道爾 (DOV) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Dover's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Speaking today are Richard J. Tobin, President and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Woenker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jack Dickens, Vice President, Investor Relations.

早上好，歡迎參加 Dover 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天發言的有總裁兼執行長理查德·托賓 (Richard J. Tobin)、高級副總裁兼首席財務官克里斯·沃恩克 (Chris Woenker) 和投資者關係副總裁傑克·狄更斯 (Jack Dickens)。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded, and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, please disconnect at this time. Thank you.

（操作員指示）女士們，先生們，提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音，您的參與意味著同意我們錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，請立即斷開連線。謝謝。

I'd now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jack Dickens. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給傑克狄更斯先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Margo. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. An audio version of this call will be available on our website through May 15, and a replay link of the webcast will be archived for 90 days.

謝謝你，瑪戈。大家早安，感謝你們參加我們的電話會議。本次電話會議的音訊版本將在我們的網站上提供至 5 月 15 日，網路直播的重播連結將存檔 90 天。

Our comments today will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ from those statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are disclosed in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

我們今天的評論將包括基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。由於我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中揭露的許多風險和不確定性，實際結果和事件可能與這些聲明有所不同。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, I will turn this call over to Rich.

說完這些，我會把這通電話轉給里奇。

Thanks, Jack. Good morning, everybody. Let's go to slide 3. Q1 was a good quarter. Adjusted EPS was up 19% over the prior year on excellent incremental margin conversion, driven by a healthy mix of our growth platforms, prior-period structural cost actions, and positive price cost dynamics. Adjusted EBITDA margin was up 240 basis points to 24%, a record result for Q1, with four or five segments posting over 100 basis points of comparative margin expansion. Importantly, organic bookings were up for the sixth consecutive quarter with book-to-bill north of 1 across all five segments, resulting in a sizable portion of Q2 revenue already in backlog.

謝謝，傑克。大家早安。我們來看投影片 3。第一季表現良好。調整後每股收益較上年增長 19%，得益於出色的增量利潤率轉換，這得益於我們增長平台、前期結構性成本行動和積極的價格成本動態的健康組合。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率上漲 240 個基點，達到 24%，創下第一季的新高，其中四、五個部門的比較利潤率成長超過 100 個基點。重要的是，有機預訂量連續第六個季度上升，五個部門的訂單出貨比均超過 1，導致第二季收入中相當一部分已經積壓。

Overall, we are very encouraged by the start of the year. All of our efforts on portfolio construction, new product introductions, and methodical cost and productivity actions are driving meaningful improvement in segment profitability and durable long-term top-line resilience.

總體而言，我們對今年的開始感到非常鼓舞。我們在產品組合建構、新產品推出以及有條不紊的成本和生產力行動方面的所有努力都在推動分部獲利能力和持久的長期營收彈性的顯著提升。

Let's go to slide 5. Engineered Products was down in the quarter on lower volumes in vehicle services and program timing in aerospace and defense. We intervened on the cost structure of vehicle service to support its margin performance going forward. Engineered Products, and specifically vehicle services, the most exposed to tariffs, so Chinese imported subcomponents in our case, structural steel.

我們來看第 5 張投影片。由於汽車服務業務量下降以及航空航太和國防專案時間安排的減少，工程產品業務在本季出現下滑。我們幹預了汽車服務的成本結構，以支持其未來的利潤表現。工程產品，特別是汽車服務，最容易受到關稅的影響，因此在我們這個例子中，中國進口的子部件就是結構鋼。

We are out with pricing mitigation actions, but we'll keep a close eye on volume. The segment will be bolstered as the year progresses by calendarization of our Aerospace and Defense business. With the divestitures of De-Sta-Co Environmental Services Group in '24, our Engineered Products segment now accounts for 15% of our total portfolio, down from 25% in the prior year.

我們已經採取了價格緩解措施，但我們會密切注意交易量。隨著我們航空航太和國防業務的日曆化，該部門將隨著時間的推移而加強。隨著 2024 年 De-Sta-Co 環境服務集團的剝離，我們的工程產品部門目前占我們總投資組合的 15%，低於前一年的 25%。

Clean Energy & Fueling is up 2% organically in the quarter, led by strong shipments in clean energy components, fluid transport, and below-ground retail fueling equipment. Robust order activity and below-ground retail fueling signals a recovery after two years of lower volumes, a welcome outcome. We are also encouraged by the increasing quoting activity in clean energy components, particularly in recent wins in space launch and LNG infrastructure in the US and Europe.

清潔能源和燃料業務本季有機成長 2%，主要得益於清潔能源組件、流體運輸和地下零售加油設備的強勁出貨量。強勁的訂單活動和地下零售加油標誌著在經歷了兩年的低迷之後的復甦，這是一個可喜的結果。清潔能源零件報價活動的不斷增加也令我們感到鼓舞，尤其是最近在美國和歐洲的航太發射和液化天然氣基礎設施領域的進展。

Margin performance was robust in the quarter, up 180 basis points on a higher mix of below-ground fueling equipment and tight cost controls. We expect this segment to be the leaders in margin accretion in 2025 on volume leverage, pricing, and SKU management, and positive product mix. Imaging and ID posted another solid quarter with organic growth, 4% on strong wins in serialization software and broad-based growth in core marking and coding across all geographies and product lines. Margin performance was robust as management actions on cost to serve and structural cost controls continue to drive incremental margins higher.

本季利潤表現強勁，由於地下加油設備組合增加和成本控制更加嚴格，利潤率上漲了 180 個基點。我們預計，到 2025 年，該細分市場將在銷售槓桿、定價、SKU 管理以及積極的產品組合方面成為利潤成長的領導者。影像和 ID 業務再創佳績，有機增長 4%，得益於序列化軟體的強勁增長以及所有地區和產品線的核心標記和編碼的廣泛增長。由於管理階層對服務成本和結構性成本控制的措施持續推動增量利潤率上升，利潤率表現強勁。

Pumps and Process Solutions was up 7% organically on double-digit growth in single-use biopharma components and triple-digit growth in thermal connectors for liquid cooling of data centers. Precision Components and Industrial Pumps also had solid results. As forecasted, the long-cycle polymer processing equipment was down year over year in the quarter.

泵浦和製程解決方案部門有機成長 7%，其中一次性生物製藥組件實現兩位數成長，資料中心液體冷卻熱連接器實現三位數成長。精密零件和工業泵浦也取得了穩健的業績。正如預測的那樣，本季長週期聚合物加工設備產量年減。

Segment revenue mix and volume leverage drove margin improvement on excellent production performance and volume growth in biopharma and thermal. The outlook for the rest of the year is favorable in Pumps and Process Solutions. Biopharma components and thermal connectors should continue their robust growth trajectories on secular themes in single-use biological drug production and liquid cooling of data centers.

由於生物製藥和熱能領域的出色生產性能和產量增長，分部收入結構和產量槓桿推動了利潤率的提高。今年剩餘時間泵和製程解決方案的前景看好。生物製藥組件和熱連接器應繼續在一次性生物藥物生產和資料中心液體冷卻等長期主題上保持強勁的成長軌跡。

Our Precision Components business has a healthy exposure to the gas and steam turbine markets, which are performing well. Revenue was down in the quarter in climate and sustainability technologies and comparative declines of food, retail, door cases, and engineering services, which more than offset the record quarterly volumes in CO2 systems.

我們的精密零件業務在燃氣和蒸汽渦輪機市場佔有較大的份額，並且表現良好。本季氣候和永續技術的收入下降，食品、零售、門箱和工程服務的收入也相應下降，但這超過了二氧化碳系統創紀錄的季度銷售。

We are encouraged to see year-over-year growth in our heat exchanger business for the first time since the fall of 2023. Shipments of heat exchanges for installation and European heat pump still faced poor comp in Q1 but were up sequentially from Q4.

