Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Cenovus Energy 召開電話會議討論其強勁的第二季業績。他們強調了所取得的成就,包括實現淨債務目標、向股東返還多餘資金以及專注於成長項目。該公司還討論了安全性、生產水平和煉油性能的改進,重點是提高可靠性和盈利能力。

電話會議期間的討論涉及跨山對阿爾伯塔省正在進行的旨在提高盈利能力的重大項目的影響,併計劃在向股東返還資本的同時保持強勁的財務狀況。也解決了與立法、環境報告和管道容量相關的挑戰。

總體而言,Cenovus Energy 強調了他們致力於提供強勁業績並保持對成長和獲利能力的關注。他們致力於應對挑戰並繼續優先考慮營運的安全和成功。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to Cenovus Energy's second-quarter results. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised this conference call may not be recorded or rebroadcast without the express consent of Cenovus Energy.

    女士們、先生們,美好的一天,感謝你們的支持,歡迎來到 Cenovus Energy 的第二季業績。提醒一下,今天的通話正在錄音。(操作員說明)請注意,未經 Cenovus Energy 明確同意,不得錄製或轉播本次電話會議。

  • I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Patrick Reed, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Read.

    我現在想將電話會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁帕特里克·里德先生。請繼續,里德先生。

  • Patrick Read - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Patrick Read - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cenovus' 2024 second quarter results conference call. On the call this morning, our CEO, Jon McKenzie, will take you through our results. Then we'll open the line for Jon and other members of the Cenovus management team to take your questions.

    謝謝你,接線生。大家早安,歡迎參加 Cenovus 2024 年第二季業績電話會議。在今天早上的電話會議上,我們的執行長 Jon McKenzie 將向您介紹我們的業績。然後我們將為 Jon 和 Cenovus 管理團隊的其他成員開通熱線,回答您的問題。

  • Before getting started, I'll refer you to our advisories located at the end of today's news release. These describe the forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures and oil and gas terms referred to today. They also outline the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion. Additional information is available in Cenovus' annual MD&A and our most recent AIF and Form 40-F. And as a reminder, all figures we referenced on the call today will be in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated. You can view our results at cenovus.com.

    在開始之前,我將向您推薦位於今天新聞稿末尾的建議。這些描述了今天提到的前瞻性資訊、非公認會計原則措施以及石油和天然氣術語。他們也概述了與本次討論相關的風險因素和假設。更多資訊請參閱 Cenovus 的年度 MD&A 以及我們最新的 AIF 和表格 40-F。提醒一下,除非另有說明,我們在今天的電話會議中引用的所有數據均以加幣為單位。您可以在 cenovus.com 查看我們的結果。

  • For the question-and-answer portion of the call, please keep to one question with a maximum of one follow-up. You are welcome to rejoin the queue for any other follow-up questions you may have. We also ask that you hold off on any detailed modeling questions. You can follow up on those directly with our Investor Relations team after the call.

    對於通話的問答部分,請只提出一個問題,最多進行一次跟進。歡迎您重新加入隊列,解答您可能遇到的任何其他後續問題。我們也要求您不要提出任何詳細的建模問題。您可以在電話會議後直接與我們的投資者關係團隊跟進。

  • I will now turn the call over to Jon. Jon, please go ahead.

    我現在將把電話轉給喬恩。喬恩,請繼續。

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Great and thank you Patrick. Good morning, everybody. I'm going to start this call by highlighting some safety achievements in our second quarter. We completed the largest turnaround in the history of the Lloydminster Upgrader. The turnaround was completed with approximately 1-million-man hours and peak mobilized workforce of about 3,200 contractors. This was no small feat.

    太棒了,謝謝帕特里克。大家早安。我將透過強調第二季的一些安全成就來開始這次電話會議。我們完成了勞埃德明斯特升級計畫史上最大的轉變。此次週轉工作耗時約 100 萬工時,高峰期動員了約 3,200 名承包商。這可不是一件小事。

  • And what I'm most impressed about was our safety performance. Our planned 49-day turnaround was done with no incidents, and I want to acknowledge all of our staff and contractors for their incredible commitment to the safety and success of this turnaround.

    最讓我印象深刻的是我們的安全表現。我們計劃的 49 天週轉工作順利完成,沒有發生任何事故,我要感謝我們所有的員工和承包商,他們對本次週轉工作的安全和成功做出了令人難以置信的承諾。

  • We've also seen a number of wildfires recently across Northern Alberta and in some cases, in close to proximity to our oil sand sites. We are prioritizing the safety of people working on the site and are closely monitoring the evolving situations. While we had limited our staff at Sunrise asset for a short period of time, with the recent rainfall and firefighting efforts, we're in a better place. We have now returned all our staff to Sunrise site and all of our assets continue to operate at normal rates.

    最近,我們也在艾伯塔省北部地區發生了多起野火,有時還發生在我們油砂場地附近。我們優先考慮現場工作人員的安全,並密切關注事態的發展。雖然我們在短時間內限制了 Sunrise 資產的員工數量,但隨著最近的降雨和消防工作,我們的情況有所改善。我們現在已將所有員工返回 Sunrise 站點,我們的所有資產繼續以正常速度運作。

  • So today marks a significant milestone for Cenovus and our shareholders. In the month of July, we achieved our net debt target of $4 billion, and we are now moving to returning 100% of excess free funds flow to shareholders as per our framework. I'm very proud that we'll be delivering a substantial increase in shareholder returns going forward.

    因此,今天對於 Cenovus 和我們的股東來說是一個重要的里程碑。7 月份,我們實現了 40 億美元的淨債務目標,現在我們正按照我們的框架,將 100% 的超額自由資金流返還給股東。我感到非常自豪的是,我們將在未來實現股東回報的大幅增加。

  • And while this company has been on a deleveraging journey for a number of years, achieving the target is a direct result of our financial discipline and resilience. It really sets the stage for continued growth in our shareholder returns over time.

    儘管該公司多年來一直在進行去槓桿化之旅,但實現這一目標是我們財務紀律和韌性的直接結果。這確實為我們的股東回報隨著時間的推移持續成長奠定了基礎。

  • Our second quarter results are underpinned by the strength of our operating performance and continued focus on controlling costs and our ability to deliver on our plans and drive value for shareholders. Our upstream business continued to deliver very strong operating results with production of over 800,000 BOE per day, in line with the prior quarter.

    我們第二季的業績得益於我們強勁的經營業績、對控製成本的持續關注以及我們實現計劃和為股東創造價值的能力。我們的上游業務持續交付非常強勁的經營業績,每日產量超過 80 萬桶油當量,與上一季持平。

  • Production for the first half of 2024 continues to trend at the higher end of our guidance range. In particular, the operating performance at our oil sands assets continued to be exceptional in the second quarter. This was achieved while completing some initial work scope on the Christina Lake turnaround and taking a short outage at Sunrise in May for well pad tie-ins.

    2024 年上半年的產量持續保持在我們指引範圍的高端。特別是,我們的油砂資產第二季度的營運表現持續表現出色。這是在完成克里斯蒂娜湖週轉的一些初步工作範圍並在 5 月日出時短暫停電以進行井場連接時實現的。

  • In the second quarter, oil sands produced around 610,000 barrels a day and generated an operating margin of approximately $2.7 billion, an increase of over $500 million from the prior quarter. Looking to the third quarter, we're ready to execute the turnover of Christina Lake beginning in September.

    第二季度,油砂產量約為每天 61 萬桶,營業利潤約 27 億美元,比上一季增加了 5 億多美元。展望第三季度,我們已準備好從 9 月開始執行 Christina Lake 的營業額。

  • The turnaround is anticipated to reduce third quarter production by about 45,000 barrels a day. We also remain on track with our execution of our oil sands growth projects. This includes the Narrows Lake tie-back to Christina Lake, which continues to track on schedule.

    此次調整預計將使第三季產量減少約 45,000 桶/日。我們也繼續執行油砂開發項目。其中包括 Narrows Lake 與 Christina Lake 的回接,該線路繼續按計劃運行。

  • The pipeline is now 88% constructed with the first segment hydro-tested and mechanical completion expected to be finished by the end of the year. We've also completed the drilling of the first two well pads at Narrows Lake resource area, and we're on schedule to deliver first oil in mid-2025.

    該管道現已完成 88%,第一段已進行水壓測試,機械完工預計將於今年底完成。我們也完成了 Narrows Lake 資源區前兩個井場的鑽探,並按計劃於 2025 年中期交付第一批石油。

  • In addition, the Foster Creek Optimization Project remains on schedule for our targeted 2026 start-up, with most modules or major pieces of equipment in place and piping installation well underway. At Sunrise, the first of four new well packages is nearly complete. Within the first well package, we've ramped up one well pad, and we're expecting to bring on two new well pads later this year in the fourth and early 2025. The remaining three well packages continue to progress as per schedule.

    此外,Foster Creek 優化專案仍按計畫於 2026 年啟動,大多數模組或主要設備已就位,管道安裝正在進行中。在Sunrise,四個新井組中的第一個已接近完成。在第一個油井包中,我們增加了一個井場,預計今年稍後、第四年和 2025 年初將增加兩個新的井場。其餘三口井包繼續按計畫進行。

  • In our conventional and gas business, production volumes were around 123,000 BOE per day, an increase of 2,400 BOE per day relative to the prior quarter. Our conventional business also reduced per barrel operating costs, primarily as a result of focused efforts to improve the cost efficiency of the business.

    在我們的常規和天然氣業務中,產量約為每天 123,000 桶油當量,較上一季每天增加 2,400 桶油當量。我們的傳統業務也降低了每桶營運成本,這主要是由於集中精力提高業務成本效率。

  • In our offshore business segment, production was approximately 66,000 BOE per day, an increase of 1,300 BOE per day compared with the prior quarter. In Asia, the operating margin was $264 million, and we continue to see the benefit from strong regional gas demand.

