杜邦 (DD) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the DuPont Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

早上好。我叫 Rob，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加杜邦 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）謝謝。

Chris Mecray, Vice President, Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

投資者關係副總裁 Chris Mecray，您可以開始您的會議了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for DuPont's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me today are Ed Breen, Chief Executive Officer; and Lori Koch, Chief Financial Officer.

早上好，感謝您參加杜邦公司 2022 年第四季度和全年財務業績電話會議。今天加入我的是首席執行官 Ed Breen；和首席財務官 Lori Koch。

We have prepared slides to supplement our remarks, which are posted on DuPont's website under the Investor Relations tab and through the webcast link. Please read the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the slides.

我們準備了幻燈片來補充我們的評論，這些幻燈片發佈在杜邦網站的“投資者關係”選項卡下並通過網絡廣播鏈接發布。請閱讀幻燈片中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations or predictions about the future. Because these statements are based on current assumptions and factors that involve risks and uncertainties, our actual performance and results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Our Form 10-K, as updated by our current and periodic reports, includes detailed discussion of principal risks and uncertainties which may cause such differences.

在此次電話會議中，我們將就我們對未來的期望或預測做出前瞻性陳述。由於這些陳述基於當前的假設和因素，涉及風險和不確定性，我們的實際業績和結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。我們的 10-K 表格由我們的當前和定期報告更新，包括對可能導致此類差異的主要風險和不確定性的詳細討論。

Unless otherwise specified, all historical financial measures presented today exclude significant items. We will also refer to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is included in our press release and has been posted to DuPont's Investor Relations website.

除非另有說明，否則今天提出的所有歷史財務指標均不包括重要項目。我們還將參考非 GAAP 措施。我們的新聞稿中包含與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，並已發佈在杜邦的投資者關係網站上。

I'll now turn the call over to Ed.

我現在將電話轉給埃德。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial review. We posted strong quarterly top and bottom line results, in line with our previously communicated guidance in an uneven global economy.

早上好，感謝您加入我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年財務審查。我們發布了強勁的季度頂線和底線結果，符合我們之前在不平衡的全球經濟中傳達的指導意見。

Fourth quarter revenue included a 5% organic growth versus the year-ago period. Strong volume in water and auto adhesives as well as ongoing strength in industrial end markets, such as health care and aerospace, helped mitigate volume declines in consumer electronics end markets and softening conditions in North American construction markets.

第四季度收入與去年同期相比有機增長 5%。水和汽車粘合劑的強勁銷量以及醫療保健和航空航天等工業終端市場的持續走強有助於緩解消費電子終端市場的銷量下降和北美建築市場的疲軟狀況。

Strong pricing growth in the quarter reflects actions taken largely prior to the fourth quarter to offset persistent inflationary pressures in raw materials, logistics and energy. We sold over $800 million in year-over-year inflation headwinds for full year 2022.

本季度強勁的價格增長反映了主要在第四季度之前為抵消原材料、物流和能源領域持續的通脹壓力而採取的行動。我們在 2022 年全年的同比通脹逆風中賣出了超過 8 億美元。

We delivered year-over-year operating EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter despite a slight volume decline, currency headwinds and the impact of portfolio divestitures. We also saw a margin improvement of 120 basis points, demonstrating solid operational execution, and focused on items we can control within the highly diverse end markets where we participate.

儘管銷量略有下降、貨幣逆風和投資組合剝離的影響，但我們在第四季度實現了營業 EBITDA 的同比增長。我們還看到利潤率提高了 120 個基點，展示了穩健的運營執行力，並專注於我們可以在我們參與的高度多樣化的終端市場中控制的項目。

The closing of the M&M sale was a milestone event in the fourth quarter and our last contemplated large-scale divestiture. The transaction further transforms our portfolio to concentrate in more stable, secular, higher-growth and higher-margin end markets.

M&M 出售的結束是第四季度的一個里程碑事件，也是我們最後一次計劃的大規模資產剝離。該交易進一步改變了我們的投資組合，以專注於更穩定、長期、更高增長和更高利潤的終端市場。

As you can see on Slide 4, our transformation actions have significantly strengthened our balance sheet, increased our financial flexibility and positioned the company to continue to generate shareholder value through disciplined capital allocation.

正如您在幻燈片 4 中看到的那樣，我們的轉型行動顯著加強了我們的資產負債表，增加了我們的財務靈活性，並使公司能夠通過有紀律的資本分配繼續創造股東價值。

Following the M&M sale, we acted quickly in accelerating return of capital to shareholders. We authorized a new $5 billion share repurchase program in November and launched an accelerated share repurchase transaction worth $3.25 billion of common stock, allowing the retirement of about 39 million common shares in the fourth quarter. We anticipate completing this ASR in the third quarter of 2023 and plan to execute share repurchases under the planned remaining authorization as soon as we can.

在出售 M&M 之後，我們迅速採取行動，加速向股東返還資本。我們在 11 月批准了一項新的 50 億美元股票回購計劃，並啟動了價值 32.5 億美元普通股的加速股票回購交易，允許在第四季度退役約 3900 萬股普通股。我們預計在 2023 年第三季度完成此 ASR，併計劃盡快根據計劃的剩餘授權執行股份回購。

In the quarter, we also retired $2.5 billion of long-term debt, which is due to mature in November 2023, and reduced our commercial paper balance to 0 as of year-end. The long-term debt retirement reduced refinancing risk and generated pretax annualized interest expense savings of approximately $100 million.

在本季度，我們還償還了 25 億美元的長期債務，這些債務將於 2023 年 11 月到期，並將我們的商業票據余額在年底減少到 0。長期債務退休降低了再融資風險，並產生了約 1 億美元的稅前年化利息支出節省。

We also announced today an increase in our quarterly dividend of $0.36 per share or a 9% increase versus last year. Going forward, we continue to target a dividend payout ratio of between 35% and 45% and expect to increase our dividend annually alongside earnings growth.

我們今天還宣布將季度股息提高至每股 0.36 美元，或比去年增加 9%。展望未來，我們繼續將派息率定為 35% 至 45% 之間的目標，並期望隨著收益增長每年增加股息。

In total, we deployed more than $7.5 billion of capital in 2022 through significant share repurchases, deleveraging and dividend payments, which reflects our overall balanced capital allocation strategy. We exited the year in a favorable balance sheet and liquidity position, and we look to further allocate excess capital over time to maximize value creation through both opportunistic M&A and incremental share repurchases.

總的來說，我們在 2022 年通過大量股票回購、去槓桿化和派息支付了超過 75 億美元的資本，這反映了我們整體平衡的資本配置戰略。我們以有利的資產負債表和流動性狀況結束了這一年，我們希望隨著時間的推移進一步分配過剩資本，以通過機會性併購和增量股票回購最大限度地創造價值。

Our M&A focus remains on targets that fit within our growth pillars and are aligned with key secular growth trends that we have highlighted. Further, our disciplined approach to portfolio management will ensure that DuPont focuses on growing businesses where we are the best strategic owner.

我們的併購重點仍然放在符合我們增長支柱的目標上，並與我們強調的主要長期增長趨勢保持一致。此外，我們嚴格的投資組合管理方法將確保杜邦專注於我們是最佳戰略所有者的成長型業務。

Regarding the Delrin sale process, we continue to advance our internal work required to divest the business. We are being prudent with the deal process to ensure suitable market conditions and still expect to have a completed sale in 2023.

關於 Delrin 出售流程，我們將繼續推進剝離業務所需的內部工作。我們對交易過程持謹慎態度，以確保合適的市場條件，並仍預計將在 2023 年完成銷售。

Finally, we also continue to invest internally in innovation and incremental operating capacity to fuel and support our organic growth. In 2023, we expect to allocate CapEx at about 5% of sales as we wrap up some larger-scale projects this year, and we target R&D spending at about 4% of sales on a consolidated basis longer term, investing differentially within our business lines based on growth potential.

最後，我們還繼續在內部投資於創新和增加運營能力，以推動和支持我們的有機增長。到 2023 年，我們預計在今年結束一些更大規模的項目時將資本支出分配到銷售額的 5% 左右，我們的長期目標是研發支出佔銷售額的 4% 左右，在我們的業務線內進行差異化投資基於增長潛力。

Turning to Slide 5. Before I hand it over to Lori, I want to thank our teams who remain focused on operational execution in a difficult environment, which allowed us to produce solid revenue and earnings growth this past year. I also want to thank our teams for the continued efforts made during 2022 in transforming our portfolio.

轉到幻燈片 5。在我將其交給 Lori 之前，我要感謝我們的團隊，他們在困難的環境中仍然專注於運營執行，這使我們在過去一年中實現了穩健的收入和盈利增長。我還要感謝我們的團隊在 2022 年為轉變我們的產品組合所做的持續努力。

We are excited about the longer-term growth potential of our business in its newly constituted form, centered around the secular high-growth pillars of electronics, water, protection, industrial technologies and next-generation automotive. Our end market mix is notably tilted towards electronics at about 1/3 of our portfolio.

我們對以電子、水、保護、工業技術和下一代汽車等長期高增長支柱為中心的新業務形式的長期增長潛力感到興奮。我們的終端市場組合明顯傾向於電子產品，約占我們產品組合的 1/3。

Within electronics, we have a key presence in consumer-based end markets, namely chips, films, displays and printed circuit board materials used in smartphones, PCs and tablets. The bulk of our remaining electronics exposure is in areas such as data centers and telecommunications as well as industrial and automotive applications, primarily consumables used in the semiconductor chip manufacturing process.

在電子產品領域，我們在以消費者為基礎的終端市場佔有重要地位，即用於智能手機、個人電腦和平板電腦的芯片、薄膜、顯示器和印刷電路板材料。我們剩餘的大部分電子產品暴露在數據中心和電信以及工業和汽車應用等領域，主要是半導體芯片製造過程中使用的消耗品。

Despite short-term volume pressure, we are pleased with our electronics market position and confident this exposure will help generate strong growth over time. Our presence in electronics is enviable with higher margins versus the company average and a solid competitive position across the key products we supply.

