨，但進入明年，這種勢頭會逐漸減弱。甚至有些市場比較穩定——例如寶潔和其他表現良好的市場，他們仍在關注庫存，並計劃去除高成本庫存，以便在年底前獲得現金，為未來的降價做好準備。

So you've got modest destocking going on in stable markets that I think will play itself out by the end of the year. You've got Europe and China, which has been challenged for a while, so that destocking, I think, is largely playing itself out by the end of the year. The U.S. has more in the earlier phase of that destocking and change for what's going on in the marketplace. So those are sort of the way we see it around the world.

因此，穩定的市場正在經歷溫和的去庫存化，我認為到年底會逐漸顯現。歐洲和中國已經面臨一段時間的挑戰，所以我認為，去庫存化到年底基本上會逐漸顯現。美國則較處於去庫存化的早期階段，市場狀況正在改變。所以，這些就是我們在全球範圍內看到的情況。

And then you've got positives, right? So the automotive trends are good. You've got recovery that we're already seeing as a benefit in the third quarter and sequential improvements into the fourth quarter. You've got the EV trends where we make an exceptionally large amount of money relative to an ICE car, 2.5, 3x as much value. So as those are becoming more part of the mix, that gives us another mix upgrade. And you've got consumers that are still in a financial -- consumers in a financial system are still relatively healthy that sort of balances out some of these trends.

然後你看到了積極的方面，對吧？汽車產業的趨勢很好。我們已經看到復甦，這在第三季是一個好消息，在第四季也出現了持續的改善。電動車的趨勢也很好，相對於燃油車，我們的利潤非常高，是燃油汽車的2.5到3倍。因此，隨著電動車在產品組合中的地位越來越高，這又為我們帶來了一次產品組合的升級。而且，金融體系中的消費者仍然相對健康，這在某種程度上平衡了這些趨勢。

So we think that a good amount, greater than 50% of destocking, plays itself out through the end of the fourth quarter. And so that means as you look at next year, with the destocking being more behind us and returning to sort of what we're thinking about as mild recession terms, demand improves in a meaningful way as you get past the fourth quarter from a primary market demand point of view. And then on top of that, as we look at next year, if we get innovation happening across our marketplace, that's going to drive a lot of growth. And you've got the lack of the outages that we had this year that hit us by about $100 million of missed volume mix that put us well below market demand this year. So there's a lot of upside in that available capacity and a lower planned shutdown schedule in a meaningful way next year that gives us more volume to sell.

因此，我們認為，到第四季末，超過50%的去庫存化將逐漸結束。這意味著，展望明年，隨著去庫存化進程逐漸結束，並回歸到我們所認為的溫和衰退階段，從主要市場需求的角度來看，第四季度過後需求將顯著改善。此外，展望明年，如果我們的市場能夠創新，這將推動強勁成長。而且，今年的停產事件減少了，導致我們損失了約1億美元的產量，遠低於市場需求。因此，可用產能和明年計劃停產時間的減少將帶來巨大的成長潛力，這將增加我們的銷售量。

So there's a lot of reasons that as we get through this quarter, some of this destocking behind us, that volume next year will be better, even in a mild recession.

因此，有許多理由可以證明，隨著我們度過本季度，一些去庫存化已經結束，即使在溫和的經濟衰退中，明年的產量也會更好。

Our next question comes from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, on the $150 million of cost you've targeted for next year, how much is structural and how much is somewhat temporary? Does that include the lower shutdown costs or turnaround costs next year versus this year?

馬克，您明年計劃的1.5億美元成本中，有多少是結構性的，有多少是暫時性的？這是否包括明年相比今年更低的停工成本或週轉成本？

David, thanks for the question. This is Willie. As we think about the $150 million, I would look at it in two buckets. Roughly $100 million, we expect to be on the manufacturing front. And obviously, as we've talked about inflation being a key factor, as you think about the demand that we had in the first half of 2022, along with the outages, that's driven a lot of inefficiency. And we expect that to be a large component as you think about contractors, as you think about the level over time. So I do view that as structural as we get back to operating in a, call it, a more controlled demand environment that we'll be taking a significant amount of that type of cost out of our system.

戴維，謝謝你的提問。我是威利。說到這1.5億美元，我會從兩個角度來考慮。我們預計大約1億美元將用於製造方面。顯然，正如我們之前提到的，通貨膨脹是一個關鍵因素，考慮到我們在2022年上半年的需求，以及停電，這導致了大量效率低下。我們預計，考慮到承包商，考慮到未來水平，這將成為很大的組成部分。因此，我確實認為，隨著我們回到一個更可控的需求環境中運營，這將是結構性因素，我們將從系統中大幅削減此類成本。

There will be, I'll call it, a lower amount of planned turnarounds. That will be, I'll call it, a smaller portion of that $100 million that we see in the manufacturing space. As it comes to the nonmanufacturing, that's about 1/3 of the actions that we see. And in many cases, what I would say is the level of consulting spend discretionary, so that's more of, I would say, variable versus structural in the current environment as we expect to continue to invest in the growth programs, as was just highlighted. With the third project gaining momentum with our circular investments, we will balance that out of $150 million structural/discretionary to ensure that we can continue those investments.

我稱之為計劃中的扭轉項目數量會減少。這部分資金將占我們在製造業領域看到的1億美元資金的一小部分。至於非製造業，這部分資金大約占我們所看到的行動的三分之一。在很多情況下，我想說的是諮詢支出的水平是可自由支配的，所以在當前環境下，這更多的是可變的，而不是結構性的，因為我們預計將繼續投資於增長項目，正如剛才強調的那樣。隨著第三個項目透過我們的循環投資獲得發展勢頭，我們將從1.5億美元的結構性/可自由支配資金中平衡這部分資金，以確保我們能夠繼續進行這些投資。

Very good. And Mark, just Slide 12, looking at initial '23 guidance perhaps. It looks like you're looking at perhaps a modest, maybe 5%-type EPS growth year-over-year. Is that in that ballpark?

非常好。馬克，這張投影片大概是第12張，大概是2023年的初步業績指引。看起來你預計每股盈餘年增可能在5%左右。大概是這個水平吧？

Well, good question, Dave. We're not going to be giving quantitative guidance about 2023 versus this year, which we still have to finish out. But what I would say is we look at the tailwinds and the headwinds, in a mild recessionary environment, we think we're in a good position.

嗯，戴夫，問得好。我們不會給出2023年與今年的量化指引，因為今年我們還沒完成。但我想說的是，我們看看順風和逆風，在溫和的衰退環境下，我們認為我們處於有利地位。

It's obviously a very dynamic time right now, whether it's what's going to happen in China, the Ukraine war or inflation, et cetera. There's a lot of uncertainty, and that certainly goes back to a trade war in '19 and a pandemic in 2020. What we know is the market is challenged, as I just said, around the short term in the recessionary environment that the manufacturing world seems to be entering. And I do think a lot of the destocking will play itself out.

顯然，現在正處於一個非常動盪的時期，無論是中國局勢、烏克蘭戰爭或通貨膨脹等等。不確定性因素很多，當然可以追溯到2019年的貿易戰和2020年的疫情。正如我剛才所說，我們知道，在製造業似乎即將進入衰退的環境中，短期內市場將面臨挑戰。我確實認為，去庫存化將逐步顯現。

So we're really focused on what we can control. And I think the volume and growth side of things is in a good position with over $400 million of new business revenue closes on innovation. We've got a lot of tailwinds, whether it's the multifunctional layers growing and EVs, the tremendous success we're having in our paint protection films, growth we're seeing in Tetrashield and food and beverage cans. Really seeing a lot of growth continuing even in the semiconductor environment for our high-purity solvents as we expand the product portfolio there in sustainable coating items, et cetera. So a lot of innovative growth going.

所以我們真正專注於我們能夠掌控的事情。我認為，業務量和成長方面都處於良好狀態，超過4億美元的新業務收入來自創新。我們有許多順風順水的因素，無論是多功能塗層和電動車的成長，還是我們在漆面保護膜方面取得的巨大成功，以及Tetrashield和食品飲料罐的成長。即使在半導體領域，隨著我們擴大在永續塗料領域的產品組合，我們的高純度溶劑也持續保持強勁成長。因此，我們正在實現巨大的創新成長。

And I do think there's a meaningful tailwind that comes out of the lack of unplanned outages that we had this year next year, and then less planned outages obviously helps as well. So that's one component.

