Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by and welcome to Cenovus Energy's first quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，早安。感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Cenovus Energy 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，此通話正在被錄音。

I would now like to a meeting over to Mr. Patrick Read, Vice President, Investor Relations and Internal Audit. Please go ahead, Mr. Read.

現在我想與投資者關係和內部審計副總裁帕特里克·里德先生會面。請繼續，里德先生。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cenovus' 2025 First Quarter Results Conference Call. On the call this morning are CEO, Jon McKenzie; and CFO, Kam Sandhar, will take you through our results. Then we'll open the line for Jon, Kam and other members of the Cenovus management team to take your questions. Before getting started, I'll refer you to our advisories located at the end of today's news release.

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安，歡迎參加 Cenovus 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。今天早上參加電話會議的有執行長 Jon McKenzie；財務長 Kam Sandhar 將向您介紹我們的業績。然後我們將為 Jon、Kam 和 Cenovus 管理團隊的其他成員開通熱線來回答您的問題。在開始之前，請參閱今天新聞稿末尾的建議。

These describe the forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures and oil and gas terms referred to today. They also outline the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion. Additional information is available on Cenovus' annual MD&A and our most recent AIF and Form 40-F. And as a reminder, all figures we referenced on the call today will be in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise noted. You can view our results at cenovus.com.

這些描述了今天提及的前瞻性資訊、非公認會計準則指標和石油和天然氣術語。他們也概述了與本次討論相關的風險因素和假設。更多資訊請參閱 Cenovus 的年度 MD&A 以及我們最新的 AIF 和 40-F 表格。提醒一下，除非另有說明，我們今天電話會議上引用的所有數字均以加幣為單位。您可以在 cenovus.com 查看我們的結果。

For question and answer portion of the call, please keep to one question with a maximum of one follow-up. You're welcome to rejoin the queue for any other follow-up questions you may have. We also ask that you hold off on any detailed modeling questions, you can follow up on those directly with our investor relations team after the call.

對於通話的問答部分，請限制只提出一個問題，最多進行一次跟進。如果您有任何其他後續問題，歡迎您重新加入隊列。我們也要求您不要提出任何詳細的建模問題，您可以在通話結束後直接與我們的投資者關係團隊進行跟進。

I will now turn the call over to Jon. Jon, please go ahead.

現在我將電話轉給喬恩。喬恩，請繼續。

Great. Thank you, Patrick. Good morning, everybody. Just before we get started on our first quarter performance, I'd like to take a moment to recognize some of our great people who have accomplished great things while also ensuring we do it the right way, protecting our people and our assets. For example, on West White Rose, we have now worked over 27 million hours with a total recordable incident frequency of 0.18.

偉大的。謝謝你，派崔克。大家早安。在我們開始第一季業績之前，我想花點時間表彰一些優秀的員工，他們取得了巨大的成就，同時也確保我們以正確的方式做事，保護我們的員工和資產。例如，在西白玫瑰礦，我們現在已經工作了超過 2700 萬小時，總可記錄事故頻率為 0.18。

This is exceptional performance by any measure and a clear example of how we'll continue to ensure that all of our workers return home safely each and every day. As another example of our safety programs and work, we've instituted a program on dropped off object prevention across our company. This program focuses on planning, hard barriers and work controls to reduce the risk of dropped objects.

無論以何種標準衡量，這都是卓越的表現，也是我們將如何繼續確保所有工人每天都安全回家的一個清晰例子。作為我們的安全計劃和工作的另一個例子，我們在全公司範圍內制定了防止物體掉落的計劃。該計劃側重於規劃、硬屏障和工作控制，以降低物體掉落的風險。

We have seen the impacts of this program and how our work is performed, mitigating risks across our business through the commitment and dedication of our people in the field. At Cenovus, occupational and process safety is ingrained in our culture and our values.

我們已經看到了該計劃的影響以及我們的工作方式，透過我們現場員工的承諾和奉獻精神，降低了整個業務的風險。在 Cenovus，職業和製程安全已根植於我們的文化和價值觀中。

So now turning to our results. Our focus in 2025 is on flawlessly operating the base business, building momentum in the downstream, delivering on our growth projects and maintaining our focus on cost structure. Upstream production in the quarter was 819,000 BOE per day highlighted by yet another impressive result from our oil sands business.

現在來看看我們的結果。2025 年，我們的重點是完美營運基礎業務、在下游領域建立發展勢頭、實現成長項目並保持對成本結構的關注。本季上游產量為每天 819,000 桶油當量，其中油砂業務再次取得了令人印象深刻的成績。

At Christina Lake, production was 238,000 barrels per day, and we have completed the Narrows Lake project, which connects to the Christina Lake plant and are now running steam through a tieback pipeline and injecting steam into the first two well pads. First oil from Narrows Lake is expected early in the third quarter as planned.

克里斯蒂娜湖的日產量為 238,000 桶，我們已經完成了 Narrows Lake 項目，該項目連接到克里斯蒂娜湖工廠，現在正在通過回接管道輸送蒸汽，並將蒸汽注入前兩個井場。預計納羅斯湖將於第三季初按計畫產出第一批石油。

With first production on the way, let me take a moment to talk about what makes this project so special and unique. What we've done at Narrows Lake is a real feat of engineering, and I'm incredibly proud of the technical and operations staff who have made this possible.

隨著第一批產品的推出，請允許我花點時間來談談是什麼讓這個項目如此特別和獨特。我們在納羅斯湖所做的是一項真正的工程壯舉，我為實現這一目標的技術和營運人員感到無比自豪。

At 17 kilometers long, the Narrows Lake tieback is the longest steamline ever started up in the oil sands industry. It allows us to access some of the best reservoir in the basin at a fraction of the cost of building a new plant. Over their producing lives, these first well pads at Narrows are expected to have cumulative steam oil ratios well below two and the best wells are expected to produce at peak rates of over 3,000 barrels per day.

納羅斯湖回接管道長 17 公里，是油砂產業有史以來最長的蒸汽管道。它使我們能夠以建造新工廠的一小部分成本來利用盆地中一些最好的水庫。在其生產壽命期間，Narrows 的這些首批井場預計累計蒸汽油比將遠低於 2，而最佳井的產量預計高峰將達到每天 3,000 桶以上。

These are some of the longest and most productive wells in our industry, showcasing our technical and operating capability. We have now drilled the first five well pads at Narrows Lake. After bringing the first two well pads on, we'll begin steaming the third later this year with two more to follow in 2026.

這些是我們行業中最長、產量最高的油井，展示了我們的技術和營運能力。我們現在已經在 Narrows Lake 鑽探了前五個井場。在啟用前兩個井台後，我們將在今年稍後啟用第三個井台，另外兩個井台將於 2026 年啟用。

At Christina Lake, we already have the lowest steam oil ratio in the industry today and with the Narrows -- with the tie end of Narrows Lake this will decrease further. By using steam more efficiently will drive the SOR down and increase production by about 20,000 barrels per day.

在克里斯蒂娜湖，我們已經擁有目前業界最低的蒸汽油比，而隨著納羅斯湖的連接端的建成，這一比率將進一步降低。透過更有效地利用蒸汽將降低 SOR 並增加每天約 20,000 桶的產量。

This is the first of our major growth projects that we'll be bringing on over the coming year, marking an important milestone for the company. Outside of Christina Lake, performance at Foster Creek continues to be exceptional with production of 203,000 barrels a day over the quarter. This was a result of new well pads drilled into very high-quality reservoir coupled with a successful redevelopments and optimized program.

這是我們將在未來一年內啟動的第一個重大成長項目，標誌著公司的一個重要里程碑。除克里斯蒂娜湖外，福斯特溪 (Foster Creek) 的表現繼續表現出色，本季日產量達到 203,000 桶。這是在高品質油藏中鑽探新井場以及成功進行再開發和優化方案的結果。

Foster Creek is now undergoing a turnaround that began in mid-April, and we're making excellent progress on the turnaround. We're already bringing back production to around 170,000 barrels a day with the remainder of the volumes expected to be back before the end of May.

