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Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Good morning, and welcome to Dover's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Speaking today are Richard J. Tobin, President and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Woenker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jack Dickens, Vice President of Investor Relations.
(操作員指示)早上好,歡迎參加多佛公司 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。今天發言的有總裁兼執行長理查德·J·托賓;高級副總裁兼首席財務官克里斯·沃恩克;以及投資者關係副總裁傑克·狄更斯。
(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded. And your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, please disconnect at this time. Thank you.
(操作員說明)提醒各位,女士們、先生們,本次電話會議正在錄音。您的參與即表示您同意我們錄製本次通話。如果您不同意這些條款,請立即斷開連線。謝謝。
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jack Dickens, please go ahead, sir.
現在我想把電話交給傑克狄更斯先生,請您發言,先生。
Jack Dickens - Senior Director of Investor Relations
Jack Dickens - Senior Director of Investor Relations
Thank you, Chloe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. An audio version of this call will be available on our website through November 13. And a replay link of the webcast will be archived for 90 days.
謝謝你,克洛伊。各位早安,感謝各位參加我們的電話會議。本次通話的音訊版本將於11月13日前在我們的網站上提供。網路直播的回放連結將存檔 90 天。
Our comments today will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ from those statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.
我們今天的評論將包含基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。實際結果和事件可能與這些聲明有所不同,因為存在許多風險和不確定因素,這些風險和不確定因素已在我們的美國證券交易委員會文件中進行了討論。我們不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的義務。
With that, I will turn the call over to Rich.
接下來,我將把電話交給里奇。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Jack. Good morning, everybody. Let's get started on slide 3.
謝謝你,傑克。大家早安。讓我們開始看第三張投影片。
Overall, we are pleased with Dover's third-quarter results. Revenue was up 5% in the quarter, driven by broad-based shipment growth in short-cycled components, continued strength across our secular growth end markets, and very encouraging results from recently closed acquisitions.
總體而言,我們對多佛第三季的業績感到滿意。本季營收成長 5%,主要得益於短週期零件出貨量的全面成長、長期成長型終端市場的持續強勁表現,以及近期完成的收購專案帶來的非常令人鼓舞的成果。
Order trends continued to be positive momentum in the quarter, up 8% all in year over year or 4% organically, providing good visibility for the remainder of the year and into 2026. Margin performance in the quarter was excellent.
本季訂單趨勢持續保持積極勢頭,年增 8%,有機增長 4%,為今年剩餘時間和 2026 年提供了良好的前景。本季利潤率表現優異。
With a record consolidated EBITDA margin of 26.1%, up 170 basis points over the comparable period as a result of positive mix impact from our growth platforms, solid execution, and our rigorous cost containment and productivity actions, all five segments posted margin improvements during the quarter.
由於成長平台帶來的積極組合影響、穩健的執行以及嚴格的成本控制和生產力提升措施,公司合併 EBITDA 利潤率創下 26.1% 的歷史新高,比上年同期增長 170 個基點,所有五個業務部門在本季度均實現了利潤率的提高。
All in, adjusted EPS was up 15% in the quarter and is up 17% year to date. Capital deployment remains a key driver of our double-digit earnings growth. This year, we increased our investments in high-ROI capital projects, focused on productivity and capacity expansions, as well as targeted footprint optimization.
綜合來看,本季調整後每股收益成長了 15%,今年迄今成長了 17%。資本部署仍然是我們實現兩位數獲利成長的關鍵驅動力。今年,我們增加了對高投資報酬率資本項目的投資,重點是提高生產力和產能,以及有針對性的佈局優化。
Our balance sheet strength is an advantage that provides flexibility and attractive optionality as we pursue value-creating bolt-on acquisitions and opportunistic capital return strategies. We have a constructive outlook for the remainder of 2025 and into '26.
我們雄厚的資產負債表實力是一項優勢,它為我們提供了靈活性和有吸引力的選擇,使我們能夠追求創造價值的附加收購和機會主義的資本回報策略。我們對 2025 年剩餘時間和 2026 年的前景持樂觀態度。
Despite some macroeconomic uncertainty, underlying end-market demand is healthy across most of the portfolio and is supported by our sustained order growth. As a result, we are increasing our full-year adjusted EPS guidance from $9.35 to $9.55 to $9.50 to $9.60.
儘管宏觀經濟存在一些不確定性,但大多數產品組合的潛在終端市場需求仍然健康,並得到了我們持續訂單成長的支持。因此,我們將全年調整後每股盈餘預期從 9.35 至 9.55 美元上調至 9.50 至 9.60 美元。
Let's go to slide 5. Engineered Products revenue was down in the quarter on lower volumes in vehicle services, partially offset by solid performance in aerospace and defense components. Despite the organic volume decline, absolute segment profit improved in the quarter on well-executed structural cost management, product mix, and productivity initiatives.
我們來看第5張投影片。本季工程產品收入因車輛服務銷售下降而減少,但航空航太和國防零件的強勁表現部分抵消了這一影響。儘管有機銷量下降,但由於有效執行了結構性成本管理、產品組合和生產力提升措施,本季度該部門的絕對利潤有所提高。
Clean Energy and Fueling was up 5% organically in the quarter, led by strong shipments in Clean Energy components, fluid transport, and North American retailing, fueling software and equipment. Our recent acquisition of Site IQ, a provider remote site monitoring of fueling sites, is off to a good start. Margin performance, as expected, was solid in the quarter, up 200 basis points on volume leverage and a higher mix of below-ground fueling equipment and restructuring benefit carryforward.
清潔能源和燃料業務在本季度實現了 5% 的有機成長,這主要得益於清潔能源組件、流體運輸以及北美零售、燃料軟體和設備的強勁出貨量。我們最近收購了 Site IQ,這是一家為加油站提供遠端現場監控服務的公司,目前看來,收購進展順利。正如預期的那樣,本季利潤率表現穩健,由於銷售槓桿作用、地下燃料設備佔比提高以及重組收益結轉,利潤率上升了 200 個基點。
Imaging and ID was up 3% organically in the quarter, and growth in our core marketing and coding business and in serialization software. Margin performance remains very good in the segment at 29% adjusted EBITDA margin, as management actions on cost to serve and structural cost controls continue to drive incremental margins higher.
本季圖像和 ID 業務有機成長 3%,核心行銷和編碼業務以及序列化軟體業務也實現了成長。此業務部門的利潤率表現依然非常出色,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 29%,這得益於管理層在服務成本和結構性成本控制方面採取的措施,這些措施持續推動利潤率的提升。
Pumps and Process Solutions was up 6% organically, with growth in single-use biopharma components, thermal connectors for liquid cooling of data centers, and precision components and digital controls for natural gas and power generation infrastructure.