我確實認為，今年非計劃停機事件減少，對明年來說是一個有意義的利好，而且計劃停機事件減少顯然也會有所幫助。所以這是一個因素。

An equally important component is spread improvement, right? So when you think about what we've been through in the last 2 years, right, you had about $1.3 billion of inflation in 2021, and we had pricing in place that caught most of it, but we still had some spread compression in the specialties in the back half of '21. So when we started this year, we had a view that we're going to have $500 million of inflation this year. We have pricing in place to deliver a much greater than $100 million of spread improvement in the specialties. We didn't plan on having another $900 million of inflation through the rest of the year, so a total of $1.4 billion. When you sort of take our view of the fourth quarter here, it's a significant headwind.

同樣重要的因素是利差改善，對吧？想想我們過去兩年的經歷，2021年通膨約13億美元，我們的定價機制已經吸收了大部分通膨影響，但在21年下半年，特種化學品的利差仍然有所壓縮。所以，今年年初的時候，我們預計通膨將達到5億美元。但我們已經制定了定價機制，以實現特種化學品利差改善遠超過1億美元。我們原本計劃在今年剩餘時間不出現9億美元的通膨，所以總計14億美元。從我們對第四季的展望來看，這是一個巨大的阻力。

And the teams have done a phenomenally good job of keeping pricing going with the strength of our value propositions and the specialties to keep pace with all of that inflation. And of course, Chemical Intermediates has done well in the first half of the year. But while we kept pace, we didn't recover the spreads that we were aiming to get from what we sort of gave up in the back half of '21. So there's that opportunity that's still in front of us. And with inflation being as high as it is now, that opportunity is much greater in how raw material and distribution costs could fall and what the spread tailwind will be next year as we're going to continue to have very strong discipline in pricing, because we are committed to getting our margins back to 2019 levels before all this inflation chaos started. So I think that's a pretty significant upside.

我們的團隊出色地完成了工作，憑藉我們強大的價值主張和專業技術，我們保持了價格穩定，從而跟上了通貨膨脹的步伐。當然，化學中間體業務在上半年表現良好。儘管我們保持了成長勢頭，但我們未能恢復到2021年下半年放棄的價差目標。因此，我們仍然有機會。鑑於目前的通貨膨脹率如此之高，原材料和分銷成本如何下降，以及明年價差的順風如何，我們的機會就更大了。我們將繼續嚴格控制定價，因為我們致力於將利潤率恢復到2019年通貨膨脹混亂開始之前的水平。所以我認為這是一個相當顯著的優勢。

I think an equally significant upside is a real change in the Fibers business. As we've told you, we faced a lot of inflation and increasing operating costs in the Fibers business in '21 and '22, and that's pushed our margins down pretty significantly. And there was a recognition with our customers already this year that those costs needed to be recovered for us to be a reliable and sustainable supplier to them. And you've already seen us have a lot of price increases this year, but it's only covered a portion of that inflation as far as the recovery goes. And we've already succeeded in locking in contracts with a significant portion of our customers with prices that will allow us to significantly improve our earnings relative to this year. In fact, so much so, that we believe it would offset what we've said in our prepared remarks about the normalization of Chemical Intermediates.

我認為纖維業務的真正改變也會帶來同樣重要的利多。正如我們之前所說，2021年和2022年，纖維業務​​面臨嚴重的通貨膨脹和營運成本上漲，這導致我們的利潤率大幅下降。今年，我們的客戶已經意識到，我們需要收回這些成本，才能成為他們可靠且可持續的供應商。您已經看到我們今年大幅提價，但就復甦而言，這只能覆蓋部分通膨。我們已經成功地與相當一部分客戶簽訂了合同，這些合同的價格將使我們能夠顯著提高盈利，使其與今年相比有所提升。事實上，我們認為，這足以抵消我們在準備好的發言稿中提到的化學中間體正常化所帶來的影響。

So that's a significant improvement in earnings, taking us back many years into where that business will sit and be much more sustainable, more profitable, more cash-driven business. And then as we just discussed, we got $150 million of cost reductions. So a lot of tailwinds that offset those headwinds that we have with pension costs and gross spend and currency so -- and interest expense. So net-net, I think in a mild recession, will be greater than this year, but I'm not about to quantify how much.

所以，這是盈利方面的顯著提升，讓我們回到多年前的水平，成為更具可持續性、盈利能力更強、更以現金驅動的業務。正如我們剛才討論的那樣，我們的成本削減了1.5億美元。這抵消了退休金成本、總支出、貨幣匯率以及利息支出等不利因素的影響。所以，我認為，在溫和的經濟衰退時期，淨利會比今年更高，但我不會量化具體數字。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan Chase.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

What's the financial terms of your agreement with Pepsi? How do you price the material to them? Or how do they buy it from you?

你們和百事可樂的協議財務條款是怎麼樣的？你們如何為百事可樂定價？或他們如何從你們這裡購買？

Thanks, Jeff. So we're very excited about this commitment with Pepsi. And we don't discuss the specific contract terms with any of our customers. And in this case, in particular, we view our contracting approach for the circular economy as a competitive advantage.

謝謝，傑夫。我們對與百事可樂的這項承諾感到非常興奮。我們不會與任何客戶討論具體的合約條款。尤其在這種情況下，我們將循環經濟的承包方式視為競爭優勢。

What I can tell you is the contract did align with our circular contracting strategy that we've discussed with investors in the past. These agreements really demonstrate that molecular recycling is an essential part of solving the plastic waste crisis in sort of collaboration with mechanical recycling industry. And we really view this Pepsi commitment, which is one of the most significant and most successful brands in the world, that they see the value in what we're doing, both from an environmental point of view, and it also demonstrates that we have an economically viable platform when we meet these terms in this contract strategy.

我可以告訴你的是，這份合約確實符合我們過去與投資者討論過的循環承包策略。這些協議確實表明，分子回收是與機械回收業合作解決塑膠垃圾危機的重要組成部分。百事可樂是世界上最重要、最成功的品牌之一，我們非常重視這份承諾，他們看到了我們所做工作的價值，不僅從環境角度來看，也表明當我們滿足這份合約策略中的這些條款時，我們擁有一個經濟可行的平台。

So when you think about the principles that are behind this contract strategy for these types of contracts, we will have margin stability in how the product is sold to them and it's structured relative to what goes on in the marketplace. And these contracts will be long term and have a -- in this case, a sufficient base load for us to commit to this third plant. So we can see a clear vision of the cash flow necessary to provide appropriate return on investment on this.

所以，當你思考這類合約策略背後的原則時，我們會發現，產品銷售方式以及與市場行情相關的結構，將確保利潤的穩定性。這些合約將是長期的，並且——在這種情況下，有足夠的基本負荷讓我們投入第三家工廠。因此，我們可以清楚地看到實現適當投資回報所需的現金流。

So it's a really exciting situation we find ourselves in. And I would say that back to Vince's question, there's a lot of companies out there who are excited. We have over 1,000 SSOs already for our first plant. We're going to be starting up in the spring of next year on a wide range of specialty products. The brand engagement in Europe is incredibly strong, both in specialty as well as in PET.

所以，我們現在的處境真的非常令人興奮。回到文斯的問題，我想說，很多公司都對此感到興奮。我們第一家工廠已經擁有超過1000個SSO。我們將於明年春季開始生產各種特殊產品。無論是特種產品或PET產品，歐洲的品牌參與度都非常高。

And I think it's really a significant proof point when we get this contract, that there has to be a pathway for hard-to-recycle materials back to food grade to sort of truly have a circular economy in that marketplace, that we can partner with mechanical recyclers. It's an essential part of solving this problem, that we're going to do this at a lower carbon footprint and make sure that we have a very minimal impact on the communities that we operate in.

我認為，當我們獲得這份合約時，這真的是一個重要的證明，證明必須有一條途徑將難以回收的材料恢復到食品級，才能在市場上真正實現循環經濟，證明我們可以與機械回收商合作。解決這個問題的關鍵在於，我們要以更低的碳足跡來做這件事，並確保對我們營運所在社區的影響最小。

And importantly, we need to make sure we don't move to other materials. Plastic is by far the most carbon-efficient product out there for these applications. And if we don't use plastic, then we're going to have a huge impact negatively on climate if we start moving to glass, aluminum as well as other products. And frankly, in many applications, there just isn't an alternative material that's going to work for the brands. So for us, we think this is a big part of the circular economy, and we feel great about working with Pepsi as an anchor client.

