道爾 (DOV) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Dover's Third Quarter 2023 Third Earnings Conference Call. Speaking today are Richard J. Tobin, President and Chief Executive Officer; Brad Cerepak, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Andrey Galiuk, Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded, and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you don't agree with these terms, please disconnect at this time. Thank you.

早上好，歡迎參加 Dover 2023 年第三季第三次收益電話會議。今天發言的是總裁兼執行長 Richard J. Tobin； Brad Cerepak，資深副總裁兼財務長； Andrey Galiuk，企業發展與投資者關係副總裁。 （操作員說明）女士們先生們，請注意，本次電話會議正在錄音，您的參與即表示您同意我們對本次電話會議進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，請此時斷開連線。謝謝。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Andrey Galiuk. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話轉給安德烈·加柳克先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Angela. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. An audio version of this call will be available on our website through November 14, and a replay link of the webcast will be archived for 90 days. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ from those statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，安吉拉。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。本次電話會議的音訊版本將於 11 月 14 日之前在我們的網站上提供，網路廣播的重播連結將存檔 90 天。我們今天的評論將包括基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。由於許多風險和不確定性，實際結果和事件可能與這些聲明有所不同，這些風險和不確定性在我們的 SEC 文件中進行了討論。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, I will turn this over to Rich.

有了這個，我會把它交給里奇。

Okay. Thanks, Andrey. We posted very encouraging results in what is -- dynamic operating environment across our different end markets and geographies. Revenue and order rates improved sequentially in the quarter on normalizing lead times and inventories, improving demand across several end markets and a return to normal seasonality. Our backlog continued to normalize in the quarter, in tandem with lead times as we shipped longer-dated orders from our books.

好的。謝謝，安德烈。我們在不同終端市場和地區的動態營運環境中取得了非常令人鼓舞的成果。由於交貨時間和庫存正常化、多個終端市場的需求改善以及正常季節性的回歸，本季收入和訂單率連續改善。我們的積壓訂單在本季度繼續正常化，與我們從帳簿中運送較長期訂單的交貨時間同步。

Broadly speaking, margin performance in the quarter was exceptional, reaching an all-time high driven by productivity, cost controls and disciplined pricing, which more than offset the negative product mix in Pumps & Process Solutions. The proactive structural cost actions we have undertaken over the last 12 months are paying dives and should support strong margin conversion going forward.

總體而言，本季的利潤率表現非常出色，在生產力、成本控制和嚴格定價的推動下達到了歷史最高水平，這足以抵消泵浦和製程解決方案領域產品組合的負面影響。我們在過去 12 個月中採取的積極的結構性成本行動正在取得成效，並應支持未來強勁的利潤率轉換。

Our recent portfolio moves, the acquisition of FW Murphy the sale of DESTACO followed the portfolio intent and priorities that we reiterated at our Investor Day earlier in the year and continued portfolio evolution towards higher growth and higher return businesses at attractive valuations. Our balance sheet position and cash flow are strong and provide attractive optionality as we continue to pursue bolt-on acquisitions in a more favorable M&A environment and evaluate opportunistic capital return strategies.

我們最近的投資組合變動，收購FW Murphy 和出售DESTACO，遵循了我們在今年早些時候的投資者日重申的投資組合意圖和優先事項，並繼續以有吸引力的估值朝著更高增長和更高回報業務的方向發展投資組合。我們的資產負債表狀況和現金流強勁，並提供有吸引力的選擇，因為我們繼續在更有利的併購環境中進行補強收購，並評估機會性資本回報策略。

We have reduced our EPS guidance for the full year and are now targeting the low end of the previous guidance range. This is driven by continued lag in biopharma recovery that we expected to happen in the second half of the year, temporary cost and supply chain issues that I'll expand upon later and a general trend towards inventory liquidation across supply chains as a result of macro uncertainty and prohibitive carrying costs, I'll cover the specifics in the segment commentary.

我們降低了全年每股獲利指引，現在的目標是先前指引範圍的低端。這是由於生物製藥復甦持續滯後（我們預計將在今年下半年發生）、臨時成本和供應鏈問題（我稍後將詳細闡述）以及宏觀經濟形勢導致的整個供應鏈庫存清算的總體趨勢推動。由於不確定性和高昂的持有成本，我將在部分評論中介紹具體細節。

Overall, demand remains good across the portfolio, considering the plentiful negative macro headlines. Our new product launches and capacity additions and identified areas of growth are all on track, and we expect that our fourth quarter production posture will help balance our channel inventories while prevailing demand, lead times and inventory carrying costs by the end of 2023. We are increasingly convinced that inventory position will be critical to the pricing dynamic and financial results moving into 2024.

總體而言，考慮到大量負面宏觀新聞，整個投資組合的需求仍然良好。我們的新產品推出、產能增加以及已確定的成長領域均步入正軌，我們預計第四季度的生產狀況將有助於平衡我們的通路庫存，同時到2023 年底當前需求、交貨時間和庫存持有成本。人們越來越相信，庫存狀況對於 2024 年的定價動態和財務表現至關重要。

Going into 2024, we expect to see growth in our bookings driven by secular growth exposed and recovering end markets, and we expect to carry an elevated backlog into next year in select businesses. Between our demand outlook, flexible business model and in-flight structural cost actions, we see good foundation for our value creation in 2024.

進入 2024 年，我們預計，在長期成長和終端市場復甦的推動下，我們的預訂量將出現成長，並且我們預計某些業務的積壓量將增加到明年。在我們的需求前景、靈活的商業模式和正在進行的結構性成本行動之間，我們看到了 2024 年價值創造的良好基礎。

Let's move on to the performance highlights on Page 4. Consolidated revenue was down 2% in the quarter despite sequential growth in 4 out of 5 segments. Bookings were up sequentially, but down 4% organically year-over-year, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.93, reflecting better lead times and strong shipments against our longer-dated orders. As a result, our backlog continued to normalize, but remains elevated relative to prepandemic levels.

讓我們繼續討論第 4 頁的業績亮點。儘管 5 個細分市場中的 4 個細分市場實現了環比增長，但本季度的綜合收入仍下降了 2%。預訂量較上季成長，但年比有機下降 4%，訂單出貨比為 0.93，反映出我們的長期訂單有更好的交貨時間和強勁的出貨量。因此，我們的積壓繼續正常化，但相對於大流行前的水平仍然較高。

Segment margins were up 50 basis points to 21.7%, a record since the Apergy spin as broadly based productivity and portfolio improvements were more than able to offset biopharma mix. Adjusted EPS was up 4% to $2.35 in the quarter and positive price/cost dynamics, together with cost containment actions, strong execution, more than offset lower volumes.

部門利潤率成長了 50 個基點，達到 21.7%，這是自 Apergy 分拆以來的記錄，因為廣泛的生產力和產品組合的改進足以抵消生物製藥組合的影響。本季調整後每股盈餘成長 4%，達到 2.35 美元，積極的價格/成本動態，加上成本控制措施和強勁的執行力，足以抵銷銷售下降的影響。

Let's go to Slide 5. Engineered Products was down 3% organically in the quarter. General weakness in Europe and Asia, together with lower shipments in vehicle service, more offset the record quarter in aerospace and defense and strong shipments in waste hauling. Order rates in the segment were up 12% organically in the quarter, primarily driven by waste handling business, which continues to take capacity reservations well into 2024. Margins at 20% were up 260 basis points year-over-year driven by a better mix of recurring and aftermarket revenue, price/cost and productivity investments made in previous periods.

讓我們看投影片 5。工程產品在本季有機下降了 3%。歐洲和亞洲的普遍疲軟，加上車輛服務出貨量的下降，更多地抵消了航空航天和國防領域創紀錄的季度業績以及廢物運輸領域的強勁出貨量。該部門的訂單率在本季度有機增長了 12%，主要是由廢物處理業務推動，該業務在 2024 年繼續保留產能。在更好的組合推動下，20% 的利潤率同比增長 260 個基點以前期間的經常性和售後收入、價格/成本和生產力投資。

I'd like to mention the announcement of our agreement to divest DESTACO, one of the operating units within the Engineered Products segments and an attractive valuation. This is not related to (inaudible) performance, but believe the valuation we achieved underscores the quality and strong performance of the businesses that we have proven to have best-in-class operating margin and less cyclicality than typical capital goods businesses.

我想提一下我們宣布的剝離 DESTACO 的協議，DESTACO 是工程產品領域的營運單位之一，估值頗具吸引力。這與（聽不清楚）業績無關，但相信我們實現的估值強調了業務的品質和強勁業績，我們已證明這些業務比典型的資本貨物業務擁有一流的營業利潤率和更少的周期性。

Clean Energy & Fueling revenue was flat organically in the quarter. We saw double-digit growth in components for LNG and hydrogen markets. And the above-ground retail fueling business returned to growth as opposed EMV recovery is in progress. High interest rates led to project pushouts in vehicle wash and an unforecasted channel destocking has resulted in slower activity in LPG components and below ground fueling, which are highly margin accretive to the segment. Margins in the quarter were up -- were at 20%, were up 40 basis points on structural cost actions in our retail fueling business and solid execution more than offset negative mix.