福斯特溪目前正經歷從四月中旬開始的轉型，目前轉型進展順利。我們的產量已恢復至每天約 17 萬桶，預計剩餘產量將在 5 月底前恢復。

During the turnaround, we're completing some of the tie-ins as part of the optimization project that will add four new steam generators at around 80,000 barrels a day of steam capacity. This will be the first new steam capacity added at Foster Creek since 2016, enabling us to bring forward high-quality resource that will add 30,000 barrels a day of production. The project is now 75% complete and on track for first oil in early 2026.

在轉變過程中，我們將完成一些連接工作，作為優化項目的一部分，該項目將增加四台新的蒸汽發生器，每天的蒸汽容量約為 80,000 桶。這將是自 2016 年以來 Foster Creek 首次新增蒸汽產能，使我們能夠提供優質資源，每天增加 30,000 桶的產量。該項目目前已完成 75%，預計在 2026 年初產出第一批石油。

At Sunrise, production averaged about 52,000 barrels a day in the quarter. In April, we brought on the fourth and final well pad from our first well package since acquiring this asset. And we've now completed the first phase of our growth program, which was focused on the central development area.

Sunrise 本季的平均產量約為每天 52,000 桶。今年四月，我們引進了自收購該資產以來的第一批井包中的第四個也是最後一個井場。現在我們已經完成了成長計畫的第一階段，重點是中央發展領域。

Now starting in May, we'll be commencing on the first of two turnarounds at Sunrise this year in preparation for bringing on the next phase of well pads from the East development area. This will move us into some of the highest quality reservoir in the portfolio and will allow us to fully optimize the steam capacity, leveraging new Cenovus well and completion designs. That means lower SORs and higher production as we bring those well pads on starting in early 2026.

從五月開始，我們將開始今年在 Sunrise 進行的兩次檢修中的第一次，為從東部開發區引進下一階段的井場做準備。這將使我們進入投資組合中一些最高品質的油藏，並使我們能夠充分優化蒸汽容量，利用新的 Cenovus 井和完井設計。這意味著，當我們從 2026 年初開始啟用這些井場時，SOR 會更低，產量會更高。

In the offshore segment, Atlantic volumes were higher quarter over quarter as we saw increased rates from Terra Nova and the West -- or sorry, the White Rose field returned to production in March. Now most importantly, the West White Rose project continues to make great progress.

在海上領域，大西洋地區的產量環比增長，因為我們看到 Terra Nova 和西部（或更遺憾，是 White Rose 油田）的運價上漲，該油田在 3 月恢復了生產。現在最重要的是，西白玫瑰計畫繼續取得巨大進展。

The gravity or concrete gravity structure is ready to leave the graving dock and will begin to Arnold's Cove in the next few days. That is where the dry ballasting will be completed before we move the structure to the White Rose field location in June.

重力或混凝土重力結構已準備好離開乾船塢，並將在未來幾天開始前往阿諾德灣。我們將在這裡完成乾式壓載，然後在六月將結構移至白玫瑰油田位置。

The top sides are also being prepared for sale out to the field with transportation vessel with the transportation vessel now on site in Ingleside. We'll bring these two major components together for installation this summer, which will position us to commence drilling from the platform before the end of the year and achieve first oil in the second quarter of 2026.

目前，頂部側面也正在準備透過運輸船運往現場銷售，運輸船目前已抵達英格爾賽德現場。我們將在今年夏天將這兩個主要部件組裝在一起進行安裝，這將使我們能夠在今年年底之前開始從平台進行鑽探，並在 2026 年第二季度獲得第一批石油。

In the downstream, Canadian refining performance was exceptionally strong with record quarterly throughput and utilization rate of 104%. We're certainly seeing the benefit of improvements we've made during the upgrader turnaround last year, and we expect that business to continue to perform well despite narrow light heavy differentials.

在下游領域，加拿大煉油業績表現異常強勁，季度產量和利用率均創歷史新高，達 104%。我們確實看到了去年升級轉型期間所取得的改進成果，我們預計，儘管輕重差異較小，但業務仍將繼續表現良好。

In the US, we're continuing to build momentum in our operating performance highlighted by strong throughput, lower cost and better process unit reliability in our operated assets. Our Toledo refinery is currently undergoing a major turnaround, including maintenance on eight units within the refinery -- eight major units within the refinery, including the smaller of the two crude units. This work will help to drive a step change in performance going forward.

在美國，我們的經營績效持續增強，突顯在我們營運資產的產量強勁、成本降低以及製程單元可靠性提高。我們的托萊多煉油廠目前正在進行重大檢修，包括對煉油廠內的八個裝置進行維護——煉油廠內的八個主要裝置，包括兩個原油裝置中較小的一個。這項工作將有助於推動未來績效的重大變革。

Turnarounds at both our operated -- sorry, at our non-operated refineries, which began in the first quarter are also now complete. With crack spreads improving and our Toledo turnaround wrapping up this quarter, we expect to see a clear runway for our US refining business to deliver higher performance through the second half of this year.

我們營運的兩家——抱歉，是非營運的煉油廠——的檢修工作在第一季開始，現在也完成。隨著裂解價差的改善和本季托萊多轉型的結束，我們預計美國煉油業務將在今年下半年實現更高的業績。

I'll now turn it over to Kam to walk through the financial results.

現在我將把時間交給 Kam 來介紹財務結果。

Thanks, Jon. Good morning, everyone. In the first quarter, we generated $2.8 billion of operating margin at approximately $2.2 billion of adjusted funds flow. Operating margin in the upstream was around $3 billion, an increase of approximately $380 million from the fourth quarter, driven by our strong operating performance and higher sales volumes.

謝謝，喬恩。大家早安。第一季度，我們創造了 28 億美元的營業利潤，調整後資金流動約 22 億美元。上游業務的營業利潤約為 30 億美元，較第四季增加約 3.8 億美元，這得益於我們強勁的營運業績和更高的銷售量。

Our business continues to significantly benefit from narrow heavy oil differentials since the TMX pipeline came into service last year. Oil sands nonfuel operating costs were $8.92 per barrel in the first quarter as we continue to deliver some of the lowest cost production in the basin.

自去年 TMX 管道投入使用以來，我們的業務持續大幅受益於狹窄的重油價差。第一季度，我們繼續在盆地內提供成本最低的生產，油砂非燃料營運成本為每桶 8.92 美元。

In the downstream, an operating margin shortfall of approximately $240 million reflected seasonally low Chicago crack spreads as well as the tighter heavy oil differentials. Our downstream operating margin also included $26 million of inventory losses and $81 million of turnaround expenses in the quarter.

在下游，營業利潤缺口約 2.4 億美元，反映出芝加哥裂解價差季節性走低以及重油價差收窄。我們的下游營業利潤還包括本季 2,600 萬美元的庫存損失和 8,100 萬美元的周轉費用。

In the Canadian refining, our operating margin was $68 million, up $21 million from the prior quarter despite a nearly $4 per barrel decrease in the upgrading differential. Operating costs in the Canadian refining business were $10.81 per barrel, also down around 12% relative to Q4, excluding turnaround costs.

在加拿大煉油廠，儘管升級差價每桶下降了近 4 美元，但我們的營業利潤率為 6,800 萬美元，比上一季增加了 2,100 萬美元。加拿大煉油業務的營運成本為每桶 10.81 美元，不包括週轉成本，也比第四季下降了約 12%。

We are also pleased with the progress we made in the first quarter in the US refining business. Our adjusted market capture of 62%, which excludes inventory holding gains and losses or FIFO impact was approximately 10% higher than the fourth quarter. This reflects higher reliability and resulted in an increase in adjusted refining margin of more than $2 per barrel.

我們也對第一季美國煉油業務的進展感到滿意。我們的調整後市佔率為 62%，不包括庫存持有損益或 FIFO 影響，比第四季高出約 10%。這反映了更高的可靠性，並導致調整後的煉油利潤率每桶增加 2 美元以上。

Excluding turnaround costs, our operating costs in the US refining business were $12.15 per barrel. Importantly, we saw a continued decrease quarter-over-quarter in controllable costs in our operated assets, and we expect those costs to continue to trend downward over time. Capital investment of $1.2 billion was driven by sustaining activity across the business as well as growth capital in both the oil sands and Atlantic region, where we're advancing our major projects.