重要的是，我們需要確保不會轉向其他材料。塑膠是目前為止在這些應用領域中碳效率最高的產品。如果我們不使用塑料，然後開始使用玻璃、鋁以及其他產品，就會對氣候產生巨大的負面影響。坦白說，在許多應用中，根本沒有其他材料適合這些品牌。因此，對我們來說，我們認為這是循環經濟的重要組成部分，我們很高興能與百事可樂這樣的主要客戶合作。

Okay. And then for my follow-up, in Chemical Intermediates, are you closing one of your smaller crackers permanently? Or what are you doing with your closure? And can you discuss what's going on with propylene spreads in that it doesn't look like people can make money taking propane to propylene at this particular point in time? How is the propane/propylene dynamic affected Eastman during the year relative to last year or now relative to previous quarters?

好的。接下來我想問一下，在化學中間體業務方面，你們會永久關閉其中一家規模較小的裂解廠嗎？或者說，你們關閉這些裂解廠後會做什麼？能否談談丙烯價差的情況？目前看來，人們似乎無法透過丙烷制丙烯獲利。今年丙烷/丙烯的動態與去年同期相比，或與前幾季相比，對伊士曼有何影響？

Okay. Jeff, this is Willie. I'll answer the first part of the question as we think about our operations. So as we've highlighted earlier, given the -- one, the amount of inflation that we've seen this year in working capital and through raw materials, we're looking at that in concert with the demand that we see, and we've highlighted the destocking that we expect -- have seen in late Q3 and we're seeing here in Q4. So as we're in a planned turnaround for one of our crackers at our Longview, Texas site, we're taking that opportunity to keep it down the remainder of the year to ensure that in our olefin stream, that we bring our inventories back in line and that we also move through some of the higher cost, both from an energy and raw material front and get that through this year so that we're better positioned in 2023 from both an operation and supply chain and working capital standpoint.

好的。傑夫，我是威利。在我們思考營運的同時，我將回答問題的第一部分。正如我們之前強調的那樣，考慮到今年營運資本和原材料方面的通膨水平，我們將其與我們看到的需求結合起來考慮，並且我們已經強調了我們預期的去庫存化——我們已經在第三季度末和第四季度看到了這種情況。因此，由於我們位於德克薩斯州朗維尤工廠的一座裂解裝置正在計劃檢修，我們將藉此機會在今年剩餘時間內控制產能，以確保烯烴產品的庫存恢復正常，並在今年內消化掉能源和原材料方面的一些高成本，以便我們在2023年從運營、供應鏈和營運資本的角度都處於更有利的位置。

As we think about propylene and propylene margins, what I would highlight is, again, we continue to optimize our operations. We've made the investment in the refinery-grade propylene. That is continuing to play off quite well as we see the current economic environment. And also, again, our propylene derivatives have continued to perform strongly in the first half. And while those margins are normalizing some in the second half, as we had expected, this is still a very strong part of Chemical Intermediates and is delivering the cash for the company.

說到丙烯和丙烯利潤率，我想強調的是，我們持續優化營運。我們對煉油級丙烯進行了投資。鑑於當前的經濟環境，這部分投資持續發揮良好的作用。此外，我們的丙烯衍生物在上半年持續表現強勁。雖然這些利潤率在下半年有所恢復，正如我們預期的那樣，但這仍然是化學中間體業務中非常強勁的一個部分，並為公司帶來了現金流。

Yes. I'd also add, Jeff, that our teams on the commercial side are doing just an excellent job of pricing discipline. So we don't sell propylene, right? We sell derivatives. And those prices, we were able to hold those prices flat to Q2 sequentially through the third quarter. There will certainly be prices coming off, and some of these customer contracts or cost pass-through contracts who are tied to propylene that -- so you'll see prices starting to come down in the fourth quarter. But our view is pricing discipline in times of sort of economic transition like this is incredibly important versus chasing demand that's frankly not there because they're destocking anyway.

是的。傑夫，我還想補充一點，我們商業團隊在定價方面做得非常好。這麼說來，我們不賣丙烯了，對吧？我們賣的是衍生性商品。這些衍生性商品的價格，我們能夠在整個第三季保持與第二季持平。價格肯定會下降，一些與丙烯相關的客戶合約或成本轉嫁合約——所以你會看到價格在第四季度開始下降。但我們認為，在這種經濟轉型時期，定價紀律至關重要，而不是追逐需求。坦白說，需求並不存在，因為他們正在去庫存。

So from an earnings and cash point of view, we're managing a trade-off between volume and price in a market where we're waiting to see where primary demand really settles and holding on to value as long as we can.

因此，從收益和現金的角度來看，我們正在管理市場中數量和價格之間的權衡，我們正在等待觀察主要需求的真正穩定，並盡可能長時間地保持價值。

Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的達菲·菲舍爾。

Yes. First question, Mark, when you look at what your expected sales are for the fourth quarter and look at what your planned operating rates are, did you bring operating rates down enough that you don't think you'll build inventory? Or what will you do with your inventory throughout fourth quarter if the numbers hit the budget you have planned?

是的。第一個問題，馬克，當你查看第四季度的預期銷售額和計劃開工率時，你是否已經將開工率降低到足以讓你認為不會增加庫存的程度？或者，如果第四季銷售額達到了你計劃的預算，你會如何處理庫存？

Duffy, we are expecting -- this is Willie, we're expecting a decline in sequential revenue and volume numbers. We're adjusting our operating rates not only for that, but we're looking to take our inventory quantities down somewhere between 5% and 10% on top of that. Obviously, we've highlighted the steps that we're taking within our olefin streams, but we're managing that across the enterprise and the portfolio. The utilization rates and the impact on our P&L from that is baked into our guidance.

達菲，我們預計——我是威利，我們預計收入和銷量將環比下降。我們不僅會因此調整開工率，而且還計劃在此基礎上將庫存量降低5%到10%。顯然，我們已經強調了我們在烯烴業務方面採取的措施，但我們正在整個企業和產品組合中進行管理。利用率及其對損益的影響已納入我們的預期。

At this point, what I would also highlight is what we see here in October from an order and demand pattern is basically in line with our expectation as we've outlined.

此時，我還要強調的是，我們從 10 月的訂單和需求模式中看到的情況基本上符合我們的預期。

Yes. We made a decision that cash is an incredibly important part of any company and certainly in our value proposition. And it's obviously very challenging here when it comes to cash with working capital and all the inflation that we're trying to manage. But we are focused on generating cash in the fourth quarter and taking the actions necessary to do that as our priority and positions us well for next year in how we sort of drive forward and run our plants next year well; as well as position for lower-cost raw material that we're going to be purchasing; that we believe we already see the trends now in the marketplace of raw materials coming off, that we'll see already flowing through in the first quarter and how to position ourselves even better for that in January.

是的。我們認定現金對任何公司都至關重要，當然也是我們價值主張的重要組成部分。而現金、營運資本以及我們試圖控制的通貨膨脹顯然非常具有挑戰性。但我們專注於在第四季度創造現金，並採取必要行動來實現這一目標，這是我們的首要任務，也為明年如何推進和良好運營工廠做好了準備；同時也為我們將要採購的低成本原材料做好了準備；我們相信，我們已經看到原材料市場趨勢正在顯現，我們將在第一季度看到這些趨勢的出現，以及如何在明年一月份更好地為之做好準備。

Okay. And then the issues you've had with shipping out of the East Coast, the port issues, what's the resolution to that? Have you found kind of alternate routes but maybe more expensive ones doing trucking or rail to get to other ports? As we get into the first half of next year, is that something that's going to continue to be a headwind for you guys? Or do you have solutions outside of -- again, hopefully, the ports themselves just getting better over time?

好的。那麼，你們在東岸航運方面遇到的問題，也就是港口問題，你們的解決方案是什麼？你們有沒有找到其他路線，例如卡車或鐵路，但成本可能更高，可以把貨物運到其他港口？到了明年上半年，這些問題會繼續困擾著你們嗎？或者你們還有其他解決方案嗎？當然，希望港口本身能隨著時間的推移而不斷改善。

First of all, the ports themselves are getting better. And with the reduction in demand in the U.S. as well as in other economies, the amount of trade occurring on a lot of what we were shipping in containers out of those ports has lowered itself. So the logistic constraints are not a major factor in the fourth quarter, and we don't expect it next year. In fact, we expect to see a significant distribution cost tailwind for us next year relative to this year for two reasons.

