杜邦 (DD) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

杜邦發布了 2023 年第一季度的財務業績,報告稱淨銷售額下降了 8%。這種減少歸因於消費電子產品和建築業的銷量壓力,該公司的電子產品組合經歷了十幾歲的銷量下降。這影響了整體遞減。

儘管如此,杜邦還是宣布了收購 Spectrum 的最終協議,Spectrum 是醫療終端市場關鍵組件和設備的領先製造商。此次收購將耗資 17.5 億美元。該公司預計,由於長期趨勢,其水和安全產品組合將持續走強。此外,它預計其醫療包裝業務和電動汽車領域都會出現增長。

杜邦的長期利潤率前景保持在 27-28%。這歸因於許多有利因素,包括 E&I 的銷量恢復、價格/成本效益和有利的組合提升。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the DuPont First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call.

    女士們,先生們,感謝你們的支持,歡迎來到杜邦 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Chris Mecray, head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Chris Mecray。請繼續。

  • Christopher H. Mecray - VP of IR

    Christopher H. Mecray - VP of IR

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us for DuPont's First Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me today are Ed Breen, Chief Executive Officer; and Lori Koch, Chief Financial Officer. We have prepared slides to supplement our remarks, which are posted on DuPont's website under the Investor Relations tab and through the webcast link. Please read the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the slides.

    早上好,感謝您加入我們參加杜邦 2023 年第一季度財務業績電話會議。今天加入我的是首席執行官 Ed Breen;和首席財務官 Lori Koch。我們準備了幻燈片來補充我們的評論,這些幻燈片發佈在杜邦網站的“投資者關係”選項卡下並通過網絡廣播鏈接發布。請閱讀幻燈片中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。

  • During this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations or predictions about the future. Because these statements are based on current assumptions and factors that involve risks and uncertainties, our actual performance and results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements.

    在此次電話會議中,我們將就我們對未來的期望或預測做出前瞻性陳述。由於這些陳述基於當前的假設和因素,涉及風險和不確定性,我們的實際業績和結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。

  • Our Form 10-K, as updated by our current and periodic reports, includes detailed discussion of principal risks and uncertainties, which may cause such differences.

    我們的 10-K 表格由我們的當前和定期報告更新,包括對可能導致此類差異的主要風險和不確定性的詳細討論。

  • Unless otherwise specified, all historical financial measures presented today exclude significant items. We will also refer to other non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure included in our press release and presentation materials and have been posted to DuPont's Investor Relations website.

    除非另有說明,否則今天提出的所有歷史財務指標均不包括重要項目。我們還將參考其他非 GAAP 指標。與我們的新聞稿和演示材料中包含的最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬,並已發佈到杜邦的投資者關係網站。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Ed.

    我現在將電話轉給埃德。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining our First Quarter 2023 Financial Review. This morning, we announced quarterly results with operating EBITDA in line and revenue and adjusted EPS slightly better than our previously communicated guidance. This performance reflects our team's continued strong execution while facing short-term volume pressure in select consumer-driven short-cycle end markets, including electronics and construction.

    早上好,感謝您加入我們的 2023 年第一季度財務回顧。今天早上,我們公佈了季度業績,其中運營 EBITDA 和收入以及調整後的每股收益略好於我們之前傳達的指導。這一業績反映了我們團隊在面對特定的消費者驅動的短週期終端市場(包括電子和建築)的短期銷量壓力時繼續保持強勁的執行力。

  • First quarter organic revenue declined 3% versus the year ago period, despite double-digit declines from our electronics lines of business of interconnect solutions and semiconductor technologies. Mitigating the weakness in electronics and construction markets was ongoing broad demand strength in areas, including water, automotive, aerospace and health care, along with the carryover benefit of pricing actions taken last year to offset inflationary pressure.

    儘管我們的互連解決方案和半導體技術電子業務線出現兩位數的下滑,但第一季度的有機收入與去年同期相比下降了 3%。緩解電子和建築市場疲軟的是水、汽車、航空航天和醫療保健等領域的持續廣泛需求強勁,以及去年為抵消通脹壓力而採取的定價行動的結轉收益。

  • Adjusted EPS was up 2% as we continue to realize benefits from our ongoing capital allocation strategy. As expected, operating EBITDA declined versus the year ago period driven by lower volumes.

    調整後的每股收益增長了 2%,因為我們繼續從我們正在進行的資本配置戰略中獲益。正如預期的那樣,由於銷量下降,營業 EBITDA 與去年同期相比有所下降。

  • Given the near-term slowdown in short-cycle end markets, we continue to be proactive in taking actions within our control to minimize volume pressure while also focusing on optimizing cash flow generation. As a result, we expect to continue to show the resiliency of the new DuPont portfolio and expect that our financial results will generate returns commensurate with top tier multi-industrial assets.

    鑑於短週期終端市場近期放緩,我們將繼續積極採取我們控制範圍內的行動,以盡量減少銷量壓力,同時也專注於優化現金流生成。因此,我們預計將繼續展示新杜邦投資組合的彈性,並預計我們的財務業績將產生與頂級多行業資產相稱的回報。

  • In addition to our commitment to generating value through delivery of consistent operating performance, we also continue to focus on accretive and value-added capital deployment. This morning, we announced a definitive agreement to acquire Spectrum, a leading manufacturer of critical components and devices for medical end markets for $1.75 billion or $1.72 billion after certain tax attributes. This deal fits with our strategy to focus on the industrial technologies growth pillar expanding our offerings into the fast-growing health care market.

    除了我們承諾通過提供一致的經營業績來創造價值外,我們還繼續專注於增值和增值資本部署。今天上午,我們宣布了一項最終協議,以 17.5 億美元或扣除某些稅項後的 17.2 億美元收購 Spectrum,這是一家領先的醫療終端市場關鍵組件和設備製造商。這筆交易符合我們專注於工業技術增長支柱的戰略,將我們的產品擴展到快速增長的醫療保健市場。

  • Turning to Slide 4. We have had our eye on Spectrum, which is a current DuPont customer for a long time, and our team is extremely excited for this opportunity. Spectrum is a recognized leader in advanced manufacturing of specialty medical devices and components, serving 22 of the top 26 medical device OEMs with relationships that date back decades and a strategic focus on fast-growing therapeutic devices and components. Their business is predominantly North American focused and has demonstrated consistent growth over many years. We expect them to generate revenues of about $500 million in 2023.

    轉到幻燈片 4。我們一直關注 Spectrum,它是杜邦目前的長期客戶,我們的團隊對這個機會感到非常興奮。 Spectrum 是專業醫療設備和組件先進製造領域公認的領導者,為前 26 家醫療設備原始設備製造商中的 22 家提供服務,其關係可追溯到數十年前,戰略重點是快速增長的治療設備和組件。他們的業務主要集中在北美,多年來一直保持穩定增長。我們預計他們將在 2023 年產生約 5 億美元的收入。

  • As you can see on Slide 5, DuPont's existing health care portfolio is quite strong today. As a reminder, our current health care portfolio is comprised of Liveo medical device and biopharma consumables business, which is a key part of the Industrial Solutions line of business and our Tyvek Healthcare Packaging business reported through Safety Solutions. Together, these businesses represent $800 million of total revenue and grow at rates exceeding the company average and well above GDP at solid rates of profitability. The Spectrum business fits nicely with our existing Liveo franchise and will complement our established position in biopharma consumables, bringing world-class manufacturing capabilities and deep OEM customer relationships.

    正如您在幻燈片 5 中看到的那樣,杜邦現有的醫療保健產品組合如今非常強大。提醒一下,我們目前的醫療保健產品組合包括 Liveo 醫療設備和生物製藥耗材業務,這是工業解決方案業務線的關鍵部分,我們的 Tyvek 醫療保健包裝業務通過安全解決方案報告。這些業務加在一起代表了 8 億美元的總收入,並且以超過公司平均水平的速度增長,並且以穩定的盈利率遠高於 GDP。 Spectrum 業務非常適合我們現有的 Liveo 特許經營權,並將補充我們在生物製藥耗材領域的既定地位,帶來世界一流的製造能力和深厚的 OEM 客戶關係。

  • On Slide 6, you can see the addition of Spectrum to our portfolio is impactful and the combined presence in health care will now represent approximately 10% of DuPont's total sales. The transaction adds higher growth, while further reducing cyclicality in the portfolio. Also worth noting the transaction significantly increases the total addressable market we serve within health care devices. These businesses are expected to grow at high single-digit rates over time and even faster in 2023 due to specific business wins in place.

    在幻燈片 6 上,您可以看到將 Spectrum 添加到我們的產品組合中是有影響的,醫療保健領域的合併業務現在將佔杜邦總銷售額的大約 10%。該交易增加了更高的增長,同時進一步降低了投資組合的周期性。同樣值得注意的是,該交易顯著增加了我們在醫療保健設備中服務的總目標市場。隨著時間的推移,這些業務預計將以高個位數的速度增長,由於特定業務的成功,到 2023 年甚至會更快。

  • This transaction has compelling strategic rationale, as you can see on Slide 7. The Spectrum business expands DuPont's growth strategy of customer-centered innovation and strengthen our existing stable position in fast-growing health care end markets. We are excited by the complementary fit and, specifically, our ability to leverage the strengths from each side to generate incremental growth opportunities on top of already growing core markets.

    正如您在幻燈片 7 中看到的那樣,這項交易具有令人信服的戰略依據。Spectrum 業務擴展了杜邦以客戶為中心的創新增長戰略,並加強了我們在快速增長的醫療保健終端市場中現有的穩定地位。我們對互補性感到興奮,特別是我們能夠利用雙方的優勢在已經增長的核心市場之上創造增量增長機會。

  • As an example of this on the biopharma side, DuPont Liveo has extensive direct relationships with leading OEMs in the biopharma space and has a proven design and build co-development model. The added advanced manufacturing capabilities enabled by Spectrum will expand its product and capability set to meet stringent customer specifications essentially adding a new pipeline for the Spectrum side by adding new customer relationships.

    作為生物製藥方面的一個例子,杜邦 Liveo 與生物製藥領域的領先原始設備製造商建立了廣泛的直接關係,並擁有經過驗證的設計和構建共同開發模型。 Spectrum 增加的先進製造能力將擴展其產品和能力集,以滿足嚴格的客戶規範,本質上是通過增加新的客戶關係為 Spectrum 方面增加新的管道。

  • On the medical device side, as an example, Spectrum has extensive direct relationships with leading OEMs, including with 22 of the top 26 players. Adding Liveo's silicone offerings and DuPont's material science technology will enhance Spectrum's depth of cooperation with customers and expand its product offerings. Spectrum is expected to accelerate top line growth for Industrial Solutions and DuPont as a whole.