不計週轉成本，我們在美國煉油業務的營運成本為每桶 12.15 美元。重要的是，我們看到營運資產的可控成本逐季持續下降，我們預計這些成本將隨著時間的推移繼續呈下降趨勢。12 億美元的資本投資是由維持整個業務的活動以及油砂和大西洋地區的成長資本所推動的，我們正在這些地區推進我們的主要項目。

Free funds flow was approximately $1 billion in the quarter. And consistent with our commitment to grow shareholder returns, our Board of Directors has approved an 11% increase to the annual base dividend to $0.80 per share.

本季自由資金流約 10 億美元。並且根據我們增加股東回報的承諾，我們的董事會已批准將年度基本股息提高 11% 至每股 0.80 美元。

This increased dividend and the sustaining capital required to maintain our business is fully supported in a $45 per barrel WTI oil price. This dividend increase is an outcome of the continued growth we see in our business. And as we deliver our growth projects and build momentum in our downstream business, we're confident in our ability to continue to grow our dividend consistently over time.

每桶 45 美元的 WTI 油價完全支持了股息的增加和維持業務所需的持續資本。股息增加是我們業務持續成長的結果。隨著我們實現成長項目並在下游業務中積聚動力，我們有信心隨著時間的推移持續增加股息。

Our net debt was approximately $5.1 billion at the end of the first quarter. This includes the redemption of the preferred shares, an increase in noncash working capital largely related to tax instalments and payments of annual incentives as well as normal course reductions in accounts payable.

第一季末，我們的淨債務約為 51 億美元。這包括優先股的贖回、主要與分期付款和年度獎勵支付有關的非現金營運資本的增加以及應付帳款的正常減少。

While our net debt remains elevated above our $4 billion target, we are prioritizing the balance sheet with our excess free funds flow, while continuing to remain active with our NCIB given the current valuation of our shares.

儘管我們的淨債務仍然高於 40 億美元的目標，但我們正在利用多餘的自由資金流優先改善資產負債表，同時考慮到我們股票的當前估值，我們將繼續積極利用 NCIB。

In total, during the quarter, we returned $595 million to shareholders through dividends, share buybacks and the redemption of the preferred shares. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, the company repurchased $178 million worth of shares through our NCIB from May through to May 5 or about 11 million shares.

總體而言，本季我們透過股息、股票回購和優先股贖迴向股東返還了 5.95 億美元。在本季結束後，該公司從 5 月到 5 月 5 日透過我們的 NCIB 回購了價值 1.78 億美元的股票，約 1,100 萬股。

With the value we see in our shares today and with the capital investment decreasing as we complete our major projects, we see a significant opportunity to increase our returns to shareholders through buybacks going forward and continuing to ensure our balance sheet remains strong.

鑑於我們今天看到的股票價值以及隨著我們完成主要項目而減少的資本投資，我們看到了一個重大機會，可以透過未來回購來增加股東回報，並繼續確保我們的資產負債表保持強勁。

I'll now turn the call back to Jon for some closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給喬恩，請他發表一些結束語。

Great. Thank you, Kam. We accomplished a lot in the first quarter. And looking forward, we've had a great start to the second quarter, and we have a lot more to do over the next six weeks. By the end of Q2, the vast majority of our 2025 turnaround activity in both the upstream and the downstream will be behind us.

偉大的。謝謝你，Kam。我們在第一季取得了很多成就。展望未來，我們第二季已經有了一個很好的開端，未來六週我們還有很多工作要做。到第二季末，我們 2025 年上游和下游扭虧為盈計畫的絕大部分都將完成。

Narrows Lake will be ready to begin production and both the concrete gravity structure and the top sides for West White Rose will be preparing for installation offshore. With major maintenance activities behind us and production beginning to ramp up, we're positioned for a very clear runway of strong operating performance in the second half of the year and into 2026.

納羅斯湖 (Narrows Lake) 將準備投入生產，西白玫瑰 (West White Rose) 的混凝土重力結構和頂部側面將準備在海上安裝。隨著主要維護活動的結束和產量開始提升，我們已為今年下半年和 2026 年強勁的營運業績做好了準備。

Now with the recent volatility in the market -- or sorry, the recent volatility in the market has been a good reminder of why we put our strategic priorities and financial framework in place. We continue to progress our growth plans with minimal impact to the business. This financial discipline, coupled with our focus on reducing costs, makes Cenovus resilient and durable for the long time and well positioned in any reasonable commodity price scenario.

現在，隨著最近市場的波動——或者抱歉，最近的市場波動很好地提醒了我們為什麼要製定策略重點和財務框架。我們將繼續推進我們的成長計劃，盡量減少對業務的影響。這種財務紀律，加上我們對降低成本的關注，使得 Cenovus 具有長期的彈性和持久性，並在任何合理的商品價格情境中佔據有利地位。

And with that, we're happy to take your questions.

我們非常樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Greg Pardy, RBC Capital Markets.

格雷格·帕迪（Greg Pardy），加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning and appreciate the rundown. Jon, can you dig into the -- maybe just the scope of the work you've got going on at Toledo? I guess that you're wrapping up, but also maybe what the objectives are in terms of the stepwise improvement performance that you referred to?

是的，謝謝。早安，感謝您的介紹。喬恩，您能否深入了解一下—也許只是您在托萊多所進行的工作範圍？我想您已經總結完了，但是您提到的逐步改進績效的目標是什麼呢？

Yeah, sure. Good morning, Greg. So at Toledo, we're currently in turnaround in the smaller part of the plant. So I think it's the west side of the plant. I often get Lima, Toledo mixed up and we call one north, one west. But I think it's the west side of the plant. But we're into eight major vessels. So this would include the small crude unit, the [cokers], the reformer, the tail gas unit and the like.

是的，當然。早安，格雷格。因此，在托萊多，我們目前正在對工廠較小的部分進行調整。所以我認為它是工廠的西側。我常常把利馬和托萊多混淆，我們把一個叫做北，一個叫做西。但我認為它是工廠的西側。但我們已經進入了八艘主要船隻。因此這將包括小型原油裝置、焦化裝置、重整裝置、廢氣裝置等。

But the real intention here, Greg, is just to continue on this journey of improvement in the reliability of our assets. So we've got a very tight scope on this. We're now through, I think, the riskiest part of the turnaround, and we've been through all our major inspections, and we're continuing forward.

但格雷格，我們真正的意圖只是繼續提高我們資產的可靠性。所以我們對此有一個非常嚴格的限制。我認為，我們現在已經度過了轉型過程中最危險的部分，我們已經通過了所有主要檢查，並且我們將繼續前進。

As I mentioned in my call, we see this as kind of ramping up in the second quarter and sort of the mid-June time frame. But it really marks a progression of improvement that we've been making through our assets over the past while.

正如我在電話會議中提到的那樣，我們認為這種情況將在第二季和六月中旬逐漸加劇。但它確實標誌著我們過去一段時間透過資產取得的進步。

So you'll remember in Q2 last year, we took down the Lloyd upgrader for a major, major turnaround, that asset operated incredibly well coming out of that turnaround as we were able to get after a lot of the major issues that were haunting us there.

您會記得，在去年第二季度，我們關閉了勞合社升級項目，進行了重大轉變，該資產在轉變後運作得非常好，因為我們能夠解決困擾我們的許多重大問題。

And similarly, in Q3, Q4, we took down Lima and that asset has operated really well coming out of turnaround operating at or close to full capacity through Q1, and that continues through Q2. So we expect to see the same kind of step change performance in Toledo coming out of this and looking forward to an unencumbered run through Q3 and Q4, where we don't have any major outages in our downstream business.

同樣，在第三季度和第四季度，我們關閉了利馬項目，該資產的運營情況非常好，在第一季度實現了扭虧為盈或接近滿負荷運營，並且這種狀況一直持續到第二季​​度。因此，我們預計托萊多將出現同樣的階躍變化表現，並期待第三季和第四季能夠順利運行，我們的下游業務不會出現任何重大中斷。

Okay. Got it. Thanks for that. Maybe just shifting gears on to the marketing side. Just at times, the realizations on Foster Creek can be just a little all over the place, at least by our yardstick. And I'm just curious, how do you decide on Christina or Foster Creek in terms of moving those barrels through TMX into Asia or California or moving them down into the lower 48?

好的。知道了。謝謝。也許只是將重點轉向行銷方面。有時，福斯特溪的實現可能會有點混亂，至少以我們的標準來看是如此。我很好奇，您如何決定選擇 Christina 還是 Foster Creek，將這些桶子通過 TMX 運往亞洲或加利福尼亞，還是運往美國本土 48 個州？

Sure. So I've got Geoff Murray on the line with me. So Geoff, that's a good question for you.

