道爾 (DOV) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Dover's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Speaking today are Richard J. Tobin, President and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Woenker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jack Dickens, Vice President, Investor Relations.

早上好，歡迎參加 Dover 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天發言的有總裁兼執行長理查德·托賓 (Richard J. Tobin)、高級副總裁兼首席財務官克里斯·沃恩克 (Chris Woenker) 和投資者關係副總裁傑克·狄更斯 (Jack Dickens)。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference is being recorded, and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, please disconnect at this time. Thank you.

（操作員指示）女士們，先生們，提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音，您的參與意味著同意我們錄音本次通話。如果您不同意這些條款，請立即斷開連線。謝謝。

I would like to now turn the call over to Mr. Jack Dickens. Please go ahead.

現在我想把電話轉給傑克狄更斯先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Stephanie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. An audio version of this call will be available on our website through August 14, and a replay link of the webcast will be archived for 90 days.

謝謝你，斯蒂芬妮。大家早安，感謝你們參加我們的電話會議。本次電話會議的音訊版本將在我們的網站上提供至 8 月 14 日，網路直播的重播連結將存檔 90 天。

Our comments today will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ from those statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

我們今天的評論將包括基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。由於一些風險和不確定性，實際結果和事件可能與這些聲明不同，這些風險和不確定性在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了討論。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, I will turn this call over to Rich.

說完這些，我會把這通電話轉給里奇。

Thanks, Jack. Let's get started on slide 3. Dover's second quarter results were strong, driven by excellent production performance, positive margin mix from our growth platforms, and carry forward cost actions taken in prior periods.

謝謝，傑克。讓我們從第 3 張投影片開始。都佛集團第二季業績表現強勁，這得益於出色的生產業績、成長平台帶來的積極利潤組合以及前期採取的成本結轉措施。

Top line performance accelerated in the quarter on broad-based shipment growth and short cycle components and outperformance over secular growth exposed end markets. Order trends continued to be positive momentum in the quarter, up 7% year-over-year bolstering our confidence in the second half outlook, with the majority of our third quarter revenue already in backlog. And as an anecdote, July orders are tracking really well going into the back end of the third quarter.

由於廣泛的出貨量成長和短週期組件以及優於長期成長終端市場的表現，本季營收表現加速。本季訂單趨勢持續呈現正面勢頭，年增 7%，增強了我們對下半年前景的信心，第三季的大部分收入已經積壓。有趣的是，進入第三季末，七月的訂單狀況非常好。

Margin performance in the quarter was exemplary with a record adjusted segment EBITDA margins above 25%, as a result of prior period portfolio actions, positive mix from the growth platforms and our rigorous cost containment and productivity actions. Adjusted EPS was up 16% in the quarter.

本季的利潤率表現堪稱典範，調整後的分部 EBITDA 利潤率創下歷史新高，超過 25%，這得益於前期投資組合的舉措、增長平台的積極組合以及我們嚴格的成本控制和生產力行動。本季調整後每股收益成長 16%。

Our solid operational results were complemented by ongoing capital deployment actions. We continue to invest in high ROI organic capital projects, including productivity and capacity expansion as well as targeted footprint optimization.

我們穩健的營運績效與持續的資本配置行動相輔相成。我們繼續投資高投資回報率的有機資本項目，包括生產力和產能擴張以及有針對性的足跡優化。

During the quarter, we also completed two acquisitions of attractive fast-growing assets within our high-priority Pumps and Process Solutions segment. Our balance sheet strength remains an advantage that provides flexibility as we pursue value-creating capital deployment to further expand our businesses in high-growth, high-margin areas.

在本季度，我們也完成了對我們高度重視的泵浦和製程解決方案部門內兩項具有吸引力且快速成長的資產的收購。我們的資產負債表實力仍然是一個優勢，它為我們追求創造價值的資本部署以進一步擴大高成長、高利潤領域的業務提供了靈活性。

We are approaching the second half of the year constructively despite some macroeconomic noise, underlying end mark demand is healthy and is supported by our sustained order rates. As a result, we are raising our full year adjusted EPS guidance to $9.35 to $9.55, which is plus 14% for the full year at midpoint.

儘管存在一些宏觀經濟噪音，我們仍以建設性的方式迎接下半年，潛在的終端市場需求是健康的，並受到我們持續的訂單率的支持。因此，我們將全年調整後每股收益預期上調至 9.35 美元至 9.55 美元，以中位數計算全年每股收益將上漲 14%。

Let's go to slide 5. Engineered Products revenue was down in the quarter on lower -- volumes and vehicle services. We did see improving sentiment and vehicle services as the quarter progressed, most notably in North America where book-to-bill was north of 1. Margin performance for the segment was up on structural cost management and productivity.

我們來看第 5 張投影片。由於產量和車輛服務下降，本季工程產品收入有所下降。隨著本季的進展，我們確實看到市場情緒和汽車服務有所改善，最明顯的是在北美，訂單出貨比超過了 1。該部門的利潤率表現因結構性成本管理和生產力而上升。

Clean Energy and Fueling was up 8% in the quarter, led by strong shipments in clean imaging components, fluid transport and North American retail software and equipment. Margin performance was solid in the quarter, up 80 basis points on volume leverage, higher mix of below ground fueling equipment and restructuring benefit carry forward.

本季清潔能源和燃料業務成長了 8%，其中清潔成像組件、流體運輸和北美零售軟體和設備的出貨量強勁。本季利潤率表現穩健，由於銷售槓桿、地下加油設備組合增加以及重組收益結轉，利潤率上漲了 80 個基點。

Imaging and ID was stable on growth in our core marketing and coating business, partially offset with timing of textiles. Margin performance remains exemplary in the segment at 28% adjusted EBITDA margin. Management actions on cost to serve and structural cost controls continue to drive incremental margins higher.

影像和 ID 在我們的核心行銷和塗層業務中保持穩定成長，但部分受到紡織品成長的影響。該部門的利潤率表現依然出色，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 28%。管理部門對服務成本和結構性成本控制的行動持續推動增量利潤率的上升。

Pumps and Process Solutions was up 4% organically on double-digit growth in single-use biopharma components, thermal connectors for liquid cooling of data centers and digital controls of midstream natural gas compression.

泵浦和製程解決方案部門有機成長 4%，這得益於一次性生物製藥組件、資料中心液體冷卻熱連接器和中游天然氣壓縮數位控制的兩位數成長。

Industrial pumps posted solid results as well, and as forecasted, the long-cycle polymer processing equipment business was down year-over-year. The quoting activity improved in the quarter and book-to-bill was ahead of 1.

工業泵業務也取得了穩健的業績，而正如預測的那樣，長週期聚合物加工設備業務同比下降。本季報價活動改善，訂單出貨比超過 1。

Segment revenue performance, including the acquisition of SIKORA and volume leverage drove margin improvement on excellent production performance and volume and secular growth exposed end markets. Revenue was down in the quarter in climate sustainability on the comparative declines in food retail cases and engineering services, which more than offset the record quarterly volumes in CO2 systems.

分部營收表現，包括收購 SIKORA 和產量槓桿，推動了利潤率的提高，得益於出色的生產性能以及產量和長期增長的終端市場。由於食品零售案例和工程服務的相對下降，本季氣候永續性收入有所下降，但這超過了二氧化碳系統季度創紀錄的收入。

Heat exchanges was up sequentially and year-over-year on record quarterly shipments in North America, where we are actively increasing capacity to accommodate growing demand tied to liquid cooling of data centers.

由於北美季度出貨量創下紀錄，熱交換器銷量環比和同比增長，我們正在積極提高產能，以滿足與數據中心液體冷卻相關的日益增長的需求。

Shipments of heat exchanges for installation in European heat market, heat pumps was down slightly in the quarter but are expected -- in the second half of the year. Despite the lower top line, the segment posted 60 basis points of margin improvement against a difficult comp period on productivity actions and a higher mix of CO2 systems.

本季度，歐洲熱力市場安裝的熱交換器和熱泵的出貨量略有下降，但預計下半年將有所下降。儘管營業收入較低，但由於生產力措施和二氧化碳系統組合增加，該部門的利潤率在艱難的同期仍然提高了 60 個基點。

I'll pass it on to Chris here.