本季清潔能源和燃料收入有機持平。我們看到液化天然氣和氫氣市場的零件出現了兩位數的成長。地上零售加油業務恢復成長，而 EMV 復甦正在進行中。高利率導致洗車項目被淘汰，而不可預見的通路去庫存導致液化石油氣零部件和地下加油活動放緩，而這對該領域的利潤率有很大提升。本季的利潤率上升了 20%，由於我們零售加油業務的結構性成本行動和穩健的執行力，利潤率上升了 40 個基點，足以抵消負面影響。

Imaging & ID was down 4% organically as slowing demand in China and a difficult comparable period in marking and coding printer shipments more than offset the growth of serialization software and marking and coding consumables and professional services. Margins in Imaging & ID was strong at 26%, though down year-over-year against an all-time record high for the segment in the comparable quarter.

由於中國需求放緩以及標記和噴碼印表機出貨量的困難時期，成像和 ID 業務自然下降了 4%，這遠遠抵消了序列化軟體、標記和噴碼耗材以及專業服務的成長。成像和 ID 領域的利潤率強勁，達到 26%，但與同期該領域的歷史最高紀錄相比有所下降。

Pumps & Process Solutions was down 7% organically in the quarter. Precision Components and hygienic dosing systems posted another quarter of excellent growth, but were more than offset by the continued softness in biopharma. Industrial pumps and polymer processing were stable in the quarter. Segment margin of 27% was down to the lower mix of biopharma revenue.

泵浦和製程解決方案業務本季有機下降 7%。精密元件和衛生劑量系統又實現了一個季度的出色成長，但被生物製藥領域的持續疲軟所抵消。工業泵浦和聚合物加工本季保持穩定。生物製藥收入組合較低，導致該部門利潤率下降至 27%。

Top line in Climate & Sustainability Technologies up 2% organically. CO2 systems continued its double-digit growth trajectory. Heat exchanger shipments remained strong in North America and Europe, though we experienced the beginning of demand headwinds in Asia. The segment posted strong margin performance of 18% in the quarter with our food retail business or refrigeration business operating at a robust 15% margin. The steady margin improvement trajectory in refrigeration has been noteworthy as positive mix and productivity investments have driven excellent margin conversion. We expect the margin improvement trend to continue for the whole segment.

氣候與永續發展技術領域的營收有機成長 2%。二氧化碳系統持續保持兩位數的成長軌跡。儘管我們在亞洲經歷了需求逆風，但北美和歐洲的熱交換器出貨量仍然強勁。該部門本季的利潤率表現強勁，達到 18%，其中我們的食品零售業務或冷凍業務的利潤率高達 15%。由於積極的組合和生產力投資推動了出色的利潤轉換，製冷領域的利潤率穩步改善軌跡值得注意。我們預計整個細分市場的利潤率改善趨勢將持續。

I'll pass it on to Brad here.

我會把它轉給布拉德。

Thanks, Rich. Good morning, everyone. I'm on Slide 7. The top bridge shows our organic revenue decline of 2%. Both acquisitions and FX translation contributed positive 1% to the top line in the quarter. FX, which has been a headwind for the past 1.5 years resulted in $0.02 of positive EPS impact in the quarter. Based on recent movement in the euro-dollar exchange rate, we now expect FX to be a $0.01 to $0.02 headwind in the fourth quarter.

謝謝，里奇。大家，早安。我在幻燈片 7 上。頂橋顯示我們的有機收入下降了 2%。收購和外匯折算為本季的營收貢獻了 1% 的正值。在過去 1.5 年裡，外匯一直是不利因素，導致本季 EPS 產生 0.02 美元的正面影響。根據近期歐元兌美元匯率的走勢，我們現在預計第四季外匯將出現 0.01 至 0.02 美元的逆風。

From a geographic perspective, the U.S., our largest market, is down 7% in the quarter due to lower shipments in vehicle service, biopharma, LPG components and below-ground retail fueling. Europe was down 5% and Asia was down 3%. China, which represents about half of our revenue base in Asia, was down 5% organically in the quarter. On the bottom chart, bookings were down year-over-year due to normalization of lead times and strong shipments against elevated backlogs.

從地理角度來看，由於車輛服務、生物製藥、液化石油氣零件和地下零售加油領域的出貨量下降，我們最大的市場美國本季下降了 7%。歐洲下跌 5%，亞洲下跌 3%。中國約占我們亞洲收入基礎的一半，本季有機下降了 5%。在底部圖表中，由於交貨時間正常化以及積壓增加而出貨量強勁，預訂量同比下降。

Now on our cash flow statement, Slide 8. Year-to-date, free cash flow came in at $688 million or 11% of revenue, represented an increase of nearly $400 million year-over-year. As discussed previously, with supply chains improving, we have begun actively working to liquidate our working capital balances in 2023. We accelerated our inventory reduction in the third quarter and expect the trend to continue as we plan to balance our inventory levels by the end of the year.

現在就來看看我們的現金流量表（投影片 8）。年初至今，自由現金流為 6.88 億美元，佔營收的 11%，較去年同期成長近 4 億美元。正如前面所討論的，隨著供應鏈的改善，我們已開始積極努力在2023 年清算我們的營運資金餘額。我們在第三季度加快了庫存削減速度，並預計這一趨勢將持續下去，因為我們計劃在2023 年底前平衡我們的庫存水準。那一年。

Free cash flow generation has historically peaked in the fourth quarter. And again, we expect strong fourth quarter cash flow to finish the year. Our forecast for 2023 free cash flow is 13% to 15% of revenue.

自由現金流產生歷史上在第四季達到高峰。我們再次預計第四季度現金流將在今年結束時強勁。我們預測 2023 年自由現金流佔營收的 13% 至 15%。

Let me turn it back to Rich.

讓我把它轉回給里奇。

All right. I'm on Slide 9. We expect Engineered Products to generate moderate growth in the fourth quarter. Aerospace and defense should remain strong. Meanwhile, the auto strike will weigh on several businesses in the near term. Growth in our waste handling business, which is expected to be robust in the fourth quarter into '24, will be reduced in near term by recent strike at a major truck OEM impacting deliveries.

好的。我在投影片 9 上。我們預計工程產品將在第四季實現適度成長。航空航天和國防應保持強勁。同時，汽車罷工將在短期內給一些企業帶來壓力。我們的廢棄物處理業務預計將在 2024 年第四季保持強勁成長，但由於近期一家主要卡車原始設備製造商的罷工影響了交付，該業務的成長將在短期內減少。

Shipments in vehicle aftermarket expected to be lower versus a record previous year on higher interest rates weigh on service shops ability to finance CapEx. We expect margins to improve in the quarter on positive price/cost tailwinds and benefits from our recent productivity capital investments.

由於利率上升影響了服務店資本支出融資能力，預計汽車售後市場的出貨量將低於去年的創紀錄水準。我們預計，由於價格/成本的積極推動以及我們最近的生產力資本投資的好處，本季的利潤率將有所改善。

Clean Energy & Fueling is expected to remain steady. Clean energy, LNG and hydrogen components should continue their robust trajectory and order trends in aboveground retail fueling point to continued post EMV recovery. We expect channel destocking and interest rate-driven headwinds in the below-ground fueling segment, LP components and vehicle wash to maintain through year-end. We expect stable margin performance as the $60 million in aggregate structural cost containment actions in retail fueling should offset negative mix from lower below-ground and lower car wash volumes.

清潔能源和燃料預計將保持穩定。清潔能源、液化天然氣和氫氣成分將繼續保持強勁的發展軌跡，地上零售加油的訂單趨勢將在 EMV 復甦後繼續保持。我們預期地下加油領域、液化石油氣零件和車輛清洗領域的通路去庫存和利率驅動的不利因素將持續到年底。我們預期利潤率表現將穩定，因為零售加油方面 6,000 萬美元的結構性成本控制措施將抵消地下和洗車量下降的負面影響。

Imaging and ID is expected to be down organically against a difficult comparable period driven by slowing demand in Asia and a subdued outlook for textiles. Serialization software should continue its growth trajectory on new customer conversion. Margin performance should remain at attractive levels at this segment.

由於亞洲需求放緩和紡織品前景黯淡，成像和 ID 預計將在困難的可比時期出現有機下降。序列化軟體應該會在新客戶轉換方面繼續其成長軌跡。該細分市場的利潤率表現應保持在有吸引力的水平。

Pumps & Process is expected to remain roughly flat organically in the fourth quarter. Precision Components should continue growth tailwinds from energy transition projects. Polymer processing is booked for the year. The recovery in biopharma components have been very subdued. And although channel inventory levels are now below prepandemic levels, end customer demand has not recovered enough to drive 2023 growth despite earlier forecast indicating recovery.

預計第四季度泵浦與製程業務將基本保持穩定。精密零件應繼續受益於能源轉型專案的成長。本年度已預訂聚合物加工。生物製藥成分的復甦非常緩慢。儘管通路庫存水準目前低於疫情前的水平，但終端客戶需求尚未恢復到足以推動 2023 年成長的程度，儘管先前的預測顯示復甦。

We have reduced our production and inventory levels appropriately and will remain in this posture for the balance of the year. This is generally a short-cycle business, and we can ramp as order rates recover in '24. We expect year-over-year margin headwinds on negative mix in biopharma.

