道爾 (DOV) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Dover's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Speaking today are Richard J. Tobin, President and Chief Executive Officer; Brad Cerepak, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jack Dickens, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

早上好，歡迎參加 Dover 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天發言的是總裁兼執行長 Richard J. Tobin； Brad Cerepak，資深副總裁兼財務長；狄更斯（Jack Dickens），投資者關係高級總監。

After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded, and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, please disconnect at this time. Thank you.

演講者發言結束後，將進入問答環節。 [操作說明] 女士先生們，請注意，本次電話會議正在錄音，您的參與即表示您同意我們對本次電話會議進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，請此時斷開連線。謝謝。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jack Dickens, please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話轉給傑克狄更斯先生，請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Jamie, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. An audio version of this call will be available on our website through August 15, and a replay link of the webcast will be archived for 90 days. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ from those statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

謝謝傑米，大家早安，謝謝您加入我們的電話會議。本次電話會議的音訊版本將於 8 月 15 日之前在我們的網站上提供，並且網路廣播的重播連結將存檔 90 天。我們今天的評論將包括基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。由於許多風險和不確定性，實際結果和事件可能與這些聲明有所不同，這些風險和不確定性在我們的 SEC 文件中進行了討論。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Rich Thanks, Jack.

接下來，我會將電話轉給 Rich，謝謝，傑克。

Thanks, Jack.

謝謝，傑克。

I'm on Slide 3. Second quarter results were solid, driven by excellent production and shipment performance against our order book. Strong revenue performance was broad-based across our end markets and geographic exposures with four out of five segments posting top line growth. Organic revenue was up 5% for the quarter.

我在投影片 3 上。強勁的收入表現遍及我們的終端市場和地理區域，五分之四的細分市場實現了營收成長。本季有機收入成長 5%。

Bookings were up 16% organically year over year, continuing their upward trajectory over the last several quarters and bolstering our confidence in our second half outlook. Margin performance was excellent, up 200 basis points over the prior year to 22.1%, driven by volume leverage, organic and inorganic mix, proactive cost management and rigorous productivity actions.

預訂量年增 16%，延續了過去幾季的上升趨勢，增強了我們對下半年前景的信心。在銷售槓桿、有機和無機組合、積極的成本管理和嚴格的生產力行動的推動下，利潤率表現出色，比上年增長 200 個基點，達到 22.1%。

Our strong operational results were complemented by ongoing portfolio evolution actions over the last week, we have completed two strategic bolt-on acquisitions, enhancing our clean energy components platform, adding applications in highly attractive end markets, expanding our global reach and strategically expanding our manufacturing base into new regions.

上週持續的投資組合演變行動補充了我們強勁的營運業績，我們完成了兩項策略性補強收購，增強了我們的清潔能源組件平台，在極具吸引力的終端市場中增加了應用程序，擴大了我們的全球影響力，並策略性地擴大了我們的製造立足新地區。

And we also recently announced the sale of our Environmental Services group business unit for $2 billion in cash. This transaction, together with the sale of the stake in March of this year reflects our intention to reduce our exposure to capital goods. We have monetized these businesses where we have materially improved operating performance at attractive exit multiples while methodically migrating our portfolio toward higher organic growth and margin opportunities.

我們最近也宣布以 20 億美元現金出售環境服務集團業務部門。這項交易以及今年 3 月出售的股權反映了我們減少資本貨物曝險的意圖。我們已經將這些業務貨幣化，以有吸引力的退出倍數大幅改善了經營業績，同時有條不紊地將我們的投資組合轉向更高的有機成長和利潤機會。

We are approaching the second half of the year constructively. The underlying end market demand is healthy and is supported by our sustained order rates. We are therefore raising our adjusted EPS guidance to $9.05 to $9.20.

我們正在建設性地迎接下半年。潛在的終端市場需求是健康的，並且得到我們持續的訂單率的支持。因此，我們將調整後每股盈餘指引上調至 9.05 美元至 9.20 美元。

I'll skip to Slide 4. Engineered Products had another robust quarter driven particularly strong volume growth and conversion of waste handling and aerospace and defense volumes of Vehicle Aftermarket grew in recovering European market conditions and improved production performance. We expect volumes to remain strong for the segment through 2024.

我將跳到幻燈片4。售後市場的銷量也有所成長。我們預計到 2024 年該領域的銷售將保持強勁。

Margin performance was solid in the quarter on strong volume conversion, favorable mix and productivity, clean energy and feeling was up 2% organically in the quarter on solid volumes in clean energy components where we're starting to see robust quoting activity and order rate momentum from component parts tied to large projects in hydrogen and cryogenic applications.

本季的利潤率表現穩健，得益於強勁的銷量轉換、有利的組合和生產力、清潔能源和感覺，本季清潔能源組件的銷量穩定增長了2%，我們開始看到強勁的報價活動和訂單率勢頭來自與氫和低溫應用大型項目相關的零件。

Volumes were also solid. Software Systems and above-ground retail fueling continued its positive recovery, particularly in the US. Margins were flat in the quarter as proactive cost containment for talent, all set volumes and mix. Imaging and ID posted an excellent quarter on growth in serialization software and strong shipments from marketing and marketing and marking and coding consumables and aftermarket parts printer shipments were still subdued, improved sequentially and should inflect positively in the second half.

銷量也很強勁。軟體系統和地上零售業繼續積極復甦，尤其是在美國。由於對人才、所有設定數量和組合的積極成本控制，本季利潤率持平。成像和ID 季度表現出色，得益於序列化軟體的成長以及行銷和行銷、標記和噴碼耗材以及售後零件印表機出貨量的強勁成長，但印表機出貨量仍處於低迷狀態，但環比有所改善，預計下半年將出現正面變化。

Margin performance was exemplary on SG&A leverage and a higher mix of consumables and aftermarket shipments Pumps & Process Solutions was down organically as expected, principally due to lower shipments in our long-cycle polymer processing business. Partially offsetting these headwinds were significant growth in shipments and new bookings for thermal connectors tied to a chip liquid cooling applications and data centers as well as a solid quarter in precision components.

SG＆A槓桿率以及消耗品和售後市場出貨量的更高組合的利潤率表現堪稱典範。 。與晶片液體冷卻應用和資料中心相關的熱連接器的出貨量和新訂單的大幅成長，以及精密元件的強勁季度業績，部分抵消了這些不利因素。

Both orders and shipments of single use biopharma components grew sequentially and year over year, continuing to post COVID recovery. Margins in the segment were up on mix and operational execution. Top line performance in climate and sustainable sustainability technologies outperformed our internal estimates due to an exceptional quarter in food retail, which nearly offset the capital investment slowdown in beverage beverage can making an impact of destocking headwinds in the broader HVAC complex most notably in European residential heat pumps on our European brazed plate heat exchanger business.

一次性生物製藥組件的訂單和出貨量持續成長，年成長，在新冠疫情復甦後持續成長。該部門的利潤率因組合和營運執行而上升。由於食品零售季度表現出色，氣候和永續發展技術的營收表現超出了我們的內部預期，這幾乎抵消了飲料資本投資放緩可能對更廣泛的暖通空調綜合體（尤其是歐洲住宅供暖）去庫存逆風的影響我們歐洲釬焊板式熱交換器業務中的泵浦。

We expect these headwinds to persist in the second half with heat pump related shipments troughing in the third quarter margin performance was exceptional, driven, particularly by food retail, which posted all-time record margin in the quarter on strong volume conversion and conversion and a greater mix of CO2 systems shipments.

我們預計這些不利因素將在下半年持續存在，熱泵相關出貨量在第三季觸底，利潤率表現異常出色，特別是在食品零售的推動下，該季度由於強勁的銷量轉換和轉換以及二氧化碳系統的出貨量更加多樣化。

I'll pass it to Brad here.

我會把它傳遞給布拉德。

Okay. I'm on Slide 6. The top right shows organic revenue growth of 5% and the De-Sta-Co sale, which was closed on March 31, more than offset acquisition related revenue of $9 million, while FX was a headwind of approximately $13 million.

好的。我在幻燈片 6 上。 1300萬美元。

From a geographic perspective, the U.S., our largest market was up 11% in the quarter on solid broad-based activity, with particular strength in waste handling and food food, retail, Europe and all of Asia was down 4% and 9% respectively. China, which represents half our revenue base in Asia was down 8% organically in the quarter, primarily due to shipment timing within polymer processing on the bottom of the chart.

