杜邦 (DD) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the DuPont Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Chris Mecray. You may begin your conference.

早安，歡迎參加杜邦 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。請注意，此通話正在錄音。 （接線員指示）我現在將把電話轉給 Chris Mecray。您可以開始您的會議了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for DuPont's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me today are Ed Breen, Chief Executive Officer; and Lori Koch, Chief Financial Officer.

早安，感謝您參加杜邦 2023 年第四季和全年財務表現電話會議。今天和我一起來的還有執行長 Ed Breen；和財務長洛里·科赫(Lori Koch)。

We prepared slides to supplement our remarks, which are posted on DuPont's website under the Investor Relations tab and through the webcast link. Please read the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the slides. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations or predictions about the future. Because these statements are based on current assumptions and factors that involve risks and uncertainties, our actual performance or results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements.

我們準備了幻燈片來補充我們的評論，這些幻燈片透過網路廣播連結發佈在杜邦網站的「投資者關係」標籤下。請閱讀幻燈片中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。在這次電話會議中，我們將就我們對未來的期望或預測做出前瞻性聲明。由於這些陳述是基於目前的假設和涉及風險和不確定性的因素，因此我們的實際表現或結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

Our Form 10-K as updated by our current and periodic reports, includes detailed discussion of principal risks and uncertainties, which may cause such differences. Unless otherwise specified, all historical financial measures presented today are on a continuing operations basis and exclude significant items. We'll also refer to other non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is included in our press release and presentation materials have been posted to DuPont's Investor Relations website. I'll now turn the call over to Ed.

我們的 10-K 表格已根據當前報告和定期報告進行更新，其中包括對可能導致此類差異的主要風險和不確定性的詳細討論。除非另有說明，今天提出的所有歷史財務指標均以持續經營為基礎，不包括重要項目。我們也將參考其他非公認會計準則衡量標準。我們的新聞稿中包含了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調節，演示資料已發佈到杜邦投資者關係網站上。我現在將把電話轉給艾德。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial review. This morning's earnings release is consistent with the preliminary results announced on January 24, and we have added our customary segment detail and end market color while also providing incremental detail on our 2024 financial forecast.

早安，感謝您參與我們的 2023 年第四季和全年財務回顧。今天早上發布的財報與 1 月 24 日公佈的初步業績一致，我們添加了慣常的細分市場細節和終端市場色彩，同時也提供了 2024 年財務預測的增量細節。

Broadly, we continue to see encouraging stabilization within electronics' markets. Our Semiconductor Technologies business reported sequential sales growth of 2% in the fourth quarter, as expected, as the first sign of getting past the bottom in chip production. In Interconnect Solutions, we saw a return to year-over-year volume growth, with volumes up 2% versus the prior year after sales bottomed earlier in 2023.

總體而言，我們繼續看到電子市場的穩定性令人鼓舞。我們的半導體技術業務報告稱，第四季度銷售額環比增長 2%，符合預期，這是晶片生產走出谷底的第一個跡象。在互連解決方案中，我們看到銷量恢復了同比增長，在 2023 年初銷量觸底後，銷量比上年增長了 2%。

However, as we finish 2023, we did see additional channel inventory destocking within many of our industrial base businesses as well as continued weak demand in China with incremental weakness in our China water business. This resulted in fourth quarter net sales, which declined 7% year-over-year, falling below our guidance expectations.

然而，到 2023 年結束時，我們確實看到許多工業基礎業務中出現了額外的渠道庫存去庫存，以及中國需求持續疲軟，我們的中國水務業務也逐漸疲軟。這導致第四季淨銷售額年減 7%，低於我們的指導預期。

We have already noted that we see a continuation of similar volume trends into the first quarter, and I will come back to this, but we are encouraged that we see signs of market stabilization, bottoming of customer inventories and a pickup in orders in the month of January that support a view of recovering sales and earnings through 2024.

我們已經注意到，我們看到第一季將繼續出現類似的銷售趨勢，我將回到這一點，但令我們感到鼓舞的是，我們看到市場穩定的跡象、客戶庫存觸底以及本月訂單回升1 月的數據支持了銷售和獲利到 2024 年恢復的觀點。

Fourth quarter operating EBITDA of $715 million was down 6% year-over-year, reflecting continued pressure across many of our largely short-cycle businesses. We remain very focused on managing what we can control, including discretionary spending levers and also executing the restructuring actions announced last November. This focus helped to contain margin impact in the period despite a 9% drop in volume.

第四季營運 EBITDA 為 7.15 億美元，年減 6%，反映出我們許多短週期業務的持續壓力。我們仍然非常專注於管理我們可以控制的事情，包括可自由支配的支出槓桿以及去年 11 月宣布的重組行動。儘管銷量下降了 9%，但這一重點有助於控制這段時期的利潤率影響。

Looking into 2024, we continue to target annualized cost savings of $150 million, which we will begin to realize later in the first quarter and which should further bolster our go-forward margin profile. I am pleased we finished the year with strong cash generation as we continue to prioritize working capital improvement and discipline following the inventory build seen during the supply challenge 2022 period.

展望 2024 年，我們繼續目標是每年節省 1.5 億美元的成本，我們將在第一季稍後開始實現這一目標，這將進一步增強我們的未來利潤率狀況。我很高興我們以強勁的現金產生結束了這一年，因為在 2022 年供應挑戰期間出現庫存增加後，我們繼續優先考慮營運資本的改善和紀律。

For the full year, adjusted free cash flow was $1.6 billion with conversion at 100% versus our target of greater than 90%. This included fourth quarter adjusted free cash flow of $501 million, which represented 133% conversion. Adjusted EPS for the year of $3.48 per share increased over last year as benefits from our ongoing capital allocation and share repurchase more than offset substantial volume decrements.

全年調整後自由現金流為 16 億美元，轉換率為 100%，而我們的目標為 90% 以上。其中包括第四季調整後自由現金流 5.01 億美元，轉換率為 133%。本年度調整後每股收益為 3.48 美元，較去年增加，因為我們持續的資本配置和股票回購帶來的收益足以抵消銷售量的大幅下降。

Turning to Slide 4. We continue to execute on our capital allocation priorities. First, this morning, we announced that we completed the $2 billion accelerated share repurchase transaction launched last September. At the conclusion of the ASR transaction, we retired an additional 6.7 million shares with the true-up, bringing the total to 27.9 million shares retired under the $2 billion ASR.

轉向投影片 4。我們繼續執行我們的資本配置優先事項。首先，今天早上，我們宣布完成了去年 9 月啟動的 20 億美元加速股票回購交易。 ASR 交易結束時，我們透過調整額外退役了 670 萬股，使 20 億美元 ASR 下退役的股票總數達到 2,790 萬股。

Completion of this ASR wraps up the $5 billion program that we announced in November 2022, enabling a repurchase of approximately 15% of our outstanding shares over this time period. We also announced that our Board approved a new $1 billion share repurchase program, and we intend to launch a new $500 million ASR transaction imminently. We expect to complete the full $1 billion program by the end of this year.

此次 ASR 的完成標誌著我們在 2022 年 11 月宣布的 50 億美元計劃的完成，使我們能夠在此期間回購約 15% 的已發行股票。我們還宣布，董事會批准了一項新的 10 億美元股票回購計劃，並且我們打算立即啟動一項新的 5 億美元 ASR 交易。我們預計到今年年底將完成整個 10 億美元的計畫。

Finally, today, we also announced an increase in our quarterly dividend of $0.38 per share or a 6% increase. We will continue to target a dividend payout ratio of 35% to 45% over time and expect to increase our dividend annually in line with earnings growth. We exited 2023 on a favorable balance sheet and liquidity position with an adjusted net leverage ratio of 2.1x and with no long-term bond maturities due until November of 2025.

最後，今天我們也宣布將季度股息增加至每股 0.38 美元，增加 6%。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續以 35% 至 45% 的股息支付率為目標，並預計每年根據獲利成長增加股息。 2023 年結束時，我們的資產負債表和流動性狀況良好，調整後的淨槓桿率為 2.1 倍，且 2025 年 11 月之前沒有到期的長期債券。

We also repaid $300 million of debt due during the fourth quarter with cash on hand. Finally, we also continue to invest in innovation and our operational excellence program to support long-term organic growth. In 2024, we expect capital spending at about 5% of sales and target R&D spend at about 4% of sales for total DuPont.

我們也用手頭現金償還了第四季到期的 3 億美元債務。最後，我們也持續投資於創新和卓越營運計劃，以支持長期有機成長。到 2024 年，我們預計資本支出將佔杜邦總銷售額的 5% 左右，研發支出目標將佔杜邦總銷售額的 4% 左右。

Regarding our innovation and growth pipeline, we were pleased during the fourth quarter with our electronics portfolio to be selected by a leading U.S. OEM for our micro fill metallization product, which offers improved plating uniformity for advanced computing. In Water, our team significantly advanced commercialization of the OxyMem membrane products for waste and water biological treatment.

關於我們的創新和成長管道，我們很高興第四季度我們的電子產品組合被美國領先的 OEM 選擇用於我們的微填充金屬化產品，該產品為先進計算提供了改進的電鍍均勻性。在水領域，我們的團隊顯著地推進了用於廢棄物和水生物處理的 OxyMem 薄膜產品的商業化。

Within Industrial, our Kalrez business opened a new facility in Delaware to support growth for its global semiconductor products. And finally, within Adhesives, we launched a new structural epoxy adhesive, specific for large-scale energy storage system.

在工業領域，我們的 Kalrez 業務在特拉華州開設了一家新工廠，以支持其全球半導體產品的成長。最後，在黏合劑領域，我們推出了一種新型結構環氧黏合劑，專門用於大型儲能係統。

Before I turn it over to Lori, let's review our expected demand outlook by business based on active conversations that we have had with customers recently. For Electronics, our ICS business serving printed circuit boards already bottomed in mid-2023 and continues to gradually recover alongside global electronics demand. We expect utilization for our customers in this area to increase this year into the 60s on a percentage basis from the mid-50s in the first quarter.