首先，港口本身正在好轉。隨著美國以及其他經濟體需求的減少，我們從這些港口運出的大量貨櫃貨物的貿易量也隨之下降。因此，物流限制在第四季不會成為主要因素，我們預計明年也不會。事實上，我們預計明年的配送成本將比今年大幅下降，原因有二。

One, with demand as tight as it was and all the challenges we had in keeping customers supplied, we use a lot of different expensive modes of transportation to make sure we honored our commitments to our customers. And so those modes were a higher cost to us, some of which we passed on in pricing, but some of which is something we're not going to use next year and pick up a cheaper position in how we transport products from a mode point of view. And then, of course, distribution rates are coming down. You can see it on major routes like the dramatic drop in container costs between China and here.

首先，由於需求緊張，以及我們在確保客戶供應方面面臨的許多挑戰，我們使用了各種昂貴的運輸方式，以確保履行對客戶的承諾。因此，這些運輸方式的成本較高，其中一些我們透過定價轉嫁了，但有些我們明年不會再使用，而是從運輸方式的角度，選擇更便宜的產品運輸方式。當然，配送費率也在下降。你可以在主要航線上看到這一點，例如中國和這裡之間的貨櫃成本大幅下降。

So we really do think this goes from a significant logistics constraint on volume limitations this year that we couldn't serve, even though demand was there and very high modes and rates to a meaningful tailwind next year as we optimize our operations and our distribution to a sort of softer environment.

因此，我們確實認為，今年，儘管存在需求，並且運輸方式和費率都很高，但我們仍無法滿足運輸量限制這一重大物流限制，而隨著我們優化運營和分銷，進入一種更為溫和的環境，明年，這一限制將成為一個有意義的順風。

Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

One of the more surprising thing, I want to come back to the Fibers contracts for 2023 because that seems impressive that you're able to drive that much profit growth already signed up for next year. And also in the prepared remarks, it said that it's going to bring the levels back to sustainable investment levels. Are you indicating that perhaps we might see capacity expansions in this business? And any other color you could give us in terms of why we're seeing such a step change for 2023 would be helpful.

更令人驚訝的是，我想回到2023年的光纖合同，因為你們能夠推動明年已經簽訂的利潤增長如此之快，這令人印象深刻。而且在準備好的演講稿中，你們表示將把利潤水準恢復到可持續的投資水準。您是否暗示我們可能會看到這項業務的產能擴張？您能否解釋為什麼我們在2023年會看到如此顯著的變化？

Yes. So to be clear, we're not intending to add tow capacity. So let's just make sure we're clear about that. When we talked about getting sustainable margin levels, it's to be a reliable supplier. When you look at the situation, we had a view of the market declining 2% to 3% in tow year-over-year, and it's now changed to being sort of flat to down 1%, partly because the overall market just isn't declining as much as people thought and equally important, the heat-not-burn market is growing phenomenally fast. So companies like Philip Morris and the other brands had these very successful heat-not-burn products, and they still use quite a bit of tow.

是的。要先明確的是，我們無意增加絲束產能。所以，我們一定要明確這一點。我們談到實現可持續的利潤水平時，指的是成為可靠的供應商。從目前的情況來看，我們之前預計絲束市場將年減2%到3%，現在預測基本持平或下降1%。部分原因是整體市場並沒有像人們想像的那麼下滑，同樣重要的是，加熱不燃燒捲菸市場正在以驚人的速度成長。像菲利普莫里斯和其他品牌這樣的公司，擁有非常成功的加熱不燃燒產品，但他們仍然使用相當多的絲束。

And so thinking it hadn't included how that would offset the tow decline in sort of the traditional products. So when you put it all together, you've got a much more stable end market situation than I think what people expected.

所以我認為它沒有考慮到這將如何抵消傳統產品銷售的下滑。所以，綜合考慮所有這些因素，我認為終端市場的情況比人們預期的要穩定得多。

Second, and this is unique to Eastman is textile growth has been fantastic, and we continue to see strong interest in our product. When you think about a product that's made from half certified -- sustainably certified forest wood pulp and the other half now being recycled plastic, it's just to create value proposition on beginning of life. And in the life concerns about microfibers from textiles ending up in the ocean are certified to biodegrade, that's a very strong value proposition for the marketplace, and we're seeing just great brand engagement on that. So you've got growth in that, that's more than offsetting the decline in tow that we see. So our assets are tight.

其次，伊士曼的獨特之處在於，紡織業務的成長勢頭強勁，我們持續看到市場對我們產品的濃厚興趣。想想看，一款產品一半由經過認證的永續認證森林木漿製成，另一半則由再生塑膠製成，這只是為了在產品生命週期的初始階段就創造價值主張。此外，紡織品中微纖維最終流入海洋的擔憂已得到生物降解認證，這對市場來說是一個非常強大的價值主張，我們看到品牌對此的積極參與。因此，我們在這方面取得了成長，這足以抵消我們觀察到的拖曳業務的下滑。因此，我們的資產非常緊張。

And then you combine those two facts with less supply being available because what we have done actually is repurposed some of our tow assets to making textiles, right? So that took some capacity out of the marketplace. Other companies have optimized their capacity, whether it's in Mexico or now because of the Ukraine war in Russia, you've got less supply than existed several years ago. So in that conversation, our customers really want to make sure we're going to be a very highly reliable supplier to them to meet their needs. And for that to be the case, we need margins at a better level than where they're at right now. So we're able to get price increases this year and add on pretty meaningful price increases next year to get us back to more appropriate margins for this business. And so it's...

然後，將這兩個因素結合起來，再加上供應減少，因為我們實際上已經將部分拖曳資產重新用於生產紡織品，對吧？這導致市場出現了一些產能流失。其他公司也優化了產能，無論是在墨西哥，還是現在由於烏克蘭戰爭，供應量都比幾年前減少。因此，在這種對話中，我們的客戶確實希望確保我們成為他們高度可靠的供應商，並能夠滿足他們的需求。要做到這一點，我們需要比他們現在更高的利潤率。因此，我們今年能夠漲價，明年還會大幅漲價，以恢復我們業務更合適的利潤率。所以…

Well, they say there's no business like tow business.

嗯，他們說沒有什麼生意比拖車生意更好。

Yes. So just one thing I wanted to mention is that the contracts also include provisions to adjust for changes in variable cost, which we didn't have in the past. So that makes them a little bit more predictable too, on how they're going to perform.

是的。我想提一下的是，合約中還包含根據可變成本變化進行調整的條款，這在過去是沒有的。這也使得他們的業績表現更可預測。

Got you. Got you. And I also wanted to ask about, in this environment, it's very helpful to have an asset footprint that skews more towards the U.S. than Europe. But you still have a lot of assets over in that part of the world. We're starting to see some other companies talk about rationalizing capacity in that part of the world. And I'm wondering what your thoughts are on the long-term viability of your assets over in Europe.

明白了，明白了。我還想問一下，在這種環境下，將資產佈局更多地集中在美國而不是歐洲非常有幫助。但你們在那個地區仍然有很多資產。我們開始看到一些其他公司談論合理化該地區的產能。我想知道你們對你們在歐洲資產的長期可行性有何看法。

So first, when it comes to Eastman, about 75% of our production from a volume point of view is in the United States, right? So that's a significant competitive advantage for us on an energy cost basis relative to other markets. And you have to remember that 55% of revenue is outside the U.S. And most of what we sell in Europe and China, in particular, are our specialties. So we, in how we serve our global markets, are in a very strong cost position. Obviously, currency is not helping at the moment. But long term, I think that energy position is going to be a strong competitive advantage.

首先，就伊士曼而言，從產量來看，我們大約75%的產量在美國，對嗎？所以，相對於其他市場，這在能源成本方面對我們來說是一個顯著的競爭優勢。而且，你必須記住，我們55%的收入來自美國以外。我們在歐洲和中國銷售的產品大多是我們的特色產品。因此，在服務全球市場方面，我們處於非常有利的成本優勢。顯然，貨幣目前並沒有起到什麼作用。但從長遠來看，我認為能源優勢將成為我們強大的競爭優勢。

When it comes to Europe, our asset base in Europe is a lot smaller than it used to be after we sold the tires and adhesives business, which has significant assets and energy-intensive assets in Europe. So with what's left now, we have our interlayers plants and a small performance films plant, which are more electricity driven and not that energy intensive. Our most energy-intensive asset is our amines facility in Belgium. So the segment that's most impacted by us is AFP when it comes to high energy costs, where for that segment, about 35% of their production as is based in Europe.