我們很高興看到，自 2023 年秋季以來，我們的熱交換器業務首次實現同比成長。第一季安裝用熱交換器和歐洲熱泵的出貨量仍然年比不佳，但較第四季有所上升。

Despite the lower top line, the segment posted 120 basis points of margin improvement and year-over-year growth in absolute earnings on productivity actions and a higher mix of CO2 systems. We expect improvement of segment performance over the balance of the year on the strength of CO2 refrigeration systems, robust growth at heat exchanges for liquid cooling of data centers, and a continued recovery in heat exchanges for European heat pumps on improving end customer sentiment and normalized channel stocking levels.

儘管營業收入較低，但由於生產力措施和二氧化碳系統組合的增加，該部門的利潤率提高了 120 個基點，絕對收益同比增長。我們預計，由於二氧化碳冷卻系統的強勁表現、數據中心液體冷卻熱交換器的強勁增長以及終端客戶情緒的改善和渠道庫存水平的正常化，歐洲熱泵熱交換器的持續復甦，今年剩餘時間各部門的業績將有所改善。

I'll pass it to Chris.

我會把它傳給克里斯。

Thanks, Rich. Good morning, everyone. Let's go to our cash flow statement on slide 6. Our free cash flow in the quarter was $109 million or 6% of revenue. This was a $3 million increase when compared to the first quarter of last year. Higher earnings and improved working capital performance were partially offset by the expected increase in capital spending on growth and productivity projects.

謝謝，里奇。大家早安。我們來看第 6 張投影片上的現金流量表。本季我們的自由現金流為 1.09 億美元，佔營收的 6%。與去年第一季相比，這一數字增加了 300 萬美元。預期的成長和生產力項目資本支出增加部分抵消了更高的收益和改善的營運資本績效。

The improved working capital performance was driven by strong collection activity positively impacting our accounts receivable balance, partially offset by investments in inventory ahead of seasonally stronger volume quarters in Q2 and Q3. The first quarter is traditionally our lowest cash flow quarter of the year. Our guidance for 2025 free cash flow remains on track at 14% to 16% of revenue on strong conversion of operating cash flow.

營運資本表現的改善得益於強勁的收款活動對我們的應收帳款餘額產生了積極影響，但部分抵消了第二季和第三季季節性強勁銷售季之前的庫存投資。第一季通常是我們一年中現金流最低的季度。由於經營現金流的強勁轉換，我們對 2025 年自由現金流的預期仍保持在營收的 14% 至 16% 左右。

With that, let me turn it back to Rich.

說完這些，讓我把話題轉回給里奇。

I'm on slide 7. Here, we provide a little more detail on the bookings in the first quarter. Q1 marked our sixth consecutive quarter of positive year-over-year organic bookings growth, posting a book-to-bill above 1. As shown in the segment detail on the right, the booking rates were broad-based with strength in our secular growth exposed markets and an encouraging trend as we move through the year.

我在第 7 張投影片。這裡，我們提供了第一季預訂的更多詳細資訊。第一季是我們連續第六個季度實現有機預訂量年增長，訂單出貨比超過 1。如右側的細分細節所示，預訂率基礎廣泛，我們的長期成長市場表現強勁，並且隨著全年的發展呈現令人鼓舞的趨勢。

Let's go to slide 8, which highlights several of the end markets they were driving our consolidated organic growth forecast. Between end market data, our customer forecast and our booking rates, we are encouraged by the outlook in the broader industrial gas complex within clean energy and precision components, single-use biopharma components, CO2 refrigeration and inputs into liquid cooling applications or data centers, which include our connectors, as well as heat exchangers.

我們來看第 8 張投影片，其中重點介紹了推動我們綜合有機成長預測的幾個終端市場。在終端市場數據、客戶預測和我們的預訂率之間，我們對清潔能源和精密組件、一次性生物製藥組件、二氧化碳製冷以及液體冷卻應用或數據中心的輸入（包括我們的連接器以及熱交換器）中更廣泛的工業氣體綜合體的前景感到鼓舞。

We have made significant organic and inorganic investments behind these end markets. 75% of the acquisition capital we've deployed over the last five years has been behind these markets, and they remain some of our highest priority areas of investment moving forward. In aggregate, these markets now account for 20% of our portfolio and drive attractive margin accretion on expected double-digit growth.

我們在這些終端市場進行了大量有機和無機投資。過去五年來，我們部署的收購資本的 75% 都用於這些市場，而且它們仍然是我們未來最優先投資的領域之一。總體而言，這些市場目前占我們投資組合的 20%，並在預期兩位數成長的基礎上推動利潤率的顯著成長。

Moving to 9. Our organic investments remain our highest priority. For capital deployment, we will continue to invest behind our existing businesses regardless of the near-term fluctuations in the macro sentiment. Here we show some of the most meaningful and high ROI projects for 2025. You'll see a healthy balance between growth capacity expansions behind some of our highest priority platforms, as well as productivity and automation investments including some rooftop consolidations. As the rooftop consolidation projects are completed in the second half, we will provide the roll-forward benefit of the reduction of fixed costs.

移至 9。我們的有機投資仍然是我們的首要任務。對於資本配置，無論宏觀情緒短期內如何波動，我們都將繼續投資現有業務。這裡我們展示了一些 2025 年最有意義且投資報酬率最高的項目。您會看到，我們一些最優先平台背後的成長能力擴張與包括一些屋頂整合的生產力和自動化投資之間存在著健康的平衡。隨著下半年屋頂加固工程的完成，我們將提供降低固定成本的滾動效益。

Go to slide 10. This slide delineates our current tariff exposure. Clearly, this is a bit of a moving target. And these are annualized cost based on 2024 volumes. Nevertheless, it gives you the current situation and the prevailing tariff rates. Takeaway here is that we are a proximity manufacturer and the costs are embedded in our guidance. I leave the rest to Q&A, where I'm sure we'll beat this to death.

翻到第 10 張投影片。這張投影片描述了我們目前的關稅風險。顯然，這是一個不斷變化的目標。這些是基於 2024 年產量計算的年化成本。儘管如此，它還是向您提供了當前的情況和現行的關稅稅率。這裡的要點是，我們是一家近距離製造商，成本已包含在我們的指導中。我將剩下的問題留給問答環節，我相信我們會把這個問題討論得透徹。

Let's go to slide 11. We have modestly trimmed our revenue and EPS guidance ranges for the full year to reflect uncertainty of the demand environment in the second half of the year because of the ongoing tariff negotiations. This is purely a top-down mechanical adjustment at this point. Based on the trends in our order rates, together with backlog levels, we are in really good shape for Q2, but I think it's fair to say uncertainty in the tariff environment will have some impact on medium-term demand.

我們來看第 11 張投影片。由於正在進行的關稅談判，我們適度下調了全年收入和每股收益預測範圍，以反映下半年需求環境的不確定性。目前這純粹是自上而下的機械調整。根據我們的訂單率趨勢以及積壓訂單水平，我們第二季的狀況非常好，但我認為可以公平地說，關稅環境的不確定性會對中期需求產生一定影響。

As a note, we set our forecast using prevailing exchange rates at the beginning of the quarter and have not adjusted our forecast for any fluctuations in foreign exchange since then, in particular, the euro-dollar rate. Clearly, at current spot rates, the translation headwind is reversing to a tailwind with the euro rallying over 5% of the dollar in the past month. Due to the short-term volatility in foreign exchange, we have chosen to wait until the end of the second quarter to see where it settles.

