道爾 (DOV) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Dover's fourth quarter and full-ear 2024 earnings conference call. Speaking today are Richard Tobin, President and Chief Executive Officer; Brad Cerepak, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jack Dickens, Vice President, Investor Relations. Also present today is Chris Winker, Dover's Segment Chief Financial Officer, who will succeed Mr. Cerepak upon his retirement at the end of the month.

早上好，歡迎參加 Dover 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天發言的是總裁兼執行長理查德‧托賓 (Richard Tobin)； Brad Cerepak，資深副總裁兼財務長；以及投資者關係副總裁傑克狄更斯（Jack Dickens）。今天出席會議的還有 Dover 分部財務長 Chris Winker，他將在本月底 Cerepak 先生退休後接替他的職位。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded, and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, please disconnect at this time. Thank you.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，女士們，先生們，本次電話會議正在錄音，您的參與即表示同意我們錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，請立即斷開連線。謝謝。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jack Dickens. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將電話轉給傑克狄更斯先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Margo. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. An audio version of this call will be available on our website through February 20, and a replay link of the webcast will be archived for 90 days. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ from those statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，瑪戈。大家早安，感謝大家參加我們的電話會議。本次電話會議的音訊版本將在我們的網站上提供至 2 月 20 日，網路直播的重播連結將存檔 90 天。我們今天的評論將包括基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。由於一系列風險和不確定因素，實際結果和事件可能與這些聲明不同，這些風險和不確定因素已在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了討論。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rich.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給里奇。

Thanks, Jack. Good morning, everyone. Let's start on page 3. Overall, we are encouraged by the fourth quarter. Top-line performance was broad-based with four out of five segments posting positive organic growth on solid underlying demand across the portfolio. Bookings were up 7% organically in the quarter, driven by robust order rates in our secular growth exposed markets as well as positive inflection in several end markets that had tough comps during the year. Our booking strength validates our previous demand outlook for 2025.

謝謝，傑克。大家早安。讓我們從第 3 頁開始。整體而言，我們對第四季的表現感到鼓舞。營收表現廣泛，由於整個投資組合的潛在需求強勁，五個分部中有四個實現了正有機成長。本季訂單量有機成長 7%，這得益於我們長期成長市場的強勁訂單率，以及年內業績不佳的幾個終端市場的積極拐點。我們的預訂實力驗證了我們先前對 2025 年的需求預測。

Segment margin performance for the quarter was solid at 22.2%, up 60 basis points over the prior year. We are quite encouraged by the product mix impact and prior-period fixed cost restructuring on segment margins during the quarter. We expect this to be a precursor of the strong incremental margin performance that we expect in 2025. Excluding the $0.25 of tax reorganization benefit to our effective tax rate in the fourth quarter of the prior year, Q4 adjusted EPS grew 14% in the quarter and was up 8% for the full year.

本季分部利潤率表現穩健，達 22.2%，較上年同期成長 60 個基點。我們對本季產品結構影響和前期固定成本重組對分部利潤率的影響感到非常鼓舞。我們預計，這將成為 2025 年強勁增量利潤表現的前兆。不計入去年同期第四季 0.25 美元的稅務重組收益對有效稅率的影響，第四季調整後每股收益成長 14%，全年成長 8%。

Our operational results were complemented by our ongoing portfolio actions. We recently closed two bolt-on acquisitions within our high-priority Pumps and Process Solutions segment, and our acquisition pipeline remains robust. We ended the year with a significant gas position that provides us flexibility as we pursue value-creating capital deployment to further expand our businesses in high-growth, high-margin priority platforms through organic investment and acquisitions.

我們正在進行的投資組合行動補充了我們的營運績效。我們最近在高優先級的泵浦和製程解決方案部門內完成了兩項附加收購，並且我們的收購管道仍然強勁。我們在年底時擁有重要的天然氣業務，這為我們提供了靈活性，因為我們追求創造價值的資本部署，可以透過有機投資和收購進一步擴展我們在高成長、高利潤優先平台上的業務。

We are optimistic about 2025. Underlying demand strength has continued across the portfolio into January. We have significant runway for margin improvement through organic growth, positive mix benefits, and numerous cost and performance levers. We have high confidence in Dover's attractive end market exposures, flexible business model, and proven execution playbook. With this backdrop, we are poised to deliver double-digit EPS growth in 2025 through a combination of accretive top-line growth, margin improvement, and value-creating capital allocation.

我們對2025年充滿樂觀。1 月份，整個投資組合的潛在需求仍然強勁。透過自然成長、正面的組合效益以及眾多成本和績效槓桿，我們擁有顯著的利潤率提升空間。我們對 Dover 具有吸引力的終端市場曝光度、靈活的商業模式和經過驗證的執行策略充滿信心。在此背景下，我們準備好透過增加營收、提高利潤率和創造價值的資本配置等方式，在 2025 年實現兩位數的每股盈餘成長。

Let's skip to slide 5. Engineered Products was up 2% organically in the quarter on volume growth in vehicle service and fluid dispensing. Aerospace and Defense was lower in the period due to shipment timing but still posted a record year on growing global demand for signal intelligence and electronic warfare solutions. Clean Energy and Fueling was up 8% organically in the quarter, led by robust order rates and shipments within cryogenic and clean energy components as well as solid volume growth in retail fueling equipment.

我們跳到第 5 張投影片。由於汽車服務和液體分配銷量的成長，工程產品本季有機成長了 2%。由於出貨時間原因，航空航太和國防業務在此期間表現較低，但由於全球對信號情報和電子戰解決方案的需求不斷增長，今年仍創下了歷史新高。清潔能源和燃料業務本季有機成長 8%，主要得益於低溫和清潔能源零件的訂單率和出貨量強勁成長，以及零售加油設備銷售穩定成長。

Our North American above-ground fueling business is methodically building back the volumes from peak EMV cycle from several years ago. Importantly, there was notable growth inflection in mix-accretive vehicle wash and below-ground retail fueling in the quarter, which had faced tough market conditions over the last two years.

我們的北美地面加油業務正在有條不紊地恢復幾年前 EMV 週期的峰值加油量。重要的是，混合加值車輛清洗和地下零售加油產業在本季出現了明顯的成長轉折點，而過去兩年這些產業面臨嚴峻的市場環境。

Margin was up 200 basis points in the quarter on positive volume leverage, attractive mix in operational execution. We expect these trends to continue to drive margins higher in 2025. Imaging and Identification posted another solid quarter with growth in core market encoding printers, consumables, services, and aftermarket parts. Margin performance was robust as management actions on cost to serve and structural cost controls continue to drive incremental margins.

由於正的銷售槓桿和富有吸引力的營運執行組合，本季利潤率上升了 200 個基點。我們預計這些趨勢將在 2025 年繼續推動利潤率上升。影像和識別業務又取得了強勁的季度業績，核心市場編碼印表機、耗材、服務和售後零件均實現成長。由於管理部門在服務成本和結構性成本控制方面的措施持續推動利潤率上升，利潤率表現強勁。

Pumps and Process Solutions is up 3% organically and robust shipments in single-use biopharma components and thermal connectors, both of which posted year-over-year bookings growth in excess of 100% in the quarter. Precision Components and Industrial pumps have had solid results as well, as forecasted the long-cycle polymer processing equipment was down year over year in the period but was flat sequentially. Segment revenue mix drove 230 basis points of margin improvement on excellent production performance on volume growth in biopharma and thermal and margin mix benefits from the FW Murphy acquisition.