我們已經適當地降低了生產和庫存水平，並將在今年餘下的時間裡保持這種態勢。這通常是一個短週期業務，我們可以隨著 24 年訂單率的恢復而增加。我們預計生物製藥領域的負面組合將導致同比利潤率面臨阻力。

After several years of impressive top line growth, Climate & Sustainability Technologies expect to moderate in the fourth quarter as demand for heat exchanges abruptly slowed in Q3 due to near-term uncertainty in European heat pumps. As a result, we're reducing production levels to allow for inventory to be cleared in the fourth quarter. Traditional refrigeration demand will retain its seasonality with reduced activity during the holiday season. But we continue to see robust demand for our CO2 refrigeration systems and are ramping up production and go-to-market efforts appropriately. We expect continued year-over-year margin improvement through year-end on productivity gains and improved mix.

經過幾年令人印象深刻的營收成長後，氣候與永續發展技術公司預計第四季的營收成長將放緩，因為歐洲熱泵的近期不確定性導致第三季熱交換需求突然放緩。因此，我們正在降低生產水平，以便在第四季度清理庫存。傳統冷凍需求將保持季節性，節日期間活動減少。但我們仍然看到對二氧化碳製冷系統的強勁需求，並正在適當地增加生產和進入市場的努力。我們預計，由於生產率的提高和產品組合的改善，到年底利潤率將繼續同比改善。

Going to Slide 10. Our updated EPS guide reflects the near-term changes in demand and our production posture, temporary and isolated issues in the supply chain and costs related to acquisitions, integration and divestment activities. We expect these headwinds to be partially offset by a lower effective tax rate in Q4 as a result of tax reorganization activities, driven by upcoming regulatory changes. As I've highlighted, we believe our changed operating and production posture focused on reducing inventories and prioritizing cash flow over volume in reaction to the dynamic operating environment is critical to setting up 2024 outlook where we can maintain and expand operating margins.

前往投影片 10。我們更新的 EPS 指南反映了需求和生產狀況的近期變化、供應鏈中的臨時和孤立問題以及與收購、整合和撤資活動相關的成本。我們預計這些不利因素將被第四季度較低的有效稅率所部分抵消，這是由於即將到來的監管變化推動的稅務重組活動所致。正如我所強調的，我們認為，我們改變的營運和生產態勢側重於減少庫存，並優先考慮現金流而非銷量，以應對動態的營運環境，這對於制定2024 年的前景至關重要，使我們能夠維持和擴大營運利潤率。

Let's go to Slide 11 and take a quick look at the inorganic moves that we made during the quarter. Here, we summarized the 2 recently announced transaction that align well with our portfolio priorities and enhance the overall quality of Dover's portfolio through margin growth and reoccurring revenue uplift, all while reducing our exposure to automotive and China. Importantly, we were able to acquire FW Murphy, a lower valuation multiple than our sale of DESTACO and the after-tax proceeds from the DESTACO sale more than pay for FW Murphy, preserving significant balance sheet capacity for additional deployment options.

讓我們轉到投影片 11，快速瀏覽我們在本季所做的無機舉措。在這裡，我們總結了最近宣布的兩項交易，這些交易與我們的投資組合優先事項非常吻合，並通過利潤增長和經常性收入提升來提高都福投資組合的整體質量，同時減少我們在汽車和中國的風險敞口。重要的是，我們能夠以比出售 DESTACO 更低的估值倍數收購 FW Murphy，而且出售 DESTACO 的稅後收益高於支付 FW Murphy 的費用，從而為額外的部署選項保留了大量的資產負債表容量。

Slide 12 provides more color on the rationale for the acquisition of FW Murphy by our Precision Components operating unit, which is part of Pumps & Process Solutions segment. FW Murphy brings a highly complementary product offering to our existing position in reciprocating compression industry. FW Murphy's solutions capitalized on the growing adoption of advanced remote monitoring, control, real-time optimization solutions as customers seek to reduce costs, improve uptime and lower emissions.

投影片 12 提供了更多關於我們的精密零件營運部門（泵浦與製程解決方案部門的一部分）收購 FW Murphy 的理由。 FW Murphy 為我們在往復壓縮產業的現有地位帶來了高度互補的產品。隨著客戶尋求降低成本、延長正常運行時間和降低排放，FW Murphy 的解決方案充分利用了先進遠端監控、控制和即時優化解決方案的廣泛採用。

In combination with our best-in-class Cook clean technology and our leading position in sealing and valve technology for alternative energy applications, including in hydrogen, the FW Murphy acquisition offers a compelling value proposition into a global industry where we see robust demand from energy transition investments.

結合我們一流的庫克清潔技術以及我們在替代能源應用（包括氫氣）的密封和閥門技術方面的領先地位，FW Murphy 的收購為我們看到能源需求強勁的全球行業提供了令人信服的價值主張轉型投資。

The FW Murphy acquisition provides a good segue into our next topic, which is to highlight the recent developments and investment in sustainability-driven markets, starting on Slide 13. There has been plenty of interest around hydrogen as a result of the recent announcement of $7 billion in federal funding for multiple regional hydrogen hubs that are expected to also attract $40 billion in private funding and a roster of blue chip industry participants.

FW Murphy 的收購為我們的下一個主題提供了一個很好的延續，該主題是從幻燈片13 開始強調可持續發展驅動市場的最新發展和投資。由於最近宣布了7 美元的價格，人們對氫產生了極大的興趣數十億美元的聯邦資金用於多個區域氫中心，預計還將吸引 400 億美元的私人資金和藍籌產業參與者。

Dover has established a position in hydrogen with the 2021 acquisition of Acme, which supplies flow control components for liquid hydrogen and LIQAL, which offers turnkey hydrogen refueling sites. Additionally, we are organically invested in extending DPCs, gas compression components, to participate in gaseous hydrogen applications. In short, there is no hydrogen economy without compression. We have great relationships with the industrial gas and hydrogen players and aim to participate throughout the whole value chain through transport and storage through end-use in collaboration with equipment OEMs. We are well positioned to capitalize on growth in hydrogen and industry with a high focus on safety and regulatory compliance with high technological requirements for participation.

多佛於 2021 年收購了為液氫提供流量控制組件的 Acme 和提供交鑰匙加氫站的 LIQAL，從而確立了在氫氣領域的地位。此外，我們有機投資於擴展 DPC、氣體壓縮組件，以參與氣態氫應用。簡而言之，沒有壓縮就沒有氫經濟。我們與工業氣體和氫氣生產商有著良好的關係，並致力於與設備原始設備製造商合作，參與從運輸和儲存到最終使用的整個價值鏈。我們處於有利地位，可以充分利用氫能和工業的成長，高度關注安全性和監管合規性，並滿足參與的高技術要求。

Moving to Slide 14. The EPA recently finalized its rule under the AIM Act with a deadline for new installation of refrigeration systems to be compliant with lower GWP requirements by January of 2027. We believe this rule is a clear tailwind to our CO2 systems business. And we have had a leading position in the European CO2 market for over a decade where we enjoyed steady double-digit growth trajectory.

轉到投影片14。EPA 最近根據AIM 法案最終確定了其規則，規定新安裝的冷凍系統的最後期限是在2027 年1 月之前滿足較低的GWP 要求。我們相信該規則對我們的CO2 系統業務來說是一個明顯的推動力。十多年來，我們在歐洲二氧化碳市場上一直處於領先地位，並享有穩定的兩位數成長軌跡。

We were the early mover in transplanting this technology to the U.S. where we currently enjoy a technological lead and have the largest installed based and broadest differentiated offering. We have proactively expanded our capacity in addition and in anticipation of market growth and have been investing behind a platform-based product strategy to drive standardization, thereby reducing costs for ourselves and our customers, improving product quality and simplifying the sales process.

我們是將該技術移植到美國的先驅。目前，我們在美國享有技術領先地位，並擁有最大的安裝量和最廣泛的差異化產品。此外，為了預測市場成長，我們也積極擴大產能，並一直投資於基於平台的產品策略以推動標準化，從而降低我們自己和客戶的成本，提高產品品質並簡化銷售流程。

Our global CO2 business is approximately $200 million in revenue. U.S. market is in the early innings, and we're in our business is on track for 30% growth in 2023 with a strong outlook. We are also excited about our new CO2-based heat pump offerings for industrial and district heating applications. It's early days, but we have an active pipeline of orders.

我們的全球二氧化碳業務收入約為 2 億美元。美國市場正處於起步階段，我們的業務預計在 2023 年實現 30% 的成長，前景光明。我們也對用於工業和區域供熱應用的新型二氧化碳熱泵產品感到興奮。現在還處於早期階段，但我們有大量訂單。

And finally, on Slide 15 shows our latest views on heat exchangers since it has become a battleground topic. Our heat exchanger business supplies brazed plate technology, which is currently the most sustainable commercialized heat transfer technology for fluids. We have been the clear beneficiary of the sustainability and climate tailwinds across various applications with a lot of attention drawn recently from our participation as a key supplier to hydronic heat pumps. Heat pumps have emerged in recent years as a technology of choice to decarbonize residential heating, which is responsible for a significant portion of global emissions with hydriatic heat pumps as a primary technology to retrofit houses that rely on water-based heating.

