杜邦 (DD) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

捷普公司已宣布將回購 50 億美元的股票,並有可能在全年進行額外回購。該公司還在考慮在第一個完成後立即進行另一個回購計劃。捷普公司對工業技術很感興趣,最近在這個領域進行了收購。該公司在半導體市場上看到了不同的情況,並被限制供應這個市場。

杜邦預計 2019 年第四季度價格將上漲 5%,低於前兩個季度 8% 和 7% 的漲幅。然而,由於季節性因素,該公司預計 EBITDA 利潤率將整體改善。季節性是指第四季度有很多激勵補償,這會提高利潤率。未來,杜邦計劃利用其在電動汽車市場的曝光率來發展其粘合劑業務。此外,該公司預計粘合劑的有機增長為 25%。

該公司預計 2022 年全年因外匯而導致的銷售逆風。淨銷售額的中點現在為 130 億美元,比之前的中點減少了 1.5 億美元。由於外匯,該公司預計淨銷售額將增加 4%。即便如此,該公司仍預計有機淨銷售額將實現高個位數增長。該公司還在調整其全年的運營 EBITDA 指引,預計約為 32.5 億美元。公司全年調整後每股收益預計約為每股 3.30 美元。全年高於預期的基本稅率預計將被較低的股票數量和較高的現金餘額以及公司在第四季度採取的資本部署行動所帶來的淨利息收益所抵消。 Dover Corporation 是一家上市公司,專注於向股東返還資本,同時保持強勁的資產負債表。公司首席執行官 Ed Heffernan 討論了公司的資本配置方法,其中包括股票回購授權和去槓桿計劃。他還討論了公司對規範定價和運營執行的關注如何導致其大多數終端市場的強勁需求。然而,該公司預計第四季度某些市場將出現疲軟,貨幣逆風預計將繼續對公司業績產生負面影響。

杜邦首席執行官 Ed Breen 被問及公司在解決訴訟方面的進展以及汽車膠粘劑業務的增長情況。他說,他們在解決訴訟方面取得了“巨大進展”,但他不想為此設定時間表。他說,重點是解決水區案件。他還提到,汽車膠粘劑業務表現良好,預計未來將增長。

杜邦公司專注於通過開發新技術來降低水處理行業的能源消耗。這將幫助他們的客戶降低能源成本或升級到更新、更高效的系統。該公司專注於內部研發發現以創造新產品,並且還專注於利用 Laird 平台和現有的杜邦技術。

Dover Corporation 是一家上市公司,專注於向股東返還資本,同時保持強勁的資產負債表。公司首席執行官 Ed Heffernan 討論了公司的資本配置方法,其中包括股票回購授權和去槓桿計劃。

Dover 的資本配置方法有兩個:股票回購和去槓桿計劃。 Heffernan 討論了公司對規範定價和運營執行的關注如何導致其大多數終端市場的強勁需求。然而,該公司預計第四季度某些市場將出現疲軟,貨幣逆風預計將繼續對公司業績產生負面影響。

杜邦首席執行官 Ed Breen 被問及公司在解決訴訟方面的進展以及汽車膠粘劑業務的增長情況。他說,他們在解決訴訟方面取得了“巨大進展”,但他不想為此設定時間表。重點是解決水區案件。他還提到,汽車膠粘劑業務表現良好,預計未來將增長。

杜邦公司專注於通過開發新技術來降低水處理行業的能源消耗。這將幫助他們的客戶降低能源成本或升級到更新、更高效的系統。該公司專注於內部研發發現以創造新產品,並且還專注於利用 Laird 平台和現有的杜邦技術。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to DuPont's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Please note, today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

    美好的一天,歡迎來到杜邦 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。 (操作員說明)謝謝。

  • Chris Mecray, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

    投資者關係副總裁 Chris Mecray,你可以開始你的會議了。

  • Christopher H. Mecray - VP of IR

    Christopher H. Mecray - VP of IR

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us for DuPont's Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me today are Ed Breen, Chief Executive Officer; and Lori Koch, Chief Financial Officer. We have prepared slides to supplement our remarks which are posted on DuPont's website under the Investor Relations tab through the webcast link. Please read the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the slides.

    早上好,感謝您加入我們參加杜邦 2022 年第三季度財務業績電話會議。今天加入我的是首席執行官 Ed Breen;和首席財務官 Lori Koch。我們準備了幻燈片來補充我們的評論,這些評論通過網絡廣播鏈接發佈在杜邦網站的“投資者關係”選項卡下。請閱讀幻燈片中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。

  • During this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations or predictions about the future. Because these statements are based on current assumptions and factors that involve risks and uncertainties, our actual performance or results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Our 2021 Form 10-K, as updated by our current and periodic reports, includes detailed discussion of principal risks and uncertainties which may cause such differences.

    在此次電話會議中,我們將就我們對未來的期望或預測做出前瞻性陳述。由於這些陳述基於當前的假設和因素,涉及風險和不確定性,我們的實際業績或結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。我們的 2021 年 10-K 表格由我們的當前和定期報告更新,包括對可能導致此類差異的主要風險和不確定性的詳細討論。

  • Unless otherwise specified, all historical financial measures presented today exclude significant items. We will also refer to other non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is included in our press release and also posted to DuPont's Investor Relations website.

    除非另有說明,否則今天提出的所有歷史財務指標均不包括重要項目。我們還將參考其他非 GAAP 措施。我們的新聞稿中包含與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬,並發佈在杜邦的投資者關係網站上。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Ed.

    我現在將電話轉給埃德。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining our third quarter financial review. We posted strong quarterly results, above our previously communicated guidance, in an extremely challenging environment due to uneven macro conditions and persistent inflation globally.

    早上好,感謝您加入我們的第三季度財務審查。由於宏觀環境不平衡和全球持續通貨膨脹,我們在極具挑戰性的環境中公佈了強勁的季度業績,高於我們之前傳達的指導意見。

  • Our revenue growth of 4% versus the year ago period included solid organic growth of 11%. Customer demand remains strong across most of our key end markets, during the period, highlighted by double-digit volume increases in select areas, including Kalrez, Vespel, Laird, Semi, Water and Auto Adhesives.

    與去年同期相比,我們的收入增長了 4%,其中包括 11% 的穩健有機增長。在此期間,我們大多數主要終端市場的客戶需求依然強勁,突出表現在選定領域的兩位數銷量增長,包括 Kalrez、Vespel、Laird、Semi、Water 和汽車膠粘劑。

  • To combat persistent inflationary headwinds in raw materials, logistics and energy, we continue to implement necessary pricing actions, which have fully offset such headwinds to date.

    為了應對原材料、物流和能源領域持續的通脹逆風,我們繼續實施必要的定價行動,迄今為止已完全抵消了這些逆風。

  • Given continued energy cost inflation, we now expect full year 2022 inflation of about $800 million year-over-year, which we anticipate will be fully offset by pricing actions.

    鑑於能源成本持續上漲,我們現在預計 2022 年全年通脹將同比增長約 8 億美元,我們預計這將被定價行動完全抵消。

  • Our third quarter results also demonstrated year-over-year operating EBITDA growth and margin improvement, reflecting DuPont's unique business mix, innovative solutions and highly diverse end markets as well as strong operational execution during the period. We are pleased to have reported strong performance during each of the first 3 quarters of 2022, and we remain firmly committed to continued strong execution in the coming periods.

    我們第三季度的業績還顯示了運營 EBITDA 的同比增長和利潤率的提高,反映了杜邦在此期間獨特的業務組合、創新的解決方案和高度多樣化的終端市場以及強大的運營執行力。我們很高興在 2022 年前三個季度的每個季度都取得了強勁的業績,我們仍然堅定地致力於在未來幾個時期繼續保持強勁的執行力。

  • Turning to Slide 4, I will comment on the details of our transformation progress. First, last week's announcement that we completed the sale of the majority of our M&M segment to Celanese marks the completion of our last contemplated large-scale divestiture for which we received $11 billion in gross cash. The M&M business is an excellent set of assets that we know will prosper, and we are confident that Celanese is the right owner going forward.

    轉到幻燈片 4,我將評論我們轉型進展的細節。首先,上週我們宣布完成將大部分 M&M 業務出售給 Celanese,這標誌著我們完成了最後一次計劃中的大規模資產剝離,為此我們收到了 110 億美元的總現金。 M&M 業務是一組優秀的資產,我們知道它們會蓬勃發展,我們相信塞拉尼斯是未來的正確所有者。

  • We are excited by the prospect of proving to the market that our multiyear transformation has brought DuPont to a truly different place. After the Dow merger, followed by the spins that created the new DuPont, we have further transformed our business with large-scale deals, including the N&B split-off and now the M&M transaction. We further sold 8 smaller businesses over the last 3 years, with proceeds totaling over $2 billion.

    我們很高興能夠向市場證明,我們多年的轉型已經將杜邦帶到了一個真正不同的地方。在陶氏合併之後,以及創建新杜邦的分拆之後,我們通過大規模交易進一步轉變了我們的業務,包括 N&B 拆分和現在的 M&M 交易。在過去 3 年中,我們進一步出售了 8 家較小的企業,收益總額超過 20 億美元。

  • We are starting the next phase of our growth from a position of strength, leveraging highly profitable businesses with strong and leading market position centered in growing markets as well as a healthy balance sheet. These assets include some of the best intellectual property in their respective industry verticals with globally recognized brands familiar to us all as well as the thousands of long-time B2B industrial customers.

    我們正從強勢地位開始下一階段的增長,利用以增長市場為中心的具有強大和領先市場地位的高利潤業務以及健康的資產負債表。這些資產包括各自垂直行業中的一些最佳知識產權,以及我們所有人都熟悉的全球知名品牌以及數以千計的長期 B2B 行業客戶。

  • For DuPont, we are confident that our remaining mix of businesses offers a different dynamic with significantly lower volatility and higher expected long-term growth given our revenue mix. This is driven by a focus on secular tailwinds, including the 5G build-out and other electronics drivers, the global clean water infrastructure development, continued demand for safety and personal protection solutions, secular growth across multiple industrial technology verticals that we serve and from next-generation automotive growth. We believe we have built a portfolio that can perform alongside the best diversified industrial companies. Our businesses are aligned with secular growth trends, we deliver top-tier levels of profitability and we should clearly benefit from dampened business volatility compared to our portfolio from just a few years ago. These advantages are clear and will help us to generate superior shareholder value over time.

    對於杜邦,我們相信我們剩餘的業務組合提供了一種不同的動態,考慮到我們的收入組合,波動性顯著降低,預期長期增長更高。這是由對長期順風的關注推動的,包括 5G 建設和其他電子驅動因素、全球清潔水基礎設施的發展、對安全和個人保護解決方案的持續需求、我們服務的多個工業技術垂直領域的長期增長以及從未來開始-一代汽車增長。我們相信,我們已經建立了一個可以與最優秀的多元化工業公司並駕齊驅的投資組合。我們的業務與長期增長趨勢保持一致,我們提供一流的盈利水平,與幾年前的投資組合相比,我們應該明顯受益於業務波動性減弱。這些優勢是顯而易見的,並將幫助我們隨著時間的推移產生卓越的股東價值。

  • Regarding the Delrin divestiture process, we continue to advance our internal work required to divest that business. We are being diligent with our overall marketing process to ensure we maximize value in proper market conditions and expect to have completed a sale in 2023.