泵浦和製程解決方案業務有機成長 3%，一次性生物製藥組件和熱連接器的出貨量強勁，兩者本季的訂單量年均成長超過 100%。精密零件和工業泵浦的業績也表現穩健，正如預測的那樣，長週期聚合物加工設備在本季度同比下降，但環比持平。由於生物製藥和熱能業務的產量成長、生產表現優異以及收購 FW Murphy 帶來的利潤組合效益，分部收入組合推動利潤率提高 230 個基點。

Revenue was down in the quarter and climate sustainability technologies and expected declines in European heat exchanges and beverage making can-making equipment, which more than offset the record quarterly volume in US CO2 refrigeration systems and growth in heat exchanges in the US and Asia. Our shipments of heat exchanges for heat pumps in Europe did improve sequentially in the quarter, a trend we expect to accelerate in the back half of 2025 as the end market recovers. Organic bookings were up 16% in the quarter, with positive total momentum across each operating business with particular strength in CO2 systems.

本季收入下降，氣候永續技術和歐洲熱交換器和飲料製罐設備的預期下降，抵消了美國二氧化碳冷卻系統的季度創紀錄銷售以及美國和亞洲熱交換器的成長。我們在歐洲熱泵熱交換器的出貨量在本季確實有所改善，隨著終端市場的復甦，我們預計這一趨勢將在 2025 年下半年加速。本季有機預訂量成長 16%，各營運業務整體呈現正面勢頭，尤其在二氧化碳系統方面表現強勁。

I'll pass it to Brad here.

我會把它傳給布拉德。

Thanks, Rich. Good morning, everyone. Let's go to our cash flow statement on slide 6. Adjusting for taxes paid on the gains on dispositions, which are non-operational in nature, our free cash flow was $429 million in the quarter or 22% of revenue. Our fourth quarter was our highest cash flow quarter of the year, in line with historical trends.

謝謝，里奇。大家早安。讓我們來看看第 6 張投影片上的現金流量表。調整非經營性處置收益所支付的稅款後，我們本季的自由現金流為 4.29 億美元，佔營收的 22%。我們的第四季是今年現金流最高的一個季度，與歷史趨勢一致。

We are pleased with our full-year adjusted free cash flow generation, which came in at 13.5% of revenue, within our guidance range, despite carrying large accounts receivable balances at the year end. That will be a credit to early 2025 cash generation. Our guidance for 2025 free cash flow is 14% to 16% of revenue on strong conversion of operating cash flow. We are forecasting slightly higher CapEx in 2025 on several growth investments. With that, I'll turn it back to Rich.

我們對全年調整後的自由現金流感到滿意，儘管年末應收帳款餘額較大，但調整後的自由現金流仍佔收入的 13.5%，處於我們的預期範圍內。這將歸功於 2025 年初的現金創造。我們對 2025 年自由現金流的預期是，在經營現金流強勁轉換的情況下，自由現金流將佔營收的 14% 至 16%。我們預測 2025 年幾項成長投資的資本支出將略有增加。說完這些，我就把話題轉回給 Rich。

Thanks. I'm on slide 7. Here, we provide a little more detail on the bookings momentum in the fourth quarter. Q4 marked our fifth consecutive quarter of positive year-over-year bookings growth, posting a book-to-bill above 1. As shown in the segment detail on the right, the bookings rates were broad based with particular strength in our secular growth exposed markets, providing a strong foundation as we move into 2025.

謝謝。我在第 7 張投影片。這裡，我們提供了有關第四季度預訂量成長勢頭的更多詳細資訊。第四季是我們連續第五個季度實現訂單量年增，訂單出貨比超過 1。如右側細分市場詳情所示，預訂率基礎廣泛，且在我們長期成長的市場中尤其強勁，為我們邁向 2025 年奠定了堅實的基礎。

Slide 8 highlights several end markets that were driving our consolidated organic growth forecast. Between end market data, our customer forecast, and our own booking rates, we are encouraged with the outlook in the broader industrial gas complex within clean energy and precision components, single-use biopharma components, CO2 refrigeration systems, and inputs into liquid cooling applications of data centers, which include our connectors as well as heat exchangers.

幻燈片 8 重點介紹了推動我們合併有機成長預測的幾個終端市場。透過終端市場數據、客戶預測和我們自己的預訂率，我們對清潔能源和精密組件、一次性生物製藥組件、二氧化碳製冷系統和液體冷卻應用投入等更廣泛的工業氣體綜合體的前景感到鼓舞數據中心，其中包括我們的連接器以及熱交換器。

We have made significant organic and inorganic investment behind these end markets, which will continue to prioritize into 2025. In aggregate, these markets now account for 20% of our portfolio and drive attractive margin accretion on expected double-digit growth rates. Moving to slide 9, we expect Engineered Products to grow low single digits organically on sustained strong orders and shipments within Aerospace and Defense, which should be levered to the second half of the year due to the timing of government programs.

我們在這些終端市場進行了大量有機和無機投資，並將在 2025 年繼續優先考慮這些市場。總體而言，這些市場目前占我們投資組合的20%，並在預期兩位數的成長率下推動利潤率實現可觀的成長。轉到幻燈片9，我們預計工程產品將實現低個位數有機增長，得益於航空航天和國防領域持續強勁的訂單和出貨量，而由於政府計劃的時機，這一增長應會延續到今年下半年。

With the divestitures of DESTACO and Environmental Service Solutions Group in 2024, our Engineered Products segment now accounts for roughly 15% of our total portfolio, down 25% in the prior year. We are optimistic about the growth outlook in clean energy and fueling, which should return to positive volume growth due to strength in clean energy components, fluid transport, and above-ground fueling.

隨著 2024 年 DESTACO 和環境服務解決方案集團的剝離，我們的工程產品部門現在約占我們總投資組合的 15%，比前一年下降了 25%。我們對清潔能源和燃料的成長前景持樂觀態度，由於清潔能源組件、流體運輸和地面燃料的強勁增長，清潔能源和燃料的銷售應會恢復正增長。

We expect this segment to be among the leaders in margin accretion in 2025 on volume leverage, positive mix from below ground fueling. Additionally, we can expect additional carryover of multi-year restructuring actions and acquisition integration benefits, which will primarily accrue in the second half of the year.

我們預計，憑藉產量槓桿和地下加油的積極組合，該部門將在 2025 年成為利潤成長的領導者之一。此外，我們還可以預期多年重組行動和收購整合收益的額外結轉，這些收益將主要在下半年累積。

We expect Imaging and ID to continue its long-term steady growth trajectory given its significant reoccurring revenue based on solid demand profile across all geographies. Management has done yeoman's work to improve the margin here through productivity and structural cost controls, and we believe there are multiple years ahead of continued margin accretion.

我們預計，鑑於所有地區穩固的需求狀況，影像和 ID 業務將擁有可觀的經常性收入，將繼續保持長期穩定的成長軌跡。管理層已付出大量工作來透過提高生產力和結構性成本控制來提高利潤率，我們相信未來幾年利潤率還將繼續增長。

Underlying demand trends across Pumps and Process Solutions remain solid. Shipments of single-use biopharma components should continue their double-digit growth rate driven by production growth in blockbuster drugs and the emergence of novel technologies such as cell and gene therapies and the continued secular shift towards single-use manufacturing.

泵浦和製程解決方案的潛在需求趨勢依然穩固。受重磅藥物產量增長、細胞和基因療法等新技術的出現以及向一次性製造持續長期轉變的推動，一次性生物製藥部件的出貨量應能繼續保持兩位數的增長率。

The outlook for thermal connectors for liquid cooling data centers is robust. Our preemptive capacity expansion has allowed us to maintain industry-best lead times in what has turned out to be a short cycle business. Our Precision Components business is directly levered to energy complex investments, so we are quite interested to see how that market plays out in 2025.

