伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2023 Eastman Conference Call. This conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加 2023 年第二季伊士曼電話會議。此次會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。

I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將電話轉給伊士曼投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Elliott, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; and William McLain, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations. Yesterday after market closed, we posted our second quarter 2023 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing, our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website, www.eastman.com.

謝謝你，艾利歐特，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起通話的是董事會主席兼執行長馬克‧科斯塔 (Mark Costa)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 William McLain；以及投資者關係經理 Jake LaRoe。昨天收盤後，我們在網站 www.eastman.com 的投資者部分發布了 2023 年第二季度財務業績新聞稿和 SEC 8-K 文件、幻燈片和相關的準備好的評論。

Before we begin, I'll cover two items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。

Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our second quarter 2023 financial results news release during this call in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for full year 2022 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for second quarter 2023.

與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在本次電話會議中前面的幻燈片和準備好的評論中以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的 2022 年全年 10-K 表和將於 2023 年第二季度提交的 10-Q 表。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the second quarter 2023 financial results news release. As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we will now go straight into Q&A.

其次，本簡報中提到的收益不包括某些非核心和不尋常的項目。 2023 年第二季財務績效新聞稿中提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳以及其他相關揭露，包括排除和調整項目的描述。由於我們昨晚已將幻燈片和隨附的準備好的發言稿發佈在我們的網站上，因此我們現在將直接進入問答環節。

Elliot, please, let's start with our first question.

艾略特，請讓我們開始第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

I guess, first, I was just wondering if you could talk about the cadence of earnings here in the second half. Obviously, you're talking about a number of inventory adjustments impacting 3Q. If you could talk towards what you're thinking more of the steady state looks like, whether it's 4Q or maybe beyond that, and what that implies for longer-term earnings CAGR here?

我想，首先，我只是想知道您是否可以談談下半年的獲利節奏。顯然，您談論的是影響第三季的一系列庫存調整。您能否談談您認為的更穩定的狀態是什麼樣的，無論是第四季度還是更晚，這對長期盈利複合年增長率意味著什麼？

Thanks for the question. So there's a lot embedded in that question about the back half of the year and how that indicates where we go into next year. So first of all, I'd start with -- we obviously, in April, thought demand was going to be better in the back half of the year, which was principally an assumption based on destocking really being complete by the end of the second quarter.

謝謝你的提問。因此，這個問題包含許多關於今年下半年的情況以及這將如何預示明年的走向。首先，我想說的是——我們顯然在 4 月認為下半年的需求會更好，這主要是基於到第二季末去庫存真正完成的假設。

Obviously, we and everyone else in the sector has come to a different point of view that while demand at the primary level, I don't think is changing that much. It's not getting worse in our perspective, and I haven't heard anyone else suggest that.

顯然，我們和該領域的其他所有人都得出了不同的觀點，即雖然初級階段的需求有所變化，但我認為變化並不大。從我們的角度來看，情況並沒有變得更糟，而且我也沒有聽到其他人這麼說。

We are expecting that there's a lot more destocking that continues to go on in some end markets, which has really been the impact to our outlook in the back half of the year.

我們預期一些終端市場將繼續出現大量去庫存現象，這對我們下半年的前景產生了影響。

So some areas, whether it's this year or next year, for example, automotive, we have solid growth in this quarter. We expect that to continue to be solid through the back half of the year. And there's so much pent-up demand. And when you think about '24, I would expect it to continue to be a tailwind next year relative to this year. So that market -- aviation, same story, in very good shape.

因此，無論是今年還是明年，在某些領域，例如汽車領域，我們在本季度都實現了穩健的成長。我們預計今年下半年這一勢頭將繼續保持強勁。而且還有太多被壓抑的需求。當你想到 24 年時，我預計明年相對於今年而言將繼續呈現順風態勢。因此，航空市場也同樣如此，狀況非常好。

You have a lot of sort of stable end markets, where demand has been off in that sort of 3%, 4%, 5% range. When you look at all the fast-moving consumer goods companies out there fully recognizing that they're holding price and being very disciplined to expand their margins that way with the raw material tailwinds, and accepting that they probably wouldn't gain much volume if they reduce price. So disciplined, like we're maintaining, frankly, in our specialties.

你有很多穩定的終端市場，其需求一直處於 3%、4%、5% 的範圍內。看看所有快速消費品公司，它們都充分認識到自己在維持價格，並嚴格遵守原材料順風線的規定，以此來擴大利潤率，同時也承認如果降低價格，銷量可能不會有太大增長。如此嚴謹，坦白說，就像我們在自己的專業領域中所保持的那樣。

But in addition to that, they're managing cash, too. So we saw an additional sort of 8% to 12% destocking on top of that demand in the fourth quarter, first quarter. But fortunately, as we go into the second quarter, lessening on that destocking and expect much less destocking in those kind of stable markets like packaging, personal care, water treatment.

但除此之外，他們還管理現金。因此，我們看到第四季和第一季的去庫存現象除了需求之外，還額外出現了 8% 至 12% 的去庫存現象。但幸運的是，隨著我們進入第二季度，去庫存現象正在減少，預計包裝、個人護理、水處理等穩定市場的去庫存現像也會大大減少。

So that feels like it's moving in the right direction as we go to the second half. And of course, that would continue also into '24.

所以當我們進入下半場時，感覺事情正朝著正確的方向發展。當然，這種情況還會持續到24年。

When you look at the consumer discretionary markets -- actually, I would take 2 other stable markets just to deal with them. So there's a couple that also took some sort of extreme negatives in additional destocking in Q2, which was packaging and medical in the Advanced Materials segment. And that's -- they were carrying a bunch of safety stock from last year. Demand wasn't improving as they expected.

當你觀察非必需消費品市場時——實際上，我會選擇另外兩個穩定的市場來應對它們。因此，在第二季的額外去庫存中，有幾個行業也受到了某種極端的負面影響，即先進材料領域的包裝和醫療行業。那是——他們從去年起就持有大量安全庫存。需求並沒有像他們預期的那樣改善。

And so they really started destocking in the second quarter, but they also seem to have addressed their issues predominantly in the second quarter. So that's also expected to get a bit better as we go into the back half of the year, as that destocking reduces through the third quarter and certainly seems to have run its course in by the fourth.

因此，他們實際上是在第二季度開始去庫存的，但他們似乎也主要在第二季度解決了他們的問題。因此，隨著我們進入下半年，這種情況預計會有所好轉，因為去庫存化在第三季度減少，並且似乎在第四季度已經完成。

So again, improvement relative to next year, especially when you think about all these markets had a certain amount of destocking that won't repeat in '24, that's a tailwind. So the 2 bigger markets that drive a huge amount of value for us on a profitability point of view, like automotive that had the most demand impact is sort of in the consumer discretionary area as well, like durables and building construction.

因此，相對於明年而言，情況會有所改善，特別是當你考慮到所有這些市場都有一定程度的去庫存，而這種去庫存在 24 年不會再發生，這是一種順風。因此，從獲利能力的角度來看，為我們帶來巨大價值的兩個較大市場，例如對需求影響最大的汽車市場，也屬於非必需消費品領域，例如耐用品和建築業。

When you look at the durable market, that's the one that's gone through the most extensive destocking of any market. And it really goes all the way back to last May of last year when the retailer sort of got 2x the amount of inventory they needed because they were buying everything they could think of to -- because of supply chain prices, and then they started destocking over 14 months ago.

看看耐久財市場，你會發現它是所有市場中去庫存化程度最深的市場。事情實際上可以追溯到去年 5 月，當時由於供應鏈價格的原因，零售商購買了所有他們能想到的商品，因此庫存量是其所需的 2 倍，然後他們在 14 個月前開始去庫存。

That bullet finally hit us in the fourth quarter of last year, really knocked us down about 40% when the underlying market was only down 10% to 15%. So a lot of destocking. Got even worse, 10% worse, into the first quarter. And then fortunately, when we saw that destocking start to abate in the second quarter, we got 22% better in the second quarter versus the first quarter.

這顆子彈最終在去年第四季擊中了我們，當基礎市場僅下跌 10% 至 15% 時，我們確實損失了約 40%。因此，大量去庫存化。進入第一季度，情況變得更糟，下降了 10%。幸運的是，當我們在第二季看到去庫存化開始減弱時，第二季的表現比第一季成長了 22%。

So we saw momentum there. You just don't see it in the results because of the medical and packaging destocking that occurred. So that destocking will continue to lessen as we go into the back half of the year and be another tailwind as you go into it.

所以我們看到了那裡的勢頭。由於發生了醫療和包裝去庫存現象，所以你無法在結果中看到這一點。因此，隨著我們進入下半年，去庫存現象將繼續減少，並成為進入下半年的另一個順風。

And then, of course, building and construction, I'd say, is one that's been doing some destocking this year, demand is down. And we expect that to be sort of flat to the first half, because that market still has more action taken. There's also maybe some more help with first home builds.