    關於 Delrin 剝離流程,我們將繼續推進剝離該業務所需的內部工作。我們正在努力處理我們的整體營銷流程,以確保我們在適當的市場條件下實現價值最大化,並預計在 2023 年完成銷售。

  • Before I move on, I'd like to briefly address the intended Rogers acquisition. We terminated this deal on November 1, which was the outside date of the transaction agreement originally signed a year ago. This was an unfortunate outcome in that the potential strategic fit of Rogers with our business was strong and we saw a lot of opportunity, but we're unable to secure regulatory approval for the transaction. We wish the Rogers team well.

    在我繼續之前,我想簡要地談談計劃中的羅傑斯收購。我們於 11 月 1 日終止了這筆交易,這是一年前最初簽署的交易協議的外部日期。這是一個不幸的結果,因為 Rogers 與我們業務的潛在戰略契合度很強,我們看到了很多機會,但我們無法獲得監管部門對交易的批准。我們希望羅傑斯團隊一切順利。

  • For DuPont, the inability to close the acquisition has no material impact on our ongoing business outside of the obvious loss of opportunity. We remain confident in the quality of our portfolio and its growth potential, and we'll look to be opportunistic with select and targeted M&A moving forward.

    對於杜邦而言,除了明顯失去機會外,無法完成收購對我們正在進行的業務沒有實質性影響。我們仍然對我們投資組合的質量及其增長潛力充滿信心,我們將期待通過有選擇和有針對性的併購向前發展。

  • Shifting to capital allocation on Slide 5. With the receipt of the proceeds from the M&M sale, we are now able to accelerate our capital return options and further strengthen our balance sheet, while maintaining flexibility to continue to grow the business through disciplined and targeted M&A.

    轉到幻燈片 5 上的資本配置。在收到 M&M 出售的收益後,我們現在能夠加快我們的資本回報選擇並進一步加強我們的資產負債表,同時保持靈活性以通過有紀律和有針對性的併購繼續發展業務.

  • Today, we announced that our Board has authorized a new $5 billion share repurchase program which expires June 30, 2024. We intend to act immediately and enter an accelerated share repurchase agreement for $3.25 billion of common stock which includes the remaining $250 million under the previous authorization. We anticipate completing this ASR within about 9 months, with 80% of the shares retired upfront during the fourth quarter. We currently expect to complete the full $5 billion of repurchases within the authorization period.

    今天,我們宣布我們的董事會已批准一項新的 50 億美元股票回購計劃,該計劃將於 2024 年 6 月 30 日到期。我們打算立即採取行動並就 32.5 億美元的普通股簽訂加速股份回購協議,其中包括之前的剩餘 2.5 億美元授權。我們預計將在大約 9 個月內完成此 ASR,其中 80% 的股份將在第四季度提前退役。我們目前預計在授權期限內完成全部50億美元的回購。

  • In addition, we will retire $2.5 billion of our senior notes due 2023 in the fourth quarter. The prepayment reduces refinancing risk in a rising rate environment, while generating pretax annualized savings of over $100 million. Further, we plan to reduce our commercial paper balance to 0 by year-end, of which we had $1.3 billion outstanding at the end of the third quarter.

    此外,我們將在第四季度收回 25 億美元的 2023 年到期的優先票據。預付款降低了利率上升環境中的再融資風險,同時產生了超過 1 億美元的稅前年度節省。此外,我們計劃在年底前將我們的商業票據余額減少到 0,其中在第三季度末我們有 13 億美元未償還。

  • In combination, the significant share repurchase authorization and our deleveraging plan demonstrates our continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet. Our approach remains balanced and in line with our overall capital allocation strategy. We expect to finish the year with a leverage ratio significantly below our longer-term target, maintaining balance sheet capacity to further allocate excess capital through a combination of bolt-on M&A and potential share repurchases over time. Our M&A focus remains on targets that fit within our growth pillars and are aligned with key secular growth trends.

    重要的股票回購授權和我們的去槓桿化計劃相結合,表明我們繼續致力於向股東返還資本,同時保持穩健的資產負債表。我們的方法保持平衡,並符合我們的整體資本配置策略。我們預計年底時的槓桿率將大大低於我們的長期目標,從而維持資產負債表的能力,通過結合併購和潛在的股票回購進一步分配過剩資本。我們的併購重點仍然放在符合我們增長支柱的目標上,並與主要的長期增長趨勢保持一致。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Lori to discuss third quarter details as well as our financial outlook.

    有了這個,讓我把它交給 Lori 來討論第三季度的細節以及我們的財務前景。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Ed, and good morning. As mentioned, we saw continued strong demand during the quarter in most of our end markets, with organic growth better than our expectations coming into the quarter. The global economy remains challenged in some respects, but our team's focus on disciplined pricing and operational execution contributed to operating EBITDA margin expansion on a year-over-year basis.

    謝謝,埃德,早上好。如前所述,我們看到本季度大多數終端市場的需求持續強勁,有機增長好於我們進入本季度的預期。全球經濟在某些方面仍然面臨挑戰,但我們的團隊專注於規範的定價和運營執行,這有助於運營 EBITDA 利潤率同比增長。

  • Turning to our financial highlights for the quarter on Slide 6. Net sales of $3.3 billion increased 4% as reported and increased 11% on an organic basis versus the prior year quarter. Global currencies remained highly dynamic as we saw a 4% headwind resulting from U.S. dollar strength against key currencies, including the euro, yen and yuan. The 3% portfolio headwind reflects the impact of noncore divestitures.

    轉向幻燈片 6 本季度的財務亮點。報告的淨銷售額為 33 億美元,同比增長 4%,有機增長 11%。全球貨幣保持高度動態,因為我們看到美元兌歐元、日元和人民幣等主要貨幣走強導致 4% 的逆風。 3% 的投資組合逆風反映了非核心資產剝離的影響。

  • Breaking down organic sales growth, we saw 8% pricing gains and 3% higher volume. Volume growth reflects continued strong demand, most notably in semiconductor, water and general industrial, reduced somewhat by lower volumes for protective garments within Safety Solutions and ongoing softness in smartphone and personal computing markets globally within Interconnect Solutions.

    打破有機銷售增長,我們看到 8% 的定價收益和 3% 的銷量增長。銷量增長反映了持續強勁的需求,尤其是在半導體、水和一般工業領域,但由於安全解決方案中防護服的銷量下降以及互連解決方案中全球智能手機和個人計算市場的持續疲軟而有所減少。

  • On a segment basis, third quarter organic growth was 15% for W&T, 7% for E&I, and I'll highlight 25% organic growth for the retained businesses that we report in Corporate (inaudible) representing the adhesive portfolio from the former M&M segment.

    按細分市場劃分,W&T 第三季度有機增長為 15%,E&I 為 7%,我將強調我們在公司(聽不清)中報告的保留業務的 25% 有機增長,代表前 M&M 細分市場的粘合劑組合.

  • On a regional basis, we delivered organic sales growth in all 4 regions, led by volume increases in North America and Asia Pacific.

    在地區基礎上,我們在所有 4 個地區實現了有機銷售增長,其中北美和亞太地區的銷量增長居首。

  • From an earnings perspective, operating EBITDA of $856 million increased 5% versus the year ago period and adjusted EPS of $0.82 per share increased 4%. These increases were driven primarily by volume gains as pricing actions were offset by higher inflationary cost pressure. Adjusted EPS in the quarter included a higher-than-expected tax rate, which I'll detail shortly.

    從收益的角度來看,運營 EBITDA 為 8.56 億美元,同比增長 5%,調整後每股收益為 0.82 美元,增長 4%。這些增長主要是由銷量增長推動的,因為定價行為被更高的通脹成本壓力所抵消。本季度調整後的每股收益包括高於預期的稅率,我將在稍後詳細說明。

  • Operating EBITDA margin of 25.8% increased 30 basis points year-over-year on stronger volumes and productivity. Operating EBITDA margin in the quarter, adjusted to exclude price cost, was over 27%. Finally, incremental margin was 33% on a as-reported basis.

    由於銷量和生產率的提高,營業 EBITDA 利潤率為 25.8%,同比增長 30 個基點。本季度經調整以排除價格成本的營業 EBITDA 利潤率超過 27%。最後,在報告的基礎上,增量利潤率為 33%。

  • Cash flow from operations during the quarter of $419 million, adjusted for capital expenditures of $172 million and the $115 million tax prepayment related to the M&M divestiture resulted in free cash flow of $362 million. We continue to experience significant headwinds from transaction costs related to the M&M separation as well as working capital headwinds primarily from the divested M&M business.

    本季度運營產生的現金流為 4.19 億美元,根據 1.72 億美元的資本支出和與 M&M 資產剝離相關的 1.15 億美元預繳稅款進行調整後,自由現金流為 3.62 億美元。我們繼續面臨與 M&M 分離相關的交易成本以及主要來自剝離的 M&M 業務的營運資金逆風的重大阻力。

  • Free cash flow conversion in the quarter for the total company was 73%. For the ongoing portfolio, if M&M was excluded, free cash conversion in the quarter would have been in line with our target of greater than 90%.

    整個公司本季度的自由現金流轉換率為 73%。對於正在進行的投資組合,如果排除 M&M,本季度的自由現金轉換將符合我們超過 90% 的目標。

  • Turning to Slide 7. Adjusted EPS of $0.82 increased 4% compared to $0.79 in the year ago period. Stronger segment results versus the prior year contributed 8% to adjusted EPS growth or $0.06 driven primarily by volume growth. Benefits from ongoing share repurchases continue to drive earnings growth, providing a $0.04 benefit to adjusted EPS.

    轉到幻燈片 7。與去年同期的 0.79 美元相比,調整後每股收益為 0.82 美元,增長 4%。與上一年相比,更強的部門業績為調整後的每股收益增長貢獻了 8% 或 0.06 美元,這主要是由銷量增長推動的。持續的股票回購帶來的好處繼續推動收益增長,為調整後的每股收益帶來 0.04 美元的收益。

  • The absence of earnings related to noncore business divestitures and the impact of currency headwinds negatively impacted third quarter results, and we expect both to be more significant headwinds to year-over-year earnings in the fourth quarter.

    與非核心業務資產剝離相關的收益缺失以及貨幣逆風的影響對第三季度業績產生了負面影響,我們預計這兩者都將對第四季度的同比收益產生更大的不利影響。

  • Our tax rate for the quarter was 26.2%, up notably from 23.5% in the prior year, resulting in a year-over-year headwind to adjusted EPS of $0.03 and a $0.05 headwind in the quarter compared to the midpoint of our previous modeling guidance. Our full year base tax rate is now expected to be about 24%, with the increase driven by currency and mix and geographic earnings.