從地理角度來看，我們最大的市場美國本季成長了 11%，得益於廣泛的基礎活動，特別是廢棄物處理和食品、零售業，歐洲和整個亞洲分別下降了 4% 和 9% 。中國占我們在亞洲收入基礎的一半，本季有機下降了 8%，這主要是由於圖表底部聚合物加工中的發貨時間造成的。

Bookings were up year over year of no orders were also marginally up sequentially on an organic basis quarter to quarter below the line items negatively impacted our earnings in the quarter, driven by a higher tax rate as well as higher corporate costs net of interest due in part to elevated deal expenses.

由於稅率上升以及扣除利息後的企業成本上升，訂單量逐年上升，無訂單也逐季略有上升，低於細目項目對我們本季度的收益產生了負面影響。

Now on our cash flow statement, Slide 7. Adjusting for taxes paid on the gain De-Sta-Co, which are non-operational in nature, our free cash flow came in at 10% of revenue in the quarter, up $64 million year-over-year. Year-to-date, adjusted free cash flow is essentially flat versus the prior period despite investments in working capital due to shipment timing driving higher receivable balances as well as investments in inventory due to strong bookings rates.

現在我們的現金流量表，幻燈片7。萬美元-同比。今年迄今為止，儘管由於發貨時間推動應收帳款餘額增加而進行了營運資本投資，並且由於預訂率強勁而進行了庫存投資，但調整後的自由現金流基本上與上一時期持平。

We expect to materially liquidate our working capital balances over the second half of the year and are on track to deliver our full year adjusted free cash flow guidance of 13% to 15% of revenue.

我們預計將在下半年大幅清算我們的營運資本餘額，並預計將實現全年調整後自由現金流佔收入的 13% 至 15% 的指導。

I'll turn it back to Rich.

我會把它還給里奇。

I am on Slide 8. Here, we provide some visibility into the contribution of the portfolio of both the ESG divestiture and the recently closed acquisitions in clean energy components providers, Marshall Excelsior and Demaco. These transactions continue our purposeful portfolio migration away from capital goods towards higher gross margin, less cyclical and higher growth component businesses, that serve secular, advantaged end markets. We have been methodical and disciplined in our approach to enhancing the portfolio through acquisitions and patient in our strategic divestitures.

我在幻燈片 8 上。這些交易繼續將我們的投資組合從資本貨物轉向更高毛利率、更少週期性和更高成長的組成部分業務，這些業務服務於長期的、有優勢的終端市場。我們在透過收購增強投資組合的方法上一直有條不紊、紀律嚴明，並在策略剝離方面保持耐心。

We are pleased with the valuations of our two recent divestitures within Engineered Products, ESG announced on Monday and De-Sta-Co, which closed in March that both achieved above 13 times trailing EBITDA multiples, significant premiums for capital goods assets. The transaction details are on the page. Due to the timing of the ESG signing and uncertainty of the closing date, we have left ESG in our full year guidance for now. We expect to move ESG discontinued ops in Q3 earnings report, and we'll recast our historical financials and guidance at that time.

我們對最近在工程產品領域進行的兩項剝離（週一宣布的ESG 和3 月份關閉的De-Sta-Co）的估值感到滿意，兩者均實現了13 倍以上的往績EBITDA 倍數，這對於資本貨物資產而言是顯著的溢價。交易詳情在頁面上。由於 ESG 簽署的時間和截止日期的不確定性，我們目前將 ESG 保留在全年指引中。我們預計將在第三季財報中轉移 ESG 已終止的業務，屆時我們將重新制定歷史財務數據和指引。

The ESG earnings profile is shown on the page. And importantly, we are not including any benefit of the transaction proceeds toward value-added capital deployment.

ESG 收益概況顯示在頁面上。重要的是，我們沒有將交易收益的任何收益納入增值資本部署。

We believe we are entering a 12- to 18-month period that represents a unique buying opportunity for attractive assets including many private equity-owned businesses that are overdue for exits in our highest priority areas of inorganic expansion. Our current balance sheet strength and cash flow forecast reinforced by the proceeds of the ESG divestiture positioned us well to remain on the front foot in pursuit of attractive capital deployment opportunities.

我們相信，我們正在進入一個12 至18 個月的時期，這對於有吸引力的資產來說是一個獨特的購買機會，其中包括許多私募股權擁有的企業，這些企業在我們最優先的無機擴張領域早就該退出了。 ESG 剝離收益增強了我們目前的資產負債表實力和現金流預測，使我們能夠在尋求有吸引力的資本部署機會方面保持領先地位。

Let's go to Slide 9. I wanted to provide a little more color on our collection of businesses that provide critical flow control and safety components for industrial gas, cryogenics, natural gas and clean energy applications. These businesses span across both our pumps and process solutions and clean energy and fueling segments, so there is significant commonality in industrial tailwinds and business models. These businesses provide highly engineered components that serve demanding applications in the broader clean energy and industrial gas complexes and there are growing requirements for sustainability, emissions reduction and safety that create favorable product loyalty dynamics and innovation opportunities for us.

讓我們看幻燈片 9。這些業務涵蓋我們的泵浦和製程解決方案以及清潔能源和燃料領域，因此工業順風和商業模式具有顯著的共通性。這些企業提供高度工程化的組件，為更廣泛的清潔能源和工業氣體綜合體中的高要求應用提供服務，並且對可持續性、減排和安全性的日益增長的要求為我們創造了有利的產品忠誠度動態和創新機會。

Our positions in these attractive markets are supported by strong and recognized technological and application expertise and intellectual property with large installed bases that drive reoccurring replacement demand as well as exposure to high growth uses like hydrogen and LNG.

我們在這些有吸引力的市場中的地位得到了強大且公認的技術和應用專業知識以及知識產權的支持，擁有龐大的安裝基礎，推動了反復出現的更換需求以及氫氣和液化天然氣等高增長用途。

We have been active acquirers in the space investing roughly $2 billion over the last several years. We believe these investments should generate mid to high-digit growth at margins accretive to our consolidated portfolio over the long run. This remains a high priority area investment for us moving forward.

過去幾年，我們一直是該領域的積極收購者，投資了約 20 億美元。我們相信，從長遠來看，這些投資應該會帶來中高位數的成長，從而增加我們的綜合投資組合的利潤率。這仍然是我們前進的一個高度優先的投資領域。

In light of our recent divestitures, with the scale of this critical component platform now reaching $1 billion of revenue, we intend to readdress our current segment structure in the near future to add focus and disclosures around our growth platforms.

鑑於我們最近的剝離，隨著這個關鍵組件平台的規模現已達到 10 億美元的收入，我們打算在不久的將來重新調整我們當前的部門結構，以增加對我們成長平台的關注和揭露。

Slide 10 provides a little bit more color on Marshall Excelsior, the larger of the two energy businesses that we've acquired in the last week. MEC’s acquisition broadens our portfolio in cryogenic valves and other components and expands our participation in several applications, including the expansion into remote monitoring and digital controls in cryogenic transport and severe duty valves providing an excellent opportunity for cross-selling. Integrating MEC into our existing clean energy platforms and centralized support functions should provide significant cost savings. We expect to capture about $12 million in run rate synergies driving MEC to high 20s margin and high single-digit ROIC by year three.

幻燈片 10 提供了關於 Marshall Excelsior 的更多信息，Marshall Excelsior 是我們上週收購的兩家能源公司中規模較大的一家。 MEC 的收購擴大了我們在低溫閥門和其他組件方面的產品組合，並擴大了我們在多個應用領域的參與，包括擴展到低溫運輸和重載閥門的遠端監控和數位控制領域，為交叉銷售提供了絕佳的機會。將 MEC 整合到我們現有的清潔能源平台和集中支援功能中應該可以顯著節省成本。我們預計到第三年將獲得約 1200 萬美元的運行率綜效，推動 MEC 達到 20 倍以上的高利潤率和高個位數的 ROIC。

Taking a step back, shows the broad scope of our offering within clean energy applications. We're supplying a variety of safety-critical components like valves, regulators, nozzles, loading arms, dispensing and gas handling equipment for a variety of applications across the high, the whole cryogenic gas value chain from production to consumption.