我會把它轉達給克里斯。

Thanks, Rich. Good morning, everyone. Let's go to our cash flow statement on slide 6. Year-to-date free cash flow was $261 million or 7% of revenue, up $41 million over the prior year as year-over-year improvements in operating cash conversion more than offset expected increases in capital spend on growth and productivity projects.

謝謝，里奇。大家早安。我們來看第 6 張投影片上的現金流量表。年初至今的自由現金流為 2.61 億美元，佔收入的 7%，比上年增加 4,100 萬美元，因為經營現金轉換率的同比改善超過了成長和生產力項目資本支出的預期增加。

We expect cash flow generation to accelerate in the second half of the year, in line with historical trends as seasonal working capital liquidation in the third and fourth quarters should more than offset continued investments in productivity, capacity expansion, and cost structure optimization projects, which are expected to generate meaningful benefits into 2026 and beyond.

我們預計下半年現金流產生將加速，符合歷史趨勢，因為第三季和第四季的季節性營運資本清算將足以抵銷對生產力、產能擴張和成本結構優化專案的持續投資，預計這些專案將在 2026 年及以後產生可觀的效益。

Our guidance for 2025 free cash flow remains on track at 14% to 16% of revenue on strong conversion of operating cash flow.

由於經營現金流的強勁轉換，我們對 2025 年自由現金流的預期仍保持在營收的 14% 至 16% 左右。

With that, let me turn it back to Rich.

說完這些，讓我把話題轉回給里奇。

Okay. Let me try as I might, on bookings. Let's give this one a word here. Here, we provide more detail than usual, although I guess the reaction is murky. In the second quarter, Q2 consolidated bookings were up 7% over the prior year. They were also up sequentially, marking a continued momentum across our business.

好的。讓我盡力嘗試預訂。讓我們在這裡對此進行一番論述。在這裡，我們提供比平常更多的細節，儘管我猜反應還不明確。第二季度，合併預訂量較上年同期成長 7%。它們也連續上漲，標誌著我們業務的持續成長勢頭。

Year-to-date book-to-bill is above 1 across all five segments, with particular strength in our highest margin and secular growth markets, an encouraging sign as we move into the second half.

年初至今，所有五個部門的訂單出貨比均高於 1，利潤率最高的市場和長期成長的市場表現尤為強勁，這對於我們進入下半年來說是一個令人鼓舞的信號。

Let's go to slide 8. Slide 8, which highlights several of the end markets that are driving our consolidated growth forecast and our margin between end market data and our customer forecast and our own booking rates, we are encouraged by the outlook in the broader industrial gas complex with cleaner energy components and precision -- clean energy components, single-use biopharma components, CO2 refrigeration systems, and inputs into liquid cooling applications of data centers, which includes our large heat exchanger business.

我們來看第 8 張投影片。幻燈片 8 重點介紹了推動我們綜合成長預測的幾個終端市場以及終端市場數據與客戶預測和我們自己的預訂率之間的差距，我們對更廣泛的工業氣體綜合體的前景感到鼓舞，該綜合體具有更清潔的能源組件和精密度——清潔能源組件、一次性生物製藥組件、二氧化碳製冷系統以及數據中心液體冷卻應用的輸入，其中業務包括我們的大型熱交換器業務。

We have made significant organic and inorganic investments behind these markets, and they remain one of our highest priority areas for investment going forward, which we'll talk about in a minute. In aggregate, these markets now account for 20% of our portfolio and drive attractive margin accretion and expected double-digit growth, which I think we're on track as of the close of Q2.

我們在這些市場背後進行了大量有機和無機投資，它們仍然是我們未來投資的首要領域之一，我們稍後會討論。總體而言，這些市場目前占我們投資組合的 20%，並推動了可觀的利潤率成長和預期的兩位數成長，我認為截至第二季末，我們已步入正軌。

Let's go to slide 9. Our organic investments remain our highest priority of capital deployment. We are moving forward and, in fact, accelerating a number of organic investments despite the near-term uncertainty in the macro sentiment.

我們來看第 9 張投影片。我們的有機投資仍然是我們資本部署的最高優先事項。儘管宏觀情緒近期存在不確定性，但我們仍在向前邁進，事實上，我們正在加速一些有機投資。

Here we show some of our most meaningful and high ROI capital projects that we're undertaking in 2025. You'll see a healthy balance between growth capacity expansions -- behind some of our highest priority platforms as well as productivity and automation investments, including rooftop consolidations.

這裡我們展示了我們在 2025 年開展的一些最有意義且投資回報率最高的資本項目。您將看到，在我們的一些最優先的平台以及生產力和自動化投資（包括屋頂整合）背後，成長能力擴張之間存在著健康的平衡。

So we put in the press release that we were tallying up these savings and provide an update in our next quarterly call as to the absolute quantum of the savings roll forward benefit into 2026. Suffice to say that given the scale of the projects, we expect the savings to be meaningful. This is in line with our goal each year to drive non-revenue profit generation through fixed cost reduction programs. So we're midstream, let's deal with the footprint projects and the reshoring.

因此，我們在新聞稿中表示，我們正在統計這些節省，並在下次季度電話會議上提供有關節省的收益的絕對數量到 2026 年的最新情況。可以肯定地說，考慮到專案的規模，我們預計節省的資金將是可觀的。這符合我們每年透過固定成本削減計劃推動非收入利潤產生的目標。所以我們處於中游，讓我們處理足跡項目和回流。

We're in good shape in terms of the timing. As Chris mentioned, that is going to be reflected in our cash flow or our CapEx projections for the year. So the timing of it and some of these projects are quite complex when we talk about going from eliminating six rooftops, for example.

從時間安排來看，我們的狀況很好。正如克里斯所提到的，這將反映在我們今年的現金流或資本支出預測中。因此，當我們談到從消除六個屋頂開始時，它的時機和其中一些項目是相當複雜的。

By the time we get to Q3, we'll have an idea of the timing of the roll forward of these benefits that are not -- will we catch a bit of it in Q4, maybe, but the vast majority of it will the non-revenue profit of these restructuring.

到第三季時，我們將對這些福利的滾動時間有一個了解——我們可能會在第四季度獲得一些福利，但絕大多數將是這些重組的非收入利潤。

So what you're going to see between now and the end of the year is the CapEx inflect up and the restructuring charges come as we start to take down some of these operations. What was the total roll forward this year?

因此，從現在到年底，你將會看到資本支出增加，而隨著我們開始取消部分業務，重組費用也會增加。今年的總滾動額是多少？

About $30 million.

約3000萬美元。

$30 million of savings are reflected in this year's accounts, and that's why you see with at least year-to-date, not a lot of revenue growth. I think we've got easier comps in the second half of the year, but you see the margin accretion and meaningful contributor to some of those margins as last year's roll forward.

30美元今年的帳目中反映出了數百萬的節省，這就是為什麼你會看到至少從今年到目前為止，收入並沒有太大的成長。我認為，今年下半年我們的業績會比較容易，但隨著去年業績的推進，你會看到利潤率的成長以及部分利潤率的顯著提升。

I would expect that next year would be the same, if not better. The biggest single project that we have is one of the rooftop ones. We'll probably catch that in the latter half of next year.

我希望明年的情況會一樣，甚至更好。我們最大的單一專案是屋頂專案之一。我們可能會在明年下半年實現這一目標。

But let's go to -- when we take a look at what we've taken every year in terms of margin expansion, I mean, it's close to 100 basis points a year. A good portion of that is revenue mix, a variety of things that we're doing in the portfolio, but a meaningful portion of that is, let's call it, productivity.

但是，讓我們看看——當我們回顧一下我們每年在利潤率擴張方面所取得的進展時，我的意思是，它接近每年 100 個基點。其中很大一部分是收入組合，我們在投資組合中做的各種事情，但其中有意義的部分是生產力。

And in our business model, continues at its current trajectory of improving the portfolio, upgrading the mix within individual segments, we also look and put goals on the businesses of meaningful productivity of which a lot of it is things like rooftop consolidation and the reduction of fixed costs.

在我們的商業模式中，我們繼續按照目前的軌跡改善產品組合，升級各個細分市場中的產品組合，我們也專注並設定有意義的生產力業務目標，其中許多是諸如屋頂整合和降低固定成本之類的事情。

So can't give it to you now because I don't want to give you a number that's incorrect. But we think that at minimum, the benefit in '26 is going to be the same -- excuse me, the minimum that we're seeing in '25 will be '26, but the total quantum is going to be larger. That's what's in the pipe. It's just a question of, do we realize it in '26 or '27.