當然。所以我讓傑夫·默里和我通話。傑夫，這對你來說是一個好問題。

Greg, it's a great question. And when you look at the assets on an asset-by-asset basis, I think you're going to continue to see that movement around. When you take a look at oil sands as a whole, you'll find that the value of the assets we own for moving product around sort of consistently resolve themselves at the oil sands level.

格雷格，這是一個很好的問題。當你逐項查看資產時，我認為你會繼續看到這種變動。當你從整體上看待油砂時，你會發現，我們擁有的用於運輸產品的資產的價值在油砂層面上始終如一地得到解決。

The reason for that is we make a decision every month, taking a look not only at locational differentials between Alberta and the West Coast, Alberta and the Gulf Coast, but we also take the grade differential into account. So there are slight differences in quality between the high 10 and low 10.

原因是我們每個月都會做出決定，不僅會考慮阿爾伯塔省與西海岸、阿爾伯塔省與墨西哥灣沿岸之間的位置差異，還會考慮等級差異。因此，高 10 分和低 10 分之間的品質略有不同。

And we do find that, that moves around notably in the US rather than so much on the West Coast. But we will move to find an extra $0.25, $0.50, $0.75 on grade choices, and that is to optimize the value of pipeline contracts like Trans Mountain, Keystone and Flanagan South. So I think you'll continue to see that movement. But within the oil sands segment, you should see it resolved itself based on those larger market indicators.

我們確實發現，這種現像在美國尤其明顯，而不是在西海岸。但我們將在等級選擇上額外投入 0.25 美元、0.50 美元、0.75 美元，以優化 Trans Mountain、Keystone 和 Flanagan South 等管道合約的價值。所以我認為你會繼續看到這種運動。但在油砂領域，你應該會看到這個問題根據那些更大的市場指標自行解決。

Dennis Fong, CIBC.

加拿大帝國商業銀行的 Dennis Fong。

Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. As well as congratulations on a really strong quarter. Yeah, good morning. My first one is just on the downstream side and a bit of a follow-on to Greg's question. As you've have gone through the -- as you just highlighted, the major part of the turnaround in Toledo, like are there any parts of the facility that you found can be further optimized? And further, how are you thinking about product marketing and so forth once you've kind of ramped that asset back up?

大家好，早安，感謝您回答我的問題。同時也恭喜本季業績表現強勁。是的，早安。我的第一個問題只是關於下游方面，並且與 Greg 的問題有點相似。正如您所經歷的——正如您剛才強調的，托萊多轉變的主要部分，您是否發現該設施的哪些部分可以進一步優化？此外，當您重新增加該資產後，您會如何考慮產品行銷等等？

Yeah. One of the things we're always looking to do, Dennis, is improve the ability of our refineries to operate more efficiently, capture more margin, can take costs out of the system. And those things are all kind of tied together. One of the longer-term or medium-term objectives that we've got is to really start to run Lima and Toledo as an integrated operating unit. Those refineries were meant to be run together. They were designed that way.

是的。丹尼斯，我們一直在尋求的其中一件事就是提高我們煉油廠的營運能力，使其更加高效，獲取更多的利潤，並降低系統成本。這些事情都是相互連結在一起的。我們的長期或中期目標之一是真正開始將利馬和托萊多作為一個綜合營運單位來運作。這些煉油廠原本打算一起運作。它們就是那樣設計的。

And ultimately, that's the direction we're going. So in light of where we've been over the last six months in dealing with some fundamental reliability issues and getting that behind us, you probably haven't noticed that we are also working on a number of things to get products to market in a different way that captures more and more margin for us.

最終，這就是我們前進的方向。因此，考慮到我們在過去六個月中處理一些基本可靠性問題並解決這些問題的過程，您可能還沒有註意到，我們還在開展一些工作，以不同的方式將產品推向市場，從而為我們帶來越來越多的利潤。

So some of the things that I would point to is opening the dock at Toledo and moving more and more product off the dock, getting those products into higher realization markets. We're looking at all options of egress from really rail to marine to pipe, and we've got some interesting things happening on the pipe side as well. But as we kind of progress this and increase the competitiveness of these refineries, we're really tackling this on all fronts.

因此，我想指出的一些事情是開放托萊多碼頭，將越來越多的產品從碼頭運出，將這些產品推向更高實現率的市場。我們正在研究從鐵路到海運再到管道的所有出口選擇，而且我們在管道方面也發現了一些有趣的事情。但隨著我們在這方面取得進展並提高這些煉油廠的競爭力，我們確實正在從各個方面解決這個問題。

Great. I appreciate that color on the downstream side. Shifting gears towards upstream. I wanted to kind of ask a question on Sunrise here. Obviously, you've been making a lot of progress on that particular asset with kind of the new well pad adds and a view of increasing production over the next couple of years.

偉大的。我很欣賞下游的那種顏色。轉向上游。我想在這裡問一個關於日出的問題。顯然，你們在該特定資產上已經取得了很大進展，增加了新的井場，並計劃在未來幾年內提​​高產量。

As you further optimize that, how are you thinking about where OpEx and SOR could have actually trend towards? And kind of what's the upside in terms of this asset maybe in terms of applying again Cenovus best practices in terms of underlying operations?

當您進一步優化時，您如何考慮 OpEx 和 SOR 的實際趨勢？那麼，就基礎營運而言，這項資產的優勢是什麼？例如，可以再次應用 Cenovus 的最佳實務嗎？

What we've talked about publicly, Dennis, is taking that asset to about 75,000 barrels a day. And that would tell you that the SOR is coming down from its design basis of about 3.5% to something close to 3% and potentially below that.

丹尼斯，我們公開談論的是將該資產的產量提高到每天約 75,000 桶。這就意味著 SOR 將從其設計基準的約 3.5% 下降到接近 3% 甚至可能低於該水準。

And one of the things that's really exciting for us on that asset, and I mentioned this on the call, is we're actually moving to the eastern side of Sunrise, which is some of the best resource that we have inside our portfolio.

對於這項資產來說，真正讓我們興奮的事情之一就是，我在電話會議上提到了這一點，那就是我們實際上正在向 Sunrise 的東側轉移，這是我們投資組合中最好的資源之一。

So as we kind of move into what we call the V Pads, which would be the one, two and then you'll get four and five and three later on. These are some of the best reservoir that we have in the portfolio when we'll be drilling sort of the longer wells with the steam separators who really give us the ability to use steam differently.

因此，當我們進入所謂的 V Pad 時，它將是一、二，然後你會得到四、五和三。這些是我們投資組合中最好的儲層，當我們使用蒸汽分離器鑽探較長的井時，蒸汽分離器確實使我們能夠以不同的方式使用蒸汽。

And ultimately, the recovery on these wells is enormous as well. Some of the best wells that we have in the V Pads are going to recover north of 4 million barrels over their life. So we're really excited about the strength of that reservoir and the quality of that reservoir. And as we move more and more into it, you'll see the SOR come down, and you'll see the production come up to that 75,000 barrels a day that we talked about.

最終，這些油井的採收率也是巨大的。我們在 V Pads 擁有的一些最好的油井在其使用壽命內將採收超過 400 萬桶石油。因此，我們對該水庫的強度和品質感到非常興奮。隨著我們不斷深入，你會看到 SOR 下降，而產量將上升到我們所說的每天 75,000 桶。

Menno Hulshof, TD Securities.

道明證券的 Menno Hulshof。

Thanks and good morning everyone. I'll start with a question on the CapEx profile in your slide deck that points to a fairly large drop in 2026 on spending into the, call it, $4 billion range. So my question is, what is your confidence level in that estimate? And what are the factors that could nudge the 2026 budget a bit higher or lower as the year progresses?

謝謝大家，早安。我首先要問一個有關您幻燈片中的資本支出概況的問題，該問題指出，到 2026 年，支出將大幅下降，降至 40 億美元左右。所以我的問題是，您對這個估計的信心程度如何？隨著時間的推移，哪些因素可能導致 2026 年的預算略有增加或減少？

Yeah, good. Thanks for the question, Menno. I'll start by preferencing this, and then I'll turn it over to Kam. But the capital spend actually starts to come down in the fourth quarter this year as some of our projects moved from the project phase to commissioning and startup. But we have high confidence that we are going to be decreasing our capital budget from the $5 billion that we've been running at to a lower number in 2026. But maybe you want to take that on, Kam?