退後一步，我們可以看到我們在清潔能源應用領域的廣泛產品範圍。我們為從生產到消費的整個低溫氣體高價值鏈中的各種應用提供各種安全關鍵組件，如閥門、調節器、噴嘴、裝載臂、分配和氣體處理設備。

We serve both gas and liquefied gas applications with multiple molecules handled, including LNG, hydrogen propane, oxygen and nitrogen, among others, and we're benefiting from strong investment momentum by industrial gas majors and global government infrastructure spending. While a smaller deal for us, Demaco was also closed last week, providing us a very important European base of manufacturing to enhance our growth and global scale.

我們為天然氣和液化氣應用提供多種分子處理，包括液化天然氣、氫丙烷、氧氣和氮氣等，我們受惠於工業氣體巨頭的強勁投資勢頭和全球政府基礎設施支出。雖然對我們來說規模較小，但德馬科上週也完成了交易，為我們提供了一個非常重要的歐洲製造基地，以增強我們的成長和全球規模。

Finally, on Slide 12 shows the long-term performance of the portfolio. We continued to deliver earnings growth through a combination of top line organic growth, margin improvement through operational execution and returns on productive capital deployment strategies to methodically improve our portfolio over time. Our strong balance sheet position will be further enhanced by the proceeds of the ESG divestiture in the second half of the year.

最後，投影片 12 顯示了投資組合的長期績效。我們繼續透過頂線有機成長、透過營運執行提高利潤率以及生產性資本部署策略回報來實現獲利成長，從而隨著時間的推移有條不紊地改善我們的投資組合。今年下半年 ESG 剝離的收益將進一步增強我們強勁的資產負債表狀況。

We expect to end the year with approximately $3 billion in capital deployment firepower from cash and reasonable leverage levels. We have a number of levers available to deliver the second half of the flexible business model can quickly respond to changes in our dynamic markets. I'd like to end by thanking ESG President, Pat Carroll and his entire management team for the value they created for Dover shareholders under their tenure.

我們預計到年底，現金和合理槓桿水準將帶來約 30 億美元的資本部署火力。我們有許多可用的槓桿來提供下半年靈活的業務模式，可以快速回應我們動態市場的變化。最後，我要感謝 ESG 總裁 Pat Carroll 及其整個管理團隊在任職期間為多佛股東創造的價值。

With that, let's go to Q&A.

接下來，讓我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Your line is open.

（操作員指示）我們先請花旗集團的安迪‧卡普洛維茲（Andy Kaplowitz）。您的線路已開通。

Can you hear me okay?

你聽得到我說話嗎？

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

We can here you, Andy. Go ahead.

我們可以在這裡，安迪。前進。

Hey Rich, maybe you could talk about bookings cadence during the quarter and how you’re thinking about bookings growth going forward? Do you still see book-to-bill over 1 times for the rest of the year? And then as I’m sure you know, short-cycle market seem all over the place at best. So what are you seeing macro-wise? And would you say that Dover’s outperformance is really a result of Dover’s unique exposures versus a lot of macro improvement?

嘿，Rich，也許您可以談談本季的預訂節奏以及您如何看待未來的預訂成長？在今年剩下的時間裡，您是否仍然看到訂單到帳單超過 1 倍？然後，我相信您知道，短週期市場似乎充其量到處都是。那麼，您從宏觀角度看到了什麼？您是否認為多佛的優異表現實際上是多佛獨特的風險敞口與大量宏觀改善的結果？

Yes, I would expect it to be over one. As you know, I think that our comps are either in the second half of the year from an order basis. It’s been a little bit lumpy, I have to say, intra-quarter. So we’ll see how it goes, but our expectation is to be over one for the balance of the year. And I think that’s reflected if you take a look at our full year forecast in terms of revenue growth and everything else.

是的，我希望它會超過一。如您所知，我認為我們的比較要么是在下半年根據訂單進行的。我不得不說，季度內的情況有點不穩定。因此，我們將拭​​目以待，但我們的預期是在今年餘下的時間裡，這一數字將超過 1。我認為，如果你看看我們對收入成長和其他方面的全年預測，這一點就會得到反映。

The outperformance, I mean, I think at the end of the day, we led in, we led it out, and we’re probably leading in again. So as we’ve discussed previously, I think that our inventory positions are well placed and some of the markets that we have exposure to that have suffered over the previous 24 months or making a turn.

我的意思是，我認為最終，我們領先，我們領先，而且我們可能會再次領先。因此，正如我們之前討論的那樣，我認為我們的庫存狀況良好，而且我們接觸的一些市場在過去 24 個月中遭受了損失或出現了轉變。

We add on top of that some of the growth platforms like we have like thermal connectors and CO2 systems, which are performing very nicely. So. I think I’ll step away from the rest of our competitors in the macro. I just think it’s unique to our portfolio.

除此之外，我們還添加了一些生長平台，例如熱連接器和二氧化碳系統，它們的性能都非常好。所以。我想我會在宏觀上遠離我們的其他競爭對手。我只是認為這對我們的產品組合來說是獨一無二的。

Yes. Look, I think that when Belvac was well known going into the year, and that was part of our plans. I think there was a lot of mixed signals around heat exchangers. I think we’ve done a lot of work there. That’s why I think that we’re pretty confident to call the trough in Q3, and we would expect order rates actually to move up hopefully at the end of Q3, but clearly into Q4.

是的。聽著，我認為當貝爾瓦克在今年變得眾所周知時，這是我們計劃的一部分。我認為熱交換器周圍存在著許多混合訊號。我認為我們已經在那裡做了很多工作。這就是為什麼我認為我們非常有信心在第三季度迎來谷底，我們預計訂單率實際上預計將在第三季末上升，但顯然會進入第四季度。

I think on the food retail business, I think that CO2 is doing pretty much as planned, I think that what’s doing better than planned as the margin performance of the business has just been exemplary through the quarter. So that’s why when you look at the consolidated results, I don’t think that we would expected food retail to offset the margin deletion from heat exchangers, but during the quarter, it did, which has been excellent.

我認為在食品零售業務方面，我認為二氧化碳排放量幾乎按計劃進行，我認為，由於該業務的利潤率表現在本季度堪稱典範，所以比計劃的情況要好。因此，這就是為什麼當你查看合併結果時，我認為我們不會期望食品零售能夠抵消熱交換器的利潤損失，但在本季度，它確實做到了，這非常好。

Excellent. Appreciate the color.

出色的。欣賞顏色。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We’ll go now to Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

我們現在請傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague）和垂直研究合作夥伴（Vertical Research Partners）主持。

Hey Rich, just thinking about Slide 11 and everything you’ve kind of here on gas and cryo and everything, you’re characterizing it as kind of a component-driven strategy, and I get that margins are often very, very good in components. But it looks like you’re also stitching it together with some automation and some other things.

嘿，Rich，只要想想幻燈片 11 以及您在氣體和低溫方面的所有內容，您就會將其描述為一種組件驅動的策略，而且我知道利潤率通常非常非常好在組件中。但看起來您還在將其與一些自動化和其他一些東西縫合在一起。

So maybe just kind of talk about what else, if anything, you need or want to do here as we think about another $3 billion in capital to deploy, is it sort of all in the same ZIP code? Or are there other kind of M&A vectors we’ve got to be thinking about?

因此，當我們考慮部署另外 30 億美元的資本時，也許只是談談您還需要或想要在這裡做些什麼（如果有的話），是否全部都在同一個郵政編碼中？還是我們必須考慮其他類型的併購方式？

Yes. I’m hesitant to say well, a couple of things, Jeff. What we’re going to do, whether it’s before the end of the year or very early next year, I think you heard from my comments that we’re intending to re-segment and to give some more visibility here.

是的。我猶豫著要不要說好，傑夫，有幾件事。我們要做的事情，無論是在今年年底之前還是明年初，我想您從我的評論中聽到了，我們打算重新細分並在此處提供更多可見性。

When we do that, we’re going to make an investor presentation. I’m loath to say what we’re interested in because this area has gotten some intention. So in an area that over the last previous couple of years where we’ve been a buyer, now we’ve got some competition in this space. So I guess, I’ll take a pass on saying what we’d like to do in the future because I’m not interested in attracting any more interest there.