    我們本季度的稅率為 26.2%,顯著高於上一年的 23.5%,導致調整後每股收益同比逆風 0.03 美元,與我們之前建模指導的中點相比,本季度逆風 0.05 美元.我們的全年基本稅率現在預計約為 24%,增長受貨幣和組合以及地域收益的推動。

  • Turning to segment results, beginning with E&I on slide. E&I delivered third quarter net sales growth of 3% and organic growth of 7%, including a 4% increase in volume and a 3% increase in price, partially offset by a 4% currency headwind. Sales growth was led by Semiconductor Technologies, which increased mid-teens organically as strong demand continued led by the ongoing transition to more advanced new technologies and high semiconductor fab utilization along with growth in 5G communications and data centers.

    轉向細分結果,從幻燈片上的 E&I 開始。 E&I 實現了第三季度 3% 的淨銷售額增長和 7% 的有機增長,包括 4% 的銷量增長和 3% 的價格增長,部分被 4% 的貨幣逆風所抵消。 Semiconductor Technologies 引領銷售額增長,隨著 5G 通信和數據中心的增長,隨著向更先進的新技術的持續過渡和半導體工廠的高利用率,需求持續強勁,Semiconductor Technologies 實現了有機增長。

  • Industrial Solutions posted another strong quarter with organic sales growth of high single digits led by ongoing strength from Kalrez semiconductor-related product offerings, Vespel products serving recovering aerospace markets, OLED materials for new electronic displays related model launches and for health care applications such as biopharma tubing. Interconnect Solutions sales decreased mid-single digits on an organic basis due to volume decline.

    工業解決方案發布了另一個強勁的季度,有機銷售額實現了高個位數的增長,這得益於 Kalrez 半導體相關產品供應的持續強勁、服務於正在復甦的航空航天市場的 Vespel 產品、用於新電子顯示器相關模型發布的 OLED 材料以及生物製藥等醫療保健應用管道。由於銷量下降,互連解決方案的銷售額有機地下降了中個位數。

  • Coming into the quarter, we expected a return to positive organic growth within Interconnect, but continued softness in consumer electronics specifically smartphones and lower PC and tablet demand globally, more than offset strong demand for Kapton film product applications in industrial end markets such as rail and defense and strength in Laird product offerings, including electromagnetic shielding and thermal management. Given this demand softening, we now expect Interconnect Solutions organic sales for the full year to be down mid-single digits.

    進入本季度,我們預計 Interconnect 將恢復正有機增長,但消費電子產品尤其是智能手機的持續疲軟以及全球 PC 和平板電腦需求的下降,足以抵消鐵路和工業終端市場對 Kapton 薄膜產品應用的強勁需求。萊爾德產品供應的防禦和實力,包括電磁屏蔽和熱管理。鑑於這種需求疲軟,我們現在預計互連解決方案全年的有機銷售額將下降中個位數。

  • Operating EBITDA for E&I of $473 million was relatively flat as volume gains in semi and Industrial Solutions were offset by lower volumes and weaker product mix in Interconnect Solutions, along with lower JV earnings.

    E&I 的運營 EBITDA 為 4.73 億美元,相對持平,因為半導體和工業解決方案的銷量增長被互連解決方案的銷量下降和產品組合疲軟以及合資企業收益下降所抵消。

  • Operating EBITDA margin of 31.3% was down 110 basis points from the prior year due primarily to the impact of price cost.

    營業 EBITDA 利潤率為 31.3%,較上年下降 110 個基點,主要原因是價格成本的影響。

  • Turning to Slide 9. W&P delivered net sales growth of 10% as organic sales growth of 15% was partially offset by a 5% currency headwind. Organic growth for W&P reflected a 13% increase in price and a 2% increase in volume. Organic sales growth was led by Shelter Solutions, which increased high teens driven by pricing actions and further aided by volume growth on continued demand in North America commercial construction.

    轉到幻燈片 9。由於 15% 的有機銷售額增長被 5% 的貨幣逆風部分抵消,W&P 實現了 10% 的淨銷售額增長。 W&P 的有機增長反映了 13% 的價格增長和 2% 的銷量增長。有機銷售增長由 Shelter Solutions 引領,它在定價行動的推動下增加了高青少年,並進一步受到北美商業建築持續需求的銷量增長的幫助。

  • Sales for Water Solutions were up an impressive mid-teens organic growth rate on strong global demand for reverse osmosis and on-exchange resin technologies as well as pricing gains.

    由於全球對反滲透和交換樹脂技術的強勁需求以及定價收益,水解決方案的銷售額實現了令人印象深刻的十幾歲中期有機增長率。

  • Sales for Safety Solutions were up low double digits on an organic basis as pricing actions were slightly offset by lower Tyvek volumes given the shift from garments to other Tyvek applications and the resulting impact of manufacturing line changeovers on production efficiency. Excluding the year-over-year Tyvek garment headwind, total W&P volumes would have been up approximately 5%.

    由於從服裝轉向其他 Tyvek 應用以及生產線轉換對生產效率產生的影響,Tyvek 銷量的下降略微抵消了 Safety Solutions 的銷售額有機地增長了兩位數。排除同比 Tyvek 服裝不利因素,W&P 總銷量將增長約 5%。

  • I will also acknowledge the dedicated work of our teams for safely and promptly restoring operations at our Spruance plant earlier in the third quarter from an unforeseen utility disruption with minimal impact on the quarter's results.

    我還要感謝我們的團隊在第三季度早些時候安全、及時地恢復我們斯普魯恩斯工廠的運營,以應對不可預見的公用事業中斷,並將對本季度業績的影響降至最低。

  • Operating EBITDA for W&P of $382 million increased 8% versus last year as pricing actions and volume gains more than offset higher product costs driven by inflationary pressure, weaker product mix and currency headwinds.

    W&P 的運營 EBITDA 為 3.82 億美元,比去年增長 8%,這是因為定價行動和銷量增長抵消了通脹壓力、產品組合疲軟和貨幣逆風導致的更高產品成本。

  • Operating EBITDA margin of 24.9% included a 170-basis point headwind related to price cost. Excluding this price/cost impact, operating EBITDA margin would have been 26.6% during the quarter.

    24.9% 的營業 EBITDA 利潤率包括與價格成本相關的 170 個基點的逆風。排除這一價格/成本影響,本季度的 EBITDA 營業利潤率為 26.6%。

  • I'll close with a few comments on our financial outlook and guidance for the full year 2022 on Slide 10. We expect solid demand trends to continue in the fourth quarter in many of our key end markets such as Water, Industrial and Auto Adhesives, to name a few. That said, we anticipate continued softness within Interconnect Solutions related to smartphones and personal computing globally and expect some slowing in customer fab production rates in our semi business. Additionally, we expect some impact from reducing our production to drive down inventories on a consolidated basis. Lastly, we expect further currency headwinds to negatively impact both top and bottom-line results.

    最後,我將在幻燈片 10 上對我們 2022 年全年的財務前景和指導發表一些評論。我們預計第四季度在我們的許多主要終端市場(例如水、工業和汽車粘合劑)中將繼續保持穩定的需求趨勢,僅舉幾例。也就是說,我們預計全球與智能手機和個人計算相關的互連解決方案將持續疲軟,並預計我們半導體業務的客戶晶圓廠生產率會有所放緩。此外,我們預計減產會產生一些影響,從而在綜合基礎上降低庫存。最後,我們預計進一步的貨幣逆風將對頂線和底線結果產生負面影響。

  • Based on these assumptions, we are adjusting the midpoint of our full year 2022 net sales guidance to the low end of our previous range and now expect net sales to be about $13 billion. Compared to our previous midpoint, this change reflects about $150 million of incremental foreign currency headwinds, with the majority of those headwinds impacting the fourth quarter.

    基於這些假設,我們將 2022 年全年淨銷售額指引的中點調整至之前範圍的低端,現在預計淨銷售額約為 130 億美元。與我們之前的中點相比,這一變化反映了約 1.5 億美元的增量外匯逆風,其中大部分逆風影響了第四季度。

  • For the full year, we now expect foreign currency to be approximately a 4% headwind to reported net sales. Our organic net sales growth expectation of high single digits for the full year remains unchanged.

    對於全年,我們現在預計外幣將對報告的淨銷售額產生約 4% 的不利影響。我們對全年高個位數的有機淨銷售額增長預期保持不變。

  • Due to the same factors just noted, we are adjusting the midpoint of our operating EBITDA guidance to the low end of our previous range and now expect full year 2022 operating EBITDA to be about $3.25 billion.

    由於剛才提到的相同因素,我們正在將我們的運營 EBITDA 指引的中點調整到我們之前範圍的低端,現在預計 2022 年全年運營 EBITDA 約為 32.5 億美元。

  • We now expect full year adjusted EPS to be about $3.30 per share, within our previous range. The higher-than-anticipated base tax rate for the full year that I discussed earlier, which equates to a $0.09 headwind versus our previous guide, is expected to be offset by a lower share count and net interest benefits resulting from a higher cash balance and the capital deployment actions we are taking in the fourth quarter.

    我們現在預計全年調整後每股收益約為 3.30 美元,在我們之前的範圍內。我之前討論過的高於預期的全年基本稅率,與我們之前的指南相比相當於 0.09 美元的逆風,預計將被較低的股票數量和現金餘額增加導致的淨利息收益所抵消,以及我們在第四季度採取的資本部署行動。

  • In closing, our team remains focused on operational execution and expect to use the levers within our control to meet our financial goals and continue to drive value for our shareholders.

    最後,我們的團隊仍然專注於運營執行,並期望利用我們控制範圍內的槓桿來實現我們的財務目標,並繼續為我們的股東創造價值。

  • With that, we are pleased to take your questions, and let me turn it back to the operator to open the Q&A.

    有了這個,我們很高興回答你的問題,讓我把它轉回給接線員打開問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

    (操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • Congrats on getting all that done. Just would love to put a finer point on how you're thinking about capital deployment beyond what you announced today. And specifically, as it relates to kind of M&A. Should we really think this will be bolt-ons and kind of neatly fitting with inside of how the portfolio is positioned? Certainly seems like you could benefit from just letting things settle down for a while and allowing people to digest kind of what you do and how the portfolio is taking shape.

    恭喜你完成了所有這些。除了今天宣布的內容之外,我只想更詳細地說明您如何考慮資本部署。具體來說,因為它涉及某種併購。我們真的應該認為這將是附加的,並且與投資組合的內部定位完全吻合嗎?當然,讓事情平靜下來並讓人們消化你所做的事情以及投資組合如何形成,你似乎可以從中受益。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes. Jeff, I think very good points you're making. We're in no rush to do an M&A deal. Eventually, especially in this environment. I don't think any of us know where things are actually headed. So we're going to take a pause here, see how the next set of months play out.

    是的。傑夫,我認為你提出的觀點非常好。我們並不急於進行併購交易。最終,尤其是在這種環境下。我不認為我們中的任何人都知道事情的實際發展方向。所以我們要在這裡暫停一下,看看接下來幾個月的結果如何。

  • We do have targets we've been interested in for quite a period of time, whether they're actionable or not is another kind of story. And they clearly would be in the pillars of the secular growth areas, the 5 areas that we've talked about. So we're not going to deviate off into anything else. But we're in the same mode, I think, as your opening comment, Jeff, let things settle down. We've made a lot of moves. We've pretty much finished our transformation except still for the sale of Delrin, which will happen in 2023.