說到歐洲，自從我們出售輪胎和黏合劑業務以來，我們在歐洲的資產規模比以前小了很多，而這些業務在歐洲擁有大量資產和能源密集型資產。現在剩下的資產包括我們的中間膜工廠和一家小型高性能薄膜工廠，這些工廠主要依靠電力驅動，能源密集度較低。我們能源密集度最高的資產是位於比利時的胺類工廠。因此，受我們影響最大的部門是AFP，因為其能源成本高昂，該部門約35%的生產都位於歐洲。

And so they're seeing a pretty significant energy headwind. If you just look at the fourth quarter, it's probably a $20 million headwind that they're facing on a year-over-year basis relative to sort of where they were a year ago for just that segment. But none of these assets are in a position where we were concerned about them being economically shut in because the costs are so high. And we feel we have a very good plan in place, especially in Belgium, to feel that we'll get the natural gas supply that we need through the winter.

因此，他們面臨相當大的能源逆風。如果只看第四季度，他們可能面臨的逆風與去年同期相比（光是能源領域）就高達2,000萬美元。但這些資產目前還沒有達到我們先前擔心的因成本過高而導致經濟停產的程度。而且我們覺得我們已經制定了非常好的計劃，尤其是在比利時，相信我們能夠確保整個冬季都能獲得所需的天然氣供應。

So on top of it, a lot of teams working to make sure everything has got supply agreements in place, so we don't get rationed and we don't have a concern around the economic impact from a viability of the assets.

因此，最重要的是，許多團隊都在努力確保所有東西都已簽訂供應協議，這樣我們就不會受到配給，也不擔心資產可行性帶來的經濟影響。

Our next question comes from Matthew DeYoe from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

So I believe this morning, you have some euro-denominated debt maturities approaching. Does it make sense to take that out with USD debt? And how are you thinking about the term loan? I guess as well, what are the implications for next year's interest expense with all this? And does this kind of shift your commitment to the buyback?

所以我相信今天早上你們有一些歐元計價的債務即將到期。用美元債務來償還這些債務合理嗎？你們對定期貸款有什麼看法？我想問一下，這些債務對明年的利息支出有什麼影響？這會改變你們的回購承諾嗎？

Okay. What I would highlight is, to your point, we've got a roughly EUR 700 million -- EUR 750 million coming due in May of next year. I would say, treasury team is proactively looking at how we will manage that. You can expect us to probably put some things in place here in Q4 and finish things off in early Q1. As we've seen rates move compared to that, it's probably, call it, roughly a $25 million to $30 million headwind on a year-over-year basis based on the rates that we see now.

好的。我想強調的是，正如您所說，我們有大約7億到7.5億歐元的債務將於明年5月到期。我想說，財務團隊正在積極研究如何管理這筆債務。您可以預期，我們可能會在第四季落實一些措施，並在第一季初完成。鑑於我們已經看到利率與此相比有所波動，根據我們目前的利率水平，與去年同期相比，這筆債務可能，也就是大約2500萬到3000萬美元的逆風。

As we think about the share buyback, we're still committed to the $1 billion that we outlined for this year. And also, as we think about cash flow and strategic cash available as we look into 2023 with what Mark outlined, I see operating cash flow in a normalized working capital environment and also with the ability to increase our cash earnings of potentially being $300 million to $400 million higher on an operating cash flow basis. So absent with that less our dividend, that puts us at $1 billion plus of strategic cash for our organic growth strategy as well as bolt-on and share repurchases in 2023. And you got to believe in 2024 that we're back to that $1.6 billion or above operating cash flow.

在考慮股票回購時，我們仍致力於實現今年規劃的10億美元目標。此外，正如馬克所概述的那樣，展望2023年，當我們考慮現金流和可用戰略現金時，我認為在正常的營運資本環境下，我們的營運現金流將有所提升，並且我們有能力將現金收益提高3億至4億美元。因此，扣除股息，我們將擁有10億美元以上的策略性現金，用於我們的有機成長策略以及2023年的補充性支出和股票回購。而且，我們確信，到2024年，我們的營運現金流將回到16億美元或以上。

I guess following the agreement with Interzero, what percent of your France facility is now feedstock locked in or contracted or secured?

我想根據與 Interzero 達成的協議，你們在法國的工廠目前有多少比例的原料已被鎖定、簽約或擔保？

We've said the Interzero contract worth about 20,000 tons, and we're building in two phases, 150,000-ton plant. So it's a good step, but it's not a huge percent of the plant. I would say we have other agreements under discussion right now that would get us close to what we need for start-up and feel very good about that and the progress we're making. It's pretty remarkable when you think about that we're locking in contracts for when these plants start out in the '25, '26 time frame and getting these commitments.

我們之前提到過，Interzero 的合約價值約 2 萬噸，我們正在分兩期建造一座 15 萬噸的工廠。所以這是一個很好的舉措，但只佔工廠總產能的一小部分。我想說，我們目前正在討論其他協議，這些協議將使我們接近啟動所需的產能，我們對此以及我們正在取得的進展感到非常滿意。考慮到我們已鎖定這些工廠在 25、26 年投產時的合同，並獲得這些承諾，這真是令人矚目。

And most importantly, what I'm most excited about is the fact that these conversations with these mechanical recyclers are coming to a viewpoint that we need to collaborate together. Mechanical recycling is vital to solve the plastic waste crisis. They have a low energy footprint. And where they can take waste back mechanically into applications is great, and that's what should happen.

最重要的是，我最興奮的是，與這些機械回收商的對話最終達成了共識：我們需要攜手合作。機械回收對於解決塑膠垃圾危機至關重要。它們的能耗低。而且，它們能夠透過機械方式將垃圾重新投入使用，這很棒，這正是我們應該做的。

Unfortunately, there's a huge amount of packaging waste out there as well as textile and carpet waste that cannot be easily mechanically recycled, especially when I'm talking about going back to food grade. There's real limitations on what you can do in mechanical recycling back to food grade. And so we become an essential partnership to really create a circular economy in that sort of high-value packaging market, and they see that. Also, there's a long-term viability question with mechanical recycling because the polymer degrades over time and really has some sort of performance quality issues after several heat cycles. And we can take that degraded polymer and bring it back to life through our facility.

遺憾的是，市面上有大量包裝廢棄物以及紡織品和地毯廢棄物，它們無法輕易地透過機械方式回收，尤其是當我談論將其回收為食品級材料時。透過機械回收將其回收為食品級材料的能力確實有限。因此，我們成為了重要的合作夥伴，致力於在這類高價值包裝市場中真正打造循環經濟，他們也看到了這一點。此外，機械回收還存在長期可行性問題，因為聚合物會隨著時間的推移而降解，並且在經過幾次熱循環後確實會出現一些性能品質問題。而我們可以利用我們的設施，將這些降解的聚合物重新利用起來。

And so it's a partnership that really allows mechanical recycling companies to have a long-term future, allows plastic to have an infinite life in how it can be recycled at a little much lower carbon footprint than the current process. So they see -- Interzero sees that, a couple of other announcements you'll hopefully see before the end of the year is an acknowledgment that the system requires collaboration to really bring -- and keep the most carbon-efficient material in use in a way that doesn't impact the environment.

因此，這種合作關係確實能讓機械回收公司擁有長遠的未來，讓塑膠擁有無限的使用壽命，因為它可以以比現有製程低得多的碳足跡進行回收。因此，Interzero 認為，希望在今年年底前發布的其他幾項公告，都表明了該系統需要合作才能真正實現——並以不影響環境的方式持續使用最節能的材料。

Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

Could you discuss what share of the third methanolysis facility is covered by the Pepsi agreement? Is this enough for you to make FID? And if so, when are you planning to break ground?

您能否談談百事可樂協議涵蓋了第三座甲醇分解設施的多少份額？這足以讓你們做出最終投資決定嗎？如果是的話，你們計劃何時動工？

So we're not going to disclose the volume. As I said before, we don't discuss sort of specific contract terms with our customers. In this case, what I can tell you is this commitment was the key milestone we needed to achieve to feel we could have confidence in the economics to move forward in starting the engineering work and in the planning to construct this plant in the U.S. So both the contract terms, the length of the contract and the size of the contract give us confidence to start aggressively moving forward in the construction of this third plant. So that's where we needed to be, and we're excited about this partnership.