在我將其交給 Lori 之前，讓我們根據最近與客戶的積極對話來回顧我們按業務劃分的預期需求前景。對於電子產品，我們為印刷電路板提供服務的 ICS 業務已於 2023 年中期觸底，並隨著全球電子產品需求繼續逐步復甦。我們預計今年該領域客戶的利用率將從第一季的 50 左右增加到 60 左右。

For semiconductor industry forecast for chip production that were pushed out several times in 2023 are signaling a firmer 2024 recovery, and our outlook assumes chip fab utilization increasing through the year to exit at a run rate around the low 80s on a percentage basis from the low 70s in the first quarter. This inflection also includes stabilization for end market consumption in smartphone, PC and tablet markets, driven in part by replacement demand as well as improved data center demand bolstered by AI-driven growth.

對於半導體產業而言，對2023 年晶片產量的預測多次推遲，這預示著2024 年將出現更強勁的複蘇，我們的前景假設晶片工廠利用率全年不斷增加，以百分比水平從低點開始運行，運行率將降至80 左右。70年代第一季。這種拐點還包括智慧型手機、個人電腦和平板電腦市場終端市場消費的穩定，部分原因是更換需求以及人工智慧驅動的成長所推動的資料中心需求的改善。

These trends bode well for DuPont's strength within electronics materials and our customers are pointing to improve volume in both semi and ICS during 2024. Within our industrial based businesses, while inventory destocking impacts have continued into the first quarter, customer feedback indicates a positive order inflection as the year progresses.

這些趨勢預示著杜邦在電子材料領域的實力，我們的客戶預計2024 年半成品和ICS 的銷售將有所提高。在我們的工業業務中，雖然庫存去庫存的影響持續到第一季度，但客戶反饋表明訂單出現了積極的變化隨著時間的推移。

Let's review specific end markets. First Shelter, which saw notable destock in 2023, now sits with inventory back to normal levels and we expect a slight positive volume compare in 2024, beginning in the first quarter. In Safety, we believe our customers' inventory is also close to normal at this point for Tyvek Medical Packaging, and we expect sales to recover during the second and into the third quarter. Further, we expect reduced destock impact within safety solutions across a couple of industrial end markets in the second half.

讓我們回顧一下具體的終端市場。 First Shelter 在 2023 年庫存顯著減少，目前庫存已恢復至正常水平，我們預計 2024 年（從第一季開始）銷量將略有增長。在安全方面，我們相信目前客戶的 Tyvek 醫療包裝庫存也接近正常水平，我們預計銷售將在第二季和第三季恢復。此外，我們預計下半年幾個工業終端市場安全解決方案的去庫存影響將會減少。

In Water, we have communicated with our distributor customers in China, and we expect a sequential pickup in sales towards the end of the second quarter. Distributor inventories have declined substantially from the peak last year.

在水方面，我們已經與中國的經銷商客戶進行了溝通，我們預計第二季末銷售額將連續回升。經銷商庫存較去年高峰大幅下降。

Finally, I would mention that we expect to see order improvement over the next several quarters in our Kalrez business with Industrial Solutions. Our Liveo Biopharma business is anticipated to recover later in the second half. So we have firm signals from a wide range of businesses within the DuPont portfolio that support a sales bottom in early 2024. This is reflected in stronger orders during the month of January after continued weakness in December.

最後，我要提到的是，我們預計未來幾季我們的 Kalrez 業務與工業解決方案的訂單將會有所改善。我們的 Liveo Biopharma 業務預計將在下半年稍後恢復。因此，我們從杜邦投資組合中的眾多業務中得到了堅定的信號，這些信號支持 2024 年初銷售觸底。這反映在繼 12 月持續疲軟之後 1 月份訂單增加。

To wrap up, we remain confident that our key end markets are well positioned for long-term growth and our teams are extremely focused on operating discipline and site-level execution, which positions us well to accelerate growth as inventories normalize. With that, I'll turn it over to Lori to cover the financial results and outlook in detail.

總而言之，我們仍然相信我們的主要終端市場處於長期成長的有利位置，並且我們的團隊非常注重營運紀律和現場執行，這使我們能夠在庫存正常化時加速成長。接下來，我將把它交給 Lori，詳細介紹財務表現和前景。

Thanks, Ed, and good morning. Our financial results in 2023 were clearly impacted by significant destocking and demand pressure in China, but our focus has remained on sound operational execution across the business. I'm very pleased that our team's effort to drive productivity and operational excellence, clearly minimize decremental margins and help drive substantial cash flow improvement.

謝謝，艾德，早安。我們 2023 年的財務表現顯然受到中國大幅去庫存和需求壓力的影響，但我們的重點仍然是整個業務的良好營運執行。我很高興我們的團隊為提高生產力和卓越營運所做的努力，大幅減少了利潤下降，並幫助推動現金流的大幅改善。

In 2024, our continued proactive approach to managing the business will yield impactable cost reduction beginning later in the first quarter and building from Bayer from the restructuring actions announced last November. We anticipate yielding at least 2/3 of the total $150 million in restructuring benefits during 2024 with the balance realized next year.

到 2024 年，我們持續積極主動的業務管理方法將從第一季稍後開始，並在拜耳去年 11 月宣布的重組行動的基礎上實現顯著的成本削減。我們預計 2024 年將產生至少 1.5 億美元重組收益總額中的 2/3，餘額將於明年實現。

Like Ed, I'm also encouraged by the expected trajectory of demand and volume based on direct customer feedback and data supporting the bottoming of channel inventory in key end markets. Our current forecast assumes the bottom for total company sales and earnings in the first quarter followed by steady recovery as the year progresses with a return to year-over-year growth in the second half.

和艾德一樣，我也對基於直接客戶回饋和支援關鍵終端市場通路庫存觸底的數據的需求和銷售預期軌跡感到鼓舞。我們目前的預測假設公司總銷售額和獲利在第一季觸底，隨後隨著今年的進展穩步復甦，下半年恢復同比成長。

I'll come back to the outlook later, but first, I'll cover our results. Regarding our fourth quarter financial highlights on Slide 5, net sales of $2.9 billion decreased 7% versus the year ago period as a 10% organic sales decline was partially offset by a 3% portfolio benefit due primarily to the Spectrum acquisition. The organic sales decline reflects a 9% decrease in volume and a 1% decrease in price. Lower volume included the impact of channel inventory destocking within W&P, Safety Solutions line of business, most notably for Tyvek Medical Packaging.

我稍後會回到展望，但首先，我將介紹我們的結果。關於投影片5 上我們第四季的財務亮點，淨銷售額29 億美元比去年同期下降7%，其中10% 的有機銷售額下降被主要由於Spectrum 收購而帶來的3% 的投資組合收益部分抵消。有機銷售額下降反映了銷量下降 9% 和價格下降 1%。銷售下降包括 W&P、安全解決方案業務線內通路庫存去庫存的影響，尤其是 Tyvek 醫療包裝。

We also saw accelerated volume decline within Water Solutions in China, driven primarily by distributor destocking and weaker demand. On a segment view, W&P and E&I organic sales declined 15% and 7%, respectively, while organic sales and corporate declined 4%. From a regional perspective, DuPont sales decreased on an organic basis globally versus the year ago period, with North America, Asia Pacific and Europe, down 13%, 11% and 9%, respectively.

我們也看到水解決方案在中國的銷售加速下降，這主要是由於經銷商去庫存和需求疲軟所致。從細分市場來看，W&P 和 E&I 有機銷售額分別下降了 15% 和 7%，而有機銷售額和企業銷售額則下降了 4%。從區域來看，杜邦全球銷售額較去年同期有機下降，其中北美、亞太和歐洲分別下降13%、11%和9%。

China sales were down 14% versus the prior year. Fourth quarter operating EBITDA of $715 million decreased 6% versus the year ago period as volume declines and the impact of reduced production rates to better align inventory with demand were partially offset by lower input costs, discrete items, which benefited earnings by about $40 million, and Spectrum earnings contribution. About $25 million of the discrete item benefits were reported within the W&P segment, reflecting a land sale and other credits with the remainder reflected in corporate.

中國銷售額較上年下降 14%。第四季營運EBITDA 為7.15 億美元，較去年同期下降6%，原因是銷量下降以及為更好地調整庫存與需求而降低生產率的影響，但部分被投入成本和離散項目的降低所抵消，這使收益增加了約4000 萬美元，和頻譜收益貢獻。 W&P 部門報告了大約 2500 萬美元的離散項目收益，反映了土地出售和其他信貸，其餘則反映在公司中。

Operating EBITDA margin during the quarter of 24.7% increased 30 basis points versus the year ago period. In the fourth quarter, driven by continued challenging construction market conditions coupled with ongoing channel inventory destocking, we recorded a noncash goodwill impairment charge of about $800 million. The charge relates to our protection reporting unit, which consists of the Shelter and Safety Solutions lines of business within W&P and is excluded from our adjusted operating results.

本季營運 EBITDA 利潤率為 24.7%，較去年同期成長 30 個基點。第四季度，在持續充滿挑戰的建築市場狀況以及持續的通路庫存去庫存的推動下，我們記錄了約 8 億美元的非現金商譽減損費用。該指控與我們的保護報告部門有關，該部門由 W&P 內的庇護所和安全解決方案業務線組成，不包括在我們調整後的經營業績中。

As a reminder, the carrying value of the legacy DuPont assets and liabilities were marked at fair value and significant goodwill and intangible balances were recorded in connection with the Dow/DuPont merger. Despite the write-down, we maintain long-term confidence in the protection brand offering and our market-leading positions remain strong. We continue to invest in and expand our application of element expertise in these markets and we have taken actions to improve our cost structure and to enhance our competitiveness with destocking end.