    我們確實有很長一段時間以來一直感興趣的目標,無論它們是否可行都是另一回事。他們顯然將處於長期增長領域的支柱,即我們談到的 5 個領域。所以我們不會偏離任何其他事情。但我認為我們處於相同的模式,就像你的開場白一樣,傑夫,讓事情平靜下來。我們做了很多動作。除了將於 2023 年出售 Delrin 外,我們幾乎已經完成了轉型。

  • And so no rush to do anything. But we do have the capacity to do some bolt-on-type M&A, and that's the way we're thinking about it, is more on the bolt-on size of the deal.

    所以不要急於做任何事情。但我們確實有能力進行一些補強型併購,這就是我們考慮的方式,更多地取決於交易的補強規模。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • Great. And then maybe just a follow-up for Lori. Can you just kind of level set us on what you're expecting for the actual net proceeds for M&M, paid some tax here in Q3. And also you did note some free cash flow headwind from M&M. And I think you were talking about that all throughout the year. So are there actually some kind of favorable working capital adjustments here kind of on top of the gross kind of sales proceeds that we're talking about?

    偉大的。然後也許只是洛瑞的後續行動。你能否讓我們了解你對 M&M 實際淨收益的期望,在第三季度在這裡繳納了一些稅款。而且你也確實注意到了 M&M 的一些自由現金流逆風。我想你一整年都在談論這個。那麼,除了我們正在談論的銷售收入總額之外,這裡實際上是否有某種有利的營運資金調整?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So to your first question, I expect about $10.4 billion net after tax on all of the customary closing adjustments from the Milan transaction. So if you look to the end of the year with all the puts and takes, about -- we announced today on the capital allocation between the share repurchase authorization getting started with $3.25 billion and the fixed portion of the November 2023 is being paid down at $2.5 billion, that would put our year-end cash at roughly $4.8 billion, so a nice position to be in.

    是的。所以對於你的第一個問題,我預計米蘭交易的所有慣例結算調整的稅後淨額約為 104 億美元。因此,如果你看看今年年底的所有看跌期權,我們今天宣布了 32.5 億美元的股票回購授權與 2023 年 11 月的固定部分之間的資本分配。 25 億美元,這將使我們的年終現金約為 48 億美元,這是一個不錯的位置。

  • As far as the working capital headwind, so there's no working capital benefit to be had from a cash flow perspective. It was more just calling out the headwinds that were in our numbers prior to the separation of the M&M business. And so if you look at our cash used kind of prior to their separation, the largest portion of the working capital headwind was from the M&M business. So we were just highlighting our actual cash performance would have been better without them in the portfolio.

    就營運資金逆風而言,從現金流的角度來看,沒有營運資金收益。在 M&M 業務分離之前,它更像是在我們的數字中指出逆風。因此,如果您查看我們在分離之前使用的現金,就會發現最大的營運資金逆風來自 M&M 業務。所以我們只是強調如果沒有他們在投資組合中,我們的實際現金表現會更好。

  • So in the quarter, we were 73% as reported for free cash flow conversion. We would have been more in the range of the greater than 90% that we target for the Remainco portfolio had we not had them in the results.

    因此,在本季度,我們報告的自由現金流轉換率為 73%。如果我們沒有在結果中包含 Remainco 投資組合目標,我們本可以達到超過 90% 的範圍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of John Roberts with Credit Suisse.

    你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰羅伯茨。

  • John Ezekiel E. Roberts - Research Analyst

    John Ezekiel E. Roberts - Research Analyst

  • I'll ask just one here. In semiconductor materials, Entegris reduced the December quarter sales by about 10% for the new U.S. restrictions on China. And they also noted the memory chip weakness was affecting CMP disproportionately. Are you seeing anything different in the semiconductor market?

    我在這裡只問一個。在半導體材料方面,由於美國對中國的新限制,Entegris 將 12 月季度的銷售額減少了約 10%。他們還指出,內存芯片的弱點對 CMP 的影響不成比例。您在半導體市場看到了什麼不同之處嗎?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes. Well, on the export control issue in China, there's really 3 restrictions on that. And by the way I would put it in a category of it's more because of advanced chip technology. So the -- for instance, one of them is logic chips at 14 nanometers or below is restricted, it's one of the key ones.

    是的。那麼,在中國的出口管制問題上,實際上有 3 個限制。順便說一句,我會把它歸為一類,更多的是因為先進的芯片技術。因此 - 例如,其中之一是 14 納米或以下的邏輯芯片受到限制,這是關鍵之一。

  • So for us, it's not that big. Most of the fabs in China are not the high-end advanced chips. So if you look at it on an annual basis, if we are restricted and cannot get a license to supply that, there would be about $60 million of revenue for us on an annual basis, so say about $15 million on a quarterly basis, which we took that $15 million into account in our fourth quarter guide that we gave.

    所以對我們來說,它並沒有那麼大。中國的大部分晶圓廠都不是高端先進芯片。因此,如果你按年來看,如果我們受到限制並且無法獲得供應該產品的許可證,那麼我們每年的收入約為 6000 萬美元,也就是說每季度約為 1500 萬美元,這我們在我們提供的第四季度指南中考慮了這 1500 萬美元。

  • Overall, on the semi side, we look at the inventory index, for instance, like Gartner puts out and it's, give or take, 1.1 right now. If you kind of go back to the last downturn of semi back in 2019, it peaked out at 1.31. So just to give you a little bit of a parameter on where that sits. So it's on the high end. We think there's 2 or 3 quarters of correction there that we'll see. But the downturn in 2019 was like 6% to 7% year-over-year downturn. So just to give you some perspective. But at this point in time, it's not at the peak of where it was in the '19 time frame.

    總的來說,在半方面,我們看一下庫存指數,例如,就像 Gartner 發布的那樣,現在是 1.1。如果你回到 2019 年 semi 的最後一次低迷,它達到了 1.31 的峰值。所以只是給你一點關於它所在位置的參數。所以它處於高端。我們認為我們將看到 2 或 3 個季度的修正。但 2019 年的低迷同比下降了 6% 至 7%。所以只是給你一些觀點。但在這個時間點,它還沒有達到 19 年時間框架內的峰值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

    你的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • Are you guys surprised that the 8% price didn't fully cover cost this quarter? Were there some kind of intra-quarter cost increases or surprises there that caught you a little flat-footed?

    你們對本季度 8% 的價格沒有完全覆蓋成本感到驚訝嗎?是否有某種季度內成本增加或意外讓您措手不及?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • No, Scott, it did not. Maybe we misstated it. We did cover all the costs. So our cost inflation, I think last quarter we reported we thought it was around $700 million. It's now $800 million for the year, and that's all based on mostly energy increase in Europe, as you're all aware of, on natural gas.

    不,斯科特,它沒有。也許我們說錯了。我們確實承擔了所有費用。所以我們的成本膨脹,我認為上個季度我們報告我們認為它約為 7 億美元。現在一年是 8 億美元,這主要是基於歐洲的能源增長,正如你們都知道的那樣,天然氣。

  • And by the way, just to give you kind of more color to that, we are obviously seeing commodities start to come off their peak. We thought we would start to maybe start seeing some benefit and hopefully we do in 2023. But then energy spike, so the energy just about to offset what we've been seeing the benefit on the commodity. So hopefully, now as we progress over the next months, we start to see some spread there, that would be helpful.

    順便說一句,為了給你更多的色彩,我們顯然看到商品開始從高峰期回落。我們認為我們可能會開始看到一些好處,希望我們能在 2023 年看到一些好處。但隨後能源飆升,因此能源即將抵消我們一直在商品上看到的好處。所以希望,現在隨著我們在接下來幾個月的進展,我們開始看到一些傳播在那裡,這會有所幫助。

  • But no, we did implement more price increase. We covered the whole $800 million that we're going to have for the year at this point in time. And just to remind you, every price increase we did, we put it into the product cost. We did not do it as surcharges that would fluctuate off an index. So customers would have to negotiate with us when there's any price changes.

    但不,我們確實實施了更多的價格上漲。在這個時間點,我們支付了今年將要擁有的全部 8 億美元。只是提醒你,我們所做的每一次提價,我們都會將其計入產品成本。我們沒有將其作為會隨指數波動的附加費來進行。因此,當有任何價格變化時,客戶必須與我們協商。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • All right. That's super helpful, Ed. And just a little follow-up on Interconnect. I mean, are you guys -- I assume you're selling to Foxconn, are you impacted by the plant shutdown that's been announced?

    好的。這非常有幫助,埃德。還有一點關於互連的跟進。我的意思是,你們 - 我假設你們正在向富士康出售產品,你們是否受到宣布的工廠關閉的影響?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So we did announce a deceleration in our expectations for the Interconnect Solutions in general. So it will be covered by what you're hearing in the headlines with respect to smartphone and consumer electronics and then, ultimately, the underlying PCB demand. So for the year, we now expect Interconnect Solutions to be down mid-single digits. So that would all be wrapped up in that number.

    是的。因此,我們確實宣布降低了對互連解決方案的總體預期。因此,您在頭條新聞中聽到的有關智能手機和消費電子產品以及最終潛在 PCB 需求的內容將涵蓋這一點。因此,對於這一年,我們現在預計互連解決方案將下降到中個位數。所以這一切都包含在那個數字中。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes. Just to give you a perspective, we thought in the second half of the year, ICS would be up mid-single digits. Now it's down mid-single digits. So I think we've taken all that into account.

    是的。只是為了給你一個觀點,我們認為在今年下半年,ICS 將上漲中等個位數。現在它下降了中個位數。所以我認為我們已經考慮了所有這些。

  • And by the way, just to remind you, it's hard to remember this, but we're already 2 quarters into the ICS, that whole PCB smartphone, laptop downturn. So they don't last forever, but we've already had 2 quarters of it.

    順便提醒一下,很難記住這一點,但我們已經進入 ICS 2 個季度,整個 PCB 智能手機、筆記本電腦都處於低迷狀態。所以它們不會永遠持續下去,但我們已經有兩個季度了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

    你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steve Tusa。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Given its election day, I'll make a recommendation, you should run for office someday, Ed.

    鑑於選舉日,我會提出建議,你應該有一天競選公職,艾德。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • I like what I do now.

    我喜歡我現在所做的。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Yes. I think you get the 10 -- votes from the 10 guys who cover the stock, for sure. So just on the fourth quarter price cost, you were 130 bps, I think, headwind this quarter, I believe you said. I might have missed that. Does that -- I assume that gets a little better in the fourth quarter. The math suggests that it may not get better in the fourth quarter.

    是的。我想你肯定會得到 10 個關注該股票的人的 10 票。所以就第四季度的價格成本而言,你是 130 個基點,我認為,本季度逆風,我相信你說過。我可能錯過了。那樣做——我認為第四季度會好一些。數學表明它可能不會在第四季度好轉。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So the dollar does get a little bit less in the fourth quarter because we start to lap some of the prior year increases. And so we're expecting about a 5% price increase in the fourth quarter versus the 8% that we posted in third quarter and then 7% in the second quarter.