    海工業務部門的產量約為每天 66,000 桶油當量,較上季增加 1,300 桶油當量/天。在亞洲,營業利潤為 2.64 億美元,我們繼續看到強勁的區域天然氣需求帶來的好處。

  • In the Atlantic region, production from the non-operated Terra Nova asset increased by about 1,200 barrels per day relative to the prior quarter, and the operator continues to work towards ramping up towards full rates. Now the SeaRose FPSO is currently a dry dock for its regulatory maintenance. This work is progressing well, and we are fast approaching project completion.

    在大西洋地區,非營運的 Terra Nova 資產的產量較上一季每天增加約 1,200 桶,且營運商繼續努力提高全產量。現在,SeaRose FPSO 正在乾船塢進行監管維護。這項工作進展順利,我們正在快速接近專案完成。

  • We expect the SeaRose to return to the field, late in the third quarter of this year and resume production in the fourth quarter. We also achieved a significant milestone for the West White Rose project in the second quarter, with the concrete gravity structure reaching its final height and structural completion of the topsides. The West White Rose project is now 80% complete and remains on track for first oil in 2026.

    我們預計 SeaRose 將在今年第三季末返回現場,並在第四季恢復生產。我們也在第二季度實現了西白玫瑰計畫的一個重要里程碑,混凝土重力結構達到了最終高度,上部結構也完成了。West White Rose 計畫現已完成 80%,並預計在 2026 年首次產出石油。

  • With our upstream businesses continuing to produce at the higher end of our guidance range, we've updated our full year upstream production guidance. We've increased the lower end of the range by 15,000 BOE per day for an overall upstream guidance range of 785,000 to 810,000 BOE per day.

    隨著我們的上游業務繼續在指導範圍的高端進行生產,我們更新了全年上游生產指導。我們已將該範圍的下限提高了 15,000 桶油當量/天,總體上游指導範圍為每天 785,000 至 810,000 桶油當量。

  • I'm very pleased with the performance we've seen year-to-date and remain confident in executing the work that remains ahead of us for 2024. We expect to be exiting this year well above 800,000 BOE per day following the Christina Lake turnaround.

    我對今年迄今為止的表現感到非常滿意,並對執行 2024 年的工作充滿信心。克里斯蒂娜湖 (Christina Lake) 恢復正常後,我們預計今年的退出量將遠高於每天 80 萬桶油當量。

  • In addition to increasing our production guidance for the year, we've also reduced our operating cost guidance in several of our business segments, based on year-to-date performance and our continued focus on cost leadership across this company. The guidance for capital spend of $4.5 billion to $5 billion remains unchanged, with planned spend for our growth and optimization projects ramping up slightly in the second half of the year.

    除了提高今年的生產指導外,我們還根據今年迄今為止的業績以及我們對整個公司成本領先地位的持續關注,降低了幾個業務部門的營運成本指導。45 億至 50 億美元的資本支出指引保持不變,下半年成長和優化專案的計畫支出略有增加。

  • Now moving to our downstream segment. In the second quarter, Canadian refining results were impacted by the planned turnaround at the Lloydminster Upgrader. As I mentioned earlier, safety and operational execution of the turnaround was outstanding amidst some of the weather-related delays that impacted productivity and schedule by about a week and elevated the overall cost.

    現在轉向我們的下游部分。第二季度,加拿大煉油業績受到勞埃德明斯特升級廠計畫檢修的影響。正如我之前提到的,在一些與天氣相關的延誤中,週轉的安全性和營運執行情況非常出色,這些延誤影響了生產力和進度約一周,並提高了總體成本。

  • The Upgrader since completed its ramp-up to normal rates and is operating steadily. In addition to regulatory and maintenance work undertaken during the turnaround, we also implemented seven large projects at around $50 million of capital spend that enable us to further enhance reliability at the asset, including advancing automation of our systems.

    自此,Upgrader 完成了正常費率的提升,並且正在穩定運作。除了在週轉期間進行的監管和維護工作外,我們還實施了七個大型項目,資本支出約為 5000 萬美元,使我們能夠進一步提高資產的可靠性,包括推進系統的自動化。

  • In the US refining segment, combined crude utilization across the assets was about 93% in the second quarter. We have made some progress on reliability and there is more work to do. We are continuing to focus on the reliability, cost structure and profitability of the downstream business going forward.

    在美國煉油領域,第二季各資產的原油綜合利用率約為 93%。我們在可靠性方面取得了一些進展,但還有更多工作要做。未來我們將持續關注下游業務的可靠性、成本結構和獲利能力。

  • In our US refining businesses, the narrower light-heavy differential combined with some planned and unplanned outages, impacted operating margin in the quarter. The continued focus on driving value in our downstream business has led the company to optimize planned turnaround activity in the second half of the year. During the Lima turnaround this fall, we'll be leveraging the integration of Lima and Toledo to minimize crude unit downtime. Additionally, some planned maintenance has been deferred to 2025.

    在我們的美國煉油業務中,輕重差異收窄,加上一些計畫內和計畫外的停運,影響了本季的營運利潤。持續專注於推動下游業務價值,促使公司優化了下半年計畫的周轉活動。在今年秋天的利馬檢修期間,我們將利用利馬和托萊多的整合來最大限度地減少原油裝置的停機時間。此外,一些計劃維護已推遲至 2025 年。

  • Now as a result of the performance in the US Refining business year-to-date and the optimization of the turnaround activity going forward, we've updated our full year downstream throughput guidance to 640,000 to 670,000 barrels a day. This is an increase of about 10,000 barrels a day to the lower end of the range. Now to our corporate and financial performance.

    現在,由於美國煉油業務今年迄今的表現以及未來週轉活動的優化,我們已將全年下游吞吐量指導更新為每天 640,000 至 670,000 桶。這比該範圍的下限每天增加約 10,000 桶。現在談談我們的公司和財務表現。

  • Cenovus generated $2.9 billion of operating margin in the second quarter, approximately $2.4 billion of adjusted funds flow and $1.2 billion of free funds flow, which reflects higher benchmark crude oil prices and a narrowing light-heavy differential. Through our base dividend, share buyback program and variable dividend, we paid over $1 billion in shareholder returns.

    Cenovus 第二季營業利潤率為 29 億美元,調整後資金流量約為 24 億美元,自由資金流量為 12 億美元,這反映了基準原油價格上漲和輕重差異縮小。透過我們的基本股息、股票回購計劃和可變股息,我們支付了超過 10 億美元的股東回報。

  • And at the end of the second quarter, net debt was approximately $4.26 billion, and as I mentioned, in the month of July, we achieved our $4 billion net debt target. This is a significant milestone, and overall, this has been another strong quarter for the company. We have a clear view of the work in front of us, and we're looking forward to delivering on the growth projects we've set out to accomplish and increase production guidance for the 2024 that we shared with you today.

    第二季末,淨債務約為 42.6 億美元,正如我所提到的,在 7 月份,我們實現了 40 億美元的淨債務目標。這是一個重要的里程碑,總體而言,這是該公司又一個強勁的季度。我們對擺在我們面前的工作有清晰的認識,我們期待著實現我們已設定的成長項目,並增加我們今天與您分享的 2024 年生產指導。

  • Now with that, we're happy to take your questions.

    現在,我們很高興回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

    尼爾梅塔,高盛。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you so much and congratulations on achieving the net debt target here in July, Jon and team. The first question is actually around West White Rose. It's an unbelievably important project as we think about the free cash flow progression. So can you just talk about what are the gating items here and as we move towards top side in 2025.

    是的,非常感謝並祝賀喬恩和團隊在 7 月實現了淨債務目標。第一個問題其實是圍繞著西白玫瑰的。當我們考慮自由現金流的進度時,這是一個非常重要的項目。那麼您能否談談這裡的限制項目以及我們在 2025 年邁向頂峰的過程。

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. So maybe I'll start and then I'll let Keith chime in on this. You're absolutely right. Hitting the $4 billion net debt target has been something this organization has been really focused on for a number of years, and it's a great day for this company and a great day for our shareholders. I think as it relates to West White Rose, we mentioned that we're about 80% complete.

    當然。所以也許我會開始,然後讓基斯插話。你是絕對正確的。實現 40 億美元的淨債務目標一直是該組織多年來真正關注的事情,這對這家公司來說是偉大的一天,對我們的股東來說也是偉大的一天。我認為與西白玫瑰相關的是,我們提到我們已經完成了 80% 左右。

  • We've really largely completed the work on the gravity-based structure in the top sides, and we now move really into the marine-based part of the project. But maybe, Keith, you can talk a little bit more detail about where we are with that project.

    我們已經基本上完成了頂部基於重力的結構的工作,現在我們真正進入該項目的基於海洋的部分。但基思,也許你可以更詳細地談談我們在該專案上的進展。

  • Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

    Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes. Thanks a lot, Neil. The way you should think about the project that's broken down into really four components. One is the SeaRose life extension project. So the SeaRose is over in dry dock, approaching completion of that maintenance activity and will be coming back on station at the back end of the third quarter to restart production early in the fourth quarter. So that's progressing well. That allows us to extend the life of the asset out into the late 2030s. On the West White Rose project per se, we're actually able to visit the gravity base structure last week.

    是的。非常感謝,尼爾。您應該考慮將項目分為四個部分的方式。一是SeaRose延壽計畫。因此,SeaRose 已在幹船塢結束,即將完成維護活動,並將在第三季末返回現場,並在第四季初重新開始生產。所以進展順利。這使我們能夠將資產的使用壽命延長至 2030 年代後期。就西白玫瑰計畫本身而言,我們上週實際上能夠參觀重力基礎結構。

  • And I'd like to say that things are extremely progressing well, nearing as Jon alluded to, mechanical completion there. They're getting ready to flood the graving dock, which will allow us to tow the gravity-based structure out and set it up with the top sides. Down in Ingleside, similar story. The topsides are approaching mechanical completion into commissioning already, and it will be ready to tow out in the second quarter of 2025.