需要提醒的是，杜邦遺留資產和負債的帳面價值以公允價值標記，並記錄了與陶氏/杜邦合併相關的大量商譽和無形餘額。儘管進行了減記，我們對品牌保護產品仍保持長期信心，並且我們的市場領先地位依然穩固。我們繼續在這些市場投資和擴大元素專業知識的應用，並採取行動改善我們的成本結構，並透過去庫存來增強我們的競爭力。

Regarding cash flow, we are very pleased with our continued cash flow improvement as we worked hard in 2023 to optimize working capital performance and especially to rightsize our inventory levels following the supply chain disruptions of 2022. On a continuing operations basis, cash flow from operations of $646 million, less capital expenditures of $145 million resulted in adjusted free cash flow of $501 million in the fourth quarter, a significant increase versus $188 million in the year ago period. Adjusted free cash flow conversion during the quarter was 133%, significantly ahead of last year.

關於現金流，我們對現金流的持續改善感到非常高興，因為我們在2023 年努力優化營運資金績效，特別是在2022 年供應鏈中斷後調整我們的庫存水平。在持續經營的基礎上，來自運營的現金流資本支出為 6.46 億美元，減去 1.45 億美元的資本支出，第四季度調整後自由現金流為 5.01 億美元，與去年同期的 1.88 億美元相比大幅增加。本季調整後的自由現金流轉換率為 133%，大幅領先去年。

Turning to Slide 6. Adjusted EPS for the quarter of $0.87 per share decreased from $0.89 in the year ago period. Lower segment earnings and certain below-the-line items, including a $0.05 headwind from foreign exchange losses led by devaluation of the Argentinian peso, more than offset an $0.08 benefit from a lower share count and a $0.03 benefit from a lower tax rate.

轉向投影片 6。本季調整後每股收益為 0.87 美元，低於去年同期的 0.89 美元。較低的部門利潤和某些線下項目，包括阿根廷比索貶值導致的外匯損失帶來的0.05 美元逆風，遠遠抵消了股票數量減少帶來的0.08 美元收益和較低稅率帶來的0.03 美元收益。

Our tax rate for the quarter was 19.2%, down from 22.2% in the year ago period and lower than our previously communicated modeling guidance, driven by certain discrete tax benefits. Our full year tax rate for 2023 was 22.8%, and our 2024 outlook assumes a base tax rate of 23% to 24%.

在某些離散稅收優惠的推動下，我們本季的稅率為 19.2%，低於去年同期的 22.2%，也低於我們先前傳達的建模指引。我們 2023 年的全年稅率為 22.8%，我們的 2024 年展望假設基本稅率為 23% 至 24%。

Turning to segment results, beginning with E&I on Slide 7. E&I fourth quarter net sales of $1.4 billion increased 1% as the Spectrum sales contribution of 8% was mostly offset by an organic sales decline of 7%. The organic sales decline reflects a 5% decrease in volume and a 2% decrease in price. At the line of business level, organic sales for semiconductor technologies were down high single digits versus the year ago period resulting from reduced semi fab utilization rates as customers work to reduce finished inventories.

轉向部門業績，從幻燈片 7 上的 E&I 開始。E&I 第四季度淨銷售額為 14 億美元，增長 1%，其中 Spectrum 銷售額的 8% 貢獻大部分被有機銷售額下降 7% 所抵消。有機銷售額下降反映了銷量下降 5% 和價格下降 2%。在業務層面，半導體技術的有機銷售額與去年同期相比下降了高個位數，原因是客戶努力減少成品庫存，導致半晶圓廠利用率下降。

We did see sequential improvement within semi as sales increased 2% in the fourth quarter, [signaling] stabilization for the business. Our customer interactions and reduced channel inventory levels point to continued recovery expected in semi during 2024 with sequential sales up slightly in the first quarter, an increased lift from the second quarter onwards.

我們確實看到半成品半導體的環比改善，第四季度銷售額增長了 2%，[顯示]業務穩定。我們的客戶互動和通路庫存水準的降低表明半成品預計將在 2024 年持續復甦，第一季的環比銷售額將略有上升，從第二季開始增幅更大。

Within Interconnect Solutions, organic sales declined mid-single digits as low single-digit volume gains were more than offset by price decreases driven by lower metal pricing. Demand continues to stabilize, and this is the first quarter since the downturn started where we saw year-over-year volume growth.

在互連解決方案中，有機銷售額下降了中個位數，因為較低的個位數銷售成長被金屬價格下跌導致的價格下跌所抵消。需求持續穩定，這是自經濟衰退開始以來第一個季度銷量年增。

Organic sales for Industrial Solutions were down mid-single digits due primarily to channel inventory destocking within our Liveo product line for biopharma markets. And for products, such as Kalrez O-rings, which are primarily used in semiconductor equipment. These declines were partially offset by continued strong demand for OLED display materials.

工業解決方案的有機銷售額下降了中個位數，這主要是由於我們針對生物製藥市場的 Liveo 產品線內的通路庫存去庫存。對於主要用於半導體設備的產品，例如 Kalrez O 型環。這些下降被對 OLED 顯示材料持續強勁的需求部分抵消。

Operating EBITDA for E&I of $378 million was down versus the year ago period due to volume declines and lower operating rates to better align inventory with demand, partially offset by Spectrum earnings contribution.

E&I 的營業 EBITDA 為 3.78 億美元，較上年同期下降，原因是銷量下降以及為更好地調整庫存與需求而降低的開工率，但部分被 Spectrum 的盈利貢獻所抵消。

Turning to Slide 8. W&P fourth quarter net sales of $1.3 billion declined 15% versus the year ago period due to volume decline. Within Safety Solutions, organic sales were down 20% on lower volumes, driven mainly by channel inventory destocking, most notably for Tyvek Medical Packaging products. Within Water, organic sales were down high teens driven by distributor inventory destocking and lower industrial demand in China.

轉向幻燈片 8。由於銷量下降，W&P 第四季淨銷售額為 13 億美元，較去年同期下降 15%。在安全解決方案領域，由於銷售量下降，有機銷售額下降了 20%，這主要是由於通路庫存去庫存所致，尤其是 Tyvek 醫療包裝產品。在水領域，由於經銷商庫存去庫存和中國工業需求下降，有機銷售額下降了十幾位數。

Shelter Solutions sales were down mid-single digits on an organic basis. The year-over-year decline has continued to improve, and we believe channel inventory destocking for construction has been completed based on distributor inventory, now being back at normal levels. Operating EBITDA for WMP during the quarter of $314 million decreased 13% due to lower volumes and reduced production rates, partially offset by lower input costs and certain discrete item benefits of about $25 million.

Shelter Solutions 的銷售額有機下降了個位數中位數。年比降幅持續改善，我們認為基於經銷商庫存的通路庫存去庫存建設已經完成，目前已經恢復到正常水準。由於銷量下降和生產率下降，本季全脂奶粉的營業 EBITDA 為 3.14 億美元，下降了 13%，但部分被投入成本下降和某些離散項目收益約 2500 萬美元所抵消。

Turning to Slide 9. I'll review our first quarter 2024 outlook and full year guidance expectations. For the first quarter of 2024, we expect net sales of about $2.8 billion and operating EBITDA of about $610 million. On a volume basis, we are seeing similar inventory destocking trends from fourth quarter continue into 2024, driven by Water Solutions in China and in several of our industrial-based businesses.

轉向幻燈片 9。我將回顧我們的 2024 年第一季展望和全年指導預期。 2024 年第一季度，我們預計淨銷售額約為 28 億美元，營運 EBITDA 約為 6.1 億美元。從數量上看，在中國水解決方案和我們的幾個工業業務的推動下，我們看到從第四季度到 2024 年，類似的庫存去庫存趨勢一直持續到 2024 年。

Recovery timing is expected to vary by end market as the year progresses, but we expect first quarter at the bottom on a consolidated basis. The expected sequential decline in operating EBITDA includes the absence of discrete items, which benefited fourth quarter as outlined earlier. The first quarter outlook also includes certain costs that further impact period margins, primarily within W&P related to new capacity and safety as well as the impact of lower volume.

隨著今年的進展，復甦時間預計將因終端市場而異，但我們預計第一季將在綜合基礎上觸底。預計營業 EBITDA 會連續下降，其中包括離散項目的缺失，如前所述，該項目使第四季度受益。第一季展望還包括進一步影響期間利潤率的某些成本，主要是在 W&P 內與新產能和安全性以及銷售下降的影響相關的成本。

For the second quarter, we expect mid-single-digit sequential sales improvement and approximate 10% increase in operating EBITDA from first quarter. This assumes volume improvement driven by reduced inventory destocking impacts in Water Solutions and Medical Packaging, continued Electronics recovery and favorable seasonality in ICS and Shelter. Sequential EBITDA should benefit from this volume growth and additional realization of restructuring cost savings.

對於第二季度，我們預計銷售額將實現中個位數的環比改善，營業 EBITDA 較第一季成長約 10%。這個假設是由於水解決方案和醫療包裝的庫存去庫存影響減少、電子產品持續復甦以及工業控制系統和庇護所的有利季節性推動的，銷售有所改善。連續的 EBITDA 應該會受益於銷售量的成長和重組成本節省的額外實現。

For the full year 2024, we expect net sales to be between $11.9 billion and $12.3 billion with operating EBITDA expected to be between $2.8 billion and $3 billion. Year-over-year sales growth in the second half is expected to be driven by ongoing electronics market recovery, including improvement in semiconductor fab utilization rate and continued utilization improvement for PCB manufacturing within ICS, along with further abatement of channel inventory destocking in our industrial businesses.

對於 2024 年全年，我們預計淨銷售額將在 119 億美元至 123 億美元之間，營業 EBITDA 預計將在 28 億美元至 30 億美元之間。下半年的同比銷售成長預計將受到電子市場持續復甦的推動，包括半導體工廠利用率的提高和 ICS 內 PCB 製造利用率的持續提高，以及我們工業領域通路庫存去庫存的進一步減少。企業。

For second half earnings, drivers include volume improvement outlined above alongside expected mix benefits as well as ongoing realization of cost savings. Our current outlook also includes a neutral net impact from price cost for the year as slight price declines are expected to be offset by the carryover benefit of lower input costs.