液體冷卻資料中心的熱連接器前景光明。我們先發制人的產能擴張讓我們在短週期業務中維持了業界最佳的交貨時間。我們的精密組件業務直接與能源綜合體投資相關，因此我們非常有興趣了解該市場在 2025 年的發展。

Finally, climate and sustainability technology should recover well as difficult comps roll off in heat exchanges and beverage can making with the recent launch of our high-capacity platform and CO2 refrigeration systems. We have the broadest product offering in the industry. We are currently taking orders well into the second half of 2025 and should continue to grow at double-digit rate due to the broad-based adoption among national retailers.

最後，隨著我們最近推出的高容量平台和二氧化碳冷凍系統，熱交換和飲料罐製造中難度較高的項目得以順利完成，氣候和永續性技術也應能得到良好的恢復。我們提供業界最廣泛的產品。我們目前正在接受 2025 年下半年的訂單，由於全國零售商的廣泛採用，訂單量應會繼續以兩位數的速度增長。

Heat Exchanger is expected to grow as European heat home channel inventories have been largely depleted. We are forecasting sustained growth in North America at heat exchangers. We have completed a capacity expansion for large-format production, driven in part by liquid cooling applications in data centers.

由於歐洲熱交換器渠道庫存已基本耗盡，預計熱交換器將會成長。我們預測北美熱交換器市場將持續成長。我們已經完成了大幅面生產的產能擴張，部分原因是資料中心的液體冷卻應用。

Let me finish up on slide 10. Our guidance this year is a bit unique since we provided preliminary outlook for '25 during last quarter's earnings release, which we felt was necessary, given the significant portfolio moves completed in Q4. Our 2025 guidance is in line, that preliminary outlook from a quarter ago in terms of organic revenue and EPS growth with the underlying building blocks intact.

讓我完成第 10 張投影片。我們今年的指引有點獨特，因為我們在上個季度的收益發布中提供了對 25 年的初步展望，我們認為這是必要的，因為第四季度完成了重大的投資組合變動。我們對 2025 年的預期與一個季度前的初步展望一致，即有機收入和每股盈餘成長以及基本構件完好無損。

There's only been one noteworthy change from last quarter, which is heightened foreign exchange translation from the strengthening US dollar. While this incremental headwind, which is by no means unique to Dover, we are confident in holding our full-year guide due to the positive and broad-based bookings momentum we had during the year. So pretty much, we're going to eat everything that we saw when we ran from October to January in terms of FX, which is not a little bit.

與上一季相比只有一個值得注意的變化，那就是美元走強導致外匯兌換率上升。雖然這種漸進式逆風並非多佛獨有，但由於我們今年的預訂勢頭積極且廣泛，我們有信心維持全年預期。所以基本上，我們將吞噬從 10 月到 1 月期間看到的所有 FX，這不是一點點。

We entered 2025 in an advantaged cash position. Our preference is to deploy capital towards organic growth investments and our inorganic growth for the pipeline, which has improved in both quantity and quality opportunities over the last several months. Rest assured, we will proceed with the capital discipline that we have demonstrated in the past.

進入2025年，我們將擁有有利的現金狀況。我們傾向於將資本部署到有機成長投資和無機成長管道中，過去幾個月來，通路的數量和品質都有所改善。請放心，我們將繼續秉承過去所展現的基本紀律。

Finally, before we move to Q&A, I'd like to take a moment to recognize and congratulate Brad on his retirement. Since joining Dover over 15 years ago, he has been an instrumental, strategic, and financial leader who has helped transform Dover to our current operating structure today. I'm sure Brad couldn't think of a better sendoff than to spend his last days preparing for this earnings call. On behalf of all of us, thank you, and we wish you all the best.

最後，在我們進入問答環節之前，我想花點時間來表彰並祝賀布拉德退休。自 15 年前加入 Dover 以來，他一直是一位重要的策略和財務領導者，幫助 Dover 轉變為我們今天的營運結構。我確信，布拉德想不出比在人生最後幾天為這次財報電話會議做準備更好的告別方式了。我代表我們所有人向您表示感謝，並祝您一切順利。

Thank you for that, Rich. Much appreciated. It's been absolutely a pleasure to work with you, the entire Dover team, our Board, and of course, the finance organization for so many years. Chris Wenker will take it from here, and I wish him the very best.

謝謝你，Rich。非常感謝。這麼多年來，能夠與您、整個 Dover 團隊、我們的董事會、當然還有金融機構合作，我感到非常榮幸。克里斯溫克 (Chris Wenker) 將接替他的位置，我祝他一切順利。

Okay. I think we can go to Q&A here, Jack.

好的。我想我們可以在這裡進行問答，傑克。

(Operator Instructions) Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

(操作員指示) 摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Hey, good morning. Brad, congrats, and thanks for all the help over the years. You've definitely seen a lot there, a lot of change, so congrats on the run. The slide last quarter talked about 40% conversion and $25 million of restructuring benefits. This slide says 40% plus. Are you still assuming the $25 million of restructuring benefits? And I don't know, there's a lot of up arrows on that margin slide. So just maybe help calibrate us a bit on the margin drivers and price cost?

嘿，早安。布拉德，恭喜你，感謝你多年來的幫助。你肯定已經看到了很多東西，很多變化，所以恭喜你。上個季度的幻燈片談到了 40% 的轉換率和 2500 萬美元的重組收益。這張投影片說的是40%以上。您還承擔2500萬美元的重組收益嗎？我不知道，那個邊緣幻燈片上有很多向上的箭頭。那或許可以幫助我們稍微調整一下利潤驅動因素和價格成本？

Sure. The restructuring benefit hasn't changed. As I mentioned last quarter, we'll -- we've got some more in the pipe. And when we do it, we'll give you the roll-forward benefit of it, which is not embedded into our forecast presently. The balance of it is mix. So if you look at the margin accretion that we saw in Q4, I think it's a pretty good precursor of what we can expect.

當然。重組收益未發生改變。正如我上個季度提到的那樣，我們還有更多的計劃。當我們這樣做時，我們會為您帶來滾動收益，目前尚未嵌入到我們的預測中。它的平衡是混合的。因此，如果您查看我們在第四季度看到的利潤率成長，我認為這是我們可以預期的一個相當好的先兆。

And then we'll see from there. Then it's just a question of kind of the volume that we see. So right now, we're going to stick to the 40%. I think -- I don't see that going up on a percentage basis. It will be more tied to are we underestimating the revenue growth potential into 2025. Bookings look great, but let's see. Let's get through a quarter or two.

然後我們就從那裡看到。那麼這只是我們看到的數量的問題。因此現在我們將堅持 40%。我認為——我不認為這個數字會以百分比形式上升。這與我們是否低估了 2025 年的營收成長潛力更為相關。預訂看起來很棒，但讓我們看看。讓我們度過一兩個季度吧。

Got it. And price cost, what do you guys assume for price in the year? And will that spread be positive?

知道了。還有價格成本，你們認為今年的價格是多少？這種傳播會產生正面影響嗎？

It will be positive, not a lot either way in terms of the benefit point 1.5 points. We'll see. It depends on the mix that we get, but it will be positive.

這將是正面的，但從 1.5 分的收益點來看，影響並不大。我們將會看到。這取決於我們得到的混合物，但它將是積極的。

Okay, great. Thanks a lot. Thanks again, Brad, congrats.