最後，幻燈片 15 顯示了我們對熱交換器的最新看法，因為它已成為一個戰場話題。我們的熱交換器業務提供釬焊板技術，這是目前最永續的商業化流體傳熱技術。我們是各種應用的可持續性和氣候順風的明顯受益者，最近我們作為液體循環熱泵的主要供應商的參與引起了很多關注。近年來，熱泵已成為住宅供暖脫碳的首選技術，住宅供暖佔全球排放量的很大一部分，而水力熱泵是改造依賴水供暖的房屋的主要技術。

Legislative initiatives in European Union and individual countries are driving the conversion of fossil fuel boilers into heat pumps. Recent uncertainties about subsidies in select European countries have weighed on near-term volumes, as I indicated earlier. Our exposure across multiple OEMs and geographies, and as such, they're not over-indexed to any product or customer concentration risk. We remain confident about the long-term growth prospects for heat pumps and our technology.

歐盟和各國的立法措施正在推動化石燃料鍋爐向熱泵的轉變。正如我之前指出的，近期部分歐洲國家補貼的不確定性影響了近期銷售。我們的業務涉及多個原始設備製造商和地區，因此，它們不會過度考慮任何產品或客戶集中風險。我們對熱泵和我們的技術的長期成長前景仍然充滿信心。

It's important to note that European residential heat pumps represent only 1/4 of our heat exchanger business. You see several solid growth vectors driven by sustainability tailwinds and continue to share gains from other legacy heat exchanger technologies. We have proactively expanded our capacity as we expect continued robust growth trajectory in heat exchanges, albeit with slightly lower rates in the near term as various dynamics in Europe slow down.

值得注意的是，歐洲住宅熱泵僅占我們熱交換器業務的 1/4。您將看到由永續發展推動的幾個穩健的成長向量，並繼續分享其他傳統熱交換器技術的效益。我們積極擴大了產能，因為我們預計熱交換將持續強勁成長，儘管由於歐洲各種動態放緩，短期內速率略有下降。

I close my prepared remarks by thanking our global teams for driving our strong financial performance during the quarter. And it's time for Q&A.

在我準備好的發言結束時，我要感謝我們的全球團隊在本季推動了我們強勁的財務表現。現在是問答時間。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steve Tusa。

So I think you were a little more positive in early September than this fourth quarter guidance, understand maybe the world's changed a little bit since then. Maybe you could just discuss that. But then just looking ahead, thinking about perhaps a more cautious view of the world for next year, what's kind of a low-end assumption for next year when it comes to organic margins, just to kind of level set us on a case where perhaps the orders don't recouple as strongly to the trend lines or the trend lines are a little bit weaker? Like in your macro view, what is a more cautious outlook for next year bring for Dover? Because you've been talking about growth there as things recouple the trend. It seems like that would have changed over the last month or so.

因此，我認為您在 9 月初的態度比第四季度的指導更為積極，我知道從那時起世界可能發生了一些變化。也許你們可以討論一下。但展望未來，考慮對明年的世界可能採取更加謹慎的看法，就有機利潤率而言，明年的低端假設是什麼，只是為了讓我們了解這樣一種情況：訂單與趨勢線的重新耦合不那麼強烈，或者趨勢線有點弱？就像您的宏觀觀點一樣，明年更加謹慎的前景會為多佛帶來什麼？因為你一直在談論隨著事物重新結合趨勢而出現的成長。過去一個月左右，情況似乎發生了變化。

Okay. That's a lot to take on this. Steve, let's give it a try. Look, I think if I -- if we look at our forecast for the year, we were just wrong about biopharma. I mean, we were getting indications from our customers that there was going to be some nascent recovery. We actually did see some order upticks, but quite frankly, it just never turned into much. So that's a little bit different than we were back in September. I think we just have to throw in the towel on biopharma demand and it gets pushed to 2024.

好的。為此需要承擔很多工作。史蒂夫，我們來試試吧。聽著，我認為如果我們看看今年的預測，我們對生物製藥的看法是錯誤的。我的意思是，我們從客戶那裡得到的跡象表明，將會出現一些初步的復甦。事實上，我們確實看到了一些訂單的增加，但坦白說，它從來沒有增加太多。所以與九月時有點不同。我認為我們只能對生物製藥的需求認輸，並將其推遲到 2024 年。

We didn't expect in terms of market dynamics was this UAW on trucks, right? We thought it would stay limited into the car sector. And unfortunately, what we were betting on is being able to ship quite heavily out of ESG in Q4. We'll actually have a good quarter in Q4, but it's not going to be as robust in our plans.

我們沒想到從市場動態來看，UAW 竟然出現在卡車上，對嗎？我們認為它將繼續限制在汽車領域。不幸的是，我們所押注的是能夠在第四季度從 ESG 中大量出貨。實際上，我們第四季度的季度業績會很好，但我們的計劃不會那麼強勁。

I think I mentioned on the heat exchangers, that was a little bit of a abrupt reversal and really didn't happen until almost the end of Q3. So up until about 30 days ago, everything looked good there. And I think that we've got a little bit of a pivot as what we understand is there's a lot of finished goods in the supply chain that need to be reduced from there.

我想我在熱交換器上提到過，這是一個突然的逆轉，直到第三季末才真正發生。所以直到大約 30 天前，那裡一切看起來都很好。我認為我們已經有了一點轉折點，因為據我們了解，供應鏈中有很多成品需要從那裡減少。

So at the end of the day, I think it slowed some and -- which leads into the next question. And the next question, our positioning now is to drive for cash, because I think that the way we're going to be able to protect margins into 2024 is not to be long inventory. We had a lot of discussions around here about incentivizing revenue in '24 driving revenue, but then you start touching on things like price and you start touching on things like payment terms, and we're not going there.

因此，歸根結底，我認為它放慢了一些速度——這引出了下一個問題。下一個問題是，我們現在的定位是爭取現金，因為我認為我們能夠在 2024 年之前保護利潤的方法不是長期庫存。我們在這裡進行了很多關於 24 年激勵收入以推動收入的討論，但隨後你開始觸及價格之類的事情，你開始觸及付款條件之類的事情，但我們不會去那裡。

I mean I think that the strategy that we have is to adapt quickly and efficiently to the market demand, bring down our inventory with the hope of -- with the strategy of protecting margin into next year. And I think if you look at how we've handled demand this year, it's exactly what we've done at the end of the day. I mean, we talked about it before. What we had seen over the previous 2 years was not a lot of unitary demand. You saw a lot of pricing going into the system. So we came into this year saying, there's probably going to be less price and some unitary demand, but the important -- and I think that we've done that in terms of managing -- which is reflected in our margins year-to-date, is managing not getting oversupply and over our SKUs a little bit in terms of inventory and that we're going to take that on for next year.

我的意思是，我認為我們的策略是快速有效地適應市場需求，降低我們的庫存，希望能保護明年的利潤率。我認為，如果你看看我們今年如何處理需求，你會發現這正是我們最終所做的。我的意思是，我們之前討論過。過去兩年我們看到的並不是很多單一的需求。您看到系統中有很多定價。因此，今年我們說，價格可能會降低，需求也會有所單一，但重要的是——我認為我們在管理方面已經做到了這一點——這反映在我們逐年的利潤中——到目前為止，我們正在設法避免供應過剩，並且在庫存方面不會出現一點點超出我們的SKU 的情況，我們將在明年解決這一問題。

Do you want me to make a call on the market next year? I think we're going to have to wait on that. Clearly, there's a lot of headwinds in the system. I don't want to get on a personal soapbox, but the amount of liquidity that's being withdrawn is going to show up somewhere. And this notion that we're all going to wait on the government to bail us out, because there's this wave of government spending coming, I find that a problematic strategy. So I think it all is going to be triggered by monetary policy between now and the end of the year, which is going to allow for us to predict growth into next year.

你想讓我明年去市場打電話嗎？我認為我們將不得不等待這一點。顯然，該系統存在著許多阻力。我不想上私人演講台，但提取的流動性數量將會在某個地方顯現出來。我們都將等待政府來救助我們，因為這波政府支出即將到來，我認為這是一個有問題的策略。因此，我認為這一切都將由現在到年底的貨幣政策引發，這將使我們能夠預測明年的成長。

What I can tell you is if we do what we're planning on doing in Q4, we will not be long inventory, and we're not going to get into a situation where if there are kind of top line headwinds that we're going to have to start playing price to drive growth.

我可以告訴你的是，如果我們按照第四季度的計劃去做，我們就不會長期庫存，而且我們也不會陷入這樣的境地：如果出現某種頂線逆風，我們就會陷入困境。必須開始玩價格來推動成長。

So like should we just think about flat as a starting point for next year?