值得注意的是，我們在本季初使用現行匯率設定了我們的預測，並且從那時起就沒有根據任何外匯波動調整我們的預測，特別是歐元兌美元的匯率。顯然，按照目前的現貨匯率，翻譯的逆風正在逆轉為順風，歐元在過去一個月內上漲了 5% 以上美元。由於外匯的短期波動，我們選擇等到第二季末再觀察其趨勢。

A final note on the current environment tariffs. Like any changes that occur in the macro environment, there's a tendency focus on the negative implications. While we have spent countless hours over the past month on tariff costs and the supply chain implications by business and region and developing mitigation plans, one must not ignore evaluating competitive positioning.

最後說明一下當前的環境關稅。就像宏觀環境中發生的任何變化一樣，人們傾向於關注其負面影響。雖然我們在過去一個月花了無數的時間研究關稅成本以及企業和地區對供應鏈的影響並製定緩解計劃，但我們絕不能忽視評估競爭定位。

We are a proximity manufacturer with our cost and revenue-based aligned. We have manageable supply chains. We will implement solutions to offset the cost implications of tariffs, and we'll push hard for market share gains where we believe we are strategically advantaged, be that on a cost or geographic footprint basis.

我們是一家成本和收入一致的近距離製造商。我們擁有可管理的供應鏈。我們將實施解決方案來抵消關稅的成本影響，並將努力爭取我們認為具有戰略優勢的市場份額，無論是在成本還是地理覆蓋範圍內。

Dover proved during the pandemic that it can play defense and defend margins in a challenging demand environment. We entered this year with exceptionally good momentum from a product and portfolio perspective, and an advantaged balance sheet position that allows us to opportunistically play offense in capital deployment. We will weather this tariff tumult, and I would argue that our business leaders are positioned far more on offense than defense at present.

疫情期間，多佛證明了自己能夠在充滿挑戰的需求環境中採取防禦措施並捍衛利潤率。從產品和投資組合的角度來看，我們今年的發展勢頭非常好，資產負債表狀況也處於優勢地位，這使我們能夠在資本配置方面抓住機會發動攻擊。我們將度過這場關稅風暴，我認為我們的商業領袖目前的立場是進攻而非防守。

Let's go to Q&A.

讓我們進入問答環節。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

謝謝。（操作員指示） Jeff Sprague，Vertical Research。

Hey, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Yeah, Rich, let me start the dead horse beating here. Just on the tariff side, I wonder -- I guess this question is, is there going to be some fungibility, right, in what you do on cost. But I'm trying to kind of get a sense of what you're doing new incremental to offset tariffs versus what you already had in flight. I mean, it sounds like the $60 million reshoring thing you called out is one of them. But just thinking about sort of the cost versus pricing dynamics that you're doing here. And again, how much might have been sort of in the plan now and is going towards tariffs as opposed to potentially upside that we could have had to 2025?

嘿，謝謝你。大家早安。是的，里奇，讓我從這裡開始說這件無聊的事。僅在關稅方面，我想知道——我想這個問題是，在成本方面是否會有一些可替代性，對吧。但我想了解一下你們為抵消關稅而採取的新措施與你們現有的航班相比有何不同。我的意思是，聽起來你提到的 6000 萬美元的回流計劃就是其中之一。但只是考慮一下您在這裡所做的成本與定價動態。再說了，現在計劃中有多少可能已經用於關稅，而不是到 2025 年可能產生的上行潛力？

Yeah. I think when we were doing all the conferences in the quarter, it was all Mexico and Canada than we saw this Chinese issue with the rate. It was a little bit of a surprise to say the least. As I mentioned in the commentary where we have the exposure, we're out in the market with pricing presently. There's a little bit of a lag effect depending on where we are from an inventory position, but yeah, we're going to -- we'll cover that largely with price.

是的。我認為，當我們在本季召開所有會議時，我們看到的都是墨西哥和加拿大的問題，而不是中國的利率問題。至少可以說有點令人驚訝。正如我在評論中提到的那樣，我們目前已在市場上定價。根據我們的庫存狀況，可能會有一點滯後效應，但是是的，我們將——主要透過價格來解決這個問題。

But back to what I said at the end in terms of competitive positioning, there are instances where we believe that we're advantaged like meaning that a smaller proportionality of our bill of materials is subject to tariffs. And in cases like that, we will take advantage of the cost position that we have vis-a-vis some of our competitors that have been importing built-up units.

但回到我最後所說的競爭定位方面，有些情況下我們認為我們有優勢，例如我們的物料清單中較小比例的部分需要繳納關稅。在這種情況下，我們將利用相對於一些進口成品設備的競爭對手所具有的成本優勢。

So the -- if you take a look at the chart on 10, I mean, other than China, that's the big number. And of that big number, $60 million on one particular product line. And that product line, you can see in our first-quarter results, we've been a little bit careful. And that's why the volume is down because we wanted to get the pricing out there. So I know the question is going to come in the Q&A here, well, while you're taking revenue down if all the pricing is coming through, as I mentioned before.

所以——如果你看一下 10 的圖表，我的意思是，除了中國以外，這個數字都很大。其中，有 6000 萬美元用於某條特定的產品線。您可以在我們第一季的業績中看到，對於該產品線，我們一直比較謹慎。這就是為什麼銷售量下降的原因，因為我們想把價格公佈。所以我知道這個問題會出現在問答環節，好吧，如果所有的定價都通過了，你的收入就會下降，就像我之前提到的那樣。

I mean, the risk here is not price/cost. I think that we've got tailwinds on mix, and I think that we're on the front foot in terms of getting the price out there. It's really -- it's volume, right? And it's volume in the second half, and I think that -- look, I did it. It's not in our forecast, and it's not built in a spreadsheet. I basically said let's clip off about 1% because we're probably going to have project drift because of all the delay that we've seen around these tariffs.

我的意思是，這裡的風險不是價格/成本。我認為我們在混合方面處於順風狀態，我認為我們在獲得價格方面處於領先地位。這確實是——是音量，對吧？這是下半場的音量，我認為──看，我做到了。它不在我們的預測中，也沒有在電子表格中建立。我基本上是說讓我們削減大約 1%，因為我們可能會因為這些關稅所導致的所有延遲而出現項目偏差。

And then just -- and understood. Thanks for clarifying that. And then just to kind of pick up then as you'd mentioned kind of on the conference circuit, right, through January and February, things seem to be progressing better. It sounded like March was okay or maybe better than okay given the book-to-bills, but maybe just kind of talk about how you exited the quarter. And did you see any sort of behavior change anywhere from your customer base kind of post the April 2 announcements?

然後就——明白了。感謝您澄清這一點。然後就像您在會議巡迴中提到的那樣，到一月和二月，事情似乎進展得更好。聽起來三月的訂單出貨比還不錯，或者甚至比還好，但也許只是談論一下你如何結束這個季度。在 4 月 2 日發佈公告後，您是否發現客戶群的行為發生了任何變化？

Yeah, I mean, look, the incremental margin in the quarter was phenomenal. And I guess, I think I would argue we probably outperformed a little bit there because the margin mix was so healthy. Yeah, the order rates, I think -- like you talk to clients -- like I said before, I mean, this view of, yeah, we want to do the projects, but where everybody is kind of getting nervous a little bit, and there's a little bit of a drift there to say. But in terms of our order rates and our shipment rates, we actually accelerated through the quarter.

是的，我的意思是，看，本季的增量利潤是驚人的。我想，我認為我們可能會表現得更好一些，因為利潤率組合非常健康。是的，訂單率，我認為——就像你和客戶談話一樣——就像我之前說的，我的意思是，從這個角度來說，是的，我們想做項目，但是每個人都有點緊張，而且有一點偏差。但就我們的訂單率和出貨率而言，我們本季實際上有所加速。

So like I said, that's why I'm making it -- it's a sentiment adjustment, I'm making not tangible data of customers saying, yeah, I was going to probably want in Q2, but now I want it in Q3, that type of thing. Our Q2, based on our backlog, should be right on what our forecasts were going through Q1.