當然，我想說，建築業今年一直在進行去庫存化，需求下降。我們預計這一數字將與上半年持平，因為該市場仍採取了更多行動。對於首次建房可能會有更多幫助。

So there's a spectrum of things going on when you look at it, but it's -- each of them sort of add up to less destocking, but it's not as much as we had hoped for in April, and that's really the predominance of how our volume forecast came down, which is the entirety of our earnings reduction when you combine that with the need to take inventory actions for this lower demand outlook to make sure we hit the $1.4 billion of cash.

因此，當你觀察時，你會發現發生了一系列的事情，但每件事加起來都會導致去庫存減少，但並沒有我們 4 月份希望的那麼多，而這正是導致我們的銷量預測下降的主要原因，當你把這一點與針對較低需求前景採取庫存行動的需要結合起來時，我們的盈利就會全部減少，以確保我們達到 14 億美元的現金目標。

So all those then feed into a year next year that's going to look better, right? When you don't have all this destocking going on, which we're assuming for '24, you have some normal seasonality coming back into the demand outlook for next year that's going to help improve things.

那麼所有這些都會影響到明年的情況會更好，對嗎？當我們沒有進行所有這些去庫存化時（我們假設在 24 年），明年的需求前景將出現一些正常的季節性，這將有助於改善情況。

And you've got the recovery of all this volume in our most -- sort of down markets are our highest value markets, right? So it's been a huge mix hit to us this year. And as we've shown in past recessions, when the mix comes back and if there's a little bit of restocking, the high value of these markets drops to the bottom line pretty significantly, especially with the costs we've taken out of our fixed cost structure. So it all comes together, which is building momentum in the second half to having a much better year in 2024.

在我們最低迷的市場中，所有這些交易量都得到了恢復——這是我們價值最高的市場，對嗎？所以今年這對我們而言是一個巨大的打擊。正如我們在過去的經濟衰退中所表明的那樣，當產品組合恢復正常並進行少量補貨時，這些市場的高價值就會大幅下降，尤其是考慮到我們從固定成本結構中剔除的成本。所以，所有因素綜合起來，將在下半年累積動力，為 2024 年取得更好的成績奠定基礎。

Okay. If I could just ask it very quickly then, so your volumes were down 15% in the first half. What's your baked-in assumption on the second half, all those things put together?

好的。如果我可以很快地問一下的話，那麼你們上半年的銷售量就下降了 15%。綜合以上所有因素，您對下半場有什麼預測？

You're saying what is our specific volume forecast that we've got as a combined company for the second half relative to the first half? Is that what your question is?

您是說，作為一家合併後的公司，我們對下半年的具體銷售預測相對於上半年是多少？這就是你的問題嗎？

Yes. Are you assuming down 15% for the majority? Down 10%? Down 5%? I'm just trying to get a kind of quantum of what you're considering.

是的。您是否認為大多數情況下降 15%？下降 10%？下降5%？我只是想了解你正在考慮的事情的量。

So as we look at it, I think it's -- altogether, the volumes in the back half of the year are going to be a bit less than the first half of the year, but I don't think we're going to provide a quantitative number to it. it's basically just a little bit down, when you put it all together.

因此，當我們看一下時，我認為 - 總體而言，今年下半年的交易量將比上半年略少，但我認為我們不會提供一個定量的數字。當你把所有東西放在一起時，它基本上只是稍微下降了一點。

The real headwinds in the back half of the year is the -- from a sequential point of view, first half, second half, the entirety of our earnings decline is the inventory management, right? So that $75 million sort of additional headwind sort of aligns with sort of where our earnings outlook has now moved.

下半年真正的阻力是－從連續的角度來看，上半年、下半年，我們的獲利下降全部是庫存管理造成的，對嗎？因此，7,500 萬美元的額外不利因素與我們目前的獲利前景是一致的。

So volumes are relatively stable when you put all the ups and downs, right? So some down in AFP, some up in AM, stability in Fibers and CI, sort of a flat volume number from a sequential point of view.

所以，當你把所有的起伏都考慮進去時，成交量是相對穩定的，對嗎？因此，AFP 有所下降，AM 有所上升，而 Fibers 和 CI 則保持穩定，從連續角度來看，成交量呈平穩狀態。

But Josh, I would also say the mix should be more favorable, as Mark has outlined, with our durables markets recovering in the back half.

但是喬希，我還想說，正如馬克所概述的那樣，隨著我們的耐用品市場在下半年復甦，情況應該會更加有利。

And if I just add one more point, which is third quarter year-over-year, the volume mix decline would be less than what you've seen in the first half, but still meaningful. When you get to the fourth quarter, again, on a year-over-year basis, the comp is a little bit different. And so you get to a point where that decline in volume mix is even less still than it was in the first half of the year.

如果我再加一點，即第三季同比下降，那麼銷售組合下降幅度將小於上半年的下降幅度，但仍然很有意義。當你進入第四季時，與去年同期相比，情況略有不同。因此你會發現，銷售組合的下降幅度甚至比上半年還要小。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

In Advanced Materials and in AFP, when you talk to your customers about what's going on volumetrically, what are they indicating in terms of the desire on a go-forward basis, where they want to have inventories and where things might get back to?

在先進材料和 AFP 中，當您與客戶談論產量情況時，他們對於未來的期望是什麼，他們希望在哪裡擁有庫存以及情況可能會恢復到什麼水平？

And I guess what I'm trying to understand is whether what's going on right now is just sort of a structural reset in terms of how they're going to manage their own business versus something that maybe is just temporary that snaps back.

我想了解的是，現在發生的事情是否只是他們如何管理自己的業務的結構性重置，還是可能只是暫時的恢復。

It's just -- it's been going on for a long time. So it's starting to feel like -- and whether it's interest rates or whatever else has happened, it's just starting to feel like the entire supply chain is doing a reset. So I'm just curious, what your customers are telling you in regards to their sort of medium to long-term intentions in terms of holding inventory?

只是——這種情況已經持續很久了。因此，我們開始感覺到——無論是利率還是其他發生的情況，我們開始感覺到整個供應鏈正在重置。所以我很好奇，您的客戶在持有庫存方面的中長期意圖是怎樣的？

That's a great question, Vincent. And I mean I'll try and keep it simple, since my last answer was rather long. But it's very different by end market on what's going on, on the stability of underlying demand and then what they're trying to do in destocking, right? So a lot of these stable markets, it's more fine-tuning, right?

這是一個很好的問題，文森特。我的意思是我會盡量保持簡單，因為我的上一個答案相當長。但終端市場的情況、潛在需求的穩定性以及他們試圖去庫存的舉措有很大不同，對嗎？所以很多穩定的市場都需要更精細的調整，對嗎？

They -- everyone built safety stocks last year through '21 and '22, and they're trying to generate cash and adjust those inventory levels to different perspectives on end markets. So if you're in the personal care world, medical world, these markets are stable at the end. They may be down a little bit, but they're very stable. So destocking is clearly the entirety of what's going on there in many of those sort of end markets.

他們——每個人都在去年到21年和22年建立了安全庫存，他們正試圖產生現金並根據終端市場的不同觀點調整這些庫存水準。因此，如果你身處個人照護領域、醫療領域，這些市場最終是穩定的。它們可能略有下降，但非常穩定。因此，去庫存顯然是許多此類終端市場正在發生的全部現象。

When you get to some of these other markets, where the supply chain is incredibly long, like durables, we're making things that go to China, that get made into products that come back to Europe or the U.S. Really understanding just how much inventory is out there through that entire chain is difficult for everyone in these markets. And exactly where end market demand is on these more discretionary markets, I think, is a little bit more difficult to judge.

當你進入其他一些市場時，你會發現供應鏈非常長，例如耐用品市場，我們生產的貨物銷往中國，然後加工成產品回到歐洲或美國。對於這些市場中的每個人來說，要真正了解整個供應鏈中到底有多少庫存是很困難的。我認為，在這些更自由裁量的市場上，終端市場需求究竟在哪裡，是比較難以判斷的。

But what I'd say, we've seen is a couple of cycles, right? So there's a lot of destocking in the fourth quarter. Demand was really low in January, got a bit better through March. And then there was a realization that the banking crisis, people got nervous about what's going on in the broader economy.

但我想說的是，我們已經看到了幾個週期，對吧？因此第四季有大量庫存被去化。一月份需求確實很低，三月有改善。後來人們意識到銀行業危機，對整體經濟情勢的走向感到緊張。

And so they went into a really low level of demand in April, which was probably the low point for the year. And then started to do a little bit less destocking -- or a lot less destocking in durables through the second quarter.

因此，4 月的需求水準非常低，這可能是今年的最低點。然後開始減少去庫存——或者說，第二季度耐用品去庫存大幅減少。

So as we get into the back half of this year, I think what happened with customers in the June time frame is everyone assuming the back half was going to be a bit better in our downstream customers across -- in most markets, especially maybe the more sensitive ones, that things would stabilize, destocking after 14 months, to your point, who would have played its course more -- back in June after 12 months.