當我們這樣做時，我們將進行投資者介紹。我不願意說出我們感興趣的內容，因為這個領域已經有了一些意圖。因此，在過去幾年我們一直是買家的領域，現在我們在這個領域遇到了一些競爭。所以我想，我不會說我們將來想做的事情，因為我不想在那裡吸引更多的興趣。

And then one of the things we’ve seen out of Dover though, Rich, also is when you put these stakes in the ground you turn it up organically. I mean with your kind of flow and other competencies here, is there sort of a lot you can do organically to kind of expand your scope here? Or it would be mostly an M&A-driven strategy?

里奇，我們在多彿看到的一件事是，當你把這些木樁放在地裡時，你就會有機地把它翻起來。我的意思是，憑藉您的流程和其他能力，您是否可以有機地做很多事情來擴大您的範圍？或者這主要是併購驅動的策略？

There's two strategies here. I think, as I mentioned in the comments, we believe within 24 months, we can get this entire cluster of businesses, some of which are already performing here, but the entire cluster up into mid-20s EBITDA margin. And that will be through, number one, we think it's a growing area. So we're going to get some volume leverage there. But I think once we put our Dover playbook on back-office integration and all the things that you know about. I think that within 18, 24 months, we can drive the entire segment up there.

這裡有兩種策略。我認為，正如我在評論中提到的，我們相信在 24 個月內，我們可以獲得整個業務集群，其中一些業務已經在這裡表現良好，但整個集群的 EBITDA 利潤率達到 20 多歲。第一，我們認為這是一個不斷成長的領域。因此，我們將在那裡獲得一些成交量槓桿。但我認為一旦我們將多佛劇本放在後台整合以及您所知道的所有事情上。我認為在 18、24 個月內，我們可以推動整個細分市場的發展。

Okay. And just a quick one on this whole heat pump question. You're talking about Europe, specifically the whole business broadly, the bottom in your business or it's the bottom then your customers' business, that whole kind of lead lag equation, everybody has been trying to sort out?

好的。簡單介紹一下整個熱泵問題。你談論的是歐洲，特別是整個業務，你的業務處於底部，或者是你客戶的業務的底部，整個領先滯後方程，每個人都在試圖解決？

Yes. Yes. Well, it's unfortunate that we were all never aligned between the components manufacturers of the end market. But the fact of the matter is we – like I said in the comments, we've spent a lot of time on trying to determine total inventory in the chain. We believe that the – and it's mostly European heat pumps because that's the vast majority of the volume in the first place. Heat pumps North America and then the balance of the world proportionately is relatively small. So we think that we trough in terms of volume in Q3 and our expectation based on discussions we have with our customers, that inventory has been flushed and will go back to positive orders in Q4.

是的。是的。不幸的是，我們從未在終端市場的零件製造商之間保持一致。但事實是我們——就像我在評論中所說的那樣，我們花了很多時間來嘗試確定供應鏈中的總庫存。我們認為，主要是歐洲熱泵，因為這首先佔了絕大多數。北美和世界各地的熱泵所佔比例相對較小。因此，我們認為，從第三季的銷售來看，我們的預期是，根據與客戶的討論，庫存已被清空，並將在第四季度恢復正訂單。

And great. Thanks for the color. Thanks.

很棒。謝謝你的顏色。謝謝。

We'll go now to Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

現在我們請摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩 (Steve Tusa) 發言。

Hi, good morning. So as far as the orders are concerned, can you just give us some I missed the first call minutes of the call, so you may have said this, but just some color on how you expect them to trend sequentially? And then should we expect normal seasonality off of that in the fourth quarter?

嗨，早安。因此，就訂單而言，您能否給我們一些我錯過了電話會議的第一個通話分鐘的信息，所以您可能已經說過了，但只是一些關於您預計它們將如何連續趨勢的顏色？那麼我們是否應該預期第四季會出現正常的季節性變化？

Look, I think that book-to-bill should remain one or higher for the balance of the year. I think that we have in Q2, I think we actually did a little bit better than I would have expected in terms of production performance and the shipment, and that's why it drove the 5% organic growth, and that's at – that changes the metric, but I think that order rates we've got a good handle on. I think we stay above one for the balance of the year. Q4 generally is going to be a proxy on everybody's macro outlook of 25.

聽著，我認為今年餘下的時間裡，訂單出貨比應該保持在 1 或更高。我認為我們在第二季度的生產業績和出貨量方面實際上比我預期的要好一些，這就是為什麼它推動了 5％ 的有機增長，而這就是變化指標，但我認為我們已經很好地掌握了訂單率。我認為我們在今年餘下的時間都保持在這一水平之上。第四季通常將代表每個人對 25 的宏觀前景。

But as I said before, I think that we roll into some easier comps than and something like SWEP should turn positive finally in Q4, if not at the end of the Q3. And I think the momentum that we're going to have in thermal biopharma, the momentum we have in CO2 all will contribute to staying above one.

但正如我之前所說，我認為我們會推出一些比 SWEP 更容易的比較，即使不是在第三季末，最終也應該在第四季轉為正數。我認為我們在熱生物製藥方面的勢頭，我們在二氧化碳方面的勢頭都將有助於保持在 1 以上。

Okay. And then just in the quarter, I know you guys had said flat sequentially, you were down a little bit. I know that's kind of nitpicking, but what was slower for you guys in that orders, just the one or two things that held that back a bit?

好的。然後就在這個季度，我知道你們連續說平淡，你們有點下滑。我知道這有點挑剔，但是對於你們來說，在這個訂單中，什麼是比較慢的，只是一兩件事阻礙了這一點？

Steve and I have to go through it. I'm sure that somebody took some outsized big orders in Q2 of the previous comparable I'd have to go dig through it. I'll get Jack to follow-up.

史蒂夫和我必須經歷這一切。我確信有人在上一季的第二季接了一些超大的大訂單，我必須仔細研究一下。我會讓傑克跟進。

Yes. What we said organically, it was sequentially up marginally. So you got to take into effect the disposition of De-Sta-Co, the acquisition timing within the quarter and also FX, which was higher than we expected in the quarter, Steve.

是的。我們所說的有機地，它是連續小幅上升的。因此，你必須考慮 De-Sta-Co 的處置、本季內的收購時機以及外匯，這比我們在本季的預期要高，史蒂夫。

Yes, got it. Okay. Makes a lot of sense. Thank you.

是的，明白了。好的。很有道理。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We'll go now to Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

現在我們請美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin) 發言。

Yes, good morning.

是的，早安。

Hi

你好

Again, just a question about sort of acquisitions. You're sort of increasing your exposure to green energy. But I think our sense is that at least for now, a lot of these orders are being not orders, just a lot of these projects have been pushed out over regulations. Sort of visibility on taxes, visibility on funding. I mean, clearly, it's an informed bet. And I think in May at our event in New York, we definitely talked about that quotation activity is very, very robust.

再說一次，這只是一個關於收購類型的問題。您正在增加對綠色能源的接觸。但我認為我們的感覺是，至少目前，很多訂單都不是訂單，只是很多項目因法規而被推遲。稅收的可見性、資金的可見性。我的意思是，顯然，這是一個明智的選擇。我認為五月在紐約舉行的活動中，我們確實談到了報價活動非常非常強勁。

Can you just sort of talk about what it is you're seeing over the next 12 to 24 months that makes you commit capital to the sector. And to make it clear, we’re quite excited about it, but it does seem that near-term, there are some push outs? Just give us your view because you tend to think about these things? Thank you.

您能簡單談談您在未來 12 到 24 個月內看到的是什麼促使您向該行業投入資金的東西嗎？明確地說，我們對此感到非常興奮，但短期內似乎確實有一些推出？請告訴我們您的觀點，因為您傾向於考慮這些事情？謝謝。

Yes. I mean, Andrew, look, I mean, at the end of the day, you can’t – when the market is there, it’s too late to buy anything, right? So you need to basically take some bets on what you think has got secular growth behind it. So if we think about thematic at the end of the day, I mean, there’s a whole stream of electrification. We’re not chasing that meaningfully. We’ve had a presence in the gas sector for decades. So we know the customers, we know the regulatory environment around it and everything else. So we’re big believers in the electricity has got to come from somewhere, and we’re big believers that the total gas complex is going to be an important contributor there.

