道爾 (DOV) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Dover's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Speaking today are Richard J. Tobin, President and Chief Executive Officer; Brad Cerepak, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Jack Dickens, Senior Director, Investor Relations. (Operator instructions) As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference is being recorded and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, please disconnect at this time. Thank you.

早上好，歡迎參加 Dover 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天發言的是總裁兼執行長 Richard J. Tobin； Brad Cerepak，資深副總裁兼財務長；傑克狄更斯，投資者關係高級總監。（操作員說明）女士們先生們，請注意，本次會議正在錄音，您的參與即表示您同意我們對本次通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，請此時斷開連線。謝謝。

And I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jack Dickens. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話轉給傑克狄更斯先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Connie. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining our call. An audio version of this call will be available on our website through November 14, and a replay link of the webcast will be archived for 90 days. Our presentation today is on a continuing operations basis to exclude the impact of our divested waste hauling equipment business from historical results.

謝謝你，康妮。大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。本次電話會議的音訊版本將於 11 月 14 日之前在我們的網站上提供，網路廣播的重播連結將存檔 90 天。我們今天的介紹是在持續經營的基礎上進行的，目的是從歷史業績中排除我們剝離的廢棄物運輸設備業務的影響。

Please reference the 8-K filed on October 10. For further information. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations, actual results and events could differ from those statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties which are discussed in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

請參考 10 月 10 日提交的 8-K。欲了解更多資訊。我們今天的評論將包括基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述，由於我們在 SEC 文件中討論的許多風險和不確定性，實際結果和事件可能與這些陳述有所不同。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Rich.

然後，我會將電話轉給 Rich。

Thanks, Jack. Good morning, everyone. Let's start with the performance highlights on page 3. Overall, the quarter was modestly better than our internal forecast, which I'll cover in the upcoming segment results slides. Top line performance was broad-based across the portfolio. We are especially pleased that the rotation from our longer cycle businesses to our growth platforms has continued to drive positive margin mix for the total portfolio. We expect that to be an underlying theme as we head into 2025.

謝謝，傑克。大家早安。讓我們從第 3 頁的效能亮點開始。總體而言，本季略好於我們的內部預測，我將在接下來的部門業績幻燈片中介紹這一點。整個投資組合的營收表現基礎廣泛。我們特別高興的是，從較長週期業務到成長平台的輪換繼續推動整個投資組合的正利潤率組合。我們預計這將成為 2025 年的一個基本主題。

Segment margin performance for the quarter was solid at 22.6% and represents an all-time high for Dover's consolidated portfolio. Bookings were up 5% organically in the quarter with particular strength in clean energy, thermal connectors, CO2 systems and biopharma components, further bolstering our positive mix outlook. Adjusted EPS from continuing operations was up 6% to $2.27 (inaudible). During the quarter, we completed the divestiture of our Environmental Solutions Group business, reducing our exposure to the capital goods sector.

本季的分部利潤率表現穩定，達到 22.6%，是 Dover 綜合投資組合的歷史最高水準。本季的預訂量有機成長了 5%，其中清潔能源、熱連接器、二氧化碳系統和生物製藥組件的預訂量尤其強勁，進一步增強了我們積極的組合前景。持續經營業務調整後每股收益成長 6%，達到 2.27 美元（聽不清楚）。本季度，我們完成了環境解決方案集團業務的剝離，減少了我們在資本貨物領域的投資。

As you can see from the bottom right of the slide, the reconciliation of this impact to our full year adjusted EPS guidance from continuing operations. As a result of this transaction, we will exit 2024 with record capital deployment, firepower, providing us with a variety of value creation opportunities going forward.

正如您從幻燈片右下角看到的那樣，這種影響與我們來自持續經營業務的全年調整後每股收益指引的協調一致。透過此次交易，我們將以創紀錄的資本部署和火力退出 2024 年，為我們未來提供各種價值創造機會。

Our outlook remains constructive for the balance of the year. Our third quarter performance has given us room to manage demand seasonality to drive cash flow optimization through year-end by thoughtfully managing capacity utilization.

我們對今年剩餘時間的展望仍具有建設性。我們第三季的業績為我們提供了管理需求季節性的空間，透過深思熟慮地管理產能利用率，推動年底的現金流優化。

Our setup for 2025 is compelling with positive portfolio rotation into higher margin businesses as we lap easy and long cycle comps through the year. This is further augmented by our exceptional balance sheet, optionality to pursue value creating capital deployment strategies.

我們對 2025 年的安排非常引人注目，因為我們全年都在進行簡單且長週期的比較，因此我們將積極地將投資組合轉向利潤率更高的業務。我們卓越的資產負債表以及追求創造價值的資本部署策略的選擇性進一步增強了這一點。

Let's skip to slide 5 on segment performance. Engineered Products posted strong top line performance on volume growth in vehicle services and industrial winches, aerospace and defense was lower in the period due to shipment timing and a difficult comparable quarter. Margin was down modestly because of margin mix on reduced aerospace and defense volumes.

讓我們跳到關於分段效能的幻燈片 5。工程產品公司在車輛服務和工業絞車、航空航太和國防的銷售成長方面表現強勁，由於出貨時間和可比季度的困難，該季度業績較低。由於航空航太和國防業務量減少，利潤率略有下降。

Clean Energy & Fueling was down 1% organic as positive performance in clean energy components and North American retail fueling was offset by lower volumes in vehicle wash and retail fueling equipment in Europe and Asia.

清潔能源和燃料業務有機下降 1%，因為清潔能源組件和北美零售燃料的積極表現被歐洲和亞洲洗車和零售燃料設備銷售的下降所抵消。

Bookings were positive in the quarter as below ground retail fueling volumes are inflecting positively along with cryogenic components. Margin was flat as favorable product mix was offset by near-term integration costs of our most recent acquisitions. We expect this dynamic to have a material positive margin swing as we complete our integration activities through 2025.

由於地下零售燃料量與低溫部件一起出現積極變化，本季的預訂量呈正增長。利潤率持平，因為有利的產品組合被我們最近收購的近期整合成本所抵銷。我們預計，隨著我們在 2025 年完成整合活動，這種動態將帶來實質的正面利潤率波動。

Imaging & Identification posted an excellent quarter on solid marketing and coating performance in the US and Europe. New printer shipments inflected positively during the quarter, which is a good signal for customer capital spending. Margin performance was robust as management actions on cost to serve and footprint optimization continued to drive incremental margins.

成像與識別部門在美國和歐洲的營銷和塗層表現出色，季度表現出色。新印表機出貨量在本季出現正面變化，這對客戶資本支出來說是一個良好的訊號。由於服務成本和占地面積優化方面的管理行動持續推動利潤增量，因此利潤表現強勁。

Pumps & Process Solutions was up 2% organically on robust shipments in thermal connectors precision components, biopharma connectors and pumps, biopharma revenue is up mid-teens year-to-date and over 30% versus the comparable quarter of the prior year. As forecasted, polymer processing equipment was down in the period all in, Pumps & Process Solutions segment bookings were up 15% organically in the quarter as biopharma and growth platform cycles inflected positively.

由於熱連接器精密組件、生物製藥連接器和泵浦的強勁出貨量，泵浦和製程解決方案有機成長了2%，今年迄今為止，生物製藥收入成長了15%，與去年同期相比成長了30 % 以上。正如預測的那樣，聚合物加工設備在本季度總體下降，但由於生物製藥和成長平台週期出現積極變化，泵浦和製程解決方案部門的預訂在本季度有機增長了 15%。

Segment revenue mix drove 200 basis points of margin improvement on excellent performance. Production performance on volume growth in Biopharma and thermal margin mix from FW, the FW Murphy acquisition and tight cost controls in the Polymers business.

憑藉出色的業績，部門收入組合推動利潤率提高了 200 個基點。生物製藥產量成長和 FW 熱利潤組合、FW Murphy 收購以及聚合物業務嚴格成本控制的生產績效。

Revenue was down in the quarter in Climate & Sustainability Technologies as solid demand in food retail systems was offset by tough comps in beverage can making equipment and weak demand in the broader HVAC complex, particularly in European residential heat pumps on our brazed plate heat exchanger business.