所以現在不能給你，因為我不想給你一個不正確的數字。但我們認為，至少 26 年的收益將會是一樣的——對不起，我們在 25 年看到的最低收益將是 26 年的收益，但總量將會更大。這就是管道裡的東西。問題只是，我們是否會在 26 年或 27 年實現它。

Okay. I got myself off the script. Sure, that's upsetting to everybody. You know what I'll take slide 11. The bottom line is if you look at the margin accretion here, it's upgraded mix.

好的。我不再按照劇本來。當然，這會讓每個人都感到不安。你知道我要看第 11 張投影片嗎？重點是，如果你看這裡的利潤成長，你會發現它是升級的組合。

I'm talking about '25 productivity, all the things I just talked about. There's the look for the back half of the year. So we're not calling for any margin dilution. But you can see in terms of what our organic growth rate is the year, the back half, largely because of the acceleration on our growth platforms and easier comps that we had in the back half of last year. That's why you see the organic growth estimate for the last year.

我談論的是 25 年的生產力，以及我剛才談論的所有事情。這是下半年的展望。所以我們並沒有要求任何利潤率稀釋。但您可以看到，就今年、下半年的自然成長率而言，這主要是因為我們的成長平台加速，而且去年下半年的比較也更容易。這就是您看到去年有機成長預測的原因。

We will go to Q&A in a second, whether there's anything more meaningful there. Oh, I'm sure it -- what do we use for the back half for dollar or euro in the back half?

我們馬上就會進入問答環節，看看是否有更有意義的內容。哦，我確定——後半部分我們用什麼來表示美元或歐元？

Yeah, we have a range of outcomes, but one of them was carrying forward current rates.

是的，我們有一系列的結果，但其中之一就是延續當前的利率。

Right. So look, we back-tested the volatility in the first half of the year and then use that for the second half of the year, you find it -- I can't predict FX, so using prevailing spot rates for the whole back of the year based on the volatility that we saw at the beginning of the year, I think, is a bit ambitious and FX rates, at least dollar, euro stays the same, then that's good for translation and maybe gives us 100 basis points of increased revenue in the back half. So I'm sure we can beat that to death in the Q&A.

正確的。所以你看，我們對上半年的波動性進行了回測，然後將其用於下半年，你會發現——我無法預測外匯，所以根據我們在年初看到的波動性，使用今年全年的現行現貨匯率，我認為這有點雄心勃勃，並且外匯匯率，至少美元、歐元保持不變，那麼這對翻譯來說是件好事，也許我們在下半年的收入會讓我們在下半年的收入增加。所以我確信我們可以在問答環節徹底解決這個問題。

So why don't we go to Q&A? Jack?

那我們為什麼不去問答呢？傑克？

(Operator Instructions) Mike Halloran, Baird.

（操作員指示）麥克·哈洛倫，貝爾德。

A couple of clarifying questions. First, talk about pretty happy with the trajectory through the quarter. Tough organic order comps. But could you just give us a sense for how you thought things played out sequentially through the quarter relative to previous expectations? And frame how things have changed from your perspective going into the back half of the year versus not.

幾個澄清的問題。首先，我對本季的發展軌跡非常滿意。艱難的有機訂單補償。但是，您能否告訴我們，相對於先前的預期，您認為本季的情況如何？並從你的角度描述今年下半年與上半年相比情況發生了哪些變化。

It seems like you're at or above the trajectory you would have been talking about entering the year with the original guide. We decided to deal with some volatility in the middle, but any context there would be great.

看起來，您已經達到或超過了原始指南中關於進入今年的軌跡。我們決定處理中間的一些波動，但任何情況都會很棒。

Look, generally speaking, with all the noise around tariffs and price cost and everything else, clearly, the margin performance through the first half of the year is slightly above expectation.

總體而言，儘管關稅、價格成本和其他所有因素都存在影響，但顯然，上半年的利潤率表現略高於預期。

Now, having said that, we're beginning to lap comps on biopharma and everything else. So that's a big contributor to the mix benefit. I think the only portion of the portfolio that is a little lighter in terms of volume would be on cryogenic components because it seems to be a lot of notional backlog based on talking to our customer that's sliding to the right, and I think that we commented that at the beginning of the year. And I think the traditional refrigeration case business is behind, and that's a pretty big business.

現在，話雖如此，我們開始對生物製藥和其他所有領域的公司進行比較。所以這對混合效益有很大貢獻。我認為，就數量而言，投資組合中唯一較輕的部分是低溫部件，因為根據與客戶的交談，似乎有很多名義積壓訂單正在向右滑動，我想我們在年初就對此發表了評論。我認為傳統的冷藏櫃業務已經落後了，而這是一個相當大的業務。

So that is -- we would have thought that revenue performance there would have been a little bit better, but because of margin mix across the portfolio. Anecdotally, that business is not dilutive to our margins anymore, but it's two for one a little bit between the precision components and the data center business.

所以，我們原本以為那裡的收入表現會好一些，但這是因為整個投資組合的利潤組合所造成的。有趣的是，該業務不再稀釋我們的利潤率，而是精密組件和資料中心業務之間的利潤率相差無幾。

So overall, I mean, I think our expectation in core refrigeration is clearly now going to be behind what we thought at the beginning of the year. But because the growth platforms are so accretive to our margins, 100 basis points there is 200 basis points refrigeration.

所以總的來說，我認為我們對核心冷凍的預期顯然現在將落後於我們年初的預期。但由於成長平台對我們的利潤率有很大的增值作用，所以100個基點可以帶來200個基點的冷卻。

So optically, on book-to-bill, it's $20 million. I think that's the difference for the quarter between, I guess, I should have stopped the last shipment of the month somewhere because then we would have been at 1, and then we won't be hammering that issue. Year-over-year on H1 to the kind of on the sequential. We're still up overall on book-to-bill. And as I said, we went and polled everybody because we haven't closed July yet, but nobody said that the momentum on bookings was poor. So we're starting off Q3 on a bookings basis, it looks good.

因此從訂單出貨比來看，其價值為 2000 萬美元。我認為這就是本季度之間的差異，我想，我應該在某個地方停止本月的最後一批貨物，因為那樣我們就會處於 1 狀態，然後我們就不會再糾結於這個問題了。與上半年相比，年比有所提升。我們的訂單出貨比整體上仍處於上升趨勢。正如我所說的，由於 7 月的交易尚未結束，我們對每個人都進行了調查，但沒有人說預訂勢頭不佳。因此，我們從預訂情況開始第三季度，情況看起來不錯。

So maybe you could bridge the first half to the second half -- or sorry, what's changed in the guidance is maybe the better way to put it? I mean, we --

所以也許你可以將上半部與下半部銜接起來——或者抱歉，指導中發生的變化也許是更好的說法？我的意思是，我們--

Yeah, we're ahead, right, on where we thought we would be, right? So all we're doing is rolling forward where we're kind of head into the back half.

是的，我們領先了，正如我們想像的那樣，對嗎？所以我們所做的就是向前滾動，我們正朝著後半部分前進。

Now, the question is, and we deal with this every year, we deal with at the end of Q3, we will look where we are on bookings momentum, and then we're going to decide what we're going to do in Q4 of whether we cut production performance and maximize cash flow for the year, but we won't make that decision until probably mid this quarter based on bookings momentum and backlog.

現在的問題是，我們每年都會處理這個問題，我們會在第三季末處理這個問題，我們會看看我們的預訂勢頭如何，然後我們會決定在第四季度做什麼，是否要削減生產績效並最大化年度現金流，但我們可能要到本季度中期才會根據預訂勢頭和積壓訂單做出決定。

If I put it in the context of what's changed, though, it's -- you took away the cautionary language from last quarter on the growth. You had SIKORA, maybe a little movement on FX. I don't really want to belabor that.

但是，如果我把它放在變化的背景下，那就是——你從上個季度就拿走了關於成長的警告語言。您有 SIKORA，也許 FX 上有一點動靜。我實在不想過多地談論這一點。

1%.

1%。

Yeah. Bottom line is no real change to the momentum you would have been talking about other than removing the cautionary language.

是的。底線是，除了刪除警告性語言之外，您所談論的勢頭並沒有發生真正的改變。

Yeah. I mean, look, I mean, we're -- EPS at midpoint is 14%. We're aiming towards the top of the range, which is 16% year-over-year, which will put us in time in terms of top quartile to our comps.