那麼我們是否應該考慮將持平作為明年的起點？

No, I don't think so. I think that we're ahead of the curve. Remember, we're a component supplier into end market industries, right? So we're first at the end of the day. So I think that if we get this right, we've got top line growth next year, even in a pretty benign kind of macro environment, I think that we can drive growth. And I think that's part of the reason that we covered some of those growth vectors in terms of our investment at the end of the presentation.

不，我不這麼認為。我認為我們處於領先地位。請記住，我們是終端市場行業的零件供應商，對吧？所以我們最終是第一個。因此，我認為，如果我們做得對，明年我們就能實現營收成長，即使在相當良性的宏觀環境下，我認為我們也可以推動成長。我認為這就是我們在演示結束時在投資方面介紹了其中一些成長向量的部分原因。

The next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Jeff Sprague。

Rich, maybe a question on restructuring and thinking fueling in particular. I think you had a lot of restructuring planned there for Q4, but it looks like you're guiding margins kind of flat, I guess, on a year-over-year basis. Could you speak to that? Maybe it's some of the absorption issues you're talking about on inventory, but love some more color on the margin trajectory there.

里奇，也許是關於重組和思考的問題，特別是燃料。我認為你們在第四季度計劃了很多重組，但我猜你們的指導利潤率似乎與去年同期持平。你能談談嗎？也許這是您在庫存上談論的一些吸收問題，但喜歡那裡的利潤軌跡上有更多的色彩。

Sure. I think if you go back and look at the script, basically, what it says is the restructuring that we took is going to protect margins into Q4, because we actually have a poor mix forecasted for Q4 because where we've been seeing the headwinds in Fueling Solutions is in the below-ground portion of the segment, and that is highly accretive to margins. We're basically -- you heard me answer Steve's question there, we're taking the position of let's allow inventory to be draw down even we would argue at this point, below even normal levels between now and the end of the year and protect production performance into next year. So the restructuring benefit -- the restructuring that we've done is actually protecting margins into Q4.

當然。我認為，如果你回頭看劇本，基本上，它所說的是我們採取的重組將保護第四季度的利潤，因為我們實際上對第四季度的預測組合很差，因為我們已經看到了逆風燃料解決方案公司位於該細分市場的地下部分，這對利潤率有很大的促進作用。我們基本上 - 你聽到我回答了史蒂夫的問題，我們的立場是，讓我們允許庫存減少，即使我們現在會爭論，甚至低於從現在到年底的正常水平，並保護明年的生產業績。因此，重組的好處——我們所做的重組實際上是在保護第四季度的利潤率。

And on these questions of just kind of what's at the customer level, right, whether it was biopharma earlier this year, heat pumps, maybe now, some other pockets, how would you kind of square up your visibility and kind of comfortable on understanding what the right level of inventory is or when the customer demand equation might turn a little bit?

關於這些客戶層面的問題，對吧，無論是今年早些時候的生物製藥、熱泵，也許現在，還是其他一些領域，您將如何提高您的知名度並輕鬆地了解什麼正確的庫存水平是或者當客戶需求方程式可能會發生一點變化時？

Yes. I think we're getting a lot better at it. At the end of the day, where we sell through distribution, we have visibility, right, because we've just got a material position within distribution, so we can see pretty much stocking levels. At the OEM level, it becomes a lot more difficult. At the end of the day, we're relying on the OEMs to basically tell us their own position.

是的。我認為我們在這方面做得更好了。歸根結底，當我們透過分銷進行銷售時，我們有可見性，對吧，因為我們剛剛在分銷中佔據了重要地位，所以我們可以看到相當多的庫存水平。在 OEM 層面，這變得更加困難。歸根結底，我們基本上依靠原始設備製造商來告訴我們他們自己的立場。

So let's take heat exchangers. Up until 45 days ago, it was still a demand capacity deficit of give us everything you've got and then all of a sudden, for reasons that I tried to cover, the markets come to a halt, because there's a recognition of the seemingly is a lot of finished goods in the chain now that need to be bled off. So like I said, from -- if it's distribution, I think that we've got a pretty good handle on it. When it's OEM, we just got to take the signals from them.

讓我們以熱交換器為例。直到 45 天前，需求能力仍然不足，無法為我們提供一切，然後突然間，由於我試圖闡述的原因，市場陷入停滯，因為人們認識到了看似現在鏈條中有很多成品需要排出。就像我說的，如果是分發，我認為我們已經很好地處理了它。當它是 OEM 時，我們只需從他們那裡獲取訊號即可。

I'm sorry, just a quick one for Brad. Does the tax rate bounce back to 20-something next year? Or what should we expect going forward?

抱歉，請快速告訴布拉德。明年稅率會反彈到20多嗎？或者我們應該期待什麼？

Yes, Jeff, the things we're seeing here in Q3 and into Q4 on taxes, will not carry into next year. So said differently, I think our '24 tax rate is going to be much like we saw earlier in this year when we gave guidance, somewhere in that 20% to 22% rate.

是的，傑夫，我們在第三季和第四季看到的稅收問題不會延續到明年。換句話說，我認為我們的 24 年稅率將與今年早些時候我們給予指導時看到的非常相似，即 20% 至 22% 的稅率。

The next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

This is David Ridley-Lane on for Andrew Obin. Rich, how would you characterize kind of the excess backlog at this point in time, and how that kind of interplays into the revenue you'll see versus kind of the bookings trends that you need?

我是安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin) 的大衛‧雷德利‧萊恩 (David Ridley-Lane)。 Rich，您如何描述此時的過剩積壓情況，以及這種情況與您將看到的收入與您所需的預訂趨勢之間的相互作用如何？

I don't think that we have excess backlog anymore. I mean, I think that we're -- by the end of the year, we will have drawn down our longer cycle backlog, particularly in Belvac and Maag, which drove a lot of it. I think it will end up being a little bit higher than kind of on average in terms of its aggregate, if you go back and look over the last 5 years, but that is more related to portfolio -- general portfolio mix as opposed to anything else.

我認為我們不再有過多的積壓。我的意思是，我認為到今年年底，我們將減少較長週期的積壓訂單，特別是在貝爾瓦克和馬格，這推動了許多積壓工作。我認為，如果你回顧過去 5 年，就其總體而言，最終會比平均水平高一點，但這與投資組合更相關——總體投資組合而不是任何東西別的。

So like I said, at the end of the year, we think that we'll be in balance between our inventory and our -- either the customer distribution inventory, I would expect the long-cycle business backlogs to be done, that reduction to be done by the end of the year.

因此，就像我說的，到年底，我們認為我們的庫存和客戶分銷庫存之間將保持平衡，我希望長週期業務積壓能夠完成，從而減少到年底前完成。

Got it. And then I know it's tough to ask about bookings, but do you see bookings sequentially increasing in the fourth quarter then?

知道了。然後我知道很難詢問預訂量，但是您認為第四季度的預訂量會連續增加嗎？

I got to go back and take a look. I mean, I would say flat. If I think about where bookings are coming from, we got a lot in ESG at high dollar value, because quite frankly, we're booking well into '24 in that particular business just because of supply constraints. Flat, I would call it right now. I think that there's an overall caution with the macro, everybody recognizes that lead times have been vastly reduced. So I think that there's going to be a lot of hurry for bookings in Q4, but we would expect pretty large acceleration in Q1 if we got...

我得回去看看。我的意思是，我會說平坦。如果我考慮預訂來自哪裡，我們在 ESG 方面獲得了很多高美元價值，因為坦率地說，由於供應限制，我們在該特定業務中在 2​​4 年之前就進行了預訂。平坦，我現在稱之為。我認為總體上對宏觀形勢持謹慎態度，每個人都認識到交貨時間已大大縮短。因此，我認為第四季度的預訂將會非常匆忙，但如果我們…我們預計第一季的預訂會出現相當大的加速。

The next question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Mike Halloran 和 Baird。

Two here. So first, on the inventory side, you're obviously bringing your inventory down a fair amount pretty aggressively, more so than what we're hearing elsewhere. Do you have the same sense of urgency in the channel when you look at your channel partners? Or do you think they're lagging the pace of your inventory drawdown?

這裡有兩個。首先，在庫存方面，您顯然相當積極地大幅降低了庫存，比我們在其他地方聽到的還要多。當您審視自己的通路夥伴時，是否也有同樣的通路迫切感？或者您認為他們落後於您的庫存削減速度嗎？

No. I think that our channel partners are, in certain cases, below normal holding pattern. And that is because of the cost of carry with interest rates. So if you think about a typical distributor that's got $100 million of inventory, a working capital loan that they would have been able to have 18 months ago was probably 2% or 3%, they're probably paying 9% now, right? So there's a dynamic now because of higher interest rates of everybody trying to liquidate working capital because of the cost of that working capital, us included, by the way.

不。我認為我們的通路合作夥伴在某些情況下低於正常的持有模式。這是因為利率的持有成本。因此，如果你考慮一個擁有 1 億美元庫存的典型分銷商，他們在 18 個月前可以獲得的營運資金貸款可能是 2% 或 3%，他們現在可能要支付 9%，對嗎？因此，現在出現了一種動態，因為每個人都試圖清算營運資金，因為營運資金的成本更高，順便說一下，我們也包括在內。

And we're in a little bit of a standoff in certain end markets where we would argue that inventories are down too low, but we are not going to incentivize revenue into the system either through price or through terms. We're just going to sit tight and we'll cut our own production into Q4, because that's just harvesting demand that's in '24 into '23.