    例如,在醫療設備方面,Spectrum 與領先的原始設備製造商有著廣泛的直接關係,其中包括前 26 家廠商中的 22 家。添加 Liveo 的有機矽產品和杜邦的材料科學技術將加強 Spectrum 與客戶的合作深度並擴大其產品範圍。 Spectrum 有望加速工業解決方案和整個杜邦的收入增長。

  • Regarding deal terms, the net purchase price of $1.72 billion after certain tax adjustments represents a 15.6% EBITDA multiple based on 2023 estimates or 13.2x after moderate expected cost synergies of $20 million. In line with our return hurdles for capital deployment, the acquisition is expected to deliver high single-digit ROIC by year 5, excluding revenue synergies that we described. We believe the combined growth opportunities, I just mentioned, can add incremental value to the business combination. We expect this transaction will close by the end of the third quarter this year, and we do not anticipate significant regulatory hurdles. We plan to finance the transaction with cash on hand.

    關於交易條款,經過某些稅收調整後的淨收購價為 17.2 億美元,根據 2023 年的估計,EBITDA 倍數為 15.6%,或在 2000 萬美元的適度預期成本協同效應後為 13.2 倍。根據我們對資本部署的回報障礙,此次收購預計將在第 5 年實現高個位數的 ROIC,不包括我們描述的收入協同效應。我們相信,我剛才提到的合併增長機會可以為企業合併增加增量價值。我們預計該交易將在今年第三季度末完成,預計不會出現重大監管障礙。我們計劃用手頭現金為交易融資。

  • Given a lot of moving parts on our capital allocation over the last 6 months, let's briefly review our status on Slide 8. From closing of the M&M sale in November through today, we have deployment actions and plans in place to account for the full $11 billion of gross cash received from the sale through a disciplined capital allocation process. In the fourth quarter of last year, we announced a $5 billion share repurchase authorization and took actions to deleverage our balance sheet by paying down $2.5 billion in senior notes and reducing commercial paper from $1.3 billion to 0 at year-end and remaining undrawn through the first quarter.

    鑑於過去 6 個月我們的資本分配有很多變化,讓我們簡要回顧一下我們在幻燈片 8 上的狀態。從 11 月 M&M 銷售結束到今天,我們已經制定了部署行動和計劃來解釋全部 11 美元通過嚴格的資本分配流程從出售中獲得的現金總額為 10 億美元。去年第四季度,我們宣布了一項 50 億美元的股票回購授權,並採取行動通過償還 25 億美元的優先票據並在年底將商業票據從 13 億美元減少到 0 並通過第一季度。

  • Regarding share repurchases, we still expect to complete the $3.25 billion accelerated share repurchase program, launched last November, in the third quarter of this year and remain committed to completing the remaining $2 billion of authorization as an ASR shortly thereafter.

    關於股票回購,我們仍預計將在今年第三季度完成去年 11 月啟動的 32.5 億美元加速股票回購計劃,並繼續致力於在此後不久完成剩餘的 20 億美元 ASR 授權。

  • Today's announcement to acquire Spectrum with cash on hand essentially completes the deployment of any remaining excess cash from the M&M transaction. In terms of additional cash sources, I will note that we are progressing with our plans to sell the Delrin business and continue to expect the planned transaction to close by year-end 2023.

    今天宣布用手頭現金收購 Spectrum 的消息基本上完成了 M&M 交易中剩餘的多餘現金的部署。在額外的現金來源方面,我會注意到我們正在推進出售 Delrin 業務的計劃,並繼續預計計劃中的交易將在 2023 年底前完成。

  • Our current capitalization remains very sound with no significant debt maturities until November 2025. Looking through all currently communicated deployment actions, inclusive of the Delrin sale, we expect net leverage to finish the year around 2x. We are comfortable with that leverage point, which is more in line with our multi-industrial peers, and we expect to remain at that level as an equilibrium target going forward.

    我們目前的資本狀況仍然非常穩健,在 2025 年 11 月之前沒有重大債務到期。縱觀目前傳達的所有部署行動,包括出售 Delrin,我們預計今年年底的淨槓桿率將達到 2 倍左右。我們對這個槓桿點感到滿意,這更符合我們的多行業同行,我們預計將保持在該水平作為未來的均衡目標。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Lori to review our financial performance and outlook.

    有了這個,讓我把它交給 Lori 來審查我們的財務業績和前景。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Ed, and good morning. Our first quarter financial results reflect our team's ongoing strong focus on execution and operational excellence as we began 2023. In a pressured volume environment within consumer electronics and construction, we are focused on the operational levers within our control to drive solid operating EBITDA and minimize margin impact despite volume decrements in some of our most profitable lines of business.

    謝謝,埃德,早上好。我們的第一季度財務業績反映了我們團隊在 2023 年開始時對執行和卓越運營的持續高度關注。在消費電子產品和建築業的壓力環境中,我們專注於我們控制範圍內的運營槓桿,以推動穩健的運營 EBITDA 並最大限度地降低利潤率儘管我們一些最賺錢的業務線的銷量有所下降,但仍會產生影響。

  • Turning to our financial highlights on Slide 5 (sic) [Slide 9]. First quarter net sales of $3 billion decreased 8% as reported and 3% on an organic basis versus the year ago period. Currency resulted in a 3% headwind from dollar strength against key currencies, most notably the Yen, Yuan and Euro, and we also saw a 2% headwind related to portfolio changes.

    轉向我們在幻燈片 5(原文如此)[幻燈片 9] 上的財務亮點。第一季度淨銷售額為 30 億美元,與去年同期相比下降 8%,有機下降 3%。美元兌主要貨幣(尤其是日元、人民幣和歐元)走強導致 3% 的逆風,我們還看到與投資組合變化相關的 2% 的逆風。

  • Breaking down the 3% organic sales decline: 4% pricing gains were more than offset by a 7% volume decline. Pricing reflects the carryover impact of actions taken during 2022 to offset broad-based inflation related to raw materials, logistics and energy. Volume decline reflects weakness in consumer electronics, resulting from decreased consumer spending, channel inventory, destocking and softness in construction. Lower volume in these consumer-driven, short-cycle end markets was partially mitigated by ongoing strength in water, automotive, aerospace and healthcare markets.

    分解 3% 的有機銷售額下降:4% 的定價收益被 7% 的銷量下降所抵消。定價反映了 2022 年為抵消與原材料、物流和能源相關的廣泛通脹而採取的行動的結轉影響。銷量下降反映了消費電子產品的疲軟,這是由於消費者支出減少、渠道庫存、去庫存和建築業疲軟造成的。水、汽車、航空航天和醫療保健市場的持續走強部分緩解了這些以消費者為導向的短週期終端市場的銷量下降。

  • Taken in combination, volume within electronics and construction end markets during the quarter was down high teens in the aggregate versus the year ago period, while our remaining businesses were up low single digits. From a regional perspective, Europe and North America sales in the quarter were up 5% and 1%, respectively, on an organic basis, while Asia Pacific was down 10% versus the year ago period. China sales were down nearly 20%, driven principally by the electronics weakness.

    綜合來看,本季度電子和建築終端市場的總量與去年同期相比下降了十幾位,而我們其餘的業務則增長了低個位數。從地區來看,本季度歐洲和北美銷售額分別有機增長 5% 和 1%,而亞太地區同比下降 10%。中國銷售額下降近 20%,主要受電子產品疲軟影響。

  • First quarter operating EBITDA of $714 million decreased 13% versus the year ago period, driven by lower volumes and the impacts of reduced production rates in electronics as we scale back production to better align with demand. Currency was also a headwind.

    第一季度營業 EBITDA 為 7.14 億美元,同比下降 13%,這是由於銷量下降以及我們縮減生產以更好地滿足需求而導致電子產品生產率下降的影響。貨幣也是一個不利因素。

  • Operating EBITDA margin during the quarter of 23.7% was down 130 basis points driven by volume pressure and inclusive of mixed headwinds related to lower volumes within the high-margin semi business. Decremental margin for the quarter was 41%. Given the high teens volume declines in our electronics portfolio, our overall decrementals were disproportionately impacted as these businesses are some of the most profitable within the DuPont portfolio.

    本季度 23.7% 的營業 EBITDA 利潤率下降了 130 個基點,原因是銷量壓力以及與高利潤半導體業務銷量下降相關的混合逆風。本季度的遞減利潤率為 41%。鑑於我們的電子產品組合中的青少年銷量下降幅度很大,我們的整體遞減量受到了不成比例的影響,因為這些業務是杜邦投資組合中利潤最高的業務之一。

  • Adjusted EPS in the quarter of $0.84 per share increased 2% versus last year, which I will detail shortly.

    本季度調整後的每股收益為 0.84 美元,比去年同期增長 2%,我將在稍後詳細說明。

  • Looking at cash performance. Cash flow from operations during the quarter of $343 million, less cash paid for CapEx of $241 million, resulted in adjusted free cash flow of $102 million. Included within free cash flow are transaction cost headwinds of about $75 million related to those cash payments associated with the M&M deal closing and ongoing Delrin Divestiture cost.

    看現金表現。本季度運營現金流為 3.43 億美元,減去為資本支出支付的現金 2.41 億美元,調整後的自由現金流為 1.02 億美元。自由現金流中包括約 7500 萬美元的交易成本逆風,這些逆風與與 M&M 交易關閉和正在進行的 Delrin 資產剝離成本相關的現金支付有關。

  • Turning to Slide 10. Adjusted EPS for the quarter of $0.84 per share increased 2% compared to $0.82 in the year ago period. Headwinds related to overall volume declines were more than offset by the low volume benefits, including an $0.11 benefit related to lower net interest expense and a $0.09 benefit due to share repurchases, including the upfront benefit of our ongoing ASR program initiated last November.

    轉到幻燈片 10。本季度調整後的每股收益為 0.84 美元,與去年同期的 0.82 美元相比增長了 2%。與整體銷量下降相關的逆風被低銷量收益所抵消,包括與淨利息支出降低相關的 0.11 美元收益和由於股票回購帶來的 0.09 美元收益,包括我們去年 11 月啟動的正在進行的 ASR 計劃的前期收益。

  • Our tax rate for the quarter was 23.4%, up from 21.8% in the year ago period resulting in a $0.02 headwind to adjusted EPS, driven primarily by geographic mix of earnings.