本季氣候與永續發展技術收入下降，原因是食品零售系統的強勁需求被飲料罐製造設備的強勁競爭和更廣泛的暖通空調綜合體需求疲軟所抵消，特別是我們的釬焊板式熱交換器業務上的歐洲住宅熱泵。

We had hoped to see positive bookings inflection in heat exchangers in the quarter, but that was not the case. So we have taken down our forecast in the back half of the year in that business to preserve production performance for 2025.

我們原本希望看到本季熱交換器的預訂量出現正面變化，但事實並非如此。因此，我們降低了對該業務下半年的預測，以維持 2025 年的生產表現。

The frustrating results as we were able to hold segment margins flat despite the lower volumes due to excellent performance in our retail refrigeration business that was augmented by exceptionally good shipment rates in CO2 systems.

令人沮喪的結果是，儘管銷售量較低，但由於我們零售冷凍業務的出色表現，以及二氧化碳系統異常良好的出貨率，我們仍能保持部門利潤率持平。

Despite the short-term challenges, we like the setup going into '25 based on increasing CO2 demand, where we expect bookings to inflect materially higher together with market recovery and heat exchanges, both of which are margin accretive.

儘管有短期挑戰，我們還是喜歡進入 25 年的情況，因為二氧化碳需求不斷增加，我們預計隨著市場復甦和熱交換，預訂量將大幅上升，這兩者都會增加利潤。

I'll pass it to Brad here.

我會把它傳遞給布拉德。

Thanks, Rich. Good morning, everyone. Let's go to slide 6. Just a reminder that our presentation today is on a continuing operations basis, excluding our divested Environmental Solutions Group business from the historical results.

謝謝，里奇。大家早安。讓我們看投影片 6。只是提醒一下，我們今天的演示是在持續經營的基礎上進行的，不包括我們剝離的環境解決方案集團業務的歷史業績。

Let's go to the charts. The top bridge shows our revenue growth. The impact of acquired businesses this year more than offset the disposition of DeStaCo, which closed on March 31 by $21 million, while FX was basically flat. From a geographic perspective, the US, our largest market was up 8% in the quarter on healthy broad-based demand.

讓我們看一下圖表。頂橋顯示了我們的收入成長。今年收購業務的影響遠遠抵消了 DeStaCo 的處置，該公司於 3 月 31 日收盤價為 2,100 萬美元，而外匯則基本持平。從地理角度來看，由於健康的廣泛需求，我們最大的市場美國在本季度增長了 8%。

Europe and Asia were down 5% and 10%, respectively. China, which represents about half our revenue base in Asia was down 17% organically in the quarter, primarily due to shipment timing within polymer processing. On the bottom chart, bookings were up $90 million organically year-over-year on solid broad based demand across most end markets. Below-the-line items were slightly unfavorable on a year-over-year basis in the quarter on higher corporate costs, mostly related to acquisition deal costs.

歐洲和亞洲分別下降了 5% 和 10%。中國約占我們在亞洲收入基礎的一半，本季有機下降了 17%，這主要是由於聚合物加工領域的出貨時間安排所致。在底部圖表中，由於大多數終端市場的基礎廣泛的穩定需求，預訂量同比有機增長了 9000 萬美元。由於企業成本上升（主要與收購交易成本有關），本季線下項目與去年同期相比略有不利。

Our cash flow statement is on slide 7. Adjusting for taxes paid on the gain of DeStaCo, which are non-operational in nature, our free cash flow was 17% of revenue in the quarter, up $48 million year-over-year. Year-to-date cash flow on this chart is 11% of revenue.

我們的現金流量表在投影片 7 上。在調整 DeStaCo 收益（本質上是非經營性收益）所繳納的稅款後，我們的自由現金流佔本季營收的 17%，較去年同期增加 4,800 萬美元。該圖表中的年初至今現金流量佔收入的 11%。

The fourth quarter is historically our highest cash flow quarter as we expect more favorable working capital balances over the rest of the year. We are on track to deliver our full year adjusted free cash flow guidance of 13% to 15% of revenue, unchanged from prior guidance.

第四季是我們歷史上現金流量最高的季度，因為我們預計今年剩餘時間的營運資金餘額將更加有利。我們預計將實現全年調整後的自由現金流佔收入的 13% 至 15%，與先前的指導保持不變。

With that, let me turn it back to Rich.

說到這裡，讓我把話題轉回里奇身上。

Thanks, Brad. I'm on slide 8. It was a busy quarter with the portfolio moves, discontinued ops and some counter cyclicality within the portfolio. As a result of that, we thought it prudent to lay the groundwork for 2025 earlier to provide some hopefully helpful views.

謝謝，布拉德。我在幻燈片 8 上。這是一個繁忙的季度，出現了投資組合變動、業務中斷以及投資組合內的一些反週期性現象。因此，我們認為儘早為 2025 年奠定基礎以提供一些希望有幫助的觀點是明智的做法。

Let's start with the portfolio. We articulated throughout the year that underlying demand across many of our end markets is solid, and that remains the case as we look forward into 2025. With a diverse portfolio such as ours, we enter each planning cycle, constructing a view of the overall macro, the individual business cycles and our competitive position.

讓我們從投資組合開始。我們全年都明確表示，我們許多終端市場的潛在需求是穩固的，展望 2025 年，情況仍然如此。憑藉像我們這樣的多元化投資組合，我們進入每個規劃週期，建立整體宏觀、個別商業週期和我們的競爭地位的視圖。

In 2024, we had a familiar challenge much like we did in the post-COVID period navigating the biopharma demand cycle. In 2024, we managed a down cycle on the portion of our high backlog long cycle portfolio as well as the regulatory and stocking idiosyncrasies and heat exchangers as shown on the right side of the page.

2024 年，我們面臨著一個熟悉的挑戰，就像我們在後新冠疫情時期應對生物製藥需求週期所面臨的挑戰一樣。2024 年，我們對高積壓長週期產品組合以及監管和庫存特性以及熱交換器的部分進行了下行週期管理，如頁面右側所示。

As you can see on the slide, we managed to offset the significant cycle headwind with mixing up our consolidated margin on broader short cycle improvement augmented by our growth platforms, which we invested in both organically and inorganically.

正如您在幻燈片中所看到的，我們成功地抵消了重大的周期逆風，將我們的綜合利潤與更廣泛的短期週期改善混合在一起，並透過我們的有機和無機投資的成長平台增強了這一點。

As we complete 2024 and begin forming our view for 2025, we do not receive the same counter cyclicality in the portfolio. Bookings and customer forecasts indicate that our growth platforms are in a multi-period demand cycle.

當我們結束 2024 年並開始形成對 2025 年的看法時，我們在投資組合中沒有看到相同的反週期性。預訂量和客戶預測顯示我們的成長平台處於多時期的需求週期中。

We are particularly pleased with the growth rate in biopharma components, thermal connectors, precision components and CO2 systems, all with margin accretion attributes to the portfolio. We expect heat exchanges to return to growth in 2025 on the recovery in heat pumps and large format demand district heating and data center applications for which we are expanding production capacity today.

我們對生物製藥組件、熱連接器、精密組件和二氧化碳系統的成長率感到特別滿意，所有這些都為產品組合帶來了利潤成長。我們預計，隨著熱泵和大型需求區域供暖和資料中心應用的恢復，熱交換器將在 2025 年恢復成長，我們今天正在擴大這些應用的產能。

Let's move to slide 9. Organic investment, inorganic growth and shareholder friendly capital return remain front and center to our strategy, and we have done all three so far in 2024. We have been more active on portfolio pruning this year at attractive valuations as we methodically reshaped the portfolio to higher secular growth and less cyclical end market exposures. As mentioned earlier, we will exit '24 with significant optionality for capital deployment and, or capital return, which is reflected on the balance sheet capacity bar on the right.