    是的。因此,美元在第四季度確實有所下降,因為我們開始回吐去年的部分漲幅。因此,我們預計第四季度價格將上漲 5%,而我們在第三季度公佈的價格上漲 8%,然後在第二季度上漲 7%。

  • As far as the margin headwind, it would be a little bit less, but our underlying guidance does suggest overall EBITDA margin improvement in the fourth quarter. So if you back into the fourth quarter from the full year guide that we gave, we'd be more in the low 24% range from an EBITDA margin perspective versus last year it's 23.2%.

    就利潤率逆風而言,它會稍微小一些,但我們的基本指引確實表明第四季度整體 EBITDA 利潤率有所改善。因此,如果您從我們給出的全年指南迴到第四季度,從 EBITDA 利潤率的角度來看,我們將處於 24% 的較低範圍內,而去年為 23.2%。

  • And I'd highlighted that sequential decline, expected decline in EBITDA margin is really from one seasonality.

    而且我強調了連續下降,EBITDA 利潤率的預期下降實際上是來自一個季節性因素。

  • So we tend to see some seasonality as our volumes are lowest in the fourth quarter. And also, we did elect to take down production to be able to better align our inventory levels. So we are seeing some stabilization in the supply chain that gives us confidence we can start to tweak down these inventory levels. And so there will be a unit cost headwind in the fourth quarter. So those 2 combined are the drivers of the sequential EBITDA margins' decline.

    因此,我們傾向於看到一些季節性,因為我們的銷量在第四季度最低。而且,我們確實選擇了減產,以便能夠更好地調整我們的庫存水平。因此,我們看到供應鏈有所穩定,這讓我們有信心可以開始調整這些庫存水平。因此,第四季度將出現單位成本逆風。因此,這兩個組合是 EBITDA 利潤率連續下降的驅動因素。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • And then just one more question on this. I know you gave the margin headwind, but just so we're on the same page, what was the -- out of the $800 million, how much of that came in 3Q?

    然後還有一個問題。我知道你給了利潤逆風,但只是為了讓我們在同一頁上,在 8 億美元中,第三季度有多少?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • About $240 million.

    約2.4億美元。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Of inflation?

    通貨膨脹?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So we're at $650 million year-to-date and another $150 million in 4Q to get to the $800 million for the full year.

    是的。因此,今年迄今我們的收入為 6.5 億美元,第四季度還有 1.5 億美元,全年達到 8 億美元。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Okay. And any carryover for next year when it comes to price? And you said now inflation, you probably won't get relief there, but any carryover on price into next year?

    好的。明年在價格方面有任何結轉嗎?你說現在通貨膨脹,你可能不會在那裡得到緩解,但價格是否會結轉到明年?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, there should be some, especially in first quarter. So that's when we really started to ramp the price increases. And then we did see some inflation start to ramp in the first quarter. Our number hasn't materially changed. I believe, back in Q2, we thought the full year would be $500 million. So we did see some escalation in the 2Q time frame. But the numbers have been starting to normalize in the back half of the year. So the increases that we just saw recently have been more in the European natural gas side versus the underlying raw material side.

    是的,應該有一些,尤其是在第一季度。所以那是我們真正開始提價的時候。然後我們確實看到一些通貨膨脹在第一季度開始上升。我們的號碼沒有實質性改變。我相信,回到第二季度,我們認為全年將達到 5 億美元。所以我們確實看到了第二季度時間框架內的一些升級。但這些數字在今年下半年開始正常化。因此,我們最近看到的增長更多地發生在歐洲天然氣方面,而不是基礎原材料方面。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Steve, it's going to be interesting for all of us going into 2023 as we work our way through it how carry through and handles this price cost issue because the commodities are definitely coming down pretty uniformly. Not crazy, but they're down 20%, 25% in many cases. So if the natural gas thing settles out, I think we've peaked on all this inflation and then how do we handle price cost as we move forward with all the price that we got.

    史蒂夫,進入 2023 年對我們所有人來說都會很有趣,因為我們正在努力解決這個價格成本問題,因為大宗商品肯定會非常均勻地下降。不瘋狂,但他們下降了 20%,在許多情況下下降了 25%。因此,如果天然氣問題得到解決,我認為我們已經達到了所有這些通貨膨脹的頂峰,然後我們將如何處理價格成本,因為我們將獲得所有價格。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Mike Leithead with Barclays.

    你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

  • Michael James Leithead - Research Analyst

    Michael James Leithead - Research Analyst

  • Great. Just one for me. Ed, I was hoping you could provide what -- to the degree you can, a bit more color about the decision to walk away from Rogers as opposed to pursuing another extension or rework transaction. It sounds like you're saying it was ultimately unworkable from a regulatory perspective. Is that fair? Was it just an issue of sitting in limbo for an elongated period of time here?

    偉大的。只給我一個。埃德,我希望你能提供什麼——在你能做到的程度上,對離開羅傑斯而不是尋求另一次延期或返工交易的決定有更多的色彩。聽起來你是在說從監管的角度來看它最終是行不通的。這公平嗎?只是在這里長時間處於困境中的問題嗎?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • No, it's very simple. We did not get regulatory approval in China. It had been a full year. That was our outside date. And we ended it, which was the contractual agreement. So really, there's nothing more to it.

    不,這很簡單。我們在中國沒有獲得監管部門的批准。已經整整一年了。那是我們的約會對象。我們結束了它,這是合同協議。所以真的,沒有什麼比這更多的了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

    您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John McNulty。

  • John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

    John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

  • Ed, you spoke a little bit to the Interconnect Solutions' weakness. Can you speak a little bit broader in terms of the macro trends that you're starting to see right now? Some of your business is pretty resilient through that. But are you starting to pull any levers just on macro concerns at this point that we should be thinking about?

    Ed,您談到了互連解決方案的弱點。就您現在開始看到的宏觀趨勢而言,您能說得更廣泛一點嗎?通過這種方式,您的某些業務非常有彈性。但是,在我們應該考慮的這一點上,您是否開始僅僅針對宏觀問題採取任何措施?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes. I'll let Lori start out, and I'll add some color.

    是的。我會讓 Lori 開始,我會添加一些顏色。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I think as far as pulling leverage to make sure that we drive the best margin profile that we can, we did announce in the Q that we'll come out this afternoon a restructuring program. Initially, it's really just to get after the stranded cost from the M&M transaction now that it has closed. So we signaled about $50 million of stranded costs associated with the M&M transaction. So we'll get at those first to take those out to be able to drive further profitability.

    是的。我認為,就拉動槓桿以確保我們盡可能提高利潤率而言,我們確實在 Q 中宣布我們將在今天下午推出重組計劃。最初,它真的只是為了從 M&M 交易中獲得擱淺成本,因為它已經關閉。因此,我們表示與 M&M 交易相關的擱淺成本約為 5000 萬美元。因此,我們將首先解決這些問題,以便能夠進一步提高盈利能力。

  • And then we've got room underneath the restructuring that we announced to take further cost action as appropriate if we start to see further deceleration in the top line.

    然後,如果我們開始看到營收進一步減速,我們在宣布的重組中有空間,可以酌情採取進一步的成本行動。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • And we have already, as a management team, laid out what those. So we'll do the stranded costs, as Lori said, but we've already laid out the detailed actions we do for some additional restructuring if we felt it was needed.

    作為一個管理團隊,我們已經列出了這些內容。因此,正如 Lori 所說,我們將承擔擱淺成本,但如果我們認為有必要,我們已經制定了為進行額外重組而採取的詳細行動。

  • And then I'll go back to the point I made a minute ago, there's a big lever in price cost that we're going to have to figure how that plays out through 2023.

    然後我會回到我一分鐘前提出的觀點,價格成本有一個很大的槓桿,我們將不得不弄清楚到 2023 年它會如何發揮作用。

  • John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

    John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

  • Got it. Got it. No, makes sense. Fair enough. And then just -- maybe just a follow-up on the M&A questions from before. So I guess with Rogers clearly having some problems on the regulatory front, and maybe it's a political thing, U.S. and China or not, it seems like a lot of things are kind of getting held up at this point. Does it make it hard for DuPont going forward to make acquisitions in the electronics area? And should we be thinking going forward that bolt-ons would be more focused on the Water and protection area? Or is that really not the right read on this?

    知道了。知道了。不,有道理。很公平。然後——也許只是對之前併購問題的跟進。所以我猜羅傑斯顯然在監管方面存在一些問題,也許這是一個政治問題,美國和中國與否,似乎很多事情在這一點上都被擱置了。杜邦公司在電子領域進行收購是否會變得困難?我們是否應該考慮向前推進,將更多的重點放在水和保護區上?或者這真的不是正確的閱讀方式嗎?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Let me say it this way, just by the way it's played out, some of the things we're interested in happened to be in Water and happened to be in the industrial technology space. So I guess if it stays their kind of targeted for down the road when we want to do something, it's probably not an issue that we would have to deal with. And who knows on the electronics? I just don't know the answer to that. We don't know what we don't know.

    讓我這樣說吧,就它的播放方式而言,我們感興趣的一些事情恰好在 Water 中,恰好在工業技術領域。所以我想如果我們想做某事時它仍然是他們的目標,那可能不是我們必須處理的問題。誰知道電子產品?我只是不知道答案。我們不知道我們不知道什麼。

  • But having said that, I mean, we loved Rogers coming in because it added some tools in the toolkit. But we have a very comprehensive portfolio in electronics. With the Laird in there, it's really been beneficial. Laird has been performing awesome. And they've gotten -- as we highlighted, I think last earnings, they've gotten some wins for DuPont technology with some Laird customers. And also, I don't feel bad about where we're at, at all in the electronics side.

    但話雖如此,我的意思是,我們喜歡 Rogers 的加入,因為它在工具包中添加了一些工具。但我們在電子產品方面擁有非常全面的產品組合。有了 Laird,這真的很有幫助。萊爾德表現出色。他們已經 - 正如我們強調的那樣,我認為上次收益,他們已經為一些萊爾德客戶贏得了杜邦技術的一些勝利。而且,我對我們在電子方面所處的位置並不感到難過。

  • Again, it would have been nice to have Rogers, but -- and we're not probably looking at an electronics deal anyway at this point in time. So not going to be an issue.

    再說一次,如果有羅傑斯,那就太好了,但是——我們目前可能還沒有考慮電子產品交易。所以不會成為問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

  • Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

    Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

  • How do you think about the debt reduction versus potentially doing even larger buyback for this trench of capital allocation?

    您如何看待減少債務與可能為這一資本配置渠道進行更大規模的回購?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Well, first of all, and we said this in our prepared comments, we'll do the $5 billion repurchase. And by the way, we can be in the market -- in the open market doing some of that if we feel it's appropriate during the year, depending on what the economy is looking like. So it's -- the ASR will take us 8, 9 months, but we can be over the top doing some additional purchase. So we'll just see how that plays out. But -- and have the opportunity to do another ASR right on the heels, if that's how we want to handle it. So we have our options open to us there.

    好吧,首先,我們在準備好的評論中說過,我們將進行 50 億美元的回購。順便說一句,我們可以在市場上——在公開市場上做一些事情,如果我們認為在這一年中合適的話,這取決於經濟狀況。所以它——ASR 將花費我們 8、9 個月的時間,但我們可以做一些額外的購買。所以我們看看結果如何。但是 - 並且有機會緊接著進行另一個 ASR,如果這是我們想要處理的方式的話。所以我們在那裡可以選擇。

  • But we also have a fair amount of firepower as we kind of go through 2023, if you do the math. And again, it would be for bolt-on potential acquisition, but we also have the opportunity to do more share repurchase if we want. So we don't need to make those decisions now, but we'll contemplate that as we go through 2023.