泵浦和製程解決方案業務有機成長 6%,其中一次性生物製藥組件、資料中心液冷熱連接器以及天然氣和發電基礎設施的精密組件和數位控制器均實現成長。
SIKORA, which we acquired at the end of the second quarter, is significantly outperforming our underwriting case. Segment revenue mix, volume leverage drove margin improvement on solid production performance and volume in secular growth exposed end markets.
我們在第二季末收購的 SIKORA 的表現明顯優於我們的核保預期。分部收入結構和銷售槓桿作用推動了利潤率的提高,這得益於穩健的生產表現和長期成長型終端市場的銷售。
Revenue was down in the quarter in Climate and Sustainability Technologies and comparative declines in food retail cases and engineering services, which were collectively down 30% year to date. Industry-wide shipments of door cases are at a 20-year low, in part because of tariff uncertainty, has caused customers to delay maintenance and replacement upgrade spending.
本季氣候與永續發展技術業務收入下降,食品零售案例與工程服務業務收入也相對下滑,年初至今合計下降 30%。由於關稅的不確定性,門體產業整體出貨量處於 20 年來的最低水平,導致客戶推遲了維護和更換升級支出。
These projects cannot be delayed indefinitely. And encouragingly, we saw a material acceleration in booking rates in the quarter, which signals volume improvement moving forward. Meanwhile, the segment had record quarterly volumes in CO2 systems, as well as double-digit growth in heat exchangers and accelerating demand for liquid cooling of data centers and improving sentiment in European heat pumps.
這些項目不能無限期地拖延下去。令人鼓舞的是,我們看到本季預訂率出現了實質的加速成長,這預示著未來銷量將有所改善。同時,該領域的二氧化碳系統銷售創下季度新高,熱交換器銷量實現兩位數成長,資料中心液體冷卻需求加速成長,歐洲熱泵市場情緒好轉。
Despite the lower top line, the segment posted 120 points of margin improvement on productivity actions and a higher mix of US CO2 systems and brazed plate heat exchangers.
儘管營收下降,但該業務板塊透過提高生產效率和增加美國二氧化碳系統和釬焊板式熱交換器的比例,實現了 120 個百分點的利潤率提升。
I'll pass it to Chris.
我把它轉給克里斯。
Christopher Woenker - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Woenker - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Thanks, Rich. Good morning, everyone. Let's go to our cash flow statement on slide 6. Year-to-date free cash flow was $631 million or 11% of revenue, up $96 million over the prior year, has increased year-over-year operating cash conversion more than offset an increase -- an expected increase in capital spending.
謝謝你,里奇。各位早安。讓我們來看第6頁的現金流量表。今年迄今的自由現金流為 6.31 億美元,佔收入的 11%,比上年增加了 9,600 萬美元,年比經營現金轉換率的提高足以抵消資本支出預期成長的影響。
Free cash flow generation accelerated in the third quarter, in line with our expectations and with historical trends. And we expect a further step-up in the fourth quarter, which is historically our highest cash-generating quarter. Our guidance for 2025 free cash flow remains on track at 14% to 16% (technical difficulty) on strong conversion of operating free cash flow -- operating cash flow.
第三季自由現金流產生速度加快,符合我們的預期與歷史趨勢。我們預計第四季將進一步成長,而第四季歷來是我們現金流最高的季度。我們對 2025 年自由現金流的預期仍保持在 14% 至 16% 的水平(技術難度),這得益於經營自由現金流與經營現金流的強勁轉換。
With that, let me turn it back to Rich.
那麼,現在讓我把話題轉回給里奇。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Okay. I'm on slide 7. Let's put right a little more detail on the bookings in the third quarter. Q3 consolidated bookings were up 8% in total and 4% organically from the prior year. I call out the 25% bookings growth in Climate and Sustainability technologies, a welcome sign as we expect the segment to return to growth in the fourth quarter on broad-based volume demand.
好的。我看到第7張投影片了。讓我們更詳細地說明一下第三季的預訂情況。第三季綜合預訂量較上年同期成長 8%,其中有機成長 4%。我特別指出氣候和永續發展技術領域的預訂量增加了 25%,這是一個令人欣喜的跡象,因為我們預計該領域將在第四季度在廣泛的銷售需求推動下恢復成長。
On slide 8, we highlight several end markets that are key drivers of our revenue growth in 2025 and beyond. We are benefiting from major investments in power generation, electricity infrastructure, and artificial intelligence across multiple businesses.
在第 8 張投影片中,我們重點介紹了幾個終端市場,這些市場是我們 2025 年及以後營收成長的關鍵驅動因素。我們正受惠於多個業務領域在發電、電力基礎設施和人工智慧方面的大量投資。
We are directly exposed to data center build-out by hyperscalers and the secular shift from air cooling to liquid cooling of new chip technologies. Between our thermal CPC connectors, which primarily connect to the back of the server rack manifolds and directly to the chip as well as our large and XL heat exchangers from SWEP that are key components in cooling distribution units and chillers, we expect to generate over $100 million of revenue in this year alone.
我們直接受到超大規模資料中心建設的影響,以及新型晶片技術從空氣冷卻轉變為液冷的趨勢。我們的熱敏 CPC 連接器主要連接到伺服器機架歧管的背面並直接連接到晶片,而 SWEP 的大型和 XL 熱交換器是冷卻分配單元和冷卻器的關鍵組件,我們預計僅今年一年就能創造超過 1 億美元的收入。
Our recently closed SIKORA acquisition expands our exposure to electricity infrastructure through measurement and inspection control solutions for high-voltage, polymer-coated wires and cables, a direct beneficiary of growing electrification trends, and demand for customers for product quality assurance and improvement.
我們最近完成的對 SIKORA 的收購,透過高壓聚合物塗層電線電纜的測量和檢測控制解決方案,擴大了我們在電力基礎設施領域的業務範圍。我們直接受益於電氣化趨勢的成長,以及客戶對產品品質保證和改進的需求。
All this electricity has to come from somewhere, and natural gas remains the most viable option for scalable, reliable energy for the foreseeable future. Our precision components and OPW Clean Energy businesses participate across several points of the natural gas infrastructure value chain, including gas and steam turbine components, midstream gas pipeline engines and compressor infrastructure, and valves and vacuum jacketed piping used in liquification and gasification of LNG. End-market data and customer discussions indicate a very bright future for these businesses.