所以就像我說的，這就是我這樣做的原因——這是一種情緒調整，我正在製作客戶的無形數據，說，是的，我可能想要在第二季度實現，但現在我想在第三季度實現，諸如此類的事情。根據我們的積壓訂單，我們的第二季應該與我們對第一季的預測一致。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

Yeah. Thanks so much. So just a question about bookings. You've highlighted six consecutive quarters of year-over-year bookings growth. But second-quarter comp is tougher, and I do appreciate that on a two-year stack, it's maybe not as tough. But how should we think about just sustainability of bookings growth? And I do appreciate that there may be an air pocket of bookings related to tariffs. But maybe near term, how do you see that?

是的。非常感謝。所以這只是一個關於預訂的問題。您強調了連續六個季度的同比增長。但第二季的競爭更加激烈，而且我確實認為，從兩年的時間來衡量，競爭可能沒那麼激烈。但是，我們該如何看待預訂量成長的可持續性呢？我確實意識到可能存在與關稅相關的預訂空頭。但也許短期內如此，您如何看待這種情況？

I would expect to be over one for Q2. That's my expectation right now. And look, we get crazy about this. Bookings are a little bit lumpy sometimes. And a lot of it is predicated on what happens in the last week of the quarter. So I wouldn't flip out if somebody goes below one.

我預計第二季的數字將超過 1。這就是我現在的期望。瞧，我們對此很瘋狂。有時預訂量會有點不穩定。其中很多都取決於本季最後一周發生的情況。因此，如果有人低於 1，我不會發瘋。

But right now, based on the momentum that we have on bookings going into the quarter and what we know we're quoting on and stacking up there, it should be okay by the time we get to the end of Q2. But like I said, that's -- we're going to see if we can plow through negative sentiment over the next -- how many days we have left here? 65 or 68 days left in the quarter.

但目前，根據我們進入本季的預訂勢頭以及我們所知道的報價和堆積情況，到第二季末，情況應該會好起來。但就像我說的，那是——我們將看看我們是否能在接下來的時間內克服負面情緒——我們還剩下多少天？本季還剩 65 或 68 天。

Got you. And as we think about just sort of your -- just pure math on removing percentage point of volume, but then also EPS impact. If you put it together with the beat, we sort of get decrementals on revenue sort of around 40%. And obviously, then there is FX cushion. So it's just -- should we just think it as sort of margin of safety that you've built in to forecast? Or are there sort of signs to this 40% decremental number? More precise signs. Okay.

明白了。當我們考慮你的——只是純粹的數學運算，去除交易量的百分點，然後還有每股收益的影響。如果將其與節拍結合起來，我們的收入就會減少 40% 左右。顯然，還有 FX 緩衝。所以這只是——我們是否應該將其視為您在預測中建立的一種安全邊際？或者說這個 40% 的遞減數字有什麼跡象嗎？更精確的跡象。好的。

There's not signs to it. It was not -- it was mechanical in nature, and it was basically $100 million revenue at 38% margin or something like that.

沒有任何跡象表明這一點。它不是——它本質上是機械的，它基本上是 1 億美元的收入，利潤率為 38% 或類似的數字。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

Hey, good morning, guys, and welcome, Chris, to the call.

嘿，大家早上好，歡迎克里斯參加電話會議。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Rich, the other kind of second derivative of all this chaos is potentially M&A valuations getting a bit lower. Is that something you're kind of -- I mean, it's probably a little too early to say you're seeing signs of it, but is it something you're anticipating?

里奇，所有這些混亂的另一個後果是併購估值可能會略微下降。這是你所期待的事嗎？我的意思是，現在說你看到了跡象可能還為時過早，但這是你預料到的事情嗎？

Well, we've only had one meaningful transaction in multi world, and the valuation was pretty robust at the end of the day. I can tell you anecdotally that I'm aware of a few processes that have been pulled because of uncertainty. So -- and maybe we're going to have to wait until we get a little clarity on the tariff tumults and then we'll see when assets come back and the like.

嗯，我們在多世界中只進行過一次有意義的交易，而且最終的估值相當穩健。我可以告訴你一些趣聞，我知道有些流程因為不確定性而被取消。所以——也許我們必須等到關稅風波有了一點明朗之後，才能看到資產何時回升等等。

I will tell you for ourselves, we're working on a bunch of stuff. A lot of it is proprietary. So it's not in kind of like the public domain of kind of whisper stuff out there.

我會告訴你，我們正在做很多事情。其中很多都是專有的。因此，它並不屬於公共領域的秘密。

Will valuations come down? I guess so. But not from what we've seen, but we've got such a limited amount of data so far that it's hard to tell.

估值會下降嗎？大概吧。但從我們所看到的情況來看並非如此，因為到目前為止我們獲得的數據非常有限，所以很難判斷。

Yeah. That doesn't surprise me. Hey, not to climb out of minutia here, but would you be willing to share the actual growth rate in the thermal connectors that you had in the quarter?

是的。這並不令我驚訝。嘿，我不想在這裡討論細節，但是您願意分享本季熱連接器的實際成長率嗎？

I think that we said it was up 50%, I think, something like that.

我認為我們說過它上漲了 50%，我想，大概是這個數字。

[Whatever. It's over 100%].

【隨便啦，已經超過100%了。 】

You did say that? Okay. All right.

你確實這麼說過嗎？好的。好的。

Oh, excuse me, it was over 100%. Comparative growth, not sequentially. That would be comparative.

哦，不好意思，已經超過 100% 了。比較成長，而非連續成長。這將是比較性的。

Okay. That’s a big number. All right. I’ll pass it on. Thank you, guys. Good luck.

好的。這是一個很大的數字。好的。我會傳達它。謝謝你們。祝你好運。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Good morning.

早安.

Hi.

你好。

Do you -- can you opine on like what your second-quarter internal plan roughly looks like?

您能否大致談談您第二季的內部計劃是什麼樣的？

No. It's embedded in our full-year guidance.

不。它已包含在我們的全年指導中。

Does it look like it's around consensus?

看起來是達成共識了嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Okay. And then just on the -- on your kind of tariff mitigation, I mean, everybody is kind of giving a little bit of color on the split of what they're planning to do. I mean, should we think about it as -- first of all, how much of a hit will it be in the near term? And then I assume you're going to kind of work through it in the third and the fourth quarter. And then how much of that is price and how much is kind of these mitigation activities?

好的。然後就你們的關稅減免問題而言，我的意思是，每個人都在對他們計劃採取的措施的分歧做出一些說明。我的意思是，我們是否應該這樣考慮──首先，它在短期內會造成多大的打擊？然後我假設你會在第三季和第四季解決這個問題。那麼其中有多少是價格，有多少是這些緩解活動的費用？

Okay. Well, look, clearly, if we put all the regions into the manageable category with the exception of Chinese imports, just if you look at the quantum on the slide, that we can make up a variety of different ways, whether it's productivity or price or hopefully both. On the China one, we will make up largely in price, but I will tell you that we are aggressively negotiating with our suppliers in China about what the split is.

好的。好吧，很明顯，如果我們把中國進口之外的所有地區都納入可管理的類別，只要你看一下幻燈片上的量子，我們就可以用各種不同的方式彌補，無論是生產力還是價格，或者兩者兼而有之。就中國市場而言，我們將主要在價格上彌補，但我要告訴你，我們正在積極與中國供應商就分成比例進行談判。

So a couple of things. I get that the percentage tariff rate right now is extremely high. I don't believe that that is going to last for the balance of the year. So this is just math, number one. And number two, like I said there, whether we take the full brunt of the tariffs or not, that's up to our negotiations between what little bit of supply base that we have in China left and our vendors and ourselves. And I can tell you that anecdotally, at worst, we will share it.