    我想說,事情進展得非常順利,正如喬恩所提到的那樣,已經接近機械完成。他們正準備淹沒雕刻碼頭,這將使我們能夠將基於重力的結構拖出來並將其安裝到頂部。在英格爾賽德,也有類似的故事。上部結構已接近機械完工並投入調試,並將於 2025 年第二季準備拖出。

  • A lot of marine work is now progressing, which will allow us then to connect the West White Rose project to the SeaRose. All that activity is on track for summer 2025. And then we'll be able to commence drilling at the back end of 2025 and start seeing production and the ramp-up in production in 2026 and 2027. So things, Neil, are progressing really well. Still a bit of scope ahead of us. We're spending about $700 million to $800 million this year and $700 million to $800 million next year to finish that project. And then as you alluded to, go into the to the cash flow stage of receiving cash as we go into production in 2026.

    許多海洋工作正在進行中,這將使我們能夠將西白玫瑰計畫連接到海玫瑰號。所有這些活動都將在 2025 年夏季進行。然後我們將能夠在 2025 年底開始鑽探,並在 2026 年和 2027 年開始看到產量和產量的增加。尼爾,事情進展得非常順利。我們還有一些空間。我們今年將花費約 7 億至 8 億美元,明年將花費 7 億至 8 億美元來完成該項目。然後,正如您所提到的,當我們在 2026 年投入生產時,進入接收現金的現金流階段。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Yes, that's the good stuff. Yes. All right. So, thank you. And then the follow-up is just on Canadian refining performance in the quarter. US manufacturing inflected operationally, but it was a little bit of a tougher quarter in Canadian refinery. Can you remind us the environment up there? And how much of that was one-time in nature? And how do you see that part of the business progressing from here?

    是的,這就是好東西。是的。好的。所以,謝謝你。後續關注的只是加拿大煉油廠在本季的表現。美國製造業的營運情況發生了變化,但加拿大煉油廠的季度情況稍顯艱難。你能提醒我們一下那裡的環境嗎?其中有多少是一次性的?您如何看待這部分業務的進展?

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So in Canadian manufacturing, we had the Upgrader down first week in May for its 49-day turnaround. That extended into the first week of July. So the assets or the major asset in Canadian refining wasn't operating. It was down for turnaround during the quarter. Also, remember that we expense all of our turnaround costs.

    是的。因此,在加拿大製造業中,我們在 5 月的第一周關閉了 Upgrader,進行了 49 天的周轉。這種情況一直持續到七月的第一週。因此,加拿大煉油廠的資產或主要資產沒有運作。本季轉虧為盈。另外,請記住,我們支出了所有周轉成本。

  • And I think we expensed about $211 million, $220 million during the quarter. So, all of that is one-time. We have a turnaround schedule with that Upgrader once every four years. This was, as I mentioned, the largest that we had done. So it's more of a reflection of the turnaround than it is the operating performance of the Canadian Downstream.

    我認為本季我們的支出約為 2.11 億美元、2.2 億美元。所以,這一切都是一次性的。我們每四年與該升級者制定一次週轉計劃。正如我所提到的,這是我們所做的最大的一次。因此,這更反映了加拿大下游業務的扭虧為盈,而不是經營業績。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Thanks, Jon.

    謝謝,喬恩。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greg Pardy, RBC.

    格雷格·帕迪,加拿大皇家銀行。

  • Greg Pardy - Analyst

    Greg Pardy - Analyst

  • Yes, thanks. Good morning. Thanks. Thanks, Jon for the detailed rundown as always. Got a couple of questions. But the first one is maybe just a little more at the macro level. I mean, you're a large shipper on Trans Mountain. I'm interested in just your perspective on the performance of that. How you're thinking about marketing, but also related to this is, how should we perhaps see the path of WCS spreads over the next few months?

    是的,謝謝。早安.謝謝。謝謝喬恩一如既往的詳細概述。有幾個問題。但第一個可能只是宏觀層面上的多一點。我的意思是,你們是跨山的大型托運人。我只對你對此表現的看法感興趣。您如何看待行銷,但也與此相關的是,我們應該如何看待 WCS 在未來幾個月的傳播路徑?

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • I'll tell you, Greg, I could answer that question, but Geoff Murray lives and breathes that every day. So maybe I'll just turn it over to Geoff to answer.

    我告訴你,格雷格,我可以回答這個問題,但傑夫·莫瑞每天都活在這個問題裡。所以也許我會把它交給傑夫回答。

  • Greg Pardy - Analyst

    Greg Pardy - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Geoff Murray - Executive Vice President - Commercial

    Geoff Murray - Executive Vice President - Commercial

  • Thanks, Greg. I mean I think the important thing around Trans Mountain is we've seen the facility come on. It's up, it's operating and it's operating well. We've then provided relatively exciting access to the globe and that's had its impact back into Alberta. And we've seen the heavy differential in Alberta Titan, if you compare Q1 to Q2, that's in the order of USD6 better.

    謝謝,格雷格。我的意思是,我認為跨山的重要事情是我們已經看到該設施投入使用。它已經啟動,正在運行,並且運行良好。然後,我們提供了相對令人興奮的通往全球的通道,這對艾伯塔省產生了影響。我們已經看到 Alberta Titan 的巨大差異,如果將第一季和第二季進行比較,大約是 6 美元。

  • We can't obviously attribute all of that to any one thing because markets are a little more exciting and interesting than that. However, I would say, we've seen Trans Mountain have the impact that when we took the contract, we were looking for it to deliver. As of late, perhaps in months after Q2 has ended, we've seen heavy differential in Alberta moved out a little bit wider by $1 or $2.

    我們顯然不能將所有這些歸因於任何一件事,因為市場比這更令人興奮和有趣。然而,我想說,我們已經看到跨山的影響力,當我們簽訂合約時,我們正在尋求它交付。截至最近,也許在第二季結束後的幾個月內,我們已經看到阿爾伯塔省的巨大差異稍微擴大了 1 或 2 美元。

  • And many questions have come our way regarding what's going on with Trans Mountain on why is that happening. And I would direct you to look at the US Gulf Coast, which really is where prices are originally set. And we've seen that to be a little bit wider by $1 or $2, which we've attributed to refinery outages in the area as well as in the Mid-Continent. Over the next little while, I would say we expect Trans Mountain to continue to have its intended impact in Alberta and differentials to be as narrow as it's been in a long time.

    我們對跨山發生的事情以及為什麼會發生這樣的事情提出了很多疑問。我會引導您看看美國墨西哥灣沿岸,這確實是最初設定價格的地方。我們發現價格上漲了 1 美元或 2 美元,我們將此歸因於該地區以及中大陸的煉油廠停駛。在接下來的一段時間內,我想說,我們預計跨山將繼續對艾伯塔省產生預期的影響,並且差異將像很長一段時間以來一樣縮小。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Dennis Fong, CIBC World Markets.

    Dennis Fong,CIBC 全球市場。

  • Dennis Fong - Analyst

    Dennis Fong - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. The first one, and I guess also, congratulations on achieving the $4 billion net debt floor. My first question, there have been some news reports on some operational hiccups with some of your US refineries namely Lima and Toledo.

    你好。早上好,感謝您回答我的問題。第一個,我猜也是,恭喜您實現了 40 億美元的淨債務下限。我的第一個問題,有一些新聞報導,美國的一些煉油廠,即利馬和托萊多,出現了一些營運問題。

  • And I also appreciate the comments that you made in the prepared remarks around progress being made around improving profitability of the operations. My question here is, can you comment on the current operations, all of the US refineries as well as discuss some of the projects that are ongoing? And when you think some of these best practices improving margins and so forth can potentially bear fruit.

    我也感謝您在準備好的發言中就提高營運獲利能力所取得的進展發表的評論。我的問題是,您能否對美國所有煉油廠的當前營運發表評論,並討論一些正在進行的項目?當您認為其中一些提高利潤等的最佳實踐可能會取得成果時。

  • Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

    Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

  • Hi, Dennis. It's Keith. Thanks for the question. Maybe I'll get to your specific question in a minute, but I just want to reflect on a little bit of the progress that is being made. So in 2023 was a lot of work on restarting the superior refinery and the Toledo refinery and driving improvement across the fleet to improve crude utilizations. We're starting to see some of that bear fruit as we head into 2024 with higher utilizations.

    嗨,丹尼斯。是基思。謝謝你的提問。也許我會在一分鐘內回答你的具體問題,但我只想反思一下正在取得的進展。因此,到 2023 年,需要進行大量工作來重啟高級煉油廠和托萊多煉油廠,並推動整個船隊的改進,以提高原油利用率。隨著 2024 年利用率的提高,我們開始看到其中一些成果取得成果。

  • But by no means are we done. There's still lots of work we have available to us to improve reliability, to improve profitability and to drive down our costs. And interestingly, sometimes it takes a turnaround to be able to drive those reliability improvements. So we do have the Lima turnaround come up here in the fall, which will allow us to advance some additional reliability improvement as we progress down this journey.

    但我們的工作還沒結束。我們還有很多工作要做,可以提高可靠性、提高獲利能力並降低成本。有趣的是,有時需要扭轉局面才能推動可靠性的提升。因此,我們確實在秋季實現了利馬的周轉,這將使我們能夠在這一過程中推進一些額外的可靠性改進。

  • Specifically, today on Toledo and Lima, both went through a couple of process upsets which brought the refineries down into a controlled manner. That some work is progressing as we speak on maintenance. That should be wrapping up in the next day or two, and we'll be progressing with restarts of both those refineries. And then maybe to the back end of your question, just specifically, we are seeing some of those reliability initiatives bear fruit.

    具體來說,今天在托萊多和利馬,兩者都經歷了幾次流程混亂,導致煉油廠陷入受控狀態。當我們談論維護時,一些工作正在取得進展。這應該會在接下來的一兩天內結束,我們將在重啟這兩家煉油廠方面取得進展。然後也許到你問題的後端,具體來說,我們看到其中一些可靠性舉措取得了成果。

  • Jon just talked about the Lloyd Upgrader turnaround. That's another opportunity for us to go in there and reduce the bad actors that we had at the Upgrader to help drive that longer-term reliability improvement that we expect. So there's lots of work underway, but by no means are we declaring victory. There's still room to improve and room to go on all aspects, reliability, profitability and our operating costs.