因此，當我們進入今年下半年時，我認為 6 月份客戶的情況是這樣的，每個人都認為下半年我們的下游客戶的情況會好一些 - 在大多數市場，特別是那些更敏感的市場，情況會穩定下來，在 14 個月後去庫存，正如你所說，在 12 個月後的 6 月份，誰會發揮更大的作用。

And they realized they all have that built in their plans, they sort of said that's not going to happen. Demand is going to be flat, which is all of our collective assumption now, and everyone is in destocking mode to that assumption relative to things getting better.

他們意識到他們的計劃中已經包含了這一點，他們說這不會發生。需求將會持平，這是我們所有人現在的集體假設，並且相對於情況好轉，每個人都處於去庫存模式。

But it's not because the markets are getting worse, Vincent, it's just they'd assumed things would get a little bit better, they're not, and they're sort of correcting for that. And it's important that it's a lack of expected growth as opposed to, I think, things are getting worse. I don't see anyone saying things are getting worse at the -- in the primary demand level. Does that make sense?

但這並不是因為市場變得更糟，文森特，只是他們認為情況會變得更好一點，但事實並非如此，他們正在進行某種糾正。重要的是，我認為情況沒有達到預期的成長，反而變得更糟。我沒有看到任何人說在主要需求層面情況正在變得更糟。這樣有道理嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

With much of the discussion regarding inventory management and so forth, I'm just curious, obviously, the 10-Q hasn't come out yet, so we don't know where the second quarter inventory levels are. But can you give us an idea where they are relative to the 1.94 that was in the first quarter? And what are your expectations as to when you go through these actions, how much further down will you be drawing your own inventories?

關於庫存管理等的討論很多，我只是很好奇，顯然 10-Q 還沒出來，所以我們不知道第二季的庫存水準在哪裡。但是您能否告訴我們它們與第一季的 1.94 相比處於什麼水平？當您採取這些行動時，您的期望是什麼？您將在多大程度上進一步降低自己的庫存？

Frank, it's Willie. Yes, so as we think about inventory levels, I'll call it from Q1 to Q2, inventories are about flat. So as we think about the level of the supply chains and the demands that Mark has just outlined, we have about $300 million that we would expect inventory to decline in the back half of the year.

法蘭克，我是威利。是的，當我們考慮庫存水準時，我會說從第一季到第二季度，庫存基本上持平。因此，當我們考慮供應鏈水準和馬克剛剛概述的需求時，我們預計下半年庫存將下降約 3 億美元。

That's also essential to getting us to generating roughly $100 million from working capital on a full year basis, and I'm confident that our business teams and supply chain that we have a plan in place that we've already activated to execute and deliver that cash flow.

這對於讓我們在全年從營運資金中產生約 1 億美元也至關重要，我相信我們的業務團隊和供應鏈已經制定了計劃，並且已經啟動了執行和實現現金流的計劃。

Terrific. And Mark, I was wondering if you could talk to the raw material benefits that you're seeing in your specialty businesses, any way you can provide some order of magnitude in terms of what sort of benefits are you seeing and what your outlook is there?

了不起。馬克，我想知道您是否可以談談您在特種業務中看到的原材料優勢，您能否提供一些數量級，說明您看到了什麼樣的優勢以及您對此的展望？

Yes. So I think in Advanced Materials, we're certainly seeing some pretty meaningful raw material benefits, Frank. If you remember last year, we had a tremendous spike upward in VAM and PVOH prices that created a pretty significant headwind for the -- interlayer's part of that business. Those prices have now collapsed and dropped in price pretty significantly versus last year, and that's seen translated into a tailwind for us to recover our margins there.

是的。因此我認為在先進材料領域，我們確實看到了一些非常有意義的原材料優勢，弗蘭克。如果你還記得去年，VAM 和 PVOH 價格大幅上漲，這給了夾層業務相當大的阻力。與去年相比，這些價格現在已大幅下跌，這對我們恢復利潤率來說是有利的。

PX has not been as much of a tailwind. Those prices have been holding up relative to last year. There's been a bunch of outages in that industry, new plants having trouble starting up, alternative fuel value, all those typical explanations with PX. So not as much of a tailwind there, but we're still well over $100 million of spread tailwind in that segment for the year.

PX 並沒有帶來太大的順風。與去年相比，這些價格一直保持穩定。該行業出現過一系列停產事件，新工廠啟動困難，替代燃料的價值，所有這些都是 PX 的典型解釋。因此，那裡的順風效應並不大，但今年我們在該領域的利差順風效應仍然遠遠超過 1 億美元。

And I think that is obviously helping with some of the demand challenges and building us into a very good margin position as we go into next year when mix comes back and how that flows through -- how that -- those margins will flow through to the bottom line in our fixed cost leverage.

我認為這顯然有助於解決一些需求挑戰，並使我們進入一個非常好的利潤狀況，因為明年當我們進入組合回歸時，這些利潤將如何流入我們的固定成本槓桿的底線。

In AFP, again, we've got good raw material tailwinds in that business as well. But the spread improvement is not as significant because we really have a lot of cost pass-through contracts, especially in the amines business. So we had very stable margins last year. That means they're also going to be stable this year by the nature of those contracts.

在法新社，我們在這項業務中也獲得了良好的原料順風。但利差改善並不那麼顯著，因為我們確實有很多成本轉嫁合同，特別是在胺類業務中。因此，去年我們的利潤率非常穩定。這意味著，從這些合約的性質來看，今年它們也將保持穩定。

But those spreads are also coming in relatively good when you think about ammonia, methanol and some of the olefin-related propane, ethane type products going into the specialty. So overall, spreads are better there as well as -- on a full year basis, helping this year and will, of course, build momentum as volume comes back with better margin as we go into next year.

但是，當你考慮到氨、甲醇和一些烯烴相關的丙烷、乙烷類產品進入專業領域時，這些價差也會相對較好。因此，總體而言，利差也更好——從全年來看，這對今年有所幫助，當然，隨著明年交易量回升和利潤率提高，利差也會增強。

We now turn to Aleksey Yefremov with KeyCorp.

現在讓我們來談談 KeyCorp 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

You discussed lower conversions of MoUs to definitive agreements in France. Can you just elaborate on that? Is it just for France or is it related to your second in the U.S. as well? And is this really related to demand uncertainty or price volatility in the plastics markets? What's happening there?

您討論了法國諒解備忘錄轉化為最終協議的比率較低。能詳細說明一下嗎？這僅適用於法國還是也與您在美國的第二個經驗有關？這真的與塑膠市場的需求不確定性或價格波動有關嗎？那裡發生了什麼事？

I just want to -- you broke up a little bit, Aleksey, I just want to make sure I understood the question. You're asking what's happening with the pace of contracting in France, given the current market conditions? Was that the question?

我只是想——你有點崩潰了，阿列克謝，我只是想確保我理解了這個問題。您問的是，鑑於目前的市場狀況，法國的合約簽訂速度如何？這是問題嗎？

Yes, it was. Apologies. You're talking about MoU conversions to definitive agreements. Could you just elaborate on what's going on there?

是的。抱歉。您正在談論將諒解備忘錄轉換為最終協議。您能詳細說明一下那裡發生了什麼嗎？

Yes, sure. So first of all, the commitment and desire to get recycled content and products remains very strong. So when you look at the specialty businesses we're in right now from our Kingsport plant, the demand commitment, which is global, not just in North America but across the world for products and durables, cosmetics, packaging, for recycled content, remains very strong. We've got 70% of our potential output, where customers are very committed, as you saw in the prepared remarks.

是的，當然。首先，獲得再生材料和產品的承諾和願望仍然非常強烈。因此，當您從金斯波特工廠觀察我們目前所從事的專業業務時，您會發現全球範圍內的需求承諾仍然非常強勁，不僅在北美，而且在世界各地，對產品和耐用品、化妝品、包裝、再生材料的需求也依然非常強勁。正如您在準備好的演講中看到的那樣，我們已經實現了 70% 的潛在產量，客戶對此非常投入。

When it comes to these PET or textile contracts that are the long-term sort of take-or-pay kind of structures for those markets, like the Pepsi contract. We are having great engagement and good discussions with a number of companies about those contracts. Like Pepsi, it takes a long time to negotiate these. They're very complicated contracts. And the current market conditions, I would say, are sort of slowing those discussions down a little bit.

對於這些 PET 或紡織品合約來說，它們都是針對這些市場的長期照付不議合約結構，就像百事可樂合約一樣。我們正在與多家公司就這些合約進行深入的接觸和良好的討論。就像百事可樂一樣，要談判這些需要很長時間。這些合約非常複雜。我想說，當前的市場狀況在某種程度上減緩了這些討論的速度。

So if you're looking at the PET market, whether it's vPET or rPET, those market prices have come off in a pretty significant way, which is purely just the story of everything else in the current macro, right? Demand is off in beverages, people are downscaling to sort of cheaper water bottles that have less material. A lot of that rPET also goes into carpet and textiles, where demand is down 20% to 30%. So that's just a temporary thing.