是的。我的意思是，你看，我的意思是，我們——中間點的每股盈餘是 14%。我們的目標是達到最高水平，即同比增長 16%，這將使我們在同行業中處於領先地位。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

I wanted to ask about competitive dynamics in the market. You guys have a lot of North America production. You guys compete against a lot of smaller competitors. Are there any verticals where you're starting to see share shifts or maybe it's still too early for that? And is there any change you're seeing in the price environment post the escalation?

我想問一下市場競爭動態。你們有很多北美產品。你們與許多規模較小的競爭對手競爭。您是否開始看到某些垂直領域的份額發生變化，或者現在還為時過早？升級後，您認為價格環境有變化嗎？

Okay. Well, I mean, clearly, on price total cost, we're in a positive position. So we would expect -- we don't see any particular headwinds coming either way, and we are pretty much out with our total pricing that we're putting out. So we expect some accretion in terms of the margin, and that's something unknown pops up in terms of price cost.

好的。嗯，我的意思是，顯然，就價格總成本而言，我們處於積極地位。因此，我們預計——我們不會遇到任何特別的阻力，而且我們公佈的總價格基本上已經確定。因此，我們預期利潤率會有所成長，而價格成本方面則會出現一些未知的情況。

Yeah. I mean our business model is competing with smaller competitors, and that allows us ability to either extract pricing or manage input costs probably more effectively. I can't say yet about share because we won't -- because the dynamic of the restock at the beginning of the Q1 had a lot of restock in there, and now you're just basically booking and shipping based on current conditions of demand.

是的。我的意思是我們的商業模式是與較小的競爭對手競爭，這使我們能夠更有效地提取定價或管理投入成本。我還不能說份額，因為我們不會——因為第一季初的補貨動態中有很多補貨，現在你基本上只是根據當前的需求情況進行預訂和發貨。

Appreciate that. And then maybe just a follow-up on some of the prior questions around the back half. So there's a lot of moving parts here with price, FX acquisitions. Could you just maybe level set. What the guide calls for in volumes in the back half of the year and how that compares to where volumes have been tracking out in the first half?

非常感謝。然後也許只是對後半部分的一些先前的問題進行跟進。因此，這裡有許多與價格、外匯收購有關的變動因素。你能不能只是進行水平設定。該指南對下半年的交易量有何要求？與上半年的交易量相比如何？

There's no dramatic change. So we're -- we've made up some headwinds. I've mentioned refrigeration, maybe some headwinds in terms of demand and vehicle services, at least in the first half. There is amount of rotation because I think that Q1 in biopharma was probably a that was -- that was a little bit of restocking, just because you can see from some of the market participants that are calling for -- there was a restocking in terms of Q1 and now it's pretty -- the growth rate there is probably going to come down in the second half of the year, at least in terms of comps because biopharma and to a lesser extent, thermal connectors had begun to grow. So the relative outperformance will flatten out in the second half of the year.

沒有什麼顯著的變化。所以我們—我們已經克服了一些阻力。我提到了製冷，至少在上半年，需求和車輛服務方面可能會遇到一些阻力。存在一定程度的輪換，因為我認為生物製藥行業第一季可能存在少量的補貨，因為你可以從一些市場參與者那裡看到他們呼籲——第一季度存在補貨，現在相當——下半年的增長率可能會下降，至少從可比數據來看是這樣，因為生物製藥以及在較小程度上的熱連接器已經開始增長。因此，下半年相對優異的表現將會趨於平緩。

And then some of the businesses that have not been as strong in the first half, will start to come back. That's model dilutive to consolidated margins, but not dramatically.

一些上半年表現不太強勁的企業將開始復甦。這種模式會稀釋合併利潤率，但幅度不大。

Steve Tusa, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

So I just wanted to dig into the margins a little more. In the second half here, I mean, obviously, you're coming from a pretty good base. I think you had said on the last call or maybe in the follow-up of Jack, that the total segment incremental would be below -- just below $40 million because of these tariff dynamics. I think where you are today, the jumping off point of the 2Q suggest something a little better than that. Maybe just some rough guidance around what you would expect for total segment incrementals this year for '25?

所以我只是想進一步深入挖掘邊緣。在下半場，我的意思是，顯然，你有一個相當好的基礎。我想您在上次電話會議中或在傑克的後續採訪中說過，由於這些關稅動態，整個部門的增量將低於——略低於 4000 萬美元。我認為，就您今天所處的情況而言，第二季的起點表明情況會比這更好一些。也許只是一些關於您對今年 25 年總體細分市場增量的預期的粗略指導？

Yeah, sure. I mean there's total incrementals, and then there's five business incrementals. And I think as I just said, because of the relative growth rates between H1 and H2, your incremental is going to come down because they are lower-margin businesses as opposed to -- we got off to a really good start in DPPS, for example. So that's going to just flatten out relatively based on the contribution of relative contributions to those revenues. But as you can see -- so it's mix at the end of the day.

是的，當然。我的意思是有總增量，然後有五個業務增量。我認為，正如我剛才所說，由於上半年和下半年之間的相對增長率，您的增量將會下降，因為它們是利潤率較低的業務，而相比之下 - 例如，我們在 DPPS 方面取得了非常好的開端。因此，根據相對貢獻對這些收入的貢獻，這將相對趨於穩定。但正如您所見——最終它還是混合在一起的。

If you look at slide 11, we're calling for everything to be up, but the incremental in aggregate is going to come down. That's kind of what we're looking at.

如果你看第 11 張投影片，我們呼籲一切都上升，但整體增量將會下降。這正是我們所關注的。

And look, you know this, I mean, we're a bit of a short -- the portfolio is more short cycle now than it was in the past just because of the contribution of the longer cycle businesses. And because really, there's no lack of capacity in the market for most of the products that we have.

你知道，我的意思是，我們有點短——現在的投資組合比過去更短週期，只是因為長週期業務的貢獻。因為事實上，我們大多數產品的市場容量並不短缺。

So lead times and visibility going forward on the portfolio is a little bit more difficult. So we're almost kind of guessing every 90 days of how cycle is going to go. We're not going to try to manage the total EBITDA margin of the portfolio.

因此，投資組合的交付週期和未來可見度會更加困難。所以我們幾乎每 90 天就會猜測週期會如何進行。我們不會試圖管理投資組合的總 EBITDA 利潤率。

We do it at the business level on contribution margin, but we don't try to do it at the total. So could it be better, but I think the caution -- based on the forecast that we have today, of the relative contribution, it's more mix-related than pricing or input or anything else. All of that is covered in the full year EPS.

我們在業務層面上根據貢獻毛利來做這件事，但我們不會嘗試在整體上這樣做。所以情況可能會更好，但我認為需要注意的是——根據我們今天的預測，相對貢獻，它比定價或投入或其他任何東西都更與混合相關。所有這些都包含在全年每股收益中。

Right. It just seems to me though that you're -- I think you're trending like [23%,22.6%], something in that range, first half. Your second half just seasonally should be better than that, is my guess, on the second --

正確的。但在我看來，我認為你的趨勢是 [23%，22.6%]，上半年在這個範圍內。我猜，你的下半年應該會比這更好，--

Well, but you need -- what you need to understand, and I hope it's not the case, but if we look and we think that we can catch up on our backlog in Q1 we'll dial down. It will flush as much inventory as we can and keep that production performance for 2026.

好吧，但你需要——你需要理解的是，我希望情況並非如此，但如果我們觀察並認為我們可以在第一季度趕上積壓的工作，我們就會減少數量。我們將盡可能清除庫存，並保持 2026 年的生產績效。

Okay. And then just one last question. You're going to be exiting, I think, like above a 5%, a mid-single-digit type of organic growth rate in the fourth quarter. You've talked about the cost savings. You got a little acquisition tailwind.

好的。最後一個問題。我認為，第四季度的有機成長率將達到 5% 以上，即個位數的中等水平。您談到了成本節約。您獲得了一點收購順風。

I mean, should we think about next year kind of the EPS algo being pretty similar to this year, maybe a little bit better?

我的意思是，我們是否應該認為明年的 EPS 演算法與今年非常相似，甚至可能更好一些？

I got to say, with the margin performance, and I don't see any reason for that to come down, a full year of this incremental margin plus a bigger cost savings target roll forward, we're very excited about what the incremental margin on revenue is going to track to in 2026.