好的，太好了。多謝。再次感謝，布拉德，恭喜。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科（Nigel Coe），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks. Good morning. Brad, I'm sure you're going to get a lot of congratulations and all that. But you've been at Dover for a long time. You've been the one sort of constant for the last like 15 years. It's quite a moment here, so congratulations.

謝謝。早安.布拉德，我確信你會收到很多祝賀等等。但您在多佛已經待了很長時間了。在過去 15 年裡，你一直都是我心中不變的那個人。這是一個非常重要的時刻，值得祝賀。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

So Rich, you mentioned January. And whenever you mentioned sort of within the current period, there's talks of tension. I'm just curious if you think the tariffs or the potential tariffs is causing any sort of unusual behavior around the supply chain that you touch?

那麼 Rich，你提到了一月。無論何時你提到當前時期，都會有緊張局勢的討論。我只是好奇，您是否認為關稅或潛在關稅會導致您所接觸的供應鏈出現任何異常行為？

No, we don't see it. I mean, we're, generally speaking, a proximity manufacturer. So our backlogs are more influenced on the lead times of the individual products, which are kind of all over the place, between the short cycle and long cycle. But no, I don't -- we don't see any let's get in front of this because we think that there's going to be tariffs. We have a few businesses that are global in nature, but the vast majority of it is proximity.

不，我們沒有看到。我的意思是，一般來說，我們是一家近距離製造商。因此，我們的積壓訂單更受到單一產品的交貨時間的影響，這些產品的交貨時間在短週期和長週期之間到處都是。但不，我沒有看到任何讓我們領先於這一點的跡象，因為我們認為將會有關稅。我們的一些業務是全球性的，但絕大多數是鄰近性的。

Okay, okay. And then just a quick question on the margin outlook. You mentioned CEF is going to be the margin leader. I'm just curious if you could just maybe just -- if I could just ask if the 20% plus handle would be reasonable there just based on what we saw this quarter? And then similar being with DPPS just given the exit rate, will a [30%] handle be reasonable for this year?

好的，好的。然後我簡單問一下關於利潤前景的問題。您提到 CEF 將成為利潤領先者。我只是好奇，您是否可以——我是否可以問一下，根據我們本季度看到的情況，20% 以上的增長是否合理？然後與 DPPS 類似，考慮到退出率，今年的 [30%] 處理是否合理？

Look, I think that the absolute change in margin, we would expect in DCEF, okay? We are driving at the segment level in excess of 20%, all right? You may not get it every quarter depending on the cyclicality of it, but clearly at an exit rate in excess of 20%. On DPPS, it's all about the mix. So if we're undercalling biopharma, and we get better results there, clearly, they will mix up. But if Precision Components does better, it's a little bit dilutive, but it's still at 25% margin. So we'll take it all day long. So it's more a question of we get in terms of mix going from here.

看，我認為利潤的絕對變化是我們預期的 DCEF，好嗎？我們的細分市場規模超過 20%，好嗎？根據其周期性，您可能無法每個季度都獲得它，但退出率顯然會超過 20%。在 DPPS 上，一切都與混合有關。因此，如果我們低估生物製藥，並且在那裡取得更好的結果，顯然，他們就會混合在一起。但如果 Precision Components 表現更好，它的利潤率就會稍微稀釋一點，但仍能達到 25%。所以我們會花一整天時間。因此，這更多的是一個我們如何從混合角度進行的問題。

Okay, very nice. Thanks, Rich.

好的，非常好。謝謝，里奇。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

花旗集團的安迪‧卡普洛維茲 (Andy Kaplowitz)。

Good morning, everyone. Brad, thanks for all your help. Congrats. Rich, book-to-bill over one again in Q4. Are you thinking '25 is another year where all or most of your quarters could achieve book-to-bill at or over 1? And I know you're expecting an inflection in CO2 orders. It looks like you've got that, and you mentioned double-digit expected growth in that business is expected to continue. But given recurring other DCST businesses, at least in terms of orders, it seems like you expect DCST bookings momentum to continue. Maybe you can comment on that.

大家早安。布拉德，謝謝你的幫忙。恭喜。第四季度，訂單出貨比再次超過 1。您是否認為，25 年是您所有或大部分季度都能夠實現訂單出貨比達到或超過 1 的另一年？我知道您預計二氧化碳訂單將會變更。看起來你已經明白了，而且你提到該業務預計還將繼續保持兩位數的成長。但考慮到 DCST 的其他業務的反覆出現，至少在訂單方面，您似乎預計 DCST 的預訂勢頭將會持續下去。也許您可以對此發表評論。

Yes. I mean, I would expect, based on our growth rate, we'll hover around 1. I mean, I don't think we get all excited if it's 0.98 one quarter. But we should hover around 1 for the year, and then we'll make a call on Q4 as we exit. Yes, I mean, we did get some bookings in Q4 in CO2 systems. We've got a lot coming our way. So I would expect bookings to look good there, coupled with the fact maybe not in Q1, but as we go into Q2, we'll inflect positive bookings in heat exchanges. So that will help in terms of the fact.

是的。我的意思是，我預計，根據我們的成長率，我們將徘徊在 1 左右。我的意思是，如果某個季度的數字是 0.98，我想我們不會感到興奮。但我們今年的預期應該在 1 左右，然後我們會在退出時對第四季做出決定。是的，我的意思是，我們確實在第四季度在二氧化碳系統方面獲得了一些預訂。我們還有很多事情要做。因此，我預計那裡的預訂情況會很好，再加上也許在第一季不會出現這種情況，但隨著進入第二季度，我們將在熱交換中產生積極的預訂情況。就事實而言，這會有所幫助。

Got it. And then can you give us a little more color into how you think about earning -- earnings cadence through the year? It seems like we start out pretty slowly in terms of organic growth in Q1 given DCST and DEP could start slowly in terms of growth, but more color on Q1 on the trajectory for the rest of the year would be helpful.

知道了。然後，您能否向我們詳細介紹一下您對全年獲利節奏的看法？由於 DCST 和 DEP 的成長起步緩慢，似乎我們第一季的有機成長起步相當緩慢，但如果能更詳細地了解第一季以及今年剩餘時間的發展軌跡，將會很有幫助。

Yes. I mean, go back to -- now that we're beyond kind of all the COVID stuff, we'll go back to -- we'll start off a little slowly. We'll probably build a bunch of inventory in Q1, and we'll recognize those revenues in Q2 and Q3. And then Q4, like every other year, we'll decide on the outlook of '25 how we run production. But we'll make those decisions in the August-September timeframe. So yes, I mean, I think that -- I think quarter to quarter, we'll look okay. But I mean, it will be a ramp into Q2 and Q3.

是的。我的意思是，回到——現在我們已經超越了所有關於 COVID 的事情，我們將回到——我們將慢慢開始。我們可能會在第一季建立大量庫存，並在第二季和第三季確認這些收入。然後，在第四季度，像往年一樣，我們將根據 25 年的前景決定如何進行生產。但我們會在八月至九月期間做出這些決定。所以是的，我的意思是，我認為 - 我認為每個季度我們的情況都會很好。但我的意思是，這將是進入 Q2 和 Q3 的坡道。

Appreciate the color.

感謝色彩。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Hey, guys, good morning. And Brad, thanks so much. Wishing nothing but the best.

嘿，大家早安。非常感謝布拉德。別無所求，只希望一切順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Maybe let's just -- I'll just hone my question on DCST. Rich, maybe talk a little bit about like what you're seeing in that European heat pump market now expecting growth in 2025. I think you maybe mentioned inventories have also stabilized there. Just give us some color on what you're seeing there.