讓我們轉到投影片 9。有機投資、無機成長和股東友好的資本回報仍然是我們策略的前沿和核心，2024 年到目前為止，我們已經完成了這三項工作。今年，我們以有吸引力的估值更積極地進行投資組合修剪，因為我們有條不紊地重塑了投資組合，以實現更高的長期成長和更少的周期性終端市場風險。如前所述，我們將在 24 世紀退出時為資本部署和/或資本回報提供重大選擇，這反映在右側的資產負債表容量欄上。

Let's finish up with slide 10. I've already covered the adjusted EPS guidance to accommodate the discontinued operations earlier in the deck, which is summarized on the left. At the time of the ESG announcement, we are often asked about the assumptions needed to offset the lost earnings from divestitures in 2025. We prepared the bridge on the slide to provide some direction on the moving pieces on a pro forma basis.

讓我們以幻燈片 10 結束。我已經在前面介紹了調整後的 EPS 指導，以適應已停止的運營，這在左側進行了總結。在發布 ESG 公告時，我們經常被問到抵銷 2025 年資產剝離帶來的收益損失所需的假設。我們在幻燈片上準備了橋樑，以便在預計的基礎上為移動部件提供一些指導。

Let's not get too excited. We will, as always, provide formal '25 guidance after the close of the year, but I thought it would, I thought, but I hope that you find it to be a reasonable pro forma view that provides clarity on the moving parts. Left to right, we start with predisposal EPS from our previous guide. We treat retrospectively the disposals on a full year basis.

我們不要太興奮。我們將一如既往地在今年結束後提供正式的 '25 指導，但我認為會，但我希望您發現這是一個合理的預期觀點，可以清晰地說明活動部件。從左到右，我們從先前指南中的處置前 EPS 開始。我們對全年的處置進行追溯處理。

We treat the cash balance prospectively as it ever held for the full year in the short term in highly liquid positions where it is presently, which includes the retirement of commercial paper costs in 2024, and we roll forward the 2024 acquisitions earnings benefit.

我們按照目前在高流動性部位中在短期內持有的全年現金餘額進行前瞻性處理，其中包括在 2024 年取消商業票據成本，並結轉 2024 年收購收益收益。

We get to a rebased 2025 EPS of $8.60 to $8.75 on a base model that assumes zero organic growth in 2025. If we model a 3% to 5% organic growth at a 40% conversion rate next year, which includes $25 million in restructuring roll forward that is already completed or underway this year, we get an additional $0.55 to $0.90 of EPS. As I mentioned earlier, we are accelerating our synergy capture from recent acquisitions, including footprint consolidation, so what I would expect the restructuring contribution to be higher in 2025.

基於假設 2025 年有機成長為零的基本模型，我們將 2025 年每股盈餘重新調整為 8.60 美元至 8.75 美元。如果我們明年以 40% 的轉換率模擬 3% 到 5% 的有機成長，其中包括今年已經完成或正在進行的 2500 萬美元的重組延期，我們將獲得額外的 0.55 到 0.90 美元的每股收益。正如我之前提到的，我們正在加速從最近的收購中獲取協同效應，包括足跡整合，因此我預計 2025 年的重組貢獻將會更高。

Considering what was covered in the growth platform's growth trajectory, margin mix and long cycle comparable performance that we discussed on slide 8, the top line and incremental margin assumptions seem reasonable. Now I certainly doubt that we'll sit on that amount of liquidity unless there is a drastic negative change in the macro and then in that case, it is nice to have an insurance policy.

考慮到我們在投影片 8 中討論的成長平台的成長軌跡、利潤率組合和長週期可比業績中所涵蓋的內容，營收和增量利潤率假設似乎是合理的。現在我當然懷疑我們是否會持有這麼多的流動性，除非宏觀經濟發生巨大的負面變化，然後在這種情況下，擁有保險單是件好事。

Clearly, this model can be flexed for share repurchases and M&A, but the model timing is problematic. So this is a simple (inaudible) view. Our preference is to be active on the M&A front. And at present, that environment is getting better. We have an interesting opportunity pipeline, but rest assured, we will proceed with the capital discipline that we have demonstrated in the past.

顯然，這種模型可以靈活用於股票回購和併購，但模型的時機是有問題的。所以這是一個簡單的（聽不清楚）視圖。我們的偏好是積極參與併購。而目前，這個環境正在變得更好。我們有一個有趣的機會管道，但請放心，我們將繼續遵循我們過去所展示的資本紀律。

With that, let's go to Q&A and I won't say (inaudible) or whatever. Okay. Let's go.

就這樣，讓我們進入問答環節，我不會說（聽不清楚）或其他什麼。好的。我們走吧。

Thank you. (Operator instructions)

謝謝。（操作員說明）

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

Jeff Sprague，垂直研究夥伴。

Thanks. We're all tongue tied this morning.

謝謝。今天早上我們都張口結舌。

(Laughter) Good morning, Jeff.

（笑聲）早安，傑夫。

Good morning. Yeah, it's early. It's early but it feels like hey, Just on the comment on climate sustainability, Rich, that you made as you were going through kind of the opening comments. The comment about materially higher in '25, was that a total segment comment, a heat pump comment? Can you just maybe elaborate on the moving pieces within that segment in particular?

早安.是啊，還早呢。現在還為時過早，但感覺就像嘿，只是關於氣候永續性的評論，Rich，您在進行開場評論時所做的評論。25 年的評論明顯更高，這是一個總段評論，還是一個熱泵評論？您能否詳細說明一下該細分市場中的具體變化？

Yes. I mean I think there was a bookings comment more than anything else. We, if you recall back last quarter, we had said that we would hope to have seen bookings increase in brazed plate heat exchanges for European heat pumps. That was not the case. So we have taken down our full year estimates in that particular product line.

是的。我的意思是，我認為預訂評論比其他任何事情都重要。如果您回想一下上個季度，我們曾說過，我們希望看到歐洲熱泵釬焊板熱交換器的預訂量增加。事實並非如此。因此，我們降低了該特定產品線的全年預期。

So that's negative to bookings now. We're going to take down production just to let whatever the remaining clearing event needs to take place between now and the end of the year. So we'll cut production in Q4 also in terms of the estimates.

所以這對現在的預訂不利。我們將減少生產，以便從現在到年底之間完成剩餘的清理活動。因此，我們也將根據估計削減第四季度的產量。

At that point, I think it's fair to say that bookings based on what we see in our forecast for '25 demand and heat pumps should inflect positively going forward there. And in CO2 systems based on feedback that we're getting from the market in terms of spend, we would expect a material amount of bookings inflection there, whether we get it all in Q4, whether it splits between Q4 and Q1, we'll see. But based on our market read there, we think that we're going to be materially up on CO2 systems in 2025.

到那時，我認為可以公平地說，基於我們對 25 年需求和熱泵的預測中所看到的預訂應該會在未來產生積極的影響。在基於我們從市場上獲得的支出反饋的二氧化碳系統中，我們預計會有大量的預訂量變化，無論我們是否在第四季度獲得全部，無論是否在第四季度和第一季之間分配，我們都會看。但根據我們對市場的了解，我們認為到 2025 年我們將大幅增加二氧化碳系統的使用。

And then I appreciate the bridge here, it's definitely helpful. Just thinking about that $0.50, right, that's tied to sort of cash on hand. Obviously, the deal impact can vary depending on what you pay for stuff and the light, right multiples. Do you foresee a scenario where it's less than $0.50 because you're more active on the M&A front. How should we think about that?

然後我很欣賞這裡的橋樑，它絕對有幫助。想想那 0.50 美元，對吧，這與手頭上的現金有關。顯然，交易的影響可能會有所不同，具體取決於您購買商品的價格以及正確的倍數。您是否預見到會出現低於 0.50 美元的情況，因為您在併購方面更加活躍？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Yes. I mean, and that's, I tried to cover that in the commentary, Jeff. Look, at the end of the day, the, as someone described at the in the bag, it would be just to sit on the liquidity and that liquidity, you can just basically say that deposit rates even with factoring in rate cuts would drive that kind of result. In my comments, I said, I don't foresee that actually happening. Now whether it's M&A or share repurchases, that math gets kind of funky, right?