我們在某些​​終端市場陷入了僵局，我們認為庫存降得太低，但我們不會透過價格或條款來激勵系統收入。我們將靜觀其變，我們將在第四季度削減自己的產量，因為這只是收穫 24 年到 23 年的需求。

So the comment that you made to the previous question about order or having a better chance to turn positive in the first quarter, I'm guessing part of it is the comments you just made that inventory flush through the channel, essentially normalizes by year-end, and you should have at least normal throughput, if not a little bit more, given where inventory levels are in certain channels.

因此，您對上一個有關訂單或在第一季度有更好的機會轉正的機會發表的評論，我猜其中一部分是您剛剛通過渠道沖刷庫存的評論，基本上按年正常化-最後，考慮到某些渠道的庫存水平，您至少應該有正常的吞吐量，如果不是多一點的話。

That's correct. I mean, if you look at the top line revenue trajectory in some of our businesses, you have to take destocking into it. That's not a reflection of end market demand. It's end market demand minus destocking.

這是正確的。我的意思是，如果你看看我們某些業務的營收軌跡，你必須考慮去庫存。這並不是終端市場需求的反映。這是終端市場需求減去去庫存。

Great. And then on the DPPS side, maybe just kind of parse out the moving pieces there. Obviously, you have the continued destock on the biopharm piece, creating some pretty easy comps in the next year, but a lot of your other pieces are a little bit more IP sensitive. So maybe just talk about some of the moving pieces you're seeing on that side?

偉大的。然後在 DPPS 方面，也許只是解析那裡的移動部分。顯然，您在生物製藥領域繼續減少庫存，並在明年創建一些相當簡單的產品，但您的許多其他產品對智慧財產權更加敏感。那麼也許只是談談你在那邊看到的一些令人感動的事情？

Well, I think that overall, it's underestimated, the amount of profit loss that we've had on the biopharma reduction. To the extent that we're clocking at record margins in the quarter, while eating this pretty bad sandwich here, I think that -- quite frankly, I think we're pretty proud of. So to the extent that it's pushed into '24, at the end of the day, the comps get pretty damn easy once we get into Q1 of next year.

嗯，我認為總體而言，我們因生物製藥業務減少而遭受的利潤損失被低估了。在某種程度上，我們在本季度創下了創紀錄的利潤率，同時在這裡吃著這個非常糟糕的三明治，我認為——坦白說，我認為我們感到非常自豪。因此，就其推遲到 24 年而言，最終，一旦我們進入明年第一季度，比賽就會變得非常容易。

The balance of the underlying business, Precision Components, where we basically bought FW Murphy into, look, we're behind energy transition. We're betting on gas in total LNG hydrogen, you name it. Order rates there, we expect to be really good. I think Maag on plastics and polymers, we've driven down a lot of that backlog. That's probably the one business that's probably going to be weaker next year, but I think it gets completely offset by DPC and by FW Murphy and some amount of bio.

基礎業務精密零件的平衡，我們基本上收購了 FW Murphy，看，我們支持能源轉型。我們押注在液化天然氣氫氣中的天然氣，凡是你能想到的。我們預計那裡的訂單率會非常好。我認為 Maag 在塑膠和聚合物方面，我們已經減少了很多積壓訂單。這可能是明年可能會疲軟的一項業務，但我認為它會被 DPC 和 FW Murphy 以及一定數量的生物完全抵消。

The next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的安德魯·卡普洛維茨。

Rich, you've talked about being proactive regarding cost out. But if economics can stay somewhat difficult, what kind of opportunities do you have to deliver the kind of margins you just delivered in Q3? And then I think you were fearful at the beginning of the year that pricing in industrials might erode a bit. Have you seen any erosion or do you expect any erosion in your markets? Or would you still expect resilient price cost moving forward?

Rich，您談到了在成本支出方面要採取主動。但如果經濟狀況仍然有些困難，那麼您有哪些機會可以實現第三季剛實現的利潤率？然後我認為您在今年年初擔心工業品定價可能會略有下降。您是否看到任何侵蝕或您預期您的市場會出現侵蝕？或者您仍然預計價格成本會繼續上漲嗎？

We're always working on efficiency and structural cost takeout at the end of day. So that's just part and parcel to the business model here. Look, in a dire demand environment, if I point back to how we performed during the COVID period, we've got the ability to flex the cost structure, we don't want to, other than kind of productivity and efficiency driven not from a demand point of view.

我們始終致力於最終的效率和結構性成本削減。所以這只是這裡商業模式的重要組成部分。看，在嚴峻的需求環境中，如果我回顧一下我們在新冠疫情期間的表現，我們有能力調整成本結構，但我們不想這樣做，除了生產力和效率不是由需求的角度。

As it relates to pricing, look, I think there was a comment in the script, if you go back and look, is that we fundamentally believe that inventory position is going to be incredibly important as it relates to pricing as it goes into '24. And that's why we're taking a little bit of hard medicine here between now and the end of the year of not to incentivize demand through pricing action, right? We've done a lot of hard work of moving the margins up here, and we're keeping these margins.

因為它與定價有關，看，我認為腳本中有一條評論，如果你回頭看看，我們從根本上相信，庫存狀況將非常重要，因為它與進入 24 世紀的定價有關。 。這就是為什麼我們從現在到年底之間要採取一些硬藥，不要透過定價行動來刺激需求，對嗎？我們已經做了很多艱苦的工作來提高這裡的利潤率，並且我們將保持這些利潤率。

Helpful, Rich. And then maybe just a little more color into the puts and takes you're seeing in DCST. You mentioned the slowdown in the heat exchangers, but the strength in CO2 systems, you mentioned as well, and you did deliver strong margin. Do you still see DCST as a growth segment for you in '24? And how would you assess margin potential from here given what you just reported in Q3?

有幫助，富有。然後，也許您在 DCST 中看到的看跌期權和取跌期權中可能會有更多的色彩。您提到了熱交換器的放緩，但您也提到了二氧化碳系統的實力，並且您確實提供了強勁的利潤。您仍然認為 DCST 是您 24 年的成長領域嗎？鑑於您剛剛在第三季報告的情況，您將如何評估此時的利潤潛力？

Look, I think that -- I think the heat exchanger is temporal, right? I mean, we went through this incredible amount of demand. I don't know if we were clocking up until a month ago, but it was very high demand that we had there. I think this is just a little bit of an inventory clearing things. So we expect growth out of the exchanger business next year. I think that we did our highest margin quarter in refrigeration in the last 5 years here. We don't think that, that's -- we're going to give back there. Now just recall, though, that Q4, we have to take production down due to seasonality there, all right? So that has some amount of impact on margins.

聽著，我認為——我認為熱交換器是暫時的，對吧？我的意思是，我們經歷瞭如此巨大的需求。我不知道一個月前我們是否還在打卡，但我們那裡的需求非常高。我認為這只是一點點清理庫存的事情。因此，我們預計明年交換器業務將會成長。我認為我們在冷凍領域實現了過去 5 年來利潤率最高的季度。我們不認為，我們會回饋那裡。現在回想一下，第四季度，由於季節性因素，我們必須減少產量，好嗎？所以這對利潤率有一定的影響。

But the trajectory on refrigeration, coupled with CO2, which is margin accretive, we would expect margins to increase there next year. Clearly, we're going to -- that will likely offset the negative input from Belvac, which we expect will run off its backlog next year and have a little bit of a down year in 2024.

但冷氣的發展軌跡，再加上二氧化碳排放，可以增加利潤，我們預計明年的利潤將會增加。顯然，我們將——這可能會抵消 Belvac 的負面投入，我們預計該公司明年將耗盡積壓訂單，並在 2024 年略有下降。

The next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

Just a few quick follow-ups on just the inventory dynamics because, I mean, Rich, you've been doing this for a while. It typically -- based on what we've seen, it typically takes longer than a quarter to normalize inventory. And so just any color on your confidence on being able to get inventory where you need it to be by the end of the year? Or is there a good likelihood that some of this kind of spills into 2024?

只是對庫存動態進行一些快速跟進，因為，我的意思是，Rich，你已經這樣做了一段時間了。根據我們所看到的情況，通常需要一個季度以上的時間才能使庫存正常化。那麼，您是否有信心在年底前獲得所需的庫存？或者這種情況是否很可能會持續到 2024 年？

Well, I mean, when we're talking about total inventory, we're talking about our own inventory, which we're in control of, which is reflected in the cash flow that we're signing up for, right? That takes working capital liquidation, a big chunk of that is inventory. I think if you look at the $600 million of free cash flow during the quarter, a material chunk of that was our own inventory reduction.