所以我們不會透露具體數量。正如我之前所說，我們不會與客戶討論具體的合約條款。在這種情況下，我可以告訴你的是，這項承諾是我們需要實現的關鍵里程碑，讓我們對經濟效益充滿信心，能夠啟動工程工作並規劃在美國建造這家工廠。因此，無論是合約條款、合約期限或合約規模，都讓我們有信心積極推進第三家工廠的建設。這正是我們需要的，我們對這次合作感到非常興奮。

And I would also note that there's a lot of other customers who are very interested in this capacity. So we'll be accelerating those conversations now that we've got the sort of base load position set to get you some additional customer announcements.

我還要指出的是，還有很多其他客戶對這種容量非常感興趣。因此，既然我們已經確定了基本負載情況，我們將加快這些對話，以便為您提供更多客戶公告。

Thanks, Mark. And staying with recycling, it looks like virgin plastics prices are falling in many cases and so as the feedstock for mechanical recycling. Does that change your discussions with potential suppliers of feedstock and also with potential customers for your recycled materials in any way, basically the [current market] conditions?

謝謝，馬克。繼續說回收利用，很多情況下原生塑膠的價格都在下降，機械回收的原料價格也在下降。這是否會改變您與潛在原料供應商以及回收材料潛在客戶的談判，或者說，改變[當前的市場]狀況？

Yes. I don't think it's changing anything significantly. There's obviously going to be ebbs and flows with supply and demand in the packaging industry, which compared to consumer durables is a far more steady industry. So what I also like about the circular platform is it improves our revenue coming from much more stable end markets from a demand point of view, which is a nice upgrade to our portfolio.

是的。我認為這不會帶來任何重大改變。包裝產業的供需顯然會起伏不定，相較於耐用消費品產業，包裝產業穩定得多。我喜歡循環平台的另一個原因是，從需求角度來看，它能提高我們來自更穩定終端市場的收入，這對我們的產品組合來說是一個不錯的升級。

But when it comes to sort of the trends in prices, especially in the economic chaos we've had of extreme inflation and then now companies hoping for cheaper prices in the future, you're going to see a lot of short-term volatility that we don't see any of our customers getting distracted by it because they're looking at how do they hit commitments in 2025 and 2030, right? That's what all these discussions are about. It's not about what is my composition of virgin versus rPET in 2022, right? That's just not how they think about it. They think about how I build a roadway to 2025 hitting those commitments.

但說到價格趨勢，尤其是在我們經歷了極端通膨的經濟混亂，而現在企業又希望未來價格更低的情況下，你會看到很多短期波動，但我們沒有看到任何客戶因此分心，因為他們正在考慮如何在2025年和2030年兌現承諾，對吧？這就是所有這些討論的主題。問題不在於2022年我的原生PET和再生PET的成分是什麼，對吧？他們根本不這麼想。他們考慮的是如何鋪設一條通往2025年兌現承諾的道路。

But in the short term, if I need to save a little money, I'm going to make trade-offs on what I'm buying today, but they're not -- they can't back off of their commitments. And in Europe, it's not a choice for the brands, right? It's a mandate in government legislation. So in Europe, if you don't hit your recycling targets, you're starting to pay some pretty significant taxes, and that's a real bad look for brands of not solving the recycling content and solving it by paying a tax coming up short in their targets.

但短期來看，如果我需要省一點錢，我會在今天購買的產品上做出取捨，但他們不會——他們不能放棄承諾。在歐洲，這不是品牌的選擇，對吧？這是政府立法的強制規定。所以在歐洲，如果你沒有達到回收目標，你就要開始繳納相當高額的稅款，這對那些不解決回收問題，而是透過繳納達不到目標的稅款來解決這個問題的品牌來說，真是個糟糕的形象。

So in Europe, you've got very sort of structural reasons that they have to stay committed to how they're going to solve this problem. Mechanical recycling infrastructure is not remotely capable of providing enough recycled material to the packaging industries. That's where our value proposition shows up.

所以在歐洲，出於一些結構性原因，他們必須堅持不懈地解決這個問題。機械回收基礎設施根本無法為包裝產業提供足夠的再生材料。這正是我們的價值主張得以體現的地方。

The next question comes from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Mark, I have a question -- another question on inventories as it relates to cash flows. Your cash flow from operation is down more than 50%. You pointed out the hit from working capital being $500 million hit. So I guess my question is, how much of that is from your actual cost going up for raw materials? And how much of this is from level of inventories going up? And when -- can you describe where inventories got to in terms of days and where do you think that will go? So that's my first question.

馬克，我還有一個問題──關於庫存與現金流的關係。你們的營運現金流下降了50%以上。你指出營運資本損失了5億美元。所以我的問題是，其中有多少是因為原物料實際成本上漲所造成的？又有多少是庫存水準上升造成的？以及什麼時候——你能描述一下庫存的天數是多少嗎？你認為庫存水準會下降到什麼程度？這是我的第一個問題。

Thanks, P.J., for the question. What I would highlight as we went into the second half of the year, we had some large turnarounds as we've highlighted here in both Q3 and Q4. So we were building inventories going into the second half. I would highlight at that point, there was probably roughly half of raw material, energy inflation and half quantity. We brought those quantities back down through Q3. And we'll be expecting that by year-end, effectively, the entire increase is raw material and energy inflation. So bringing our DQO, DIO numbers back in line with the prior year-end.

謝謝P.J.的提問。我想強調的是，進入下半年後，我們經歷了一些重大的扭轉，正如我們在第三季和第四季所強調的那樣。因此，我們在下半年開始增加庫存。我想強調的是，當時原物料和能源價格上漲，產量也下降了一半左右。我們在第三季將這些產量控制在了較低水準。我們預計，到年底，實際上所有成長都來自原材料和能源價格上漲。因此，我們的DQO和DIO數據將與去年年底持平。

I mean if you think about the first 8 months, we are trying to ship things as fast as we can make it in serving market demand really through most of August. Some of that was outage related and raw material availability-related interlayers that constrained our ability to supply markets. But demand was great. It was just a logistics or a production constraint in getting it all served. But the market has obviously shifted pretty dramatically in September and through this quarter in destocking.

我的意思是，想想前8個月，我們一直在盡可能快地發貨，以滿足整個8月份的市場需求。部分原因是停產和原物料供應不足，限制了我們供應市場的能力。但需求量很大。只是物流或生產方面限制了我們滿足所有需求。但9月以及本季，市場顯然發生了相當大的變化，庫存正在減少。

And I appreciate your discussion of a mild recession in your prepared comments. You mentioned amines, acetic anhydride and plasticizers to kind of hold up even if olefins decline. Amines and plasticizers have been cyclical in the past. So why do you think they'll hold up in a mild recession here?

我很欣賞您在準備好的評論中對溫和衰退的討論。您提到，即使烯烴價格下跌，胺、乙酸酐和塑化劑的價格也能維持堅挺。胺和增塑劑的價格在過去一直是週期性。那麼您為什麼認為它們在溫和衰退中也能保持堅挺呢？

Yes, sure. So one of the things that's been an important evolution of our portfolio in CI is the growth in functional amines. When you look at that business tied to ag, which is obviously having a good year this year and expect to have a good year next year, and so we are tied to ag demand, but has phenomenally attractive and very stable margins because most -- almost all of that business is in cost pass-through contracts. So that business didn't have market tightness driving spreads up in the last 2 years, and it's not going to have market looseness driving spreads down because they're CPTs. So that's just a great business and really quite attractive, just like the care chemical business and AFP.

是的，當然。因此，我們CI產品組合中一個重要的發展就是功能性胺的成長。看看與農業相關的業務，它今年顯然表現不錯，預計明年也會很好，所以我們與農業需求息息相關，但利潤率卻極具吸引力，而且非常穩定，因為大多數——幾乎所有——這類業務都屬於成本轉嫁合約。因此，過去兩年，這項業務沒有受到市場緊縮導致價差擴大的影響，也不會受到市場寬鬆導致價差縮小的影響，因為它們是CPT（護理化學品）。所以，這是一項很棒的業務，而且非常有吸引力，就像護理化學品業務和AFP一樣。

When it comes to acetyls, you've got a business. Acetic anhydride relative to other acetyls is actually very stable in its margin. So again, it didn't have a fly-up in margins in '21, '22, and it's not going to have a big decrease in margins when the market soften. It's just the nature of those end markets like pharma and food applications are more stable in what happens with them on a margin basis. But margins will certainly come off a bit there, but they will be more than offset by much higher volume.