儘管存在短期銷量壓力，但我們對我們的電子市場地位感到滿意，並相信這種敞口將有助於隨著時間的推移實現強勁增長。我們在電子產品領域的存在令人羨慕，利潤率高於公司平均水平，並且在我們提供的主要產品中具有穩固的競爭地位。

Likewise, our water business at 12% of our portfolio operates in markets that are expected to grow mid- to high-single digits, driven by the global response to concerns such as water scarcity and circularity.

同樣，在全球對水資源短缺和循環等問題的反應推動下，我們的水業務占我們投資組合的 12%，所處市場預計將實現中高個位數增長。

Additionally, our participation in the auto market at about 13% of sales is much more connected to high-growth advanced technologies, enabling long-term secular trends like hybrid and electric vehicles for items such as battery applications. A solid portion of our other exposure is aligned to EVs, which are growing at a significant pace.

此外，我們在汽車市場的參與度約為銷售額的 13%，這與高增長的先進技術密切相關，從而實現了混合動力和電動汽車等電池應用等項目的長期長期趨勢。我們其他風險敞口的很大一部分與電動汽車相關，電動汽車正在以顯著的速度增長。

Given these and our equally strong market positions in many other end markets, including within our protection and industrial technologies pillars, we believe that our financial results over time will bear out the view that the new DuPont will grow and generate returns on par with the best industrial assets in the public markets.

鑑於這些以及我們在許多其他終端市場中同樣強大的市場地位，包括在我們的保護和工業技術支柱中，我們相信隨著時間的推移，我們的財務業績將證明新杜邦將增長並產生與最佳回報相當的觀點公開市場上的工業資產。

In response to nearer-term, short-cycle end market slowing expected in the first half of 2023, we have been doing scenario planning for some time now and are proactively taking actions within our control to minimize volume impacts on margins. As a result, we expect to be able to show the resiliency of the new DuPont portfolio this year. I look forward to providing you with updates as we progress through 2023.

為了應對 2023 年上半年預期的短期、短週期終端市場放緩，我們已經進行了一段時間的情景規劃，並在我們的控制範圍內積極採取行動，以盡量減少銷量對利潤率的影響。因此，我們預計今年能夠展示新杜邦產品組合的彈性。隨著 2023 年的進展，我期待著為您提供更新。

With that, let me turn it over to Lori to review our financial performance and outlook.

有了這個，讓我把它交給 Lori 來審查我們的財務業績和前景。

Thanks, Ed, and good morning. The quality of our portfolio was highlighted this quarter as strong top line results across the majority of our business lines offset weaker conditions in consumer electronics and construction. The global economy remains challenging, but our team's focus on execution drove solid fourth quarter earnings growth and operating EBITDA margin expansion against the prior year period.

謝謝，埃德，早上好。本季度我們產品組合的質量得到突顯，因為我們大部分業務線的強勁營收業績抵消了消費電子產品和建築業的疲軟狀況。全球經濟仍然充滿挑戰，但我們團隊對執行的關注推動了第四季度盈利的穩健增長和營業 EBITDA 利潤率較上年同期的增長。

Turning to our financial highlights on Slide 6. Fourth quarter net sales of $3.1 billion decreased 4% as reported and increased 5% on an organic basis versus the year-ago period. Global currency volatility resulted in a 5% headwind from U.S. dollar strength against key currencies, most notably the yen, yuan and euro. We also saw a 4% portfolio headwind driven by the impact of noncore divestitures.

轉向我們在幻燈片 6 上的財務亮點。第四季度淨銷售額為 31 億美元，與去年同期相比下降 4%，有機增長 5%。全球貨幣波動導緻美元兌主要貨幣（尤其是日元、人民幣和歐元）走強造成 5% 的逆風。我們還看到 4% 的投資組合逆風受到非核心資產剝離的影響。

Breaking down the 5% organic sales growth, 7% pricing gains were partially offset by 2% volume declines. Continued strength in Water Solutions and over 20% volume gains in auto adhesives were more than offset by further softening in smartphones and personal computing within Interconnect Solutions, a slowdown in semiconductor and construction markets as well as continued lower year-over-year volume from Tyvek protective garments within Safety Solutions.

打破 5% 的有機銷售增長，7% 的定價收益被 2% 的銷量下降部分抵消。水解決方案的持續強勁和汽車粘合劑超過 20% 的銷量增長被互連解決方案中智能手機和個人計算的進一步疲軟、半導體和建築市場的放緩以及 Tyvek 的同比銷量持續下降所抵消安全解決方案中的防護服。

As we exited the year, we saw lower volumes in areas we have highlighted with total December organic sales up 2% year-over-year, including down high single digits in China, driven by acceleration of COVID disruptions, and low single-digit organic sales growth in the U.S. and Canada due to muted demand in construction and destocking by customers.

在我們結束這一年時，我們發現我們強調的地區的銷量有所下降，12 月的有機總銷售額同比增長 2%，包括在 COVID 中斷加速的推動下，中國的高個位數下降，以及低個位數的有機銷售額由於建築需求疲軟和客戶去庫存，美國和加拿大的銷售額增長。

From an earnings perspective, operating EBITDA of $758 million increased 1% versus the year-ago period despite currency headwinds and the impact of portfolio. Organic earnings growth was driven by pricing and disciplined cost control, which more than offset inflationary cost pressure and lower volumes, including the impact of production rates.

從收益的角度來看，儘管存在匯率逆風和投資組合的影響，但營業 EBITDA 為 7.58 億美元，同比增長 1%。有機收益增長是由定價和嚴格的成本控制推動的，這大大抵消了通脹成本壓力和產量下降，包括生產率的影響。

Operating EBITDA margin during the quarter of 24.4% increased 120 basis points versus the year-ago period. Adjusted EPS in the quarter of $0.89 per share increased 16%, which I'll detail shortly. Cash used in operations during the quarter of $126 million, less capital expenditures of $185 million and transaction-related adjustments totaling $213 million resulted in a free cash outflow of $98 million.

本季度的營業 EBITDA 利潤率為 24.4%，與去年同期相比增加了 120 個基點。本季度調整後的每股收益為 0.89 美元，增長了 16%，我將在稍後詳細說明。本季度運營中使用的現金為 1.26 億美元，減去 1.85 億美元的資本支出和總計 2.13 億美元的交易相關調整導致自由現金流出 9800 萬美元。

The transaction-related adjustments consist of $163 million termination fee related to the intended Rogers acquisition, with the remainder from a tax prepayment for the M&M divestiture. Further headwinds to free cash flow during the quarter included transaction costs related to closing the M&M deal of about $200 million and an approximately $100 million cash outflow related to prepaid accounts payable in advance of the M&M deal closing, which was subsequently reimbursed to us at closing and reported as an inflow within investing activities.

與交易相關的調整包括 1.63 億美元的與羅傑斯收購計劃相關的終止費，其餘部分來自 M&M 資產剝離的預繳稅款。本季度自由現金流的進一步不利因素包括與完成 M&M 交易相關的交易成本約 2 億美元，以及與 M&M 交易完成前應付預付賬款相關的約 1 億美元現金流出，這些預付賬款隨後在交易結束時償還給我們並報告為投資活動中的流入。

I call out these items to provide visibility into our underlying cash flow performance. Additionally, free cash flow included a working capital benefit during the quarter of about $120 million related to inventory reductions, resulting both from our productivity efforts and from our decision to slow production in certain lines of business given the lower volume environment.

我調出這些項目是為了提供對我們潛在現金流量表現的可見性。此外，自由現金流包括本季度與庫存減少相關的約 1.2 億美元的營運資本收益，這既是由於我們努力提高生產力，也是由於我們決定在較低的產量環境下放慢某些業務線的生產。

Turning to Slide 7. Adjusted EPS for the quarter of $0.89 per share increased 16% compared to $0.77 per share in the year-ago period. The strong EPS growth came primarily from below-the-line items as organic earnings from our ongoing businesses were mostly offset by the absence of earnings from noncore divestitures as well as currency headwinds. Ongoing share repurchase continues to drive earnings per share growth, providing a [$0.07] benefit to adjusted EPS.

轉到幻燈片 7。與去年同期的每股 0.77 美元相比，本季度調整後的每股收益為 0.89 美元，增長了 16%。強勁的每股收益增長主要來自線下項目，因為我們正在進行的業務的有機收益大部分被缺乏非核心業務資產剝離的收益以及貨幣逆風所抵消。正在進行的股票回購繼續推動每股收益增長，為調整後的每股收益帶來 [0.07 美元] 收益。

Lower net interest expense provided a $0.05 benefit to adjusted EPS, driven by both interest income resulting from additional cash on hand from the M&M divestiture and also lower interest expense resulting from the paydown of $2.5 billion of senior notes during the quarter.

較低的淨利息支出為調整後的每股收益帶來了 0.05 美元的收益，這是由於 M&M 資產剝離帶來的額外現金帶來的利息收入，以及本季度償還 25 億美元優先票據導致的利息支出下降。

Our tax rate for the quarter was 22.2%, up notably from 18.6% in the year-ago period, resulting in a $0.06 tax headwind to adjusted EPS, driven primarily by geographic mix of earnings and currency. Our full year base tax rate for 2022 was 23.2%, and our 2023 outlook assumes a base tax rate in the range of 23% to 24%.

我們本季度的稅率為 22.2%，顯著高於去年同期的 18.6%，導致調整後的每股收益出現 0.06 美元的稅收逆風，這主要是由收入和貨幣的地域組合驅動的。我們 2022 年的全年基本稅率為 23.2%，我們 2023 年的展望假設基本稅率在 23% 至 24% 之間。

Turning to Slide 8. Just to note a few metrics on a full year basis, net sales of $13 billion in 2022 increased 4% for the full year. On an organic basis, full year sales increased 8% due to a 7% increase in price and a 1% increase in volume. W&P and E&I delivered organic sales growth of 11% and 5%, respectively, and net sales in all 4 regions increased organically.