對於下半年的獲利，驅動因素包括上述銷售改善以及預期的組合效益以及持續實現的成本節約。我們目前的前景還包括今年價格成本的中性淨影響，因為預計價格的小幅下跌將被投入成本降低的結轉效益所抵消。

We expect full year adjusted EPS in the range of $3.25 to $3.65 per share, which assumes the benefit of a lower share count is mostly offset by lower interest income, higher depreciation and a higher tax rate as detailed on our outlook slide.

我們預計全年調整後每股盈餘將在每股3.25 美元至3.65 美元之間，假設股票數量減少的好處大部分被利息收入減少、折舊增加和稅率增加所抵消，詳情請參閱我們的展望幻燈片。

With that, we are pleased to take your questions, and I'll turn it back over to the operator to open the Q&A.

至此，我們很高興回答您的問題，我會將其轉回給接線員以開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

I mean, no huge surprises here, but some of the commentary around kind of price versus cost seemed a little bit incrementally cautious. Is that just a function of kind of weaker demand in general, just sloppy demand that's out there? Is it kind of a mix, just given how weak China is? Just level set, maybe I'm overreading this a little bit. So if we can just talk about kind of pricing power versus maybe what you're expecting overall in '24, that would be helpful.

我的意思是，這裡沒有什麼大的驚喜，但一些關於價格與成本的評論似乎有點謹慎。這是否只是整體需求疲軟、需求草率的結果？考慮到中國有多弱，這是一種混合嗎？只是水平設定，也許我有點過度解讀了。因此，如果我們能談談定價能力與您對 24 年整體預期的定價能力，那將會有所幫助。

Yes. So overall, full year, we have about a 1% price decline in total on the top line, and we expect carryover benefit from further raw material, logistics and energy savings to offset that to be neutral from a spread perspective for a year. So I wouldn't say it's any material change. We had always been in that camp in the raw material side. With the pricing, maybe we're being a little bit cautious just based on where the volumes fit in the first half. But overall, no material change, and I will say that 1% total price is all that material to the total company.

是的。因此，整體而言，全年價格整體下降約1%，我們預期原物料、物流和能源進一步節省所帶來的結轉收益將抵銷此影響，從利差角度來看，這一年的收益將維持中性。所以我不會說這是任何實質的改變。我們一直處於原料方面的陣營。就定價而言，根據上半年的銷售情況，我們可能會有點謹慎。但總體而言，沒有重大變化，我會說 1% 的總價格對整個公司來說都是重要的。

Scott, I'd also say -- I think we said on the last earnings call, there's a couple of end markets we would probably have to give up a little price to maintain our market position. I don't want to get into the details what they are on the call. But generally speaking, we're -- we have been holding price across the platform, and we continue to hold price across the platform. So really no change there at all.

斯科特，我還想說 - 我想我們在上次財報電話會議上說過，我們可能不得不在幾個終端市場上放棄一點價格來維持我們的市場地位。我不想詳細說明他們在電話中的內容。但總的來說，我們一直在整個平台上保持價格，我們將繼續在整個平台上保持價格。所以真的沒有任何改變。

Okay. That's helpful. And I think one change at the margin that we've seen this quarter is just China continues to be really weak and perhaps maybe even outlook for 2024 degrading a bit as we speak. But can you give us a little bit more color on your confidence in your guide as it relates to just the degradation in China being kind of over and perhaps we're at a bottom here?

好的。這很有幫助。我認為本季我們看到的一個微小變化是中國仍然非常疲軟，甚至在我們發言時 2024 年的前景可能會有所惡化。但是，您能否給我們更多關於您對指南的信心，因為這與中國的退化已經結束，也許我們正處於谷底有關？

Yes. So Scott, it was very interesting. I'll just kind of give you an overall DuPont comment on Waters and then specifically the Water business in China, where we've seen our real significant destock. And by the way, overall, it was really interesting to watch. We were still declining, as we said, in the fourth quarter on our order rates. But through the month of January, we've had high single-digit growth pretty much across the platform except for Kalrez and Biopharma, which we expect to come back later in the year before they pick up.

是的。斯科特，這非常有趣。我將向您提供杜邦公司對沃特世公司的整體評論，特別是中國的水務業務，我們在中國已經看到了真正的大幅去庫存。順便說一句，總的來說，觀看起來真的很有趣。正如我們所說，第四季度我們的訂單率仍在下降。但整個 1 月份，除了 Kalrez 和 Biopharma 之外，我們整個平台幾乎都實現了高單位數成長，我們預計這兩家公司將在今年稍後恢復成長。

I'll give you two other data points which are really interesting. And the Water business declined in the fourth quarter, but through the first month of January, our orders were up 13%. And a chunk of that was the water business in China. And interestingly there as you look at the order pattern of that increase, most of that starts May on, which is about what our distributors have been telling us when they bottom out on their inventory.

我將向您提供另外兩個非常有趣的數據點。水業務在第四季度有所下降，但到 1 月第一個月，我們的訂單增加了 13%。其中很大一部分是中國的水務業務。有趣的是，當你觀察訂單成長的模式時，你會發現其中大部分是從五月開始的，這就是我們的經銷商在庫存觸底時告訴我們的。

So -- and just another data point because it was one of the other ones we saw destock as we went through the back half of the fourth quarter was our Safety orders, which include medical packaging, which was another one that had the significant destock. Those orders were up 10% in the month of January. And that, by the way, is a shorter cycle book than water. Water is the only one we kind of get booked out 3, 4 months because people are accustomed to having the book out that far, but most of our other businesses are very short cycle.

因此，另一個數據點是我們在第四季後半段看到的庫存減少的其他數據點之一，那就是我們的安全訂單，其中包括醫療包裝，這是另一個大幅減少庫存的訂單。 1 月這些訂單增加了 10%。順便說一句，這是一本比水更短的周期書。水是我們唯一會在 3、4 個月內預訂的業務，因為人們習慣於將書預訂到那麼遠的時間，但我們大多數其他業務的周期都非常短。

So the 10% up on the safety orders and medical packaging would bode well for the lift that we're expecting to see from first to second quarter on the top line. So it was really interesting. We were going still negative going into the end of the year and now pretty broadly positive for the month of January.

因此，安全訂單和醫療包裝增加 10% 對於我們預計第一季到第二季營收的提升來說是個好兆頭。所以這真的很有趣。到年底我們仍然處於負面狀態，而現在一月的情況則相當樂觀。

And I would say on volumes in China specifically, they did -- they are still down on a full year basis, but we did see less of a decline as the year went on and it varied by business. So obviously, E&I was kind of first into the China downturn, and they actually delivered 1% volume growth in China in the fourth quarter. And then as the year went on, we saw primarily the Water business in China decelerate per Ed's comment. So it is still a tough market in China, but it looks like E&I is on the upswing, and we expect further improvement in the W&P business in water starting towards the tail line of the second quarter.

我想說的是，特別是在中國的銷量方面，他們確實做到了——全年銷量仍然下降，但隨著時間的推移，我們確實看到下降幅度較小，而且因業務而異。顯然，E&I 是第一個陷入中國經濟低迷的公司，他們第四季度在中國的銷量實際上實現了 1% 的成長。隨著時間的推移，根據艾德的評論，我們主要看到中國的水務業務減速。因此，中國市場仍然嚴峻，但看起來 E&I 正在上升，我們預計 W&P 水務業務從第二季末開始將進一步改善。

Your next question comes from Mike Leithead with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的麥克萊特黑德。

I just wanted to follow up on the inventory dynamics in W&P. I guess can you maybe help us better understand how the fourth quarter unfolded? Did your customers just stop buying at some point? Or just kind of what caught you still off guard with the declines there? And then around the January improvement, you just talked about Ed. I guess what do you make of it? Does it seem like those just delayed orders from year-end? Or do you think end demand is truly getting better there?

我只是想跟進W&P的庫存動態。我想你能幫助我們更了解第四季的進展嗎？您的客戶是否在某個時候停止購買了？或者只是是什麼讓您對那裡的下降感到措手不及？然後圍繞一月份的進步，你剛剛談到了艾德。我猜你覺得怎麼樣？看起來像是那些從年底開始推遲的訂單嗎？或者您認為那裡的最終需求真的在改善嗎？

Well, I think there was a couple of things. I think we got hit a little harder than we were expecting in the fourth quarter simply because it was most people's fiscal year-end, and they're aggressively trying to work down inventories. By the way, as DuPont did, we were aggressively doing it. We accelerated it, as you could see from our cash flow and our inventory position even more in the fourth quarter. So I think it was just trended a little more than we expected.

嗯，我認為有幾件事。我認為我們在第四季度受到的打擊比我們預期的要嚴重一些，因為這是大多數人的財政年度結束，他們正在積極努力降低庫存。順便說一句，正如杜邦公司所做的那樣，我們正在積極地這樣做。我們加快了這一速度，正如您從第四季度我們的現金流和庫存狀況中看到的那樣。所以我認為它的趨勢比我們預期的要多一些。

I'd also say I would add to that, remember that in W&P, specifically, 50% of our business goes through distribution. So they can easily tell you just shut it off for 2 or 3 months and don't ship to EMEA. And that's what we saw a little bit more of than we were expecting. But very interesting, as I said, it is a month. It's not a quarter yet, but most of those and those distributor orders turned around in the month of January. And again, it was pretty broad-based across the portfolio, ex a couple of these end markets that I talked about.

我還想補充一點，請記住，在 W&P，具體來說，我們 50% 的業務都經過分銷。因此，他們可以輕鬆地告訴您只需將其關閉 2 或 3 個月，並且不要運送到 EMEA。我們看到的情況比我們預期的要多一些。但很有趣，正如我所說，這是一個月。現在還不到一個季度，但其中大部分訂單和分銷商訂單在一月份就扭虧為盈。再說一次，它在整個投資組合中的基礎相當廣泛，除了我談到的幾個終端市場。

And specifically, by the way, in safety, the distribution orders sort of coming into January. Shelter were very heavy through distribution and we know we've bottomed that. We actually expect slight growth this quarter and that to build a little bit more as the year goes on. And then I mentioned the Water one already, that's 40% globally through distribution, and it was mostly our distributor customers that delayed orders, not our end customers. So that's kind of the dynamic, but very interesting to see this January thing now.