是的，很好。謝謝你的提問，Menno。我將首先優先考慮這一點，然後再將其交給 Kam。但隨著我們的一些專案從專案階段進入調試和啟動階段，資本支出實際上在今年第四季開始下降。但我們非常有信心，到 2026 年，我們的資本預算將從目前的 50 億美元減少到一個更低的數字。但也許你想接受這個任務，Kam？

Sure. So Menno, I think at the end of the day, we were it start is this is really a function of the fact that we spent the last three years focusing on the growth plan that we've gotten. As you know, this year, we've got about $1.4 billion to $1.8 billion of growth spend.

當然。所以 Menno，我認為，從根本上來說，我們之所以能開始這樣做，實際上是因為我們過去三年一直專注於我們已經獲得的成長計劃。如您所知，今年我們的成長支出約為 14 億至 18 億美元。

And that growth really in earnest starts to show up this year and going through into 2027. So I think the big benefit we've got is we've got a fairly robust trajectory of volume growth over the next few years and couple that with, I'd say, a desire to have lower spending.

這種增長將從今年開始真正顯現，並持續到 2027 年。因此，我認為我們獲得的最大好處是，未來幾年我們的銷售將呈現相當強勁的成長軌跡，而且，我想說，我們還希望降低支出。

I think at the end of the day, we are really focused on driving what's the best value for our shareholders. So I think given other capital allocation priorities we have, particularly around shareholder returns, I think we've got pretty high confidence that you're going to see the capital come down.

我認為，歸根究底，我們真正關注的是為股東創造最大價值。因此，我認為，考慮到我們的其他資本配置優先事項，特別是圍繞股東回報，我們非常有信心您會看到資本下降。

And just to give you a bit of a frame of reference, one of the biggest changes you're going to see year over year is as West White Rose gets completed, that probably singularly will be one of the largest decreases we're going to see in capital profile going into 2026, given that project will be largely completed by the end of this year. and the drilling of the wells starting up kind of late Q4 and into Q1.

為了給您一些參考框架，您將看到的逐年最大變化之一是隨著 West White Rose 的完工，這可能是我們在 2026 年看到的資本狀況最大降幅之一，因為該項目將在今年年底前基本完工。油井鑽探工作於第四季末至第一季開始。

So I'd say from a confidence level, I think at the end of the day, we're pretty confident that we're going to see a drop. And I'd say, for now, I think somewhere in that low $4 billion range is a good starting point for you guys to think about for 2026.

因此，從信心水平來看，我認為最終我們非常有信心看到下降。我想說，就目前而言，我認為 40 億美元左右的低點是你們為 2026 年做規劃的一個好起點。

Great. Thanks for that. And then my second question is on Narrows Lake and how it ultimately gets reported. My understanding is that it simply gets flared into Christina Lake reporting right out of the gate, but maybe you can confirm that.

偉大的。謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於納羅斯湖以及它最終是如何被報道的。我的理解是，這件事一開始就引起了克里斯蒂娜·萊克 (Christina Lake) 的報道，但也許您可以證實這一點。

And then second, you touched on -- and you did touch on this in your opening remarks, Jon, but what sort of an impact are you expecting Narrows Lake to have on overall Christina Lake blend quality in netbacks? Thank you.

其次，喬恩，您在開場白中確實提到了這一點，但是您預計納羅斯湖會對克里斯蒂娜湖整體混合質量產生什麼樣的影響？謝謝。

Yeah. So you're absolutely right, Menno, this is going to just be part of the Christina Lake reporting. It's all one complex now. And in terms of quality of production, it's very similar to what we see at Christina Lake. Now the interesting thing though, and I touched on this in my opening comments is building that pipeline of 17 kilometers and getting that operating well and seeing the start-up as flawlessly as we have seen it also gives us a lot of confidence to think about resource development going forward in places like Kirby West, which is to the south of Christian Lake seem accessible with the technology that we've got today.

是的。所以你完全正確，門諾，這只是克里斯蒂娜·萊克報道的一部分。現在一切都變得複雜起來。就生產品質而言，它與我們在克里斯蒂娜湖看到的非常相似。不過，現在有趣的是，我在開場白中提到了這一點，那就是修建這條 17 公里長的管道，並使其運作良好，看到啟動過程如此完美，這也讓我們對未來在 Kirby West 等地進行資源開發充滿信心，Kirby West 位於 Christian Lake 的南部，憑藉我們今天擁有的技術，似乎可以到達這些地方。

So it really does open up a lot of things for us at Christina Lake. But in the short term, what you'll see is Narrows just come in to Christina, it will be reported as one complex and the point that I was making earlier is that the quality of crude is very similar.

所以它確實為我們在克里斯蒂娜湖開闢了很多東西。但在短期內，你會看到 Narrows 剛進入 Christina，它將被報告為一個綜合體，而我之前提到的觀點是，原油的品質非常相似。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Hey, good morning, Jon team.

嘿，早上好，喬恩團隊。

Hey Neil.

嘿，尼爾。

Hey, good morning, Jon. Wanted your perspective on West White Rose, we're getting close to that inflection. I know there's some really big milestones ahead here over the next six months. So we want to just see how that's tracking and what you're spending time thinking about?

嘿，早上好，喬恩。想要了解您對 West White Rose 的看法，我們已經接近那個轉變了。我知道在接下來的六個月裡這裡將會有一些非常重要的里程碑。所以我們只是想看看追蹤情況如何以及您花時間思考了什麼？

Yeah. We used the word inflection a lot inside this company, and it kind of describes where we think we are as a company as well. But as I mentioned in my notes, and I'll just kind of give you a rundown of how we see this project unfolding over the next six, eight months. But we are literally days away from towing out the gravity-based structure from Argentia, we'll take it to a place called Arnold's Cove, where we'll do the dry ballasting. And that could happen as early as tomorrow, but it's going to happen over the next few days.

是的。我們在公司內部經常使用「語調」這個詞，它也描述了我們認為我們作為一家公司所處的位置。但正如我在筆記中提到的那樣，我只是想向你簡要介紹一下我們對該專案在未來六到八個月內進展的展望。但實際上，我們只需幾天時間就能將重力結構從阿根廷拖出來，我們將把它帶到一個叫阿諾德灣的地方，在那裡進行乾壓。這可能最早在明天就會發生，但它將在接下來的幾天內發生。

Similarly, we have the Costco vessel now in Ingleside and is preparing for the load out of the top sides that will happen at the end of the month, early June. And we'll be bringing the top sides up to Newfoundland to Bull Arm.

同樣，我們現在在英格爾賽德有一艘 Costco 船，正在為六月初的裝載做準備。我們將帶領頂級球隊前往紐芬蘭的 Bull Arm。

In June, we will tow the gravity-based structure out to the field, and we will put it, replace it on the seabed and then in July, we'll bring the top sides from Bull Arm and we'll make them up with the gravity-based structure. From there, there's a few months to do of commissioning and start-up work. And then in Q4, we'll start drilling with first production, as I mentioned, expected in the second quarter of 2026. But it's a pretty exciting time, and this is becoming very real, very, very quickly.

六月，我們將把重力結構拖到現場，然後把它放置到海床上，七月份，我們將把頂部從 Bull Arm 運過來，並用重力結構將它們組裝起來。從那時起，還有幾個月的時間進行調試和啟動工作。然後在第四季度，我們將開始鑽探並進行首次生產，正如我所提到的，預計在 2026 年第二季度。但這是一個非常激動人心的時刻，而且它正在非常非常快地變成現實。

Jon, as you think about derisking those items, what is the most important of them? And how much confidence do you have that you have mitigated those risks?

喬恩，當你考慮降低這些物品的風險時，其中最重要的是什麼？您對於已經減輕這些風險有多大信心？

Well, we have great confidence in where we are today. We actually floated the gravity-based structure last night. So we just continue to kind of de-risk this project and get to important milestones in a very methodical way. So there's nothing that we're doing here, Neil, that is unique and out of sequence what others have done in this basin. It's just big pieces of equipment happening in very short periods of time right now.