所有這些電力都必須來自某個地方,在可預見的未來,天然氣仍然是可擴展、可靠能源的最可行選擇。我們的精密組件和 OPW 清潔能源業務參與天然氣基礎設施價值鏈的多個環節,包括燃氣渦輪機和蒸汽渦輪機組件、中游天然氣管道發動機和壓縮機基礎設施,以及用於液化天然氣和氣化的閥門和真空夾套管道。終端市場數據和客戶訪談表明,這些企業擁有非常光明的前景。
Our single-use biopharma components platform has returned to its long-term, double-digit growth trajectory on volume demand and new product launches. Continued advances in biological drugs and therapies, coupled with an industry shift towards single-use manufacturing processes, are fueling sustained high-quality growth for our products.
在銷售需求和新產品推出的推動下,我們的一次性生物製藥組件平台已恢復了長期兩位數的成長軌跡。生物藥物和療法的不斷進步,以及產業向一次性生產流程的轉變,正在推動我們產品持續的高品質成長。
In CO2 refrigeration, we maintain a clear market leadership position in the US, supported by a fully platform product portfolio and a retrofitted plant in Conyers, Georgia, that provide strong competitive moats in product performance, lead times, and scalability. Economic and regulatory tailwinds are driving the transition to CO2 systems, as large national retail chains accelerate their adoption, with a line of sight of continued double-digit growth into 2026.
在二氧化碳冷凍領域,我們憑藉著完善的平台產品組合和位於喬治亞州康耶斯的改造工廠,在美國保持著明顯的市場領導地位,這為我們在產品性能、交貨時間和可擴展性方面提供了強大的競爭優勢。經濟和監管方面的利好因素正在推動向二氧化碳系統的過渡,大型全國零售連鎖店正在加速採用該系統,預計到 2026 年將繼續保持兩位數的成長。
A significant majority of the acquisition capital deployed in the past five years has been directed towards these high-end growth markets, which remain top priorities for continued investment. Collectively, these markets now represent roughly 20% of our portfolio and are contributing meaningfully to our margin expansion.
過去五年投入的絕大部分收購資金都流向了這些高端成長市場,這些市場仍是持續投資的首要重點。目前,這些市場合計約占我們投資組合的 20%,並為我們的利潤率擴張做出了重要貢獻。
Moving to slide 9. Our investments in center-led functions and ongoing focus on productivity improvement are key drivers of our margin expansion. We have made significant progress building out our shared back-office services, digital capabilities, and internal engineering services through the India Innovation Center.
切換到第9張投影片。我們對以中心為主導的職能部門的投資以及對生產力提升的持續關注是我們利潤率擴張的關鍵驅動因素。我們透過印度創新中心,在建構共享後台服務、數位化能力和內部工程服務方面取得了重大進展。
These center-led functions enable our operating companies to concentrate on what matters most: serving customers, driving new product development, and responding to market-specific needs while leveraging Dover's global scale and balance sheet. This structure remains a core competitive differentiator of our operating companies. And we extract cost synergies from our existing and acquired portfolio companies.
這些以中心為主導的職能使我們的營運公司能夠專注於最重要的事情:服務客戶、推動新產品開發以及回應特定市場需求,同時利用都福的全球規模和資產負債表。這種結構仍然是我們各營運公司的核心競爭優勢。我們從現有和收購的投資組合公司中榨取成本綜效。
Our Dover Business Services, Dover Digital, and Innovation Center are now fully developed and integrated across the organization. With these operations fully built out, we expect meaningful scale and scope benefits as we continue to grow organically and through acquisitions, further reducing average transaction costs and driving attractive margin accretion. We believe that our shared back-office services will be the largest nonproduct beneficiary of artificial intelligence implementation.
我們的 Dover 商業服務、Dover 數位和創新中心現已全面發展並整合到整個組織中。隨著這些業務的全面建成,我們預計隨著我們繼續透過內生成長和收購實現成長,將獲得顯著的規模和範圍效益,進一步降低平均交易成本,並推動利潤率的顯著成長。我們相信,我們共享的後台服務將是人工智慧實施的最大非產品受益者。
An important part of our business model is to drive productivity through targeted efficiency and fixed cost reduction programs. On the right are some of the key ongoing projects that we had highlighted in previous quarters, including our recently announced transition of the Anthony glass door manufacturing from Sylmar, California, into our existing Hillphoenix refrigerated case facility in Richmond, Virginia, a move expected to deliver significant (technical difficulty) these initiatives are projected to contribute $40 million in incremental carryover benefit in 2026, with additional benefits extending into 2027.
我們商業模式的重要組成部分是透過有針對性的效率提升和固定成本削減計劃來提高生產力。右邊是我們前幾個季度重點介紹的一些正在進行的關鍵項目,包括我們最近宣布將位於加利福尼亞州西爾瑪的安東尼玻璃門製造廠轉移到位於弗吉尼亞州里士滿的現有希爾菲尼克斯冷藏櫃工廠,此舉預計將帶來顯著的(技術難度)這些舉措預計將在 2026 年帶來 4000 萬美元的增量結轉收益,並且其他收益預計將在 2027 年延續到收益。
Let's finish up on the outlook, slide number10. We expect Engineered Products to improve sequentially in the fourth quarter on double-digit growth in aerospace and defense components, and improving market trends and competitive dynamics within vehicle services. Our outlook in Clean Energy and Fueling remain solid across most of the businesses.
讓我們結束對前景的分析,這是第 10 張投影片。我們預計,在航空航太和國防零件實現兩位數成長,以及汽車服務市場趨勢和競爭態勢改善的推動下,工程產品業務將在第四季環比成長。在大多數業務領域,我們對清潔能源和燃料供應的前景仍然樂觀。
North American retail fueling is starting another capital deployment cycle, and the outlook in Clean Energy components is positive as well. Vehicle wash continues to experience some headwinds, although we would expect that to recover in (technical difficulty) Imaging and ID should continue its long-term, steady growth trajectory, given the significant recurring revenue base and solid underlying demand with an additional upside from serialization software. We forecast this segment to continue its double-digit or single-digit organic trajectory.
北美零售加油產業即將開啟新一輪資本部署週期,清潔能源領域的前景也十分樂觀。車輛清洗業務仍然面臨一些不利因素,但我們預計它將在(技術困難)後復甦。鑑於其龐大的經常性收入基礎和穩健的潛在需求,以及序列化軟體帶來的額外成長潛力,影像和身分識別業務應該會繼續保持長期穩定的成長軌跡。我們預測該細分市場將繼續保持兩位數或個位數的自然成長動能。
The outlook for Pumps and Process Solutions is strong and broad-based, with attractive top-line forecasts across single-use biopharma components, thermal connectors for liquid cooling of data centers, and precision components for natural gas infrastructure. Bookings and backlog trends in our long-cycle polymer processing signal improving conditions. And the business should return to growth in the fourth quarter for the first time in over two years.