    喬恩剛剛談到了 Lloyd Upgrader 的轉變。這是我們進入那裡並減少升級者中不良行為者的另一個機會,以幫助推動我們期望的長期可靠性改進。因此,還有很多工作正在進行,但我們絕不是宣布勝利。各方面、可靠性、獲利能力和我們的營運成本仍然有改進的空間和繼續的空間。

  • Dennis Fong - Analyst

    Dennis Fong - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks. I appreciate that color there, Keith. Shifting gears for my second question. On your thermal heavy oil assets have frankly not only remained resilient, but also shown growth over the past few years. Can you talk towards the work that you've been focused on there to help bolster production, without any incremental steam generation capacity? And also, what do you view as the inventory or the ability to maintain that either flat or even higher over the next few years? Thanks.

    偉大的。謝謝。我很欣賞那裡的顏色,基斯。換個話題來回答我的第二個問題。坦白說,你們的熱力重油資產不僅保持了彈性,而且在過去幾年中還顯示出成長。您能談談您一直致力於在不增加蒸汽發電能力的情況下提高產量的工作嗎?另外,您認為未來幾年庫存或保持不變甚至更高的能力如何?謝謝。

  • Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

    Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Dennis. And yes, we're really happy with the progress we're making, obviously, in our oil sands business and the resiliency of it and the continuous improvement demonstrated across that business. Some things I would point to, obviously, after taking over the Lloyd thermal assets and the Sunrise assets, we are able to deploy some of the Cenovus technology into those assets and immediately improve production.

    是的。謝謝,丹尼斯。是的,我們對油砂業務所取得的進展及其彈性以及整個業務所表現出的持續改進感到非常滿意。我想指出的一些事情,顯然,在接管 Lloyd 熱資產和 Sunrise 資產後,我們能夠將一些 Cenovus 技術部署到這些資產中並立即提高產量。

  • We do execute resource delineation and happy to report that we're finding additional resource to maintain kind of those levels of production out into the future. So lots of activity going on, on assessing where it is and making sure that we can continue to produce.

    我們確實執行了資源劃分,並很高興地報告說,我們正在尋找額外的資源來維持未來的生產水準。很多活動正在進行,評估它的位置並確保我們可以繼續生產。

  • I think the other thing is obviously, our NCG, or non-compressible gas, into the reservoir and timing of that. It's really, for us, a steam oil ratio game. So the more we can drive down our steam-oil ratio, the more production we can achieve. And you're seeing some of those improvements across the various assets.

    我認為另一件事顯然是我們的 NCG(不可壓縮氣體)進入儲層及其時機。對我們來說,這確實是一個蒸汽油比例遊戲。因此,我們越能降低汽油比,就能實現更高的產量。您會看到各種資產的一些改進。

  • And then maybe I'd point to Sunrise. When we took over Sunrise, it hadn't had a pad drilled and tied-in since kind of the early 2020s. We've since added three pads. They're now in the progress of either operating or ramping up. Obviously, we're deploying some of the new technologies in those pads.

    然後也許我會指出日出。當我們接管 Sunrise 時,自 2020 年代初以來,它就沒有鑽孔和綁紮墊。此後我們添加了三個墊。他們現在正在運作或擴大規模。顯然,我們正在這些墊中部署一些新技術。

  • But also, we're starting to utilize the spare steam capacity that we had at that asset. So we're pretty excited about the growth profile that we have at Sunrise over the coming couple of years as we continue to add pads and grow. And then maybe I'll just touch on some of the other growth that we have in the oil sands portfolio.

    而且,我們也開始利用該資產的備用蒸汽能力。因此,隨著我們繼續增加焊盤並不斷發展,我們對未來幾年 Sunrise 的成長狀況感到非常興奮。然後也許我會談談我們在油砂投資組合中的其他一些成長。

  • On Narrows, we're approaching mechanical completion at the end of this year, and we will start steaming, the pads are drilled and in place. So we'll be able to progress that steaming in the first half of 2025 to see production coming out of Narrows in 2026 and remind people that that's going to be about 20,000 to 25,000 barrel a day increase.

    在海峽上,我們將在今年年底完成機械完工,我們將開始蒸汽作業,墊板已鑽孔並就位。因此,我們將能夠在 2025 年上半年取得進展,並在 2026 年看到 Narrows 的產量,並提醒人們,每天的產量將增加約 20,000 至 25,000 桶。

  • And then on Foster Creek, we have an optimization project underway, which is essentially a steam addition project. That project is progressing well. On track for completion at the back end of 2025, early 2026, which will then allow us to steam new pads and bring on an additional 30,000 barrels a day at Foster. So lots of exciting things happening across the oil sands, and it just demonstrates the continuous improvement that's happening everyday in that business to make it better.

    然後在福斯特溪,我們正在進行一個優化項目,這本質上是一個蒸汽添加項目。該專案進展順利。預計將於 2025 年底、2026 年初完工,屆時我們將能夠生產新的墊片,並在福斯特每天增加 30,000 桶石油。油砂領域發生了許多令人興奮的事情,證明了該行業每天都在不斷改進,以使其變得更好。

  • Dennis Fong - Analyst

    Dennis Fong - Analyst

  • Great. Really appreciate all that context there, Keith. I can turn it back now.

    偉大的。真的很欣賞那裡的所有背景,基斯。我現在可以把它轉回來。

  • Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

    Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

  • Great. Thanks, Dennis.

    偉大的。謝謝,丹尼斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Menno Hulshof, TD Cowen.

    門諾‧胡爾斯霍夫 (Menno Hulshof),TD‧考恩 (TD Cowen)。

  • Menno Hulshof - Analyst

    Menno Hulshof - Analyst

  • Thanks and good morning everyone. I'll start with a question on the positive OpEx guidance revisions for the oil sands and Asia Pac in particular. My understanding is that some of the oil sands improvement is probably lower fuel cost and maybe even slightly higher volumes. But beyond that, can you just elaborate on what's driving those improvements?

    謝謝大家,早安。我將首先提出一個關於油砂和亞太地區積極的營運支出指導修訂的問題。我的理解是,油砂的一些改進可能是燃料成本降低,甚至產量可能略有增加。但除此之外,您能否詳細說明是什麼推動了這些改進?

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think, Dennis, you hit on the two really big things in that. We're working on both the numerator and the denominator of that ratio. So Keith had kind of outlined that we are seeing better production right across the portfolio than we would have had in our internal budgets, and a lot of that is related to the activities that we're taking on with the redevs and redrills, and seeing the productivity from non-condensable gas and the like.

    是的。我認為,丹尼斯,你在其中發現了兩件非常重要的事情。我們正在研究該比率的分子和分母。因此基斯概述了我們在整個投資組合中看到的生產比我們在內部預算中的生產要好,其中許多與我們正在進行的重新開發和重新鑽探活動有關,並且看到來自不凝性氣體等的生產率。

  • So first and foremost, I guess, it's a production story. Secondly, we are seeing improvements in our cost per energy and our use of energy. Those continue to be areas of focus for us. So managing that cost and obviously a lot of that is commodity price-driven, but also managing energy use is something that we're constantly looking at.

    所以我想,首先也是最重要的是,這是一個製作故事。其次,我們看到單位能源成本和能源使用有所改善。這些仍然是我們關注的領域。因此,管理成本,顯然其中很大一部分是由商品價格驅動的,而且管理能源使用也是我們不斷關注的問題。

  • Things like chemicals, people and those kind of things that make up operating costs or other areas that we are constantly managing. But it gets back to what Keith talked about, is just having that mindset of continuous improvement and being dogged on, going after these things on a day-to-day basis. So that's what we're seeing really right across the portfolio and seeing some success not just in the oil sands, but also in the deep basin and our conventional assets and in refining as well.

    化學品、人員等構成營運成本或我們不斷管理的其他領域的事物。但這又回到了基斯所說的,就是要有持續改進的心態,堅持不懈,每天追求這些事情。這就是我們在整個投資組合中真正看到的情況,不僅在油砂領域,而且在深盆地和我們的常規資產以及煉油領域也取得了一些成功。

  • Menno Hulshof - Analyst

    Menno Hulshof - Analyst

  • Thanks for that Jon. And then my second question is on the upcoming Lima turnaround. You mentioned that it's been optimized and you plan to leverage the expanded refinery network. Can you maybe just elaborate on what's getting done there? And then the follow-on to that is somewhat related. What was the rationale for pushing out some of the downstream turnaround work to 2025? Thank you.

    謝謝你的喬恩。我的第二個問題是關於即將到來的利馬轉變。您提到它已經過優化,並且您計劃利用擴大的煉油廠網路。能否詳細說明一下那裡做了什麼?然後後續的內容就有些相關了。將部分下游檢修工作延後到 2025 年的理由是什麼?謝謝。

  • Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

    Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

  • Hi, Menno, it's Keith. Since we've taken over Toledo and operate Toledo, we're continuously looking for optimizations between Lima and Toledo. And the team came up with a really unique way to continue running Lima through the turnaround and using some of the facilities at Toledo to process kind of the intermediate barrels that would have been put in the storage or would it drove us to reduce rate at Lima.

    嗨,門諾,我是基斯。自從我們接管托萊多並經營托萊多以來,我們一直在尋找利馬和托萊多之間的優化。團隊想出了一種非常獨特的方法來繼續運行利馬,完成周轉,並使用托萊多的一些設施來處理本來可以放入倉庫的中間桶,或者它會促使我們降低利馬的利率。

  • So it's a really unique optimization that's happening and it's enabled by the fact that we now own and operate both refineries and that there's interconnecting plate between the refineries. So that will allow us to push out that turnaround -- or sorry, to optimize that turnaround.