    但如果你算一下,我們也有相當多的火力,因為我們會經歷 2023 年。再一次,這將是為了補強潛在的收購,但如果我們願意,我們也有機會進行更多的股票回購。所以我們現在不需要做出這些決定,但我們會在 2023 年時考慮這一點。

  • Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

    Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

  • Thanks, Ed. And going back to Interconnect business, would you try to maybe forecast when this reaches a bottom? Do you think Q4 or Q1 could be when it starts -- stops going negative?

    謝謝,埃德。回到互連業務,你會嘗試預測它何時觸底嗎?您認為第 4 季度或第 1 季度可能是它開始的時候——停止變為負數嗎?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. It does feel like we have reached the bottom in the Interconnect space between the PCB application. So as Ed had mentioned, we're a good 2 quarters in, so it feels like we bottomed out. We're not ready to call kind of growth in the next quarter or anything, but we do feel like the deceleration has plateaued.

    是的。確實感覺我們已經到達了 PCB 應用之間互連空間的底部。所以正如 Ed 所提到的,我們已經進入了 2 個季度,所以感覺我們已經觸底了。我們還沒有準備好在下一季度或任何時候稱之為增長,但我們確實覺得減速已經趨於平穩。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes, we got a peak pretty deep into it at this point in time. I mean the PCB players in China really shut down. So I think they're correcting their inventory really quickly. I mean, they truly shut down. It's not like they cut back on production. So I think they can fix things pretty quickly. And so I don't want to put a date on kind of building out of it. But again, we are pretty far into it months wise at this point in time.

    是的,我們在這個時間點達到了一個非常深入的高峰。我的意思是中國的PCB廠商真的倒閉了。所以我認為他們正在非常迅速地糾正他們的庫存。我的意思是,他們真的關閉了。這不像他們削減生產。所以我認為他們可以很快解決問題。因此,我不想確定從中構建的日期。但同樣,在這個時間點,我們已經走了幾個月了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

    你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Mike Sison。

  • Michael Joseph Sison - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Michael Joseph Sison - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Nice quarter. Just one question for me. It seems like the consensus view is for a recession next year. Can you maybe talk about each of the businesses and how it should perform in a downturn?

    不錯的季度。只問我一個問題。似乎普遍認為明年會出現衰退。您能否談談每項業務及其在經濟低迷時期的表現?

  • And just when I think about the fourth quarter outlook, multiplying that by 4 probably isn't the right way to think about a recession case and maybe walk through the puts and takes of that sort of potential.

    就在我考慮第四季度的前景時,將其乘以 4 可能不是思考經濟衰退案例的正確方法,也可能不是考慮這種潛力的正確方法。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I mean, I think, first, starting in the financials, I think you're right to take the fourth quarter, it tends to be usually our seasonally weakest quarter. And so to take it and run rate it could be difficult.

    是的。我的意思是,我認為,首先,從財務開始,我認為第四季度是正確的,它通常是我們季節性最弱的季度。因此,要接受它並按比例運行可能很困難。

  • I wanted to highlight, too, just the natural EPS growth that we have from the actions that we've taken on the capital allocation side which will bolster us as we head into 2023. So between the share repurchase that we announced today at the $3.25 billion, the lower interest income that we called out of -- lower interest expense that we called out of $100 million and further interest income from the cash that we'll be holding in the balance sheet, we've got north of 15% EPS growth just from those actions alone. So nice to be -- positioned to be in as we head into 2023.

    我也想強調,我們在資本配置方面採取的行動帶來的每股收益自然增長將在我們進入 2023 年時為我們提供支持。所以在我們今天宣布的 3.25 美元的股票回購之間億美元,我們調出的較低利息收入——我們調出 1 億美元的較低利息支出,以及我們將在資產負債表中持有的現金的更多利息收入,我們的每股收益超過 15%增長僅來自於這些行動。很高興成為 - 在我們進入 2023 年時做好準備。

  • As Ed had mentioned, we'll aim to maintain favorability on the price/cost side as we start to continue to see the commodity prices decline. And I did highlight that we have initiated a cost restructuring program should we need it beyond the stranded costs that we've highlighted to take out.

    正如 Ed 所提到的,隨著我們開始繼續看到大宗商品價格下跌,我們的目標是保持價格/成本方面的優勢。我確實強調了我們已經啟動了一項成本重組計劃,如果我們需要它超出我們強調要取出的擱淺成本的話。

  • So from that perspective and from maintaining a good margin profile, I feel like we're protected as we head into next year. And from an end market perspective, we've highlighted that we probably feel like we're already 2 quarters into the consumer electronics downturn and the semi piece that I had highlighted, the inventory index that we pay attention to. And so while it is elevated versus where it was during the pandemic, it's not as elevated as it was back in the 2019 time frame when we saw semi volumes down in the mid-single-digit range.

    因此,從這個角度來看,從保持良好的利潤率來看,我覺得我們在進入明年時受到了保護。從終端市場的角度來看,我們已經強調,我們可能覺得我們已經進入消費電子低迷的兩個季度和我強調的半成品,即我們關注的庫存指數。因此,儘管它與大流行期間的水平相比有所上升,但它並沒有回到 2019 年的時間框架內那麼高,當時我們看到半交易量下降到中個位數範圍內。

  • From the industrial side of the portfolio, so the remaining piece of electronics and then the broadness of W&P beside the shelter piece, those pieces, they're pretty stable. So Water, we've got a really nice backlog, at least 6 months of backlog in the Water business. A nice performance on the defense side, especially on the aero piece within the safety portfolio as we see those markets continue to recover.

    從產品組合的工業方面來看,剩下的電子產品,然後是 W&P 在庇護所旁邊的廣泛性,這些部分,它們非常穩定。所以水,我們有一個非常好的積壓,水業務至少有 6 個月的積壓。在防禦方面表現出色,尤其是在安全產品組合中的航空部件方面,我們看到這些市場繼續復甦。

  • The one piece besides consumer electronics and semi that we're paying close attention to is obviously the Shelter business. The North America residential side, which is about 40% of the business, we'll pay close attention to, obviously, with the news out there on the potential headwinds in that space, but we're not seeing anything material at this point, so...

    除了我們密切關注的消費電子產品和半成品之外,顯然還有 Shelter 業務。北美住宅方面,約佔業務的 40%,我們將密切關注,顯然,關於該領域潛在逆風的消息,但我們目前沒有看到任何實質性的東西,所以...

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

    你的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

  • Daniel Dalton Rizzo - Equity Analyst

    Daniel Dalton Rizzo - Equity Analyst

  • This is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. You mentioned before about having prices not be surcharges, but just kind of be in the production cost or in the cost of the product. I was wondering, historically speaking, have you ever -- with that scenario, have you ever had to give price concessions? Or are they generally relatively sticky?

    這是勞倫斯的丹·里佐。你之前提到過價格不是附加費,而只是一種生產成本或產品成本。我想知道,從歷史上看,你有沒有 - 在這種情況下,你是否曾經不得不給予價格讓步?或者它們通常比較粘?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Well, I think for all of us, it's hard to totally answer that question because we never had inflation like this in at least in my career and raised prices as much as all of us have. So our game plan clearly is to keep a spread there because I'm a strong believer we have big intellectual property, a lot of our products are needed, they're the best in the industry and they should have good EBITDA margins with them. And generally, we do have very good EBIT margins across the board. So the game will be to keep that spread there.

    好吧,我認為對我們所有人來說,很難完全回答這個問題,因為至少在我的職業生涯中我們從來沒有經歷過這樣的通貨膨脹,而且我們所有人都提高了價格。所以我們的遊戲計劃顯然是在那裡保持傳播,因為我堅信我們擁有大量的知識產權,需要我們的很多產品,它們是行業中最好的,它們應該有很好的 EBITDA 利潤率。一般來說,我們的息稅前利潤率確實非常好。因此,遊戲將保持這種傳播在那裡。

  • But when you've had this kind of inflation, I don't think you'll hold on to all of it, and I don't think any company holds on to all of it, by and large, but can you keep a spread will be the real game.

    但是當你經歷了這種通貨膨脹時,我不認為你會堅持下去,我不認為任何公司都能堅持下去,總的來說,但你能保持一個傳播將是真正的遊戲。

  • Daniel Dalton Rizzo - Equity Analyst

    Daniel Dalton Rizzo - Equity Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then just one other question. In terms of FX, you mentioned the headwinds. I was wondering if there's -- if you've ever given a rule of thumb, like a $0.05 move in the euro versus $1 or something like that where the basket translates into x percent in -- I'm sorry, in sales or EBITDA?

    這很有幫助。然後是另一個問題。在外匯方面,您提到了逆風。我想知道是否有——如果你曾經給出過經驗法則,比如歐元兌 1 美元波動 0.05 美元或類似的東西,其中籃子轉化為 x%——對不起,在銷售額或 EBITDA 中?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • So we've never given a rule of thumb the drop-down from the top line headwind. So in the fourth quarter, we expect about a 6% year-over-year headwind from a currency perspective. The drop through down into EBIT is not materially different than the overall EBITDA margin that we have for the total company. So you could use that to kind of model where we think the roughly $200 million year-over-year headwind in currency translates to EBITDA.

    因此,我們從未給出過頂線逆風下降的經驗法則。因此,從貨幣角度來看,我們預計第四季度將出現約 6% 的逆風。 EBIT 的下降與我們對整個公司的總體 EBITDA 利潤率沒有實質性不同。因此,您可以將其用於我們認為大約 2 億美元的同比逆風轉化為 EBITDA 的模型。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho Securities.

    你的下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的克里斯托弗帕金森。

  • Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst

  • Just given the solid result on W&P margins on your longer-term pathway back to '27, '28, has the calculus changed at all between the buckets of price cost over intermediate to long term, improving ops and just overall business mix? Is there any change of thought process? Or is just hey, we have a lot of things going in the right direction, and we'll get there in due course.

    鑑於 W&P 利潤率在您回到 27 年、28 年的長期道路上取得的可靠結果,中長期價格成本、改善運營和整體業務組合之間的計算是否發生了根本變化?思維過程有什麼變化嗎?或者只是嘿,我們有很多事情都朝著正確的方向發展,我們會在適當的時候到達那裡。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • No, there's no change in the EBITDA margin improvement drivers that you had mentioned. The one piece that we'll continue to watch, as I had mentioned, was can we drive continued favorability within the margin improvement from price cost? So as the costs start to decelerate, are we able to maintain a more favorable price profile?

    不,您提到的 EBITDA 利潤率改善驅動因素沒有變化。正如我之前提到的,我們將繼續關注的一件事情是,我們能否在價格成本的利潤率改善範圍內推動持續的受歡迎程度?因此,隨著成本開始下降,我們是否能夠保持更有利的價格狀況?

  • Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst

  • Got it. And just very quickly on E&I., are you seeing any changes in deferrals in leading-edge capacity ramps in any way, shape or form in terms of core MSI heading into 2023? In any way, does that change your expectation for 200 to 300 basis points of outperformance? Just any color on that, let's just say, preliminary framework would be very helpful.

    知道了。在 E&I 上很快,您是否看到在進入 2023 年的核心 MSI 方面以任何方式、形狀或形式推遲前沿容量斜坡的任何變化?無論如何,這是否會改變您對 200 至 300 個基點的優異表現的預期?隨便說一下,初步框架會非常有幫助。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I would say longer term, there's no material change in the profile of high single-digit CapEx going in and driving high single-digit increases in production. Some of the numbers, as we head into 2023 from a market research expectations, do see a decline in MSI. So the initial numbers right now are around a 5% decline in MSI, but we would still expect that same outperformance of 200 to 300 basis points. And so if MSI is down 5% next year, we would expect to be down 200 to 300 basis points ahead of that.

    是的。我會說從長遠來看,高個位數的資本支出進入並推動產量高個位數增長的情況沒有實質性變化。當我們從市場研究預期進入 2023 年時,一些數字確實看到了 MSI 的下降。因此,目前的初始數據是 MSI 下降了 5% 左右,但我們仍然預計同樣會有 200 到 300 個基點的出色表現。因此,如果 MSI 明年下跌 5%,我們預計在此之前會下跌 200 至 300 個基點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

    你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

  • Joshua David Spector - Equity Research Associate - Chemicals

    Joshua David Spector - Equity Research Associate - Chemicals

  • I wanted to follow up on the recession question earlier. So you said not annualizing -- annualizing fourth quarter is not the right way to look at it. That's about $3 billion in EBITDA. Talked a lot about positive points that you could have on the price cost side and some of the restructuring items. I mean is it fair to say that you're starting bogey for next year from an EBITDA perspective is about flat year-over-year even in a recessionary environment?

    我想跟進早些時候的經濟衰退問題。所以你說不年化——年化第四季度不是正確的看待它的方式。 EBITDA 約為 30 億美元。談了很多關於價格成本方面和一些重組項目的積極觀點。我的意思是說,即使在經濟衰退的環境下,從 EBITDA 的角度來看,你明年開始忌諱與去年同期持平,這公平嗎?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I think it's a little too early to call what 2023 EBITDA looks like. So we highlighted the actions that we're taking to drive EPS improvement from the share repurchase and from overall improved performance in interest expense and interest income. But we haven't really indicated anything yet about what the EBITDA profile would look like beyond the actions that we're taking on the cost side to take out the stranded costs and then we've got the ability to do more there should we see further need to.

    是的。我認為現在說 2023 年的 EBITDA 是什麼樣子還為時過早。因此,我們強調了我們正在採取的行動,以通過股票回購以及利息支出和利息收入的整體改善來推動 EPS 的改善。但是,除了我們在成本方面採取的行動以消除擱淺成本之外,我們還沒有真正表明 EBITDA 概況會是什麼樣子,然後我們有能力在那裡做更多的事情,如果我們看到的話進一步需要。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • A lot of it, by the way, comes down to how you will individually model a recession scenario next year, and therefore, how do you model commodity inflation or deflation coming, because that's going to have a big bearing on all our -- all the multi-industrial companies if you start seeing that benefit.

    順便說一句,其中很多都歸結為你將如何單獨模擬明年的衰退情景,因此,你如何模擬即將到來的商品通脹或通貨緊縮,因為這將對我們所有人產生重大影響 - 所有多行業公司,如果你開始看到這種好處。

  • And then back to a question earlier, can you hold some of that, I think is really going to be an interesting question for all the multi-industrials. So how that plays out is very different than any other recession we've been through.

    然後回到之前的一個問題,你能不能持有一些,我認為這對所有的多行業來說真的是一個有趣的問題。因此,這種情況的結果與我們經歷過的任何其他衰退都截然不同。

  • Joshua David Spector - Equity Research Associate - Chemicals

    Joshua David Spector - Equity Research Associate - Chemicals

  • Yes. Understood. Fair point. And I just wanted to follow up on W&P and just specifically, I guess, the Shelter side. Are you seeing any destocking? Is that baked into your fourth quarter guidance? I guess, we've seen other firms talk about pretty severe destocking globally and even in North America into construction markets. So I'm just curious where you stand on that cycle or what the risk is of that increasing or accelerating into early next year?

    是的。明白了。有道理。我只是想跟進 W&P,我想特別是 Shelter 方面。你看到任何去庫存嗎?這是否包含在您的第四季度指導中?我想,我們已經看到其他公司談論在全球甚至北美進入建築市場的相當嚴重的去庫存化。所以我很好奇你站在那個週期的哪個位置,或者明年年初增加或加速的風險是什麼?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, I wouldn't say there's anything material at this point. There are elevated inventory levels at some of the big box retailers, but we haven't seen any material destocking yet at this point. So we did see positive volume growth in Shelter in Q4. And I'll just remind you of the distribution of the Shelter business, roughly $1.8 billion of sales, about 40% of it is commercial, which seems -- which remains to be very strong for us. So that's selling into health care and education and other types of commercial applications. 40% residential and then 20% kind of the do-it-yourself market.

    是的,我不會說此時有任何實質性內容。一些大型零售商的庫存水平較高,但目前我們還沒有看到任何實質性的去庫存。因此,我們確實在第四季度看到了 Shelter 的銷量正增長。我只想提醒你避難所業務的分佈,大約 18 億美元的銷售額,其中大約 40% 是商業的,這對我們來說仍然非常強勁。所以這就是銷售到醫療保健和教育以及其他類型的商業應用程序。 40% 是住宅,然後是 20% 的自助市場。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • And we did -- just as a correction, we did see positive volume growth in Shelter in Q3. We're assuming that moderates a little bit going forward as Lori noted, given inventory in the channel. But it really hasn't changed materially in the order book today.

    我們確實做到了——作為修正,我們確實看到第三季度 Shelter 的銷量正增長。鑑於渠道中的庫存,我們假設正如 Lori 指出的那樣,這種情況會有所緩和。但它在今天的訂單簿中確實沒有發生重大變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

    你的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

  • Arun Shankar Viswanathan - Senior Equity Analyst

    Arun Shankar Viswanathan - Senior Equity Analyst

  • I guess I had two questions. So first off, when you think about the volume outlook, could you just describe maybe the volume outlook for Water in some of the portfolio -- parts of the portfolio that are less economically sensitive? Do you see kind of the lower peak-to-trough variability on earnings playing out as you expected with your earlier communication?

    我想我有兩個問題。因此,首先,當您考慮交易量前景時,您能否描述一下某些投資組合中 Water 的交易量前景——投資組合中對經濟不太敏感的部分?您是否像您之前的溝通所預期的那樣,看到收益的峰谷波動性較低?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, we do see continued strength in water. So in the quarter -- third quarter, volumes were up low double digits and we see kind of mid-single-digit growth in Q4. And as I had mentioned, we've got a really nice backlog there. So should there be any moderation in demand, we've got over 6 months of the backlog that we can work down to be able to bolster the overall volume profile for the Water business.

    是的,我們確實看到了水的持續強勢。因此,在本季度 - 第三季度,銷量增長了兩位數,我們看到第四季度出現了中等個位數的增長。正如我所提到的,我們在那裡有一個非常好的積壓。因此,如果需求出現任何放緩,我們已經有超過 6 個月的積壓工作,我們可以處理這些積壓工作,以加強水務業務的整體銷量。

  • Arun Shankar Viswanathan - Senior Equity Analyst

    Arun Shankar Viswanathan - Senior Equity Analyst

  • And then just a question on capital allocation. You obviously have some proceeds left over after the debt reduction and the share repurchase. Is there a time line that you'd look to deploy that, say, $2-plus billion? Is there any kind of thoughts you could offer for us how to think about that will be deployed?

    然後只是一個關於資本配置的問題。在債務削減和股票回購之後,你顯然還有一些收益剩餘。是否有您希望部署的時間表,比如 2 多億美元?您是否可以為我們提供任何想法來考慮如何部署?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Well, we -- so it's interesting. We're moving as fast as we can on the share repurchase. We can only take out so much volume so quick, so we'll move as fast as we can there. And then as we said earlier, just to puncture again, we are in no rush to do anything from a bolt-on M&A standpoint. We want to see how the economy is going to play out. There might even be a better entry point 6 months, 8 months, a year down the road. So I wouldn't answer that we have -- whatever excess cash we have at this point in time, there's really nothing we're going to do with it presently and we'll just monitor the next few months on that.

    好吧,我們 - 這很有趣。我們正在盡可能快地進行股票回購。我們只能這麼快地取出這麼多的體積,所以我們會盡可能快地移動。然後正如我們之前所說,只是為了再次刺破,從補強併購的角度來看,我們並不急於做任何事情。我們想看看經濟將如何發展。未來 6 個月、8 個月、一年甚至可能會有更好的切入點。所以我不會回答我們有 - 無論我們在這個時間點有多少多餘的現金,我們目前都不會用它做任何事情,我們只會在接下來的幾個月裡對此進行監控。

  • And remember, we still have to sell Delrin, so we don't have the money for that yet, and that's probably more towards the back half of 2023 at this point in time.

    請記住,我們仍然必須出售 Delrin,所以我們還沒有足夠的錢,這可能更接近 2023 年下半年的這個時間點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

    你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

  • David L. Begleiter - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    David L. Begleiter - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • Ed, Auto Adhesive is doing quite well. What are the prospects of this business? And will it always -- will it stay in Corporate & Other going forward?

    艾德,Auto Adhesive 做得很好。這項業務的前景如何?它會永遠 - 它會繼續留在公司和其他地方嗎?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Well, Lori manages it, and it's growing like a weed so I'll let her answer it.

    好吧,Lori 處理了它,它像雜草一樣生長,所以我會讓她回答。

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So we are seeing really nice growth in the Auto Adhesives, primarily driven by the conversion and the opportunity that we have on the battery side. And so we saw the 25% organic growth in the third quarter, and we expect further growth as we move forward. The distribution between ICE and EV from a 2022 builds perspective is really pretty disparate. So the overall expectation for ICE vehicles is actually, I think, to be slightly down. And for EV, EV-related materials is to be up well into the double digits. And so that dynamic is what is playing into our growth portfolio as we move forward.

    是的。因此,我們看到汽車粘合劑的增長非常好,這主要是由電池方面的轉換和機會推動的。因此,我們在第三季度看到了 25% 的有機增長,我們預計隨著我們的前進會有進一步的增長。從 2022 年的構建角度來看,ICE 和 EV 之間的分佈確實非常不同。因此,我認為對 ICE 車輛的總體預期實際上略有下降。對於電動汽車,與電動汽車相關的材料將達到兩位數。因此,隨著我們前進,這種動力正在影響我們的增長組合。

  • As far as finding the permanent home for the Adhesives business, it will not stay in corporate. So here in short order, we'll figure out where those businesses need to be aligned. We wanted to make the decision after we had got through the Rogers decision. And now that we know that path forward, we can figure out where these businesses reside permanently going forward.