    我們本季度的稅率為 23.4%,高於去年同期的 21.8%,這導致調整後的每股收益出現 0.02 美元的逆風,這主要是由收入的地域組合驅動的。

  • Turning to segment results, beginning with E&I on Slide 11. E&I first quarter net sales of $1.3 billion decreased 16% as organic sales declined 13%, along with currency headwinds of 2% and unfavorable portfolio impact of 1%. The organic sales declines reflect a 15% decrease in volume, partially offset by a 2% increase in price. The organic sales decrease for E&I was driven by Interconnect Solutions, which was down 21% and Semiconductor Technologies, which was down mid-teens.

    轉向部門業績,從幻燈片 11 上的 E&I 開始。E&I 第一季度淨銷售額為 13 億美元,下降 16%,有機銷售額下降 13%,同時匯率逆風 2%,不利的投資組合影響 1%。有機銷售額下降反映出銷量下降 15%,部分被價格上漲 2% 所抵消。 E&I 的有機銷售額下降是由 Interconnect Solutions 和 Semiconductor Technologies 推動的,Interconnect Solutions 下降了 21%,Semiconductor Technologies 下降了 15%。

  • The decline in Interconnect was driven by weak smartphone, PC and tablet demand along with channel inventory destocking. Our PCB customers in China operated in the first quarter with utilization rates in the mid-40s, which is an expected cycle low. The decline in semi-tech resulted from reduced semiconductor fab utilization rates due to weak end market demand as well as downstream destocking of finished chip inventories.

    Interconnect 的下滑是由於智能手機、PC 和平板電腦需求疲軟以及渠道庫存去庫存所致。我們在中國的 PCB 客戶在第一季度運營,利用率在 40 年代中期,這是預期的周期低點。半技術產品的下滑是由於終端市場需求疲軟以及成品芯片庫存的下游去庫存導致半導體工廠利用率下降。

  • Semi-chip fab utilization rates in the first quarter averaged around 80%, which we expect to dip somewhat in the second quarter as these customers work down inventories. We expect recovery in fab rates began during the third quarter.

    第一季度的半芯片晶圓廠利用率平均在 80% 左右,我們預計第二季度會有所下降,因為這些客戶會減少庫存。我們預計晶圓廠率的回升將在第三季度開始。

  • Sales for Industrial Solutions were up low single digits on an organic basis as pricing and ongoing strength in Vespel aerospace products and in health care for applications such as biopharma consumables were partially offset by lower demand in largely consumer-driven areas, such as advanced printing and lighting applications.

    由於 Vespel 航空航天產品以及生物製藥耗材等醫療保健應用領域的定價和持續走強,工業解決方案的銷售額在有機基礎上實現了低個位數增長,這部分被主要由消費者驅動的領域(例如高級打印和印刷)的需求下降所抵消照明應用。

  • Operating EBITDA for E&I of $362 million was down versus the year ago period, primarily due to the drop-through impact of volume declines, which correspond to the lower customer utilization rates just referenced and our lower operating rates, as also mentioned.

    E&I 的運營 EBITDA 為 3.62 億美元,與去年同期相比有所下降,這主要是由於銷量下降的直接影響,這與剛才提到的較低的客戶利用率和我們較低的運營率相對應,如前所述。

  • Turning to Slide 12. W&P first quarter net sales of $1.45 billion increased 1% as organic sales growth of 4% was mostly offset by a 3% currency headwind. Organic growth reflects a 6% increase in price resulting from the carryover impact of pricing actions taken last year, partially offset by a 2% decrease in segment volumes. Organic sales growth was led by Water Solutions, which was up low double digits on strong pricing and continued demand growth for water filtration led by reverse osmosis product lines.

    轉到幻燈片 12。W&P 第一季度淨銷售額為 14.5 億美元,增長 1%,因為 4% 的有機銷售額增長大部分被 3% 的貨幣逆風所抵消。有機增長反映了去年採取的定價行動的結轉影響導致價格上漲 6%,部分被細分市場銷量下降 2% 所抵消。有機銷售增長由 Water Solutions 引領,由於強勁的定價和反滲透產品線引領的水過濾需求持續增長,Water Solutions 實現了兩位數的低位增長。

  • Safety Solutions sales were up mid-single digits on an organic basis on pricing and volume gains. Volume growth was driven by Kevlar and Nomex demand in aerospace and automotive markets, especially for EVs coupled with Tyvek's strength in healthcare.

    Safety Solutions 的銷售額在定價和銷量增長方面有機地增長了中等個位數。銷量增長是由航空航天和汽車市場對 Kevlar 和 Nomex 的需求推動的,尤其是對電動汽車以及 Tyvek 在醫療保健領域的實力。

  • Shelter Solutions was down mid-single digits on an organic basis on greater than 10% volume decline due to softness in construction markets, partially offset by pricing.

    由於建築市場疲軟,Shelter Solutions 的銷量自然下降了 10% 以上,部分被定價所抵消。

  • Operating EBITDA for W&P of $344 million increased 1% as pricing and disciplined cost control were largely offset by inflationary cost pressure, primarily related to higher raw material and energy costs, currency headwinds and lower volume.

    W&P 的運營 EBITDA 為 3.44 億美元,增長 1%,因為定價和嚴格的成本控制在很大程度上被通脹成本壓力所抵消,通脹成本壓力主要與原材料和能源成本上漲、貨幣逆風和銷量下降有關。

  • Before I turn it back to Ed, I'll close with a few comments on our financial outlook and guidance for second quarter and full year 2023 on Slide 13. As we look at the current demand environment, we continue to expect ongoing strength throughout the year in areas such as water, automotive, aerospace and healthcare. Within electronics markets, we continue to see weakness in channel inventory destocking in the near term. Based on recent customer feedback, echoed by their public commentary and third-party market forecast, we expect customer utilization rates to bottom relatively near term and to improve during the third quarter, which is about a quarter later than previously expected.

    在我把它轉回給 Ed 之前,我將在幻燈片 13 上對我們對第二季度和 2023 年全年的財務前景和指導發表一些評論。在我們審視當前的需求環境時,我們繼續預計整個行業的持續增長年在水、汽車、航空航天和醫療保健等領域。在電子市場中,我們繼續看到短期內渠道庫存去庫存的疲軟。根據最近的客戶反饋,以及他們的公開評論和第三方市場預測,我們預計客戶利用率將在短期內相對觸底,並在第三季度有所改善,這比之前的預期晚了大約四分之一。

  • To highlight these assumptions, we've included current market forecasts for semiconductor and smartphone market on Slide 14. For semiconductors, third-party research now suggests MSI will be down 13% for the full year 2023 compared to estimates last quarter, indicating down mid-single digits with fab utilization expected to ramp back up above 80% beginning in the fourth quarter. For both of these end markets, you can see the expected improvement beginning during the third quarter, which reflects a later and somewhat more gradual pace than the assumptions last quarter.

    為了強調這些假設,我們在幻燈片 14 中包含了當前對半導體和智能手機市場的預測。對於半導體,第三方研究現在表明,與上一季度的估計相比,MSI 將在 2023 年全年下降 13%,表明處於中期下降-個位數,晶圓廠利用率預計將從第四季度開始回升至 80% 以上。對於這兩個終端市場,您可以看到第三季度開始的預期改善,這反映出比上一季度的假設更晚、更漸進的步伐。

  • Due to the delay in the near-term recovery, we are adjusting the high end of our full year guidance ranges for net sales, operating EBITDA and adjusted EPS. We now expect full year net sales to be between $12.3 billion and $12.5 billion; operating EBITDA to be between $3 billion and $3.1 billion; and adjusted EPS to be between $3.55 and $3.70 per share.

    由於近期復甦的延遲,我們正在調整淨銷售額、經營 EBITDA 和調整後每股收益的全年指導範圍的高端。我們現在預計全年淨銷售額將在 123 億美元至 125 億美元之間;運營 EBITDA 在 30 億至 31 億美元之間;調整後的每股收益在 3.55 美元至 3.70 美元之間。

  • For the second quarter 2023, we expect similar results for the first quarter as overall market conditions are anticipated to be generally consistent. On a longer-term view, historical data suggests downturns in these markets are short, lasting about 3 to 4 quarters, which gives us confidence in the longer-term growth for electronics as we get through this year.

    對於 2023 年第二季度,我們預計第一季度會有類似的結果,因為預計整體市場狀況將基本保持一致。從長期來看,歷史數據表明這些市場的低迷是短暫的,持續大約 3 到 4 個季度,這讓我們對今年電子產品的長期增長充滿信心。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to Ed.

    有了這個,我會把它轉回給埃德。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Thanks, Lori. Before we take your questions, I'd like to highlight that we published our annual sustainability report yesterday, highlighting the ongoing work of our employees across the globe to meet our commitments across all aspects of ESG. As a reminder, our sustainability strategy is grounded in 3 pillars: innovation, protecting people on the planet and empowering employees and customers. I continue to be proud of the progress we are making on our 2030 goals and remain impressed at the speed in which we are advancing.

    謝謝,洛瑞。在我們回答您的問題之前,我想強調一下,我們昨天發布了年度可持續發展報告,強調了我們全球員工為履行我們在 ESG 各個方面的承諾所做的持續工作。提醒一下,我們的可持續發展戰略基於三大支柱:創新、保護地球上的人們以及賦予員工和客戶權力。我繼續為我們在 2030 年目標方面取得的進展感到自豪,並對我們前進的速度印象深刻。

  • On climate change, we exceeded our 2030 acting on climate goal to reduce Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 30%, well ahead of schedule and we have set a new goal, which has been validated by SBTI to reach a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030.

    在氣候變化方面,我們超額完成了 2030 年將範圍 1 和範圍 2 溫室氣體排放量減少 30% 的氣候目標,並且我們已經設定了一個新目標,該目標已被 SBTI 驗證為實現 50% 的減排到 2030 年的排放量。

  • Regarding innovation, 80% of our top innovation programs deliver sustainability value for customers.

    在創新方面,我們 80% 的頂級創新項目為客戶帶來可持續發展價值。

  • Within water, we've helped to enable seawater to be used as a source of potable drinking water with our reverse osmosis technology. We're also helping reduce carbon emissions through building materials innovation and protection.

    在水方面,我們通過反滲透技術幫助將海水用作飲用水源。我們還通過建築材料創新和保護來幫助減少碳排放。

  • In auto markets, we're making electric vehicle battery safer with our materials for thermal management. And within electronics, we directly enabled increased performance requirements in semiconductor manufacturing.

    在汽車市場,我們正在使用我們的熱管理材料使電動汽車電池更安全。在電子產品領域,我們直接滿足了半導體製造對性能的更高要求。

  • In our community, we engaged over 500 community projects with over 300 nonprofit partners across 30 countries focused on STEM education.