有幾件事。我知道現在的關稅稅率非常高。我不相信這種情況會持續到今年年底。所以這只是數學，第一。第二，就像我說的，我們是否承擔全部關稅，取決於我們在中國剩下的少量供應基地、我們的供應商和我們自己之間的談判。我可以告訴你，根據傳聞，最糟的情況是，我們會分享它。

Okay. And then just one last one. You said it was kind of like a top-down approach. I mean, $0.10 is kind of a rounding error in the end. How did you -- what is your macro assumption to a degree? Like, why not $0.20? Why not $0.30? Like, what is your -- I'm just trying to get a gauge of how well you can manage in the context of like a downside economic scenario? Like what are you actually thinking from a top down? Or was it just like, hey, you know what, $0.10, let's just strip it out.

好的。最後再說一句。您說這有點像是自上而下的方法。我的意思是，0.10 美元最終是一種舍入誤差。您是如何做到的—您的宏觀假設是什麼？例如，為什麼不是 0.20 美元？為什麼不是 0.30 美元？例如，你的——我只是想衡量一下在經濟狀況不佳的情況下你能管理得如何？例如，從上到下，你實際上在想什麼？或者就像，嘿，你知道嗎，0.10 美元，我們把它去掉。

Yeah, it was mechanical at the end of the day. And like I said in the commentary, what I could have done, I could have given you abridge and then rerun FX and said, damn the torpedoes, we're holding guidance for the year. I don't know of what the derivative of the demand environment is going to be in the second half. So basically, it wasn't like we ran Q3 into Q4 forecast into these types of scenarios. I just basically clipped it right off the top.

是的，從根本上來說，這是機械的。就像我在評論中所說的那樣，我本來可以做的是，給你一個摘要，然後重新播放 FX 並說，該死的魚雷，我們保留了今年的指導。我不知道下半年需求環境的衍生情況會是如何。所以基本上，我們並沒有將第三季到第四季的預測應用到這些類型的情境中。我基本上只是把它從頂部剪掉了。

Now do I have a variety of different measures baked in there? Sure. Is all the pricing that we've assumed, the incremental pricing, is that assumed in our forecast right now? No, right, so to the extent that it sticks and volume remains where we think it's going to be, that's upside and I'll beat the FX thing to death.

現在我是否已經制定了多種不同的措施？當然。我們假設的所有定價，增量定價，都是我們現在預測中假設的嗎？不，對的，所以只要它能堅持下去並且交易量保持在我們認為的水平，那就是好處，我會把外匯這件事搞砸。

I'd tell you that Q1 corporate costs were high. We don't expect that to repeat over the balance of the year. So there's a variety of different items that we have. What I can say is, I think, what we've proven in the past is in a downside scenario, we can flex our cost base relatively quickly.

我想告訴你，第一季的企業成本很高。我們預計今年餘下時間不會再出現這種情況。我們有各種不同的物品。我可以說的是，我認為，我們過去已經證明，在不利的情況下，我們可以相對快速地調整我們的成本基礎。

Got it. I won't ask about the torpedo reference. But thanks a lot.

知道了。我不會詢問有關魚雷的參考資訊。但非常感謝。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi. Good morning. Maybe I just wanted to push you a little bit, Rich, on the organic sales assumption because I understand you've taken a more cautious view, but you're not seeing anything yet that's concerning from customers. But in the first quarter, your organic sales were up overall around a point, and the full year is guided at the midpoint up three.

你好。早安.里奇，也許我只是想在有機銷售假設方面給你一點提示，因為我知道你採取了更為謹慎的看法，但你還沒有看到任何令客戶擔憂的事情。但在第一季度，你們的有機銷售額總體上漲了約一個點，預計全年銷售額將上漲三個點。

So I understand you've sort of lowered the original assumption for organic sales growth for the year. But it's still an acceleration versus the first quarter. So maybe help us understand, which businesses you're most confident in, will see that step up in growth, please?

因此，我知道您已經降低了今年有機銷售成長的原始假設。但與第一季相比仍呈現加速成長態勢。那麼請幫助我們了解一下，您對哪些業務最有信心，哪些業務將實現成長？

Well, yeah, Julian, as you know, if you go back and look at the seasonality of our portfolio, we tend to be relatively low growth and build inventory in Q1 and then step it up in Q2 and Q3. And then Q4 is always a little bit depending on what our view is about the following year, whether we run production performance. So you've heard that speech before. So seasonality says that we should jump in Q2.

嗯，是的，朱利安，如你所知，如果你回顧一下我們投資組合的季節性，我們往往增長相對較低，並在第一季度建立庫存，然後在第二季度和第三季度加大庫存。然後，第四季總是有點取決於我們對明年的看法，以及我們是否能實現生產績效。您以前聽過這個演講。因此季節性表明我們應該在第二季採取行動。

Like I said, Q2 from a backlog perspective, we can see it. So unless we start getting cancellations around here, I think that we're confident in terms of what the step-up is in Q2. We'll watch order rates going through Q2, which would give us clarity on the top line for Q3, but it's a little bit early to tell.

就像我說的，從積壓訂單的角度來看，我們可以看到第二季的情況。因此，除非我們開始收到取消訂單的通知，否則我認為我們對第二季的成長充滿信心。我們將關注第二季的訂單率，這將使我們清楚了解第三季的營收情況，但現在下結論還為時過早。

I don't even think we have even anecdotal data yet in -- as we get -- as we're in Q2 right now, but I'm not hearing anybody squealing that their order rates are falling off a cliff. So we feel really good about Q2 because of the backlog, so that would support what our assumptions were for Q2. So basically, what I did was trim off the back end of the year just because we need to see -- get some visibility.

我什至不認為我們現在已經獲得了軼事數據——因為我們現在處於第二季度，但我沒有聽到任何人抱怨他們的訂單率正在急劇下降。因此，由於積壓訂單，我們對第二季感到非常滿意，這將支持我們對第二季的假設。所以基本上，我所做的就是削減年底的支出，因為我們需要看到——獲得一些可見性。

That’s helpful. Thank you. And then just a second question on the operating margins and the tariffs. So just to understand, is the main assumption that the net dollar tariff effect for the full year is around zero? And just if that's a firm-wide number, is there any aspect whereby you may be a negative in a given quarter? And any color on which segment you think might have the biggest tariff risk?

這很有幫助。謝謝。然後是關於營業利潤率和關稅的第二個問題。那麼，請理解一下，主要的假設是不是全年淨美元關稅效應約為零？如果這是整個公司的數字，那麼在某個季度中是否存在可能出現負值的情況？您認為哪種顏色的關稅風險最大？

How do I want to respond to that? Okay. I understand what you're saying, right? If we were net neutral for pricing and tariff costs, it's dilutive to margins. But that has an underlying assumption of -- first of all, if you look at those numbers and you back out that the Chinese number is a full-year number, we've already got a quarter under our belt that didn't exist, and we don't expect it to last for the balance of the year.

我該如何回應呢？好的。我明白你的意思，對吧？如果我們對定價和關稅成本保持中立，那麼利潤率就會被稀釋。但這有一個潛在的假設——首先，如果你看一下這些數字，然後你會發現中國的數字是全年數字，我們已經經歷了一個不存在的一個季度，我們預計這種情況不會持續到今年年底。

What are we talking about here at the end of the day in terms of if that was the scenario. To me, that gets eaten up in mix in every segment, maybe with the exception of Markem-Imaje, which is relatively easy to calculate at the end of the day. So I'm not -- if any kind of movement in margin is going to be on intra-segment mix far more price cost because of tariff.

如果情況確實如此，那麼我們最終要討論的是什麼呢？對我來說，這在每個細分市場中都會被消耗掉，也許除了 Markem-Imaje，因為到最後計算起來相對容易。所以我不會——如果利潤率有任何變動，那麼由於關稅，內部細分市場的價格成本將會大幅增加。

That's great. Thank you.