我必須說，從利潤率的表現來看，我認為沒有任何理由下降，全年的增量利潤率加上更大的成本節約目標，我們對 2026 年收入增量利潤率的走勢感到非常興奮。

Got it. That's not murky. That's crystal clear.

知道了。這並不模糊。這太清楚了。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

Rich, pricing obviously really good and it sounds like price is pretty much set here, no surcharge rollback, et cetera. I think the one business that is lagging behind is probably CST probably because demand is quite big there. But I'm just wondering if there's scope for pricing at CST to improve through the year.

里奇，定價顯然非常好，聽起來價格在這裡已經確定了，沒有附加費回滾，等等。我認為落後的一個企業可能是 CST，因為那裡的需求相當大。但我只是想知道 CST 的定價是否還有全年改善的空間。

Let me say, how to pull this apart here. Yeah. I mean the CST is more absorption right now because the core business is $20 million. And that is with a lack of Belvac, and I think we're just going to have to wait for Belvac volume to come back, and we're not even modeling that in at all for the balance of the year. And you were coming off a very big margin on heat exchanges during the tour days of heat pumps in Europe, that is slowly coming up as that market comes.

讓我說一下，如何在這裡將其分開。是的。我的意思是，CST 現在的吸收量更大，因為核心業務價值 2000 萬美元。這是由於 Belvac 產量不足造成的，我認為我們只能等待 Belvac 產量回升，而我們甚至沒有為今年的剩餘產量進行任何建模。在歐洲熱泵巡迴銷售期間，你們在熱交換方面獲得了非常大的利潤，隨著市場的擴大，這一利潤正在慢慢增加。

That's a 25% EBITDA margin business. It's not there today, right? Because as it ramps back up -- and it's going to ramp back up for two reasons that heat pumps are coming back, but they're way below what they were at the peak. But we don't have a ton of dilution there because the data center portion of that business, which is accretive as a product line there comes back.

這是一項 EBITDA 利潤率為 25% 的業務。今天它不在那裡，對嗎？因為隨著熱泵的恢復——熱泵將會恢復，原因有二，但目前熱泵的使用量遠低於峰值。但我們在那裡的股權稀釋並不大，因為隨著產品線的回歸，資料中心業務的部分會不斷增值。

So we believe, right now, making that margin considering the headwinds we had to peak and the fact that we brought back the traditional case business at the volume that we thought we were going to have this year, which I mentioned before, that is slow, that's 20% EBITDA margin.

因此，我們認為，考慮到我們必須達到高峰的阻力，以及我們恢復了傳統案例業務，並且達到了我們認為今年將要達到的規模（我之前提到過，這個規模很慢），我們現在可以實現這個利潤率，即 20% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。

So it's just all mix right now. We've got plenty of room to move it up.

所以現在一切都是混合的。我們有足夠的空間來提升它。

It's also a segment. Obviously, we talked about, we've done a lot of structural cost work. We've got a good tailwind from on our CO2 product line. So we see -- we're also seeing some positive trends there as well out --

也算是片段吧。顯然，我們討論過，我們已經做了很多結構成本工作。我們的二氧化碳產品線獲得了良好的順風。所以我們看到——我們也看到了一些積極的趨勢--

The single biggest productivity project that we have on that slide 9 is in that segment.

我們在第 9 張投影片上列出的最大的生產力項目就屬於這一部分。

Okay. Yes. But the question is more about pricing. I think price was point --

好的。是的。但問題更多的是關於定價。我認為價格是重點--

It's all at the margin.

一切都只是邊緣而已。

Okay. Okay. And then a quick one, just going back to biopharma. You talked about the first half, second half with the restocking, et cetera. But there has been a bit of noise in some of the biopharma -- more life sciences than biopharma.

好的。好的。然後再簡單回顧一下生物製藥。您談到了上半年、下半年的補貨情況等等。但一些生物製藥領域出現了一些噪音——生命科學領域比生物製藥領域更受關注。

Just wondering, are you seeing any project pushes, et cetera, because we are hearing a bit of noise in those markets?

只是想知道，您是否看到任何項目推動等等，因為我們聽到這些市場有一些噪音？

Yeah. It's really hard for us, I mean, we look at the same people that you look at their customers of ours. Remember that ours is more weighted towards in-use product than it is for new builds. As long as the machines that have been delivered are out there and they're running, it's consuming our product. It's not on marginal build of new product.

是的。這對我們來說真的很難，我的意思是，我們關注的人和我們關注的客戶是相同的。請記住，我們更專注於用產品而不是新產品。只要交付的機器還在運行，它就會消耗我們的產品。這不是新產品的邊際建構。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

So the question is, can you talk about any tariff uncertainty impact on orders in the quarter as best as you can tell? And what I'm trying to get to is that was there any pull forward or do you mainly see delays in pushouts?

所以問題是，您能否盡可能詳細地談談關稅不確定性對本季訂單的影響？我想要了解的是，是否存在任何提前的情況，或者主要看到的是推出的延遲？

More of the pushouts.

更多的推出。

And is there a specific vertical or --

是否有特定的垂直或--

Yeah. I mean it's on refrigeration. The non-CO2 portion of refrigeration has been lighter of projects that we had scheduled based on customer discussion slid to the right. And which is not -- it's the retail to the consumer portion of the market companies have more pressure at the end of the day. So to see it in retail food is not surprising overall.

是的。我的意思是它在冷藏中。根據客戶討論，我們安排的項目中，非二氧化碳冷凍部分較輕，並向右滑動。事實並非如此——最終，從零售到消費者市場的公司面臨更大的壓力。因此，在零售食品中看到這種情況總體上並不奇怪。

We look at -- yes. And we look at it as a kind of a proxy. We're shipping CO2 systems at a robust rate. You need cases when you do those systems. So it's just a lag effect.

我們看一下——是的。我們將其視為一種代理。我們正在以強勁的速度運送二氧化碳系統。當你執行這些系統時，你需要案例。所以這只是一個滯後效應。

And then just a follow-up on the pushout. And did you also on cryogenic, is at LNG that's being pushed out?

然後只是對推出的後續行動。您是否也研究過低溫，也就是推出的液化天然氣 (LNG)？

Yeah. Mostly. The whole system, it's the infrastructure build is taking a little bit longer than we would have thought, and we're kind of some of the last things that go in there, including transport. So it's still good. It's just not as robust as customer communication would lead to.

是的。大多。整個系統，其基礎建設所花的時間比我們想像的要長一些，而且我們是最後進入這個系統的，包括交通運輸。所以還是不錯的。它並不像客戶溝通那麼強大。

Well, let me ask you a question about a business where they're probably a little bit more growth. What were bookings for data-centric exposed businesses and specifically thermal connectors and SWEP? You're adding capacity in both. So fair to say you believe in the data center build-out?

好吧，讓我問你一個關於可能會有更大成長的企業的問題。以資料中心為中心的業務，特別是熱連接器和 SWEP 的預訂量是多少？您正在同時增加兩者的容量。那麼，您相信資料中心的建置嗎？

Yeah. I mean, for our small portion of the billions of dollars going into it, yes. I mean what's our growth rate on Thermal connectors year-to-date?

是的。我的意思是，對於我們投入的數十億美元中的一小部分來說，是的。我的意思是今年迄今為止我們的熱連接器的成長率是多少？

50.

50.

50. 50.

50.50.

And SWAP?

還有 SWAP？

Well, I'm sure the percentage -- but it's smaller.

嗯，我確定這個比例──但是比較小。

Smaller starting point.

起點較小。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague），Vertical Research Partners。

Rich, one place where you did confuse me and maybe I haven't had enough coffee this morning, but just on the restructuring, just to be clear. So you're saying the wraparound actions from last year's work is a $30 million benefit this year. And at this point stuff that you're working on this year, you see at least $30 million next year, is that correct?

里奇，你確實讓我感到困惑，也許我今天早上沒有喝夠咖啡，但只是關於重組，只是為了清楚起見。所以您是說去年工作的綜合行動將為今年帶來 3000 萬美元的收益。就今年正在做的事情而言，您預計明年至少會有 3000 萬美元的收入，對嗎？

Yeah. As before, I think the number is going to be bigger. We just want to get the timing of how much is captured in '26, and what the full roll forward is into '27. So you will be able to -- and you'll see it because you'll see it in our CapEx number and you'll see it in our cash flow when we do the restructuring.