    在我們的社區中,我們與 30 個國家/地區的 300 多個非營利合作夥伴開展了 500 多個社區項目,重點關注 STEM 教育。

  • From a DE&I standpoint, many aspects of our inclusive culture continue to be recognized. 2022 marked our second year on Forbes Magazine's world's top female-friendly companies list as one example. There are many great examples and stories in the report of how our teams are delivering on our purpose and driving sustainability. Overall, our teams have done a tremendous job.

    從 DE&I 的角度來看,我們包容性文化的許多方面繼續得到認可。 2022 年是我們連續第二年登上《福布斯》雜誌全球女性友好公司榜單。報告中有許多很好的例子和故事,說明我們的團隊如何實現我們的目標並推動可持續發展。總的來說,我們的團隊做得非常出色。

  • With that, we are pleased to take your questions, and let me turn it back to the operator to open the Q&A.

    有了這個,我們很高興回答你的問題,讓我把它轉回給接線員打開問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫圖薩。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Could you just help level set us on where you stand as far as the amount left? You have left to buy back for the rest of the year and the pace on that. And then when the -- when Delrin closes, just remind us of the proceeds you're expecting there and what you'd expect to do with that cash.

    你能幫助我們確定你所剩金額的水平嗎?你已經離開了今年剩餘時間的回購和步伐。然後當 - 當 Delrin 關閉時,只需提醒我們您期望在那裡獲得的收益以及您期望用這些現金做什麼。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, I'll take the share repurchase. So we still have $2 billion left to complete, which we will do on the back of the completion of the current ASR, which is expected sometime in the August, September time frame. We'll get started on the second program and be able to take 80% of the shares out upfront and then it usually will take us about 6 months to complete the full $2 billion authorization.

    是的,我會進行股份回購。因此,我們還有 20 億美元需要完成,我們將在當前 ASR 完成後完成,預計將在 8 月、9 月的某個時間完成。我們將開始第二個項目,並能夠預先獲得 80% 的股份,然後我們通常需要大約 6 個月的時間才能完成 20 億美元的全部授權。

  • Turning to Ed for the Delrin comment.

    求助於 Ed 以獲取 Delrin 的評論。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes. So Delrin, we're expecting to close by the end of the year. We've been doing all the carve out work. So we're very far along on accomplishing all that. I'm not going to talk about what we sell it for. But the EBITDA is about $180 million on the business. So you kind of figure out the ZIP code on that as we move forward. Again, that cash should be somewhere kind of end of the year, beginning of next year.

    是的。所以 Delrin,我們預計將在今年年底前關閉。我們一直在做所有的工作。所以我們在實現這一切方面還差得很遠。我不會談論我們賣它的目的。但該業務的 EBITDA 約為 1.8 億美元。因此,在我們前進的過程中,您可以算出郵政編碼。同樣,現金應該在今年年底或明年年初的某個地方出現。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Got it. And then just lastly, on price cost. What's your outlook for pricing for the non-electronics businesses in the second half? And any update on your -- on the spread for the year, if there's any positive benefit there? I think it was $100 million or something in prior guide.

    知道了。最後,關於價格成本。您如何看待下半年非電子業務的定價?如果有任何積極的好處,還有關於你的年度傳播的任何更新嗎?我認為這是 1 億美元或之前指南中的一些東西。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes. We have not changed that, Steve. Maybe we're being conservative, obviously, as we've said before. We've worked very hard with our teams on how we're going to handle this as we move forward. The timing is -- we're seeing a little bit of it, by the way, because of logistics and shipping rates being down, but the big bulk of it will be on the raws. It will be more on the W&P side. And remember, by the time we renegotiate contracts and then you've got like a 4-month window to get it through our supply chain into a finished good that's sold.

    是的。我們沒有改變這一點,史蒂夫。顯然,正如我們之前所說,也許我們是保守的。在我們前進的過程中,我們與我們的團隊一起非常努力地研究如何處理這個問題。時機是 - 順便說一句,由於物流和運費下降,我們看到了一點點,但其中大部分將是原始的。它將更多地出現在 W&P 方面。請記住,當我們重新談判合同時,您將有大約 4 個月的時間通過我們的供應鏈將其轉化為成品並出售。

  • It's the kind of figure out timing of it, but we have not changed the assumption, which is very little of the $800 million that we raised pricing. And we'll just update everybody as we get to next quarter on that, and we'll have a clearer picture of what that potentially is.

    這是一種計算時間的方式,但我們沒有改變假設,這在我們提高定價的 8 億美元中很少。我們將在下一季度更新每個人,我們將更清楚地了解這可能是什麼。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. And on the pricing side, so we saw 4% total in Q1. It was 6% in W&P. We see that decelerating as we lap the 2022 benefits. And so in the second quarter, we expect an overall about 1% price lift, really 2% in W&P and flat in E&I.

    是的。在定價方面,我們在第一季度看到了 4%。 W&P 為 6%。我們看到,隨著 2022 年收益的增加,這種情況正在減速。因此,在第二季度,我們預計整體價格上漲約 1%,W&P 實際上漲 2%,E&I 持平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research Partners.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Sprague。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • Ed, maybe a little color on how active you are on the buy side of M&A. The -- what the pipeline looks like? I don't think you responded to the potential use of Delrin proceeds. When that happens, should we expect kind of more M&A like this or some combination of even additional repo plus M&A?

    埃德,也許你在併購的買方方面有多活躍。管道是什麼樣子的?我認為您沒有對 Delrin 收益的潛在用途做出回應。當這種情況發生時,我們應該期待更多這樣的併購,還是更多的回購加併購的某種組合?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes, Jeff, our leaning right now is nothing else on the radar screen over the next year on the M&A side. We want to get the Spectrum deal done, focus on that. By the way, the layered acquisition we did the other year is going extremely well. So I think there's nothing that we're excited about that we see out there.

    是的,傑夫,我們現在的傾向是明年在併購方面的雷達屏幕上。我們希望完成 Spectrum 交易,專注於此。順便說一句,我們前一年進行的分層收購進行得非常順利。所以我認為我們在那裡看到的沒有什麼讓我們興奮的。

  • This one, by the way, we've had our eyes on for quite a period of time. As I think we said in our comments, they are actually a customer of ours. So this is really where we've been focused for the last kind of 1 year, 1.5 years with our thinking. If I had to say right now with any extra proceeds, I think we would lean towards additional share repurchase, but remember to Lori's comments, it's still going to be about over the next year that we're still taking shares out of the market.

    順便說一句,我們已經關注了很長一段時間。正如我認為我們在評論中所說的那樣,他們實際上是我們的客戶。所以這真的是我們在過去 1 年、1.5 年的思考中一直關注的地方。如果我現在不得不說有任何額外收益,我認為我們會傾向於額外的股票回購,但請記住 Lori 的評論,我們仍然會在明年將股票撤出市場。

  • The existing ASR as we said, and then we'll -- as soon as we finish this one, we'll launch the new ASR for $2 billion and that will take us till back the end of the first quarter of 2024. So any excess cash we'll deal with at that point in time. But it depends on the environment, obviously. But if the environment were like it is now, where the multiple is for the company. My [good is we linked] towards share repurchase.

    正如我們所說的那樣,現有的 ASR,然後我們將——一旦我們完成這個,我們將以 20 億美元的價格推出新的 ASR,這將使我們回到 2024 年第一季度末。所以任何我們將在那個時間點處理多餘的現金。但這顯然取決於環境。但是,如果環境像現在這樣,公司的倍數是多少。我的 [好是我們聯繫在一起] 股票回購。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • And could you speak to, I guess, for lack of a better term, kind of contingency planning? On the electronic stuff, as you said, I think you tried to triangulate between your own intel and third parties and what your customers are telling you. But it does look and feel like some of these customers are chasing a ball down the hill here on some of this stuff. So there's things you can't control, but the question is and things you can control kind of cost actions that you might be taking or considering. And I wonder if also a part of that answer, you could kind of speak to maybe the opportunity to unlock some additional cash from working capital as we work through this kind of cycling down in the electronics markets.

    我想,由於沒有更好的術語,你能談談應急計劃嗎?關於電子產品,正如你所說,我認為你試圖在你自己的英特爾和第三方之間以及你的客戶告訴你的事情之間進行三角測量。但它確實看起來和感覺這些客戶中的一些人正在這裡的一些東西上追逐一個球。所以有些事情你無法控制,但問題是你可以控制你可能正在採取或考慮的成本行動。我想知道是否也是這個答案的一部分,你是否可以說,當我們在電子市場經歷這種循環下滑時,你是否有機會從營運資金中釋放一些額外的現金。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes. Just as an overall comment, though, Jeff, it's interesting. The semi -- you go back and study all the other downturn. Remember, semi is a great industry, by the way. It's going to go up the next couple of decades, but you always do hit these pockets of some destock and some softness. So -- but this actually for us, when you look at our sales rates, semi started coming down at the beginning of the fourth quarter. So we're 2 full quarters into the downturn.

    是的。不過,就總體評論而言,Jeff,這很有趣。半-你回去研究所有其他低迷時期。請記住,順便說一下,半成品是一個偉大的行業。在接下來的幾十年裡它會上升,但你總是會遇到一些去庫存和一些疲軟的情況。所以——但這實際上對我們來說,當你看看我們的銷售率時,半成品在第四季度初開始下降。所以我們已經進入了低迷的兩個完整季度。

  • Now we think the quarter we're in now is the bottom, just slightly down more from the first quarter. When you look at them, there are usually 3 to maximum 4 quarters of a destock. Remember, a lot of this is destock on top of some consumer softness, obviously. So we're pretty deep into it. It would appear.

    現在我們認為我們現在所在的季度處於底部,與第一季度相比略有下降。當您查看它們時,通常有 3 到最多 4 個季度去庫存。請記住,很明顯,其中很多是在一些消費者疲軟的基礎上去庫存。所以我們已經很深入了。它會出現。

  • Having said that, to your direct question, though, we've got a couple of other layers of actions we would take on the cost side to protect ourselves. And then back to the conversation we just had with Steve Tusa, obviously, we're going to work this price/cost thing real hard and haven't [made that time] at this point in time. So that would be where the 2 levers would be.