轉到幻燈片 8。只需注意一些全年指標，2022 年的淨銷售額為 130 億美元，全年增長 4%。在有機的基礎上，由於價格上漲 7% 和銷量增加 1%，全年銷售額增長了 8%。 W&P 和 E&I 分別實現了 11% 和 5% 的有機銷售額增長，所有 4 個地區的淨銷售額都實現了有機增長。

Further, we delivered high single digits or better organic sales growth in 5 of our 6 lines of business as well as in the retained businesses within corporate, led by auto adhesives. Interconnect Solutions was the only business line down organically due to the slowdown in smartphones and personal computing since last summer.

此外，我們在 6 個業務線中的 5 個以及以汽車膠粘劑為首的公司內部保留業務實現了高個位數或更好的有機銷售增長。自去年夏天以來，由於智能手機和個人計算的放緩，互連解決方案是唯一有機下滑的業務線。

Full year operating EBITDA of $3.26 billion increased 3% due primarily to volume gains as pricing gains were mostly offset by continued pressure associated with higher raw material, logistics and energy costs. Operating EBITDA margin was flat at 25.1%, inclusive of price/cost headwind of about 150 basis points.

全年營業 EBITDA 為 32.6 億美元，增長 3%，這主要是由於銷量增加，因為定價收益大部分被與原材料、物流和能源成本上漲相關的持續壓力所抵消。營業 EBITDA 利潤率持平於 25.1%，包括約 150 個基點的價格/成本逆風。

Full year adjusted EPS of $3.41 per share increased 12% versus 2021. The increase was driven by a lower share count from share repurchases, higher segment earnings and lower net interest expense, which was partially offset by a higher tax rate.

全年調整後每股收益為 3.41 美元，較 2021 年增長 12%。增長的原因是股票回購帶來的股份數量減少、分部收益增加和淨利息支出減少，這部分被更高的稅率所抵消。

Cash flow from operations for the year of $588 million, less capital expenditures of $743 million and transaction-related adjustments totaling $328 million for items that I mentioned earlier resulted in free cash flow for the year of $173 million. Full year [discrete] headwinds included in free cash flow totaled about $650 million, which mainly reflect transaction costs.

當年運營產生的現金流量為 5.88 億美元，減去 7.43 億美元的資本支出和總計 3.28 億美元的交易相關調整（我之前提到的項目）導致當年的自由現金流量為 1.73 億美元。自由現金流中包含的全年[離散]不利因素總計約 6.5 億美元，主要反映交易成本。

Turning to segment results, beginning with E&I on Slide 9. E&I fourth quarter net sales decreased 8% as organic sales declined 2%, along with currency and portfolio headwinds of 5% and 1%, respectively. The organic sales decline reflects a 5% decrease in volume, partially offset by a 3% increase in average price.

轉向部門業績，從幻燈片 9 的 E&I 開始。E&I 第四季度淨銷售額下降 8%，因為有機銷售額下降 2%，同時貨幣和投資組合逆風分別為 5% 和 1%。有機銷售額下降反映出銷量下降 5%，部分被平均價格上漲 3% 所抵消。

The organic sales decrease for E&I was led by a 10% decline in Interconnect Solutions, driven by volume linked to further weakening in smartphone, PC and tablet demand, along with channel inventory destocking and the negative impact of COVID-related disruptions in China.

E&I 的有機銷售額下降是由於互連解決方案下降了 10%，原因是智能手機、個人電腦和平板電腦需求進一步疲軟，以及渠道庫存去庫存和中國 COVID 相關中斷的負面影響。

In Semiconductor Technologies, lower volumes resulted from reduced semi fab utilization rates due to weaker end-market demand along with channel inventory destocking. End-market weakness was seen mainly in smartphones and personal computing.

在半導體技術領域，由於終端市場需求疲軟以及渠道庫存去庫存，半晶圓廠利用率下降導致銷量下降。終端市場的疲軟主要體現在智能手機和個人電腦領域。

In Industrial Solutions, volumes were muted as lower demand in consumer printing and weakness in LED silicones for conventional lighting in China more than offset ongoing strength in broad-based industrial end markets, including Vespel product lines, and aerospace and for applications in health care markets.

在工業解決方案方面，由於消費者印刷需求下降以及中國傳統照明用 LED 有機矽的疲軟，抵消了基礎廣泛的工業終端市場（包括 Vespel 產品線、航空航天和醫療保健市場應用）的持續強勁勢頭，銷量下降.

Operating EBITDA for E&I of $407 million decreased 4% in the quarter as volume declines were partially offset by disciplined cost control with operating EBITDA margin up 150 basis points from the year-ago period.

E&I 的運營 EBITDA 為 4.07 億美元，本季度下降 4%，這是因為銷量下降部分被嚴格的成本控制所抵消，運營 EBITDA 利潤率比去年同期上升了 150 個基點。

For the full year, E&I net sales of $5.9 billion increased 7% versus 2021, up 5% on an organic basis as the portfolio benefit from last year's Laird acquisition was partially offset by currency headwinds. Organic sales growth for the year of 5% consisted of a 3% increase in volume and a 2% increase in price.

全年，E&I 淨銷售額為 59 億美元，比 2021 年增長 7%，有機增長 5%，因為去年收購萊爾德的投資組合收益被貨幣不利因素部分抵消。全年 5% 的有機銷售額增長包括 3% 的銷量增長和 2% 的價格增長。

From a line of business view, organic sales growth was led by Semi Tech, up low double digits; and Industrial Solutions, up high single digits, partially offset by mid-single-digit declines in Interconnect Solutions related to weakness in smartphones and personal computing end markets during the second half of 2022.

從業務線來看，Semi Tech 以低兩位數的速度引領有機銷售額增長；和工業解決方案，增長高個位數，部分被 2022 年下半年與智能手機和個人計算終端市場疲軟相關的互連解決方案的中個位數下降所抵消。

Full year operating EBITDA of $1.8 billion increased 4% as volume gains a full year of earnings associated with the Laird acquisition and higher pricing more than offset inflationary cost pressure and weaker mix in Interconnect.

全年營業 EBITDA 為 18 億美元，增長 4%，這是因為與萊爾德收購相關的全年收益和更高的定價抵消了通貨膨脹成本壓力和 Interconnect 的疲軟組合。

Turning to Slide 10. W&P fourth quarter net sales increased 6% as organic sales growth of 12% was partially offset by a 6% currency headwind. Organic growth reflects broad-based pricing actions taken across the segment to offset cost inflation as WP volumes were flat.

轉到幻燈片 10。由於 12% 的有機銷售額增長被 6% 的貨幣逆風部分抵消，W&P 第四季度淨銷售額增長了 6%。由於 WP 銷量持平，有機增長反映了整個部門為抵消成本通脹而採取的廣泛定價行動。

Organic sales growth was led by Water Solutions, which increased over 20% on strong global demand for water technologies, led by Reverse Osmosis membrane as well as capacity increases and pricing gains. Water continues to be an area of consistent strength with long-term top line growth expectations in the mid- to high-single digits.

有機銷售增長由 Water Solutions 引領，增長超過 20%，原因是全球對水技術的強勁需求（反滲透膜引領）以及產能增加和定價收益。水仍然是一個持續強勁的領域，長期收入增長預期為中高個位數。

Sales for Safety Solutions were up high single digits on an organic basis as pricing actions were somewhat offset by lower Tyvek volumes given the demand shift from garments to other applications and the resulting impact of line changeovers on production efficiency. Excluding the year-over-year garment headwind, total W&P volumes increased approximately 2% in the quarter.

由於需求從服裝轉向其他應用以及生產線轉換對生產效率的影響，Tyvek 銷量的下降在一定程度上抵消了安全解決方案的銷售額有機增長。排除同比服裝不利因素，本季度 W&P 總銷量增長約 2%。

In Shelter Solutions, sales were up high single digits on an organic basis as pricing gains were partially offset by volume declines, primarily in North America construction market.

在 Shelter Solutions 中，由於價格上漲部分被銷量下降所抵消，銷售額有機地增長了個位數，主要是在北美建築市場。

Operating EBITDA for W&P of $360 million increased 11% as pricing actions and disciplined cost control more than offset inflationary cost pressure and currency headwinds with operating EBITDA margin up 100 basis points from the year-ago period.

W&P 的運營 EBITDA 為 3.6 億美元，增長 11%，這是由於定價行動和嚴格的成本控制抵消了通脹成本壓力和貨幣逆風，運營 EBITDA 利潤率比去年同期增長了 100 個基點。

For the full year, W&P net sales of $6 billion increased 7% versus 2021 as organic growth of 11% is partially offset by a 4% currency headwind. Organic sales growth for the year consisted of a 12% increase in price, slightly offset by a 1% volume decline. Excluding the year-over-year garment headwind, total W&P volumes increased 2% for the year.

全年，W&P 淨銷售額為 60 億美元，比 2021 年增長 7%，因為 11% 的有機增長被 4% 的貨幣逆風部分抵消。這一年的有機銷售增長包括 12% 的價格上漲，略微被 1% 的銷量下降所抵消。排除同比服裝不利因素，W&P 總銷量今年增長了 2%。

From a line of business view, organic sales growth was driven by mid-teens growth in Shelter Solutions, low-teens growth in Water Solutions and high-single-digit growth in Safety Solutions. Full year operating EBITDA of $1.4 billion increased 3% as higher pricing and disciplined cost more than offset inflationary cost pressure as well as currency headwinds.

從業務線的角度來看，有機銷售增長是由住房解決方案的中十幾歲增長、水解決方案的低十幾歲增長和安全解決方案的高個位數增長推動的。全年運營 EBITDA 為 14 億美元，增長 3%，這是因為更高的定價和嚴格的成本抵消了通脹成本壓力和貨幣逆風。

I'll close with a few comments on our financial outlook and guidance for 2023 on Slide 11. We expect solid top line growth trends to continue into 2023 in businesses such as water and auto adhesives, as well as stable demand across diversified industrial end markets, including aerospace and health care.