說到乙醯基，你還有生意。相對於其他乙醯基，乙酸酐的利潤率實際上非常穩定。所以，它的利潤率在21年和22年並沒有大幅上升，而且即使市場疲軟，利潤率也不會大幅下降。製藥和食品應用等終端市場的利潤率走勢更穩定，這僅僅是因為它們的性質。雖然這些市場的利潤率肯定會略有下降，但這些下降將被大幅成長的銷售所抵消。

We had significant restraints on volume this year at acetyl production because we had some significant planned shutdowns. And then the outage has impacted their production run rates as well. So without the planned shutdowns and sort of better operations, we have a significant volume upside that we're confident we can place in the marketplace to sort of have acetyls be relatively stable to this year.

由於我們計劃停產一些大型工廠，今年乙醯基的產量受到了很大限制。停產也影響了他們的生產運作率。因此，即使沒有計劃停產和更好的運營，我們的產量仍有很大的提升空間，我們有信心可以投放市場，確保乙醯基的產量與今年相比保持相對穩定。

And then specialty plasticizers, which are sort of benzoic derivative products, again, historically very stable and reliable. And when you put those three together, that's 50% of the EBITDA of the segment, right? So general plasticizers in our case, DOTP as well as all the other olefin derivatives is the other half. And when you look at that part, that most volatility usually comes from the bulk ethylene as opposed to the derivatives. And you can go do the math and see that the margins in the bulk ethylene are already incredibly low.

然後是特種塑化劑，它們是一種苯甲酸衍生物產品，歷史上一直非常穩定可靠。如果把這三者加在一起，就佔了該部門EBITDA的50%，對吧？所以，在我們這個例子中，通用增塑劑，DOTP以及所有其他烯烴衍生物，佔了另一半。從這部分來看，最大的波動性通常來自本體乙烯，而不是衍生物。算一下就會發現，本體乙烯的利潤率已經非常低了。

We've, one, reduced it as much as possible, as Willie said, using RGP to sort of minimize ethylene production. But the margins are sort of a cash cost in the back half of the year and weren't great in the second quarter. So looking at next year, that's not a sequential headwind in '23 to '21 -- to '22 in any meaningful way. So it's -- you're now a little down to olefin derivatives pricing coming off.

首先，正如威利所說，我們盡可能地降低了成本，使用可再生原料（RGP）來最大限度地減少乙烯產量。但利潤率在下半年有點像現金成本，第二季的利潤率也不太高。所以展望明年，這不會對2023年到2021年乃至2022年造成任何實質的連續性不利影響。所以，現在烯烴衍生物價格下跌，利潤率略為下降。

But when you think about that, half the earnings is in these very good businesses that are very stable. The bulk ethylene headwind is behind us to a large extent. So the amount of decline you can have in the olefin derivatives, even if it's significant, it still allows us to be at that sort of normalized $300 million rate that we talked about. So that's sort of how we sort of look through all that. And so we feel that's actually great performance in a mild economic recession for this business. And in the total portfolio, so it will be offset by fibers, which allows specialties to drive our earnings growth.

但仔細想想，我們一半的獲利都來自這些非常優秀、非常穩定的業務。大宗乙烯業務的逆風很大程度已經過去了。因此，即使烯烴衍生物業務的下滑幅度很大，我們仍然能夠維持我們先前提到的3億美元的正常化獲利水準。這就是我們看待這一切的方式。我們認為，在溫和的經濟衰退時期，這項業務的表現其實相當出色。在整個產品組合中，纖維業務​​的下滑將被抵消，這使得特種產品能夠推動我們的獲利成長。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

So I just wanted to flesh out the discussion on pricing and sort of the price initiative-driven spread expansions. Are you seeing any change in the volume elasticity of demand in response to price initiatives, particularly in Europe, where I guess the slowdown has been going on the most?

所以我想補充一下關於定價以及價格舉措驅動的價差擴大的討論。您是否看到需求量彈性因價格舉措而發生了變化，尤其是在歐洲，我猜那裡的經濟放緩最為嚴重？

Well, I think you have to get clear about what is primary demand in the marketplace, what is destocking and then what may be driven by pricing, whether it's destroying end market demand or losing share to competitors where you have to examine the price question.

嗯，我認為你必須弄清楚市場上的主要需求是什麼，什麼是去庫存，然後什麼可能是由定價驅動的，無論是破壞終端市場需求還是將市場份額輸給競爭對手，你都必須研究價格問題。

We're not seeing any sort of specific destruction in demand because of our pricing at the consumer level. Frankly, when you get to the price of the product on the shelf, our component of almost every customer's cost structure is really quite small. So we're not really a driver of where they go on the pricing on the shelf when it comes to consumers.

由於我們的定價是面向消費者的，因此我們並沒有看到任何特定需求的下降。坦白說，就貨架上產品的價格而言，我們在幾乎所有客戶的成本結構中所佔的份額都非常小。因此，就消費者層面而言，我們實際上並不能左右他們的貨架定價。

When it comes to share loss, we're keeping a very close eye on as our pricing driving any share loss especially around the commodities for that matter, and we're not seeing any of that. Now it's a little hard to see through that when you've got destocking going on. So you never know quite, is it then just pulling inventory down or shifting share? It takes a few quarters to sort of figure all that out.

說到份額損失，我們密切注意定價是否會導致份額損失，尤其是在大宗商品領域，但我們目前還沒有發現任何此類損失。現在，在去庫存的情況下，很難看清這一點。所以你永遠無法確切知道，這究竟是僅僅在降低庫存，還是在轉移份額？這需要幾個季度才能弄清楚。

But what we can see right now based on the end market information we have is our -- what we're seeing in demand drop aligns with what's happening at the market and what the retailers are doing in destocking. So we feel being very disciplined on price, and holding firm on that while we wait for market clarity is the right strategy. And we have very strong value propositions that allowed us to increase prices to cover $1.4 billion of inflation this year. So we're confident we can hold our prices relative to how raw material and distribution costs decline next year to improve our spreads back to more appropriate levels.

但根據我們目前掌握的終端市場訊息，我們目前看到的需求下降與市場行情以及零售商去庫存的舉措相符。因此，我們認為，嚴格控制價格，並在等待市場明朗化的同時保持價格穩定，是正確的策略。我們擁有非常強大的價值主張，這使我們能夠提高價格，以彌補今年14億美元的通膨損失。因此，我們有信心，我們能夠根據明年原材料和分銷成本的下降情況來維持價格，從而將價差提升到更合理的水平。

So we're feeling good about that. We just need the raw material declines we're already seeing to continue happening into next year and also the same on the distribution costs. You'll notice I'm not saying energy as a tailwind because I think that's a lot less certain on where energy goes. And so we're not assuming a tailwind in energy next year with all the dynamics going on around the world.

所以我們對此感到樂觀。我們只需要原物料價格的下降趨勢能夠延續到明年，分銷成本也是如此。你會注意到，我並沒有說能源產業是順風，因為我認為能源產業的走向不太確定。因此，考慮到全球當前的各種動態，我們並不認為明年能源產業會順風順水。

Okay. And then just the -- a couple of years ago, like one of the debates around the Green Premium was that as you brought up -- aim to bring on larger facilities, that premium would compress. And it doesn't sound like that's happening. Is that right? Or can you characterize how resilient? If anything, is the Green Premium increasing as the CPG companies realize how tight their supply, renewable or recycled product, is going to be?

好的。幾年前，圍繞「綠色溢價」的爭論之一是，正如您所提到的——旨在引入更大的設施，溢價就會縮減。聽起來似乎並沒有發生這種情況。是這樣嗎？或者您能描述一下這種現象的韌性有多強嗎？如果有什麼變化的話，隨著消費品公司意識到其可再生或再生產品的供應將變得多麼緊張，「綠色溢價」是否會上升？

Yes. So first, I don't think we've ever thought the Green Premium was going to compress over time, at least not over the next decade because of the supply and infrastructure needed to solve the plastic waste crisis at a lower carbon footprint. So we're making both climate and waste better. It's just significantly beyond what we and others can add to solve that, right? So simple macroeconomics, demand is going to be a lot greater than supply for quite some time. So the value proposition of recycled content in polymer is a true specialty product for some period of time here in what it uniquely brings to the marketplace.