    話雖如此,對於你的直接問題,我們還有其他幾層我們會在成本方面採取的行動來保護自己。然後回到我們剛剛與 Steve Tusa 的談話,顯然,我們將非常努力地處理這個價格/成本問題,但目前還沒有 [made that time]。所以這就是 2 個槓桿所在的位置。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I think on the inventory piece, too, so we did take action in the first quarter that was a headwind to E&I margins of about $40 million to $45 million to be able to better align inventory and production rates. And so we saw a headwind there. We'll continue to see that headwind in the second quarter as well as we try to get inventory more in line with where the demand signal is. But to Ed's point, to just reiterate on the discretionary side, we are doing a fair amount of actions. You can see on the face of our P&L that we took about 10% out of our total SARD that was really a function of the restructuring that we did in the tail end of 2022 as well as really tensioning backfills in travel and expense, and we'll continue in that mode as we go into -- as we said in 2Q as well.

    是的。我也認為在庫存方面,所以我們在第一季度確實採取了行動,這對 E&I 利潤率造成了大約 4000 萬至 4500 萬美元的不利影響,以便能夠更好地調整庫存和生產率。所以我們在那裡看到了逆風。我們將在第二季度繼續看到這種逆風,我們會努力使庫存更符合需求信號。但就 Ed 的觀點而言,只是在自由裁量方面重申一下,我們正在採取相當多的行動。從我們的損益表上可以看出,我們從 SARD 總額中扣除了大約 10%,這實際上是我們在 2022 年底進行的重組以及差旅和費用回填的實際結果,我們正如我們在第二季度所說的那樣,我們將繼續採用這種模式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • Can you guys talk -- I know it's not giant, but it can't move the needle if you do it right on Spectrum. What -- can you make it better? You commented just that it's more North American-based. Is there an opportunity to take it globally? Is there anything that you can do? Synergies look fairly modest, maybe you're just being conservative. But is there anything you can do with that asset to perhaps drive those returns up a little higher than the deal model?

    你們能不能談談——我知道它不是巨大的,但如果你在 Spectrum 上做對了,它就無法移動針頭。什麼——你能讓它變得更好嗎?你評論說它更基於北美。有機會在全球範圍內推廣嗎?有什麼可以做的嗎?協同效應看起來相當溫和,也許你只是保守。但是,您是否可以對該資產做些什麼來推動這些回報比交易模式略高一些?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes. Well, Scott, we didn't take into account any revenue synergies. So let me just talk on the cost piece for a second. We only put in $20 million of cost synergies, which, by the way, is only 3% to 4% of revenue, which is obviously low compared to -- you know what, deals normally are on the synergy side. So I think our net 13.2x is pretty conservative based on just that $20 million. The real opportunity here is going to be on the growth side. Remember, our relationships at DuPont are namely -- and by the way, they're very deep relationships with the biopharma OEMs.

    是的。好吧,斯科特,我們沒有考慮任何收入協同效應。因此,讓我先談談成本部分。我們只投入了 2000 萬美元的成本協同效應,順便說一下,這只佔收入的 3% 到 4%,這顯然低於——你知道嗎,交易通常是在協同效應方面。所以我認為我們的淨 13.2 倍基於這 2000 萬美元是相當保守的。這裡真正的機會將出現在增長方面。請記住,我們在杜邦的關係是——順便說一句,他們與生物製藥原始設備製造商的關係非常深厚。

  • Spectrums are more with the medical device OEMs, but a lot of our technology actually goes through companies like Spectrum into that industry. So when we look at the ability for DuPont to move its technologies and material science into the medical device market with Spectrum. And by the way, the opposite of that Spectrum moving into the biopharma space. And when we look at the joint opportunities we could have together, we could drive some nice incremental growth there. And by the way, we've been talking to them and looking at this opportunity that I'm talking to for a very long time. So I think that's the big benefit.

    Spectrums 更多的是醫療設備原始設備製造商,但我們的很多技術實際上都是通過像 Spectrum 這樣的公司進入那個行業的。因此,當我們審視杜邦通過 Spectrum 將其技術和材料科學轉移到醫療設備市場的能力時。順便說一句,與進入生物製藥領域的 Spectrum 相反。當我們審視我們可以共同擁有的聯合機會時,我們可以在那裡推動一些不錯的增量增長。順便說一句,我們一直在與他們交談並尋找我正在交談的這個機會很長一段時間。所以我認為這是最大的好處。

  • Can we get some more cost synergies? Probably 10, but we haven't counted on it yet. But it will be the growth that this business has been growing, as you can see in our charts, kind of right around 10% over the last 4 years. It's going to actually grow faster this year. They've got a couple of big new wins from OEM customers. And then we can broaden it out a little bit more globally because of our footprint on the Liveo side. But remember, a lot of the medical device players are U.S.-based companies that sell globally.

    我們能否獲得更多的成本協同效應?可能有 10 個,但我們還沒有指望它。但正如您在我們的圖表中看到的那樣,這將是該業務一直在增長的增長,在過去 4 年中大約增長了 10%。今年它實際上會增長得更快。他們從 OEM 客戶那裡獲得了幾項新的重大勝利。然後,由於我們在 Liveo 方面的足跡,我們可以在全球範圍內擴大它的範圍。但請記住,許多醫療設備參與者都是在全球銷售的美國公司。

  • The other opportunity, Scott, the other big one we have is we have a path to get the margins of Spectrum up about 300 basis points. They -- very recently, I say, in the last year, put in a fair amount of new production capacity that's getting filled up because just the growth rate, David (sic) [Scott], you think about 4 years in a row of 10%. So they have a fair amount that they're just completing on the factory expansion side. And as we fill up those assets and get them utilized will drive the margins up another 300 basis points. So that would back to me, would even be a bigger lever than the cost one, to be more of that margin expansion and then the revenue opportunity.

    另一個機會,斯科特,我們擁有的另一個重要機會是我們有辦法使 Spectrum 的利潤率提高約 300 個基點。他們 - 最近,我說,在去年,投入了相當數量的新產能,這些產能正在被填滿,因為大衛(原文如此)[斯科特]的增長率,你認為連續 4 年10%。因此,他們在工廠擴建方面剛剛完成了相當數量的工作。當我們填滿這些資產並加以利用時,利潤率將再提高 300 個基點。所以這對我來說,甚至是比成本更大的槓桿,更多的是利潤擴張,然後是收入機會。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • Okay. Interesting. And then just as a quick follow-up, the price comments you just made, Lori, the sequential kind of drop down, is that -- mathematically, is that more just that we're getting to the tougher comps on when you jacked prices up a year ago? Or is there -- okay. So there's no sequential weakness?

    好的。有趣的。然後作為一個快速跟進,你剛剛發表的價格評論,Lori,連續的下降,是——從數學上講,這更多的是當你抬高價格時我們會得到更嚴格的補償一年前?或者有沒有——好的。所以沒有連續的弱點?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, there's no sequential price declines of any magnitude baked in. It's more just lapping. Last year, the bulk of the raise was in like February, March time frame. So...

    是的,沒有任何幅度的連續價格下跌。它更像是研磨。去年,大部分加薪發生在 2 月、3 月的時間框架內。所以...

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson from Mizuho.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Christopher Parkinson。

  • Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst

  • Your performance in W&P specifically on the water and the safety side has been pretty solid. Depending on, obviously, where the macro takes us, which is naturally out of your control, can you speak to the potential resiliency of those 2 businesses in terms of your expectations for the second half embedded in guidance?

    您在 W&P 中的表現特別是在水上和安全方面非常可靠。顯然,這取決於宏觀將我們帶向何方,這自然是您無法控制的,您能否根據您對指導中對下半年的預期來談談這兩項業務的潛在彈性?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So we still expect continued strength in water. So we had a nice organic growth in the first quarter on both a price and volume basis, and we expect that to continue as we head into the rest of the year. There's a lot of secular trends favoring our water portfolio right now.

    是的。因此,我們仍然預計水會持續走強。因此,我們在第一季度在價格和數量的基礎上實現了良好的有機增長,我們預計在進入今年剩餘時間時這種情況將繼續下去。現在有很多長期趨勢有利於我們的水投資組合。

  • And on the safety side, we're seeing strength as well in most areas, especially what we highlighted with respect to the Spectrum acquisition on our health care portfolio. So we've got about a $500 million medical packaging business in tie back that's performing very nicely. So we see those secular trends continuing throughout the rest of 2023.

    在安全方面,我們在大多數領域也看到了優勢,尤其是我們強調的關於對我們醫療保健產品組合的 Spectrum 收購。因此,我們有大約 5 億美元的醫療包裝業務,該業務表現非常好。因此,我們看到這些長期趨勢將在 2023 年剩餘時間持續。

  • One other area, too, that we can highlight of growth within the safety portfolio is the EV piece. So there's a nice application for Nomex paper within the e-motor that we're seeing nice growth in the first quarter, and we look for that to continue as well.

    我們還可以強調安全產品組合中增長的另一個領域是電動汽車。因此,Nomex 紙在電動馬達中有一個很好的應用,我們在第一季度看到了不錯的增長,我們希望這種情況也能繼續下去。

  • Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst

  • That's very helpful. And just given the results on the margin front, Lori, for the first quarter, can you just give us a real quick update on your expectation for the intermediate to long-term outlook to 27%, 28%? Is that still roughly in line with your expectations in terms of your progression back to those levels?

    這很有幫助。鑑於利潤率方面的結果,Lori,第一季度,您能否真正快速地告訴我們您對中長期前景的預期為 27%、28%?這是否仍然大致符合您對恢復到這些水平的預期?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I mean that's still our expectation with 3 big tailwinds between now and then. One is obviously the volume recovery in E&I and getting those margins back into the low 30s. So we dipped in Q1. That was really a reflection of the volume and the actions we took to align production with demand. So that $40 million to $45 million created a headwind in the first quarter. So that is not permanent, that will resolve itself.

    是的。我的意思是,這仍然是我們的預期,從現在到那時會有 3 大順風。一個顯然是 E&I 的銷量回升,並將這些利潤率恢復到 30 多歲的低位。所以我們在第一季度有所下降。這確實反映了我們為使生產與需求保持一致而採取的數量和行動。因此,這 4000 萬至 4500 萬美元在第一季度造成了阻力。所以這不是永久的,它會自行解決。

  • Another tailwind is the price/cost piece. So as we can see a potential future benefit there, that will be margin accretive for us. And so those are the 2 biggest levers. And then, obviously, the final piece is the mix component. So as you get E&I back on its growth trajectory, obviously, is the highest margin piece of our portfolio. So there's a favorable mix lift there as that market starts to recover.

    另一個有利因素是價格/成本。因此,我們可以在那裡看到潛在的未來利益,這將增加我們的利潤率。因此,這是兩個最大的槓桿。然後,很明顯,最後一部分是混合組件。因此,當您讓 E&I 回到其增長軌跡時,顯然,這是我們投資組合中利潤率最高的部分。因此,隨著市場開始復蘇,那裡有一個有利的組合提升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Mike Leithead from Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

  • Michael James Leithead - Research Analyst

    Michael James Leithead - Research Analyst

  • First question, just on Spectrum. Apologies if I missed this, but in the materials, but is it possible to provide the 2022 revenue and EBITDA for the business?