也許我們只是——我只是想細化一下關於 DCST 的問題。Rich，也許您可以稍微談談您所看到的歐洲熱泵市場目前預計到 2025 年將出現成長的情況。我想您可能提到過那裡的庫存也已經穩定下來。請告訴我們您在那裡看到了什麼。

Well, I mean the margin performance that you see for us in Q4 is us basically underproducing severely. So it was a willful attempt to force inventory clearing out of the channel. But having said that, orders inflected positively. Let's not get excited off of some pretty low levels. So I would say that we did our part to allow inventory to clear.

嗯，我的意思是，您在第四季度看到的我們的利潤表現基本上是我們的產量嚴重不足。因此，這是一種故意的嘗試，旨在強行清空渠道庫存。但話雖如此，訂單還是出現了正面變化。我們不要因為一些相當低的水平而興奮。所以我想說，我們已經盡了自己的責任來清理庫存。

And just sequentially, orders are coming up. It's probably still got a bad comp in Q1. But then from there, we would expect to ramp over the balance of the year what that ramp looks our best estimates right now. As you know, getting good data out of our own customers has been quite difficult, but we would expect I think that we've got a prudent outlook for it. And hopefully, it gets coincidentally better over the year. But what we're confident about is we took some direct action to allow inventory to clear in the back half of the year.

而訂單也陸續陸續增加。第一季的業績可能仍不理想。但從那時起，我們預計今年餘下時間的成長將達到我們目前的最佳估計。如您所知，從我們自己的客戶那裡獲取良好的數據非常困難，但我們希望我們對此有一個審慎的看法。希望今年的情況能夠有所改善。但我們有信心的是，我們採取了一些直接的行動，讓庫存在下半年清理乾淨。

Got it. That makes a lot of sense. So as you think about then kind of like the right starting point for margins for that segment, given that you got that big hit in the fourth quarter. How do you think about then the margin trajectory in 2025? It would seem like you should get some pretty good margin expansion in that business.

知道了。這很有道理。因此，考慮到您在第四季度受到了巨大打擊，那麼您可以想像這個部門利潤率的正確起點。那麼您認為 2025 年的利潤率走勢如何？看起來你應該能從這項業務中獲得相當不錯的利潤成長。

Yes. I mean once we lap Q1 -- Q1 is always a little bit messy because in traditional refrigeration equipment, it's not a heavy shipment month. We tend to build inventory there as opposed to shipping it. And as I said, swept on heat exchangers has probably got a tough comp there. Having said all that, that we are very pleased with the margin that we got -- the exit margin that we got on refrigeration. So that's what we're booking in for the balance of the year.

是的。我的意思是，一旦我們繞過第一季——第一季總是有點混亂，因為在傳統的冷凍設備中，這不是一個出貨量很大的月份。我們傾向於在那裡建立庫存而不是發貨。正如我所說的，掃掠式熱交換器可能已經遇到了困難。儘管如此，我們對所獲得的利潤——冷凍業務的退出利潤——感到非常滿意。這就是我們今年剩餘時間的預訂情況。

And to the extent we underproduced so severely in heat exchangers, we have negative fixed cost absorption there. In Q4, we'd expect that to get better over time. So net-net, if you just look through the downturn in heat exchanges with all the progress that we made on refrigeration, we would expect that we would be maybe not at record margins because I'd have to kind of triangulate for Belvac a little bit, but some very good margins in that segment if we were to benchmark it historically.

由於熱交換器產量嚴重不足，導致其固定成本吸收為負值。在第四季度，我們預計情況會隨著時間的推移而改善。因此，如果你只看熱交換的衰退和我們在製冷方面取得的所有進步，我們預計我們可能不會達到創紀錄的利潤率，因為我必須對 Belvac 進行一些三角測量但如果我們從歷史角度進行基準比較，那麼該領域的利潤率還是相當不錯的。

Great to hear. Thanks, guys.

很高興聽到這個消息。謝謝大家。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

瑞穗的布雷特‧林澤 (Brett Linzey)。

Thanks. Good morning, and best of luck to Brad.

謝謝。早上好，祝布拉德好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I wanted to come back to the bio orders, really strong. I guess, any detail in the nature of the applications you're winning? And any concentration, is there one to two customers? Is it fairly broad based? And then how should we think about that delivery schedule?

我想回到生物訂單，真的很強烈。我想，您能提供您贏得的申請的具體細節嗎？而且任何濃度都有一到兩位顧客嗎？它的基礎是否相當廣泛？那我們該如何考慮交貨時間表呢？

It is broad based. I mean, we cleared inventory in the back half -- or the front half of this year, and then you started orders, inflected, and I think it's more or less at the end of second quarter. We don't know a lot in terms of where it ends up because there's a big portion that's sell-through from our clients at the end of the day. But I think I would categorize it as -- we are a supplier to end-use production and that the inventory is cleared out of the system and that those units are operating now, and it's just pull through.

它具有廣泛的基礎。我的意思是，我們在今年下半年或上半年清理了庫存，然後你開始下訂單，我認為大概是在第二季末。我們不太清楚這些貨物最終會流向何處，因為最終很大一部分都是由我們的客戶賣出的。但我想我會將其歸類為——我們是最終用途生產的供應商，庫存已從系統中清除，並且這些單位現在正在運營，並且只是拉動。

It makes sense. And then just a follow up on the liquid cooling, very strong demand, again, obviously, with everything that's going on. But maybe talk about that specification process with those partners. And how large has the total addressable market for Dover grown over the last couple of years? And where do you think your share of that can run?

這是有道理的。然後繼續關注液體冷卻，顯然，隨著一切的發生，需求非常強勁。但也許可以與這些合作夥伴討論一下這個規範流程。過去幾年裡，多佛的總目標市場成長了多少？您認為您的份額可以歸於何處？

Well, it's grown significantly because it was a traditional product of ours that have been supplied into supercomputing applications. What the TAM is, is anybody's guess right now. If you go back and look at the transcript, I think that we made the right decision in terms of having the product available, and we made the right decision to build out the capacity in advance of the demand.

嗯，它有了顯著的成長，因為它是我們的一個傳統產品，已經供應到超級運算應用。TAM 是多少，現在誰也說不準。如果你回頭看成績單，我認為我們在提供產品方面做出了正確的決定，並且我們在需求之前做出了擴大產能的正確決定。

Because it has turned out what I would have thought to be a business that would have because of the build-out time for these data centers that you would know when the orders are coming. It's turned out to be a very short cycle business for us. So the data that we get on where the product is going, is almost at the last minute.

因為它已經變成了我所想像的業務，因為這些資料中心的建造時間讓你知道訂單何時到來。對我們來說這是一個週期非常短的業務。因此，我們幾乎都是在最後一刻才獲得有關產品去向的數據。

Now we've been a market share winner here because we've got the capacity installed to the detriment of some of the working capital, I would say, in the fourth quarter of this year, but I can't even give you TAM numbers. Quite frankly, I don't think anybody knows. We'll see how it plays out. But right now, super proud of the management team in terms of how they've managed an incredibly complex situation.

現在我們已經成為市場份額的贏家，因為我們已經安裝了產能，但會損害部分營運資本，我想說，在今年第四季度，但我什至不能給你 TAM 數字。坦白說，我認為沒人知道。我們將看看結果如何。但現在，我對管理團隊能夠處理如此複雜的局面感到非常自豪。

Appreciate the detail.