是的。我的意思是，我試圖在評論中涵蓋這一點，傑夫。看看，歸根結底，正如有人在袋子裡所描述的那樣，這只是坐擁流動性，而流動性，你基本上可以說，即使考慮到降息因素，存款利率也會推動這一趨勢種結果。我在評論中說，我預計這種情況不會真正發生。現在，無論是併購還是股票回購，數學都變得有點奇怪，對吧？

Because you got to start, but we've done the models here and said, if it's margin accretive, and we paid 15 times what does that look like and if you close it into Q1, what does that look like? Or if we did a share repurchase of $1 billion, what does that look like? You can do those scenarios.

因為你必須開始，但我們在這裡做了模型並說，如果它能增加利潤，我們支付了 15 倍，那會是什麼樣子，如果你將其關閉到第一季度，那會是什麼樣子？或者，如果我們回購 10 億美元的股票，那會是什麼樣子？你可以做這些場景。

But we just thought that optically to give you a view of it's not only the, it's not 2021 anymore, where holding on to liquidity was a zero sum game because your cost of carry was neutral, if not negative. Now it's meaningful.

但我們只是認為，從視覺上讓您看到，現在不再是 2021 年了，持有流動性是一場零和遊戲，因為您的持有成本即使不是負數，也是中性的。現在有意義了。

And if you go back and look at our interest cost on commercial paper in '24 and you add that back again, the gap that we have in the lost earnings is really what we're trying to show here is significantly reduced because of that carry.

如果你回頭看看我們 24 年商業票據的利息成本，然後再次添加回來，我們在收入損失中的缺口實際上就是我們在這裡試圖展示的，由於利差而顯著減少。

So I hope and I would expect that the interest income line is going to be overstated because I would expect us to deploy M&A capital. But just as a note, that cash balance is just the proceeds and the after-tax proceeds of the disposals and it doesn't really factor in our Q4 cash flow. So that number is a little bit understated anyway.

因此，我希望並且預計利息收入線會被誇大，因為我預計我們會部署併購資本。但請注意，現金餘額只是處置的收益和稅後收益，它並沒有真正考慮到我們第四季的現金流。所以無論如何，這個數字有點低估了。

Right. And also you got additional leverage to deploy if you want to. Great. I appreciate it. Thanks. I'll leave it there.

正確的。如果您願意，您還可以獲得額外的部署槓桿。偉大的。我很感激。謝謝。我會把它留在那裡。

Yeah, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning. Maybe a lot of good color on the slides. Maybe one thing I wanted to touch on was just the overall organic growth backdrop. Your tone sounds pretty confident. I think bookings up mid-single digit organic is sort of broadly what you expected. Just wondered sort of what your impression was of the broader environment in terms of customer activity, anything notable moving around?

嗨，早安。也許幻燈片上有很多漂亮的顏色。也許我想談的一件事就是整體有機成長背景。你的語氣聽起來相當有自信。我認為自然預訂量達到中個位數大致符合您的預期。只是想知道您對客戶活動方面的更廣泛環境的印像如何，有什麼值得注意的變化嗎？

And tied to that, when we look at your segments, say in Q3, very, very wide spread of organic growth outcomes. One division up low double digit, one down high single digits. When we're thinking about the 3% to 5% framework you have on Slide 10 for 2025, is the core assumption that the sort of variability across the five segments is much narrower and kind of all are contributing to growth?

與此相關的是，當我們檢視你們的細分市場時，例如在第三季度，有機成長結果的分佈非常非常廣泛。低位兩位數上升一位，高位一位位下降一位。當我們考慮投影片 10 上的 2025 年 3% 至 5% 框架時，核心假設是否是五個細分市場之間的變異性要小得多，並且所有細分市場都有助於成長？

Yes, Julian, I think that's what we were trying to do with the slide 8. I mean, I think, the $300 million headwind was like a 4% or 5% growth headwind that we carried into this year that we were able to offset by the kind of the investments in our growth exposures. So what we're saying is, here we don't see any indication on the growth platforms for that growth rate, the law of small numbers, of course, is that will continue at the same pace, I guess, in terms of growth going forward.

是的，朱利安，我想這就是我們在幻燈片 8 上嘗試做的事情。我的意思是，我認為，3 億美元的逆風就像我們今年帶來的 4% 或 5% 的成長逆風，我們能夠透過成長曝險的投資來抵消。所以我們要說的是，我們在成長平台上沒有看到任何關於該成長率的跡象，當然，小數法則是，我想，就成長而言，這將繼續以相同的速度進行繼續前進。

And then we'll begin to lap the headwind that we have, basically, which is a long cycle part, which is beverage can making, which is completely bottomed at this point and polymer processing, which we believe has bottomed at Q4.

然後我們將開始克服我們所面臨的逆風，基本上，這是一個長週期部分，即飲料罐製造（此時已完全觸底）和聚合物加工（我們認為已在第四季度觸底）。

What we're going to see in heat exchanges next year, I'd like another quarter to figure it out and see what everybody is going to say about heat exchanges. But what we can from our channel checks, we would expect that by cutting production in Q4 will probably undercut into the market and just push demand into next year.

明年我們將在熱交換中看到什麼，我希望再花一個季度的時間來弄清楚，看看每個人都會對熱交換說些什麼。但從我們的通路檢查中可以看出，我們預計，透過第四季度的減產，可能會削弱市場份額，並將需求推至明年。

So if I look at the core portfolio, I don't see anything else that is in cycle down in '25. We're just getting that behind us. And that was a 3% to, 4% to 5% or 3% to, 4% to 5% headwind this year. So that's why I think it's reasonable to expect I think when we modeled the year was 3% to 5% and the incremental margin, if you take out the restructuring benefit is basically where we've always been at 25% to 35%.

因此，如果我查看核心投資組合，我沒有看到任何其他東西在 25 年處於週期下降狀態。我們剛剛把它拋在腦後。今年的逆風是 3% 到 4% 到 5% 或 3% 到 4% 到 5%。因此，這就是為什麼我認為，當我們對這一年進行建模時，預期利潤率為3% 至5%，如果剔除重組收益，增量利潤率基本上是我們一直在的25% 至35% ，這是合理的。

That's very helpful. Thank you. And then just maybe one quick follow-up on one of the segments. DII doesn't often get much attention, but superlative margin performance again in that business in Q3. You've seen that in the first half also.

這非常有幫助。謝謝。然後可能只是對其中一個片段進行快速跟進。DII 並不經常受到太多關注，但該業務在第三季度再次實現了最高的利潤率表現。你在上半場也看到了這一點。

So maybe sort of clarify. I know there's a mix commentary as a tailwind for DII. But is that something, I don't know, structural changing in the mix in terms of kind of how you've repositioned that business or it's simply just the consumables versus equipment dynamic and that may flip around next year?

所以也許需要澄清一下。我知道有多種評論可以作為 DII 的推動力。但我不知道，這是否是某種結構性變化，即您如何重新定位該業務，或者只是消耗品與設備的動態變化，明年可能會發生逆轉？

The consumables equipment will fluctuate quarter by quarter. But if you look at it over longer periods, it's not overly meaningful. So it does, you hear comments quarter-to-quarter about it, but over a 12 month cycle, it always ends up in the same spot. Really, the margin performance here is that the management team of that particular business has done an excellent job on cost to serve.

消耗品設備會逐季度波動。但如果你把它放在更長的時間來看，它並沒有太大的意義。確實如此，您每個季度都會聽到有關它的評論，但在 12 個月的周期中，它總是會出現在同一個位置。事實上，這裡的利潤表現是該特定業務的管理團隊在服務成本方面做得非常出色。

This is a global business. There, it's synergy extraction from the cost to serve on a global basis. So I mean that's the majority of, if you go back and look over the last three to four years, not generally been volume, it's been a business model change. So I don't think that these margins that we're posting now because I know what the pipeline is for '25 and '26. I think that this is a reasonable approximation where this business is capable of delivering.

