杜邦 (DD) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the DuPont Specialty Products USA LLC Third quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And finally I would like to advise all participants that this call is being recorded. Thank you.

美好的一天，歡迎參加杜邦特種產品美國有限責任公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）最後，我想通知所有參與者，本次通話正在錄音。謝謝。

I'd now like to welcome Chris Mecray to begin the conference. Chris, over to you.

現在我歡迎克里斯·麥克雷開始會議。克里斯，交給你了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for DuPont's Third Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me today are Ed Breen, Chief Executive Officer; and Lori Koch, Chief Financial Officer.

早安，感謝您參加杜邦 2023 年第三季財務業績電話會議。今天和我一起來的還有執行長 Ed Breen；和財務長洛里·科赫(Lori Koch)。

We have prepared slides to supplement our remarks, which are posted on DuPont's website under the Investor Relations tab and through the webcast link. Please read the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the slides. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations or predictions about the future. Because these statements are based on current assumptions and factors that involve risks and uncertainties, our actual performance and results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Our Form 10-K, as updated by our current and periodic reports, includes a detailed discussion of principal risks and uncertainties which may cause such differences.

我們準備了幻燈片來補充我們的評論，這些幻燈片已發佈在杜邦網站的「投資者關係」標籤下並透過網路廣播連結發布。請閱讀幻燈片中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。在本次電話會議中，我們將就我們對未來的期望或預測做出前瞻性聲明。由於這些陳述是基於目前的假設和涉及風險和不確定性的因素，因此我們的實際表現和結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述有重大差異。我們的 10-K 表格根據當前報告和定期報告進行了更新，其中包括對可能導致此類差異的主要風險和不確定性的詳細討論。

Unless otherwise specified, all historical financial measures presented today are on a continuing operations basis and exclude significant items. We will also refer to other non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is included in our press release and presentation materials and have been posted to DuPont's Investor Relations website.

除非另有說明，今天提出的所有歷史財務指標均以持續經營為基礎，不包括重要項目。我們也將參考其他非公認會計原則措施。我們的新聞稿和簡報資料中包含了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調節，並已發佈到杜邦投資者關係網站上。

I'll now turn the call over to Ed.

我現在將把電話轉給艾德。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2023 financial review. This morning, we announced third quarter results, and delivered solid earnings accomplished through strong operating execution by our teams despite ongoing volume headwinds, including channel inventory destocking and continued weak demand in China. We reported sequential operating EBITDA growth of 5% and margin improvement of 140 basis points in the third quarter. We also produced strong cash flow during the quarter, with adjusted free cash flow almost 50% higher than the year-ago period, highlighting our efforts to prioritize working capital improvement in a challenging global business environment and normalizing after last year's global supply chain difficulties.

早安，感謝您參與我們的 2023 年第三季財務回顧。今天上午，我們公佈了第三季業績，儘管銷售量持續面臨阻力，包括通路庫存去庫存和中國需求持續疲軟，但我們團隊強勁的營運執行力實現了穩健的盈利。我們報告第三季營運 EBITDA 環比成長 5%，利潤率提高 140 個基點。本季我們也產生了強勁的現金流，調整後的自由現金流比去年同期高出近50%，這凸顯了我們在充滿挑戰的全球商業環境中優先考慮改善營運資本以及在去年全球供應鏈困難後實現正常化的努力。

Compared to third quarter 2022, organic revenue declined 10%, due primarily to the impact of incremental channel inventory destocking, along with lower volumes from semiconductor and construction end markets.

與 2022 年第三季相比，有機收入下降了 10%，這主要是由於通路庫存去庫存增量以及半導體和建築終端市場銷售下降的影響。

Within our electronics portfolio, our Interconnect Solutions business recorded a second straight quarter of sequential sales lift as underlying demand improvement and normal seasonality contributed to an 8% sales increase. We also saw signs of stabilization with the semiconductor markets and expect some sequential sales improvement from semiconductor technologies in the fourth quarter.

在我們的電子產品組合中，我們的互連解決方案業務連續第二個季度實現銷售額連續成長，原因是潛在需求改善和正常的季節性因素導致銷售額成長 8%。我們也看到了半導體市場穩定的跡象，並預計第四季度半導體技術的銷售額將有所改善。

Third quarter volume was lower than expected, primarily due to incremental channel inventory destocking, including with our distributor customers, which was evident in the Water Solutions and Safety Solutions lines of business. In this environment, we remain focused on controlling discretionary spending and are also planning additional restructuring actions to continue to ensure we can drive sound operational and financial performance, targeting at least $150 million in annualized run rate cost savings, which we expect to be seeing later in the first quarter of 2024.

第三季銷售低於預期，主要是由於通路庫存去庫存增加，包括我們的經銷商客戶，這在水解決方案和安全解決方案業務線中很明顯。在這種環境下，我們仍然專注於控制可自由支配支出，並計劃採取額外的重組行動，以繼續確保我們能夠推動良好的營運和財務業績，目標是每年節省至少1.5 億美元的運行成本，我們預計稍後會看到這一點2024 年第一季。

It's always difficult to precisely time market inflections, but current industry forecast within electronic submarkets going to recovery by 2024. This includes forecast for PC shipments to grow mid-single digits, driven by replacement demand, smartphone shipment growth in the mid-single digits, also driven by replacement demand, and new product launches, and for server demand to gradually improve next year. This growth is supported by the rapid surge in demand for AI servers as well as replacement for traditional servers.

要準確掌握市場轉折點總是很困難，但目前電子子市場的產業預測將在2024 年復甦。這包括預測在更換需求的推動下，個人電腦出貨量將實現中個位數成長，智慧型手機出貨量將實現中個位數成長，另外受換機需求和新產品推出的推動，伺服器需求明年將逐步改善。這種增長得益於人工智慧伺服器需求的快速成長以及傳統伺服器的替代。

In general, demand for high-performance and high-density memory chips is accelerating, supported by AI growth as well as overall growth for new mobile product launches. This directly correlates with DuPont's product strengths within the semiconductor and consumer electronics markets.

總體而言，在人工智慧成長以及新行動產品發布的整體成長的支持下，對高效能和高密度儲存晶片的需求正在加速成長。這與杜邦在半導體和消費性電子市場的產品優勢有直接關係。

Despite the near-term headwinds we are experiencing, we are confident that our key end markets are well-positioned for long-term growth, and we expect these structurally attractive markets will provide the foundation for DuPont's value creation looking ahead.

儘管我們近期面臨不利因素，但我們相信我們的主要終端市場已為長期成長做好了準備，我們預計這些具有結構吸引力的市場將為杜邦未來的價值創造奠定基礎。

Turning to Slide 4. We significantly advanced our strategic and capital allocation priorities during the quarter to drive shareholder value. First, we closed the acquisition of Spectrum on August 1, which fits nicely alongside our Liveo healthcare-related product line within our Industrial Solutions line of business with E&I. We are pleased with Spectrum's operating results to date which are aligned with our modeled estimates. We are excited to welcome the Spectrum team, which is currently focused on executing new revenue growth opportunities stemming from significant customer wins earlier in the year. Second, I am pleased to announce that we are in the process of closing today the previously announced sale of our roughly 80% ownership interest in the Delrin business, the remaining piece of the former M&M segment held for sale to the private equity firm, TJC, and a transaction value in the business at $1.8 billion.

轉向投影片 4。本季我們大幅推進了策略和資本配置優先事項，以提高股東價值。首先，我們在 8 月 1 日完成了對 Spectrum 的收購，這與我們與 E&I 的工業解決方案業務線中的 Liveo 醫療保健相關產品線非常契合。我們對 Spectrum 迄今為止的經營業績感到滿意，這與我們的模型估計相符。我們很高興地歡迎 Spectrum 團隊的加入，該團隊目前專注於利用今年稍早贏得的重大客戶帶來的新收入成長機會。其次，我很高興地宣布，我們今天正在完成先前宣布的 Delrin 業務約 80% 所有權出售事宜，前 M&M 部門的剩餘部分出售給私募股權公司 TJC ，該業務的交易價值為 18 億美元。

This deal was structured to maximize value for our shareholders. It provides significant upfront cash proceeds with minimal expected tax impact, which can then be deployed in line with our strategic priorities. It also provides an opportunity for us to participate in future upside returns upon the exit of our retained interest in Delrin. TJC has an excellent track record of creating value, and we look forward to leveraging their talent and focus to continue to grow the high-quality Delrin business.

這項交易的目的是為我們的股東實現價值最大化。它提供了大量的預付現金收益，且預期稅收影響最小，然後可以根據我們的策略重點進行部署。它也為我們提供了在退出 Delrin 保留權益後參與未來上行回報的機會。 TJC 在創造價值方面擁有出色的記錄，我們期待利用他們的才能和專注力繼續發展高品質的 Delrin 業務。

Regarding share repurchases, in September, we completed the $3.25 billion accelerated share repurchase transaction launched last November. We then launched a new $2 billion ASR, which we expect to complete during the first quarter of 2024. Combined these 2 ASR transactions, we have repurchased approximately 15% of our outstanding shares when complete, reflecting our continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders as part of our balanced financial policy. Including these ASRs and the proceeds from the Delrin sale, we anticipate finishing the year close to our target net leverage ratio of about 2.1x.

在股票回購方面，9月，我們完成了去年11月啟動的32.5億美元加速股票回購交易。然後，我們啟動了一項新的20 億美元ASR，預計在2024 年第一季完成。結合這兩項ASR 交易，完成後我們回購了約15% 的流通股，這反映了我們繼續致力於向股東返還資本的承諾我們平衡的金融政策的一部分。包括這些 ASR 和 Delrin 出售所得收益，我們預計今年結束時將接近我們約 2.1 倍的目標淨槓桿率。

Further, we anticipate using a significant portion of excess cash during 2024 for incremental share repurchases once the ASR is complete.

此外，我們預計，一旦 ASR 完成，我們將在 2024 年使用大部分超額現金進行增量股票回購。

With that, I'll turn it over to Lori.

有了這個，我會把它交給洛里。

Thanks, Ed, and good morning. Our teams continue to execute well in a softer volume backdrop driven by broad-based inventory destocking, demonstrating strong financial discipline and focus on operational excellence. I am most pleased with the sequential margin improvement registered by each of our segments in the third quarter as well as our strong cash performance in the period. Given volume headwinds, the delivery of stronger margins and better cash flow are attributed to execution around lowering our input costs, coordination with the operating teams to rightsize our inventory position as well as overall progress with productivity via operational excellence initiatives.