欣賞細節。

Michael Halloran, Baird.

麥可·哈洛倫，貝爾德。

Hey, good morning everyone. And congrats, Brad. So just another high-level question here. Just to make sure I understand the cadence through the year. And in answer to the earlier question, the thought process then if I think about typical earnings by quarter, relatively normal or a little subdued in the first, and then build it up in the back. But then related, are you basically assuming the underlying demand dynamics are relatively stable with current levels, not improving, not getting worse, but relatively stable in normal sequentials? Is that the thought process?

嘿，大家早安。恭喜你，布拉德。這只是另一個高級問題。只是為了確保我了解這一年的節奏。回答之前的問題，如果我考慮一下按季度計算的典型收益，那麼我的思考過程是，第一季的收益相對正常或略有下降，然後在後面逐漸增加。但隨後相關的是，您是否基本上假設潛在的需求動態在當前水準上相對穩定，沒有改善，也沒有變得更糟，而是在正常連續中相對穩定？這就是思考過程嗎？

Yes. I think the sequential should be relatively stable and typically from a calendarization point of view. So there's nothing -- and the mix benefit should be relatively stable. But when we're talking about the incremental growth on the roll forward, then you're going to get the most of the growth in Q2 and Q3.

是的。我認為順序應該相對穩定，並且通常是從日曆化的角度來看的。所以沒有什麼——混合效益應該相對穩定。但是，當我們談論未來的增量成長時，您將在第二季和第三季獲得最大成長。

So it doesn't leg down and then leg up. It kind of just sequentially rolls forward, the mix impact on the business should be relatively stable right? Because that's -- if you look at the order rates, that's what we're going to be shipping out of. And then the growth that we're getting, which we'll be producing in Q1 will be shipped out in Q2 and Q3. That's our estimates right now.

所以它不會先腿向下，再腿向上。它只是按順序向前滾動，對業務的組合影響應該相對穩定，對嗎？因為那是——如果你看一下訂單率，這就是我們要發貨的數量。然後，我們在第一季生產的成長將在第二季和第三季出貨。這是我們目前的估計。

Yes. That makes sense. And then just an update on the M&A side. Any change to what you're seeing from a backdrop, actionability, and the amount of content that might be in the market at some point?

是的。這很有道理。然後只是關於併購的最新消息。從背景、可操作性以及某個時候可能出現在市場上的內容數量來看，您看到的情況有什麼變化嗎？

Yes, lots of stuff coming. We're really interested to see what the spirits are out there and what -- we'd like to see a couple of transactions to get done. There's quite a few in the pipe to see at what -- how aggressive everybody is going to be at valuation. But those are the ones everybody knows about. We've also got a handful of very interesting proprietary deals that we're working on. So we'll see. I mean, we're very popular in multi-industrial world because of all the cash that we're sitting on. So we're seeing a lot. Time will tell about what multiples look like when we see a couple of transactions.

是的，很多東西即將到來。我們真的很想知道那裡有什麼精神，以及——我們希望看到一些交易能夠完成。有相當多的人正在關注——每個人的估值有多積極。但這些都是眾所周知的。我們還正在進行一些非常有趣的專有交易。我們拭目以待。我的意思是，由於我們擁有大量現金，我們在多工業世界中非常受歡迎。因此我們看到了很多。當我們看到幾筆交易時，時間會告訴我們倍數是什麼樣子。

Yes. And keep in mind that that cash on the balance sheet right now is not deployed in our forecast. It's generating nice interest income, so it doesn't burn a hole in our pocket, so to speak. And when you think about your models, just keep in mind that we're sticking to our $0.50 year-over-year concept around interest income until we deploy that capital. And then you'll see a shift between the interest line and the segment performance line as we do deal flow.

是的。請記住，目前資產負債表上的現金不在我們的預測範圍內。它產生了不錯的利息收入，所以可以說它不會花我們太多錢。當您考慮您的模型時，請記住，在我們部署該資本之前，我們將堅持每年 0.50 美元的利息收入概念。然後，當我們進行交易流程時，您會看到興趣線和分部績效線之間的轉變。

Thanks, guys. Helpful as always.

謝謝大家。一如既往的有幫助。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Brad, thanks for all the help. If we think about just the segment level, I want to start with clean energy and fueling. It seemed like you did see some very encouraging signs exiting the year in below ground and vehicle wash. And as we're thinking about the 2025 guidance, maybe help us understand kind of how much of the business now is that clean energy components piece, which has sort of come together fairly recently? And how does the growth there differ this year versus the more traditional parts of DCEF?

嗨，謝謝。早安.布拉德，謝謝你的幫忙。如果我們只考慮細分層面，我想從清潔能源和燃料開始。看起來你確實看到了今年在地下和車輛清洗方面出現的一些非常令人鼓舞的跡象。當我們思考 2025 年的指導方針時，也許可以幫助我們了解現在有多少業務是最近才形成的清潔能源組件部分？那麼今年那裡的成長與 DCEF 較為傳統的部分相比有何不同？

Okay. I'm going to have to go back and look, but I would think in terms of absolute profit, it is the largest contributor year over year, that segment. And that's a combination of restructuring benefits, growth, mix on growth and acquisitions that we had done in the prior period that actually calendarized at 12 months. Breaking it into pieces, I think that we'll let Jack take you through it, but we had -- in terms of the cryogenic component exposure, we are significantly larger than our nearest competitor.

好的。我必須回頭再看看，但我認為，就絕對利潤而言，該部分是同比最大的貢獻者。這是我們前期進行的重組收益、成長、成長組合和收購的結合，實際上是按 12 個月的日曆進行的。將其分解成幾個部分，我想我們會讓傑克向您介紹一下，但就低溫部件暴露而言，我們比最接近的競爭對手要大得多。

That's helpful. Thank you. And then secondly, on engineered products, there's been a lot of change in the business mix there. Aerospace and Defense, a big old -- waiting now within DEP. And maybe remind us of kind of the main exposures there because it looks like the volumes there were down in the fourth quarter but should grow this year as a whole in DEP. Maybe kind of remind us sort of what's moving around in that? And what's the visibility on that second-half improvement in the A&D shipments at DEP?

這很有幫助。謝謝。其次，工程產品方面的業務組合發生了很大變化。航空航天和國防，一項古老的大工程——現在正在 DEP 內等待。也許可以提醒我們那裡的主要風險敞口，因為看起來那裡的交易量在第四季度有所下降，但今年全年 DEP 的交易量應該會增長。或許可以讓我們回想一下那裡面發生的事？那麼 DEP 下半年 A&D 出貨量改善的明顯程度如何？

The comp was bad in Q4, and that drove the commentary, which is timing of shipments, which I think that we had some pretty big shipments in Q4 of 2023. Having said that, the business is -- it's big as it's ever been in terms of its absolute size because we've actually been an acquirer in there. In terms of the calendarization, I'd have to go and work with Jack to see what 2025 looks like, but it is posted to grow year over year and having a positive margin mix benefit on that growth.

第四季度的業績表現不佳，這引發了人們對發貨時間的評論，我認為我們在 2023 年第四季度的發貨量相當大。話雖如此，但就其絕對規模而言，我們的業務比以往任何時候都要大，因為我們實際上是該業務的收購者。就日曆化而言，我必須與傑克一起去了解 2025 年的情況，但預計它會逐年增長，並且在這種增長中產生積極的利潤組合效益。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑夫‧斯普拉格 (Jeff Sprague)，垂直研究公司。

Hey, thanks. Good morning, everyone. And congrats, Brad, hate to admit it, but we go back to American Standard, Honeywell Allied.