泵浦和製程解決方案的前景強勁且基礎廣泛,一次性生物製藥組件、資料中心液體冷卻用熱連接器以及天然氣基礎設施用精密組件的營收預測都極具吸引力。我們長週期聚合物加工的訂單量和積壓訂單趨勢顯示情況正在改善。該業務預計在第四季度恢復成長,這將是兩年多來首次實現成長。
And finally, Climate and Sustainability Technologies should grow in the high single digits organically in the fourth quarter on continued strength in CO2 refrigeration systems and heat exchangers, as well as growth in refrigerated door cases from improved booking rates.
最後,由於二氧化碳冷凍系統和熱交換器業務的持續強勁成長,以及冷藏門櫃預訂率的提高,氣候與永續發展技術業務在第四季度預計將實現接近兩位數的有機成長。
The full-year guidance is on the left. We accept acceleration and -- we expect acceleration of our top line in the fourth quarter, driven by our secular growth businesses and sequential recovery in certain capital goods end markets. We are well positioned as we begin to transition into 2026. And our advantaged balance sheet provides attractive optionality to selectively play offense to continue driving shareholder returns.
全年業績指引在左側。我們接受加速成長,並且預計第四季度營收將加速成長,這主要得益於我們長期成長的業務以及某些資本貨物終端市場的連續復甦。我們已做好充分準備,迎接2026年的到來。我們有利的資產負債表為我們提供了有吸引力的選擇權,可以選擇性地採取進攻策略,以繼續推動股東回報。
I'll pass it back to you, Jack.
傑克,我把它還給你。
Jack Dickens - Senior Director of Investor Relations
Jack Dickens - Senior Director of Investor Relations
Okay. I guess, Chloe, before you get to the script on questions, if I can just interject quickly. We've had a lot of pickup in our analyst coverage over the last 12 months. So if we could please limit the Q&A to just one question, we would greatly appreciate that. I'll turn it over to you, Chloe.
好的。我想,克洛伊,在你開始講解提問環節之前,我可以快速插一句嗎?在過去 12 個月裡,我們的分析師覆蓋範圍大幅增加。所以,如果我們能將問答環節限制為一個問題,我們將不勝感激。克洛伊,我把它交給你了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Andy Kaplowitz, Citi Group.
(操作員說明)安迪·卡普洛維茨,花旗集團。
Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst
Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst
Hey, good morning, everyone.
嘿,大家早安。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Hi, Andy.
嗨,安迪。
Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst
Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst
Rich, you mentioned an improving sequential outlook in vehicle services, improved booking rates in refrigeration door cases. But did you see improving bookings came across Q3 for the company? And would you expect book to bill over 1 times in Q4?
Rich,你提到車輛服務業務的連續性前景正在改善,冷藏門業務的預訂率也有所提高。但您是否注意到該公司第三季的預訂量有所改善?您預計該書在第四季的營收會超過1倍嗎?
And then do these improvements in relatively easy comps set you up for a better organic growth year in '26, at least closer to that algorithm that you've given out of 4% to 6% over time?
那麼,這些在相對容易比較的比較中取得的進步,是否能讓你在 2026 年實現更好的自然增長,至少更接近你之前給出的 4% 到 6% 的演算法預期?
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
That's about five questions, Andy, but let us -- I know where you're headed. Look, the year-over-year reduction in refrigeration on the basic retail refrigeration equipment has cost us about 1.5% to 2% of organic growth on a full-year basis.
安迪,大概有五個問題,不過──我知道你想說什麼。你看,基本零售冷凍設備的冷氣量逐年下降,使我們全年有機成長損失了約 1.5% 至 2%。
So the good news is that we've been able to cover that, largely because of our growth platforms and the margin improvement over year over year. And the good news also is, which I called out in the press release, is that because booking rates have accelerated, particularly in there and we will do quite well on the comparative top line in that business, that we're looking at close to $140 million to $150 million revenue headwind that we absorbed this year.
好消息是,我們已經能夠彌補這一缺口,這主要歸功於我們的成長平台以及逐年提高的利潤率。好消息是,正如我在新聞稿中提到的,由於預訂率加速成長,尤其是在該地區,我們在該業務的相對收入方面將表現相當不錯,因此我們預計今年將承受近 1.4 億至 1.5 億美元的收入逆風。
So do we get it all back next year? We'll see. But I think we're going to get a significant portion of it back if the Q4 trajectory holds as we go through the end of the year.
那麼明年我們能全部拿回來嗎?我們拭目以待。但我認為,如果第四季的成長勢頭能夠保持到年底,我們將能夠收回相當一部分損失。
Operator
Operator
Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.
史蒂夫圖薩,摩根大通。
C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst
C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst
It sounded like Andy was moving along there or something. I have -- it reminds me of back to school, one question in 32 parts. But just the implied organic in the fourth quarter, I mean, you have a pretty wide range there. But the low end of that range seems to be in and around the mid-single digits for the fourth quarter?
聽起來安迪好像在那邊走動了。我有——這讓我想起了返校考試,一個問題分成了 32 個部分。但僅就第四季的隱含有機成長而言,我的意思是,這個範圍相當大。但第四季的下限似乎在個位數中段左右?
And then totally unrelated follow-up to that, are you guys thinking about buying back stock? I mean, you guys have a ton of cash, and you sold probably a subpar asset for a multiple that's now above where your stock is trading. So any thoughts around a potential buyback as well?
然後,還有一個完全無關的後續問題,有沒有考慮到回購股票?我的意思是,你們手頭上有很多現金,而且你們可能賣掉了一項價值不高的資產,而賣出的估值倍數現在高於你們股票的交易價格。那麼對於潛在的回購計劃,大家有什麼想法嗎?
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I think if you go back and look in the transcript, you'll see the corporate speak for -- we think our shares are cheap, and we're likely to intervene, number one. And number two, yeah, I think that from -- on an organic basis, Q4 should be our highest quarter in the year.
是的。我認為,如果你回去查看一下記錄,你會發現公司方面表達的是——我們認為我們的股票很便宜,我們可能會進行幹預,這是第一點。第二,是的,我認為從有機成長的角度來看,第四季應該是我們全年成長最快的季度。
C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst
C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst
Okay, thanks.