謝謝，艾德，早安。在廣泛庫存去庫存的推動下，我們的團隊在銷售疲軟的背景下繼續表現出色，展現了強有力的財務紀律和對卓越營運的關注。我對第三季我們每個部門的連續利潤率改善以及我們在此期間強勁的現金表現感到非常滿意。考慮到銷售的逆風，更高的利潤率和更好的現金流的實現歸功於降低我們的投入成本、與營運團隊協調以調整我們的庫存狀況以及透過卓越營運計劃提高生產力的整體進展。

We are very focused on operating discipline and pleased that site-level operating execution is positively positioning us for solid margin upside as volumes recover. We expect to see evidence of this in 2024 given the expected recovery in key end markets, including electronics.

我們非常注重營運紀律，並且很高興地看到，隨著銷售的恢復，現場營運執行為我們帶來了堅實的利潤成長。鑑於包括電子產品在內的關鍵終端市場的預期復甦，我們預計將在 2024 年看到這方面的證據。

Turning to our financial highlights on Slide 5. Third quarter net sales of $3.1 billion decreased 8% versus the year-ago period, a 10% organic sales decline was slightly offset by a 2% portfolio benefit due primarily to revenue contribution from spectrum acquisition.

轉向幻燈片5 中的財務亮點。第三季淨銷售額為31 億美元，比去年同期下降8%，10% 的有機銷售額下降被2% 的投資組合收益略微抵消，這主要是由於頻譜收購帶來的收入貢獻。

The organic sales decline reflects a 10% decrease in volume, resulting primarily from semiconductor and construction end markets as well as the impact of channel inventory destocking. E&I and W&P organic sales declined 13% and 8%, respectively, while the retained businesses and corporate reported 1% organic sales growth, including mid-single-digit growth in the adhesives portfolio.

有機銷售額下降反映了銷量下降 10%，這主要是由於半導體和建築終端市場以及通路庫存去庫存的影響。 E&I 和 W&P 有機銷售額分別下降 13% 和 8%，而保留的業務和公司報告有機銷售額增長 1%，其中粘合劑產品組合實現中個位數增長。

From a regional perspective, consolidated DuPont sales decreased on an organic basis globally versus the year-ago period, with Asia Pacific, North America and Europe down 12%, 10% and 2%, respectively. China sales were down 16% on an organic basis versus the third quarter of 2022, though E&I sales in China increased sequentially in the quarter and saw smaller year-over-year declines in each of the last 3 quarters.

從區域角度來看，杜邦全球綜合銷售額較去年同期有機下降，其中亞太地區、北美和歐洲分別下降12%、10%和2%。與 2022 年第三季相比，中國的銷售額有機下降了 16%，儘管中國的 E&I 銷售額在本季度連續成長，並且過去三個季度的同比降幅較小。

Third quarter operating EBITDA of $775 million decreased 9% versus the year-ago period, driven by lower volumes and the impact of reduced production rates primarily within E&I as we align inventory with demand, partially offset by lower endpoint costs related to raw materials, logistics and energy along with the portfolio benefits from Spectrum.

第三季營業 EBITDA 為 7.75 億美元，較去年同期下降 9%，原因是產量減少以及我們根據需求調整庫存而導致 E&I 內部生產率降低的影響，但部分被與原材料、物流相關的端點成本降低所抵消能源以及產品組合受惠於Spectrum。

Operating EBITDA margin during the quarter of 25.3% was down 50 basis points versus the year-ago period driven by volume pressure in the high-margin semi-business and reduced production rates, primarily within the E&I segment, offset partially by cost equation benefits, which increased somewhat from second quarter levels.

本季的營業EBITDA 利潤率為25.3%，與去年同期相比下降了50 個基點，原因是高利潤半業務的銷售壓力和生產力下降（主要是在E&I 部門），部分被成本等式效益所抵消，較第二季度水準上升。

On a sequential basis, operating EBITDA was up 5% and operating EBITDA margin improved 140 basis points. Decremental margins for the quarter was 31%, enabled by cost deflation and aggressive actions taken year-to-date to reduce spending. As I mentioned earlier, I am pleased with our cash flow improvement during the quarter. Optimizing working capital performance continues to be a top priority for us. On a continued operations basis, cash flow from operations of $740 million, less capital expenditures of $119 million, resulted in adjusted free cash flow of $621 million in the third quarter, a 47% increase versus the year-ago period.

營業 EBITDA 較上季成長 5%，營業 EBITDA 利潤率提高 140 個基點。由於成本緊縮和年初至今採取的積極削減支出行動，本季利潤率下降了 31%。正如我之前提到的，我對本季現金流的改善感到滿意。優化營運資金績效仍是我們的首要任務。在持續營運的基礎上，營運現金流為 7.4 億美元，減去 1.19 億美元的資本支出，第三季調整後自由現金流為 6.21 億美元，比去年同期成長 47%。

Adjusted free cash flow conversion during the quarter was 151%, an increase versus last year, and much improved compared to the first half of this year. We currently expect to finish the year with conversion around our targeted level of 90%.

本季調整後自由現金流轉換率為151%，較去年有所成長，較今年上半年有較大改善。目前，我們預計今年年底的轉換率將達到 90% 的目標水準。

Turning to Slide 6. Adjusted EPS for the quarter of $0.92 a share increased 12% compared to $0.82 in the year-ago period. Below-the-line benefits, including a combined $0.16 benefit related to a lower share count and lower net interest expense more than offset lower segment earnings. Other below-the-line benefits, including a lower tax rate and lower foreign exchange losses, contributed $0.06 to adjusted EPS improvement versus the year-ago period.

轉向幻燈片 6。該季度調整後每股收益為 0.92 美元，與去年同期的 0.82 美元相比增長了 12%。線下收益，包括與股份數量減少和淨利息支出減少相關的總計 0.16 美元的收益，足以抵消較低的部門收益。與去年同期相比，其他線下福利，包括較低的稅率和較低的外匯損失，為調整後每股收益改善貢獻了 0.06 美元。

Our tax rate for the quarter was 24.6%, down from 26.2% in the year-ago period, driven by the impact of a rate true-up in the year-ago period, and lower than our previously communicated modeling guidance as discrete tax headwinds were lower than expected. Our expectation of a full year 2023 base tax rate of 24% remains unchanged.

由於去年同期稅率調整的影響，我們本季的稅率為 24.6%，低於去年同期的 26.2%，低於我們先前傳達的離散稅收逆風建模指引均低於預期。我們對 2023 年全年基本稅率 24% 的預期保持不變。

Turning to segment results, beginning with E&I on Slide 7. The E&I third quarter net sales of $1.4 billion decreased 9% as organic sales declined 13%, offset partially by a portfolio benefit of 4% from the Spectrum acquisition. The organic sales decline reflected a 12% decrease in volume and a 1% decrease in price. At the line of business level, organic sales for semiconductor technologies were down high teens versus the year-ago period, resulting from a continuation of inventory destocking across the channel and, to a lesser extent, ongoing weak end-market demand and the impact of China trade restrictions.

轉向部門業績，從幻燈片7 上的E&I 開始。E&I 第三季淨銷售額為14 億美元，下降9%，有機銷售額下降13%，部分被Spectrum 收購帶來的4% 的投資組合收益所抵消。有機銷售額下降反映了銷量下降 12% 和價格下降 1%。在業務層面，半導體技術的有機銷售額與去年同期相比下降了十幾位數，這是由於整個通路持續去庫存，以及較小程度上持續疲軟的終端市場需求和中國貿易限制。

On a reported basis, semiconductor technology sales were flat sequentially in the third quarter.

根據報告，第三季半導體技術銷售較上季持平。

Within Interconnect Solutions, organic sales declined 11% year-over-year due to both volume and price declines, driven by the pass-through of lower metal pricing. Volume continued to be impacted by weak smartphone, PC and tablet demand, particularly in China, along with more moderate inventory destocking, which we believe is largely complete.

在互連解決方案領域，由於金屬價格下降的影響，銷量和價格均下降，有機銷售額較去年同期下降 11%。銷售量持續受到智慧型手機、個人電腦和平板電腦需求疲軟（尤其是在中國）的影響，以及較溫和的庫存去庫存（我們認為庫存去庫存已基本完成）。

On a sequential basis, the Interconnect business reported a second straight quarter of sales improvement, with sales up 8%, driven by seasonality as well as some underlying demand improvement within PCB markets. Organic sales for Industrial Solutions were down high single digits versus the year-ago period, due primarily to destocking within biopharma applications for our Liveo product line, and continued lower demand in electronics-related end markets. These declines were partially offset by increased demand for OLED display materials.

從環比來看，互連業務連續第二季實現銷售額成長，在季節性以及 PCB 市場潛在需求改善的推動下，銷售額成長了 8%。工業解決方案的有機銷售額與去年同期相比下降了高個位數，這主要是由於我們的 Liveo 產品線的生物製藥應用中的庫存減少，以及電子相關終端市場的需求持續下降。這些下降被 OLED 顯示材料需求的增加部分抵消。

Operating EBITDA for E&I of $383 million was down versus the year-ago period, primarily due to volume declines and lower operating rates to better align inventory with demand, slightly offset by a portfolio benefit related to Spectrum.

E&I 的營運 EBITDA 為 3.83 億美元，較上年同期下降，主要是由於銷售下降和開工率降低，以更好地調整庫存與需求，但與 Spectrum 相關的投資組合收益略有抵消。

Operating EBITDA margin increased 140 basis points sequentially during the third quarter.

第三季營運 EBITDA 利潤率季增 140 個基點。

Turning to Slide 8. W&P third quarter net sales of $1.4 billion declined 8% versus last year as volume decline of 9%, was slightly offset by a 1% increase in price due to the carryover impact of actions taken last year. Within Safety Solutions, organic sales were down high single digits, due primarily to channel inventory destocking. Shelter Solutions sales were down high single digits on an organic basis, driven by continued demand softness in construction markets and ongoing channel inventory destocking. On a sequential basis from the second quarter, shelter sales increased slightly, and we expect narrow year-over-year declines in fourth quarter.