那太棒了。謝謝。

Michael Halloran, Baird.

麥可·哈洛倫，貝爾德。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

So could you just give any thought process on if you're seeing any difference between your OpEx, steady-state consumable-type businesses, versus more of your CapEx longer cycle type pieces in terms of orders or commentary from customers at this point?

那麼，您能否思考一下，就目前的訂單或客戶評論而言，您是否看到您的營運支出、穩定狀態消耗型業務與更多的資本支出較長週期型業務之間存在任何差異？

Yeah. I mean, the CapEx ones are the ones we're keeping a close eye on, right? So the volume churn, maybe that's not the right word, on kind of the flow businesses, we just watch that on a daily basis, and then we just take a look at it. The ones that we really got to keep a look on is our customers' CapEx projects that we are a precursor or a component supplier into it.

是的。我的意思是，我們密切關注的是資本支出，對嗎？因此，對於流量業務而言，交易量流失（也許這不是正確的詞）我們只是每天觀察它，然後對其進行查看。我們真正需要關注的是客戶的資本支出項目，我們是該項目的先驅或零件供應商。

And that's where the concern is. Is everybody just going to keep going along? Or are we going to run into a situation of -- I'm worried about the macro and I want to see some clarity and the things get delayed a little bit.

這就是令人擔憂的地方。每個人都會繼續這樣下去嗎？或者我們會遇到這樣的情況——我擔心宏觀問題，我想看到一些清晰的認識，但事情卻被稍微推遲了。

So that's the part that we're working on the most. And that's really the reason that we gave a little bit of a haircut to the total volume for the year because if you get another month or so of drift, you're not going to be able to make it up in the balance of year. So clearly, right now, the flow portion of the business is going well, but we'll keep an eye on it. It's the one that we really got to pay attention to is customer CapEx, where we're a supplier into that.

這是我們最努力的部分。這就是我們對全年總量進行小幅削減的真正原因，因為如果再出現一個月左右的偏差，那麼你將無法在全年餘額中彌補。顯然，目前業務的流動部分進展順利，但我們會密切關注。我們真正需要關注的是客戶的資本支出，我們是這方面的供應商。

And is the implication there is that you're seeing a little bit of drift in the CapEx piece or you just worried that the drift will come?

這是否意味著您看到資本支出部分出現了一些偏差，或者您只是擔心會出現偏差？

I'm worried, right? I can't see it in the order rates, right? So we just have anecdotal conversations with all of our business leaders that are talking to these customers of -- and all the customers are saying, no, not everything is on path, everything is on path. But experience says when you get into a situation like this, could you get some drift? Sure, right? Is it going to be meaningful over the long term? It's irrelevant at the end of the day, but we're just trying to be prudent.

我很擔心，對吧？我在訂單費率中看不到它，對嗎？因此，我們只是與所有與這些客戶交談的業務領導人進行了軼事對話 - 所有客戶都說，不，並不是一切都在按計劃進行，一切都在按計劃進行。但經驗告訴我們，當你陷入這種情況時，你能有所轉變嗎？當然可以，對吧？從長遠來看這有意義嗎？歸根究底這無關緊要，但我們只是想謹慎行事。

Yeah, no. Makes sense. And then just on the inventory side of things, how would you characterize your inventory and then your content in the channel and how would you characterize that inventory level?

是的，不。有道理。然後就庫存方面而言，您如何描述您的庫存以及頻道中的內容以及如何描述庫存水準？

I think we did a great job on inventory. We actually have more inventory than we would like, but I think we are on the front foot of bringing in a bunch of inventory either because of issues around tariffs or buying forward because metal pricing was quite good for us in Q4. So we basically had our businesses postured going into this year of let's stack up on some inventory because if demand is good and we get the top line of 5%, let's make sure that we're able to work the supply chains and everything else because we know we can bleed it off in the back half of the year anyway.

我認為我們在庫存方面做得很好。我們的庫存實際上比我們希望的要多，但我認為我們正處於引入大量庫存的前沿，這要么是因為關稅問題，要么是因為第四季度的金屬價格對我們來說相當有利，所以我們提前購買。因此，我們基本上已經做好了今年的業務準備，讓我們囤積一些庫存，因為如果需求良好並且我們獲得 5% 的最高利潤，讓我們確保我們能夠運作供應鏈和其他一切，因為我們知道我們可以在下半年將其消耗掉。

So right now, with the one exception on the structural steel around Vehicle Services Group, which we will take our time because it may be prudent to wait to see if we get a tariff settlement and then just catch up on the volume in the back end of the year, that's the only one I can think of where we're being careful around tariffs as it relates to inventory.

因此，目前，除了車輛服務集團的結構鋼這一例外，我們將不慌不忙，因為明智的做法是等待，看看我們是否能得到關稅結算，然後在年底趕上產量，這是我能想到的唯一一個我們在與庫存相關的關稅方面保持謹慎的地方。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

Thanks. Good morning. So look, in the spirit of sweating the small stuff here, if we look at the top-line guide, the point cut to the top line, if we decompose that between price and volume, is there like a two-point cut to volumes and maybe a point higher price to offset the tariffs? And then if we then take that thought a little bit further, would that mean maybe a three- to four-point cut to the volumes in the back half of the year? Just trying to judge how conservative the opposition in the back half of the year.

謝謝。早安.所以，看，本著關注細節的精神，如果我們看一下頂線指南，頂線的切入點，如果我們將其分解為價格和數量，是否有像兩個點的削減量和可能更高的價格來抵消關稅？然後，如果我們進一步思考一下，這是否意味著下半年的銷售量可能會減少三到四個百分點？只是想判斷下半年反對派的保守程度。

Hi. Nigel, I don't know, right? Like I said, it's a mechanical adjustment. It's not a spreadsheet where we basically said, let's see all the price increases. And then on static volume, it is more or less let's just take 1% off at current conversion margin and be done with it. I can't predict mix from a portfolio that's diverse over the next three quarters and split it between price and volume.

你好。奈傑爾，我不知道，對吧？正如我所說的，這是一個機械調整。這不是一個電子表格，我們基本上不會在其中說，讓我們看看所有的價格上漲。然後，就靜態交易量而言，我們或多或少只需在當前轉換利潤率上扣除 1% 即可。我無法預測未來三個季度多元化投資組合的組成，也無法將其分為價格和數量。

If volume stays at what we thought it was going to be going into the year and we get price, right, then clearly, that's some upside. But getting all this prices, that's going to have a detriment on volume and who knows at this point, right?

如果交易量保持在我們預期的水平，而且價格上漲，那麼顯然，這是一個好處。但得到所有這些價格，都會對銷量產生損害，誰知道呢，對吧？

So I think that we need to get through another quarter here and maybe get some clarity of where we are on this tariff tumult, and then we can start breaking this down into individual cells on the spreadsheet, but it's inclination rather than some mathematical adjustment.

因此，我認為我們需要再度過一個季度，也許可以更清楚地了解我們在這場關稅風波中所處的位置，然後我們可以開始將其分解到電子表格上的單個單元格中，但這是一種傾向，而不是某種數學調整。

Okay. No. That's very clear. Thanks, Rich. And then just a couple of quick ones. PPS margins obviously were great. Normally, 1Q was the low point. I realize mix is an issue, but would you expect 1Q to be the low point for PPS? And then did we detect a glimmer of hope in European heat pumps? Just any thoughts there.