這是一項全球性業務。在那裡，它是從全球服務成本中提取協同效應。所以我的意思是，如果你回顧過去三到四年，大部分不是數量，而是商業模式的變化。所以我不認為我們現在發布的這些利潤是因為我知道 25 和 26 年的管道是什麼。我認為這是該業務能夠實現的合理近似值。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

斯科特·戴維斯，Melius 研究公司。

Hey, good morning guys. Hey, I wanted to follow up a little bit on the M&A question. I think it was Jeff. It seems, the deals we've seen in the last couple of years is that in the multiple ranges, the only deals that are kind of working are the ones where there's a fair amount of synergies. Is that, is this something, when you guys look at your existing portfolio, is there a wide enough net there to be able to buy things that bolt-on to make you kind of the, what I'll say, the best owner of that asset? Or do you think or multiples come down to the level where that's no longer the case?

嘿，早上好，夥計們。嘿，我想跟進一下併購問題。我認為是傑夫。看來，我們在過去幾年看到的交易是，在多個範圍內，唯一有效的交易是那些具有相當多協同效應的交易。是這樣嗎，當你們看看你們現有的投資組合時，是否有一個足夠廣泛的網絡，能夠購買附加的東西，讓你們成為，我想說的是，最好的所有者那個資產？或者你認為倍數會下降到不再是這種情況的水平嗎？

I think that if you go back and look at multiples paid here over the last four to five years, I think they've been reasonable. And at the time of the announcement on the kind of more material deals, there was always a good portion of the return that was based on synergy extraction. The smaller deals, there's really not a lot to do, but the bigger deals, we've built basically an engine on our existing, if you think about when we went through from '18 to about '22, we had built this engine to extract synergies out of our own core portfolio, which drove a lot of margin expansion, while the benefit of building those engines, if you will, is when we do an M&A, we just do the same playbook just because we practice on ourselves for five years.

我認為，如果你回頭看看過去四到五年這裡支付的倍數，我認為它們是合理的。在宣布此類更實質交易時，總有很大一部分回報是基於協同效應提取。對於較小的交易，確實沒有太多要做的事情，但是對於較大的交易，我們基本上在現有的基礎上構建了一個引擎，如果你想想我們從18 年到22 年左右的時間，我們已經建立了這個引擎從我們自己的核心投資組合中提取協同效應，這推動了利潤率的大幅擴張，而構建這些引擎的好處（如果你願意的話）是，當我們進行併購時，我們只是做同樣的劇本，因為我們自己練習了五年年。

So they need to be a decent of enough size, but I think everything that we did of the bigger ones recently in Clean Energy had a good amount of synergy extraction. And if you go back and look at the transcript and you look on the clean energy side, I think that we posted a 20% margin this year. It's going to take us probably three quarters of '25 to finish up on the footprint and everything else, but we fully expect to drive those businesses up to 25% on synergy extraction alone.

因此，它們需要有足夠的規模，但我認為我們最近在清潔能源領域對大型企業所做的一切都具有大量的協同效應。如果你回頭看成績單，看看清潔能源方面，我認為我們今年的利潤率為 20%。我們可能需要 25 年的四分之三時間才能完成足跡和其他所有工作，但我們完全期望僅透過協同效應提取就能將這些業務推動至 25%。

Okay. That's good color. Hey, guys, maybe a dumb question. But when you're selling these thermal connectors, who's specing in the product? Is it the cloud guys? Or is it the cooling guys? And I still get, want back in your good go (inaudible) .

好的。這顏色真好啊嘿，夥計們，也許是個愚蠢的問題。但是，當您銷售這些熱連接器時，誰在產品中指定規格？是雲裡的人嗎？還是那些冷酷的傢伙？我仍然想要回到你的好運（聽不清楚）。

Yes. Look, I'll answer it this way. We've been in this business for quite a while. So it's not a product that we're ramping up because of AI build out. This product was actually built for supercomputing applications, which are the only ones that were using water cooling is relatively low volume in the past.

是的。你看，我就這樣回答吧。我們從事這個行業已經有一段時間了。因此，我們並不是因為人工智慧的發展而推出這款產品。該產品實際上是為超級計算應用而設計的，這是過去唯一使用水冷卻且體積相對較小的產品。

So it is speced out and there are recommended specs, but you still need to sell to the user and, or the builder. So it's kind of complicated, but we would, we're the ones, I think, that we can claim to have the most product that's actually in use in the ecosystem today.

因此，它已明確並有推薦的規格，但您仍然需要向用戶和/或建造商出售。所以這有點複雜，但我認為我們可以聲稱擁有當今生態系統中實際使用的最多產品。

Right. But the point is kind of once it's speced in, if it needs to be replaced to preventive maintenance or whatever, it's like-for-like, right?

正確的。但重點是，一旦指定，如果需要更換為預防性維護或其他什麼，那就是同類的，對吧？

I think that would be the assumption, yes.

我認為這就是假設，是的。

Okay. Fair enough. Thank you guys. Good luck. Passing on.

好的。很公平。謝謝你們。祝你好運。傳承下去。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Deane Dray, RBC.

迪恩·德雷，加拿大皇家銀行。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝。大家早安。

Morning.

早晨。

Hey, on the biopharma, the recovery underway in the single-use, is what are the green shoots you're looking for? We saw results that would suggest that from Danaher in particular. So is there anything broader going on in terms of how you think, because it's been the most extended destocking period for everyone, but just any color there would be helpful?

嘿，在生物製藥領域，一次性使用正在復蘇，您正在尋找什麼萌芽？我們看到的結果尤其顯示丹納赫的這一點。那麼，就您的想法而言，是否有更廣泛的事情發生，因為這對每個人來說都是最長的去庫存期，但任何顏色都會有幫助嗎？

Sure. Look, we led down because of the amount of inventory post COVID that had put into the channel, and we're leading out, right, because these are consumable products. So these don't require new builds of new systems. They just need the systems that have been sold in previous periods to continue to operate.

當然。看，我們領先是因為新冠疫情後進入渠道的庫存量，我們領先，對吧，因為這些是消耗品。因此，這些不需要新建的新系統。他們只需要前期已售出的系統來繼續運作。

So for a while, there was a little bit of de-linkage because we were going down early and from what our customers are saying, I think that we've been reading the reports from the market participants, and we're mostly in line now. I think we're all saying that basically the same thing in terms of the trajectory and the recovery. And I think that is reflected in our growth rates in terms of the consumables portion of it.

因此，有一段時間，存在一些脫鉤，因為我們很早就開始下降，從客戶的說法來看，我認為我們一直在閱讀市場參與者的報告，而且我們基本上是一致的現在。我認為我們在軌跡和恢復方面都說的是基本上相同的事情。我認為這反映在我們消耗品部分的成長率。

Good. And, now you'll have doubled the amount of imaging questions that you typically get. Your primary competitor made a lot of noise about broadening our platform, what they call from source to shelf. They're more vertically integrated than you guys. But is that a broader platform that you all would be interested in participating in. And do you have aspirations there, they paid up pretty sizably for a SaaS business?

好的。而且，現在您遇到的成像問題數量將是通常情況下的兩倍。你的主要競爭對手在擴大我們的平台方面大肆宣傳，他們稱之為從源頭到貨架。他們比你們更垂直整合。但這是一個大家都有興趣參與的更廣泛的平台嗎？他們為 SaaS 業務付出了相當大的代價，你對此有抱負嗎？

Deane, are we talking about the acquisition that they just made?

Deane，我們是在談論他們剛剛進行的收購嗎？

Yes. But then

是的。但後來

Yes. I mean we've got a good sized track and trace platform within that business today. So I think it's nuanced in terms of where you are in the chain. We're more pharma oriented. And I haven't studied it, that looks like it's more food oriented. So we've got a pretty big business right now that's actually been doing quite well over the last couple of years in that space. So we're already there.