轉向幻燈片 8。W&P 第三季淨銷售額為 14 億美元，較去年下降 8%，銷量下降 9%，但由於去年採取的行動的遺留影響，價格上漲 1%，略有抵消。在安全解決方案中，有機銷售額下降了高個位數，這主要是由於通路庫存去庫存。由於建築市場需求持續疲軟以及持續的通路庫存去庫存，住房解決方案的銷售額有機地下降了高個位數。與第二季相比，房屋銷售量較上季略有成長，我們預期第四季將年減幅度較小。

Organic sales for Water Solutions were down mid-single digits versus the year-ago period due primarily to inventory destocking, including with distributor customers and lower industrial project demand in China, mainly impacting reverse osmosis. We expect generally flat sequential volumes in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter.

與去年同期相比，水解決方案的有機銷售額下降了中個位數，這主要是由於庫存去庫存（包括分銷商客戶的庫存）以及中國工業項目需求的下降（主要影響了逆滲透）。我們預計第四季的連續銷售將與第三季基本持平。

Operating EBITDA for W&P during the third quarter of $362 million decreased versus the year-ago period due to lower volume, partially offset by the impact of net pricing benefit. Operating EBITDA margin of 25.6% increased 70 basis points year-over-year and 100 basis points sequentially from the second quarter.

由於銷售量下降，W&P 第三季的營業 EBITDA 為 3.62 億美元，較去年同期有所下降，但部分被淨定價效益的影響所抵銷。營運 EBITDA 利潤率為 25.6%，較去年同期成長 70 個基點，較第二季較上季成長 100 個基點。

Turning to Slide 9. I will close with a few comments on what we are seeing in the fourth quarter and how that translates to our full year 2023 guidance. Underlying consumer electronics demand in the fourth quarter is expected to be generally similar to the third quarter, with some sequential sales is expected in semiconductor technologies. As mentioned earlier, we saw additional channel inventory destocking and slower industrial demand in China, mainly impacting Water Solutions compared to prior expectations, and we assume these same trends to continue through the end of the year.

轉向幻燈片 9。最後，我將就我們在第四季度看到的情況以及如何將其轉化為我們的 2023 年全年指導進行一些評論。預計第四季度消費電子產品的基礎需求將與第三季基本相似，預計半導體技術領域將出現一些連續銷售。如前所述，與先前的預期相比，我們看到中國的渠道庫存去庫存增加和工業需求放緩，這主要影響了水解決方案，我們假設這些趨勢將持續到今年年底。

As a result of this incremental volume softness, we are adjusting our net sales and operating EBITDA guidance and now expect full year net sales to be about $12.17 billion and operating EBITDA to be at about $2.97 billion, which is at the low end of our prior range. For the fourth quarter, we expect net sales of approximately $3 billion, with a sequential decline versus third quarter, driven predominantly by additional inventory destocking in the Safety Solutions line of business and, to a lesser extent, by the impact of seasonality and incremental currency headwinds.

由於銷售量增量疲軟，我們正在調整淨銷售額和營業 EBITDA 指引，目前預計全年淨銷售額約為 121.7 億美元，營業 EBITDA 約為 29.7 億美元，處於我們之前預測的低端。範圍。我們預計第四季度的淨銷售額約為30 億美元，與第三季相比將環比下降，主要是由於安全解決方案業務線的額外庫存去庫存，以及在較小程度上受到季節性和增量貨幣的影響逆風。

We expect full year 2023 adjusted EPS to be approximately $3.45 per share, which is the midpoint of our prior guidance range.

我們預計 2023 年全年調整後每股收益約為 3.45 美元，這是我們先前指導範圍的中點。

With that, we are pleased to take your questions. And let me turn it back to the operator to open the Q&A.

因此，我們很高興回答您的問題。讓我將其返回給接線員以打開問答。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague of Virtual Research Partners -- Vertical Research Partners.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Virtual Research Partners – Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Sprague。

A lot going on in these channels, obviously. Do you have any kind of sense or how do you measure kind of your sell-in versus sell-through trying to kind of understand kind of what that incremental headwind is from inventory versus just kind of general demand trends? And maybe just a little bit of color on how much more you might have to do on inventory or production to kind of get things where you need them to be balanced out?

顯然，這些管道中發生了很多事情。您是否有任何感覺，或者您如何衡量您的銷售量與銷售量，試圖了解庫存與一般需求趨勢帶來的增量逆風是什麼？也許只是一點點顏色，你可能需要在庫存或生產上做更多的事情才能讓東西達到你需要的平衡？

Yes, Jeff, so we did a pretty detailed analysis of it. And I think a good way to look at it is what is our distributor customers doing versus our direct end customers. So maybe just to give you a couple of numbers on the W&P side of our business, about 50% of our volume goes through distribution and the other 50% we sell direct to customers. And so we did a whole analysis, obviously, because the distributors, you can see quick what's going on with them and almost across the board, the distributor network is destocking pretty broadly.

是的，傑夫，我們對此進行了非常詳細的分析。我認為看待這個問題的一個好方法是我們的經銷商客戶與我們的直接最終客戶的比較。因此，也許只是給您一些有關我們 W&P 業務的數字，我們大約 50% 的銷量經過分銷，另外 50% 的銷量我們直接銷售給客戶。因此，顯然，我們進行了全面分析，因為對於分銷商，您可以快速看到他們的情況，並且幾乎全面地，分銷商網絡正在相當廣泛地去庫存。

And it's, on a percentage basis, down significantly more than our direct customers. So just one, because it hit us this quarter, our water business in China, which is mostly reverse osmosis, was down 36%, as it goes through distribution, the rest we sell direct to customers. But the 1/3 of our sales that go through distributors in China, it was down 36%, through distribution, was down about 12% direct to the customer base. So if you do that analysis in our safety business, you get very similar trends going on. So clearly, the distributors are going through a destock. And I'm sure as we're approaching year-end, everyone is trying to get their inventories kind of where they want them.

從百分比來看，它的下降幅度比我們的直接客戶大得多。因此，只有一個，因為本季度我們受到了打擊，我們在中國的水業務（主要是反滲透）下降了 36%，因為它通過分銷，其餘部分我們直接銷售給客戶。但我們 1/3 的銷售額是透過中國分銷商進行的，下降了 36%，透過分銷直接面向客戶群的銷售額下降了約 12%。因此，如果您在我們的安全業務中進行這種分析，您會發現非常相似的趨勢。很明顯，分銷商正在減少庫存。我確信，隨著年底的臨近，每個人都在努力將庫存控制在他們想要的位置。

Now by the way, having said that, my take is that the destock obviously goes into the first quarter if we just started to see it in some of these W&P businesses. But I would think the distributors work it down fairly quickly after we're kind of exiting the first quarter. But that same trend applies almost across the board when you do that analysis. It's the distributors are way down vis-a-vis the direct customer channel.

順便說一句，話雖如此，我的看法是，如果我們剛開始在某些 W&P 業務中看到庫存減少，那麼顯然會進入第一季。但我認為，在我們退出第一季後，分銷商會很快解決這個問題。但當你進行分析時，同樣的趨勢幾乎適用於所有領域。與直接客戶管道相比，分銷商的地位要低得多。

And on the absorption question, we're still in the same general ballpark in the second half is where we were in the first half. There's a little bit of a mix, and we'll be taking a little less absorption headwinds in E&I and a little more in W&P as we see the destock continue as we head into the fourth quarter, but in total, the number is about equal to the first half.

關於吸收問題，下半場我們仍然處於與上半場相同的總體水平。有一些混合，我們將在 E&I 中承受更少的吸收阻力，而在 W&P 中承受更多的阻力，因為我們看到進入第四季度時庫存繼續減少，但總的來說，數量大致相等到上半場。

Great. And I was wondering if you could give us a little color on restructuring also, Ed, I think you mentioned $150 million run rate. I wasn't sure if that was full year 2024. But maybe just give us a sense of how much restructuring tail you have in '23, the incremental benefit you expect in '24? And as volumes kind of hopefully improve into 2024, some of that just kind of discretionary temporary stuff that kind of comes back into the P&L?

偉大的。我想知道您是否也可以給我們一些關於重組的信息，Ed，我想您提到了 1.5 億美元的運行率。我不確定這是否是 2024 年全年。但也許只是讓我們了解一下您在 23 年有多少重組尾部，您預計在 24 年會有多少增量收益？隨著 2024 年銷售量有望有所改善，其中一些只是可自由支配的臨時內容，會重新計入損益表中？

Yes. So on an annual basis, Jeff, we'll be about $150 million of savings, kind of spread between plant fixed costs and functional costs or mostly G&A expense, not touching R&D at all. And by the way, just to back up on that, Lori and I have been looking at this kind of how we can do some restructuring for over a year. So we're not doing it just in response to what's going on. I think I would have said on other earnings calls, we started looking at it actually a summer ago how could we streamline a little bit before?

是的。因此，傑夫，我們每年將節省約 1.5 億美元，這是工廠固定成本和功能成本之間的差額，或主要是一般管理費用，根本不涉及研發。順便說一句，為了支持這一點，洛里和我一年多來一直在研究如何進行一些重組。因此，我們這樣做不僅僅是為了應對正在發生的事情。我想我會在其他財報電話會議上說，我們實際上是在夏天前開始研究這個問題的，我們怎麼能在之前簡化一點呢？

So we're ready with that. We'll start seeing the benefits on the restructuring in the -- towards the tail end of first quarter. We'll get going on it by the middle of December. So by time it hits, we get things going, and you'll start to see the benefit then. So you'll kind of get 3/4 of the benefit for a big chunk of that in 2024. A little bit of that would potentially come back on the fixed costs -- the plant fixed cost side as volumes pick up, but not all of it.

所以我們已經準備好了。我們將在第一季末開始看到重組的好處。我們將在 12 月中旬開始進行。因此，當它到來時，我們就會開始行動，然後您就會開始看到好處。因此，到 2024 年，您將獲得其中很大一部分收益的 3/4。其中的一小部分可能會在固定成本上得到回報——隨著產量的增加，工廠固定成本方面，但不是全部它的。

So you'll get a little bit of it coming back in as we see the volumes lift, but that's basically the program.