最後，我將在幻燈片 11 上對我們 2023 年的財務展望和指導發表一些評論。我們預計水和汽車膠粘劑等業務的穩定收入增長趨勢將持續到 2023 年，以及多元化工業終端市場的穩定需求，包括航空航天和醫療保健。

We do, however, anticipate lower volumes during the first half of 2023 in consumer electronics and semiconductors, resulting from decreased consumer spending, inventory destocking and COVID-related impacts in China, largely within E&I. We also expect ongoing softness in construction end markets within W&P during 2023.

然而，我們確實預計 2023 年上半年消費電子產品和半導體的銷量將下降，原因是中國消費者支出減少、庫存去庫存和與 COVID 相關的影響，主要是在 E&I 內。我們還預計 2023 年 W&P 的建築終端市場將持續疲軟。

For the first quarter of 2023, we anticipate continued weakness in these consumer-driven, short-cycle end markets, resulting in a first quarter net sales expectation of about $2.9 billion or down mid-single digits on an organic basis versus the year-ago period. As 2023 progresses, we assume stabilization of consumer electronics demand, normalization of customer inventory levels and improved China demand to drive sequential quarterly improvement in operating results, most notably in the second half of the year.

對於 2023 年第一季度，我們預計這些以消費者為導向的短週期終端市場將持續疲軟，導致第一季度淨銷售額預期約為 29 億美元或與去年同期相比有機下降中個位數時期。隨著 2023 年的推進，我們假設消費電子產品需求穩定、客戶庫存水平正常化和中國需求改善將推動經營業績的連續季度改善，尤其是在下半年。

Within the Interconnect Solutions business, where the printed circuit board market has been down since mid-2022, we anticipate that channel destocking and customer production rates will begin to improve during the second quarter. Within Semiconductor Technologies, fab utilization rates are also expected to bottom during the first half of this year and improve around midyear. As a result of these assumptions, coupled with expectation of improvement in China across our product lines, we expect full year 2023 net sales to be between $12.3 billion and $12.9 billion.

在互連解決方案業務中，印刷電路板市場自 2022 年年中以來一直在下滑，我們預計渠道去庫存和客戶生產率將在第二季度開始改善。在 Semiconductor Technologies 內部，晶圓廠利用率預計也將在今年上半年觸底，並在年中前後有所改善。基於這些假設，再加上對我們產品線在中國的改善預期，我們預計 2023 年全年淨銷售額將在 123 億美元至 129 億美元之間。

In response to the expected lower-volume environment, we are focused on minimizing decremental margin impacts. To achieve this, we are focused on the operational levers within our control, including appropriate actions to increase productivity at our plant sites, reduce discretionary spending and realization of savings enabled by cost actions initiated during the fourth quarter.

為了應對預期的低產量環境，我們專注於最大限度地減少利潤率下降的影響。為實現這一目標，我們專注於我們控制範圍內的運營槓桿，包括採取適當行動來提高我們工廠的生產力、減少可自由支配的支出以及通過第四季度啟動的成本行動實現節約。

For first quarter 2023, we expect operating EBITDA of about $710 million. For full year 2023, we expect operating EBITDA to be between $3 billion and $3.3 billion, expecting to hold full year operating EBITDA margin flat at the midpoint of the ranges provided compared to last year. These same midpoints imply a decremental margin of 27% for the full year despite a mix headwind resulting from volume pressure in our higher-margin business, mainly semi.

對於 2023 年第一季度，我們預計運營 EBITDA 約為 7.1 億美元。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計營業 EBITDA 將在 30 億美元至 33 億美元之間，預計全年營業 EBITDA 利潤率與去年相比持平於所提供範圍的中點。這些相同的中點意味著全年利潤率下降 27%，儘管我們利潤率較高的業務（主要是半成品）的銷量壓力帶來了混合逆風。

Our first quarter adjusted EPS expectation of about $0.80 per share and full year adjusted EPS guidance range of between $3.50 and $4 per share assumes continued growth from below-the-line benefits related to a lower share count and lower interest expense. The midpoint of our full year adjusted EPS guidance implies growth of 10% versus last year, driven by these benefits from our ongoing capital allocation strategy.

我們的第一季度調整後每股收益預期約為每股 0.80 美元，全年調整後每股收益指導範圍在 3.50 美元至 4 美元之間，假設與較低的股票數量和較低的利息支出相關的線下收益持續增長。我們全年調整後的每股收益指引的中點意味著比去年增長 10%，這得益於我們持續的資本配置策略帶來的這些好處。

With that, we are pleased to take your questions, and let me turn it back to the operator to open the Q&A.

有了這個，我們很高興回答你的問題，讓我把它轉回給接線員打開問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Let's -- if you don't mind, I'd love to get a little bit more color on the inventory levels. When you think about, I mean, 2 different businesses really with the interconnect and the semiconductor side, but how high did inventories get, meaning kind of how above normal were they? And where would you characterize them today versus where perhaps they were maybe a quarter ago?

讓我們 - 如果你不介意的話，我很樂意在庫存水平上獲得更多的顏色。當您考慮時，我的意思是，互連和半導體方面確實有 2 個不同的業務，但是庫存有多高，這意味著它們比正常水平高出多少？與一個季度前的情況相比，您今天如何描述它們的特徵？

Yes. So on ICS, as Lori had just mentioned, Scott, that started its downturn actually middle of 2022. So that's been going through a downturn. And by the way, it's obviously lower demand. And a lot of that lower demand, by the way, is China-related lower demand because of COVID and lockdowns and all that.

是的。所以在 ICS 上，正如 Lori 剛才提到的，Scott，它實際上是在 2022 年年中開始下滑的。所以它一直在經歷低迷。順便說一句，這顯然是較低的需求。順便說一下，由於 COVID 和封鎖等原因，很多需求下降是與中國相關的需求下降。

And so we have talked to our 10 largest PCB customers, mainly in China, and it looks like they're going to begin their ramp in the second quarter. We're thinking more in the middle of the second quarter. And maybe to give you a couple of numbers behind it, their PCB fabs usually run in the high 70% utilization rate. They've been -- they're all a little bit different, but they've been running kind of between 40% and 60%. And they expect the second half of the second quarter to be kind of up to 60% to 65% and then ramp up from there.

因此，我們已經與主要在中國的 10 家最大 PCB 客戶進行了交談，看起來他們將在第二季度開始量產。我們在第二季度中期考慮更多。也許給你幾個背後的數字，他們的 PCB 工廠通常以 70% 的高利用率運行。他們一直——他們都有點不同，但他們一直在運行 40% 到 60% 之間。他們預計第二季度下半年將達到 60% 至 65%，然後從那裡開始上升。

So that's what we're getting granularly on the ground. And of course, smartphones are supposed to pick up in 2023 from last year. And remember, the smartphones in China were down 20% last year. So it was just a big down. I mean nobody -- none of the consumers were shopping.

這就是我們在實地取得的進展。當然，智能手機應該會在 2023 年從去年開始流行起來。請記住，去年中國的智能手機銷量下降了 20%。所以這只是一個大跌。我的意思是沒有人——沒有一個消費者在購物。

So I think just China coming back on its own from kind of this artificial COVID thing alone is going to help with demand. And remember, we're high on electronics in that market in general. So I think we'll see a boost there. And then if we're right with our customers on the PCB side, we'll start seeing that in the middle of the second quarter.

因此，我認為只有中國從這種人造 COVID 事件中自行恢復，才能幫助滿足需求。請記住，我們在那個市場上的電子產品總體上處於領先地位。所以我認為我們會在那裡看到提振。然後，如果我們在 PCB 方面與客戶的關係是正確的，我們將在第二季度中期開始看到這一點。

And then on the semi side, I think that's pretty public knowledge, but those fabs were all running high, kind of 95%. They're now running in the low 80s. Now remember, a lot of that is destocking going on. Most of the chip guys are saying the down -- the biggest down quarter is the first quarter. We think it's the first and second quarter. So in our planning, as Lori mentioned, that's what we planned that we start seeing our ramp towards the end of the second quarter.

然後在半成品方面，我認為這是眾所周知的知識，但那些晶圓廠都運行得很高，大約 95%。他們現在運行在 80 年代的低端。現在請記住，其中很多是去庫存。大多數籌碼專家都在說下跌——跌幅最大的季度是第一季度。我們認為這是第一季度和第二季度。因此，正如 Lori 所提到的，在我們的計劃中，這就是我們計劃在第二季度末開始看到我們的增長。

And if you look at the MSI data, it's kind of minus 10 and then minus 12 versus the second quarter, and then it improves and gets actually positive in the fourth quarter. And then, of course, we'll -- our demand will happen slightly before that MSI number. So I think we -- the way we laid it out, we're sequencing it properly.

如果你看一下 MSI 數據，它與第二季度相比是負 10，然後是負 12，然後它有所改善，在第四季度實際上是正的。然後，當然，我們將 - 我們的需求將在 MSI 編號之前發生。所以我認為我們 - 我們的佈局方式，我們正在正確排序。

And by the way, maybe just to give you the rest of the landscape the way we put '23 together, we plan that the construction markets will be down all of 2023. And then pretty much every other business, we have all the industrial businesses, will be stable in 2023 and the water business will grow mid to high single digits. So that's kind of a lay of the land of how we put it together.

順便說一句，也許只是為了讓您了解我們將 23 年放在一起的其他情況，我們計劃建築市場將在 2023 年全年下滑。然後幾乎所有其他業務，我們擁有所有工業業務，將在 2023 年保持穩定，水務業務將實現中高個位數增長。所以這就是我們如何將它放在一起的土地。

Yes. If I can just add, too, we referenced a market research inventory index for semi to get an understanding of what inventory exists in the channel. And right now, usually, it says it kind of goes into surplus mode when the inventory index is above 1.2. We're looking to be in that, [butting] up against the 1.2 as we close the first quarter. And then the second quarter, to our earlier point, is the peak where it gets a little bit higher than 1.2, and then it starts to come back down.

是的。如果我也可以補充一點，我們參考了 semi 的市場研究庫存指數，以了解渠道中存在的庫存。現在，通常情況下，當庫存指數高於 1.2 時，它就會進入盈餘模式。我們希望在第一季度結束時與 1.2 對抗。然後第二季度，就我們之前的觀點而言，是它略高於 1.2 的峰值，然後開始回落。

For reference, back at the last semi downturn in the late 2018, 2019 down trade, it was much higher. So it doesn't feel like we have the same dynamics going on at what we had back then. But it does feel like there is more in the channel than where we were definitely last year at this time. We were kind of at a below 1 level with respect to the inventory index.