    第一個問題,關於 Spectrum。抱歉,如果我錯過了這個,但在材料中,是否有可能為企業提供 2022 年的收入和 EBITDA?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So 2022 revenue is about $450 million and EBITDA was about $95 million.

    是的。因此,2022 年的收入約為 4.5 億美元,EBITDA 約為 9500 萬美元。

  • Michael James Leithead - Research Analyst

    Michael James Leithead - Research Analyst

  • Great. And then secondly, can you just talk about the lower leverage target now about kind of 2.0 instead of 2.75. Is this just more conservatism in the current rate environment? Or just kind of help frame the pivot there.

    偉大的。其次,你能不能談談現在的較低杠桿目標是 2.0 而不是 2.75。這只是在當前的利率環境下更加保守嗎?或者只是幫助構建那裡的樞軸。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes. It's exactly what you said. It's more a higher interest rate environment we're in. And I think it's just prudent to set there. By the way, not the #1 reason, but another reason is the premier multi-industrial companies are all, if you look at it kind of centered around 2x leverage we were kind of targeted up at that 2.75. So we think that this environment, interest rate environment, it's just a prudent place to be and so that's where we'll end the year about there. Maybe actually a little slightly below 2x, depending on the Delrin proceeds that we get. And then we always have -- we preserve our strategic flexibility there, but that's kind of where we'd like to target ourselves moving forward. But really, the interest rate environment is the key reason.

    是的。正是你所說的。我們所處的利率環境更高。我認為設置在那裡是明智的。順便說一下,這不是第一大原因,但另一個原因是主要的跨行業公司都是,如果你看一下它以 2 倍槓桿為中心,我們的目標是 2.75。所以我們認為這種環境,利率環境,它只是一個謹慎的地方,所以這就是我們將在那裡結束這一年的地方。實際上可能略低於 2 倍,這取決於我們獲得的 Delrin 收益。然後我們總是——我們在那裡保留了我們的戰略靈活性,但這是我們希望將自己向前推進的目標。但實際上,利率環境是關鍵原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Aleksey Yefremov from KeyBanc.

    我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

  • Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

    Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

  • Ed, I wanted to follow up on your 300 basis point margin expansion opportunity for Spectrum to clarify. Is this opportunity in your high single digit ROIC number? Or it could push the number higher?

    Ed,我想跟進你的 300 個基點保證金擴張機會,讓 Spectrum 澄清一下。這個機會在您的高個位數 ROIC 數字中嗎?或者它可以推高這個數字?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • No, it's in there. We have a -- I mean just the growth rates they're on right now, if you look at it, they're going to be -- I won't get into specific knowledge, that there'll be north of 10% growth this year. So just adding that leverage into the system really moves the needle for us, especially when they built new capacity in place and you're sitting there with it, you're hiring people on -- you're just kind of going through that digestion period as you're ramping up. So as we said, their revenues this year, Lori just mentioned 2022, the revenues this year will be like $500 million. So nice growth trajectory, and you just play those numbers through the system, that's where you get to.

    不,它在裡面。我們有一個 - 我的意思是他們現在的增長率,如果你看一下,他們將會 - 我不會深入了解具體知識,那將超過 10%今年的增長。因此,將這種影響力添加到系統中確實為我們帶來了好處,尤其是當他們建立了新的能力並且您坐在那裡時,您正在僱用人員-您只是在經歷這種消化期間,因為你正在加速。正如我們所說,他們今年的收入,Lori 剛剛提到 2022 年,今年的收入將達到 5 億美元。如此好的增長軌跡,你只需通過系統播放這些數字,這就是你到達的地方。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • And even if you back into the numbers that I had mentioned for 2022, that's about a 21% EBITDA margin. 2023 is expected to be 22%, so already 100 basis points of improvement. And they had a really nice first quarter ahead of their management plan actually. So they're on a very nice trajectory to achieve that average $110 million of EBITDA in 2023.

    即使你回到我提到的 2022 年的數字,EBITDA 利潤率也約為 21%。 2023 年預計為 22%,因此已經提高了 100 個基點。事實上,他們在管理計劃之前有一個非常好的第一季度。因此,他們正處於一個非常好的軌道上,可以在 2023 年實現平均 1.1 億美元的 EBITDA。

  • Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

    Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

  • And as a follow-up, in semis and interconnect clearly, it's a challenging market. Can you discuss your outgrowth? Are you continuing to gain content in these markets this year?

    作為後續行動,顯然在半導體和互連領域,這是一個充滿挑戰的市場。你能談談你的成長嗎?今年您是否繼續在這些市場上獲得內容?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, we would expect to see that, and we actually are seeing some share gains in the Litho in the packaging space, still underneath the numbers that we're reporting. So what is clouding our performance versus the MSI is the destock piece. So the destock is pretty significant. That's going on in the first half. It would be another headwind on top of the MSI numbers that we have presented in the deck. And so that's what's clouding the story a little bit, but we still expect that content and exposure to advancement to be able to give us outperformance in total.

    是的,我們希望看到這一點,我們實際上看到 Litho 在包裝領域的份額有所增加,但仍低於我們報告的數字。因此,使我們的表現與 MSI 相比蒙上陰影的是去庫存。所以去庫存非常重要。上半場就是這樣。這將是我們在甲板上展示的 MSI 數字之上的另一個逆風。所以這就是讓這個故事有點模糊的原因,但我們仍然希望內容和接觸進步能夠讓我們總體上表現出色。

  • Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

    Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

  • Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

  • Vincent Stephen Andrews - MD

    Vincent Stephen Andrews - MD

  • Ed, point taken on the sort of historical electronic cycle, the 3- to 4-quarter downturn, just curious if there's any sensitivity to that. And what I mean by that is -- and you're looking for the recovery in the third quarter. If for some reason, it doesn't come in the third quarter, can it still come in the fourth quarter? Or is there some seasonal reason why it might get kicked into the first quarter, if that were to play out?

    Ed,關於歷史電子週期的觀點,即 3 到 4 個季度的低迷,只是好奇是否對此有任何敏感性。我的意思是——你正在尋找第三季度的複蘇。如果因為某種原因,第三節不來,第四節還能來嗎?或者是否有一些季節性原因導致它可能會被踢到第一季度,如果那要結束的話?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • No, there's no seasonal reason, Vincent. It's hard to tell exactly what month it is in there. But we've modeled all the other downturns. And remember, this downturn is pretty significant now. The 13% down is correct. You're hitting it pretty quickly on the destocking.

    不,沒有季節性原因,文森特。很難確切地說出那裡是幾月。但我們已經模擬了所有其他衰退。請記住,這種低迷現在非常嚴重。下降 13% 是正確的。你在去庫存方面很快就達到了目標。

  • And then, by the way, there's one other factor here to kind of pushed it out a little bit, one of the very large semiconductor players kept running hard on their fab utilization through the first quarter, and that's public knowledge. I'm not going to mention the name, but one of the big players. So that is creating also the fact that they got to take their utilization down pretty rapidly here. And I think they just talked publicly about that a week or so ago. So that was one of the other reasons that just kind of pushed it out a little and they got to go through a destock also.

    然後,順便說一句,這裡還有另一個因素有點推動了它,其中一家非常大的半導體公司在第一季度一直在努力提高他們的晶圓廠利用率,這是眾所周知的。我不打算提名字,而是其中一位大玩家。因此,這也創造了一個事實,即他們必須在這裡迅速降低他們的利用率。我認為他們大約一周前才公開談論過這個問題。所以這是其他原因之一,只是稍微推遲了一點,他們也必須經歷去庫存。

  • Vincent Stephen Andrews - MD

    Vincent Stephen Andrews - MD

  • And can I just ask on Spectrum. I don't know if you mentioned this before, I didn't see it. But what polymers and materials are critical to their products? And are there any particular folks that they tend to compete against?

    我可以在 Spectrum 上問一下嗎?我不知道你之前有沒有提到這個,我沒有看到它。但是哪些聚合物和材料對他們的產品至關重要?有沒有他們傾向於與之競爭的特定人群?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So they compete against TE, Nordson and Integer, are some of their larger competitors. As far as on the input side, they are -- they use their specialty polymers and design expertise to manufacture very high complexity materials for the large med device players. And so that's, as I had mentioned earlier, where we see a really nice, sweet spot of being able to leverage the 2 portfolios.

    是的。因此,他們與 TE、Nordson 和 Integer 競爭,這些都是他們的一些較大的競爭對手。就輸入方面而言,他們是——他們使用他們的特種聚合物和設計專業知識為大型醫療設備製造商製造非常複雜的材料。因此,正如我之前提到的,我們看到了能夠利用這兩個投資組合的一個非常好的、甜蜜的點。

  • They've got really nice positions with the medical device guys, and we've got really nice positions with the biopharma guys. And so being able to bring our 2 portfolios leverage our expertise in material science across the broader portfolio is where we see the opportunity for us ahead.

    他們在醫療器械公司的職位非常好,而我們在生物製藥公司的職位也非常好。因此,能夠將我們的 2 個產品組合利用我們在更廣泛的產品組合中的材料科學專業知識,是我們看到未來機遇的地方。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Josh Spector from UBS.

    下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

  • Joshua David Spector - Equity Research Associate - Chemicals

    Joshua David Spector - Equity Research Associate - Chemicals

  • Just when I look at your E&I guidance for 2Q, I mean, you're basically flat to slightly up sequentially on the sales line. I mean pretty clear how you're guiding towards semis and utilization rates come down, some interconnect is kind of a push as well. So is industrials doing better sequentially? And is there anything you note there that's maybe different than what you expected?

    就在我查看您的第二季度 E&I 指導時,我的意思是,您在銷售線上基本上持平到略有上升。我的意思是很清楚你是如何引導半成品和利用率下降的,一些互連也是一種推動。那麼,工業股的環比表現是否更好?你注意到有什麼可能與你的預期不同嗎?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • No, you had walked through the pieces. So industrial, we still expect continued strength overall within industrial. There's a little bit of a flip between interconnect and semi sequentially. So you'll start to see a little bit of the seasonal build that happens normally and interconnect primarily within the smartphone space.