因此，當我們看到成交量上升時，你會得到一些回饋，但這基本上就是計劃。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Davis of Milius Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Milius Research 的 Scott Davis。

A couple of things. I mean, just to follow up on Jeff's question because it just seems like it's so important and topical for you guys. I mean there's kind of 2 reasons why people destock inventory, right? I mean one is maybe the lead times come down, and they feel like they can get it fast. And 2 is they're really worried about their customers not wanting product. And I'm talking at the distribution level, not your direct. What do you think are the main drivers of this kind of incremental because we've been talking about the inventory destock for several quarters now. And this quarter seems like it almost got a little bit worse, particularly in water and protection.

有幾件事。我的意思是，我只是想跟進傑夫的問題，因為這對你們來說似乎非常重要和熱門。我的意思是人們減少庫存有兩個原因，對吧？我的意思是，可能交貨時間會縮短，他們覺得自己可以快速完成。第二是他們真的擔心客戶不需要產品。我說的是經銷層面，而不是直接層面。您認為這種增量的主要驅動因素是什麼，因為我們已經討論了幾個季度的庫存去庫存。本季的情況似乎變得更糟，特別是在水和保護方面。

Yes. Scott, I'd just give you a ballpark in my thinking. I think 2/3 of it, or 75%, something like that is really that the supply chain healed itself. It's pretty darn normal for everybody again. So everyone sat on excess inventory. I mean, look, we're doing the same thing. We had 151% cash conversion. We're lowering our inventory levels because we have built up more than what normally would during COVID, and every other CEO I talk to is doing the same thing. So -- and by the way, I think as the pressure you're getting near the end of your year, you're really trying to get things in line for 2024. So I think a big part of it is that. But there's certainly as a percent of people just more worried is there a recession coming. You got an inverted yield curve for 18 months. People start getting nervous as always been in a recession. So I can't say that's not -- if that's in there.

是的。斯科特，我只是給你一個我的大致想法。我認為其中 2/3，或 75%，類似的事情實際上是供應鏈自我修復的。這對每個人來說都是非常正常的。所以每個人都持有過剩的庫存。我的意思是，看，我們正在做同樣的事情。我們的現金轉換率為 151%。我們正在降低庫存水平，因為我們的庫存水平比新冠疫情期間的正常水平要高，而且我採訪過的所有其他執行長也在做同樣的事情。所以，順便說一句，我認為隨著年底的壓力越來越大，你真的在​​努力讓 2024 年的事情保持一致。所以我認為其中很大一部分是這樣的。但肯定有一部分人更擔心經濟衰退即將到來。你得到了長達 18 個月的反向殖利率曲線。人們開始變得緊張，就像經濟衰退時期一樣。所以我不能說那不是——如果那在那裡的話。

But I think the bigger part of it is we just all build excess inventory. We got what we can get during COVID. And probably I'll give you one example because we're seeing some destocking on the metal packaging side. A year ago, I had most of the CEOs of the medical device companies personally call me, pleading that we could ship more Tyvek material for packaging so they could shift their products out.

但我認為更重要的部分是我們都建立了過剩的庫存。我們在新冠疫情期間得到了我們能得到的東西。也許我會給你一個例子，因為我們看到金屬包裝方面的庫存減少。一年前，大多數醫療器材公司的執行長都親自給我打電話，懇求我們可以運送更多的 Tyvek 包裝材料，以便他們可以將產品轉移出去。

And I remember telling them all, in fact, I sent a letter to the trade industry. I said our shipments to you are up 18% so far this year. I mean, I can't do much more. And that was everyone scrambling to get it and then they overshot. And now I probably shouldn't be surprised, we're seeing some destocking on the medical packaging side. So I think that's just a great example. That has nothing to do with the recession, that's just everyone had too much.

我記得我告訴他們，事實上，我給貿易業發了一封信。我說過今年到目前為止我們對你們的出貨量增加了 18%。我的意思是，我不能做更多的事情。那是每個人都爭先恐後地想要得到它，然後他們就超越了。現在我可能不應該感到驚訝，我們看到醫療包裝方面的庫存有所減少。所以我認為這只是一個很好的例子。這與經濟衰退無關，只是每個人都承受太多了。

Yes. That's great color and makes a lot of sense. I want to ask about price. And I know the 2 segments are just way different. E&I, you kind of manage price versus cost, and W&P maybe there's a little bit of a different price strategy. But when you think about like this new normal of higher inflation, wages, other costs, not explicitly material costs, but other costs, how do you think about price in kind of a future construct, meaning kind of maybe entering into 2024? It's probably more of a valid question for W&P, but maybe you can address for both segments and give us a little bit of sense of what...

是的。這是很棒的顏色，而且很有意義。我想問一下價格。我知道這兩個部分完全不同。 E&I，你可以管理價格與成本，而 W&P 可能有一些不同的價格策略。但是，當你考慮這種更高的通貨膨脹、工資和其他成本（不是明確的材料成本，而是其他成本）的新常態時，你如何看待未來結構中的價格，這意味著可能會進入2024年？對於 W&P 來說，這可能是一個更有效的問題，但也許你可以解決這兩個部分，並讓我們稍微了解一下...

Yes, Scott, I don't think 2024 will be what you'd consider a normal year. In a normal environment, a few years in a row just normal things, which we haven't had in 4 years for anybody, I would -- we would always get like 1.5% to 2% price lift in the W&P business. Our goal in 2024 is to hold on to as much pricing as we can. And you obviously see us and others were getting benefits from price/cost spread that we saw in the third quarter, which helped us out. We'll obviously see it in the fourth quarter.

是的，史考特，我認為 2024 年不會是你認為的正常年份。在正常的環境下，連續幾年都是正常的事情，我們已經4 年來沒有為任何人經歷過這種情況了，我會——我們的W&P 業務總是會獲得1.5% 到2% 的價格上漲。我們 2024 年的目標是盡可能保持定價不變。您顯然可以看到我們和其他人從第三季看到的價格/成本價差中受益，這幫助我們擺脫了困境。我們顯然會在第四季看到這一點。

So our goal is to really manage that well for 2024 because there's still quite a bit there. Now we're not going to get all the costs back by renegotiating contracts. Everyone's trying to hold price of our vendors are trying to hold it too. But we're still up to about $225 million that we've gotten back that we -- so I mean, that's pretty significant for us. And so we're hoping to hold that for next year. My gut is we're going to give up some pricing in the shelter business because we don't want to lose market share. But a lot of the other businesses will really be managing that tightly.

所以我們的目標是在 2024 年真正做到這一點，因為還有很多事情要做。現在我們不會透過重新談判合約來收回所有成本。每個人都在努力維持價格，我們的供應商也努力維持價格。但我們仍能收回約 2.25 億美元——所以我的意思是，這對我們來說非常重要。因此，我們希望明年能保持這一勢頭。我的直覺是，我們將放棄庇護所業務的一些定價，因為我們不想失去市場份額。但許多其他企業確實會嚴格管理。

But then if we ever get -- we get back to normal time, hopefully, 2025, we would look at that 1.5% to 2% price increase. And then electronics, we just try to hold about flat. And usually, we're flat to down 1%, but you get nice volume lift.

但如果我們回到正常時間，希望在 2025 年，我們會考慮 1.5% 到 2% 的價格上漲。然後是電子產品，我們只是試著保持平穩。通常情況下，我們會持平至下降 1%，但成交量會得到不錯的提升。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫圖薩。

Can you just update us on what you actually expect for -- what was the price/cost spread this quarter and what you expect now for the year?

您能否向我們介紹一下您的實際預期—本季的價格/成本差是多少以及您現在對今年的預期？

Yes. So our full year number, we ticked up to $225 million versus the last quarter, we had expected about $140 million. So we're seeing that deflation benefit come through in the back half. So in the third quarter, we saw net about $75 million benefit. We'll see that tick up to around $100 million in the fourth quarter.

是的。因此，我們的全年數字達到了 2.25 億美元，而上個季度我們預計約為 1.4 億美元。所以我們看到通貨緊縮的好處在後半段顯現出來。因此，在第三季度，我們看到淨收益約為 7500 萬美元。我們將看到第四季這一數字將升至 1 億美元左右。

And so does some of that carry into next year?

那麼其中一些會延續到明年嗎？

Yes -- yes, the spread will continue into next year with the caveat that we don't place not as an earlier comment what the price is going to do. But we do expect the deflation benefit to continue because it took its time to get through inventory this year.

是的——是的，價差將持續到明年，但我們不會提前評論價格走勢。但我們確實預期通貨緊縮的好處將持續，因為今年需要時間消化庫存。

Got it. And then just kind of a philosophical question on how you think about next year. I mean, your exit rate now on some of these businesses just from a revenue perspective, is more negative, you're taking revenue down. You talked about some of it being destock, which is effectively an easier comp next year in the second half of the year. I mean, do you think with this profile that you guys can still grow revenues next year?

知道了。然後是一個關於你如何看待明年的哲學問題。我的意思是，僅從收入角度來看，您現在對其中一些業務的退出率更為負面，您正在減少收入。您談到其中一些是去庫存，這實際上是明年下半年更容易的補償。我的意思是，你認為有了這個資料，你們明年仍然可以增加收入嗎？

Yes, yes. I think the first quarter, Steve, to your comment, will be light, more similar to the fourth quarter because I don't think the destock will end, but back quick, but the distributors will move very fast. They just stop ordering it for a while. They literally -- we've talked directly to them and they're like, just don't ship me something for a few months, and then we'll be back on track. So yes, I think the first quarter will be on the light side, but I think after that, we'll see some nice lift.

是的是的。史蒂夫，根據您的評論，我認為第一季將會很輕鬆，與第四季度更相似，因為我認為去庫存不會結束，但會很快恢復，但分銷商的行動會非常快。他們只是暫時停止訂購。他們確實 - 我們已經直接與他們交談，他們就像，幾個月內不要給我寄東西，然後我們就會回到正軌。所以，是的，我認為第一季的情況會比較樂觀，但我認為在那之後，我們會看到一些不錯的提升。

I would certainly by then, the electronics part of our business, which you know is highly profitable, I think will be back to a really nice lift. Just on the semi side, the fabs are running a little below 70% utilization. I think if you do the math on what the industry is thinking, they're going to kind of get up as the year goes more to 80% utilization the following year, more like the 90% where you would run at. So you'll start to see some -- on a percentage basis, some pretty nice lift. And then we've had 2 quarters in a row of ICS lifting. So it's clearly off the bottom. That will, I think, continue to grow as we go through next year.