作為參考，回到 2018 年末、2019 年下行交易的最後一次半低迷時，它要高得多。因此，感覺我們與當時的情況不同。但確實感覺頻道中的內容比我們去年這個時候肯定要多。關於庫存指數，我們有點低於 1 水平。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steve Tusa。

So just looking at the guide, I think you guys have like $0.60 or something like that of tailwinds off of the $3.40 base, kind of gets you just above $4. The low end of the range at $3.50 just seems like -- what's embedded in the low end of that $3.50 range? I feel like the math gets us to something a little bit higher, at least at the low end.

所以只要看看指南，我認為你們有 0.60 美元或類似 3.40 美元基數的順風，有點讓你略高於 4 美元。 3.50 美元範圍的低端似乎——3.50 美元範圍的低端嵌入了什麼？我覺得數學能讓我們達到更高的水平，至少在低端是這樣。

Yes. So the low end on both the top and bottom line really assumes not much improvement coming out of Q1. So it's a little bit mainly driven by seasonality, but not a lot of recovery in the end markets that we had spoke about. So it is more on the pessimistic side. We believe a lot of the indicators that we're seeing and the conversations that we're having with our customers would suggest that wouldn't come to fruition, but we wanted to bucket it on the low end just to be cautious.

是的。因此，頂線和底線的低端確實假設第一季度沒有太大改善。所以這有點主要是由季節性因素驅動的，但我們談到的終端市場並沒有太多複蘇。所以它更偏向於悲觀的一面。我們相信，我們看到的許多指標以及我們與客戶進行的對話都表明這不會實現，但我們希望將其放在低端以保持謹慎。

Yes. I mean, Steve, it would be more a global recession scenario. So we're just bracketing it. But I would point you to the midpoint of our guidance is where we're obviously trying to zero in at.

是的。我的意思是，史蒂夫，這更像是全球衰退的情景。所以我們只是把它括起來。但我會指出我們指導的中點是我們顯然試圖歸零的地方。

Yes, that's where we are anyway. I saw some news on an employment contract. I got a lot going on this morning, but can you just maybe give us a little bit of color there for you?

是的，這就是我們所在的地方。我看到一些關於僱傭合同的新聞。今天早上我有很多事情要做，但你能不能給我們一些顏色？

Yes, Steve. So I had a contract in place, I think it was a 3-year contract that ends at the end of this 2023 calendar year. And a question I get pretty frequently from investors is that your retirement date because that's when your contract expires. So the Board and I wanted to take that off the table. I'm going to continue employment after the end of the year. And I don't need a contract anymore because some of the stipulations were back in from the DowDuPont days. And so I'm just an at-will employee, but excited to continue after the end of the year.

是的，史蒂夫。所以我有一份合同，我認為這是一份 3 年的合同，到 2023 年年底結束。我經常從投資者那裡得到的一個問題是你的退休日期，因為那是你的合同到期的時間。所以董事會和我想把它從桌面上拿下來。我將在年底後繼續就業。而且我不再需要合同，因為一些規定是從 DowDuPont 時代開始的。所以我只是一名臨時僱員，但很高興能在年底後繼續工作。

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

You guys had really strong pricing in 2022, obviously, to get after that $800 million of inflation. How do we think about that price/cost relationship in '23? Presumably, there'll be parts of your business that will hopefully see some deflation, and then maybe wages and stuff are still a headwind. But how should we be thinking about carryover pricing into '23? And how you'll manage pricing where you might see some deflation?

顯然，你們在 2022 年的定價非常高，以應對 8 億美元的通貨膨脹。我們如何看待 23 年的價格/成本關係？據推測，您的業務的某些部分有望出現通貨緊縮，然後工資和其他東西可能仍然是不利因素。但是我們應該如何考慮 23 年的結轉定價？在可能出現通貨緊縮的情況下，您將如何管理定價？

Yes. So we haven't seen any positive impact yet in our numbers. But I would expect on the logistics and freight side, maybe we'll start to see something towards the end of the second quarter there. We've baked very little into our 2023 business plan for any benefit from price/cost. A little bit is in the second half of the year, but not much.

是的。所以我們還沒有看到我們的數字有任何積極影響。但我預計在物流和貨運方面，也許我們會在第二季度末開始看到一些東西。我們在 2023 年的商業計劃中幾乎沒有考慮價格/成本帶來的任何好處。下半年有一點，但不多。

When we start to see it, we'll highlight it obviously and look at our forecast again. But I mean, obviously, it looks like some of these [roles] are going to start to come down here and, again, see some benefit from the extreme freight rates in the middle of last year. But again, we've baked very little of that in so far.

當我們開始看到它時，我們會明顯地突出顯示它並再次查看我們的預測。但我的意思是，顯然，其中一些 [角色] 似乎將開始下降，並再次從去年年中的極端運費中獲益。但同樣，到目前為止，我們只烤了很少的東西。

Yes. And from a price -- carryover price perspective, we do see a little bit in Q1 in the low single-digit range and then it pretty well wanes as we lap. The significance of the price increases that we drove happened in Q1 of last year, so you'll pretty well lap that in the first quarter.

是的。從價格 - 結轉價格的角度來看，我們確實在第一季度看到了一些低個位數範圍內的價格，然後隨著我們的回落而逐漸減弱。我們推動的價格上漲的重要性發生在去年第一季度，所以你很可能會在第一季度完成它。

Okay. And then, Lori, just a follow-up. Do you have a sort of rough guide for free cash flow conversion for '23? I mean it's very clear there was a lot of moving parts and noise in the '22 number. But how are you thinking about '23 at this point?

好的。然後，Lori，只是跟進。您是否有關於 23 年自由現金流轉換的粗略指南？我的意思是很明顯，'22 號中有很多活動部件和噪音。但是你現在如何看待'23？

Yes. Obviously, 2022, as you had mentioned, was noisy with the transaction cost, coupled also with the supply chain environment that caused us to hold more inventory than what we normally would. So we don't see that repeating, obviously, on the transaction side from that perspective, and the working capital situation should get better.

是的。顯然，正如您所提到的，2022 年交易成本很嘈雜，加上供應鏈環境導致我們持有比平時更多的庫存。因此，從這個角度來看，我們顯然沒有看到在交易方面重複這種情況，營運資金狀況應該會好轉。

So we should target to be at that 90% conversion range that we target for the full company. So you can use kind of the midpoint of the EPS guide that we had provided and that calculated into a number, making sure that you contemplate that roughly $150 million to $200 million in transaction costs that are primarily associated with some straggling carryover from the M&M separation and then the Delrin divestiture.

因此，我們的目標應該是達到我們為整個公司設定的 90% 的轉化率範圍。因此，您可以使用我們提供的 EPS 指南的中點，並將其計算為一個數字，確保您考慮到大約 1.5 億至 2 億美元的交易成本，這些成本主要與 M&M 分離的一些散亂結轉相關然後是 Delrin 資產剝離。

And we did start to bring inventory down in the fourth quarter. So we're going to start hopefully trending here now that the supply chains are kind of moving back to sort of normal.

我們確實在第四季度開始降低庫存。因此，既然供應鏈有點恢復正常，我們將開始有希望地趨勢。

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson from Mizuho.

你的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Christopher Parkinson。

You posted pretty solid results, water protection, specifically in water and safety. Can you just go over some of the guide framework? You hit on a lot on E&I. Can you hit on some of the guide framework as it pertains to W&P and just speak about kind of what's driving that and as well as the sustainability as we think throughout '23 and even into '24?

您發布了非常可靠的結果，水保護，特別是在水和安全方面。你能回顧一下指南框架嗎？你在 E&I 上很受歡迎。你能否找到一些與 W&P 相關的指南框架，並談談我們在整個 23 年甚至進入 24 年期間所考慮的驅動力以及可持續性？

Yes. From an organic basis, we'll continue to see strength within water. So we had really nice performance in the water segment in general in 2022 with organic sales up kind of high single digits, and we would expect a similar performance this year.

是的。從有機的角度來看，我們將繼續看到水中的力量。因此，2022 年我們在水務領域的總體表現非常好，有機銷售額增長了個位數，我們預計今年會有類似的表現。

The one end market that will be weak for us, as Ed had mentioned, is shelter. So in the first quarter, we do see shelter down kind of in the mid-teens. That will moderate as you go for the -- as you go through the year, down into the mid-single digits potentially on a full year basis. But we don't see a full recovery in shelter within the 2023 time frame.

正如埃德所提到的，對我們來說薄弱的一個終端市場是庇護所。所以在第一季度，我們確實看到了十幾歲左右的庇護所。這將隨著你的努力而緩和 - 當你經歷這一年時，可能會在全年的基礎上下降到中等個位數。但我們看不到在 2023 年的時間範圍內收容所會完全恢復。

And then generally, in safety, those are industrial end markets for the most part, minus maybe a little bit of destocking that's happening at some of the big distributors, that should generally perform in line with industrial production on a full year basis.

然後一般來說，在安全方面，這些市場大部分是工業終端市場，減去一些大型分銷商可能發生的一些去庫存，這通常應該與全年的工業生產保持一致。

Yes. And on the shelter side, remember, there is seasonality in that business. So the first quarter is usually the lowest, that we've planned kind of a recession scenario for construction throughout the whole year, but then you will get some seasonality lift as you're in the middle of the year, just naturally off of a tougher bottom. But...

是的。在避難所方面，請記住，該業務存在季節性。所以第一季度通常是最低的，我們已經計劃了全年的建築業衰退情景，但是當你在年中時，你會得到一些季節性的提升，很自然地脫離了更堅硬的底部。但...