是的。和以前一樣，我認為這個數字還會更大。我們只是想知道 26 年捕獲了多少，以及 27 年全面推進的情況。因此您將能夠 - 並且您將看到它，因為您將在我們的資本支出數字中看到它，並且當我們進行重組時，您會在我們的現金流中看到它。

And what is the uncertainty in your mind in kind of tallying up the current actions? Obviously, you would have undertaken those with a return expectation. Is there some really big variability in how these projects really manifest or the fruit that they bear?

在總結目前的行動時，您心中有哪些不確定性？顯然，你會帶著回報期望去承擔這些事。這些項目的實際表現或所取得的成果是否有很大的差異？

Yeah. The footprint ones are difficult. I mean these are building new factories at the end of the day. So we're very careful about the timing. It's not the return.

是的。足跡很難。我的意思是，這些最終都是在建造新工廠。因此，我們對時機的選擇非常謹慎。這不是回報。

The return is going to be material. It's just how much do we get in '26? And then you can't treat all of it as restructuring because you have to run redundant capacity. There's actually a negative cost as you're completing these things. But in terms of where we're tracking on the projects themselves, we're all -- I guess, we're more in front than we are behind.

回報將是實質的。問題是我們在 26 年能得到多少？然後你不能把所有這些都視為重組，因為你必須運行冗餘容量。當你完成這些事情時，實際上會產生負成本。但就我們在專案本身的進展而言，我想，我們的領先程度比落後程度還要高。

And that's why I think that we tipped up CapEx forecast for the year is to accommodate that.

這就是為什麼我認為我們提高今年的資本支出預測是為了適應這種情況。

Right. So the dust should settle on all that as we exit '26, and we should see sort of full run rate in '27 and that's the number you're going to provide for us on the third quarter?

正確的。那麼，當我們退出 26 年時，所有這些都應該塵埃落定，我們應該在 27 年看到滿載運行率，這就是您將在第三季度為我們提供的數字嗎？

Yeah. I'm going to give you a best estimate this coming quarter and then when the timing is.

是的。我將在下個季度給你一個最佳估計，然後確定具體時間。

Okay. Great. And then I'll just pick the kit on the FX, just one more time, so I'm clear. So -- your prior revenue forecast of [2 to 4] assumed no FX, I believe, right? And the [4 to 6] now has one point of FX in it, is that correct?

好的。偉大的。然後我再選擇 FX 上的套件，只需一次，這樣我就清楚了。那麼—我相信您先前對[2 到 4]的收入預測是假設沒有外匯，對嗎？現在 [4 到 6] 中有一個 FX 點，對嗎？

Yeah. Yeah, that's correct. But the way to look at it and it's written down somewhere as -- we're basically taking average FX year-to-date and using that number for the second half.

是的。是的，沒錯。但看待它的方式是，它被寫在某處——我們基本上是採用年初至今的平均外匯匯率，並將該數字用於下半年。

Dean Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Dean Dray。

Just want to circle back on this high-growth opportunity in data center. Can you size for us what it is today combined between the thermal connectors and heat exchangers, what percent of revenues? And would you ever set up like a dedicated team to go after this opportunity? I mean there's industry estimates that there's nine years of backlog. It just seems like are you doing enough to capture your share of wallet?

只是想回顧一下資料中心的這個高成長機會。您能否為我們估算一下目前熱連接器和熱交換器的總收入佔總收入的百分之多少？您是否會組建一支專門的團隊來爭取這個機會？我的意思是，業內估計有九年的積壓訂單。看起來，您是否已經做了足夠多的事情來獲得屬於您的那一份收入？

I'm not going to monetize it for you, Dean, but I can tell you that we are the leaders in the connectors and probably co-leader in the heat exchangers for the market size. We've built out capacity and are building out capacity to accommodate what the projected volumes are.

我不會為你將其貨幣化，迪恩，但我可以告訴你，我們是連接器領域的領導者，並且可能是熱交換器市場規模的共同領導者。我們已經建立了產能，並且正在擴大產能以適應預期的產量。

So I don't expect from a market share point of view that we're going to not be able to compete. I just think that we've got to be careful with this. We saw all those announcements about EV battery plants that turned out to be a lot lower.

因此，從市場佔有率的角度來看，我並不認為我們將無法競爭。我只是認為我們必須小心處理此事。我們看到所有關於電動車電池工廠的公告，但結果卻低得多。

And I'm in no position to say. So we have dedicated teams for both those product lines. So we're known well. It's just very difficult to believe what the size of the capacity that's going to go in. I hope it's higher, right? But we are in front. We are over capacitized in both those products.

而我也沒有資格說。因此，我們為這兩條產品線都配備了專門的團隊。因此我們很有名。很難相信其容量將會達到何種程度。我希望它更高，對嗎？但我們處於領先地位。這兩種產品的產能都過剩了。

That's really helpful. And then if we start thinking about pump margins going forward, how much like, I'll call it, project selectivity? Are you avoiding some lower-margin business and just being able to get a mix up in terms of the types of platforms that you're now targeting?

這真的很有幫助。然後，如果我們開始考慮未來的泵浦利潤率，那麼我稱之為專案選擇性的程度是多少？您是否正在避免一些利潤較低的業務，而只是在您目前所針對的平台類型方面進行混合？

Yeah. I mean if you go back to slide 10, that's part and parcel to the business model. What we've gotten out of you can't see what we've gotten out of inside those individual segments. But we've exited quite a few business lines or geographies based on returns over time.

是的。我的意思是，如果你回到第 10 張投影片，那就是商業模式不可或缺的一部分。我們從中得到了什麼，你無法看到我們從這些單獨的部分中得到了什麼。但根據長期回報，我們已經退出了相當多的業務線或地區。

So -- and that is something that never ends, and then it becomes a question of at what point do you exit businesses like we exited Environmental Services group, that was actually accretive to our margin, but it just wasn't going to carry the valuation for us to be.

所以 — — 這是永無止境的事情，然後就變成了一個問題，在什麼時候退出像我們退出環境服務集團這樣的業務，這實際上增加了我們的利潤，但它不會給我們帶來應有的估值。

So that's what we do on the portfolio side. I think the cycle, the total cash flow of the business and then if we do this correctly, rotate into higher margin portion of the portfolio.

這就是我們在投資組合方面所做的工作。我認為週期、業務的總現金流以及如果我們正確地做到這一點，就會輪換到投資組合中利潤率更高的部分。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

瑞穗的布雷特‧林齊 (Brett Linzey)。

I wanted to come back to tariffs. You had previously sized at $215 million annualized. I think there was $60 million from just the one product line. You're looking to reshore. I guess, first, any update on the $60 million?

我想回到關稅問題上。您之前的規模是每年 2.15 億美元。我認為僅一條產品線就創造了 6000 萬美元的收入。您正在尋求回岸。我想，首先，關於這 6000 萬美元有什麼最新消息嗎？

And then more broadly, did you remark the tariffs back to the higher rates? Or did you let it flow throughout these lower levels for the balance of the year?

那麼更廣泛地說，您是否將關稅調整至更高的水平？或者您是否讓它在全年剩餘時間內流經這些較低的水平？

Yeah. I wish we made paper clips because it would be easy, right? There's a competitive dynamic. There is positioning. There's -- whether you want to grab market share and everything else.

是的。我希望我們製作回形針，因為這樣很容易，對嗎？存在競爭態勢。有定位。無論你是否想搶佔市場份額以及其他一切。

I think in terms of the reassuring, we are on track there. We actually subsequently to Q2 close, I think we put in some more pricing there because of the dynamics of the business, which I won't get into. It just gets to the point when you start trying to parse this across this portfolio. When we have the advantage in that particular market, we should be able to price in excess of any input costs. If it's hyper competitive, then we're going to have to mop it up.

我認為，就保證而言，我們正走在正確的軌道上。實際上，在第二季結束後，我認為我們考慮到業務的動態，對定價進行了調整，對此我不會深入探討。當你開始嘗試解析整個投資組合時，它就達到了這一點。當我們在特定市場擁有優勢時，我們的定價應該能夠超過任何投入成本。如果競爭異常激烈，我們就必須將其消滅。

In terms of productivity actions, and that's why having those productivity actions every year is a little bit of a hedge for the dynamics of the marketplace anywhere.