是的。我的意思是，我們今天在該業務中擁有一個規模較大的追蹤平台。所以我認為這取決於你在鏈條中的位置。我們更以製藥為導向。而且我沒研究過，似乎還是比較偏向食物的。所以我們現在有一個相當大的業務，實際上在過去幾年裡在這個領域表現得很好。所以我們已經到了。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks, good morning and thanks for the '25 kind of help out there. So it sounds, Rich, like you're pretty, sort of like the base case would be the organic range you laid out there. So you'd encourage us to kind of use that range. But what I'm kind of curious of is when we look at the, look at the '24 performance, what impact did you have from the capital businesses, Maag, Belvac and the (inaudible) European businesses? If we assume that those are bottoming out this year, maybe (inaudible) next year, what is the mechanical impact of those businesses?

謝謝，早安，謝謝 25 年來的幫忙。所以聽起來，里奇，你很漂亮，有點像基本情況就是你在那裡佈置的有機範圍。所以你會鼓勵我們使用這個範圍。但我有點好奇的是，當我們看看 24 年的表現時，資本企業、Maag、Belvac 和（聽不清楚）歐洲企業對您產生了什麼影響？如果我們假設這些業務今年觸底，也許明年（聽不清楚），那麼這些業務的機械影響是什麼？

Nigel, if you go to slide 8 (inaudible) the presentation. We give you the absolute number. And it's, I'm going to get it wrong, 3% to 5%, 4% to 5% headwind that we're taking and that is on a rolling 12-month basis, correct? Q4 of last year through Q3 this year. It's cost us $300 million of headwinds and that's about 4% or 5% growth.

Nigel，如果您轉到投影片 8（聽不清楚）簡報。我們給你絕對的數字。我可能會弄錯，我們正在面臨 3% 到 5%、4% 到 5% 的逆風，而且是在 12 個月的滾動基礎上，對嗎？去年第四季到今年第三季。它帶來了 3 億美元的逆風，這相當於 4% 或 5% 的成長。

Okay. I completely missed them. So again, so if that then flattens out, your 3% to 5% seems. I don't know, no improvement in the rest of the businesses. Is that the right way to react? (Laughter)

好的。我完全想念他們。再說一遍，如果隨後趨於平緩，那麼您的 3% 到 5% 似乎就是這樣。我不知道，其他業務沒有改善。這是正確的反應方式嗎？（笑聲）

Like you may have missed the beginning here. I mean we're not giving out '25 guidance. We just thought that it was important because of all the noise with discontinued ops and everything else to kind of let you rebase your look on '25. I didn't want to come out to this thing and say, well, here's discontinued ops, and we'll tell you in January, what that all means.

就像你可能錯過了這裡的開始。我的意思是我們不會給出 '25 指導。我們只是認為這很重要，因為所有停止營運的噪音以及其他一切都可以讓你重新審視 25 年的外觀。我不想說，好吧，這裡的操作已經停止，我們會在一月告訴你，這一切意味著什麼。

So it's a reasonable approximation, but give us another quarter to get an understanding of the macro and everything else. And I'm not saying that those are exactly going to be the numbers that we give out for '25 guidance, but they look reasonable based on using the growth rates that we have on our secular growth exposures and then a lapping of the headwinds that we have seems reasonable. But rest assured, we'll update them in January.

所以這是一個合理的近似值，但請再給我們四分之一的時間來了解宏觀和其他一切。我並不是說這些正是我們為 25 年指導給出的數字，但基於我們對長期增長敞口的增長率以及隨後的逆風，它們看起來是合理的。但請放心，我們會在一月更新它們。

Okay. That's a good boilerplate response, Rich. And then just on, just a quick clarification on the 4Q guide and then I'll pass it on. The 4Q, sorry, the full year EPS, the, so I'm guessing there's about $0.10 of interest income coming through in the fourth quarter from the ESG divestment proceeds. So is that wrapped into the [102], or is that sort of within the $0.05 kind of bump up to the low end? Just any help there.

好的。這是一個很好的樣板響應，Rich。然後，對 4Q 指南進行快速澄清，然後我會將其傳遞下去。第四季度，對不起，全年每股收益，所以我猜第四季度有大約 0.10 美元的利息收入來自 ESG 剝離收益。那麼，這是包含在[102]中的，還是在 0.05 美元的範圍內上漲到低端的？那裡有任何幫助。

I don't know whether it's $0.10. I'd have to go back and look at deconstruct it. There is an amount of interest income that's in the bump. That helps to offset what I mentioned earlier about we're taking heat exchanger volumes down, and we're making some production cuts there. So yes, it's all in right now. And at the end of the day, we're driving towards the top of the range as usual.

不知道是不是0.10美元。我必須回去看看解構它。有一定金額的利息收入正在增加。這有助於抵消我之前提到的我們正在減少熱交換器容量，並且我們正在那裡進行一些產量削減。所以是的，現在一切都完成了。一天結束時，我們將像往常一樣駛向山頂。

Yeah. Okay. Thanks Rich.

是的。好的。謝謝里奇。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Joe o' Dea, Wells Fargo.

喬·奧·迪，富國銀行。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just wanted to touch on fueling and the comments around belowground fueling, inflecting positively and any sort of context or perspective in terms of the cycle trends there and what you're seeing now in terms of how early on we are in seeing some growth?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。只是想談談燃料和有關地下燃料的評論，積極影響以及任何形式的背景或觀點，就那裡的周期趨勢而言，以及您現在所看到的，我們多久才能看到一些增長？

Yes. I mean that's been a headwind for us for three years, I think, right, because it suffered with inflationary inputs and the lack of ability of labor and a variety of things that you had gone and looked at the CapEx projections for retail operators, they never hit their numbers just because of the inflation that was going through the system. So we had labor costs and labor, just availability, getting better. We've seen that begin to inflect positively, which is great because it's margin accretive to that particular business.

是的。我的意思是，這對我們來說是三年來的逆風，我認為是的，因為它遭受了通貨膨脹投入和勞動力能力缺乏以及您查看零售運營商的資本支出預測的各種因素，他們永遠不會會僅僅因為系統中的通貨膨脹而達到他們的數字。所以我們有勞動成本和勞力，只是可用性，變得更好。我們已經看到這種情況開始出現積極的變化，這很好，因為它可以增加特定業務的利潤。

So, and we would expect that to cycle forward from here. On the demand side of it, it's been relatively muted. So you can't see it, but that is us. We are managing this business for margin, and I think we've made some tougher decisions about business that we would take, particularly in Europe and Asia. So that has muted the top line growth because we, because in combination with the cryogenic components, if we get this right, we can get the entire segment up to 25% EBITDA margin at kind of an exit rate 25% or at least at the goal.

因此，我們預計這種情況會從這裡開始循環。在需求方面，它相對平靜。所以你看不到它，但這就是我們。我們正在管理這項業務的利潤，我認為我們已經對我們將採取的業務做出了一些更艱難的決定，特別是在歐洲和亞洲。因此，這抑制了營收成長，因為我們與低溫組件結合，如果我們做得好，我們可以使整個細分市場的 EBITDA 利潤率達到 25%，退出率達到 25%，或至少達到 25%。目標。

I appreciate that. And then just wanted to circle back on the restructuring. I think you talked about as you head into next year, $25 million of carryover but also made some comments that there could be more. And so I just wanted to make sure I heard that correctly in terms of, are there additional sort of planning efforts underway and where we could see more of that happening across the business?

我很欣賞這一點。然後只想回到重組。我想您在進入明年時談到了 2500 萬美元的結轉，但也發表了一些評論稱可能會有更多結轉。因此，我只是想確保我聽到的是否正確，是否正在進行其他類型的規劃工作，以及我們可以在整個企業中看到更多這樣的事情發生嗎？

Yes. I think that the $25 million is either completed or to be completed in fiscal year '24. So that's the roll forward of what we get done this year. But we've got a lot to go. Like I mentioned previously, I think that the synergy target that we had put in the cryogenic acquisitions was about 20-ish. Some of that requires footprint consolidation over time, which takes longer.

是的。我認為 2500 萬美元要么已經完成，要么將在 24 財年完成。這就是我們今年所做工作的推進。但我們還有很多事情要做。正如我之前提到的，我認為我們在低溫收購中設定的協同目標約為 20 左右。其中一些需要隨著時間的推移進行足跡整合，這需要更長的時間。

So back to my comment about driving that segment to [25], we'll be incurring costs clearly through the first two to three quarters of next year, which will require some more restructuring costs, which will pick up in kind of the further roll forward. So that number that you see in the chart, again, is incurred or to be completed in fiscal year '24.