    至於為粘合劑業務尋找永久歸宿,它不會留在公司。因此,在短期內,我們將找出這些業務需要在哪些方面保持一致。我們想在通過羅傑斯的決定後做出決定。既然我們知道了前進的道路,我們就可以弄清楚這些企業在未來的永久位置。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes. We think we can leverage it well with some of our other auto exposure, especially on the EV side. So we'll organize ourselves to advantage ourselves as we talk to that customer base that we have other products and opportunities to sell into. So it will advantage the adhesive business over time.

    是的。我們認為我們可以很好地利用我們的其他一些汽車曝光,特別是在電動汽車方面。因此,當我們與我們有其他產品和銷售機會的客戶群交談時,我們將組織自己以發揮自己的優勢。因此,隨著時間的推移,它將有利於粘合劑業務。

  • But by the way, we're feeling very good about our win rate there. And you can see by the organic growth, Lori, what was that? Yes, 25% growth is pretty spectacular in that business. And I don't see it slowing down just because of what Lori just described, the EV build rates coming over the next 5 years.

    但順便說一句,我們對我們在那裡的勝率感覺非常好。你可以從有機增長中看到,Lori,那是什麼?是的,25% 的增長在該業務中是相當驚人的。而且我不認為它會因為 Lori 剛剛描述的內容而放緩,即未來 5 年的電動汽車建造速度。

  • David L. Begleiter - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    David L. Begleiter - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • Very good. Ed, do you have an update on PFAS and the South Carolina MDL?

    很好。 Ed,你有關於 PFAS 和南卡羅來納州 MDL 的最新消息嗎?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Nothing really new to report, although we've been in pretty intense conversations. Just let you know; I am personally involved with my General Counsel. And we're really hoping we get to a resolution, but I don't want to put a time line on it.

    雖然我們一直在進行非常激烈的對話,但並沒有什麼新鮮事要報告。只是讓你知道;我親自參與我的總法律顧問。我們真的希望我們能達成解決方案,但我不想在上面設定時間表。

  • But -- and just I think this is public knowledge. The judge has continued to encourage settlement talks with the plaintiffs here. And that's a good sign and potentially even using a mediator. And so we've made tremendous progress, but I don't want to put a time line on it. It's a continuing process. And you know very well, we want to get the water district cases settled, that's really the big focus for us.

    但是——而且我認為這是公共知識。法官繼續鼓勵與這裡的原告進行和解談判。這是一個好兆頭,甚至有可能使用調解員。所以我們取得了巨大的進步,但我不想給它設定時間表。這是一個持續的過程。你很清楚,我們希望解決水區案件,這確實是我們的重點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    你的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Steve Byrne。

  • Stephen V. Byrne - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Stephen V. Byrne - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Yes. Ed, you made a comment about some cross-selling between Laird and legacy DuPont. And you also made the comment about (technical difficulty)

    是的。 Ed,您對 Laird 和傳統杜邦之間的一些交叉銷售發表了評論。你也發表了關於(技術難度)的評論

  • Christopher H. Mecray - VP of IR

    Christopher H. Mecray - VP of IR

  • Steve, are you there?

    史蒂夫,你在嗎?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • We lost Steve.

    我們失去了史蒂夫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

    您的下一個問題來自 Frank Mitsch 與 Fermium Research 的合作。

  • Frank Joseph Mitsch - President

    Frank Joseph Mitsch - President

  • Looking geographically, obviously, very strong growth in North America for the quarter, but still high single digits in Asia and in Europe. And I'm curious if you could provide an outlook here in Q4. What are you seeing so far in those regions as many others have talked about some of the difficulties that they've been seeing there?

    從地域上看,很明顯,本季度北美增長非常強勁,但亞洲和歐洲的增長仍然很高。我很好奇你能否在第四季度提供一個展望。到目前為止,您在這些地區看到了什麼,因為許多其他人已經談到了他們在那裡看到的一些困難?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So as you had noted, we had really strong performance in North America and Asia Pacific. As we look into the fourth quarter, our overall volume expectation in the guidance that we had provided was to be about flat. So that's versus about the 3% that we saw in Q3, where the top of the house North America had mid-single-digit volume and Asia Pacific had kind of low single-digit volumes.

    是的。正如您所指出的,我們在北美和亞太地區的表現非常強勁。當我們展望第四季度時,我們提供的指導中的總體銷量預期大致持平。因此,這與我們在第三季度看到的大約 3% 相比,北美地區的頂級銷量為中個位數,而亞太地區的銷量為低個位數。

  • So as we head into 4Q, we don't see a material change in the Asia Pacific volumes or Europe, we do see a little bit of a deceleration in the North America volumes, so more in the low single-digit range. And so overall, racking up to about flat year-over-year.

    因此,當我們進入第四季度時,我們沒有看到亞太地區或歐洲的銷量發生重大變化,我們確實看到北美銷量略有下降,所以更多的是在較低的個位數範圍內。總的來說,同比持平。

  • On top of that, there was the price piece that would provide us with a nice organic number. And so we will continue to see, as I had mentioned earlier in the call about 5% price increase.

    最重要的是,價格部分將為我們提供一個不錯的有機數字。因此,正如我之前在電話會議中提到的那樣,我們將繼續看到價格上漲約 5%。

  • Frank Joseph Mitsch - President

    Frank Joseph Mitsch - President

  • Understood. And you indicated that you're going to lower operating rates in the fourth quarter. Obviously, Interconnect stands out as an area. Where else may be looking to lower your operating rates in the fourth quarter?

    明白了。你表示你將在第四季度降低開工率。顯然,互連作為一個領域脫穎而出。在第四季度,還有哪些地方可能會降低您的開工率?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. It's generally across all the lines of business just as we get more comfortable with the supply chain environment. So we feel like things have normalized there so that we can be a little bit more aggressive on the inventory front. And so it's across all the lines of business that we'll be reducing production rates.

    是的。隨著我們對供應鏈環境越來越熟悉,它通常遍及所有業務線。因此,我們覺得那裡的情況已經正常化,因此我們可以在庫存方面更加積極一些。因此,我們將降低所有業務線的生產率。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Yes. So look, we made a fundamental decision, we did it a couple of years ago. We were losing some EBITDA at the expense of lowering working capital, and we decided to make that decision to get more in line going into 2023 with where we want to be from an inventory standpoint.

    是的。所以看,我們做出了一個根本性的決定,我們在幾年前就做了。我們以降低營運資金為代價損失了一些 EBITDA,我們決定做出這個決定,以便從庫存的角度來看,讓我們在進入 2023 年時更加符合我們想要達到的目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your final question comes from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    你的最後一個問題來自美銀美林的 Steve Byrne。

  • Stephen V. Byrne - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Stephen V. Byrne - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Will give it another shot here. I just wanted to hear your view on your pipeline, in R&D in each of your businesses. Putting end market outlook aside, where do you see the potential for the most growth from internal R&D discovery?

    會在這裡再試一次。我只是想听聽你對你的管道的看法,在你的每個業務的研發中。拋開終端市場前景不談,您認為內部研發發現的最大增長潛力在哪裡?

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • Well, the biggest -- look, the biggest area always for us and it's quicker cycle is the E&I business and more centered in electronics business. We have an 8% R&D spend there. It's very, very robust, and we're constantly introducing new products in that area, Steve. But one of the areas we're really focusing on -- remember, one of the strengths at DuPont is the application engineering expertise. We live with our customers and we do design and work with them. And we're really focused on leveraging, for instance, the Laird platform with the existing DuPont technology.

    嗯,最大的 - 看,對我們來說最大的領域總是更快的周期是 E&I 業務,更多地集中在電子業務中。我們在那裡有 8% 的研發支出。它非常非常強大,我們不斷在該領域推出新產品,史蒂夫。但我們真正關注的領域之一——請記住,杜邦的優勢之一是應用工程專業知識。我們與客戶一起生活,我們與他們一起設計和工作。我們真正專注於利用現有杜邦技術的 Laird 平台。

  • So one of the things I was alluding to, we've got a couple of auto customers where Laird was already into an electromagnetic shielding thermal management and they have now been pulling in some DuPont applications and products for wiring protection and all that. So there's a lot of focus there on how can we get the synergies from a revenue standpoint from those. So I'd say that's the biggest area.

    所以我提到的一件事是,我們有幾個汽車客戶,萊爾德已經進入了電磁屏蔽熱管理,他們現在已經引入了一些杜邦應用程序和產品來保護線路等等。因此,人們非常關注我們如何從這些收入的角度獲得協同效應。所以我會說這是最大的領域。

  • But remember, R&D for us is the heart of the company and application engineering is the heart of the company. So it's across the board here. we're very big on intellectual property. When we look to do a bolt-on, I think I mentioned this in my remarks, intellectual property to us is very key. And the ability to have strong application engineering across the board in all our end verticals is very key for us.

    但請記住,研發對我們來說是公司的核心,應用工程是公司的核心。所以這裡是全面的。我們非常重視知識產權。當我們希望進行補強時,我想我在發言中提到了這一點,知識產權對我們來說非常關鍵。在我們所有的終端垂直領域全面擁有強大的應用工程能力對我們來說非常關鍵。

  • Stephen V. Byrne - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Stephen V. Byrne - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • And maybe just one more to drill into your Water business. Do you monitor your customers' water treatment systems to seek ways to lower their energy costs or to upgrade into newer technologies?

    也許還有一個可以深入了解您的水務業務。您是否監控客戶的水處理系統以尋求降低能源成本或升級到新技術的方法?

  • Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

    Lori D. Koch - Executive VP & CFO

  • We do. Yes. We've got a really nice portfolio that we're growing in the lithium battery space that we've mentioned for the Water business. So there's about 30% of water is in the specialty, so kind of outside the Industrial applications. And that's where all of those high-growth opportunities sit. Also obviously, we're well aligned with the UN sustainability goals, and that sits front and center with the Water business as well.

    我們的確是。是的。我們有一個非常好的投資組合,我們正在為水業務提到的鋰電池領域發展。所以大約有 30% 的水在專業領域,所以在工業應用之外。這就是所有這些高增長機會所在的地方。同樣明顯的是,我們與聯合國的可持續發展目標保持一致,這也是水業務的重中之重。

  • Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

    Edward D. Breen - CEO & Executive Chairman

  • And to your point, by the way, one of the big things we work on with our technology is right to the heart of the question you asked, is reducing the energy consumption. So we're working on technologies around that, and that could be cutting-edge for us, give us a competitive advantage.

    順便說一句,就你的觀點而言,我們利用我們的技術所做的一件大事正是你所問問題的核心,那就是降低能源消耗。所以我們正在研究圍繞它的技術,這對我們來說可能是最前沿的,給我們帶來競爭優勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And at this time, I'll turn the call over to Steve -- to Chris Mecray for closing remarks.

    此時,我將把電話轉給史蒂夫——克里斯·梅克雷 (Chris Mecray) 作結束語。

  • Christopher H. Mecray - VP of IR

    Christopher H. Mecray - VP of IR

  • Yes. Just thank you, everyone, for joining our call. And for your reference, a copy of the transcript will be posted on our website. This concludes the call. Have a great day.

    是的。謝謝大家加入我們的電話會議。為了您的參考,成績單的副本將發佈在我們的網站上。通話到此結束。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

    感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連接。