具體來說，順便說一句，為了安全起見，配送訂單將在 1 月開始。透過分配，庇護所的負擔非常重，我們知道我們已經觸底了。實際上，我們預計本季將出現小幅成長，隨著時間的推移，成長將會增加。然後我已經提到了水的問題，全球 40% 是透過分銷實現的，延遲訂單的主要是我們的經銷商客戶，而不是我們的最終客戶。這就是動態，但現在看到一月份的事情非常有趣。

Great. That's super helpful. And then maybe a question...

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後也許有一個問題...

And just, Mike, just an overall comment, we're 90% a short-cycle company. It can go down pretty quickly and it can go up pretty cool, but a lot of this is hangover from COVID excess inventory, people working it off. And so you can see the bounce back also.

麥克，只是總體評論，我們 90% 是一家短週期公司。它可以很快下降，也可以很酷地上升，但這很大程度上是由於新冠肺炎庫存過剩造成的，人們在努力擺脫庫存。所以你也可以看到反彈。

Well, makes a lot of sense. And then second, maybe just a quick question for Lori. Can you talk about your expected cash flow conversion in 2024. You gave us CapEx, but should we expect any material cash needs for restructuring, pension or just some other key items there?

嗯，很有道理。其次，也許只是問洛瑞一個簡單的問題。您能談談您在 2024 年的預期現金流轉換嗎？您給了我們資本支出，但我們是否應該預期重組、退休金或其他一些關鍵項目有任何實質現金需求？

Yes. So the pension should be roundly $50 million to $60 million of a cash funding. So no material difference from where it was in 2023. We had noted the CapEx, which also isn't a material change from 2023, we would expect to be, again, around the target of 90% conversion for 2024. We'll see how the timing of the volume lift unfolds, that could create a receivables headwind as you get into the back half of the year as you see that nice volume lift year-over-year.

是的。因此，退休金應該是大約 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元的現金資金。因此，與 2023 年的情況沒有重大差異。我們注意到資本支出，與 2023 年相比也沒有重大變化，我們預計將再次圍繞 2024 年 90% 轉換的目標。我們將看到銷量提升的時機如何展開，當你進入今年下半年時，當你看到銷量逐年大幅提升時，可能會產生應收帳款逆風。

So I expect it to deliver strong cash flow. We made a lot of progress on one of the areas that we really focused on with respect to inventory in 2023, and we're not going to give back that benefit that we saw and we work to hold on to those gains.

因此，我預計它將帶來強勁的現金流。我們在 2023 年庫存方面真正關注的領域之一取得了很大進展，我們不會回饋我們所看到的好處，我們會努力保持這些成果。

Your next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Josh Spector。

Just on the second half expectations. So obviously, visibility is pretty low. But I mean, at the high end of your guide, you're kind of projecting that you could see EBITDA up about 15%, maybe, in the second half. What needs to happen for that to play out? Kind of what's the expectation on the volume or restocking dynamic that would see you get to that end of the range?

只是對下半年的期望。顯然，能見度很低。但我的意思是，在您指南的高端，您預計下半年 EBITDA 可能會成長約 15%。需要做什麼才能發揮作用？您對達到該範圍末端的數量或補貨動態有何期望？

Yes. So by the way, just a few bullet points on kind of first half, second half ramp there. Obviously, the increased semi fab and PC utilization rates, remember, semi is a very high-margin business for us. So we see that coming back. And we've already started to see, as we just commented slightly, we're seeing improvement. It was about 2% in the quarter. So we clearly bottomed out there and we'll now lift.

是的。順便說一句，只是關於上半場、下半場坡道的一些要點。顯然，半晶圓廠和 PC 利用率的增加，請記住，半成品對我們來說是一項利潤率非常高的業務。所以我們看到這種情況又回來了。正如我們剛剛稍微評論的那樣，我們已經開始看到我們正在看到進步。本季約為 2%。所以我們顯然已經觸底，現在我們將提振。

Destock will be mostly complete in the second half of the year. The only ones that might slip into the fourth quarter and we've taken that into account as Biopharma and Kalrez. Although many in biopharma think that's going to lift by the inflection point at the middle of the year, we're a little more cautious than it's -- maybe more of a fourth quarter and then clearly improved factory absorption from the hits we've been taking there to keep inventory in line. And then we'll have more of the cost savings from the restructuring program.

去庫存將在下半年基本完成。唯一可能進入第四季度的公司是 Biopharma 和 Kalrez，我們已將其考慮在內。儘管生物製藥領域的許多人認為，這一情況將在今年年中的拐點處有所提升，但我們比實際情況要謹慎一些——可能會在第四季度左右，然後工廠的吸收率將從我們所遭受的打擊中明顯提高帶到那裡以保持庫存一致。然後我們將從重組計劃中節省更多成本。

So I'd say that's the big items that kind of build first half, second half. And obviously, just volume ramp in general because of destock ending.

所以我想說，這是建造上半場和下半場的大項目。顯然，由於去庫存的結束，銷量總體上有所增加。

Okay. That's helpful. And just to maybe follow-up, just more on the first half. Are there discrete items we should be thinking about first quarter to second quarter so that 10% lift you potentially see, I guess, is there a headwind baked in there in the first quarter because you're taking additional inventory actions (inaudible) or something else that actually absent a material demand improvement and improves earnings? Or is this more destocking volume driven (inaudible).

好的。這很有幫助。也許是後續行動，只是上半場的更多內容。我們是否應該考慮第一季到第二季的離散項目，以便您可能看到10% 的提升，我猜，第一季度是否存在逆風，因為您正在採取額外的庫存行動（聽不清楚）或其他什麼否則實際上沒有物質需求的改善並提高了收入？或者這是更多去庫存量驅動的（聽不清楚）。

Yes. So sequentially, a lot of it is volume driven. So we see about $150 million of revenue ramp first quarter to second quarter. That's primarily volume. We also see a little bit of a build in the cost savings program. So we had mentioned it will really kick in at the end of Q1. So you'll see some ramp as you head into Q2. Those are the biggest items. The largest improvement is going to be the volume increase though, first quarter to second quarter.

是的。因此，很多都是由數量驅動的。因此，我們預計第一季到第二季的營收將增加約 1.5 億美元。這主要是數量。我們也看到了成本節約計劃的一些建設。所以我們曾提到它將在第一季末真正啟動。因此，當您進入第二季度時，您會看到一些斜坡。這些是最大的物品。不過，最大的改進將是第一季到第二季的銷售成長。

Your next question comes from John Roberts with Mizuho.

你的下一個問題來自瑞穗銀行的約翰羅伯茲。

Just one for me. In Shelter Solutions now that the channel is destocked, are you expecting a normal seasonal sequential improvement or the low normal in that segment?

只給我一個。在 Shelter Solutions 中，既然通路已去庫存，您預計該細分市場會出現正常的季節性連續改善還是正常水平較低？

We would expect normal. So normally, 2Q and 3Q are the best quarters for Shelter within 1Q and 4Q being lower than those averages.

我們期望正常。因此，通常情況下，第二季度和第三季度是 Shelter 最好的季度，而第一季和第四季度則低於平均水平。

Your next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

You are a very valuable electronics business that is not being valued by the market. What are the options in your mind to unlock or have that value being realized?

你們是一家非常有價值的電子企業，但沒有被市場重視。您心中有哪些選項可以解鎖或實現該價值？

Well, David, I think, look, we've got to -- we're working our way through this destock, and I think the year is going to lift very nicely. I think we just have to be patient to see how it looks as we're kind of exiting 2024. And I think we haven't been in stability here with the destock going on in the short-cycle nature.

好吧，大衛，我想，聽著，我們必須——我們正在努力解決庫存問題，我認為今年將會非常好。我認為我們必須耐心等待，看看情況如何，因為我們即將退出 2024 年。而且我認為，由於庫存去化是短週期的，我們目前還不穩定。

But to your point, David, it's a phenomenal franchise. We're in the sweet spot of it. We got a lot of upside coming with the AI opportunity. All these new facilities, fabs we have built are mostly advanced chips, which plays even more to our strength. So when people can really see these numbers cranking again, as we're going through the second half of the year, we'll see how the company is valued.

但就你而言，大衛，這是一個非凡的特許經營權。我們正處於最佳狀態。人工智慧機會為我們帶來了很多好處。我們新建的這些設施、晶圓廠，大部分都是先進的晶片，這更能發揮我們的優勢。因此，當人們真正看到這些數字再次出現時，當我們進入下半年時，我們將看到該公司的估值如何。

Very good. And just on PFAS, Ed, what's your expectation for improvement on that issue this year?

非常好。就 PFAS 而言，Ed，您對今年該問題的改進有何期望？

Well, we're -- I think we're within days or a couple of weeks of the judge finally getting the whole water district thing down and all. I think it was just -- they're probably waiting. I think what's going on is they're just waiting to get one announcement from all the companies out. And I think 3M just last Friday, had their, kind of, I'll call it a preliminary hearing. So I think that's very, very close to being finalized here.

好吧，我想法官將在幾天或幾週內最終解決整個水區的問題。我認為他們可能只是在等待。我認為現在的情況是他們只是在等待所有公司發布一項公告。我想 3M 就在上週五舉行了他們的，我稱之為初步聽證會。所以我認為這已經非常非常接近最終確定了。

And then -- nothing will happen on the personal injury cases most likely this year. However, our kind of take is we like to settle these things before there's any trial, but they're going through picking some of the -- who would be the initial ones that would go to trial. I think there's 28 of those on the list right now and the judge and all will narrow that down to a smaller group. But I don't think that's a 2024 issue on that.