到那時，我肯定會看到我們業務的電子部分，你知道它利潤很高，我認為這將恢復到非常好的成長狀態。就半成品而言，晶圓廠的使用率略低於 70%。我認為，如果你對行業的想法進行數學計算，隨著第二年的利用率達到 80%，他們將會有所上升，更像是你所期望的 90%。所以你會開始看到一些——以百分比為基礎，一些相當不錯的提升。然後我們連續兩個季度 ICS 提升。所以很明顯已經脫離底部了。我認為，隨著明年的到來，這一數字將繼續增長。

So I think you're kind of through the electronics one, although we're kind of now doing a destock on the W&P side. And remember, we're mostly short cycle, so we'll see it first. And then, I think, by the second quarter, you'll see a lot of that destock over with, and you'll see the volume lift.

因此，我認為您已經完成了電子產品的工作，儘管我們現在正在減少 W&P 方面的庫存。請記住，我們大多是短週期的，所以我們會先看到它。然後，我認為，到第二季度，你會看到大量的庫存減少，並且銷售量會有所提升。

One last one for you. I mean, you've been through a few cycles, DuPont having, I guess, high-single-digit to even double-digit organic volume declines. I mean, are we already in a recession here in your mind?

最後一張送給你。我的意思是，你已經經歷了幾個週期，我猜杜邦的有機銷售出現了高個位數甚至兩位數的下降。我的意思是，在您看來，我們已經陷入衰退了嗎？

I'm trying to -- 1 foot in, yes. I've been there for a while, by the way. I track a lot of economic indicators, as I said earlier, when you see the yield curve where it's been and all, there's always been a recession. So I like to manage, I guess, conservatively. So I've been telling the team for a long time, just prepare for a softer environment. And if we're wrong, great, we'll have done all the right actions to position ourselves. But yes, I think there was -- this quarter just reading all the results from companies I saw, they were pretty mixed. And people were mostly missing on the volume, not on their EBITDA.

我正在嘗試-- 1英尺，是的。順便說一句，我已經在那裡待了一段時間了。正如我之前所說，我追蹤了許多經濟指標，當你看到殖利率曲線所處的位置時，你會發現經濟衰退總是存在的。所以我想，我喜歡保守地管理。所以我很久以來一直告訴團隊，為更溫和的環境做好準備。如果我們錯了，那很好，我們會採取所有正確的行動來定位自己。但是，是的，我認為有 - 本季剛剛閱讀了我所看到的公司的所有業績，它們的情況非常複雜。人們大多忽略了銷售量，而不是 EBITDA。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Leithead of Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的邁克爾·萊特黑德（Michael Leithead）。

On the Delrin sale, can you maybe speak to why this monetization structure was sort of the best ultimate outcome? And then relatedly, maybe for Lori, when should we expect the note receivable to accrue? Or I guess, when do you get that $350 million in cash?

關於 Delrin 的銷售，您能否談談為什麼這種貨幣化結構是最好的最終結果？然後相關地，也許對洛里來說，我們應該什麼時候應收票據應計？或者我猜，你什麼時候能拿到那 3.5 億美元現金？

Yes. So we liked it. Look, we sold Delrin in a tougher environment than when we sold the rest of M&M. So this optimized what we could get for the asset over a few year period. We're getting $1.2 some billion upfront. We're writing 20% equity in it. TJC has a phenomenal track record. So my gut is we have some nice upside coming from the retained interest that we have in the business, that's to be proved out, but I'm highly confident in that. It is a good business. It should do well over the next few years. So we think that optimizes our position.

是的。所以我們喜歡它。看，我們出售 Delrin 的環境比出售其餘 M&M 時更艱難。因此，這優化了我們在幾年內可以獲得的資產。我們將獲得 1.2 億美元的預付款。我們正在其中寫入 20% 的股權。 TJC 擁有非凡的業績記錄。因此，我的直覺是，我們對業務的保留興趣帶來了一些不錯的優勢，這一點有待證明，但我對此非常有信心。這是一門好生意。它應該在未來幾年表現良好。所以我們認為這優化了我們的地位。

So we sold it at $1.8 billion in value. My gut is we can end up nicely above that with the equity that we have. So -- and by the way, it just goes to our whole capital allocation strategy. It was not a business we wanted to be in long term, even though it's a good business. We're taking the volatility out of the portfolio, and we'll redeploy that cash. And as we said in our prepared remarks, we will actually do more share repurchase after the ASR ends next year because we're in a great balance sheet position, and we'll have good free cash flow, and we plan on buying back more shares.

所以我們以 18 億美元的價格出售了它。我的直覺是，憑藉我們所擁有的股權，我們最終可以遠高於這個目標。順便說一下，這涉及到我們的整個資本配置策略。儘管這是一項很好的業務，但從長遠來看，這並不是我們想要的業務。我們正在消除投資組合中的波動性，並重新部署這些現金。正如我們在準備好的演講中所說，我們實際上將在明年ASR 結束後進行更多股票回購，因為我們的資產負債表狀況良好，我們將擁有良好的自由現金流，並且我們計劃回購更多股票分享。

Yes. And Michael, on the debt. So we gave them a $350 million loan. It's an 8-year loan, if the venture were to go that long. So like normally, they would monetize quicker than that, then we would get the repayment of the loan. So if it went to the longest poll, it would be 8 years, but it's most likely not the reality.

是的。還有邁克爾，負債累累。所以我們給了他們 3.5 億美元的貸款。如果合資企業要持續那麼久的話，這是一筆為期八年的貸款。所以像平常一樣，他們的貨幣化速度會比這更快，然後我們就能償還貸款。因此，如果進行最長的民意調查，那將是8年，但這很可能不是現實。

Great. That's super helpful. And then second, I was hoping maybe you could give us a bit more color on the moving pieces within the Corporate and Other segment. I assume the retained businesses are doing fairly well in the auto backdrop. So can you speak to what's kind of the moving pieces there? And should we expect that business to continue to deliver some level of double-digit millions of EBITDA?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。其次，我希望您能為我們提供更多有關企業和其他領域的動態內容的資訊。我認為保留的業務在汽車行業表現相當不錯。那麼您能談談那裡有哪些活動嗎？我們是否應該期望該業務繼續提供一定水準的兩位數百萬的 EBITDA？

Yes. So the business is just for a refresher that are in corporate or primarily the auto adhesives business, and then we have Tedlar and Multibase but the largest end market served is automotive, and there's a large EV exposure there. So we saw a nice mid-single-digit volume growth again. We expect for a full year from a volume growth perspective the auto adhesives to grow up in the high single digits, and we continue to expect really great things from that business with the EV penetration that we've seen.

是的。因此，該業務只是為了複習一下企業或主要是汽車黏合劑業務，然後我們有 Tedlar 和 Multibase，但服務的最大終端市場是汽車，並且那裡有大量的電動車業務。因此，我們再次看到了中等個位數的銷售成長。從銷售成長的角度來看，我們預計全年汽車黏合劑將以高個位數成長，並且我們繼續期望該業務隨著我們所看到的電動車滲透率而取得真正的偉大成果。

So from an earnings perspective, they were up very nicely as well. We saw nice earnings growth and margin appreciation in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, we have a little bit of a deceleration, just a lot of their exposure is in the U.S. with automotive. So there's some headwind from the strike that fortunately is now over, but there will be a little bit of a headwind from the October impact. And then the U.S. car build right now from IHS are expected to be down. But overall, the trajectory of this business is really strong. They had a great 2023, and we expect a really strong 2024 again.

因此，從獲利角度來看，它們的成長也非常好。我們在第三季度看到了良好的獲利成長和利潤率上升。在第四季度，我們有一點減速，只是他們的大部分業務都在美國的汽車領域。因此，罷工帶來了一些阻力，幸運的是現在已經結束，但十月的影響也會帶來一些阻力。然後，IHS 預計目前美國的汽車產量將會下降。但整體而言，這項業務的發展軌跡確實強勁。他們度過了美好的 2023 年，我們預計 2024 年將會再次強勁。

Your next question comes from the line of John McNulty of BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

So it looks like the electronics end markets seem like they're starting to stabilize a little bit. You expect semi technologies to be up quarter-over-quarter. Can you add some color on what you expect from the other 2 subsectors in the E&I division? Do you see normal 4Q seasonality? Is there maybe a little bit of destock in the Industrial Solutions side? I guess, can you help us to think about the trends there?

因此，電子產品終端市場似乎開始趨於穩定。您預計半導體技術將環比增長。您能否對 E&I 部門其他 2 個子部門的期望添加一些色彩？您認為第四季的季節性正常嗎？工業解決方案方面是否可能會減少一些庫存？我想，你能幫助我們思考那裡的趨勢嗎？

Yes. So semi will lift a little bit. So I would still say bounce along the bottom, but getting through the destock. And when I say a little bit, a few percentage points sequentially up in the business. The ICS business will be down some, but that's all seasonality. If you look at it just the normal drop you see in seasonality, it's less. So the business continues maybe a few more points to improve after the last 2 quarters of improvement. So kind of less seasonality because the business is recovering.

是的。所以半會再提升一點。所以我仍然會說沿著底部反彈，但要經歷去庫存的過程。當我說一點點時，業務連續上升了幾個百分點。 ICS 業務將會下降，但這都是季節性的。如果你只看季節性的正常下降，那就會少一些。因此，在過去兩個季度的改善之後，業務可能會繼續改善一些點。由於業務正在復甦，季節性因素較少。

And then on the industrial part of E&I, we'll definitely see a little bit of destocking there. The biopharma destocking, which is in that business picked up some during the quarter. So I expect that to continue into the fourth quarter and hopefully be kind of done by them with that. And there's just a little bit of other destocking going along with some of our distributors in that business. So nothing significant, but I think that will see a little bit of softness.

然後在 E&I 的工業部分，我們肯定會看到那裡的庫存減少。該業務中的生物製藥去庫存本季有所回升。因此，我預計這種情況將持續到第四季度，並希望他們能夠做到這一點。我們的一些分銷商也在進行一些其他的庫存削減工作。所以沒什麼重要的，但我認為會看到一點軟化。

Got it. Okay. And then maybe just as a follow-up. I think as we get to kind of mid-December, the opt-out period should be kind of done on the PFAS side. I guess, can you give us any update on the water district settlement? Is there anything that you can speak to at this point? It seems like that should put a lot of kind of the pressures behind you, but I guess any update there would be helpful.