好的。不。這非常清楚。謝謝，里奇。然後只是幾個簡短的問題。PPS 利潤率顯然很高。通常，第一季是最低點。我意識到混合是一個問題，但您是否認為第一季將是 PPS 的低點？那麼，我們是否在歐洲熱泵中看到了一線希望呢？只是任何想法而已。

Yeah. It's a glimmer of hope. So sequentially up -- if you remember, our orders were up in Q4 on heat pumps. I mean, albeit off a pretty low base. So European heat pumps has outperformed our internal forecast for the last two quarters. So we'll take it as good news there, now that's being augmented by that brazed plate heat exchangers, goes into a variety of different applications. But yes, we were seeing orders, which is good news, because that means that the inventory in the system has been largely depleted at this point. What was the first question?

是的。這是一線希望。因此，如果您還記得的話，我們的熱泵訂單在第四季度有所增加。我的意思是，儘管基礎很低。因此，歐洲熱泵在過去兩個季度的表現超出了我們的內部預測。因此，我們認為這是一個好消息，現在釬焊板式熱交換器的應用範圍正在擴大，可以用於各種不同的應用。但是的，我們看到了訂單，這是好消息，因為這意味著系統中的庫存此時已基本耗盡。第一個問題是什麼？

The PPS margins.

PPS 利潤率。

PPS margins, we're going to be careful with that because Maag was down because it had a bad comp. So as Maag and DPC come up, they're great margin businesses, but they're dilutive to that. So I think I'd be a little careful about whether that thing keeps going up. I hope it does, but you do have a mix effect on the balance of the portfolio, so you have to be a little bit careful.

PPS 利潤率，我們會對此保持謹慎，因為 Maag 的表現因競爭激烈而下滑。因此，隨著 Maag 和 DPC 的出現，它們的利潤率很高，但它們會稀釋利潤。所以我想我會對這個東西是否會繼續上漲保持謹慎。我希望如此，但這確實會對投資組合的平衡產生混合影響，因此你必須要小心一點。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞。

Hi. Good morning. Can you just expand on the proximity manufacturer considerations here, where in the business you would have some of the bigger advantages? Any positions where you would view yourself as being a little bit disadvantaged?

你好。早安.您能否詳細說明鄰近製造商的考慮因素，在哪些業務中您會擁有一些更大的優勢？您認為自己在哪些職位上處於稍微不利的地位？

Not without giving out a lot of proprietary information about our view of the competitive stack by business. I can just tell you that we have competitors that import fully built up units of products that compete with us where we manufacture in the United States and maybe have subcomponents that are imported. But as a percentage of the bill of materials, it's significantly lower.

我們不難洩漏出大量有關我們對企業競爭格局的看法的專有資訊。我可以告訴你，我們的競爭對手進口完整的產品單元與我們競爭，而我們在美國生產，並且可能進口子部件。但作為物料清單的百分比，它要低得多。

So we're on the lookout to take advantage of that, and that will all be around pricing, right? Because everybody is going to grow out a bunch of pricing and the signaling and then you're going to max then you're going to start doing the calculations between market share gains and price/cost and a variety of things like that. So we do that work every year around here. So when things like this happened or when it happened back in 2020, we have different strategies by business relative to the cost basis of their competitors.

因此，我們正在尋求利用這一點，而這一切都與定價有關，對嗎？因為每個人都會制定一系列的定價和訊號，然後你會達到最大化，然後你會開始計算市場份額的成長和價格/成本之間的各種關係，諸如此類的事情。所以我們每年都在這裡做這項工作。因此，當類似事件發生時，或當它在 2020 年再次發生時，我們會根據競爭對手的成本基礎制定不同的業務策略。

And then on vehicle lift, just to expand on that dynamic a little bit to try to understand how much is -- you're managing the timing of demand for moves in the manufacturing base versus underlying CapEx demand trends where there's a little bit of a pause, it doesn't sound like you're seeing much pause in the businesses. But just trying to understand how you're managing the timing.

然後關於車輛升降，稍微擴展一下這種動態，試圖了解一下 - 你正在管理製造基地移動需求的時間與潛在的資本支出需求趨勢，其中有一點停頓，聽起來你並沒有看到業務出現太多停頓。但只是想了解你是如何管理時間的。

Yeah. If you remember how this whole tariff thing lifted off, it was all around auto and all around NAFTA and auto is the one that bore the brunt of it, number one. And number two, we had big discussions. It seems like a long time ago, it was probably like 60 days ago about the consumer and inflation on the consumer. And this is a particular product that unlike the vast majority of our portfolio that has got auto and consumer exposure.

是的。如果你還記得整個關稅事件是如何開始的，它完全是圍繞著汽車和北美自由貿易協定展開的，而汽車是首當其衝受到衝擊的。第二，我們進行了深入的討論。這似乎是很久以前的事了，大概是 60 天前關於消費者和消費者通貨膨脹的事情。這是一種特殊的產品，與我們投資組合中的絕大多數產品不同，它具有汽車和消費者曝光度。

So you would expect the reaction there to be the quickest and we've seen that in terms of volume. And coupled on that now, we've got -- it happens to be the one business that we have that's got a higher exposure in terms of imported components, particularly from China. So some of that is market and some of that is self-inflicted from a timing point of view. We put a bunch of pricing out there and we'll see what happens in terms of demand or end price/cost going forward in the year.

因此，你會期望那裡的反應是最快的，而且我們已經從數量上看到了這一點。現在，再加上這一點，我們恰好是唯一一家在進口零件方面，特別是來自中國的零件方面有較高曝光率的企業。因此，從時間角度來看，有些是市場因素，有些是自身原因造成的。我們公佈了一系列價格，並觀察今年未來需求或最終價格/成本的情況。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Hey, good morning, guys. So I know you don't want to give us a 2Q guide, but let me just kind of ask a question on organic growth because it is the one quarter that you guys have a great deal of visibility on. So is it fair to say that the growth rate you're expecting at this point in 2Q would be above the 2% to 4% range for the year?

嘿，大家早安。所以我知道你不想給我們第二季的指導，但請容許我問一個關於有機成長的問題，因為這是你們非常關注的一個季度。那麼，您預計第二季的成長率將高於全年的 2% 至 4% 的範圍，這樣說公平嗎？

No. I don't think so.

不。我不這麼認為。

Okay. But within the range or not?

好的。但是否在範圍內？

Yeah.

是的。

Okay. And then I wanted to just ask the question. I know we don't usually spend a lot of time on DII. But I think I heard you say that you expect it to be the greatest margin expansion story from the segment perspective this year. Just talk us through some of the structural cost actions that are occurring in the business and maybe what the ballpark expectations are for margins this year.

好的。然後我只想問這個問題。我知道我們通常不會在 DII 上花費太多時間。但我想我聽到您說過，您預計這將是今年從細分市場角度來看最大的利潤擴張故事。請向我們介紹一下公司業務中正在發生的一些結構性成本行動，以及今年的利潤率大致預期是多少。

Let me answer the DII question. That's not where we expect the largest margin expansion. That would be in clean energy and fueling, where we expect the largest absolute margin expansion from a year-over-year point of view.

讓我來回答 DII 問題。這並不是我們預期利潤率最大擴張的地方。那將是清潔能源和燃料領域，我們預計從同比角度來看，這兩個領域的絕對利潤率將出現最大成長。

Now DII on the other hand, if you go back and look historically in terms of the margin, I would -- I'm doing this out of my head, but it almost seems like it's about 100 to 125 basis points of margin expansion per year over the last five years, if you strip out kind of COVID year where it's all over the place. So not to take away anything from the management team of DII, which has done a fantastic job in terms of their cost to serve on relatively lower single-digit volume growth that the absolute profit or cash flow generated, but that business has been exemplary.