    不,你已經遍歷了這些片段。因此,工業領域,我們仍然預計工業領域整體將繼續走強。互連和半順序之間有一點翻轉。因此,您將開始看到一些正常發生的季節性構建,並且主要在智能手機領域進行互連。

  • And then we actually see a little bit of sequential deceleration in semi from Q1 to Q2, really a function of what Ed had mentioned earlier, on one of the larger customers, overbuilding in Q1 and then pulling back in Q2. But net-net, there's not a material change in revenue for the total company or E&I from Q1 to Q2.

    然後我們實際上看到從第一季度到第二季度的半連續減速,這實際上是 Ed 之前提到的一個較大客戶的函數,在第一季度過度建設,然後在第二季度撤回。但是淨淨,從第一季度到第二季度,整個公司或 E&I 的收入沒有重大變化。

  • Joshua David Spector - Equity Research Associate - Chemicals

    Joshua David Spector - Equity Research Associate - Chemicals

  • Okay. I appreciate that. And I guess kind of following up on a prior question, is this all -- this recovery in semis pushes out again another quarter? You had $200 million sales, kind of $100 million EBITDA cut. You talked about some production kind of realignment. If this were to push forward again or push out again, would there be any difference in the decrement that we should expect, either due to price/cost or anything else that would maybe be an additional lever you consider?

    好的。我很感激。而且我想有點跟進先前的問題,這就是全部 - 半決賽的這種複蘇再次推出了另一個季度?你有 2 億美元的銷售額,相當於 1 億美元的 EBITDA 削減。你談到了某種生產調整。如果這是再次向前推進或再次推出,我們應該預期的減量是否會有所不同,無論是由於價格/成本還是您認為可能是額外槓桿的任何其他因素?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I mean we would -- so right now, we expect that, that headwind that we'll see in the first half of around $90 million from pulling back production in E&I not being there in Q3 and Q4 in the second half. And so if this recovery extends into the fourth quarter, then you would expect that $45 million to recur again in the third quarter.

    是的。我的意思是我們會 - 所以現在,我們預計,我們將在上半年看到約 9000 萬美元的逆風,因為 E&I 的生產將在下半年的第三季度和第四季度出現。因此,如果這種複甦延續到第四季度,那麼您預計第三季度將再次出現 4500 萬美元。

  • The one caveat that we will make that we don't have baked into the guide to that could offset any decremental weakness if the recovery is pushed out is that price/cost piece. So we don't have anything material baked in that could become a tailwind to the second half based on what we see right now -- versus what we see right now.

    我們將提出的一個警告是,我們沒有將其納入指南,如果復蘇被推遲,這可能會抵消任何遞減的弱點,那就是價格/成本部分。因此,根據我們現在看到的情況——與我們現在看到的情況相比,我們沒有任何材料可以成為下半年的順風。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts from Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Roberts。

  • John Ezekiel E. Roberts - Research Analyst

    John Ezekiel E. Roberts - Research Analyst

  • Health care alone now is going to be almost the same size as Shelter Solutions. So do you create a reportable health care segment and move the rest of safety into industrial? Or do you put Spectrum into a larger safety segment where healthcare will be about 40% of the safety segment?

    現在,僅醫療保健一項的規模就幾乎與 Shelter Solutions 一樣大。那麼,您是否創建了一個可報告的醫療保健細分市場並將其餘的安全轉移到工業領域?或者您是否將 Spectrum 放入更大的安全部分,其中醫療保健將佔安全部分的 40% 左右?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes, John, it's something we've been looking at how to report it. It's interesting. Yes, healthcare will be 10% of the portfolio now. The water business, by the way, is developed into 10% of the portfolio. I think both really nice, good secular end markets for us over the coming years at higher growth rates, obviously, both of those. So we'll take a look at that. We don't -- we'll probably look at it as we enter 2024 to see if we do anything, but no decision on that yet.

    是的,約翰,這是我們一直在研究如何報告的問題。這真有趣。是的,醫療保健現在將佔投資組合的 10%。順便說一句,水務業務已發展到投資組合的 10%。我認為在未來幾年內,這兩個市場對我們來說都是非常好的、良好的長期終端市場,而且增長率更高,顯然,這兩個市場。所以我們來看看。我們不會——我們可能會在進入 2024 年時查看它,看看我們是否會做任何事情,但目前還沒有決定。

  • John Ezekiel E. Roberts - Research Analyst

    John Ezekiel E. Roberts - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then on the delay in electronics, do you have any long lead time orders that actually show an inflection in demand yet?

    好的。然後關於電子產品的延遲,您是否有任何實際顯示需求變化的長交貨期訂單?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • No, because it's a short cycle business. So you can't really -- we'll have a little bit of lift as Lori said in the ICS business. And that's typical for us. As you said, you're going into the holiday season later in the year, so we start our shipments. And you can see one of our charts. Just the smartphone piece alone picks up in third, fourth quarter there. So we begin shipments there. But past that, it's first cycle business, and we'll see it and we'll ship it pretty quick.

    不會,因為這是一個短週期的業務。所以你真的不能——正如 Lori 在 ICS 業務中所說的那樣,我們會有所提升。這對我們來說很典型。正如您所說,您將在今年晚些時候進入假期,所以我們開始發貨。你可以看到我們的一張圖表。僅智能手機產品在第三、第四季度就出現了增長。所以我們在那裡開始發貨。但在那之後,這是第一個週期業務,我們會看到它,我們會很快發貨。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from BOA.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BOA 的 Steve Byrne。

  • Stephen V. Byrne - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Stephen V. Byrne - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Yes, I just wanted to ask about your water treatment growth. Would you say that it's being driven more by the treatment of water for consumption or for wastewater discharge? And are you seeing any increased demand for both of those buckets due to foreign-aided compounds, either from EPA's drinking water standards that are underway or EPA scrutiny on any company that's using a foreign-aided material?

    是的,我只是想問問你們的水處理增長情況。你會說它更多地是由消費水或廢水排放的水處理驅動的嗎?你是否看到由於外援化合物對這兩種水桶的需求增加,無論是來自 EPA 正在製定的飲用水標準,還是 EPA 對任何使用外援材料的公司的審查?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • No. I mean so the growth we have seen would be more on the industrial side. The business is about 70% favored towards industrial wastewater treatment. So that's what's driving the growth. There's nothing material that we're seeing with respect to any groundwater remediation that's coming out from the EPA.

    不,我的意思是我們看到的增長更多是在工業方面。該業務約有 70% 受到工業廢水處理的青睞。這就是推動增長的原因。我們沒有看到關於 EPA 提出的任何地下水修復的任何材料。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Okay. Remember, Steve, 70% of that business is recurring. We're replacing membranes and all at these industrial sites. And it's just a secular trend that should continue because, including DuPont, we're all working on that for our ESG targets. And it's besides greenhouse gas emissions, it's the other big one.

    好的。記住,史蒂夫,70% 的業務是經常性的。我們正在更換膜和所有這些工業場所。這只是一個應該持續的長期趨勢,因為包括杜邦在內,我們都在為我們的 ESG 目標而努力。除了溫室氣體排放,這是另一個大問題。

  • Stephen V. Byrne - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Stephen V. Byrne - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • And then one on shelter. Clearly, it's going through a cyclical downturn, but just curious about your longer-term view on Shelter Solutions. Is it likely to remain a core business for you?

    然後一個在避難所。顯然,它正在經歷週期性低迷,但只是想知道您對 Shelter Solutions 的長期看法。它可能仍然是您的核心業務嗎?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • No, it's a core business for us. I remember a very key component of that is our Tyvek franchise, which is a very nice margin business for us against all of the end markets that we service with Tyvek, including the construction market. Obviously, Lori mentioned a really nice market for that is medical packaging. So it's definitely part of the portfolio.

    不,這是我們的核心業務。我記得其中一個非常關鍵的組成部分是我們的 Tyvek 特許經營權,對於我們與 Tyvek 服務的所有終端市場,包括建築市場,這對我們來說是一項非常好的利潤業務。顯然,Lori 提到了一個非常好的市場是醫療包裝。所以它絕對是投資組合的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of John McNulty from BMO Capital.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital 的 John McNulty。

  • John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

    John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

  • So on the topic of raw materials, I know what you said is in the guide. I guess I'm curious, in terms of the raw material basket that you're buying today, acknowledging it takes some time to work through the P&L, can you help us to understand how much that might be down from the peak and how we should be thinking about that?

    所以關於原材料的話題,我知道你在指南中說的。我想我很好奇,就您今天購買的原材料籃子而言,承認需要一些時間來計算損益表,您能幫助我們了解它可能比峰值下降多少以及我們如何應該考慮那個?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So we saw around $800 million of escalation last year. It was about 60% raws and the rest, roughly between logistics and energy. We are seeing deceleration on the logistics and the energy side. So obviously, you can look at European and U.S. natural gas and see there's been a sizable pullback there and the ocean freight rates we're seeing tailwinds as well. And so that's where we're seeing most of the deceleration. I wouldn't say we've seen a material amount thus far on the raw material side either on both the bulk buy or on the tail spend. So that's the upside as we head into the rest of the year is when we start to see an inflection in the raw material buying.

    是的。因此,去年我們看到了大約 8 億美元的升級。大約 60% 是原材料,其餘的大致介於物流和能源之間。我們看到物流和能源方面正在減速。很明顯,你可以看看歐洲和美國的天然氣,發現那裡出現了相當大的回落,我們也看到了海運費率。這就是我們看到大部分減速的地方。我不會說到目前為止,無論是在大宗採購還是在尾部支出上,我們都在原材料方面看到了實質性的數量。因此,當我們進入今年剩餘時間時,這就是我們開始看到原材料購買出現拐點的時候。

  • John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

    John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

  • Okay. So you haven't -- actually, you're not buying them lower now. So that's to come, and then it still has to work through the P&L, is that right?

    好的。所以你沒有——實際上,你現在並沒有以較低的價格購買它們。所以那是要來的,然後它仍然必須通過損益表來工作,對嗎?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, yes. Correct.

    是的是的。正確的。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • I think, John, it's important to note that there are individual raw materials where we would be buying at lower prices, but there are others that have maintained an inflation curve. And there are a lot of things that we buy that are very supply driven in terms of the dynamic and it could take quite a while to kind of unlock any kind of relief there.

    我認為,約翰,重要的是要注意,我們會以較低的價格購買個別原材料,但還有其他原材料保持了通貨膨脹曲線。我們購買的很多東西在動態方面都非常受供應驅動,可能需要相當長的時間才能在那裡釋放任何一種緩解措施。

  • Even if you take a really basic benchmark price and suggest that, that could be down already today, so there are puts and takes within the portfolio. But I think the punchline here is that there's well less than $100 million of net benefit in the model that we have today. And that's inclusive of some of the savings that Lori referenced from logistics and energy. But netting out as we go through the year later, some potential give back that could be necessary. So there really isn't that much in there. And yes, I suppose that could present an opportunity as we look forward, but we haven't seen a lot of benefit come through today.