好的,謝謝。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague,Vertical Research。
Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst
Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst
Hey, thanks. Good morning. Hey, Rich, just back to the sort of the restructuring, is this the totality of sort of what you foreshadowed for us on the Q2 call? Or are there sort of other actions in place that could then even be additive to this? Or is this pretty much in [flight] what we should expect for 2026?
嘿,謝謝。早安.嘿,Rich,回到重組的話題,這是否就是你在第二季度電話會議上向我們預告的全部內容?或者,是否有其他措施可以起到疊加作用?或者說,這基本上就是我們對 2026 年的期望?
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
We had a big debate in here, whether to not (technical difficulty) --
我們在這裡就此展開了激烈的辯論,討論是否應該這樣做。(技術難題)——
Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst
Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst
Hello?
你好?
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Hello? Still here.
你好?我還在這裡。
Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst
Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst
Yeah, I'm sorry. I didn't hear you. I don't know if that was my part (multiple speakers) --
是的,我很抱歉。我沒聽見。我不知道那是不是我的部分。(多位發言者)——
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Oh, all right. I'll answer it again. That is -- look, we had signaled that we were going to give an update in Q3. So that's where we are in Q3 right now. I expect that number to increase as we close the year. It's just going to be a question of the timing, whether it's '26 or '27. But that number should go up.
哦,好的。我再回答一次。也就是說——你看,我們已經表示將在第三季發布最新進展報告。這就是我們目前第三季的情況。我預計隨著年底臨近,這個數字還會增加。這只是時間問題,是 2026 年還是 2027 年。但這個數字應該會上升。
Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst
Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst
Great. Thank you, Rich.
偉大的。謝謝你,里奇。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe,Wolfe Research。
Nigel Coe - Analyst
Nigel Coe - Analyst
Thanks. I promise I'll keep this just to one question. So -- I promise. I promise I'll try it.
謝謝。我保證只問一個問題。所以——我保證。我保證會嘗試。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Nigel, we get complaints for cutting people off despite the fact we have the longest conference call. But anyway, go ahead.
奈傑爾,儘管我們的電話會議時間最長,我們還是會收到關於打斷別人發言的投訴。總之,你繼續吧。
Nigel Coe - Analyst
Nigel Coe - Analyst
No, I know. I know. I know. You got a lot of -- you are a popular company. Any initial thoughts on '26? And I'm not asking for a range here. But it just seems that a lot of the business that are dragging today could well be meaningful tailwinds in '26. And if these secular growth businesses continue, then '26 organic could be quite an acceleration. So just any thoughts as you see things right now for '26?
不,我知道。我知道。我知道。你們有很多——你們是一家很受歡迎的公司。對 '26 有什麼初步想法嗎?我並不是詢問範圍。但似乎今天很多拖累業務的因素,在 2026 年很可能會成為重要的順風。如果這些長期成長型企業持續保持成長勢頭,那麼 2026 年的有機成長可能會大幅加速。那麼,你對2026年的情況有什麼看法呢?
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I mean, we like the setup. In a strange way, we took the headwinds that we had not forecasted in refrigeration based on our discussions with customers. But because of rollover restructuring and a lot of productivity and some really healthy mix where we've been able to absorb it this year. So the good news is that the setup comparatively looks good there.
是的。我的意思是,我們喜歡這種安排。從某種程度上來說,我們遭遇了先前與客戶討論後並未預料到的製冷產業逆風。但由於業務重組、生產力大幅提升以及一些非常健康的業務組合,我們今年已經能夠消化這些成長。所以好消息是,那裡的佈置看起來相對不錯。
I'm not aware of any business within the portfolio that's forecasting down revenue for next year. Now clearly, somebody will get it right and somebody will get it wrong. But it's not like the situation that we had with MAAG in the past, where it was cyclical, and we knew it was going to come down. The rest of it, I think that we can look at the trajectory in Q4. If you put on just regular seasonality next year, I think the setup looks really good.
據我所知,投資組合中沒有任何一家企業預測明年的收入會下降。很顯然,有人會答對,有人會答錯。但這與我們過去在 MAAG 遇到的情況不同,MAAG 的情況是週期性的,我們知道它終究會衰退。至於其餘部分,我認為我們可以看看第四季的發展軌跡。如果明年只採用常規的季節性措施,我認為佈置看起來非常好。
Nigel Coe - Analyst
Nigel Coe - Analyst
Okay. Thanks, Rich.
好的。謝謝你,里奇。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Amit Mehrotra.
阿米特·梅赫羅特拉。
Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst
Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst
Congrats, operator. That was a pretty good attempt on my last name. Appreciate it. Rich, if we go back six months -- it feels like kind of a millennia ago -- but you were kind of prescient by lopping $100 million in the back half kind of right off the top. And it looks like that's kind of been absorbed.
恭喜操作員。那次模仿我的姓氏嘗試得還不錯。謝謝。Rich,如果我們回到六個月前——感覺就像過了一千年——但你很有先見之明,直接在後半段削減了 1 億美元。看起來這一點已經被吸收了。
As you think about rolling up the plan for '26, I mean, are you -- do you see the same -- I guess, the macro backdrop has gotten better. But do you still kind of feel like that kind of conservatism is appropriate as you think about '26?
當你考慮總結 2026 年的計劃時,我的意思是,你是否——你是否也看到了同樣的——我想,宏觀背景已經有所改善。但當你思考2026年時,你是否仍然覺得這種保守主義是合適的?
And then just related to that, the margins have been incredible this year, I think, all-time record in the third quarter. It feels like margins can move up again in '26, just given all the restructuring we did. But I just want to understand kind of -- you're starting off of a very high base, and would love to get your thoughts on margin progression into '26.
另外,與此相關的是,今年的利潤率非常驚人,我認為第三季創下了歷史新高。鑑於我們所做的所有重組,感覺 2026 年利潤率可能會再次上升。但我只是想了解一下——你們的起點很高,很想聽聽你們對 2026 年利潤率成長的看法。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Sure. I'll deal with the margin one first. You do have an amount of mix effect within the segments. So I think we'd have to consider that to a certain extent. But absolute profit will be fine. I don't think that we're over-earning from a margin point of view right now.
當然。我先處理利潤率的問題。各片段之間確實存在一定程度的混合效果。所以我覺得我們得在某種程度上考慮這一點。但絕對利潤是可以接受的。我覺得從利潤率的角度來看,我們目前的獲利並沒有過高。
If I look at each individual product line, there's nothing esoteric in there that said, yeah, well, we really killed it here. So I don't expect them to come down with the fact -- our business model, if we do things correctly, always has rollover restructuring and productivity.