是的。首先，我認為我們從未想過「綠色溢價」會隨著時間的推移而縮減，至少在未來十年內不會，因為解決塑膠垃圾危機需要供應和基礎設施，同時保持較低的碳足跡。所以，我們正在改善氣候和垃圾處理。這遠遠超出了我們和其他人為解決這個問題所能做出的努力，對吧？從簡單的宏觀經濟學角度來看，在相當長的一段時間內，需求將遠大於供應。因此，在聚合物中回收成分的價值主張在一段時間內是真正的特色產品，因為它為市場帶來了獨特的價值。

At some point, is it possible that people add a lot of capacity? Sure. But that's way out in the future for when that starts sort of exceeding demand.

在某種程度上，人們有可能增加大量產能嗎？當然。但那是未來的事情，因為那時產能開始超過需求。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy from VRP.

我們的下一個問題來自 VRP 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Would you discuss your capital budget profile for this year and next? It looks as though you took $100 million out of the plan for this year. Are there any projects that you're rethinking in this environment? Or is that more of a timing issue whereby it would shift into '23?

能談談今年和明年的資本預算狀況嗎？看起來您今年的計畫減少了1億美元。在這種環境下，您是否正在重新考慮哪些項目？或者這更多的是一個時間問題，會延到2023年？

Thanks for the question. So as you think about cash flow progression, obviously, we've evaluated our portfolio of capital, and we've taken actions on both fronts. So there's both timing as we've highlighted earlier this year. Some projects were getting pushed out as a result of supply chain issues. Those are resulting in some of those cash flows now falling into 2023.

謝謝你的提問。說到現金流的進展，顯然我們已經評估了我們的資本組合，並在兩個方面採取了行動。正如我們今年早些時候強調的那樣，時機的選擇也很重要。一些項目由於供應鏈問題而被推遲。這導致部分現金流現在要到2023年才能到達。

Additionally, again, we've reduced and focused our portfolio. We're investing to ensure that, one, that the safety and we maintain our plants well; two, that we continue to grow our core specialties; and then three, as we spent time today talking about our circular platform. And I'll use that to bridge in the 2023 expectation. So what I would say is in a mild recession scenario, a range of where we are currently at $600 million or it could be as much as $100 million or $200 million higher as we make progress on all three of our projects.

此外，我們再次精簡並集中了投資組合。我們的投資旨在確保：第一，確保工廠安全並得到妥善維護；第二，繼續發展我們的核心特色產品；第三，正如我們今天討論的循環平台。我將以此為基礎，展望2023年的預期。因此，我想說，在輕度經濟衰退的情況下，我們目前的投資額約為6億美元，隨著我們三個項目的推進，投資額可能會增加1億或2億美元。

So as Mark highlighted, the fact that we'll be completing, mechanically complete here at the end of the first quarter of our Kingsport methanolysis facility and as we make progress on both our France project and our third project here that will be in the U.S., that will increase the level of capital. And we're confident in the cash flow that we're going to generate and allocating a significant portion of that strategic cash to our innovation-driven growth model and the circular platform.

正如馬克所強調的，我們將在第一季末完成金斯波特甲醇分解設施的機械完工，並且隨著我們在法國項目和即將在美國實施的第三個項目取得進展，這將提高資本水平。我們對即將產生的現金流充滿信心，並將把這筆策略現金的很大一部分投入到我們創新驅動的成長模式和循環平台。

And the key to winning at times like this is staying focused on how you're going to create value long term and making sure you're positioning yourself for the other side of an economic correction to be the winner. So we're not losing sight of that. We may adjust the timing of some projects relative to when we expect the demand necessary. And frankly, the softening economy will make construction costs cheaper. So it will actually help us out in some of this inflationary element of CapEx costs.

在這種時候，制勝的關鍵在於專注於如何創造長期價值，並確保在經濟調整後做好充分準備，最終成為贏家。所以我們不會忽視這一點。我們可能會根據預期需求的時間來調整一些專案的實施時間。坦白說，經濟疲軟將降低建築成本。因此，這實際上會幫助我們應對資本支出成本中的部分通膨因素。

Okay. That's helpful. And then secondly, for Willie, on Slide 12, you referenced a pension and OPEB headwind of $100 million. What is driving that? And is there any cash attached to it in terms of what you may have to inject? Or is it strictly a P&L issue?

好的。這很有幫助。其次，對於 Willie，在第 12 張投影片上，您提到了 1 億美元的退休金和 OPEB 逆風。是什麼導致了這一逆風？就您可能需要注入的資金而言，這是否與現金流有關？還是純粹是損益表問題？

So let me first start with our pension plans are well funded. Two, there's no near-term cash requirements that we would expect. Our large U.S. pension plans are still, today, roughly 100%-plus funded. The key factors here are really about the accounting. At the end of the day, discount rates and interest rates have gone up. So we'll have a gain at the end of the year in our mark-to-market. That comes back in as a higher interest cost in 2023. Additionally, with investment performance this year, the asset base has deteriorated. But ultimately, that will result in lower return on asset.

首先，我想說的是，我們的退休金計畫資金充足。其次，我們預期短期內不會出現現金需求。目前，我們龐大的美國退休金計畫的資金儲備仍然大約在100%以上。這裡的關鍵因素其實在於會計核算。最終，貼現率和利率都上升了。因此，到年底，我們的市價調整將帶來收益。這在2023年會以更高的利息成本的形式反映出來。此外，鑑於今年的投資表現，資產基礎已惡化。最終，這將導致資產回報率下降。

So bottom line is from a cash and from a funding standpoint, there are no issues. I would just attribute this to mark-to-market accounting and the volatility that we're seeing in both interest and assets here in 2022.

所以，從現金和融資的角度來看，底線是沒有問題的。我認為這只是由於以市價計價的會計處理以及我們在2022年看到的利息和資產的波動性。

Our final question today comes from John Roberts from Credit Suisse.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰·羅伯茨。

Two quick ones here. One is since Interzero is burning the waste plastic you're going to get in Europe, are you going to pay something just over fuel value for that waste?

這裡有兩個快速問題。第一，既然 Interzero 正在焚燒你在歐洲收到的廢塑料，你是否願意為這些廢塑料支付略高於燃料價值的費用？

And then secondly, in your 2023 guidance, you've got pension costs going up. I don't think I've heard of anyone actually talking about higher pension costs in '23 yet. So maybe you could tell us how that's coming about.

其次，您在2023年的指引中提到了退休金成本的上漲。我還沒聽說有人真正談論過2023年的退休金成本上漲。所以，能否談談具體情況？

So Interzero, we're not going to disclose the price we're paying for the material, but it is a very attractive price that supports our economics. And there's a whole spectrum from things that go to waste, things that are going to park benches to some modestly higher down-cycled applications. And so it's a portfolio managing on price to make sure the sort of average comes out. And we're seeing that very much on track with the economics of these platforms delivering $450 million of EBITDA across these three projects when they're all up and running. So feel good about the pricing that we're getting as well as where the feedstock price is set. And then on pension, I'll let...

所以，Interzero，我們不會透露我們支付的材料價格，但這是一個非常有吸引力的價格，可以支撐我們的經濟效益。材料種類繁多，從被丟棄的、被丟進公園長椅的，到一些價格略高的降級回收應用。因此，這是一個價格管理組合，以確保價格達到平均水平。我們看到，這些平台的經濟效益非常良好，當這三個項目全部投入運作時，它們的息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 將達到 4.5 億美元。所以，我們對目前的價格以及原料的定價感到滿意。至於退休金，我會…

Yes, John, I thought the last question was on the pension. So it has been answered. Go ahead, John. Yes. Okay.

是的，約翰，我以為最後一個問題是關於退休金的。所以這個問題已經回答了。請繼續，約翰。是的。好的。

This concludes our call for this morning. Thank you very much for your time and for joining us and your interest in Eastman. Have a great rest of your day.

今天上午的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您抽出時間參加我們的電話會議，也感謝您對伊士曼的關注。祝您今天過得愉快！

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的通話到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以掛斷電話了。