是的。我的意思是，安德魯，聽著，我的意思是，在一天結束時，你不能——當市場存在時，買任何東西都太晚了，對吧？因此，你基本上需要對你認為背後有長期成長的東西進行一些押注。因此，如果我們最終考慮主題，我的意思是，會有一整套電氣化的趨勢。我們並沒有有意義地追求這一點。我們在天然氣領域已經立足數十年。因此，我們了解客戶，了解客戶周圍的監管環境以及其他一切。因此，我們堅信電力必須來自某個地方，我們堅信整個天然氣綜合體將成為那裡的重要貢獻者。

What we’re buying are large installed base at the end of the day. So we’re not paying on the comp to a certain extent. But cryogenic components and vacuum jacketed piping were kind of niche businesses in the past, but to the extent that cryogenic gas applications continues to expand, we’re mixed. We’re buying these things and we’re expanding capacity on top of them as we do it. So if we get the timing off a little bit, so be it at the end of the day, I think. But from a secular point of view, we’re pretty confident of what we’re doing.

我們購買的是最終的大型安裝基礎。因此，我們在一定程度上不會支付補償費用。但低溫元件和真空夾套管道在過去屬於利基業務，但隨著低溫氣體應用的不斷擴大，我們的情況是喜憂參半。我們正在購買這些東西，並在這樣做的同時擴大它們的產能。因此，我認為，如果我們把時間安排得稍微晚一些，那就在一天結束的時候吧。但從世俗的角度來看，我們對我們正在做的事情非常有信心。

All right. Got you. And maybe a little bit more color on what you’re seeing on DPPS, right? You’re sort of highlighting year-over-year growth in biopharma. And then clearly, I think you’re sort of talking about thermal connections. So what kind of growth can we think about – just two-part question. What kind of growth can we think about thermal connections? Can this business actually double over the next 12 months? And second on biopharma, when do we actually start growing year-over-year? Thank you.

好的。明白你了。也許您在 DPPS 上看到的內容更加豐富多彩，對吧？您在某種程度上強調了生物製藥領域的年成長。很明顯，我認為您在談論熱連接。那麼我們可以考慮什麼樣的成長——這只是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。我們可以考慮熱連接的什麼樣的成長？這項業務在未來 12 個月內真的能翻倍嗎？其次是生物製藥，我們什麼時候真正開始逐年成長？謝謝。

Well, we should grow year-over-year right this year, considering we probably bottomed in the mid to late of 2023, so that’s good news. And on the thermal, look, it’s a small base, but at the end of the day, our bookings are up significantly, and we would expect total revenue and earnings to be on target to what I think I gave you some numbers at the end of Q2 when we’re tracking that way. I believe the thermal is going to be interesting, right? Because back to your question before between all the hype of everybody talking about it and then the lag period, I think that we’re on the front foot for production capacity.

嗯，考慮到我們可能在 2023 年中後期觸底，今年我們應該會同比增長，所以這是個好消息。在熱量方面，看，它的基數很小，但最終，我們的預訂量顯著增加，我們預計總收入和收益將達到我認為我給你的一些數字的目標當我們以這種方式追踪時，是在第二季末。我相信熱氣流會很有趣，對吧？因為回到你之前的問題，在每個人都在談論它的所有炒作和滯後期之間，我認為我們在產能方面處於領先地位。

I think that we’ve got clean room production capacity, I think that we’re going to be able to have 100% traceability by the end of the year, which should separate us for a lot of people that are going to try to get into this business. So if I step back at DPPS in total, we knew that Maag was cycled down after a three, four year run coming up. Industrial pumps is, I would call it, not robust right now, but that has been offset by precision components, which is really part of the exposure that we’ve got into the gas complex and the mix effect of both biopharma and thermal connectors.

我認為我們已經擁有無塵室生產能力，我認為我們將能夠在今年年底之前實現 100% 的可追溯性，這應該會讓許多想要嘗試的人將我們區分開來進入這個行業。因此，如果我退一步看 DPPS 的總數，我們知道 Maag 在三、四年的運行後會被淘汰。我認為，工業泵浦目前並不堅固，但這已被精密零件所抵消，這確實是我們接觸氣體複合體以及生物製藥和熱連接器的混合效應的一部分。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We’ll go next to Scott Davis with Melius Research.

接下來我們將與 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis 進行交流。

Good morning, Rick and Brett. I wanted to go back to, I think, the second relative to Jeff’s question really on Slide 11. Are there channel synergies? Are there synergies that are kind of tangible when you just look at the assets on this page, is it just commonality of end markets? Or are there actually some tangible synergies and benefits of bringing them all together under one segment?

早安，瑞克和布雷特。我想我想回到投影片 11 上與 Jeff 問題相關的第二個問題。當您僅查看此頁​​面上的資產時，是否存在有形的協同效應，這只是終端市場的共性嗎？或者將它們整合到一個細分市場中實際上是否會產生一些切實的協同效應和好處？

Sure. Yes. I mean we bought RegO and Acme at the end of 2021. So Maag basically is an overlap adjacency to those prior period acquisitions. So it’s just about adding a bunch of new products under a footprint that we already have. There is a manufacturing footprint opportunity there, clearly, both inbound and reverse synergy on the footprint.

當然。是的。我的意思是我們在 2021 年底收購了 RegO 和 Acme。 所以 Maag 基本上是與前期收購的重疊鄰接。因此，這只是在我們已有的足跡下增加一堆新產品。顯然，那裡存在著製造足跡的機會，無論是入境還是反向協同。

These are global businesses. So part of the reason that we did Demaco is you just can't say I'm a North American provider. When you're dealing with companies like Linde, you need to have a European presence. So that's why we purchased Demaco to kind of make our presence in Europe larger at the end of the day. And so what we're kind of building A lot of the times, they're the same customer. A lot of the times, they're adjacencies, but the regulatory and safety requirements to build those kind of components are very common, and it's just an ability that we have.

這些都是全球性的業務。因此，我們選擇 Demaco 的部分原因是你不能說我是北美提供者。當您與林德這樣的公司打交道時，您需要在歐洲開展業務。這就是我們收購 Demaco 的原因，最終目的是擴大我們在歐洲的業務。所以我們正在建造的東西很多時候，他們是同一個客戶。很多時候，它們是相鄰的，但建構此類組件的監管和安全要求非常常見，這只是我們擁有的能力。

Okay. Just following up with your bullish M&A comments, I think last quarter was trending this direction, too. I mean, is it commentary more on asset availability or valuation or both more asset available availability?

好的。繼您樂觀的併購評論之後，我認為上個季度也朝著這個方向發展。我的意思是，它更多的是對資產可用性或估值的評論，還是更多資產可用可用性的評論？

More asset availability. I mean, look, we've been hearing about it was supposed to be 2023 than it was supposed to be 2024. And now we're beginning to see assets coming out of PE, but our expectation is the process is going to accelerate I think everybody has been waiting for an interest rate cut to kind of flex it. I mean the equity markets have been doing relatively well, and that is helpful in terms of not to us in terms of buying, but it's helpful for exit. From a PE point of view.

更多資產可用性。我的意思是，看，我們一直聽說應該是 2023 年，而不是 2024 年。調整它。我的意思是，股市表現相對較好，這對我們的買入而言不是有幫助，但對退出有幫助。從PE的角度來看。

So we've been kind of waiting for this opportunity for a couple of years now, and I think that we're kind of bullish that we'll see if we get them done, right? We're going to not start drawing money around like drunk and sellers, but I think that we're on the front foot, we think there's going to be a lot of opportunity going forward. And now with the monetization of ESG, we're a cash buyer. So that puts us in a good spot.

所以我們已經等待這個機會好幾年了，我認為我們有點樂觀，我們會看看我們是否能完成這些任務，對嗎？我們不會像醉漢和賣家那樣開始騙錢，但我認為我們處於領先地位，我們認為未來會有很多機會。現在，隨著 ESG 貨幣化，我們成為了現金買家。這讓我們處於一個有利的位置。

Yes. Good luck. Thank you.

是的。祝你好運。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We'll hear next from Brett Linzey with Mizuho.

接下來我們將聽到布雷特·林澤 (Brett Linzey) 和瑞穗 (Mizuho) 的發言。

Hi, good morning all. Just, I just wanted to come back to the ESG divestiture. So you called out the dollar of dilution to adjusted EPS on Slide 8. You've announced a couple of deals here. How are you thinking about the backfill? Do you have line of sight to more than offset with M&A? Or should we think about a balance of repo in M&A?