因此，回到我關於推動該細分市場達到 [25] 的評論，我們將在明年的前兩到三個季度明顯產生成本，這將需要更多的重組成本，這將以進一步滾動的形式增加向前。因此，您在圖表中看到的數字再次發生或將在 24 財年完成。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Hi, Steve.

嗨，史蒂夫。

I'm going to ask an even dumber question than Scott. What is the actual revenue kind of guidance for this year, like the absolute kind of rough number you're guiding to for this year?

我要問一個比史考特更愚蠢的問題。今年的實際收入指導是多少，例如您今年指導的絕對粗略數字？

I don't know. I think we gave you a range in the top line, right at [1] to [3].

我不知道。我想我們在第一行給了你一個範圍，就在 [1] 到[3]。

Right. But off of like, is it like a $7.6 billion number, something like that comes out to?

正確的。但除此之外，它是不是像 76 億美元這樣的數字？

I don't know off the top of my head. (inaudible) got me.

我根本不知道。 （聽不清楚）抓住了我。

I'm kind of, (Laughter) I guess it's not a dumb question.

我有點，（笑聲）我想這不是個愚蠢的問題。

I'm sure we can get it, and you can follow up with Jack to give it to you, but I don't know what the exact baseline number that it comes off.

我確信我們能得到它，你可以跟進傑克把它給你，但我不知道它的確切基線數字是多少。

I think it's [77 ], by my math, just wanted to double check that. So how big are the headwinds?

根據我的數學計算，我認為是[77]，只是想仔細檢查一下。那麼逆風有多大呢？

This is like questions about net interest income and your boss address that. Anyway, keep going.

這就像是關於淨利息收入的問題，你的老闆會解決這個問題。不管怎樣，繼續吧。

Sorry, like total top line absolute sales, kind of important, I think. Don't you think?

抱歉，我認為，就像總收入絕對銷售額一樣，這很重要。你不覺得嗎？

Well, I think that you'd be able to model that. But go ahead.

嗯，我認為你能夠對此進行建模。但繼續吧。

Like don't people ask you like cocktail parties, like how big the company is you run and you kind of throw out $8 billion and stuff like you should know that, right?

就像人們不會在雞尾酒會上問你，例如你經營的公司有多大，你丟掉了 80 億美元之類的問題，你應該知道這些，對嗎？

I'm not a cocktail party guy, but anyway, keep going.

我不是雞尾酒會的人，但無論如何，繼續吧。

The headwind businesses, as we'll call them, how big are those this year? Are those about like $3 billion in total?

我們稱之為逆風企業，今年的規模有多大？這些總共大約是 30 億美元嗎？

No.

不。

[Billion]. Something like that?

[十億]。類似的事情？

I'd have to do the math in my head. I mean, what are we talking on a '24 full year basis?

我得在心裡算算算。我的意思是，我們在 24 全年的基礎上談論什麼？

Yes. I mean just like what were, like the $300 million was off of like what base, like

是的。我的意思是，就像以前那樣，就像 3 億美元是基於什麼基礎一樣，就像

Yes like $1 billion, I'm doing it in the back of my head, it's like $1 billion.

是的，就像 10 億美元，我在腦子裡做這件事，就像 10 億美元。

Yes. Okay. Got it. And as far as like your outlook next year for pricing, is it a little more normal? Is it anywhere that you're seeing any kind of price pressure? Or is it kind of modestly positive or maybe even like a point or something like that for next year?

是的。好的。知道了。至於你明年的定價前景，是不是比較正常一點？您是否在任何地方看到任何價格壓力？或者這是否有點積極，甚至可能是明年的一個點或類似的東西？

Modestly, modest, more mix than anything else, but modestly positive on pricing. And to that end, we've been taking advantage of going long into '25 because input pricing on commodity metals is pretty favorable. So we've been going, actually gone out of the '25 to help that out.

適度，適度，比其他任何東西都更加混合，但在定價方面適度積極。為此，我們一直在利用進入 25 年的長期機會，因為商品金屬的投入定價非常有利。所以我們一直在努力，實際上已經走出了 25 年來幫助解決這個問題。

Okay. And then just one last one for you. For the other businesses, kind of the mixed bag businesses outside of DII, of course, any of those in there that are kind of like on watch for like declines next year? And any that worry you out of the other, not the secular growth, not DII and not the headwind businesses like the other business?

好的。然後再給你最後一張。對於其他業務，當然，DII 以外的混合業務，其中有哪些業務可能會在明年出現類似的下滑？還有什麼讓你擔心的其他業務，不是長期成長，不是 DII，也不是像其他業務那樣的逆風業務？

Try to cover in the commentary. We knew about Belvac. We knew about Maag. We kind of knew, but got it wrong on heat exchangers. There's not another business in the portfolio with that kind of quantum headwind as we look into '25. So the only kind of worry that we would have would be about the macro, and then we'll see.

嘗試在評論中涵蓋。我們知道貝爾瓦克。我們知道馬格。我們有點知道，但在熱交換器上弄錯了。當我們展望 25 年時，我們的投資組合中沒有其他業務會遇到這種量子逆風。因此，我們唯一擔心的是宏觀因素，然後我們就會看到。

Right. Okay. That's all I got. Thanks a lot.

正確的。好的。這就是我所得到的。多謝。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛。

Hey, good morning guys. Tough act to follow there. The, so I'm going to ask Steve's question maybe slightly more positively or glass have full. If I, we're getting to, hopefully, election certainty sometime in the next month or so. Project financing is arguably, hopefully getting better because of interest rates. You've had one of your competitors call out the fact that, that's really impacted their carwash business.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。那裡的行為很難遵守。所以我會更積極地問史蒂夫的問題，或是玻璃已經滿了。如果是的話，我們希望能在下個月左右的某個時候確定選舉結果。可以說，由於利率的影響，專案融資有望變得更好。您的一位競爭對手指出，這確實影響了他們的洗車業務。

As you kind of think through like that macro element, which is both election and interest rates, like, where could you potentially see a benefit to your business? And how do you see that kind of playing out in 2025? And know that you don't have a crystal ball, so your best guess at this point.

當您仔細思考宏觀因素（即選舉和利率）時，您可能會在哪裡看到對您的業務的潛在好處？您如何看待 2025 年這種情況的發生？並且要知道你沒有水晶球，所以此時你最好的猜測是。

Yes. I mean I think we would have hoped that interest rates would have had a bigger impact in the second half of '24 on volume. But I think because of election uncertainty and a variety of other things, you can feel a little bit of caution out there. It's not bad, but it's not, the amount, if we take a look at the amount of quoting that we do for project-based business versus the time that it takes for those quotes to turn into actual orders you can, and this notion of things being pushed that you'll hear a lot about, that's not a fail, right?

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們本來希望利率能夠在 24 年下半年對交易量產生更大的影響。但我認為，由於選舉的不確定性和其他各種因素，你可能會感到有點謹慎。這還不錯，但不是金額，如果我們看一下我們為基於項目的業務所做的報價量與這些報價轉化為實際訂單所需的時間，以及這種概念你會經常聽到的事情被推動，這並不是失敗，對吧？

So, to the extent that cost of capital stays down and that we get some kind of certainty going into '25, I would expect, if we take a look at some of our businesses that you could call kind of like more project related that we would expect that to inflect positively.

因此，在一定程度上，資本成本保持下降，並且我們在進入 25 年後獲得某種確定性，我希望，如果我們看一下我們的一些業務，您可以稱之為更多與我們相關的項目預計這會產生正面影響。

Okay. Fair enough. And then we talked a little bit about the recovery in biopharma, which is awesome to see. The next kind of logical question is like when can we get the margins back up to that 30-plus range. And I know that you're feeling good about the recovery of that business into 2025. And so just kind of any thoughts around getting back to 30% next year.