嗯，我們對目前的狀況非常有信心。我們昨晚實際上讓重力結構漂浮起來了。因此，我們只是繼續以非常有條理的方式降低這個專案的風險並實現重要的里程碑。所以尼爾，我們在這裡所做的並沒有什麼特別之處，也沒有什麼與其他人在盆地裡所做的不一致之處。目前，這只是在很短的時間內發生的大型設備事件。

Thanks, Jon.

謝謝，喬恩。

Thanks, Neil.

謝謝，尼爾。

John Royall, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was disconnected for a chunk of the call, so I'm hoping that none of this was addressed. But I wanted to start on capture rates in refining and -- you had a nice improvement this quarter despite a tight dip.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我在通話過程中一度斷線，所以我希望這些問題沒有得到解決。但我想從煉油的捕獲率開始——儘管下滑幅度很小，但本季還是取得了不錯的進步。

You mentioned some impact from improvements you made at Lima. Should we expect that given you'll be back in turnaround this quarter with Toledo, that 2Q should come off a little bit on the capture rate? And then you talked about 70%-plus being a range that's kind of a near-term target. Is that achievable in the second half? Or should we need some more help from just to get there?

您提到了在利馬所做的改進所產生的一些影響。鑑於本季度您將與托萊多一起扭轉局面，我們是否應該預期第二季的捕獲率會略有下降？然後您談到 70% 以上是一個近期目標範圍。下半年能達成這個目標嗎？或者我們需要更多的幫助才能到達那裡？

Yeah. You kind of touched on the three things that impact capture rate. One is the definite that has certainly been tight. And although it's good for the company, it does impact our capture rate and our ability to drive profitability in the downstream. And we expect that to stay tight through the second quarter.

是的。您提到了影響捕獲率的三個因素。一是肯定已經很緊了。雖然這對公司有利，但確實影響了我們的捕獲率和推動下游盈利的能力。我們預計第二季度這一情況仍將保持緊張。

The second thing is reliability and are you producing the products that you expect to produce. And I would say that is happening as per plan, and I think we're in good shape there. And then that allows you to place those products effectively into the market, and that's the third thing. So as we kind of work through the turnaround in Toledo, that obviously affects Q2, but coming out of that, we expect to be well above the 62% that we were in Q1.

第二件事是可靠性，以及您是否生產了您期望生產的產品。我想說的是，一切都按計劃進行，而且我認為我們目前的狀態很好。然後，您就可以有效地將這些產品推向市場，這是第三件事。因此，當我們努力扭轉托萊多的頹勢時，這顯然會影響第二季度，但最終我們預計該季度的成長率將遠高於第一季的 62%。

Great. Thank you. And then my second question is on the pacing around the buyback. In 1Q, you had some pre purchase as well as the big working capital build. And the buyback was a little lighter, but you came out of the gate pretty strong quarter-to-date despite going into a big turnaround period and also prices down a bit. So if you could just talk about the cadence on the buyback side and how you think of how that interacts with the different moving pieces on cash flows? That would be helpful.

偉大的。謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於回購的節奏。在第一季度，您進行了一些預購以及大量的營運資金建設。雖然回購規模略有減少，但儘管進入了重大轉機期且價格略有下跌，但本季迄今的業績表現相當強勁。那麼，您能否談談回購方面的節奏，以及您如何看待它與現金流的不同變動部分之間的相互作用？那將會很有幫助。

Hey John, it's Kam. A couple of things I would just say on the buyback program. I think obviously, we're always continuing to monitor cash flows, inflows, outflows quarter by quarter. Obviously, in Q2 here, we're going to have a fairly heavy period for turnarounds and turnaround costs as it relates to Toledo and Foster.

嘿，約翰，我是 Kam。關於回購計畫我只想說幾件事。我認為顯然我們始終會逐季持續監控現金流、流入和流出。顯然，在第二季度，我們將面臨與托萊多和福斯特相關的周轉和周轉成本相當繁重的時期。

But what I would say is -- I just step back a little bit and just describe our buyback is going to be very flexible. It will be -- you may not necessarily see it ratable over time, but we're going to be -- we'll be flexible and we'll be value focused on that buyback.

但我想說的是——我只是稍微退一步，然後描述我們的回購將會非常靈活。隨著時間的推移，您可能不一定會看到它具有可評估性，但我們會保持靈活性，並將價值重點放在回購上。

So obviously, we stepped it up a little bit, as we talked about on the call here in April, repurchasing just under 11 million shares. So I think we'll be thoughtful about when we do it when we use that capital. But I would say at the same time, the reason we've got that flexibility is our balance sheet is strong. Although we're not right at that $4 billion floor that we talk about for debt.

因此，顯然我們加大了力度，正如我們在 4 月電話會議上談到的那樣，回購了近 1,100 萬股。所以我認為我們會認真考慮何時使用這些資金。但我想說的是，我們之所以擁有這種彈性，是因為我們的資產負債表強勁。儘管我們還沒有達到我們所說的 40 億美元的債務底線。

I don't think that's necessarily going to stop us from being value and flexible around where we see opportunities. So yes, I wouldn't necessarily hold us to some ratable form of a buyback, but I think where we can use our balance sheet and where we see value, we'll continue to assess it. But I think what I would tell you is over the long term, obviously, we want to target getting to 100% returns, but that's not necessarily what you're going to see on a quarter by quarter basis.

我認為這並不一定會阻止我們在看到機會時保持價值和靈活性。所以是的，我不一定會要求我們進行某種按比例回購，但我認為，在我們可以使用資產負債表的地方以及在我們看到價值的地方，我們會繼續評估它。但我想告訴你的是，從長遠來看，我們顯然希望實現 100% 的回報率，但這不一定是你每個季度都能看到的。

Yeah, John, I'd just add to that. One of the things that I say is we are never going to put this balance sheet at risk and we have a $4 billion leverage target for a reason. But there is a fine line between discipline and dogma. And when you have opportunities like we have with the share price being where it is, I think it's incumbent on us to take a look at that understanding that we have one of the best balance sheets in the business.

是的，約翰，我只是想補充一點。我想說的是，我們永遠不會讓資產負債表面臨風險，而且我們設定 40 億美元的槓桿目標是有原因的。但紀律和教條只有一線之隔。當你擁有像我們這樣的機會，而股價處於當前水平時，我認為我們有責任認識到，我們擁有業內最好的資產負債表之一。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Patrick O'Rourke, ATB Capital Markets.

奧羅克 (Patrick O'Rourke)，ATB 資本市場。

Good morning, Patrick.

早上好，派崔克。

Hey, good morning and thank you for taking my question. I guess maybe just to build a little bit upon the discussion we're just having with Jon. Just curious in terms of where you see the most attractive sort of application of shareholder returns right now. You've been aggressive with the buyback in May, but you also raised the dividend.

嘿，早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。我想也許只是為了在我們剛剛與喬恩的討論的基礎上更進一步。我只是好奇，您認為目前股東回報最具吸引力的應用是什麼。你們在五月積極進行回購，同時也提高了股利。

And then, of course, we've got another tranche of the preferreds that are coming up as redeemable here and how you think about that allocation? And of course, I guess there's the interplay you talked on the balance sheet of how working capital releases through the balance of the year.

當然，我們還有另一批可贖回的優先股，您如何看待這種分配？當然，我想您在資產負債表上談到了營運資本如何在年度餘額中釋放的相互作用。

Hey Jon, it's -- Patrick, it's Kam. Maybe a couple of things I would highlight. I think first off, maybe I'll start with the base dividend. I think we've been very clear. We've got different components to our shareholder return strategy.

嘿，喬恩，我是－－派崔克，我是卡姆。我想強調幾點。我想首先，也許我應該從基本股利開始。我想我們已經說得很清楚了。我們的股東回報策略由不同的部分組成。

And I would describe the base dividend as being more a commitment versus, say, more discretionary returns, which is what the buyback any and a variable dividend could be over time. But when you look at the base dividend, it's really about creating a business plan and a strategy that continues to allow us to predictably ratably grow our dividend over time. And that's all underpinned, I would say, by our five year plan that we outlined last year.