就生產力行動而言，這就是為什麼每年採取這些生產力行動對任何地方的市場動態都有一定的防範作用。

So the reason we put a slide there, we could argue this thing into the dust. We don't think there's anything in the back half of the year, that's an additional headwind as it relates to tariffs, and you can see the margin performance through the first half and our margin performance on the forecast that we think that, that dynamic will continue. At that point, it's just going to be relative comps that you see outperformance and underperformance relative to H1.

因此，我們在這裡放一張幻燈片的原因是我們可以將這件事爭論到底。我們認為下半年不會出現任何問題，這只是與關稅相關的額外阻力，您可以看到上半年的利潤率表現以及預測中的利潤率表現，我們認為這種動態將會持續下去。到那時，您看到的只是相對於上半年而言表現優異和表現不佳的相對錶現。

Got it. And then just a follow-up on the July order strength encouraging to see. Are there any specific segment drivers? Was it fairly broad-based? And then I guess, is your assumption you'll grow orders year-over-year in Q3, Q4 this year?

知道了。然後對七月訂單強度的後續觀察令人鼓舞。是否有任何特定的細分市場驅動因素？它是否具有相當廣泛的基礎？那麼我想，您是否假設今年第三季、第四季的訂單量將年增？

With a margin of error of 100 basis points, please. Yes, right now, we're tracking -- that would indicate after July that book-to-bill is going to be solid.

請將誤差幅度設為 100 個基點。是的，現在，我們正在追蹤——這表明七月之後訂單出貨比將會很穩定。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞。

When you think about the demand impact of elevated uncertainty in tariffs and just as you've had conversations with customers over the course of the last couple of months and talking to your business leaders, what is it that folks are now looking at most closely that would drive some relief from the uncertainty overhang on demand?

當您考慮關稅不確定性增加對需求的影響時，正如您在過去幾個月與客戶和業務領導人交談時一樣，人們現在最關注的是什麼，可以緩解需求的不確定性？

Well, I mean, we deal with some incredibly large customers that I'm sure cost of capital is important in a variety of other things. And so one could argue that there's some very large projects that are waiting for cost of capital to come down to make the projects return higher. There are some customers that have significantly higher exposure to tariffs than we do, right? And then they're trying to manage that situation. So it becomes a very big plethora.

嗯，我的意思是，我們與一些非常大的客戶打交道，我確信資本成本在其他各種事情中都很重要。因此，有人可能會說，一些非常大的專案正在等待資本成本下降，以使專案獲得更高的回報。有些客戶受到的關稅影響比我們高很多，對嗎？然後他們試圖控制這種情況。因此，它變得非常多。

In any given year, when you have a mix of kind of consumable businesses and project businesses, they tend to run the same. There's really very few outliers. And I said that at the end of Q2 or end of Q1, that you could sense some reticence in bigger projects because of a variety of different reasons. It doesn't mean the projects go away, but there's just a little bit of a drift to the right. In our particular case, nothing really changes in the second half than we -- from our first half trajectory because we are not -- I don't think our expectations for retail refrigeration are going to be the same, right?

在任何一年中，當您擁有多種消費品業務和專案業務時，它們的運作方式往往相同。異常值確實非常少。我說過，在第二季末或第一季末，由於各種不同的原因，你可以感覺到一些大型專案的沉默。這並不意味著項目會消失，只是有一點點向右偏移。就我們的具體情況而言，下半年並沒有什麼變化——與我們上半年的軌跡不同，因為我們不是——我認為我們對零售製冷的期望不會是一樣的，對吧？

There's only six months left, so that's going to drift to the right. But we have so many businesses with so many fingers and so many pies, there's no overriding nature other than just macro uncertainty, but we seem to be doing reasonably well. Like I said, the back -- the second half of the year is just an element of higher core growth rate just because of mix and comps.

只剩下六個月了，所以時間會向右漂移。但是，我們的業務如此之多，涉及的領域如此之廣，除了宏觀不確定性之外，沒有其他壓倒性因素，但我們似乎做得相當不錯。就像我說的，下半年只是核心成長率較高的因素，只是因為產品組合和比較。

And then just a clarification related to that. So the revenue growth, the 2 to 4 going to 4 to 6, that move is --

然後只是對此進行澄清。因此，收入成長，從 2 到 4，到 4 到 6，這項舉措是--

One point of FX, one point acquisition and then comps the other...

一個 FX 點，一個採集點，然後與另一個點組合...

Okay. And so that is -- yeah, you haven't taken out the point of conservatism that you put in a quarter ago. It's FX --

好的。是的，你並沒有消除一個季度前提出的保守主義觀點。這是 FX——

Well, I mean, optically, yes, we have. But it is basically the same forecast in terms -- or one point -- it depends if you want to take bottom quartile or top quartile, it's 6 we added back.

嗯，我的意思是，從視覺上來說，是的，我們有。但從本質上來說，這是相同的預測——或者說一個點——這取決於你想取下四分位數還是上四分位數，我們加回了 6。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just wanted to understand, again, I realize there's a lot of moving parts and so on. But is the broad brush organic sales growth assumption that you accelerated slightly from first to second quarter year-on-year on organic revenue firm-wide, a gradual acceleration in the third and then a sort of larger step-up in the fourth quarter. Is that the way to think about it. And I suppose the more back-end loaded type ramps are at DEP and DCST?

也許只是想再次了解，我意識到有很多活動部件等等。但是，廣義的有機銷售成長假設是，從第一季到第二季度，全公司有機收入較去年同期略有成長，第三季逐漸加速，第四季出現更大幅度的成長。是這樣思考的嗎？我認為後端裝載類型的坡道更多位於 DEP 和 DCST 處？

Generally, yes. I think if there's any conservative -- would you could call conservative in the back is we're going to get FX wrong and it's going to be what current spot is. Yes, it's in our lower-margin businesses, which, by the way, I mean, no one said anything that we hit 25% EBITDA in consolidation, which no one would have thought, not too long ago. Yes, it's just a little bit of mix relative to the total revenue.

一般來說是的。我認為如果有任何保守的——你能稱之為保守的嗎？那就是我們會弄錯外匯，而它將會是當前的情況。是的，這是我們利潤率較低的業務，順便說一句，我的意思是，沒有人說我們在合併時達到了 25% 的 EBITDA，不久之前也沒有人會想到這一點。是的，相對於總收入來說，這只是一點點混合。

I don't think we did leave ourselves some room in Q4, but we talk about this every year. We're going to make a decision in another month or two what the strategy is going to be. If we see an acceleration in order rates -- during Q3 leading into Q4, we may take production performance up in Q4, which is positive from a margin point of view.

我認為我們在第四季度確實沒有給自己留下一些空間，但我們每年都會談論這個問題。我們將在一兩個月內決定採取何種策略。如果我們看到訂單率在第三季到第四季之間加速上升，我們可能會提高第四季的生產績效，從利潤率的角度來看，這是正面的。

That's helpful. And then just you -- we can see the sort of headline bookings number for the second quarter and you talked a little bit about July. Was the broad sense of demand in recent months, the book-to-bill, I suppose, in the second quarter may be a touch below plan, but nothing to get worried about and overall demand was fairly steady across your sort of largest customer categories in recent months. I guess was there any sign of sort of volume elasticity as price started to move up anything like that, that sort of changed in the last couple of months?

這很有幫助。然後，我們可以看到第二季的預訂量數據，您也談到了七月的情況。就近幾個月的需求而言，我認為第二季的訂單出貨比可能略低於計劃，但無需擔心，近幾個月來，各大客戶類別的整體需求都相當穩定。我想，隨著價格開始上漲，是否存在某種成交量彈性的跡象，這種情況在過去幾個月裡發生了變化？

Well, look, we've tried to pick a part this book-to-bill based on seasonality. And if you go back over time, it's actually down in Q2 and then ramps up in Q3. But -- the only one that I would say is that from bookings, we would have thought in Q2 that refrigeration would have been better.

好吧，你看，我們已經嘗試根據季節性來挑選訂單出貨比的一部分。如果回顧一下，你會發現它在第二季度實際上是下降的，然後在第三季度上升。但是——我唯一想說的是，從預訂情況來看，我們認為第二季的冷氣效果會更好。

So we've taken out our full year forecast in refrigeration, just not the CO2 business because the margin was actually up but on just the standard case business, I think it's running out of time to meet our expectations that was built into the forecast. And then port, as I mentioned before, the portfolio arguably is more short term today than it was in the past.