好的。很公平。然後我們討論了生物製藥領域的復甦，這真是太棒了。下一個邏輯問題是，我們什麼時候才能將利潤率恢復到 30 以上的範圍。我知道您對該業務到 2025 年的復甦感覺良好。所以我想談談明年恢復到 30% 的想法。

Well, it was 29% in the quarter. And that's taking into account, still taking into account that Maag is probably is bottoming now. And by the way, to Maag's credit despite the top line headwinds, their ability to preserve margins during that period was excellent. So to me, it's more of what is going to be the growth rate in biopharma and thermal and single-use pumps, everything that we've got in that particular segment to the extent that it stays on the track that it is, it's all incremental margin positive to the 29% we just posted.

嗯，本季為 29%。考慮到這一點，仍然考慮到馬格現在可能正在觸底。順便說一句，值得稱讚的是，儘管面臨營收逆風，但馬格在這段時間內保持利潤率的能力非常出色。所以對我來說，更多的是生物製藥、熱泵和一次性泵的成長率，我們在這個特定領域所擁有的一切，只要它保持在原來的軌道上，這就是全部增量利潤率達到我們剛剛發布的29%。

Good to hear. Great. Thanks guys.

很高興聽到。偉大的。謝謝你們。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安迪‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Hi, Andy.

嗨，安迪。

Rich with the understanding that you aren't giving out '25. Gus, as you just said, you did say that you could do 40% incrementals with some restructuring talent and mixed benefits. And as you know, you've talked about 25% to 35% long term incremental. So should we get more excited at this point that with accelerated portfolio transformation door is really making that transition to a higher incremental margin capable company or is that a bit premature?

富有的理解是你不會放棄'25。Gus，正如您剛才所說，您確實說過可以透過一些重組人才和混合效益來實現 40% 的增量。如您所知，您已經談到了 25% 到 35% 的長期增量。那麼，在這一點上，我們是否應該感到更加興奮，因為隨著加速的投資組合轉型，門確實正在向具有更高增量利潤能力的公司過渡，還是有點為時過早？

No, I don't think it's premature at all at the end of the day. I mean, we loved ESG, but the fact of the matter is, it was a high growth business that had decremental margins to the greater portfolio. And that's, other than end market cyclicality and bla, bla, blas part of the reason that we took the action that we took. So, and I don't want to keep repeating myself, but if you go back to slide 8, slide 8 is what we talked about back at the last Investor Day, this is where we're investing in organically and inorganically.

不，我認為歸根結底這還為時過早。我的意思是，我們喜歡 ESG，但事實是，這是一項高成長業務，但更大的投資組合的利潤正在遞減。這就是，除了終端市場的周期性和等等，等等，這也是我們採取行動的部分原因。所以，我不想繼續重複自己，但如果你回到幻燈片 8，幻燈片 8 就是我們在上一次投資者日討論的內容，這就是我們進行有機和無機投資的地方。

And hopefully, we should be doing that in businesses that have higher growth rates and higher margin profiles to them. I mean you saw it, you saw it yourself an action when you went down to DFR in Conyers, I mean that CO2 systems business is a high-growth, high incremental margin to the segment business. So it's, we've got all the irons in the fire, whether it's portfolio construction or organic investment or inorganic investment, it's all part and parcel to driving the consolidated segment margin to [25%], right? And we're going to get there by hook or by crook.

希望我們應該在成長率更高、利潤率更高的企業中這樣做。我的意思是，當您前往科尼爾斯(Conyers) 的DFR 時，您看到了這一點，您親眼看到了這一行動，我的意思是，二氧化碳系統業務是該部門業務的高增長、高增量利潤。所以，我們已經全力以赴，無論是投資組合建設、有機投資還是無機投資，這都是將綜合細分市場利潤率推至 [25%] 的重要組成部分，對吧？我們將不擇手段地到達那裡。

Love it. Okay. And then just another question you love around bookings. Just one clarification, like was DCST really the heat exchanger stuff, the big difference in what you thought versus that book-to-bill of one. I know you mentioned macro is maybe still holding some projects back. As you look at Q4, do you see book-to-bill getting closer to one if CST does begin to show some life on the heat exchanger side?

愛它。好的。接下來是您喜歡的有關預訂的另一個問題。只需要澄清一點，就像 DCST 真的是熱交換器的東西一樣，您的想法與從訂單到帳單的巨大差異。我知道你提到宏觀可能仍然阻礙一些項目。當您查看第四季度時，如果 CST 確實開始在熱交換器方面顯示出一些生命力，您是否認為訂單出貨比會越來越接近 1？

It depends on what the order intake is going to be in CO2 systems because we're basically taking bookings assumptions down for heat pumps. So what we had originally forecast for heat pumps is worse going into Q4, which is accommodated into our forecast.

這取決於二氧化碳系統的訂單量，因為我們基本上降低了熱泵的預訂假設。因此，我們最初對熱泵的預測在第四季度會更糟，這已納入我們的預測中。

Whether we can, we know, maybe I shouldn't be that definitive. We expect that we will inflect materially higher in bookings on CO2 systems. It's just a question of whether we can get them from forecasting to orders in Q4 or not.

我們知道，我們是否可以，也許我不該那麼明確。我們預計二氧化碳系統的預訂量將大幅提高。這只是我們能否將它們從第四季度的預測轉化為訂單的問題。

Got it. But it's coming in the next couple of quarters, just a question of when.

知道了。但它會在接下來的幾個季度內出現，只是時間問題。

Yes.

是的。

Helpful. Thanks, Rich.

有幫助。謝謝，里奇。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Mike Halloran, Baird.

麥克·哈洛倫，貝爾德。

Hey, good morning, everyone. So couple quick, couple of quick ones. Just on the comment of managing capacity utilization, I don't think this is of the scale that you would have talked about fourth quarter last year. Is this just tied to the heat exchanger piece? Or is there anything broader? And any comments on inventory levels in the channel?

嘿，大家早安。所以快點，快點。僅就管理產能利用率的評論而言，我認為這不是您去年第四季談論的規模。這只是與熱交換器部件相連嗎？或者有更廣泛的東西嗎？對通路庫存水準有何評論？

Yes. Overall, we'd like to maximize cash flow in Q4, and then depending on how we are in terms of backlog and the delivery assumptions of that backlog, if we believe we can push production performance in January out of Q4, it's prudent to do so at the end of the day, right, because it flexes up cash flow and it preserves fixed cost absorption into next year.

是的。總體而言，我們希望在第四季度實現現金流最大化，然後根據我們的積壓情況和積壓的交付假設，如果我們相信我們可以將一月份的生產業績推向第四季度，那麼謹慎的做法是所以歸根結底，是的，因為它可以增加現金流，並將固定成本吸收保留到明年。

So we'll do that in select businesses in Q4, and that's why we're kind of happy about the results in Q3 because it buys us the room to do that because we don't want to be like trying to protect margin in Q4 by building inventory, right? So it's not nearly what it was back in the beginning of the destocking days where we consciously made a decision to do that across the wider portfolio. This is a more selective comment.

因此，我們將在第四季度的特定業務中這樣做，這就是為什麼我們對第三季度的結果感到高興，因為它為我們提供了這樣做的空間，因為我們不想像在第四季度那樣試圖保護利潤率透過建立庫存，對嗎？因此，這與去庫存初期的情況有所不同，當時我們有意識地決定在更廣泛的投資組合中這樣做。這是一個更具選擇性的評論。

Makes sense. And not beating a dead horse here. I just want to make sure I understand. The 25% margin comments for DCF, that was applicable to the whole segment, not just the gas piece or something more insular (inaudible).

有道理。並沒有在這裡打敗一匹死馬。我只是想確保我理解。DCF 的 25% 利潤率評論適用於整個細分市場，而不僅僅是天然氣或更孤立的領域（聽不清楚）。

The whole segment.

整個段。

(inaudible) the jump. Thank you. Appreciate it.

（聽不清楚）跳躍。謝謝。欣賞它。

Great. Thanks. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。謝謝。

Thank you. That concludes our question and answer period and Dover's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。我們的問答環節和多佛 2024 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。