知道了。好的。然後也許只是作為後續行動。我認為，當我們到 12 月中旬時，PFAS 方面應該完成選擇退出期。我想，您能為我們介紹一下水區解決方案的最新情況嗎？此時您有什麼可以說的嗎？看起來這應該會給你帶來很多壓力，但我想任何更新都會有幫助。

Yes. So we -- the date that's coming up here is the deadline for the opt-outs is December 4. And then we will see a list of who the opt-outs are on December 6. And then there's a final fairness hearing in South Carolina on December 14. So it's all kind of happening that first 2 weeks of December. And I really can't add any other color. I just don't have any other facts in front of me.

是的。所以我們 - 這裡即將到來的日期是選擇退出的最後期限是 12 月 4 日。然後我們將在 12 月 6 日看到選擇退出的名單。然後在南卡羅來納州舉行最終的公平聽證會12 月14 日。所以這一切都發生在12 月的前兩週。我真的無法添加任何其他顏色。我面前沒有任何其他事實。

We're feeling obviously very good about it, and highly confident that this will get signed off and get done. And I'd just add, obviously, people are talking to the key water districts around the country. So we're feeling good, and hopefully, we're close to getting that cemented.

我們顯然對此感覺非常好，並且非常有信心這將得到批准並完成。我想補充一點，顯然，人們正在與全國各地的主要水區進行交談。所以我們感覺很好，希望我們已經接近鞏固這一點。

Your next question comes from the line of David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的大衛貝格萊特。

Restructuring -- do you have any more color you can provide some more concrete examples of where that $150 million is going to come from?

重組—您是否可以提供一些更具體的例子來說明這 1.5 億美元將來自哪裡？

Yes. So we had mentioned that it will primarily come from plant fixed costs and then the G&A or the functional cost to the overhead fracture of the company. So the plant fixed cost is really a function of the destocking and what we can do from a volume perspective. So looking hard at contractors, looking hard at the plant fixed costs spends, looking hard at making sure that we can temporarily adjust our cost structure to the line with the volume environment that we're seeing. And then on kind of the SARD side or the functional costs, general and administrative, that's just continued weaning out. So as Ed had mentioned, we're constantly looking to make sure that we're running to lead in an efficient organization as possible. So that's where the focus will be.

是的。所以我們提到，它主要來自工廠固定成本，然後是一般管理費用或公司管理費用的功能成本。因此，工廠固定成本實際上是去庫存以及我們從數量角度可以做的事情的函數。因此，要認真研究承包商，認真研究工廠的固定成本支出，努力確保我們可以暫時調整我們的成本結構，以適應我們所看到的數量環境。然後，在 SARD 方面或功能成本、一般成本和管理成本方面，這種情況正在持續減少。正如艾德所提到的，我們不斷尋求確保我們盡可能領導一個有效率的組織。這就是焦點所在。

We really won't be touching R&D and marketing and sales. So we believe this destocking period is temporary, and so we really need to be prepared when it comes back on the other side to be able to take advantage of the upside. So that really won't be the focus to be more on the plant costs and the functional spend.

我們真的不會涉及研發、行銷和銷售。因此，我們認為這個去庫存期是暫時的，因此我們確實需要做好準備，以便在另一端回歸時能夠利用上行空間。因此，這實際上不會成為更多關注工廠成本和功能支出的焦點。

Understood. And then just on interconnects and semis, did you gain any share this year? Or is there any new technology products in the pipeline that you think can grow share this year or next year?

明白了。那麼，僅在互連和半成品方面，您今年是否獲得了任何份額？或者您認為有哪些正在醞釀中的新科技產品可以在今年或明年增加份額？

Yes. So there's examples in both. So within semi, really around the packaging side, we've seen some nice share gains. And also just in general, we've seen an uptick on the advanced new components. And so if you actually look at our performance in the quarter, we had nice growth with TSMC as they continue to expand their advanced nodes and take advantage of the AI revolution. So we saw nice growth on the semi side. And then within ICS, we had a new application with one of the large smartphone producers, which took advantage of a material that crossed over our metallization business to be able to have a key win there. So that was part of the sequential growth that we saw in the quarter and will continue to be. It's on every single model of the phone for the one producer, so it's a nice...

是的。所以兩者都有例子。因此，在半成品領域，實際上是在包裝方面，我們看到了一些不錯的份額成長。總的來說，我們看到先進的新組件增加。因此，如果您實際查看我們本季的業績，您會發現我們與台積電的合作取得了良好的成長，因為他們繼續擴展其先進節點並利用人工智慧革命。所以我們看到了半邊的良好成長。然後在 ICS 中，我們與一家大型智慧型手機生產商合作推出了一項新應用，該應用利用了一種跨越我們金屬化業務的材料，從而能夠在那裡取得關鍵勝利。因此，這是我們在本季看到的連續成長的一部分，並將繼續如此。它出現在同一個生產商的每個手機型號上，所以這是一個很好的...

Your next question comes from the line of Aleksey Yefremov of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

This is Ryan in for Aleksey. My first question comes around the Shelter Solutions business. Just in terms of where do you think we are in the destocking cycle there in demand? And then how good is your visibility into 2024 here?

這是瑞恩（Ryan）代替阿列克西（Aleksey）。我的第一個問題是關於庇護所解決方案業務的。就您認為我們處於需求去庫存週期的哪個階段而言？那麼您對 2024 年的了解程度如何？

Yes. So we saw less of a year-over-year headwind in shelter in the third quarter versus what we saw in the first half that we feel like things are starting to normalize a little bit and then our expectations for the fourth quarter are to see less volume declines what we're seeing year-to-date. So it feels like things are normalizing a little bit. Obviously, there's a little bit of disparity from a market perspective between the resi and the commercial side.

是的。因此，與上半年相比，我們在第三季度看到的庇護所方面的同比逆風有所減少，我們覺得事情開始有點正常化，然後我們對第四季度的預期會減少我們今年迄今看到的銷量有所下降。所以感覺事情正在一點點正常化。顯然，從市場角度來看，再生資源和商業方面存在一些差異。

A lot of the growth that was on the commercial side is more in commercial applications where we don't have a big footprint like, for example, around the data centers. Our exposure in commercial is more around education and health care and government, where there hasn't been that step change growth, it's really been more on the data center side. But in general, it feels like we're nearing the end of the significant downturns. We expect the volumes in the fourth quarter to be more down in the mid-single digits versus the double digits that we've seen all year. So it feels like it's starting to normalize, and we do believe that destock is now behind us. So now it's just a function of when the demand returned.

商業方面的許多增長更多地發生在商業應用程式中，我們在這些應用程式中沒有很大的足跡，例如在資料中心周圍。我們在商業領域的業務更圍繞著教育、醫療保健和政府，這些領域並沒有出現階躍變化的成長，實際上更多的是在資料中心方面。但總的來說，我們覺得經濟衰退已接近尾聲。我們預計第四季的銷量將比全年的兩位數下降更多。所以感覺它開始正常化，我們確實相信去庫存現在已經過去了。所以現在它只是需求何時恢復的函數。

Okay. Very helpful. And then just a question for me on -- you mentioned China trade restrictions and the impact it had on the semiconductor technologies business. Wondering if you might be able to quantify that impact there. And then just any updated view on the recently announced restrictions there?

好的。很有幫助。然後問我一個問題——您提到了中國的貿易限制及其對半導體技術業務的影響。想知道您是否能夠量化那裡的影響。那麼對最近宣布的限制有什麼最新看法嗎？

Yes. So no change to our current view of about $60 million of a revenue headwind from the exposure. So a lot of our...

是的。因此，我們目前認為該風險敞口將帶來約 6,000 萬美元收入逆風的觀點並沒有改變。所以我們很多...

For the year.

今年。

For the year, yes. So it's about $15 million a quarter. So a lot of the restrictions have more been in the advanced node spaces that we don't have a huge footprint with the Chinese players from that perspective. So it's only about $60 million for us.

今年，是的。所以每季大約是 1500 萬美元。因此，許多限制更存在於高階節點領域，從這個角度來看，我們與中國玩家的關係並不大。所以對我們來說只有大約 6000 萬美元。

Your next question comes from line of Josh Spector of UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的喬許·史佩克特（Josh Spector）。

So I just wanted to ask on fourth quarter. I mean it kind of seems like the puck is moving around in different areas in terms of destocking. But if I heard you right, your sales guidance is kind of flattish in the different segments sequentially. Semis is picking up, which has the highest drop-through, and you're expecting some higher raw material benefits. So what would drive EBITDA down sequentially $20 million, $25 million versus flat to up?

所以我只想問第四季的情況。我的意思是，在去庫存方面，冰球似乎正在不同的領域移動。但如果我沒聽錯的話，你的銷售指導在不同的細分市場上依次是持平的。半成品正在回升，其下降率最高，您預計會有更高的原料效益。那麼，什麼會導致 EBITDA 環比下降 2000 萬美元、2500 萬美元而不是持平上升呢？

Yes. So we see the underlying revenue down about $100 million once you -- on an organic basis. So we will get another quarter of the Spectrum business first, third quarter. But if you take that out, we see underlying organic revenue down about $100 million. So it's about split between seasonality and currency being about half of the headwind with the seasonality being within the -- primarily the smartphone and consumer electronics business in ICS and Shelter as they strength throughout the summer months. And then currency, we do see as a bit of a headwind sequentially.

是的。因此，我們發現基本收入在有機基礎上下降了約 1 億美元。因此，我們將在第一季、第三季獲得另一個季度的頻譜業務。但如果剔除這一點，我們會發現潛在的有機收入下降了約 1 億美元。因此，季節性和貨幣之間的差距大約是逆風的一半，季節性主要是 ICS 和 Shelter 的智慧型手機和消費性電子業務，因為它們在整個夏季都在走強。然後是貨幣，我們確實認為接下來會遇到一些阻力。

And then the other half of it is from the medical packaging piece that Ed had mentioned earlier. So we do see some medical packaging pullback in the fourth quarter as those device makers destock from the overbuy that happened over the recent quarters.