因此，我們取消了冷凍業務的全年預測，但不包括二氧化碳業務，因為利潤率實際上上升了，但就標準業務而言，我認為我們已經沒有時間滿足預測中的預期了。然後是港口，正如我之前提到的，今天的投資組合可以說比過去更短期。

And we're not worried about bookings in the quarter and the fact that it's begun to ramp up. If you back test that over the last 5 years, it's doing what it has always been. So -- no, I don't think anything has changed in terms of booking. We always worry about we've had great bookings that does it just come down in the back half of the year as our customers clear the inventory, we don't generally. What we almost take it 90-day in increments from where we are.

我們並不擔心本季的預訂量以及預訂量已經開始上升的事實。如果你對過去 5 年的情況進行回測，你會發現它的表現與以往一樣。所以——不，我認為預訂方面沒有任何變化。我們總是擔心，我們已經有大量的預訂量，但隨著客戶清理庫存，下半年的預訂量是否會下降，但通常不會。我們幾乎以 90 天為增量從現在開始。

So based on what we see in July, we're encouraged by the trajectory of the bookings.

因此，根據我們七月看到的情況，我們對預訂趨勢感到鼓舞。

Thank you. Our final question will come from Scott Davis with Melius research.

謝謝。我們的最後一個問題來自 Melius 研究公司的 Scott Davis。

Question last -- last but not least, I hope, but -- yes. The -- we just went through an entire call and no one asked about M&A, which I find interesting because they're the portfolio itself, I don't think can drive 16% EPS growth forever without a healthy dose and velocity of M&A. So where the SIKORA deal looks interesting? Are there other SIKORA out there? Are there -- how do you guys kind of think about that?

最後一個問題——我希望是最後一個但並非最不重要的問題，但——是的。我們剛剛進行了一次電話會議，沒有人問到有關併購的問題，我覺得這很有趣，因為它們是投資組合本身，我認為如果沒有健康的併購劑量和速度，就不可能永遠推動 16% 的每股收益增長。那麼 SIKORA 交易看起來有什麼有趣之處嗎？還有其他 SIKORA 嗎？你們對此有什麼看法？

And do you disagree with my statement? I guess, too, because --

您不同意我的說法嗎？我想也是，因為--

I'm glad you asked it. Yes. Look, I mean, at the end of the day, we never get any credit for capital deployment. So -- that's just the way it is to a certain extent at all. I will tell you that we've got close to $400 million in revenue under LOI, meaning that we've got letter of intent on a total of $400 million worth of revenue.

我很高興你問了這個問題。是的。你看，我的意思是，到最後，我們從來沒有因為資本部署而獲得任何讚譽。所以——從某種程度上來說，情況就是這樣的。我可以告訴你們，我們在意向書下獲得了近 4 億美元的收入，這意味著我們已獲得總價值 4 億美元的收入的意向書。

Realistically, I can tell you I've got 50, but real M&A that gets consummated within six to eight months. Will we transact on all of them? No. But can we transact between now and the end of the year on it?

實際上，我可以告訴你，我有 50 個真正的併購案例，這些案例會在六到八個月內完成。我們會對所有交易進行交易嗎？不。但是從現在到年底我們能進行交易嗎？

Absolutely, we can. So the -- so capital deployment is important to us. I think the nature of our capital employment is going to be what you've seen over the last 5 years. So no big swings, but part and parcel for us to continue driving the margin up of the portfolio M&A is a factor. There's been not a lot of deals out there.

當然可以。因此，資本部署對我們來說很重要。我認為我們的資本運用的性質將會和過去五年來所看到的情況一樣。因此，雖然沒有太大的波動，但對於我們來說，繼續提高投資組合併購的利潤率是一個重要因素。目前還沒有太多的交易。

So this notion of what is customer expectation and the deals aren't coming to market because everybody is waiting for the cost of capital to come down, blah, blah, blah. But the deals that we have out there for the most part are proprietary deals. They're not auctions. Where the nature of the businesses are low in execution risk because of the size of the deals. So I feel pretty good despite the lack of deals coming to market. I like the ones that we've got in the piping.

因此，這種關於客戶期望的概念以及交易尚未進入市場，因為每個人都在等待資本成本下降，等等等等。但我們進行的交易大部分都是專有交易。它們不是拍賣。由於交易規模較大，因此業務執行風險較低。因此，儘管市場上沒有達成任何交易，但我感覺還不錯。我喜歡我們在管道中得到的那些。

Yeah. That makes sense. I got to ask this question. I mean, you mentioned 20% of your portfolio growing double digits, but secular growth platforms that all makes sense. But -- what does that imply for the other 80%?

是的。這很有道理。我得問這個問題。我的意思是，您提到您的投資組合中有 20% 實現了兩位數成長，但長期成長平台都是有道理的。但是——這對另外 80% 的人來說意味著什麼？

And -- simple answer is always GDP, but not all our children can be above average. So how do you think about the other 80% in aggregate? And I guess maybe a different way to ask questions, what do you think your entitlement growth rate is in this new portfolio? Because it has -- Dover has changed a fair amount since you've gotten there.

而且——簡單的答案始終是 GDP，但並非所有孩子都能高於平均。那麼，您整體上如何看待剩下的 80%？我想也許可以用不同的方式來提問，您認為這個新投資組合中的權益成長率是多少？因為自從你來到這裡，多佛已經發生了很大變化。

Yeah, I mean, I don't want to back into the GDP one. I think what's important in terms of the platforms, is four of the five are organically driven. So in terms of what that growth four out of the five is a reflection of that we actually have stepped up R&D over the last six years. So that's the fruit kind of our own labor, which I think is sometimes lost in the conversation.

是的，我的意思是，我不想回到 GDP 問題。我認為就平台而言重要的是，五個平台中有四個是有機驅動的。因此，就成長而言，五個中的四個反映出我們在過去六年中實際上加強了研發。這就是我們自己勞動的成果，但我認為在談話中有時會被忽略。

The only one of those on slide 8, that is largely driven by M&A as the clean energy component business, which has changed the dynamics of the value of what was the Fueling Solutions business.

第 8 張投影片中唯一一家主要由清潔能源組件業務的併購推動的公司，改變了燃料解決方案業務的價值動態。

So yeah, I mean, I don't want to go through them one by one, but we have different business models that we're running here. We're running some that looks like they don't grow, but it's us just exiting portions of those portfolios that just are never going to reach the value that we want.

是的，我的意思是，我不想一一介紹，但我們在這裡運行不同的商業模式。我們正在經營一些看起來不會成長的項目，但我們只是退出了那些永遠無法達到我們想要的價值的投資組合的一部分。

So if you went back and looked over time of the clean energy business and you take away the acquisitions that were made there, we willingly shrunk portions of that business. Same thing with refrigeration.

因此，如果你回顧一下清潔能源業務的歷史，並去掉在那裡進行的收購，你會發現我們自願縮減了部分業務。冷藏也是一樣。

We exited -- I would venture to say a couple of hundred million worth of revenue because it wasn't providing the returns that we wanted. And that's why you see the margin accretion. And that business go significantly higher than where it was in the past.

我們退出了——我敢說損失了價值幾億美元的收入，因為它沒有提供我們想要的回報。這就是你看到利潤成長的原因。而且這項業務的業績比過去有了顯著提升。

So I know it's hard to read through because it looks like, hey, wait a minute, this thing doesn't grow. But we've been up until very recently, shrinking organically to wilfully drive value within the portfolio by bringing the margins up, which I think we like the businesses that we have now.

所以我知道它很難讀完，因為它看起來像，嘿，等一下，這個東西沒有長大。但直到最近，我們一直在透過提高利潤率來有機地縮減業務，以有意推動投資組合的價值，我認為我們喜歡現在的業務。

And I think go forward, you'll see the real organic growth rate as opposed to kind of us cleaning up the portfolio over time.

我認為，展望未來，你會看到真正的有機成長率，而不是我們隨著時間的推移清理投資組合。

That makes a ton of sense. I appreciate the integrity of the answer in the honesty.

這很有道理。我欣賞答案的誠實和完整性。

Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer period and Dover's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。我們的問答環節和 Dover 2025 年第二季財報電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了，祝您有美好的一天。