    因此,這是一個非常獨特的優化正在發生,它是由我們現在擁有並經營兩家煉油廠以及煉油廠之間有互連板這一事實實現的。因此,這將使我們能夠推遲這一轉變——或者抱歉,優化這一轉變。

  • On the delayed turnaround, we were able to do some maintenance and inspection activity that allowed us to understand that the turnaround that we had planned at one of our joint venture operations was enabled to be pushed out. So we're seeing that push out into the 2025 timeframe. So all in all, that's the optimization that's happening in the US downstream and why we're able to raise the bottom end of our guidance on throughput for the year.

    在延遲的周轉期間,我們能夠進行一些維護和檢查活動,這使我們能夠了解到,我們在一家合資企業中計劃的周轉計劃被推遲了。所以我們看到這段時間會延到 2025 年。總而言之,這就是美國下游正在發生的最佳化,也是我們能夠提高今年吞吐量指引下限的原因。

  • Menno Hulshof - Analyst

    Menno Hulshof - Analyst

  • Appreciate the thoughts, Keith, I'll turn it back.

    欣賞這個想法,基思,我會扭轉它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • John Royall, JPMorgan.

    約翰‧羅亞爾,摩根大通。

  • John Royall - Analyst

    John Royall - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So great to hear that you hit the 100% here with returns of capital. Can you just talk a little bit about the mechanical approach to the buyback from here? Will you forecast the full year cash flows and try to get a more ratable approach and kind of correct as you? Or should we expect it to be a little bit more variable quarter-to-quarter depending on the actual cash flow in that quarter?

    嗨,早安。感謝您提出我的問題。很高興聽到您的資本回報率達到了 100%。您能在這裡簡單談談回購的機械方法嗎?您會預測全年現金流並嘗試採用更可評估的方法並且像您一樣正確嗎?或者我們應該根據該季度的實際現金流量預計每個季度的變化會更大一些?

  • Kam Sandhar - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    Kam Sandhar - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Good morning, John. It's Kam. A couple of things I would highlight there. I think number one, we've obviously been on this net debt journey reduction for quite a while, and we're there now. So I think one of the first things that's really important is that we want to make sure we stay as close to that $4 billion as possible as we go forward, and looking at how we return cash to shareholders. So that's the first thing you should think about.

    早安,約翰。是卡姆。我想在此強調幾件事。我認為第一,我們顯然已經踏上淨債務削減之旅相當長一段時間了,而且我們現在已經做到了。因此,我認為真正重要的第一件事是,我們希望確保在前進的過程中盡可能接近 40 億美元,並考慮如何向股東返還現金。所以這是你應該考慮的第一件事。

  • Secondly, I would say, clearly, now that the debt reduction is behind us, there will be no more cash directed towards further deleveraging, and so all of our cash will go towards returning cash back to shareholders, most likely in the form of buybacks. I think given where the share price is today, and what we see as intrinsic value, that is what people should expect, that 100% of that excess free cash flow will probably be returned in the form of share repurchases.

    其次,我要明確地說,既然債務削減已經過去,就不會再有更多的現金用於進一步去槓桿化,因此我們所有的現金都將用於向股東返還現金,很可能以回購的形式。我認為考慮到目前的股價,以及我們所認為的內在價值,人們應該預期的是,100% 的超額自由現金流可能會以股票回購的形式回饋。

  • In terms of the mechanics month by month, quarter by quarter, I think the thing to watch is we will be making sure that we are allocating as close to 100% as possible. Obviously, things like working capital movements will move our debt around, but that's something we'll be watching month by month. But I think the goal is to stay as close to that 100% as possible while trying to hold the debt at that $4 billion level.

    就逐月、逐季的機製而言,我認為值得關注的是我們將確保我們的分配盡可能接近 100%。顯然,諸如營運資金變動之類的事情會改變我們的債務,但這是我們將逐月觀察的。但我認為目標是盡可能保持接近 100%,同時努力將債務控制在 40 億美元的水平。

  • John Royall - Analyst

    John Royall - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks, Kam. And then my follow-up is a macro-type question that I don't think has been asked yet. Can you talk about the supply-demand fundamentals in refining in the Mid-Con right now? We've had what looked like a tighter market than some other regions in the US that certainly also appears to have been impacted by the unplanned downtime at Joliette? What are your expectations for the Mid-Con market in the second half, particularly with Joliette coming back now?

    偉大的。謝謝,卡姆。然後我的後續問題是一個宏觀問題,我認為還沒有被問過。能談談目前中期煉油的供需基本面嗎?與美國其他一些地區相比,我們的市場看起來更加緊張,這些地區似乎也受到了 Joliette 計劃外停機的影響?您對下半年的中型機市場有何期望,尤其是 Joliette 現在回歸?

  • Geoff Murray - Executive Vice President - Commercial

    Geoff Murray - Executive Vice President - Commercial

  • Thanks, John. It's a great question. Maybe start at the top and work more regionally from there. From a more macro perspective, what we've seen is very similar circumstances as recent years. So that percolates through into both gas crack and diesel cracks. So it isn't any meaningful change on a macro perspective. As of late, regionally, we've seen a regular strong summer gasoline season.

    謝謝,約翰。這是一個很好的問題。或許可以從高層開始,然後從那裡開始更多的區域工作。從更宏觀的角度來看,我們所看到的情況與近年來非常相似。因此,這會滲透到天然氣裂解和柴油裂解。因此,從宏觀角度來看,這並不是任何有意義的變化。最近,從地區來看,我們已經看到了夏季汽油旺季的正常表現。

  • But what we have seen is some volatility, and it's all been supply-driven as you pointed out. And that has resulted in sort of temporal really big moves in the price. And I think for the region, which has become relatively balanced to occasionally a little bit long, we're going to see these periods of volatility as supply moves around particularly given that demand is just persisting is where it's been. And so the story on a minute by minute, week-by-week basis is going to be all supply driven.

    但我們看到的是一些波動,正如您所指出的,這一切都是由供應驅動的。這導致了價格暫時性的大幅波動。我認為,對於已經變得相對平衡到偶爾有點長的地區來說,隨著供應的變化,我們將看到這些波動時期,特別是考慮到需求一直持續存在。因此,每分鐘、每週的故事都將由供應驅動。

  • Looking out over the next months. I mean you can't predict what unplanned outages are going to be. They will come as they come. However, the thing that we do know is that we head into fall turnaround season, and that's going to match sort of through the period of time where we switch from gasoline season to diesel season and distillate.

    展望未來幾個月。我的意思是你無法預測會發生什麼意外中斷。他們來了就來。然而,我們確實知道的是,我們將進入秋季週轉季節,這將在某種程度上與我們從汽油季節切換到柴油季節和餾分油季節的時間相匹配。

  • And we anticipate that, that turnaround will be sort of similar-type levels. And if there is any supply-demand imbalances, it will tighten it up and we could probably see a little bit more of a narrow tighter supply-demand balance through that period of time.

    我們預計,這種轉變將達到類似的水平。如果有任何供需失衡,就會加劇這種失衡,我們可能會在這段時間內看到供需平衡更加收緊的情況。

  • John Royall - Analyst

    John Royall - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, thanks, John.

    是的,謝謝,約翰。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Gupta, UBS.

    馬納夫古普塔,瑞銀集團。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Hi, guys. Quick question. A little bit of a follow-up on John Royall. It's very clear surplus cash is all going to go to shareholders and nothing for debt reduction. Just trying to understand a preference between buyback and variable dividend. Should we continue to see a combination of those? Or you have a very strong preference for one of those? Definitely, buybacks over variable, but if you could talk about that.

    嗨,大家好。快問。約翰·羅亞爾的一點後續行動。很明顯,剩餘現金將全部流向股東,而不會用於減少債務。只是想了解回購和可變股利之間的偏好。我們應該繼續看到這些的結合嗎?或者您對其中之一有非常強烈的偏好?當然,回購是可變的,但如果你能談談這一點的話。

  • Kam Sandhar - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    Kam Sandhar - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, good morning, Manav. I kind of alluded to this and when I answered John's question. But I think, number one, the principles around how we return cash, none of that has changed. So you're going to continue to see us ratably, predictably grow the base dividend over time. We've typically done that kind of in that April, May timeframe, obviously driven by the Board discretion.

    是的,早上好,馬納夫。當我回答約翰的問題時,我有點提到了這一點。但我認為,第一,我們如何返還現金的原則沒有任何改變。因此,隨著時間的推移,您將繼續看到我們的基本股息按比例、可預測地增長。我們通常會在四月、五月的時間範圍內這樣做,這顯然是由董事會自行決定的。

  • But as the business grows, you're going to continue to see us target, let's say, double-digit growth in the base dividend over time. That's the first thing. I think the second is, as I said, given where the share price is today and what we see is value and intrinsic value and the return on acquiring our shares back we see that as an attractive value proposition.

    但隨著業務的成長,你將繼續看到我們的目標是,隨著時間的推移,基本股息實現兩位數成長。這是第一件事。我認為第二個問題是,正如我所說,考慮到目前的股價,我們看到的是價值和內在價值,以及收購我們股票的回報,我們認為這是一個有吸引力的價值主張。

  • So the variable dividend we paid in May was more a function of we under allocated our shareholder returns in the first quarter. And so that's not a reflection, I would say, the value that we see in the buyback. So going forward, to the extent that you continue to see an attractive share price, which we do, you should expect most, if not all, of our excess returns will be done in the form of share repurchases.

    因此,我們在五月支付的可變股息更多是我們第一季股東回報分配不足的結果。所以我想說,這並不是我們在回購中看到的價值的反映。因此,展望未來,如果您繼續看到有吸引力的股價(我們確實如此),您應該預期我們的大部分(如果不是全部)超額回報將以股票回購的形式實現。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Perfect. And just a quick follow-up. You did raise the upstream volume guidance for the year. And so, if you could just talk about the thought process behind raising it at this point of time.

    完美的。只是快速跟進。你們確實提高了今年的上游銷售指導。因此,您能否談談此時提出該問題背後的思考過程?

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Manav, what we typically do through the years, we watch our performance and tighten up the range in our guidance as we get into midyear. And what today's guidance range reflects is some really strong performance that we've had through the first six months of the year, and our expectations that we have in the back half of the year.