而另一半則來自艾德之前提到的醫療包裝。因此，隨著這些設備製造商因最近幾季發生的過度購買而減少庫存，我們確實看到第四季度醫療包裝出現一些回落。

So it's really just -- then the EBITDA, you have a net benefit from additional spreads. We have mentioned there's about $25 million of additional benefit from spread, but that $100 million impact from the volume decline kind of net you out to the surrounding the [$50] million that we guided to for the fourth quarter versus the $775 million that we posted in the third quarter.

所以這實際上只是 - 那麼 EBITDA，你從額外的利差中獲得了淨收益。我們已經提到，價差帶來了大約 2500 萬美元的額外收益，但是成交量下降帶來的 1 億美元的影響相當於我們第四季度指導的 5000 萬美元，而我們公佈的 7.75 億美元在第三季。

Okay. I appreciate that. And I mean, just if you kind of come back to electronics and semis. I think Ed, you said utilization rates in the mid-70s. I think we've maybe troughed in the high 60s, but you guys haven't really felt as much of that pickup. I guess, as you look at things improving, how much semi is reconnecting your business year-on-year just from a reconnection to where the rate is now? I mean, is that mid-single digits or higher, just on where we're run rating now past inventory? Or it'd be a different math to get to a different level?

好的。我很感激。我的意思是，如果你回到電子和半成品領域。我想艾德，你說的是 70 年代中期的利用率。我認為我們可能在 60 年代就已經陷入低谷，但你們並沒有真正感受到這種回升。我想，當您看到情況有所改善時，從重新連接到現在的速度，半年重新連接您的業務有多少？我的意思是，這個數字是中位數還是更高，就在我們現在對庫存的評級上？或者要達到不同的程度需要不同的數學？

Well, the fats have been -- to your point, have been running kind of if you lump them all together, I think you would average out in the high 60s. And I think if you go through all the projections out there and also talking to our customers, that high 60s is going to ramp through 2024 up to -- by the time you get maybe in the third quarter, beginning the fourth quarter up to maybe a little over 80%. So you still won't be back according to projections to kind of over 90% till you enter into 2025.

嗯，就你的觀點而言，如果你把它們全部放在一起，脂肪一直在運行，我想你的平均水平會在 60 多歲。我認為，如果你仔細考慮所有的預測，並與我們的客戶交談，那麼到2024 年，這個數字將上升到60 多歲，到第三季、第四季開始時，可能會達到60多歲。略高於80%。因此，根據預測，直到 2025 年，您的回歸率仍不會超過 90%。

But again, going from high 60s to 80% is a nice lift during the year. And then more of that production will be advanced nodes, which back to Lori's point a minute ago, plays to our strength that's usually why we outgrow 200- to 300-basis-point what the market is doing. But it's also -- by the way, you also got to look customer by customer on the semi side because some are still -- we're shipping out of inventory. But all the signs I saw from all their reporting publicly, they've seen their bottom, it looks like, pretty much across the board. But I don't think the lift will be dramatic in the -- at the beginning of the year. But I think as the year sequences, we'll see nice lift occurring in that business.

但同樣，從 60% 上升到 80% 在這一年中是一個不錯的提升。然後更多的生產將是先進的節點，這回到洛里一分鐘前的觀點，發揮我們的優勢，這通常就是為什麼我們的成長超過市場正在做的 200 到 300 個基點。但順便說一句，你還必須逐一查看半成品的客戶，因為有些仍然是我們的庫存不足。但我從他們所有的公開報道中看到的所有跡象表明，他們已經看到了底部，看起來幾乎全面見底。但我認為今年年初的漲幅不會很大。但我認為隨著時間的推移，我們將看到該業務出現良好的提升。

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

A couple of questions here. First on the distributor part of the supply chain, not just for you, but for pretty much everybody seems to have taken it more on the chin with the overstocking and then the destocking. Do you have a sense of whether that was just they were a little too over (inaudible) with principal risk loading up? And then on the way back down, is the issue just that they don't have the same access to credit or just the higher rates? And I guess what I'm getting at is, do you think, over time, your terms with distribution and maybe some of your other customers are going to need to change in a way that might require you to hold more working capital or to give them incentives to move it along? And I guess I'm just sort of asking what's going to ultimately break the logjam of the game of hot potato, or nobody wanting to hold inventory?

這裡有幾個問題。首先是供應鏈的經銷商部分，不僅對你來說，而且對幾乎每個人來說，似乎都對庫存過剩和庫存減少感到更加擔憂。您是否知道這是否只是他們在主要風險增加的情況下有點太過了（聽不清楚）？然後在回落的過程中，問題只是他們沒有相同的信貸機會還是只是更高的利率？我想我想說的是，您是否認為，隨著時間的推移，您的分銷條款以及您的其他一些客戶是否需要以某種方式進行改變，這可能需要您持有更多的營運資金或給予他們有動力繼續前進嗎？我想我只是想問什麼才能最終打破燙手山芋遊戲的僵局，或者沒有人願意持有庫存？

Yes. I don't think it's -- I really think it's just -- we all overbuild inventory. Direct vendors and distributors through the COVID period, I mean we all talked about it. And I go back to my example on the medical packaging side. The customers were just yelling for us to get more to them. And usually, when that happens, you see an overshoot happen, and some of them probably even double order.

是的。我不認為這是——我真的認為這只是——我們都過度建立了庫存。疫情期間的直接供應商和分銷商，我的意思是我們都討論過這個問題。我回到醫療包裝方面的例子。顧客只是大喊大叫，要求我們為他們提供更多服務。通常，當這種情況發生時，您會看到發生超調，其中一些甚至可能是雙階。

I've been through that before in my career, and then you get the snap back. So I think that's what we're going through is that they're adjusting their inventory back to appropriate levels. They don't have to worry about carrying excess inventory because supply chains are normalized again. And again, we're doing the same thing. We're feeling confident about being able to get supply of all our different components. And so we're working our inventory levels down from what were elevated levels because of the COVID stuff. So I don't think that you'll have to worry about different terms or anything with our distributors.

我在職業生涯中曾經經歷過這種情況，然後你就會恢復過來。所以我認為我們正在經歷的是他們正在將庫存調整回適當的水平。他們不必擔心庫存過剩，因為供應鏈再次正常化。再說一遍，我們正在做同樣的事情。我們對能夠獲得所有不同組件的供應充滿信心。因此，我們正在努力降低因新冠肺炎疫情而升高的庫存水準。因此，我認為您不必擔心與我們的經銷商的不同條款或任何問題。

Okay. Good to hear. Lori, can I just ask you what's updated thoughts on minimum cash levels that you want to keep just as we think about next year and your free cash flow generation versus what you might do from a share repurchase perspective?

好的。很高興聽到。洛里（Lori），我可以問你對你想要保留的最低現金水平的最新想法是什麼，就像我們考慮明年一樣，你的自由現金流生成與你從股票回購的角度可能做的事情相比？

Yes. So we'll still target about $1.5 billion of minimum cash levels. As we had mentioned on the call, we'll look to return a significant portion of our cash flow to shareholders next year through share repurchases. So will be done with the existing ASR at some point later in the first quarter, and then that will give us the ability to get back into the market underneath the new program. As I had mentioned, we have the Delrin proceeds coming in at some point today. So we'll have that cash come in the door. And then when we're in an open window, again, we'll be able to do more share repurchase.

是的。因此，我們仍將目標定為約 15 億美元的最低現金水準。正如我們在電話會議上提到的，我們將尋求明年透過股票回購將大部分現金流返還給股東。因此，現有的 ASR 將在第一季稍後的某個時候完成，然後這將使我們能夠根據新計劃重新進入市場。正如我所提到的，我們今天某個時候收到了 Delrin 收益。這樣我們就能拿到現金了。然後，當我們再次處於開放窗口時，我們將能夠進行更多股票回購。

Your next question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research.

您的下一個問題來自費米研究中心的 Frank Mitsch。

I wanted to follow up on Spectrum. You indicated that financially, it was performing in line with your projections. So I was just curious, I think you indicated that you expected like something like $45 million of EBITDA for the balance of $23 million since you closed on August 1. And also I think you guys indicated you get about $20 million of synergies. So are those numbers still accurate? What's your take on Spectrum so far?

我想跟進 Spectrum。您表示，從財務角度來看，它的表現符合您的預測。所以我只是很好奇，我認為你們表示，自8 月1 日關閉以來，你們預計EBITDA 約為4500 萬美元，而餘額為2300 萬美元。而且我認為你們表示，你們將獲得約2000 萬美元的協同效應。那麼這些數字仍然準確嗎？到目前為止，您對 Spectrum 有何看法？

Yes. So Spectrum performing according to plan. They've got nice growth on a year-over-year basis, especially within the medical device side. The majority of the business is medical device, there is a piece that goes into industrial. And it's really based on some nice key wins that they've had with some of the large medical device producers. So we're pleased with the performance that we've seen as the numbers that you had cited earlier are still on track. And then the synergy delivery is $60 million in total, it's over a couple of year timeframe for us to realize the synergies, but that continues to remain on track as well. Obviously, the initial synergy delivery will come from some overhead consolidation that we get after the procurement-related synergies and maybe some of the site-related synergies over time.

是的。所以 Spectrum 正在按計劃進行。他們比去年同期成長良好，尤其是在醫療設備方面。大部分業務是醫療器械，還有一部分涉及工業。這實際上是基於他們與一些大型醫療設備生產商取得的一些重大勝利。因此，我們對我們所看到的表現感到滿意，因為您之前引用的數字仍然在正軌上。協同效應交付總額為 6000 萬美元，我們需要幾年的時間才能實現協同效應，但這也將繼續保持在正軌上。顯然，最初的協同效應交付將來自我們在採購相關協同效應以及隨著時間的推移可能產生一些與場地相關的協同效應之後獲得的一些管理費用整合。

Very helpful. And if I could follow up on semiconductor technologies. You indicated that AI growth is going to help this business in the future. Can you give us an idea of the size that you anticipate AI to grow to over 2024, 2025 in terms of your semiconductor business?

很有幫助。如果我可以跟進半導體技術。您表示人工智慧的成長將在未來幫助該業務。您能否告訴我們您預計 2024 年、2025 年人工智慧在半導體業務方面將成長到什麼規模？

Well, I will go, Frank, more high level. I think a lot of the growth we'll get will allow the semiconductor business -- again, once we get through the downturn here and all that, that this business can grow kind of mid- to high-single-digit, which, by the way, it was doing before all the destock hit. Again, if the market grows 5 to 6 to 7 points, we'll grow 200 to 300 basis points above that. And that 200 to 300 basis points is mostly because of that high-end ship, because of AI enablement and all that and that plays to our sweet spot. So that's how we get that outsized growth usually over the market and AI plays right into that...