因此，如果您關注 PET 市場，無論是 vPET 還是 rPET，這些市場價格都已經大幅下跌，這純粹是當前宏觀經濟中其他一切因素的表現，對嗎？飲料需求下降，人們開始轉向使用材質較少且價格較便宜的水瓶。大量 rPET 也用於地毯和紡織品，這些產品的需求下降了 20% 至 30%。所以這只是暫時的。

The key thing to keep in mind in these contracts is we are targeting applications within these brands where mechanical recycling doesn't really work. So if they want recycled content in those applications, they're going to have to use chemical recycling because the performance requirements and a variety of different technical aspects, the mechanical is just not going to actually work.

在這些合約中要記住的關鍵是，我們針對的是這些品牌中機械回收實際上不起作用的應用。因此，如果他們希望在這些應用中使用回收材料，他們就必須使用化學回收，因為性能要求和各種不同的技術方面，機械方法實際上不起作用。

And I'm not going to get into details of that because I think that's a competitive advantage for us, given our deep polyester expertise relative to other companies out there, but that's definitely a key part of how we're going to win.

我不會詳細討論這一點，因為我認為這對我們來說是一個競爭優勢，因為我們相對於其他公司擁有深厚的聚酯專業知識，但這絕對是我們獲勝的關鍵部分。

The second part is the degradation of polymer is already becoming clear in some markets, that you can't mechanically get to 100% recycled content. So while regulatory requirements may be only 25% in 2025, a lot of brands have set targets for some key applications to be 100% recycled content. And to maintain quality, they're not going to be able to do that with mechanical.

第二部分是，在某些市場上，聚合物的降解已經變得明顯，無法透過機械方式獲得 100% 的回收成分。因此，儘管 2025 年的監管要求可能只有 25%，但許多品牌已為一些關鍵應用設定了 100% 可回收材料的目標。為了保持質量，他們無法使用機械來做到這一點。

So we feel very confident that these contracts will get resolved, and we're going to get them in place. The engagement is high. And the regulatory requirements, especially in Europe, are going to require people to have recycled content.

因此，我們非常有信心這些合約將得到解決，並且我們將使它們落實到位。參與度很高。監管要求，尤其是歐洲的監管要求，將要求人們使用可回收材料。

And when you look at the market situation there, right now only about 12.5% of PET is sort of recycled. Mechanical industry does not have the ability to double that capacity between now and 2025 when that number needs to be 25% recycled content or you can't put the packages on the shelf. So we feel like we're in a good position, and working really productively with our customers. And we're aiming to have those contracts done by the end of the year.

如果你看一下那裡的市場狀況，你會發現目前只有大約 12.5% 的 PET 可以回收。機械產業沒有能力從現在到 2025 年將這一產能翻一番，屆時這一數字需要達到 25% 的可回收成分，否則就無法將包裝擺上貨架。因此，我們感覺自己處於有利地位，並且能夠與客戶進行高效合作。我們的目標是在今年年底前完成這些合約。

Our next question comes from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

I was thinking about Advanced Materials a little bit. It feels like this year, obviously, maybe hopefully, trough adjusted EBIT. Now the sustainable day you had a couple of years ago, you had pointed to adjusted EBIT for the segment maybe closer to $700 million. Do you still think that that's the longer-term upside? And how do you bridge sort of the gap between the two to sort of get there from these levels?

我稍微思考了一下先進材料。感覺今年，顯然，或許希望，調整後的息稅前利潤將達到谷底。幾年前，您談到永續發展時指出，該部門的調整後息稅前利潤可能接近 7 億美元。您是否仍認為這是長期的利好？您如何彌合兩者之間的差距，從而實現這些水平？

Sure, Mike. And yes, we still think that's the destination for this business. Obviously, it's been a pretty volatile time over the last few years, from the pandemic to supply chain crisis to a recession.

當然，麥克。是的，我們仍然認為這是這項業務的目標。顯然，過去幾年是相當動盪的時期，從疫情到供應鏈危機再到經濟衰退。

And as I said a bit earlier, the extremity of what's happened in this switch from a COVID life to an experiences live and the impact of inflation, interest costs and how people can afford to spend on goods when they're just trying to afford everyday life and maximize their experiences at very high prices when it comes to hotels and everything else, has created a short-term constraint in how people can afford goods.

正如我之前所說，從新冠疫情生活到體驗生活的轉變中，人們經歷了極端情況，通貨膨脹、利息成本以及人們在試圖負擔日常生活費用並在酒店和其他一切方面以非常高的價格最大化他們的體驗時如何負擔得起商品支出，這在短期內限制了人們購買商品的能力。

And consumer durables, as an example, is one of the places that is most discretionary, especially after they bought a lot during COVID. So demands are way below anything normal in consumer durables, and then you've got this huge amount of destocking on top of it on a very high-value mix product.

以耐用消費品為例，它是人們最可自由支配的物品之一，尤其是在疫情期間人們大量購買了耐用消費品之後。因此，耐用消費品的需求遠低於正常水平，而高價值混合產品的需求又會大幅減少庫存。

So as that market stabilizes, you'll see some recovery coming in the back half of the year, especially if you back out the inventory utilization headwinds. And we'll build good momentum into next year from an underlying market point of view.

因此，隨著市場穩定，你會看到下半年出現一些復甦，特別是如果你消除庫存利用率的阻力。從基礎市場的角度來看，我們將為明年創造良好的發展動能。

And then you add on top of that recycled content, allowing us to add additional incremental value and substantial new volume from those applications. As we said, just getting started, it's a $75 million adder to next year in EPS for the Advanced Materials segment. So that obviously is going to be significantly helpful. The fixed cost leverage in this business, as we've demonstrated in the last 10 years, is significant, right?

然後，您可以在這些回收內容的基礎上進行添加，這樣我們就可以從這些應用中添加額外的增量價值和大量的新容量。正如我們所說，這只是開始，它將為先進材料部門明年的每股收益增加 7500 萬美元。所以這顯然會非常有幫助。正如我們在過去 10 年中所證明的那樣，這個行業的固定成本槓桿率很高，對嗎？

This world is always growing double digits for us, and the underlying markets are typically growing 3% because we win so many applications because of better value proposition just because of product performance and product safety. And now you're adding on recycled content to further accelerate that curve.

對我們來說，這個世界總是以兩位數的速度成長，而基礎市場通常成長 3%，因為我們憑藉更好的價值主張贏得瞭如此多的應用，而這僅僅是因為產品性能和產品安全性。現在您要加入回收內容來進一步加速這一曲線。

The problem is, in a market like this, there's not a lot of new product launches, right? But we're continuing to win new business. Even now, that's going to help volume in the back half of the year on top of just waiting for destocking, we've won a lot of applications. But they'll really ramp up next year when things stabilize and they start launching new products. So all that sort of brings in better value from that side.

問題是，在這樣的市場中，沒有很多新產品推出，對嗎？但我們仍在繼續贏得新業務。即使是現在，這也將有助於下半年的銷量，除了等待去庫存之外，我們已經贏得了許多申請。但明年當情況穩定下來並開始推出新產品時，他們的銷售量才會真正增加。因此，所有這些都從側面帶來了更好的價值。

And then, of course, the last couple of years, the inflation has been really high. We've been trying to keep up with it. But now we're finally recovering our margins in this space. So you've got better margins on top of this volume recovery to sort of lever you to better earnings. So as you go through '24, '25, driving towards that $700 million is very much what we expect to do.

當然，過去幾年通貨膨脹率一直很高。我們一直在努力跟上它。但現在我們終於恢復了這領域的利潤。因此，除了銷量恢復之外，您還可以獲得更好的利潤率，從而為您帶來更好的收益。因此，在 2024 年和 2025 年，我們非常希望實現 7 億美元的目標。

Got it. And just a quick follow-up for just kind of overall volume growth in '24, which I know is long way from here. But when you look at your customers' inventory, do you think they will need to restock? And if that's the case, when do you think a restocking event would occur? And if not, is it possible you just sort of plug along low single digit or some volume growth in '24, '25, '26, and maybe they don't need to replenish?

知道了。我對 24 年的整體銷售成長情況進行了快速跟進，我知道這距離現在還有很長的路要走。但是當您查看客戶的庫存時，您認為他們需要補貨嗎？如果是這樣的話，您認為補貨事件什麼時候會發生？如果沒有的話，是否有可能在 2024、2025、2026 年僅實現低個位數增長或一定的銷量增長，也許他們不需要補貨？

Well, first of all, I think what happened from April to now, the whole industry, from us all the way down to retailers, have gone to group think that it's going to be bad for the rest of the year, right? And everyone is acting under that assumption and pulling inventory down, managing in that context.