    當然。馬納夫,我們多年來通常做的事情是,我們觀察我們的表現,並在進入年中時收緊我們的指導範圍。今天的指引範圍反映的是我們今年前六個月的強勁表現,以及我們對今年下半年的預期。

  • So we're trying to guide the market too is the midpoint of that range that we've put out publicly today. So it really is, I think, a reflection of what we've been able to accomplish and how we see the back half of the year unfolding, particularly, I guess, in Q4, where coming through the Christina turnaround, we expect to have very strong Q4 performance.

    因此,我們也試圖將市場引導至我們今天公開發布的區間的中點。所以,我認為,這確實反映了我們已經能夠完成的工作以及我們如何看待下半年的發展,特別是,我想,在第四季度,在經歷克里斯蒂娜的轉變之後,我們預計將有第四季度表現非常強勁。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Thank you so much.

    太感謝了。

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Great. Thanks, Manav.

    偉大的。謝謝,馬納夫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Patrick O'Rourke, ATB market.

    Patrick O'Rourke,ATB 市場。

  • Patrick O’Rourke - Analyst

    Patrick O’Rourke - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, guys and congratulations on hitting the net debt target there. Just first question here. So you sort of unpacked what's going operationally in the thermal unit. Some of our recent monthly well scrubs have turned up some pretty intriguing multilateral cold flow, wells that you guys have drilled. Maybe if you could walk us through sort of the evolution of your view on the play and the potential scope that that could have?

    嘿,早上好,夥計們,祝賀您實現了淨債務目標。這裡只是第一個問題。這樣您就可以了解熱力裝置中的運作。我們最近每個月進行的一些油井清理工作發現了一些非常有趣的多邊冷流,也就是你們鑽探的油井。也許你可以向我們介紹一下你對這部劇的看法的演變以及它可能具有的潛在範圍?

  • Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

    Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

  • Hi, Patrick, it's Keith. Yes, thanks for the question. And probably the one growth project that I didn't touch on before, but we're really excited about what we're seeing. And so obviously, we have a very significant land mass basis. We have a midstream infrastructure there.

    嗨,派崔克,我是基斯。是的,謝謝你的提問。這可能是我之前沒有接觸過的成長項目,但我們對所看到的感到非常興奮。顯然,我們擁有非常重要的土地基礎。我們在那裡有一個中游基礎設施。

  • Obviously, it all connects right into our Upgrader in Lloyd refinery. So a very integrated value chain. We were a pretty active driller in 2023, saw some good results. And the way we set up our program, we will do our winter program around all of the assets and then we'll deploy the rigs over into conventional heavy oil.

    顯然,這一切都直接連接到勞埃德煉油廠的升級器中。這是一個非常一體化的價值鏈。2023 年,我們是一個非常活躍的鑽探人員,看到了一些不錯的結果。我們制定計劃的方式是,我們將圍繞所有資產開展冬季計劃,然後將鑽井平台部署到常規重油中。

  • So you'll see us, our drilling activity in that basin, pick up here in the back half of the year. And you'll start seeing the production growth through the back half of the year coming out of that basin. We're pretty excited because we see lots of opportunity to continue to grow that.

    所以你會看到我們在該盆地的鑽探活動將在今年下半年開始。你將開始看到今年下半年該盆地的產量成長。我們非常興奮,因為我們看到了很多繼續發展的機會。

  • As per our Investor Day pack, easily an additional 20,000 barrels a day of growth over the next three to five years. So that's what we're focused on. We're seeing pretty good results. We're working to contain and get our costs down even further and the netbacks at strip price are really attractive.

    根據我們的投資者日包,未來三到五年內每天產量將輕鬆增加 20,000 桶。這就是我們關注的重點。我們看到了非常好的結果。我們正在努力控制並進一步降低成本,而剝離價格的淨收益確實很有吸引力。

  • Patrick O’Rourke - Analyst

    Patrick O’Rourke - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then maybe moving back over to the macro side. You guys touched on the weakness in heavy high TAN oil in the Gulf, and that's sort of driven some of the performance in the WCS differential. But as a physical shipper on TMX, what's a little bit less sort of clear or transparent to us is sort of how these heavy high TANs, barrels are what the opportunity set is in PADD V, and what the pricing is looking like there and the marketing opportunity. Can you maybe speak to that a little bit and the potential for some value creation there?

    好的。偉大的。然後也許會回到宏觀方面。你們談到了海灣地區重質高 TAN 石油的弱點,這在某種程度上推動了 WCS 差異的一些表現。但作為 TMX 上的實體托運人,我們不太清楚或不透明的是,這些重的高 TAN、桶是如何在 PADD V 中設置機會的,以及那裡的定價以及營銷機會。您能否談談這一點以及在那裡創造價值的潛力?

  • Geoff Murray - Executive Vice President - Commercial

    Geoff Murray - Executive Vice President - Commercial

  • Great. Thank you, Patrick. It's Geoff. It's a really great question. And as that market continues to develop, it's quite a puzzle to be solved over time. We have found as the facility you started up a relatively interesting split between volume with the bulk of the volume just slightly greater than half, headed towards Asia rather than PADD V. We've also seen demand move back and forth between heavy high TAN and light.

    偉大的。謝謝你,派崔克。這是傑夫。這真是一個很好的問題。隨著該市場的不斷發展,隨著時間的推移,這是一個需要解決的難題。我們發現,作為您啟動的設施,容量之間存在相對有趣的劃分,其中大部分容量略大於一半,流向亞洲而不是 PADD V。我們也看到需求在重度高 TAN 和輕質之間來回變化。

  • I would say that early days here. PADD V is testing it out and trying the high TAN barrels, and that may be really high TAN or that may be lower TAN over time. And they do, obviously, continue to like light where they can get it.

    我想說的是早期的情況。PADD V 正在對其進行測試並嘗試高 TAN 桶,隨著時間的推移,這可能是非常高的 TAN,也可能是較低的 TAN。顯然,他們確實繼續喜歡能得到光的地方。

  • So it's been an interesting start. The biggest thing, as I started with, is that this has driven the differential in -- Alberta in the order of dollars. And so I think we continue to see that persist. There will be movement back and forth between Asia and PADD V, and that actually ends up in the rebalancing of global trade flows and the pricing difference between AFRAs and VLCCs has really played into this.

    所以這是一個有趣的開始。正如我一開始所說,最重要的是,這推動了艾伯塔省的美元差異。所以我認為我們會繼續看到這種情況持續存在。亞洲和 PADD V 之間將會出現來回變動,這實際上最終會導致全球貿易流量的重新平衡,而 AFRA 和 VLCC 之間的定價差異確實對此發揮了作用。

  • And it's been an early day's thing that started quite quickly where we have seen reverse lightering off the West Coast to find the most effective, efficient move through to Asia. So I'd kind of point in that direction as well as you look to the overall balances.

    這是早期的事情,很快就開始了,我們已經看到西海岸的反向駁運,以找到最有效、最高效的運輸方式前往亞洲。所以我會指出這個方向,同時你也會專注在整體平衡。

  • Patrick O’Rourke - Analyst

    Patrick O’Rourke - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Patrick.

    謝謝,派崔克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Harry Mateer, Barclays. Please go ahead.

    哈里·馬特爾,巴克萊銀行。請繼續。

  • Harry Mateer - Analyst

    Harry Mateer - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning. You've talked a lot about the shareholder return angle now you're at the $4 million net debt target. But I'm curious whether reaching that long-time goal changes anything or opens up anything for you on the strategic front in terms of priorities? Whether that's upstream M&A or potential JV simplifications like you've talked about in the past?

    謝謝。早安.您已經談論了很多關於股東回報角度的問題,現在您的淨債務目標已達到 400 萬美元。但我很好奇,實現這個長期目標是否會改變任何事情,或者在優先事項方面為您在策略方面帶來什麼?這是上游併購還是像您過去談到的潛在的合資企業簡化?

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think, Harry, nothing really changes on the strategic front. We've had a business model that hasn't dared through time. And we're definitely looking forward to flipping over to 100% shareholder returns. But what we're really focused on right now is the growth projects that we've got underway, and we need to deliver on those. That spending started in 2023 and is largely done by the end of 2025.

    是的。我認為,哈利,戰略方面沒有任何真正的改變。我們的商業模式歷久彌新。我們絕對期待實現 100% 的股東回報。但我們現在真正關注的是我們正在進行的成長項目,我們需要實現這些項目。該支出於 2023 年開始,大部分在 2025 年底完成。

  • So that's something where we're focused on. Other areas where we're obviously focused on is continuing to build out our refining business and getting that operating the way we want it to operate, and managing our cost control. So as we kind of think about what's in front of us, it's just going to be good to run this business model at 100% shareholder returns going forward.

    這就是我們關注的重點。我們顯然關注的其他領域是繼續發展我們的煉油業務並使其按照我們希望的方式運營,以及管理我們的成本控制。因此,當我們思考擺在我們面前的事情時,以 100% 的股東回報率運行這種商業模式將會是一件好事。

  • And that's really what we're focused on today is just sticking toward netting and executing on what's in front of us versus trying to take on new challenges or modifying the strategy in some way going forward.

    這才是我們今天真正關注的重點,就是堅持對我們面前的事情進行淨額和執行,而不是試圖接受新的挑戰或以某種方式修改未來的策略。

  • Harry Mateer - Analyst

    Harry Mateer - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks. And then just a follow-up on the balance sheet. So you've indicated in the past that you're comfortable kind of running cash around the [CAD3 billion] level, gross debt around [CAD7 billion], for the $4 billion net debt. So the expectation we should have that as maturities come up in the next few years, you'll just plan to refinance those in regular course and maintain that cash balance around the current level.

    好的,謝謝。然後是資產負債表的後續行動。因此,您過去曾表示,對於 40 億美元的淨債務,您願意在 [30 億加元] 左右的水平上運行現金,在 [70 億加元] 左右的總債務。因此,我們應該期望,隨著未來幾年到期日的到來,您將只計劃定期為這些債務進行再融資,並將現金餘額維持在當前水準左右。

  • Kam Sandhar - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    Kam Sandhar - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Harry, it's Kam. I would say a couple of things. I think number one, right now, I'd say we're in a very good position financially where we don't really have a lot of maturities coming at us here in the next little while. Our next maturity is a really small one in that $150 million range in 2025.