然後——今年最有可能發生的人身傷害案件不會有任何進展。然而，我們的看法是，我們希望在進行任何審判之前解決這些問題，但他們正在挑選一些人——誰將是最初接受審判的人。我認為目前名單上有 28 人，法官和所有人都會將其範圍縮小到一個較小的群體。但我認為這不是 2024 年的問題。

Your next question comes from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

So Ed, we have a lot of new fabs coming on. I mean just kind of looking at kind of high level, it looks like almost double digit coming on this year and then again in '25 and '26. I guess can you help us or remind us when you get those wins, like when you see that, how much of that cake is baked at this point? And then maybe any commentary on share wins or shifts that you might have seen on some of these fabs that are coming up?

所以艾德，我們有很多新的晶圓廠即將建成。我的意思是只是看看某種高水平，看起來今年幾乎達到兩位數，然後在 25 年和 26 年再次出現。我想當你獲得這些勝利時，你能幫助我們或提醒我們嗎？例如當你看到那個蛋糕時，此時烤了多少蛋糕？然後，您可能在其中一些即將建成的晶圓廠中看到過有關份額獲勝或轉移的任何評論嗎？

Yes, our sales process works. We do a lot of application engineering and development directly with the -- really, it's about 10 major customers in the semi side. So it's really the win we get there, where it's processed at a fab is somewhat irrelevant to us. Although we like the fact that these fabs are coming on because the world thinks there's a lot of demand coming over the next cycle here in the semi world, which there should be because everything needs a chip nowadays and more of its advanced chips.

是的，我們的銷售流程有效。我們直接與半導體領域的大約 10 個主要客戶進行大量應用工程和開發。因此，這確實是我們所取得的勝利，在晶圓廠進行加工與我們有些無關。儘管我們喜歡這些晶圓廠的建成，因為世界認為在半導體世界的下一個週期會有大量需求，這應該存在，因為現在一切都需要晶片以及更多的先進晶片。

So -- but our win rate is really at the design stage with these 10 large customers around the world. And again, where they make it doesn't really matter that much to us, but still a very good sign. And I'd say, overall, market share does not shift much in this business. There's a couple of key players, especially on the higher-end chips and market share is pretty steady across the board year in and year out.

所以——但我們的獲勝率實際上是在設計階段與全球這 10 個大客戶的合作。再說一次，他們在哪裡生產對我們來說並不那麼重要，但這仍然是一個非常好的跡象。我想說，總的來說，這個行業的市佔率變化不大。有幾個關鍵參與者，特別是在高階晶片領域，而且市佔率年復一年非常穩定。

Got it. Fair enough. And then on the Shelter Solutions side of the business, can you help us to think about what the utilization rates are now that it looks like you've kind of bottomed out in that business? And then how we should think about the incrementals on that as volume starts to really come back?

知道了。很公平。然後，在庇護所解決方案業務方面，您能否幫助我們考慮現在的利用率是多少，因為您在該業務中似乎已經觸底？那麼，隨著交易量開始真正回升，我們該如何考慮增量？

Yes. So we had mentioned we saw an improvement in volume as the year went on. The volumes in Shelter were kind of down about 4% in the fourth quarter, and we expect them to be slightly up in the first quarter and then build from there to about 4% by the time we close out the year. So the utilization rates will definitely improve.

是的。所以我們提到，隨著時間的推移，我們看到銷量有所改善。 Shelter 的銷量在第四季度下降了約 4%，我們預計第一季的銷量將略有上升，然後在年底時增加到 4% 左右。所以利用率一定會提高。

This is not a high fixed cost plant -- fixed cost business. So when we talked about the absorption headwinds that we saw throughout 2023, that was primarily in the E&I side, and then it started to kick in a little bit on the safety side with the heavy assets in that portfolio. So if there isn't a huge absorption headwind within Shelter, and -- but we will see some benefit from volume that would have a little bit of benefit absorption as the year goes on.

這不是一個高固定成本工廠——固定成本業務。因此，當我們談論 2023 年全年看到的吸收逆風時，主要是在 E&I 方面，然後開始在該投資組合中的重資產的安全方面發揮一點作用。因此，如果避難所內部沒有巨大的吸收逆風，而且——但我們會看到數量帶來的一些好處，隨著時間的推移，這將帶來一點好處吸收。

Your next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Is there any reason over the course of this recovery, why your business should decouple from broad electronics trends? I mean, are you guys less exposed to what's going on in AI and data center? Have you guys -- do you think you've lost share anywhere because a different technology is required in those applications. I mean it just seems like electronics right now is kind of a multispeed world. And I think I would have expected a little more out of you guys so far, but maybe just some comments on how kind of coupled you're going to be to that recovery?

在這次復甦的過程中，有什麼理由讓您的企業應該與廣泛的電子趨勢脫鉤嗎？我的意思是，你們對人工智慧和資料中心正在發生的事情了解較少嗎？你們是否認為自己在任何地方都失去了份額，因為這些應用程式需要不同的技術。我的意思是，現在的電子產品似乎是一個多速世界。我想到目前為止，我對你們的期望更高一些，但也許只是一些關於你們將如何配合復甦的評論？

I think we're very coupled to it because the because one of the big demand drivers next year is data center and that's a lot of advanced chip applications. I won't say the customer's name, but there's one that's been out there very steadily that is requiring a lot of advanced chips that is a key customer of ours. So that whole drive towards AI data center and the need for advanced chips plays right to the sweet spot of our portfolio.

我認為我們對此非常感興趣，因為明年的主要需求驅動因素之一是資料中心，其中有許多先進的晶片應用。我不會透露客戶的名字，但有一個一直非常穩定地存在，需要大量先進的晶片，這是我們的主要客戶。因此，人工智慧資料中心的整體發展和對先進晶片的需求正好符合我們產品組合的最佳點。

So no, we won't decouple at all. There's no area that's going to grow faster in the semi side that we will participate in. That truly is our sweet spot as we go forward. Remember, in a typical times, we've consistently outgrown the market to 300 basis points because of that dynamic.

所以不，我們根本不會脫鉤。在我們將參與的半程中，沒有任何區域會成長得更快。這確實是我們前進的最佳點。請記住，在典型時期，由於這種動態，我們的成長速度始終超過市場 300 個基點。

Yes. I think, Steve, too. So on semi, it's around a $2 billion business for us, about $700 million of that is data center. So it's a pretty large chunk. If you look at the results and the forecast that the OEMs are providing, it's oftentimes skewed by the price of the chip, which has no impact on our volumes and our revenues. So that's one thing that we made just to clarify to make sure that if you're seeing lift in some of the OEMs, it's probably right now more coming from price, especially on the memory side. Our portfolio is about 30% memory, 70% logics foundry from a disposition perspective as well.

是的。我想，史蒂夫也是。因此，在半成品方面，我們的業務約為 20 億美元，其中約 7 億美元是資料中心。所以這是一個相當大的塊。如果您查看原始設備製造商提供的結果和預測，您會發現它通常會受到晶片價格的影響，而這對我們的產量和收入沒有影響。因此，我們所做的一件事只是為了澄清，以確保如果您看到某些 OEM 廠商的成長，那麼現在可能更多來自價格，尤其是在記憶體方面。從配置角度來看，我們的產品組合大約 30% 是內存，70% 是邏輯代工廠。

Sorry. So you said $700 million of that as to what you can see clearly as being like data center-related customers?

對不起。那麼您所說的 7 億美元是您可以清楚看到的資料中心相關客戶嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

And how fast did that grow in like the fourth quarter? Or did it grow in the fourth quarter?

第四季的成長速度有多快？還是第四季有所成長？

Yes. So overall, semi volumes in the fourth quarter were down in the high single digits as some of the OEMs continue to destock. So that's one other piece, too, is they could still be producing and they're producing [channel] inventory versus buying new materials to add to their inventory. But if you compare our results that have been released year-to-date versus the peers that sell materials in those subsegments, they are in line.

是的。因此，總體而言，由於一些原始設備製造商繼續減少庫存，第四季度的半成品銷售出現高個位數下降。因此，這也是另一件事，他們仍然可以生產，並且他們正在生產[通路]庫存，而不是購買新材料來添加庫存。但如果你將我們今年迄今發布的業績與在這些細分市場銷售資料的同行進行比較，就會發現它們是一致的。

Your next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

I wanted to come back to water filtration in China. Do you have visibility into the underlying demand? Apparently, you do have destocking, but what data points are you tracking to understand how healthy the actual market is?

我想回到中國的水過濾領域。您了解潛在需求嗎？顯然，你們確實去庫存了，但你們追蹤哪些數據點來了解實際市場的健康程度？

Yes. So Aleksey, it's a great question. I would say true demand is down 3% or 4% negative. If you look at our direct customers we sell to over there, they had a little bit of destocking going on at their end. But by and large, when you look at their demand, again, they're in the 3% to 4%, some of our 5% down somewhere right in that range. But if you go to our distributor customers, they were down over 30%.

是的。阿列克謝，這是一個很好的問題。我想說的是，真實需求下降了 3% 或 4%。如果你看看我們在那裡銷售的直接客戶，他們最後正在進行一些庫存削減。但總的來說，當你再看看他們的需求時，你會發現他們的降幅在 3% 到 4% 之間，我們的一些降幅為 5%，就在這個範圍內。但如果你去找我們的經銷商客戶，你會發現他們的價格下降了 30% 以上。

And that's where we started to see orders come back through January for deliveries kind of in the May, June, July time frame. And as I mentioned earlier, the Water orders in January were up 13% and a big part of that was the China orders from the distributors. So the market is definitely down a little bit. But if we could just get all the destocking to come back, that's a huge swing for us even if the market for a little bit phased down.

這就是我們開始看到訂單在 1 月恢復的情況，並在 5 月、6 月、7 月的時間範圍內交貨。正如我之前提到的，1 月的水訂單增加了 13%，其中很大一部分是來自經銷商的中國訂單。所以市場一定會下跌一點。但如果我們能夠恢復所有去庫存，即使市場逐步放緩，這對我們來說也是一個巨大的波動。

So the inventory in China on Water will bottom in that kind of May, June time frame. And that's why I think we're starting to, obviously, then see these orders, at least preliminarily in January, come in kind of for that time period.