嘿，謝謝。大家早安。恭喜你，布拉德，雖然不願意承認，但我們還是回到美國標準、霍尼韋爾聯合公司。

I know. A lot of years, Jeff.

我知道。很多年了，傑夫。

Almost to high school. Maybe a CFO question to start, just on kind of interest income. Thanks for that color. I assume rates are a little bit more favorable on sitting on cash than maybe you thought if you were thinking about the Fed. Maybe address that if that is, in fact, helpful. And then also, I just wanted to clarify, that guide that you're talking about is really only accounting for cash on hand. It doesn't look like you're giving yourself any credit for just a very solid free cash flow generation you're expecting in 2025.

快要上高中了。也許首先要問的是財務長的問題，只是關於利息收入的種類。謝謝你這個顏色。如果你考慮聯準會，我認為持有現金的利率會比你想像的更有利一些。如果這確實有幫助的話，也許可以解決這個問題。而且，我想澄清一下，您所說的指南實際上只是核算了現金。看起來你並沒有為自己預計 2025 年將產生的非常穩健的自由現金流而感到自豪。

No, I think it's inclusive. But we have uses of that cash flow like we normally do, right? So we'll have to see. It is volatile in the sense of how many rate cuts will there be next year. We model it out. And when I say we're sticking with our year-over-year that we guided back or gave insight into in the third quarter, it is all inclusive, for sure. But capital deployment will impact it, Jeff, and there's a lot of variables. So I think at this stage, give us a quarter or two to sort it out and see how deals actually flow through, and then we'll be able to give you more insight into it.

不，我認為它是包容性的。但我們可以像平常一樣使用這些現金流，對嗎？因此我們還需要拭目以待。從明年將會有多少次降息的意義上來說，它是不穩定的。我們將其建模出來。當我說我們堅持我們在第三季指引或給出見解的同比數據時，這肯定是包羅萬象的。但資本部署會對其產生影響，傑夫，而且有很多變數。因此我認為，在現階段，給我們一兩個季度的時間來理清這個問題，看看交易的實際進展情況，然後我們就能給你更多的見解。

Right, thanks. And then Rich, on DII, just maybe a little bit more color there, right? Demand trends are giving us a solid green pie, but we're growing low single digit. I'm guessing it's just sort of the fashion and fabric or whatever you call that piece of the business is really still lagging and holding back the base. Is that what's going on? Maybe a little more color there.

好的，謝謝。然後 Rich，關於 DII，可能那裡的色彩更豐富一些，對嗎？需求趨勢為我們帶來了穩固的綠色收益，但成長率卻低於個位數。我猜只是時尚和布料或無論你怎麼稱呼，這部分業務實際上仍然滯後並阻礙了基礎的發展。真是這樣嗎？那裡也許顏色更豐富一些。

It's just de minimis in terms of the revenue earnings at this point. So we're not modelling in any kind of snapback in terms of performance. Credit to the management team, the margin accretion has even lapped that business declining over the last three years through improving the profitability of the core Marketing and Coating business. As I mentioned in my comments, we've got some other efficiency programs, if you will, laid in for 2025 that should help the accretion there. So let's just call it. On the textile stuff, the bottoming has taken place, but it's de minimis now in terms of the earnings of the group.

從目前的收入來看，這只是微不足道的。因此，我們在性能方面沒有模擬任何類型的反彈。在管理團隊的推動下，透過提高核心行銷和塗料業務的獲利能力，利潤率的成長甚至彌補了過去三年業務的下滑。正如我在評論中提到的那樣，如果你願意的話，我們還為 2025 年制定了一些其他效率計劃，這應該有助於實現那裡的成長。所以我們就這麼稱呼它吧。就紡織業務而言，雖然觸底反彈，但對於集團的盈利而言，這已經是微不足道的了。

So the low single-digit growth just reflects then what's the normalization on the equipment side, after a little bit of a bump?

那麼，低個位數成長只是反映了設備方面在經歷一些波動之後的正常化情況嗎？

This one has got a ton of FX in it, and it flops around between equipment and consumables. So we don't get all bent out of shape quarter to quarter. We look at this -- this business really on a full-year basis. It grows 2% to 4% at the end of the day. So I wouldn't -- intra-quarter volatility is almost meaningless.

這個裡面有大量的 FX，它在設備和消耗品之間搖擺不定。所以我們不會因為每季的情況而感到失控。我們確實是以全年為基礎來看待這項業務的。最終，其成長率達到 2% 至 4%。所以我不會——季度內波動幾乎毫無意義。

Okay. I was talking about the outlook, but good to go. I'll leave it there. Thanks a lot.

好的。我正在談論前景，但一切進展順利。我就把它留在那裡。多謝。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

Good morning. Yes, we'll try and congratulate Brad on his retirement. It was a pleasure. Thank you.

早安.是的，我們會盡力祝賀布拉德退休。我很榮幸。謝謝。

He's still saying we when he answers the question.

當他回答問題時，他仍然在說「我們」。

I know. I know.

我知道。我知道。

It's encouraging.

這令人鼓舞。

Well, that's good.

嗯，那很好。

We're going to be here through all that capital deployment.

我們將堅持完成所有的資本部署。

Well, I'm binge watching Severance these days. So just '25 outlook for growth in vehicle wash. It's much better than the commentary from peers, and I would also say above-ground is turning. Do you think you're gaining share, or is it a real turn in the market, right?

嗯，最近我在狂看《Severance》。因此，這只是 25 年汽車清洗行業成長的前景。這比同行的評論要好得多，而且我也想說地上正在發生轉變。您認為您的市場份額正在增加嗎，或者這是市場真正發生的轉變嗎？

Well, I mean, I got to be careful with the peer commentary in vehicle wash because a lot of them own distribution and operate sites. We don't. We're purely an equipment manufacturer. I think the real material inflection that we're seeing there, if we take the cryogenic side and put it aside, is the mix impact of a couple things. The mix impact of below-ground, which has been pretty depressed for two or three years now, which is highly margin accretive, that's good. A lot of the restructuring we did last year is in this particular segment. So that's where the flow through comes in, which is good.

嗯，我的意思是，我必須謹慎對待洗車行業的同行評論，因為他們中的許多人都擁有自己的分銷和運營站點。我們沒有。我們純粹是設備製造商。我認為，如果我們將低溫方面放在一邊，我們所看到的真正的物質變化是幾個因素的混合影響。地下的混合影響在兩三年內一直處於低迷狀態，這對利潤率的增值有很大幫助，這是好事。我們去年進行的許多重組都涉及這個特定領域。這就是流通的來源，這很好。

And then the cryogenic piece we talked about at length in the end of Q3 that we are going to go through a big integration year here and expect to get the integration benefits of those-prior period acquisitions probably levered towards the second half of this year. So it's got a lot of kind of non-revenue benefit underlying it. And number one, and number two, mix is improving.

然後，我們在第三季末詳細討論了低溫部分，我們將在這裡經歷一個重要的整合年，並期望獲得前期收購的整合效益，這可能會在今年下半年實現。因此它具有多種非營利性收益。第一、第二，混合正在改善。

Excellent. Thank you for your expansive answer. And just a simple question for Calder. Do you think that business can double this year given sort of the underlying growth in liquid cooling?

出色的。感謝您的詳細回答。這只是問考爾德的一個簡單的問題。考慮到液體冷卻的潛在成長，您認為今年的業務可以翻倍嗎？

Well, I mean, double relative to what, Biopharma?