Got it. That's very helpful. And then you also hit on some remarks regarding just the Delrin timing and just how do we think about that. Do you have anything else that you'd be comfortable adding at this time in terms of just the process, where you stand, your confidence level versus a few quarters ago? That would be very helpful.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後你還談到了一些關於 Delrin 時間以及我們如何看待它的評論。與幾個季度前相比，就流程、你的立場、你的信心水平而言，你現在還有什麼可以補充的嗎？那將非常有幫助。

Yes. So we've done all the clean room work. That's all set. We've been doing some education on the business externally. If I had to kind of guess at this point, I think we're going to launch more formally at the end of this quarter that we're now in. We think the markets are better than they were in the fourth quarter. There's probably strategic and private equity interest, so that's why we are being careful on the timing.

是的。所以我們已經完成了所有潔淨室工作。一切就緒。我們一直在對外部業務進行一些教育。如果我不得不在這一點上進行猜測，我認為我們將在本季度末更正式地推出我們現在所在的市場。我們認為市場比第四季度要好。可能有戰略和私人股本利益，所以這就是我們在時機上保持謹慎的原因。

And so my gut is we'll launch around then. And the business looks like it's having a pretty decent first quarter as we can see it right now. So I think that the timing might be good there. And we should be able to wrap up a deal fairly quickly in that business, so it's not that complicated. So that's why we made the comment that we should be able to close that, obviously, in 2023.

所以我的直覺是我們將在那時推出。正如我們現在所見，該業務看起來第一季度表現相當不錯。所以我認為時機可能很好。而且我們應該能夠在該業務中相當快地完成交易，所以它並不那麼複雜。所以這就是為什麼我們發表評論說我們應該能夠在 2023 年關閉它。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Leithead from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

First, I just wanted to go back and talk about the expected cadence for full year earnings. It sounds like, kind of reading between the lines, you're indicating late in 2Q, things start to pick up, inflecting in electronics and some input deflation. So should we model a pickup really starting in the second quarter? Or does the recovery begin more notably in the third quarter in your view?

首先，我只想回去談談全年收益的預期節奏。這聽起來像是字裡行間的解讀，你表示第二季度末，情況開始好轉，電子產品出現變化，輸入通縮有所下降。那麼我們是否應該在第二季度真正開始模擬皮卡？還是您認為複蘇在第三季度開始更為顯著？

You'll get some lift in the second quarter and, I would say, predominantly because of China coming back kind of online, if I should say it that way. So I would model -- we've given you the first quarter. I would model some sequential improvement, but the bulk of it would be the third and fourth quarter.

你會在第二季度得到一些提升，我想說，主要是因為中國回歸在線，如果我應該那樣說的話。所以我會建模 - 我們已經給了你第一季度。我會模擬一些連續的改進，但大部分是第三和第四季度。

And again, it lays out, we think the middle of the second quarter, the ICS business start, the fab start ramping up. So most of that benefit, you'll see third and fourth quarter, a little bit in the second quarter. And then we don't -- we're not planning on semi picking up until the third quarter. Maybe it will happen in the middle of the second quarter, but somewhere in that ZIP code.

再一次，我們認為第二季度中期，ICS 業務開始，晶圓廠開始增加。所以大部分的好處，你會看到第三和第四季度，第二季度有一點。然後我們不 - 我們不打算在第三季度之前進行半回升。也許它會在第二季度中期發生，但在那個郵政編碼的某個地方。

And so you get a little bit of China uplift, maybe a little on ICS, but again, planning mostly third quarter for that. Maybe a little in semi, but again, planning more third quarter for that. So I think you can kind of build that out to get to kind of maybe our midpoint that we've guided to for the year.

因此，您會在中國獲得一些提升，也許在 ICS 上有所提升，但同樣，主要計劃第三季度。也許在半決賽中有一點，但同樣，為此計劃更多的第三季度。所以我認為你可以建立它來達到我們今年指導的中點。

Great. That's super helpful. And then quickly, just a second question just on M&A. We've seen a few transactions start to pick up a bit as of late. Can you just talk about what you're seeing, some of the potential acquisition size?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後很快，關於併購的第二個問題。我們已經看到一些交易最近開始有所回升。你能談談你所看到的，一些潛在的收購規模嗎？

Yes, we're looking at a couple of things we've been interested in. But my gut is we will do a bolt-on acquisition this year, but that's not a given. We're in no rush. We want to get it at the right price. So we'll see, but we're definitely looking and zeroed in on a couple of things.

是的，我們正在研究一些我們一直感興趣的事情。但我的直覺是我們今年將進行補強收購，但這不是必然的。我們並不著急。我們希望以合適的價格獲得它。所以我們會看到，但我們肯定正在尋找並專注於幾件事。

But I put them more in the bolt-on size from a spend category, and it would clearly be in one of our growth pillars where we have the expertise. And what we really want to do is pick up innovation and R&D and technologies in core areas to build out a couple of the platforms.

但我將它們更多地放在支出類別的附加規模中，這顯然是我們擁有專業知識的增長支柱之一。我們真正想做的是在核心領域進行創新、研發和技術建設，建立幾個平台。

Your next question comes from the line of Aleksey Yefremov from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

In E&I, you're discussing several new products launched in both Interconnect and Semiconductor Technologies. So I wonder, how are your customers looking at adoption of new technologies, things like new nodes for your fab customers? Is it getting pushed out? Or is there policy interaction on that?

在 E&I 中，您正在討論互連和半導體技術公司推出的幾款新產品。所以我想知道，您的客戶如何看待新技術的採用，比如為您的晶圓廠客戶提供新節點？是不是被擠出來了？還是在這方面有政策互動？

No, I mean the interaction still remain very robust, and they're a key portion of our out-delivery of top line growth, especially within semi. So we would still expect that 200 to 300 basis point outperformance versus the end markets. And the discussions are still very frequent and common for us to be able to continue to drive that relationship.

不，我的意思是互動仍然非常強勁，它們是我們實現頂線增長的關鍵部分，尤其是在半決賽中。因此，我們仍然預計 200 到 300 個基點的表現優於終端市場。而且討論仍然非常頻繁和普遍，以便我們能夠繼續推動這種關係。

Yes, I mean -- and let's keep in mind that when the semi thing picks up for the second half of the year on, the next decade looks pretty incredible for the semi business. You see all the announcements on the fabs. Almost all of these fabs are the denser, smaller, high-end chips. And that's why we, as Lori just mentioned, we get the 200 to 300 basis point overgrowth from the market is because we get to participate more and more on the advanced node side.

是的，我的意思是 - 讓我們記住，當半成品在今年下半年回升時，下一個十年對於半成品業務來說看起來非常不可思議。您會看到晶圓廠的所有公告。幾乎所有這些晶圓廠都是更密集、更小的高端芯片。這就是為什麼我們，正如 Lori 剛才提到的，我們從市場中獲得 200 到 300 個基點的過度增長是因為我們越來越多地參與到高級節點方面。

So the outlook -- we're going to have a couple of softer quarters here, but the outlook over the next decade is pretty incredible in this space. So we stay very much up on the R&D, and we're very close to the top semiconductor customers doing design and work with them.

所以前景 - 我們將在這裡有幾個疲軟的季度，但未來十年的前景在這個領域非常令人難以置信。所以我們非常關注研發，我們非常接近頂級半導體客戶進行設計並與他們合作。

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Spector from UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

Just your guidance doesn't appear to really factor in any further buybacks beyond the ASR you have ongoing. I was just wondering if you could talk about your willingness to either deploy that additional $2 billion on top of the ASR immediately following, how you're thinking about when that plays into your framework?

只是你的指導似乎並沒有真正考慮到你正在進行的 ASR 之外的任何進一步回購。我只是想知道您是否可以談談您是否願意在緊隨其後的 ASR 之上部署額外的 20 億美元，您如何考慮何時將其納入您的框架？

Yes. So the guide does contemplate starting potentially another ASR when this one is complete at like the beginning of the fourth quarter. So our guidance that we provided for EPS has a reduction in the full year versus the first quarter outlook, and that reflects getting started on that second tranche of $2 billion that we have remaining on the authorization.

是的。因此，當這個 ASR 在第四季度初完成時，指南確實考慮開始可能的另一個 ASR。因此，我們為 EPS 提供的全年指導與第一季度展望相比有所減少，這反映了我們開始進行第二批 20 億美元的授權。

But we also have the ability to still purchase over the top on the existing ASR should we feel it prudent. So we have some volume that we can purchase as needed while the current ASR is open. Generally, you try to keep your volume under 15% of daily purchases so that you don't work against yourself, and our current contracts on the ASR allow us to do a little bit over the top.

但如果我們覺得謹慎的話，我們也有能力在現有 ASR 的基礎上繼續購買。因此，在當前 ASR 開放時，我們可以根據需要購買一些數量。通常，您會嘗試將您的交易量保持在每日購買量的 15% 以下，以免您對自己不利，而我們當前的 ASR 合同允許我們做一些過高的事情。

Josh, as a reminder, Page 16 of our slide deck has some additional modeling guidance, including share count, but don't miss the fact that we took quite a few shares out in the fourth quarter associated with the ASR that was enacted in mid-November. So you may have been missing that effect in the fourth quarter and then the guide for '23 on the year-over-year.

Josh，提醒一下，我們幻燈片的第 16 頁有一些額外的建模指南，包括股票數量，但不要錯過我們在第四季度與中期制定的 ASR 相關的相當多的股票-十一月。因此，您可能在第四季度錯過了這種影響，然後錯過了 23 年的同比指南。

No, got it. I appreciate that. And just -- and I guess the follow-up on the contract you have in place to keep going beyond this year, I guess it's become a bigger question for investors around long-term transition planning. So I guess, where would you say you and the Board are in terms of thinking about kind of the next step for DuPont? Maybe it's multiple years out, but where are we in that process?

不，明白了。我很感激。只是 - 我想你已經制定的合同的後續行動將持續到今年以後，我想這已經成為投資者圍繞長期過渡規劃的一個更大的問題。所以我想，你會說你和董事會在考慮杜邦的下一步行動方面在哪裡？也許已經過了很多年，但我們在那個過程中處於什麼位置？

Yes. The Board is well aware of internal candidates being developed and continuing to go through their career. So we -- the Board is clearly aware of who internally is an option for the next CEO role. But we're also not at that point, but we do discuss it regularly in the development plans for the internal candidates. So I'll just leave it at that.