我認為基本股息更像是一種承諾，而不是更可自由支配的回報，而後者是任何回購和可變股息隨時間推移可能產生的回報。但是，當你看基本股息時，它實際上是關於製定一個商業計劃和策略，使我們能夠隨著時間的推移可預測地按比例增加股息。我想說，這一切都是基於我們去年制定的五年計畫。

So obviously, I think the dividend growth that we've given this year 11%, it's, I think, very tied to our business growth that we see, not just this year, but going into '26 and '27. And so what I would say is when you look at our growth plan over the next few years and you look at our ability to grow that dividend, I'd say we were very comfortable and confident we're going to see consistent growth over time.

因此，顯然，我認為我們今年的股息成長率為 11%，這與我們的業務成長密切相關，不僅是今年，而且是 26 年和 27 年。因此我想說的是，當你看看我們未來幾年的成長計劃，看看我們增加股息的能力時，我會說我們非常放心，並且有信心我們將會看到持續的成長。

And this increase we've given, and it's always typically in April, May, is just consistent with that long-term strategy. Last thing I would just say on the dividend is, it is -- keep in mind, it's always going to be anchored to an ability to sustain that dividend in a $45 WTI price.

我們給出的這個成長通常是在四月、五月，這與我們的長期策略是一致的。關於股息，我最後要說的是，請記住，股息始終取決於在 45 美元的 WTI 價格下維持股息的能力。

And I think as that business plan continues to deliver. We're going to have more capacity to grow that over time. When you think about the kind of interplay between other capital allocation priorities, particularly around buybacks and even prefs, I would say market conditions are continuing to move around. They're volatile. And I would say we are going to be flexible and thoughtful about where we see the most value.

我認為該商業計劃將會繼續發揮作用。隨著時間的推移，我們將擁有更大的發展能力。當你考慮其他資本配置優先事項之間的相互作用時，特別是圍繞回購甚至優先股，我會說市場狀況正在繼續變化。它們很不穩定。我想說的是，我們會靈活而周到地考慮我們認為最有價值的地方。

Obviously, we took out the preferred share Series 5 back in March -- at the end of March, which was $200 million. We've got another series due here at the end of June and another $150 million and then about $300 million next year.

顯然，我們在三月就購買了第五系列優先股——三月底價值 2 億美元。我們還有另一系列劇將於六月底上映，明年將再獲得 1.5 億美元的票房收入，然後獲得約 3 億美元的票房收入。

And I'd say long term, I would say, look, the pressures had a time and a place in our capital structure years back when Husky put them in place. I would say those drivers are probably not the same today, but at the same time, I think if we see better opportunities to deploy cash like a buyback, we may choose to do that. And that's a decision we'll make as these press get to their rate reset dates.

我想說，從長遠來看，當赫斯基幾年前將這些壓力引入我們的資本結構時，這些壓力就已經存在了。我想說的是，這些驅動因素今天可能已經不一樣了，但同時，我認為，如果我們看到更好的現金配置機會，例如回購，我們可能會選擇這樣做。當這些媒體到達其費率重置日期時，我們將做出這項決定。

Okay. Great. And then I know it's small in terms of cash flow generation here, but one thing that stood out to me in the quarter was the margin that was created in the conventional business. I think it was above substantially above the highest estimate on the street.

好的。偉大的。我知道這裡的現金流產生量很小，但本季讓我印象深刻的一件事是傳統業務創造的利潤。我認為它大大高於市場上的最高估價。

Look at the netbacks, big jump in sort of price realization there. Is that just a function of better gas pricing in the basin? And what's the sort of appetite to continue to grow that particular business as we see AECO basis improve here?

看看淨回值，那裡的價格實現大幅上漲。這僅僅是盆地內天然氣定價改善的結果嗎？當我們看到 AECO 基礎在這裡改善時，繼續發展該特定業務的興趣是什麼樣的？

So Geoff, why don't you take the first half of that, and I'll take the second.

那麼傑夫，你來負責前半部分，我來負責後半部分。

Great. Thanks, Patrick. Two parts to that. One, obviously, is we've seen gas prices do what gas prices have done. I wouldn't say that quarter one to quarter one comparison, it's meaningfully different. But when you look at Q4 to Q1, AECO price all-in was better.

偉大的。謝謝，派崔克。分為兩部分。顯然，第一，我們已經看到汽油價格改變了。我不會說第一季與第一季的比較，這是有顯著差異的。但當你將第四季與第一季進行比較時，AECO 的整體價格表現會更好。

However, the part that you need to make sure you add is that we do have some pretty valuable and significant pipeline space that moves natural gas out of the basin. I would point you to last year is the easy way for you to kind of think about it over time where that added in the order of about USD1 per MMBtu to our realizations. And so I think that's probably the first thing you should anchor on there, and I'll turn it to Jon for the balance.

然而，你需要確保補充的是，我們確實擁有一些非常寶貴且重要的管道空間，將天然氣輸送出盆地。我想指出的是，去年的情況很容易讓你思考，隨著時間的推移，我們的實現量增加了約 1 美元/百萬英熱單位。所以我認為這可能是你應該首先關注的事情，我會把它交給喬恩來平衡。

Sure. Just on the second piece, as I mentioned, Patrick, in my opening remarks, we're really focused on four things right now for the balance of 2025 and going into 2026. We are focused on our base business. We're focused on delivering growth. We're focused on the competitiveness of our downstream and we're focused on our cost structure.

當然。關於第二點，正如帕特里克在開場白中提到的那樣，我們目前真正關注的是 2025 年和 2026 年平衡的四件事。我們專注於我們的基礎業務。我們專注於實現成長。我們關注下游的競爭力，也關注我們的成本結構。

So while we really like our conventional business, we believe we've got some really interesting opportunities. It's not really a story for this quarter or this year. But at some point in the future, we'll come back and we'll talk about the conventional business more comprehensively. But right now, we are focused on the four things that I mentioned.

因此，雖然我們確實喜歡我們的傳統業務，但我們相信我們也有一些非常有趣的機會。這實際上並不是本季或今年的故事。但在未來的某個時候，我們會回來更全面地討論傳統業務。但現在，我們主要關注我提到的四件事。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

Hi, good morning. I think you discussed a number of growth projects, including Christina Lake and others. I just wanted to touch on the Foster Creek. I think you're looking to grow volumes there about 30,000. So can you help us understand what's the progress on the volume growth in Foster Creek and when should we expect it to be online?

嗨，早安。我認為您討論了許多增長項目，包括克里斯蒂娜湖和其他項目。我只是想談談福斯特溪。我認為您希望將那裡的銷量增加到 30,000 左右。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解 Foster Creek 的銷售成長進展如何以及我們何時可以預期它上線？

Yeah. So Foster Creek is really the only project we've got where we're adding steam capacity. And as I mentioned, we're adding about 80,000 barrels a day of incremental steam. And we've got some good reservoir in front of us, both to the west and to the north.

是的。因此，福斯特溪 (Foster Creek) 實際上是我們唯一增加蒸汽容量的項目。正如我所提到的，我們每天增加約 80,000 桶蒸汽。我們面前有一些優質的水庫，西邊和北邊都有。

And what you'll see from us through the rest of the year is we'll finish the installation of the steam that will happen this summer. And then we'll finish the oil and water handling by the end of the year to make that a live project going into 2026. So early on in 2026, you'll see the growth coming out of Foster Creek as well.

您將在今年剩餘的時間裡看到我們完成今年夏天的蒸汽安裝工作。然後，我們將在今年年底前完成油和水的處理，使其成為持續到 2026 年的專案。因此，到 2026 年初，您將看到 Foster Creek 也出現成長。

Perfect. And you do have a lot of turnaround in this quarter, upstream and downstream. So help us understand some of the risk planning around this to make sure these conclude on budget and on time? Thank you.

完美的。本季度，上游和下游確實出現了許多好轉。那麼，請幫助我們了解有關這方面的一些風險規劃，以確保這些規劃能夠按預算和按時完成？謝謝。

Yeah. Manav, I would describe we've been in a heavy turnaround period for the last year, and we're really coming to the end of it. Most of this ends within the next six weeks. So as I mentioned in my opening remarks, we're now complete the turnaround work at WRB, both Borger and Wood River are running online.