    哈利,我是卡姆。我想說幾件事。我認為第一,現在我們的財務狀況非常好,在接下來的一段時間內我們並沒有太多的到期日。我們的下一個成熟度是 2025 年 1.5 億美元範圍內的一個非常小的成熟度。

  • And then we're free and clear through to 2027. So I think in the short term, you probably will see us just continue to put that cash on the balance sheet and that mix that you referenced around cash and gross debt, I don't envision you're going to see any material changes.

    然後到 2027 年我們就可以自由並暢通無阻了。因此,我認為在短期內,您可能會看到我們繼續將現金放在資產負債表上,以及您提到的圍繞現金和總債務的組合,我不認為您會看到任何重大變化。

  • Obviously, as market conditions change and move, we'll always look at opportunities, if they're there refinancing. But right now, I'd say we're in a really comfortable position where the maturity profile we've got and the coupon and the tenor that we've got in our debt is quite optimal given the environment we're in.

    顯然,隨著市場狀況的變化和變化,我們將始終尋找機會,如果有再融資的話。但現在,我想說,我們處於一個非常舒適的位置,考慮到我們所處的環境,我們的到期狀況、票息和債務期限都是相當理想的。

  • Harry Mateer - Analyst

    Harry Mateer - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Harry.

    謝謝,哈利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alex Bill, allNewfoundlandLabrador.

    亞歷克斯·比爾(Alex Bill),全紐芬蘭拉布拉多犬。

  • Alex Bill - Analyst

    Alex Bill - Analyst

  • Hi, sorry. I should be grouped with media questions. Good morning. On the SeaRose turnaround, you talked about return of production in Q4, which is the change from prior quarters when it was expected in Q3. Is that just the nature of dry docking today? Or are there specific delays there that you can speak to?

    嗨,抱歉。我應該和媒體提問歸為一類。早安.關於 SeaRose 的扭虧為盈,您談到了第四季度的生產恢復,這與第三季度預期的前幾季相比有所變化。這就是當今乾船塢的本質嗎?或是有具體的延誤情況可以談嗎?

  • Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

    Keith Chiasson - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer

  • Hi, Alex. Yes, the dry dock is going well. I would say, the start to the steel replacement on the hull was a little delayed but now is progressing extremely well. So we're anticipating on having the vessel sale out of the dry dock towards the end of August, early September and be back on station.

    嗨,亞歷克斯。是的,幹船塢進展順利。我想說的是,船體鋼材更換的開始有點延遲,但現在進展得非常順利。因此,我們預計該船將於八月底、九月初從乾船塢出售,然後返回現場。

  • And then the rehook up and restart of production early into the fourth quarter. So a little bit delayed, a couple of weeks to four weeks. But all in all, the work is progressing well now and as expected. So we'll be back on station and restart production in the fourth quarter.

    然後在第四季初重新連接並重新啟動生產。所以有點延遲,幾周到四個星期。但總而言之,目前工作進展順利,符合預期。因此,我們將在第四季度重返崗位並重新開始生產。

  • Alex Bill - Analyst

    Alex Bill - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks for that. And as you're probably aware, Upstream reported a few weeks ago about potential sales, some of your South Asian assets and just wondered if you could potentially speak to that. And if not, taking into note, you're sticking to your netting line earlier, how you might look at other acquisition or sale opportunities as you sort of balanced your debt and where you want it now?

    好的。謝謝你。正如您可能知道的那樣,Upstream 幾週前報導了您的一些南亞資產的潛在銷售情況,只是想知道您是否可以對此進行討論。如果沒有,請注意,您之前會堅持淨額盈利,當您平衡債務以及您現在想要的位置時,您會如何看待其他收購或出售機會?

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, Alex, it's Jon. We really like our portfolio today, and we're not looking -- I don't know where that report came from. To be honest, I haven't seen it. But we like our portfolio. And we're in a position today where we are sticking to our netting and continuing to drive efficiencies right across our business and deliver on our growth projects. So I can't comment on a particular report that you've seen. I haven't seen it, but necessarily nothing in it from our perspectives.

    是的,亞歷克斯,我是喬​​恩。我們真的很喜歡今天的投資組合,而且我們沒有尋找 - 我不知道該報告來自哪裡。說實話,我沒看過。但我們喜歡我們的投資組合。今天,我們堅持淨值計算,繼續提高整個業務的效率並實現我們的成長項目。所以我無法對你所看到的特定報告發表評論。我沒有看到它,但從我們的角度來看,其中必然沒有任何內容。

  • Alex Bill - Analyst

    Alex Bill - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Alex.

    謝謝,亞歷克斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Emma Graney, The Globe and Mail. Please go ahead.

    艾瑪‧格雷尼,《環球郵報》。請繼續。

  • Emma Graney - Analyst

    Emma Graney - Analyst

  • Yes, good day. Thanks for taking my question. I want to ask you in your press release where you talked about the ESG report that was going to be coming out end of June, obviously, a lot of uncertainty because of Bill C-59. When can we expect to kind of see that report? And what are you hearing from the competition bureau there on how those bills are going to pan out?

    是的,美好的一天。感謝您提出我的問題。我想問您,您在新聞稿中談到了將於 6 月底發布的 ESG 報告,顯然,由於 C-59 法案,存在許多不確定性。我們什麼時候可以看到該報告?您從競爭局了解到這些法案將如何實施?

  • Jeff Lawson - Senior Vice President, Corporate Development & Acting Chief Sustainability Officer

    Jeff Lawson - Senior Vice President, Corporate Development & Acting Chief Sustainability Officer

  • Hi, Emma. It's Jeff Lawson here. First of all, on the competition bureau, I guess we'd like to commend the commissioner of the Competition Bureau for acting quickly and coming out with a consultation process. So I don't know if you're aware of that, but a lot of consternation around uncertainty in the wording, in the legislation, which is why people have pulled back on disclosure.

    嗨,艾瑪。我是傑夫·勞森。首先,關於競爭局,我想我們要讚揚競爭局專員迅速採取行動並拿出諮詢程序。所以我不知道你是否意識到這一點,但人們對立法中的措辭不確定性感到非常震驚,這就是人們不願意透露資訊的原因。

  • And the Competition Bureau has launched a consultation where everyone is now proactively commenting to try to clean up the guidance around what will be presented and what won't. And that consultation period is through till September, we should have all of our comments in and expect some further clarity as we go through the fall. So in terms of what will be done, I guess, we like to make a few points.

    競爭局已經發起了一項諮詢,每個人都在積極發表評論,試圖清理關於將呈現什麼和不會呈現什麼的指導。諮詢期一直持續到九月,我們應該收到所有的評論,並期待在秋季時得到進一步的澄清。因此,就將要做的事情而言,我想我們想提出幾點。

  • So everything we were doing prior to the enactment of the legislation, we continue to do. So any environmental work, emissions reduction, land reclamation, on the governance side, indigenous reconciliation activities, just being good stewards of capital in our communities, we're absolutely continuing to do.

    因此,我們將繼續在立法頒布之前所做的一切。因此,任何環境工作、減排、土地復墾、治理方面、原住民和解活動,只要成為我們社區資本的好管家,我們絕對會繼續做下去。

  • On the social governance side, we have our report almost ready to go. We should get it out within the next month, paired back on the environmental side until the legislation is cleaned up a bit on that front. Everything we can do to figure out what an internationally recognized standard is, is something we'll continue to do, alongside the Competition Bureau and the producers here. And when we have further clarity, we'll come up with something, and we just don't have that clarity yet.

    社會治理方面,我們的報告已經準備就緒。我們應該在下個月內把它拿出來,並在環境方面進行配對,直到立法在這方面得到一些清理。我們將與競爭局和這裡的製片人一起繼續努力找出國際公認的標準。當我們更加清晰時,我們會想出一些東西,但我們只是還沒有那麼清晰。

  • Emma Graney - Analyst

    Emma Graney - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. I mean in the scale things, how annoying is that whole C-59 thing?

    好的。偉大的。我的意思是,在規模方面,整個 C-59 的事情有多煩人?

  • Jeff Lawson - Senior Vice President, Corporate Development & Acting Chief Sustainability Officer

    Jeff Lawson - Senior Vice President, Corporate Development & Acting Chief Sustainability Officer

  • It's been a tremendous amount of distraction and work for an incredible number of people who are just trying to do the right thing. So it has been a distraction, everyone. It's taken a huge amount of time and resources. And what's frustrating is that I would say, people in this industry and specifically in our company, we do want to speak to all the good things we're doing.

    對於無數只想做正確事情的人來說,這是巨大的干擾和工作。所以這讓每個人都分心了。這花費了大量的時間和資源。令人沮喪的是,我想說,這個行業的人們,特別是我們公司的人們,我們確實想談論我們正在做的所有好事。

  • We do want to let people know what we're doing. So that's our longer-term intent and plan, and you can expect we'll approach it that way. And you got these curveballs thrown at you and the best thing you can do is try to work through it and not get too frustrated. And I think, work with government and work with the Bureau and will come out the other side, what we think will be a decent place.

    我們確實想讓人們知道我們在做什麼。這就是我們的長期意圖和計劃,您可以期待我們會這樣做。當你遇到這些困難時,你能做的最好的事情就是努力解決它,不要太沮喪。我認為,與政府合作,與局合作,我們認為將是一個不錯的地方。

  • Emma Graney - Analyst

    Emma Graney - Analyst

  • Thanks very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Jeff Lawson - Senior Vice President, Corporate Development & Acting Chief Sustainability Officer

    Jeff Lawson - Senior Vice President, Corporate Development & Acting Chief Sustainability Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks Emma.

    謝謝艾瑪。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Varcoe, Calgary Herald. Please go ahead.