    即使你採用一個非常基本的基準價格並建議,它今天可能已經下跌,所以投資組合中有看跌期權和看跌期權。但我認為這裡的重點是我們今天擁有的模型的淨收益遠低於 1 億美元。這包括 Lori 從物流和能源中引用的一些節省。但是,隨著我們在一年後進行淨額計算,一些潛在的回饋可能是必要的。所以里面真的沒有那麼多。是的,我想這可能會在我們期待的時候提供一個機會,但我們今天還沒有看到很多好處。

  • John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

    John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. Fair enough. And then just one question on the acquisition. So the growth rate from 2019 to 2023 of 12% is a pretty chunky number. But at the same time, if memory recalls, like during the COVID period, medical device demand was actually pretty soft. You had -- didn't have a whole lot of access to surgical suite. So is that 12% understated in your mind? Or is that kind of a fair run rate in this just -- based on the specific products they make, maybe it didn't have that pressure that maybe some others in medical devices did? How should we be thinking about that?

    知道了。好的。很公平。然後只有一個關於收購的問題。因此,從 2019 年到 2023 年 12% 的增長率是一個相當大的數字。但與此同時,如果回憶起來,就像在 COVID 期間一樣,醫療設備需求實際上非常疲軟。你有——沒有太多機會進入手術室。那麼在您看來,這 12% 是否被低估了?或者這只是一種公平的運行率 - 基於他們生產的特定產品,也許它沒有像醫療設備中的其他一些人那樣的壓力?我們應該如何思考?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I mean it wouldn't have had the same magnitude of pressure as some of the other providers into the elective surgery. So it's selling into the nonelective types, so kind of more the essential surgery. So wouldn't have seen that as significant of a COVID headwind. So I would say the 12% CAGR that we saw from '19 to '23 would be too materially awesome where we see it going forward. We see it a little bit decelerating to the high single-digit range, but still a really nice growth for us.

    是的。我的意思是它不會像其他一些提供者那樣承受擇期手術的壓力。所以它賣給非選擇性類型,所以更多的是基本手術。因此,不會將其視為 COVID 逆風的重要因素。所以我想說我們從 19 年到 23 年看到的 12% 的複合年增長率在我們看到它前進的地方太棒了。我們看到它有點減速到高個位數範圍,但對我們來說仍然是一個非常好的增長。

  • And then, obviously, really nice growth in 2023 on the back of already underlying strong volume as well as they had some sizable new customer wins that are in the process of ramping and really get to a nice clip as we head into the back half of 2023 as well.

    然後,很明顯,在已經潛在的強勁銷量的支持下,他們在 2023 年實現了非常好的增長,而且他們贏得了一些相當大的新客戶,這些客戶正在逐步增加,並且在我們進入 2023 年的後半部分時確實取得了不錯的成績2023年也是如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

  • David L. Begleiter - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    David L. Begleiter - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • Ed, do you have an update on PFAS and the MDL ahead of the upcoming trial in Florida?

    Ed,在佛羅里達州即將進行的試驗之前,您是否有關於 PFAS 和 MDL 的最新消息?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes. So the trial comes up in about a month out now, David. And I'll just say, we've been talking pretty regularly with the plaintiffs. As I've mentioned last quarter, the judge did a point in mediator who, by the way, is very actively involved with these regular conversations we're having. So we're feeling positive, but I'll leave it at that right now.

    是的。大衛,審判將在大約一個月後進行。我只想說,我們一直在定期與原告交談。正如我在上個季度提到的那樣,法官在調解員中提出了一個觀點,順便說一下,調解員非常積極地參與了我們正在進行的這些定期對話。所以我們感覺很積極,但我現在就把它留在那兒。

  • David L. Begleiter - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    David L. Begleiter - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. And can you provide a little more color on the weakness you're seeing in North American construction, resi versus non-resi and any destocking that's still ongoing in that space?

    知道了。你能否提供更多關於你在北美建築中看到的弱點的顏色,resi 與非 resi 以及該領域仍在進行的任何去庫存?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. We saw pretty similar volume declines across all 3 end markets. So do-it-yourself residential and commercial markets. And reminder, just on the exposure in commercial, it's more so on like the health care and education side versus large commercial construction in downtown cities. And so we saw a similar performance from a volume deceleration in all 3. We don't have a material pickup in 2023 plan for those markets. So we'll see how they continue to perform, but we don't see an inflection like we do in electronics and construction in general.

    是的。我們看到所有 3 個終端市場的銷量下降非常相似。自己動手的住宅和商業市場也是如此。提醒一下,就商業曝光而言,它更像是醫療保健和教育方面,而不是市中心城市的大型商業建築。因此,我們從這三個市場的銷量減速中看到了類似的表現。我們沒有針對這些市場的 2023 年材料回升計劃。因此,我們將看到它們如何繼續表現,但我們不會像一般的電子和建築行業那樣看到拐點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

  • Arun Shankar Viswanathan - Senior Equity Analyst

    Arun Shankar Viswanathan - Senior Equity Analyst

  • So just looking at the full year guidance of $3.05 billion of EBITDA at the midpoint and your Q2 of $715 million , that would imply that your second half is around $1.62 billion and your first half is around $1.43 billion. So that $190 million uplift or $200 million almost uplift when you look at first half to second half, is that mainly the comps getting easier on the volume side for E&I? Are there any other special items we should kind of consider when we think about that cadence?

    因此,只要看看中點 30.5 億美元的全年 EBITDA 指導和 7.15 億美元的第二季度,這就意味著你的下半年約為 16.2 億美元,上半年約為 14.3 億美元。因此,當您查看上半年到下半年時,1.9 億美元的提升或幾乎 2 億美元的提升,主要是 E&I 在數量方面的補償變得更容易了嗎?當我們考慮這種節奏時,還有什麼其他的特殊項目是我們應該考慮的嗎?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I mean it's mostly within E&I that lift, and it's going to be more favored to Q4 versus Q3 as you look at the slides that we presented on both the smartphone and the semi MSI side. So most of it is that anticipated second half recovery. There is a little bit of seasonality that would play into a first half versus second half comp. But most of it is the electronics recovery. And as I had mentioned, a little bit more favored to Q4 versus Q3.

    是的。我的意思是,這主要是在 E&I 中提升的,當您查看我們在智能手機和半 MSI 方面展示的幻燈片時,第四季度比第三季度更受青睞。所以大部分是預期的下半年復蘇。上半場和下半場比賽會有一些季節性因素。但其中大部分是電子產品的複蘇。正如我所提到的,與第三季度相比,第四季度更受青睞。

  • Arun Shankar Viswanathan - Senior Equity Analyst

    Arun Shankar Viswanathan - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And just one quicker one on M&A. So you guys have now reentered the market with the Spectrum acquisition. Would you say that the portfolio transformation is now kind of complete? And -- or are you still considering other opportunities within the 5 markets that you've been looking at?

    好的。還有一篇關於併購的更快的文章。所以你們現在已經通過收購 Spectrum 重新進入市場。你會說投資組合轉型現在已經完成了嗎?並且 - 或者您是否仍在考慮您一直在尋找的 5 個市場中的其他機會?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • You're never, I guess, complete, but I would summarize it. Yes, we feel like we're complete for a period of time here. We like where we're at. This was the last piece we were looking at. And so I don't see anything over the next, like, year or just against the time period. I think we like where the portfolio is at. We just want to operationally run it well.

    我猜你永遠不會完整,但我會總結一下。是的,我們覺得我們在這裡已經完成了一段時間。我們喜歡我們所在的位置。這是我們正在看的最後一塊。因此,我看不到接下來的任何事情,例如一年或僅針對該時間段。我認為我們喜歡投資組合所在的位置。我們只想在操作上很好地運行它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from the line of Mike Sison from Wells Fargo.

    我們的最後一個問題來自富國銀行的 Mike Sison。

  • Michael Joseph Sison - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Michael Joseph Sison - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • In terms of Spectrum, is there a pretty big runway in terms of other acquisitions there? You sort of exited plastics, you're back into plastics, and I get it, health care is so much better end market. But is this an opportunity to build a pretty big plastics health care unit over time?

    就 Spectrum 而言,在其他收購方面是否有相當大的跑道?你有點退出塑料,你又回到塑料,我明白了,醫療保健是更好的終端市場。但隨著時間的推移,這是建立一個相當大的塑料醫療保健單位的機會嗎?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • There's definitely more you could add to it. And again, we like it secularly, so that's why we've kind of doubled down in this area. But remember, we have a lot of opportunity between what we already had and what they had. So we really like it because of that. So yes, there's other opportunities down the road. But it's just like the [layer go]. We want to get this in. We want to get it synergized. We want to get it really humming with our business. So over the next year, that's what we'll be focused on.

    您肯定可以添加更多內容。再一次,我們長期喜歡它,所以這就是我們在這個領域加倍努力的原因。但請記住,在我們已經擁有的和他們擁有的之間,我們有很多機會。因此,我們真的很喜歡它。所以是的,還有其他機會。但這就像[層去]。我們想把它放進去。我們想讓它協同起來。我們想讓它真正融入我們的業務。所以在接下來的一年裡,這就是我們將關注的重點。

  • Michael Joseph Sison - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Michael Joseph Sison - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Then just a quick follow-up, when I take a look at Slide 14, is inventory destocking end in 2Q? And even if the third quarter isn't that much of an improvement sequentially, E&I's results could improve if the destocking is sort of done.

    然後快速跟進,當我看幻燈片 14 時,庫存去庫存是否在第二季度結束?即使第三季度環比沒有太大改善,如果去庫存完成,E&I 的業績也可能會有所改善。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. We do see the destocking moderating in Q2, yes. So it peaked kind of in the 1Q, 2Q time frame and then we see it pulling off a bit in Q3, Q4.

    是的。我們確實看到第二季度去庫存放緩,是的。所以它在第一季度、第二季度的時間框架內達到頂峰,然後我們看到它在第三季度、第四季度有所下降。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Chris Mecray for closing remarks.

    我現在想把電話轉給 Chris Mecray 作結束語。

  • Christopher H. Mecray - VP of IR

    Christopher H. Mecray - VP of IR

  • Yes. Thank you, everyone, for joining our call. And for your reference, a copy of our transcript will be posted on our website. And this concludes the call. Thank you.

    是的。謝謝大家加入我們的電話會議。為了您的參考,我們的成績單副本將發佈在我們的網站上。通話到此結束。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝你們,女士們,先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。