因此，中國的水庫存將在五月、六月的時間範圍內觸底。這就是為什麼我認為我們顯然會開始看到這些訂單，至少在一月是在那個時期出現的。

And just from a logistics perspective, Ed mentioned...

僅從物流的角度來看，艾德提到...

Go ahead, Lori.

繼續吧，洛瑞。

Maybe just real quick on the logistics perspective. So Ed had mentioned an expected bottoming of the distributor inventory levels in China in the May-June time frame. We ship from the U.S. to them primarily. There's about a 60-day lag between when they need the material at their facility versus when we ship it, and then we recognize the revenue when we ship it. So there will be a bit of a favorable impact from our perspective on revenue versus when it arrives at their facilities for use in China.

從物流的角度來看，也許真的很快。因此，Ed 提到中國經銷商庫存水準預計將在 5 月至 6 月期間觸底。我們主要從美國發貨給他們。他們的工廠需要材料的時間與我們發貨的時間之間大約有 60 天的滯後，然後我們在發貨時確認收入。因此，從我們的角度來看，與收入到達他們在中國的設施使用時相比，將會產生一些有利的影響。

So what is the sort of 2- to 3-year growth rate for the water business? Will it step down you think because China is slower or this is temporary?

那麼水務業務2-3年的成長率是多少呢？您認為它會下台是因為中國速度較慢還是只是暫時的？

Yes, we think it should still be in the mid-single-digit range. So we think that China is just a resolving of some higher inventory levels. If you look back at the volumes before we started to see a downturn globally, I'm going to talk about global volumes. Water was up 8% in full year 2022. And then in the first half, it was up 4% in Q1 and 9% in Q2, and then we started to see the downturn in Q3. So we think it's a temporary dislocation. There's still a lot of confidence and opportunity for outsized growth versus GDP in the water business.

是的，我們認為它應該仍處於中個位數範圍內。所以我們認為中國只是解決了一些較高的庫存水準。如果您回顧一下全球經濟開始衰退之前的銷量，我將談論全球銷售。 2022 年全年水費上漲了 8%。然後在上半年，第一季上漲了 4%，第二季上漲了 9%，然後我們開始看到第三季的下滑。所以我們認為這是暫時的混亂。相對於國內生產毛額而言，水務業仍有很大的信心和機會實現超額成長。

Your next question comes from Patrick Cunningham with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Patrick Cunningham。

I'm just curious on your expectations in the retained businesses in the corporate segment into the year, and given maybe we're starting to see a challenging auto and EV backdrop into the first half of the year.

我只是好奇您對今年企業部門保留業務的期望，因為我們可能開始看到今年上半年汽車和電動車領域充滿挑戰的背景。

Yes. So 2023 was very favorable for the auto industry kind of up in that high single-digit range, and we would outperform that in the EV space just by about 25% to 30% of our portfolio is now EV. On a full year basis, though, for 2024, we do see it about flat from a volume perspective in line with where auto builds are. So obviously, China is going to slow down a bit in 2024 off of a really strong 2023, especially tail end of 2023.

是的。因此，2023 年對汽車產業非常有利，在高個位數範圍內成長，我們在電動車領域的表現將比電動車領域高出約25% 至30%，目前我們的投資組合中有25% 至30% 是電動車。不過，從全年來看，2024 年的銷量確實與汽車製造量持平。顯然，在 2023 年非常強勁的情況下，尤其是 2023 年末，中國的經濟成長將在 2024 年略有放緩。

But longer term, we're still very confident in the EV expansion opportunity and the pace of the EV growth, and we have a really nice position to continue to benefit from that, not only in the corporate retained businesses primarily with adhesives, but also within the W&P portfolio of Nomex, we've got a really nice opportunity on the e-motor side of the house. We could be using Nomex [as an insulator].

但從長遠來看，我們仍然對電動車的擴張機會和電動車的成長速度充滿信心，而且我們處於非常好的位置，可以繼續從中受益，不僅在公司保留的主要是黏合劑的業務中，而且在 Nomex 的 W&P 產品組合中，我們在馬達方面獲得了非常好的機會。我們可以使用 Nomex [作為絕緣體]。

Got it. Very helpful. And then just on Spectrum, how is it performing relative to expectations? And has it been hit by any residual destocking or deterioration in primary demand?

知道了。很有幫助。然後就 Spectrum 而言，它的表現與預期相比如何？它是否受到任何剩餘的去庫存或初級需求惡化的打擊？

Yes. It's in line with our expectations. It's ramping nicely with the new customer win that we highlighted when we acquired the business that's going very well. We've actually integrated the business within the company and combined it with our Liveo Healthcare business to further take advantage of those commercial synergies that continues to be a nice opportunity for us.

是的。這符合我們的預期。隨著我們在收購進展順利的業務時強調的新客戶的贏得，它的發展勢頭良好。實際上，我們已經整合了公司內部的業務，並將其與我們的 Liveo Healthcare 業務相結合，以進一步利用這些商業協同效應，這對我們來說仍然是一個很好的機會。

Your next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

First, can you just clarify on the full year remarks. When you talk about sales and profit growth in the back half, are you talking 3Q and 4Q? Or maybe not 3Q, but definitely 4Q?

首先，您能澄清一下全年的言論嗎？當你談論下半年的銷售和利潤成長時，你是在談論第三季和第四季嗎？或者也許不是 3Q，但肯定是 4Q？

It starts in 3Q. It's greater in 4Q from a year-over-year perspective.

從第三季開始。從年比角度來看，第四季的情況更大。

Okay. And then, Ed, can I ask you the destocking is what it is and it's going to be what it's going to be. But thereafter, in managing these businesses and investing in them and presenting them to the investment community, how do you think about shipments versus demand and making sure that we don't get into another situation where the supply chain lines up with more products than it will ultimately want? Or is that not something that you can really have the visibility on to control and that, too, will just be what it's going to be?

好的。然後，艾德，我可以問你，去庫存的情況是怎麼樣的，會是怎樣的嗎？但此後，在管理這些業務、投資它們並向投資界展示它們時，您如何考慮出貨量與需求之間的關係，並確保我們不會陷入供應鏈上的產品數量多於實際數量的另一種情況最終會想要嗎？或者說，這不是你真正可以透過可見性來控制的東西，而且它也會是這樣的嗎？

Vincent, only twice in my life, I think, 26 years now doing this, has this happened. So it's a very rare event. I mean it was obviously -- look, you know the semi stores, just they overshot so much on inventory. But a lot of this was COVID-driven, the craziness of the supply chain. It's just not something that would normally happen. It really is kind of one of those once in an opportunities or dislocations let me say it that way.

文森特，我想，26 年以來，我一生中只發生過兩次這樣的事。所以這是一個非常罕見的事件。我的意思是，這顯然是——看，你知道半成品商店，只是他們的庫存過多。但這在很大程度上是由新冠疫情驅動的，即供應鏈的瘋狂。這不是通常會發生的事情。讓我這樣說吧，這確實是一種機會或混亂。

And by the way, interestingly, it goes down rapidly in a short cycle and can go up rapidly. It happened -- by the way, the little bit of '08, '09 was destocking. It was mostly a true recession where demand was down, but I'd say about 1/3 of that then turned into destocking because of the situation, and so it got worse quicker than people were expecting, but that recovered also fairly quick.

而且順便說一句，有趣的是，它可以在短週期內快速下降，也可以快速上升。事情確實發生了——順便說一下，08、09 年的一點點就是去庫存。這主要是一場真正的經濟衰退，需求下降，但我想說，由於這種情況，其中大約 1/3 變成了去庫存，所以情況比人們預期的更快惡化，但恢復也相當快。

So I don't -- I just don't see something like this happening again. And we are almost, as I said, almost all a short-cycle business. So we really saw it across a lot of the portfolio. And normal times, you're just not going to overshoot. Some people overshoot once in a while, but not to the extent of what we saw here the severity of it.

所以我不——我只是不認為類似的事情再次發生。正如我所說，我們幾乎都是短週期業務。所以我們確實在許多產品組合中都看到了這一點。正常情況下，你不會超調。有些人偶爾會過度使用，但還沒有達到我們在這裡看到的嚴重程度。

Your next question comes from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Ed, you indicated that, obviously, you made a proactive decision to work down your inventories. And you've mentioned a couple of times the negative impact effect of factory absorption in 4Q and in '23. I was wondering if you could size that for us? And obviously, the expectation is that, that's not necessarily going to continue in '24, so that should be a nice tailwind for you?

艾德，您表示，顯然您主動決定減少庫存。您多次提到第四季和 23 年工廠吸收的負面影響。我想知道你能否幫我們確定尺寸？顯然，我們的預期是，這種情況不一定會在 24 年繼續下去，所以這對你來說應該是一個很好的順風車？

Yes, Frank, we had a little north of $200 million of absorption headwinds in 2023. Most of that in E&I did kick in a little bit towards the tail end of the year in 2023 for W&P and that will continue in Q1 as well. So we do see absorption headwinds in Q1.

是的，弗蘭克，我們在 2023 年遇到了略高於 2 億美元的吸收逆風。E&I 中的大部分確實在 2023 年年底對 W&P 產生了一些影響，並且這種情況也將在第一季繼續。因此，我們確實在第一季看到了吸收阻力。

Right now, given that our full year midpoint guide of $12.1 billion is about flat with this year. On a year-over-year basis, we don't really see material absorption tailwinds because volumes aren't materially improving. There will be improvement first half, second half because the volume story is different first half, second half. But in the guide that we have provided, we didn't take in material benefits. Obviously, if that plays out [potentially], that could be a change -- a positive change. But initially, that's where we sit.

目前，我們的全年中點指引值為 121 億美元，與今年基本持平。與去年同期相比，我們並沒有真正看到材料吸收的順風，因為銷量沒有實質改善。前半部、後半部會有進步，因為前半部、後半部的故事不同。但在我們提供的指南中，我們並沒有獲取物質利益。顯然，如果這種情況（可能）發生，那可能是一個變化——一個積極的變化。但最初，這就是我們坐的地方。

Okay. Got you. So perhaps there's some conservatism built in there, which I kind of got the sense when you're talking about price cost for '24 being neutral, I would assume that you saw some benefits from price cost in the fourth quarter, could you size that for us?