嗯，我的意思是，當我們談論總庫存時，我們談論的是我們自己的庫存，我們可以控制這些庫存，這反映在我們簽約的現金流中，對嗎？這需要營運資金清算，其中很大一部分是庫存。我認為，如果你看看本季 6 億美元的自由現金流，你會發現其中很大一部分是我們自己的庫存減少。

When we're talking about channel inventory, like I said before, we're -- we've been -- the channel inventory in a lot of our end markets has been coming down progressively over the year. And now we're adopting a posture between now and the end of the year in certain businesses to allow that inventory to clear rather than try to push revenue into either channel inventory or OEM inventory and because the only way you can do that is to start modifying commercial conditions, and we're not doing that.

當我們談論通路庫存時，就像我之前說過的那樣，我們許多終端市場的通路庫存在這一年中一直在逐步下降。現在，我們在某些​​業務中採取從現在到年底的態度，讓庫存得到清理，而不是試圖將收入推入渠道庫存或 OEM 庫存，因為做到這一點的唯一方法就是開始修改商業條件，但我們不會這樣做。

So should it clear, we believe that we're on the front foot here, and so I think we'll be in balance in kind of most of our end markets by the end of the year. And then it just becomes a question of what does growth look like next year and how much confidence there is in the end markets of how much that channel and how quickly they build it back. But we feel good about the trajectory we're on. So that -- it's an end-of-the-year phenomenon based on current demand rates.

因此，如果清楚的話，我們相信我們在這方面處於領先地位，所以我認為到今年年底我們將在大多數終端市場上保持平衡。然後問題就變成了明年的成長情況如何，以及終端市場對該通路的信心有多大以及他們重建通路的速度有多快。但我們對目前的發展軌跡感覺良好。因此，根據當前的需求率，這是一種年底現象。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess just a real quick one on just 4Q in DPPS. So I think you called out flat growth in the segment. So sequentially, revenue is down a little bit. I'm curious just from a margin standpoint, similar revenues -- similar margins for 3Q? How do you think about the margins in 4Q for DPPS?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後我猜想在 DPPS 的 4Q 上只是一個真正的快速的。所以我認為您指出了該領域的平穩增長。因此，收入連續下降了一點。我很好奇，從利潤率的角度來看，第三季的營收是否相似──利潤率相似？您如何看待 DPPS 第四季的利潤率？

They're either -- it will be immaterial up or down, right, subject to mix.

它們要么是——向上或向下都無關緊要，對吧，取決於混合。

The next question comes from Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Brett Linzey。

I just wanted to ask a question on the portfolio. I guess as you consider additional pruning, is there a way to maybe quantify what percent of revenue could be under review? And certainly understand M&A is episodic, but are you seeking to find comparable sized acquisitions to offset? Or how should we think about this portfolio shuffle?

我只是想問一個關於投資組合的問題。我想當你考慮額外的修剪時，有沒有一種方法可以量化可以接受審查的收入百分比？當然，併購是偶發性的，但您是否正在尋求尋找規模相當的收購來抵消？或者說我們該如何看待這次作品集洗牌？

The portfolio -- the whole portfolio is under review all the time. Look, no. Look, we don't go around and say, we've got a business that's got $200 million revenue, let's go buy $100 million to $200 million revenue. No one can orchestrate that. But I think that we've gone over, Brett, a lot about where our priorities are to the extent that we could make a change to our portfolio that we did without touching our balance sheet, I think, is a positive. So to the extent that we could do that repeatedly, that would be great, but that is subject to a lot of timing differences both in and out at the end of the day.

投資組合－整個投資組合一直在接受審查。看，沒有。你看，我們不會到處說，我們有一家收入為 2 億美元的企業，讓我們去買 1 億到 2 億美元的收入。沒有人能夠策劃這一點。但我認為，布雷特，我們已經討論了很多我們的優先事項，以至於我們可以在不觸及資產負債表的情況下對我們的投資組合進行改變，我認為這是積極的。因此，如果我們能夠重複這樣做，那就太好了，但這在一天結束時會受到大量時間差異的影響。

But just as an overall comment, what we did this quarter in M&A is what we would like to do progressively every year.

但總體而言，我們本季在併購方面所做的事情是我們每年都希望逐步做到的。

Got it. Makes sense. Just shifting back to heat exchangers and the destock in Europe and Asia. I guess, does this slow the rollout of some of those capacity additions or change the way you're at least thinking about the near term from a capacity standpoint? And then what is your level of visibility there in terms of these imbalances that have maybe skewed more negatively here?

知道了。說得通。只是回到歐洲和亞洲的熱交換器和去庫存。我想，這是否會減緩某些容量增加的推出，或至少改變您從容量角度考慮近期的方式？那麼，對於這些可能在此處產生更負面影響的不平衡現象，您的可見度是多少？

No, I think the capacity is coming on sequentially. These are highly automated plants. So it's not like we've got to ramp employees. It's -- they're almost blackout plants at the end of the day. So we needed the standing capacity. Remember, heat exchangers is 40% of the revenue. So I get -- it's getting a lot of headlines, and that's why we wanted to address it. Our visibility is, as I mentioned, is not great because it's an OEM sale mostly for us. So up and to the point where they decide they want to slow down, that's what we find out. And the slowdown that we've been called out for the balance of the year manifested itself over the last 45 days or so.

不，我認為容量是按順序增加的。這些是高度自動化的工廠。所以我們不需要增加員工數量。它們在一天結束時幾乎是停電的植物。所以我們需要站立能力。請記住，熱交換器佔收入的 40%。所以我明白——它已經成為了很多頭條新聞，這就是我們想要解決這個問題的原因。正如我所提到的，我們的知名度並不高，因為它主要是為我們進行 OEM 銷售。因此，直到他們決定放慢速度，這就是我們發現的。我們在今年剩下的時間裡所呼籲的經濟放緩在過去 45 天左右的時間裡得到了體現。

So are we worried about the capacity investment? Absolutely not. We think that the technology is fundamental. It's going to grow over time. There's been a massive amount of capacity in heat pumps that's been announced. It always seems a little bit implausible. So I think at the end of the day, the market reset is going to be on the finished goods, not so much on the consumption of the heat exchangers.

那我們是否擔心產能投資呢？絕對不。我們認為技術是基礎。它會隨著時間的推移而增長。已經宣布了大量的熱泵容量。總顯得有點難以置信。因此，我認為歸根結底，市場重置將針對成品，而不是熱交換器的消耗。

The next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

One element I just wanted to circle back to in context of the inventory discussion is around the free cash flow margin guide. So I think that it's very high still for this year, but maybe move down a little bit and that's despite the good progress on the inventory liquidation that you cited in Q3. So maybe just any sort of color around the moving parts inside free cash flow, and it has been very volatile. So any sort of thoughts on maybe next 12 months as it's more sort of normalized?

在庫存討論中，我只想回顧一下自由現金流利潤率指南。因此，我認為今年的價格仍然很高，但可能會略有下降，儘管您在第三季提到的庫存清算取得了良好進展。因此，也許自由現金流中的活動部件周圍有任何顏色，而且它的波動性非常大。那麼，對於未來 12 個月的情況，隨著情況更加正常化，您有什麼想法嗎？

Well, it's been volatile only because of the amount of demand that was there. And to meet that demand, you had to basically an expansion of everybody's balance sheet from an inventory point of view. I think that when we put out the guidance for this year, we basically said now that we're in a more normalized market that we were going to bring inventories down. I think we're making really good progress on raw materials. I think by cutting production in Q4, we should clear WIP and finished goods, then it's all about receivables from here to the end of the year.

嗯，它之所以波動只是因為需求量很大。為了滿足這項需求，從庫存的角度來看，你基本上必須擴大每個人的資產負債表。我認為，當我們發布今年的指導意見時，我們基本上是說，現在我們處於一個更正常化的市場，我們將降低庫存。我認為我們在原材料方面取得了很大的進展。我認為透過第四季的減產，我們應該清理在製品和成品，然後從現在到年底都是應收帳款。

I see. And so receivables was kind of the main delta on the change in the free cash margin guide?

我懂了。那麼應收帳款是自由現金保證金指南變動的主要增量嗎？

Well, it's part of it. But as we went -- if you go back and look at what our commentary has been over the course of the year, we've indicated it's tough to bring inventories down, but we did that in Q3. We see that continuing into Q4. As we look back, and the actual good performance in Q3, receivables, given the timing of sales, actually built in the quarter a bit. So that liquidation is due to come here in the fourth quarter.

嗯，這是其中的一部分。但當我們回顧過去，看看我們在這一年中的評論時，我們已經指出降低庫存很困難，但我們在第三季度做到了這一點。我們看到這種情況持續到第四季。當我們回顧第三季度的實際良好表現時，考慮到銷售的時機，應收帳款實際上是在本季度有所增加的。因此，清算將於第四季進行。

And I think we'll see very robust cash flow again, based on the commentary that we already provided that fourth quarter is always seasonally strong. But I think given the actions we're taking, it will be even more robust, in line with our guide.

我認為，根據我們已經提供的第四季度始終季節性強勁的評論，我們將再次看到非常強勁的現金流。但我認為，考慮到我們正在採取的行動，它將更加有力，符合我們的指南。

Yes. Between cash flow and the proceeds of the disposal, which we'll receive in Q1, we're in a very healthy cash position.