    克里斯‧瓦爾科,《卡加利先驅報》。請繼續。

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, Chris.

    早上好,克里斯。

  • Chris Varcoe - Analyst

    Chris Varcoe - Analyst

  • Hi. Hi, Jon. With oil sands producers, including Cenovus planning more production increases here in the next couple of years, how quickly do you see Western Canada getting back into a situation where the pipelines are running full again and potentially impacting differentials?

    你好。嗨,喬恩。由於包括 Cenovus 在內的油砂生產商計劃在未來幾年內進一步增加產量,您認為加拿大西部地區多久會恢復到管道再次滿載運行並可能影響差異的情況?

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. We get that question a lot, Chris, and there's been a number of different theories. Some of the pipeline producers or pipeliners are thinking it's going to be a short period of time than the producers. We have an internal view. We think at some point, the history of this basin is we do fill available pipeline space, but we also think we have a number of other options to move more barrels out of this province and keep the differential in check.

    是的。克里斯,我們經常被問到這個問題,並且有很多不同的理論。一些管道生產商或管道製造商認為這將比生產商持續更短的時間。我們有一個內部觀點。我們認為,在某個時刻,這個盆地的歷史是我們確實填充了可用的管道空間,但我們也認為我們有許多其他選擇將更多的石油運出該省並控制差異。

  • One thing that I would say to you is, I think for the big oil producers in Western Canada, we've largely solved for the differential and that we've all got either upgrade in capacity or export capacity for the majority of the volumes that we export. So whether we fill up these pipelines, I think Enbridge has said a couple of years or whether it takes five, six years.

    我要對你們說的一件事是,我認為對於加拿大西部的大型石油生產商來說,我們已經基本上解決了差異問題,並且我們都獲得了產能升級或大部分產量的出口能力。 。因此,無論我們是否填補這些管道,我認為安橋已經說過需要幾年時間,或者是否需要五到六年。

  • The impact to our business models is less than it used to be 5 or 10 years ago. So I don't have a firm number for you, Chris, other than its point, we will fill these lines, but the impact of the business model and other options we've got for egress, I think, are there today.

    對我們商業模式的影響比 5 或 10 年前小。因此,克里斯,我沒有確切的數字給你,除了要點之外,我們將填補這些內容,但我認為,商業模式和其他出口選項的影響今天就存在。

  • Chris Varcoe - Analyst

    Chris Varcoe - Analyst

  • Just following up on TMX. You talked about the fact that it's going to have an impact upon the industry and upon Alberta. I guess, what are you seeing? It's not just immediate impacts but the longer term impacts. And ultimately, do you think it's going to be worthwhile or worth it for Canadian tax payers, who obviously put a lot of money to a project, which is run well over budget?

    剛剛在 TMX 上跟進。您談到了它將對該行業和艾伯塔省產生影響的事實。我猜,你看到了什麼?這不僅是直接影響,而且是長期影響。最後,您認為這對加拿大納稅人來說是否值得,因為他們顯然在一個遠遠超出預算的項目上投入了大量資金?

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • I mean, absolutely, Chris. The construction and commissioning and running of the TMX pipeline is a great day for Canadians. Admittedly, it was over budget and admittedly, it was probably more expensive than it needed to be. That being said, this will generate a huge amount of revenue for Canadians in the form of royalties and tax dollars that go towards the public person, in my view, increase the standard of living for all Canadians. So short, medium and long-term, this is a great asset for Canada and it's an important piece of infrastructure for the country.

    我的意思是,絕對是,克里斯。TMX管道的建造、調試和運行對於加拿大人來說是美好的一天。誠然,它超出了預算,而且誠然,它可能比需要的更貴。話雖這麼說,這將以特許權使用費和稅款的形式為加拿大人帶來巨額收入,這些收入將流向公眾,在我看來,這將提高所有加拿大人的生活水平。因此,從短期、中期和長期來看,這對加拿大來說是一筆巨大的資產,也是該國基礎設施的重要組成部分。

  • Chris Varcoe - Analyst

    Chris Varcoe - Analyst

  • Finally, I just wanted to follow up on the question that Emma asked and that's regarding Bill C-58. There was obviously a lot of concerns expressed by both pathways and individual producers but realistically, how great was the threat that you felt that the bill was imposing on the industry, that you needed to pull back on sharing the information you felt you needed to share?

    最後,我只想跟進艾瑪提出的有關比爾 C-58 的問題。顯然,途徑和個人生產者都表達了很多擔憂,但實際上,您認為該法案對該行業造成的威脅有多大,您需要停止分享您認為需要分享的資訊?

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • So I think beyond intended consequence of Bill C-59 is that it's stifled the discussion. And in Canada, we need to have robust discussion on energy discussion because it's such an important part of our economic fabric of this country. And not having certainty over things like what our international standards and what are we being held to is kind of stifled, that debate.

    因此,我認為 C-59 法案超出預期的後果是它扼殺了討論。在加拿大,我們需要就能源問題進行激烈的討論,因為它是這個國家經濟結構的重要組成部分。對於諸如我們的國際標準是什麼以及我們要遵守什麼之類的事情缺乏確定性,這種辯論有點令人窒息。

  • Now as Jeff mentioned, we see a process in place to try and get some clarity around that. And my hope is that will happen sooner rather than later, which will allow us to again start talking about the good things this industry is doing with regard to our efforts on -- sorry, carbon dioxide emissions and environmental performance.

    現在,正如傑夫所提到的,我們看到了一個適當的流程來嘗試澄清這一點。我希望這會早日發生,這將使我們能夠再次開始談論這個行業在我們的努力方面所做的好事——對不起,是二氧化碳排放和環境績效。

  • Chris Varcoe - Analyst

    Chris Varcoe - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Chris.

    謝謝,克里斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Tuttle, Bloomberg News.

    羅伯特‧塔特爾,彭博新聞社。

  • Robert Tuttle - Analyst

    Robert Tuttle - Analyst

  • Yes, hi. You've kind of answered my question in the last just a moment ago, but I wanted to just follow up on the TMX question. When do you see that spot capacity filled up on that? Is it going to take until all the pipelines are filled? Or do you think it's going to be competitive before that time?

    是的,嗨。剛才您已經回答了我的問題,但我想繼續跟進 TMX 問題。什麼時候看到現貨容量已滿?是否要等到所有管道都填滿為止?或者你認為在那之前它會有競爭力嗎?

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Robert, I'm going let Geoff answer the question. He's much closer to that than I am.

    是的,羅伯特,我要讓傑夫回答這個問題。他比我更接近這一點。

  • Geoff Murray - Executive Vice President - Commercial

    Geoff Murray - Executive Vice President - Commercial

  • Hi, Robert, it's me Geoff. That's a good question in terms of the racking and stacking of various forms of egress from Alberta. I would say two things. Currently, the overall tariff around that pipeline is still to be settled. However, based on current projections and currently where it is set, we then have to look to the prices of commodity at the end of the pipe.

    嗨,羅伯特,我是傑夫。就艾伯塔省各種形式的出口的貨架和堆疊而言,這是一個很好的問題。我想說兩件事。目前,該管道的總體關稅仍有待確定。然而,根據目前的預測和目前的設定,我們必須關注管道末端的商品價格。

  • We do see Gulf Coast deliveries, Mid-Continent deliveries and West Coast deliveries, all intrinsically linked through global pricing. And so given if those relationships hold, and that's predominantly set by shipping, we do believe that the cost of spot will see Trans Mountain be one of the near the end of filling. So it is on a cost basis, relatively higher than other alternatives.

    我們確實看到墨西哥灣沿岸的交付、中部大陸的交付和西海岸的交付,所有這些都透過全球定價有著內在的連結。因此,如果這些關係保持不變,而且這主要由航運決定,我們確實相信,現貨成本將使跨山成為即將結束的填充物之一。因此,從成本角度來看,它比其他替代方案相對較高。

  • And so it will fill towards the end of filling all available capacity. Again, that's forward-looking. And what we don't know is what will come along next to create the egress that Jon was speaking about. So markets are fluid, and they continue to move around, and that can have an impact on everything I've just said.

    因此,它將在填充所有可用容量結束時填充。再說一遍,這是前瞻性的。我們不知道接下來會發生什麼來創建喬恩所說的出口。因此,市場是不穩定的,並且會繼續波動,這可能會對我剛才所說的一切產生影響。

  • Robert Tuttle - Analyst

    Robert Tuttle - Analyst

  • So the TMX, you don't see it being utilized at full capacity for what, a couple of years, maybe two or three years, something like that?

    那麼,您認為 TMX 不會在幾年內、也許兩三年之類的情況下得到充分利用?

  • Geoff Murray - Executive Vice President - Commercial

    Geoff Murray - Executive Vice President - Commercial

  • I think that comes to individual supply-demand forecasts and how quickly many various producers come along. And then you look to the future of how does operability go and where are various other pieces of infrastructure and how are they running. I think reasonably, we're not going to expect to see all of current egress filled in the next year. And I think Jon really put it well. Is it two years? Is it three years? Is it five years? Time is going to tell. But you've got it well bounded in that range.

    我認為這涉及到個人的供需預測以及許多不同生產商出現的速度。然後你展望未來的可操作性如何發展,其他各種基礎設施在哪裡以及它們如何運作。我認為合理地,我們不會期望明年看到所有當前的出口被填滿。我認為喬恩說得很好。是兩年了嗎?是三年嗎?是五年嗎?時間會證明一切。但你已經把它限制在這個範圍內了。

  • Robert Tuttle - Analyst

    Robert Tuttle - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Robert.

    謝謝,羅伯特。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I will now turn the call back over to Jon for closing remarks.

    我現在將把電話轉回給喬恩,讓他發表結束語。

  • Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

    Jon McKenzie - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • And thank you very much for participating in the call today. We certainly appreciate the interest in the Company. Thank you for your questions and take care and have a great rest of your day.

    非常感謝您參加今天的電話會議。我們當然感謝您對公司的興趣。感謝您提出問題,祝您有個愉快的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Thank you.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。謝謝。