好的。明白你了。因此，也許其中存在一些保守主義，當您談論 24 年的價格成本保持中性時，我有點感覺到，我假設您在第四季度看到了價格成本的一些好處，您能否衡量一下這一點為了我們？

Yes. We did see benefit in the fourth quarter in the $50 million to $75 million range. We do see some further tailwinds year-over-year in Q1, just really from that carryover benefit of the [raws] that we were buying that were stuck in inventory that are now coming out. But right now, our view is that we would still see those benefits about $100 million on a full year basis in '24, but we expect about a 1% price give back with a lot of it being in the Shelter business as we had kind of been flagging all along. That's where we got the most price to begin with in the 2022, 2023 time frame.

是的。我們確實在第四季度看到了 5000 萬至 7500 萬美元的收益。我們確實在第一季看到了一些與去年同期相比進一步的有利因素，這實際上是來自我們購買的[原材料]的結轉效益，這些原材料被困在庫存中，而這些庫存現在正在出爐。但目前，我們的觀點是，我們仍然會在 24 年全年看到約 1 億美元的收益，但我們預計大約有 1% 的價格回饋，其中很大一部分來自庇護所業務，就像我們之前那樣一直以來都在萎靡不振。這是我們在 2022 年、2023 年時間範圍內獲得最高價格的地方。

Your next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Arun Viswanathan。

Obviously, a lot of the questions have been answered. But just wanted to reconfirm, so I know that you made the statement that your volumes could snap back quickly. But is that -- are you at all concerned with that happening now with maybe China growing at a slightly lower structural growth rate going forward? Maybe you can just comment on what you're hearing is out of China.

顯然，很多問題都得到了解答。但只是想再次確認，所以我知道您曾說過您的銷售可能會迅速回升。但是，您是否擔心現在發生的情況，即中國未來的結構性成長率可能會略低？也許你可以就你所聽到的來自中國的內容發表評論。

Yes. I mean even if China potentially is at a lower structural growth rate year-over-year, it's coming off a pretty (inaudible). So full year volumes in China were down in the mid-teens. And so it's not a high hurdle to jump off of as you head into 2024 to deliver growth. We still have a lot of confidence longer term in those markets that are highly rooted in China, especially on the Electronics side and on the Water side, we expect improvement.

是的。我的意思是，即使中國的結構性成長率可能較低，但其表現卻相當不錯（聽不清楚）。因此，中國全年的銷量下降了十幾歲。因此，在進入 2024 年實現成長時，這並不是一個需要跨越的高障礙。從長遠來看，我們對那些高度紮根於中國的市場仍然充滿信心，特別是在電子方面和水務方面，我們預計會有所改善。

Yes, just turning to the electronics side. I don't think we're being overly aggressive. We've talked to our large customers. When you look at the fab utilizations, we're basically going from the low 70s we set to the low 80s. In really good times, they run in the '90s. So we probably still have more upside that would kick in, in that part of the business even going into 2025. It's not all -- we're not assuming it all snaps back in 2024 to where it had been running.

是的，只是轉向電子方面。我不認為我們過於激進。我們已經與我們的大客戶進行了交談。當你觀察晶圓廠的利用率時，我們基本上從我們設定的 70 多歲低點上升到 80 多位低位。在真正美好的時代，他們在 90 年代運行。因此，即使到 2025 年，我們的這部分業務可能仍然有更多的上行空間。這還不是全部——我們並不假設它會在 2024 年恢復到原來的運行狀態。

Right. And then given that we have experienced a fair amount of volatility here in cyclicality, one of the transformation kind of strategies was to reduce that peak to trough cyclicality. Do you feel still the same way about the current portfolio as far as lowering that cyclicality post transfer of assets to Water or other businesses that would qualify for disposition at this point?

正確的。鑑於我們在周期性方面經歷了相當大的波動，轉型策略之一就是減少從高峰到低谷的周期性。您對目前的投資組合是否仍然有同樣的看法，即在將資產轉移給水務公司或其他目前有資格處置的企業後降低週期性？

No, no. I totally feel it, in normal times, it will be more consistent portfolio and unusual time here with the destock and the inventory build from COVID and all short cycle, but now these are good secular businesses. We've got good market position. So we feel good about where we're at. Just got to get through this period and start lifting.

不，不。我完全感覺到，在正常情況下，這將是一個更一致的投資組合和不尋常的時期，因為新冠疫情和所有短週期都會減少庫存和增加庫存，但現在這些都是很好的長期業務。我們擁有良好的市場地位。所以我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。剛度過這個時期並開始舉重。

Your next question comes from Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的史蒂夫·伯恩。

Your businesses within W&P heavily rely on distributors. I'm curious how much visibility do you have, not just on your own products in inventory at these distributors, but competitor products. And the reason I asked is I'm just wondering whether or not you're just seeing the potential for a shift to competitor products, perhaps in Water in China. Anything that you're seeing there that is a concern on the competitive front?

您在 W&P 內的業務嚴重依賴經銷商。我很好奇你們有多少可見度，不僅是這些經銷商庫存中您自己的產品，還有競爭對手的產品。我問這個問題的原因是我只是想知道您是否正在看到轉向競爭對手產品的潛力，也許是在中國的水務領域。您在競爭方面看到了什麼令人擔憂的事情嗎？

No, Steve. And we -- by the way, we're tracking -- because of sources, we're tracking way closer with our distributors. The good news is our distributors in China, there's a handful of really big ones. So if we can get our arms around that. We've asked the competitive issue, and we're very close to them. I don't see any issues there at all.

不，史蒂夫。順便說一句，我們正在追蹤——由於來源，我們正在與我們的分銷商更加密切地追蹤。好消息是我們在中國的經銷商，有一些非常大的經銷商。所以如果我們能解決這個問題的話。我們已經詢問了競爭問題，並且我們與他們非常接近。我根本沒有看到任何問題。

Okay. And how would you look at your businesses and highlight any opportunities for a new technology or a new application of your products that could really drive growth? Anything that you would highlight an example would be like Water moving into lithium extraction. Do you see any meaningful (inaudible)?

好的。您如何看待您的業務並強調任何能夠真正推動成長的新技術或產品新應用的機會？任何你想強調的例子都會像水進入鋰提取領域一樣。您看到任何有意義的內容嗎（聽不清楚）？

Yes, it's -- see, I would give you two and you just said the one. The lithium opportunity could be substantial for us because that needs a ton of filtration as you guys know. And the other, I would just say big trend out there that we've already talked to, but has a real good opportunity for us because it's in our sweet spot is the whole AI thing. I would say they would be the two big ones.

是的，這是——看，我會給你兩個，而你剛剛說了一個。鋰的機會對我們來說可能是巨大的，因為正如你們所知，這需要大量的過濾。另一方面，我只想說我們已經討論過的大趨勢，但對我們來說確實是一個很好的機會，因為整個人工智慧正是我們的最佳選擇。我想說他們將是兩個大人物。

Our final question comes from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的最後一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Ed, when you think about the earnings power of DuPont, when you look at the second half of '24, the run rate EBITDA is going to be much higher than the first half. So when we think about growing into '25 and beyond, so we take that second half run rate and then where do you think the earnings power is longer term, '26, '27 in terms of EBITDA?

Ed，當你考慮到杜邦公司的獲利能力時，當你看看 24 年下半年時，EBITDA 運作率將比上半年高得多。因此，當我們考慮成長到 25 年及以後時，我們採用下半年的運行率，然後您認為從 EBITDA 角度來看，「26 年」、「27 年」的長期盈利能力在哪裡？

Yes. I mean we, obviously, exited a higher margin than where we started the year. So our current expectations is we would exit butting up against 26% EBITDA margin in the fourth quarter. We've always said that we think the EBITDA margin profile for the total company should be in that 27%, 28% range, and we don't have a change to that with E&I being in the low 30s and W&P in the kind of mid-20s.

是的。我的意思是，顯然我們的利潤率比年初更高。因此，我們目前的預期是，第四季 EBITDA 利潤率將達到 26%。我們一直說，我們認為整個公司的 EBITDA 利潤率應該在 27% 到 28% 的範圍內，而且我們對此沒有改變，E&I 處於 30 多歲左右，W&P 處於 30% 左右的水平。20 多歲。

So we exit the year, as I had mentioned, butting up against 26% kind of in the low $800 million range. If you look back to our peak earnings in late 2022, they were more in that $850 million range, and they didn't have Spectrum in them. There's still a clearly opportunity for us to continue to expand beyond that run rate that we'll expect to see at the end of this year.

因此，正如我所提到的，今年我們的收益將達到 26%，在 8 億美元的低水平範圍內。如果你回顧我們 2022 年底的高峰收入，他們的收入更多在 8.5 億美元的範圍內，而且他們沒有 Spectrum。我們仍然有明顯的機會繼續擴張，超越我們預計在今年年底看到的運行速度。

And maybe just to add one for the longer term, and again, stabilized times, half this portfolio should outgrow GDP and the other half should grow with GDP, just to give you a feel and that would be the magnitude. One of the things, as I mentioned a minute ago, still has to come back even more in 2025 as the semi industry and the utilization rates still decline from where we would exit '24.

也許只是為了長期增加一個，再說一次，在穩定的時期，這個投資組合的一半應該超過 GDP 的增長，另一半應該隨著 GDP 的增長而增長，只是為了給你一種感覺，這就是規模。正如我一分鐘前提到的，其中一件事在 2025 年仍需進一步恢復，因為半成品行業和利用率仍較 24 年退出時有所下降。

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Chris Mecray for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在將把電話轉回給克里斯·麥克雷，請他發表結束語。

Well, thank you all for joining the call. For your reference, a copy of the transcript will be posted on our website as usual. This concludes our call. Thank you.

好的，謝謝大家加入通話。為了供您參考，成績單副本將照常發佈在我們的網站上。我們的通話到此結束。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。