嗨，大家早安。只是，我只是想回到 ESG 剝離問題上來。因此，您在幻燈片 8 上列出了調整後每股收益的稀釋金額。您如何考慮回填？您的目光是否不僅限於併購？還是應該考慮併購中回購的平衡？

I think that our bias would be towards M&A. But I think we've got a history, we don't sit on cash for a prolonged period of time. The good news now is unlike a couple of years ago, we actually get some yield off our cash. If we rewind the clock back cash three years ago, you've got nothing for it.

我認為我們的偏見是併購。但我認為我們有歷史，我們不會長期持有現金。現在的好消息與幾年前不同，我們實際上從現金中獲得了一些收益。如果我們把時間倒回三年前，你就一無所獲。

So yields right now on cash balances, let's just call it, 5% or so. that's not bad. So we can be a little bit more patient, if you will. And if you heard me answer the last question, we think there's going to be a lot of M&A opportunity coming forward. So, I think our bias is probably a lot more towards M&A than share repurchase than it's been over the previous three years to four years.

所以現在現金餘額的收益率，我們姑且稱之為 5% 左右。那還不錯。因此，如果您願意的話，我們可以多一點耐心。如果你聽到我回答最後一個問題，我們認為將會有很多併購機會。因此，我認為與過去三到四年相比，我們對併購的偏見可能更多於股票回購。

Okay, great. And then just a follow-up on free cash flow. So thinking about the composition of ESG. out some of these more recurring businesses into the mix, how should we think about free cash flow margin as you evolve the portfolio and you're buying more more recurring cash flow?

好的，太好了。然後是自由現金流的後續行動。所以思考ESG的構成。將一些經常性業務納入組合中，當您發展投資組合並且購買更多經常性現金流時，我們應該如何考慮自由現金流利潤率？

Well, I mean, like the ESG actually from a working capital point of view is a pretty good performer. So the benefit would be on the gross margin, right? So what we're bringing in gross margin up, so profitability up. So the like for like swap of dollar of revenue should be better from the cash.

嗯，我的意思是，從營運資本的角度來看，ESG 實際上是一個相當不錯的表現。那麼好處就是毛利率，對嗎？所以我們提高了毛利率，提高了獲利能力。因此，美元收入的類似交換應該更好地來自現金。

Should be better, yes.

應該會更好，是的。

Great. Good quarter. Thanks.

偉大的。好季度。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Next, we'll hear from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

接下來，我們將聽取巴克萊銀行朱利安·米切爾的演講。

Hi, good morning. One segment that doesn't get a little airtime is DII, but it had a very impressive bookings, organic sales growth, margin performance in Q2. And I suppose on the revenue front, a good turnaround year-on-year from what happened second half of last year and into Q1 of this year. So I'm just trying to understand that the growth drivers there. And again, comps are pretty easy in the second half and on sales and the bookings growth was good in Q2.

嗨，早安。 DII 是一個沒有獲得太多關注的細分市場，但它在第二季度的預訂量、自然銷售成長和利潤率表現非常令人印象深刻。我認為在收入方面，從去年下半年到今年第一季度，收入比去年同期出現了良好的轉變。所以我只是想了解那裡的成長動力。再說一次，下半年的競爭相當容易，第二季的銷售和預訂成長也很好。

So just trying to understand kind of how strong could that growth be in the back half? And I realize the incrementals are exceptional to a degree with mix, but should we see at least very strong incrementals again in the second half?

所以只是想了解後半段的成長有多強勁？我意識到增量在某種程度上是混合的，但我們是否應該在下半年再次看到至少非常強勁的增量？

Yes. That's hard to say, right? I think at the end of the day, you have a pretty strong mix effect in Q2, right, because of consumables being proportionately higher than kind of average, I mean printer shipments actually dilute margins at the end of the day. So the per dollar shipment value is higher. But the margin dollars per revenue comes down a little bit.

是的。這很難說，對吧？我認為歸根結底，第二季度的混合效應非常強，對吧，因為消耗品的比例高於平均水平，我的意思是印表機出貨量實際上在一天結束時稀釋了利潤。因此每美元的運輸價值更高。但每收入的利潤率略有下降。

Thanks. And then I know you don't give much understandable, you don't give much color on the sort of quarterly cadence of earnings, but we're halfway through the year. And the seasonality has been confusing in recent years. So I just wondered sort of when we think about third and fourth quarter total Dover earnings sequentially, if you like, is it sort of Q3 up a bit sequentially on earnings and then down sequentially in Q4? Is that the way to think about it?Look, we're really happy with the margin performance. This business over the long run (ph) is a steady eddy. I think the management has done a great job of moving the margin up through more or less efficiency more than anything else. So we'd expect that to continue. But I wouldn't be surprised if you saw a little bit of margin dilution in the second half, especially if printer shipments move up proportionally to the consumables.

謝謝。然後我知道你沒有給出太多可以理解的信息，你沒有對季度收益節奏給出太多色彩，但我們今年已經過半了。近年來，季節性一直令人困惑。因此，我只是想知道，當我們按順序考慮多佛第三和第四季度的總收益時，如果您願意的話，是否是第三季度的收益連續上升，然後在第四季度連續下降？這是考慮問題的方式嗎？從長遠來看，這項業務（ph）是一個穩定的漩渦。我認為管理層在透過或多或少的效率來提高利潤方面做得非常出色。所以我們預計這種情況會持續下去。但如果你看到下半年利潤率略有下降，特別是如果印表機出貨量與消耗品成比例增長，我不會感到驚訝。

Okay. Thanks. And then just and I know you don't give much understandably you don't give much color on the sort of quarterly cadence of earnings, but the halfway through the year and the seasonality has been confusing in recent years. So I just wondered sort of when we think about third and fourth quarter total Dover earnings sequentially, if you like, is it sort of Q. three up a bit sequentially on earnings and then down sequentially in Q4. Is that the way to think about it?

好的。謝謝。然後，我知道你沒有給出太多可以理解的信息，你沒有對季度收益節奏給出太多色彩，但近年來年中和季節性一直令人困惑。因此，我只是想知道，當我們按順序考慮多佛第三季度和第四季度的總收益時，如果你願意的話，第三季度的收益是否會按順序略有上升，然後在第四季度按順序下降。是這樣思考的嗎？

Yes. Well, the way we think about it is a Q. one Q. two and Q. three tend to be up and then Q4 usually is a flex quarter and it depends on order rates and whether we drive for cash or really bullish on 25. And whether we build inventory or not in Q4, I would have seen I think that that kind of sequential performance is going to hold for this year. And that's what we've built into our forecast.

是的。好吧，我們的想法是，第一季、第二季度和第三季度往往會上升，然後第四季度通常是彈性季度，這取決於訂單率以及我們是追求現金還是真正看好 25。在第四季建立庫存，我都認為今年這種連續的表現將持續下去。這就是我們的預測。

That’s great. Thank you.

那太好了。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We'll go now to Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

現在我們請高盛的喬·里奇 (Joe Ritchie) 發言。

Hey, guys. Morning, Hey, so I'm going to start on ESG because Rich, I guess maybe I was the only one that was surprised that you guys ended up selling the business. I just thought of it as being a good margin, good return type business. I'm curious kind of what went into that decision as you thought about evaluating that asset over the long term?

嘿，夥計們。早安，嘿，所以我要開始討論 ESG，因為 Rich，我想也許我是唯一一個對你們最終出售業務感到驚訝的人。我只是認為這是一項利潤豐厚、回報豐厚的業務。我很好奇，當您考慮長期評估該資產時，是出於什麼原因做出了這個決定？

I don't know, Joe, I think that we've been fielding questions on the capital goods portion of our portfolio as long as I've been here. And we had said at least initially that we thought that we could improve the performance of the business. So that we were going to be patient and wait if someone was interested in it that we were going to wait to make sure that we are paid appropriately for it.

我不知道，喬，我認為自從我來到這裡以來，我們就一直在回答有關我們投資組合的資本貨物部分的問題。我們至少在一開始就說過，我們認為我們可以提高業務績效。因此，如果有人對此感興趣，我們將耐心等待，我們將等待以確保我們獲得適當的報酬。

I mean, I know that there's lots of different calculations about what we were paid, but the bottom line is on a, call it, a Q1 exit LTM basis, we got 13x EBITDA. And I come from capital goods. So the three premier companies and capital goods in the United States are PACCAR, Deere and Caterpillar and look where they trade on an EBITDA multiple basis.