是的。在現金流量和我們將在第一季收到的處置收益之間，我們的現金狀況非常健康。

That makes sense. And maybe just to follow up on the question around the sort of the sales outlook. So I think it's very clear and the right thing to do that you're sort of under selling into the channel, if you like, short-term, to make sure channel partners have low inventories entering the new year. When you sort of take that comment plus the improvement in some orders figures you've seen recently, does that make you sort of confident around the revenue growth outlook despite what the backlog has done? And so we should sort of take the low inventories in the channel plus the orders movement, that's a better determinant of sort of sales into early next year than perhaps what the backlog has been doing recently?

這就說得通了。也許只是為了跟進有關銷售前景的問題。因此，我認為，如果你願意的話，短期內你會在通路中減少銷售，以確保通路合作夥伴在進入新的一年時庫存較低，這是非常明確且正確的做法。當你考慮到這一評論加上你最近看到的一些訂單數據的改善時，這是否會讓你對收入成長前景充滿信心，儘管積壓的情況如何？因此，我們應該考慮通路中的低庫存加上訂單變動，這比最近的積壓情況更好地決定了明年初的銷售情況？

Yes. I mean at the end of the day, everything that's in our control for 2024, I think that we're taking the right move. So we discussed managing channel, right, from an inventory point of view. The reason that we highlighted some of the investments, we think that those are growth vectors that those businesses are going to grow despite the macro, right, that they're not subject to kind of general sentiment at the end of the day, or interest rates or anything else just because they've got a demand there.

是的。我的意思是，歸根結底，2024 年我們能掌控的一切，我認為我們正在採取正確的舉措。因此，我們從庫存的角度討論了管理管道，對吧。我們之所以強調一些投資，是因為我們認為這些是這些企業將會成長的成長載體，儘管宏觀經濟形勢如此，它們最終不會受到普遍情緒或興趣的影響利率或其他任何東西只是因為他們有需求。

So yes, I mean, look, we're -- knock wood, we're feeling positive about our setup going into 2024 based on how we've managed and we'll continue to manage 2023.

所以，是的，我的意思是，看，我們——敲木頭，根據我們的管理方式，我們對進入 2024 年的設置感到積極，並且我們將繼續管理 2023 年。

The next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的迪恩‧德雷 (Deane Dray)。

I was hoping to get some color on the retail fueling. It just sounds like there was a bit of a disconnect between below ground and above ground. Below ground seem to be feeling the effects of higher rates and maybe some destock, but you weren't seeing that above the ground. But just can you square those, please?

我希望能對零售加油有所了解。聽起來地下和地上之間有點脫節。地下似乎感受到了更高利率的影響，也許還有一些去庫存的影響，但你在地面上卻沒有看到這種情況。但你能把它們平方嗎？

Sure. We had -- in 2022, we had a great year in below ground and a bad year in above ground. So if you think about kind of the time it takes to build sites or refurbishment sites, you had kind of capacity that got built and then they finished the job on the top this year. Below ground now is in a bit of a headwind because of the fact that if you think about like a retailer. A retailer is going to spec in the product that they want at a fueling site and then going to go contract the installation. .

當然。 2022 年，我們在地下度過了美好的一年，在地上度過了糟糕的一年。因此，如果你考慮一下建造工地或翻新工地所需的時間，你會發現，你已經建成了一定的產能，然後他們今年就完成了最高的工作。地下現在有點逆風，因為如果你像零售商一樣思考的話。零售商將在加油站指定他們想要的產品規格，然後簽訂安裝合約。 。

And part of the problem is it's no longer labor anymore, and it's no longer a product availability. It's the fact that those contractors need working capital loans in order to do these projects and the cost of those loans now is probably quintupled over the last year or so. It was very nice for everybody to be talking about 5%. 5% is a baseline. You're a contractor, you need a working capital loan, you're paying 9 or 10. And so that is putting a little bit of a drag in terms of getting that work done, number one.

部分問題在於它不再是勞動力，也不再是產品的可用性。事實上，這些承包商需要營運資金貸款才能完成這些項目，而這些貸款的成本現在可能是過去一年左右的五倍。大家都在談論 5%，這真是太好了。 5%是一個基準。你是一名承包商，你需要一筆營運資金貸款，你要支付 9 或 10 美元。因此，這對完成這項工作造成了一點拖累，第一。

And number two, just a general comment, as I gave the example before, there's that -- a lot of that underground business, at least the recurring revenue portion of it is sold through distribution, the carrying cost of that inventory has gone up quite a bit, and you basically see almost an over liquidation of inventory in the chain, because they know that our lead times are down low, so they're taking their inventory down because they don't want to pay the carrying cost. At some point, that's got to give, and we're not incentivizing through price or terms to push that inventory back into the system. We'll deal with that on the come when we get into 2024.

第二，只是一般性評論，正如我之前舉的例子，很多地下業務，至少其經常性收入部分是透過分銷出售的，庫存的持有成本已經上升了相當多一點點，你基本上會看到供應鏈中的庫存幾乎過度清算，因為他們知道我們的交貨時間很短，所以他們正在減少庫存，因為他們不想支付持有成本。在某些時候，這必須給予，我們不會透過價格或條款來激勵將庫存推回系統。當我們進入 2024 年時，我們將立即處理這個問題。

All right. That's really helpful. And then just a follow-up on the geographies. Just the idea, what were the surprises and maybe you're seeing some of the macro begin to be felt on the U.S. side was down 7%? But -- what surprised you there?

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後是地理方面的後續行動。只是一個想法，有什麼驚喜，也許你看到美國方面開始感受到一些宏觀因素下降了 7%？但是——什麼讓你感到驚訝？

I think it's more and more -- look, no one came into this year thinking that Europe was going to be robust. It hasn't been. I think that CO2 systems and heat exchangers are running counter to that argument. CO2 is actually performing quite well. The heat exchanger issue, like I said, up until 45 days ago, you couldn't make enough of them to supply heat pump demand and that just came to quite a halt here, I think, in a recognition that there's too much inventory in the chain.

我認為，今年沒有人認為歐洲會變得強大。事實並非如此。我認為二氧化碳系統和熱交換器與這個論點背道而馳。 CO2 實際上表現得相當好。熱交換器問題，就像我說的，直到 45 天前，你還無法製造足夠的熱交換器來滿足熱泵需求，我認為，這一切在這裡就停止了，因為認識到庫存過多連鎖，鏈條。

We were not very hopeful about China, and China has been poor. And I think in the U.S., it's just the general -- what I just answered, I gave you the example a second ago. In the U.S., you can't raise rates at the rate we're doing and not to have knock-on effects in terms of the carrying cost and that's what we're seeing now.

我們對中國不抱太大希望，中國一直很窮。我認為在美國，這只是一般情況——我剛才回答的，我剛才給了你這個例子。在美國，你不能以我們現在的速度提高利率，同時又不會對持有成本產生連鎖反應，這就是我們現在所看到的。

Our final question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科。

So going back to the noncore kind of the portfolio review, I mean, obviously, there's a part of game about trying to guess, which assets might not meet the cuts going forward. But DESTACO wasn't one of those assets. I think already seen as potentially noncore. So I'm just curious given the decent growth, obviously, very good margins, what was it that led that asset to being sold?

因此，回到投資組合審查的非核心類型，我的意思是，顯然，遊戲中有一部分是試圖猜測哪些資產可能無法滿足未來的削減。但 DESTACO 並不是這些資產之一。我認為已經被視為潛在的非核心。因此，我只是好奇，鑑於成長不錯，顯然，利潤率非常高，是什麼導致該資產被出售？

I think that the growth was okay, at least in my tenure here. The end market exposure, both from -- the end market exposure and the geographical exposure, we did not find attractive.

我認為成長還不錯，至少在我任職期間是如此。終端市場風險，無論是終端市場風險或地理風險，我們都沒有發現吸引力。

Too much Europe, I assume?

我想歐洲太多了？

Too much auto and too much Asia.

太多的汽車和太多的亞洲。

Too much Asia.

亞洲太多了。

Too much China, yes.

中國太多了，是的。

Okay. And then just on buybacks, you did an ASR last year. You've got a fair amount of balancing flexibility if you get your free cash flow forecast with the sale as well. I mean, any thoughts on buybacks at these levels?

好的。然後就回購而言，你去年做了 ASR。如果您在銷售時也獲得了自由現金流預測，那麼您就擁有相當大的平衡靈活性。我的意思是，對這些水準的回購有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. I mean, look, buying back our stock at these levels has become very attractive. I think that we've got a lot of moving parts right here in terms of delivering on the fourth quarter and the cash flow. And then we've got an outbound on the acquisition and an inbound on the disposal. After all that is settled, we'll clearly be in a very healthy balance sheet position. And I'm sure that capital return discussion will come to the forefront.

是的。我的意思是，看，在這些水平上回購我們的股票已經變得非常有吸引力。我認為，在第四季度的交付和現金流方面，我們有很多變化。然後我們有收購的出站和處置的入站。一切解決後，我們的資產負債表顯然將處於非常健康的狀態。我確信資本回報的討論將成為焦點。

Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer period and Dover's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。我們的問答環節和多佛 2023 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。