如果我仔細查看每個產品線,會發現其中並沒有什麼深奧的東西能說明「是啊,我們在這方面做得非常出色」。所以我並不指望他們會接受這個事實——如果我們做對了,我們的商業模式總是能帶來重組和生產力提升。
We do -- that thing, we can do this every year for multiple years. And that's always a little bit of a hedge that we have for either volatility in the top line or kind of a negative mix change. So that's positive. So to the extent that we get the product mix that we like and we're rolling forward another $40 million, that's positive to margins overall. So I think that we're good there.
我們確實可以——那件事,我們可以連續多年每年都這樣做。這始終是我們為因應營收波動或產品組合的負面變化而採取的一種避險措施。這是個好消息。因此,只要我們能獲得我們喜歡的產品組合,並且我們還能再投入 4000 萬美元,這對整體利潤率就是正面的。所以我覺得我們那邊沒問題。
In terms of the setup, I think I answered it before. We took a pretty big headwind in refrigeration here. It's almost twofold percent points of growth -- of organic growth. We're at a 20-year low in terms of unit volume into that space this year.
關於設定方面,我想我之前已經回答過了。我們在冷凍領域遇到了相當大的阻力。這是近兩個百分點的成長——是自然成長。今年該領域的單元銷量處於 20 年來的最低水準。
I mean, do we come all the way back? But again, I think that -- let's -- we've got a pretty heavy number in terms of organic growth for Q4. Let's get that under our belt, and let's see where bookings are and everything else. But I like the setup. As I said before, we like it.
我的意思是,我們要原路返回嗎?但話說回來,我認為──我們來看──第四季的有機成長數字相當可觀。咱們先把這件事搞定,再看看預訂情況和其他所有事情。但我喜歡這種佈置。正如我之前所說,我們很喜歡它。
Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst
Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst
Okay, very good. Thank you.
好的,很好。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Scott Davis, Melius Research.
Scott Davis,Melius Research。
Scott Davis - Analyst
Scott Davis - Analyst
Hey, good morning, guys. Can you guys give some context to your data center exposure and kind of terms maybe around content per megawatt or opportunity per megawatt? I mean, do you look at it that way or (multiple speakers) --?
嘿,各位早安。你們能否介紹一下資料中心的暴露情況,以及一些相關的術語,例如每兆瓦的內容或每兆瓦的機會?我的意思是,你是這樣看待這件事的嗎?(多位發言者)-?
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
No. I mean, look, we have people that try to look at that way, but let's -- I mean, to be honest, in terms of participation. It's meaningful for us in terms of the volume and the margin. But in terms of the entire ecosystem and the billions of dollars being spent, we are who we are. Our focus is more getting the spec on the reference products for the reference customers.
不。我的意思是,你看,有些人試圖從那個角度看待問題,但是──說實話,就參與程度而言。就銷量和利潤率而言,這對我們來說意義重大。但就整個生態系統和數十億美元的投入而言,我們就是我們了。我們的重點更在於為參考客戶提供參考產品的規格。
And that, I think that we've been highly successful in doing that on both the brazed plate heat exchanger side and the thermal connector side. So to the extent that the market grows, the way we see it, we don't see a change in the competitive stack in those particular product lines. So if it grows, we'll get our fair share.
我認為,無論是在釬焊板式熱交換器方面還是在熱連接器方面,我們都取得了巨大的成功。因此,就我們所看到的市場成長而言,我們認為這些特定產品線的競爭格局不會改變。所以如果它發展壯大,我們就能分到我們應得的一份。
Scott Davis - Analyst
Scott Davis - Analyst
Okay. I'll pass it on. Thank you, guys. Good luck.
好的。我會轉達的。謝謝大家。祝你好運。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.
喬·里奇,高盛集團。
Joe Ritchie - Analyst
Joe Ritchie - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
謝謝。各位早安。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Joe.
嘿,喬。
Joe Ritchie - Analyst
Joe Ritchie - Analyst
Hey, Rich, can you just give a little bit more color on that SIKORA acquisition? I think you said that it was significantly outperforming. So that's great to see. And then maybe just give us an update on your deal pipeline and the potential to do more in the next 12 months?
嘿,Rich,你能再詳細說說SIKORA的收購案嗎?我想你說過它的表現明顯優於預期。看到這個真是太好了。然後,能否向我們介紹一下您的交易進度,以及未來 12 個月內進行更多交易的可能性?
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, sure. SIKORA, I think that we had a head start there because we had been working with SIKORA with our MAAG polymer processing equipment business on our own for our own users. And then we got to know each other. So we were able to close that.
當然可以。我認為我們在與 SIKORA 的合作中佔據了先機,因為我們之前就透過我們的 MAAG 聚合物加工設備業務,為我們自己的用戶與 SIKORA 進行過合作。然後我們彼此認識了起來。所以我們最終解決了這個問題。
Because as we learned about the company, not only for our own particular use, but what they were doing and where their exposure was, we really liked it. And knock wood, it's really done fantastically in Q1, significantly better than our deal model would have incorporated for the base year. We are in the process of integrating SIKORA.
因為當我們了解了這家公司之後,不僅了解了他們為我們自身帶來的好處,還了解了他們的業務範圍和影響力,我們真的很喜歡這家公司。值得慶幸的是,第一季業績非常出色,遠超我們交易模型中基準年的預期。我們正在整合 SIKORA。
So if you take a look at that back office slide that we put in there, in all three areas, we're working pretty (technical difficulty) mention of assembly operations pretty much done. So we're going to take what was a single-site manufacturing site and probably expand it at least in two other different geographies over the next 24 months. So that's great.
所以,如果你看一下我們放進去的後台幻燈片,在所有三個領域,我們都做得相當不錯(技術難度)提到裝配作業基本上完成了。因此,我們將把原本單一的生產基地,在接下來的 24 個月內,至少擴展到另外兩個不同的地區。那太好了。
In terms of the deal pipeline, if you look at the overall stats on M&A, it looks like M&A is up significantly, and it is. But it's really very large deals and corporate breakups and a variety of things. The mid-market, where we kind of play, has been slow.
就交易管道而言,如果你看一下併購的整體統計數據,你會發現併購活動明顯增加,事實也的確如此。但實際上涉及的是非常大的交易、公司分拆以及各種各樣的事情。我們主要涉足的中端市場發展緩慢。
In terms of pipeline, we've got an interesting pipeline there. In terms of valuation, valuations, I think that they're trying to find its footing. And that's the reason (technical difficulty) so we're being selective as usual. But we've got enough in the pipeline that I would expect that we'd close on a couple of things over the next 12 months.