好吧，我會去，弗蘭克，更高級別的。我認為我們將獲得的大量增長將允許半導體業務 - 再次，一旦我們度過了這裡的低迷期以及所有這些，該業務就可以實現中高個位數的增長，通過事實上，在所有去庫存事件發生之前，情況就是如此。同樣，如果市場成長 5 至 6 至 7 個點，我們將在此之上成長 200 至 300 個基點。 200 到 300 個基點主要是因為那艘高端船舶、人工智慧的支援以及所有這些都發揮了我們的最佳作用。這就是我們通常在市場上獲得巨大成長的方式，而人工智慧正好發揮了作用…

Maybe just to help to size it for you, too. So within our semi portfolio, we have about a $700 million business in data centers overall and about a little more than 1/3 of that is direct to AI. So that's the nice portion of growth that we continue to see above the overall MSI projections.

也許只是為了幫助您確定尺寸。因此，在我們的半投資組合中，我們的資料中心業務總體約為 7 億美元，其中約 1/3 多一點直接涉及人工智慧。因此，這是我們在整體 MSI 預測之上繼續看到的成長的好部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne of Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的史蒂夫·伯恩。

[Rob Hoffman] on for Steve Byrne. Just going back to the Spectrum business. Now that you've had the business for a couple of months, do you see any opportunities for cross-selling to these medical device companies?

[羅布·霍夫曼] 代替史蒂夫·伯恩。回到頻譜業務。現在您已經開展業務幾個月了，您是否看到了向這些醫療器材公司進行交叉銷售的機會？

Yes. That was one of the large theses for the revenue synergy upside was that they are very strong and have great relationships on the medical device side, and we're very strong and have great relationships on the biopharma side, and how can we bring those 2 pieces together to generate revenue synergies? So it's been a couple of months and that theses as we've initially seen it continues to play out, and we'll -- and we don't have the revenue synergies on the hand right now, but we see nice opportunities as we continue to integrate these 2 businesses together.

是的。這是收入協同效應上升的一大論點是，他們非常強大，在醫療設備方面擁有良好的關係，而我們非常強大，在生物製藥方面擁有良好的關係，我們如何將這兩個整合在一起產生所得協同效應？所以已經過去了幾個月了，正如我們最初看到的那樣，這些問題繼續發揮作用，我們現在手頭沒有收入協同效應，但我們看到了很好的機會，因為我們繼續將這兩項業務整合在一起。

I see. That's great. And then which of your businesses do you see the most potential for share gains and new product introduction versus volumes that are driven primarily by cyclical recoveries?

我懂了。那太棒了。那麼，與主要由週期性復甦推動的銷售相比，您認為您的哪些業務最有潛力獲得份額成長和新產品推出？

Yes. I mean I think we see -- if we take it by segment within E&I, we've mentioned that, we should see 200 to 300 basis points of outsized market growth within semi, and that's a combination of share gain and just where our exposure is in advanced nodes in the areas that are growing faster than others. We also see a step-change opportunity within the general consumer electronics space. We have seen some nice share gain on the metallization side. It will continue to show in the top line as the PCB providers start to ramp up their utilization rates to more normal levels, but we have seen -- we have seen our performance versus some of the peers in the metallization space, be better. And then within the W&P portfolio, we continue to expect nice growth within water. Obviously, we're in a destock right now, but we'll see nice growth more from a secular basis. So just that water industry is generally growing in mid-single digits, which is a nice market for us.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們看到- 如果我們按E&I 內部的細分市場來劃分，我們已經提到過，我們應該會看到半成品市場出現200 到300 個基點的超大規模增長，這是份額收益和我們的風險敞口的結合。處於比其他領域增長更快的先進節點。我們也看到了一般消費電子領域的巨大變革機會。我們在金屬化方面看到了一些不錯的份額增長。隨著 PCB 供應商開始將利用率提高到更正常的水平，這一點將繼續體現在營收中，但我們已經看到，與金屬化領域的一些同行相比，我們的表現更好。然後，在 W&P 投資組合中，我們繼續預期水務領域將出現良好成長。顯然，我們現在正在去庫存，但從長期來看，我們會看到更多的良好成長。因此，水產業總體上以中個位數成長，這對我們來說是一個很好的市場。

And on the safety side, it's really going to be we've added capacity now, and we have to -- we'll get step-change growth from utilizing that capacity. So we're nearing the completion of an additional line for Tyvek. We've constrained in the Tyvek market for years. And so we'll see some nice lift there as we fill up that asset, and we've recently expanded some capacity within the new technology in the Kevlar space. So it's a new opportunity for us to bring a lighter weight Kevlar to the market, and we look for good things from that business as well. I mean, and shelter generally should be more along the GDP-type grower.

在安全方面，我們現在確實增加了產能，而且我們必須——我們將透過利用這些產能來實現逐步成長。因此，我們即將完成 Tyvek 的附加生產線。多年來我們一直限制在 Tyvek 市場。因此，當我們填充該資產時，我們會看到一些不錯的提升，並且我們最近在 Kevlar 空間的新技術中擴大了一些容量。因此，這對我們來說是一個將重量更輕的凱夫拉縴維推向市場的新機會，我們也在該業務中尋找好的東西。我的意思是，住房通常應該更適合 GDP 類型的種植者。

And our final question today comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets.

今天我們的最後一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

Just wanted to take a quick try it at maybe kind of mid-cycle or longer-term earnings growth. If you think about volumes kind of maybe double digits below normal in electronics and then some leverage on a recovery there, you're exiting the year at around $3 billion of annualized EBITDA. Would that imply something in the 3.3 to 3.6 kind of range as far as when you take a look at longer term or mid-cycle where you want to get to?

只是想快速嘗試中期或長期獲利成長。如果你考慮到電子產品的銷售量可能比正常水平低兩位數，然後考慮到該領域復甦的一些槓桿作用，那麼你今年結束時的年化 EBITDA 約為 30 億美元。當你考慮長期或中期週期你想要達到的目標時，這是否意味著 3.3 到 3.6 範圍內的某些東西？

Yes. I mean longer term, you should get back into the -- if we were running the E&I portfolio, I think, is where your focus was in the more of the 32% margin range, and we should see the volume kind of return there over time as the utilization rate at the large PCB guys and the semi guys return.

是的。我的意思是，從長遠來看，你應該回到——如果我們運行 E&I 投資組合，我認為，你的重點是 32% 的利潤範圍，我們應該看到那裡的交易量回報大型PCB 製造商和半製造商的利用率恢復的時間。

But if we look more near term as far as headwinds, tailwinds as we head into 2024, there's definitely tailwinds from volume growth from the electronics recovery and normalization of the destock. And there's obviously incremental tailwinds from the deflation we had mentioned as we go forward, and then the benefit of the restructuring actions that we are now taking and we'll start to see the benefit of it at some point later in the first quarter.

但如果我們更長遠看待進入 2024 年的逆風和順風，電子產品復甦和去庫存正常化帶來的銷售成長肯定會帶來順風。隨著我們前進，我們提到的通貨緊縮顯然會帶來增量順風，然後是我們現在正在採取的重組行動的好處，我們將在第一季晚些時候的某個時候開始看到它的好處。

And then just from an EPS perspective, we do continue to lower our share count. So we'll see lower fourth quarter share count versus the full year, which will carry us into 2024. And then we'll have the incremental benefit of the $2 billion program that we'll complete in the first and then advance new share takeout as well. So we see a nice EPS benefit that we've seen as we took shares out throughout 2023.

然後，僅從每股盈餘的角度來看，我們確實繼續減少我們的股票數量。因此，我們將看到第四季度的股票數量低於全年，這將帶我們進入2024 年。然後我們將獲得20 億美元計劃的增量收益，我們將在第一時間完成該計劃，然後推進新股收購以及。因此，我們在 2023 年出售股票時看到了不錯的每股盈餘。

The headwinds, though, are, I think we will continue to see the industrial destock impact the water and safety businesses primarily in the first quarter. So that will be a headwind to the first quarter. We will see most likely some price modernization or get back primarily in the shelter business as I had mentioned. So we'll try and maintain that as long as we can, but we will be cognizant of potential share loss and potentially has to be giving some back there. And then just we have taken some aggressive actions on the compensation side in 2023. So we are paying a below-target variable compensation payout this year, and so we would most likely see normalization of that as we head into 2024.

不過，我認為我們將繼續看到工業去庫存主要在第一季對水和安全業務產生影響。因此，這將是第一季的不利因素。正如我所提到的，我們很可能會看到一些價格現代化，或者主要回到庇護所業務。因此，我們將盡力維持這一現狀，但我們將意識到潛在的份額損失，並且可能必須回饋一些。然後，我們在2023 年的薪酬方面採取了一些積極的行動。因此，我們今年支付的可變薪酬支出低於目標，因此，當我們進入2024 年時，我們很可能會看到這一情況的正常化。

And so those are the big puts and takes with the one extra exception from a below-the-line perspective around interest income. So we did see about $145 million of interest income this year just as we held the proceeds from the Celanese transaction in the first half before we could deploy them to Spectrum and then the full share repurchase program. So we would see a step down in 2024 from interest income from about $145 million this year to probably $20 million next year.

因此，這些都是大額看跌期權和看跌期權，但從利息收入的線下角度來看，還有一個額外的例外。因此，今年我們確實看到了大約 1.45 億美元的利息收入，就像我們上半年持有塞拉尼斯交易的收益一樣，然後我們可以將它們部署到 Spectrum，然後部署到全額股票回購計劃。因此，我們預計 2024 年利息收入將從今年的約 1.45 億美元下降到明年的 2,000 萬美元。

I would like to hand the call back over to Chris Mecray for closing comments.

我想將電話轉回克里斯麥克雷 (Chris Mecray) 以供結束評論。

Okay. Thank you all for joining our call this morning. And for your reference, a copy of our transcript will be posted on our website. This concludes our call. Thank you.

好的。感謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。為了供您參考，我們的成績單副本將發佈在我們的網站上。我們的通話到此結束。謝謝。

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect.

我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。你們現在可以斷開連結了。