是的。董事會非常了解正在培養並繼續完成其職業生涯的內部候選人。所以我們 - 董事會清楚地知道誰是下一任 CEO 職位的內部選擇。但我們也沒有到那個時候，但我們確實在內部候選人的發展計劃中定期討論它。所以我就把它留在那兒。

Your next question comes from the line of John Roberts from Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Roberts。

Ed, you didn't mention the U.S.-China trade technology restrictions, including the new Huawei controls. Is that an immaterial issue for DuPont?

艾德，你沒有提到美中貿易技術限制，包括新的華為控制。這對杜邦來說是無關緊要的問題嗎？

Yes, it's 50 -- John, the reason we didn't -- I know we mentioned it last quarter, but it's about $50 million to $60 million of revenue. So it's not that significant, though, but we did bake that obviously into our forecasting that we did. And so whether you can take that as -- you can extract that down to EBITDA, it's not that big in the scheme of things. But that's definitely in place, yes.

是的，它是 50——約翰，我們沒有提到的原因——我知道我們上個季度提到過它，但它的收入大約是 5000 萬到 6000 萬美元。所以這並不是那麼重要，但我們確實將其顯然納入了我們所做的預測中。因此，無論您是否可以將其視為——您可以將其提取到 EBITDA，它在整個計劃中並沒有那麼大。但這絕對是正確的，是的。

Yes. And that's on -- as Ed said, on the direct Huawei exposure, there's really not much there. So we don't have exposure there.

是的。就這樣——正如埃德所說，關於華為的直接曝光，那裡真的不多。所以我們在那裡沒有曝光。

Right, that $50 million to $60 million is semi.

是的，那 5000 萬到 6000 萬美元是半美元。

Yes.

是的。

And remind us when the first PFAS trial is scheduled and any update on the negotiations there?

並提醒我們何時安排首次 PFAS 試驗以及那裡談判的任何最新進展？

Yes, John, it's scheduled in June of this year. And we have ongoing conversations for a settlement. By the way, I think having a -- the judge appointed a mediator. I think that was around the time we did last earnings call, if I remember. And I would say that's very helpful to the process. So I'll leave it there.

是的，約翰，計劃在今年 6 月舉行。我們正在就解決問題進行對話。順便說一下，我認為有一位——法官指定了一名調解員。如果我記得的話，那是我們上一次財報電話會議的時間。我會說這對流程非常有幫助。所以我會把它留在那裡。

Your next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Just kind of understanding kind of the back half cadence and what you'll be exiting the year on. So if you think about the guidance you offered, does it look like maybe the back half is kind of, at a run rate basis, maybe at the upper end or maybe at the middle end of the range, say, Q3, Q4 averaging close to $1? Or -- and what is it going to take to really get to that kind of level of earnings power? Is it mainly a macro recovery? Or are there other levers within your control that you can leverage?

只是有點了解後半段節奏以及你將在這一年結束的事情。所以如果你考慮一下你提供的指導，看起來後半部分是不是有點，在運行率的基礎上，可能在範圍的上端或中端，比如說，Q3，Q4 平均收盤價到 1 美元？或者 - 真正達到那種盈利能力水平需要什麼？主要是宏觀復甦？或者在您的控制範圍內是否還有其他可以利用的槓桿？

Yes. So you're pretty well spot on, on the second half EPS trajectory, and it really is all impingent upon the pace of the recovery in the end markets that we highlighted. So seeing the semi destock and the demand return, seeing the smartphone and consumer electronic destock soften and the demand return and then, obviously, the continued China reopening will have a positive impact on our business.

是的。因此，在下半年 EPS 軌跡上，你已經很清楚了，這確實對我們強調的終端市場的複蘇步伐產生了影響。因此，看到半去庫存和需求回歸，看到智能手機和消費電子去庫存疲軟和需求回歸，然後很明顯，中國繼續重新開放將對我們的業務產生積極影響。

So that impacted us in December, and it will impact us on Q1 as they continue their reopening. But remember, we've got 20% of our sales into China, so a nice opportunity as they continue to recover from the full COVID lockdown. So it's really the shift between the first half and the second half is really all from the top line and the expected recovery there.

因此，這在 12 月影響了我們，並且隨著他們繼續重新開放，它將影響我們在第一季度的表現。但請記住，我們有 20% 的銷售額來自中國，這是一個很好的機會，因為他們將繼續從 COVID 的全面封鎖中恢復過來。因此，上半場和下半場之間的轉變實際上完全來自頂線和那裡的預期復蘇。

Yes. And you do get -- it's Chris. You do get a nice lift in margins, and it benefits from mix in part. I mean as E&I comes back, remember, you've got a nice margin lift, so you're kind of in the mid-24s on a margin in the first half and then you're up in the low to mid-25s in the second half, again, benefiting from that mix and the timing of that E&I rebound from first half to second half. So you end up averaging -- the overall margins for the year end up being relatively flat, but there's a nice lift on a run rate basis when you're in the second half there.

是的。你確實得到了——是克里斯。您的利潤率確實得到了很好的提升，並且部分受益於混合。我的意思是當 E&I 回來時，請記住，你有一個很好的利潤率提升，所以你在上半場處於 24 年代中期的邊緣，然後你在 25 年代的低端到中期下半場再次受益於這種組合以及 E&I 從上半場到下半場反彈的時機。所以你最終平均 - 今年的總體利潤率最終相對持平，但當你在下半年時，運行率基礎上有一個很好的提升。

And just as a follow-up then, if you look at '24, you will be facing easier comps, especially in the first half in E&I. Do we return kind of to a double-digit EPS growth rate in '24? Again, would you be inclined to increase the repurchase activity to reach that level if needed?

然後作為後續行動，如果你看看 24 年，你將面臨更容易的比賽，尤其是在 E&I 的上半場。我們是否會在 24 年恢復兩位數的每股收益增長率？同樣，如果需要，您是否傾向於增加回購活動以達到該水平？

Yes. I mean I think it's a little early to start looking at '24. Obviously, this should -- we've got nice EPS growth from the capital allocation decisions that we've made, and we'll see that carry into 2024 as well because the second piece of the existing authorization really won't be put in place until the fourth quarter. So you won't get the full benefit on a full year basis from that.

是的。我的意思是我認為現在開始關注 24 年還為時過早。顯然，這應該——我們已經從我們做出的資本分配決定中獲得了不錯的每股收益增長，我們也將看到這種增長延續到 2024 年，因為現有授權的第二部分確實不會投入使用放置到第四節。因此，您不會從中獲得全年的全部收益。

But yes, in a normal environment, we should drive really nice top and bottom line growth. We've got end markets that would suggest, in total, you would be in that mid-single-digit range on the top line if they perform in a normal macro perspective. And then I think we've proven that we do a really nice job of driving margin improvement and leverage across the P&L. So we wouldn't see any material change there from that dynamic.

但是，是的，在正常環境中，我們應該推動非常好的收入和利潤增長。我們的終端市場表明，如果它們以正常的宏觀視角表現，您將總體上處於收入的中等個位數範圍內。然後我認為我們已經證明我們在推動利潤率提高和整個損益表的槓桿作用方面做得非常好。因此，我們不會從這種動態中看到任何實質性變化。

Your next question comes from the line of John McNulty from BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John McNulty。

This is Bhavesh Lodaya for John. In your guide, you have a cautious outlook on the construction end markets pretty much throughout the year. Is there a way to quantify what the year-over-year EBITDA impact is from the downturn? And then I realize it's early, but when do you expect to get more clarity on a potential trajectory of recovery there?

這是 John 的 Bhavesh Lodaya。在您的指南中，您幾乎全年都對建築終端市場持謹慎態度。有沒有辦法量化經濟衰退對 EBITDA 的同比影響？然後我意識到現在還早，但你預計什麼時候能更清楚那裡的潛在復蘇軌跡？

Yes. So for the Shelter segment, it's about 13% of sales. And we had mentioned on a full year basis, we would expect that to be down mid-single digits. And we've sized the EBITDA margin profile of Shelter as below the W&P segment average. So I think we've given you several data points there that you can back into what we believe the EBITDA headwind will be to W&P and the total company from Shelter in 2023.

是的。因此，對於避難所部分，它大約佔銷售額的 13%。我們在全年的基礎上提到過，我們預計會下降到中個位數。而且我們將 Shelter 的 EBITDA 利潤率調整為低於 W&P 細分市場的平均水平。因此，我認為我們已經為您提供了幾個數據點，您可以回到我們認為 EBITDA 不利因素將在 2023 年對 W&P 和 Shelter 的整個公司造成的影響。

And then you highlighted cost -- yes, sorry, please.

然後你強調了成本——是的，對不起，請。

No, go ahead.

沒有，繼續。

You highlighted cost control measures initiated during the fourth quarter, and those clearly helped from the margin perspective. Is there a way to quantify the benefit? And do you need to do more of these in 2023? Or maybe what's built into your guide around these?

您強調了第四季度啟動的成本控制措施，從利潤率的角度來看，這些措施顯然有所幫助。有沒有辦法量化收益？你需要在 2023 年做更多這些嗎？或者你的指南中圍繞這些有什麼內容？

Yes. So we took costs out in the fourth quarter. We opened a restructuring program. And under the restructuring program, we took about a $60 million charge. And a lot of that was to get after the stranded costs that we saw coming out of the completion of the M&M divestiture, and there also were some actions in the business that's able to drive productivity.

是的。所以我們在第四季度扣除了成本。我們啟動了重組計劃。根據重組計劃，我們收取了大約 6000 萬美元的費用。其中很多是為了解決我們在完成 M&M 資產剝離後看到的擱淺成本，而且業務中也有一些能夠提高生產力的行動。

So we've got further room under the restructuring program if we would need it to be able to continue to drive margin and the decremental margin that we target. As of now, there's really nothing planned or baked into the guide incrementally, but we have the flexibility if we need to.