就管道建設而言,我們那裡有一條很有趣的管道。就估值而言,我認為他們正在努力站穩腳跟。這就是原因(技術難題),所以我們像往常一樣採取選擇性的方式。但我們已經有很多專案正在籌備中,我預計在未來 12 個月內我們會完成幾個專案。
Joe Ritchie - Analyst
Joe Ritchie - Analyst
Helpful. Thank you.
很有幫助。謝謝。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.
克里斯‧史奈德,摩根士丹利。
Christopher Snyder - Equity Analyst
Christopher Snyder - Equity Analyst
Thank you. I wanted to ask on orders. So a positive update here in Q3, up 8% or 4% organic. But could you provide some color or thoughts on the order to revenue, I guess, conversion for the company?
謝謝。我想問一下訂單方面的問題。所以第三季傳來好消息,成長了 8%,其中有機成長 4%。您能否就公司的訂單到收入轉換率(我猜是轉換率)提供一些細節或想法?
Because you've had pretty good orders for a while now. And it hasn't really converted to the top line to the same degree that we've seen in orders. So I guess, any kind of thoughts on that? And it seems like going forward, you do expect better conversion, whether it's into Q4 or '26. So thank you.
因為你最近一段時間訂單量都相當不錯。但它並沒有像我們在訂單方面看到的那樣,真正轉化為營收成長。所以我想問大家,對此有什麼想法嗎?而且看起來,展望未來,無論是到第四季還是 2026 年,你都會期待更好的轉換率。所以,謝謝你。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I mean, the amount of attention that orders get and organic orders and extrapolate that into revenue is one of the great mysteries of life. But we continue to give the data (technical difficulty) that is more reflective than -- to me than orders kind of in terms of trajectory and everything.
是的。我的意思是,訂單和自然訂單所受到的關注程度,以及如何將這些關注程度推算成收入,是人生的一大謎團。但我們繼續提供數據(技術難度),在我看來,這些數據比訂單更能反映軌跡等等方面的情況。
But you're right. I mean, look, at the end of the day, we would have liked organic growth to be higher this year. I think it's been really isolated in two particular businesses. We had an inkling on the vehicle services. We probably have a challenging year. We missed it on refrigeration, clearly. The good news about that is we don't believe that that has lost revenue. It's just been pushed largely into '26 now, although we'll get a nice uptick next year.
但你說得對。我的意思是,說到底,我們原本希望今年的有機成長率能更高。我認為這種情況只在兩家特定的企業中出現過。我們之前就對車輛服務有所了解。我們今年可能面臨挑戰。顯然,我們在冷藏方面出了問題。好消息是,我們認為這並沒有造成收入損失。現在大部分都推遲到 2026 年了,不過明年我們會迎來一個不錯的成長。
So orders are up. Portfolio is in pretty good shape. I mean, if you see segments, we see it down to the individual operating company basis. As I mentioned earlier to an earlier question, we don't see a cyclical decline in any portion of the portfolio rolling into '26. And that's probably the first time that we can say that in a couple of years.
訂單量上升了。投資組合狀況良好。我的意思是,如果你查看各個業務板塊,我們可以看到它們細化到各個營運公司層面。正如我之前在回答問題時提到的那樣,我們預計到 2026 年,投資組合的任何部分都不會週期性下滑。這可能是近幾年來我們第一次能這麼說。
Christopher Snyder - Equity Analyst
Christopher Snyder - Equity Analyst
Thank you. I appreciate that.
謝謝。我很感激。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.
喬‧奧迪亞,富國銀行。
Joseph O'Dea - Analyst
Joseph O'Dea - Analyst
Hi. Good morning. Rich, you made the comment about how you're not aware of any businesses in the portfolio that are forecasting revenue down next year.
你好。早安.Rich,你曾說過,你不知道投資組合中有任何企業預計明年的收入會下降。
I guess, I'm curious about which ones you're most excited about the growth potential, just when you think about coming off of the MAAG-SWEP-Belvac kind of situation last year. And now you get sort of cases and doors and the vehicle lift side. And so just thinking about what could be poised to sort of deliver kind of growth that you're getting excited about next year?
我想,我很好奇你最看好哪些公司的發展潛力,尤其是在考慮到去年 MAAG-SWEP-Belvac 的情況之後。現在你會看到一些箱子、門和車輛升降機側面。所以,你覺得明年哪些方面可能會帶來讓你感到興奮的成長呢?
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Sure. We highlight the growth platforms, so I think you can go take a look at that. We think that we are in what should be a two- to three- to four-year CapEx cycle in the Fueling business overall, inclusive of the cryogenic components and everything that we bought in that space.
當然。我們重點介紹了成長平台,所以我覺得你可以去看看。我們認為,燃料業務整體而言,包括低溫組件以及我們在該領域購買的所有東西,應該處於兩到三年或四年的資本支出週期內。
So I think -- what was our growth this quarter, like five or five organics?
所以我想問—我們本季的成長是多少?例如五分之一或五分之一的有機成長?
Christopher Woenker - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Woenker - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yeah.
是的。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Which is pretty good overall. And we don't see that slowing for the foreseeable future for a variety of reasons, whether it's customer CapEx or regulatory and everything else.
整體來說還不錯。由於各種原因,無論是客戶資本支出、監管或其他種種因素,我們預計這種趨勢在可預見的未來都不會放緩。
Refrigeration, I think we've beaten that one to death at this point. We don't -- I don't know -- Belvac is growing this year. We -- I think it will grow some next year. But that's not going to move the needle in comparison to refrigeration and what's happening in brazed plate heat exchangers.
關於冷凍技術,我覺得我們已經把這個主題討論得太多了。我不知道——我也不知道——貝爾瓦克今年是否在增長。我認為明年它會有所增長。但與冷凍和釬焊板式熱交換器相比,這不會帶來任何改變。
Vehicle services, we'll see. I mean, it's been a tough year because a lot of that is exposure to Europe. It's a little bit early to make a call on Europe. But I don't expect it to decline going forward. And actually, the management has done a really great job on the cost structure. So even despite the top line headwind that you see this year (technical difficulty) okay.