我的意思是，我知道關於我們的薪酬有很多不同的計算，但底線是在第一季度退出 LTM 的基礎上，我們得到了 13 倍的 EBITDA。我來自資本貨物。因此，美國三大公司和資本貨物是 PACCAR、Deere 和 Caterpillar，並以 EBITDA 倍數為基礎查看它們的交易地點。

So at that point, that we think that we can monetize there. We should because at the end of the day, from a summer parts point of view, we get a capital goods multiple in that business. I don't want to talk to business down because the management team did a phenomenal job in terms of the performance of it, but the bottom line is it's one of our lowest gross margin businesses in the portfolio. So to the extent that we need to kind of mix up over time, and we're paid appropriately. I think that that's the way we look at it.

所以在這一點上，我們認為我們可以在那裡獲利。我們應該這樣做，因為最終，從夏季部分的角度來看，我們在該業務中獲得了資本貨物倍數。我不想貶低業務，因為管理團隊在績效方面做得非常出色，但最重要的是，它是我們投資組合中毛利率最低的業務之一。因此，我們需要隨著時間的推移進行混合，並且我們會得到適當的報酬。我認為這就是我們看待它的方式。

That's super helpful. And then I guess just my follow-up question and maybe just kind of talking about some of the other longer cycle pieces of your portfolio. So I'm thinking SWEP, Belvac and MAAG, what's kind of the expectation embedded into guidance for growth for those businesses this year? And is it too early to maybe start talking about 2025 and what those businesses could do?

這非常有幫助。然後我想這只是我的後續問題，也許只是談論您投資組合中其他一些較長週期的部分。所以我在想 SWEP、Belvac 和 MAAG，今年這些企業的成長指導中包含什麼樣的期望？現在開始談論 2025 年以及這些企業可以做什麼是否還為時過早？

Look, I think that SWEP (inaudible) heat exchange or heat pump debate, I think has been beaten to death at this point. Everybody got very excited. The problem with having exposure to subsidize products. It's great when they're subsidized. It's not so great when they're not subsidized. So we're just going to have to deal with that. So if I take that away and I looked at SWEP over time, we actually don't think that, that is a cyclical long-cycle business. We think that, that's just a component parts business that just went through a kind of an adoption rate on heat pumps through legislation in Europe that we're not going to apologize for when the market was there, you seize the market.

聽著，我認為關於SWEP（聽不清楚）熱交換還是熱泵的爭論，我認為在這一點上已經被殺死了。大家都非常興奮。接觸補助產品的問題。當他們得到補貼時真是太好了。當他們沒有補貼時，情況就不太好了。所以我們只需要處理這個問題。因此，如果我去掉這一點，並隨著時間的推移觀察舒瑞普，我們實際上並不認為這是一個週期性的長週期業務。我們認為，這只是一個零件業務，剛剛通過歐洲立法經歷了熱泵的採用率，當市場存在時，我們不會為此道歉，你抓住了市場。

So I think once we get through this whole period, which hopefully knock wood will be at the end of Q3 that, that would just go back to being a non-cyclical asset going forward from here. Maag is a little bit more CapEx driven. Belvac is a little bit more CapEx driven. I will say that Maag is likely to be less cyclical than it's been in the past because I think the management team. Has done a really good job opening up the vectors in terms of what we sell, and there's actually a pretty large installed spare parts business there. Belvac is always going to be cyclical, but that's not a tail that's going to wag the dog. It's just not that big in our portfolio.

因此，我認為，一旦我們度過了整個時期（希望在第三季末出現敲擊聲），從這裡開始，它就會恢復為非週期性資產。 Maag 更受資本支出驅動。 Belvac 更受資本支出驅動。我想說，馬格的周期性可能比過去小，因為我認為管理團隊。在我們銷售的產品方面，在開放載體方面做得非常好，而且那裡實際上有相當大的已安裝備件業務。貝爾瓦克總是週期性的，但這不是一條會搖狗的尾巴。它只是我們的投資組合中沒有那麼大。

Great. Super helpful. Thank you.

偉大的。超有幫助。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We'll hear now from Mike Halloran with Baird.

我們現在將聽取麥克·哈洛蘭和貝爾德的演講。

Good morning, everyone. Just one for me. I cover two part of those. So if you think about the short-cycle trends you talked about some choppiness in the order patterns through the quarter. Maybe just talk about how you're thinking about the short-cycle trends. And then secondarily, if there are any leading indicators in those and end markets or product categories where you're seeing signs of concern or inversely, conversely, excuse me, signs of acceleration. Thanks

大家早安。只給我一個。我將介紹其中的兩部分。因此，如果您考慮短週期趨勢，您就會談到整個季度訂單模式的一些波動。也許只是談談您如何看待短週期趨勢。其次，如果在這些終端市場或產品類別中存在任何領先指標，您會看到令人擔憂的跡象，或者相反，請原諒，加速的跡象。謝謝

I don't want to march through the entire portfolio. It's just been choppy all year in short cycle. I think distribution is still digesting higher interest costs. The GDP print today was good, at least for North America, it's not been great out of Europe for a period of time. So there's a lot of uncertainty of kind of what the catalyst is for demand. So I think I mentioned in my earlier comments, like intra-quarter volatility of order rates we have like heart attacks around here week-over-week because it kind of flexes all over the place. But when you let the tide go out we're still growing the top line. I think that the areas that we know that are in cyclical down trends, we've got a handle on that.

我不想遍歷整個投資組合。整個一年都在短週期內波動。我認為發行仍在消化較高的利息成本。今天的GDP數據不錯，至少對於北美來說是這樣，歐洲在一段時間內表現不佳。因此，需求的催化劑存在著很大的不確定性。因此，我想我在之前的評論中提到過，就像訂單率的季度內波動一樣，我們每週都會出現心臟病發作，因為它到處都會彎曲。但當你讓潮流退去時，我們的收入仍在成長。我認為，我們知道處於週期性下降趨勢的領域，我們已經掌握了這一點。

I'd like to see fueling do better. I think that, that's been a little bit slower than we would have expected through the first half. We're going to keep a close eye on order rates there going into the second half. And our expectation is because we've got easier comps in the second half that by and large, the hurdle rate for orders is in Herculean.

我希望看到加油做得更好。我認為，這比我們上半年的預期要慢一些。我們將密切關注下半年的訂單率。我們的期望是，因為下半年我們的競爭更加容易，總的來說，訂單的最低門檻是巨大的。

It does. Thanks, Richard.

確實如此。謝謝，理查。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We'll go now to Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

我們現在請來加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Rich, I really like seeing this pivot into a higher up the technology curve, these critical components that are typically a lower cost of the project. And I know you're not going to kind of reveal exactly the areas that you're moving into. But you characterize ESG divestiture as pivoting away from capital goods. And then Joe, your answer to Joe's question, you gave some color there, but there are still lots of capital goods exposures in the portfolio. So where do you draw the line? What's the timing? You've made lots of margin improvements. You said that was kind of the gating factor. But where do you draw the line? And how much change can the organization take at just a given point in time?

謝謝。大家早安。 Rich，我真的很喜歡看到這種轉向更高的技術曲線，這些關鍵組件通常是專案成本較低的。我知道你不會透露你要進入的具體領域。但您將 ESG 剝離描述為遠離資本貨物。然後喬，你對喬問題的回答，你在那裡給了一些顏色，但投資組合中仍然有很多資本貨物敞口。那麼你在哪裡劃清界線呢？時間是什麼時候？您已經取得了許多利潤改善。你說這是一種限制因素。但你在哪裡劃清界線呢？組織在特定時間點可以進行多少變革？

There's nothing that we have to sell, Deane, and we didn't have to sell ESG either, right? And if I go and look on return on invested capital in ESG it's been great, right? Because the the earnings improvement has been terrific. It's an older asset. So you got to always be careful with ROIC because its asset base has been depreciated over a long period of time. So it gets a little bit flatter there.