嗯，首先，我認為從四月到現在，整個行業，從我們一直到零售商，都開始集體認為今年剩餘時間的情況會很糟糕，對嗎？每個人都在這種假設下採取行動並降低庫存，在這種背景下進行管理。

But there's a limit to how much destocking can occur. At some point, warehouses go empty, right? And in some of these markets, especially like durables, it's been emptied out for a long time, where automotive, there's a huge amount of pent-up demand because we're talking about demand being better this year, but it's from a really bad level last year, right?

但去庫存的程度是有限的。倉庫有時會空起來，對嗎？在某些市場，尤其是耐用品市場，庫存已經空置了很長時間，而汽車市場則存在大量被壓抑的需求，因為我們說今年的需求會更好，但去年的需求水平真的很差，對吧？

So there's still plenty of pent-up demand there, and there's going to be plenty of pent-up demand in building construction with the dynamics of what's going on this year, constraining both demand and production of homes. There's a lot of upside across the whole corporation, when you think about it from both a demand point of view.

因此，那裡仍然有大量被壓抑的需求，而且，考慮到今年的情況動態，建築施工中將有大量被壓抑的需求，從而限制住房的需求和生產。如果從需求的角度來考慮，整個公司都有很多好處。

And you got to remember these destocking levels are huge, right? So destocking is 2 or 3x more than the underlying demand. And if that goes away, that's all volume recovery at some point, even if the underlying market demand doesn't improve.

你必須記住，這些去庫存水準是巨大的，對嗎？因此，去庫存量是潛在需求的 2 到 3 倍。如果這種情況消失，那麼即使潛在的市場需求沒有改善，到某個時候銷售也會恢復。

And then to your question around inventory, I think it's -- with the actions that we're taking and everyone else is taking, you can see people driving inventories at very low levels. It's more likely than not that they're going to go below what they -- in an improving demand environment. And so there will be some amount of restocking.

然後關於庫存的問題，我認為——透過我們和其他人正在採取的行動，你可以看到人們將庫存保持在非常低的水平。在需求環境不斷改善的情況下，他們的產量很可能會低於目前的水平。因此將會有一定數量的補貨。

Now our back half, just to be clear, has no restocking assumed in the guide that we gave you. So if that happens, that's upside. But if you look at '24 and say destocking has got to run its course eventually, so that you don't have that as a headwind for next year, and then some -- just a little bit of restocking just to get to levels to serve that demand, I think you can get a much better picture of volume next year than this year.

現在，為了清楚起見，我們給您的指南中沒有假設我們的後半部有補貨。如果發生這種情況，那就是好事。但如果你看一下 24 年的情況，並說去庫存最終必須完成，這樣你就不會把它作為明年的阻力，然後再進行一些補充庫存，以達到滿足需求的水平，我認為你可以對明年的產量有一個比今年更好的了解。

Our next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, thanks for the update in Kingsport. On the project, do you have any forecast for estimated losses this year as you ramp up? And do you have an updated cost of the Kingsport project?

馬克，謝謝你在金斯波特的更新消息。關於該項目，隨著項目逐步推進，您對今年的預計損失有何預測？您有金斯波特專案的最新成本嗎？

Thanks, David. First, I'd just highlight that the operating costs are going to be approximately neutral on a year-over-year basis. If you think about the preproduction that we're incurring this year, as well as the start-up expenses and also as we're using our bridge technology with glycolysis to seed the market, that's at a higher cost to bridge.

謝謝，大衛。首先，我要強調的是，營運成本與去年同期相比將大致保持中性。如果你考慮到我們今年進行的預生產以及啟動費用，以及我們使用糖酵解橋接技術來開拓市場，那麼橋接成本會更高。

So on a year-over-year basis, the way I think about this is revenue growth is actually accretive to EBITDA. And as we outlined within our guidance on the $75 million of EBITDA on a year-over-year basis, roughly $50 million of that will be in Advanced Materials and the absence of the preproduction and start-up costs in our corporate other. So as I see it, that's roughly where we're getting the $75 million.

因此，與去年同期相比，我認為營收成長實際上會增加 EBITDA。正如我們在 EBITDA 年成長 7500 萬美元的指導中所述，其中約 5000 萬美元將用於先進材料，以及我們公司其他部門的預生產和啟動成本。所以在我看來，這就是我們獲得 7500 萬美元的大致金額。

Also, if I think about our CapEx this year, we started the year at roughly $700 million to $800 million for the project. We took that up to $800 million. You can think about the combination of that and how we're managing our overall CapEx as the increases end of the project this year for the Kingsport project.

此外，如果我考慮我們今年的資本支出，我們年初為該項目投入的資金約為 7 億至 8 億美元。我們將這一數字提高至 8 億美元。您可以考慮一下這一點以及我們如何管理今年金斯波特專案項目結束時的整體資本支出增加的情況。

I apologize. I meant to ask what was the updated capital cost for the project itself and that total company CapEx.

我很抱歉。我要問的是專案本身和整個公司資本支出的最新資本成本是多少。

Yes. I don't think at this time we're giving the capital cost for the Kingsport project. So we're not going to provide that at this time, David.

是的。我認為目前我們還沒有給出金斯波特專案的資本成本。因此，大衛，我們現在不會提供這項服務。

Understood. And just, Mark, just on Fibers and tow, do the contracts for next year have price increases embedded in them?

明白了。馬克，就纖維和絲束而言，明年的合約是否包含價格上漲？

They don't have price increases embedded in them for next year versus this year, David, if that's your question. Obviously, prices have gone up considerably from last year. But the idea of these contracts is to prove our margins and profitability to a level where we can continue to reinvest in this business to be a reliable supplier to our customers. And we've achieved that type of pricing with our customers in these contracts. We've also put formulas in them to adjust for changes in energy cost to give stability for us and for our customers, which we have not had in the past.

大衛，如果你問的是這個，那麼與今年相比，明年的價格並沒有上漲。顯然，價格比去年上漲了不少。但這些合約的目的是為了證明我們的利潤率和盈利能力達到一定的水平，以便我們可以繼續對這項業務進行再投資，成為我們客戶可靠的供應商。我們在這些合約中與客戶達成了這種定價。我們還在其中加入了公式來調整能源成本的變化，為我們和我們的客戶提供穩定性，這是我們過去所沒有的。

So we feel great about what we've achieved in improving our sort of ability to support our customers and our current profitability. And these contracts are now in place, where about 75% is fully contracted now through next -- '24. Many of those are multiyear contracts. Hopefully, by the end of the year, we'll have that number up to 90%.

因此，我們對在提高支援客戶的能力和當前獲利能力方面所取得的成就感到非常高興。這些合約目前均已到位，其中約 75% 的合約已完全簽訂，有效期至 2024 年。其中許多都是多年期合約。希望到今年年底，這個數字能達到 90%。

So great improvement in this business from its performance last year, and we're very focused on stabilizing it on the tow side to provide very attractive cash flow to support our growth investments across the company.

與去年相比，這項業務有了很大的改善，我們非常注重穩定其業績，以提供非常有吸引力的現金流來支持我們整個公司的成長投資。

I would also note the textile business continues to do great on top of that, where, even in a 20% downmarket that we have this year in textiles, we're growing that business. So we're winning a lot of market share versus other materials because the value proposition of Naia is very compelling. It's a great beginning of life story, being based on biocontent and recycled plastic.

我還要指出的是，紡織業務繼續表現良好，即使今年我們的紡織業務處於 20% 的低端市場，我們的業務仍在成長。因此，與其他材料相比，我們贏得了很大的市場份額，因為 Naia 的價值主張非常引人注目。這是一個基於生物內容和再生塑膠的偉大生命故事的開端。

And importantly, and a bigger issue, going forward, now is microplastics, which are the fibers breaking up and getting into the ocean. And our fibers are fully certified to biodegrade when they do end up in the environment. And so that's a very significant positive, as the world is becoming more concerned about that as well. So it's just a great business.

更重要的是，未來更大的問題是微塑料，即分解並進入海洋的纖維。我們的纖維經過充分認證，當它們最終進入環境時，可以生物降解。這是一個非常重要的正面因素，因為世界也越來越關注這個問題。所以這是一門偉大的生意。

Our next question comes from John Roberts with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰·羅伯茨。

On the second U.S. PET project, are you going more slowly on that?

關於第二個美國 PET 項目，你們的進度是否比較慢？

We're nothing more slowly in any significant way, John. I mean right now, what we're doing is really focusing -- we haven't made a site announcement, so you could ask that question, too, because we're really looking at the incentives across several states. We've got 3 sites that are all very attractive, and the engineering work is continuing for whichever site we pick. And so we're just trying to get those incentives in place.

我們在任何重要方面都沒有變得更慢，約翰。我的意思是，現在，我們真正要做的是集中精力——我們還沒有發佈站點公告，所以你也可以問這個問題，因為我們實際上正在關注幾個州的激勵措施。我們已經找到了 3 個非常有吸引力的地點，無論我們選擇哪個地點，工程工作都在繼續進行。因此我們只是試圖將這些激勵措施落實到位。

We feel great about our partnership with Pepsi as a significant baseload customer in that project, and we are sort of moving forward with that project to make sure we can serve the needs and put that together with the French project in Kingsport to get that $450 million EBITDA value for our owners, which is a great return on the capital required across those 3 projects.