因此，如果我們需要它能夠繼續推動利潤率和我們目標的遞減利潤率，我們在重組計劃下還有更多空間。截至目前，指南中確實沒有任何計劃或逐步納入，但如果需要，我們可以靈活處理。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Sison from Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Mike Sison。

Nice end of the quarter -- nice end of the year. In terms of your outlook for construction, I mean, are you hearing from your customers now that their backlogs are really weak at the end of the second half? Or is it just more planning for difficult environment that would higher interest rates and such?

不錯的季度末 - 不錯的年末。就您的建築前景而言，我的意思是，您現在是否從您的客戶那裡得知下半年末他們的積壓訂單真的很弱？還是只是針對困難環境的更多計劃會導致更高的利率等？

Yes, it's just planning at this point. And by the way, not to get overly optimistic, I heard a couple of homebuilders during this last quarter, actually reported numbers that were kind of nicely better than were expected with decent backlog, actually. So I think it's mixed out there. I think certain regions of the country, if you look at the detail, are doing better in construction, some of the Southeast and Southwest areas.

是的，目前只是在計劃中。順便說一句，不要過於樂觀，我在上個季度聽到一些房屋建築商實際上報告的數字比預期的要好得多，實際上積壓情況不錯。所以我認為它是混合的。我認為這個國家的某些地區，如果你看細節，在建設方面做得更好，一些東南部和西南地區。

But having said that, again, we're also in a deleveraging mode here right now. And remember, some of our construction materials go into big box for do-it-yourself stuff, and there is clearly destocking going on there. So that part of it will end. But we've just planned -- look, with interest rates where they are at the macro on the Shelter business right now, just assume the whole year stays at about the level it's at, and Lori mentioned the percentages. So I think it's just prudent planning on our part.

但話說回來，我們現在也處於去槓桿化模式。請記住，我們的一些建築材料會放入大箱子中用於自己動手做的東西，而且那裡顯然正在去庫存。所以這部分將結束。但我們剛剛計劃 - 看，目前住房業務的宏觀利率，假設全年保持在目前的水平，Lori 提到了百分比。所以我認為這只是我們的謹慎計劃。

Right. And then for E&I, it does seem like you need some volume growth in the second half to hit the midpoint. How much of that is from new products and some of your innovation that you've done and maybe wins on new nodes and memory?

正確的。然後對於 E&I，下半年似乎確實需要一些銷量增長才能達到中點。其中有多少來自新產品和您已經完成並可能在新節點和內存上獲勝的一些創新？

Well, let me just give you, overall, our new products are -- that have been launched in the last few years are like 30% of our sales. So we track that very, very closely. We're constantly bringing out new versions, I would say, of our technology all the time. And that's what keeps us ahead of the pack on, for instance, the advanced nodes in semi on [our sites]. So it's constantly happened. But I wouldn't say that it's not going to have a material effect on where our revenue ends up. That's just a month by month that happens.

好吧，讓我告訴你，總的來說，我們在過去幾年推出的新產品大約占我們銷售額的 30%。所以我們非常非常密切地跟踪它。我想說，我們一直在不斷推出我們技術的新版本。這就是讓我們保持領先地位的原因，例如，[我們網站] 上的 semi 高級節點。所以它經常發生。但我不會說這不會對我們的收入最終去向產生實質性影響。這只是一個月一個月發生的事情。

Yes. I think I mean back to the outperformance that we highlight, so currently, the full year MSI expectations are in the down mid-single-digit range, obviously, vary dramatically by the quarters with the first quarter starting at it at down kind of low double digits. But our expectations opposite that full year down low single-digit MSI number or down mid-single-digit MSI number would be to be down low single digits.

是的。我想我的意思是回到我們強調的出色表現，所以目前，全年 MSI 預期處於較低的中個位數範圍內，顯然，第一季度開始時的季度差異很大兩位數。但我們的預期與全年下降低個位數 MSI 數字或下降中個位數 MSI 數字相反，將下降低個位數。

So we would still expect that outperformance, that outperformance that's driven by the innovation engine that we have that allows us to be able to be more exposed to the high-end nodes and continuing to build relationships with those customers.

因此，我們仍然期望這種出色的表現，這種由我們擁有的創新引擎驅動的出色表現，使我們能夠更多地接觸高端節點，並繼續與這些客戶建立關係。

And that, again, that low mid-single digits for MSI is very negative in the first quarter and builds during the year, and it gets positive in the back half of the year, which we believe that also having talked to our semi customers.

而且，MSI 的中低個位數在第一季度非常負，並在年內增加，並且在今年下半年變得積極，我們相信這也與我們的半導體客戶進行了交談。

Your next question comes from the line of David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Ed and Lori, how should we think -- in E&I, how should we think about incremental margins in the back half of the year?

Ed 和 Lori，我們應該如何思考——在 E&I 中，我們應該如何考慮下半年的增量利潤率？

Yes. We would expect in the back half of the year, the overall EBITDA margins to be more in that 31-ish-percent range that we would expect from the E&I perspective. So they will be a little bit muted in the first half, and we would expect a return from the EBITDA margin profile in the second half.

是的。我們預計在今年下半年，整體 EBITDA 利潤率將超過我們從 E&I 角度預期的 31% 左右的範圍。因此，他們在上半年會有點低調，我們預計下半年 EBITDA 利潤率會有所回報。

So what is the implied for incrementals in the back half of the year, mid-30s or higher?

那麼，今年下半年、30 年代中期或更高版本的增量意味著什麼？

It's a little higher, yes, mid-30s, maybe upper 30s incremental margins. They shouldn't be too different than the, obviously, the gross margin you would see within the E&I segment.

它有點高，是的，30 多歲，也許是 30 多歲的增量利潤率。顯然，它們不應該與您在 E&I 部門看到的毛利率有太大差異。

Understood. And just in W&P, what drives earnings higher in '23?

明白了。就 W&P 而言，是什麼推動了 23 年的收益增長？

I mean I think if you see a little bit of deflation, that would drive earnings higher. We had mentioned in 2022 and the current expectation for 2023 is there is about a 100 basis point headwind from net price/cost. We haven't baked any material benefit in from that perspective. So that would be one tailwind that would help to drive the EBITDA margins higher.

我的意思是，我認為如果你看到一點點通貨緊縮，那會推高收益。我們曾在 2022 年提到過，目前對 2023 年的預期是淨價格/成本將出現大約 100 個基點的逆風。從這個角度來看，我們還沒有獲得任何物質利益。因此，這將是有助於提高 EBITDA 利潤率的順風。

And then the other would just come from within E&I mix enrichment. So the quicker recovery in summary, that's obviously our highest-margin segment. So that would help as well to drive the E&I margins.

然後另一個將來自 E&I 混合濃縮。所以總的來說，更快的恢復，這顯然是我們利潤率最高的部分。因此，這也有助於推動 E&I 利潤率。

And the last question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

最後一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

I appreciate the granularity on China, your expectation that you're going to see a pickup by the mid-second quarter. But just curious, what are you seeing here real time post Chinese New Year in terms of economic activity there?

我很欣賞中國的細粒度，你期望你會在第二季度中期看到回升。但只是好奇，你在這裡實時看到中國農曆新年後的經濟活動情況如何？

Yes. I mean, obviously, we can see January is also a little hard to see through given the timing of Lunar New Year. So this year, it was full in January; last year, it was full in February. So it makes it a little bit different from a year-over-year comp perspective.

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，考慮到農曆新年的時間，我們可以看到一月份也有點難以看透。所以今年，一月份是滿的；去年，它在二月份就滿了。因此，從同比比較的角度來看，它有點不同。

But the reopening is definitely happening. Right now, I think the benefit of the reopening is more on the essential side. So spend is more towards those essential needs. And we would need it to obviously tend over to the discretionary needs that we would expect to see as you get further into the first half. But definitely, the lockdown appears to be well behind them and they're returning to some form of normalcy.

但重新開放肯定會發生。現在，我認為重新開放的好處更多是在本質方面。因此，支出更多地用於那些基本需求。我們需要它來明顯地滿足我們期望在您進入上半年時看到的可自由支配的需求。但可以肯定的是，封鎖似乎已經過去很久了，他們正在恢復某種形式的常態。

Very helpful. And if I could stick to the geographic theme. Your year-over-year volume declines in Europe moderated from the third quarter here in the fourth quarter. So I'm just curious as to what are you seeing on the ground in that part of the world and what your expectations are for '23 over in Europe?

很有幫助。如果我能堅持地理主題。從第三季度到第四季度，您在歐洲的同比銷量下降有所緩和。所以我很好奇你在世界那個地區看到了什麼，以及你對歐洲 23 年的期望是什麼？

Yes. So Europe does feel a little bit better as they get the concerns around the access to energy behind them. And obviously, the energy rates are a tailwind for everybody. So you've seen a really material pullback in the European natural gas rates. And so we're cautiously optimistic on Europe and the continued benefit there. For a full year basis, we're still generally flat for overall volumes in Europe. We'll see how that trends as the year plays out.

是的。因此，歐洲確實感覺好一點，因為他們對獲得能源的擔憂已經過去了。顯然，能源價格對每個人來說都是順風。所以你已經看到歐洲天然氣價格出現了真正的實質性回落。因此，我們對歐洲及其持續受益持謹慎樂觀態度。從全年來看，我們在歐洲的整體銷量仍然基本持平。隨著這一年的發展，我們將看到這種趨勢如何發展。

(inaudible) is a big part of how that plays out because of [water] in Europe is fairly significant.

（聽不清）是由於 [water] 在歐洲相當重要的原因而發揮作用的重要組成部分。

And this ends our question-and-answer session. Mr. Chris Mecray, I turn the call back over to you for some final closing comments.

這結束了我們的問答環節。 Chris Mecray 先生，我將電話轉回給您，請您作最後的結束評論。

Yes. Thanks, everybody, for joining our call. We appreciate your participation. And for your reference, our transcript will be posted on our website. This does conclude our call. Thank you.

是的。謝謝大家加入我們的電話會議。感謝您的參與。為了您的參考，我們的成績單將發佈在我們的網站上。這確實結束了我們的電話。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。