Deane，我們沒有什麼必須出售的，我們也不必出售 ESG，對嗎？如果我去看看 ESG 的投資資本報酬率，那就太好了，對吧？因為獲利的改善非常顯著。這是一項較舊的資產。因此，您必須始終小心投資回報率，因為其資產基礎已經在很長一段時間內貶值。所以那裡變得有點平坦。

But I don't want to repeat myself, but we spend an inordinate amount of time here doing our own sum of parts on every piece of this portfolio. So we've got a clear understanding at what hurdle rates are for monetization. But we're not going to win to address the portfolio and sell things at below intrinsic value, just to make the gross margin go up by 50 basis points.

但我不想重複自己，但我們在這裡花了大量的時間，對這個投資組合的每個部分進行我們自己的總和。因此，我們對貨幣化的最低門檻有了清楚的了解。但我們不會為了解決投資組合問題而以低於內在價值的價格出售產品，只是為了使毛利率上升 50 個基點。

So, I can't tell you about the timing. We'll just going to have to be patient. And what we see when we go over there, I think that the important issue to understand is that we've got optionality in terms of firepower that a lot of people don't have, meaning that we can lever up on an M&A front and then delever by monetization. That's not what we did here. I think we were just more opportunistic, but that is something that's an arrow in our quiver going forward.

所以，我不能告訴你具體時間。我們必須要有耐心。當我們去那裡時，我們看到的是，我認為需要理解的重要問題是，我們在火力方面擁有很多人沒有的選擇權，這意味著我們可以在併購方面發揮槓桿作用，然後透過貨幣化去槓桿。這不是我們在這裡所做的。我認為我們只是更有機會主義，但這是我們前進的箭袋。

That's really helpful. Thank you for that context. And then just a question for Brad. There's an expectation of working capital improvements in the second half. Can you give us some color there or any specifics? And then what should we be thinking about buybacks for the second half?

這真的很有幫助。謝謝你的背景。然後問布拉德一個問題。預計下半年營運資金將有所改善。您能給我們一些顏色或任何細節嗎？那麼下半年的回購我們該考慮什麼呢？

Well, I think, Rich, I take the second part of that question first. I think Rich already answered that in a sense that our priority is around capital deployment to M&A, especially as we move here into the second half with market conditions of available assets that we see. So I think that's a positive thing for us as we move through the year. In terms of the trajectory on working capital and cash flow,

好吧，我想，里奇，我先回答這個問題的第二部分。我認為里奇已經回答了，從某種意義上說，我們的首要任務是圍繞併購的資本部署，特別是當我們進入下半年並看到可用資產的市場狀況時。所以我認為這對我們今年來說是一件積極的事情。就營運資金和現金流的軌跡而言，

I mean really, it's no different than last year when you think about it. I mean we're on pace with the prior year. We have good line of sight in terms of what we need to do in the back half around inventory and receivables, and it's all highly achievable in the same pattern that we saw last year. So we have pretty good confidence. We have confidence in the 13% to 15% at this stage.

我的意思是，真的，仔細想想，這與去年沒有什麼不同。我的意思是我們與前一年保持同步。我們對於後半段需要圍繞庫存和應收帳款做的事情有良好的視野，並且按照我們去年看到的相同模式，這一切都是可以實現的。所以我們有很大的信心。現階段我們對13%到15%有信心。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And we'll take our final question today from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

今天我們將回答沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科 (Nigel Coe) 提出的最後一個問題。

Good morning. Tom, Thanks for taking me in guys. Look, I know there's been a lot of questions on the cryogenic kind of strategy. But the Marshall Excelsior deal looks really interesting. And the 10 points of synergies that you called out, kind of got my attention. So maybe just Rich remind us, what sort of growth do you expect the market to kind of compound out for the next three years to five years. With this cluster of businesses, do you think you can gain share and outgrow that market? And maybe I don't know if you can tell us this, but what is the entry margin for the Marshall deal?

早安.湯姆，謝謝你接納我。聽著，我知道人們對低溫策略有許多疑問。但與 Marshall Excelsior 的交易看起來確實很有趣。你提出的 10 點綜效吸引了我的注意。因此，也許里奇提醒我們，您預計市場在未來三到五年內會出現什麼樣的複合成長。您認為透過這項業務集群，您能夠獲得份額並超越該市場嗎？也許我不知道你是否可以告訴我們這一點，但馬歇爾交易的進入利潤是多少？

Okay. Well, I don't have to remind you about the growth rate, because I don't think we ever gave you one.

好的。好吧，我不必提醒您有關成長率的事情，因為我認為我們從未給過您成長率。

Look, we're going to give you may have missed it at the beginning, I think that because we built this platform, our intention is to resegment it into its own platform. And when we do that, we're going to give you a presentation of long-term growth outlook and everything else. I can tell you that the profile of what we've been buying has been around 20% margin – and I think then between synergy value and accelerated growth, we think within a 24-month period, we can get it to 25% EBITDA margin. So that's kind of the economics behind it.

你看，我們一開始可能就錯過了，我認為因為我們建立了這個平台，我們的目的是將其重新劃分為自己的平台。當我們這樣做時，我們將向您介紹長期成長前景和其他一切。我可以告訴你，我們一直在購買的產品的利潤率約為 20%，我認為，在協同價值和加速成長之間，我們認為在 24 個月內，我們可以將其提高到 25% EBITDA 利潤率。這就是背後的經濟學原理。

Yes. Sorry, I missed the first part of the call, so I missed that detail. And the 10 points, would that be primarily cost or is it exclusively cost? Or is there some ready synergy as well?

是的。抱歉，我錯過了通話的第一部分，所以我錯過了那個細節。這 10 點主要是成本還是完全是成本？或者是否也有一些現成的協同作用？

No revenue synergy. It's all we know you've seen us make the presentations before about back-office consolidation and all those things that we have. We've got a whole system that's in place. In this particular case. We actually think we've got some backward integration footprint opportunity here from our legacy businesses. So those are really the two big pieces Okay.

沒有所得協同效應。這就是我們所知道的，您之前已經看到我們做過有關後台整合和我們擁有的所有東西的演示。我們已經有一整套到位的系統。在這個特殊情況下。事實上，我們認為我們從我們的傳統業務中獲得了一些向後整合的機會。所以這確實是兩大塊，好吧。

Okay. Thanks, Rich. And then just for Brad, just some details on the ESG. So the discontinuation, is that on a go-forward basis, so that will be a second half impact? Or do you have to go back and discontinue for the first half as well? And then is it – do you have any sense yet on the tax leakage on the deal?

好的。謝謝，里奇。接下來是 Brad，請介紹一些有關 ESG 的詳細資訊。那麼，停產是在未來的基礎上進行的嗎？或者你必須回去並停止上半年的工作嗎？那麼，您對這筆交易的稅務洩漏有任何了解嗎？

Yes. So as it relates to discontinued ops, it would be all prior periods presented. So we really restate everything. Once we get to a point in time here later in the third quarter, we'll be taking a hard look at that and they probably dropped at that point in time, and you'll see all the restatements filed in advance. So we have that data in advance. And on tax leakage, you should just assume a normalized U.S. type of tax rate, 21% or so in the leakage.

是的。因此，由於它涉及已停止的運營，因此將顯示所有先前的期間。所以我們確實重申了一切。一旦我們到達第三季晚些時候的某個時間點，我們將仔細研究這一點，他們可能會在那個時間點下降，你會看到所有提前提交的重述。所以我們提前有了這些數據。關於稅收洩漏，您應該假設美國的標準化稅率，洩漏率為 21% 左右。

Great. Okay, thanks.

偉大的。好的，謝謝。

It's very possible that, that cash tax is unlike De-Sta-Co goes out this year. So we're looking at that timing as well.

很有可能，現金稅與今年推出的 De-Sta-Co 不同。所以我們也在考慮這個時機。

Okay. But that wouldn't be in your guide, right, for the free cash flow, that would be

好的。但這不會出現在你的指南中，對吧，對於自由現金流來說，那就是

No, we'll handle the same way we handle the De-Sta-Co by adjusting free cash flow.

不，我們將以與處理 De-Sta-Co 相同的方式透過調整自由現金流來處理。

Great. Okay. Thanks, Brad.

偉大的。好的。謝謝，布拉德。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you, everyone. That concludes our question-and-answer period and Dover's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect your lines at this time, and everyone, have a wonderful day.

謝謝大家。我們的問答環節和多佛 2024 年第二季財報電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，祝大家有美好的一天。