是的。馬納夫，我想說，去年我們處於艱難的轉型期，現在我們真的快要走到盡頭了。大部分情況將在未來六週內結束。正如我在開場白中提到的那樣，我們現在已經完成了 WRB 的轉型工作，Borger 和 Wood River 都已上線運行。

We are largely complete the turnaround at Foster Creek, and we're about in the middle of the turnaround at Toledo. On the May 15, we'll start our turnaround at Sunrise, that's a fairly low risk event. But coming out of Q2, the vast majority of our turnaround major maintenance work is done. I think we got one more turnaround in this fall at Sunrise.

我們在福斯特溪的轉變已基本完成，在托萊多的轉變也已進入中期。5 月 15 日，我們將在 Sunrise 開始轉機，這是一個風險相當低的事件。但從第二季開始，我們的絕大部分重大維護工作已經完成。我認為今年秋天我們在 Sunrise 又取得了一次轉折。

But outside of that, we're emerging from a period of heavy maintenance into a period where we don't have anywhere near the same magnitude of major maintenance going forward. So we're really looking forward to that. But if I were to tell you where we are in terms of the risk profile, the vast majority of this has now been derisked, and we're looking to kind of wind up these turnarounds and get everything back to full production.

但除此之外，我們正從大規模維護期進入一個未來不會再有同等規模大規模維護的時期。所以我們非常期待這一點。但如果我要告訴你我們目前的風險狀況，那麼絕大多數風險現在已經被消除，我們正在尋求結束這些轉變並讓一切恢復全面生產。

Menno Hulshof, TD Securities.

道明證券的 Menno Hulshof。

Hi, thanks for letting me back on. Hi again. And I'm only asking this question because I'm getting the question. It's related to your definition of market capture, which was adjusted for the quarter. I did read the footnote.

嗨，謝謝你讓我回來。大家好。我之所以會問這個問題，是因為我明白這個問題。這與您對市場佔領的定義有關，該定義已根據本季度進行了調整。我確實讀過腳註。

It looks -- my understanding here is that the inventory effect gets smoothed out and that the average market capture doesn't change over time when compared to the original definition. But maybe you could just walk us through the mechanics and the rationale for the change? Thank you.

看起來——我的理解是，與原始定義相比，庫存效應得到了平滑，平均市場佔有率不會隨時間而改變。但也許您可以向我們介紹一下這項變化的機制和理由？謝謝。

Hey Menno, it's Kam. So maybe I'll -- if you want tons of detail, I'll say, talk to IR team off-line. But just to give you a highlight. So what we've done there is the way we calculate the market capture is, it takes the two key benchmarks that drive the profitability of our US downstream business, including Group 3 in Chicago.

嘿，Menno，我是 Kam。所以也許我會——如果你想要大量細節，我會說，與 IR 團隊線下交談。但只是為了給你一個亮點。因此，我們計算市場佔有率的方式是，採用推動我們美國下游業務獲利能力的兩個關鍵基準，包括芝加哥的第三組。

And so that that percentage you see there is a percentage of a blended crack of those two benchmarks. And this quarter, what we've done is we've now adjusted it for what we describe as inventory holding gains and losses or FIFO impact so that you can actually see what the underlying business performance is absent of some of those inventory movements that you typically see because of FIFO accounting.

因此，您看到的百分比是這兩個基準混合裂縫的百分比。本季度，我們所做的就是根據我們所描述的庫存持有損益或先進先出 (FIFO) 影響對其進行了調整，以便您能夠真正看到由於先進先出 (FIFO) 會計而通常看到的一些庫存變動所導致的基礎業務績效的缺失。

So -- and when you look at our supplemental information, you can see there, we've adjusted it going backwards, so you can see what the impact of that is normalized for FIFO.

所以 - 當您查看我們的補充資訊時，您會看到，我們已經對其進行了向後調整，因此您可以看到這對 FIFO 的影響是標準化的。

So the intent there is just to make it more comparable with what you see with the US refiners in those regions.

因此，其目的只是為了使其與這些地區的美國煉油廠的情況更具可比性。

Thank you. I know that was a border line modeling question. So I appreciate your taking the time to ask that.

謝謝。我知道這是一個邊界建模問題。我很感謝您抽出時間來詢問這個問題。

That's okay.

沒關係。

All right. Thanks Menno.

好的。謝謝 Menno。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Chris Varcoe, Calgary Herald.

克里斯·瓦爾科，卡加利先驅報。

Hi, Jon. Thanks for taking the question. With the federal election now over, what is the status of talks between the pathway alliance and the federal and provincial governments? And I guess, how far apart or how close are the three sides?

你好，喬恩。感謝您回答這個問題。聯邦選舉現已結束，路徑聯盟與聯邦和省政府之間的談判進展如何？我猜，這三條邊相距多遠或多近？

Chris, we're kind of in a bit of a holding pattern right now. The election has only just happened. And what we've always maintained is pathways in the project projects underneath that are a priority for us. And we need those two levels of government to come together and create a path forward for us where those projects can get done and the industry can remain competitive.

克里斯，我們現在有點處於等待狀態。選舉剛結束。我們始終堅持認為，專案路徑是我們的優先事項。我們需要兩級政府齊心協力，為我們創造一條前進的道路，使這些項目能夠完成，並使該行業保持競爭力。

So there's not much in the way of new news on that. But it's something that we maintain as a priority, and we're hopeful we can get back talking at both levels of government fairly quickly.

因此，關於這方面的新消息並不多。但這是我們優先考慮的事情，我們希望能夠很快恢復兩級政府之間的對話。

Do you expect the ability to be able to order pipe for the project in calendar 2025?

您是否預計能夠在 2025 年為該專案訂購管道？

I mean, Chris, that really all depends on where we get to with those two levels of government. We've been really clear about is that we need a path forward and the financial framework that keeps us competitive and allows us to move forward with that.

我的意思是，克里斯，這實際上完全取決於我們如何管理這兩個層級的政府。我們非常清楚的是，我們需要一條前進的道路和一個讓我們保持競爭力並讓我們繼續前進的財務框架。

Alex Bill, allNewfoundlandLabrador.

亞歷克斯比爾 (Alex Bill)，全名紐芬蘭和拉布拉多。

Good morning.

早安.

Hi Alex.

你好，亞歷克斯。

Hi there. Yeah. I am following up on reports of layoffs at this announced recently to staff. And I'm asking how much of that is captured in Newfoundland and whether that has to do with sort of transition of West White Rose or broader economic principles?

你好呀。是的。我正在關注該公司最近向員工宣布的裁員報告。我想問的是，紐芬蘭省實現了多少這樣的成就，這是否與西白玫瑰的轉型或更廣泛的經濟原則有關？

One of the things we haven't done, Alex, is talk about numbers or talk about locations where we've seen job loss. And we do that out of respect for the families and respect for the employees. This is a very private matter, and we want to be -- or treat people with dignity and respect.

亞歷克斯，我們還沒有做的事情之一就是談論數字或談論我們看到失業的地點。我們這樣做是出於對家人和員工的尊重。這是非常私人的問題，我們希望以尊嚴和尊重對待他人。

What I would tell you is, as a company, we are getting to the end of an investment cycle in this business, and our capital spending is decreasing. And consistent with that, the amount of work that we have to do is decreasing.

我想告訴你們的是，作為一家公司，我們在這個行業的投資週期即將結束，我們的資本支出正在減少。與此一致的是，我們要做的工作量正在減少。

And that means we've got to readjust our labor force to make it fit for purpose and ensure that we are competitive as an industry. So I don't have an exact number for you nor would I probably give it to you if I added to top of mind, just to be respectful of the people that are involved in this.

這意味著我們必須重新調整我們的勞動力，使其適應目標並確保我們作為一個行業具有競爭力。因此，我沒有確切的數字可以告訴你，如果我把它加到首要考慮因素中，我可能也不會告訴你，只是為了尊重參與此事的人。

And there are no further questions registered at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Jon McKenzie.

目前還沒有其他問題。現在我想將會議交還給喬恩·麥肯齊先生。

Great. And thank you, operator. So this concludes the conference call. Thank you for joining us today. We really appreciate your interest in the company, and have a great day, everybody. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝你，接線生。電話會議到此結束。感謝您今天加入我們。我們非常感謝您對公司的關注，並祝大家有個愉快的一天。謝謝。

This program, you may all disconnect. Thank you for participating in today's conference and have a great day.

這個程序，你們可以全部斷開。感謝您參加今天的會議並祝您度過愉快的一天。