我們對與百事可樂的合作感到非常高興，百事可樂是該項目的重要基載客戶，我們正在推進該項目，以確保我們能夠滿足需求，並將其與金斯波特的法國項目結合起來，為我們的業主獲得 4.5 億美元的 EBITDA 價值，這是對這三個項目所需資本的巨大回報。

And then on the Fibers business, assuming raw materials are sequentially stable, is all of the earnings step-down in the third quarter? Just remind us of the frequency of the reset on the price versus cost.

那麼，就纖維業務而言，假設原料連續穩定，那麼第三季的所有收益都會下降嗎？只需提醒我們價格與成本重置的頻率。

The contracts are quarterly. So a little bit of a step-down from Q2 to Q3 is just the prices adjusting for a lower energy environment.

合約是按季度簽訂的。因此，從第二季到第三季的略微下降只是為了適應較低能源環境而進行的價格調整。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Yes. Mark, with regard to Advanced Materials, do you have a sense today as to whether your third quarter earnings are likely to be flat, up or down sequentially versus the $99 million that you posted in the second quarter?

是的。馬克，關於先進材料公司，您今天是否覺得，與第二季公佈的 9,900 萬美元相比，第三季的收益是持平、上升還是下降？

The reason I ask is reading the prepared remarks last night, it looks like you have a $40 million inventory-related hit in the third quarter, but you also say the second half should be better than the first half. So it seems like there's some countervailing trends there. So any comments on the seasonal cadence would be helpful.

我之所以問這個問題，是因為我看了昨晚準備好的發言稿，看起來你們在第三季遭遇了 4000 萬美元的庫存相關損失，但你們也表示下半年應該會比上半年好。因此看起來那裡存在一些相反的趨勢。因此，任何有關季節節奏的評論都會有所幫助。

So Kevin, I think we highlighted earlier that most of the $40 million headwind on the utilization rate will be in Q3. So as a result, I would expect it to be similar and slightly down sequentially in Advanced Materials.

所以凱文，我認為我們之前強調過，利用率面臨的 4000 萬美元阻力大部分將出現在第三季。因此，我預計先進材料行業的情況會類似，但環比略有下降。

Slightly down versus 2Q, Willie?

與第二季相比略有下降，威利？

Correct.

正確的。

Yes, of course, there the lack of that sequentially from Q3 to Q4, where that improving volume and spread will pop back up. So you can't think of normal seasonality around the back half of the year really for either AM or AFP because most of the inventory reduction actions are happening in Q3 more -- much more so than Q4.

是的，當然，從第三季度到第四季度，銷量和價差的改善將會再次出現。因此，對於 AM 或 AFP 來說，您不能認為下半年會出現正常的季節性，因為大多數庫存減少行動都發生在第三季度，比第四季度多得多。

But the volume momentum and margin improvement is continuing through 3Q and into 4Q, not just because of our inventory actions but because our customers are doing the same thing, right? They're also taking inventory down more in Q3 and oddly less in Q4, when you think about it, in the sort of odd year we're living in right now?

但銷售成長動能和利潤率的提高將持續到第三季度和第四季度，這不僅是因為我們的庫存行動，還因為我們的客戶也在做同樣的事情，對嗎？想想看，在我們現在所處的這種奇怪的年份裡，他們在第三季度的庫存減少得更多，而在第四季度卻減少得更少，對嗎？

Yes, it is odd, isn't it? That's very helpful. Secondly, I wanted to ask about A&FP. I think you referenced a heat transfer fluid project that cost $15 million to be pulled into the second quarter. Can you just elaborate on what you're doing there and how that is translating to a meaningful earnings swing?

是的，這很奇怪，不是嗎？這非常有幫助。其次，我想問A&FP。我認為您提到的傳熱流體專案耗資 1500 萬美元，將進入第二季。您能否詳細說明您在那裡做什麼以及這如何轉化為有意義的盈利變化？

Yes, sure. So the fluids business is a bit sort of chunky in how volume shows up, right, because you have these very large projects. And at some point, they complete the project. And at the end of the completion, they need to charge that plant with heat transfer fluid to then start up the plant.

是的，當然。因此，流體業務在數量上顯得有點笨重，對吧，因為你有這些非常大的項目。最終，他們完成了這個專案。在完工結束時，他們需要向工廠注入傳熱流體，然後啟動工廠。

And in this case, this was an extremely large LNG project that had been under construction for several years, and their completion actually happened a little bit sooner than they expected and moved forward with wanting to charge that system, and so we shipped that volume. We thought it was going to be in the third quarter, turned out to be in the second quarter.

在這種情況下，這是一個非常大的液化天然氣項目，已經建設了好幾年，他們的完工實際上比他們預期的要早一點，並且他們希望對該系統進行充電，所以我們運送了那麼多數量。我們原以為它會在第三季發生，結果卻是在第二季。

But this overall business is a great business. And something, I'd say, that we've really accomplished a lot in this business is diversifying our market exposure to different end markets. So historically, it's been very driven by the polyester industry and a few other sort of chemical facilities that use a lot of heat transfer fluid.

但總體而言，這是一項偉大的事業。我想說的是，我們在這個業務中真正取得的成就是將我們的市場覆蓋率多元化到不同的終端市場。因此，從歷史上看，它很大程度上受到聚酯工業和其他一些使用大量傳熱流體的化學設施的推動。

But we've seen a huge growth in LNG, as you know well with the geopolitical dynamics going on right now with Ukraine in Europe, and there's a lot of heat transfer fluid in those plants, too.

但我們已經看到液化天然氣的巨大成長，如您所知，目前歐洲烏克蘭的地緣政治動態，而這些工廠也需要大量的傳熱流體。

So we're diversifying out of China into other applications, like this project that creates a lot of value for this business. And they're very high-value projects. So when they do show up, they drop a lot of earnings to the bottom line. And so it just happened to be in Q2, which then means as you go sequentially from Q2 to Q3, you get a $30 million swing in earnings.

因此，我們正在從中國向其他應用領域拓展業務，例如這個為該業務創造大​​量價值的項目。而且它們都是高價值的項目。因此，當他們出現時，他們的利潤就會大幅下降。所以它恰好發生在第二季度，這意味著隨著你從第二季度連續到第三季度，你的收益將出現 3000 萬美元的變化。

Our next question comes from Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

Talking a little bit about Naia in textiles, what's the opportunity for EBIT if we think about next year in growth? I mean I'm just thinking, given the margin recovery in cigarette filter tow, does it even make sense to rotate tonnage from filters to fibers? And is Naia still growing into your excess capacity? Or are you now transitioning filter capacity to textiles?

談談紡織業的 Naia，如果我們考慮明年的成長，息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 的機會是什麼？我的意思是，我只是在想，考慮到香菸過濾嘴絲束的利潤率回升，將噸位從過濾嘴轉向纖維是否有意義？ Naia 是否仍在成長以致於超越您的產能？或者您現在正在將過濾能力轉移到紡織品上？

So first of all, Naia is a great business, the margins are very good. Obviously, recent improvements until margins are better. But the reality is, while we're really excited about the improvement in the tow business, it is a stable business that's still going to decline in volume about 1% a year. It's not a growth business.

首先，Naia 是一家很棒的公司，利潤率很高。顯然，最近的改進直到利潤率更好。但現實情況是，雖然我們對拖車業務的改善感到非常興奮，但這是一項穩定的業務，其銷量每年仍將下降約 1%。這不是一個成長型企業。

So we continue to be very focused on serving our customers. These heat-not-burn products are certainly growing at 15% and [need] more filter tow, but that's just offsetting some underlying natural decline of cigarettes to get you to that sort of net 1% decline.

因此，我們將持續高度重視客戶服務。這些加熱不燃燒產品確實以 15% 的速度增長，並且需要更多的過濾嘴絲束，但這只是抵消了香菸的一些潛在的自然下降趨勢，從而實現了 1% 的淨下降。

So we're not conflicted, capacity-wise, between this and growing our Naia business. But we are getting to the point where we are going to start using up the available capacity, and we're looking at capacity expansion options to continue to support the growth, right? Because our goal here with cellulosics is not to optimize the stream but to turn it into a growth stream, right?

因此，從容量角度來看，我們在發展 Naia 業務和發展 Naia 業務之間並不衝突。但我們即將開始用盡可用產能，並且正在尋找產能擴張方案來繼續支持成長，對嗎？因為我們對纖維素的目標不是優化流程而是將其轉變為成長流程，對嗎？

Our goal here is to win in a variety of applications. So like polyester being a very high-growth stream for environmental reasons and providing sustainable products, our strategy, as we laid out Innovation Day, is to get $200 million of EBITDA growth of the stream on top of the tow business, right?