車輛服務方面,我們拭目以待。我的意思是,今年很艱難,因為很多事情都與歐洲有關。現在對歐洲局勢下結論還為時過早。但我預計它未來不會下降。事實上,管理階層在成本結構方面做得非常好。所以即使今年面臨一些不利因素(技術困難),也沒關係。
Joseph O'Dea - Analyst
Joseph O'Dea - Analyst
Thank you. It cut out at the end on me, but I heard through management doing a great job on cost structure and vehicle lift.
謝謝。最後通話中斷了,但我從管理層那裡聽說他們在成本結構和車輛提升方面做得非常出色。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, yeah. So what I'm saying is if it grows a little bit next year, the incremental margin should be positive.
是啊是啊。我的意思是,如果明年略有成長,增量利潤應該是正的。
Joseph O'Dea - Analyst
Joseph O'Dea - Analyst
Got it. Thank you.
知道了。謝謝。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
You're welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.
迪恩德雷,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。
Deane Dray - Analyst
Deane Dray - Analyst
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
謝謝。各位早安。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Hi, Deane.
嗨,迪恩。
Deane Dray - Analyst
Deane Dray - Analyst
Hey. On Imaging, can you expand on the point about serialization software kind of size, what the opportunity is, and some context, please?
嘿。關於影像處理,您能否詳細闡述序列化軟體的規模、發展機會以及一些背景資訊?
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Sure. It's 16%, I guess, of the total revenue of the space?
當然。我猜這佔該領域總收入的16%?
Christopher Woenker - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Woenker - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yeah. It's about $60 million, $70 million.
是的。大約是6000萬美元,7000萬美元。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Okay. Anyway, yeah, it's leveraged almost exclusively to pharma. So as pharma builds out production lines, that's when we sell the software and the recurring revenue associated with it. I think that everybody is pretty well aware of what's going on in kind of incentivized reshoring of pharma. And I think that we'll get our fair share of that.
好的。總之,是的,它幾乎完全被用於製藥業。因此,隨著製藥公司建立生產線,我們就可以銷售軟體以及與之相關的經常性收入。我認為大家都很清楚目前製藥業正受到激勵機制的回流趨勢。我認為我們也會得到我們應得的那份。
Deane Dray - Analyst
Deane Dray - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
You're welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Julian Mitchell, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。
Julian Mitchell - Analyst
Julian Mitchell - Analyst
Hi, good morning.
您好,早安。
Christopher Woenker - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Woenker - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Hello, Julian.
你好,朱利安。
Julian Mitchell - Analyst
Julian Mitchell - Analyst
Hey. I just wanted to understand, Rich, a little bit better sort of how you've seen the demand environment play out. Because your tone is quite upbeat on the top line, but the revenue guide is reiterated.
嘿。Rich,我只是想更了解你對需求環境發展的看法。因為你對業績的整體基調相當樂觀,但收入預期卻被反覆重申。
And so I guess, to put a finer point on it, I wondered if any of the segment revenue assumptions for this year have changed since the figures you guided for in July, and whether there had been anything in the bookings that had surprised you positively in the last few months or so.
所以,更確切地說,我想知道今年各業務部門的收入預期是否與您在 7 月份給出的預期數字有所不同,以及在過去幾個月裡,預訂方面是否有任何令您感到驚喜的情況。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Sure. Clearly, we missed on retail refrigeration by a significant amount. All the customer information that we're getting, it was on the comm. I think -- some of the commentary that we gave intra-quarter, when we can see that it wasn't coming, we were like, okay, now it's not coming. But we're chasing our tail a little bit. So the quantum of that loss on a full-year basis is 1% or 2% of organic revenue growth that we had.
當然。顯然,我們在零售冷藏領域錯失了許多機會。我們獲得的所有客戶訊息,都在通信中。我認為——我們在季度中給出的一些評論,當我們看到它不會到來時,我們就會想,好吧,現在它不會來了。但我們有點兒本末倒置了。因此,以全年計算,該損失金額相當於我們有機收入成長的 1% 或 2%。
Now it's going to flex now because the orders popped. So at least optically, we'll have a good look. In Q4 (technical difficulty) were $130 million, $140 million of revenue that we've got to make up year over year. We'll take half of that growth for next year, Julian, at the end of the day.
現在訂單激增,它即將迎來爆發性成長。所以至少從視覺上看,我們可以好好觀察一下。第四季(技術困難)我們損失了 1.3 億美元至 1.4 億美元的收入,我們需要逐年彌補。朱利安,說到底,明年我們會把這部分成長金額的一半留給自己。
The balance of the businesses, the trajectory is fine in terms of orders. We always have to be a little bit careful in Q4 because we're guessing about our customers' behavior on their own inventory at the end of the day. But I think that -- someone asked earlier about that -- someone did the math on the squeeze for revenue growth in Q4, and that's fair.
從訂單量來看,各業務的平衡和發展軌跡都很好。第四季我們總是要格外謹慎,因為歸根究底,我們只能猜測客戶對其自身庫存的行為。但我認為——之前有人問過這個問題——有人計算過第四季度營收成長受到的擠壓,這很合理。
So it stays within our window. It gives us a little bit of cushion just in case December is light in terms of shipments. But overall, there's really -- the only significant change is that biopharma hung in there because there was some thought about -- well, was this restocking? And clearly, it's not. We've run the numbers on that.
所以它仍然在我們的觀察範圍內。這樣可以留一些緩衝空間,以防12月出貨量較少。但總的來說,唯一顯著的變化是生物製藥行業堅持了下來,因為人們開始思考——這是否意味著補貨?顯然,事實並非如此。我們已經計算過了。
So it's been pretty consistent in terms of demand and should be consistent in Q4. Same thing with thermal connector. So overall, there's a little bit of cushion on the revenue side in Q4. But the trajectory and the only thing that's changed is we lost basically a quarter of retail refrigeration.
因此,需求一直相當穩定,預計第四季也將保持穩定。熱敏連接器也存在同樣的問題。所以整體而言,第四季營收方面還有些緩衝空間。但發展軌跡和唯一改變的是,我們基本上失去了四分之一的零售冷藏業務。
Julian Mitchell - Analyst
Julian Mitchell - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Richard Tobin - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
And I would now like to turn the call back to the presenters for any additional or closing remarks.
現在我想把發言權交還給各位主持人,請他們補充或作總結發言。
Jack Dickens - Senior Director of Investor Relations
Jack Dickens - Senior Director of Investor Relations
No, Chloe, you can wrap up.
不,克洛伊,你可以穿好衣服了。
Operator
Operator
Certainly. Thank you, everyone. This concludes our question-and-answer period and Dover's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.
當然。謝謝大家。我們的問答環節和多佛公司2025年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了,祝您有美好的一天。