另一方面，如果回顧 DII 的歷史利潤率，我會 — — 我是憑空想像這樣做的，但如果剔除 COVID 年份，利潤率幾乎每年擴大 100 到 125 個基點，那麼在過去五年中，如果剔除 COVID 年份，利潤率每年擴大 100 到 125 個基點，那一年利潤率到處都是。因此，我們不要貶低 DII 的管理團隊，他們在服務成本方面做得非常出色，絕對利潤或現金流量產生的銷售成長相對較低，但這項業務堪稱典範。

On the clean energy side, that's where we've done the restructuring in the prior year. So you've got the roll forward. What we tried to signal here on that slide about our CapEx projects, we told you that we're doing a bunch of acquisitions and that we were going to begin to intervene on the footprint in 2025. We're ready to get that all kicked off. And as we kick it off largely in the back half of the year, we'll give you the restructuring charges and we'll give you the roll forward benefit going into '26.

在清潔能源方面，我們在前一年進行了重組。這樣你就能夠繼續前進了。我們試圖在這張投影片上表明我們的資本支出項目，我們告訴你們，我們正在進行一系列收購，我們將在 2025 年開始乾預足跡。我們已準備好開始這一切。由於我們將在今年下半年開始實施這項計劃，因此我們將向您提供重組費用，並為您提供進入 26 年的滾動福利。

So it's a combination of volume that we're getting. We got a really healthy mix as opposed to the previous year in that segment. And then you've got roll forward restructuring benefit this year. And another set of roll forward coming for next year. We're going to get that business to 25% EBITDA margin.

所以這是我們得到的體積的組合。與去年相比，我們在該領域的組合確實非常健康。然後你今年就獲得了重組福利。明年還將推出另一套向前滾動的產品。我們將使該業務的 EBITDA 利潤率達到 25%。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

花旗集團的安迪‧卡普洛維茲 (Andy Kaplowitz)。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Hi.

你好。

Rich, just following up on DPPS, you mentioned a tough comp at margin Q1 and Pumps and Process still put up 7% revenue growth on over 30% margin. So I think given my comps get easier now in Q2, does Pumps and Process potentially continue to accelerate here?

Rich，剛才您提到了 DPPS 的情況，第一季的利潤率比較艱難，而泵浦和製程業務的營收仍成長了 7%，利潤率超過 30%。因此我認為，鑑於我的公司在第二季的業績變得更容易，泵浦和製程是否有可能繼續加速發展？

And I think you said in the recent past that biopharma was trending up higher than your low teens forecast for '25. I think today you talked about thermo connectors up triple digits. Are those businesses going to continue to run hotter for the rest of the year you think?

我認為您最近說過，生物製藥業的趨勢比您對 25 年的預測要高。我認為今天您討論的熱連接器已經達到三位數。您認為這些業務在今年剩餘時間內還會繼續保持旺盛的勢頭嗎？

Not at the rates that it's going at. I mean, we're kind of in the liftoff phase. It's going to -- look, if we can post 35% operating margins and 7% growth for the balance of the year, would be a fantastic result. I think that just the compounding effect of that growth just gets tougher and tougher, and you run into market limitations and capacity limitations of the market at the end of the day. I think that we're really, really (technical difficulty) and the gain on share of those particular product lines in the two sides. But I don't think -- let's not overlay something that's not realistic in terms of an acceleration from here.

照現在的速度還不行。我的意思是，我們正處於起飛階段。瞧，如果我們能夠實現今年餘下的 35% 的營業利潤率和 7% 的成長率，那將是一個非常棒的結果。我認為這種成長的複合效應會變得越來越嚴峻，最終你會遇到市場限制和市場容量限制。我認為我們確實存在（技術困難）並且雙方特定產品線的份額增加。但我不認為——我們不應該從現在開始疊加一些不切實際的加速因素。

It's helpful. And maybe just looking a little more closely at DCEF because I think in the recent past, you've mentioned you expect your cryo-related businesses not [having] to grow double-digits. What are you seeing there? I know you -- you're forecasting mid-single digit for the year. Last quarter, you started at 2%. That's obviously not bad. But is there anything holding that business down on the revenue?

這很有幫助。也許只是更仔細地觀察一下 DCEF，因為我認為在最近，您曾提到您預計您的低溫相關業務不必實現兩位數成長。你在那裡看到了什麼？我知道你——你預測今年的經濟成長將達到個位數的中段。上個季度，你的起始利率為 2%。這顯然還不錯。但是有什麼因素會抑制該業務的收入嗎？

Yeah, that's got a lot of -- that's got a flow portion of the business. And then it's got a project related portion of the business. The flow part of the business is doing well when we talk about like the cryogenic component side of it, and then you've got project side, right? And on project side is the whole retail fueling side is project related, which were -- we did terrifically, which drove the margin in Q1.

是的，這涉及很多內容——這涉及業務的流動部分。然後它就有了與專案相關的業務部分。當我們談論低溫組件方面時，業務的流動部分做得很好，然後您就談到了專案方面，對嗎？在專案方面，整個零售加油方面都與專案相關，我們做得非常出色，這推動了第一季的利潤率。

We expect that to kind of go through, but we have to be a little bit cautious on the project side, because that goes into -- that's customer CapEx at the end of the day and we're trying to get some clarity on where we go from there. But the setup itself in terms of the margin mix of where the demand is coming from and the structural cost takeout makes us feel pretty good no matter what the back-half dynamic is in that opportunity.

我們預計這項計畫將會順利實施，但我們在專案方面必須謹慎一些，因為這最終會成為客戶的資本支出，而我們正試圖弄清楚下一步該怎麼做。但就需求來源的利潤組合和結構性成本削減而言，無論這一機會的後半部分動態如何，這種設置本身都讓我們感覺相當良好。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

瑞穗的布雷特‧林齊 (Brett Linzey)。

Hey, good morning. Thanks. I just want to come back to price. So the incremental price not fully baked in the guide, but I guess, in terms of what you've announced to the channel and customers, do you have all the price out there that you need to mitigate the tariffs for this year?

嘿，早安。謝謝。我只是想回到價格問題。因此，增量價格尚未完全納入指南中，但我想，就您向管道和客戶宣布的內容而言，您是否已經提供了今年降低關稅所需的所有價格？

I hope so, if we could get some clarity on what the tariffs are actually going to be for the year. We just put out pricing last night, so I got an e-mail. So I think the vast majority of it is out there, but it's a little bit of a moving target under the current circumstances. And then price is always signaling at the end of the day, and there's a lag time in price. So it's not as if we raise prices tonight, we got to burn the backlog off and the drill. So I think everything that we know about is out there. We'll see about realization.

我希望如此，如果我們能弄清楚今年的實際關稅是多少的話。我們昨晚剛公佈了價格，所以我收到了一封電子郵件。所以我認為絕大多數都已經存在，但在當前情況下，這是一個有點移動的目標。然後價格總是在一天結束時發出信號，並且價格有一個滯後時間。因此，我們今晚不會提高價格，我們必須解決積壓問題並進行演習。所以我認為我們所知道的一切都在那裡。我們將拭目以待。

Yeah, makes sense. And then maybe just shifting back to FX. So headwinds flipping to a tailwind here. And understandably, there's the gyrations you don't want to mark-to-market. But I guess if you were to strike the line today, how are you thinking about the net impact with all the hedges and everything in terms of the tailwind at today's rates?

是的，有道理。然後也許就轉回 FX。因此，這裡的逆風已轉為順風。可以理解的是，存在著你不希望以市價計價的波動。但我想，如果您今天要劃定這條線，您會如何看待今天的利率對所有對沖和順風方面的一切的淨影響？

I think the last time we ran it, for what we trimmed out of the guidance, we'd put it right back on FX, believe it or not.

我認為，上次我們運行時，對於我們從指導中削減的部分，我們會將其放回 FX 上，不管你信不信。

Thank you. And that concludes our question-and-answer period and Dover's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。我們的問答環節和 Dover 2025 年第一季財報電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路並享受美好的一天。