我們的目標是在各種應用中取得勝利。因此，就像聚酯纖維由於環境原因而成為一種高成長業務並提供永續產品一樣，我們的策略（正如我們在創新日所製定的）是在拖曳業務的基礎上實現 2 億美元的 EBITDA 成長，對嗎？

So when we talked to you in 2021, we weren't including improvements in tow, right? Tow is a new base, and we're still aiming to grow $200 million EBITDA on top of that new base. That's a very significant change from where we were in 2021.

所以當我們在 2021 年與您交談時，我們並沒有包括改進，對嗎？ Tow 是一個新的基地，我們仍計劃在此基礎上增加 2 億美元的 EBITDA。這與 2021 年的情況相比發生了非常重大的變化。

We've got growth in Naia, which we're really excited about, as I explained the value proposition a moment ago. We have great growth prospects and some early wins in Aventa, this is our foamed cellulosic that can replace polystyrene in packaging. Clearly, polystyrene is being banned in many places for packaging, whether it's food packaging, in sort of protein trays for meat or the clamshells, et cetera.

正如我剛才解釋的價值主張一樣，Naia 取得了成長，我們對此感到非常興奮。我們在 Aventa 方面擁有巨大的成長前景和一些早期勝利，這是我們的泡沫纖維素，可以取代包裝中的聚苯乙烯。顯然，許多地方都禁止使用聚苯乙烯進行包裝，無論是食品包裝、肉類蛋白質托盤或蛤殼包裝等等。

And we've validated that our Aventa product will biodegrade both in not just industrial, but in residential composting, which is sort of the equivalent of landfill. So it really is a true end-of-life solution. So customers are super interested in that, huge market, lots of volume growth opportunity there.

我們已經證實，我們的 Aventa 產品不僅能在工業堆肥中生物降解，還能在住宅堆肥中生物降解，這相當於垃圾掩埋場。所以這確實是一個真正的生命終結解決方案。因此，客戶對此非常感興趣，因為那裡市場龐大，銷售成長機會很多。

Then you got micro beads, which is a super high-value opportunity in cosmetics. We've got success in recycled content in the ophthalmics business with how we're recycling the eyewear back into the product. So there's a lot of growth going on across the cellulosic stream. And so we're going to be looking at incremental capacity expansion to support all these growth opportunities as we move forward.

然後你就得到了微珠，這是化妝品中超高價值的機會。我們在眼科業務中成功地利用了回收的眼鏡材料，並將其重新製作成產品。因此，纖維素流正在發生很大的增長。因此，我們將尋求逐步擴大產能，以支持我們未來的所有這些成長機會。

Fortunately, we have a very large and solid asset base. So it's not like building methanolysis plants. We can really leverage the capability we have here, but there'll still be capacity we're adding for Naia and all these other products between flake and fiber.

幸運的是，我們擁有非常龐大且穩固的資產基礎。所以這並不像建造甲醇分解工廠。我們可以真正利用我們現有的能力，但我們仍將為 Naia 以及薄片和纖維之間的所有其他產品增加產能。

Our next question comes from Patrick Cunningham with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的派崔克‧坎寧安。

I know you have no expectations for any sort of restocking embedded in the full-year guide. But which end markets do you think are potentially best set up for restocking, whether it be in 4Q or into 2024? And how should we think about this in the context of upside to earnings from the specialty businesses?

我知道您對全年指南中嵌入的任何形式的補貨都不抱有任何期望。但是，您認為哪些終端市場最適合補貨，無論是在第四季還是 2024 年？那麼，從專業業務獲利上升的角度來看這個問題該如何看待呢？

Well, I think that it doesn't matter what end market we're in right now, there's a lot of destocking going on as everyone focuses on generating cash. And so I think there's probably opportunities for restocking pretty much across the markets. Building construction might be the one exception, where I think there's a lot of destocking still to be done from what we've seen from our customers in that space.

嗯，我認為我們現在處於哪個終端市場並不重要，由於每個人都專注於創造現金，因此正在進行大量的去庫存化。因此我認為整個市場可能都有補貨的機會。建築施工可能是個例外，從我們在該領域的客戶情況來看，我認為該行業仍有許多去庫存的工作要做。

But everywhere else, I think there's some degree. And then it just gets into proportions, right? So where the destocking numbers are bigger, like consumer durables, then the potential for restocking is higher.

但我認為在其他地方，還是存在一定程度的。然後它就變成比例了，對嗎？因此，如果去庫存數量較大，例如耐用消費品，那麼補貨的可能性就較高。

In more stable markets like personal care and water treatment and medical, I think the restocking opportunities are still there, but muted because they're just not doing as much. As far as earnings opportunity for next year, relative to this year, we're not going to sort of get into that yet. It's a little bit early.

在個人護理、水處理和醫療等更穩定的市場中，我認為補貨機會仍然存在，但由於他們沒有做太多，所以補貨機會較少。至於相對於今年而言明年的獲利機會，我們目前還不會深入討論。有點早了。

Yes. That makes sense. And what's driving strength in acetic anhydride? And I think you referenced overall resilience in acetyls. I would have expected some weakness, given declining spreads in some of your end market commentary.

是的。這很有道理。乙酸酐的驅動強度是多少？我認為您提到了乙醯基的整體彈性。鑑於部分終端市場評論中的利差下降，我原本預計會出現一些疲軟。

Well, for acetic anhydride, it goes more into food, pharma, feed type applications that -- where the demand is actually really stable. So it's not -- acetic acid goes into polyester where demand is down a lot in textiles. VAM goes into coatings and a bunch of other more economically sensitive applications.

嗯，對於乙酸酐來說，它更多地用於食品、製藥、飼料類型的應用——這些領域的需求實際上非常穩定。所以事實並非如此——乙酸用於生產聚酯，而紡織品對聚酯的需求卻大幅下降。 VAM 可用於塗料和一系列其他更經濟敏感的應用。

When you think about different acetyl derivatives, acetic anhydride just has much more stable end markets. And large customers that place a lot of value on security of supply of that product for those kind of applications, so they tend to be more focused on supply than just what's the best price. So that just allows that business to be relatively stable.

當您考慮不同的乙醯衍生物時，乙酸酐的終端市場就更加穩定。大客戶非常重視此類應用產品的供應安全，因此他們往往更專注於供應，而不僅僅是最優價格。這樣就能使業務相對穩定。

I mean we're still -- we have some price pressure there. but it's not nearly as much as some of these other sort of derivatives or non-olefins, which is the bigger part of our portfolio, where the price pressure and spread compression is occurring in CI is really more of an olefin and plasticizer story.

我的意思是我們仍然面臨一些價格壓力。但它遠不及其他一些衍生物或非烯烴，而這些是我們投資組合中較大的一部分，CI 中出現的價格壓力和價差壓縮實際上更多的是烯烴和增塑劑的故事。

(Operator Instructions) We now turn to Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

（操作員指示）現在我們轉向 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

I guess just two quick ones. As you think about the dynamics around inventories and fixed cost absorption, should incremental margins next year be above 60%? Or do you think some of the inventory reduction efforts you're doing now will spill over into Q1?

我想只有兩個簡單的問題。當您考慮庫存和固定成本吸收的動態時，明年的增量利潤率是否應該高於 60%？或者您認為您現在所做的一些減少庫存的努力將延續到第一季？

Laurence, this is Willie. To your point, I think we've demonstrated through various environments, one, that we can deliver strong cash flow, and that's what we're focused on doing now. As we think about the fixed cost utilization, I don't expect any spillovers into 2024. The actions that we're taking will be complete this year.

勞倫斯，這是威利。關於你的觀點，我認為我們已經透過各種環境證明，第一，我們可以提供強勁的現金流，而這正是我們現在專注於做的事情。當我們考慮固定成本利用率時，我預期不會有任何外溢效應持續到 2024 年。我們正在採取的行動將在今年完成。

Also on the incrementals, I think you've seen the decrementals that we're talking about. The incrementals will be equally positive. And I would add on to that, to your point, to get to the levels that you're talking about, that includes the mix upgrade and the high-value products as we think about our Advanced Materials and the more specialty nature there.

另外，關於增量，我想您已經看到了我們正在討論的減量。增量同樣為正。我想補充一點，就你的觀點而言，要達到你所說的水平，包括混合升級和高價值產品，因為我們考慮的是先進材料和更專業的性質。

And secondly, kind of now that your peers are facing kind of more pressure on -- from the credit cycle, you always seem to have a sweet spot in M&A around finding people who are underinvesting in the engineering. Has your M&A pipeline changed? Or can you characterize kind of how actively you're looking at opportunities?

其次，現在您的同行面臨著更多來自信貸週期的壓力，您在併購中似乎總能找到一個最佳時機，找到那些在工程方面投資不足的人。您的併購管道有變化嗎？或者您能否描述一下您尋找機會的積極程度？

Yes. We're more focused on the bolt-on pipeline. We did a great bolt-on earlier this year in our performance films business. We're right now focused on our organic growth strategy with our investment in the 3 circular platforms.