嗯，我的意思是相對於什麼來說，是生物製藥的兩倍嗎？

Relative to '24. (multiple speaker) No, just -- sorry, just the liquid cooling part. Sorry, just the data center. Yes, the data center part, sorry.

相對於’24。（多位發言者）不，只是－－抱歉，只是液體冷卻部分。抱歉，只是資料中心。是的，是資料中心部分，抱歉。

Could it? Yes. Will it? We'll see. As I mentioned before, it's just turned out to be such a short-cycle business that we've got -- we get a view of maybe 45 days in terms of the demand cycle. So we'll see. But could it? Yes.

可以嗎？是的。會嗎？我們將會看到。正如我之前提到的，事實證明這是一個短週期業務——就需求週期而言，我們大概可以計算出 45 天。我們拭目以待。但真的可以嗎？是的。

Thank you. It's good to have happy, optimistic reach back. Thank you.

謝謝。能夠擁有快樂、樂觀的回報真是太好了。謝謝。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

Hey, good morning, guys. Congrats. I'm sure you're going to miss that flight out on Monday morning or Sunday night out in Chicago. I've spent some frequent flyer miles our way, I guess. You probably have plenty. But anyways, I think you guys have covered most of the terrain here. It's been a lot of minutiae too. But if we back up a little bit, is the refrigeration story just about CO2 in '25? Or is it really also just about pent-up demand that there was a -- it's been a pretty long period, I think, of underinvestment from your customers. Is that a correct assessment?

嘿，大家早安。恭喜。我確信你將錯過週一早上或週日晚上從芝加哥出發的航班。我想，我已經花了一些飛行常客積分。你可能有很多。但無論如何，我想你們已經了解了這裡的大部分內容。還有很多細節。但如果我們稍微回顧一下，25 年的冷氣故事僅僅與二氧化碳有關嗎？或者這其實只是被壓抑的需求──我認為，客戶的投資不足已經持續了相當長的一段時間。這是正確的評估嗎？

I think that's a correct assessment. But recall that we have capped our capacity in that particular segment. So it's more for us margin performance through productivity plus CO2. We're not going to chase dilutive growth on the retail refrigeration side. So between the CO2 product offering and the specialty product offering, we'll take as much as we can get there. On the case business, we'll see. We're in early innings now about the CO2 transformation of whether you can bundle the CO2 system with the case and what does that mean for margins? I think that is something that will unfold during '25.

我認為這是一個正確的評估。但請記住，我們已經限制了該特定領域的容量。因此，對我們來說，利潤表現更多的是透過生產力加上二氧化碳來實現的。我們不會在零售冷凍方面追求稀釋性成長。因此，在二氧化碳產品和特色產品之間，我們會盡可能多地提供。關於案件情況，我們拭目以待。我們現在正處於二氧化碳轉型的早期階段，是否可以將二氧化碳系統與案件捆綁在一起，以及這對利潤意味著什麼？我認為這將是25年期間將會發生的事情。

Okay, fair enough. And then just a small question. I guess I've never asked this before, but if you had to split up your CapEx between kind of maintenance and growth, how would you think about what kind of that base level of maintenance CapEx is in the numbers?

好吧，夠公平。接下來是一個小問題。我想我以前從來沒有問過這個問題，但是如果你必須將你的資本支出分為維護和成長，你會如何看待數字中維護資本支出的基本水準？

That's a good question. We used to give a little pie chart on that. I'm guessing that it's $40 million maintenance, but that does not include IT and $60 million growth. And if I had to carve out IT, I'd have to get back to you, Scott.

這是個好問題。我們過去常常為此繪製一個小餅圖。我估計維護費用是 4000 萬美元，但還不包括 IT 和 6000 萬美元的成長費用。如果我必須開拓 IT 領域的話，我就得找你了，史考特。

Okay, good color. Thanks, guys. Best of luck this year, all right?

好的，顏色不錯。謝謝大家。祝你今年好運，好嗎？

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I get to do the last congrats to Brad. And wish you and your family all the best. Also, we go way back.

謝謝。大家早安。我要向布拉德致以最後的祝賀。並祝福您和您的家人一切順利。此外，我們還要回顧過去。

I know we do.

我知道我們會的。

Maybe just to start, Rich, on the two bolt-on deals, how did those come about? Where do they fit? What's kind of the attraction there? And how much of that pipeline that you're looking at fits that category?

也許只是開始，里奇，關於這兩項附加交易，它們是如何產生的？它們適合放在哪裡？那裡有啥景點？您所看到的管道中有多少屬於這一類別？

They're both proprietary. One is going to Pumps and Process Solutions and -- both of them are going. Yes, right. And they're both proprietary. One is cryogenics, but it actually ends up in our Pumps business. The other business is a product line expansion for plastics and polymers for MAAG. And that one, I think we've been working on for three years or so.

它們都是專有的。其中一個是去往泵浦和製程解決方案部門，兩個部門都去往該部門。是的，對。而且它們都是專有的。一個是低溫技術，但它實際上最終進入了我們的泵浦業務。另一項業務是擴展 MAAG 的塑膠和聚合物產品線。我想我們已經為這份工作工作了大約三年。

All right. Good to hear on that. And then data center came up a whole lot in the Q&A prepared remarks in your slides. My guess is those were already written prior to the Monday sell-off. And Rich, you've already said your short-cycle business, it's 45 days, so you're probably not looking any for out than that. But just in terms of managing this business, do you feel like there's any sea change in terms of data center CapEx? And I know you can't size the TAM, but is the TAM potentially getting smaller and more competition? Just kind of how might the competitive dynamics have changed since Monday?

好的。很高興聽到這個消息。然後，資料中心在幻燈片的問答準備發言中出現了很多次。我猜這些都是在周一拋售之前就已經寫好了。而且 Rich，您已經說過您的短週期業務是 45 天，因此您可能不會再尋找比這更長的時間了。但僅從管理這項業務的角度來看，您是否覺得在資料中心資本支出方面發生了重大變化？我知道你無法確定 TAM 的大小，但 TAM 是否可能變得更小且競爭更加激烈？從週一到現在，競爭態勢發生了什麼樣的變化？

Deane, I don't know. I mean the fact of the matter is in terms of the total TAM, we're a rounding error. We think that we've got a very good product that we have IP protected. I think that we were first in line in terms of building out the capacity, and that's pretty much what's driven the volume growth that we've seen.

迪恩，我不知道。我的意思是，事實上，就整體 TAM 而言，我們存在舍入誤差。我們認為我們已經擁有一款非常好的產品，而且我們的智慧財產權已受到保護。我認為我們在擴大產能方面處於領先地位，這也是我們所看到的產量成長的主要推動力。

I think we've been pretty prudent in terms of sizing the business. So we're not looking at the billions and billions of dollars and trying to do the mathematics of gigawatts to connectors. I mean, many have tried; all have failed. So I'm not overly worried about it at the end of the day. I think there's enough kind of shovels in the ground that makes us feel comfortable with our 2025 forecast.

我認為我們在確定業務規模方面是相當謹慎的。因此，我們不會考慮數十億美元的資金，也不會嘗試計算千兆瓦到連接器的數學運算。我的意思是，很多人都嘗試過；全部失敗了。所以到最後我並不太擔心這件事。我認為，已經有足夠的鏟子讓我們對 2025 年的預測感到滿意。

Excellent. I appreciate that color. Thanks.

出色的。我很欣賞那個顏色。謝謝。

Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer period of Dover's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。這就是我們對 Dover 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議的問答環節。現在您可以斷開您的線路，並享受美好的一天。