是的。我們更加關注螺栓固定管道。今年早些時候，我們在表演電影業務方面取得了巨大的進步。我們現在專注於有機成長策略，投資於三個循環平台。

We are looking -- our pipeline is mostly focused in smaller bolt-ons in Advanced Materials and Additives & Functional Products. And we're going to be disciplined with that strategy and stay focused on executing and in executing it well.

我們正在尋找—我們的管道主要集中在先進材料和添加劑及功能產品中的小型附加產品。我們將嚴格執行該戰略，並專注於執行並做好該戰略。

Yes. The recent acquisition we did of a manufacturing site in China is a great example. Performance films business has been performing incredibly well in this auto market last year, in this auto market this year. It's a very high-margin business. And that acquisition allows us to be domestically based on how we support customers in China, which is definitely where the China government wants to go is things made in China.

是的。我們最近在中國收購的一個製造基地就是一個很好的例子。性能膜業務在去年和今年的汽車市場表現都非常出色。這是一項利潤非常高的業務。此次收購使我們能夠立足國內，為中國客戶提供支持，而這正是中國政府希望看到的，即中國製造。

And those are great tuck-in acquisitions. Very highly accretive. Those are the kind of things we're focused on right now because our real priority is growing our dividend and creating this sort of organic-driven growth story around being a leader in the circular economy, both polyester and cellulosic.

這些都是很棒的收購。增值性非常高。這些都是我們現在關注的事情，因為我們真正的優先事項是增加股息，並圍繞著成為聚酯和纖維素循環經濟領域的領導者，創造這種有機驅動的成長故事。

And then just lastly, can you characterize or give a little bit more detail on what you think is going on with the agriculture chain inventories? I guess the timing and the severity of the adjustments seemed to have caught a lot of the industry a little bit flat-footed. So just curious about what you're hearing in terms of when people think it will end because I think you have a comment in the remarks about it accelerating into Christmas?

最後，您能否描述一下或更詳細地介紹一下您認為農業鏈庫存的情況？我想，這些調整的時間和力道似乎讓很多產業措手不及。所以我只是好奇你聽到的關於人們認為它什麼時候會結束的說法，因為我認為你在評論中提到它會在聖誕節前加速結束？

So I wouldn't say it's accelerating in the Christmas necessarily. So -- but what happened, I think, is pretty well discussed out there. Two things really.

所以我並不認為聖誕節期間這股趨勢必然會加速。所以——但我認為，發生的事情已經得到了充分的討論。確實有兩件事。

Last year, with all the Ukraine events around ammonia and other uncertainties around supply chain, farmers around the world were stocking up on safety stock. And their warehouses, the retailers were stocking up on safety stock. Their distributors were stocking on safety stock. All the way back to the big players that make the products like Syngenta, Corteva, et cetera.

去年，由於烏克蘭發生氨事件以及供應鏈上的其他不確定因素，世界各地的農民都在囤積安全庫存。零售商的倉庫裡都儲存著安全庫存。他們的分銷商正在儲備安全庫存。一直追溯到生產先正達、科迪華等產品的大公司。

And so demand was really good. That was true through the first quarter. And as this chain started looking at season that wasn't going to quite need quite as much product because of the dry weather and not meeting it as much, and feeling like supply chains were now safe to rely on, sort of in the middle of Q2 kicked in significant destocking downstream of us.

因此需求確實很好。第一季確實如此。當這個連鎖店開始考慮由於天氣乾燥而不再需要那麼多產品的季節時，感覺供應鏈現在可以安全地依賴了，在第二季度中期，我們下游開始出現大量去庫存的情況。

So we started to feel some of that destocking from our direct customers in the second quarter. And it ramped up to full destocking as we go into the third quarter and, to some degree, in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們在第二季開始感受到直接客戶的一些去庫存現象。進入第三季度，去庫存化進程加速至全面去庫存，而第四季度也在一定程度上如此。

There's a lot of debate going on, I'd say, about just when does that destocking end and when they have to start ramping up on production to meet the growing season next year. It's important to realize that the final in-demand for the farmers is good this year and expect it to be good next year.

我想說，關於何時結束去庫存以及何時必須開始提高產量以滿足明年的生長季節，存在著許多爭論。重要的是要認識到今年農民的最終需求是好的，並預計明年也會很好。

So this really is a whole inventory management cycle we're in. And at some point, they'll have to kick back into gear to make sure they have enough supply for next year, whether that's in the fourth quarter or the first -- the beginning of the first quarter, it has to happen sometime around then or they won't have enough inventory for the next growing season.

所以，我們確實處於一個完整的庫存管理週期。在某個時候，他們必須重新開始努力，以確保明年有足夠的供應，無論是在第四季度還是第一季度初，都必須在那時左右發生，否則他們將沒有足夠的庫存來供應下一個生長季節。

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

I guess I just wanted to go to AM and AFP. There are some markets which you are seeing -- which we're seeing some strength in, notably maybe the aerospace side and maybe the food side. Is that what you're seeing as well? And some of those stronger markets, you'd expect that to persist through the second half? How would you comment on some of your stronger markets?

我想我只是想去 AM 和 AFP。您可以看到，有些市場—我們看到了這些市場的一些優勢，尤其是航空航太領域和食品領域。這也是您所看到的嗎？您預計其中一些強勁的市場將持續到下半年嗎？您如何評價一些較強的市場？

So when it comes to aviation, our view is the market was -- has really improved through the first half of the year and will stay strong in the back half of the year.

因此，就航空業而言，我們的觀點是，市場在上半年確實有所改善，並將在下半年保持強勁。

I wouldn't say it's not still going to grow relative to the first half of the year, but it will -- because it's been pretty strong, but it will stay that way. The airlines are obviously very confident about their demand, going forward. And we'll track with wherever their demand goes. Right now, that's their viewpoint, and we're using their view to build our forecast.

我不會說它相對於今年上半年不會繼續增長，但它會——因為它已經相當強勁，而且它會保持這種狀態。航空公司顯然對未來的需求非常有信心。無論他們的需求如何，我們都會進行追蹤。現在，這是他們的觀點，我們正在利用他們的觀點來建立我們的預測。

And then just as a quick follow-up. Some other markets are notably on the weaker side. You addressed some of the destocking that's going on in amines in the ag side. What are some of the other areas that maybe turned out worse than you expected? And you've addressed a couple on the call already, but if you were to reiterate some of the weaker areas, what would those be?

然後只是進行快速跟進。其他一些市場明顯表現疲軟。您談到了農業領域胺類產品去庫存化的問題。還有哪些領域的情況可能比您預期的更糟？您已經在電話中提到了幾個問題，但如果您要重申一些較弱的領域，您會說哪些是？

From a Q2 point of view, the end market-wise, I'd say -- from an end market growth point of view, I don't think much has changed in our view across all of our end markets. We haven't seen different end markets get worse or better. Auto is strong. Obviously, discretionary markets are under pressure.

從第二季的角度來看，就終端市場而言，我想說——從終端市場成長的角度來看，我認為我們所有終端市場都沒有太大變化。我們還沒有看到不同的終端市場變得更糟或更好。自動功能強大。顯然，非必需消費品市場正面臨壓力。

The personal care, water treatment, those kind of markets, are off 3% to 5% as all those downstream customers of ours that you can see in the fast-moving goods and everything else, reporting that they're focusing on pricing discipline and as a result, having a little bit less volume.

個人護理、水處理等市場下降了 3% 至 5%，因為我們所有的下游客戶（你可以在快速消費品和其他所有產品中看到）都報告說，他們專注於定價紀律，因此銷售量略有下降。

I don't think anything that's changed really. It's been more of a -- it's all about inventory management. It's the entire story for some of the negative surprises like medical packaging and ag in the second quarter, and destocking dragging out into the back half of the year, right?

我認為實際上並沒有什麼改變。這更像是——這全是關於庫存管理的。這就是第二季醫療包裝和農業等一些負面意外以及去庫存拖延到下半年的全部故事，對嗎？

I just think that the extremity of COVID and then the following stimulus and the supply chain crisis has just led to a lot more inventory being built throughout the world than I think any of us really understood. And it's taking, obviously, a lot longer to pull it down, especially when demand is soft to some degree in every market.

我只是認為，COVID 的極端性以及隨後的刺激措施和供應鏈危機導致全球範圍內庫存的增加遠遠超出了我們任何人真正理解的程度。顯然，要降低這一水平需要更長的時間，尤其是在每個市場的需求都出現一定程度的疲軟的情況下。

Okay. I believe that was our last question. So thanks very much for your interest in Eastman and for joining us this morning. I hope everybody has a great day.

好的。我相信這是我們的最後一個問題。非常感謝您對伊士曼的關注以及今天上午加入我們。我希望每個人都度過愉快的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路了。